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Speaker 1: What two three bikes down the middle of the family.

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Speaker 2: Hello's football down in the one yard line?

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Speaker 1: How about that?

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Speaker 2: That is the ultimate kabash.

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Speaker 1: Man.

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Speaker 3: We are underway.

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Speaker 2: Hello everyone, Welcome back to another episode of the Action

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Speaker 2: Network NFL Podcast. I'm Atthew Friedman, the editor in chief

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Speaker 2: of Fantasy Labs, and joining me are Sean Corner and

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Speaker 2: Chris Raybond. The Menagerie of Three is back guys. Sean

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Speaker 2: is the Action Network director of Predictive Analytics, one of

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Speaker 2: the top end season fantasy for his rankers for the

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Speaker 2: past half decade. Chris is a senior editor and analyst

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Speaker 2: at the Action Network and a co host of the

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Speaker 2: Action Network show on Sirius X and Fantasy Radio at

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Speaker 2: nine a m. Eastern. You can follow them in the

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Speaker 2: Action Network app at the Underscore Oddsmaker and Chris. Raymond

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Speaker 2: used the app to get real time odds and track

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Speaker 2: your bets for free. Raymond, you held down the podcast

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Speaker 2: last week. You and Ian Hartitz ran through the new

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Speaker 2: play callers for each NFL team. Everyone should be sure

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Speaker 2: to check out that episode. Raymond, how is he going?

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Speaker 3: It is going well.

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Speaker 4: Just started co hosting the Serious show as you mentioned

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Speaker 4: Wednesday through Friday, so check me out there. But yeah,

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Speaker 4: it was a good pod last week with with Ian

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Speaker 4: Sharp guy, hard worker, and I think we had some

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Speaker 4: pretty valuable takes, so I would encourage people to go

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Speaker 4: back and listen.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it was good to listen to it. And Sean,

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Speaker 2: you and I took last week off from the podcast,

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Speaker 2: it was glorious. What did you do with your time off?

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Speaker 5: Well, I've been developing a w NBA model and sharpening

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Speaker 5: up our picture Strikeout props model, so I've been occupied

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Speaker 5: with other sports. Glad to get back on talking about

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Speaker 5: fants football. I'm excited about this pod. The prop pods

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Speaker 5: always getting pumped up.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, there will be some squeaky chair Okay, as Sean

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Speaker 2: alluded to right there. For this episode, we are doing

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Speaker 2: some props. We are previewing our official twenty nineteen NFL

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Speaker 2: player projections which will power our customizable fantasy football cheat

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Speaker 2: sheet and that will be available for Action Network subscribers

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Speaker 2: on July first, which is just a couple of weeks away.

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Speaker 2: And this show we are previewing our NFC player projections.

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Speaker 2: Next to next episode we will run through the AFC

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Speaker 2: and then after that we will be into the month

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Speaker 2: of July and we will do our epic position by

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Speaker 2: position podcast breakdowns. We are bringing back the skull game

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Speaker 2: props for each team. Sean, the odds maker, is going

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Speaker 2: to give us one to two player props, which raybaon

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Speaker 2: and I will presumably sharpen with our action. Sean kick

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Speaker 2: us off. Let's get going, all right.

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Speaker 5: So we're gonna start off in the NFC East with

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Speaker 5: the Cowboys, Freedman's favorite team, and we're gonna do Ezekiel

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Speaker 5: Elliott's total rushing and receiving touchdowns. He's only rush or

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Speaker 5: he's only scored nine touch downs. He used to lost

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Speaker 5: two seasons after scoring sixteen his rookie season, so I

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Speaker 5: thought this would be a good one to cover. I'm

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Speaker 5: setting his overrunner this year at eleven and a half.

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Speaker 2: Over Cowboys forever. Let's go.

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Speaker 1: I'm going under.

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Speaker 4: I have him at eight right now, and part of

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Speaker 4: that is because I have his games played projection at thirteen.

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Speaker 4: That's essentially what he's averaged throughout his first three years

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Speaker 4: in the league because he did incur a suspension. However,

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Speaker 4: running backs do tend to miss about two to three

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Speaker 4: games per year on average, and being that there is

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Speaker 4: a little bit of danger of a suspension, and touchdowns

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Speaker 4: are just notoriously difficult to project and tend to fluctuate

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Speaker 4: a lot year to year. I think he has a

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Speaker 4: ton of touchdown upside, but I'm setting him at eight

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Speaker 4: for now, I guess.

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Speaker 1: To a little bit of a conservative projection.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm going way over. I don't even want to

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Speaker 2: say how over I'm going on this because it's embarrassing.

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Speaker 2: But he's underperformed the last two years on a per

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Speaker 2: touch in per yard basis, so I think we're going

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Speaker 2: to see some pretty significant progression this year.

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Speaker 1: He shuret Freeman.

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Speaker 4: I mean he's getting older. It's his fourth year in

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Speaker 4: the league. I mean, I know that's ancient for you.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, that's true. That is pretty old. I think the

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Speaker 2: one thing that could help a little bit is the

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Speaker 2: return of the center to the Cowboys offensive line, so

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Speaker 2: hopefully they will be a little more efficient, and I

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Speaker 2: think that could potentially turn it into some more scoring opportunities.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I'm glad I was able to split the line here.

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Speaker 5: I figured, since Raybaun was voting for Zeke Elliott's game,

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Speaker 5: games played to be the thought that he'd probably under

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Speaker 5: because he had something on his mind. But yeah, I

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Speaker 5: kind of agree with Freeman here. You know, Dak, he

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Speaker 5: has to compete with Dak around the goal line for touchdowns.

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Speaker 5: Dak had five rushing touchdowns inside the ten last year,

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Speaker 5: when he only had two back in twenty seventeen. So

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Speaker 5: I've been anticipating a little bit of positive aggression for

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Speaker 5: Zeke as far as rushing touchdowns, and then you know,

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Speaker 5: being more involved in the passing game should see him

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Speaker 5: closer to the two to three receiving touchdowns. So I

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Speaker 5: have eleven and a half of leaning towards the over here.

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Speaker 1: I actually do have an interesting question on that I've heard.

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Speaker 4: I think Ben Gretch was writing about this, and I've

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Speaker 4: heard some some theories that perhaps the Cowboys are starting

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Speaker 4: to realize that they may want to scale back Zeke

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Speaker 4: a little bit, and if that were to happen, it

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Speaker 4: would be in the passing game. They do have a

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Speaker 4: little bit more in the short area game now with

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Speaker 4: Cob and Witten back. Do you do you see his

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Speaker 4: passing game involvement kind of staying at the level it

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Speaker 4: was last season or kind of regressing a little bit

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Speaker 4: to what it was the first two years of his career.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I think I have him regressing off a last year.

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Speaker 5: I don't think he's gonna match seventy seven receptions, so

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Speaker 5: but I don't think he's going to go back to

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Speaker 5: let's see, you know, around forty receptions. I haven't closer

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Speaker 5: to sixty actually, so yeah, sort of in between. But

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Speaker 5: you know more, they probably want to utize them more

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Speaker 5: of the passing game than they have the p So

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Speaker 5: I just only have have him regressing a little bit.

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Speaker 2: This year.

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Speaker 1: He had his chair creaking.

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Speaker 2: Sean, you're already in mid season. Let's let's go to

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Speaker 2: the next one. We have the Giants, all.

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Speaker 5: Right, so we got a couple of Daniel Jones props.

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Speaker 5: So first off, let's go with how many games will

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Speaker 5: he start? I have the overrunner right now at four

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Speaker 5: and a half.

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Speaker 1: I'm going over Sean.

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Speaker 4: You and I got to meet up in LA and

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Speaker 4: we discussed this. Justin Fan got tired of us discussing it,

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Speaker 4: so he just I think forced us to make a

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Speaker 4: bet on it the Action Networks Justin Fan.

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Speaker 1: That is, I have him at eight right now.

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Speaker 4: Looking back at the last five years, quarterbacks drafted in

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Speaker 4: the first round, but not with the top two overall picks,

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Speaker 4: which I think tend to be thought of in a

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Speaker 4: little different.

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Speaker 1: Light, a little better light than a guy like Daniel Jones.

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Speaker 4: So I kind of excluded them. But they're averaging eight

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Speaker 4: starts to MEETI and his nine. There's only it's only

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Speaker 4: a ten quarterback sample size, so a little bit small.

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Speaker 4: But I do think that they drafted this guy high.

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Speaker 4: And remember he looks like Eli Manning. He talks like

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Speaker 4: Eui Manning the Giants. If they're going to put anyone

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Speaker 4: in there that's not Eui Manning's gonna it's gonna be him.

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Speaker 1: So I think this is.

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Speaker 4: Finally the year that Eui maybe doesn't make the majority

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Speaker 4: of the studes.

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Speaker 2: Sean, what is this line again? Did you say four

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Speaker 2: four and a half? Four and a half? Yeah, I

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Speaker 2: bet the under on this at three and a half,

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Speaker 2: so I will easily take us at four and a

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Speaker 2: half given what Raybond said. Totally correct on the analysis,

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Speaker 2: but I've also I mean, I wrote an article on

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Speaker 2: the Action Network about this. I looked at, I believe,

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Speaker 2: the last twenty years of quarterbacks and looked at guys

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Speaker 2: drafted to teams within the first round, teams that already

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Speaker 2: had established quarterbacks on their roster, and those guys averaged

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Speaker 2: sorry let me rephrase that. On their median was two

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Speaker 2: point eight games played, and I think that's a pretty

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Speaker 2: fair number. I could see it going up to three,

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Speaker 2: maybe four. But yeah, I'm going to take de under

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Speaker 2: on this.

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Speaker 4: I think the one thing to worry about, and I

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Speaker 4: wrote extensively about this as well on the Action Network

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Speaker 4: a few weeks ago, was just if my one worry

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Speaker 4: is John Mara and just the ownership, because they've been

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Speaker 4: really pro ELI, and I think even the move they

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Speaker 4: made in the offseason, you know, Beckham going and then

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Speaker 4: bringing in Golden Tate essentially just another guy that could

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Speaker 4: gobble up about ninety catches a year and won't complain

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Speaker 4: about Eli not throwing deep because everything Tate catches is.

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Speaker 1: You know, four or five yards from the line of scrimmage.

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Speaker 4: So Eli statistically may not look bad because even last

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Speaker 4: year sixty six percent completion rate highest of his career,

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Speaker 4: one point nine percent interception rate lowest of his career,

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Speaker 4: his statistics may not look quite as bad as he

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Speaker 4: really is. And that's my only worry about how long

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Speaker 4: it will take DJ to get in there. But I

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Speaker 4: mean the fact that they're essentially the same person.

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Speaker 2: I think this is the year I misspoke. Actually just

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Speaker 2: want to correct myself on this. The mean is two

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Speaker 2: point eight games played. The median is point five games played.

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Speaker 2: So the average is two point eight games. But if

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Speaker 2: you were to split the sample in half and have

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Speaker 2: fifty percent on one side fifty percent on another side,

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Speaker 2: the dividing line is point five games played.

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Speaker 5: Essentially, these props are trying to guess the media in

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Speaker 5: so we're trying to predict what's going to happen. Fifty

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Speaker 5: percent of the time it's going to go over, fifty

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Speaker 5: percent of the time it's going to under. So yeah,

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Speaker 5: four and a half is pretty high. But I agree

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Speaker 5: with kind of what Raybahon's saying, and they've been kind

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Speaker 5: of hinting, like, you know, Sherman's kind of putting his

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Speaker 5: hands up saying, we'll see what happens on who's the

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Speaker 5: Week one starter? So his stock is definitely going up

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Speaker 5: on the over here.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, so we.

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Speaker 5: Add another prop for Daniel Jones, so when he does

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Speaker 5: make his first career start, assuming it's this year, I

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Speaker 5: wanted to see what you guys saw on his rushing

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Speaker 5: total project for that game should be And right now

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Speaker 5: I don't feel great about this, but right now I

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Speaker 5: have it set at twenty eight and a half. I

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Speaker 5: will go under over they actually have three of these.

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Speaker 3: I love it.

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Speaker 4: Where I landed. I'm at about fifteen per game right now.

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Speaker 4: Reason being. Scott Barrett wrote a article in his Metrics

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Speaker 4: That Matter series talking about translating.

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Speaker 1: Quarterbacks college rushing production to the pro.

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Speaker 4: Level, and what he found was that if you look

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Speaker 4: at their career numbers per game, rushing in college about

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Speaker 4: forty one percent attempts and yards and twenty eight percent

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Speaker 4: of the touchdown. So for Daniel Jones averaged about thirty

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Speaker 4: six yards per game over his career. That works out

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Speaker 4: to about fifteen per game in the NFL.

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Speaker 5: With colleges kind of screwed because they count sacks.

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Speaker 1: Yeah yeah, yeah, but yeah.

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Speaker 5: So this this projection is sort of going in and

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Speaker 5: trying to extrapolate that a bit and just watching a film.

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Speaker 5: He does look like a guy that's gonna pull down

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Speaker 5: and run with it, especially early on in his career.

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Speaker 5: I think, you know, especially his first career start, might

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Speaker 5: lean on the run a little bit. So that's why

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Speaker 5: I said it a little bit higher. But that's why

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Speaker 5: I'm saym a little bit skintish.

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Speaker 1: On I don't know, Sean. I mean, he's supposed to

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Speaker 1: be the next Elon Manning. E Manning. Run, He's going

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Speaker 1: to be Eli Manning. I don't think you understand it.

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Speaker 5: That's what talking about when you joined our conversation. I'm

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Speaker 5: you know, the Eli Manning. The comparisons are just a

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Speaker 5: couple of points. But he looks more like a Blake

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Speaker 5: Bortles to me, and I think that's more realistic comparison

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Speaker 5: for the actual playing style.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, I think his average game in his first

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Speaker 2: year will probably be under, but I think his first

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Speaker 2: start he will probably be a little likelier to as

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Speaker 2: Sean said, pull the ball down and take off with it.

