Speaker 1: Good evening, everybody. Welcome to our election live stream. We
Speaker 1: have an amazing show for all of you today, as
Speaker 1: you can all see. I hope this is working, Crystal.
Speaker 1: So what do we have today? Indeed, we do a
Speaker 1: few things to talk about. There will be results, of course,
Speaker 1: coming in all night. We'll be doing our analysis here
Speaker 1: with Marshall and with Kyle. We have the Counterpoints crew,
Speaker 1: Ryan and Emily coming in later. So we're very excited
Speaker 1: about that. We have reporters on the ground from Status KUP,
Speaker 1: both with Team Oz in Pennsylvania and also with Team
Speaker 1: Fetterman in Pennsylvania. We've got great election like data geek
Speaker 1: analysis from j Miles Coleman later on. So we'll be
Speaker 1: tracking all of those things and more. Before we get
Speaker 1: to any of that, though, I have the biggest announcement
Speaker 1: of the night, which is that for those of you
Speaker 1: watching this live stream, handing out a little bit of
Speaker 1: a discount. That's right, premium subscription. We've got the ten
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Speaker 1: made possible because of our premium subs, many of whom
Speaker 1: are watching right now, what christ will just describe people
Speaker 1: on the ground having our full control room back there,
Speaker 1: Marshall Kyle, the Counterpoints crew. It costs a lot of
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Speaker 1: this but for the future and given the imminent possible
Speaker 1: Trump announcement, if you can help us build up, it's
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Speaker 1: us so much in terms of planning. So thank you
Speaker 1: all so much to the existing ones who are watching,
Speaker 1: and the link is there for those of you have
Speaker 1: the kindness in your hearts. But with that, why don't
Speaker 1: we kick it off? What do we know? All right?
Speaker 1: So first we are already getting some results out of
Speaker 1: Indiana and Kentucky. Their polls closed at six There aren't
Speaker 1: really many competitive races there, so there isn't a lot
Speaker 1: to read into those results just yet. But right now
Speaker 1: seven pm, there are some key states that's polls whose
Speaker 1: polls just closed, including Georgia. Also Virginia which does have
Speaker 1: doesn't have any state wide races, but does have some
Speaker 1: like key bell Weather races, including the district that Kyle
Speaker 1: and I live in at this point, so Abigail Spanberger
Speaker 1: that one. So we'll be keeping a close eye there.
Speaker 1: Seven thirty we get all of North Carolina, Ohio, West Virginia,
Speaker 1: parts of New Hampshire, so you can see right away
Speaker 1: we'll be starting to get some election results in that
Speaker 1: will start to tell us what the night is going
Speaker 1: to look like. Eight PM you get a whole slew
Speaker 1: of states, including Florida, including Pennsylvania is At eight, you've
Speaker 1: got Texas. At eight you've got New Jersey, Kansas, and Michigan,
Speaker 1: a whole lot others also closing at eight. Then at
Speaker 1: eight thirty you get all of Arkansas. I know a
Speaker 1: lot of folks out there really waiting on those Arkansas
Speaker 1: results with baited breath. Nine PM, no offense, Arkansas, lovely
Speaker 1: staying from nine pm. We got Colorado, we got Io,
Speaker 1: we got Kansas, Louisiana, Michigan comes in at nine, New York,
Speaker 1: which Democrats have ended up being surprisingly kind of nervous about. Wisconsin,
Speaker 1: and some of Arizona we start to get at nine,
Speaker 1: and at ten we get all of Arizona, all of Nevada,
Speaker 1: and a few other states. Oregon starts to come in
Speaker 1: then as well, and then we go on from there,
Speaker 1: so you can see we're getting key results throughout the night.
Speaker 1: I think it's important to put in the warning that
Speaker 1: there have already been results of some problems in Arizona, Pennsylvania.
Speaker 1: I think, in particular, we expect the results to be
Speaker 1: relatively slow going. You might have an effect in some
Speaker 1: of these states same as we did in twenty twenty
Speaker 1: where you have like the red mirage because you now
Speaker 1: have such a partisan divide in terms of how voters
Speaker 1: cast their ballots. So if the election day votes are
Speaker 1: counted first, you may see a huge red wave that
Speaker 1: then Democrats sort of eat into. You might see the reverse.
Speaker 1: You might see the mail in ballots come in first,
Speaker 1: in which case you might have a huge Democratic margin.
Speaker 1: So I would just say, you know, hold tight, wait
Speaker 1: until the results all come in, and we will see
Speaker 1: where this all ends out. Yeah, I just want to
Speaker 1: reiterate that Pennsylvania, in particular, they've already come out of
Speaker 1: the Secretary of State said we likely will not the
Speaker 1: results for a couple of days, which is kind of
Speaker 1: crazy if you ask me the same thing. In Arizona,
Speaker 1: they were saying around Arizona for Nevada as well. Also,
Speaker 1: I should remind people I actually didn't even know this.
Speaker 1: We were doing research, which is that the Red states
Speaker 1: in the Midwest, or the Purple States, if you will,
Speaker 1: many of them have enacted loss Crystal where the early
Speaker 1: vote is not actually allowed to be counted until today, right,
Speaker 1: and so even though many of those votes and ballots
Speaker 1: are banked, they're not allowed to count them, which would
Speaker 1: lead to the so called reg mirage phenomenal the year,
Speaker 1: same deal in twenty twenty as we had then, and
Speaker 1: we went through an excruciating detail which states had which laws,
Speaker 1: but just suffice it to say some of the key
Speaker 1: states have that similar dynamic going on. Okay, So Soger
Speaker 1: and I on the show yesterday we gave you kind
Speaker 1: of our analysis of what we think is going to happen.
Speaker 1: So I thought we could check in with our friends
Speaker 1: here Cala Marshall find out what you guys think for
Speaker 1: the night. Marshall, since i'm you know, buiased towards this one,
Speaker 1: I'll go ahead and kick it off to you. What
Speaker 1: is your overall expectation. I think we all probably expect
Speaker 1: Republicans to take the House do you think do you
Speaker 1: think it's a huge margin. Do you think this is
Speaker 1: like red tsunami situation, red waves situation, or do Democrats
Speaker 1: somehow manage to cobble together their control of the Senate.
Speaker 1: I'm not a big ocean guy, but yeah, whatever, A
Speaker 1: moderate tsunami is tywhoon. Yeah, moderate red tsunami. The take
Speaker 1: it's going to be a little less hardcore than our
Speaker 1: friends on like conservative Twitter are saying, yeah, but it's
Speaker 1: still going to be a really devastating the term. Yeah, yeah,
Speaker 1: what do you think? I mean, I kind of agree
Speaker 1: with Marshall. I will say that coming into this election
Speaker 1: it was weird because this was the first election where
Speaker 1: I really felt like I had zero intuition about which
Speaker 1: way it was going to go. I remember back in
Speaker 1: twenty sixteen, I was one of the people who was
Speaker 1: kind of sounding the alarm when it was clear there
Speaker 1: was going to be Hillary versus Trump, because I felt
Speaker 1: like he could kind of hammer away on all of
Speaker 1: her weaknesses effectively. But in this race, there's just so
Speaker 1: many variables that I keep bouncing around in my head.
Speaker 1: On the one hand, you think, look inflation, inflation, inflation, crime, crime, crime,
Speaker 1: all the Republicans have to do is repeat that until
Speaker 1: the end of time, and then you know, effectively they
Speaker 1: could win. But then on the other hand, Roe versus
Speaker 1: WAD was overturned, and that's like a that's a huge deal.
Speaker 1: And you know, you also have, I think this pretty
Speaker 1: open extremism on the right that's different from previous iterations
Speaker 1: on the right because about fifty three percent of the
Speaker 1: Republican candidates either deny or question the election, and I
Speaker 1: think that might actually weigh on voters. And then you
Speaker 1: also have what I think are some pretty significant accomplishments
Speaker 1: from the Body administration from my perspective in terms of
Speaker 1: my ideology, because you have student loan debt reduction, partnering
Speaker 1: non violent weed defenders. You have the IRA, which, granted,
Speaker 1: even though I think it was a weak piece of
Speaker 1: legislation overall compared to build back better, you still had
Speaker 1: some great provisions in that like fifteen percent corporate minimum
Speaker 1: tax rate, one percent tax on stock buybacks, billions dollars
Speaker 1: more for Obamacare, which will give millions more Americans health care.
Speaker 1: So you have this like amalgamation of factors which just
Speaker 1: makes it a big question mark. So I kind of
Speaker 1: agree with Marshall that ultimately, if he had a gun
Speaker 1: to my head and said you have to pick something,
Speaker 1: you can't be agnostic when I want to be agnostic.
Speaker 1: But what I would say is probably Republicans fifty one
Speaker 1: or fifty two seats in the Senate, and they're going
Speaker 1: to take the House, but it's not going to be
Speaker 1: as big as like the twenty ten Tea Party wave.
Speaker 1: So Amy Walter over at cook Political actually had a
Speaker 1: good in terms of the like wave terminology. She had
Speaker 1: a good way of breaking down the three possibilities for
Speaker 1: the night. So one, she said, the red tsunami, which
Speaker 1: is like Republicans sweep all of the toss up races,
Speaker 1: there's a huge wave in the house. You know, they
Speaker 1: gain control of the Senate quite handily, talking about something
Speaker 1: like twenty ten, right analogous to twenty ten or two
Speaker 1: thousand and six for the Democrats. The next would be
Speaker 1: what she called wavy or maybe like wavesh which is
Speaker 1: sort of the scenario that I think you guys are
Speaker 1: laying out and that I also sort of envision, which
Speaker 1: is the Republicans take control of the Senate, but it's
Speaker 1: sort of like just barely. They have essentially matched or
Speaker 1: maybe a little bit of an enthusiasm edge over the
Speaker 1: Democrats and Independence break their way, but it's not overwhelming.
Speaker 1: And then you fall in that mark of like maybe
Speaker 1: twenty to thirty seats in terms of the House, and
Speaker 1: then you have the red ripple, which is like the
Speaker 1: House margins are really held down. They aren't able ultimately
Speaker 1: to take the Senate, or it's very close, or it's
Speaker 1: fifty to fifty again, or it comes down to a
Speaker 1: runoff in Georgia, which I also think is definitely a possibility.
Speaker 1: So I think those are like the realistic possibilities that
Speaker 1: are kind of on the table at this point. So
Speaker 1: we will read the tea leaves even though you're not
Speaker 1: supposed to, and just let me. Let me also just
Speaker 1: before I read. These exit polls oftentimes mean absolutely nothing.
Speaker 1: They can be inaccurate. They are also all that we
Speaker 1: have at this moment. Okay, so what do we have?
Speaker 1: And we were all looking at this it's a little
Speaker 1: bit interesting. So this is from the CNN exit poles.
Speaker 1: Here's what they say, feeling the way that things are
Speaker 1: going in the United States. Enthusiastic five percent, satisfied, percent dissatisfied,
Speaker 1: thirty nine percent, angry thirty four percent. What is your
Speaker 1: opinion of Joe Biden as president? This is surprising, Crystal
Speaker 1: Approve forty five percent, disapprove fifty four percent. That is
Speaker 1: much higher approval rating. That's actually for a long time
Speaker 1: not bad, yep. I mean, you know, if you're president
Speaker 1: of the United States and you're going into the midterms,
Speaker 1: you never want to see your approval rating underwater. But
Speaker 1: forty five percent is on the higher end of what
Speaker 1: he's been getting. You know, it tells you at least
Speaker 1: in the composition of this exit pole, which again you
Speaker 1: should take with like a million grains of salt and
Speaker 1: basically discard entirely, but at least in the composition of
Speaker 1: this exit pole, they're slightly more favorable to him than
Speaker 1: what poles have been showing recently. And we also have
Speaker 1: seen a pretty consistent trend of the Democratic Senate candidates
Speaker 1: out running Joe Biden. Not so much because I mean
Speaker 1: some of them I do think genuinely are good candidates.
Speaker 1: Mark Kelly I would put in that category. I think
Speaker 1: Warnock I would put in that category as well. Fetterman
Speaker 1: I put in that category until he had a stroke.
Speaker 1: But also because the Republicans nominated a bunch of psychos
Speaker 1: that has caused, you know, some problems for them on
Speaker 1: the other side. So I think that's why Democrats at
Speaker 1: the Senate level have kind of consistently outperformed Biden's approval ratings.
Speaker 1: So when you see him at forty five percent, if
Speaker 1: that was accurate, which is like again a gigantic, gigantic,
Speaker 1: if that's word, is doing a lot of work there,
Speaker 1: then if your Democrats are going, Okay, we're in the ballgame.
Speaker 1: We got a shot, right, And I think, actually, I'll
Speaker 1: kick it to Marshall and to Kyle on this one.
Speaker 1: This is I found absolutely fascinating. Was your us hout
Speaker 1: vote to quote support Biden eighteen percent, oppose Biden thirty
Speaker 1: two percent, Biden not a factor forty eight percent. And
Speaker 1: this also impacts one, which is that the effect of
Speaker 1: Biden's policies on the country hurting forty six, helping thirty six,
Speaker 1: not making a difference sixteen Did any of those numbers
Speaker 1: stick out to you? For me? It was Biden not
Speaker 1: a factor. What do you think, Marshall? Biden not a factor?
Speaker 1: And I think to Crystal what you were saying about
Speaker 1: how Biden's polls are decent actually for a president in
Speaker 1: this period. I think they're a little better than what
Speaker 1: Trump's were yes during the twenty eighteen mid terms. This
Speaker 1: gets at the difficult of trying to read too much
Speaker 1: into these election results for twenty twenty four. The second
Speaker 1: it becomes personal, that is going to scramble and this
Speaker 1: doesn't feel personal right now out of a repudiation level,
Speaker 1: if you're looking at these houses and candidates, I wanted
Speaker 1: to pick up one thing, Kyle, you said, that's interesting
Speaker 1: here why it's hard to get a big narrative about
Speaker 1: this election, the democracy, the election integrity claims, like the
Speaker 1: races where it's making an effect or not like Pennsylvania,
Speaker 1: Doug Mastrigano, he's probably going to lose tonight because he's
Speaker 1: seen as an extreme because he is an extremist. It's
Speaker 1: not just like a perception. I think it's actually extreme
Speaker 1: on election denial issues. But Carrie Lake Arizona, if she
Speaker 1: at the same time, is not being punished for it.
Speaker 1: So I'm interested in not just like dunking on people
Speaker 1: saying like, oh, why are you talking about democracies so much?
Speaker 1: Why does it work in certain races? And not in others.
Speaker 1: I'm curious, like if you have a theory for that, Kyle.
Speaker 1: I don't have a theory for that. But I also
Speaker 1: find it fascinating, like you do, Crystal. You bring something
Speaker 1: up all the time that I think is really interesting,
Speaker 1: which is what our voter is going to prioritize, like
Speaker 1: you aading individual candidates or just like the national mood,
Speaker 1: because in this instance, those things are totally at odds,
Speaker 1: they are completely contradictory. If you go like individual candidates,
Speaker 1: you're going to look at the carry Lakes, You're going
Speaker 1: to look at the Mastriano's, You're going to look at
Speaker 1: look even odds, I would argue, and you're going to
Speaker 1: be like, oh, I don't like that. But if you
Speaker 1: just go national mood, I mean historically, and I actually
Speaker 1: have the numbers up here, I wanted to share this
Speaker 1: with you guys. Historically, it is the case that, at
Speaker 1: least in recent American history, it is the case that
Speaker 1: you have these backlash pendulum elections. So in nineteen ninety four,
Speaker 1: Bill Clinton had a forty four percent approval rating, which
Speaker 1: by the way, is the exact same approve rating Biden
Speaker 1: has today. In the average of polls, he lost fifty
Speaker 1: four seats ye had Barack Obama had a forty five
Speaker 1: percent approval rating, he lost sixty three seats in twenty ten.
Speaker 1: And then of course twenty eighteen, Trump had a forty
Speaker 1: six percent approval rating and he lost forty seats. So
Speaker 1: we're seeing Biden with a forty four percent approval rating.
Speaker 1: Is he going to lose as many as Bill Clinton
Speaker 1: did have the exact same approval rating or is it
Speaker 1: going to be less. Part of why it could be
Speaker 1: less could is because you know, I was actually on
Speaker 1: the ballot in twenty ten running a hopeless campaign as
Speaker 1: a Democrat for Congress and very conservative area in like
Speaker 1: the Tea Party wave year, and so I remember it
Speaker 1: quite well. And it wasn't just that Republicans were super energized,
Speaker 1: and they were. It was also that Dems were depressed.
Speaker 1: You know, they had so much hope for the Obama era,
Speaker 1: and they had so much you know, they really believed
Speaker 1: in the sky, and they really thought that things were
Speaker 1: going to change in the country, was going to be transformed,
Speaker 1: it was going to be this whole thing. And then
Speaker 1: when he's a disappointment, and you know, the dreams didn't
Speaker 1: all come true. There was a huge depression in terms
Speaker 1: of the Democratic vote. Democrats are very highly motivated. I
Speaker 1: mean Republicans might be more motivated, and I think independence
Speaker 1: seemed to at least in the most recent polls have
Speaker 1: swung towards Republicans for a variety of issues. I would
Speaker 1: lay that, you know, primarily in terms of the economy,
Speaker 1: but I think crime has been a part of that
Speaker 1: as well. But you do have perhaps a match in
Speaker 1: terms of Democratic enthusiasm Republican enthusiasm. That's why I don't
Speaker 1: know that it'll be the blowout tsunami wave that you
Speaker 1: saw in You're like twenty ten. I'll tell you another
Speaker 1: thing that I was thinking about today in terms of
Speaker 1: what you were just saying, Kyle, and like the candidate
Speaker 1: quality question versus the national mood question. To me, the
Speaker 1: House races are almost one hundred percent just national mood. Absolutely,
Speaker 1: people don't really pay attention to the congressional candidates. There's
Speaker 1: not enough ad spending, Like you don't really know the
Speaker 1: ins and outs of who they are and whether you
Speaker 1: like them or not, and what they've done or what
Speaker 1: they want to do. That to me is almost completely
Speaker 1: just national mood. At the Senate level, you get a
Speaker 1: little bit more of a sense of these people as
Speaker 1: characters and as individuals, And so I could see a
Speaker 1: scenario where it really is kind of a democratic blood
Speaker 1: bath in the House, and yet it's not quite as
Speaker 1: ugly a picture for them in the Senate. And that
Speaker 1: really is again less attestament, I think, to any sort
Speaker 1: of democratic messaging or strategy or whatever. But the fact
Speaker 1: that Republicans have really, you know, tested the willingness of
Speaker 1: voters to see how far they will go. And there
Speaker 1: were some numbers out of Georgia Soccer, I don't know
Speaker 1: if you have them in front of you, exit poll
Speaker 1: numbers asking voters what they thought of herschel Walker versus
Speaker 1: Rafael Warnock, and they asked in particular like who shows
Speaker 1: good judgment? And it was overwhelmingly like people felt like
Speaker 1: Warnock had much better judgment than herschel Walker does. So
Speaker 1: clearly there has been an assessment of their character. Now
Speaker 1: is that determinant of their vote? Nobody knows, But I
Speaker 1: can see the candidate quality piece being at least somewhat
Speaker 1: more significant at the Senate level than it is at
Speaker 1: the House lode. To me, this is the ultimate test
Speaker 1: of that political science study which had about a decade ago,
Speaker 1: which is does political quality? Does candidate quality matter at all?
Speaker 1: And in general overwhelmingly people continue to tell us no. Now,
Speaker 1: as Ryan very aptly pointed out on the show, we
Speaker 1: have never had the candidates that we had of this
Speaker 1: titan special sort. It's a true testry. So what you
Speaker 1: alluded to, I have it in front of me. Who
Speaker 1: shows good judgment? For again, exit polls taken with a
Speaker 1: massive grain of solid don't if it's true or not,
Speaker 1: but it's all we got. Only Warnock forty six percent
Speaker 1: shows good judgment. Only Walker shows good judgment twenty eight percent,
Speaker 1: both at five neither at eighteen. Another I think interesting one.
Speaker 1: You know in that regard around Georgia is around the
Speaker 1: extreme is an issue. They're like, do you think that
Speaker 1: Herschel Walker is extreme or not? And in that one,
Speaker 1: I mean you didn't see. Sorry, it was fairly close.
Speaker 1: It was like in front of me Warnock had actually
Speaker 1: was forty three percent nine percent for oh, I got
Speaker 1: it almost right forty four and thirty nine percent right.
Speaker 1: So only Warnock, they've say is too extreme forty four percent,
Speaker 1: only Walker thirty nine neither at nine and both at five,
Speaker 1: which is just such an amazing testament to candidate sorry
Speaker 1: to partisan polarization in terms of nobody says both. It
Speaker 1: really is either this guy or my guy, neither or
Speaker 1: I find that a little bit interesting as to whether
Speaker 1: it even matters or not. I mean, I think it's
Speaker 1: worth going over the five thirty eight elements. So why
Speaker 1: don't we go ahead, guys number two, Let's go and
Speaker 1: put that up there on the screen. So we had
Speaker 1: the five thirty eight average polled, and what we'll put
Speaker 1: up there on the screen shows it at fifty five
Speaker 1: to forty five. Now it's actually adjusted so that one
Speaker 1: shows fifty eight to forty two. Since that actually was made,
Speaker 1: it is now actually at fifty nine to forty one
Speaker 1: in terms of their percentage chances. I think it's also
Speaker 1: worth going race by race as to what the most
Speaker 1: razor type ones are according to their polling average weight.
Speaker 1: Adam Laxalt and Cortes Masso, they have a fifty one
Speaker 1: in one hundred in Nevada. For the audience which is watching,
Speaker 1: Ryan and Emily will be on at that time, but
Speaker 1: we really are not going to know a lot on
Speaker 1: term around eleven pm Eastern time, Oz Fetterman, though they
Speaker 1: switched Chrystal much more in the OZ direction. Just in
Speaker 1: the last twenty four hours. They have it now at
Speaker 1: fifty seven percent chance of Oz winning given the last
Speaker 1: polls that all came in his favor. For Warnock, they
Speaker 1: actually have it at sixty three percent for herschel Walker,
Speaker 1: which I found interesting. Blake Masters they have losing. They
Speaker 1: have a sixty six percent chance in favor of Mark Kelly.
Speaker 1: That's kind of an interesting one. I thought it'd be. Yeah,
Speaker 1: it is. I mean curious what you think, Marshall. Something
Speaker 1: I floated on the show was I think the strength
Speaker 1: of Kerry Lake's candidacy visa v. Katie Hobbs, who is
Speaker 1: just objectively like a very bad candidate, didn't do the debate,
Speaker 1: was hiding may actually be the saving grace for Black Masters,
Speaker 1: because the split ticket voting is just it's a rare
Speaker 1: phenomenon in the year twenty twenty two. Yeah, there's a
Speaker 1: lot of that. And I think the other thing that's
Speaker 1: clear here is christ who said this Mark Kelly is
Speaker 1: a good Democratic candidate state like Arizona. Yeah, so you're
Speaker 1: just really seeing that this is where the to your point, anecdotally,
Speaker 1: I just can't reject the candidate quality story here, but
Speaker 1: it seems to be the story of this year right now.
Speaker 1: And I think the other thing that I want to
Speaker 1: just pick up on real quick, Crystal, because I think
Speaker 1: it's important to know from people when you're talking about
Speaker 1: twenty ten versus twenty twenty two. The difference in twenty
Speaker 1: ten is like you're not with door knocking. Yeah, you're
Speaker 1: kind of having to walk around and be like, oh, like,
Speaker 1: here are all these things that are happening, and here's
Speaker 1: why this Obama Jenit thing is actually kind of good,
Speaker 1: and that's kind of difficult to do Democrats, like I'm
Speaker 1: coming from Texas, so Democrats are energized, and in weird ways,
Speaker 1: they're acting like they're not in control right now. So
Speaker 1: if you're a Democrat, you control the House, you could
Speaker 1: roll a cent you control the presidency. It does not
Speaker 1: feel like that in the country right now. And if
Speaker 1: you're looking where the Biden administration has really struggled, it's
Speaker 1: the contradiction there. You both own it. But if you're
Speaker 1: looking at Supreme Court decision, if you're looking at the
Speaker 1: student loan issue, the Supreme Court itself too. You don't
Speaker 1: feel like you're in control. So that's going to be
Speaker 1: confounding variable for the next bit. Let me give you
Speaker 1: guys an interesting data point on Pennsylvania, because I know
Speaker 1: that the polls now show that Oz is up and
Speaker 1: he closed the gap. I mean, there was a while
Speaker 1: where Fetterman was way up. OZ closed the gap, and
Speaker 1: now he's up at least according to the five thirty
Speaker 1: eight numbers, which is like the average of the polls.
Speaker 1: CBS Pennsylvania exit poll, which one of these issues mattered
Speaker 1: most to your vote, Abortion is number one thirty six percent.
Speaker 1: Very interesting behind that is inflation twenty after that. I
Speaker 1: was shocked by that too. I was very shocked by that. Well,
Speaker 1: whether it's true or not, you know, that's that's the
Speaker 1: real question. I think. Let's go ahead put number six
Speaker 1: up there. We've got the Pennsylvania RCP average that shows
Speaker 1: us exactly what we're working with. Then why the five
Speaker 1: thirty eight average moved in that direction? So we have
Speaker 1: RCP and five there eight there. What they show is
Speaker 1: that Oz in the final average is at up by
Speaker 1: only point one. I mean, that's not a margin that
Speaker 1: you necessarily a good one. You've got plus two, plus two,
Speaker 1: plus three, and then you had that very strange Marris
Speaker 1: poll which we talked about on our last show, Crystal,
Speaker 1: with Fetterman up by six points. I mean, look on
Speaker 1: that one, I think it's difficult, which is that I
Speaker 1: do tend though to come back on Biden may be
Speaker 1: more important in Pennsylvania, given that he has such a
Speaker 1: low approval rating. Well here is rec going well, going
Speaker 1: back to like the whole candidate quality question, which is
Speaker 1: kind of central to what ultimately happens tonight, right, because
Speaker 1: if you're going by the fundamentals, the Democrats are done.
Speaker 1: They're toast, it's over, it's ugly. You know, Republicans are
Speaker 1: winning like fifty six seats in the Senate. The only
Speaker 1: reason Democrats really have a shot is because there are
Speaker 1: some questions about these candidates. I mean Pennsylvania at this point,
Speaker 1: I at the beginning of this race, I really thought
Speaker 1: Fetterman was not just like an Okay can. I really
Speaker 1: thought he was one of the best Democratic candidates in
Speaker 1: the country because he had that just natural, authentic everyman appeal.
Speaker 1: There's no doubt about it. The fact that he had
Speaker 1: a stroke really made things challenging for him. I'm in
Speaker 1: the debate performance it was very difficult to watch. But
Speaker 1: Oz is also a terrible candidate, like need we remind
Speaker 1: every one of the whole crew de Tae situation and
Speaker 1: how he was completely at the beginning of the campaign,
Speaker 1: especially the Fetterman team did an amazing job of reminding
Speaker 1: people like, this guy's a carpetbager, and he's an elitist,
Speaker 1: and he's out of touch. And even post stroke, Oz's
Speaker 1: approval ratings have been abysmal, and Fetterman's have been really solid.
Speaker 1: Like people like John Fetterman. They may have questions about
Speaker 1: whether he's really up for the Senate now or not,
Speaker 1: but they generally like John Fetterman more than they like
Speaker 1: doctor Oz, So that one I sort of put as
Speaker 1: like a wash in terms of candidate quality. But I
Speaker 1: think the governor's race in Pennsylvania you're talking about, well,
Speaker 1: what's different there versus the governor's race in Arizona. Since
Speaker 1: you have two extreme election deniers on the Republican ticket,
Speaker 1: and one of them, Carry Lake, seems very likely to
Speaker 1: win and the other one, Doug Mastriano, seems very likely
Speaker 1: to lose. There, I think candidate quality really is the
Speaker 1: only thing you can point to, and in my opinion,
Speaker 1: candidate quality is actually more important for governor's races, which
Speaker 1: tend to be somewhat less partisan. You see a place
Speaker 1: like Vermont elect a Republican. You see a place like
Speaker 1: Maryland elector Republican. You say a place like Kentucky elect
Speaker 1: a Democrat. So you have a bit more of voters
Speaker 1: who are open to either party at the gubernatorial level,
Speaker 1: because it's less about like these hard partisan who's going
Speaker 1: to control the Senate kind of questions. And in Mastriana,
Speaker 1: you have a very poor candidate who's also very extreme.
Speaker 1: In Joshapiro, who's the Democratic choice, you actually have a
Speaker 1: very good candidate who has proven himself to the state
Speaker 1: at a statewide level. He's taken on big corporations, he's
Speaker 1: taken on big pharma, he took on the Catholic Church,
Speaker 1: and there seems to be an awareness of that among
Speaker 1: the elector and I think that's part of why he's
Speaker 1: had a consistent edge going into election night, and maybe
Speaker 1: that's something that helps Fetterman here down the stretch. On
Speaker 1: the other hand, to your point saga about you know,
Speaker 1: Arizona at the gubernatorial level, Katie Hobbs, the Democrat, has
Speaker 1: been very lackluster. She was very obviously too scared to
Speaker 1: debate Carrie Lake. Carry Lake is crazy, but she is
Speaker 1: very talented and charismatic on camera, She's, you know, a
Speaker 1: television personality. She knows what she's doing. She comes across
Speaker 1: as very confident, and so I think in those situations,
Speaker 1: the only thing you can really point to there is
Speaker 1: you have two very different slates of candidates and candidate
Speaker 1: quality situation. Great question for the panel around Fetterman, Chris,
Speaker 1: you're kind of hinting at this. How much did the
Speaker 1: peak Fetterman June to July online dunking matter. It felt
Speaker 1: like it really mattered at the time, so once again
Speaker 1: the crititay ads the brilliant memes. Did it matter at
Speaker 1: all or was it a wash? I think it mattered.
Speaker 1: I think it was the substance of the dunking because
Speaker 1: the original argument was basically like a carpetbag argument. He's
Speaker 1: a carpetbagger, plus he's a massive elitist, and they kind
Speaker 1: of hammered away on that endlessly. But then I do
Speaker 1: feel like they sort of lost those the specific nature
Speaker 1: of those attacks moving forward, and then of course the stroke,
Speaker 1: you know, yeah, throws a wrench into the whole thing.
Speaker 1: But I mean, I do think I do think that mattered.
Speaker 1: But Chris, so let me ask you about Carrie Lakeby,
Speaker 1: is you know I've been thinking about this. Is it
Speaker 1: really just like the charisma thing? Because the fact of
Speaker 1: the matter is, if you like take what she says
Speaker 1: and just like write it down and hand it to somebody,
Speaker 1: people be like, whoa, what is this? This is wild?
Speaker 1: But is it just like that, like you said, she's
Speaker 1: good on camera, she delivers stuff. Well, is that enough?
Speaker 1: Is that really all that matters? And what does that
Speaker 1: say about us? If that's the case? Donald Trump is
Speaker 1: president of the United States. So listen, I can't claim
Speaker 1: to be like really deep into the weeds of Arizona
Speaker 1: politics to say for sure, if there weren't things that,
Speaker 1: like Katie Hobbes did that piss people off other than
Speaker 1: not doing the debate or like that people actually like
Speaker 1: about carry lakes platform, I really don't know. But from
Speaker 1: at the surface level, it appears to me that the
Speaker 1: fact that she is super confident, charismatic, you know, presents
Speaker 1: herself well, super comfortable on television seems to be doing
Speaker 1: a lot for her here. And just to go back
Speaker 1: the Oz Fetterman question of whether those dunks mattered, I
Speaker 1: think they really defined Oz in a very negative way
Speaker 1: from the beginning, and he's never recovered. I mean he's
Speaker 1: still I'm looking at this poll from five days ago,
Speaker 1: he's underwater favorability rating upside down, only thirty five percent
Speaker 1: have a favorable rating of him to fifty two percent unfavorable,
Speaker 1: whereas Fetterman is still above water in terms of his
Speaker 1: favorability rating. So to the extent that Fetterman is still
Speaker 1: in this fight, and you know, my prediction was that
Speaker 1: ultimately Oz is actually going to pull it out. So
Speaker 1: I you know, on the record of saying I think
Speaker 1: at this point it's probably Oz is raised to lose.
Speaker 1: But to the extent that Fetterman still has a shot
Speaker 1: in this thing, it's because people just like him more
Speaker 1: than they like doctor Oz. No. I think you're absolutely correct.
Speaker 1: You know some interesting data that we have out right
Speaker 1: now on Miami Dade County. So in terms of what's
Speaker 1: happening with Ron DeSantis, he is up currently by eight
Speaker 1: points with sixty six percent of the votes in and
Speaker 1: that is the same county that he lost Crystal by
Speaker 1: twenty points just four years ago. Well, so that is
Speaker 1: a mett I mean, look, I don't have to tell
Speaker 1: everybody about the demo graphics of Miami Dade County, but
Speaker 1: just to show you about how exactly the Latino realignment,
Speaker 1: particularly with Cuban immigrants and others in Florida, that is
Speaker 1: a stunning development. The other newsy point that I want
Speaker 1: to point on Arizona, this I predict is going to
Speaker 1: be a big thing. I was flagging it to you earlier.
Speaker 1: There were reports about problems in Maricopa County about voting machines.
Speaker 1: The RNC right now is actually filing an emergency motion
Speaker 1: to extend polling hours in Maricopa County because voting machines.
Speaker 1: This is according to them, in over twenty five percent
Speaker 1: of voting locations have experienced quote significant issues. The widespread
Speaker 1: issues in election administered by Katie Hobbs are unacceptable. This
Speaker 1: is from RNC Chairwoman Ron McDaniel. As Republicans are flocking
Speaker 1: to the polls vote in person on election day, they
Speaker 1: have dozens of attorneys and thousands of volunteers. So if
Speaker 1: it is close, I expect that to be a major flag. Well,
Speaker 1: I mean, it's ironic because it used to be that
Speaker 1: Democrats were the ones that were really concerned about election
Speaker 1: day issues because typically those issues were in this cities,
Speaker 1: and we're seeing that today in Philadelphia and they're having
Speaker 1: issues and typically, you know, it was Democratic voters who
Speaker 1: are actually more likely to vote on election day. Post
Speaker 1: COVID and especially post Trump, you now have this hard
Speaker 1: partisan split where and this is you know, this is
Speaker 1: an important factor for Republicans. Democrats have had weeks of
Speaker 1: early voting to turn their people out and figure out
Speaker 1: who vote and who has it. Let's get them to
Speaker 1: the polls and let's turn out like the ones who
Speaker 1: are reluctant, et cetera, et cetera. Republicans put all of
Speaker 1: their eggs now in this election day basket. So when
Speaker 1: there are problems in Maricopa County, as there are always
Speaker 1: issues every election somewhere in the country, they're freaking out.
Speaker 1: And of course they're not freaking out of like oh no,
Speaker 1: it's they're having issues. They're freaking out of like they're
Speaker 1: stealing it again and it's rigged. Of course, if the
Speaker 1: results go in their favor, then suddenly it's going to
Speaker 1: be all about I think they're pre pre working the
Speaker 1: ground there certainly. I mean, look, we'll see in terms
Speaker 1: of what the actual effect on that was, it was
Speaker 1: incredibly It's just my thing is with Katie Hobbs and
Speaker 1: all of them is like, you knew this was coming,
Speaker 1: and it's like, still, like what happened? Why exactly did
Speaker 1: twenty five or ten percent? I'm going to go with
Speaker 1: ten to twenty which is what I saw from the
Speaker 1: actual press conference, Like how do these machines just go down?
Speaker 1: You have to know that that is going to fuel
Speaker 1: like a serious Priortistan problem after two years of literal
Speaker 1: madness in Arizona where you had all those lawsuits and
Speaker 1: the fake audits and then there was actually a compromise
Speaker 1: voting machines by the Republican side by the overstock billionaire,
Speaker 1: which I'm going down real rabbit holes in terms of
Speaker 1: my memory for the fallout from that. I do think
Speaker 1: it is a major problem, as you said, which is
Speaker 1: that Pennsylvania now says that they had that problem. Then
Speaker 1: you also have the sorry Philadelphia had that problem Arizona.
Speaker 1: I do expect that to be a flashpoint, but I
Speaker 1: also it could disappear, like if Katie Hobbs just comes
Speaker 1: out at the moment that the polls closed in Arizona
Speaker 1: and wins, that it'll very likely disappear. But this is
Speaker 1: one I wanted to highlight for the audience because I
Speaker 1: do kind of expectively see some closer results. Do you think, Marshall,
Speaker 1: that the election denialism will play a big role here
Speaker 1: in the election in terms of like day of the
Speaker 1: awkward situation, which is not if Republicans wait right right?
Speaker 1: So I was listening to a podcast earlier to Prapp
Speaker 1: and pointed out that, look, Katie carry Lake is going
Speaker 1: to declare victory whether she wins, and that's kind of
Speaker 1: the datamic. Karen think, I kind of want to build up.
Speaker 1: I've been thinking about this election denial issue. Look, there's
Speaker 1: no conspiracy. I think that there's a large amount of
Speaker 1: incompetence in these systems. But I think if we're going
Speaker 1: to focus on where is the threat to democratic legitimacy,
Speaker 1: I think it's perfectly reasonable for people who aren't engaged
Speaker 1: with politics to say, like, wait, like it doesn't feel
Speaker 1: like elections have always been this much of across the
Speaker 1: ref So I think that, but they actually have been. Yeah,
Speaker 1: they have they been. I guess too, I mean exactly
Speaker 1: the hanging chads like, come on, they always because and
Speaker 1: it's part of like part of the strength and the
Speaker 1: resilience of the system is that you have each individual
Speaker 1: county running these things by a bunch of volunteers, you know,
Speaker 1: And so of course sometimes things are going to go
Speaker 1: awry thinking out about and by the way, I wanted
Speaker 1: to point out that the Maricopa County Twitter account is
Speaker 1: throwing haymakers at everybody who's criticizing them right now. They're
Speaker 1: responding to Charlie Kirk everybody and saying, like all this
Speaker 1: stuff is fall engaging in the discourse, right But I
Speaker 1: also wanted to give you guys just some more specifics
Speaker 1: on the election deniers, because I think these numbers are fascinating.
Speaker 1: So apparently sixty percent of Americans have at least one
Speaker 1: election denier on the ballot. Out of five hundred and
Speaker 1: fifty two total Republican nominees running for office, one hundred
Speaker 1: and ninety nine fully denied the legitimacy of the twenty
Speaker 1: twenty election, sixty one still question the election. Only seventy
Speaker 1: seven have fully accepted the results of the twenty twenty election.
Speaker 1: Ninety three accepted it with reservations. And what they say,
Speaker 1: at least according to five to thirty eight, is that
Speaker 1: you have at least one hundred are guaranteed to win,
Speaker 1: so you know it's not even competitive, including including three
Speaker 1: in the Senate. But the more important point, in Crystal,
Speaker 1: you pointed this out to me earlier, is that you
Speaker 1: also have in governor's races, there's two election deniers and
Speaker 1: four election doubters are shoe wins. And then you have
Speaker 1: probably even more importantly attorney generals and or attorney general
Speaker 1: and secretaries of state. There's a bunch of them as well.
Speaker 1: Seven election deniers running there for both respectively, for both
Speaker 1: secretary of State and attorneys general. So in total, fifty
Speaker 1: three percent of Republicans running either question or deny the
Speaker 1: election out right. So we are starting to get some
Speaker 1: very very early numbers out of the state of Georgia,
Speaker 1: and it's not even really worth telling you exactly what
Speaker 1: they are, but there is one trend that is pretty
Speaker 1: clear already again into the question of candidate quality. Governor Kemp,
Speaker 1: who is being challenged by Stacy Abrams again rematch there
Speaker 1: is outpacing Herschel Walker in his challenge to Rafael Warnock.
Speaker 1: So Kent feels very confident, you know obviously that he's
Speaker 1: going to ultimately prevail. The polls have consistently shown him up.
Speaker 1: But it does show you that, you know, in Georgia,
Speaker 1: even in times as sort of partisan and hardened as
Speaker 1: they feel, you have a significant and potentially determinative number
Speaker 1: of voters who are splitting their ticket and voting for
Speaker 1: the Republican for governor and voting for the Democrat for
Speaker 1: the Senate. Also a reminder, in Georgia you have to
Speaker 1: get over fifty percent in order to avoid a runoff.
Speaker 1: And all of the polls leading up to election day
Speaker 1: have shown, you know, whether they show Walker with a
Speaker 1: narrow lead or Warnock with a narrow lead, they show
Speaker 1: both of them coming in under fifty percentage points. So
Speaker 1: I think it is, you know, highly possible that we
Speaker 1: end up with yet another Georgia Senate run off. I
Speaker 1: think you're right, and Sean Trendio or Real Clear Politics
Speaker 1: talking about this, saying that Walker is currently is running
Speaker 1: in about four points behind Brian Camp. So that is
Speaker 1: a question of do you think that Brian camp is
Speaker 1: going to get more than fifty four percent of the
Speaker 1: raw vote. So if he does, then it's possible that
Speaker 1: Walker could have over fifty. I generally think you're right,
Speaker 1: which is that I don't see necessarily a world. But listen,
Speaker 1: we will see in terms of right now, like what
Speaker 1: the major hot story I think is, it's what I
Speaker 1: mentioned before on Miami Dade County and the interim numbers
Speaker 1: coming out of Florida. With regards to Ron DeSantis, there's
Speaker 1: some current numbers do look like he may win, actually
Speaker 1: by almost ten percent, which is crazy when you consider
Speaker 1: how he barely won the gubernatorial election against Andrew Gillum.
