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Speaker 1: Earners.

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Speaker 2: This episode is brought to you by P and C Bank,

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Speaker 2: a lot of people think podcasts about work are boring,

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Speaker 2: and sure they definitely can be, but understanding of professional's

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Speaker 2: routine shows us how they achieve their success little by little,

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Speaker 2: day after day. It's like banking with P and C Bank.

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Speaker 2: It might seem boring to save, plan and make calculated

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Speaker 2: decisions with your bank, but keeping your money boring is

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Speaker 2: what helps you live or more happily fulfilled life. P

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Speaker 2: and C Bank Brilliantly Boring since eighteen sixty five. Brilliantly

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Speaker 2: the PNC Financial Service Group, Inc. P and C Bank

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Speaker 2: National Association Member FDIC.

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Speaker 3: The dal Jones last week kind of covered a little bit,

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Speaker 3: but last week if it was a down week for

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Speaker 3: stocks last week, So is this an early warning sign

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Speaker 3: of what could potentially happen in twenty twenty five with

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Speaker 3: the market.

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Speaker 1: Nope, I'm gonna make this very simple, very short. The

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Speaker 1: Christmas trade is over. People have taken profits. People have

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Speaker 1: been up all year, some tax loss harvesting, but also

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Speaker 1: too with the FOMC announcement that had an effect. Also,

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Speaker 1: futures expirations happened that Friday as well. So mark off

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Speaker 1: every month when expiration begins to happen. But for those

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Speaker 1: of you who are like, hey, the market is Cumberland.

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Speaker 1: The market's been doing great all year, one of the

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Speaker 1: best years that I can remember as an investor, So

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Speaker 1: I think this is a sign of the opposite of

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Speaker 1: what's going to happen in twenty twenty five. But the

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Speaker 1: Christmas rally trade as we've known that maybe how it

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Speaker 1: was ten years ago traditionally is over, and not as

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Speaker 1: many people are into the market. And lastly, there's no

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Speaker 1: asymmetric risk to the upside. A great place to buy

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Speaker 1: that's going to give me an amazing return in twelve

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Speaker 1: to thirteen months. So that's why the market slid a

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Speaker 1: little bit so, But also to a homework assignment that

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Speaker 1: I put on IG right down what the point totals

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Speaker 1: are every day and if you were trading twenty nineteen,

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Speaker 1: twenty eighteen off the FMC announcement was very similar to

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Speaker 1: what happened this past Friday. So if you know what

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Speaker 1: the point totals are positive and negative for each day,

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Speaker 1: you can go through your calendar like your own farmer's

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Speaker 1: almanac for in the market and have an expectation for

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Speaker 1: what the market should do.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, this is this is easy. No, like you said,

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Speaker 2: when Palell spoke, we saw a pulled back, and we

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Speaker 2: kind of alluded to it last week when we were

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Speaker 2: talking about rate cuts, how they've kind of been quiet

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Speaker 2: about how many they were going to be in twenty

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Speaker 2: twenty five. There's now rumors that there's only going to

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Speaker 2: be two, which is a decrease from what we had

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Speaker 2: in twenty twenty four. Well slight pulled back, but it

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Speaker 2: always I mean, and I'm glad that that crashed out

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Speaker 2: to Chris Johnson in that episode of y'all didn't check

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Speaker 2: it out, and he said, look, man, people are going

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Speaker 2: to take profit. In fact, if things don't sell off,

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Speaker 2: there won't be new buyers to come in to add

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Speaker 2: liquidity to a position. And so you kind of saw

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Speaker 2: that when Powell spoke. But also right we talked about

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Speaker 2: quadruple witching. We talked about when it happens. Quadruple witching

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Speaker 2: happened on Friday, and so the end when we're talking

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Speaker 2: about options contracts, when we talk about futures contracts, they

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Speaker 2: expire on the third Thursday of the last month of

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Speaker 2: the quarter, right, So it's four quarters each year. So

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Speaker 2: we have March, we got June, you got September, and

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Speaker 2: you got December. The third Friday of those months is

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Speaker 2: quadruple witching when most contracts expire. And so you take

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Speaker 2: that with the amount of increase that the NASACK has had,

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Speaker 2: I think up thirty percent this year, thirty two percent.

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Speaker 1: Amazing, which is ridiculous.

