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Speaker 1: Let's go places. There's a core idea in science that
Speaker 1: experiments should be repeatable.
Speaker 4: If you do an experiment the same way different times,
Speaker 4: you should get the same result.
Speaker 1: However, there is a loophole.
Speaker 4: There's a loophole in science.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and that loophole opens a window into everything we
Speaker 1: think is true about reality in the universe and everything.
Speaker 4: Welcome to Daniel and Jorge Explain the Universe.
Speaker 1: In which we try to take the entire universe and
Speaker 1: break it into bite sized pieces so you can enjoy
Speaker 1: them with your afternoon coffee.
Speaker 4: I'm more I'm a cartoonist. I draw comics online.
Speaker 1: And I'm Daniel. I'm a particle physicist. I spend my
Speaker 1: days smashing protons together at the large Hadron colliders to
Speaker 1: try to reveal the secrets of the universe, mostly so
Speaker 1: that I can tell them to you in this podcast.
Speaker 4: Basically, only one of us is qualified to be explaining
Speaker 4: things to you on this podcast.
Speaker 1: That would be the cartoonist. Yeah, physicists are not qualified
Speaker 1: usually to be explainers. Mostly we just try to solve
Speaker 1: the mysteries of the universe. We don't try to tell
Speaker 1: anybody about them, right.
Speaker 4: Mostly physicists just need explaining, that's right.
Speaker 1: That's where the cartoons come in, right.
Speaker 4: Yeah, and spouses also, spouses of physicists probably have to
Speaker 4: do a lot of explaining.
Speaker 1: You've got some explaining to do, exactly. Yeah. So we're
Speaker 1: here to talk to you about big questions about the universe.
Speaker 1: And today's question is a really deep and basic question,
Speaker 1: and it's about the very nature of reality. What is it?
Speaker 1: What are we going to talk about today?
Speaker 4: Is the universe random or is it just chaotic? And
Speaker 4: what's the difference?
Speaker 1: Or is it run by some super being and we're
Speaker 1: actually just in their simulation. But that's other episode.
Speaker 4: That's a whole other podcast.
Speaker 1: Right today, just the two sinister options, random or chaotic,
Speaker 1: you might feel like, ooh, neither of those sound very cozy.
Speaker 1: I don't want to live in either of those universes.
Speaker 4: Well, the question basically breaks down to is the universe predictable?
Speaker 4: Like can you predict what the universe is going to do?
Speaker 4: Or is it that nobody can predict what the universe
Speaker 4: is going to do?
Speaker 1: Right? And I think that's why it's an awesome question
Speaker 1: for science because for so many thousands and thousands of years,
Speaker 1: I think humans probably felt like the universe around them
Speaker 1: was totally unpredictable. I mean, they invented gods for this
Speaker 1: and for that to try to describe how the universe
Speaker 1: was out of their control and doing things that didn't
Speaker 1: make sense, as if it had some you know, will
Speaker 1: and agency, right, Yeah, and then science comes along it
Speaker 1: says actually there are rules and you can discover them,
Speaker 1: and slowly science starts to creep in this description of
Speaker 1: the universe that locks out this agency, this idea, this personality,
Speaker 1: and gives you the sense that maybe the universe follows
Speaker 1: these rules.
Speaker 4: Right. So we went out and as usual, you'll ask
Speaker 4: people on the street do you think the universe is
Speaker 4: random or chaotic?
Speaker 1: And here's what they had to say.
Speaker 5: That's gonna okay, that's a that's a thinker right there.
Speaker 5: I would say, surely random. With randomness comes chaos. You
Speaker 5: never know what will happen, but there's there's always a
Speaker 5: probability and a chance of things, of certain things happening.
Speaker 4: I'd like to say random.
Speaker 3: I'm religious, so I feel like everything happens for a reason,
Speaker 3: And yes it is random, but there's a purpose behind everything.
Speaker 4: I think it's a mixture of both. Like it's random,
Speaker 4: but it can appear chaotic because of how.
Speaker 6: Everything is truly chaotic, because like on a smaller level,
Speaker 6: everything is like moving really fast, but at like a
Speaker 6: bigger level, we don't see any of that.
Speaker 1: Wow, So would you think of those answers or him?
Speaker 4: I think they were all over the place. They were
Speaker 4: actually kind of random.
Speaker 1: Yeah, they're random and chaotic. I feel like I feel
Speaker 1: like people had no idea what I was asking them,
Speaker 1: you know, I.
Speaker 4: Feel like people just I feel like they had no
Speaker 4: idea what they were answering.
Speaker 1: Some of those people. I remember recording these interviews, and
Speaker 1: some of those people, as the words were coming out
Speaker 1: of their mouth, I felt like they surprised them as
Speaker 1: much as they did me. Like it was all over
Speaker 1: the place.
Speaker 4: Yeah, well, I feel like some people it's interesting. Some
Speaker 4: people related to that question to the other question, which
Speaker 4: is like does the universe have a purpose? Like do
Speaker 4: things happen for a reason? Or do they Is it
Speaker 4: just like a random role to die and nobody's really
Speaker 4: in charge? Like that's the question, right, Like is somebody
Speaker 4: in charge of the universe or is it impossible for
Speaker 4: anyone to kind of predict what it's going to do?
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think you're right. That does get at the
Speaker 1: heart of the question. You know what's going to happen
Speaker 1: in the universe and can we tell and can we
Speaker 1: influence it? Right? Is the universe sort of churning on
Speaker 1: without our ability to change this direction at all in
Speaker 1: some sort of way that's been determined since the dawn
Speaker 1: of time? Or can we nudget and in one way
Speaker 1: or the other, you know, make the calves win? Or
Speaker 1: can you if you jump up and down in front
Speaker 1: of your television enough whill the Warriors win another NBA championship?
