1
00:00:02,400 --> 00:00:06,080
Speaker 1: This is the Late Podcast with your host JJ zacheris

2
00:00:06,160 --> 00:00:14,800
Speaker 1: J Zacher. What's up everyone, It's JJ Zacharyesen in this

3
00:00:14,880 --> 00:00:18,759
Speaker 1: episode eleven twelve of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast.

4
00:00:19,720 --> 00:00:23,000
Speaker 1: Thanks for tuning in to me. Fantasy football is about

5
00:00:23,040 --> 00:00:26,200
Speaker 1: finding small edges that come together and add up to

6
00:00:26,200 --> 00:00:29,520
Speaker 1: become a big edge. We look at certain metrics, we

7
00:00:29,600 --> 00:00:32,919
Speaker 1: have a specific process. We do things to give us

8
00:00:32,920 --> 00:00:36,120
Speaker 1: an edge of our competition. And one of those things,

9
00:00:36,120 --> 00:00:38,360
Speaker 1: albeit not the most important thing in the world, is

10
00:00:38,400 --> 00:00:41,800
Speaker 1: schedule analysis. It's looking at who our players might be

11
00:00:41,880 --> 00:00:45,720
Speaker 1: facing because we know that matchups are not irrelevant. I

12
00:00:45,800 --> 00:00:49,159
Speaker 1: do this episode every year on early season schedule analysis.

13
00:00:49,520 --> 00:00:51,879
Speaker 1: Like I said, it's not the end all, but I

14
00:00:51,920 --> 00:00:54,920
Speaker 1: focus on the early season stuff. Because number one, teams

15
00:00:54,920 --> 00:00:58,520
Speaker 1: are healthy, we have some idea as to what defenses

16
00:00:58,560 --> 00:01:01,360
Speaker 1: are gonna look like, Whereas if we did this before

17
00:01:01,400 --> 00:01:04,280
Speaker 1: the season, looking at like week fifteen or sixteen, we

18
00:01:04,400 --> 00:01:07,039
Speaker 1: might have some idea, but defenses are going to look

19
00:01:07,040 --> 00:01:12,720
Speaker 1: a lot different personnel wise because injuries happen and things change.

20
00:01:12,800 --> 00:01:14,800
Speaker 1: But number two, we want to have confidence in the

21
00:01:14,800 --> 00:01:17,080
Speaker 1: players that we draft, and we want to turn a

22
00:01:17,160 --> 00:01:21,039
Speaker 1: profit immediately. If your first round pick has a tough

23
00:01:21,040 --> 00:01:24,399
Speaker 1: early season schedule, and if he struggles, even if you

24
00:01:24,480 --> 00:01:27,560
Speaker 1: know those matchups were tough, you're still gonna have some doubts.

25
00:01:28,840 --> 00:01:32,240
Speaker 1: You ideally want to win and win right away, not

26
00:01:32,280 --> 00:01:34,640
Speaker 1: only in the win loss column, but you want your

27
00:01:34,680 --> 00:01:37,280
Speaker 1: players to increase in value so you can feel more

28
00:01:37,319 --> 00:01:40,399
Speaker 1: comfortable with what you have on your team, and in

29
00:01:40,480 --> 00:01:43,600
Speaker 1: more active leagues, you can then trade them for a profit.

30
00:01:45,000 --> 00:01:47,120
Speaker 1: So the idea with the analysis that I'm about to

31
00:01:47,120 --> 00:01:49,640
Speaker 1: get to is that it shouldn't be the sole decision

32
00:01:49,640 --> 00:01:52,840
Speaker 1: maker for you, but as a tiebreaker, as something to

33
00:01:52,880 --> 00:01:55,440
Speaker 1: at least keep in mind as you draft players, knowing

34
00:01:55,440 --> 00:01:57,560
Speaker 1: that you might need some backup if the player has

35
00:01:57,560 --> 00:02:01,240
Speaker 1: a tough schedule. I think it can be useful for that. Actually,

36
00:02:01,600 --> 00:02:05,120
Speaker 1: I know it can because it has in the past. Now,

37
00:02:05,120 --> 00:02:08,600
Speaker 1: before get into that analysis, just as a reminder, check

38
00:02:08,639 --> 00:02:11,240
Speaker 1: out the Late Round Draft Guide. It's well over two

39
00:02:11,360 --> 00:02:14,000
Speaker 1: hundred and seventy pages of content where I go through

