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Speaker 1: Good evening, everybody. Welcome to our election live stream. We

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Speaker 1: have an amazing show for all of you today, as

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Speaker 1: you can all see. I hope this is working, Crystal.

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Speaker 1: So what do we have today? Indeed, we do a

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Speaker 1: few things to talk about. There will be results, of course,

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Speaker 1: coming in all night. We'll be doing our analysis here

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Speaker 1: with Marshall and with Kyle. We have the Counterpoints crew,

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Speaker 1: Ryan and Emily coming in later. So we're very excited

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Speaker 1: about that. We have reporters on the ground from Status KUP,

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Speaker 1: both with Team Oz in Pennsylvania and also with Team

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Speaker 1: Fetterman in Pennsylvania. We've got great election like data geek

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Speaker 1: analysis from j Miles Coleman later on. So we'll be

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Speaker 1: tracking all of those things and more. Before we get

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Speaker 1: to any of that, though, I have the biggest announcement

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Speaker 1: of the night, which is that for those of you

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Speaker 1: watching this live stream, handing out a little bit of

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Speaker 1: a discount. That's right, premium subscription. We've got the ten

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Speaker 1: percent off on the premium subscription. It's the last time

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Speaker 1: you'll hear it, I promise. Listen, guys, this is all

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Speaker 1: made possible because of our premium subs, many of whom

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Speaker 1: are watching right now, what christ will just describe people

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Speaker 1: on the ground having our full control room back there,

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Speaker 1: Marshall Kyle, the Counterpoints crew. It costs a lot of

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Speaker 1: money and so as we gear up not only for

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Speaker 1: this but for the future and given the imminent possible

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Speaker 1: Trump announcement, if you can help us build up, it's

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Speaker 1: really really helps us out so much. There's a link

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Speaker 1: in the chat and also in the description of this

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Speaker 1: video ten percent off on the annual which just helps

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Speaker 1: us so much in terms of planning. So thank you

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Speaker 1: all so much to the existing ones who are watching,

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Speaker 1: and the link is there for those of you have

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Speaker 1: the kindness in your hearts. But with that, why don't

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Speaker 1: we kick it off? What do we know? All right?

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Speaker 1: So first we are already getting some results out of

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Speaker 1: Indiana and Kentucky. Their polls closed at six There aren't

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Speaker 1: really many competitive races there, so there isn't a lot

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Speaker 1: to read into those results just yet. But right now

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Speaker 1: seven pm, there are some key states that's polls whose

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Speaker 1: polls just closed, including Georgia. Also Virginia which does have

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Speaker 1: doesn't have any state wide races, but does have some

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Speaker 1: like key bell Weather races, including the district that Kyle

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Speaker 1: and I live in at this point, so Abigail Spanberger

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Speaker 1: that one. So we'll be keeping a close eye there.

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Speaker 1: Seven thirty we get all of North Carolina, Ohio, West Virginia,

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Speaker 1: parts of New Hampshire, so you can see right away

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Speaker 1: we'll be starting to get some election results in that

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Speaker 1: will start to tell us what the night is going

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Speaker 1: to look like. Eight PM you get a whole slew

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Speaker 1: of states, including Florida, including Pennsylvania is At eight, you've

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Speaker 1: got Texas. At eight you've got New Jersey, Kansas, and Michigan,

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Speaker 1: a whole lot others also closing at eight. Then at

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Speaker 1: eight thirty you get all of Arkansas. I know a

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Speaker 1: lot of folks out there really waiting on those Arkansas

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Speaker 1: results with baited breath. Nine PM, no offense, Arkansas, lovely

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Speaker 1: staying from nine pm. We got Colorado, we got Io,

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Speaker 1: we got Kansas, Louisiana, Michigan comes in at nine, New York,

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Speaker 1: which Democrats have ended up being surprisingly kind of nervous about. Wisconsin,

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Speaker 1: and some of Arizona we start to get at nine,

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Speaker 1: and at ten we get all of Arizona, all of Nevada,

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Speaker 1: and a few other states. Oregon starts to come in

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Speaker 1: then as well, and then we go on from there,

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Speaker 1: so you can see we're getting key results throughout the night.

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Speaker 1: I think it's important to put in the warning that

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Speaker 1: there have already been results of some problems in Arizona, Pennsylvania.

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Speaker 1: I think, in particular, we expect the results to be

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Speaker 1: relatively slow going. You might have an effect in some

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Speaker 1: of these states same as we did in twenty twenty

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Speaker 1: where you have like the red mirage because you now

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Speaker 1: have such a partisan divide in terms of how voters

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Speaker 1: cast their ballots. So if the election day votes are

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Speaker 1: counted first, you may see a huge red wave that

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Speaker 1: then Democrats sort of eat into. You might see the reverse.

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Speaker 1: You might see the mail in ballots come in first,

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Speaker 1: in which case you might have a huge Democratic margin.

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Speaker 1: So I would just say, you know, hold tight, wait

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Speaker 1: until the results all come in, and we will see

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Speaker 1: where this all ends out. Yeah, I just want to

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Speaker 1: reiterate that Pennsylvania, in particular, they've already come out of

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Speaker 1: the Secretary of State said we likely will not the

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Speaker 1: results for a couple of days, which is kind of

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Speaker 1: crazy if you ask me the same thing. In Arizona,

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Speaker 1: they were saying around Arizona for Nevada as well. Also,

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Speaker 1: I should remind people I actually didn't even know this.

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Speaker 1: We were doing research, which is that the Red states

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Speaker 1: in the Midwest, or the Purple States, if you will,

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Speaker 1: many of them have enacted loss Crystal where the early

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Speaker 1: vote is not actually allowed to be counted until today, right,

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Speaker 1: and so even though many of those votes and ballots

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Speaker 1: are banked, they're not allowed to count them, which would

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Speaker 1: lead to the so called reg mirage phenomenal the year,

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Speaker 1: same deal in twenty twenty as we had then, and

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Speaker 1: we went through an excruciating detail which states had which laws,

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Speaker 1: but just suffice it to say some of the key

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Speaker 1: states have that similar dynamic going on. Okay, So Soger

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Speaker 1: and I on the show yesterday we gave you kind

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Speaker 1: of our analysis of what we think is going to happen.

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Speaker 1: So I thought we could check in with our friends

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Speaker 1: here Cala Marshall find out what you guys think for

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Speaker 1: the night. Marshall, since i'm you know, buiased towards this one,

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Speaker 1: I'll go ahead and kick it off to you. What

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Speaker 1: is your overall expectation. I think we all probably expect

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Speaker 1: Republicans to take the House do you think do you

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Speaker 1: think it's a huge margin. Do you think this is

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Speaker 1: like red tsunami situation, red waves situation, or do Democrats

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Speaker 1: somehow manage to cobble together their control of the Senate.

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Speaker 1: I'm not a big ocean guy, but yeah, whatever, A

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Speaker 1: moderate tsunami is tywhoon. Yeah, moderate red tsunami. The take

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Speaker 1: it's going to be a little less hardcore than our

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Speaker 1: friends on like conservative Twitter are saying, yeah, but it's

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Speaker 1: still going to be a really devastating the term. Yeah, yeah,

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Speaker 1: what do you think? I mean, I kind of agree

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Speaker 1: with Marshall. I will say that coming into this election

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Speaker 1: it was weird because this was the first election where

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Speaker 1: I really felt like I had zero intuition about which

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Speaker 1: way it was going to go. I remember back in

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Speaker 1: twenty sixteen, I was one of the people who was

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Speaker 1: kind of sounding the alarm when it was clear there

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Speaker 1: was going to be Hillary versus Trump, because I felt

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Speaker 1: like he could kind of hammer away on all of

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Speaker 1: her weaknesses effectively. But in this race, there's just so

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Speaker 1: many variables that I keep bouncing around in my head.

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Speaker 1: On the one hand, you think, look inflation, inflation, inflation, crime, crime, crime,

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Speaker 1: all the Republicans have to do is repeat that until

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Speaker 1: the end of time, and then you know, effectively they

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Speaker 1: could win. But then on the other hand, Roe versus

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Speaker 1: WAD was overturned, and that's like a that's a huge deal.

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Speaker 1: And you know, you also have, I think this pretty

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Speaker 1: open extremism on the right that's different from previous iterations

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Speaker 1: on the right because about fifty three percent of the

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Speaker 1: Republican candidates either deny or question the election, and I

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Speaker 1: think that might actually weigh on voters. And then you

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Speaker 1: also have what I think are some pretty significant accomplishments

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Speaker 1: from the Body administration from my perspective in terms of

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Speaker 1: my ideology, because you have student loan debt reduction, partnering

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Speaker 1: non violent weed defenders. You have the IRA, which, granted,

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Speaker 1: even though I think it was a weak piece of

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Speaker 1: legislation overall compared to build back better, you still had

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Speaker 1: some great provisions in that like fifteen percent corporate minimum

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Speaker 1: tax rate, one percent tax on stock buybacks, billions dollars

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Speaker 1: more for Obamacare, which will give millions more Americans health care.

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Speaker 1: So you have this like amalgamation of factors which just

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Speaker 1: makes it a big question mark. So I kind of

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Speaker 1: agree with Marshall that ultimately, if he had a gun

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Speaker 1: to my head and said you have to pick something,

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Speaker 1: you can't be agnostic when I want to be agnostic.

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Speaker 1: But what I would say is probably Republicans fifty one

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Speaker 1: or fifty two seats in the Senate, and they're going

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Speaker 1: to take the House, but it's not going to be

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Speaker 1: as big as like the twenty ten Tea Party wave.

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Speaker 1: So Amy Walter over at cook Political actually had a

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Speaker 1: good in terms of the like wave terminology. She had

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Speaker 1: a good way of breaking down the three possibilities for

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Speaker 1: the night. So one, she said, the red tsunami, which

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Speaker 1: is like Republicans sweep all of the toss up races,

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Speaker 1: there's a huge wave in the house. You know, they

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Speaker 1: gain control of the Senate quite handily, talking about something

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Speaker 1: like twenty ten, right analogous to twenty ten or two

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Speaker 1: thousand and six for the Democrats. The next would be

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Speaker 1: what she called wavy or maybe like wavesh which is

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Speaker 1: sort of the scenario that I think you guys are

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Speaker 1: laying out and that I also sort of envision, which

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Speaker 1: is the Republicans take control of the Senate, but it's

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Speaker 1: sort of like just barely. They have essentially matched or

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Speaker 1: maybe a little bit of an enthusiasm edge over the

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Speaker 1: Democrats and Independence break their way, but it's not overwhelming.

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Speaker 1: And then you fall in that mark of like maybe

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Speaker 1: twenty to thirty seats in terms of the House, and

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Speaker 1: then you have the red ripple, which is like the

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Speaker 1: House margins are really held down. They aren't able ultimately

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Speaker 1: to take the Senate, or it's very close, or it's

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Speaker 1: fifty to fifty again, or it comes down to a

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Speaker 1: runoff in Georgia, which I also think is definitely a possibility.

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Speaker 1: So I think those are like the realistic possibilities that

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Speaker 1: are kind of on the table at this point. So

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Speaker 1: we will read the tea leaves even though you're not

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Speaker 1: supposed to, and just let me. Let me also just

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Speaker 1: before I read. These exit polls oftentimes mean absolutely nothing.

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Speaker 1: They can be inaccurate. They are also all that we

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Speaker 1: have at this moment. Okay, so what do we have?

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Speaker 1: And we were all looking at this it's a little

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Speaker 1: bit interesting. So this is from the CNN exit poles.

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Speaker 1: Here's what they say, feeling the way that things are

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Speaker 1: going in the United States. Enthusiastic five percent, satisfied, percent dissatisfied,

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Speaker 1: thirty nine percent, angry thirty four percent. What is your

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Speaker 1: opinion of Joe Biden as president? This is surprising, Crystal

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Speaker 1: Approve forty five percent, disapprove fifty four percent. That is

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Speaker 1: much higher approval rating. That's actually for a long time

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Speaker 1: not bad, yep. I mean, you know, if you're president

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Speaker 1: of the United States and you're going into the midterms,

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Speaker 1: you never want to see your approval rating underwater. But

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Speaker 1: forty five percent is on the higher end of what

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Speaker 1: he's been getting. You know, it tells you at least

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Speaker 1: in the composition of this exit pole, which again you

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Speaker 1: should take with like a million grains of salt and

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Speaker 1: basically discard entirely, but at least in the composition of

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Speaker 1: this exit pole, they're slightly more favorable to him than

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Speaker 1: what poles have been showing recently. And we also have

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Speaker 1: seen a pretty consistent trend of the Democratic Senate candidates

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Speaker 1: out running Joe Biden. Not so much because I mean

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Speaker 1: some of them I do think genuinely are good candidates.

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Speaker 1: Mark Kelly I would put in that category. I think

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Speaker 1: Warnock I would put in that category as well. Fetterman

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Speaker 1: I put in that category until he had a stroke.

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Speaker 1: But also because the Republicans nominated a bunch of psychos

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Speaker 1: that has caused, you know, some problems for them on

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Speaker 1: the other side. So I think that's why Democrats at

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Speaker 1: the Senate level have kind of consistently outperformed Biden's approval ratings.

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Speaker 1: So when you see him at forty five percent, if

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Speaker 1: that was accurate, which is like again a gigantic, gigantic,

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Speaker 1: if that's word, is doing a lot of work there,

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Speaker 1: then if your Democrats are going, Okay, we're in the ballgame.

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Speaker 1: We got a shot, right, And I think, actually, I'll

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Speaker 1: kick it to Marshall and to Kyle on this one.

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Speaker 1: This is I found absolutely fascinating. Was your us hout

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Speaker 1: vote to quote support Biden eighteen percent, oppose Biden thirty

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Speaker 1: two percent, Biden not a factor forty eight percent. And

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Speaker 1: this also impacts one, which is that the effect of

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Speaker 1: Biden's policies on the country hurting forty six, helping thirty six,

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Speaker 1: not making a difference sixteen Did any of those numbers

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Speaker 1: stick out to you? For me? It was Biden not

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Speaker 1: a factor. What do you think, Marshall? Biden not a factor?

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Speaker 1: And I think to Crystal what you were saying about

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Speaker 1: how Biden's polls are decent actually for a president in

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Speaker 1: this period. I think they're a little better than what

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Speaker 1: Trump's were yes during the twenty eighteen mid terms. This

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Speaker 1: gets at the difficult of trying to read too much

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Speaker 1: into these election results for twenty twenty four. The second

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Speaker 1: it becomes personal, that is going to scramble and this

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Speaker 1: doesn't feel personal right now out of a repudiation level,

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Speaker 1: if you're looking at these houses and candidates, I wanted

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Speaker 1: to pick up one thing, Kyle, you said, that's interesting

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Speaker 1: here why it's hard to get a big narrative about

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Speaker 1: this election, the democracy, the election integrity claims, like the

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Speaker 1: races where it's making an effect or not like Pennsylvania,

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Speaker 1: Doug Mastrigano, he's probably going to lose tonight because he's

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Speaker 1: seen as an extreme because he is an extremist. It's

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Speaker 1: not just like a perception. I think it's actually extreme

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Speaker 1: on election denial issues. But Carrie Lake Arizona, if she

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Speaker 1: at the same time, is not being punished for it.

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Speaker 1: So I'm interested in not just like dunking on people

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Speaker 1: saying like, oh, why are you talking about democracies so much?

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Speaker 1: Why does it work in certain races? And not in others.

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Speaker 1: I'm curious, like if you have a theory for that, Kyle.

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Speaker 1: I don't have a theory for that. But I also

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Speaker 1: find it fascinating, like you do, Crystal. You bring something

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Speaker 1: up all the time that I think is really interesting,

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Speaker 1: which is what our voter is going to prioritize, like

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Speaker 1: you aading individual candidates or just like the national mood,

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Speaker 1: because in this instance, those things are totally at odds,

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Speaker 1: they are completely contradictory. If you go like individual candidates,

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Speaker 1: you're going to look at the carry Lakes, You're going

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Speaker 1: to look at the Mastriano's, You're going to look at

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Speaker 1: look even odds, I would argue, and you're going to

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Speaker 1: be like, oh, I don't like that. But if you

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Speaker 1: just go national mood, I mean historically, and I actually

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Speaker 1: have the numbers up here, I wanted to share this

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Speaker 1: with you guys. Historically, it is the case that, at

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Speaker 1: least in recent American history, it is the case that

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Speaker 1: you have these backlash pendulum elections. So in nineteen ninety four,

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Speaker 1: Bill Clinton had a forty four percent approval rating, which

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Speaker 1: by the way, is the exact same approve rating Biden

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Speaker 1: has today. In the average of polls, he lost fifty

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Speaker 1: four seats ye had Barack Obama had a forty five

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Speaker 1: percent approval rating, he lost sixty three seats in twenty ten.

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Speaker 1: And then of course twenty eighteen, Trump had a forty

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Speaker 1: six percent approval rating and he lost forty seats. So

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Speaker 1: we're seeing Biden with a forty four percent approval rating.

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Speaker 1: Is he going to lose as many as Bill Clinton

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Speaker 1: did have the exact same approval rating or is it

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Speaker 1: going to be less. Part of why it could be

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Speaker 1: less could is because you know, I was actually on

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Speaker 1: the ballot in twenty ten running a hopeless campaign as

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Speaker 1: a Democrat for Congress and very conservative area in like

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Speaker 1: the Tea Party wave year, and so I remember it

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Speaker 1: quite well. And it wasn't just that Republicans were super energized,

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Speaker 1: and they were. It was also that Dems were depressed.

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Speaker 1: You know, they had so much hope for the Obama era,

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Speaker 1: and they had so much you know, they really believed

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Speaker 1: in the sky, and they really thought that things were

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Speaker 1: going to change in the country, was going to be transformed,

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Speaker 1: it was going to be this whole thing. And then

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Speaker 1: when he's a disappointment, and you know, the dreams didn't

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Speaker 1: all come true. There was a huge depression in terms

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Speaker 1: of the Democratic vote. Democrats are very highly motivated. I

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Speaker 1: mean Republicans might be more motivated, and I think independence

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Speaker 1: seemed to at least in the most recent polls have

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Speaker 1: swung towards Republicans for a variety of issues. I would

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Speaker 1: lay that, you know, primarily in terms of the economy,

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Speaker 1: but I think crime has been a part of that

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Speaker 1: as well. But you do have perhaps a match in

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Speaker 1: terms of Democratic enthusiasm Republican enthusiasm. That's why I don't

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Speaker 1: know that it'll be the blowout tsunami wave that you

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Speaker 1: saw in You're like twenty ten. I'll tell you another

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Speaker 1: thing that I was thinking about today in terms of

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Speaker 1: what you were just saying, Kyle, and like the candidate

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Speaker 1: quality question versus the national mood question. To me, the

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Speaker 1: House races are almost one hundred percent just national mood. Absolutely,

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Speaker 1: people don't really pay attention to the congressional candidates. There's

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Speaker 1: not enough ad spending, Like you don't really know the

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Speaker 1: ins and outs of who they are and whether you

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Speaker 1: like them or not, and what they've done or what

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Speaker 1: they want to do. That to me is almost completely

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Speaker 1: just national mood. At the Senate level, you get a

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Speaker 1: little bit more of a sense of these people as

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Speaker 1: characters and as individuals, And so I could see a

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Speaker 1: scenario where it really is kind of a democratic blood

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Speaker 1: bath in the House, and yet it's not quite as

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Speaker 1: ugly a picture for them in the Senate. And that

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Speaker 1: really is again less attestament, I think, to any sort

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Speaker 1: of democratic messaging or strategy or whatever. But the fact

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Speaker 1: that Republicans have really, you know, tested the willingness of

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Speaker 1: voters to see how far they will go. And there

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Speaker 1: were some numbers out of Georgia Soccer, I don't know

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Speaker 1: if you have them in front of you, exit poll

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Speaker 1: numbers asking voters what they thought of herschel Walker versus

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Speaker 1: Rafael Warnock, and they asked in particular like who shows

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Speaker 1: good judgment? And it was overwhelmingly like people felt like

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Speaker 1: Warnock had much better judgment than herschel Walker does. So

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Speaker 1: clearly there has been an assessment of their character. Now

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Speaker 1: is that determinant of their vote? Nobody knows, But I

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Speaker 1: can see the candidate quality piece being at least somewhat

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Speaker 1: more significant at the Senate level than it is at

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Speaker 1: the House lode. To me, this is the ultimate test

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Speaker 1: of that political science study which had about a decade ago,

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Speaker 1: which is does political quality? Does candidate quality matter at all?

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Speaker 1: And in general overwhelmingly people continue to tell us no. Now,

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Speaker 1: as Ryan very aptly pointed out on the show, we

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Speaker 1: have never had the candidates that we had of this

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Speaker 1: titan special sort. It's a true testry. So what you

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Speaker 1: alluded to, I have it in front of me. Who

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Speaker 1: shows good judgment? For again, exit polls taken with a

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Speaker 1: massive grain of solid don't if it's true or not,

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Speaker 1: but it's all we got. Only Warnock forty six percent

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Speaker 1: shows good judgment. Only Walker shows good judgment twenty eight percent,

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Speaker 1: both at five neither at eighteen. Another I think interesting one.

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Speaker 1: You know in that regard around Georgia is around the

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Speaker 1: extreme is an issue. They're like, do you think that

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Speaker 1: Herschel Walker is extreme or not? And in that one,

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Speaker 1: I mean you didn't see. Sorry, it was fairly close.

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Speaker 1: It was like in front of me Warnock had actually

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Speaker 1: was forty three percent nine percent for oh, I got

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Speaker 1: it almost right forty four and thirty nine percent right.

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Speaker 1: So only Warnock, they've say is too extreme forty four percent,

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Speaker 1: only Walker thirty nine neither at nine and both at five,

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Speaker 1: which is just such an amazing testament to candidate sorry

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Speaker 1: to partisan polarization in terms of nobody says both. It

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Speaker 1: really is either this guy or my guy, neither or

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Speaker 1: I find that a little bit interesting as to whether

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Speaker 1: it even matters or not. I mean, I think it's

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Speaker 1: worth going over the five thirty eight elements. So why

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Speaker 1: don't we go ahead, guys number two, Let's go and

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Speaker 1: put that up there on the screen. So we had

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Speaker 1: the five thirty eight average polled, and what we'll put

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Speaker 1: up there on the screen shows it at fifty five

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Speaker 1: to forty five. Now it's actually adjusted so that one

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Speaker 1: shows fifty eight to forty two. Since that actually was made,

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Speaker 1: it is now actually at fifty nine to forty one

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Speaker 1: in terms of their percentage chances. I think it's also

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Speaker 1: worth going race by race as to what the most

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Speaker 1: razor type ones are according to their polling average weight.

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Speaker 1: Adam Laxalt and Cortes Masso, they have a fifty one

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Speaker 1: in one hundred in Nevada. For the audience which is watching,

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Speaker 1: Ryan and Emily will be on at that time, but

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Speaker 1: we really are not going to know a lot on

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Speaker 1: term around eleven pm Eastern time, Oz Fetterman, though they

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Speaker 1: switched Chrystal much more in the OZ direction. Just in

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Speaker 1: the last twenty four hours. They have it now at

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Speaker 1: fifty seven percent chance of Oz winning given the last

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Speaker 1: polls that all came in his favor. For Warnock, they

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Speaker 1: actually have it at sixty three percent for herschel Walker,

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Speaker 1: which I found interesting. Blake Masters they have losing. They

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Speaker 1: have a sixty six percent chance in favor of Mark Kelly.

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Speaker 1: That's kind of an interesting one. I thought it'd be. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: it is. I mean curious what you think, Marshall. Something

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Speaker 1: I floated on the show was I think the strength

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Speaker 1: of Kerry Lake's candidacy visa v. Katie Hobbs, who is

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Speaker 1: just objectively like a very bad candidate, didn't do the debate,

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Speaker 1: was hiding may actually be the saving grace for Black Masters,

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Speaker 1: because the split ticket voting is just it's a rare

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Speaker 1: phenomenon in the year twenty twenty two. Yeah, there's a

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Speaker 1: lot of that. And I think the other thing that's

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Speaker 1: clear here is christ who said this Mark Kelly is

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Speaker 1: a good Democratic candidate state like Arizona. Yeah, so you're

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Speaker 1: just really seeing that this is where the to your point, anecdotally,

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Speaker 1: I just can't reject the candidate quality story here, but

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Speaker 1: it seems to be the story of this year right now.

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Speaker 1: And I think the other thing that I want to

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Speaker 1: just pick up on real quick, Crystal, because I think

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Speaker 1: it's important to know from people when you're talking about

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Speaker 1: twenty ten versus twenty twenty two. The difference in twenty

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Speaker 1: ten is like you're not with door knocking. Yeah, you're

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Speaker 1: kind of having to walk around and be like, oh, like,

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Speaker 1: here are all these things that are happening, and here's

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Speaker 1: why this Obama Jenit thing is actually kind of good,

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Speaker 1: and that's kind of difficult to do Democrats, like I'm

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Speaker 1: coming from Texas, so Democrats are energized, and in weird ways,

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Speaker 1: they're acting like they're not in control right now. So

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Speaker 1: if you're a Democrat, you control the House, you could

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Speaker 1: roll a cent you control the presidency. It does not

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Speaker 1: feel like that in the country right now. And if

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Speaker 1: you're looking where the Biden administration has really struggled, it's

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Speaker 1: the contradiction there. You both own it. But if you're

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Speaker 1: looking at Supreme Court decision, if you're looking at the

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Speaker 1: student loan issue, the Supreme Court itself too. You don't

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Speaker 1: feel like you're in control. So that's going to be

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Speaker 1: confounding variable for the next bit. Let me give you

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Speaker 1: guys an interesting data point on Pennsylvania, because I know

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Speaker 1: that the polls now show that Oz is up and

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Speaker 1: he closed the gap. I mean, there was a while

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Speaker 1: where Fetterman was way up. OZ closed the gap, and

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Speaker 1: now he's up at least according to the five thirty

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Speaker 1: eight numbers, which is like the average of the polls.

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Speaker 1: CBS Pennsylvania exit poll, which one of these issues mattered

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Speaker 1: most to your vote, Abortion is number one thirty six percent.

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Speaker 1: Very interesting behind that is inflation twenty after that. I

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Speaker 1: was shocked by that too. I was very shocked by that. Well,

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Speaker 1: whether it's true or not, you know, that's that's the

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Speaker 1: real question. I think. Let's go ahead put number six

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Speaker 1: up there. We've got the Pennsylvania RCP average that shows

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Speaker 1: us exactly what we're working with. Then why the five

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Speaker 1: thirty eight average moved in that direction? So we have

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Speaker 1: RCP and five there eight there. What they show is

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Speaker 1: that Oz in the final average is at up by

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Speaker 1: only point one. I mean, that's not a margin that

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Speaker 1: you necessarily a good one. You've got plus two, plus two,

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Speaker 1: plus three, and then you had that very strange Marris

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Speaker 1: poll which we talked about on our last show, Crystal,

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Speaker 1: with Fetterman up by six points. I mean, look on

430
00:20:17,560 --> 00:20:21,040
Speaker 1: that one, I think it's difficult, which is that I

431
00:20:21,160 --> 00:20:24,680
Speaker 1: do tend though to come back on Biden may be

432
00:20:25,040 --> 00:20:29,479
Speaker 1: more important in Pennsylvania, given that he has such a

433
00:20:29,480 --> 00:20:32,840
Speaker 1: low approval rating. Well here is rec going well, going

434
00:20:32,880 --> 00:20:35,399
Speaker 1: back to like the whole candidate quality question, which is

435
00:20:35,520 --> 00:20:38,440
Speaker 1: kind of central to what ultimately happens tonight, right, because

436
00:20:38,440 --> 00:20:41,040
Speaker 1: if you're going by the fundamentals, the Democrats are done.

437
00:20:41,040 --> 00:20:43,480
Speaker 1: They're toast, it's over, it's ugly. You know, Republicans are

438
00:20:43,520 --> 00:20:45,720
Speaker 1: winning like fifty six seats in the Senate. The only

439
00:20:45,760 --> 00:20:48,360
Speaker 1: reason Democrats really have a shot is because there are

440
00:20:48,359 --> 00:20:51,120
Speaker 1: some questions about these candidates. I mean Pennsylvania at this point,

441
00:20:51,160 --> 00:20:53,520
Speaker 1: I at the beginning of this race, I really thought

442
00:20:53,560 --> 00:20:55,800
Speaker 1: Fetterman was not just like an Okay can. I really

443
00:20:55,800 --> 00:20:58,399
Speaker 1: thought he was one of the best Democratic candidates in

444
00:20:58,440 --> 00:21:03,200
Speaker 1: the country because he had that just natural, authentic everyman appeal.

445
00:21:03,359 --> 00:21:05,040
Speaker 1: There's no doubt about it. The fact that he had

446
00:21:05,040 --> 00:21:07,760
Speaker 1: a stroke really made things challenging for him. I'm in

447
00:21:07,800 --> 00:21:10,439
Speaker 1: the debate performance it was very difficult to watch. But

448
00:21:10,560 --> 00:21:14,959
Speaker 1: Oz is also a terrible candidate, like need we remind

449
00:21:14,960 --> 00:21:17,159
Speaker 1: every one of the whole crew de Tae situation and

450
00:21:17,160 --> 00:21:19,800
Speaker 1: how he was completely at the beginning of the campaign,

451
00:21:19,920 --> 00:21:22,560
Speaker 1: especially the Fetterman team did an amazing job of reminding

452
00:21:22,600 --> 00:21:24,640
Speaker 1: people like, this guy's a carpetbager, and he's an elitist,

453
00:21:24,680 --> 00:21:29,440
Speaker 1: and he's out of touch. And even post stroke, Oz's

454
00:21:29,480 --> 00:21:33,359
Speaker 1: approval ratings have been abysmal, and Fetterman's have been really solid.

455
00:21:33,400 --> 00:21:36,359
Speaker 1: Like people like John Fetterman. They may have questions about

456
00:21:36,359 --> 00:21:38,199
Speaker 1: whether he's really up for the Senate now or not,

457
00:21:38,600 --> 00:21:41,600
Speaker 1: but they generally like John Fetterman more than they like

458
00:21:41,880 --> 00:21:44,520
Speaker 1: doctor Oz, So that one I sort of put as

459
00:21:44,560 --> 00:21:47,000
Speaker 1: like a wash in terms of candidate quality. But I

460
00:21:47,000 --> 00:21:50,280
Speaker 1: think the governor's race in Pennsylvania you're talking about, well,

461
00:21:50,280 --> 00:21:53,720
Speaker 1: what's different there versus the governor's race in Arizona. Since

462
00:21:53,760 --> 00:21:57,840
Speaker 1: you have two extreme election deniers on the Republican ticket,

463
00:21:58,119 --> 00:22:00,760
Speaker 1: and one of them, Carry Lake, seems very likely to

464
00:22:00,800 --> 00:22:04,200
Speaker 1: win and the other one, Doug Mastriano, seems very likely

465
00:22:04,240 --> 00:22:08,119
Speaker 1: to lose. There, I think candidate quality really is the

466
00:22:08,119 --> 00:22:10,960
Speaker 1: only thing you can point to, and in my opinion,

467
00:22:11,359 --> 00:22:14,560
Speaker 1: candidate quality is actually more important for governor's races, which

468
00:22:14,600 --> 00:22:17,080
Speaker 1: tend to be somewhat less partisan. You see a place

469
00:22:17,119 --> 00:22:19,280
Speaker 1: like Vermont elect a Republican. You see a place like

470
00:22:19,320 --> 00:22:21,840
Speaker 1: Maryland elector Republican. You say a place like Kentucky elect

471
00:22:21,840 --> 00:22:24,479
Speaker 1: a Democrat. So you have a bit more of voters

472
00:22:24,480 --> 00:22:27,480
Speaker 1: who are open to either party at the gubernatorial level,

473
00:22:27,480 --> 00:22:29,919
Speaker 1: because it's less about like these hard partisan who's going

474
00:22:29,960 --> 00:22:33,240
Speaker 1: to control the Senate kind of questions. And in Mastriana,

475
00:22:33,320 --> 00:22:35,760
Speaker 1: you have a very poor candidate who's also very extreme.

476
00:22:36,040 --> 00:22:38,359
Speaker 1: In Joshapiro, who's the Democratic choice, you actually have a

477
00:22:38,440 --> 00:22:40,800
Speaker 1: very good candidate who has proven himself to the state

478
00:22:40,920 --> 00:22:43,840
Speaker 1: at a statewide level. He's taken on big corporations, he's

479
00:22:43,880 --> 00:22:46,200
Speaker 1: taken on big pharma, he took on the Catholic Church,

480
00:22:46,560 --> 00:22:48,919
Speaker 1: and there seems to be an awareness of that among

481
00:22:48,960 --> 00:22:50,760
Speaker 1: the elector and I think that's part of why he's

482
00:22:50,800 --> 00:22:53,760
Speaker 1: had a consistent edge going into election night, and maybe

483
00:22:53,760 --> 00:22:57,159
Speaker 1: that's something that helps Fetterman here down the stretch. On

484
00:22:57,240 --> 00:22:59,520
Speaker 1: the other hand, to your point saga about you know,

485
00:22:59,600 --> 00:23:02,720
Speaker 1: Arizona at the gubernatorial level, Katie Hobbs, the Democrat, has

486
00:23:02,760 --> 00:23:05,480
Speaker 1: been very lackluster. She was very obviously too scared to

487
00:23:05,560 --> 00:23:08,439
Speaker 1: debate Carrie Lake. Carry Lake is crazy, but she is

488
00:23:08,520 --> 00:23:11,960
Speaker 1: very talented and charismatic on camera, She's, you know, a

489
00:23:12,080 --> 00:23:15,639
Speaker 1: television personality. She knows what she's doing. She comes across

490
00:23:15,720 --> 00:23:18,520
Speaker 1: as very confident, and so I think in those situations,

491
00:23:18,600 --> 00:23:20,240
Speaker 1: the only thing you can really point to there is

492
00:23:20,240 --> 00:23:23,080
Speaker 1: you have two very different slates of candidates and candidate

493
00:23:23,119 --> 00:23:26,640
Speaker 1: quality situation. Great question for the panel around Fetterman, Chris,

494
00:23:26,760 --> 00:23:30,480
Speaker 1: you're kind of hinting at this. How much did the

495
00:23:30,520 --> 00:23:35,639
Speaker 1: peak Fetterman June to July online dunking matter. It felt

496
00:23:35,640 --> 00:23:37,920
Speaker 1: like it really mattered at the time, so once again

497
00:23:37,920 --> 00:23:41,479
Speaker 1: the crititay ads the brilliant memes. Did it matter at

498
00:23:41,520 --> 00:23:43,480
Speaker 1: all or was it a wash? I think it mattered.

499
00:23:44,480 --> 00:23:47,560
Speaker 1: I think it was the substance of the dunking because

500
00:23:47,600 --> 00:23:50,960
Speaker 1: the original argument was basically like a carpetbag argument. He's

501
00:23:50,960 --> 00:23:53,439
Speaker 1: a carpetbagger, plus he's a massive elitist, and they kind

502
00:23:53,480 --> 00:23:56,080
Speaker 1: of hammered away on that endlessly. But then I do

503
00:23:56,119 --> 00:23:59,480
Speaker 1: feel like they sort of lost those the specific nature

504
00:23:59,480 --> 00:24:01,760
Speaker 1: of those attacks moving forward, and then of course the stroke,

505
00:24:01,800 --> 00:24:03,480
Speaker 1: you know, yeah, throws a wrench into the whole thing.

506
00:24:03,520 --> 00:24:06,119
Speaker 1: But I mean, I do think I do think that mattered.

507
00:24:06,119 --> 00:24:09,040
Speaker 1: But Chris, so let me ask you about Carrie Lakeby,

508
00:24:09,119 --> 00:24:10,560
Speaker 1: is you know I've been thinking about this. Is it

509
00:24:10,600 --> 00:24:13,600
Speaker 1: really just like the charisma thing? Because the fact of

510
00:24:13,600 --> 00:24:15,520
Speaker 1: the matter is, if you like take what she says

511
00:24:15,680 --> 00:24:17,560
Speaker 1: and just like write it down and hand it to somebody,

512
00:24:17,560 --> 00:24:19,919
Speaker 1: people be like, whoa, what is this? This is wild?

513
00:24:20,160 --> 00:24:21,760
Speaker 1: But is it just like that, like you said, she's

514
00:24:21,800 --> 00:24:24,640
Speaker 1: good on camera, she delivers stuff. Well, is that enough?

515
00:24:24,680 --> 00:24:26,399
Speaker 1: Is that really all that matters? And what does that

516
00:24:26,400 --> 00:24:29,359
Speaker 1: say about us? If that's the case? Donald Trump is

517
00:24:29,400 --> 00:24:34,879
Speaker 1: president of the United States. So listen, I can't claim

518
00:24:34,960 --> 00:24:37,680
Speaker 1: to be like really deep into the weeds of Arizona

519
00:24:37,720 --> 00:24:40,280
Speaker 1: politics to say for sure, if there weren't things that,

520
00:24:40,320 --> 00:24:42,600
Speaker 1: like Katie Hobbes did that piss people off other than

521
00:24:42,600 --> 00:24:44,920
Speaker 1: not doing the debate or like that people actually like

522
00:24:44,960 --> 00:24:47,639
Speaker 1: about carry lakes platform, I really don't know. But from

523
00:24:47,680 --> 00:24:49,720
Speaker 1: at the surface level, it appears to me that the

524
00:24:49,760 --> 00:24:54,360
Speaker 1: fact that she is super confident, charismatic, you know, presents

525
00:24:54,359 --> 00:24:57,920
Speaker 1: herself well, super comfortable on television seems to be doing

526
00:24:58,040 --> 00:24:59,880
Speaker 1: a lot for her here. And just to go back

527
00:25:00,119 --> 00:25:03,480
Speaker 1: the Oz Fetterman question of whether those dunks mattered, I

528
00:25:03,480 --> 00:25:05,959
Speaker 1: think they really defined Oz in a very negative way

529
00:25:06,000 --> 00:25:08,000
Speaker 1: from the beginning, and he's never recovered. I mean he's

530
00:25:08,000 --> 00:25:10,600
Speaker 1: still I'm looking at this poll from five days ago,

531
00:25:10,960 --> 00:25:15,160
Speaker 1: he's underwater favorability rating upside down, only thirty five percent

532
00:25:15,240 --> 00:25:19,080
Speaker 1: have a favorable rating of him to fifty two percent unfavorable,

533
00:25:19,280 --> 00:25:22,719
Speaker 1: whereas Fetterman is still above water in terms of his

534
00:25:22,920 --> 00:25:26,240
Speaker 1: favorability rating. So to the extent that Fetterman is still

535
00:25:26,240 --> 00:25:28,359
Speaker 1: in this fight, and you know, my prediction was that

536
00:25:28,440 --> 00:25:30,479
Speaker 1: ultimately Oz is actually going to pull it out. So

537
00:25:30,600 --> 00:25:32,560
Speaker 1: I you know, on the record of saying I think

538
00:25:32,600 --> 00:25:34,679
Speaker 1: at this point it's probably Oz is raised to lose.

539
00:25:35,000 --> 00:25:36,720
Speaker 1: But to the extent that Fetterman still has a shot

540
00:25:36,760 --> 00:25:38,760
Speaker 1: in this thing, it's because people just like him more

541
00:25:38,800 --> 00:25:41,040
Speaker 1: than they like doctor Oz. No. I think you're absolutely correct.

542
00:25:41,080 --> 00:25:43,200
Speaker 1: You know some interesting data that we have out right

543
00:25:43,240 --> 00:25:45,840
Speaker 1: now on Miami Dade County. So in terms of what's

544
00:25:45,880 --> 00:25:49,520
Speaker 1: happening with Ron DeSantis, he is up currently by eight

545
00:25:49,560 --> 00:25:52,359
Speaker 1: points with sixty six percent of the votes in and

546
00:25:52,400 --> 00:25:54,480
Speaker 1: that is the same county that he lost Crystal by

547
00:25:54,600 --> 00:25:57,520
Speaker 1: twenty points just four years ago. Well, so that is

548
00:25:57,560 --> 00:25:59,080
Speaker 1: a mett I mean, look, I don't have to tell

549
00:25:59,080 --> 00:26:01,679
Speaker 1: everybody about the demo graphics of Miami Dade County, but

550
00:26:02,040 --> 00:26:05,640
Speaker 1: just to show you about how exactly the Latino realignment,

551
00:26:05,920 --> 00:26:10,760
Speaker 1: particularly with Cuban immigrants and others in Florida, that is

552
00:26:10,800 --> 00:26:13,400
Speaker 1: a stunning development. The other newsy point that I want

553
00:26:13,440 --> 00:26:16,159
Speaker 1: to point on Arizona, this I predict is going to

554
00:26:16,160 --> 00:26:18,320
Speaker 1: be a big thing. I was flagging it to you earlier.

555
00:26:18,320 --> 00:26:22,280
Speaker 1: There were reports about problems in Maricopa County about voting machines.

556
00:26:22,320 --> 00:26:25,760
Speaker 1: The RNC right now is actually filing an emergency motion

557
00:26:26,200 --> 00:26:29,800
Speaker 1: to extend polling hours in Maricopa County because voting machines.

558
00:26:29,840 --> 00:26:31,720
Speaker 1: This is according to them, in over twenty five percent

559
00:26:31,760 --> 00:26:35,359
Speaker 1: of voting locations have experienced quote significant issues. The widespread

560
00:26:35,359 --> 00:26:38,119
Speaker 1: issues in election administered by Katie Hobbs are unacceptable. This

561
00:26:38,160 --> 00:26:42,040
Speaker 1: is from RNC Chairwoman Ron McDaniel. As Republicans are flocking

562
00:26:42,040 --> 00:26:45,040
Speaker 1: to the polls vote in person on election day, they

563
00:26:45,080 --> 00:26:47,479
Speaker 1: have dozens of attorneys and thousands of volunteers. So if

564
00:26:47,480 --> 00:26:49,760
Speaker 1: it is close, I expect that to be a major flag. Well,

565
00:26:49,800 --> 00:26:53,800
Speaker 1: I mean, it's ironic because it used to be that

566
00:26:54,560 --> 00:26:57,320
Speaker 1: Democrats were the ones that were really concerned about election

567
00:26:57,480 --> 00:27:00,359
Speaker 1: day issues because typically those issues were in this cities,

568
00:27:00,400 --> 00:27:02,600
Speaker 1: and we're seeing that today in Philadelphia and they're having

569
00:27:02,640 --> 00:27:06,080
Speaker 1: issues and typically, you know, it was Democratic voters who

570
00:27:06,080 --> 00:27:09,359
Speaker 1: are actually more likely to vote on election day. Post

571
00:27:09,680 --> 00:27:13,399
Speaker 1: COVID and especially post Trump, you now have this hard

572
00:27:13,480 --> 00:27:16,240
Speaker 1: partisan split where and this is you know, this is

573
00:27:16,240 --> 00:27:19,000
Speaker 1: an important factor for Republicans. Democrats have had weeks of

574
00:27:19,040 --> 00:27:21,040
Speaker 1: early voting to turn their people out and figure out

575
00:27:21,080 --> 00:27:22,639
Speaker 1: who vote and who has it. Let's get them to

576
00:27:22,680 --> 00:27:24,239
Speaker 1: the polls and let's turn out like the ones who

577
00:27:24,280 --> 00:27:27,080
Speaker 1: are reluctant, et cetera, et cetera. Republicans put all of

578
00:27:27,119 --> 00:27:30,480
Speaker 1: their eggs now in this election day basket. So when

579
00:27:30,560 --> 00:27:34,200
Speaker 1: there are problems in Maricopa County, as there are always

580
00:27:34,359 --> 00:27:38,120
Speaker 1: issues every election somewhere in the country, they're freaking out.

581
00:27:38,200 --> 00:27:40,760
Speaker 1: And of course they're not freaking out of like oh no,

582
00:27:40,800 --> 00:27:43,359
Speaker 1: it's they're having issues. They're freaking out of like they're

583
00:27:43,400 --> 00:27:45,840
Speaker 1: stealing it again and it's rigged. Of course, if the

584
00:27:45,920 --> 00:27:48,080
Speaker 1: results go in their favor, then suddenly it's going to

585
00:27:48,119 --> 00:27:50,080
Speaker 1: be all about I think they're pre pre working the

586
00:27:50,119 --> 00:27:53,359
Speaker 1: ground there certainly. I mean, look, we'll see in terms

587
00:27:53,359 --> 00:27:55,800
Speaker 1: of what the actual effect on that was, it was

588
00:27:56,080 --> 00:27:58,800
Speaker 1: incredibly It's just my thing is with Katie Hobbs and

589
00:27:58,800 --> 00:28:00,520
Speaker 1: all of them is like, you knew this was coming,

590
00:28:00,760 --> 00:28:03,320
Speaker 1: and it's like, still, like what happened? Why exactly did

591
00:28:03,359 --> 00:28:05,359
Speaker 1: twenty five or ten percent? I'm going to go with

592
00:28:05,400 --> 00:28:07,520
Speaker 1: ten to twenty which is what I saw from the

593
00:28:07,520 --> 00:28:10,240
Speaker 1: actual press conference, Like how do these machines just go down?

594
00:28:10,280 --> 00:28:12,479
Speaker 1: You have to know that that is going to fuel

595
00:28:12,560 --> 00:28:15,719
Speaker 1: like a serious Priortistan problem after two years of literal

596
00:28:15,760 --> 00:28:19,080
Speaker 1: madness in Arizona where you had all those lawsuits and

597
00:28:19,119 --> 00:28:21,280
Speaker 1: the fake audits and then there was actually a compromise

598
00:28:21,480 --> 00:28:25,240
Speaker 1: voting machines by the Republican side by the overstock billionaire,

599
00:28:25,320 --> 00:28:28,639
Speaker 1: which I'm going down real rabbit holes in terms of

600
00:28:28,640 --> 00:28:30,760
Speaker 1: my memory for the fallout from that. I do think

601
00:28:30,800 --> 00:28:32,960
Speaker 1: it is a major problem, as you said, which is

602
00:28:32,960 --> 00:28:36,199
Speaker 1: that Pennsylvania now says that they had that problem. Then

603
00:28:36,240 --> 00:28:39,200
Speaker 1: you also have the sorry Philadelphia had that problem Arizona.

604
00:28:39,400 --> 00:28:41,360
Speaker 1: I do expect that to be a flashpoint, but I

605
00:28:41,400 --> 00:28:44,200
Speaker 1: also it could disappear, like if Katie Hobbs just comes

606
00:28:44,240 --> 00:28:46,840
Speaker 1: out at the moment that the polls closed in Arizona

607
00:28:46,840 --> 00:28:49,320
Speaker 1: and wins, that it'll very likely disappear. But this is

608
00:28:49,320 --> 00:28:51,120
Speaker 1: one I wanted to highlight for the audience because I

609
00:28:51,120 --> 00:28:54,680
Speaker 1: do kind of expectively see some closer results. Do you think, Marshall,

610
00:28:54,680 --> 00:28:57,160
Speaker 1: that the election denialism will play a big role here

611
00:28:57,160 --> 00:29:00,080
Speaker 1: in the election in terms of like day of the

612
00:29:00,080 --> 00:29:04,600
Speaker 1: awkward situation, which is not if Republicans wait right right?

613
00:29:04,680 --> 00:29:07,160
Speaker 1: So I was listening to a podcast earlier to Prapp

614
00:29:07,160 --> 00:29:10,200
Speaker 1: and pointed out that, look, Katie carry Lake is going

615
00:29:10,280 --> 00:29:14,200
Speaker 1: to declare victory whether she wins, and that's kind of

616
00:29:14,200 --> 00:29:15,880
Speaker 1: the datamic. Karen think, I kind of want to build up.

617
00:29:15,960 --> 00:29:19,880
Speaker 1: I've been thinking about this election denial issue. Look, there's

618
00:29:19,920 --> 00:29:23,040
Speaker 1: no conspiracy. I think that there's a large amount of

619
00:29:23,080 --> 00:29:25,040
Speaker 1: incompetence in these systems. But I think if we're going

620
00:29:25,080 --> 00:29:28,560
Speaker 1: to focus on where is the threat to democratic legitimacy,

621
00:29:28,840 --> 00:29:31,160
Speaker 1: I think it's perfectly reasonable for people who aren't engaged

622
00:29:31,160 --> 00:29:33,160
Speaker 1: with politics to say, like, wait, like it doesn't feel

623
00:29:33,160 --> 00:29:35,400
Speaker 1: like elections have always been this much of across the

624
00:29:35,520 --> 00:29:38,160
Speaker 1: ref So I think that, but they actually have been. Yeah,

625
00:29:38,200 --> 00:29:42,720
Speaker 1: they have they been. I guess too, I mean exactly

626
00:29:42,760 --> 00:29:45,680
Speaker 1: the hanging chads like, come on, they always because and

627
00:29:45,720 --> 00:29:48,680
Speaker 1: it's part of like part of the strength and the

628
00:29:48,720 --> 00:29:51,640
Speaker 1: resilience of the system is that you have each individual

629
00:29:51,680 --> 00:29:55,320
Speaker 1: county running these things by a bunch of volunteers, you know,

630
00:29:55,560 --> 00:29:58,600
Speaker 1: And so of course sometimes things are going to go

631
00:29:59,400 --> 00:30:02,200
Speaker 1: awry thinking out about and by the way, I wanted

632
00:30:02,200 --> 00:30:05,640
Speaker 1: to point out that the Maricopa County Twitter account is

633
00:30:06,280 --> 00:30:08,880
Speaker 1: throwing haymakers at everybody who's criticizing them right now. They're

634
00:30:09,160 --> 00:30:11,920
Speaker 1: responding to Charlie Kirk everybody and saying, like all this

635
00:30:11,960 --> 00:30:15,880
Speaker 1: stuff is fall engaging in the discourse, right But I

636
00:30:15,920 --> 00:30:18,360
Speaker 1: also wanted to give you guys just some more specifics

637
00:30:18,400 --> 00:30:21,680
Speaker 1: on the election deniers, because I think these numbers are fascinating.

638
00:30:22,000 --> 00:30:27,560
Speaker 1: So apparently sixty percent of Americans have at least one

639
00:30:27,560 --> 00:30:29,920
Speaker 1: election denier on the ballot. Out of five hundred and

640
00:30:29,920 --> 00:30:33,480
Speaker 1: fifty two total Republican nominees running for office, one hundred

641
00:30:33,520 --> 00:30:36,680
Speaker 1: and ninety nine fully denied the legitimacy of the twenty

642
00:30:36,680 --> 00:30:41,240
Speaker 1: twenty election, sixty one still question the election. Only seventy

643
00:30:41,280 --> 00:30:43,960
Speaker 1: seven have fully accepted the results of the twenty twenty election.

644
00:30:44,480 --> 00:30:48,960
Speaker 1: Ninety three accepted it with reservations. And what they say,

645
00:30:48,960 --> 00:30:50,760
Speaker 1: at least according to five to thirty eight, is that

646
00:30:51,680 --> 00:30:55,120
Speaker 1: you have at least one hundred are guaranteed to win,

647
00:30:55,480 --> 00:30:59,400
Speaker 1: so you know it's not even competitive, including including three

648
00:30:59,480 --> 00:31:01,880
Speaker 1: in the Senate. But the more important point, in Crystal,

649
00:31:01,920 --> 00:31:04,160
Speaker 1: you pointed this out to me earlier, is that you

650
00:31:04,240 --> 00:31:08,520
Speaker 1: also have in governor's races, there's two election deniers and

651
00:31:08,840 --> 00:31:12,720
Speaker 1: four election doubters are shoe wins. And then you have

652
00:31:13,000 --> 00:31:16,720
Speaker 1: probably even more importantly attorney generals and or attorney general

653
00:31:16,760 --> 00:31:19,880
Speaker 1: and secretaries of state. There's a bunch of them as well.

654
00:31:19,920 --> 00:31:24,240
Speaker 1: Seven election deniers running there for both respectively, for both

655
00:31:24,360 --> 00:31:27,320
Speaker 1: secretary of State and attorneys general. So in total, fifty

656
00:31:27,360 --> 00:31:31,160
Speaker 1: three percent of Republicans running either question or deny the

657
00:31:31,200 --> 00:31:33,600
Speaker 1: election out right. So we are starting to get some

658
00:31:33,960 --> 00:31:37,640
Speaker 1: very very early numbers out of the state of Georgia,

659
00:31:37,680 --> 00:31:40,080
Speaker 1: and it's not even really worth telling you exactly what

660
00:31:40,120 --> 00:31:42,360
Speaker 1: they are, but there is one trend that is pretty

661
00:31:42,360 --> 00:31:47,200
Speaker 1: clear already again into the question of candidate quality. Governor Kemp,

662
00:31:47,400 --> 00:31:50,560
Speaker 1: who is being challenged by Stacy Abrams again rematch there

663
00:31:50,720 --> 00:31:55,920
Speaker 1: is outpacing Herschel Walker in his challenge to Rafael Warnock.

664
00:31:56,280 --> 00:31:58,960
Speaker 1: So Kent feels very confident, you know obviously that he's

665
00:31:58,960 --> 00:32:02,160
Speaker 1: going to ultimately prevail. The polls have consistently shown him up.

666
00:32:02,440 --> 00:32:05,160
Speaker 1: But it does show you that, you know, in Georgia,

667
00:32:05,200 --> 00:32:08,720
Speaker 1: even in times as sort of partisan and hardened as

668
00:32:08,760 --> 00:32:13,320
Speaker 1: they feel, you have a significant and potentially determinative number

669
00:32:13,360 --> 00:32:16,440
Speaker 1: of voters who are splitting their ticket and voting for

670
00:32:16,480 --> 00:32:19,480
Speaker 1: the Republican for governor and voting for the Democrat for

671
00:32:19,520 --> 00:32:23,280
Speaker 1: the Senate. Also a reminder, in Georgia you have to

672
00:32:23,360 --> 00:32:27,000
Speaker 1: get over fifty percent in order to avoid a runoff.

673
00:32:27,400 --> 00:32:30,320
Speaker 1: And all of the polls leading up to election day

674
00:32:30,480 --> 00:32:32,520
Speaker 1: have shown, you know, whether they show Walker with a

675
00:32:32,600 --> 00:32:35,160
Speaker 1: narrow lead or Warnock with a narrow lead, they show

676
00:32:35,200 --> 00:32:38,560
Speaker 1: both of them coming in under fifty percentage points. So

677
00:32:38,640 --> 00:32:41,480
Speaker 1: I think it is, you know, highly possible that we

678
00:32:41,640 --> 00:32:44,360
Speaker 1: end up with yet another Georgia Senate run off. I

679
00:32:44,360 --> 00:32:47,280
Speaker 1: think you're right, and Sean Trendio or Real Clear Politics

680
00:32:47,280 --> 00:32:49,760
Speaker 1: talking about this, saying that Walker is currently is running

681
00:32:49,760 --> 00:32:52,720
Speaker 1: in about four points behind Brian Camp. So that is

682
00:32:52,760 --> 00:32:54,640
Speaker 1: a question of do you think that Brian camp is

683
00:32:54,680 --> 00:32:56,640
Speaker 1: going to get more than fifty four percent of the

684
00:32:56,720 --> 00:32:58,840
Speaker 1: raw vote. So if he does, then it's possible that

685
00:32:58,920 --> 00:33:01,920
Speaker 1: Walker could have over fifty. I generally think you're right,

686
00:33:01,960 --> 00:33:05,080
Speaker 1: which is that I don't see necessarily a world. But listen,

687
00:33:05,400 --> 00:33:07,880
Speaker 1: we will see in terms of right now, like what

688
00:33:08,000 --> 00:33:10,720
Speaker 1: the major hot story I think is, it's what I

689
00:33:10,760 --> 00:33:14,000
Speaker 1: mentioned before on Miami Dade County and the interim numbers

690
00:33:14,200 --> 00:33:17,040
Speaker 1: coming out of Florida. With regards to Ron DeSantis, there's

691
00:33:17,080 --> 00:33:20,000
Speaker 1: some current numbers do look like he may win, actually

692
00:33:20,040 --> 00:33:23,240
Speaker 1: by almost ten percent, which is crazy when you consider

693
00:33:23,560 --> 00:33:27,440
Speaker 1: how he barely won the gubernatorial election against Andrew Gillum.

694
00:33:27,480 --> 00:33:30,040
Speaker 1: I mean, he almost didn't win the Republican primary until

695
00:33:30,040 --> 00:33:32,520
Speaker 1: Trump came and endorse him, which is a different question

696
00:33:32,560 --> 00:33:34,200
Speaker 1: which I think you will hear quite a bit about

697
00:33:34,200 --> 00:33:37,120
Speaker 1: it if he does decide to run against Trump. Marco

698
00:33:37,200 --> 00:33:39,200
Speaker 1: Rubio also, right now, we've got fifty percent of the

699
00:33:39,280 --> 00:33:42,280
Speaker 1: vote in so far from Florida. He's up very comfortably

700
00:33:42,560 --> 00:33:45,680
Speaker 1: over val Deemings. It wasn't necessarily a question in terms

701
00:33:45,720 --> 00:33:47,560
Speaker 1: of any other races. If people are interested that have

702
00:33:47,600 --> 00:33:50,240
Speaker 1: only been called we're going by the ap tonight everybody

703
00:33:50,320 --> 00:33:55,520
Speaker 1: Kentucky ran, Paul officially re elected. Okay, big surprise, Tim

704
00:33:55,560 --> 00:33:59,080
Speaker 1: Scott officially re elected there, and then Peter Welch winning

705
00:33:59,320 --> 00:34:01,800
Speaker 1: in Vermont. The Tim Scott one just reminds me of

706
00:34:01,960 --> 00:34:05,280
Speaker 1: one of my favorite stories around how exactly and how

707
00:34:05,360 --> 00:34:08,400
Speaker 1: wrong the polls truly can be. Well, let's all remember

708
00:34:08,680 --> 00:34:12,440
Speaker 1: Lindsey Graham in twenty twenty. Jamie Harrison was said to

709
00:34:12,520 --> 00:34:15,400
Speaker 1: be within just one shot. He raised over one hundred

710
00:34:15,400 --> 00:34:19,080
Speaker 1: million dollars only one point away. Jim Clyburn said that

711
00:34:19,160 --> 00:34:21,399
Speaker 1: he could pull him across the finish line. He ended

712
00:34:21,480 --> 00:34:24,640
Speaker 1: up winning by losing by seventeen points, which is almost

713
00:34:24,680 --> 00:34:27,319
Speaker 1: the exact same margin as the person who ran against

714
00:34:27,360 --> 00:34:30,680
Speaker 1: Lindsay Graham six years prior. So to have nearly a

715
00:34:30,680 --> 00:34:33,680
Speaker 1: seventeen point wrong swing in the state of South Carolina,

716
00:34:33,880 --> 00:34:36,520
Speaker 1: we should all prepare ourselves for results like that. I've

717
00:34:36,600 --> 00:34:38,680
Speaker 1: rewarded him by making him dean. Yeah, that's right, they

718
00:34:38,760 --> 00:34:41,560
Speaker 1: rewarded him by making him the DNC chair. I'm also

719
00:34:41,640 --> 00:34:44,320
Speaker 1: really reminded whenever we're going to talk in the context

720
00:34:44,320 --> 00:34:47,840
Speaker 1: in New Hampshire is Maine. I mean, we cannot forget

721
00:34:47,880 --> 00:34:52,360
Speaker 1: Susan Collins outpaced by nine points to actually finish quite

722
00:34:52,400 --> 00:34:55,080
Speaker 1: comfortably in the state of Maine, when she was considered

723
00:34:55,160 --> 00:35:00,160
Speaker 1: an absolute goner on almost every statewide pole so called

724
00:35:00,320 --> 00:35:02,680
Speaker 1: high quality. I was talking about this earlier today. I'm

725
00:35:02,680 --> 00:35:05,120
Speaker 1: actually curious, Marshall Kyle, what you guys think. Why is

726
00:35:05,160 --> 00:35:09,680
Speaker 1: it that we seem unable to properly pull non college

727
00:35:09,760 --> 00:35:12,680
Speaker 1: educated whites. It is a story that is just does

728
00:35:12,760 --> 00:35:15,560
Speaker 1: not seem solvable, like it seems at this point somebody

729
00:35:15,760 --> 00:35:19,280
Speaker 1: would be able to properly wait some you know, formula,

730
00:35:19,400 --> 00:35:22,040
Speaker 1: and yet since Donald Trump came on the ballot, Marshall,

731
00:35:22,280 --> 00:35:25,280
Speaker 1: it has just not yet been possible, which is crazy

732
00:35:25,320 --> 00:35:27,200
Speaker 1: for the people like us who have to sit here

733
00:35:27,239 --> 00:35:29,520
Speaker 1: in prognosticators like listen, we have to bake it an

734
00:35:29,560 --> 00:35:32,839
Speaker 1: assumption of complete, of completely being wrong in a way

735
00:35:32,840 --> 00:35:35,080
Speaker 1: that we haven't in modern history in a long time. Yeah,

736
00:35:35,080 --> 00:35:37,280
Speaker 1: And like you said, it's a new dynamic to politics,

737
00:35:37,280 --> 00:35:42,480
Speaker 1: it hasn't been. It's hard because very well paid, very

738
00:35:42,520 --> 00:35:45,120
Speaker 1: smart people have spent the last eight years it's literally

739
00:35:45,160 --> 00:35:47,400
Speaker 1: focused on this issue, and it just seems like this

740
00:35:47,440 --> 00:35:48,759
Speaker 1: is one of those categories where we're going to have

741
00:35:48,840 --> 00:35:51,439
Speaker 1: to just factor this in for the next, our next

742
00:35:51,440 --> 00:35:53,120
Speaker 1: eight years like this, this is kind of the story

743
00:35:53,120 --> 00:35:55,960
Speaker 1: of the decade. Just how that gap between college educated

744
00:35:56,000 --> 00:35:58,120
Speaker 1: and non college educated whites that's the center of politics

745
00:35:58,200 --> 00:36:01,000
Speaker 1: right now. Yeah, what do you think Kyle Well Crystal

746
00:36:01,200 --> 00:36:03,319
Speaker 1: was reading me earlier today, Remember the five thirty eight

747
00:36:03,400 --> 00:36:05,760
Speaker 1: article from Nate Silver. He was like having an identity

748
00:36:05,760 --> 00:36:09,719
Speaker 1: crisis and writing it down, explaining like, how do we

749
00:36:09,719 --> 00:36:11,680
Speaker 1: weigh this thing versus how do we weigh that thing?

750
00:36:11,719 --> 00:36:13,080
Speaker 1: How do you know, how do we make it work?

751
00:36:13,120 --> 00:36:15,799
Speaker 1: And you know, look, the thing that really shook my

752
00:36:15,880 --> 00:36:21,000
Speaker 1: faith massively was that typically in modern American history, you had,

753
00:36:21,080 --> 00:36:24,560
Speaker 1: you know, there would be an advantage for the Democrats

754
00:36:24,560 --> 00:36:28,400
Speaker 1: baked into the polls. But then it was the opposite

755
00:36:28,480 --> 00:36:31,839
Speaker 1: in this these special elections that just happened. I think

756
00:36:31,840 --> 00:36:36,680
Speaker 1: it was five House special elections post Dobbs correct, and

757
00:36:37,280 --> 00:36:38,960
Speaker 1: it was the it was the exact opposite. And I

758
00:36:39,000 --> 00:36:41,719
Speaker 1: was like, wait, what I always thought, either the polls

759
00:36:41,719 --> 00:36:45,319
Speaker 1: are going to be like roughly accurate, or you're gonna

760
00:36:45,360 --> 00:36:48,680
Speaker 1: have a baked in like four point Democratic advantage. But

761
00:36:49,640 --> 00:36:51,319
Speaker 1: at this point, now this is my answer. Every time

762
00:36:51,320 --> 00:36:53,319
Speaker 1: you lasted, I'm like, I don't know, I'm going off

763
00:36:53,360 --> 00:36:57,840
Speaker 1: gut feeling. Now it literally, I know, it is so crazy.

764
00:36:57,840 --> 00:37:00,720
Speaker 1: Here's a fun data point coming out from the Stacy

765
00:37:00,719 --> 00:37:04,680
Speaker 1: Abrams currently running behind Warnock by eight points. So the

766
00:37:04,760 --> 00:37:09,400
Speaker 1: Democratic dream Stacy Abrams raised, I mean tens of millions

767
00:37:09,400 --> 00:37:11,600
Speaker 1: of dollars, became a massive star in her own right.

768
00:37:11,680 --> 00:37:14,840
Speaker 1: Go ahead. Kemp stood up to Trump. Yes, he is

769
00:37:14,880 --> 00:37:16,920
Speaker 1: not an election denier. Correct, And it looks like he's,

770
00:37:16,960 --> 00:37:19,080
Speaker 1: if anything, he's being rewarded for that. You know what's funny,

771
00:37:19,160 --> 00:37:24,040
Speaker 1: Kyle Trump. Trump actually endorsed him yesterday. To Trump. It

772
00:37:24,080 --> 00:37:26,160
Speaker 1: was a quiet adment. Johnny came out. It was like,

773
00:37:26,640 --> 00:37:29,799
Speaker 1: I give Brian Kemp my support. Why we all, you

774
00:37:29,840 --> 00:37:32,200
Speaker 1: know what, because he's gonna win. So you see, I

775
00:37:32,239 --> 00:37:35,480
Speaker 1: had the better even though I literally went to the

776
00:37:35,520 --> 00:37:38,240
Speaker 1: state and said I would rather have Stacy as governor.

777
00:37:38,280 --> 00:37:40,440
Speaker 1: After it looks like he's gonna win. Trump is behind me.

778
00:37:41,400 --> 00:37:44,880
Speaker 1: I just want to say one thing about Stacy Abrams,

779
00:37:44,880 --> 00:37:48,359
Speaker 1: who was really built up as like this next Democratic star,

780
00:37:48,560 --> 00:37:50,960
Speaker 1: and there were, you know, glossy profiles written for her

781
00:37:50,960 --> 00:37:53,160
Speaker 1: in the Washington Post photo shoots and all this stuff.

782
00:37:53,600 --> 00:37:56,919
Speaker 1: Part of her mistique was that she had built this

783
00:37:57,200 --> 00:38:01,280
Speaker 1: voter turnout operation in Georgia. That was the whole idea

784
00:38:01,360 --> 00:38:04,319
Speaker 1: is like Stacy Abrams crack the code number. When Joe

785
00:38:04,360 --> 00:38:07,000
Speaker 1: Biden wins Georgia by this narrow margin, and we're saying

786
00:38:07,000 --> 00:38:10,480
Speaker 1: it's because of this voter turnout machine that Stacy Abrams

787
00:38:10,800 --> 00:38:13,400
Speaker 1: was able to put together and focused on and what

788
00:38:13,440 --> 00:38:15,440
Speaker 1: she did and listen, I'm not there. I don't know.

789
00:38:15,480 --> 00:38:18,279
Speaker 1: Maybe it did make a difference ultimately, but she wasn't

790
00:38:18,320 --> 00:38:20,279
Speaker 1: able to turn that machine on clearly in order to

791
00:38:20,280 --> 00:38:24,040
Speaker 1: get herself sufficient votes to come close to defeating Brian Kemp.

792
00:38:24,080 --> 00:38:25,799
Speaker 1: It's not over yet, it's not called, but doesn't look

793
00:38:25,800 --> 00:38:31,040
Speaker 1: good for her when she's running so significantly behind Warnock ultimately.

794
00:38:31,680 --> 00:38:34,439
Speaker 1: One other note on the Georgia race. This is from

795
00:38:34,800 --> 00:38:37,560
Speaker 1: at Taniel O'Daniel Nasheniyan, who by the way, Bolts Magazine.

796
00:38:37,600 --> 00:38:39,480
Speaker 1: You guys got to follow up support them if you can.

797
00:38:39,760 --> 00:38:42,160
Speaker 1: They have a wonderful election cheat sheet with all of

798
00:38:42,200 --> 00:38:45,360
Speaker 1: the ballot initiatives, everything that is at stake in this election.

799
00:38:45,480 --> 00:38:47,520
Speaker 1: No matter they lean to the left. They focus a

800
00:38:47,560 --> 00:38:50,239
Speaker 1: lot on criminal justice issues, but just in terms of information,

801
00:38:50,840 --> 00:38:53,440
Speaker 1: totally second to then, So shout out to them. But

802
00:38:53,520 --> 00:38:56,759
Speaker 1: he's saying that we now have an interesting data point

803
00:38:56,800 --> 00:38:59,720
Speaker 1: from Georgia, which is that the libertarian candidate is only

804
00:38:59,760 --> 00:39:02,920
Speaker 1: guard wondering about one point four percent. That's crazy. So

805
00:39:03,000 --> 00:39:06,719
Speaker 1: that means that the Walker Warnock margin would have to

806
00:39:06,760 --> 00:39:10,520
Speaker 1: be under whatever the libertarian candidate is getting in order

807
00:39:10,600 --> 00:39:13,600
Speaker 1: to go to a runoff. So since the libertarian candidate

808
00:39:13,680 --> 00:39:16,120
Speaker 1: is getting such a small proportion, that makes it less

809
00:39:16,160 --> 00:39:18,120
Speaker 1: likely that it is ultimately going to go to a runoff.

810
00:39:18,120 --> 00:39:20,320
Speaker 1: That's actually a fascinating point. Go ahead, Mark, Yeah, I

811
00:39:20,719 --> 00:39:24,480
Speaker 1: want to build on the on the Warnock versus Stacy

812
00:39:24,560 --> 00:39:27,319
Speaker 1: Abraham story because if you're looking at lessons for Democrats right,

813
00:39:27,400 --> 00:39:29,480
Speaker 1: a lesson for Republicans we focus on tonight is, look,

814
00:39:29,480 --> 00:39:31,359
Speaker 1: if you're gonna have an election denier, make sure they're

815
00:39:31,440 --> 00:39:37,040
Speaker 1: television talent. If you're a Democrat operating in a purple

816
00:39:37,480 --> 00:39:40,799
Speaker 1: to red state, you need to be able to not

817
00:39:40,920 --> 00:39:42,720
Speaker 1: be a part of the national mood. And it seems

818
00:39:42,760 --> 00:39:45,799
Speaker 1: to me the big mistake that Stacy Abrams has consistently

819
00:39:45,880 --> 00:39:48,880
Speaker 1: made this is the mistake that also like nuke to

820
00:39:48,920 --> 00:39:51,400
Speaker 1: her vice presidential one, like brought a twenty twenty chen,

821
00:39:51,480 --> 00:39:54,360
Speaker 1: is she feels the need to jump into the national discourse.

822
00:39:54,600 --> 00:39:56,279
Speaker 1: And I don't just mean like commenting on issues, but

823
00:39:56,360 --> 00:39:59,680
Speaker 1: she just clearly is a national figure, and Warnock is

824
00:39:59,680 --> 00:40:02,399
Speaker 1: not an political figure. Same thing goes for Mark Kelly,

825
00:40:02,560 --> 00:40:04,560
Speaker 1: same thing goes for Fetterman. So if you're a Democrat

826
00:40:04,560 --> 00:40:06,960
Speaker 1: in these types of states, you need to have a personality,

827
00:40:07,000 --> 00:40:09,080
Speaker 1: which all three of those do, but you also just

828
00:40:09,120 --> 00:40:11,680
Speaker 1: cannot be part of that national story. So I read

829
00:40:11,719 --> 00:40:13,719
Speaker 1: it just a little bit differently. I mean, I agree

830
00:40:13,760 --> 00:40:16,120
Speaker 1: with what you're saying, but the other thing is Georgia

831
00:40:16,280 --> 00:40:19,759
Speaker 1: historically is a red state, and you have Warnock and

832
00:40:19,800 --> 00:40:23,360
Speaker 1: Assoff pulled off the upset there recently. And when I

833
00:40:23,400 --> 00:40:26,840
Speaker 1: look at Warnock, I think he has like every excuse

834
00:40:26,880 --> 00:40:29,520
Speaker 1: in the world to go full Joe Mansion in full

835
00:40:29,640 --> 00:40:32,480
Speaker 1: Kirston cinema, and he just didn't. He's actually been like

836
00:40:32,520 --> 00:40:35,279
Speaker 1: a loyal vote for Biden. And I view that as

837
00:40:35,280 --> 00:40:38,920
Speaker 1: almost like super serving the Democratic base. So the model

838
00:40:39,000 --> 00:40:42,480
Speaker 1: going forward should be for Democrats like super serve your

839
00:40:42,480 --> 00:40:44,440
Speaker 1: base and then maybe you'll have a shot even in

840
00:40:44,480 --> 00:40:47,160
Speaker 1: an off year, as opposed to trying to please everybody

841
00:40:47,200 --> 00:40:49,200
Speaker 1: like Joe Manchin and of course most importantly manched In

842
00:40:49,239 --> 00:40:52,000
Speaker 1: cinema like to please their donors, but like trying to

843
00:40:52,040 --> 00:40:54,000
Speaker 1: portray yourself as like, oh, I'm a Maverick and I'm

844
00:40:54,000 --> 00:40:56,719
Speaker 1: an iconoclass and I could reach across the aisle. Sometimes

845
00:40:56,800 --> 00:40:58,480
Speaker 1: voters sniff that out for what it is and it's

846
00:40:58,520 --> 00:41:00,320
Speaker 1: really fake. And in the case of Warnock, he didn't

847
00:41:00,360 --> 00:41:02,400
Speaker 1: do that, and perhaps he's getting rewarded for that. It's possible,

848
00:41:02,400 --> 00:41:03,920
Speaker 1: you know. Mark Kelly is an interesting example too. He

849
00:41:04,000 --> 00:41:06,640
Speaker 1: basically around ninety seven percent voting record with Biden, and

850
00:41:06,719 --> 00:41:09,799
Speaker 1: yet like, how exactly does he maintain his credibility From

851
00:41:09,800 --> 00:41:11,640
Speaker 1: what I have read, Really, what it is is that

852
00:41:11,680 --> 00:41:14,160
Speaker 1: he's willing to depart with Biden on the border, He's

853
00:41:14,160 --> 00:41:16,279
Speaker 1: willing to call him out locally. He grants a lot

854
00:41:16,280 --> 00:41:19,000
Speaker 1: of interviews to the local This is where I just

855
00:41:19,000 --> 00:41:21,239
Speaker 1: don't know, Marshall, Like how much of the whole all

856
00:41:21,320 --> 00:41:24,520
Speaker 1: politics is local, all politics is national. But then guys

857
00:41:24,560 --> 00:41:26,719
Speaker 1: like Kelly exist and you're like, hey, I mean he

858
00:41:26,800 --> 00:41:29,080
Speaker 1: does well. I mean he didn't do particularly well in

859
00:41:29,120 --> 00:41:32,440
Speaker 1: the debate, but like he gives interviews to like Arizona Central,

860
00:41:32,520 --> 00:41:34,560
Speaker 1: and he makes sure that in the debate he's like

861
00:41:34,640 --> 00:41:37,560
Speaker 1: I call on Joe Biden to like restore our board,

862
00:41:37,800 --> 00:41:40,840
Speaker 1: but he doesn't ever do that whenever he's here in Washington.

863
00:41:41,080 --> 00:41:42,880
Speaker 1: He doesn't go up to Manu Raju and the CNN

864
00:41:42,920 --> 00:41:45,400
Speaker 1: cameras and we're like, I'm calling out Joe Biden here

865
00:41:45,480 --> 00:41:47,080
Speaker 1: right out. But he does it in his heads and

866
00:41:47,160 --> 00:41:49,879
Speaker 1: somehow it doesn't come across as fake. It's a very

867
00:41:49,880 --> 00:41:52,520
Speaker 1: interesting story. There's something we kind of totally different topic.

868
00:41:52,600 --> 00:41:54,640
Speaker 1: We kind of glossed over it, right with those Miami

869
00:41:54,719 --> 00:41:59,080
Speaker 1: Dade numbers. What happened to Florida over the past twenty years?

870
00:41:59,560 --> 00:42:02,840
Speaker 1: That's actually really like, it's not it's not it's not purple,

871
00:42:03,280 --> 00:42:06,080
Speaker 1: it's red. You know, it's two thousand election. That's Florida.

872
00:42:06,120 --> 00:42:08,839
Speaker 1: It's a state that Democrats we're very, very quite close

873
00:42:08,880 --> 00:42:11,360
Speaker 1: to winning two thousand and eight. Like, what what do

874
00:42:11,400 --> 00:42:14,520
Speaker 1: you guys think happened Avenue, Ohio? Yeah, I mean I

875
00:42:14,560 --> 00:42:17,279
Speaker 1: have to think that it has a lot to do

876
00:42:17,360 --> 00:42:21,480
Speaker 1: with the Latino swim swing too, Republicans. I mean, the

877
00:42:21,520 --> 00:42:24,560
Speaker 1: Miami Dade numbers are a perfect indication of that, and

878
00:42:24,640 --> 00:42:28,640
Speaker 1: especially I mean the Florida Latino community. Latino community tends

879
00:42:28,680 --> 00:42:31,759
Speaker 1: to be more conservative because it's disproportionately in Cuban. So

880
00:42:32,000 --> 00:42:34,560
Speaker 1: if I had to say what happened in Florida, I

881
00:42:34,600 --> 00:42:36,120
Speaker 1: think that's got to be a significant part of it.

