WEBVTT - Breaking Points Full Election Night Audio 0:00:14.560 --> 0:00:20.239 Good evening, everybody. Welcome to our election live stream. We 0:00:20.320 --> 0:00:22.520 have an amazing show for all of you today, as 0:00:22.520 --> 0:00:24.599 you can all see. I hope this is working, Crystal. 0:00:24.680 --> 0:00:27.200 So what do we have today? Indeed, we do a 0:00:27.200 --> 0:00:29.680 few things to talk about. There will be results, of course, 0:00:29.720 --> 0:00:32.199 coming in all night. We'll be doing our analysis here 0:00:32.240 --> 0:00:35.040 with Marshall and with Kyle. We have the Counterpoints crew, 0:00:35.080 --> 0:00:37.400 Ryan and Emily coming in later. So we're very excited 0:00:37.400 --> 0:00:40.160 about that. We have reporters on the ground from Status KUP, 0:00:40.200 --> 0:00:42.840 both with Team Oz in Pennsylvania and also with Team 0:00:42.880 --> 0:00:46.600 Fetterman in Pennsylvania. We've got great election like data geek 0:00:46.640 --> 0:00:49.720 analysis from j Miles Coleman later on. So we'll be 0:00:49.760 --> 0:00:53.040 tracking all of those things and more. Before we get 0:00:53.080 --> 0:00:55.320 to any of that, though, I have the biggest announcement 0:00:55.360 --> 0:00:57.520 of the night, which is that for those of you 0:00:57.600 --> 0:00:59.560 watching this live stream, handing out a little bit of 0:00:59.560 --> 0:01:01.920 a discount. That's right, premium subscription. We've got the ten 0:01:01.920 --> 0:01:04.320 percent off on the premium subscription. It's the last time 0:01:04.319 --> 0:01:07.399 you'll hear it, I promise. Listen, guys, this is all 0:01:07.440 --> 0:01:09.720 made possible because of our premium subs, many of whom 0:01:09.959 --> 0:01:12.240 are watching right now, what christ will just describe people 0:01:12.240 --> 0:01:15.160 on the ground having our full control room back there, 0:01:15.200 --> 0:01:17.400 Marshall Kyle, the Counterpoints crew. It costs a lot of 0:01:17.440 --> 0:01:19.319 money and so as we gear up not only for 0:01:19.400 --> 0:01:22.120 this but for the future and given the imminent possible 0:01:22.120 --> 0:01:24.800 Trump announcement, if you can help us build up, it's 0:01:24.920 --> 0:01:27.240 really really helps us out so much. There's a link 0:01:27.280 --> 0:01:29.280 in the chat and also in the description of this 0:01:29.400 --> 0:01:31.440 video ten percent off on the annual which just helps 0:01:31.520 --> 0:01:33.920 us so much in terms of planning. So thank you 0:01:33.920 --> 0:01:35.679 all so much to the existing ones who are watching, 0:01:35.720 --> 0:01:37.560 and the link is there for those of you have 0:01:37.640 --> 0:01:39.600 the kindness in your hearts. But with that, why don't 0:01:39.600 --> 0:01:41.240 we kick it off? What do we know? All right? 0:01:41.280 --> 0:01:44.640 So first we are already getting some results out of 0:01:44.800 --> 0:01:48.040 Indiana and Kentucky. Their polls closed at six There aren't 0:01:48.160 --> 0:01:50.960 really many competitive races there, so there isn't a lot 0:01:50.960 --> 0:01:54.520 to read into those results just yet. But right now 0:01:54.600 --> 0:01:57.840 seven pm, there are some key states that's polls whose 0:01:57.920 --> 0:02:04.240 polls just closed, including Georgia. Also Virginia which does have 0:02:04.360 --> 0:02:06.440 doesn't have any state wide races, but does have some 0:02:06.520 --> 0:02:09.400 like key bell Weather races, including the district that Kyle 0:02:09.440 --> 0:02:11.760 and I live in at this point, so Abigail Spanberger 0:02:11.800 --> 0:02:14.800 that one. So we'll be keeping a close eye there. 0:02:14.919 --> 0:02:18.639 Seven thirty we get all of North Carolina, Ohio, West Virginia, 0:02:18.720 --> 0:02:21.320 parts of New Hampshire, so you can see right away 0:02:21.360 --> 0:02:23.600 we'll be starting to get some election results in that 0:02:23.639 --> 0:02:25.440 will start to tell us what the night is going 0:02:25.480 --> 0:02:28.360 to look like. Eight PM you get a whole slew 0:02:28.480 --> 0:02:34.079 of states, including Florida, including Pennsylvania is At eight, you've 0:02:34.080 --> 0:02:38.000 got Texas. At eight you've got New Jersey, Kansas, and Michigan, 0:02:38.080 --> 0:02:40.840 a whole lot others also closing at eight. Then at 0:02:40.840 --> 0:02:42.440 eight thirty you get all of Arkansas. I know a 0:02:42.480 --> 0:02:44.760 lot of folks out there really waiting on those Arkansas 0:02:44.800 --> 0:02:48.960 results with baited breath. Nine PM, no offense, Arkansas, lovely 0:02:49.000 --> 0:02:52.640 staying from nine pm. We got Colorado, we got Io, 0:02:52.760 --> 0:02:57.120 we got Kansas, Louisiana, Michigan comes in at nine, New York, 0:02:57.200 --> 0:03:01.040 which Democrats have ended up being surprisingly kind of nervous about. Wisconsin, 0:03:01.520 --> 0:03:04.520 and some of Arizona we start to get at nine, 0:03:04.680 --> 0:03:08.600 and at ten we get all of Arizona, all of Nevada, 0:03:08.680 --> 0:03:11.280 and a few other states. Oregon starts to come in 0:03:11.320 --> 0:03:13.480 then as well, and then we go on from there, 0:03:13.520 --> 0:03:16.320 so you can see we're getting key results throughout the night. 0:03:16.360 --> 0:03:18.520 I think it's important to put in the warning that 0:03:18.560 --> 0:03:22.160 there have already been results of some problems in Arizona, Pennsylvania. 0:03:22.160 --> 0:03:24.680 I think, in particular, we expect the results to be 0:03:24.760 --> 0:03:27.560 relatively slow going. You might have an effect in some 0:03:27.600 --> 0:03:29.919 of these states same as we did in twenty twenty 0:03:29.919 --> 0:03:32.440 where you have like the red mirage because you now 0:03:32.440 --> 0:03:35.040 have such a partisan divide in terms of how voters 0:03:35.080 --> 0:03:37.920 cast their ballots. So if the election day votes are 0:03:37.960 --> 0:03:41.120 counted first, you may see a huge red wave that 0:03:41.160 --> 0:03:43.960 then Democrats sort of eat into. You might see the reverse. 0:03:44.000 --> 0:03:45.720 You might see the mail in ballots come in first, 0:03:45.720 --> 0:03:48.120 in which case you might have a huge Democratic margin. 0:03:48.440 --> 0:03:51.440 So I would just say, you know, hold tight, wait 0:03:51.480 --> 0:03:53.440 until the results all come in, and we will see 0:03:53.480 --> 0:03:55.120 where this all ends out. Yeah, I just want to 0:03:55.160 --> 0:03:58.200 reiterate that Pennsylvania, in particular, they've already come out of 0:03:58.200 --> 0:04:00.200 the Secretary of State said we likely will not the 0:04:00.280 --> 0:04:02.240 results for a couple of days, which is kind of 0:04:02.240 --> 0:04:05.120 crazy if you ask me the same thing. In Arizona, 0:04:05.160 --> 0:04:09.080 they were saying around Arizona for Nevada as well. Also, 0:04:09.080 --> 0:04:11.000 I should remind people I actually didn't even know this. 0:04:11.040 --> 0:04:14.800 We were doing research, which is that the Red states 0:04:14.880 --> 0:04:17.560 in the Midwest, or the Purple States, if you will, 0:04:17.600 --> 0:04:19.680 many of them have enacted loss Crystal where the early 0:04:19.760 --> 0:04:22.680 vote is not actually allowed to be counted until today, right, 0:04:22.720 --> 0:04:24.880 and so even though many of those votes and ballots 0:04:24.880 --> 0:04:27.200 are banked, they're not allowed to count them, which would 0:04:27.279 --> 0:04:29.640 lead to the so called reg mirage phenomenal the year, 0:04:30.160 --> 0:04:32.359 same deal in twenty twenty as we had then, and 0:04:32.400 --> 0:04:35.279 we went through an excruciating detail which states had which laws, 0:04:35.320 --> 0:04:37.320 but just suffice it to say some of the key 0:04:37.360 --> 0:04:40.599 states have that similar dynamic going on. Okay, So Soger 0:04:40.640 --> 0:04:42.640 and I on the show yesterday we gave you kind 0:04:42.640 --> 0:04:44.839 of our analysis of what we think is going to happen. 0:04:45.160 --> 0:04:47.440 So I thought we could check in with our friends 0:04:47.440 --> 0:04:49.600 here Cala Marshall find out what you guys think for 0:04:49.640 --> 0:04:52.040 the night. Marshall, since i'm you know, buiased towards this one, 0:04:52.040 --> 0:04:54.320 I'll go ahead and kick it off to you. What 0:04:54.880 --> 0:04:58.320 is your overall expectation. I think we all probably expect 0:04:58.360 --> 0:05:00.440 Republicans to take the House do you think do you 0:05:00.480 --> 0:05:02.760 think it's a huge margin. Do you think this is 0:05:02.800 --> 0:05:07.520 like red tsunami situation, red waves situation, or do Democrats 0:05:07.520 --> 0:05:10.680 somehow manage to cobble together their control of the Senate. 0:05:10.880 --> 0:05:13.800 I'm not a big ocean guy, but yeah, whatever, A 0:05:13.880 --> 0:05:22.600 moderate tsunami is tywhoon. Yeah, moderate red tsunami. The take 0:05:23.520 --> 0:05:26.160 it's going to be a little less hardcore than our 0:05:26.240 --> 0:05:28.920 friends on like conservative Twitter are saying, yeah, but it's 0:05:28.960 --> 0:05:33.040 still going to be a really devastating the term. Yeah, yeah, 0:05:33.080 --> 0:05:34.920 what do you think? I mean, I kind of agree 0:05:34.960 --> 0:05:37.920 with Marshall. I will say that coming into this election 0:05:38.560 --> 0:05:41.240 it was weird because this was the first election where 0:05:41.279 --> 0:05:45.400 I really felt like I had zero intuition about which 0:05:45.440 --> 0:05:47.800 way it was going to go. I remember back in 0:05:47.839 --> 0:05:50.040 twenty sixteen, I was one of the people who was 0:05:50.080 --> 0:05:51.880 kind of sounding the alarm when it was clear there 0:05:51.920 --> 0:05:54.000 was going to be Hillary versus Trump, because I felt 0:05:54.000 --> 0:05:55.800 like he could kind of hammer away on all of 0:05:55.800 --> 0:05:59.159 her weaknesses effectively. But in this race, there's just so 0:05:59.279 --> 0:06:01.839 many variables that I keep bouncing around in my head. 0:06:01.839 --> 0:06:05.679 On the one hand, you think, look inflation, inflation, inflation, crime, crime, crime, 0:06:05.760 --> 0:06:07.600 all the Republicans have to do is repeat that until 0:06:07.600 --> 0:06:10.000 the end of time, and then you know, effectively they 0:06:10.000 --> 0:06:13.880 could win. But then on the other hand, Roe versus 0:06:13.880 --> 0:06:16.480 WAD was overturned, and that's like a that's a huge deal. 0:06:16.720 --> 0:06:19.679 And you know, you also have, I think this pretty 0:06:19.760 --> 0:06:24.040 open extremism on the right that's different from previous iterations 0:06:24.680 --> 0:06:27.599 on the right because about fifty three percent of the 0:06:27.640 --> 0:06:31.880 Republican candidates either deny or question the election, and I 0:06:31.880 --> 0:06:34.600 think that might actually weigh on voters. And then you 0:06:34.640 --> 0:06:37.920 also have what I think are some pretty significant accomplishments 0:06:37.920 --> 0:06:40.279 from the Body administration from my perspective in terms of 0:06:40.279 --> 0:06:42.520 my ideology, because you have student loan debt reduction, partnering 0:06:42.520 --> 0:06:45.159 non violent weed defenders. You have the IRA, which, granted, 0:06:45.200 --> 0:06:46.440 even though I think it was a weak piece of 0:06:46.560 --> 0:06:49.200 legislation overall compared to build back better, you still had 0:06:49.200 --> 0:06:51.440 some great provisions in that like fifteen percent corporate minimum 0:06:51.440 --> 0:06:55.080 tax rate, one percent tax on stock buybacks, billions dollars 0:06:55.160 --> 0:06:58.120 more for Obamacare, which will give millions more Americans health care. 0:06:58.160 --> 0:07:00.960 So you have this like amalgamation of factors which just 0:07:01.000 --> 0:07:03.400 makes it a big question mark. So I kind of 0:07:03.400 --> 0:07:07.120 agree with Marshall that ultimately, if he had a gun 0:07:07.160 --> 0:07:08.799 to my head and said you have to pick something, 0:07:08.839 --> 0:07:10.880 you can't be agnostic when I want to be agnostic. 0:07:11.080 --> 0:07:13.920 But what I would say is probably Republicans fifty one 0:07:14.000 --> 0:07:16.880 or fifty two seats in the Senate, and they're going 0:07:16.920 --> 0:07:18.320 to take the House, but it's not going to be 0:07:18.360 --> 0:07:20.600 as big as like the twenty ten Tea Party wave. 0:07:20.720 --> 0:07:24.280 So Amy Walter over at cook Political actually had a 0:07:24.320 --> 0:07:28.160 good in terms of the like wave terminology. She had 0:07:28.240 --> 0:07:31.280 a good way of breaking down the three possibilities for 0:07:31.320 --> 0:07:34.160 the night. So one, she said, the red tsunami, which 0:07:34.240 --> 0:07:37.600 is like Republicans sweep all of the toss up races, 0:07:37.720 --> 0:07:40.120 there's a huge wave in the house. You know, they 0:07:40.160 --> 0:07:43.320 gain control of the Senate quite handily, talking about something 0:07:43.360 --> 0:07:45.640 like twenty ten, right analogous to twenty ten or two 0:07:45.640 --> 0:07:48.640 thousand and six for the Democrats. The next would be 0:07:48.680 --> 0:07:52.280 what she called wavy or maybe like wavesh which is 0:07:52.320 --> 0:07:53.880 sort of the scenario that I think you guys are 0:07:53.960 --> 0:07:56.640 laying out and that I also sort of envision, which 0:07:56.680 --> 0:07:59.280 is the Republicans take control of the Senate, but it's 0:07:59.280 --> 0:08:03.080 sort of like just barely. They have essentially matched or 0:08:03.080 --> 0:08:05.440 maybe a little bit of an enthusiasm edge over the 0:08:05.440 --> 0:08:08.640 Democrats and Independence break their way, but it's not overwhelming. 0:08:08.680 --> 0:08:10.600 And then you fall in that mark of like maybe 0:08:10.640 --> 0:08:13.760 twenty to thirty seats in terms of the House, and 0:08:13.800 --> 0:08:16.600 then you have the red ripple, which is like the 0:08:16.680 --> 0:08:20.600 House margins are really held down. They aren't able ultimately 0:08:20.640 --> 0:08:22.920 to take the Senate, or it's very close, or it's 0:08:22.960 --> 0:08:24.720 fifty to fifty again, or it comes down to a 0:08:24.800 --> 0:08:27.600 runoff in Georgia, which I also think is definitely a possibility. 0:08:27.880 --> 0:08:30.680 So I think those are like the realistic possibilities that 0:08:30.720 --> 0:08:33.640 are kind of on the table at this point. So 0:08:34.000 --> 0:08:35.720 we will read the tea leaves even though you're not 0:08:35.720 --> 0:08:39.240 supposed to, and just let me. Let me also just 0:08:39.840 --> 0:08:44.040 before I read. These exit polls oftentimes mean absolutely nothing. 0:08:44.280 --> 0:08:46.440 They can be inaccurate. They are also all that we 0:08:46.480 --> 0:08:48.760 have at this moment. Okay, so what do we have? 0:08:48.880 --> 0:08:51.000 And we were all looking at this it's a little 0:08:51.040 --> 0:08:53.360 bit interesting. So this is from the CNN exit poles. 0:08:53.360 --> 0:08:55.480 Here's what they say, feeling the way that things are 0:08:55.480 --> 0:09:01.600 going in the United States. Enthusiastic five percent, satisfied, percent dissatisfied, 0:09:01.720 --> 0:09:05.400 thirty nine percent, angry thirty four percent. What is your 0:09:05.440 --> 0:09:08.000 opinion of Joe Biden as president? This is surprising, Crystal 0:09:08.240 --> 0:09:12.000 Approve forty five percent, disapprove fifty four percent. That is 0:09:12.080 --> 0:09:14.680 much higher approval rating. That's actually for a long time 0:09:14.920 --> 0:09:17.559 not bad, yep. I mean, you know, if you're president 0:09:17.600 --> 0:09:19.199 of the United States and you're going into the midterms, 0:09:19.240 --> 0:09:22.080 you never want to see your approval rating underwater. But 0:09:22.200 --> 0:09:24.400 forty five percent is on the higher end of what 0:09:24.440 --> 0:09:26.800 he's been getting. You know, it tells you at least 0:09:26.800 --> 0:09:28.959 in the composition of this exit pole, which again you 0:09:29.000 --> 0:09:31.000 should take with like a million grains of salt and 0:09:31.040 --> 0:09:33.840 basically discard entirely, but at least in the composition of 0:09:33.880 --> 0:09:36.679 this exit pole, they're slightly more favorable to him than 0:09:36.720 --> 0:09:39.400 what poles have been showing recently. And we also have 0:09:39.440 --> 0:09:43.520 seen a pretty consistent trend of the Democratic Senate candidates 0:09:43.840 --> 0:09:46.800 out running Joe Biden. Not so much because I mean 0:09:46.800 --> 0:09:49.200 some of them I do think genuinely are good candidates. 0:09:49.240 --> 0:09:50.840 Mark Kelly I would put in that category. I think 0:09:50.880 --> 0:09:53.160 Warnock I would put in that category as well. Fetterman 0:09:53.200 --> 0:09:55.680 I put in that category until he had a stroke. 0:09:56.160 --> 0:09:58.880 But also because the Republicans nominated a bunch of psychos 0:09:59.120 --> 0:10:01.040 that has caused, you know, some problems for them on 0:10:01.080 --> 0:10:04.199 the other side. So I think that's why Democrats at 0:10:04.200 --> 0:10:08.280 the Senate level have kind of consistently outperformed Biden's approval ratings. 0:10:08.320 --> 0:10:11.160 So when you see him at forty five percent, if 0:10:11.240 --> 0:10:14.760 that was accurate, which is like again a gigantic, gigantic, 0:10:14.800 --> 0:10:16.640 if that's word, is doing a lot of work there, 0:10:17.040 --> 0:10:20.120 then if your Democrats are going, Okay, we're in the ballgame. 0:10:20.200 --> 0:10:22.600 We got a shot, right, And I think, actually, I'll 0:10:22.640 --> 0:10:24.480 kick it to Marshall and to Kyle on this one. 0:10:24.520 --> 0:10:27.440 This is I found absolutely fascinating. Was your us hout 0:10:27.600 --> 0:10:31.679 vote to quote support Biden eighteen percent, oppose Biden thirty 0:10:31.720 --> 0:10:35.920 two percent, Biden not a factor forty eight percent. And 0:10:35.960 --> 0:10:38.120 this also impacts one, which is that the effect of 0:10:38.160 --> 0:10:41.880 Biden's policies on the country hurting forty six, helping thirty six, 0:10:41.920 --> 0:10:44.440 not making a difference sixteen Did any of those numbers 0:10:44.440 --> 0:10:46.360 stick out to you? For me? It was Biden not 0:10:46.400 --> 0:10:48.720 a factor. What do you think, Marshall? Biden not a factor? 0:10:48.720 --> 0:10:51.360 And I think to Crystal what you were saying about 0:10:51.360 --> 0:10:54.840 how Biden's polls are decent actually for a president in 0:10:54.840 --> 0:10:56.480 this period. I think they're a little better than what 0:10:56.480 --> 0:10:59.240 Trump's were yes during the twenty eighteen mid terms. This 0:10:59.320 --> 0:11:01.520 gets at the difficult of trying to read too much 0:11:01.800 --> 0:11:05.080 into these election results for twenty twenty four. The second 0:11:05.080 --> 0:11:07.720 it becomes personal, that is going to scramble and this 0:11:07.800 --> 0:11:10.760 doesn't feel personal right now out of a repudiation level, 0:11:10.760 --> 0:11:12.960 if you're looking at these houses and candidates, I wanted 0:11:12.960 --> 0:11:14.959 to pick up one thing, Kyle, you said, that's interesting 0:11:15.000 --> 0:11:17.360 here why it's hard to get a big narrative about 0:11:17.360 --> 0:11:22.120 this election, the democracy, the election integrity claims, like the 0:11:22.200 --> 0:11:25.000 races where it's making an effect or not like Pennsylvania, 0:11:25.120 --> 0:11:28.440 Doug Mastrigano, he's probably going to lose tonight because he's 0:11:28.480 --> 0:11:31.720 seen as an extreme because he is an extremist. It's 0:11:31.880 --> 0:11:33.880 not just like a perception. I think it's actually extreme 0:11:34.160 --> 0:11:38.000 on election denial issues. But Carrie Lake Arizona, if she 0:11:38.080 --> 0:11:40.240 at the same time, is not being punished for it. 0:11:40.320 --> 0:11:43.240 So I'm interested in not just like dunking on people 0:11:43.280 --> 0:11:45.440 saying like, oh, why are you talking about democracies so much? 0:11:45.520 --> 0:11:47.720 Why does it work in certain races? And not in others. 0:11:47.760 --> 0:11:49.679 I'm curious, like if you have a theory for that, Kyle. 0:11:50.040 --> 0:11:51.560 I don't have a theory for that. But I also 0:11:51.600 --> 0:11:54.160 find it fascinating, like you do, Crystal. You bring something 0:11:54.240 --> 0:11:56.040 up all the time that I think is really interesting, 0:11:56.040 --> 0:11:58.960 which is what our voter is going to prioritize, like 0:12:00.160 --> 0:12:03.080 you aading individual candidates or just like the national mood, 0:12:03.520 --> 0:12:06.040 because in this instance, those things are totally at odds, 0:12:06.040 --> 0:12:08.800 they are completely contradictory. If you go like individual candidates, 0:12:08.800 --> 0:12:10.000 you're going to look at the carry Lakes, You're going 0:12:10.040 --> 0:12:12.160 to look at the Mastriano's, You're going to look at 0:12:12.559 --> 0:12:14.559 look even odds, I would argue, and you're going to 0:12:14.600 --> 0:12:16.000 be like, oh, I don't like that. But if you 0:12:16.080 --> 0:12:18.959 just go national mood, I mean historically, and I actually 0:12:18.960 --> 0:12:20.360 have the numbers up here, I wanted to share this 0:12:20.400 --> 0:12:24.320 with you guys. Historically, it is the case that, at 0:12:24.400 --> 0:12:27.079 least in recent American history, it is the case that 0:12:27.520 --> 0:12:31.440 you have these backlash pendulum elections. So in nineteen ninety four, 0:12:31.480 --> 0:12:33.480 Bill Clinton had a forty four percent approval rating, which 0:12:33.480 --> 0:12:35.040 by the way, is the exact same approve rating Biden 0:12:35.080 --> 0:12:37.720 has today. In the average of polls, he lost fifty 0:12:37.720 --> 0:12:40.160 four seats ye had Barack Obama had a forty five 0:12:40.240 --> 0:12:43.120 percent approval rating, he lost sixty three seats in twenty ten. 0:12:43.520 --> 0:12:45.560 And then of course twenty eighteen, Trump had a forty 0:12:45.559 --> 0:12:48.600 six percent approval rating and he lost forty seats. So 0:12:48.600 --> 0:12:50.600 we're seeing Biden with a forty four percent approval rating. 0:12:50.679 --> 0:12:52.600 Is he going to lose as many as Bill Clinton 0:12:52.600 --> 0:12:54.520 did have the exact same approval rating or is it 0:12:54.559 --> 0:12:57.640 going to be less. Part of why it could be 0:12:57.840 --> 0:13:01.520 less could is because you know, I was actually on 0:13:01.559 --> 0:13:04.480 the ballot in twenty ten running a hopeless campaign as 0:13:04.480 --> 0:13:07.720 a Democrat for Congress and very conservative area in like 0:13:07.760 --> 0:13:09.959 the Tea Party wave year, and so I remember it 0:13:10.040 --> 0:13:14.320 quite well. And it wasn't just that Republicans were super energized, 0:13:14.360 --> 0:13:17.439 and they were. It was also that Dems were depressed. 0:13:17.640 --> 0:13:20.640 You know, they had so much hope for the Obama era, 0:13:20.920 --> 0:13:23.600 and they had so much you know, they really believed 0:13:23.600 --> 0:13:25.839 in the sky, and they really thought that things were 0:13:25.880 --> 0:13:28.160 going to change in the country, was going to be transformed, 0:13:28.200 --> 0:13:30.440 it was going to be this whole thing. And then 0:13:30.480 --> 0:13:33.600 when he's a disappointment, and you know, the dreams didn't 0:13:33.600 --> 0:13:36.440 all come true. There was a huge depression in terms 0:13:36.480 --> 0:13:40.319 of the Democratic vote. Democrats are very highly motivated. I 0:13:40.360 --> 0:13:44.440 mean Republicans might be more motivated, and I think independence 0:13:45.160 --> 0:13:47.480 seemed to at least in the most recent polls have 0:13:47.640 --> 0:13:50.400 swung towards Republicans for a variety of issues. I would 0:13:50.480 --> 0:13:52.840 lay that, you know, primarily in terms of the economy, 0:13:52.840 --> 0:13:54.200 but I think crime has been a part of that 0:13:54.280 --> 0:13:58.199 as well. But you do have perhaps a match in 0:13:58.320 --> 0:14:02.240 terms of Democratic enthusiasm Republican enthusiasm. That's why I don't 0:14:02.280 --> 0:14:05.960 know that it'll be the blowout tsunami wave that you 0:14:06.000 --> 0:14:08.640 saw in You're like twenty ten. I'll tell you another 0:14:08.640 --> 0:14:11.080 thing that I was thinking about today in terms of 0:14:11.080 --> 0:14:13.079 what you were just saying, Kyle, and like the candidate 0:14:13.120 --> 0:14:17.440 quality question versus the national mood question. To me, the 0:14:17.520 --> 0:14:21.240 House races are almost one hundred percent just national mood. Absolutely, 0:14:21.320 --> 0:14:24.480 people don't really pay attention to the congressional candidates. There's 0:14:24.520 --> 0:14:27.400 not enough ad spending, Like you don't really know the 0:14:27.440 --> 0:14:29.120 ins and outs of who they are and whether you 0:14:29.200 --> 0:14:30.800 like them or not, and what they've done or what 0:14:30.800 --> 0:14:33.760 they want to do. That to me is almost completely 0:14:33.880 --> 0:14:37.000 just national mood. At the Senate level, you get a 0:14:37.000 --> 0:14:39.120 little bit more of a sense of these people as 0:14:39.240 --> 0:14:42.400 characters and as individuals, And so I could see a 0:14:42.440 --> 0:14:45.720 scenario where it really is kind of a democratic blood 0:14:45.720 --> 0:14:48.520 bath in the House, and yet it's not quite as 0:14:48.680 --> 0:14:51.320 ugly a picture for them in the Senate. And that 0:14:51.440 --> 0:14:55.680 really is again less attestament, I think, to any sort 0:14:55.680 --> 0:14:58.720 of democratic messaging or strategy or whatever. But the fact 0:14:58.720 --> 0:15:02.080 that Republicans have really, you know, tested the willingness of 0:15:02.160 --> 0:15:04.880 voters to see how far they will go. And there 0:15:04.880 --> 0:15:06.760 were some numbers out of Georgia Soccer, I don't know 0:15:06.760 --> 0:15:08.360 if you have them in front of you, exit poll 0:15:08.480 --> 0:15:12.840 numbers asking voters what they thought of herschel Walker versus 0:15:12.920 --> 0:15:16.160 Rafael Warnock, and they asked in particular like who shows 0:15:16.520 --> 0:15:19.760 good judgment? And it was overwhelmingly like people felt like 0:15:19.840 --> 0:15:22.880 Warnock had much better judgment than herschel Walker does. So 0:15:22.920 --> 0:15:25.280 clearly there has been an assessment of their character. Now 0:15:25.320 --> 0:15:28.000 is that determinant of their vote? Nobody knows, But I 0:15:28.040 --> 0:15:31.360 can see the candidate quality piece being at least somewhat 0:15:31.440 --> 0:15:33.280 more significant at the Senate level than it is at 0:15:33.280 --> 0:15:35.040 the House lode. To me, this is the ultimate test 0:15:35.040 --> 0:15:37.520 of that political science study which had about a decade ago, 0:15:37.600 --> 0:15:41.480 which is does political quality? Does candidate quality matter at all? 0:15:41.520 --> 0:15:45.880 And in general overwhelmingly people continue to tell us no. Now, 0:15:45.880 --> 0:15:48.080 as Ryan very aptly pointed out on the show, we 0:15:48.160 --> 0:15:50.840 have never had the candidates that we had of this 0:15:50.880 --> 0:15:54.160 titan special sort. It's a true testry. So what you 0:15:54.200 --> 0:15:56.120 alluded to, I have it in front of me. Who 0:15:56.160 --> 0:15:58.960 shows good judgment? For again, exit polls taken with a 0:15:58.960 --> 0:16:01.040 massive grain of solid don't if it's true or not, 0:16:01.200 --> 0:16:03.880 but it's all we got. Only Warnock forty six percent 0:16:03.880 --> 0:16:07.080 shows good judgment. Only Walker shows good judgment twenty eight percent, 0:16:07.280 --> 0:16:11.320 both at five neither at eighteen. Another I think interesting one. 0:16:11.400 --> 0:16:14.400 You know in that regard around Georgia is around the 0:16:14.440 --> 0:16:16.960 extreme is an issue. They're like, do you think that 0:16:17.080 --> 0:16:21.080 Herschel Walker is extreme or not? And in that one, 0:16:21.160 --> 0:16:23.320 I mean you didn't see. Sorry, it was fairly close. 0:16:23.360 --> 0:16:25.680 It was like in front of me Warnock had actually 0:16:25.800 --> 0:16:29.040 was forty three percent nine percent for oh, I got 0:16:29.040 --> 0:16:31.200 it almost right forty four and thirty nine percent right. 0:16:31.240 --> 0:16:34.680 So only Warnock, they've say is too extreme forty four percent, 0:16:34.720 --> 0:16:37.840 only Walker thirty nine neither at nine and both at five, 0:16:37.840 --> 0:16:41.320 which is just such an amazing testament to candidate sorry 0:16:41.320 --> 0:16:45.080 to partisan polarization in terms of nobody says both. It 0:16:45.120 --> 0:16:48.520 really is either this guy or my guy, neither or 0:16:48.760 --> 0:16:51.080 I find that a little bit interesting as to whether 0:16:51.120 --> 0:16:53.040 it even matters or not. I mean, I think it's 0:16:53.040 --> 0:16:55.880 worth going over the five thirty eight elements. So why 0:16:55.920 --> 0:16:58.080 don't we go ahead, guys number two, Let's go and 0:16:58.120 --> 0:17:00.800 put that up there on the screen. So we had 0:17:00.920 --> 0:17:03.400 the five thirty eight average polled, and what we'll put 0:17:03.520 --> 0:17:06.080 up there on the screen shows it at fifty five 0:17:06.320 --> 0:17:09.560 to forty five. Now it's actually adjusted so that one 0:17:09.560 --> 0:17:12.440 shows fifty eight to forty two. Since that actually was made, 0:17:12.560 --> 0:17:15.560 it is now actually at fifty nine to forty one 0:17:15.680 --> 0:17:17.760 in terms of their percentage chances. I think it's also 0:17:17.880 --> 0:17:20.720 worth going race by race as to what the most 0:17:20.800 --> 0:17:24.200 razor type ones are according to their polling average weight. 0:17:24.720 --> 0:17:27.720 Adam Laxalt and Cortes Masso, they have a fifty one 0:17:28.000 --> 0:17:30.560 in one hundred in Nevada. For the audience which is watching, 0:17:30.640 --> 0:17:32.199 Ryan and Emily will be on at that time, but 0:17:32.240 --> 0:17:33.600 we really are not going to know a lot on 0:17:33.720 --> 0:17:37.640 term around eleven pm Eastern time, Oz Fetterman, though they 0:17:37.680 --> 0:17:40.359 switched Chrystal much more in the OZ direction. Just in 0:17:40.400 --> 0:17:42.719 the last twenty four hours. They have it now at 0:17:42.720 --> 0:17:46.359 fifty seven percent chance of Oz winning given the last 0:17:46.400 --> 0:17:49.240 polls that all came in his favor. For Warnock, they 0:17:49.280 --> 0:17:52.720 actually have it at sixty three percent for herschel Walker, 0:17:52.760 --> 0:17:55.959 which I found interesting. Blake Masters they have losing. They 0:17:55.960 --> 0:17:58.520 have a sixty six percent chance in favor of Mark Kelly. 0:17:58.520 --> 0:18:01.080 That's kind of an interesting one. I thought it'd be. Yeah, 0:18:01.359 --> 0:18:03.280 it is. I mean curious what you think, Marshall. Something 0:18:03.320 --> 0:18:05.600 I floated on the show was I think the strength 0:18:05.600 --> 0:18:08.439 of Kerry Lake's candidacy visa v. Katie Hobbs, who is 0:18:08.600 --> 0:18:11.159 just objectively like a very bad candidate, didn't do the debate, 0:18:11.440 --> 0:18:14.640 was hiding may actually be the saving grace for Black Masters, 0:18:15.080 --> 0:18:17.440 because the split ticket voting is just it's a rare 0:18:17.440 --> 0:18:20.040 phenomenon in the year twenty twenty two. Yeah, there's a 0:18:20.080 --> 0:18:21.520 lot of that. And I think the other thing that's 0:18:21.600 --> 0:18:23.840 clear here is christ who said this Mark Kelly is 0:18:23.840 --> 0:18:27.000 a good Democratic candidate state like Arizona. Yeah, so you're 0:18:27.040 --> 0:18:31.440 just really seeing that this is where the to your point, anecdotally, 0:18:31.480 --> 0:18:33.600 I just can't reject the candidate quality story here, but 0:18:33.640 --> 0:18:36.280 it seems to be the story of this year right now. 0:18:36.280 --> 0:18:37.480 And I think the other thing that I want to 0:18:37.520 --> 0:18:39.359 just pick up on real quick, Crystal, because I think 0:18:39.359 --> 0:18:41.600 it's important to know from people when you're talking about 0:18:41.600 --> 0:18:45.560 twenty ten versus twenty twenty two. The difference in twenty 0:18:45.560 --> 0:18:47.600 ten is like you're not with door knocking. Yeah, you're 0:18:47.640 --> 0:18:49.080 kind of having to walk around and be like, oh, like, 0:18:49.080 --> 0:18:50.760 here are all these things that are happening, and here's 0:18:50.800 --> 0:18:53.000 why this Obama Jenit thing is actually kind of good, 0:18:53.000 --> 0:18:55.120 and that's kind of difficult to do Democrats, like I'm 0:18:55.119 --> 0:18:58.200 coming from Texas, so Democrats are energized, and in weird ways, 0:18:58.200 --> 0:19:00.280 they're acting like they're not in control right now. So 0:19:00.320 --> 0:19:02.800 if you're a Democrat, you control the House, you could 0:19:02.840 --> 0:19:04.960 roll a cent you control the presidency. It does not 0:19:05.080 --> 0:19:06.879 feel like that in the country right now. And if 0:19:06.920 --> 0:19:09.199 you're looking where the Biden administration has really struggled, it's 0:19:09.320 --> 0:19:12.040 the contradiction there. You both own it. But if you're 0:19:12.080 --> 0:19:14.560 looking at Supreme Court decision, if you're looking at the 0:19:14.560 --> 0:19:16.920 student loan issue, the Supreme Court itself too. You don't 0:19:16.960 --> 0:19:18.359 feel like you're in control. So that's going to be 0:19:18.400 --> 0:19:21.760 confounding variable for the next bit. Let me give you 0:19:21.800 --> 0:19:24.280 guys an interesting data point on Pennsylvania, because I know 0:19:24.320 --> 0:19:26.240 that the polls now show that Oz is up and 0:19:26.440 --> 0:19:27.960 he closed the gap. I mean, there was a while 0:19:27.960 --> 0:19:30.199 where Fetterman was way up. OZ closed the gap, and 0:19:30.240 --> 0:19:32.600 now he's up at least according to the five thirty 0:19:32.600 --> 0:19:34.440 eight numbers, which is like the average of the polls. 0:19:34.720 --> 0:19:38.560 CBS Pennsylvania exit poll, which one of these issues mattered 0:19:38.560 --> 0:19:42.439 most to your vote, Abortion is number one thirty six percent. 0:19:42.560 --> 0:19:45.479 Very interesting behind that is inflation twenty after that. I 0:19:45.560 --> 0:19:47.600 was shocked by that too. I was very shocked by that. Well, 0:19:47.600 --> 0:19:49.280 whether it's true or not, you know, that's that's the 0:19:49.280 --> 0:19:51.320 real question. I think. Let's go ahead put number six 0:19:51.359 --> 0:19:54.879 up there. We've got the Pennsylvania RCP average that shows 0:19:54.960 --> 0:19:56.800 us exactly what we're working with. Then why the five 0:19:56.920 --> 0:19:59.000 thirty eight average moved in that direction? So we have 0:19:59.080 --> 0:20:01.560 RCP and five there eight there. What they show is 0:20:01.560 --> 0:20:03.880 that Oz in the final average is at up by 0:20:03.960 --> 0:20:06.199 only point one. I mean, that's not a margin that 0:20:06.200 --> 0:20:09.360 you necessarily a good one. You've got plus two, plus two, 0:20:09.359 --> 0:20:11.840 plus three, and then you had that very strange Marris 0:20:11.960 --> 0:20:14.040 poll which we talked about on our last show, Crystal, 0:20:14.080 --> 0:20:17.520 with Fetterman up by six points. I mean, look on 0:20:17.560 --> 0:20:21.040 that one, I think it's difficult, which is that I 0:20:21.160 --> 0:20:24.680 do tend though to come back on Biden may be 0:20:25.040 --> 0:20:29.479 more important in Pennsylvania, given that he has such a 0:20:29.480 --> 0:20:32.840 low approval rating. Well here is rec going well, going 0:20:32.880 --> 0:20:35.399 back to like the whole candidate quality question, which is 0:20:35.520 --> 0:20:38.440 kind of central to what ultimately happens tonight, right, because 0:20:38.440 --> 0:20:41.040 if you're going by the fundamentals, the Democrats are done. 0:20:41.040 --> 0:20:43.480 They're toast, it's over, it's ugly. You know, Republicans are 0:20:43.520 --> 0:20:45.720 winning like fifty six seats in the Senate. The only 0:20:45.760 --> 0:20:48.360 reason Democrats really have a shot is because there are 0:20:48.359 --> 0:20:51.120 some questions about these candidates. I mean Pennsylvania at this point, 0:20:51.160 --> 0:20:53.520 I at the beginning of this race, I really thought 0:20:53.560 --> 0:20:55.800 Fetterman was not just like an Okay can. I really 0:20:55.800 --> 0:20:58.399 thought he was one of the best Democratic candidates in 0:20:58.440 --> 0:21:03.200 the country because he had that just natural, authentic everyman appeal. 0:21:03.359 --> 0:21:05.040 There's no doubt about it. The fact that he had 0:21:05.040 --> 0:21:07.760 a stroke really made things challenging for him. I'm in 0:21:07.800 --> 0:21:10.439 the debate performance it was very difficult to watch. But 0:21:10.560 --> 0:21:14.959 Oz is also a terrible candidate, like need we remind 0:21:14.960 --> 0:21:17.159 every one of the whole crew de Tae situation and 0:21:17.160 --> 0:21:19.800 how he was completely at the beginning of the campaign, 0:21:19.920 --> 0:21:22.560 especially the Fetterman team did an amazing job of reminding 0:21:22.600 --> 0:21:24.640 people like, this guy's a carpetbager, and he's an elitist, 0:21:24.680 --> 0:21:29.440 and he's out of touch. And even post stroke, Oz's 0:21:29.480 --> 0:21:33.359 approval ratings have been abysmal, and Fetterman's have been really solid. 0:21:33.400 --> 0:21:36.359 Like people like John Fetterman. They may have questions about 0:21:36.359 --> 0:21:38.199 whether he's really up for the Senate now or not, 0:21:38.600 --> 0:21:41.600 but they generally like John Fetterman more than they like 0:21:41.880 --> 0:21:44.520 doctor Oz, So that one I sort of put as 0:21:44.560 --> 0:21:47.000 like a wash in terms of candidate quality. But I 0:21:47.000 --> 0:21:50.280 think the governor's race in Pennsylvania you're talking about, well, 0:21:50.280 --> 0:21:53.720 what's different there versus the governor's race in Arizona. Since 0:21:53.760 --> 0:21:57.840 you have two extreme election deniers on the Republican ticket, 0:21:58.119 --> 0:22:00.760 and one of them, Carry Lake, seems very likely to 0:22:00.800 --> 0:22:04.200 win and the other one, Doug Mastriano, seems very likely 0:22:04.240 --> 0:22:08.119 to lose. There, I think candidate quality really is the 0:22:08.119 --> 0:22:10.960 only thing you can point to, and in my opinion, 0:22:11.359 --> 0:22:14.560 candidate quality is actually more important for governor's races, which 0:22:14.600 --> 0:22:17.080 tend to be somewhat less partisan. You see a place 0:22:17.119 --> 0:22:19.280 like Vermont elect a Republican. You see a place like 0:22:19.320 --> 0:22:21.840 Maryland elector Republican. You say a place like Kentucky elect 0:22:21.840 --> 0:22:24.479 a Democrat. So you have a bit more of voters 0:22:24.480 --> 0:22:27.480 who are open to either party at the gubernatorial level, 0:22:27.480 --> 0:22:29.919 because it's less about like these hard partisan who's going 0:22:29.960 --> 0:22:33.240 to control the Senate kind of questions. And in Mastriana, 0:22:33.320 --> 0:22:35.760 you have a very poor candidate who's also very extreme. 0:22:36.040 --> 0:22:38.359 In Joshapiro, who's the Democratic choice, you actually have a 0:22:38.440 --> 0:22:40.800 very good candidate who has proven himself to the state 0:22:40.920 --> 0:22:43.840 at a statewide level. He's taken on big corporations, he's 0:22:43.880 --> 0:22:46.200 taken on big pharma, he took on the Catholic Church, 0:22:46.560 --> 0:22:48.919 and there seems to be an awareness of that among 0:22:48.960 --> 0:22:50.760 the elector and I think that's part of why he's 0:22:50.800 --> 0:22:53.760 had a consistent edge going into election night, and maybe 0:22:53.760 --> 0:22:57.159 that's something that helps Fetterman here down the stretch. On 0:22:57.240 --> 0:22:59.520 the other hand, to your point saga about you know, 0:22:59.600 --> 0:23:02.720 Arizona at the gubernatorial level, Katie Hobbs, the Democrat, has 0:23:02.760 --> 0:23:05.480 been very lackluster. She was very obviously too scared to 0:23:05.560 --> 0:23:08.439 debate Carrie Lake. Carry Lake is crazy, but she is 0:23:08.520 --> 0:23:11.960 very talented and charismatic on camera, She's, you know, a 0:23:12.080 --> 0:23:15.639 television personality. She knows what she's doing. She comes across 0:23:15.720 --> 0:23:18.520 as very confident, and so I think in those situations, 0:23:18.600 --> 0:23:20.240 the only thing you can really point to there is 0:23:20.240 --> 0:23:23.080 you have two very different slates of candidates and candidate 0:23:23.119 --> 0:23:26.640 quality situation. Great question for the panel around Fetterman, Chris, 0:23:26.760 --> 0:23:30.480 you're kind of hinting at this. How much did the 0:23:30.520 --> 0:23:35.639 peak Fetterman June to July online dunking matter. It felt 0:23:35.640 --> 0:23:37.920 like it really mattered at the time, so once again 0:23:37.920 --> 0:23:41.479 the crititay ads the brilliant memes. Did it matter at 0:23:41.520 --> 0:23:43.480 all or was it a wash? I think it mattered. 0:23:44.480 --> 0:23:47.560 I think it was the substance of the dunking because 0:23:47.600 --> 0:23:50.960 the original argument was basically like a carpetbag argument. He's 0:23:50.960 --> 0:23:53.439 a carpetbagger, plus he's a massive elitist, and they kind 0:23:53.480 --> 0:23:56.080 of hammered away on that endlessly. But then I do 0:23:56.119 --> 0:23:59.480 feel like they sort of lost those the specific nature 0:23:59.480 --> 0:24:01.760 of those attacks moving forward, and then of course the stroke, 0:24:01.800 --> 0:24:03.480 you know, yeah, throws a wrench into the whole thing. 0:24:03.520 --> 0:24:06.119 But I mean, I do think I do think that mattered. 0:24:06.119 --> 0:24:09.040 But Chris, so let me ask you about Carrie Lakeby, 0:24:09.119 --> 0:24:10.560 is you know I've been thinking about this. Is it 0:24:10.600 --> 0:24:13.600 really just like the charisma thing? Because the fact of 0:24:13.600 --> 0:24:15.520 the matter is, if you like take what she says 0:24:15.680 --> 0:24:17.560 and just like write it down and hand it to somebody, 0:24:17.560 --> 0:24:19.919 people be like, whoa, what is this? This is wild? 0:24:20.160 --> 0:24:21.760 But is it just like that, like you said, she's 0:24:21.800 --> 0:24:24.640 good on camera, she delivers stuff. Well, is that enough? 0:24:24.680 --> 0:24:26.399 Is that really all that matters? And what does that 0:24:26.400 --> 0:24:29.359 say about us? If that's the case? Donald Trump is 0:24:29.400 --> 0:24:34.879 president of the United States. So listen, I can't claim 0:24:34.960 --> 0:24:37.680 to be like really deep into the weeds of Arizona 0:24:37.720 --> 0:24:40.280 politics to say for sure, if there weren't things that, 0:24:40.320 --> 0:24:42.600 like Katie Hobbes did that piss people off other than 0:24:42.600 --> 0:24:44.920 not doing the debate or like that people actually like 0:24:44.960 --> 0:24:47.639 about carry lakes platform, I really don't know. But from 0:24:47.680 --> 0:24:49.720 at the surface level, it appears to me that the 0:24:49.760 --> 0:24:54.360 fact that she is super confident, charismatic, you know, presents 0:24:54.359 --> 0:24:57.920 herself well, super comfortable on television seems to be doing 0:24:58.040 --> 0:24:59.880 a lot for her here. And just to go back 0:25:00.119 --> 0:25:03.480 the Oz Fetterman question of whether those dunks mattered, I 0:25:03.480 --> 0:25:05.959 think they really defined Oz in a very negative way 0:25:06.000 --> 0:25:08.000 from the beginning, and he's never recovered. I mean he's 0:25:08.000 --> 0:25:10.600 still I'm looking at this poll from five days ago, 0:25:10.960 --> 0:25:15.160 he's underwater favorability rating upside down, only thirty five percent 0:25:15.240 --> 0:25:19.080 have a favorable rating of him to fifty two percent unfavorable, 0:25:19.280 --> 0:25:22.719 whereas Fetterman is still above water in terms of his 0:25:22.920 --> 0:25:26.240 favorability rating. So to the extent that Fetterman is still 0:25:26.240 --> 0:25:28.359 in this fight, and you know, my prediction was that 0:25:28.440 --> 0:25:30.479 ultimately Oz is actually going to pull it out. So 0:25:30.600 --> 0:25:32.560 I you know, on the record of saying I think 0:25:32.600 --> 0:25:34.679 at this point it's probably Oz is raised to lose. 0:25:35.000 --> 0:25:36.720 But to the extent that Fetterman still has a shot 0:25:36.760 --> 0:25:38.760 in this thing, it's because people just like him more 0:25:38.800 --> 0:25:41.040 than they like doctor Oz. No. I think you're absolutely correct. 0:25:41.080 --> 0:25:43.200 You know some interesting data that we have out right 0:25:43.240 --> 0:25:45.840 now on Miami Dade County. So in terms of what's 0:25:45.880 --> 0:25:49.520 happening with Ron DeSantis, he is up currently by eight 0:25:49.560 --> 0:25:52.359 points with sixty six percent of the votes in and 0:25:52.400 --> 0:25:54.480 that is the same county that he lost Crystal by 0:25:54.600 --> 0:25:57.520 twenty points just four years ago. Well, so that is 0:25:57.560 --> 0:25:59.080 a mett I mean, look, I don't have to tell 0:25:59.080 --> 0:26:01.679 everybody about the demo graphics of Miami Dade County, but 0:26:02.040 --> 0:26:05.640 just to show you about how exactly the Latino realignment, 0:26:05.920 --> 0:26:10.760 particularly with Cuban immigrants and others in Florida, that is 0:26:10.800 --> 0:26:13.400 a stunning development. The other newsy point that I want 0:26:13.440 --> 0:26:16.159 to point on Arizona, this I predict is going to 0:26:16.160 --> 0:26:18.320 be a big thing. I was flagging it to you earlier. 0:26:18.320 --> 0:26:22.280 There were reports about problems in Maricopa County about voting machines. 0:26:22.320 --> 0:26:25.760 The RNC right now is actually filing an emergency motion 0:26:26.200 --> 0:26:29.800 to extend polling hours in Maricopa County because voting machines. 0:26:29.840 --> 0:26:31.720 This is according to them, in over twenty five percent 0:26:31.760 --> 0:26:35.359 of voting locations have experienced quote significant issues. The widespread 0:26:35.359 --> 0:26:38.119 issues in election administered by Katie Hobbs are unacceptable. This 0:26:38.160 --> 0:26:42.040 is from RNC Chairwoman Ron McDaniel. As Republicans are flocking 0:26:42.040 --> 0:26:45.040 to the polls vote in person on election day, they 0:26:45.080 --> 0:26:47.479 have dozens of attorneys and thousands of volunteers. So if 0:26:47.480 --> 0:26:49.760 it is close, I expect that to be a major flag. Well, 0:26:49.800 --> 0:26:53.800 I mean, it's ironic because it used to be that 0:26:54.560 --> 0:26:57.320 Democrats were the ones that were really concerned about election 0:26:57.480 --> 0:27:00.359 day issues because typically those issues were in this cities, 0:27:00.400 --> 0:27:02.600 and we're seeing that today in Philadelphia and they're having 0:27:02.640 --> 0:27:06.080 issues and typically, you know, it was Democratic voters who 0:27:06.080 --> 0:27:09.359 are actually more likely to vote on election day. Post 0:27:09.680 --> 0:27:13.399 COVID and especially post Trump, you now have this hard 0:27:13.480 --> 0:27:16.240 partisan split where and this is you know, this is 0:27:16.240 --> 0:27:19.000 an important factor for Republicans. Democrats have had weeks of 0:27:19.040 --> 0:27:21.040 early voting to turn their people out and figure out 0:27:21.080 --> 0:27:22.639 who vote and who has it. Let's get them to 0:27:22.680 --> 0:27:24.239 the polls and let's turn out like the ones who 0:27:24.280 --> 0:27:27.080 are reluctant, et cetera, et cetera. Republicans put all of 0:27:27.119 --> 0:27:30.480 their eggs now in this election day basket. So when 0:27:30.560 --> 0:27:34.200 there are problems in Maricopa County, as there are always 0:27:34.359 --> 0:27:38.120 issues every election somewhere in the country, they're freaking out. 0:27:38.200 --> 0:27:40.760 And of course they're not freaking out of like oh no, 0:27:40.800 --> 0:27:43.359 it's they're having issues. They're freaking out of like they're 0:27:43.400 --> 0:27:45.840 stealing it again and it's rigged. Of course, if the 0:27:45.920 --> 0:27:48.080 results go in their favor, then suddenly it's going to 0:27:48.119 --> 0:27:50.080 be all about I think they're pre pre working the 0:27:50.119 --> 0:27:53.359 ground there certainly. I mean, look, we'll see in terms 0:27:53.359 --> 0:27:55.800 of what the actual effect on that was, it was 0:27:56.080 --> 0:27:58.800 incredibly It's just my thing is with Katie Hobbs and 0:27:58.800 --> 0:28:00.520 all of them is like, you knew this was coming, 0:28:00.760 --> 0:28:03.320 and it's like, still, like what happened? Why exactly did 0:28:03.359 --> 0:28:05.359 twenty five or ten percent? I'm going to go with 0:28:05.400 --> 0:28:07.520 ten to twenty which is what I saw from the 0:28:07.520 --> 0:28:10.240 actual press conference, Like how do these machines just go down? 0:28:10.280 --> 0:28:12.479 You have to know that that is going to fuel 0:28:12.560 --> 0:28:15.719 like a serious Priortistan problem after two years of literal 0:28:15.760 --> 0:28:19.080 madness in Arizona where you had all those lawsuits and 0:28:19.119 --> 0:28:21.280 the fake audits and then there was actually a compromise 0:28:21.480 --> 0:28:25.240 voting machines by the Republican side by the overstock billionaire, 0:28:25.320 --> 0:28:28.639 which I'm going down real rabbit holes in terms of 0:28:28.640 --> 0:28:30.760 my memory for the fallout from that. I do think 0:28:30.800 --> 0:28:32.960 it is a major problem, as you said, which is 0:28:32.960 --> 0:28:36.199 that Pennsylvania now says that they had that problem. Then 0:28:36.240 --> 0:28:39.200 you also have the sorry Philadelphia had that problem Arizona. 0:28:39.400 --> 0:28:41.360 I do expect that to be a flashpoint, but I 0:28:41.400 --> 0:28:44.200 also it could disappear, like if Katie Hobbs just comes 0:28:44.240 --> 0:28:46.840 out at the moment that the polls closed in Arizona 0:28:46.840 --> 0:28:49.320 and wins, that it'll very likely disappear. But this is 0:28:49.320 --> 0:28:51.120 one I wanted to highlight for the audience because I 0:28:51.120 --> 0:28:54.680 do kind of expectively see some closer results. Do you think, Marshall, 0:28:54.680 --> 0:28:57.160 that the election denialism will play a big role here 0:28:57.160 --> 0:29:00.080 in the election in terms of like day of the 0:29:00.080 --> 0:29:04.600 awkward situation, which is not if Republicans wait right right? 0:29:04.680 --> 0:29:07.160 So I was listening to a podcast earlier to Prapp 0:29:07.160 --> 0:29:10.200 and pointed out that, look, Katie carry Lake is going 0:29:10.280 --> 0:29:14.200 to declare victory whether she wins, and that's kind of 0:29:14.200 --> 0:29:15.880 the datamic. Karen think, I kind of want to build up. 0:29:15.960 --> 0:29:19.880 I've been thinking about this election denial issue. Look, there's 0:29:19.920 --> 0:29:23.040 no conspiracy. I think that there's a large amount of 0:29:23.080 --> 0:29:25.040 incompetence in these systems. But I think if we're going 0:29:25.080 --> 0:29:28.560 to focus on where is the threat to democratic legitimacy, 0:29:28.840 --> 0:29:31.160 I think it's perfectly reasonable for people who aren't engaged 0:29:31.160 --> 0:29:33.160 with politics to say, like, wait, like it doesn't feel 0:29:33.160 --> 0:29:35.400 like elections have always been this much of across the 0:29:35.520 --> 0:29:38.160 ref So I think that, but they actually have been. Yeah, 0:29:38.200 --> 0:29:42.720 they have they been. I guess too, I mean exactly 0:29:42.760 --> 0:29:45.680 the hanging chads like, come on, they always because and 0:29:45.720 --> 0:29:48.680 it's part of like part of the strength and the 0:29:48.720 --> 0:29:51.640 resilience of the system is that you have each individual 0:29:51.680 --> 0:29:55.320 county running these things by a bunch of volunteers, you know, 0:29:55.560 --> 0:29:58.600 And so of course sometimes things are going to go 0:29:59.400 --> 0:30:02.200 awry thinking out about and by the way, I wanted 0:30:02.200 --> 0:30:05.640 to point out that the Maricopa County Twitter account is 0:30:06.280 --> 0:30:08.880 throwing haymakers at everybody who's criticizing them right now. They're 0:30:09.160 --> 0:30:11.920 responding to Charlie Kirk everybody and saying, like all this 0:30:11.960 --> 0:30:15.880 stuff is fall engaging in the discourse, right But I 0:30:15.920 --> 0:30:18.360 also wanted to give you guys just some more specifics 0:30:18.400 --> 0:30:21.680 on the election deniers, because I think these numbers are fascinating. 0:30:22.000 --> 0:30:27.560 So apparently sixty percent of Americans have at least one 0:30:27.560 --> 0:30:29.920 election denier on the ballot. Out of five hundred and 0:30:29.920 --> 0:30:33.480 fifty two total Republican nominees running for office, one hundred 0:30:33.520 --> 0:30:36.680 and ninety nine fully denied the legitimacy of the twenty 0:30:36.680 --> 0:30:41.240 twenty election, sixty one still question the election. Only seventy 0:30:41.280 --> 0:30:43.960 seven have fully accepted the results of the twenty twenty election. 0:30:44.480 --> 0:30:48.960 Ninety three accepted it with reservations. And what they say, 0:30:48.960 --> 0:30:50.760 at least according to five to thirty eight, is that 0:30:51.680 --> 0:30:55.120 you have at least one hundred are guaranteed to win, 0:30:55.480 --> 0:30:59.400 so you know it's not even competitive, including including three 0:30:59.480 --> 0:31:01.880 in the Senate. But the more important point, in Crystal, 0:31:01.920 --> 0:31:04.160 you pointed this out to me earlier, is that you 0:31:04.240 --> 0:31:08.520 also have in governor's races, there's two election deniers and 0:31:08.840 --> 0:31:12.720 four election doubters are shoe wins. And then you have 0:31:13.000 --> 0:31:16.720 probably even more importantly attorney generals and or attorney general 0:31:16.760 --> 0:31:19.880 and secretaries of state. There's a bunch of them as well. 0:31:19.920 --> 0:31:24.240 Seven election deniers running there for both respectively, for both 0:31:24.360 --> 0:31:27.320 secretary of State and attorneys general. So in total, fifty 0:31:27.360 --> 0:31:31.160 three percent of Republicans running either question or deny the 0:31:31.200 --> 0:31:33.600 election out right. So we are starting to get some 0:31:33.960 --> 0:31:37.640 very very early numbers out of the state of Georgia, 0:31:37.680 --> 0:31:40.080 and it's not even really worth telling you exactly what 0:31:40.120 --> 0:31:42.360 they are, but there is one trend that is pretty 0:31:42.360 --> 0:31:47.200 clear already again into the question of candidate quality. Governor Kemp, 0:31:47.400 --> 0:31:50.560 who is being challenged by Stacy Abrams again rematch there 0:31:50.720 --> 0:31:55.920 is outpacing Herschel Walker in his challenge to Rafael Warnock. 0:31:56.280 --> 0:31:58.960 So Kent feels very confident, you know obviously that he's 0:31:58.960 --> 0:32:02.160 going to ultimately prevail. The polls have consistently shown him up. 0:32:02.440 --> 0:32:05.160 But it does show you that, you know, in Georgia, 0:32:05.200 --> 0:32:08.720 even in times as sort of partisan and hardened as 0:32:08.760 --> 0:32:13.320 they feel, you have a significant and potentially determinative number 0:32:13.360 --> 0:32:16.440 of voters who are splitting their ticket and voting for 0:32:16.480 --> 0:32:19.480 the Republican for governor and voting for the Democrat for 0:32:19.520 --> 0:32:23.280 the Senate. Also a reminder, in Georgia you have to 0:32:23.360 --> 0:32:27.000 get over fifty percent in order to avoid a runoff. 0:32:27.400 --> 0:32:30.320 And all of the polls leading up to election day 0:32:30.480 --> 0:32:32.520 have shown, you know, whether they show Walker with a 0:32:32.600 --> 0:32:35.160 narrow lead or Warnock with a narrow lead, they show 0:32:35.200 --> 0:32:38.560 both of them coming in under fifty percentage points. So 0:32:38.640 --> 0:32:41.480 I think it is, you know, highly possible that we 0:32:41.640 --> 0:32:44.360 end up with yet another Georgia Senate run off. I 0:32:44.360 --> 0:32:47.280 think you're right, and Sean Trendio or Real Clear Politics 0:32:47.280 --> 0:32:49.760 talking about this, saying that Walker is currently is running 0:32:49.760 --> 0:32:52.720 in about four points behind Brian Camp. So that is 0:32:52.760 --> 0:32:54.640 a question of do you think that Brian camp is 0:32:54.680 --> 0:32:56.640 going to get more than fifty four percent of the 0:32:56.720 --> 0:32:58.840 raw vote. So if he does, then it's possible that 0:32:58.920 --> 0:33:01.920 Walker could have over fifty. I generally think you're right, 0:33:01.960 --> 0:33:05.080 which is that I don't see necessarily a world. But listen, 0:33:05.400 --> 0:33:07.880 we will see in terms of right now, like what 0:33:08.000 --> 0:33:10.720 the major hot story I think is, it's what I 0:33:10.760 --> 0:33:14.000 mentioned before on Miami Dade County and the interim numbers 0:33:14.200 --> 0:33:17.040 coming out of Florida. With regards to Ron DeSantis, there's 0:33:17.080 --> 0:33:20.000 some current numbers do look like he may win, actually 0:33:20.040 --> 0:33:23.240 by almost ten percent, which is crazy when you consider 0:33:23.560 --> 0:33:27.440 how he barely won the gubernatorial election against Andrew Gillum. 