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Speaker 3: Yep.

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Speaker 5: All right, So moving on from Daniel Jones, let's let's

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Speaker 5: go over to the goals and talk about Miles Sanders.

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Speaker 3: We're going to do over under a number.

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Speaker 5: Of touches this year, and right now I'll have the

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Speaker 5: line at one seventy and a half under.

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Speaker 3: Man, I was thinking ray bomb over there.

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Speaker 4: I'm gonna follow the Action Network's betting advice all year,

246
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Speaker 4: and they tell me to go under some going under everything,

247
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Speaker 4: but no, so I went back and looked.

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Speaker 1: At the average round running back.

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Speaker 4: You know, kind of guys in that range, what they've

250
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Speaker 4: done in year one about one hundred and thirty seven

251
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Speaker 4: touches about twelve point nine per game, so you know

252
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Speaker 4: there are some games missed in there. But again, running back,

253
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Speaker 4: I do tend to miss a couple of games per year,

254
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Speaker 4: so I'm factoring that in. I generally have by default

255
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Speaker 4: running back projection set to fourteen, and then I adjust

256
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Speaker 4: from there for individual cases. But I do think that

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Speaker 4: we're underestimating the workload that Jordan Howard could get. I

258
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Speaker 4: also think we might be underestimating the miss time that

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Speaker 4: that Sanders has incurred.

260
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Speaker 1: He's been out with a hamstring injury.

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Speaker 4: I was reading a quote from head coach Doug Peterson

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Speaker 4: and he used the words you know. He did say, hey,

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Speaker 4: we have to get him in the mix early, but

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Speaker 4: then he also mentioned a lot about mental reps, said

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Speaker 4: we're going to slowly work him in and just see

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Speaker 4: how he can help us. So just just from those quotes,

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Speaker 4: I don't think anything will be handed to him.

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Speaker 1: Peterson usually does go with a committee.

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Speaker 4: I think he's fine with the committee being two I'm

270
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Speaker 4: just not convinced that Howard isn't.

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Speaker 1: Going to be kind of a Jaii guy.

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Speaker 4: I've also heard the word change of pace thrown around around,

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Speaker 4: excuse me, with Sanders. So I think that one seventy

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Speaker 4: line is probably in the range, and it's fair.

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Speaker 1: It's a fair line.

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Speaker 4: But I'd go slightly under, especially with the potential for injuries.

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Speaker 4: He's already has a fault tissue injury.

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Speaker 2: I totally hear what Rayvaon is saying, and I think

279
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Speaker 2: it would be prudent given the hamstring injury so far,

280
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Speaker 2: to take the under, and also given that Sanders is

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Speaker 2: a rookie. But I'm going to take the over because

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Speaker 2: I do think that he is dynamic enough, and I

283
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Speaker 2: mean they invested a second rounder in him. He was

284
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Speaker 2: a five star recruit going into college. Given what he

285
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Speaker 2: did in his loan season as the lead back at

286
00:14:05,040 --> 00:14:08,800
Speaker 2: Penn State, I think it was dynamic enough to warrant

287
00:14:09,520 --> 00:14:12,400
Speaker 2: a pretty significant shot as a lead back, and I

288
00:14:12,400 --> 00:14:15,480
Speaker 2: think he will be talented enough to beat out Jordan

289
00:14:15,559 --> 00:14:18,240
Speaker 2: Howard for a lot of the touches that otherwise would

290
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Speaker 2: have gone to a guy that would have forced it

291
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Speaker 2: into more of a committee. I think it will still

292
00:14:22,720 --> 00:14:25,480
Speaker 2: be something of a committee, but I think that this

293
00:14:25,560 --> 00:14:29,680
Speaker 2: team is going to be run heavy enough for Sanders

294
00:14:29,840 --> 00:14:32,040
Speaker 2: still to eclipse that mark. And then also I think

295
00:14:32,040 --> 00:14:34,400
Speaker 2: he's going to get his touches through the passing game,

296
00:14:34,920 --> 00:14:37,080
Speaker 2: which I think could be an underrated part of this.

297
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Speaker 2: So I will take the over.

298
00:14:38,920 --> 00:14:39,160
Speaker 3: Cool.

299
00:14:39,320 --> 00:14:41,960
Speaker 5: Yeah, to be fair, I was anticipating both of you

300
00:14:42,080 --> 00:14:44,120
Speaker 5: would be on the over, so Raybon basically took all

301
00:14:44,200 --> 00:14:46,880
Speaker 5: my talking points, so I won't repeat him. But I

302
00:14:46,920 --> 00:14:49,440
Speaker 5: basically I'm in line with Raybon on this one. So

303
00:14:49,600 --> 00:14:53,280
Speaker 5: next up for the Eagles, Dallas got her total receptions

304
00:14:53,280 --> 00:14:55,680
Speaker 5: this year over under forty three and a half.

305
00:14:55,880 --> 00:14:58,680
Speaker 2: I think that is a really good line. I have

306
00:14:58,800 --> 00:15:01,440
Speaker 2: it a little bit high, so I will take the over,

307
00:15:01,640 --> 00:15:02,880
Speaker 2: but I think that's a good line.

308
00:15:03,840 --> 00:15:06,920
Speaker 1: I will go let me see what I have it at.

309
00:15:08,440 --> 00:15:13,560
Speaker 4: I will go under barely. Though barely it is a

310
00:15:13,600 --> 00:15:16,680
Speaker 4: good line. I think he has the potential to get

311
00:15:16,720 --> 00:15:19,640
Speaker 4: that amount. But what it really comes down to for

312
00:15:19,760 --> 00:15:23,600
Speaker 4: me is that just kind of comparing him to a

313
00:15:23,640 --> 00:15:26,000
Speaker 4: guy like Trey Burton, who remember, there was a lot

314
00:15:26,040 --> 00:15:29,240
Speaker 4: of hype surrounding him, especially as he kind of matured

315
00:15:29,760 --> 00:15:33,680
Speaker 4: as that second option to zach Ertz two and a

316
00:15:33,680 --> 00:15:37,200
Speaker 4: half average two point four receptions in twenty three yards

317
00:15:37,560 --> 00:15:39,760
Speaker 4: on three point six targets per game in twenty sixteen

318
00:15:39,840 --> 00:15:44,400
Speaker 4: seventeen with Peterson there, so he only played four games

319
00:15:44,400 --> 00:15:47,240
Speaker 4: without Earth. In those games, he averaged three point eight

320
00:15:47,320 --> 00:15:51,480
Speaker 4: catches forty five yards and one touchdown per game on

321
00:15:51,560 --> 00:15:52,280
Speaker 4: five point eight.

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Speaker 1: So I think.

323
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Speaker 4: If you're if you have him kind of in that

324
00:15:57,240 --> 00:16:00,480
Speaker 4: same Burton range, then he has to stay healthy and

325
00:16:00,520 --> 00:16:03,480
Speaker 4: maybe exceed that slightly. So it's definitely do it with

326
00:16:03,520 --> 00:16:06,160
Speaker 4: That's why I think the wine is really good, and

327
00:16:06,200 --> 00:16:08,320
Speaker 4: then he could exceed it, you know, if Earth gets hurt.

328
00:16:08,360 --> 00:16:10,600
Speaker 1: But right now, you know, kind of just medium.

329
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Speaker 4: Wise, i'd say he falls a tiny bit short.

330
00:16:13,200 --> 00:16:16,000
Speaker 5: Of them, yeah yeah, and is thirty three last year

331
00:16:16,080 --> 00:16:19,440
Speaker 5: feels like it's floor. Yeah, So there's a little bit

332
00:16:19,480 --> 00:16:22,120
Speaker 5: of big thing upside to his prop. Whereas you know,

333
00:16:22,600 --> 00:16:24,520
Speaker 5: we love betting the unders for a lot of these

334
00:16:24,560 --> 00:16:28,720
Speaker 5: props because you know, the meeting is typical higher, but

335
00:16:28,880 --> 00:16:31,640
Speaker 5: for people like Goddart that you know he's gonna explode

336
00:16:31,640 --> 00:16:34,640
Speaker 5: if Ertsmiths's time, there's just a little bit of hidden

337
00:16:34,720 --> 00:16:35,640
Speaker 5: upside in this prop.

338
00:16:35,680 --> 00:16:37,240
Speaker 3: So that's why I boost it just a little bit.

339
00:16:37,360 --> 00:16:39,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree. I think he has so many outs

340
00:16:39,480 --> 00:16:42,320
Speaker 2: because even if if al Sean Jeffery gets injured or

341
00:16:42,400 --> 00:16:45,840
Speaker 2: DeShawn Jackson gets injured, really any other pass catcher on

342
00:16:45,880 --> 00:16:48,680
Speaker 2: that team gets injured, I think that will result in

343
00:16:48,720 --> 00:16:51,200
Speaker 2: more targets being funneled to him. So I think there

344
00:16:51,200 --> 00:16:53,400
Speaker 2: are a lot of avenues through which he could hit

345
00:16:53,440 --> 00:16:53,960
Speaker 2: the over.

346
00:16:54,160 --> 00:16:56,040
Speaker 4: And I will say I think the you know, from

347
00:16:56,040 --> 00:16:58,680
Speaker 4: a ceiling perspective, it's still really high for a guy

348
00:16:58,680 --> 00:17:01,000
Speaker 4: that we're projecting kind of in at forty forty five

349
00:17:01,040 --> 00:17:05,600
Speaker 4: catch range, because even if the receptions let's say, don't

350
00:17:05,640 --> 00:17:07,159
Speaker 4: go over the total, I mean, he could just be

351
00:17:07,320 --> 00:17:08,160
Speaker 4: highly efficient.

352
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Speaker 3: You know.

353
00:17:09,160 --> 00:17:12,440
Speaker 4: We he has Carson Wentz who's shown he can really

354
00:17:12,480 --> 00:17:14,200
Speaker 4: distribute the ball well to the tight end. We saw

355
00:17:14,240 --> 00:17:15,960
Speaker 4: I think a play last year where got he it

356
00:17:16,080 --> 00:17:17,679
Speaker 4: had like a ninety yard touchdown or something like.

357
00:17:17,680 --> 00:17:18,360
Speaker 1: That called back.

358
00:17:18,400 --> 00:17:21,159
Speaker 4: So this is an explosive receiver that could could one

359
00:17:21,160 --> 00:17:23,440
Speaker 4: of those guys that could catch you know, thirty five

360
00:17:23,480 --> 00:17:25,600
Speaker 4: balls and eight of them are touchdowns or something like that.

361
00:17:25,680 --> 00:17:28,760
Speaker 4: So still like him as kind of a TE two pick.

362
00:17:29,119 --> 00:17:29,359
Speaker 3: Yeah.

363
00:17:29,400 --> 00:17:32,439
Speaker 5: So just on a side note, one of your guys thoughts.

364
00:17:32,440 --> 00:17:35,320
Speaker 5: If zach Ertz ever, you know, he ever misses a week,

365
00:17:35,359 --> 00:17:37,320
Speaker 5: where do you think you guys would have got it

366
00:17:37,480 --> 00:17:39,080
Speaker 5: ranked amongst tight ends?

367
00:17:39,400 --> 00:17:40,119
Speaker 2: Tight end four?

368
00:17:41,680 --> 00:17:44,840
Speaker 4: I would be a little more conservative to start, but

369
00:17:44,920 --> 00:17:48,320
Speaker 4: I'd say, you know that forty five forty five yards

370
00:17:48,359 --> 00:17:50,520
Speaker 4: average that Burton had, and yeah, it would put him

371
00:17:50,520 --> 00:17:53,800
Speaker 4: in that I think top top six ish, But yeah,

372
00:17:53,800 --> 00:17:56,560
Speaker 4: I probably have him about six seven four is a

373
00:17:56,600 --> 00:17:57,680
Speaker 4: little aggressive as Jordan.

374
00:17:58,119 --> 00:17:59,000
Speaker 1: Excuse me if O. J.

375
00:17:59,200 --> 00:18:02,399
Speaker 4: Howard is healthy, because I think he's another guy in

376
00:18:02,480 --> 00:18:03,360
Speaker 4: line for a monster here.

377
00:18:03,720 --> 00:18:06,200
Speaker 5: Yeah, I'm in I'm probably a little higher because I

378
00:18:06,240 --> 00:18:09,080
Speaker 5: think depending on matchup, I could seem hovering around you know,

379
00:18:09,160 --> 00:18:10,960
Speaker 5: tight end three to tight end seven for me.

380
00:18:11,520 --> 00:18:12,359
Speaker 3: Yeah, I hear you.

381
00:18:12,520 --> 00:18:14,680
Speaker 4: I mean there's a it's it's tough because it's there's

382
00:18:14,720 --> 00:18:17,200
Speaker 4: a lot of competition for targets there. Suddenly you know,

383
00:18:17,280 --> 00:18:20,000
Speaker 4: you got d Jacks, you got the rookie Arciga white Side,

384
00:18:20,000 --> 00:18:23,440
Speaker 4: who from all accounts may be involved, especially around the

385
00:18:23,720 --> 00:18:26,119
Speaker 4: goal line. And the Eagles are saying anyway, I mean,

386
00:18:26,160 --> 00:18:28,400
Speaker 4: I don't know if this is true, but they're saying, hey,

387
00:18:28,480 --> 00:18:30,160
Speaker 4: Nelson Algor is still a big part of this team.

388
00:18:30,200 --> 00:18:32,240
Speaker 4: He's still a slot receiver, so I mean I expect

389
00:18:32,280 --> 00:18:34,000
Speaker 4: him to use more two tight end sets.

390
00:18:33,720 --> 00:18:36,120
Speaker 1: But you know, they always tend to have a lot

391
00:18:36,160 --> 00:18:37,000
Speaker 1: of guys kind of there.