882
00:42:36,160 --> 00:42:39,600
Speaker 1: I got one more for you too, the villages. That's

883
00:42:39,640 --> 00:42:41,600
Speaker 1: what happened in the villages. You had all these retirees

884
00:42:41,640 --> 00:42:45,600
Speaker 1: moving there, and there's a lot of boomers, a lot

885
00:42:45,600 --> 00:42:48,719
Speaker 1: of a lot of QAnon faithful down there. One of

886
00:42:48,719 --> 00:42:51,720
Speaker 1: all kinds of stuff. Rick Scott mister cut social Security

887
00:42:51,719 --> 00:42:54,279
Speaker 1: as their senator. So it's a weird state. This is like,

888
00:42:54,320 --> 00:42:59,520
Speaker 1: that's the get Rick's personal profile versus how he is

889
00:42:59,560 --> 00:43:01,799
Speaker 1: in the state actually is again to the whole local thing.

890
00:43:01,880 --> 00:43:04,000
Speaker 1: Like Rick actually speaks fluent Spanish, and he made like

891
00:43:04,040 --> 00:43:06,920
Speaker 1: twelve trips to Puerto Rico whenever he was running. He

892
00:43:07,000 --> 00:43:09,160
Speaker 1: made like Puerto Rico ad a big thing for him.

893
00:43:09,200 --> 00:43:11,839
Speaker 1: I always found that kind of fascinating. I don't know,

894
00:43:12,080 --> 00:43:14,719
Speaker 1: I'm curious for everybody before we all jump in at

895
00:43:14,840 --> 00:43:18,560
Speaker 1: eight PM. A lot of DeSantis bros. Are blowing out

896
00:43:18,640 --> 00:43:21,160
Speaker 1: about his numbers right now. So even my friend Michael

897
00:43:21,160 --> 00:43:23,839
Speaker 1: Brennan Doherty, who generally is not one to go at this,

898
00:43:23,880 --> 00:43:27,600
Speaker 1: he says, quote every political professional, GOP conservative Populace is

899
00:43:27,600 --> 00:43:30,360
Speaker 1: going to look at these Florida numbers and want DeSantis

900
00:43:30,360 --> 00:43:33,960
Speaker 1: as the twenty twenty four nominee. Noah Roffman also, to

901
00:43:34,040 --> 00:43:36,720
Speaker 1: be clear, never Trump guy, but he says, quote Donald

902
00:43:36,760 --> 00:43:39,080
Speaker 1: Trump has spent the last forty eight hours loosing unprovoked

903
00:43:39,080 --> 00:43:41,920
Speaker 1: attacks on DeSantis. If DeSantis only response is a fifteen

904
00:43:41,920 --> 00:43:44,520
Speaker 1: to twenty point statewide victory in Florida, I don't think

905
00:43:44,560 --> 00:43:46,880
Speaker 1: that he needs any other What do you think, Marshall,

906
00:43:47,080 --> 00:43:50,040
Speaker 1: there's a lot of this is this. You did a

907
00:43:50,080 --> 00:43:52,080
Speaker 1: good job of picking two people who I don't think

908
00:43:52,120 --> 00:43:54,120
Speaker 1: are coping. They're actually giving their they're given their real

909
00:43:54,280 --> 00:43:58,360
Speaker 1: But these are stupid opinions, right, the notion that Republican voters,

910
00:43:58,600 --> 00:44:00,960
Speaker 1: like the actual base of the republic voter is saying like, oh,

911
00:44:01,000 --> 00:44:03,440
Speaker 1: look at those fifteen to twenty per but literally no

912
00:44:03,480 --> 00:44:05,879
Speaker 1: one is choosing their twenty twenty Like, hey, Florida, any

913
00:44:06,040 --> 00:44:08,960
Speaker 1: the Republican nominee in twenty twenty four is winning Florida. Yes, Like,

914
00:44:09,000 --> 00:44:10,920
Speaker 1: that's the whole point of this conversation we just had.

915
00:44:11,160 --> 00:44:12,920
Speaker 1: So that's not the debate. The debate and within the

916
00:44:12,960 --> 00:44:15,880
Speaker 1: Republican Party is not like, hey, you know, can you

917
00:44:15,920 --> 00:44:19,040
Speaker 1: win Florida? The debate is who do we want representing us?

918
00:44:19,040 --> 00:44:21,560
Speaker 1: And from my perspective, you talk to any actual There's

919
00:44:21,600 --> 00:44:23,880
Speaker 1: a great tweet on this where someone said people on

920
00:44:23,920 --> 00:44:27,400
Speaker 1: Twitter who are standing for DeSantis right now over Trump

921
00:44:27,400 --> 00:44:29,960
Speaker 1: are disproportioned with people who want to get jobs for

922
00:44:30,080 --> 00:44:33,480
Speaker 1: DeSantis versus like actual Republican voters. Like, talk to any

923
00:44:33,520 --> 00:44:36,920
Speaker 1: of your family members who are Trump people. They'll say DeSantis,

924
00:44:37,160 --> 00:44:39,920
Speaker 1: nice guy. I like him, he can come in twenty

925
00:44:39,920 --> 00:44:42,839
Speaker 1: twenty eight, twenty thirty two. He's young. I like Trump. Yeah,

926
00:44:43,440 --> 00:44:45,680
Speaker 1: I haven't said edual debate and that Kyle has the

927
00:44:45,680 --> 00:44:48,880
Speaker 1: difference of it. They really go ahead privately, having like

928
00:44:48,880 --> 00:44:53,560
Speaker 1: several months now, it's here privately and publicly, so let's here. Look.

929
00:44:53,719 --> 00:44:57,320
Speaker 1: I mean, bottom line is we're looking at the reality

930
00:44:57,600 --> 00:45:00,680
Speaker 1: of a potential indictment for Donald Trump, and not only that,

931
00:45:00,800 --> 00:45:03,480
Speaker 1: you might also look at a conviction for Donald Trump

932
00:45:03,480 --> 00:45:07,400
Speaker 1: because he's got so many lawsuits. I mean I literally

933
00:45:07,440 --> 00:45:10,799
Speaker 1: can't even name them all, that's how many there are. Yeah,

934
00:45:10,880 --> 00:45:12,640
Speaker 1: he said, you know, you have the federal investigation in

935
00:45:12,719 --> 00:45:15,920
Speaker 1: DC over the top secret and classified documents. You have,

936
00:45:16,120 --> 00:45:17,920
Speaker 1: of course, the civil case in New York over all

937
00:45:17,960 --> 00:45:20,640
Speaker 1: of his fraudulent business practices, and that press commons from

938
00:45:20,680 --> 00:45:22,799
Speaker 1: Letitia James. If you haven't seen it, go watch it

939
00:45:22,840 --> 00:45:27,040
Speaker 1: because it's amazing. Like the crimes she alleges are so specific,

940
00:45:27,080 --> 00:45:29,640
Speaker 1: there's so much detail that it's mind blowing anyway, So

941
00:45:29,840 --> 00:45:33,000
Speaker 1: there's all these different cases against Trump. I think an

942
00:45:33,000 --> 00:45:36,319
Speaker 1: indictment is likely. I think conviction is possible. The only

943
00:45:36,320 --> 00:45:38,080
Speaker 1: thing that we're really relying on in granted, this is

944
00:45:38,080 --> 00:45:41,160
Speaker 1: difficult to do, but does Merrick Garland have a pair?

945
00:45:41,400 --> 00:45:42,880
Speaker 1: If he has a pair and he does what he's

946
00:45:42,880 --> 00:45:46,960
Speaker 1: supposed to do. Look, I'm very critical of the Republican

947
00:45:47,000 --> 00:45:50,360
Speaker 1: Party and the Republican base, but you know, Chris and

948
00:45:50,440 --> 00:45:52,319
Speaker 1: I were debating this the other day. Can Donald Trump

949
00:45:52,360 --> 00:45:55,080
Speaker 1: win the Republican primary from prison? I'm a hard no

950
00:45:55,280 --> 00:45:59,840
Speaker 1: on that. I think that it would be Gavis definitely

951
00:46:00,120 --> 00:46:02,520
Speaker 1: not only win, he would win bigger than if he

952
00:46:02,600 --> 00:46:06,160
Speaker 1: was in disagree. I disagree on it. One big thing

953
00:46:06,160 --> 00:46:08,840
Speaker 1: to respond to this on we kind of had attest

954
00:46:08,840 --> 00:46:11,319
Speaker 1: to this already, which is that when when the mar

955
00:46:11,400 --> 00:46:16,319
Speaker 1: Lago raid happened, every single Republican who given everything you

956
00:46:16,360 --> 00:46:18,839
Speaker 1: just start to believe what you just said right, every

957
00:46:18,880 --> 00:46:21,680
Speaker 1: single establishment Republican in the back of their head is like, yeah,

958
00:46:21,719 --> 00:46:24,719
Speaker 1: this is obviously not good. This is definitely bad. They

959
00:46:24,760 --> 00:46:28,440
Speaker 1: wouldn't privately defend it, but they fell on their sports

960
00:46:28,440 --> 00:46:31,120
Speaker 1: for heading time desatus. So when every single time they've

961
00:46:31,120 --> 00:46:34,239
Speaker 1: had an opportunity to implement what you've described, they haven't

962
00:46:34,239 --> 00:46:36,160
Speaker 1: gone for it. I do not see a word of

963
00:46:36,239 --> 00:46:38,200
Speaker 1: Rhonda Santis gets on the debate stage and says, you

964
00:46:38,200 --> 00:46:40,080
Speaker 1: know what, Donald, we both You're gonna be in prison

965
00:46:40,160 --> 00:46:41,960
Speaker 1: this time next year. You're not gonna do the nom

966
00:46:42,080 --> 00:46:43,359
Speaker 1: He needs to do that, don't you need to do

967
00:46:43,480 --> 00:46:46,040
Speaker 1: Look we're talking short term, long term too. I mean,

968
00:46:46,120 --> 00:46:48,239
Speaker 1: I saw the numbers right after that raid. I saw

969
00:46:48,280 --> 00:46:50,800
Speaker 1: that they went up for Trump. But I think it's

970
00:46:51,160 --> 00:46:53,040
Speaker 1: it's a little fake in the long run, in the

971
00:46:53,080 --> 00:46:55,440
Speaker 1: same way that an investigation into Hillary Clinton by the

972
00:46:55,520 --> 00:46:57,800
Speaker 1: FBI didn't help her in the twenty sixteen race. I

973
00:46:57,800 --> 00:46:59,960
Speaker 1: don't think this helps Trump in any way, shape or four.

974
00:47:00,080 --> 00:47:02,600
Speaker 1: And I think in many ways, like the chances of

975
00:47:02,680 --> 00:47:06,680
Speaker 1: him winning becoming president again after everything that's already gone

976
00:47:06,719 --> 00:47:13,160
Speaker 1: on zero. Absolutely get oubliterate everybody, by everybody, by anybody,

977
00:47:13,200 --> 00:47:18,000
Speaker 1: by anybody, Americans. They're over it. Americans are over it.

978
00:47:18,040 --> 00:47:19,840
Speaker 1: I get you have your little clique of thirty percent.

979
00:47:19,960 --> 00:47:22,480
Speaker 1: That's just absolutely psychotic for you. Great, have fun with that.

980
00:47:22,520 --> 00:47:26,920
Speaker 1: Try winning a national election on that's not that's the problem.

981
00:47:27,560 --> 00:47:29,880
Speaker 1: But there are real outside repeal in twenty sixteen. I

982
00:47:29,920 --> 00:47:33,200
Speaker 1: think there are two totally different questions there. One is

983
00:47:33,239 --> 00:47:35,520
Speaker 1: the general election. Let's put that to the side, because

984
00:47:35,560 --> 00:47:43,319
Speaker 1: I do think if he's in prison, I think it's

985
00:47:43,320 --> 00:47:49,879
Speaker 1: a better Republican primary electorate. They're his I mean, he's

986
00:47:49,920 --> 00:47:53,080
Speaker 1: announcing in like eight as it's done, and Ron de

987
00:47:53,160 --> 00:47:57,480
Speaker 1: Santa is like he immediately vent they the moment, and

988
00:47:57,520 --> 00:47:59,640
Speaker 1: that's the same thing that's going to happen. Trump is

989
00:47:59,640 --> 00:48:03,000
Speaker 1: gonna then he's probably going to get indicted, and it's

990
00:48:03,040 --> 00:48:04,840
Speaker 1: going to be another moment where they all have to

991
00:48:04,920 --> 00:48:07,080
Speaker 1: rally to him. And then what I mean, you've already

992
00:48:07,080 --> 00:48:10,720
Speaker 1: filed for presidency and Ron DeSantis has never done anything

993
00:48:10,760 --> 00:48:13,640
Speaker 1: other than these little sort of like you know, subtweet

994
00:48:13,800 --> 00:48:16,600
Speaker 1: jabs at Trump. The minute you come directly for him,

995
00:48:16,600 --> 00:48:19,239
Speaker 1: it is a totally different one. Second, guys, we do

996
00:48:19,320 --> 00:48:21,439
Speaker 1: have our people on standby. I'm just going to gohead

997
00:48:21,440 --> 00:48:23,320
Speaker 1: and tell the crew. Let's go ahead and get Lewis

998
00:48:23,400 --> 00:48:26,840
Speaker 1: ready from oz HQ. I believe because I know that

999
00:48:27,160 --> 00:48:29,560
Speaker 1: we are there, all right, so we actually have him.

1000
00:48:29,719 --> 00:48:31,080
Speaker 1: We have him ready, all right, Let's go ahead and

1001
00:48:31,120 --> 00:48:35,000
Speaker 1: bring him in if we can. Okay, Lewis, how are

1002
00:48:35,040 --> 00:48:37,640
Speaker 1: you so? This is Louis Angels. He's the Doctor OZ event.

1003
00:48:38,160 --> 00:48:40,200
Speaker 1: Thank you very much for our premium SUBJT enabled to

1004
00:48:40,320 --> 00:48:42,279
Speaker 1: be there, Lewis. Give us a sense. What's going on

1005
00:48:42,280 --> 00:48:44,839
Speaker 1: on the ground. You're there at Doctor oz HQ. What's

1006
00:48:44,880 --> 00:48:48,880
Speaker 1: the feeling. Poles are closing very soon? What are you seeing? Absolutely?

1007
00:48:48,880 --> 00:48:51,239
Speaker 1: Thanks for having me on. Guys. Excited to be here. Yep,

1008
00:48:51,320 --> 00:48:53,960
Speaker 1: I'm here at the Doctor OZ event. The last couple

1009
00:48:53,960 --> 00:48:57,440
Speaker 1: of days have been across the state. Came in on Saturday,

1010
00:48:57,520 --> 00:49:01,400
Speaker 1: first thing in Pittsburgh. We headed over to the Donald

1011
00:49:01,400 --> 00:49:04,200
Speaker 1: Trump event that was going on there. Sunday we were

1012
00:49:04,200 --> 00:49:07,000
Speaker 1: at the Bernie Sanders event that was taking place in Pittsburgh.

1013
00:49:07,200 --> 00:49:09,120
Speaker 1: Monday night we were at a John Fetterman event, so

1014
00:49:09,160 --> 00:49:11,080
Speaker 1: we really, you know, talked to all sorts of people

1015
00:49:11,400 --> 00:49:14,560
Speaker 1: all over the place. May I drew the short stick

1016
00:49:14,600 --> 00:49:17,240
Speaker 1: and had to drive over from from Pittsburgh this morning

1017
00:49:17,320 --> 00:49:21,520
Speaker 1: and May the six hour checkover. But we made it. Yes, yeah, yeah,

1018
00:49:21,560 --> 00:49:23,640
Speaker 1: no problem, no problem. Holdough, I'm a little upset. I

1019
00:49:23,719 --> 00:49:25,960
Speaker 1: was expecting there to be potentially some crew to take here.

1020
00:49:26,080 --> 00:49:29,960
Speaker 1: None yet, I hosted. If that changes, we'll play, We'll see.

1021
00:49:30,120 --> 00:49:35,920
Speaker 1: But yes, thank you. I've been saving that one. You know,

1022
00:49:36,480 --> 00:49:38,600
Speaker 1: since you talked to voters who were clearly, you know,

1023
00:49:38,719 --> 00:49:41,440
Speaker 1: very enthusiastic about doctor Oz, or at least voting for him,

1024
00:49:41,480 --> 00:49:44,600
Speaker 1: very enthusiastic about Fetterman, did you see a difference in

1025
00:49:44,719 --> 00:49:48,640
Speaker 1: terms of, you know, how they were viewing the key issues.

1026
00:49:49,480 --> 00:49:51,440
Speaker 1: One thing I noted from some of the coverage that

1027
00:49:51,480 --> 00:49:54,000
Speaker 1: you all at status Ku had sent us is the

1028
00:49:54,040 --> 00:49:57,719
Speaker 1: Fetterman voters talked a lot about doctor Oz's character. The

1029
00:49:58,160 --> 00:50:01,640
Speaker 1: Oz voters talked more about you know, inflation, crime, immigration.

1030
00:50:01,719 --> 00:50:04,719
Speaker 1: They had sort of like big picture national issues in mind.

1031
00:50:04,800 --> 00:50:06,640
Speaker 1: Was that a sort of consistent theme with the voters

1032
00:50:06,680 --> 00:50:10,160
Speaker 1: that you spoke with. I would say that's fairly consistent. Yes.

1033
00:50:10,880 --> 00:50:12,479
Speaker 1: One thing that I noted that I was a little

1034
00:50:12,480 --> 00:50:16,880
Speaker 1: bit surprised about, you know, from Afar looking online online,

1035
00:50:16,960 --> 00:50:20,240
Speaker 1: Fetterman looks like the campaign has tons of energy behind

1036
00:50:20,280 --> 00:50:23,759
Speaker 1: it and everything in person, I haven't seen it as much.

1037
00:50:24,040 --> 00:50:26,480
Speaker 1: If I'm being honest, when you compare Saturday night at

1038
00:50:26,520 --> 00:50:29,839
Speaker 1: the Trump event and the energy that was there, some

1039
00:50:29,880 --> 00:50:32,359
Speaker 1: of it, I'll be it crazy, but there's definitely an

1040
00:50:32,520 --> 00:50:35,400
Speaker 1: energy around all of that movement still. And then you

1041
00:50:35,440 --> 00:50:38,759
Speaker 1: compare it to on Sunday. The Bernie Sanders event that

1042
00:50:38,800 --> 00:50:41,600
Speaker 1: I was at was directly across the street from a

1043
00:50:41,640 --> 00:50:45,400
Speaker 1: big college in Pittsburgh, dorms right across the street. There

1044
00:50:45,480 --> 00:50:47,879
Speaker 1: were maybe four or five hundred people there. The park

1045
00:50:47,960 --> 00:50:51,040
Speaker 1: wasn't even close to full, and that was surprising to me.

1046
00:50:51,080 --> 00:50:54,880
Speaker 1: I mean, Bernie Sanders and college students, that's his easy

1047
00:50:54,920 --> 00:50:57,480
Speaker 1: demographic to get them over there, and they weren't showing up.

1048
00:50:57,480 --> 00:51:00,319
Speaker 1: And then again last night at the Fetterman event, same

1049
00:51:00,400 --> 00:51:02,200
Speaker 1: kind of deal. It was a little bit further out

1050
00:51:02,200 --> 00:51:05,799
Speaker 1: of Pittsburgh, but the turnout was really not not what

1051
00:51:05,840 --> 00:51:08,479
Speaker 1: I was expecting. The energy was fairly low. I will

1052
00:51:08,480 --> 00:51:12,279
Speaker 1: say Fetterman's speech last night was probably the best I

1053
00:51:12,320 --> 00:51:16,680
Speaker 1: had heard him speaking so far, but unfortunately I think

1054
00:51:16,680 --> 00:51:19,480
Speaker 1: that might be a little too little, too late. That's interesting.

1055
00:51:19,520 --> 00:51:21,200
Speaker 1: That's why it's so valuable to have you on the ground.

1056
00:51:21,200 --> 00:51:22,759
Speaker 1: You know, it's not something that we can really get

1057
00:51:22,960 --> 00:51:24,839
Speaker 1: a sense of you know, in the interviews and stuff

1058
00:51:24,840 --> 00:51:26,080
Speaker 1: that you were giving for us, it was a lot

1059
00:51:26,080 --> 00:51:29,480
Speaker 1: of national talk about inflation from the gopeople. Have you

1060
00:51:29,480 --> 00:51:31,640
Speaker 1: talked to any swing voters? I'm curious, like any people.

1061
00:51:31,880 --> 00:51:33,520
Speaker 1: First of all, let's be clear. Some people say the

1062
00:51:33,560 --> 00:51:35,319
Speaker 1: swing voters, but then they're like, I would never vote

1063
00:51:35,320 --> 00:51:39,600
Speaker 1: for xmy life. But any actual swing voters in your estimation,

1064
00:51:40,160 --> 00:51:41,920
Speaker 1: maybe the people who made up their mind in the

1065
00:51:42,000 --> 00:51:43,880
Speaker 1: last couple of days. What are they saying? What is

1066
00:51:43,880 --> 00:51:47,160
Speaker 1: at the top of their mind? For sure. So a

1067
00:51:47,200 --> 00:51:49,080
Speaker 1: couple of people that I spoke to that were interesting,

1068
00:51:49,120 --> 00:51:51,000
Speaker 1: And then a couple of folks I spoke to outside

1069
00:51:51,040 --> 00:51:52,600
Speaker 1: while the press were waiting in line to get in

1070
00:51:52,680 --> 00:51:55,799
Speaker 1: here today said that anecdotally they had heard this a

1071
00:51:55,800 --> 00:52:02,680
Speaker 1: lot too. The Oz Shapiro vot exists in decent number.

1072
00:52:02,760 --> 00:52:06,879
Speaker 1: I would say, wow, yeah, yeah, and I heard again.

1073
00:52:06,920 --> 00:52:08,560
Speaker 1: I had the six hour car ride today, so I

1074
00:52:08,640 --> 00:52:11,040
Speaker 1: listened to your show from yesterday just to see what

1075
00:52:11,080 --> 00:52:13,040
Speaker 1: you all were talking about, and I heard one of

1076
00:52:13,080 --> 00:52:14,440
Speaker 1: you at one point say that you didn't think that

1077
00:52:14,440 --> 00:52:16,200
Speaker 1: that was gonna be a thing, And I was actually surprised.

1078
00:52:16,280 --> 00:52:19,640
Speaker 1: Yesterday I've met two of them myself just on the street.

1079
00:52:20,520 --> 00:52:23,480
Speaker 1: You know, it's one thing doing interviews with people on

1080
00:52:23,560 --> 00:52:26,319
Speaker 1: camera and everything. It's a whole other thing in the Uber,

1081
00:52:26,560 --> 00:52:29,040
Speaker 1: you know, talking to the hotel front desk person. And

1082
00:52:29,080 --> 00:52:30,680
Speaker 1: I feel like I've learned a lot more doing that

1083
00:52:30,719 --> 00:52:33,600
Speaker 1: sort of thing. I've got one good anecdote from an

1084
00:52:33,640 --> 00:52:37,520
Speaker 1: Uber driver. He was like a self described conservative, and

1085
00:52:37,600 --> 00:52:39,400
Speaker 1: he was the first person actually to tell me that

1086
00:52:39,480 --> 00:52:41,400
Speaker 1: he was a you know, somebody who's gonna vote for Oz.

1087
00:52:41,680 --> 00:52:44,560
Speaker 1: But to him, Mastriano was a little too out there.

1088
00:52:45,480 --> 00:52:48,240
Speaker 1: He said that Oz kind of wrote the line well

1089
00:52:48,400 --> 00:52:52,680
Speaker 1: on the issue of abortion. This gentleman was a self

1090
00:52:52,719 --> 00:52:57,160
Speaker 1: described pro life, but he says that, you know, a

1091
00:52:57,160 --> 00:52:59,799
Speaker 1: lot of the Republicans running nationally have gone too far,

1092
00:53:00,400 --> 00:53:03,520
Speaker 1: and that doctor Oz is kind of, you know, written

1093
00:53:03,600 --> 00:53:07,200
Speaker 1: the more moderate line, if you will, and kind of

1094
00:53:07,600 --> 00:53:09,719
Speaker 1: making more compromise. Maybe not moderate, it might not be

1095
00:53:09,760 --> 00:53:12,480
Speaker 1: the right word, but that he's a little bit open

1096
00:53:12,520 --> 00:53:17,160
Speaker 1: to the compromise. Okay, Yeah, very interesting stuff. Cool. Thank

1097
00:53:17,200 --> 00:53:19,120
Speaker 1: you so much. We're going to check back in with

1098
00:53:19,239 --> 00:53:21,520
Speaker 1: you later, keep us posted, stay in touch, and let

1099
00:53:21,640 --> 00:53:23,800
Speaker 1: us know what you were seeing there on the ground.

1100
00:53:23,800 --> 00:53:27,600
Speaker 1: Than we really appreciate it absolutely, Thank you for pleasure. Okay,

1101
00:53:27,680 --> 00:53:30,279
Speaker 1: so I think we have the next guy who is up.

1102
00:53:30,440 --> 00:53:33,120
Speaker 1: Let's go ahead and see control room if we good

1103
00:53:33,480 --> 00:53:36,239
Speaker 1: John to go at the fetterment event. All right, we're

1104
00:53:36,239 --> 00:53:42,279
Speaker 1: not gonnat anything for so okay, John at the fan event.

1105
00:53:42,360 --> 00:53:46,719
Speaker 1: Great to see you, John, Welcome, Thank you. So just

1106
00:53:46,719 --> 00:53:48,799
Speaker 1: give us a little bit of a vibes check there

1107
00:53:49,040 --> 00:53:51,400
Speaker 1: and what you have heard from voters while you're on

1108
00:53:51,440 --> 00:53:58,200
Speaker 1: the ground. So, uh, people haven't actually started coming into

1109
00:53:58,280 --> 00:54:03,560
Speaker 1: the the uh to hear the arena, it's mostly just

1110
00:54:03,640 --> 00:54:06,640
Speaker 1: pressing staff. I guess they'll sell letting people in in

1111
00:54:06,680 --> 00:54:10,880
Speaker 1: a few minutes around eight. Uh. I haven't spoke with

1112
00:54:10,920 --> 00:54:14,120
Speaker 1: anybody outside here, but you know I was with Lewis

1113
00:54:14,239 --> 00:54:19,640
Speaker 1: this whole weekend and and yesterday. Basically a lot of

1114
00:54:19,680 --> 00:54:23,120
Speaker 1: people are are looking forward to voting for Frediman. Haven't

1115
00:54:23,160 --> 00:54:27,600
Speaker 1: really spoke with any odd supporters except at the Trump rally.

1116
00:54:29,360 --> 00:54:32,440
Speaker 1: You know they're not they're not as excited for Oz,

1117
00:54:32,600 --> 00:54:35,319
Speaker 1: but you know they're going with him because Trump is

1118
00:54:35,480 --> 00:54:38,800
Speaker 1: endorsing him, basically, got it. Uh. So you know whoever,

1119
00:54:38,840 --> 00:54:42,400
Speaker 1: whoever Trump's Trump's going with, they're they're going with you know,

1120
00:54:42,560 --> 00:54:47,200
Speaker 1: and uh, you know, actually speak with uh some people

1121
00:54:47,520 --> 00:54:52,359
Speaker 1: at the health low a seconds, No problem, John, It's

1122
00:54:52,400 --> 00:54:58,040
Speaker 1: all good. Am I here, John, We're gonna we're gonna

1123
00:54:58,080 --> 00:54:59,560
Speaker 1: check back in with you later in the night when

1124
00:54:59,640 --> 00:55:01,680
Speaker 1: folks are arriving there and we start to get some

1125
00:55:01,840 --> 00:55:03,840
Speaker 1: whole results so we can see what is going on

1126
00:55:03,880 --> 00:55:05,799
Speaker 1: there on the ground. Thank you so much for taking

1127
00:55:05,840 --> 00:55:08,319
Speaker 1: the time with us. And by the way, guys, both

1128
00:55:08,360 --> 00:55:12,200
Speaker 1: of these folks are with Status kup. They enable all

1129
00:55:12,200 --> 00:55:15,600
Speaker 1: of our on the ground reporting. Actually, you guys, Freemium

1130
00:55:15,600 --> 00:55:19,040
Speaker 1: subscribers enable that reminder ten percent discount. It's in the description.

1131
00:55:19,120 --> 00:55:21,720
Speaker 1: Give it ascription, but also make sure you give status

1132
00:55:21,760 --> 00:55:23,919
Speaker 1: kup a follow because they're doing great work and it's

1133
00:55:24,239 --> 00:55:27,000
Speaker 1: very expensive to travel around the country and they are

1134
00:55:27,040 --> 00:55:29,680
Speaker 1: doing that work which really benefits us and benefits the

1135
00:55:29,840 --> 00:55:32,680
Speaker 1: entire independent media service system. Yeah, it really does help

1136
00:55:32,719 --> 00:55:34,399
Speaker 1: to you know, to have those guys. They travel all

1137
00:55:34,440 --> 00:55:37,320
Speaker 1: over and you know, Louis in particular finding those interviews

1138
00:55:37,320 --> 00:55:38,960
Speaker 1: and he filmed some of that stuff for us that

1139
00:55:39,000 --> 00:55:41,320
Speaker 1: we played on the show, which was really really valuable.

1140
00:55:41,320 --> 00:55:44,600
Speaker 1: So look seven fifty five, everybody, if things are going

1141
00:55:44,680 --> 00:55:47,920
Speaker 1: to close five minutes, it's interesting. Let me make it now,

1142
00:55:48,120 --> 00:55:49,680
Speaker 1: go ahead. Yeah, I was going to say, let me

1143
00:55:49,719 --> 00:55:53,720
Speaker 1: give you the numbers where they're at with a small

1144
00:55:53,760 --> 00:55:56,759
Speaker 1: percentage of the vote in, which means these numbers are

1145
00:55:56,800 --> 00:55:59,279
Speaker 1: not representative of the entire state. But I just want

1146
00:55:59,320 --> 00:56:00,719
Speaker 1: to give you a little bit of a sense of

1147
00:56:00,760 --> 00:56:03,160
Speaker 1: where things are right now early in the night. So

1148
00:56:03,160 --> 00:56:05,840
Speaker 1: if we look at Florida, which actually, according to New

1149
00:56:05,920 --> 00:56:09,839
Speaker 1: York Times, has seventy one percent of votes in, so, yeah,

1150
00:56:09,920 --> 00:56:12,200
Speaker 1: decent percentage of the state. And I'm just talking Senate

1151
00:56:12,280 --> 00:56:15,520
Speaker 1: right now, Rubio is up on val Deming's fifty five

1152
00:56:15,640 --> 00:56:17,560
Speaker 1: to forty four. I'd say that's roughly in the ballpark

1153
00:56:17,560 --> 00:56:21,040
Speaker 1: of what we're kind of expected there. Over in Georgia

1154
00:56:21,160 --> 00:56:23,360
Speaker 1: right now, you only have twenty two percent of the

1155
00:56:23,440 --> 00:56:25,839
Speaker 1: vote in, so that is still extremely early. So these

1156
00:56:25,920 --> 00:56:28,600
Speaker 1: numbers will definitely change, will definitely tighten up. But you've

1157
00:56:28,640 --> 00:56:32,359
Speaker 1: got Warnock at fifty eight percent to herschel Walker at

1158
00:56:32,520 --> 00:56:34,880
Speaker 1: forty percent. That again is with according to the New

1159
00:56:34,920 --> 00:56:37,840
Speaker 1: York Times, twenty two percent of the vote in. You

1160
00:56:37,960 --> 00:56:41,560
Speaker 1: have in North Carolina the Democrat. This is with forty

1161
00:56:41,600 --> 00:56:45,400
Speaker 1: two percent of the vote in. Not sure what parts

1162
00:56:45,440 --> 00:56:47,680
Speaker 1: of the state but again these numbers will definitely change.

1163
00:56:47,760 --> 00:56:50,520
Speaker 1: You have the Democrat Sherry Beasley up fifty five percent

1164
00:56:50,560 --> 00:56:53,399
Speaker 1: to Ted Budd forty three percent. Hashtag stop the count.

1165
00:56:54,719 --> 00:56:58,600
Speaker 1: Over in Ohio you have just six percent in and

1166
00:56:58,680 --> 00:57:02,279
Speaker 1: again Tim Ryan up sixty two. JD Vans thirty eight

1167
00:57:02,520 --> 00:57:04,960
Speaker 1: very early, definitely going to change. And then you have

1168
00:57:05,120 --> 00:57:07,520
Speaker 1: over in New Hampshire. This is one that Democrats got

1169
00:57:07,600 --> 00:57:11,480
Speaker 1: super nervous about super late. And by the way, this

1170
00:57:11,640 --> 00:57:14,160
Speaker 1: is also a state where they decided to spend a

1171
00:57:14,160 --> 00:57:16,800
Speaker 1: bunch of money trying to make sure that a psycho

1172
00:57:16,840 --> 00:57:20,320
Speaker 1: election denier got the nomination on the Republican side. Now

1173
00:57:20,360 --> 00:57:23,560
Speaker 1: that guy is in striking distance of actually winning a

1174
00:57:23,560 --> 00:57:26,160
Speaker 1: Senate seat. Way to go, guys. Anyway, at this point,

1175
00:57:26,240 --> 00:57:28,600
Speaker 1: Maggie Hassen does have the lead, that is, with a

1176
00:57:28,680 --> 00:57:31,320
Speaker 1: mere ten percent of votes in. She's at sixty three

1177
00:57:31,360 --> 00:57:34,720
Speaker 1: percent and Don Baldock election denier as at thirty five percent. Ye,

1178
00:57:34,800 --> 00:57:38,720
Speaker 1: we'll endorsed, by the way, that's right. What's interesting about

1179
00:57:38,720 --> 00:57:42,320
Speaker 1: Baldock is that, as I'm sayg earlier in our last show,

1180
00:57:42,360 --> 00:57:44,720
Speaker 1: there is no early voting in New Hampshire, like, not

1181
00:57:45,080 --> 00:57:48,320
Speaker 1: even close. So the election result is much more reflection

1182
00:57:48,360 --> 00:57:51,600
Speaker 1: of the electorate today as opposed to let's say two weeks,

1183
00:57:51,760 --> 00:57:54,640
Speaker 1: three weeks. It could have some given the fact that

1184
00:57:54,640 --> 00:57:57,480
Speaker 1: things were narrowing and moving much more in Republican direction.

1185
00:57:57,720 --> 00:58:00,720
Speaker 1: Everybody always talks about momentum and like whether that matters

1186
00:58:00,840 --> 00:58:03,160
Speaker 1: or not. I tend to think especially less in the

1187
00:58:03,160 --> 00:58:06,400
Speaker 1: democratic context, given mail in balloting and the way that

1188
00:58:06,520 --> 00:58:09,280
Speaker 1: the chang is generally nationally. But to have that dynamic

1189
00:58:09,360 --> 00:58:11,800
Speaker 1: in New Hampshire is pretty interesting, Marshall. And one thing

1190
00:58:11,800 --> 00:58:14,160
Speaker 1: I want to bring up that came through the correspondence.

1191
00:58:14,160 --> 00:58:16,600
Speaker 1: I can't believe we haven't talked about this. Was Trump

1192
00:58:16,680 --> 00:58:20,000
Speaker 1: a positive or a negative on the trail this year? Right?

1193
00:58:20,040 --> 00:58:23,160
Speaker 1: Because he was. He made the point that people, if

1194
00:58:23,160 --> 00:58:25,000
Speaker 1: you're at that, you know Trump show, and I think

1195
00:58:25,000 --> 00:58:27,080
Speaker 1: that's the way to describe it. You're definitely there for Trump,

1196
00:58:27,360 --> 00:58:29,320
Speaker 1: not for Oz. But there's a lot of controversy of

1197
00:58:29,520 --> 00:58:31,840
Speaker 1: like is Trump going to announce a few days ago?

1198
00:58:32,240 --> 00:58:34,280
Speaker 1: Is Trump starting off? It's really a big deal. So

1199
00:58:34,280 --> 00:58:38,320
Speaker 1: where did we come to on positive or negative? I mean, oh,

1200
00:58:38,480 --> 00:58:43,080
Speaker 1: my opinion is overall negative because he's the reason why

1201
00:58:43,120 --> 00:58:47,160
Speaker 1: Republicans have such poor candidates, especially walk Many of these races.

1202
00:58:47,360 --> 00:58:51,240
Speaker 1: I means is him Walker is him? Didn't he like

1203
00:58:51,360 --> 00:58:55,240
Speaker 1: Masters is him? And not only that, but then when

1204
00:58:55,240 --> 00:58:58,360
Speaker 1: you look at the number of like Trump is stopped

1205
00:58:58,400 --> 00:59:01,080
Speaker 1: the steal. And so when you have all these election deniers,

1206
00:59:01,080 --> 00:59:04,400
Speaker 1: people like Masterrano, I mean, there's no reason Republicans shouldn't

1207
00:59:04,400 --> 00:59:08,080
Speaker 1: be winning the Pennsylvania governor's race this year in Mastrano

1208
00:59:08,200 --> 00:59:10,480
Speaker 1: very likely to lose. So when you look at the

1209
00:59:10,480 --> 00:59:13,240
Speaker 1: way that he shaped the candidate field and made it

1210
00:59:13,520 --> 00:59:17,120
Speaker 1: much poor quality, I think you have to say he's

1211
00:59:17,120 --> 00:59:19,000
Speaker 1: an etneg to be fair, though you know, I think

1212
00:59:19,040 --> 00:59:21,560
Speaker 1: Mastriano he didn't endorse him until like two days before

1213
00:59:21,600 --> 00:59:24,440
Speaker 1: because Mostreiano was just gonna win. So it's really Trump.

1214
00:59:24,440 --> 00:59:27,680
Speaker 1: There's no January sixth, there is no election to stop

1215
00:59:27,720 --> 00:59:30,120
Speaker 1: the steal. So when I look at that holistically, you

1216
00:59:30,200 --> 00:59:32,440
Speaker 1: have to say, like, you know, Kyle and I were

1217
00:59:32,440 --> 00:59:34,360
Speaker 1: talking about this Earli, you should actually make this point, Kyle,

1218
00:59:34,400 --> 00:59:36,520
Speaker 1: because I'm just stealing it from you. But right now

1219
00:59:36,520 --> 00:59:38,560
Speaker 1: you have a bunch of Republicans who are elected, who

1220
00:59:38,680 --> 00:59:40,800
Speaker 1: go along with a bunch of nonsense but do not

1221
00:59:40,920 --> 00:59:42,800
Speaker 1: really believe it. You're about to have a lot of

1222
00:59:42,880 --> 00:59:45,960
Speaker 1: people who are actuallyable believers, right, and that's that is

1223
00:59:46,040 --> 00:59:48,680
Speaker 1: kind of scary. Yeah, I mean, I think it's they're

1224
00:59:48,720 --> 00:59:53,040
Speaker 1: in an impossible place right now because you can't really

1225
00:59:53,760 --> 00:59:55,880
Speaker 1: win a Republican primary. You're more likely to win a

1226
00:59:55,880 --> 00:59:57,960
Speaker 1: Republican primary if you have Trump's acting, but then you're

1227
00:59:57,960 --> 01:00:00,680
Speaker 1: definitely less likely to win the general because you're not

1228
01:00:00,680 --> 01:00:02,360
Speaker 1: going to get the independence. You're not going to get

1229
01:00:02,360 --> 01:00:04,280
Speaker 1: the moderates, you're not going to get the normies, you're

1230
01:00:04,280 --> 01:00:05,760
Speaker 1: not going to get the young voters. You're not going

1231
01:00:05,800 --> 01:00:09,320
Speaker 1: to get the women. You're not going to get them exactly.

1232
01:00:09,360 --> 01:00:11,080
Speaker 1: He's the only one who's like bucking the trend. But

1233
01:00:11,360 --> 01:00:14,800
Speaker 1: generally speaking, yeah, it's difficult. It's it's difficult for these candidates,

1234
01:00:14,840 --> 01:00:17,080
Speaker 1: and it's sort of like, you know, a deal with

1235
01:00:17,120 --> 01:00:19,000
Speaker 1: the devil effectively, like you'll get me through the primary,

1236
01:00:19,000 --> 01:00:20,720
Speaker 1: then I'll hit a brick wall in the general. Thanks, coach.

1237
01:00:20,720 --> 01:00:22,360
Speaker 1: You know what's the crazy thing is that carry? You know?

1238
01:00:22,520 --> 01:00:25,000
Speaker 1: Trump said today that he'll be announcing his VP pick

1239
01:00:25,160 --> 01:00:27,040
Speaker 1: very soon. I think it's going to be Carrie Lake.

1240
01:00:27,160 --> 01:00:30,880
Speaker 1: I really do. You know he loves the one thing

1241
01:00:30,960 --> 01:00:33,280
Speaker 1: I because I was thinking about this earlier because I

1242
01:00:33,320 --> 01:00:36,040
Speaker 1: bought that. I buy that too. I think he really

1243
01:00:36,160 --> 01:00:40,360
Speaker 1: likes her, but he also needs her there. Yeah, you know,

1244
01:00:40,520 --> 01:00:43,400
Speaker 1: like it's there's a it's important for him to have

1245
01:00:43,480 --> 01:00:46,200
Speaker 1: his election denial people in place for next time around

1246
01:00:46,200 --> 01:00:47,920
Speaker 1: to make sure it can swing in his director. I don't.

1247
01:00:47,920 --> 01:00:51,000
Speaker 1: I also don't believe him because I think of I

1248
01:00:51,040 --> 01:00:53,360
Speaker 1: hate doing the whole like think of the apprentices. I

1249
01:00:53,480 --> 01:00:56,640
Speaker 1: think of Trump. But why would Trump declare his VP

1250
01:00:57,320 --> 01:01:00,160
Speaker 1: VP candidates so early? Like it should be a thing,

1251
01:01:00,200 --> 01:01:03,120
Speaker 1: It should be entertaining, There should be auditions in trouts

1252
01:01:03,120 --> 01:01:06,320
Speaker 1: and look, Carrie Lake, Carrie Lake could totally fall in

1253
01:01:06,360 --> 01:01:09,360
Speaker 1: her face. Oh yeah, totally fall in her face. If

1254
01:01:09,360 --> 01:01:12,040
Speaker 1: there was an environment where Carrie Lake was going to succeed.

1255
01:01:12,400 --> 01:01:16,160
Speaker 1: It's charismatic as how Carrie Lake against a mediocre Democrat

1256
01:01:16,440 --> 01:01:19,840
Speaker 1: during a red tsunami election, she can get into office

1257
01:01:19,880 --> 01:01:22,760
Speaker 1: when voters aren't purely thinking of inflations. It's not as

1258
01:01:22,840 --> 01:01:25,800
Speaker 1: much like the governor's issue as much and totally fall flat.

1259
01:01:25,800 --> 01:01:27,520
Speaker 1: So I just I think I think Trump is not

1260
01:01:27,520 --> 01:01:29,320
Speaker 1: true true about that. You might be right. Okay, it's

1261
01:01:29,360 --> 01:01:31,600
Speaker 1: eight oh one pm here on the East Coast, So

1262
01:01:31,640 --> 01:01:39,840
Speaker 1: here are the polls where they have closed Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Kansas, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri,

1263
01:01:40,040 --> 01:01:45,200
Speaker 1: New Jersey, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania, oh Boy Rhode Island,

1264
01:01:45,360 --> 01:01:50,400
Speaker 1: South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, and here in Washington, d C. So, Pennsylvania,

1265
01:01:50,440 --> 01:01:53,000
Speaker 1: obviously that's going to be the one that we're all watching.

1266
01:01:53,400 --> 01:01:56,600
Speaker 1: I don't know, I'm I really am fascinated to see

1267
01:01:56,680 --> 01:01:59,280
Speaker 1: how it all comes out. Reminder that the Pennsylvania Secretary

1268
01:01:59,320 --> 01:02:01,240
Speaker 1: of State has all already come out and said that

1269
01:02:01,400 --> 01:02:03,480
Speaker 1: we are not going to likely to know the results

1270
01:02:03,480 --> 01:02:06,280
Speaker 1: for several days there, So everybody hold on to your hats,

1271
01:02:06,520 --> 01:02:09,400
Speaker 1: especially if it is as close as people are indicating

1272
01:02:09,600 --> 01:02:13,000
Speaker 1: some early vote numbers coming out some place in the Midwest.

1273
01:02:13,000 --> 01:02:15,920
Speaker 1: They already called the race for Todd Young winning his

1274
01:02:16,200 --> 01:02:19,560
Speaker 1: reelection in Indiana. Ohio, We've only got nine percent of

1275
01:02:19,560 --> 01:02:22,360
Speaker 1: the vote that's come in there right now. Connecticut they've

1276
01:02:22,360 --> 01:02:25,800
Speaker 1: called the race for Richard Blumenthal. Literally the moment the

1277
01:02:25,800 --> 01:02:27,919
Speaker 1: polls closed, they went ahead and called the race. Peter

1278
01:02:28,000 --> 01:02:31,360
Speaker 1: Welsh also News Center that we in Vermont, they went

1279
01:02:31,400 --> 01:02:33,280
Speaker 1: ahead and they called that for him, and then Maryland,

1280
01:02:33,360 --> 01:02:36,200
Speaker 1: Chris van Holland winning his reelection in Maryland. Basically no

1281
01:02:36,960 --> 01:02:40,360
Speaker 1: major upset there. James got there, so they go ahead.

1282
01:02:40,400 --> 01:02:41,760
Speaker 1: I don't know if you mentioned this yet, but they

1283
01:02:41,840 --> 01:02:45,240
Speaker 1: called Florida for DeSantis and Rubio. Yes, so they did that.

1284
01:02:45,280 --> 01:02:47,040
Speaker 1: And then also, this is going back about twenty minutes

1285
01:02:47,120 --> 01:02:48,640
Speaker 1: or so, but I want to bring it up. Marjorie

1286
01:02:48,640 --> 01:02:51,120
Speaker 1: Taylor Green has officially been reelected. Oh well, you know,

1287
01:02:51,400 --> 01:02:53,560
Speaker 1: that's a great question in terms that's a good example

1288
01:02:53,600 --> 01:02:55,680
Speaker 1: in terms of these scam or it's not scam candidates.

1289
01:02:55,680 --> 01:02:58,919
Speaker 1: But you know, she believes, she believes. I'm not saying

1290
01:02:58,960 --> 01:03:01,760
Speaker 1: to hurt the person running a answer that raised some

1291
01:03:01,880 --> 01:03:05,120
Speaker 1: fifteen million dollars. That's as It's like those Republicans are

1292
01:03:05,160 --> 01:03:07,160
Speaker 1: run against AOC, we don't have a chance in hell,

1293
01:03:07,160 --> 01:03:09,240
Speaker 1: and they end up raising like twenty million. So if

1294
01:03:09,280 --> 01:03:10,920
Speaker 1: you're one of those people, don't fall for one of

1295
01:03:10,920 --> 01:03:13,280
Speaker 1: those ads. He was like, I'm gonna take on Margie

1296
01:03:13,320 --> 01:03:16,480
Speaker 1: Taylor Green is ilhan Omar wins re election by seventy

1297
01:03:16,520 --> 01:03:20,240
Speaker 1: three percent. People like, it's not hers. The race is

1298
01:03:20,240 --> 01:03:23,720
Speaker 1: actually pretty like your scare candidate ads with their problem.

1299
01:03:23,720 --> 01:03:26,560
Speaker 1: I think Marshall, no TV ads at all and she

1300
01:03:26,600 --> 01:03:32,280
Speaker 1: almost lost the cameral sauce no republics. I'm talking about

1301
01:03:32,280 --> 01:03:34,560
Speaker 1: the oppositional candidate. It's not in the pro fair enough.

1302
01:03:34,600 --> 01:03:38,120
Speaker 1: So I have some interesting numbers out of Kentucky where

1303
01:03:38,120 --> 01:03:43,560
Speaker 1: they have an anti abortion ballot initiative. Voters are are

1304
01:03:43,600 --> 01:03:46,880
Speaker 1: also casting ballots on So this is again from Daniel

1305
01:03:46,920 --> 01:03:49,360
Speaker 1: and Shaneyan a Bolts magazine. He says that the pro

1306
01:03:49,560 --> 01:03:53,360
Speaker 1: choice side in Kentucky has a chance to defeat the

1307
01:03:53,400 --> 01:03:57,200
Speaker 1: anti abortion referendum. So it's it's early, only ten percent

1308
01:03:57,240 --> 01:04:00,680
Speaker 1: reporting Rand Paul, who's already been declared the winner based

1309
01:04:00,680 --> 01:04:02,280
Speaker 1: on what they have been so far. But he leads

1310
01:04:02,280 --> 01:04:06,000
Speaker 1: fifty seven to forty three. But the anti abortion referendum

1311
01:04:06,040 --> 01:04:09,880
Speaker 1: is actually down by ten points. We saw this reserve

1312
01:04:10,480 --> 01:04:12,520
Speaker 1: so huge divite. I mean that means you have a

1313
01:04:12,600 --> 01:04:15,800
Speaker 1: huge percentage of the kentuckt population that is like yes

1314
01:04:15,840 --> 01:04:19,120
Speaker 1: to Ran Paul, no to this anti abortion referendum. So

1315
01:04:20,000 --> 01:04:21,800
Speaker 1: is absolutely fascinating. So let's dig in a little bit

1316
01:04:21,840 --> 01:04:24,200
Speaker 1: to the DeSantis numbers. Everybody calling it now here guys,

1317
01:04:24,240 --> 01:04:26,800
Speaker 1: he is at fifty seven percent of the vote. Well,

1318
01:04:27,040 --> 01:04:29,520
Speaker 1: Charlie Christ at forty two. This is with seventy three

1319
01:04:29,880 --> 01:04:32,840
Speaker 1: percent in all major networks. Everybody go ahead and calling

1320
01:04:32,920 --> 01:04:35,800
Speaker 1: him for Ron DeSantis but leading by fifteen points, Charlie

1321
01:04:35,840 --> 01:04:38,480
Speaker 1: crist I mean, barely winning the election by what less

1322
01:04:38,480 --> 01:04:42,320
Speaker 1: than point one percent something last time around against Andrew

1323
01:04:42,360 --> 01:04:45,680
Speaker 1: gil just staer stonning. This will be one of the

1324
01:04:45,680 --> 01:04:49,200
Speaker 1: major national stories coming out of this, no question, Marco Rubio,

1325
01:04:49,280 --> 01:04:52,640
Speaker 1: as you said, already getting declared the winner at eight PM,

1326
01:04:52,720 --> 01:04:55,160
Speaker 1: which is crazy. I mean, you know, to have Florida,

1327
01:04:55,200 --> 01:04:59,800
Speaker 1: that's supposed for my entire lifetime, Florida, Ohio. These states

1328
01:04:59,840 --> 01:05:02,600
Speaker 1: were considered the major bell weathers. Now what is it.

1329
01:05:02,600 --> 01:05:05,240
Speaker 1: We're talking about Georgia, We're talking about Arizona, We're talking

1330
01:05:05,280 --> 01:05:08,160
Speaker 1: about the Midwest, places that should not be in play

1331
01:05:08,240 --> 01:05:10,480
Speaker 1: or never were. And you know, in really the political

1332
01:05:10,560 --> 01:05:13,640
Speaker 1: environment all of us came up really shifted. Well, I

1333
01:05:13,680 --> 01:05:16,520
Speaker 1: mean now for Democrat. Democrats have this great way of

1334
01:05:16,600 --> 01:05:19,400
Speaker 1: being like, oh, that's state Ohio. We don't care about

1335
01:05:19,440 --> 01:05:23,200
Speaker 1: that state anymore. Let's Obama Attle Greener. Yeah, I mean

1336
01:05:23,600 --> 01:05:25,960
Speaker 1: that's a red state. Forgot about that place. But yeah,

1337
01:05:25,960 --> 01:05:28,400
Speaker 1: I mean it's really shifted now they're focused more on,

1338
01:05:28,760 --> 01:05:31,960
Speaker 1: you know, the sun belt state certainly Georgia, you know,

1339
01:05:32,040 --> 01:05:34,320
Speaker 1: North Carolina was a big hope for a while. Those

1340
01:05:34,320 --> 01:05:37,880
Speaker 1: hopes have faded a little bit. But certainly Arizona is

1341
01:05:38,160 --> 01:05:40,800
Speaker 1: new turf for for Democrats in terms of you know,

1342
01:05:40,920 --> 01:05:43,080
Speaker 1: it was not long ago where it is very difficult

1343
01:05:43,120 --> 01:05:45,480
Speaker 1: for Democrats to win in Arizona. And now you have

1344
01:05:45,560 --> 01:05:50,120
Speaker 1: Mark Kelly there, you know, favored. It's far from over,

1345
01:05:50,240 --> 01:05:53,240
Speaker 1: but favored to win in the state. And obviously Biden

1346
01:05:53,280 --> 01:05:55,040
Speaker 1: won their last time around. So I mean, this is

1347
01:05:55,120 --> 01:05:58,960
Speaker 1: the political realignment. And they also got Colorado. Colorado used

1348
01:05:58,960 --> 01:06:02,480
Speaker 1: to not be either, So there's I would say if

1349
01:06:02,480 --> 01:06:05,200
Speaker 1: I were Democrats stratis, I would not trade Ohio and Florida.

1350
01:06:05,680 --> 01:06:09,280
Speaker 1: Colorado no offense to college. So we have our official

1351
01:06:09,320 --> 01:06:12,160
Speaker 1: flip of the night A Charlie Chris old Sea Florida

1352
01:06:12,200 --> 01:06:15,360
Speaker 1: thirteenth District, Anna Paulina. I think she used to work

1353
01:06:15,400 --> 01:06:18,480
Speaker 1: for Turning Point. I believe I met her once or twice. Anyway,

1354
01:06:18,680 --> 01:06:21,720
Speaker 1: she and Paulina Lena. She has officially flipped Florida thirteen.

1355
01:06:21,920 --> 01:06:24,680
Speaker 1: That is officially one gain for the Republicans in the

1356
01:06:24,720 --> 01:06:26,920
Speaker 1: House of Representatives. As a reminder, everybody, it's only eight

1357
01:06:26,960 --> 01:06:29,960
Speaker 1: oh six, so it is really beginning to get started

1358
01:06:30,160 --> 01:06:31,920
Speaker 1: right now. I have a call for you. Go ahead.

1359
01:06:32,080 --> 01:06:36,520
Speaker 1: Democrats have flipped the Maryland governorship. Oh, Wes Moore will

1360
01:06:36,520 --> 01:06:39,400
Speaker 1: be ghosts technically, but yeah, Maryland's first black governor. Yeah,

1361
01:06:39,400 --> 01:06:42,400
Speaker 1: I mean this was one where again, uh, going back

1362
01:06:42,440 --> 01:06:46,320
Speaker 1: to the question just Trump Helper Herd, Republicans nominated an

1363
01:06:46,360 --> 01:06:50,400
Speaker 1: extreme candidate in Maryland. Maryland is a state that you know,

1364
01:06:50,520 --> 01:06:53,560
Speaker 1: currently has a Republican governor. So you know, it is

1365
01:06:53,600 --> 01:06:55,560
Speaker 1: a blue state, but it's one that has a track

1366
01:06:55,560 --> 01:06:58,480
Speaker 1: record of being willing to vote for Republicans for governor.

1367
01:06:59,360 --> 01:07:01,520
Speaker 1: I don't know if Larry Hogan, the current governor, I

1368
01:07:01,520 --> 01:07:03,480
Speaker 1: don't know if he outright endorsed to Wes Moore, but

1369
01:07:03,520 --> 01:07:05,680
Speaker 1: I do know he said he would not vote for

1370
01:07:05,760 --> 01:07:09,520
Speaker 1: the Republican nominee. So you know, this turns a seat

1371
01:07:09,520 --> 01:07:11,880
Speaker 1: that you know, maybe Republicans could have contested with a

1372
01:07:11,880 --> 01:07:14,360
Speaker 1: different candidate into one that was just a slam dunk

1373
01:07:14,400 --> 01:07:17,120
Speaker 1: for West One. Here's another fun game, which is by

1374
01:07:17,160 --> 01:07:19,720
Speaker 1: how much are DeSantis and Rubio winning by? So Rubio

1375
01:07:19,840 --> 01:07:22,720
Speaker 1: right now is up about twelve points over val Deming's

1376
01:07:22,840 --> 01:07:25,360
Speaker 1: in Florida. The five point thirty eight average had him

1377
01:07:25,400 --> 01:07:28,560
Speaker 1: at twelve points leading. So that's interesting. So to consider

1378
01:07:28,600 --> 01:07:31,280
Speaker 1: this one of the first times. Well okay, so maybe

1379
01:07:31,320 --> 01:07:34,760
Speaker 1: we can consider this in now red states. Maybe they

1380
01:07:34,760 --> 01:07:37,920
Speaker 1: are getting good at calling these although Florida was pretty

1381
01:07:37,960 --> 01:07:40,320
Speaker 1: off in twenty twenty. If we'll all recall by add

1382
01:07:40,360 --> 01:07:43,800
Speaker 1: Biden up by three but Trump letting it by two.

1383
01:07:44,120 --> 01:07:46,720
Speaker 1: So that's this is These are the fun things. Also

1384
01:07:46,960 --> 01:07:49,960
Speaker 1: to look at is the margins, the actual polling average

1385
01:07:50,040 --> 01:07:52,440
Speaker 1: the day of, and it does look like both DeSantis

1386
01:07:52,440 --> 01:07:55,439
Speaker 1: and Rubio. DeSantis actually outperforming a little bit his polls.

1387
01:07:55,440 --> 01:07:56,880
Speaker 1: They had him up by about ten. He looks to

1388
01:07:56,920 --> 01:07:59,960
Speaker 1: be winning by almost fifteen, but Rubio dead on at

1389
01:08:00,000 --> 01:08:02,760
Speaker 1: twelve in Florida. That's a win actually for the polling industry,

1390
01:08:02,840 --> 01:08:04,880
Speaker 1: I think so far, so we should celebrate some of

1391
01:08:04,920 --> 01:08:07,040
Speaker 1: the little wins before we get on the dunks. I

1392
01:08:07,040 --> 01:08:09,439
Speaker 1: do find it interesting though, I mean, just look, let's

1393
01:08:09,440 --> 01:08:11,720
Speaker 1: all let it sink in Florida's a red state. That's crazy.

1394
01:08:11,840 --> 01:08:16,559
Speaker 1: We've also got a flip for governor of Massachusetts, which

1395
01:08:16,600 --> 01:08:19,760
Speaker 1: had been a Republican. Again a blue state where a

1396
01:08:19,800 --> 01:08:22,360
Speaker 1: Republican was governor. Now you have Democrats flip that one

1397
01:08:22,400 --> 01:08:25,639
Speaker 1: as well. Similar dynamic where you had an extremist candidate

1398
01:08:25,720 --> 01:08:27,840
Speaker 1: it was nominated by the Republicans and made this an

1399
01:08:27,880 --> 01:08:31,280
Speaker 1: easy win ultimately for the Democrats. So similar dynamic in

1400
01:08:31,320 --> 01:08:34,439
Speaker 1: Massachusetts as you ultimately had in Maryland. By the way,

1401
01:08:34,439 --> 01:08:37,040
Speaker 1: what did you think of that political strategy, which you

1402
01:08:37,080 --> 01:08:41,559
Speaker 1: can call it that where Democrats would prop up the

1403
01:08:41,560 --> 01:08:44,920
Speaker 1: more extremist Republican candidate, Because as a matter of principle,

1404
01:08:44,960 --> 01:08:46,280
Speaker 1: I think it's a messed up thing to do because

1405
01:08:46,320 --> 01:08:48,160
Speaker 1: you're rolling the dice with these people who you admit

1406
01:08:48,240 --> 01:08:50,920
Speaker 1: are like a threat to democracy and flat out authoritarian.

1407
01:08:51,240 --> 01:08:53,800
Speaker 1: But like in terms of the actual strategy of it,

1408
01:08:54,280 --> 01:08:56,680
Speaker 1: I mean, if it's effective, it's like I kind of

1409
01:08:56,680 --> 01:08:58,479
Speaker 1: see where they're coming. So it's effective with a very

1410
01:08:58,560 --> 01:09:01,479
Speaker 1: very high consequence, right, Buldock WEDNESDA Night, that's going to

1411
01:09:01,520 --> 01:09:03,719
Speaker 1: be a big, big screw up. Yeah, it's the master

1412
01:09:04,120 --> 01:09:06,519
Speaker 1: one of those propped up Austrana was. So that's why

1413
01:09:06,520 --> 01:09:08,080
Speaker 1: it's a mixed bag. It's one of those things where

1414
01:09:08,120 --> 01:09:10,439
Speaker 1: if it works, yeah, it's smart strategy. If it doesn't

1415
01:09:10,439 --> 01:09:13,000
Speaker 1: work and you end up with Baldock to the balduck

1416
01:09:13,040 --> 01:09:15,360
Speaker 1: literally in the United States Senate for six straight years

1417
01:09:15,360 --> 01:09:17,000
Speaker 1: as well, you have a serious problem. Well, and this

1418
01:09:17,040 --> 01:09:19,640
Speaker 1: is where it's tough too, because it seems that the

1419
01:09:19,880 --> 01:09:22,240
Speaker 1: and this is and this is why mestern has been

1420
01:09:22,280 --> 01:09:27,400
Speaker 1: a super hurt by the election denial issues. Governor from

1421
01:09:27,439 --> 01:09:30,320
Speaker 1: an election denial perspective matters way more than a senator

1422
01:09:30,560 --> 01:09:34,040
Speaker 1: because they point the secretary. Yeah, but that's the that's

1423
01:09:34,080 --> 01:09:35,680
Speaker 1: the kind of the key differentiator there. But look, I

1424
01:09:35,720 --> 01:09:39,040
Speaker 1: think the problem with the thing that's curious the two

1425
01:09:39,040 --> 01:09:40,760
Speaker 1: of you think about this, because this is this gets

1426
01:09:40,800 --> 01:09:43,160
Speaker 1: the difficulty of like the democratic partic because Kyle, you

1427
01:09:43,160 --> 01:09:46,960
Speaker 1: were like democrats did its like democratic like political operatives

1428
01:09:46,960 --> 01:09:49,920
Speaker 1: did it? So like it's this weird coalitional politics where

1429
01:09:50,000 --> 01:09:52,200
Speaker 1: you have like so, I don't think we have a

1430
01:09:52,000 --> 01:09:54,680
Speaker 1: big answer to this thing. But it just seems like

1431
01:09:54,720 --> 01:09:57,000
Speaker 1: a bad idea because if you believe the election issue

1432
01:09:57,120 --> 01:10:01,839
Speaker 1: is a serious as you believe obvious, if if American

1433
01:10:01,840 --> 01:10:04,160
Speaker 1: democracy is at stake, we could also believe that people

1434
01:10:04,200 --> 01:10:07,120
Speaker 1: would elect. Therefore I would not like fuck around and

1435
01:10:07,160 --> 01:10:16,240
Speaker 1: find out that way. Biden's final speech, right after he'd

1436
01:10:16,280 --> 01:10:18,960
Speaker 1: already done the one with the red lighting that freaked

1437
01:10:19,000 --> 01:10:21,080
Speaker 1: down about whatever and said they were what did you

1438
01:10:21,120 --> 01:10:24,360
Speaker 1: say semi fascists, Yeah, semi fascist and then he did

1439
01:10:24,400 --> 01:10:27,080
Speaker 1: the final election pitch was like democracy is on the

1440
01:10:27,080 --> 01:10:30,120
Speaker 1: ballot they did the January sixth years. I mean, if

1441
01:10:30,160 --> 01:10:34,280
Speaker 1: they believe their own rhetoric that the real dividing line

1442
01:10:34,680 --> 01:10:37,960
Speaker 1: is not even D or R left or right, it's

1443
01:10:38,000 --> 01:10:41,080
Speaker 1: whether or not you believe in the basic tenets of democracy.

1444
01:10:41,160 --> 01:10:43,599
Speaker 1: Like if you actually believe that, how do you then

1445
01:10:43,720 --> 01:10:46,840
Speaker 1: go and like bolster a candidate like Don Bulldock or

1446
01:10:47,280 --> 01:10:49,679
Speaker 1: Doug Mastriano in Pennsylvania. I mean that's why I said,

1447
01:10:49,720 --> 01:10:53,040
Speaker 1: as a matter of principle, you shouldn't do it because

1448
01:10:53,080 --> 01:10:56,280
Speaker 1: like it shows like like you're playing with fire exactly.

1449
01:10:56,720 --> 01:10:59,280
Speaker 1: But also in terms of strategy, you can't deny that

1450
01:10:59,320 --> 01:11:01,840
Speaker 1: they probably would have had way more wins if it

1451
01:11:01,880 --> 01:11:03,559
Speaker 1: was the more moderate Republicans. You know, you made that

1452
01:11:03,560 --> 01:11:05,879
Speaker 1: point before. If it was Glenn Yunkin everywhere in the country,

1453
01:11:06,120 --> 01:11:10,439
Speaker 1: Democrats be screwed. Definitely, wh absolutely absolutely. Second GOP flip

1454
01:11:10,439 --> 01:11:13,479
Speaker 1: of the night is in Florida seven, So Corey Mills

1455
01:11:13,520 --> 01:11:15,800
Speaker 1: winning there. So that's two net two right now in

1456
01:11:15,880 --> 01:11:18,559
Speaker 1: terms of seats, I expect many more will be coming in.

1457
01:11:18,680 --> 01:11:21,960
Speaker 1: It's really interesting in order to consider the Florida results. Also,

1458
01:11:22,000 --> 01:11:26,360
Speaker 1: I'm curious, so get this. Val Demings raised seventy two

1459
01:11:26,720 --> 01:11:31,320
Speaker 1: million dollars in that race, Marco seventy two. I think

1460
01:11:31,320 --> 01:11:33,680
Speaker 1: we should let the audience let that sink in. I

1461
01:11:33,720 --> 01:11:36,600
Speaker 1: remember when Beto raised twenty million, and I was like,

1462
01:11:36,640 --> 01:11:39,559
Speaker 1: that's crazy. I can't even believe that he raised twenty

1463
01:11:39,600 --> 01:11:42,599
Speaker 1: million dollars like in a week, and he ended up

1464
01:11:42,600 --> 01:11:45,000
Speaker 1: against Ted Cruz with his competitive almost and that was

1465
01:11:45,040 --> 01:11:48,799
Speaker 1: competitive within two points. I mean, that was the national story.

1466
01:11:48,840 --> 01:11:50,720
Speaker 1: We talked about, Crystal. You and I talked about that

1467
01:11:50,960 --> 01:11:54,040
Speaker 1: ad nausea. Beto and Ted. We could not even believe

1468
01:11:54,080 --> 01:11:55,479
Speaker 1: the amount of money that he had in the tank.

1469
01:11:55,800 --> 01:11:59,280
Speaker 1: And val Demings now outpacing even some of those landmark

1470
01:11:59,320 --> 01:12:03,840
Speaker 1: campaigns of twenty eighteen in terms of dollar fundraising, very

1471
01:12:03,880 --> 01:12:06,479
Speaker 1: well fundraised all of these candidates, and she loses the

1472
01:12:06,560 --> 01:12:09,479
Speaker 1: race at eight ZHO one. Well, I'm stunning. There is

1473
01:12:09,520 --> 01:12:12,040
Speaker 1: a big story in this election about the amount of money.

1474
01:12:12,200 --> 01:12:17,200
Speaker 1: It will be overwhelmingly record breaking sums spent on this

1475
01:12:17,439 --> 01:12:20,320
Speaker 1: midterm election. One thing that you know, sort of the

1476
01:12:20,360 --> 01:12:24,160
Speaker 1: like Democratic hopium on Twitter that I saw was that

1477
01:12:24,280 --> 01:12:28,679
Speaker 1: Democratic candidates, especially at the grassroots level, they were wildly

1478
01:12:28,720 --> 01:12:33,880
Speaker 1: out fundraising their Republican counterpoints, and so they were saying, look,

1479
01:12:33,920 --> 01:12:36,360
Speaker 1: this is counterparts. So they're saying that this is an

1480
01:12:36,360 --> 01:12:39,720
Speaker 1: indication the democratic base is more enthusiastic, and so this

1481
01:12:39,760 --> 01:12:42,960
Speaker 1: is one indicator of that ultimately. But you know, the

1482
01:12:43,200 --> 01:12:48,280
Speaker 1: amount of money that billionaires flooded into these races is

1483
01:12:48,560 --> 01:12:52,479
Speaker 1: really disturbing and really disgusting if again, you actually really

1484
01:12:52,520 --> 01:12:56,400
Speaker 1: do care about like democracy and people having a voice

1485
01:12:56,760 --> 01:12:59,040
Speaker 1: and not just being controlled by a bunch of billionaires.

1486
01:12:59,240 --> 01:13:01,360
Speaker 1: So I actually have this pacifics on that. Americans for

1487
01:13:01,400 --> 01:13:04,000
Speaker 1: Tax Fairness did a report and they released it last week.

1488
01:13:04,479 --> 01:13:08,880
Speaker 1: New analysis finds that four hundred and sixty five billionaires

1489
01:13:08,880 --> 01:13:11,760
Speaker 1: had pumped eight hundred and eighty one million dollars into

1490
01:13:11,800 --> 01:13:14,720
Speaker 1: the twenty twenty two federal metrum elections by October. That's

1491
01:13:14,840 --> 01:13:19,080
Speaker 1: twenty seven times more than they contributed before Citizens United

1492
01:13:19,560 --> 01:13:23,120
Speaker 1: was decided. So back in twenty ten, those billionaires only

1493
01:13:23,120 --> 01:13:25,760
Speaker 1: spent thirty two million on the election. Again, now it's

1494
01:13:25,840 --> 01:13:28,880
Speaker 1: eight hundred and eighty one million. Wow, that's fascinating, I

1495
01:13:28,920 --> 01:13:30,960
Speaker 1: mean it is. It's also funny too, because you know

1496
01:13:31,000 --> 01:13:34,200
Speaker 1: that those set are much more influenced by the hopium

1497
01:13:34,200 --> 01:13:36,280
Speaker 1: of these many of these polls, like the val deemings

1498
01:13:36,320 --> 01:13:38,240
Speaker 1: in them, and it's just to watch it all just

1499
01:13:38,280 --> 01:13:41,080
Speaker 1: get flushed down the drain. Is just really stunning. Some

1500
01:13:41,120 --> 01:13:44,479
Speaker 1: interesting numbers here from Miami Day, just to reiterate twenty eighteen,

1501
01:13:44,600 --> 01:13:47,200
Speaker 1: DeSantis won thirty nine percent twenty twenty. This was a

1502
01:13:47,200 --> 01:13:49,519
Speaker 1: big story that we covered Trump at forty three percent

1503
01:13:49,600 --> 01:13:53,320
Speaker 1: twenty twenty, basically near almost one hundred percent reporting desantus

1504
01:13:53,320 --> 01:13:55,560
Speaker 1: at fifty three. So a ten point swing in the

1505
01:13:55,640 --> 01:13:59,200
Speaker 1: DeSantis direction away from Trump from twenty twenty to twenty

1506
01:13:59,240 --> 01:14:02,280
Speaker 1: twenty two and a near like fifteen percent gain to

1507
01:14:02,360 --> 01:14:05,519
Speaker 1: an outright majority in Miami Dade County for Disantis there

1508
01:14:05,800 --> 01:14:09,080
Speaker 1: in the Latin just four years, which again really is stunning.

1509
01:14:09,120 --> 01:14:11,800
Speaker 1: And there's quite a bit I'm seeing pumped out by

1510
01:14:12,000 --> 01:14:15,519
Speaker 1: Republican elites talking about the DeSantis victory. The margin of

1511
01:14:15,560 --> 01:14:18,040
Speaker 1: victory outlines how popular his platform is when compared to

1512
01:14:18,120 --> 01:14:20,559
Speaker 1: the Democrats. The Club for Growth, which is a major

1513
01:14:20,640 --> 01:14:23,519
Speaker 1: organization obviously battling right now with Trump, they went to

1514
01:14:23,560 --> 01:14:26,240
Speaker 1: bat with Trump over Blake Masters, they went to sorry

1515
01:14:26,479 --> 01:14:29,439
Speaker 1: over JD. Vance. There was a big fight there if

1516
01:14:29,479 --> 01:14:32,519
Speaker 1: we'll all recall whenever they endorsed Josh Mandel. Wow, that's

1517
01:14:32,560 --> 01:14:34,840
Speaker 1: the name I haven't thought of in a long time.

1518
01:14:34,880 --> 01:14:37,160
Speaker 1: Thank god we don't have to talk about that one tonight.

1519
01:14:37,400 --> 01:14:40,160
Speaker 1: But anyway, it highlights that there is a major war

1520
01:14:40,560 --> 01:14:44,120
Speaker 1: right now for the quote unquote narrative amongst Republican elites,

1521
01:14:44,160 --> 01:14:48,400
Speaker 1: the idea of Desanta's twenty twenty four. Our respective opinions regardless,

1522
01:14:48,439 --> 01:14:51,719
Speaker 1: like a lot of gop elites right now are pushing

1523
01:14:51,880 --> 01:14:54,200
Speaker 1: very very hard, from what I can see, the idea

1524
01:14:54,200 --> 01:14:57,320
Speaker 1: of Haymlessen running for president. My view of this is

1525
01:14:57,320 --> 01:14:59,200
Speaker 1: what I said on Breaking Points the other day, which

1526
01:14:59,240 --> 01:15:02,320
Speaker 1: is like this is like the more clever version of

1527
01:15:02,400 --> 01:15:06,400
Speaker 1: like the never Trump movement. It's like it is they think, okay, well,

1528
01:15:06,439 --> 01:15:09,680
Speaker 1: we tried going straight up against him. Didn't work with

1529
01:15:09,760 --> 01:15:12,559
Speaker 1: like people who would actually repudiate him and be critical

1530
01:15:12,600 --> 01:15:14,800
Speaker 1: of him and like you know, call him names or

1531
01:15:14,840 --> 01:15:17,960
Speaker 1: what I like. That clearly failed. Liz Cheney obviously not

1532
01:15:18,000 --> 01:15:20,200
Speaker 1: going to work out this time. Let's go with someone

1533
01:15:20,240 --> 01:15:22,439
Speaker 1: who's like trying to mimic him and trying to be

1534
01:15:22,800 --> 01:15:24,960
Speaker 1: just like him, except for you know, maybe a little

1535
01:15:25,000 --> 01:15:28,719
Speaker 1: bit less crazy and not really directly criticize him. Maybe

1536
01:15:28,760 --> 01:15:31,920
Speaker 1: that will be the thing that will work, but ultimately,

1537
01:15:32,080 --> 01:15:36,080
Speaker 1: you still have a working class megabase that is deeply

1538
01:15:36,080 --> 01:15:38,120
Speaker 1: committed to Donald Trump. And they may be fine with

1539
01:15:38,240 --> 01:15:41,240
Speaker 1: Ron DeSantis, they may be okay with him, but this

1540
01:15:41,400 --> 01:15:45,400
Speaker 1: is disproportionally. It's not one hundred percent, but it's disproportionally

1541
01:15:45,560 --> 01:15:49,960
Speaker 1: a sort of like elite, highly educated, highly online phenomenon

1542
01:15:50,080 --> 01:15:53,640
Speaker 1: trying to make this guy a thing go ahead. And

1543
01:15:53,680 --> 01:15:56,400
Speaker 1: this is why I'm fascinated how the two parties and

1544
01:15:56,400 --> 01:16:00,280
Speaker 1: their incendiisms are different. So the Democratic Party, this is

1545
01:16:00,280 --> 01:16:03,800
Speaker 1: why Hillary Clinton ultimately beats Bernie this is why Joe

1546
01:16:03,800 --> 01:16:07,280
Speaker 1: Biden becaus nominee. Like your average normally Democratic voter is like,

1547
01:16:07,280 --> 01:16:11,519
Speaker 1: what's electability? Am I super excited by Joe Biden? No?

1548
01:16:11,920 --> 01:16:15,120
Speaker 1: Is Hillary pass just so by date? Probably, but like

1549
01:16:15,439 --> 01:16:20,200
Speaker 1: she's gonna win. The Republican base is not voting for electability, right,

1550
01:16:20,320 --> 01:16:23,720
Speaker 1: and they've ever since twenty twelve. Romney was the last

1551
01:16:23,720 --> 01:16:27,040
Speaker 1: time the Republican Party picked their choice off of electability.

1552
01:16:27,280 --> 01:16:29,240
Speaker 1: And that's just the critical difference here. And it seems

1553
01:16:29,479 --> 01:16:31,680
Speaker 1: like the weird situation that DeSantis stands are in is

1554
01:16:31,680 --> 01:16:33,800
Speaker 1: they're basically trying to make an argument that you would

1555
01:16:33,800 --> 01:16:37,000
Speaker 1: make to the Democratic Party. Right. That is funny because true,

1556
01:16:38,360 --> 01:16:41,479
Speaker 1: right now, the people who are still big time supporters

1557
01:16:41,479 --> 01:16:46,120
Speaker 1: of Donald Trump after everything we've seen, it is super cultish,

1558
01:16:46,479 --> 01:16:49,400
Speaker 1: way more cultish than any dissentist stands on Twitter. In

1559
01:16:49,400 --> 01:16:51,000
Speaker 1: my opinion, I don't know in a sense, I don't

1560
01:16:51,040 --> 01:16:52,840
Speaker 1: agree with the analysis of like, oh, we still got

1561
01:16:52,840 --> 01:16:56,160
Speaker 1: this working class base. He's got like quean On people

1562
01:16:56,200 --> 01:16:58,200
Speaker 1: at this point, Like, yeah, I get thirty percent of

1563
01:16:58,200 --> 01:17:01,560
Speaker 1: the country, I admittedly, but like that's not merely as

1564
01:17:01,560 --> 01:17:05,400
Speaker 1: it wasn't person the base things that the election was stolen.