40
00:02:14,040 --> 00:02:16,880
Speaker 1: game theory, I explain how to spot breakouts and bus

41
00:02:16,960 --> 00:02:19,360
Speaker 1: There's a section on players of target and avoid. There's

42
00:02:19,440 --> 00:02:22,440
Speaker 1: cheat sheets and so much more. You can order it

43
00:02:22,560 --> 00:02:25,680
Speaker 1: right now on lateround dot com, or you can become

44
00:02:25,720 --> 00:02:28,720
Speaker 1: an All Access member. If you're an All Access member,

45
00:02:29,000 --> 00:02:31,240
Speaker 1: you get access to not only the Draft Guide, but

46
00:02:31,280 --> 00:02:34,920
Speaker 1: the Prospect Guide too, alongside all the member perks like

47
00:02:34,960 --> 00:02:38,480
Speaker 1: discord access, rankings and tiers and more. You can learn

48
00:02:38,480 --> 00:02:44,079
Speaker 1: more about everything again over on the Lateround dot com.

49
00:02:44,240 --> 00:02:46,359
Speaker 1: I've said before on the show that Malik Willis is

50
00:02:46,400 --> 00:02:48,679
Speaker 1: the easiest pick to make in season long leagues this year.

51
00:02:48,960 --> 00:02:53,040
Speaker 1: Not necessarily best ball, but season long, yes, because if

52
00:02:53,080 --> 00:02:56,359
Speaker 1: he's terrible and we see that he's terrible, you can

53
00:02:56,440 --> 00:02:59,519
Speaker 1: make a move and start streaming as your worst case scenario.

54
00:03:00,360 --> 00:03:03,280
Speaker 1: Or you just draft Molik Willis in another quarterback this

55
00:03:03,400 --> 00:03:06,399
Speaker 1: year to increase your odds with hitting on one of them.

56
00:03:07,120 --> 00:03:09,640
Speaker 1: Maybe pair them with a more stable piece like Brock

57
00:03:09,680 --> 00:03:12,959
Speaker 1: Purty or something. Willis showed off some upside in a

58
00:03:13,000 --> 00:03:15,680
Speaker 1: small sample in Green Bay, But this episode it's not

59
00:03:15,720 --> 00:03:18,320
Speaker 1: about digging into why you should be into him. I'm

60
00:03:18,400 --> 00:03:20,560
Speaker 1: bringing him up because there's something a little extra to

61
00:03:20,560 --> 00:03:24,400
Speaker 1: get excited about. Miami has a really favorable schedule to

62
00:03:24,520 --> 00:03:27,200
Speaker 1: open up the season. Willis could actually get off to

63
00:03:27,240 --> 00:03:30,480
Speaker 1: a hot start. Miami opens the season against the Raiders,

64
00:03:30,680 --> 00:03:34,720
Speaker 1: then they get the forty nine Ers, Chiefs, Vikings, Bengals,

65
00:03:34,840 --> 00:03:37,760
Speaker 1: a bye week, and then the Jets. Now I'll be

66
00:03:37,840 --> 00:03:41,640
Speaker 1: referencing the secondary rankings on today's show from Sharp Football Analysis,

67
00:03:42,040 --> 00:03:44,640
Speaker 1: just to have something objective to share with you guys.

68
00:03:45,160 --> 00:03:48,480
Speaker 1: And according to those rankings, five of those six opponents

69
00:03:48,720 --> 00:03:52,080
Speaker 1: ranked twenty third or worse in pass defense entering the year.

70
00:03:52,840 --> 00:03:55,600
Speaker 1: The one team who ranks higher than that is Minnesota.

71
00:03:56,160 --> 00:03:59,960
Speaker 1: Minnesota ranks sixteenth according to those rankings. That means Miami

72
00:04:00,080 --> 00:04:01,840
Speaker 1: he doesn't have a super tough opponent in terms of

73
00:04:01,840 --> 00:04:05,240
Speaker 1: pass defense across their first six games, and we know

74
00:04:05,360 --> 00:04:08,560
Speaker 1: Miami they might lean run heavy, but like I said,

75
00:04:08,680 --> 00:04:10,880
Speaker 1: in that stretch of games they get the forty nine Ers,

76
00:04:10,920 --> 00:04:14,320
Speaker 1: the Chiefs, and the Bengals, those are games where they

77
00:04:14,400 --> 00:04:16,120
Speaker 1: might be forced to throw the ball a little bit more.