Speaker 1: You know? Can you influence the world? I think that's
Speaker 1: a that's an interesting and deep question. Yeah, that's probably
Speaker 1: the one people were actually having in their mind.
Speaker 4: Yeah, so may let's go back in history. And I
Speaker 4: like how you think about this question a lot, Daniel,
Speaker 4: which is that you sort of start with early man,
Speaker 4: like the cave men and woman and women, early humans,
Speaker 4: we're really just kind of at the mercy of all
Speaker 4: the elements and all the animals out there and the weather,
Speaker 4: and so they to them, the universe was this crazy,
Speaker 4: random and chaotic place, right, Yeah.
Speaker 1: And it actually it touches on sort of my personal
Speaker 1: theory of consciousness, which is that we developed this awareness
Speaker 1: because we are looking out into the world for other
Speaker 1: people or other ideas. Are there intelligences and we have
Speaker 1: this hyperactive ability to see agency, to see intention in
Speaker 1: something that we don't understand, and we imagine that there
Speaker 1: must be a mind behind it. And so I think
Speaker 1: for a long time, people's view the world was that
Speaker 1: it was controlled by other greater minds. You know, what
Speaker 1: controls the lightning? Why do some people die of disease?
Speaker 1: All this stuff?
Speaker 4: And then as there must be like a consciousness that
Speaker 4: is shooting out these lightning bolts or making it rain,
Speaker 4: or you know, making the sun come out.
Speaker 1: Or killing my baby of some horrible disease. Right, like,
Speaker 1: there must be. It's hard to live in this world
Speaker 1: if you don't have the sense that there's somebody else
Speaker 1: in charge. Right there's a lot of suffering and a
Speaker 1: lot of pain, and a lot of unexplained events, and
Speaker 1: it's nice to think somebody else out there is taking
Speaker 1: care of it, or somebody's in charge of it.
Speaker 4: But there's a reason, right.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that there's a reason, that there's some design. It's
Speaker 1: not just random. But then as history progresses, as we
Speaker 1: were saying earlier, you know, science comes along, it says, well,
Speaker 1: there are seemed to be some rules, not just like
Speaker 1: that anything can happen. You can't have an Ostrich here
Speaker 1: and then all of a sudden the ostrich is gone.
Speaker 1: There are some rules that limit what can happen. If
Speaker 1: you know what's happening. Now there's a certain set of
Speaker 1: possibilities for what can happen in one second and two seconds?
Speaker 1: Then you know that's physics, right.
Speaker 4: Well, it started with like noticing patterns, right, Like lightning
Speaker 4: doesn't just come out of nowhere, It comes out when
Speaker 4: there's these dark clouds in the sky.
Speaker 1: Right, Yeah, absolutely absolutely, And people started noticing patterns and
Speaker 1: started putting those together and then asking themselves, can I
Speaker 1: use what I've learned in the past to predict the future?
Speaker 6: Right?
Speaker 1: Like if I have the same set of events that
Speaker 1: happened yesterday, I am I going to be able to
Speaker 1: tell what's going to happen next week if the same
Speaker 1: thing happens.
Speaker 6: Right.
Speaker 1: If I roll a ball down the hill yesterday and
Speaker 1: it goes up to a certain speed, will the same
Speaker 1: thing happen tomorrow?
Speaker 4: Right? Right? Or if I throw a ball in the
Speaker 4: air and I know which direction it's going and how
Speaker 4: fast it is going, can I predict where it's going
Speaker 4: to land exactly? If I build a catapult, can I
Speaker 4: basically aim it right?
Speaker 1: Exactly? And that's how military technology drove science even hundreds
Speaker 1: of years ago. Right, where do I shoot my cannon exactly?
Speaker 1: To get over that wall.
Speaker 4: Yeah, well, that's kind of where Newton came in, right,
Speaker 4: Isaac Newton, And that's why they say he kind of
Speaker 4: gave birth to science, right, or at least the scientific revolution.
Speaker 1: No, I think it was earlier than that. Newton came
Speaker 1: along well after folks like Galileo and Francis Bacon and
Speaker 1: those guys. They really were the first ones to do
Speaker 1: experiments and to say, let's see what the rules of
Speaker 1: the universe is following, and let's see if we can
Speaker 1: try to deduce them and use those to predict the
Speaker 1: outcome of future experiments. They really were the first ones
Speaker 1: to connect the idea of a scientific universe to the
Speaker 1: actual experiments they do to influence those ideas and to
Speaker 1: predict future results. And I think that's the key is
Speaker 1: that here we've developed a system science which can not
Speaker 1: only explain what we've seen before, but can predict the future.
Speaker 1: Now you are about to fire a cannon ball at
Speaker 1: your enemy. You want to know where is that ball
Speaker 1: going to fly? And it's incredible that physics can do that.
Speaker 1: It can literally predict the future if you know enough
Speaker 1: about the situation, right.
Speaker 4: Right, It's kind of like Google Maps. Now it can
Speaker 4: totally tell if you're going to be late to meeting
Speaker 4: or not, or to a podcast recording, like how long
Speaker 4: will take you to get home? They're like, oh, they're
Speaker 4: going to be late.
Speaker 1: It's not always a hard problem though. Jege for example,
Speaker 1: it says if person equals whohe, then late equals true
Speaker 1: every time.
Speaker 4: Every time.