0:33:27.480 --> 0:33:30.040 I mean, he almost didn't win the Republican primary until 0:33:30.040 --> 0:33:32.520 Trump came and endorse him, which is a different question 0:33:32.560 --> 0:33:34.200 which I think you will hear quite a bit about 0:33:34.200 --> 0:33:37.120 it if he does decide to run against Trump. Marco 0:33:37.200 --> 0:33:39.200 Rubio also, right now, we've got fifty percent of the 0:33:39.280 --> 0:33:42.280 vote in so far from Florida. He's up very comfortably 0:33:42.560 --> 0:33:45.680 over val Deemings. It wasn't necessarily a question in terms 0:33:45.720 --> 0:33:47.560 of any other races. If people are interested that have 0:33:47.600 --> 0:33:50.240 only been called we're going by the ap tonight everybody 0:33:50.320 --> 0:33:55.520 Kentucky ran, Paul officially re elected. Okay, big surprise, Tim 0:33:55.560 --> 0:33:59.080 Scott officially re elected there, and then Peter Welch winning 0:33:59.320 --> 0:34:01.800 in Vermont. The Tim Scott one just reminds me of 0:34:01.960 --> 0:34:05.280 one of my favorite stories around how exactly and how 0:34:05.360 --> 0:34:08.400 wrong the polls truly can be. Well, let's all remember 0:34:08.680 --> 0:34:12.440 Lindsey Graham in twenty twenty. Jamie Harrison was said to 0:34:12.520 --> 0:34:15.400 be within just one shot. He raised over one hundred 0:34:15.400 --> 0:34:19.080 million dollars only one point away. Jim Clyburn said that 0:34:19.160 --> 0:34:21.399 he could pull him across the finish line. He ended 0:34:21.480 --> 0:34:24.640 up winning by losing by seventeen points, which is almost 0:34:24.680 --> 0:34:27.319 the exact same margin as the person who ran against 0:34:27.360 --> 0:34:30.680 Lindsay Graham six years prior. So to have nearly a 0:34:30.680 --> 0:34:33.680 seventeen point wrong swing in the state of South Carolina, 0:34:33.880 --> 0:34:36.520 we should all prepare ourselves for results like that. I've 0:34:36.600 --> 0:34:38.680 rewarded him by making him dean. Yeah, that's right, they 0:34:38.760 --> 0:34:41.560 rewarded him by making him the DNC chair. I'm also 0:34:41.640 --> 0:34:44.320 really reminded whenever we're going to talk in the context 0:34:44.320 --> 0:34:47.840 in New Hampshire is Maine. I mean, we cannot forget 0:34:47.880 --> 0:34:52.360 Susan Collins outpaced by nine points to actually finish quite 0:34:52.400 --> 0:34:55.080 comfortably in the state of Maine, when she was considered 0:34:55.160 --> 0:35:00.160 an absolute goner on almost every statewide pole so called 0:35:00.320 --> 0:35:02.680 high quality. I was talking about this earlier today. I'm 0:35:02.680 --> 0:35:05.120 actually curious, Marshall Kyle, what you guys think. Why is 0:35:05.160 --> 0:35:09.680 it that we seem unable to properly pull non college 0:35:09.760 --> 0:35:12.680 educated whites. It is a story that is just does 0:35:12.760 --> 0:35:15.560 not seem solvable, like it seems at this point somebody 0:35:15.760 --> 0:35:19.280 would be able to properly wait some you know, formula, 0:35:19.400 --> 0:35:22.040 and yet since Donald Trump came on the ballot, Marshall, 0:35:22.280 --> 0:35:25.280 it has just not yet been possible, which is crazy 0:35:25.320 --> 0:35:27.200 for the people like us who have to sit here 0:35:27.239 --> 0:35:29.520 in prognosticators like listen, we have to bake it an 0:35:29.560 --> 0:35:32.839 assumption of complete, of completely being wrong in a way 0:35:32.840 --> 0:35:35.080 that we haven't in modern history in a long time. Yeah, 0:35:35.080 --> 0:35:37.280 And like you said, it's a new dynamic to politics, 0:35:37.280 --> 0:35:42.480 it hasn't been. It's hard because very well paid, very 0:35:42.520 --> 0:35:45.120 smart people have spent the last eight years it's literally 0:35:45.160 --> 0:35:47.400 focused on this issue, and it just seems like this 0:35:47.440 --> 0:35:48.759 is one of those categories where we're going to have 0:35:48.840 --> 0:35:51.439 to just factor this in for the next, our next 0:35:51.440 --> 0:35:53.120 eight years like this, this is kind of the story 0:35:53.120 --> 0:35:55.960 of the decade. Just how that gap between college educated 0:35:56.000 --> 0:35:58.120 and non college educated whites that's the center of politics 0:35:58.200 --> 0:36:01.000 right now. Yeah, what do you think Kyle Well Crystal 0:36:01.200 --> 0:36:03.319 was reading me earlier today, Remember the five thirty eight 0:36:03.400 --> 0:36:05.760 article from Nate Silver. He was like having an identity 0:36:05.760 --> 0:36:09.719 crisis and writing it down, explaining like, how do we 0:36:09.719 --> 0:36:11.680 weigh this thing versus how do we weigh that thing? 0:36:11.719 --> 0:36:13.080 How do you know, how do we make it work? 0:36:13.120 --> 0:36:15.799 And you know, look, the thing that really shook my 0:36:15.880 --> 0:36:21.000 faith massively was that typically in modern American history, you had, 0:36:21.080 --> 0:36:24.560 you know, there would be an advantage for the Democrats 0:36:24.560 --> 0:36:28.400 baked into the polls. But then it was the opposite 0:36:28.480 --> 0:36:31.839 in this these special elections that just happened. I think 0:36:31.840 --> 0:36:36.680 it was five House special elections post Dobbs correct, and 0:36:37.280 --> 0:36:38.960 it was the it was the exact opposite. And I 0:36:39.000 --> 0:36:41.719 was like, wait, what I always thought, either the polls 0:36:41.719 --> 0:36:45.319 are going to be like roughly accurate, or you're gonna 0:36:45.360 --> 0:36:48.680 have a baked in like four point Democratic advantage. But 0:36:49.640 --> 0:36:51.319 at this point, now this is my answer. Every time 0:36:51.320 --> 0:36:53.319 you lasted, I'm like, I don't know, I'm going off 0:36:53.360 --> 0:36:57.840 gut feeling. Now it literally, I know, it is so crazy. 0:36:57.840 --> 0:37:00.720 Here's a fun data point coming out from the Stacy 0:37:00.719 --> 0:37:04.680 Abrams currently running behind Warnock by eight points. So the 0:37:04.760 --> 0:37:09.400 Democratic dream Stacy Abrams raised, I mean tens of millions 0:37:09.400 --> 0:37:11.600 of dollars, became a massive star in her own right. 0:37:11.680 --> 0:37:14.840 Go ahead. Kemp stood up to Trump. Yes, he is 0:37:14.880 --> 0:37:16.920 not an election denier. Correct, And it looks like he's, 0:37:16.960 --> 0:37:19.080 if anything, he's being rewarded for that. You know what's funny, 0:37:19.160 --> 0:37:24.040 Kyle Trump. Trump actually endorsed him yesterday. To Trump. It 0:37:24.080 --> 0:37:26.160 was a quiet adment. Johnny came out. It was like, 0:37:26.640 --> 0:37:29.799 I give Brian Kemp my support. Why we all, you 0:37:29.840 --> 0:37:32.200 know what, because he's gonna win. So you see, I 0:37:32.239 --> 0:37:35.480 had the better even though I literally went to the 0:37:35.520 --> 0:37:38.240 state and said I would rather have Stacy as governor. 0:37:38.280 --> 0:37:40.440 After it looks like he's gonna win. Trump is behind me. 0:37:41.400 --> 0:37:44.880 I just want to say one thing about Stacy Abrams, 0:37:44.880 --> 0:37:48.359 who was really built up as like this next Democratic star, 0:37:48.560 --> 0:37:50.960 and there were, you know, glossy profiles written for her 0:37:50.960 --> 0:37:53.160 in the Washington Post photo shoots and all this stuff. 0:37:53.600 --> 0:37:56.919 Part of her mistique was that she had built this 0:37:57.200 --> 0:38:01.280 voter turnout operation in Georgia. That was the whole idea 0:38:01.360 --> 0:38:04.319 is like Stacy Abrams crack the code number. When Joe 0:38:04.360 --> 0:38:07.000 Biden wins Georgia by this narrow margin, and we're saying 0:38:07.000 --> 0:38:10.480 it's because of this voter turnout machine that Stacy Abrams 0:38:10.800 --> 0:38:13.400 was able to put together and focused on and what 0:38:13.440 --> 0:38:15.440 she did and listen, I'm not there. I don't know. 0:38:15.480 --> 0:38:18.279 Maybe it did make a difference ultimately, but she wasn't 0:38:18.320 --> 0:38:20.279 able to turn that machine on clearly in order to 0:38:20.280 --> 0:38:24.040 get herself sufficient votes to come close to defeating Brian Kemp. 0:38:24.080 --> 0:38:25.799 It's not over yet, it's not called, but doesn't look 0:38:25.800 --> 0:38:31.040 good for her when she's running so significantly behind Warnock ultimately. 0:38:31.680 --> 0:38:34.439 One other note on the Georgia race. This is from 0:38:34.800 --> 0:38:37.560 at Taniel O'Daniel Nasheniyan, who by the way, Bolts Magazine. 0:38:37.600 --> 0:38:39.480 You guys got to follow up support them if you can. 0:38:39.760 --> 0:38:42.160 They have a wonderful election cheat sheet with all of 0:38:42.200 --> 0:38:45.360 the ballot initiatives, everything that is at stake in this election. 0:38:45.480 --> 0:38:47.520 No matter they lean to the left. They focus a 0:38:47.560 --> 0:38:50.239 lot on criminal justice issues, but just in terms of information, 0:38:50.840 --> 0:38:53.440 totally second to then, So shout out to them. But 0:38:53.520 --> 0:38:56.759 he's saying that we now have an interesting data point 0:38:56.800 --> 0:38:59.720 from Georgia, which is that the libertarian candidate is only 0:38:59.760 --> 0:39:02.920 guard wondering about one point four percent. That's crazy. So 0:39:03.000 --> 0:39:06.719 that means that the Walker Warnock margin would have to 0:39:06.760 --> 0:39:10.520 be under whatever the libertarian candidate is getting in order 0:39:10.600 --> 0:39:13.600 to go to a runoff. So since the libertarian candidate 0:39:13.680 --> 0:39:16.120 is getting such a small proportion, that makes it less 0:39:16.160 --> 0:39:18.120 likely that it is ultimately going to go to a runoff. 0:39:18.120 --> 0:39:20.320 That's actually a fascinating point. Go ahead, Mark, Yeah, I 0:39:20.719 --> 0:39:24.480 want to build on the on the Warnock versus Stacy 0:39:24.560 --> 0:39:27.319 Abraham story because if you're looking at lessons for Democrats right, 0:39:27.400 --> 0:39:29.480 a lesson for Republicans we focus on tonight is, look, 0:39:29.480 --> 0:39:31.359 if you're gonna have an election denier, make sure they're 0:39:31.440 --> 0:39:37.040 television talent. If you're a Democrat operating in a purple 0:39:37.480 --> 0:39:40.799 to red state, you need to be able to not 0:39:40.920 --> 0:39:42.720 be a part of the national mood. And it seems 0:39:42.760 --> 0:39:45.799 to me the big mistake that Stacy Abrams has consistently 0:39:45.880 --> 0:39:48.880 made this is the mistake that also like nuke to 0:39:48.920 --> 0:39:51.400 her vice presidential one, like brought a twenty twenty chen, 0:39:51.480 --> 0:39:54.360 is she feels the need to jump into the national discourse. 0:39:54.600 --> 0:39:56.279 And I don't just mean like commenting on issues, but 0:39:56.360 --> 0:39:59.680 she just clearly is a national figure, and Warnock is 0:39:59.680 --> 0:40:02.399 not an political figure. Same thing goes for Mark Kelly, 0:40:02.560 --> 0:40:04.560 same thing goes for Fetterman. So if you're a Democrat 0:40:04.560 --> 0:40:06.960 in these types of states, you need to have a personality, 0:40:07.000 --> 0:40:09.080 which all three of those do, but you also just 0:40:09.120 --> 0:40:11.680 cannot be part of that national story. So I read 0:40:11.719 --> 0:40:13.719 it just a little bit differently. I mean, I agree 0:40:13.760 --> 0:40:16.120 with what you're saying, but the other thing is Georgia 0:40:16.280 --> 0:40:19.759 historically is a red state, and you have Warnock and 0:40:19.800 --> 0:40:23.360 Assoff pulled off the upset there recently. And when I 0:40:23.400 --> 0:40:26.840 look at Warnock, I think he has like every excuse 0:40:26.880 --> 0:40:29.520 in the world to go full Joe Mansion in full 0:40:29.640 --> 0:40:32.480 Kirston cinema, and he just didn't. He's actually been like 0:40:32.520 --> 0:40:35.279 a loyal vote for Biden. And I view that as 0:40:35.280 --> 0:40:38.920 almost like super serving the Democratic base. So the model 0:40:39.000 --> 0:40:42.480 going forward should be for Democrats like super serve your 0:40:42.480 --> 0:40:44.440 base and then maybe you'll have a shot even in 0:40:44.480 --> 0:40:47.160 an off year, as opposed to trying to please everybody 0:40:47.200 --> 0:40:49.200 like Joe Manchin and of course most importantly manched In 0:40:49.239 --> 0:40:52.000 cinema like to please their donors, but like trying to 0:40:52.040 --> 0:40:54.000 portray yourself as like, oh, I'm a Maverick and I'm 0:40:54.000 --> 0:40:56.719 an iconoclass and I could reach across the aisle. Sometimes 0:40:56.800 --> 0:40:58.480 voters sniff that out for what it is and it's 0:40:58.520 --> 0:41:00.320 really fake. And in the case of Warnock, he didn't 0:41:00.360 --> 0:41:02.400 do that, and perhaps he's getting rewarded for that. It's possible, 0:41:02.400 --> 0:41:03.920 you know. Mark Kelly is an interesting example too. He 0:41:04.000 --> 0:41:06.640 basically around ninety seven percent voting record with Biden, and 0:41:06.719 --> 0:41:09.799 yet like, how exactly does he maintain his credibility From 0:41:09.800 --> 0:41:11.640 what I have read, Really, what it is is that 0:41:11.680 --> 0:41:14.160 he's willing to depart with Biden on the border, He's 0:41:14.160 --> 0:41:16.279 willing to call him out locally. He grants a lot 0:41:16.280 --> 0:41:19.000 of interviews to the local This is where I just 0:41:19.000 --> 0:41:21.239 don't know, Marshall, Like how much of the whole all 0:41:21.320 --> 0:41:24.520 politics is local, all politics is national. But then guys 0:41:24.560 --> 0:41:26.719 like Kelly exist and you're like, hey, I mean he 0:41:26.800 --> 0:41:29.080 does well. I mean he didn't do particularly well in 0:41:29.120 --> 0:41:32.440 the debate, but like he gives interviews to like Arizona Central, 0:41:32.520 --> 0:41:34.560 and he makes sure that in the debate he's like 0:41:34.640 --> 0:41:37.560 I call on Joe Biden to like restore our board, 0:41:37.800 --> 0:41:40.840 but he doesn't ever do that whenever he's here in Washington. 0:41:41.080 --> 0:41:42.880 He doesn't go up to Manu Raju and the CNN 0:41:42.920 --> 0:41:45.400 cameras and we're like, I'm calling out Joe Biden here 0:41:45.480 --> 0:41:47.080 right out. But he does it in his heads and 0:41:47.160 --> 0:41:49.879 somehow it doesn't come across as fake. It's a very 0:41:49.880 --> 0:41:52.520 interesting story. There's something we kind of totally different topic. 0:41:52.600 --> 0:41:54.640 We kind of glossed over it, right with those Miami 0:41:54.719 --> 0:41:59.080 Dade numbers. What happened to Florida over the past twenty years? 0:41:59.560 --> 0:42:02.840 That's actually really like, it's not it's not it's not purple, 0:42:03.280 --> 0:42:06.080 it's red. You know, it's two thousand election. That's Florida. 0:42:06.120 --> 0:42:08.839 It's a state that Democrats we're very, very quite close 0:42:08.880 --> 0:42:11.360 to winning two thousand and eight. Like, what what do 0:42:11.400 --> 0:42:14.520 you guys think happened Avenue, Ohio? Yeah, I mean I 0:42:14.560 --> 0:42:17.279 have to think that it has a lot to do 0:42:17.360 --> 0:42:21.480 with the Latino swim swing too, Republicans. I mean, the 0:42:21.520 --> 0:42:24.560 Miami Dade numbers are a perfect indication of that, and 0:42:24.640 --> 0:42:28.640 especially I mean the Florida Latino community. Latino community tends 0:42:28.680 --> 0:42:31.759 to be more conservative because it's disproportionately in Cuban. So 0:42:32.000 --> 0:42:34.560 if I had to say what happened in Florida, I 0:42:34.600 --> 0:42:36.120 think that's got to be a significant part of it. 0:42:36.160 --> 0:42:39.600 I got one more for you too, the villages. That's 0:42:39.640 --> 0:42:41.600 what happened in the villages. You had all these retirees 0:42:41.640 --> 0:42:45.600 moving there, and there's a lot of boomers, a lot 0:42:45.600 --> 0:42:48.719 of a lot of QAnon faithful down there. One of 0:42:48.719 --> 0:42:51.720 all kinds of stuff. Rick Scott mister cut social Security 0:42:51.719 --> 0:42:54.279 as their senator. So it's a weird state. This is like, 0:42:54.320 --> 0:42:59.520 that's the get Rick's personal profile versus how he is 0:42:59.560 --> 0:43:01.799 in the state actually is again to the whole local thing. 0:43:01.880 --> 0:43:04.000 Like Rick actually speaks fluent Spanish, and he made like 0:43:04.040 --> 0:43:06.920 twelve trips to Puerto Rico whenever he was running. He 0:43:07.000 --> 0:43:09.160 made like Puerto Rico ad a big thing for him. 0:43:09.200 --> 0:43:11.839 I always found that kind of fascinating. I don't know, 0:43:12.080 --> 0:43:14.719 I'm curious for everybody before we all jump in at 0:43:14.840 --> 0:43:18.560 eight PM. A lot of DeSantis bros. Are blowing out 0:43:18.640 --> 0:43:21.160 about his numbers right now. So even my friend Michael 0:43:21.160 --> 0:43:23.839 Brennan Doherty, who generally is not one to go at this, 0:43:23.880 --> 0:43:27.600 he says, quote every political professional, GOP conservative Populace is 0:43:27.600 --> 0:43:30.360 going to look at these Florida numbers and want DeSantis 0:43:30.360 --> 0:43:33.960 as the twenty twenty four nominee. Noah Roffman also, to 0:43:34.040 --> 0:43:36.720 be clear, never Trump guy, but he says, quote Donald 0:43:36.760 --> 0:43:39.080 Trump has spent the last forty eight hours loosing unprovoked 0:43:39.080 --> 0:43:41.920 attacks on DeSantis. If DeSantis only response is a fifteen 0:43:41.920 --> 0:43:44.520 to twenty point statewide victory in Florida, I don't think 0:43:44.560 --> 0:43:46.880 that he needs any other What do you think, Marshall, 0:43:47.080 --> 0:43:50.040 there's a lot of this is this. You did a 0:43:50.080 --> 0:43:52.080 good job of picking two people who I don't think 0:43:52.120 --> 0:43:54.120 are coping. They're actually giving their they're given their real 0:43:54.280 --> 0:43:58.360 But these are stupid opinions, right, the notion that Republican voters, 0:43:58.600 --> 0:44:00.960 like the actual base of the republic voter is saying like, oh, 0:44:01.000 --> 0:44:03.440 look at those fifteen to twenty per but literally no 0:44:03.480 --> 0:44:05.879 one is choosing their twenty twenty Like, hey, Florida, any 0:44:06.040 --> 0:44:08.960 the Republican nominee in twenty twenty four is winning Florida. Yes, Like, 0:44:09.000 --> 0:44:10.920 that's the whole point of this conversation we just had. 0:44:11.160 --> 0:44:12.920 So that's not the debate. The debate and within the 0:44:12.960 --> 0:44:15.880 Republican Party is not like, hey, you know, can you 0:44:15.920 --> 0:44:19.040 win Florida? The debate is who do we want representing us? 0:44:19.040 --> 0:44:21.560 And from my perspective, you talk to any actual There's 0:44:21.600 --> 0:44:23.880 a great tweet on this where someone said people on 0:44:23.920 --> 0:44:27.400 Twitter who are standing for DeSantis right now over Trump 0:44:27.400 --> 0:44:29.960 are disproportioned with people who want to get jobs for 0:44:30.080 --> 0:44:33.480 DeSantis versus like actual Republican voters. Like, talk to any 0:44:33.520 --> 0:44:36.920 of your family members who are Trump people. They'll say DeSantis, 0:44:37.160 --> 0:44:39.920 nice guy. I like him, he can come in twenty 0:44:39.920 --> 0:44:42.839 twenty eight, twenty thirty two. He's young. I like Trump. Yeah, 0:44:43.440 --> 0:44:45.680 I haven't said edual debate and that Kyle has the 0:44:45.680 --> 0:44:48.880 difference of it. They really go ahead privately, having like 0:44:48.880 --> 0:44:53.560 several months now, it's here privately and publicly, so let's here. Look. 0:44:53.719 --> 0:44:57.320 I mean, bottom line is we're looking at the reality 0:44:57.600 --> 0:45:00.680 of a potential indictment for Donald Trump, and not only that, 0:45:00.800 --> 0:45:03.480 you might also look at a conviction for Donald Trump 0:45:03.480 --> 0:45:07.400 because he's got so many lawsuits. I mean I literally 0:45:07.440 --> 0:45:10.799 can't even name them all, that's how many there are. Yeah, 0:45:10.880 --> 0:45:12.640 he said, you know, you have the federal investigation in 0:45:12.719 --> 0:45:15.920 DC over the top secret and classified documents. You have, 0:45:16.120 --> 0:45:17.920 of course, the civil case in New York over all 0:45:17.960 --> 0:45:20.640 of his fraudulent business practices, and that press commons from 0:45:20.680 --> 0:45:22.799 Letitia James. If you haven't seen it, go watch it 0:45:22.840 --> 0:45:27.040 because it's amazing. Like the crimes she alleges are so specific, 0:45:27.080 --> 0:45:29.640 there's so much detail that it's mind blowing anyway, So 0:45:29.840 --> 0:45:33.000 there's all these different cases against Trump. I think an 0:45:33.000 --> 0:45:36.319 indictment is likely. I think conviction is possible. The only 0:45:36.320 --> 0:45:38.080 thing that we're really relying on in granted, this is 0:45:38.080 --> 0:45:41.160 difficult to do, but does Merrick Garland have a pair? 0:45:41.400 --> 0:45:42.880 If he has a pair and he does what he's 0:45:42.880 --> 0:45:46.960 supposed to do. Look, I'm very critical of the Republican 0:45:47.000 --> 0:45:50.360 Party and the Republican base, but you know, Chris and 0:45:50.440 --> 0:45:52.319 I were debating this the other day. Can Donald Trump 0:45:52.360 --> 0:45:55.080 win the Republican primary from prison? I'm a hard no 0:45:55.280 --> 0:45:59.840 on that. I think that it would be Gavis definitely 0:46:00.120 --> 0:46:02.520 not only win, he would win bigger than if he 0:46:02.600 --> 0:46:06.160 was in disagree. I disagree on it. One big thing 0:46:06.160 --> 0:46:08.840 to respond to this on we kind of had attest 0:46:08.840 --> 0:46:11.319 to this already, which is that when when the mar 0:46:11.400 --> 0:46:16.319 Lago raid happened, every single Republican who given everything you 0:46:16.360 --> 0:46:18.839 just start to believe what you just said right, every 0:46:18.880 --> 0:46:21.680 single establishment Republican in the back of their head is like, yeah, 0:46:21.719 --> 0:46:24.719 this is obviously not good. This is definitely bad. They 0:46:24.760 --> 0:46:28.440 wouldn't privately defend it, but they fell on their sports 0:46:28.440 --> 0:46:31.120 for heading time desatus. So when every single time they've 0:46:31.120 --> 0:46:34.239 had an opportunity to implement what you've described, they haven't 0:46:34.239 --> 0:46:36.160 gone for it. I do not see a word of 0:46:36.239 --> 0:46:38.200 Rhonda Santis gets on the debate stage and says, you 0:46:38.200 --> 0:46:40.080 know what, Donald, we both You're gonna be in prison 0:46:40.160 --> 0:46:41.960 this time next year. You're not gonna do the nom 0:46:42.080 --> 0:46:43.359 He needs to do that, don't you need to do 0:46:43.480 --> 0:46:46.040 Look we're talking short term, long term too. I mean, 0:46:46.120 --> 0:46:48.239 I saw the numbers right after that raid. I saw 0:46:48.280 --> 0:46:50.800 that they went up for Trump. But I think it's 0:46:51.160 --> 0:46:53.040 it's a little fake in the long run, in the 0:46:53.080 --> 0:46:55.440 same way that an investigation into Hillary Clinton by the 0:46:55.520 --> 0:46:57.800 FBI didn't help her in the twenty sixteen race. I 0:46:57.800 --> 0:46:59.960 don't think this helps Trump in any way, shape or four. 0:47:00.080 --> 0:47:02.600 And I think in many ways, like the chances of 0:47:02.680 --> 0:47:06.680 him winning becoming president again after everything that's already gone 0:47:06.719 --> 0:47:13.160 on zero. Absolutely get oubliterate everybody, by everybody, by anybody, 0:47:13.200 --> 0:47:18.000 by anybody, Americans. They're over it. Americans are over it. 0:47:18.040 --> 0:47:19.840 I get you have your little clique of thirty percent. 0:47:19.960 --> 0:47:22.480 That's just absolutely psychotic for you. Great, have fun with that. 0:47:22.520 --> 0:47:26.920 Try winning a national election on that's not that's the problem. 0:47:27.560 --> 0:47:29.880 But there are real outside repeal in twenty sixteen. I 0:47:29.920 --> 0:47:33.200 think there are two totally different questions there. One is 0:47:33.239 --> 0:47:35.520 the general election. Let's put that to the side, because 0:47:35.560 --> 0:47:43.319 I do think if he's in prison, I think it's 0:47:43.320 --> 0:47:49.879 a better Republican primary electorate. They're his I mean, he's 0:47:49.920 --> 0:47:53.080 announcing in like eight as it's done, and Ron de 0:47:53.160 --> 0:47:57.480 Santa is like he immediately vent they the moment, and 0:47:57.520 --> 0:47:59.640 that's the same thing that's going to happen. Trump is 0:47:59.640 --> 0:48:03.000 gonna then he's probably going to get indicted, and it's 0:48:03.040 --> 0:48:04.840 going to be another moment where they all have to 0:48:04.920 --> 0:48:07.080 rally to him. And then what I mean, you've already 0:48:07.080 --> 0:48:10.720 filed for presidency and Ron DeSantis has never done anything 0:48:10.760 --> 0:48:13.640 other than these little sort of like you know, subtweet 0:48:13.800 --> 0:48:16.600 jabs at Trump. The minute you come directly for him, 0:48:16.600 --> 0:48:19.239 it is a totally different one. Second, guys, we do 0:48:19.320 --> 0:48:21.439 have our people on standby. I'm just going to gohead 0:48:21.440 --> 0:48:23.320 and tell the crew. Let's go ahead and get Lewis 0:48:23.400 --> 0:48:26.840 ready from oz HQ. I believe because I know that 0:48:27.160 --> 0:48:29.560 we are there, all right, so we actually have him. 0:48:29.719 --> 0:48:31.080 We have him ready, all right, Let's go ahead and 0:48:31.120 --> 0:48:35.000 bring him in if we can. Okay, Lewis, how are 0:48:35.040 --> 0:48:37.640 you so? This is Louis Angels. He's the Doctor OZ event. 0:48:38.160 --> 0:48:40.200 Thank you very much for our premium SUBJT enabled to 0:48:40.320 --> 0:48:42.279 be there, Lewis. Give us a sense. What's going on 0:48:42.280 --> 0:48:44.839 on the ground. You're there at Doctor oz HQ. What's 0:48:44.880 --> 0:48:48.880 the feeling. Poles are closing very soon? What are you seeing? Absolutely? 0:48:48.880 --> 0:48:51.239 Thanks for having me on. Guys. Excited to be here. Yep, 0:48:51.320 --> 0:48:53.960 I'm here at the Doctor OZ event. The last couple 0:48:53.960 --> 0:48:57.440 of days have been across the state. Came in on Saturday, 0:48:57.520 --> 0:49:01.400 first thing in Pittsburgh. We headed over to the Donald 0:49:01.400 --> 0:49:04.200 Trump event that was going on there. Sunday we were 0:49:04.200 --> 0:49:07.000 at the Bernie Sanders event that was taking place in Pittsburgh. 0:49:07.200 --> 0:49:09.120 Monday night we were at a John Fetterman event, so 0:49:09.160 --> 0:49:11.080 we really, you know, talked to all sorts of people 0:49:11.400 --> 0:49:14.560 all over the place. May I drew the short stick 0:49:14.600 --> 0:49:17.240 and had to drive over from from Pittsburgh this morning 0:49:17.320 --> 0:49:21.520 and May the six hour checkover. But we made it. Yes, yeah, yeah, 0:49:21.560 --> 0:49:23.640 no problem, no problem. Holdough, I'm a little upset. I 0:49:23.719 --> 0:49:25.960 was expecting there to be potentially some crew to take here. 0:49:26.080 --> 0:49:29.960 None yet, I hosted. If that changes, we'll play, We'll see. 0:49:30.120 --> 0:49:35.920 But yes, thank you. I've been saving that one. You know, 0:49:36.480 --> 0:49:38.600 since you talked to voters who were clearly, you know, 0:49:38.719 --> 0:49:41.440 very enthusiastic about doctor Oz, or at least voting for him, 0:49:41.480 --> 0:49:44.600 very enthusiastic about Fetterman, did you see a difference in 0:49:44.719 --> 0:49:48.640 terms of, you know, how they were viewing the key issues. 0:49:49.480 --> 0:49:51.440 One thing I noted from some of the coverage that 0:49:51.480 --> 0:49:54.000 you all at status Ku had sent us is the 0:49:54.040 --> 0:49:57.719 Fetterman voters talked a lot about doctor Oz's character. The 0:49:58.160 --> 0:50:01.640 Oz voters talked more about you know, inflation, crime, immigration. 0:50:01.719 --> 0:50:04.719 They had sort of like big picture national issues in mind. 0:50:04.800 --> 0:50:06.640 Was that a sort of consistent theme with the voters 0:50:06.680 --> 0:50:10.160 that you spoke with. I would say that's fairly consistent. Yes. 0:50:10.880 --> 0:50:12.479 One thing that I noted that I was a little 0:50:12.480 --> 0:50:16.880 bit surprised about, you know, from Afar looking online online, 0:50:16.960 --> 0:50:20.240 Fetterman looks like the campaign has tons of energy behind 0:50:20.280 --> 0:50:23.759 it and everything in person, I haven't seen it as much. 0:50:24.040 --> 0:50:26.480 If I'm being honest, when you compare Saturday night at 0:50:26.520 --> 0:50:29.839 the Trump event and the energy that was there, some 0:50:29.880 --> 0:50:32.359 of it, I'll be it crazy, but there's definitely an 0:50:32.520 --> 0:50:35.400 energy around all of that movement still. And then you 0:50:35.440 --> 0:50:38.759 compare it to on Sunday. The Bernie Sanders event that 0:50:38.800 --> 0:50:41.600 I was at was directly across the street from a 0:50:41.640 --> 0:50:45.400 big college in Pittsburgh, dorms right across the street. There 0:50:45.480 --> 0:50:47.879 were maybe four or five hundred people there. The park 0:50:47.960 --> 0:50:51.040 wasn't even close to full, and that was surprising to me. 0:50:51.080 --> 0:50:54.880 I mean, Bernie Sanders and college students, that's his easy 0:50:54.920 --> 0:50:57.480 demographic to get them over there, and they weren't showing up. 0:50:57.480 --> 0:51:00.319 And then again last night at the Fetterman event, same 0:51:00.400 --> 0:51:02.200 kind of deal. It was a little bit further out 0:51:02.200 --> 0:51:05.799 of Pittsburgh, but the turnout was really not not what 0:51:05.840 --> 0:51:08.479 I was expecting. The energy was fairly low. I will 0:51:08.480 --> 0:51:12.279 say Fetterman's speech last night was probably the best I 0:51:12.320 --> 0:51:16.680 had heard him speaking so far, but unfortunately I think 0:51:16.680 --> 0:51:19.480 that might be a little too little, too late. That's interesting. 0:51:19.520 --> 0:51:21.200 That's why it's so valuable to have you on the ground. 0:51:21.200 --> 0:51:22.759 You know, it's not something that we can really get 0:51:22.960 --> 0:51:24.839 a sense of you know, in the interviews and stuff 0:51:24.840 --> 0:51:26.080 that you were giving for us, it was a lot 0:51:26.080 --> 0:51:29.480 of national talk about inflation from the gopeople. Have you 0:51:29.480 --> 0:51:31.640 talked to any swing voters? I'm curious, like any people. 0:51:31.880 --> 0:51:33.520 First of all, let's be clear. Some people say the 0:51:33.560 --> 0:51:35.319 swing voters, but then they're like, I would never vote 0:51:35.320 --> 0:51:39.600 for xmy life. But any actual swing voters in your estimation, 0:51:40.160 --> 0:51:41.920 maybe the people who made up their mind in the 0:51:42.000 --> 0:51:43.880 last couple of days. What are they saying? What is 0:51:43.880 --> 0:51:47.160 at the top of their mind? For sure. So a 0:51:47.200 --> 0:51:49.080 couple of people that I spoke to that were interesting, 0:51:49.120 --> 0:51:51.000 And then a couple of folks I spoke to outside 0:51:51.040 --> 0:51:52.600 while the press were waiting in line to get in 0:51:52.680 --> 0:51:55.799 here today said that anecdotally they had heard this a 0:51:55.800 --> 0:52:02.680 lot too. The Oz Shapiro vot exists in decent number. 0:52:02.760 --> 0:52:06.879 I would say, wow, yeah, yeah, and I heard again. 0:52:06.920 --> 0:52:08.560 I had the six hour car ride today, so I 0:52:08.640 --> 0:52:11.040 listened to your show from yesterday just to see what 0:52:11.080 --> 0:52:13.040 you all were talking about, and I heard one of 0:52:13.080 --> 0:52:14.440 you at one point say that you didn't think that 0:52:14.440 --> 0:52:16.200 that was gonna be a thing, And I was actually surprised. 0:52:16.280 --> 0:52:19.640 Yesterday I've met two of them myself just on the street. 0:52:20.520 --> 0:52:23.480 You know, it's one thing doing interviews with people on 0:52:23.560 --> 0:52:26.319 camera and everything. It's a whole other thing in the Uber, 0:52:26.560 --> 0:52:29.040 you know, talking to the hotel front desk person. And 0:52:29.080 --> 0:52:30.680 I feel like I've learned a lot more doing that 0:52:30.719 --> 0:52:33.600 sort of thing. I've got one good anecdote from an 0:52:33.640 --> 0:52:37.520 Uber driver. He was like a self described conservative, and 0:52:37.600 --> 0:52:39.400 he was the first person actually to tell me that 0:52:39.480 --> 0:52:41.400 he was a you know, somebody who's gonna vote for Oz. 0:52:41.680 --> 0:52:44.560 But to him, Mastriano was a little too out there. 0:52:45.480 --> 0:52:48.240 He said that Oz kind of wrote the line well 0:52:48.400 --> 0:52:52.680 on the issue of abortion. This gentleman was a self 0:52:52.719 --> 0:52:57.160 described pro life, but he says that, you know, a 0:52:57.160 --> 0:52:59.799 lot of the Republicans running nationally have gone too far, 0:53:00.400 --> 0:53:03.520 and that doctor Oz is kind of, you know, written 0:53:03.600 --> 0:53:07.200 the more moderate line, if you will, and kind of 0:53:07.600 --> 0:53:09.719 making more compromise. Maybe not moderate, it might not be 0:53:09.760 --> 0:53:12.480 the right word, but that he's a little bit open 0:53:12.520 --> 0:53:17.160 to the compromise. Okay, Yeah, very interesting stuff. Cool. Thank 0:53:17.200 --> 0:53:19.120 you so much. We're going to check back in with 0:53:19.239 --> 0:53:21.520 you later, keep us posted, stay in touch, and let 0:53:21.640 --> 0:53:23.800 us know what you were seeing there on the ground. 0:53:23.800 --> 0:53:27.600 Than we really appreciate it absolutely, Thank you for pleasure. Okay, 0:53:27.680 --> 0:53:30.279 so I think we have the next guy who is up. 0:53:30.440 --> 0:53:33.120 Let's go ahead and see control room if we good 0:53:33.480 --> 0:53:36.239 John to go at the fetterment event. All right, we're 0:53:36.239 --> 0:53:42.279 not gonnat anything for so okay, John at the fan event. 0:53:42.360 --> 0:53:46.719 Great to see you, John, Welcome, Thank you. So just 0:53:46.719 --> 0:53:48.799 give us a little bit of a vibes check there 0:53:49.040 --> 0:53:51.400 and what you have heard from voters while you're on 0:53:51.440 --> 0:53:58.200 the ground. So, uh, people haven't actually started coming into 0:53:58.280 --> 0:54:03.560 the the uh to hear the arena, it's mostly just 0:54:03.640 --> 0:54:06.640 pressing staff. I guess they'll sell letting people in in 0:54:06.680 --> 0:54:10.880 a few minutes around eight. Uh. I haven't spoke with 0:54:10.920 --> 0:54:14.120 anybody outside here, but you know I was with Lewis 0:54:14.239 --> 0:54:19.640 this whole weekend and and yesterday. Basically a lot of 0:54:19.680 --> 0:54:23.120 people are are looking forward to voting for Frediman. Haven't 0:54:23.160 --> 0:54:27.600 really spoke with any odd supporters except at the Trump rally. 0:54:29.360 --> 0:54:32.440 You know they're not they're not as excited for Oz, 0:54:32.600 --> 0:54:35.319 but you know they're going with him because Trump is 0:54:35.480 --> 0:54:38.800 endorsing him, basically, got it. Uh. So you know whoever, 0:54:38.840 --> 0:54:42.400 whoever Trump's Trump's going with, they're they're going with you know, 0:54:42.560 --> 0:54:47.200 and uh, you know, actually speak with uh some people 0:54:47.520 --> 0:54:52.359 at the health low a seconds, No problem, John, It's 0:54:52.400 --> 0:54:58.040 all good. Am I here, John, We're gonna we're gonna 0:54:58.080 --> 0:54:59.560 check back in with you later in the night when 0:54:59.640 --> 0:55:01.680 folks are arriving there and we start to get some 0:55:01.840 --> 0:55:03.840 whole results so we can see what is going on 0:55:03.880 --> 0:55:05.799 there on the ground. Thank you so much for taking 0:55:05.840 --> 0:55:08.319 the time with us. And by the way, guys, both 0:55:08.360 --> 0:55:12.200 of these folks are with Status kup. They enable all 0:55:12.200 --> 0:55:15.600 of our on the ground reporting. Actually, you guys, Freemium 0:55:15.600 --> 0:55:19.040 subscribers enable that reminder ten percent discount. It's in the description. 0:55:19.120 --> 0:55:21.720 Give it ascription, but also make sure you give status 0:55:21.760 --> 0:55:23.919 kup a follow because they're doing great work and it's 0:55:24.239 --> 0:55:27.000 very expensive to travel around the country and they are 0:55:27.040 --> 0:55:29.680 doing that work which really benefits us and benefits the 0:55:29.840 --> 0:55:32.680 entire independent media service system. Yeah, it really does help 0:55:32.719 --> 0:55:34.399 to you know, to have those guys. They travel all 0:55:34.440 --> 0:55:37.320 over and you know, Louis in particular finding those interviews 0:55:37.320 --> 0:55:38.960 and he filmed some of that stuff for us that 0:55:39.000 --> 0:55:41.320 we played on the show, which was really really valuable. 0:55:41.320 --> 0:55:44.600 So look seven fifty five, everybody, if things are going 0:55:44.680 --> 0:55:47.920 to close five minutes, it's interesting. Let me make it now, 0:55:48.120 --> 0:55:49.680 go ahead. Yeah, I was going to say, let me 0:55:49.719 --> 0:55:53.720 give you the numbers where they're at with a small 0:55:53.760 --> 0:55:56.759 percentage of the vote in, which means these numbers are 0:55:56.800 --> 0:55:59.279 not representative of the entire state. But I just want 0:55:59.320 --> 0:56:00.719 to give you a little bit of a sense of 0:56:00.760 --> 0:56:03.160 where things are right now early in the night. So 0:56:03.160 --> 0:56:05.840 if we look at Florida, which actually, according to New 0:56:05.920 --> 0:56:09.839 York Times, has seventy one percent of votes in, so, yeah, 0:56:09.920 --> 0:56:12.200 decent percentage of the state. And I'm just talking Senate 0:56:12.280 --> 0:56:15.520 right now, Rubio is up on val Deming's fifty five 0:56:15.640 --> 0:56:17.560 to forty four. I'd say that's roughly in the ballpark 0:56:17.560 --> 0:56:21.040 of what we're kind of expected there. Over in Georgia 0:56:21.160 --> 0:56:23.360 right now, you only have twenty two percent of the 0:56:23.440 --> 0:56:25.839 vote in, so that is still extremely early. So these 0:56:25.920 --> 0:56:28.600 numbers will definitely change, will definitely tighten up. But you've 0:56:28.640 --> 0:56:32.359 got Warnock at fifty eight percent to herschel Walker at 0:56:32.520 --> 0:56:34.880 forty percent. That again is with according to the New 0:56:34.920 --> 0:56:37.840 York Times, twenty two percent of the vote in. You 0:56:37.960 --> 0:56:41.560 have in North Carolina the Democrat. This is with forty 0:56:41.600 --> 0:56:45.400 two percent of the vote in. Not sure what parts 0:56:45.440 --> 0:56:47.680 of the state but again these numbers will definitely change. 0:56:47.760 --> 0:56:50.520 You have the Democrat Sherry Beasley up fifty five percent 0:56:50.560 --> 0:56:53.399 to Ted Budd forty three percent. Hashtag stop the count. 0:56:54.719 --> 0:56:58.600 Over in Ohio you have just six percent in and 0:56:58.680 --> 0:57:02.279 again Tim Ryan up sixty two. JD Vans thirty eight 0:57:02.520 --> 0:57:04.960 very early, definitely going to change. And then you have 0:57:05.120 --> 0:57:07.520 over in New Hampshire. This is one that Democrats got 0:57:07.600 --> 0:57:11.480 super nervous about super late. And by the way, this 0:57:11.640 --> 0:57:14.160 is also a state where they decided to spend a 0:57:14.160 --> 0:57:16.800 bunch of money trying to make sure that a psycho 0:57:16.840 --> 0:57:20.320 election denier got the nomination on the Republican side. Now 0:57:20.360 --> 0:57:23.560 that guy is in striking distance of actually winning a 0:57:23.560 --> 0:57:26.160 Senate seat. Way to go, guys. Anyway, at this point, 0:57:26.240 --> 0:57:28.600 Maggie Hassen does have the lead, that is, with a 0:57:28.680 --> 0:57:31.320 mere ten percent of votes in. She's at sixty three 0:57:31.360 --> 0:57:34.720 percent and Don Baldock election denier as at thirty five percent. Ye, 0:57:34.800 --> 0:57:38.720 we'll endorsed, by the way, that's right. What's interesting about 0:57:38.720 --> 0:57:42.320 Baldock is that, as I'm sayg earlier in our last show, 0:57:42.360 --> 0:57:44.720 there is no early voting in New Hampshire, like, not 0:57:45.080 --> 0:57:48.320 even close. So the election result is much more reflection 0:57:48.360 --> 0:57:51.600 of the electorate today as opposed to let's say two weeks, 0:57:51.760 --> 0:57:54.640 three weeks. It could have some given the fact that 0:57:54.640 --> 0:57:57.480 things were narrowing and moving much more in Republican direction. 0:57:57.720 --> 0:58:00.720 Everybody always talks about momentum and like whether that matters 0:58:00.840 --> 0:58:03.160 or not. I tend to think especially less in the 0:58:03.160 --> 0:58:06.400 democratic context, given mail in balloting and the way that 0:58:06.520 --> 0:58:09.280 the chang is generally nationally. But to have that dynamic 0:58:09.360 --> 0:58:11.800 in New Hampshire is pretty interesting, Marshall. And one thing 0:58:11.800 --> 0:58:14.160 I want to bring up that came through the correspondence. 0:58:14.160 --> 0:58:16.600 I can't believe we haven't talked about this. Was Trump 0:58:16.680 --> 0:58:20.000 a positive or a negative on the trail this year? Right? 0:58:20.040 --> 0:58:23.160 Because he was. He made the point that people, if 0:58:23.160 --> 0:58:25.000 you're at that, you know Trump show, and I think 0:58:25.000 --> 0:58:27.080 that's the way to describe it. You're definitely there for Trump, 0:58:27.360 --> 0:58:29.320 not for Oz. But there's a lot of controversy of 0:58:29.520 --> 0:58:31.840 like is Trump going to announce a few days ago? 0:58:32.240 --> 0:58:34.280 Is Trump starting off? It's really a big deal. So 0:58:34.280 --> 0:58:38.320 where did we come to on positive or negative? I mean, oh, 0:58:38.480 --> 0:58:43.080 my opinion is overall negative because he's the reason why 0:58:43.120 --> 0:58:47.160 Republicans have such poor candidates, especially walk Many of these races. 0:58:47.360 --> 0:58:51.240 I means is him Walker is him? Didn't he like 0:58:51.360 --> 0:58:55.240 Masters is him? And not only that, but then when 0:58:55.240 --> 0:58:58.360 you look at the number of like Trump is stopped 0:58:58.400 --> 0:59:01.080 the steal. And so when you have all these election deniers, 0:59:01.080 --> 0:59:04.400 people like Masterrano, I mean, there's no reason Republicans shouldn't 0:59:04.400 --> 0:59:08.080 be winning the Pennsylvania governor's race this year in Mastrano 0:59:08.200 --> 0:59:10.480 very likely to lose. So when you look at the 0:59:10.480 --> 0:59:13.240 way that he shaped the candidate field and made it 0:59:13.520 --> 0:59:17.120 much poor quality, I think you have to say he's 0:59:17.120 --> 0:59:19.000 an etneg to be fair, though you know, I think 0:59:19.040 --> 0:59:21.560 Mastriano he didn't endorse him until like two days before 0:59:21.600 --> 0:59:24.440 because Mostreiano was just gonna win. So it's really Trump. 0:59:24.440 --> 0:59:27.680 There's no January sixth, there is no election to stop 0:59:27.720 --> 0:59:30.120 the steal. So when I look at that holistically, you 0:59:30.200 --> 0:59:32.440 have to say, like, you know, Kyle and I were 0:59:32.440 --> 0:59:34.360 talking about this Earli, you should actually make this point, Kyle, 0:59:34.400 --> 0:59:36.520 because I'm just stealing it from you. But right now 0:59:36.520 --> 0:59:38.560 you have a bunch of Republicans who are elected, who 0:59:38.680 --> 0:59:40.800 go along with a bunch of nonsense but do not 0:59:40.920 --> 0:59:42.800 really believe it. You're about to have a lot of 0:59:42.880 --> 0:59:45.960 people who are actuallyable believers, right, and that's that is 0:59:46.040 --> 0:59:48.680 kind of scary. Yeah, I mean, I think it's they're 0:59:48.720 --> 0:59:53.040 in an impossible place right now because you can't really 0:59:53.760 --> 0:59:55.880 win a Republican primary. You're more likely to win a 0:59:55.880 --> 0:59:57.960 Republican primary if you have Trump's acting, but then you're 0:59:57.960 --> 1:00:00.680 definitely less likely to win the general because you're not 1:00:00.680 --> 1:00:02.360 going to get the independence. You're not going to get 1:00:02.360 --> 1:00:04.280 the moderates, you're not going to get the normies, you're 1:00:04.280 --> 1:00:05.760 not going to get the young voters. You're not going 1:00:05.800 --> 1:00:09.320 to get the women. You're not going to get them exactly. 1:00:09.360 --> 1:00:11.080 He's the only one who's like bucking the trend. But 1:00:11.360 --> 1:00:14.800 generally speaking, yeah, it's difficult. It's it's difficult for these candidates, 1:00:14.840 --> 1:00:17.080 and it's sort of like, you know, a deal with 1:00:17.120 --> 1:00:19.000 the devil effectively, like you'll get me through the primary, 1:00:19.000 --> 1:00:20.720 then I'll hit a brick wall in the general. Thanks, coach. 1:00:20.720 --> 1:00:22.360 You know what's the crazy thing is that carry? You know? 1:00:22.520 --> 1:00:25.000 Trump said today that he'll be announcing his VP pick 1:00:25.160 --> 1:00:27.040 very soon. I think it's going to be Carrie Lake. 1:00:27.160 --> 1:00:30.880 I really do. You know he loves the one thing 1:00:30.960 --> 1:00:33.280 I because I was thinking about this earlier because I 1:00:33.320 --> 1:00:36.040 bought that. I buy that too. I think he really 1:00:36.160 --> 1:00:40.360 likes her, but he also needs her there. Yeah, you know, 1:00:40.520 --> 1:00:43.400 like it's there's a it's important for him to have 1:00:43.480 --> 1:00:46.200 his election denial people in place for next time around 1:00:46.200 --> 1:00:47.920 to make sure it can swing in his director. I don't. 1:00:47.920 --> 1:00:51.000 I also don't believe him because I think of I 1:00:51.040 --> 1:00:53.360 hate doing the whole like think of the apprentices. I 1:00:53.480 --> 1:00:56.640 think of Trump. But why would Trump declare his VP 1:00:57.320 --> 1:01:00.160 VP candidates so early? Like it should be a thing, 1:01:00.200 --> 1:01:03.120 It should be entertaining, There should be auditions in trouts 1:01:03.120 --> 1:01:06.320 and look, Carrie Lake, Carrie Lake could totally fall in 1:01:06.360 --> 1:01:09.360 her face. Oh yeah, totally fall in her face. If 1:01:09.360 --> 1:01:12.040 there was an environment where Carrie Lake was going to succeed. 1:01:12.400 --> 1:01:16.160 It's charismatic as how Carrie Lake against a mediocre Democrat 1:01:16.440 --> 1:01:19.840 during a red tsunami election, she can get into office 1:01:19.880 --> 1:01:22.760 when voters aren't purely thinking of inflations. It's not as 1:01:22.840 --> 1:01:25.800 much like the governor's issue as much and totally fall flat. 1:01:25.800 --> 1:01:27.520 So I just I think I think Trump is not 1:01:27.520 --> 1:01:29.320 true true about that. You might be right. Okay, it's 1:01:29.360 --> 1:01:31.600 eight oh one pm here on the East Coast, So 1:01:31.640 --> 1:01:39.840 here are the polls where they have closed Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Kansas, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, 1:01:40.040 --> 1:01:45.200 New Jersey, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania, oh Boy Rhode Island, 1:01:45.360 --> 1:01:50.400 South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, and here in Washington, d C. So, Pennsylvania, 1:01:50.440 --> 1:01:53.000 obviously that's going to be the one that we're all watching. 1:01:53.400 --> 1:01:56.600 I don't know, I'm I really am fascinated to see 1:01:56.680 --> 1:01:59.280 how it all comes out. Reminder that the Pennsylvania Secretary 1:01:59.320 --> 1:02:01.240 of State has all already come out and said that 1:02:01.400 --> 1:02:03.480 we are not going to likely to know the results 1:02:03.480 --> 1:02:06.280 for several days there, So everybody hold on to your hats, 1:02:06.520 --> 1:02:09.400 especially if it is as close as people are indicating 1:02:09.600 --> 1:02:13.000 some early vote numbers coming out some place in the Midwest. 1:02:13.000 --> 1:02:15.920 They already called the race for Todd Young winning his 1:02:16.200 --> 1:02:19.560 reelection in Indiana. Ohio, We've only got nine percent of 1:02:19.560 --> 1:02:22.360 the vote that's come in there right now. Connecticut they've 1:02:22.360 --> 1:02:25.800 called the race for Richard Blumenthal. Literally the moment the 1:02:25.800 --> 1:02:27.919 polls closed, they went ahead and called the race. Peter 1:02:28.000 --> 1:02:31.360 Welsh also News Center that we in Vermont, they went 1:02:31.400 --> 1:02:33.280 ahead and they called that for him, and then Maryland, 1:02:33.360 --> 1:02:36.200 Chris van Holland winning his reelection in Maryland. Basically no 1:02:36.960 --> 1:02:40.360 major upset there. James got there, so they go ahead. 1:02:40.400 --> 1:02:41.760 I don't know if you mentioned this yet, but they 1:02:41.840 --> 1:02:45.240 called Florida for DeSantis and Rubio. Yes, so they did that. 1:02:45.280 --> 1:02:47.040 And then also, this is going back about twenty minutes 1:02:47.120 --> 1:02:48.640 or so, but I want to bring it up. Marjorie 1:02:48.640 --> 1:02:51.120 Taylor Green has officially been reelected. Oh well, you know, 1:02:51.400 --> 1:02:53.560 that's a great question in terms that's a good example 1:02:53.600 --> 1:02:55.680 in terms of these scam or it's not scam candidates. 1:02:55.680 --> 1:02:58.919 But you know, she believes, she believes. I'm not saying 1:02:58.960 --> 1:03:01.760 to hurt the person running a answer that raised some 1:03:01.880 --> 1:03:05.120 fifteen million dollars. That's as It's like those Republicans are 1:03:05.160 --> 1:03:07.160 run against AOC, we don't have a chance in hell, 1:03:07.160 --> 1:03:09.240 and they end up raising like twenty million. So if 1:03:09.280 --> 1:03:10.920 you're one of those people, don't fall for one of 1:03:10.920 --> 1:03:13.280 those ads. He was like, I'm gonna take on Margie 1:03:13.320 --> 1:03:16.480 Taylor Green is ilhan Omar wins re election by seventy 1:03:16.520 --> 1:03:20.240 three percent. People like, it's not hers. The race is 1:03:20.240 --> 1:03:23.720 actually pretty like your scare candidate ads with their problem. 1:03:23.720 --> 1:03:26.560 I think Marshall, no TV ads at all and she 1:03:26.600 --> 1:03:32.280 almost lost the cameral sauce no republics. I'm talking about 1:03:32.280 --> 1:03:34.560 the oppositional candidate. It's not in the pro fair enough. 1:03:34.600 --> 1:03:38.120 So I have some interesting numbers out of Kentucky where 1:03:38.120 --> 1:03:43.560 they have an anti abortion ballot initiative. Voters are are 1:03:43.600 --> 1:03:46.880 also casting ballots on So this is again from Daniel 1:03:46.920 --> 1:03:49.360 and Shaneyan a Bolts magazine. He says that the pro 1:03:49.560 --> 1:03:53.360 choice side in Kentucky has a chance to defeat the 1:03:53.400 --> 1:03:57.200 anti abortion referendum. So it's it's early, only ten percent 1:03:57.240 --> 1:04:00.680 reporting Rand Paul, who's already been declared the winner based 1:04:00.680 --> 1:04:02.280 on what they have been so far. But he leads 1:04:02.280 --> 1:04:06.000 fifty seven to forty three. But the anti abortion referendum 1:04:06.040 --> 1:04:09.880 is actually down by ten points. We saw this reserve 1:04:10.480 --> 1:04:12.520 so huge divite. I mean that means you have a 1:04:12.600 --> 1:04:15.800 huge percentage of the kentuckt population that is like yes 1:04:15.840 --> 1:04:19.120 to Ran Paul, no to this anti abortion referendum. So 1:04:20.000 --> 1:04:21.800 is absolutely fascinating. So let's dig in a little bit 1:04:21.840 --> 1:04:24.200 to the DeSantis numbers. Everybody calling it now here guys, 1:04:24.240 --> 1:04:26.800 he is at fifty seven percent of the vote. Well, 1:04:27.040 --> 1:04:29.520 Charlie Christ at forty two. This is with seventy three 1:04:29.880 --> 1:04:32.840 percent in all major networks. Everybody go ahead and calling 1:04:32.920 --> 1:04:35.800 him for Ron DeSantis but leading by fifteen points, Charlie 1:04:35.840 --> 1:04:38.480 crist I mean, barely winning the election by what less 1:04:38.480 --> 1:04:42.320 than point one percent something last time around against Andrew 1:04:42.360 --> 1:04:45.680 gil just staer stonning. This will be one of the 1:04:45.680 --> 1:04:49.200 major national stories coming out of this, no question, Marco Rubio, 1:04:49.280 --> 1:04:52.640 as you said, already getting declared the winner at eight PM, 1:04:52.720 --> 1:04:55.160 which is crazy. I mean, you know, to have Florida, 1:04:55.200 --> 1:04:59.800 that's supposed for my entire lifetime, Florida, Ohio. These states 1:04:59.840 --> 1:05:02.600 were considered the major bell weathers. Now what is it. 1:05:02.600 --> 1:05:05.240 We're talking about Georgia, We're talking about Arizona, We're talking 1:05:05.280 --> 1:05:08.160 about the Midwest, places that should not be in play 1:05:08.240 --> 1:05:10.480 or never were. And you know, in really the political 1:05:10.560 --> 1:05:13.640 environment all of us came up really shifted. Well, I 1:05:13.680 --> 1:05:16.520 mean now for Democrat. Democrats have this great way of 1:05:16.600 --> 1:05:19.400 being like, oh, that's state Ohio. We don't care about 1:05:19.440 --> 1:05:23.200 that state anymore. Let's Obama Attle Greener. Yeah, I mean 1:05:23.600 --> 1:05:25.960 that's a red state. Forgot about that place. But yeah, 1:05:25.960 --> 1:05:28.400 I mean it's really shifted now they're focused more on, 1:05:28.760 --> 1:05:31.960 you know, the sun belt state certainly Georgia, you know, 1:05:32.040 --> 1:05:34.320 North Carolina was a big hope for a while. Those 1:05:34.320 --> 1:05:37.880 hopes have faded a little bit. But certainly Arizona is 1:05:38.160 --> 1:05:40.800 new turf for for Democrats in terms of you know, 1:05:40.920 --> 1:05:43.080 it was not long ago where it is very difficult 1:05:43.120 --> 1:05:45.480 for Democrats to win in Arizona. And now you have 1:05:45.560 --> 1:05:50.120 Mark Kelly there, you know, favored. It's far from over, 1:05:50.240 --> 1:05:53.240 but favored to win in the state. And obviously Biden 1:05:53.280 --> 1:05:55.040 won their last time around. So I mean, this is 1:05:55.120 --> 1:05:58.960 the political realignment. And they also got Colorado. Colorado used 1:05:58.960 --> 1:06:02.480 to not be either, So there's I would say if 1:06:02.480 --> 1:06:05.200 I were Democrats stratis, I would not trade Ohio and Florida. 1:06:05.680 --> 1:06:09.280 Colorado no offense to college. So we have our official 1:06:09.320 --> 1:06:12.160 flip of the night A Charlie Chris old Sea Florida 1:06:12.200 --> 1:06:15.360 thirteenth District, Anna Paulina. I think she used to work 1:06:15.400 --> 1:06:18.480 for Turning Point. I believe I met her once or twice. Anyway, 1:06:18.680 --> 1:06:21.720 she and Paulina Lena. She has officially flipped Florida thirteen. 1:06:21.920 --> 1:06:24.680 That is officially one gain for the Republicans in the 1:06:24.720 --> 1:06:26.920 House of Representatives. As a reminder, everybody, it's only eight 1:06:26.960 --> 1:06:29.960 oh six, so it is really beginning to get started 1:06:30.160 --> 1:06:31.920 right now. I have a call for you. Go ahead. 1:06:32.080 --> 1:06:36.520 Democrats have flipped the Maryland governorship. Oh, Wes Moore will 1:06:36.520 --> 1:06:39.400 be ghosts technically, but yeah, Maryland's first black governor. Yeah, 1:06:39.400 --> 1:06:42.400 I mean this was one where again, uh, going back 1:06:42.440 --> 1:06:46.320 to the question just Trump Helper Herd, Republicans nominated an 1:06:46.360 --> 1:06:50.400 extreme candidate in Maryland. Maryland is a state that you know, 1:06:50.520 --> 1:06:53.560 currently has a Republican governor. So you know, it is 1:06:53.600 --> 1:06:55.560 a blue state, but it's one that has a track 1:06:55.560 --> 1:06:58.480 record of being willing to vote for Republicans for governor. 1:06:59.360 --> 1:07:01.520 I don't know if Larry Hogan, the current governor, I 1:07:01.520 --> 1:07:03.480 don't know if he outright endorsed to Wes Moore, but 1:07:03.520 --> 1:07:05.680 I do know he said he would not vote for 1:07:05.760 --> 1:07:09.520 the Republican nominee. So you know, this turns a seat 1:07:09.520 --> 1:07:11.880 that you know, maybe Republicans could have contested with a 1:07:11.880 --> 1:07:14.360 different candidate into one that was just a slam dunk 1:07:14.400 --> 1:07:17.120 for West One. Here's another fun game, which is by 1:07:17.160 --> 1:07:19.720 how much are DeSantis and Rubio winning by? So Rubio 1:07:19.840 --> 1:07:22.720 right now is up about twelve points over val Deming's 1:07:22.840 --> 1:07:25.360 in Florida. The five point thirty eight average had him 1:07:25.400 --> 1:07:28.560 at twelve points leading. So that's interesting. So to consider 1:07:28.600 --> 1:07:31.280 this one of the first times. Well okay, so maybe 1:07:31.320 --> 1:07:34.760 we can consider this in now red states. Maybe they 1:07:34.760 --> 1:07:37.920 are getting good at calling these although Florida was pretty 1:07:37.960 --> 1:07:40.320 off in twenty twenty. If we'll all recall by add 1:07:40.360 --> 1:07:43.800 Biden up by three but Trump letting it by two. 1:07:44.120 --> 1:07:46.720 So that's this is These are the fun things. Also 1:07:46.960 --> 1:07:49.960 to look at is the margins, the actual polling average 1:07:50.040 --> 1:07:52.440 the day of, and it does look like both DeSantis 1:07:52.440 --> 1:07:55.439 and Rubio. DeSantis actually outperforming a little bit his polls. 1:07:55.440 --> 1:07:56.880 They had him up by about ten. He looks to 1:07:56.920 --> 1:07:59.960 be winning by almost fifteen, but Rubio dead on at 1:08:00.000 --> 1:08:02.760 twelve in Florida. That's a win actually for the polling industry, 1:08:02.840 --> 1:08:04.880 I think so far, so we should celebrate some of 1:08:04.920 --> 1:08:07.040 the little wins before we get on the dunks. I 1:08:07.040 --> 1:08:09.439 do find it interesting though, I mean, just look, let's 1:08:09.440 --> 1:08:11.720 all let it sink in Florida's a red state. That's crazy. 1:08:11.840 --> 1:08:16.559 We've also got a flip for governor of Massachusetts, which 1:08:16.600 --> 1:08:19.760 had been a Republican. Again a blue state where a 1:08:19.800 --> 1:08:22.360 Republican was governor. Now you have Democrats flip that one 1:08:22.400 --> 1:08:25.639 as well. Similar dynamic where you had an extremist candidate 1:08:25.720 --> 1:08:27.840 it was nominated by the Republicans and made this an 1:08:27.880 --> 1:08:31.280 easy win ultimately for the Democrats. So similar dynamic in 1:08:31.320 --> 1:08:34.439 Massachusetts as you ultimately had in Maryland. By the way, 1:08:34.439 --> 1:08:37.040 what did you think of that political strategy, which you 1:08:37.080 --> 1:08:41.559 can call it that where Democrats would prop up the 1:08:41.560 --> 1:08:44.920 more extremist Republican candidate, Because as a matter of principle, 1:08:44.960 --> 1:08:46.280 I think it's a messed up thing to do because 1:08:46.320 --> 1:08:48.160 you're rolling the dice with these people who you admit 1:08:48.240 --> 1:08:50.920 are like a threat to democracy and flat out authoritarian. 