78
00:04:16,680 --> 00:04:18,640
Speaker 1: We don't know what this pass catching room is going

79
00:04:18,720 --> 00:04:21,080
Speaker 1: to look like for the Dolphins, but I do think

80
00:04:21,120 --> 00:04:22,600
Speaker 1: that this should make you feel a little bit more

81
00:04:22,640 --> 00:04:25,640
Speaker 1: comfortable in drafting Maleik Willis this year. We know the

82
00:04:25,720 --> 00:04:28,000
Speaker 1: upside is present and there's not that much in the

83
00:04:28,040 --> 00:04:33,240
Speaker 1: way in terms of schedule. Denver has a really tough

84
00:04:33,240 --> 00:04:35,520
Speaker 1: schedule to open up the season. They get the Chiefs

85
00:04:35,560 --> 00:04:38,200
Speaker 1: in Week one. Then it's the Jags, the Rams, the

86
00:04:38,240 --> 00:04:41,560
Speaker 1: forty nine Ers, the Chargers, and then the Seahawks. That

87
00:04:41,680 --> 00:04:45,440
Speaker 1: is absolutely brutal. Five of those six teams have win

88
00:04:45,520 --> 00:04:49,520
Speaker 1: totals above ten. I do think there's high scoring potential

89
00:04:49,560 --> 00:04:51,599
Speaker 1: in some of those contests, but I think that we

90
00:04:51,600 --> 00:04:53,719
Speaker 1: should be cognizant of the fact that Denver has a

91
00:04:53,720 --> 00:04:56,839
Speaker 1: real shot to hit some negative game scripts through this stretch.

92
00:04:57,320 --> 00:04:59,960
Speaker 1: And if that's the case, I'm looking at that backfield

93
00:05:00,160 --> 00:05:02,960
Speaker 1: and it makes me a little bit more fearful about JK. Dobbins.

94
00:05:03,800 --> 00:05:06,640
Speaker 1: Dobbins played fewer than fifteen percent of the Broncos long

95
00:05:06,680 --> 00:05:09,159
Speaker 1: down and distant snaps last year, and he was on

96
00:05:09,240 --> 00:05:11,279
Speaker 1: the field for fewer than thirty percent of the team's

97
00:05:11,279 --> 00:05:14,400
Speaker 1: two minute snaps. Now, we don't know exactly how some

98
00:05:14,520 --> 00:05:16,400
Speaker 1: of that work is going to be divided this year.

99
00:05:17,240 --> 00:05:20,000
Speaker 1: There's a slightly different look to that backfield. But if

100
00:05:20,040 --> 00:05:22,880
Speaker 1: the Broncos end up trailing in any of those games,

101
00:05:23,240 --> 00:05:25,640
Speaker 1: I do think we run into the risk of Dobbins

102
00:05:25,640 --> 00:05:28,800
Speaker 1: being game scripted out. Now, I personally am not been

103
00:05:28,880 --> 00:05:31,440
Speaker 1: that high on Dobbins this year because if I'm grabbing

104
00:05:31,480 --> 00:05:34,760
Speaker 1: an early down back. I'd rather just wait and get

105
00:05:34,760 --> 00:05:38,320
Speaker 1: someone like Jordan Mason or maybe even Chris Rodriguez. They

106
00:05:38,360 --> 00:05:41,680
Speaker 1: go a lot later on the major platforms. And there's

107
00:05:41,720 --> 00:05:44,960
Speaker 1: another reason why I'm more out than in on Dobbins

108
00:05:44,960 --> 00:05:49,840
Speaker 1: this year. I'm bullish on the Jags this year. I

109
00:05:49,920 --> 00:05:52,279
Speaker 1: love that offense, but I do have to admit that

110
00:05:52,320 --> 00:05:54,880
Speaker 1: facing Cleveland, Denver, and New England to kick off the

111
00:05:54,960 --> 00:05:57,600
Speaker 1: year won't be the easiest thing for the passing offense

112
00:05:57,600 --> 00:06:00,479
Speaker 1: to face. They get a slight break in Week four

113
00:06:00,480 --> 00:06:03,680
Speaker 1: against Cincinnati, but then it's Philly and Houston right after that.