392
00:18:37,000 --> 00:18:38,840
Speaker 4: You know, we think Goddard is going to be featured

393
00:18:38,840 --> 00:18:40,959
Speaker 4: more during the second half of last season, and what

394
00:18:41,000 --> 00:18:42,680
Speaker 4: do they do. They go out and acquire Golden Tate

395
00:18:42,720 --> 00:18:46,240
Speaker 4: and I think Goddard Gotter's numbers didn't really improve that

396
00:18:46,320 --> 00:18:48,200
Speaker 4: much in terms of targets going down the stretch, So

397
00:18:48,840 --> 00:18:51,119
Speaker 4: it's kind of it is tough, all right.

398
00:18:51,200 --> 00:18:55,040
Speaker 5: Moving on to the Redskins Darius Guice. Unfortunately, I had

399
00:18:55,040 --> 00:18:56,919
Speaker 5: to miss his entire rookie season with the torney a

400
00:18:56,960 --> 00:19:00,160
Speaker 5: cl and apparently it was, you know, infected, So he's

401
00:19:00,200 --> 00:19:02,119
Speaker 5: coming a little bit slowly. I want to get your

402
00:19:02,119 --> 00:19:05,680
Speaker 5: guys thoughts on his rushing yards. So right now I

403
00:19:05,800 --> 00:19:08,760
Speaker 5: have his over under set at six eighty and a half.

404
00:19:08,960 --> 00:19:11,560
Speaker 2: I will take slightly under, but that is really close

405
00:19:11,560 --> 00:19:12,280
Speaker 2: to where I have it.

406
00:19:12,680 --> 00:19:16,280
Speaker 4: I go I go more under than that, I don't.

407
00:19:16,560 --> 00:19:19,159
Speaker 4: I just don't at this point have confidence in his health.

408
00:19:19,320 --> 00:19:24,560
Speaker 4: I don't have confidence in him necessarily making Adrian Peterson

409
00:19:24,600 --> 00:19:29,000
Speaker 4: a non factor. And I mean Chris Thompson. You know,

410
00:19:29,040 --> 00:19:31,359
Speaker 4: he's liable to miss a lot of games.

411
00:19:31,440 --> 00:19:34,080
Speaker 1: I have his games played projection set ridiculously low.

412
00:19:34,119 --> 00:19:35,359
Speaker 4: It's one of those guys I kind of go in

413
00:19:35,359 --> 00:19:38,760
Speaker 4: and do a manual override. So I don't even have

414
00:19:38,840 --> 00:19:41,080
Speaker 4: Chris Thompson playing double digit games this year.

415
00:19:41,200 --> 00:19:42,880
Speaker 1: I think he's my lowest running back projection.

416
00:19:43,240 --> 00:19:45,480
Speaker 4: But if he's healthy, I mean, he was the Redskins'

417
00:19:45,520 --> 00:19:47,520
Speaker 4: best player at times so the last couple of years,

418
00:19:47,560 --> 00:19:48,720
Speaker 4: so I think he factors in.

419
00:19:49,640 --> 00:19:50,399
Speaker 1: I just don't.

420
00:19:50,640 --> 00:19:52,960
Speaker 4: I just see a lot of avenues where Geist doesn't.

421
00:19:53,040 --> 00:19:55,159
Speaker 4: And I think the one thing where he does is

422
00:19:55,160 --> 00:19:58,600
Speaker 4: if he just he either goes under or way over.

423
00:19:58,640 --> 00:20:00,760
Speaker 5: I'll put it that way, right, But is that a

424
00:20:00,760 --> 00:20:02,320
Speaker 5: two unit bet from you on the under?

425
00:20:04,080 --> 00:20:05,320
Speaker 1: Oh, let's do it. Let's do it.

426
00:20:05,359 --> 00:20:08,040
Speaker 4: I mean, you gotta be careful with your units, you know,

427
00:20:08,320 --> 00:20:10,720
Speaker 4: but people out there might be I don't know.

428
00:20:10,720 --> 00:20:11,639
Speaker 1: I don't want to be yoshing.

429
00:20:11,960 --> 00:20:15,440
Speaker 4: I don't want to be yoshing, but uh yeah, man.

430
00:20:15,359 --> 00:20:17,600
Speaker 1: I'm I feel confident in the end. I've been low

431
00:20:17,680 --> 00:20:19,080
Speaker 1: on guys all off season.

432
00:20:19,320 --> 00:20:22,520
Speaker 5: All right, heading over to the North, Let's let's go

433
00:20:22,560 --> 00:20:27,919
Speaker 5: with the Bears. David Montgomery total touches this year. I

434
00:20:27,960 --> 00:20:31,720
Speaker 5: have his over inner set at one and a half over.

435
00:20:32,160 --> 00:20:36,480
Speaker 2: I'm I'm probably gonna be uh too optimistic on Montgomery,

436
00:20:36,680 --> 00:20:39,680
Speaker 2: just as I probably am too optimistic on Miles Sanders.

437
00:20:40,640 --> 00:20:43,280
Speaker 2: But uh yeah, I'm going to I'm going to hammer

438
00:20:43,400 --> 00:20:45,920
Speaker 2: the over on that. I think they they drafted him

439
00:20:45,920 --> 00:20:48,199
Speaker 2: with the idea of him being something like uh and

440
00:20:48,240 --> 00:20:52,240
Speaker 2: they said this like their Kareem Hunt. And I think

441
00:20:52,240 --> 00:20:56,119
Speaker 2: he will play basically the Jordan Howard role, but uh,

442
00:20:56,320 --> 00:21:00,760
Speaker 2: you know, probably with more impact and certainly more impact

443
00:21:00,840 --> 00:21:04,359
Speaker 2: in the passing game. So I will definitely What was

444
00:21:04,400 --> 00:21:07,560
Speaker 2: the number you said there, Well, so you're saying.

445
00:21:07,760 --> 00:21:09,760
Speaker 1: I was one over, but I mean, I mean, I

446
00:21:10,119 --> 00:21:10,800
Speaker 1: forget it was.

447
00:21:11,480 --> 00:21:13,880
Speaker 2: It was one's That's why I mean, I just wanted

448
00:21:13,880 --> 00:21:16,320
Speaker 2: to make sure I said the right number, because yeah,

449
00:21:16,520 --> 00:21:18,640
Speaker 2: I mean I will. I will easily take the over

450
00:21:18,680 --> 00:21:19,000
Speaker 2: on that.

451
00:21:19,359 --> 00:21:20,960
Speaker 1: I think that's a really good line as well.

452
00:21:20,960 --> 00:21:24,359
Speaker 4: I actually have him slightly under, but that's assuming he

453
00:21:24,359 --> 00:21:26,680
Speaker 4: plays fourteen games. If he were to play the full sixteen,

454
00:21:27,119 --> 00:21:29,240
Speaker 4: I would have he would go over even.

455
00:21:29,119 --> 00:21:30,680
Speaker 1: If he played if he played fifteen, he would be

456
00:21:30,760 --> 00:21:31,280
Speaker 1: right on the dot.

457
00:21:31,600 --> 00:21:34,440
Speaker 4: The one thing I think I think in when you're

458
00:21:34,480 --> 00:21:38,359
Speaker 4: looking at the Bears backfield. While I am bullish on

459
00:21:38,440 --> 00:21:41,639
Speaker 4: Montgomery as a player, I do think in terms of

460
00:21:41,720 --> 00:21:45,560
Speaker 4: value relative to average draft position right now, I think

461
00:21:45,640 --> 00:21:49,720
Speaker 4: Mike Davis is the value because one thing they kind

462
00:21:49,760 --> 00:21:53,400
Speaker 4: of said is that they want to reduce three Cohen's

463
00:21:53,400 --> 00:21:55,239
Speaker 4: work out a little bit and put you know, more

464
00:21:55,240 --> 00:21:56,720
Speaker 4: of a factor in the passing game. I think he

465
00:21:56,720 --> 00:21:58,560
Speaker 4: gets west carries, but it is going to be a

466
00:21:58,560 --> 00:22:02,400
Speaker 4: three headed monster. And they actually when they acquired Mike Davis,

467
00:22:02,840 --> 00:22:05,600
Speaker 4: you know, they're paying him more than.

468
00:22:05,560 --> 00:22:07,000
Speaker 1: Jordan Howard would have been paid.

469
00:22:07,440 --> 00:22:09,439
Speaker 4: So I think Jordan Howard was kind of what go

470
00:22:09,560 --> 00:22:12,760
Speaker 4: for the reason that not a great pass catching back.

471
00:22:13,440 --> 00:22:16,240
Speaker 4: Mike Davis did well in that area for the Seattle

472
00:22:16,240 --> 00:22:19,280
Speaker 4: Seahawks last season. So right now, you know, I think

473
00:22:19,280 --> 00:22:21,800
Speaker 4: Montgomery can can come on and take a stranglehold of

474
00:22:21,800 --> 00:22:24,960
Speaker 4: that role. But I'm not necessarily sure at what point

475
00:22:25,119 --> 00:22:26,600
Speaker 4: that is, and I'm not sure that the Bears just

476
00:22:26,680 --> 00:22:29,880
Speaker 4: don't prefer to have all of these guys involved, being

477
00:22:29,880 --> 00:22:33,320
Speaker 4: that they went out and acquired Davis and gave them,

478
00:22:33,480 --> 00:22:34,880
Speaker 4: you know, not a lot of money because running backs

479
00:22:34,880 --> 00:22:37,439
Speaker 4: aren't getting a lot of money period, but something, you know,

480
00:22:37,520 --> 00:22:39,960
Speaker 4: something comparable or more than what Howard.

481
00:22:39,760 --> 00:22:40,280
Speaker 1: Would have gotten.

482
00:22:40,280 --> 00:22:42,360
Speaker 4: So I'm just not sure that Davis is as out

483
00:22:42,400 --> 00:22:45,200
Speaker 4: of the picture as I think his ADP, which tends

484
00:22:45,240 --> 00:22:48,719
Speaker 4: to be he's basically free in a lot of weeks, suggests.

485
00:22:48,240 --> 00:22:51,000
Speaker 2: I mean to Ray volunteer your point. I see what

486
00:22:51,000 --> 00:22:53,479
Speaker 2: you're saying, and I think that Davis does offer value

487
00:22:53,480 --> 00:22:56,119
Speaker 2: at his ADP because I mean, yeah, he's going against

488
00:22:56,119 --> 00:22:58,479
Speaker 2: a rookie and a guy who's really small, so you

489
00:22:58,480 --> 00:23:01,160
Speaker 2: could see a path to him get the number one job.

490
00:23:01,600 --> 00:23:04,439
Speaker 2: But that said, like the amount of money that he's getting,

491
00:23:04,760 --> 00:23:07,160
Speaker 2: like while it is similar to what Jordan Howard would

492
00:23:07,160 --> 00:23:09,679
Speaker 2: have gotten, it's still a really small amount of money. So,

493
00:23:09,840 --> 00:23:14,560
Speaker 2: like they traded up to get David Montgomery, and like

494
00:23:14,600 --> 00:23:17,200
Speaker 2: they've talked openly about how they do view him as

495
00:23:17,280 --> 00:23:19,280
Speaker 2: Kareem Hunt, and I don't think that that's just sort

496
00:23:19,320 --> 00:23:22,080
Speaker 2: of like a throwaway type of thing. Like obviously, like

497
00:23:22,119 --> 00:23:26,280
Speaker 2: Matt Naggy was there with Kareem Hunt in his rookie season,

498
00:23:26,440 --> 00:23:29,960
Speaker 2: and the coach, the college coach, Matt Campbell, who developed

499
00:23:30,040 --> 00:23:34,000
Speaker 2: Kareem Hunt at Toledo, was David Montgomery's coach at Iowa State,

500
00:23:34,359 --> 00:23:36,480
Speaker 2: like they there is a similar skill set there, and

501
00:23:36,520 --> 00:23:38,000
Speaker 2: I think they are going to use him as a

502
00:23:38,040 --> 00:23:38,480
Speaker 2: lead back.

503
00:23:38,840 --> 00:23:40,439
Speaker 4: Yeah, and I mean that's why I did. You know,

504
00:23:40,480 --> 00:23:42,320
Speaker 4: I mentioned I'm bullishaw on him as a player. But

505
00:23:42,359 --> 00:23:45,840
Speaker 4: let's remember what was Kareem Hunt heading into his rookie season.

506
00:23:46,080 --> 00:23:48,800
Speaker 4: He was a number two back behind a more reliable

507
00:23:48,920 --> 00:23:51,960
Speaker 4: veteran in Spencer where and where went down for the

508
00:23:52,000 --> 00:23:53,879
Speaker 4: season and that's when he got the job. So I

509
00:23:53,880 --> 00:23:57,560
Speaker 4: think the upside is there, but value wise, I just don't.

510
00:23:57,600 --> 00:24:00,399
Speaker 4: I don't have them projected where it's like Montgomery, you know,

511
00:24:00,720 --> 00:24:03,679
Speaker 4: running away with the job. It's more like Montgomery's tiny,

512
00:24:03,800 --> 00:24:05,800
Speaker 4: tiny edge at this point.

513
00:24:05,880 --> 00:24:07,800
Speaker 5: Yeah, those are those are great points that you know.

514
00:24:07,840 --> 00:24:09,639
Speaker 5: I want to be clear, we're trying to project the

515
00:24:09,680 --> 00:24:12,639
Speaker 5: median here. I think we'd all love to see Montgomery

516
00:24:12,680 --> 00:24:15,760
Speaker 5: get over two hundred touches. I think it'd be exciting

517
00:24:15,800 --> 00:24:16,080
Speaker 5: to see.

518
00:24:16,119 --> 00:24:17,800
Speaker 3: But you know, we have to.

519
00:24:17,760 --> 00:24:21,320
Speaker 5: Project reality here, and I think people are drafting based

520
00:24:21,320 --> 00:24:22,439
Speaker 5: on what they hope to see.