Speaker 1: Data predictable data, and some of these things are simple,
Speaker 1: but some of these things are complicated, And it's incredible
Speaker 1: to witness as physics sort of builds confidence and science
Speaker 1: develops our ability to predict you know, chemical reactions and
Speaker 1: biological function, all sorts of things, and then it gives
Speaker 1: this creeping sense of is there anything that can escape science? Right?
Speaker 1: Can science predict everything? Like if you knew enough about
Speaker 1: the world, could you break it all down to cannonballs
Speaker 1: to predict where all those cannonballs are going to fly
Speaker 1: and then tell exactly what's going to happen?
Speaker 4: Yeah, And it's like kind of like if you know
Speaker 4: that force equals mass times acceleration, like Newton figured out,
Speaker 4: then you can predict things like cannon balls and catapults
Speaker 4: and and and you could possibly predict like how a
Speaker 4: room of particles move, right, Yeah, possibly you can extend
Speaker 4: that to can you predict how the whole world works? Yeah,
Speaker 4: what it's going to do and what people are going to.
Speaker 1: Do, extrapolate to the whole universe, right, Yeah, I mean,
Speaker 1: and that's the principle of determinism. It says, look, if
Speaker 1: things follow rules, and the future is dependent only two things,
Speaker 1: one the rules and two the things that are happening
Speaker 1: now the current state, right, given if you know exactly
Speaker 1: where things are, imagine the whole universe is just a
Speaker 1: bunch of tiny cannonballs, right, and you know the rules
Speaker 1: of those cannonballs, and you know the position and direction
Speaker 1: of motion of all those cannonballs. Then in principle, given
Speaker 1: a super powerful universe sized computer, you should be able
Speaker 1: to predict the future one to five ten seconds into
Speaker 1: the future, a thousand seconds into the future.
Speaker 4: Like every single molecule, atom, subatomic particle. You should be able.
Speaker 4: If it follows rules, you should be able to kind
Speaker 4: of track where it's going to go. Is should tell you,
Speaker 4: based on where things are now, what's going to happen exactly.
Speaker 4: It's kind of like this idea of a clock, right right,
Speaker 4: is the universe giant clock just kind of clicking along
Speaker 4: or is there some kind of magic inside of it
Speaker 4: that makes it unpredictable?
Speaker 1: Right exactly. And the idea of the universe just being
Speaker 1: a huge clock is both exciting and terrifying. Right. It's
Speaker 1: exciting because like, wow, can you imagine we could understand
Speaker 1: the universe that well, that we could predict the future,
Speaker 1: think about what we could do, right, But it's terrifying
Speaker 1: because it's sort of like you're trapped in this science
Speaker 1: cage where you have no influence over the world and
Speaker 1: everything you do and know and say, and that joke
Speaker 1: you're gonna make in that fart you're gonna let slip
Speaker 1: are all predictable, right, All those things are predictable. That's scary.
Speaker 1: It makes you feel like you are part of that
Speaker 1: watch and you're just clicking along because you're reacting to
Speaker 1: things around you in your initial conditions. And so that's terrifying.
Speaker 4: And I think we have kind of an innate sense
Speaker 4: of like rejecting this idea that we're trapped. Right. Everyone
Speaker 4: wants to feel like they have free will, Like everyone
Speaker 4: wants to know that they have a choice.
Speaker 1: Right, Well, I guess so my kids don't feel that way,
Speaker 1: you know, like, why did you hit your sister? Well,
Speaker 1: she hit me, you know, Like, well, so what you
Speaker 1: have no free will? Like you're completely determined by her behavior.
Speaker 1: I have that argument with my kids so many times.
Speaker 1: I'm always thinking about the philosophical echoes of that.
Speaker 4: My kids are always rebelling. They're like, we want free will.
Speaker 4: Don't tell us what to do?
Speaker 1: I see, but they want you to follow rules. They're like,
Speaker 1: you promised, daddy we could have ice cream, right, and
Speaker 1: so therefore you have to There's no more decision to
Speaker 1: be made.
Speaker 4: Kids are so unfair.
Speaker 1: They're philosophically inconsistent. I think it's really the problem with Yeah,
Speaker 1: the cute, But if they just read some more Nietzsche,
Speaker 1: you know, and some some carl and some Popper or whatever,
Speaker 1: they would be easier to be around.
Speaker 4: Yeah, forget those picture books. Let's introduce it.
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Speaker 1: When you pop a piece of cheese into your mouth
Speaker 1: or enjoy a rich spoonful of Greek yogurt, you're probably
Speaker 1: not thinking about the environmental impact of each and every bite.
Speaker 1: But the people in the dairy industry are US Dairy
Speaker 1: has set themselves some ambitious sustainability goals, including being greenhouse
Speaker 1: gas neutral by twenty to fifty. That's why they're working
Speaker 1: hard every day to find new ways to reduce waste,
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Speaker 1: dot com slash sustainability to learn more. I think there's
Speaker 1: something fascinating about the deterministic view of the universe, but
Speaker 1: probably people out there thinking, Okay, maybe in theory you
Speaker 1: could predict the whole universe, but in practice that's impossible.
Speaker 1: I mean, you don't have a universe sized computer to
Speaker 1: break the whole universe, and even to predict like you know,
Speaker 1: a person is a huge number of articles, and so
Speaker 1: to do that calculation just seems impractical.
Speaker 4: Right, Right, it's practically possible, but I think people revel
Speaker 4: just to the idea of it, right, Like, are my
Speaker 4: thoughts my thoughts or just something that I'm programmed and
Speaker 4: that I will inevitably have and do.