114
00:06:04,480 --> 00:06:07,400
Speaker 1: For context, Sharp Football has five of those first six

115
00:06:07,400 --> 00:06:11,960
Speaker 1: opponents as having top ten secondaries in football entering the season. Now,

116
00:06:11,960 --> 00:06:13,720
Speaker 1: I don't think this is necessarily a death sentence for

117
00:06:13,760 --> 00:06:16,920
Speaker 1: the team's passing attack, especially considering the Jags have team

118
00:06:16,960 --> 00:06:20,080
Speaker 1: totals of twenty to twenty four point five in each

119
00:06:20,120 --> 00:06:23,360
Speaker 1: of those games according to draftings. With that being said,

120
00:06:23,680 --> 00:06:26,240
Speaker 1: we're not getting the huge team total spikes that we've

121
00:06:26,279 --> 00:06:29,560
Speaker 1: got for them post by. The first six games for

122
00:06:29,600 --> 00:06:32,279
Speaker 1: the Jags have an average team total of twenty two

123
00:06:32,279 --> 00:06:36,440
Speaker 1: point two. Their next five games are twenty four point six,

124
00:06:36,920 --> 00:06:39,520
Speaker 1: so two and a half points higher, which when it

125
00:06:39,560 --> 00:06:43,680
Speaker 1: comes to probability, median outcomes and team totals, that's not

126
00:06:43,720 --> 00:06:47,320
Speaker 1: insignificant at all. So be aware of this as you're

127
00:06:47,360 --> 00:06:50,400
Speaker 1: drafting Jags this year. It's not making me off of them.

128
00:06:50,440 --> 00:06:53,159
Speaker 1: I still like the Jags passing attack. It's just that

129
00:06:53,200 --> 00:06:56,120
Speaker 1: we might have an opportunity to buy after that. Week

130
00:06:56,200 --> 00:07:00,680
Speaker 1: seven by Jamiir Gibbs is my I one toh one

131
00:07:00,720 --> 00:07:03,920
Speaker 1: this year? In my goodness, the Lions could just smash

132
00:07:04,080 --> 00:07:07,640
Speaker 1: in general this year offensively. Let me read the matchups

133
00:07:07,640 --> 00:07:12,920
Speaker 1: for Detroit to start the year Saints Bills, Jets, Panthers,

134
00:07:13,240 --> 00:07:17,640
Speaker 1: Cardinals Bye Week. Not only are those four very winnable

135
00:07:17,680 --> 00:07:20,040
Speaker 1: games where we could end up seeing positive game scripts,

136
00:07:20,200 --> 00:07:22,320
Speaker 1: but that game against Buffalo has a chance to be

137
00:07:22,440 --> 00:07:26,680
Speaker 1: high scoring two. Detroit's schedule, according to win totals, is

138
00:07:26,680 --> 00:07:29,520
Speaker 1: actually the easiest in all of football this year, like

139
00:07:29,600 --> 00:07:32,560
Speaker 1: across the season, and while we'd want more of a

140
00:07:32,600 --> 00:07:35,320
Speaker 1: back and forth nature from a game script perspective, we

141
00:07:35,400 --> 00:07:37,920
Speaker 1: know that implied team totals can at least give us

142
00:07:37,960 --> 00:07:41,040
Speaker 1: some idea of how well an offense is gonna perform.

143
00:07:41,360 --> 00:07:44,400
Speaker 1: And Detroit doesn't have a single matchup where their implied

144
00:07:44,440 --> 00:07:48,040
Speaker 1: team total right now today is under twenty four points.

145
00:07:48,800 --> 00:07:51,040
Speaker 1: They're the only team in football where that's the case.

146
00:07:52,200 --> 00:07:55,320
Speaker 1: That's good news for everyone in that offense. With this

147
00:07:55,400 --> 00:07:58,160
Speaker 1: being about early season schedules, it doesn't get that much

148
00:07:58,160 --> 00:08:02,680
Speaker 1: better for a player like Gibbs than this Saints, Bills, Jets, Panthers,

149
00:08:02,680 --> 00:08:06,840
Speaker 1: and Cardinals. We may not see as much passing volume,

150
00:08:07,120 --> 00:08:10,440
Speaker 1: but I'm expecting a great start for this Lions run game.