521
00:24:22,520 --> 00:24:24,959
Speaker 3: I think he's going in like the fifth round now

522
00:24:25,000 --> 00:24:25,800
Speaker 3: and the best ball.

523
00:24:25,880 --> 00:24:28,320
Speaker 5: So yeah, you said, you know, the values he's going

524
00:24:28,359 --> 00:24:30,480
Speaker 5: to have to come close to the ceiling to hit value.

525
00:24:30,480 --> 00:24:32,560
Speaker 5: There where's a guy like Mike Davis, like you said,

526
00:24:32,600 --> 00:24:34,840
Speaker 5: he's free and we already saw him spoil a rookie's

527
00:24:35,080 --> 00:24:37,160
Speaker 5: season last year with Sean Penny. So you just got

528
00:24:37,160 --> 00:24:39,600
Speaker 5: to be careful of these running back by committees. And

529
00:24:39,640 --> 00:24:41,800
Speaker 5: the touches are really hard to peg. So you know,

530
00:24:41,840 --> 00:24:43,479
Speaker 5: I don't think it's going to end up around one

531
00:24:43,560 --> 00:24:45,359
Speaker 5: forty five. It could be one hundred, it could be

532
00:24:45,600 --> 00:24:46,280
Speaker 5: two point fifty.

533
00:24:46,359 --> 00:24:46,920
Speaker 3: We don't know.

534
00:24:47,280 --> 00:24:49,879
Speaker 5: That's the thing that these rookie running backs is the

535
00:24:50,000 --> 00:24:53,160
Speaker 5: range of projections is so wide that we really can't

536
00:24:53,359 --> 00:24:55,520
Speaker 5: you know, peg exactly where the meeting is going to be.

537
00:24:55,520 --> 00:24:57,320
Speaker 5: So it helps, you know, to bounce these ideas up

538
00:24:57,359 --> 00:24:59,240
Speaker 5: you guys, and you know, come.

539
00:24:59,040 --> 00:24:59,840
Speaker 3: On common ground.

540
00:24:59,880 --> 00:25:03,560
Speaker 5: But but yeah, the hype for him is well warranted,

541
00:25:03,600 --> 00:25:06,280
Speaker 5: but you got to factor that in your projections and

542
00:25:06,359 --> 00:25:09,240
Speaker 5: kind of gauge where the values where he's going in drafts.

543
00:25:09,440 --> 00:25:12,040
Speaker 4: Yeah, and I think at this point, so what happens

544
00:25:12,080 --> 00:25:13,800
Speaker 4: is a lot of people, if you're kind of more

545
00:25:13,880 --> 00:25:16,960
Speaker 4: casual player who doesn't start drafting your leagues to August,

546
00:25:17,000 --> 00:25:19,800
Speaker 4: like like the majority of people out there, a lot

547
00:25:19,840 --> 00:25:23,320
Speaker 4: of these average draft positions are shaped by, you know,

548
00:25:23,720 --> 00:25:25,600
Speaker 4: us kind of guys that have been that have been,

549
00:25:25,640 --> 00:25:27,480
Speaker 4: you know, taking in a lot of college tape and

550
00:25:27,760 --> 00:25:30,600
Speaker 4: following the draft all off season long, and a lot

551
00:25:30,640 --> 00:25:32,800
Speaker 4: of times you'll see some of these rookies kind of

552
00:25:32,960 --> 00:25:37,040
Speaker 4: start the off season and enter August with these inflated ADPs.

553
00:25:37,040 --> 00:25:38,760
Speaker 4: Because I'm kind of seeing that a little bit with

554
00:25:38,760 --> 00:25:41,960
Speaker 4: with Montgomery Sanders. Just these guys who you know, we

555
00:25:42,040 --> 00:25:44,440
Speaker 4: have high hopes for, we think they're good players.

556
00:25:44,000 --> 00:25:44,960
Speaker 1: But they're ADP.

557
00:25:45,080 --> 00:25:47,359
Speaker 4: That's almost like there's no room for ceiling at this point.

558
00:25:47,400 --> 00:25:50,399
Speaker 4: It's all it's the ceiling has already been baked in.

559
00:25:50,560 --> 00:25:50,840
Speaker 3: All right.

560
00:25:50,880 --> 00:25:54,320
Speaker 5: So one more prop for the Bears. Mitch Strubisky total

561
00:25:54,359 --> 00:25:56,840
Speaker 5: passing yards this year. I have the over and at

562
00:25:57,000 --> 00:26:00,240
Speaker 5: three six and seventy and a half.

563
00:26:01,359 --> 00:26:02,720
Speaker 1: I am going over.

564
00:26:03,040 --> 00:26:06,680
Speaker 4: I'm bullish on Trubisky this season. I think that it's

565
00:26:06,720 --> 00:26:09,199
Speaker 4: just one of those situations where, regardless what you think

566
00:26:09,280 --> 00:26:13,640
Speaker 4: of the player, every anyone he throws to UH can

567
00:26:13,680 --> 00:26:15,639
Speaker 4: make plays. At this point, I mean, we mentioned the

568
00:26:15,680 --> 00:26:18,119
Speaker 4: three the three deep running back committee.

569
00:26:19,000 --> 00:26:20,200
Speaker 1: We you know, he has.

570
00:26:20,040 --> 00:26:22,520
Speaker 4: These kind of gadget types of over the place that

571
00:26:22,520 --> 00:26:24,359
Speaker 4: that can pick up big yardage at the drop of

572
00:26:24,400 --> 00:26:26,520
Speaker 4: a hat in Cohen Gabriel.

573
00:26:26,560 --> 00:26:28,920
Speaker 1: They added Cordero Patterson to the mix.

574
00:26:29,119 --> 00:26:31,639
Speaker 4: I think it shouldn't be understated that Alan Robinson is

575
00:26:31,760 --> 00:26:34,520
Speaker 4: entering his age twenty six season, which tends to be

576
00:26:34,560 --> 00:26:37,240
Speaker 4: the peak for wide receivers. He's another year removed from

577
00:26:37,240 --> 00:26:40,679
Speaker 4: his ACL injury, and this is another year for Trubisky

578
00:26:40,880 --> 00:26:43,520
Speaker 4: in a Matt Maggie offense because you have to kind

579
00:26:43,520 --> 00:26:47,280
Speaker 4: of throw away I think that first year with John Fox.

580
00:26:47,280 --> 00:26:50,440
Speaker 4: So assuming you know, normal health for a quarterback, quarterbacks

581
00:26:50,440 --> 00:26:52,719
Speaker 4: tend to miss you know, zero to one games usually

582
00:26:52,840 --> 00:26:55,320
Speaker 4: Tubrisky myth missed a couple starts last year. But assuming

583
00:26:55,359 --> 00:26:59,040
Speaker 4: he's in that range, I think he has a lot

584
00:26:59,080 --> 00:27:02,159
Speaker 4: of potential, even if he he's not necessarily throwing the

585
00:27:02,160 --> 00:27:05,160
Speaker 4: ball downfield a ton, because he's got guys that could

586
00:27:05,160 --> 00:27:07,520
Speaker 4: make plays after the catch, as well as a guy

587
00:27:07,560 --> 00:27:10,080
Speaker 4: like Alan Robinson who can do things downfield and in

588
00:27:10,080 --> 00:27:10,800
Speaker 4: the red zone.

589
00:27:11,040 --> 00:27:15,440
Speaker 2: So Rayvon and I earlier this year already have butted

590
00:27:15,480 --> 00:27:18,720
Speaker 2: heads on talking about Trubisky, So probably no surprise here.

591
00:27:18,800 --> 00:27:20,960
Speaker 2: I am taking the under. I just I think so

592
00:27:21,080 --> 00:27:25,080
Speaker 2: much of what happened with Trubisky last year was driven

593
00:27:25,320 --> 00:27:30,560
Speaker 2: by unsustainable efficiency in key situations. And I am much

594
00:27:30,600 --> 00:27:33,040
Speaker 2: more bullish on his coach than I am on him.

595
00:27:33,040 --> 00:27:35,320
Speaker 2: And I know he should benefit by having his coach there,

596
00:27:35,320 --> 00:27:37,159
Speaker 2: and I think he will, But I still think he

597
00:27:37,320 --> 00:27:42,280
Speaker 2: is basically Blake Portles with a better offense.

598
00:27:42,440 --> 00:27:46,440
Speaker 1: Wow, I'm going to be fading. We compare two quarterbacks

599
00:27:46,520 --> 00:27:49,119
Speaker 1: to Blake Bortos. Already, it's Blake Border's lucky day. Daniel

600
00:27:49,200 --> 00:27:52,680
Speaker 1: Jones might be Blake Bortos Trubisky. I mean, you think

601
00:27:52,720 --> 00:27:55,800
Speaker 1: Blake Bortles would still be in this league starting. But

602
00:27:56,320 --> 00:27:57,480
Speaker 1: it's a good backup for the Rams.

603
00:27:57,520 --> 00:27:59,440
Speaker 4: I mean, I mean, after seeing the way Jerry got

604
00:27:59,440 --> 00:28:01,320
Speaker 4: playing the super what is he Blake photos too?

605
00:28:01,760 --> 00:28:04,280
Speaker 3: Oh? Great third quarterback?

606
00:28:04,320 --> 00:28:12,159
Speaker 5: Comparatively all right, Moving on to the Lions, carry on

607
00:28:12,280 --> 00:28:17,480
Speaker 5: Johnson total rushing plus receiving yards over under.

608
00:28:19,200 --> 00:28:20,320
Speaker 3: Fifty and a half.

609
00:28:21,240 --> 00:28:23,879
Speaker 2: I will take the over. I think he will be

610
00:28:23,960 --> 00:28:26,480
Speaker 2: the guy who gets a lot of the kind of

611
00:28:26,560 --> 00:28:30,600
Speaker 2: meaningless yardage in between the twenties. And I think he's

612
00:28:30,640 --> 00:28:33,760
Speaker 2: a good enough of a pass catcher where some of

613
00:28:33,800 --> 00:28:37,119
Speaker 2: the production that otherwise would have gone to theoretic Carrie

614
00:28:37,119 --> 00:28:39,440
Speaker 2: On Johnson will be able to get. I think the

615
00:28:39,480 --> 00:28:41,680
Speaker 2: big knock on him is that he won't be getting

616
00:28:41,680 --> 00:28:44,320
Speaker 2: the touchdowns. So I will I will take the over

617
00:28:44,560 --> 00:28:47,000
Speaker 2: on yardage, but it will be kind of I think,

618
00:28:47,160 --> 00:28:48,400
Speaker 2: meaningless yardage.

619
00:28:48,960 --> 00:28:50,760
Speaker 1: This is another one where I'm going under. I think

620
00:28:50,760 --> 00:28:53,120
Speaker 1: it's a pretty decent line.

621
00:28:53,120 --> 00:28:54,880
Speaker 4: But at the same time, I think I think the

622
00:28:54,600 --> 00:28:58,000
Speaker 4: Lions first thing we should mention is that Darryl Bevil

623
00:28:58,360 --> 00:29:02,200
Speaker 4: is the now the offensive coordinator of their pretty run

624
00:29:02,240 --> 00:29:05,640
Speaker 4: heavy OC in Seattle. Matt Patricia and the team have

625
00:29:05,680 --> 00:29:07,440
Speaker 4: come out and kind of said, hey, we want to

626
00:29:07,640 --> 00:29:10,160
Speaker 4: recommit to the run. They kind of alluded to hiding

627
00:29:10,200 --> 00:29:13,520
Speaker 4: the defense a little bit. So I do think they

628
00:29:13,520 --> 00:29:15,400
Speaker 4: want to run the ball more. I do think THEO

629
00:29:15,520 --> 00:29:18,800
Speaker 4: Ridick is kind of on the downslope of his career.

630
00:29:18,840 --> 00:29:20,240
Speaker 4: A lot of the usage you saw later in the

631
00:29:20,320 --> 00:29:24,360
Speaker 4: year was when Detroit kind of lost all their receivers

632
00:29:24,400 --> 00:29:27,600
Speaker 4: and you know, they needed somebody, especially underneath they were

633
00:29:27,880 --> 00:29:31,080
Speaker 4: thrown out Bruce Ellington and stuff. So I do think

634
00:29:31,120 --> 00:29:34,480
Speaker 4: that Johnson's workload will increase a bit. However, I also

635
00:29:34,600 --> 00:29:37,440
Speaker 4: think that CJ. Anderson will kind of reprise a similar

636
00:29:37,680 --> 00:29:40,600
Speaker 4: role to what Legarret Blunt had and I think a

637
00:29:40,640 --> 00:29:42,920
Speaker 4: lot of these coaches in the league have just kind

638
00:29:42,960 --> 00:29:46,040
Speaker 4: of come to terms with it's probably smarter to use

639
00:29:46,040 --> 00:29:49,560
Speaker 4: a committee backfield and not overwork your top guy. And

640
00:29:49,840 --> 00:29:51,880
Speaker 4: we've known the Patriots to be kind of that a

641
00:29:51,920 --> 00:29:54,720
Speaker 4: team that does that. We saw Sony Michelle kind of

642
00:29:54,720 --> 00:29:57,000
Speaker 4: getting a large workload. But that's also because the Patriots

643
00:29:57,000 --> 00:29:59,360
Speaker 4: are good and they have the opportunity to kind of,

644
00:30:00,320 --> 00:30:02,600
Speaker 4: you know, salt the game away with weeds, and I

645
00:30:02,640 --> 00:30:04,160
Speaker 4: don't know if the Wants had that, and I don't

646
00:30:04,160 --> 00:30:07,240
Speaker 4: know if Johnson would even be that guy. So I'm

647
00:30:07,280 --> 00:30:10,360
Speaker 4: going under. But I do think that the upside is there,

648
00:30:10,880 --> 00:30:12,800
Speaker 4: but I don't I'm not. I'm just not sure they're

649
00:30:12,800 --> 00:30:14,800
Speaker 4: willing to use him quite a capacity.