Speaker 1: I mean, he almost didn't win the Republican primary until
Speaker 1: Trump came and endorse him, which is a different question
Speaker 1: which I think you will hear quite a bit about
Speaker 1: it if he does decide to run against Trump. Marco
Speaker 1: Rubio also, right now, we've got fifty percent of the
Speaker 1: vote in so far from Florida. He's up very comfortably
Speaker 1: over val Deemings. It wasn't necessarily a question in terms
Speaker 1: of any other races. If people are interested that have
Speaker 1: only been called we're going by the ap tonight everybody
Speaker 1: Kentucky ran, Paul officially re elected. Okay, big surprise, Tim
Speaker 1: Scott officially re elected there, and then Peter Welch winning
Speaker 1: in Vermont. The Tim Scott one just reminds me of
Speaker 1: one of my favorite stories around how exactly and how
Speaker 1: wrong the polls truly can be. Well, let's all remember
Speaker 1: Lindsey Graham in twenty twenty. Jamie Harrison was said to
Speaker 1: be within just one shot. He raised over one hundred
Speaker 1: million dollars only one point away. Jim Clyburn said that
Speaker 1: he could pull him across the finish line. He ended
Speaker 1: up winning by losing by seventeen points, which is almost
Speaker 1: the exact same margin as the person who ran against
Speaker 1: Lindsay Graham six years prior. So to have nearly a
Speaker 1: seventeen point wrong swing in the state of South Carolina,
Speaker 1: we should all prepare ourselves for results like that. I've
Speaker 1: rewarded him by making him dean. Yeah, that's right, they
Speaker 1: rewarded him by making him the DNC chair. I'm also
Speaker 1: really reminded whenever we're going to talk in the context
Speaker 1: in New Hampshire is Maine. I mean, we cannot forget
Speaker 1: Susan Collins outpaced by nine points to actually finish quite
Speaker 1: comfortably in the state of Maine, when she was considered
Speaker 1: an absolute goner on almost every statewide pole so called
Speaker 1: high quality. I was talking about this earlier today. I'm
Speaker 1: actually curious, Marshall Kyle, what you guys think. Why is
Speaker 1: it that we seem unable to properly pull non college
Speaker 1: educated whites. It is a story that is just does
Speaker 1: not seem solvable, like it seems at this point somebody
Speaker 1: would be able to properly wait some you know, formula,
Speaker 1: and yet since Donald Trump came on the ballot, Marshall,
Speaker 1: it has just not yet been possible, which is crazy
Speaker 1: for the people like us who have to sit here
Speaker 1: in prognosticators like listen, we have to bake it an
Speaker 1: assumption of complete, of completely being wrong in a way
Speaker 1: that we haven't in modern history in a long time. Yeah,
Speaker 1: And like you said, it's a new dynamic to politics,
Speaker 1: it hasn't been. It's hard because very well paid, very
Speaker 1: smart people have spent the last eight years it's literally
Speaker 1: focused on this issue, and it just seems like this
Speaker 1: is one of those categories where we're going to have
Speaker 1: to just factor this in for the next, our next
Speaker 1: eight years like this, this is kind of the story
Speaker 1: of the decade. Just how that gap between college educated
Speaker 1: and non college educated whites that's the center of politics
Speaker 1: right now. Yeah, what do you think Kyle Well Crystal
Speaker 1: was reading me earlier today, Remember the five thirty eight
Speaker 1: article from Nate Silver. He was like having an identity
Speaker 1: crisis and writing it down, explaining like, how do we
Speaker 1: weigh this thing versus how do we weigh that thing?
Speaker 1: How do you know, how do we make it work?
Speaker 1: And you know, look, the thing that really shook my
Speaker 1: faith massively was that typically in modern American history, you had,
Speaker 1: you know, there would be an advantage for the Democrats
Speaker 1: baked into the polls. But then it was the opposite
Speaker 1: in this these special elections that just happened. I think
Speaker 1: it was five House special elections post Dobbs correct, and
Speaker 1: it was the it was the exact opposite. And I
Speaker 1: was like, wait, what I always thought, either the polls
Speaker 1: are going to be like roughly accurate, or you're gonna
Speaker 1: have a baked in like four point Democratic advantage. But
Speaker 1: at this point, now this is my answer. Every time
Speaker 1: you lasted, I'm like, I don't know, I'm going off
Speaker 1: gut feeling. Now it literally, I know, it is so crazy.
Speaker 1: Here's a fun data point coming out from the Stacy
Speaker 1: Abrams currently running behind Warnock by eight points. So the
Speaker 1: Democratic dream Stacy Abrams raised, I mean tens of millions
Speaker 1: of dollars, became a massive star in her own right.
Speaker 1: Go ahead. Kemp stood up to Trump. Yes, he is
Speaker 1: not an election denier. Correct, And it looks like he's,
Speaker 1: if anything, he's being rewarded for that. You know what's funny,
Speaker 1: Kyle Trump. Trump actually endorsed him yesterday. To Trump. It
Speaker 1: was a quiet adment. Johnny came out. It was like,
Speaker 1: I give Brian Kemp my support. Why we all, you
Speaker 1: know what, because he's gonna win. So you see, I
Speaker 1: had the better even though I literally went to the
Speaker 1: state and said I would rather have Stacy as governor.
Speaker 1: After it looks like he's gonna win. Trump is behind me.
Speaker 1: I just want to say one thing about Stacy Abrams,
Speaker 1: who was really built up as like this next Democratic star,
Speaker 1: and there were, you know, glossy profiles written for her
Speaker 1: in the Washington Post photo shoots and all this stuff.
Speaker 1: Part of her mistique was that she had built this
Speaker 1: voter turnout operation in Georgia. That was the whole idea
Speaker 1: is like Stacy Abrams crack the code number. When Joe
Speaker 1: Biden wins Georgia by this narrow margin, and we're saying
Speaker 1: it's because of this voter turnout machine that Stacy Abrams
Speaker 1: was able to put together and focused on and what
Speaker 1: she did and listen, I'm not there. I don't know.
Speaker 1: Maybe it did make a difference ultimately, but she wasn't
Speaker 1: able to turn that machine on clearly in order to
Speaker 1: get herself sufficient votes to come close to defeating Brian Kemp.
Speaker 1: It's not over yet, it's not called, but doesn't look
Speaker 1: good for her when she's running so significantly behind Warnock ultimately.
Speaker 1: One other note on the Georgia race. This is from
Speaker 1: at Taniel O'Daniel Nasheniyan, who by the way, Bolts Magazine.
Speaker 1: You guys got to follow up support them if you can.
Speaker 1: They have a wonderful election cheat sheet with all of
Speaker 1: the ballot initiatives, everything that is at stake in this election.
Speaker 1: No matter they lean to the left. They focus a
Speaker 1: lot on criminal justice issues, but just in terms of information,
Speaker 1: totally second to then, So shout out to them. But
Speaker 1: he's saying that we now have an interesting data point
Speaker 1: from Georgia, which is that the libertarian candidate is only
Speaker 1: guard wondering about one point four percent. That's crazy. So
Speaker 1: that means that the Walker Warnock margin would have to
Speaker 1: be under whatever the libertarian candidate is getting in order
Speaker 1: to go to a runoff. So since the libertarian candidate
Speaker 1: is getting such a small proportion, that makes it less
Speaker 1: likely that it is ultimately going to go to a runoff.
Speaker 1: That's actually a fascinating point. Go ahead, Mark, Yeah, I
Speaker 1: want to build on the on the Warnock versus Stacy
Speaker 1: Abraham story because if you're looking at lessons for Democrats right,
Speaker 1: a lesson for Republicans we focus on tonight is, look,
Speaker 1: if you're gonna have an election denier, make sure they're
Speaker 1: television talent. If you're a Democrat operating in a purple
Speaker 1: to red state, you need to be able to not
Speaker 1: be a part of the national mood. And it seems
Speaker 1: to me the big mistake that Stacy Abrams has consistently
Speaker 1: made this is the mistake that also like nuke to
Speaker 1: her vice presidential one, like brought a twenty twenty chen,
Speaker 1: is she feels the need to jump into the national discourse.
Speaker 1: And I don't just mean like commenting on issues, but
Speaker 1: she just clearly is a national figure, and Warnock is
Speaker 1: not an political figure. Same thing goes for Mark Kelly,
Speaker 1: same thing goes for Fetterman. So if you're a Democrat
Speaker 1: in these types of states, you need to have a personality,
Speaker 1: which all three of those do, but you also just
Speaker 1: cannot be part of that national story. So I read
Speaker 1: it just a little bit differently. I mean, I agree
Speaker 1: with what you're saying, but the other thing is Georgia
Speaker 1: historically is a red state, and you have Warnock and
Speaker 1: Assoff pulled off the upset there recently. And when I
Speaker 1: look at Warnock, I think he has like every excuse
Speaker 1: in the world to go full Joe Mansion in full
Speaker 1: Kirston cinema, and he just didn't. He's actually been like
Speaker 1: a loyal vote for Biden. And I view that as
Speaker 1: almost like super serving the Democratic base. So the model
Speaker 1: going forward should be for Democrats like super serve your
Speaker 1: base and then maybe you'll have a shot even in
Speaker 1: an off year, as opposed to trying to please everybody
Speaker 1: like Joe Manchin and of course most importantly manched In
Speaker 1: cinema like to please their donors, but like trying to
Speaker 1: portray yourself as like, oh, I'm a Maverick and I'm
Speaker 1: an iconoclass and I could reach across the aisle. Sometimes
Speaker 1: voters sniff that out for what it is and it's
Speaker 1: really fake. And in the case of Warnock, he didn't
Speaker 1: do that, and perhaps he's getting rewarded for that. It's possible,
Speaker 1: you know. Mark Kelly is an interesting example too. He
Speaker 1: basically around ninety seven percent voting record with Biden, and
Speaker 1: yet like, how exactly does he maintain his credibility From
Speaker 1: what I have read, Really, what it is is that
Speaker 1: he's willing to depart with Biden on the border, He's
Speaker 1: willing to call him out locally. He grants a lot
Speaker 1: of interviews to the local This is where I just
Speaker 1: don't know, Marshall, Like how much of the whole all
Speaker 1: politics is local, all politics is national. But then guys
Speaker 1: like Kelly exist and you're like, hey, I mean he
Speaker 1: does well. I mean he didn't do particularly well in
Speaker 1: the debate, but like he gives interviews to like Arizona Central,
Speaker 1: and he makes sure that in the debate he's like
Speaker 1: I call on Joe Biden to like restore our board,
Speaker 1: but he doesn't ever do that whenever he's here in Washington.
Speaker 1: He doesn't go up to Manu Raju and the CNN
Speaker 1: cameras and we're like, I'm calling out Joe Biden here
Speaker 1: right out. But he does it in his heads and
Speaker 1: somehow it doesn't come across as fake. It's a very
Speaker 1: interesting story. There's something we kind of totally different topic.
Speaker 1: We kind of glossed over it, right with those Miami
Speaker 1: Dade numbers. What happened to Florida over the past twenty years?
Speaker 1: That's actually really like, it's not it's not it's not purple,
Speaker 1: it's red. You know, it's two thousand election. That's Florida.
Speaker 1: It's a state that Democrats we're very, very quite close
Speaker 1: to winning two thousand and eight. Like, what what do
Speaker 1: you guys think happened Avenue, Ohio? Yeah, I mean I
Speaker 1: have to think that it has a lot to do
Speaker 1: with the Latino swim swing too, Republicans. I mean, the
Speaker 1: Miami Dade numbers are a perfect indication of that, and
Speaker 1: especially I mean the Florida Latino community. Latino community tends
Speaker 1: to be more conservative because it's disproportionately in Cuban. So
Speaker 1: if I had to say what happened in Florida, I
Speaker 1: think that's got to be a significant part of it.
Speaker 1: I got one more for you too, the villages. That's
Speaker 1: what happened in the villages. You had all these retirees
Speaker 1: moving there, and there's a lot of boomers, a lot
Speaker 1: of a lot of QAnon faithful down there. One of
Speaker 1: all kinds of stuff. Rick Scott mister cut social Security
Speaker 1: as their senator. So it's a weird state. This is like,
Speaker 1: that's the get Rick's personal profile versus how he is
Speaker 1: in the state actually is again to the whole local thing.
Speaker 1: Like Rick actually speaks fluent Spanish, and he made like
Speaker 1: twelve trips to Puerto Rico whenever he was running. He
Speaker 1: made like Puerto Rico ad a big thing for him.
Speaker 1: I always found that kind of fascinating. I don't know,
Speaker 1: I'm curious for everybody before we all jump in at
Speaker 1: eight PM. A lot of DeSantis bros. Are blowing out
Speaker 1: about his numbers right now. So even my friend Michael
Speaker 1: Brennan Doherty, who generally is not one to go at this,
Speaker 1: he says, quote every political professional, GOP conservative Populace is
Speaker 1: going to look at these Florida numbers and want DeSantis
Speaker 1: as the twenty twenty four nominee. Noah Roffman also, to
Speaker 1: be clear, never Trump guy, but he says, quote Donald
Speaker 1: Trump has spent the last forty eight hours loosing unprovoked
Speaker 1: attacks on DeSantis. If DeSantis only response is a fifteen
Speaker 1: to twenty point statewide victory in Florida, I don't think
Speaker 1: that he needs any other What do you think, Marshall,
Speaker 1: there's a lot of this is this. You did a
Speaker 1: good job of picking two people who I don't think
Speaker 1: are coping. They're actually giving their they're given their real
Speaker 1: But these are stupid opinions, right, the notion that Republican voters,
Speaker 1: like the actual base of the republic voter is saying like, oh,
Speaker 1: look at those fifteen to twenty per but literally no
Speaker 1: one is choosing their twenty twenty Like, hey, Florida, any
Speaker 1: the Republican nominee in twenty twenty four is winning Florida. Yes, Like,
Speaker 1: that's the whole point of this conversation we just had.
Speaker 1: So that's not the debate. The debate and within the
Speaker 1: Republican Party is not like, hey, you know, can you
Speaker 1: win Florida? The debate is who do we want representing us?
Speaker 1: And from my perspective, you talk to any actual There's
Speaker 1: a great tweet on this where someone said people on
Speaker 1: Twitter who are standing for DeSantis right now over Trump
Speaker 1: are disproportioned with people who want to get jobs for
Speaker 1: DeSantis versus like actual Republican voters. Like, talk to any
Speaker 1: of your family members who are Trump people. They'll say DeSantis,
Speaker 1: nice guy. I like him, he can come in twenty
Speaker 1: twenty eight, twenty thirty two. He's young. I like Trump. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I haven't said edual debate and that Kyle has the
Speaker 1: difference of it. They really go ahead privately, having like
Speaker 1: several months now, it's here privately and publicly, so let's here. Look.
Speaker 1: I mean, bottom line is we're looking at the reality
Speaker 1: of a potential indictment for Donald Trump, and not only that,
Speaker 1: you might also look at a conviction for Donald Trump
Speaker 1: because he's got so many lawsuits. I mean I literally
Speaker 1: can't even name them all, that's how many there are. Yeah,
Speaker 1: he said, you know, you have the federal investigation in
Speaker 1: DC over the top secret and classified documents. You have,
Speaker 1: of course, the civil case in New York over all
Speaker 1: of his fraudulent business practices, and that press commons from
Speaker 1: Letitia James. If you haven't seen it, go watch it
Speaker 1: because it's amazing. Like the crimes she alleges are so specific,
Speaker 1: there's so much detail that it's mind blowing anyway, So
Speaker 1: there's all these different cases against Trump. I think an
Speaker 1: indictment is likely. I think conviction is possible. The only
Speaker 1: thing that we're really relying on in granted, this is
Speaker 1: difficult to do, but does Merrick Garland have a pair?
Speaker 1: If he has a pair and he does what he's
Speaker 1: supposed to do. Look, I'm very critical of the Republican
Speaker 1: Party and the Republican base, but you know, Chris and
Speaker 1: I were debating this the other day. Can Donald Trump
Speaker 1: win the Republican primary from prison? I'm a hard no
Speaker 1: on that. I think that it would be Gavis definitely
Speaker 1: not only win, he would win bigger than if he
Speaker 1: was in disagree. I disagree on it. One big thing
Speaker 1: to respond to this on we kind of had attest
Speaker 1: to this already, which is that when when the mar
Speaker 1: Lago raid happened, every single Republican who given everything you
Speaker 1: just start to believe what you just said right, every
Speaker 1: single establishment Republican in the back of their head is like, yeah,
Speaker 1: this is obviously not good. This is definitely bad. They
Speaker 1: wouldn't privately defend it, but they fell on their sports
Speaker 1: for heading time desatus. So when every single time they've
Speaker 1: had an opportunity to implement what you've described, they haven't
Speaker 1: gone for it. I do not see a word of
Speaker 1: Rhonda Santis gets on the debate stage and says, you
Speaker 1: know what, Donald, we both You're gonna be in prison
Speaker 1: this time next year. You're not gonna do the nom
Speaker 1: He needs to do that, don't you need to do
Speaker 1: Look we're talking short term, long term too. I mean,
Speaker 1: I saw the numbers right after that raid. I saw
Speaker 1: that they went up for Trump. But I think it's
Speaker 1: it's a little fake in the long run, in the
Speaker 1: same way that an investigation into Hillary Clinton by the
Speaker 1: FBI didn't help her in the twenty sixteen race. I
Speaker 1: don't think this helps Trump in any way, shape or four.
Speaker 1: And I think in many ways, like the chances of
Speaker 1: him winning becoming president again after everything that's already gone
Speaker 1: on zero. Absolutely get oubliterate everybody, by everybody, by anybody,
Speaker 1: by anybody, Americans. They're over it. Americans are over it.
Speaker 1: I get you have your little clique of thirty percent.
Speaker 1: That's just absolutely psychotic for you. Great, have fun with that.
Speaker 1: Try winning a national election on that's not that's the problem.
Speaker 1: But there are real outside repeal in twenty sixteen. I
Speaker 1: think there are two totally different questions there. One is
Speaker 1: the general election. Let's put that to the side, because
Speaker 1: I do think if he's in prison, I think it's
Speaker 1: a better Republican primary electorate. They're his I mean, he's
Speaker 1: announcing in like eight as it's done, and Ron de
Speaker 1: Santa is like he immediately vent they the moment, and
Speaker 1: that's the same thing that's going to happen. Trump is
Speaker 1: gonna then he's probably going to get indicted, and it's
Speaker 1: going to be another moment where they all have to
Speaker 1: rally to him. And then what I mean, you've already
Speaker 1: filed for presidency and Ron DeSantis has never done anything
Speaker 1: other than these little sort of like you know, subtweet
Speaker 1: jabs at Trump. The minute you come directly for him,
Speaker 1: it is a totally different one. Second, guys, we do
Speaker 1: have our people on standby. I'm just going to gohead
Speaker 1: and tell the crew. Let's go ahead and get Lewis
Speaker 1: ready from oz HQ. I believe because I know that
Speaker 1: we are there, all right, so we actually have him.
Speaker 1: We have him ready, all right, Let's go ahead and
Speaker 1: bring him in if we can. Okay, Lewis, how are
Speaker 1: you so? This is Louis Angels. He's the Doctor OZ event.
Speaker 1: Thank you very much for our premium SUBJT enabled to
Speaker 1: be there, Lewis. Give us a sense. What's going on
Speaker 1: on the ground. You're there at Doctor oz HQ. What's
Speaker 1: the feeling. Poles are closing very soon? What are you seeing? Absolutely?
Speaker 1: Thanks for having me on. Guys. Excited to be here. Yep,
Speaker 1: I'm here at the Doctor OZ event. The last couple
Speaker 1: of days have been across the state. Came in on Saturday,
Speaker 1: first thing in Pittsburgh. We headed over to the Donald
Speaker 1: Trump event that was going on there. Sunday we were
Speaker 1: at the Bernie Sanders event that was taking place in Pittsburgh.
Speaker 1: Monday night we were at a John Fetterman event, so
Speaker 1: we really, you know, talked to all sorts of people
Speaker 1: all over the place. May I drew the short stick
Speaker 1: and had to drive over from from Pittsburgh this morning
Speaker 1: and May the six hour checkover. But we made it. Yes, yeah, yeah,
Speaker 1: no problem, no problem. Holdough, I'm a little upset. I
Speaker 1: was expecting there to be potentially some crew to take here.
Speaker 1: None yet, I hosted. If that changes, we'll play, We'll see.
Speaker 1: But yes, thank you. I've been saving that one. You know,
Speaker 1: since you talked to voters who were clearly, you know,
Speaker 1: very enthusiastic about doctor Oz, or at least voting for him,
Speaker 1: very enthusiastic about Fetterman, did you see a difference in
Speaker 1: terms of, you know, how they were viewing the key issues.
Speaker 1: One thing I noted from some of the coverage that
Speaker 1: you all at status Ku had sent us is the
Speaker 1: Fetterman voters talked a lot about doctor Oz's character. The
Speaker 1: Oz voters talked more about you know, inflation, crime, immigration.
Speaker 1: They had sort of like big picture national issues in mind.
Speaker 1: Was that a sort of consistent theme with the voters
Speaker 1: that you spoke with. I would say that's fairly consistent. Yes.
Speaker 1: One thing that I noted that I was a little
Speaker 1: bit surprised about, you know, from Afar looking online online,
Speaker 1: Fetterman looks like the campaign has tons of energy behind
Speaker 1: it and everything in person, I haven't seen it as much.
Speaker 1: If I'm being honest, when you compare Saturday night at
Speaker 1: the Trump event and the energy that was there, some
Speaker 1: of it, I'll be it crazy, but there's definitely an
Speaker 1: energy around all of that movement still. And then you
Speaker 1: compare it to on Sunday. The Bernie Sanders event that
Speaker 1: I was at was directly across the street from a
Speaker 1: big college in Pittsburgh, dorms right across the street. There
Speaker 1: were maybe four or five hundred people there. The park
Speaker 1: wasn't even close to full, and that was surprising to me.
Speaker 1: I mean, Bernie Sanders and college students, that's his easy
Speaker 1: demographic to get them over there, and they weren't showing up.
Speaker 1: And then again last night at the Fetterman event, same
Speaker 1: kind of deal. It was a little bit further out
Speaker 1: of Pittsburgh, but the turnout was really not not what
Speaker 1: I was expecting. The energy was fairly low. I will
Speaker 1: say Fetterman's speech last night was probably the best I
Speaker 1: had heard him speaking so far, but unfortunately I think
Speaker 1: that might be a little too little, too late. That's interesting.
Speaker 1: That's why it's so valuable to have you on the ground.
Speaker 1: You know, it's not something that we can really get
Speaker 1: a sense of you know, in the interviews and stuff
Speaker 1: that you were giving for us, it was a lot
Speaker 1: of national talk about inflation from the gopeople. Have you
Speaker 1: talked to any swing voters? I'm curious, like any people.
Speaker 1: First of all, let's be clear. Some people say the
Speaker 1: swing voters, but then they're like, I would never vote
Speaker 1: for xmy life. But any actual swing voters in your estimation,
Speaker 1: maybe the people who made up their mind in the
Speaker 1: last couple of days. What are they saying? What is
Speaker 1: at the top of their mind? For sure. So a
Speaker 1: couple of people that I spoke to that were interesting,
Speaker 1: And then a couple of folks I spoke to outside
Speaker 1: while the press were waiting in line to get in
Speaker 1: here today said that anecdotally they had heard this a
Speaker 1: lot too. The Oz Shapiro vot exists in decent number.
Speaker 1: I would say, wow, yeah, yeah, and I heard again.
Speaker 1: I had the six hour car ride today, so I
Speaker 1: listened to your show from yesterday just to see what
Speaker 1: you all were talking about, and I heard one of
Speaker 1: you at one point say that you didn't think that
Speaker 1: that was gonna be a thing, And I was actually surprised.
Speaker 1: Yesterday I've met two of them myself just on the street.
Speaker 1: You know, it's one thing doing interviews with people on
Speaker 1: camera and everything. It's a whole other thing in the Uber,
Speaker 1: you know, talking to the hotel front desk person. And
Speaker 1: I feel like I've learned a lot more doing that
Speaker 1: sort of thing. I've got one good anecdote from an
Speaker 1: Uber driver. He was like a self described conservative, and
Speaker 1: he was the first person actually to tell me that
Speaker 1: he was a you know, somebody who's gonna vote for Oz.
Speaker 1: But to him, Mastriano was a little too out there.
Speaker 1: He said that Oz kind of wrote the line well
Speaker 1: on the issue of abortion. This gentleman was a self
Speaker 1: described pro life, but he says that, you know, a
Speaker 1: lot of the Republicans running nationally have gone too far,
Speaker 1: and that doctor Oz is kind of, you know, written
Speaker 1: the more moderate line, if you will, and kind of
Speaker 1: making more compromise. Maybe not moderate, it might not be
Speaker 1: the right word, but that he's a little bit open
Speaker 1: to the compromise. Okay, Yeah, very interesting stuff. Cool. Thank
Speaker 1: you so much. We're going to check back in with
Speaker 1: you later, keep us posted, stay in touch, and let
Speaker 1: us know what you were seeing there on the ground.
Speaker 1: Than we really appreciate it absolutely, Thank you for pleasure. Okay,
Speaker 1: so I think we have the next guy who is up.
Speaker 1: Let's go ahead and see control room if we good
Speaker 1: John to go at the fetterment event. All right, we're
Speaker 1: not gonnat anything for so okay, John at the fan event.
Speaker 1: Great to see you, John, Welcome, Thank you. So just
Speaker 1: give us a little bit of a vibes check there
Speaker 1: and what you have heard from voters while you're on
Speaker 1: the ground. So, uh, people haven't actually started coming into
Speaker 1: the the uh to hear the arena, it's mostly just
Speaker 1: pressing staff. I guess they'll sell letting people in in
Speaker 1: a few minutes around eight. Uh. I haven't spoke with
Speaker 1: anybody outside here, but you know I was with Lewis
Speaker 1: this whole weekend and and yesterday. Basically a lot of
Speaker 1: people are are looking forward to voting for Frediman. Haven't
Speaker 1: really spoke with any odd supporters except at the Trump rally.
Speaker 1: You know they're not they're not as excited for Oz,
Speaker 1: but you know they're going with him because Trump is
Speaker 1: endorsing him, basically, got it. Uh. So you know whoever,
Speaker 1: whoever Trump's Trump's going with, they're they're going with you know,
Speaker 1: and uh, you know, actually speak with uh some people
Speaker 1: at the health low a seconds, No problem, John, It's
Speaker 1: all good. Am I here, John, We're gonna we're gonna
Speaker 1: check back in with you later in the night when
Speaker 1: folks are arriving there and we start to get some
Speaker 1: whole results so we can see what is going on
Speaker 1: there on the ground. Thank you so much for taking
Speaker 1: the time with us. And by the way, guys, both
Speaker 1: of these folks are with Status kup. They enable all
Speaker 1: of our on the ground reporting. Actually, you guys, Freemium
Speaker 1: subscribers enable that reminder ten percent discount. It's in the description.
Speaker 1: Give it ascription, but also make sure you give status
Speaker 1: kup a follow because they're doing great work and it's
Speaker 1: very expensive to travel around the country and they are
Speaker 1: doing that work which really benefits us and benefits the
Speaker 1: entire independent media service system. Yeah, it really does help
Speaker 1: to you know, to have those guys. They travel all
Speaker 1: over and you know, Louis in particular finding those interviews
Speaker 1: and he filmed some of that stuff for us that
Speaker 1: we played on the show, which was really really valuable.
Speaker 1: So look seven fifty five, everybody, if things are going
Speaker 1: to close five minutes, it's interesting. Let me make it now,
Speaker 1: go ahead. Yeah, I was going to say, let me
Speaker 1: give you the numbers where they're at with a small
Speaker 1: percentage of the vote in, which means these numbers are
Speaker 1: not representative of the entire state. But I just want
Speaker 1: to give you a little bit of a sense of
Speaker 1: where things are right now early in the night. So
Speaker 1: if we look at Florida, which actually, according to New
Speaker 1: York Times, has seventy one percent of votes in, so, yeah,
Speaker 1: decent percentage of the state. And I'm just talking Senate
Speaker 1: right now, Rubio is up on val Deming's fifty five
Speaker 1: to forty four. I'd say that's roughly in the ballpark
Speaker 1: of what we're kind of expected there. Over in Georgia
Speaker 1: right now, you only have twenty two percent of the
Speaker 1: vote in, so that is still extremely early. So these
Speaker 1: numbers will definitely change, will definitely tighten up. But you've
Speaker 1: got Warnock at fifty eight percent to herschel Walker at
Speaker 1: forty percent. That again is with according to the New
Speaker 1: York Times, twenty two percent of the vote in. You
Speaker 1: have in North Carolina the Democrat. This is with forty
Speaker 1: two percent of the vote in. Not sure what parts
Speaker 1: of the state but again these numbers will definitely change.
Speaker 1: You have the Democrat Sherry Beasley up fifty five percent
Speaker 1: to Ted Budd forty three percent. Hashtag stop the count.
Speaker 1: Over in Ohio you have just six percent in and
Speaker 1: again Tim Ryan up sixty two. JD Vans thirty eight
Speaker 1: very early, definitely going to change. And then you have
Speaker 1: over in New Hampshire. This is one that Democrats got
Speaker 1: super nervous about super late. And by the way, this
Speaker 1: is also a state where they decided to spend a
Speaker 1: bunch of money trying to make sure that a psycho
Speaker 1: election denier got the nomination on the Republican side. Now
Speaker 1: that guy is in striking distance of actually winning a
Speaker 1: Senate seat. Way to go, guys. Anyway, at this point,
Speaker 1: Maggie Hassen does have the lead, that is, with a
Speaker 1: mere ten percent of votes in. She's at sixty three
Speaker 1: percent and Don Baldock election denier as at thirty five percent. Ye,
Speaker 1: we'll endorsed, by the way, that's right. What's interesting about
Speaker 1: Baldock is that, as I'm sayg earlier in our last show,
Speaker 1: there is no early voting in New Hampshire, like, not
Speaker 1: even close. So the election result is much more reflection
Speaker 1: of the electorate today as opposed to let's say two weeks,
Speaker 1: three weeks. It could have some given the fact that
Speaker 1: things were narrowing and moving much more in Republican direction.
Speaker 1: Everybody always talks about momentum and like whether that matters
Speaker 1: or not. I tend to think especially less in the
Speaker 1: democratic context, given mail in balloting and the way that
Speaker 1: the chang is generally nationally. But to have that dynamic
Speaker 1: in New Hampshire is pretty interesting, Marshall. And one thing
Speaker 1: I want to bring up that came through the correspondence.
Speaker 1: I can't believe we haven't talked about this. Was Trump
Speaker 1: a positive or a negative on the trail this year? Right?
Speaker 1: Because he was. He made the point that people, if
Speaker 1: you're at that, you know Trump show, and I think
Speaker 1: that's the way to describe it. You're definitely there for Trump,
Speaker 1: not for Oz. But there's a lot of controversy of
Speaker 1: like is Trump going to announce a few days ago?
Speaker 1: Is Trump starting off? It's really a big deal. So
Speaker 1: where did we come to on positive or negative? I mean, oh,
Speaker 1: my opinion is overall negative because he's the reason why
Speaker 1: Republicans have such poor candidates, especially walk Many of these races.
Speaker 1: I means is him Walker is him? Didn't he like
Speaker 1: Masters is him? And not only that, but then when
Speaker 1: you look at the number of like Trump is stopped
Speaker 1: the steal. And so when you have all these election deniers,
Speaker 1: people like Masterrano, I mean, there's no reason Republicans shouldn't
Speaker 1: be winning the Pennsylvania governor's race this year in Mastrano
Speaker 1: very likely to lose. So when you look at the
Speaker 1: way that he shaped the candidate field and made it
Speaker 1: much poor quality, I think you have to say he's
Speaker 1: an etneg to be fair, though you know, I think
Speaker 1: Mastriano he didn't endorse him until like two days before
Speaker 1: because Mostreiano was just gonna win. So it's really Trump.
Speaker 1: There's no January sixth, there is no election to stop
Speaker 1: the steal. So when I look at that holistically, you
Speaker 1: have to say, like, you know, Kyle and I were
Speaker 1: talking about this Earli, you should actually make this point, Kyle,
Speaker 1: because I'm just stealing it from you. But right now
Speaker 1: you have a bunch of Republicans who are elected, who
Speaker 1: go along with a bunch of nonsense but do not
Speaker 1: really believe it. You're about to have a lot of
Speaker 1: people who are actuallyable believers, right, and that's that is
Speaker 1: kind of scary. Yeah, I mean, I think it's they're
Speaker 1: in an impossible place right now because you can't really
Speaker 1: win a Republican primary. You're more likely to win a
Speaker 1: Republican primary if you have Trump's acting, but then you're
Speaker 1: definitely less likely to win the general because you're not
Speaker 1: going to get the independence. You're not going to get
Speaker 1: the moderates, you're not going to get the normies, you're
Speaker 1: not going to get the young voters. You're not going
Speaker 1: to get the women. You're not going to get them exactly.
Speaker 1: He's the only one who's like bucking the trend. But
Speaker 1: generally speaking, yeah, it's difficult. It's it's difficult for these candidates,
Speaker 1: and it's sort of like, you know, a deal with
Speaker 1: the devil effectively, like you'll get me through the primary,
Speaker 1: then I'll hit a brick wall in the general. Thanks, coach.
Speaker 1: You know what's the crazy thing is that carry? You know?
Speaker 1: Trump said today that he'll be announcing his VP pick
Speaker 1: very soon. I think it's going to be Carrie Lake.
Speaker 1: I really do. You know he loves the one thing
Speaker 1: I because I was thinking about this earlier because I
Speaker 1: bought that. I buy that too. I think he really
Speaker 1: likes her, but he also needs her there. Yeah, you know,
Speaker 1: like it's there's a it's important for him to have
Speaker 1: his election denial people in place for next time around
Speaker 1: to make sure it can swing in his director. I don't.
Speaker 1: I also don't believe him because I think of I
Speaker 1: hate doing the whole like think of the apprentices. I
Speaker 1: think of Trump. But why would Trump declare his VP
Speaker 1: VP candidates so early? Like it should be a thing,
Speaker 1: It should be entertaining, There should be auditions in trouts
Speaker 1: and look, Carrie Lake, Carrie Lake could totally fall in
Speaker 1: her face. Oh yeah, totally fall in her face. If
Speaker 1: there was an environment where Carrie Lake was going to succeed.
Speaker 1: It's charismatic as how Carrie Lake against a mediocre Democrat
Speaker 1: during a red tsunami election, she can get into office
Speaker 1: when voters aren't purely thinking of inflations. It's not as
Speaker 1: much like the governor's issue as much and totally fall flat.
Speaker 1: So I just I think I think Trump is not
Speaker 1: true true about that. You might be right. Okay, it's
Speaker 1: eight oh one pm here on the East Coast, So
Speaker 1: here are the polls where they have closed Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Kansas, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri,
Speaker 1: New Jersey, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania, oh Boy Rhode Island,
Speaker 1: South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, and here in Washington, d C. So, Pennsylvania,
Speaker 1: obviously that's going to be the one that we're all watching.
Speaker 1: I don't know, I'm I really am fascinated to see
Speaker 1: how it all comes out. Reminder that the Pennsylvania Secretary
Speaker 1: of State has all already come out and said that
Speaker 1: we are not going to likely to know the results
Speaker 1: for several days there, So everybody hold on to your hats,
Speaker 1: especially if it is as close as people are indicating
Speaker 1: some early vote numbers coming out some place in the Midwest.
Speaker 1: They already called the race for Todd Young winning his
Speaker 1: reelection in Indiana. Ohio, We've only got nine percent of
Speaker 1: the vote that's come in there right now. Connecticut they've
Speaker 1: called the race for Richard Blumenthal. Literally the moment the
Speaker 1: polls closed, they went ahead and called the race. Peter
Speaker 1: Welsh also News Center that we in Vermont, they went
Speaker 1: ahead and they called that for him, and then Maryland,
Speaker 1: Chris van Holland winning his reelection in Maryland. Basically no
Speaker 1: major upset there. James got there, so they go ahead.
Speaker 1: I don't know if you mentioned this yet, but they
Speaker 1: called Florida for DeSantis and Rubio. Yes, so they did that.
Speaker 1: And then also, this is going back about twenty minutes
Speaker 1: or so, but I want to bring it up. Marjorie
Speaker 1: Taylor Green has officially been reelected. Oh well, you know,
Speaker 1: that's a great question in terms that's a good example
Speaker 1: in terms of these scam or it's not scam candidates.
Speaker 1: But you know, she believes, she believes. I'm not saying
Speaker 1: to hurt the person running a answer that raised some
Speaker 1: fifteen million dollars. That's as It's like those Republicans are
Speaker 1: run against AOC, we don't have a chance in hell,
Speaker 1: and they end up raising like twenty million. So if
Speaker 1: you're one of those people, don't fall for one of
Speaker 1: those ads. He was like, I'm gonna take on Margie
Speaker 1: Taylor Green is ilhan Omar wins re election by seventy
Speaker 1: three percent. People like, it's not hers. The race is
Speaker 1: actually pretty like your scare candidate ads with their problem.
Speaker 1: I think Marshall, no TV ads at all and she
Speaker 1: almost lost the cameral sauce no republics. I'm talking about
Speaker 1: the oppositional candidate. It's not in the pro fair enough.
Speaker 1: So I have some interesting numbers out of Kentucky where
Speaker 1: they have an anti abortion ballot initiative. Voters are are
Speaker 1: also casting ballots on So this is again from Daniel
Speaker 1: and Shaneyan a Bolts magazine. He says that the pro
Speaker 1: choice side in Kentucky has a chance to defeat the
Speaker 1: anti abortion referendum. So it's it's early, only ten percent
Speaker 1: reporting Rand Paul, who's already been declared the winner based
Speaker 1: on what they have been so far. But he leads
Speaker 1: fifty seven to forty three. But the anti abortion referendum
Speaker 1: is actually down by ten points. We saw this reserve
Speaker 1: so huge divite. I mean that means you have a
Speaker 1: huge percentage of the kentuckt population that is like yes
Speaker 1: to Ran Paul, no to this anti abortion referendum. So
Speaker 1: is absolutely fascinating. So let's dig in a little bit
Speaker 1: to the DeSantis numbers. Everybody calling it now here guys,
Speaker 1: he is at fifty seven percent of the vote. Well,
Speaker 1: Charlie Christ at forty two. This is with seventy three
Speaker 1: percent in all major networks. Everybody go ahead and calling
Speaker 1: him for Ron DeSantis but leading by fifteen points, Charlie
Speaker 1: crist I mean, barely winning the election by what less
Speaker 1: than point one percent something last time around against Andrew
Speaker 1: gil just staer stonning. This will be one of the
Speaker 1: major national stories coming out of this, no question, Marco Rubio,
Speaker 1: as you said, already getting declared the winner at eight PM,
Speaker 1: which is crazy. I mean, you know, to have Florida,
Speaker 1: that's supposed for my entire lifetime, Florida, Ohio. These states
Speaker 1: were considered the major bell weathers. Now what is it.
Speaker 1: We're talking about Georgia, We're talking about Arizona, We're talking
Speaker 1: about the Midwest, places that should not be in play
Speaker 1: or never were. And you know, in really the political
Speaker 1: environment all of us came up really shifted. Well, I
Speaker 1: mean now for Democrat. Democrats have this great way of
Speaker 1: being like, oh, that's state Ohio. We don't care about
Speaker 1: that state anymore. Let's Obama Attle Greener. Yeah, I mean
Speaker 1: that's a red state. Forgot about that place. But yeah,
Speaker 1: I mean it's really shifted now they're focused more on,
Speaker 1: you know, the sun belt state certainly Georgia, you know,
Speaker 1: North Carolina was a big hope for a while. Those
Speaker 1: hopes have faded a little bit. But certainly Arizona is
Speaker 1: new turf for for Democrats in terms of you know,
Speaker 1: it was not long ago where it is very difficult
Speaker 1: for Democrats to win in Arizona. And now you have
Speaker 1: Mark Kelly there, you know, favored. It's far from over,
Speaker 1: but favored to win in the state. And obviously Biden
Speaker 1: won their last time around. So I mean, this is
Speaker 1: the political realignment. And they also got Colorado. Colorado used
Speaker 1: to not be either, So there's I would say if
Speaker 1: I were Democrats stratis, I would not trade Ohio and Florida.
Speaker 1: Colorado no offense to college. So we have our official
Speaker 1: flip of the night A Charlie Chris old Sea Florida
Speaker 1: thirteenth District, Anna Paulina. I think she used to work
Speaker 1: for Turning Point. I believe I met her once or twice. Anyway,
Speaker 1: she and Paulina Lena. She has officially flipped Florida thirteen.
Speaker 1: That is officially one gain for the Republicans in the
Speaker 1: House of Representatives. As a reminder, everybody, it's only eight
Speaker 1: oh six, so it is really beginning to get started
Speaker 1: right now. I have a call for you. Go ahead.
Speaker 1: Democrats have flipped the Maryland governorship. Oh, Wes Moore will
Speaker 1: be ghosts technically, but yeah, Maryland's first black governor. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I mean this was one where again, uh, going back
Speaker 1: to the question just Trump Helper Herd, Republicans nominated an
Speaker 1: extreme candidate in Maryland. Maryland is a state that you know,
Speaker 1: currently has a Republican governor. So you know, it is
Speaker 1: a blue state, but it's one that has a track
Speaker 1: record of being willing to vote for Republicans for governor.
Speaker 1: I don't know if Larry Hogan, the current governor, I
Speaker 1: don't know if he outright endorsed to Wes Moore, but
Speaker 1: I do know he said he would not vote for
Speaker 1: the Republican nominee. So you know, this turns a seat
Speaker 1: that you know, maybe Republicans could have contested with a
Speaker 1: different candidate into one that was just a slam dunk
Speaker 1: for West One. Here's another fun game, which is by
Speaker 1: how much are DeSantis and Rubio winning by? So Rubio
Speaker 1: right now is up about twelve points over val Deming's
Speaker 1: in Florida. The five point thirty eight average had him
Speaker 1: at twelve points leading. So that's interesting. So to consider
Speaker 1: this one of the first times. Well okay, so maybe
Speaker 1: we can consider this in now red states. Maybe they
Speaker 1: are getting good at calling these although Florida was pretty
Speaker 1: off in twenty twenty. If we'll all recall by add
Speaker 1: Biden up by three but Trump letting it by two.
Speaker 1: So that's this is These are the fun things. Also
Speaker 1: to look at is the margins, the actual polling average
Speaker 1: the day of, and it does look like both DeSantis
Speaker 1: and Rubio. DeSantis actually outperforming a little bit his polls.
Speaker 1: They had him up by about ten. He looks to
Speaker 1: be winning by almost fifteen, but Rubio dead on at
Speaker 1: twelve in Florida. That's a win actually for the polling industry,
Speaker 1: I think so far, so we should celebrate some of
Speaker 1: the little wins before we get on the dunks. I
Speaker 1: do find it interesting though, I mean, just look, let's
Speaker 1: all let it sink in Florida's a red state. That's crazy.
Speaker 1: We've also got a flip for governor of Massachusetts, which
Speaker 1: had been a Republican. Again a blue state where a
Speaker 1: Republican was governor. Now you have Democrats flip that one
Speaker 1: as well. Similar dynamic where you had an extremist candidate
Speaker 1: it was nominated by the Republicans and made this an
Speaker 1: easy win ultimately for the Democrats. So similar dynamic in
Speaker 1: Massachusetts as you ultimately had in Maryland. By the way,
Speaker 1: what did you think of that political strategy, which you
Speaker 1: can call it that where Democrats would prop up the
Speaker 1: more extremist Republican candidate, Because as a matter of principle,
Speaker 1: I think it's a messed up thing to do because
Speaker 1: you're rolling the dice with these people who you admit
Speaker 1: are like a threat to democracy and flat out authoritarian.