1565
01:17:06,000 --> 01:17:10,639
Speaker 1: It's an overwhelming majority. I understand that. But again the idea,

1566
01:17:10,680 --> 01:17:12,920
Speaker 1: I don't buy this notion anymore, like, oh, he's got

1567
01:17:12,920 --> 01:17:15,120
Speaker 1: this working class base, like all the two times Obama

1568
01:17:15,160 --> 01:17:17,160
Speaker 1: voter who flipped a Trump because his job was outsore.

1569
01:17:17,240 --> 01:17:20,120
Speaker 1: Those people are gone. Now it's people who are trying

1570
01:17:20,120 --> 01:17:22,400
Speaker 1: to figure out what Qwanon is saying and they're going

1571
01:17:22,400 --> 01:17:29,320
Speaker 1: to try exact tion more votes. Okay, but there's a

1572
01:17:29,360 --> 01:17:31,200
Speaker 1: lot of things that have happened since then, right, I mean,

1573
01:17:31,240 --> 01:17:34,280
Speaker 1: like January sixth happened, and he's gone full authoritarian and

1574
01:17:34,320 --> 01:17:36,360
Speaker 1: every other day he's on truth social saying put me

1575
01:17:36,400 --> 01:17:41,400
Speaker 1: back in or let's redo the election, good struggle, let's

1576
01:17:41,400 --> 01:17:43,639
Speaker 1: talk about let's talk about this though. Yeah, I don't

1577
01:17:43,640 --> 01:17:46,679
Speaker 1: think there's an equivalence between these two things. But narrative,

1578
01:17:46,680 --> 01:17:48,439
Speaker 1: you've kind of seen that in the paper recently has

1579
01:17:48,439 --> 01:17:50,400
Speaker 1: been If you talk to a lot of like Trump

1580
01:17:50,479 --> 01:17:53,600
Speaker 1: voters about the extremism January sixth argument, they'll say in

1581
01:17:53,640 --> 01:17:55,360
Speaker 1: a kind of what about his way, Well, what about

1582
01:17:55,360 --> 01:17:58,559
Speaker 1: like summer twenty twenty and the riots, and actually both

1583
01:17:58,600 --> 01:18:00,920
Speaker 1: the parties are extremists and bad, Like I just think

1584
01:18:00,960 --> 01:18:03,000
Speaker 1: we're in this weird area where it just kind of

1585
01:18:03,120 --> 01:18:04,920
Speaker 1: washed out. I agree with you, though they say like,

1586
01:18:04,920 --> 01:18:06,960
Speaker 1: oh it was Antifa who did it? For like, oh

1587
01:18:07,000 --> 01:18:08,880
Speaker 1: Antifa did it? Or I actually know was we did it?

1588
01:18:08,880 --> 01:18:10,680
Speaker 1: But it was based They go back and forth. But

1589
01:18:10,680 --> 01:18:12,439
Speaker 1: you're kind of making my point. It's like this weird

1590
01:18:13,120 --> 01:18:16,160
Speaker 1: contradictory cult that he has around him. I don't view them.

1591
01:18:16,200 --> 01:18:19,080
Speaker 1: I don't think it's like representative. Certainly not fifty one

1592
01:18:19,120 --> 01:18:21,080
Speaker 1: percent of the country nowhere near that. So from what

1593
01:18:21,160 --> 01:18:25,640
Speaker 1: I well, I'll remind director in college, but I have

1594
01:18:25,760 --> 01:18:28,320
Speaker 1: the most but the other interesting one. Actually we haven't

1595
01:18:28,320 --> 01:18:30,519
Speaker 1: talked about this yet, which I found fascinating. Ahead of

1596
01:18:30,560 --> 01:18:34,719
Speaker 1: congressional preference, guys number fifteen, please, this is the gender gap.

1597
01:18:35,000 --> 01:18:37,479
Speaker 1: This is something which actually bears a lot of discussion,

1598
01:18:37,600 --> 01:18:40,160
Speaker 1: and I believe that it will be born out tonight,

1599
01:18:40,280 --> 01:18:43,320
Speaker 1: especially in those Miami Dad numbers and elsewhere. Let's just

1600
01:18:43,400 --> 01:18:46,799
Speaker 1: highlight here congressional preference for those who might just be listening,

1601
01:18:47,120 --> 01:18:51,320
Speaker 1: men with college educated men who are college educated or more.

1602
01:18:51,160 --> 01:18:54,080
Speaker 1: We had a D plus sixteen preference in twenty eighteen.

1603
01:18:54,400 --> 01:18:58,080
Speaker 1: Today is R plus ten with a twenty six point

1604
01:18:58,160 --> 01:19:02,000
Speaker 1: shift over four years. That's insane. But then look at

1605
01:19:02,000 --> 01:19:04,519
Speaker 1: it with the no degree. So basically you continue to

1606
01:19:04,560 --> 01:19:07,320
Speaker 1: have a Republican preference R plus eight in twenty and

1607
01:19:07,479 --> 01:19:10,840
Speaker 1: eighteen R plus twenty now at twelve point shift. Here's

1608
01:19:10,840 --> 01:19:13,200
Speaker 1: the crazy one though, with college educated women and Crystal.

1609
01:19:13,240 --> 01:19:16,200
Speaker 1: This gets to the suburban women discussion that we had previously.

1610
01:19:16,439 --> 01:19:18,439
Speaker 1: Dems bet the House that they could try and keep

1611
01:19:18,600 --> 01:19:21,519
Speaker 1: college educated women. They have it there at D plus

1612
01:19:21,560 --> 01:19:24,479
Speaker 1: thirty four in twenty eighteen, now D plus thirty eight

1613
01:19:24,520 --> 01:19:27,080
Speaker 1: only a four point shift. And then finally women with

1614
01:19:27,160 --> 01:19:29,880
Speaker 1: no college degree had a D plus three preference in

1615
01:19:29,920 --> 01:19:34,080
Speaker 1: twenty eighteen, a D plus one preference effectively tied today

1616
01:19:34,160 --> 01:19:36,280
Speaker 1: in twenty twenty two with a two point shift in

1617
01:19:36,320 --> 01:19:39,720
Speaker 1: the Republican direction. So you effectively see massive swings or

1618
01:19:39,760 --> 01:19:42,680
Speaker 1: a tiny swing with women with no college degree, and

1619
01:19:42,720 --> 01:19:45,280
Speaker 1: the only ground that is made up there Crystal was

1620
01:19:45,320 --> 01:19:47,920
Speaker 1: women with a college degree and only by four points,

1621
01:19:48,000 --> 01:19:50,639
Speaker 1: So really fascinating from a gender persse. I do think

1622
01:19:50,800 --> 01:19:53,200
Speaker 1: that one of the stories we might be talking about

1623
01:19:53,240 --> 01:19:55,800
Speaker 1: tomorrow is a huge gender devive. I think we may

1624
01:19:55,840 --> 01:19:59,800
Speaker 1: see a massive because you know, ultimately, you know, the

1625
01:20:00,000 --> 01:20:03,560
Speaker 1: the country is sort of living in these separate media ecosystems,

1626
01:20:03,600 --> 01:20:08,400
Speaker 1: separate bubbles. They're experiencing this election in like totally different ways.

1627
01:20:08,479 --> 01:20:11,200
Speaker 1: The issues that they're concerned about, that they're voting on

1628
01:20:11,400 --> 01:20:14,320
Speaker 1: are completely separate. The way they're thinking about these issues.

1629
01:20:14,320 --> 01:20:16,880
Speaker 1: I mean, it really is almost like the countries on

1630
01:20:16,960 --> 01:20:20,880
Speaker 1: two parallel tracks. And it does seem like, you know,

1631
01:20:20,920 --> 01:20:25,479
Speaker 1: the Row versus Wade being overturned, the DABS decision that

1632
01:20:25,600 --> 01:20:28,760
Speaker 1: also helped to set women in general and men in

1633
01:20:28,800 --> 01:20:30,920
Speaker 1: general on sort of a different track in terms of

1634
01:20:30,920 --> 01:20:33,439
Speaker 1: how they were viewing this election. Listen. I mean, it

1635
01:20:33,479 --> 01:20:35,640
Speaker 1: makes a lot of sense. If you're a woman, this

1636
01:20:35,720 --> 01:20:38,080
Speaker 1: feels a lot more direct, a lot more personal. You

1637
01:20:38,160 --> 01:20:40,960
Speaker 1: have like more just like directly at stake in terms

1638
01:20:41,000 --> 01:20:44,160
Speaker 1: of the decision. Of course, there's long been a widening

1639
01:20:44,200 --> 01:20:47,439
Speaker 1: jender divide, with Democrats doing better with women in general

1640
01:20:47,479 --> 01:20:50,360
Speaker 1: and Republicans doing better with men in general. But I

1641
01:20:50,439 --> 01:20:53,680
Speaker 1: do think it will be probably particularly stark in this election. Well,

1642
01:20:53,680 --> 01:20:57,040
Speaker 1: one quick thing and this is this is like a

1643
01:20:57,120 --> 01:21:00,599
Speaker 1: policy endorsement, but it was a course correction the Republicans

1644
01:21:00,640 --> 01:21:05,120
Speaker 1: pulled off, like the abortion rhetoric Lake Masters, June twenty

1645
01:21:05,160 --> 01:21:08,919
Speaker 1: twenty two. Once it's clear how devastating the abortion decision

1646
01:21:09,000 --> 01:21:12,720
Speaker 1: was for Republicans in those Kansas referendums, deletes the you know,

1647
01:21:13,040 --> 01:21:18,320
Speaker 1: National Abortion Band from webs right Republicans, and it's kind

1648
01:21:18,320 --> 01:21:20,960
Speaker 1: of interesting that the pro life movement was this forgetting.

1649
01:21:21,080 --> 01:21:22,840
Speaker 1: It shows how calculating this was, Like the pro life

1650
01:21:22,880 --> 01:21:27,800
Speaker 1: movement forgave Republicans really dialing back where they went, trying

1651
01:21:27,800 --> 01:21:29,680
Speaker 1: to turn the debate into like democrats of the real

1652
01:21:29,680 --> 01:21:31,840
Speaker 1: extremists un abortion. So that was a that was a

1653
01:21:32,000 --> 01:21:34,120
Speaker 1: that could have gone a different direction. I mean, it's

1654
01:21:34,160 --> 01:21:36,559
Speaker 1: kind of test case here. It's honestly a sign of

1655
01:21:36,600 --> 01:21:39,960
Speaker 1: sort of political maturity in the pro life movement, because

1656
01:21:40,120 --> 01:21:46,000
Speaker 1: ultimately they, I mean, they have been building this machine

1657
01:21:46,280 --> 01:21:49,559
Speaker 1: for decades. They had their eyes on the prize. They

1658
01:21:49,640 --> 01:21:51,800
Speaker 1: knew this was going to be one or loss at

1659
01:21:51,800 --> 01:21:56,400
Speaker 1: the Supreme Court. They created an entire infrastructure, They made

1660
01:21:56,600 --> 01:22:00,600
Speaker 1: the alliances of convenience with the billionaire clubs and the

1661
01:22:00,720 --> 01:22:04,840
Speaker 1: like radical libertarian economic people in order to make this

1662
01:22:04,880 --> 01:22:07,800
Speaker 1: thing happen. They looked at Donald Trump and they're like,

1663
01:22:07,840 --> 01:22:11,160
Speaker 1: this man stands for used to give too like pro

1664
01:22:11,200 --> 01:22:14,439
Speaker 1: life causes, used to literally give to planned parenthood. His

1665
01:22:14,520 --> 01:22:17,400
Speaker 1: personal life is a total catastrophe and a disaster. No

1666
01:22:17,439 --> 01:22:19,080
Speaker 1: one would be shocked if that man is paid for

1667
01:22:19,280 --> 01:22:22,639
Speaker 1: one or multiple abortions himself. But they said, he gave

1668
01:22:22,720 --> 01:22:25,120
Speaker 1: us the list, he's gonna put these nominees on the court,

1669
01:22:25,360 --> 01:22:27,080
Speaker 1: and so am I surprised that they look at Blake

1670
01:22:27,120 --> 01:22:29,960
Speaker 1: Masters like scrubbing his website from his previous abortion language,

1671
01:22:29,960 --> 01:22:31,959
Speaker 1: and they're like, Eh, what are you gonna do? Ultimately,

1672
01:22:31,960 --> 01:22:33,280
Speaker 1: he's going to vote the way we want him to.

1673
01:22:33,280 --> 01:22:35,280
Speaker 1: And Mark Kelly's not. No, I'm not shocked by that.

1674
01:22:35,280 --> 01:22:38,080
Speaker 1: Pretty interesting. I still I think if they get the

1675
01:22:38,160 --> 01:22:40,400
Speaker 1: numbers though, they're going to go for a national abortion bit.

1676
01:22:41,280 --> 01:22:43,519
Speaker 1: This is the testiny. This is actually you know, people

1677
01:22:43,560 --> 01:22:46,160
Speaker 1: got pistel. Lindsay Graham introduced his band. That's true. Yeah,

1678
01:22:46,160 --> 01:22:48,519
Speaker 1: they know. So we actually you run in some people

1679
01:22:48,520 --> 01:22:51,360
Speaker 1: with some people who often update us on what are

1680
01:22:51,360 --> 01:22:53,519
Speaker 1: the major pro life folks paying. They were mad at

1681
01:22:53,560 --> 01:22:56,679
Speaker 1: Lindsay because Lindsay was only capping it at fifteen Reichs.

1682
01:22:57,160 --> 01:22:58,720
Speaker 1: They were like, no, no, no, They're like, that's not

1683
01:22:58,880 --> 01:23:01,480
Speaker 1: where we're going for. I mean, look if they do,

1684
01:23:01,600 --> 01:23:03,800
Speaker 1: if they do that, well, I mean I can just

1685
01:23:03,840 --> 01:23:06,760
Speaker 1: say good luck, Chrystal. Want to check in with you

1686
01:23:06,560 --> 01:23:09,840
Speaker 1: your district Stamburger, do we got fifty of the votes

1687
01:23:09,840 --> 01:23:13,720
Speaker 1: in Okay? We have a Silly Vega at fifty five

1688
01:23:14,160 --> 01:23:16,519
Speaker 1: and span Burger at forty five percent. With one hundred

1689
01:23:16,560 --> 01:23:18,960
Speaker 1: and twenty thousand votes which have been cast so far,

1690
01:23:19,040 --> 01:23:21,479
Speaker 1: we've got what all right, So let me a margin.

1691
01:23:21,520 --> 01:23:23,680
Speaker 1: I got to see which counties are in? Are the

1692
01:23:23,720 --> 01:23:26,960
Speaker 1: ones because so this district, the more you get to

1693
01:23:27,000 --> 01:23:30,840
Speaker 1: the north, the more democratic it ultimately is. So it

1694
01:23:30,880 --> 01:23:34,960
Speaker 1: looks like you've got Orange County is partially in. That's

1695
01:23:35,000 --> 01:23:37,360
Speaker 1: a very Republican area. You've got Culpepper County, which is

1696
01:23:37,439 --> 01:23:41,760
Speaker 1: kind of mixed. You've got Prince William County partially in

1697
01:23:41,880 --> 01:23:44,240
Speaker 1: that's a good area for Spanburger. That's about twenty eight

1698
01:23:44,240 --> 01:23:46,760
Speaker 1: percent in. It's still too early to say because you

1699
01:23:46,840 --> 01:23:49,880
Speaker 1: have some key areas down. And for example, my vote

1700
01:23:49,920 --> 01:23:52,120
Speaker 1: in King George County has yet to be counted. Yet

1701
01:23:52,360 --> 01:23:55,360
Speaker 1: we all know it's not over. It's one I have

1702
01:23:55,479 --> 01:23:58,840
Speaker 1: to say at the ballot box, the CIA ghoul versus

1703
01:23:58,920 --> 01:24:01,120
Speaker 1: the cop in my district, way go ahead. Can I

1704
01:24:01,120 --> 01:24:03,640
Speaker 1: give you guys some early voting numbers in Crystal you

1705
01:24:03,680 --> 01:24:05,880
Speaker 1: and I were we talked about this earlier today. What's

1706
01:24:05,880 --> 01:24:08,839
Speaker 1: the name of the guy, the Democratic polster Stan Greenberg?

1707
01:24:08,880 --> 01:24:12,559
Speaker 1: Vonear that guy Bonyer? Yeah? So with the target smart, Yes,

1708
01:24:12,720 --> 01:24:15,360
Speaker 1: with target smart, so he said, in early voting, the

1709
01:24:15,400 --> 01:24:20,200
Speaker 1: Democratic advantage is eleven percent, and in twenty twenty, to

1710
01:24:20,200 --> 01:24:23,599
Speaker 1: put it in perspective, it was seven percent. In twenty

1711
01:24:23,640 --> 01:24:27,760
Speaker 1: eighteen it was one percent. So before any of the

1712
01:24:27,840 --> 01:24:31,040
Speaker 1: votes that were cast today, Democrats had already built up

1713
01:24:31,080 --> 01:24:34,280
Speaker 1: a four point four million vote lead. And that actually

1714
01:24:34,360 --> 01:24:35,880
Speaker 1: leads into another question I wanted to ask you guys,

1715
01:24:35,880 --> 01:24:38,519
Speaker 1: you were talking about the gender gap here, do you

1716
01:24:38,560 --> 01:24:41,160
Speaker 1: think that there's going to be a giant like age

1717
01:24:41,200 --> 01:24:43,200
Speaker 1: gap as well, Like, are you going to are we

1718
01:24:43,200 --> 01:24:47,720
Speaker 1: going to see young voters turn out for Democrats for

1719
01:24:47,920 --> 01:24:50,320
Speaker 1: one of the reasons being that, you know, Biden did

1720
01:24:50,400 --> 01:24:53,120
Speaker 1: the student loan debt reduction which ninety percent of the

1721
01:24:53,120 --> 01:24:55,840
Speaker 1: people impacted make seventy five thousand dollars year or less.

1722
01:24:55,960 --> 01:24:58,439
Speaker 1: Are we going to see basically like politically Biden the

1723
01:24:58,479 --> 01:25:01,120
Speaker 1: Democrats getting rewarded for what they did. There. So the

1724
01:25:01,240 --> 01:25:03,840
Speaker 1: only indication that I've seen yet and because remember that

1725
01:25:03,920 --> 01:25:07,120
Speaker 1: detailed breakdown doesn't come until sometimes even weeks later, was

1726
01:25:07,200 --> 01:25:10,040
Speaker 1: John Rawlson was looking at this in terms of Clark

1727
01:25:10,040 --> 01:25:13,559
Speaker 1: County and Nevada. He said, actually, the younger voters between

1728
01:25:13,600 --> 01:25:15,479
Speaker 1: eighteen and twenty five were not showing up at all,

1729
01:25:15,520 --> 01:25:18,400
Speaker 1: like almost wow. Only at one point you land like

1730
01:25:18,400 --> 01:25:21,200
Speaker 1: a thousand votes even come in in that age group,

1731
01:25:21,240 --> 01:25:23,439
Speaker 1: which is he said, you know, this just shows you

1732
01:25:23,439 --> 01:25:26,320
Speaker 1: young people not showing up to vote. Again, that was Nevada,

1733
01:25:26,520 --> 01:25:28,679
Speaker 1: that was early vote. But that is the only actual

1734
01:25:28,680 --> 01:25:32,120
Speaker 1: demographic data that we have. Here's an interesting one Washington

1735
01:25:32,120 --> 01:25:34,800
Speaker 1: Post exit polls from a couple of different states that

1736
01:25:34,840 --> 01:25:38,839
Speaker 1: they put together New Hampshire, Georgia, and North Carolina, little

1737
01:25:38,880 --> 01:25:43,040
Speaker 1: perceived differences in the extremity of Republican and Democratic candidates,

1738
01:25:43,040 --> 01:25:45,719
Speaker 1: which gets to all of our questions around candidate quality.

1739
01:25:45,960 --> 01:25:49,280
Speaker 1: In Georgia, they actually verify more. We're saying that Warnock

1740
01:25:49,439 --> 01:25:54,559
Speaker 1: is extreme than actually Herschel Walker, given Walker's past position

1741
01:25:54,680 --> 01:25:58,000
Speaker 1: on abortion and obviously his own personal dalliances all being

1742
01:25:58,040 --> 01:26:00,400
Speaker 1: in the news. That just shows you a tremendous amount

1743
01:26:00,439 --> 01:26:03,479
Speaker 1: of political polarization, which we were talking about earlier. So

1744
01:26:03,560 --> 01:26:06,160
Speaker 1: to have little perceived differences, Kyle, this kind of gets

1745
01:26:06,200 --> 01:26:08,559
Speaker 1: to the Trump question we were talking about earlier, as

1746
01:26:08,600 --> 01:26:11,080
Speaker 1: to all the stuff which is in a level of

1747
01:26:11,160 --> 01:26:16,439
Speaker 1: such partisan hatred, of polarization, the other side is always

1748
01:26:16,520 --> 01:26:19,599
Speaker 1: just perceived as as is extreme. And I think that

1749
01:26:19,600 --> 01:26:22,400
Speaker 1: that Warnock number bears that out to find it really interesting.

1750
01:26:22,560 --> 01:26:25,760
Speaker 1: So we do have some numbers very early out of

1751
01:26:25,800 --> 01:26:31,880
Speaker 1: Pennsylvania five percent, and found this dude, Ryan Dido, who

1752
01:26:32,000 --> 01:26:36,640
Speaker 1: is a reporter for Pittsburgh Paper, and he says, in

1753
01:26:36,720 --> 01:26:40,000
Speaker 1: terms of how you interpret these results coming out of Pennsylvania,

1754
01:26:40,600 --> 01:26:44,360
Speaker 1: very likely Fetterman will when vast majority of mail in's

1755
01:26:44,400 --> 01:26:47,080
Speaker 1: that's what's going to be counted first. Then OZ is

1756
01:26:47,080 --> 01:26:49,040
Speaker 1: going to appear to gain ground is in person votes

1757
01:26:49,040 --> 01:26:51,599
Speaker 1: are counted, and then fetter Men will appear to gain

1758
01:26:51,640 --> 01:26:54,600
Speaker 1: some ground with late arriving mail ins. So just in

1759
01:26:54,720 --> 01:26:59,000
Speaker 1: terms of how you're viewing these numbers as they're coming in,

1760
01:26:59,320 --> 01:27:02,160
Speaker 1: it's really important to keep those dynamics in mind, not

1761
01:27:02,320 --> 01:27:05,160
Speaker 1: just in Pennsylvania but all over the map because all

1762
01:27:05,240 --> 01:27:07,760
Speaker 1: of these states have a different different rules about how

1763
01:27:07,840 --> 01:27:10,479
Speaker 1: and when and where what they count at what time.

1764
01:27:10,600 --> 01:27:13,519
Speaker 1: So just keep that really in mind as you're taking

1765
01:27:13,520 --> 01:27:15,559
Speaker 1: a look at all of this. So far, most of

1766
01:27:15,600 --> 01:27:18,080
Speaker 1: the votes have come in from places that are, you know,

1767
01:27:18,160 --> 01:27:21,200
Speaker 1: more favorable to Fetterman. You've got a lot of votes

1768
01:27:21,200 --> 01:27:22,840
Speaker 1: in from Philly, you got a lot of vote votes

1769
01:27:22,880 --> 01:27:26,080
Speaker 1: in from Pittsburgh. And it is also that you know,

1770
01:27:26,240 --> 01:27:29,679
Speaker 1: early the mail in ballot so far, so very favorable

1771
01:27:29,720 --> 01:27:32,000
Speaker 1: results right now for Fetterman. But it's five percent in

1772
01:27:32,040 --> 01:27:33,760
Speaker 1: and it's mostly the mail in vote, so you literally

1773
01:27:33,840 --> 01:27:36,439
Speaker 1: have them right now at eighty five percent. It's I

1774
01:27:36,439 --> 01:27:38,439
Speaker 1: don't think it's going to end up being an eighty

1775
01:27:38,439 --> 01:27:42,840
Speaker 1: five percent kind of a that's really good context there

1776
01:27:42,880 --> 01:27:44,720
Speaker 1: for the swing, so we could see a swing fatter Man,

1777
01:27:44,840 --> 01:27:47,720
Speaker 1: then back to us, then maybe back to Fatterman. I mean,

1778
01:27:47,760 --> 01:27:50,559
Speaker 1: that's just I just really want everybody to be patient

1779
01:27:50,920 --> 01:27:55,080
Speaker 1: and not like read anything nefarious into these vote totals

1780
01:27:55,160 --> 01:27:57,960
Speaker 1: changing because it's predictable because Republicans have made it a

1781
01:27:57,960 --> 01:28:00,880
Speaker 1: strategy strategy of like we are going to have our

1782
01:28:00,960 --> 01:28:03,920
Speaker 1: voters go to the polls on election day. There is

1783
01:28:03,960 --> 01:28:07,000
Speaker 1: a hard partisan divide between how the parties are approaching

1784
01:28:07,000 --> 01:28:10,320
Speaker 1: these elections, and so that's why you may see some

1785
01:28:10,400 --> 01:28:12,680
Speaker 1: kind of wild swings of these vote totals throughout the night.

1786
01:28:12,720 --> 01:28:14,360
Speaker 1: And why frankly, like when you look at a lot

1787
01:28:14,360 --> 01:28:17,840
Speaker 1: of these states that we expect to end up being close.

1788
01:28:17,960 --> 01:28:21,160
Speaker 1: I mean, right now, the Democrats are up in New Hampshire,

1789
01:28:21,160 --> 01:28:23,200
Speaker 1: They're up in North Carolina, They're up in Georgia, they're

1790
01:28:23,280 --> 01:28:26,960
Speaker 1: up in Pennsylvania, they're up in Ohio. But again, this

1791
01:28:27,200 --> 01:28:29,760
Speaker 1: is the probably and most if not all of those

1792
01:28:29,840 --> 01:28:32,800
Speaker 1: places the early mailand vote, which we expect to be

1793
01:28:32,880 --> 01:28:35,360
Speaker 1: overwhelmingly Democratics. So I wouldn't read too much into any

1794
01:28:35,400 --> 01:28:38,120
Speaker 1: of that. Yeah, And to your point, usually they'll like

1795
01:28:38,760 --> 01:28:41,120
Speaker 1: they'll count all of the ones from election day and

1796
01:28:41,160 --> 01:28:42,880
Speaker 1: then at the end more mailands like you said, so

1797
01:28:42,960 --> 01:28:44,679
Speaker 1: this is why they say. There was an article earlier

1798
01:28:44,720 --> 01:28:48,559
Speaker 1: today in ABC talking about there were three states in

1799
01:28:48,600 --> 01:28:51,240
Speaker 1: particular that they say a red mirage scenario could happen.

1800
01:28:51,400 --> 01:28:53,679
Speaker 1: But unfortunately, Look, I think we're going to see people

1801
01:28:53,720 --> 01:28:59,160
Speaker 1: out there making all sorts of bad claims when they say, oh,

1802
01:28:59,200 --> 01:29:00,880
Speaker 1: why why is the Democrat coming back now that it's

1803
01:29:00,920 --> 01:29:03,120
Speaker 1: two days later and there's nothing to fairies about it.

1804
01:29:03,200 --> 01:29:05,439
Speaker 1: You know, we're saying it beforehand, just like you know

1805
01:29:05,439 --> 01:29:08,639
Speaker 1: in the twenty twenty election, when I was on Joe

1806
01:29:08,720 --> 01:29:11,599
Speaker 1: Rogan Show with Tim Dillon, I was telling them up front, like, look, man,

1807
01:29:11,640 --> 01:29:14,240
Speaker 1: this is what's going to happen. And Joe says, now,

1808
01:29:14,320 --> 01:29:16,200
Speaker 1: like the only reason he didn't end up going down

1809
01:29:16,240 --> 01:29:18,040
Speaker 1: a bad path with the election is because I was

1810
01:29:18,040 --> 01:29:20,439
Speaker 1: there to tell him beforehand what was going to happen. This, Wow,

1811
01:29:20,479 --> 01:29:23,439
Speaker 1: it's gonna unfold. Look, I know no one will heed this,

1812
01:29:23,560 --> 01:29:26,280
Speaker 1: but can we please please just make it so that

1813
01:29:26,320 --> 01:29:29,640
Speaker 1: we can count early votes like before the day of

1814
01:29:29,880 --> 01:29:33,200
Speaker 1: Like so many of these state legislators across the Midwest

1815
01:29:33,200 --> 01:29:35,360
Speaker 1: have made it so that you can't do that, I

1816
01:29:35,400 --> 01:29:40,439
Speaker 1: think personally because they like the chaos. Well, because a

1817
01:29:40,520 --> 01:29:44,320
Speaker 1: lot bad for us. It's a lot of Republicans they

1818
01:29:44,360 --> 01:29:47,280
Speaker 1: want that passed these rules and then they like complain

1819
01:29:47,320 --> 01:29:49,559
Speaker 1: about like why is it so crazy? It's like you

1820
01:29:49,640 --> 01:29:52,360
Speaker 1: literally made this rule, Like go look in the mirror.

1821
01:29:52,520 --> 01:29:56,920
Speaker 1: This stuff drives me insane. What's that I voted early

1822
01:29:56,960 --> 01:30:00,439
Speaker 1: in person, I voted in person today, which is stand

1823
01:30:00,439 --> 01:30:04,880
Speaker 1: on that actual day. You're literally I literally have one

1824
01:30:04,920 --> 01:30:07,719
Speaker 1: of the most least competitive districts in the country. So basically,

1825
01:30:08,120 --> 01:30:11,040
Speaker 1: I mean I'm not normally re drew all the districts

1826
01:30:11,040 --> 01:30:14,160
Speaker 1: in Virginia, and so for the rest of my entire

1827
01:30:14,280 --> 01:30:16,800
Speaker 1: life in King George County, it has not been in competitive,

1828
01:30:16,800 --> 01:30:19,479
Speaker 1: including the race that I personally ran in, right, but

1829
01:30:19,760 --> 01:30:22,880
Speaker 1: now I'm in you know, the Spanburger district actually is

1830
01:30:22,880 --> 01:30:24,439
Speaker 1: one of the ones that everybody's watching. That is such

1831
01:30:24,439 --> 01:30:27,160
Speaker 1: an amazing Like the fact that Biden's last campaign stop

1832
01:30:27,280 --> 01:30:29,640
Speaker 1: was Ashbourne, Virginia. I just can't get over that. Like

1833
01:30:29,720 --> 01:30:33,519
Speaker 1: for context audience, he won. Biden won that district by

1834
01:30:33,680 --> 01:30:37,200
Speaker 1: nineteen percentage points in twenty twenty, So to have to

1835
01:30:37,240 --> 01:30:40,200
Speaker 1: stop over there, you highlighted this a He's not that popular,

1836
01:30:40,240 --> 01:30:43,000
Speaker 1: so most people just don't really want him in their district.

1837
01:30:43,080 --> 01:30:47,799
Speaker 1: So he's terribly he is bad. They're sorry. I celebrate

1838
01:30:47,840 --> 01:30:50,680
Speaker 1: some of the policy victories and like personnel choices, but

1839
01:30:50,800 --> 01:30:53,439
Speaker 1: he's he can't speak. He's a terrible campaign er. So

1840
01:30:53,840 --> 01:30:56,320
Speaker 1: they're sending him places where it's like, yeah, Joe, go

1841
01:30:56,400 --> 01:30:58,680
Speaker 1: down to Florida and see what you could do for

1842
01:30:58,760 --> 01:31:02,280
Speaker 1: Charlie Christ. It's actually really sad in my opinion, because

1843
01:31:02,320 --> 01:31:04,480
Speaker 1: you got to separate it out right. There's the politics

1844
01:31:04,560 --> 01:31:08,040
Speaker 1: and there's policy. Yes, And on the politics front, yeah,

1845
01:31:08,080 --> 01:31:11,080
Speaker 1: Biden's zombie. Biden's half dead, like nobody would want him CA.

1846
01:31:11,160 --> 01:31:13,000
Speaker 1: I mean, Obama goes out there. I think Obama's record

1847
01:31:13,040 --> 01:31:15,640
Speaker 1: policy wise is worse than Biden's. But Obama gave me

1848
01:31:15,960 --> 01:31:18,200
Speaker 1: the other day. Yeah, and it was I mean, I

1849
01:31:18,280 --> 01:31:19,720
Speaker 1: told it, and I was like, I forgot how good

1850
01:31:19,760 --> 01:31:22,559
Speaker 1: this guy was. Listen from Personal Chrisma. Absolutely, we got

1851
01:31:22,600 --> 01:31:25,160
Speaker 1: j Miles Coleman standing by control room. If you guys

1852
01:31:25,160 --> 01:31:26,519
Speaker 1: want to go ahead and bring him in, just give

1853
01:31:26,560 --> 01:31:28,880
Speaker 1: me a heads up whenever he's ready to go for

1854
01:31:29,000 --> 01:31:31,640
Speaker 1: you guys. Remember Jay Miles Coleman. He's joined us a

1855
01:31:31,640 --> 01:31:34,320
Speaker 1: couple of times. Works over at Larry Sabatae's crystal Ball.

1856
01:31:34,600 --> 01:31:37,920
Speaker 1: No relation there, no relation. I'll steal you. Can I

1857
01:31:37,960 --> 01:31:41,920
Speaker 1: tell you a funny story? Yeah? My mom, bless her heart,

1858
01:31:42,360 --> 01:31:45,080
Speaker 1: when I stopped by her house today and she's like,

1859
01:31:45,160 --> 01:31:47,320
Speaker 1: I heard about you on the local news last night.

1860
01:31:47,400 --> 01:31:50,760
Speaker 1: I was like, oh God, what you do now? They

1861
01:31:50,760 --> 01:31:54,120
Speaker 1: were talking about you and this guy Larry and our

1862
01:31:54,200 --> 01:31:59,320
Speaker 1: lesson predictions. And I was like, no, no, Mom, Larry

1863
01:31:59,479 --> 01:32:03,320
Speaker 1: Sabagage crystal Ball at the University of Virginia. So anyway,

1864
01:32:03,400 --> 01:32:06,120
Speaker 1: my mother was wishcasting that the local news was touched.

1865
01:32:06,120 --> 01:32:09,879
Speaker 1: It's OK, but breaking points audience, they know what's going on. Miles.

1866
01:32:10,040 --> 01:32:11,920
Speaker 1: We go and bring Miles in. Guys. You guys said

1867
01:32:12,080 --> 01:32:14,160
Speaker 1: he's ready. Hey Miles, let's go and put it. Throw

1868
01:32:14,200 --> 01:32:15,639
Speaker 1: him up there on the screen. Welcome to the show.

1869
01:32:15,880 --> 01:32:18,920
Speaker 1: It's good to see you. Can he hear us? There is? Yeah?

1870
01:32:19,720 --> 01:32:22,320
Speaker 1: Oh I'm not sure there is? Gotcha? All right? So, Miles,

1871
01:32:22,880 --> 01:32:27,240
Speaker 1: just in terms of the Senate picture numbers are very early.

1872
01:32:27,800 --> 01:32:31,440
Speaker 1: Are there any Is there anything that, like tea leaves wise,

1873
01:32:31,720 --> 01:32:34,360
Speaker 1: is standing out to you that's giving you any sense

1874
01:32:34,520 --> 01:32:38,000
Speaker 1: of what directions might night might go in? Sure, So

1875
01:32:38,400 --> 01:32:40,760
Speaker 1: one of the sort of early bell weathers, I told

1876
01:32:40,800 --> 01:32:44,280
Speaker 1: people to look out for if the Republicans could beat

1877
01:32:44,360 --> 01:32:49,479
Speaker 1: Senator Maggie Hassen in New Hampshire. Some polls had her

1878
01:32:49,479 --> 01:32:52,840
Speaker 1: in a close race. From from what I'm seeing, she's

1879
01:32:52,960 --> 01:32:57,880
Speaker 1: overperforming Joe Biden's numbers with some areas. So she's looking

1880
01:32:58,000 --> 01:33:01,040
Speaker 1: pretty good. So, you know, probably not going to be

1881
01:33:01,240 --> 01:33:03,280
Speaker 1: you know, it could be a good Republican night, but

1882
01:33:03,280 --> 01:33:08,520
Speaker 1: it's not going to be the whole damn breaks right. Yeah,

1883
01:33:08,680 --> 01:33:11,960
Speaker 1: And then it's it's what I'm noticed. In a state

1884
01:33:12,120 --> 01:33:17,360
Speaker 1: like Georgia, as expected, you have Warnock who is over

1885
01:33:17,439 --> 01:33:21,200
Speaker 1: performing Stacy Abrams by a few points. We're just gonna

1886
01:33:21,200 --> 01:33:23,000
Speaker 1: have to see if it gets to the point where

1887
01:33:23,000 --> 01:33:25,759
Speaker 1: he can actually he win out right and to runoff.

1888
01:33:26,360 --> 01:33:30,160
Speaker 1: It's interesting. So you feel like in Georgia, you said,

1889
01:33:30,160 --> 01:33:32,920
Speaker 1: the question for Warnock is whether he can win outright

1890
01:33:33,080 --> 01:33:35,640
Speaker 1: or go to a runoff. You think he's in that

1891
01:33:35,800 --> 01:33:38,439
Speaker 1: strong of a position right now vis a vis Walker

1892
01:33:38,479 --> 01:33:40,080
Speaker 1: that you think he'll end up with more votes on

1893
01:33:40,080 --> 01:33:43,479
Speaker 1: the night. You know, he could end up ahead of Walker,

1894
01:33:43,560 --> 01:33:46,360
Speaker 1: but he may still be under fifty percent. You know.

1895
01:33:46,479 --> 01:33:50,840
Speaker 1: One you know, one of my favorite ads was basically

1896
01:33:50,880 --> 01:33:55,200
Speaker 1: Warnock had this ad that, Okay, well, you know I

1897
01:33:55,320 --> 01:33:58,400
Speaker 1: may be one of your Thanksgiving guests if my race

1898
01:33:58,479 --> 01:34:00,759
Speaker 1: goes to a runoff into Sound where you'll be seeing

1899
01:34:00,800 --> 01:34:04,880
Speaker 1: more of my ad, So want to avoid having him

1900
01:34:04,920 --> 01:34:09,519
Speaker 1: over for Thanksgiving. That's interesting. Another thing that is interesting

1901
01:34:09,560 --> 01:34:12,000
Speaker 1: to me about what you said in New Hampshire is

1902
01:34:12,080 --> 01:34:14,840
Speaker 1: I'm just looking at the presidential results because you said

1903
01:34:14,880 --> 01:34:18,719
Speaker 1: Maggie Hassen is outperforming Joe Biden. I mean, Joe Biden

1904
01:34:18,840 --> 01:34:23,519
Speaker 1: won New Hampshire easily. He won that state by more

1905
01:34:23,560 --> 01:34:27,439
Speaker 1: than seven points. The polls had Maggie Hassen, some of

1906
01:34:27,479 --> 01:34:31,400
Speaker 1: them had her down, the mainstream poles mostly had her

1907
01:34:31,479 --> 01:34:35,360
Speaker 1: up by one two points. I was very close. So

1908
01:34:35,479 --> 01:34:38,599
Speaker 1: if she's out performing even Joe Biden's margin, I mean,

1909
01:34:38,680 --> 01:34:42,639
Speaker 1: that's a significant polling miss in a direction that we're

1910
01:34:42,680 --> 01:34:46,720
Speaker 1: not used to getting significant polling misses. Oh yes, and

1911
01:34:46,920 --> 01:34:49,559
Speaker 1: you know, just with the usual caveats that you know

1912
01:34:49,680 --> 01:34:53,400
Speaker 1: these results are incomplete, but you know, one of the

1913
01:34:53,439 --> 01:34:56,800
Speaker 1: things you can keep us so sort of looking for

1914
01:34:58,439 --> 01:35:03,240
Speaker 1: in our election return is, I think educational polarization or

1915
01:35:03,280 --> 01:35:07,120
Speaker 1: whether or not you have a college degree. I think

1916
01:35:07,439 --> 01:35:11,320
Speaker 1: as is basically becoming as important as things like race

1917
01:35:11,439 --> 01:35:14,680
Speaker 1: or gender when it comes to how people book. Well,

1918
01:35:14,720 --> 01:35:19,040
Speaker 1: guess what, New Hampshire is a relatively more college educated state.

1919
01:35:19,720 --> 01:35:22,479
Speaker 1: So I can see Democrats holding up better in a

1920
01:35:22,520 --> 01:35:26,360
Speaker 1: state like that compared to one like four where you

1921
01:35:26,400 --> 01:35:29,919
Speaker 1: have more of a working class population. I mean, especially

1922
01:35:29,960 --> 01:35:34,280
Speaker 1: in especially in a place like my Miami off for

1923
01:35:34,439 --> 01:35:38,120
Speaker 1: the Republic, off of for the them Democrats. But so

1924
01:35:38,160 --> 01:35:42,240
Speaker 1: you know, just some it's it's just from election to

1925
01:35:42,280 --> 01:35:45,280
Speaker 1: election you can always see some of these larger trends

1926
01:35:45,280 --> 01:35:50,400
Speaker 1: as at play. That's fascinating. We are very early in

1927
01:35:50,439 --> 01:35:53,920
Speaker 1: what we're getting in from Pennsylvania. I'm looking at this

1928
01:35:54,280 --> 01:35:58,200
Speaker 1: decision desk HQ right now, they've got five point three

1929
01:35:58,320 --> 01:36:03,000
Speaker 1: four percent. In my understanding is this is likely mail

1930
01:36:03,080 --> 01:36:07,000
Speaker 1: in vote that they're counting in Pennsylvania first. Is there

1931
01:36:07,040 --> 01:36:09,840
Speaker 1: anything that you can read into those results, because that's

1932
01:36:09,880 --> 01:36:12,240
Speaker 1: obviously maybe the race of the night. To take a

1933
01:36:12,240 --> 01:36:18,840
Speaker 1: look at Pennsylvania, I would avoid No, I mean okay there,

1934
01:36:20,080 --> 01:36:24,160
Speaker 1: I mean it really was until at really in twenty twenty,

1935
01:36:24,200 --> 01:36:27,160
Speaker 1: it wasn't called for Joe Biden until the Friday or

1936
01:36:27,200 --> 01:36:31,360
Speaker 1: Saturday after the election. So I don't think we'll have

1937
01:36:31,439 --> 01:36:35,840
Speaker 1: to wait that long. But the thing, every state is

1938
01:36:36,400 --> 01:36:39,479
Speaker 1: sort of different in terms of how it counts its vote,

1939
01:36:39,640 --> 01:36:43,080
Speaker 1: so just something to keep in mind. So I think

1940
01:36:43,160 --> 01:36:46,120
Speaker 1: in a state with Pennsylvania, they may just be counting

1941
01:36:46,160 --> 01:36:49,360
Speaker 1: all their mail in votes first. So yeah, go ahead,

1942
01:36:49,400 --> 01:36:51,719
Speaker 1: sicker Miles. What do you make of the college dynamic

1943
01:36:51,760 --> 01:36:53,880
Speaker 1: in Georgia that you were talking about, and how will

1944
01:36:53,920 --> 01:36:56,959
Speaker 1: that bear out whenever we're looking there also in Arizona

1945
01:36:57,000 --> 01:36:59,720
Speaker 1: and some of the other key Bell Weather states. Yeah,

1946
01:37:00,160 --> 01:37:03,719
Speaker 1: it's it's well, it's basically that same group of more

1947
01:37:03,760 --> 01:37:08,320
Speaker 1: college educated white vote voters who you know, a lot

1948
01:37:08,320 --> 01:37:13,080
Speaker 1: of those voters used to be Republicans like Democrats a

1949
01:37:13,080 --> 01:37:17,240
Speaker 1: bit more now. So to me, the big question is, yes,

1950
01:37:17,360 --> 01:37:19,840
Speaker 1: I can see a lot of those going for Governor Kemp,

1951
01:37:20,600 --> 01:37:23,439
Speaker 1: but how many of them are going to stick with

1952
01:37:23,560 --> 01:37:25,960
Speaker 1: Warnock and how many of them are going going to

1953
01:37:26,040 --> 01:37:28,760
Speaker 1: sort of hold their nose and sort of vote for

1954
01:37:28,800 --> 01:37:34,639
Speaker 1: herschel Walker. It looks like, again these results are very early.

1955
01:37:35,520 --> 01:37:39,240
Speaker 1: You know. It looks like Warnock is at least matching

1956
01:37:39,280 --> 01:37:44,920
Speaker 1: what Joe Biden got in the Atlanta area, So it's

1957
01:37:44,960 --> 01:37:47,960
Speaker 1: going to be very close. Okay, I got another one

1958
01:37:47,960 --> 01:37:53,160
Speaker 1: for you, miles. How about North Carolina. We've got Sherry Beasley,

1959
01:37:53,400 --> 01:37:56,280
Speaker 1: who in some polls you know, was running even I

1960
01:37:56,320 --> 01:37:58,519
Speaker 1: saw a couple of polls that had her up over

1961
01:37:58,880 --> 01:38:02,559
Speaker 1: Republicans had bud Right. Now, you've got fifty four percent

1962
01:38:02,680 --> 01:38:05,519
Speaker 1: in there, and she has a sizeable lead, fifty two

1963
01:38:05,520 --> 01:38:09,599
Speaker 1: percent to forty six percent roughly. How do they count

1964
01:38:09,640 --> 01:38:13,160
Speaker 1: their ballots? Where are those votes coming from? What do

1965
01:38:13,200 --> 01:38:16,519
Speaker 1: you think of her performance there thus far? Sure so, no,

1966
01:38:16,680 --> 01:38:18,759
Speaker 1: I mean, I think she's putting up a pretty decent

1967
01:38:18,880 --> 01:38:21,360
Speaker 1: per performance. It was something you have to keep in

1968
01:38:21,400 --> 01:38:24,880
Speaker 1: mind about knowing North Carolina is there sort of like Pennsylvania.

1969
01:38:25,000 --> 01:38:27,960
Speaker 1: Like we were just talked talking about North Carolina is

1970
01:38:27,960 --> 01:38:32,599
Speaker 1: a state that basically reports its early votes first uh,

1971
01:38:32,800 --> 01:38:36,160
Speaker 1: and as an election day batch comes in, stuff gets

1972
01:38:36,200 --> 01:38:40,320
Speaker 1: more Republican. In fact, that's what basically save Donald Trump.

1973
01:38:41,120 --> 01:38:46,080
Speaker 1: Really twenty twenty, Joe Bonden won the early and mail

1974
01:38:46,120 --> 01:38:49,360
Speaker 1: in vote, but Donald Trump got sixty five percent of

1975
01:38:49,400 --> 01:38:52,040
Speaker 1: the election day vote and that's what sort of killed

1976
01:38:52,080 --> 01:38:55,479
Speaker 1: the Democrats there. So you know, we'll see, I mean,

1977
01:38:55,560 --> 01:38:59,559
Speaker 1: what's what's you know, what's really interesting is I'm looking

1978
01:38:59,640 --> 01:39:04,320
Speaker 1: at a like, oh, like this would be Wake, which

1979
01:39:04,400 --> 01:39:06,880
Speaker 1: is the capital Raleigh. You know that used to be

1980
01:39:07,000 --> 01:39:11,839
Speaker 1: sort of a marginal county. Beasley's at over seventy percent

1981
01:39:11,920 --> 01:39:15,479
Speaker 1: there and She's probably gonna at least get over sixty.

1982
01:39:16,240 --> 01:39:18,599
Speaker 1: So you know, we're really seeing this sort of urban

1983
01:39:18,760 --> 01:39:22,840
Speaker 1: versus a rural trend in North Carolina. That's interesting, Miles.

1984
01:39:23,240 --> 01:39:25,880
Speaker 1: As the polls close around nine o'clock, and then further

1985
01:39:26,200 --> 01:39:27,720
Speaker 1: what are some of the things that people should keep

1986
01:39:27,760 --> 01:39:30,080
Speaker 1: in mind as some of the information comes in. I'm

1987
01:39:30,120 --> 01:39:32,280
Speaker 1: thinking of places like Wisconsin. I think a lot of

1988
01:39:32,320 --> 01:39:34,800
Speaker 1: eyes are going to be on the Midwest there, also

1989
01:39:34,920 --> 01:39:37,160
Speaker 1: in Arizona, and then even you know, I heard some

1990
01:39:37,240 --> 01:39:40,439
Speaker 1: rumblings around Washington and things like that. So any thoughts

1991
01:39:40,439 --> 01:39:44,200
Speaker 1: as we think even more further west of the country. Yeah,

1992
01:39:44,280 --> 01:39:47,200
Speaker 1: it's well, what you have to keep in mind is

1993
01:39:47,640 --> 01:39:52,280
Speaker 1: voting by mail east before twenty twenty has been more

1994
01:39:52,280 --> 01:39:55,519
Speaker 1: of a West coast thing, So Arizona is going to

1995
01:39:55,600 --> 01:39:58,880
Speaker 1: take several days to count's about So I would just

1996
01:39:58,920 --> 01:40:02,800
Speaker 1: tell people would be Pati, Okay, yeah, that makes one

1997
01:40:02,840 --> 01:40:05,760
Speaker 1: more for you before we let you go for now,

1998
01:40:05,960 --> 01:40:10,040
Speaker 1: Miles is Ohio. You know this was a big Democratic hope.

1999
01:40:10,479 --> 01:40:13,160
Speaker 1: This is a state that is trended hard to the right.

2000
01:40:13,479 --> 01:40:15,559
Speaker 1: You know, there were some polls showing Joe Biden having

2001
01:40:15,680 --> 01:40:18,040
Speaker 1: chance of winning Ohio in the final days of that campaign.

2002
01:40:18,080 --> 01:40:19,880
Speaker 1: That obviously didn't work out. I think Trump won the

2003
01:40:19,880 --> 01:40:23,040
Speaker 1: state by about eight points in the final days. It

2004
01:40:23,080 --> 01:40:26,200
Speaker 1: seemed like jad Vans was really pulling away from Tim Ryan.

2005
01:40:26,640 --> 01:40:29,439
Speaker 1: Were again in a situation where it was very early.

2006
01:40:29,560 --> 01:40:33,000
Speaker 1: We've got only nineteen percent in Tim Ryan at sixty

2007
01:40:33,040 --> 01:40:36,840
Speaker 1: percent JD Vans at forty percent. How is Tim Ryan

2008
01:40:36,920 --> 01:40:40,040
Speaker 1: or can you even tell at this point running versus

2009
01:40:40,120 --> 01:40:43,880
Speaker 1: how Joe Biden ran in twenty twenty. What I would

2010
01:40:43,880 --> 01:40:47,840
Speaker 1: say is it's actually looking a lot like what we

2011
01:40:47,880 --> 01:40:51,280
Speaker 1: had two years ago, because remember early on election n

2012
01:40:51,400 --> 01:40:53,760
Speaker 1: Boden was up about ten points there. You know, that's

2013
01:40:53,800 --> 01:40:58,000
Speaker 1: about where Ja where Tim Ron is now only for

2014
01:40:58,160 --> 01:41:02,519
Speaker 1: those election day votes in and give it to Donald Trump.

2015
01:41:02,560 --> 01:41:06,760
Speaker 1: So I can see I can see Van's pulp on

2016
01:41:06,960 --> 01:41:11,280
Speaker 1: off to me, the value for Tim Ryan, uh, you know,

2017
01:41:11,360 --> 01:41:14,760
Speaker 1: may have been this is a state that republic at

2018
01:41:14,880 --> 01:41:18,200
Speaker 1: least he made it into a race. Republicans had to

2019
01:41:18,240 --> 01:41:21,680
Speaker 1: spend millions of dollars there just to shore up Ohio.

2020
01:41:22,800 --> 01:41:26,040
Speaker 1: Maybe those millions who had they run a better candidate

2021
01:41:26,560 --> 01:41:29,360
Speaker 1: could have gone to a state like New Hampshire or

2022
01:41:29,439 --> 01:41:33,120
Speaker 1: North Carolina or Nevada or Georgia, basically a state that

2023
01:41:33,800 --> 01:41:36,799
Speaker 1: may be more decisive in terms of control of the Senate.

2024
01:41:37,400 --> 01:41:39,840
Speaker 1: Got it, well, great point. We're going to check in

2025
01:41:39,880 --> 01:41:42,639
Speaker 1: with you, possibly in another hour. Producers will be in touch.

2026
01:41:42,680 --> 01:41:45,840
Speaker 1: But man, so so helpful. We always love having you

2027
01:41:45,880 --> 01:41:48,559
Speaker 1: on the show. All right, thank you' all, Thank you

2028
01:41:48,640 --> 01:41:52,519
Speaker 1: very much. So New Hampshire. Yeah, I mean takeaways from

2029
01:41:52,560 --> 01:41:56,080
Speaker 1: Miles is that the blowout has not yet appeared. It's

2030
01:41:56,160 --> 01:42:00,360
Speaker 1: possible could materialize. But given his knowledge of exactly where

2031
01:42:00,360 --> 01:42:02,960
Speaker 1: the election was in twenty twenty, things to look for,

2032
01:42:03,120 --> 01:42:06,680
Speaker 1: the fact that Maggie Hassen outperforming Biden, I might have

2033
01:42:06,760 --> 01:42:08,840
Speaker 1: to eat grow on this one. I really thought that

2034
01:42:08,840 --> 01:42:11,040
Speaker 1: that one might be one of the flips. It's not

2035
01:42:11,400 --> 01:42:15,080
Speaker 1: just that she's out performing again. Biden won that state

2036
01:42:15,120 --> 01:42:17,760
Speaker 1: by more than seven points. It was not close. That's right.

2037
01:42:18,280 --> 01:42:20,720
Speaker 1: This was really coming down the stretch of jump ball

2038
01:42:20,800 --> 01:42:23,559
Speaker 1: in terms of what the polls were saying. So what

2039
01:42:23,600 --> 01:42:26,800
Speaker 1: that is reflecting is actually a miss on the polls, right,

2040
01:42:26,960 --> 01:42:31,280
Speaker 1: but underestimating the Democrats, which is something that we saw

2041
01:42:31,320 --> 01:42:34,800
Speaker 1: in a couple of those special elections that got Democrats

2042
01:42:34,880 --> 01:42:38,519
Speaker 1: really really super hopeful right after Roe versus Wade. So

2043
01:42:38,800 --> 01:42:41,600
Speaker 1: that's that is pretty stunning to me. How much of

2044
01:42:41,640 --> 01:42:45,719
Speaker 1: this is a function of, like, you know, there's early

2045
01:42:45,800 --> 01:42:48,480
Speaker 1: voting in a lot of these states, and the polls

2046
01:42:48,600 --> 01:42:51,360
Speaker 1: the further back you go, the more favorable they are

2047
01:42:51,360 --> 01:42:53,600
Speaker 1: too Democrats, correct, So how much of this can we

2048
01:42:53,640 --> 01:42:56,400
Speaker 1: attribute to that? Do you think in New Hampshire? Well,

2049
01:42:56,400 --> 01:42:59,040
Speaker 1: in New hamp anywhere we're seeing democratic Hampshire in particular,

2050
01:42:59,080 --> 01:43:01,960
Speaker 1: you said they don't really early, they don't all, yeah,

2051
01:43:02,000 --> 01:43:06,200
Speaker 1: which was why September so like voting hadn't quite yeah,

2052
01:43:06,200 --> 01:43:08,640
Speaker 1: but I mean that was part of why Democrats were

2053
01:43:08,680 --> 01:43:11,240
Speaker 1: getting really nervous and Republicans were getting really hopeful about

2054
01:43:11,280 --> 01:43:13,640
Speaker 1: New Hampshire is exactly that dynamic you're talking about in

2055
01:43:13,680 --> 01:43:16,120
Speaker 1: a lot of other states. They were able to bank

2056
01:43:16,280 --> 01:43:19,760
Speaker 1: votes while their positioning was a bit more favorable than

2057
01:43:19,800 --> 01:43:22,240
Speaker 1: it seemed to erode down the stretch. But you know,

2058
01:43:22,439 --> 01:43:24,920
Speaker 1: I mean what Miles is saying there, and I think

2059
01:43:25,000 --> 01:43:27,719
Speaker 1: it's really important to have a lot of caveats in because,

2060
01:43:28,080 --> 01:43:31,000
Speaker 1: as I try to say, every like five minutes each

2061
01:43:31,040 --> 01:43:33,559
Speaker 1: of these states counts votes differently. It's very hard to tell.

2062
01:43:33,640 --> 01:43:36,160
Speaker 1: Are these mail in ballots are the day of ballots

2063
01:43:36,200 --> 01:43:38,759
Speaker 1: like that could shift everything, that could really change the picture,

2064
01:43:38,760 --> 01:43:43,800
Speaker 1: et cetera. But he's saying in New Hampshire, in Georgia,

2065
01:43:43,840 --> 01:43:47,599
Speaker 1: and in North Carolina, at least the Democratic candidates are

2066
01:43:47,600 --> 01:43:51,519
Speaker 1: actually out running Joe Biden, and in North Carolina, Joe

2067
01:43:51,560 --> 01:43:54,559
Speaker 1: Biden did not lose by all that much. I mean,

2068
01:43:54,560 --> 01:43:57,280
Speaker 1: that ended up being a very close race. So to

2069
01:43:57,320 --> 01:44:00,280
Speaker 1: be honest with you, I never really bought the poles

2070
01:44:00,360 --> 01:44:03,920
Speaker 1: that had the Democrat in striking distance in the state

2071
01:44:03,960 --> 01:44:06,639
Speaker 1: of North Carolina. But at least where we sit right

2072
01:44:06,720 --> 01:44:10,160
Speaker 1: now with some fifty eight percent in apparently she's really

2073
01:44:10,240 --> 01:44:13,000
Speaker 1: got a shot. That is. Yeah. Look, it's very interesting.

2074
01:44:13,160 --> 01:44:15,040
Speaker 1: I don't know. I mean, my takeaway from Miles is

2075
01:44:15,400 --> 01:44:17,320
Speaker 1: kind of what I expected, which is that it's going

2076
01:44:17,360 --> 01:44:20,760
Speaker 1: to be complicated. I he's to be multifaceted. I was

2077
01:44:20,880 --> 01:44:24,519
Speaker 1: not expecting the quote unquote read tsunami. In terms of

2078
01:44:24,560 --> 01:44:27,559
Speaker 1: the New Hampshire vote apparently is still only fifteen percent.

2079
01:44:27,960 --> 01:44:31,400
Speaker 1: And so I think that's also the question about early vote,

2080
01:44:31,479 --> 01:44:34,759
Speaker 1: about the mail in ballots, about when exactly they reported

2081
01:44:35,000 --> 01:44:37,560
Speaker 1: the counting. I mean, it has turned into a b

2082
01:44:37,920 --> 01:44:40,320
Speaker 1: Hampshire is the one that must be that should be

2083
01:44:40,400 --> 01:44:43,599
Speaker 1: the most clear because they don't really have early vote.

2084
01:44:43,800 --> 01:44:47,240
Speaker 1: So if he's saying she's out pacing where Biden is,

2085
01:44:47,360 --> 01:44:50,280
Speaker 1: I mean, maybe one thing that could be going on

2086
01:44:50,960 --> 01:44:53,519
Speaker 1: is the places that are being counted right now are

2087
01:44:53,600 --> 01:44:56,920
Speaker 1: the college educated more college educated parts of the state.

2088
01:44:57,160 --> 01:44:59,040
Speaker 1: But overall, as he points out, I mean, New Hampshire

2089
01:44:59,040 --> 01:45:02,559
Speaker 1: demographically in terms of college education, is more favorable dem

2090
01:45:02,760 --> 01:45:06,040
Speaker 1: territory anyway. And so that's kind of consistent with what

2091
01:45:06,080 --> 01:45:09,680
Speaker 1: we saw in that upstate New York special election and

2092
01:45:09,760 --> 01:45:12,280
Speaker 1: a couple of the other special elections as well, where

2093
01:45:12,280 --> 01:45:15,200
Speaker 1: they happened to be in areas that had highly college

2094
01:45:15,320 --> 01:45:17,360
Speaker 1: educated where you might have some college towns, there is

2095
01:45:17,400 --> 01:45:20,040
Speaker 1: a huge surgeon turnout, and so it would kind of

2096
01:45:20,040 --> 01:45:22,800
Speaker 1: fit that you might have that same dynamic in the

2097
01:45:22,800 --> 01:45:25,160
Speaker 1: state of New Hampshire. So I mean, look, this is

2098
01:45:25,200 --> 01:45:28,360
Speaker 1: the simple question to what do you attribute this, assuming

2099
01:45:28,360 --> 01:45:30,800
Speaker 1: it's real for a second, right to what Let's wait,

2100
01:45:31,600 --> 01:45:34,439
Speaker 1: we just don't know, man. It's like I just si

2101
01:45:35,560 --> 01:45:42,400
Speaker 1: soccer if it turns out to be Democrats when George

2102
01:45:42,439 --> 01:45:47,640
Speaker 1: when North Carolina win New Hampshire. Let's not get crazy

2103
01:45:47,760 --> 01:45:51,160
Speaker 1: if they outperform what the polls are saying and they

2104
01:45:51,240 --> 01:45:53,280
Speaker 1: end up holding the Senate, which I think is the

2105
01:45:53,320 --> 01:45:57,200
Speaker 1: best that they could possibly hope run the situation. What's

2106
01:45:57,200 --> 01:45:59,479
Speaker 1: your theory abortion? It's abord, it would be abortion. I

2107
01:45:59,479 --> 01:46:01,479
Speaker 1: think it would be the I mean, look, I actually

2108
01:46:01,520 --> 01:46:03,280
Speaker 1: had this pulled up in order to pivot the discussion.

2109
01:46:03,320 --> 01:46:06,080
Speaker 1: But actually give us exactly thirty five percent of the

2110
01:46:06,160 --> 01:46:08,320
Speaker 1: vote is in in the state of Kentucky right now.

2111
01:46:08,520 --> 01:46:11,760
Speaker 1: The abortion Amendment, which would state there is no right

2112
01:46:11,840 --> 01:46:14,280
Speaker 1: to an abortion or any requirement to fund abortion in

2113
01:46:14,320 --> 01:46:17,519
Speaker 1: the state constitution, is currently the no is leading in

2114
01:46:17,600 --> 01:46:20,000
Speaker 1: fifty six percent. In order to make sure that the

2115
01:46:20,240 --> 01:46:23,920
Speaker 1: so look, you have a Republican state where rand Paul

2116
01:46:24,160 --> 01:46:28,320
Speaker 1: was literally declared the winner, where they are underwater by fifteen.

2117
01:46:28,400 --> 01:46:31,200
Speaker 1: Look again, thirty five percent of the votes that are in.

2118
01:46:31,320 --> 01:46:32,960
Speaker 1: I do think that if the Dems hold on to

2119
01:46:33,000 --> 01:46:36,000
Speaker 1: the Senate, it will be one hundred percent attributable to

2120
01:46:36,080 --> 01:46:39,519
Speaker 1: abortion and Crystal we will have to frankly say, hey,

2121
01:46:39,680 --> 01:46:41,240
Speaker 1: you know that one hundred million or so that you

2122
01:46:41,280 --> 01:46:46,320
Speaker 1: spent on abortion, not only again that is a big if,

2123
01:46:46,360 --> 01:46:48,080
Speaker 1: and I do think we should really hold it, especially

2124
01:46:48,120 --> 01:46:50,080
Speaker 1: with the West coast. Like, given the fact that Arizona

2125
01:46:50,080 --> 01:46:52,280
Speaker 1: and Nevada are going to come in so late, some

2126
01:46:52,320 --> 01:46:54,799
Speaker 1: of our discussion just could reflect the East coast bias.

2127
01:46:55,000 --> 01:46:57,040
Speaker 1: I do think those are really going to change, and

2128
01:46:57,080 --> 01:46:59,920
Speaker 1: it could reflect that earlier. I mean, I do like's

2129
01:47:00,120 --> 01:47:01,920
Speaker 1: be clear, like no one is saying this is the

2130
01:47:01,920 --> 01:47:06,160
Speaker 1: reality that's happening. But if things continue to trend in

2131
01:47:06,200 --> 01:47:09,280
Speaker 1: this direction, I would say abortion is the pivot point.

2132
01:47:09,320 --> 01:47:11,200
Speaker 1: But I would also say, and this kind of ties

2133
01:47:11,240 --> 01:47:15,800
Speaker 1: into the candidate quality issue, it's a general sense of

2134
01:47:15,880 --> 01:47:20,559
Speaker 1: GOP extremism with these specific candidates. Yeah. I mean, first

2135
01:47:20,600 --> 01:47:22,840
Speaker 1: of all, to your point talker about Kentucky, this is

2136
01:47:22,840 --> 01:47:25,479
Speaker 1: why I love direct democracy. Like, one of the data

2137
01:47:25,520 --> 01:47:28,080
Speaker 1: points that always stuck out in my mind was when

2138
01:47:28,160 --> 01:47:31,040
Speaker 1: Donald Trump won Florida in twenty twenty, you also had

2139
01:47:31,040 --> 01:47:34,600
Speaker 1: a fifteen dollars minimum wage, a direct valvotative passed with

2140
01:47:34,800 --> 01:47:38,720
Speaker 1: sixty percent of the vote. So and to your point, Crystal, yeah,

2141
01:47:38,720 --> 01:47:41,679
Speaker 1: I mean, look, so you have a Republican Supreme Court

2142
01:47:41,680 --> 01:47:44,360
Speaker 1: overturning roll versus weight, and then another thing that stuck

2143
01:47:44,360 --> 01:47:45,600
Speaker 1: out to me after the fact. I don't know how

2144
01:47:45,640 --> 01:47:48,120
Speaker 1: many Americans know this, but it really stuck with me.

2145
01:47:48,600 --> 01:47:51,240
Speaker 1: You had a vote in the House on gay marriage.

2146
01:47:51,439 --> 01:47:54,519
Speaker 1: One hundred and fifty seven Republicans voted against it, right

2147
01:47:54,520 --> 01:47:57,679
Speaker 1: one hundred Here, one hundred and ninety five Republicans voted

2148
01:47:57,720 --> 01:48:00,840
Speaker 1: against a right to contraception. So they want, you know,

2149
01:48:00,880 --> 01:48:03,400
Speaker 1: a state like Mississippi or Alabama or whoever, to be

2150
01:48:03,400 --> 01:48:05,240
Speaker 1: able to say no, you can't buy condoms, you can't

2151
01:48:05,240 --> 01:48:07,680
Speaker 1: buy the pill, you can't buy Plan B. So this

2152
01:48:07,760 --> 01:48:09,759
Speaker 1: is I mean, look, and this is why I've always

2153
01:48:09,840 --> 01:48:13,760
Speaker 1: argued Democrats need to embrace freedom, they need to be

2154
01:48:13,800 --> 01:48:15,960
Speaker 1: the onest. Actually, no, we are in favor freedom. They

2155
01:48:15,960 --> 01:48:18,160
Speaker 1: are not in favor freedom. You've got a candidate who

2156
01:48:18,160 --> 01:48:20,640
Speaker 1: has been using that rhetoric and it seems like kind

2157
01:48:20,640 --> 01:48:23,400
Speaker 1: of a wash. But this is Gavin Newsom's whole play

2158
01:48:23,439 --> 01:48:26,559
Speaker 1: because he's spending right a lot money on ads in Florida.

2159
01:48:26,560 --> 01:48:28,000
Speaker 1: But I think that the broad thing that gets I

2160
01:48:28,040 --> 01:48:31,160
Speaker 1: think this gets to why this political moment is frustrating,

2161
01:48:31,200 --> 01:48:34,639
Speaker 1: because Republicans are being rewarded because they're out of power,

2162
01:48:34,880 --> 01:48:37,360
Speaker 1: and our system punishes whoever is in the driver's seat

2163
01:48:37,960 --> 01:48:40,080
Speaker 1: if Republicans do well, Democrats are doing well in twenty

2164
01:48:40,120 --> 01:48:42,560
Speaker 1: twenty six or twenty twenty eight, and vice versa and

2165
01:48:42,680 --> 01:48:44,400
Speaker 1: vice versa. And if we're looking at previous areas of

2166
01:48:44,439 --> 01:48:49,639
Speaker 1: American politics, you just won Reagan just won FDR just one,

2167
01:48:49,760 --> 01:48:52,920
Speaker 1: Kennedy LBJ just one. And just the lack of anyone

2168
01:48:52,960 --> 01:48:55,880
Speaker 1: just to actually control it is the central issue. So

2169
01:48:55,880 --> 01:48:57,760
Speaker 1: here's an interesting insight from nay con I was trying

2170
01:48:57,760 --> 01:49:00,840
Speaker 1: to bring up that actually speaks to J. Miles Holman's point.

2171
01:49:00,880 --> 01:49:03,439
Speaker 1: He says, quote, so far Democrats are running ahead of

2172
01:49:03,439 --> 01:49:07,240
Speaker 1: expectations outside of Florida in places with a meaningful vote,

2173
01:49:07,240 --> 01:49:09,840
Speaker 1: which may still be contaminated with early votes, but they

2174
01:49:09,840 --> 01:49:12,599
Speaker 1: are running way behind in Florida, so it is almost

2175
01:49:12,720 --> 01:49:17,040
Speaker 1: entirely canceling out. So the parathetical is worth worth taking seriously,

2176
01:49:17,360 --> 01:49:21,400
Speaker 1: which is that there isn't much that's unequivocally done outside

2177
01:49:21,439 --> 01:49:27,120
Speaker 1: of Florida right now, so early vote contamination could risk

2178
01:49:27,240 --> 01:49:30,519
Speaker 1: remains very real in terms of the North Carolina results

2179
01:49:30,520 --> 01:49:32,120
Speaker 1: and all those things that were here. Let me get

2180
01:49:32,920 --> 01:49:36,080
Speaker 1: New Hampshire of course accepted, given their unique state there.

2181
01:49:36,160 --> 01:49:38,759
Speaker 1: Let me give you a couple of the specific numbers

2182
01:49:38,760 --> 01:49:42,240
Speaker 1: from New Hampshire, because that's the one that's probably the

2183
01:49:42,280 --> 01:49:45,679
Speaker 1: most clean since they don't have a significant early vote

2184
01:49:46,800 --> 01:49:49,000
Speaker 1: in I don't know any of these towns. I'm sorry,

2185
01:49:49,000 --> 01:49:50,800
Speaker 1: I'm probably gonna butcher all of the names. Not a

2186
01:49:50,800 --> 01:49:52,679
Speaker 1: big New Hampshire stand I mean, I have no problem

2187
01:49:52,720 --> 01:49:54,240
Speaker 1: with New Hampshire. I just don't know the state that well.

2188
01:49:54,280 --> 01:49:57,400
Speaker 1: That's what I'm trying to say here, Okay, Brookline, Biden

2189
01:49:57,520 --> 01:50:02,560
Speaker 1: was plus seven. Maggie Hassen is plus nine. In New Ipswich.

2190
01:50:03,880 --> 01:50:07,280
Speaker 1: I loved you. I love that sounds delicious, by the way, Yeah,

2191
01:50:07,280 --> 01:50:09,080
Speaker 1: I would love an Ipswich. Hey live for your head.

2192
01:50:09,200 --> 01:50:13,280
Speaker 1: I love Trump won by thirty six. Bullduck is actually

2193
01:50:13,320 --> 01:50:17,880
Speaker 1: outperforming Trump a bit plus forty in a Cippy Trump

2194
01:50:17,920 --> 01:50:20,960
Speaker 1: plus twenty one, Bullduck underperforming him a little bit plus nineteen.

2195
01:50:21,160 --> 01:50:26,520
Speaker 1: In Sumrsworth Biden plus fourteen, Hassen plus twenty. In Hillsboro,

2196
01:50:26,800 --> 01:50:31,000
Speaker 1: Trump plus eight, Bullduck underperforming him plus so Bolduck plus three.

2197
01:50:32,120 --> 01:50:34,639
Speaker 1: In the state capitol of Concord, which has ninety four

2198
01:50:34,680 --> 01:50:39,840
Speaker 1: percent reporting, Hassen is at sixty seven percent. Bullduck is

2199
01:50:39,880 --> 01:50:44,280
Speaker 1: at thirty point nine percent. So D plus thirty seven

2200
01:50:44,880 --> 01:50:47,280
Speaker 1: in a town that last time around was D plus

2201
01:50:47,360 --> 01:50:52,200
Speaker 1: thirty two. So it looks like a pretty consistent trend

2202
01:50:52,240 --> 01:50:54,880
Speaker 1: in New Hampshire. I got one more for you here

2203
01:50:54,920 --> 01:50:58,200
Speaker 1: in this thread. This is from Ryan Matsumoto, who is

2204
01:50:58,240 --> 01:51:01,640
Speaker 1: a contributing analyst at Inside Elections Bylines at five thirty eight,

2205
01:51:01,640 --> 01:51:03,439
Speaker 1: et cetera, et cetera. Anyway, I just want to give

2206
01:51:03,439 --> 01:51:06,479
Speaker 1: the guy credit. The town of Fitzwilliam, New Hampshire is

2207
01:51:06,520 --> 01:51:09,760
Speaker 1: now ninety five percent reporting, so very close to all in.

2208
01:51:10,200 --> 01:51:13,240
Speaker 1: Boldock is narrowly ahead here forty nine point one percent

2209
01:51:13,280 --> 01:51:16,960
Speaker 1: to Hassince forty seven point eight percent. That's our plus

2210
01:51:17,040 --> 01:51:19,639
Speaker 1: one point three in a town that was our one

2211
01:51:19,680 --> 01:51:25,360
Speaker 1: point two in twenty twenty. So Boldock is not outperforming Trump,

2212
01:51:25,600 --> 01:51:30,519
Speaker 1: but Hassen seems to be outperforming Biden. And this was

2213
01:51:30,560 --> 01:51:32,960
Speaker 1: one of the other questions is like, you know, part

2214
01:51:33,000 --> 01:51:36,320
Speaker 1: of what we've seen in twenty sixteen, twenty eighteen, and

2215
01:51:36,360 --> 01:51:40,360
Speaker 1: twenty twenty is that Democrats are super enthusiastic. They you know,

2216
01:51:40,439 --> 01:51:42,880
Speaker 1: push their margins up in their places, but it's matched

2217
01:51:42,880 --> 01:51:47,160
Speaker 1: by Republican enthusiasm in rural counties, at least in New Hampshire.

2218
01:51:47,200 --> 01:51:49,439
Speaker 1: Based on the numbers we have right now, you know,

2219
01:51:49,560 --> 01:51:52,640
Speaker 1: this looks very good for Maggie Hassen and Democrats have

2220
01:51:52,720 --> 01:51:56,040
Speaker 1: to be encouraged that at the very least they're not

2221
01:51:56,120 --> 01:51:59,680
Speaker 1: going to be facing the red tsunami that they were

2222
01:51:59,720 --> 01:52:02,400
Speaker 1: starting to really be afraid of. Yes point so far

2223
01:52:02,439 --> 01:52:03,920
Speaker 1: and what we've seen, so we have a little bit

2224
01:52:03,920 --> 01:52:06,040
Speaker 1: more vote coming from Georgia that I can read off.

2225
01:52:06,040 --> 01:52:07,720
Speaker 1: We got about forty eight percent of the vote in,

2226
01:52:07,760 --> 01:52:09,280
Speaker 1: so we're getting a bit of a better idea and

2227
01:52:09,320 --> 01:52:12,240
Speaker 1: it is tightening it up exactly as we expected. So

2228
01:52:12,320 --> 01:52:14,439
Speaker 1: we've got two point one million votes that are in

2229
01:52:14,520 --> 01:52:17,439
Speaker 1: right now. Warnock is currently at fifty percent, herschel Walker

2230
01:52:17,479 --> 01:52:19,640
Speaker 1: at forty eight percent, and exactly to the point that

2231
01:52:19,680 --> 01:52:21,600
Speaker 1: you make Crystal only one point seven percent of the

2232
01:52:21,640 --> 01:52:23,880
Speaker 1: vote right now going to the libertarian So we are

2233
01:52:23,880 --> 01:52:26,920
Speaker 1: talking at a margin here of really we got one million,

2234
01:52:27,040 --> 01:52:30,160
Speaker 1: fifty seven thousand votes there for Raphael Warnock one million,

2235
01:52:30,280 --> 01:52:33,240
Speaker 1: nineteen thousand votes for herschel Wats. So it's a dead heat.

2236
01:52:33,280 --> 01:52:35,840
Speaker 1: I mean, it is close, and the closer and the

2237
01:52:35,880 --> 01:52:40,040
Speaker 1: more that we get to the full counting of you know,

2238
01:52:40,120 --> 01:52:42,400
Speaker 1: all of the mail in ballots and absentee and all

2239
01:52:42,439 --> 01:52:44,800
Speaker 1: that counted along with in day. We are just going

2240
01:52:44,880 --> 01:52:46,439
Speaker 1: to see that. It's I think it's going to take

2241
01:52:46,439 --> 01:52:49,040
Speaker 1: a while in terms of go ahead, go ahead, Kyle, Yeah.

2242
01:52:49,040 --> 01:52:51,720
Speaker 1: Can I give you guys an Ohio update real fast? Yees? Yeah,

2243
01:52:51,720 --> 01:52:54,920
Speaker 1: go ahead. So we have thirty four percent in and

2244
01:52:55,280 --> 01:52:58,640
Speaker 1: Ryan leads Vance by ten points right now. Wow. But

2245
01:52:58,720 --> 01:53:01,200
Speaker 1: I will say this is effectively this is like the

2246
01:53:01,200 --> 01:53:05,599
Speaker 1: blue miragement networks in Ohio. The way they count the votes,

2247
01:53:05,640 --> 01:53:07,280
Speaker 1: and so what you're going to see is as more

2248
01:53:07,400 --> 01:53:09,160
Speaker 1: votes come in, Vance is going to close that gap.