650
00:30:14,880 --> 00:30:16,600
Speaker 5: Yeah, and he's in the past that he doesn't really

651
00:30:16,680 --> 00:30:20,600
Speaker 5: view himself as a bell cow back, but they I've

652
00:30:20,640 --> 00:30:23,160
Speaker 5: heard that Theoretic could be on the roster bubble, so

653
00:30:23,320 --> 00:30:24,720
Speaker 5: he gets cut.

654
00:30:24,840 --> 00:30:26,280
Speaker 3: You know. I agree that C. J.

655
00:30:26,360 --> 00:30:29,440
Speaker 5: Anderson might you know, handle a pretty big workload with

656
00:30:29,560 --> 00:30:31,960
Speaker 5: the rushing attack. But if they cut Theoretic, we all

657
00:30:32,000 --> 00:30:35,680
Speaker 5: know how valuable you know, receptions are in terms of

658
00:30:35,840 --> 00:30:38,040
Speaker 5: you know, yardage efficiency, So I think that will help

659
00:30:38,080 --> 00:30:40,120
Speaker 5: him out. But with him, I think it's all about

660
00:30:40,120 --> 00:30:43,320
Speaker 5: staying healthy. He's he's kind of had a troubled history

661
00:30:43,400 --> 00:30:46,520
Speaker 5: dating back to even like high school, of being hurt.

662
00:30:46,560 --> 00:30:48,360
Speaker 5: So I think if he stays healthy, he can go

663
00:30:48,440 --> 00:30:50,440
Speaker 5: over this total. But that's that's pretty much what this

664
00:30:50,520 --> 00:30:55,040
Speaker 5: prop is about, if he could stay healthy. So moving

665
00:30:55,080 --> 00:30:59,880
Speaker 5: on to the Packers or Kazvelda's Scantling total receiving yards

666
00:31:00,120 --> 00:31:04,280
Speaker 5: this year, I have it set at six seventy five.

667
00:31:04,080 --> 00:31:04,520
Speaker 1: And a half.

668
00:31:05,960 --> 00:31:07,720
Speaker 2: I will take the under, thank you.

669
00:31:08,760 --> 00:31:11,640
Speaker 1: I want to go over, but that's a pretty fair line.

670
00:31:11,920 --> 00:31:13,880
Speaker 4: It's another one where I have him just under by

671
00:31:13,960 --> 00:31:16,680
Speaker 4: less than one hundred yards, so I will go with

672
00:31:16,840 --> 00:31:19,240
Speaker 4: the under. I think, again, these are kind of when

673
00:31:19,240 --> 00:31:22,480
Speaker 4: you're projecting, you're looking for the median. But I will

674
00:31:22,480 --> 00:31:26,880
Speaker 4: say this, I am most bullish on Valdez Scantling of

675
00:31:26,920 --> 00:31:31,760
Speaker 4: all of the non Davante Adams Packers wide receivers. I

676
00:31:31,800 --> 00:31:34,120
Speaker 4: think I was a little bit worried down the stretch

677
00:31:34,200 --> 00:31:38,400
Speaker 4: last year when Equinemias Saint Brown started getting snaps over

678
00:31:38,480 --> 00:31:44,200
Speaker 4: Valdez Scantling. However, I think Valdez Scantling, he's the guy

679
00:31:44,240 --> 00:31:45,120
Speaker 4: that you know, I.

680
00:31:45,120 --> 00:31:46,200
Speaker 1: Think flashed the most.

681
00:31:46,320 --> 00:31:48,479
Speaker 4: Just when you watched the games last year and there

682
00:31:48,520 --> 00:31:51,840
Speaker 4: is a new coaching regime, word out of campus been positive,

683
00:31:51,920 --> 00:31:55,680
Speaker 4: most positive regarding MVS and I think he has the

684
00:31:55,760 --> 00:31:58,640
Speaker 4: highest ceiling, even higher I would say than Allison, who

685
00:31:59,080 --> 00:32:00,960
Speaker 4: coming off of injury, he kind of slots in. Is

686
00:32:01,040 --> 00:32:04,120
Speaker 4: that that that other perimeter guy that sometimes we get

687
00:32:04,120 --> 00:32:06,640
Speaker 4: a little too excited about those guys I remember Derek Boykin,

688
00:32:07,520 --> 00:32:09,120
Speaker 4: you know, guys in that vein like Aaron Rodgers is

689
00:32:09,120 --> 00:32:12,320
Speaker 4: gonna make everybody look decent. But I think MBS is

690
00:32:12,320 --> 00:32:14,600
Speaker 4: a guy who could kind of explode onto the seed

691
00:32:14,640 --> 00:32:16,920
Speaker 4: and when you don't quite see it coming as clearly,

692
00:32:17,000 --> 00:32:20,240
Speaker 4: kind of like a Jordy Nelson, did you know, back

693
00:32:20,320 --> 00:32:21,520
Speaker 4: up maybe five six years ago.

694
00:32:22,040 --> 00:32:24,600
Speaker 5: Yeah, he definitely seems to be trending based on early

695
00:32:24,640 --> 00:32:28,560
Speaker 5: reports to get that number two role across from DeVante.

696
00:32:28,600 --> 00:32:31,440
Speaker 5: And you know, he put up five eighty one receiving

697
00:32:31,480 --> 00:32:33,520
Speaker 5: yards last year and that was with five games where

698
00:32:33,520 --> 00:32:37,080
Speaker 5: he barely played and able to record over ten receiving yards.

699
00:32:37,160 --> 00:32:40,000
Speaker 5: So I think, you know, his floor seems a little

700
00:32:40,000 --> 00:32:42,560
Speaker 5: bit higher than we think, and obviously the ceilings are

701
00:32:42,560 --> 00:32:44,880
Speaker 5: so I will gladly take the over for both of

702
00:32:44,880 --> 00:32:46,840
Speaker 5: you on six seventy five and a half.

703
00:32:47,360 --> 00:32:49,440
Speaker 4: So the way I project that, especially at this point

704
00:32:49,480 --> 00:32:51,640
Speaker 4: in the off season, I get I'll just foot for

705
00:32:51,680 --> 00:32:54,480
Speaker 4: anyone out there wondering, is in situations like this where

706
00:32:54,520 --> 00:32:57,600
Speaker 4: I think there's there's still some question marks about Okay,

707
00:32:57,600 --> 00:33:00,880
Speaker 4: there's four receivers, well, three receivers competing for essentially two

708
00:33:01,280 --> 00:33:05,840
Speaker 4: main roles. It's Allison, It's Valdez Scantling, and then Saint Brown.

709
00:33:05,880 --> 00:33:07,360
Speaker 1: I don't think you can count him out just yet.

710
00:33:08,240 --> 00:33:11,000
Speaker 4: Rogers also shouted out Jake Kumero, so I guess he's

711
00:33:11,040 --> 00:33:13,720
Speaker 4: in the mix as well. So at this point, it's

712
00:33:13,800 --> 00:33:15,960
Speaker 4: just it's a little more conservative because I'm kind of

713
00:33:16,960 --> 00:33:19,280
Speaker 4: splitting those reps up between all those guys. But as

714
00:33:19,320 --> 00:33:21,240
Speaker 4: we get more word and if we keep getting reports

715
00:33:21,320 --> 00:33:23,120
Speaker 4: like this, what I'll do is I'll start to kind

716
00:33:23,120 --> 00:33:26,240
Speaker 4: of cement them, and I think Valdez Scantling would.

717
00:33:26,080 --> 00:33:26,920
Speaker 1: Definitely be over that.

718
00:33:27,040 --> 00:33:29,200
Speaker 4: So if that's kind of worth anything for people projecting

719
00:33:29,200 --> 00:33:32,200
Speaker 4: a little more forward, but right now, especially for best Ball,

720
00:33:32,520 --> 00:33:34,840
Speaker 4: I think you still have to be a little bit conservative.

721
00:33:35,240 --> 00:33:38,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that's fair. Rayvon, and I agree with

722
00:33:37,520 --> 00:33:40,840
Speaker 2: that perspective on how you approach the rankings at this

723
00:33:40,880 --> 00:33:43,560
Speaker 2: point of the year. For me, Geronimo Allison is the

724
00:33:43,560 --> 00:33:46,240
Speaker 2: guy that I'm a more comfortable locking into the number

725
00:33:46,240 --> 00:33:49,239
Speaker 2: two role right now, just because of the chemistry and

726
00:33:49,440 --> 00:33:52,120
Speaker 2: the history that he has with Rogers. But it wouldn't

727
00:33:52,160 --> 00:33:54,600
Speaker 2: be a surprise if MBS did end up winning the

728
00:33:55,040 --> 00:33:56,640
Speaker 2: second job there all.

729
00:33:56,600 --> 00:34:02,000
Speaker 5: Right, heading over to Minnesota, Delva Cook total touches this year,

730
00:34:02,360 --> 00:34:06,520
Speaker 5: I have the line set at oh god, two and

731
00:34:06,520 --> 00:34:09,040
Speaker 5: a half. That's to make a quick full adjustment.

732
00:34:09,040 --> 00:34:12,319
Speaker 1: There are you scared of me going under?

733
00:34:12,520 --> 00:34:16,440
Speaker 3: Freedom everything on this I would not take action of this.

734
00:34:16,520 --> 00:34:17,040
Speaker 3: I'm doing it.

735
00:34:17,160 --> 00:34:20,560
Speaker 2: I will take the under. I will take the under.

736
00:34:21,440 --> 00:34:25,200
Speaker 2: And part of it is because I think Alexander Madison,

737
00:34:25,239 --> 00:34:26,719
Speaker 2: not that I think he's a great talent, but I

738
00:34:26,719 --> 00:34:28,520
Speaker 2: do think that they want to use him in some

739
00:34:28,640 --> 00:34:31,000
Speaker 2: of that Latavious Murray role, so I think he will

740
00:34:31,040 --> 00:34:34,120
Speaker 2: probably get more usage than people are expecting. And then,

741
00:34:34,160 --> 00:34:36,600
Speaker 2: of course there's the injury risk with Dalvin Cook too.

742
00:34:36,640 --> 00:34:39,600
Speaker 2: He hasn't really proven himself as someone who could stay

743
00:34:39,600 --> 00:34:44,040
Speaker 2: healthy to this point. And then also even though with

744
00:34:44,280 --> 00:34:49,399
Speaker 2: the new offensive coordinator that they've brought in in Kevin Stefanski.

745
00:34:49,719 --> 00:34:52,640
Speaker 2: It seems like they brought him in basically just because

746
00:34:52,680 --> 00:34:56,440
Speaker 2: they didn't like what De Filippo was doing previously in

747
00:34:56,480 --> 00:34:59,239
Speaker 2: a more pass heavy scheme. So although it looks like

748
00:34:59,280 --> 00:35:02,080
Speaker 2: they might go more run heavy, I could see them

749
00:35:02,440 --> 00:35:05,239
Speaker 2: still continuing to be more of a pass heavy team.

750
00:35:05,400 --> 00:35:09,040
Speaker 2: Then people might be projecting so I will I will

751
00:35:09,040 --> 00:35:09,640
Speaker 2: take the under.

752
00:35:10,640 --> 00:35:13,240
Speaker 4: Yeah, I have the under. I think this is another

753
00:35:13,280 --> 00:35:16,799
Speaker 4: one where it could go. It could easily go over

754
00:35:16,920 --> 00:35:20,600
Speaker 4: based on the one thing about Mike zimmer Is under

755
00:35:20,600 --> 00:35:23,719
Speaker 4: his watch, I mean, Dalvin Cook was racking up the

756
00:35:23,760 --> 00:35:26,000
Speaker 4: touches his first year before he got hurt.

757
00:35:27,000 --> 00:35:27,680
Speaker 1: I think he was.

758
00:35:27,719 --> 00:35:29,879
Speaker 4: He got over twenty in three of his four games

759
00:35:29,920 --> 00:35:31,919
Speaker 4: or something like that, or and then and then last

760
00:35:32,000 --> 00:35:34,319
Speaker 4: year in his first game back from injury, you know,

761
00:35:34,320 --> 00:35:36,320
Speaker 4: they said they were gonna kind of limit his usage,

762
00:35:36,360 --> 00:35:39,720
Speaker 4: and he got twenty two touches. So that to sixty

763
00:35:39,840 --> 00:35:42,640
Speaker 4: what is sixty five and a half, Yeah, that to

764
00:35:42,640 --> 00:35:44,600
Speaker 4: sixty five and a half with quick to about sixteen

765
00:35:44,640 --> 00:35:48,600
Speaker 4: point six per game over a sixteen game season. So

766
00:35:48,840 --> 00:35:51,120
Speaker 4: it really comes down to the injuries, because I think

767
00:35:51,160 --> 00:35:54,279
Speaker 4: if he plays sixteen games, he he actually would go

768
00:35:54,360 --> 00:35:57,600
Speaker 4: over that just based on Mike Zimmer and how he's

769
00:35:57,719 --> 00:35:59,799
Speaker 4: used Cook and the fact that I mean, I think

770
00:35:59,800 --> 00:36:01,560
Speaker 4: one and the reasons he probably does want to go

771
00:36:02,080 --> 00:36:04,960
Speaker 4: more run heaviest because I would say Kirk Cousins with

772
00:36:05,040 --> 00:36:08,560
Speaker 4: a bit of a disappointment last year, and we know

773
00:36:08,600 --> 00:36:10,279
Speaker 4: how good Dalvin Cook is. So I think there's a

774
00:36:10,320 --> 00:36:13,120
Speaker 4: reason why he wants to go run heavier and it

775
00:36:13,200 --> 00:36:15,160
Speaker 4: is Dalvin Cook. So I think this is one where

776
00:36:15,360 --> 00:36:17,719
Speaker 4: you know, median wise, yeah, a little bit under when

777
00:36:17,719 --> 00:36:20,680
Speaker 4: you factor an injury, but this guy could be he

778
00:36:20,680 --> 00:36:21,360
Speaker 4: could explode.