Speaker 1: But like in terms of the actual strategy of it,
Speaker 1: I mean, if it's effective, it's like I kind of
Speaker 1: see where they're coming. So it's effective with a very
Speaker 1: very high consequence, right, Buldock WEDNESDA Night, that's going to
Speaker 1: be a big, big screw up. Yeah, it's the master
Speaker 1: one of those propped up Austrana was. So that's why
Speaker 1: it's a mixed bag. It's one of those things where
Speaker 1: if it works, yeah, it's smart strategy. If it doesn't
Speaker 1: work and you end up with Baldock to the balduck
Speaker 1: literally in the United States Senate for six straight years
Speaker 1: as well, you have a serious problem. Well, and this
Speaker 1: is where it's tough too, because it seems that the
Speaker 1: and this is and this is why mestern has been
Speaker 1: a super hurt by the election denial issues. Governor from
Speaker 1: an election denial perspective matters way more than a senator
Speaker 1: because they point the secretary. Yeah, but that's the that's
Speaker 1: the kind of the key differentiator there. But look, I
Speaker 1: think the problem with the thing that's curious the two
Speaker 1: of you think about this, because this is this gets
Speaker 1: the difficulty of like the democratic partic because Kyle, you
Speaker 1: were like democrats did its like democratic like political operatives
Speaker 1: did it? So like it's this weird coalitional politics where
Speaker 1: you have like so, I don't think we have a
Speaker 1: big answer to this thing. But it just seems like
Speaker 1: a bad idea because if you believe the election issue
Speaker 1: is a serious as you believe obvious, if if American
Speaker 1: democracy is at stake, we could also believe that people
Speaker 1: would elect. Therefore I would not like fuck around and
Speaker 1: find out that way. Biden's final speech, right after he'd
Speaker 1: already done the one with the red lighting that freaked
Speaker 1: down about whatever and said they were what did you
Speaker 1: say semi fascists, Yeah, semi fascist and then he did
Speaker 1: the final election pitch was like democracy is on the
Speaker 1: ballot they did the January sixth years. I mean, if
Speaker 1: they believe their own rhetoric that the real dividing line
Speaker 1: is not even D or R left or right, it's
Speaker 1: whether or not you believe in the basic tenets of democracy.
Speaker 1: Like if you actually believe that, how do you then
Speaker 1: go and like bolster a candidate like Don Bulldock or
Speaker 1: Doug Mastriano in Pennsylvania. I mean that's why I said,
Speaker 1: as a matter of principle, you shouldn't do it because
Speaker 1: like it shows like like you're playing with fire exactly.
Speaker 1: But also in terms of strategy, you can't deny that
Speaker 1: they probably would have had way more wins if it
Speaker 1: was the more moderate Republicans. You know, you made that
Speaker 1: point before. If it was Glenn Yunkin everywhere in the country,
Speaker 1: Democrats be screwed. Definitely, wh absolutely absolutely. Second GOP flip
Speaker 1: of the night is in Florida seven, So Corey Mills
Speaker 1: winning there. So that's two net two right now in
Speaker 1: terms of seats, I expect many more will be coming in.
Speaker 1: It's really interesting in order to consider the Florida results. Also,
Speaker 1: I'm curious, so get this. Val Demings raised seventy two
Speaker 1: million dollars in that race, Marco seventy two. I think
Speaker 1: we should let the audience let that sink in. I
Speaker 1: remember when Beto raised twenty million, and I was like,
Speaker 1: that's crazy. I can't even believe that he raised twenty
Speaker 1: million dollars like in a week, and he ended up
Speaker 1: against Ted Cruz with his competitive almost and that was
Speaker 1: competitive within two points. I mean, that was the national story.
Speaker 1: We talked about, Crystal. You and I talked about that
Speaker 1: ad nausea. Beto and Ted. We could not even believe
Speaker 1: the amount of money that he had in the tank.
Speaker 1: And val Demings now outpacing even some of those landmark
Speaker 1: campaigns of twenty eighteen in terms of dollar fundraising, very
Speaker 1: well fundraised all of these candidates, and she loses the
Speaker 1: race at eight ZHO one. Well, I'm stunning. There is
Speaker 1: a big story in this election about the amount of money.
Speaker 1: It will be overwhelmingly record breaking sums spent on this
Speaker 1: midterm election. One thing that you know, sort of the
Speaker 1: like Democratic hopium on Twitter that I saw was that
Speaker 1: Democratic candidates, especially at the grassroots level, they were wildly
Speaker 1: out fundraising their Republican counterpoints, and so they were saying, look,
Speaker 1: this is counterparts. So they're saying that this is an
Speaker 1: indication the democratic base is more enthusiastic, and so this
Speaker 1: is one indicator of that ultimately. But you know, the
Speaker 1: amount of money that billionaires flooded into these races is
Speaker 1: really disturbing and really disgusting if again, you actually really
Speaker 1: do care about like democracy and people having a voice
Speaker 1: and not just being controlled by a bunch of billionaires.
Speaker 1: So I actually have this pacifics on that. Americans for
Speaker 1: Tax Fairness did a report and they released it last week.
Speaker 1: New analysis finds that four hundred and sixty five billionaires
Speaker 1: had pumped eight hundred and eighty one million dollars into
Speaker 1: the twenty twenty two federal metrum elections by October. That's
Speaker 1: twenty seven times more than they contributed before Citizens United
Speaker 1: was decided. So back in twenty ten, those billionaires only
Speaker 1: spent thirty two million on the election. Again, now it's
Speaker 1: eight hundred and eighty one million. Wow, that's fascinating, I
Speaker 1: mean it is. It's also funny too, because you know
Speaker 1: that those set are much more influenced by the hopium
Speaker 1: of these many of these polls, like the val deemings
Speaker 1: in them, and it's just to watch it all just
Speaker 1: get flushed down the drain. Is just really stunning. Some
Speaker 1: interesting numbers here from Miami Day, just to reiterate twenty eighteen,
Speaker 1: DeSantis won thirty nine percent twenty twenty. This was a
Speaker 1: big story that we covered Trump at forty three percent
Speaker 1: twenty twenty, basically near almost one hundred percent reporting desantus
Speaker 1: at fifty three. So a ten point swing in the
Speaker 1: DeSantis direction away from Trump from twenty twenty to twenty
Speaker 1: twenty two and a near like fifteen percent gain to
Speaker 1: an outright majority in Miami Dade County for Disantis there
Speaker 1: in the Latin just four years, which again really is stunning.
Speaker 1: And there's quite a bit I'm seeing pumped out by
Speaker 1: Republican elites talking about the DeSantis victory. The margin of
Speaker 1: victory outlines how popular his platform is when compared to
Speaker 1: the Democrats. The Club for Growth, which is a major
Speaker 1: organization obviously battling right now with Trump, they went to
Speaker 1: bat with Trump over Blake Masters, they went to sorry
Speaker 1: over JD. Vance. There was a big fight there if
Speaker 1: we'll all recall whenever they endorsed Josh Mandel. Wow, that's
Speaker 1: the name I haven't thought of in a long time.
Speaker 1: Thank god we don't have to talk about that one tonight.
Speaker 1: But anyway, it highlights that there is a major war
Speaker 1: right now for the quote unquote narrative amongst Republican elites,
Speaker 1: the idea of Desanta's twenty twenty four. Our respective opinions regardless,
Speaker 1: like a lot of gop elites right now are pushing
Speaker 1: very very hard, from what I can see, the idea
Speaker 1: of Haymlessen running for president. My view of this is
Speaker 1: what I said on Breaking Points the other day, which
Speaker 1: is like this is like the more clever version of
Speaker 1: like the never Trump movement. It's like it is they think, okay, well,
Speaker 1: we tried going straight up against him. Didn't work with
Speaker 1: like people who would actually repudiate him and be critical
Speaker 1: of him and like you know, call him names or
Speaker 1: what I like. That clearly failed. Liz Cheney obviously not
Speaker 1: going to work out this time. Let's go with someone
Speaker 1: who's like trying to mimic him and trying to be
Speaker 1: just like him, except for you know, maybe a little
Speaker 1: bit less crazy and not really directly criticize him. Maybe
Speaker 1: that will be the thing that will work, but ultimately,
Speaker 1: you still have a working class megabase that is deeply
Speaker 1: committed to Donald Trump. And they may be fine with
Speaker 1: Ron DeSantis, they may be okay with him, but this
Speaker 1: is disproportionally. It's not one hundred percent, but it's disproportionally
Speaker 1: a sort of like elite, highly educated, highly online phenomenon
Speaker 1: trying to make this guy a thing go ahead. And
Speaker 1: this is why I'm fascinated how the two parties and
Speaker 1: their incendiisms are different. So the Democratic Party, this is
Speaker 1: why Hillary Clinton ultimately beats Bernie this is why Joe
Speaker 1: Biden becaus nominee. Like your average normally Democratic voter is like,
Speaker 1: what's electability? Am I super excited by Joe Biden? No?
Speaker 1: Is Hillary pass just so by date? Probably, but like
Speaker 1: she's gonna win. The Republican base is not voting for electability, right,
Speaker 1: and they've ever since twenty twelve. Romney was the last
Speaker 1: time the Republican Party picked their choice off of electability.
Speaker 1: And that's just the critical difference here. And it seems
Speaker 1: like the weird situation that DeSantis stands are in is
Speaker 1: they're basically trying to make an argument that you would
Speaker 1: make to the Democratic Party. Right. That is funny because true,
Speaker 1: right now, the people who are still big time supporters
Speaker 1: of Donald Trump after everything we've seen, it is super cultish,
Speaker 1: way more cultish than any dissentist stands on Twitter. In
Speaker 1: my opinion, I don't know in a sense, I don't
Speaker 1: agree with the analysis of like, oh, we still got
Speaker 1: this working class base. He's got like quean On people
Speaker 1: at this point, Like, yeah, I get thirty percent of
Speaker 1: the country, I admittedly, but like that's not merely as
Speaker 1: it wasn't person the base things that the election was stolen.
Speaker 1: It's an overwhelming majority. I understand that. But again the idea,
Speaker 1: I don't buy this notion anymore, like, oh, he's got
Speaker 1: this working class base, like all the two times Obama
Speaker 1: voter who flipped a Trump because his job was outsore.
Speaker 1: Those people are gone. Now it's people who are trying
Speaker 1: to figure out what Qwanon is saying and they're going
Speaker 1: to try exact tion more votes. Okay, but there's a
Speaker 1: lot of things that have happened since then, right, I mean,
Speaker 1: like January sixth happened, and he's gone full authoritarian and
Speaker 1: every other day he's on truth social saying put me
Speaker 1: back in or let's redo the election, good struggle, let's
Speaker 1: talk about let's talk about this though. Yeah, I don't
Speaker 1: think there's an equivalence between these two things. But narrative,
Speaker 1: you've kind of seen that in the paper recently has
Speaker 1: been If you talk to a lot of like Trump
Speaker 1: voters about the extremism January sixth argument, they'll say in
Speaker 1: a kind of what about his way, Well, what about
Speaker 1: like summer twenty twenty and the riots, and actually both
Speaker 1: the parties are extremists and bad, Like I just think
Speaker 1: we're in this weird area where it just kind of
Speaker 1: washed out. I agree with you, though they say like,
Speaker 1: oh it was Antifa who did it? For like, oh
Speaker 1: Antifa did it? Or I actually know was we did it?
Speaker 1: But it was based They go back and forth. But
Speaker 1: you're kind of making my point. It's like this weird
Speaker 1: contradictory cult that he has around him. I don't view them.
Speaker 1: I don't think it's like representative. Certainly not fifty one
Speaker 1: percent of the country nowhere near that. So from what
Speaker 1: I well, I'll remind director in college, but I have
Speaker 1: the most but the other interesting one. Actually we haven't
Speaker 1: talked about this yet, which I found fascinating. Ahead of
Speaker 1: congressional preference, guys number fifteen, please, this is the gender gap.
Speaker 1: This is something which actually bears a lot of discussion,
Speaker 1: and I believe that it will be born out tonight,
Speaker 1: especially in those Miami Dad numbers and elsewhere. Let's just
Speaker 1: highlight here congressional preference for those who might just be listening,
Speaker 1: men with college educated men who are college educated or more.
Speaker 1: We had a D plus sixteen preference in twenty eighteen.
Speaker 1: Today is R plus ten with a twenty six point
Speaker 1: shift over four years. That's insane. But then look at
Speaker 1: it with the no degree. So basically you continue to
Speaker 1: have a Republican preference R plus eight in twenty and
Speaker 1: eighteen R plus twenty now at twelve point shift. Here's
Speaker 1: the crazy one though, with college educated women and Crystal.
Speaker 1: This gets to the suburban women discussion that we had previously.
Speaker 1: Dems bet the House that they could try and keep
Speaker 1: college educated women. They have it there at D plus
Speaker 1: thirty four in twenty eighteen, now D plus thirty eight
Speaker 1: only a four point shift. And then finally women with
Speaker 1: no college degree had a D plus three preference in
Speaker 1: twenty eighteen, a D plus one preference effectively tied today
Speaker 1: in twenty twenty two with a two point shift in
Speaker 1: the Republican direction. So you effectively see massive swings or
Speaker 1: a tiny swing with women with no college degree, and
Speaker 1: the only ground that is made up there Crystal was
Speaker 1: women with a college degree and only by four points,
Speaker 1: So really fascinating from a gender persse. I do think
Speaker 1: that one of the stories we might be talking about
Speaker 1: tomorrow is a huge gender devive. I think we may
Speaker 1: see a massive because you know, ultimately, you know, the
Speaker 1: the country is sort of living in these separate media ecosystems,
Speaker 1: separate bubbles. They're experiencing this election in like totally different ways.
Speaker 1: The issues that they're concerned about, that they're voting on
Speaker 1: are completely separate. The way they're thinking about these issues.
Speaker 1: I mean, it really is almost like the countries on
Speaker 1: two parallel tracks. And it does seem like, you know,
Speaker 1: the Row versus Wade being overturned, the DABS decision that
Speaker 1: also helped to set women in general and men in
Speaker 1: general on sort of a different track in terms of
Speaker 1: how they were viewing this election. Listen. I mean, it
Speaker 1: makes a lot of sense. If you're a woman, this
Speaker 1: feels a lot more direct, a lot more personal. You
Speaker 1: have like more just like directly at stake in terms
Speaker 1: of the decision. Of course, there's long been a widening
Speaker 1: jender divide, with Democrats doing better with women in general
Speaker 1: and Republicans doing better with men in general. But I
Speaker 1: do think it will be probably particularly stark in this election. Well,
Speaker 1: one quick thing and this is this is like a
Speaker 1: policy endorsement, but it was a course correction the Republicans
Speaker 1: pulled off, like the abortion rhetoric Lake Masters, June twenty
Speaker 1: twenty two. Once it's clear how devastating the abortion decision
Speaker 1: was for Republicans in those Kansas referendums, deletes the you know,
Speaker 1: National Abortion Band from webs right Republicans, and it's kind
Speaker 1: of interesting that the pro life movement was this forgetting.
Speaker 1: It shows how calculating this was, Like the pro life
Speaker 1: movement forgave Republicans really dialing back where they went, trying
Speaker 1: to turn the debate into like democrats of the real
Speaker 1: extremists un abortion. So that was a that was a
Speaker 1: that could have gone a different direction. I mean, it's
Speaker 1: kind of test case here. It's honestly a sign of
Speaker 1: sort of political maturity in the pro life movement, because
Speaker 1: ultimately they, I mean, they have been building this machine
Speaker 1: for decades. They had their eyes on the prize. They
Speaker 1: knew this was going to be one or loss at
Speaker 1: the Supreme Court. They created an entire infrastructure, They made
Speaker 1: the alliances of convenience with the billionaire clubs and the
Speaker 1: like radical libertarian economic people in order to make this
Speaker 1: thing happen. They looked at Donald Trump and they're like,
Speaker 1: this man stands for used to give too like pro
Speaker 1: life causes, used to literally give to planned parenthood. His
Speaker 1: personal life is a total catastrophe and a disaster. No
Speaker 1: one would be shocked if that man is paid for
Speaker 1: one or multiple abortions himself. But they said, he gave
Speaker 1: us the list, he's gonna put these nominees on the court,
Speaker 1: and so am I surprised that they look at Blake
Speaker 1: Masters like scrubbing his website from his previous abortion language,
Speaker 1: and they're like, Eh, what are you gonna do? Ultimately,
Speaker 1: he's going to vote the way we want him to.
Speaker 1: And Mark Kelly's not. No, I'm not shocked by that.
Speaker 1: Pretty interesting. I still I think if they get the
Speaker 1: numbers though, they're going to go for a national abortion bit.
Speaker 1: This is the testiny. This is actually you know, people
Speaker 1: got pistel. Lindsay Graham introduced his band. That's true. Yeah,
Speaker 1: they know. So we actually you run in some people
Speaker 1: with some people who often update us on what are
Speaker 1: the major pro life folks paying. They were mad at
Speaker 1: Lindsay because Lindsay was only capping it at fifteen Reichs.
Speaker 1: They were like, no, no, no, They're like, that's not
Speaker 1: where we're going for. I mean, look if they do,
Speaker 1: if they do that, well, I mean I can just
Speaker 1: say good luck, Chrystal. Want to check in with you
Speaker 1: your district Stamburger, do we got fifty of the votes
Speaker 1: in Okay? We have a Silly Vega at fifty five
Speaker 1: and span Burger at forty five percent. With one hundred
Speaker 1: and twenty thousand votes which have been cast so far,
Speaker 1: we've got what all right, So let me a margin.
Speaker 1: I got to see which counties are in? Are the
Speaker 1: ones because so this district, the more you get to
Speaker 1: the north, the more democratic it ultimately is. So it
Speaker 1: looks like you've got Orange County is partially in. That's
Speaker 1: a very Republican area. You've got Culpepper County, which is
Speaker 1: kind of mixed. You've got Prince William County partially in
Speaker 1: that's a good area for Spanburger. That's about twenty eight
Speaker 1: percent in. It's still too early to say because you
Speaker 1: have some key areas down. And for example, my vote
Speaker 1: in King George County has yet to be counted. Yet
Speaker 1: we all know it's not over. It's one I have
Speaker 1: to say at the ballot box, the CIA ghoul versus
Speaker 1: the cop in my district, way go ahead. Can I
Speaker 1: give you guys some early voting numbers in Crystal you
Speaker 1: and I were we talked about this earlier today. What's
Speaker 1: the name of the guy, the Democratic polster Stan Greenberg?
Speaker 1: Vonear that guy Bonyer? Yeah? So with the target smart, Yes,
Speaker 1: with target smart, so he said, in early voting, the
Speaker 1: Democratic advantage is eleven percent, and in twenty twenty, to
Speaker 1: put it in perspective, it was seven percent. In twenty
Speaker 1: eighteen it was one percent. So before any of the
Speaker 1: votes that were cast today, Democrats had already built up
Speaker 1: a four point four million vote lead. And that actually
Speaker 1: leads into another question I wanted to ask you guys,
Speaker 1: you were talking about the gender gap here, do you
Speaker 1: think that there's going to be a giant like age
Speaker 1: gap as well, Like, are you going to are we
Speaker 1: going to see young voters turn out for Democrats for
Speaker 1: one of the reasons being that, you know, Biden did
Speaker 1: the student loan debt reduction which ninety percent of the
Speaker 1: people impacted make seventy five thousand dollars year or less.
Speaker 1: Are we going to see basically like politically Biden the
Speaker 1: Democrats getting rewarded for what they did. There. So the
Speaker 1: only indication that I've seen yet and because remember that
Speaker 1: detailed breakdown doesn't come until sometimes even weeks later, was
Speaker 1: John Rawlson was looking at this in terms of Clark
Speaker 1: County and Nevada. He said, actually, the younger voters between
Speaker 1: eighteen and twenty five were not showing up at all,
Speaker 1: like almost wow. Only at one point you land like
Speaker 1: a thousand votes even come in in that age group,
Speaker 1: which is he said, you know, this just shows you
Speaker 1: young people not showing up to vote. Again, that was Nevada,
Speaker 1: that was early vote. But that is the only actual
Speaker 1: demographic data that we have. Here's an interesting one Washington
Speaker 1: Post exit polls from a couple of different states that
Speaker 1: they put together New Hampshire, Georgia, and North Carolina, little
Speaker 1: perceived differences in the extremity of Republican and Democratic candidates,
Speaker 1: which gets to all of our questions around candidate quality.
Speaker 1: In Georgia, they actually verify more. We're saying that Warnock
Speaker 1: is extreme than actually Herschel Walker, given Walker's past position
Speaker 1: on abortion and obviously his own personal dalliances all being
Speaker 1: in the news. That just shows you a tremendous amount
Speaker 1: of political polarization, which we were talking about earlier. So
Speaker 1: to have little perceived differences, Kyle, this kind of gets
Speaker 1: to the Trump question we were talking about earlier, as
Speaker 1: to all the stuff which is in a level of
Speaker 1: such partisan hatred, of polarization, the other side is always
Speaker 1: just perceived as as is extreme. And I think that
Speaker 1: that Warnock number bears that out to find it really interesting.
Speaker 1: So we do have some numbers very early out of
Speaker 1: Pennsylvania five percent, and found this dude, Ryan Dido, who
Speaker 1: is a reporter for Pittsburgh Paper, and he says, in
Speaker 1: terms of how you interpret these results coming out of Pennsylvania,
Speaker 1: very likely Fetterman will when vast majority of mail in's
Speaker 1: that's what's going to be counted first. Then OZ is
Speaker 1: going to appear to gain ground is in person votes
Speaker 1: are counted, and then fetter Men will appear to gain
Speaker 1: some ground with late arriving mail ins. So just in
Speaker 1: terms of how you're viewing these numbers as they're coming in,
Speaker 1: it's really important to keep those dynamics in mind, not
Speaker 1: just in Pennsylvania but all over the map because all
Speaker 1: of these states have a different different rules about how
Speaker 1: and when and where what they count at what time.
Speaker 1: So just keep that really in mind as you're taking
Speaker 1: a look at all of this. So far, most of
Speaker 1: the votes have come in from places that are, you know,
Speaker 1: more favorable to Fetterman. You've got a lot of votes
Speaker 1: in from Philly, you got a lot of vote votes
Speaker 1: in from Pittsburgh. And it is also that you know,
Speaker 1: early the mail in ballot so far, so very favorable
Speaker 1: results right now for Fetterman. But it's five percent in
Speaker 1: and it's mostly the mail in vote, so you literally
Speaker 1: have them right now at eighty five percent. It's I
Speaker 1: don't think it's going to end up being an eighty
Speaker 1: five percent kind of a that's really good context there
Speaker 1: for the swing, so we could see a swing fatter Man,
Speaker 1: then back to us, then maybe back to Fatterman. I mean,
Speaker 1: that's just I just really want everybody to be patient
Speaker 1: and not like read anything nefarious into these vote totals
Speaker 1: changing because it's predictable because Republicans have made it a
Speaker 1: strategy strategy of like we are going to have our
Speaker 1: voters go to the polls on election day. There is
Speaker 1: a hard partisan divide between how the parties are approaching
Speaker 1: these elections, and so that's why you may see some
Speaker 1: kind of wild swings of these vote totals throughout the night.
Speaker 1: And why frankly, like when you look at a lot
Speaker 1: of these states that we expect to end up being close.
Speaker 1: I mean, right now, the Democrats are up in New Hampshire,
Speaker 1: They're up in North Carolina, They're up in Georgia, they're
Speaker 1: up in Pennsylvania, they're up in Ohio. But again, this
Speaker 1: is the probably and most if not all of those
Speaker 1: places the early mailand vote, which we expect to be
Speaker 1: overwhelmingly Democratics. So I wouldn't read too much into any
Speaker 1: of that. Yeah, And to your point, usually they'll like
Speaker 1: they'll count all of the ones from election day and
Speaker 1: then at the end more mailands like you said, so
Speaker 1: this is why they say. There was an article earlier
Speaker 1: today in ABC talking about there were three states in
Speaker 1: particular that they say a red mirage scenario could happen.
Speaker 1: But unfortunately, Look, I think we're going to see people
Speaker 1: out there making all sorts of bad claims when they say, oh,
Speaker 1: why why is the Democrat coming back now that it's
Speaker 1: two days later and there's nothing to fairies about it.
Speaker 1: You know, we're saying it beforehand, just like you know
Speaker 1: in the twenty twenty election, when I was on Joe
Speaker 1: Rogan Show with Tim Dillon, I was telling them up front, like, look, man,
Speaker 1: this is what's going to happen. And Joe says, now,
Speaker 1: like the only reason he didn't end up going down
Speaker 1: a bad path with the election is because I was
Speaker 1: there to tell him beforehand what was going to happen. This, Wow,
Speaker 1: it's gonna unfold. Look, I know no one will heed this,
Speaker 1: but can we please please just make it so that
Speaker 1: we can count early votes like before the day of
Speaker 1: Like so many of these state legislators across the Midwest
Speaker 1: have made it so that you can't do that, I
Speaker 1: think personally because they like the chaos. Well, because a
Speaker 1: lot bad for us. It's a lot of Republicans they
Speaker 1: want that passed these rules and then they like complain
Speaker 1: about like why is it so crazy? It's like you
Speaker 1: literally made this rule, Like go look in the mirror.
Speaker 1: This stuff drives me insane. What's that I voted early
Speaker 1: in person, I voted in person today, which is stand
Speaker 1: on that actual day. You're literally I literally have one
Speaker 1: of the most least competitive districts in the country. So basically,
Speaker 1: I mean I'm not normally re drew all the districts
Speaker 1: in Virginia, and so for the rest of my entire
Speaker 1: life in King George County, it has not been in competitive,
Speaker 1: including the race that I personally ran in, right, but
Speaker 1: now I'm in you know, the Spanburger district actually is
Speaker 1: one of the ones that everybody's watching. That is such
Speaker 1: an amazing Like the fact that Biden's last campaign stop
Speaker 1: was Ashbourne, Virginia. I just can't get over that. Like
Speaker 1: for context audience, he won. Biden won that district by
Speaker 1: nineteen percentage points in twenty twenty, So to have to
Speaker 1: stop over there, you highlighted this a He's not that popular,
Speaker 1: so most people just don't really want him in their district.
Speaker 1: So he's terribly he is bad. They're sorry. I celebrate
Speaker 1: some of the policy victories and like personnel choices, but
Speaker 1: he's he can't speak. He's a terrible campaign er. So
Speaker 1: they're sending him places where it's like, yeah, Joe, go
Speaker 1: down to Florida and see what you could do for
Speaker 1: Charlie Christ. It's actually really sad in my opinion, because
Speaker 1: you got to separate it out right. There's the politics
Speaker 1: and there's policy. Yes, And on the politics front, yeah,
Speaker 1: Biden's zombie. Biden's half dead, like nobody would want him CA.
Speaker 1: I mean, Obama goes out there. I think Obama's record
Speaker 1: policy wise is worse than Biden's. But Obama gave me
Speaker 1: the other day. Yeah, and it was I mean, I
Speaker 1: told it, and I was like, I forgot how good
Speaker 1: this guy was. Listen from Personal Chrisma. Absolutely, we got
Speaker 1: j Miles Coleman standing by control room. If you guys
Speaker 1: want to go ahead and bring him in, just give
Speaker 1: me a heads up whenever he's ready to go for
Speaker 1: you guys. Remember Jay Miles Coleman. He's joined us a
Speaker 1: couple of times. Works over at Larry Sabatae's crystal Ball.
Speaker 1: No relation there, no relation. I'll steal you. Can I
Speaker 1: tell you a funny story? Yeah? My mom, bless her heart,
Speaker 1: when I stopped by her house today and she's like,
Speaker 1: I heard about you on the local news last night.
Speaker 1: I was like, oh God, what you do now? They
Speaker 1: were talking about you and this guy Larry and our
Speaker 1: lesson predictions. And I was like, no, no, Mom, Larry
Speaker 1: Sabagage crystal Ball at the University of Virginia. So anyway,
Speaker 1: my mother was wishcasting that the local news was touched.
Speaker 1: It's OK, but breaking points audience, they know what's going on. Miles.
Speaker 1: We go and bring Miles in. Guys. You guys said
Speaker 1: he's ready. Hey Miles, let's go and put it. Throw
Speaker 1: him up there on the screen. Welcome to the show.
Speaker 1: It's good to see you. Can he hear us? There is? Yeah?
Speaker 1: Oh I'm not sure there is? Gotcha? All right? So, Miles,
Speaker 1: just in terms of the Senate picture numbers are very early.
Speaker 1: Are there any Is there anything that, like tea leaves wise,
Speaker 1: is standing out to you that's giving you any sense
Speaker 1: of what directions might night might go in? Sure, So
Speaker 1: one of the sort of early bell weathers, I told
Speaker 1: people to look out for if the Republicans could beat
Speaker 1: Senator Maggie Hassen in New Hampshire. Some polls had her
Speaker 1: in a close race. From from what I'm seeing, she's
Speaker 1: overperforming Joe Biden's numbers with some areas. So she's looking
Speaker 1: pretty good. So, you know, probably not going to be
Speaker 1: you know, it could be a good Republican night, but
Speaker 1: it's not going to be the whole damn breaks right. Yeah,
Speaker 1: And then it's it's what I'm noticed. In a state
Speaker 1: like Georgia, as expected, you have Warnock who is over
Speaker 1: performing Stacy Abrams by a few points. We're just gonna
Speaker 1: have to see if it gets to the point where
Speaker 1: he can actually he win out right and to runoff.
Speaker 1: It's interesting. So you feel like in Georgia, you said,
Speaker 1: the question for Warnock is whether he can win outright
Speaker 1: or go to a runoff. You think he's in that
Speaker 1: strong of a position right now vis a vis Walker
Speaker 1: that you think he'll end up with more votes on
Speaker 1: the night. You know, he could end up ahead of Walker,
Speaker 1: but he may still be under fifty percent. You know.
Speaker 1: One you know, one of my favorite ads was basically
Speaker 1: Warnock had this ad that, Okay, well, you know I
Speaker 1: may be one of your Thanksgiving guests if my race
Speaker 1: goes to a runoff into Sound where you'll be seeing
Speaker 1: more of my ad, So want to avoid having him
Speaker 1: over for Thanksgiving. That's interesting. Another thing that is interesting
Speaker 1: to me about what you said in New Hampshire is
Speaker 1: I'm just looking at the presidential results because you said
Speaker 1: Maggie Hassen is outperforming Joe Biden. I mean, Joe Biden
Speaker 1: won New Hampshire easily. He won that state by more
Speaker 1: than seven points. The polls had Maggie Hassen, some of
Speaker 1: them had her down, the mainstream poles mostly had her
Speaker 1: up by one two points. I was very close. So
Speaker 1: if she's out performing even Joe Biden's margin, I mean,
Speaker 1: that's a significant polling miss in a direction that we're
Speaker 1: not used to getting significant polling misses. Oh yes, and
Speaker 1: you know, just with the usual caveats that you know
Speaker 1: these results are incomplete, but you know, one of the
Speaker 1: things you can keep us so sort of looking for
Speaker 1: in our election return is, I think educational polarization or
Speaker 1: whether or not you have a college degree. I think
Speaker 1: as is basically becoming as important as things like race
Speaker 1: or gender when it comes to how people book. Well,
Speaker 1: guess what, New Hampshire is a relatively more college educated state.
Speaker 1: So I can see Democrats holding up better in a
Speaker 1: state like that compared to one like four where you
Speaker 1: have more of a working class population. I mean, especially
Speaker 1: in especially in a place like my Miami off for
Speaker 1: the Republic, off of for the them Democrats. But so
Speaker 1: you know, just some it's it's just from election to
Speaker 1: election you can always see some of these larger trends
Speaker 1: as at play. That's fascinating. We are very early in
Speaker 1: what we're getting in from Pennsylvania. I'm looking at this
Speaker 1: decision desk HQ right now, they've got five point three
Speaker 1: four percent. In my understanding is this is likely mail
Speaker 1: in vote that they're counting in Pennsylvania first. Is there
Speaker 1: anything that you can read into those results, because that's
Speaker 1: obviously maybe the race of the night. To take a
Speaker 1: look at Pennsylvania, I would avoid No, I mean okay there,
Speaker 1: I mean it really was until at really in twenty twenty,
Speaker 1: it wasn't called for Joe Biden until the Friday or
Speaker 1: Saturday after the election. So I don't think we'll have
Speaker 1: to wait that long. But the thing, every state is
Speaker 1: sort of different in terms of how it counts its vote,
Speaker 1: so just something to keep in mind. So I think
Speaker 1: in a state with Pennsylvania, they may just be counting
Speaker 1: all their mail in votes first. So yeah, go ahead,
Speaker 1: sicker Miles. What do you make of the college dynamic
Speaker 1: in Georgia that you were talking about, and how will
Speaker 1: that bear out whenever we're looking there also in Arizona
Speaker 1: and some of the other key Bell Weather states. Yeah,
Speaker 1: it's it's well, it's basically that same group of more
Speaker 1: college educated white vote voters who you know, a lot
Speaker 1: of those voters used to be Republicans like Democrats a
Speaker 1: bit more now. So to me, the big question is, yes,
Speaker 1: I can see a lot of those going for Governor Kemp,
Speaker 1: but how many of them are going to stick with
Speaker 1: Warnock and how many of them are going going to
Speaker 1: sort of hold their nose and sort of vote for
Speaker 1: herschel Walker. It looks like, again these results are very early.
Speaker 1: You know. It looks like Warnock is at least matching
Speaker 1: what Joe Biden got in the Atlanta area, So it's
Speaker 1: going to be very close. Okay, I got another one
Speaker 1: for you, miles. How about North Carolina. We've got Sherry Beasley,
Speaker 1: who in some polls you know, was running even I
Speaker 1: saw a couple of polls that had her up over
Speaker 1: Republicans had bud Right. Now, you've got fifty four percent
Speaker 1: in there, and she has a sizeable lead, fifty two
Speaker 1: percent to forty six percent roughly. How do they count
Speaker 1: their ballots? Where are those votes coming from? What do
Speaker 1: you think of her performance there thus far? Sure so, no,
Speaker 1: I mean, I think she's putting up a pretty decent
Speaker 1: per performance. It was something you have to keep in
Speaker 1: mind about knowing North Carolina is there sort of like Pennsylvania.
Speaker 1: Like we were just talked talking about North Carolina is
Speaker 1: a state that basically reports its early votes first uh,
Speaker 1: and as an election day batch comes in, stuff gets
Speaker 1: more Republican. In fact, that's what basically save Donald Trump.
Speaker 1: Really twenty twenty, Joe Bonden won the early and mail
Speaker 1: in vote, but Donald Trump got sixty five percent of
Speaker 1: the election day vote and that's what sort of killed
Speaker 1: the Democrats there. So you know, we'll see, I mean,
Speaker 1: what's what's you know, what's really interesting is I'm looking
Speaker 1: at a like, oh, like this would be Wake, which
Speaker 1: is the capital Raleigh. You know that used to be
Speaker 1: sort of a marginal county. Beasley's at over seventy percent
Speaker 1: there and She's probably gonna at least get over sixty.
Speaker 1: So you know, we're really seeing this sort of urban
Speaker 1: versus a rural trend in North Carolina. That's interesting, Miles.
Speaker 1: As the polls close around nine o'clock, and then further
Speaker 1: what are some of the things that people should keep
Speaker 1: in mind as some of the information comes in. I'm
Speaker 1: thinking of places like Wisconsin. I think a lot of
Speaker 1: eyes are going to be on the Midwest there, also
Speaker 1: in Arizona, and then even you know, I heard some
Speaker 1: rumblings around Washington and things like that. So any thoughts
Speaker 1: as we think even more further west of the country. Yeah,
Speaker 1: it's well, what you have to keep in mind is
Speaker 1: voting by mail east before twenty twenty has been more
Speaker 1: of a West coast thing, So Arizona is going to
Speaker 1: take several days to count's about So I would just
Speaker 1: tell people would be Pati, Okay, yeah, that makes one
Speaker 1: more for you before we let you go for now,
Speaker 1: Miles is Ohio. You know this was a big Democratic hope.
Speaker 1: This is a state that is trended hard to the right.
Speaker 1: You know, there were some polls showing Joe Biden having
Speaker 1: chance of winning Ohio in the final days of that campaign.
Speaker 1: That obviously didn't work out. I think Trump won the
Speaker 1: state by about eight points in the final days. It
Speaker 1: seemed like jad Vans was really pulling away from Tim Ryan.
Speaker 1: Were again in a situation where it was very early.
Speaker 1: We've got only nineteen percent in Tim Ryan at sixty
Speaker 1: percent JD Vans at forty percent. How is Tim Ryan
Speaker 1: or can you even tell at this point running versus
Speaker 1: how Joe Biden ran in twenty twenty. What I would
Speaker 1: say is it's actually looking a lot like what we
Speaker 1: had two years ago, because remember early on election n
Speaker 1: Boden was up about ten points there. You know, that's
Speaker 1: about where Ja where Tim Ron is now only for
Speaker 1: those election day votes in and give it to Donald Trump.
Speaker 1: So I can see I can see Van's pulp on
Speaker 1: off to me, the value for Tim Ryan, uh, you know,
Speaker 1: may have been this is a state that republic at
Speaker 1: least he made it into a race. Republicans had to
Speaker 1: spend millions of dollars there just to shore up Ohio.
Speaker 1: Maybe those millions who had they run a better candidate
Speaker 1: could have gone to a state like New Hampshire or
Speaker 1: North Carolina or Nevada or Georgia, basically a state that
Speaker 1: may be more decisive in terms of control of the Senate.
Speaker 1: Got it, well, great point. We're going to check in
Speaker 1: with you, possibly in another hour. Producers will be in touch.
Speaker 1: But man, so so helpful. We always love having you
Speaker 1: on the show. All right, thank you' all, Thank you
Speaker 1: very much. So New Hampshire. Yeah, I mean takeaways from
Speaker 1: Miles is that the blowout has not yet appeared. It's
Speaker 1: possible could materialize. But given his knowledge of exactly where
Speaker 1: the election was in twenty twenty, things to look for,
Speaker 1: the fact that Maggie Hassen outperforming Biden, I might have
Speaker 1: to eat grow on this one. I really thought that
Speaker 1: that one might be one of the flips. It's not
Speaker 1: just that she's out performing again. Biden won that state
Speaker 1: by more than seven points. It was not close. That's right.
Speaker 1: This was really coming down the stretch of jump ball
Speaker 1: in terms of what the polls were saying. So what
Speaker 1: that is reflecting is actually a miss on the polls, right,
Speaker 1: but underestimating the Democrats, which is something that we saw
Speaker 1: in a couple of those special elections that got Democrats
Speaker 1: really really super hopeful right after Roe versus Wade. So
Speaker 1: that's that is pretty stunning to me. How much of
Speaker 1: this is a function of, like, you know, there's early
Speaker 1: voting in a lot of these states, and the polls
Speaker 1: the further back you go, the more favorable they are
Speaker 1: too Democrats, correct, So how much of this can we
Speaker 1: attribute to that? Do you think in New Hampshire? Well,
Speaker 1: in New hamp anywhere we're seeing democratic Hampshire in particular,
Speaker 1: you said they don't really early, they don't all, yeah,
Speaker 1: which was why September so like voting hadn't quite yeah,
Speaker 1: but I mean that was part of why Democrats were
Speaker 1: getting really nervous and Republicans were getting really hopeful about
Speaker 1: New Hampshire is exactly that dynamic you're talking about in
Speaker 1: a lot of other states. They were able to bank
Speaker 1: votes while their positioning was a bit more favorable than
Speaker 1: it seemed to erode down the stretch. But you know,
Speaker 1: I mean what Miles is saying there, and I think
Speaker 1: it's really important to have a lot of caveats in because,
Speaker 1: as I try to say, every like five minutes each
Speaker 1: of these states counts votes differently. It's very hard to tell.
Speaker 1: Are these mail in ballots are the day of ballots
Speaker 1: like that could shift everything, that could really change the picture,
Speaker 1: et cetera. But he's saying in New Hampshire, in Georgia,
Speaker 1: and in North Carolina, at least the Democratic candidates are
Speaker 1: actually out running Joe Biden, and in North Carolina, Joe
Speaker 1: Biden did not lose by all that much. I mean,
Speaker 1: that ended up being a very close race. So to
Speaker 1: be honest with you, I never really bought the poles
Speaker 1: that had the Democrat in striking distance in the state
Speaker 1: of North Carolina. But at least where we sit right
Speaker 1: now with some fifty eight percent in apparently she's really
Speaker 1: got a shot. That is. Yeah. Look, it's very interesting.
Speaker 1: I don't know. I mean, my takeaway from Miles is
Speaker 1: kind of what I expected, which is that it's going
Speaker 1: to be complicated. I he's to be multifaceted. I was
Speaker 1: not expecting the quote unquote read tsunami. In terms of
Speaker 1: the New Hampshire vote apparently is still only fifteen percent.
Speaker 1: And so I think that's also the question about early vote,
Speaker 1: about the mail in ballots, about when exactly they reported
Speaker 1: the counting. I mean, it has turned into a b
Speaker 1: Hampshire is the one that must be that should be
Speaker 1: the most clear because they don't really have early vote.
Speaker 1: So if he's saying she's out pacing where Biden is,
Speaker 1: I mean, maybe one thing that could be going on
Speaker 1: is the places that are being counted right now are
Speaker 1: the college educated more college educated parts of the state.
Speaker 1: But overall, as he points out, I mean, New Hampshire
Speaker 1: demographically in terms of college education, is more favorable dem
Speaker 1: territory anyway. And so that's kind of consistent with what
Speaker 1: we saw in that upstate New York special election and
Speaker 1: a couple of the other special elections as well, where
Speaker 1: they happened to be in areas that had highly college
Speaker 1: educated where you might have some college towns, there is
Speaker 1: a huge surgeon turnout, and so it would kind of
Speaker 1: fit that you might have that same dynamic in the
Speaker 1: state of New Hampshire. So I mean, look, this is
Speaker 1: the simple question to what do you attribute this, assuming
Speaker 1: it's real for a second, right to what Let's wait,
Speaker 1: we just don't know, man. It's like I just si
Speaker 1: soccer if it turns out to be Democrats when George
Speaker 1: when North Carolina win New Hampshire. Let's not get crazy
Speaker 1: if they outperform what the polls are saying and they
Speaker 1: end up holding the Senate, which I think is the
Speaker 1: best that they could possibly hope run the situation. What's
Speaker 1: your theory abortion? It's abord, it would be abortion. I
Speaker 1: think it would be the I mean, look, I actually
Speaker 1: had this pulled up in order to pivot the discussion.
Speaker 1: But actually give us exactly thirty five percent of the
Speaker 1: vote is in in the state of Kentucky right now.
Speaker 1: The abortion Amendment, which would state there is no right
Speaker 1: to an abortion or any requirement to fund abortion in
Speaker 1: the state constitution, is currently the no is leading in
Speaker 1: fifty six percent. In order to make sure that the
Speaker 1: so look, you have a Republican state where rand Paul
Speaker 1: was literally declared the winner, where they are underwater by fifteen.
Speaker 1: Look again, thirty five percent of the votes that are in.
Speaker 1: I do think that if the Dems hold on to
Speaker 1: the Senate, it will be one hundred percent attributable to
Speaker 1: abortion and Crystal we will have to frankly say, hey,
Speaker 1: you know that one hundred million or so that you
Speaker 1: spent on abortion, not only again that is a big if,
Speaker 1: and I do think we should really hold it, especially
Speaker 1: with the West coast. Like, given the fact that Arizona
Speaker 1: and Nevada are going to come in so late, some
Speaker 1: of our discussion just could reflect the East coast bias.