2249
01:53:09,200 --> 01:53:10,920
Speaker 1: Close that gap, close that gap, and then the question

2250
01:53:11,040 --> 01:53:15,240
Speaker 1: is will you overtake him? And if so by how much? Look?

2251
01:53:15,720 --> 01:53:17,680
Speaker 1: I think what goes to what Miles said, which is

2252
01:53:17,680 --> 01:53:19,760
Speaker 1: that you know he was Trump was down by ten

2253
01:53:20,080 --> 01:53:22,839
Speaker 1: then the vote came in. Actually, if I recall from Ohio,

2254
01:53:22,920 --> 01:53:25,519
Speaker 1: Trump ended up beating expectations in a historic degree. There

2255
01:53:25,560 --> 01:53:27,759
Speaker 1: was I forget exactly how to pronounce is it mahoning,

2256
01:53:27,880 --> 01:53:31,240
Speaker 1: mahoning count mahon mahone counting, Sorry, no, mahoning, You're right,

2257
01:53:31,800 --> 01:53:35,880
Speaker 1: all right, I don't mean any disrespect. The point is

2258
01:53:35,880 --> 01:53:38,840
Speaker 1: is that Trump won it in twenty sixteen or sorry,

2259
01:53:38,840 --> 01:53:40,439
Speaker 1: it didn't win in twenty sixteen, it was seen as

2260
01:53:40,439 --> 01:53:42,599
Speaker 1: a belt. Whether he ended up winning it in twenty twenty,

2261
01:53:42,640 --> 01:53:44,640
Speaker 1: which was seen as a big kind of it was

2262
01:53:44,680 --> 01:53:47,320
Speaker 1: an affirmation of his candidacy because I think there was

2263
01:53:47,360 --> 01:53:49,519
Speaker 1: like some GM things that were going on there. My

2264
01:53:49,600 --> 01:53:52,200
Speaker 1: point being that that didn't come until later in the night.

2265
01:53:52,400 --> 01:53:54,479
Speaker 1: So that's something that we have to pay attention to

2266
01:53:54,840 --> 01:53:56,920
Speaker 1: in general. Though I guess I'm being this is just

2267
01:53:56,920 --> 01:53:59,559
Speaker 1: a stark reminder of like how long it can take

2268
01:53:59,600 --> 01:54:02,320
Speaker 1: on electnight for some of this stuff to come in,

2269
01:54:02,439 --> 01:54:05,760
Speaker 1: especially given the dynamics of the way that people all vote. Now,

2270
01:54:06,360 --> 01:54:09,880
Speaker 1: we really don't have that many competitive states with all

2271
01:54:09,880 --> 01:54:11,519
Speaker 1: that much the vote in, so I'll just read it off.

2272
01:54:11,560 --> 01:54:14,240
Speaker 1: Pennsylvania is only at nine percent, Fetterman is up by

2273
01:54:14,479 --> 01:54:17,240
Speaker 1: seventy five. So if you really want to cling to Hope,

2274
01:54:17,479 --> 01:54:21,040
Speaker 1: stop the count. I guess if you're a pahm Ohio,

2275
01:54:21,360 --> 01:54:23,240
Speaker 1: you said only thirty five percent of the vote in

2276
01:54:23,560 --> 01:54:26,360
Speaker 1: Georgia right now is in forty nine. The real stunner,

2277
01:54:26,400 --> 01:54:30,040
Speaker 1: I guess is North Carolina Crystal. You've got Sherry Beasley

2278
01:54:30,439 --> 01:54:34,320
Speaker 1: up by at fifty percent to Ted Budd's forty eight percent,

2279
01:54:34,520 --> 01:54:37,040
Speaker 1: and that's with about sixty percent of the vote which

2280
01:54:37,080 --> 01:54:39,880
Speaker 1: is in now again, you could have the eve vote,

2281
01:54:39,960 --> 01:54:42,720
Speaker 1: the election day vote. It just comes in massively at

2282
01:54:42,720 --> 01:54:45,000
Speaker 1: the end and it's a total blowout. But I have

2283
01:54:45,120 --> 01:54:47,200
Speaker 1: a little bit closer there than I think a lot

2284
01:54:47,240 --> 01:54:50,440
Speaker 1: of other people had anticipated for the House of Representatives.

2285
01:54:50,440 --> 01:54:53,120
Speaker 1: Just to keep everybody updated, I don't have the official number,

2286
01:54:53,320 --> 01:54:55,880
Speaker 1: but you do have a decent amount of flips which

2287
01:54:55,880 --> 01:54:59,080
Speaker 1: have happened here so far. I guess the best one

2288
01:54:59,080 --> 01:55:01,440
Speaker 1: to go with is actually the New York Times needle.

2289
01:55:01,760 --> 01:55:05,080
Speaker 1: If everybody will remember this, Oh, I remember the needle,

2290
01:55:05,480 --> 01:55:08,200
Speaker 1: the infamous needle. It took it away, right, No, no no,

2291
01:55:08,440 --> 01:55:11,880
Speaker 1: they took it away from it. They took they did

2292
01:55:11,920 --> 01:55:14,720
Speaker 1: actually bring it back. So then they brought it here.

2293
01:55:14,840 --> 01:55:18,080
Speaker 1: Oh no, wow, the needle crashed out. That's actually kind

2294
01:55:18,080 --> 01:55:22,160
Speaker 1: of crazy. Oh really, okay, I was just looking stopped

2295
01:55:22,160 --> 01:55:24,000
Speaker 1: the count, all right, two minutes ago. I looked at

2296
01:55:24,000 --> 01:55:26,440
Speaker 1: the needle. I took a little peek, and it was

2297
01:55:26,480 --> 01:55:28,480
Speaker 1: in toss up, but it was a little bit towards

2298
01:55:28,520 --> 01:55:31,160
Speaker 1: the Democrats, but really tossed up, right, Yeah, I was

2299
01:55:31,160 --> 01:55:35,120
Speaker 1: talking about the House. It was like it was lean Republican,

2300
01:55:35,560 --> 01:55:37,360
Speaker 1: but it wasn't like likely. We probably was just over

2301
01:55:37,440 --> 01:55:41,360
Speaker 1: and lean Republicans. Five have a real time updating thing,

2302
01:55:41,400 --> 01:55:43,440
Speaker 1: though New York Times is the only one, the only honestly,

2303
01:55:43,480 --> 01:55:46,120
Speaker 1: it is very useful, but it is also it crashes

2304
01:55:46,120 --> 01:55:48,320
Speaker 1: all the time. And of course all the Dems freaking

2305
01:55:48,320 --> 01:55:51,560
Speaker 1: out from twenty sixteen uh that were saying this. Nate Cone,

2306
01:55:51,600 --> 01:55:53,600
Speaker 1: by the way, for those who are needle watchers, says

2307
01:55:53,760 --> 01:55:56,640
Speaker 1: we need to pull the needle off. Louisiana appears to

2308
01:55:56,640 --> 01:55:59,280
Speaker 1: have been coded as Democratic at some point, adding an

2309
01:55:59,280 --> 01:56:02,880
Speaker 1: extra seat for them. All other streates would be unaffective.

2310
01:56:03,040 --> 01:56:05,520
Speaker 1: Come on, you guys, have one job on. You can't.

2311
01:56:05,920 --> 01:56:07,640
Speaker 1: You can't. This is why they took away at the

2312
01:56:07,680 --> 01:56:10,840
Speaker 1: needle in the first place. Yeah, that's why we can't

2313
01:56:10,840 --> 01:56:16,160
Speaker 1: have nice thing Spira there, Okay, come on, I've got

2314
01:56:16,280 --> 01:56:19,480
Speaker 1: I've got a few more New Hampshire notes for you.

2315
01:56:20,280 --> 01:56:24,200
Speaker 1: More positive indications for New Hampshire Democrats because it wasn't

2316
01:56:24,240 --> 01:56:25,920
Speaker 1: just the Senate race where they were concerned about. There

2317
01:56:25,920 --> 01:56:29,040
Speaker 1: were a number of congressional races they were also concerned about.

2318
01:56:29,400 --> 01:56:33,880
Speaker 1: And it looks like Democrats at the House level also

2319
01:56:34,040 --> 01:56:38,360
Speaker 1: outperforming Biden in the state of New Hampshire. New Hampshire,

2320
01:56:38,400 --> 01:56:41,960
Speaker 1: so you have Representative Papas remains ahead in Rochester, which

2321
01:56:42,000 --> 01:56:44,280
Speaker 1: Trump carried. This is from Daniel and Shanean with eighty

2322
01:56:44,280 --> 01:56:47,920
Speaker 1: six percent, and you have Representative Custer in Concord with

2323
01:56:48,000 --> 01:56:50,960
Speaker 1: eighty eight percent reporting also running ahead of Biden. So

2324
01:56:51,480 --> 01:56:54,600
Speaker 1: in terms of the House seats there, that's also positive

2325
01:56:54,640 --> 01:56:58,720
Speaker 1: news for them. I was also looking at the sort

2326
01:56:58,720 --> 01:57:03,200
Speaker 1: of ticket splitting dynamic, and you've got a pretty you know,

2327
01:57:03,360 --> 01:57:08,120
Speaker 1: pretty sizable gap both on the Kemp the Kemp Warnock voter,

2328
01:57:08,200 --> 01:57:09,880
Speaker 1: you've got a lot of those. You also have a

2329
01:57:09,920 --> 01:57:14,680
Speaker 1: good number of Shapiro Oz voters as well, already in

2330
01:57:14,760 --> 01:57:17,960
Speaker 1: the early vote. Now again in Pennsylvania it's all mail in,

2331
01:57:18,040 --> 01:57:20,280
Speaker 1: so it's like Shapiro has eighty three percent, Federman has

2332
01:57:20,320 --> 01:57:22,240
Speaker 1: seventy eight percent or something crazy like that, which is

2333
01:57:22,240 --> 01:57:24,120
Speaker 1: obviously not going to be the end result, but it

2334
01:57:24,160 --> 01:57:27,440
Speaker 1: shows you, even in that early mail in vote, that

2335
01:57:27,520 --> 01:57:30,280
Speaker 1: you do have a significant population of ticket splitters who

2336
01:57:30,280 --> 01:57:33,000
Speaker 1: could end up being determinative in these races. Yeah, that's

2337
01:57:33,040 --> 01:57:35,600
Speaker 1: pretty interesting. It is factual vote. I mean they vote

2338
01:57:35,640 --> 01:57:38,080
Speaker 1: based on vibes. Yeah, right, isn't that really what it is?

2339
01:57:38,160 --> 01:57:40,840
Speaker 1: I listened, Kyle, I made peace with that a while ago,

2340
01:57:41,000 --> 01:57:43,520
Speaker 1: and to be honest, I like it. I'm going to

2341
01:57:43,560 --> 01:57:46,800
Speaker 1: be honest, I kind of like it. I like being surprised.

2342
01:57:46,880 --> 01:57:49,080
Speaker 1: I like the fact that people are not as into

2343
01:57:49,120 --> 01:57:51,080
Speaker 1: all of this as everybody, and that the things that

2344
01:57:51,080 --> 01:57:54,600
Speaker 1: people vote on make them idiosyncratic and truly human. So

2345
01:57:54,680 --> 01:57:57,800
Speaker 1: I think that's actually a good story for America. It's

2346
01:57:57,800 --> 01:57:59,880
Speaker 1: a hopeful story. I mean, the I think the we

2347
01:58:00,160 --> 01:58:02,320
Speaker 1: this was a discussion we were talking about earlier about

2348
01:58:02,320 --> 01:58:06,040
Speaker 1: how the electorate fundamentally changed in twenty sixteen. And look,

2349
01:58:06,080 --> 01:58:08,400
Speaker 1: I mean, you can like or dislike how exactly things

2350
01:58:08,440 --> 01:58:10,520
Speaker 1: are trending. But what I like about that, Marshall, is

2351
01:58:10,560 --> 01:58:11,960
Speaker 1: like it just shows that a lot of things are

2352
01:58:12,000 --> 01:58:14,560
Speaker 1: up for grabs in a way that people don't as

2353
01:58:14,600 --> 01:58:17,440
Speaker 1: stuck as we are. To see Florida become a red

2354
01:58:17,480 --> 01:58:20,320
Speaker 1: state in my lifetime, and to see Wisconsin be one

2355
01:58:20,360 --> 01:58:22,360
Speaker 1: of those places which we now have to watch as

2356
01:58:22,400 --> 01:58:25,760
Speaker 1: a bell Weather say, I mean, I remember Ohio as well.

2357
01:58:25,880 --> 01:58:29,880
Speaker 1: Barack Obama won the state of Ohio Florida. Obama won

2358
01:58:30,040 --> 01:58:31,880
Speaker 1: of Florida in two thousand and eight, by three points,

2359
01:58:31,920 --> 01:58:34,000
Speaker 1: and he won it by two points in twenty twelve.

2360
01:58:34,040 --> 01:58:35,960
Speaker 1: Ten years later, we're sitting here at the desk and

2361
01:58:36,000 --> 01:58:38,480
Speaker 1: we're like re marveling at a fifteen point win for

2362
01:58:38,640 --> 01:58:41,520
Speaker 1: a Republican candidate. So it just shows me like, actually,

2363
01:58:41,560 --> 01:58:44,000
Speaker 1: nothing is static. Everything can change, and you know, it

2364
01:58:44,080 --> 01:58:45,840
Speaker 1: may not change necessarily the way that all of us

2365
01:58:45,920 --> 01:58:48,280
Speaker 1: necessarily want, but they can't change, and they can change

2366
01:58:48,320 --> 01:58:51,800
Speaker 1: significantly in a relatively short period of time. Yeah, I'm

2367
01:58:51,800 --> 01:58:54,960
Speaker 1: not sure it's so interesting because your point is like

2368
01:58:55,000 --> 01:58:57,400
Speaker 1: the fact that things can change could be a good thing.

2369
01:58:57,440 --> 01:59:01,320
Speaker 1: But like I kind of said earlier, I I want

2370
01:59:01,360 --> 01:59:03,520
Speaker 1: some I want I want someone to win a state

2371
01:59:03,560 --> 01:59:06,000
Speaker 1: they weren't expected to win and then actually be able

2372
01:59:06,040 --> 01:59:11,880
Speaker 1: to have a governing agenda. Basically the pendulum swinging back

2373
01:59:11,920 --> 01:59:14,880
Speaker 1: and forth for thirty years because everyone's just pissed off.

2374
01:59:15,200 --> 01:59:21,600
Speaker 1: That isn't that doesn't feel great. This is the you know,

2375
01:59:22,600 --> 01:59:25,200
Speaker 1: this another debate Kyle and I've had like eighty three times,

2376
01:59:25,200 --> 01:59:31,160
Speaker 1: both publicly and privately, But clearly, the neoliberal consensus is dying,

2377
01:59:31,320 --> 01:59:33,720
Speaker 1: at least among the public. It's dead, even as they

2378
01:59:33,880 --> 01:59:35,880
Speaker 1: you know, hold on to like Joe Biden as president.

2379
01:59:36,000 --> 01:59:39,120
Speaker 1: Clearly they still hold on to power. But what you

2380
01:59:39,160 --> 01:59:42,640
Speaker 1: see in these swing elections is just a rejection of

2381
01:59:42,680 --> 01:59:45,480
Speaker 1: this paradigm, whether it's being offered by Democrats or being

2382
01:59:45,480 --> 01:59:48,360
Speaker 1: offered by Republicans. It's like, ah, to help with to

2383
01:59:48,400 --> 01:59:50,600
Speaker 1: hell with this, We're going to try something different. And

2384
01:59:50,680 --> 01:59:55,080
Speaker 1: so I think until you have whatever the new paradigm,

2385
01:59:55,360 --> 01:59:59,480
Speaker 1: whatever the new era is actually born and like power consolidated,

2386
01:59:59,800 --> 02:00:03,040
Speaker 1: you're going to continue having these swings. Although I mean, listen,

2387
02:00:03,120 --> 02:00:05,840
Speaker 1: we have to say, like if Democrats outperform tonight in

2388
02:00:05,920 --> 02:00:08,840
Speaker 1: the way that might be happening, if New Hampshire is

2389
02:00:08,880 --> 02:00:11,040
Speaker 1: in any indication of the rest of the country, which

2390
02:00:11,120 --> 02:00:13,240
Speaker 1: is a big if and caveats, et cetera, et cetera.

2391
02:00:14,200 --> 02:00:17,920
Speaker 1: We can't deny normally the party in power in modern history,

2392
02:00:18,120 --> 02:00:21,520
Speaker 1: they get shellacked in the midterms, and I think it

2393
02:00:21,600 --> 02:00:26,920
Speaker 1: is a remarkable indictment of the Republican Party that they

2394
02:00:26,960 --> 02:00:31,320
Speaker 1: managed to look like this should not be in question.

2395
02:00:31,680 --> 02:00:35,040
Speaker 1: You have seventy percent of the country saying the country

2396
02:00:35,080 --> 02:00:38,360
Speaker 1: is on the wrong track. You have inflation at very

2397
02:00:38,400 --> 02:00:41,800
Speaker 1: high levels, you have concerns about inflation and concerns about

2398
02:00:41,800 --> 02:00:44,480
Speaker 1: the economy at very high levels. You have a majority

2399
02:00:44,480 --> 02:00:47,400
Speaker 1: of Americans saying that gas prices are hurting them financially.

2400
02:00:47,600 --> 02:00:49,840
Speaker 1: Right now as we speak, it's like sixty some percent

2401
02:00:49,920 --> 02:00:53,000
Speaker 1: saying this is hurting me. Right now, you have a

2402
02:00:53,040 --> 02:00:55,880
Speaker 1: president whose approval rating is quite low. It's in like

2403
02:00:55,920 --> 02:00:59,520
Speaker 1: the low forties right now. You look at those numbers,

2404
02:00:59,680 --> 02:01:02,720
Speaker 1: this come should not be in doubt. And so when

2405
02:01:02,800 --> 02:01:05,160
Speaker 1: I look at that, it's not. Listen, I'm gonna have

2406
02:01:05,160 --> 02:01:07,160
Speaker 1: to give some credits to Democrats and their strategy was

2407
02:01:07,200 --> 02:01:08,880
Speaker 1: better than I thought if this ends up being good

2408
02:01:08,880 --> 02:01:11,480
Speaker 1: for them, But I really think it is a thorough

2409
02:01:11,640 --> 02:01:15,960
Speaker 1: indictment of the direction of the Republican Party, which you know,

2410
02:01:16,120 --> 02:01:18,560
Speaker 1: really motivated people to turn out to the ballot box

2411
02:01:18,600 --> 02:01:20,280
Speaker 1: in a way that they normally don't in the midterm

2412
02:01:20,320 --> 02:01:23,120
Speaker 1: election to protect the party in power. Is it is

2413
02:01:23,160 --> 02:01:25,680
Speaker 1: actually fascinating to see demon go ahead, Yeah, I want to.

2414
02:01:25,720 --> 02:01:27,840
Speaker 1: I want to switch policy for a secon because you've

2415
02:01:27,840 --> 02:01:30,080
Speaker 1: talked about these previous like midterm elections, right, so we

2416
02:01:30,160 --> 02:01:34,080
Speaker 1: referenced the nineteen nineties, Bill Clinton gets like the first

2417
02:01:34,120 --> 02:01:37,320
Speaker 1: big modern shellacking, and then two years later the era

2418
02:01:37,400 --> 02:01:39,760
Speaker 1: of big government is over. Right, there's this big correction

2419
02:01:40,360 --> 02:01:44,520
Speaker 1: twenty ten, another shellacking. Obama's ambition just goes away and

2420
02:01:44,560 --> 02:01:47,360
Speaker 1: the presidency goes into defense. That helps you win re election,

2421
02:01:47,480 --> 02:01:49,520
Speaker 1: but you know, the hope and change room is over.

2422
02:01:49,840 --> 02:01:52,400
Speaker 1: What do you guys see as like the not what

2423
02:01:52,440 --> 02:01:55,000
Speaker 1: you want? Right? But what takeaway do you think the

2424
02:01:55,000 --> 02:01:57,200
Speaker 1: Biden people are going to take from? Let's say this

2425
02:01:57,280 --> 02:02:00,560
Speaker 1: like moderate tsunami we're talking. Yeah, so culture first, First

2426
02:02:00,560 --> 02:02:03,840
Speaker 1: of all, I love that question because I was transitioning

2427
02:02:03,920 --> 02:02:05,720
Speaker 1: right into the thing I wanted to bring up, which was,

2428
02:02:06,280 --> 02:02:08,960
Speaker 1: you know, let's say the dynamic we're talking about now

2429
02:02:09,040 --> 02:02:10,960
Speaker 1: holds the rest of the night and the Democrats do

2430
02:02:11,080 --> 02:02:14,000
Speaker 1: better than expected. I mean, I really think it just

2431
02:02:14,480 --> 02:02:19,160
Speaker 1: it proves that if you materially deliver for the American

2432
02:02:19,200 --> 02:02:21,440
Speaker 1: people to any degree, even if it's just a little bit,

2433
02:02:21,760 --> 02:02:24,760
Speaker 1: they're like, oh thank god, okay, I'll reward you. So

2434
02:02:24,960 --> 02:02:26,400
Speaker 1: let me make the case real quick. And I know

2435
02:02:26,440 --> 02:02:29,440
Speaker 1: this is an unpopular case. I agree that on politics

2436
02:02:29,520 --> 02:02:32,160
Speaker 1: Biden is a zombies half dead not good, but on

2437
02:02:32,200 --> 02:02:34,880
Speaker 1: policy he's way better than I thought he would be.

2438
02:02:35,280 --> 02:02:39,880
Speaker 1: My I mean, I had nonexistent hopes when Biden's approval

2439
02:02:39,920 --> 02:02:42,080
Speaker 1: rating was thirty three percent and he was doing nothing.

2440
02:02:42,360 --> 02:02:43,840
Speaker 1: I was like, this is what it's going to be

2441
02:02:43,880 --> 02:02:45,360
Speaker 1: like the rest of his time in office, and I'm

2442
02:02:45,360 --> 02:02:48,360
Speaker 1: going crazy over here. Then what do we get? Biden

2443
02:02:48,440 --> 02:02:52,160
Speaker 1: comes out and pardons we defenders. He pulls the troops

2444
02:02:52,160 --> 02:02:55,480
Speaker 1: out of Afghanistan. He does an executive order that raised

2445
02:02:55,480 --> 02:02:57,680
Speaker 1: the federal minimum wage to fifteen dollars an hour, which

2446
02:02:57,720 --> 02:03:00,480
Speaker 1: impacts three hundred thousand workers who are federal contractors and

2447
02:03:00,520 --> 02:03:03,480
Speaker 1: federal employees. He has a pro union n LRB, which

2448
02:03:03,480 --> 02:03:06,000
Speaker 1: has allowed this wave of unionization now to sweep the country.

2449
02:03:06,280 --> 02:03:10,800
Speaker 1: He's appointed anti monopolist Lena Khan to the FTC. She's

2450
02:03:11,000 --> 02:03:13,800
Speaker 1: currently blocking mergers. He does the Chips Act, which on

2451
02:03:13,960 --> 02:03:16,360
Speaker 1: shore is three hundred and fifty thousand jobs. He does

2452
02:03:16,400 --> 02:03:19,120
Speaker 1: the Pack Deck, which is healthcare for veterans exposed to

2453
02:03:19,120 --> 02:03:22,480
Speaker 1: toxic burn pits. He does gun reform, bipartisan gun reform,

2454
02:03:22,520 --> 02:03:26,360
Speaker 1: which includes money for red flag laws, money for school security,

2455
02:03:26,400 --> 02:03:29,440
Speaker 1: money for mental health treatment. He killed zawaharive Haad of

2456
02:03:29,440 --> 02:03:32,440
Speaker 1: al Qaeda. We know inflation is a big problem, but

2457
02:03:32,480 --> 02:03:35,000
Speaker 1: also at the same time, we do currently have low unemployment.

2458
02:03:35,160 --> 02:03:38,000
Speaker 1: Kataji Brown Jackson is on the Supreme Court. And then

2459
02:03:38,000 --> 02:03:42,320
Speaker 1: probably most importantly, you have the IRA, which lowered prescription

2460
02:03:42,440 --> 02:03:45,960
Speaker 1: drug costs for seniors. It has made an America provision

2461
02:03:46,000 --> 02:03:49,200
Speaker 1: for clean energy technology. There's a fifteen percent called Riminimum

2462
02:03:49,320 --> 02:03:52,120
Speaker 1: tax rate, a one percent tax on stock buybacks. Obamacare

2463
02:03:52,160 --> 02:03:55,960
Speaker 1: expansion now covers three million more people. And I mean, look,

2464
02:03:56,000 --> 02:03:58,240
Speaker 1: I only gave you like maybe half the list here.

2465
02:03:58,280 --> 02:03:59,720
Speaker 1: I can go on. But the fact of the matter is,

2466
02:04:00,280 --> 02:04:02,520
Speaker 1: I do think that people, when they get materially helped,

2467
02:04:02,840 --> 02:04:05,960
Speaker 1: they go, Okay, good, Now that's all I want from you.

2468
02:04:06,000 --> 02:04:07,560
Speaker 1: So now I will reward you. I will go vote

2469
02:04:07,600 --> 02:04:09,480
Speaker 1: for your party. Joe Biden should hire you, Kyle. It's

2470
02:04:09,480 --> 02:04:12,120
Speaker 1: one of the most eloquent defenses I heard of his presidency.

2471
02:04:12,200 --> 02:04:16,720
Speaker 1: Yet look, bros, there's another. There's another, There's another. There's

2472
02:04:16,760 --> 02:04:18,960
Speaker 1: another interesting takeaway here that I want people because I

2473
02:04:18,960 --> 02:04:21,720
Speaker 1: always I always get really annoyed when people talk about, oh,

2474
02:04:21,800 --> 02:04:23,720
Speaker 1: like the problem her politics is there's just like a

2475
02:04:23,720 --> 02:04:27,800
Speaker 1: bunch of older people, and you know, we need your incumbents.

2476
02:04:27,840 --> 02:04:32,320
Speaker 1: And this Joe Biden on paper should not have done anything.

2477
02:04:32,360 --> 02:04:35,320
Speaker 1: You just articulate. You would look at Barack Obama like

2478
02:04:35,480 --> 02:04:38,400
Speaker 1: he's I don't think I wrote things either, right, So

2479
02:04:38,440 --> 02:04:40,720
Speaker 1: I and you know, if you talk to I get

2480
02:04:40,720 --> 02:04:42,720
Speaker 1: really like red pill and people say, like, man, if

2481
02:04:42,720 --> 02:04:45,120
Speaker 1: we saw a bunch of Yoka guys like what was

2482
02:04:45,120 --> 02:04:47,200
Speaker 1: his name? The guy from with Carolina who lost to

2483
02:04:47,320 --> 02:04:52,240
Speaker 1: Madison cold. So I think I think they are like

2484
02:04:53,280 --> 02:04:55,640
Speaker 1: just what I always thinking of, Like, God fucking forbid,

2485
02:04:55,760 --> 02:04:57,240
Speaker 1: there's just something hopeful, I think. I think I think

2486
02:04:57,240 --> 02:04:59,160
Speaker 1: that's the thing which is hopeful there, which is that

2487
02:04:59,680 --> 02:05:03,360
Speaker 1: end of visuals matter more than you kind of would think.

2488
02:05:03,000 --> 02:05:05,400
Speaker 1: And I think there's something. I think there's something there.

2489
02:05:05,960 --> 02:05:08,840
Speaker 1: I don't know what I think on this question. But

2490
02:05:08,960 --> 02:05:13,920
Speaker 1: the other theory would be actually that it doesn't have

2491
02:05:13,960 --> 02:05:16,240
Speaker 1: so much to do with Biden as it does with

2492
02:05:16,480 --> 02:05:19,640
Speaker 1: the sort of like shifting of the era, because if

2493
02:05:19,640 --> 02:05:21,880
Speaker 1: you look at Joe Biden over the course of his career,

2494
02:05:22,160 --> 02:05:24,960
Speaker 1: you would not think this would be his presidents, right.

2495
02:05:25,000 --> 02:05:27,200
Speaker 1: I mean, he goes with the winds. That is, that

2496
02:05:27,280 --> 02:05:29,400
Speaker 1: is what he has always done, is he centered himself

2497
02:05:29,440 --> 02:05:31,160
Speaker 1: in the middle of the Democratic Party, tried to center

2498
02:05:31,240 --> 02:05:33,240
Speaker 1: himself in the middle of the electorate, and then done

2499
02:05:33,320 --> 02:05:36,640
Speaker 1: the thing that he thinks that you know that entails

2500
02:05:37,000 --> 02:05:40,800
Speaker 1: with a like basket of cliches and euphemisms or whatever

2501
02:05:40,880 --> 02:05:43,360
Speaker 1: from his family lore that he uses as his kind

2502
02:05:43,360 --> 02:05:47,240
Speaker 1: of guideposts. So to me, it's more a sign of

2503
02:05:47,280 --> 02:05:52,720
Speaker 1: the times that he's had a he has in certain things,

2504
02:05:53,240 --> 02:05:59,120
Speaker 1: he has consequentially shifted the direction of the country and

2505
02:06:00,240 --> 02:06:03,360
Speaker 1: in particular, I mean the NLRB and the anti trade stuff,

2506
02:06:03,440 --> 02:06:06,680
Speaker 1: I mean not anti trade, the anti trust stuff in particular,

2507
02:06:06,840 --> 02:06:09,840
Speaker 1: and and has a trade policy that is not unlike

2508
02:06:09,880 --> 02:06:12,880
Speaker 1: Trump's trade policy, to be perfectly honest with you, So

2509
02:06:14,400 --> 02:06:16,920
Speaker 1: you know, to me, there's a question or okay, is

2510
02:06:16,920 --> 02:06:19,520
Speaker 1: that Biden and he actually connects to an older ares

2511
02:06:19,560 --> 02:06:21,280
Speaker 1: more of the New Deal areas bringing some of that

2512
02:06:21,320 --> 02:06:23,280
Speaker 1: into his presidency and sort of like digging it up

2513
02:06:23,320 --> 02:06:25,080
Speaker 1: in the depths and his experience in his age is

2514
02:06:25,080 --> 02:06:28,760
Speaker 1: actually a benefit. Or is it that he is reflecting

2515
02:06:29,280 --> 02:06:33,040
Speaker 1: that we're in a different moment in America and that's

2516
02:06:33,080 --> 02:06:36,960
Speaker 1: where some of these policy shifts ultimately come from. I honestly,

2517
02:06:37,000 --> 02:06:38,800
Speaker 1: I'm sort of like on the fence about which one

2518
02:06:38,800 --> 02:06:40,320
Speaker 1: of those things are. But I think it could be.

2519
02:06:40,440 --> 02:06:42,680
Speaker 1: I think it could ultimately be either one. Let me

2520
02:06:42,720 --> 02:06:46,640
Speaker 1: say what they want. They won't learn the things that

2521
02:06:46,720 --> 02:06:50,240
Speaker 1: you just said, though even If that's true, what they're

2522
02:06:50,320 --> 02:06:56,320
Speaker 1: going to think is abortion in January sixth, that you know,

2523
02:06:56,400 --> 02:06:59,440
Speaker 1: I mean they're closing. Let me just their closing pitch

2524
02:06:59,680 --> 02:07:02,200
Speaker 1: was the top of the bit. Their closing pitch was

2525
02:07:02,440 --> 02:07:06,400
Speaker 1: democracies on the ballot January sixth election deniers. And you

2526
02:07:06,400 --> 02:07:09,520
Speaker 1: know what, they're not wrong because when you do look

2527
02:07:09,560 --> 02:07:12,440
Speaker 1: at these races, like part of why Maggie Hassen appears

2528
02:07:12,480 --> 02:07:14,760
Speaker 1: to be cleaning up here is because Don Bulldock is

2529
02:07:14,760 --> 02:07:17,680
Speaker 1: this like psycho election denier. Right. Part of the reason

2530
02:07:17,800 --> 02:07:22,040
Speaker 1: why you have Democrats, the base of the Democratic Party

2531
02:07:22,120 --> 02:07:25,600
Speaker 1: so energized to go out and vote and protect democratic

2532
02:07:25,800 --> 02:07:29,400
Speaker 1: power is because they truly do fear that there is

2533
02:07:29,480 --> 02:07:33,720
Speaker 1: like a democracy ending potential event if they don't go

2534
02:07:33,880 --> 02:07:37,200
Speaker 1: and do that. And that's why you do have these

2535
02:07:37,240 --> 02:07:40,840
Speaker 1: midterm elections with much higher enthusiasm for the party in

2536
02:07:40,920 --> 02:07:44,680
Speaker 1: power than you normally do. So, you know, I don't

2537
02:07:44,680 --> 02:07:47,640
Speaker 1: think that they're wrong to look at some of how

2538
02:07:47,680 --> 02:07:49,880
Speaker 1: they went all in on January's all, when all in

2539
02:07:49,920 --> 02:07:53,880
Speaker 1: on extremism closed with democracy on the ballot, given that

2540
02:07:54,160 --> 02:07:58,560
Speaker 1: Republicans were elevating so many election deniers. So, I mean,

2541
02:07:58,760 --> 02:08:01,080
Speaker 1: I mostly agree with what you said, the only counterpoint

2542
02:08:01,120 --> 02:08:03,920
Speaker 1: I would make is if, for example, we get the

2543
02:08:03,960 --> 02:08:05,680
Speaker 1: numbers on this election and we see that there was

2544
02:08:05,720 --> 02:08:08,360
Speaker 1: a giant surge in young people showing up to vote. Yeah,

2545
02:08:08,360 --> 02:08:09,680
Speaker 1: and I would say, you know what, maybe this has

2546
02:08:09,720 --> 02:08:11,040
Speaker 1: something to do with the student loan debt reduction, and

2547
02:08:11,080 --> 02:08:12,440
Speaker 1: maybe it just has to do with like weed pardons

2548
02:08:12,480 --> 02:08:15,120
Speaker 1: for example. So that's substantive. And then the second point is,

2549
02:08:15,440 --> 02:08:17,840
Speaker 1: even if I grant you the point you made, I

2550
02:08:17,960 --> 02:08:20,800
Speaker 1: do think that, you know, running on the abortion stuff,

2551
02:08:20,800 --> 02:08:22,080
Speaker 1: even tho I don't think it should be the whole

2552
02:08:22,120 --> 02:08:24,840
Speaker 1: picture of what they ran on, it is substantive because

2553
02:08:24,880 --> 02:08:27,720
Speaker 1: it's fundamentally an argument for No, we want to be

2554
02:08:27,760 --> 02:08:31,080
Speaker 1: the freedom people. If we're if we're now descheduling weed,

2555
02:08:31,160 --> 02:08:33,760
Speaker 1: that means we want to increase your social freedoms. We're

2556
02:08:33,800 --> 02:08:36,240
Speaker 1: the pro choice party, we want to increase your social freedoms.

2557
02:08:36,440 --> 02:08:38,880
Speaker 1: You know. And again, this is an argument I'd love

2558
02:08:38,920 --> 02:08:42,880
Speaker 1: to see them embrace wholeheartedly. Because my politics, you can

2559
02:08:42,920 --> 02:08:46,720
Speaker 1: boil it down to, I believe in economic patriotism and

2560
02:08:47,800 --> 02:08:50,560
Speaker 1: freedom on the social front, social freedom, and so I

2561
02:08:50,600 --> 02:08:54,120
Speaker 1: think those two things together are I mean, are winner

2562
02:08:54,160 --> 02:08:56,400
Speaker 1: could be an interesting thing Okay, so it is nine

2563
02:08:56,440 --> 02:08:59,600
Speaker 1: pm or it's nine point nine specifically, so that we

2564
02:09:00,040 --> 02:09:03,840
Speaker 1: off everything that has now closed. Arizona nine pm Eastern

2565
02:09:03,840 --> 02:09:06,120
Speaker 1: Standard time are officially closed. It's about to get fun

2566
02:09:06,200 --> 02:09:13,560
Speaker 1: here people. Colorado officially closed, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska,

2567
02:09:13,840 --> 02:09:16,720
Speaker 1: New Mexico, New York, which, by the way, we have

2568
02:09:16,760 --> 02:09:19,760
Speaker 1: to watch because that was also predicted as possibly closer

2569
02:09:19,760 --> 02:09:22,400
Speaker 1: than people thought, especially with Leez Elden and Kathy Hochel,

2570
02:09:22,600 --> 02:09:27,920
Speaker 1: North Dakota, South Dakota, Texas, Wisconsin, and Wyoming. So Georgia,

2571
02:09:28,120 --> 02:09:29,840
Speaker 1: New York isn't going to count their votes, I like,

2572
02:09:29,880 --> 02:09:35,480
Speaker 1: didn't like two months. They'll don't hold your breath host

2573
02:09:35,560 --> 02:09:39,680
Speaker 1: Inauguration day. They will eventually inform US election. Fifty eight

2574
02:09:39,720 --> 02:09:42,160
Speaker 1: percent of the vote now currently and in Georgia, so

2575
02:09:42,480 --> 02:09:46,040
Speaker 1: Warnock currently at fifty one percent, Herschel Walker at forty seven.

2576
02:09:46,120 --> 02:09:48,440
Speaker 1: But there was a big dump from a major Democratic

2577
02:09:48,440 --> 02:09:50,600
Speaker 1: area there. In terms of the other ones that we

2578
02:09:50,640 --> 02:09:53,680
Speaker 1: should pay attention to, Pennsylvania, John Fetterman soon up there,

2579
02:09:53,680 --> 02:09:56,160
Speaker 1: but only thirteen percent of the vote. New Hampshire holding

2580
02:09:56,200 --> 02:10:00,320
Speaker 1: steady at sixteen. Ohio is at forty one things much

2581
02:10:00,320 --> 02:10:02,920
Speaker 1: tighter now. It's at fifty one and forty nine for

2582
02:10:03,000 --> 02:10:07,680
Speaker 1: jam very VERYA. That's true, but there is an interesting

2583
02:10:07,760 --> 02:10:12,640
Speaker 1: again ticket splitting dynamic in Ohio. A third of the

2584
02:10:12,720 --> 02:10:16,240
Speaker 1: Ohio voted huge gap of more than twenty percentage points

2585
02:10:16,280 --> 02:10:18,200
Speaker 1: between the march and the Governor's race and the marchin

2586
02:10:18,240 --> 02:10:20,080
Speaker 1: in the center race. So you have a lot of

2587
02:10:20,120 --> 02:10:23,600
Speaker 1: people who are voting for Dwine the Republic, he's already

2588
02:10:23,600 --> 02:10:27,240
Speaker 1: been declared victory of victorious in Ohio for the governor's race,

2589
02:10:27,560 --> 02:10:29,720
Speaker 1: and then are voting for Tim Ryan. Let's talk about

2590
02:10:29,760 --> 02:10:32,880
Speaker 1: Tim We have Tim Rynan at all. Tim Ryan thoughts, Oh,

2591
02:10:32,920 --> 02:10:34,760
Speaker 1: I think he ran a phenomenal campaign, and I'm not

2592
02:10:34,800 --> 02:10:36,360
Speaker 1: I'm really not a big fan of Tim Ryan. I

2593
02:10:36,360 --> 02:10:38,960
Speaker 1: mean I remember back during the when he ran for President.

2594
02:10:39,360 --> 02:10:44,560
Speaker 1: Tim Ryan, Yeah, meditation. He was like us went after Bernie.

2595
02:10:44,960 --> 02:10:47,920
Speaker 1: It was like, we don't have to yell at shirts

2596
02:10:47,920 --> 02:10:51,400
Speaker 1: that said stop yelling or whatever. We don't have to

2597
02:10:51,480 --> 02:10:55,960
Speaker 1: yell at ye. He's signed on to the list on

2598
02:10:56,000 --> 02:10:58,400
Speaker 1: the Medicare for All Caucus. So he endorsed support for

2599
02:10:58,440 --> 02:10:59,880
Speaker 1: the Medicare for All bill in the House, and then

2600
02:11:00,080 --> 02:11:01,920
Speaker 1: he was interviewed later on and asked to U sport

2601
02:11:01,960 --> 02:11:04,240
Speaker 1: Medicare for all. He was like, no, I hate that policy,

2602
02:11:04,360 --> 02:11:06,720
Speaker 1: and so I have big, big issues with Tim Ryan.

2603
02:11:06,920 --> 02:11:09,520
Speaker 1: But in terms of politics, I think he's run a

2604
02:11:09,560 --> 02:11:12,600
Speaker 1: phenomenal campaign. I think he's been really aggressive, which is

2605
02:11:12,640 --> 02:11:14,800
Speaker 1: something that we don't often see from Democrats. I think

2606
02:11:14,800 --> 02:11:18,520
Speaker 1: he's kind of correctly portrayed jd Vance as an extremist

2607
02:11:18,600 --> 02:11:20,600
Speaker 1: and a Trump asked Kisser quite literally, I think he

2608
02:11:20,600 --> 02:11:23,800
Speaker 1: said those words on stage. Trump said that about jade

2609
02:11:23,840 --> 02:11:27,720
Speaker 1: Van and then yes, hey, remember when he said that thing. Ye,

2610
02:11:28,120 --> 02:11:30,640
Speaker 1: So yeah, I just thought he ran a good campaign. Yeah, Well,

2611
02:11:30,800 --> 02:11:32,680
Speaker 1: I don't know. And that is the question is, like,

2612
02:11:32,920 --> 02:11:35,840
Speaker 1: I mean, clearly Tim right did some things right because

2613
02:11:35,840 --> 02:11:38,680
Speaker 1: he's outperforming the other dude. Yeah. I don't even know

2614
02:11:38,720 --> 02:11:40,160
Speaker 1: who it was running for the I think it is

2615
02:11:40,200 --> 02:11:42,120
Speaker 1: a woman running for governor for the Nan Whaley is

2616
02:11:42,120 --> 02:11:47,200
Speaker 1: that whould be lckamist, gender and whatever canceled anyway, So

2617
02:11:47,240 --> 02:11:49,680
Speaker 1: he did definitely did some things right to be outperforming

2618
02:11:49,720 --> 02:11:52,720
Speaker 1: the other Democrat that he's sharing a ticket with statewide.

2619
02:11:52,760 --> 02:11:54,400
Speaker 1: And then the question is how much of it is

2620
02:11:54,440 --> 02:11:56,800
Speaker 1: like what did Tim Ryan to write and how much

2621
02:11:56,840 --> 02:11:59,320
Speaker 1: of it is what did JD vance do wrong? Right?

2622
02:11:59,520 --> 02:12:02,680
Speaker 1: What is it that voters didn't like about him his platform?

2623
02:12:02,760 --> 02:12:04,720
Speaker 1: Do they view him as extreme? Did they view him

2624
02:12:04,720 --> 02:12:07,160
Speaker 1: as untattouched? Did they view him as like Yeah, I

2625
02:12:07,160 --> 02:12:09,960
Speaker 1: mean it is It does have this sort of gross

2626
02:12:09,960 --> 02:12:11,720
Speaker 1: feel that you were the guy that was like the

2627
02:12:11,800 --> 02:12:14,240
Speaker 1: principled critic of Trump and then all of a sudden

2628
02:12:14,240 --> 02:12:16,160
Speaker 1: you're like, oh, I love you and please endorse me

2629
02:12:16,240 --> 02:12:19,280
Speaker 1: and basically owes his totally owes his victory in the

2630
02:12:19,280 --> 02:12:23,520
Speaker 1: Republican primary to securing the Trump endorsement. So, you know,

2631
02:12:23,600 --> 02:12:25,440
Speaker 1: I don't know the answer to that question, but it

2632
02:12:25,520 --> 02:12:27,720
Speaker 1: certainly has to be like a little bit of both there. Well,

2633
02:12:27,720 --> 02:12:29,400
Speaker 1: Tad to your point, Christ it kind of gets into

2634
02:12:29,480 --> 02:12:34,280
Speaker 1: the weird dynamic. It seems like Tim Ryan because of

2635
02:12:34,320 --> 02:12:35,960
Speaker 1: the way like JD's had to kind of like shift

2636
02:12:36,000 --> 02:12:37,920
Speaker 1: his position around Tim Ryan kind of rank. And you

2637
02:12:37,960 --> 02:12:41,280
Speaker 1: almost would think that the JD's the incumbent right now,

2638
02:12:41,560 --> 02:12:44,280
Speaker 1: right that's how like aggressive at Tim Bran's being like

2639
02:12:44,760 --> 02:12:46,880
Speaker 1: And I think there's probably like there's probably a lesson

2640
02:12:46,880 --> 02:12:49,120
Speaker 1: there when this is I think your point on aggression

2641
02:12:49,960 --> 02:12:52,200
Speaker 1: and how like that wo make it. It might help though,

2642
02:12:52,240 --> 02:12:55,280
Speaker 1: because because Ohio is such a red state you should

2643
02:12:55,320 --> 02:12:57,320
Speaker 1: treat it as incumbents see. So it makes it like

2644
02:12:57,680 --> 02:13:00,720
Speaker 1: a little bit more up there. So some interesting call

2645
02:13:00,760 --> 02:13:05,400
Speaker 1: out Sarah Huckabee Sanders, press secretary officially Arkansas's governor. I

2646
02:13:05,440 --> 02:13:10,360
Speaker 1: told Chuck Schumer has now won his fifth term to

2647
02:13:10,400 --> 02:13:13,920
Speaker 1: become the New York longest Senator in the history of

2648
02:13:14,040 --> 02:13:16,920
Speaker 1: the state of New York. He's only he's a young man,

2649
02:13:16,960 --> 02:13:19,000
Speaker 1: he's only seventy three. So I predict that is not

2650
02:13:19,080 --> 02:13:21,480
Speaker 1: the last election that we will see him. By the

2651
02:13:21,480 --> 02:13:24,360
Speaker 1: way he's taken. In the Democratic North Carolina. What we

2652
02:13:24,360 --> 02:13:26,320
Speaker 1: were all taking a look at, Ted budd has actually

2653
02:13:26,320 --> 02:13:28,360
Speaker 1: now gone ahead and pulled ahead in the race there.

2654
02:13:28,360 --> 02:13:31,120
Speaker 1: It's still closed, so it's fifty and fifty nine. Again

2655
02:13:31,200 --> 02:13:33,080
Speaker 1: we all fell for the Blue mirage. It's a joke.

2656
02:13:33,320 --> 02:13:35,280
Speaker 1: Sixty eight percent of the vote coming in there now

2657
02:13:35,280 --> 02:13:37,640
Speaker 1: and things starting to trend a little bit more in

2658
02:13:37,680 --> 02:13:41,320
Speaker 1: that direction. Georgia, I'm keeping an eye on it. At

2659
02:13:41,360 --> 02:13:43,720
Speaker 1: no surprise. It gives me great pleasure to say all this.

2660
02:13:44,120 --> 02:13:47,160
Speaker 1: Immediately after the polls closed, Fox News went ahead and

2661
02:13:47,240 --> 02:13:50,600
Speaker 1: called the race for Greg Abbott over Beto Rourke. Is

2662
02:13:51,160 --> 02:13:55,000
Speaker 1: it's amazing to consider him four years later. Right, twenty

2663
02:13:55,040 --> 02:13:58,520
Speaker 1: eighteen was his big moment. He raised more money than God.

2664
02:13:58,600 --> 02:14:01,360
Speaker 1: I remember rocking around Marshall this when we were living

2665
02:14:01,480 --> 02:14:04,680
Speaker 1: in Adams Morgan, and I remember seeing Beto stickers everywhere.

2666
02:14:04,800 --> 02:14:07,600
Speaker 1: He was raising so much money. Anytime I visited Texas

2667
02:14:07,640 --> 02:14:09,640
Speaker 1: at that time, if you landed in Austin, you'd see

2668
02:14:09,640 --> 02:14:12,760
Speaker 1: Beto T shirts. He was irrelevant in the year twenty

2669
02:14:12,800 --> 02:14:16,040
Speaker 1: twenty two. And it's a real fall from grace for him,

2670
02:14:16,120 --> 02:14:19,080
Speaker 1: for Stacy Abrams as well, like many of the twenty

2671
02:14:19,120 --> 02:14:22,839
Speaker 1: eighteen stars did not pan out at all, built huge

2672
02:14:22,920 --> 02:14:27,280
Speaker 1: campaigns and fundraising dollars on the backs of that, and look,

2673
02:14:27,360 --> 02:14:30,000
Speaker 1: I mean it's it's a huge failure for the quote

2674
02:14:30,040 --> 02:14:33,280
Speaker 1: unquote like the stars of twenty eighteen who didn't actually

2675
02:14:33,320 --> 02:14:35,960
Speaker 1: win was a couple. Yeah, it's kind of it's funny,

2676
02:14:36,520 --> 02:14:38,720
Speaker 1: Like I live in Austin now obviously, so like I've

2677
02:14:38,760 --> 02:14:41,600
Speaker 1: been thinking, there's a very little like Beto energy, and

2678
02:14:41,640 --> 02:14:44,280
Speaker 1: he was so much there's this very little like Beto energy,

2679
02:14:44,400 --> 02:14:46,720
Speaker 1: like very I mean, there are signs, but Stephie doesn't

2680
02:14:46,720 --> 02:14:49,120
Speaker 1: feel like the environment. But two there's a there's a

2681
02:14:49,120 --> 02:14:51,880
Speaker 1: broad left and I think Beto was worse on this

2682
02:14:51,920 --> 02:14:56,200
Speaker 1: than Stacy Abrams. Was the transition he made from I'm

2683
02:14:56,200 --> 02:15:00,120
Speaker 1: a Texas guy to running nationally. There was no no

2684
02:15:00,280 --> 02:15:03,640
Speaker 1: reason for him to say I'm coming for your ars

2685
02:15:03,680 --> 02:15:06,680
Speaker 1: exactly right, and I'm talking about that. We're not talking policy,

2686
02:15:07,080 --> 02:15:11,000
Speaker 1: that literal phrasing, pointing to the camera and saying I'm

2687
02:15:11,000 --> 02:15:13,120
Speaker 1: doing it. Okay, it's over. So if you're going to

2688
02:15:13,160 --> 02:15:15,640
Speaker 1: be successful, hey, it's the second interviews has got people

2689
02:15:15,800 --> 02:15:19,400
Speaker 1: we don't like Ted Cruz, so candidate choice really matters.

2690
02:15:19,400 --> 02:15:21,840
Speaker 1: But just this, this is we're debating, like how much

2691
02:15:21,880 --> 02:15:24,320
Speaker 1: of this is local and national? This shows that there

2692
02:15:24,360 --> 02:15:28,800
Speaker 1: are cases where you can be a Texas Democrat, you

2693
02:15:28,880 --> 02:15:32,720
Speaker 1: can be a Georgia Democrat, but you have to can't

2694
02:15:32,760 --> 02:15:35,080
Speaker 1: be thinking of the programtic one you just got picked.

2695
02:15:35,240 --> 02:15:37,800
Speaker 1: The other thing is I think people really got the

2696
02:15:37,880 --> 02:15:40,800
Speaker 1: sense he was so forced on us by the media.

2697
02:15:41,240 --> 02:15:44,720
Speaker 1: Remember when he was on all like those magnanity I'm

2698
02:15:44,720 --> 02:15:47,120
Speaker 1: just born to be in standing on every table he

2699
02:15:47,160 --> 02:15:50,960
Speaker 1: could stand on for no reason, that Oprah, And then

2700
02:15:50,960 --> 02:15:54,160
Speaker 1: he started talking and people were like, oh, this is

2701
02:15:54,200 --> 02:15:56,040
Speaker 1: what all the hypees about, Like this is this is

2702
02:15:56,080 --> 02:15:58,720
Speaker 1: crazy and to your point. Yeah, if you're gonna run

2703
02:15:58,760 --> 02:16:02,240
Speaker 1: for governor of Texas, how the fuck are you going

2704
02:16:02,280 --> 02:16:04,240
Speaker 1: to say, Yeah, I'm coming to take your guns? Yeah,

2705
02:16:04,280 --> 02:16:07,680
Speaker 1: any other phrasing. I actually cannot think of a first

2706
02:16:08,360 --> 02:16:12,720
Speaker 1: It is Texas, the one thing you cannot say in Texas. Yeah,

2707
02:16:12,720 --> 02:16:14,080
Speaker 1: and he did it, and so yeah, I mean, I'm

2708
02:16:14,120 --> 02:16:16,520
Speaker 1: not surprised he was forced on us by the media.

2709
02:16:16,560 --> 02:16:18,880
Speaker 1: And I actually kind of liked the fact that Stacy

2710
02:16:18,880 --> 02:16:22,320
Speaker 1: Abrams and Better o'rourk overall, their national profile has just

2711
02:16:22,360 --> 02:16:24,840
Speaker 1: absolutely tanked, because again, this was the media trying to

2712
02:16:24,840 --> 02:16:27,720
Speaker 1: send up the air apparent to the like Okay, well

2713
02:16:27,760 --> 02:16:30,120
Speaker 1: we'll give you Hillary, and then okay, maybe Biden at

2714
02:16:30,120 --> 02:16:32,280
Speaker 1: the last minute will give you Okay, now they're going

2715
02:16:32,320 --> 02:16:34,600
Speaker 1: to try to do mayor Pede of course, and Conin Harris.

2716
02:16:34,800 --> 02:16:36,400
Speaker 1: But like the fact that so many of them have

2717
02:16:36,480 --> 02:16:40,840
Speaker 1: failed spectacularly leaves me hope that they're still room for

2718
02:16:41,040 --> 02:16:43,200
Speaker 1: like a candidate Obama back in two thousand and seven,

2719
02:16:43,240 --> 02:16:44,840
Speaker 1: two thousand and eight who kind of came out of

2720
02:16:44,879 --> 02:16:47,520
Speaker 1: nowhere and just captured the imagination, Like why couldn't Warnock

2721
02:16:47,560 --> 02:16:49,520
Speaker 1: do that in a presidential race for the Democrats? You

2722
02:16:49,520 --> 02:16:52,920
Speaker 1: know what, I mean, I mean, I think Kamala is

2723
02:16:52,959 --> 02:16:54,440
Speaker 1: another one that I would put on the list of

2724
02:16:54,440 --> 02:16:57,960
Speaker 1: failing spectacularly, right, Like, she might be vice president and

2725
02:16:58,800 --> 02:17:00,760
Speaker 1: they might try to force her because they don't feel

2726
02:17:00,760 --> 02:17:03,200
Speaker 1: like they can get past the first black woman vice

2727
02:17:03,240 --> 02:17:05,480
Speaker 1: president and we kind of, you know, have to go

2728
02:17:05,560 --> 02:17:10,080
Speaker 1: there next. But she's obviously already failed spectacular in terms

2729
02:17:10,120 --> 02:17:13,080
Speaker 1: of how the public feels about her. So yeah, I mean,

2730
02:17:13,120 --> 02:17:16,360
Speaker 1: the whole theory of the Democratic Party is like, Okay,

2731
02:17:16,480 --> 02:17:19,400
Speaker 1: let's just let's find the next Obama. Let's find someone

2732
02:17:19,400 --> 02:17:22,400
Speaker 1: who's you know, sort of like parrots his way of

2733
02:17:22,480 --> 02:17:26,400
Speaker 1: talking and his speech patterns, and let's just like put

2734
02:17:26,440 --> 02:17:30,360
Speaker 1: them out as this is the next one here. Congratulations

2735
02:17:30,400 --> 02:17:33,360
Speaker 1: to all of you. We've bestowed Beto and Pete and

2736
02:17:33,440 --> 02:17:37,160
Speaker 1: Kamala and Stacy Abrams upon you. And you know, it's

2737
02:17:37,200 --> 02:17:40,600
Speaker 1: no accident then that all of these media creations who

2738
02:17:40,640 --> 02:17:43,240
Speaker 1: really didn't have a lot of any like vision or

2739
02:17:43,240 --> 02:17:45,760
Speaker 1: substance or like charisma of their own to back it up,

2740
02:17:46,040 --> 02:17:48,440
Speaker 1: that they ultimately sort of fizzle out. So and it's

2741
02:17:48,440 --> 02:17:51,080
Speaker 1: a different thing for the Democratic base that was very

2742
02:17:51,080 --> 02:17:54,160
Speaker 1: excited about Stacy Abrams in Georgia last time. Aroundm very

2743
02:17:54,200 --> 02:17:56,680
Speaker 1: excited about Beta or Burke, but they also didn't really

2744
02:17:56,879 --> 02:17:59,560
Speaker 1: have a chance to sort of examine them at that point,

2745
02:17:59,680 --> 02:18:02,280
Speaker 1: you know, like they were excited about the dream of

2746
02:18:02,480 --> 02:18:05,080
Speaker 1: winning in Texas. The other thing I would say about

2747
02:18:05,120 --> 02:18:09,360
Speaker 1: that is, you know, I think the Democratic like Texas

2748
02:18:09,560 --> 02:18:14,760
Speaker 1: hopium has also significantly cooled and dimmed dramatically because of

2749
02:18:14,840 --> 02:18:18,560
Speaker 1: the shift in Latino voters absolutely right to Republicans. So,

2750
02:18:18,879 --> 02:18:21,039
Speaker 1: you know, the dream there always was you'd say, look

2751
02:18:21,080 --> 02:18:23,080
Speaker 1: at all these Latino voters and if we can get

2752
02:18:23,080 --> 02:18:24,800
Speaker 1: them to turn out, and we just need a registered

2753
02:18:24,840 --> 02:18:26,400
Speaker 1: in the vote, we get them to the polling places

2754
02:18:26,400 --> 02:18:28,920
Speaker 1: and they'll vote for Democrats. And now it's like will

2755
02:18:28,959 --> 02:18:32,160
Speaker 1: they vote for Democrats no longer clear? And in the

2756
02:18:32,200 --> 02:18:34,160
Speaker 1: Rio Grand Valley, as we have talked about and many

2757
02:18:34,160 --> 02:18:36,920
Speaker 1: others have talked about as well, huge shifts to the right.

2758
02:18:37,280 --> 02:18:40,039
Speaker 1: So that has kind of killed, let's put a real

2759
02:18:40,120 --> 02:18:42,840
Speaker 1: damper on the Democratic dreams in Texas for the moment. Well,

2760
02:18:42,840 --> 02:18:44,760
Speaker 1: there's one other thing that it's also killed because the

2761
02:18:44,800 --> 02:18:48,240
Speaker 1: real the way this, you know, Latinos like black men

2762
02:18:48,280 --> 02:18:50,920
Speaker 1: specifically going more for Republicans from twenty sixteen to twenty

2763
02:18:50,920 --> 02:18:53,640
Speaker 1: twenty was talked to us. This is just like Trump, right,

2764
02:18:53,720 --> 02:18:56,120
Speaker 1: if you were to build a guy in a lab

2765
02:18:56,800 --> 02:18:59,640
Speaker 1: who could do better for minorities, and let's hmit Romney,

2766
02:18:59,640 --> 02:19:02,520
Speaker 1: it wrote to be Donald Trump. The fact that Republicans

2767
02:19:02,520 --> 02:19:04,760
Speaker 1: are able to pull that off when Trump is not

2768
02:19:04,840 --> 02:19:08,000
Speaker 1: on the ballot, that's really the dream of that, because

2769
02:19:08,000 --> 02:19:12,119
Speaker 1: the hope the copium was Okay, let's get real, it's Trump.

2770
02:19:12,480 --> 02:19:15,880
Speaker 1: No one's shocked at that. But when generic Texas, what

2771
02:19:16,000 --> 02:19:19,000
Speaker 1: boomer Republicans pulling that up, pulling that up Myra Flores

2772
02:19:19,000 --> 02:19:20,720
Speaker 1: like whenever she won in her race. And actually, I

2773
02:19:20,760 --> 02:19:22,400
Speaker 1: mean I expect some of that data to come out

2774
02:19:22,440 --> 02:19:25,080
Speaker 1: of text. I'll be watching that very closely. So a

2775
02:19:25,120 --> 02:19:27,199
Speaker 1: little bit of an update. Vance is actually pulled ahead

2776
02:19:27,440 --> 02:19:30,039
Speaker 1: in the state of Ohio at fifty points three percent

2777
02:19:30,040 --> 02:19:32,560
Speaker 1: of the vote to Tim Ryans forty nine point seven.

2778
02:19:32,600 --> 02:19:35,600
Speaker 1: As we get more and more and North Carolina similarly,

2779
02:19:35,680 --> 02:19:38,920
Speaker 1: Ted Budd continued to maintaining the hold, although still only

2780
02:19:38,920 --> 02:19:41,160
Speaker 1: in thirty nine point four and forty eight point six.

2781
02:19:41,200 --> 02:19:43,200
Speaker 1: That's sixty nine percent of the vote. Okay, so I

2782
02:19:43,240 --> 02:19:45,360
Speaker 1: think a lot of the red votes I've got, I've

2783
02:19:45,360 --> 02:19:50,000
Speaker 1: got a John Ralston update out so this is the guy. Yeah,

2784
02:19:50,040 --> 02:19:52,560
Speaker 1: he's very well known. He has a great track record

2785
02:19:52,640 --> 02:19:54,520
Speaker 1: in Nevada in terms of predicting what the income is

2786
02:19:54,560 --> 02:19:56,240
Speaker 1: going to be. He watches the early vote in Nevada

2787
02:19:56,240 --> 02:19:58,640
Speaker 1: has long had a sizable like early mail in vote,

2788
02:19:58,680 --> 02:20:00,240
Speaker 1: so he looks at, okay, what's the parson and break

2789
02:20:00,240 --> 02:20:02,080
Speaker 1: down how much Republican, how much Democrat, how much of

2790
02:20:02,080 --> 02:20:06,120
Speaker 1: a Democratic firewell whatever. So in advance of election day,

2791
02:20:06,360 --> 02:20:10,200
Speaker 1: he actually predicted that Catherine Cortez Master, the Democrat, would

2792
02:20:10,200 --> 02:20:12,520
Speaker 1: hold on and win and that the Republican would win

2793
02:20:12,640 --> 02:20:14,680
Speaker 1: for governor. Then he started to see the votes come

2794
02:20:14,680 --> 02:20:16,760
Speaker 1: on an election day and was like, oh, I might

2795
02:20:16,800 --> 02:20:20,320
Speaker 1: need to really take that one back. So where we

2796
02:20:20,400 --> 02:20:25,359
Speaker 1: are now is he says, I've just confirmed that whatever

2797
02:20:25,400 --> 02:20:27,640
Speaker 1: mail has been dropped off today is not going to

2798
02:20:27,640 --> 02:20:30,040
Speaker 1: be tabulated tonight in Clark County. That's where Las Vegas

2799
02:20:30,120 --> 02:20:33,400
Speaker 1: is overwhelming bulk population is like the whole ballgame is

2800
02:20:33,440 --> 02:20:38,120
Speaker 1: Clark County, Indova may take until Thursday. Oh no, what

2801
02:20:38,200 --> 02:20:40,640
Speaker 1: will be tally tonight? Our election day in person and

2802
02:20:40,680 --> 02:20:43,160
Speaker 1: all the early mail votes already in the system save

2803
02:20:43,280 --> 02:20:47,360
Speaker 1: for provisional ballots. So he says it is very likely

2804
02:20:47,520 --> 02:20:50,120
Speaker 1: the top of the ticket Republicans will be ahead after

2805
02:20:50,200 --> 02:20:53,760
Speaker 1: tonight with thousands of mail ballots still uncounted, will they

2806
02:20:53,760 --> 02:20:56,080
Speaker 1: try to declare victory even though the races may not

2807
02:20:56,120 --> 02:20:57,920
Speaker 1: be over. What do you think? So, oh my god,

2808
02:20:58,320 --> 02:21:00,640
Speaker 1: there was Carrie Lake. We know what would happen. You

2809
02:21:00,640 --> 02:21:03,160
Speaker 1: know what would happen, but we don't know. Lo Salt

2810
02:21:03,200 --> 02:21:05,600
Speaker 1: is a little bit, he's not He's more of an

2811
02:21:05,680 --> 02:21:07,920
Speaker 1: establishment guy, like moved the state a couple of years ago.

2812
02:21:07,920 --> 02:21:10,720
Speaker 1: He's more of like a rich guy Republicans. So I'm

2813
02:21:10,720 --> 02:21:12,640
Speaker 1: not so sure that that would happen. I don't know

2814
02:21:12,680 --> 02:21:16,600
Speaker 1: anything about the gubernatorial Republicans. I don't know nominee in

2815
02:21:16,640 --> 02:21:20,240
Speaker 1: the state. So anyway, just heads up that that one

2816
02:21:20,720 --> 02:21:22,200
Speaker 1: that's going to flip Man and that's going to feed

2817
02:21:22,240 --> 02:21:24,640
Speaker 1: a whole bunch of We will probably not know tonight,

2818
02:21:24,760 --> 02:21:27,039
Speaker 1: and I mean, maybe it'll be clear, maybe it'll be

2819
02:21:27,160 --> 02:21:29,440
Speaker 1: Republicans are up by a whole lot. And it's basically,

2820
02:21:29,680 --> 02:21:32,440
Speaker 1: didn't he predict Democrats that Cortes Master is gonna hold

2821
02:21:32,440 --> 02:21:37,920
Speaker 1: on receipt yea his initial projection away a little bit? Yeah, okay, understood.

2822
02:21:37,920 --> 02:21:40,320
Speaker 1: But let's say there's a tiny lead for Republicans and

2823
02:21:40,400 --> 02:21:42,960
Speaker 1: you still have all these uncounted Clark County. Yeah, that's

2824
02:21:42,959 --> 02:21:44,680
Speaker 1: going to flip to the Democrats, and that's you're going

2825
02:21:44,720 --> 02:21:48,160
Speaker 1: to have like seventeen divisied susive documentaries coming out. Facts.

2826
02:21:48,320 --> 02:21:58,800
Speaker 1: That's fun. It's fun to live in America. So, I mean,

2827
02:21:58,879 --> 02:22:03,280
Speaker 1: I do think it's worse saying that other countries do

2828
02:22:03,480 --> 02:22:06,280
Speaker 1: manage to count their ballots, even with early vote and

2829
02:22:06,320 --> 02:22:10,800
Speaker 1: mail in ballots and whatever on election day. And still, yes, Brazil,

2830
02:22:10,920 --> 02:22:13,680
Speaker 1: we knew who won like right away, and we're talking

2831
02:22:13,680 --> 02:22:17,000
Speaker 1: about you know, like people voting in far flung plays.

2832
02:22:17,040 --> 02:22:19,720
Speaker 1: It's a big country. Whatever. I have a love I

2833
02:22:19,959 --> 02:22:21,920
Speaker 1: just you know, we should we should get our act

2834
02:22:21,959 --> 02:22:23,600
Speaker 1: together a little better on this. I have no reason

2835
02:22:23,680 --> 02:22:26,039
Speaker 1: you have to wait till freak Thursday to count these ballots. Guys.

2836
02:22:26,280 --> 02:22:27,600
Speaker 1: This is a good one for the panel. Guys. I

2837
02:22:27,680 --> 02:22:29,800
Speaker 1: have a love hate relationship with federalism and some things.

2838
02:22:29,879 --> 02:22:31,800
Speaker 1: I love it, but like on election and look, I

2839
02:22:31,879 --> 02:22:34,119
Speaker 1: get it, everybody like why it isn't design this way,

2840
02:22:34,120 --> 02:22:36,560
Speaker 1: but it's a pain in the ass, like you know,

2841
02:22:36,640 --> 02:22:38,960
Speaker 1: And I also talk about this with Republicans. Marshall's actually

2842
02:22:38,959 --> 02:22:40,960
Speaker 1: the one I remember I was at your house when

2843
02:22:41,000 --> 02:22:43,320
Speaker 1: you guys were all voting, and everybody in Oregon votes

2844
02:22:43,320 --> 02:22:46,560
Speaker 1: by mail. It's awesome. It's actually a much higher turnout.

2845
02:22:46,720 --> 02:22:50,280
Speaker 1: It's actually a lot easier. I understand drop boxes all stuff.

2846
02:22:50,280 --> 02:22:52,560
Speaker 1: Oregon in Washington like seem to have figured it out.

2847
02:22:52,720 --> 02:22:55,720
Speaker 1: They have way higher voter participation. It seems like everybody

2848
02:22:55,720 --> 02:22:57,680
Speaker 1: in the state likes it. And I'm not even saying

2849
02:22:57,800 --> 02:23:00,600
Speaker 1: necessarily voting by mail, but I was thinking about it

2850
02:23:00,600 --> 02:23:02,080
Speaker 1: today and I'm like, if I can log into my

2851
02:23:02,120 --> 02:23:04,720
Speaker 1: bank account with a text message, and I'm like, why

2852
02:23:04,800 --> 02:23:08,000
Speaker 1: is this so antiquate? Like so many other functions of

2853
02:23:08,000 --> 02:23:10,760
Speaker 1: our lives, like don't and I have modernized in a

2854
02:23:10,800 --> 02:23:13,640
Speaker 1: sense where voting just seems to be a shit show

2855
02:23:13,760 --> 02:23:17,080
Speaker 1: every single time that we cover it. And your nail, Crystal,

2856
02:23:17,120 --> 02:23:19,120
Speaker 1: you were some of them saying, is like it seems

2857
02:23:19,160 --> 02:23:20,879
Speaker 1: to have gotten where it does seem to be ever present,

2858
02:23:21,000 --> 02:23:23,080
Speaker 1: like you know, with two thousand, even two thousand and four,

2859
02:23:23,120 --> 02:23:25,520
Speaker 1: if I recall, I remember going to bed on two

2860
02:23:25,560 --> 02:23:27,840
Speaker 1: thousand and four election night and people saying, well, we're

2861
02:23:27,840 --> 02:23:29,840
Speaker 1: not going to know Ohio for a couple of days,

2862
02:23:29,840 --> 02:23:32,800
Speaker 1: and I don't think John Carrey conceded until the day after.

2863
02:23:33,040 --> 02:23:37,120
Speaker 1: So anyway, I mean, it's funny because so I voted

2864
02:23:37,400 --> 02:23:40,039
Speaker 1: in Austin on Friday. That's my first I've always just

2865
02:23:40,040 --> 02:23:42,560
Speaker 1: don't drop off like Neil Ballots. I waited like an

2866
02:23:42,560 --> 02:23:45,160
Speaker 1: hour in line, and I was I was early. I

2867
02:23:45,240 --> 02:23:47,879
Speaker 1: basically the answer is, I actually cannot talk of Republicans.

2868
02:23:48,160 --> 02:23:50,879
Speaker 1: I'mout this issue because Oregon it's been vote by mail forever.

2869
02:23:51,160 --> 02:23:53,520
Speaker 1: I'm sort of like, this is crazy, right, but I

2870
02:23:53,520 --> 02:23:55,160
Speaker 1: don't know, it's kind of I don't know. It's just

2871
02:23:55,200 --> 02:23:57,040
Speaker 1: sort of like I think it should be pretty like

2872
02:23:57,560 --> 02:24:00,680
Speaker 1: Ford to vote vote, and I agree should be, uh,

2873
02:24:00,840 --> 02:24:03,520
Speaker 1: it should be it should be federalized. I mean, I

2874
02:24:03,640 --> 02:24:05,480
Speaker 1: see that. It's just I know it's not gonna fly.

2875
02:24:05,720 --> 02:24:07,840
Speaker 1: But I mean, if you're designing a system from scratch,

2876
02:24:07,920 --> 02:24:10,280
Speaker 1: obviously you're gonna have the same rules everywhere. Right, We're

2877
02:24:10,280 --> 02:24:12,280
Speaker 1: not gonna be like, well, in miss Stape we count

2878
02:24:12,320 --> 02:24:14,840
Speaker 1: using donkeys. That is also why I do want to

2879
02:24:14,840 --> 02:24:16,640
Speaker 1: say that some of the g OPI talking points on

2880
02:24:16,680 --> 02:24:20,920
Speaker 1: stuff drive me into the story tradition a donkey ballot count.

2881
02:24:21,600 --> 02:24:23,000
Speaker 1: Dare you take that away from get back to the

2882
02:24:23,000 --> 02:24:25,520
Speaker 1: GOP legislators they're the ones who pass law saying you

2883
02:24:25,560 --> 02:24:29,600
Speaker 1: can't count early vote until elections. Why why well, we

2884
02:24:29,760 --> 02:24:32,520
Speaker 1: do not let me play, let me play doubles advocate,

2885
02:24:32,600 --> 02:24:34,440
Speaker 1: don't do that. I don't even know that I agree

2886
02:24:34,440 --> 02:24:37,640
Speaker 1: with this position, but somebody's got to take it. So

2887
02:24:37,840 --> 02:24:42,119
Speaker 1: if you did have the federal government basically overseeing the

2888
02:24:42,320 --> 02:24:46,080
Speaker 1: entire election infrastructure, it strikes me as likely that that

2889
02:24:46,120 --> 02:24:49,200
Speaker 1: would feed more conspiracy definitely would You're right, No, you're

2890
02:24:50,200 --> 02:24:53,280
Speaker 1: but I think Kyle, not just speak for you, but

2891
02:24:53,280 --> 02:24:57,600
Speaker 1: I think you put it accurate, normalized standards. So like

2892
02:24:57,959 --> 02:25:02,680
Speaker 1: maybe it's that like you have eight days early voting

2893
02:25:02,760 --> 02:25:06,480
Speaker 1: or this is that I think there'd be I guess,

2894
02:25:06,640 --> 02:25:09,360
Speaker 1: I guess the philosophical question, like I think people should

2895
02:25:09,360 --> 02:25:12,080
Speaker 1: think about it is like is our responsive, Like is

2896
02:25:12,360 --> 02:25:15,360
Speaker 1: our election system like not responsive enough? Or it should

2897
02:25:15,360 --> 02:25:16,840
Speaker 1: it be like more responsive? I think we should have

2898
02:25:16,879 --> 02:25:18,240
Speaker 1: more people voting, like I think that. I think the

2899
02:25:18,480 --> 02:25:21,000
Speaker 1: total thing one of my favorite things the Night Foundation

2900
02:25:21,080 --> 02:25:23,840
Speaker 1: has talked about a million times, So forgive me everybody,

2901
02:25:23,920 --> 02:25:26,080
Speaker 1: is the one hundred million American project where they talk

2902
02:25:26,120 --> 02:25:29,080
Speaker 1: about the one hundred million Americans is a compedter. Okay, right, Okay,

2903
02:25:30,040 --> 02:25:34,800
Speaker 1: it's a microsoft surface. It's not water. It's different than water.

2904
02:25:36,520 --> 02:25:40,320
Speaker 1: It's just trying to don't worry anyway. One of my

2905
02:25:40,320 --> 02:25:43,000
Speaker 1: favorite studies, one hundred Million Americans Project, which talks about

2906
02:25:43,000 --> 02:25:44,960
Speaker 1: one hundred million Americans who don't vote and the vast

2907
02:25:45,000 --> 02:25:47,320
Speaker 1: majority of Glenn Greenwald actually was tweeting about it today.

2908
02:25:47,320 --> 02:25:49,640
Speaker 1: The vast majority of people who don't vote are working class,

2909
02:25:50,160 --> 02:25:52,440
Speaker 1: are people of color, and most of them just think

2910
02:25:52,440 --> 02:25:55,760
Speaker 1: that their vote doesn't matter at all. It's sometimes there

2911
02:25:56,080 --> 02:25:58,240
Speaker 1: because you know, people will ask is it too hard

2912
02:25:58,240 --> 02:25:59,959
Speaker 1: to vote, and they're like no, like I could have,

2913
02:26:00,080 --> 02:26:02,640
Speaker 1: I wanted to, Like I just don't care. And that

2914
02:26:02,800 --> 02:26:05,039
Speaker 1: is something where Look, we seem to have very high

2915
02:26:05,040 --> 02:26:07,360
Speaker 1: turnout today. I think that's great, but if you look

2916
02:26:07,360 --> 02:26:10,640
Speaker 1: peck it to our historical standards, it still seems to

2917
02:26:10,640 --> 02:26:13,480
Speaker 1: be incredibly low. Even in twenty twenty, we s have

2918
02:26:13,640 --> 02:26:16,280
Speaker 1: much higher voter participation in this country. Yes, I know,

2919
02:26:16,360 --> 02:26:18,480
Speaker 1: not everybody could vote and all that, but if you look,

2920
02:26:18,560 --> 02:26:21,400
Speaker 1: you know, in other developing in western countries, even put

2921
02:26:21,440 --> 02:26:23,600
Speaker 1: aside the whole like it should be a national holiday,

2922
02:26:23,840 --> 02:26:26,320
Speaker 1: et cetera, discourse, people there just seem to care a

2923
02:26:26,360 --> 02:26:28,760
Speaker 1: lot more. I do think that's something that I don't

2924
02:26:28,760 --> 02:26:30,360
Speaker 1: even know if that's a federal problem that can but

2925
02:26:30,440 --> 02:26:33,720
Speaker 1: you know, I mean Trump has driven up turnout. No,

2926
02:26:34,120 --> 02:26:36,240
Speaker 1: he certainly has done that, and it hasn't been good

2927
02:26:36,240 --> 02:26:39,880
Speaker 1: for the country. So I mean, I would like turn

2928
02:26:39,920 --> 02:26:43,000
Speaker 1: out to be up, but for less or I'll take

2929
02:26:43,040 --> 02:26:46,879
Speaker 1: more turn if anything was going. I actually understand voting

2930
02:26:46,959 --> 02:26:50,000
Speaker 1: being mandatory, even more than I understand like jury Dewey

2931
02:26:50,080 --> 02:26:53,120
Speaker 1: being mandatory. You're going to make anything mandatory. I'm so

2932
02:26:53,280 --> 02:26:55,680
Speaker 1: against that. Voting isn't the way I'm not saying. I'm

2933
02:26:56,959 --> 02:26:59,040
Speaker 1: I'm saying if there is anything that you can make

2934
02:26:59,520 --> 02:27:01,560
Speaker 1: argument vote that should be mandatory, it would be that

2935
02:27:01,600 --> 02:27:03,440
Speaker 1: over jury duty or anything. All Right, I've got a

2936
02:27:03,480 --> 02:27:07,640
Speaker 1: Georgia update. It's okay. I'm pretty surprised by this one

2937
02:27:08,400 --> 02:27:11,560
Speaker 1: at this point with more than half of Georgia ballots counted.

