WEBVTT - Is the Market Slump a Sign for 2025?

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<v Speaker 2>This episode is brought to you by P and C Bank,

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<v Speaker 3>The dal Jones last week kind of covered a little bit,

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<v Speaker 3>but last week if it was a down week for

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<v Speaker 3>stocks last week, So is this an early warning sign

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<v Speaker 3>of what could potentially happen in twenty twenty five with

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<v Speaker 3>the market.

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<v Speaker 1>Nope, I'm gonna make this very simple, very short. The

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<v Speaker 1>Christmas trade is over. People have taken profits. People have

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<v Speaker 1>been up all year, some tax loss harvesting, but also

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<v Speaker 1>too with the FOMC announcement that had an effect. Also,

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<v Speaker 1>futures expirations happened that Friday as well. So mark off

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<v Speaker 1>every month when expiration begins to happen. But for those

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<v Speaker 1>of you who are like, hey, the market is Cumberland.

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<v Speaker 1>The market's been doing great all year, one of the

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<v Speaker 1>best years that I can remember as an investor, So

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<v Speaker 1>I think this is a sign of the opposite of

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<v Speaker 1>what's going to happen in twenty twenty five. But the

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<v Speaker 1>Christmas rally trade as we've known that maybe how it

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<v Speaker 1>was ten years ago traditionally is over, and not as

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<v Speaker 1>many people are into the market. And lastly, there's no

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<v Speaker 1>asymmetric risk to the upside. A great place to buy

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<v Speaker 1>that's going to give me an amazing return in twelve

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<v Speaker 1>to thirteen months. So that's why the market slid a

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<v Speaker 1>little bit so, But also to a homework assignment that

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<v Speaker 1>I put on IG right down what the point totals

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<v Speaker 1>are every day and if you were trading twenty nineteen,

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<v Speaker 1>twenty eighteen off the FMC announcement was very similar to

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<v Speaker 1>what happened this past Friday. So if you know what

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<v Speaker 1>the point totals are positive and negative for each day,

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<v Speaker 1>you can go through your calendar like your own farmer's

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<v Speaker 1>almanac for in the market and have an expectation for

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<v Speaker 1>what the market should do.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, this is this is easy. No, like you said,

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<v Speaker 2>when Palell spoke, we saw a pulled back, and we

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<v Speaker 2>kind of alluded to it last week when we were

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<v Speaker 2>talking about rate cuts, how they've kind of been quiet

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<v Speaker 2>about how many they were going to be in twenty

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<v Speaker 2>twenty five. There's now rumors that there's only going to

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<v Speaker 2>be two, which is a decrease from what we had

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<v Speaker 2>in twenty twenty four. Well slight pulled back, but it

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<v Speaker 2>always I mean, and I'm glad that that crashed out

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<v Speaker 2>to Chris Johnson in that episode of y'all didn't check

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<v Speaker 2>it out, and he said, look, man, people are going

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<v Speaker 2>to take profit. In fact, if things don't sell off,

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<v Speaker 2>there won't be new buyers to come in to add

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<v Speaker 2>liquidity to a position. And so you kind of saw

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<v Speaker 2>that when Powell spoke. But also right we talked about

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<v Speaker 2>quadruple witching. We talked about when it happens. Quadruple witching

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<v Speaker 2>happened on Friday, and so the end when we're talking

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<v Speaker 2>about options contracts, when we talk about futures contracts, they

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<v Speaker 2>expire on the third Thursday of the last month of

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<v Speaker 2>the quarter, right, So it's four quarters each year. So

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<v Speaker 2>we have March, we got June, you got September, and

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<v Speaker 2>you got December. The third Friday of those months is

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<v Speaker 2>quadruple witching when most contracts expire. And so you take

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<v Speaker 2>that with the amount of increase that the NASACK has had,

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<v Speaker 2>I think up thirty percent this year, thirty two percent.

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<v Speaker 1>Amazing, which is ridiculous.

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<v Speaker 2>Because it was thirty two percent last year, which is like,

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<v Speaker 2>you don't really see that, and Pe up twenty six percent,

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<v Speaker 2>which is absolutely incredible. The doubt itself is up twenty

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<v Speaker 2>five percent. These are ridiculously impressive years.