Speaker 1: I do think those are really going to change, and
Speaker 1: it could reflect that earlier. I mean, I do like's
Speaker 1: be clear, like no one is saying this is the
Speaker 1: reality that's happening. But if things continue to trend in
Speaker 1: this direction, I would say abortion is the pivot point.
Speaker 1: But I would also say, and this kind of ties
Speaker 1: into the candidate quality issue, it's a general sense of
Speaker 1: GOP extremism with these specific candidates. Yeah. I mean, first
Speaker 1: of all, to your point talker about Kentucky, this is
Speaker 1: why I love direct democracy. Like, one of the data
Speaker 1: points that always stuck out in my mind was when
Speaker 1: Donald Trump won Florida in twenty twenty, you also had
Speaker 1: a fifteen dollars minimum wage, a direct valvotative passed with
Speaker 1: sixty percent of the vote. So and to your point, Crystal, yeah,
Speaker 1: I mean, look, so you have a Republican Supreme Court
Speaker 1: overturning roll versus weight, and then another thing that stuck
Speaker 1: out to me after the fact. I don't know how
Speaker 1: many Americans know this, but it really stuck with me.
Speaker 1: You had a vote in the House on gay marriage.
Speaker 1: One hundred and fifty seven Republicans voted against it, right
Speaker 1: one hundred Here, one hundred and ninety five Republicans voted
Speaker 1: against a right to contraception. So they want, you know,
Speaker 1: a state like Mississippi or Alabama or whoever, to be
Speaker 1: able to say no, you can't buy condoms, you can't
Speaker 1: buy the pill, you can't buy Plan B. So this
Speaker 1: is I mean, look, and this is why I've always
Speaker 1: argued Democrats need to embrace freedom, they need to be
Speaker 1: the onest. Actually, no, we are in favor freedom. They
Speaker 1: are not in favor freedom. You've got a candidate who
Speaker 1: has been using that rhetoric and it seems like kind
Speaker 1: of a wash. But this is Gavin Newsom's whole play
Speaker 1: because he's spending right a lot money on ads in Florida.
Speaker 1: But I think that the broad thing that gets I
Speaker 1: think this gets to why this political moment is frustrating,
Speaker 1: because Republicans are being rewarded because they're out of power,
Speaker 1: and our system punishes whoever is in the driver's seat
Speaker 1: if Republicans do well, Democrats are doing well in twenty
Speaker 1: twenty six or twenty twenty eight, and vice versa and
Speaker 1: vice versa. And if we're looking at previous areas of
Speaker 1: American politics, you just won Reagan just won FDR just one,
Speaker 1: Kennedy LBJ just one. And just the lack of anyone
Speaker 1: just to actually control it is the central issue. So
Speaker 1: here's an interesting insight from nay con I was trying
Speaker 1: to bring up that actually speaks to J. Miles Holman's point.
Speaker 1: He says, quote, so far Democrats are running ahead of
Speaker 1: expectations outside of Florida in places with a meaningful vote,
Speaker 1: which may still be contaminated with early votes, but they
Speaker 1: are running way behind in Florida, so it is almost
Speaker 1: entirely canceling out. So the parathetical is worth worth taking seriously,
Speaker 1: which is that there isn't much that's unequivocally done outside
Speaker 1: of Florida right now, so early vote contamination could risk
Speaker 1: remains very real in terms of the North Carolina results
Speaker 1: and all those things that were here. Let me get
Speaker 1: New Hampshire of course accepted, given their unique state there.
Speaker 1: Let me give you a couple of the specific numbers
Speaker 1: from New Hampshire, because that's the one that's probably the
Speaker 1: most clean since they don't have a significant early vote
Speaker 1: in I don't know any of these towns. I'm sorry,
Speaker 1: I'm probably gonna butcher all of the names. Not a
Speaker 1: big New Hampshire stand I mean, I have no problem
Speaker 1: with New Hampshire. I just don't know the state that well.
Speaker 1: That's what I'm trying to say here, Okay, Brookline, Biden
Speaker 1: was plus seven. Maggie Hassen is plus nine. In New Ipswich.
Speaker 1: I loved you. I love that sounds delicious, by the way, Yeah,
Speaker 1: I would love an Ipswich. Hey live for your head.
Speaker 1: I love Trump won by thirty six. Bullduck is actually
Speaker 1: outperforming Trump a bit plus forty in a Cippy Trump
Speaker 1: plus twenty one, Bullduck underperforming him a little bit plus nineteen.
Speaker 1: In Sumrsworth Biden plus fourteen, Hassen plus twenty. In Hillsboro,
Speaker 1: Trump plus eight, Bullduck underperforming him plus so Bolduck plus three.
Speaker 1: In the state capitol of Concord, which has ninety four
Speaker 1: percent reporting, Hassen is at sixty seven percent. Bullduck is
Speaker 1: at thirty point nine percent. So D plus thirty seven
Speaker 1: in a town that last time around was D plus
Speaker 1: thirty two. So it looks like a pretty consistent trend
Speaker 1: in New Hampshire. I got one more for you here
Speaker 1: in this thread. This is from Ryan Matsumoto, who is
Speaker 1: a contributing analyst at Inside Elections Bylines at five thirty eight,
Speaker 1: et cetera, et cetera. Anyway, I just want to give
Speaker 1: the guy credit. The town of Fitzwilliam, New Hampshire is
Speaker 1: now ninety five percent reporting, so very close to all in.
Speaker 1: Boldock is narrowly ahead here forty nine point one percent
Speaker 1: to Hassince forty seven point eight percent. That's our plus
Speaker 1: one point three in a town that was our one
Speaker 1: point two in twenty twenty. So Boldock is not outperforming Trump,
Speaker 1: but Hassen seems to be outperforming Biden. And this was
Speaker 1: one of the other questions is like, you know, part
Speaker 1: of what we've seen in twenty sixteen, twenty eighteen, and
Speaker 1: twenty twenty is that Democrats are super enthusiastic. They you know,
Speaker 1: push their margins up in their places, but it's matched
Speaker 1: by Republican enthusiasm in rural counties, at least in New Hampshire.
Speaker 1: Based on the numbers we have right now, you know,
Speaker 1: this looks very good for Maggie Hassen and Democrats have
Speaker 1: to be encouraged that at the very least they're not
Speaker 1: going to be facing the red tsunami that they were
Speaker 1: starting to really be afraid of. Yes point so far
Speaker 1: and what we've seen, so we have a little bit
Speaker 1: more vote coming from Georgia that I can read off.
Speaker 1: We got about forty eight percent of the vote in,
Speaker 1: so we're getting a bit of a better idea and
Speaker 1: it is tightening it up exactly as we expected. So
Speaker 1: we've got two point one million votes that are in
Speaker 1: right now. Warnock is currently at fifty percent, herschel Walker
Speaker 1: at forty eight percent, and exactly to the point that
Speaker 1: you make Crystal only one point seven percent of the
Speaker 1: vote right now going to the libertarian So we are
Speaker 1: talking at a margin here of really we got one million,
Speaker 1: fifty seven thousand votes there for Raphael Warnock one million,
Speaker 1: nineteen thousand votes for herschel Wats. So it's a dead heat.
Speaker 1: I mean, it is close, and the closer and the
Speaker 1: more that we get to the full counting of you know,
Speaker 1: all of the mail in ballots and absentee and all
Speaker 1: that counted along with in day. We are just going
Speaker 1: to see that. It's I think it's going to take
Speaker 1: a while in terms of go ahead, go ahead, Kyle, Yeah.
Speaker 1: Can I give you guys an Ohio update real fast? Yees? Yeah,
Speaker 1: go ahead. So we have thirty four percent in and
Speaker 1: Ryan leads Vance by ten points right now. Wow. But
Speaker 1: I will say this is effectively this is like the
Speaker 1: blue miragement networks in Ohio. The way they count the votes,
Speaker 1: and so what you're going to see is as more
Speaker 1: votes come in, Vance is going to close that gap.
Speaker 1: Close that gap, close that gap, and then the question
Speaker 1: is will you overtake him? And if so by how much? Look?
Speaker 1: I think what goes to what Miles said, which is
Speaker 1: that you know he was Trump was down by ten
Speaker 1: then the vote came in. Actually, if I recall from Ohio,
Speaker 1: Trump ended up beating expectations in a historic degree. There
Speaker 1: was I forget exactly how to pronounce is it mahoning,
Speaker 1: mahoning count mahon mahone counting, Sorry, no, mahoning, You're right,
Speaker 1: all right, I don't mean any disrespect. The point is
Speaker 1: is that Trump won it in twenty sixteen or sorry,
Speaker 1: it didn't win in twenty sixteen, it was seen as
Speaker 1: a belt. Whether he ended up winning it in twenty twenty,
Speaker 1: which was seen as a big kind of it was
Speaker 1: an affirmation of his candidacy because I think there was
Speaker 1: like some GM things that were going on there. My
Speaker 1: point being that that didn't come until later in the night.
Speaker 1: So that's something that we have to pay attention to
Speaker 1: in general. Though I guess I'm being this is just
Speaker 1: a stark reminder of like how long it can take
Speaker 1: on electnight for some of this stuff to come in,
Speaker 1: especially given the dynamics of the way that people all vote. Now,
Speaker 1: we really don't have that many competitive states with all
Speaker 1: that much the vote in, so I'll just read it off.
Speaker 1: Pennsylvania is only at nine percent, Fetterman is up by
Speaker 1: seventy five. So if you really want to cling to Hope,
Speaker 1: stop the count. I guess if you're a pahm Ohio,
Speaker 1: you said only thirty five percent of the vote in
Speaker 1: Georgia right now is in forty nine. The real stunner,
Speaker 1: I guess is North Carolina Crystal. You've got Sherry Beasley
Speaker 1: up by at fifty percent to Ted Budd's forty eight percent,
Speaker 1: and that's with about sixty percent of the vote which
Speaker 1: is in now again, you could have the eve vote,
Speaker 1: the election day vote. It just comes in massively at
Speaker 1: the end and it's a total blowout. But I have
Speaker 1: a little bit closer there than I think a lot
Speaker 1: of other people had anticipated for the House of Representatives.
Speaker 1: Just to keep everybody updated, I don't have the official number,
Speaker 1: but you do have a decent amount of flips which
Speaker 1: have happened here so far. I guess the best one
Speaker 1: to go with is actually the New York Times needle.
Speaker 1: If everybody will remember this, Oh, I remember the needle,
Speaker 1: the infamous needle. It took it away, right, No, no no,
Speaker 1: they took it away from it. They took they did
Speaker 1: actually bring it back. So then they brought it here.
Speaker 1: Oh no, wow, the needle crashed out. That's actually kind
Speaker 1: of crazy. Oh really, okay, I was just looking stopped
Speaker 1: the count, all right, two minutes ago. I looked at
Speaker 1: the needle. I took a little peek, and it was
Speaker 1: in toss up, but it was a little bit towards
Speaker 1: the Democrats, but really tossed up, right, Yeah, I was
Speaker 1: talking about the House. It was like it was lean Republican,
Speaker 1: but it wasn't like likely. We probably was just over
Speaker 1: and lean Republicans. Five have a real time updating thing,
Speaker 1: though New York Times is the only one, the only honestly,
Speaker 1: it is very useful, but it is also it crashes
Speaker 1: all the time. And of course all the Dems freaking
Speaker 1: out from twenty sixteen uh that were saying this. Nate Cone,
Speaker 1: by the way, for those who are needle watchers, says
Speaker 1: we need to pull the needle off. Louisiana appears to
Speaker 1: have been coded as Democratic at some point, adding an
Speaker 1: extra seat for them. All other streates would be unaffective.
Speaker 1: Come on, you guys, have one job on. You can't.
Speaker 1: You can't. This is why they took away at the
Speaker 1: needle in the first place. Yeah, that's why we can't
Speaker 1: have nice thing Spira there, Okay, come on, I've got
Speaker 1: I've got a few more New Hampshire notes for you.
Speaker 1: More positive indications for New Hampshire Democrats because it wasn't
Speaker 1: just the Senate race where they were concerned about. There
Speaker 1: were a number of congressional races they were also concerned about.
Speaker 1: And it looks like Democrats at the House level also
Speaker 1: outperforming Biden in the state of New Hampshire. New Hampshire,
Speaker 1: so you have Representative Papas remains ahead in Rochester, which
Speaker 1: Trump carried. This is from Daniel and Shanean with eighty
Speaker 1: six percent, and you have Representative Custer in Concord with
Speaker 1: eighty eight percent reporting also running ahead of Biden. So
Speaker 1: in terms of the House seats there, that's also positive
Speaker 1: news for them. I was also looking at the sort
Speaker 1: of ticket splitting dynamic, and you've got a pretty you know,
Speaker 1: pretty sizable gap both on the Kemp the Kemp Warnock voter,
Speaker 1: you've got a lot of those. You also have a
Speaker 1: good number of Shapiro Oz voters as well, already in
Speaker 1: the early vote. Now again in Pennsylvania it's all mail in,
Speaker 1: so it's like Shapiro has eighty three percent, Federman has
Speaker 1: seventy eight percent or something crazy like that, which is
Speaker 1: obviously not going to be the end result, but it
Speaker 1: shows you, even in that early mail in vote, that
Speaker 1: you do have a significant population of ticket splitters who
Speaker 1: could end up being determinative in these races. Yeah, that's
Speaker 1: pretty interesting. It is factual vote. I mean they vote
Speaker 1: based on vibes. Yeah, right, isn't that really what it is?
Speaker 1: I listened, Kyle, I made peace with that a while ago,
Speaker 1: and to be honest, I like it. I'm going to
Speaker 1: be honest, I kind of like it. I like being surprised.
Speaker 1: I like the fact that people are not as into
Speaker 1: all of this as everybody, and that the things that
Speaker 1: people vote on make them idiosyncratic and truly human. So
Speaker 1: I think that's actually a good story for America. It's
Speaker 1: a hopeful story. I mean, the I think the we
Speaker 1: this was a discussion we were talking about earlier about
Speaker 1: how the electorate fundamentally changed in twenty sixteen. And look,
Speaker 1: I mean, you can like or dislike how exactly things
Speaker 1: are trending. But what I like about that, Marshall, is
Speaker 1: like it just shows that a lot of things are
Speaker 1: up for grabs in a way that people don't as
Speaker 1: stuck as we are. To see Florida become a red
Speaker 1: state in my lifetime, and to see Wisconsin be one
Speaker 1: of those places which we now have to watch as
Speaker 1: a bell Weather say, I mean, I remember Ohio as well.
Speaker 1: Barack Obama won the state of Ohio Florida. Obama won
Speaker 1: of Florida in two thousand and eight, by three points,
Speaker 1: and he won it by two points in twenty twelve.
Speaker 1: Ten years later, we're sitting here at the desk and
Speaker 1: we're like re marveling at a fifteen point win for
Speaker 1: a Republican candidate. So it just shows me like, actually,
Speaker 1: nothing is static. Everything can change, and you know, it
Speaker 1: may not change necessarily the way that all of us
Speaker 1: necessarily want, but they can't change, and they can change
Speaker 1: significantly in a relatively short period of time. Yeah, I'm
Speaker 1: not sure it's so interesting because your point is like
Speaker 1: the fact that things can change could be a good thing.
Speaker 1: But like I kind of said earlier, I I want
Speaker 1: some I want I want someone to win a state
Speaker 1: they weren't expected to win and then actually be able
Speaker 1: to have a governing agenda. Basically the pendulum swinging back
Speaker 1: and forth for thirty years because everyone's just pissed off.
Speaker 1: That isn't that doesn't feel great. This is the you know,
Speaker 1: this another debate Kyle and I've had like eighty three times,
Speaker 1: both publicly and privately, But clearly, the neoliberal consensus is dying,
Speaker 1: at least among the public. It's dead, even as they
Speaker 1: you know, hold on to like Joe Biden as president.
Speaker 1: Clearly they still hold on to power. But what you
Speaker 1: see in these swing elections is just a rejection of
Speaker 1: this paradigm, whether it's being offered by Democrats or being
Speaker 1: offered by Republicans. It's like, ah, to help with to
Speaker 1: hell with this, We're going to try something different. And
Speaker 1: so I think until you have whatever the new paradigm,
Speaker 1: whatever the new era is actually born and like power consolidated,
Speaker 1: you're going to continue having these swings. Although I mean, listen,
Speaker 1: we have to say, like if Democrats outperform tonight in
Speaker 1: the way that might be happening, if New Hampshire is
Speaker 1: in any indication of the rest of the country, which
Speaker 1: is a big if and caveats, et cetera, et cetera.
Speaker 1: We can't deny normally the party in power in modern history,
Speaker 1: they get shellacked in the midterms, and I think it
Speaker 1: is a remarkable indictment of the Republican Party that they
Speaker 1: managed to look like this should not be in question.
Speaker 1: You have seventy percent of the country saying the country
Speaker 1: is on the wrong track. You have inflation at very
Speaker 1: high levels, you have concerns about inflation and concerns about
Speaker 1: the economy at very high levels. You have a majority
Speaker 1: of Americans saying that gas prices are hurting them financially.
Speaker 1: Right now as we speak, it's like sixty some percent
Speaker 1: saying this is hurting me. Right now, you have a
Speaker 1: president whose approval rating is quite low. It's in like
Speaker 1: the low forties right now. You look at those numbers,
Speaker 1: this come should not be in doubt. And so when
Speaker 1: I look at that, it's not. Listen, I'm gonna have
Speaker 1: to give some credits to Democrats and their strategy was
Speaker 1: better than I thought if this ends up being good
Speaker 1: for them, But I really think it is a thorough
Speaker 1: indictment of the direction of the Republican Party, which you know,
Speaker 1: really motivated people to turn out to the ballot box
Speaker 1: in a way that they normally don't in the midterm
Speaker 1: election to protect the party in power. Is it is
Speaker 1: actually fascinating to see demon go ahead, Yeah, I want to.
Speaker 1: I want to switch policy for a secon because you've
Speaker 1: talked about these previous like midterm elections, right, so we
Speaker 1: referenced the nineteen nineties, Bill Clinton gets like the first
Speaker 1: big modern shellacking, and then two years later the era
Speaker 1: of big government is over. Right, there's this big correction
Speaker 1: twenty ten, another shellacking. Obama's ambition just goes away and
Speaker 1: the presidency goes into defense. That helps you win re election,
Speaker 1: but you know, the hope and change room is over.
Speaker 1: What do you guys see as like the not what
Speaker 1: you want? Right? But what takeaway do you think the
Speaker 1: Biden people are going to take from? Let's say this
Speaker 1: like moderate tsunami we're talking. Yeah, so culture first, First
Speaker 1: of all, I love that question because I was transitioning
Speaker 1: right into the thing I wanted to bring up, which was,
Speaker 1: you know, let's say the dynamic we're talking about now
Speaker 1: holds the rest of the night and the Democrats do
Speaker 1: better than expected. I mean, I really think it just
Speaker 1: it proves that if you materially deliver for the American
Speaker 1: people to any degree, even if it's just a little bit,
Speaker 1: they're like, oh thank god, okay, I'll reward you. So
Speaker 1: let me make the case real quick. And I know
Speaker 1: this is an unpopular case. I agree that on politics
Speaker 1: Biden is a zombies half dead not good, but on
Speaker 1: policy he's way better than I thought he would be.
Speaker 1: My I mean, I had nonexistent hopes when Biden's approval
Speaker 1: rating was thirty three percent and he was doing nothing.
Speaker 1: I was like, this is what it's going to be
Speaker 1: like the rest of his time in office, and I'm
Speaker 1: going crazy over here. Then what do we get? Biden
Speaker 1: comes out and pardons we defenders. He pulls the troops
Speaker 1: out of Afghanistan. He does an executive order that raised
Speaker 1: the federal minimum wage to fifteen dollars an hour, which
Speaker 1: impacts three hundred thousand workers who are federal contractors and
Speaker 1: federal employees. He has a pro union n LRB, which
Speaker 1: has allowed this wave of unionization now to sweep the country.
Speaker 1: He's appointed anti monopolist Lena Khan to the FTC. She's
Speaker 1: currently blocking mergers. He does the Chips Act, which on
Speaker 1: shore is three hundred and fifty thousand jobs. He does
Speaker 1: the Pack Deck, which is healthcare for veterans exposed to
Speaker 1: toxic burn pits. He does gun reform, bipartisan gun reform,
Speaker 1: which includes money for red flag laws, money for school security,
Speaker 1: money for mental health treatment. He killed zawaharive Haad of
Speaker 1: al Qaeda. We know inflation is a big problem, but
Speaker 1: also at the same time, we do currently have low unemployment.
Speaker 1: Kataji Brown Jackson is on the Supreme Court. And then
Speaker 1: probably most importantly, you have the IRA, which lowered prescription
Speaker 1: drug costs for seniors. It has made an America provision
Speaker 1: for clean energy technology. There's a fifteen percent called Riminimum
Speaker 1: tax rate, a one percent tax on stock buybacks. Obamacare
Speaker 1: expansion now covers three million more people. And I mean, look,
Speaker 1: I only gave you like maybe half the list here.
Speaker 1: I can go on. But the fact of the matter is,
Speaker 1: I do think that people, when they get materially helped,
Speaker 1: they go, Okay, good, Now that's all I want from you.
Speaker 1: So now I will reward you. I will go vote
Speaker 1: for your party. Joe Biden should hire you, Kyle. It's
Speaker 1: one of the most eloquent defenses I heard of his presidency.
Speaker 1: Yet look, bros, there's another. There's another, There's another. There's
Speaker 1: another interesting takeaway here that I want people because I
Speaker 1: always I always get really annoyed when people talk about, oh,
Speaker 1: like the problem her politics is there's just like a
Speaker 1: bunch of older people, and you know, we need your incumbents.
Speaker 1: And this Joe Biden on paper should not have done anything.
Speaker 1: You just articulate. You would look at Barack Obama like
Speaker 1: he's I don't think I wrote things either, right, So
Speaker 1: I and you know, if you talk to I get
Speaker 1: really like red pill and people say, like, man, if
Speaker 1: we saw a bunch of Yoka guys like what was
Speaker 1: his name? The guy from with Carolina who lost to
Speaker 1: Madison cold. So I think I think they are like
Speaker 1: just what I always thinking of, Like, God fucking forbid,
Speaker 1: there's just something hopeful, I think. I think I think
Speaker 1: that's the thing which is hopeful there, which is that
Speaker 1: end of visuals matter more than you kind of would think.
Speaker 1: And I think there's something. I think there's something there.
Speaker 1: I don't know what I think on this question. But
Speaker 1: the other theory would be actually that it doesn't have
Speaker 1: so much to do with Biden as it does with
Speaker 1: the sort of like shifting of the era, because if
Speaker 1: you look at Joe Biden over the course of his career,
Speaker 1: you would not think this would be his presidents, right.
Speaker 1: I mean, he goes with the winds. That is, that
Speaker 1: is what he has always done, is he centered himself
Speaker 1: in the middle of the Democratic Party, tried to center
Speaker 1: himself in the middle of the electorate, and then done
Speaker 1: the thing that he thinks that you know that entails
Speaker 1: with a like basket of cliches and euphemisms or whatever
Speaker 1: from his family lore that he uses as his kind
Speaker 1: of guideposts. So to me, it's more a sign of
Speaker 1: the times that he's had a he has in certain things,
Speaker 1: he has consequentially shifted the direction of the country and
Speaker 1: in particular, I mean the NLRB and the anti trade stuff,
Speaker 1: I mean not anti trade, the anti trust stuff in particular,
Speaker 1: and and has a trade policy that is not unlike
Speaker 1: Trump's trade policy, to be perfectly honest with you, So
Speaker 1: you know, to me, there's a question or okay, is
Speaker 1: that Biden and he actually connects to an older ares
Speaker 1: more of the New Deal areas bringing some of that
Speaker 1: into his presidency and sort of like digging it up
Speaker 1: in the depths and his experience in his age is
Speaker 1: actually a benefit. Or is it that he is reflecting
Speaker 1: that we're in a different moment in America and that's
Speaker 1: where some of these policy shifts ultimately come from. I honestly,
Speaker 1: I'm sort of like on the fence about which one
Speaker 1: of those things are. But I think it could be.
Speaker 1: I think it could ultimately be either one. Let me
Speaker 1: say what they want. They won't learn the things that
Speaker 1: you just said, though even If that's true, what they're
Speaker 1: going to think is abortion in January sixth, that you know,
Speaker 1: I mean they're closing. Let me just their closing pitch
Speaker 1: was the top of the bit. Their closing pitch was
Speaker 1: democracies on the ballot January sixth election deniers. And you
Speaker 1: know what, they're not wrong because when you do look
Speaker 1: at these races, like part of why Maggie Hassen appears
Speaker 1: to be cleaning up here is because Don Bulldock is
Speaker 1: this like psycho election denier. Right. Part of the reason
Speaker 1: why you have Democrats, the base of the Democratic Party
Speaker 1: so energized to go out and vote and protect democratic
Speaker 1: power is because they truly do fear that there is
Speaker 1: like a democracy ending potential event if they don't go
Speaker 1: and do that. And that's why you do have these
Speaker 1: midterm elections with much higher enthusiasm for the party in
Speaker 1: power than you normally do. So, you know, I don't
Speaker 1: think that they're wrong to look at some of how
Speaker 1: they went all in on January's all, when all in
Speaker 1: on extremism closed with democracy on the ballot, given that
Speaker 1: Republicans were elevating so many election deniers. So, I mean,
Speaker 1: I mostly agree with what you said, the only counterpoint
Speaker 1: I would make is if, for example, we get the
Speaker 1: numbers on this election and we see that there was
Speaker 1: a giant surge in young people showing up to vote. Yeah,
Speaker 1: and I would say, you know what, maybe this has
Speaker 1: something to do with the student loan debt reduction, and
Speaker 1: maybe it just has to do with like weed pardons
Speaker 1: for example. So that's substantive. And then the second point is,
Speaker 1: even if I grant you the point you made, I
Speaker 1: do think that, you know, running on the abortion stuff,
Speaker 1: even tho I don't think it should be the whole
Speaker 1: picture of what they ran on, it is substantive because
Speaker 1: it's fundamentally an argument for No, we want to be
Speaker 1: the freedom people. If we're if we're now descheduling weed,
Speaker 1: that means we want to increase your social freedoms. We're
Speaker 1: the pro choice party, we want to increase your social freedoms.
Speaker 1: You know. And again, this is an argument I'd love
Speaker 1: to see them embrace wholeheartedly. Because my politics, you can
Speaker 1: boil it down to, I believe in economic patriotism and
Speaker 1: freedom on the social front, social freedom, and so I
Speaker 1: think those two things together are I mean, are winner
Speaker 1: could be an interesting thing Okay, so it is nine
Speaker 1: pm or it's nine point nine specifically, so that we
Speaker 1: off everything that has now closed. Arizona nine pm Eastern
Speaker 1: Standard time are officially closed. It's about to get fun
Speaker 1: here people. Colorado officially closed, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska,
Speaker 1: New Mexico, New York, which, by the way, we have
Speaker 1: to watch because that was also predicted as possibly closer
Speaker 1: than people thought, especially with Leez Elden and Kathy Hochel,
Speaker 1: North Dakota, South Dakota, Texas, Wisconsin, and Wyoming. So Georgia,
Speaker 1: New York isn't going to count their votes, I like,
Speaker 1: didn't like two months. They'll don't hold your breath host
Speaker 1: Inauguration day. They will eventually inform US election. Fifty eight
Speaker 1: percent of the vote now currently and in Georgia, so
Speaker 1: Warnock currently at fifty one percent, Herschel Walker at forty seven.
Speaker 1: But there was a big dump from a major Democratic
Speaker 1: area there. In terms of the other ones that we
Speaker 1: should pay attention to, Pennsylvania, John Fetterman soon up there,
Speaker 1: but only thirteen percent of the vote. New Hampshire holding
Speaker 1: steady at sixteen. Ohio is at forty one things much
Speaker 1: tighter now. It's at fifty one and forty nine for
Speaker 1: jam very VERYA. That's true, but there is an interesting
Speaker 1: again ticket splitting dynamic in Ohio. A third of the
Speaker 1: Ohio voted huge gap of more than twenty percentage points
Speaker 1: between the march and the Governor's race and the marchin
Speaker 1: in the center race. So you have a lot of
Speaker 1: people who are voting for Dwine the Republic, he's already
Speaker 1: been declared victory of victorious in Ohio for the governor's race,
Speaker 1: and then are voting for Tim Ryan. Let's talk about
Speaker 1: Tim We have Tim Rynan at all. Tim Ryan thoughts, Oh,
Speaker 1: I think he ran a phenomenal campaign, and I'm not
Speaker 1: I'm really not a big fan of Tim Ryan. I
Speaker 1: mean I remember back during the when he ran for President.
Speaker 1: Tim Ryan, Yeah, meditation. He was like us went after Bernie.
Speaker 1: It was like, we don't have to yell at shirts
Speaker 1: that said stop yelling or whatever. We don't have to
Speaker 1: yell at ye. He's signed on to the list on
Speaker 1: the Medicare for All Caucus. So he endorsed support for
Speaker 1: the Medicare for All bill in the House, and then
Speaker 1: he was interviewed later on and asked to U sport
Speaker 1: Medicare for all. He was like, no, I hate that policy,
Speaker 1: and so I have big, big issues with Tim Ryan.
Speaker 1: But in terms of politics, I think he's run a
Speaker 1: phenomenal campaign. I think he's been really aggressive, which is
Speaker 1: something that we don't often see from Democrats. I think
Speaker 1: he's kind of correctly portrayed jd Vance as an extremist
Speaker 1: and a Trump asked Kisser quite literally, I think he
Speaker 1: said those words on stage. Trump said that about jade
Speaker 1: Van and then yes, hey, remember when he said that thing. Ye,
Speaker 1: So yeah, I just thought he ran a good campaign. Yeah, Well,
Speaker 1: I don't know. And that is the question is, like,
Speaker 1: I mean, clearly Tim right did some things right because
Speaker 1: he's outperforming the other dude. Yeah. I don't even know
Speaker 1: who it was running for the I think it is
Speaker 1: a woman running for governor for the Nan Whaley is
Speaker 1: that whould be lckamist, gender and whatever canceled anyway, So
Speaker 1: he did definitely did some things right to be outperforming
Speaker 1: the other Democrat that he's sharing a ticket with statewide.
Speaker 1: And then the question is how much of it is
Speaker 1: like what did Tim Ryan to write and how much
Speaker 1: of it is what did JD vance do wrong? Right?
Speaker 1: What is it that voters didn't like about him his platform?
Speaker 1: Do they view him as extreme? Did they view him
Speaker 1: as untattouched? Did they view him as like Yeah, I
Speaker 1: mean it is It does have this sort of gross
Speaker 1: feel that you were the guy that was like the
Speaker 1: principled critic of Trump and then all of a sudden
Speaker 1: you're like, oh, I love you and please endorse me
Speaker 1: and basically owes his totally owes his victory in the
Speaker 1: Republican primary to securing the Trump endorsement. So, you know,
Speaker 1: I don't know the answer to that question, but it
Speaker 1: certainly has to be like a little bit of both there. Well,
Speaker 1: Tad to your point, Christ it kind of gets into
Speaker 1: the weird dynamic. It seems like Tim Ryan because of
Speaker 1: the way like JD's had to kind of like shift
Speaker 1: his position around Tim Ryan kind of rank. And you
Speaker 1: almost would think that the JD's the incumbent right now,
Speaker 1: right that's how like aggressive at Tim Bran's being like
Speaker 1: And I think there's probably like there's probably a lesson
Speaker 1: there when this is I think your point on aggression
Speaker 1: and how like that wo make it. It might help though,
Speaker 1: because because Ohio is such a red state you should
Speaker 1: treat it as incumbents see. So it makes it like
Speaker 1: a little bit more up there. So some interesting call
Speaker 1: out Sarah Huckabee Sanders, press secretary officially Arkansas's governor. I
Speaker 1: told Chuck Schumer has now won his fifth term to
Speaker 1: become the New York longest Senator in the history of
Speaker 1: the state of New York. He's only he's a young man,
Speaker 1: he's only seventy three. So I predict that is not
Speaker 1: the last election that we will see him. By the
Speaker 1: way he's taken. In the Democratic North Carolina. What we
Speaker 1: were all taking a look at, Ted budd has actually
Speaker 1: now gone ahead and pulled ahead in the race there.
Speaker 1: It's still closed, so it's fifty and fifty nine. Again
Speaker 1: we all fell for the Blue mirage. It's a joke.
Speaker 1: Sixty eight percent of the vote coming in there now
Speaker 1: and things starting to trend a little bit more in
Speaker 1: that direction. Georgia, I'm keeping an eye on it. At
Speaker 1: no surprise. It gives me great pleasure to say all this.
Speaker 1: Immediately after the polls closed, Fox News went ahead and
Speaker 1: called the race for Greg Abbott over Beto Rourke. Is
Speaker 1: it's amazing to consider him four years later. Right, twenty
Speaker 1: eighteen was his big moment. He raised more money than God.
Speaker 1: I remember rocking around Marshall this when we were living
Speaker 1: in Adams Morgan, and I remember seeing Beto stickers everywhere.
Speaker 1: He was raising so much money. Anytime I visited Texas
Speaker 1: at that time, if you landed in Austin, you'd see
Speaker 1: Beto T shirts. He was irrelevant in the year twenty
Speaker 1: twenty two. And it's a real fall from grace for him,
Speaker 1: for Stacy Abrams as well, like many of the twenty
Speaker 1: eighteen stars did not pan out at all, built huge
Speaker 1: campaigns and fundraising dollars on the backs of that, and look,
Speaker 1: I mean it's it's a huge failure for the quote
Speaker 1: unquote like the stars of twenty eighteen who didn't actually
Speaker 1: win was a couple. Yeah, it's kind of it's funny,
Speaker 1: Like I live in Austin now obviously, so like I've
Speaker 1: been thinking, there's a very little like Beto energy, and
Speaker 1: he was so much there's this very little like Beto energy,
Speaker 1: like very I mean, there are signs, but Stephie doesn't
Speaker 1: feel like the environment. But two there's a there's a
Speaker 1: broad left and I think Beto was worse on this
Speaker 1: than Stacy Abrams. Was the transition he made from I'm
Speaker 1: a Texas guy to running nationally. There was no no
Speaker 1: reason for him to say I'm coming for your ars
Speaker 1: exactly right, and I'm talking about that. We're not talking policy,
Speaker 1: that literal phrasing, pointing to the camera and saying I'm
Speaker 1: doing it. Okay, it's over. So if you're going to
Speaker 1: be successful, hey, it's the second interviews has got people
Speaker 1: we don't like Ted Cruz, so candidate choice really matters.
Speaker 1: But just this, this is we're debating, like how much
Speaker 1: of this is local and national? This shows that there
Speaker 1: are cases where you can be a Texas Democrat, you
Speaker 1: can be a Georgia Democrat, but you have to can't
Speaker 1: be thinking of the programtic one you just got picked.
Speaker 1: The other thing is I think people really got the
Speaker 1: sense he was so forced on us by the media.
Speaker 1: Remember when he was on all like those magnanity I'm
Speaker 1: just born to be in standing on every table he
Speaker 1: could stand on for no reason, that Oprah, And then
Speaker 1: he started talking and people were like, oh, this is
Speaker 1: what all the hypees about, Like this is this is
Speaker 1: crazy and to your point. Yeah, if you're gonna run
Speaker 1: for governor of Texas, how the fuck are you going
Speaker 1: to say, Yeah, I'm coming to take your guns? Yeah,
Speaker 1: any other phrasing. I actually cannot think of a first
Speaker 1: It is Texas, the one thing you cannot say in Texas. Yeah,
Speaker 1: and he did it, and so yeah, I mean, I'm
Speaker 1: not surprised he was forced on us by the media.
Speaker 1: And I actually kind of liked the fact that Stacy
Speaker 1: Abrams and Better o'rourk overall, their national profile has just
Speaker 1: absolutely tanked, because again, this was the media trying to
Speaker 1: send up the air apparent to the like Okay, well
Speaker 1: we'll give you Hillary, and then okay, maybe Biden at
Speaker 1: the last minute will give you Okay, now they're going
Speaker 1: to try to do mayor Pede of course, and Conin Harris.
Speaker 1: But like the fact that so many of them have
Speaker 1: failed spectacularly leaves me hope that they're still room for
Speaker 1: like a candidate Obama back in two thousand and seven,
Speaker 1: two thousand and eight who kind of came out of
Speaker 1: nowhere and just captured the imagination, Like why couldn't Warnock
Speaker 1: do that in a presidential race for the Democrats? You
Speaker 1: know what, I mean, I mean, I think Kamala is
Speaker 1: another one that I would put on the list of
Speaker 1: failing spectacularly, right, Like, she might be vice president and
Speaker 1: they might try to force her because they don't feel
Speaker 1: like they can get past the first black woman vice
Speaker 1: president and we kind of, you know, have to go
Speaker 1: there next. But she's obviously already failed spectacular in terms
Speaker 1: of how the public feels about her. So yeah, I mean,
Speaker 1: the whole theory of the Democratic Party is like, Okay,
Speaker 1: let's just let's find the next Obama. Let's find someone
Speaker 1: who's you know, sort of like parrots his way of
Speaker 1: talking and his speech patterns, and let's just like put
Speaker 1: them out as this is the next one here. Congratulations
Speaker 1: to all of you. We've bestowed Beto and Pete and
Speaker 1: Kamala and Stacy Abrams upon you. And you know, it's
Speaker 1: no accident then that all of these media creations who
Speaker 1: really didn't have a lot of any like vision or
Speaker 1: substance or like charisma of their own to back it up,
Speaker 1: that they ultimately sort of fizzle out. So and it's
Speaker 1: a different thing for the Democratic base that was very
Speaker 1: excited about Stacy Abrams in Georgia last time. Aroundm very
Speaker 1: excited about Beta or Burke, but they also didn't really
Speaker 1: have a chance to sort of examine them at that point,
Speaker 1: you know, like they were excited about the dream of
Speaker 1: winning in Texas. The other thing I would say about
Speaker 1: that is, you know, I think the Democratic like Texas
Speaker 1: hopium has also significantly cooled and dimmed dramatically because of
Speaker 1: the shift in Latino voters absolutely right to Republicans. So,
Speaker 1: you know, the dream there always was you'd say, look
Speaker 1: at all these Latino voters and if we can get
Speaker 1: them to turn out, and we just need a registered
Speaker 1: in the vote, we get them to the polling places
Speaker 1: and they'll vote for Democrats. And now it's like will
Speaker 1: they vote for Democrats no longer clear? And in the
Speaker 1: Rio Grand Valley, as we have talked about and many
Speaker 1: others have talked about as well, huge shifts to the right.
Speaker 1: So that has kind of killed, let's put a real
Speaker 1: damper on the Democratic dreams in Texas for the moment. Well,
Speaker 1: there's one other thing that it's also killed because the
Speaker 1: real the way this, you know, Latinos like black men
Speaker 1: specifically going more for Republicans from twenty sixteen to twenty
Speaker 1: twenty was talked to us. This is just like Trump, right,
Speaker 1: if you were to build a guy in a lab
Speaker 1: who could do better for minorities, and let's hmit Romney,
Speaker 1: it wrote to be Donald Trump. The fact that Republicans
Speaker 1: are able to pull that off when Trump is not
Speaker 1: on the ballot, that's really the dream of that, because
Speaker 1: the hope the copium was Okay, let's get real, it's Trump.
Speaker 1: No one's shocked at that. But when generic Texas, what
Speaker 1: boomer Republicans pulling that up, pulling that up Myra Flores
Speaker 1: like whenever she won in her race. And actually, I
Speaker 1: mean I expect some of that data to come out
Speaker 1: of text. I'll be watching that very closely. So a
Speaker 1: little bit of an update. Vance is actually pulled ahead
Speaker 1: in the state of Ohio at fifty points three percent
Speaker 1: of the vote to Tim Ryans forty nine point seven.
Speaker 1: As we get more and more and North Carolina similarly,
Speaker 1: Ted Budd continued to maintaining the hold, although still only
Speaker 1: in thirty nine point four and forty eight point six.
Speaker 1: That's sixty nine percent of the vote. Okay, so I
Speaker 1: think a lot of the red votes I've got, I've
Speaker 1: got a John Ralston update out so this is the guy. Yeah,
Speaker 1: he's very well known. He has a great track record
Speaker 1: in Nevada in terms of predicting what the income is
Speaker 1: going to be. He watches the early vote in Nevada
Speaker 1: has long had a sizable like early mail in vote,
Speaker 1: so he looks at, okay, what's the parson and break
Speaker 1: down how much Republican, how much Democrat, how much of
Speaker 1: a Democratic firewell whatever. So in advance of election day,
Speaker 1: he actually predicted that Catherine Cortez Master, the Democrat, would
Speaker 1: hold on and win and that the Republican would win
Speaker 1: for governor. Then he started to see the votes come
Speaker 1: on an election day and was like, oh, I might
Speaker 1: need to really take that one back. So where we
Speaker 1: are now is he says, I've just confirmed that whatever
Speaker 1: mail has been dropped off today is not going to
Speaker 1: be tabulated tonight in Clark County. That's where Las Vegas
Speaker 1: is overwhelming bulk population is like the whole ballgame is
Speaker 1: Clark County, Indova may take until Thursday. Oh no, what
Speaker 1: will be tally tonight? Our election day in person and
Speaker 1: all the early mail votes already in the system save
Speaker 1: for provisional ballots. So he says it is very likely
Speaker 1: the top of the ticket Republicans will be ahead after
Speaker 1: tonight with thousands of mail ballots still uncounted, will they
Speaker 1: try to declare victory even though the races may not
Speaker 1: be over. What do you think? So, oh my god,
Speaker 1: there was Carrie Lake. We know what would happen. You
Speaker 1: know what would happen, but we don't know. Lo Salt
Speaker 1: is a little bit, he's not He's more of an
Speaker 1: establishment guy, like moved the state a couple of years ago.
Speaker 1: He's more of like a rich guy Republicans. So I'm
Speaker 1: not so sure that that would happen. I don't know
Speaker 1: anything about the gubernatorial Republicans. I don't know nominee in
Speaker 1: the state. So anyway, just heads up that that one
Speaker 1: that's going to flip Man and that's going to feed
Speaker 1: a whole bunch of We will probably not know tonight,
Speaker 1: and I mean, maybe it'll be clear, maybe it'll be
Speaker 1: Republicans are up by a whole lot. And it's basically,
Speaker 1: didn't he predict Democrats that Cortes Master is gonna hold
Speaker 1: on receipt yea his initial projection away a little bit? Yeah, okay, understood.
Speaker 1: But let's say there's a tiny lead for Republicans and
Speaker 1: you still have all these uncounted Clark County. Yeah, that's
Speaker 1: going to flip to the Democrats, and that's you're going
Speaker 1: to have like seventeen divisied susive documentaries coming out. Facts.