2938
02:27:11,600 --> 02:27:14,320
Speaker 1: This is per Greg Bluestein, who we've had on rising

2939
02:27:14,360 --> 02:27:18,000
Speaker 1: and on breaking points as well. Republican Governor Kemp and

2940
02:27:18,040 --> 02:27:23,720
Speaker 1: Democratic center Rafael Warnock have almost an equal number of votes. Wow,

2941
02:27:23,840 --> 02:27:29,400
Speaker 1: whoa Warnock and Kemp equal number of votes? That is astonishing.

2942
02:27:29,520 --> 02:27:32,840
Speaker 1: I mean they're off by I mean it's very very

2943
02:27:32,879 --> 02:27:36,240
Speaker 1: little that there's a difference here. So Michel Walker's underperforming

2944
02:27:36,320 --> 02:27:41,760
Speaker 1: Stacy Abrams. Correct, wa actually herschel Walker right now. And

2945
02:27:41,800 --> 02:27:44,480
Speaker 1: this is because in the Senate race there is a

2946
02:27:44,520 --> 02:27:47,960
Speaker 1: libertarian candidate who's garnering about two percentage of two points

2947
02:27:47,959 --> 02:27:50,680
Speaker 1: of the vote right now. So herschel Walker actually has

2948
02:27:50,879 --> 02:27:54,640
Speaker 1: fewer votes than Stacy Abrams. That is crazy. Wow, that

2949
02:27:54,680 --> 02:27:56,720
Speaker 1: it really does. Shore. I mean, look, this again could

2950
02:27:56,760 --> 02:27:59,120
Speaker 1: be the cannon quality. At the same time, it's only

2951
02:27:59,160 --> 02:28:02,520
Speaker 1: fifty six percent. Do we know Brian Kemp is going

2952
02:28:02,600 --> 02:28:05,240
Speaker 1: to win? No, I agree, So if you've got Warnock

2953
02:28:05,520 --> 02:28:08,600
Speaker 1: running equal with him, this is looking to me like

2954
02:28:08,680 --> 02:28:11,039
Speaker 1: the question isn't who comes out on top, it's whether

2955
02:28:11,320 --> 02:28:14,160
Speaker 1: he avoids a or not. Great point, but the fifty

2956
02:28:14,200 --> 02:28:15,959
Speaker 1: fifty Oh go ahead, I have a call. It is

2957
02:28:15,959 --> 02:28:22,840
Speaker 1: with a call JB. Pritzker. Oh, big boy, big boy. Well,

2958
02:28:22,879 --> 02:28:25,120
Speaker 1: I mean this is a This is somebody who you

2959
02:28:25,160 --> 02:28:28,760
Speaker 1: know certainly thinks of himself as a potential presidential candidate

2960
02:28:28,760 --> 02:28:31,879
Speaker 1: in the future. This is someone who, uh similar to

2961
02:28:31,920 --> 02:28:35,440
Speaker 1: Gavin Newsom, although not quite as overt and shameless, has

2962
02:28:35,480 --> 02:28:38,560
Speaker 1: made some moves to try to position himself in the eventuality.

2963
02:28:38,640 --> 02:28:41,199
Speaker 1: If Biden doesn't run, I think he would be one

2964
02:28:41,240 --> 02:28:43,920
Speaker 1: who would run. He's also happens to be a billionaire,

2965
02:28:44,080 --> 02:28:46,440
Speaker 1: so uh, you know that never hurts in terms of

2966
02:28:46,440 --> 02:28:50,160
Speaker 1: our political system. And it's Michael Bloomberg. I think I

2967
02:28:50,240 --> 02:28:55,279
Speaker 1: think it's probably not a money though I actually actually

2968
02:28:55,959 --> 02:28:58,600
Speaker 1: mad stage. Yeah, I think being a billionaire probably hurts

2969
02:28:58,600 --> 02:29:02,040
Speaker 1: you as a presidential candidate. I think I think I

2970
02:29:02,080 --> 02:29:05,760
Speaker 1: think it causes it insolarty and just like the things

2971
02:29:05,760 --> 02:29:07,880
Speaker 1: that happened you for your a billion I know, obviously

2972
02:29:07,959 --> 02:29:09,480
Speaker 1: I think it's I think it's bad. I think you

2973
02:29:09,480 --> 02:29:11,600
Speaker 1: want to be like in the hundred million. All right,

2974
02:29:12,640 --> 02:29:17,959
Speaker 1: there's a sweet spot, millionaire ritory spot. He's getting re

2975
02:29:18,000 --> 02:29:22,039
Speaker 1: elected tonight. The funny thing. The funny thing about Pritzker

2976
02:29:22,440 --> 02:29:26,039
Speaker 1: is like there was a moment in online discourse where

2977
02:29:26,040 --> 02:29:29,000
Speaker 1: progressives and lefties got like super excited about this guy,

2978
02:29:29,120 --> 02:29:31,760
Speaker 1: and there's like a whole thing. And it was really

2979
02:29:31,800 --> 02:29:34,760
Speaker 1: because he just like ran on a couple of things

2980
02:29:34,840 --> 02:29:37,400
Speaker 1: and then actually did them when he became governor, and

2981
02:29:37,440 --> 02:29:38,800
Speaker 1: the bar was so low that they were like, oh

2982
02:29:38,800 --> 02:29:40,640
Speaker 1: my god, we love this guy. He's amazing. By the way,

2983
02:29:40,640 --> 02:29:43,959
Speaker 1: one more call Jared Polis has been re elected governor

2984
02:29:43,959 --> 02:29:47,360
Speaker 1: of Colorado, Governor of colorow other guy position. That is

2985
02:29:47,400 --> 02:29:50,560
Speaker 1: an important point because in the red tsunami scenario, they

2986
02:29:50,600 --> 02:29:53,560
Speaker 1: actually thought that Polis was possibly so that is an

2987
02:29:53,600 --> 02:29:56,000
Speaker 1: important That is an important data point to shout out

2988
02:29:56,000 --> 02:29:58,800
Speaker 1: for everyone. Also, Michael Bennett there with thirty eight percent,

2989
02:29:59,440 --> 02:30:03,280
Speaker 1: is at three percent. Reporting is up by sixty to forty,

2990
02:30:03,320 --> 02:30:06,360
Speaker 1: which is pretty remarkable for what we have there. Wow,

2991
02:30:06,440 --> 02:30:08,959
Speaker 1: you know, I mean, I'm pretty stunned by those numbers,

2992
02:30:08,959 --> 02:30:10,720
Speaker 1: the Georgia numbers, because we've got two thirds of the

2993
02:30:10,760 --> 02:30:14,959
Speaker 1: vote in from Georgia. I so far very surprised that

2994
02:30:15,320 --> 02:30:19,440
Speaker 1: Warnock and Kemp a running even I did not see

2995
02:30:19,440 --> 02:30:23,080
Speaker 1: that coming. And that again, I mean that seems like

2996
02:30:23,160 --> 02:30:26,440
Speaker 1: again polls under estimating the Democrats a little bit in

2997
02:30:26,480 --> 02:30:28,400
Speaker 1: the state of Georgia. So all right, we'll keep an

2998
02:30:28,400 --> 02:30:30,320
Speaker 1: eye on it. In the meantime, we've got our great

2999
02:30:30,360 --> 02:30:33,160
Speaker 1: friend Jameiles Coleman is back to tell us what he

3000
02:30:33,520 --> 02:30:36,440
Speaker 1: is making of these numbers. Great to see you again,

3001
02:30:36,879 --> 02:30:41,000
Speaker 1: we missed you. So we're just talking about Georgia. Greg Bluesein,

3002
02:30:41,800 --> 02:30:45,320
Speaker 1: who's with the Atlanta Journal Constitution, just tweeted out that

3003
02:30:45,600 --> 02:30:48,840
Speaker 1: Warnock and Kemp are running even in terms of the

3004
02:30:48,920 --> 02:30:51,040
Speaker 1: number of votes they are getting, which is something that

3005
02:30:51,080 --> 02:30:53,160
Speaker 1: really surprised us. I mean, how is Georgia looking to

3006
02:30:53,200 --> 02:30:56,680
Speaker 1: you at this point? Well, someone who I also think

3007
02:30:56,720 --> 02:31:00,600
Speaker 1: had a really really good tweet is Nate Towing at

3008
02:31:00,640 --> 02:31:03,440
Speaker 1: the New York Times. He's like, well than Florida, it

3009
02:31:03,480 --> 02:31:07,000
Speaker 1: seems like it's a decent night for Democrats and right,

3010
02:31:07,160 --> 02:31:11,240
Speaker 1: and like, one county I'm really looking at in Georgia

3011
02:31:11,400 --> 02:31:16,640
Speaker 1: is called Clayton County, really south of Atlanta, majority black.

3012
02:31:17,760 --> 02:31:21,160
Speaker 1: In the twenty twenty one runoffs, I think Warnot got

3013
02:31:21,160 --> 02:31:23,240
Speaker 1: about eighty nine percent of the vote there. He's at

3014
02:31:23,280 --> 02:31:26,760
Speaker 1: eighty eight, so, I mean, Warnock is definitely holding up

3015
02:31:26,879 --> 02:31:30,039
Speaker 1: very well. So you know, it's it's going to be

3016
02:31:30,080 --> 02:31:32,920
Speaker 1: an interesting kind of ticket split that we're seeing in Georgia.

3017
02:31:32,959 --> 02:31:36,440
Speaker 1: In favorite Warnock at the tempt which is quite interesting. Yeah,

3018
02:31:36,520 --> 02:31:38,400
Speaker 1: lots of tickets splitting going on. What are some of

3019
02:31:38,400 --> 02:31:40,000
Speaker 1: the things that you're taking a look at, Miles, give

3020
02:31:40,040 --> 02:31:42,160
Speaker 1: us some of your insights some of the big things

3021
02:31:42,200 --> 02:31:47,240
Speaker 1: flashing across your radar that you think the audience should know. Sure, So,

3022
02:31:47,320 --> 02:31:49,560
Speaker 1: earlier we were talking about how you know, sometimes you

3023
02:31:49,640 --> 02:31:51,920
Speaker 1: have to be a little patient when looking for some

3024
02:31:52,080 --> 02:31:54,400
Speaker 1: when waiting for some of these results to come come in.

3025
02:31:55,040 --> 02:31:58,000
Speaker 1: You know, last week talked Tim Ryan was up in Ohio.

3026
02:31:58,560 --> 02:32:01,560
Speaker 1: Looks like jd Vance has taken the lead lead there

3027
02:32:01,720 --> 02:32:05,720
Speaker 1: very so lightly. One thing in the House that's sort

3028
02:32:05,760 --> 02:32:09,400
Speaker 1: of caught my attention is a lot of Republicans were

3029
02:32:09,520 --> 02:32:12,199
Speaker 1: very excited about picking up a seat in Rhode Island.

3030
02:32:12,879 --> 02:32:16,800
Speaker 1: They had a good candidate in Alan fond Long. It

3031
02:32:16,840 --> 02:32:22,080
Speaker 1: looks like you lost that seat in Rhode Island. So

3032
02:32:22,160 --> 02:32:24,680
Speaker 1: overall it looks like, you know, it may not be

3033
02:32:25,040 --> 02:32:27,000
Speaker 1: as much of a red wave as you know, maybe

3034
02:32:27,080 --> 02:32:31,320
Speaker 1: red rain as pe Or Gabriel said, Yeah, I've got

3035
02:32:31,400 --> 02:32:33,920
Speaker 1: another one here, which is a CNN at least has

3036
02:32:33,959 --> 02:32:36,880
Speaker 1: projected that Jennifer Wexton is going to hold her seat

3037
02:32:36,920 --> 02:32:42,400
Speaker 1: in Virginia's tenth congressional district. Now, of the districts that

3038
02:32:42,480 --> 02:32:45,880
Speaker 1: were vulnerable in Virginia, of the Democratic districts that were

3039
02:32:45,920 --> 02:32:48,160
Speaker 1: vulnerable in Virginia, I think this is the one where

3040
02:32:48,160 --> 02:32:51,160
Speaker 1: Biden had the largest margin. Correct me if I'm wrong.

3041
02:32:51,600 --> 02:32:54,640
Speaker 1: But the worry was if we really were in like

3042
02:32:54,680 --> 02:32:57,720
Speaker 1: a red tsunami kind of a year, even a Jennifer

3043
02:32:57,760 --> 02:33:01,279
Speaker 1: Wexton could end up losing her seat. Sure. That's something

3044
02:33:01,320 --> 02:33:03,959
Speaker 1: you saw within the last few weeks is that there

3045
02:33:04,040 --> 02:33:06,920
Speaker 1: was all this talk of dij you Boden. This is

3046
02:33:06,959 --> 02:33:09,440
Speaker 1: a seat that Joe Biden won by eighteen points. So

3047
02:33:09,440 --> 02:33:11,160
Speaker 1: you know, if a seat like that is in play

3048
02:33:11,240 --> 02:33:13,280
Speaker 1: or even clips now, that's going to be the sign

3049
02:33:13,320 --> 02:33:16,720
Speaker 1: of a really good night Republicans. One other thing in

3050
02:33:16,959 --> 02:33:21,760
Speaker 1: Virginia is it looks like Abigail Spanberg, who has a

3051
02:33:21,760 --> 02:33:24,480
Speaker 1: more marginal seat to see that Joe Biden won by

3052
02:33:24,560 --> 02:33:28,360
Speaker 1: only six or seven, she's only slightly down now, and

3053
02:33:28,400 --> 02:33:30,520
Speaker 1: it looks like there are more early votes out that

3054
02:33:30,600 --> 02:33:33,280
Speaker 1: are going to be more frank friendly to her. So

3055
02:33:33,360 --> 02:33:36,080
Speaker 1: it looks like the Democrats are very going to are

3056
02:33:36,520 --> 02:33:40,199
Speaker 1: very likely going to go to for three seats in Virginia.

3057
02:33:40,600 --> 02:33:43,280
Speaker 1: The only one they lost was Elaine Laurier, who you

3058
02:33:43,280 --> 02:33:46,240
Speaker 1: know that that's just a tough seat. So you know,

3059
02:33:46,320 --> 02:33:51,199
Speaker 1: I think if Spanberger lost in District seven that Republicans

3060
02:33:51,240 --> 02:33:53,920
Speaker 1: were on track to gain over twenty five seats. That

3061
02:33:54,240 --> 02:33:56,840
Speaker 1: doesn't look like it's going to be the case. Wow,

3062
02:33:56,840 --> 02:33:59,560
Speaker 1: So what would you what would you put it at now? Actually,

3063
02:33:59,560 --> 02:34:02,000
Speaker 1: live in that Bamberger district, so I know it decently well.

3064
02:34:02,040 --> 02:34:05,000
Speaker 1: But yeah, would what would you put it at now

3065
02:34:05,040 --> 02:34:07,600
Speaker 1: in terms of where you project Republicans may end up

3066
02:34:07,640 --> 02:34:10,039
Speaker 1: in terms of the House. Yeah, now it's hard to tell,

3067
02:34:10,080 --> 02:34:13,280
Speaker 1: but maybe about fifteen to twenty seats, so you know

3068
02:34:13,320 --> 02:34:16,119
Speaker 1: they're going to have a comfortable majority, but it's not

3069
02:34:16,200 --> 02:34:18,879
Speaker 1: going to be you know, it's not going to be

3070
02:34:18,959 --> 02:34:21,800
Speaker 1: like two hundred and fifty seats or anything that's fascinating. Well,

3071
02:34:21,800 --> 02:34:23,640
Speaker 1: I mean that really doesn't stick. I mean, look, I

3072
02:34:23,640 --> 02:34:26,119
Speaker 1: mean there's a lot of surprises, like you said, other

3073
02:34:26,200 --> 02:34:29,600
Speaker 1: than Florida, it looks like a better night than expected.

3074
02:34:29,879 --> 02:34:33,480
Speaker 1: So as we're beginning to move west on the map, miles,

3075
02:34:33,520 --> 02:34:36,160
Speaker 1: are you seeing anything yet that we should know about Wisconsin,

3076
02:34:36,240 --> 02:34:39,560
Speaker 1: about Texas, or about any of the Midwestern states that

3077
02:34:39,560 --> 02:34:42,920
Speaker 1: could be noteworthy? You know, it looks like, you know,

3078
02:34:42,959 --> 02:34:47,440
Speaker 1: it's mostly the early boat there. It looks like Governor

3079
02:34:47,480 --> 02:34:52,720
Speaker 1: Whitner is ahead. She's someone who if she lost, you know,

3080
02:34:52,800 --> 02:34:55,720
Speaker 1: that would be a very big upset for the Republicans.

3081
02:34:55,800 --> 02:35:01,360
Speaker 1: But just one to sort of watch. You were talking about,

3082
02:35:01,800 --> 02:35:03,280
Speaker 1: you know, right before I came on, I think we

3083
02:35:03,280 --> 02:35:07,480
Speaker 1: were talking about Colorado, where Republicans talked a lot about

3084
02:35:07,560 --> 02:35:10,880
Speaker 1: unseen Senator Bennett. Yeah, you know, I think he's probably

3085
02:35:10,920 --> 02:35:13,959
Speaker 1: going to be in decent shape as well. So, you know,

3086
02:35:13,959 --> 02:35:18,480
Speaker 1: again just not a super Republican knight. They may end

3087
02:35:18,560 --> 02:35:23,680
Speaker 1: up underperforming expectations. Talk to me about Pennsylvania. I know

3088
02:35:23,760 --> 02:35:26,560
Speaker 1: it's still very early. I know we likely I mean,

3089
02:35:26,640 --> 02:35:31,039
Speaker 1: I know we have a big blue barrage there right now.

3090
02:35:31,080 --> 02:35:34,120
Speaker 1: What do you make of the ticket splitting that is

3091
02:35:34,200 --> 02:35:40,120
Speaker 1: going on there with Shapiro outperforming Fetterman. Yes, I'm very

3092
02:35:40,120 --> 02:35:42,960
Speaker 1: glad you brought that up. In fact, that's why Pat

3093
02:35:43,000 --> 02:35:47,400
Speaker 1: Toomey was re elected in twenty sixteen to the s

3094
02:35:47,440 --> 02:35:51,480
Speaker 1: say same seat. What I'm really watching is the collar

3095
02:35:51,640 --> 02:35:56,800
Speaker 1: counties around Philadelphia. This isn't an area that Oz has

3096
02:35:56,840 --> 02:36:00,800
Speaker 1: to win, he just has to come close. In twenty sixteen,

3097
02:36:01,000 --> 02:36:06,080
Speaker 1: the coller counties around Philadelphia went to Hillary Clinton by

3098
02:36:06,320 --> 02:36:10,600
Speaker 1: I think ten to fifteen points. Pat Toomey only lost

3099
02:36:10,680 --> 02:36:13,480
Speaker 1: him by five or six, so you know, he kept

3100
02:36:13,520 --> 02:36:18,039
Speaker 1: those types of counties closer. So that's in Pennsylvania. That's

3101
02:36:18,080 --> 02:36:21,600
Speaker 1: an area I'm really watching. That's really interesting. Miles. So

3102
02:36:21,680 --> 02:36:24,560
Speaker 1: we've seen a couple of initial calls by Decision desk

3103
02:36:24,640 --> 02:36:27,840
Speaker 1: and others for Brian Kemp in Georgia. That's what I

3104
02:36:27,879 --> 02:36:29,440
Speaker 1: was just taking a look at. I know it's too

3105
02:36:29,480 --> 02:36:32,720
Speaker 1: early necessarily for you to say, but would we then

3106
02:36:32,879 --> 02:36:36,080
Speaker 1: look at Camp's vote total visa vi Warnock? Is that

3107
02:36:36,120 --> 02:36:37,960
Speaker 1: looking pretty good for him? Is that a takeaway that

3108
02:36:38,000 --> 02:36:42,120
Speaker 1: we could say? Yeah, I mean I would say, it

3109
02:36:42,160 --> 02:36:44,680
Speaker 1: looks like, you know, I can see there being a

3110
02:36:44,760 --> 02:36:49,640
Speaker 1: lot of tickets splits between Kemp and Yayn Wornock. Interestingly,

3111
02:36:49,680 --> 02:36:52,760
Speaker 1: in Georgia, one thing that caught my attent attention is

3112
02:36:52,800 --> 02:36:55,840
Speaker 1: it looks like someone who's performing even better than Kemp

3113
02:36:56,000 --> 02:37:00,200
Speaker 1: is Brad Brafensberger was their second Who is their secrettech area? Say,

3114
02:37:00,240 --> 02:37:03,800
Speaker 1: you know he's a one who wouldn't you know who who?

3115
02:37:04,200 --> 02:37:06,520
Speaker 1: After the twenty twenty election, Trump was like, you know, hey,

3116
02:37:06,560 --> 02:37:09,240
Speaker 1: could you find you know, eleven thousand votes for me?

3117
02:37:10,120 --> 02:37:13,600
Speaker 1: And Brad Raffensburger stood up a Trump. So I think

3118
02:37:13,600 --> 02:37:16,720
Speaker 1: it's interesting. You may have some Democrats who say, no,

3119
02:37:16,840 --> 02:37:20,920
Speaker 1: we don't normally vote Republican, but we like that Camp

3120
02:37:21,000 --> 02:37:24,360
Speaker 1: and raffens Burger they did their job and stood up

3121
02:37:24,400 --> 02:37:29,760
Speaker 1: to Trump. Yeah, what can you tell us? Miles about

3122
02:37:29,879 --> 02:37:33,400
Speaker 1: the history here, because you know, one of the things

3123
02:37:33,400 --> 02:37:36,320
Speaker 1: that was really going against Democrats hard is they're the

3124
02:37:36,360 --> 02:37:39,360
Speaker 1: party in power, and party in power usually does not

3125
02:37:39,480 --> 02:37:43,600
Speaker 1: do well in these midterms, and so you know, they're

3126
02:37:43,680 --> 02:37:45,879
Speaker 1: still likely to lose the House. I mean, they're almost

3127
02:37:45,879 --> 02:37:48,440
Speaker 1: certain to lose the House. So it's not like this

3128
02:37:48,520 --> 02:37:50,800
Speaker 1: is a great year for them. But if they hold

3129
02:37:50,840 --> 02:37:53,480
Speaker 1: on to the Senate, which they certainly, you know, are

3130
02:37:53,480 --> 02:37:56,280
Speaker 1: in position out of the potential to do at least,

3131
02:37:56,680 --> 02:37:59,040
Speaker 1: that would be a sort of a victory in and

3132
02:37:59,040 --> 02:38:01,840
Speaker 1: of itself, and a lot less than what Republicans were

3133
02:38:01,920 --> 02:38:05,880
Speaker 1: hoping to get out of this day. You know, how

3134
02:38:06,000 --> 02:38:10,160
Speaker 1: unusual is that historically? And what can we say about

3135
02:38:10,200 --> 02:38:14,920
Speaker 1: what may have contributed to an unusual dynamic this election year? Yeah,

3136
02:38:15,040 --> 02:38:20,120
Speaker 1: it's it's I think in something like the forty mid

3137
02:38:20,200 --> 02:38:25,320
Speaker 1: terms since the Civil War, the president's mid the president's

3138
02:38:25,320 --> 02:38:29,840
Speaker 1: party almost always loses seats. The two exceptions were in

3139
02:38:29,920 --> 02:38:33,240
Speaker 1: nineteen ninety eight or two of the most recent exceptions

3140
02:38:33,680 --> 02:38:36,920
Speaker 1: were in nineteen ninety eight, where a lot of people

3141
02:38:36,959 --> 02:38:40,039
Speaker 1: didn't like how the Republicans were trying to impeach Bill Clinton.

3142
02:38:40,160 --> 02:38:43,640
Speaker 1: That kind of that back back far on them. And

3143
02:38:43,760 --> 02:38:47,040
Speaker 1: in O two where George W. Bush was really riding

3144
02:38:47,120 --> 02:38:50,039
Speaker 1: high after nine to eleven. You know, I think what

3145
02:38:50,120 --> 02:38:53,000
Speaker 1: could make this year? You know, maybe something of an

3146
02:38:53,000 --> 02:38:57,320
Speaker 1: exception is biding by most measures, isn't a popular president,

3147
02:38:58,200 --> 02:39:02,920
Speaker 1: but the Supreme Court isn't popular either, and that's kind

3148
02:39:02,920 --> 02:39:08,520
Speaker 1: of controlled by most of Republican appointed justices. One thing

3149
02:39:08,600 --> 02:39:12,160
Speaker 1: I was one thing that I think is maybe making

3150
02:39:12,160 --> 02:39:18,879
Speaker 1: this election different is we sort of touched on this earlier,

3151
02:39:19,160 --> 02:39:23,439
Speaker 1: but Democrats tend to be gaining with college educated white voters.

3152
02:39:23,840 --> 02:39:28,039
Speaker 1: They tend to vote at the highest rates. In twenty ten,

3153
02:39:28,360 --> 02:39:34,080
Speaker 1: I think the Republicans carry the college white vote excuse me,

3154
02:39:34,720 --> 02:39:38,920
Speaker 1: by sixty forty. In twenty eighteen, the Democrats won that

3155
02:39:39,000 --> 02:39:42,240
Speaker 1: group by about eight points. That's stuck in twenty twenty.

3156
02:39:43,000 --> 02:39:46,320
Speaker 1: So their gains with college educated whites, who are a

3157
02:39:46,440 --> 02:39:50,400
Speaker 1: higher propensity voting group, may be helping them in some

3158
02:39:50,480 --> 02:39:54,080
Speaker 1: of these key races. That's really interesting. Okay, So what

3159
02:39:54,160 --> 02:39:55,920
Speaker 1: are some other things people should take a look at

3160
02:39:55,959 --> 02:39:58,600
Speaker 1: as the night progressive? Miles? Is the night very young?

3161
02:39:59,280 --> 02:40:01,720
Speaker 1: Is it? Are we learning things? Where where would you

3162
02:40:01,760 --> 02:40:03,920
Speaker 1: put us in terms of where we are going to be?

3163
02:40:04,520 --> 02:40:06,640
Speaker 1: I would say it's quite young. I mean, I would

3164
02:40:06,640 --> 02:40:09,400
Speaker 1: do you know, I mean not to be selfish and

3165
02:40:09,440 --> 02:40:13,480
Speaker 1: stick to my home state of Virginia. Uh. Just the

3166
02:40:13,520 --> 02:40:16,040
Speaker 1: fact that it looks like Democrats are going to hold

3167
02:40:16,040 --> 02:40:19,880
Speaker 1: two of those three competitive Thiefs Center, that to me

3168
02:40:20,000 --> 02:40:22,360
Speaker 1: is a pretty good sign that this might not be

3169
02:40:22,520 --> 02:40:26,400
Speaker 1: as big a Republican night as something expect. Yep, I

3170
02:40:26,440 --> 02:40:28,360
Speaker 1: think that's the That's the only takeaway that we can

3171
02:40:28,400 --> 02:40:30,400
Speaker 1: really come away with right now. It was great talking

3172
02:40:30,400 --> 02:40:31,920
Speaker 1: with you, Miles once again. Thank you so much for

3173
02:40:32,000 --> 02:40:34,640
Speaker 1: joining us, Sarah, We're fantasy. Yeah, super super helpful. Thank you,

3174
02:40:34,640 --> 02:40:40,000
Speaker 1: miss Thank you absolutely so. While he was talking reflections takeaways,

3175
02:40:40,000 --> 02:40:41,440
Speaker 1: what do you guys? So I want to ask you

3176
02:40:41,480 --> 02:40:43,640
Speaker 1: guys a question. Yeah. This this popped into my head

3177
02:40:43,640 --> 02:40:46,119
Speaker 1: as I was listening to him talk. Remember when Mitch

3178
02:40:46,200 --> 02:40:49,320
Speaker 1: McConnell was getting in that back and forth with Rick Scott. Yes,

3179
02:40:49,600 --> 02:40:51,960
Speaker 1: because Rick Scott released an agenda and said we're going

3180
02:40:52,000 --> 02:40:54,480
Speaker 1: to run on this and like seventy percent of it

3181
02:40:54,520 --> 02:40:58,440
Speaker 1: was like cut some terribly on podcast. So my question

3182
02:40:58,520 --> 02:41:01,959
Speaker 1: for you is, Yeah, is Mitch McConnell correct in that

3183
02:41:02,160 --> 02:41:05,920
Speaker 1: basically the Republican plan should have been everybody shut the

3184
02:41:05,920 --> 02:41:10,320
Speaker 1: fuck up. Yeah no, yes, I think he was. And

3185
02:41:10,360 --> 02:41:12,400
Speaker 1: this is where Republicans will be. This is my Republicans.

3186
02:41:12,400 --> 02:41:16,039
Speaker 1: We're in trouble when Trump was president. You shouldn't say anything,

3187
02:41:16,480 --> 02:41:19,800
Speaker 1: yeah you actually you should just be like things are bad,

3188
02:41:21,600 --> 02:41:23,480
Speaker 1: we have this like vague thing to make them better.

3189
02:41:24,600 --> 02:41:27,240
Speaker 1: Because if you say, oh, are you word oft inflation?

3190
02:41:27,640 --> 02:41:30,840
Speaker 1: Word about energy prices, it's the country's vibe off. We're

3191
02:41:30,840 --> 02:41:33,280
Speaker 1: going to cut a security. That's not a good message.

3192
02:41:33,640 --> 02:41:39,200
Speaker 1: So that's the that's the that's your inflation. Certainly what

3193
02:41:39,520 --> 02:41:42,760
Speaker 1: let's give it to me. I mean if they had

3194
02:41:42,879 --> 02:41:48,440
Speaker 1: run Glenn Youngkin type Plaine Vanilla wearing the sweater vest

3195
02:41:48,680 --> 02:41:56,200
Speaker 1: in offensive, rich Duke sas banker, wasn't Carlisle your hard

3196
02:41:56,280 --> 02:41:59,880
Speaker 1: for Carle So they couldn't even make the case against

3197
02:41:59,879 --> 02:42:04,080
Speaker 1: anyway if they just run like Bland, no record have

3198
02:42:04,280 --> 02:42:07,360
Speaker 1: in like put him through the primary. And this is

3199
02:42:07,400 --> 02:42:09,200
Speaker 1: what they did with young Kin. He didn't have a

3200
02:42:09,280 --> 02:42:11,720
Speaker 1: normal like voters go to the polls primary. He was

3201
02:42:11,760 --> 02:42:15,680
Speaker 1: basically picked by Republican elites. Didn't have to say much

3202
02:42:15,680 --> 02:42:20,080
Speaker 1: about anything controversial. And you know, if Republicans had candidates

3203
02:42:20,080 --> 02:42:22,760
Speaker 1: that were like that in all of these Senate races,

3204
02:42:22,920 --> 02:42:26,000
Speaker 1: I think we would see a different result. But I

3205
02:42:26,000 --> 02:42:28,200
Speaker 1: also think the way Miles put it is very interesting

3206
02:42:28,320 --> 02:42:34,360
Speaker 1: because effectively, throughout history, typically party in power does poorly

3207
02:42:34,480 --> 02:42:37,920
Speaker 1: in midterm elections. But what he's saying is, effectively, because

3208
02:42:37,959 --> 02:42:42,680
Speaker 1: the Supreme Court made this really dramatic decision, people didn't

3209
02:42:42,720 --> 02:42:46,760
Speaker 1: have the sense of like Democrats are in charge of everything.

3210
02:42:47,240 --> 02:42:49,920
Speaker 1: They saw there was this other power center that was

3211
02:42:50,040 --> 02:42:53,840
Speaker 1: actually controlled by Republicans. And so he's saying that's what

3212
02:42:54,080 --> 02:42:59,360
Speaker 1: made this historical situation potentially a little different, is because

3213
02:42:59,360 --> 02:43:02,760
Speaker 1: it didn't actually feel to voters like there's just one

3214
02:43:02,800 --> 02:43:05,000
Speaker 1: party that's controlling the country right now. I think that's

3215
02:43:05,000 --> 02:43:06,959
Speaker 1: an interesting way. I think it is really interesting, and

3216
02:43:07,000 --> 02:43:10,279
Speaker 1: you know, I just to try and piece little signs together.

3217
02:43:10,480 --> 02:43:12,879
Speaker 1: You know, given the fact that it is early to

3218
02:43:12,920 --> 02:43:17,120
Speaker 1: not have those two Virginia seats go red is somewhat

3219
02:43:17,120 --> 02:43:19,960
Speaker 1: of a bell weather. On top of you have NBC

3220
02:43:20,120 --> 02:43:23,800
Speaker 1: News now calling the race straight up for Michael Bennett

3221
02:43:23,840 --> 02:43:27,400
Speaker 1: only what right, So it's not even close, and as

3222
02:43:27,480 --> 02:43:29,920
Speaker 1: Dave Wigel puts it, this does not seem like a

3223
02:43:29,959 --> 02:43:33,440
Speaker 1: midterm electorate that's going to bounce Patty Murray or Michael Bennett.

3224
02:43:33,440 --> 02:43:35,600
Speaker 1: And I think that's an important takeaway, right, which is

3225
02:43:35,600 --> 02:43:39,440
Speaker 1: that that's the quote red rain, that's the quote that

3226
02:43:39,440 --> 02:43:42,560
Speaker 1: it shows you that the red puddle, the red puddle puddle,

3227
02:43:42,640 --> 02:43:45,360
Speaker 1: which is that I thought there was, let's say, ten

3228
02:43:45,360 --> 02:43:47,240
Speaker 1: percent chance. I think that I said that on the show.

3229
02:43:47,280 --> 02:43:49,440
Speaker 1: I thought there was a ten percent chance, and my

3230
02:43:49,600 --> 02:43:52,320
Speaker 1: emotional leanings were genuinely putting me there, but I was

3231
02:43:52,360 --> 02:43:54,400
Speaker 1: trying to be objective about it. I was like, you know,

3232
02:43:54,400 --> 02:43:57,560
Speaker 1: I think there's a chance Patty Murray could could lose, right,

3233
02:43:57,560 --> 02:43:59,640
Speaker 1: And I was telling you before I'd heard rumors this

3234
02:43:59,720 --> 02:44:02,320
Speaker 1: morning she's worried about it. They were saying, look, guys,

3235
02:44:02,360 --> 02:44:03,960
Speaker 1: it's going to take a long time. I don't think

3236
02:44:04,000 --> 02:44:06,560
Speaker 1: she says in danger given the Michael Bennett vote, given

3237
02:44:06,600 --> 02:44:09,600
Speaker 1: the electorate that we've seen in Virginia. And that is

3238
02:44:09,640 --> 02:44:13,359
Speaker 1: just going to be a really interesting, multifaceted takeaway for everybody,

3239
02:44:13,360 --> 02:44:15,800
Speaker 1: because Crystal one could make the case. And I think

3240
02:44:15,800 --> 02:44:18,280
Speaker 1: you're right, which is that if the Dems do hang

3241
02:44:18,320 --> 02:44:21,640
Speaker 1: on and they do better, especially if if Warnock wins,

3242
02:44:21,680 --> 02:44:23,119
Speaker 1: I mean, I think that's going to be a tremendous

3243
02:44:23,640 --> 02:44:26,320
Speaker 1: upset for them. It really will be one of those

3244
02:44:26,400 --> 02:44:30,240
Speaker 1: where it would be a vindication for the abortion first messaging,

3245
02:44:30,280 --> 02:44:32,640
Speaker 1: and I think that will be the absolute takeaway for

3246
02:44:32,760 --> 02:44:35,600
Speaker 1: the MSNBC kind of left very convenient, you know, for

3247
02:44:35,640 --> 02:44:38,640
Speaker 1: the centers of power. That's going to be a fascinating

3248
02:44:38,680 --> 02:44:41,520
Speaker 1: thing though, because in some ways it did work some

3249
02:44:41,640 --> 02:44:44,400
Speaker 1: of what you talked about, Kyle. Look, whether it's true

3250
02:44:44,480 --> 02:44:45,720
Speaker 1: or not, they're not going to talk about it, so

3251
02:44:45,840 --> 02:44:48,640
Speaker 1: I agree. So I agree, whether it is true on

3252
02:44:48,680 --> 02:44:50,800
Speaker 1: that front or not, I don't think it will necessarily.

3253
02:44:50,959 --> 02:44:53,600
Speaker 1: I also think it will be a vindication of the

3254
02:44:53,680 --> 02:44:56,920
Speaker 1: Dems talking as much as they are about democracy again,

3255
02:44:57,120 --> 02:45:00,480
Speaker 1: whether or not it is even true at the batt level.

3256
02:45:00,520 --> 02:45:03,120
Speaker 1: So trying to think now about the meta takeaways from

3257
02:45:03,120 --> 02:45:06,000
Speaker 1: what we generally see things are going on tonight, we

3258
02:45:06,040 --> 02:45:08,720
Speaker 1: don't yet know. If it's very early obviously Arizona, I

3259
02:45:08,840 --> 02:45:11,440
Speaker 1: still expect to be, you know, a really crazy one

3260
02:45:11,440 --> 02:45:13,400
Speaker 1: that we're gonna have to follow for days on end.

3261
02:45:13,480 --> 02:45:16,480
Speaker 1: Same thing in Pennsylvania, et cetera. Let's put that aside.

3262
02:45:17,080 --> 02:45:19,680
Speaker 1: It is interesting about what the meta debates will be

3263
02:45:19,680 --> 02:45:21,760
Speaker 1: because from what I can see right now on the right,

3264
02:45:22,000 --> 02:45:24,879
Speaker 1: there's only one thing coming out Florida is a red state.

3265
02:45:25,200 --> 02:45:27,320
Speaker 1: It's like, Okay, well that's great. They're putting up the part,

3266
02:45:27,320 --> 02:45:30,680
Speaker 1: but they're not but they're not celebrating really everything else.

3267
02:45:30,760 --> 02:45:33,680
Speaker 1: So that's kind of interesting to me. Okay, I want

3268
02:45:33,720 --> 02:45:35,920
Speaker 1: to know if you guys think this is a crazy thought,

3269
02:45:35,959 --> 02:45:38,080
Speaker 1: But like, in a way, I kind of think this

3270
02:45:38,160 --> 02:45:41,080
Speaker 1: might be a rebuke of Trump, because Trump is still

3271
02:45:41,080 --> 02:45:44,320
Speaker 1: the shadow, like, you know, leader of the Republican Party,

3272
02:45:44,360 --> 02:45:46,080
Speaker 1: and every time he pops up in the news, it's

3273
02:45:46,120 --> 02:45:49,120
Speaker 1: for some psychotic thing that he said or did. And

3274
02:45:49,200 --> 02:45:51,320
Speaker 1: I do think that there at some point there was

3275
02:45:51,360 --> 02:45:53,760
Speaker 1: a breaking point among the American public. Obviously, he didn't

3276
02:45:53,800 --> 02:45:55,920
Speaker 1: get reelected in twenty twenty, and I feel like he's

3277
02:45:55,920 --> 02:45:58,160
Speaker 1: only steadily in the eyes of the normy, the moderate,

3278
02:45:58,200 --> 02:46:00,520
Speaker 1: the independent, the average Joe and Jay, and he's gone

3279
02:46:00,520 --> 02:46:03,120
Speaker 1: down and down and down in their estimation. And to

3280
02:46:03,160 --> 02:46:05,960
Speaker 1: the extent that this party is still effectively tied to him,

3281
02:46:06,000 --> 02:46:08,280
Speaker 1: whether or not they even like want to be optically

3282
02:46:08,840 --> 02:46:11,320
Speaker 1: to the extent that they are, is that sort of like,

3283
02:46:11,440 --> 02:46:13,480
Speaker 1: you know, an anchor around their neck that they can't shake.

3284
02:46:13,640 --> 02:46:15,920
Speaker 1: I don't think it's the weird thing is I don't

3285
02:46:15,920 --> 02:46:18,440
Speaker 1: think it's a repudiation of Trump, it's a repudiation of

3286
02:46:18,480 --> 02:46:23,600
Speaker 1: the Republican Party because things trend this way things, and

3287
02:46:23,600 --> 02:46:27,080
Speaker 1: repudiation is like a little overstating impart the realitiest people

3288
02:46:27,200 --> 02:46:30,160
Speaker 1: don't like, which is in the polls where the country's

3289
02:46:30,240 --> 02:46:34,000
Speaker 1: going right now. But they don't trust Republicans to take

3290
02:46:34,040 --> 02:46:37,200
Speaker 1: the to take the will either, right, That's what I think.

3291
02:46:37,240 --> 02:46:40,440
Speaker 1: I think, that's that was. It has nothing that is

3292
02:46:40,520 --> 02:46:42,800
Speaker 1: Trump and it also isn't Trump. Well, let me let

3293
02:46:42,800 --> 02:46:48,080
Speaker 1: me temper our the positive vibes for Democrats with some

3294
02:46:48,160 --> 02:46:50,440
Speaker 1: new news out of Georgia, which is that Herschel Walker

3295
02:46:50,440 --> 02:46:53,840
Speaker 1: has now taken the lead. There you go, with sixty

3296
02:46:53,920 --> 02:46:56,680
Speaker 1: nine percent of votes in He's at forty nine point

3297
02:46:56,720 --> 02:46:59,960
Speaker 1: six percent under the just under that fifty percentage point mark.

3298
02:47:00,560 --> 02:47:03,160
Speaker 1: Rafael Warnick got forty eight point six percent, So they

3299
02:47:03,200 --> 02:47:05,520
Speaker 1: must have gotten a big jump dump of some you know,

3300
02:47:05,600 --> 02:47:08,600
Speaker 1: Republican area that's positive for them, or day of voting

3301
02:47:08,680 --> 02:47:12,280
Speaker 1: or whatever. And now the New York Times with their

3302
02:47:12,360 --> 02:47:17,160
Speaker 1: like needle situation, they actually have Walker as a sixty

3303
02:47:17,240 --> 02:47:21,680
Speaker 1: one percent chance of winning in Georgia, so they have

3304
02:47:21,800 --> 02:47:24,280
Speaker 1: Walker favored at this point. Now that doesn't say anything

3305
02:47:24,320 --> 02:47:26,440
Speaker 1: about whether it's going to go to the runoff whatever whatever.

3306
02:47:26,520 --> 02:47:28,800
Speaker 1: That's all And you know, sixty one percent is not

3307
02:47:28,840 --> 02:47:31,959
Speaker 1: saying he's it's a done deal. But that picture has

3308
02:47:32,040 --> 02:47:37,680
Speaker 1: just shifted significantly towards Republicans. They have right now Fetterman

3309
02:47:38,200 --> 02:47:41,199
Speaker 1: with a fifty three percent chance of winning in Pennsylvania Senate.

3310
02:47:41,240 --> 02:47:43,280
Speaker 1: So that one is still just like with the numbers

3311
02:47:43,280 --> 02:47:45,640
Speaker 1: we have in nobody has any idea how is it

3312
02:47:45,720 --> 02:47:48,959
Speaker 1: counted in Georgia, Like, so, where's the next dump coming from?

3313
02:47:50,120 --> 02:47:53,400
Speaker 1: It's it's a mixer, no I match. It also depends

3314
02:47:53,520 --> 02:47:58,120
Speaker 1: on individual counties because sometimes individual counties won't be reporting

3315
02:47:58,120 --> 02:48:00,000
Speaker 1: at a big I remember in twenty twenty we went

3316
02:48:00,080 --> 02:48:01,879
Speaker 1: through this with Fulton County and you know a bunch

3317
02:48:01,879 --> 02:48:04,240
Speaker 1: of these other places. So if it is really tied,

3318
02:48:04,280 --> 02:48:06,760
Speaker 1: it could still take a while. But you know, noteworthy

3319
02:48:06,840 --> 02:48:08,800
Speaker 1: herschel Walker is pulling ahead though he's got you know,

3320
02:48:08,920 --> 02:48:11,400
Speaker 1: fifty percent now. Yeah, one, I'm trying to remember if

3321
02:48:11,440 --> 02:48:15,200
Speaker 1: it was mail in election day more mail in in Georgia. Well,

3322
02:48:15,240 --> 02:48:18,280
Speaker 1: if there's mailing, there's a early vote and there's election day,

3323
02:48:18,360 --> 02:48:21,280
Speaker 1: right right, So in terms of happen in New Hampshire though,

3324
02:48:21,320 --> 02:48:23,800
Speaker 1: I mean, she looks pretty solid to hold on to

3325
02:48:23,879 --> 02:48:26,360
Speaker 1: that seat. They have her with a seventy six percent

3326
02:48:26,440 --> 02:48:29,360
Speaker 1: chance of winning based on what is in so far.

3327
02:48:29,560 --> 02:48:32,520
Speaker 1: So you know, the picture is still muddled. I think

3328
02:48:32,600 --> 02:48:34,600
Speaker 1: one thing we can say very clearly is the red

3329
02:48:34,600 --> 02:48:38,000
Speaker 1: tsunami did not material less. Now you could still end

3330
02:48:38,080 --> 02:48:40,800
Speaker 1: up with Republicans winning Georgia, you could still end up

3331
02:48:40,840 --> 02:48:43,560
Speaker 1: with Republicans winning Nevada. I still end up with them

3332
02:48:43,560 --> 02:48:46,920
Speaker 1: winning Pennsylvania. You still end up with them winning Arizona,

3333
02:48:47,200 --> 02:48:49,120
Speaker 1: and they would still look at that as that was

3334
02:48:49,160 --> 02:48:51,240
Speaker 1: a really good night for us. It is a good yeah,

3335
02:48:51,240 --> 02:48:53,320
Speaker 1: there's no question. So how as senators would that get

3336
02:48:53,360 --> 02:48:56,840
Speaker 1: them to that's fifty four? Fifty four is like three

3337
02:48:56,920 --> 02:48:58,560
Speaker 1: fifty four is the top end of what I write,

3338
02:48:58,560 --> 02:49:01,320
Speaker 1: So fifty three to fifty five. So if they won,

3339
02:49:01,520 --> 02:49:04,880
Speaker 1: and this is for David Shor's analysis on here. This

3340
02:49:04,920 --> 02:49:07,039
Speaker 1: is for David shores analysis, which is that if they

3341
02:49:07,320 --> 02:49:09,800
Speaker 1: get anywhere between fifty three and fifty five, they have

3342
02:49:10,000 --> 02:49:14,560
Speaker 1: a probability actually of getting a filibuster proof majority twenty

3343
02:49:14,600 --> 02:49:16,879
Speaker 1: twenty four in the event that Trump would win. So

3344
02:49:17,120 --> 02:49:20,240
Speaker 1: that's kind of interesting. However, if we do come out

3345
02:49:20,280 --> 02:49:24,920
Speaker 1: at fifty one or even at fifty, then that's a

3346
02:49:24,920 --> 02:49:28,880
Speaker 1: totally different story as to what exactly we can expect

3347
02:49:28,959 --> 02:49:31,760
Speaker 1: and whatnot. So I don't know. It's it's really really

3348
02:49:31,879 --> 02:49:34,959
Speaker 1: interesting to look at all this. Tim Alberta tweeting this,

3349
02:49:35,040 --> 02:49:37,600
Speaker 1: he's an analyst over at the Atlantic quote, this is

3350
02:49:37,640 --> 02:49:40,680
Speaker 1: not the red tsunami. In fact, it could be could

3351
02:49:40,760 --> 02:49:44,000
Speaker 1: be the best midterm cycle for an incumbent president since

3352
02:49:44,040 --> 02:49:46,280
Speaker 1: the Rally round the Flag election of two thousand and two,

3353
02:49:46,440 --> 02:49:49,200
Speaker 1: which if that's true, that would just be marpha. That

3354
02:49:49,200 --> 02:49:53,040
Speaker 1: would bust every narrative. That would bust literally every narrative.

3355
02:49:53,560 --> 02:49:57,760
Speaker 1: Moderate like that wouldn't take much, though, because I think

3356
02:49:57,840 --> 02:50:00,240
Speaker 1: the like all Biden would have to do it was

3357
02:50:00,280 --> 02:50:02,760
Speaker 1: like lose what twenty seats in the House or something

3358
02:50:02,879 --> 02:50:04,400
Speaker 1: or thirty seats and he would still be the best.

3359
02:50:04,440 --> 02:50:08,200
Speaker 1: I think you're right, Yeah, you're right. Which is that?

3360
02:50:08,280 --> 02:50:10,760
Speaker 1: And as many people are pointing out their replies, they're like, yeah,

3361
02:50:10,879 --> 02:50:13,320
Speaker 1: that would help though, because they've been waives every single

3362
02:50:13,400 --> 02:50:16,600
Speaker 1: time from two thousand to two thousand or two thousand

3363
02:50:16,640 --> 02:50:20,560
Speaker 1: and six to consider that for everything. So anyway, I

3364
02:50:20,600 --> 02:50:23,480
Speaker 1: think it is really interesting to consider it all within

3365
02:50:23,520 --> 02:50:25,680
Speaker 1: that framework. Chris, So, I have one more for you.

3366
02:50:25,680 --> 02:50:27,879
Speaker 1: Could I just throw this out here ahead or yeah?

3367
02:50:27,959 --> 02:50:32,160
Speaker 1: So Hocal in New York. Now, this Hocal versus Zelden

3368
02:50:32,240 --> 02:50:34,360
Speaker 1: governor race in New York is a real race. There's

3369
02:50:34,360 --> 02:50:37,720
Speaker 1: been a lot of talk about that recently. Hogle takes

3370
02:50:37,760 --> 02:50:41,840
Speaker 1: seventy five percent of the early vote in New York City.

3371
02:50:42,440 --> 02:50:45,400
Speaker 1: That doesn't tell us much New York City is like,

3372
02:50:45,440 --> 02:50:49,000
Speaker 1: I'm surprised it's not ninety two percent for HOCl. But

3373
02:50:50,600 --> 02:50:52,760
Speaker 1: I actually thought that said seventy five percent of early

3374
02:50:52,840 --> 02:50:54,800
Speaker 1: vote in New York, which is why I presented it

3375
02:50:54,800 --> 02:50:56,160
Speaker 1: to you, and then I read it, I said, oh,

3376
02:50:56,200 --> 02:51:01,160
Speaker 1: okay in the city. Well, I'm wasting everybody's time, Marshall, Kyle.

3377
02:51:01,280 --> 02:51:03,480
Speaker 1: We have Emily and Ryan on standby. Do you guys

3378
02:51:03,480 --> 02:51:06,800
Speaker 1: have final thoughts before we'll have a five minute period.

3379
02:51:06,840 --> 02:51:08,560
Speaker 1: We're just going to play some campaign ads that are

3380
02:51:08,600 --> 02:51:10,960
Speaker 1: closing for all of you while we get them all

3381
02:51:11,000 --> 02:51:13,080
Speaker 1: in here. And also, I need another Liquid death to

3382
02:51:13,120 --> 02:51:17,600
Speaker 1: part to murder my thirst. I'm sorry, by the way, Yeah,

3383
02:51:17,640 --> 02:51:20,240
Speaker 1: by the way, they don't. They gave us some free

3384
02:51:20,280 --> 02:51:23,039
Speaker 1: Liquid death and I genuinely enjoy it. So thank you

3385
02:51:23,600 --> 02:51:26,720
Speaker 1: to final thoughts. One shout out to the viewer who

3386
02:51:26,760 --> 02:51:30,160
Speaker 1: called out the surface. We are dozens of us, but

3387
02:51:30,200 --> 02:51:33,200
Speaker 1: we are strong and we love our Microsoft surfaces too.

3388
02:51:33,320 --> 02:51:37,360
Speaker 1: Though serious note, I think our early call that this

3389
02:51:37,440 --> 02:51:40,000
Speaker 1: wasn't a red wave was kind of vindicated. But no

3390
02:51:40,040 --> 02:51:42,960
Speaker 1: matter what happens tonight, I think it was clear when

3391
02:51:43,000 --> 02:51:46,760
Speaker 1: we started this recording, I just didn't feel like you're

3392
02:51:46,760 --> 02:51:49,800
Speaker 1: going to have like this like transformation, like red wave

3393
02:51:50,120 --> 02:51:53,240
Speaker 1: election that many people on Twitter especially, we've been tweeting around. Yeah.

3394
02:51:53,280 --> 02:51:56,240
Speaker 1: So that's that's just gonna takeaway. It's just not going

3395
02:51:56,320 --> 02:51:59,040
Speaker 1: to be We are not going to talk with this

3396
02:51:59,400 --> 02:52:02,440
Speaker 1: election the way we talk about twenty ten, nineteen ninety. Definitely,

3397
02:52:02,480 --> 02:52:07,279
Speaker 1: that is a really important not yet Barack Obama got Yeah.

3398
02:52:07,320 --> 02:52:10,520
Speaker 1: So the other day on my show, I made a

3399
02:52:10,520 --> 02:52:14,200
Speaker 1: similar argument that I want to just be wishy washing

3400
02:52:14,200 --> 02:52:15,880
Speaker 1: an agnostic out and I said, I don't what's gonna happen.

3401
02:52:15,920 --> 02:52:17,640
Speaker 1: Let wait to see, and in part that's what we're

3402
02:52:17,640 --> 02:52:19,200
Speaker 1: doing here. But also at the same time, I said,

3403
02:52:19,240 --> 02:52:20,800
Speaker 1: if you had a gun to my head, I'd say

3404
02:52:20,840 --> 02:52:23,879
Speaker 1: fifty one or fifty two in the Senate for Republicans

3405
02:52:24,240 --> 02:52:28,039
Speaker 1: and they'll pick up maybe twenty twenty five seats in

3406
02:52:28,080 --> 02:52:30,879
Speaker 1: the House, which puts it significantly below the twenty ten

3407
02:52:31,760 --> 02:52:34,440
Speaker 1: red wave. So and as of right now, it looks

3408
02:52:34,440 --> 02:52:37,560
Speaker 1: like that's what's panning out. But you know, it ain't

3409
02:52:37,560 --> 02:52:40,800
Speaker 1: over until it's over. And it's very possible that that

3410
02:52:41,200 --> 02:52:43,119
Speaker 1: it looks that prediction looks good now, but it's very

3411
02:52:43,120 --> 02:52:45,720
Speaker 1: possible that it doesn't materialize. And again, I think the

3412
02:52:45,720 --> 02:52:47,720
Speaker 1: reason why this was such a difficult election to get

3413
02:52:47,879 --> 02:52:49,840
Speaker 1: to get our finger on the pulls of is because

3414
02:52:50,280 --> 02:52:53,480
Speaker 1: there's just so many complicating factors. The inflation thing, the

3415
02:52:53,520 --> 02:52:55,920
Speaker 1: crime thing. I mean, only nineteen percent of the country

3416
02:52:55,920 --> 02:52:57,560
Speaker 1: thinks for going on the right track. I mean, this

3417
02:52:57,600 --> 02:52:59,240
Speaker 1: is something that it should have been a schill lacking

3418
02:52:59,280 --> 02:53:01,680
Speaker 1: for the Democrats. But when you add in the fifty

3419
02:53:01,680 --> 02:53:04,440
Speaker 1: two percent of the Republicans running deny the election, and

3420
02:53:04,480 --> 02:53:06,959
Speaker 1: you add in Trump, still I think an anchor around

3421
02:53:06,959 --> 02:53:09,800
Speaker 1: their neck. You add in Biden, student loan dead reduction

3422
02:53:09,920 --> 02:53:13,080
Speaker 1: and Roby Wad being overturned, it's like, I don't fucking

3423
02:53:13,080 --> 02:53:15,440
Speaker 1: know what's gonna happen. We're all just waiting. And I

3424
02:53:15,440 --> 02:53:17,480
Speaker 1: say this every time. This is why I love election night.

3425
02:53:17,560 --> 02:53:19,360
Speaker 1: I like to be humble, but beyond that, like I

3426
02:53:19,440 --> 02:53:22,640
Speaker 1: like to see what people think. Yeah, it always surprises

3427
02:53:22,720 --> 02:53:24,720
Speaker 1: us no matter what. And I think that has been

3428
02:53:24,800 --> 02:53:28,760
Speaker 1: vindicated tonight. Yep. Indeed. All right, guys, Okay, guys, thank

3429
02:53:28,800 --> 02:53:31,920
Speaker 1: you both so much. You both did a fantastic, fantastic job.

3430
02:53:31,920 --> 02:53:34,520
Speaker 1: All Right, everybody, give us five minutes. We're going to

3431
02:53:34,560 --> 02:53:37,120
Speaker 1: play some mads closing pitches from all the candidates for

3432
02:53:37,160 --> 02:53:38,640
Speaker 1: all of you, and we'll be right back here at

3433
02:53:38,680 --> 02:53:40,560
Speaker 1: the desk with Emily and Ryan. Let's get to a

3434
02:53:40,600 --> 02:53:43,560
Speaker 1: control room. Let's roll. It's crazy. Crystal was just saying

3435
02:53:43,600 --> 02:53:46,440
Speaker 1: she wants Tim Ryan to run for president. Right, that's

3436
02:53:46,520 --> 02:53:51,720
Speaker 1: right again, you'll actually really been the whole nation. That's

3437
02:53:51,720 --> 02:53:54,520
Speaker 1: a great triviat question. Did Tim Ryan run for president?

3438
02:53:54,640 --> 02:53:57,280
Speaker 1: You know, it's funny. I was doing a monologue about

3439
02:53:57,280 --> 02:54:00,160
Speaker 1: like Biden twenty twenty four, and I was remembering of

3440
02:54:00,200 --> 02:54:02,200
Speaker 1: the people that ran, and I was like, wow, we

3441
02:54:02,400 --> 02:54:05,840
Speaker 1: just never heard from them. Again. It trivia thing like

3442
02:54:05,879 --> 02:54:08,080
Speaker 1: did this like of twenty different people, did they run

3443
02:54:08,120 --> 02:54:11,160
Speaker 1: for president? I remember John de Lady, Oh, I do

3444
02:54:11,280 --> 02:54:14,400
Speaker 1: remember that. Unfortunately, Crystal, if I recall, we were forced

3445
02:54:14,440 --> 02:54:16,640
Speaker 1: to interview him like twelve times over at rising and

3446
02:54:16,680 --> 02:54:19,800
Speaker 1: I like the thirteenth time, I was like, they were good.

3447
02:54:19,920 --> 02:54:23,760
Speaker 1: They were good. I cannot sit with this man. Okay,

3448
02:54:24,240 --> 02:54:27,040
Speaker 1: all of that aside. Emily Ryan, you guys have been

3449
02:54:27,080 --> 02:54:29,760
Speaker 1: watching the results, You've been taking it in. What you

3450
02:54:29,920 --> 02:54:31,520
Speaker 1: what do you guys top takeaways? Emily, what do you

3451
02:54:31,520 --> 02:54:34,120
Speaker 1: think so far? So I agree with much of what

3452
02:54:34,160 --> 02:54:36,680
Speaker 1: has been said that what I think right now is

3453
02:54:36,680 --> 02:54:38,960
Speaker 1: happening is we're teetering between whether this is a good

3454
02:54:39,040 --> 02:54:41,840
Speaker 1: night for Republicans or a great night for Republicans. And

3455
02:54:41,879 --> 02:54:44,880
Speaker 1: I agree with what Kyle and Marshall were saying as

3456
02:54:44,920 --> 02:54:47,680
Speaker 1: they were giving their final thoughts, which is that it's

3457
02:54:47,800 --> 02:54:50,680
Speaker 1: looking more like this is just a good night for Republicans,

3458
02:54:50,720 --> 02:54:53,240
Speaker 1: Like this is politics as usual when you have an

3459
02:54:53,320 --> 02:54:56,600
Speaker 1: unpopular president and a bad economy. This is just going

3460
02:54:56,680 --> 02:54:59,120
Speaker 1: to be a sort of an easy win for Republicans

3461
02:54:59,160 --> 02:55:01,640
Speaker 1: and they're going to stop there. I do think there

3462
02:55:01,640 --> 02:55:04,360
Speaker 1: are some interesting indications. I think people should be watching

3463
02:55:04,400 --> 02:55:06,840
Speaker 1: Texas really closely. The real Grand Valley slager. You know

3464
02:55:06,879 --> 02:55:09,000
Speaker 1: all about it. But one of the things that stands

3465
02:55:09,040 --> 02:55:12,440
Speaker 1: out to me is where Maria Alvirs Salazar one reelection

3466
02:55:12,959 --> 02:55:16,480
Speaker 1: in Florida's twenty seventh district, which was redrawn a bit,

3467
02:55:16,520 --> 02:55:18,320
Speaker 1: but redrawn a bit still if you look at daily

3468
02:55:18,400 --> 02:55:21,039
Speaker 1: coosis metrics, withdrawn a bit to the point where it

3469
02:55:21,120 --> 02:55:24,000
Speaker 1: was still a razor thin margin for Donald Trump in

3470
02:55:24,080 --> 02:55:27,879
Speaker 1: a twenty twenty election. She that was an absolute blowout.

3471
02:55:28,160 --> 02:55:31,080
Speaker 1: And so what we're talking about there is the Hispanic vote.

3472
02:55:31,160 --> 02:55:35,400
Speaker 1: We're talking about whether Republicans made inroads, and that's particularly

3473
02:55:35,400 --> 02:55:37,800
Speaker 1: with the Cuban vote. Of course, in Miami, Marie al

3474
02:55:37,879 --> 02:55:42,760
Speaker 1: Virus Salazar is a long time Telemundo person. But if

3475
02:55:42,800 --> 02:55:45,720
Speaker 1: we're looking at that race, I then want to see

3476
02:55:45,720 --> 02:55:48,280
Speaker 1: what happens. I want to see what Texas thirty four

3477
02:55:48,400 --> 02:55:51,080
Speaker 1: looks like with Myra Flores's reelection. I want to see

3478
02:55:51,080 --> 02:55:53,760
Speaker 1: if and that's a redrawn district too. So there's where

3479
02:55:53,760 --> 02:55:56,240
Speaker 1: I'm looking at, particularly because I think if those indications

3480
02:55:56,360 --> 02:55:58,840
Speaker 1: come in, we might see different things in the Oregon

3481
02:55:58,920 --> 02:56:01,880
Speaker 1: governor's race. We might see different things in Wisconsin. So

3482
02:56:02,600 --> 02:56:05,160
Speaker 1: I still don't think we know whether it's a good

3483
02:56:05,240 --> 02:56:07,120
Speaker 1: night or a great night for Republicans, although I do

3484
02:56:07,240 --> 02:56:09,800
Speaker 1: think where things stand now just good. Yeah, I think

3485
02:56:09,840 --> 02:56:11,199
Speaker 1: you're I think you're right. What do you think Brian,

3486
02:56:12,080 --> 02:56:14,200
Speaker 1: so well, it's a good night so far for weed

3487
02:56:14,240 --> 02:56:17,520
Speaker 1: and psychedelics. Okay, so in other words, it's a great

3488
02:56:17,600 --> 02:56:20,920
Speaker 1: night for Ryan Grew. First, there are two. There are

3489
02:56:20,959 --> 02:56:25,160
Speaker 1: two key abortion referendums that I mean, there are several.

3490
02:56:25,560 --> 02:56:29,040
Speaker 1: There's Vermont, which guess what it's going to win, California

3491
02:56:29,120 --> 02:56:31,560
Speaker 1: guess what that one's going to win. But the ones

3492
02:56:31,600 --> 02:56:34,080
Speaker 1: people were looking at, we're Michigan and Kentucky, and so

3493
02:56:34,240 --> 02:56:38,040
Speaker 1: far voters in both of those states are overwhelmingly approving

3494
02:56:38,160 --> 02:56:41,160
Speaker 1: abortion rights. It could it could still swing, but I

3495
02:56:41,240 --> 02:56:47,720
Speaker 1: think Kentucky following Kansas has to make people think differently

3496
02:56:47,760 --> 02:56:51,200
Speaker 1: about where this country is when it comes to abortion rights.

3497
02:56:51,280 --> 02:56:55,800
Speaker 1: I think not only those ballot initiatives, but also these

3498
02:56:55,920 --> 02:56:59,160
Speaker 1: results have to make people think differently about abortion rights

3499
02:56:59,240 --> 02:57:01,680
Speaker 1: because I mean, I was among the people who were

3500
02:57:01,760 --> 02:57:04,040
Speaker 1: out there like screaming and beating my childs Like you

3501
02:57:04,160 --> 02:57:06,200
Speaker 1: have to talk about the freaking economy, Like where is

3502
02:57:06,280 --> 02:57:08,800
Speaker 1: your economic message? You can't run every ad on abortion.

3503
02:57:10,280 --> 02:57:12,760
Speaker 1: Maybe you can run every ad on abortion, because I mean,

3504
02:57:12,879 --> 02:57:14,520
Speaker 1: right now, yeah, we don't know. There are a lot

3505
02:57:14,560 --> 02:57:17,000
Speaker 1: of seats down et cetera, et cetera. It's definitely not

3506
02:57:17,120 --> 02:57:20,440
Speaker 1: the red tsunami. I mean, Democrats won two out of

3507
02:57:20,480 --> 02:57:23,840
Speaker 1: the three swing districts in Virginia. There was a lot

3508
02:57:23,920 --> 02:57:27,200
Speaker 1: of Republican opium around New Hampshire. That bulldeck was going

3509
02:57:27,240 --> 02:57:29,120
Speaker 1: to pull that one out back to win one of

3510
02:57:29,160 --> 02:57:31,520
Speaker 1: those houses is out. Yeah, they were going to win

3511
02:57:31,560 --> 02:57:33,160
Speaker 1: one of the houseas they thought they were going to

3512
02:57:33,200 --> 02:57:35,080
Speaker 1: win a house seat in Rhode Island. I mean, so

3513
02:57:35,480 --> 02:57:41,760
Speaker 1: the maximalist red tsunami did not happen. Now, do Republicans

3514
02:57:41,879 --> 02:57:45,240
Speaker 1: manage to cobble together a bear majority in the Senate,

3515
02:57:45,360 --> 02:57:48,280
Speaker 1: that's possible. They're certainly going to get control of the House,

3516
02:57:48,320 --> 02:57:50,640
Speaker 1: there's no doubt about that. But you know, Emily, you

3517
02:57:50,720 --> 02:57:52,560
Speaker 1: said like, oh, this is just what happens when the

3518
02:57:52,600 --> 02:57:55,000
Speaker 1: economy's bad. In the present's approval rating is in the

3519
02:57:55,080 --> 02:57:58,520
Speaker 1: low forties. No, what happens normally when you have that

3520
02:57:58,600 --> 02:58:01,560
Speaker 1: set of affairs is is the red student, the shellacking,

3521
02:58:01,640 --> 02:58:04,680
Speaker 1: the what you normally get in you know, seventy percent

3522
02:58:04,879 --> 02:58:07,600
Speaker 1: wrong track and everybody like, oh my god, the economy's

3523
02:58:07,680 --> 02:58:10,360
Speaker 1: terrible and gas prices are high and inflation is out

3524
02:58:10,400 --> 02:58:12,320
Speaker 1: of control, and I really don't like this president. I

3525
02:58:12,400 --> 02:58:14,720
Speaker 1: really don't want him to run for president again, you

3526
02:58:14,879 --> 02:58:19,560
Speaker 1: get a shellacking. So to me, what's really striking is

3527
02:58:19,680 --> 02:58:23,080
Speaker 1: that that hasn't materialized. And I think it's because of

3528
02:58:23,320 --> 02:58:26,800
Speaker 1: two things. I think it is, like, obviously, abortion, you know,

3529
02:58:27,160 --> 02:58:30,960
Speaker 1: is important here, and I think abortion did contribute to

3530
02:58:31,080 --> 02:58:33,720
Speaker 1: some of the problems Republicans had in terms of the

3531
02:58:34,080 --> 02:58:36,720
Speaker 1: candidates that they chose and the sense that not just

3532
02:58:36,879 --> 02:58:40,119
Speaker 1: on abortion, but on a whole raft of issue, these

3533
02:58:40,240 --> 02:58:42,680
Speaker 1: people are freaking crazy and they're out to lunch. And

3534
02:58:42,720 --> 02:58:44,879
Speaker 1: I might not be that abby with the Democrats in charge,

3535
02:58:44,920 --> 02:58:46,720
Speaker 1: but I don't think I can hand off the ball

3536
02:58:46,840 --> 02:58:48,560
Speaker 1: to these people. Do you think. I think it's interesting

3537
02:58:48,600 --> 02:58:50,920
Speaker 1: because so Ryan and I were just on Megan Kelly

3538
02:58:51,160 --> 02:58:53,480
Speaker 1: and Ryan was talking about you you mean such an

3539
02:58:53,480 --> 02:58:57,400
Speaker 1: interesting point, which is that the youth vote in twenty

3540
02:58:57,440 --> 02:59:00,040
Speaker 1: eighteen was really crucial for Democrats, and we actually I

3541
02:59:00,200 --> 02:59:02,400
Speaker 1: still don't know if the youth vote in twenty twenty

3542
02:59:02,440 --> 02:59:05,040
Speaker 1: two will be crucial to Democrats, particularly because of this

3543
02:59:05,160 --> 02:59:08,040
Speaker 1: issue of abortion and the reason and I think this

3544
02:59:08,160 --> 02:59:10,360
Speaker 1: gets lost in sort of the belt white chatter, especially

3545
02:59:10,400 --> 02:59:13,640
Speaker 1: the last couple of weeks that Democrats ran hard on abortion.

3546
02:59:14,120 --> 02:59:16,840
Speaker 1: It's not just because they're completely out of touch, which

3547
02:59:16,879 --> 02:59:19,840
Speaker 1: as well, though they are, they are completely out of touch.

3548
02:59:19,920 --> 02:59:23,360
Speaker 1: It's not just that, it's also though, because of turnout.

3549
02:59:23,680 --> 02:59:26,480
Speaker 1: Midterm elections are about turnout. And if you think you

3550
02:59:26,560 --> 02:59:29,680
Speaker 1: can get your base to turn out for democracy and abortion,

3551
02:59:30,200 --> 02:59:32,600
Speaker 1: because those are the people you do not want sitting

3552
02:59:32,680 --> 02:59:35,039
Speaker 1: on the couch come election night, then you are going

3553
02:59:35,080 --> 02:59:37,440
Speaker 1: to run a bunch of ads on democracy and abortion.

3554
02:59:37,600 --> 02:59:40,120
Speaker 1: Now did they overdo it? I think very clearly the

3555
02:59:40,240 --> 02:59:42,520
Speaker 1: answer to that is yes, they didn't have a good

3556
02:59:42,560 --> 02:59:45,480
Speaker 1: economic message. I think though that's why they were running

3557
02:59:45,520 --> 02:59:48,680
Speaker 1: on those things. And the other point that I'll make is,

3558
02:59:48,760 --> 02:59:51,000
Speaker 1: like I guess I was talking about the context of

3559
02:59:51,080 --> 02:59:54,120
Speaker 1: the realignment. So this bigger conversation about whether it's a

3560
02:59:54,200 --> 02:59:58,680
Speaker 1: great night for Republicans make a generation defined it right right, right,

3561
02:59:58,760 --> 03:00:00,960
Speaker 1: Like if this is a real turning point pivot for

3562
03:00:01,120 --> 03:00:05,800
Speaker 1: Republicans because you see, for instance, in roads with black

3563
03:00:05,840 --> 03:00:08,040
Speaker 1: and Hispanic voters, like I think we should be looking

3564
03:00:08,080 --> 03:00:11,080
Speaker 1: really closely at Milwaukee and Philadelphia. It's not like the

3565
03:00:11,160 --> 03:00:13,040
Speaker 1: black vote in Milwaukee and Philadelphia is going to go

3566
03:00:13,080 --> 03:00:17,400
Speaker 1: to Republicans, but are the margins slimmer, then they should

3567
03:00:17,480 --> 03:00:21,760
Speaker 1: be for a midterm election for Democrats. That's those are

3568
03:00:21,800 --> 03:00:23,880
Speaker 1: the sort of things that I think will will make

3569
03:00:23,920 --> 03:00:26,520
Speaker 1: it a quote great night for Republicans if that's what

3570
03:00:26,600 --> 03:00:29,320
Speaker 1: they're looking at. But no, I think that's a good point, Christal.

3571
03:00:29,440 --> 03:00:31,520
Speaker 1: I've got a piece of data here to add into

3572
03:00:31,600 --> 03:00:34,360
Speaker 1: the conversation. This is from Nate con of the New

3573
03:00:34,440 --> 03:00:38,199
Speaker 1: York Times. He says, it's still early, obviously, but Fetterman

3574
03:00:38,400 --> 03:00:42,080
Speaker 1: is running ahead of Biden the Pennsylvania counties that seem

3575
03:00:42,280 --> 03:00:46,200
Speaker 1: like they may be complete that. I mean, if that

3576
03:00:46,360 --> 03:00:50,360
Speaker 1: is running out of Biden, then he's gonna win. And now,

3577
03:00:50,480 --> 03:00:53,400
Speaker 1: on the other hand, maybe Oz dramatically outperforms Trump in

3578
03:00:53,520 --> 03:00:55,760
Speaker 1: the red counties, and that sort of polarization is certainly

3579
03:00:55,840 --> 03:00:59,320
Speaker 1: something that we have seen. But you know, the other

3580
03:00:59,440 --> 03:01:02,400
Speaker 1: thing that Conas said is it looks like Democrats are

3581
03:01:02,440 --> 03:01:05,720
Speaker 1: running about a point ahead of our expectations outside of Florida.

3582
03:01:05,800 --> 03:01:09,000
Speaker 1: So put Florida aside. I mean, I guess the question

3583
03:01:09,360 --> 03:01:13,560
Speaker 1: for Republicans is, you know, maybe as you get further

3584
03:01:13,680 --> 03:01:15,880
Speaker 1: out west, maybe there is a different dynamic. Maybe in

3585
03:01:15,959 --> 03:01:18,960
Speaker 1: states where you have a more significant Latino population, maybe

3586
03:01:19,000 --> 03:01:21,320
Speaker 1: you have more of that realignment, more of those shifts

3587
03:01:21,840 --> 03:01:24,320
Speaker 1: and so even though they you know, it looks like

3588
03:01:24,400 --> 03:01:27,760
Speaker 1: Georgia probably going to a runoff, Pennsylvania, who knows. At

3589
03:01:27,800 --> 03:01:30,800
Speaker 1: this point, New Hampshire certainly totally off the table. Do

3590
03:01:30,920 --> 03:01:33,360
Speaker 1: they pick up in Arizona, do they pick up a Nevada?

3591
03:01:33,440 --> 03:01:35,800
Speaker 1: What do those pieces look like? Yeah? And I think

3592
03:01:35,840 --> 03:01:39,720
Speaker 1: this also goes to the messaging and reality, Like we

3593
03:01:40,240 --> 03:01:44,520
Speaker 1: focus so much on the way that candidates are messaging

3594
03:01:44,680 --> 03:01:48,440
Speaker 1: what Democrats are talking about, but that's only a small

3595
03:01:48,480 --> 03:01:51,360
Speaker 1: amount of the input that voters have. You know, very true,

3596
03:01:51,520 --> 03:01:54,440
Speaker 1: voters are filling up their gas tank. Voters are also

3597
03:01:54,560 --> 03:01:58,400
Speaker 1: talking to people all the time about abortion rights, but

3598
03:01:58,840 --> 03:02:02,199
Speaker 1: things that are in the new education about education, about

3599
03:02:02,200 --> 03:02:04,480
Speaker 1: the school, the school's question. We'll see how some of

3600
03:02:04,520 --> 03:02:07,600
Speaker 1: that shakes out, but it you know, it comes down

3601
03:02:07,640 --> 03:02:10,800
Speaker 1: to sailings. Like when people say that the most important

3602
03:02:10,800 --> 03:02:12,680
Speaker 1: issue to them is inflation, does that mean that that's

3603
03:02:12,680 --> 03:02:15,440
Speaker 1: what they're hearing in the news. But if somebody is

3604
03:02:15,440 --> 03:02:18,480
Speaker 1: saying the most important issue to me is abortion and

3605
03:02:18,800 --> 03:02:21,080
Speaker 1: it's overwhelmingly for Democrats, that mean these are people who

3606
03:02:21,120 --> 03:02:23,560
Speaker 1: are coming out and voting who otherwise wouldn't have voted.

3607
03:02:23,680 --> 03:02:26,480
Speaker 1: And it doesn't actually matter whether Democrats had message on it,

3608
03:02:26,600 --> 03:02:30,040
Speaker 1: Like for people in Pennsylvania the last month or so,

3609
03:02:30,640 --> 03:02:33,279
Speaker 1: I don't understand how a candidate could break through on anything.