779
00:36:21,680 --> 00:36:24,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, and I should say I'm taking the under. But Sean,

780
00:36:24,560 --> 00:36:27,800
Speaker 2: I literally have this projected at two sixty five point

781
00:36:27,800 --> 00:36:28,399
Speaker 2: thirty nine.

782
00:36:29,080 --> 00:36:30,239
Speaker 3: I got to take me under. Then.

783
00:36:30,360 --> 00:36:34,279
Speaker 2: Yeah, you know, I'm pretty much where you are. But

784
00:36:34,360 --> 00:36:36,279
Speaker 2: if I had to lean one way or another on

785
00:36:36,360 --> 00:36:37,200
Speaker 2: Talvin Cook, I'm.

786
00:36:37,160 --> 00:36:39,680
Speaker 5: Leaning under right, And I mean I think the Vikings

787
00:36:39,680 --> 00:36:42,799
Speaker 5: certainly want him to have over three hundred touches. It's

788
00:36:42,840 --> 00:36:45,560
Speaker 5: just about, you know, the injury risk and maybe elimiting

789
00:36:45,640 --> 00:36:47,840
Speaker 5: him just to make sure that he stays healthy. But

790
00:36:48,000 --> 00:36:50,600
Speaker 5: like you mentioned, if you looked at the four games

791
00:36:50,640 --> 00:36:54,560
Speaker 5: where Skonsky is, oh see, you know he got a

792
00:36:54,600 --> 00:36:57,120
Speaker 5: ton of touches and that's when feelings start to drop off. So,

793
00:36:57,520 --> 00:36:59,360
Speaker 5: you know, I think they do want to be more balanced.

794
00:36:59,360 --> 00:37:02,440
Speaker 5: But with Cook, I think you have to monitors work

795
00:37:02,480 --> 00:37:04,640
Speaker 5: forth a little bit just to make sure he stays healthy.

796
00:37:04,680 --> 00:37:06,479
Speaker 5: So that's why I was nervous about setting this line.

797
00:37:06,760 --> 00:37:08,560
Speaker 5: I figured, you guys are that under so I just

798
00:37:08,600 --> 00:37:09,720
Speaker 5: have to hope he stays healthy.

799
00:37:09,960 --> 00:37:12,440
Speaker 4: We should real quick, I guess, because this has been

800
00:37:12,520 --> 00:37:14,719
Speaker 4: kind of a theme of the show. Any thoughts on

801
00:37:14,840 --> 00:37:17,480
Speaker 4: just like how you guys go about projecting games way

802
00:37:17,800 --> 00:37:19,960
Speaker 4: for guys, especially at the running back position, where I

803
00:37:20,000 --> 00:37:21,040
Speaker 4: think it's most relevant.

804
00:37:21,239 --> 00:37:24,719
Speaker 5: Yeah, I typically hove around missing about game and a

805
00:37:24,760 --> 00:37:28,080
Speaker 5: half to two games. You know, backup running back, they're

806
00:37:28,160 --> 00:37:30,000
Speaker 5: less likely to miss games because we're not getting as

807
00:37:30,080 --> 00:37:32,359
Speaker 5: many touches. So I use it on a player by

808
00:37:32,440 --> 00:37:35,200
Speaker 5: player basis. You know, a guy like Cook, I'm projecting

809
00:37:35,280 --> 00:37:38,880
Speaker 5: let me see probably fourteen games. Where's more durable backs

810
00:37:38,920 --> 00:37:41,680
Speaker 5: all push fifteen games. But it's it's more of a

811
00:37:41,680 --> 00:37:45,160
Speaker 5: feel thing, and I try not to overweight past injury

812
00:37:45,239 --> 00:37:48,160
Speaker 5: history too much. And I do look at the players age.

813
00:37:48,840 --> 00:37:51,440
Speaker 5: You know, younger players between you know, twenty two and

814
00:37:51,600 --> 00:37:55,319
Speaker 5: twenty five. I would expect to overcome their injury history

815
00:37:55,360 --> 00:37:58,160
Speaker 5: a little bit better than others. So it's a case

816
00:37:58,200 --> 00:38:00,920
Speaker 5: by case basis, but I have around fourteen.

817
00:38:00,520 --> 00:38:01,000
Speaker 3: And a half.

818
00:38:01,520 --> 00:38:04,280
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm right there with Sean. If it's like fourteen

819
00:38:04,320 --> 00:38:06,600
Speaker 2: and a half to fifteen is normally where I slaughtered.

820
00:38:06,719 --> 00:38:10,920
Speaker 2: Just as Sean mentioned, depending on age, you know, injury history,

821
00:38:10,960 --> 00:38:13,799
Speaker 2: things like that, and yeah, I for guys older, I

822
00:38:13,840 --> 00:38:16,200
Speaker 2: will tend to adjust that down a little bit more.

823
00:38:16,719 --> 00:38:19,400
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's I think it was Sports Injury A predictor

824
00:38:19,400 --> 00:38:21,839
Speaker 4: did a study where they found that just looking at

825
00:38:21,880 --> 00:38:24,960
Speaker 4: like past game average per year on its own is

826
00:38:25,000 --> 00:38:26,839
Speaker 4: generally it only explains I think, like something like two

827
00:38:26,920 --> 00:38:29,759
Speaker 4: or three percent of the future. So it is a

828
00:38:29,760 --> 00:38:31,600
Speaker 4: lot kind of on a case by case basis and

829
00:38:31,680 --> 00:38:33,200
Speaker 4: just a positional basis.

830
00:38:33,239 --> 00:38:36,879
Speaker 1: I remember another study done by I.

831
00:38:36,800 --> 00:38:40,000
Speaker 4: Think it was Pro Football Logic where they kind of

832
00:38:40,239 --> 00:38:42,160
Speaker 4: the one thing that was interesting was they found that

833
00:38:42,200 --> 00:38:44,520
Speaker 4: for running backs in a lot of the positions, the

834
00:38:44,560 --> 00:38:48,400
Speaker 4: snap rate didn't actually matter that much, like the game's

835
00:38:48,480 --> 00:38:52,480
Speaker 4: missed and the games available on a positional level was about.

836
00:38:52,440 --> 00:38:56,400
Speaker 1: Equal not you know, rather whether it was a starter

837
00:38:56,600 --> 00:38:57,160
Speaker 1: or a backup.

838
00:38:57,200 --> 00:38:59,160
Speaker 4: So running backs are we're the lowest that they found

839
00:38:59,160 --> 00:39:02,000
Speaker 4: at at thirteen point three, but that's the average, so yeah,

840
00:39:02,160 --> 00:39:05,319
Speaker 4: I kind of medium wise. I kind of said it

841
00:39:05,360 --> 00:39:07,719
Speaker 4: at about fourteen. Yeah, I'm looking at like their their

842
00:39:07,719 --> 00:39:09,520
Speaker 4: injury history, and if they come into the season injured,

843
00:39:09,520 --> 00:39:12,200
Speaker 4: Like if they're injured right now, that's when I usually

844
00:39:12,280 --> 00:39:14,200
Speaker 4: kind of dock off another half games.

845
00:39:14,360 --> 00:39:16,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's a that's a really good point right on.

846
00:39:16,840 --> 00:39:18,400
Speaker 1: Yeah, because it's been proven.

847
00:39:18,440 --> 00:39:20,799
Speaker 4: I think four for four get a study a number

848
00:39:20,800 --> 00:39:23,040
Speaker 4: of years ago where they looked at kind of when

849
00:39:23,080 --> 00:39:26,000
Speaker 4: a player appears on an injury report once. I think

850
00:39:26,040 --> 00:39:28,200
Speaker 4: it's like fifteen percent or something more likely. So yeah,

851
00:39:28,239 --> 00:39:30,759
Speaker 4: that kind of all equals out to, yeah, like off

852
00:39:30,760 --> 00:39:31,319
Speaker 4: another game.

853
00:39:32,000 --> 00:39:34,960
Speaker 5: All right, heading over to the South, let's start with

854
00:39:35,000 --> 00:39:38,360
Speaker 5: the Falcons. This is basically my favorite prop to project

855
00:39:38,480 --> 00:39:42,120
Speaker 5: year to year is Julio Jones receiving touchdowns. I have

856
00:39:42,160 --> 00:39:43,719
Speaker 5: it at seven and a half.

857
00:39:44,120 --> 00:39:47,480
Speaker 2: My heart wants to take the over, but I'm taking

858
00:39:47,480 --> 00:39:49,840
Speaker 2: the under. But I think that's pretty close.

859
00:39:50,160 --> 00:39:52,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, I have it right under it. I'm trying to

860
00:39:52,200 --> 00:39:55,040
Speaker 1: find one I can go over here. I have it

861
00:39:55,200 --> 00:39:55,920
Speaker 1: right under it.

862
00:39:56,080 --> 00:39:58,080
Speaker 5: Just by saying that, I'll make sure next next couple

863
00:39:58,080 --> 00:39:59,920
Speaker 5: of products. I'll I'll adjust a line for.

864
00:40:01,120 --> 00:40:03,680
Speaker 1: But no, I think I think that's a good one.

865
00:40:04,360 --> 00:40:08,960
Speaker 4: I think that you can't overweight for anyone touchdowns. I mean, granted,

866
00:40:09,080 --> 00:40:11,440
Speaker 4: Julio has had some bad touchdown which he's had some

867
00:40:11,440 --> 00:40:16,160
Speaker 4: struggles in the red zone. However, Steve Starkesian didn't seem

868
00:40:16,160 --> 00:40:18,840
Speaker 4: to especially that first year, didn't really seem to know

869
00:40:18,840 --> 00:40:20,440
Speaker 4: what he was doing as far as getting him the

870
00:40:20,480 --> 00:40:20,919
Speaker 4: ball there.

871
00:40:20,960 --> 00:40:25,799
Speaker 1: So you have the cutter back here. I think, uh, I.

872
00:40:25,719 --> 00:40:29,759
Speaker 4: Think you kind of expect Julio to kind of even

873
00:40:29,800 --> 00:40:33,520
Speaker 4: out to his career average. And the one thing about

874
00:40:33,560 --> 00:40:36,160
Speaker 4: touchdowns first seas, it just takes quite a long time

875
00:40:36,360 --> 00:40:40,200
Speaker 4: for that touchdown rate to stabilize, takes you know, hundreds

876
00:40:40,200 --> 00:40:43,520
Speaker 4: of targets, so I can't you can't go too well

877
00:40:43,560 --> 00:40:43,799
Speaker 4: on that.

878
00:40:43,840 --> 00:40:44,759
Speaker 1: But I think seven is.

879
00:40:44,719 --> 00:40:48,480
Speaker 4: Fair, especially you know, given his targets share, he's probably

880
00:40:48,480 --> 00:40:50,000
Speaker 4: still going to be the one of the most targeted

881
00:40:50,000 --> 00:40:50,600
Speaker 4: receivers MO week.

882
00:40:50,840 --> 00:40:52,680
Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean, I can't set that six and a half.

883
00:40:52,719 --> 00:40:54,120
Speaker 5: I can't set that eight and a half. So I

884
00:40:54,160 --> 00:40:55,799
Speaker 5: had I had to do seven and a half. But

885
00:40:55,880 --> 00:40:57,680
Speaker 5: I mean he's one of those guys where obviously he

886
00:40:57,719 --> 00:41:00,960
Speaker 5: has the physique, skill set and offense to be putting

887
00:41:01,000 --> 00:41:03,160
Speaker 5: up ten touchdowns a year and he's only done at

888
00:41:03,200 --> 00:41:06,479
Speaker 5: once and ironically that was with der Cutter at the Helm.

889
00:41:06,560 --> 00:41:10,080
Speaker 5: So maybe he'll bring back that magic. But I've just

890
00:41:10,280 --> 00:41:13,759
Speaker 5: basically given up and given him his career rate of

891
00:41:13,840 --> 00:41:15,480
Speaker 5: seven point three. I think that's what we got to

892
00:41:15,520 --> 00:41:17,560
Speaker 5: do now. And you know, we have to wonder if

893
00:41:17,600 --> 00:41:20,360
Speaker 5: he's gonna start breaking down a bit third, you know,

894
00:41:20,400 --> 00:41:21,800
Speaker 5: on the wrong side of thirty.

895
00:41:22,440 --> 00:41:25,080
Speaker 3: So I think seven half is fair. But I'm always

896
00:41:25,160 --> 00:41:26,120
Speaker 3: rooting for the over on.

897
00:41:26,080 --> 00:41:29,319
Speaker 5: This and just come to just accept that he's, you know,

898
00:41:29,480 --> 00:41:32,239
Speaker 5: just a low touchdown rate kind of guy.

899
00:41:32,400 --> 00:41:33,759
Speaker 4: I mean, we don't have this on that on the

900
00:41:33,800 --> 00:41:36,840
Speaker 4: out one. But I'm just curious to you guys quick thoughts.

901
00:41:37,120 --> 00:41:40,600
Speaker 4: More touchdowns Ridley or Julio.

902
00:41:41,160 --> 00:41:43,560
Speaker 3: I'm gonna go with Ridley, believe it or not.

903
00:41:44,160 --> 00:41:46,680
Speaker 1: And I have him point three more than Julio right now.

904
00:41:47,200 --> 00:41:51,320
Speaker 2: Yeah, I closed my projections down for Atlanta. Let me

905
00:41:51,360 --> 00:41:53,560
Speaker 2: pull back up. But I believe from the hip I

906
00:41:53,600 --> 00:41:55,800
Speaker 2: had Ridley higher. Yeah, I do. I have Redley higher.