1:08:51.240 --> 1:08:53.800 But like in terms of the actual strategy of it, 1:08:54.280 --> 1:08:56.680 I mean, if it's effective, it's like I kind of 1:08:56.680 --> 1:08:58.479 see where they're coming. So it's effective with a very 1:08:58.560 --> 1:09:01.479 very high consequence, right, Buldock WEDNESDA Night, that's going to 1:09:01.520 --> 1:09:03.719 be a big, big screw up. Yeah, it's the master 1:09:04.120 --> 1:09:06.519 one of those propped up Austrana was. So that's why 1:09:06.520 --> 1:09:08.080 it's a mixed bag. It's one of those things where 1:09:08.120 --> 1:09:10.439 if it works, yeah, it's smart strategy. If it doesn't 1:09:10.439 --> 1:09:13.000 work and you end up with Baldock to the balduck 1:09:13.040 --> 1:09:15.360 literally in the United States Senate for six straight years 1:09:15.360 --> 1:09:17.000 as well, you have a serious problem. Well, and this 1:09:17.040 --> 1:09:19.640 is where it's tough too, because it seems that the 1:09:19.880 --> 1:09:22.240 and this is and this is why mestern has been 1:09:22.280 --> 1:09:27.400 a super hurt by the election denial issues. Governor from 1:09:27.439 --> 1:09:30.320 an election denial perspective matters way more than a senator 1:09:30.560 --> 1:09:34.040 because they point the secretary. Yeah, but that's the that's 1:09:34.080 --> 1:09:35.680 the kind of the key differentiator there. But look, I 1:09:35.720 --> 1:09:39.040 think the problem with the thing that's curious the two 1:09:39.040 --> 1:09:40.760 of you think about this, because this is this gets 1:09:40.800 --> 1:09:43.160 the difficulty of like the democratic partic because Kyle, you 1:09:43.160 --> 1:09:46.960 were like democrats did its like democratic like political operatives 1:09:46.960 --> 1:09:49.920 did it? So like it's this weird coalitional politics where 1:09:50.000 --> 1:09:52.200 you have like so, I don't think we have a 1:09:52.000 --> 1:09:54.680 big answer to this thing. But it just seems like 1:09:54.720 --> 1:09:57.000 a bad idea because if you believe the election issue 1:09:57.120 --> 1:10:01.839 is a serious as you believe obvious, if if American 1:10:01.840 --> 1:10:04.160 democracy is at stake, we could also believe that people 1:10:04.200 --> 1:10:07.120 would elect. Therefore I would not like fuck around and 1:10:07.160 --> 1:10:16.240 find out that way. Biden's final speech, right after he'd 1:10:16.280 --> 1:10:18.960 already done the one with the red lighting that freaked 1:10:19.000 --> 1:10:21.080 down about whatever and said they were what did you 1:10:21.120 --> 1:10:24.360 say semi fascists, Yeah, semi fascist and then he did 1:10:24.400 --> 1:10:27.080 the final election pitch was like democracy is on the 1:10:27.080 --> 1:10:30.120 ballot they did the January sixth years. I mean, if 1:10:30.160 --> 1:10:34.280 they believe their own rhetoric that the real dividing line 1:10:34.680 --> 1:10:37.960 is not even D or R left or right, it's 1:10:38.000 --> 1:10:41.080 whether or not you believe in the basic tenets of democracy. 1:10:41.160 --> 1:10:43.599 Like if you actually believe that, how do you then 1:10:43.720 --> 1:10:46.840 go and like bolster a candidate like Don Bulldock or 1:10:47.280 --> 1:10:49.679 Doug Mastriano in Pennsylvania. I mean that's why I said, 1:10:49.720 --> 1:10:53.040 as a matter of principle, you shouldn't do it because 1:10:53.080 --> 1:10:56.280 like it shows like like you're playing with fire exactly. 1:10:56.720 --> 1:10:59.280 But also in terms of strategy, you can't deny that 1:10:59.320 --> 1:11:01.840 they probably would have had way more wins if it 1:11:01.880 --> 1:11:03.559 was the more moderate Republicans. You know, you made that 1:11:03.560 --> 1:11:05.879 point before. If it was Glenn Yunkin everywhere in the country, 1:11:06.120 --> 1:11:10.439 Democrats be screwed. Definitely, wh absolutely absolutely. Second GOP flip 1:11:10.439 --> 1:11:13.479 of the night is in Florida seven, So Corey Mills 1:11:13.520 --> 1:11:15.800 winning there. So that's two net two right now in 1:11:15.880 --> 1:11:18.559 terms of seats, I expect many more will be coming in. 1:11:18.680 --> 1:11:21.960 It's really interesting in order to consider the Florida results. Also, 1:11:22.000 --> 1:11:26.360 I'm curious, so get this. Val Demings raised seventy two 1:11:26.720 --> 1:11:31.320 million dollars in that race, Marco seventy two. I think 1:11:31.320 --> 1:11:33.680 we should let the audience let that sink in. I 1:11:33.720 --> 1:11:36.600 remember when Beto raised twenty million, and I was like, 1:11:36.640 --> 1:11:39.559 that's crazy. I can't even believe that he raised twenty 1:11:39.600 --> 1:11:42.599 million dollars like in a week, and he ended up 1:11:42.600 --> 1:11:45.000 against Ted Cruz with his competitive almost and that was 1:11:45.040 --> 1:11:48.799 competitive within two points. I mean, that was the national story. 1:11:48.840 --> 1:11:50.720 We talked about, Crystal. You and I talked about that 1:11:50.960 --> 1:11:54.040 ad nausea. Beto and Ted. We could not even believe 1:11:54.080 --> 1:11:55.479 the amount of money that he had in the tank. 1:11:55.800 --> 1:11:59.280 And val Demings now outpacing even some of those landmark 1:11:59.320 --> 1:12:03.840 campaigns of twenty eighteen in terms of dollar fundraising, very 1:12:03.880 --> 1:12:06.479 well fundraised all of these candidates, and she loses the 1:12:06.560 --> 1:12:09.479 race at eight ZHO one. Well, I'm stunning. There is 1:12:09.520 --> 1:12:12.040 a big story in this election about the amount of money. 1:12:12.200 --> 1:12:17.200 It will be overwhelmingly record breaking sums spent on this 1:12:17.439 --> 1:12:20.320 midterm election. One thing that you know, sort of the 1:12:20.360 --> 1:12:24.160 like Democratic hopium on Twitter that I saw was that 1:12:24.280 --> 1:12:28.679 Democratic candidates, especially at the grassroots level, they were wildly 1:12:28.720 --> 1:12:33.880 out fundraising their Republican counterpoints, and so they were saying, look, 1:12:33.920 --> 1:12:36.360 this is counterparts. So they're saying that this is an 1:12:36.360 --> 1:12:39.720 indication the democratic base is more enthusiastic, and so this 1:12:39.760 --> 1:12:42.960 is one indicator of that ultimately. But you know, the 1:12:43.200 --> 1:12:48.280 amount of money that billionaires flooded into these races is 1:12:48.560 --> 1:12:52.479 really disturbing and really disgusting if again, you actually really 1:12:52.520 --> 1:12:56.400 do care about like democracy and people having a voice 1:12:56.760 --> 1:12:59.040 and not just being controlled by a bunch of billionaires. 1:12:59.240 --> 1:13:01.360 So I actually have this pacifics on that. Americans for 1:13:01.400 --> 1:13:04.000 Tax Fairness did a report and they released it last week. 1:13:04.479 --> 1:13:08.880 New analysis finds that four hundred and sixty five billionaires 1:13:08.880 --> 1:13:11.760 had pumped eight hundred and eighty one million dollars into 1:13:11.800 --> 1:13:14.720 the twenty twenty two federal metrum elections by October. That's 1:13:14.840 --> 1:13:19.080 twenty seven times more than they contributed before Citizens United 1:13:19.560 --> 1:13:23.120 was decided. So back in twenty ten, those billionaires only 1:13:23.120 --> 1:13:25.760 spent thirty two million on the election. Again, now it's 1:13:25.840 --> 1:13:28.880 eight hundred and eighty one million. Wow, that's fascinating, I 1:13:28.920 --> 1:13:30.960 mean it is. It's also funny too, because you know 1:13:31.000 --> 1:13:34.200 that those set are much more influenced by the hopium 1:13:34.200 --> 1:13:36.280 of these many of these polls, like the val deemings 1:13:36.320 --> 1:13:38.240 in them, and it's just to watch it all just 1:13:38.280 --> 1:13:41.080 get flushed down the drain. Is just really stunning. Some 1:13:41.120 --> 1:13:44.479 interesting numbers here from Miami Day, just to reiterate twenty eighteen, 1:13:44.600 --> 1:13:47.200 DeSantis won thirty nine percent twenty twenty. This was a 1:13:47.200 --> 1:13:49.519 big story that we covered Trump at forty three percent 1:13:49.600 --> 1:13:53.320 twenty twenty, basically near almost one hundred percent reporting desantus 1:13:53.320 --> 1:13:55.560 at fifty three. So a ten point swing in the 1:13:55.640 --> 1:13:59.200 DeSantis direction away from Trump from twenty twenty to twenty 1:13:59.240 --> 1:14:02.280 twenty two and a near like fifteen percent gain to 1:14:02.360 --> 1:14:05.519 an outright majority in Miami Dade County for Disantis there 1:14:05.800 --> 1:14:09.080 in the Latin just four years, which again really is stunning. 1:14:09.120 --> 1:14:11.800 And there's quite a bit I'm seeing pumped out by 1:14:12.000 --> 1:14:15.519 Republican elites talking about the DeSantis victory. The margin of 1:14:15.560 --> 1:14:18.040 victory outlines how popular his platform is when compared to 1:14:18.120 --> 1:14:20.559 the Democrats. The Club for Growth, which is a major 1:14:20.640 --> 1:14:23.519 organization obviously battling right now with Trump, they went to 1:14:23.560 --> 1:14:26.240 bat with Trump over Blake Masters, they went to sorry 1:14:26.479 --> 1:14:29.439 over JD. Vance. There was a big fight there if 1:14:29.479 --> 1:14:32.519 we'll all recall whenever they endorsed Josh Mandel. Wow, that's 1:14:32.560 --> 1:14:34.840 the name I haven't thought of in a long time. 1:14:34.880 --> 1:14:37.160 Thank god we don't have to talk about that one tonight. 1:14:37.400 --> 1:14:40.160 But anyway, it highlights that there is a major war 1:14:40.560 --> 1:14:44.120 right now for the quote unquote narrative amongst Republican elites, 1:14:44.160 --> 1:14:48.400 the idea of Desanta's twenty twenty four. Our respective opinions regardless, 1:14:48.439 --> 1:14:51.719 like a lot of gop elites right now are pushing 1:14:51.880 --> 1:14:54.200 very very hard, from what I can see, the idea 1:14:54.200 --> 1:14:57.320 of Haymlessen running for president. My view of this is 1:14:57.320 --> 1:14:59.200 what I said on Breaking Points the other day, which 1:14:59.240 --> 1:15:02.320 is like this is like the more clever version of 1:15:02.400 --> 1:15:06.400 like the never Trump movement. It's like it is they think, okay, well, 1:15:06.439 --> 1:15:09.680 we tried going straight up against him. Didn't work with 1:15:09.760 --> 1:15:12.559 like people who would actually repudiate him and be critical 1:15:12.600 --> 1:15:14.800 of him and like you know, call him names or 1:15:14.840 --> 1:15:17.960 what I like. That clearly failed. Liz Cheney obviously not 1:15:18.000 --> 1:15:20.200 going to work out this time. Let's go with someone 1:15:20.240 --> 1:15:22.439 who's like trying to mimic him and trying to be 1:15:22.800 --> 1:15:24.960 just like him, except for you know, maybe a little 1:15:25.000 --> 1:15:28.719 bit less crazy and not really directly criticize him. Maybe 1:15:28.760 --> 1:15:31.920 that will be the thing that will work, but ultimately, 1:15:32.080 --> 1:15:36.080 you still have a working class megabase that is deeply 1:15:36.080 --> 1:15:38.120 committed to Donald Trump. And they may be fine with 1:15:38.240 --> 1:15:41.240 Ron DeSantis, they may be okay with him, but this 1:15:41.400 --> 1:15:45.400 is disproportionally. It's not one hundred percent, but it's disproportionally 1:15:45.560 --> 1:15:49.960 a sort of like elite, highly educated, highly online phenomenon 1:15:50.080 --> 1:15:53.640 trying to make this guy a thing go ahead. And 1:15:53.680 --> 1:15:56.400 this is why I'm fascinated how the two parties and 1:15:56.400 --> 1:16:00.280 their incendiisms are different. So the Democratic Party, this is 1:16:00.280 --> 1:16:03.800 why Hillary Clinton ultimately beats Bernie this is why Joe 1:16:03.800 --> 1:16:07.280 Biden becaus nominee. Like your average normally Democratic voter is like, 1:16:07.280 --> 1:16:11.519 what's electability? Am I super excited by Joe Biden? No? 1:16:11.920 --> 1:16:15.120 Is Hillary pass just so by date? Probably, but like 1:16:15.439 --> 1:16:20.200 she's gonna win. The Republican base is not voting for electability, right, 1:16:20.320 --> 1:16:23.720 and they've ever since twenty twelve. Romney was the last 1:16:23.720 --> 1:16:27.040 time the Republican Party picked their choice off of electability. 1:16:27.280 --> 1:16:29.240 And that's just the critical difference here. And it seems 1:16:29.479 --> 1:16:31.680 like the weird situation that DeSantis stands are in is 1:16:31.680 --> 1:16:33.800 they're basically trying to make an argument that you would 1:16:33.800 --> 1:16:37.000 make to the Democratic Party. Right. That is funny because true, 1:16:38.360 --> 1:16:41.479 right now, the people who are still big time supporters 1:16:41.479 --> 1:16:46.120 of Donald Trump after everything we've seen, it is super cultish, 1:16:46.479 --> 1:16:49.400 way more cultish than any dissentist stands on Twitter. In 1:16:49.400 --> 1:16:51.000 my opinion, I don't know in a sense, I don't 1:16:51.040 --> 1:16:52.840 agree with the analysis of like, oh, we still got 1:16:52.840 --> 1:16:56.160 this working class base. He's got like quean On people 1:16:56.200 --> 1:16:58.200 at this point, Like, yeah, I get thirty percent of 1:16:58.200 --> 1:17:01.560 the country, I admittedly, but like that's not merely as 1:17:01.560 --> 1:17:05.400 it wasn't person the base things that the election was stolen. 1:17:06.000 --> 1:17:10.639 It's an overwhelming majority. I understand that. But again the idea, 1:17:10.680 --> 1:17:12.920 I don't buy this notion anymore, like, oh, he's got 1:17:12.920 --> 1:17:15.120 this working class base, like all the two times Obama 1:17:15.160 --> 1:17:17.160 voter who flipped a Trump because his job was outsore. 1:17:17.240 --> 1:17:20.120 Those people are gone. Now it's people who are trying 1:17:20.120 --> 1:17:22.400 to figure out what Qwanon is saying and they're going 1:17:22.400 --> 1:17:29.320 to try exact tion more votes. Okay, but there's a 1:17:29.360 --> 1:17:31.200 lot of things that have happened since then, right, I mean, 1:17:31.240 --> 1:17:34.280 like January sixth happened, and he's gone full authoritarian and 1:17:34.320 --> 1:17:36.360 every other day he's on truth social saying put me 1:17:36.400 --> 1:17:41.400 back in or let's redo the election, good struggle, let's 1:17:41.400 --> 1:17:43.639 talk about let's talk about this though. Yeah, I don't 1:17:43.640 --> 1:17:46.679 think there's an equivalence between these two things. But narrative, 1:17:46.680 --> 1:17:48.439 you've kind of seen that in the paper recently has 1:17:48.439 --> 1:17:50.400 been If you talk to a lot of like Trump 1:17:50.479 --> 1:17:53.600 voters about the extremism January sixth argument, they'll say in 1:17:53.640 --> 1:17:55.360 a kind of what about his way, Well, what about 1:17:55.360 --> 1:17:58.559 like summer twenty twenty and the riots, and actually both 1:17:58.600 --> 1:18:00.920 the parties are extremists and bad, Like I just think 1:18:00.960 --> 1:18:03.000 we're in this weird area where it just kind of 1:18:03.120 --> 1:18:04.920 washed out. I agree with you, though they say like, 1:18:04.920 --> 1:18:06.960 oh it was Antifa who did it? For like, oh 1:18:07.000 --> 1:18:08.880 Antifa did it? Or I actually know was we did it? 1:18:08.880 --> 1:18:10.680 But it was based They go back and forth. But 1:18:10.680 --> 1:18:12.439 you're kind of making my point. It's like this weird 1:18:13.120 --> 1:18:16.160 contradictory cult that he has around him. I don't view them. 1:18:16.200 --> 1:18:19.080 I don't think it's like representative. Certainly not fifty one 1:18:19.120 --> 1:18:21.080 percent of the country nowhere near that. So from what 1:18:21.160 --> 1:18:25.640 I well, I'll remind director in college, but I have 1:18:25.760 --> 1:18:28.320 the most but the other interesting one. Actually we haven't 1:18:28.320 --> 1:18:30.519 talked about this yet, which I found fascinating. Ahead of 1:18:30.560 --> 1:18:34.719 congressional preference, guys number fifteen, please, this is the gender gap. 1:18:35.000 --> 1:18:37.479 This is something which actually bears a lot of discussion, 1:18:37.600 --> 1:18:40.160 and I believe that it will be born out tonight, 1:18:40.280 --> 1:18:43.320 especially in those Miami Dad numbers and elsewhere. Let's just 1:18:43.400 --> 1:18:46.799 highlight here congressional preference for those who might just be listening, 1:18:47.120 --> 1:18:51.320 men with college educated men who are college educated or more. 1:18:51.160 --> 1:18:54.080 We had a D plus sixteen preference in twenty eighteen. 1:18:54.400 --> 1:18:58.080 Today is R plus ten with a twenty six point 1:18:58.160 --> 1:19:02.000 shift over four years. That's insane. But then look at 1:19:02.000 --> 1:19:04.519 it with the no degree. So basically you continue to 1:19:04.560 --> 1:19:07.320 have a Republican preference R plus eight in twenty and 1:19:07.479 --> 1:19:10.840 eighteen R plus twenty now at twelve point shift. Here's 1:19:10.840 --> 1:19:13.200 the crazy one though, with college educated women and Crystal. 1:19:13.240 --> 1:19:16.200 This gets to the suburban women discussion that we had previously. 1:19:16.439 --> 1:19:18.439 Dems bet the House that they could try and keep 1:19:18.600 --> 1:19:21.519 college educated women. They have it there at D plus 1:19:21.560 --> 1:19:24.479 thirty four in twenty eighteen, now D plus thirty eight 1:19:24.520 --> 1:19:27.080 only a four point shift. And then finally women with 1:19:27.160 --> 1:19:29.880 no college degree had a D plus three preference in 1:19:29.920 --> 1:19:34.080 twenty eighteen, a D plus one preference effectively tied today 1:19:34.160 --> 1:19:36.280 in twenty twenty two with a two point shift in 1:19:36.320 --> 1:19:39.720 the Republican direction. So you effectively see massive swings or 1:19:39.760 --> 1:19:42.680 a tiny swing with women with no college degree, and 1:19:42.720 --> 1:19:45.280 the only ground that is made up there Crystal was 1:19:45.320 --> 1:19:47.920 women with a college degree and only by four points, 1:19:48.000 --> 1:19:50.639 So really fascinating from a gender persse. I do think 1:19:50.800 --> 1:19:53.200 that one of the stories we might be talking about 1:19:53.240 --> 1:19:55.800 tomorrow is a huge gender devive. I think we may 1:19:55.840 --> 1:19:59.800 see a massive because you know, ultimately, you know, the 1:20:00.000 --> 1:20:03.560 the country is sort of living in these separate media ecosystems, 1:20:03.600 --> 1:20:08.400 separate bubbles. They're experiencing this election in like totally different ways. 1:20:08.479 --> 1:20:11.200 The issues that they're concerned about, that they're voting on 1:20:11.400 --> 1:20:14.320 are completely separate. The way they're thinking about these issues. 1:20:14.320 --> 1:20:16.880 I mean, it really is almost like the countries on 1:20:16.960 --> 1:20:20.880 two parallel tracks. And it does seem like, you know, 1:20:20.920 --> 1:20:25.479 the Row versus Wade being overturned, the DABS decision that 1:20:25.600 --> 1:20:28.760 also helped to set women in general and men in 1:20:28.800 --> 1:20:30.920 general on sort of a different track in terms of 1:20:30.920 --> 1:20:33.439 how they were viewing this election. Listen. I mean, it 1:20:33.479 --> 1:20:35.640 makes a lot of sense. If you're a woman, this 1:20:35.720 --> 1:20:38.080 feels a lot more direct, a lot more personal. You 1:20:38.160 --> 1:20:40.960 have like more just like directly at stake in terms 1:20:41.000 --> 1:20:44.160 of the decision. Of course, there's long been a widening 1:20:44.200 --> 1:20:47.439 jender divide, with Democrats doing better with women in general 1:20:47.479 --> 1:20:50.360 and Republicans doing better with men in general. But I 1:20:50.439 --> 1:20:53.680 do think it will be probably particularly stark in this election. Well, 1:20:53.680 --> 1:20:57.040 one quick thing and this is this is like a 1:20:57.120 --> 1:21:00.599 policy endorsement, but it was a course correction the Republicans 1:21:00.640 --> 1:21:05.120 pulled off, like the abortion rhetoric Lake Masters, June twenty 1:21:05.160 --> 1:21:08.919 twenty two. Once it's clear how devastating the abortion decision 1:21:09.000 --> 1:21:12.720 was for Republicans in those Kansas referendums, deletes the you know, 1:21:13.040 --> 1:21:18.320 National Abortion Band from webs right Republicans, and it's kind 1:21:18.320 --> 1:21:20.960 of interesting that the pro life movement was this forgetting. 1:21:21.080 --> 1:21:22.840 It shows how calculating this was, Like the pro life 1:21:22.880 --> 1:21:27.800 movement forgave Republicans really dialing back where they went, trying 1:21:27.800 --> 1:21:29.680 to turn the debate into like democrats of the real 1:21:29.680 --> 1:21:31.840 extremists un abortion. So that was a that was a 1:21:32.000 --> 1:21:34.120 that could have gone a different direction. I mean, it's 1:21:34.160 --> 1:21:36.559 kind of test case here. It's honestly a sign of 1:21:36.600 --> 1:21:39.960 sort of political maturity in the pro life movement, because 1:21:40.120 --> 1:21:46.000 ultimately they, I mean, they have been building this machine 1:21:46.280 --> 1:21:49.559 for decades. They had their eyes on the prize. They 1:21:49.640 --> 1:21:51.800 knew this was going to be one or loss at 1:21:51.800 --> 1:21:56.400 the Supreme Court. They created an entire infrastructure, They made 1:21:56.600 --> 1:22:00.600 the alliances of convenience with the billionaire clubs and the 1:22:00.720 --> 1:22:04.840 like radical libertarian economic people in order to make this 1:22:04.880 --> 1:22:07.800 thing happen. They looked at Donald Trump and they're like, 1:22:07.840 --> 1:22:11.160 this man stands for used to give too like pro 1:22:11.200 --> 1:22:14.439 life causes, used to literally give to planned parenthood. His 1:22:14.520 --> 1:22:17.400 personal life is a total catastrophe and a disaster. No 1:22:17.439 --> 1:22:19.080 one would be shocked if that man is paid for 1:22:19.280 --> 1:22:22.639 one or multiple abortions himself. But they said, he gave 1:22:22.720 --> 1:22:25.120 us the list, he's gonna put these nominees on the court, 1:22:25.360 --> 1:22:27.080 and so am I surprised that they look at Blake 1:22:27.120 --> 1:22:29.960 Masters like scrubbing his website from his previous abortion language, 1:22:29.960 --> 1:22:31.959 and they're like, Eh, what are you gonna do? Ultimately, 1:22:31.960 --> 1:22:33.280 he's going to vote the way we want him to. 1:22:33.280 --> 1:22:35.280 And Mark Kelly's not. No, I'm not shocked by that. 1:22:35.280 --> 1:22:38.080 Pretty interesting. I still I think if they get the 1:22:38.160 --> 1:22:40.400 numbers though, they're going to go for a national abortion bit. 1:22:41.280 --> 1:22:43.519 This is the testiny. This is actually you know, people 1:22:43.560 --> 1:22:46.160 got pistel. Lindsay Graham introduced his band. That's true. Yeah, 1:22:46.160 --> 1:22:48.519 they know. So we actually you run in some people 1:22:48.520 --> 1:22:51.360 with some people who often update us on what are 1:22:51.360 --> 1:22:53.519 the major pro life folks paying. They were mad at 1:22:53.560 --> 1:22:56.679 Lindsay because Lindsay was only capping it at fifteen Reichs. 1:22:57.160 --> 1:22:58.720 They were like, no, no, no, They're like, that's not 1:22:58.880 --> 1:23:01.480 where we're going for. I mean, look if they do, 1:23:01.600 --> 1:23:03.800 if they do that, well, I mean I can just 1:23:03.840 --> 1:23:06.760 say good luck, Chrystal. Want to check in with you 1:23:06.560 --> 1:23:09.840 your district Stamburger, do we got fifty of the votes 1:23:09.840 --> 1:23:13.720 in Okay? We have a Silly Vega at fifty five 1:23:14.160 --> 1:23:16.519 and span Burger at forty five percent. With one hundred 1:23:16.560 --> 1:23:18.960 and twenty thousand votes which have been cast so far, 1:23:19.040 --> 1:23:21.479 we've got what all right, So let me a margin. 1:23:21.520 --> 1:23:23.680 I got to see which counties are in? Are the 1:23:23.720 --> 1:23:26.960 ones because so this district, the more you get to 1:23:27.000 --> 1:23:30.840 the north, the more democratic it ultimately is. So it 1:23:30.880 --> 1:23:34.960 looks like you've got Orange County is partially in. That's 1:23:35.000 --> 1:23:37.360 a very Republican area. You've got Culpepper County, which is 1:23:37.439 --> 1:23:41.760 kind of mixed. You've got Prince William County partially in 1:23:41.880 --> 1:23:44.240 that's a good area for Spanburger. That's about twenty eight 1:23:44.240 --> 1:23:46.760 percent in. It's still too early to say because you 1:23:46.840 --> 1:23:49.880 have some key areas down. And for example, my vote 1:23:49.920 --> 1:23:52.120 in King George County has yet to be counted. Yet 1:23:52.360 --> 1:23:55.360 we all know it's not over. It's one I have 1:23:55.479 --> 1:23:58.840 to say at the ballot box, the CIA ghoul versus 1:23:58.920 --> 1:24:01.120 the cop in my district, way go ahead. Can I 1:24:01.120 --> 1:24:03.640 give you guys some early voting numbers in Crystal you 1:24:03.680 --> 1:24:05.880 and I were we talked about this earlier today. What's 1:24:05.880 --> 1:24:08.839 the name of the guy, the Democratic polster Stan Greenberg? 1:24:08.880 --> 1:24:12.559 Vonear that guy Bonyer? Yeah? So with the target smart, Yes, 1:24:12.720 --> 1:24:15.360 with target smart, so he said, in early voting, the 1:24:15.400 --> 1:24:20.200 Democratic advantage is eleven percent, and in twenty twenty, to 1:24:20.200 --> 1:24:23.599 put it in perspective, it was seven percent. In twenty 1:24:23.640 --> 1:24:27.760 eighteen it was one percent. So before any of the 1:24:27.840 --> 1:24:31.040 votes that were cast today, Democrats had already built up 1:24:31.080 --> 1:24:34.280 a four point four million vote lead. And that actually 1:24:34.360 --> 1:24:35.880 leads into another question I wanted to ask you guys, 1:24:35.880 --> 1:24:38.519 you were talking about the gender gap here, do you 1:24:38.560 --> 1:24:41.160 think that there's going to be a giant like age 1:24:41.200 --> 1:24:43.200 gap as well, Like, are you going to are we 1:24:43.200 --> 1:24:47.720 going to see young voters turn out for Democrats for 1:24:47.920 --> 1:24:50.320 one of the reasons being that, you know, Biden did 1:24:50.400 --> 1:24:53.120 the student loan debt reduction which ninety percent of the 1:24:53.120 --> 1:24:55.840 people impacted make seventy five thousand dollars year or less. 1:24:55.960 --> 1:24:58.439 Are we going to see basically like politically Biden the 1:24:58.479 --> 1:25:01.120 Democrats getting rewarded for what they did. There. So the 1:25:01.240 --> 1:25:03.840 only indication that I've seen yet and because remember that 1:25:03.920 --> 1:25:07.120 detailed breakdown doesn't come until sometimes even weeks later, was 1:25:07.200 --> 1:25:10.040 John Rawlson was looking at this in terms of Clark 1:25:10.040 --> 1:25:13.559 County and Nevada. He said, actually, the younger voters between 1:25:13.600 --> 1:25:15.479 eighteen and twenty five were not showing up at all, 1:25:15.520 --> 1:25:18.400 like almost wow. Only at one point you land like 1:25:18.400 --> 1:25:21.200 a thousand votes even come in in that age group, 1:25:21.240 --> 1:25:23.439 which is he said, you know, this just shows you 1:25:23.439 --> 1:25:26.320 young people not showing up to vote. Again, that was Nevada, 1:25:26.520 --> 1:25:28.679 that was early vote. But that is the only actual 1:25:28.680 --> 1:25:32.120 demographic data that we have. Here's an interesting one Washington 1:25:32.120 --> 1:25:34.800 Post exit polls from a couple of different states that 1:25:34.840 --> 1:25:38.839 they put together New Hampshire, Georgia, and North Carolina, little 1:25:38.880 --> 1:25:43.040 perceived differences in the extremity of Republican and Democratic candidates, 1:25:43.040 --> 1:25:45.719 which gets to all of our questions around candidate quality. 1:25:45.960 --> 1:25:49.280 In Georgia, they actually verify more. We're saying that Warnock 1:25:49.439 --> 1:25:54.559 is extreme than actually Herschel Walker, given Walker's past position 1:25:54.680 --> 1:25:58.000 on abortion and obviously his own personal dalliances all being 1:25:58.040 --> 1:26:00.400 in the news. That just shows you a tremendous amount 1:26:00.439 --> 1:26:03.479 of political polarization, which we were talking about earlier. So 1:26:03.560 --> 1:26:06.160 to have little perceived differences, Kyle, this kind of gets 1:26:06.200 --> 1:26:08.559 to the Trump question we were talking about earlier, as 1:26:08.600 --> 1:26:11.080 to all the stuff which is in a level of 1:26:11.160 --> 1:26:16.439 such partisan hatred, of polarization, the other side is always 1:26:16.520 --> 1:26:19.599 just perceived as as is extreme. And I think that 1:26:19.600 --> 1:26:22.400 that Warnock number bears that out to find it really interesting. 1:26:22.560 --> 1:26:25.760 So we do have some numbers very early out of 1:26:25.800 --> 1:26:31.880 Pennsylvania five percent, and found this dude, Ryan Dido, who 1:26:32.000 --> 1:26:36.640 is a reporter for Pittsburgh Paper, and he says, in 1:26:36.720 --> 1:26:40.000 terms of how you interpret these results coming out of Pennsylvania, 1:26:40.600 --> 1:26:44.360 very likely Fetterman will when vast majority of mail in's 1:26:44.400 --> 1:26:47.080 that's what's going to be counted first. Then OZ is 1:26:47.080 --> 1:26:49.040 going to appear to gain ground is in person votes 1:26:49.040 --> 1:26:51.599 are counted, and then fetter Men will appear to gain 1:26:51.640 --> 1:26:54.600 some ground with late arriving mail ins. So just in 1:26:54.720 --> 1:26:59.000 terms of how you're viewing these numbers as they're coming in, 1:26:59.320 --> 1:27:02.160 it's really important to keep those dynamics in mind, not 1:27:02.320 --> 1:27:05.160 just in Pennsylvania but all over the map because all 1:27:05.240 --> 1:27:07.760 of these states have a different different rules about how 1:27:07.840 --> 1:27:10.479 and when and where what they count at what time. 1:27:10.600 --> 1:27:13.519 So just keep that really in mind as you're taking 1:27:13.520 --> 1:27:15.559 a look at all of this. So far, most of 1:27:15.600 --> 1:27:18.080 the votes have come in from places that are, you know, 1:27:18.160 --> 1:27:21.200 more favorable to Fetterman. You've got a lot of votes 1:27:21.200 --> 1:27:22.840 in from Philly, you got a lot of vote votes 1:27:22.880 --> 1:27:26.080 in from Pittsburgh. And it is also that you know, 1:27:26.240 --> 1:27:29.679 early the mail in ballot so far, so very favorable 1:27:29.720 --> 1:27:32.000 results right now for Fetterman. But it's five percent in 1:27:32.040 --> 1:27:33.760 and it's mostly the mail in vote, so you literally 1:27:33.840 --> 1:27:36.439 have them right now at eighty five percent. It's I 1:27:36.439 --> 1:27:38.439 don't think it's going to end up being an eighty 1:27:38.439 --> 1:27:42.840 five percent kind of a that's really good context there 1:27:42.880 --> 1:27:44.720 for the swing, so we could see a swing fatter Man, 1:27:44.840 --> 1:27:47.720 then back to us, then maybe back to Fatterman. I mean, 1:27:47.760 --> 1:27:50.559 that's just I just really want everybody to be patient 1:27:50.920 --> 1:27:55.080 and not like read anything nefarious into these vote totals 1:27:55.160 --> 1:27:57.960 changing because it's predictable because Republicans have made it a 1:27:57.960 --> 1:28:00.880 strategy strategy of like we are going to have our 1:28:00.960 --> 1:28:03.920 voters go to the polls on election day. There is 1:28:03.960 --> 1:28:07.000 a hard partisan divide between how the parties are approaching 1:28:07.000 --> 1:28:10.320 these elections, and so that's why you may see some 1:28:10.400 --> 1:28:12.680 kind of wild swings of these vote totals throughout the night. 1:28:12.720 --> 1:28:14.360 And why frankly, like when you look at a lot 1:28:14.360 --> 1:28:17.840 of these states that we expect to end up being close. 1:28:17.960 --> 1:28:21.160 I mean, right now, the Democrats are up in New Hampshire, 1:28:21.160 --> 1:28:23.200 They're up in North Carolina, They're up in Georgia, they're 1:28:23.280 --> 1:28:26.960 up in Pennsylvania, they're up in Ohio. But again, this 1:28:27.200 --> 1:28:29.760 is the probably and most if not all of those 1:28:29.840 --> 1:28:32.800 places the early mailand vote, which we expect to be 1:28:32.880 --> 1:28:35.360 overwhelmingly Democratics. So I wouldn't read too much into any 1:28:35.400 --> 1:28:38.120 of that. Yeah, And to your point, usually they'll like 1:28:38.760 --> 1:28:41.120 they'll count all of the ones from election day and 1:28:41.160 --> 1:28:42.880 then at the end more mailands like you said, so 1:28:42.960 --> 1:28:44.679 this is why they say. There was an article earlier 1:28:44.720 --> 1:28:48.559 today in ABC talking about there were three states in 1:28:48.600 --> 1:28:51.240 particular that they say a red mirage scenario could happen. 1:28:51.400 --> 1:28:53.679 But unfortunately, Look, I think we're going to see people 1:28:53.720 --> 1:28:59.160 out there making all sorts of bad claims when they say, oh, 1:28:59.200 --> 1:29:00.880 why why is the Democrat coming back now that it's 1:29:00.920 --> 1:29:03.120 two days later and there's nothing to fairies about it. 1:29:03.200 --> 1:29:05.439 You know, we're saying it beforehand, just like you know 1:29:05.439 --> 1:29:08.639 in the twenty twenty election, when I was on Joe 1:29:08.720 --> 1:29:11.599 Rogan Show with Tim Dillon, I was telling them up front, like, look, man, 1:29:11.640 --> 1:29:14.240 this is what's going to happen. And Joe says, now, 1:29:14.320 --> 1:29:16.200 like the only reason he didn't end up going down 1:29:16.240 --> 1:29:18.040 a bad path with the election is because I was 1:29:18.040 --> 1:29:20.439 there to tell him beforehand what was going to happen. This, Wow, 1:29:20.479 --> 1:29:23.439 it's gonna unfold. Look, I know no one will heed this, 1:29:23.560 --> 1:29:26.280 but can we please please just make it so that 1:29:26.320 --> 1:29:29.640 we can count early votes like before the day of 1:29:29.880 --> 1:29:33.200 Like so many of these state legislators across the Midwest 1:29:33.200 --> 1:29:35.360 have made it so that you can't do that, I 1:29:35.400 --> 1:29:40.439 think personally because they like the chaos. Well, because a 1:29:40.520 --> 1:29:44.320 lot bad for us. It's a lot of Republicans they 1:29:44.360 --> 1:29:47.280 want that passed these rules and then they like complain 1:29:47.320 --> 1:29:49.559 about like why is it so crazy? It's like you 1:29:49.640 --> 1:29:52.360 literally made this rule, Like go look in the mirror. 1:29:52.520 --> 1:29:56.920 This stuff drives me insane. What's that I voted early 1:29:56.960 --> 1:30:00.439 in person, I voted in person today, which is stand 1:30:00.439 --> 1:30:04.880 on that actual day. You're literally I literally have one 1:30:04.920 --> 1:30:07.719 of the most least competitive districts in the country. So basically, 1:30:08.120 --> 1:30:11.040 I mean I'm not normally re drew all the districts 1:30:11.040 --> 1:30:14.160 in Virginia, and so for the rest of my entire 1:30:14.280 --> 1:30:16.800 life in King George County, it has not been in competitive, 1:30:16.800 --> 1:30:19.479 including the race that I personally ran in, right, but 1:30:19.760 --> 1:30:22.880 now I'm in you know, the Spanburger district actually is 1:30:22.880 --> 1:30:24.439 one of the ones that everybody's watching. That is such 1:30:24.439 --> 1:30:27.160 an amazing Like the fact that Biden's last campaign stop 1:30:27.280 --> 1:30:29.640 was Ashbourne, Virginia. I just can't get over that. Like 1:30:29.720 --> 1:30:33.519 for context audience, he won. Biden won that district by 1:30:33.680 --> 1:30:37.200 nineteen percentage points in twenty twenty, So to have to 1:30:37.240 --> 1:30:40.200 stop over there, you highlighted this a He's not that popular, 1:30:40.240 --> 1:30:43.000 so most people just don't really want him in their district. 1:30:43.080 --> 1:30:47.799 So he's terribly he is bad. They're sorry. I celebrate 1:30:47.840 --> 1:30:50.680 some of the policy victories and like personnel choices, but 1:30:50.800 --> 1:30:53.439 he's he can't speak. He's a terrible campaign er. So 1:30:53.840 --> 1:30:56.320 they're sending him places where it's like, yeah, Joe, go 1:30:56.400 --> 1:30:58.680 down to Florida and see what you could do for 1:30:58.760 --> 1:31:02.280 Charlie Christ. It's actually really sad in my opinion, because 1:31:02.320 --> 1:31:04.480 you got to separate it out right. There's the politics 1:31:04.560 --> 1:31:08.040 and there's policy. Yes, And on the politics front, yeah, 1:31:08.080 --> 1:31:11.080 Biden's zombie. Biden's half dead, like nobody would want him CA. 1:31:11.160 --> 1:31:13.000 I mean, Obama goes out there. I think Obama's record 1:31:13.040 --> 1:31:15.640 policy wise is worse than Biden's. But Obama gave me 1:31:15.960 --> 1:31:18.200 the other day. Yeah, and it was I mean, I 1:31:18.280 --> 1:31:19.720 told it, and I was like, I forgot how good 1:31:19.760 --> 1:31:22.559 this guy was. Listen from Personal Chrisma. Absolutely, we got 1:31:22.600 --> 1:31:25.160 j Miles Coleman standing by control room. If you guys 1:31:25.160 --> 1:31:26.519 want to go ahead and bring him in, just give 1:31:26.560 --> 1:31:28.880 me a heads up whenever he's ready to go for 1:31:29.000 --> 1:31:31.640 you guys. Remember Jay Miles Coleman. He's joined us a 1:31:31.640 --> 1:31:34.320 couple of times. Works over at Larry Sabatae's crystal Ball. 1:31:34.600 --> 1:31:37.920 No relation there, no relation. I'll steal you. Can I 1:31:37.960 --> 1:31:41.920 tell you a funny story? Yeah? My mom, bless her heart, 1:31:42.360 --> 1:31:45.080 when I stopped by her house today and she's like, 1:31:45.160 --> 1:31:47.320 I heard about you on the local news last night. 1:31:47.400 --> 1:31:50.760 I was like, oh God, what you do now? They 1:31:50.760 --> 1:31:54.120 were talking about you and this guy Larry and our 1:31:54.200 --> 1:31:59.320 lesson predictions. And I was like, no, no, Mom, Larry 1:31:59.479 --> 1:32:03.320 Sabagage crystal Ball at the University of Virginia. So anyway, 1:32:03.400 --> 1:32:06.120 my mother was wishcasting that the local news was touched. 1:32:06.120 --> 1:32:09.879 It's OK, but breaking points audience, they know what's going on. Miles. 1:32:10.040 --> 1:32:11.920 We go and bring Miles in. Guys. You guys said 1:32:12.080 --> 1:32:14.160 he's ready. Hey Miles, let's go and put it. Throw 1:32:14.200 --> 1:32:15.639 him up there on the screen. Welcome to the show. 1:32:15.880 --> 1:32:18.920 It's good to see you. Can he hear us? There is? Yeah? 1:32:19.720 --> 1:32:22.320 Oh I'm not sure there is? Gotcha? All right? So, Miles, 1:32:22.880 --> 1:32:27.240 just in terms of the Senate picture numbers are very early. 1:32:27.800 --> 1:32:31.440 Are there any Is there anything that, like tea leaves wise, 1:32:31.720 --> 1:32:34.360 is standing out to you that's giving you any sense 1:32:34.520 --> 1:32:38.000 of what directions might night might go in? Sure, So 1:32:38.400 --> 1:32:40.760 one of the sort of early bell weathers, I told 1:32:40.800 --> 1:32:44.280 people to look out for if the Republicans could beat 1:32:44.360 --> 1:32:49.479 Senator Maggie Hassen in New Hampshire. Some polls had her 1:32:49.479 --> 1:32:52.840 in a close race. From from what I'm seeing, she's 1:32:52.960 --> 1:32:57.880 overperforming Joe Biden's numbers with some areas. So she's looking 1:32:58.000 --> 1:33:01.040 pretty good. So, you know, probably not going to be 1:33:01.240 --> 1:33:03.280 you know, it could be a good Republican night, but 1:33:03.280 --> 1:33:08.520 it's not going to be the whole damn breaks right. Yeah, 1:33:08.680 --> 1:33:11.960 And then it's it's what I'm noticed. In a state 1:33:12.120 --> 1:33:17.360 like Georgia, as expected, you have Warnock who is over 1:33:17.439 --> 1:33:21.200 performing Stacy Abrams by a few points. We're just gonna 1:33:21.200 --> 1:33:23.000 have to see if it gets to the point where 1:33:23.000 --> 1:33:25.759 he can actually he win out right and to runoff. 1:33:26.360 --> 1:33:30.160 It's interesting. So you feel like in Georgia, you said, 1:33:30.160 --> 1:33:32.920 the question for Warnock is whether he can win outright 1:33:33.080 --> 1:33:35.640 or go to a runoff. You think he's in that 1:33:35.800 --> 1:33:38.439 strong of a position right now vis a vis Walker 1:33:38.479 --> 1:33:40.080 that you think he'll end up with more votes on 1:33:40.080 --> 1:33:43.479 the night. You know, he could end up ahead of Walker, 1:33:43.560 --> 1:33:46.360 but he may still be under fifty percent. You know. 1:33:46.479 --> 1:33:50.840 One you know, one of my favorite ads was basically 1:33:50.880 --> 1:33:55.200 Warnock had this ad that, Okay, well, you know I 1:33:55.320 --> 1:33:58.400 may be one of your Thanksgiving guests if my race 1:33:58.479 --> 1:34:00.759 goes to a runoff into Sound where you'll be seeing 1:34:00.800 --> 1:34:04.880 more of my ad, So want to avoid having him 1:34:04.920 --> 1:34:09.519 over for Thanksgiving. That's interesting. Another thing that is interesting 1:34:09.560 --> 1:34:12.000 to me about what you said in New Hampshire is 1:34:12.080 --> 1:34:14.840 I'm just looking at the presidential results because you said 1:34:14.880 --> 1:34:18.719 Maggie Hassen is outperforming Joe Biden. I mean, Joe Biden 1:34:18.840 --> 1:34:23.519 won New Hampshire easily. He won that state by more 1:34:23.560 --> 1:34:27.439 than seven points. The polls had Maggie Hassen, some of 1:34:27.479 --> 1:34:31.400 them had her down, the mainstream poles mostly had her 1:34:31.479 --> 1:34:35.360 up by one two points. I was very close. So 1:34:35.479 --> 1:34:38.599 if she's out performing even Joe Biden's margin, I mean, 1:34:38.680 --> 1:34:42.639 that's a significant polling miss in a direction that we're 1:34:42.680 --> 1:34:46.720 not used to getting significant polling misses. Oh yes, and 1:34:46.920 --> 1:34:49.559 you know, just with the usual caveats that you know 1:34:49.680 --> 1:34:53.400 these results are incomplete, but you know, one of the 1:34:53.439 --> 1:34:56.800 things you can keep us so sort of looking for 1:34:58.439 --> 1:35:03.240 in our election return is, I think educational polarization or 1:35:03.280 --> 1:35:07.120 whether or not you have a college degree. I think 1:35:07.439 --> 1:35:11.320 as is basically becoming as important as things like race 1:35:11.439 --> 1:35:14.680 or gender when it comes to how people book. Well, 1:35:14.720 --> 1:35:19.040 guess what, New Hampshire is a relatively more college educated state. 1:35:19.720 --> 1:35:22.479 So I can see Democrats holding up better in a 1:35:22.520 --> 1:35:26.360 state like that compared to one like four where you 1:35:26.400 --> 1:35:29.919 have more of a working class population. I mean, especially 1:35:29.960 --> 1:35:34.280 in especially in a place like my Miami off for 1:35:34.439 --> 1:35:38.120 the Republic, off of for the them Democrats. But so 1:35:38.160 --> 1:35:42.240 you know, just some it's it's just from election to 1:35:42.280 --> 1:35:45.280 election you can always see some of these larger trends 1:35:45.280 --> 1:35:50.400 as at play. That's fascinating. We are very early in 1:35:50.439 --> 1:35:53.920 what we're getting in from Pennsylvania. I'm looking at this 1:35:54.280 --> 1:35:58.200 decision desk HQ right now, they've got five point three 1:35:58.320 --> 1:36:03.000 four percent. In my understanding is this is likely mail 1:36:03.080 --> 1:36:07.000 in vote that they're counting in Pennsylvania first. Is there 1:36:07.040 --> 1:36:09.840 anything that you can read into those results, because that's 1:36:09.880 --> 1:36:12.240 obviously maybe the race of the night. To take a 1:36:12.240 --> 1:36:18.840 look at Pennsylvania, I would avoid No, I mean okay there, 1:36:20.080 --> 1:36:24.160 I mean it really was until at really in twenty twenty, 1:36:24.200 --> 1:36:27.160 it wasn't called for Joe Biden until the Friday or 1:36:27.200 --> 1:36:31.360 Saturday after the election. So I don't think we'll have 1:36:31.439 --> 1:36:35.840 to wait that long. But the thing, every state is 1:36:36.400 --> 1:36:39.479 sort of different in terms of how it counts its vote, 1:36:39.640 --> 1:36:43.080 so just something to keep in mind. So I think 1:36:43.160 --> 1:36:46.120 in a state with Pennsylvania, they may just be counting 1:36:46.160 --> 1:36:49.360 all their mail in votes first. So yeah, go ahead, 1:36:49.400 --> 1:36:51.719 sicker Miles. What do you make of the college dynamic 1:36:51.760 --> 1:36:53.880 in Georgia that you were talking about, and how will 1:36:53.920 --> 1:36:56.959 that bear out whenever we're looking there also in Arizona 1:36:57.000 --> 1:36:59.720 and some of the other key Bell Weather states. Yeah, 1:37:00.160 --> 1:37:03.719 it's it's well, it's basically that same group of more 1:37:03.760 --> 1:37:08.320 college educated white vote voters who you know, a lot 1:37:08.320 --> 1:37:13.080 of those voters used to be Republicans like Democrats a 1:37:13.080 --> 1:37:17.240 bit more now. So to me, the big question is, yes, 1:37:17.360 --> 1:37:19.840 I can see a lot of those going for Governor Kemp, 1:37:20.600 --> 1:37:23.439 but how many of them are going to stick with 1:37:23.560 --> 1:37:25.960 Warnock and how many of them are going going to 1:37:26.040 --> 1:37:28.760 sort of hold their nose and sort of vote for 1:37:28.800 --> 1:37:34.639 herschel Walker. It looks like, again these results are very early. 1:37:35.520 --> 1:37:39.240 You know. It looks like Warnock is at least matching 1:37:39.280 --> 1:37:44.920 what Joe Biden got in the Atlanta area, So it's 1:37:44.960 --> 1:37:47.960 going to be very close. Okay, I got another one 1:37:47.960 --> 1:37:53.160 for you, miles. How about North Carolina. We've got Sherry Beasley, 1:37:53.400 --> 1:37:56.280 who in some polls you know, was running even I 1:37:56.320 --> 1:37:58.519 saw a couple of polls that had her up over 1:37:58.880 --> 1:38:02.559 Republicans had bud Right. Now, you've got fifty four percent 1:38:02.680 --> 1:38:05.519 in there, and she has a sizeable lead, fifty two 1:38:05.520 --> 1:38:09.599 percent to forty six percent roughly. How do they count 1:38:09.640 --> 1:38:13.160 their ballots? Where are those votes coming from? What do 1:38:13.200 --> 1:38:16.519 you think of her performance there thus far? Sure so, no, 1:38:16.680 --> 1:38:18.759 I mean, I think she's putting up a pretty decent 1:38:18.880 --> 1:38:21.360 per performance. It was something you have to keep in 1:38:21.400 --> 1:38:24.880 mind about knowing North Carolina is there sort of like Pennsylvania. 1:38:25.000 --> 1:38:27.960 Like we were just talked talking about North Carolina is 1:38:27.960 --> 1:38:32.599 a state that basically reports its early votes first uh, 1:38:32.800 --> 1:38:36.160 and as an election day batch comes in, stuff gets 1:38:36.200 --> 1:38:40.320 more Republican. In fact, that's what basically save Donald Trump. 1:38:41.120 --> 1:38:46.080 Really twenty twenty, Joe Bonden won the early and mail 1:38:46.120 --> 1:38:49.360 in vote, but Donald Trump got sixty five percent of 1:38:49.400 --> 1:38:52.040 the election day vote and that's what sort of killed 1:38:52.080 --> 1:38:55.479 the Democrats there. So you know, we'll see, I mean, 1:38:55.560 --> 1:38:59.559 what's what's you know, what's really interesting is I'm looking 1:38:59.640 --> 1:39:04.320 at a like, oh, like this would be Wake, which 1:39:04.400 --> 1:39:06.880 is the capital Raleigh. You know that used to be 1:39:07.000 --> 1:39:11.839 sort of a marginal county. Beasley's at over seventy percent 1:39:11.920 --> 1:39:15.479 there and She's probably gonna at least get over sixty. 1:39:16.240 --> 1:39:18.599 So you know, we're really seeing this sort of urban 1:39:18.760 --> 1:39:22.840 versus a rural trend in North Carolina. That's interesting, Miles. 1:39:23.240 --> 1:39:25.880 As the polls close around nine o'clock, and then further 1:39:26.200 --> 1:39:27.720 what are some of the things that people should keep 1:39:27.760 --> 1:39:30.080 in mind as some of the information comes in. I'm 1:39:30.120 --> 1:39:32.280 thinking of places like Wisconsin. I think a lot of 1:39:32.320 --> 1:39:34.800 eyes are going to be on the Midwest there, also 1:39:34.920 --> 1:39:37.160 in Arizona, and then even you know, I heard some 1:39:37.240 --> 1:39:40.439 rumblings around Washington and things like that. So any thoughts 1:39:40.439 --> 1:39:44.200 as we think even more further west of the country. Yeah, 1:39:44.280 --> 1:39:47.200 it's well, what you have to keep in mind is 1:39:47.640 --> 1:39:52.280 voting by mail east before twenty twenty has been more 1:39:52.280 --> 1:39:55.519 of a West coast thing, So Arizona is going to 1:39:55.600 --> 1:39:58.880 take several days to count's about So I would just 1:39:58.920 --> 1:40:02.800 tell people would be Pati, Okay, yeah, that makes one 1:40:02.840 --> 1:40:05.760 more for you before we let you go for now, 1:40:05.960 --> 1:40:10.040 Miles is Ohio. You know this was a big Democratic hope. 1:40:10.479 --> 1:40:13.160 This is a state that is trended hard to the right. 1:40:13.479 --> 1:40:15.559 You know, there were some polls showing Joe Biden having 1:40:15.680 --> 1:40:18.040 chance of winning Ohio in the final days of that campaign. 1:40:18.080 --> 1:40:19.880 That obviously didn't work out. I think Trump won the 1:40:19.880 --> 1:40:23.040 state by about eight points in the final days. It 1:40:23.080 --> 1:40:26.200 seemed like jad Vans was really pulling away from Tim Ryan. 1:40:26.640 --> 1:40:29.439 Were again in a situation where it was very early. 1:40:29.560 --> 1:40:33.000 We've got only nineteen percent in Tim Ryan at sixty 1:40:33.040 --> 1:40:36.840 percent JD Vans at forty percent. How is Tim Ryan 1:40:36.920 --> 1:40:40.040 or can you even tell at this point running versus 1:40:40.120 --> 1:40:43.880 how Joe Biden ran in twenty twenty. What I would 1:40:43.880 --> 1:40:47.840 say is it's actually looking a lot like what we 1:40:47.880 --> 1:40:51.280 had two years ago, because remember early on election n 1:40:51.400 --> 1:40:53.760 Boden was up about ten points there. You know, that's 1:40:53.800 --> 1:40:58.000 about where Ja where Tim Ron is now only for 1:40:58.160 --> 1:41:02.519 those election day votes in and give it to Donald Trump. 1:41:02.560 --> 1:41:06.760 So I can see I can see Van's pulp on 1:41:06.960 --> 1:41:11.280 off to me, the value for Tim Ryan, uh, you know, 1:41:11.360 --> 1:41:14.760 may have been this is a state that republic at 1:41:14.880 --> 1:41:18.200 least he made it into a race. Republicans had to 1:41:18.240 --> 1:41:21.680 spend millions of dollars there just to shore up Ohio. 1:41:22.800 --> 1:41:26.040 Maybe those millions who had they run a better candidate 1:41:26.560 --> 1:41:29.360 could have gone to a state like New Hampshire or 1:41:29.439 --> 1:41:33.120 North Carolina or Nevada or Georgia, basically a state that 1:41:33.800 --> 1:41:36.799 may be more decisive in terms of control of the Senate. 1:41:37.400 --> 1:41:39.840 Got it, well, great point. We're going to check in 1:41:39.880 --> 1:41:42.639 with you, possibly in another hour. Producers will be in touch. 1:41:42.680 --> 1:41:45.840 But man, so so helpful. We always love having you 1:41:45.880 --> 1:41:48.559 on the show. All right, thank you' all, Thank you 1:41:48.640 --> 1:41:52.519 very much. So New Hampshire. Yeah, I mean takeaways from 1:41:52.560 --> 1:41:56.080 Miles is that the blowout has not yet appeared. It's 1:41:56.160 --> 1:42:00.360 possible could materialize. But given his knowledge of exactly where 1:42:00.360 --> 1:42:02.960 the election was in twenty twenty, things to look for, 1:42:03.120 --> 1:42:06.680 the fact that Maggie Hassen outperforming Biden, I might have 1:42:06.760 --> 1:42:08.840 to eat grow on this one. I really thought that 1:42:08.840 --> 1:42:11.040 that one might be one of the flips. It's not 1:42:11.400 --> 1:42:15.080 just that she's out performing again. Biden won that state 1:42:15.120 --> 1:42:17.760 by more than seven points. It was not close. That's right. 1:42:18.280 --> 1:42:20.720 This was really coming down the stretch of jump ball 1:42:20.800 --> 1:42:23.559 in terms of what the polls were saying. So what 1:42:23.600 --> 1:42:26.800 that is reflecting is actually a miss on the polls, right, 1:42:26.960 --> 1:42:31.280 but underestimating the Democrats, which is something that we saw 1:42:31.320 --> 1:42:34.800 in a couple of those special elections that got Democrats 1:42:34.880 --> 1:42:38.519 really really super hopeful right after Roe versus Wade. So 1:42:38.800 --> 1:42:41.600 that's that is pretty stunning to me. How much of 1:42:41.640 --> 1:42:45.719 this is a function of, like, you know, there's early 1:42:45.800 --> 1:42:48.480 voting in a lot of these states, and the polls 1:42:48.600 --> 1:42:51.360 the further back you go, the more favorable they are 1:42:51.360 --> 1:42:53.600 too Democrats, correct, So how much of this can we 1:42:53.640 --> 1:42:56.400 attribute to that? Do you think in New Hampshire? Well, 1:42:56.400 --> 1:42:59.040 in New hamp anywhere we're seeing democratic Hampshire in particular, 1:42:59.080 --> 1:43:01.960 you said they don't really early, they don't all, yeah, 1:43:02.000 --> 1:43:06.200 which was why September so like voting hadn't quite yeah, 1:43:06.200 --> 1:43:08.640 but I mean that was part of why Democrats were 1:43:08.680 --> 1:43:11.240 getting really nervous and Republicans were getting really hopeful about 1:43:11.280 --> 1:43:13.640 New Hampshire is exactly that dynamic you're talking about in 1:43:13.680 --> 1:43:16.120 a lot of other states. They were able to bank 1:43:16.280 --> 1:43:19.760 votes while their positioning was a bit more favorable than 1:43:19.800 --> 1:43:22.240 it seemed to erode down the stretch. But you know, 1:43:22.439 --> 1:43:24.920 I mean what Miles is saying there, and I think 1:43:25.000 --> 1:43:27.719 it's really important to have a lot of caveats in because, 1:43:28.080 --> 1:43:31.000 as I try to say, every like five minutes each 1:43:31.040 --> 1:43:33.559 of these states counts votes differently. It's very hard to tell. 1:43:33.640 --> 1:43:36.160 Are these mail in ballots are the day of ballots 1:43:36.200 --> 1:43:38.759 like that could shift everything, that could really change the picture, 1:43:38.760 --> 1:43:43.800 et cetera. But he's saying in New Hampshire, in Georgia, 1:43:43.840 --> 1:43:47.599 and in North Carolina, at least the Democratic candidates are 1:43:47.600 --> 1:43:51.519 actually out running Joe Biden, and in North Carolina, Joe 1:43:51.560 --> 1:43:54.559 Biden did not lose by all that much. I mean, 1:43:54.560 --> 1:43:57.280 that ended up being a very close race. So to 1:43:57.320 --> 1:44:00.280 be honest with you, I never really bought the poles 1:44:00.360 --> 1:44:03.920 that had the Democrat in striking distance in the state 1:44:03.960 --> 1:44:06.639 of North Carolina. But at least where we sit right 1:44:06.720 --> 1:44:10.160 now with some fifty eight percent in apparently she's really 1:44:10.240 --> 1:44:13.000 got a shot. That is. Yeah. Look, it's very interesting. 1:44:13.160 --> 1:44:15.040 I don't know. I mean, my takeaway from Miles is 1:44:15.400 --> 1:44:17.320 kind of what I expected, which is that it's going 1:44:17.360 --> 1:44:20.760 to be complicated. I he's to be multifaceted. I was 1:44:20.880 --> 1:44:24.519 not expecting the quote unquote read tsunami. In terms of 1:44:24.560 --> 1:44:27.559 the New Hampshire vote apparently is still only fifteen percent. 1:44:27.960 --> 1:44:31.400 And so I think that's also the question about early vote, 1:44:31.479 --> 1:44:34.759 about the mail in ballots, about when exactly they reported 1:44:35.000 --> 1:44:37.560 the counting. I mean, it has turned into a b 1:44:37.920 --> 1:44:40.320 Hampshire is the one that must be that should be 1:44:40.400 --> 1:44:43.599 the most clear because they don't really have early vote. 1:44:43.800 --> 1:44:47.240 So if he's saying she's out pacing where Biden is, 1:44:47.360 --> 1:44:50.280 I mean, maybe one thing that could be going on 1:44:50.960 --> 1:44:53.519 is the places that are being counted right now are 1:44:53.600 --> 1:44:56.920 the college educated more college educated parts of the state. 1:44:57.160 --> 1:44:59.040 But overall, as he points out, I mean, New Hampshire 1:44:59.040 --> 1:45:02.559 demographically in terms of college education, is more favorable dem 1:45:02.760 --> 1:45:06.040 territory anyway. And so that's kind of consistent with what 1:45:06.080 --> 1:45:09.680 we saw in that upstate New York special election and 1:45:09.760 --> 1:45:12.280 a couple of the other special elections as well, where 1:45:12.280 --> 1:45:15.200 they happened to be in areas that had highly college 1:45:15.320 --> 1:45:17.360 educated where you might have some college towns, there is 1:45:17.400 --> 1:45:20.040 a huge surgeon turnout, and so it would kind of 1:45:20.040 --> 1:45:22.800 fit that you might have that same dynamic in the 1:45:22.800 --> 1:45:25.160 state of New Hampshire. So I mean, look, this is 1:45:25.200 --> 1:45:28.360 the simple question to what do you attribute this, assuming 1:45:28.360 --> 1:45:30.800 it's real for a second, right to what Let's wait, 1:45:31.600 --> 1:45:34.439 we just don't know, man. It's like I just si 1:45:35.560 --> 1:45:42.400 soccer if it turns out to be Democrats when George 1:45:42.439 --> 1:45:47.640 when North Carolina win New Hampshire. Let's not get crazy 1:45:47.760 --> 1:45:51.160 if they outperform what the polls are saying and they 1:45:51.240 --> 1:45:53.280 end up holding the Senate, which I think is the 1:45:53.320 --> 1:45:57.200 best that they could possibly hope run the situation. What's 1:45:57.200 --> 1:45:59.479 your theory abortion? It's abord, it would be abortion. I 1:45:59.479 --> 1:46:01.479 think it would be the I mean, look, I actually 1:46:01.520 --> 1:46:03.280 had this pulled up in order to pivot the discussion. 