Speaker 1: Yeah, And that's a really deep question. And so we
Speaker 1: started out with prehistoric man feeling like the universe is
Speaker 1: full of random not random, but unexplained agency and intelligence
Speaker 1: all the way to life. Now, scientific physical determinism says, actually,
Speaker 1: the universe just clicks along like a watch, right, and
Speaker 1: there's no free will. So let's take one step back
Speaker 1: from that, and that's chaos. That says, well, maybe the
Speaker 1: universe is deterministic, sure, but that doesn't mean it's necessarily
Speaker 1: practical for you to predict it because the way things
Speaker 1: play out is really sensitive to exactly how things started.
Speaker 4: Well, I think some people who responded to their question.
Speaker 4: Maybe weren't sure about the difference, right, Like, what's the
Speaker 4: difference between something being chaotic and something being random?
Speaker 1: Right? And so let's drill into that. So let's take,
Speaker 1: for an example, the roll of a dice. Right, people
Speaker 1: think of rolling dice as random, but actually it's chaotic,
Speaker 1: meaning that it's hard to predict, but it is deterministic.
Speaker 4: Oh what do you mean?
Speaker 1: If you knew exactly how I threw the dice, like
Speaker 1: exactly the direction and the spin and all the molecules
Speaker 1: of the air, then you could treat the moll like
Speaker 1: the little cannon balls, little particles, and you could model
Speaker 1: how it rolls, and you could, in theory, predict exactlyactly
Speaker 1: how the dice rolled every time.
Speaker 4: Meaning like if if I'm seeing footage of you throwing
Speaker 4: to die, and like I pause the video just as
Speaker 4: to die leave your hands, then I could you know
Speaker 4: where they are. I know which direction they're going, how
Speaker 4: fast are going. I could run some kind of computer
Speaker 4: simulation to like follow the die and predict what they're
Speaker 4: going to do when they bounce off the table and
Speaker 4: roll around. I could potentially predict what the dye are
Speaker 4: going to show.
Speaker 1: That's right, because we're saying that the universe in that
Speaker 1: case is deterministic, and so you should be able to
Speaker 1: predict the future given enough information about the setup. Right now,
Speaker 1: that's a hard problem, and that's why we use dice, right,
Speaker 1: because it's really difficult, and nobody can practically, like bring
Speaker 1: a mini computer into Las Vegas and use that to
Speaker 1: predict who's going to win it Craps, right though in theory,
Speaker 1: In theory, you could if the universe was deterministic but
Speaker 1: very sensitive to exactly how somebody's rolling the dice. Right,
Speaker 1: when you throw the dice at Craps, if you flip
Speaker 1: it this way or that way, then it's going to
Speaker 1: bounce slightly differently, and how it's going to hit that
Speaker 1: the felt on the table. It's all very very sensitive,
Speaker 1: and a very small change in how you throw it
Speaker 1: can result in a totally different number. That's what we
Speaker 1: mean by chaos.
Speaker 4: It means that it's like the butterfly effect, right, like
Speaker 4: the idea that if you butterfly flaps is wing here,
Speaker 4: it's going to have a huge effect, maybe potentially on
Speaker 4: the weather and on the other side of the world. Right,
Speaker 4: It's like a very sensitive system.
Speaker 1: That's right. The weather is a great example because we
Speaker 1: understand all the processes of weather. I mean, it's hot air,
Speaker 1: it's cold air, it's water. We know that stuff. It's
Speaker 1: pretty simple chemistry. But all together, an entire planet is
Speaker 1: really difficult to describe because it's huge and it's really sensitive. Like,
Speaker 1: as you say, a butterfly flapping its wings in China
Speaker 1: could change the way this air flows, which could change
Speaker 1: the way that air flows, which bounces off this building,
Speaker 1: which turns into a rainstorm, which collides with this cloud
Speaker 1: and causes a hurricane. Right, it's not true that every
Speaker 1: time a butterfly flaps its wings you get a hurricane.
Speaker 4: But sometimes so weather is it's chaotic, but it's not random,
Speaker 4: is that what you're saying? That rand Like, if we
Speaker 4: could keep track of every single butterfly in the world
Speaker 4: flapping its wing, we would be able to predict the
Speaker 4: weather if we had a giant supercomputer the size of
Speaker 4: the Solar System. But since we don't, then weather it
Speaker 4: seems random, But actually it's chaotic.
Speaker 1: Exactly, And that's exactly what scientists are trying to do.
Speaker 1: They're building bigger and bigger and faster computers to try
Speaker 1: to simulate more and more of the Earth's atmosphere to
Speaker 1: get better and better predictions of weather. In fact, I
Speaker 1: think like all the top ten supercomputers in the world
Speaker 1: are devoted to that problem, like modeling the weather, because
Speaker 1: it's important. But you're exactly right, it's actually chaotic, meaning
Speaker 1: it's deterministic but really sensitive to exactly how it started.
Speaker 1: But it seems random because it's too difficult for us
Speaker 1: to calculate, and principle we should be able to, but
Speaker 1: we can't. Another example is flipping a coin. Right, based
Speaker 1: on how you flip the coin, you should be able
Speaker 1: to model how it spins through the air and how
Speaker 1: it bounces off air molecule and how it hits the
Speaker 1: ground and where it lands right, But it's a difficult problem.
Speaker 1: So we can use it to model randomness to say
Speaker 1: it's kind of like randomness. Really it's just chaotic though, But.
Speaker 4: Then if I flip the coin one hundred times, most
Speaker 4: likely half of those times will behead and half of
Speaker 4: those times will be tails. Right, So where does that
Speaker 4: fit into chaos theory? Like why is it predictable on
Speaker 4: a statistical basis?