Speaker 1: That's fun. It's fun to live in America. So, I mean,
Speaker 1: I do think it's worse saying that other countries do
Speaker 1: manage to count their ballots, even with early vote and
Speaker 1: mail in ballots and whatever on election day. And still, yes, Brazil,
Speaker 1: we knew who won like right away, and we're talking
Speaker 1: about you know, like people voting in far flung plays.
Speaker 1: It's a big country. Whatever. I have a love I
Speaker 1: just you know, we should we should get our act
Speaker 1: together a little better on this. I have no reason
Speaker 1: you have to wait till freak Thursday to count these ballots. Guys.
Speaker 1: This is a good one for the panel. Guys. I
Speaker 1: have a love hate relationship with federalism and some things.
Speaker 1: I love it, but like on election and look, I
Speaker 1: get it, everybody like why it isn't design this way,
Speaker 1: but it's a pain in the ass, like you know,
Speaker 1: And I also talk about this with Republicans. Marshall's actually
Speaker 1: the one I remember I was at your house when
Speaker 1: you guys were all voting, and everybody in Oregon votes
Speaker 1: by mail. It's awesome. It's actually a much higher turnout.
Speaker 1: It's actually a lot easier. I understand drop boxes all stuff.
Speaker 1: Oregon in Washington like seem to have figured it out.
Speaker 1: They have way higher voter participation. It seems like everybody
Speaker 1: in the state likes it. And I'm not even saying
Speaker 1: necessarily voting by mail, but I was thinking about it
Speaker 1: today and I'm like, if I can log into my
Speaker 1: bank account with a text message, and I'm like, why
Speaker 1: is this so antiquate? Like so many other functions of
Speaker 1: our lives, like don't and I have modernized in a
Speaker 1: sense where voting just seems to be a shit show
Speaker 1: every single time that we cover it. And your nail, Crystal,
Speaker 1: you were some of them saying, is like it seems
Speaker 1: to have gotten where it does seem to be ever present,
Speaker 1: like you know, with two thousand, even two thousand and four,
Speaker 1: if I recall, I remember going to bed on two
Speaker 1: thousand and four election night and people saying, well, we're
Speaker 1: not going to know Ohio for a couple of days,
Speaker 1: and I don't think John Carrey conceded until the day after.
Speaker 1: So anyway, I mean, it's funny because so I voted
Speaker 1: in Austin on Friday. That's my first I've always just
Speaker 1: don't drop off like Neil Ballots. I waited like an
Speaker 1: hour in line, and I was I was early. I
Speaker 1: basically the answer is, I actually cannot talk of Republicans.
Speaker 1: I'mout this issue because Oregon it's been vote by mail forever.
Speaker 1: I'm sort of like, this is crazy, right, but I
Speaker 1: don't know, it's kind of I don't know. It's just
Speaker 1: sort of like I think it should be pretty like
Speaker 1: Ford to vote vote, and I agree should be, uh,
Speaker 1: it should be it should be federalized. I mean, I
Speaker 1: see that. It's just I know it's not gonna fly.
Speaker 1: But I mean, if you're designing a system from scratch,
Speaker 1: obviously you're gonna have the same rules everywhere. Right, We're
Speaker 1: not gonna be like, well, in miss Stape we count
Speaker 1: using donkeys. That is also why I do want to
Speaker 1: say that some of the g OPI talking points on
Speaker 1: stuff drive me into the story tradition a donkey ballot count.
Speaker 1: Dare you take that away from get back to the
Speaker 1: GOP legislators they're the ones who pass law saying you
Speaker 1: can't count early vote until elections. Why why well, we
Speaker 1: do not let me play, let me play doubles advocate,
Speaker 1: don't do that. I don't even know that I agree
Speaker 1: with this position, but somebody's got to take it. So
Speaker 1: if you did have the federal government basically overseeing the
Speaker 1: entire election infrastructure, it strikes me as likely that that
Speaker 1: would feed more conspiracy definitely would You're right, No, you're
Speaker 1: but I think Kyle, not just speak for you, but
Speaker 1: I think you put it accurate, normalized standards. So like
Speaker 1: maybe it's that like you have eight days early voting
Speaker 1: or this is that I think there'd be I guess,
Speaker 1: I guess the philosophical question, like I think people should
Speaker 1: think about it is like is our responsive, Like is
Speaker 1: our election system like not responsive enough? Or it should
Speaker 1: it be like more responsive? I think we should have
Speaker 1: more people voting, like I think that. I think the
Speaker 1: total thing one of my favorite things the Night Foundation
Speaker 1: has talked about a million times, So forgive me everybody,
Speaker 1: is the one hundred million American project where they talk
Speaker 1: about the one hundred million Americans is a compedter. Okay, right, Okay,
Speaker 1: it's a microsoft surface. It's not water. It's different than water.
Speaker 1: It's just trying to don't worry anyway. One of my
Speaker 1: favorite studies, one hundred Million Americans Project, which talks about
Speaker 1: one hundred million Americans who don't vote and the vast
Speaker 1: majority of Glenn Greenwald actually was tweeting about it today.
Speaker 1: The vast majority of people who don't vote are working class,
Speaker 1: are people of color, and most of them just think
Speaker 1: that their vote doesn't matter at all. It's sometimes there
Speaker 1: because you know, people will ask is it too hard
Speaker 1: to vote, and they're like no, like I could have,
Speaker 1: I wanted to, Like I just don't care. And that
Speaker 1: is something where Look, we seem to have very high
Speaker 1: turnout today. I think that's great, but if you look
Speaker 1: peck it to our historical standards, it still seems to
Speaker 1: be incredibly low. Even in twenty twenty, we s have
Speaker 1: much higher voter participation in this country. Yes, I know,
Speaker 1: not everybody could vote and all that, but if you look,
Speaker 1: you know, in other developing in western countries, even put
Speaker 1: aside the whole like it should be a national holiday,
Speaker 1: et cetera, discourse, people there just seem to care a
Speaker 1: lot more. I do think that's something that I don't
Speaker 1: even know if that's a federal problem that can but
Speaker 1: you know, I mean Trump has driven up turnout. No,
Speaker 1: he certainly has done that, and it hasn't been good
Speaker 1: for the country. So I mean, I would like turn
Speaker 1: out to be up, but for less or I'll take
Speaker 1: more turn if anything was going. I actually understand voting
Speaker 1: being mandatory, even more than I understand like jury Dewey
Speaker 1: being mandatory. You're going to make anything mandatory. I'm so
Speaker 1: against that. Voting isn't the way I'm not saying. I'm
Speaker 1: I'm saying if there is anything that you can make
Speaker 1: argument vote that should be mandatory, it would be that
Speaker 1: over jury duty or anything. All Right, I've got a
Speaker 1: Georgia update. It's okay. I'm pretty surprised by this one
Speaker 1: at this point with more than half of Georgia ballots counted.
Speaker 1: This is per Greg Bluestein, who we've had on rising
Speaker 1: and on breaking points as well. Republican Governor Kemp and
Speaker 1: Democratic center Rafael Warnock have almost an equal number of votes. Wow,
Speaker 1: whoa Warnock and Kemp equal number of votes? That is astonishing.
Speaker 1: I mean they're off by I mean it's very very
Speaker 1: little that there's a difference here. So Michel Walker's underperforming
Speaker 1: Stacy Abrams. Correct, wa actually herschel Walker right now. And
Speaker 1: this is because in the Senate race there is a
Speaker 1: libertarian candidate who's garnering about two percentage of two points
Speaker 1: of the vote right now. So herschel Walker actually has
Speaker 1: fewer votes than Stacy Abrams. That is crazy. Wow, that
Speaker 1: it really does. Shore. I mean, look, this again could
Speaker 1: be the cannon quality. At the same time, it's only
Speaker 1: fifty six percent. Do we know Brian Kemp is going
Speaker 1: to win? No, I agree, So if you've got Warnock
Speaker 1: running equal with him, this is looking to me like
Speaker 1: the question isn't who comes out on top, it's whether
Speaker 1: he avoids a or not. Great point, but the fifty
Speaker 1: fifty Oh go ahead, I have a call. It is
Speaker 1: with a call JB. Pritzker. Oh, big boy, big boy. Well,
Speaker 1: I mean this is a This is somebody who you
Speaker 1: know certainly thinks of himself as a potential presidential candidate
Speaker 1: in the future. This is someone who, uh similar to
Speaker 1: Gavin Newsom, although not quite as overt and shameless, has
Speaker 1: made some moves to try to position himself in the eventuality.
Speaker 1: If Biden doesn't run, I think he would be one
Speaker 1: who would run. He's also happens to be a billionaire,
Speaker 1: so uh, you know that never hurts in terms of
Speaker 1: our political system. And it's Michael Bloomberg. I think I
Speaker 1: think it's probably not a money though I actually actually
Speaker 1: mad stage. Yeah, I think being a billionaire probably hurts
Speaker 1: you as a presidential candidate. I think I think I
Speaker 1: think it causes it insolarty and just like the things
Speaker 1: that happened you for your a billion I know, obviously
Speaker 1: I think it's I think it's bad. I think you
Speaker 1: want to be like in the hundred million. All right,
Speaker 1: there's a sweet spot, millionaire ritory spot. He's getting re
Speaker 1: elected tonight. The funny thing. The funny thing about Pritzker
Speaker 1: is like there was a moment in online discourse where
Speaker 1: progressives and lefties got like super excited about this guy,
Speaker 1: and there's like a whole thing. And it was really
Speaker 1: because he just like ran on a couple of things
Speaker 1: and then actually did them when he became governor, and
Speaker 1: the bar was so low that they were like, oh
Speaker 1: my god, we love this guy. He's amazing. By the way,
Speaker 1: one more call Jared Polis has been re elected governor
Speaker 1: of Colorado, Governor of colorow other guy position. That is
Speaker 1: an important point because in the red tsunami scenario, they
Speaker 1: actually thought that Polis was possibly so that is an
Speaker 1: important That is an important data point to shout out
Speaker 1: for everyone. Also, Michael Bennett there with thirty eight percent,
Speaker 1: is at three percent. Reporting is up by sixty to forty,
Speaker 1: which is pretty remarkable for what we have there. Wow,
Speaker 1: you know, I mean, I'm pretty stunned by those numbers,
Speaker 1: the Georgia numbers, because we've got two thirds of the
Speaker 1: vote in from Georgia. I so far very surprised that
Speaker 1: Warnock and Kemp a running even I did not see
Speaker 1: that coming. And that again, I mean that seems like
Speaker 1: again polls under estimating the Democrats a little bit in
Speaker 1: the state of Georgia. So all right, we'll keep an
Speaker 1: eye on it. In the meantime, we've got our great
Speaker 1: friend Jameiles Coleman is back to tell us what he
Speaker 1: is making of these numbers. Great to see you again,
Speaker 1: we missed you. So we're just talking about Georgia. Greg Bluesein,
Speaker 1: who's with the Atlanta Journal Constitution, just tweeted out that
Speaker 1: Warnock and Kemp are running even in terms of the
Speaker 1: number of votes they are getting, which is something that
Speaker 1: really surprised us. I mean, how is Georgia looking to
Speaker 1: you at this point? Well, someone who I also think
Speaker 1: had a really really good tweet is Nate Towing at
Speaker 1: the New York Times. He's like, well than Florida, it
Speaker 1: seems like it's a decent night for Democrats and right,
Speaker 1: and like, one county I'm really looking at in Georgia
Speaker 1: is called Clayton County, really south of Atlanta, majority black.
Speaker 1: In the twenty twenty one runoffs, I think Warnot got
Speaker 1: about eighty nine percent of the vote there. He's at
Speaker 1: eighty eight, so, I mean, Warnock is definitely holding up
Speaker 1: very well. So you know, it's it's going to be
Speaker 1: an interesting kind of ticket split that we're seeing in Georgia.
Speaker 1: In favorite Warnock at the tempt which is quite interesting. Yeah,
Speaker 1: lots of tickets splitting going on. What are some of
Speaker 1: the things that you're taking a look at, Miles, give
Speaker 1: us some of your insights some of the big things
Speaker 1: flashing across your radar that you think the audience should know. Sure, So,
Speaker 1: earlier we were talking about how you know, sometimes you
Speaker 1: have to be a little patient when looking for some
Speaker 1: when waiting for some of these results to come come in.
Speaker 1: You know, last week talked Tim Ryan was up in Ohio.
Speaker 1: Looks like jd Vance has taken the lead lead there
Speaker 1: very so lightly. One thing in the House that's sort
Speaker 1: of caught my attention is a lot of Republicans were
Speaker 1: very excited about picking up a seat in Rhode Island.
Speaker 1: They had a good candidate in Alan fond Long. It
Speaker 1: looks like you lost that seat in Rhode Island. So
Speaker 1: overall it looks like, you know, it may not be
Speaker 1: as much of a red wave as you know, maybe
Speaker 1: red rain as pe Or Gabriel said, Yeah, I've got
Speaker 1: another one here, which is a CNN at least has
Speaker 1: projected that Jennifer Wexton is going to hold her seat
Speaker 1: in Virginia's tenth congressional district. Now, of the districts that
Speaker 1: were vulnerable in Virginia, of the Democratic districts that were
Speaker 1: vulnerable in Virginia, I think this is the one where
Speaker 1: Biden had the largest margin. Correct me if I'm wrong.
Speaker 1: But the worry was if we really were in like
Speaker 1: a red tsunami kind of a year, even a Jennifer
Speaker 1: Wexton could end up losing her seat. Sure. That's something
Speaker 1: you saw within the last few weeks is that there
Speaker 1: was all this talk of dij you Boden. This is
Speaker 1: a seat that Joe Biden won by eighteen points. So
Speaker 1: you know, if a seat like that is in play
Speaker 1: or even clips now, that's going to be the sign
Speaker 1: of a really good night Republicans. One other thing in
Speaker 1: Virginia is it looks like Abigail Spanberg, who has a
Speaker 1: more marginal seat to see that Joe Biden won by
Speaker 1: only six or seven, she's only slightly down now, and
Speaker 1: it looks like there are more early votes out that
Speaker 1: are going to be more frank friendly to her. So
Speaker 1: it looks like the Democrats are very going to are
Speaker 1: very likely going to go to for three seats in Virginia.
Speaker 1: The only one they lost was Elaine Laurier, who you
Speaker 1: know that that's just a tough seat. So you know,
Speaker 1: I think if Spanberger lost in District seven that Republicans
Speaker 1: were on track to gain over twenty five seats. That
Speaker 1: doesn't look like it's going to be the case. Wow,
Speaker 1: So what would you what would you put it at now? Actually,
Speaker 1: live in that Bamberger district, so I know it decently well.
Speaker 1: But yeah, would what would you put it at now
Speaker 1: in terms of where you project Republicans may end up
Speaker 1: in terms of the House. Yeah, now it's hard to tell,
Speaker 1: but maybe about fifteen to twenty seats, so you know
Speaker 1: they're going to have a comfortable majority, but it's not
Speaker 1: going to be you know, it's not going to be
Speaker 1: like two hundred and fifty seats or anything that's fascinating. Well,
Speaker 1: I mean that really doesn't stick. I mean, look, I
Speaker 1: mean there's a lot of surprises, like you said, other
Speaker 1: than Florida, it looks like a better night than expected.
Speaker 1: So as we're beginning to move west on the map, miles,
Speaker 1: are you seeing anything yet that we should know about Wisconsin,
Speaker 1: about Texas, or about any of the Midwestern states that
Speaker 1: could be noteworthy? You know, it looks like, you know,
Speaker 1: it's mostly the early boat there. It looks like Governor
Speaker 1: Whitner is ahead. She's someone who if she lost, you know,
Speaker 1: that would be a very big upset for the Republicans.
Speaker 1: But just one to sort of watch. You were talking about,
Speaker 1: you know, right before I came on, I think we
Speaker 1: were talking about Colorado, where Republicans talked a lot about
Speaker 1: unseen Senator Bennett. Yeah, you know, I think he's probably
Speaker 1: going to be in decent shape as well. So, you know,
Speaker 1: again just not a super Republican knight. They may end
Speaker 1: up underperforming expectations. Talk to me about Pennsylvania. I know
Speaker 1: it's still very early. I know we likely I mean,
Speaker 1: I know we have a big blue barrage there right now.
Speaker 1: What do you make of the ticket splitting that is
Speaker 1: going on there with Shapiro outperforming Fetterman. Yes, I'm very
Speaker 1: glad you brought that up. In fact, that's why Pat
Speaker 1: Toomey was re elected in twenty sixteen to the s
Speaker 1: say same seat. What I'm really watching is the collar
Speaker 1: counties around Philadelphia. This isn't an area that Oz has
Speaker 1: to win, he just has to come close. In twenty sixteen,
Speaker 1: the coller counties around Philadelphia went to Hillary Clinton by
Speaker 1: I think ten to fifteen points. Pat Toomey only lost
Speaker 1: him by five or six, so you know, he kept
Speaker 1: those types of counties closer. So that's in Pennsylvania. That's
Speaker 1: an area I'm really watching. That's really interesting. Miles. So
Speaker 1: we've seen a couple of initial calls by Decision desk
Speaker 1: and others for Brian Kemp in Georgia. That's what I
Speaker 1: was just taking a look at. I know it's too
Speaker 1: early necessarily for you to say, but would we then
Speaker 1: look at Camp's vote total visa vi Warnock? Is that
Speaker 1: looking pretty good for him? Is that a takeaway that
Speaker 1: we could say? Yeah, I mean I would say, it
Speaker 1: looks like, you know, I can see there being a
Speaker 1: lot of tickets splits between Kemp and Yayn Wornock. Interestingly,
Speaker 1: in Georgia, one thing that caught my attent attention is
Speaker 1: it looks like someone who's performing even better than Kemp
Speaker 1: is Brad Brafensberger was their second Who is their secrettech area? Say,
Speaker 1: you know he's a one who wouldn't you know who who?
Speaker 1: After the twenty twenty election, Trump was like, you know, hey,
Speaker 1: could you find you know, eleven thousand votes for me?
Speaker 1: And Brad Raffensburger stood up a Trump. So I think
Speaker 1: it's interesting. You may have some Democrats who say, no,
Speaker 1: we don't normally vote Republican, but we like that Camp
Speaker 1: and raffens Burger they did their job and stood up
Speaker 1: to Trump. Yeah, what can you tell us? Miles about
Speaker 1: the history here, because you know, one of the things
Speaker 1: that was really going against Democrats hard is they're the
Speaker 1: party in power, and party in power usually does not
Speaker 1: do well in these midterms, and so you know, they're
Speaker 1: still likely to lose the House. I mean, they're almost
Speaker 1: certain to lose the House. So it's not like this
Speaker 1: is a great year for them. But if they hold
Speaker 1: on to the Senate, which they certainly, you know, are
Speaker 1: in position out of the potential to do at least,
Speaker 1: that would be a sort of a victory in and
Speaker 1: of itself, and a lot less than what Republicans were
Speaker 1: hoping to get out of this day. You know, how
Speaker 1: unusual is that historically? And what can we say about
Speaker 1: what may have contributed to an unusual dynamic this election year? Yeah,
Speaker 1: it's it's I think in something like the forty mid
Speaker 1: terms since the Civil War, the president's mid the president's
Speaker 1: party almost always loses seats. The two exceptions were in
Speaker 1: nineteen ninety eight or two of the most recent exceptions
Speaker 1: were in nineteen ninety eight, where a lot of people
Speaker 1: didn't like how the Republicans were trying to impeach Bill Clinton.
Speaker 1: That kind of that back back far on them. And
Speaker 1: in O two where George W. Bush was really riding
Speaker 1: high after nine to eleven. You know, I think what
Speaker 1: could make this year? You know, maybe something of an
Speaker 1: exception is biding by most measures, isn't a popular president,
Speaker 1: but the Supreme Court isn't popular either, and that's kind
Speaker 1: of controlled by most of Republican appointed justices. One thing
Speaker 1: I was one thing that I think is maybe making
Speaker 1: this election different is we sort of touched on this earlier,
Speaker 1: but Democrats tend to be gaining with college educated white voters.
Speaker 1: They tend to vote at the highest rates. In twenty ten,
Speaker 1: I think the Republicans carry the college white vote excuse me,
Speaker 1: by sixty forty. In twenty eighteen, the Democrats won that
Speaker 1: group by about eight points. That's stuck in twenty twenty.
Speaker 1: So their gains with college educated whites, who are a
Speaker 1: higher propensity voting group, may be helping them in some
Speaker 1: of these key races. That's really interesting. Okay, So what
Speaker 1: are some other things people should take a look at
Speaker 1: as the night progressive? Miles? Is the night very young?
Speaker 1: Is it? Are we learning things? Where where would you
Speaker 1: put us in terms of where we are going to be?
Speaker 1: I would say it's quite young. I mean, I would
Speaker 1: do you know, I mean not to be selfish and
Speaker 1: stick to my home state of Virginia. Uh. Just the
Speaker 1: fact that it looks like Democrats are going to hold
Speaker 1: two of those three competitive Thiefs Center, that to me
Speaker 1: is a pretty good sign that this might not be
Speaker 1: as big a Republican night as something expect. Yep, I
Speaker 1: think that's the That's the only takeaway that we can
Speaker 1: really come away with right now. It was great talking
Speaker 1: with you, Miles once again. Thank you so much for
Speaker 1: joining us, Sarah, We're fantasy. Yeah, super super helpful. Thank you,
Speaker 1: miss Thank you absolutely so. While he was talking reflections takeaways,
Speaker 1: what do you guys? So I want to ask you
Speaker 1: guys a question. Yeah. This this popped into my head
Speaker 1: as I was listening to him talk. Remember when Mitch
Speaker 1: McConnell was getting in that back and forth with Rick Scott. Yes,
Speaker 1: because Rick Scott released an agenda and said we're going
Speaker 1: to run on this and like seventy percent of it
Speaker 1: was like cut some terribly on podcast. So my question
Speaker 1: for you is, Yeah, is Mitch McConnell correct in that
Speaker 1: basically the Republican plan should have been everybody shut the
Speaker 1: fuck up. Yeah no, yes, I think he was. And
Speaker 1: this is where Republicans will be. This is my Republicans.
Speaker 1: We're in trouble when Trump was president. You shouldn't say anything,
Speaker 1: yeah you actually you should just be like things are bad,
Speaker 1: we have this like vague thing to make them better.
Speaker 1: Because if you say, oh, are you word oft inflation?
Speaker 1: Word about energy prices, it's the country's vibe off. We're
Speaker 1: going to cut a security. That's not a good message.
Speaker 1: So that's the that's the that's your inflation. Certainly what
Speaker 1: let's give it to me. I mean if they had
Speaker 1: run Glenn Youngkin type Plaine Vanilla wearing the sweater vest
Speaker 1: in offensive, rich Duke sas banker, wasn't Carlisle your hard
Speaker 1: for Carle So they couldn't even make the case against
Speaker 1: anyway if they just run like Bland, no record have
Speaker 1: in like put him through the primary. And this is
Speaker 1: what they did with young Kin. He didn't have a
Speaker 1: normal like voters go to the polls primary. He was
Speaker 1: basically picked by Republican elites. Didn't have to say much
Speaker 1: about anything controversial. And you know, if Republicans had candidates
Speaker 1: that were like that in all of these Senate races,
Speaker 1: I think we would see a different result. But I
Speaker 1: also think the way Miles put it is very interesting
Speaker 1: because effectively, throughout history, typically party in power does poorly
Speaker 1: in midterm elections. But what he's saying is, effectively, because
Speaker 1: the Supreme Court made this really dramatic decision, people didn't
Speaker 1: have the sense of like Democrats are in charge of everything.
Speaker 1: They saw there was this other power center that was
Speaker 1: actually controlled by Republicans. And so he's saying that's what
Speaker 1: made this historical situation potentially a little different, is because
Speaker 1: it didn't actually feel to voters like there's just one
Speaker 1: party that's controlling the country right now. I think that's
Speaker 1: an interesting way. I think it is really interesting, and
Speaker 1: you know, I just to try and piece little signs together.
Speaker 1: You know, given the fact that it is early to
Speaker 1: not have those two Virginia seats go red is somewhat
Speaker 1: of a bell weather. On top of you have NBC
Speaker 1: News now calling the race straight up for Michael Bennett
Speaker 1: only what right, So it's not even close, and as
Speaker 1: Dave Wigel puts it, this does not seem like a
Speaker 1: midterm electorate that's going to bounce Patty Murray or Michael Bennett.
Speaker 1: And I think that's an important takeaway, right, which is
Speaker 1: that that's the quote red rain, that's the quote that
Speaker 1: it shows you that the red puddle, the red puddle puddle,
Speaker 1: which is that I thought there was, let's say, ten
Speaker 1: percent chance. I think that I said that on the show.
Speaker 1: I thought there was a ten percent chance, and my
Speaker 1: emotional leanings were genuinely putting me there, but I was
Speaker 1: trying to be objective about it. I was like, you know,
Speaker 1: I think there's a chance Patty Murray could could lose, right,
Speaker 1: And I was telling you before I'd heard rumors this
Speaker 1: morning she's worried about it. They were saying, look, guys,
Speaker 1: it's going to take a long time. I don't think
Speaker 1: she says in danger given the Michael Bennett vote, given
Speaker 1: the electorate that we've seen in Virginia. And that is
Speaker 1: just going to be a really interesting, multifaceted takeaway for everybody,
Speaker 1: because Crystal one could make the case. And I think
Speaker 1: you're right, which is that if the Dems do hang
Speaker 1: on and they do better, especially if if Warnock wins,
Speaker 1: I mean, I think that's going to be a tremendous
Speaker 1: upset for them. It really will be one of those
Speaker 1: where it would be a vindication for the abortion first messaging,
Speaker 1: and I think that will be the absolute takeaway for
Speaker 1: the MSNBC kind of left very convenient, you know, for
Speaker 1: the centers of power. That's going to be a fascinating
Speaker 1: thing though, because in some ways it did work some
Speaker 1: of what you talked about, Kyle. Look, whether it's true
Speaker 1: or not, they're not going to talk about it, so
Speaker 1: I agree. So I agree, whether it is true on
Speaker 1: that front or not, I don't think it will necessarily.
Speaker 1: I also think it will be a vindication of the
Speaker 1: Dems talking as much as they are about democracy again,
Speaker 1: whether or not it is even true at the batt level.
Speaker 1: So trying to think now about the meta takeaways from
Speaker 1: what we generally see things are going on tonight, we
Speaker 1: don't yet know. If it's very early obviously Arizona, I
Speaker 1: still expect to be, you know, a really crazy one
Speaker 1: that we're gonna have to follow for days on end.
Speaker 1: Same thing in Pennsylvania, et cetera. Let's put that aside.
Speaker 1: It is interesting about what the meta debates will be
Speaker 1: because from what I can see right now on the right,
Speaker 1: there's only one thing coming out Florida is a red state.
Speaker 1: It's like, Okay, well that's great. They're putting up the part,
Speaker 1: but they're not but they're not celebrating really everything else.
Speaker 1: So that's kind of interesting to me. Okay, I want
Speaker 1: to know if you guys think this is a crazy thought,
Speaker 1: But like, in a way, I kind of think this
Speaker 1: might be a rebuke of Trump, because Trump is still
Speaker 1: the shadow, like, you know, leader of the Republican Party,
Speaker 1: and every time he pops up in the news, it's
Speaker 1: for some psychotic thing that he said or did. And
Speaker 1: I do think that there at some point there was
Speaker 1: a breaking point among the American public. Obviously, he didn't
Speaker 1: get reelected in twenty twenty, and I feel like he's
Speaker 1: only steadily in the eyes of the normy, the moderate,
Speaker 1: the independent, the average Joe and Jay, and he's gone
Speaker 1: down and down and down in their estimation. And to
Speaker 1: the extent that this party is still effectively tied to him,
Speaker 1: whether or not they even like want to be optically
Speaker 1: to the extent that they are, is that sort of like,
Speaker 1: you know, an anchor around their neck that they can't shake.
Speaker 1: I don't think it's the weird thing is I don't
Speaker 1: think it's a repudiation of Trump, it's a repudiation of
Speaker 1: the Republican Party because things trend this way things, and
Speaker 1: repudiation is like a little overstating impart the realitiest people
Speaker 1: don't like, which is in the polls where the country's
Speaker 1: going right now. But they don't trust Republicans to take
Speaker 1: the to take the will either, right, That's what I think.
Speaker 1: I think, that's that was. It has nothing that is
Speaker 1: Trump and it also isn't Trump. Well, let me let
Speaker 1: me temper our the positive vibes for Democrats with some
Speaker 1: new news out of Georgia, which is that Herschel Walker
Speaker 1: has now taken the lead. There you go, with sixty
Speaker 1: nine percent of votes in He's at forty nine point
Speaker 1: six percent under the just under that fifty percentage point mark.
Speaker 1: Rafael Warnick got forty eight point six percent, So they
Speaker 1: must have gotten a big jump dump of some you know,
Speaker 1: Republican area that's positive for them, or day of voting
Speaker 1: or whatever. And now the New York Times with their
Speaker 1: like needle situation, they actually have Walker as a sixty
Speaker 1: one percent chance of winning in Georgia, so they have
Speaker 1: Walker favored at this point. Now that doesn't say anything
Speaker 1: about whether it's going to go to the runoff whatever whatever.
Speaker 1: That's all And you know, sixty one percent is not
Speaker 1: saying he's it's a done deal. But that picture has
Speaker 1: just shifted significantly towards Republicans. They have right now Fetterman
Speaker 1: with a fifty three percent chance of winning in Pennsylvania Senate.
Speaker 1: So that one is still just like with the numbers
Speaker 1: we have in nobody has any idea how is it
Speaker 1: counted in Georgia, Like, so, where's the next dump coming from?
Speaker 1: It's it's a mixer, no I match. It also depends
Speaker 1: on individual counties because sometimes individual counties won't be reporting
Speaker 1: at a big I remember in twenty twenty we went
Speaker 1: through this with Fulton County and you know a bunch
Speaker 1: of these other places. So if it is really tied,
Speaker 1: it could still take a while. But you know, noteworthy
Speaker 1: herschel Walker is pulling ahead though he's got you know,
Speaker 1: fifty percent now. Yeah, one, I'm trying to remember if
Speaker 1: it was mail in election day more mail in in Georgia. Well,
Speaker 1: if there's mailing, there's a early vote and there's election day,
Speaker 1: right right, So in terms of happen in New Hampshire though,
Speaker 1: I mean, she looks pretty solid to hold on to
Speaker 1: that seat. They have her with a seventy six percent
Speaker 1: chance of winning based on what is in so far.
Speaker 1: So you know, the picture is still muddled. I think
Speaker 1: one thing we can say very clearly is the red
Speaker 1: tsunami did not material less. Now you could still end
Speaker 1: up with Republicans winning Georgia, you could still end up
Speaker 1: with Republicans winning Nevada. I still end up with them
Speaker 1: winning Pennsylvania. You still end up with them winning Arizona,
Speaker 1: and they would still look at that as that was
Speaker 1: a really good night for us. It is a good yeah,
Speaker 1: there's no question. So how as senators would that get
Speaker 1: them to that's fifty four? Fifty four is like three
Speaker 1: fifty four is the top end of what I write,
Speaker 1: So fifty three to fifty five. So if they won,
Speaker 1: and this is for David Shor's analysis on here. This
Speaker 1: is for David shores analysis, which is that if they
Speaker 1: get anywhere between fifty three and fifty five, they have
Speaker 1: a probability actually of getting a filibuster proof majority twenty
Speaker 1: twenty four in the event that Trump would win. So
Speaker 1: that's kind of interesting. However, if we do come out
Speaker 1: at fifty one or even at fifty, then that's a
Speaker 1: totally different story as to what exactly we can expect
Speaker 1: and whatnot. So I don't know. It's it's really really
Speaker 1: interesting to look at all this. Tim Alberta tweeting this,
Speaker 1: he's an analyst over at the Atlantic quote, this is
Speaker 1: not the red tsunami. In fact, it could be could
Speaker 1: be the best midterm cycle for an incumbent president since
Speaker 1: the Rally round the Flag election of two thousand and two,
Speaker 1: which if that's true, that would just be marpha. That
Speaker 1: would bust every narrative. That would bust literally every narrative.
Speaker 1: Moderate like that wouldn't take much, though, because I think
Speaker 1: the like all Biden would have to do it was
Speaker 1: like lose what twenty seats in the House or something
Speaker 1: or thirty seats and he would still be the best.
Speaker 1: I think you're right, Yeah, you're right. Which is that?
Speaker 1: And as many people are pointing out their replies, they're like, yeah,
Speaker 1: that would help though, because they've been waives every single
Speaker 1: time from two thousand to two thousand or two thousand
Speaker 1: and six to consider that for everything. So anyway, I
Speaker 1: think it is really interesting to consider it all within
Speaker 1: that framework. Chris, So, I have one more for you.
Speaker 1: Could I just throw this out here ahead or yeah?
Speaker 1: So Hocal in New York. Now, this Hocal versus Zelden
Speaker 1: governor race in New York is a real race. There's
Speaker 1: been a lot of talk about that recently. Hogle takes
Speaker 1: seventy five percent of the early vote in New York City.
Speaker 1: That doesn't tell us much New York City is like,
Speaker 1: I'm surprised it's not ninety two percent for HOCl. But
Speaker 1: I actually thought that said seventy five percent of early
Speaker 1: vote in New York, which is why I presented it
Speaker 1: to you, and then I read it, I said, oh,
Speaker 1: okay in the city. Well, I'm wasting everybody's time, Marshall, Kyle.
Speaker 1: We have Emily and Ryan on standby. Do you guys
Speaker 1: have final thoughts before we'll have a five minute period.
Speaker 1: We're just going to play some campaign ads that are
Speaker 1: closing for all of you while we get them all
Speaker 1: in here. And also, I need another Liquid death to
Speaker 1: part to murder my thirst. I'm sorry, by the way, Yeah,
Speaker 1: by the way, they don't. They gave us some free
Speaker 1: Liquid death and I genuinely enjoy it. So thank you
Speaker 1: to final thoughts. One shout out to the viewer who
Speaker 1: called out the surface. We are dozens of us, but
Speaker 1: we are strong and we love our Microsoft surfaces too.
Speaker 1: Though serious note, I think our early call that this
Speaker 1: wasn't a red wave was kind of vindicated. But no
Speaker 1: matter what happens tonight, I think it was clear when
Speaker 1: we started this recording, I just didn't feel like you're
Speaker 1: going to have like this like transformation, like red wave
Speaker 1: election that many people on Twitter especially, we've been tweeting around. Yeah.
Speaker 1: So that's that's just gonna takeaway. It's just not going
Speaker 1: to be We are not going to talk with this
Speaker 1: election the way we talk about twenty ten, nineteen ninety. Definitely,
Speaker 1: that is a really important not yet Barack Obama got Yeah.
Speaker 1: So the other day on my show, I made a
Speaker 1: similar argument that I want to just be wishy washing
Speaker 1: an agnostic out and I said, I don't what's gonna happen.
Speaker 1: Let wait to see, and in part that's what we're
Speaker 1: doing here. But also at the same time, I said,
Speaker 1: if you had a gun to my head, I'd say
Speaker 1: fifty one or fifty two in the Senate for Republicans
Speaker 1: and they'll pick up maybe twenty twenty five seats in
Speaker 1: the House, which puts it significantly below the twenty ten
Speaker 1: red wave. So and as of right now, it looks
Speaker 1: like that's what's panning out. But you know, it ain't
Speaker 1: over until it's over. And it's very possible that that
Speaker 1: it looks that prediction looks good now, but it's very
Speaker 1: possible that it doesn't materialize. And again, I think the
Speaker 1: reason why this was such a difficult election to get
Speaker 1: to get our finger on the pulls of is because
Speaker 1: there's just so many complicating factors. The inflation thing, the
Speaker 1: crime thing. I mean, only nineteen percent of the country
Speaker 1: thinks for going on the right track. I mean, this
Speaker 1: is something that it should have been a schill lacking
Speaker 1: for the Democrats. But when you add in the fifty
Speaker 1: two percent of the Republicans running deny the election, and
Speaker 1: you add in Trump, still I think an anchor around
Speaker 1: their neck. You add in Biden, student loan dead reduction
Speaker 1: and Roby Wad being overturned, it's like, I don't fucking
Speaker 1: know what's gonna happen. We're all just waiting. And I
Speaker 1: say this every time. This is why I love election night.
Speaker 1: I like to be humble, but beyond that, like I
Speaker 1: like to see what people think. Yeah, it always surprises
Speaker 1: us no matter what. And I think that has been
Speaker 1: vindicated tonight. Yep. Indeed. All right, guys, Okay, guys, thank
Speaker 1: you both so much. You both did a fantastic, fantastic job.
Speaker 1: All Right, everybody, give us five minutes. We're going to
Speaker 1: play some mads closing pitches from all the candidates for
Speaker 1: all of you, and we'll be right back here at
Speaker 1: the desk with Emily and Ryan. Let's get to a
Speaker 1: control room. Let's roll. It's crazy. Crystal was just saying
Speaker 1: she wants Tim Ryan to run for president. Right, that's
Speaker 1: right again, you'll actually really been the whole nation. That's
Speaker 1: a great triviat question. Did Tim Ryan run for president?
Speaker 1: You know, it's funny. I was doing a monologue about
Speaker 1: like Biden twenty twenty four, and I was remembering of
Speaker 1: the people that ran, and I was like, wow, we
Speaker 1: just never heard from them. Again. It trivia thing like
Speaker 1: did this like of twenty different people, did they run
Speaker 1: for president? I remember John de Lady, Oh, I do
Speaker 1: remember that. Unfortunately, Crystal, if I recall, we were forced
Speaker 1: to interview him like twelve times over at rising and
Speaker 1: I like the thirteenth time, I was like, they were good.
Speaker 1: They were good. I cannot sit with this man. Okay,
Speaker 1: all of that aside. Emily Ryan, you guys have been
Speaker 1: watching the results, You've been taking it in. What you
Speaker 1: what do you guys top takeaways? Emily, what do you
Speaker 1: think so far? So I agree with much of what
Speaker 1: has been said that what I think right now is
Speaker 1: happening is we're teetering between whether this is a good
Speaker 1: night for Republicans or a great night for Republicans. And
Speaker 1: I agree with what Kyle and Marshall were saying as
Speaker 1: they were giving their final thoughts, which is that it's
Speaker 1: looking more like this is just a good night for Republicans,
Speaker 1: Like this is politics as usual when you have an
Speaker 1: unpopular president and a bad economy. This is just going
Speaker 1: to be a sort of an easy win for Republicans
Speaker 1: and they're going to stop there. I do think there
Speaker 1: are some interesting indications. I think people should be watching
Speaker 1: Texas really closely. The real Grand Valley slager. You know
Speaker 1: all about it. But one of the things that stands
Speaker 1: out to me is where Maria Alvirs Salazar one reelection
Speaker 1: in Florida's twenty seventh district, which was redrawn a bit,
Speaker 1: but redrawn a bit still if you look at daily
Speaker 1: coosis metrics, withdrawn a bit to the point where it
Speaker 1: was still a razor thin margin for Donald Trump in
Speaker 1: a twenty twenty election. She that was an absolute blowout.
Speaker 1: And so what we're talking about there is the Hispanic vote.
Speaker 1: We're talking about whether Republicans made inroads, and that's particularly
Speaker 1: with the Cuban vote. Of course, in Miami, Marie al
Speaker 1: Virus Salazar is a long time Telemundo person. But if
Speaker 1: we're looking at that race, I then want to see
Speaker 1: what happens. I want to see what Texas thirty four
Speaker 1: looks like with Myra Flores's reelection. I want to see
Speaker 1: if and that's a redrawn district too. So there's where
Speaker 1: I'm looking at, particularly because I think if those indications
Speaker 1: come in, we might see different things in the Oregon
Speaker 1: governor's race. We might see different things in Wisconsin. So
Speaker 1: I still don't think we know whether it's a good
Speaker 1: night or a great night for Republicans, although I do
Speaker 1: think where things stand now just good. Yeah, I think
Speaker 1: you're I think you're right. What do you think Brian,
Speaker 1: so well, it's a good night so far for weed
Speaker 1: and psychedelics. Okay, so in other words, it's a great
Speaker 1: night for Ryan Grew. First, there are two. There are
Speaker 1: two key abortion referendums that I mean, there are several.
Speaker 1: There's Vermont, which guess what it's going to win, California
Speaker 1: guess what that one's going to win. But the ones
Speaker 1: people were looking at, we're Michigan and Kentucky, and so
Speaker 1: far voters in both of those states are overwhelmingly approving
Speaker 1: abortion rights. It could it could still swing, but I
Speaker 1: think Kentucky following Kansas has to make people think differently
Speaker 1: about where this country is when it comes to abortion rights.
Speaker 1: I think not only those ballot initiatives, but also these
Speaker 1: results have to make people think differently about abortion rights
Speaker 1: because I mean, I was among the people who were
Speaker 1: out there like screaming and beating my childs Like you
Speaker 1: have to talk about the freaking economy, Like where is
Speaker 1: your economic message? You can't run every ad on abortion.
Speaker 1: Maybe you can run every ad on abortion, because I mean,
Speaker 1: right now, yeah, we don't know. There are a lot
Speaker 1: of seats down et cetera, et cetera. It's definitely not
Speaker 1: the red tsunami. I mean, Democrats won two out of
Speaker 1: the three swing districts in Virginia. There was a lot
Speaker 1: of Republican opium around New Hampshire. That bulldeck was going
Speaker 1: to pull that one out back to win one of
Speaker 1: those houses is out. Yeah, they were going to win
Speaker 1: one of the houseas they thought they were going to
Speaker 1: win a house seat in Rhode Island. I mean, so
Speaker 1: the maximalist red tsunami did not happen. Now, do Republicans
Speaker 1: manage to cobble together a bear majority in the Senate,
Speaker 1: that's possible. They're certainly going to get control of the House,
Speaker 1: there's no doubt about that. But you know, Emily, you
Speaker 1: said like, oh, this is just what happens when the
Speaker 1: economy's bad. In the present's approval rating is in the
Speaker 1: low forties. No, what happens normally when you have that
Speaker 1: set of affairs is is the red student, the shellacking,
Speaker 1: the what you normally get in you know, seventy percent
Speaker 1: wrong track and everybody like, oh my god, the economy's
Speaker 1: terrible and gas prices are high and inflation is out
Speaker 1: of control, and I really don't like this president. I
Speaker 1: really don't want him to run for president again, you
Speaker 1: get a shellacking. So to me, what's really striking is
Speaker 1: that that hasn't materialized. And I think it's because of
Speaker 1: two things. I think it is, like, obviously, abortion, you know,
Speaker 1: is important here, and I think abortion did contribute to
Speaker 1: some of the problems Republicans had in terms of the
Speaker 1: candidates that they chose and the sense that not just
Speaker 1: on abortion, but on a whole raft of issue, these
Speaker 1: people are freaking crazy and they're out to lunch. And
Speaker 1: I might not be that abby with the Democrats in charge,
Speaker 1: but I don't think I can hand off the ball
Speaker 1: to these people. Do you think. I think it's interesting
Speaker 1: because so Ryan and I were just on Megan Kelly
Speaker 1: and Ryan was talking about you you mean such an
Speaker 1: interesting point, which is that the youth vote in twenty
Speaker 1: eighteen was really crucial for Democrats, and we actually I
Speaker 1: still don't know if the youth vote in twenty twenty
Speaker 1: two will be crucial to Democrats, particularly because of this
Speaker 1: issue of abortion and the reason and I think this
Speaker 1: gets lost in sort of the belt white chatter, especially
Speaker 1: the last couple of weeks that Democrats ran hard on abortion.