3610
03:02:33,720 --> 03:02:37,240
Speaker 1: Like every time you turn on the TV, it's eight

3611
03:02:37,320 --> 03:02:39,080
Speaker 1: ads and then it's back to the show you're watching,

3612
03:02:39,680 --> 03:02:43,200
Speaker 1: and then the Phillies lose, the Phillies lose, altho all

3613
03:02:43,240 --> 03:02:46,440
Speaker 1: the Eagles are still undefeated, and you're like, you, what

3614
03:02:46,480 --> 03:02:48,800
Speaker 1: am I even taking from this? And Yeah, well I

3615
03:02:48,879 --> 03:02:51,320
Speaker 1: was gonna say. Crystal's point about the Nate Cone data

3616
03:02:51,480 --> 03:02:53,760
Speaker 1: is I think really really important because a lot of

3617
03:02:53,840 --> 03:02:56,000
Speaker 1: what we pulled here with our elements, it's looking at

3618
03:02:56,000 --> 03:02:59,199
Speaker 1: the predictions from five point thirty eight and RCP and Republicans.

3619
03:02:59,520 --> 03:03:01,280
Speaker 1: Just as at last couple of days, I can tell

3620
03:03:01,280 --> 03:03:03,600
Speaker 1: you talking to conservative sources, Sager, you may have had

3621
03:03:03,800 --> 03:03:08,560
Speaker 1: a similar experience. They were actually expecting that the polls

3622
03:03:08,600 --> 03:03:13,720
Speaker 1: were still under I was estimated Republicans. So like when

3623
03:03:13,720 --> 03:03:16,480
Speaker 1: you're looking at Oregon, when you're looking at New York.

3624
03:03:16,760 --> 03:03:19,680
Speaker 1: So if the polls are underestimating Lee Zelden, is it

3625
03:03:19,800 --> 03:03:22,960
Speaker 1: possible that Zelden wins by two to three percent? That's

3626
03:03:23,000 --> 03:03:26,240
Speaker 1: what Republicans were going in tonight to tonight thinking and

3627
03:03:26,360 --> 03:03:28,600
Speaker 1: a lot of people on the right were building into

3628
03:03:28,680 --> 03:03:31,960
Speaker 1: these numbers, perhaps a couple two three extra points for

3629
03:03:32,040 --> 03:03:34,840
Speaker 1: Republicans in places like deep blue places like New York

3630
03:03:34,879 --> 03:03:37,800
Speaker 1: and Oregon. And if that doesn't pan out, if Democrats

3631
03:03:37,879 --> 03:03:42,360
Speaker 1: actually overperform the polls, that is a very big story.

3632
03:03:42,480 --> 03:03:45,040
Speaker 1: I think you're right, yes, well, and we know in

3633
03:03:45,160 --> 03:03:48,400
Speaker 1: one state they did, and that's New Hampshire. New Hampshire

3634
03:03:48,680 --> 03:03:50,760
Speaker 1: is the state that where we probably have the clearest

3635
03:03:50,800 --> 03:03:53,680
Speaker 1: picture right now because they have limited early vote, because

3636
03:03:53,840 --> 03:03:55,920
Speaker 1: most of the vote it is in because Maggie Hassen

3637
03:03:56,040 --> 03:03:59,920
Speaker 1: is like consistently outperforming Biden in county after county after county.

3638
03:04:00,640 --> 03:04:03,760
Speaker 1: Biden won New Hampshire by seven points. Right, the polls

3639
03:04:03,840 --> 03:04:06,720
Speaker 1: did not have Maggie Hassen up by anywhere near seven points.

3640
03:04:06,760 --> 03:04:09,040
Speaker 1: Even the most optimistic polls for her down the stretch

3641
03:04:09,080 --> 03:04:11,959
Speaker 1: hot are up by like two. So at least when

3642
03:04:12,000 --> 03:04:15,640
Speaker 1: you have a significantly college educated electorate, which is what

3643
03:04:15,800 --> 03:04:18,920
Speaker 1: you have disproportionately in the state of New Hampshire, you

3644
03:04:19,120 --> 03:04:23,040
Speaker 1: had a dynamic of them actually underestimating Democratic support. We

3645
03:04:23,080 --> 03:04:25,640
Speaker 1: can show that number twelve guys, if you can please

3646
03:04:26,040 --> 03:04:28,680
Speaker 1: that's our New Hampshire element, just to give everybody some insight.

3647
03:04:28,760 --> 03:04:30,279
Speaker 1: This is gonna be a fun game in the future,

3648
03:04:30,400 --> 03:04:33,360
Speaker 1: just looking at the exact call so you can see there,

3649
03:04:33,440 --> 03:04:36,760
Speaker 1: which is that now the final RCP average had Maggie

3650
03:04:36,800 --> 03:04:39,800
Speaker 1: Hassen only up by one point, and while the five

3651
03:04:39,920 --> 03:04:42,520
Speaker 1: thirty eight average did have her in seventy two in

3652
03:04:42,640 --> 03:04:45,400
Speaker 1: a twenty eight percent, they also still pointed to a

3653
03:04:45,520 --> 03:04:48,360
Speaker 1: much narrower race. And that doesn't yet seem so like

3654
03:04:48,760 --> 03:04:50,920
Speaker 1: right now the data that we have is forty one

3655
03:04:51,000 --> 03:04:54,000
Speaker 1: percent of the vote is in in New Hampshire, fifty

3656
03:04:54,080 --> 03:04:57,880
Speaker 1: six percent Maggie Hassen, forty two percent Bolda. Now, some

3657
03:04:58,040 --> 03:05:00,480
Speaker 1: of that could come back, you know for Bolda as

3658
03:05:00,640 --> 03:05:02,920
Speaker 1: some of the later I think more rural areas are

3659
03:05:02,959 --> 03:05:05,440
Speaker 1: the ones where he's expected to have support. But the

3660
03:05:05,640 --> 03:05:09,160
Speaker 1: blowout scenario, which is what I'll be honest, I really

3661
03:05:09,240 --> 03:05:11,879
Speaker 1: thought that it was a very distinct possibility that Michael

3662
03:05:11,920 --> 03:05:15,360
Speaker 1: Ben not Michael Bennett, losing necessarily. But I didn't think

3663
03:05:15,360 --> 03:05:17,200
Speaker 1: they would just call it for him, you know, like

3664
03:05:17,800 --> 03:05:22,520
Speaker 1: that Patty Murray like sweating it right exactly. I thought

3665
03:05:22,600 --> 03:05:25,360
Speaker 1: she was going on. I thought she would believe that

3666
03:05:25,400 --> 03:05:26,920
Speaker 1: was closed. Yeah, I thought she would win, but you

3667
03:05:26,959 --> 03:05:29,200
Speaker 1: win by to remember who's the new Jersey governor. What

3668
03:05:29,280 --> 03:05:31,160
Speaker 1: was the guy's name, Phil Murphy? Yeah, and he won

3669
03:05:31,240 --> 03:05:34,640
Speaker 1: by three everyone point. I thinks he's going to run

3670
03:05:34,680 --> 03:05:39,920
Speaker 1: for Presidentemross elimination. Yeah, I mean, I I do think

3671
03:05:40,240 --> 03:05:44,520
Speaker 1: like the reason that this election midterm, I think we

3672
03:05:44,600 --> 03:05:47,879
Speaker 1: can already say it is definitely not a schlacking. It's

3673
03:05:48,040 --> 03:05:51,760
Speaker 1: definitely different than what normally happens when you have a

3674
03:05:51,840 --> 03:05:54,360
Speaker 1: party in power. And I really attribute that to the

3675
03:05:54,440 --> 03:05:58,720
Speaker 1: fact that Democrats were just as energized as Republicans normally.

3676
03:05:58,879 --> 03:06:01,400
Speaker 1: The reason you have the show lacking is because the

3677
03:06:01,520 --> 03:06:04,800
Speaker 1: party in powers voters are sort of dispirited, hasn't really

3678
03:06:04,840 --> 03:06:07,560
Speaker 1: been everything that they expected. They're kind of disappointed. They

3679
03:06:07,560 --> 03:06:09,800
Speaker 1: don't really love these people anymore, and they're like, fuck it,

3680
03:06:09,879 --> 03:06:12,520
Speaker 1: I'm just staying home this time. And I do think

3681
03:06:12,600 --> 03:06:14,640
Speaker 1: that this is, you know, this is a Trump effect.

3682
03:06:15,480 --> 03:06:19,160
Speaker 1: There is a sense of existential dread and doom and

3683
03:06:19,400 --> 03:06:22,240
Speaker 1: energy and whatever going on with the Democratic base. The

3684
03:06:22,320 --> 03:06:25,480
Speaker 1: abortion ruling certainly fuels that, and so that's causing them

3685
03:06:25,560 --> 03:06:27,800
Speaker 1: to turn up out at the polls in the same

3686
03:06:28,000 --> 03:06:31,720
Speaker 1: margins of you know, enthusiasm as Republicans, And I do

3687
03:06:31,840 --> 03:06:35,439
Speaker 1: think that that's why this election looks different than midterms

3688
03:06:36,040 --> 03:06:39,120
Speaker 1: when you have the party in power, and you have

3689
03:06:39,240 --> 03:06:41,680
Speaker 1: a bad economy, and you have inflation, and you have

3690
03:06:41,800 --> 03:06:45,920
Speaker 1: a low presidential approverating all those things, and yet Democrats

3691
03:06:46,040 --> 03:06:48,840
Speaker 1: might still hold on to the Senate. Like that is

3692
03:06:48,959 --> 03:06:51,320
Speaker 1: really that's really different. I think that that's a big

3693
03:06:51,400 --> 03:06:53,520
Speaker 1: part of it. But also the and and also the

3694
03:06:53,640 --> 03:06:58,800
Speaker 1: changing Democratic coalition changes that. So in the eighties and nineties, sixties,

3695
03:06:58,840 --> 03:07:01,720
Speaker 1: seventy eighty ninety, when Democrats are still like, if you're

3696
03:07:01,720 --> 03:07:04,240
Speaker 1: a working class voter, you're a Democrat first, and if

3697
03:07:04,240 --> 03:07:06,840
Speaker 1: you're not, then you have questions to ans for like, yeah,

3698
03:07:07,000 --> 03:07:10,400
Speaker 1: why are you voting for these Nelson Rockefet's Republicans, And

3699
03:07:10,760 --> 03:07:13,520
Speaker 1: those types of voters show up in presidential years and

3700
03:07:13,560 --> 03:07:16,400
Speaker 1: then drop off in midterms. Now they have a much

3701
03:07:16,440 --> 03:07:19,959
Speaker 1: more educated electorate that is showing up in primaries. They're

3702
03:07:20,040 --> 03:07:22,120
Speaker 1: voting for city council, they're voting for school board, and

3703
03:07:22,160 --> 03:07:25,920
Speaker 1: they're definitely showing up for midterms. So what's interesting though,

3704
03:07:26,000 --> 03:07:29,320
Speaker 1: and this is the one sort of like Devil's Advocate

3705
03:07:29,440 --> 03:07:32,320
Speaker 1: argument that I'll continue to make, is that those Florida

3706
03:07:32,400 --> 03:07:34,640
Speaker 1: numbers are really interesting to me because that's a blowout

3707
03:07:34,680 --> 03:07:37,560
Speaker 1: for Maria Alviro Salazard to win that district, which was

3708
03:07:37,600 --> 03:07:40,560
Speaker 1: Dona Shalala's district. It was shifted a little bit to

3709
03:07:40,640 --> 03:07:43,320
Speaker 1: favorite Republicans. I think it went from plus four Dems

3710
03:07:43,360 --> 03:07:45,480
Speaker 1: to plus one Dems according to a five point thirty eight,

3711
03:07:45,800 --> 03:07:48,400
Speaker 1: but for a double digit win for Republican there, I

3712
03:07:48,480 --> 03:07:50,600
Speaker 1: think that's really interesting. And I just don't think we

3713
03:07:50,720 --> 03:07:52,680
Speaker 1: know what's going to happen in Texas yet. And so

3714
03:07:52,959 --> 03:07:56,200
Speaker 1: just in terms of that sort of broader realignment question,

3715
03:07:56,320 --> 03:07:59,280
Speaker 1: whether there is more evidence of a pivot, I do

3716
03:07:59,440 --> 03:08:02,039
Speaker 1: think it's we still the jury is kind of out

3717
03:08:02,120 --> 03:08:04,200
Speaker 1: on that question. Well, we may still, I mean, we

3718
03:08:04,320 --> 03:08:08,560
Speaker 1: may still have a real full on realignment, but also

3719
03:08:08,680 --> 03:08:11,400
Speaker 1: have Democrats do better than expect because of the point

3720
03:08:11,480 --> 03:08:14,120
Speaker 1: Ryan is making of, like, you know, Democrats used to

3721
03:08:14,200 --> 03:08:16,240
Speaker 1: really be envious of the fact that like all these

3722
03:08:16,360 --> 03:08:19,040
Speaker 1: like affluent white Republicans would show up every brick in

3723
03:08:19,120 --> 03:08:23,800
Speaker 1: election no matter what. Now those people are Democrats. Yeah,

3724
03:08:23,920 --> 03:08:25,800
Speaker 1: so that does kind of help you out a midterm

3725
03:08:25,840 --> 03:08:28,360
Speaker 1: election ultimately, doesn't it. I also wonder let's put the

3726
03:08:28,400 --> 03:08:29,959
Speaker 1: House aside and let's look at the Senate. I mean,

3727
03:08:30,000 --> 03:08:32,720
Speaker 1: I'm looking at the New York Times probability right now

3728
03:08:32,959 --> 03:08:35,880
Speaker 1: has a fifty three percent chance that herschel Walker does win.

3729
03:08:36,320 --> 03:08:39,600
Speaker 1: Their quote unquote Needle has a tassa has it currently

3730
03:08:39,720 --> 03:08:43,440
Speaker 1: leaning towards fifty one seats for the Republicans. So look,

3731
03:08:43,560 --> 03:08:46,080
Speaker 1: I think it's still within the realm of possibility. As

3732
03:08:46,160 --> 03:08:49,120
Speaker 1: you said, Crystal Fetterman may be out running Biden, but

3733
03:08:49,280 --> 03:08:52,560
Speaker 1: doctor oz is very likely to outrun Trump in the

3734
03:08:52,640 --> 03:08:55,800
Speaker 1: mainline suburbs of Philadelphia, so that could equal out. We

3735
03:08:55,879 --> 03:08:58,840
Speaker 1: could still have a scenario where doctor oz ekes out

3736
03:08:58,959 --> 03:09:02,360
Speaker 1: one point one percent of victory. So on an absolute

3737
03:09:02,480 --> 03:09:05,080
Speaker 1: numbers basis, that's a bad Canada, right, And we could

3738
03:09:05,080 --> 03:09:07,120
Speaker 1: still end up in an absolute numbers basis with like

3739
03:09:07,240 --> 03:09:10,320
Speaker 1: fifty three Republican seats, right like lake Master. We you

3740
03:09:10,400 --> 03:09:12,560
Speaker 1: know Arizona. I don't have a scrap of data in

3741
03:09:12,600 --> 03:09:15,320
Speaker 1: front of me yet out of Arizona, no idea. What's

3742
03:09:15,360 --> 03:09:17,600
Speaker 1: going to happen Nevada. I mean, we still got an

3743
03:09:17,640 --> 03:09:20,400
Speaker 1: hour until or forty five minutes right now until Nevada

3744
03:09:20,520 --> 03:09:22,640
Speaker 1: polls go ahead and close. So I think you know,

3745
03:09:22,720 --> 03:09:24,640
Speaker 1: when Chrystal and I wake up tomorrow morning and we

3746
03:09:24,760 --> 03:09:27,440
Speaker 1: have to do the show seven am. Whenever we're reporting

3747
03:09:27,440 --> 03:09:31,600
Speaker 1: for everybody, it's gonna be fun. Oh well, so badly. Well, Well,

3748
03:09:31,720 --> 03:09:34,920
Speaker 1: when we're all up here at seven, I will at

3749
03:09:35,000 --> 03:09:37,840
Speaker 1: least at least standard at least Standard time is back,

3750
03:09:37,920 --> 03:09:40,560
Speaker 1: and at least the sun will be up at that time.

3751
03:09:41,200 --> 03:09:42,640
Speaker 1: It could be a totally different night. We could be

3752
03:09:42,640 --> 03:09:45,840
Speaker 1: talk about your still about fifty three Republicans, and for Republicans,

3753
03:09:46,040 --> 03:09:48,680
Speaker 1: for Republicans who are disappointed that they are not yet

3754
03:09:48,800 --> 03:09:50,920
Speaker 1: looking at a bigger night, one thing they can remember

3755
03:09:51,040 --> 03:09:53,240
Speaker 1: is that if you look at two thousand and eight,

3756
03:09:53,480 --> 03:09:55,720
Speaker 1: when Obama came in, he had a bunch of coattails.

3757
03:09:56,160 --> 03:09:59,760
Speaker 1: He swept in something like thirteen to fifteen House Democrats.

3758
03:09:59,760 --> 03:10:04,960
Speaker 1: Remember with him, Biden had reverse coattails. Biden lost what

3759
03:10:05,160 --> 03:10:08,040
Speaker 1: ten to fifteen I think about fourteen, right, thank you,

3760
03:10:08,280 --> 03:10:12,720
Speaker 1: And so he baked in a bunch of losses. Biden

3761
03:10:13,040 --> 03:10:15,960
Speaker 1: has been so good at losing that there's less losing

3762
03:10:16,040 --> 03:10:17,440
Speaker 1: for him to do this time around. So if you

3763
03:10:17,520 --> 03:10:21,880
Speaker 1: imagine him losing all of those seats right those fifteen

3764
03:10:22,000 --> 03:10:24,520
Speaker 1: or so that he lost already, and then you add

3765
03:10:24,560 --> 03:10:27,320
Speaker 1: them to the ones he's losing tonight, then you've got

3766
03:10:27,360 --> 03:10:30,640
Speaker 1: a really big number, which if you're Obama, you kind

3767
03:10:30,680 --> 03:10:33,400
Speaker 1: of He wouldn't say that's publicly, but privately, I'm sure

3768
03:10:33,440 --> 03:10:36,600
Speaker 1: he's thinking, Okay, yeah, the only reason your wipeout isn't

3769
03:10:36,640 --> 03:10:39,600
Speaker 1: worse is that you already got half wiped out when

3770
03:10:39,640 --> 03:10:42,000
Speaker 1: you swept your way in. That's not a bad I've

3771
03:10:42,080 --> 03:10:46,760
Speaker 1: got some Arizona numbers. Ah, some data, some data from Arizona,

3772
03:10:47,080 --> 03:10:51,400
Speaker 1: and this is forty percent. Now caveats, we don't know

3773
03:10:51,600 --> 03:10:54,879
Speaker 1: early vote they have, where they're from, all that stuff. Okay,

3774
03:10:55,680 --> 03:11:00,240
Speaker 1: Mark Kelly is from Venezuela. No no, no, no, bam boo,

3775
03:11:00,320 --> 03:11:06,600
Speaker 1: balance straight into the mules. The mules brought him in.

3776
03:11:06,720 --> 03:11:09,960
Speaker 1: I'm typing the mill right now. Mark Kelly fifty tixo

3777
03:11:10,000 --> 03:11:12,960
Speaker 1: point four percent and Blake Masters at forty one point

3778
03:11:13,040 --> 03:11:16,800
Speaker 1: three percent. And the New York Times has this now

3779
03:11:17,440 --> 03:11:21,080
Speaker 1: based on what's in as lean Democrats, so they are

3780
03:11:21,160 --> 03:11:23,320
Speaker 1: seeing this based on what's I mean, forty percent is

3781
03:11:23,400 --> 03:11:25,080
Speaker 1: not nothing. Forty percent You can look at it and

3782
03:11:25,200 --> 03:11:26,600
Speaker 1: start to get a gauge of where it's going to go.

3783
03:11:27,560 --> 03:11:30,800
Speaker 1: They are feeling like Democrats are doing well there, so far.

3784
03:11:31,040 --> 03:11:34,320
Speaker 1: What about Maricopa County, So I think that's obviously the one. Okay,

3785
03:11:34,320 --> 03:11:35,920
Speaker 1: So we've got fifty three percent of the vote in

3786
03:11:36,040 --> 03:11:39,400
Speaker 1: from Maricopa County. Mark Kelly is leading there at fifty

3787
03:11:39,480 --> 03:11:41,400
Speaker 1: nine percent. If it does get close. A lot of

3788
03:11:41,440 --> 03:11:44,200
Speaker 1: the stuff that we talked about that is going very

3789
03:11:44,280 --> 03:11:48,040
Speaker 1: viral amongst MAGA folks about the closure about the oh

3790
03:11:48,160 --> 03:11:51,119
Speaker 1: and I should update everybody that lawsuit that I talked

3791
03:11:51,120 --> 03:11:54,440
Speaker 1: about that the Republicans filed that was denied by a judge,

3792
03:11:54,600 --> 03:11:58,120
Speaker 1: so the extra vote time they were asking for was

3793
03:11:58,200 --> 03:12:00,640
Speaker 1: not granted. So of course we can also see a

3794
03:12:00,680 --> 03:12:03,560
Speaker 1: potential fight in the future there. So it's interesting, I

3795
03:12:03,640 --> 03:12:05,560
Speaker 1: mean to have forty one percent of the vote in

3796
03:12:06,280 --> 03:12:08,720
Speaker 1: in terms of where else I was also looking, you know,

3797
03:12:08,840 --> 03:12:11,280
Speaker 1: we almost overlooked this one, but you got twenty two

3798
03:12:11,320 --> 03:12:14,119
Speaker 1: percent of the vote in and Gretschen Whitmer actually looks

3799
03:12:14,160 --> 03:12:18,039
Speaker 1: to be doing quite well. That's another that's another huge

3800
03:12:18,520 --> 03:12:22,320
Speaker 1: and the huge abortion referendum is it's currently up fourteen points.

3801
03:12:22,480 --> 03:12:25,280
Speaker 1: So I think the abortion referendum has hoattails for wit

3802
03:12:25,560 --> 03:12:28,959
Speaker 1: Here's here's a significant one. This is per Decision Desk

3803
03:12:29,520 --> 03:12:32,080
Speaker 1: Josh Shapiro wins Pennsylvania. Yeah, that's a big one. And

3804
03:12:32,120 --> 03:12:35,000
Speaker 1: here's what is the big one they promises when that results,

3805
03:12:35,040 --> 03:12:37,880
Speaker 1: and then they're like, oh, Joshua, well, well we should

3806
03:12:37,879 --> 03:12:40,840
Speaker 1: get the caveat that is decision desk, right, it's there.

3807
03:12:41,040 --> 03:12:44,080
Speaker 1: I've actually said this, Arkle. They are very premature, in

3808
03:12:44,200 --> 03:12:47,120
Speaker 1: my opinion, in some of their calls. So we'll see.

3809
03:12:47,840 --> 03:12:50,360
Speaker 1: But if even though you know it is still a

3810
03:12:50,440 --> 03:12:53,160
Speaker 1: major organization, they're a bit trigger. Happened for them to

3811
03:12:53,240 --> 03:12:56,680
Speaker 1: say that that is significant early on in the process

3812
03:12:56,760 --> 03:12:59,840
Speaker 1: for Shapiro to be called. And that is significant not

3813
03:13:00,160 --> 03:13:02,480
Speaker 1: just because you know, we're Pennsylvania's trending and is it

3814
03:13:02,600 --> 03:13:04,840
Speaker 1: the red okay wave of the red puddle or the

3815
03:13:04,879 --> 03:13:09,959
Speaker 1: red whatever, but also because Mastriano was genuine like election

3816
03:13:10,240 --> 03:13:14,720
Speaker 1: psycho and he was in Pennsylvania. This something we covered

3817
03:13:14,800 --> 03:13:18,800
Speaker 1: a lot on breaking points. You as governor appoint the

3818
03:13:18,840 --> 03:13:21,360
Speaker 1: secretary of state and this is a dude who wasn't

3819
03:13:21,480 --> 03:13:24,240
Speaker 1: isn't just like echoing stop the steel stuff. He was

3820
03:13:24,440 --> 03:13:27,560
Speaker 1: there on January sixth. He was part of the boss

3821
03:13:27,640 --> 03:13:30,840
Speaker 1: or something. He came, he came the capital. He came.

3822
03:13:30,959 --> 03:13:33,240
Speaker 1: He did not to the capital. He came up in

3823
03:13:33,360 --> 03:13:37,080
Speaker 1: the like January sixth Committee testimony thing, because he was

3824
03:13:37,120 --> 03:13:40,320
Speaker 1: so integral a trump'shule, fake elector plot in the state,

3825
03:13:40,720 --> 03:13:43,640
Speaker 1: Like this guy was in it in like true believer

3826
03:13:43,920 --> 03:13:46,320
Speaker 1: all the way in. And so you know, this is

3827
03:13:46,400 --> 03:13:50,120
Speaker 1: a real This is a real rebuke of the Trump

3828
03:13:50,280 --> 03:13:54,199
Speaker 1: stopped the steal candidates. I think Shapiro also deserves credit. Actually,

3829
03:13:54,280 --> 03:13:57,200
Speaker 1: David Strode, our partners over at the lever Sorrotas, known

3830
03:13:57,240 --> 03:13:59,920
Speaker 1: Shapiro for a while and he went and went to

3831
03:14:00,040 --> 03:14:02,720
Speaker 1: school together. Yeah, right, and he went and actually followed

3832
03:14:02,720 --> 03:14:05,680
Speaker 1: Shapiro on the campaign trail, and he has done He

3833
03:14:05,720 --> 03:14:09,360
Speaker 1: has established a real statewide profile for himself to going

3834
03:14:09,400 --> 03:14:13,280
Speaker 1: after big pharma, actually taking on the fracking companies, taking

3835
03:14:13,360 --> 03:14:16,039
Speaker 1: on the Catholic Church. And so I don't think it's

3836
03:14:16,320 --> 03:14:19,160
Speaker 1: just a rebuke of Masteriano. I think it also is

3837
03:14:19,160 --> 03:14:22,560
Speaker 1: an affirmative, you know, vote in favor of Joshapiro here,

3838
03:14:22,600 --> 03:14:25,080
Speaker 1: who seems to have impressed Pennsylvania voters. I think that's

3839
03:14:25,200 --> 03:14:28,040
Speaker 1: complete like that. For that to come in this early

3840
03:14:28,800 --> 03:14:30,680
Speaker 1: is a really big deal, and to look like it

3841
03:14:30,760 --> 03:14:32,920
Speaker 1: does this early is a really big deal in terms

3842
03:14:32,959 --> 03:14:36,160
Speaker 1: of whether this will be a tsunami or a wave.

3843
03:14:36,240 --> 03:14:38,880
Speaker 1: And another question of that is in your district that

3844
03:14:38,920 --> 03:14:41,280
Speaker 1: you were talking about earlier, Crystal, which is Virginia seven.

3845
03:14:41,800 --> 03:14:47,720
Speaker 1: It looks like Abigail Spanberger has bounced back and then

3846
03:14:47,959 --> 03:14:50,960
Speaker 1: just called it. She held on her. That is a

3847
03:14:51,040 --> 03:14:57,400
Speaker 1: really big deal because before we came up, he knows

3848
03:14:57,520 --> 03:15:03,480
Speaker 1: a thing or two. So when I was before we

3849
03:15:03,560 --> 03:15:06,200
Speaker 1: came into the studio, I had Fox News on, and

3850
03:15:06,360 --> 03:15:09,119
Speaker 1: I forget who said this. On Fox. They said, if

3851
03:15:09,160 --> 03:15:12,080
Speaker 1: you're looking at just a red wave, what you would

3852
03:15:12,120 --> 03:15:16,760
Speaker 1: expect is for yesly Vega to win Virginia seven. They

3853
03:15:16,800 --> 03:15:19,200
Speaker 1: were looking at other Virginia districts and saying, if you're

3854
03:15:19,200 --> 03:15:21,920
Speaker 1: expecting a tsunami, you would I think it was like

3855
03:15:22,000 --> 03:15:25,520
Speaker 1: Virginia ten. It was Jennifer Wexton. It was Wexton. That's right,

3856
03:15:25,840 --> 03:15:29,320
Speaker 1: you would expect that you can expect the tsunami. If

3857
03:15:29,360 --> 03:15:34,200
Speaker 1: Wexton loses, Abigail Spamburger is not even gonna lose. So again,

3858
03:15:34,360 --> 03:15:36,680
Speaker 1: I think what we're looking at here as this number,

3859
03:15:36,760 --> 03:15:39,880
Speaker 1: these numbers sort of come out, is a kind of

3860
03:15:40,040 --> 03:15:45,119
Speaker 1: targeted tsunami in certain places like in Florida, which is insane. Again,

3861
03:15:45,280 --> 03:15:49,199
Speaker 1: like double digit win in in Florida twenty seven insane

3862
03:15:49,959 --> 03:15:53,280
Speaker 1: a loss for a Republican I think in Virginia seven,

3863
03:15:53,440 --> 03:15:55,520
Speaker 1: which I know it was redrawn, but that was Dave

3864
03:15:55,600 --> 03:15:59,800
Speaker 1: Bratt's district in Eric Canter's district, right, Yes, this is

3865
03:16:00,080 --> 03:16:03,960
Speaker 1: it's it's almost unrecognizable though, because yeah, it's almost completely

3866
03:16:04,000 --> 03:16:07,640
Speaker 1: different district. So I mean it's close, Yeah, it's it's

3867
03:16:08,280 --> 03:16:11,120
Speaker 1: it is a swing district. Biden did win it, so

3868
03:16:11,600 --> 03:16:14,760
Speaker 1: you know there's another seat in Virginia. There were three

3869
03:16:14,920 --> 03:16:18,360
Speaker 1: Virginia and Lauria who were basically on the rocks. The

3870
03:16:18,480 --> 03:16:23,080
Speaker 1: last one of the lady Lauria, she lost according to CNN,

3871
03:16:23,360 --> 03:16:27,040
Speaker 1: she has lost. Now that is a Virginia beach district,

3872
03:16:27,200 --> 03:16:30,040
Speaker 1: and it's long been. It's gone back and forth. You

3873
03:16:30,520 --> 03:16:34,920
Speaker 1: remember that dude, Scott Rigel, he held that seat. Glenn nine.

3874
03:16:34,959 --> 03:16:37,000
Speaker 1: I don't remember Glenn and I he's like this blue

3875
03:16:37,080 --> 03:16:39,680
Speaker 1: dog Democrat he held that seat. So anyway, that's one

3876
03:16:39,720 --> 03:16:41,680
Speaker 1: that really goes back and forth. Now, if you were

3877
03:16:41,760 --> 03:16:45,360
Speaker 1: really like, you know, the the Democratic like actually it's

3878
03:16:45,400 --> 03:16:48,360
Speaker 1: going to be a blue wave kind of person, you

3879
03:16:48,400 --> 03:16:51,240
Speaker 1: would expect them to hold on to this kind of

3880
03:16:51,280 --> 03:16:53,800
Speaker 1: a seat. So it does show you, you know, there

3881
03:16:54,000 --> 03:16:56,760
Speaker 1: is a shift towards Republicans, especially I think in the House,

3882
03:16:56,800 --> 03:16:59,520
Speaker 1: where the national trends in the national mood are basically

3883
03:16:59,680 --> 03:17:02,480
Speaker 1: the thing that determines. But yeah, the fact that Democrats

3884
03:17:02,520 --> 03:17:05,600
Speaker 1: held on to two out of those three seats shows

3885
03:17:05,680 --> 03:17:09,080
Speaker 1: you it's not quite what Republicans were ultimately hoping for.

3886
03:17:09,120 --> 03:17:11,400
Speaker 1: Here's an interesting data point, Nate Cone saying that the

3887
03:17:11,520 --> 03:17:15,039
Speaker 1: GOP chance of taking the House has stayed steady. However,

3888
03:17:15,240 --> 03:17:18,520
Speaker 1: Democrats now favor to actually hold two hundred and eight seats,

3889
03:17:18,959 --> 03:17:21,200
Speaker 1: up from the two oh three at the beginning, so

3890
03:17:21,760 --> 03:17:25,200
Speaker 1: you know, five point five more seats they're held on to. Ran.

3891
03:17:25,280 --> 03:17:27,800
Speaker 1: As you said, it doesn't necessarily matter in terms of

3892
03:17:28,240 --> 03:17:32,480
Speaker 1: the actual doings of the House whether you have two

3893
03:17:32,800 --> 03:17:35,439
Speaker 1: three or two o eight whenever you're in the minority.

3894
03:17:35,720 --> 03:17:39,400
Speaker 1: But that's an indication to us of the tsunami, the whatever,

3895
03:17:39,640 --> 03:17:42,760
Speaker 1: the rain, the wave, that we can try and look

3896
03:17:42,800 --> 03:17:46,760
Speaker 1: at same interesting new data actually out of Georgia they

3897
03:17:46,800 --> 03:17:49,280
Speaker 1: are back to a true toss up with some of

3898
03:17:49,360 --> 03:17:52,560
Speaker 1: the new county data that is coming out. Unfortunately, Georgia

3899
03:17:52,680 --> 03:17:56,120
Speaker 1: is still not No county is like near one hundred percent,

3900
03:17:56,400 --> 03:17:59,360
Speaker 1: So we don't really have all that good of an

3901
03:17:59,400 --> 03:18:02,199
Speaker 1: idea of what's going on, but we do have RUF.

3902
03:18:02,240 --> 03:18:03,880
Speaker 1: I think you're right. So we got eighty percent of

3903
03:18:03,920 --> 03:18:06,160
Speaker 1: the vote in right now, herschel Walker is at forty

3904
03:18:06,240 --> 03:18:09,280
Speaker 1: nine point three. Raphael Warnock is at forty eight point eight,

3905
03:18:09,360 --> 03:18:12,760
Speaker 1: So I mean it is Razor type, go ahead, right, Yeah. Oh,

3906
03:18:12,800 --> 03:18:14,440
Speaker 1: and I just wanted to talk about weed and psychedelics.

3907
03:18:14,440 --> 03:18:19,400
Speaker 1: So something else went on herschel Walker. Yeah, yeah, no,

3908
03:18:19,800 --> 03:18:22,680
Speaker 1: I actually think though, one important thing to keep in

3909
03:18:22,720 --> 03:18:25,720
Speaker 1: mind is that for Republicans, if herschel Walker doesn't go

3910
03:18:25,800 --> 03:18:28,920
Speaker 1: to a runoff, they were told, especially sort of the

3911
03:18:29,080 --> 03:18:33,720
Speaker 1: Maga sect, they were told that herschel Walker was an abomination,

3912
03:18:34,040 --> 03:18:36,200
Speaker 1: the worst possible candidate that they could put up. And

3913
03:18:36,400 --> 03:18:39,920
Speaker 1: herschel Walker from the sort of conventional wisdom standpoint of

3914
03:18:40,040 --> 03:18:42,640
Speaker 1: a non sort of typical voter, of a sort of

3915
03:18:42,760 --> 03:18:45,960
Speaker 1: DC journalist person, yeah, he's a terrible candidate by a

3916
03:18:45,959 --> 03:18:48,560
Speaker 1: lot of different metrics, especially if you're Democrat. Just a

3917
03:18:48,640 --> 03:18:51,280
Speaker 1: terrible candidate. But at the same time, if you're a

3918
03:18:51,360 --> 03:18:54,080
Speaker 1: Trump voter, you might look at herschel Walker and the

3919
03:18:54,120 --> 03:18:56,440
Speaker 1: way that he handled all of that oppo research that

3920
03:18:56,560 --> 03:18:59,440
Speaker 1: was dumped on him in October about potentially paying for abortions,

3921
03:18:59,440 --> 03:19:02,320
Speaker 1: which he didn't, which seems ridiculous to me that he's

3922
03:19:02,360 --> 03:19:06,360
Speaker 1: denying it. But anyway, the point is he handled that

3923
03:19:06,480 --> 03:19:08,520
Speaker 1: in a sort of Trumpian fashion, which just like this

3924
03:19:08,680 --> 03:19:11,920
Speaker 1: is baked in to the herschel Walker that people think

3925
03:19:12,000 --> 03:19:14,440
Speaker 1: they already know it doesn't bother him. It was this

3926
03:19:14,600 --> 03:19:18,800
Speaker 1: idea that like he was changed, and so saying what

3927
03:19:18,879 --> 03:19:21,240
Speaker 1: he did in the past only confirms his point that

3928
03:19:21,320 --> 03:19:24,840
Speaker 1: he changed. So there are some of these candidates. Herschel Walker,

3929
03:19:25,000 --> 03:19:28,039
Speaker 1: doctor Oz is one of them. I think Ron Johnson

3930
03:19:28,120 --> 03:19:30,920
Speaker 1: you can count as one of them, Blake Masters, Carrie Lake.

3931
03:19:31,200 --> 03:19:33,160
Speaker 1: We don't know what's going to happen with them. But

3932
03:19:33,280 --> 03:19:36,560
Speaker 1: what's going to happen in this internice fight among Republicans

3933
03:19:36,879 --> 03:19:39,320
Speaker 1: is some people are going to say if herschel Walker

3934
03:19:39,360 --> 03:19:42,160
Speaker 1: pulls it out, which we don't know, they're going to say, Look,

3935
03:19:42,200 --> 03:19:45,800
Speaker 1: Mitch McConnell, it was all fine, Well what was wrong

3936
03:19:45,840 --> 03:19:48,680
Speaker 1: with you? But Shapiro's early win is a good sign

3937
03:19:48,760 --> 03:19:50,440
Speaker 1: of to the contract. Well, you don't have to go

3938
03:19:50,520 --> 03:19:55,040
Speaker 1: to Pennsylvania. Look at Georgia, Brian Kemp and Roethensberger. They've

3939
03:19:55,040 --> 03:19:57,200
Speaker 1: already been declared to a great point, and it wasn't

3940
03:19:57,200 --> 03:19:59,280
Speaker 1: even close. I think it's a great in fact, Roethensberger,

3941
03:19:59,480 --> 03:20:01,880
Speaker 1: you know, one by an even larger margin than Kemp.

3942
03:20:02,320 --> 03:20:04,760
Speaker 1: So if you're really trying to make the apples tables

3943
03:20:04,840 --> 03:20:09,840
Speaker 1: comparison here, Herschel Walker is dramatically underperforming what his fellow

3944
03:20:09,920 --> 03:20:13,600
Speaker 1: Republicans are. And you know, obviously, like they did not

3945
03:20:13,800 --> 03:20:17,480
Speaker 1: go along with stop this deal, they very courageously really

3946
03:20:18,200 --> 03:20:21,600
Speaker 1: stood up directly to Donald Trump and voters clearly rewarding

3947
03:20:21,680 --> 03:20:26,240
Speaker 1: them for that independence ultimately, and Kemp survived his primary

3948
03:20:26,320 --> 03:20:28,520
Speaker 1: ultimately very easily too, which was kind of a surprise

3949
03:20:28,600 --> 03:20:30,440
Speaker 1: to me. Honestly, I think that's a good point. Also,

3950
03:20:31,160 --> 03:20:33,240
Speaker 1: they would counter and say nobody got more hate this

3951
03:20:33,360 --> 03:20:35,800
Speaker 1: cycle than Herschel That's just how they would counter it.

3952
03:20:35,879 --> 03:20:38,040
Speaker 1: But Ryan, what were you going to say if he

3953
03:20:38,200 --> 03:20:41,199
Speaker 1: does win and what Democrats ought to do is flip

3954
03:20:41,280 --> 03:20:44,879
Speaker 1: the script and just lobby him relentlessly. If you want

3955
03:20:44,920 --> 03:20:48,520
Speaker 1: to throw these complete wild cards into the Senate, then

3956
03:20:48,560 --> 03:20:50,959
Speaker 1: you know what, we're going to talk to this guy.

3957
03:20:51,240 --> 03:20:55,440
Speaker 1: That'd be interesting because if you talk if he's conservative,

3958
03:20:55,640 --> 03:20:59,959
Speaker 1: he's like got some lazy, generine sort of general view.

3959
03:21:00,000 --> 03:21:02,560
Speaker 1: It was like the world. But you sit him down

3960
03:21:02,680 --> 03:21:06,040
Speaker 1: before a vote with the person that can connect with him,

3961
03:21:07,080 --> 03:21:09,680
Speaker 1: you don't know how he's going to vote. So here's

3962
03:21:09,720 --> 03:21:12,240
Speaker 1: an interesting number. Seventy one percent of the vote is

3963
03:21:12,280 --> 03:21:15,920
Speaker 1: in in Lauren Bobert's district. CBS is flagging this as

3964
03:21:15,959 --> 03:21:18,840
Speaker 1: a potential upset for the Democrat Adam Frish, who is

3965
03:21:18,920 --> 03:21:22,199
Speaker 1: right now up at fifty two percent of the vote

3966
03:21:22,240 --> 03:21:24,560
Speaker 1: and Bobert is at forty seven point nine, so almost

3967
03:21:24,600 --> 03:21:27,520
Speaker 1: forty eight, she's down four points. Wow, with seventy one

3968
03:21:27,560 --> 03:21:29,920
Speaker 1: percent of this that would be big. Well, this gives

3969
03:21:29,959 --> 03:21:34,120
Speaker 1: me one in to my psychedelic point. At least Colorado

3970
03:21:34,240 --> 03:21:38,800
Speaker 1: has psychedelics on the ballot. Didn't Degreaver Denver already had

3971
03:21:38,840 --> 03:21:42,400
Speaker 1: psychedelics right right? Yeah, okay Colorado. Colorado has its statewide

3972
03:21:42,400 --> 03:21:45,240
Speaker 1: on the ballot. Okay, it's up right now by thirty

3973
03:21:45,280 --> 03:21:48,840
Speaker 1: three points. Holy do they have absolute blowout. Wow. I

3974
03:21:48,879 --> 03:21:51,400
Speaker 1: don't know what else Colorada has. That one's going to

3975
03:21:51,440 --> 03:21:53,720
Speaker 1: be on the ballot and Bobert goes down. That's a

3976
03:21:53,840 --> 03:21:56,680
Speaker 1: lot of that. One's going to bring the young people out, Yeah,

3977
03:21:56,760 --> 03:22:01,520
Speaker 1: and other tinerant voters who are like that's they are

3978
03:22:01,560 --> 03:22:07,520
Speaker 1: our block. Theineran. I saw them at Bataru. Yeah, and

3979
03:22:07,600 --> 03:22:12,119
Speaker 1: they're like, look, okay, wait, you're going to legalize mushrooms here, Okay,

3980
03:22:12,160 --> 03:22:13,840
Speaker 1: I'll come out and do the vote for that. Oh

3981
03:22:13,920 --> 03:22:16,520
Speaker 1: and Polbert's on the ballot too. Don't like her? Yeah,

3982
03:22:16,560 --> 03:22:20,320
Speaker 1: you know, Emily's not wrong. Like they've got seventy percent

3983
03:22:20,360 --> 03:22:22,640
Speaker 1: of the vote there in that district. Yeah, and she's

3984
03:22:22,840 --> 03:22:26,480
Speaker 1: you know, she's not up by all that much. Interesting,

3985
03:22:26,600 --> 03:22:29,920
Speaker 1: So checking in again, Gretchen Whitmer twenty five percent, she's

3986
03:22:29,920 --> 03:22:32,240
Speaker 1: at fifty three forty four. Also, you know, I have

3987
03:22:32,360 --> 03:22:35,000
Speaker 1: to come back to the Camp numbers. Brian Camp is

3988
03:22:35,080 --> 03:22:38,760
Speaker 1: destroying Stacy Abrams right at fifty four to forty five.

3989
03:22:38,879 --> 03:22:40,960
Speaker 1: I mean it is not even close, like a nine

3990
03:22:41,000 --> 03:22:43,320
Speaker 1: point margin with eighty one percent. Can I say, I

3991
03:22:43,400 --> 03:22:46,480
Speaker 1: think that's also worth when you're looking at Abrams. I

3992
03:22:46,520 --> 03:22:51,080
Speaker 1: think it's also worth looking at Christ and Demings, which

3993
03:22:51,200 --> 03:22:54,000
Speaker 1: got a ton of money. Yes they did so, Stacy Abrams,

3994
03:22:54,280 --> 03:22:57,000
Speaker 1: Charlie crist but especially also Val Demings and Stacy Abrams,

3995
03:22:57,040 --> 03:22:59,680
Speaker 1: like they got so much money and we already know

3996
03:22:59,760 --> 03:23:02,520
Speaker 1: that the getting trounced. Those are three money pits for Democrats.

3997
03:23:02,720 --> 03:23:05,560
Speaker 1: It's so weird right to look at, Like Florida is

3998
03:23:05,760 --> 03:23:08,240
Speaker 1: the biggest Republican story of the night. I mean, Desanta's

3999
03:23:08,280 --> 03:23:11,640
Speaker 1: has won now by twenty points, that's insane. I mean

4000
03:23:11,760 --> 03:23:14,280
Speaker 1: in modern Florida history, I can't even think of a

4001
03:23:14,400 --> 03:23:17,040
Speaker 1: single you know election to even come close to that.

4002
03:23:17,160 --> 03:23:19,760
Speaker 1: And the in terms of Marco Rubio and his victory

4003
03:23:19,800 --> 03:23:23,000
Speaker 1: there same thing. I mean, he's running ahead by sixteen points.

4004
03:23:23,080 --> 03:23:24,800
Speaker 1: Like if you look at the two of those. Yeah,

4005
03:23:24,920 --> 03:23:27,959
Speaker 1: val Deming spent seventy five million to lose by sixty

4006
03:23:28,240 --> 03:23:30,440
Speaker 1: to lose as if she was running in a deep

4007
03:23:30,480 --> 03:23:33,160
Speaker 1: red state like Southwell, she also did she do the

4008
03:23:33,280 --> 03:23:38,360
Speaker 1: like didn't she was a police officer y, Yeah, whe

4009
03:23:38,600 --> 03:23:40,560
Speaker 1: she did a kind of like I'm the sort of

4010
03:23:40,600 --> 03:23:43,280
Speaker 1: like tough on crime. Yeah. And she was a really

4011
03:23:43,320 --> 03:23:46,760
Speaker 1: good candidate And it's a shame that Democrats had to

4012
03:23:46,800 --> 03:23:51,080
Speaker 1: waste her in a like unwinnable rate. Like Beasley was

4013
03:23:51,200 --> 03:23:54,560
Speaker 1: not a very good candidate. Beasley was fine as far

4014
03:23:54,600 --> 03:23:55,720
Speaker 1: as you know. She's kind of a run of the

4015
03:23:55,720 --> 03:23:58,760
Speaker 1: mill Democrat, not objectionable to anybody, but like wasn't blowing

4016
03:23:58,760 --> 03:24:02,000
Speaker 1: anybody away, whereas Valdemi has had like some some real

4017
03:24:02,040 --> 03:24:04,640
Speaker 1: political skill that she brought to this race. It was

4018
03:24:04,720 --> 03:24:07,640
Speaker 1: like that that's going to move the needle maybe two points,

4019
03:24:08,160 --> 03:24:11,440
Speaker 1: right whereas and that might be that might be something

4020
03:24:11,480 --> 03:24:14,800
Speaker 1: that Beasley ends up like if Beasley runs in Florida,

4021
03:24:15,200 --> 03:24:18,200
Speaker 1: like maybe she loses five right. No, So we've we've

4022
03:24:18,240 --> 03:24:20,760
Speaker 1: been talking a lot about ticket splitters, which, you know,

4023
03:24:21,000 --> 03:24:23,880
Speaker 1: considering how hard and how partisan whatever, the fact that

4024
03:24:24,040 --> 03:24:26,560
Speaker 1: ticket splitters are obviously a really significant part of the

4025
03:24:26,640 --> 03:24:29,600
Speaker 1: story is quite interesting. And in Arizona you have this

4026
03:24:29,720 --> 03:24:32,440
Speaker 1: dynamic again, although maybe somewhat less extreme than we see

4027
03:24:32,480 --> 03:24:35,240
Speaker 1: in other places. Right now, Carrie Lake is running about

4028
03:24:35,320 --> 03:24:39,840
Speaker 1: four percent ahead of Blake Masters in Maricopa County. So

4029
03:24:40,680 --> 03:24:42,880
Speaker 1: that's tough. That's like, I guess if you do the

4030
03:24:43,000 --> 03:24:45,600
Speaker 1: election denial, but you're like good on TV. But here's

4031
03:24:45,600 --> 03:24:48,120
Speaker 1: the thing. Does anybody does anybody? She is good? Though? Look,

4032
03:24:48,160 --> 03:24:51,240
Speaker 1: I will say her career, that lady, that lady is

4033
03:24:51,280 --> 03:24:53,800
Speaker 1: a star. I honestly, and I say this with no pleasure.

4034
03:24:53,840 --> 03:24:56,720
Speaker 1: I think she will be probably she will be President's wedding.

4035
03:24:57,000 --> 03:25:02,320
Speaker 1: I don't win though, Yeah she doesn't, you know what

4036
03:25:02,520 --> 03:25:04,720
Speaker 1: it really I mean, I got to look at the

4037
03:25:05,640 --> 03:25:08,360
Speaker 1: projections with her. But it's definitely not clear she wins

4038
03:25:08,400 --> 03:25:12,160
Speaker 1: at this point. I mean, considering Kelly has a significant

4039
03:25:12,240 --> 03:25:16,039
Speaker 1: lead of her Masters enough for the New York Times

4040
03:25:16,120 --> 03:25:18,440
Speaker 1: to say the race is leaning toward Kelly. You know,

4041
03:25:18,480 --> 03:25:20,400
Speaker 1: at the very least, it's going to be cool. Think

4042
03:25:20,400 --> 03:25:22,800
Speaker 1: about it this way, What are the chances that Lake

4043
03:25:22,920 --> 03:25:25,680
Speaker 1: wins by four or more? Yeah, at this point, like,

4044
03:25:25,840 --> 03:25:29,400
Speaker 1: it's not even clearer she'll probably win, right, not totally

4045
03:25:29,480 --> 03:25:33,520
Speaker 1: clear that she'll win. But if she wins by less

4046
03:25:33,520 --> 03:25:37,120
Speaker 1: than four and Masters is running four points behind her,

4047
03:25:37,360 --> 03:25:40,400
Speaker 1: then he's toasted. Like he needs to close the gap.

4048
03:25:40,440 --> 03:25:43,680
Speaker 1: He needs to be running a little bit closer to Lake.

4049
03:25:44,280 --> 03:25:47,520
Speaker 1: Unless you think Lake's gonna win with this significant I'm

4050
03:25:47,520 --> 03:25:49,880
Speaker 1: not sure. Yeah, maybe you guys are right, because maybe

4051
03:25:49,920 --> 03:25:52,199
Speaker 1: somebody help me understand this, right, because you've got forty

4052
03:25:52,440 --> 03:25:54,240
Speaker 1: percent of the vote in and you've got Katie Hobbs

4053
03:25:54,240 --> 03:25:56,600
Speaker 1: at fifty five and Carrie Lake at forty five. But

4054
03:25:56,720 --> 03:25:59,400
Speaker 1: in the the Senate it's actually Blake Masters is running

4055
03:25:59,440 --> 03:26:02,200
Speaker 1: four points behind that, but Mark Kelly is retaining the

4056
03:26:02,240 --> 03:26:04,400
Speaker 1: same amount of votes. So does that mean that there's

4057
03:26:04,440 --> 03:26:07,680
Speaker 1: ticket splitting going on with Katie Hobbs or are we

4058
03:26:07,720 --> 03:26:10,720
Speaker 1: seeing a significant underperformance here with Kerry Lake, I mean

4059
03:26:10,720 --> 03:26:13,080
Speaker 1: the other Lake Kelly voters. So right now we've got

4060
03:26:13,120 --> 03:26:15,600
Speaker 1: Maricopa still only in fifty three percent. But as I

4061
03:26:15,720 --> 03:26:17,720
Speaker 1: understand it, that one is like that was the major

4062
03:26:17,800 --> 03:26:19,920
Speaker 1: bell weather right like where Biden I think he won

4063
03:26:20,000 --> 03:26:21,840
Speaker 1: by fifty one percent or something, so that was a

4064
03:26:21,879 --> 03:26:24,720
Speaker 1: big event. We still only got fifty three percent in there.

4065
03:26:25,080 --> 03:26:27,800
Speaker 1: There are two counties in Arizona where we don't have

4066
03:26:27,959 --> 03:26:32,360
Speaker 1: any vote in at all. I'm not unfamiliar enough with

4067
03:26:32,520 --> 03:26:35,840
Speaker 1: the geography of Arizona to say the rest of the counties,

4068
03:26:35,959 --> 03:26:38,400
Speaker 1: it does look like it's around like fifty to sixty

4069
03:26:38,520 --> 03:26:41,200
Speaker 1: something percent that are reporting in. So this could be

4070
03:26:41,240 --> 03:26:43,640
Speaker 1: premature in the way that we're talking here right emily

4071
03:26:43,680 --> 03:26:46,360
Speaker 1: about Arizona. Or are we seeing an underperformance like we

4072
03:26:46,440 --> 03:26:48,120
Speaker 1: are pretty much all across the board. Yeah, I mean,

4073
03:26:48,120 --> 03:26:49,920
Speaker 1: I do think it's early. But if we are seeing

4074
03:26:50,240 --> 03:26:52,920
Speaker 1: similar mpers to what we saw in Pennsylvania, if you're

4075
03:26:52,920 --> 03:26:57,320
Speaker 1: seeing similar numbers to what we saw with the Spanburger district,

4076
03:26:57,879 --> 03:26:59,840
Speaker 1: then yeah, we would expect this to be within a

4077
03:27:00,040 --> 03:27:02,160
Speaker 1: margin of like one or two percent for both carry

4078
03:27:02,200 --> 03:27:04,920
Speaker 1: Lake and Blake Masters. With masters running a little bit

4079
03:27:04,959 --> 03:27:07,320
Speaker 1: behind her probably. And one thing I wanted to toss

4080
03:27:07,360 --> 03:27:10,160
Speaker 1: to you guys was I pulled this quote from Dave

4081
03:27:10,320 --> 03:27:13,560
Speaker 1: Wasserman just yesterday. He said, encouraging news for Dems. In

4082
03:27:13,680 --> 03:27:17,680
Speaker 1: the final NBC News poll, voting enthusiasm gap closes from

4083
03:27:17,800 --> 03:27:20,920
Speaker 1: seventy eight percent to sixty nine percent pro R two.

4084
03:27:21,200 --> 03:27:24,080
Speaker 1: And this is like way counter narrative from what the

4085
03:27:24,600 --> 03:27:26,960
Speaker 1: legacy media was talking about the last few days to

4086
03:27:27,320 --> 03:27:31,760
Speaker 1: seventy three to seventy three percent. The enthusiasm gap closed. Yeah,

4087
03:27:31,920 --> 03:27:33,960
Speaker 1: in the days leading up to the election, with as

4088
03:27:34,000 --> 03:27:37,560
Speaker 1: you've been pointing out, crystal super high gas prices, a

4089
03:27:37,840 --> 03:27:42,600
Speaker 1: very unpopular president, the consumer price index, crazy high, real

4090
03:27:42,680 --> 03:27:46,240
Speaker 1: wages down, all of these different things, bad housing market. Now,

4091
03:27:46,440 --> 03:27:50,000
Speaker 1: Wasserman continued, biggest problem for Dems is still independence. Just

4092
03:27:50,080 --> 03:27:52,400
Speaker 1: twenty eight percent approve of Biden and sixty six to

4093
03:27:52,480 --> 03:27:54,640
Speaker 1: twenty eight percent say cost of living is more important

4094
03:27:54,640 --> 03:27:58,240
Speaker 1: than abortion. But when you have Democrats with that same

4095
03:27:58,400 --> 03:28:01,400
Speaker 1: level of enthusiasm and a five NBC newspots seventy three

4096
03:28:01,440 --> 03:28:05,320
Speaker 1: to seventy three percent, that is telling. That's very interesting.

4097
03:28:05,480 --> 03:28:08,840
Speaker 1: I do really feel like that's almost the key story

4098
03:28:09,040 --> 03:28:12,280
Speaker 1: of this election, as we see it so far, because again,

4099
03:28:12,440 --> 03:28:18,080
Speaker 1: if it was normal midterm election, party in power, economy

4100
03:28:18,240 --> 03:28:21,720
Speaker 1: is terrible, people are angry, not having residential preper rating

4101
03:28:21,840 --> 03:28:24,240
Speaker 1: really low, you would see much worse results than even

4102
03:28:24,400 --> 03:28:27,560
Speaker 1: what we know already. And so I really do think

4103
03:28:27,680 --> 03:28:31,200
Speaker 1: what is different is that you do have that democratic enthusiasm.

4104
03:28:31,320 --> 03:28:33,280
Speaker 1: Number I do think that is the story of what

4105
03:28:33,440 --> 03:28:38,160
Speaker 1: makes this election different than other midterm elections. And I

4106
03:28:38,240 --> 03:28:40,720
Speaker 1: think that comes from a couple places. I mean, number one,

4107
03:28:41,000 --> 03:28:43,199
Speaker 1: Donald Trump continues to be he's not on the ballad.

4108
03:28:43,240 --> 03:28:45,920
Speaker 1: He's a very motivating factor. It doesn't help that he's

4109
03:28:45,959 --> 03:28:47,760
Speaker 1: out there like maybe I'm better know it's something to

4110
03:28:47,840 --> 03:28:50,360
Speaker 1: run tonight or maybe next week or whatever. That's a

4111
03:28:50,400 --> 03:28:52,440
Speaker 1: good point. Yeah, I mean that you know, that was

4112
03:28:52,480 --> 03:28:55,560
Speaker 1: probably not helpful. So there's a sense of like the

4113
03:28:55,600 --> 03:28:59,600
Speaker 1: stakes are existential. And then I do also think that

4114
03:29:00,240 --> 03:29:04,920
Speaker 1: previously Biden's approval rating with Democrats was really not great,

4115
03:29:05,280 --> 03:29:08,840
Speaker 1: and once he did some stuff that they liked, his

4116
03:29:08,959 --> 03:29:12,440
Speaker 1: approval rating with Democrats went up really significantly and they

4117
03:29:12,520 --> 03:29:14,879
Speaker 1: sort of like rallied around him and that was responsible

4118
03:29:14,920 --> 03:29:17,800
Speaker 1: for his uptick in terms of the approval rating. And

4119
03:29:17,920 --> 03:29:20,720
Speaker 1: so I think it's the combination of like, actually, they're

4120
03:29:20,800 --> 03:29:22,960
Speaker 1: kind of good with some of the things Biden's been

4121
03:29:23,000 --> 03:29:26,280
Speaker 1: getting accomplished. They feel like he's been a decent president,

4122
03:29:26,959 --> 03:29:29,160
Speaker 1: even though they, you know, continue to tell polsters they'd

4123
03:29:29,200 --> 03:29:31,119
Speaker 1: rather have someone else next time around. But they're like, Okay,

4124
03:29:31,160 --> 03:29:34,080
Speaker 1: you're getting some stuff done, and we really don't want

4125
03:29:34,200 --> 03:29:36,120
Speaker 1: these people in there, and Donald Trump is ready to

4126
03:29:36,200 --> 03:29:38,560
Speaker 1: run for president, we got to go vote to me,

4127
03:29:39,040 --> 03:29:42,320
Speaker 1: those dynamics are what is making this result different from

4128
03:29:42,360 --> 03:29:44,720
Speaker 1: what the typical midterm result was. Here's an interesting call

4129
03:29:44,840 --> 03:29:47,560
Speaker 1: against from our president friends. The first the trigger happy,

4130
03:29:47,640 --> 03:29:50,680
Speaker 1: but still interesting. Nonetheless, they're calling the race for Maggie Hassen.

4131
03:29:50,720 --> 03:29:53,879
Speaker 1: They're saying that Maggie Hassen there Wuen's re election there. Also,

4132
03:29:54,040 --> 03:29:58,600
Speaker 1: here's a really interesting stat from Pennsylvania, and this gets

4133
03:29:58,640 --> 03:30:01,879
Speaker 1: to exactly what you were talking about. Out with outperforming Biden.

4134
03:30:01,959 --> 03:30:05,600
Speaker 1: He's outperforming it in all eight of those districts, Crystal

4135
03:30:05,640 --> 03:30:08,760
Speaker 1: that you would highlighted before, all eight of the Pennsylvania

4136
03:30:08,800 --> 03:30:11,560
Speaker 1: counties that fully have reported their vote, He's outperforming them

4137
03:30:11,640 --> 03:30:14,400
Speaker 1: in every single one of them, meaning that Oz will

4138
03:30:14,640 --> 03:30:20,200
Speaker 1: have to significantly outrun outrun Trump in the Philly suburbs. Well,

4139
03:30:20,280 --> 03:30:23,520
Speaker 1: now I think that's still possible, right, Yeah, I do

4140
03:30:23,680 --> 03:30:26,440
Speaker 1: think that is one Emily was talking about sort of

4141
03:30:26,440 --> 03:30:29,400
Speaker 1: the media narrative around herschel Walker. I mean, there is

4142
03:30:29,520 --> 03:30:32,560
Speaker 1: like an immediate narrative around John Fetterman two and the

4143
03:30:32,680 --> 03:30:36,560
Speaker 1: impact of his stroke, and you know, ultimately I highlighted

4144
03:30:36,600 --> 03:30:40,320
Speaker 1: this earlier, even after seeing the debate performance and that

4145
03:30:40,520 --> 03:30:43,440
Speaker 1: was very difficult for everybody to watch and understanding their

4146
03:30:43,560 --> 03:30:46,640
Speaker 1: you know, very significant lingering effects of the stroke. People

4147
03:30:46,720 --> 03:30:49,840
Speaker 1: still like John Fetterman a lot more than they like

4148
03:30:49,959 --> 03:30:52,400
Speaker 1: doctor Oz. And at the end of the day, I mean,

4149
03:30:52,440 --> 03:30:55,120
Speaker 1: if he pulls us out and he ultimately wins, I

4150
03:30:55,200 --> 03:30:56,640
Speaker 1: think that's going to be a lot of the reason

4151
03:30:56,680 --> 03:31:01,000
Speaker 1: why Just Sam, I was just texting with a Fetterman person. Yeah,

4152
03:31:01,000 --> 03:31:04,080
Speaker 1: how are they feeling? Said, Oz only got bad news

4153
03:31:04,160 --> 03:31:06,320
Speaker 1: so far. We got to make sure we hold our

4154
03:31:06,360 --> 03:31:08,440
Speaker 1: own in the suburbs, which goes to your point, that

4155
03:31:08,600 --> 03:31:12,000
Speaker 1: is a really big deal. Feels good knock on wood suburbs.

4156
03:31:12,160 --> 03:31:15,920
Speaker 1: Like if Oz. If Oz's hope is in the Philadelphia suburbs,

4157
03:31:16,080 --> 03:31:18,520
Speaker 1: that's not the hope He's not when he went into

4158
03:31:18,600 --> 03:31:21,440
Speaker 1: the But yeah, that's right. But in that sort of

4159
03:31:22,520 --> 03:31:25,240
Speaker 1: the feeling that Republicans had going into tonight that was

4160
03:31:25,360 --> 03:31:27,400
Speaker 1: the hope, because these are people that are voting on

4161
03:31:27,480 --> 03:31:30,199
Speaker 1: what they see as pocketbook issues, that are voting on inflation,

4162
03:31:30,320 --> 03:31:33,280
Speaker 1: that are voting on education. That actually was they were saying,

4163
03:31:33,840 --> 03:31:35,920
Speaker 1: we did it. We got those swing voters back in

4164
03:31:36,000 --> 03:31:39,560
Speaker 1: the suburbs at least for this cycle, because of both

4165
03:31:39,920 --> 03:31:42,120
Speaker 1: the economy and culture war issues. They really saw the

4166
03:31:42,160 --> 03:31:43,920
Speaker 1: culture were issues as a win for them on this

4167
03:31:44,080 --> 03:31:46,800
Speaker 1: point because of education. And I think, you know, that's

4168
03:31:47,240 --> 03:31:50,440
Speaker 1: clearly the case in Florida, and I think we're going

4169
03:31:50,520 --> 03:31:52,560
Speaker 1: to see a couple of pockets where that is true,

4170
03:31:52,959 --> 03:31:55,560
Speaker 1: but it's clearly not going to be true in different pockets,

4171
03:31:56,080 --> 03:31:58,200
Speaker 1: and that might be the real story going out of this.

4172
03:31:58,320 --> 03:32:00,280
Speaker 1: And a really counter narrative question that I want to

4173
03:32:00,320 --> 03:32:05,480
Speaker 1: talk to you guys is whether abortion and democracy very

4174
03:32:05,600 --> 03:32:09,680
Speaker 1: counter narrative. They're so helpful enough with a democratic base

4175
03:32:10,240 --> 03:32:15,640
Speaker 1: that they offset perhaps some Republican gains. I'm not saying

4176
03:32:15,720 --> 03:32:19,000
Speaker 1: that happened, but I'm saying, what if actually the numbers,

4177
03:32:19,160 --> 03:32:21,440
Speaker 1: the internal numbers that Democrats had when they were poll

4178
03:32:21,520 --> 03:32:26,560
Speaker 1: testing talking about democracy, waxing poetic about democracy and talking

4179
03:32:26,640 --> 03:32:30,160
Speaker 1: about Dobbs. What if that actually did help them in

4180
03:32:30,240 --> 03:32:33,320
Speaker 1: the Philly suburbs significantly. I think I think abortion and

4181
03:32:33,400 --> 03:32:36,080
Speaker 1: democracy are actually shorthands for what Crystal was saying earlier,

4182
03:32:36,959 --> 03:32:40,160
Speaker 1: which is that a okay, abortion really mattered and really

4183
03:32:40,240 --> 03:32:43,120
Speaker 1: joe people out the pulp, and democracy can can be

4184
03:32:43,320 --> 03:32:45,160
Speaker 1: considered to be a stand in for what you were

4185
03:32:45,160 --> 03:32:48,280
Speaker 1: saying about these people are crazy. Mastrian is totally crazy

4186
03:32:48,840 --> 03:32:51,240
Speaker 1: and this is not the country that we see ourselves

4187
03:32:51,280 --> 03:32:53,560
Speaker 1: as part abortion. It's even some of the stuff they're saying,

4188
03:32:53,760 --> 03:32:56,440
Speaker 1: cutting social Security, medicare like, all of this are like,

4189
03:32:56,720 --> 03:32:59,360
Speaker 1: I don't know. This was what came out in the

4190
03:32:59,360 --> 03:33:02,760
Speaker 1: New York Times in a college pole that I personally

4191
03:33:02,920 --> 03:33:05,000
Speaker 1: was very skeptical of. It was like, this looks very

4192
03:33:05,080 --> 03:33:07,240
Speaker 1: rosy for Democrats and they've been off before and I

4193
03:33:07,280 --> 03:33:10,200
Speaker 1: don't really think so. It very oft Yeah, one of

4194
03:33:10,240 --> 03:33:14,560
Speaker 1: their big takeaways was overall, people want Republicans to control

4195
03:33:14,760 --> 03:33:18,160
Speaker 1: the Senate, but they don't like the Republican candidates. They

4196
03:33:18,240 --> 03:33:22,000
Speaker 1: prefer the Democratic candidates in their state. And so I

4197
03:33:22,120 --> 03:33:24,760
Speaker 1: think that's, you know, part of what you are seeing

4198
03:33:24,879 --> 03:33:28,240
Speaker 1: ultimately play out here. I also remember soccer, We covered

4199
03:33:28,280 --> 03:33:33,240
Speaker 1: that Wall Street Journal poll that had white suburban women

4200
03:33:34,040 --> 03:33:38,560
Speaker 1: fleeing the Democratic Party and moving abruptly to the Republican Party.

4201
03:33:39,000 --> 03:33:41,160
Speaker 1: From the time of like Roe versus Wade and the

4202
03:33:41,240 --> 03:33:45,240
Speaker 1: maximums Democratic hopes to the close of the election, that

4203
03:33:45,520 --> 03:33:48,520
Speaker 1: I'm really starting to question because especially when you look

4204
03:33:48,600 --> 03:33:51,600
Speaker 1: at New Hampshire, right, this is a largess a lot

4205
03:33:51,640 --> 03:33:53,240
Speaker 1: of white people in that state, a lot of college

4206
03:33:53,360 --> 03:33:55,440
Speaker 1: educated people in that state, a lot of suburban, white

4207
03:33:55,480 --> 03:33:58,640
Speaker 1: college educated people in that state. Clearly did not have

4208
03:33:58,879 --> 03:34:02,400
Speaker 1: some big shift to the right over either pocketbook issues

4209
03:34:02,600 --> 03:34:05,120
Speaker 1: or any culture war issues that they were trying to

4210
03:34:05,200 --> 03:34:07,240
Speaker 1: run on. Either. Go ahead, I throw out a point

4211
03:34:07,280 --> 03:34:08,600
Speaker 1: that might be crazy, but you're not going to hear

4212
03:34:08,640 --> 03:34:13,279
Speaker 1: it anywhere else. All of the talk on the economy

4213
03:34:13,360 --> 03:34:16,240
Speaker 1: from the media has been about inflation. Yeah, inflation matters

4214
03:34:16,280 --> 03:34:19,080
Speaker 1: to people. Obviously, see gas pumped the groceries. Are not

4215
03:34:19,240 --> 03:34:22,959
Speaker 1: dismissing that we are in one of the best jobs

4216
03:34:23,000 --> 03:34:26,320
Speaker 1: economies and wage economy. Great point that we have been

4217
03:34:26,400 --> 03:34:29,240
Speaker 1: in in fifty years. Yeah, So what if And going

4218
03:34:29,280 --> 03:34:31,480
Speaker 1: back to the point I was making earlier about material

4219
03:34:31,600 --> 03:34:35,720
Speaker 1: reality versus messaging, what if in order for that economic

4220
03:34:35,800 --> 03:34:38,879
Speaker 1: messaging to really break through in a red wave type

4221
03:34:38,920 --> 03:34:43,000
Speaker 1: of way, you actually need significant jobleishness and unexployment. Yeah,

4222
03:34:43,120 --> 03:34:45,400
Speaker 1: you know what I was wondering about as possible, I

4223
03:34:45,480 --> 03:34:47,600
Speaker 1: have a very good point. I think it's an interesting point.

4224
03:34:47,600 --> 03:34:50,240
Speaker 1: I don't quite buy it because you have so consistently

4225
03:34:50,280 --> 03:34:53,560
Speaker 1: people saying, like, my finances suck, I've been hurt by it,

4226
03:34:53,800 --> 03:34:57,280
Speaker 1: my wages are going to inflation, gas prices are hurting me.

4227
03:34:57,400 --> 03:35:00,120
Speaker 1: So I think people are genuinely feeling the pain. What

4228
03:35:00,200 --> 03:35:02,720
Speaker 1: I wondered about, though, is like when you ask people

4229
03:35:02,800 --> 03:35:06,000
Speaker 1: what's causing inflation, they mostly don't say Joe Biden. They

4230
03:35:06,040 --> 03:35:09,960
Speaker 1: mostly are like corporate profits, supply chain issues, Ukraine war.

4231
03:35:10,680 --> 03:35:13,520
Speaker 1: So I wonder if there was, you know, an attempt

4232
03:35:13,879 --> 03:35:16,680
Speaker 1: to totally pin this like this is Joe Biden's fault

4233
03:35:17,040 --> 03:35:19,240
Speaker 1: that people just didn't really buy. They actually had kind

4234
03:35:19,280 --> 03:35:23,080
Speaker 1: of a more realistic view of like you know, I mean,

4235
03:35:23,440 --> 03:35:26,640
Speaker 1: there's inflation everywhere, and we had COVID and all these

4236
03:35:26,720 --> 03:35:28,920
Speaker 1: crazy all this crazy shit just happened. So I don't

4237
03:35:28,959 --> 03:35:31,560
Speaker 1: know that you could really totally lay the blame at

4238
03:35:31,560 --> 03:35:34,960
Speaker 1: their feet. And then I've been very critical of the

4239
03:35:35,000 --> 03:35:38,240
Speaker 1: democratic lack of messaging on the economy which I still

4240
03:35:38,240 --> 03:35:41,960
Speaker 1: think was a missed opportunity. But perhaps there's a critique

4241
03:35:42,000 --> 03:35:46,000
Speaker 1: of the Republican lack of messaging on what they would

4242
03:35:46,120 --> 03:35:50,360
Speaker 1: actually do economically, And it turns out it wasn't enough

4243
03:35:50,680 --> 03:35:54,040
Speaker 1: just to say like, inflation's bad, inflation's bad, inflation's bad, true,

4244
03:35:54,400 --> 03:35:57,720
Speaker 1: when people aren't really persuaded that that is in fact all.

4245
03:35:57,800 --> 03:36:00,040
Speaker 1: Joe Biden, that is a fantastic point. And look, I

4246
03:36:00,080 --> 03:36:01,920
Speaker 1: think there will be a lot of takeaways from the selection.

4247
03:36:02,120 --> 03:36:04,760
Speaker 1: I still think, you know, it could be premature all this.

4248
03:36:04,959 --> 03:36:06,880
Speaker 1: Of course, we can only work with the data that

4249
03:36:07,000 --> 03:36:08,760
Speaker 1: we have. Also, did want to give people an update,

4250
03:36:08,800 --> 03:36:11,520
Speaker 1: which is kind of funny. Maricopa County says they will

4251
03:36:11,560 --> 03:36:14,240
Speaker 1: expect to have all their ballots counted by Friday. So

4252
03:36:14,800 --> 03:36:18,800
Speaker 1: thank you. We really appreciate the work that you will

4253
03:36:18,879 --> 03:36:21,200
Speaker 1: put in over the last two years to make sure

4254
03:36:21,240 --> 03:36:22,760
Speaker 1: that we don't have to live through the hell of

4255
03:36:22,840 --> 03:36:25,000
Speaker 1: twenty They didn't have to spend the last two years.

4256
03:36:25,160 --> 03:36:28,080
Speaker 1: What are you people been doing for the last two years.

4257
03:36:28,440 --> 03:36:31,560
Speaker 1: What they've been doing is then recounting because like dodging

4258
03:36:31,640 --> 03:36:36,240
Speaker 1: death threats. Okay, Chrys, you've got a big one, yeah, Fetterman.

4259
03:36:36,400 --> 03:36:39,760
Speaker 1: According to The New York Times now has a seventy

4260
03:36:39,840 --> 03:36:43,760
Speaker 1: three percent. Wow, that's big. Yeah, it is bad. That's

4261
03:36:43,760 --> 03:36:45,520
Speaker 1: a big one. So doctor Oz won't have to move

4262
03:36:45,560 --> 03:36:53,320
Speaker 1: to Pennsylvania's got eight. When you're that rich, you don't

4263
03:36:53,320 --> 03:36:57,120
Speaker 1: live anywhere. You just simply float amongst which sounds kind

4264
03:36:57,160 --> 03:36:59,879
Speaker 1: of how many houses he on? He was like, well,

4265
03:37:00,120 --> 03:37:03,880
Speaker 1: legitimately I only have three or some. Are we talking

4266
03:37:03,920 --> 03:37:05,880
Speaker 1: about tax shelters? Are we talking about houses? Are we're

4267
03:37:05,879 --> 03:37:09,320
Speaker 1: talking about that? We're talking about safe houses? Well, okay,

4268
03:37:09,400 --> 03:37:12,200
Speaker 1: so a little And this is from Third Way. So

4269
03:37:12,320 --> 03:37:15,840
Speaker 1: Third Way to their survey, sent big centrist group and

4270
03:37:16,160 --> 03:37:19,520
Speaker 1: they had this this report where they said, to the

4271
03:37:19,520 --> 03:37:21,840
Speaker 1: conversation we were just having about the economy, they said

4272
03:37:21,879 --> 03:37:24,520
Speaker 1: a majority of voters fifty three percent also worry that

4273
03:37:24,640 --> 03:37:28,440
Speaker 1: continued Democratic control of Congress will make inflation worse. Well

4274
03:37:28,520 --> 03:37:31,240
Speaker 1: less than a quarter say the same about Republican control,

4275
03:37:31,600 --> 03:37:34,240
Speaker 1: and fifty six percent say Democrats are not focused enough

4276
03:37:34,280 --> 03:37:36,680
Speaker 1: on the economy. Will only thirty six percent say the

4277
03:37:36,760 --> 03:37:42,120
Speaker 1: same about their opponents. So fifty six percent actually, now

4278
03:37:42,200 --> 03:37:45,720
Speaker 1: that it comes up or I'm sorry, fifty three percent

4279
03:37:45,800 --> 03:37:50,480
Speaker 1: who are worried about whether a democratic control Congress will

4280
03:37:50,480 --> 03:37:53,640
Speaker 1: make inflation worse. And then you have according to Third Way,

4281
03:37:53,680 --> 03:37:56,440
Speaker 1: fifty four percent of people said that Democrats or that

4282
03:37:56,520 --> 03:38:00,040
Speaker 1: Republicans would do a better job handling the inflation and

4283
03:38:00,120 --> 03:38:04,200
Speaker 1: the economy. That number is not as high as maybe

4284
03:38:04,240 --> 03:38:07,360
Speaker 1: you would expect. Actually that that's actually kind of an

4285
03:38:07,440 --> 03:38:11,520
Speaker 1: indicator that in some of these regional blue areas, where

4286
03:38:11,840 --> 03:38:14,600
Speaker 1: there's a lot of built in trust and support and

4287
03:38:14,720 --> 03:38:19,080
Speaker 1: muscle memory infrastructure wise for Democrats, that we weren't going

4288
03:38:19,120 --> 03:38:22,359
Speaker 1: to see a tsunami. Yeah, that that actually in retrospect,

4289
03:38:22,400 --> 03:38:25,320
Speaker 1: when we're looking at Shapiro winning, when we're looking at

4290
03:38:25,400 --> 03:38:28,120
Speaker 1: Spanburger winning, those are indicators that were not in a

4291
03:38:28,160 --> 03:38:31,600
Speaker 1: tsunami period. That kind of gets to it, and maybe

4292
03:38:31,680 --> 03:38:36,800
Speaker 1: that in these these blue enclaves, people genuinely that forty

4293
03:38:36,840 --> 03:38:39,920
Speaker 1: four percent of voters trust Democrats more. It's very you know,

4294
03:38:40,080 --> 03:38:42,480
Speaker 1: like all of the data that is coming out is

4295
03:38:42,680 --> 03:38:46,280
Speaker 1: really just it shows us that trying to base our

4296
03:38:46,400 --> 03:38:49,520
Speaker 1: priors on twenty eighteen, because twenty eighteen, you know, the

4297
03:38:49,560 --> 03:38:51,880
Speaker 1: polls actually work quite off twenty twenty and twenty sixteen.