1:46:03.320 --> 1:46:06.080 But actually give us exactly thirty five percent of the 1:46:06.160 --> 1:46:08.320 vote is in in the state of Kentucky right now. 1:46:08.520 --> 1:46:11.760 The abortion Amendment, which would state there is no right 1:46:11.840 --> 1:46:14.280 to an abortion or any requirement to fund abortion in 1:46:14.320 --> 1:46:17.519 the state constitution, is currently the no is leading in 1:46:17.600 --> 1:46:20.000 fifty six percent. In order to make sure that the 1:46:20.240 --> 1:46:23.920 so look, you have a Republican state where rand Paul 1:46:24.160 --> 1:46:28.320 was literally declared the winner, where they are underwater by fifteen. 1:46:28.400 --> 1:46:31.200 Look again, thirty five percent of the votes that are in. 1:46:31.320 --> 1:46:32.960 I do think that if the Dems hold on to 1:46:33.000 --> 1:46:36.000 the Senate, it will be one hundred percent attributable to 1:46:36.080 --> 1:46:39.519 abortion and Crystal we will have to frankly say, hey, 1:46:39.680 --> 1:46:41.240 you know that one hundred million or so that you 1:46:41.280 --> 1:46:46.320 spent on abortion, not only again that is a big if, 1:46:46.360 --> 1:46:48.080 and I do think we should really hold it, especially 1:46:48.120 --> 1:46:50.080 with the West coast. Like, given the fact that Arizona 1:46:50.080 --> 1:46:52.280 and Nevada are going to come in so late, some 1:46:52.320 --> 1:46:54.799 of our discussion just could reflect the East coast bias. 1:46:55.000 --> 1:46:57.040 I do think those are really going to change, and 1:46:57.080 --> 1:46:59.920 it could reflect that earlier. I mean, I do like's 1:47:00.120 --> 1:47:01.920 be clear, like no one is saying this is the 1:47:01.920 --> 1:47:06.160 reality that's happening. But if things continue to trend in 1:47:06.200 --> 1:47:09.280 this direction, I would say abortion is the pivot point. 1:47:09.320 --> 1:47:11.200 But I would also say, and this kind of ties 1:47:11.240 --> 1:47:15.800 into the candidate quality issue, it's a general sense of 1:47:15.880 --> 1:47:20.559 GOP extremism with these specific candidates. Yeah. I mean, first 1:47:20.600 --> 1:47:22.840 of all, to your point talker about Kentucky, this is 1:47:22.840 --> 1:47:25.479 why I love direct democracy. Like, one of the data 1:47:25.520 --> 1:47:28.080 points that always stuck out in my mind was when 1:47:28.160 --> 1:47:31.040 Donald Trump won Florida in twenty twenty, you also had 1:47:31.040 --> 1:47:34.600 a fifteen dollars minimum wage, a direct valvotative passed with 1:47:34.800 --> 1:47:38.720 sixty percent of the vote. So and to your point, Crystal, yeah, 1:47:38.720 --> 1:47:41.679 I mean, look, so you have a Republican Supreme Court 1:47:41.680 --> 1:47:44.360 overturning roll versus weight, and then another thing that stuck 1:47:44.360 --> 1:47:45.600 out to me after the fact. I don't know how 1:47:45.640 --> 1:47:48.120 many Americans know this, but it really stuck with me. 1:47:48.600 --> 1:47:51.240 You had a vote in the House on gay marriage. 1:47:51.439 --> 1:47:54.519 One hundred and fifty seven Republicans voted against it, right 1:47:54.520 --> 1:47:57.679 one hundred Here, one hundred and ninety five Republicans voted 1:47:57.720 --> 1:48:00.840 against a right to contraception. So they want, you know, 1:48:00.880 --> 1:48:03.400 a state like Mississippi or Alabama or whoever, to be 1:48:03.400 --> 1:48:05.240 able to say no, you can't buy condoms, you can't 1:48:05.240 --> 1:48:07.680 buy the pill, you can't buy Plan B. So this 1:48:07.760 --> 1:48:09.759 is I mean, look, and this is why I've always 1:48:09.840 --> 1:48:13.760 argued Democrats need to embrace freedom, they need to be 1:48:13.800 --> 1:48:15.960 the onest. Actually, no, we are in favor freedom. They 1:48:15.960 --> 1:48:18.160 are not in favor freedom. You've got a candidate who 1:48:18.160 --> 1:48:20.640 has been using that rhetoric and it seems like kind 1:48:20.640 --> 1:48:23.400 of a wash. But this is Gavin Newsom's whole play 1:48:23.439 --> 1:48:26.559 because he's spending right a lot money on ads in Florida. 1:48:26.560 --> 1:48:28.000 But I think that the broad thing that gets I 1:48:28.040 --> 1:48:31.160 think this gets to why this political moment is frustrating, 1:48:31.200 --> 1:48:34.639 because Republicans are being rewarded because they're out of power, 1:48:34.880 --> 1:48:37.360 and our system punishes whoever is in the driver's seat 1:48:37.960 --> 1:48:40.080 if Republicans do well, Democrats are doing well in twenty 1:48:40.120 --> 1:48:42.560 twenty six or twenty twenty eight, and vice versa and 1:48:42.680 --> 1:48:44.400 vice versa. And if we're looking at previous areas of 1:48:44.439 --> 1:48:49.639 American politics, you just won Reagan just won FDR just one, 1:48:49.760 --> 1:48:52.920 Kennedy LBJ just one. And just the lack of anyone 1:48:52.960 --> 1:48:55.880 just to actually control it is the central issue. So 1:48:55.880 --> 1:48:57.760 here's an interesting insight from nay con I was trying 1:48:57.760 --> 1:49:00.840 to bring up that actually speaks to J. Miles Holman's point. 1:49:00.880 --> 1:49:03.439 He says, quote, so far Democrats are running ahead of 1:49:03.439 --> 1:49:07.240 expectations outside of Florida in places with a meaningful vote, 1:49:07.240 --> 1:49:09.840 which may still be contaminated with early votes, but they 1:49:09.840 --> 1:49:12.599 are running way behind in Florida, so it is almost 1:49:12.720 --> 1:49:17.040 entirely canceling out. So the parathetical is worth worth taking seriously, 1:49:17.360 --> 1:49:21.400 which is that there isn't much that's unequivocally done outside 1:49:21.439 --> 1:49:27.120 of Florida right now, so early vote contamination could risk 1:49:27.240 --> 1:49:30.519 remains very real in terms of the North Carolina results 1:49:30.520 --> 1:49:32.120 and all those things that were here. Let me get 1:49:32.920 --> 1:49:36.080 New Hampshire of course accepted, given their unique state there. 1:49:36.160 --> 1:49:38.759 Let me give you a couple of the specific numbers 1:49:38.760 --> 1:49:42.240 from New Hampshire, because that's the one that's probably the 1:49:42.280 --> 1:49:45.679 most clean since they don't have a significant early vote 1:49:46.800 --> 1:49:49.000 in I don't know any of these towns. I'm sorry, 1:49:49.000 --> 1:49:50.800 I'm probably gonna butcher all of the names. Not a 1:49:50.800 --> 1:49:52.679 big New Hampshire stand I mean, I have no problem 1:49:52.720 --> 1:49:54.240 with New Hampshire. I just don't know the state that well. 1:49:54.280 --> 1:49:57.400 That's what I'm trying to say here, Okay, Brookline, Biden 1:49:57.520 --> 1:50:02.560 was plus seven. Maggie Hassen is plus nine. In New Ipswich. 1:50:03.880 --> 1:50:07.280 I loved you. I love that sounds delicious, by the way, Yeah, 1:50:07.280 --> 1:50:09.080 I would love an Ipswich. Hey live for your head. 1:50:09.200 --> 1:50:13.280 I love Trump won by thirty six. Bullduck is actually 1:50:13.320 --> 1:50:17.880 outperforming Trump a bit plus forty in a Cippy Trump 1:50:17.920 --> 1:50:20.960 plus twenty one, Bullduck underperforming him a little bit plus nineteen. 1:50:21.160 --> 1:50:26.520 In Sumrsworth Biden plus fourteen, Hassen plus twenty. In Hillsboro, 1:50:26.800 --> 1:50:31.000 Trump plus eight, Bullduck underperforming him plus so Bolduck plus three. 1:50:32.120 --> 1:50:34.639 In the state capitol of Concord, which has ninety four 1:50:34.680 --> 1:50:39.840 percent reporting, Hassen is at sixty seven percent. Bullduck is 1:50:39.880 --> 1:50:44.280 at thirty point nine percent. So D plus thirty seven 1:50:44.880 --> 1:50:47.280 in a town that last time around was D plus 1:50:47.360 --> 1:50:52.200 thirty two. So it looks like a pretty consistent trend 1:50:52.240 --> 1:50:54.880 in New Hampshire. I got one more for you here 1:50:54.920 --> 1:50:58.200 in this thread. This is from Ryan Matsumoto, who is 1:50:58.240 --> 1:51:01.640 a contributing analyst at Inside Elections Bylines at five thirty eight, 1:51:01.640 --> 1:51:03.439 et cetera, et cetera. Anyway, I just want to give 1:51:03.439 --> 1:51:06.479 the guy credit. The town of Fitzwilliam, New Hampshire is 1:51:06.520 --> 1:51:09.760 now ninety five percent reporting, so very close to all in. 1:51:10.200 --> 1:51:13.240 Boldock is narrowly ahead here forty nine point one percent 1:51:13.280 --> 1:51:16.960 to Hassince forty seven point eight percent. That's our plus 1:51:17.040 --> 1:51:19.639 one point three in a town that was our one 1:51:19.680 --> 1:51:25.360 point two in twenty twenty. So Boldock is not outperforming Trump, 1:51:25.600 --> 1:51:30.519 but Hassen seems to be outperforming Biden. And this was 1:51:30.560 --> 1:51:32.960 one of the other questions is like, you know, part 1:51:33.000 --> 1:51:36.320 of what we've seen in twenty sixteen, twenty eighteen, and 1:51:36.360 --> 1:51:40.360 twenty twenty is that Democrats are super enthusiastic. They you know, 1:51:40.439 --> 1:51:42.880 push their margins up in their places, but it's matched 1:51:42.880 --> 1:51:47.160 by Republican enthusiasm in rural counties, at least in New Hampshire. 1:51:47.200 --> 1:51:49.439 Based on the numbers we have right now, you know, 1:51:49.560 --> 1:51:52.640 this looks very good for Maggie Hassen and Democrats have 1:51:52.720 --> 1:51:56.040 to be encouraged that at the very least they're not 1:51:56.120 --> 1:51:59.680 going to be facing the red tsunami that they were 1:51:59.720 --> 1:52:02.400 starting to really be afraid of. Yes point so far 1:52:02.439 --> 1:52:03.920 and what we've seen, so we have a little bit 1:52:03.920 --> 1:52:06.040 more vote coming from Georgia that I can read off. 1:52:06.040 --> 1:52:07.720 We got about forty eight percent of the vote in, 1:52:07.760 --> 1:52:09.280 so we're getting a bit of a better idea and 1:52:09.320 --> 1:52:12.240 it is tightening it up exactly as we expected. So 1:52:12.320 --> 1:52:14.439 we've got two point one million votes that are in 1:52:14.520 --> 1:52:17.439 right now. Warnock is currently at fifty percent, herschel Walker 1:52:17.479 --> 1:52:19.640 at forty eight percent, and exactly to the point that 1:52:19.680 --> 1:52:21.600 you make Crystal only one point seven percent of the 1:52:21.640 --> 1:52:23.880 vote right now going to the libertarian So we are 1:52:23.880 --> 1:52:26.920 talking at a margin here of really we got one million, 1:52:27.040 --> 1:52:30.160 fifty seven thousand votes there for Raphael Warnock one million, 1:52:30.280 --> 1:52:33.240 nineteen thousand votes for herschel Wats. So it's a dead heat. 1:52:33.280 --> 1:52:35.840 I mean, it is close, and the closer and the 1:52:35.880 --> 1:52:40.040 more that we get to the full counting of you know, 1:52:40.120 --> 1:52:42.400 all of the mail in ballots and absentee and all 1:52:42.439 --> 1:52:44.800 that counted along with in day. We are just going 1:52:44.880 --> 1:52:46.439 to see that. It's I think it's going to take 1:52:46.439 --> 1:52:49.040 a while in terms of go ahead, go ahead, Kyle, Yeah. 1:52:49.040 --> 1:52:51.720 Can I give you guys an Ohio update real fast? Yees? Yeah, 1:52:51.720 --> 1:52:54.920 go ahead. So we have thirty four percent in and 1:52:55.280 --> 1:52:58.640 Ryan leads Vance by ten points right now. Wow. But 1:52:58.720 --> 1:53:01.200 I will say this is effectively this is like the 1:53:01.200 --> 1:53:05.599 blue miragement networks in Ohio. The way they count the votes, 1:53:05.640 --> 1:53:07.280 and so what you're going to see is as more 1:53:07.400 --> 1:53:09.160 votes come in, Vance is going to close that gap. 1:53:09.200 --> 1:53:10.920 Close that gap, close that gap, and then the question 1:53:11.040 --> 1:53:15.240 is will you overtake him? And if so by how much? Look? 1:53:15.720 --> 1:53:17.680 I think what goes to what Miles said, which is 1:53:17.680 --> 1:53:19.760 that you know he was Trump was down by ten 1:53:20.080 --> 1:53:22.839 then the vote came in. Actually, if I recall from Ohio, 1:53:22.920 --> 1:53:25.519 Trump ended up beating expectations in a historic degree. There 1:53:25.560 --> 1:53:27.759 was I forget exactly how to pronounce is it mahoning, 1:53:27.880 --> 1:53:31.240 mahoning count mahon mahone counting, Sorry, no, mahoning, You're right, 1:53:31.800 --> 1:53:35.880 all right, I don't mean any disrespect. The point is 1:53:35.880 --> 1:53:38.840 is that Trump won it in twenty sixteen or sorry, 1:53:38.840 --> 1:53:40.439 it didn't win in twenty sixteen, it was seen as 1:53:40.439 --> 1:53:42.599 a belt. Whether he ended up winning it in twenty twenty, 1:53:42.640 --> 1:53:44.640 which was seen as a big kind of it was 1:53:44.680 --> 1:53:47.320 an affirmation of his candidacy because I think there was 1:53:47.360 --> 1:53:49.519 like some GM things that were going on there. My 1:53:49.600 --> 1:53:52.200 point being that that didn't come until later in the night. 1:53:52.400 --> 1:53:54.479 So that's something that we have to pay attention to 1:53:54.840 --> 1:53:56.920 in general. Though I guess I'm being this is just 1:53:56.920 --> 1:53:59.559 a stark reminder of like how long it can take 1:53:59.600 --> 1:54:02.320 on electnight for some of this stuff to come in, 1:54:02.439 --> 1:54:05.760 especially given the dynamics of the way that people all vote. Now, 1:54:06.360 --> 1:54:09.880 we really don't have that many competitive states with all 1:54:09.880 --> 1:54:11.519 that much the vote in, so I'll just read it off. 1:54:11.560 --> 1:54:14.240 Pennsylvania is only at nine percent, Fetterman is up by 1:54:14.479 --> 1:54:17.240 seventy five. So if you really want to cling to Hope, 1:54:17.479 --> 1:54:21.040 stop the count. I guess if you're a pahm Ohio, 1:54:21.360 --> 1:54:23.240 you said only thirty five percent of the vote in 1:54:23.560 --> 1:54:26.360 Georgia right now is in forty nine. The real stunner, 1:54:26.400 --> 1:54:30.040 I guess is North Carolina Crystal. You've got Sherry Beasley 1:54:30.439 --> 1:54:34.320 up by at fifty percent to Ted Budd's forty eight percent, 1:54:34.520 --> 1:54:37.040 and that's with about sixty percent of the vote which 1:54:37.080 --> 1:54:39.880 is in now again, you could have the eve vote, 1:54:39.960 --> 1:54:42.720 the election day vote. It just comes in massively at 1:54:42.720 --> 1:54:45.000 the end and it's a total blowout. But I have 1:54:45.120 --> 1:54:47.200 a little bit closer there than I think a lot 1:54:47.240 --> 1:54:50.440 of other people had anticipated for the House of Representatives. 1:54:50.440 --> 1:54:53.120 Just to keep everybody updated, I don't have the official number, 1:54:53.320 --> 1:54:55.880 but you do have a decent amount of flips which 1:54:55.880 --> 1:54:59.080 have happened here so far. I guess the best one 1:54:59.080 --> 1:55:01.440 to go with is actually the New York Times needle. 1:55:01.760 --> 1:55:05.080 If everybody will remember this, Oh, I remember the needle, 1:55:05.480 --> 1:55:08.200 the infamous needle. It took it away, right, No, no no, 1:55:08.440 --> 1:55:11.880 they took it away from it. They took they did 1:55:11.920 --> 1:55:14.720 actually bring it back. So then they brought it here. 1:55:14.840 --> 1:55:18.080 Oh no, wow, the needle crashed out. That's actually kind 1:55:18.080 --> 1:55:22.160 of crazy. Oh really, okay, I was just looking stopped 1:55:22.160 --> 1:55:24.000 the count, all right, two minutes ago. I looked at 1:55:24.000 --> 1:55:26.440 the needle. I took a little peek, and it was 1:55:26.480 --> 1:55:28.480 in toss up, but it was a little bit towards 1:55:28.520 --> 1:55:31.160 the Democrats, but really tossed up, right, Yeah, I was 1:55:31.160 --> 1:55:35.120 talking about the House. It was like it was lean Republican, 1:55:35.560 --> 1:55:37.360 but it wasn't like likely. We probably was just over 1:55:37.440 --> 1:55:41.360 and lean Republicans. Five have a real time updating thing, 1:55:41.400 --> 1:55:43.440 though New York Times is the only one, the only honestly, 1:55:43.480 --> 1:55:46.120 it is very useful, but it is also it crashes 1:55:46.120 --> 1:55:48.320 all the time. And of course all the Dems freaking 1:55:48.320 --> 1:55:51.560 out from twenty sixteen uh that were saying this. Nate Cone, 1:55:51.600 --> 1:55:53.600 by the way, for those who are needle watchers, says 1:55:53.760 --> 1:55:56.640 we need to pull the needle off. Louisiana appears to 1:55:56.640 --> 1:55:59.280 have been coded as Democratic at some point, adding an 1:55:59.280 --> 1:56:02.880 extra seat for them. All other streates would be unaffective. 1:56:03.040 --> 1:56:05.520 Come on, you guys, have one job on. You can't. 1:56:05.920 --> 1:56:07.640 You can't. This is why they took away at the 1:56:07.680 --> 1:56:10.840 needle in the first place. Yeah, that's why we can't 1:56:10.840 --> 1:56:16.160 have nice thing Spira there, Okay, come on, I've got 1:56:16.280 --> 1:56:19.480 I've got a few more New Hampshire notes for you. 1:56:20.280 --> 1:56:24.200 More positive indications for New Hampshire Democrats because it wasn't 1:56:24.240 --> 1:56:25.920 just the Senate race where they were concerned about. There 1:56:25.920 --> 1:56:29.040 were a number of congressional races they were also concerned about. 1:56:29.400 --> 1:56:33.880 And it looks like Democrats at the House level also 1:56:34.040 --> 1:56:38.360 outperforming Biden in the state of New Hampshire. New Hampshire, 1:56:38.400 --> 1:56:41.960 so you have Representative Papas remains ahead in Rochester, which 1:56:42.000 --> 1:56:44.280 Trump carried. This is from Daniel and Shanean with eighty 1:56:44.280 --> 1:56:47.920 six percent, and you have Representative Custer in Concord with 1:56:48.000 --> 1:56:50.960 eighty eight percent reporting also running ahead of Biden. So 1:56:51.480 --> 1:56:54.600 in terms of the House seats there, that's also positive 1:56:54.640 --> 1:56:58.720 news for them. I was also looking at the sort 1:56:58.720 --> 1:57:03.200 of ticket splitting dynamic, and you've got a pretty you know, 1:57:03.360 --> 1:57:08.120 pretty sizable gap both on the Kemp the Kemp Warnock voter, 1:57:08.200 --> 1:57:09.880 you've got a lot of those. You also have a 1:57:09.920 --> 1:57:14.680 good number of Shapiro Oz voters as well, already in 1:57:14.760 --> 1:57:17.960 the early vote. Now again in Pennsylvania it's all mail in, 1:57:18.040 --> 1:57:20.280 so it's like Shapiro has eighty three percent, Federman has 1:57:20.320 --> 1:57:22.240 seventy eight percent or something crazy like that, which is 1:57:22.240 --> 1:57:24.120 obviously not going to be the end result, but it 1:57:24.160 --> 1:57:27.440 shows you, even in that early mail in vote, that 1:57:27.520 --> 1:57:30.280 you do have a significant population of ticket splitters who 1:57:30.280 --> 1:57:33.000 could end up being determinative in these races. Yeah, that's 1:57:33.040 --> 1:57:35.600 pretty interesting. It is factual vote. I mean they vote 1:57:35.640 --> 1:57:38.080 based on vibes. Yeah, right, isn't that really what it is? 1:57:38.160 --> 1:57:40.840 I listened, Kyle, I made peace with that a while ago, 1:57:41.000 --> 1:57:43.520 and to be honest, I like it. I'm going to 1:57:43.560 --> 1:57:46.800 be honest, I kind of like it. I like being surprised. 1:57:46.880 --> 1:57:49.080 I like the fact that people are not as into 1:57:49.120 --> 1:57:51.080 all of this as everybody, and that the things that 1:57:51.080 --> 1:57:54.600 people vote on make them idiosyncratic and truly human. So 1:57:54.680 --> 1:57:57.800 I think that's actually a good story for America. It's 1:57:57.800 --> 1:57:59.880 a hopeful story. I mean, the I think the we 1:58:00.160 --> 1:58:02.320 this was a discussion we were talking about earlier about 1:58:02.320 --> 1:58:06.040 how the electorate fundamentally changed in twenty sixteen. And look, 1:58:06.080 --> 1:58:08.400 I mean, you can like or dislike how exactly things 1:58:08.440 --> 1:58:10.520 are trending. But what I like about that, Marshall, is 1:58:10.560 --> 1:58:11.960 like it just shows that a lot of things are 1:58:12.000 --> 1:58:14.560 up for grabs in a way that people don't as 1:58:14.600 --> 1:58:17.440 stuck as we are. To see Florida become a red 1:58:17.480 --> 1:58:20.320 state in my lifetime, and to see Wisconsin be one 1:58:20.360 --> 1:58:22.360 of those places which we now have to watch as 1:58:22.400 --> 1:58:25.760 a bell Weather say, I mean, I remember Ohio as well. 1:58:25.880 --> 1:58:29.880 Barack Obama won the state of Ohio Florida. Obama won 1:58:30.040 --> 1:58:31.880 of Florida in two thousand and eight, by three points, 1:58:31.920 --> 1:58:34.000 and he won it by two points in twenty twelve. 1:58:34.040 --> 1:58:35.960 Ten years later, we're sitting here at the desk and 1:58:36.000 --> 1:58:38.480 we're like re marveling at a fifteen point win for 1:58:38.640 --> 1:58:41.520 a Republican candidate. So it just shows me like, actually, 1:58:41.560 --> 1:58:44.000 nothing is static. Everything can change, and you know, it 1:58:44.080 --> 1:58:45.840 may not change necessarily the way that all of us 1:58:45.920 --> 1:58:48.280 necessarily want, but they can't change, and they can change 1:58:48.320 --> 1:58:51.800 significantly in a relatively short period of time. Yeah, I'm 1:58:51.800 --> 1:58:54.960 not sure it's so interesting because your point is like 1:58:55.000 --> 1:58:57.400 the fact that things can change could be a good thing. 1:58:57.440 --> 1:59:01.320 But like I kind of said earlier, I I want 1:59:01.360 --> 1:59:03.520 some I want I want someone to win a state 1:59:03.560 --> 1:59:06.000 they weren't expected to win and then actually be able 1:59:06.040 --> 1:59:11.880 to have a governing agenda. Basically the pendulum swinging back 1:59:11.920 --> 1:59:14.880 and forth for thirty years because everyone's just pissed off. 1:59:15.200 --> 1:59:21.600 That isn't that doesn't feel great. This is the you know, 1:59:22.600 --> 1:59:25.200 this another debate Kyle and I've had like eighty three times, 1:59:25.200 --> 1:59:31.160 both publicly and privately, But clearly, the neoliberal consensus is dying, 1:59:31.320 --> 1:59:33.720 at least among the public. It's dead, even as they 1:59:33.880 --> 1:59:35.880 you know, hold on to like Joe Biden as president. 1:59:36.000 --> 1:59:39.120 Clearly they still hold on to power. But what you 1:59:39.160 --> 1:59:42.640 see in these swing elections is just a rejection of 1:59:42.680 --> 1:59:45.480 this paradigm, whether it's being offered by Democrats or being 1:59:45.480 --> 1:59:48.360 offered by Republicans. It's like, ah, to help with to 1:59:48.400 --> 1:59:50.600 hell with this, We're going to try something different. And 1:59:50.680 --> 1:59:55.080 so I think until you have whatever the new paradigm, 1:59:55.360 --> 1:59:59.480 whatever the new era is actually born and like power consolidated, 1:59:59.800 --> 2:00:03.040 you're going to continue having these swings. Although I mean, listen, 2:00:03.120 --> 2:00:05.840 we have to say, like if Democrats outperform tonight in 2:00:05.920 --> 2:00:08.840 the way that might be happening, if New Hampshire is 2:00:08.880 --> 2:00:11.040 in any indication of the rest of the country, which 2:00:11.120 --> 2:00:13.240 is a big if and caveats, et cetera, et cetera. 2:00:14.200 --> 2:00:17.920 We can't deny normally the party in power in modern history, 2:00:18.120 --> 2:00:21.520 they get shellacked in the midterms, and I think it 2:00:21.600 --> 2:00:26.920 is a remarkable indictment of the Republican Party that they 2:00:26.960 --> 2:00:31.320 managed to look like this should not be in question. 2:00:31.680 --> 2:00:35.040 You have seventy percent of the country saying the country 2:00:35.080 --> 2:00:38.360 is on the wrong track. You have inflation at very 2:00:38.400 --> 2:00:41.800 high levels, you have concerns about inflation and concerns about 2:00:41.800 --> 2:00:44.480 the economy at very high levels. You have a majority 2:00:44.480 --> 2:00:47.400 of Americans saying that gas prices are hurting them financially. 2:00:47.600 --> 2:00:49.840 Right now as we speak, it's like sixty some percent 2:00:49.920 --> 2:00:53.000 saying this is hurting me. Right now, you have a 2:00:53.040 --> 2:00:55.880 president whose approval rating is quite low. It's in like 2:00:55.920 --> 2:00:59.520 the low forties right now. You look at those numbers, 2:00:59.680 --> 2:01:02.720 this come should not be in doubt. And so when 2:01:02.800 --> 2:01:05.160 I look at that, it's not. Listen, I'm gonna have 2:01:05.160 --> 2:01:07.160 to give some credits to Democrats and their strategy was 2:01:07.200 --> 2:01:08.880 better than I thought if this ends up being good 2:01:08.880 --> 2:01:11.480 for them, But I really think it is a thorough 2:01:11.640 --> 2:01:15.960 indictment of the direction of the Republican Party, which you know, 2:01:16.120 --> 2:01:18.560 really motivated people to turn out to the ballot box 2:01:18.600 --> 2:01:20.280 in a way that they normally don't in the midterm 2:01:20.320 --> 2:01:23.120 election to protect the party in power. Is it is 2:01:23.160 --> 2:01:25.680 actually fascinating to see demon go ahead, Yeah, I want to. 2:01:25.720 --> 2:01:27.840 I want to switch policy for a secon because you've 2:01:27.840 --> 2:01:30.080 talked about these previous like midterm elections, right, so we 2:01:30.160 --> 2:01:34.080 referenced the nineteen nineties, Bill Clinton gets like the first 2:01:34.120 --> 2:01:37.320 big modern shellacking, and then two years later the era 2:01:37.400 --> 2:01:39.760 of big government is over. Right, there's this big correction 2:01:40.360 --> 2:01:44.520 twenty ten, another shellacking. Obama's ambition just goes away and 2:01:44.560 --> 2:01:47.360 the presidency goes into defense. That helps you win re election, 2:01:47.480 --> 2:01:49.520 but you know, the hope and change room is over. 2:01:49.840 --> 2:01:52.400 What do you guys see as like the not what 2:01:52.440 --> 2:01:55.000 you want? Right? But what takeaway do you think the 2:01:55.000 --> 2:01:57.200 Biden people are going to take from? Let's say this 2:01:57.280 --> 2:02:00.560 like moderate tsunami we're talking. Yeah, so culture first, First 2:02:00.560 --> 2:02:03.840 of all, I love that question because I was transitioning 2:02:03.920 --> 2:02:05.720 right into the thing I wanted to bring up, which was, 2:02:06.280 --> 2:02:08.960 you know, let's say the dynamic we're talking about now 2:02:09.040 --> 2:02:10.960 holds the rest of the night and the Democrats do 2:02:11.080 --> 2:02:14.000 better than expected. I mean, I really think it just 2:02:14.480 --> 2:02:19.160 it proves that if you materially deliver for the American 2:02:19.200 --> 2:02:21.440 people to any degree, even if it's just a little bit, 2:02:21.760 --> 2:02:24.760 they're like, oh thank god, okay, I'll reward you. So 2:02:24.960 --> 2:02:26.400 let me make the case real quick. And I know 2:02:26.440 --> 2:02:29.440 this is an unpopular case. I agree that on politics 2:02:29.520 --> 2:02:32.160 Biden is a zombies half dead not good, but on 2:02:32.200 --> 2:02:34.880 policy he's way better than I thought he would be. 2:02:35.280 --> 2:02:39.880 My I mean, I had nonexistent hopes when Biden's approval 2:02:39.920 --> 2:02:42.080 rating was thirty three percent and he was doing nothing. 2:02:42.360 --> 2:02:43.840 I was like, this is what it's going to be 2:02:43.880 --> 2:02:45.360 like the rest of his time in office, and I'm 2:02:45.360 --> 2:02:48.360 going crazy over here. Then what do we get? Biden 2:02:48.440 --> 2:02:52.160 comes out and pardons we defenders. He pulls the troops 2:02:52.160 --> 2:02:55.480 out of Afghanistan. He does an executive order that raised 2:02:55.480 --> 2:02:57.680 the federal minimum wage to fifteen dollars an hour, which 2:02:57.720 --> 2:03:00.480 impacts three hundred thousand workers who are federal contractors and 2:03:00.520 --> 2:03:03.480 federal employees. He has a pro union n LRB, which 2:03:03.480 --> 2:03:06.000 has allowed this wave of unionization now to sweep the country. 2:03:06.280 --> 2:03:10.800 He's appointed anti monopolist Lena Khan to the FTC. She's 2:03:11.000 --> 2:03:13.800 currently blocking mergers. He does the Chips Act, which on 2:03:13.960 --> 2:03:16.360 shore is three hundred and fifty thousand jobs. He does 2:03:16.400 --> 2:03:19.120 the Pack Deck, which is healthcare for veterans exposed to 2:03:19.120 --> 2:03:22.480 toxic burn pits. He does gun reform, bipartisan gun reform, 2:03:22.520 --> 2:03:26.360 which includes money for red flag laws, money for school security, 2:03:26.400 --> 2:03:29.440 money for mental health treatment. He killed zawaharive Haad of 2:03:29.440 --> 2:03:32.440 al Qaeda. We know inflation is a big problem, but 2:03:32.480 --> 2:03:35.000 also at the same time, we do currently have low unemployment. 2:03:35.160 --> 2:03:38.000 Kataji Brown Jackson is on the Supreme Court. And then 2:03:38.000 --> 2:03:42.320 probably most importantly, you have the IRA, which lowered prescription 2:03:42.440 --> 2:03:45.960 drug costs for seniors. It has made an America provision 2:03:46.000 --> 2:03:49.200 for clean energy technology. There's a fifteen percent called Riminimum 2:03:49.320 --> 2:03:52.120 tax rate, a one percent tax on stock buybacks. Obamacare 2:03:52.160 --> 2:03:55.960 expansion now covers three million more people. And I mean, look, 2:03:56.000 --> 2:03:58.240 I only gave you like maybe half the list here. 2:03:58.280 --> 2:03:59.720 I can go on. But the fact of the matter is, 2:04:00.280 --> 2:04:02.520 I do think that people, when they get materially helped, 2:04:02.840 --> 2:04:05.960 they go, Okay, good, Now that's all I want from you. 2:04:06.000 --> 2:04:07.560 So now I will reward you. I will go vote 2:04:07.600 --> 2:04:09.480 for your party. Joe Biden should hire you, Kyle. It's 2:04:09.480 --> 2:04:12.120 one of the most eloquent defenses I heard of his presidency. 2:04:12.200 --> 2:04:16.720 Yet look, bros, there's another. There's another, There's another. There's 2:04:16.760 --> 2:04:18.960 another interesting takeaway here that I want people because I 2:04:18.960 --> 2:04:21.720 always I always get really annoyed when people talk about, oh, 2:04:21.800 --> 2:04:23.720 like the problem her politics is there's just like a 2:04:23.720 --> 2:04:27.800 bunch of older people, and you know, we need your incumbents. 2:04:27.840 --> 2:04:32.320 And this Joe Biden on paper should not have done anything. 2:04:32.360 --> 2:04:35.320 You just articulate. You would look at Barack Obama like 2:04:35.480 --> 2:04:38.400 he's I don't think I wrote things either, right, So 2:04:38.440 --> 2:04:40.720 I and you know, if you talk to I get 2:04:40.720 --> 2:04:42.720 really like red pill and people say, like, man, if 2:04:42.720 --> 2:04:45.120 we saw a bunch of Yoka guys like what was 2:04:45.120 --> 2:04:47.200 his name? The guy from with Carolina who lost to 2:04:47.320 --> 2:04:52.240 Madison cold. So I think I think they are like 2:04:53.280 --> 2:04:55.640 just what I always thinking of, Like, God fucking forbid, 2:04:55.760 --> 2:04:57.240 there's just something hopeful, I think. I think I think 2:04:57.240 --> 2:04:59.160 that's the thing which is hopeful there, which is that 2:04:59.680 --> 2:05:03.360 end of visuals matter more than you kind of would think. 2:05:03.000 --> 2:05:05.400 And I think there's something. I think there's something there. 2:05:05.960 --> 2:05:08.840 I don't know what I think on this question. But 2:05:08.960 --> 2:05:13.920 the other theory would be actually that it doesn't have 2:05:13.960 --> 2:05:16.240 so much to do with Biden as it does with 2:05:16.480 --> 2:05:19.640 the sort of like shifting of the era, because if 2:05:19.640 --> 2:05:21.880 you look at Joe Biden over the course of his career, 2:05:22.160 --> 2:05:24.960 you would not think this would be his presidents, right. 2:05:25.000 --> 2:05:27.200 I mean, he goes with the winds. That is, that 2:05:27.280 --> 2:05:29.400 is what he has always done, is he centered himself 2:05:29.440 --> 2:05:31.160 in the middle of the Democratic Party, tried to center 2:05:31.240 --> 2:05:33.240 himself in the middle of the electorate, and then done 2:05:33.320 --> 2:05:36.640 the thing that he thinks that you know that entails 2:05:37.000 --> 2:05:40.800 with a like basket of cliches and euphemisms or whatever 2:05:40.880 --> 2:05:43.360 from his family lore that he uses as his kind 2:05:43.360 --> 2:05:47.240 of guideposts. So to me, it's more a sign of 2:05:47.280 --> 2:05:52.720 the times that he's had a he has in certain things, 2:05:53.240 --> 2:05:59.120 he has consequentially shifted the direction of the country and 2:06:00.240 --> 2:06:03.360 in particular, I mean the NLRB and the anti trade stuff, 2:06:03.440 --> 2:06:06.680 I mean not anti trade, the anti trust stuff in particular, 2:06:06.840 --> 2:06:09.840 and and has a trade policy that is not unlike 2:06:09.880 --> 2:06:12.880 Trump's trade policy, to be perfectly honest with you, So 2:06:14.400 --> 2:06:16.920 you know, to me, there's a question or okay, is 2:06:16.920 --> 2:06:19.520 that Biden and he actually connects to an older ares 2:06:19.560 --> 2:06:21.280 more of the New Deal areas bringing some of that 2:06:21.320 --> 2:06:23.280 into his presidency and sort of like digging it up 2:06:23.320 --> 2:06:25.080 in the depths and his experience in his age is 2:06:25.080 --> 2:06:28.760 actually a benefit. Or is it that he is reflecting 2:06:29.280 --> 2:06:33.040 that we're in a different moment in America and that's 2:06:33.080 --> 2:06:36.960 where some of these policy shifts ultimately come from. I honestly, 2:06:37.000 --> 2:06:38.800 I'm sort of like on the fence about which one 2:06:38.800 --> 2:06:40.320 of those things are. But I think it could be. 2:06:40.440 --> 2:06:42.680 I think it could ultimately be either one. Let me 2:06:42.720 --> 2:06:46.640 say what they want. They won't learn the things that 2:06:46.720 --> 2:06:50.240 you just said, though even If that's true, what they're 2:06:50.320 --> 2:06:56.320 going to think is abortion in January sixth, that you know, 2:06:56.400 --> 2:06:59.440 I mean they're closing. Let me just their closing pitch 2:06:59.680 --> 2:07:02.200 was the top of the bit. Their closing pitch was 2:07:02.440 --> 2:07:06.400 democracies on the ballot January sixth election deniers. And you 2:07:06.400 --> 2:07:09.520 know what, they're not wrong because when you do look 2:07:09.560 --> 2:07:12.440 at these races, like part of why Maggie Hassen appears 2:07:12.480 --> 2:07:14.760 to be cleaning up here is because Don Bulldock is 2:07:14.760 --> 2:07:17.680 this like psycho election denier. Right. Part of the reason 2:07:17.800 --> 2:07:22.040 why you have Democrats, the base of the Democratic Party 2:07:22.120 --> 2:07:25.600 so energized to go out and vote and protect democratic 2:07:25.800 --> 2:07:29.400 power is because they truly do fear that there is 2:07:29.480 --> 2:07:33.720 like a democracy ending potential event if they don't go 2:07:33.880 --> 2:07:37.200 and do that. And that's why you do have these 2:07:37.240 --> 2:07:40.840 midterm elections with much higher enthusiasm for the party in 2:07:40.920 --> 2:07:44.680 power than you normally do. So, you know, I don't 2:07:44.680 --> 2:07:47.640 think that they're wrong to look at some of how 2:07:47.680 --> 2:07:49.880 they went all in on January's all, when all in 2:07:49.920 --> 2:07:53.880 on extremism closed with democracy on the ballot, given that 2:07:54.160 --> 2:07:58.560 Republicans were elevating so many election deniers. So, I mean, 2:07:58.760 --> 2:08:01.080 I mostly agree with what you said, the only counterpoint 2:08:01.120 --> 2:08:03.920 I would make is if, for example, we get the 2:08:03.960 --> 2:08:05.680 numbers on this election and we see that there was 2:08:05.720 --> 2:08:08.360 a giant surge in young people showing up to vote. Yeah, 2:08:08.360 --> 2:08:09.680 and I would say, you know what, maybe this has 2:08:09.720 --> 2:08:11.040 something to do with the student loan debt reduction, and 2:08:11.080 --> 2:08:12.440 maybe it just has to do with like weed pardons 2:08:12.480 --> 2:08:15.120 for example. So that's substantive. And then the second point is, 2:08:15.440 --> 2:08:17.840 even if I grant you the point you made, I 2:08:17.960 --> 2:08:20.800 do think that, you know, running on the abortion stuff, 2:08:20.800 --> 2:08:22.080 even tho I don't think it should be the whole 2:08:22.120 --> 2:08:24.840 picture of what they ran on, it is substantive because 2:08:24.880 --> 2:08:27.720 it's fundamentally an argument for No, we want to be 2:08:27.760 --> 2:08:31.080 the freedom people. If we're if we're now descheduling weed, 2:08:31.160 --> 2:08:33.760 that means we want to increase your social freedoms. We're 2:08:33.800 --> 2:08:36.240 the pro choice party, we want to increase your social freedoms. 2:08:36.440 --> 2:08:38.880 You know. And again, this is an argument I'd love 2:08:38.920 --> 2:08:42.880 to see them embrace wholeheartedly. Because my politics, you can 2:08:42.920 --> 2:08:46.720 boil it down to, I believe in economic patriotism and 2:08:47.800 --> 2:08:50.560 freedom on the social front, social freedom, and so I 2:08:50.600 --> 2:08:54.120 think those two things together are I mean, are winner 2:08:54.160 --> 2:08:56.400 could be an interesting thing Okay, so it is nine 2:08:56.440 --> 2:08:59.600 pm or it's nine point nine specifically, so that we 2:09:00.040 --> 2:09:03.840 off everything that has now closed. Arizona nine pm Eastern 2:09:03.840 --> 2:09:06.120 Standard time are officially closed. It's about to get fun 2:09:06.200 --> 2:09:13.560 here people. Colorado officially closed, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, 2:09:13.840 --> 2:09:16.720 New Mexico, New York, which, by the way, we have 2:09:16.760 --> 2:09:19.760 to watch because that was also predicted as possibly closer 2:09:19.760 --> 2:09:22.400 than people thought, especially with Leez Elden and Kathy Hochel, 2:09:22.600 --> 2:09:27.920 North Dakota, South Dakota, Texas, Wisconsin, and Wyoming. So Georgia, 2:09:28.120 --> 2:09:29.840 New York isn't going to count their votes, I like, 2:09:29.880 --> 2:09:35.480 didn't like two months. They'll don't hold your breath host 2:09:35.560 --> 2:09:39.680 Inauguration day. They will eventually inform US election. Fifty eight 2:09:39.720 --> 2:09:42.160 percent of the vote now currently and in Georgia, so 2:09:42.480 --> 2:09:46.040 Warnock currently at fifty one percent, Herschel Walker at forty seven. 2:09:46.120 --> 2:09:48.440 But there was a big dump from a major Democratic 2:09:48.440 --> 2:09:50.600 area there. In terms of the other ones that we 2:09:50.640 --> 2:09:53.680 should pay attention to, Pennsylvania, John Fetterman soon up there, 2:09:53.680 --> 2:09:56.160 but only thirteen percent of the vote. New Hampshire holding 2:09:56.200 --> 2:10:00.320 steady at sixteen. Ohio is at forty one things much 2:10:00.320 --> 2:10:02.920 tighter now. It's at fifty one and forty nine for 2:10:03.000 --> 2:10:07.680 jam very VERYA. That's true, but there is an interesting 2:10:07.760 --> 2:10:12.640 again ticket splitting dynamic in Ohio. A third of the 2:10:12.720 --> 2:10:16.240 Ohio voted huge gap of more than twenty percentage points 2:10:16.280 --> 2:10:18.200 between the march and the Governor's race and the marchin 2:10:18.240 --> 2:10:20.080 in the center race. So you have a lot of 2:10:20.120 --> 2:10:23.600 people who are voting for Dwine the Republic, he's already 2:10:23.600 --> 2:10:27.240 been declared victory of victorious in Ohio for the governor's race, 2:10:27.560 --> 2:10:29.720 and then are voting for Tim Ryan. Let's talk about 2:10:29.760 --> 2:10:32.880 Tim We have Tim Rynan at all. Tim Ryan thoughts, Oh, 2:10:32.920 --> 2:10:34.760 I think he ran a phenomenal campaign, and I'm not 2:10:34.800 --> 2:10:36.360 I'm really not a big fan of Tim Ryan. I 2:10:36.360 --> 2:10:38.960 mean I remember back during the when he ran for President. 2:10:39.360 --> 2:10:44.560 Tim Ryan, Yeah, meditation. He was like us went after Bernie. 2:10:44.960 --> 2:10:47.920 It was like, we don't have to yell at shirts 2:10:47.920 --> 2:10:51.400 that said stop yelling or whatever. We don't have to 2:10:51.480 --> 2:10:55.960 yell at ye. He's signed on to the list on 2:10:56.000 --> 2:10:58.400 the Medicare for All Caucus. So he endorsed support for 2:10:58.440 --> 2:10:59.880 the Medicare for All bill in the House, and then 2:11:00.080 --> 2:11:01.920 he was interviewed later on and asked to U sport 2:11:01.960 --> 2:11:04.240 Medicare for all. He was like, no, I hate that policy, 2:11:04.360 --> 2:11:06.720 and so I have big, big issues with Tim Ryan. 2:11:06.920 --> 2:11:09.520 But in terms of politics, I think he's run a 2:11:09.560 --> 2:11:12.600 phenomenal campaign. I think he's been really aggressive, which is 2:11:12.640 --> 2:11:14.800 something that we don't often see from Democrats. I think 2:11:14.800 --> 2:11:18.520 he's kind of correctly portrayed jd Vance as an extremist 2:11:18.600 --> 2:11:20.600 and a Trump asked Kisser quite literally, I think he 2:11:20.600 --> 2:11:23.800 said those words on stage. Trump said that about jade 2:11:23.840 --> 2:11:27.720 Van and then yes, hey, remember when he said that thing. Ye, 2:11:28.120 --> 2:11:30.640 So yeah, I just thought he ran a good campaign. Yeah, Well, 2:11:30.800 --> 2:11:32.680 I don't know. And that is the question is, like, 2:11:32.920 --> 2:11:35.840 I mean, clearly Tim right did some things right because 2:11:35.840 --> 2:11:38.680 he's outperforming the other dude. Yeah. I don't even know 2:11:38.720 --> 2:11:40.160 who it was running for the I think it is 2:11:40.200 --> 2:11:42.120 a woman running for governor for the Nan Whaley is 2:11:42.120 --> 2:11:47.200 that whould be lckamist, gender and whatever canceled anyway, So 2:11:47.240 --> 2:11:49.680 he did definitely did some things right to be outperforming 2:11:49.720 --> 2:11:52.720 the other Democrat that he's sharing a ticket with statewide. 2:11:52.760 --> 2:11:54.400 And then the question is how much of it is 2:11:54.440 --> 2:11:56.800 like what did Tim Ryan to write and how much 2:11:56.840 --> 2:11:59.320 of it is what did JD vance do wrong? Right? 2:11:59.520 --> 2:12:02.680 What is it that voters didn't like about him his platform? 2:12:02.760 --> 2:12:04.720 Do they view him as extreme? Did they view him 2:12:04.720 --> 2:12:07.160 as untattouched? Did they view him as like Yeah, I 2:12:07.160 --> 2:12:09.960 mean it is It does have this sort of gross 2:12:09.960 --> 2:12:11.720 feel that you were the guy that was like the 2:12:11.800 --> 2:12:14.240 principled critic of Trump and then all of a sudden 2:12:14.240 --> 2:12:16.160 you're like, oh, I love you and please endorse me 2:12:16.240 --> 2:12:19.280 and basically owes his totally owes his victory in the 2:12:19.280 --> 2:12:23.520 Republican primary to securing the Trump endorsement. So, you know, 2:12:23.600 --> 2:12:25.440 I don't know the answer to that question, but it 2:12:25.520 --> 2:12:27.720 certainly has to be like a little bit of both there. Well, 2:12:27.720 --> 2:12:29.400 Tad to your point, Christ it kind of gets into 2:12:29.480 --> 2:12:34.280 the weird dynamic. It seems like Tim Ryan because of 2:12:34.320 --> 2:12:35.960 the way like JD's had to kind of like shift 2:12:36.000 --> 2:12:37.920 his position around Tim Ryan kind of rank. And you 2:12:37.960 --> 2:12:41.280 almost would think that the JD's the incumbent right now, 2:12:41.560 --> 2:12:44.280 right that's how like aggressive at Tim Bran's being like 2:12:44.760 --> 2:12:46.880 And I think there's probably like there's probably a lesson 2:12:46.880 --> 2:12:49.120 there when this is I think your point on aggression 2:12:49.960 --> 2:12:52.200 and how like that wo make it. It might help though, 2:12:52.240 --> 2:12:55.280 because because Ohio is such a red state you should 2:12:55.320 --> 2:12:57.320 treat it as incumbents see. So it makes it like 2:12:57.680 --> 2:13:00.720 a little bit more up there. So some interesting call 2:13:00.760 --> 2:13:05.400 out Sarah Huckabee Sanders, press secretary officially Arkansas's governor. I 2:13:05.440 --> 2:13:10.360 told Chuck Schumer has now won his fifth term to 2:13:10.400 --> 2:13:13.920 become the New York longest Senator in the history of 2:13:14.040 --> 2:13:16.920 the state of New York. He's only he's a young man, 2:13:16.960 --> 2:13:19.000 he's only seventy three. So I predict that is not 2:13:19.080 --> 2:13:21.480 the last election that we will see him. By the 2:13:21.480 --> 2:13:24.360 way he's taken. In the Democratic North Carolina. What we 2:13:24.360 --> 2:13:26.320 were all taking a look at, Ted budd has actually 2:13:26.320 --> 2:13:28.360 now gone ahead and pulled ahead in the race there. 2:13:28.360 --> 2:13:31.120 It's still closed, so it's fifty and fifty nine. Again 2:13:31.200 --> 2:13:33.080 we all fell for the Blue mirage. It's a joke. 2:13:33.320 --> 2:13:35.280 Sixty eight percent of the vote coming in there now 2:13:35.280 --> 2:13:37.640 and things starting to trend a little bit more in 2:13:37.680 --> 2:13:41.320 that direction. Georgia, I'm keeping an eye on it. At 2:13:41.360 --> 2:13:43.720 no surprise. It gives me great pleasure to say all this. 2:13:44.120 --> 2:13:47.160 Immediately after the polls closed, Fox News went ahead and 2:13:47.240 --> 2:13:50.600 called the race for Greg Abbott over Beto Rourke. Is 2:13:51.160 --> 2:13:55.000 it's amazing to consider him four years later. Right, twenty 2:13:55.040 --> 2:13:58.520 eighteen was his big moment. He raised more money than God. 2:13:58.600 --> 2:14:01.360 I remember rocking around Marshall this when we were living 2:14:01.480 --> 2:14:04.680 in Adams Morgan, and I remember seeing Beto stickers everywhere. 2:14:04.800 --> 2:14:07.600 He was raising so much money. Anytime I visited Texas 2:14:07.640 --> 2:14:09.640 at that time, if you landed in Austin, you'd see 2:14:09.640 --> 2:14:12.760 Beto T shirts. He was irrelevant in the year twenty 2:14:12.800 --> 2:14:16.040 twenty two. And it's a real fall from grace for him, 2:14:16.120 --> 2:14:19.080 for Stacy Abrams as well, like many of the twenty 2:14:19.120 --> 2:14:22.839 eighteen stars did not pan out at all, built huge 2:14:22.920 --> 2:14:27.280 campaigns and fundraising dollars on the backs of that, and look, 2:14:27.360 --> 2:14:30.000 I mean it's it's a huge failure for the quote 2:14:30.040 --> 2:14:33.280 unquote like the stars of twenty eighteen who didn't actually 2:14:33.320 --> 2:14:35.960 win was a couple. Yeah, it's kind of it's funny, 2:14:36.520 --> 2:14:38.720 Like I live in Austin now obviously, so like I've 2:14:38.760 --> 2:14:41.600 been thinking, there's a very little like Beto energy, and 2:14:41.640 --> 2:14:44.280 he was so much there's this very little like Beto energy, 2:14:44.400 --> 2:14:46.720 like very I mean, there are signs, but Stephie doesn't 2:14:46.720 --> 2:14:49.120 feel like the environment. But two there's a there's a 2:14:49.120 --> 2:14:51.880 broad left and I think Beto was worse on this 2:14:51.920 --> 2:14:56.200 than Stacy Abrams. Was the transition he made from I'm 2:14:56.200 --> 2:15:00.120 a Texas guy to running nationally. There was no no 2:15:00.280 --> 2:15:03.640 reason for him to say I'm coming for your ars 2:15:03.680 --> 2:15:06.680 exactly right, and I'm talking about that. We're not talking policy, 2:15:07.080 --> 2:15:11.000 that literal phrasing, pointing to the camera and saying I'm 2:15:11.000 --> 2:15:13.120 doing it. Okay, it's over. So if you're going to 2:15:13.160 --> 2:15:15.640 be successful, hey, it's the second interviews has got people 2:15:15.800 --> 2:15:19.400 we don't like Ted Cruz, so candidate choice really matters. 2:15:19.400 --> 2:15:21.840 But just this, this is we're debating, like how much 2:15:21.880 --> 2:15:24.320 of this is local and national? This shows that there 2:15:24.360 --> 2:15:28.800 are cases where you can be a Texas Democrat, you 2:15:28.880 --> 2:15:32.720 can be a Georgia Democrat, but you have to can't 2:15:32.760 --> 2:15:35.080 be thinking of the programtic one you just got picked. 2:15:35.240 --> 2:15:37.800 The other thing is I think people really got the 2:15:37.880 --> 2:15:40.800 sense he was so forced on us by the media. 2:15:41.240 --> 2:15:44.720 Remember when he was on all like those magnanity I'm 2:15:44.720 --> 2:15:47.120 just born to be in standing on every table he 2:15:47.160 --> 2:15:50.960 could stand on for no reason, that Oprah, And then 2:15:50.960 --> 2:15:54.160 he started talking and people were like, oh, this is 2:15:54.200 --> 2:15:56.040 what all the hypees about, Like this is this is 2:15:56.080 --> 2:15:58.720 crazy and to your point. Yeah, if you're gonna run 2:15:58.760 --> 2:16:02.240 for governor of Texas, how the fuck are you going 2:16:02.280 --> 2:16:04.240 to say, Yeah, I'm coming to take your guns? Yeah, 2:16:04.280 --> 2:16:07.680 any other phrasing. I actually cannot think of a first 2:16:08.360 --> 2:16:12.720 It is Texas, the one thing you cannot say in Texas. Yeah, 2:16:12.720 --> 2:16:14.080 and he did it, and so yeah, I mean, I'm 2:16:14.120 --> 2:16:16.520 not surprised he was forced on us by the media. 2:16:16.560 --> 2:16:18.880 And I actually kind of liked the fact that Stacy 2:16:18.880 --> 2:16:22.320 Abrams and Better o'rourk overall, their national profile has just 2:16:22.360 --> 2:16:24.840 absolutely tanked, because again, this was the media trying to 2:16:24.840 --> 2:16:27.720 send up the air apparent to the like Okay, well 2:16:27.760 --> 2:16:30.120 we'll give you Hillary, and then okay, maybe Biden at 2:16:30.120 --> 2:16:32.280 the last minute will give you Okay, now they're going 2:16:32.320 --> 2:16:34.600 to try to do mayor Pede of course, and Conin Harris. 2:16:34.800 --> 2:16:36.400 But like the fact that so many of them have 2:16:36.480 --> 2:16:40.840 failed spectacularly leaves me hope that they're still room for 2:16:41.040 --> 2:16:43.200 like a candidate Obama back in two thousand and seven, 2:16:43.240 --> 2:16:44.840 two thousand and eight who kind of came out of 2:16:44.879 --> 2:16:47.520 nowhere and just captured the imagination, Like why couldn't Warnock 2:16:47.560 --> 2:16:49.520 do that in a presidential race for the Democrats? You 2:16:49.520 --> 2:16:52.920 know what, I mean, I mean, I think Kamala is 2:16:52.959 --> 2:16:54.440 another one that I would put on the list of 2:16:54.440 --> 2:16:57.960 failing spectacularly, right, Like, she might be vice president and 2:16:58.800 --> 2:17:00.760 they might try to force her because they don't feel 2:17:00.760 --> 2:17:03.200 like they can get past the first black woman vice 2:17:03.240 --> 2:17:05.480 president and we kind of, you know, have to go 2:17:05.560 --> 2:17:10.080 there next. But she's obviously already failed spectacular in terms 2:17:10.120 --> 2:17:13.080 of how the public feels about her. So yeah, I mean, 2:17:13.120 --> 2:17:16.360 the whole theory of the Democratic Party is like, Okay, 2:17:16.480 --> 2:17:19.400 let's just let's find the next Obama. Let's find someone 2:17:19.400 --> 2:17:22.400 who's you know, sort of like parrots his way of 2:17:22.480 --> 2:17:26.400 talking and his speech patterns, and let's just like put 2:17:26.440 --> 2:17:30.360 them out as this is the next one here. Congratulations 2:17:30.400 --> 2:17:33.360 to all of you. We've bestowed Beto and Pete and 2:17:33.440 --> 2:17:37.160 Kamala and Stacy Abrams upon you. And you know, it's 2:17:37.200 --> 2:17:40.600 no accident then that all of these media creations who 2:17:40.640 --> 2:17:43.240 really didn't have a lot of any like vision or 2:17:43.240 --> 2:17:45.760 substance or like charisma of their own to back it up, 2:17:46.040 --> 2:17:48.440 that they ultimately sort of fizzle out. So and it's 2:17:48.440 --> 2:17:51.080 a different thing for the Democratic base that was very 2:17:51.080 --> 2:17:54.160 excited about Stacy Abrams in Georgia last time. Aroundm very 2:17:54.200 --> 2:17:56.680 excited about Beta or Burke, but they also didn't really 2:17:56.879 --> 2:17:59.560 have a chance to sort of examine them at that point, 2:17:59.680 --> 2:18:02.280 you know, like they were excited about the dream of 2:18:02.480 --> 2:18:05.080 winning in Texas. The other thing I would say about 2:18:05.120 --> 2:18:09.360 that is, you know, I think the Democratic like Texas 2:18:09.560 --> 2:18:14.760 hopium has also significantly cooled and dimmed dramatically because of 2:18:14.840 --> 2:18:18.560 the shift in Latino voters absolutely right to Republicans. So, 2:18:18.879 --> 2:18:21.039 you know, the dream there always was you'd say, look 2:18:21.080 --> 2:18:23.080 at all these Latino voters and if we can get 2:18:23.080 --> 2:18:24.800 them to turn out, and we just need a registered 2:18:24.840 --> 2:18:26.400 in the vote, we get them to the polling places 2:18:26.400 --> 2:18:28.920 and they'll vote for Democrats. And now it's like will 2:18:28.959 --> 2:18:32.160 they vote for Democrats no longer clear? And in the 2:18:32.200 --> 2:18:34.160 Rio Grand Valley, as we have talked about and many 2:18:34.160 --> 2:18:36.920 others have talked about as well, huge shifts to the right. 2:18:37.280 --> 2:18:40.039 So that has kind of killed, let's put a real 2:18:40.120 --> 2:18:42.840 damper on the Democratic dreams in Texas for the moment. Well, 2:18:42.840 --> 2:18:44.760 there's one other thing that it's also killed because the 2:18:44.800 --> 2:18:48.240 real the way this, you know, Latinos like black men 2:18:48.280 --> 2:18:50.920 specifically going more for Republicans from twenty sixteen to twenty 2:18:50.920 --> 2:18:53.640 twenty was talked to us. This is just like Trump, right, 2:18:53.720 --> 2:18:56.120 if you were to build a guy in a lab 2:18:56.800 --> 2:18:59.640 who could do better for minorities, and let's hmit Romney, 2:18:59.640 --> 2:19:02.520 it wrote to be Donald Trump. The fact that Republicans 2:19:02.520 --> 2:19:04.760 are able to pull that off when Trump is not 2:19:04.840 --> 2:19:08.000 on the ballot, that's really the dream of that, because 2:19:08.000 --> 2:19:12.119 the hope the copium was Okay, let's get real, it's Trump. 2:19:12.480 --> 2:19:15.880 No one's shocked at that. But when generic Texas, what 2:19:16.000 --> 2:19:19.000 boomer Republicans pulling that up, pulling that up Myra Flores 2:19:19.000 --> 2:19:20.720 like whenever she won in her race. And actually, I 2:19:20.760 --> 2:19:22.400 mean I expect some of that data to come out 2:19:22.440 --> 2:19:25.080 of text. I'll be watching that very closely. So a 2:19:25.120 --> 2:19:27.199 little bit of an update. Vance is actually pulled ahead 2:19:27.440 --> 2:19:30.039 in the state of Ohio at fifty points three percent 2:19:30.040 --> 2:19:32.560 of the vote to Tim Ryans forty nine point seven. 2:19:32.600 --> 2:19:35.600 As we get more and more and North Carolina similarly, 2:19:35.680 --> 2:19:38.920 Ted Budd continued to maintaining the hold, although still only 2:19:38.920 --> 2:19:41.160 in thirty nine point four and forty eight point six. 2:19:41.200 --> 2:19:43.200 That's sixty nine percent of the vote. Okay, so I 2:19:43.240 --> 2:19:45.360 think a lot of the red votes I've got, I've 2:19:45.360 --> 2:19:50.000 got a John Ralston update out so this is the guy. Yeah, 2:19:50.040 --> 2:19:52.560 he's very well known. He has a great track record 2:19:52.640 --> 2:19:54.520 in Nevada in terms of predicting what the income is 2:19:54.560 --> 2:19:56.240 going to be. He watches the early vote in Nevada 2:19:56.240 --> 2:19:58.640 has long had a sizable like early mail in vote, 2:19:58.680 --> 2:20:00.240 so he looks at, okay, what's the parson and break 2:20:00.240 --> 2:20:02.080 down how much Republican, how much Democrat, how much of 2:20:02.080 --> 2:20:06.120 a Democratic firewell whatever. So in advance of election day, 2:20:06.360 --> 2:20:10.200 he actually predicted that Catherine Cortez Master, the Democrat, would 2:20:10.200 --> 2:20:12.520 hold on and win and that the Republican would win 2:20:12.640 --> 2:20:14.680 for governor. Then he started to see the votes come 2:20:14.680 --> 2:20:16.760 on an election day and was like, oh, I might 2:20:16.800 --> 2:20:20.320 need to really take that one back. So where we 2:20:20.400 --> 2:20:25.359 are now is he says, I've just confirmed that whatever 2:20:25.400 --> 2:20:27.640 mail has been dropped off today is not going to 2:20:27.640 --> 2:20:30.040 be tabulated tonight in Clark County. That's where Las Vegas 2:20:30.120 --> 2:20:33.400 is overwhelming bulk population is like the whole ballgame is 2:20:33.440 --> 2:20:38.120 Clark County, Indova may take until Thursday. Oh no, what 2:20:38.200 --> 2:20:40.640 will be tally tonight? Our election day in person and 2:20:40.680 --> 2:20:43.160 all the early mail votes already in the system save 2:20:43.280 --> 2:20:47.360 for provisional ballots. So he says it is very likely 2:20:47.520 --> 2:20:50.120 the top of the ticket Republicans will be ahead after 2:20:50.200 --> 2:20:53.760 tonight with thousands of mail ballots still uncounted, will they 2:20:53.760 --> 2:20:56.080 try to declare victory even though the races may not 2:20:56.120 --> 2:20:57.920 be over. What do you think? So, oh my god, 2:20:58.320 --> 2:21:00.640 there was Carrie Lake. We know what would happen. You 2:21:00.640 --> 2:21:03.160 know what would happen, but we don't know. Lo Salt 2:21:03.200 --> 2:21:05.600 is a little bit, he's not He's more of an 2:21:05.680 --> 2:21:07.920 establishment guy, like moved the state a couple of years ago. 2:21:07.920 --> 2:21:10.720 He's more of like a rich guy Republicans. So I'm 2:21:10.720 --> 2:21:12.640 not so sure that that would happen. I don't know 2:21:12.680 --> 2:21:16.600 anything about the gubernatorial Republicans. I don't know nominee in 2:21:16.640 --> 2:21:20.240 the state. So anyway, just heads up that that one 2:21:20.720 --> 2:21:22.200 that's going to flip Man and that's going to feed 2:21:22.240 --> 2:21:24.640 a whole bunch of We will probably not know tonight, 2:21:24.760 --> 2:21:27.039 and I mean, maybe it'll be clear, maybe it'll be 2:21:27.160 --> 2:21:29.440 Republicans are up by a whole lot. And it's basically, 2:21:29.680 --> 2:21:32.440 didn't he predict Democrats that Cortes Master is gonna hold 2:21:32.440 --> 2:21:37.920 on receipt yea his initial projection away a little bit? Yeah, okay, understood. 2:21:37.920 --> 2:21:40.320 But let's say there's a tiny lead for Republicans and 2:21:40.400 --> 2:21:42.960 you still have all these uncounted Clark County. Yeah, that's 2:21:42.959 --> 2:21:44.680 going to flip to the Democrats, and that's you're going 2:21:44.720 --> 2:21:48.160 to have like seventeen divisied susive documentaries coming out. Facts. 