Speaker 1: Okay, so that's fascinating that's an emergent phenomenon. Right. That says,
Speaker 1: if you understand the tiny little local laws of physics,
Speaker 1: like the laws of how the particles inside the coin move,
Speaker 1: you should be able to predict some larger effect. And
Speaker 1: it's true, there is a simple or description of that
Speaker 1: larger effect, right, if you understand how these things work.
Speaker 1: So physics works on these layers. Right, you can either
Speaker 1: understand it a very low layer and try to model
Speaker 1: it all the way up to a higher layer, or
Speaker 1: you can just try to get an understanding at a
Speaker 1: higher layer, just the same way. You could say, well,
Speaker 1: I can understand the way canniball flies by modeling all
Speaker 1: the particles inside of it, or you could just use
Speaker 1: F equals M, which treats the whole cannonball like one particle.
Speaker 1: That's just a question of at what layer you're modeling something. Right.
Speaker 4: Okay, so a coin is chaotic but not actually random.
Speaker 1: But not actually random yet if the universe is deterministic,
Speaker 1: then a coin is chaotic but not actually random.
Speaker 4: Yeah, okay, got it, got it.
Speaker 1: But then there's the question of that's the really the
Speaker 1: nugget of the question is is the universe deterministic? You know,
Speaker 1: if you have a particle or a billiard ball or
Speaker 1: a cannonball or whatever, and you understand direction it's going,
Speaker 1: can you predict its future out into infinity? Right?
Speaker 5: Right?
Speaker 1: Can you tell exactly what's going to happen?
Speaker 4: But there's so many factors leading up to me tossing
Speaker 4: the coin that it's so unpredictable that it's it's it
Speaker 4: feels random.
Speaker 1: That's right. And so we have to separate between what's
Speaker 1: practical and what's in theory possible. Okay, anything that's chaotic.
Speaker 1: We're saying, in theory, if you knew enough, you could
Speaker 1: predict it, right, whereas but in practice that we can't.
Speaker 1: So it's it's it's.
Speaker 4: So it seems. It seems the random number generators and
Speaker 4: computers when they try to come up with a random number,
Speaker 4: it's not really random, you're saying, it's just an algorithm.
Speaker 4: That's chaotic.
Speaker 1: That's right. Computers, by construction are deterministic, right, We've built
Speaker 1: them to be deterministic. Every time you run a program,
Speaker 1: it should give you the same answer if you give
Speaker 1: it the same input, right, right. There's no way for
Speaker 1: computer to do anything but that. It's like a series
Speaker 1: of logic gates, and you know, how it's implemented is
Speaker 1: not important, but you know, it's a system for doing
Speaker 1: deterministic calculations. That's what a computer is. So it's impossible
Speaker 1: for computer to be truly random. All the random number
Speaker 1: generators in your favorite Python code are actually pseudo random
Speaker 1: number generators. They're just chaotic. They take a seed a
Speaker 1: number to start from, and then they spin off of
Speaker 1: that and generate a sequence of numbers. But if you
Speaker 1: give them the same seed twice, they'll generate the same
Speaker 1: sequence of numbers twice.
Speaker 4: Wow. So like if you're playing a video game and
Speaker 4: you're inside of a virtual world, that world is totally
Speaker 4: determinat absolutely it's been crunched on by a logical computers.
Speaker 1: Exactly. You do the same move every time. You'll kill
Speaker 1: that boss character every single time. And not even in
Speaker 1: silly games like you know, like punch Out, where the
Speaker 1: guy is totally predictable, but even in more complicated ones.
Speaker 1: You know, if you're in the same world and you
Speaker 1: do the same thing, the same things should happen. Because
Speaker 1: computers are not capable of true randomness.
Speaker 4: Before we keep going, let's take a short break.
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Speaker 4: So the question is is our universe like a computer simulation? Right? Like,
Speaker 4: the question is is is our universe also being crunched
Speaker 4: by a logical computer that can't be random?
Speaker 1: That's right? And for a long time people thought the
Speaker 1: universe was deterministic. I mean, we were able to predict
Speaker 1: the outcome of every experiment. Things were going along really well.
Speaker 1: And then of.
Speaker 4: Course we can throw a spaceship and land it on
Speaker 4: the moon.
Speaker 1: That's pretty crazy, right, Yeah, that well, that's pretty risky,
Speaker 1: but yeah, that's pretty amazing. You have to certainly have
Speaker 1: confidence in our ability to predict the future if you're
Speaker 1: going to get into that cannon ball and get shot
Speaker 1: out into space. Right.
Speaker 4: Well, I remember in Gratz Cloths, in this classic it's
Speaker 4: called linear dynamical systems. But I remember in class, this
Speaker 4: guy was so the professor was so cocky. He's like,
Speaker 4: of all the technologies that contributed to putting a man
Speaker 4: on the moon, this is the one that made it happen.
Speaker 1: Linear algebra.
Speaker 4: I kind of had this linear algebra equation we would
Speaker 4: not be able to put a man in the mood.
Speaker 4: And so that's how powerful this idea is, right, Like,
Speaker 4: if you can predict f equals in a you can
Speaker 4: put a man on the mood.
