1 00:00:00,120 --> 00:00:02,920 Speaker 1: Brought you by Bank of America Mary Lynch. Investing in 2 00:00:03,000 --> 00:00:07,840 Speaker 1: local communities, economies and a sustainable future. That's the power 3 00:00:08,080 --> 00:00:12,360 Speaker 1: of global connections. Mary Lynch, Pierce Fenner and Smith Incorporated 4 00:00:12,760 --> 00:00:27,400 Speaker 1: member s I p C. Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. 5 00:00:27,840 --> 00:00:31,520 Speaker 1: I'm Tom Keene with David Gura. Daily we bring you 6 00:00:31,560 --> 00:00:36,600 Speaker 1: insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. 7 00:00:37,000 --> 00:00:41,600 Speaker 1: Find Bloomberg Surveillance on iTunes, SoundCloud, Bloomberg dot Com, and 8 00:00:41,680 --> 00:00:49,519 Speaker 1: of course, on the Bloomberg. John Sylvia, chief economist at 9 00:00:49,520 --> 00:00:51,599 Speaker 1: Welles parknas with us here in our Bloomberg eleven three 10 00:00:51,600 --> 00:00:53,760 Speaker 1: oh studios in New York. I imagine you were among 11 00:00:53,840 --> 00:00:57,000 Speaker 1: those hoping for looking for specifics last night. Give us 12 00:00:57,000 --> 00:00:58,960 Speaker 1: a sense of what stood out to you, what you 13 00:00:59,000 --> 00:01:01,520 Speaker 1: heard and what you didn't hear. UM a more general 14 00:01:01,960 --> 00:01:05,360 Speaker 1: presidential tone I think was very very positive. I think 15 00:01:05,440 --> 00:01:10,200 Speaker 1: perhaps the lack of detail tells us that they're in negotiations, UM, 16 00:01:10,319 --> 00:01:13,600 Speaker 1: that they're trying to bring in the Democrats in different 17 00:01:13,640 --> 00:01:17,400 Speaker 1: areas and trying to come up along with perhaps the 18 00:01:17,480 --> 00:01:22,240 Speaker 1: fiscally conservative Republicans and coming up with programs that actually 19 00:01:22,319 --> 00:01:25,200 Speaker 1: wanted to get past. The speech was mostly perspective. He 20 00:01:25,240 --> 00:01:27,080 Speaker 1: was looking ahead to the two and fifty anniversary of 21 00:01:27,080 --> 00:01:29,119 Speaker 1: the founding of the country. Kept talking about how we're 22 00:01:29,160 --> 00:01:31,000 Speaker 1: nine years away from that. There was a moment that 23 00:01:31,080 --> 00:01:34,199 Speaker 1: where he took stock of where we are today. He said, 24 00:01:34,200 --> 00:01:36,760 Speaker 1: we've watched our middle class shrink. Ninety four million Americans 25 00:01:36,760 --> 00:01:38,600 Speaker 1: are out of the labor force. What did you make 26 00:01:38,600 --> 00:01:42,319 Speaker 1: of the picture he painted of the American economy right now? Well, 27 00:01:42,920 --> 00:01:47,280 Speaker 1: I would say that the better educated, more computer literate 28 00:01:47,520 --> 00:01:51,760 Speaker 1: folks are doing very well in major urban areas. But 29 00:01:51,880 --> 00:01:55,480 Speaker 1: it is those other areas in the United States which 30 00:01:55,600 --> 00:01:59,720 Speaker 1: continue to lag behind, uh, the middle income areas. The 31 00:02:00,040 --> 00:02:05,600 Speaker 1: level of middle skills, less information technology skills, um, those 32 00:02:05,600 --> 00:02:08,880 Speaker 1: folks are still struggling. He he rattled off a list 33 00:02:08,919 --> 00:02:11,720 Speaker 1: of companies he has, let's say, engaged with here since 34 00:02:11,760 --> 00:02:13,880 Speaker 1: he became a president, since he was elected president in 35 00:02:13,880 --> 00:02:16,840 Speaker 1: the first few weeks of his term. He talked about Ford, Chrystler, 36 00:02:16,840 --> 00:02:19,799 Speaker 1: General Motors, Sprints, Soft Bank, Lockheed, Intil. The list goes 37 00:02:19,840 --> 00:02:22,399 Speaker 1: on and on. What do you make of the interface 38 00:02:22,440 --> 00:02:24,440 Speaker 1: he's had with those companies and the degree which he's 39 00:02:24,440 --> 00:02:28,280 Speaker 1: taking credit here for them hiring, building new factories, moving jobs, 40 00:02:28,560 --> 00:02:30,680 Speaker 1: as he put it back to the US. Well, well, David, 41 00:02:31,320 --> 00:02:34,120 Speaker 1: it's interesting when you go through that list, the focus 42 00:02:33,800 --> 00:02:38,000 Speaker 1: it really is intensely on manufacturing. H not on the 43 00:02:38,000 --> 00:02:42,919 Speaker 1: service sector. Um, it is, you know, large scale manufacturing. Okay, 44 00:02:42,960 --> 00:02:47,000 Speaker 1: so so so where is the small manufacturing firm? Where 45 00:02:47,000 --> 00:02:51,040 Speaker 1: are the service firms? Um? Where are the healthcare firms 46 00:02:51,080 --> 00:02:54,079 Speaker 1: they are going to have to deliver on healthcare reform? 47 00:02:54,840 --> 00:02:58,200 Speaker 1: Where is the educational institutions are going to have to 48 00:02:58,240 --> 00:03:04,000 Speaker 1: deliver on educating um, the middle income group, re educating people. Um, 49 00:03:04,040 --> 00:03:07,000 Speaker 1: that's what I'd like to see, Jeff Sylvia. When I 50 00:03:07,000 --> 00:03:10,200 Speaker 1: look at all the mix of things, I guess it's 51 00:03:10,240 --> 00:03:11,839 Speaker 1: the bet, where are we going to be a year 52 00:03:11,880 --> 00:03:13,840 Speaker 1: from now? Where are we gonna be two years from now? 53 00:03:14,480 --> 00:03:17,359 Speaker 1: Will the president and frankly with Capital Hill, will they 54 00:03:17,480 --> 00:03:21,640 Speaker 1: move the fiscal needle? Will they move the nominal GDP needle? 55 00:03:22,000 --> 00:03:25,080 Speaker 1: Or is that is that vertict out right now? I 56 00:03:25,120 --> 00:03:28,000 Speaker 1: think they will move the needle. Uh. I think it's 57 00:03:28,040 --> 00:03:30,440 Speaker 1: going to be a struggle to get to some of 58 00:03:30,480 --> 00:03:33,000 Speaker 1: the three and a half four percent GDP numbers they 59 00:03:33,600 --> 00:03:37,320 Speaker 1: talk about on a sustained basis. And I think Manuchin 60 00:03:37,360 --> 00:03:40,280 Speaker 1: talked about over the next ten years, you've got to 61 00:03:40,320 --> 00:03:43,920 Speaker 1: do something with productivity, which goes back to technology and education. 62 00:03:44,440 --> 00:03:47,400 Speaker 1: You've got to do something with lay before its participation rates. 63 00:03:47,440 --> 00:03:50,560 Speaker 1: It's easy in my world, uh, in a very keensy 64 00:03:50,680 --> 00:03:53,800 Speaker 1: in sense, to get three percent four percent GDP for 65 00:03:53,960 --> 00:03:57,240 Speaker 1: one year. To do it on a sustained basis requires 66 00:03:57,240 --> 00:04:00,200 Speaker 1: you do something on a supply side. Is there are 67 00:04:00,200 --> 00:04:02,400 Speaker 1: a degree of short termism here. We talked about those 68 00:04:02,600 --> 00:04:05,600 Speaker 1: those companies, Uh, those big companies bring some jobs back 69 00:04:05,600 --> 00:04:08,640 Speaker 1: here building factories. There's the prospect here of of raising 70 00:04:08,640 --> 00:04:11,520 Speaker 1: defense spending rather significantly here, getting sort of maybe a 71 00:04:11,560 --> 00:04:14,520 Speaker 1: short term sugar high from from doing that. Uh. Despite 72 00:04:14,520 --> 00:04:16,520 Speaker 1: the rhetoric about looking ahead to the year two or 73 00:04:16,560 --> 00:04:19,200 Speaker 1: fifty years after the country's founding, perhaps the president just 74 00:04:19,240 --> 00:04:21,479 Speaker 1: wants to do something now, to uh do something the 75 00:04:21,480 --> 00:04:24,440 Speaker 1: near term. Well, unfortunately, David, you know, for an economist, 76 00:04:24,480 --> 00:04:27,160 Speaker 1: I'm very concerned that there would be a focus too 77 00:04:27,279 --> 00:04:31,560 Speaker 1: much on doing something for the you know, election. We 78 00:04:31,600 --> 00:04:35,600 Speaker 1: have to show results. Um, yeah, you can show some results, 79 00:04:35,640 --> 00:04:39,200 Speaker 1: but again, trying to say it's sustained over time without 80 00:04:39,279 --> 00:04:42,840 Speaker 1: running into the problems of a much higher inflation rate, 81 00:04:42,880 --> 00:04:45,560 Speaker 1: because if all you knew is stimulate demand, you're gonna 82 00:04:45,600 --> 00:04:48,400 Speaker 1: generate higher inflation. Room is the Feds are gonna look 83 00:04:48,440 --> 00:04:50,240 Speaker 1: at this and say, okay, now we need to stop 84 00:04:50,320 --> 00:04:53,400 Speaker 1: raising rates. The dollar gets stronger, and then all of 85 00:04:53,440 --> 00:04:56,760 Speaker 1: a sudden, all this manufacturing focus is going to be 86 00:04:56,839 --> 00:04:59,560 Speaker 1: stymied in many ways with respect to a very stronger 87 00:04:59,680 --> 00:05:02,440 Speaker 1: dollar that's going to limit your exports. He mostly stuck 88 00:05:02,480 --> 00:05:04,159 Speaker 1: to script last night. We got the prepared to marks 89 00:05:04,279 --> 00:05:07,479 Speaker 1: ahead of the speech. He did extemporaneously speak a few times. 