2:21:48.320 --> 2:21:58.800 That's fun. It's fun to live in America. So, I mean, 2:21:58.879 --> 2:22:03.280 I do think it's worse saying that other countries do 2:22:03.480 --> 2:22:06.280 manage to count their ballots, even with early vote and 2:22:06.320 --> 2:22:10.800 mail in ballots and whatever on election day. And still, yes, Brazil, 2:22:10.920 --> 2:22:13.680 we knew who won like right away, and we're talking 2:22:13.680 --> 2:22:17.000 about you know, like people voting in far flung plays. 2:22:17.040 --> 2:22:19.720 It's a big country. Whatever. I have a love I 2:22:19.959 --> 2:22:21.920 just you know, we should we should get our act 2:22:21.959 --> 2:22:23.600 together a little better on this. I have no reason 2:22:23.680 --> 2:22:26.039 you have to wait till freak Thursday to count these ballots. Guys. 2:22:26.280 --> 2:22:27.600 This is a good one for the panel. Guys. I 2:22:27.680 --> 2:22:29.800 have a love hate relationship with federalism and some things. 2:22:29.879 --> 2:22:31.800 I love it, but like on election and look, I 2:22:31.879 --> 2:22:34.119 get it, everybody like why it isn't design this way, 2:22:34.120 --> 2:22:36.560 but it's a pain in the ass, like you know, 2:22:36.640 --> 2:22:38.960 And I also talk about this with Republicans. Marshall's actually 2:22:38.959 --> 2:22:40.960 the one I remember I was at your house when 2:22:41.000 --> 2:22:43.320 you guys were all voting, and everybody in Oregon votes 2:22:43.320 --> 2:22:46.560 by mail. It's awesome. It's actually a much higher turnout. 2:22:46.720 --> 2:22:50.280 It's actually a lot easier. I understand drop boxes all stuff. 2:22:50.280 --> 2:22:52.560 Oregon in Washington like seem to have figured it out. 2:22:52.720 --> 2:22:55.720 They have way higher voter participation. It seems like everybody 2:22:55.720 --> 2:22:57.680 in the state likes it. And I'm not even saying 2:22:57.800 --> 2:23:00.600 necessarily voting by mail, but I was thinking about it 2:23:00.600 --> 2:23:02.080 today and I'm like, if I can log into my 2:23:02.120 --> 2:23:04.720 bank account with a text message, and I'm like, why 2:23:04.800 --> 2:23:08.000 is this so antiquate? Like so many other functions of 2:23:08.000 --> 2:23:10.760 our lives, like don't and I have modernized in a 2:23:10.800 --> 2:23:13.640 sense where voting just seems to be a shit show 2:23:13.760 --> 2:23:17.080 every single time that we cover it. And your nail, Crystal, 2:23:17.120 --> 2:23:19.120 you were some of them saying, is like it seems 2:23:19.160 --> 2:23:20.879 to have gotten where it does seem to be ever present, 2:23:21.000 --> 2:23:23.080 like you know, with two thousand, even two thousand and four, 2:23:23.120 --> 2:23:25.520 if I recall, I remember going to bed on two 2:23:25.560 --> 2:23:27.840 thousand and four election night and people saying, well, we're 2:23:27.840 --> 2:23:29.840 not going to know Ohio for a couple of days, 2:23:29.840 --> 2:23:32.800 and I don't think John Carrey conceded until the day after. 2:23:33.040 --> 2:23:37.120 So anyway, I mean, it's funny because so I voted 2:23:37.400 --> 2:23:40.039 in Austin on Friday. That's my first I've always just 2:23:40.040 --> 2:23:42.560 don't drop off like Neil Ballots. I waited like an 2:23:42.560 --> 2:23:45.160 hour in line, and I was I was early. I 2:23:45.240 --> 2:23:47.879 basically the answer is, I actually cannot talk of Republicans. 2:23:48.160 --> 2:23:50.879 I'mout this issue because Oregon it's been vote by mail forever. 2:23:51.160 --> 2:23:53.520 I'm sort of like, this is crazy, right, but I 2:23:53.520 --> 2:23:55.160 don't know, it's kind of I don't know. It's just 2:23:55.200 --> 2:23:57.040 sort of like I think it should be pretty like 2:23:57.560 --> 2:24:00.680 Ford to vote vote, and I agree should be, uh, 2:24:00.840 --> 2:24:03.520 it should be it should be federalized. I mean, I 2:24:03.640 --> 2:24:05.480 see that. It's just I know it's not gonna fly. 2:24:05.720 --> 2:24:07.840 But I mean, if you're designing a system from scratch, 2:24:07.920 --> 2:24:10.280 obviously you're gonna have the same rules everywhere. Right, We're 2:24:10.280 --> 2:24:12.280 not gonna be like, well, in miss Stape we count 2:24:12.320 --> 2:24:14.840 using donkeys. That is also why I do want to 2:24:14.840 --> 2:24:16.640 say that some of the g OPI talking points on 2:24:16.680 --> 2:24:20.920 stuff drive me into the story tradition a donkey ballot count. 2:24:21.600 --> 2:24:23.000 Dare you take that away from get back to the 2:24:23.000 --> 2:24:25.520 GOP legislators they're the ones who pass law saying you 2:24:25.560 --> 2:24:29.600 can't count early vote until elections. Why why well, we 2:24:29.760 --> 2:24:32.520 do not let me play, let me play doubles advocate, 2:24:32.600 --> 2:24:34.440 don't do that. I don't even know that I agree 2:24:34.440 --> 2:24:37.640 with this position, but somebody's got to take it. So 2:24:37.840 --> 2:24:42.119 if you did have the federal government basically overseeing the 2:24:42.320 --> 2:24:46.080 entire election infrastructure, it strikes me as likely that that 2:24:46.120 --> 2:24:49.200 would feed more conspiracy definitely would You're right, No, you're 2:24:50.200 --> 2:24:53.280 but I think Kyle, not just speak for you, but 2:24:53.280 --> 2:24:57.600 I think you put it accurate, normalized standards. So like 2:24:57.959 --> 2:25:02.680 maybe it's that like you have eight days early voting 2:25:02.760 --> 2:25:06.480 or this is that I think there'd be I guess, 2:25:06.640 --> 2:25:09.360 I guess the philosophical question, like I think people should 2:25:09.360 --> 2:25:12.080 think about it is like is our responsive, Like is 2:25:12.360 --> 2:25:15.360 our election system like not responsive enough? Or it should 2:25:15.360 --> 2:25:16.840 it be like more responsive? I think we should have 2:25:16.879 --> 2:25:18.240 more people voting, like I think that. I think the 2:25:18.480 --> 2:25:21.000 total thing one of my favorite things the Night Foundation 2:25:21.080 --> 2:25:23.840 has talked about a million times, So forgive me everybody, 2:25:23.920 --> 2:25:26.080 is the one hundred million American project where they talk 2:25:26.120 --> 2:25:29.080 about the one hundred million Americans is a compedter. Okay, right, Okay, 2:25:30.040 --> 2:25:34.800 it's a microsoft surface. It's not water. It's different than water. 2:25:36.520 --> 2:25:40.320 It's just trying to don't worry anyway. One of my 2:25:40.320 --> 2:25:43.000 favorite studies, one hundred Million Americans Project, which talks about 2:25:43.000 --> 2:25:44.960 one hundred million Americans who don't vote and the vast 2:25:45.000 --> 2:25:47.320 majority of Glenn Greenwald actually was tweeting about it today. 2:25:47.320 --> 2:25:49.640 The vast majority of people who don't vote are working class, 2:25:50.160 --> 2:25:52.440 are people of color, and most of them just think 2:25:52.440 --> 2:25:55.760 that their vote doesn't matter at all. It's sometimes there 2:25:56.080 --> 2:25:58.240 because you know, people will ask is it too hard 2:25:58.240 --> 2:25:59.959 to vote, and they're like no, like I could have, 2:26:00.080 --> 2:26:02.640 I wanted to, Like I just don't care. And that 2:26:02.800 --> 2:26:05.039 is something where Look, we seem to have very high 2:26:05.040 --> 2:26:07.360 turnout today. I think that's great, but if you look 2:26:07.360 --> 2:26:10.640 peck it to our historical standards, it still seems to 2:26:10.640 --> 2:26:13.480 be incredibly low. Even in twenty twenty, we s have 2:26:13.640 --> 2:26:16.280 much higher voter participation in this country. Yes, I know, 2:26:16.360 --> 2:26:18.480 not everybody could vote and all that, but if you look, 2:26:18.560 --> 2:26:21.400 you know, in other developing in western countries, even put 2:26:21.440 --> 2:26:23.600 aside the whole like it should be a national holiday, 2:26:23.840 --> 2:26:26.320 et cetera, discourse, people there just seem to care a 2:26:26.360 --> 2:26:28.760 lot more. I do think that's something that I don't 2:26:28.760 --> 2:26:30.360 even know if that's a federal problem that can but 2:26:30.440 --> 2:26:33.720 you know, I mean Trump has driven up turnout. No, 2:26:34.120 --> 2:26:36.240 he certainly has done that, and it hasn't been good 2:26:36.240 --> 2:26:39.880 for the country. So I mean, I would like turn 2:26:39.920 --> 2:26:43.000 out to be up, but for less or I'll take 2:26:43.040 --> 2:26:46.879 more turn if anything was going. I actually understand voting 2:26:46.959 --> 2:26:50.000 being mandatory, even more than I understand like jury Dewey 2:26:50.080 --> 2:26:53.120 being mandatory. You're going to make anything mandatory. I'm so 2:26:53.280 --> 2:26:55.680 against that. Voting isn't the way I'm not saying. I'm 2:26:56.959 --> 2:26:59.040 I'm saying if there is anything that you can make 2:26:59.520 --> 2:27:01.560 argument vote that should be mandatory, it would be that 2:27:01.600 --> 2:27:03.440 over jury duty or anything. All Right, I've got a 2:27:03.480 --> 2:27:07.640 Georgia update. It's okay. I'm pretty surprised by this one 2:27:08.400 --> 2:27:11.560 at this point with more than half of Georgia ballots counted. 2:27:11.600 --> 2:27:14.320 This is per Greg Bluestein, who we've had on rising 2:27:14.360 --> 2:27:18.000 and on breaking points as well. Republican Governor Kemp and 2:27:18.040 --> 2:27:23.720 Democratic center Rafael Warnock have almost an equal number of votes. Wow, 2:27:23.840 --> 2:27:29.400 whoa Warnock and Kemp equal number of votes? That is astonishing. 2:27:29.520 --> 2:27:32.840 I mean they're off by I mean it's very very 2:27:32.879 --> 2:27:36.240 little that there's a difference here. So Michel Walker's underperforming 2:27:36.320 --> 2:27:41.760 Stacy Abrams. Correct, wa actually herschel Walker right now. And 2:27:41.800 --> 2:27:44.480 this is because in the Senate race there is a 2:27:44.520 --> 2:27:47.960 libertarian candidate who's garnering about two percentage of two points 2:27:47.959 --> 2:27:50.680 of the vote right now. So herschel Walker actually has 2:27:50.879 --> 2:27:54.640 fewer votes than Stacy Abrams. That is crazy. Wow, that 2:27:54.680 --> 2:27:56.720 it really does. Shore. I mean, look, this again could 2:27:56.760 --> 2:27:59.120 be the cannon quality. At the same time, it's only 2:27:59.160 --> 2:28:02.520 fifty six percent. Do we know Brian Kemp is going 2:28:02.600 --> 2:28:05.240 to win? No, I agree, So if you've got Warnock 2:28:05.520 --> 2:28:08.600 running equal with him, this is looking to me like 2:28:08.680 --> 2:28:11.039 the question isn't who comes out on top, it's whether 2:28:11.320 --> 2:28:14.160 he avoids a or not. Great point, but the fifty 2:28:14.200 --> 2:28:15.959 fifty Oh go ahead, I have a call. It is 2:28:15.959 --> 2:28:22.840 with a call JB. Pritzker. Oh, big boy, big boy. Well, 2:28:22.879 --> 2:28:25.120 I mean this is a This is somebody who you 2:28:25.160 --> 2:28:28.760 know certainly thinks of himself as a potential presidential candidate 2:28:28.760 --> 2:28:31.879 in the future. This is someone who, uh similar to 2:28:31.920 --> 2:28:35.440 Gavin Newsom, although not quite as overt and shameless, has 2:28:35.480 --> 2:28:38.560 made some moves to try to position himself in the eventuality. 2:28:38.640 --> 2:28:41.199 If Biden doesn't run, I think he would be one 2:28:41.240 --> 2:28:43.920 who would run. He's also happens to be a billionaire, 2:28:44.080 --> 2:28:46.440 so uh, you know that never hurts in terms of 2:28:46.440 --> 2:28:50.160 our political system. And it's Michael Bloomberg. I think I 2:28:50.240 --> 2:28:55.279 think it's probably not a money though I actually actually 2:28:55.959 --> 2:28:58.600 mad stage. Yeah, I think being a billionaire probably hurts 2:28:58.600 --> 2:29:02.040 you as a presidential candidate. I think I think I 2:29:02.080 --> 2:29:05.760 think it causes it insolarty and just like the things 2:29:05.760 --> 2:29:07.880 that happened you for your a billion I know, obviously 2:29:07.959 --> 2:29:09.480 I think it's I think it's bad. I think you 2:29:09.480 --> 2:29:11.600 want to be like in the hundred million. All right, 2:29:12.640 --> 2:29:17.959 there's a sweet spot, millionaire ritory spot. He's getting re 2:29:18.000 --> 2:29:22.039 elected tonight. The funny thing. The funny thing about Pritzker 2:29:22.440 --> 2:29:26.039 is like there was a moment in online discourse where 2:29:26.040 --> 2:29:29.000 progressives and lefties got like super excited about this guy, 2:29:29.120 --> 2:29:31.760 and there's like a whole thing. And it was really 2:29:31.800 --> 2:29:34.760 because he just like ran on a couple of things 2:29:34.840 --> 2:29:37.400 and then actually did them when he became governor, and 2:29:37.440 --> 2:29:38.800 the bar was so low that they were like, oh 2:29:38.800 --> 2:29:40.640 my god, we love this guy. He's amazing. By the way, 2:29:40.640 --> 2:29:43.959 one more call Jared Polis has been re elected governor 2:29:43.959 --> 2:29:47.360 of Colorado, Governor of colorow other guy position. That is 2:29:47.400 --> 2:29:50.560 an important point because in the red tsunami scenario, they 2:29:50.600 --> 2:29:53.560 actually thought that Polis was possibly so that is an 2:29:53.600 --> 2:29:56.000 important That is an important data point to shout out 2:29:56.000 --> 2:29:58.800 for everyone. Also, Michael Bennett there with thirty eight percent, 2:29:59.440 --> 2:30:03.280 is at three percent. Reporting is up by sixty to forty, 2:30:03.320 --> 2:30:06.360 which is pretty remarkable for what we have there. Wow, 2:30:06.440 --> 2:30:08.959 you know, I mean, I'm pretty stunned by those numbers, 2:30:08.959 --> 2:30:10.720 the Georgia numbers, because we've got two thirds of the 2:30:10.760 --> 2:30:14.959 vote in from Georgia. I so far very surprised that 2:30:15.320 --> 2:30:19.440 Warnock and Kemp a running even I did not see 2:30:19.440 --> 2:30:23.080 that coming. And that again, I mean that seems like 2:30:23.160 --> 2:30:26.440 again polls under estimating the Democrats a little bit in 2:30:26.480 --> 2:30:28.400 the state of Georgia. So all right, we'll keep an 2:30:28.400 --> 2:30:30.320 eye on it. In the meantime, we've got our great 2:30:30.360 --> 2:30:33.160 friend Jameiles Coleman is back to tell us what he 2:30:33.520 --> 2:30:36.440 is making of these numbers. Great to see you again, 2:30:36.879 --> 2:30:41.000 we missed you. So we're just talking about Georgia. Greg Bluesein, 2:30:41.800 --> 2:30:45.320 who's with the Atlanta Journal Constitution, just tweeted out that 2:30:45.600 --> 2:30:48.840 Warnock and Kemp are running even in terms of the 2:30:48.920 --> 2:30:51.040 number of votes they are getting, which is something that 2:30:51.080 --> 2:30:53.160 really surprised us. I mean, how is Georgia looking to 2:30:53.200 --> 2:30:56.680 you at this point? Well, someone who I also think 2:30:56.720 --> 2:31:00.600 had a really really good tweet is Nate Towing at 2:31:00.640 --> 2:31:03.440 the New York Times. He's like, well than Florida, it 2:31:03.480 --> 2:31:07.000 seems like it's a decent night for Democrats and right, 2:31:07.160 --> 2:31:11.240 and like, one county I'm really looking at in Georgia 2:31:11.400 --> 2:31:16.640 is called Clayton County, really south of Atlanta, majority black. 2:31:17.760 --> 2:31:21.160 In the twenty twenty one runoffs, I think Warnot got 2:31:21.160 --> 2:31:23.240 about eighty nine percent of the vote there. He's at 2:31:23.280 --> 2:31:26.760 eighty eight, so, I mean, Warnock is definitely holding up 2:31:26.879 --> 2:31:30.039 very well. So you know, it's it's going to be 2:31:30.080 --> 2:31:32.920 an interesting kind of ticket split that we're seeing in Georgia. 2:31:32.959 --> 2:31:36.440 In favorite Warnock at the tempt which is quite interesting. Yeah, 2:31:36.520 --> 2:31:38.400 lots of tickets splitting going on. What are some of 2:31:38.400 --> 2:31:40.000 the things that you're taking a look at, Miles, give 2:31:40.040 --> 2:31:42.160 us some of your insights some of the big things 2:31:42.200 --> 2:31:47.240 flashing across your radar that you think the audience should know. Sure, So, 2:31:47.320 --> 2:31:49.560 earlier we were talking about how you know, sometimes you 2:31:49.640 --> 2:31:51.920 have to be a little patient when looking for some 2:31:52.080 --> 2:31:54.400 when waiting for some of these results to come come in. 2:31:55.040 --> 2:31:58.000 You know, last week talked Tim Ryan was up in Ohio. 2:31:58.560 --> 2:32:01.560 Looks like jd Vance has taken the lead lead there 2:32:01.720 --> 2:32:05.720 very so lightly. One thing in the House that's sort 2:32:05.760 --> 2:32:09.400 of caught my attention is a lot of Republicans were 2:32:09.520 --> 2:32:12.199 very excited about picking up a seat in Rhode Island. 2:32:12.879 --> 2:32:16.800 They had a good candidate in Alan fond Long. It 2:32:16.840 --> 2:32:22.080 looks like you lost that seat in Rhode Island. So 2:32:22.160 --> 2:32:24.680 overall it looks like, you know, it may not be 2:32:25.040 --> 2:32:27.000 as much of a red wave as you know, maybe 2:32:27.080 --> 2:32:31.320 red rain as pe Or Gabriel said, Yeah, I've got 2:32:31.400 --> 2:32:33.920 another one here, which is a CNN at least has 2:32:33.959 --> 2:32:36.880 projected that Jennifer Wexton is going to hold her seat 2:32:36.920 --> 2:32:42.400 in Virginia's tenth congressional district. Now, of the districts that 2:32:42.480 --> 2:32:45.880 were vulnerable in Virginia, of the Democratic districts that were 2:32:45.920 --> 2:32:48.160 vulnerable in Virginia, I think this is the one where 2:32:48.160 --> 2:32:51.160 Biden had the largest margin. Correct me if I'm wrong. 2:32:51.600 --> 2:32:54.640 But the worry was if we really were in like 2:32:54.680 --> 2:32:57.720 a red tsunami kind of a year, even a Jennifer 2:32:57.760 --> 2:33:01.279 Wexton could end up losing her seat. Sure. That's something 2:33:01.320 --> 2:33:03.959 you saw within the last few weeks is that there 2:33:04.040 --> 2:33:06.920 was all this talk of dij you Boden. This is 2:33:06.959 --> 2:33:09.440 a seat that Joe Biden won by eighteen points. So 2:33:09.440 --> 2:33:11.160 you know, if a seat like that is in play 2:33:11.240 --> 2:33:13.280 or even clips now, that's going to be the sign 2:33:13.320 --> 2:33:16.720 of a really good night Republicans. One other thing in 2:33:16.959 --> 2:33:21.760 Virginia is it looks like Abigail Spanberg, who has a 2:33:21.760 --> 2:33:24.480 more marginal seat to see that Joe Biden won by 2:33:24.560 --> 2:33:28.360 only six or seven, she's only slightly down now, and 2:33:28.400 --> 2:33:30.520 it looks like there are more early votes out that 2:33:30.600 --> 2:33:33.280 are going to be more frank friendly to her. So 2:33:33.360 --> 2:33:36.080 it looks like the Democrats are very going to are 2:33:36.520 --> 2:33:40.199 very likely going to go to for three seats in Virginia. 2:33:40.600 --> 2:33:43.280 The only one they lost was Elaine Laurier, who you 2:33:43.280 --> 2:33:46.240 know that that's just a tough seat. So you know, 2:33:46.320 --> 2:33:51.199 I think if Spanberger lost in District seven that Republicans 2:33:51.240 --> 2:33:53.920 were on track to gain over twenty five seats. That 2:33:54.240 --> 2:33:56.840 doesn't look like it's going to be the case. Wow, 2:33:56.840 --> 2:33:59.560 So what would you what would you put it at now? Actually, 2:33:59.560 --> 2:34:02.000 live in that Bamberger district, so I know it decently well. 2:34:02.040 --> 2:34:05.000 But yeah, would what would you put it at now 2:34:05.040 --> 2:34:07.600 in terms of where you project Republicans may end up 2:34:07.640 --> 2:34:10.039 in terms of the House. Yeah, now it's hard to tell, 2:34:10.080 --> 2:34:13.280 but maybe about fifteen to twenty seats, so you know 2:34:13.320 --> 2:34:16.119 they're going to have a comfortable majority, but it's not 2:34:16.200 --> 2:34:18.879 going to be you know, it's not going to be 2:34:18.959 --> 2:34:21.800 like two hundred and fifty seats or anything that's fascinating. Well, 2:34:21.800 --> 2:34:23.640 I mean that really doesn't stick. I mean, look, I 2:34:23.640 --> 2:34:26.119 mean there's a lot of surprises, like you said, other 2:34:26.200 --> 2:34:29.600 than Florida, it looks like a better night than expected. 2:34:29.879 --> 2:34:33.480 So as we're beginning to move west on the map, miles, 2:34:33.520 --> 2:34:36.160 are you seeing anything yet that we should know about Wisconsin, 2:34:36.240 --> 2:34:39.560 about Texas, or about any of the Midwestern states that 2:34:39.560 --> 2:34:42.920 could be noteworthy? You know, it looks like, you know, 2:34:42.959 --> 2:34:47.440 it's mostly the early boat there. It looks like Governor 2:34:47.480 --> 2:34:52.720 Whitner is ahead. She's someone who if she lost, you know, 2:34:52.800 --> 2:34:55.720 that would be a very big upset for the Republicans. 2:34:55.800 --> 2:35:01.360 But just one to sort of watch. You were talking about, 2:35:01.800 --> 2:35:03.280 you know, right before I came on, I think we 2:35:03.280 --> 2:35:07.480 were talking about Colorado, where Republicans talked a lot about 2:35:07.560 --> 2:35:10.880 unseen Senator Bennett. Yeah, you know, I think he's probably 2:35:10.920 --> 2:35:13.959 going to be in decent shape as well. So, you know, 2:35:13.959 --> 2:35:18.480 again just not a super Republican knight. They may end 2:35:18.560 --> 2:35:23.680 up underperforming expectations. Talk to me about Pennsylvania. I know 2:35:23.760 --> 2:35:26.560 it's still very early. I know we likely I mean, 2:35:26.640 --> 2:35:31.039 I know we have a big blue barrage there right now. 2:35:31.080 --> 2:35:34.120 What do you make of the ticket splitting that is 2:35:34.200 --> 2:35:40.120 going on there with Shapiro outperforming Fetterman. Yes, I'm very 2:35:40.120 --> 2:35:42.960 glad you brought that up. In fact, that's why Pat 2:35:43.000 --> 2:35:47.400 Toomey was re elected in twenty sixteen to the s 2:35:47.440 --> 2:35:51.480 say same seat. What I'm really watching is the collar 2:35:51.640 --> 2:35:56.800 counties around Philadelphia. This isn't an area that Oz has 2:35:56.840 --> 2:36:00.800 to win, he just has to come close. In twenty sixteen, 2:36:01.000 --> 2:36:06.080 the coller counties around Philadelphia went to Hillary Clinton by 2:36:06.320 --> 2:36:10.600 I think ten to fifteen points. Pat Toomey only lost 2:36:10.680 --> 2:36:13.480 him by five or six, so you know, he kept 2:36:13.520 --> 2:36:18.039 those types of counties closer. So that's in Pennsylvania. That's 2:36:18.080 --> 2:36:21.600 an area I'm really watching. That's really interesting. Miles. So 2:36:21.680 --> 2:36:24.560 we've seen a couple of initial calls by Decision desk 2:36:24.640 --> 2:36:27.840 and others for Brian Kemp in Georgia. That's what I 2:36:27.879 --> 2:36:29.440 was just taking a look at. I know it's too 2:36:29.480 --> 2:36:32.720 early necessarily for you to say, but would we then 2:36:32.879 --> 2:36:36.080 look at Camp's vote total visa vi Warnock? Is that 2:36:36.120 --> 2:36:37.960 looking pretty good for him? Is that a takeaway that 2:36:38.000 --> 2:36:42.120 we could say? Yeah, I mean I would say, it 2:36:42.160 --> 2:36:44.680 looks like, you know, I can see there being a 2:36:44.760 --> 2:36:49.640 lot of tickets splits between Kemp and Yayn Wornock. Interestingly, 2:36:49.680 --> 2:36:52.760 in Georgia, one thing that caught my attent attention is 2:36:52.800 --> 2:36:55.840 it looks like someone who's performing even better than Kemp 2:36:56.000 --> 2:37:00.200 is Brad Brafensberger was their second Who is their secrettech area? Say, 2:37:00.240 --> 2:37:03.800 you know he's a one who wouldn't you know who who? 2:37:04.200 --> 2:37:06.520 After the twenty twenty election, Trump was like, you know, hey, 2:37:06.560 --> 2:37:09.240 could you find you know, eleven thousand votes for me? 2:37:10.120 --> 2:37:13.600 And Brad Raffensburger stood up a Trump. So I think 2:37:13.600 --> 2:37:16.720 it's interesting. You may have some Democrats who say, no, 2:37:16.840 --> 2:37:20.920 we don't normally vote Republican, but we like that Camp 2:37:21.000 --> 2:37:24.360 and raffens Burger they did their job and stood up 2:37:24.400 --> 2:37:29.760 to Trump. Yeah, what can you tell us? Miles about 2:37:29.879 --> 2:37:33.400 the history here, because you know, one of the things 2:37:33.400 --> 2:37:36.320 that was really going against Democrats hard is they're the 2:37:36.360 --> 2:37:39.360 party in power, and party in power usually does not 2:37:39.480 --> 2:37:43.600 do well in these midterms, and so you know, they're 2:37:43.680 --> 2:37:45.879 still likely to lose the House. I mean, they're almost 2:37:45.879 --> 2:37:48.440 certain to lose the House. So it's not like this 2:37:48.520 --> 2:37:50.800 is a great year for them. But if they hold 2:37:50.840 --> 2:37:53.480 on to the Senate, which they certainly, you know, are 2:37:53.480 --> 2:37:56.280 in position out of the potential to do at least, 2:37:56.680 --> 2:37:59.040 that would be a sort of a victory in and 2:37:59.040 --> 2:38:01.840 of itself, and a lot less than what Republicans were 2:38:01.920 --> 2:38:05.880 hoping to get out of this day. You know, how 2:38:06.000 --> 2:38:10.160 unusual is that historically? And what can we say about 2:38:10.200 --> 2:38:14.920 what may have contributed to an unusual dynamic this election year? Yeah, 2:38:15.040 --> 2:38:20.120 it's it's I think in something like the forty mid 2:38:20.200 --> 2:38:25.320 terms since the Civil War, the president's mid the president's 2:38:25.320 --> 2:38:29.840 party almost always loses seats. The two exceptions were in 2:38:29.920 --> 2:38:33.240 nineteen ninety eight or two of the most recent exceptions 2:38:33.680 --> 2:38:36.920 were in nineteen ninety eight, where a lot of people 2:38:36.959 --> 2:38:40.039 didn't like how the Republicans were trying to impeach Bill Clinton. 2:38:40.160 --> 2:38:43.640 That kind of that back back far on them. And 2:38:43.760 --> 2:38:47.040 in O two where George W. Bush was really riding 2:38:47.120 --> 2:38:50.039 high after nine to eleven. You know, I think what 2:38:50.120 --> 2:38:53.000 could make this year? You know, maybe something of an 2:38:53.000 --> 2:38:57.320 exception is biding by most measures, isn't a popular president, 2:38:58.200 --> 2:39:02.920 but the Supreme Court isn't popular either, and that's kind 2:39:02.920 --> 2:39:08.520 of controlled by most of Republican appointed justices. One thing 2:39:08.600 --> 2:39:12.160 I was one thing that I think is maybe making 2:39:12.160 --> 2:39:18.879 this election different is we sort of touched on this earlier, 2:39:19.160 --> 2:39:23.439 but Democrats tend to be gaining with college educated white voters. 2:39:23.840 --> 2:39:28.039 They tend to vote at the highest rates. In twenty ten, 2:39:28.360 --> 2:39:34.080 I think the Republicans carry the college white vote excuse me, 2:39:34.720 --> 2:39:38.920 by sixty forty. In twenty eighteen, the Democrats won that 2:39:39.000 --> 2:39:42.240 group by about eight points. That's stuck in twenty twenty. 2:39:43.000 --> 2:39:46.320 So their gains with college educated whites, who are a 2:39:46.440 --> 2:39:50.400 higher propensity voting group, may be helping them in some 2:39:50.480 --> 2:39:54.080 of these key races. That's really interesting. Okay, So what 2:39:54.160 --> 2:39:55.920 are some other things people should take a look at 2:39:55.959 --> 2:39:58.600 as the night progressive? Miles? Is the night very young? 2:39:59.280 --> 2:40:01.720 Is it? Are we learning things? Where where would you 2:40:01.760 --> 2:40:03.920 put us in terms of where we are going to be? 2:40:04.520 --> 2:40:06.640 I would say it's quite young. I mean, I would 2:40:06.640 --> 2:40:09.400 do you know, I mean not to be selfish and 2:40:09.440 --> 2:40:13.480 stick to my home state of Virginia. Uh. Just the 2:40:13.520 --> 2:40:16.040 fact that it looks like Democrats are going to hold 2:40:16.040 --> 2:40:19.880 two of those three competitive Thiefs Center, that to me 2:40:20.000 --> 2:40:22.360 is a pretty good sign that this might not be 2:40:22.520 --> 2:40:26.400 as big a Republican night as something expect. Yep, I 2:40:26.440 --> 2:40:28.360 think that's the That's the only takeaway that we can 2:40:28.400 --> 2:40:30.400 really come away with right now. It was great talking 2:40:30.400 --> 2:40:31.920 with you, Miles once again. Thank you so much for 2:40:32.000 --> 2:40:34.640 joining us, Sarah, We're fantasy. Yeah, super super helpful. Thank you, 2:40:34.640 --> 2:40:40.000 miss Thank you absolutely so. While he was talking reflections takeaways, 2:40:40.000 --> 2:40:41.440 what do you guys? So I want to ask you 2:40:41.480 --> 2:40:43.640 guys a question. Yeah. This this popped into my head 2:40:43.640 --> 2:40:46.119 as I was listening to him talk. Remember when Mitch 2:40:46.200 --> 2:40:49.320 McConnell was getting in that back and forth with Rick Scott. Yes, 2:40:49.600 --> 2:40:51.960 because Rick Scott released an agenda and said we're going 2:40:52.000 --> 2:40:54.480 to run on this and like seventy percent of it 2:40:54.520 --> 2:40:58.440 was like cut some terribly on podcast. So my question 2:40:58.520 --> 2:41:01.959 for you is, Yeah, is Mitch McConnell correct in that 2:41:02.160 --> 2:41:05.920 basically the Republican plan should have been everybody shut the 2:41:05.920 --> 2:41:10.320 fuck up. Yeah no, yes, I think he was. And 2:41:10.360 --> 2:41:12.400 this is where Republicans will be. This is my Republicans. 2:41:12.400 --> 2:41:16.039 We're in trouble when Trump was president. You shouldn't say anything, 2:41:16.480 --> 2:41:19.800 yeah you actually you should just be like things are bad, 2:41:21.600 --> 2:41:23.480 we have this like vague thing to make them better. 2:41:24.600 --> 2:41:27.240 Because if you say, oh, are you word oft inflation? 2:41:27.640 --> 2:41:30.840 Word about energy prices, it's the country's vibe off. We're 2:41:30.840 --> 2:41:33.280 going to cut a security. That's not a good message. 2:41:33.640 --> 2:41:39.200 So that's the that's the that's your inflation. Certainly what 2:41:39.520 --> 2:41:42.760 let's give it to me. I mean if they had 2:41:42.879 --> 2:41:48.440 run Glenn Youngkin type Plaine Vanilla wearing the sweater vest 2:41:48.680 --> 2:41:56.200 in offensive, rich Duke sas banker, wasn't Carlisle your hard 2:41:56.280 --> 2:41:59.880 for Carle So they couldn't even make the case against 2:41:59.879 --> 2:42:04.080 anyway if they just run like Bland, no record have 2:42:04.280 --> 2:42:07.360 in like put him through the primary. And this is 2:42:07.400 --> 2:42:09.200 what they did with young Kin. He didn't have a 2:42:09.280 --> 2:42:11.720 normal like voters go to the polls primary. He was 2:42:11.760 --> 2:42:15.680 basically picked by Republican elites. Didn't have to say much 2:42:15.680 --> 2:42:20.080 about anything controversial. And you know, if Republicans had candidates 2:42:20.080 --> 2:42:22.760 that were like that in all of these Senate races, 2:42:22.920 --> 2:42:26.000 I think we would see a different result. But I 2:42:26.000 --> 2:42:28.200 also think the way Miles put it is very interesting 2:42:28.320 --> 2:42:34.360 because effectively, throughout history, typically party in power does poorly 2:42:34.480 --> 2:42:37.920 in midterm elections. But what he's saying is, effectively, because 2:42:37.959 --> 2:42:42.680 the Supreme Court made this really dramatic decision, people didn't 2:42:42.720 --> 2:42:46.760 have the sense of like Democrats are in charge of everything. 2:42:47.240 --> 2:42:49.920 They saw there was this other power center that was 2:42:50.040 --> 2:42:53.840 actually controlled by Republicans. And so he's saying that's what 2:42:54.080 --> 2:42:59.360 made this historical situation potentially a little different, is because 2:42:59.360 --> 2:43:02.760 it didn't actually feel to voters like there's just one 2:43:02.800 --> 2:43:05.000 party that's controlling the country right now. I think that's 2:43:05.000 --> 2:43:06.959 an interesting way. I think it is really interesting, and 2:43:07.000 --> 2:43:10.279 you know, I just to try and piece little signs together. 2:43:10.480 --> 2:43:12.879 You know, given the fact that it is early to 2:43:12.920 --> 2:43:17.120 not have those two Virginia seats go red is somewhat 2:43:17.120 --> 2:43:19.960 of a bell weather. On top of you have NBC 2:43:20.120 --> 2:43:23.800 News now calling the race straight up for Michael Bennett 2:43:23.840 --> 2:43:27.400 only what right, So it's not even close, and as 2:43:27.480 --> 2:43:29.920 Dave Wigel puts it, this does not seem like a 2:43:29.959 --> 2:43:33.440 midterm electorate that's going to bounce Patty Murray or Michael Bennett. 2:43:33.440 --> 2:43:35.600 And I think that's an important takeaway, right, which is 2:43:35.600 --> 2:43:39.440 that that's the quote red rain, that's the quote that 2:43:39.440 --> 2:43:42.560 it shows you that the red puddle, the red puddle puddle, 2:43:42.640 --> 2:43:45.360 which is that I thought there was, let's say, ten 2:43:45.360 --> 2:43:47.240 percent chance. I think that I said that on the show. 2:43:47.280 --> 2:43:49.440 I thought there was a ten percent chance, and my 2:43:49.600 --> 2:43:52.320 emotional leanings were genuinely putting me there, but I was 2:43:52.360 --> 2:43:54.400 trying to be objective about it. I was like, you know, 2:43:54.400 --> 2:43:57.560 I think there's a chance Patty Murray could could lose, right, 2:43:57.560 --> 2:43:59.640 And I was telling you before I'd heard rumors this 2:43:59.720 --> 2:44:02.320 morning she's worried about it. They were saying, look, guys, 2:44:02.360 --> 2:44:03.960 it's going to take a long time. I don't think 2:44:04.000 --> 2:44:06.560 she says in danger given the Michael Bennett vote, given 2:44:06.600 --> 2:44:09.600 the electorate that we've seen in Virginia. And that is 2:44:09.640 --> 2:44:13.359 just going to be a really interesting, multifaceted takeaway for everybody, 2:44:13.360 --> 2:44:15.800 because Crystal one could make the case. And I think 2:44:15.800 --> 2:44:18.280 you're right, which is that if the Dems do hang 2:44:18.320 --> 2:44:21.640 on and they do better, especially if if Warnock wins, 2:44:21.680 --> 2:44:23.119 I mean, I think that's going to be a tremendous 2:44:23.640 --> 2:44:26.320 upset for them. It really will be one of those 2:44:26.400 --> 2:44:30.240 where it would be a vindication for the abortion first messaging, 2:44:30.280 --> 2:44:32.640 and I think that will be the absolute takeaway for 2:44:32.760 --> 2:44:35.600 the MSNBC kind of left very convenient, you know, for 2:44:35.640 --> 2:44:38.640 the centers of power. That's going to be a fascinating 2:44:38.680 --> 2:44:41.520 thing though, because in some ways it did work some 2:44:41.640 --> 2:44:44.400 of what you talked about, Kyle. Look, whether it's true 2:44:44.480 --> 2:44:45.720 or not, they're not going to talk about it, so 2:44:45.840 --> 2:44:48.640 I agree. So I agree, whether it is true on 2:44:48.680 --> 2:44:50.800 that front or not, I don't think it will necessarily. 2:44:50.959 --> 2:44:53.600 I also think it will be a vindication of the 2:44:53.680 --> 2:44:56.920 Dems talking as much as they are about democracy again, 2:44:57.120 --> 2:45:00.480 whether or not it is even true at the batt level. 2:45:00.520 --> 2:45:03.120 So trying to think now about the meta takeaways from 2:45:03.120 --> 2:45:06.000 what we generally see things are going on tonight, we 2:45:06.040 --> 2:45:08.720 don't yet know. If it's very early obviously Arizona, I 2:45:08.840 --> 2:45:11.440 still expect to be, you know, a really crazy one 2:45:11.440 --> 2:45:13.400 that we're gonna have to follow for days on end. 2:45:13.480 --> 2:45:16.480 Same thing in Pennsylvania, et cetera. Let's put that aside. 2:45:17.080 --> 2:45:19.680 It is interesting about what the meta debates will be 2:45:19.680 --> 2:45:21.760 because from what I can see right now on the right, 2:45:22.000 --> 2:45:24.879 there's only one thing coming out Florida is a red state. 2:45:25.200 --> 2:45:27.320 It's like, Okay, well that's great. They're putting up the part, 2:45:27.320 --> 2:45:30.680 but they're not but they're not celebrating really everything else. 2:45:30.760 --> 2:45:33.680 So that's kind of interesting to me. Okay, I want 2:45:33.720 --> 2:45:35.920 to know if you guys think this is a crazy thought, 2:45:35.959 --> 2:45:38.080 But like, in a way, I kind of think this 2:45:38.160 --> 2:45:41.080 might be a rebuke of Trump, because Trump is still 2:45:41.080 --> 2:45:44.320 the shadow, like, you know, leader of the Republican Party, 2:45:44.360 --> 2:45:46.080 and every time he pops up in the news, it's 2:45:46.120 --> 2:45:49.120 for some psychotic thing that he said or did. And 2:45:49.200 --> 2:45:51.320 I do think that there at some point there was 2:45:51.360 --> 2:45:53.760 a breaking point among the American public. Obviously, he didn't 2:45:53.800 --> 2:45:55.920 get reelected in twenty twenty, and I feel like he's 2:45:55.920 --> 2:45:58.160 only steadily in the eyes of the normy, the moderate, 2:45:58.200 --> 2:46:00.520 the independent, the average Joe and Jay, and he's gone 2:46:00.520 --> 2:46:03.120 down and down and down in their estimation. And to 2:46:03.160 --> 2:46:05.960 the extent that this party is still effectively tied to him, 2:46:06.000 --> 2:46:08.280 whether or not they even like want to be optically 2:46:08.840 --> 2:46:11.320 to the extent that they are, is that sort of like, 2:46:11.440 --> 2:46:13.480 you know, an anchor around their neck that they can't shake. 2:46:13.640 --> 2:46:15.920 I don't think it's the weird thing is I don't 2:46:15.920 --> 2:46:18.440 think it's a repudiation of Trump, it's a repudiation of 2:46:18.480 --> 2:46:23.600 the Republican Party because things trend this way things, and 2:46:23.600 --> 2:46:27.080 repudiation is like a little overstating impart the realitiest people 2:46:27.200 --> 2:46:30.160 don't like, which is in the polls where the country's 2:46:30.240 --> 2:46:34.000 going right now. But they don't trust Republicans to take 2:46:34.040 --> 2:46:37.200 the to take the will either, right, That's what I think. 2:46:37.240 --> 2:46:40.440 I think, that's that was. It has nothing that is 2:46:40.520 --> 2:46:42.800 Trump and it also isn't Trump. Well, let me let 2:46:42.800 --> 2:46:48.080 me temper our the positive vibes for Democrats with some 2:46:48.160 --> 2:46:50.440 new news out of Georgia, which is that Herschel Walker 2:46:50.440 --> 2:46:53.840 has now taken the lead. There you go, with sixty 2:46:53.920 --> 2:46:56.680 nine percent of votes in He's at forty nine point 2:46:56.720 --> 2:46:59.960 six percent under the just under that fifty percentage point mark. 2:47:00.560 --> 2:47:03.160 Rafael Warnick got forty eight point six percent, So they 2:47:03.200 --> 2:47:05.520 must have gotten a big jump dump of some you know, 2:47:05.600 --> 2:47:08.600 Republican area that's positive for them, or day of voting 2:47:08.680 --> 2:47:12.280 or whatever. And now the New York Times with their 2:47:12.360 --> 2:47:17.160 like needle situation, they actually have Walker as a sixty 2:47:17.240 --> 2:47:21.680 one percent chance of winning in Georgia, so they have 2:47:21.800 --> 2:47:24.280 Walker favored at this point. Now that doesn't say anything 2:47:24.320 --> 2:47:26.440 about whether it's going to go to the runoff whatever whatever. 2:47:26.520 --> 2:47:28.800 That's all And you know, sixty one percent is not 2:47:28.840 --> 2:47:31.959 saying he's it's a done deal. But that picture has 2:47:32.040 --> 2:47:37.680 just shifted significantly towards Republicans. They have right now Fetterman 2:47:38.200 --> 2:47:41.199 with a fifty three percent chance of winning in Pennsylvania Senate. 2:47:41.240 --> 2:47:43.280 So that one is still just like with the numbers 2:47:43.280 --> 2:47:45.640 we have in nobody has any idea how is it 2:47:45.720 --> 2:47:48.959 counted in Georgia, Like, so, where's the next dump coming from? 2:47:50.120 --> 2:47:53.400 It's it's a mixer, no I match. It also depends 2:47:53.520 --> 2:47:58.120 on individual counties because sometimes individual counties won't be reporting 2:47:58.120 --> 2:48:00.000 at a big I remember in twenty twenty we went 2:48:00.080 --> 2:48:01.879 through this with Fulton County and you know a bunch 2:48:01.879 --> 2:48:04.240 of these other places. So if it is really tied, 2:48:04.280 --> 2:48:06.760 it could still take a while. But you know, noteworthy 2:48:06.840 --> 2:48:08.800 herschel Walker is pulling ahead though he's got you know, 2:48:08.920 --> 2:48:11.400 fifty percent now. Yeah, one, I'm trying to remember if 2:48:11.440 --> 2:48:15.200 it was mail in election day more mail in in Georgia. Well, 2:48:15.240 --> 2:48:18.280 if there's mailing, there's a early vote and there's election day, 2:48:18.360 --> 2:48:21.280 right right, So in terms of happen in New Hampshire though, 2:48:21.320 --> 2:48:23.800 I mean, she looks pretty solid to hold on to 2:48:23.879 --> 2:48:26.360 that seat. They have her with a seventy six percent 2:48:26.440 --> 2:48:29.360 chance of winning based on what is in so far. 2:48:29.560 --> 2:48:32.520 So you know, the picture is still muddled. I think 2:48:32.600 --> 2:48:34.600 one thing we can say very clearly is the red 2:48:34.600 --> 2:48:38.000 tsunami did not material less. Now you could still end 2:48:38.080 --> 2:48:40.800 up with Republicans winning Georgia, you could still end up 2:48:40.840 --> 2:48:43.560 with Republicans winning Nevada. I still end up with them 2:48:43.560 --> 2:48:46.920 winning Pennsylvania. You still end up with them winning Arizona, 2:48:47.200 --> 2:48:49.120 and they would still look at that as that was 2:48:49.160 --> 2:48:51.240 a really good night for us. It is a good yeah, 2:48:51.240 --> 2:48:53.320 there's no question. So how as senators would that get 2:48:53.360 --> 2:48:56.840 them to that's fifty four? Fifty four is like three 2:48:56.920 --> 2:48:58.560 fifty four is the top end of what I write, 2:48:58.560 --> 2:49:01.320 So fifty three to fifty five. So if they won, 2:49:01.520 --> 2:49:04.880 and this is for David Shor's analysis on here. This 2:49:04.920 --> 2:49:07.039 is for David shores analysis, which is that if they 2:49:07.320 --> 2:49:09.800 get anywhere between fifty three and fifty five, they have 2:49:10.000 --> 2:49:14.560 a probability actually of getting a filibuster proof majority twenty 2:49:14.600 --> 2:49:16.879 twenty four in the event that Trump would win. So 2:49:17.120 --> 2:49:20.240 that's kind of interesting. However, if we do come out 2:49:20.280 --> 2:49:24.920 at fifty one or even at fifty, then that's a 2:49:24.920 --> 2:49:28.880 totally different story as to what exactly we can expect 2:49:28.959 --> 2:49:31.760 and whatnot. So I don't know. It's it's really really 2:49:31.879 --> 2:49:34.959 interesting to look at all this. Tim Alberta tweeting this, 2:49:35.040 --> 2:49:37.600 he's an analyst over at the Atlantic quote, this is 2:49:37.640 --> 2:49:40.680 not the red tsunami. In fact, it could be could 2:49:40.760 --> 2:49:44.000 be the best midterm cycle for an incumbent president since 2:49:44.040 --> 2:49:46.280 the Rally round the Flag election of two thousand and two, 2:49:46.440 --> 2:49:49.200 which if that's true, that would just be marpha. That 2:49:49.200 --> 2:49:53.040 would bust every narrative. That would bust literally every narrative. 2:49:53.560 --> 2:49:57.760 Moderate like that wouldn't take much, though, because I think 2:49:57.840 --> 2:50:00.240 the like all Biden would have to do it was 2:50:00.280 --> 2:50:02.760 like lose what twenty seats in the House or something 2:50:02.879 --> 2:50:04.400 or thirty seats and he would still be the best. 2:50:04.440 --> 2:50:08.200 I think you're right, Yeah, you're right. Which is that? 2:50:08.280 --> 2:50:10.760 And as many people are pointing out their replies, they're like, yeah, 2:50:10.879 --> 2:50:13.320 that would help though, because they've been waives every single 2:50:13.400 --> 2:50:16.600 time from two thousand to two thousand or two thousand 2:50:16.640 --> 2:50:20.560 and six to consider that for everything. So anyway, I 2:50:20.600 --> 2:50:23.480 think it is really interesting to consider it all within 2:50:23.520 --> 2:50:25.680 that framework. Chris, So, I have one more for you. 2:50:25.680 --> 2:50:27.879 Could I just throw this out here ahead or yeah? 2:50:27.959 --> 2:50:32.160 So Hocal in New York. Now, this Hocal versus Zelden 2:50:32.240 --> 2:50:34.360 governor race in New York is a real race. There's 2:50:34.360 --> 2:50:37.720 been a lot of talk about that recently. Hogle takes 2:50:37.760 --> 2:50:41.840 seventy five percent of the early vote in New York City. 2:50:42.440 --> 2:50:45.400 That doesn't tell us much New York City is like, 2:50:45.440 --> 2:50:49.000 I'm surprised it's not ninety two percent for HOCl. But 2:50:50.600 --> 2:50:52.760 I actually thought that said seventy five percent of early 2:50:52.840 --> 2:50:54.800 vote in New York, which is why I presented it 2:50:54.800 --> 2:50:56.160 to you, and then I read it, I said, oh, 2:50:56.200 --> 2:51:01.160 okay in the city. Well, I'm wasting everybody's time, Marshall, Kyle. 2:51:01.280 --> 2:51:03.480 We have Emily and Ryan on standby. Do you guys 2:51:03.480 --> 2:51:06.800 have final thoughts before we'll have a five minute period. 2:51:06.840 --> 2:51:08.560 We're just going to play some campaign ads that are 2:51:08.600 --> 2:51:10.960 closing for all of you while we get them all 2:51:11.000 --> 2:51:13.080 in here. And also, I need another Liquid death to 2:51:13.120 --> 2:51:17.600 part to murder my thirst. I'm sorry, by the way, Yeah, 2:51:17.640 --> 2:51:20.240 by the way, they don't. They gave us some free 2:51:20.280 --> 2:51:23.039 Liquid death and I genuinely enjoy it. So thank you 2:51:23.600 --> 2:51:26.720 to final thoughts. One shout out to the viewer who 2:51:26.760 --> 2:51:30.160 called out the surface. We are dozens of us, but 2:51:30.200 --> 2:51:33.200 we are strong and we love our Microsoft surfaces too. 2:51:33.320 --> 2:51:37.360 Though serious note, I think our early call that this 2:51:37.440 --> 2:51:40.000 wasn't a red wave was kind of vindicated. But no 2:51:40.040 --> 2:51:42.960 matter what happens tonight, I think it was clear when 2:51:43.000 --> 2:51:46.760 we started this recording, I just didn't feel like you're 2:51:46.760 --> 2:51:49.800 going to have like this like transformation, like red wave 2:51:50.120 --> 2:51:53.240 election that many people on Twitter especially, we've been tweeting around. Yeah. 2:51:53.280 --> 2:51:56.240 So that's that's just gonna takeaway. It's just not going 2:51:56.320 --> 2:51:59.040 to be We are not going to talk with this 2:51:59.400 --> 2:52:02.440 election the way we talk about twenty ten, nineteen ninety. Definitely, 2:52:02.480 --> 2:52:07.279 that is a really important not yet Barack Obama got Yeah. 2:52:07.320 --> 2:52:10.520 So the other day on my show, I made a 2:52:10.520 --> 2:52:14.200 similar argument that I want to just be wishy washing 2:52:14.200 --> 2:52:15.880 an agnostic out and I said, I don't what's gonna happen. 2:52:15.920 --> 2:52:17.640 Let wait to see, and in part that's what we're 2:52:17.640 --> 2:52:19.200 doing here. But also at the same time, I said, 2:52:19.240 --> 2:52:20.800 if you had a gun to my head, I'd say 2:52:20.840 --> 2:52:23.879 fifty one or fifty two in the Senate for Republicans 2:52:24.240 --> 2:52:28.039 and they'll pick up maybe twenty twenty five seats in 2:52:28.080 --> 2:52:30.879 the House, which puts it significantly below the twenty ten 2:52:31.760 --> 2:52:34.440 red wave. So and as of right now, it looks 2:52:34.440 --> 2:52:37.560 like that's what's panning out. But you know, it ain't 2:52:37.560 --> 2:52:40.800 over until it's over. And it's very possible that that 2:52:41.200 --> 2:52:43.119 it looks that prediction looks good now, but it's very 2:52:43.120 --> 2:52:45.720 possible that it doesn't materialize. And again, I think the 2:52:45.720 --> 2:52:47.720 reason why this was such a difficult election to get 2:52:47.879 --> 2:52:49.840 to get our finger on the pulls of is because 2:52:50.280 --> 2:52:53.480 there's just so many complicating factors. The inflation thing, the 2:52:53.520 --> 2:52:55.920 crime thing. I mean, only nineteen percent of the country 2:52:55.920 --> 2:52:57.560 thinks for going on the right track. I mean, this 2:52:57.600 --> 2:52:59.240 is something that it should have been a schill lacking 2:52:59.280 --> 2:53:01.680 for the Democrats. But when you add in the fifty 2:53:01.680 --> 2:53:04.440 two percent of the Republicans running deny the election, and 2:53:04.480 --> 2:53:06.959 you add in Trump, still I think an anchor around 2:53:06.959 --> 2:53:09.800 their neck. You add in Biden, student loan dead reduction 2:53:09.920 --> 2:53:13.080 and Roby Wad being overturned, it's like, I don't fucking 2:53:13.080 --> 2:53:15.440 know what's gonna happen. We're all just waiting. And I 2:53:15.440 --> 2:53:17.480 say this every time. This is why I love election night. 2:53:17.560 --> 2:53:19.360 I like to be humble, but beyond that, like I 2:53:19.440 --> 2:53:22.640 like to see what people think. Yeah, it always surprises 2:53:22.720 --> 2:53:24.720 us no matter what. And I think that has been 2:53:24.800 --> 2:53:28.760 vindicated tonight. Yep. Indeed. All right, guys, Okay, guys, thank 2:53:28.800 --> 2:53:31.920 you both so much. You both did a fantastic, fantastic job. 2:53:31.920 --> 2:53:34.520 All Right, everybody, give us five minutes. We're going to 2:53:34.560 --> 2:53:37.120 play some mads closing pitches from all the candidates for 2:53:37.160 --> 2:53:38.640 all of you, and we'll be right back here at 2:53:38.680 --> 2:53:40.560 the desk with Emily and Ryan. Let's get to a 2:53:40.600 --> 2:53:43.560 control room. Let's roll. It's crazy. Crystal was just saying 2:53:43.600 --> 2:53:46.440 she wants Tim Ryan to run for president. Right, that's 2:53:46.520 --> 2:53:51.720 right again, you'll actually really been the whole nation. That's 2:53:51.720 --> 2:53:54.520 a great triviat question. Did Tim Ryan run for president? 2:53:54.640 --> 2:53:57.280 You know, it's funny. I was doing a monologue about 2:53:57.280 --> 2:54:00.160 like Biden twenty twenty four, and I was remembering of 2:54:00.200 --> 2:54:02.200 the people that ran, and I was like, wow, we 2:54:02.400 --> 2:54:05.840 just never heard from them. Again. It trivia thing like 2:54:05.879 --> 2:54:08.080 did this like of twenty different people, did they run 2:54:08.120 --> 2:54:11.160 for president? I remember John de Lady, Oh, I do 2:54:11.280 --> 2:54:14.400 remember that. Unfortunately, Crystal, if I recall, we were forced 2:54:14.440 --> 2:54:16.640 to interview him like twelve times over at rising and 2:54:16.680 --> 2:54:19.800 I like the thirteenth time, I was like, they were good. 2:54:19.920 --> 2:54:23.760 They were good. I cannot sit with this man. Okay, 2:54:24.240 --> 2:54:27.040 all of that aside. Emily Ryan, you guys have been 2:54:27.080 --> 2:54:29.760 watching the results, You've been taking it in. What you 2:54:29.920 --> 2:54:31.520 what do you guys top takeaways? Emily, what do you 2:54:31.520 --> 2:54:34.120 think so far? So I agree with much of what 2:54:34.160 --> 2:54:36.680 has been said that what I think right now is 2:54:36.680 --> 2:54:38.960 happening is we're teetering between whether this is a good 2:54:39.040 --> 2:54:41.840 night for Republicans or a great night for Republicans. And 2:54:41.879 --> 2:54:44.880 I agree with what Kyle and Marshall were saying as 2:54:44.920 --> 2:54:47.680 they were giving their final thoughts, which is that it's 2:54:47.800 --> 2:54:50.680 looking more like this is just a good night for Republicans, 2:54:50.720 --> 2:54:53.240 Like this is politics as usual when you have an 2:54:53.320 --> 2:54:56.600 unpopular president and a bad economy. This is just going 2:54:56.680 --> 2:54:59.120 to be a sort of an easy win for Republicans 2:54:59.160 --> 2:55:01.640 and they're going to stop there. I do think there 2:55:01.640 --> 2:55:04.360 are some interesting indications. I think people should be watching 2:55:04.400 --> 2:55:06.840 Texas really closely. The real Grand Valley slager. You know 2:55:06.879 --> 2:55:09.000 all about it. But one of the things that stands 2:55:09.040 --> 2:55:12.440 out to me is where Maria Alvirs Salazar one reelection 2:55:12.959 --> 2:55:16.480 in Florida's twenty seventh district, which was redrawn a bit, 2:55:16.520 --> 2:55:18.320 but redrawn a bit still if you look at daily 2:55:18.400 --> 2:55:21.039 coosis metrics, withdrawn a bit to the point where it 2:55:21.120 --> 2:55:24.000 was still a razor thin margin for Donald Trump in 2:55:24.080 --> 2:55:27.879 a twenty twenty election. She that was an absolute blowout. 2:55:28.160 --> 2:55:31.080 And so what we're talking about there is the Hispanic vote. 2:55:31.160 --> 2:55:35.400 We're talking about whether Republicans made inroads, and that's particularly 2:55:35.400 --> 2:55:37.800 with the Cuban vote. Of course, in Miami, Marie al 2:55:37.879 --> 2:55:42.760 Virus Salazar is a long time Telemundo person. But if 2:55:42.800 --> 2:55:45.720 we're looking at that race, I then want to see 2:55:45.720 --> 2:55:48.280 what happens. I want to see what Texas thirty four 2:55:48.400 --> 2:55:51.080 looks like with Myra Flores's reelection. I want to see 2:55:51.080 --> 2:55:53.760 if and that's a redrawn district too. So there's where 2:55:53.760 --> 2:55:56.240 I'm looking at, particularly because I think if those indications 2:55:56.360 --> 2:55:58.840 come in, we might see different things in the Oregon 2:55:58.920 --> 2:56:01.880 governor's race. We might see different things in Wisconsin. So 2:56:02.600 --> 2:56:05.160 I still don't think we know whether it's a good 2:56:05.240 --> 2:56:07.120 night or a great night for Republicans, although I do 2:56:07.240 --> 2:56:09.800 think where things stand now just good. Yeah, I think 2:56:09.840 --> 2:56:11.199 you're I think you're right. What do you think Brian, 2:56:12.080 --> 2:56:14.200 so well, it's a good night so far for weed 2:56:14.240 --> 2:56:17.520 and psychedelics. Okay, so in other words, it's a great 2:56:17.600 --> 2:56:20.920 night for Ryan Grew. First, there are two. There are 2:56:20.959 --> 2:56:25.160 two key abortion referendums that I mean, there are several. 2:56:25.560 --> 2:56:29.040 There's Vermont, which guess what it's going to win, California 2:56:29.120 --> 2:56:31.560 guess what that one's going to win. But the ones 2:56:31.600 --> 2:56:34.080 people were looking at, we're Michigan and Kentucky, and so 2:56:34.240 --> 2:56:38.040 far voters in both of those states are overwhelmingly approving 2:56:38.160 --> 2:56:41.160 abortion rights. It could it could still swing, but I 2:56:41.240 --> 2:56:47.720 think Kentucky following Kansas has to make people think differently 2:56:47.760 --> 2:56:51.200 about where this country is when it comes to abortion rights. 2:56:51.280 --> 2:56:55.800 I think not only those ballot initiatives, but also these 2:56:55.920 --> 2:56:59.160 results have to make people think differently about abortion rights 2:56:59.240 --> 2:57:01.680 because I mean, I was among the people who were 2:57:01.760 --> 2:57:04.040 out there like screaming and beating my childs Like you 2:57:04.160 --> 2:57:06.200 have to talk about the freaking economy, Like where is 2:57:06.280 --> 2:57:08.800 your economic message? You can't run every ad on abortion. 2:57:10.280 --> 2:57:12.760 Maybe you can run every ad on abortion, because I mean, 2:57:12.879 --> 2:57:14.520 right now, yeah, we don't know. There are a lot 2:57:14.560 --> 2:57:17.000 of seats down et cetera, et cetera. It's definitely not 2:57:17.120 --> 2:57:20.440 the red tsunami. I mean, Democrats won two out of 2:57:20.480 --> 2:57:23.840 the three swing districts in Virginia. There was a lot 2:57:23.920 --> 2:57:27.200 of Republican opium around New Hampshire. That bulldeck was going 2:57:27.240 --> 2:57:29.120 to pull that one out back to win one of 2:57:29.160 --> 2:57:31.520 those houses is out. Yeah, they were going to win 2:57:31.560 --> 2:57:33.160 one of the houseas they thought they were going to 2:57:33.200 --> 2:57:35.080 win a house seat in Rhode Island. I mean, so 2:57:35.480 --> 2:57:41.760 the maximalist red tsunami did not happen. Now, do Republicans 2:57:41.879 --> 2:57:45.240 manage to cobble together a bear majority in the Senate, 2:57:45.360 --> 2:57:48.280 that's possible. They're certainly going to get control of the House, 2:57:48.320 --> 2:57:50.640 there's no doubt about that. But you know, Emily, you 2:57:50.720 --> 2:57:52.560 said like, oh, this is just what happens when the 2:57:52.600 --> 2:57:55.000 economy's bad. In the present's approval rating is in the 2:57:55.080 --> 2:57:58.520 low forties. No, what happens normally when you have that 2:57:58.600 --> 2:58:01.560 set of affairs is is the red student, the shellacking, 2:58:01.640 --> 2:58:04.680 the what you normally get in you know, seventy percent 2:58:04.879 --> 2:58:07.600 wrong track and everybody like, oh my god, the economy's 2:58:07.680 --> 2:58:10.360 terrible and gas prices are high and inflation is out 2:58:10.400 --> 2:58:12.320 of control, and I really don't like this president. I 2:58:12.400 --> 2:58:14.720 really don't want him to run for president again, you 2:58:14.879 --> 2:58:19.560 get a shellacking. So to me, what's really striking is 2:58:19.680 --> 2:58:23.080 that that hasn't materialized. And I think it's because of 2:58:23.320 --> 2:58:26.800 two things. I think it is, like, obviously, abortion, you know, 2:58:27.160 --> 2:58:30.960 is important here, and I think abortion did contribute to 2:58:31.080 --> 2:58:33.720 some of the problems Republicans had in terms of the 2:58:34.080 --> 2:58:36.720 candidates that they chose and the sense that not just 2:58:36.879 --> 2:58:40.119 on abortion, but on a whole raft of issue, these 2:58:40.240 --> 2:58:42.680 people are freaking crazy and they're out to lunch. And 2:58:42.720 --> 2:58:44.879 I might not be that abby with the Democrats in charge, 2:58:44.920 --> 2:58:46.720 but I don't think I can hand off the ball 2:58:46.840 --> 2:58:48.560 to these people. Do you think. I think it's interesting 2:58:48.600 --> 2:58:50.920 because so Ryan and I were just on Megan Kelly 2:58:51.160 --> 2:58:53.480 and Ryan was talking about you you mean such an 2:58:53.480 --> 2:58:57.400 interesting point, which is that the youth vote in twenty 2:58:57.440 --> 2:59:00.040 eighteen was really crucial for Democrats, and we actually I 2:59:00.200 --> 2:59:02.400 still don't know if the youth vote in twenty twenty 2:59:02.440 --> 2:59:05.040 two will be crucial to Democrats, particularly because of this 2:59:05.160 --> 2:59:08.040 issue of abortion and the reason and I think this 2:59:08.160 --> 2:59:10.360 gets lost in sort of the belt white chatter, especially 2:59:10.400 --> 2:59:13.640 the last couple of weeks that Democrats ran hard on abortion. 