4298
03:38:52,280 --> 03:38:54,440
Speaker 1: Of course, it's difficult, and you know, we have no

4299
03:38:54,600 --> 03:38:56,560
Speaker 1: choice but to come really we have no choice but

4300
03:38:56,680 --> 03:38:58,880
Speaker 1: to come with the data and the biases of the

4301
03:38:58,959 --> 03:39:02,120
Speaker 1: modern history that we have. But in general, like what

4302
03:39:02,280 --> 03:39:05,640
Speaker 1: we're seeing here is that I'm even looking at you know,

4303
03:39:05,800 --> 03:39:08,880
Speaker 1: Dems might actually gain a seat. And this one district

4304
03:39:08,959 --> 03:39:13,480
Speaker 1: in Ohio in Cincinnati, like I'm looking at data that also, Yeah,

4305
03:39:13,560 --> 03:39:15,800
Speaker 1: there we go. In the Emily pulled this up here

4306
03:39:15,840 --> 03:39:18,320
Speaker 1: from Nate Silver. In house races as toss up or Lean,

4307
03:39:18,400 --> 03:39:21,840
Speaker 1: Democrats are leading in seventeen in Republicans only in seven.

4308
03:39:21,959 --> 03:39:25,160
Speaker 1: I mean, that is just simply not the scenario which

4309
03:39:25,200 --> 03:39:27,200
Speaker 1: I think a lot of us expected. I think the

4310
03:39:27,280 --> 03:39:29,800
Speaker 1: takeaways from this are going to be really interesting. With

4311
03:39:29,920 --> 03:39:32,640
Speaker 1: the seventy three percent there for John Fetterman, I mean

4312
03:39:32,720 --> 03:39:36,360
Speaker 1: that is just that is stunning. Like again, it's early.

4313
03:39:36,640 --> 03:39:38,600
Speaker 1: It will take at least a couple of days to

4314
03:39:38,680 --> 03:39:42,600
Speaker 1: actually find out what's going on Maricopa County. As I

4315
03:39:42,680 --> 03:39:46,280
Speaker 1: alluded to earlier, Georgia actually remains right now in a

4316
03:39:46,360 --> 03:39:49,240
Speaker 1: total toss up. They have seventy seven percent of the

4317
03:39:49,360 --> 03:39:51,480
Speaker 1: vote that is in there. But well here's another very

4318
03:39:52,200 --> 03:39:55,400
Speaker 1: in the pure toss ups, Democrats are ahead and eight

4319
03:39:55,600 --> 03:39:59,480
Speaker 1: and the GOP in two. A tsunami that's not what

4320
03:39:59,560 --> 03:40:03,560
Speaker 1: you're looking. Yeah, RSI Captor. People people wrote off Marcy Captor,

4321
03:40:05,640 --> 03:40:09,920
Speaker 1: but then the Republicans wrote off JR. Madjeuski, like he

4322
03:40:10,040 --> 03:40:11,640
Speaker 1: like made up a bunch of stuff. Well he was

4323
03:40:11,680 --> 03:40:15,359
Speaker 1: the guy who he got Trump's endorsement by mowing Trump's

4324
03:40:15,400 --> 03:40:18,600
Speaker 1: face into his lawn. Oh my god, Oh yeah, remember

4325
03:40:18,640 --> 03:40:21,720
Speaker 1: this guy, and he won the prime the Marshall, I thought, Marshall,

4326
03:40:22,520 --> 03:40:27,080
Speaker 1: maybe maybe he doesn't he doesn't have a lot, Marshall.

4327
03:40:27,440 --> 03:40:30,400
Speaker 1: Marshall's lawn service is that he goes and he has

4328
03:40:30,440 --> 03:40:33,400
Speaker 1: a Now he mows in the candidate of your choice

4329
03:40:33,440 --> 03:40:37,080
Speaker 1: to try to get the endorsement all of Brooklyn. So

4330
03:40:37,200 --> 03:40:39,560
Speaker 1: it looks like, so seventy nine percent in and she's

4331
03:40:39,680 --> 03:40:42,400
Speaker 1: up by eight eight percent. I mean, it looks like

4332
03:40:42,480 --> 03:40:44,360
Speaker 1: Captor is going to hold on. When I saw the

4333
03:40:44,480 --> 03:40:49,840
Speaker 1: first exit polls out that were like nationally motor set

4334
03:40:49,879 --> 03:40:53,040
Speaker 1: inflation was most important, like thirty four percent, but abortion

4335
03:40:53,320 --> 03:40:55,520
Speaker 1: was kind of close on its heels, I was like,

4336
03:40:55,840 --> 03:40:58,280
Speaker 1: that is a different picture than we've been getting from

4337
03:40:58,400 --> 03:41:02,280
Speaker 1: these holes leading leading up to now, it's been like

4338
03:41:02,879 --> 03:41:06,960
Speaker 1: overwhelmingly inflation, economy, etc. And abortion is like third on

4339
03:41:07,040 --> 03:41:09,400
Speaker 1: the list, not even second, and so when I saw that,

4340
03:41:09,440 --> 03:41:12,920
Speaker 1: I was like, hmm. Then we got the Pennsylvania exit

4341
03:41:13,000 --> 03:41:16,280
Speaker 1: polls and voters there actually put abortion as the number

4342
03:41:16,400 --> 03:41:19,720
Speaker 1: one issue, which in some ways makes sense. I mean,

4343
03:41:19,800 --> 03:41:22,199
Speaker 1: that might be another thing to parse in the days

4344
03:41:22,240 --> 03:41:26,920
Speaker 1: to come, is the states where voters really felt that

4345
03:41:27,240 --> 03:41:30,120
Speaker 1: abortion rights were truly at stake, and I would say

4346
03:41:30,120 --> 03:41:34,240
Speaker 1: Pennsylvania is one of them. Republicans have both the House

4347
03:41:34,280 --> 03:41:38,119
Speaker 1: and the Senate. If you end up with Mastriano as governor,

4348
03:41:38,480 --> 03:41:41,920
Speaker 1: they can do whatever they want. So they probably really

4349
03:41:42,000 --> 03:41:44,880
Speaker 1: really felt like, oh, this issue is I can actually

4350
03:41:45,040 --> 03:41:47,640
Speaker 1: see how my vote is going to change what ultimately

4351
03:41:47,720 --> 03:41:50,960
Speaker 1: happens here. So that might be another dynamic sort of

4352
03:41:51,080 --> 03:41:54,800
Speaker 1: underpinning what happens what happened here. Two key races on

4353
03:41:55,000 --> 03:41:58,840
Speaker 1: in Pennsylvania on that point. One is at Allentown Lehigh Valley,

4354
03:41:59,040 --> 03:42:02,400
Speaker 1: people were looking Exus wild as quite vulnerable. She's up

4355
03:42:02,440 --> 03:42:05,760
Speaker 1: by six points with sixty five percent in and then

4356
03:42:06,480 --> 03:42:08,800
Speaker 1: up in Scranton, which is a race that Emily and

4357
03:42:08,879 --> 03:42:11,640
Speaker 1: I covered on Counterpoints a couple of times. Matt Cartwright

4358
03:42:11,720 --> 03:42:13,880
Speaker 1: versus Jim Bognet. Matt cart Wright one of the few

4359
03:42:14,080 --> 03:42:17,960
Speaker 1: like actually populous Democrats up by ten points. Wow, with

4360
03:42:18,080 --> 03:42:22,039
Speaker 1: fifty nine percent in against Jim Bognet and it's not over,

4361
03:42:22,200 --> 03:42:25,160
Speaker 1: but they've got him leaning d here how many votes

4362
03:42:25,200 --> 03:42:27,959
Speaker 1: percentage of the votes? Fifty nine percent of the vote

4363
03:42:27,959 --> 03:42:30,960
Speaker 1: in and he's up by twenty thousand votes. So like,

4364
03:42:31,080 --> 03:42:33,360
Speaker 1: that's a hard I think I just realized this. But

4365
03:42:33,440 --> 03:42:36,960
Speaker 1: we're all from swing states. Ryan's Pa, Crystal's Virginia or

4366
03:42:37,040 --> 03:42:40,600
Speaker 1: Texas in Wisconsin, I don't know if Texas yet. Not yet,

4367
03:42:41,879 --> 03:42:45,160
Speaker 1: that's a percent Okay, it happened one time, it is

4368
03:42:45,280 --> 03:42:48,440
Speaker 1: like yeah, yeah, yeah the future one day swing say,

4369
03:42:48,480 --> 03:42:54,080
Speaker 1: I would have said Virginia is a blue state. That's true, Lily. Okay,

4370
03:42:54,160 --> 03:42:58,280
Speaker 1: So Crystal, you and I were doing breaking points tomorrow morning,

4371
03:42:58,440 --> 03:43:00,320
Speaker 1: we're going to do a hand off here in a

4372
03:43:00,360 --> 03:43:01,920
Speaker 1: little bit. What do you think we should sum up with.

4373
03:43:02,360 --> 03:43:07,119
Speaker 1: For let's be clear, it's ten pm on the East coast,

4374
03:43:07,560 --> 03:43:10,640
Speaker 1: so as of right now time at this moment, standard time,

4375
03:43:10,680 --> 03:43:15,720
Speaker 1: baby standard as hell. All. Yeah, I mean, here's what

4376
03:43:15,840 --> 03:43:19,320
Speaker 1: we know. The red tsunami did not happen. Yes, we

4377
03:43:19,520 --> 03:43:24,320
Speaker 1: know Republicans underperformed the fundamentals. There's just no doubt about that.

4378
03:43:25,000 --> 03:43:28,520
Speaker 1: And I do think it is a real indictment in

4379
03:43:28,640 --> 03:43:32,560
Speaker 1: a sense of the direction of the party, especially, I mean,

4380
03:43:32,720 --> 03:43:34,800
Speaker 1: abortion extremism has been there for a long time for

4381
03:43:34,800 --> 03:43:37,840
Speaker 1: the Republicans, but laying on top of that, like I'm

4382
03:43:37,840 --> 03:43:39,840
Speaker 1: not going to accept the results of the elections, I'm

4383
03:43:39,840 --> 03:43:42,280
Speaker 1: going to deny what happened in the last one. We're

4384
03:43:42,320 --> 03:43:45,320
Speaker 1: going to nominate the most fringe candidates we can possibly find.

4385
03:43:45,760 --> 03:43:48,600
Speaker 1: I don't think you can read these results, even if

4386
03:43:48,800 --> 03:43:50,879
Speaker 1: everything else sort of falls in the Republicans direction, they

4387
03:43:50,959 --> 03:43:53,520
Speaker 1: end up doing better than they've done up to this point.

4388
03:43:53,920 --> 03:43:56,440
Speaker 1: I don't think you can read these results given the

4389
03:43:56,560 --> 03:44:00,240
Speaker 1: fundamentals of this election, as anything but a rebuke the

4390
03:44:00,680 --> 03:44:02,840
Speaker 1: direction of the Republican Party. I think you were correct.

4391
03:44:02,959 --> 03:44:05,200
Speaker 1: I think my takeaway from this is that it will

4392
03:44:05,240 --> 03:44:07,240
Speaker 1: get I still don't think, by the way, that even

4393
03:44:07,400 --> 03:44:09,280
Speaker 1: if even if the Dams do hold the Senate, I

4394
03:44:09,320 --> 03:44:12,520
Speaker 1: don't think it will diminish Trump's chances of completely holding

4395
03:44:12,560 --> 03:44:14,360
Speaker 1: on to the GOP and all that. Oh yeah, I

4396
03:44:14,520 --> 03:44:18,120
Speaker 1: do think this will increase discussion around Trump's hold on

4397
03:44:18,200 --> 03:44:22,200
Speaker 1: the GOP, given that he pushed Walker, given that he

4398
03:44:22,320 --> 03:44:25,680
Speaker 1: pushed doctor Oz Blake Master. I don't know yet know

4399
03:44:25,680 --> 03:44:27,640
Speaker 1: what's going to happen with to Blake Masters, with Carry

4400
03:44:27,720 --> 03:44:31,480
Speaker 1: Lake or with Brian Sorry, with Dan Boldock in New Hampshire.

4401
03:44:31,520 --> 03:44:33,720
Speaker 1: I have no idea, so let's be clear on all

4402
03:44:33,800 --> 03:44:36,480
Speaker 1: of those races. But if some of those lose, or

4403
03:44:36,560 --> 03:44:38,920
Speaker 1: if the GOP only wins fifty one seats and they

4404
03:44:38,959 --> 03:44:42,000
Speaker 1: don't perform as well in the House, I do think

4405
03:44:42,080 --> 03:44:44,880
Speaker 1: it will give Trump is going to have a tougher

4406
03:44:45,000 --> 03:44:48,400
Speaker 1: time consolidating you or getting some of the GOP elite

4407
03:44:48,480 --> 03:44:50,200
Speaker 1: to bow to him. I'm not saying that this will

4408
03:44:50,280 --> 03:44:53,880
Speaker 1: lead in any way to sometis you know, Dysantis win

4409
03:44:54,080 --> 03:44:55,840
Speaker 1: or any of that, but it will be difficult to

4410
03:44:56,240 --> 03:44:58,920
Speaker 1: say this Republican governor who just blew out Florid would

4411
03:44:58,920 --> 03:45:00,920
Speaker 1: turn it into a red state and won by twenty

4412
03:45:01,000 --> 03:45:03,800
Speaker 1: points in a way that you never could have. He

4413
03:45:03,840 --> 03:45:08,120
Speaker 1: outperforms you dramatically, mean by what sixteen points? Sixteen points? Right?

4414
03:45:08,160 --> 03:45:11,200
Speaker 1: Trump won by three point five, Desanta's is now up

4415
03:45:11,240 --> 03:45:14,520
Speaker 1: by twenty, so seventeen points, they're sixteen five. Sorry for

4416
03:45:15,240 --> 03:45:18,520
Speaker 1: he's out there, Charlie. See this is the This is

4417
03:45:18,560 --> 03:45:21,560
Speaker 1: gonna be a tough one because Trump was planning Trump

4418
03:45:21,680 --> 03:45:25,440
Speaker 1: was planning on running for in twenty twenty four on

4419
03:45:25,760 --> 03:45:28,800
Speaker 1: the back of a red wave. On the expected red wave. Now,

4420
03:45:28,959 --> 03:45:30,959
Speaker 1: I still think he's going to run. I still think

4421
03:45:31,000 --> 03:45:34,320
Speaker 1: he will win the nomination, to be clear, but this

4422
03:45:34,440 --> 03:45:37,360
Speaker 1: will make it a little bit more interesting. We're gonna

4423
03:45:37,360 --> 03:45:39,360
Speaker 1: have to see like what the Kopia wants to come

4424
03:45:39,440 --> 03:45:41,400
Speaker 1: up with, and I think it will make Mitch McConnell

4425
03:45:41,440 --> 03:45:44,040
Speaker 1: and all of them be willing to buck him much

4426
03:45:44,160 --> 03:45:46,600
Speaker 1: longer than they would have in the event of a

4427
03:45:46,680 --> 03:45:50,160
Speaker 1: red wave scenario. That's a very interesting and good point

4428
03:45:50,240 --> 03:45:52,400
Speaker 1: because yeah, I mean, he's announcing next week and the

4429
03:45:52,480 --> 03:45:56,320
Speaker 1: thought was there's gonna be a red tsunami tsunamid nominee.

4430
03:45:57,280 --> 03:46:01,760
Speaker 1: Now you know it's been four hours, folks, there's going

4431
03:46:01,840 --> 03:46:06,000
Speaker 1: to be red tsunami. I'm gonna take credit. Now you're

4432
03:46:06,000 --> 03:46:08,840
Speaker 1: taking credit for the like twelve house seats that they

4433
03:46:09,080 --> 03:46:11,840
Speaker 1: pick up and the maybe they get to fifty to

4434
03:46:11,879 --> 03:46:15,040
Speaker 1: fifty again in the Senate. No, it's a less compelling picture.

4435
03:46:15,080 --> 03:46:17,080
Speaker 1: I think that's right. Okay, soccer, we do soccer. We

4436
03:46:17,160 --> 03:46:19,160
Speaker 1: do a gift bag for you. Oh what is it?

4437
03:46:19,640 --> 03:46:22,400
Speaker 1: What you sean? Patrick Maloney down by ten points? Oh?

4438
03:46:23,600 --> 03:46:32,480
Speaker 1: I like that, all right, that's an Ye, We're all true. Yeah, Okay, guys,

4439
03:46:32,600 --> 03:46:34,880
Speaker 1: everybody stick around. We're gonna play the ads again just

4440
03:46:34,879 --> 03:46:36,680
Speaker 1: so we can all switch things up. Emily and Ryan

4441
03:46:36,720 --> 03:46:38,400
Speaker 1: they're going to be here at the desk at least

4442
03:46:38,480 --> 03:46:40,960
Speaker 1: until midnight, longer if they need to. So we've got

4443
03:46:41,000 --> 03:46:43,480
Speaker 1: a lot of stuff for all of you for the team.

4444
03:46:43,760 --> 03:46:46,039
Speaker 1: Go ahead, I go. I just want to remind everybody

4445
03:46:46,320 --> 03:46:49,160
Speaker 1: that the reason that we have Emily and Ryan and

4446
03:46:49,240 --> 03:46:51,960
Speaker 1: that they are part of our beautiful family here is

4447
03:46:52,080 --> 03:46:56,040
Speaker 1: because of you guys. You made counterpoints possible, and I mean,

4448
03:46:56,240 --> 03:46:58,360
Speaker 1: you guys are doing such a phenomenal job. I'm a

4449
03:46:58,440 --> 03:47:00,600
Speaker 1: genuine fan of the show. I don't know sure episode.

4450
03:47:00,760 --> 03:47:03,879
Speaker 1: The response we've gotten from everybody has just been overwhelmingly positive.

4451
03:47:04,200 --> 03:47:06,840
Speaker 1: Premium subscribers are over the moon about it. So thank

4452
03:47:06,879 --> 03:47:09,640
Speaker 1: you to you guys for making that happen. Reminder, there's

4453
03:47:09,640 --> 03:47:12,560
Speaker 1: a discount link in the description at the top of

4454
03:47:12,600 --> 03:47:14,560
Speaker 1: the chat too, Yes, top to the chat in the

4455
03:47:14,640 --> 03:47:16,800
Speaker 1: description this stuff. Look, it costs a lot of money

4456
03:47:17,080 --> 03:47:19,960
Speaker 1: renting the studio. We've got the full crew, Ryan's chair,

4457
03:47:20,200 --> 03:47:24,520
Speaker 1: Ryan's hair. That's a day to day expense that we

4458
03:47:24,640 --> 03:47:27,720
Speaker 1: have just in order to keep it looking just like that, everybody,

4459
03:47:27,879 --> 03:47:30,280
Speaker 1: can you imagine? All right, So look here's the deal.

4460
03:47:30,800 --> 03:47:34,480
Speaker 1: Now the election, we're nearing the end for that, so

4461
03:47:34,879 --> 03:47:36,600
Speaker 1: we have to gear up also for twenty twenty four.

4462
03:47:36,680 --> 03:47:38,840
Speaker 1: So if you enjoyed this, we've got two years now

4463
03:47:38,920 --> 03:47:40,840
Speaker 1: to build so we can have even better election live

4464
03:47:40,879 --> 03:47:43,320
Speaker 1: stream in that year. So to all of you who

4465
03:47:43,320 --> 03:47:45,720
Speaker 1: have helped us, it is just so we can't thank

4466
03:47:45,720 --> 03:47:48,080
Speaker 1: you all enough in order to make this possible. It's

4467
03:47:48,160 --> 03:47:49,680
Speaker 1: very nice to be at this desk and not over

4468
03:47:49,760 --> 03:47:52,760
Speaker 1: at the hell desk for an election night, So you

4469
03:47:52,840 --> 03:47:55,920
Speaker 1: guys stick around. They will be here in our chairs

4470
03:47:56,120 --> 03:47:58,200
Speaker 1: in five minutes and then they're going to continue on

4471
03:47:58,240 --> 03:48:00,480
Speaker 1: through the night. Christal will be and I'll be back

4472
03:48:00,560 --> 03:48:03,720
Speaker 1: on for breaking points tomorrow morning for a full show.

4473
03:48:03,879 --> 03:48:05,600
Speaker 1: We'll try and get it out as early as possible,

4474
03:48:05,760 --> 03:48:07,320
Speaker 1: just because we know how we want to sleep with

4475
03:48:07,400 --> 03:48:11,160
Speaker 1: my keep on yes right there, pro maybe I won't shower,

4476
03:48:11,320 --> 03:48:15,080
Speaker 1: maybe we'll be able to tell with the uh with Okay, guys,

4477
03:48:15,160 --> 03:48:16,880
Speaker 1: we'll see you guys. You guys have been back in

4478
03:48:17,000 --> 03:48:19,400
Speaker 1: five stick around. Emily and Ryan are taking over the desk.

4479
03:48:20,560 --> 03:48:23,720
Speaker 1: Welcome back to the streams and saga's gone, so we

4480
03:48:23,760 --> 03:48:26,000
Speaker 1: can talk about drugs now gone, so we can talk

4481
03:48:26,040 --> 03:48:28,760
Speaker 1: about drugs. We're talking about in the sort of broader

4482
03:48:28,840 --> 03:48:31,640
Speaker 1: context about how this hasn't been necessarily a tsunami, that

4483
03:48:31,920 --> 03:48:34,360
Speaker 1: the evidence is not indicating what a lot of Republican

4484
03:48:34,760 --> 03:48:37,200
Speaker 1: and prognosticators sort of in the Beltway in general, thought

4485
03:48:37,280 --> 03:48:39,480
Speaker 1: might happen over the last few days, that this could

4486
03:48:39,600 --> 03:48:42,800
Speaker 1: be a trouncing of shellacking in the words of President Obama,

4487
03:48:42,879 --> 03:48:45,240
Speaker 1: what was that in twenty ten or twenty fourteen, and

4488
03:48:45,320 --> 03:48:48,160
Speaker 1: a thumping That's what George Bush called his two thousand

4489
03:48:48,160 --> 03:48:50,440
Speaker 1: and six loss thumping, and then and then Obama went

4490
03:48:50,480 --> 03:48:53,800
Speaker 1: with shellacking shellackin all right, Well, Ryan, we've been covering,

4491
03:48:54,040 --> 03:48:56,680
Speaker 1: you know, a lot of these candidates different races, but

4492
03:48:56,920 --> 03:48:59,920
Speaker 1: you're following the ballot referendums really closely. And by the way,

4493
03:49:00,080 --> 03:49:02,720
Speaker 1: before Ryan digs into the numbers, let's remember that the

4494
03:49:02,879 --> 03:49:06,400
Speaker 1: ballot referendums actually are very relevant to what's happening with

4495
03:49:06,520 --> 03:49:10,280
Speaker 1: these candidates, because if you have people showing up for abortion,

4496
03:49:10,760 --> 03:49:12,800
Speaker 1: let's say, in a state like Michigan, when that's where

4497
03:49:12,840 --> 03:49:15,240
Speaker 1: that's on the referendum, if you have people showing up

4498
03:49:15,320 --> 03:49:18,680
Speaker 1: for weed, for psychedelics. That makes a difference in some

4499
03:49:18,800 --> 03:49:21,160
Speaker 1: of these very close elections. And that's not a thing

4500
03:49:21,240 --> 03:49:24,240
Speaker 1: that a lot of legacy media folks factored into their predictions.

4501
03:49:24,880 --> 03:49:26,960
Speaker 1: What is it looking like right now, because it's so

4502
03:49:27,040 --> 03:49:29,040
Speaker 1: hard to know who's going to come out, and usually

4503
03:49:29,320 --> 03:49:31,960
Speaker 1: it is usually you can tell on the side of

4504
03:49:32,040 --> 03:49:37,400
Speaker 1: the intensity. So if it's a psychedelic referendum, for instance,

4505
03:49:37,440 --> 03:49:40,400
Speaker 1: like in Colorado, there aren't many people who are like

4506
03:49:41,040 --> 03:49:44,560
Speaker 1: rabidly hostile to psychedelics and are like only going to

4507
03:49:44,680 --> 03:49:47,240
Speaker 1: vote so that they can vote against psychedelics. But you

4508
03:49:47,320 --> 03:49:50,520
Speaker 1: are going to have a handful of people who will

4509
03:49:50,600 --> 03:49:52,200
Speaker 1: hear that it's on the ballot and they'll come out.

4510
03:49:52,240 --> 03:49:54,040
Speaker 1: Now that numbers have gone way down, you want to

4511
03:49:54,080 --> 03:49:56,160
Speaker 1: check Bobert while I'm looking at this. By the way,

4512
03:49:56,320 --> 03:49:59,880
Speaker 1: great point. So in so Colorado proposition one twenty two,

4513
03:50:00,080 --> 03:50:02,720
Speaker 1: this is this is to lea to decriminalize a bunch

4514
03:50:02,720 --> 03:50:05,800
Speaker 1: of different psychedelics. It's now up by six points. It

4515
03:50:05,920 --> 03:50:08,680
Speaker 1: was up it was up a ton earlier. So that

4516
03:50:09,280 --> 03:50:11,760
Speaker 1: that was probably because Boulder and Denver were coming in first,

4517
03:50:11,840 --> 03:50:13,960
Speaker 1: and now some of the rural areas are are coming in.

4518
03:50:14,080 --> 03:50:17,520
Speaker 1: So it's not clear if this is going to actually

4519
03:50:17,600 --> 03:50:20,720
Speaker 1: help Vobert or not. But separate from that, it looks

4520
03:50:20,760 --> 03:50:23,560
Speaker 1: like it's it looks like it's still in strong shape,

4521
03:50:23,880 --> 03:50:27,200
Speaker 1: which is itself a good thing. Like the more I

4522
03:50:27,280 --> 03:50:30,560
Speaker 1: think the more that we can remove penalties around around

4523
03:50:30,920 --> 03:50:34,800
Speaker 1: uh psychedelics, the better uh, you know, the better world

4524
03:50:34,880 --> 03:50:39,040
Speaker 1: that this becomes. Like also like as we're like facing

4525
03:50:39,600 --> 03:50:43,240
Speaker 1: this like dystopian future, where like we were talking earlier

4526
03:50:43,360 --> 03:50:46,760
Speaker 1: about people's views on the economy and whether or not

4527
03:50:46,800 --> 03:50:48,840
Speaker 1: whether they thought Republicans would make it better, whether the

4528
03:50:49,080 --> 03:50:51,120
Speaker 1: Democrats would think it make it better. I think we're

4529
03:50:51,160 --> 03:50:53,960
Speaker 1: going to find going forward over over the next decade

4530
03:50:54,080 --> 03:50:56,600
Speaker 1: or so that voters aren't going to think anybody is

4531
03:50:56,640 --> 03:50:59,360
Speaker 1: going to make anything better. That that people feel that

4532
03:50:59,440 --> 03:51:02,480
Speaker 1: we're just on a glide paths of doom and the

4533
03:51:02,560 --> 03:51:06,160
Speaker 1: one bright spot it's like at least at least bring

4534
03:51:06,280 --> 03:51:09,520
Speaker 1: psychedelics out of the shadows. It does depend on how

4535
03:51:09,560 --> 03:51:13,400
Speaker 1: these referendums are written, and there have been psychedelic referendums

4536
03:51:13,400 --> 03:51:16,160
Speaker 1: that I've seen, for instance here in DC, that people

4537
03:51:16,280 --> 03:51:18,680
Speaker 1: may be favorable to until you kind of read the referendum,

4538
03:51:18,720 --> 03:51:19,960
Speaker 1: you're like, there was a better way to write that.

4539
03:51:20,080 --> 03:51:22,280
Speaker 1: There was a more consensus way to write that that said,

4540
03:51:22,920 --> 03:51:25,280
Speaker 1: ran you, you pulled some really interesting numbers about what

4541
03:51:25,400 --> 03:51:29,560
Speaker 1: happened in Kentucky with their abortion reference, and let's just quick,

4542
03:51:30,000 --> 03:51:34,240
Speaker 1: how are they holding up that. Let me update everyone

4543
03:51:34,320 --> 03:51:38,040
Speaker 1: on Bobert. Bobert is Lauren Bobert. We flagged this over

4544
03:51:38,080 --> 03:51:41,040
Speaker 1: the course of the last hour because CBS News actually

4545
03:51:41,160 --> 03:51:44,040
Speaker 1: flagged it and said we could have an upset brewing

4546
03:51:44,200 --> 03:51:47,960
Speaker 1: in Colorado's third district, and indeed that is continuing. We're

4547
03:51:47,960 --> 03:51:51,200
Speaker 1: seeing a really I think shocking. I mean, it's not shocking,

4548
03:51:51,360 --> 03:51:55,080
Speaker 1: I guess in terms of candidate quality, but shocking in

4549
03:51:55,160 --> 03:51:58,440
Speaker 1: terms of that. It was on absolutely nobody's radar. Nobody's

4550
03:51:58,520 --> 03:52:01,600
Speaker 1: radar on the right, nobody's radar the center, maybe nobody's right.

4551
03:52:01,760 --> 03:52:05,320
Speaker 1: On the left. Adam Frish, the Democratic candidate, is up

4552
03:52:05,440 --> 03:52:09,000
Speaker 1: by so he's up fifty one point eight percent to Bobert,

4553
03:52:09,120 --> 03:52:12,000
Speaker 1: Lauren Bobert, who is at forty eight point two percent.

4554
03:52:12,200 --> 03:52:16,600
Speaker 1: That's what seventy one percent of votes counted. That's a

4555
03:52:16,640 --> 03:52:21,240
Speaker 1: big deal because again, there was this idea that we

4556
03:52:21,400 --> 03:52:23,880
Speaker 1: were going into a tsunami, which, by the way, I'll

4557
03:52:24,040 --> 03:52:26,680
Speaker 1: freely admit I thought was a possibility. It's not a

4558
03:52:26,720 --> 03:52:28,800
Speaker 1: prediction I would have ever written in stone, but I

4559
03:52:28,840 --> 03:52:30,680
Speaker 1: thought it was. It was a possibility that we might

4560
03:52:30,720 --> 03:52:33,440
Speaker 1: have been looking at over the last few days, given

4561
03:52:33,480 --> 03:52:37,320
Speaker 1: where some of these numbers were trending. But and again,

4562
03:52:37,600 --> 03:52:39,720
Speaker 1: it could still be a very good night for Republicans.

4563
03:52:39,760 --> 03:52:42,320
Speaker 1: We don't totally know yet. It's it is falling short

4564
03:52:42,360 --> 03:52:44,800
Speaker 1: of those fantasy predictions, There's no question about it. And

4565
03:52:44,840 --> 03:52:47,600
Speaker 1: I think Bobart Bobert being down in the poll, she's

4566
03:52:47,640 --> 03:52:50,960
Speaker 1: a very very maggot candidate, as many people know to

4567
03:52:51,040 --> 03:52:55,480
Speaker 1: say the very least. That is, it's getting into territory

4568
03:52:55,480 --> 03:52:57,400
Speaker 1: where it's looking like this might not this night might

4569
03:52:57,480 --> 03:52:59,440
Speaker 1: be a win for Mitch McConnell and a loss for

4570
03:52:59,520 --> 03:53:03,040
Speaker 1: Donald Trump. Yeah, and could also be a loss for OZ.

4571
03:53:03,120 --> 03:53:06,440
Speaker 1: And apparently we have we have a live update from OZ.

4572
03:53:06,520 --> 03:53:10,760
Speaker 1: Can we do we have them? Right? Excellent? Oh, welcome,

4573
03:53:10,880 --> 03:53:13,320
Speaker 1: welcome back. We weren't on the first time we were

4574
03:53:13,360 --> 03:53:18,200
Speaker 1: in the control room watching your update, Lewis. So what

4575
03:53:18,440 --> 03:53:20,560
Speaker 1: was the mood like at the beginning of the night,

4576
03:53:20,680 --> 03:53:25,560
Speaker 1: and what's the mood like now? Yeah, thanks for having

4577
03:53:25,560 --> 03:53:28,680
Speaker 1: me back on, guys, goodness evil. Yeah, the mood in

4578
03:53:28,760 --> 03:53:31,920
Speaker 1: the room has definitely shifted a little bit more negative.

4579
03:53:32,280 --> 03:53:35,480
Speaker 1: The first real mood shift was when Fox News, which

4580
03:53:35,520 --> 03:53:37,880
Speaker 1: is actually playing on the big screens back here behind

4581
03:53:37,920 --> 03:53:40,440
Speaker 1: me if you can't hear them, when Fox News called

4582
03:53:40,520 --> 03:53:44,320
Speaker 1: the governor's race for Shapiro. There were definitely some audible

4583
03:53:44,400 --> 03:53:49,640
Speaker 1: groans in size throughout the room. Some Yeah, definitely a

4584
03:53:49,720 --> 03:53:53,680
Speaker 1: five shift when that happened. Otherwise, folks are still watching.

4585
03:53:54,240 --> 03:53:57,280
Speaker 1: There's still some moptimism that the Bulls might turn around,

4586
03:53:57,360 --> 03:54:00,120
Speaker 1: but at this stage in the game, I'm definitely of

4587
03:54:00,200 --> 03:54:04,320
Speaker 1: Oriz to see betterment still with the lead here as

4588
03:54:04,400 --> 03:54:07,200
Speaker 1: more and more results are coming through. Wasn't what I

4589
03:54:07,320 --> 03:54:11,160
Speaker 1: was predicting, you know. Yeah, but the moodshift has definitely

4590
03:54:11,200 --> 03:54:13,480
Speaker 1: happened quite a bit. If you're just joining us now,

4591
03:54:13,520 --> 03:54:16,560
Speaker 1: we're with Louis Dangelis, who is at doctor Oz doctor

4592
03:54:16,600 --> 03:54:18,760
Speaker 1: Roger's victory party. We'll see if it actually is a

4593
03:54:18,840 --> 03:54:22,240
Speaker 1: victory party at Lewis. I'm curious. There's a lot of excitement.

4594
03:54:22,360 --> 03:54:24,440
Speaker 1: You know, you cover these things, you go to different places,

4595
03:54:24,760 --> 03:54:29,000
Speaker 1: do you since that there's excitement, particularly for doctor Oz.

4596
03:54:29,040 --> 03:54:30,560
Speaker 1: You know, if you go to a Trump rally. It's

4597
03:54:30,600 --> 03:54:32,840
Speaker 1: not as though there's all of this excitement for the

4598
03:54:32,920 --> 03:54:35,520
Speaker 1: Republican Party. If you're at a Bernie rally, it's not

4599
03:54:35,640 --> 03:54:38,040
Speaker 1: as though there's tons of excitement for the Democratic Party.

4600
03:54:38,480 --> 03:54:42,200
Speaker 1: Is there a particular sense of excitement for doctor Oz

4601
03:54:42,440 --> 03:54:45,200
Speaker 1: as a candidate? This man is a massive television star

4602
03:54:45,320 --> 03:54:48,320
Speaker 1: for years and years and years. But are people behind

4603
03:54:48,440 --> 03:54:51,600
Speaker 1: him personally or are they sort of anti Fetterman, anti

4604
03:54:51,760 --> 03:54:56,360
Speaker 1: dem I think kind of on both sides of this,

4605
03:54:56,880 --> 03:55:00,360
Speaker 1: I haven't heard that many folks excited excited about either candidate.

4606
03:55:00,400 --> 03:55:02,160
Speaker 1: I kind of talked a little bit about this earlier,

4607
03:55:03,000 --> 03:55:05,200
Speaker 1: you know, when we were at the Trump event on

4608
03:55:05,360 --> 03:55:08,240
Speaker 1: Saturday night and I was talking to folks there, and

4609
03:55:08,960 --> 03:55:10,840
Speaker 1: the first five or six people I talked to, they

4610
03:55:10,840 --> 03:55:12,600
Speaker 1: said they were going to be voting for Oz, but

4611
03:55:12,960 --> 03:55:14,920
Speaker 1: they weren't that excited about it. For a lot of

4612
03:55:15,000 --> 03:55:18,200
Speaker 1: those folks, Oz was not their first choice. The same

4613
03:55:18,240 --> 03:55:20,640
Speaker 1: thing goes for Fretterman, though, And one anecdote that I

4614
03:55:20,720 --> 03:55:23,840
Speaker 1: definitely want to share is that this is more so

4615
03:55:23,960 --> 03:55:28,080
Speaker 1: with Betterman. Voters and folks had those events, Like I mentioned,

4616
03:55:28,120 --> 03:55:30,720
Speaker 1: they weren't super excited about him. But I asked people

4617
03:55:31,440 --> 03:55:34,720
Speaker 1: what's your number one issue? Despite what a lot of

4618
03:55:34,800 --> 03:55:36,760
Speaker 1: the polling has kind of been saying over the last

4619
03:55:36,800 --> 03:55:39,400
Speaker 1: couple of weeks, a lot of people's number one issue

4620
03:55:39,440 --> 03:55:44,920
Speaker 1: is still abortion, especially with Democrat voters. And you know, I, personally,

4621
03:55:45,280 --> 03:55:47,640
Speaker 1: similarly to what you all have said in the past,

4622
03:55:47,840 --> 03:55:51,480
Speaker 1: thought that inflation was number one on all sorts of

4623
03:55:51,520 --> 03:55:54,440
Speaker 1: this stuff. But abortion seems to potentially be playing a

4624
03:55:54,480 --> 03:55:56,560
Speaker 1: bigger role in all of this than we initially thought

4625
03:55:56,600 --> 03:55:59,960
Speaker 1: it might. Interesting. I see you're in the press area

4626
03:56:00,120 --> 03:56:02,640
Speaker 1: over there. Have you talked to other reporters, what what? What?

4627
03:56:02,840 --> 03:56:06,600
Speaker 1: What's the reporter's conventional wisdom as they're watching the numbers

4628
03:56:06,640 --> 03:56:11,240
Speaker 1: come in. Surprised? Yeah, we're all kind of in there.

4629
03:56:11,320 --> 03:56:13,760
Speaker 1: We were all surprised to see first the you know,

4630
03:56:14,160 --> 03:56:16,920
Speaker 1: we're not surprised to see Shapiro having won that race,

4631
03:56:17,040 --> 03:56:19,760
Speaker 1: but having it me as larger of a margin as

4632
03:56:19,800 --> 03:56:23,160
Speaker 1: it is, and how quickly it's being called. And again

4633
03:56:23,280 --> 03:56:26,160
Speaker 1: surprised that Betterment is still up right now. I mean,

4634
03:56:26,280 --> 03:56:28,120
Speaker 1: I didn't envision, and a lot of the folks that

4635
03:56:28,160 --> 03:56:30,960
Speaker 1: I've been chatting with didn't envision a scenario where Oz

4636
03:56:31,080 --> 03:56:33,360
Speaker 1: wasn't up at this point. And then as the mail

4637
03:56:33,400 --> 03:56:36,560
Speaker 1: in ballance start to come in. Uh, you know, Betterment

4638
03:56:36,760 --> 03:56:38,840
Speaker 1: slowly chips away at the lead, trips away at the lead,

4639
03:56:39,320 --> 03:56:41,880
Speaker 1: like we saw with you know, the election with President

4640
03:56:41,920 --> 03:56:46,640
Speaker 1: Trump and Biden in twenty twenty. I just again, I

4641
03:56:46,680 --> 03:56:49,160
Speaker 1: don't think any of us are really envisioning the scenario

4642
03:56:49,320 --> 03:56:51,840
Speaker 1: where better mccamp was in the position that it is

4643
03:56:51,920 --> 03:56:54,960
Speaker 1: and the OZ campaign is down at the moment, I

4644
03:56:55,040 --> 03:56:58,760
Speaker 1: am hearing some cheers behind me. I'm not sure what

4645
03:56:59,040 --> 03:57:01,240
Speaker 1: exactly that is. Bill just as too early to call

4646
03:57:01,400 --> 03:57:06,160
Speaker 1: okay there, but you know how it goes, I don't know. Yeah,

4647
03:57:06,920 --> 03:57:09,240
Speaker 1: well yeah, and let's I mean, maybe it's splitting hairs.

4648
03:57:09,320 --> 03:57:13,200
Speaker 1: But you've been there sort of gauging everybody's temperature. Is

4649
03:57:13,360 --> 03:57:15,960
Speaker 1: there cautious You said this a little bit earlier, But

4650
03:57:16,240 --> 03:57:18,360
Speaker 1: if we can just keep pulling out that thread, is

4651
03:57:18,400 --> 03:57:21,400
Speaker 1: it a sense of cautious optimism? Because in truth, you know,

4652
03:57:21,440 --> 03:57:23,880
Speaker 1: I think I think it is surprising to I think

4653
03:57:23,920 --> 03:57:26,040
Speaker 1: it's probably surprising to me that it's as close as

4654
03:57:26,080 --> 03:57:28,440
Speaker 1: it is right now in the night. But that doesn't

4655
03:57:28,480 --> 03:57:30,600
Speaker 1: mean it's over. It certainly doesn't mean it's over. It

4656
03:57:30,680 --> 03:57:34,000
Speaker 1: could go one of two ways, obviously, So what is

4657
03:57:34,200 --> 03:57:38,320
Speaker 1: the do people still feel okay? Is everybody depressed or

4658
03:57:38,400 --> 03:57:40,480
Speaker 1: are they like, all right, well, we're just going to

4659
03:57:40,520 --> 03:57:43,280
Speaker 1: be here longer than we thought we would. You know,

4660
03:57:43,400 --> 03:57:45,880
Speaker 1: I wouldn't I wouldn't say depressed. Yet, Yes, I agree.

4661
03:57:45,920 --> 03:57:47,720
Speaker 1: I think it's more of a I think we're going

4662
03:57:47,760 --> 03:57:50,320
Speaker 1: to be here longer than we thought, but definitely concerned

4663
03:57:50,360 --> 03:57:54,200
Speaker 1: in the eyes. If you will, yeah, it's yeah, it's

4664
03:57:54,360 --> 03:57:57,760
Speaker 1: it's it's less less excitement than I thought was going

4665
03:57:57,800 --> 03:58:01,840
Speaker 1: to be going on if if you will, any good

4666
03:58:01,920 --> 03:58:07,240
Speaker 1: anecdotes of interactions with OZ voters you can share, Yeah,

4667
03:58:07,360 --> 03:58:09,480
Speaker 1: for sure. I talked a little bit about this one

4668
03:58:09,560 --> 03:58:13,720
Speaker 1: or earlier. But first I met a bunch of different

4669
03:58:13,800 --> 03:58:18,280
Speaker 1: folks who were OZ voters, but they were also Shapiro voters.

4670
03:58:19,200 --> 03:58:21,440
Speaker 1: A couple of volunteers for the OZ campaign that I

4671
03:58:21,520 --> 03:58:25,000
Speaker 1: spoke with earlier. Obviously, like when folks who are out

4672
03:58:25,040 --> 03:58:28,200
Speaker 1: canvassing and whatnot, usually the parties work together, and if

4673
03:58:28,240 --> 03:58:30,520
Speaker 1: you're putting out signs for one candidate, you might also

4674
03:58:30,560 --> 03:58:33,120
Speaker 1: be doing it for the other. And a lot of

4675
03:58:33,200 --> 03:58:37,920
Speaker 1: the OZ volunteers were telling me that they weren't necessarily

4676
03:58:37,960 --> 03:58:40,640
Speaker 1: excited about putting Masterriano signs out as well, and they

4677
03:58:40,680 --> 03:58:43,280
Speaker 1: don't necessarily support him. They think he goes a little

4678
03:58:43,280 --> 03:58:45,440
Speaker 1: bit too far on issues like abortion. They think he

4679
03:58:45,880 --> 03:58:48,960
Speaker 1: goes a little too far on some of the certifying

4680
03:58:49,000 --> 03:58:51,160
Speaker 1: of the election comments that he's made in the past.

4681
03:58:51,320 --> 03:58:55,240
Speaker 1: So that was that was an interesting anecdote. Another interesting

4682
03:58:55,480 --> 03:58:56,880
Speaker 1: thing that happened in the room, and I want to

4683
03:58:57,000 --> 03:58:59,040
Speaker 1: shout out one of these people. After I was on

4684
03:58:59,120 --> 03:59:02,880
Speaker 1: the first time, a Breaking Points premium member from the

4685
03:59:02,960 --> 03:59:05,960
Speaker 1: crowd in here came out and bound me. Her name

4686
03:59:06,040 --> 03:59:07,880
Speaker 1: is Samantha. I told her I would shout her out,

4687
03:59:08,000 --> 03:59:10,520
Speaker 1: so if she's still listening Jumpsters, she'll probably pop back over.

4688
03:59:10,960 --> 03:59:14,280
Speaker 1: And then actually an OZ staff person came over and

4689
03:59:14,440 --> 03:59:16,840
Speaker 1: the OZ staff member was listening to Breaking Points in

4690
03:59:16,920 --> 03:59:19,480
Speaker 1: his ear and came and found me as well, which

4691
03:59:19,520 --> 03:59:22,360
Speaker 1: is pretty cool. I gotta say that's awesome. Do you

4692
03:59:22,720 --> 03:59:25,640
Speaker 1: get what kind of shwag do you have that shows

4693
03:59:25,680 --> 03:59:30,160
Speaker 1: that you're like Breaking Points? I actually don't have any

4694
03:59:30,680 --> 03:59:33,000
Speaker 1: Breaking Points swag with me. Maybe you guys can hook

4695
03:59:33,000 --> 03:59:41,720
Speaker 1: it up for next time. Well counterpoints counterpoint, well yeah, yes,

4696
03:59:42,000 --> 03:59:45,360
Speaker 1: Crystal and Sager did not offer me that earlier, So yeah,

4697
03:59:45,480 --> 03:59:49,720
Speaker 1: you guys, what we'll do The counterpoints stuff excellent. So

4698
03:59:50,160 --> 03:59:52,520
Speaker 1: she just saw you and the staffer heard you. So

4699
03:59:52,600 --> 03:59:55,320
Speaker 1: that's that's how they saw me. They saw and they

4700
03:59:55,400 --> 03:59:57,120
Speaker 1: came and found me in the press area. The dress

4701
03:59:57,240 --> 04:00:01,400
Speaker 1: are very much weaseled into a tiny, little cooped up area.

4702
04:00:01,520 --> 04:00:04,440
Speaker 1: We don't have much space to move around. So yeah,

4703
04:00:04,640 --> 04:00:06,560
Speaker 1: if folks are interested, I can try to and then

4704
04:00:06,560 --> 04:00:08,080
Speaker 1: I'll let you guys get back to it. I can

4705
04:00:08,120 --> 04:00:10,040
Speaker 1: give a quick little we'll see if it works. If

4706
04:00:10,080 --> 04:00:17,480
Speaker 1: it doesn't, feel free to pull away. Yeah, yeah, well, yes,

4707
04:00:17,600 --> 04:00:21,000
Speaker 1: it's it's actually at a flooding club, I think, like

4708
04:00:21,160 --> 04:00:26,560
Speaker 1: a country club type five, but without the uh a

4709
04:00:26,600 --> 04:00:29,080
Speaker 1: little bit of the room here on the other side,

4710
04:00:30,120 --> 04:00:32,960
Speaker 1: on the other side of all the cameras there, it's

4711
04:00:33,000 --> 04:00:35,160
Speaker 1: a little area where we've got our laptops and what

4712
04:00:35,320 --> 04:00:37,600
Speaker 1: not set up. But uh, I will say, I do

4713
04:00:37,760 --> 04:00:40,680
Speaker 1: think that we're probably the only real independent outlet here,

4714
04:00:40,680 --> 04:00:44,920
Speaker 1: which is pretty awesome as well. Mostly just uh the

4715
04:00:45,200 --> 04:00:48,600
Speaker 1: big guys are here, local TV stations and whatnot, but

4716
04:00:48,680 --> 04:00:51,840
Speaker 1: definitely not seeing any other independent Well, Lewis, We'll try

4717
04:00:51,880 --> 04:00:54,880
Speaker 1: to get back to you later. Go ask them. Go

4718
04:00:55,000 --> 04:00:59,040
Speaker 1: ask folks there what what the hell happened? How their

4719
04:00:59,120 --> 04:01:02,320
Speaker 1: Man couldn't sell this. He's he's been able to sell

4720
04:01:02,760 --> 04:01:04,880
Speaker 1: all sorts of things that anybody, all kinds oft but

4721
04:01:05,000 --> 04:01:07,360
Speaker 1: he couldn't sell this. Well, we don't know. He may

4722
04:01:07,440 --> 04:01:10,120
Speaker 1: come back, we really, yeah, we don't way. We might

4723
04:01:10,160 --> 04:01:12,680
Speaker 1: not have like really confidence in these results for the

4724
04:01:12,800 --> 04:01:14,840
Speaker 1: next few days because they're having a lot of issues

4725
04:01:14,920 --> 04:01:19,120
Speaker 1: counting in Philadelphia based on different cases and reconciliation and

4726
04:01:19,320 --> 04:01:23,240
Speaker 1: all dated ballots and all that kod stuff. Lewis, thank

4727
04:01:23,280 --> 04:01:26,640
Speaker 1: you so much. It was fantastic. We really appreciate it. Yeah,

4728
04:01:26,720 --> 04:01:30,920
Speaker 1: thanks for having me us awesome. New York Times still

4729
04:01:30,960 --> 04:01:33,280
Speaker 1: has him up by fifty thousand votes, and New York

4730
04:01:33,320 --> 04:01:36,440
Speaker 1: Times is slower, so you might have Fetterman up by

4731
04:01:36,480 --> 04:01:39,240
Speaker 1: fifty thousand, up by fifty thousand votes, and so that's

4732
04:01:39,280 --> 04:01:42,120
Speaker 1: not a small gap at this point, Like that's seventy

4733
04:01:42,160 --> 04:01:44,960
Speaker 1: one percent in fifty thousand up. That's you'd rather be Fetterman.

4734
04:01:45,080 --> 04:01:47,520
Speaker 1: They're absolutely rather be fed. Yeah, and especially with the

4735
04:01:47,600 --> 04:01:50,760
Speaker 1: remaining I mean, this is your home turf point literally, Yeah,

4736
04:01:50,800 --> 04:01:55,200
Speaker 1: you got the Philadelphia suburbs you got Yeah, and they're

4737
04:01:55,560 --> 04:02:01,440
Speaker 1: still counting so Philadelphia. Do they count mail in ballots later? Yes,

4738
04:02:01,520 --> 04:02:04,240
Speaker 1: So that's what I thought. That's a big advantage. Yes,

4739
04:02:04,360 --> 04:02:09,160
Speaker 1: And it's because there was a lawsuit that like banned

4740
04:02:09,240 --> 04:02:14,320
Speaker 1: them from counting them earlier by Republicans, and so they're

4741
04:02:14,440 --> 04:02:16,520
Speaker 1: so they're moving them through now. But that's why it's

4742
04:02:16,560 --> 04:02:19,240
Speaker 1: taking That's why it's taking longer. So if any if

4743
04:02:19,280 --> 04:02:21,680
Speaker 1: you hear anybody complaining that Philadelphia takes so long, it's

4744
04:02:21,720 --> 04:02:24,800
Speaker 1: because Republicans sued them and stopped them from counting them

4745
04:02:24,840 --> 04:02:30,040
Speaker 1: earlier in the way that other counties are allowed to do. So. Yes,

4746
04:02:30,160 --> 04:02:32,760
Speaker 1: so you would if you were Fetterman and you were

4747
04:02:32,840 --> 04:02:35,600
Speaker 1: down by fifty thousand, you might be thinking, like, hey,

4748
04:02:36,160 --> 04:02:38,440
Speaker 1: I still have some hope. I'm probably gonna lose, but

4749
04:02:38,480 --> 04:02:41,120
Speaker 1: I have a hope Fetterman being up by fifty thousand

4750
04:02:41,120 --> 04:02:44,840
Speaker 1: at this point, I think he's feeling pretty good. We'll see.

4751
04:02:45,320 --> 04:02:48,840
Speaker 1: But but like you said, like the suburbs, how the

4752
04:02:48,920 --> 04:02:51,760
Speaker 1: suburbs come in, and how the culture wars, you know,

4753
04:02:51,880 --> 04:02:54,120
Speaker 1: shake out. We're going to talk. We'll talk to Terry Shilling,

4754
04:02:54,800 --> 04:02:57,520
Speaker 1: who's been, you know, waging the culture war all over

4755
04:02:57,560 --> 04:03:00,760
Speaker 1: the country in this in this camp. Pain is probably

4756
04:03:00,800 --> 04:03:06,000
Speaker 1: disappointed that it's at these results so far. Yeah, I

4757
04:03:06,040 --> 04:03:08,240
Speaker 1: don't know. I mean a lot of that was a

4758
04:03:08,320 --> 04:03:10,000
Speaker 1: lot of those efforts, and we'll ask Terry. I think

4759
04:03:10,040 --> 04:03:12,800
Speaker 1: he spent about fifteen million dollars on ads if I'm correct,

4760
04:03:13,440 --> 04:03:15,440
Speaker 1: and a lot of that there should be a lot

4761
04:03:15,480 --> 04:03:18,200
Speaker 1: of money. Yeah, a lot of that those in Arizona,

4762
04:03:18,960 --> 04:03:21,640
Speaker 1: and we just don't know what's happening in Arizona. We

4763
04:03:21,680 --> 04:03:24,560
Speaker 1: don't know what's happening with Catherine Cortez Masto. These are

4764
04:03:24,640 --> 04:03:27,640
Speaker 1: some big places. And Oregon is another place where you

4765
04:03:27,680 --> 04:03:30,640
Speaker 1: haven't had a governor that's Republican since the nineteen eighties.

4766
04:03:31,040 --> 04:03:32,960
Speaker 1: We have no idea what's happening in that race. But

4767
04:03:33,240 --> 04:03:36,800
Speaker 1: what we do have are indicators. For instance, from Virginia seven,

4768
04:03:37,160 --> 04:03:41,120
Speaker 1: that's Crystal's district where Abigail Spanberger seems to have eked

4769
04:03:41,160 --> 04:03:44,040
Speaker 1: out that win. It's been called she's eked out that win.

4770
04:03:44,120 --> 04:03:45,600
Speaker 1: And that was supposed to be one of the bell

4771
04:03:45,680 --> 04:03:48,680
Speaker 1: weather districts that not just for a tsunami, but just

4772
04:03:48,720 --> 04:03:50,920
Speaker 1: for a red wave. So a red wave would have

4773
04:03:50,960 --> 04:03:54,840
Speaker 1: been if Yesli Bargo wins Virginio seven, Republican just knocks

4774
04:03:54,880 --> 04:03:59,120
Speaker 1: out thecumbent Abigail Spamburger. It is a different district. But

4775
04:03:59,360 --> 04:04:02,120
Speaker 1: if that were the case, then people said, all right,

4776
04:04:02,160 --> 04:04:03,880
Speaker 1: then we can look at Jennifer Wexton, then we can

4777
04:04:03,920 --> 04:04:06,440
Speaker 1: look at Virginia ten. If she loses, then we're in

4778
04:04:06,600 --> 04:04:10,360
Speaker 1: for a tsunami. And that hasn't been the case. One

4779
04:04:10,480 --> 04:04:13,080
Speaker 1: thing that I think is important to start teasing out here, though,

4780
04:04:13,720 --> 04:04:18,520
Speaker 1: and this is this is kind of the the big

4781
04:04:18,640 --> 04:04:20,720
Speaker 1: story in the legacy media right now, and I think

4782
04:04:21,200 --> 04:04:24,800
Speaker 1: genuinely sort of across the board, because the narrative going

4783
04:04:24,880 --> 04:04:27,560
Speaker 1: into this was Momentum is building for Republicans. Momentum is

4784
04:04:27,600 --> 04:04:33,080
Speaker 1: building for Republicans. But at the same time, there was

4785
04:04:33,400 --> 04:04:35,360
Speaker 1: a lot of coverage over the course of the summer

4786
04:04:35,440 --> 04:04:38,360
Speaker 1: about how they were going to be shocking Democratic upsets,

4787
04:04:38,440 --> 04:04:42,720
Speaker 1: whether it's val Deming's toppling Mark or Rubio, whether it's

4788
04:04:43,320 --> 04:04:46,280
Speaker 1: like that was like a big jd Vance losing jd

4789
04:04:46,440 --> 04:04:48,400
Speaker 1: Vance has been called for jd Vance. As far as

4790
04:04:48,480 --> 04:04:51,120
Speaker 1: we know, jad Vance is going to handle that up

4791
04:04:51,200 --> 04:04:53,680
Speaker 1: by ten, He's going to handle that easily. I think

4792
04:04:53,760 --> 04:04:59,040
Speaker 1: what we're potentially looking at here are sort of spotty tsunamis,

4793
04:04:59,160 --> 04:05:01,880
Speaker 1: and that's just the numbers. Because one of the districts

4794
04:05:01,920 --> 04:05:05,240
Speaker 1: we've zeroed in on is Florida twenty seven. Florida twenty seven,

4795
04:05:05,800 --> 04:05:08,080
Speaker 1: And I hate to sound like a broken record, but

4796
04:05:08,120 --> 04:05:10,440
Speaker 1: if you're just tuning in here, now, that's a district

4797
04:05:10,600 --> 04:05:14,000
Speaker 1: that Donald Trump eked out a win in. If you

4798
04:05:14,040 --> 04:05:16,560
Speaker 1: look at the Daily Coast tabulations, which they do a

4799
04:05:16,600 --> 04:05:19,040
Speaker 1: really helpful thing. They put it a full spreadsheet so

4800
04:05:19,160 --> 04:05:22,240
Speaker 1: you can see how the new redrawn districts that people

4801
04:05:22,240 --> 04:05:25,200
Speaker 1: are voting in tonight would have voted in twenty twenty,

4802
04:05:25,480 --> 04:05:29,640
Speaker 1: just barely by the by like one percent. You get

4803
04:05:29,680 --> 04:05:32,120
Speaker 1: a win for Donald Trump in that district. Maria Elvirus

4804
04:05:32,200 --> 04:05:35,800
Speaker 1: Salazar Republican looks to have taken that by double digits.

4805
04:05:35,880 --> 04:05:37,360
Speaker 1: And that's going to be thanks in part to the

4806
04:05:37,440 --> 04:05:40,080
Speaker 1: Cuban vote, to the Hispanic vote. The Cuban vote is

4807
04:05:40,080 --> 04:05:42,320
Speaker 1: a very specific kind of vote. The Hispanic vote more

4808
04:05:42,320 --> 04:05:46,280
Speaker 1: broadly is not a monolith. But that is really really interesting.

4809
04:05:46,520 --> 04:05:50,560
Speaker 1: And again in Florida, we just see Ron de Santis

4810
04:05:50,680 --> 04:05:53,760
Speaker 1: outperforming Donald Trump. We see Mark or Rubio doing better

4811
04:05:53,840 --> 04:05:56,040
Speaker 1: than people expected him to. And where we're going to

4812
04:05:56,080 --> 04:05:59,280
Speaker 1: continue looking is Texas. If we see in the Rio

4813
04:05:59,360 --> 04:06:02,600
Speaker 1: Grand Valley numbers like that for Myrafloras in the thirty fourth,

4814
04:06:03,000 --> 04:06:05,600
Speaker 1: these are going to be where you see not the

4815
04:06:06,240 --> 04:06:09,960
Speaker 1: across the board tsunami, but you do see Republicans walking

4816
04:06:10,000 --> 04:06:13,040
Speaker 1: away from tonight. Potentially, we don't know yet with the

4817
04:06:13,160 --> 04:06:17,160
Speaker 1: sense that the realignment and when it comes to Hispanic voters,

4818
04:06:17,240 --> 04:06:20,080
Speaker 1: maybe if we're zooming into Milwaukee and Philadelphia over the

4819
04:06:20,200 --> 04:06:24,000
Speaker 1: next few days, maybe Democrats lose some enthusiasm, lose some

4820
04:06:24,080 --> 04:06:27,400
Speaker 1: support in the black vote. We don't know, but that's

4821
04:06:27,800 --> 04:06:30,280
Speaker 1: very much still on the table, especially given some of

4822
04:06:30,320 --> 04:06:32,440
Speaker 1: the results that are already in so to just sort

4823
04:06:32,480 --> 04:06:35,240
Speaker 1: of to poke a little bit of a hole in

4824
04:06:35,320 --> 04:06:37,640
Speaker 1: that broader narrative. And I'm not just saying this because

4825
04:06:37,840 --> 04:06:40,480
Speaker 1: I'm conservative. I'm saying this because I do think it's

4826
04:06:40,520 --> 04:06:44,960
Speaker 1: worth pushing back a little bit on the narrative that's congealing.

4827
04:06:45,480 --> 04:06:48,120
Speaker 1: At the same time, though that top line very much

4828
04:06:48,360 --> 04:06:51,000
Speaker 1: is the case is very clear. That top line is

4829
04:06:51,280 --> 04:06:56,360
Speaker 1: that the tsunami fantasy that Republicans had been sort of

4830
04:06:56,480 --> 04:06:59,120
Speaker 1: gloating about, I would say the last few days, and

4831
04:06:59,280 --> 04:07:01,960
Speaker 1: I really thought that was a probability or a possibility,

4832
04:07:02,040 --> 04:07:04,800
Speaker 1: not a probability, but a possibility that's not going to

4833
04:07:04,920 --> 04:07:08,120
Speaker 1: pan out. Although if you're going to Pocohol, does this

4834
04:07:08,280 --> 04:07:11,640
Speaker 1: patch the whole back up? We got one point three

4835
04:07:11,720 --> 04:07:20,320
Speaker 1: million votes counted in Arizona. No, because only Katie Hobbs

4836
04:07:20,360 --> 04:07:26,120
Speaker 1: being up over Carry Lake. So she's up. That's I

4837
04:07:26,160 --> 04:07:28,520
Speaker 1: would not expect that though. I mean, so you've got

4838
04:07:28,960 --> 04:07:33,520
Speaker 1: so in Arizona, you have the northeastern Apache County, which

4839
04:07:33,560 --> 04:07:37,120
Speaker 1: is Republican, not reporting anything at all. Yet you have

4840
04:07:37,280 --> 04:07:42,200
Speaker 1: Navajo County only reporting half, although that's fairly split the

4841
04:07:42,280 --> 04:07:48,720
Speaker 1: big I don't know. I mean, you would expect Carrie

4842
04:07:48,800 --> 04:07:51,040
Speaker 1: Lake to be doing better than this if she was

4843
04:07:51,640 --> 04:07:55,560
Speaker 1: going to win at this point. So compared to so

4844
04:07:55,760 --> 04:08:00,640
Speaker 1: she's down fifty seven forty three, compared to Mark Mark Kelly,

4845
04:08:01,360 --> 04:08:04,800
Speaker 1: who's who's up fifty eight to forty Oh no, not sorry,

4846
04:08:04,880 --> 04:08:09,080
Speaker 1: not fifty eight forty that's that's in one county. Not

4847
04:08:10,480 --> 04:08:14,320
Speaker 1: not not what people were expecting. I think it's it's

4848
04:08:14,480 --> 04:08:17,400
Speaker 1: tough to say with forty seven percent, but we'll those

4849
04:08:17,480 --> 04:08:20,880
Speaker 1: numbers will change and the very it is fifty yeah,

4850
04:08:20,920 --> 04:08:24,440
Speaker 1: it is fifty eight to forty right now, right, yeah,

4851
04:08:24,480 --> 04:08:26,920
Speaker 1: So those numbers can change a lot one point and

4852
04:08:27,040 --> 04:08:30,000
Speaker 1: then we don't do we have anything in on Texas

4853
04:08:30,080 --> 04:08:34,120
Speaker 1: yet because one point. Oh here, if numbers are starting

4854
04:08:34,160 --> 04:08:37,280
Speaker 1: to come in, yes, one point on Miami and South Florida,

4855
04:08:38,320 --> 04:08:42,760
Speaker 1: it's it's such an unusual place in you know, when

4856
04:08:42,800 --> 04:08:46,400
Speaker 1: Obama was elected, there was this sense that the next

4857
04:08:46,480 --> 04:08:50,760
Speaker 1: generation of Cubans were going to move democratic and this

4858
04:08:50,920 --> 04:08:53,880
Speaker 1: was going to become a city that basically voted in

4859
04:08:53,960 --> 04:08:56,280
Speaker 1: the same way that a lot of other cities did.

4860
04:08:56,320 --> 04:08:59,920
Speaker 1: Eventually as the kind of hostility that Democrats died out,

4861
04:09:00,120 --> 04:09:04,840
Speaker 1: hostility which is literally still rooted in hostility towards JFK

4862
04:09:06,480 --> 04:09:10,000
Speaker 1: for his betrayal during the Bay of Pigs. Like that's

4863
04:09:12,000 --> 04:09:16,800
Speaker 1: Miami Cubans support the embargo right right, but not the

4864
04:09:16,920 --> 04:09:19,520
Speaker 1: children of those Cubans, So but a ton of them

4865
04:09:19,560 --> 04:09:23,600
Speaker 1: moved away. And then you also had this mass influx

4866
04:09:24,320 --> 04:09:30,680
Speaker 1: of rich, right wing Venezuelans, Colombians, South Americans, Mexicans across

4867
04:09:30,720 --> 04:09:34,560
Speaker 1: the board. So in Miami went from a place that

4868
04:09:34,720 --> 04:09:39,720
Speaker 1: was very Cuban American dominated to now being a place

4869
04:09:39,760 --> 04:09:43,480
Speaker 1: where basically people with right wing politics already and wealth

4870
04:09:43,680 --> 04:09:46,120
Speaker 1: from South and Central America are heading. And I think

4871
04:09:46,160 --> 04:09:49,280
Speaker 1: it is reshaping the entire politics of South South Florida.

4872
04:09:50,440 --> 04:09:53,480
Speaker 1: Combined with the trumpification of the entire state, but also

4873
04:09:53,600 --> 04:09:58,240
Speaker 1: maybe reshaping the politics of southeastern Texas, and that is

4874
04:09:58,640 --> 04:10:01,400
Speaker 1: and perhaps we'll see some of So let's roll through

4875
04:10:01,440 --> 04:10:04,400
Speaker 1: some of this. So Maya Flores, that's one we were

4876
04:10:04,480 --> 04:10:07,840
Speaker 1: looking at, right, Yeah, Myra Flores, So thirty four, she's

4877
04:10:07,880 --> 04:10:10,280
Speaker 1: down by ten thousand votes with sixty seven percent in.

4878
04:10:10,600 --> 04:10:14,120
Speaker 1: That's super interesting because that's again a tsunami would have

4879
04:10:14,200 --> 04:10:19,280
Speaker 1: been Myra Flores right now, comfortable, right comfortable, and she

4880
04:10:19,840 --> 04:10:23,520
Speaker 1: down eleven eleven percent against Vicenta Gonzale. She is a

4881
04:10:23,760 --> 04:10:26,360
Speaker 1: very good candidate from the perspective of Republicans, from the

4882
04:10:26,400 --> 04:10:29,760
Speaker 1: perspective of me, I mean as a conservative journalist, I've

4883
04:10:29,800 --> 04:10:31,640
Speaker 1: I've talked to her. I think she's a good candidate.

4884
04:10:32,920 --> 04:10:35,720
Speaker 1: We don't know what happens there. Looks like Michelle Vaejo

4885
04:10:35,880 --> 04:10:39,760
Speaker 1: is going to lose. That's that's a big to Monica

4886
04:10:39,840 --> 04:10:42,000
Speaker 1: de la Cruz. She's down by eleven points with seventy

4887
04:10:42,040 --> 04:10:43,920
Speaker 1: seven percent of the vote in. So this is roughly

4888
04:10:44,000 --> 04:10:46,640
Speaker 1: the same. Now there's a ten percent more in in

4889
04:10:47,280 --> 04:10:53,080
Speaker 1: fifteen here. So now Henry Henry Quaar cruising despite that

4890
04:10:53,200 --> 04:10:56,320
Speaker 1: was another big if that's a same subject of a loser, right,

4891
04:10:56,960 --> 04:10:59,320
Speaker 1: So he's he's up by He's up by twelve points.

4892
04:10:59,320 --> 04:11:05,000
Speaker 1: He's up by fourteen thousand votes. Greg gasar squad member,

4893
04:11:05,080 --> 04:11:07,560
Speaker 1: incoming squad member. He was obviously always going to win.

4894
04:11:07,680 --> 04:11:10,280
Speaker 1: He's he's up by fifty points. This is an Austin,

4895
04:11:10,400 --> 04:11:16,000
Speaker 1: Austin guy. Let's see who else wal Qing Castro oh here,

4896
04:11:16,880 --> 04:11:24,800
Speaker 1: Tony Gonzalez winning comfortably Republican Tony Gonzalez, what other whatever?

4897
04:11:25,640 --> 04:11:27,720
Speaker 1: So the Myyra Flores you said, they were, like, what's

4898
04:11:27,800 --> 04:11:32,600
Speaker 1: fifty percent in in Texas six sixty seven sixty seven percent,

4899
04:11:32,760 --> 04:11:35,400
Speaker 1: she's down by eleven percentage points in ten thousand votes.

4900
04:11:35,680 --> 04:11:39,800
Speaker 1: So they redrew that district. But that's a again that

4901
04:11:40,200 --> 04:11:43,800
Speaker 1: Republicans felt very good about that, right they loved Meyra Flores,

4902
04:11:43,840 --> 04:11:46,960
Speaker 1: like she became like a celebrity, like she's our counter

4903
04:11:47,040 --> 04:11:50,280
Speaker 1: to AOC, and again like she's a good candidate, could

4904
04:11:50,320 --> 04:11:52,680
Speaker 1: come back and win. But it's not looking good for

4905
04:11:52,760 --> 04:11:55,120
Speaker 1: her right now. Well, and it's certainly not an easy,

4906
04:11:55,240 --> 04:11:59,560
Speaker 1: comfortable win either way. And and that's and we're again

4907
04:11:59,640 --> 04:12:04,680
Speaker 1: we're looking at Lauren Bobert. How's Bobert looking so like,

4908
04:12:04,920 --> 04:12:08,480
Speaker 1: let's just be clear, Bobert's at forty eight percent yeah, okay,

4909
04:12:08,520 --> 04:12:09,960
Speaker 1: so it's still the last time we said it was

4910
04:12:10,000 --> 04:12:12,520
Speaker 1: at seventy one percent reporting. Frish is at fifty one

4911
04:12:12,560 --> 04:12:14,800
Speaker 1: point nine, Bobert's at forty eight point one. This is

4912
04:12:14,880 --> 04:12:18,000
Speaker 1: not a race that was on anybody's radar. But let's

4913
04:12:18,520 --> 04:12:24,560
Speaker 1: continue on and just say we had over the summer expectations.

4914
04:12:24,600 --> 04:12:26,480
Speaker 1: I mean, Ron Johnson is going to win. There was

4915
04:12:26,760 --> 04:12:30,040
Speaker 1: an expectation that perhaps Ron Johnson wasn't going to win.

4916
04:12:30,200 --> 04:12:32,360
Speaker 1: It looks like right now Ron Johnson is going to win.

4917
04:12:32,480 --> 04:12:33,840
Speaker 1: He's going to be I thought he would win by

4918
04:12:33,880 --> 04:12:36,560
Speaker 1: eight or ten. You did, Yeah, he's He's only up

4919
04:12:36,640 --> 04:12:38,360
Speaker 1: by a couple at this point. Right, Well, he might

4920
04:12:38,440 --> 04:12:41,720
Speaker 1: still end it. It's early. Yeah, although I imagine the

4921
04:12:41,800 --> 04:12:45,200
Speaker 1: votes on milwaukeeer saw it standing. But so that was

4922
04:12:45,800 --> 04:12:48,320
Speaker 1: there was this idea that Ron Johnson probably wasn't going

4923
04:12:48,400 --> 04:12:51,240
Speaker 1: to pull it out. There was real chatter that Mark

4924
04:12:51,400 --> 04:12:53,760
Speaker 1: Rubio might lose. That sounds ridiculous, but there was real

4925
04:12:53,840 --> 04:12:56,680
Speaker 1: chatter that jd Vance might lose. Jd Vance has won.

4926
04:12:57,600 --> 04:13:02,200
Speaker 1: So it is the case that we've seen some counter

4927
04:13:02,320 --> 04:13:05,800
Speaker 1: narrative Republican victories here and that Republicans that were sort

4928
04:13:05,840 --> 04:13:09,080
Speaker 1: of counted out over the course of the summer have

4929
04:13:09,200 --> 04:13:12,240
Speaker 1: been able to hang on. And so that's why I

4930
04:13:12,440 --> 04:13:16,280
Speaker 1: do think there's a little bit of air being let

4931
04:13:16,320 --> 04:13:17,880
Speaker 1: out of the balloon right now, a lot of air

4932
04:13:18,000 --> 04:13:20,720
Speaker 1: probably for Republicans. If you lose Myra Flores, if you

4933
04:13:20,840 --> 04:13:27,040
Speaker 1: lose I mean they lost to Shapiro in Pennsylvania. If

4934
04:13:27,080 --> 04:13:30,080
Speaker 1: you're losing New Hampshire. They did lose New Hampshire. That's

4935
04:13:30,080 --> 04:13:32,800
Speaker 1: been called for Maki Hassid. These were the fantasy things

4936
04:13:32,840 --> 04:13:36,000
Speaker 1: that seemed in reach. That's letting air out of the balloon.

4937
04:13:36,040 --> 04:13:39,400
Speaker 1: There's no question about it. The same thing or same

4938
04:13:39,480 --> 04:13:42,400
Speaker 1: story though in Florida. On the flip side, this is

4939
04:13:42,480 --> 04:13:46,120
Speaker 1: big stuff. In Ohio, that's a big win for jd

4940
04:13:46,280 --> 04:13:49,480
Speaker 1: Vance especially, you know when Mitch McConnell didn't want jad

4941
04:13:49,640 --> 04:13:53,520
Speaker 1: Vance to do anything. So from the perspective of, you know,

4942
04:13:53,640 --> 04:13:57,720
Speaker 1: the sort of right more broadly, I don't think they're

4943
04:13:57,800 --> 04:13:59,920
Speaker 1: depressed right now. I should check in with some sort

4944
04:13:59,960 --> 04:14:01,560
Speaker 1: of is while we're talking here and see what the

4945
04:14:01,600 --> 04:14:04,200
Speaker 1: mood is. I don't think they're depressed, but I do

4946
04:14:04,280 --> 04:14:07,280
Speaker 1: think there's deflation. I imagine another one that people were

4947
04:14:07,400 --> 04:14:12,240
Speaker 1: watching Democrats were watching closely. Johanna Hayes, who represents a

4948
04:14:12,320 --> 04:14:16,640
Speaker 1: swing district in Connecticut, and she's been a super progressive

4949
04:14:17,840 --> 04:14:21,320
Speaker 1: in her voting record, and she was famously she was

4950
04:14:21,400 --> 04:14:23,680
Speaker 1: I think Teacher of the Year in twenty fifteen twenty sixteen.

4951
04:14:23,720 --> 04:14:26,520
Speaker 1: Grew up in a housing project in this very rich district,

4952
04:14:27,080 --> 04:14:31,200
Speaker 1: now represents the district. Had always said, look, you want

4953
04:14:31,240 --> 04:14:33,520
Speaker 1: to if I'm going to say what I believe, if

4954
04:14:33,560 --> 04:14:35,960
Speaker 1: I'm a one term member of Congress, that's what it is.

4955
04:14:36,400 --> 04:14:38,080
Speaker 1: She now looks like she's on her way to her

4956
04:14:38,120 --> 04:14:40,000
Speaker 1: third term. She's up. I mean, she's only up by

4957
04:14:40,040 --> 04:14:45,000
Speaker 1: four points with forty percent in, but she's you know,

4958
04:14:45,440 --> 04:14:48,280
Speaker 1: if it were that kind of red wave year, she'd

4959
04:14:48,320 --> 04:14:51,480
Speaker 1: be down right now and people would be stressing, oh wow,

4960
04:14:51,600 --> 04:14:54,680
Speaker 1: like Johanna Hayes is out. What about Michigan? So Michigan?