Speaker 1: It's not just because they're completely out of touch, which
Speaker 1: as well, though they are, they are completely out of touch.
Speaker 1: It's not just that, it's also though, because of turnout.
Speaker 1: Midterm elections are about turnout. And if you think you
Speaker 1: can get your base to turn out for democracy and abortion,
Speaker 1: because those are the people you do not want sitting
Speaker 1: on the couch come election night, then you are going
Speaker 1: to run a bunch of ads on democracy and abortion.
Speaker 1: Now did they overdo it? I think very clearly the
Speaker 1: answer to that is yes, they didn't have a good
Speaker 1: economic message. I think though that's why they were running
Speaker 1: on those things. And the other point that I'll make is,
Speaker 1: like I guess I was talking about the context of
Speaker 1: the realignment. So this bigger conversation about whether it's a
Speaker 1: great night for Republicans make a generation defined it right right, right,
Speaker 1: Like if this is a real turning point pivot for
Speaker 1: Republicans because you see, for instance, in roads with black
Speaker 1: and Hispanic voters, like I think we should be looking
Speaker 1: really closely at Milwaukee and Philadelphia. It's not like the
Speaker 1: black vote in Milwaukee and Philadelphia is going to go
Speaker 1: to Republicans, but are the margins slimmer, then they should
Speaker 1: be for a midterm election for Democrats. That's those are
Speaker 1: the sort of things that I think will will make
Speaker 1: it a quote great night for Republicans if that's what
Speaker 1: they're looking at. But no, I think that's a good point, Christal.
Speaker 1: I've got a piece of data here to add into
Speaker 1: the conversation. This is from Nate con of the New
Speaker 1: York Times. He says, it's still early, obviously, but Fetterman
Speaker 1: is running ahead of Biden the Pennsylvania counties that seem
Speaker 1: like they may be complete that. I mean, if that
Speaker 1: is running out of Biden, then he's gonna win. And now,
Speaker 1: on the other hand, maybe Oz dramatically outperforms Trump in
Speaker 1: the red counties, and that sort of polarization is certainly
Speaker 1: something that we have seen. But you know, the other
Speaker 1: thing that Conas said is it looks like Democrats are
Speaker 1: running about a point ahead of our expectations outside of Florida.
Speaker 1: So put Florida aside. I mean, I guess the question
Speaker 1: for Republicans is, you know, maybe as you get further
Speaker 1: out west, maybe there is a different dynamic. Maybe in
Speaker 1: states where you have a more significant Latino population, maybe
Speaker 1: you have more of that realignment, more of those shifts
Speaker 1: and so even though they you know, it looks like
Speaker 1: Georgia probably going to a runoff, Pennsylvania, who knows. At
Speaker 1: this point, New Hampshire certainly totally off the table. Do
Speaker 1: they pick up in Arizona, do they pick up a Nevada?
Speaker 1: What do those pieces look like? Yeah? And I think
Speaker 1: this also goes to the messaging and reality, Like we
Speaker 1: focus so much on the way that candidates are messaging
Speaker 1: what Democrats are talking about, but that's only a small
Speaker 1: amount of the input that voters have. You know, very true,
Speaker 1: voters are filling up their gas tank. Voters are also
Speaker 1: talking to people all the time about abortion rights, but
Speaker 1: things that are in the new education about education, about
Speaker 1: the school, the school's question. We'll see how some of
Speaker 1: that shakes out, but it you know, it comes down
Speaker 1: to sailings. Like when people say that the most important
Speaker 1: issue to them is inflation, does that mean that that's
Speaker 1: what they're hearing in the news. But if somebody is
Speaker 1: saying the most important issue to me is abortion and
Speaker 1: it's overwhelmingly for Democrats, that mean these are people who
Speaker 1: are coming out and voting who otherwise wouldn't have voted.
Speaker 1: And it doesn't actually matter whether Democrats had message on it,
Speaker 1: Like for people in Pennsylvania the last month or so,
Speaker 1: I don't understand how a candidate could break through on anything.
Speaker 1: Like every time you turn on the TV, it's eight
Speaker 1: ads and then it's back to the show you're watching,
Speaker 1: and then the Phillies lose, the Phillies lose, altho all
Speaker 1: the Eagles are still undefeated, and you're like, you, what
Speaker 1: am I even taking from this? And Yeah, well I
Speaker 1: was gonna say. Crystal's point about the Nate Cone data
Speaker 1: is I think really really important because a lot of
Speaker 1: what we pulled here with our elements, it's looking at
Speaker 1: the predictions from five point thirty eight and RCP and Republicans.
Speaker 1: Just as at last couple of days, I can tell
Speaker 1: you talking to conservative sources, Sager, you may have had
Speaker 1: a similar experience. They were actually expecting that the polls
Speaker 1: were still under I was estimated Republicans. So like when
Speaker 1: you're looking at Oregon, when you're looking at New York.
Speaker 1: So if the polls are underestimating Lee Zelden, is it
Speaker 1: possible that Zelden wins by two to three percent? That's
Speaker 1: what Republicans were going in tonight to tonight thinking and
Speaker 1: a lot of people on the right were building into
Speaker 1: these numbers, perhaps a couple two three extra points for
Speaker 1: Republicans in places like deep blue places like New York
Speaker 1: and Oregon. And if that doesn't pan out, if Democrats
Speaker 1: actually overperform the polls, that is a very big story.
Speaker 1: I think you're right, yes, well, and we know in
Speaker 1: one state they did, and that's New Hampshire. New Hampshire
Speaker 1: is the state that where we probably have the clearest
Speaker 1: picture right now because they have limited early vote, because
Speaker 1: most of the vote it is in because Maggie Hassen
Speaker 1: is like consistently outperforming Biden in county after county after county.
Speaker 1: Biden won New Hampshire by seven points. Right, the polls
Speaker 1: did not have Maggie Hassen up by anywhere near seven points.
Speaker 1: Even the most optimistic polls for her down the stretch
Speaker 1: hot are up by like two. So at least when
Speaker 1: you have a significantly college educated electorate, which is what
Speaker 1: you have disproportionately in the state of New Hampshire, you
Speaker 1: had a dynamic of them actually underestimating Democratic support. We
Speaker 1: can show that number twelve guys, if you can please
Speaker 1: that's our New Hampshire element, just to give everybody some insight.
Speaker 1: This is gonna be a fun game in the future,
Speaker 1: just looking at the exact call so you can see there,
Speaker 1: which is that now the final RCP average had Maggie
Speaker 1: Hassen only up by one point, and while the five
Speaker 1: thirty eight average did have her in seventy two in
Speaker 1: a twenty eight percent, they also still pointed to a
Speaker 1: much narrower race. And that doesn't yet seem so like
Speaker 1: right now the data that we have is forty one
Speaker 1: percent of the vote is in in New Hampshire, fifty
Speaker 1: six percent Maggie Hassen, forty two percent Bolda. Now, some
Speaker 1: of that could come back, you know for Bolda as
Speaker 1: some of the later I think more rural areas are
Speaker 1: the ones where he's expected to have support. But the
Speaker 1: blowout scenario, which is what I'll be honest, I really
Speaker 1: thought that it was a very distinct possibility that Michael
Speaker 1: Ben not Michael Bennett, losing necessarily. But I didn't think
Speaker 1: they would just call it for him, you know, like
Speaker 1: that Patty Murray like sweating it right exactly. I thought
Speaker 1: she was going on. I thought she would believe that
Speaker 1: was closed. Yeah, I thought she would win, but you
Speaker 1: win by to remember who's the new Jersey governor. What
Speaker 1: was the guy's name, Phil Murphy? Yeah, and he won
Speaker 1: by three everyone point. I thinks he's going to run
Speaker 1: for Presidentemross elimination. Yeah, I mean, I I do think
Speaker 1: like the reason that this election midterm, I think we
Speaker 1: can already say it is definitely not a schlacking. It's
Speaker 1: definitely different than what normally happens when you have a
Speaker 1: party in power. And I really attribute that to the
Speaker 1: fact that Democrats were just as energized as Republicans normally.
Speaker 1: The reason you have the show lacking is because the
Speaker 1: party in powers voters are sort of dispirited, hasn't really
Speaker 1: been everything that they expected. They're kind of disappointed. They
Speaker 1: don't really love these people anymore, and they're like, fuck it,
Speaker 1: I'm just staying home this time. And I do think
Speaker 1: that this is, you know, this is a Trump effect.
Speaker 1: There is a sense of existential dread and doom and
Speaker 1: energy and whatever going on with the Democratic base. The
Speaker 1: abortion ruling certainly fuels that, and so that's causing them
Speaker 1: to turn up out at the polls in the same
Speaker 1: margins of you know, enthusiasm as Republicans, And I do
Speaker 1: think that that's why this election looks different than midterms
Speaker 1: when you have the party in power, and you have
Speaker 1: a bad economy, and you have inflation, and you have
Speaker 1: a low presidential approverating all those things, and yet Democrats
Speaker 1: might still hold on to the Senate. Like that is
Speaker 1: really that's really different. I think that that's a big
Speaker 1: part of it. But also the and and also the
Speaker 1: changing Democratic coalition changes that. So in the eighties and nineties, sixties,
Speaker 1: seventy eighty ninety, when Democrats are still like, if you're
Speaker 1: a working class voter, you're a Democrat first, and if
Speaker 1: you're not, then you have questions to ans for like, yeah,
Speaker 1: why are you voting for these Nelson Rockefet's Republicans, And
Speaker 1: those types of voters show up in presidential years and
Speaker 1: then drop off in midterms. Now they have a much
Speaker 1: more educated electorate that is showing up in primaries. They're
Speaker 1: voting for city council, they're voting for school board, and
Speaker 1: they're definitely showing up for midterms. So what's interesting though,
Speaker 1: and this is the one sort of like Devil's Advocate
Speaker 1: argument that I'll continue to make, is that those Florida
Speaker 1: numbers are really interesting to me because that's a blowout
Speaker 1: for Maria Alviro Salazard to win that district, which was
Speaker 1: Dona Shalala's district. It was shifted a little bit to
Speaker 1: favorite Republicans. I think it went from plus four Dems
Speaker 1: to plus one Dems according to a five point thirty eight,
Speaker 1: but for a double digit win for Republican there, I
Speaker 1: think that's really interesting. And I just don't think we
Speaker 1: know what's going to happen in Texas yet. And so
Speaker 1: just in terms of that sort of broader realignment question,
Speaker 1: whether there is more evidence of a pivot, I do
Speaker 1: think it's we still the jury is kind of out
Speaker 1: on that question. Well, we may still, I mean, we
Speaker 1: may still have a real full on realignment, but also
Speaker 1: have Democrats do better than expect because of the point
Speaker 1: Ryan is making of, like, you know, Democrats used to
Speaker 1: really be envious of the fact that like all these
Speaker 1: like affluent white Republicans would show up every brick in
Speaker 1: election no matter what. Now those people are Democrats. Yeah,
Speaker 1: so that does kind of help you out a midterm
Speaker 1: election ultimately, doesn't it. I also wonder let's put the
Speaker 1: House aside and let's look at the Senate. I mean,
Speaker 1: I'm looking at the New York Times probability right now
Speaker 1: has a fifty three percent chance that herschel Walker does win.
Speaker 1: Their quote unquote Needle has a tassa has it currently
Speaker 1: leaning towards fifty one seats for the Republicans. So look,
Speaker 1: I think it's still within the realm of possibility. As
Speaker 1: you said, Crystal Fetterman may be out running Biden, but
Speaker 1: doctor oz is very likely to outrun Trump in the
Speaker 1: mainline suburbs of Philadelphia, so that could equal out. We
Speaker 1: could still have a scenario where doctor oz ekes out
Speaker 1: one point one percent of victory. So on an absolute
Speaker 1: numbers basis, that's a bad Canada, right, And we could
Speaker 1: still end up in an absolute numbers basis with like
Speaker 1: fifty three Republican seats, right like lake Master. We you
Speaker 1: know Arizona. I don't have a scrap of data in
Speaker 1: front of me yet out of Arizona, no idea. What's
Speaker 1: going to happen Nevada. I mean, we still got an
Speaker 1: hour until or forty five minutes right now until Nevada
Speaker 1: polls go ahead and close. So I think you know,
Speaker 1: when Chrystal and I wake up tomorrow morning and we
Speaker 1: have to do the show seven am. Whenever we're reporting
Speaker 1: for everybody, it's gonna be fun. Oh well, so badly. Well, Well,
Speaker 1: when we're all up here at seven, I will at
Speaker 1: least at least standard at least Standard time is back,
Speaker 1: and at least the sun will be up at that time.
Speaker 1: It could be a totally different night. We could be
Speaker 1: talk about your still about fifty three Republicans, and for Republicans,
Speaker 1: for Republicans who are disappointed that they are not yet
Speaker 1: looking at a bigger night, one thing they can remember
Speaker 1: is that if you look at two thousand and eight,
Speaker 1: when Obama came in, he had a bunch of coattails.
Speaker 1: He swept in something like thirteen to fifteen House Democrats.
Speaker 1: Remember with him, Biden had reverse coattails. Biden lost what
Speaker 1: ten to fifteen I think about fourteen, right, thank you,
Speaker 1: And so he baked in a bunch of losses. Biden
Speaker 1: has been so good at losing that there's less losing
Speaker 1: for him to do this time around. So if you
Speaker 1: imagine him losing all of those seats right those fifteen
Speaker 1: or so that he lost already, and then you add
Speaker 1: them to the ones he's losing tonight, then you've got
Speaker 1: a really big number, which if you're Obama, you kind
Speaker 1: of He wouldn't say that's publicly, but privately, I'm sure
Speaker 1: he's thinking, Okay, yeah, the only reason your wipeout isn't
Speaker 1: worse is that you already got half wiped out when
Speaker 1: you swept your way in. That's not a bad I've
Speaker 1: got some Arizona numbers. Ah, some data, some data from Arizona,
Speaker 1: and this is forty percent. Now caveats, we don't know
Speaker 1: early vote they have, where they're from, all that stuff. Okay,
Speaker 1: Mark Kelly is from Venezuela. No no, no, no, bam boo,
Speaker 1: balance straight into the mules. The mules brought him in.
Speaker 1: I'm typing the mill right now. Mark Kelly fifty tixo
Speaker 1: point four percent and Blake Masters at forty one point
Speaker 1: three percent. And the New York Times has this now
Speaker 1: based on what's in as lean Democrats, so they are
Speaker 1: seeing this based on what's I mean, forty percent is
Speaker 1: not nothing. Forty percent You can look at it and
Speaker 1: start to get a gauge of where it's going to go.
Speaker 1: They are feeling like Democrats are doing well there, so far.
Speaker 1: What about Maricopa County, So I think that's obviously the one. Okay,
Speaker 1: So we've got fifty three percent of the vote in
Speaker 1: from Maricopa County. Mark Kelly is leading there at fifty
Speaker 1: nine percent. If it does get close. A lot of
Speaker 1: the stuff that we talked about that is going very
Speaker 1: viral amongst MAGA folks about the closure about the oh
Speaker 1: and I should update everybody that lawsuit that I talked
Speaker 1: about that the Republicans filed that was denied by a judge,
Speaker 1: so the extra vote time they were asking for was
Speaker 1: not granted. So of course we can also see a
Speaker 1: potential fight in the future there. So it's interesting, I
Speaker 1: mean to have forty one percent of the vote in
Speaker 1: in terms of where else I was also looking, you know,
Speaker 1: we almost overlooked this one, but you got twenty two
Speaker 1: percent of the vote in and Gretschen Whitmer actually looks
Speaker 1: to be doing quite well. That's another that's another huge
Speaker 1: and the huge abortion referendum is it's currently up fourteen points.
Speaker 1: So I think the abortion referendum has hoattails for wit
Speaker 1: Here's here's a significant one. This is per Decision Desk
Speaker 1: Josh Shapiro wins Pennsylvania. Yeah, that's a big one. And
Speaker 1: here's what is the big one they promises when that results,
Speaker 1: and then they're like, oh, Joshua, well, well we should
Speaker 1: get the caveat that is decision desk, right, it's there.
Speaker 1: I've actually said this, Arkle. They are very premature, in
Speaker 1: my opinion, in some of their calls. So we'll see.
Speaker 1: But if even though you know it is still a
Speaker 1: major organization, they're a bit trigger. Happened for them to
Speaker 1: say that that is significant early on in the process
Speaker 1: for Shapiro to be called. And that is significant not
Speaker 1: just because you know, we're Pennsylvania's trending and is it
Speaker 1: the red okay wave of the red puddle or the
Speaker 1: red whatever, but also because Mastriano was genuine like election
Speaker 1: psycho and he was in Pennsylvania. This something we covered
Speaker 1: a lot on breaking points. You as governor appoint the
Speaker 1: secretary of state and this is a dude who wasn't
Speaker 1: isn't just like echoing stop the steel stuff. He was
Speaker 1: there on January sixth. He was part of the boss
Speaker 1: or something. He came, he came the capital. He came.
Speaker 1: He did not to the capital. He came up in
Speaker 1: the like January sixth Committee testimony thing, because he was
Speaker 1: so integral a trump'shule, fake elector plot in the state,
Speaker 1: Like this guy was in it in like true believer
Speaker 1: all the way in. And so you know, this is
Speaker 1: a real This is a real rebuke of the Trump
Speaker 1: stopped the steal candidates. I think Shapiro also deserves credit. Actually,
Speaker 1: David Strode, our partners over at the lever Sorrotas, known
Speaker 1: Shapiro for a while and he went and went to
Speaker 1: school together. Yeah, right, and he went and actually followed
Speaker 1: Shapiro on the campaign trail, and he has done He
Speaker 1: has established a real statewide profile for himself to going
Speaker 1: after big pharma, actually taking on the fracking companies, taking
Speaker 1: on the Catholic Church. And so I don't think it's
Speaker 1: just a rebuke of Masteriano. I think it also is
Speaker 1: an affirmative, you know, vote in favor of Joshapiro here,
Speaker 1: who seems to have impressed Pennsylvania voters. I think that's
Speaker 1: complete like that. For that to come in this early
Speaker 1: is a really big deal, and to look like it
Speaker 1: does this early is a really big deal in terms
Speaker 1: of whether this will be a tsunami or a wave.
Speaker 1: And another question of that is in your district that
Speaker 1: you were talking about earlier, Crystal, which is Virginia seven.
Speaker 1: It looks like Abigail Spanberger has bounced back and then
Speaker 1: just called it. She held on her. That is a
Speaker 1: really big deal because before we came up, he knows
Speaker 1: a thing or two. So when I was before we
Speaker 1: came into the studio, I had Fox News on, and
Speaker 1: I forget who said this. On Fox. They said, if
Speaker 1: you're looking at just a red wave, what you would
Speaker 1: expect is for yesly Vega to win Virginia seven. They
Speaker 1: were looking at other Virginia districts and saying, if you're
Speaker 1: expecting a tsunami, you would I think it was like
Speaker 1: Virginia ten. It was Jennifer Wexton. It was Wexton. That's right,
Speaker 1: you would expect that you can expect the tsunami. If
Speaker 1: Wexton loses, Abigail Spamburger is not even gonna lose. So again,
Speaker 1: I think what we're looking at here as this number,
Speaker 1: these numbers sort of come out, is a kind of
Speaker 1: targeted tsunami in certain places like in Florida, which is insane. Again,
Speaker 1: like double digit win in in Florida twenty seven insane
Speaker 1: a loss for a Republican I think in Virginia seven,
Speaker 1: which I know it was redrawn, but that was Dave
Speaker 1: Bratt's district in Eric Canter's district, right, Yes, this is
Speaker 1: it's it's almost unrecognizable though, because yeah, it's almost completely
Speaker 1: different district. So I mean it's close, Yeah, it's it's
Speaker 1: it is a swing district. Biden did win it, so
Speaker 1: you know there's another seat in Virginia. There were three
Speaker 1: Virginia and Lauria who were basically on the rocks. The
Speaker 1: last one of the lady Lauria, she lost according to CNN,
Speaker 1: she has lost. Now that is a Virginia beach district,
Speaker 1: and it's long been. It's gone back and forth. You
Speaker 1: remember that dude, Scott Rigel, he held that seat. Glenn nine.
Speaker 1: I don't remember Glenn and I he's like this blue
Speaker 1: dog Democrat he held that seat. So anyway, that's one
Speaker 1: that really goes back and forth. Now, if you were
Speaker 1: really like, you know, the the Democratic like actually it's
Speaker 1: going to be a blue wave kind of person, you
Speaker 1: would expect them to hold on to this kind of
Speaker 1: a seat. So it does show you, you know, there
Speaker 1: is a shift towards Republicans, especially I think in the House,
Speaker 1: where the national trends in the national mood are basically
Speaker 1: the thing that determines. But yeah, the fact that Democrats
Speaker 1: held on to two out of those three seats shows
Speaker 1: you it's not quite what Republicans were ultimately hoping for.
Speaker 1: Here's an interesting data point, Nate Cone saying that the
Speaker 1: GOP chance of taking the House has stayed steady. However,
Speaker 1: Democrats now favor to actually hold two hundred and eight seats,
Speaker 1: up from the two oh three at the beginning, so
Speaker 1: you know, five point five more seats they're held on to. Ran.
Speaker 1: As you said, it doesn't necessarily matter in terms of
Speaker 1: the actual doings of the House whether you have two
Speaker 1: three or two o eight whenever you're in the minority.
Speaker 1: But that's an indication to us of the tsunami, the whatever,
Speaker 1: the rain, the wave, that we can try and look
Speaker 1: at same interesting new data actually out of Georgia they
Speaker 1: are back to a true toss up with some of
Speaker 1: the new county data that is coming out. Unfortunately, Georgia
Speaker 1: is still not No county is like near one hundred percent,
Speaker 1: So we don't really have all that good of an
Speaker 1: idea of what's going on, but we do have RUF.
Speaker 1: I think you're right. So we got eighty percent of
Speaker 1: the vote in right now, herschel Walker is at forty
Speaker 1: nine point three. Raphael Warnock is at forty eight point eight,
Speaker 1: So I mean it is Razor type, go ahead, right, Yeah. Oh,
Speaker 1: and I just wanted to talk about weed and psychedelics.
Speaker 1: So something else went on herschel Walker. Yeah, yeah, no,
Speaker 1: I actually think though, one important thing to keep in
Speaker 1: mind is that for Republicans, if herschel Walker doesn't go
Speaker 1: to a runoff, they were told, especially sort of the
Speaker 1: Maga sect, they were told that herschel Walker was an abomination,
Speaker 1: the worst possible candidate that they could put up. And
Speaker 1: herschel Walker from the sort of conventional wisdom standpoint of
Speaker 1: a non sort of typical voter, of a sort of
Speaker 1: DC journalist person, yeah, he's a terrible candidate by a
Speaker 1: lot of different metrics, especially if you're Democrat. Just a
Speaker 1: terrible candidate. But at the same time, if you're a
Speaker 1: Trump voter, you might look at herschel Walker and the
Speaker 1: way that he handled all of that oppo research that
Speaker 1: was dumped on him in October about potentially paying for abortions,
Speaker 1: which he didn't, which seems ridiculous to me that he's
Speaker 1: denying it. But anyway, the point is he handled that
Speaker 1: in a sort of Trumpian fashion, which just like this
Speaker 1: is baked in to the herschel Walker that people think
Speaker 1: they already know it doesn't bother him. It was this
Speaker 1: idea that like he was changed, and so saying what
Speaker 1: he did in the past only confirms his point that
Speaker 1: he changed. So there are some of these candidates. Herschel Walker,
Speaker 1: doctor Oz is one of them. I think Ron Johnson
Speaker 1: you can count as one of them, Blake Masters, Carrie Lake.
Speaker 1: We don't know what's going to happen with them. But
Speaker 1: what's going to happen in this internice fight among Republicans
Speaker 1: is some people are going to say if herschel Walker
Speaker 1: pulls it out, which we don't know, they're going to say, Look,
Speaker 1: Mitch McConnell, it was all fine, Well what was wrong
Speaker 1: with you? But Shapiro's early win is a good sign
Speaker 1: of to the contract. Well, you don't have to go
Speaker 1: to Pennsylvania. Look at Georgia, Brian Kemp and Roethensberger. They've
Speaker 1: already been declared to a great point, and it wasn't
Speaker 1: even close. I think it's a great in fact, Roethensberger,
Speaker 1: you know, one by an even larger margin than Kemp.
Speaker 1: So if you're really trying to make the apples tables
Speaker 1: comparison here, Herschel Walker is dramatically underperforming what his fellow
Speaker 1: Republicans are. And you know, obviously, like they did not
Speaker 1: go along with stop this deal, they very courageously really
Speaker 1: stood up directly to Donald Trump and voters clearly rewarding
Speaker 1: them for that independence ultimately, and Kemp survived his primary
Speaker 1: ultimately very easily too, which was kind of a surprise
Speaker 1: to me. Honestly, I think that's a good point. Also,
Speaker 1: they would counter and say nobody got more hate this
Speaker 1: cycle than Herschel That's just how they would counter it.
Speaker 1: But Ryan, what were you going to say if he
Speaker 1: does win and what Democrats ought to do is flip
Speaker 1: the script and just lobby him relentlessly. If you want
Speaker 1: to throw these complete wild cards into the Senate, then
Speaker 1: you know what, we're going to talk to this guy.
Speaker 1: That'd be interesting because if you talk if he's conservative,
Speaker 1: he's like got some lazy, generine sort of general view.
Speaker 1: It was like the world. But you sit him down
Speaker 1: before a vote with the person that can connect with him,
Speaker 1: you don't know how he's going to vote. So here's
Speaker 1: an interesting number. Seventy one percent of the vote is
Speaker 1: in in Lauren Bobert's district. CBS is flagging this as
Speaker 1: a potential upset for the Democrat Adam Frish, who is
Speaker 1: right now up at fifty two percent of the vote
Speaker 1: and Bobert is at forty seven point nine, so almost
Speaker 1: forty eight, she's down four points. Wow, with seventy one
Speaker 1: percent of this that would be big. Well, this gives
Speaker 1: me one in to my psychedelic point. At least Colorado
Speaker 1: has psychedelics on the ballot. Didn't Degreaver Denver already had
Speaker 1: psychedelics right right? Yeah, okay Colorado. Colorado has its statewide
Speaker 1: on the ballot. Okay, it's up right now by thirty
Speaker 1: three points. Holy do they have absolute blowout. Wow. I
Speaker 1: don't know what else Colorada has. That one's going to
Speaker 1: be on the ballot and Bobert goes down. That's a
Speaker 1: lot of that. One's going to bring the young people out, Yeah,
Speaker 1: and other tinerant voters who are like that's they are
Speaker 1: our block. Theineran. I saw them at Bataru. Yeah, and
Speaker 1: they're like, look, okay, wait, you're going to legalize mushrooms here, Okay,
Speaker 1: I'll come out and do the vote for that. Oh
Speaker 1: and Polbert's on the ballot too. Don't like her? Yeah,
Speaker 1: you know, Emily's not wrong. Like they've got seventy percent
Speaker 1: of the vote there in that district. Yeah, and she's
Speaker 1: you know, she's not up by all that much. Interesting,
Speaker 1: So checking in again, Gretchen Whitmer twenty five percent, she's
Speaker 1: at fifty three forty four. Also, you know, I have
Speaker 1: to come back to the Camp numbers. Brian Camp is
Speaker 1: destroying Stacy Abrams right at fifty four to forty five.
Speaker 1: I mean it is not even close, like a nine
Speaker 1: point margin with eighty one percent. Can I say, I
Speaker 1: think that's also worth when you're looking at Abrams. I
Speaker 1: think it's also worth looking at Christ and Demings, which
Speaker 1: got a ton of money. Yes they did so, Stacy Abrams,
Speaker 1: Charlie crist but especially also Val Demings and Stacy Abrams,
Speaker 1: like they got so much money and we already know
Speaker 1: that the getting trounced. Those are three money pits for Democrats.
Speaker 1: It's so weird right to look at, Like Florida is
Speaker 1: the biggest Republican story of the night. I mean, Desanta's
Speaker 1: has won now by twenty points, that's insane. I mean
Speaker 1: in modern Florida history, I can't even think of a
Speaker 1: single you know election to even come close to that.
Speaker 1: And the in terms of Marco Rubio and his victory
Speaker 1: there same thing. I mean, he's running ahead by sixteen points.
Speaker 1: Like if you look at the two of those. Yeah,
Speaker 1: val Deming spent seventy five million to lose by sixty
Speaker 1: to lose as if she was running in a deep
Speaker 1: red state like Southwell, she also did she do the
Speaker 1: like didn't she was a police officer y, Yeah, whe
Speaker 1: she did a kind of like I'm the sort of
Speaker 1: like tough on crime. Yeah. And she was a really
Speaker 1: good candidate And it's a shame that Democrats had to
Speaker 1: waste her in a like unwinnable rate. Like Beasley was
Speaker 1: not a very good candidate. Beasley was fine as far
Speaker 1: as you know. She's kind of a run of the
Speaker 1: mill Democrat, not objectionable to anybody, but like wasn't blowing
Speaker 1: anybody away, whereas Valdemi has had like some some real
Speaker 1: political skill that she brought to this race. It was
Speaker 1: like that that's going to move the needle maybe two points,
Speaker 1: right whereas and that might be that might be something
Speaker 1: that Beasley ends up like if Beasley runs in Florida,
Speaker 1: like maybe she loses five right. No, So we've we've
Speaker 1: been talking a lot about ticket splitters, which, you know,
Speaker 1: considering how hard and how partisan whatever, the fact that
Speaker 1: ticket splitters are obviously a really significant part of the
Speaker 1: story is quite interesting. And in Arizona you have this
Speaker 1: dynamic again, although maybe somewhat less extreme than we see
Speaker 1: in other places. Right now, Carrie Lake is running about
Speaker 1: four percent ahead of Blake Masters in Maricopa County. So
Speaker 1: that's tough. That's like, I guess if you do the
Speaker 1: election denial, but you're like good on TV. But here's
Speaker 1: the thing. Does anybody does anybody? She is good? Though? Look,
Speaker 1: I will say her career, that lady, that lady is
Speaker 1: a star. I honestly, and I say this with no pleasure.
Speaker 1: I think she will be probably she will be President's wedding.
Speaker 1: I don't win though, Yeah she doesn't, you know what
Speaker 1: it really I mean, I got to look at the
Speaker 1: projections with her. But it's definitely not clear she wins
Speaker 1: at this point. I mean, considering Kelly has a significant
Speaker 1: lead of her Masters enough for the New York Times
Speaker 1: to say the race is leaning toward Kelly. You know,
Speaker 1: at the very least, it's going to be cool. Think
Speaker 1: about it this way, What are the chances that Lake
Speaker 1: wins by four or more? Yeah, at this point, like,
Speaker 1: it's not even clearer she'll probably win, right, not totally
Speaker 1: clear that she'll win. But if she wins by less
Speaker 1: than four and Masters is running four points behind her,
Speaker 1: then he's toasted. Like he needs to close the gap.
Speaker 1: He needs to be running a little bit closer to Lake.
Speaker 1: Unless you think Lake's gonna win with this significant I'm
Speaker 1: not sure. Yeah, maybe you guys are right, because maybe
Speaker 1: somebody help me understand this, right, because you've got forty
Speaker 1: percent of the vote in and you've got Katie Hobbs
Speaker 1: at fifty five and Carrie Lake at forty five. But
Speaker 1: in the the Senate it's actually Blake Masters is running
Speaker 1: four points behind that, but Mark Kelly is retaining the
Speaker 1: same amount of votes. So does that mean that there's
Speaker 1: ticket splitting going on with Katie Hobbs or are we
Speaker 1: seeing a significant underperformance here with Kerry Lake, I mean
Speaker 1: the other Lake Kelly voters. So right now we've got
Speaker 1: Maricopa still only in fifty three percent. But as I
Speaker 1: understand it, that one is like that was the major
Speaker 1: bell weather right like where Biden I think he won
Speaker 1: by fifty one percent or something, so that was a
Speaker 1: big event. We still only got fifty three percent in there.
Speaker 1: There are two counties in Arizona where we don't have
Speaker 1: any vote in at all. I'm not unfamiliar enough with
Speaker 1: the geography of Arizona to say the rest of the counties,
Speaker 1: it does look like it's around like fifty to sixty
Speaker 1: something percent that are reporting in. So this could be
Speaker 1: premature in the way that we're talking here right emily
Speaker 1: about Arizona. Or are we seeing an underperformance like we
Speaker 1: are pretty much all across the board. Yeah, I mean,
Speaker 1: I do think it's early. But if we are seeing
Speaker 1: similar mpers to what we saw in Pennsylvania, if you're
Speaker 1: seeing similar numbers to what we saw with the Spanburger district,
Speaker 1: then yeah, we would expect this to be within a
Speaker 1: margin of like one or two percent for both carry
Speaker 1: Lake and Blake Masters. With masters running a little bit
Speaker 1: behind her probably. And one thing I wanted to toss
Speaker 1: to you guys was I pulled this quote from Dave
Speaker 1: Wasserman just yesterday. He said, encouraging news for Dems. In
Speaker 1: the final NBC News poll, voting enthusiasm gap closes from
Speaker 1: seventy eight percent to sixty nine percent pro R two.
Speaker 1: And this is like way counter narrative from what the
Speaker 1: legacy media was talking about the last few days to
Speaker 1: seventy three to seventy three percent. The enthusiasm gap closed. Yeah,
Speaker 1: in the days leading up to the election, with as
Speaker 1: you've been pointing out, crystal super high gas prices, a
Speaker 1: very unpopular president, the consumer price index, crazy high, real
Speaker 1: wages down, all of these different things, bad housing market. Now,
Speaker 1: Wasserman continued, biggest problem for Dems is still independence. Just
Speaker 1: twenty eight percent approve of Biden and sixty six to
Speaker 1: twenty eight percent say cost of living is more important
Speaker 1: than abortion. But when you have Democrats with that same
Speaker 1: level of enthusiasm and a five NBC newspots seventy three
Speaker 1: to seventy three percent, that is telling. That's very interesting.
Speaker 1: I do really feel like that's almost the key story
Speaker 1: of this election, as we see it so far, because again,
Speaker 1: if it was normal midterm election, party in power, economy
Speaker 1: is terrible, people are angry, not having residential preper rating
Speaker 1: really low, you would see much worse results than even
Speaker 1: what we know already. And so I really do think
Speaker 1: what is different is that you do have that democratic enthusiasm.
Speaker 1: Number I do think that is the story of what
Speaker 1: makes this election different than other midterm elections. And I
Speaker 1: think that comes from a couple places. I mean, number one,
Speaker 1: Donald Trump continues to be he's not on the ballad.
Speaker 1: He's a very motivating factor. It doesn't help that he's
Speaker 1: out there like maybe I'm better know it's something to
Speaker 1: run tonight or maybe next week or whatever. That's a
Speaker 1: good point. Yeah, I mean that you know, that was
Speaker 1: probably not helpful. So there's a sense of like the
Speaker 1: stakes are existential. And then I do also think that
Speaker 1: previously Biden's approval rating with Democrats was really not great,
Speaker 1: and once he did some stuff that they liked, his
Speaker 1: approval rating with Democrats went up really significantly and they
Speaker 1: sort of like rallied around him and that was responsible
Speaker 1: for his uptick in terms of the approval rating. And
Speaker 1: so I think it's the combination of like, actually, they're
Speaker 1: kind of good with some of the things Biden's been
Speaker 1: getting accomplished. They feel like he's been a decent president,
Speaker 1: even though they, you know, continue to tell polsters they'd
Speaker 1: rather have someone else next time around. But they're like, Okay,
Speaker 1: you're getting some stuff done, and we really don't want
Speaker 1: these people in there, and Donald Trump is ready to
Speaker 1: run for president, we got to go vote to me,
Speaker 1: those dynamics are what is making this result different from
Speaker 1: what the typical midterm result was. Here's an interesting call
Speaker 1: against from our president friends. The first the trigger happy,
Speaker 1: but still interesting. Nonetheless, they're calling the race for Maggie Hassen.
Speaker 1: They're saying that Maggie Hassen there Wuen's re election there. Also,
Speaker 1: here's a really interesting stat from Pennsylvania, and this gets
Speaker 1: to exactly what you were talking about. Out with outperforming Biden.
Speaker 1: He's outperforming it in all eight of those districts, Crystal
Speaker 1: that you would highlighted before, all eight of the Pennsylvania
Speaker 1: counties that fully have reported their vote, He's outperforming them
Speaker 1: in every single one of them, meaning that Oz will
Speaker 1: have to significantly outrun outrun Trump in the Philly suburbs. Well,
Speaker 1: now I think that's still possible, right, Yeah, I do
Speaker 1: think that is one Emily was talking about sort of
Speaker 1: the media narrative around herschel Walker. I mean, there is
Speaker 1: like an immediate narrative around John Fetterman two and the
Speaker 1: impact of his stroke, and you know, ultimately I highlighted
Speaker 1: this earlier, even after seeing the debate performance and that
Speaker 1: was very difficult for everybody to watch and understanding their
Speaker 1: you know, very significant lingering effects of the stroke. People
Speaker 1: still like John Fetterman a lot more than they like
Speaker 1: doctor Oz. And at the end of the day, I mean,
Speaker 1: if he pulls us out and he ultimately wins, I
Speaker 1: think that's going to be a lot of the reason
Speaker 1: why Just Sam, I was just texting with a Fetterman person. Yeah,
Speaker 1: how are they feeling? Said, Oz only got bad news
Speaker 1: so far. We got to make sure we hold our
Speaker 1: own in the suburbs, which goes to your point, that
Speaker 1: is a really big deal. Feels good knock on wood suburbs.
Speaker 1: Like if Oz. If Oz's hope is in the Philadelphia suburbs,
Speaker 1: that's not the hope He's not when he went into
Speaker 1: the But yeah, that's right. But in that sort of
Speaker 1: the feeling that Republicans had going into tonight that was
Speaker 1: the hope, because these are people that are voting on
Speaker 1: what they see as pocketbook issues, that are voting on inflation,
Speaker 1: that are voting on education. That actually was they were saying,
Speaker 1: we did it. We got those swing voters back in
Speaker 1: the suburbs at least for this cycle, because of both
Speaker 1: the economy and culture war issues. They really saw the
Speaker 1: culture were issues as a win for them on this
Speaker 1: point because of education. And I think, you know, that's
Speaker 1: clearly the case in Florida, and I think we're going
Speaker 1: to see a couple of pockets where that is true,
Speaker 1: but it's clearly not going to be true in different pockets,
Speaker 1: and that might be the real story going out of this.
Speaker 1: And a really counter narrative question that I want to
Speaker 1: talk to you guys is whether abortion and democracy very
Speaker 1: counter narrative. They're so helpful enough with a democratic base
Speaker 1: that they offset perhaps some Republican gains. I'm not saying
Speaker 1: that happened, but I'm saying, what if actually the numbers,
Speaker 1: the internal numbers that Democrats had when they were poll
Speaker 1: testing talking about democracy, waxing poetic about democracy and talking
Speaker 1: about Dobbs. What if that actually did help them in
Speaker 1: the Philly suburbs significantly. I think I think abortion and
Speaker 1: democracy are actually shorthands for what Crystal was saying earlier,
Speaker 1: which is that a okay, abortion really mattered and really
Speaker 1: joe people out the pulp, and democracy can can be
Speaker 1: considered to be a stand in for what you were
Speaker 1: saying about these people are crazy. Mastrian is totally crazy
Speaker 1: and this is not the country that we see ourselves
Speaker 1: as part abortion. It's even some of the stuff they're saying,
Speaker 1: cutting social Security, medicare like, all of this are like,
Speaker 1: I don't know. This was what came out in the
Speaker 1: New York Times in a college pole that I personally
Speaker 1: was very skeptical of. It was like, this looks very
Speaker 1: rosy for Democrats and they've been off before and I
Speaker 1: don't really think so. It very oft Yeah, one of
Speaker 1: their big takeaways was overall, people want Republicans to control
Speaker 1: the Senate, but they don't like the Republican candidates. They
Speaker 1: prefer the Democratic candidates in their state. And so I
Speaker 1: think that's, you know, part of what you are seeing
Speaker 1: ultimately play out here. I also remember soccer, We covered
Speaker 1: that Wall Street Journal poll that had white suburban women
Speaker 1: fleeing the Democratic Party and moving abruptly to the Republican Party.
Speaker 1: From the time of like Roe versus Wade and the
Speaker 1: maximums Democratic hopes to the close of the election, that
Speaker 1: I'm really starting to question because especially when you look
Speaker 1: at New Hampshire, right, this is a largess a lot
Speaker 1: of white people in that state, a lot of college
Speaker 1: educated people in that state, a lot of suburban, white
Speaker 1: college educated people in that state. Clearly did not have
Speaker 1: some big shift to the right over either pocketbook issues
Speaker 1: or any culture war issues that they were trying to
Speaker 1: run on. Either. Go ahead, I throw out a point
Speaker 1: that might be crazy, but you're not going to hear
Speaker 1: it anywhere else. All of the talk on the economy
Speaker 1: from the media has been about inflation. Yeah, inflation matters
Speaker 1: to people. Obviously, see gas pumped the groceries. Are not
Speaker 1: dismissing that we are in one of the best jobs
Speaker 1: economies and wage economy. Great point that we have been
Speaker 1: in in fifty years. Yeah, So what if And going
Speaker 1: back to the point I was making earlier about material
Speaker 1: reality versus messaging, what if in order for that economic
Speaker 1: messaging to really break through in a red wave type
Speaker 1: of way, you actually need significant jobleishness and unexployment. Yeah,
Speaker 1: you know what I was wondering about as possible, I
Speaker 1: have a very good point. I think it's an interesting point.
Speaker 1: I don't quite buy it because you have so consistently
Speaker 1: people saying, like, my finances suck, I've been hurt by it,
Speaker 1: my wages are going to inflation, gas prices are hurting me.
Speaker 1: So I think people are genuinely feeling the pain. What
Speaker 1: I wondered about, though, is like when you ask people
Speaker 1: what's causing inflation, they mostly don't say Joe Biden. They
Speaker 1: mostly are like corporate profits, supply chain issues, Ukraine war.