90 00:05:07,480 --> 00:05:09,240 Speaker 1: He talked about corporate tax re form. He said it's 91 00:05:09,240 --> 00:05:11,559 Speaker 1: going to be a big, big cut. Veering off script 92 00:05:11,600 --> 00:05:13,359 Speaker 1: there a little bit. When you look at all he 93 00:05:13,600 --> 00:05:18,080 Speaker 1: laid out a trillion dollars infrastructure spending, corporate taxes from 94 00:05:18,240 --> 00:05:20,560 Speaker 1: what to your mind stands the greatest chance of being 95 00:05:20,560 --> 00:05:24,359 Speaker 1: stimultive economically, Well, both of them would be stimulative. But 96 00:05:24,440 --> 00:05:29,560 Speaker 1: when you say big, enormous, stupendous to me, I am, 97 00:05:29,720 --> 00:05:32,880 Speaker 1: I am. I'm sitting here thinking, okay, now, where are 98 00:05:32,880 --> 00:05:36,719 Speaker 1: the fiscal conservatives in Congress and what are the interest 99 00:05:36,800 --> 00:05:42,080 Speaker 1: rate slash dollar implications of a very very stupendous fiscal 100 00:05:42,160 --> 00:05:46,560 Speaker 1: policy program. You give me something again. As I tell 101 00:05:46,640 --> 00:05:49,920 Speaker 1: my clients, the great is sometimes the enemy of the good. 102 00:05:50,320 --> 00:05:53,640 Speaker 1: If you're going for great, you might just overlook the 103 00:05:53,680 --> 00:05:56,800 Speaker 1: opportunity to get something done. The Senator from your neck 104 00:05:56,839 --> 00:05:59,640 Speaker 1: of the woods, Lindsey Graham, I make a joke about it. 105 00:05:59,680 --> 00:06:03,039 Speaker 1: Can never remember which Carolina South Carolina. So that's the 106 00:06:03,080 --> 00:06:05,680 Speaker 1: other one. He come on, he said, the whole thing 107 00:06:05,800 --> 00:06:09,479 Speaker 1: is dead on arrival. What what's the process you will 108 00:06:09,600 --> 00:06:12,279 Speaker 1: observe forward? Does does he get our Does he have 109 00:06:12,520 --> 00:06:16,800 Speaker 1: a beer? An arrogancet lagger beer with speaking Ryan They 110 00:06:16,839 --> 00:06:23,919 Speaker 1: sell that in South Carolina? No, folks, the water was 111 00:06:23,960 --> 00:06:27,520 Speaker 1: so bad in Fall River, Massachusetts and John Sylvia's ute. 112 00:06:27,800 --> 00:06:32,080 Speaker 1: They served arrogant lagger beer breakfast, lunch, and dinner at 113 00:06:32,080 --> 00:06:35,159 Speaker 1: the Sylvia household. I tell you, Tom, it is. It 114 00:06:35,279 --> 00:06:39,320 Speaker 1: is indeed oftentimes breaking bread, sitting down with someone across 115 00:06:39,360 --> 00:06:43,799 Speaker 1: the table, sharing bread and saying, listen, we can be civil, 116 00:06:43,920 --> 00:06:46,600 Speaker 1: we can work things out. We have our differences. Can 117 00:06:46,680 --> 00:06:48,680 Speaker 1: we move forward? And again I'll go back to the 118 00:06:48,760 --> 00:06:51,200 Speaker 1: comment I made to David. The great can to be 119 00:06:51,279 --> 00:06:53,440 Speaker 1: sometimes the enemy of the good if you're just gonna 120 00:06:53,480 --> 00:06:57,160 Speaker 1: force your view on somebody and not listen to them 121 00:06:57,480 --> 00:07:00,560 Speaker 1: and go for gold in terms of your programs. I 122 00:07:00,600 --> 00:07:03,080 Speaker 1: think it's not gonna happen for all of our listeners. 123 00:07:03,200 --> 00:07:06,040 Speaker 1: Where will the revenues come from for all this joy 124 00:07:06,120 --> 00:07:09,400 Speaker 1: we are to expect. I think the fiscal conservatives and 125 00:07:09,440 --> 00:07:12,040 Speaker 1: Congress are going to limit what we talk about in 126 00:07:12,120 --> 00:07:15,400 Speaker 1: terms of corporate tax reform, what we're talking about, how 127 00:07:15,560 --> 00:07:18,640 Speaker 1: how how many years are we stretching out the infrastructure spending? 128 00:07:18,880 --> 00:07:21,840 Speaker 1: How many years are we stretching out the defense spending 129 00:07:22,120 --> 00:07:26,280 Speaker 1: such that the revenue needs will be modest relative to 130 00:07:26,280 --> 00:07:28,480 Speaker 1: what some projections are now. There wasn't a whole lot 131 00:07:28,520 --> 00:07:30,520 Speaker 1: of talk about energy last night. He did say he 132 00:07:30,600 --> 00:07:32,680 Speaker 1: cleared the way for the building of the Keyston Excel 133 00:07:32,720 --> 00:07:35,040 Speaker 1: and the Dakota Access pipelines. Of course, with oil where 134 00:07:35,040 --> 00:07:37,800 Speaker 1: it's at today, who knows how quickly were if that 135 00:07:37,800 --> 00:07:40,800 Speaker 1: that might happen. Um How important energy policy is going 136 00:07:40,840 --> 00:07:42,520 Speaker 1: to be for this administration, Well, it's going to be 137 00:07:42,600 --> 00:07:44,520 Speaker 1: very important because if you want to produce more, you're 138 00:07:44,520 --> 00:07:47,480 Speaker 1: gonna use more energy. If you're gonna do more imports 139 00:07:47,480 --> 00:07:51,040 Speaker 1: and exports, the trucks have to run somewhere so that again, 140 00:07:51,080 --> 00:07:56,960 Speaker 1: that whole process is energy is integral to increasing overall 141 00:07:57,000 --> 00:07:59,720 Speaker 1: production and employment in the United States. Our colleague Kevin 142 00:07:59,800 --> 00:08:01,560 Speaker 1: Through talked to Wilbur Ross as he made his way 143 00:08:01,600 --> 00:08:03,160 Speaker 1: to the chamber of the NEWCOMERCE Secretary. They had a 144 00:08:03,160 --> 00:08:05,920 Speaker 1: bit of a conversation about trade and trade policies. Your 145 00:08:05,960 --> 00:08:08,040 Speaker 1: sense here that it's going to center mostly at least 146 00:08:08,080 --> 00:08:10,040 Speaker 1: in the short term one enforcement that this administration is 147 00:08:10,080 --> 00:08:11,920 Speaker 1: going to be bring more things before the w T 148 00:08:12,040 --> 00:08:14,520 Speaker 1: o oh. I would say that would be the easier 149 00:08:14,560 --> 00:08:17,880 Speaker 1: way for them to go, to bring up individual cases 150 00:08:18,360 --> 00:08:20,320 Speaker 1: and to focus on, you know, what can be done. 151 00:08:20,360 --> 00:08:22,680 Speaker 1: But again, I like the idea that Wilber Ross is 152 00:08:22,720 --> 00:08:24,840 Speaker 1: a business person. He's done deal so we can do 153 00:08:24,920 --> 00:08:30,400 Speaker 1: deals before without being confrontational about blaming another nation or 154 00:08:30,680 --> 00:08:34,439 Speaker 1: a strategy. John, We've you've written. Unfortunately, were gonna have 155 00:08:34,440 --> 00:08:37,640 Speaker 1: to leave it here very quickly. Is it a guilded age? 156 00:08:37,880 --> 00:08:41,000 Speaker 1: To me? Not only it is a guilded age, but 157 00:08:41,040 --> 00:08:44,800 Speaker 1: it's gotten ever more guilded in the last year or two. 158 00:08:44,880 --> 00:08:47,760 Speaker 1: Do you buy that or do you see a lessoning 159 00:08:47,840 --> 00:08:50,920 Speaker 1: of inequalities? No, I think when you look at the data, 160 00:08:50,960 --> 00:08:53,440 Speaker 1: it's pretty clear that it is a guilded age. For 161 00:08:54,280 --> 00:09:00,520 Speaker 1: um information technology. Information processing individuals in major metropolitan cities 162 00:09:00,760 --> 00:09:05,800 Speaker 1: has become increasingly difficult for manufacturing blue collar and smaller 163 00:09:05,840 --> 00:09:09,240 Speaker 1: and more remote cities. John Sylvia with Wills Fargo with Us, 164 00:09:09,240 --> 00:09:11,960 Speaker 1: thank you so much for your time this morning, Sylvie greatly. 165 00:09:12,400 --> 00:09:27,719 Speaker 1: I appreciate that they admiral from Tufts University and their 166 00:09:27,760 --> 00:09:31,040 Speaker 1: Fletcher School Dean's Travis Admiral once again, good to speak 167 00:09:31,040 --> 00:09:38,480 Speaker 1: to you, Great David, Admiral. October two a m. We 168 00:09:38,559 --> 00:09:42,040 Speaker 1: lost two undred and forty one Marines in Lebanon along 169 00:09:42,080 --> 00:09:45,520 Speaker 1: with fifty eight French peacekeepers. We lost a guy in Yemen. 170 00:09:45,640 --> 00:09:47,840 Speaker 1: I get it. We saw all the emotion in the 171 00:09:47,920 --> 00:09:51,840 Speaker 1: drama last night. Basically, I believe we have a commander 172 00:09:51,880 --> 00:09:55,480 Speaker 1: in chief going after the general's over a military mission. 