151
00:08:13,240 --> 00:08:15,680
Speaker 1: The Chargers have a really interesting schedule this year. It's

152
00:08:15,720 --> 00:08:18,080
Speaker 1: like a parabola. The first two weeks are great. They

153
00:08:18,160 --> 00:08:21,600
Speaker 1: face the Cardinals and Raiders, Helloa, mari and Hampton. But

154
00:08:21,640 --> 00:08:26,800
Speaker 1: then after that two week stretch you get the Bills, Seahawks, Broncos, Chiefs, Rams, Texans,

155
00:08:26,840 --> 00:08:34,000
Speaker 1: and Ravens. Brutal. After that, though, it's the Jets, Patriots, Bucks, Raiders,

156
00:08:34,040 --> 00:08:37,400
Speaker 1: forty nine, Ers, Dolphins, and Chiefs. Some tougher matchups in there,

157
00:08:37,440 --> 00:08:39,880
Speaker 1: for sure, but it's not nearly as bad as that

158
00:08:40,000 --> 00:08:43,640
Speaker 1: middle season stretch. So what does this all mean? Well,

159
00:08:43,679 --> 00:08:46,200
Speaker 1: I don't think you need to necessarily draft Chargers any

160
00:08:46,240 --> 00:08:49,000
Speaker 1: differently than you already have been, but I do think

161
00:08:49,040 --> 00:08:52,240
Speaker 1: that after Week two we may have a cell opportunity

162
00:08:52,360 --> 00:08:54,400
Speaker 1: if your fantasy team's like zero to two with someone

163
00:08:54,400 --> 00:08:58,040
Speaker 1: like a mari and Hampton or even Justin Herbert. Just

164
00:08:58,040 --> 00:09:01,319
Speaker 1: because that post week two stretch is really tough, it's

165
00:09:01,320 --> 00:09:03,080
Speaker 1: at least something to keep in mind. If we're entering

166
00:09:03,120 --> 00:09:06,080
Speaker 1: Week three and we're saying omar and Hampton's a league winner,

167
00:09:06,800 --> 00:09:09,440
Speaker 1: I wouldn't ignore who they were facing, though I do

168
00:09:09,520 --> 00:09:12,120
Speaker 1: like a Mario and Hampton this year. So the TLD

169
00:09:12,200 --> 00:09:15,320
Speaker 1: are here. Draft Chargers as you've been drafting them. Be

170
00:09:15,440 --> 00:09:17,960
Speaker 1: prepared for a lot of points in weeks one and two,

171
00:09:18,040 --> 00:09:21,360
Speaker 1: but then also be prepared for potential decision after those

172
00:09:21,440 --> 00:09:24,600
Speaker 1: weeks are over. Fortunately, we don't have to really worry

173
00:09:24,600 --> 00:09:29,439
Speaker 1: about that right now. The Bills open up their season

174
00:09:29,480 --> 00:09:32,560
Speaker 1: against the Texans, the Lions, the Chargers, the Patriots, and

175
00:09:32,559 --> 00:09:35,720
Speaker 1: the Rams. That's really tough. Not only do we have

176
00:09:35,760 --> 00:09:38,280
Speaker 1: some teams in there that could be tough defensively, but

177
00:09:38,320 --> 00:09:41,520
Speaker 1: clearly all of those teams have pretty strong win totals.

178
00:09:41,960 --> 00:09:45,240
Speaker 1: In fact, only Houston's below ten wins, and they clearly

179
00:09:45,280 --> 00:09:47,840
Speaker 1: have one of the best defenses in the game. The

180
00:09:47,880 --> 00:09:49,640
Speaker 1: Bills are good themselves, so it doesn't mean that they

181
00:09:49,679 --> 00:09:51,760
Speaker 1: are a lock to be in a bad game script.

182
00:09:52,080 --> 00:09:54,520
Speaker 1: With that being said, if they do find themselves in

183
00:09:54,559 --> 00:09:59,280
Speaker 1: that situation, James Cook becomes a little bit riskier, largely

184
00:09:59,320 --> 00:10:02,320
Speaker 1: because last year year, including the playoffs, Cook played fewer

185
00:10:02,360 --> 00:10:04,880
Speaker 1: than ten percent of the Bills long down and distant snaps,

186
00:10:05,240 --> 00:10:07,600
Speaker 1: and he played fewer than thirty percent of their two

187
00:10:07,640 --> 00:10:10,800
Speaker 1: minute snaps. Now, there have been reports of them using

188
00:10:10,880 --> 00:10:13,280
Speaker 1: him more in the passing game this year, which would

189
00:10:13,320 --> 00:10:16,640
Speaker 1: really push him into more elite fantasy football territory. If

190
00:10:16,679 --> 00:10:19,640
Speaker 1: that's the case, and he's already been awesome because we

191
00:10:19,679 --> 00:10:22,800
Speaker 1: typically see him under that ten percent target share, that's