Speaker 1: So I wonder if there was, you know, an attempt
Speaker 1: to totally pin this like this is Joe Biden's fault
Speaker 1: that people just didn't really buy. They actually had kind
Speaker 1: of a more realistic view of like you know, I mean,
Speaker 1: there's inflation everywhere, and we had COVID and all these
Speaker 1: crazy all this crazy shit just happened. So I don't
Speaker 1: know that you could really totally lay the blame at
Speaker 1: their feet. And then I've been very critical of the
Speaker 1: democratic lack of messaging on the economy which I still
Speaker 1: think was a missed opportunity. But perhaps there's a critique
Speaker 1: of the Republican lack of messaging on what they would
Speaker 1: actually do economically, And it turns out it wasn't enough
Speaker 1: just to say like, inflation's bad, inflation's bad, inflation's bad, true,
Speaker 1: when people aren't really persuaded that that is in fact all.
Speaker 1: Joe Biden, that is a fantastic point. And look, I
Speaker 1: think there will be a lot of takeaways from the selection.
Speaker 1: I still think, you know, it could be premature all this.
Speaker 1: Of course, we can only work with the data that
Speaker 1: we have. Also, did want to give people an update,
Speaker 1: which is kind of funny. Maricopa County says they will
Speaker 1: expect to have all their ballots counted by Friday. So
Speaker 1: thank you. We really appreciate the work that you will
Speaker 1: put in over the last two years to make sure
Speaker 1: that we don't have to live through the hell of
Speaker 1: twenty They didn't have to spend the last two years.
Speaker 1: What are you people been doing for the last two years.
Speaker 1: What they've been doing is then recounting because like dodging
Speaker 1: death threats. Okay, Chrys, you've got a big one, yeah, Fetterman.
Speaker 1: According to The New York Times now has a seventy
Speaker 1: three percent. Wow, that's big. Yeah, it is bad. That's
Speaker 1: a big one. So doctor Oz won't have to move
Speaker 1: to Pennsylvania's got eight. When you're that rich, you don't
Speaker 1: live anywhere. You just simply float amongst which sounds kind
Speaker 1: of how many houses he on? He was like, well,
Speaker 1: legitimately I only have three or some. Are we talking
Speaker 1: about tax shelters? Are we talking about houses? Are we're
Speaker 1: talking about that? We're talking about safe houses? Well, okay,
Speaker 1: so a little And this is from Third Way. So
Speaker 1: Third Way to their survey, sent big centrist group and
Speaker 1: they had this this report where they said, to the
Speaker 1: conversation we were just having about the economy, they said
Speaker 1: a majority of voters fifty three percent also worry that
Speaker 1: continued Democratic control of Congress will make inflation worse. Well
Speaker 1: less than a quarter say the same about Republican control,
Speaker 1: and fifty six percent say Democrats are not focused enough
Speaker 1: on the economy. Will only thirty six percent say the
Speaker 1: same about their opponents. So fifty six percent actually, now
Speaker 1: that it comes up or I'm sorry, fifty three percent
Speaker 1: who are worried about whether a democratic control Congress will
Speaker 1: make inflation worse. And then you have according to Third Way,
Speaker 1: fifty four percent of people said that Democrats or that
Speaker 1: Republicans would do a better job handling the inflation and
Speaker 1: the economy. That number is not as high as maybe
Speaker 1: you would expect. Actually that that's actually kind of an
Speaker 1: indicator that in some of these regional blue areas, where
Speaker 1: there's a lot of built in trust and support and
Speaker 1: muscle memory infrastructure wise for Democrats, that we weren't going
Speaker 1: to see a tsunami. Yeah, that that actually in retrospect,
Speaker 1: when we're looking at Shapiro winning, when we're looking at
Speaker 1: Spanburger winning, those are indicators that were not in a
Speaker 1: tsunami period. That kind of gets to it, and maybe
Speaker 1: that in these these blue enclaves, people genuinely that forty
Speaker 1: four percent of voters trust Democrats more. It's very you know,
Speaker 1: like all of the data that is coming out is
Speaker 1: really just it shows us that trying to base our
Speaker 1: priors on twenty eighteen, because twenty eighteen, you know, the
Speaker 1: polls actually work quite off twenty twenty and twenty sixteen.
Speaker 1: Of course, it's difficult, and you know, we have no
Speaker 1: choice but to come really we have no choice but
Speaker 1: to come with the data and the biases of the
Speaker 1: modern history that we have. But in general, like what
Speaker 1: we're seeing here is that I'm even looking at you know,
Speaker 1: Dems might actually gain a seat. And this one district
Speaker 1: in Ohio in Cincinnati, like I'm looking at data that also, Yeah,
Speaker 1: there we go. In the Emily pulled this up here
Speaker 1: from Nate Silver. In house races as toss up or Lean,
Speaker 1: Democrats are leading in seventeen in Republicans only in seven.
Speaker 1: I mean, that is just simply not the scenario which
Speaker 1: I think a lot of us expected. I think the
Speaker 1: takeaways from this are going to be really interesting. With
Speaker 1: the seventy three percent there for John Fetterman, I mean
Speaker 1: that is just that is stunning. Like again, it's early.
Speaker 1: It will take at least a couple of days to
Speaker 1: actually find out what's going on Maricopa County. As I
Speaker 1: alluded to earlier, Georgia actually remains right now in a
Speaker 1: total toss up. They have seventy seven percent of the
Speaker 1: vote that is in there. But well here's another very
Speaker 1: in the pure toss ups, Democrats are ahead and eight
Speaker 1: and the GOP in two. A tsunami that's not what
Speaker 1: you're looking. Yeah, RSI Captor. People people wrote off Marcy Captor,
Speaker 1: but then the Republicans wrote off JR. Madjeuski, like he
Speaker 1: like made up a bunch of stuff. Well he was
Speaker 1: the guy who he got Trump's endorsement by mowing Trump's
Speaker 1: face into his lawn. Oh my god, Oh yeah, remember
Speaker 1: this guy, and he won the prime the Marshall, I thought, Marshall,
Speaker 1: maybe maybe he doesn't he doesn't have a lot, Marshall.
Speaker 1: Marshall's lawn service is that he goes and he has
Speaker 1: a Now he mows in the candidate of your choice
Speaker 1: to try to get the endorsement all of Brooklyn. So
Speaker 1: it looks like, so seventy nine percent in and she's
Speaker 1: up by eight eight percent. I mean, it looks like
Speaker 1: Captor is going to hold on. When I saw the
Speaker 1: first exit polls out that were like nationally motor set
Speaker 1: inflation was most important, like thirty four percent, but abortion
Speaker 1: was kind of close on its heels, I was like,
Speaker 1: that is a different picture than we've been getting from
Speaker 1: these holes leading leading up to now, it's been like
Speaker 1: overwhelmingly inflation, economy, etc. And abortion is like third on
Speaker 1: the list, not even second, and so when I saw that,
Speaker 1: I was like, hmm. Then we got the Pennsylvania exit
Speaker 1: polls and voters there actually put abortion as the number
Speaker 1: one issue, which in some ways makes sense. I mean,
Speaker 1: that might be another thing to parse in the days
Speaker 1: to come, is the states where voters really felt that
Speaker 1: abortion rights were truly at stake, and I would say
Speaker 1: Pennsylvania is one of them. Republicans have both the House
Speaker 1: and the Senate. If you end up with Mastriano as governor,
Speaker 1: they can do whatever they want. So they probably really
Speaker 1: really felt like, oh, this issue is I can actually
Speaker 1: see how my vote is going to change what ultimately
Speaker 1: happens here. So that might be another dynamic sort of
Speaker 1: underpinning what happens what happened here. Two key races on
Speaker 1: in Pennsylvania on that point. One is at Allentown Lehigh Valley,
Speaker 1: people were looking Exus wild as quite vulnerable. She's up
Speaker 1: by six points with sixty five percent in and then
Speaker 1: up in Scranton, which is a race that Emily and
Speaker 1: I covered on Counterpoints a couple of times. Matt Cartwright
Speaker 1: versus Jim Bognet. Matt cart Wright one of the few
Speaker 1: like actually populous Democrats up by ten points. Wow, with
Speaker 1: fifty nine percent in against Jim Bognet and it's not over,
Speaker 1: but they've got him leaning d here how many votes
Speaker 1: percentage of the votes? Fifty nine percent of the vote
Speaker 1: in and he's up by twenty thousand votes. So like,
Speaker 1: that's a hard I think I just realized this. But
Speaker 1: we're all from swing states. Ryan's Pa, Crystal's Virginia or
Speaker 1: Texas in Wisconsin, I don't know if Texas yet. Not yet,
Speaker 1: that's a percent Okay, it happened one time, it is
Speaker 1: like yeah, yeah, yeah the future one day swing say,
Speaker 1: I would have said Virginia is a blue state. That's true, Lily. Okay,
Speaker 1: So Crystal, you and I were doing breaking points tomorrow morning,
Speaker 1: we're going to do a hand off here in a
Speaker 1: little bit. What do you think we should sum up with.
Speaker 1: For let's be clear, it's ten pm on the East coast,
Speaker 1: so as of right now time at this moment, standard time,
Speaker 1: baby standard as hell. All. Yeah, I mean, here's what
Speaker 1: we know. The red tsunami did not happen. Yes, we
Speaker 1: know Republicans underperformed the fundamentals. There's just no doubt about that.
Speaker 1: And I do think it is a real indictment in
Speaker 1: a sense of the direction of the party, especially, I mean,
Speaker 1: abortion extremism has been there for a long time for
Speaker 1: the Republicans, but laying on top of that, like I'm
Speaker 1: not going to accept the results of the elections, I'm
Speaker 1: going to deny what happened in the last one. We're
Speaker 1: going to nominate the most fringe candidates we can possibly find.
Speaker 1: I don't think you can read these results, even if
Speaker 1: everything else sort of falls in the Republicans direction, they
Speaker 1: end up doing better than they've done up to this point.
Speaker 1: I don't think you can read these results given the
Speaker 1: fundamentals of this election, as anything but a rebuke the
Speaker 1: direction of the Republican Party. I think you were correct.
Speaker 1: I think my takeaway from this is that it will
Speaker 1: get I still don't think, by the way, that even
Speaker 1: if even if the Dams do hold the Senate, I
Speaker 1: don't think it will diminish Trump's chances of completely holding
Speaker 1: on to the GOP and all that. Oh yeah, I
Speaker 1: do think this will increase discussion around Trump's hold on
Speaker 1: the GOP, given that he pushed Walker, given that he
Speaker 1: pushed doctor Oz Blake Master. I don't know yet know
Speaker 1: what's going to happen with to Blake Masters, with Carry
Speaker 1: Lake or with Brian Sorry, with Dan Boldock in New Hampshire.
Speaker 1: I have no idea, so let's be clear on all
Speaker 1: of those races. But if some of those lose, or
Speaker 1: if the GOP only wins fifty one seats and they
Speaker 1: don't perform as well in the House, I do think
Speaker 1: it will give Trump is going to have a tougher
Speaker 1: time consolidating you or getting some of the GOP elite
Speaker 1: to bow to him. I'm not saying that this will
Speaker 1: lead in any way to sometis you know, Dysantis win
Speaker 1: or any of that, but it will be difficult to
Speaker 1: say this Republican governor who just blew out Florid would
Speaker 1: turn it into a red state and won by twenty
Speaker 1: points in a way that you never could have. He
Speaker 1: outperforms you dramatically, mean by what sixteen points? Sixteen points? Right?
Speaker 1: Trump won by three point five, Desanta's is now up
Speaker 1: by twenty, so seventeen points, they're sixteen five. Sorry for
Speaker 1: he's out there, Charlie. See this is the This is
Speaker 1: gonna be a tough one because Trump was planning Trump
Speaker 1: was planning on running for in twenty twenty four on
Speaker 1: the back of a red wave. On the expected red wave. Now,
Speaker 1: I still think he's going to run. I still think
Speaker 1: he will win the nomination, to be clear, but this
Speaker 1: will make it a little bit more interesting. We're gonna
Speaker 1: have to see like what the Kopia wants to come
Speaker 1: up with, and I think it will make Mitch McConnell
Speaker 1: and all of them be willing to buck him much
Speaker 1: longer than they would have in the event of a
Speaker 1: red wave scenario. That's a very interesting and good point
Speaker 1: because yeah, I mean, he's announcing next week and the
Speaker 1: thought was there's gonna be a red tsunami tsunamid nominee.
Speaker 1: Now you know it's been four hours, folks, there's going
Speaker 1: to be red tsunami. I'm gonna take credit. Now you're
Speaker 1: taking credit for the like twelve house seats that they
Speaker 1: pick up and the maybe they get to fifty to
Speaker 1: fifty again in the Senate. No, it's a less compelling picture.
Speaker 1: I think that's right. Okay, soccer, we do soccer. We
Speaker 1: do a gift bag for you. Oh what is it?
Speaker 1: What you sean? Patrick Maloney down by ten points? Oh?
Speaker 1: I like that, all right, that's an Ye, We're all true. Yeah, Okay, guys,
Speaker 1: everybody stick around. We're gonna play the ads again just
Speaker 1: so we can all switch things up. Emily and Ryan
Speaker 1: they're going to be here at the desk at least
Speaker 1: until midnight, longer if they need to. So we've got
Speaker 1: a lot of stuff for all of you for the team.
Speaker 1: Go ahead, I go. I just want to remind everybody
Speaker 1: that the reason that we have Emily and Ryan and
Speaker 1: that they are part of our beautiful family here is
Speaker 1: because of you guys. You made counterpoints possible, and I mean,
Speaker 1: you guys are doing such a phenomenal job. I'm a
Speaker 1: genuine fan of the show. I don't know sure episode.
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Speaker 1: can you imagine? All right, So look here's the deal.
Speaker 1: Now the election, we're nearing the end for that, so
Speaker 1: we have to gear up also for twenty twenty four.
Speaker 1: So if you enjoyed this, we've got two years now
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Speaker 1: stream in that year. So to all of you who
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Speaker 1: you all enough in order to make this possible. It's
Speaker 1: very nice to be at this desk and not over
Speaker 1: at the hell desk for an election night, So you
Speaker 1: guys stick around. They will be here in our chairs
Speaker 1: in five minutes and then they're going to continue on
Speaker 1: through the night. Christal will be and I'll be back
Speaker 1: on for breaking points tomorrow morning for a full show.
Speaker 1: We'll try and get it out as early as possible,
Speaker 1: just because we know how we want to sleep with
Speaker 1: my keep on yes right there, pro maybe I won't shower,
Speaker 1: maybe we'll be able to tell with the uh with Okay, guys,
Speaker 1: we'll see you guys. You guys have been back in
Speaker 1: five stick around. Emily and Ryan are taking over the desk.
Speaker 1: Welcome back to the streams and saga's gone, so we
Speaker 1: can talk about drugs now gone, so we can talk
Speaker 1: about drugs. We're talking about in the sort of broader
Speaker 1: context about how this hasn't been necessarily a tsunami, that
Speaker 1: the evidence is not indicating what a lot of Republican
Speaker 1: and prognosticators sort of in the Beltway in general, thought
Speaker 1: might happen over the last few days, that this could
Speaker 1: be a trouncing of shellacking in the words of President Obama,
Speaker 1: what was that in twenty ten or twenty fourteen, and
Speaker 1: a thumping That's what George Bush called his two thousand
Speaker 1: and six loss thumping, and then and then Obama went
Speaker 1: with shellacking shellackin all right, Well, Ryan, we've been covering,
Speaker 1: you know, a lot of these candidates different races, but
Speaker 1: you're following the ballot referendums really closely. And by the way,
Speaker 1: before Ryan digs into the numbers, let's remember that the
Speaker 1: ballot referendums actually are very relevant to what's happening with
Speaker 1: these candidates, because if you have people showing up for abortion,
Speaker 1: let's say, in a state like Michigan, when that's where
Speaker 1: that's on the referendum, if you have people showing up
Speaker 1: for weed, for psychedelics. That makes a difference in some
Speaker 1: of these very close elections. And that's not a thing
Speaker 1: that a lot of legacy media folks factored into their predictions.
Speaker 1: What is it looking like right now, because it's so
Speaker 1: hard to know who's going to come out, and usually
Speaker 1: it is usually you can tell on the side of
Speaker 1: the intensity. So if it's a psychedelic referendum, for instance,
Speaker 1: like in Colorado, there aren't many people who are like
Speaker 1: rabidly hostile to psychedelics and are like only going to
Speaker 1: vote so that they can vote against psychedelics. But you
Speaker 1: are going to have a handful of people who will
Speaker 1: hear that it's on the ballot and they'll come out.
Speaker 1: Now that numbers have gone way down, you want to
Speaker 1: check Bobert while I'm looking at this. By the way,
Speaker 1: great point. So in so Colorado proposition one twenty two,
Speaker 1: this is this is to lea to decriminalize a bunch
Speaker 1: of different psychedelics. It's now up by six points. It
Speaker 1: was up it was up a ton earlier. So that
Speaker 1: that was probably because Boulder and Denver were coming in first,
Speaker 1: and now some of the rural areas are are coming in.
Speaker 1: So it's not clear if this is going to actually
Speaker 1: help Vobert or not. But separate from that, it looks
Speaker 1: like it's it looks like it's still in strong shape,
Speaker 1: which is itself a good thing. Like the more I
Speaker 1: think the more that we can remove penalties around around
Speaker 1: uh psychedelics, the better uh, you know, the better world
Speaker 1: that this becomes. Like also like as we're like facing
Speaker 1: this like dystopian future, where like we were talking earlier
Speaker 1: about people's views on the economy and whether or not
Speaker 1: whether they thought Republicans would make it better, whether the
Speaker 1: Democrats would think it make it better. I think we're
Speaker 1: going to find going forward over over the next decade
Speaker 1: or so that voters aren't going to think anybody is
Speaker 1: going to make anything better. That that people feel that
Speaker 1: we're just on a glide paths of doom and the
Speaker 1: one bright spot it's like at least at least bring
Speaker 1: psychedelics out of the shadows. It does depend on how
Speaker 1: these referendums are written, and there have been psychedelic referendums
Speaker 1: that I've seen, for instance here in DC, that people
Speaker 1: may be favorable to until you kind of read the referendum,
Speaker 1: you're like, there was a better way to write that.
Speaker 1: There was a more consensus way to write that that said,
Speaker 1: ran you, you pulled some really interesting numbers about what
Speaker 1: happened in Kentucky with their abortion reference, and let's just quick,
Speaker 1: how are they holding up that. Let me update everyone
Speaker 1: on Bobert. Bobert is Lauren Bobert. We flagged this over
Speaker 1: the course of the last hour because CBS News actually
Speaker 1: flagged it and said we could have an upset brewing
Speaker 1: in Colorado's third district, and indeed that is continuing. We're
Speaker 1: seeing a really I think shocking. I mean, it's not shocking,
Speaker 1: I guess in terms of candidate quality, but shocking in
Speaker 1: terms of that. It was on absolutely nobody's radar. Nobody's
Speaker 1: radar on the right, nobody's radar the center, maybe nobody's right.
Speaker 1: On the left. Adam Frish, the Democratic candidate, is up
Speaker 1: by so he's up fifty one point eight percent to Bobert,
Speaker 1: Lauren Bobert, who is at forty eight point two percent.
Speaker 1: That's what seventy one percent of votes counted. That's a
Speaker 1: big deal because again, there was this idea that we
Speaker 1: were going into a tsunami, which, by the way, I'll
Speaker 1: freely admit I thought was a possibility. It's not a
Speaker 1: prediction I would have ever written in stone, but I
Speaker 1: thought it was. It was a possibility that we might
Speaker 1: have been looking at over the last few days, given
Speaker 1: where some of these numbers were trending. But and again,
Speaker 1: it could still be a very good night for Republicans.
Speaker 1: We don't totally know yet. It's it is falling short
Speaker 1: of those fantasy predictions, There's no question about it. And
Speaker 1: I think Bobart Bobert being down in the poll, she's
Speaker 1: a very very maggot candidate, as many people know to
Speaker 1: say the very least. That is, it's getting into territory
Speaker 1: where it's looking like this might not this night might
Speaker 1: be a win for Mitch McConnell and a loss for
Speaker 1: Donald Trump. Yeah, and could also be a loss for OZ.
Speaker 1: And apparently we have we have a live update from OZ.
Speaker 1: Can we do we have them? Right? Excellent? Oh, welcome,
Speaker 1: welcome back. We weren't on the first time we were
Speaker 1: in the control room watching your update, Lewis. So what
Speaker 1: was the mood like at the beginning of the night,
Speaker 1: and what's the mood like now? Yeah, thanks for having
Speaker 1: me back on, guys, goodness evil. Yeah, the mood in
Speaker 1: the room has definitely shifted a little bit more negative.
Speaker 1: The first real mood shift was when Fox News, which
Speaker 1: is actually playing on the big screens back here behind
Speaker 1: me if you can't hear them, when Fox News called
Speaker 1: the governor's race for Shapiro. There were definitely some audible
Speaker 1: groans in size throughout the room. Some Yeah, definitely a
Speaker 1: five shift when that happened. Otherwise, folks are still watching.
Speaker 1: There's still some moptimism that the Bulls might turn around,
Speaker 1: but at this stage in the game, I'm definitely of
Speaker 1: Oriz to see betterment still with the lead here as
Speaker 1: more and more results are coming through. Wasn't what I
Speaker 1: was predicting, you know. Yeah, but the moodshift has definitely
Speaker 1: happened quite a bit. If you're just joining us now,
Speaker 1: we're with Louis Dangelis, who is at doctor Oz doctor
Speaker 1: Roger's victory party. We'll see if it actually is a
Speaker 1: victory party at Lewis. I'm curious. There's a lot of excitement.
Speaker 1: You know, you cover these things, you go to different places,
Speaker 1: do you since that there's excitement, particularly for doctor Oz.
Speaker 1: You know, if you go to a Trump rally. It's
Speaker 1: not as though there's all of this excitement for the
Speaker 1: Republican Party. If you're at a Bernie rally, it's not
Speaker 1: as though there's tons of excitement for the Democratic Party.
Speaker 1: Is there a particular sense of excitement for doctor Oz
Speaker 1: as a candidate? This man is a massive television star
Speaker 1: for years and years and years. But are people behind
Speaker 1: him personally or are they sort of anti Fetterman, anti
Speaker 1: dem I think kind of on both sides of this,
Speaker 1: I haven't heard that many folks excited excited about either candidate.
Speaker 1: I kind of talked a little bit about this earlier,
Speaker 1: you know, when we were at the Trump event on
Speaker 1: Saturday night and I was talking to folks there, and
Speaker 1: the first five or six people I talked to, they
Speaker 1: said they were going to be voting for Oz, but
Speaker 1: they weren't that excited about it. For a lot of
Speaker 1: those folks, Oz was not their first choice. The same
Speaker 1: thing goes for Fretterman, though, And one anecdote that I
Speaker 1: definitely want to share is that this is more so
Speaker 1: with Betterman. Voters and folks had those events, Like I mentioned,
Speaker 1: they weren't super excited about him. But I asked people
Speaker 1: what's your number one issue? Despite what a lot of
Speaker 1: the polling has kind of been saying over the last
Speaker 1: couple of weeks, a lot of people's number one issue
Speaker 1: is still abortion, especially with Democrat voters. And you know, I, personally,
Speaker 1: similarly to what you all have said in the past,
Speaker 1: thought that inflation was number one on all sorts of
Speaker 1: this stuff. But abortion seems to potentially be playing a
Speaker 1: bigger role in all of this than we initially thought
Speaker 1: it might. Interesting. I see you're in the press area
Speaker 1: over there. Have you talked to other reporters, what what? What?
Speaker 1: What's the reporter's conventional wisdom as they're watching the numbers
Speaker 1: come in. Surprised? Yeah, we're all kind of in there.
Speaker 1: We were all surprised to see first the you know,
Speaker 1: we're not surprised to see Shapiro having won that race,
Speaker 1: but having it me as larger of a margin as
Speaker 1: it is, and how quickly it's being called. And again
Speaker 1: surprised that Betterment is still up right now. I mean,
Speaker 1: I didn't envision, and a lot of the folks that
Speaker 1: I've been chatting with didn't envision a scenario where Oz
Speaker 1: wasn't up at this point. And then as the mail
Speaker 1: in ballance start to come in. Uh, you know, Betterment
Speaker 1: slowly chips away at the lead, trips away at the lead,
Speaker 1: like we saw with you know, the election with President
Speaker 1: Trump and Biden in twenty twenty. I just again, I
Speaker 1: don't think any of us are really envisioning the scenario
Speaker 1: where better mccamp was in the position that it is
Speaker 1: and the OZ campaign is down at the moment, I
Speaker 1: am hearing some cheers behind me. I'm not sure what
Speaker 1: exactly that is. Bill just as too early to call
Speaker 1: okay there, but you know how it goes, I don't know. Yeah,
Speaker 1: well yeah, and let's I mean, maybe it's splitting hairs.
Speaker 1: But you've been there sort of gauging everybody's temperature. Is
Speaker 1: there cautious You said this a little bit earlier, But
Speaker 1: if we can just keep pulling out that thread, is
Speaker 1: it a sense of cautious optimism? Because in truth, you know,
Speaker 1: I think I think it is surprising to I think
Speaker 1: it's probably surprising to me that it's as close as
Speaker 1: it is right now in the night. But that doesn't
Speaker 1: mean it's over. It certainly doesn't mean it's over. It
Speaker 1: could go one of two ways, obviously, So what is
Speaker 1: the do people still feel okay? Is everybody depressed or
Speaker 1: are they like, all right, well, we're just going to
Speaker 1: be here longer than we thought we would. You know,
Speaker 1: I wouldn't I wouldn't say depressed. Yet, Yes, I agree.
Speaker 1: I think it's more of a I think we're going
Speaker 1: to be here longer than we thought, but definitely concerned
Speaker 1: in the eyes. If you will, yeah, it's yeah, it's
Speaker 1: it's it's less less excitement than I thought was going
Speaker 1: to be going on if if you will, any good
Speaker 1: anecdotes of interactions with OZ voters you can share, Yeah,
Speaker 1: for sure. I talked a little bit about this one
Speaker 1: or earlier. But first I met a bunch of different
Speaker 1: folks who were OZ voters, but they were also Shapiro voters.
Speaker 1: A couple of volunteers for the OZ campaign that I
Speaker 1: spoke with earlier. Obviously, like when folks who are out
Speaker 1: canvassing and whatnot, usually the parties work together, and if
Speaker 1: you're putting out signs for one candidate, you might also
Speaker 1: be doing it for the other. And a lot of
Speaker 1: the OZ volunteers were telling me that they weren't necessarily
Speaker 1: excited about putting Masterriano signs out as well, and they
Speaker 1: don't necessarily support him. They think he goes a little
Speaker 1: bit too far on issues like abortion. They think he
Speaker 1: goes a little too far on some of the certifying
Speaker 1: of the election comments that he's made in the past.
Speaker 1: So that was that was an interesting anecdote. Another interesting
Speaker 1: thing that happened in the room, and I want to
Speaker 1: shout out one of these people. After I was on
Speaker 1: the first time, a Breaking Points premium member from the
Speaker 1: crowd in here came out and bound me. Her name
Speaker 1: is Samantha. I told her I would shout her out,
Speaker 1: so if she's still listening Jumpsters, she'll probably pop back over.
Speaker 1: And then actually an OZ staff person came over and
Speaker 1: the OZ staff member was listening to Breaking Points in
Speaker 1: his ear and came and found me as well, which
Speaker 1: is pretty cool. I gotta say that's awesome. Do you
Speaker 1: get what kind of shwag do you have that shows
Speaker 1: that you're like Breaking Points? I actually don't have any
Speaker 1: Breaking Points swag with me. Maybe you guys can hook
Speaker 1: it up for next time. Well counterpoints counterpoint, well yeah, yes,
Speaker 1: Crystal and Sager did not offer me that earlier, So yeah,
Speaker 1: you guys, what we'll do The counterpoints stuff excellent. So
Speaker 1: she just saw you and the staffer heard you. So
Speaker 1: that's that's how they saw me. They saw and they
Speaker 1: came and found me in the press area. The dress
Speaker 1: are very much weaseled into a tiny, little cooped up area.
Speaker 1: We don't have much space to move around. So yeah,
Speaker 1: if folks are interested, I can try to and then
Speaker 1: I'll let you guys get back to it. I can
Speaker 1: give a quick little we'll see if it works. If
Speaker 1: it doesn't, feel free to pull away. Yeah, yeah, well, yes,
Speaker 1: it's it's actually at a flooding club, I think, like
Speaker 1: a country club type five, but without the uh a
Speaker 1: little bit of the room here on the other side,
Speaker 1: on the other side of all the cameras there, it's
Speaker 1: a little area where we've got our laptops and what
Speaker 1: not set up. But uh, I will say, I do
Speaker 1: think that we're probably the only real independent outlet here,
Speaker 1: which is pretty awesome as well. Mostly just uh the
Speaker 1: big guys are here, local TV stations and whatnot, but
Speaker 1: definitely not seeing any other independent Well, Lewis, We'll try
Speaker 1: to get back to you later. Go ask them. Go
Speaker 1: ask folks there what what the hell happened? How their
Speaker 1: Man couldn't sell this. He's he's been able to sell
Speaker 1: all sorts of things that anybody, all kinds oft but
Speaker 1: he couldn't sell this. Well, we don't know. He may
Speaker 1: come back, we really, yeah, we don't way. We might
Speaker 1: not have like really confidence in these results for the
Speaker 1: next few days because they're having a lot of issues
Speaker 1: counting in Philadelphia based on different cases and reconciliation and
Speaker 1: all dated ballots and all that kod stuff. Lewis, thank
Speaker 1: you so much. It was fantastic. We really appreciate it. Yeah,
Speaker 1: thanks for having me us awesome. New York Times still
Speaker 1: has him up by fifty thousand votes, and New York
Speaker 1: Times is slower, so you might have Fetterman up by
Speaker 1: fifty thousand, up by fifty thousand votes, and so that's
Speaker 1: not a small gap at this point, Like that's seventy
Speaker 1: one percent in fifty thousand up. That's you'd rather be Fetterman.
Speaker 1: They're absolutely rather be fed. Yeah, and especially with the
Speaker 1: remaining I mean, this is your home turf point literally, Yeah,
Speaker 1: you got the Philadelphia suburbs you got Yeah, and they're
Speaker 1: still counting so Philadelphia. Do they count mail in ballots later? Yes,
Speaker 1: So that's what I thought. That's a big advantage. Yes,
Speaker 1: And it's because there was a lawsuit that like banned
Speaker 1: them from counting them earlier by Republicans, and so they're
Speaker 1: so they're moving them through now. But that's why it's
Speaker 1: taking That's why it's taking longer. So if any if
Speaker 1: you hear anybody complaining that Philadelphia takes so long, it's
Speaker 1: because Republicans sued them and stopped them from counting them
Speaker 1: earlier in the way that other counties are allowed to do. So. Yes,
Speaker 1: so you would if you were Fetterman and you were
Speaker 1: down by fifty thousand, you might be thinking, like, hey,
Speaker 1: I still have some hope. I'm probably gonna lose, but
Speaker 1: I have a hope Fetterman being up by fifty thousand
Speaker 1: at this point, I think he's feeling pretty good. We'll see.
Speaker 1: But but like you said, like the suburbs, how the
Speaker 1: suburbs come in, and how the culture wars, you know,
Speaker 1: shake out. We're going to talk. We'll talk to Terry Shilling,
Speaker 1: who's been, you know, waging the culture war all over
Speaker 1: the country in this in this camp. Pain is probably
Speaker 1: disappointed that it's at these results so far. Yeah, I
Speaker 1: don't know. I mean a lot of that was a
Speaker 1: lot of those efforts, and we'll ask Terry. I think
Speaker 1: he spent about fifteen million dollars on ads if I'm correct,
Speaker 1: and a lot of that there should be a lot
Speaker 1: of money. Yeah, a lot of that those in Arizona,
Speaker 1: and we just don't know what's happening in Arizona. We
Speaker 1: don't know what's happening with Catherine Cortez Masto. These are
Speaker 1: some big places. And Oregon is another place where you
Speaker 1: haven't had a governor that's Republican since the nineteen eighties.
Speaker 1: We have no idea what's happening in that race. But
Speaker 1: what we do have are indicators. For instance, from Virginia seven,
Speaker 1: that's Crystal's district where Abigail Spanberger seems to have eked
Speaker 1: out that win. It's been called she's eked out that win.
Speaker 1: And that was supposed to be one of the bell
Speaker 1: weather districts that not just for a tsunami, but just
Speaker 1: for a red wave. So a red wave would have
Speaker 1: been if Yesli Bargo wins Virginio seven, Republican just knocks
Speaker 1: out thecumbent Abigail Spamburger. It is a different district. But
Speaker 1: if that were the case, then people said, all right,
Speaker 1: then we can look at Jennifer Wexton, then we can
Speaker 1: look at Virginia ten. If she loses, then we're in
Speaker 1: for a tsunami. And that hasn't been the case. One
Speaker 1: thing that I think is important to start teasing out here, though,
Speaker 1: and this is this is kind of the the big
Speaker 1: story in the legacy media right now, and I think
Speaker 1: genuinely sort of across the board, because the narrative going
Speaker 1: into this was Momentum is building for Republicans. Momentum is
Speaker 1: building for Republicans. But at the same time, there was
Speaker 1: a lot of coverage over the course of the summer
Speaker 1: about how they were going to be shocking Democratic upsets,
Speaker 1: whether it's val Deming's toppling Mark or Rubio, whether it's
Speaker 1: like that was like a big jd Vance losing jd
Speaker 1: Vance has been called for jd Vance. As far as
Speaker 1: we know, jad Vance is going to handle that up
Speaker 1: by ten, He's going to handle that easily. I think
Speaker 1: what we're potentially looking at here are sort of spotty tsunamis,
Speaker 1: and that's just the numbers. Because one of the districts
Speaker 1: we've zeroed in on is Florida twenty seven. Florida twenty seven,
Speaker 1: And I hate to sound like a broken record, but
Speaker 1: if you're just tuning in here, now, that's a district
Speaker 1: that Donald Trump eked out a win in. If you
Speaker 1: look at the Daily Coast tabulations, which they do a
Speaker 1: really helpful thing. They put it a full spreadsheet so
Speaker 1: you can see how the new redrawn districts that people
Speaker 1: are voting in tonight would have voted in twenty twenty,
Speaker 1: just barely by the by like one percent. You get
Speaker 1: a win for Donald Trump in that district. Maria Elvirus
Speaker 1: Salazar Republican looks to have taken that by double digits.
Speaker 1: And that's going to be thanks in part to the
Speaker 1: Cuban vote, to the Hispanic vote. The Cuban vote is
Speaker 1: a very specific kind of vote. The Hispanic vote more
Speaker 1: broadly is not a monolith. But that is really really interesting.
Speaker 1: And again in Florida, we just see Ron de Santis
Speaker 1: outperforming Donald Trump. We see Mark or Rubio doing better
Speaker 1: than people expected him to. And where we're going to
Speaker 1: continue looking is Texas. If we see in the Rio
Speaker 1: Grand Valley numbers like that for Myrafloras in the thirty fourth,
Speaker 1: these are going to be where you see not the
Speaker 1: across the board tsunami, but you do see Republicans walking
Speaker 1: away from tonight. Potentially, we don't know yet with the
Speaker 1: sense that the realignment and when it comes to Hispanic voters,
Speaker 1: maybe if we're zooming into Milwaukee and Philadelphia over the
Speaker 1: next few days, maybe Democrats lose some enthusiasm, lose some
Speaker 1: support in the black vote. We don't know, but that's
Speaker 1: very much still on the table, especially given some of
Speaker 1: the results that are already in so to just sort
Speaker 1: of to poke a little bit of a hole in
Speaker 1: that broader narrative. And I'm not just saying this because
Speaker 1: I'm conservative. I'm saying this because I do think it's
Speaker 1: worth pushing back a little bit on the narrative that's congealing.
Speaker 1: At the same time, though that top line very much
Speaker 1: is the case is very clear. That top line is
Speaker 1: that the tsunami fantasy that Republicans had been sort of
Speaker 1: gloating about, I would say the last few days, and
Speaker 1: I really thought that was a probability or a possibility,
Speaker 1: not a probability, but a possibility that's not going to
Speaker 1: pan out. Although if you're going to Pocohol, does this
Speaker 1: patch the whole back up? We got one point three
Speaker 1: million votes counted in Arizona. No, because only Katie Hobbs
Speaker 1: being up over Carry Lake. So she's up. That's I
Speaker 1: would not expect that though. I mean, so you've got
Speaker 1: so in Arizona, you have the northeastern Apache County, which
Speaker 1: is Republican, not reporting anything at all. Yet you have
Speaker 1: Navajo County only reporting half, although that's fairly split the
Speaker 1: big I don't know. I mean, you would expect Carrie
Speaker 1: Lake to be doing better than this if she was
Speaker 1: going to win at this point. So compared to so
Speaker 1: she's down fifty seven forty three, compared to Mark Mark Kelly,
Speaker 1: who's who's up fifty eight to forty Oh no, not sorry,
Speaker 1: not fifty eight forty that's that's in one county. Not
Speaker 1: not not what people were expecting. I think it's it's
Speaker 1: tough to say with forty seven percent, but we'll those
Speaker 1: numbers will change and the very it is fifty yeah,
Speaker 1: it is fifty eight to forty right now, right, yeah,
Speaker 1: So those numbers can change a lot one point and
Speaker 1: then we don't do we have anything in on Texas
Speaker 1: yet because one point. Oh here, if numbers are starting
Speaker 1: to come in, yes, one point on Miami and South Florida,
Speaker 1: it's it's such an unusual place in you know, when
Speaker 1: Obama was elected, there was this sense that the next
Speaker 1: generation of Cubans were going to move democratic and this
Speaker 1: was going to become a city that basically voted in
Speaker 1: the same way that a lot of other cities did.
Speaker 1: Eventually as the kind of hostility that Democrats died out,
Speaker 1: hostility which is literally still rooted in hostility towards JFK
Speaker 1: for his betrayal during the Bay of Pigs. Like that's
Speaker 1: Miami Cubans support the embargo right right, but not the
Speaker 1: children of those Cubans, So but a ton of them
Speaker 1: moved away. And then you also had this mass influx
Speaker 1: of rich, right wing Venezuelans, Colombians, South Americans, Mexicans across
Speaker 1: the board. So in Miami went from a place that
Speaker 1: was very Cuban American dominated to now being a place
Speaker 1: where basically people with right wing politics already and wealth
Speaker 1: from South and Central America are heading. And I think
Speaker 1: it is reshaping the entire politics of South South Florida.
Speaker 1: Combined with the trumpification of the entire state, but also
Speaker 1: maybe reshaping the politics of southeastern Texas, and that is
Speaker 1: and perhaps we'll see some of So let's roll through
Speaker 1: some of this. So Maya Flores, that's one we were
Speaker 1: looking at, right, Yeah, Myra Flores, So thirty four, she's
Speaker 1: down by ten thousand votes with sixty seven percent in.
Speaker 1: That's super interesting because that's again a tsunami would have
Speaker 1: been Myra Flores right now, comfortable, right comfortable, and she
Speaker 1: down eleven eleven percent against Vicenta Gonzale. She is a
Speaker 1: very good candidate from the perspective of Republicans, from the
Speaker 1: perspective of me, I mean as a conservative journalist, I've
Speaker 1: I've talked to her. I think she's a good candidate.
Speaker 1: We don't know what happens there. Looks like Michelle Vaejo
Speaker 1: is going to lose. That's that's a big to Monica
Speaker 1: de la Cruz. She's down by eleven points with seventy
Speaker 1: seven percent of the vote in. So this is roughly
Speaker 1: the same. Now there's a ten percent more in in
Speaker 1: fifteen here. So now Henry Henry Quaar cruising despite that
Speaker 1: was another big if that's a same subject of a loser, right,
Speaker 1: So he's he's up by He's up by twelve points.
Speaker 1: He's up by fourteen thousand votes. Greg gasar squad member,
Speaker 1: incoming squad member. He was obviously always going to win.
Speaker 1: He's he's up by fifty points. This is an Austin,
Speaker 1: Austin guy. Let's see who else wal Qing Castro oh here,
Speaker 1: Tony Gonzalez winning comfortably Republican Tony Gonzalez, what other whatever?
Speaker 1: So the Myyra Flores you said, they were, like, what's
Speaker 1: fifty percent in in Texas six sixty seven sixty seven percent,
Speaker 1: she's down by eleven percentage points in ten thousand votes.
Speaker 1: So they redrew that district. But that's a again that
Speaker 1: Republicans felt very good about that, right they loved Meyra Flores,
Speaker 1: like she became like a celebrity, like she's our counter
Speaker 1: to AOC, and again like she's a good candidate, could
Speaker 1: come back and win. But it's not looking good for
Speaker 1: her right now. Well, and it's certainly not an easy,
Speaker 1: comfortable win either way. And and that's and we're again
Speaker 1: we're looking at Lauren Bobert. How's Bobert looking so like,
Speaker 1: let's just be clear, Bobert's at forty eight percent yeah, okay,
Speaker 1: so it's still the last time we said it was
Speaker 1: at seventy one percent reporting. Frish is at fifty one
Speaker 1: point nine, Bobert's at forty eight point one. This is
Speaker 1: not a race that was on anybody's radar. But let's
Speaker 1: continue on and just say we had over the summer expectations.
Speaker 1: I mean, Ron Johnson is going to win. There was
Speaker 1: an expectation that perhaps Ron Johnson wasn't going to win.
Speaker 1: It looks like right now Ron Johnson is going to win.
Speaker 1: He's going to be I thought he would win by
Speaker 1: eight or ten. You did, Yeah, he's He's only up
Speaker 1: by a couple at this point. Right, Well, he might
Speaker 1: still end it. It's early. Yeah, although I imagine the
Speaker 1: votes on milwaukeeer saw it standing. But so that was
Speaker 1: there was this idea that Ron Johnson probably wasn't going
Speaker 1: to pull it out. There was real chatter that Mark
Speaker 1: Rubio might lose. That sounds ridiculous, but there was real
Speaker 1: chatter that jd Vance might lose. Jd Vance has won.
Speaker 1: So it is the case that we've seen some counter
Speaker 1: narrative Republican victories here and that Republicans that were sort
Speaker 1: of counted out over the course of the summer have
Speaker 1: been able to hang on. And so that's why I
Speaker 1: do think there's a little bit of air being let
Speaker 1: out of the balloon right now, a lot of air
Speaker 1: probably for Republicans. If you lose Myra Flores, if you
Speaker 1: lose I mean they lost to Shapiro in Pennsylvania. If
Speaker 1: you're losing New Hampshire. They did lose New Hampshire. That's
Speaker 1: been called for Maki Hassid. These were the fantasy things
Speaker 1: that seemed in reach. That's letting air out of the balloon.
Speaker 1: There's no question about it. The same thing or same
Speaker 1: story though in Florida. On the flip side, this is
Speaker 1: big stuff. In Ohio, that's a big win for jd
Speaker 1: Vance especially, you know when Mitch McConnell didn't want jad
Speaker 1: Vance to do anything. So from the perspective of, you know,
Speaker 1: the sort of right more broadly, I don't think they're
Speaker 1: depressed right now. I should check in with some sort
Speaker 1: of is while we're talking here and see what the
Speaker 1: mood is. I don't think they're depressed, but I do
Speaker 1: think there's deflation. I imagine another one that people were
Speaker 1: watching Democrats were watching closely. Johanna Hayes, who represents a
Speaker 1: swing district in Connecticut, and she's been a super progressive
Speaker 1: in her voting record, and she was famously she was
Speaker 1: I think Teacher of the Year in twenty fifteen twenty sixteen.