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<v Speaker 1>Right.

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<v Speaker 2>To have them back to back is incredible. To have

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<v Speaker 2>them as a single event would be incredible. To have

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<v Speaker 2>them back to back is just absolutely incredible. So, I mean,

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<v Speaker 2>you're going to see so lovely into twenty twenty five.

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<v Speaker 2>But does that mean is it an indication of what

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<v Speaker 2>twenty twenty five is gonna look like. No, I think

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<v Speaker 2>we still see growth. I don't know if it's in

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<v Speaker 2>the twenties. I don't know if it's in twenties, but

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<v Speaker 2>I think we could be okay with anywhere between eleven

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<v Speaker 2>to fifteen percent growth in all the major industries. I'll

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<v Speaker 2>be interested to see that at least for the first

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<v Speaker 2>half of the year. We'll see what happened in the

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<v Speaker 2>second half. For the first half of the year for sure. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 2>so I'm not too worried about twenty twenty five.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, don't me worried on put hold for a long

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<v Speaker 1>period of time, and I'm gonna I know not the

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<v Speaker 1>answer everyone once, but if you hold for a long

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<v Speaker 1>period of time, these worries go away. Think about it.

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<v Speaker 1>When we first started to show, the expectation for the

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<v Speaker 1>indexes were seven to twelve percent. Right now, you could

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<v Speaker 1>double your money in four years just by holding two

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<v Speaker 1>Tech two and Dexo stress. Hold for the long term. Please,

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<v Speaker 1>I think it's also broke.

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<v Speaker 3>It's also for to think about cycles. So shout out

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<v Speaker 3>to Josh Brown when he came on a long time ago.

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<v Speaker 3>We talked about and we talked about this for a

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<v Speaker 3>few other people as far as the political cycle h

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<v Speaker 3>what it had done for market. So traditionally, usually in

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<v Speaker 3>political cycles, the first year of a presidency is relatively weak.

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<v Speaker 3>The second year is the most volatile to the downside,

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<v Speaker 3>the third year is the strongest, and the fourth year

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<v Speaker 3>is strong as well. It's good, but not as strong

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<v Speaker 3>as third year, And that's kind of exactly what's happened

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<v Speaker 3>with Joe Biden. Remember when we had that bear market

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<v Speaker 3>that was in year two of his presidency, and then

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<v Speaker 3>yet three of his presidencies when stocks went crazy, and

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<v Speaker 3>then year four of the presidency this year with stocks

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<v Speaker 3>they want, they didn't good as well. So if if

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<v Speaker 3>that's an indicator, then stocks would be it'll be a

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<v Speaker 3>weaker year for stocks. But of course it's an unprecedented

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<v Speaker 3>situation with Donald Trump coming in and so many new

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<v Speaker 3>changes that's going to happen on a political landscape that

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<v Speaker 3>that could potentially you know, not carry suit, but traditionally

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<v Speaker 3>that has happened. That's that's what usually happens with the situation,

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<v Speaker 3>is that the first year of a presidency's the first

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<v Speaker 3>year of a president's term is a weaker year for

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<v Speaker 3>the stock market. That's just the historical if that means

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<v Speaker 3>anything to you.

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<v Speaker 4>An illegal alien from Guatemala charged with raping a child

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<v Speaker 4>in Massachusetts. An MS thirteen gang member from Al Salvador

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<v Speaker 4>accused of murdering a Texas man of Venezuelan charged with

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<v Speaker 4>filming and selling child pornograph in Michigan. These are just

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<v Speaker 4>some of the heinous migrant criminals caught because of President

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<v Speaker 4>Donald J. Trump's leadership. I'm Christy Noman, the United States

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<v Speaker 4>Secretary of Homeland Security. Under President Trump, attempted illegal border

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<v Speaker 4>crossings are at the lowest levels ever recorded, and over

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<v Speaker 4>are here illegally, your next you will be fine nearly

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<v Speaker 4>one thousand dollars a day, imprisoned, and deported, you will

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<v Speaker 4>Do what's right. Leave now. Under President Trump, America's laws,

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<v Speaker 4>border and families will be protected.

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<v Speaker 2>Sponsored by the United States Department of Homeland Security.