4961
04:14:55,120 --> 04:14:59,120
Speaker 1: And do we have Terry ready? Let's see he's almost ready,

4962
04:14:59,520 --> 04:15:02,840
Speaker 1: but Michigan. It's another good example that's a fantasy, that's

4963
04:15:03,240 --> 04:15:05,760
Speaker 1: a fantasy win for Republicans that it felt like we're

4964
04:15:05,760 --> 04:15:07,640
Speaker 1: at their fingertips that were going to knock out Gretchen

4965
04:15:07,680 --> 04:15:10,240
Speaker 1: Whitmer because of COVID. It's something we haven't even talked

4966
04:15:10,240 --> 04:15:12,880
Speaker 1: about on the broadcast so far, that's certainly front and

4967
04:15:12,960 --> 04:15:16,440
Speaker 1: center in a lot of voters' minds school lockdowns. Gretchen

4968
04:15:16,480 --> 04:15:21,120
Speaker 1: Whitmer has really tried to pretend that her her legacy

4969
04:15:21,160 --> 04:15:24,440
Speaker 1: of school lockdowns isn't what it is and isn't what

4970
04:15:24,560 --> 04:15:26,440
Speaker 1: it was, and looks like she's going to pull this

4971
04:15:26,520 --> 04:15:30,560
Speaker 1: out so interestingly Alyssa Slotkin, So the Times lists are

4972
04:15:31,680 --> 04:15:36,040
Speaker 1: down by twelve points, but they still lift it leaning

4973
04:15:36,120 --> 04:15:40,200
Speaker 1: D which means there must be a lot of Democratic

4974
04:15:40,280 --> 04:15:43,920
Speaker 1: areas still out, but she has by no means, you know,

4975
04:15:44,040 --> 04:15:47,280
Speaker 1: put that one away. Alyssa Slockin is one of the

4976
04:15:48,520 --> 04:15:51,320
Speaker 1: key Democrats that there that they're trying to knock out.

4977
04:15:52,440 --> 04:15:57,200
Speaker 1: Hillary Schulton is still leaning D up fifty two forty

4978
04:15:57,280 --> 04:16:01,840
Speaker 1: five against against John Gibbs was the one that Democrats

4979
04:16:01,880 --> 04:16:05,040
Speaker 1: put a bunch of money in behind right to try

4980
04:16:05,120 --> 04:16:07,640
Speaker 1: to this. That was one of their plays where they're like,

4981
04:16:07,680 --> 04:16:11,280
Speaker 1: we're going to go elect an unelectable right winger and

4982
04:16:11,360 --> 04:16:13,840
Speaker 1: then how ha ha ha, we'll own the Republicans that way.

4983
04:16:14,080 --> 04:16:18,360
Speaker 1: They did that with Baul Duke in New Hampshire. Was

4984
04:16:18,640 --> 04:16:23,840
Speaker 1: Gibbs the one that beat the modern Republican that everybody hates.

4985
04:16:24,080 --> 04:16:28,040
Speaker 1: I don't know. Well, so we have actually Terry here.

4986
04:16:28,920 --> 04:16:33,160
Speaker 1: On last week's Counterpoints, we played some ads specifically, I

4987
04:16:33,200 --> 04:16:35,880
Speaker 1: think we focused and played this ad from Nevada against

4988
04:16:35,920 --> 04:16:39,240
Speaker 1: Catherine Cortez Masto that was produced by the American Principles Project.

4989
04:16:39,760 --> 04:16:43,400
Speaker 1: And we have Terry Shilling here with us now from

4990
04:16:43,480 --> 04:16:47,800
Speaker 1: the American Principles Project. Terry, welcome to Counterpoints. We're excited

4991
04:16:47,840 --> 04:16:50,400
Speaker 1: to have you here on election night. Hey, thanks so

4992
04:16:50,520 --> 04:16:53,800
Speaker 1: much for having me, Emily and Ryan. It's really great

4993
04:16:53,840 --> 04:16:56,840
Speaker 1: to be here. So you've got an American Principals Project

4994
04:16:56,880 --> 04:16:58,680
Speaker 1: has a decent chunk of change on the line to night.

4995
04:16:58,880 --> 04:17:01,320
Speaker 1: I think you guys have spent fifth teen million dollars.

4996
04:17:01,520 --> 04:17:04,640
Speaker 1: Is that just an ads, Terry, Uh No, that's a

4997
04:17:04,720 --> 04:17:09,120
Speaker 1: portion of that's been in ads and direct voter contact.

4998
04:17:09,800 --> 04:17:12,320
Speaker 1: But that's our total spend for the cycle counting twenty

4999
04:17:12,360 --> 04:17:15,080
Speaker 1: twenty one and twenty twenty two. But you know, it's

5000
04:17:15,120 --> 04:17:17,640
Speaker 1: it's really interesting because well, we spent you know, that

5001
04:17:17,840 --> 04:17:22,040
Speaker 1: much in this cycle the economic groups and the the

5002
04:17:22,400 --> 04:17:24,720
Speaker 1: crime groups and all that the most the vast majority

5003
04:17:24,760 --> 04:17:29,120
Speaker 1: of spending has been on on those top issues. It's

5004
04:17:29,240 --> 04:17:31,560
Speaker 1: it's really interesting. We have a long night ahead of us,

5005
04:17:31,640 --> 04:17:33,520
Speaker 1: where we still have a lot more results to see.

5006
04:17:33,560 --> 04:17:36,360
Speaker 1: We still have Arizona to come in in Nevada, but

5007
04:17:36,560 --> 04:17:38,520
Speaker 1: you know, it's it's looking like it's not such a

5008
04:17:38,600 --> 04:17:42,160
Speaker 1: big red wave as a lot of people predicted. Yeah,

5009
04:17:42,280 --> 04:17:43,800
Speaker 1: that's what we wanted to ask you about that. Yeah,

5010
04:17:44,040 --> 04:17:46,960
Speaker 1: talk talk us through Arizona here, because you know, what

5011
04:17:47,200 --> 04:17:50,960
Speaker 1: what what's your understanding of what's in so far and

5012
04:17:51,200 --> 04:17:54,320
Speaker 1: what's still outstanding when it comes to both the you know,

5013
04:17:54,480 --> 04:17:56,880
Speaker 1: the the Carry Lake Race and the and the Blake

5014
04:17:56,960 --> 04:18:00,920
Speaker 1: Masters Mark Mark Kelly Race. Let me pulled up real quick.

5015
04:18:00,960 --> 04:18:03,200
Speaker 1: I was going through it before I was talking with

5016
04:18:03,280 --> 04:18:06,320
Speaker 1: you guys. So it looks like, you know, about half

5017
04:18:06,360 --> 04:18:09,840
Speaker 1: the votes are counted. Lake is still she's under about

5018
04:18:09,880 --> 04:18:13,720
Speaker 1: thirteen points with fifty four percent to go. Look, we

5019
04:18:13,840 --> 04:18:17,120
Speaker 1: still have a lot to still count and you know,

5020
04:18:17,200 --> 04:18:20,320
Speaker 1: we'll see what happens. But we don't know, We don't

5021
04:18:20,360 --> 04:18:24,600
Speaker 1: know exactly what happened here. It's obviously not great for Republicans.

5022
04:18:24,760 --> 04:18:27,240
Speaker 1: I know that we were really hoping for a much

5023
04:18:27,320 --> 04:18:31,920
Speaker 1: bigger night here. But we'll see. We're the good thing

5024
04:18:31,960 --> 04:18:35,320
Speaker 1: about elections that they're clarifying, Right, it's a moment where

5025
04:18:35,480 --> 04:18:37,720
Speaker 1: you get to see where the American people actually are.

5026
04:18:37,920 --> 04:18:39,920
Speaker 1: They cast their votes, they tell you what they want,

5027
04:18:40,080 --> 04:18:42,800
Speaker 1: who they don't want in office, and you have to

5028
04:18:42,880 --> 04:18:47,000
Speaker 1: reassess things. And ultimately, we had a really big winner tonight,

5029
04:18:47,080 --> 04:18:50,400
Speaker 1: and I think that that's Ronda Santis. He won Florida

5030
04:18:50,520 --> 04:18:53,560
Speaker 1: as it stands right now by twenty points. That's a

5031
04:18:53,600 --> 04:18:55,840
Speaker 1: big deal. And so we have to ask ourselves why

5032
04:18:55,880 --> 04:18:59,000
Speaker 1: did Ronda Santis win in Florida, which he barely won

5033
04:18:59,080 --> 04:19:01,920
Speaker 1: in twenty eighteen, right he wanted by I think less

5034
04:19:02,040 --> 04:19:04,960
Speaker 1: than a percentage point in twenty eighteen, But now he's

5035
04:19:05,000 --> 04:19:08,040
Speaker 1: won by twenty points. Why did that happen? And why

5036
04:19:08,120 --> 04:19:12,080
Speaker 1: are Republicans now still floundering? I would argue that Republicans

5037
04:19:12,160 --> 04:19:16,920
Speaker 1: still lack a real message, a real vision that they

5038
04:19:17,040 --> 04:19:20,120
Speaker 1: presented the American people. It was an anti Biden message,

5039
04:19:20,160 --> 04:19:23,880
Speaker 1: it was an anti progressive message, but it was not

5040
04:19:24,120 --> 04:19:28,000
Speaker 1: an inspirational message. They did not cast a bold vision

5041
04:19:28,080 --> 04:19:31,360
Speaker 1: that showed Americans where they wanted to take the country.

5042
04:19:31,400 --> 04:19:33,800
Speaker 1: And ultimately, I think until they give that vision where

5043
04:19:33,840 --> 04:19:36,680
Speaker 1: they want to take the country, voters are going to

5044
04:19:36,960 --> 04:19:39,120
Speaker 1: not be motivated to vote for them. And I want

5045
04:19:39,120 --> 04:19:41,000
Speaker 1: to talk to you about Nevadaterrey because we spent a

5046
04:19:41,040 --> 04:19:42,800
Speaker 1: bit there, But before we get to that, I actually

5047
04:19:42,840 --> 04:19:45,640
Speaker 1: want to tease out maybe this distinction. That's interesting because

5048
04:19:45,720 --> 04:19:48,080
Speaker 1: going into this for the last week or so, the

5049
04:19:48,360 --> 04:19:51,080
Speaker 1: legacy media was talking a lot about and we talked

5050
04:19:51,120 --> 04:19:54,600
Speaker 1: about it frankly, about how Democrats had not sort of

5051
04:19:54,800 --> 04:19:58,080
Speaker 1: come to the right argument when it comes to the economy.

5052
04:19:58,640 --> 04:20:01,480
Speaker 1: They did not spend as much on all of these

5053
04:20:01,520 --> 04:20:03,720
Speaker 1: other issues as they did on abortion all of the

5054
04:20:03,800 --> 04:20:06,920
Speaker 1: other issues combined. Yes, they spent ads enough ad money

5055
04:20:06,960 --> 04:20:09,440
Speaker 1: on to overcome how much they spent on abortion, but

5056
04:20:09,480 --> 04:20:12,040
Speaker 1: they like they spent way more on abortion than any

5057
04:20:12,080 --> 04:20:14,400
Speaker 1: other single issue. Now, I think there's an argument that

5058
04:20:14,480 --> 04:20:16,280
Speaker 1: was about turnout, But people like to talk about how

5059
04:20:16,360 --> 04:20:19,200
Speaker 1: Democrats this election were obsessed with the culture war and

5060
04:20:19,280 --> 04:20:21,520
Speaker 1: that hurt them. I actually don't know that that's going

5061
04:20:21,560 --> 04:20:23,760
Speaker 1: to be the case, because midterm elections are about turnout,

5062
04:20:23,840 --> 04:20:27,840
Speaker 1: and abortions can motivate the Democratic base. On the flip side,

5063
04:20:27,920 --> 04:20:31,640
Speaker 1: Terry tell us about the culture war type ads that

5064
04:20:31,720 --> 04:20:35,440
Speaker 1: you guys at American Principles Project have been running, because

5065
04:20:36,240 --> 04:20:39,480
Speaker 1: I think personally they're sort of the smart approach the

5066
04:20:39,520 --> 04:20:43,440
Speaker 1: smart conservative approach to some of these big questions that frankly,

5067
04:20:43,600 --> 04:20:46,200
Speaker 1: you know, the RNC itself should have been on top

5068
04:20:46,240 --> 04:20:48,480
Speaker 1: of ten years ago, let alone five years ago. And

5069
04:20:48,600 --> 04:20:50,960
Speaker 1: you guys are running on now, what are some of

5070
04:20:51,000 --> 04:20:55,080
Speaker 1: the issues that you guys highlighted and do you still

5071
04:20:55,320 --> 04:20:59,600
Speaker 1: feel like they could be really consequential as the numbers

5072
04:20:59,640 --> 04:21:03,080
Speaker 1: come in. Yeah, So, look, the big things that we

5073
04:21:03,200 --> 04:21:08,880
Speaker 1: focused on was protecting children, right, protecting children from gender

5074
04:21:09,000 --> 04:21:12,400
Speaker 1: transitions that are being pushed on them by big pharmaceutical

5075
04:21:12,480 --> 04:21:16,000
Speaker 1: companies and transgender activists, but also protecting children from being

5076
04:21:16,080 --> 04:21:20,560
Speaker 1: sexualized by pornographic materian schools like the book Genderqueer, which

5077
04:21:20,600 --> 04:21:25,440
Speaker 1: is a graphic novel that depicts sex between minors, among

5078
04:21:25,560 --> 04:21:29,080
Speaker 1: other things, and it freaked out the parents in Dearborn Michigan.

5079
04:21:29,200 --> 04:21:32,880
Speaker 1: Even CARE got behind some of those parents that were

5080
04:21:32,920 --> 04:21:35,800
Speaker 1: overwhelmingly Muslim in Dearborn Michigan. And again, CARE is not

5081
04:21:35,840 --> 04:21:41,040
Speaker 1: a typically a conservative organization on politics American politics. But sorry,

5082
04:21:41,120 --> 04:21:44,000
Speaker 1: Terry interrupted you. No, no, no, it's okay. You made

5083
04:21:44,040 --> 04:21:46,640
Speaker 1: a very good point. I think it's important to remember

5084
04:21:46,760 --> 04:21:49,960
Speaker 1: that just a year ago, right in Virginia in twenty

5085
04:21:50,080 --> 04:21:53,920
Speaker 1: twenty one, when the election was about parental rights and education,

5086
04:21:54,080 --> 04:21:58,840
Speaker 1: which that is what that election was about. We won handily, right,

5087
04:21:59,280 --> 04:22:04,560
Speaker 1: but then Republicans juked that message and for the large part,

5088
04:22:04,800 --> 04:22:07,000
Speaker 1: gave up on it and didn't really campaign on it

5089
04:22:07,760 --> 04:22:11,440
Speaker 1: and instead focused on Joe Biden's inflation, Joe Biden's economy,

5090
04:22:11,560 --> 04:22:15,640
Speaker 1: the crime sprees that are going across the country. That's

5091
04:22:15,720 --> 04:22:18,840
Speaker 1: when they began to lose. And so we focused on

5092
04:22:19,200 --> 04:22:22,640
Speaker 1: the issues that we knew that Americans were in support

5093
04:22:22,760 --> 04:22:25,720
Speaker 1: of a Republican or a conservative message on, which is

5094
04:22:25,800 --> 04:22:29,400
Speaker 1: protecting kids from pornography in their own schools, from being sexualized,

5095
04:22:29,440 --> 04:22:34,040
Speaker 1: from being groomed, and also from exploitative section procedures that

5096
04:22:34,400 --> 04:22:38,280
Speaker 1: you know, doctors and surgeons and pharmaceutic companies are making

5097
04:22:38,320 --> 04:22:39,880
Speaker 1: lots of money off of our kids off of so

5098
04:22:40,680 --> 04:22:43,560
Speaker 1: you know, those were winning issues. We could produce ads

5099
04:22:43,640 --> 04:22:47,640
Speaker 1: with experts like Miriam Grossman, who's a pediatric psychiatrist that's

5100
04:22:47,680 --> 04:22:52,640
Speaker 1: been doing this for decades. We told stories from a

5101
04:22:52,800 --> 04:22:57,160
Speaker 1: mother in California, Abby Martinez, who you know, lost her

5102
04:22:57,320 --> 04:23:00,560
Speaker 1: daughter to transgenderism, right had the daughter ripped from the home.

5103
04:23:01,000 --> 04:23:03,760
Speaker 1: The daughter ended up going on to cross sex hormones

5104
04:23:03,800 --> 04:23:06,440
Speaker 1: while on foster care, and then shortly after that took

5105
04:23:06,480 --> 04:23:10,280
Speaker 1: her life. We were telling persuasive stories on issues that

5106
04:23:10,400 --> 04:23:15,320
Speaker 1: we knew the American people were way in a disagreement

5107
04:23:15,440 --> 04:23:19,160
Speaker 1: with the Democratic policies. It was really tough to get

5108
04:23:19,200 --> 04:23:22,520
Speaker 1: Republicans on side with these. But what we're seeing is

5109
04:23:22,680 --> 04:23:25,800
Speaker 1: that the Republicans who really went on offense on these issues,

5110
04:23:26,000 --> 04:23:29,160
Speaker 1: like JD Vans, like Rond De Santis, they're winning their

5111
04:23:29,160 --> 04:23:32,600
Speaker 1: elections handily. They're getting called very early. And the ones

5112
04:23:32,680 --> 04:23:35,880
Speaker 1: that didn't, that didn't go on offense, they're the ones

5113
04:23:35,920 --> 04:23:39,600
Speaker 1: that are behind right now. Do you know why do

5114
04:23:39,640 --> 04:23:42,520
Speaker 1: you think? You know? If you think that message resident?

5115
04:23:42,960 --> 04:23:46,000
Speaker 1: Do you think that Blake Masters didn't do enough of that?

5116
04:23:46,120 --> 04:23:47,560
Speaker 1: Do you think Kerry Lake didn't do enough of that?

5117
04:23:48,400 --> 04:23:51,200
Speaker 1: Do you think Baldoke didn't do enough of it? Yeah? No,

5118
04:23:51,360 --> 04:23:55,520
Speaker 1: look I yeah, no. Oz definitely shied away from all

5119
04:23:55,600 --> 04:23:58,240
Speaker 1: of the social issues. Right. I think that Oz was

5120
04:23:58,280 --> 04:24:01,880
Speaker 1: an exceptionally poor candidate in Pennsylvania. I think if you

5121
04:24:01,960 --> 04:24:04,960
Speaker 1: had any other candidate in that race, it would have

5122
04:24:05,040 --> 04:24:08,440
Speaker 1: been locked up at the moment that debate happened with

5123
04:24:08,520 --> 04:24:11,960
Speaker 1: John Fetterman, where it was clear that he has suffered

5124
04:24:12,000 --> 04:24:16,200
Speaker 1: severe brain trauma and brain damage. But Bulldog did not

5125
04:24:17,040 --> 04:24:20,640
Speaker 1: go into or lean into the social issues. Look, we

5126
04:24:20,720 --> 04:24:23,960
Speaker 1: still have to see the results come in fully from Arizona.

5127
04:24:24,280 --> 04:24:26,560
Speaker 1: That race isn't over yet, and we obviously know that

5128
04:24:26,640 --> 04:24:30,520
Speaker 1: there were you know, major problems with delays and problems

5129
04:24:30,560 --> 04:24:33,120
Speaker 1: with the election machines and how they were being counted.

5130
04:24:33,440 --> 04:24:36,000
Speaker 1: So look, we saw the weight there. But at the

5131
04:24:36,120 --> 04:24:38,680
Speaker 1: end of the day, Ron DeSantis I think is the

5132
04:24:38,720 --> 04:24:41,640
Speaker 1: big winner today. I mean he's the one that stands

5133
04:24:41,720 --> 04:24:44,360
Speaker 1: out as the biggest winner, not just by like my

5134
04:24:44,480 --> 04:24:47,240
Speaker 1: own judgment, but literally by the margins that he's won

5135
04:24:47,360 --> 04:24:50,880
Speaker 1: his race by. He governed very boldly. He was very

5136
04:24:50,960 --> 04:24:52,840
Speaker 1: clear about what he wanted to do and where he

5137
04:24:52,880 --> 04:24:56,840
Speaker 1: wanted to take Floridians, And I think ultimately that's the

5138
04:24:56,920 --> 04:24:58,920
Speaker 1: big message is that if you want to win your

5139
04:24:59,000 --> 04:25:01,880
Speaker 1: campaign's elections, you have to be very clear with what

5140
04:25:02,040 --> 04:25:03,960
Speaker 1: you're going to do while in office. And I think

5141
04:25:04,000 --> 04:25:06,200
Speaker 1: that of all the candidates that were running the cycle,

5142
04:25:06,600 --> 04:25:09,440
Speaker 1: Ron DeSantis was the most clear and painted the biggest

5143
04:25:09,520 --> 04:25:12,200
Speaker 1: vision and the clearest vision for what he was going

5144
04:25:12,280 --> 04:25:15,280
Speaker 1: to do for voters. So Terry, before before we let

5145
04:25:15,360 --> 04:25:17,480
Speaker 1: you go, as of right, now, I imagine you've been

5146
04:25:17,560 --> 04:25:21,040
Speaker 1: monitoring the race in Nevada. I mean, I know you've

5147
04:25:21,040 --> 04:25:22,880
Speaker 1: been monitoring the race in Nevada because you have money

5148
04:25:22,880 --> 04:25:25,480
Speaker 1: on the line there. But what can people expect? There

5149
04:25:25,640 --> 04:25:30,880
Speaker 1: was this potential Republican fantasy that Catherine Cortes Maasso might

5150
04:25:30,960 --> 04:25:33,360
Speaker 1: go down, and that's that has not been ruled out

5151
04:25:33,440 --> 04:25:36,280
Speaker 1: as of right now. What are you looking at in Nevada?

5152
04:25:36,480 --> 04:25:38,800
Speaker 1: And you know what were you looking at over the

5153
04:25:38,840 --> 04:25:41,680
Speaker 1: course of the past week as well well. Obviously Clark

5154
04:25:41,720 --> 04:25:44,480
Speaker 1: County is the most important part of that state. It's

5155
04:25:44,520 --> 04:25:46,880
Speaker 1: where the vast majority of the population of best majority

5156
04:25:46,880 --> 04:25:50,560
Speaker 1: of voters live. It's going to come down to where

5157
04:25:50,720 --> 04:25:53,120
Speaker 1: the early vote was and what the turnout was with that,

5158
04:25:53,320 --> 04:25:57,040
Speaker 1: and then what election day turnout was. All day long,

5159
04:25:57,160 --> 04:25:59,480
Speaker 1: I was paying attention to John Ralston and what he

5160
04:25:59,600 --> 04:26:02,680
Speaker 1: was reported from what he was seeing as election day turnout,

5161
04:26:02,760 --> 04:26:06,480
Speaker 1: and frankly, he was pretty dire about this. But ultimately,

5162
04:26:06,600 --> 04:26:09,680
Speaker 1: I think what this all comes down to is Democrats

5163
04:26:09,760 --> 04:26:13,000
Speaker 1: really have built a turnout machine. Whether you like it

5164
04:26:13,120 --> 04:26:15,560
Speaker 1: or not, they do know how to turn out their

5165
04:26:15,680 --> 04:26:18,080
Speaker 1: voters and get them to the polls. And I don't

5166
04:26:18,080 --> 04:26:21,200
Speaker 1: think Republicans have built anything close to what the Democrats

5167
04:26:21,240 --> 04:26:25,320
Speaker 1: have built, and apparently it's effective and it's a very,

5168
04:26:25,520 --> 04:26:30,120
Speaker 1: very instrumental in staving off losses. The thing that's frustrating

5169
04:26:30,160 --> 04:26:33,520
Speaker 1: for me is you have all of these dynamics in

5170
04:26:33,600 --> 04:26:36,520
Speaker 1: a midterm cycle. Right. You have literally a senile president

5171
04:26:36,560 --> 04:26:40,520
Speaker 1: who can't put two sentences together. You have record high inflation,

5172
04:26:40,680 --> 04:26:44,440
Speaker 1: the economy is terrible for one case, and our stock

5173
04:26:44,600 --> 04:26:47,920
Speaker 1: our portfolios are all down. Things aren't that great in

5174
04:26:48,000 --> 04:26:51,040
Speaker 1: this country. How the hell did Republicans manage to not

5175
04:26:51,680 --> 04:26:54,600
Speaker 1: get a massive Republican wave? I don't know. I think

5176
04:26:54,720 --> 04:26:57,640
Speaker 1: ultimately they didn't pas cast a big vision, But I

5177
04:26:57,720 --> 04:27:00,400
Speaker 1: also don't think that they've built any type of machine

5178
04:27:00,440 --> 04:27:06,120
Speaker 1: that's competitive, competitive with what the Democrats have built. So look, ultimately, this,

5179
04:27:06,360 --> 04:27:08,760
Speaker 1: like I said earlier, this is a clarification moment for

5180
04:27:08,880 --> 04:27:12,360
Speaker 1: the Republican Party for America where this nation stands, and

5181
04:27:12,440 --> 04:27:15,640
Speaker 1: we're gonna have to reassess things going forward. But it's

5182
04:27:15,680 --> 04:27:18,760
Speaker 1: still we have a long night ahead of us, for sure. Terry,

5183
04:27:19,120 --> 04:27:24,000
Speaker 1: last question, do you think that maybe raging the culture

5184
04:27:24,040 --> 04:27:27,080
Speaker 1: war actually backfired on Republicans this time and that that

5185
04:27:27,760 --> 04:27:30,800
Speaker 1: if to your point, that the economy is what people

5186
04:27:30,880 --> 04:27:33,160
Speaker 1: are actually interested in that they don't want to actually hear,

5187
04:27:34,120 --> 04:27:37,480
Speaker 1: you know about all this the culture war stuff. You know,

5188
04:27:37,640 --> 04:27:41,040
Speaker 1: I disagree with that. I don't think that, you know,

5189
04:27:41,240 --> 04:27:45,560
Speaker 1: opposing sex changes for minors or opposing giving children pornography

5190
04:27:45,600 --> 04:27:48,360
Speaker 1: and schools is going to create any type of backlash.

5191
04:27:49,160 --> 04:27:52,320
Speaker 1: It's just it doesn't make any sense. And frankly, if

5192
04:27:52,360 --> 04:27:55,760
Speaker 1: that is the case, if opposing those two issues is

5193
04:27:55,880 --> 04:27:58,760
Speaker 1: going to cause you to lose elections, then America is

5194
04:27:58,880 --> 04:28:02,680
Speaker 1: not salvageable in a lot of ways, right. I mean,

5195
04:28:02,760 --> 04:28:05,360
Speaker 1: like you have a nation where little children are being given,

5196
04:28:05,560 --> 04:28:08,520
Speaker 1: you know, being sexualized in schools and being given section changes, Like,

5197
04:28:08,880 --> 04:28:10,880
Speaker 1: how are those people going to vote going up? They're

5198
04:28:10,880 --> 04:28:13,120
Speaker 1: definitely not gonna be voting for tax cuts for billionaires

5199
04:28:13,160 --> 04:28:15,240
Speaker 1: and major corporations in the future, I'll tell you that.

5200
04:28:16,000 --> 04:28:19,200
Speaker 1: But ultimately, I think that what this is is it's

5201
04:28:19,240 --> 04:28:22,520
Speaker 1: a lack of leadership in the Republican Party. I think,

5202
04:28:22,680 --> 04:28:24,960
Speaker 1: you know, they Kevin McCarthy right in the last few

5203
04:28:24,960 --> 04:28:27,720
Speaker 1: weeks of the election, what's he talking about entitlement reform?

5204
04:28:28,200 --> 04:28:31,240
Speaker 1: That was not it was just not what this election

5205
04:28:31,400 --> 04:28:34,200
Speaker 1: was about. He put gasoline on the fire right. So

5206
04:28:34,320 --> 04:28:36,840
Speaker 1: we're talking about, you know, entitlement reform, we're talking about

5207
04:28:36,840 --> 04:28:40,160
Speaker 1: cutting spending. I get it, But the economy was on

5208
04:28:40,240 --> 04:28:42,400
Speaker 1: the line, inflation was on the line. You had to

5209
04:28:42,480 --> 04:28:46,000
Speaker 1: have a real, UH policy proposal that would address the

5210
04:28:46,120 --> 04:28:48,880
Speaker 1: major concerns of the American people. And I just don't

5211
04:28:48,880 --> 04:28:52,440
Speaker 1: think Republicans met those those concerns. They just thought that

5212
04:28:52,520 --> 04:28:56,040
Speaker 1: they would be good enough and and and perform well

5213
04:28:56,160 --> 04:28:58,560
Speaker 1: enough just by saying that they weren't show Biden that's

5214
04:28:58,560 --> 04:29:01,480
Speaker 1: obviously not the case. Terry. Thanks thanks for your time.

5215
04:29:01,680 --> 04:29:06,760
Speaker 1: Appreciate it. Go back to a couple more more updates Terry,

5216
04:29:07,160 --> 04:29:09,400
Speaker 1: the American Priscals Project. Thank you so much. Thank you

5217
04:29:09,480 --> 04:29:14,240
Speaker 1: so much, Terry. So there was some hope Republicans had

5218
04:29:14,280 --> 04:29:18,680
Speaker 1: some hope that PAULA. Page might be competitive. That's yeah,

5219
04:29:20,200 --> 04:29:25,400
Speaker 1: he's behind Janet Mills by nine points right now, only

5220
04:29:25,440 --> 04:29:29,000
Speaker 1: fifty eight percent in UH. So you know, I need

5221
04:29:29,960 --> 04:29:32,960
Speaker 1: not over yet, but it's not not panning out the way. Also, Terry,

5222
04:29:33,360 --> 04:29:36,080
Speaker 1: when Terry was the substance aside, when Terry was saying

5223
04:29:37,040 --> 04:29:40,480
Speaker 1: that maybe the country's not salvageable, that actually felt that

5224
04:29:40,640 --> 04:29:43,880
Speaker 1: sounded to me like the way that some progressives sound

5225
04:29:44,120 --> 04:29:47,160
Speaker 1: yes when elections don't go their way well yeah, which

5226
04:29:47,160 --> 04:29:50,160
Speaker 1: which is a real sign of how frustrating and how

5227
04:29:50,240 --> 04:29:52,880
Speaker 1: disappointing this is to someone the right Well, and I

5228
04:29:52,920 --> 04:29:55,160
Speaker 1: think that's the reason we're done with this. I'm going

5229
04:29:55,200 --> 04:29:58,440
Speaker 1: to Canada. So Terry is like a graspros conservative activist

5230
04:29:58,520 --> 04:30:01,280
Speaker 1: that most of the legacy will not talk to, and

5231
04:30:01,360 --> 04:30:03,240
Speaker 1: if they do it's as a freak show, but as

5232
04:30:03,280 --> 04:30:05,840
Speaker 1: somebody who's actually very influential has put a lot of

5233
04:30:05,880 --> 04:30:10,080
Speaker 1: money into these Republican races in swing states like Nevada, Michigan, Wisconsin,

5234
04:30:10,200 --> 04:30:12,560
Speaker 1: where Ron Johnson's actually doing all right as of right now.

5235
04:30:13,560 --> 04:30:15,480
Speaker 1: And so it's important, I think, to e gauge the

5236
04:30:15,520 --> 04:30:17,520
Speaker 1: temperature of folks that are putting the money right there,

5237
04:30:17,600 --> 04:30:21,120
Speaker 1: because that's I think a pretty good indicator of what

5238
04:30:21,440 --> 04:30:24,360
Speaker 1: a JD Vance would be looking at on an agenda

5239
04:30:24,760 --> 04:30:29,880
Speaker 1: come January, what the battle for Mitch McConnell versus Rick

5240
04:30:29,920 --> 04:30:33,520
Speaker 1: Scott looks like come January, and what happens with Blake Masters.

5241
04:30:33,880 --> 04:30:36,240
Speaker 1: We saw Terry was wearing a Blake Master's teach shirt.

5242
04:30:37,480 --> 04:30:40,360
Speaker 1: Has definitely been involved in that race, and Republicans really

5243
04:30:40,440 --> 04:30:46,200
Speaker 1: thought that taking offense. Kerrie Lake multiple times said you know,

5244
04:30:46,240 --> 04:30:49,160
Speaker 1: when reporters would ask her about abortions, she said, no, no,

5245
04:30:49,360 --> 04:30:52,840
Speaker 1: you need to ask Democrats this question about what restrictions

5246
04:30:52,880 --> 04:30:55,960
Speaker 1: they support on abortion. And Republicans had a lot of

5247
04:30:57,520 --> 04:31:00,440
Speaker 1: I don't know what the right word is, enthusiasm or

5248
04:31:00,760 --> 04:31:04,120
Speaker 1: optimism that some of these candidates who were flipping the

5249
04:31:04,200 --> 04:31:06,960
Speaker 1: script in maybe a Trumpian way, and we're willing to

5250
04:31:07,160 --> 04:31:10,440
Speaker 1: lean into the culture war in a way that Glenn

5251
04:31:10,560 --> 04:31:14,120
Speaker 1: Youngkin pulled off last year in Virginia, that that would

5252
04:31:14,160 --> 04:31:16,200
Speaker 1: be the key to a tsunami, not just to a

5253
04:31:16,240 --> 04:31:19,480
Speaker 1: good night, but to a tsunami. And so I think

5254
04:31:19,520 --> 04:31:22,360
Speaker 1: what we're getting from that interview is that the rights

5255
04:31:22,480 --> 04:31:25,480
Speaker 1: grass roots, and Terry's a good gauge of that, the

5256
04:31:25,600 --> 04:31:29,280
Speaker 1: rights roots is gonna want more. They're gonna want pedal

5257
04:31:29,360 --> 04:31:32,720
Speaker 1: to the metal, as opposed to saying like the Republican

5258
04:31:32,800 --> 04:31:36,880
Speaker 1: autopsy in twenty twelve, which was let's back off, let's

5259
04:31:36,960 --> 04:31:39,320
Speaker 1: back off of all of these social and cultural issues.

5260
04:31:39,480 --> 04:31:41,520
Speaker 1: This was the ranks previous RNC put out the twenty

5261
04:31:41,560 --> 04:31:44,720
Speaker 1: twelve autopsy after Romney lost and said we will never

5262
04:31:44,800 --> 04:31:47,360
Speaker 1: be winning Hispanic voters if we continue on this track,

5263
04:31:47,440 --> 04:31:50,800
Speaker 1: we will never be winning. The sort of emerging Democratic

5264
04:31:50,840 --> 04:31:54,480
Speaker 1: coalition is going to be straight in one direction. But

5265
04:31:55,120 --> 04:31:58,160
Speaker 1: that you know, it seems like what we're seeing is

5266
04:31:58,280 --> 04:32:02,720
Speaker 1: not more of that, but the opposite from the conservative grossrooms. Yeah,

5267
04:32:02,760 --> 04:32:07,320
Speaker 1: and instead, in Kansas right now, Laura Kelly, the Democrat,

5268
04:32:08,200 --> 04:32:11,120
Speaker 1: is ahead in her re election bid with eighty eight

5269
04:32:11,160 --> 04:32:15,960
Speaker 1: percent of the votes in. She's up by four point

5270
04:32:16,040 --> 04:32:20,640
Speaker 1: two points. She was considered to be someone who had

5271
04:32:21,240 --> 04:32:24,080
Speaker 1: a shot, a good shot at reelection. It wouldn't be

5272
04:32:24,120 --> 04:32:26,600
Speaker 1: a total shock that she wins, but for people who

5273
04:32:26,640 --> 04:32:29,240
Speaker 1: were from outside of Kansas and went, wait a minute,

5274
04:32:29,240 --> 04:32:31,880
Speaker 1: a Democrat is winning a reelection in Kansas. Thought this

5275
04:32:32,040 --> 04:32:34,200
Speaker 1: was going to be a I thought there's gonna be

5276
04:32:34,200 --> 04:32:38,640
Speaker 1: a red wave. Gretchen Whitmer still up at this point

5277
04:32:38,720 --> 04:32:44,920
Speaker 1: by three point four points with forty percent in. Yeah,

5278
04:32:45,840 --> 04:32:50,360
Speaker 1: that has narrowed a good bit. What was she up before?

5279
04:32:50,680 --> 04:32:54,960
Speaker 1: So you're wayne, Wayne County has eight percent in. Wayne

5280
04:32:55,000 --> 04:33:00,360
Speaker 1: County only has eight percent in at this point. So no,

5281
04:33:00,520 --> 04:33:03,960
Speaker 1: that's that's a So Gretchen Whitmer was a and is

5282
04:33:04,280 --> 04:33:07,680
Speaker 1: I think continues to be a real like if we're

5283
04:33:07,720 --> 04:33:10,320
Speaker 1: in a tsunami, That's a good pick up for Republicans

5284
04:33:10,360 --> 04:33:14,520
Speaker 1: because Tudor Dixon, from their perspective, ran a good campaign,

5285
04:33:14,720 --> 04:33:18,040
Speaker 1: especially in the home stretch. And Gretchen Whitmer I think

5286
04:33:18,200 --> 04:33:20,720
Speaker 1: is a bad candidate. I think she really botched her

5287
04:33:20,800 --> 04:33:23,560
Speaker 1: COVID response. I think she's been similar to Kathy Hokeel

5288
04:33:23,919 --> 04:33:28,400
Speaker 1: and being dismissive of parents' concerns and the same way

5289
04:33:28,440 --> 04:33:32,040
Speaker 1: that Hochel has been dismissive of concerns about crime. But

5290
04:33:32,720 --> 04:33:36,480
Speaker 1: what but she's still up right now, right there, there

5291
04:33:36,520 --> 04:33:39,040
Speaker 1: are a lot of votes that are remaining right Hokel

5292
04:33:39,120 --> 04:33:42,160
Speaker 1: was seventy seven percent in still up, is up by

5293
04:33:42,280 --> 04:33:45,919
Speaker 1: nine points. Tough to see how Zelden makes that up.

5294
04:33:47,600 --> 04:33:51,360
Speaker 1: And another reach that republic Republicans were going for was

5295
04:33:51,400 --> 04:33:54,960
Speaker 1: in New Mexico, Michelle Leuhan Grisham was seen as vulnerable,

5296
04:33:55,080 --> 04:33:57,080
Speaker 1: like they thought that maybe they could knock her, knock

5297
04:33:57,160 --> 04:34:01,680
Speaker 1: her out in a real red wave. A way, how

5298
04:34:01,720 --> 04:34:04,000
Speaker 1: many we got in about half a million votes in

5299
04:34:04,160 --> 04:34:07,520
Speaker 1: seventy percent of the votes counted. She's up by about

5300
04:34:07,560 --> 04:34:12,000
Speaker 1: seven points so far, could still lose. But again, like

5301
04:34:12,440 --> 04:34:16,360
Speaker 1: this is where Democrats would prefer to be rather than

5302
04:34:16,800 --> 04:34:19,120
Speaker 1: hoping that they can come back. All right, we're getting

5303
04:34:19,160 --> 04:34:24,880
Speaker 1: some numbers from Oregon. Yes, this is the race where

5304
04:34:25,440 --> 04:34:29,960
Speaker 1: Betsy Johnson, who is the independent Democrat bankrolled by the

5305
04:34:30,080 --> 04:34:33,760
Speaker 1: Nike CEO. What a political system. Well this is just wonderful.

5306
04:34:34,040 --> 04:34:37,399
Speaker 1: Like Bessy Johnson. By the way, Nike itself bankrolled by China,

5307
04:34:38,240 --> 04:34:41,480
Speaker 1: and so Betsy Johnson herself, if she decides to run

5308
04:34:41,600 --> 04:34:43,880
Speaker 1: as a third party candidate, it's free country to do

5309
04:34:43,960 --> 04:34:45,640
Speaker 1: what you want. She's going to get one or two percent.

5310
04:34:46,200 --> 04:34:48,080
Speaker 1: But then a billionaire is like, you know what, I

5311
04:34:48,160 --> 04:34:51,280
Speaker 1: think this would be funny and just bankrolls her entire

5312
04:34:51,320 --> 04:34:54,280
Speaker 1: campaign and then becomes a credible one. She's doing worse

5313
04:34:54,360 --> 04:35:00,560
Speaker 1: so far, at least then Republicans that hope she's at

5314
04:35:00,640 --> 04:35:04,480
Speaker 1: nine point. She's at nine percent of the vote, but

5315
04:35:04,560 --> 04:35:07,840
Speaker 1: at very close race with fewer than half the votes in,

5316
04:35:07,960 --> 04:35:11,320
Speaker 1: just under half the votes in you have the Democrat

5317
04:35:11,360 --> 04:35:13,360
Speaker 1: over the Republican by one point. You know, this is

5318
04:35:13,440 --> 04:35:19,199
Speaker 1: one This is one that that I think Republicans correct

5319
04:35:19,200 --> 04:35:20,919
Speaker 1: me if I'm wrong here, would really love to win

5320
04:35:21,080 --> 04:35:25,320
Speaker 1: to show that like Antifa and the Wolkesters out in Oregon,

5321
04:35:25,560 --> 04:35:28,080
Speaker 1: you know, really got their got their come up and yeah,

5322
04:35:28,200 --> 04:35:29,920
Speaker 1: I mean, and let's look at this right now, the

5323
04:35:30,000 --> 04:35:32,600
Speaker 1: Oregon governor's race. It's another one like Gretchen Whitmer, but

5324
04:35:32,759 --> 04:35:35,600
Speaker 1: way even more dramatic than Gretcha Whitmer. That Republicans said,

5325
04:35:36,080 --> 04:35:40,320
Speaker 1: if if these polls are correct, because there was a

5326
04:35:40,680 --> 04:35:45,880
Speaker 1: shocking level of closeness between Kotech and Dresen in the

5327
04:35:45,960 --> 04:35:50,000
Speaker 1: remaining days of the race for Oregan's governorship right now

5328
04:35:50,160 --> 04:35:52,719
Speaker 1: with forty seven percent of the votes in Oregon has

5329
04:35:52,800 --> 04:35:55,879
Speaker 1: not had a Republican governor, mind you, since the nineteen eighties.

5330
04:35:56,280 --> 04:35:58,840
Speaker 1: That's forty five point five percent to forty four point

5331
04:35:59,200 --> 04:36:04,720
Speaker 1: six percent, So that's within a percentage point in freaking Oregon,

5332
04:36:04,919 --> 04:36:07,120
Speaker 1: and we don't know if that stands. I think it's

5333
04:36:07,240 --> 04:36:09,920
Speaker 1: it's very possible Dreson ends up losing that by a

5334
04:36:10,000 --> 04:36:12,880
Speaker 1: few points. And if that's the case, I mean, I

5335
04:36:12,919 --> 04:36:16,079
Speaker 1: think Republicans will still feel okay about it. But if

5336
04:36:16,160 --> 04:36:20,759
Speaker 1: Drayson pulls that off, whatever happens in Pennsylvania gets sort

5337
04:36:20,800 --> 04:36:25,880
Speaker 1: of counterbalanced by that, and the downstream implications for that are, well,

5338
04:36:25,919 --> 04:36:30,240
Speaker 1: then what happens to Mitch McConnell and are the you know,

5339
04:36:30,640 --> 04:36:33,720
Speaker 1: do you then need to listen more to the Terry

5340
04:36:33,759 --> 04:36:35,919
Speaker 1: Shillings of the world. Do you need to listen? Uh,

5341
04:36:36,440 --> 04:36:39,640
Speaker 1: you know, less this becomes a question like, is there

5342
04:36:39,680 --> 04:36:42,120
Speaker 1: a real pickup opportunity for Democrats if you have the

5343
04:36:42,200 --> 04:36:45,640
Speaker 1: right candidate. And I don't know, I don't have a

5344
04:36:45,680 --> 04:36:48,120
Speaker 1: good answer to that. But in Oregon it's still not

5345
04:36:48,480 --> 04:36:52,000
Speaker 1: clear cut, and there's no universe in which we should

5346
04:36:52,000 --> 04:36:55,360
Speaker 1: be saying. In Oregon it's still a clear cut at

5347
04:36:55,400 --> 04:36:59,120
Speaker 1: this point, and so we'll see again. I think it's

5348
04:36:59,160 --> 04:37:03,360
Speaker 1: still POSSI that, uh, Jason Lews is probably more likely

5349
04:37:03,440 --> 04:37:05,720
Speaker 1: than not. We don't know. It's hard to say, but

5350
04:37:05,800 --> 04:37:10,400
Speaker 1: I think that's worth looking at. Uh. Back on back

5351
04:37:10,480 --> 04:37:17,559
Speaker 1: in the Senate with Fetterman and Oz Fetterman, with more

5352
04:37:17,600 --> 04:37:20,440
Speaker 1: than ninety five percent of the votes in in Erie County,

5353
04:37:20,720 --> 04:37:24,200
Speaker 1: has beaten doctor Oz up there fifty three to forty four.

5354
04:37:24,280 --> 04:37:29,080
Speaker 1: What's that tell you? I mean this, this shouldn't necessarily

5355
04:37:29,120 --> 04:37:33,240
Speaker 1: this shouldn't be Democratic country. Up. This is the very

5356
04:37:33,320 --> 04:37:36,320
Speaker 1: northwest tip of the state. This is a very rural area,

5357
04:37:37,960 --> 04:37:41,480
Speaker 1: you know, for Trump area. Let's see how did how

5358
04:37:41,520 --> 04:37:45,240
Speaker 1: did Trump? Let's see how did Trump vote Erie County?

5359
04:37:46,280 --> 04:37:48,960
Speaker 1: Because I think that's the real story here is is

5360
04:37:49,040 --> 04:37:55,160
Speaker 1: if Oz is dramatically underperforming Trump. You're getting a good

5361
04:37:55,400 --> 04:37:58,680
Speaker 1: kind of answer to this question because again you look

5362
04:37:58,720 --> 04:38:03,440
Speaker 1: at DeSantis over performing Trump. But so far there's no

5363
04:38:03,759 --> 04:38:06,919
Speaker 1: real clear cut narrative about some of those other candidates. JD.

5364
04:38:07,080 --> 04:38:12,240
Speaker 1: Vance did fairly well. But did Erie County go for Biden?

5365
04:38:12,560 --> 04:38:14,960
Speaker 1: It looks like it looks like this was a Clinton

5366
04:38:15,000 --> 04:38:20,039
Speaker 1: to Trump hol on, let me say so. The other

5367
04:38:20,080 --> 04:38:22,840
Speaker 1: thing I'll say is Wisconsin right now. So it was

5368
04:38:22,880 --> 04:38:26,520
Speaker 1: sixty eight So the final unofficial results Biden sixty eight thousand,

5369
04:38:26,600 --> 04:38:30,600
Speaker 1: Trump sixty six thousand, So it's very tight. And Trump

5370
04:38:30,680 --> 04:38:36,840
Speaker 1: had beaten Hillary in twenty sixteen in Erie County and

5371
04:38:36,960 --> 04:38:41,440
Speaker 1: so now you but now you have Fetterman winning this

5372
04:38:41,680 --> 04:38:44,880
Speaker 1: by twelve thousand. So listen to this. All right. This

5373
04:38:45,040 --> 04:38:46,880
Speaker 1: is from Vox, and I want to pick up on

5374
04:38:46,960 --> 04:38:51,200
Speaker 1: something that Crystal said last hour, which was really real.

5375
04:38:51,440 --> 04:38:55,320
Speaker 1: I thought it was really interesting about and you were

5376
04:38:55,360 --> 04:39:00,000
Speaker 1: talking about this as well, just sort of whether Republicans

5377
04:39:00,880 --> 04:39:03,360
Speaker 1: and we read the Third Way data about how Republicans

5378
04:39:03,400 --> 04:39:06,480
Speaker 1: were generally more trusted on the economy and inflation than Democrats,

5379
04:39:06,520 --> 04:39:09,640
Speaker 1: and most people are saying that they they think if

5380
04:39:09,680 --> 04:39:12,840
Speaker 1: democrats control Congress, inflation will get worse. That's from the

5381
04:39:13,080 --> 04:39:14,800
Speaker 1: Third Way survey that came out in the last week.

5382
04:39:14,840 --> 04:39:18,440
Speaker 1: Here from Vox, Republicans have spent one hundred and fifty

5383
04:39:18,480 --> 04:39:20,919
Speaker 1: seven million dollars on crime related ads at the national

5384
04:39:21,040 --> 04:39:23,160
Speaker 1: level compared to one hundred and five million on the

5385
04:39:23,240 --> 04:39:26,719
Speaker 1: economy and inflation, according to data from the ad analysis

5386
04:39:26,800 --> 04:39:30,160
Speaker 1: firm Impact ad Impact. So that's one hundred and fifty

5387
04:39:30,200 --> 04:39:33,640
Speaker 1: seven million on crime and then one hundred and five

5388
04:39:33,720 --> 04:39:37,520
Speaker 1: million on the economy and inflation. Now, Vox continues, the

5389
04:39:37,640 --> 04:39:41,600
Speaker 1: breakdown is even starker in the Pennsylvania Senate race, where

5390
04:39:41,640 --> 04:39:45,000
Speaker 1: Republicans have spent nearly twelve million dollars on crime ads

5391
04:39:45,360 --> 04:39:49,600
Speaker 1: compared to two point five million on the economy and inflation.

5392
04:39:50,400 --> 04:39:55,160
Speaker 1: Where this race stands right now, is a potential Fetterman win. Yeah,

5393
04:39:55,960 --> 04:39:59,000
Speaker 1: is it? Because so Hillary very narrowly won Erie Counting.

5394
04:39:59,040 --> 04:40:01,600
Speaker 1: By the way, I just s against Trump, Biden very

5395
04:40:01,680 --> 04:40:08,360
Speaker 1: narrowly wanted. He's and is crushing os in Erie County.

5396
04:40:09,160 --> 04:40:13,199
Speaker 1: Another Fetterman person says, quote, we feel fucking good, okay,

5397
04:40:13,400 --> 04:40:15,160
Speaker 1: and that they said that to you. Yeah, all right,

5398
04:40:15,240 --> 04:40:17,320
Speaker 1: So you have a story from Fetterman saying we feel

5399
04:40:17,320 --> 04:40:19,079
Speaker 1: fucking good, which is a big deal right now at

5400
04:40:19,120 --> 04:40:21,640
Speaker 1: eleven fifty two, because if the red tsunami prediction was

5401
04:40:21,720 --> 04:40:25,000
Speaker 1: panning out right now, if the red wave prediction was

5402
04:40:25,080 --> 04:40:28,080
Speaker 1: panning out right now, you just probably wouldn't see that.

5403
04:40:28,160 --> 04:40:30,120
Speaker 1: They would not be feeling good. They would not be

5404
04:40:30,200 --> 04:40:33,640
Speaker 1: feeling so if we again, like you could still see

5405
04:40:33,880 --> 04:40:36,480
Speaker 1: certain places Republicans doing better than people think. We don't

5406
04:40:36,480 --> 04:40:38,079
Speaker 1: know what's gonna happen in Arizona. We don't know what's

5407
04:40:38,080 --> 04:40:40,080
Speaker 1: gonna happen in Nevada, we don't know what's gonna happen

5408
04:40:40,120 --> 04:40:43,720
Speaker 1: in Oregon. That is all very true, But what is

5409
04:40:43,800 --> 04:40:46,080
Speaker 1: not true is that we're in some giant wave. And Ryan,

5410
04:40:46,120 --> 04:40:48,399
Speaker 1: I want to ask that question to you, did Republicans

5411
04:40:48,440 --> 04:40:52,680
Speaker 1: talk too much about crime? Because the conventional Belwegh wisdom

5412
04:40:52,759 --> 04:40:57,919
Speaker 1: going into tonight was the Republicans that Democrats talk too

5413
04:40:58,040 --> 04:41:00,920
Speaker 1: little about crime. I think I think this is and

5414
04:41:01,040 --> 04:41:03,320
Speaker 1: this is going back to something that I've been thinking

5415
04:41:03,360 --> 04:41:06,600
Speaker 1: about more that a lot of what we do is

5416
04:41:06,640 --> 04:41:14,600
Speaker 1: pointless because you can only shape reality so much. And

5417
04:41:14,759 --> 04:41:19,160
Speaker 1: that goes that's messaging, that's media, that's social media, and

5418
04:41:19,240 --> 04:41:22,120
Speaker 1: then there is also reality. Now you can shape, you

5419
04:41:22,200 --> 04:41:25,759
Speaker 1: can create vibes, you can, you can, you can indeed

5420
04:41:26,000 --> 04:41:29,440
Speaker 1: kind of shape vibes, create media, narratives. Media and arrators

5421
04:41:29,480 --> 04:41:32,640
Speaker 1: can then you know, work downstream and then affect the

5422
04:41:32,720 --> 04:41:36,440
Speaker 1: way that people make decisions. So it's all of these

5423
04:41:36,520 --> 04:41:39,239
Speaker 1: things are related, but we talk in the media as

5424
04:41:39,320 --> 04:41:43,000
Speaker 1: if that's all that matters. And the reason we talk

5425
04:41:43,040 --> 04:41:44,759
Speaker 1: about that is because that's what we can look at.

5426
04:41:45,280 --> 04:41:48,960
Speaker 1: It's like that famous joke about the guy who's looking

5427
04:41:49,360 --> 04:41:53,280
Speaker 1: the drunken losses keys and is looking underneath the lamppost,

5428
04:41:53,400 --> 04:41:54,560
Speaker 1: like is this where he lost He's like, no, I

5429
04:41:54,600 --> 04:41:55,760
Speaker 1: lost it on the other side of the street. But

5430
04:41:55,840 --> 04:41:59,680
Speaker 1: this is where the light is. And so we look

5431
04:41:59,720 --> 04:42:01,800
Speaker 1: where the light is, and the light is. What are

5432
04:42:01,880 --> 04:42:05,919
Speaker 1: democrats saying? What are Republicans saying? What are the fundamentals?

5433
04:42:06,480 --> 04:42:08,480
Speaker 1: So that's that's where we get to reality when we

5434
04:42:08,560 --> 04:42:11,920
Speaker 1: start to talk about fundamentals, and that's important. You know,

5435
04:42:13,040 --> 04:42:15,560
Speaker 1: the first midterm of a presidential blah blah blah. Everybody

5436
04:42:15,600 --> 04:42:21,400
Speaker 1: knows those fundamentals. But the material reality of two things

5437
04:42:21,480 --> 04:42:28,720
Speaker 1: one dobs like democrats talking about not talking about it

5438
04:42:28,840 --> 04:42:32,520
Speaker 1: doesn't change the fact that a right that existed for

5439
04:42:32,600 --> 04:42:37,600
Speaker 1: fifty years that had widespread support depending on you know,

5440
04:42:38,520 --> 04:42:43,199
Speaker 1: depending on how you pull, it was taken away. People

5441
04:42:43,360 --> 04:42:47,040
Speaker 1: voted in special elections throughout the summer in ways that

5442
04:42:47,160 --> 04:42:49,760
Speaker 1: defied the polls. They voted in Kansas in ways that

5443
04:42:49,800 --> 04:42:51,680
Speaker 1: defied the polls. Are voting in Kentucky tonight in the

5444
04:42:51,759 --> 04:42:56,759
Speaker 1: ways that defied the polls. And what people talk about

5445
04:42:56,960 --> 04:43:06,320
Speaker 1: is important. But people are their own individual individuals moving

5446
04:43:06,600 --> 04:43:10,120
Speaker 1: through this world, and they know that the Supreme Court

5447
04:43:11,240 --> 04:43:14,200
Speaker 1: overturned Roe v. Wade. They also know that jobs are

5448
04:43:14,240 --> 04:43:18,360
Speaker 1: increasing that if they get fired they can probably get

5449
04:43:18,360 --> 04:43:22,920
Speaker 1: another job. Although real wages are pretty significant, real wages

5450
04:43:23,040 --> 04:43:26,280
Speaker 1: are either flat or up depending If you're a lower

5451
04:43:26,320 --> 04:43:29,360
Speaker 1: wage worker, your wages are up. If you're a higher

5452
04:43:29,400 --> 04:43:33,680
Speaker 1: wage worker, they're not. If you've jumped, if you've switched jobs,

5453
04:43:33,720 --> 04:43:38,080
Speaker 1: your wages are significantly up. But on average, real wages

5454
04:43:38,080 --> 04:43:41,120
Speaker 1: are up for the lowest income workers, but down because

5455
04:43:41,160 --> 04:43:45,080
Speaker 1: of inflation for the median. You can, but you have

5456
04:43:45,200 --> 04:43:46,559
Speaker 1: more power at work, and you can get a job

5457
04:43:46,600 --> 04:43:50,120
Speaker 1: if you get fired. People forget the media, forgets how

5458
04:43:50,200 --> 04:43:53,200
Speaker 1: much it sucks when unemployment is up at five, six, seven,

5459
04:43:53,280 --> 04:43:56,719
Speaker 1: eight nine percent. Absolutely, but maybe real people don't forget

5460
04:43:56,759 --> 04:44:00,440
Speaker 1: that and are like, yes, I hate inflation, but I

5461
04:44:00,640 --> 04:44:02,960
Speaker 1: like that there are jobs. I like that I have

5462
04:44:03,080 --> 04:44:05,400
Speaker 1: more power at work, and I don't necessarily blame Democrats

5463
04:44:05,720 --> 04:44:09,200
Speaker 1: only for inflation because Joe Biden just came in. So

5464
04:44:10,560 --> 04:44:14,320
Speaker 1: maybe we maybe all the talking about messaging is a

5465
04:44:14,360 --> 04:44:18,360
Speaker 1: little bit much, and that actually, like it didn't matter

5466
04:44:18,480 --> 04:44:22,040
Speaker 1: that people do not like that Roe v. Wade was overturned.

5467
04:44:23,240 --> 04:44:25,680
Speaker 1: People want to People want to come out and vote

5468
04:44:25,720 --> 04:44:29,880
Speaker 1: because now for once people can actually, you know, it

5469
04:44:30,120 --> 04:44:34,240
Speaker 1: make a difference voting on that. Now here's here's you know,

5470
04:44:34,320 --> 04:44:38,520
Speaker 1: here's where they say democracy is on the ballot. Except

5471
04:44:39,720 --> 04:44:43,160
Speaker 1: the result of this election, in which the country I

5472
04:44:43,200 --> 04:44:47,240
Speaker 1: think pretty thoroughly demonstrated that it supports abortion rights. The

5473
04:44:47,320 --> 04:44:49,440
Speaker 1: result is not going to be that the country then

5474
04:44:49,480 --> 04:44:52,199
Speaker 1: gets abortion rights back. So democracy might be on the ballot.

5475
04:44:52,320 --> 04:44:55,760
Speaker 1: We've got a weird democracy. Meanwhile, and I mentioned this earlier,

5476
04:44:56,680 --> 04:44:58,960
Speaker 1: We're probably going to get a giant debate over cutting

5477
04:44:59,000 --> 04:45:03,399
Speaker 1: social security and medic here from Biden and House Republicans.

5478
04:45:03,800 --> 04:45:06,080
Speaker 1: Nobody ran on that, nobody voted for it. So what

5479
04:45:06,520 --> 04:45:09,840
Speaker 1: kind of democracy is that? I actually think this probably

5480
04:45:09,960 --> 04:45:13,160
Speaker 1: blunts any discussion of that because you noticed Kevin McCarthy

5481
04:45:13,240 --> 04:45:15,879
Speaker 1: only started talking about that, as as Terry pointed out,

5482
04:45:15,960 --> 04:45:18,560
Speaker 1: only started talking about that when Republicans really felt like

5483
04:45:18,600 --> 04:45:20,879
Speaker 1: they had the win at their backs, and it was like, hey,

5484
04:45:21,360 --> 04:45:23,320
Speaker 1: now we can sort of feel good enough, we're going

5485
04:45:23,400 --> 04:45:26,120
Speaker 1: to start talking about X, Y and Z. And that's

5486
04:45:26,360 --> 04:45:30,480
Speaker 1: that's just not what happened, you know. It's it's like that.

5487
04:45:30,800 --> 04:45:32,720
Speaker 1: I don't know. I think this probably feels like a

5488
04:45:32,840 --> 04:45:36,280
Speaker 1: rebuke to Republicans who wanted to talk about social security,

5489
04:45:37,040 --> 04:45:40,000
Speaker 1: it wanted to talk about entitlements in general. Now that

5490
04:45:40,120 --> 04:45:42,720
Speaker 1: remains to be seen, but another slap in the face

5491
04:45:42,800 --> 04:45:47,320
Speaker 1: to this, the red title Wave narrative would be looking

5492
04:45:47,360 --> 04:45:50,880
Speaker 1: at New York. New York was a pick up that

5493
04:45:51,120 --> 04:45:57,440
Speaker 1: felt like tsunami territory. It felt like really tsunami territory.

5494
04:45:57,560 --> 04:46:00,800
Speaker 1: Because right here I have the r CDP average. As

5495
04:46:00,960 --> 04:46:06,840
Speaker 1: yesterday you had Hokeel up in general. I mean, Hockel

5496
04:46:06,919 --> 04:46:10,160
Speaker 1: was was pretty well. Pokel was up seven in the

5497
04:46:10,320 --> 04:46:14,720
Speaker 1: RCPA average as of yesterday, and as of right now,

5498
04:46:15,400 --> 04:46:22,919
Speaker 1: Hokel is perhaps this right here, Hokel is uh fifty

5499
04:46:23,000 --> 04:46:27,800
Speaker 1: four point to Zeldon's forty five point eight percent in

5500
04:46:28,040 --> 04:46:30,520
Speaker 1: the New York governor race. That's was seventy nine percent reporting.

5501
04:46:30,640 --> 04:46:33,919
Speaker 1: That looks like we're how Sean Patrick doing. I think

5502
04:46:33,960 --> 04:46:36,440
Speaker 1: he's not. Oh, he's still down by six points. D

5503
04:46:36,560 --> 04:46:40,360
Speaker 1: Triple C chair down by six percentage points. Tell us

5504
04:46:40,360 --> 04:46:43,240
Speaker 1: about meaning Republican, tell us more about that. I mean

5505
04:46:43,600 --> 04:46:46,800
Speaker 1: so yes. So for people that didn't follow this, So

5506
04:46:46,919 --> 04:46:51,280
Speaker 1: Sean Patrick Maloney is the chair chair of the D

5507
04:46:51,440 --> 04:46:55,240
Speaker 1: Triple C, which runs the House campaign arm. He used

5508
04:46:55,280 --> 04:46:59,240
Speaker 1: to be in district what eighteen or seventeen what, it

5509
04:46:59,280 --> 04:47:00,920
Speaker 1: doesn't matter. He would he was in a district to

5510
04:47:01,040 --> 04:47:05,919
Speaker 1: the west. A Republican in Pittsburgh redrew all of New

5511
04:47:06,000 --> 04:47:10,520
Speaker 1: York's districts. The weirdest thing, Like there's all sorts of

5512
04:47:11,000 --> 04:47:13,200
Speaker 1: fun conspiracy theories if you'd go down the rabbit hole

5513
04:47:13,200 --> 04:47:16,360
Speaker 1: about what role the Cuomo Worlds was and payback and

5514
04:47:16,440 --> 04:47:20,120
Speaker 1: all this nonsense. But anyway, so that in the middle

5515
04:47:20,160 --> 04:47:27,280
Speaker 1: of the races, they redraw all of New York's congressional districts. Immediately,

5516
04:47:27,400 --> 04:47:30,040
Speaker 1: Sean Patrick Maloney, who's the chair of the Teacherble C,

5517
04:47:30,120 --> 04:47:33,600
Speaker 1: announces he's leaving the district he's in, which is which

5518
04:47:33,720 --> 04:47:38,520
Speaker 1: was like a deep split district basically to jump into

5519
04:47:38,560 --> 04:47:42,840
Speaker 1: a district that's more favorable for him. Only problem it

5520
04:47:43,000 --> 04:47:46,840
Speaker 1: was currently occupied by an incumbent Democrat mondere Jones. Is

5521
04:47:46,919 --> 04:47:50,520
Speaker 1: that puts mondere Jones in this really difficult situation. Does

5522
04:47:50,560 --> 04:47:52,640
Speaker 1: he want to run a primary against the D Triple

5523
04:47:52,680 --> 04:47:55,080
Speaker 1: C chair if he wins, what kind of help is

5524
04:47:55,120 --> 04:47:56,520
Speaker 1: he going to get from thed Triple CE in the

5525
04:47:56,600 --> 04:48:00,239
Speaker 1: general or is he going to find another district run

5526
04:48:00,280 --> 04:48:01,960
Speaker 1: and or is he he didn't have to run, or

5527
04:48:02,040 --> 04:48:03,720
Speaker 1: is he gonna, you know, step down and go work

5528
04:48:03,759 --> 04:48:05,120
Speaker 1: with the DOJ for a couple of years and then

5529
04:48:05,160 --> 04:48:10,360
Speaker 1: come back. So he looked at Jamal Bowman's district, which

5530
04:48:10,440 --> 04:48:12,960
Speaker 1: was just just to the south. His team did polling

5531
04:48:13,000 --> 04:48:15,120
Speaker 1: of that district. Then we're stunned to find how popular

5532
04:48:15,240 --> 04:48:18,600
Speaker 1: Jamal Bowman was. Paul Bowman ended up winning his primary

5533
04:48:18,600 --> 04:48:22,759
Speaker 1: and a landside went one tonight in a landside, Richie

5534
04:48:22,840 --> 04:48:24,960
Speaker 1: Torres sent out a signal, you don't don't come up,

5535
04:48:25,000 --> 04:48:28,200
Speaker 1: don't don't come over here, Jamal Bowman yep. So so

5536
04:48:28,720 --> 04:48:30,400
Speaker 1: then he looks around. He goes to Manhattan and he

5537
04:48:30,480 --> 04:48:33,040
Speaker 1: runs in New York's tenth district, which represents Manhattan. So

5538
04:48:33,160 --> 04:48:36,919
Speaker 1: Mande Jones loses there, so he's heading out of Congress.

5539
04:48:37,720 --> 04:48:40,040
Speaker 1: Also that Jean Patrick Maloney can get an easier seat,

5540
04:48:40,400 --> 04:48:43,840
Speaker 1: and now he's it looks like he's losing that man

5541
04:48:43,960 --> 04:48:46,080
Speaker 1: maybe so maybe now mandere Jones goes back to that

5542
04:48:46,160 --> 04:48:49,280
Speaker 1: district and runs in twenty twenty four. Right, So, Ryan,

5543
04:48:49,840 --> 04:48:53,160
Speaker 1: how do you explain that you wanted to represent Manhattan? Oh?

5544
04:48:53,320 --> 04:48:57,079
Speaker 1: Good God? So Ryan and I could keep going here

5545
04:48:57,400 --> 04:49:00,720
Speaker 1: all night. Actually we would if not, so Sager, until

5546
04:49:00,800 --> 04:49:03,240
Speaker 1: Saga rolled in. Yeah, Soccer would come in and he

5547
04:49:03,320 --> 04:49:05,280
Speaker 1: would have water, and he'd be looking up at the

5548
04:49:05,320 --> 04:49:06,920
Speaker 1: sun and have all the energy in the world. And

5549
04:49:07,240 --> 04:49:09,400
Speaker 1: and and Ryan and I woke up this morning and

5550
04:49:09,480 --> 04:49:15,000
Speaker 1: chose the violence in terms of our liquids. Yeah, heady

5551
04:49:15,040 --> 04:49:17,919
Speaker 1: topper smuggled in from Vermont. That's right, and it will.

5552
04:49:18,200 --> 04:49:20,520
Speaker 1: My dad texted, he said, stop cursing. I'm just quoting

5553
04:49:20,720 --> 04:49:24,680
Speaker 1: your dad's I'm just quoting what people are telling me. Yeah,

5554
04:49:25,040 --> 04:49:27,360
Speaker 1: I'm not gonna I'm not gonna suppress. Why would you

5555
04:49:27,520 --> 04:49:32,360
Speaker 1: dad shoot the messengers as a sensor? Yeah, tell them, Yeah, no,

5556
04:49:32,480 --> 04:49:34,440
Speaker 1: I I this is not this is not water. It's

5557
04:49:34,560 --> 04:49:39,840
Speaker 1: it's well, it's it's wine. But all that said, we

5558
04:49:39,919 --> 04:49:42,600
Speaker 1: could keep going here, but the team needs to get

5559
04:49:42,680 --> 04:49:45,560
Speaker 1: up by point, right by point. The crew has to

5560
04:49:45,600 --> 04:49:47,240
Speaker 1: get up for tomorrow. Yeah, right, the crew has so

5561
04:49:47,360 --> 04:49:49,520
Speaker 1: do you guys. You guys probably work tomorrow, but Soccer

5562
04:49:49,520 --> 04:49:52,680
Speaker 1: and Crystal are coming in early to get results out

5563
04:49:52,720 --> 04:49:54,520
Speaker 1: to you guys right away. And frankly, I think that

5564
04:49:54,600 --> 04:49:58,400
Speaker 1: makes the most sense because Philadelphia right now announced just

5565
04:49:58,720 --> 04:50:00,919
Speaker 1: in the last couple of days that it was going

5566
04:50:01,000 --> 04:50:03,360
Speaker 1: to be really hard for them to get any vote

5567
04:50:03,560 --> 04:50:06,480
Speaker 1: clarity on what happened in photo Republicans the well, but

5568
04:50:06,720 --> 04:50:09,040
Speaker 1: Republicans sue them because of the mass influx of mail

5569
04:50:09,080 --> 04:50:10,600
Speaker 1: and bouts, which I forgot to say earlier when you

5570
04:50:10,640 --> 04:50:13,960
Speaker 1: were making that point there we are seeing historically like

5571
04:50:14,080 --> 04:50:18,760
Speaker 1: unprecedented levels of mail in ballots. Still, people like to vote.

5572
04:50:19,040 --> 04:50:22,759
Speaker 1: People like to vote. So that said, I actually think

5573
04:50:22,759 --> 04:50:24,600
Speaker 1: that makes a lot of sense because there's only so

5574
04:50:24,720 --> 04:50:26,840
Speaker 1: much we can do. We can't talk about Rick Caruso

5575
04:50:27,120 --> 04:50:30,680
Speaker 1: in the LA Mayor's race, which is if Republicans want

5576
04:50:30,720 --> 04:50:34,640
Speaker 1: to feel good about a so called realignment, the message

5577
04:50:34,720 --> 04:50:37,680
Speaker 1: might not be as we're wrapping up right now, Ryan,

5578
04:50:38,120 --> 04:50:40,440
Speaker 1: the message Republicans I think wanted to take from this

5579
04:50:41,000 --> 04:50:44,280
Speaker 1: was a MAGA message, was that the realignment was going

5580
04:50:44,400 --> 04:50:48,120
Speaker 1: to come on the back of the Maga movement, And

5581
04:50:48,360 --> 04:50:50,800
Speaker 1: the message that they might be getting, in fact, is

5582
04:50:50,880 --> 04:50:55,759
Speaker 1: that the realignment that's going to help them with Hispanic voters,

5583
04:50:56,120 --> 04:50:59,800
Speaker 1: with Cuban voters and Mexican voters, with Black voters and

5584
04:51:00,080 --> 04:51:04,239
Speaker 1: Cuban voters might not be a Maga message, but might

5585
04:51:04,320 --> 04:51:08,000
Speaker 1: be something actually that is completely different, that is independent

5586
04:51:08,400 --> 04:51:13,440
Speaker 1: in its feeling and not tied specifically to Donald Trump,

5587
04:51:13,880 --> 04:51:16,920
Speaker 1: who is his flirting with whether or not he would

5588
04:51:16,960 --> 04:51:19,960
Speaker 1: run in the last few days felt like a potential

5589
04:51:20,120 --> 04:51:23,720
Speaker 1: turnout mechanism for Republicans because he's popular with some, you know,

5590
04:51:24,000 --> 04:51:26,320
Speaker 1: really hardcore trunk of like thirty percent of the base

5591
04:51:26,400 --> 04:51:28,600
Speaker 1: that love Donald Trump, and there are a lot of

5592
04:51:28,640 --> 04:51:31,080
Speaker 1: Trump voters who love Donald Trump more than a Republican party.

5593
04:51:31,120 --> 04:51:32,640
Speaker 1: I think it's even more than half if you look

5594
04:51:32,680 --> 04:51:36,720
Speaker 1: at the numbers. But whether or not that translates into

5595
04:51:36,800 --> 04:51:41,680
Speaker 1: electoral victories outside of Republican strongholds means Republicans might need

5596
04:51:41,800 --> 04:51:46,960
Speaker 1: more Glenn youngkins than they do Maga cannon. Although Mayra

5597
04:51:47,000 --> 04:51:49,080
Speaker 1: Flores was at Glenn Young Canada, she was one of

5598
04:51:49,160 --> 04:51:51,880
Speaker 1: your Bellwethers. So update on that ninety two percent of

5599
04:51:51,919 --> 04:51:53,720
Speaker 1: the votes in and she's down by nine. I was

5600
04:51:53,720 --> 04:51:55,680
Speaker 1: actually going to say the opposite. She's she's not a

5601
04:51:55,759 --> 04:51:59,880
Speaker 1: Glen Yunkin candidate. She's a maga candidate. She's pretty hard maga.

5602
04:52:00,720 --> 04:52:05,719
Speaker 1: She she's very much Trump candidate. And Lauren Bobert, by

5603
04:52:05,720 --> 04:52:07,760
Speaker 1: the way, it might be headed to a surprise loss

5604
04:52:08,200 --> 04:52:11,600
Speaker 1: in Colorado, which nobody saw coming a very magic candidate.

5605
04:52:11,800 --> 04:52:14,520
Speaker 1: She's still down for. She's down for. Okay, Times calls

5606
04:52:14,560 --> 04:52:17,320
Speaker 1: her likely Republican. But she's still down for with seventy

5607
04:52:17,360 --> 04:52:20,520
Speaker 1: five percent, So the margin is narrowing. Okay, so that

5608
04:52:20,600 --> 04:52:23,360
Speaker 1: could easily flip. But if she's in a close race,

5609
04:52:23,640 --> 04:52:26,080
Speaker 1: I mean, that could still prove the point. We don't

5610
04:52:26,120 --> 04:52:28,320
Speaker 1: know yet. And again that's why Sager Crysler coenim right

5611
04:52:28,400 --> 04:52:32,120
Speaker 1: and early. But the point remains, I'll stop looking. Yeah,

5612
04:52:32,120 --> 04:52:35,160
Speaker 1: that's a good idea. The point remains that like this

5613
04:52:35,280 --> 04:52:38,720
Speaker 1: could be going in a direction that's like okay for

5614
04:52:38,840 --> 04:52:42,759
Speaker 1: Republicans and okay for Democrats, and okay for Democrats. It's

5615
04:52:43,000 --> 04:52:46,800
Speaker 1: better than expected for Democrats and okay for Republicans. Is

5616
04:52:46,960 --> 04:52:50,000
Speaker 1: worse than expected for Republicans if you really need to

5617
04:52:50,040 --> 04:52:52,360
Speaker 1: fix I've been doing a live chat which I've been

5618
04:52:52,400 --> 04:52:55,320
Speaker 1: neglecting on my substack, which is called called bad News.

5619
04:52:55,400 --> 04:52:58,280
Speaker 1: Tell us what Ken did? Oh yeah, so my substack

5620
04:52:58,400 --> 04:53:00,520
Speaker 1: is called bad News. Ken's I forget what his is called,

5621
04:53:00,560 --> 04:53:05,280
Speaker 1: but probably just Ken Clippenstein. So I's tried out this

5622
04:53:05,400 --> 04:53:10,040
Speaker 1: chat functions live chat that's going on right now, and

5623
04:53:10,840 --> 04:53:13,480
Speaker 1: Ken kept jumping in there and posting links to his

5624
04:53:13,600 --> 04:53:16,640
Speaker 1: own newsletter in my live chat, which is great. Everybody

5625
04:53:16,680 --> 04:53:19,600
Speaker 1: sign up for Ken clippin Stein's newsletter. I'm all for that. Yeah.

5626
04:53:19,680 --> 04:53:21,360
Speaker 1: So as I head out of here, I'll go back

5627
04:53:21,360 --> 04:53:25,160
Speaker 1: into that live chat. That's bad News on substack. Emily,

5628
04:53:25,280 --> 04:53:28,560
Speaker 1: it's been it's been fun. And I guess we will

5629
04:53:28,640 --> 04:53:31,040
Speaker 1: see you. We'll see you on Thursday and here you

5630
04:53:31,040 --> 04:53:34,000
Speaker 1: guys will see Soger and Crystal tomorrow morning. That's right.

5631
04:53:34,040 --> 04:53:37,280
Speaker 1: You have full breaking points coverage all week because it's

5632
04:53:37,320 --> 04:53:40,960
Speaker 1: election week obviously. And Crystal ended there sort of part

5633
04:53:41,000 --> 04:53:45,200
Speaker 1: of the broadcast tonight just by thanking premium subscribers. Yeah,

5634
04:53:45,200 --> 04:53:47,519
Speaker 1: the crew was telling us that a bunch of subscriptions

5635
04:53:47,560 --> 04:53:50,600
Speaker 1: were coming in tonight. That's what makes this possible. That's

5636
04:53:50,600 --> 04:53:53,960
Speaker 1: what makes having people on the road possible. That's what

5637
04:53:54,080 --> 04:53:57,240
Speaker 1: makes bringing Status Kup and Jordan Charrisan's reporters from the

5638
04:53:57,280 --> 04:54:01,000
Speaker 1: ground in. So thank you for doing that. Keep those

5639
04:54:01,080 --> 04:54:03,480
Speaker 1: subscriptions coming in so we can keep growing. So we've

5640
04:54:03,480 --> 04:54:06,360
Speaker 1: got a presidential election coming up. All we can say

5641
04:54:06,440 --> 04:54:08,559
Speaker 1: is thank you, We appreciate it so much, and Soccer

5642
04:54:08,560 --> 04:54:11,280
Speaker 1: and Crystal will be back here with you all tomorrow morning.

5643
04:54:11,640 --> 04:54:13,440
Speaker 1: That's the right call because a lot of the stuff,

5644
04:54:13,600 --> 04:54:15,840
Speaker 1: you know, it's going to be morning until we have

5645
04:54:15,960 --> 04:54:18,200
Speaker 1: concrete answers. So thank you to everybody for tuning in.

5646
04:54:18,520 --> 04:54:21,079
Speaker 1: They'll see you back here bright and early. Get some sleep.