907
00:41:55,920 --> 00:41:58,360
Speaker 6: I mean I have about the same, yeah, And I

908
00:41:58,360 --> 00:42:00,760
Speaker 6: mean and that is with again, like I do incorporate

909
00:42:00,800 --> 00:42:03,160
Speaker 6: you know how long it takes these rates to stabilize,

910
00:42:03,160 --> 00:42:05,719
Speaker 6: and even then, you know, with Ridley's rookie season and

911
00:42:06,040 --> 00:42:08,640
Speaker 6: regressing it to the mean and all that, he actually

912
00:42:08,640 --> 00:42:10,200
Speaker 6: still comes out slightly ahead of rules.

913
00:42:10,280 --> 00:42:12,320
Speaker 1: I thought that was thought that was an interesting question,

914
00:42:12,719 --> 00:42:13,080
Speaker 1: all right.

915
00:42:13,160 --> 00:42:17,839
Speaker 5: Moving on to the Panthers DJ Moore. For him, we're

916
00:42:17,840 --> 00:42:21,279
Speaker 5: gonna have to do total rushing and receiving yards and

917
00:42:21,360 --> 00:42:24,160
Speaker 5: I'm actually setting his number exactly what he.

918
00:42:24,200 --> 00:42:28,120
Speaker 3: Had last year. Very creative of me, nine to sixty

919
00:42:28,120 --> 00:42:28,600
Speaker 3: and a half.

920
00:42:30,360 --> 00:42:33,640
Speaker 2: I will easily take the over. I'm probably wrong, but

921
00:42:33,680 --> 00:42:34,480
Speaker 2: I will take the over.

922
00:42:35,440 --> 00:42:37,279
Speaker 5: And to be clear, I mean I'm not expecting the

923
00:42:37,280 --> 00:42:40,400
Speaker 5: same production. I think he missed two games. I'll off

924
00:42:40,440 --> 00:42:43,520
Speaker 5: to see, but that was he played a full sixteen

925
00:42:43,520 --> 00:42:47,279
Speaker 5: game season, so I'm obviously having his per game rate

926
00:42:47,360 --> 00:42:50,840
Speaker 5: much higher this year, but factoring in a game or

927
00:42:50,880 --> 00:42:51,799
Speaker 5: two missed.

928
00:42:52,239 --> 00:42:54,799
Speaker 2: I mean, the big thing is, I mean, it's not

929
00:42:54,840 --> 00:42:57,840
Speaker 2: like Tyreek Hill level, but like they actually really like

930
00:42:57,960 --> 00:43:01,600
Speaker 2: to get that guy running, and he's been a pretty

931
00:43:01,600 --> 00:43:04,840
Speaker 2: competent runner. He was last year he was in college

932
00:43:05,080 --> 00:43:08,120
Speaker 2: and he was One of the big questions is whether

933
00:43:08,200 --> 00:43:11,440
Speaker 2: his yards after the catch efficiency is going to regress,

934
00:43:11,600 --> 00:43:14,480
Speaker 2: and I think it will because he was just amazing

935
00:43:15,040 --> 00:43:16,840
Speaker 2: after the catch last year. But I think he is

936
00:43:16,920 --> 00:43:19,719
Speaker 2: going to see increased target share with Devin funcchis no

937
00:43:19,800 --> 00:43:23,160
Speaker 2: longer with the team, so I will take the over.

938
00:43:23,280 --> 00:43:25,800
Speaker 2: I think we're going to see a pretty big second

939
00:43:25,840 --> 00:43:29,279
Speaker 2: year I don't want to say leap, but I don't know,

940
00:43:29,560 --> 00:43:33,719
Speaker 2: pretty big second year development from him. He was basically

941
00:43:33,760 --> 00:43:37,040
Speaker 2: as good as you could ask any non Randy Moss

942
00:43:37,120 --> 00:43:39,840
Speaker 2: twenty one year old rookie receiver to be in the league.

943
00:43:40,320 --> 00:43:42,359
Speaker 4: Yeah, this is another one where I mean, I think

944
00:43:42,360 --> 00:43:46,080
Speaker 4: the line is good. I'm slightly under I you know,

945
00:43:46,080 --> 00:43:48,960
Speaker 4: I have him. I like him to kind of exactly

946
00:43:48,960 --> 00:43:51,959
Speaker 4: what Friedman said. I think value wise, though, I tend

947
00:43:51,960 --> 00:43:55,440
Speaker 4: to target Curtis Samuel because for you know, once Samuel

948
00:43:55,480 --> 00:43:57,960
Speaker 4: became a full time player, him and More were neck

949
00:43:58,000 --> 00:44:02,399
Speaker 4: and neck in production across allies that the way.

950
00:44:02,960 --> 00:44:03,200
Speaker 1: Yeah.

951
00:44:03,280 --> 00:44:06,880
Speaker 4: Yeah, So and you know, again, you can't look at

952
00:44:06,920 --> 00:44:09,600
Speaker 4: just pass miss games in a vacuum. So I think

953
00:44:09,680 --> 00:44:12,560
Speaker 4: there's a chance Greg Olsen is still a factor. You'll

954
00:44:12,560 --> 00:44:14,719
Speaker 4: have to have Ian Thomas and you have Christian McCaffrey

955
00:44:14,719 --> 00:44:17,480
Speaker 4: eating up probably over twenty percent of that target share

956
00:44:18,200 --> 00:44:21,640
Speaker 4: yet again, So I that's the only thing I think there.

957
00:44:21,680 --> 00:44:23,480
Speaker 4: It's kind of a thing where they could spread the

958
00:44:23,480 --> 00:44:26,120
Speaker 4: ball around a little bit, but I.

959
00:44:26,040 --> 00:44:27,960
Speaker 1: Think more will continue to be efficient.

960
00:44:28,000 --> 00:44:31,319
Speaker 4: But you have to, from a projection standpoint, factor in

961
00:44:31,360 --> 00:44:34,680
Speaker 4: some efficiency regression. So I have him kind of, you know,

962
00:44:35,080 --> 00:44:38,080
Speaker 4: exceeding his targets from what he did last year. But

963
00:44:38,600 --> 00:44:42,320
Speaker 4: with that, with that regression, he kind of goes just

964
00:44:42,320 --> 00:44:45,759
Speaker 4: just below the line. That's Sewan, Wait up all right.

965
00:44:45,800 --> 00:44:47,520
Speaker 5: Heading over to the Saints, I have a couple of

966
00:44:47,560 --> 00:44:50,840
Speaker 5: projections for them, the first one being Trey qwon Smith

967
00:44:51,360 --> 00:44:55,399
Speaker 5: total receptions. I'm hoping I can get a raybond over

968
00:44:55,440 --> 00:44:58,360
Speaker 5: here over in our thirty six.

969
00:44:58,160 --> 00:44:59,879
Speaker 3: And a half let me go.

970
00:45:00,400 --> 00:45:03,759
Speaker 1: I'm actually not too both. Oh, you don't believe this.

971
00:45:03,800 --> 00:45:05,960
Speaker 1: You won't believe that is a great line, Sean, you

972
00:45:06,000 --> 00:45:06,840
Speaker 1: will not believe this.

973
00:45:07,719 --> 00:45:11,200
Speaker 4: I have him thirty six, I have him thirty six.

974
00:45:11,280 --> 00:45:13,120
Speaker 4: You you missed me by half of this.

975
00:45:13,640 --> 00:45:15,760
Speaker 3: Yeah, I thought about floating thirty five and a half.

976
00:45:15,920 --> 00:45:17,880
Speaker 1: Oh, I have him.

977
00:45:18,320 --> 00:45:21,080
Speaker 2: I have him at thirty seven point four.

978
00:45:21,520 --> 00:45:23,200
Speaker 1: Oh, that's it's right there.

979
00:45:23,280 --> 00:45:27,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, So I mean I'll take the obligatory over Raymond,

980
00:45:27,800 --> 00:45:29,640
Speaker 2: you take the under, but like that, I think that

981
00:45:29,800 --> 00:45:32,319
Speaker 2: line is personally not as good as it could be.

982
00:45:32,719 --> 00:45:37,319
Speaker 4: And you know, to be transparent, you know, I do

983
00:45:37,560 --> 00:45:40,640
Speaker 4: tend to expect second year jumps from from most players.

984
00:45:40,640 --> 00:45:43,239
Speaker 4: I'm a little concerned with the fact that tray Coon

985
00:45:43,320 --> 00:45:45,799
Speaker 4: Smith kind of peaked early in the year and then

986
00:45:46,000 --> 00:45:47,759
Speaker 4: as the year went on he kind of regressed a

987
00:45:47,800 --> 00:45:50,439
Speaker 4: little bit, especially it seemed like they needed another guy

988
00:45:50,480 --> 00:45:53,000
Speaker 4: to step up. He was unable to be that guy.

989
00:45:53,000 --> 00:45:54,600
Speaker 4: So that's what kind of gives me pause. But I

990
00:45:54,640 --> 00:45:58,560
Speaker 4: do have him about a percentage point ahead of Ted

991
00:45:58,640 --> 00:46:01,600
Speaker 4: Ginn in target share at this point. But it's just

992
00:46:01,680 --> 00:46:04,239
Speaker 4: tough to really know if he will fully kind of

993
00:46:04,239 --> 00:46:06,840
Speaker 4: take over that job from Gin and at what point

994
00:46:07,040 --> 00:46:09,760
Speaker 4: or because gin was also heavily involved in those four

995
00:46:10,280 --> 00:46:12,640
Speaker 4: games when he came back from injury, And I mean,

996
00:46:13,120 --> 00:46:14,759
Speaker 4: you tend to think these older guys are going to

997
00:46:14,800 --> 00:46:16,960
Speaker 4: fade away, but the Saints have their own ways, and

998
00:46:17,040 --> 00:46:20,080
Speaker 4: you know, when your quarterback is forty and he's hanging

999
00:46:20,160 --> 00:46:22,520
Speaker 4: in there, you can't just say, oh, hey, you're you're

1000
00:46:22,640 --> 00:46:25,239
Speaker 4: receiver and you're thirty or thirty three, you're out of here.

1001
00:46:25,320 --> 00:46:28,120
Speaker 4: So yeah, it's a tough one to project right now.

1002
00:46:28,200 --> 00:46:30,000
Speaker 5: Yeah, and I think if you if you draft Trey

1003
00:46:30,040 --> 00:46:31,839
Speaker 5: Con Smith, you have to get yourself a Ted Dan

1004
00:46:31,880 --> 00:46:34,400
Speaker 5: voodoo doll because you're gonna be pissed off when they

1005
00:46:34,719 --> 00:46:37,200
Speaker 5: still trot him out there and run him over Trey

1006
00:46:37,239 --> 00:46:39,560
Speaker 5: Coon Smith. But it was disappointing. You know, you had

1007
00:46:39,600 --> 00:46:41,800
Speaker 5: that ten games stretch with gain out and he didn't

1008
00:46:41,800 --> 00:46:44,080
Speaker 5: really take advantage of it. Had a couple of massive games,

1009
00:46:44,080 --> 00:46:48,360
Speaker 5: but you know, he didn't top fifty receiving yards in

1010
00:46:48,400 --> 00:46:51,719
Speaker 5: any other games. So with three games where we had

1011
00:46:51,800 --> 00:46:55,439
Speaker 5: zero receptions. So he's He's definitely sporadic and probably best

1012
00:46:55,480 --> 00:46:57,680
Speaker 5: for best ball if we want to talk about fancy strategy.

1013
00:46:57,719 --> 00:47:00,239
Speaker 5: But I'm excited to see if he can take over

1014
00:47:00,280 --> 00:47:03,040
Speaker 5: ted again. And yeah, I don't think this prop is

1015
00:47:03,080 --> 00:47:04,680
Speaker 5: going to be close. I think it's gonna be like

1016
00:47:05,280 --> 00:47:06,839
Speaker 5: thirty or eighty, who knows.

1017
00:47:06,960 --> 00:47:09,920
Speaker 4: But it's interesting because I heard something on a camp

1018
00:47:10,320 --> 00:47:12,000
Speaker 4: I think it was earlier this year talk or maybe

1019
00:47:12,000 --> 00:47:13,799
Speaker 4: it was like a recap of as season from I

1020
00:47:13,800 --> 00:47:16,320
Speaker 4: forget who the writer was, but I think it was

1021
00:47:16,360 --> 00:47:18,319
Speaker 4: a beat writer. It's kind of saying one of the

1022
00:47:18,360 --> 00:47:20,960
Speaker 4: things about Smith was that they they kind of envisioned

1023
00:47:21,000 --> 00:47:23,239
Speaker 4: him as like a big slot at one point, and

1024
00:47:23,239 --> 00:47:25,399
Speaker 4: then because of the get injury, he didn't really get

1025
00:47:25,400 --> 00:47:27,760
Speaker 4: to take over that role. And then Michael Thomas also

1026
00:47:28,239 --> 00:47:30,799
Speaker 4: kind of really you know, kind of ran away with

1027
00:47:30,800 --> 00:47:31,160
Speaker 4: that role.

1028
00:47:31,200 --> 00:47:33,480
Speaker 1: So I think that might have had something to do

1029
00:47:33,520 --> 00:47:33,719
Speaker 1: with it.

1030
00:47:33,719 --> 00:47:35,880
Speaker 4: I'm not sure how much he actually practiced in the

1031
00:47:35,960 --> 00:47:38,840
Speaker 4: gain role heading into two aass seasons.

1032
00:47:39,560 --> 00:47:43,040
Speaker 2: Rayveon to your point earlier about how you're kind of

1033
00:47:43,080 --> 00:47:46,239
Speaker 2: just splitting that that number two role between Gin and

1034
00:47:46,239 --> 00:47:49,719
Speaker 2: Trey Kuan Smith. I'm exactly there with you, So, yeah,

1035
00:47:50,000 --> 00:47:52,600
Speaker 2: I think it really is Ted Gin dependent.