Speaker 1: Grew up in a housing project in this very rich district,
Speaker 1: now represents the district. Had always said, look, you want
Speaker 1: to if I'm going to say what I believe, if
Speaker 1: I'm a one term member of Congress, that's what it is.
Speaker 1: She now looks like she's on her way to her
Speaker 1: third term. She's up. I mean, she's only up by
Speaker 1: four points with forty percent in, but she's you know,
Speaker 1: if it were that kind of red wave year, she'd
Speaker 1: be down right now and people would be stressing, oh wow,
Speaker 1: like Johanna Hayes is out. What about Michigan? So Michigan?
Speaker 1: And do we have Terry ready? Let's see he's almost ready,
Speaker 1: but Michigan. It's another good example that's a fantasy, that's
Speaker 1: a fantasy win for Republicans that it felt like we're
Speaker 1: at their fingertips that were going to knock out Gretchen
Speaker 1: Whitmer because of COVID. It's something we haven't even talked
Speaker 1: about on the broadcast so far, that's certainly front and
Speaker 1: center in a lot of voters' minds school lockdowns. Gretchen
Speaker 1: Whitmer has really tried to pretend that her her legacy
Speaker 1: of school lockdowns isn't what it is and isn't what
Speaker 1: it was, and looks like she's going to pull this
Speaker 1: out so interestingly Alyssa Slotkin, So the Times lists are
Speaker 1: down by twelve points, but they still lift it leaning
Speaker 1: D which means there must be a lot of Democratic
Speaker 1: areas still out, but she has by no means, you know,
Speaker 1: put that one away. Alyssa Slockin is one of the
Speaker 1: key Democrats that there that they're trying to knock out.
Speaker 1: Hillary Schulton is still leaning D up fifty two forty
Speaker 1: five against against John Gibbs was the one that Democrats
Speaker 1: put a bunch of money in behind right to try
Speaker 1: to this. That was one of their plays where they're like,
Speaker 1: we're going to go elect an unelectable right winger and
Speaker 1: then how ha ha ha, we'll own the Republicans that way.
Speaker 1: They did that with Baul Duke in New Hampshire. Was
Speaker 1: Gibbs the one that beat the modern Republican that everybody hates.
Speaker 1: I don't know. Well, so we have actually Terry here.
Speaker 1: On last week's Counterpoints, we played some ads specifically, I
Speaker 1: think we focused and played this ad from Nevada against
Speaker 1: Catherine Cortez Masto that was produced by the American Principles Project.
Speaker 1: And we have Terry Shilling here with us now from
Speaker 1: the American Principles Project. Terry, welcome to Counterpoints. We're excited
Speaker 1: to have you here on election night. Hey, thanks so
Speaker 1: much for having me, Emily and Ryan. It's really great
Speaker 1: to be here. So you've got an American Principals Project
Speaker 1: has a decent chunk of change on the line to night.
Speaker 1: I think you guys have spent fifth teen million dollars.
Speaker 1: Is that just an ads, Terry, Uh No, that's a
Speaker 1: portion of that's been in ads and direct voter contact.
Speaker 1: But that's our total spend for the cycle counting twenty
Speaker 1: twenty one and twenty twenty two. But you know, it's
Speaker 1: it's really interesting because well, we spent you know, that
Speaker 1: much in this cycle the economic groups and the the
Speaker 1: crime groups and all that the most the vast majority
Speaker 1: of spending has been on on those top issues. It's
Speaker 1: it's really interesting. We have a long night ahead of us,
Speaker 1: where we still have a lot more results to see.
Speaker 1: We still have Arizona to come in in Nevada, but
Speaker 1: you know, it's it's looking like it's not such a
Speaker 1: big red wave as a lot of people predicted. Yeah,
Speaker 1: that's what we wanted to ask you about that. Yeah,
Speaker 1: talk talk us through Arizona here, because you know, what
Speaker 1: what what's your understanding of what's in so far and
Speaker 1: what's still outstanding when it comes to both the you know,
Speaker 1: the the Carry Lake Race and the and the Blake
Speaker 1: Masters Mark Mark Kelly Race. Let me pulled up real quick.
Speaker 1: I was going through it before I was talking with
Speaker 1: you guys. So it looks like, you know, about half
Speaker 1: the votes are counted. Lake is still she's under about
Speaker 1: thirteen points with fifty four percent to go. Look, we
Speaker 1: still have a lot to still count and you know,
Speaker 1: we'll see what happens. But we don't know, We don't
Speaker 1: know exactly what happened here. It's obviously not great for Republicans.
Speaker 1: I know that we were really hoping for a much
Speaker 1: bigger night here. But we'll see. We're the good thing
Speaker 1: about elections that they're clarifying, Right, it's a moment where
Speaker 1: you get to see where the American people actually are.
Speaker 1: They cast their votes, they tell you what they want,
Speaker 1: who they don't want in office, and you have to
Speaker 1: reassess things. And ultimately, we had a really big winner tonight,
Speaker 1: and I think that that's Ronda Santis. He won Florida
Speaker 1: as it stands right now by twenty points. That's a
Speaker 1: big deal. And so we have to ask ourselves why
Speaker 1: did Ronda Santis win in Florida, which he barely won
Speaker 1: in twenty eighteen, right he wanted by I think less
Speaker 1: than a percentage point in twenty eighteen, But now he's
Speaker 1: won by twenty points. Why did that happen? And why
Speaker 1: are Republicans now still floundering? I would argue that Republicans
Speaker 1: still lack a real message, a real vision that they
Speaker 1: presented the American people. It was an anti Biden message,
Speaker 1: it was an anti progressive message, but it was not
Speaker 1: an inspirational message. They did not cast a bold vision
Speaker 1: that showed Americans where they wanted to take the country.
Speaker 1: And ultimately, I think until they give that vision where
Speaker 1: they want to take the country, voters are going to
Speaker 1: not be motivated to vote for them. And I want
Speaker 1: to talk to you about Nevadaterrey because we spent a
Speaker 1: bit there, But before we get to that, I actually
Speaker 1: want to tease out maybe this distinction. That's interesting because
Speaker 1: going into this for the last week or so, the
Speaker 1: legacy media was talking a lot about and we talked
Speaker 1: about it frankly, about how Democrats had not sort of
Speaker 1: come to the right argument when it comes to the economy.
Speaker 1: They did not spend as much on all of these
Speaker 1: other issues as they did on abortion all of the
Speaker 1: other issues combined. Yes, they spent ads enough ad money
Speaker 1: on to overcome how much they spent on abortion, but
Speaker 1: they like they spent way more on abortion than any
Speaker 1: other single issue. Now, I think there's an argument that
Speaker 1: was about turnout, But people like to talk about how
Speaker 1: Democrats this election were obsessed with the culture war and
Speaker 1: that hurt them. I actually don't know that that's going
Speaker 1: to be the case, because midterm elections are about turnout,
Speaker 1: and abortions can motivate the Democratic base. On the flip side,
Speaker 1: Terry tell us about the culture war type ads that
Speaker 1: you guys at American Principles Project have been running, because
Speaker 1: I think personally they're sort of the smart approach the
Speaker 1: smart conservative approach to some of these big questions that frankly,
Speaker 1: you know, the RNC itself should have been on top
Speaker 1: of ten years ago, let alone five years ago. And
Speaker 1: you guys are running on now, what are some of
Speaker 1: the issues that you guys highlighted and do you still
Speaker 1: feel like they could be really consequential as the numbers
Speaker 1: come in. Yeah, So, look, the big things that we
Speaker 1: focused on was protecting children, right, protecting children from gender
Speaker 1: transitions that are being pushed on them by big pharmaceutical
Speaker 1: companies and transgender activists, but also protecting children from being
Speaker 1: sexualized by pornographic materian schools like the book Genderqueer, which
Speaker 1: is a graphic novel that depicts sex between minors, among
Speaker 1: other things, and it freaked out the parents in Dearborn Michigan.
Speaker 1: Even CARE got behind some of those parents that were
Speaker 1: overwhelmingly Muslim in Dearborn Michigan. And again, CARE is not
Speaker 1: a typically a conservative organization on politics American politics. But sorry,
Speaker 1: Terry interrupted you. No, no, no, it's okay. You made
Speaker 1: a very good point. I think it's important to remember
Speaker 1: that just a year ago, right in Virginia in twenty
Speaker 1: twenty one, when the election was about parental rights and education,
Speaker 1: which that is what that election was about. We won handily, right,
Speaker 1: but then Republicans juked that message and for the large part,
Speaker 1: gave up on it and didn't really campaign on it
Speaker 1: and instead focused on Joe Biden's inflation, Joe Biden's economy,
Speaker 1: the crime sprees that are going across the country. That's
Speaker 1: when they began to lose. And so we focused on
Speaker 1: the issues that we knew that Americans were in support
Speaker 1: of a Republican or a conservative message on, which is
Speaker 1: protecting kids from pornography in their own schools, from being sexualized,
Speaker 1: from being groomed, and also from exploitative section procedures that
Speaker 1: you know, doctors and surgeons and pharmaceutic companies are making
Speaker 1: lots of money off of our kids off of so
Speaker 1: you know, those were winning issues. We could produce ads
Speaker 1: with experts like Miriam Grossman, who's a pediatric psychiatrist that's
Speaker 1: been doing this for decades. We told stories from a
Speaker 1: mother in California, Abby Martinez, who you know, lost her
Speaker 1: daughter to transgenderism, right had the daughter ripped from the home.
Speaker 1: The daughter ended up going on to cross sex hormones
Speaker 1: while on foster care, and then shortly after that took
Speaker 1: her life. We were telling persuasive stories on issues that
Speaker 1: we knew the American people were way in a disagreement
Speaker 1: with the Democratic policies. It was really tough to get
Speaker 1: Republicans on side with these. But what we're seeing is
Speaker 1: that the Republicans who really went on offense on these issues,
Speaker 1: like JD Vans, like Rond De Santis, they're winning their
Speaker 1: elections handily. They're getting called very early. And the ones
Speaker 1: that didn't, that didn't go on offense, they're the ones
Speaker 1: that are behind right now. Do you know why do
Speaker 1: you think? You know? If you think that message resident?
Speaker 1: Do you think that Blake Masters didn't do enough of that?
Speaker 1: Do you think Kerry Lake didn't do enough of that?
Speaker 1: Do you think Baldoke didn't do enough of it? Yeah? No,
Speaker 1: look I yeah, no. Oz definitely shied away from all
Speaker 1: of the social issues. Right. I think that Oz was
Speaker 1: an exceptionally poor candidate in Pennsylvania. I think if you
Speaker 1: had any other candidate in that race, it would have
Speaker 1: been locked up at the moment that debate happened with
Speaker 1: John Fetterman, where it was clear that he has suffered
Speaker 1: severe brain trauma and brain damage. But Bulldog did not
Speaker 1: go into or lean into the social issues. Look, we
Speaker 1: still have to see the results come in fully from Arizona.
Speaker 1: That race isn't over yet, and we obviously know that
Speaker 1: there were you know, major problems with delays and problems
Speaker 1: with the election machines and how they were being counted.
Speaker 1: So look, we saw the weight there. But at the
Speaker 1: end of the day, Ron DeSantis I think is the
Speaker 1: big winner today. I mean he's the one that stands
Speaker 1: out as the biggest winner, not just by like my
Speaker 1: own judgment, but literally by the margins that he's won
Speaker 1: his race by. He governed very boldly. He was very
Speaker 1: clear about what he wanted to do and where he
Speaker 1: wanted to take Floridians, And I think ultimately that's the
Speaker 1: big message is that if you want to win your
Speaker 1: campaign's elections, you have to be very clear with what
Speaker 1: you're going to do while in office. And I think
Speaker 1: that of all the candidates that were running the cycle,
Speaker 1: Ron DeSantis was the most clear and painted the biggest
Speaker 1: vision and the clearest vision for what he was going
Speaker 1: to do for voters. So Terry, before before we let
Speaker 1: you go, as of right, now, I imagine you've been
Speaker 1: monitoring the race in Nevada. I mean, I know you've
Speaker 1: been monitoring the race in Nevada because you have money
Speaker 1: on the line there. But what can people expect? There
Speaker 1: was this potential Republican fantasy that Catherine Cortes Maasso might
Speaker 1: go down, and that's that has not been ruled out
Speaker 1: as of right now. What are you looking at in Nevada?
Speaker 1: And you know what were you looking at over the
Speaker 1: course of the past week as well well. Obviously Clark
Speaker 1: County is the most important part of that state. It's
Speaker 1: where the vast majority of the population of best majority
Speaker 1: of voters live. It's going to come down to where
Speaker 1: the early vote was and what the turnout was with that,
Speaker 1: and then what election day turnout was. All day long,
Speaker 1: I was paying attention to John Ralston and what he
Speaker 1: was reported from what he was seeing as election day turnout,
Speaker 1: and frankly, he was pretty dire about this. But ultimately,
Speaker 1: I think what this all comes down to is Democrats
Speaker 1: really have built a turnout machine. Whether you like it
Speaker 1: or not, they do know how to turn out their
Speaker 1: voters and get them to the polls. And I don't
Speaker 1: think Republicans have built anything close to what the Democrats
Speaker 1: have built, and apparently it's effective and it's a very,
Speaker 1: very instrumental in staving off losses. The thing that's frustrating
Speaker 1: for me is you have all of these dynamics in
Speaker 1: a midterm cycle. Right. You have literally a senile president
Speaker 1: who can't put two sentences together. You have record high inflation,
Speaker 1: the economy is terrible for one case, and our stock
Speaker 1: our portfolios are all down. Things aren't that great in
Speaker 1: this country. How the hell did Republicans manage to not
Speaker 1: get a massive Republican wave? I don't know. I think
Speaker 1: ultimately they didn't pas cast a big vision, But I
Speaker 1: also don't think that they've built any type of machine
Speaker 1: that's competitive, competitive with what the Democrats have built. So look, ultimately, this,
Speaker 1: like I said earlier, this is a clarification moment for
Speaker 1: the Republican Party for America where this nation stands, and
Speaker 1: we're gonna have to reassess things going forward. But it's
Speaker 1: still we have a long night ahead of us, for sure. Terry,
Speaker 1: last question, do you think that maybe raging the culture
Speaker 1: war actually backfired on Republicans this time and that that
Speaker 1: if to your point, that the economy is what people
Speaker 1: are actually interested in that they don't want to actually hear,
Speaker 1: you know about all this the culture war stuff. You know,
Speaker 1: I disagree with that. I don't think that, you know,
Speaker 1: opposing sex changes for minors or opposing giving children pornography
Speaker 1: and schools is going to create any type of backlash.
Speaker 1: It's just it doesn't make any sense. And frankly, if
Speaker 1: that is the case, if opposing those two issues is
Speaker 1: going to cause you to lose elections, then America is
Speaker 1: not salvageable in a lot of ways, right. I mean,
Speaker 1: like you have a nation where little children are being given,
Speaker 1: you know, being sexualized in schools and being given section changes, Like,
Speaker 1: how are those people going to vote going up? They're
Speaker 1: definitely not gonna be voting for tax cuts for billionaires
Speaker 1: and major corporations in the future, I'll tell you that.
Speaker 1: But ultimately, I think that what this is is it's
Speaker 1: a lack of leadership in the Republican Party. I think,
Speaker 1: you know, they Kevin McCarthy right in the last few
Speaker 1: weeks of the election, what's he talking about entitlement reform?
Speaker 1: That was not it was just not what this election
Speaker 1: was about. He put gasoline on the fire right. So
Speaker 1: we're talking about, you know, entitlement reform, we're talking about
Speaker 1: cutting spending. I get it, But the economy was on
Speaker 1: the line, inflation was on the line. You had to
Speaker 1: have a real, UH policy proposal that would address the
Speaker 1: major concerns of the American people. And I just don't
Speaker 1: think Republicans met those those concerns. They just thought that
Speaker 1: they would be good enough and and and perform well
Speaker 1: enough just by saying that they weren't show Biden that's
Speaker 1: obviously not the case. Terry. Thanks thanks for your time.
Speaker 1: Appreciate it. Go back to a couple more more updates Terry,
Speaker 1: the American Priscals Project. Thank you so much. Thank you
Speaker 1: so much, Terry. So there was some hope Republicans had
Speaker 1: some hope that PAULA. Page might be competitive. That's yeah,
Speaker 1: he's behind Janet Mills by nine points right now, only
Speaker 1: fifty eight percent in UH. So you know, I need
Speaker 1: not over yet, but it's not not panning out the way. Also, Terry,
Speaker 1: when Terry was the substance aside, when Terry was saying
Speaker 1: that maybe the country's not salvageable, that actually felt that
Speaker 1: sounded to me like the way that some progressives sound
Speaker 1: yes when elections don't go their way well yeah, which
Speaker 1: which is a real sign of how frustrating and how
Speaker 1: disappointing this is to someone the right Well, and I
Speaker 1: think that's the reason we're done with this. I'm going
Speaker 1: to Canada. So Terry is like a graspros conservative activist
Speaker 1: that most of the legacy will not talk to, and
Speaker 1: if they do it's as a freak show, but as
Speaker 1: somebody who's actually very influential has put a lot of
Speaker 1: money into these Republican races in swing states like Nevada, Michigan, Wisconsin,
Speaker 1: where Ron Johnson's actually doing all right as of right now.
Speaker 1: And so it's important, I think, to e gauge the
Speaker 1: temperature of folks that are putting the money right there,
Speaker 1: because that's I think a pretty good indicator of what
Speaker 1: a JD Vance would be looking at on an agenda
Speaker 1: come January, what the battle for Mitch McConnell versus Rick
Speaker 1: Scott looks like come January, and what happens with Blake Masters.
Speaker 1: We saw Terry was wearing a Blake Master's teach shirt.
Speaker 1: Has definitely been involved in that race, and Republicans really
Speaker 1: thought that taking offense. Kerrie Lake multiple times said you know,
Speaker 1: when reporters would ask her about abortions, she said, no, no,
Speaker 1: you need to ask Democrats this question about what restrictions
Speaker 1: they support on abortion. And Republicans had a lot of
Speaker 1: I don't know what the right word is, enthusiasm or
Speaker 1: optimism that some of these candidates who were flipping the
Speaker 1: script in maybe a Trumpian way, and we're willing to
Speaker 1: lean into the culture war in a way that Glenn
Speaker 1: Youngkin pulled off last year in Virginia, that that would
Speaker 1: be the key to a tsunami, not just to a
Speaker 1: good night, but to a tsunami. And so I think
Speaker 1: what we're getting from that interview is that the rights
Speaker 1: grass roots, and Terry's a good gauge of that, the
Speaker 1: rights roots is gonna want more. They're gonna want pedal
Speaker 1: to the metal, as opposed to saying like the Republican
Speaker 1: autopsy in twenty twelve, which was let's back off, let's
Speaker 1: back off of all of these social and cultural issues.
Speaker 1: This was the ranks previous RNC put out the twenty
Speaker 1: twelve autopsy after Romney lost and said we will never
Speaker 1: be winning Hispanic voters if we continue on this track,
Speaker 1: we will never be winning. The sort of emerging Democratic
Speaker 1: coalition is going to be straight in one direction. But
Speaker 1: that you know, it seems like what we're seeing is
Speaker 1: not more of that, but the opposite from the conservative grossrooms. Yeah,
Speaker 1: and instead, in Kansas right now, Laura Kelly, the Democrat,
Speaker 1: is ahead in her re election bid with eighty eight
Speaker 1: percent of the votes in. She's up by four point
Speaker 1: two points. She was considered to be someone who had
Speaker 1: a shot, a good shot at reelection. It wouldn't be
Speaker 1: a total shock that she wins, but for people who
Speaker 1: were from outside of Kansas and went, wait a minute,
Speaker 1: a Democrat is winning a reelection in Kansas. Thought this
Speaker 1: was going to be a I thought there's gonna be
Speaker 1: a red wave. Gretchen Whitmer still up at this point
Speaker 1: by three point four points with forty percent in. Yeah,
Speaker 1: that has narrowed a good bit. What was she up before?
Speaker 1: So you're wayne, Wayne County has eight percent in. Wayne
Speaker 1: County only has eight percent in at this point. So no,
Speaker 1: that's that's a So Gretchen Whitmer was a and is
Speaker 1: I think continues to be a real like if we're
Speaker 1: in a tsunami, That's a good pick up for Republicans
Speaker 1: because Tudor Dixon, from their perspective, ran a good campaign,
Speaker 1: especially in the home stretch. And Gretchen Whitmer I think
Speaker 1: is a bad candidate. I think she really botched her
Speaker 1: COVID response. I think she's been similar to Kathy Hokeel
Speaker 1: and being dismissive of parents' concerns and the same way
Speaker 1: that Hochel has been dismissive of concerns about crime. But
Speaker 1: what but she's still up right now, right there, there
Speaker 1: are a lot of votes that are remaining right Hokel
Speaker 1: was seventy seven percent in still up, is up by
Speaker 1: nine points. Tough to see how Zelden makes that up.
Speaker 1: And another reach that republic Republicans were going for was
Speaker 1: in New Mexico, Michelle Leuhan Grisham was seen as vulnerable,
Speaker 1: like they thought that maybe they could knock her, knock
Speaker 1: her out in a real red wave. A way, how
Speaker 1: many we got in about half a million votes in
Speaker 1: seventy percent of the votes counted. She's up by about
Speaker 1: seven points so far, could still lose. But again, like
Speaker 1: this is where Democrats would prefer to be rather than
Speaker 1: hoping that they can come back. All right, we're getting
Speaker 1: some numbers from Oregon. Yes, this is the race where
Speaker 1: Betsy Johnson, who is the independent Democrat bankrolled by the
Speaker 1: Nike CEO. What a political system. Well this is just wonderful.
Speaker 1: Like Bessy Johnson. By the way, Nike itself bankrolled by China,
Speaker 1: and so Betsy Johnson herself, if she decides to run
Speaker 1: as a third party candidate, it's free country to do
Speaker 1: what you want. She's going to get one or two percent.
Speaker 1: But then a billionaire is like, you know what, I
Speaker 1: think this would be funny and just bankrolls her entire
Speaker 1: campaign and then becomes a credible one. She's doing worse
Speaker 1: so far, at least then Republicans that hope she's at
Speaker 1: nine point. She's at nine percent of the vote, but
Speaker 1: at very close race with fewer than half the votes in,
Speaker 1: just under half the votes in you have the Democrat
Speaker 1: over the Republican by one point. You know, this is
Speaker 1: one This is one that that I think Republicans correct
Speaker 1: me if I'm wrong here, would really love to win
Speaker 1: to show that like Antifa and the Wolkesters out in Oregon,
Speaker 1: you know, really got their got their come up and yeah,
Speaker 1: I mean, and let's look at this right now, the
Speaker 1: Oregon governor's race. It's another one like Gretchen Whitmer, but
Speaker 1: way even more dramatic than Gretcha Whitmer. That Republicans said,
Speaker 1: if if these polls are correct, because there was a
Speaker 1: shocking level of closeness between Kotech and Dresen in the
Speaker 1: remaining days of the race for Oregan's governorship right now
Speaker 1: with forty seven percent of the votes in Oregon has
Speaker 1: not had a Republican governor, mind you, since the nineteen eighties.
Speaker 1: That's forty five point five percent to forty four point
Speaker 1: six percent, So that's within a percentage point in freaking Oregon,
Speaker 1: and we don't know if that stands. I think it's
Speaker 1: it's very possible Dreson ends up losing that by a
Speaker 1: few points. And if that's the case, I mean, I
Speaker 1: think Republicans will still feel okay about it. But if
Speaker 1: Drayson pulls that off, whatever happens in Pennsylvania gets sort
Speaker 1: of counterbalanced by that, and the downstream implications for that are, well,
Speaker 1: then what happens to Mitch McConnell and are the you know,
Speaker 1: do you then need to listen more to the Terry
Speaker 1: Shillings of the world. Do you need to listen? Uh,
Speaker 1: you know, less this becomes a question like, is there
Speaker 1: a real pickup opportunity for Democrats if you have the
Speaker 1: right candidate. And I don't know, I don't have a
Speaker 1: good answer to that. But in Oregon it's still not
Speaker 1: clear cut, and there's no universe in which we should
Speaker 1: be saying. In Oregon it's still a clear cut at
Speaker 1: this point, and so we'll see again. I think it's
Speaker 1: still POSSI that, uh, Jason Lews is probably more likely
Speaker 1: than not. We don't know. It's hard to say, but
Speaker 1: I think that's worth looking at. Uh. Back on back
Speaker 1: in the Senate with Fetterman and Oz Fetterman, with more
Speaker 1: than ninety five percent of the votes in in Erie County,
Speaker 1: has beaten doctor Oz up there fifty three to forty four.
Speaker 1: What's that tell you? I mean this, this shouldn't necessarily
Speaker 1: this shouldn't be Democratic country. Up. This is the very
Speaker 1: northwest tip of the state. This is a very rural area,
Speaker 1: you know, for Trump area. Let's see how did how
Speaker 1: did Trump? Let's see how did Trump vote Erie County?
Speaker 1: Because I think that's the real story here is is
Speaker 1: if Oz is dramatically underperforming Trump. You're getting a good
Speaker 1: kind of answer to this question because again you look
Speaker 1: at DeSantis over performing Trump. But so far there's no
Speaker 1: real clear cut narrative about some of those other candidates. JD.
Speaker 1: Vance did fairly well. But did Erie County go for Biden?
Speaker 1: It looks like it looks like this was a Clinton
Speaker 1: to Trump hol on, let me say so. The other
Speaker 1: thing I'll say is Wisconsin right now. So it was
Speaker 1: sixty eight So the final unofficial results Biden sixty eight thousand,
Speaker 1: Trump sixty six thousand, So it's very tight. And Trump
Speaker 1: had beaten Hillary in twenty sixteen in Erie County and
Speaker 1: so now you but now you have Fetterman winning this
Speaker 1: by twelve thousand. So listen to this. All right. This
Speaker 1: is from Vox, and I want to pick up on
Speaker 1: something that Crystal said last hour, which was really real.
Speaker 1: I thought it was really interesting about and you were
Speaker 1: talking about this as well, just sort of whether Republicans
Speaker 1: and we read the Third Way data about how Republicans
Speaker 1: were generally more trusted on the economy and inflation than Democrats,
Speaker 1: and most people are saying that they they think if
Speaker 1: democrats control Congress, inflation will get worse. That's from the
Speaker 1: Third Way survey that came out in the last week.
Speaker 1: Here from Vox, Republicans have spent one hundred and fifty
Speaker 1: seven million dollars on crime related ads at the national
Speaker 1: level compared to one hundred and five million on the
Speaker 1: economy and inflation, according to data from the ad analysis
Speaker 1: firm Impact ad Impact. So that's one hundred and fifty
Speaker 1: seven million on crime and then one hundred and five
Speaker 1: million on the economy and inflation. Now, Vox continues, the
Speaker 1: breakdown is even starker in the Pennsylvania Senate race, where
Speaker 1: Republicans have spent nearly twelve million dollars on crime ads
Speaker 1: compared to two point five million on the economy and inflation.
Speaker 1: Where this race stands right now, is a potential Fetterman win. Yeah,
Speaker 1: is it? Because so Hillary very narrowly won Erie Counting.
Speaker 1: By the way, I just s against Trump, Biden very
Speaker 1: narrowly wanted. He's and is crushing os in Erie County.
Speaker 1: Another Fetterman person says, quote, we feel fucking good, okay,
Speaker 1: and that they said that to you. Yeah, all right,
Speaker 1: So you have a story from Fetterman saying we feel
Speaker 1: fucking good, which is a big deal right now at
Speaker 1: eleven fifty two, because if the red tsunami prediction was
Speaker 1: panning out right now, if the red wave prediction was
Speaker 1: panning out right now, you just probably wouldn't see that.
Speaker 1: They would not be feeling good. They would not be
Speaker 1: feeling so if we again, like you could still see
Speaker 1: certain places Republicans doing better than people think. We don't
Speaker 1: know what's gonna happen in Arizona. We don't know what's
Speaker 1: gonna happen in Nevada, we don't know what's gonna happen
Speaker 1: in Oregon. That is all very true, But what is
Speaker 1: not true is that we're in some giant wave. And Ryan,
Speaker 1: I want to ask that question to you, did Republicans
Speaker 1: talk too much about crime? Because the conventional Belwegh wisdom
Speaker 1: going into tonight was the Republicans that Democrats talk too
Speaker 1: little about crime. I think I think this is and
Speaker 1: this is going back to something that I've been thinking
Speaker 1: about more that a lot of what we do is
Speaker 1: pointless because you can only shape reality so much. And
Speaker 1: that goes that's messaging, that's media, that's social media, and
Speaker 1: then there is also reality. Now you can shape, you
Speaker 1: can create vibes, you can, you can, you can indeed
Speaker 1: kind of shape vibes, create media, narratives. Media and arrators
Speaker 1: can then you know, work downstream and then affect the
Speaker 1: way that people make decisions. So it's all of these
Speaker 1: things are related, but we talk in the media as
Speaker 1: if that's all that matters. And the reason we talk
Speaker 1: about that is because that's what we can look at.
Speaker 1: It's like that famous joke about the guy who's looking
Speaker 1: the drunken losses keys and is looking underneath the lamppost,
Speaker 1: like is this where he lost He's like, no, I
Speaker 1: lost it on the other side of the street. But
Speaker 1: this is where the light is. And so we look
Speaker 1: where the light is, and the light is. What are
Speaker 1: democrats saying? What are Republicans saying? What are the fundamentals?
Speaker 1: So that's that's where we get to reality when we
Speaker 1: start to talk about fundamentals, and that's important. You know,
Speaker 1: the first midterm of a presidential blah blah blah. Everybody
Speaker 1: knows those fundamentals. But the material reality of two things
Speaker 1: one dobs like democrats talking about not talking about it
Speaker 1: doesn't change the fact that a right that existed for
Speaker 1: fifty years that had widespread support depending on you know,
Speaker 1: depending on how you pull, it was taken away. People
Speaker 1: voted in special elections throughout the summer in ways that
Speaker 1: defied the polls. They voted in Kansas in ways that
Speaker 1: defied the polls. Are voting in Kentucky tonight in the
Speaker 1: ways that defied the polls. And what people talk about
Speaker 1: is important. But people are their own individual individuals moving
Speaker 1: through this world, and they know that the Supreme Court
Speaker 1: overturned Roe v. Wade. They also know that jobs are
Speaker 1: increasing that if they get fired they can probably get
Speaker 1: another job. Although real wages are pretty significant, real wages
Speaker 1: are either flat or up depending If you're a lower
Speaker 1: wage worker, your wages are up. If you're a higher
Speaker 1: wage worker, they're not. If you've jumped, if you've switched jobs,
Speaker 1: your wages are significantly up. But on average, real wages
Speaker 1: are up for the lowest income workers, but down because
Speaker 1: of inflation for the median. You can, but you have
Speaker 1: more power at work, and you can get a job
Speaker 1: if you get fired. People forget the media, forgets how
Speaker 1: much it sucks when unemployment is up at five, six, seven,
Speaker 1: eight nine percent. Absolutely, but maybe real people don't forget
Speaker 1: that and are like, yes, I hate inflation, but I
Speaker 1: like that there are jobs. I like that I have
Speaker 1: more power at work, and I don't necessarily blame Democrats
Speaker 1: only for inflation because Joe Biden just came in. So
Speaker 1: maybe we maybe all the talking about messaging is a
Speaker 1: little bit much, and that actually, like it didn't matter
Speaker 1: that people do not like that Roe v. Wade was overturned.
Speaker 1: People want to People want to come out and vote
Speaker 1: because now for once people can actually, you know, it
Speaker 1: make a difference voting on that. Now here's here's you know,
Speaker 1: here's where they say democracy is on the ballot. Except
Speaker 1: the result of this election, in which the country I
Speaker 1: think pretty thoroughly demonstrated that it supports abortion rights. The
Speaker 1: result is not going to be that the country then
Speaker 1: gets abortion rights back. So democracy might be on the ballot.
Speaker 1: We've got a weird democracy. Meanwhile, and I mentioned this earlier,
Speaker 1: We're probably going to get a giant debate over cutting
Speaker 1: social security and medic here from Biden and House Republicans.
Speaker 1: Nobody ran on that, nobody voted for it. So what
Speaker 1: kind of democracy is that? I actually think this probably
Speaker 1: blunts any discussion of that because you noticed Kevin McCarthy
Speaker 1: only started talking about that, as as Terry pointed out,
Speaker 1: only started talking about that when Republicans really felt like
Speaker 1: they had the win at their backs, and it was like, hey,
Speaker 1: now we can sort of feel good enough, we're going
Speaker 1: to start talking about X, Y and Z. And that's
Speaker 1: that's just not what happened, you know. It's it's like that.
Speaker 1: I don't know. I think this probably feels like a
Speaker 1: rebuke to Republicans who wanted to talk about social security,
Speaker 1: it wanted to talk about entitlements in general. Now that
Speaker 1: remains to be seen, but another slap in the face
Speaker 1: to this, the red title Wave narrative would be looking
Speaker 1: at New York. New York was a pick up that
Speaker 1: felt like tsunami territory. It felt like really tsunami territory.
Speaker 1: Because right here I have the r CDP average. As
Speaker 1: yesterday you had Hokeel up in general. I mean, Hockel
Speaker 1: was was pretty well. Pokel was up seven in the
Speaker 1: RCPA average as of yesterday, and as of right now,
Speaker 1: Hokel is perhaps this right here, Hokel is uh fifty
Speaker 1: four point to Zeldon's forty five point eight percent in
Speaker 1: the New York governor race. That's was seventy nine percent reporting.
Speaker 1: That looks like we're how Sean Patrick doing. I think
Speaker 1: he's not. Oh, he's still down by six points. D
Speaker 1: Triple C chair down by six percentage points. Tell us
Speaker 1: about meaning Republican, tell us more about that. I mean
Speaker 1: so yes. So for people that didn't follow this, So
Speaker 1: Sean Patrick Maloney is the chair chair of the D
Speaker 1: Triple C, which runs the House campaign arm. He used
Speaker 1: to be in district what eighteen or seventeen what, it
Speaker 1: doesn't matter. He would he was in a district to
Speaker 1: the west. A Republican in Pittsburgh redrew all of New
Speaker 1: York's districts. The weirdest thing, Like there's all sorts of
Speaker 1: fun conspiracy theories if you'd go down the rabbit hole
Speaker 1: about what role the Cuomo Worlds was and payback and
Speaker 1: all this nonsense. But anyway, so that in the middle
Speaker 1: of the races, they redraw all of New York's congressional districts. Immediately,
Speaker 1: Sean Patrick Maloney, who's the chair of the Teacherble C,
Speaker 1: announces he's leaving the district he's in, which is which
Speaker 1: was like a deep split district basically to jump into
Speaker 1: a district that's more favorable for him. Only problem it
Speaker 1: was currently occupied by an incumbent Democrat mondere Jones. Is
Speaker 1: that puts mondere Jones in this really difficult situation. Does
Speaker 1: he want to run a primary against the D Triple
Speaker 1: C chair if he wins, what kind of help is
Speaker 1: he going to get from thed Triple CE in the
Speaker 1: general or is he going to find another district run
Speaker 1: and or is he he didn't have to run, or
Speaker 1: is he gonna, you know, step down and go work
Speaker 1: with the DOJ for a couple of years and then
Speaker 1: come back. So he looked at Jamal Bowman's district, which
Speaker 1: was just just to the south. His team did polling
Speaker 1: of that district. Then we're stunned to find how popular
Speaker 1: Jamal Bowman was. Paul Bowman ended up winning his primary
Speaker 1: and a landside went one tonight in a landside, Richie
Speaker 1: Torres sent out a signal, you don't don't come up,
Speaker 1: don't don't come over here, Jamal Bowman yep. So so
Speaker 1: then he looks around. He goes to Manhattan and he
Speaker 1: runs in New York's tenth district, which represents Manhattan. So
Speaker 1: Mande Jones loses there, so he's heading out of Congress.
Speaker 1: Also that Jean Patrick Maloney can get an easier seat,
Speaker 1: and now he's it looks like he's losing that man
Speaker 1: maybe so maybe now mandere Jones goes back to that
Speaker 1: district and runs in twenty twenty four. Right, So, Ryan,
Speaker 1: how do you explain that you wanted to represent Manhattan? Oh?
Speaker 1: Good God? So Ryan and I could keep going here
Speaker 1: all night. Actually we would if not, so Sager, until
Speaker 1: Saga rolled in. Yeah, Soccer would come in and he
Speaker 1: would have water, and he'd be looking up at the
Speaker 1: sun and have all the energy in the world. And
Speaker 1: and and Ryan and I woke up this morning and
Speaker 1: chose the violence in terms of our liquids. Yeah, heady
Speaker 1: topper smuggled in from Vermont. That's right, and it will.
Speaker 1: My dad texted, he said, stop cursing. I'm just quoting
Speaker 1: your dad's I'm just quoting what people are telling me. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I'm not gonna I'm not gonna suppress. Why would you
Speaker 1: dad shoot the messengers as a sensor? Yeah, tell them, Yeah, no,
Speaker 1: I I this is not this is not water. It's
Speaker 1: it's well, it's it's wine. But all that said, we
Speaker 1: could keep going here, but the team needs to get
Speaker 1: up by point, right by point. The crew has to
Speaker 1: get up for tomorrow. Yeah, right, the crew has so
Speaker 1: do you guys. You guys probably work tomorrow, but Soccer
Speaker 1: and Crystal are coming in early to get results out
Speaker 1: to you guys right away. And frankly, I think that
Speaker 1: makes the most sense because Philadelphia right now announced just
Speaker 1: in the last couple of days that it was going
Speaker 1: to be really hard for them to get any vote
Speaker 1: clarity on what happened in photo Republicans the well, but
Speaker 1: Republicans sue them because of the mass influx of mail
Speaker 1: and bouts, which I forgot to say earlier when you
Speaker 1: were making that point there we are seeing historically like
Speaker 1: unprecedented levels of mail in ballots. Still, people like to vote.
Speaker 1: People like to vote. So that said, I actually think
Speaker 1: that makes a lot of sense because there's only so
Speaker 1: much we can do. We can't talk about Rick Caruso
Speaker 1: in the LA Mayor's race, which is if Republicans want
Speaker 1: to feel good about a so called realignment, the message
Speaker 1: might not be as we're wrapping up right now, Ryan,
Speaker 1: the message Republicans I think wanted to take from this
Speaker 1: was a MAGA message, was that the realignment was going
Speaker 1: to come on the back of the Maga movement, And
Speaker 1: the message that they might be getting, in fact, is
Speaker 1: that the realignment that's going to help them with Hispanic voters,
Speaker 1: with Cuban voters and Mexican voters, with Black voters and
Speaker 1: Cuban voters might not be a Maga message, but might
Speaker 1: be something actually that is completely different, that is independent
Speaker 1: in its feeling and not tied specifically to Donald Trump,
Speaker 1: who is his flirting with whether or not he would
Speaker 1: run in the last few days felt like a potential
Speaker 1: turnout mechanism for Republicans because he's popular with some, you know,
Speaker 1: really hardcore trunk of like thirty percent of the base
Speaker 1: that love Donald Trump, and there are a lot of
Speaker 1: Trump voters who love Donald Trump more than a Republican party.
Speaker 1: I think it's even more than half if you look
Speaker 1: at the numbers. But whether or not that translates into
Speaker 1: electoral victories outside of Republican strongholds means Republicans might need
Speaker 1: more Glenn youngkins than they do Maga cannon. Although Mayra
Speaker 1: Flores was at Glenn Young Canada, she was one of
Speaker 1: your Bellwethers. So update on that ninety two percent of
Speaker 1: the votes in and she's down by nine. I was
Speaker 1: actually going to say the opposite. She's she's not a
Speaker 1: Glen Yunkin candidate. She's a maga candidate. She's pretty hard maga.
Speaker 1: She she's very much Trump candidate. And Lauren Bobert, by
Speaker 1: the way, it might be headed to a surprise loss
Speaker 1: in Colorado, which nobody saw coming a very magic candidate.
Speaker 1: She's still down for. She's down for. Okay, Times calls
Speaker 1: her likely Republican. But she's still down for with seventy
Speaker 1: five percent, So the margin is narrowing. Okay, so that
Speaker 1: could easily flip. But if she's in a close race,
Speaker 1: I mean, that could still prove the point. We don't
Speaker 1: know yet. And again that's why Sager Crysler coenim right
Speaker 1: and early. But the point remains, I'll stop looking. Yeah,
Speaker 1: that's a good idea. The point remains that like this
Speaker 1: could be going in a direction that's like okay for
Speaker 1: Republicans and okay for Democrats, and okay for Democrats. It's
Speaker 1: better than expected for Democrats and okay for Republicans. Is
Speaker 1: worse than expected for Republicans if you really need to
Speaker 1: fix I've been doing a live chat which I've been
Speaker 1: neglecting on my substack, which is called called bad News.
Speaker 1: Tell us what Ken did? Oh yeah, so my substack
Speaker 1: is called bad News. Ken's I forget what his is called,
Speaker 1: but probably just Ken Clippenstein. So I's tried out this
Speaker 1: chat functions live chat that's going on right now, and
Speaker 1: Ken kept jumping in there and posting links to his
Speaker 1: own newsletter in my live chat, which is great. Everybody
Speaker 1: sign up for Ken clippin Stein's newsletter. I'm all for that. Yeah.
Speaker 1: So as I head out of here, I'll go back
Speaker 1: into that live chat. That's bad News on substack. Emily,
Speaker 1: it's been it's been fun. And I guess we will
Speaker 1: see you. We'll see you on Thursday and here you
Speaker 1: guys will see Soger and Crystal tomorrow morning. That's right.
Speaker 1: You have full breaking points coverage all week because it's
Speaker 1: election week obviously. And Crystal ended there sort of part
Speaker 1: of the broadcast tonight just by thanking premium subscribers. Yeah,
Speaker 1: the crew was telling us that a bunch of subscriptions
Speaker 1: were coming in tonight. That's what makes this possible. That's
Speaker 1: what makes having people on the road possible. That's what
Speaker 1: makes bringing Status Kup and Jordan Charrisan's reporters from the
Speaker 1: ground in. So thank you for doing that. Keep those
Speaker 1: subscriptions coming in so we can keep growing. So we've
Speaker 1: got a presidential election coming up. All we can say
Speaker 1: is thank you, We appreciate it so much, and Soccer
Speaker 1: and Crystal will be back here with you all tomorrow morning.
Speaker 1: That's the right call because a lot of the stuff,
Speaker 1: you know, it's going to be morning until we have
Speaker 1: concrete answers. So thank you to everybody for tuning in.
Speaker 1: They'll see you back here bright and early. Get some sleep.