192
00:10:22,840 --> 00:10:26,520
Speaker 1: going to give his profile a lot more stability. But

193
00:10:26,600 --> 00:10:28,960
Speaker 1: do be aware that there's at least some chance for

194
00:10:29,000 --> 00:10:31,800
Speaker 1: the Bill's offense to not have the best rushing numbers

195
00:10:31,800 --> 00:10:33,920
Speaker 1: over the first five weeks of the season. I don't

196
00:10:33,960 --> 00:10:35,839
Speaker 1: think it's as big of a deal because the Bills

197
00:10:35,840 --> 00:10:38,800
Speaker 1: themselves are good, like I said, and they can easily

198
00:10:38,800 --> 00:10:41,760
Speaker 1: flip these scripts. We're not talking about a bad team

199
00:10:42,040 --> 00:10:44,559
Speaker 1: with this kind of schedule, but it's something to keep

200
00:10:44,600 --> 00:10:50,080
Speaker 1: in mind, specifically with James Cook. A very similar situation

201
00:10:50,160 --> 00:10:53,120
Speaker 1: exists with the Arizona Cardinals. The Cards open their season

202
00:10:53,160 --> 00:10:57,160
Speaker 1: against the Chargers, Seahawks, and forty nine Ers, three teams

203
00:10:57,160 --> 00:11:00,000
Speaker 1: with high wind totals, and the Cardinals could very easily

204
00:11:00,440 --> 00:11:03,520
Speaker 1: be the worst team in football now. Arizona's not the

205
00:11:03,600 --> 00:11:06,120
Speaker 1: easiest team to figure out this year. They threw more

206
00:11:06,160 --> 00:11:08,840
Speaker 1: than any other team last season. The defense still projects

207
00:11:08,840 --> 00:11:11,160
Speaker 1: to be pretty bad, putting them in negative game scripts.

208
00:11:11,160 --> 00:11:13,400
Speaker 1: But it's not always easy to project the same type

209
00:11:13,400 --> 00:11:18,480
Speaker 1: of scripts year over year, especially when there's turnover, there's

210
00:11:18,520 --> 00:11:22,040
Speaker 1: a new coaching staff, there's a brand new system. It's

211
00:11:22,120 --> 00:11:24,560
Speaker 1: just not as simple as looking at last season numbers

212
00:11:24,679 --> 00:11:27,480
Speaker 1: and converting them to this year. On top of that,

213
00:11:27,480 --> 00:11:30,480
Speaker 1: the Cardinals spent their top five pick on Jeremiah Love,

214
00:11:31,440 --> 00:11:32,920
Speaker 1: so they probably at least want to run the ball

215
00:11:32,960 --> 00:11:36,240
Speaker 1: a little bit more year over year, but they could

216
00:11:36,280 --> 00:11:38,920
Speaker 1: struggle to do that to start the year with these matchups.

217
00:11:39,360 --> 00:11:42,400
Speaker 1: And what's specifically interesting about this dynamic, in my opinion,

218
00:11:42,800 --> 00:11:46,160
Speaker 1: is the Tyler Aljear Jeremiah Loves split to open up

219
00:11:46,160 --> 00:11:48,880
Speaker 1: the season. I think we could all see a scenario

220
00:11:48,960 --> 00:11:51,640
Speaker 1: where Arizona splits their backfield a little bit more at

221
00:11:51,640 --> 00:11:53,319
Speaker 1: the beginning of the season compared to the end of

222
00:11:53,360 --> 00:11:56,360
Speaker 1: the season. To get Love acclimated to the game and

223
00:11:56,400 --> 00:11:59,760
Speaker 1: to ease him in. But the projection for this backfield

224
00:12:00,080 --> 00:12:02,000
Speaker 1: is that Love's gonna do more as a pass catcher

225
00:12:02,120 --> 00:12:05,000
Speaker 1: than Tyler Algier. But what happens if they hit a

226
00:12:05,040 --> 00:12:07,880
Speaker 1: negative game script early on in the season. Is this

227
00:12:07,920 --> 00:12:12,160
Speaker 1: gonna make Algier just not viable whatsoever? I think that's

228
00:12:12,200 --> 00:12:14,520
Speaker 1: a reasonable question to ask if you're gonna draft Tyler

229
00:12:14,559 --> 00:12:18,520
Speaker 1: Algeer this year and manage season long leagues. I personally

230
00:12:18,600 --> 00:12:20,840
Speaker 1: don't think it's a worthwhile bet when there are still

231
00:12:20,840 --> 00:12:24,000
Speaker 1: players in his range who can naturally carve out pretty

232
00:12:24,000 --> 00:12:27,120
Speaker 1: big roles in their offenses, and with a schedule being

233
00:12:27,120 --> 00:12:29,360
Speaker 1: what it is to start the year, you're probably looking

234
00:12:29,360 --> 00:12:32,160
Speaker 1: at him being a touchdown dependent option. That's not what

235
00:12:32,200 --> 00:12:34,360
Speaker 1: I want to bank on in a situation like this.