173 00:09:55,960 --> 00:09:59,920 Speaker 1: I don't recall in my reading any other president that's 174 00:10:00,040 --> 00:10:03,640 Speaker 1: ever done that. Am I wrong? Now, you're absolutely correct, 175 00:10:03,760 --> 00:10:09,520 Speaker 1: And you know, as we always say, with accountability comes responsibility, 176 00:10:09,559 --> 00:10:12,680 Speaker 1: and he is the commander in chief. Last two words 177 00:10:12,720 --> 00:10:16,920 Speaker 1: pretty important there, and so it's a little surprising to 178 00:10:17,000 --> 00:10:19,040 Speaker 1: hear that tone coming out of the White House. Town 179 00:10:19,240 --> 00:10:22,960 Speaker 1: please explain and define commander in chief from the eyes 180 00:10:23,000 --> 00:10:25,720 Speaker 1: of a guy that came out of Annapolis a million 181 00:10:25,840 --> 00:10:29,280 Speaker 1: years ago and dragged his way across a number of ships. 182 00:10:29,600 --> 00:10:32,800 Speaker 1: What does what does commander in chief translate to in 183 00:10:32,840 --> 00:10:37,680 Speaker 1: the military? It is the ultimate embodiment of civilian control 184 00:10:37,720 --> 00:10:40,520 Speaker 1: of the military, which is something we never never want 185 00:10:40,559 --> 00:10:43,239 Speaker 1: to let go of. That's bedrock for the U. S. Military. 186 00:10:43,360 --> 00:10:47,360 Speaker 1: So having a civilian be the commander in chief, he 187 00:10:47,800 --> 00:10:50,480 Speaker 1: obviates all the other commanders in the chain of command. 188 00:10:50,520 --> 00:10:55,560 Speaker 1: He supersedes them or she and ultimately that responsibility, that 189 00:10:55,679 --> 00:10:59,839 Speaker 1: awesome responsibility, requires accountability as well. An Stravids. I was 190 00:10:59,840 --> 00:11:02,280 Speaker 1: talking with Todd Harrison yesterday from the Center for Strategic 191 00:11:02,320 --> 00:11:04,560 Speaker 1: International Studies. I think it's safe to say nobody knows 192 00:11:04,559 --> 00:11:07,079 Speaker 1: the defense budget better than he does. He's made a 193 00:11:07,120 --> 00:11:10,079 Speaker 1: career of studying it. We were talking about this increase 194 00:11:10,080 --> 00:11:12,840 Speaker 1: that the president has proposed in the defense budget. Help 195 00:11:12,880 --> 00:11:15,160 Speaker 1: me square something. You've got a president who talks about 196 00:11:15,160 --> 00:11:18,520 Speaker 1: withdrawing from international conflict, having a smaller footprint here at 197 00:11:18,520 --> 00:11:21,600 Speaker 1: the same time as talking about spending more money on defense. 198 00:11:21,679 --> 00:11:25,400 Speaker 1: Does that make sense to you? Does not? And uh? 199 00:11:25,520 --> 00:11:29,400 Speaker 1: I think that, um, you get to pick whether you 200 00:11:29,440 --> 00:11:33,439 Speaker 1: want to be Teddy Roosevelt Uh, speak softly and carry 201 00:11:33,440 --> 00:11:36,640 Speaker 1: a really big stick or um. The way the Trump 202 00:11:36,679 --> 00:11:40,440 Speaker 1: administration is heading is speak loudly, uh, but with a 203 00:11:40,520 --> 00:11:44,600 Speaker 1: larger stick um. And so I think we have to 204 00:11:44,679 --> 00:11:48,040 Speaker 1: wait and see the actions that the administration takes. But 205 00:11:48,200 --> 00:11:51,240 Speaker 1: certainly at the moment it's a little difficult to square 206 00:11:51,280 --> 00:11:53,559 Speaker 1: the circle. When Donald Trump was a candidate, he was 207 00:11:53,640 --> 00:11:56,960 Speaker 1: eager for the president to say three words radical Islamic terrorism. 208 00:11:56,960 --> 00:11:59,000 Speaker 1: Indeed he did utter them last night on the floor 209 00:11:59,000 --> 00:12:01,240 Speaker 1: of the House. Cham Or, I go back to the 210 00:12:01,240 --> 00:12:05,480 Speaker 1: reporting on National Security Council hr McMaster, the former general 211 00:12:05,520 --> 00:12:08,120 Speaker 1: now that National Security Advisor, not rather still still general 212 00:12:08,320 --> 00:12:11,439 Speaker 1: National Security Advisor, talked about uh. According to reporting, the 213 00:12:11,440 --> 00:12:13,880 Speaker 1: fact that that's not the motivator here. Apparently he's he's 214 00:12:13,920 --> 00:12:16,240 Speaker 1: lost out. What did you make of that? That rhetoric 215 00:12:16,320 --> 00:12:19,040 Speaker 1: last night, the President using it and still continuing to 216 00:12:19,040 --> 00:12:22,719 Speaker 1: say that's that's who's who's at fault here. It's inevitable 217 00:12:22,840 --> 00:12:26,640 Speaker 1: that someone like President Trump, who's built his whole campaign 218 00:12:26,679 --> 00:12:29,640 Speaker 1: around this, is going to use phrasing like that. It is. 219 00:12:30,000 --> 00:12:33,440 Speaker 1: It does not help us with our Muslim allies, who 220 00:12:33,480 --> 00:12:36,520 Speaker 1: are very much in this fight against organizations like the 221 00:12:36,559 --> 00:12:41,080 Speaker 1: Islamic State and al Qaeda. It's undeniable that there are 222 00:12:41,520 --> 00:12:45,160 Speaker 1: radical elements in the Islamic face that are attacking us. 223 00:12:45,200 --> 00:12:48,320 Speaker 1: That's a fact um. But you know, to hammer at 224 00:12:48,400 --> 00:12:52,520 Speaker 1: home like that doesn't help us very much. Help us 225 00:12:52,559 --> 00:12:55,200 Speaker 1: with some fact checking here. As the former NATO Supreme 226 00:12:55,240 --> 00:12:57,760 Speaker 1: Allied Commander, we we heard the presidents say last night 227 00:12:58,280 --> 00:13:00,560 Speaker 1: that the money is pouring in from our our to allies, 228 00:13:00,559 --> 00:13:02,679 Speaker 1: that he sent his emissaries, the Vice President Mike Pence 229 00:13:02,679 --> 00:13:05,360 Speaker 1: and his Secretary of State Rex Taylerson two Europe to 230 00:13:05,360 --> 00:13:07,840 Speaker 1: talk to our allies about their commitments to NATO, and 231 00:13:07,840 --> 00:13:09,719 Speaker 1: then again as the president, that the money is is 232 00:13:09,760 --> 00:13:11,280 Speaker 1: pouring in. What did you make of that line and 233 00:13:11,320 --> 00:13:15,040 Speaker 1: what's changed here since those two gentlemen went to Europe. Well, uh, 234 00:13:15,200 --> 00:13:18,439 Speaker 1: the gentleman you're talking to me was at the Munich 235 00:13:18,520 --> 00:13:21,720 Speaker 1: Security Conference. Then I heard Vice President Pence, and I 236 00:13:21,760 --> 00:13:24,880 Speaker 1: heard Secretary Madison. Then I moderated a panel with five 237 00:13:25,400 --> 00:13:29,480 Speaker 1: NATO Ministers of Defense Secretaries of Defense. I would say 238 00:13:29,520 --> 00:13:32,040 Speaker 1: it's fair to say the promises are pouring in, but 239 00:13:32,160 --> 00:13:36,320 Speaker 1: we haven't seen the money yet. Uh, So let's be 240 00:13:36,440 --> 00:13:39,600 Speaker 1: hopeful that this kind of rhetoric will move the allies 241 00:13:39,640 --> 00:13:42,200 Speaker 1: to spend more. We need to keep it up. We 242 00:13:42,200 --> 00:13:44,959 Speaker 1: ought to remember that the last three Secretaries of Defense, 243 00:13:45,000 --> 00:13:48,160 Speaker 1: including the two that I worked for, UH did this 244 00:13:48,240 --> 00:13:52,240 Speaker 1: as well without a lot of effect. Having said that, overall, 245 00:13:52,360 --> 00:13:55,959 Speaker 1: NATO's a bargain for us. They're currently spending three billion 246 00:13:55,960 --> 00:13:59,120 Speaker 1: dollars a year on defense, which is more than Russia 247 00:13:59,200 --> 00:14:02,520 Speaker 1: and China comb Mind, they're they're good allies. We need 248 00:14:02,520 --> 00:14:04,800 Speaker 1: to keep pressing them to up a little bit, but 249 00:14:05,280 --> 00:14:08,520 Speaker 1: we should not let them go very quickly. What's your 250 00:14:08,520 --> 00:14:13,120 Speaker 1: wish list for your navy? What's the navy need? Number one, 251 00:14:13,280 --> 00:14:17,120 Speaker 1: we need new ballistic missile submarines. Tom, this is the 252 00:14:17,200 --> 00:14:22,200 Speaker 1: backbone of our There you go. Yes, indeed, at two 253 00:14:22,240 --> 00:14:26,640 Speaker 1: short guys in agreement. But I'd say after that, I'd 254 00:14:26,680 --> 00:14:29,720 Speaker 1: like to see the Joint Strike Fighter get on the 255 00:14:29,760 --> 00:14:32,280 Speaker 1: decks of our aircraft carrier. And number three we need 256 00:14:32,320 --> 00:14:36,040 Speaker 1: more of the agis global ballistic missile systems that knocked 257 00:14:36,080 --> 00:14:39,320 Speaker 1: down people like Kim Jong On's nuclear missiles. That that 258 00:14:39,440 --> 00:14:43,440 Speaker 1: is a great list for another conversation. James Tevitas, He 259 00:14:43,560 --> 00:14:46,600 Speaker 1: is dean of the Fletcher School it Toughs University, and 260 00:14:46,640 --> 00:14:59,040 Speaker 1: thank you particularly for those questions on Yemen, brought you 261 00:14:59,080 --> 00:15:02,560 Speaker 1: by Bank of A America. Mary Lynch dedicated to bringing 262 00:15:02,560 --> 00:15:06,320 Speaker 1: our clients insights and solutions to meet the challenges of 263 00:15:06,320 --> 00:15:10,840 Speaker 1: a transforming world. That's the power of global connections, Mary Lynch. 