2:59:14.120 --> 2:59:16.840 It's not just because they're completely out of touch, which 2:59:16.879 --> 2:59:19.840 as well, though they are, they are completely out of touch. 2:59:19.920 --> 2:59:23.360 It's not just that, it's also though, because of turnout. 2:59:23.680 --> 2:59:26.480 Midterm elections are about turnout. And if you think you 2:59:26.560 --> 2:59:29.680 can get your base to turn out for democracy and abortion, 2:59:30.200 --> 2:59:32.600 because those are the people you do not want sitting 2:59:32.680 --> 2:59:35.039 on the couch come election night, then you are going 2:59:35.080 --> 2:59:37.440 to run a bunch of ads on democracy and abortion. 2:59:37.600 --> 2:59:40.120 Now did they overdo it? I think very clearly the 2:59:40.240 --> 2:59:42.520 answer to that is yes, they didn't have a good 2:59:42.560 --> 2:59:45.480 economic message. I think though that's why they were running 2:59:45.520 --> 2:59:48.680 on those things. And the other point that I'll make is, 2:59:48.760 --> 2:59:51.000 like I guess I was talking about the context of 2:59:51.080 --> 2:59:54.120 the realignment. So this bigger conversation about whether it's a 2:59:54.200 --> 2:59:58.680 great night for Republicans make a generation defined it right right, right, 2:59:58.760 --> 3:00:00.960 Like if this is a real turning point pivot for 3:00:01.120 --> 3:00:05.800 Republicans because you see, for instance, in roads with black 3:00:05.840 --> 3:00:08.040 and Hispanic voters, like I think we should be looking 3:00:08.080 --> 3:00:11.080 really closely at Milwaukee and Philadelphia. It's not like the 3:00:11.160 --> 3:00:13.040 black vote in Milwaukee and Philadelphia is going to go 3:00:13.080 --> 3:00:17.400 to Republicans, but are the margins slimmer, then they should 3:00:17.480 --> 3:00:21.760 be for a midterm election for Democrats. That's those are 3:00:21.800 --> 3:00:23.880 the sort of things that I think will will make 3:00:23.920 --> 3:00:26.520 it a quote great night for Republicans if that's what 3:00:26.600 --> 3:00:29.320 they're looking at. But no, I think that's a good point, Christal. 3:00:29.440 --> 3:00:31.520 I've got a piece of data here to add into 3:00:31.600 --> 3:00:34.360 the conversation. This is from Nate con of the New 3:00:34.440 --> 3:00:38.199 York Times. He says, it's still early, obviously, but Fetterman 3:00:38.400 --> 3:00:42.080 is running ahead of Biden the Pennsylvania counties that seem 3:00:42.280 --> 3:00:46.200 like they may be complete that. I mean, if that 3:00:46.360 --> 3:00:50.360 is running out of Biden, then he's gonna win. And now, 3:00:50.480 --> 3:00:53.400 on the other hand, maybe Oz dramatically outperforms Trump in 3:00:53.520 --> 3:00:55.760 the red counties, and that sort of polarization is certainly 3:00:55.840 --> 3:00:59.320 something that we have seen. But you know, the other 3:00:59.440 --> 3:01:02.400 thing that Conas said is it looks like Democrats are 3:01:02.440 --> 3:01:05.720 running about a point ahead of our expectations outside of Florida. 3:01:05.800 --> 3:01:09.000 So put Florida aside. I mean, I guess the question 3:01:09.360 --> 3:01:13.560 for Republicans is, you know, maybe as you get further 3:01:13.680 --> 3:01:15.880 out west, maybe there is a different dynamic. Maybe in 3:01:15.959 --> 3:01:18.960 states where you have a more significant Latino population, maybe 3:01:19.000 --> 3:01:21.320 you have more of that realignment, more of those shifts 3:01:21.840 --> 3:01:24.320 and so even though they you know, it looks like 3:01:24.400 --> 3:01:27.760 Georgia probably going to a runoff, Pennsylvania, who knows. At 3:01:27.800 --> 3:01:30.800 this point, New Hampshire certainly totally off the table. Do 3:01:30.920 --> 3:01:33.360 they pick up in Arizona, do they pick up a Nevada? 3:01:33.440 --> 3:01:35.800 What do those pieces look like? Yeah? And I think 3:01:35.840 --> 3:01:39.720 this also goes to the messaging and reality, Like we 3:01:40.240 --> 3:01:44.520 focus so much on the way that candidates are messaging 3:01:44.680 --> 3:01:48.440 what Democrats are talking about, but that's only a small 3:01:48.480 --> 3:01:51.360 amount of the input that voters have. You know, very true, 3:01:51.520 --> 3:01:54.440 voters are filling up their gas tank. Voters are also 3:01:54.560 --> 3:01:58.400 talking to people all the time about abortion rights, but 3:01:58.840 --> 3:02:02.199 things that are in the new education about education, about 3:02:02.200 --> 3:02:04.480 the school, the school's question. We'll see how some of 3:02:04.520 --> 3:02:07.600 that shakes out, but it you know, it comes down 3:02:07.640 --> 3:02:10.800 to sailings. Like when people say that the most important 3:02:10.800 --> 3:02:12.680 issue to them is inflation, does that mean that that's 3:02:12.680 --> 3:02:15.440 what they're hearing in the news. But if somebody is 3:02:15.440 --> 3:02:18.480 saying the most important issue to me is abortion and 3:02:18.800 --> 3:02:21.080 it's overwhelmingly for Democrats, that mean these are people who 3:02:21.120 --> 3:02:23.560 are coming out and voting who otherwise wouldn't have voted. 3:02:23.680 --> 3:02:26.480 And it doesn't actually matter whether Democrats had message on it, 3:02:26.600 --> 3:02:30.040 Like for people in Pennsylvania the last month or so, 3:02:30.640 --> 3:02:33.279 I don't understand how a candidate could break through on anything. 3:02:33.720 --> 3:02:37.240 Like every time you turn on the TV, it's eight 3:02:37.320 --> 3:02:39.080 ads and then it's back to the show you're watching, 3:02:39.680 --> 3:02:43.200 and then the Phillies lose, the Phillies lose, altho all 3:02:43.240 --> 3:02:46.440 the Eagles are still undefeated, and you're like, you, what 3:02:46.480 --> 3:02:48.800 am I even taking from this? And Yeah, well I 3:02:48.879 --> 3:02:51.320 was gonna say. Crystal's point about the Nate Cone data 3:02:51.480 --> 3:02:53.760 is I think really really important because a lot of 3:02:53.840 --> 3:02:56.000 what we pulled here with our elements, it's looking at 3:02:56.000 --> 3:02:59.199 the predictions from five point thirty eight and RCP and Republicans. 3:02:59.520 --> 3:03:01.280 Just as at last couple of days, I can tell 3:03:01.280 --> 3:03:03.600 you talking to conservative sources, Sager, you may have had 3:03:03.800 --> 3:03:08.560 a similar experience. They were actually expecting that the polls 3:03:08.600 --> 3:03:13.720 were still under I was estimated Republicans. So like when 3:03:13.720 --> 3:03:16.480 you're looking at Oregon, when you're looking at New York. 3:03:16.760 --> 3:03:19.680 So if the polls are underestimating Lee Zelden, is it 3:03:19.800 --> 3:03:22.960 possible that Zelden wins by two to three percent? That's 3:03:23.000 --> 3:03:26.240 what Republicans were going in tonight to tonight thinking and 3:03:26.360 --> 3:03:28.600 a lot of people on the right were building into 3:03:28.680 --> 3:03:31.960 these numbers, perhaps a couple two three extra points for 3:03:32.040 --> 3:03:34.840 Republicans in places like deep blue places like New York 3:03:34.879 --> 3:03:37.800 and Oregon. And if that doesn't pan out, if Democrats 3:03:37.879 --> 3:03:42.360 actually overperform the polls, that is a very big story. 3:03:42.480 --> 3:03:45.040 I think you're right, yes, well, and we know in 3:03:45.160 --> 3:03:48.400 one state they did, and that's New Hampshire. New Hampshire 3:03:48.680 --> 3:03:50.760 is the state that where we probably have the clearest 3:03:50.800 --> 3:03:53.680 picture right now because they have limited early vote, because 3:03:53.840 --> 3:03:55.920 most of the vote it is in because Maggie Hassen 3:03:56.040 --> 3:03:59.920 is like consistently outperforming Biden in county after county after county. 3:04:00.640 --> 3:04:03.760 Biden won New Hampshire by seven points. Right, the polls 3:04:03.840 --> 3:04:06.720 did not have Maggie Hassen up by anywhere near seven points. 3:04:06.760 --> 3:04:09.040 Even the most optimistic polls for her down the stretch 3:04:09.080 --> 3:04:11.959 hot are up by like two. So at least when 3:04:12.000 --> 3:04:15.640 you have a significantly college educated electorate, which is what 3:04:15.800 --> 3:04:18.920 you have disproportionately in the state of New Hampshire, you 3:04:19.120 --> 3:04:23.040 had a dynamic of them actually underestimating Democratic support. We 3:04:23.080 --> 3:04:25.640 can show that number twelve guys, if you can please 3:04:26.040 --> 3:04:28.680 that's our New Hampshire element, just to give everybody some insight. 3:04:28.760 --> 3:04:30.279 This is gonna be a fun game in the future, 3:04:30.400 --> 3:04:33.360 just looking at the exact call so you can see there, 3:04:33.440 --> 3:04:36.760 which is that now the final RCP average had Maggie 3:04:36.800 --> 3:04:39.800 Hassen only up by one point, and while the five 3:04:39.920 --> 3:04:42.520 thirty eight average did have her in seventy two in 3:04:42.640 --> 3:04:45.400 a twenty eight percent, they also still pointed to a 3:04:45.520 --> 3:04:48.360 much narrower race. And that doesn't yet seem so like 3:04:48.760 --> 3:04:50.920 right now the data that we have is forty one 3:04:51.000 --> 3:04:54.000 percent of the vote is in in New Hampshire, fifty 3:04:54.080 --> 3:04:57.880 six percent Maggie Hassen, forty two percent Bolda. Now, some 3:04:58.040 --> 3:05:00.480 of that could come back, you know for Bolda as 3:05:00.640 --> 3:05:02.920 some of the later I think more rural areas are 3:05:02.959 --> 3:05:05.440 the ones where he's expected to have support. But the 3:05:05.640 --> 3:05:09.160 blowout scenario, which is what I'll be honest, I really 3:05:09.240 --> 3:05:11.879 thought that it was a very distinct possibility that Michael 3:05:11.920 --> 3:05:15.360 Ben not Michael Bennett, losing necessarily. But I didn't think 3:05:15.360 --> 3:05:17.200 they would just call it for him, you know, like 3:05:17.800 --> 3:05:22.520 that Patty Murray like sweating it right exactly. I thought 3:05:22.600 --> 3:05:25.360 she was going on. I thought she would believe that 3:05:25.400 --> 3:05:26.920 was closed. Yeah, I thought she would win, but you 3:05:26.959 --> 3:05:29.200 win by to remember who's the new Jersey governor. What 3:05:29.280 --> 3:05:31.160 was the guy's name, Phil Murphy? Yeah, and he won 3:05:31.240 --> 3:05:34.640 by three everyone point. I thinks he's going to run 3:05:34.680 --> 3:05:39.920 for Presidentemross elimination. Yeah, I mean, I I do think 3:05:40.240 --> 3:05:44.520 like the reason that this election midterm, I think we 3:05:44.600 --> 3:05:47.879 can already say it is definitely not a schlacking. It's 3:05:48.040 --> 3:05:51.760 definitely different than what normally happens when you have a 3:05:51.840 --> 3:05:54.360 party in power. And I really attribute that to the 3:05:54.440 --> 3:05:58.720 fact that Democrats were just as energized as Republicans normally. 3:05:58.879 --> 3:06:01.400 The reason you have the show lacking is because the 3:06:01.520 --> 3:06:04.800 party in powers voters are sort of dispirited, hasn't really 3:06:04.840 --> 3:06:07.560 been everything that they expected. They're kind of disappointed. They 3:06:07.560 --> 3:06:09.800 don't really love these people anymore, and they're like, fuck it, 3:06:09.879 --> 3:06:12.520 I'm just staying home this time. And I do think 3:06:12.600 --> 3:06:14.640 that this is, you know, this is a Trump effect. 3:06:15.480 --> 3:06:19.160 There is a sense of existential dread and doom and 3:06:19.400 --> 3:06:22.240 energy and whatever going on with the Democratic base. The 3:06:22.320 --> 3:06:25.480 abortion ruling certainly fuels that, and so that's causing them 3:06:25.560 --> 3:06:27.800 to turn up out at the polls in the same 3:06:28.000 --> 3:06:31.720 margins of you know, enthusiasm as Republicans, And I do 3:06:31.840 --> 3:06:35.439 think that that's why this election looks different than midterms 3:06:36.040 --> 3:06:39.120 when you have the party in power, and you have 3:06:39.240 --> 3:06:41.680 a bad economy, and you have inflation, and you have 3:06:41.800 --> 3:06:45.920 a low presidential approverating all those things, and yet Democrats 3:06:46.040 --> 3:06:48.840 might still hold on to the Senate. Like that is 3:06:48.959 --> 3:06:51.320 really that's really different. I think that that's a big 3:06:51.400 --> 3:06:53.520 part of it. But also the and and also the 3:06:53.640 --> 3:06:58.800 changing Democratic coalition changes that. So in the eighties and nineties, sixties, 3:06:58.840 --> 3:07:01.720 seventy eighty ninety, when Democrats are still like, if you're 3:07:01.720 --> 3:07:04.240 a working class voter, you're a Democrat first, and if 3:07:04.240 --> 3:07:06.840 you're not, then you have questions to ans for like, yeah, 3:07:07.000 --> 3:07:10.400 why are you voting for these Nelson Rockefet's Republicans, And 3:07:10.760 --> 3:07:13.520 those types of voters show up in presidential years and 3:07:13.560 --> 3:07:16.400 then drop off in midterms. Now they have a much 3:07:16.440 --> 3:07:19.959 more educated electorate that is showing up in primaries. They're 3:07:20.040 --> 3:07:22.120 voting for city council, they're voting for school board, and 3:07:22.160 --> 3:07:25.920 they're definitely showing up for midterms. So what's interesting though, 3:07:26.000 --> 3:07:29.320 and this is the one sort of like Devil's Advocate 3:07:29.440 --> 3:07:32.320 argument that I'll continue to make, is that those Florida 3:07:32.400 --> 3:07:34.640 numbers are really interesting to me because that's a blowout 3:07:34.680 --> 3:07:37.560 for Maria Alviro Salazard to win that district, which was 3:07:37.600 --> 3:07:40.560 Dona Shalala's district. It was shifted a little bit to 3:07:40.640 --> 3:07:43.320 favorite Republicans. I think it went from plus four Dems 3:07:43.360 --> 3:07:45.480 to plus one Dems according to a five point thirty eight, 3:07:45.800 --> 3:07:48.400 but for a double digit win for Republican there, I 3:07:48.480 --> 3:07:50.600 think that's really interesting. And I just don't think we 3:07:50.720 --> 3:07:52.680 know what's going to happen in Texas yet. And so 3:07:52.959 --> 3:07:56.200 just in terms of that sort of broader realignment question, 3:07:56.320 --> 3:07:59.280 whether there is more evidence of a pivot, I do 3:07:59.440 --> 3:08:02.039 think it's we still the jury is kind of out 3:08:02.120 --> 3:08:04.200 on that question. Well, we may still, I mean, we 3:08:04.320 --> 3:08:08.560 may still have a real full on realignment, but also 3:08:08.680 --> 3:08:11.400 have Democrats do better than expect because of the point 3:08:11.480 --> 3:08:14.120 Ryan is making of, like, you know, Democrats used to 3:08:14.200 --> 3:08:16.240 really be envious of the fact that like all these 3:08:16.360 --> 3:08:19.040 like affluent white Republicans would show up every brick in 3:08:19.120 --> 3:08:23.800 election no matter what. Now those people are Democrats. Yeah, 3:08:23.920 --> 3:08:25.800 so that does kind of help you out a midterm 3:08:25.840 --> 3:08:28.360 election ultimately, doesn't it. I also wonder let's put the 3:08:28.400 --> 3:08:29.959 House aside and let's look at the Senate. I mean, 3:08:30.000 --> 3:08:32.720 I'm looking at the New York Times probability right now 3:08:32.959 --> 3:08:35.880 has a fifty three percent chance that herschel Walker does win. 3:08:36.320 --> 3:08:39.600 Their quote unquote Needle has a tassa has it currently 3:08:39.720 --> 3:08:43.440 leaning towards fifty one seats for the Republicans. So look, 3:08:43.560 --> 3:08:46.080 I think it's still within the realm of possibility. As 3:08:46.160 --> 3:08:49.120 you said, Crystal Fetterman may be out running Biden, but 3:08:49.280 --> 3:08:52.560 doctor oz is very likely to outrun Trump in the 3:08:52.640 --> 3:08:55.800 mainline suburbs of Philadelphia, so that could equal out. We 3:08:55.879 --> 3:08:58.840 could still have a scenario where doctor oz ekes out 3:08:58.959 --> 3:09:02.360 one point one percent of victory. So on an absolute 3:09:02.480 --> 3:09:05.080 numbers basis, that's a bad Canada, right, And we could 3:09:05.080 --> 3:09:07.120 still end up in an absolute numbers basis with like 3:09:07.240 --> 3:09:10.320 fifty three Republican seats, right like lake Master. We you 3:09:10.400 --> 3:09:12.560 know Arizona. I don't have a scrap of data in 3:09:12.600 --> 3:09:15.320 front of me yet out of Arizona, no idea. What's 3:09:15.360 --> 3:09:17.600 going to happen Nevada. I mean, we still got an 3:09:17.640 --> 3:09:20.400 hour until or forty five minutes right now until Nevada 3:09:20.520 --> 3:09:22.640 polls go ahead and close. So I think you know, 3:09:22.720 --> 3:09:24.640 when Chrystal and I wake up tomorrow morning and we 3:09:24.760 --> 3:09:27.440 have to do the show seven am. Whenever we're reporting 3:09:27.440 --> 3:09:31.600 for everybody, it's gonna be fun. Oh well, so badly. Well, Well, 3:09:31.720 --> 3:09:34.920 when we're all up here at seven, I will at 3:09:35.000 --> 3:09:37.840 least at least standard at least Standard time is back, 3:09:37.920 --> 3:09:40.560 and at least the sun will be up at that time. 3:09:41.200 --> 3:09:42.640 It could be a totally different night. We could be 3:09:42.640 --> 3:09:45.840 talk about your still about fifty three Republicans, and for Republicans, 3:09:46.040 --> 3:09:48.680 for Republicans who are disappointed that they are not yet 3:09:48.800 --> 3:09:50.920 looking at a bigger night, one thing they can remember 3:09:51.040 --> 3:09:53.240 is that if you look at two thousand and eight, 3:09:53.480 --> 3:09:55.720 when Obama came in, he had a bunch of coattails. 3:09:56.160 --> 3:09:59.760 He swept in something like thirteen to fifteen House Democrats. 3:09:59.760 --> 3:10:04.960 Remember with him, Biden had reverse coattails. Biden lost what 3:10:05.160 --> 3:10:08.040 ten to fifteen I think about fourteen, right, thank you, 3:10:08.280 --> 3:10:12.720 And so he baked in a bunch of losses. Biden 3:10:13.040 --> 3:10:15.960 has been so good at losing that there's less losing 3:10:16.040 --> 3:10:17.440 for him to do this time around. So if you 3:10:17.520 --> 3:10:21.880 imagine him losing all of those seats right those fifteen 3:10:22.000 --> 3:10:24.520 or so that he lost already, and then you add 3:10:24.560 --> 3:10:27.320 them to the ones he's losing tonight, then you've got 3:10:27.360 --> 3:10:30.640 a really big number, which if you're Obama, you kind 3:10:30.680 --> 3:10:33.400 of He wouldn't say that's publicly, but privately, I'm sure 3:10:33.440 --> 3:10:36.600 he's thinking, Okay, yeah, the only reason your wipeout isn't 3:10:36.640 --> 3:10:39.600 worse is that you already got half wiped out when 3:10:39.640 --> 3:10:42.000 you swept your way in. That's not a bad I've 3:10:42.080 --> 3:10:46.760 got some Arizona numbers. Ah, some data, some data from Arizona, 3:10:47.080 --> 3:10:51.400 and this is forty percent. Now caveats, we don't know 3:10:51.600 --> 3:10:54.879 early vote they have, where they're from, all that stuff. Okay, 3:10:55.680 --> 3:11:00.240 Mark Kelly is from Venezuela. No no, no, no, bam boo, 3:11:00.320 --> 3:11:06.600 balance straight into the mules. The mules brought him in. 3:11:06.720 --> 3:11:09.960 I'm typing the mill right now. Mark Kelly fifty tixo 3:11:10.000 --> 3:11:12.960 point four percent and Blake Masters at forty one point 3:11:13.040 --> 3:11:16.800 three percent. And the New York Times has this now 3:11:17.440 --> 3:11:21.080 based on what's in as lean Democrats, so they are 3:11:21.160 --> 3:11:23.320 seeing this based on what's I mean, forty percent is 3:11:23.400 --> 3:11:25.080 not nothing. Forty percent You can look at it and 3:11:25.200 --> 3:11:26.600 start to get a gauge of where it's going to go. 3:11:27.560 --> 3:11:30.800 They are feeling like Democrats are doing well there, so far. 3:11:31.040 --> 3:11:34.320 What about Maricopa County, So I think that's obviously the one. Okay, 3:11:34.320 --> 3:11:35.920 So we've got fifty three percent of the vote in 3:11:36.040 --> 3:11:39.400 from Maricopa County. Mark Kelly is leading there at fifty 3:11:39.480 --> 3:11:41.400 nine percent. If it does get close. A lot of 3:11:41.440 --> 3:11:44.200 the stuff that we talked about that is going very 3:11:44.280 --> 3:11:48.040 viral amongst MAGA folks about the closure about the oh 3:11:48.160 --> 3:11:51.119 and I should update everybody that lawsuit that I talked 3:11:51.120 --> 3:11:54.440 about that the Republicans filed that was denied by a judge, 3:11:54.600 --> 3:11:58.120 so the extra vote time they were asking for was 3:11:58.200 --> 3:12:00.640 not granted. So of course we can also see a 3:12:00.680 --> 3:12:03.560 potential fight in the future there. So it's interesting, I 3:12:03.640 --> 3:12:05.560 mean to have forty one percent of the vote in 3:12:06.280 --> 3:12:08.720 in terms of where else I was also looking, you know, 3:12:08.840 --> 3:12:11.280 we almost overlooked this one, but you got twenty two 3:12:11.320 --> 3:12:14.119 percent of the vote in and Gretschen Whitmer actually looks 3:12:14.160 --> 3:12:18.039 to be doing quite well. That's another that's another huge 3:12:18.520 --> 3:12:22.320 and the huge abortion referendum is it's currently up fourteen points. 3:12:22.480 --> 3:12:25.280 So I think the abortion referendum has hoattails for wit 3:12:25.560 --> 3:12:28.959 Here's here's a significant one. This is per Decision Desk 3:12:29.520 --> 3:12:32.080 Josh Shapiro wins Pennsylvania. Yeah, that's a big one. And 3:12:32.120 --> 3:12:35.000 here's what is the big one they promises when that results, 3:12:35.040 --> 3:12:37.880 and then they're like, oh, Joshua, well, well we should 3:12:37.879 --> 3:12:40.840 get the caveat that is decision desk, right, it's there. 3:12:41.040 --> 3:12:44.080 I've actually said this, Arkle. They are very premature, in 3:12:44.200 --> 3:12:47.120 my opinion, in some of their calls. So we'll see. 3:12:47.840 --> 3:12:50.360 But if even though you know it is still a 3:12:50.440 --> 3:12:53.160 major organization, they're a bit trigger. Happened for them to 3:12:53.240 --> 3:12:56.680 say that that is significant early on in the process 3:12:56.760 --> 3:12:59.840 for Shapiro to be called. And that is significant not 3:13:00.160 --> 3:13:02.480 just because you know, we're Pennsylvania's trending and is it 3:13:02.600 --> 3:13:04.840 the red okay wave of the red puddle or the 3:13:04.879 --> 3:13:09.959 red whatever, but also because Mastriano was genuine like election 3:13:10.240 --> 3:13:14.720 psycho and he was in Pennsylvania. This something we covered 3:13:14.800 --> 3:13:18.800 a lot on breaking points. You as governor appoint the 3:13:18.840 --> 3:13:21.360 secretary of state and this is a dude who wasn't 3:13:21.480 --> 3:13:24.240 isn't just like echoing stop the steel stuff. He was 3:13:24.440 --> 3:13:27.560 there on January sixth. He was part of the boss 3:13:27.640 --> 3:13:30.840 or something. He came, he came the capital. He came. 3:13:30.959 --> 3:13:33.240 He did not to the capital. He came up in 3:13:33.360 --> 3:13:37.080 the like January sixth Committee testimony thing, because he was 3:13:37.120 --> 3:13:40.320 so integral a trump'shule, fake elector plot in the state, 3:13:40.720 --> 3:13:43.640 Like this guy was in it in like true believer 3:13:43.920 --> 3:13:46.320 all the way in. And so you know, this is 3:13:46.400 --> 3:13:50.120 a real This is a real rebuke of the Trump 3:13:50.280 --> 3:13:54.199 stopped the steal candidates. I think Shapiro also deserves credit. Actually, 3:13:54.280 --> 3:13:57.200 David Strode, our partners over at the lever Sorrotas, known 3:13:57.240 --> 3:13:59.920 Shapiro for a while and he went and went to 3:14:00.040 --> 3:14:02.720 school together. Yeah, right, and he went and actually followed 3:14:02.720 --> 3:14:05.680 Shapiro on the campaign trail, and he has done He 3:14:05.720 --> 3:14:09.360 has established a real statewide profile for himself to going 3:14:09.400 --> 3:14:13.280 after big pharma, actually taking on the fracking companies, taking 3:14:13.360 --> 3:14:16.039 on the Catholic Church. And so I don't think it's 3:14:16.320 --> 3:14:19.160 just a rebuke of Masteriano. I think it also is 3:14:19.160 --> 3:14:22.560 an affirmative, you know, vote in favor of Joshapiro here, 3:14:22.600 --> 3:14:25.080 who seems to have impressed Pennsylvania voters. I think that's 3:14:25.200 --> 3:14:28.040 complete like that. For that to come in this early 3:14:28.800 --> 3:14:30.680 is a really big deal, and to look like it 3:14:30.760 --> 3:14:32.920 does this early is a really big deal in terms 3:14:32.959 --> 3:14:36.160 of whether this will be a tsunami or a wave. 3:14:36.240 --> 3:14:38.880 And another question of that is in your district that 3:14:38.920 --> 3:14:41.280 you were talking about earlier, Crystal, which is Virginia seven. 3:14:41.800 --> 3:14:47.720 It looks like Abigail Spanberger has bounced back and then 3:14:47.959 --> 3:14:50.960 just called it. She held on her. That is a 3:14:51.040 --> 3:14:57.400 really big deal because before we came up, he knows 3:14:57.520 --> 3:15:03.480 a thing or two. So when I was before we 3:15:03.560 --> 3:15:06.200 came into the studio, I had Fox News on, and 3:15:06.360 --> 3:15:09.119 I forget who said this. On Fox. They said, if 3:15:09.160 --> 3:15:12.080 you're looking at just a red wave, what you would 3:15:12.120 --> 3:15:16.760 expect is for yesly Vega to win Virginia seven. They 3:15:16.800 --> 3:15:19.200 were looking at other Virginia districts and saying, if you're 3:15:19.200 --> 3:15:21.920 expecting a tsunami, you would I think it was like 3:15:22.000 --> 3:15:25.520 Virginia ten. It was Jennifer Wexton. It was Wexton. That's right, 3:15:25.840 --> 3:15:29.320 you would expect that you can expect the tsunami. If 3:15:29.360 --> 3:15:34.200 Wexton loses, Abigail Spamburger is not even gonna lose. So again, 3:15:34.360 --> 3:15:36.680 I think what we're looking at here as this number, 3:15:36.760 --> 3:15:39.880 these numbers sort of come out, is a kind of 3:15:40.040 --> 3:15:45.119 targeted tsunami in certain places like in Florida, which is insane. Again, 3:15:45.280 --> 3:15:49.199 like double digit win in in Florida twenty seven insane 3:15:49.959 --> 3:15:53.280 a loss for a Republican I think in Virginia seven, 3:15:53.440 --> 3:15:55.520 which I know it was redrawn, but that was Dave 3:15:55.600 --> 3:15:59.800 Bratt's district in Eric Canter's district, right, Yes, this is 3:16:00.080 --> 3:16:03.960 it's it's almost unrecognizable though, because yeah, it's almost completely 3:16:04.000 --> 3:16:07.640 different district. So I mean it's close, Yeah, it's it's 3:16:08.280 --> 3:16:11.120 it is a swing district. Biden did win it, so 3:16:11.600 --> 3:16:14.760 you know there's another seat in Virginia. There were three 3:16:14.920 --> 3:16:18.360 Virginia and Lauria who were basically on the rocks. The 3:16:18.480 --> 3:16:23.080 last one of the lady Lauria, she lost according to CNN, 3:16:23.360 --> 3:16:27.040 she has lost. Now that is a Virginia beach district, 3:16:27.200 --> 3:16:30.040 and it's long been. It's gone back and forth. You 3:16:30.520 --> 3:16:34.920 remember that dude, Scott Rigel, he held that seat. Glenn nine. 3:16:34.959 --> 3:16:37.000 I don't remember Glenn and I he's like this blue 3:16:37.080 --> 3:16:39.680 dog Democrat he held that seat. So anyway, that's one 3:16:39.720 --> 3:16:41.680 that really goes back and forth. Now, if you were 3:16:41.760 --> 3:16:45.360 really like, you know, the the Democratic like actually it's 3:16:45.400 --> 3:16:48.360 going to be a blue wave kind of person, you 3:16:48.400 --> 3:16:51.240 would expect them to hold on to this kind of 3:16:51.280 --> 3:16:53.800 a seat. So it does show you, you know, there 3:16:54.000 --> 3:16:56.760 is a shift towards Republicans, especially I think in the House, 3:16:56.800 --> 3:16:59.520 where the national trends in the national mood are basically 3:16:59.680 --> 3:17:02.480 the thing that determines. But yeah, the fact that Democrats 3:17:02.520 --> 3:17:05.600 held on to two out of those three seats shows 3:17:05.680 --> 3:17:09.080 you it's not quite what Republicans were ultimately hoping for. 3:17:09.120 --> 3:17:11.400 Here's an interesting data point, Nate Cone saying that the 3:17:11.520 --> 3:17:15.039 GOP chance of taking the House has stayed steady. However, 3:17:15.240 --> 3:17:18.520 Democrats now favor to actually hold two hundred and eight seats, 3:17:18.959 --> 3:17:21.200 up from the two oh three at the beginning, so 3:17:21.760 --> 3:17:25.200 you know, five point five more seats they're held on to. Ran. 3:17:25.280 --> 3:17:27.800 As you said, it doesn't necessarily matter in terms of 3:17:28.240 --> 3:17:32.480 the actual doings of the House whether you have two 3:17:32.800 --> 3:17:35.439 three or two o eight whenever you're in the minority. 3:17:35.720 --> 3:17:39.400 But that's an indication to us of the tsunami, the whatever, 3:17:39.640 --> 3:17:42.760 the rain, the wave, that we can try and look 3:17:42.800 --> 3:17:46.760 at same interesting new data actually out of Georgia they 3:17:46.800 --> 3:17:49.280 are back to a true toss up with some of 3:17:49.360 --> 3:17:52.560 the new county data that is coming out. Unfortunately, Georgia 3:17:52.680 --> 3:17:56.120 is still not No county is like near one hundred percent, 3:17:56.400 --> 3:17:59.360 So we don't really have all that good of an 3:17:59.400 --> 3:18:02.199 idea of what's going on, but we do have RUF. 3:18:02.240 --> 3:18:03.880 I think you're right. So we got eighty percent of 3:18:03.920 --> 3:18:06.160 the vote in right now, herschel Walker is at forty 3:18:06.240 --> 3:18:09.280 nine point three. Raphael Warnock is at forty eight point eight, 3:18:09.360 --> 3:18:12.760 So I mean it is Razor type, go ahead, right, Yeah. Oh, 3:18:12.800 --> 3:18:14.440 and I just wanted to talk about weed and psychedelics. 3:18:14.440 --> 3:18:19.400 So something else went on herschel Walker. Yeah, yeah, no, 3:18:19.800 --> 3:18:22.680 I actually think though, one important thing to keep in 3:18:22.720 --> 3:18:25.720 mind is that for Republicans, if herschel Walker doesn't go 3:18:25.800 --> 3:18:28.920 to a runoff, they were told, especially sort of the 3:18:29.080 --> 3:18:33.720 Maga sect, they were told that herschel Walker was an abomination, 3:18:34.040 --> 3:18:36.200 the worst possible candidate that they could put up. And 3:18:36.400 --> 3:18:39.920 herschel Walker from the sort of conventional wisdom standpoint of 3:18:40.040 --> 3:18:42.640 a non sort of typical voter, of a sort of 3:18:42.760 --> 3:18:45.960 DC journalist person, yeah, he's a terrible candidate by a 3:18:45.959 --> 3:18:48.560 lot of different metrics, especially if you're Democrat. Just a 3:18:48.640 --> 3:18:51.280 terrible candidate. But at the same time, if you're a 3:18:51.360 --> 3:18:54.080 Trump voter, you might look at herschel Walker and the 3:18:54.120 --> 3:18:56.440 way that he handled all of that oppo research that 3:18:56.560 --> 3:18:59.440 was dumped on him in October about potentially paying for abortions, 3:18:59.440 --> 3:19:02.320 which he didn't, which seems ridiculous to me that he's 3:19:02.360 --> 3:19:06.360 denying it. But anyway, the point is he handled that 3:19:06.480 --> 3:19:08.520 in a sort of Trumpian fashion, which just like this 3:19:08.680 --> 3:19:11.920 is baked in to the herschel Walker that people think 3:19:12.000 --> 3:19:14.440 they already know it doesn't bother him. It was this 3:19:14.600 --> 3:19:18.800 idea that like he was changed, and so saying what 3:19:18.879 --> 3:19:21.240 he did in the past only confirms his point that 3:19:21.320 --> 3:19:24.840 he changed. So there are some of these candidates. Herschel Walker, 3:19:25.000 --> 3:19:28.039 doctor Oz is one of them. I think Ron Johnson 3:19:28.120 --> 3:19:30.920 you can count as one of them, Blake Masters, Carrie Lake. 3:19:31.200 --> 3:19:33.160 We don't know what's going to happen with them. But 3:19:33.280 --> 3:19:36.560 what's going to happen in this internice fight among Republicans 3:19:36.879 --> 3:19:39.320 is some people are going to say if herschel Walker 3:19:39.360 --> 3:19:42.160 pulls it out, which we don't know, they're going to say, Look, 3:19:42.200 --> 3:19:45.800 Mitch McConnell, it was all fine, Well what was wrong 3:19:45.840 --> 3:19:48.680 with you? But Shapiro's early win is a good sign 3:19:48.760 --> 3:19:50.440 of to the contract. Well, you don't have to go 3:19:50.520 --> 3:19:55.040 to Pennsylvania. Look at Georgia, Brian Kemp and Roethensberger. They've 3:19:55.040 --> 3:19:57.200 already been declared to a great point, and it wasn't 3:19:57.200 --> 3:19:59.280 even close. I think it's a great in fact, Roethensberger, 3:19:59.480 --> 3:20:01.880 you know, one by an even larger margin than Kemp. 3:20:02.320 --> 3:20:04.760 So if you're really trying to make the apples tables 3:20:04.840 --> 3:20:09.840 comparison here, Herschel Walker is dramatically underperforming what his fellow 3:20:09.920 --> 3:20:13.600 Republicans are. And you know, obviously, like they did not 3:20:13.800 --> 3:20:17.480 go along with stop this deal, they very courageously really 3:20:18.200 --> 3:20:21.600 stood up directly to Donald Trump and voters clearly rewarding 3:20:21.680 --> 3:20:26.240 them for that independence ultimately, and Kemp survived his primary 3:20:26.320 --> 3:20:28.520 ultimately very easily too, which was kind of a surprise 3:20:28.600 --> 3:20:30.440 to me. Honestly, I think that's a good point. Also, 3:20:31.160 --> 3:20:33.240 they would counter and say nobody got more hate this 3:20:33.360 --> 3:20:35.800 cycle than Herschel That's just how they would counter it. 3:20:35.879 --> 3:20:38.040 But Ryan, what were you going to say if he 3:20:38.200 --> 3:20:41.199 does win and what Democrats ought to do is flip 3:20:41.280 --> 3:20:44.879 the script and just lobby him relentlessly. If you want 3:20:44.920 --> 3:20:48.520 to throw these complete wild cards into the Senate, then 3:20:48.560 --> 3:20:50.959 you know what, we're going to talk to this guy. 3:20:51.240 --> 3:20:55.440 That'd be interesting because if you talk if he's conservative, 3:20:55.640 --> 3:20:59.959 he's like got some lazy, generine sort of general view. 3:21:00.000 --> 3:21:02.560 It was like the world. But you sit him down 3:21:02.680 --> 3:21:06.040 before a vote with the person that can connect with him, 3:21:07.080 --> 3:21:09.680 you don't know how he's going to vote. So here's 3:21:09.720 --> 3:21:12.240 an interesting number. Seventy one percent of the vote is 3:21:12.280 --> 3:21:15.920 in in Lauren Bobert's district. CBS is flagging this as 3:21:15.959 --> 3:21:18.840 a potential upset for the Democrat Adam Frish, who is 3:21:18.920 --> 3:21:22.199 right now up at fifty two percent of the vote 3:21:22.240 --> 3:21:24.560 and Bobert is at forty seven point nine, so almost 3:21:24.600 --> 3:21:27.520 forty eight, she's down four points. Wow, with seventy one 3:21:27.560 --> 3:21:29.920 percent of this that would be big. Well, this gives 3:21:29.959 --> 3:21:34.120 me one in to my psychedelic point. At least Colorado 3:21:34.240 --> 3:21:38.800 has psychedelics on the ballot. Didn't Degreaver Denver already had 3:21:38.840 --> 3:21:42.400 psychedelics right right? Yeah, okay Colorado. Colorado has its statewide 3:21:42.400 --> 3:21:45.240 on the ballot. Okay, it's up right now by thirty 3:21:45.280 --> 3:21:48.840 three points. Holy do they have absolute blowout. Wow. I 3:21:48.879 --> 3:21:51.400 don't know what else Colorada has. That one's going to 3:21:51.440 --> 3:21:53.720 be on the ballot and Bobert goes down. That's a 3:21:53.840 --> 3:21:56.680 lot of that. One's going to bring the young people out, Yeah, 3:21:56.760 --> 3:22:01.520 and other tinerant voters who are like that's they are 3:22:01.560 --> 3:22:07.520 our block. Theineran. I saw them at Bataru. Yeah, and 3:22:07.600 --> 3:22:12.119 they're like, look, okay, wait, you're going to legalize mushrooms here, Okay, 3:22:12.160 --> 3:22:13.840 I'll come out and do the vote for that. Oh 3:22:13.920 --> 3:22:16.520 and Polbert's on the ballot too. Don't like her? Yeah, 3:22:16.560 --> 3:22:20.320 you know, Emily's not wrong. Like they've got seventy percent 3:22:20.360 --> 3:22:22.640 of the vote there in that district. Yeah, and she's 3:22:22.840 --> 3:22:26.480 you know, she's not up by all that much. Interesting, 3:22:26.600 --> 3:22:29.920 So checking in again, Gretchen Whitmer twenty five percent, she's 3:22:29.920 --> 3:22:32.240 at fifty three forty four. Also, you know, I have 3:22:32.360 --> 3:22:35.000 to come back to the Camp numbers. Brian Camp is 3:22:35.080 --> 3:22:38.760 destroying Stacy Abrams right at fifty four to forty five. 3:22:38.879 --> 3:22:40.960 I mean it is not even close, like a nine 3:22:41.000 --> 3:22:43.320 point margin with eighty one percent. Can I say, I 3:22:43.400 --> 3:22:46.480 think that's also worth when you're looking at Abrams. I 3:22:46.520 --> 3:22:51.080 think it's also worth looking at Christ and Demings, which 3:22:51.200 --> 3:22:54.000 got a ton of money. Yes they did so, Stacy Abrams, 3:22:54.280 --> 3:22:57.000 Charlie crist but especially also Val Demings and Stacy Abrams, 3:22:57.040 --> 3:22:59.680 like they got so much money and we already know 3:22:59.760 --> 3:23:02.520 that the getting trounced. Those are three money pits for Democrats. 3:23:02.720 --> 3:23:05.560 It's so weird right to look at, Like Florida is 3:23:05.760 --> 3:23:08.240 the biggest Republican story of the night. I mean, Desanta's 3:23:08.280 --> 3:23:11.640 has won now by twenty points, that's insane. I mean 3:23:11.760 --> 3:23:14.280 in modern Florida history, I can't even think of a 3:23:14.400 --> 3:23:17.040 single you know election to even come close to that. 3:23:17.160 --> 3:23:19.760 And the in terms of Marco Rubio and his victory 3:23:19.800 --> 3:23:23.000 there same thing. I mean, he's running ahead by sixteen points. 3:23:23.080 --> 3:23:24.800 Like if you look at the two of those. Yeah, 3:23:24.920 --> 3:23:27.959 val Deming spent seventy five million to lose by sixty 3:23:28.240 --> 3:23:30.440 to lose as if she was running in a deep 3:23:30.480 --> 3:23:33.160 red state like Southwell, she also did she do the 3:23:33.280 --> 3:23:38.360 like didn't she was a police officer y, Yeah, whe 3:23:38.600 --> 3:23:40.560 she did a kind of like I'm the sort of 3:23:40.600 --> 3:23:43.280 like tough on crime. Yeah. And she was a really 3:23:43.320 --> 3:23:46.760 good candidate And it's a shame that Democrats had to 3:23:46.800 --> 3:23:51.080 waste her in a like unwinnable rate. Like Beasley was 3:23:51.200 --> 3:23:54.560 not a very good candidate. Beasley was fine as far 3:23:54.600 --> 3:23:55.720 as you know. She's kind of a run of the 3:23:55.720 --> 3:23:58.760 mill Democrat, not objectionable to anybody, but like wasn't blowing 3:23:58.760 --> 3:24:02.000 anybody away, whereas Valdemi has had like some some real 3:24:02.040 --> 3:24:04.640 political skill that she brought to this race. It was 3:24:04.720 --> 3:24:07.640 like that that's going to move the needle maybe two points, 3:24:08.160 --> 3:24:11.440 right whereas and that might be that might be something 3:24:11.480 --> 3:24:14.800 that Beasley ends up like if Beasley runs in Florida, 3:24:15.200 --> 3:24:18.200 like maybe she loses five right. No, So we've we've 3:24:18.240 --> 3:24:20.760 been talking a lot about ticket splitters, which, you know, 3:24:21.000 --> 3:24:23.880 considering how hard and how partisan whatever, the fact that 3:24:24.040 --> 3:24:26.560 ticket splitters are obviously a really significant part of the 3:24:26.640 --> 3:24:29.600 story is quite interesting. And in Arizona you have this 3:24:29.720 --> 3:24:32.440 dynamic again, although maybe somewhat less extreme than we see 3:24:32.480 --> 3:24:35.240 in other places. Right now, Carrie Lake is running about 3:24:35.320 --> 3:24:39.840 four percent ahead of Blake Masters in Maricopa County. So 3:24:40.680 --> 3:24:42.880 that's tough. That's like, I guess if you do the 3:24:43.000 --> 3:24:45.600 election denial, but you're like good on TV. But here's 3:24:45.600 --> 3:24:48.120 the thing. Does anybody does anybody? She is good? Though? Look, 3:24:48.160 --> 3:24:51.240 I will say her career, that lady, that lady is 3:24:51.280 --> 3:24:53.800 a star. I honestly, and I say this with no pleasure. 3:24:53.840 --> 3:24:56.720 I think she will be probably she will be President's wedding. 3:24:57.000 --> 3:25:02.320 I don't win though, Yeah she doesn't, you know what 3:25:02.520 --> 3:25:04.720 it really I mean, I got to look at the 3:25:05.640 --> 3:25:08.360 projections with her. But it's definitely not clear she wins 3:25:08.400 --> 3:25:12.160 at this point. I mean, considering Kelly has a significant 3:25:12.240 --> 3:25:16.039 lead of her Masters enough for the New York Times 3:25:16.120 --> 3:25:18.440 to say the race is leaning toward Kelly. You know, 3:25:18.480 --> 3:25:20.400 at the very least, it's going to be cool. Think 3:25:20.400 --> 3:25:22.800 about it this way, What are the chances that Lake 3:25:22.920 --> 3:25:25.680 wins by four or more? Yeah, at this point, like, 3:25:25.840 --> 3:25:29.400 it's not even clearer she'll probably win, right, not totally 3:25:29.480 --> 3:25:33.520 clear that she'll win. But if she wins by less 3:25:33.520 --> 3:25:37.120 than four and Masters is running four points behind her, 3:25:37.360 --> 3:25:40.400 then he's toasted. Like he needs to close the gap. 3:25:40.440 --> 3:25:43.680 He needs to be running a little bit closer to Lake. 3:25:44.280 --> 3:25:47.520 Unless you think Lake's gonna win with this significant I'm 3:25:47.520 --> 3:25:49.880 not sure. Yeah, maybe you guys are right, because maybe 3:25:49.920 --> 3:25:52.199 somebody help me understand this, right, because you've got forty 3:25:52.440 --> 3:25:54.240 percent of the vote in and you've got Katie Hobbs 3:25:54.240 --> 3:25:56.600 at fifty five and Carrie Lake at forty five. But 3:25:56.720 --> 3:25:59.400 in the the Senate it's actually Blake Masters is running 3:25:59.440 --> 3:26:02.200 four points behind that, but Mark Kelly is retaining the 3:26:02.240 --> 3:26:04.400 same amount of votes. So does that mean that there's 3:26:04.440 --> 3:26:07.680 ticket splitting going on with Katie Hobbs or are we 3:26:07.720 --> 3:26:10.720 seeing a significant underperformance here with Kerry Lake, I mean 3:26:10.720 --> 3:26:13.080 the other Lake Kelly voters. So right now we've got 3:26:13.120 --> 3:26:15.600 Maricopa still only in fifty three percent. But as I 3:26:15.720 --> 3:26:17.720 understand it, that one is like that was the major 3:26:17.800 --> 3:26:19.920 bell weather right like where Biden I think he won 3:26:20.000 --> 3:26:21.840 by fifty one percent or something, so that was a 3:26:21.879 --> 3:26:24.720 big event. We still only got fifty three percent in there. 3:26:25.080 --> 3:26:27.800 There are two counties in Arizona where we don't have 3:26:27.959 --> 3:26:32.360 any vote in at all. I'm not unfamiliar enough with 3:26:32.520 --> 3:26:35.840 the geography of Arizona to say the rest of the counties, 3:26:35.959 --> 3:26:38.400 it does look like it's around like fifty to sixty 3:26:38.520 --> 3:26:41.200 something percent that are reporting in. So this could be 3:26:41.240 --> 3:26:43.640 premature in the way that we're talking here right emily 3:26:43.680 --> 3:26:46.360 about Arizona. Or are we seeing an underperformance like we 3:26:46.440 --> 3:26:48.120 are pretty much all across the board. Yeah, I mean, 3:26:48.120 --> 3:26:49.920 I do think it's early. But if we are seeing 3:26:50.240 --> 3:26:52.920 similar mpers to what we saw in Pennsylvania, if you're 3:26:52.920 --> 3:26:57.320 seeing similar numbers to what we saw with the Spanburger district, 3:26:57.879 --> 3:26:59.840 then yeah, we would expect this to be within a 3:27:00.040 --> 3:27:02.160 margin of like one or two percent for both carry 3:27:02.200 --> 3:27:04.920 Lake and Blake Masters. With masters running a little bit 3:27:04.959 --> 3:27:07.320 behind her probably. And one thing I wanted to toss 3:27:07.360 --> 3:27:10.160 to you guys was I pulled this quote from Dave 3:27:10.320 --> 3:27:13.560 Wasserman just yesterday. He said, encouraging news for Dems. In 3:27:13.680 --> 3:27:17.680 the final NBC News poll, voting enthusiasm gap closes from 3:27:17.800 --> 3:27:20.920 seventy eight percent to sixty nine percent pro R two. 3:27:21.200 --> 3:27:24.080 And this is like way counter narrative from what the 3:27:24.600 --> 3:27:26.960 legacy media was talking about the last few days to 3:27:27.320 --> 3:27:31.760 seventy three to seventy three percent. The enthusiasm gap closed. Yeah, 3:27:31.920 --> 3:27:33.960 in the days leading up to the election, with as 3:27:34.000 --> 3:27:37.560 you've been pointing out, crystal super high gas prices, a 3:27:37.840 --> 3:27:42.600 very unpopular president, the consumer price index, crazy high, real 3:27:42.680 --> 3:27:46.240 wages down, all of these different things, bad housing market. Now, 3:27:46.440 --> 3:27:50.000 Wasserman continued, biggest problem for Dems is still independence. Just 3:27:50.080 --> 3:27:52.400 twenty eight percent approve of Biden and sixty six to 3:27:52.480 --> 3:27:54.640 twenty eight percent say cost of living is more important 3:27:54.640 --> 3:27:58.240 than abortion. But when you have Democrats with that same 3:27:58.400 --> 3:28:01.400 level of enthusiasm and a five NBC newspots seventy three 3:28:01.440 --> 3:28:05.320 to seventy three percent, that is telling. That's very interesting. 3:28:05.480 --> 3:28:08.840 I do really feel like that's almost the key story 3:28:09.040 --> 3:28:12.280 of this election, as we see it so far, because again, 3:28:12.440 --> 3:28:18.080 if it was normal midterm election, party in power, economy 3:28:18.240 --> 3:28:21.720 is terrible, people are angry, not having residential preper rating 3:28:21.840 --> 3:28:24.240 really low, you would see much worse results than even 3:28:24.400 --> 3:28:27.560 what we know already. And so I really do think 3:28:27.680 --> 3:28:31.200 what is different is that you do have that democratic enthusiasm. 3:28:31.320 --> 3:28:33.280 Number I do think that is the story of what 3:28:33.440 --> 3:28:38.160 makes this election different than other midterm elections. And I 3:28:38.240 --> 3:28:40.720 think that comes from a couple places. I mean, number one, 3:28:41.000 --> 3:28:43.199 Donald Trump continues to be he's not on the ballad. 3:28:43.240 --> 3:28:45.920 He's a very motivating factor. It doesn't help that he's 3:28:45.959 --> 3:28:47.760 out there like maybe I'm better know it's something to 3:28:47.840 --> 3:28:50.360 run tonight or maybe next week or whatever. That's a 3:28:50.400 --> 3:28:52.440 good point. Yeah, I mean that you know, that was 3:28:52.480 --> 3:28:55.560 probably not helpful. So there's a sense of like the 3:28:55.600 --> 3:28:59.600 stakes are existential. And then I do also think that 3:29:00.240 --> 3:29:04.920 previously Biden's approval rating with Democrats was really not great, 3:29:05.280 --> 3:29:08.840 and once he did some stuff that they liked, his 3:29:08.959 --> 3:29:12.440 approval rating with Democrats went up really significantly and they 3:29:12.520 --> 3:29:14.879 sort of like rallied around him and that was responsible 3:29:14.920 --> 3:29:17.800 for his uptick in terms of the approval rating. And 3:29:17.920 --> 3:29:20.720 so I think it's the combination of like, actually, they're 3:29:20.800 --> 3:29:22.960 kind of good with some of the things Biden's been 3:29:23.000 --> 3:29:26.280 getting accomplished. They feel like he's been a decent president, 3:29:26.959 --> 3:29:29.160 even though they, you know, continue to tell polsters they'd 3:29:29.200 --> 3:29:31.119 rather have someone else next time around. But they're like, Okay, 3:29:31.160 --> 3:29:34.080 you're getting some stuff done, and we really don't want 3:29:34.200 --> 3:29:36.120 these people in there, and Donald Trump is ready to 3:29:36.200 --> 3:29:38.560 run for president, we got to go vote to me, 3:29:39.040 --> 3:29:42.320 those dynamics are what is making this result different from 3:29:42.360 --> 3:29:44.720 what the typical midterm result was. Here's an interesting call 3:29:44.840 --> 3:29:47.560 against from our president friends. The first the trigger happy, 3:29:47.640 --> 3:29:50.680 but still interesting. Nonetheless, they're calling the race for Maggie Hassen. 3:29:50.720 --> 3:29:53.879 They're saying that Maggie Hassen there Wuen's re election there. Also, 3:29:54.040 --> 3:29:58.600 here's a really interesting stat from Pennsylvania, and this gets 3:29:58.640 --> 3:30:01.879 to exactly what you were talking about. Out with outperforming Biden. 3:30:01.959 --> 3:30:05.600 He's outperforming it in all eight of those districts, Crystal 3:30:05.640 --> 3:30:08.760 that you would highlighted before, all eight of the Pennsylvania 3:30:08.800 --> 3:30:11.560 counties that fully have reported their vote, He's outperforming them 3:30:11.640 --> 3:30:14.400 in every single one of them, meaning that Oz will 3:30:14.640 --> 3:30:20.200 have to significantly outrun outrun Trump in the Philly suburbs. Well, 3:30:20.280 --> 3:30:23.520 now I think that's still possible, right, Yeah, I do 3:30:23.680 --> 3:30:26.440 think that is one Emily was talking about sort of 3:30:26.440 --> 3:30:29.400 the media narrative around herschel Walker. I mean, there is 3:30:29.520 --> 3:30:32.560 like an immediate narrative around John Fetterman two and the 3:30:32.680 --> 3:30:36.560 impact of his stroke, and you know, ultimately I highlighted 3:30:36.600 --> 3:30:40.320 this earlier, even after seeing the debate performance and that 3:30:40.520 --> 3:30:43.440 was very difficult for everybody to watch and understanding their 3:30:43.560 --> 3:30:46.640 you know, very significant lingering effects of the stroke. People 3:30:46.720 --> 3:30:49.840 still like John Fetterman a lot more than they like 3:30:49.959 --> 3:30:52.400 doctor Oz. And at the end of the day, I mean, 3:30:52.440 --> 3:30:55.120 if he pulls us out and he ultimately wins, I 3:30:55.200 --> 3:30:56.640 think that's going to be a lot of the reason 3:30:56.680 --> 3:31:01.000 why Just Sam, I was just texting with a Fetterman person. Yeah, 3:31:01.000 --> 3:31:04.080 how are they feeling? Said, Oz only got bad news 3:31:04.160 --> 3:31:06.320 so far. We got to make sure we hold our 3:31:06.360 --> 3:31:08.440 own in the suburbs, which goes to your point, that 3:31:08.600 --> 3:31:12.000 is a really big deal. Feels good knock on wood suburbs. 3:31:12.160 --> 3:31:15.920 Like if Oz. If Oz's hope is in the Philadelphia suburbs, 3:31:16.080 --> 3:31:18.520 that's not the hope He's not when he went into 3:31:18.600 --> 3:31:21.440 the But yeah, that's right. But in that sort of 3:31:22.520 --> 3:31:25.240 the feeling that Republicans had going into tonight that was 3:31:25.360 --> 3:31:27.400 the hope, because these are people that are voting on 3:31:27.480 --> 3:31:30.199 what they see as pocketbook issues, that are voting on inflation, 3:31:30.320 --> 3:31:33.280 that are voting on education. That actually was they were saying, 3:31:33.840 --> 3:31:35.920 we did it. We got those swing voters back in 3:31:36.000 --> 3:31:39.560 the suburbs at least for this cycle, because of both 3:31:39.920 --> 3:31:42.120 the economy and culture war issues. They really saw the 3:31:42.160 --> 3:31:43.920 culture were issues as a win for them on this 3:31:44.080 --> 3:31:46.800 point because of education. And I think, you know, that's 3:31:47.240 --> 3:31:50.440 clearly the case in Florida, and I think we're going 3:31:50.520 --> 3:31:52.560 to see a couple of pockets where that is true, 3:31:52.959 --> 3:31:55.560 but it's clearly not going to be true in different pockets, 3:31:56.080 --> 3:31:58.200 and that might be the real story going out of this. 3:31:58.320 --> 3:32:00.280 And a really counter narrative question that I want to 3:32:00.320 --> 3:32:05.480 talk to you guys is whether abortion and democracy very 3:32:05.600 --> 3:32:09.680 counter narrative. They're so helpful enough with a democratic base 3:32:10.240 --> 3:32:15.640 that they offset perhaps some Republican gains. I'm not saying 3:32:15.720 --> 3:32:19.000 that happened, but I'm saying, what if actually the numbers, 3:32:19.160 --> 3:32:21.440 the internal numbers that Democrats had when they were poll 3:32:21.520 --> 3:32:26.560 testing talking about democracy, waxing poetic about democracy and talking 3:32:26.640 --> 3:32:30.160 about Dobbs. What if that actually did help them in 3:32:30.240 --> 3:32:33.320 the Philly suburbs significantly. I think I think abortion and 3:32:33.400 --> 3:32:36.080 democracy are actually shorthands for what Crystal was saying earlier, 3:32:36.959 --> 3:32:40.160 which is that a okay, abortion really mattered and really 3:32:40.240 --> 3:32:43.120 joe people out the pulp, and democracy can can be 3:32:43.320 --> 3:32:45.160 considered to be a stand in for what you were 3:32:45.160 --> 3:32:48.280 saying about these people are crazy. Mastrian is totally crazy 3:32:48.840 --> 3:32:51.240 and this is not the country that we see ourselves 3:32:51.280 --> 3:32:53.560 as part abortion. It's even some of the stuff they're saying, 3:32:53.760 --> 3:32:56.440 cutting social Security, medicare like, all of this are like, 3:32:56.720 --> 3:32:59.360 I don't know. This was what came out in the 3:32:59.360 --> 3:33:02.760 New York Times in a college pole that I personally 3:33:02.920 --> 3:33:05.000 was very skeptical of. It was like, this looks very 3:33:05.080 --> 3:33:07.240 rosy for Democrats and they've been off before and I 3:33:07.280 --> 3:33:10.200 don't really think so. It very oft Yeah, one of 3:33:10.240 --> 3:33:14.560 their big takeaways was overall, people want Republicans to control 3:33:14.760 --> 3:33:18.160 the Senate, but they don't like the Republican candidates. They 3:33:18.240 --> 3:33:22.000 prefer the Democratic candidates in their state. And so I 3:33:22.120 --> 3:33:24.760 think that's, you know, part of what you are seeing 3:33:24.879 --> 3:33:28.240 ultimately play out here. I also remember soccer, We covered 3:33:28.280 --> 3:33:33.240 that Wall Street Journal poll that had white suburban women 3:33:34.040 --> 3:33:38.560 fleeing the Democratic Party and moving abruptly to the Republican Party. 3:33:39.000 --> 3:33:41.160 From the time of like Roe versus Wade and the 3:33:41.240 --> 3:33:45.240 maximums Democratic hopes to the close of the election, that 3:33:45.520 --> 3:33:48.520 I'm really starting to question because especially when you look 3:33:48.600 --> 3:33:51.600 at New Hampshire, right, this is a largess a lot 3:33:51.640 --> 3:33:53.240 of white people in that state, a lot of college 3:33:53.360 --> 3:33:55.440 educated people in that state, a lot of suburban, white 3:33:55.480 --> 3:33:58.640 college educated people in that state. Clearly did not have 3:33:58.879 --> 3:34:02.400 some big shift to the right over either pocketbook issues 3:34:02.600 --> 3:34:05.120 or any culture war issues that they were trying to 3:34:05.200 --> 3:34:07.240 run on. Either. Go ahead, I throw out a point 3:34:07.280 --> 3:34:08.600 that might be crazy, but you're not going to hear 3:34:08.640 --> 3:34:13.279 it anywhere else. All of the talk on the economy 3:34:13.360 --> 3:34:16.240 from the media has been about inflation. Yeah, inflation matters 3:34:16.280 --> 3:34:19.080 to people. Obviously, see gas pumped the groceries. Are not 3:34:19.240 --> 3:34:22.959 dismissing that we are in one of the best jobs 3:34:23.000 --> 3:34:26.320 economies and wage economy. Great point that we have been 3:34:26.400 --> 3:34:29.240 in in fifty years. Yeah, So what if And going 3:34:29.280 --> 3:34:31.480 back to the point I was making earlier about material 3:34:31.600 --> 3:34:35.720 reality versus messaging, what if in order for that economic 3:34:35.800 --> 3:34:38.879 messaging to really break through in a red wave type 3:34:38.920 --> 3:34:43.000 of way, you actually need significant jobleishness and unexployment. Yeah, 3:34:43.120 --> 3:34:45.400 you know what I was wondering about as possible, I 3:34:45.480 --> 3:34:47.600 have a very good point. I think it's an interesting point. 3:34:47.600 --> 3:34:50.240 I don't quite buy it because you have so consistently 3:34:50.280 --> 3:34:53.560 people saying, like, my finances suck, I've been hurt by it, 3:34:53.800 --> 3:34:57.280 my wages are going to inflation, gas prices are hurting me. 3:34:57.400 --> 3:35:00.120 So I think people are genuinely feeling the pain. What 3:35:00.200 --> 3:35:02.720 I wondered about, though, is like when you ask people 3:35:02.800 --> 3:35:06.000 what's causing inflation, they mostly don't say Joe Biden. They 3:35:06.040 --> 3:35:09.960 mostly are like corporate profits, supply chain issues, Ukraine war. 3:35:10.680 --> 3:35:13.520 So I wonder if there was, you know, an attempt 3:35:13.879 --> 3:35:16.680 to totally pin this like this is Joe Biden's fault 3:35:17.040 --> 3:35:19.240 that people just didn't really buy. They actually had kind 3:35:19.280 --> 3:35:23.080 of a more realistic view of like you know, I mean, 3:35:23.440 --> 3:35:26.640 there's inflation everywhere, and we had COVID and all these 3:35:26.720 --> 3:35:28.920 crazy all this crazy shit just happened. So I don't 3:35:28.959 --> 3:35:31.560 know that you could really totally lay the blame at 3:35:31.560 --> 3:35:34.960 their feet. And then I've been very critical of the 3:35:35.000 --> 3:35:38.240 democratic lack of messaging on the economy which I still 3:35:38.240 --> 3:35:41.960 think was a missed opportunity. But perhaps there's a critique 3:35:42.000 --> 3:35:46.000 of the Republican lack of messaging on what they would 3:35:46.120 --> 3:35:50.360 actually do economically, And it turns out it wasn't enough 3:35:50.680 --> 3:35:54.040 just to say like, inflation's bad, inflation's bad, inflation's bad, true, 3:35:54.400 --> 3:35:57.720 when people aren't really persuaded that that is in fact all. 3:35:57.800 --> 3:36:00.040 Joe Biden, that is a fantastic point. And look, I 3:36:00.080 --> 3:36:01.920 think there will be a lot of takeaways from the selection. 