236
00:12:35,400 --> 00:12:38,000
Speaker 1: But if those negative game scripts do hit, which I

237
00:12:38,000 --> 00:12:41,160
Speaker 1: would imagine they do given this schedule, we could see

238
00:12:41,160 --> 00:12:43,240
Speaker 1: the Cardinals kick off the year with a lot of

239
00:12:43,280 --> 00:12:46,880
Speaker 1: passing volume. And to be honest, Arizona might still see

240
00:12:46,880 --> 00:12:49,000
Speaker 1: a lot of passing volume this year because through the

241
00:12:49,080 --> 00:12:52,120
Speaker 1: lens of win totals, no team has a harder schedule

242
00:12:52,120 --> 00:12:55,079
Speaker 1: than Arizona this season. Now look, I do expect some

243
00:12:55,160 --> 00:12:58,240
Speaker 1: regression on the passing front, like despite the fact that

244
00:12:58,240 --> 00:13:01,439
Speaker 1: this schedule is really hard and the chaos of potentially

245
00:13:01,520 --> 00:13:03,800
Speaker 1: using Carson Beck at some point this year later in

246
00:13:03,840 --> 00:13:07,080
Speaker 1: the season. Probably that's also scary for the pass catchers

247
00:13:07,080 --> 00:13:10,559
Speaker 1: in this offense. But projection wise, they still look like

248
00:13:10,600 --> 00:13:13,640
Speaker 1: a team with ok passing volume. Just be aware of

249
00:13:13,679 --> 00:13:15,840
Speaker 1: those first three weeks could be pretty tough for them.

250
00:13:16,080 --> 00:13:21,080
Speaker 1: Before that Giants game in Week four. The Ravens have

251
00:13:21,160 --> 00:13:24,320
Speaker 1: high implied team totals throughout the season. That's no surprise.

252
00:13:24,480 --> 00:13:27,520
Speaker 1: Lamar Jacksons their quarterback, and while we usually get excited

253
00:13:27,559 --> 00:13:29,600
Speaker 1: for Dereck Henry towards the end of the season when

254
00:13:29,600 --> 00:13:32,520
Speaker 1: he always seems to come through, there's a very very

255
00:13:32,600 --> 00:13:35,640
Speaker 1: real chance that we get great game scripts for Baltimore

256
00:13:35,880 --> 00:13:40,079
Speaker 1: and Derrick Henry to start the year. Henry rarely plays

257
00:13:40,160 --> 00:13:43,720
Speaker 1: long down and distance snaps in two minute snaps. Last year,

258
00:13:43,920 --> 00:13:46,320
Speaker 1: those numbers were just twelve and ten percent according to

259
00:13:46,320 --> 00:13:49,400
Speaker 1: Fantasy Life data. We know this. It's why his route

260
00:13:49,440 --> 00:13:52,840
Speaker 1: share is only in that thirty to thirty five percent range.

261
00:13:52,880 --> 00:13:55,120
Speaker 1: He's just a totally different type of running back, a

262
00:13:55,160 --> 00:13:58,480
Speaker 1: totally different type of player. He's an outlier. He defies

263
00:13:58,600 --> 00:14:02,480
Speaker 1: all pass catching trends, but that might not matter. To

264
00:14:02,520 --> 00:14:06,520
Speaker 1: start the year. Listen to this Ravens schedule Week one

265
00:14:06,559 --> 00:14:10,120
Speaker 1: against Indianapolis. Okay, not necessarily the easiest matchup on Earth,

266
00:14:10,320 --> 00:14:13,559
Speaker 1: but Baltimore is a road favorite. Then it's the Saints

267
00:14:13,559 --> 00:14:20,520
Speaker 1: in Baltimore, the Cowboys, Titans, Falcons, Brown's Bengals. We're looking

268
00:14:20,560 --> 00:14:23,760
Speaker 1: at great matchups for Derrick Henry and positive game scripts