Speaker 1: Yeah. No, it's exactly right. And it's given us great
Speaker 1: power over our environment. I mean, everything that we have
Speaker 1: is because we have mastered a lot of the laws
Speaker 1: of our environment and then use them and bent them
Speaker 1: to our will to improve our lives. Right, So it
Speaker 1: certainly works, and we rely in every day, every time
Speaker 1: you get into a car or an airplane, you rely
Speaker 1: on it working the same way it did yesterday, right, right, right,
Speaker 1: So that's that's a relief. But it was about one
Speaker 1: hundred years ago when people started seeing things that they
Speaker 1: couldn't explain, and it was quantum mechanics that told us
Speaker 1: that maybe the universe is not deterministic. Maybe these little
Speaker 1: particles don't follow the same rules that like billiard balls
Speaker 1: and basketballs and larger objects follow, and maybe they're not
Speaker 1: even deterministic, meaning you do the same experiment twice with
Speaker 1: tiny particles, you could get different outcomes even if you
Speaker 1: do it exactly the same way.
Speaker 4: And this all came about when people started noticing that
Speaker 4: like light and things had a minimum size, right, Like
Speaker 4: light doesn't come in infinitely small bits of light, Like
Speaker 4: there's chunks of light.
Speaker 1: That's right. Yeah, Einstein was looking at some experiments it
Speaker 1: didn't quite make sense, and the only way he could
Speaker 1: explain them was if light came in little packets. And
Speaker 1: that's what quantum means. Quantum means a unit or a packet,
Speaker 1: and so he suggested that maybe light comes in these
Speaker 1: little packets. But then it had all these far reaching consequences,
Speaker 1: you know, about light going through mirrors and through prisms,
Speaker 1: and the way people could understand that was only if
Speaker 1: there were various probabilities for things to happen, and they
Speaker 1: began this whole revolution of quantum mechanics, which then Einstein
Speaker 1: tried to put the brakes on, right, He was like, wait,
Speaker 1: hold on a second, guys, this is crazy talk. There's
Speaker 1: no way the universe works this.
Speaker 4: Way, meaning like, this idea of quantum stuff only made
Speaker 4: sense if the universe work based on probabilities, not like deterministically,
Speaker 4: you know, you have to describe things with wave functions,
Speaker 4: and things aren't really like point particles or kind of
Speaker 4: fuzzy things.
Speaker 1: That's exactly the point is that there's this fuzziness in
Speaker 1: the universe and quantum mechanics because there's these minimum sized
Speaker 1: objects and the way they interfere with each other and
Speaker 1: the way the calculations happen. Quantum mechanics predicts that the
Speaker 1: universe is fundamentally random, and it means that, for example,
Speaker 1: you have an electron, you don't know exactly where it is.
Speaker 1: There's a probability distribution that says, most likely it's here,
Speaker 1: maybe it's there, maybe it's somewhere else.
Speaker 4: Is it that we can't is it like a randomness,
Speaker 4: like we can't know where it is, or that there's
Speaker 4: this trade off between like momentum and position.
Speaker 1: Right, that's exactly the right question, and that's exactly what
Speaker 1: people were asking. They looked at these equations and they said, well,
Speaker 1: is it that we can't predict where the electron is,
Speaker 1: like it's totally impossible to predict. Or is it that
Speaker 1: we just don't know where it is that we haven't
Speaker 1: figured it out how to get that information? Right? Does
Speaker 1: the information not exist or do we just not have it?
Speaker 1: And so Einstein is the one who said there must
Speaker 1: be some hidden variable, there must be something that these
Speaker 1: particles are carrying, some piece of information that determines exactly
Speaker 1: what's going to happen to them. But we just don't
Speaker 1: know what it is. Oh I see to him. It
Speaker 1: was crazy to think that you could shoot an electron
Speaker 1: into an experiment twice and get two different answers, but
Speaker 1: that's what appeared to happen. People set up these careful
Speaker 1: experiments where you would shoot a photon one at a time.
Speaker 1: You would shoot photons into an experiment, and every photon
Speaker 1: would do something different, and then as you would accumulate
Speaker 1: a bunch of photons, it would add up to give
Speaker 1: you a distribution that made sense to you, just the
Speaker 1: same way when you flip a coin, you get heads,
Speaker 1: you get tails, you get heads, you get tails. It
Speaker 1: seems random, but eventually it builds up to fifty to fifty. Right.
Speaker 1: Quantum mechanics tells us all we can do is predict
Speaker 1: the eventual distribution. We can say, if you measure a
Speaker 1: thousand electrons, some of them will go here and some
Speaker 1: of them will go there. It says you can't predict
Speaker 1: any individual one. All you can predict is the distribution
Speaker 1: of outcomes.
Speaker 4: So eistin was like, maybe a photon is kind of
Speaker 4: like the coin we were talking about before, Like maybe
Speaker 4: it seems random to us, but really it's just kind
Speaker 4: of this chain of little local events that actually make
Speaker 4: it predictable. That's right, if we knew all that information inside,
Speaker 4: Like maybe it just looks fuzzy to us and we
Speaker 4: can't tell where it is, but inside that part of
Speaker 4: really actually knows where it is.
Speaker 1: It's exactly right.
Speaker 4: That's what he wanted to believe, right.
Speaker 1: That's what he wanted to believe, And you got to
Speaker 1: sympathize with the guy. Right, it's hard to imagine that
Speaker 1: the universe would not be deterministic. I mean, we spent
Speaker 1: hundreds of years building up our confidence in science and
Speaker 1: in physics, especially as being able to predict the future,
Speaker 1: and just of saying, basically, the universe follows rules. Right,
Speaker 1: So now all of a sudden, you're telling us, what
Speaker 1: there's like dice in there?
Speaker 5: Right?
Speaker 1: Is there some randomness? Like every time you shoot an
Speaker 1: electronic experiment, somebody or something or the universe is making
Speaker 1: like a random decision about where it's going to go.