3:36:02.120 --> 3:36:04.760 I still think, you know, it could be premature all this. 3:36:04.959 --> 3:36:06.880 Of course, we can only work with the data that 3:36:07.000 --> 3:36:08.760 we have. Also, did want to give people an update, 3:36:08.800 --> 3:36:11.520 which is kind of funny. Maricopa County says they will 3:36:11.560 --> 3:36:14.240 expect to have all their ballots counted by Friday. So 3:36:14.800 --> 3:36:18.800 thank you. We really appreciate the work that you will 3:36:18.879 --> 3:36:21.200 put in over the last two years to make sure 3:36:21.240 --> 3:36:22.760 that we don't have to live through the hell of 3:36:22.840 --> 3:36:25.000 twenty They didn't have to spend the last two years. 3:36:25.160 --> 3:36:28.080 What are you people been doing for the last two years. 3:36:28.440 --> 3:36:31.560 What they've been doing is then recounting because like dodging 3:36:31.640 --> 3:36:36.240 death threats. Okay, Chrys, you've got a big one, yeah, Fetterman. 3:36:36.400 --> 3:36:39.760 According to The New York Times now has a seventy 3:36:39.840 --> 3:36:43.760 three percent. Wow, that's big. Yeah, it is bad. That's 3:36:43.760 --> 3:36:45.520 a big one. So doctor Oz won't have to move 3:36:45.560 --> 3:36:53.320 to Pennsylvania's got eight. When you're that rich, you don't 3:36:53.320 --> 3:36:57.120 live anywhere. You just simply float amongst which sounds kind 3:36:57.160 --> 3:36:59.879 of how many houses he on? He was like, well, 3:37:00.120 --> 3:37:03.880 legitimately I only have three or some. Are we talking 3:37:03.920 --> 3:37:05.880 about tax shelters? Are we talking about houses? Are we're 3:37:05.879 --> 3:37:09.320 talking about that? We're talking about safe houses? Well, okay, 3:37:09.400 --> 3:37:12.200 so a little And this is from Third Way. So 3:37:12.320 --> 3:37:15.840 Third Way to their survey, sent big centrist group and 3:37:16.160 --> 3:37:19.520 they had this this report where they said, to the 3:37:19.520 --> 3:37:21.840 conversation we were just having about the economy, they said 3:37:21.879 --> 3:37:24.520 a majority of voters fifty three percent also worry that 3:37:24.640 --> 3:37:28.440 continued Democratic control of Congress will make inflation worse. Well 3:37:28.520 --> 3:37:31.240 less than a quarter say the same about Republican control, 3:37:31.600 --> 3:37:34.240 and fifty six percent say Democrats are not focused enough 3:37:34.280 --> 3:37:36.680 on the economy. Will only thirty six percent say the 3:37:36.760 --> 3:37:42.120 same about their opponents. So fifty six percent actually, now 3:37:42.200 --> 3:37:45.720 that it comes up or I'm sorry, fifty three percent 3:37:45.800 --> 3:37:50.480 who are worried about whether a democratic control Congress will 3:37:50.480 --> 3:37:53.640 make inflation worse. And then you have according to Third Way, 3:37:53.680 --> 3:37:56.440 fifty four percent of people said that Democrats or that 3:37:56.520 --> 3:38:00.040 Republicans would do a better job handling the inflation and 3:38:00.120 --> 3:38:04.200 the economy. That number is not as high as maybe 3:38:04.240 --> 3:38:07.360 you would expect. Actually that that's actually kind of an 3:38:07.440 --> 3:38:11.520 indicator that in some of these regional blue areas, where 3:38:11.840 --> 3:38:14.600 there's a lot of built in trust and support and 3:38:14.720 --> 3:38:19.080 muscle memory infrastructure wise for Democrats, that we weren't going 3:38:19.120 --> 3:38:22.359 to see a tsunami. Yeah, that that actually in retrospect, 3:38:22.400 --> 3:38:25.320 when we're looking at Shapiro winning, when we're looking at 3:38:25.400 --> 3:38:28.120 Spanburger winning, those are indicators that were not in a 3:38:28.160 --> 3:38:31.600 tsunami period. That kind of gets to it, and maybe 3:38:31.680 --> 3:38:36.800 that in these these blue enclaves, people genuinely that forty 3:38:36.840 --> 3:38:39.920 four percent of voters trust Democrats more. It's very you know, 3:38:40.080 --> 3:38:42.480 like all of the data that is coming out is 3:38:42.680 --> 3:38:46.280 really just it shows us that trying to base our 3:38:46.400 --> 3:38:49.520 priors on twenty eighteen, because twenty eighteen, you know, the 3:38:49.560 --> 3:38:51.880 polls actually work quite off twenty twenty and twenty sixteen. 3:38:52.280 --> 3:38:54.440 Of course, it's difficult, and you know, we have no 3:38:54.600 --> 3:38:56.560 choice but to come really we have no choice but 3:38:56.680 --> 3:38:58.880 to come with the data and the biases of the 3:38:58.959 --> 3:39:02.120 modern history that we have. But in general, like what 3:39:02.280 --> 3:39:05.640 we're seeing here is that I'm even looking at you know, 3:39:05.800 --> 3:39:08.880 Dems might actually gain a seat. And this one district 3:39:08.959 --> 3:39:13.480 in Ohio in Cincinnati, like I'm looking at data that also, Yeah, 3:39:13.560 --> 3:39:15.800 there we go. In the Emily pulled this up here 3:39:15.840 --> 3:39:18.320 from Nate Silver. In house races as toss up or Lean, 3:39:18.400 --> 3:39:21.840 Democrats are leading in seventeen in Republicans only in seven. 3:39:21.959 --> 3:39:25.160 I mean, that is just simply not the scenario which 3:39:25.200 --> 3:39:27.200 I think a lot of us expected. I think the 3:39:27.280 --> 3:39:29.800 takeaways from this are going to be really interesting. With 3:39:29.920 --> 3:39:32.640 the seventy three percent there for John Fetterman, I mean 3:39:32.720 --> 3:39:36.360 that is just that is stunning. Like again, it's early. 3:39:36.640 --> 3:39:38.600 It will take at least a couple of days to 3:39:38.680 --> 3:39:42.600 actually find out what's going on Maricopa County. As I 3:39:42.680 --> 3:39:46.280 alluded to earlier, Georgia actually remains right now in a 3:39:46.360 --> 3:39:49.240 total toss up. They have seventy seven percent of the 3:39:49.360 --> 3:39:51.480 vote that is in there. But well here's another very 3:39:52.200 --> 3:39:55.400 in the pure toss ups, Democrats are ahead and eight 3:39:55.600 --> 3:39:59.480 and the GOP in two. A tsunami that's not what 3:39:59.560 --> 3:40:03.560 you're looking. Yeah, RSI Captor. People people wrote off Marcy Captor, 3:40:05.640 --> 3:40:09.920 but then the Republicans wrote off JR. Madjeuski, like he 3:40:10.040 --> 3:40:11.640 like made up a bunch of stuff. Well he was 3:40:11.680 --> 3:40:15.359 the guy who he got Trump's endorsement by mowing Trump's 3:40:15.400 --> 3:40:18.600 face into his lawn. Oh my god, Oh yeah, remember 3:40:18.640 --> 3:40:21.720 this guy, and he won the prime the Marshall, I thought, Marshall, 3:40:22.520 --> 3:40:27.080 maybe maybe he doesn't he doesn't have a lot, Marshall. 3:40:27.440 --> 3:40:30.400 Marshall's lawn service is that he goes and he has 3:40:30.440 --> 3:40:33.400 a Now he mows in the candidate of your choice 3:40:33.440 --> 3:40:37.080 to try to get the endorsement all of Brooklyn. So 3:40:37.200 --> 3:40:39.560 it looks like, so seventy nine percent in and she's 3:40:39.680 --> 3:40:42.400 up by eight eight percent. I mean, it looks like 3:40:42.480 --> 3:40:44.360 Captor is going to hold on. When I saw the 3:40:44.480 --> 3:40:49.840 first exit polls out that were like nationally motor set 3:40:49.879 --> 3:40:53.040 inflation was most important, like thirty four percent, but abortion 3:40:53.320 --> 3:40:55.520 was kind of close on its heels, I was like, 3:40:55.840 --> 3:40:58.280 that is a different picture than we've been getting from 3:40:58.400 --> 3:41:02.280 these holes leading leading up to now, it's been like 3:41:02.879 --> 3:41:06.960 overwhelmingly inflation, economy, etc. And abortion is like third on 3:41:07.040 --> 3:41:09.400 the list, not even second, and so when I saw that, 3:41:09.440 --> 3:41:12.920 I was like, hmm. Then we got the Pennsylvania exit 3:41:13.000 --> 3:41:16.280 polls and voters there actually put abortion as the number 3:41:16.400 --> 3:41:19.720 one issue, which in some ways makes sense. I mean, 3:41:19.800 --> 3:41:22.199 that might be another thing to parse in the days 3:41:22.240 --> 3:41:26.920 to come, is the states where voters really felt that 3:41:27.240 --> 3:41:30.120 abortion rights were truly at stake, and I would say 3:41:30.120 --> 3:41:34.240 Pennsylvania is one of them. Republicans have both the House 3:41:34.280 --> 3:41:38.119 and the Senate. If you end up with Mastriano as governor, 3:41:38.480 --> 3:41:41.920 they can do whatever they want. So they probably really 3:41:42.000 --> 3:41:44.880 really felt like, oh, this issue is I can actually 3:41:45.040 --> 3:41:47.640 see how my vote is going to change what ultimately 3:41:47.720 --> 3:41:50.960 happens here. So that might be another dynamic sort of 3:41:51.080 --> 3:41:54.800 underpinning what happens what happened here. Two key races on 3:41:55.000 --> 3:41:58.840 in Pennsylvania on that point. One is at Allentown Lehigh Valley, 3:41:59.040 --> 3:42:02.400 people were looking Exus wild as quite vulnerable. She's up 3:42:02.440 --> 3:42:05.760 by six points with sixty five percent in and then 3:42:06.480 --> 3:42:08.800 up in Scranton, which is a race that Emily and 3:42:08.879 --> 3:42:11.640 I covered on Counterpoints a couple of times. Matt Cartwright 3:42:11.720 --> 3:42:13.880 versus Jim Bognet. Matt cart Wright one of the few 3:42:14.080 --> 3:42:17.960 like actually populous Democrats up by ten points. Wow, with 3:42:18.080 --> 3:42:22.039 fifty nine percent in against Jim Bognet and it's not over, 3:42:22.200 --> 3:42:25.160 but they've got him leaning d here how many votes 3:42:25.200 --> 3:42:27.959 percentage of the votes? Fifty nine percent of the vote 3:42:27.959 --> 3:42:30.960 in and he's up by twenty thousand votes. So like, 3:42:31.080 --> 3:42:33.360 that's a hard I think I just realized this. But 3:42:33.440 --> 3:42:36.960 we're all from swing states. Ryan's Pa, Crystal's Virginia or 3:42:37.040 --> 3:42:40.600 Texas in Wisconsin, I don't know if Texas yet. Not yet, 3:42:41.879 --> 3:42:45.160 that's a percent Okay, it happened one time, it is 3:42:45.280 --> 3:42:48.440 like yeah, yeah, yeah the future one day swing say, 3:42:48.480 --> 3:42:54.080 I would have said Virginia is a blue state. That's true, Lily. Okay, 3:42:54.160 --> 3:42:58.280 So Crystal, you and I were doing breaking points tomorrow morning, 3:42:58.440 --> 3:43:00.320 we're going to do a hand off here in a 3:43:00.360 --> 3:43:01.920 little bit. What do you think we should sum up with. 3:43:02.360 --> 3:43:07.119 For let's be clear, it's ten pm on the East coast, 3:43:07.560 --> 3:43:10.640 so as of right now time at this moment, standard time, 3:43:10.680 --> 3:43:15.720 baby standard as hell. All. Yeah, I mean, here's what 3:43:15.840 --> 3:43:19.320 we know. The red tsunami did not happen. Yes, we 3:43:19.520 --> 3:43:24.320 know Republicans underperformed the fundamentals. There's just no doubt about that. 3:43:25.000 --> 3:43:28.520 And I do think it is a real indictment in 3:43:28.640 --> 3:43:32.560 a sense of the direction of the party, especially, I mean, 3:43:32.720 --> 3:43:34.800 abortion extremism has been there for a long time for 3:43:34.800 --> 3:43:37.840 the Republicans, but laying on top of that, like I'm 3:43:37.840 --> 3:43:39.840 not going to accept the results of the elections, I'm 3:43:39.840 --> 3:43:42.280 going to deny what happened in the last one. We're 3:43:42.320 --> 3:43:45.320 going to nominate the most fringe candidates we can possibly find. 3:43:45.760 --> 3:43:48.600 I don't think you can read these results, even if 3:43:48.800 --> 3:43:50.879 everything else sort of falls in the Republicans direction, they 3:43:50.959 --> 3:43:53.520 end up doing better than they've done up to this point. 3:43:53.920 --> 3:43:56.440 I don't think you can read these results given the 3:43:56.560 --> 3:44:00.240 fundamentals of this election, as anything but a rebuke the 3:44:00.680 --> 3:44:02.840 direction of the Republican Party. I think you were correct. 3:44:02.959 --> 3:44:05.200 I think my takeaway from this is that it will 3:44:05.240 --> 3:44:07.240 get I still don't think, by the way, that even 3:44:07.400 --> 3:44:09.280 if even if the Dams do hold the Senate, I 3:44:09.320 --> 3:44:12.520 don't think it will diminish Trump's chances of completely holding 3:44:12.560 --> 3:44:14.360 on to the GOP and all that. Oh yeah, I 3:44:14.520 --> 3:44:18.120 do think this will increase discussion around Trump's hold on 3:44:18.200 --> 3:44:22.200 the GOP, given that he pushed Walker, given that he 3:44:22.320 --> 3:44:25.680 pushed doctor Oz Blake Master. I don't know yet know 3:44:25.680 --> 3:44:27.640 what's going to happen with to Blake Masters, with Carry 3:44:27.720 --> 3:44:31.480 Lake or with Brian Sorry, with Dan Boldock in New Hampshire. 3:44:31.520 --> 3:44:33.720 I have no idea, so let's be clear on all 3:44:33.800 --> 3:44:36.480 of those races. But if some of those lose, or 3:44:36.560 --> 3:44:38.920 if the GOP only wins fifty one seats and they 3:44:38.959 --> 3:44:42.000 don't perform as well in the House, I do think 3:44:42.080 --> 3:44:44.880 it will give Trump is going to have a tougher 3:44:45.000 --> 3:44:48.400 time consolidating you or getting some of the GOP elite 3:44:48.480 --> 3:44:50.200 to bow to him. I'm not saying that this will 3:44:50.280 --> 3:44:53.880 lead in any way to sometis you know, Dysantis win 3:44:54.080 --> 3:44:55.840 or any of that, but it will be difficult to 3:44:56.240 --> 3:44:58.920 say this Republican governor who just blew out Florid would 3:44:58.920 --> 3:45:00.920 turn it into a red state and won by twenty 3:45:01.000 --> 3:45:03.800 points in a way that you never could have. He 3:45:03.840 --> 3:45:08.120 outperforms you dramatically, mean by what sixteen points? Sixteen points? Right? 3:45:08.160 --> 3:45:11.200 Trump won by three point five, Desanta's is now up 3:45:11.240 --> 3:45:14.520 by twenty, so seventeen points, they're sixteen five. Sorry for 3:45:15.240 --> 3:45:18.520 he's out there, Charlie. See this is the This is 3:45:18.560 --> 3:45:21.560 gonna be a tough one because Trump was planning Trump 3:45:21.680 --> 3:45:25.440 was planning on running for in twenty twenty four on 3:45:25.760 --> 3:45:28.800 the back of a red wave. On the expected red wave. Now, 3:45:28.959 --> 3:45:30.959 I still think he's going to run. I still think 3:45:31.000 --> 3:45:34.320 he will win the nomination, to be clear, but this 3:45:34.440 --> 3:45:37.360 will make it a little bit more interesting. We're gonna 3:45:37.360 --> 3:45:39.360 have to see like what the Kopia wants to come 3:45:39.440 --> 3:45:41.400 up with, and I think it will make Mitch McConnell 3:45:41.440 --> 3:45:44.040 and all of them be willing to buck him much 3:45:44.160 --> 3:45:46.600 longer than they would have in the event of a 3:45:46.680 --> 3:45:50.160 red wave scenario. That's a very interesting and good point 3:45:50.240 --> 3:45:52.400 because yeah, I mean, he's announcing next week and the 3:45:52.480 --> 3:45:56.320 thought was there's gonna be a red tsunami tsunamid nominee. 3:45:57.280 --> 3:46:01.760 Now you know it's been four hours, folks, there's going 3:46:01.840 --> 3:46:06.000 to be red tsunami. I'm gonna take credit. Now you're 3:46:06.000 --> 3:46:08.840 taking credit for the like twelve house seats that they 3:46:09.080 --> 3:46:11.840 pick up and the maybe they get to fifty to 3:46:11.879 --> 3:46:15.040 fifty again in the Senate. No, it's a less compelling picture. 3:46:15.080 --> 3:46:17.080 I think that's right. Okay, soccer, we do soccer. We 3:46:17.160 --> 3:46:19.160 do a gift bag for you. Oh what is it? 3:46:19.640 --> 3:46:22.400 What you sean? Patrick Maloney down by ten points? Oh? 3:46:23.600 --> 3:46:32.480 I like that, all right, that's an Ye, We're all true. Yeah, Okay, guys, 3:46:32.600 --> 3:46:34.880 everybody stick around. We're gonna play the ads again just 3:46:34.879 --> 3:46:36.680 so we can all switch things up. Emily and Ryan 3:46:36.720 --> 3:46:38.400 they're going to be here at the desk at least 3:46:38.480 --> 3:46:40.960 until midnight, longer if they need to. So we've got 3:46:41.000 --> 3:46:43.480 a lot of stuff for all of you for the team. 3:46:43.760 --> 3:46:46.039 Go ahead, I go. I just want to remind everybody 3:46:46.320 --> 3:46:49.160 that the reason that we have Emily and Ryan and 3:46:49.240 --> 3:46:51.960 that they are part of our beautiful family here is 3:46:52.080 --> 3:46:56.040 because of you guys. You made counterpoints possible, and I mean, 3:46:56.240 --> 3:46:58.360 you guys are doing such a phenomenal job. I'm a 3:46:58.440 --> 3:47:00.600 genuine fan of the show. I don't know sure episode. 3:47:00.760 --> 3:47:03.879 The response we've gotten from everybody has just been overwhelmingly positive. 3:47:04.200 --> 3:47:06.840 Premium subscribers are over the moon about it. So thank 3:47:06.879 --> 3:47:09.640 you to you guys for making that happen. Reminder, there's 3:47:09.640 --> 3:47:12.560 a discount link in the description at the top of 3:47:12.600 --> 3:47:14.560 the chat too, Yes, top to the chat in the 3:47:14.640 --> 3:47:16.800 description this stuff. Look, it costs a lot of money 3:47:17.080 --> 3:47:19.960 renting the studio. We've got the full crew, Ryan's chair, 3:47:20.200 --> 3:47:24.520 Ryan's hair. That's a day to day expense that we 3:47:24.640 --> 3:47:27.720 have just in order to keep it looking just like that, everybody, 3:47:27.879 --> 3:47:30.280 can you imagine? All right, So look here's the deal. 3:47:30.800 --> 3:47:34.480 Now the election, we're nearing the end for that, so 3:47:34.879 --> 3:47:36.600 we have to gear up also for twenty twenty four. 3:47:36.680 --> 3:47:38.840 So if you enjoyed this, we've got two years now 3:47:38.920 --> 3:47:40.840 to build so we can have even better election live 3:47:40.879 --> 3:47:43.320 stream in that year. So to all of you who 3:47:43.320 --> 3:47:45.720 have helped us, it is just so we can't thank 3:47:45.720 --> 3:47:48.080 you all enough in order to make this possible. It's 3:47:48.160 --> 3:47:49.680 very nice to be at this desk and not over 3:47:49.760 --> 3:47:52.760 at the hell desk for an election night, So you 3:47:52.840 --> 3:47:55.920 guys stick around. They will be here in our chairs 3:47:56.120 --> 3:47:58.200 in five minutes and then they're going to continue on 3:47:58.240 --> 3:48:00.480 through the night. Christal will be and I'll be back 3:48:00.560 --> 3:48:03.720 on for breaking points tomorrow morning for a full show. 3:48:03.879 --> 3:48:05.600 We'll try and get it out as early as possible, 3:48:05.760 --> 3:48:07.320 just because we know how we want to sleep with 3:48:07.400 --> 3:48:11.160 my keep on yes right there, pro maybe I won't shower, 3:48:11.320 --> 3:48:15.080 maybe we'll be able to tell with the uh with Okay, guys, 3:48:15.160 --> 3:48:16.880 we'll see you guys. You guys have been back in 3:48:17.000 --> 3:48:19.400 five stick around. Emily and Ryan are taking over the desk. 3:48:20.560 --> 3:48:23.720 Welcome back to the streams and saga's gone, so we 3:48:23.760 --> 3:48:26.000 can talk about drugs now gone, so we can talk 3:48:26.040 --> 3:48:28.760 about drugs. We're talking about in the sort of broader 3:48:28.840 --> 3:48:31.640 context about how this hasn't been necessarily a tsunami, that 3:48:31.920 --> 3:48:34.360 the evidence is not indicating what a lot of Republican 3:48:34.760 --> 3:48:37.200 and prognosticators sort of in the Beltway in general, thought 3:48:37.280 --> 3:48:39.480 might happen over the last few days, that this could 3:48:39.600 --> 3:48:42.800 be a trouncing of shellacking in the words of President Obama, 3:48:42.879 --> 3:48:45.240 what was that in twenty ten or twenty fourteen, and 3:48:45.320 --> 3:48:48.160 a thumping That's what George Bush called his two thousand 3:48:48.160 --> 3:48:50.440 and six loss thumping, and then and then Obama went 3:48:50.480 --> 3:48:53.800 with shellacking shellackin all right, Well, Ryan, we've been covering, 3:48:54.040 --> 3:48:56.680 you know, a lot of these candidates different races, but 3:48:56.920 --> 3:48:59.920 you're following the ballot referendums really closely. And by the way, 3:49:00.080 --> 3:49:02.720 before Ryan digs into the numbers, let's remember that the 3:49:02.879 --> 3:49:06.400 ballot referendums actually are very relevant to what's happening with 3:49:06.520 --> 3:49:10.280 these candidates, because if you have people showing up for abortion, 3:49:10.760 --> 3:49:12.800 let's say, in a state like Michigan, when that's where 3:49:12.840 --> 3:49:15.240 that's on the referendum, if you have people showing up 3:49:15.320 --> 3:49:18.680 for weed, for psychedelics. That makes a difference in some 3:49:18.800 --> 3:49:21.160 of these very close elections. And that's not a thing 3:49:21.240 --> 3:49:24.240 that a lot of legacy media folks factored into their predictions. 3:49:24.880 --> 3:49:26.960 What is it looking like right now, because it's so 3:49:27.040 --> 3:49:29.040 hard to know who's going to come out, and usually 3:49:29.320 --> 3:49:31.960 it is usually you can tell on the side of 3:49:32.040 --> 3:49:37.400 the intensity. So if it's a psychedelic referendum, for instance, 3:49:37.440 --> 3:49:40.400 like in Colorado, there aren't many people who are like 3:49:41.040 --> 3:49:44.560 rabidly hostile to psychedelics and are like only going to 3:49:44.680 --> 3:49:47.240 vote so that they can vote against psychedelics. But you 3:49:47.320 --> 3:49:50.520 are going to have a handful of people who will 3:49:50.600 --> 3:49:52.200 hear that it's on the ballot and they'll come out. 3:49:52.240 --> 3:49:54.040 Now that numbers have gone way down, you want to 3:49:54.080 --> 3:49:56.160 check Bobert while I'm looking at this. By the way, 3:49:56.320 --> 3:49:59.880 great point. So in so Colorado proposition one twenty two, 3:50:00.080 --> 3:50:02.720 this is this is to lea to decriminalize a bunch 3:50:02.720 --> 3:50:05.800 of different psychedelics. It's now up by six points. It 3:50:05.920 --> 3:50:08.680 was up it was up a ton earlier. So that 3:50:09.280 --> 3:50:11.760 that was probably because Boulder and Denver were coming in first, 3:50:11.840 --> 3:50:13.960 and now some of the rural areas are are coming in. 3:50:14.080 --> 3:50:17.520 So it's not clear if this is going to actually 3:50:17.600 --> 3:50:20.720 help Vobert or not. But separate from that, it looks 3:50:20.760 --> 3:50:23.560 like it's it looks like it's still in strong shape, 3:50:23.880 --> 3:50:27.200 which is itself a good thing. Like the more I 3:50:27.280 --> 3:50:30.560 think the more that we can remove penalties around around 3:50:30.920 --> 3:50:34.800 uh psychedelics, the better uh, you know, the better world 3:50:34.880 --> 3:50:39.040 that this becomes. Like also like as we're like facing 3:50:39.600 --> 3:50:43.240 this like dystopian future, where like we were talking earlier 3:50:43.360 --> 3:50:46.760 about people's views on the economy and whether or not 3:50:46.800 --> 3:50:48.840 whether they thought Republicans would make it better, whether the 3:50:49.080 --> 3:50:51.120 Democrats would think it make it better. I think we're 3:50:51.160 --> 3:50:53.960 going to find going forward over over the next decade 3:50:54.080 --> 3:50:56.600 or so that voters aren't going to think anybody is 3:50:56.640 --> 3:50:59.360 going to make anything better. That that people feel that 3:50:59.440 --> 3:51:02.480 we're just on a glide paths of doom and the 3:51:02.560 --> 3:51:06.160 one bright spot it's like at least at least bring 3:51:06.280 --> 3:51:09.520 psychedelics out of the shadows. It does depend on how 3:51:09.560 --> 3:51:13.400 these referendums are written, and there have been psychedelic referendums 3:51:13.400 --> 3:51:16.160 that I've seen, for instance here in DC, that people 3:51:16.280 --> 3:51:18.680 may be favorable to until you kind of read the referendum, 3:51:18.720 --> 3:51:19.960 you're like, there was a better way to write that. 3:51:20.080 --> 3:51:22.280 There was a more consensus way to write that that said, 3:51:22.920 --> 3:51:25.280 ran you, you pulled some really interesting numbers about what 3:51:25.400 --> 3:51:29.560 happened in Kentucky with their abortion reference, and let's just quick, 3:51:30.000 --> 3:51:34.240 how are they holding up that. Let me update everyone 3:51:34.320 --> 3:51:38.040 on Bobert. Bobert is Lauren Bobert. We flagged this over 3:51:38.080 --> 3:51:41.040 the course of the last hour because CBS News actually 3:51:41.160 --> 3:51:44.040 flagged it and said we could have an upset brewing 3:51:44.200 --> 3:51:47.960 in Colorado's third district, and indeed that is continuing. We're 3:51:47.960 --> 3:51:51.200 seeing a really I think shocking. I mean, it's not shocking, 3:51:51.360 --> 3:51:55.080 I guess in terms of candidate quality, but shocking in 3:51:55.160 --> 3:51:58.440 terms of that. It was on absolutely nobody's radar. Nobody's 3:51:58.520 --> 3:52:01.600 radar on the right, nobody's radar the center, maybe nobody's right. 3:52:01.760 --> 3:52:05.320 On the left. Adam Frish, the Democratic candidate, is up 3:52:05.440 --> 3:52:09.000 by so he's up fifty one point eight percent to Bobert, 3:52:09.120 --> 3:52:12.000 Lauren Bobert, who is at forty eight point two percent. 3:52:12.200 --> 3:52:16.600 That's what seventy one percent of votes counted. That's a 3:52:16.640 --> 3:52:21.240 big deal because again, there was this idea that we 3:52:21.400 --> 3:52:23.880 were going into a tsunami, which, by the way, I'll 3:52:24.040 --> 3:52:26.680 freely admit I thought was a possibility. It's not a 3:52:26.720 --> 3:52:28.800 prediction I would have ever written in stone, but I 3:52:28.840 --> 3:52:30.680 thought it was. It was a possibility that we might 3:52:30.720 --> 3:52:33.440 have been looking at over the last few days, given 3:52:33.480 --> 3:52:37.320 where some of these numbers were trending. But and again, 3:52:37.600 --> 3:52:39.720 it could still be a very good night for Republicans. 3:52:39.760 --> 3:52:42.320 We don't totally know yet. It's it is falling short 3:52:42.360 --> 3:52:44.800 of those fantasy predictions, There's no question about it. And 3:52:44.840 --> 3:52:47.600 I think Bobart Bobert being down in the poll, she's 3:52:47.640 --> 3:52:50.960 a very very maggot candidate, as many people know to 3:52:51.040 --> 3:52:55.480 say the very least. That is, it's getting into territory 3:52:55.480 --> 3:52:57.400 where it's looking like this might not this night might 3:52:57.480 --> 3:52:59.440 be a win for Mitch McConnell and a loss for 3:52:59.520 --> 3:53:03.040 Donald Trump. Yeah, and could also be a loss for OZ. 3:53:03.120 --> 3:53:06.440 And apparently we have we have a live update from OZ. 3:53:06.520 --> 3:53:10.760 Can we do we have them? Right? Excellent? Oh, welcome, 3:53:10.880 --> 3:53:13.320 welcome back. We weren't on the first time we were 3:53:13.360 --> 3:53:18.200 in the control room watching your update, Lewis. So what 3:53:18.440 --> 3:53:20.560 was the mood like at the beginning of the night, 3:53:20.680 --> 3:53:25.560 and what's the mood like now? Yeah, thanks for having 3:53:25.560 --> 3:53:28.680 me back on, guys, goodness evil. Yeah, the mood in 3:53:28.760 --> 3:53:31.920 the room has definitely shifted a little bit more negative. 3:53:32.280 --> 3:53:35.480 The first real mood shift was when Fox News, which 3:53:35.520 --> 3:53:37.880 is actually playing on the big screens back here behind 3:53:37.920 --> 3:53:40.440 me if you can't hear them, when Fox News called 3:53:40.520 --> 3:53:44.320 the governor's race for Shapiro. There were definitely some audible 3:53:44.400 --> 3:53:49.640 groans in size throughout the room. Some Yeah, definitely a 3:53:49.720 --> 3:53:53.680 five shift when that happened. Otherwise, folks are still watching. 3:53:54.240 --> 3:53:57.280 There's still some moptimism that the Bulls might turn around, 3:53:57.360 --> 3:54:00.120 but at this stage in the game, I'm definitely of 3:54:00.200 --> 3:54:04.320 Oriz to see betterment still with the lead here as 3:54:04.400 --> 3:54:07.200 more and more results are coming through. Wasn't what I 3:54:07.320 --> 3:54:11.160 was predicting, you know. Yeah, but the moodshift has definitely 3:54:11.200 --> 3:54:13.480 happened quite a bit. If you're just joining us now, 3:54:13.520 --> 3:54:16.560 we're with Louis Dangelis, who is at doctor Oz doctor 3:54:16.600 --> 3:54:18.760 Roger's victory party. We'll see if it actually is a 3:54:18.840 --> 3:54:22.240 victory party at Lewis. I'm curious. There's a lot of excitement. 3:54:22.360 --> 3:54:24.440 You know, you cover these things, you go to different places, 3:54:24.760 --> 3:54:29.000 do you since that there's excitement, particularly for doctor Oz. 3:54:29.040 --> 3:54:30.560 You know, if you go to a Trump rally. It's 3:54:30.600 --> 3:54:32.840 not as though there's all of this excitement for the 3:54:32.920 --> 3:54:35.520 Republican Party. If you're at a Bernie rally, it's not 3:54:35.640 --> 3:54:38.040 as though there's tons of excitement for the Democratic Party. 3:54:38.480 --> 3:54:42.200 Is there a particular sense of excitement for doctor Oz 3:54:42.440 --> 3:54:45.200 as a candidate? This man is a massive television star 3:54:45.320 --> 3:54:48.320 for years and years and years. But are people behind 3:54:48.440 --> 3:54:51.600 him personally or are they sort of anti Fetterman, anti 3:54:51.760 --> 3:54:56.360 dem I think kind of on both sides of this, 3:54:56.880 --> 3:55:00.360 I haven't heard that many folks excited excited about either candidate. 3:55:00.400 --> 3:55:02.160 I kind of talked a little bit about this earlier, 3:55:03.000 --> 3:55:05.200 you know, when we were at the Trump event on 3:55:05.360 --> 3:55:08.240 Saturday night and I was talking to folks there, and 3:55:08.960 --> 3:55:10.840 the first five or six people I talked to, they 3:55:10.840 --> 3:55:12.600 said they were going to be voting for Oz, but 3:55:12.960 --> 3:55:14.920 they weren't that excited about it. For a lot of 3:55:15.000 --> 3:55:18.200 those folks, Oz was not their first choice. The same 3:55:18.240 --> 3:55:20.640 thing goes for Fretterman, though, And one anecdote that I 3:55:20.720 --> 3:55:23.840 definitely want to share is that this is more so 3:55:23.960 --> 3:55:28.080 with Betterman. Voters and folks had those events, Like I mentioned, 3:55:28.120 --> 3:55:30.720 they weren't super excited about him. But I asked people 3:55:31.440 --> 3:55:34.720 what's your number one issue? Despite what a lot of 3:55:34.800 --> 3:55:36.760 the polling has kind of been saying over the last 3:55:36.800 --> 3:55:39.400 couple of weeks, a lot of people's number one issue 3:55:39.440 --> 3:55:44.920 is still abortion, especially with Democrat voters. And you know, I, personally, 3:55:45.280 --> 3:55:47.640 similarly to what you all have said in the past, 3:55:47.840 --> 3:55:51.480 thought that inflation was number one on all sorts of 3:55:51.520 --> 3:55:54.440 this stuff. But abortion seems to potentially be playing a 3:55:54.480 --> 3:55:56.560 bigger role in all of this than we initially thought 3:55:56.600 --> 3:55:59.960 it might. Interesting. I see you're in the press area 3:56:00.120 --> 3:56:02.640 over there. Have you talked to other reporters, what what? What? 3:56:02.840 --> 3:56:06.600 What's the reporter's conventional wisdom as they're watching the numbers 3:56:06.640 --> 3:56:11.240 come in. Surprised? Yeah, we're all kind of in there. 3:56:11.320 --> 3:56:13.760 We were all surprised to see first the you know, 3:56:14.160 --> 3:56:16.920 we're not surprised to see Shapiro having won that race, 3:56:17.040 --> 3:56:19.760 but having it me as larger of a margin as 3:56:19.800 --> 3:56:23.160 it is, and how quickly it's being called. And again 3:56:23.280 --> 3:56:26.160 surprised that Betterment is still up right now. I mean, 3:56:26.280 --> 3:56:28.120 I didn't envision, and a lot of the folks that 3:56:28.160 --> 3:56:30.960 I've been chatting with didn't envision a scenario where Oz 3:56:31.080 --> 3:56:33.360 wasn't up at this point. And then as the mail 3:56:33.400 --> 3:56:36.560 in ballance start to come in. Uh, you know, Betterment 3:56:36.760 --> 3:56:38.840 slowly chips away at the lead, trips away at the lead, 3:56:39.320 --> 3:56:41.880 like we saw with you know, the election with President 3:56:41.920 --> 3:56:46.640 Trump and Biden in twenty twenty. I just again, I 3:56:46.680 --> 3:56:49.160 don't think any of us are really envisioning the scenario 3:56:49.320 --> 3:56:51.840 where better mccamp was in the position that it is 3:56:51.920 --> 3:56:54.960 and the OZ campaign is down at the moment, I 3:56:55.040 --> 3:56:58.760 am hearing some cheers behind me. I'm not sure what 3:56:59.040 --> 3:57:01.240 exactly that is. Bill just as too early to call 3:57:01.400 --> 3:57:06.160 okay there, but you know how it goes, I don't know. Yeah, 3:57:06.920 --> 3:57:09.240 well yeah, and let's I mean, maybe it's splitting hairs. 3:57:09.320 --> 3:57:13.200 But you've been there sort of gauging everybody's temperature. Is 3:57:13.360 --> 3:57:15.960 there cautious You said this a little bit earlier, But 3:57:16.240 --> 3:57:18.360 if we can just keep pulling out that thread, is 3:57:18.400 --> 3:57:21.400 it a sense of cautious optimism? Because in truth, you know, 3:57:21.440 --> 3:57:23.880 I think I think it is surprising to I think 3:57:23.920 --> 3:57:26.040 it's probably surprising to me that it's as close as 3:57:26.080 --> 3:57:28.440 it is right now in the night. But that doesn't 3:57:28.480 --> 3:57:30.600 mean it's over. It certainly doesn't mean it's over. It 3:57:30.680 --> 3:57:34.000 could go one of two ways, obviously, So what is 3:57:34.200 --> 3:57:38.320 the do people still feel okay? Is everybody depressed or 3:57:38.400 --> 3:57:40.480 are they like, all right, well, we're just going to 3:57:40.520 --> 3:57:43.280 be here longer than we thought we would. You know, 3:57:43.400 --> 3:57:45.880 I wouldn't I wouldn't say depressed. Yet, Yes, I agree. 3:57:45.920 --> 3:57:47.720 I think it's more of a I think we're going 3:57:47.760 --> 3:57:50.320 to be here longer than we thought, but definitely concerned 3:57:50.360 --> 3:57:54.200 in the eyes. If you will, yeah, it's yeah, it's 3:57:54.360 --> 3:57:57.760 it's it's less less excitement than I thought was going 3:57:57.800 --> 3:58:01.840 to be going on if if you will, any good 3:58:01.920 --> 3:58:07.240 anecdotes of interactions with OZ voters you can share, Yeah, 3:58:07.360 --> 3:58:09.480 for sure. I talked a little bit about this one 3:58:09.560 --> 3:58:13.720 or earlier. But first I met a bunch of different 3:58:13.800 --> 3:58:18.280 folks who were OZ voters, but they were also Shapiro voters. 3:58:19.200 --> 3:58:21.440 A couple of volunteers for the OZ campaign that I 3:58:21.520 --> 3:58:25.000 spoke with earlier. Obviously, like when folks who are out 3:58:25.040 --> 3:58:28.200 canvassing and whatnot, usually the parties work together, and if 3:58:28.240 --> 3:58:30.520 you're putting out signs for one candidate, you might also 3:58:30.560 --> 3:58:33.120 be doing it for the other. And a lot of 3:58:33.200 --> 3:58:37.920 the OZ volunteers were telling me that they weren't necessarily 3:58:37.960 --> 3:58:40.640 excited about putting Masterriano signs out as well, and they 3:58:40.680 --> 3:58:43.280 don't necessarily support him. They think he goes a little 3:58:43.280 --> 3:58:45.440 bit too far on issues like abortion. They think he 3:58:45.880 --> 3:58:48.960 goes a little too far on some of the certifying 3:58:49.000 --> 3:58:51.160 of the election comments that he's made in the past. 3:58:51.320 --> 3:58:55.240 So that was that was an interesting anecdote. Another interesting 3:58:55.480 --> 3:58:56.880 thing that happened in the room, and I want to 3:58:57.000 --> 3:58:59.040 shout out one of these people. After I was on 3:58:59.120 --> 3:59:02.880 the first time, a Breaking Points premium member from the 3:59:02.960 --> 3:59:05.960 crowd in here came out and bound me. Her name 3:59:06.040 --> 3:59:07.880 is Samantha. I told her I would shout her out, 3:59:08.000 --> 3:59:10.520 so if she's still listening Jumpsters, she'll probably pop back over. 3:59:10.960 --> 3:59:14.280 And then actually an OZ staff person came over and 3:59:14.440 --> 3:59:16.840 the OZ staff member was listening to Breaking Points in 3:59:16.920 --> 3:59:19.480 his ear and came and found me as well, which 3:59:19.520 --> 3:59:22.360 is pretty cool. I gotta say that's awesome. Do you 3:59:22.720 --> 3:59:25.640 get what kind of shwag do you have that shows 3:59:25.680 --> 3:59:30.160 that you're like Breaking Points? I actually don't have any 3:59:30.680 --> 3:59:33.000 Breaking Points swag with me. Maybe you guys can hook 3:59:33.000 --> 3:59:41.720 it up for next time. Well counterpoints counterpoint, well yeah, yes, 3:59:42.000 --> 3:59:45.360 Crystal and Sager did not offer me that earlier, So yeah, 3:59:45.480 --> 3:59:49.720 you guys, what we'll do The counterpoints stuff excellent. So 3:59:50.160 --> 3:59:52.520 she just saw you and the staffer heard you. So 3:59:52.600 --> 3:59:55.320 that's that's how they saw me. They saw and they 3:59:55.400 --> 3:59:57.120 came and found me in the press area. The dress 3:59:57.240 --> 4:00:01.400 are very much weaseled into a tiny, little cooped up area. 4:00:01.520 --> 4:00:04.440 We don't have much space to move around. So yeah, 4:00:04.640 --> 4:00:06.560 if folks are interested, I can try to and then 4:00:06.560 --> 4:00:08.080 I'll let you guys get back to it. I can 4:00:08.120 --> 4:00:10.040 give a quick little we'll see if it works. If 4:00:10.080 --> 4:00:17.480 it doesn't, feel free to pull away. Yeah, yeah, well, yes, 4:00:17.600 --> 4:00:21.000 it's it's actually at a flooding club, I think, like 4:00:21.160 --> 4:00:26.560 a country club type five, but without the uh a 4:00:26.600 --> 4:00:29.080 little bit of the room here on the other side, 4:00:30.120 --> 4:00:32.960 on the other side of all the cameras there, it's 4:00:33.000 --> 4:00:35.160 a little area where we've got our laptops and what 4:00:35.320 --> 4:00:37.600 not set up. But uh, I will say, I do 4:00:37.760 --> 4:00:40.680 think that we're probably the only real independent outlet here, 4:00:40.680 --> 4:00:44.920 which is pretty awesome as well. Mostly just uh the 4:00:45.200 --> 4:00:48.600 big guys are here, local TV stations and whatnot, but 4:00:48.680 --> 4:00:51.840 definitely not seeing any other independent Well, Lewis, We'll try 4:00:51.880 --> 4:00:54.880 to get back to you later. Go ask them. Go 4:00:55.000 --> 4:00:59.040 ask folks there what what the hell happened? How their 4:00:59.120 --> 4:01:02.320 Man couldn't sell this. He's he's been able to sell 4:01:02.760 --> 4:01:04.880 all sorts of things that anybody, all kinds oft but 4:01:05.000 --> 4:01:07.360 he couldn't sell this. Well, we don't know. He may 4:01:07.440 --> 4:01:10.120 come back, we really, yeah, we don't way. We might 4:01:10.160 --> 4:01:12.680 not have like really confidence in these results for the 4:01:12.800 --> 4:01:14.840 next few days because they're having a lot of issues 4:01:14.920 --> 4:01:19.120 counting in Philadelphia based on different cases and reconciliation and 4:01:19.320 --> 4:01:23.240 all dated ballots and all that kod stuff. Lewis, thank 4:01:23.280 --> 4:01:26.640 you so much. It was fantastic. We really appreciate it. Yeah, 4:01:26.720 --> 4:01:30.920 thanks for having me us awesome. New York Times still 4:01:30.960 --> 4:01:33.280 has him up by fifty thousand votes, and New York 4:01:33.320 --> 4:01:36.440 Times is slower, so you might have Fetterman up by 4:01:36.480 --> 4:01:39.240 fifty thousand, up by fifty thousand votes, and so that's 4:01:39.280 --> 4:01:42.120 not a small gap at this point, Like that's seventy 4:01:42.160 --> 4:01:44.960 one percent in fifty thousand up. That's you'd rather be Fetterman. 4:01:45.080 --> 4:01:47.520 They're absolutely rather be fed. Yeah, and especially with the 4:01:47.600 --> 4:01:50.760 remaining I mean, this is your home turf point literally, Yeah, 4:01:50.800 --> 4:01:55.200 you got the Philadelphia suburbs you got Yeah, and they're 4:01:55.560 --> 4:02:01.440 still counting so Philadelphia. Do they count mail in ballots later? Yes, 4:02:01.520 --> 4:02:04.240 So that's what I thought. That's a big advantage. Yes, 4:02:04.360 --> 4:02:09.160 And it's because there was a lawsuit that like banned 4:02:09.240 --> 4:02:14.320 them from counting them earlier by Republicans, and so they're 4:02:14.440 --> 4:02:16.520 so they're moving them through now. But that's why it's 4:02:16.560 --> 4:02:19.240 taking That's why it's taking longer. So if any if 4:02:19.280 --> 4:02:21.680 you hear anybody complaining that Philadelphia takes so long, it's 4:02:21.720 --> 4:02:24.800 because Republicans sued them and stopped them from counting them 4:02:24.840 --> 4:02:30.040 earlier in the way that other counties are allowed to do. So. Yes, 4:02:30.160 --> 4:02:32.760 so you would if you were Fetterman and you were 4:02:32.840 --> 4:02:35.600 down by fifty thousand, you might be thinking, like, hey, 4:02:36.160 --> 4:02:38.440 I still have some hope. I'm probably gonna lose, but 4:02:38.480 --> 4:02:41.120 I have a hope Fetterman being up by fifty thousand 4:02:41.120 --> 4:02:44.840 at this point, I think he's feeling pretty good. We'll see. 4:02:45.320 --> 4:02:48.840 But but like you said, like the suburbs, how the 4:02:48.920 --> 4:02:51.760 suburbs come in, and how the culture wars, you know, 4:02:51.880 --> 4:02:54.120 shake out. We're going to talk. We'll talk to Terry Shilling, 4:02:54.800 --> 4:02:57.520 who's been, you know, waging the culture war all over 4:02:57.560 --> 4:03:00.760 the country in this in this camp. Pain is probably 4:03:00.800 --> 4:03:06.000 disappointed that it's at these results so far. Yeah, I 4:03:06.040 --> 4:03:08.240 don't know. I mean a lot of that was a 4:03:08.320 --> 4:03:10.000 lot of those efforts, and we'll ask Terry. I think 4:03:10.040 --> 4:03:12.800 he spent about fifteen million dollars on ads if I'm correct, 4:03:13.440 --> 4:03:15.440 and a lot of that there should be a lot 4:03:15.480 --> 4:03:18.200 of money. Yeah, a lot of that those in Arizona, 4:03:18.960 --> 4:03:21.640 and we just don't know what's happening in Arizona. We 4:03:21.680 --> 4:03:24.560 don't know what's happening with Catherine Cortez Masto. These are 4:03:24.640 --> 4:03:27.640 some big places. And Oregon is another place where you 4:03:27.680 --> 4:03:30.640 haven't had a governor that's Republican since the nineteen eighties. 4:03:31.040 --> 4:03:32.960 We have no idea what's happening in that race. But 4:03:33.240 --> 4:03:36.800 what we do have are indicators. For instance, from Virginia seven, 4:03:37.160 --> 4:03:41.120 that's Crystal's district where Abigail Spanberger seems to have eked 4:03:41.160 --> 4:03:44.040 out that win. It's been called she's eked out that win. 4:03:44.120 --> 4:03:45.600 And that was supposed to be one of the bell 4:03:45.680 --> 4:03:48.680 weather districts that not just for a tsunami, but just 4:03:48.720 --> 4:03:50.920 for a red wave. So a red wave would have 4:03:50.960 --> 4:03:54.840 been if Yesli Bargo wins Virginio seven, Republican just knocks 4:03:54.880 --> 4:03:59.120 out thecumbent Abigail Spamburger. It is a different district. But 4:03:59.360 --> 4:04:02.120 if that were the case, then people said, all right, 4:04:02.160 --> 4:04:03.880 then we can look at Jennifer Wexton, then we can 4:04:03.920 --> 4:04:06.440 look at Virginia ten. If she loses, then we're in 4:04:06.600 --> 4:04:10.360 for a tsunami. And that hasn't been the case. One 4:04:10.480 --> 4:04:13.080 thing that I think is important to start teasing out here, though, 4:04:13.720 --> 4:04:18.520 and this is this is kind of the the big 4:04:18.640 --> 4:04:20.720 story in the legacy media right now, and I think 4:04:21.200 --> 4:04:24.800 genuinely sort of across the board, because the narrative going 4:04:24.880 --> 4:04:27.560 into this was Momentum is building for Republicans. Momentum is 4:04:27.600 --> 4:04:33.080 building for Republicans. But at the same time, there was 4:04:33.400 --> 4:04:35.360 a lot of coverage over the course of the summer 4:04:35.440 --> 4:04:38.360 about how they were going to be shocking Democratic upsets, 4:04:38.440 --> 4:04:42.720 whether it's val Deming's toppling Mark or Rubio, whether it's 4:04:43.320 --> 4:04:46.280 like that was like a big jd Vance losing jd 4:04:46.440 --> 4:04:48.400 Vance has been called for jd Vance. As far as 4:04:48.480 --> 4:04:51.120 we know, jad Vance is going to handle that up 4:04:51.200 --> 4:04:53.680 by ten, He's going to handle that easily. I think 4:04:53.760 --> 4:04:59.040 what we're potentially looking at here are sort of spotty tsunamis, 4:04:59.160 --> 4:05:01.880 and that's just the numbers. Because one of the districts 4:05:01.920 --> 4:05:05.240 we've zeroed in on is Florida twenty seven. Florida twenty seven, 4:05:05.800 --> 4:05:08.080 And I hate to sound like a broken record, but 4:05:08.120 --> 4:05:10.440 if you're just tuning in here, now, that's a district 4:05:10.600 --> 4:05:14.000 that Donald Trump eked out a win in. If you 4:05:14.040 --> 4:05:16.560 look at the Daily Coast tabulations, which they do a 4:05:16.600 --> 4:05:19.040 really helpful thing. They put it a full spreadsheet so 4:05:19.160 --> 4:05:22.240 you can see how the new redrawn districts that people 4:05:22.240 --> 4:05:25.200 are voting in tonight would have voted in twenty twenty, 4:05:25.480 --> 4:05:29.640 just barely by the by like one percent. You get 4:05:29.680 --> 4:05:32.120 a win for Donald Trump in that district. Maria Elvirus 4:05:32.200 --> 4:05:35.800 Salazar Republican looks to have taken that by double digits. 4:05:35.880 --> 4:05:37.360 And that's going to be thanks in part to the 4:05:37.440 --> 4:05:40.080 Cuban vote, to the Hispanic vote. The Cuban vote is 4:05:40.080 --> 4:05:42.320 a very specific kind of vote. The Hispanic vote more 4:05:42.320 --> 4:05:46.280 broadly is not a monolith. But that is really really interesting. 4:05:46.520 --> 4:05:50.560 And again in Florida, we just see Ron de Santis 4:05:50.680 --> 4:05:53.760 outperforming Donald Trump. We see Mark or Rubio doing better 4:05:53.840 --> 4:05:56.040 than people expected him to. And where we're going to 4:05:56.080 --> 4:05:59.280 continue looking is Texas. If we see in the Rio 4:05:59.360 --> 4:06:02.600 Grand Valley numbers like that for Myrafloras in the thirty fourth, 4:06:03.000 --> 4:06:05.600 these are going to be where you see not the 4:06:06.240 --> 4:06:09.960 across the board tsunami, but you do see Republicans walking 4:06:10.000 --> 4:06:13.040 away from tonight. Potentially, we don't know yet with the 4:06:13.160 --> 4:06:17.160 sense that the realignment and when it comes to Hispanic voters, 4:06:17.240 --> 4:06:20.080 maybe if we're zooming into Milwaukee and Philadelphia over the 4:06:20.200 --> 4:06:24.000 next few days, maybe Democrats lose some enthusiasm, lose some 4:06:24.080 --> 4:06:27.400 support in the black vote. We don't know, but that's 4:06:27.800 --> 4:06:30.280 very much still on the table, especially given some of 4:06:30.320 --> 4:06:32.440 the results that are already in so to just sort 4:06:32.480 --> 4:06:35.240 of to poke a little bit of a hole in 4:06:35.320 --> 4:06:37.640 that broader narrative. And I'm not just saying this because 4:06:37.840 --> 4:06:40.480 I'm conservative. I'm saying this because I do think it's 4:06:40.520 --> 4:06:44.960 worth pushing back a little bit on the narrative that's congealing. 4:06:45.480 --> 4:06:48.120 At the same time, though that top line very much 4:06:48.360 --> 4:06:51.000 is the case is very clear. That top line is 4:06:51.280 --> 4:06:56.360 that the tsunami fantasy that Republicans had been sort of 4:06:56.480 --> 4:06:59.120 gloating about, I would say the last few days, and 4:06:59.280 --> 4:07:01.960 I really thought that was a probability or a possibility, 4:07:02.040 --> 4:07:04.800 not a probability, but a possibility that's not going to 4:07:04.920 --> 4:07:08.120 pan out. Although if you're going to Pocohol, does this 4:07:08.280 --> 4:07:11.640 patch the whole back up? We got one point three 4:07:11.720 --> 4:07:20.320 million votes counted in Arizona. No, because only Katie Hobbs 4:07:20.360 --> 4:07:26.120 being up over Carry Lake. So she's up. That's I 4:07:26.160 --> 4:07:28.520 would not expect that though. I mean, so you've got 4:07:28.960 --> 4:07:33.520 so in Arizona, you have the northeastern Apache County, which 4:07:33.560 --> 4:07:37.120 is Republican, not reporting anything at all. Yet you have 4:07:37.280 --> 4:07:42.200 Navajo County only reporting half, although that's fairly split the 4:07:42.280 --> 4:07:48.720 big I don't know. I mean, you would expect Carrie 4:07:48.800 --> 4:07:51.040 Lake to be doing better than this if she was 4:07:51.640 --> 4:07:55.560 going to win at this point. So compared to so 4:07:55.760 --> 4:08:00.640 she's down fifty seven forty three, compared to Mark Mark Kelly, 4:08:01.360 --> 4:08:04.800 who's who's up fifty eight to forty Oh no, not sorry, 4:08:04.880 --> 4:08:09.080 not fifty eight forty that's that's in one county. Not 4:08:10.480 --> 4:08:14.320 not not what people were expecting. I think it's it's 4:08:14.480 --> 4:08:17.400 tough to say with forty seven percent, but we'll those 4:08:17.480 --> 4:08:20.880 numbers will change and the very it is fifty yeah, 4:08:20.920 --> 4:08:24.440 it is fifty eight to forty right now, right, yeah, 4:08:24.480 --> 4:08:26.920 So those numbers can change a lot one point and 4:08:27.040 --> 4:08:30.000 then we don't do we have anything in on Texas 4:08:30.080 --> 4:08:34.120 yet because one point. Oh here, if numbers are starting 4:08:34.160 --> 4:08:37.280 to come in, yes, one point on Miami and South Florida, 4:08:38.320 --> 4:08:42.760 it's it's such an unusual place in you know, when 4:08:42.800 --> 4:08:46.400 Obama was elected, there was this sense that the next 4:08:46.480 --> 4:08:50.760 generation of Cubans were going to move democratic and this 4:08:50.920 --> 4:08:53.880 was going to become a city that basically voted in 4:08:53.960 --> 4:08:56.280 the same way that a lot of other cities did. 4:08:56.320 --> 4:08:59.920 Eventually as the kind of hostility that Democrats died out, 4:09:00.120 --> 4:09:04.840 hostility which is literally still rooted in hostility towards JFK 4:09:06.480 --> 4:09:10.000 for his betrayal during the Bay of Pigs. Like that's 4:09:12.000 --> 4:09:16.800 Miami Cubans support the embargo right right, but not the 4:09:16.920 --> 4:09:19.520 children of those Cubans, So but a ton of them 4:09:19.560 --> 4:09:23.600 moved away. And then you also had this mass influx 4:09:24.320 --> 4:09:30.680 of rich, right wing Venezuelans, Colombians, South Americans, Mexicans across 4:09:30.720 --> 4:09:34.560 the board. So in Miami went from a place that 4:09:34.720 --> 4:09:39.720 was very Cuban American dominated to now being a place 4:09:39.760 --> 4:09:43.480 where basically people with right wing politics already and wealth 4:09:43.680 --> 4:09:46.120 from South and Central America are heading. And I think 4:09:46.160 --> 4:09:49.280 it is reshaping the entire politics of South South Florida. 4:09:50.440 --> 4:09:53.480 Combined with the trumpification of the entire state, but also 4:09:53.600 --> 4:09:58.240 maybe reshaping the politics of southeastern Texas, and that is 4:09:58.640 --> 4:10:01.400 and perhaps we'll see some of So let's roll through 4:10:01.440 --> 4:10:04.400 some of this. So Maya Flores, that's one we were 4:10:04.480 --> 4:10:07.840 looking at, right, Yeah, Myra Flores, So thirty four, she's 4:10:07.880 --> 4:10:10.280 down by ten thousand votes with sixty seven percent in. 4:10:10.600 --> 4:10:14.120 That's super interesting because that's again a tsunami would have 4:10:14.200 --> 4:10:19.280 been Myra Flores right now, comfortable, right comfortable, and she 4:10:19.840 --> 4:10:23.520 down eleven eleven percent against Vicenta Gonzale. She is a 4:10:23.760 --> 4:10:26.360 very good candidate from the perspective of Republicans, from the 4:10:26.400 --> 4:10:29.760 perspective of me, I mean as a conservative journalist, I've 4:10:29.800 --> 4:10:31.640 I've talked to her. I think she's a good candidate. 4:10:32.920 --> 4:10:35.720 We don't know what happens there. Looks like Michelle Vaejo 4:10:35.880 --> 4:10:39.760 is going to lose. That's that's a big to Monica 4:10:39.840 --> 4:10:42.000 de la Cruz. She's down by eleven points with seventy 4:10:42.040 --> 4:10:43.920 seven percent of the vote in. So this is roughly 4:10:44.000 --> 4:10:46.640 the same. Now there's a ten percent more in in 4:10:47.280 --> 4:10:53.080 fifteen here. So now Henry Henry Quaar cruising despite that 4:10:53.200 --> 4:10:56.320 was another big if that's a same subject of a loser, right, 4:10:56.960 --> 4:10:59.320 So he's he's up by He's up by twelve points. 4:10:59.320 --> 4:11:05.000 He's up by fourteen thousand votes. Greg gasar squad member, 4:11:05.080 --> 4:11:07.560 incoming squad member. He was obviously always going to win. 4:11:07.680 --> 4:11:10.280 He's he's up by fifty points. This is an Austin, 4:11:10.400 --> 4:11:16.000 Austin guy. Let's see who else wal Qing Castro oh here, 4:11:16.880 --> 4:11:24.800 Tony Gonzalez winning comfortably Republican Tony Gonzalez, what other whatever? 4:11:25.640 --> 4:11:27.720 So the Myyra Flores you said, they were, like, what's 4:11:27.800 --> 4:11:32.600 fifty percent in in Texas six sixty seven sixty seven percent, 4:11:32.760 --> 4:11:35.400 she's down by eleven percentage points in ten thousand votes. 4:11:35.680 --> 4:11:39.800 So they redrew that district. But that's a again that 4:11:40.200 --> 4:11:43.800 Republicans felt very good about that, right they loved Meyra Flores, 4:11:43.840 --> 4:11:46.960 like she became like a celebrity, like she's our counter 4:11:47.040 --> 4:11:50.280 to AOC, and again like she's a good candidate, could 4:11:50.320 --> 4:11:52.680 come back and win. But it's not looking good for 4:11:52.760 --> 4:11:55.120 her right now. Well, and it's certainly not an easy, 4:11:55.240 --> 4:11:59.560 comfortable win either way. And and that's and we're again 4:11:59.640 --> 4:12:04.680 we're looking at Lauren Bobert. How's Bobert looking so like, 4:12:04.920 --> 4:12:08.480 let's just be clear, Bobert's at forty eight percent yeah, okay, 4:12:08.520 --> 4:12:09.960 so it's still the last time we said it was 4:12:10.000 --> 4:12:12.520 at seventy one percent reporting. Frish is at fifty one 4:12:12.560 --> 4:12:14.800 point nine, Bobert's at forty eight point one. This is 4:12:14.880 --> 4:12:18.000 not a race that was on anybody's radar. But let's 4:12:18.520 --> 4:12:24.560 continue on and just say we had over the summer expectations. 4:12:24.600 --> 4:12:26.480 I mean, Ron Johnson is going to win. There was 4:12:26.760 --> 4:12:30.040 an expectation that perhaps Ron Johnson wasn't going to win. 4:12:30.200 --> 4:12:32.360 It looks like right now Ron Johnson is going to win. 4:12:32.480 --> 4:12:33.840 He's going to be I thought he would win by 4:12:33.880 --> 4:12:36.560 eight or ten. You did, Yeah, he's He's only up 4:12:36.640 --> 4:12:38.360 by a couple at this point. Right, Well, he might 4:12:38.440 --> 4:12:41.720 still end it. It's early. Yeah, although I imagine the 4:12:41.800 --> 4:12:45.200 votes on milwaukeeer saw it standing. But so that was 4:12:45.800 --> 4:12:48.320 there was this idea that Ron Johnson probably wasn't going 4:12:48.400 --> 4:12:51.240 to pull it out. There was real chatter that Mark 4:12:51.400 --> 4:12:53.760 Rubio might lose. That sounds ridiculous, but there was real 4:12:53.840 --> 4:12:56.680 chatter that jd Vance might lose. Jd Vance has won. 4:12:57.600 --> 4:13:02.200 So it is the case that we've seen some counter 4:13:02.320 --> 4:13:05.800 narrative Republican victories here and that Republicans that were sort 4:13:05.840 --> 4:13:09.080 of counted out over the course of the summer have 4:13:09.200 --> 4:13:12.240 been able to hang on. And so that's why I 4:13:12.440 --> 4:13:16.280 do think there's a little bit of air being let 4:13:16.320 --> 4:13:17.880 out of the balloon right now, a lot of air 4:13:18.000 --> 4:13:20.720 probably for Republicans. If you lose Myra Flores, if you 4:13:20.840 --> 4:13:27.040 lose I mean they lost to Shapiro in Pennsylvania. If 4:13:27.080 --> 4:13:30.080 you're losing New Hampshire. They did lose New Hampshire. That's 4:13:30.080 --> 4:13:32.800 been called for Maki Hassid. These were the fantasy things 4:13:32.840 --> 4:13:36.000 that seemed in reach. That's letting air out of the balloon. 4:13:36.040 --> 4:13:39.400 There's no question about it. The same thing or same 4:13:39.480 --> 4:13:42.400 story though in Florida. On the flip side, this is 4:13:42.480 --> 4:13:46.120 big stuff. In Ohio, that's a big win for jd 4:13:46.280 --> 4:13:49.480 Vance especially, you know when Mitch McConnell didn't want jad 4:13:49.640 --> 4:13:53.520 Vance to do anything. So from the perspective of, you know, 4:13:53.640 --> 4:13:57.720 the sort of right more broadly, I don't think they're 4:13:57.800 --> 4:13:59.920 depressed right now. I should check in with some sort 4:13:59.960 --> 4:14:01.560 of is while we're talking here and see what the 4:14:01.600 --> 4:14:04.200 mood is. I don't think they're depressed, but I do 4:14:04.280 --> 4:14:07.280 think there's deflation. I imagine another one that people were 4:14:07.400 --> 4:14:12.240 watching Democrats were watching closely. Johanna Hayes, who represents a 4:14:12.320 --> 4:14:16.640 swing district in Connecticut, and she's been a super progressive 4:14:17.840 --> 4:14:21.320 in her voting record, and she was famously she was 4:14:21.400 --> 4:14:23.680 I think Teacher of the Year in twenty fifteen twenty sixteen. 