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Speaker 3: The dal Jones last week kind of covered a little bit,
Speaker 3: but last week if it was a down week for
Speaker 3: stocks last week, So is this an early warning sign
Speaker 3: of what could potentially happen in twenty twenty five with
Speaker 3: the market.
Speaker 1: Nope, I'm gonna make this very simple, very short. The
Speaker 1: Christmas trade is over. People have taken profits. People have
Speaker 1: been up all year, some tax loss harvesting, but also
Speaker 1: too with the FOMC announcement that had an effect. Also,
Speaker 1: futures expirations happened that Friday as well. So mark off
Speaker 1: every month when expiration begins to happen. But for those
Speaker 1: of you who are like, hey, the market is Cumberland.
Speaker 1: The market's been doing great all year, one of the
Speaker 1: best years that I can remember as an investor, So
Speaker 1: I think this is a sign of the opposite of
Speaker 1: what's going to happen in twenty twenty five. But the
Speaker 1: Christmas rally trade as we've known that maybe how it
Speaker 1: was ten years ago traditionally is over, and not as
Speaker 1: many people are into the market. And lastly, there's no
Speaker 1: asymmetric risk to the upside. A great place to buy
Speaker 1: that's going to give me an amazing return in twelve
Speaker 1: to thirteen months. So that's why the market slid a
Speaker 1: little bit so, But also to a homework assignment that
Speaker 1: I put on IG right down what the point totals
Speaker 1: are every day and if you were trading twenty nineteen,
Speaker 1: twenty eighteen off the FMC announcement was very similar to
Speaker 1: what happened this past Friday. So if you know what
Speaker 1: the point totals are positive and negative for each day,
Speaker 1: you can go through your calendar like your own farmer's
Speaker 1: almanac for in the market and have an expectation for
Speaker 1: what the market should do.
Speaker 2: Yeah, this is this is easy. No, like you said,
Speaker 2: when Palell spoke, we saw a pulled back, and we
Speaker 2: kind of alluded to it last week when we were
Speaker 2: talking about rate cuts, how they've kind of been quiet
Speaker 2: about how many they were going to be in twenty
Speaker 2: twenty five. There's now rumors that there's only going to
Speaker 2: be two, which is a decrease from what we had
Speaker 2: in twenty twenty four. Well slight pulled back, but it
Speaker 2: always I mean, and I'm glad that that crashed out
Speaker 2: to Chris Johnson in that episode of y'all didn't check
Speaker 2: it out, and he said, look, man, people are going
Speaker 2: to take profit. In fact, if things don't sell off,
Speaker 2: there won't be new buyers to come in to add
Speaker 2: liquidity to a position. And so you kind of saw
Speaker 2: that when Powell spoke. But also right we talked about
Speaker 2: quadruple witching. We talked about when it happens. Quadruple witching
Speaker 2: happened on Friday, and so the end when we're talking
Speaker 2: about options contracts, when we talk about futures contracts, they
Speaker 2: expire on the third Thursday of the last month of
Speaker 2: the quarter, right, So it's four quarters each year. So
Speaker 2: we have March, we got June, you got September, and
Speaker 2: you got December. The third Friday of those months is
Speaker 2: quadruple witching when most contracts expire. And so you take
Speaker 2: that with the amount of increase that the NASACK has had,
Speaker 2: I think up thirty percent this year, thirty two percent.
Speaker 1: Amazing, which is ridiculous.
Speaker 2: Because it was thirty two percent last year, which is like,
Speaker 2: you don't really see that, and Pe up twenty six percent,
Speaker 2: which is absolutely incredible. The doubt itself is up twenty
Speaker 2: five percent. These are ridiculously impressive years.
Speaker 1: Right.
Speaker 2: To have them back to back is incredible. To have
Speaker 2: them as a single event would be incredible. To have
Speaker 2: them back to back is just absolutely incredible. So, I mean,
Speaker 2: you're going to see so lovely into twenty twenty five.
Speaker 2: But does that mean is it an indication of what
Speaker 2: twenty twenty five is gonna look like. No, I think
Speaker 2: we still see growth. I don't know if it's in
Speaker 2: the twenties. I don't know if it's in twenties, but
Speaker 2: I think we could be okay with anywhere between eleven
Speaker 2: to fifteen percent growth in all the major industries. I'll
Speaker 2: be interested to see that at least for the first
Speaker 2: half of the year. We'll see what happened in the
Speaker 2: second half. For the first half of the year for sure. Yeah,
Speaker 2: so I'm not too worried about twenty twenty five.
Speaker 1: Yeah, don't me worried on put hold for a long
Speaker 1: period of time, and I'm gonna I know not the
Speaker 1: answer everyone once, but if you hold for a long
Speaker 1: period of time, these worries go away. Think about it.
Speaker 1: When we first started to show, the expectation for the
Speaker 1: indexes were seven to twelve percent. Right now, you could
Speaker 1: double your money in four years just by holding two
Speaker 1: Tech two and Dexo stress. Hold for the long term. Please,
Speaker 1: I think it's also broke.
Speaker 3: It's also for to think about cycles. So shout out
Speaker 3: to Josh Brown when he came on a long time ago.
Speaker 3: We talked about and we talked about this for a
Speaker 3: few other people as far as the political cycle h
Speaker 3: what it had done for market. So traditionally, usually in
Speaker 3: political cycles, the first year of a presidency is relatively weak.
Speaker 3: The second year is the most volatile to the downside,
Speaker 3: the third year is the strongest, and the fourth year
Speaker 3: is strong as well. It's good, but not as strong
Speaker 3: as third year, And that's kind of exactly what's happened
Speaker 3: with Joe Biden. Remember when we had that bear market
Speaker 3: that was in year two of his presidency, and then
Speaker 3: yet three of his presidencies when stocks went crazy, and
Speaker 3: then year four of the presidency this year with stocks
Speaker 3: they want, they didn't good as well. So if if
Speaker 3: that's an indicator, then stocks would be it'll be a
Speaker 3: weaker year for stocks. But of course it's an unprecedented
Speaker 3: situation with Donald Trump coming in and so many new
Speaker 3: changes that's going to happen on a political landscape that
Speaker 3: that could potentially you know, not carry suit, but traditionally
Speaker 3: that has happened. That's that's what usually happens with the situation,
Speaker 3: is that the first year of a presidency's the first
Speaker 3: year of a president's term is a weaker year for
Speaker 3: the stock market. That's just the historical if that means
Speaker 3: anything to you.
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