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Speaker 2: Because it was thirty two percent last year, which is like,

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Speaker 2: you don't really see that, and Pe up twenty six percent,

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Speaker 2: which is absolutely incredible. The doubt itself is up twenty

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Speaker 2: five percent. These are ridiculously impressive years.

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Speaker 1: Right.

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Speaker 2: To have them back to back is incredible. To have

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Speaker 2: them as a single event would be incredible. To have

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Speaker 2: them back to back is just absolutely incredible. So, I mean,

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Speaker 2: you're going to see so lovely into twenty twenty five.

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Speaker 2: But does that mean is it an indication of what

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Speaker 2: twenty twenty five is gonna look like. No, I think

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Speaker 2: we still see growth. I don't know if it's in

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Speaker 2: the twenties. I don't know if it's in twenties, but

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Speaker 2: I think we could be okay with anywhere between eleven

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Speaker 2: to fifteen percent growth in all the major industries. I'll

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Speaker 2: be interested to see that at least for the first

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Speaker 2: half of the year. We'll see what happened in the

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Speaker 2: second half. For the first half of the year for sure. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: so I'm not too worried about twenty twenty five.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, don't me worried on put hold for a long

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Speaker 1: period of time, and I'm gonna I know not the

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Speaker 1: answer everyone once, but if you hold for a long

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Speaker 1: period of time, these worries go away. Think about it.

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Speaker 1: When we first started to show, the expectation for the

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Speaker 1: indexes were seven to twelve percent. Right now, you could

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Speaker 1: double your money in four years just by holding two

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Speaker 1: Tech two and Dexo stress. Hold for the long term. Please,

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Speaker 1: I think it's also broke.

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Speaker 3: It's also for to think about cycles. So shout out

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Speaker 3: to Josh Brown when he came on a long time ago.

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Speaker 3: We talked about and we talked about this for a

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Speaker 3: few other people as far as the political cycle h

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Speaker 3: what it had done for market. So traditionally, usually in

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Speaker 3: political cycles, the first year of a presidency is relatively weak.

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Speaker 3: The second year is the most volatile to the downside,

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Speaker 3: the third year is the strongest, and the fourth year

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Speaker 3: is strong as well. It's good, but not as strong

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Speaker 3: as third year, And that's kind of exactly what's happened

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Speaker 3: with Joe Biden. Remember when we had that bear market

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Speaker 3: that was in year two of his presidency, and then

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Speaker 3: yet three of his presidencies when stocks went crazy, and

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Speaker 3: then year four of the presidency this year with stocks

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Speaker 3: they want, they didn't good as well. So if if

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Speaker 3: that's an indicator, then stocks would be it'll be a

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Speaker 3: weaker year for stocks. But of course it's an unprecedented

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Speaker 3: situation with Donald Trump coming in and so many new

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Speaker 3: changes that's going to happen on a political landscape that

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Speaker 3: that could potentially you know, not carry suit, but traditionally

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Speaker 3: that has happened. That's that's what usually happens with the situation,

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Speaker 3: is that the first year of a presidency's the first

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Speaker 3: year of a president's term is a weaker year for

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Speaker 3: the stock market. That's just the historical if that means

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Speaker 3: anything to you.

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Speaker 4: An illegal alien from Guatemala charged with raping a child

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Speaker 4: in Massachusetts. An MS thirteen gang member from Al Salvador

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Speaker 4: accused of murdering a Texas man of Venezuelan charged with

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Speaker 4: filming and selling child pornograph in Michigan. These are just

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Speaker 4: some of the heinous migrant criminals caught because of President

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Speaker 4: Donald J. Trump's leadership. I'm Christy Noman, the United States

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Speaker 4: Secretary of Homeland Security. Under President Trump, attempted illegal border

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Speaker 4: crossings are at the lowest levels ever recorded, and over

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Speaker 4: one hundred thousand illegal aliens have been arrested. If you

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Speaker 4: are here illegally, your next you will be fine nearly

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Speaker 4: one thousand dollars a day, imprisoned, and deported, you will

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Speaker 4: never return. But if you register using our CBP home

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Speaker 4: app and leave now, you could be allowed to return legally.

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Speaker 4: Do what's right. Leave now. Under President Trump, America's laws,

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Speaker 4: border and families will be protected.

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Speaker 2: Sponsored by the United States Department of Homeland Security.