Speaker 1: It seems crazy. So you're absolutely right. And he suggested
Speaker 1: that a simpler explanation is that they're carrying along another
Speaker 1: piece of information that we just don't have access to,
Speaker 1: or can't measure or didn't measure, and that that's actually
Speaker 1: determining in a totally predictable way what's going to happen
Speaker 1: to each particle. That was his solution to the problem.
Speaker 4: Well, he famously said God doesn't play dice, right.
Speaker 1: Famously quoted as saying that I'm not sure he actually did,
Speaker 1: but it's oh, it's really but it's a pretty good
Speaker 1: summary of what he believed fake news about hindsight, Well,
Speaker 1: like a lot of fake news is a kernel of
Speaker 1: truth in it. He certainly wanted to believe in the
Speaker 1: deterministic universe and it made sense to him. And you
Speaker 1: know what it makes sense to me. I mean the
Speaker 1: idea that there's like a true random number generator somewhere
Speaker 1: in the universe that's making a decision every time you
Speaker 1: shoot an electron into something. It doesn't make any sense
Speaker 1: to me intuitively. You know, not that the universe has
Speaker 1: to make sense to me intuitively, but it doesn't.
Speaker 4: So you're saying, the quantum mechanics says that there is
Speaker 4: a randomness in things, and so where is that randomness
Speaker 4: actually in like the position of particles, in their velocity,
Speaker 4: in their like very being, in their energy level. Is
Speaker 4: this randomness of everything?
Speaker 1: Well, there's randomness at every level. I mean there's randomness
Speaker 1: between every time you look at something. So say, for example,
Speaker 1: you measure an electron, you see it's a certain place,
Speaker 1: then you look away, right, because you can't monitor an
Speaker 1: electron every moment or every nanosecond even you look away,
Speaker 1: what does the electron do between when you last saw
Speaker 1: it and when you'll next see it?
Speaker 4: Meaning like, if I know where it is and how
Speaker 4: fast it's going, and then I look away and I
Speaker 4: look again, is it going to be where I think
Speaker 4: it's going to be?
Speaker 1: Yes, exactly. And so every moment of an electron or
Speaker 1: a particle's life is determined by quantum mechanics, which says
Speaker 1: this is a probability distribution. It's not like the electron
Speaker 1: is doing something behind your back. It's got one particular
Speaker 1: path that you're just not aware of behind your back,
Speaker 1: and you just don't know it. It doesn't have a
Speaker 1: specific path. It's not like it goes from A to
Speaker 1: B via a particular path. It has a probability of
Speaker 1: different ways to get there. WHOA And if you don't look,
Speaker 1: then it's sort of doing all of them at once.
Speaker 1: They all have different probabilities, and those probabilities are the
Speaker 1: things determined by the laws of physics. So there still
Speaker 1: are laws. Physics still does tell the universe how to run.
Speaker 1: It's just that those laws are probabilistic. It says, look,
Speaker 1: mister electron, instead of telling you exactly where you're going
Speaker 1: to go, I'm going to say you have a seventy
Speaker 1: percent chance of doing this and a thirty percent chance
Speaker 1: of doing that.
Speaker 4: So that's where the fuzziness and the randomness comes in.
Speaker 4: It's not that it like, it looks fuzzy, it's just
Speaker 4: that it's just hard to predict where it's going to be.
Speaker 1: It's impossible.
Speaker 4: I mean, you know all this information, it's impossible.
Speaker 1: It's impossible to predict the future. Impossible exactly. You can
Speaker 1: predict the various likelihood of this or the likelihood of
Speaker 1: that at the particle level, but you can't say what
Speaker 1: one particle is going to do. Wow, Now Einstein said,
Speaker 1: that's crazy, right, There's no way that's true. There must
Speaker 1: be a way to predict it must be there there's
Speaker 1: some piece of information there. And then some guys came
Speaker 1: up with an experiment. They came up with this crazy experiment.
Speaker 1: It's based on an idea called Bell's inequality. To test
Speaker 1: this theory, they said, let's see if the universe is
Speaker 1: really random, or if there's some hidden piece of information
Speaker 1: that's actually secretly determining things.
Speaker 4: Like let's see if if I really can't predict where
Speaker 4: that electron is going to go, or if it's actually
Speaker 4: like the electron knows, it just won't tell.
Speaker 1: Us, yeah, right, exactly. And so they set up this
Speaker 1: cool experiment where they took a particle and they had
Speaker 1: to shoot out two particles in opposite directions. And those
Speaker 1: particles are therefore connected because they have to conserve momentum
Speaker 1: and they have to conserve energy and have to conserve spin.
Speaker 1: And so if you know something about one particle, then
Speaker 1: you know something about the other particle. But both particles
Speaker 1: have equal probability to be like spin up or spin down,
Speaker 1: or point this way, a point the other way. But
Speaker 1: you know something about the combination of the two. And
Speaker 1: so they came up with this really ingenious experiment to
Speaker 1: measure how often you saw one spin up and one
Speaker 1: spin down, for example, and based on the outcome of that,
Speaker 1: you could tell whether there was a secret, hidden piece
Speaker 1: of information that was controlling both particles, or whether they
Speaker 1: were both truly random. And the experiments are conclusive, and
Speaker 1: it's been done as zillion times, and the experiment tells
Speaker 1: us that the universe at its core really is random.
Speaker 1: It's making a random decision every time you look at
Speaker 1: these particles.
Speaker 4: So beyond the shadow of a doubt, we know that
Speaker 4: the universe is random.
Speaker 1: The universe is random absolutely.
Speaker 4: There's no.