264 00:15:11,000 --> 00:15:19,600 Speaker 1: Pierce Federin Smith Incorporated, Member s I PC. Greg. You know, Greg, 265 00:15:19,640 --> 00:15:22,480 Speaker 1: they were all smiling on the floor last night, and 266 00:15:22,520 --> 00:15:26,600 Speaker 1: there's Senator Leahy talking to Admiral or General so and so, 267 00:15:26,880 --> 00:15:30,960 Speaker 1: and everybody's shaking hands, and all I could think of 268 00:15:31,320 --> 00:15:35,480 Speaker 1: was a Congressional Budget Office page fourteen of their forty 269 00:15:35,560 --> 00:15:40,000 Speaker 1: three page joy on the future of Navy budgeting. I 270 00:15:40,080 --> 00:15:43,680 Speaker 1: doubt the President's aware of this, but it's really about 271 00:15:43,840 --> 00:15:48,280 Speaker 1: lobbying and strong army and the power and the ballet 272 00:15:48,880 --> 00:15:52,440 Speaker 1: of building the three Navy projects Admiral Stravitez just told 273 00:15:52,520 --> 00:15:56,960 Speaker 1: us about on Blueberg surveillance. How does the administration adapt 274 00:15:57,760 --> 00:16:01,040 Speaker 1: their newness to the reality of the glad handing we 275 00:16:01,080 --> 00:16:04,840 Speaker 1: saw on the floor last night. I just don't think 276 00:16:04,920 --> 00:16:08,600 Speaker 1: Tom that Donald Trump cares too much about the being 277 00:16:08,680 --> 00:16:12,400 Speaker 1: encounters had the Congressional Budget Office. I mean, they're being 278 00:16:12,440 --> 00:16:15,800 Speaker 1: encounters and they will talk about how much things cost. 279 00:16:15,920 --> 00:16:19,480 Speaker 1: But I think once again, in a great speech last night, 280 00:16:19,520 --> 00:16:22,440 Speaker 1: by the way, but once again Donald Trump showed he 281 00:16:22,480 --> 00:16:26,520 Speaker 1: doesn't really care that much about the deficit. What do 282 00:16:26,560 --> 00:16:28,680 Speaker 1: you attribute this change in tone to You said in 283 00:16:28,680 --> 00:16:30,400 Speaker 1: your most recent note, We look forward to it whenever 284 00:16:30,440 --> 00:16:33,080 Speaker 1: you set it out most most days here this was 285 00:16:33,320 --> 00:16:36,040 Speaker 1: this was the greatest speech of his career, a stylistic 286 00:16:36,040 --> 00:16:40,440 Speaker 1: and substantive tour divorce. I imagine that you were as 287 00:16:40,520 --> 00:16:42,840 Speaker 1: as curious as all of us about how this was 288 00:16:42,840 --> 00:16:46,120 Speaker 1: going to go down last night. Absolutely, but I think 289 00:16:46,160 --> 00:16:49,280 Speaker 1: what prevailed in the end were the polls. And even 290 00:16:49,280 --> 00:16:52,960 Speaker 1: though Trump derives the polls, he knows his job approval 291 00:16:53,040 --> 00:16:57,600 Speaker 1: rating has slipped SODA's pants, SODA's previous and I think 292 00:16:57,640 --> 00:17:00,000 Speaker 1: they got together and said, you have got to change 293 00:17:00,400 --> 00:17:03,040 Speaker 1: your tone. And I think that change of tone is 294 00:17:03,080 --> 00:17:07,000 Speaker 1: going to yield really positive dividends. Let me ask you 295 00:17:07,040 --> 00:17:09,360 Speaker 1: what you heard about trade policy yesterday. There was kind 296 00:17:09,359 --> 00:17:11,480 Speaker 1: of a light moment when he brought up Harley Davidson. 297 00:17:11,720 --> 00:17:14,200 Speaker 1: Executives from that company visited the White House. They brought 298 00:17:14,680 --> 00:17:17,160 Speaker 1: five of their bikes, put him on the south lawn 299 00:17:17,160 --> 00:17:19,200 Speaker 1: of the White House, the President saying he was urged 300 00:17:19,240 --> 00:17:20,960 Speaker 1: to get on one of them, and he said no, no, 301 00:17:21,200 --> 00:17:23,680 Speaker 1: thanks to the executives there. What do we hear about 302 00:17:23,720 --> 00:17:26,000 Speaker 1: trade policy? What did he say he's heard from executives 303 00:17:26,000 --> 00:17:28,000 Speaker 1: he's been listening to about what they want to see 304 00:17:28,240 --> 00:17:31,000 Speaker 1: in terms of trade policy. Well, you know, I think 305 00:17:31,000 --> 00:17:34,520 Speaker 1: there'll be some retaliation against the Chinese we've pulled out 306 00:17:34,520 --> 00:17:38,560 Speaker 1: of a Transpacific partnership. But at the same time, I 307 00:17:38,600 --> 00:17:42,760 Speaker 1: think on most economic issues that the two Golden Sacs, 308 00:17:42,840 --> 00:17:47,399 Speaker 1: guys Cone and Minutin will call the shots, and Golden 309 00:17:47,440 --> 00:17:51,639 Speaker 1: Sacks does not believe in protectionism. Amid all of the 310 00:17:52,000 --> 00:17:55,080 Speaker 1: optimistic rehetoric, there were a few parts of the speech 311 00:17:55,119 --> 00:17:57,159 Speaker 1: that were a bit darker when he talked about crime, 312 00:17:57,160 --> 00:17:59,960 Speaker 1: in particular, He's talked a lot about the situation in Chicago, 313 00:18:00,080 --> 00:18:03,159 Speaker 1: in the woeful number of homicides we've seen there over 314 00:18:03,200 --> 00:18:05,680 Speaker 1: these last few years. But this is something he continues 315 00:18:05,720 --> 00:18:07,960 Speaker 1: to hit on. How well do you think that's that's resonanting? 316 00:18:07,960 --> 00:18:09,760 Speaker 1: Why do you think this president has focused so much 317 00:18:09,800 --> 00:18:13,160 Speaker 1: on crime and cities. Well, it's true, David. I mean 318 00:18:13,200 --> 00:18:16,119 Speaker 1: you look at the murder rate in places like Chicago, 319 00:18:16,240 --> 00:18:20,119 Speaker 1: but I think compared to the inaugural address, Trump looked 320 00:18:20,160 --> 00:18:23,359 Speaker 1: like little Miss Sunshine last night. He appealed to our 321 00:18:23,680 --> 00:18:26,960 Speaker 1: our better angels. I mean, there still aren't problems, but 322 00:18:27,800 --> 00:18:30,760 Speaker 1: somebody obviously got to him and told him he had 323 00:18:30,840 --> 00:18:33,240 Speaker 1: to lighten up. I just want to editorialize here that 324 00:18:33,320 --> 00:18:36,320 Speaker 1: Greg Villi, I think the President would look awfully good 325 00:18:36,440 --> 00:18:41,640 Speaker 1: on a Harley Electric Glide Ultra Classic in two thousand 326 00:18:41,680 --> 00:18:47,080 Speaker 1: one dollars. I mean that says, I mean Advanca could 327 00:18:47,080 --> 00:18:49,720 Speaker 1: take it around if he doesn't want to. That that's 328 00:18:49,760 --> 00:18:51,560 Speaker 1: it's like all of these big old street bikes John 329 00:18:51,600 --> 00:18:53,920 Speaker 1: Tucker like you had in your ute. Not like an 330 00:18:53,920 --> 00:18:56,560 Speaker 1: easy writer thing. It's much more of like a you know, 331 00:18:56,640 --> 00:19:00,080 Speaker 1: going down Park Avenue kind of kind of run of 332 00:19:00,119 --> 00:19:03,560 Speaker 1: secret Service restrictions on John Tucker. That would be true. Greg, 333 00:19:03,600 --> 00:19:07,480 Speaker 1: help me here with the reversion back to the behavior 334 00:19:07,640 --> 00:19:10,720 Speaker 1: that's had a lot of Americans a little bit on edge. 335 00:19:10,880 --> 00:19:13,520 Speaker 1: Do we get presidential tweets out of here or did 336 00:19:13,560 --> 00:19:17,359 Speaker 1: they take his phone away? Well that's the issue, isn't it. Guys. 337 00:19:17,520 --> 00:19:21,359 Speaker 1: I think that over the next seventy two hours, we'll 338 00:19:21,359 --> 00:19:25,640 Speaker 1: see what he tweets. Is he still angry, nasty? We'll 339 00:19:25,680 --> 00:19:27,960 Speaker 1: see what he says in these rallies that he and 340 00:19:28,000 --> 00:19:30,080 Speaker 1: Pense are going to go to in the next two 341 00:19:30,200 --> 00:19:32,760 Speaker 1: or three days. So he toned it down last night. 342 00:19:33,000 --> 00:19:35,960 Speaker 1: I thought it was a remarkable speech, but one speech 343 00:19:36,000 --> 00:19:38,480 Speaker 1: may not make a trend. Yeah, he heads down to 344 00:19:38,760 --> 00:19:42,840 Speaker 1: the USS gerald forward to a Navy super carrier tomorrow. 