4:14:23.720 --> 4:14:26.520 Grew up in a housing project in this very rich district, 4:14:27.080 --> 4:14:31.200 now represents the district. Had always said, look, you want 4:14:31.240 --> 4:14:33.520 to if I'm going to say what I believe, if 4:14:33.560 --> 4:14:35.960 I'm a one term member of Congress, that's what it is. 4:14:36.400 --> 4:14:38.080 She now looks like she's on her way to her 4:14:38.120 --> 4:14:40.000 third term. She's up. I mean, she's only up by 4:14:40.040 --> 4:14:45.000 four points with forty percent in, but she's you know, 4:14:45.440 --> 4:14:48.280 if it were that kind of red wave year, she'd 4:14:48.320 --> 4:14:51.480 be down right now and people would be stressing, oh wow, 4:14:51.600 --> 4:14:54.680 like Johanna Hayes is out. What about Michigan? So Michigan? 4:14:55.120 --> 4:14:59.120 And do we have Terry ready? Let's see he's almost ready, 4:14:59.520 --> 4:15:02.840 but Michigan. It's another good example that's a fantasy, that's 4:15:03.240 --> 4:15:05.760 a fantasy win for Republicans that it felt like we're 4:15:05.760 --> 4:15:07.640 at their fingertips that were going to knock out Gretchen 4:15:07.680 --> 4:15:10.240 Whitmer because of COVID. It's something we haven't even talked 4:15:10.240 --> 4:15:12.880 about on the broadcast so far, that's certainly front and 4:15:12.960 --> 4:15:16.440 center in a lot of voters' minds school lockdowns. Gretchen 4:15:16.480 --> 4:15:21.120 Whitmer has really tried to pretend that her her legacy 4:15:21.160 --> 4:15:24.440 of school lockdowns isn't what it is and isn't what 4:15:24.560 --> 4:15:26.440 it was, and looks like she's going to pull this 4:15:26.520 --> 4:15:30.560 out so interestingly Alyssa Slotkin, So the Times lists are 4:15:31.680 --> 4:15:36.040 down by twelve points, but they still lift it leaning 4:15:36.120 --> 4:15:40.200 D which means there must be a lot of Democratic 4:15:40.280 --> 4:15:43.920 areas still out, but she has by no means, you know, 4:15:44.040 --> 4:15:47.280 put that one away. Alyssa Slockin is one of the 4:15:48.520 --> 4:15:51.320 key Democrats that there that they're trying to knock out. 4:15:52.440 --> 4:15:57.200 Hillary Schulton is still leaning D up fifty two forty 4:15:57.280 --> 4:16:01.840 five against against John Gibbs was the one that Democrats 4:16:01.880 --> 4:16:05.040 put a bunch of money in behind right to try 4:16:05.120 --> 4:16:07.640 to this. That was one of their plays where they're like, 4:16:07.680 --> 4:16:11.280 we're going to go elect an unelectable right winger and 4:16:11.360 --> 4:16:13.840 then how ha ha ha, we'll own the Republicans that way. 4:16:14.080 --> 4:16:18.360 They did that with Baul Duke in New Hampshire. Was 4:16:18.640 --> 4:16:23.840 Gibbs the one that beat the modern Republican that everybody hates. 4:16:24.080 --> 4:16:28.040 I don't know. Well, so we have actually Terry here. 4:16:28.920 --> 4:16:33.160 On last week's Counterpoints, we played some ads specifically, I 4:16:33.200 --> 4:16:35.880 think we focused and played this ad from Nevada against 4:16:35.920 --> 4:16:39.240 Catherine Cortez Masto that was produced by the American Principles Project. 4:16:39.760 --> 4:16:43.400 And we have Terry Shilling here with us now from 4:16:43.480 --> 4:16:47.800 the American Principles Project. Terry, welcome to Counterpoints. We're excited 4:16:47.840 --> 4:16:50.400 to have you here on election night. Hey, thanks so 4:16:50.520 --> 4:16:53.800 much for having me, Emily and Ryan. It's really great 4:16:53.840 --> 4:16:56.840 to be here. So you've got an American Principals Project 4:16:56.880 --> 4:16:58.680 has a decent chunk of change on the line to night. 4:16:58.880 --> 4:17:01.320 I think you guys have spent fifth teen million dollars. 4:17:01.520 --> 4:17:04.640 Is that just an ads, Terry, Uh No, that's a 4:17:04.720 --> 4:17:09.120 portion of that's been in ads and direct voter contact. 4:17:09.800 --> 4:17:12.320 But that's our total spend for the cycle counting twenty 4:17:12.360 --> 4:17:15.080 twenty one and twenty twenty two. But you know, it's 4:17:15.120 --> 4:17:17.640 it's really interesting because well, we spent you know, that 4:17:17.840 --> 4:17:22.040 much in this cycle the economic groups and the the 4:17:22.400 --> 4:17:24.720 crime groups and all that the most the vast majority 4:17:24.760 --> 4:17:29.120 of spending has been on on those top issues. It's 4:17:29.240 --> 4:17:31.560 it's really interesting. We have a long night ahead of us, 4:17:31.640 --> 4:17:33.520 where we still have a lot more results to see. 4:17:33.560 --> 4:17:36.360 We still have Arizona to come in in Nevada, but 4:17:36.560 --> 4:17:38.520 you know, it's it's looking like it's not such a 4:17:38.600 --> 4:17:42.160 big red wave as a lot of people predicted. Yeah, 4:17:42.280 --> 4:17:43.800 that's what we wanted to ask you about that. Yeah, 4:17:44.040 --> 4:17:46.960 talk talk us through Arizona here, because you know, what 4:17:47.200 --> 4:17:50.960 what what's your understanding of what's in so far and 4:17:51.200 --> 4:17:54.320 what's still outstanding when it comes to both the you know, 4:17:54.480 --> 4:17:56.880 the the Carry Lake Race and the and the Blake 4:17:56.960 --> 4:18:00.920 Masters Mark Mark Kelly Race. Let me pulled up real quick. 4:18:00.960 --> 4:18:03.200 I was going through it before I was talking with 4:18:03.280 --> 4:18:06.320 you guys. So it looks like, you know, about half 4:18:06.360 --> 4:18:09.840 the votes are counted. Lake is still she's under about 4:18:09.880 --> 4:18:13.720 thirteen points with fifty four percent to go. Look, we 4:18:13.840 --> 4:18:17.120 still have a lot to still count and you know, 4:18:17.200 --> 4:18:20.320 we'll see what happens. But we don't know, We don't 4:18:20.360 --> 4:18:24.600 know exactly what happened here. It's obviously not great for Republicans. 4:18:24.760 --> 4:18:27.240 I know that we were really hoping for a much 4:18:27.320 --> 4:18:31.920 bigger night here. But we'll see. We're the good thing 4:18:31.960 --> 4:18:35.320 about elections that they're clarifying, Right, it's a moment where 4:18:35.480 --> 4:18:37.720 you get to see where the American people actually are. 4:18:37.920 --> 4:18:39.920 They cast their votes, they tell you what they want, 4:18:40.080 --> 4:18:42.800 who they don't want in office, and you have to 4:18:42.880 --> 4:18:47.000 reassess things. And ultimately, we had a really big winner tonight, 4:18:47.080 --> 4:18:50.400 and I think that that's Ronda Santis. He won Florida 4:18:50.520 --> 4:18:53.560 as it stands right now by twenty points. That's a 4:18:53.600 --> 4:18:55.840 big deal. And so we have to ask ourselves why 4:18:55.880 --> 4:18:59.000 did Ronda Santis win in Florida, which he barely won 4:18:59.080 --> 4:19:01.920 in twenty eighteen, right he wanted by I think less 4:19:02.040 --> 4:19:04.960 than a percentage point in twenty eighteen, But now he's 4:19:05.000 --> 4:19:08.040 won by twenty points. Why did that happen? And why 4:19:08.120 --> 4:19:12.080 are Republicans now still floundering? I would argue that Republicans 4:19:12.160 --> 4:19:16.920 still lack a real message, a real vision that they 4:19:17.040 --> 4:19:20.120 presented the American people. It was an anti Biden message, 4:19:20.160 --> 4:19:23.880 it was an anti progressive message, but it was not 4:19:24.120 --> 4:19:28.000 an inspirational message. They did not cast a bold vision 4:19:28.080 --> 4:19:31.360 that showed Americans where they wanted to take the country. 4:19:31.400 --> 4:19:33.800 And ultimately, I think until they give that vision where 4:19:33.840 --> 4:19:36.680 they want to take the country, voters are going to 4:19:36.960 --> 4:19:39.120 not be motivated to vote for them. And I want 4:19:39.120 --> 4:19:41.000 to talk to you about Nevadaterrey because we spent a 4:19:41.040 --> 4:19:42.800 bit there, But before we get to that, I actually 4:19:42.840 --> 4:19:45.640 want to tease out maybe this distinction. That's interesting because 4:19:45.720 --> 4:19:48.080 going into this for the last week or so, the 4:19:48.360 --> 4:19:51.080 legacy media was talking a lot about and we talked 4:19:51.120 --> 4:19:54.600 about it frankly, about how Democrats had not sort of 4:19:54.800 --> 4:19:58.080 come to the right argument when it comes to the economy. 4:19:58.640 --> 4:20:01.480 They did not spend as much on all of these 4:20:01.520 --> 4:20:03.720 other issues as they did on abortion all of the 4:20:03.800 --> 4:20:06.920 other issues combined. Yes, they spent ads enough ad money 4:20:06.960 --> 4:20:09.440 on to overcome how much they spent on abortion, but 4:20:09.480 --> 4:20:12.040 they like they spent way more on abortion than any 4:20:12.080 --> 4:20:14.400 other single issue. Now, I think there's an argument that 4:20:14.480 --> 4:20:16.280 was about turnout, But people like to talk about how 4:20:16.360 --> 4:20:19.200 Democrats this election were obsessed with the culture war and 4:20:19.280 --> 4:20:21.520 that hurt them. I actually don't know that that's going 4:20:21.560 --> 4:20:23.760 to be the case, because midterm elections are about turnout, 4:20:23.840 --> 4:20:27.840 and abortions can motivate the Democratic base. On the flip side, 4:20:27.920 --> 4:20:31.640 Terry tell us about the culture war type ads that 4:20:31.720 --> 4:20:35.440 you guys at American Principles Project have been running, because 4:20:36.240 --> 4:20:39.480 I think personally they're sort of the smart approach the 4:20:39.520 --> 4:20:43.440 smart conservative approach to some of these big questions that frankly, 4:20:43.600 --> 4:20:46.200 you know, the RNC itself should have been on top 4:20:46.240 --> 4:20:48.480 of ten years ago, let alone five years ago. And 4:20:48.600 --> 4:20:50.960 you guys are running on now, what are some of 4:20:51.000 --> 4:20:55.080 the issues that you guys highlighted and do you still 4:20:55.320 --> 4:20:59.600 feel like they could be really consequential as the numbers 4:20:59.640 --> 4:21:03.080 come in. Yeah, So, look, the big things that we 4:21:03.200 --> 4:21:08.880 focused on was protecting children, right, protecting children from gender 4:21:09.000 --> 4:21:12.400 transitions that are being pushed on them by big pharmaceutical 4:21:12.480 --> 4:21:16.000 companies and transgender activists, but also protecting children from being 4:21:16.080 --> 4:21:20.560 sexualized by pornographic materian schools like the book Genderqueer, which 4:21:20.600 --> 4:21:25.440 is a graphic novel that depicts sex between minors, among 4:21:25.560 --> 4:21:29.080 other things, and it freaked out the parents in Dearborn Michigan. 4:21:29.200 --> 4:21:32.880 Even CARE got behind some of those parents that were 4:21:32.920 --> 4:21:35.800 overwhelmingly Muslim in Dearborn Michigan. And again, CARE is not 4:21:35.840 --> 4:21:41.040 a typically a conservative organization on politics American politics. But sorry, 4:21:41.120 --> 4:21:44.000 Terry interrupted you. No, no, no, it's okay. You made 4:21:44.040 --> 4:21:46.640 a very good point. I think it's important to remember 4:21:46.760 --> 4:21:49.960 that just a year ago, right in Virginia in twenty 4:21:50.080 --> 4:21:53.920 twenty one, when the election was about parental rights and education, 4:21:54.080 --> 4:21:58.840 which that is what that election was about. We won handily, right, 4:21:59.280 --> 4:22:04.560 but then Republicans juked that message and for the large part, 4:22:04.800 --> 4:22:07.000 gave up on it and didn't really campaign on it 4:22:07.760 --> 4:22:11.440 and instead focused on Joe Biden's inflation, Joe Biden's economy, 4:22:11.560 --> 4:22:15.640 the crime sprees that are going across the country. That's 4:22:15.720 --> 4:22:18.840 when they began to lose. And so we focused on 4:22:19.200 --> 4:22:22.640 the issues that we knew that Americans were in support 4:22:22.760 --> 4:22:25.720 of a Republican or a conservative message on, which is 4:22:25.800 --> 4:22:29.400 protecting kids from pornography in their own schools, from being sexualized, 4:22:29.440 --> 4:22:34.040 from being groomed, and also from exploitative section procedures that 4:22:34.400 --> 4:22:38.280 you know, doctors and surgeons and pharmaceutic companies are making 4:22:38.320 --> 4:22:39.880 lots of money off of our kids off of so 4:22:40.680 --> 4:22:43.560 you know, those were winning issues. We could produce ads 4:22:43.640 --> 4:22:47.640 with experts like Miriam Grossman, who's a pediatric psychiatrist that's 4:22:47.680 --> 4:22:52.640 been doing this for decades. We told stories from a 4:22:52.800 --> 4:22:57.160 mother in California, Abby Martinez, who you know, lost her 4:22:57.320 --> 4:23:00.560 daughter to transgenderism, right had the daughter ripped from the home. 4:23:01.000 --> 4:23:03.760 The daughter ended up going on to cross sex hormones 4:23:03.800 --> 4:23:06.440 while on foster care, and then shortly after that took 4:23:06.480 --> 4:23:10.280 her life. We were telling persuasive stories on issues that 4:23:10.400 --> 4:23:15.320 we knew the American people were way in a disagreement 4:23:15.440 --> 4:23:19.160 with the Democratic policies. It was really tough to get 4:23:19.200 --> 4:23:22.520 Republicans on side with these. But what we're seeing is 4:23:22.680 --> 4:23:25.800 that the Republicans who really went on offense on these issues, 4:23:26.000 --> 4:23:29.160 like JD Vans, like Rond De Santis, they're winning their 4:23:29.160 --> 4:23:32.600 elections handily. They're getting called very early. And the ones 4:23:32.680 --> 4:23:35.880 that didn't, that didn't go on offense, they're the ones 4:23:35.920 --> 4:23:39.600 that are behind right now. Do you know why do 4:23:39.640 --> 4:23:42.520 you think? You know? If you think that message resident? 4:23:42.960 --> 4:23:46.000 Do you think that Blake Masters didn't do enough of that? 4:23:46.120 --> 4:23:47.560 Do you think Kerry Lake didn't do enough of that? 4:23:48.400 --> 4:23:51.200 Do you think Baldoke didn't do enough of it? Yeah? No, 4:23:51.360 --> 4:23:55.520 look I yeah, no. Oz definitely shied away from all 4:23:55.600 --> 4:23:58.240 of the social issues. Right. I think that Oz was 4:23:58.280 --> 4:24:01.880 an exceptionally poor candidate in Pennsylvania. I think if you 4:24:01.960 --> 4:24:04.960 had any other candidate in that race, it would have 4:24:05.040 --> 4:24:08.440 been locked up at the moment that debate happened with 4:24:08.520 --> 4:24:11.960 John Fetterman, where it was clear that he has suffered 4:24:12.000 --> 4:24:16.200 severe brain trauma and brain damage. But Bulldog did not 4:24:17.040 --> 4:24:20.640 go into or lean into the social issues. Look, we 4:24:20.720 --> 4:24:23.960 still have to see the results come in fully from Arizona. 4:24:24.280 --> 4:24:26.560 That race isn't over yet, and we obviously know that 4:24:26.640 --> 4:24:30.520 there were you know, major problems with delays and problems 4:24:30.560 --> 4:24:33.120 with the election machines and how they were being counted. 4:24:33.440 --> 4:24:36.000 So look, we saw the weight there. But at the 4:24:36.120 --> 4:24:38.680 end of the day, Ron DeSantis I think is the 4:24:38.720 --> 4:24:41.640 big winner today. I mean he's the one that stands 4:24:41.720 --> 4:24:44.360 out as the biggest winner, not just by like my 4:24:44.480 --> 4:24:47.240 own judgment, but literally by the margins that he's won 4:24:47.360 --> 4:24:50.880 his race by. He governed very boldly. He was very 4:24:50.960 --> 4:24:52.840 clear about what he wanted to do and where he 4:24:52.880 --> 4:24:56.840 wanted to take Floridians, And I think ultimately that's the 4:24:56.920 --> 4:24:58.920 big message is that if you want to win your 4:24:59.000 --> 4:25:01.880 campaign's elections, you have to be very clear with what 4:25:02.040 --> 4:25:03.960 you're going to do while in office. And I think 4:25:04.000 --> 4:25:06.200 that of all the candidates that were running the cycle, 4:25:06.600 --> 4:25:09.440 Ron DeSantis was the most clear and painted the biggest 4:25:09.520 --> 4:25:12.200 vision and the clearest vision for what he was going 4:25:12.280 --> 4:25:15.280 to do for voters. So Terry, before before we let 4:25:15.360 --> 4:25:17.480 you go, as of right, now, I imagine you've been 4:25:17.560 --> 4:25:21.040 monitoring the race in Nevada. I mean, I know you've 4:25:21.040 --> 4:25:22.880 been monitoring the race in Nevada because you have money 4:25:22.880 --> 4:25:25.480 on the line there. But what can people expect? There 4:25:25.640 --> 4:25:30.880 was this potential Republican fantasy that Catherine Cortes Maasso might 4:25:30.960 --> 4:25:33.360 go down, and that's that has not been ruled out 4:25:33.440 --> 4:25:36.280 as of right now. What are you looking at in Nevada? 4:25:36.480 --> 4:25:38.800 And you know what were you looking at over the 4:25:38.840 --> 4:25:41.680 course of the past week as well well. Obviously Clark 4:25:41.720 --> 4:25:44.480 County is the most important part of that state. It's 4:25:44.520 --> 4:25:46.880 where the vast majority of the population of best majority 4:25:46.880 --> 4:25:50.560 of voters live. It's going to come down to where 4:25:50.720 --> 4:25:53.120 the early vote was and what the turnout was with that, 4:25:53.320 --> 4:25:57.040 and then what election day turnout was. All day long, 4:25:57.160 --> 4:25:59.480 I was paying attention to John Ralston and what he 4:25:59.600 --> 4:26:02.680 was reported from what he was seeing as election day turnout, 4:26:02.760 --> 4:26:06.480 and frankly, he was pretty dire about this. But ultimately, 4:26:06.600 --> 4:26:09.680 I think what this all comes down to is Democrats 4:26:09.760 --> 4:26:13.000 really have built a turnout machine. Whether you like it 4:26:13.120 --> 4:26:15.560 or not, they do know how to turn out their 4:26:15.680 --> 4:26:18.080 voters and get them to the polls. And I don't 4:26:18.080 --> 4:26:21.200 think Republicans have built anything close to what the Democrats 4:26:21.240 --> 4:26:25.320 have built, and apparently it's effective and it's a very, 4:26:25.520 --> 4:26:30.120 very instrumental in staving off losses. The thing that's frustrating 4:26:30.160 --> 4:26:33.520 for me is you have all of these dynamics in 4:26:33.600 --> 4:26:36.520 a midterm cycle. Right. You have literally a senile president 4:26:36.560 --> 4:26:40.520 who can't put two sentences together. You have record high inflation, 4:26:40.680 --> 4:26:44.440 the economy is terrible for one case, and our stock 4:26:44.600 --> 4:26:47.920 our portfolios are all down. Things aren't that great in 4:26:48.000 --> 4:26:51.040 this country. How the hell did Republicans manage to not 4:26:51.680 --> 4:26:54.600 get a massive Republican wave? I don't know. I think 4:26:54.720 --> 4:26:57.640 ultimately they didn't pas cast a big vision, But I 4:26:57.720 --> 4:27:00.400 also don't think that they've built any type of machine 4:27:00.440 --> 4:27:06.120 that's competitive, competitive with what the Democrats have built. So look, ultimately, this, 4:27:06.360 --> 4:27:08.760 like I said earlier, this is a clarification moment for 4:27:08.880 --> 4:27:12.360 the Republican Party for America where this nation stands, and 4:27:12.440 --> 4:27:15.640 we're gonna have to reassess things going forward. But it's 4:27:15.680 --> 4:27:18.760 still we have a long night ahead of us, for sure. Terry, 4:27:19.120 --> 4:27:24.000 last question, do you think that maybe raging the culture 4:27:24.040 --> 4:27:27.080 war actually backfired on Republicans this time and that that 4:27:27.760 --> 4:27:30.800 if to your point, that the economy is what people 4:27:30.880 --> 4:27:33.160 are actually interested in that they don't want to actually hear, 4:27:34.120 --> 4:27:37.480 you know about all this the culture war stuff. You know, 4:27:37.640 --> 4:27:41.040 I disagree with that. I don't think that, you know, 4:27:41.240 --> 4:27:45.560 opposing sex changes for minors or opposing giving children pornography 4:27:45.600 --> 4:27:48.360 and schools is going to create any type of backlash. 4:27:49.160 --> 4:27:52.320 It's just it doesn't make any sense. And frankly, if 4:27:52.360 --> 4:27:55.760 that is the case, if opposing those two issues is 4:27:55.880 --> 4:27:58.760 going to cause you to lose elections, then America is 4:27:58.880 --> 4:28:02.680 not salvageable in a lot of ways, right. I mean, 4:28:02.760 --> 4:28:05.360 like you have a nation where little children are being given, 4:28:05.560 --> 4:28:08.520 you know, being sexualized in schools and being given section changes, Like, 4:28:08.880 --> 4:28:10.880 how are those people going to vote going up? They're 4:28:10.880 --> 4:28:13.120 definitely not gonna be voting for tax cuts for billionaires 4:28:13.160 --> 4:28:15.240 and major corporations in the future, I'll tell you that. 4:28:16.000 --> 4:28:19.200 But ultimately, I think that what this is is it's 4:28:19.240 --> 4:28:22.520 a lack of leadership in the Republican Party. I think, 4:28:22.680 --> 4:28:24.960 you know, they Kevin McCarthy right in the last few 4:28:24.960 --> 4:28:27.720 weeks of the election, what's he talking about entitlement reform? 4:28:28.200 --> 4:28:31.240 That was not it was just not what this election 4:28:31.400 --> 4:28:34.200 was about. He put gasoline on the fire right. So 4:28:34.320 --> 4:28:36.840 we're talking about, you know, entitlement reform, we're talking about 4:28:36.840 --> 4:28:40.160 cutting spending. I get it, But the economy was on 4:28:40.240 --> 4:28:42.400 the line, inflation was on the line. You had to 4:28:42.480 --> 4:28:46.000 have a real, UH policy proposal that would address the 4:28:46.120 --> 4:28:48.880 major concerns of the American people. And I just don't 4:28:48.880 --> 4:28:52.440 think Republicans met those those concerns. They just thought that 4:28:52.520 --> 4:28:56.040 they would be good enough and and and perform well 4:28:56.160 --> 4:28:58.560 enough just by saying that they weren't show Biden that's 4:28:58.560 --> 4:29:01.480 obviously not the case. Terry. Thanks thanks for your time. 4:29:01.680 --> 4:29:06.760 Appreciate it. Go back to a couple more more updates Terry, 4:29:07.160 --> 4:29:09.400 the American Priscals Project. Thank you so much. Thank you 4:29:09.480 --> 4:29:14.240 so much, Terry. So there was some hope Republicans had 4:29:14.280 --> 4:29:18.680 some hope that PAULA. Page might be competitive. That's yeah, 4:29:20.200 --> 4:29:25.400 he's behind Janet Mills by nine points right now, only 4:29:25.440 --> 4:29:29.000 fifty eight percent in UH. So you know, I need 4:29:29.960 --> 4:29:32.960 not over yet, but it's not not panning out the way. Also, Terry, 4:29:33.360 --> 4:29:36.080 when Terry was the substance aside, when Terry was saying 4:29:37.040 --> 4:29:40.480 that maybe the country's not salvageable, that actually felt that 4:29:40.640 --> 4:29:43.880 sounded to me like the way that some progressives sound 4:29:44.120 --> 4:29:47.160 yes when elections don't go their way well yeah, which 4:29:47.160 --> 4:29:50.160 which is a real sign of how frustrating and how 4:29:50.240 --> 4:29:52.880 disappointing this is to someone the right Well, and I 4:29:52.920 --> 4:29:55.160 think that's the reason we're done with this. I'm going 4:29:55.200 --> 4:29:58.440 to Canada. So Terry is like a graspros conservative activist 4:29:58.520 --> 4:30:01.280 that most of the legacy will not talk to, and 4:30:01.360 --> 4:30:03.240 if they do it's as a freak show, but as 4:30:03.280 --> 4:30:05.840 somebody who's actually very influential has put a lot of 4:30:05.880 --> 4:30:10.080 money into these Republican races in swing states like Nevada, Michigan, Wisconsin, 4:30:10.200 --> 4:30:12.560 where Ron Johnson's actually doing all right as of right now. 4:30:13.560 --> 4:30:15.480 And so it's important, I think, to e gauge the 4:30:15.520 --> 4:30:17.520 temperature of folks that are putting the money right there, 4:30:17.600 --> 4:30:21.120 because that's I think a pretty good indicator of what 4:30:21.440 --> 4:30:24.360 a JD Vance would be looking at on an agenda 4:30:24.760 --> 4:30:29.880 come January, what the battle for Mitch McConnell versus Rick 4:30:29.920 --> 4:30:33.520 Scott looks like come January, and what happens with Blake Masters. 4:30:33.880 --> 4:30:36.240 We saw Terry was wearing a Blake Master's teach shirt. 4:30:37.480 --> 4:30:40.360 Has definitely been involved in that race, and Republicans really 4:30:40.440 --> 4:30:46.200 thought that taking offense. Kerrie Lake multiple times said you know, 4:30:46.240 --> 4:30:49.160 when reporters would ask her about abortions, she said, no, no, 4:30:49.360 --> 4:30:52.840 you need to ask Democrats this question about what restrictions 4:30:52.880 --> 4:30:55.960 they support on abortion. And Republicans had a lot of 4:30:57.520 --> 4:31:00.440 I don't know what the right word is, enthusiasm or 4:31:00.760 --> 4:31:04.120 optimism that some of these candidates who were flipping the 4:31:04.200 --> 4:31:06.960 script in maybe a Trumpian way, and we're willing to 4:31:07.160 --> 4:31:10.440 lean into the culture war in a way that Glenn 4:31:10.560 --> 4:31:14.120 Youngkin pulled off last year in Virginia, that that would 4:31:14.160 --> 4:31:16.200 be the key to a tsunami, not just to a 4:31:16.240 --> 4:31:19.480 good night, but to a tsunami. And so I think 4:31:19.520 --> 4:31:22.360 what we're getting from that interview is that the rights 4:31:22.480 --> 4:31:25.480 grass roots, and Terry's a good gauge of that, the 4:31:25.600 --> 4:31:29.280 rights roots is gonna want more. They're gonna want pedal 4:31:29.360 --> 4:31:32.720 to the metal, as opposed to saying like the Republican 4:31:32.800 --> 4:31:36.880 autopsy in twenty twelve, which was let's back off, let's 4:31:36.960 --> 4:31:39.320 back off of all of these social and cultural issues. 4:31:39.480 --> 4:31:41.520 This was the ranks previous RNC put out the twenty 4:31:41.560 --> 4:31:44.720 twelve autopsy after Romney lost and said we will never 4:31:44.800 --> 4:31:47.360 be winning Hispanic voters if we continue on this track, 4:31:47.440 --> 4:31:50.800 we will never be winning. The sort of emerging Democratic 4:31:50.840 --> 4:31:54.480 coalition is going to be straight in one direction. But 4:31:55.120 --> 4:31:58.160 that you know, it seems like what we're seeing is 4:31:58.280 --> 4:32:02.720 not more of that, but the opposite from the conservative grossrooms. Yeah, 4:32:02.760 --> 4:32:07.320 and instead, in Kansas right now, Laura Kelly, the Democrat, 4:32:08.200 --> 4:32:11.120 is ahead in her re election bid with eighty eight 4:32:11.160 --> 4:32:15.960 percent of the votes in. She's up by four point 4:32:16.040 --> 4:32:20.640 two points. She was considered to be someone who had 4:32:21.240 --> 4:32:24.080 a shot, a good shot at reelection. It wouldn't be 4:32:24.120 --> 4:32:26.600 a total shock that she wins, but for people who 4:32:26.640 --> 4:32:29.240 were from outside of Kansas and went, wait a minute, 4:32:29.240 --> 4:32:31.880 a Democrat is winning a reelection in Kansas. Thought this 4:32:32.040 --> 4:32:34.200 was going to be a I thought there's gonna be 4:32:34.200 --> 4:32:38.640 a red wave. Gretchen Whitmer still up at this point 4:32:38.720 --> 4:32:44.920 by three point four points with forty percent in. Yeah, 4:32:45.840 --> 4:32:50.360 that has narrowed a good bit. What was she up before? 4:32:50.680 --> 4:32:54.960 So you're wayne, Wayne County has eight percent in. Wayne 4:32:55.000 --> 4:33:00.360 County only has eight percent in at this point. So no, 4:33:00.520 --> 4:33:03.960 that's that's a So Gretchen Whitmer was a and is 4:33:04.280 --> 4:33:07.680 I think continues to be a real like if we're 4:33:07.720 --> 4:33:10.320 in a tsunami, That's a good pick up for Republicans 4:33:10.360 --> 4:33:14.520 because Tudor Dixon, from their perspective, ran a good campaign, 4:33:14.720 --> 4:33:18.040 especially in the home stretch. And Gretchen Whitmer I think 4:33:18.200 --> 4:33:20.720 is a bad candidate. I think she really botched her 4:33:20.800 --> 4:33:23.560 COVID response. I think she's been similar to Kathy Hokeel 4:33:23.919 --> 4:33:28.400 and being dismissive of parents' concerns and the same way 4:33:28.440 --> 4:33:32.040 that Hochel has been dismissive of concerns about crime. But 4:33:32.720 --> 4:33:36.480 what but she's still up right now, right there, there 4:33:36.520 --> 4:33:39.040 are a lot of votes that are remaining right Hokel 4:33:39.120 --> 4:33:42.160 was seventy seven percent in still up, is up by 4:33:42.280 --> 4:33:45.919 nine points. Tough to see how Zelden makes that up. 4:33:47.600 --> 4:33:51.360 And another reach that republic Republicans were going for was 4:33:51.400 --> 4:33:54.960 in New Mexico, Michelle Leuhan Grisham was seen as vulnerable, 4:33:55.080 --> 4:33:57.080 like they thought that maybe they could knock her, knock 4:33:57.160 --> 4:34:01.680 her out in a real red wave. A way, how 4:34:01.720 --> 4:34:04.000 many we got in about half a million votes in 4:34:04.160 --> 4:34:07.520 seventy percent of the votes counted. She's up by about 4:34:07.560 --> 4:34:12.000 seven points so far, could still lose. But again, like 4:34:12.440 --> 4:34:16.360 this is where Democrats would prefer to be rather than 4:34:16.800 --> 4:34:19.120 hoping that they can come back. All right, we're getting 4:34:19.160 --> 4:34:24.880 some numbers from Oregon. Yes, this is the race where 4:34:25.440 --> 4:34:29.960 Betsy Johnson, who is the independent Democrat bankrolled by the 4:34:30.080 --> 4:34:33.760 Nike CEO. What a political system. Well this is just wonderful. 4:34:34.040 --> 4:34:37.399 Like Bessy Johnson. By the way, Nike itself bankrolled by China, 4:34:38.240 --> 4:34:41.480 and so Betsy Johnson herself, if she decides to run 4:34:41.600 --> 4:34:43.880 as a third party candidate, it's free country to do 4:34:43.960 --> 4:34:45.640 what you want. She's going to get one or two percent. 4:34:46.200 --> 4:34:48.080 But then a billionaire is like, you know what, I 4:34:48.160 --> 4:34:51.280 think this would be funny and just bankrolls her entire 4:34:51.320 --> 4:34:54.280 campaign and then becomes a credible one. She's doing worse 4:34:54.360 --> 4:35:00.560 so far, at least then Republicans that hope she's at 4:35:00.640 --> 4:35:04.480 nine point. She's at nine percent of the vote, but 4:35:04.560 --> 4:35:07.840 at very close race with fewer than half the votes in, 4:35:07.960 --> 4:35:11.320 just under half the votes in you have the Democrat 4:35:11.360 --> 4:35:13.360 over the Republican by one point. You know, this is 4:35:13.440 --> 4:35:19.199 one This is one that that I think Republicans correct 4:35:19.200 --> 4:35:20.919 me if I'm wrong here, would really love to win 4:35:21.080 --> 4:35:25.320 to show that like Antifa and the Wolkesters out in Oregon, 4:35:25.560 --> 4:35:28.080 you know, really got their got their come up and yeah, 4:35:28.200 --> 4:35:29.920 I mean, and let's look at this right now, the 4:35:30.000 --> 4:35:32.600 Oregon governor's race. It's another one like Gretchen Whitmer, but 4:35:32.759 --> 4:35:35.600 way even more dramatic than Gretcha Whitmer. That Republicans said, 4:35:36.080 --> 4:35:40.320 if if these polls are correct, because there was a 4:35:40.680 --> 4:35:45.880 shocking level of closeness between Kotech and Dresen in the 4:35:45.960 --> 4:35:50.000 remaining days of the race for Oregan's governorship right now 4:35:50.160 --> 4:35:52.719 with forty seven percent of the votes in Oregon has 4:35:52.800 --> 4:35:55.879 not had a Republican governor, mind you, since the nineteen eighties. 4:35:56.280 --> 4:35:58.840 That's forty five point five percent to forty four point 4:35:59.200 --> 4:36:04.720 six percent, So that's within a percentage point in freaking Oregon, 4:36:04.919 --> 4:36:07.120 and we don't know if that stands. I think it's 4:36:07.240 --> 4:36:09.920 it's very possible Dreson ends up losing that by a 4:36:10.000 --> 4:36:12.880 few points. And if that's the case, I mean, I 4:36:12.919 --> 4:36:16.079 think Republicans will still feel okay about it. But if 4:36:16.160 --> 4:36:20.759 Drayson pulls that off, whatever happens in Pennsylvania gets sort 4:36:20.800 --> 4:36:25.880 of counterbalanced by that, and the downstream implications for that are, well, 4:36:25.919 --> 4:36:30.240 then what happens to Mitch McConnell and are the you know, 4:36:30.640 --> 4:36:33.720 do you then need to listen more to the Terry 4:36:33.759 --> 4:36:35.919 Shillings of the world. Do you need to listen? Uh, 4:36:36.440 --> 4:36:39.640 you know, less this becomes a question like, is there 4:36:39.680 --> 4:36:42.120 a real pickup opportunity for Democrats if you have the 4:36:42.200 --> 4:36:45.640 right candidate. And I don't know, I don't have a 4:36:45.680 --> 4:36:48.120 good answer to that. But in Oregon it's still not 4:36:48.480 --> 4:36:52.000 clear cut, and there's no universe in which we should 4:36:52.000 --> 4:36:55.360 be saying. In Oregon it's still a clear cut at 4:36:55.400 --> 4:36:59.120 this point, and so we'll see again. I think it's 4:36:59.160 --> 4:37:03.360 still POSSI that, uh, Jason Lews is probably more likely 4:37:03.440 --> 4:37:05.720 than not. We don't know. It's hard to say, but 4:37:05.800 --> 4:37:10.400 I think that's worth looking at. Uh. Back on back 4:37:10.480 --> 4:37:17.559 in the Senate with Fetterman and Oz Fetterman, with more 4:37:17.600 --> 4:37:20.440 than ninety five percent of the votes in in Erie County, 4:37:20.720 --> 4:37:24.200 has beaten doctor Oz up there fifty three to forty four. 4:37:24.280 --> 4:37:29.080 What's that tell you? I mean this, this shouldn't necessarily 4:37:29.120 --> 4:37:33.240 this shouldn't be Democratic country. Up. This is the very 4:37:33.320 --> 4:37:36.320 northwest tip of the state. This is a very rural area, 4:37:37.960 --> 4:37:41.480 you know, for Trump area. Let's see how did how 4:37:41.520 --> 4:37:45.240 did Trump? Let's see how did Trump vote Erie County? 4:37:46.280 --> 4:37:48.960 Because I think that's the real story here is is 4:37:49.040 --> 4:37:55.160 if Oz is dramatically underperforming Trump. You're getting a good 4:37:55.400 --> 4:37:58.680 kind of answer to this question because again you look 4:37:58.720 --> 4:38:03.440 at DeSantis over performing Trump. But so far there's no 4:38:03.759 --> 4:38:06.919 real clear cut narrative about some of those other candidates. JD. 4:38:07.080 --> 4:38:12.240 Vance did fairly well. But did Erie County go for Biden? 4:38:12.560 --> 4:38:14.960 It looks like it looks like this was a Clinton 4:38:15.000 --> 4:38:20.039 to Trump hol on, let me say so. The other 4:38:20.080 --> 4:38:22.840 thing I'll say is Wisconsin right now. So it was 4:38:22.880 --> 4:38:26.520 sixty eight So the final unofficial results Biden sixty eight thousand, 4:38:26.600 --> 4:38:30.600 Trump sixty six thousand, So it's very tight. And Trump 4:38:30.680 --> 4:38:36.840 had beaten Hillary in twenty sixteen in Erie County and 4:38:36.960 --> 4:38:41.440 so now you but now you have Fetterman winning this 4:38:41.680 --> 4:38:44.880 by twelve thousand. So listen to this. All right. This 4:38:45.040 --> 4:38:46.880 is from Vox, and I want to pick up on 4:38:46.960 --> 4:38:51.200 something that Crystal said last hour, which was really real. 4:38:51.440 --> 4:38:55.320 I thought it was really interesting about and you were 4:38:55.360 --> 4:39:00.000 talking about this as well, just sort of whether Republicans 4:39:00.880 --> 4:39:03.360 and we read the Third Way data about how Republicans 4:39:03.400 --> 4:39:06.480 were generally more trusted on the economy and inflation than Democrats, 4:39:06.520 --> 4:39:09.640 and most people are saying that they they think if 4:39:09.680 --> 4:39:12.840 democrats control Congress, inflation will get worse. That's from the 4:39:13.080 --> 4:39:14.800 Third Way survey that came out in the last week. 4:39:14.840 --> 4:39:18.440 Here from Vox, Republicans have spent one hundred and fifty 4:39:18.480 --> 4:39:20.919 seven million dollars on crime related ads at the national 4:39:21.040 --> 4:39:23.160 level compared to one hundred and five million on the 4:39:23.240 --> 4:39:26.719 economy and inflation, according to data from the ad analysis 4:39:26.800 --> 4:39:30.160 firm Impact ad Impact. So that's one hundred and fifty 4:39:30.200 --> 4:39:33.640 seven million on crime and then one hundred and five 4:39:33.720 --> 4:39:37.520 million on the economy and inflation. Now, Vox continues, the 4:39:37.640 --> 4:39:41.600 breakdown is even starker in the Pennsylvania Senate race, where 4:39:41.640 --> 4:39:45.000 Republicans have spent nearly twelve million dollars on crime ads 4:39:45.360 --> 4:39:49.600 compared to two point five million on the economy and inflation. 4:39:50.400 --> 4:39:55.160 Where this race stands right now, is a potential Fetterman win. Yeah, 4:39:55.960 --> 4:39:59.000 is it? Because so Hillary very narrowly won Erie Counting. 4:39:59.040 --> 4:40:01.600 By the way, I just s against Trump, Biden very 4:40:01.680 --> 4:40:08.360 narrowly wanted. He's and is crushing os in Erie County. 4:40:09.160 --> 4:40:13.199 Another Fetterman person says, quote, we feel fucking good, okay, 4:40:13.400 --> 4:40:15.160 and that they said that to you. Yeah, all right, 4:40:15.240 --> 4:40:17.320 So you have a story from Fetterman saying we feel 4:40:17.320 --> 4:40:19.079 fucking good, which is a big deal right now at 4:40:19.120 --> 4:40:21.640 eleven fifty two, because if the red tsunami prediction was 4:40:21.720 --> 4:40:25.000 panning out right now, if the red wave prediction was 4:40:25.080 --> 4:40:28.080 panning out right now, you just probably wouldn't see that. 4:40:28.160 --> 4:40:30.120 They would not be feeling good. They would not be 4:40:30.200 --> 4:40:33.640 feeling so if we again, like you could still see 4:40:33.880 --> 4:40:36.480 certain places Republicans doing better than people think. We don't 4:40:36.480 --> 4:40:38.079 know what's gonna happen in Arizona. We don't know what's 4:40:38.080 --> 4:40:40.080 gonna happen in Nevada, we don't know what's gonna happen 4:40:40.120 --> 4:40:43.720 in Oregon. That is all very true, But what is 4:40:43.800 --> 4:40:46.080 not true is that we're in some giant wave. And Ryan, 4:40:46.120 --> 4:40:48.399 I want to ask that question to you, did Republicans 4:40:48.440 --> 4:40:52.680 talk too much about crime? Because the conventional Belwegh wisdom 4:40:52.759 --> 4:40:57.919 going into tonight was the Republicans that Democrats talk too 4:40:58.040 --> 4:41:00.920 little about crime. I think I think this is and 4:41:01.040 --> 4:41:03.320 this is going back to something that I've been thinking 4:41:03.360 --> 4:41:06.600 about more that a lot of what we do is 4:41:06.640 --> 4:41:14.600 pointless because you can only shape reality so much. And 4:41:14.759 --> 4:41:19.160 that goes that's messaging, that's media, that's social media, and 4:41:19.240 --> 4:41:22.120 then there is also reality. Now you can shape, you 4:41:22.200 --> 4:41:25.759 can create vibes, you can, you can, you can indeed 4:41:26.000 --> 4:41:29.440 kind of shape vibes, create media, narratives. Media and arrators 4:41:29.480 --> 4:41:32.640 can then you know, work downstream and then affect the 4:41:32.720 --> 4:41:36.440 way that people make decisions. So it's all of these 4:41:36.520 --> 4:41:39.239 things are related, but we talk in the media as 4:41:39.320 --> 4:41:43.000 if that's all that matters. And the reason we talk 4:41:43.040 --> 4:41:44.759 about that is because that's what we can look at. 4:41:45.280 --> 4:41:48.960 It's like that famous joke about the guy who's looking 4:41:49.360 --> 4:41:53.280 the drunken losses keys and is looking underneath the lamppost, 4:41:53.400 --> 4:41:54.560 like is this where he lost He's like, no, I 4:41:54.600 --> 4:41:55.760 lost it on the other side of the street. But 4:41:55.840 --> 4:41:59.680 this is where the light is. And so we look 4:41:59.720 --> 4:42:01.800 where the light is, and the light is. What are 4:42:01.880 --> 4:42:05.919 democrats saying? What are Republicans saying? What are the fundamentals? 4:42:06.480 --> 4:42:08.480 So that's that's where we get to reality when we 4:42:08.560 --> 4:42:11.920 start to talk about fundamentals, and that's important. You know, 4:42:13.040 --> 4:42:15.560 the first midterm of a presidential blah blah blah. Everybody 4:42:15.600 --> 4:42:21.400 knows those fundamentals. But the material reality of two things 4:42:21.480 --> 4:42:28.720 one dobs like democrats talking about not talking about it 4:42:28.840 --> 4:42:32.520 doesn't change the fact that a right that existed for 4:42:32.600 --> 4:42:37.600 fifty years that had widespread support depending on you know, 4:42:38.520 --> 4:42:43.199 depending on how you pull, it was taken away. People 4:42:43.360 --> 4:42:47.040 voted in special elections throughout the summer in ways that 4:42:47.160 --> 4:42:49.760 defied the polls. They voted in Kansas in ways that 4:42:49.800 --> 4:42:51.680 defied the polls. Are voting in Kentucky tonight in the 4:42:51.759 --> 4:42:56.759 ways that defied the polls. And what people talk about 4:42:56.960 --> 4:43:06.320 is important. But people are their own individual individuals moving 4:43:06.600 --> 4:43:10.120 through this world, and they know that the Supreme Court 4:43:11.240 --> 4:43:14.200 overturned Roe v. Wade. They also know that jobs are 4:43:14.240 --> 4:43:18.360 increasing that if they get fired they can probably get 4:43:18.360 --> 4:43:22.920 another job. Although real wages are pretty significant, real wages 4:43:23.040 --> 4:43:26.280 are either flat or up depending If you're a lower 4:43:26.320 --> 4:43:29.360 wage worker, your wages are up. If you're a higher 4:43:29.400 --> 4:43:33.680 wage worker, they're not. If you've jumped, if you've switched jobs, 4:43:33.720 --> 4:43:38.080 your wages are significantly up. But on average, real wages 4:43:38.080 --> 4:43:41.120 are up for the lowest income workers, but down because 4:43:41.160 --> 4:43:45.080 of inflation for the median. You can, but you have 4:43:45.200 --> 4:43:46.559 more power at work, and you can get a job 4:43:46.600 --> 4:43:50.120 if you get fired. People forget the media, forgets how 4:43:50.200 --> 4:43:53.200 much it sucks when unemployment is up at five, six, seven, 4:43:53.280 --> 4:43:56.719 eight nine percent. Absolutely, but maybe real people don't forget 4:43:56.759 --> 4:44:00.440 that and are like, yes, I hate inflation, but I 4:44:00.640 --> 4:44:02.960 like that there are jobs. I like that I have 4:44:03.080 --> 4:44:05.400 more power at work, and I don't necessarily blame Democrats 4:44:05.720 --> 4:44:09.200 only for inflation because Joe Biden just came in. So 4:44:10.560 --> 4:44:14.320 maybe we maybe all the talking about messaging is a 4:44:14.360 --> 4:44:18.360 little bit much, and that actually, like it didn't matter 4:44:18.480 --> 4:44:22.040 that people do not like that Roe v. Wade was overturned. 4:44:23.240 --> 4:44:25.680 People want to People want to come out and vote 4:44:25.720 --> 4:44:29.880 because now for once people can actually, you know, it 4:44:30.120 --> 4:44:34.240 make a difference voting on that. Now here's here's you know, 4:44:34.320 --> 4:44:38.520 here's where they say democracy is on the ballot. Except 4:44:39.720 --> 4:44:43.160 the result of this election, in which the country I 4:44:43.200 --> 4:44:47.240 think pretty thoroughly demonstrated that it supports abortion rights. The 4:44:47.320 --> 4:44:49.440 result is not going to be that the country then 4:44:49.480 --> 4:44:52.199 gets abortion rights back. So democracy might be on the ballot. 4:44:52.320 --> 4:44:55.760 We've got a weird democracy. Meanwhile, and I mentioned this earlier, 4:44:56.680 --> 4:44:58.960 We're probably going to get a giant debate over cutting 4:44:59.000 --> 4:45:03.399 social security and medic here from Biden and House Republicans. 4:45:03.800 --> 4:45:06.080 Nobody ran on that, nobody voted for it. So what 4:45:06.520 --> 4:45:09.840 kind of democracy is that? I actually think this probably 4:45:09.960 --> 4:45:13.160 blunts any discussion of that because you noticed Kevin McCarthy 4:45:13.240 --> 4:45:15.879 only started talking about that, as as Terry pointed out, 4:45:15.960 --> 4:45:18.560 only started talking about that when Republicans really felt like 4:45:18.600 --> 4:45:20.879 they had the win at their backs, and it was like, hey, 4:45:21.360 --> 4:45:23.320 now we can sort of feel good enough, we're going 4:45:23.400 --> 4:45:26.120 to start talking about X, Y and Z. And that's 4:45:26.360 --> 4:45:30.480 that's just not what happened, you know. It's it's like that. 4:45:30.800 --> 4:45:32.720 I don't know. I think this probably feels like a 4:45:32.840 --> 4:45:36.280 rebuke to Republicans who wanted to talk about social security, 4:45:37.040 --> 4:45:40.000 it wanted to talk about entitlements in general. Now that 4:45:40.120 --> 4:45:42.720 remains to be seen, but another slap in the face 4:45:42.800 --> 4:45:47.320 to this, the red title Wave narrative would be looking 4:45:47.360 --> 4:45:50.880 at New York. New York was a pick up that 4:45:51.120 --> 4:45:57.440 felt like tsunami territory. It felt like really tsunami territory. 4:45:57.560 --> 4:46:00.800 Because right here I have the r CDP average. As 4:46:00.960 --> 4:46:06.840 yesterday you had Hokeel up in general. I mean, Hockel 4:46:06.919 --> 4:46:10.160 was was pretty well. Pokel was up seven in the 4:46:10.320 --> 4:46:14.720 RCPA average as of yesterday, and as of right now, 4:46:15.400 --> 4:46:22.919 Hokel is perhaps this right here, Hokel is uh fifty 4:46:23.000 --> 4:46:27.800 four point to Zeldon's forty five point eight percent in 4:46:28.040 --> 4:46:30.520 the New York governor race. That's was seventy nine percent reporting. 4:46:30.640 --> 4:46:33.919 That looks like we're how Sean Patrick doing. I think 4:46:33.960 --> 4:46:36.440 he's not. Oh, he's still down by six points. D 4:46:36.560 --> 4:46:40.360 Triple C chair down by six percentage points. Tell us 4:46:40.360 --> 4:46:43.240 about meaning Republican, tell us more about that. I mean 4:46:43.600 --> 4:46:46.800 so yes. So for people that didn't follow this, So 4:46:46.919 --> 4:46:51.280 Sean Patrick Maloney is the chair chair of the D 4:46:51.440 --> 4:46:55.240 Triple C, which runs the House campaign arm. He used 4:46:55.280 --> 4:46:59.240 to be in district what eighteen or seventeen what, it 4:46:59.280 --> 4:47:00.920 doesn't matter. He would he was in a district to 4:47:01.040 --> 4:47:05.919 the west. A Republican in Pittsburgh redrew all of New 4:47:06.000 --> 4:47:10.520 York's districts. The weirdest thing, Like there's all sorts of 4:47:11.000 --> 4:47:13.200 fun conspiracy theories if you'd go down the rabbit hole 4:47:13.200 --> 4:47:16.360 about what role the Cuomo Worlds was and payback and 4:47:16.440 --> 4:47:20.120 all this nonsense. But anyway, so that in the middle 4:47:20.160 --> 4:47:27.280 of the races, they redraw all of New York's congressional districts. Immediately, 4:47:27.400 --> 4:47:30.040 Sean Patrick Maloney, who's the chair of the Teacherble C, 4:47:30.120 --> 4:47:33.600 announces he's leaving the district he's in, which is which 4:47:33.720 --> 4:47:38.520 was like a deep split district basically to jump into 4:47:38.560 --> 4:47:42.840 a district that's more favorable for him. Only problem it 4:47:43.000 --> 4:47:46.840 was currently occupied by an incumbent Democrat mondere Jones. Is 4:47:46.919 --> 4:47:50.520 that puts mondere Jones in this really difficult situation. Does 4:47:50.560 --> 4:47:52.640 he want to run a primary against the D Triple 4:47:52.680 --> 4:47:55.080 C chair if he wins, what kind of help is 4:47:55.120 --> 4:47:56.520 he going to get from thed Triple CE in the 4:47:56.600 --> 4:48:00.239 general or is he going to find another district run 4:48:00.280 --> 4:48:01.960 and or is he he didn't have to run, or 4:48:02.040 --> 4:48:03.720 is he gonna, you know, step down and go work 4:48:03.759 --> 4:48:05.120 with the DOJ for a couple of years and then 4:48:05.160 --> 4:48:10.360 come back. So he looked at Jamal Bowman's district, which 4:48:10.440 --> 4:48:12.960 was just just to the south. His team did polling 4:48:13.000 --> 4:48:15.120 of that district. Then we're stunned to find how popular 4:48:15.240 --> 4:48:18.600 Jamal Bowman was. Paul Bowman ended up winning his primary 4:48:18.600 --> 4:48:22.759 and a landside went one tonight in a landside, Richie 4:48:22.840 --> 4:48:24.960 Torres sent out a signal, you don't don't come up, 4:48:25.000 --> 4:48:28.200 don't don't come over here, Jamal Bowman yep. So so 4:48:28.720 --> 4:48:30.400 then he looks around. He goes to Manhattan and he 4:48:30.480 --> 4:48:33.040 runs in New York's tenth district, which represents Manhattan. So 4:48:33.160 --> 4:48:36.919 Mande Jones loses there, so he's heading out of Congress. 4:48:37.720 --> 4:48:40.040 Also that Jean Patrick Maloney can get an easier seat, 4:48:40.400 --> 4:48:43.840 and now he's it looks like he's losing that man 4:48:43.960 --> 4:48:46.080 maybe so maybe now mandere Jones goes back to that 4:48:46.160 --> 4:48:49.280 district and runs in twenty twenty four. Right, So, Ryan, 4:48:49.840 --> 4:48:53.160 how do you explain that you wanted to represent Manhattan? Oh? 4:48:53.320 --> 4:48:57.079 Good God? So Ryan and I could keep going here 4:48:57.400 --> 4:49:00.720 all night. Actually we would if not, so Sager, until 4:49:00.800 --> 4:49:03.240 Saga rolled in. Yeah, Soccer would come in and he 4:49:03.320 --> 4:49:05.280 would have water, and he'd be looking up at the 4:49:05.320 --> 4:49:06.920 sun and have all the energy in the world. And 4:49:07.240 --> 4:49:09.400 and and Ryan and I woke up this morning and 4:49:09.480 --> 4:49:15.000 chose the violence in terms of our liquids. Yeah, heady 4:49:15.040 --> 4:49:17.919 topper smuggled in from Vermont. That's right, and it will. 4:49:18.200 --> 4:49:20.520 My dad texted, he said, stop cursing. I'm just quoting 4:49:20.720 --> 4:49:24.680 your dad's I'm just quoting what people are telling me. Yeah, 4:49:25.040 --> 4:49:27.360 I'm not gonna I'm not gonna suppress. Why would you 4:49:27.520 --> 4:49:32.360 dad shoot the messengers as a sensor? Yeah, tell them, Yeah, no, 4:49:32.480 --> 4:49:34.440 I I this is not this is not water. It's 4:49:34.560 --> 4:49:39.840 it's well, it's it's wine. But all that said, we 4:49:39.919 --> 4:49:42.600 could keep going here, but the team needs to get 4:49:42.680 --> 4:49:45.560 up by point, right by point. The crew has to 4:49:45.600 --> 4:49:47.240 get up for tomorrow. Yeah, right, the crew has so 4:49:47.360 --> 4:49:49.520 do you guys. You guys probably work tomorrow, but Soccer 4:49:49.520 --> 4:49:52.680 and Crystal are coming in early to get results out 4:49:52.720 --> 4:49:54.520 to you guys right away. And frankly, I think that 4:49:54.600 --> 4:49:58.400 makes the most sense because Philadelphia right now announced just 4:49:58.720 --> 4:50:00.919 in the last couple of days that it was going 4:50:01.000 --> 4:50:03.360 to be really hard for them to get any vote 4:50:03.560 --> 4:50:06.480 clarity on what happened in photo Republicans the well, but 4:50:06.720 --> 4:50:09.040 Republicans sue them because of the mass influx of mail 4:50:09.080 --> 4:50:10.600 and bouts, which I forgot to say earlier when you 4:50:10.640 --> 4:50:13.960 were making that point there we are seeing historically like 4:50:14.080 --> 4:50:18.760 unprecedented levels of mail in ballots. Still, people like to vote. 4:50:19.040 --> 4:50:22.759 People like to vote. So that said, I actually think 4:50:22.759 --> 4:50:24.600 that makes a lot of sense because there's only so 4:50:24.720 --> 4:50:26.840 much we can do. We can't talk about Rick Caruso 4:50:27.120 --> 4:50:30.680 in the LA Mayor's race, which is if Republicans want 4:50:30.720 --> 4:50:34.640 to feel good about a so called realignment, the message 4:50:34.720 --> 4:50:37.680 might not be as we're wrapping up right now, Ryan, 4:50:38.120 --> 4:50:40.440 the message Republicans I think wanted to take from this 4:50:41.000 --> 4:50:44.280 was a MAGA message, was that the realignment was going 4:50:44.400 --> 4:50:48.120 to come on the back of the Maga movement, And 4:50:48.360 --> 4:50:50.800 the message that they might be getting, in fact, is 4:50:50.880 --> 4:50:55.759 that the realignment that's going to help them with Hispanic voters, 4:50:56.120 --> 4:50:59.800 with Cuban voters and Mexican voters, with Black voters and 4:51:00.080 --> 4:51:04.239 Cuban voters might not be a Maga message, but might 4:51:04.320 --> 4:51:08.000 be something actually that is completely different, that is independent 4:51:08.400 --> 4:51:13.440 in its feeling and not tied specifically to Donald Trump, 4:51:13.880 --> 4:51:16.920 who is his flirting with whether or not he would 4:51:16.960 --> 4:51:19.960 run in the last few days felt like a potential 4:51:20.120 --> 4:51:23.720 turnout mechanism for Republicans because he's popular with some, you know, 4:51:24.000 --> 4:51:26.320 really hardcore trunk of like thirty percent of the base 4:51:26.400 --> 4:51:28.600 that love Donald Trump, and there are a lot of 4:51:28.640 --> 4:51:31.080 Trump voters who love Donald Trump more than a Republican party. 4:51:31.120 --> 4:51:32.640 I think it's even more than half if you look 4:51:32.680 --> 4:51:36.720 at the numbers. But whether or not that translates into 4:51:36.800 --> 4:51:41.680 electoral victories outside of Republican strongholds means Republicans might need 4:51:41.800 --> 4:51:46.960 more Glenn youngkins than they do Maga cannon. Although Mayra 4:51:47.000 --> 4:51:49.080 Flores was at Glenn Young Canada, she was one of 4:51:49.160 --> 4:51:51.880 your Bellwethers. So update on that ninety two percent of 4:51:51.919 --> 4:51:53.720 the votes in and she's down by nine. I was 4:51:53.720 --> 4:51:55.680 actually going to say the opposite. She's she's not a 4:51:55.759 --> 4:51:59.880 Glen Yunkin candidate. She's a maga candidate. She's pretty hard maga. 4:52:00.720 --> 4:52:05.719 She she's very much Trump candidate. And Lauren Bobert, by 4:52:05.720 --> 4:52:07.760 the way, it might be headed to a surprise loss 4:52:08.200 --> 4:52:11.600 in Colorado, which nobody saw coming a very magic candidate. 4:52:11.800 --> 4:52:14.520 She's still down for. She's down for. Okay, Times calls 4:52:14.560 --> 4:52:17.320 her likely Republican. But she's still down for with seventy 4:52:17.360 --> 4:52:20.520 five percent, So the margin is narrowing. Okay, so that 4:52:20.600 --> 4:52:23.360 could easily flip. But if she's in a close race, 4:52:23.640 --> 4:52:26.080 I mean, that could still prove the point. We don't 4:52:26.120 --> 4:52:28.320 know yet. And again that's why Sager Crysler coenim right 4:52:28.400 --> 4:52:32.120 and early. But the point remains, I'll stop looking. Yeah, 4:52:32.120 --> 4:52:35.160 that's a good idea. The point remains that like this 4:52:35.280 --> 4:52:38.720 could be going in a direction that's like okay for 4:52:38.840 --> 4:52:42.759 Republicans and okay for Democrats, and okay for Democrats. It's 4:52:43.000 --> 4:52:46.800 better than expected for Democrats and okay for Republicans. Is 4:52:46.960 --> 4:52:50.000 worse than expected for Republicans if you really need to 4:52:50.040 --> 4:52:52.360 fix I've been doing a live chat which I've been 4:52:52.400 --> 4:52:55.320 neglecting on my substack, which is called called bad News. 4:52:55.400 --> 4:52:58.280 Tell us what Ken did? Oh yeah, so my substack 4:52:58.400 --> 4:53:00.520 is called bad News. Ken's I forget what his is called, 4:53:00.560 --> 4:53:05.280 but probably just Ken Clippenstein. So I's tried out this 4:53:05.400 --> 4:53:10.040 chat functions live chat that's going on right now, and 4:53:10.840 --> 4:53:13.480 Ken kept jumping in there and posting links to his 4:53:13.600 --> 4:53:16.640 own newsletter in my live chat, which is great. Everybody 4:53:16.680 --> 4:53:19.600 sign up for Ken clippin Stein's newsletter. I'm all for that. Yeah. 4:53:19.680 --> 4:53:21.360 So as I head out of here, I'll go back 4:53:21.360 --> 4:53:25.160 into that live chat. That's bad News on substack. Emily, 4:53:25.280 --> 4:53:28.560 it's been it's been fun. And I guess we will 4:53:28.640 --> 4:53:31.040 see you. We'll see you on Thursday and here you 4:53:31.040 --> 4:53:34.000 guys will see Soger and Crystal tomorrow morning. That's right. 4:53:34.040 --> 4:53:37.280 You have full breaking points coverage all week because it's 4:53:37.320 --> 4:53:40.960 election week obviously. And Crystal ended there sort of part 4:53:41.000 --> 4:53:45.200 of the broadcast tonight just by thanking premium subscribers. Yeah, 4:53:45.200 --> 4:53:47.519 the crew was telling us that a bunch of subscriptions 4:53:47.560 --> 4:53:50.600 were coming in tonight. That's what makes this possible. That's 4:53:50.600 --> 4:53:53.960 what makes having people on the road possible. That's what 4:53:54.080 --> 4:53:57.240 makes bringing Status Kup and Jordan Charrisan's reporters from the 4:53:57.280 --> 4:54:01.000 ground in. So thank you for doing that. Keep those 4:54:01.080 --> 4:54:03.480 subscriptions coming in so we can keep growing. So we've 4:54:03.480 --> 4:54:06.360 got a presidential election coming up. All we can say 4:54:06.440 --> 4:54:08.559 is thank you, We appreciate it so much, and Soccer 4:54:08.560 --> 4:54:11.280 and Crystal will be back here with you all tomorrow morning. 4:54:11.640 --> 4:54:13.440 That's the right call because a lot of the stuff, 4:54:13.600 --> 4:54:15.840 you know, it's going to be morning until we have 4:54:15.960 --> 4:54:18.200 concrete answers. So thank you to everybody for tuning in. 4:54:18.520 --> 4:54:21.079 They'll see you back here bright and early. Get some sleep.