Speaker 1: There's no escape clause, there's no if hands or butts,
Speaker 1: there's no there's no loopholes. The universe at the particle
Speaker 1: level is really random. Now, you said something really interesting earlier.
Speaker 1: You know, even if the universe is random at the
Speaker 1: lowest level, that doesn't necessarily mean that it's random at
Speaker 1: other levels, right, Like we still got to the moon. Right.
Speaker 1: It's not like we're saying science doesn't work or you
Speaker 1: shouldn't get in that airplane. Right. Science works at at
Speaker 1: different levels. And even if it's random at the very
Speaker 1: very small level, doesn't mean that on average it's really predictable, right, Like,
Speaker 1: we do know how basketballs bounce, right, And that's because
Speaker 1: the randomness only applies to these tiny little particles, and
Speaker 1: over the ten to the thirty or whatever particles and
Speaker 1: a basketball, that all averages out to something very very predictable.
Speaker 4: Wow, So like random events Canada add up to predictable events?
Speaker 4: Is that kind of what you're saying?
Speaker 1: Yeah, exactly, Like you can't tell how any individual voter
Speaker 1: is going to vote, but if you've done enough polls
Speaker 1: you can tell you know how the nation is going
Speaker 1: to vote at a certain election.
Speaker 4: That worked out so well in the twenty sixteen election.
Speaker 1: Yeah, maybe that wasn't the best.
Speaker 4: Example totally predictable. At the level of particles, there is randomness,
Speaker 4: but maybe in the macroscale things are fairly predictable. Yeah,
Speaker 4: but how does that affect things like free will? Does
Speaker 4: that mean that, like my brain, does quantum randomness give
Speaker 4: me some sort of unpredictability or free will as you
Speaker 4: might call it, Or is my brain also very predictable
Speaker 4: in the long run.
Speaker 1: It's a great question, and into this tiny crack in determinism,
Speaker 1: you know, saying that at the particle level things are
Speaker 1: truly random, and there's flooded and enormous literature of consciousness
Speaker 1: and all sorts of philosophy that try to connect free
Speaker 1: will to quantum randomness, you know, to say that this
Speaker 1: is the whole we needed, This is what breaks determinism
Speaker 1: and allows for me and my soul and God and
Speaker 1: all the and and all the things you want to
Speaker 1: cram into your universe. Right, I'm not convinced that quantum
Speaker 1: mechanics allows for free will, or for souls or you know,
Speaker 1: for all that kind of stuff, but it certainly does
Speaker 1: dismantle the deterministic watchlike universe that we thought we had.
Speaker 4: M So, just because something is random doesn't mean you
Speaker 4: have free will.
Speaker 1: Like it's just random, yeah, exactly, exactly. And so to
Speaker 1: answer the question, you know, is the universe random or
Speaker 1: is it chaotic? Turns out it's kind of both. Right,
Speaker 1: It's random at the particle level, but it's chaotic at
Speaker 1: the macroscopic level. Right. Things do seem to be fairly
Speaker 1: deterministic at the macroscopic level, but then again they're too
Speaker 1: chaotic to really to really model. So it's not like
Speaker 1: you can predict the weather.
Speaker 4: It's kind of a progression. Like it's random at the
Speaker 4: particle level, it's kind of deterministic at a medium range level,
Speaker 4: but then as you get to larger and larger systems,
Speaker 4: then it's chaotic and it's practically unpredictable.
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, exactly right. So any answer you want there's
Speaker 1: some place in the universe.
Speaker 4: Is yeah, I just pick a random, random answer and
Speaker 4: it will be.
Speaker 1: So maybe that's why people answered it's such a such
Speaker 1: streams of gibberish to our question, because because they really
Speaker 1: deeply understood that the universe was both random and chaotic.
Speaker 4: Wow, wisdom of the crowd.
Speaker 1: Wisdom of the crowd. Exactly, you average over ten random
Speaker 1: people and there is some insight. Yeah, exactly. That's the
Speaker 1: whole that's the whole problem.
Speaker 4: The answer is the answer is yes.
Speaker 1: So I think it's it's fun to think about that
Speaker 1: in ste of the larger context. You know, like we
Speaker 1: started off thinking the universe was crazy, then we started
Speaker 1: to get some grips on it. Then we felt like, oh,
Speaker 1: maybe the universe is sort of too tight a grip
Speaker 1: on us because it seems deterministic, and they we've got
Speaker 1: this crack thanks to quantum mechanics that says it's random.
Speaker 1: But I don't really know how comfortable people are with
Speaker 1: that crack, you know, to think that the universe doesn't
Speaker 1: know what it's going to do at any moment, like
Speaker 1: they could do this, it could do that. That's sort
Speaker 1: of terrifying. I stand Einstein's fear. That Einstein's dislike or
Speaker 1: disdain for that, and that leaves us in a sort
Speaker 1: of uncomfortable position.
Speaker 4: And it might get even crazier, right, Like, let's say
Speaker 4: that we build quantum computers and then there's AI based
Speaker 4: on quantum computers. That that would be even crazier.
Speaker 1: Right, Yeah, I'd love to read that science fiction novel
Speaker 1: that's that's how AI develops free will, Right.
Speaker 4: Quantum computers maybe more than us, That's exactly right. All right, Well,
Speaker 4: thank you for joining us. I hope that didn't seem
Speaker 4: like a random, random or chaotic discussion.
Speaker 1: But those are really fun topics. I think it's super
Speaker 1: fun to try to wrap your mind around those things.
Speaker 1: And you know, one of the basic questions of physics
Speaker 1: is not just what is the world made out or
Speaker 1: what are the bits and pieces? But like what are
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