345 00:19:42,880 --> 00:19:44,679 Speaker 1: He's going to speak about the defense budget. I'm sure 346 00:19:44,680 --> 00:19:47,200 Speaker 1: while he's down there. Yeah, he talked about moving past 347 00:19:47,320 --> 00:19:51,399 Speaker 1: negativism and pessimism and fear. Greg Valier, I wonder if 348 00:19:51,400 --> 00:19:53,040 Speaker 1: he should have taken a little bit more credit for that. 349 00:19:53,080 --> 00:19:54,680 Speaker 1: You mentioned that speech that he gave at the r 350 00:19:54,800 --> 00:19:56,560 Speaker 1: n C. I mean, this is a guy who was 351 00:19:56,640 --> 00:20:01,040 Speaker 1: talking a lot about fear for a long time. Yeah, 352 00:20:01,080 --> 00:20:04,080 Speaker 1: obviously he was, you know, throwing red meat at the 353 00:20:04,320 --> 00:20:07,119 Speaker 1: at the true believers. But I do think that he 354 00:20:07,200 --> 00:20:10,160 Speaker 1: has to be mindful that his overall job approval rating 355 00:20:10,200 --> 00:20:15,119 Speaker 1: has dropped below. Political capital is tricky. He's got to 356 00:20:15,160 --> 00:20:19,159 Speaker 1: say some for Obamacare, that's that replacement is a big issue. 357 00:20:19,400 --> 00:20:22,199 Speaker 1: He's got to say something for tax reform. And I 358 00:20:22,240 --> 00:20:25,800 Speaker 1: think his advisors told him, you've got to be more moderate. 359 00:20:26,240 --> 00:20:28,920 Speaker 1: It's you watch this and you're looking for reaction. Tom 360 00:20:29,160 --> 00:20:31,960 Speaker 1: mentioned with glad handing the greeting of of of lawmakers 361 00:20:31,960 --> 00:20:34,280 Speaker 1: and cabinet officials at the beginning of the speech. During 362 00:20:34,320 --> 00:20:36,919 Speaker 1: the speech, you're looking to see who's applauding, who's standing up, 363 00:20:36,920 --> 00:20:39,199 Speaker 1: And I was struck by when the President mentioned that 364 00:20:39,240 --> 00:20:42,760 Speaker 1: one trillion dollar infrastructure package. Standing up behind him was 365 00:20:42,800 --> 00:20:44,919 Speaker 1: the House Speaker Paul Ryan. Were you surprised by that 366 00:20:44,960 --> 00:20:47,600 Speaker 1: that that had the support of the House Speaker? No. 367 00:20:47,800 --> 00:20:50,520 Speaker 1: I have heard Ryan in private talk about the Dwight 368 00:20:50,560 --> 00:20:55,720 Speaker 1: Eisenhower UH interstate highway spending in the fifties. I mean, 369 00:20:55,760 --> 00:20:58,560 Speaker 1: eisen now is responsible for all of the roads, the 370 00:20:58,600 --> 00:21:01,840 Speaker 1: big roads we have. I think Ryan would like to 371 00:21:02,119 --> 00:21:04,520 Speaker 1: I think Ryan would like to repeat that help us 372 00:21:04,520 --> 00:21:07,160 Speaker 1: with that historic lndalogue. The President very keen to make 373 00:21:07,200 --> 00:21:09,959 Speaker 1: that parallel there to President is an hour. How different 374 00:21:10,040 --> 00:21:12,320 Speaker 1: is this calling for the kind of private public partnership 375 00:21:12,600 --> 00:21:15,800 Speaker 1: the President's calling for. Well, I think it's important. I 376 00:21:15,840 --> 00:21:18,960 Speaker 1: think that Wilbur Ross, who's a very clever guy, is 377 00:21:19,000 --> 00:21:23,240 Speaker 1: going to try to lead a private sector drive on infrastructure. 378 00:21:23,640 --> 00:21:25,520 Speaker 1: I think the big problem is there aren't a lot 379 00:21:25,520 --> 00:21:28,520 Speaker 1: of Republicans in the House who want to spend one 380 00:21:28,640 --> 00:21:34,000 Speaker 1: trillion dollars. You you alluded, Greg today, I believe it 381 00:21:34,080 --> 00:21:36,199 Speaker 1: was you. Maybe it was Marty Schenker who becomes a 382 00:21:36,240 --> 00:21:39,640 Speaker 1: blur folks that the Tea Party is quote unquote dead. 383 00:21:39,720 --> 00:21:43,120 Speaker 1: I mean something along that line. Is there a Tea 384 00:21:43,200 --> 00:21:47,280 Speaker 1: Party constituency that stood up to Speaker Bayner? And will 385 00:21:47,359 --> 00:21:52,000 Speaker 1: they speak stand up to Speaker Ryan. Well, here's what 386 00:21:52,080 --> 00:21:56,520 Speaker 1: we gotta watch for, guys. March fifteenth, the debt ceiling expires, 387 00:21:56,760 --> 00:21:59,360 Speaker 1: They will not raise it, will have an ongoing crisis 388 00:21:59,440 --> 00:22:03,640 Speaker 1: until summer with Treasury limping along funding the government. And 389 00:22:03,880 --> 00:22:07,320 Speaker 1: on April, I think it's twenty eight of the Continuing 390 00:22:07,320 --> 00:22:11,720 Speaker 1: Resolution keeping the government open expires. So there's two really 391 00:22:11,760 --> 00:22:14,960 Speaker 1: big stories that will show whether there's still this Tea 392 00:22:15,000 --> 00:22:20,639 Speaker 1: Party ferocity to guess what's what's your observation? Oh? My 393 00:22:20,800 --> 00:22:24,520 Speaker 1: take is that Trump is indifferent to deficits. He wants 394 00:22:24,560 --> 00:22:26,800 Speaker 1: to jump start. Okay, I get that, Greg, But he 395 00:22:26,840 --> 00:22:30,360 Speaker 1: can propose, they have to they have to dispose, right, 396 00:22:31,359 --> 00:22:35,600 Speaker 1: he can't think they'll be an odd alliance once again 397 00:22:36,000 --> 00:22:40,879 Speaker 1: between House Republicans and House Democrats, will be an alliance 398 00:22:40,920 --> 00:22:44,040 Speaker 1: to agree to more spending. And I think that the 399 00:22:44,160 --> 00:22:47,200 Speaker 1: real hardcore fiscal hawks are going to lose to Trump. 400 00:22:47,359 --> 00:22:50,280 Speaker 1: And let's let us not forget Donald Trump at his 401 00:22:50,359 --> 00:22:53,840 Speaker 1: core is a Kinsian great. Before we let you go here, 402 00:22:53,880 --> 00:22:55,800 Speaker 1: let me ask you about the Democratic response. We haven't 403 00:22:55,800 --> 00:22:57,520 Speaker 1: talked about it yet, but she had Steve but Here, 404 00:22:57,560 --> 00:23:00,560 Speaker 1: the former governor of Kentucky, Democratic governor who is term 405 00:23:00,600 --> 00:23:03,960 Speaker 1: limited out of office now born in Dawson Springs, Kentucky, 406 00:23:04,320 --> 00:23:06,280 Speaker 1: has a tenure white case here in New York, finds 407 00:23:06,280 --> 00:23:08,359 Speaker 1: his way back to a diner in Lexington to deliver 408 00:23:08,440 --> 00:23:11,800 Speaker 1: that response last night. What did you hear from him 409 00:23:11,800 --> 00:23:14,080 Speaker 1: about the direction of the Democratic Party? What did he 410 00:23:14,119 --> 00:23:16,000 Speaker 1: say to you about where that party's headed, what it's 411 00:23:16,000 --> 00:23:19,000 Speaker 1: going to be prioritizing here going forward? And I think 412 00:23:19,040 --> 00:23:22,120 Speaker 1: they're a mess right now. They don't know how to respond. Yesterday, 413 00:23:22,160 --> 00:23:26,000 Speaker 1: Trump talks about immigration reform, he talks about spending more 414 00:23:26,040 --> 00:23:29,520 Speaker 1: money on infrastructure. So where did the Democrats find an opening? 415 00:23:29,760 --> 00:23:35,200 Speaker 1: Maybe Obamacare, but the Democrats are in the wilderness right now. Well, yeah, 416 00:23:35,280 --> 00:23:36,879 Speaker 1: and the way we saw that last night, with a 417 00:23:36,960 --> 00:23:40,080 Speaker 1: lack of applause, I mean that was their their protest. 418 00:23:40,200 --> 00:23:42,080 Speaker 1: Mr Velia has always thank you so much. Here's with 419 00:23:42,119 --> 00:23:45,920 Speaker 1: the Horizon Investments, Greg Delier with always interesting perspective, really 420 00:23:45,960 --> 00:24:01,640 Speaker 1: dovetailing it back into a financial investment as well. David 421 00:24:01,680 --> 00:24:03,719 Speaker 1: Gurrett and Tom Keen and New York with Bloomberg Surveillance. 422 00:24:03,760 --> 00:24:05,760 Speaker 1: We continue to talk about that speech that Donald Trump 423 00:24:05,760 --> 00:24:08,400 Speaker 1: gave last night before a joint session of Congress. Steve 424 00:24:08,440 --> 00:24:11,080 Speaker 1: Ranner joins us now Chairman of Will Advisories, and let's 425 00:24:11,119 --> 00:24:12,760 Speaker 1: start with the tone. We've been talking a lot about 426 00:24:12,760 --> 00:24:14,960 Speaker 1: the tone of this speech last night, how different it 427 00:24:15,000 --> 00:24:17,280 Speaker 1: was from what we've heard from President Trump during his 428 00:24:17,320 --> 00:24:19,080 Speaker 1: first few weeks in office, and indeed what we heard 429 00:24:19,080 --> 00:24:22,439 Speaker 1: from Canada Trump on the campaign trail. Did that change 430 00:24:22,480 --> 00:24:25,359 Speaker 1: in tone? Steve obscure the fact that we didn't get 431 00:24:25,359 --> 00:24:28,160 Speaker 1: a lot of the specifics that investors were hoping for yesterday. 432 00:24:28,880 --> 00:24:31,480 Speaker 1: We certainly did get the change in tone. I think 433 00:24:31,520 --> 00:24:34,240 Speaker 1: we've got the same exact list of specifics more or 434 00:24:34,320 --> 00:24:37,359 Speaker 1: less than we've seen before, with at least one exception, 435 00:24:37,400 --> 00:24:40,320 Speaker 1: I think on healthcare, where it really wasn't clear whether 436 00:24:40,320 --> 00:24:42,359 Speaker 1: he was with Paul Ryan or whether he was still 437 00:24:42,359 --> 00:24:44,600 Speaker 1: thinking thinking about some of his statements about trying to 438 00:24:44,640 --> 00:24:46,560 Speaker 1: keep everybody who has a plan on a plan all 439 00:24:46,600 --> 00:24:48,840 Speaker 1: that kind of stuff. He seems so clearly come down 440 00:24:48,880 --> 00:24:51,480 Speaker 1: on the Paul Ryan's side. I honestly never thought we 441 00:24:51,520 --> 00:24:54,200 Speaker 1: would get much more than than that. In specifics, I 442 00:24:54,760 --> 00:24:57,240 Speaker 1: think he just doesn't have his policy teams in place. 