269
00:14:24,120 --> 00:14:28,640
Speaker 1: littered throughout that stretch. I'd anticipate that whole offense getting

270
00:14:28,640 --> 00:14:31,600
Speaker 1: off to a strong start, but Henry he could be

271
00:14:31,640 --> 00:14:36,560
Speaker 1: the one who benefits most. Lastly, since we're talking about

272
00:14:36,560 --> 00:14:38,880
Speaker 1: schedule analysis here, I want to throw out some potential

273
00:14:38,920 --> 00:14:41,920
Speaker 1: defensive streaming options to kick off your season. The target

274
00:14:41,960 --> 00:14:45,480
Speaker 1: in your drafts, the Chargers should be your go to.

275
00:14:45,960 --> 00:14:48,240
Speaker 1: They get Arizona in Week one, and then they get

276
00:14:48,320 --> 00:14:51,200
Speaker 1: Vegas in week two. It doesn't get much better than that.

277
00:14:52,200 --> 00:14:55,120
Speaker 1: There really aren't many other teams with totally clean week

278
00:14:55,200 --> 00:14:59,000
Speaker 1: one and two matchups. Green Bay gets Minnesota, probably Kyler

279
00:14:59,080 --> 00:15:01,360
Speaker 1: Murray in Week one, but that's still more of like

280
00:15:01,400 --> 00:15:05,040
Speaker 1: a whatever type of matchup it's in Minnesota. Just know

281
00:15:05,080 --> 00:15:07,520
Speaker 1: that Green Bay in week two they get the Jets.

282
00:15:08,360 --> 00:15:10,960
Speaker 1: But outside the Chargers, if you're looking for a defensive

283
00:15:10,960 --> 00:15:14,640
Speaker 1: streamer for weeks one and two, for me, it's probably Philadelphia.

284
00:15:15,280 --> 00:15:18,040
Speaker 1: They get Washington in week one and then Tennessee in

285
00:15:18,080 --> 00:15:21,440
Speaker 1: week two. And if you're only looking at week one,

286
00:15:21,960 --> 00:15:25,080
Speaker 1: the Jags are seven and a half point favorites against

287
00:15:25,080 --> 00:15:28,640
Speaker 1: Cleveland and it's in Jacksonville. So that's my Week one

288
00:15:28,720 --> 00:15:30,720
Speaker 1: streaming choice in a game with just a forty and

289
00:15:30,760 --> 00:15:33,760
Speaker 1: a half point total. But that's it. Like I said,

290
00:15:33,760 --> 00:15:36,240
Speaker 1: the early season schedule analysis, it's not the end all,

291
00:15:36,640 --> 00:15:39,120
Speaker 1: but it definitely can be used to help settle tie breakers,

292
00:15:39,480 --> 00:15:41,320
Speaker 1: and to be honest, it can be used to help

293
00:15:41,400 --> 00:15:44,840
Speaker 1: us understand what narratives might be floating out there once

294
00:15:44,840 --> 00:15:47,400
Speaker 1: we're in the thick of it, and once these teams

295
00:15:47,440 --> 00:15:50,240
Speaker 1: have played a few games. We have to find as

296
00:15:50,240 --> 00:15:53,800
Speaker 1: many edges as we can in schedule analysis. It's one

297
00:15:53,840 --> 00:15:56,920
Speaker 1: of those edges. That's it for today's show, though, thanks

298
00:15:56,960 --> 00:15:59,520
Speaker 1: Solvy for listening. If yet subscribe to the Late Round

299
00:15:59,520 --> 00:16:02,320
Speaker 1: Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are brush searching for

300
00:16:02,360 --> 00:16:04,840
Speaker 1: it pretty much anywhere podcast can be found, and don't

301
00:16:04,840 --> 00:16:06,640
Speaker 1: forget to follow me on Twitter. And on Blue Sky

302
00:16:07,040 --> 00:16:10,160
Speaker 1: at Late Round QB, thanks for listening everyone. We got

303
00:16:10,160 --> 00:16:11,920
Speaker 1: Becoming a Best ball bro later in the week. We

304
00:16:12,000 --> 00:16:14,640
Speaker 1: got the Late Round Fantasy Football show later in the week,

305
00:16:14,760 --> 00:16:16,360
Speaker 1: and then at the end of the week you get

306
00:16:16,360 --> 00:16:18,960
Speaker 1: a mailback episode. I'll catch you guys soon