443 00:24:57,280 --> 00:25:00,440 Speaker 1: He doesn't have his policies ready, so he's not in 444 00:25:00,440 --> 00:25:02,720 Speaker 1: a position to layout a tax plan. For example, he 445 00:25:02,760 --> 00:25:06,280 Speaker 1: talked about a trillion dollars in infrastructure spending, invoked at 446 00:25:06,320 --> 00:25:08,840 Speaker 1: President Eisenhower. How useful is that parallel there? You want 447 00:25:08,840 --> 00:25:11,080 Speaker 1: to bring up Eisenhower because of the highway system and 448 00:25:11,119 --> 00:25:13,480 Speaker 1: all of that is what he's proposing, something that is 449 00:25:13,520 --> 00:25:16,560 Speaker 1: in fact an analog to the system that Dwight Eisenhower created. Well, 450 00:25:16,560 --> 00:25:20,160 Speaker 1: I got Eisenhower and Lincoln into this, into the speech. Um, 451 00:25:21,240 --> 00:25:23,919 Speaker 1: the infrastructure is one place where he has had a 452 00:25:23,920 --> 00:25:25,879 Speaker 1: specific plan. It doesn't make a lot of sense to 453 00:25:25,920 --> 00:25:29,840 Speaker 1: many people. It provides two tax credits to private the 454 00:25:29,840 --> 00:25:32,520 Speaker 1: private sector to go out and build the projects, which 455 00:25:32,840 --> 00:25:35,480 Speaker 1: I don't know anyone who who actually thinks that's the 456 00:25:35,560 --> 00:25:38,240 Speaker 1: best way to go about this. So we'll have to 457 00:25:38,240 --> 00:25:40,320 Speaker 1: wait and see. And I think you've already heard reaction. 458 00:25:40,359 --> 00:25:42,360 Speaker 1: I think I heard on bloomg Radio this morning that 459 00:25:42,560 --> 00:25:45,280 Speaker 1: or last night after the speech from the deficit hawks 460 00:25:45,320 --> 00:25:47,520 Speaker 1: that they're not so happy about spending a trillion dollars 461 00:25:47,560 --> 00:25:49,239 Speaker 1: without finding way to pay for it. One of the 462 00:25:49,320 --> 00:25:53,760 Speaker 1: charms of one S. Rattner folks, is he has discovered Twitter, 463 00:25:54,600 --> 00:25:58,760 Speaker 1: and Steve Rattner is very good at putting out blathers, 464 00:25:58,800 --> 00:26:03,960 Speaker 1: stopping charts of clarity and brutality. You did too yesterday 465 00:26:04,000 --> 00:26:07,199 Speaker 1: on the Affordable Care Act. Let's cut to the chase. 466 00:26:07,640 --> 00:26:10,359 Speaker 1: The Affordable Care Act is about helping a lot of 467 00:26:10,440 --> 00:26:15,840 Speaker 1: poor people get medical insurance. What can be a constructive 468 00:26:15,920 --> 00:26:19,879 Speaker 1: Republican solution to take the advantages of a c A 469 00:26:20,520 --> 00:26:25,120 Speaker 1: and dovetail it into the richest fury over subsidizing the poor? 470 00:26:25,440 --> 00:26:27,919 Speaker 1: How do they get out of that that mess that 471 00:26:28,040 --> 00:26:31,560 Speaker 1: you brilliantly showed in your church yesterday, and and just 472 00:26:31,680 --> 00:26:34,160 Speaker 1: to and just to return the compliment, you have very 473 00:26:34,280 --> 00:26:38,600 Speaker 1: articulately explained the essence of Obamacare, which many people feel intuitively, 474 00:26:39,000 --> 00:26:41,240 Speaker 1: which is why they don't like it, but but don't 475 00:26:41,280 --> 00:26:44,800 Speaker 1: understand exactly what's happening. It is a program to get 476 00:26:44,840 --> 00:26:49,160 Speaker 1: a lot of less well off Americans three million onto it. 477 00:26:49,400 --> 00:26:52,119 Speaker 1: Remember that the basic idea of a mandate was a 478 00:26:52,119 --> 00:26:56,160 Speaker 1: Republican idea. It was their antidote to the single payer idea. 479 00:26:56,480 --> 00:26:59,840 Speaker 1: So in a way, Obamacare is is a Republican idea. 480 00:27:00,000 --> 00:27:02,119 Speaker 1: But now I think Governor Romney would say that, and 481 00:27:02,280 --> 00:27:05,159 Speaker 1: Governor Romney as well. It was actually pretty day to 482 00:27:05,200 --> 00:27:08,359 Speaker 1: Governor Romney, but he adopted it in Massachusetts. What's what's 483 00:27:08,400 --> 00:27:14,040 Speaker 1: the outcome here for the Republicans? The outcome, I think 484 00:27:14,080 --> 00:27:18,040 Speaker 1: the outcome is a much skinnier healthcare program. You limit 485 00:27:18,040 --> 00:27:20,520 Speaker 1: the amount of Medicaid money to the states, You take 486 00:27:20,560 --> 00:27:23,080 Speaker 1: away the individual mandate, you take away the limits on 487 00:27:23,119 --> 00:27:24,639 Speaker 1: what kind of plan you have, so you can go 488 00:27:24,720 --> 00:27:28,080 Speaker 1: back to these very the so called many plans, uh, 489 00:27:28,119 --> 00:27:31,760 Speaker 1: that people got before Obamacare. And so you somehow keep 490 00:27:32,240 --> 00:27:35,280 Speaker 1: maybe almost as many Americans on health insurance and you 491 00:27:35,359 --> 00:27:38,760 Speaker 1: declare victory because it also cost the government a lot less. 492 00:27:38,760 --> 00:27:41,399 Speaker 1: But meanwhile those people have much weaker plans. I mean, 493 00:27:41,480 --> 00:27:45,919 Speaker 1: David wouldn't cover my boton That's what's most There's so 494 00:27:45,960 --> 00:27:49,200 Speaker 1: much hoot and hollerand about a national marketplace. Steve to 495 00:27:49,280 --> 00:27:52,320 Speaker 1: the Prison last night talked about how we could see 496 00:27:52,320 --> 00:27:58,520 Speaker 1: ourselves buying insurance acrom states like you into Yeah, this 497 00:27:58,600 --> 00:28:02,240 Speaker 1: is you know, the this is a charade because what 498 00:28:02,400 --> 00:28:05,520 Speaker 1: this does would basically, uh create a race, a race 499 00:28:05,560 --> 00:28:08,600 Speaker 1: to the bottom among states to have the plans offered 500 00:28:08,600 --> 00:28:10,399 Speaker 1: in their states so they could have more jobs and 501 00:28:10,560 --> 00:28:13,359 Speaker 1: insurance comes. It's very much like the corporate law game 502 00:28:13,359 --> 00:28:15,480 Speaker 1: where states game, you know, try to try to have 503 00:28:15,480 --> 00:28:17,840 Speaker 1: the most favorable corporate law environment to get more companies 504 00:28:17,840 --> 00:28:20,680 Speaker 1: for wor right there, and so you lose a lot 505 00:28:20,720 --> 00:28:24,040 Speaker 1: of the really tough regulatory oversight that the states now 506 00:28:24,080 --> 00:28:26,720 Speaker 1: provide to insurance plans within their own state when they're 507 00:28:26,760 --> 00:28:29,480 Speaker 1: trying to keep their insurers from leaving their state and 508 00:28:29,520 --> 00:28:31,360 Speaker 1: going to some other states that's off from a better deal. 509 00:28:31,560 --> 00:28:35,200 Speaker 1: Steve your worst nightmare. Donald Trump calls up and says, Steve, 510 00:28:35,240 --> 00:28:38,840 Speaker 1: can you be the healthcares are? What's your what's your 511 00:28:38,920 --> 00:28:45,800 Speaker 1: day one task in Washington? Well, uh, quit right there. 512 00:28:46,760 --> 00:28:51,240 Speaker 1: Obamacare needs some fixing. Everybody agrees that. Ever, there's never 513 00:28:51,280 --> 00:28:54,280 Speaker 1: been a major and never been a major benefits program 514 00:28:54,360 --> 00:28:56,320 Speaker 1: like this put in place without then having to tweak it. 515 00:28:56,560 --> 00:28:58,600 Speaker 1: The problem is, for the last six years Obama could 516 00:28:58,640 --> 00:29:01,560 Speaker 1: not get anything done. So, for example, the putting a 517 00:29:01,600 --> 00:29:03,760 Speaker 1: limit of three to one on the prices that could 518 00:29:03,800 --> 00:29:06,800 Speaker 1: be charged the oldest Americans and the youngest Americans was 519 00:29:06,840 --> 00:29:09,080 Speaker 1: a mistake. It was well intentioned, but you need a 520 00:29:09,080 --> 00:29:12,000 Speaker 1: wider band. So the insurance for lower people's last expensive 521 00:29:12,280 --> 00:29:15,440 Speaker 1: the man. The mandate penalties are too low. You need 522 00:29:15,480 --> 00:29:18,640 Speaker 1: to have serious penalties for people not signing up to 523 00:29:18,680 --> 00:29:21,680 Speaker 1: get those young people onto the exchanges. So there are 524 00:29:21,720 --> 00:29:24,560 Speaker 1: a bunch of fixes you can do that would actually 525 00:29:24,600 --> 00:29:27,400 Speaker 1: make it work better. But that is obviously not at 526 00:29:27,400 --> 00:29:29,320 Speaker 1: all the direction that we're going to be going. I 527 00:29:29,360 --> 00:29:31,320 Speaker 1: want to thank our great team that that brings us 528 00:29:31,360 --> 00:29:33,920 Speaker 1: our guest folks, David Gren, I never lift the phone. 529 00:29:34,160 --> 00:29:36,960 Speaker 1: I mean maybe for Rata we would, but our team 530 00:29:37,040 --> 00:29:38,800 Speaker 1: we were We had and the head of New York 531 00:29:38,800 --> 00:29:42,640 Speaker 1: Presbyterian the other day, a cardiologist who was just brilliant 532 00:29:42,680 --> 00:29:45,160 Speaker 1: on this from the medical side. And we heard from 533 00:29:45,200 --> 00:29:48,200 Speaker 1: Stephen Ratner today. We're gonna continue with Mr Ratner here 534 00:29:48,280 --> 00:29:51,520 Speaker 1: on the President's speech. We should point out he handles 535 00:29:51,560 --> 00:29:55,160 Speaker 1: investments for the principal owner of Bloomberg LP. From time 536 00:29:55,200 --> 00:29:59,080 Speaker 1: to time he does that with Willowd Advisors. Uh. Stephen Ratner, 537 00:29:59,200 --> 00:30:03,640 Speaker 1: I look at the charts in the gradient of our 538 00:30:03,640 --> 00:30:07,160 Speaker 1: fiscal policy and everybody looks to Y axis. I would 539 00:30:07,160 --> 00:30:10,200 Speaker 1: suggest the X axis is important. And then that gets 540 00:30:10,240 --> 00:30:13,000 Speaker 1: us to the win of this the political process, in 541 00:30:13,040 --> 00:30:16,840 Speaker 1: the win of tax reform, the win of deregulation, the 542 00:30:16,880 --> 00:30:19,720 Speaker 1: win of all the enthusiasm of the president. Is the 543 00:30:19,720 --> 00:30:22,200 Speaker 1: when going to be more delayed. I think the win 544 00:30:22,360 --> 00:30:24,840 Speaker 1: is gonna be much more challenging than maybe people thinking. 545 00:30:24,880 --> 00:30:26,960 Speaker 1: And give you a couple of examples. First of all, 546 00:30:27,280 --> 00:30:29,880 Speaker 1: you've got the border tax issue, which is going to 547 00:30:30,000 --> 00:30:33,320 Speaker 1: face significant opposition. It's a real issue. I mean, everybody 548 00:30:33,320 --> 00:30:34,920 Speaker 1: I talked to you can barely get done. What do 549 00:30:34,960 --> 00:30:37,640 Speaker 1: you think I think that I think it's probability of 550 00:30:37,680 --> 00:30:39,920 Speaker 1: getting done or like low single digits. I think they're 551 00:30:40,240 --> 00:30:43,200 Speaker 1: almost infinitesimal. Now, the problem is without the revenues from 552 00:30:43,200 --> 00:30:45,880 Speaker 1: the border tax, all the rest of tax reform gets 553 00:30:45,920 --> 00:30:48,800 Speaker 1: much more complicated because you then have the deficit hawks. 554 00:30:49,080 --> 00:30:51,840 Speaker 1: You have certainly the dynamic scoring crowd on one side, 555 00:30:51,840 --> 00:30:54,239 Speaker 1: but you've got deficit hawks on the other side. Uh 556 00:30:54,280 --> 00:30:55,880 Speaker 1: and you heard some of them, as I said earlier 557 00:30:55,880 --> 00:30:58,160 Speaker 1: on Bloomberg Radio last night, who are not going to 558 00:30:58,440 --> 00:31:01,280 Speaker 1: allow on a lot of paid for tax cuts. So 559 00:31:01,320 --> 00:31:04,200 Speaker 1: that is a huge problem on the tax side on 560 00:31:04,240 --> 00:31:08,440 Speaker 1: the Obamacare side. To replace Obamacare with something that's really 561 00:31:08,480 --> 00:31:10,920 Speaker 1: substant you need sixty votes in the Senate. You can't 562 00:31:10,920 --> 00:31:14,600 Speaker 1: do it all through reconciliation because it's not all budget 563 00:31:14,600 --> 00:31:18,320 Speaker 1: and tax related, and obviously that means Democrats. That's not 564 00:31:18,360 --> 00:31:21,440 Speaker 1: going to happen, notwithstanding all of Trump's efforts last night 565 00:31:21,480 --> 00:31:24,240 Speaker 1: to reach out to Democrats. Uh So, I think you're 566 00:31:24,240 --> 00:31:27,640 Speaker 1: looking at two years of legislative hand to hand combat 567 00:31:28,080 --> 00:31:30,720 Speaker 1: and then maybe something comes out the other side. Maybe 568 00:31:30,720 --> 00:31:34,280 Speaker 1: it doesn't. How does the rejiggering of regulation happen? Last night? 569 00:31:34,280 --> 00:31:37,000 Speaker 1: To President I say there'll be a Deregulation task Force 570 00:31:37,040 --> 00:31:39,520 Speaker 1: inside every fiddle agency. Made me wonder if there's gonna 571 00:31:39,520 --> 00:31:42,280 Speaker 1: be one of the cf PBM on among other places here. 572 00:31:42,280 --> 00:31:45,239 Speaker 1: But is this gonna happen away from the US capital? Yeah, well, 573 00:31:45,240 --> 00:31:47,880 Speaker 1: a lot of the regulatory side. There's just like just 574 00:31:47,920 --> 00:31:50,440 Speaker 1: the way everyone was attacking Obama for the last six 575 00:31:50,520 --> 00:31:54,000 Speaker 1: years for using executive orders and regulation to get stuff 576 00:31:54,000 --> 00:31:56,480 Speaker 1: done when Congress wouldn't act. Now it's going to be 577 00:31:56,520 --> 00:31:59,480 Speaker 1: exactly the opposite. The President is going to use the 578 00:31:59,520 --> 00:32:03,720 Speaker 1: authority he decried uh to take away regulations to reregulate 579 00:32:03,800 --> 00:32:06,200 Speaker 1: to go through a process their rolemaking processes. There are 580 00:32:06,320 --> 00:32:08,880 Speaker 1: limits based on what's in legislation as to what he 581 00:32:08,920 --> 00:32:11,520 Speaker 1: can do, but there's a lot of mean For example, 582 00:32:11,720 --> 00:32:13,560 Speaker 1: they have already told the I R. S not to 583 00:32:13,680 --> 00:32:17,080 Speaker 1: enforce the individual mandate as part of Obamacare. They can 584 00:32:17,120 --> 00:32:19,600 Speaker 1: just go do that. And so you're gonna see a 585 00:32:19,600 --> 00:32:21,640 Speaker 1: lot of that kind of stuff happening, and frankly, some 586 00:32:21,680 --> 00:32:23,160 Speaker 1: of it will be good, some of it may go 587 00:32:23,240 --> 00:32:26,200 Speaker 1: too far. I rolled off the surveillance cot this morning 588 00:32:26,200 --> 00:32:28,240 Speaker 1: after doing our coverage the last night on Bloomgradiel Boom 589 00:32:28,240 --> 00:32:30,840 Speaker 1: Retelligent picked up The New York Times a great lead 590 00:32:30,880 --> 00:32:33,560 Speaker 1: here by Peter Baker and Maggie Haberman. The speech was written, 591 00:32:33,560 --> 00:32:35,840 Speaker 1: the rollout strategy was said, and then President Trump began 592 00:32:35,880 --> 00:32:38,040 Speaker 1: talking and the plan went out the window. Unless that 593 00:32:38,120 --> 00:32:41,440 Speaker 1: was the plan all along. They're talking about immigration policy 594 00:32:41,520 --> 00:32:42,760 Speaker 1: or what do you make of the about face we 595 00:32:42,800 --> 00:32:44,600 Speaker 1: heard from the President last night in that speech, the 596 00:32:44,880 --> 00:32:48,800 Speaker 1: seeming openness that's some sort of immigration reform. I think 597 00:32:48,800 --> 00:32:51,600 Speaker 1: we all know that the President deep down is not 598 00:32:51,800 --> 00:32:55,600 Speaker 1: as i'll say hard right as as some of his 599 00:32:55,720 --> 00:32:58,960 Speaker 1: policies that he's been espousing would suggest he grew up, 600 00:32:59,000 --> 00:33:00,880 Speaker 1: you know, he grew up in New York, the ultimate 601 00:33:00,880 --> 00:33:04,880 Speaker 1: melting pot, the ultimate diversity, a center of diversity, and 602 00:33:04,920 --> 00:33:06,680 Speaker 1: so I do think there is some element of that 603 00:33:06,760 --> 00:33:09,600 Speaker 1: in him, and I think I think it's quite possible 604 00:33:09,600 --> 00:33:11,840 Speaker 1: you'll see him soften on some of those kinds of issues, 605 00:33:11,880 --> 00:33:14,680 Speaker 1: like the so called dreamers, if we can switch to 606 00:33:14,720 --> 00:33:18,080 Speaker 1: the investment world, Uh, Steve, one of the great ideas 607 00:33:19,280 --> 00:33:23,240 Speaker 1: is inflation is rising, and even if it's a gradual rise, 608 00:33:23,280 --> 00:33:26,400 Speaker 1: as John Sylvia Wells Fargo said yesterday, without the inflame, 609 00:33:26,720 --> 00:33:32,360 Speaker 1: inflammatory comments, the media that cuts into real wages, real return, 610 00:33:32,760 --> 00:33:36,479 Speaker 1: real yields. Is this a fear that inflation will grind 611 00:33:36,720 --> 00:33:42,640 Speaker 1: higher and nominal yields won't rise as quickly. I don't 612 00:33:42,680 --> 00:33:45,720 Speaker 1: think I've heard that Espouse, and obviously we meet every 613 00:33:45,800 --> 00:33:48,480 Speaker 1: day with our investment managers, with companies and so on. 614 00:33:49,040 --> 00:33:52,240 Speaker 1: I don't hear a lot of that fear yet. Uh, 615 00:33:53,000 --> 00:33:55,680 Speaker 1: inflation has been so muted, and indeed, we've been trying 616 00:33:55,680 --> 00:33:58,760 Speaker 1: to get inflation up for so long that I don't 617 00:33:58,960 --> 00:34:01,080 Speaker 1: I I just know don't. I can't say I hear 618 00:34:01,120 --> 00:34:04,680 Speaker 1: a lot of the phenomenal will outpace the inflation rise, 619 00:34:05,200 --> 00:34:08,440 Speaker 1: it will get some real return, whether it's in finance 620 00:34:08,520 --> 00:34:11,239 Speaker 1: or investment. Well, remember, one thing that is a bit 621 00:34:11,280 --> 00:34:13,759 Speaker 1: of a year in a yang is that many of 622 00:34:13,840 --> 00:34:16,120 Speaker 1: us have been feeling that real wages needed to go 623 00:34:16,239 --> 00:34:18,640 Speaker 1: up simply because they've been depressed for so long, and 624 00:34:18,719 --> 00:34:22,680 Speaker 1: part of you know, the political zeit geys every direction, Uh, 625 00:34:22,719 --> 00:34:26,000 Speaker 1: you want people to be doing better. That obviously puts 626 00:34:26,080 --> 00:34:28,759 Speaker 1: pressure on costs for companies because if they're paying higher 627 00:34:28,840 --> 00:34:32,040 Speaker 1: real wages than by definition, this impressure on their on 628 00:34:32,080 --> 00:34:34,719 Speaker 1: their profit margins. So I think you will see some 629 00:34:34,800 --> 00:34:37,400 Speaker 1: of that kind of stuff start to happen. But I 630 00:34:37,800 --> 00:34:40,120 Speaker 1: do think, and I think President Trump would agree with this, 631 00:34:40,520 --> 00:34:44,279 Speaker 1: that unless you get real wages up then this then 632 00:34:44,320 --> 00:34:47,759 Speaker 1: we're gonna have the same turmoil, political turmoil, and unhappiness 633 00:34:47,840 --> 00:34:49,879 Speaker 1: and all the other social problems that we've been talking 634 00:34:49,880 --> 00:34:51,800 Speaker 1: about for the last two years. If I were to 635 00:34:51,880 --> 00:34:54,920 Speaker 1: draw a Venn diagram of tax reform here, I've got 636 00:34:54,960 --> 00:34:58,160 Speaker 1: the Ryan Brady plan in one circle, and I've got 637 00:34:58,160 --> 00:34:59,680 Speaker 1: what Gary kne is working on the White House and 638 00:34:59,719 --> 00:35:01,879 Speaker 1: the other. How much crossover is there? In other words, 639 00:35:01,920 --> 00:35:04,439 Speaker 1: as we go forward here on the issue of tax reform, 640 00:35:04,440 --> 00:35:07,040 Speaker 1: how much unanimity is there between the executive and legislative branches. 641 00:35:07,440 --> 00:35:09,120 Speaker 1: If you line up, if you line up the tax 642 00:35:09,160 --> 00:35:11,600 Speaker 1: pan plan that Trump used during the campaign, which I 643 00:35:11,640 --> 00:35:14,600 Speaker 1: know may not be operative anymore, and what Ryan said, 644 00:35:14,800 --> 00:35:17,200 Speaker 1: there's a lot of similarity on the individual side. There 645 00:35:17,200 --> 00:35:20,640 Speaker 1: are some differences over things like charitable contributions and deductibility 646 00:35:20,640 --> 00:35:22,920 Speaker 1: and whatever, but the tax rates are very, very similar. 647 00:35:23,719 --> 00:35:26,840 Speaker 1: Trump had a much more generous corporate tax plan actually 648 00:35:26,880 --> 00:35:29,480 Speaker 1: than Ryan did, although it did not include the border 649 00:35:29,480 --> 00:35:33,520 Speaker 1: adjustment tax. So I think there's a fairly significant level 650 00:35:33,680 --> 00:35:35,640 Speaker 1: of of overlap. I think the hard part is going 651 00:35:35,680 --> 00:35:38,160 Speaker 1: to be getting this stuff done. How do you is 652 00:35:38,239 --> 00:35:44,080 Speaker 1: former cars are synthesize well, actually, this is a scary thought. 653 00:35:44,080 --> 00:35:48,080 Speaker 1: Steve Rattner's motorcycles are. But there's the President last night 654 00:35:48,120 --> 00:35:53,160 Speaker 1: talking Harley Davidson and all the icon American, iconic Midwest 655 00:35:53,239 --> 00:35:58,360 Speaker 1: manufacturing ethos of it. How do we jump start Midwest manufacturing? 656 00:35:58,640 --> 00:36:00,960 Speaker 1: A strong dollar is not going to what we under 657 00:36:00,960 --> 00:36:04,520 Speaker 1: stand that, But what's the Ratiner prescription so that they're 658 00:36:04,520 --> 00:36:09,120 Speaker 1: more Harley Davidson's the President mentioned to be perfectly blunt. 659 00:36:09,160 --> 00:36:13,120 Speaker 1: The Ratiner prescription is to be realistic about what can 660 00:36:13,160 --> 00:36:16,520 Speaker 1: be achieved. We are not going to bring back millions 661 00:36:16,520 --> 00:36:19,439 Speaker 1: of manufacturing jobs to this country. And if we did, 662 00:36:19,520 --> 00:36:21,600 Speaker 1: the only way we would do it would be at 663 00:36:21,719 --> 00:36:25,080 Speaker 1: very low wages to make them competitive. And if you ever, 664 00:36:25,200 --> 00:36:27,600 Speaker 1: if you ever see a company announced they're bringing jobs back, 665 00:36:27,680 --> 00:36:29,560 Speaker 1: I will bet you a lot of money they're coming 666 00:36:29,600 --> 00:36:33,080 Speaker 1: back at wages well below the historic high manufact So 667 00:36:33,080 --> 00:36:35,719 Speaker 1: when the President list saw those companies last night, you're 668 00:36:35,760 --> 00:36:38,160 Speaker 1: not you're not well. Every one of those companies has 669 00:36:38,200 --> 00:36:40,520 Speaker 1: publicly said that they were going to do that anyway 670 00:36:41,280 --> 00:36:43,480 Speaker 1: with the President, and they're doing it for different reasons. 671 00:36:43,520 --> 00:36:47,920 Speaker 1: For example, you can't make small cars officially in this country, 672 00:36:47,920 --> 00:36:49,879 Speaker 1: so Ford was going to make them in Mexico. Now 673 00:36:49,880 --> 00:36:51,480 Speaker 1: they're not going to make them at all. So they're 674 00:36:51,480 --> 00:36:53,520 Speaker 1: gonna do some other stuff back here. And you can 675 00:36:53,600 --> 00:36:55,920 Speaker 1: go through case by case. This was all part of 676 00:36:55,920 --> 00:36:58,440 Speaker 1: their plans, and again they generally come with lower wages 677 00:36:58,719 --> 00:37:01,080 Speaker 1: and different deals with the US if there are unions 678 00:37:01,080 --> 00:37:03,680 Speaker 1: at all, I think we have to think more broadly 679 00:37:03,680 --> 00:37:06,160 Speaker 1: about how to create jobs in this country and be 680 00:37:06,239 --> 00:37:09,240 Speaker 1: more creative than simply say we're gonna bring back millions 681 00:37:09,239 --> 00:37:12,160 Speaker 1: of autoworker jobs. It's not happening. Has that run its course. 682 00:37:12,200 --> 00:37:14,200 Speaker 1: So we're gonna hear this throughout the next four years. 683 00:37:14,200 --> 00:37:17,480 Speaker 1: We're gonna have We're gonna hear this every day of 684 00:37:17,600 --> 00:37:21,040 Speaker 1: the next four years. Uh. Look, the one thing as 685 00:37:21,080 --> 00:37:23,560 Speaker 1: a business guy that I kind of like is that 686 00:37:23,719 --> 00:37:27,440 Speaker 1: He's had more meetings with businessmen in his five weeks 687 00:37:27,719 --> 00:37:30,439 Speaker 1: and Obama probably had in four years. And I'm glad 688 00:37:30,480 --> 00:37:32,640 Speaker 1: he's talking to business men because I think business does 689 00:37:32,719 --> 00:37:36,800 Speaker 1: have something to offer. Here. Very beneficial Stephen Ratner Willow Advisers, 690 00:37:36,800 --> 00:37:38,279 Speaker 1: thank you so much. Of of of course, folks, you know 691 00:37:38,360 --> 00:37:41,520 Speaker 1: him from his public service to the auto industry a 692 00:37:41,600 --> 00:37:53,400 Speaker 1: few years ago. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. 693 00:37:53,760 --> 00:37:58,880 Speaker 1: Subscribe and listen to interviews on iTunes, SoundCloud, or whichever 694 00:37:59,000 --> 00:38:02,680 Speaker 1: podcast platform worm you prefer. I'm out on Twitter at 695 00:38:02,800 --> 00:38:07,080 Speaker 1: Tom Keene. David Gura is at David Gura. Before the podcast, 696 00:38:07,239 --> 00:38:23,480 Speaker 1: you can always catch us worldwide. I'm Bloomberg Radio, brought 697 00:38:23,520 --> 00:38:27,160 Speaker 1: you by Bank of America Mary Lynch, dedicated to bringing 698 00:38:27,160 --> 00:38:30,880 Speaker 1: our clients insights and solutions to meet the challenges of 699 00:38:30,920 --> 00:38:35,120 Speaker 1: a transforming world. That's the power of global connections. Mary 700 00:38:35,200 --> 00:38:39,880 Speaker 1: Lynch Pierce Feeder and Smith Incorporated, Member s i p C,