1036
00:47:53,200 --> 00:47:59,920
Speaker 5: Yeah. Next up, Latavious Murray. Total rushing and receiving touchdowns

1037
00:48:01,040 --> 00:48:02,400
Speaker 5: over under seven and a half.

1038
00:48:03,280 --> 00:48:06,920
Speaker 2: I literally have this at seven point seven and six,

1039
00:48:07,520 --> 00:48:09,759
Speaker 2: So I'm I mean, I'm on the over, but I'm

1040
00:48:10,040 --> 00:48:10,879
Speaker 2: right there.

1041
00:48:11,680 --> 00:48:14,440
Speaker 1: I am going I'm going under.

1042
00:48:15,160 --> 00:48:17,120
Speaker 4: I just that's a lot of touchdowns for a guy

1043
00:48:17,160 --> 00:48:21,160
Speaker 4: who's gonna be behind a guy who's probably gonna get,

1044
00:48:21,600 --> 00:48:24,400
Speaker 4: you know, fifteen to twenty touches the game in Alvin Kamara.

1045
00:48:24,840 --> 00:48:26,799
Speaker 1: I think that isn't This is another guy where yeah, it.

1046
00:48:26,760 --> 00:48:30,640
Speaker 4: Could, it could go potentially way over, but you know,

1047
00:48:30,719 --> 00:48:32,759
Speaker 4: Mike mark Ingram's role in the pass the game last

1048
00:48:32,840 --> 00:48:35,359
Speaker 4: year was reduced a little bit. Murray not even as

1049
00:48:35,360 --> 00:48:38,120
Speaker 4: good of a pass catcher, I would say as Ingram,

1050
00:48:38,239 --> 00:48:40,680
Speaker 4: So you know, those chances still, you know, could add

1051
00:48:40,760 --> 00:48:43,440
Speaker 4: up to maybe a touchdown or to a lost And

1052
00:48:43,520 --> 00:48:47,560
Speaker 4: I also remember talking about this heading into last year's season,

1053
00:48:47,600 --> 00:48:49,279
Speaker 4: which is why it was kind of down on Ingram

1054
00:48:49,320 --> 00:48:52,360
Speaker 4: a bit, was that they were using Kamara as the

1055
00:48:52,400 --> 00:48:55,279
Speaker 4: going back quite a bit at the end of the

1056
00:48:55,320 --> 00:48:59,359
Speaker 4: twenty seventeen season into the postseason. So I think Murray

1057
00:48:59,400 --> 00:49:02,120
Speaker 4: will essentially be the replacement for Ingram, but that doesn't

1058
00:49:02,120 --> 00:49:05,279
Speaker 4: necessarily mean he's going to be like the goal line back.

1059
00:49:05,320 --> 00:49:07,320
Speaker 4: He's just gonna be a guy that kind of mixes

1060
00:49:07,360 --> 00:49:10,360
Speaker 4: in for those, you know, maybe eight to twelve touches

1061
00:49:10,400 --> 00:49:13,480
Speaker 4: here in a game, but they're not necessarily going to

1062
00:49:13,520 --> 00:49:16,160
Speaker 4: be at the goal line all the time. So I

1063
00:49:16,200 --> 00:49:18,720
Speaker 4: don't think you can just kind of pre eight touchdowns

1064
00:49:18,800 --> 00:49:20,360
Speaker 4: a lot. I just think it's a lot of touchdowns

1065
00:49:20,360 --> 00:49:21,560
Speaker 4: for a guy in that role.

1066
00:49:21,960 --> 00:49:24,279
Speaker 5: Yeah, especially you know with them around the goal line,

1067
00:49:24,320 --> 00:49:28,359
Speaker 5: you have Taysom Hill play and even zachline vultures. I

1068
00:49:28,400 --> 00:49:30,719
Speaker 5: agree that you're not the Saints, but you know, he

1069
00:49:30,760 --> 00:49:32,960
Speaker 5: could fill in that marketing room role. And you know,

1070
00:49:33,000 --> 00:49:34,760
Speaker 5: I agree that he's not as good of a receiver

1071
00:49:34,800 --> 00:49:37,120
Speaker 5: as Ingram, but he's still a competent receiver, so in

1072
00:49:37,160 --> 00:49:40,359
Speaker 5: this offense he could thrive in. Interestingly enough, he's never

1073
00:49:40,400 --> 00:49:43,200
Speaker 5: scored a receiving touchdown, so I'm actually betting on him

1074
00:49:43,239 --> 00:49:45,680
Speaker 5: doing that this year. It has one hundred and twenty

1075
00:49:45,680 --> 00:49:50,719
Speaker 5: three receptions and zero touchdowns. I'm betting on regression in

1076
00:49:50,800 --> 00:49:53,840
Speaker 5: the positive sense here, and that's why that's the factor

1077
00:49:53,920 --> 00:49:56,839
Speaker 5: that I have him scoring a rushing receiving touchdown this year.

1078
00:49:57,280 --> 00:49:59,800
Speaker 4: And if Kamar is out, I mean they can't go

1079
00:50:00,800 --> 00:50:04,080
Speaker 4: if the expectation goes from like you know, maybe you know,

1080
00:50:04,239 --> 00:50:09,000
Speaker 4: point four a game to like right, And to be fair,

1081
00:50:09,400 --> 00:50:10,960
Speaker 4: I do have that factored in.

1082
00:50:11,080 --> 00:50:14,600
Speaker 5: If Kamara were to play sixteen games, his projection for

1083
00:50:14,640 --> 00:50:17,320
Speaker 5: me maybe like six point three. So I do factor

1084
00:50:17,360 --> 00:50:20,040
Speaker 5: in you know, those game or two missed into this.

1085
00:50:20,239 --> 00:50:23,520
Speaker 5: But yeah, kamor missus any time. He's what is he

1086
00:50:23,560 --> 00:50:25,280
Speaker 5: a low end RB one at least?

1087
00:50:25,680 --> 00:50:27,279
Speaker 4: Yeah, at least I mean he has he I mean

1088
00:50:27,320 --> 00:50:30,360
Speaker 4: he has potential. He's no, he has top five potential

1089
00:50:30,480 --> 00:50:32,200
Speaker 4: just being in that offense. I mean, they've shown that

1090
00:50:32,239 --> 00:50:34,880
Speaker 4: they want to be run heavy these last couple of years.

1091
00:50:35,239 --> 00:50:38,279
Speaker 2: Ray volunteer your point about mark Ingram being not as

1092
00:50:38,360 --> 00:50:40,319
Speaker 2: much of a score last year as he was the

1093
00:50:40,400 --> 00:50:43,960
Speaker 2: year previously. So in twenty seventeen he had twelve touchdowns.

1094
00:50:44,320 --> 00:50:47,160
Speaker 2: Last year, he still had seven touchdowns in just twelve games.

1095
00:50:47,160 --> 00:50:51,440
Speaker 2: So even if Latavius Murray isn't getting the usage that

1096
00:50:51,600 --> 00:50:54,279
Speaker 2: Ingram was getting when he was really the goal line guy,

1097
00:50:54,360 --> 00:50:57,880
Speaker 2: he could still end up getting eight touchdowns. So it's

1098
00:50:58,320 --> 00:51:00,680
Speaker 2: I think there's a lot of potential, Like it wouldn't

1099
00:51:00,719 --> 00:51:03,680
Speaker 2: be surprising if Latavious Murray had like twelve touchdowns when

1100
00:51:03,680 --> 00:51:04,439
Speaker 2: the season's over.

1101
00:51:04,920 --> 00:51:06,120
Speaker 3: Yeah, it makes sense you.

1102
00:51:06,280 --> 00:51:08,520
Speaker 5: I mean, there's no reason to have Cam banging in

1103
00:51:08,600 --> 00:51:10,960
Speaker 5: goal line touchdowns. Just give him the Murray and you know,

1104
00:51:11,040 --> 00:51:13,920
Speaker 5: preserve Kamara for what he's really good at.

1105
00:51:14,040 --> 00:51:15,160
Speaker 2: I mean I would say I.

1106
00:51:15,120 --> 00:51:17,400
Speaker 4: Would say, I mean, I think the reason he bangs

1107
00:51:17,400 --> 00:51:19,719
Speaker 4: those in though, like not many people could bang those in,

1108
00:51:19,800 --> 00:51:21,759
Speaker 4: Like he has a balance like he might be he

1109
00:51:21,840 --> 00:51:24,480
Speaker 4: might have balanced in the league. I've seen him score

1110
00:51:25,440 --> 00:51:27,799
Speaker 4: some touchdowns at the gold line where any other back

1111
00:51:27,800 --> 00:51:30,120
Speaker 4: would have just got like pushed out of bounds latterly,

1112
00:51:30,400 --> 00:51:33,239
Speaker 4: and Kamara just like bounces off and somehow like sneaks in.

1113
00:51:33,440 --> 00:51:35,960
Speaker 1: It's like I can get it. But yeah, I'm with you.

1114
00:51:36,000 --> 00:51:37,160
Speaker 1: I agree both of you guys.

1115
00:51:36,960 --> 00:51:39,319
Speaker 4: On everything is just yeah, like conservative. I guess my

1116
00:51:39,320 --> 00:51:41,480
Speaker 4: projections are on the conservative side.

1117
00:51:41,480 --> 00:51:44,239
Speaker 1: And uh yeah, and just for.

1118
00:51:44,160 --> 00:51:46,239
Speaker 5: The record, homework guy that I forgot to mention is

1119
00:51:46,520 --> 00:51:49,319
Speaker 5: you know he's competing with for goalheinm Carries is Drew

1120
00:51:49,320 --> 00:51:54,959
Speaker 5: Brees himself. Yeah, Drew Brees the pylon stretch play. Next

1121
00:51:55,040 --> 00:51:57,680
Speaker 5: up to close up the South, we have the Buccaneers

1122
00:51:58,640 --> 00:52:03,760
Speaker 5: and Chris Godwin. Total receiving yards. I have it set

1123
00:52:03,920 --> 00:52:05,480
Speaker 5: at nine to fifty and a half.

1124
00:52:05,800 --> 00:52:08,200
Speaker 1: Oooh, I'm over finally.

1125
00:52:09,239 --> 00:52:11,520
Speaker 3: I don't feel good about that one either. Man.

1126
00:52:12,600 --> 00:52:14,719
Speaker 2: I am over, but I'm just barely over.

1127
00:52:15,920 --> 00:52:19,640
Speaker 4: I mean, Bruce Arian's coming in more slot for God.

1128
00:52:19,680 --> 00:52:21,279
Speaker 4: When we saw what he was able to do with

1129
00:52:21,600 --> 00:52:24,680
Speaker 4: Larry Fitzgerald taken him from you know, a perimeter to

1130
00:52:24,760 --> 00:52:26,719
Speaker 4: a slot guy, it's all there.

1131
00:52:26,719 --> 00:52:28,719
Speaker 1: It's all adding up for God.

1132
00:52:28,760 --> 00:52:31,640
Speaker 4: When I mean you know that he can do the

1133
00:52:31,680 --> 00:52:33,920
Speaker 4: downfield thing, if he can do the slot thing, he

1134
00:52:34,000 --> 00:52:36,960
Speaker 4: essentially is like that that that mix of a in

1135
00:52:37,000 --> 00:52:39,680
Speaker 4: the p in his prime Larry Fitzgerald, that arians kind

1136
00:52:39,680 --> 00:52:41,960
Speaker 4: of turned into a whole other beast.

1137
00:52:42,040 --> 00:52:44,880
Speaker 1: And the targets are there because if you look.

1138
00:52:44,719 --> 00:52:50,040
Speaker 4: At in games where Deshaun Jackson has been out these

1139
00:52:50,080 --> 00:52:56,040
Speaker 4: past two years, god Win averaging seventy three yards per game,

1140
00:52:56,200 --> 00:52:59,399
Speaker 4: so three point he catches seven point seven targets point

1141
00:52:59,400 --> 00:53:02,359
Speaker 4: sixty seven times. I think Jameis Winston likes to throw

1142
00:53:02,400 --> 00:53:03,960
Speaker 4: and likes to throw to him. I think this is

1143
00:53:03,960 --> 00:53:06,239
Speaker 4: still going to be a relative we passed heavy team,

1144
00:53:06,280 --> 00:53:08,880
Speaker 4: and you know Aaron's going to take those shots downfield.

1145
00:53:09,200 --> 00:53:12,880
Speaker 4: So if god was getting volume in because of the slot,

1146
00:53:12,960 --> 00:53:15,560
Speaker 4: just getting easy catches in addition to those downfield shots,

1147
00:53:15,600 --> 00:53:17,600
Speaker 4: I think he has monster potential.

1148
00:53:17,920 --> 00:53:19,520
Speaker 2: I'll just say I want him to be on the

1149
00:53:19,600 --> 00:53:23,960
Speaker 2: under on this, just because I think most people are

1150
00:53:24,000 --> 00:53:27,480
Speaker 2: so bullish on Godwin that they would easily take the

1151
00:53:27,560 --> 00:53:30,479
Speaker 2: over on this, and I think I'm a little more

1152
00:53:30,600 --> 00:53:34,160
Speaker 2: pessimistic on him, although I still like him, like I

1153
00:53:34,400 --> 00:53:37,399
Speaker 2: think he's a talented player, but I think this might

1154
00:53:37,400 --> 00:53:40,160
Speaker 2: sound weird. One of the things that might factor into

1155
00:53:40,239 --> 00:53:43,040
Speaker 2: whether he hits this is just like how much usage

1156
00:53:43,080 --> 00:53:46,080
Speaker 2: in the receiving game the running backs get and that

1157
00:53:46,160 --> 00:53:48,600
Speaker 2: might sound really weird, but like these are guys who

1158
00:53:48,680 --> 00:53:51,560
Speaker 2: just aren't really good pass catchers except for Andre Ellington,

1159
00:53:51,600 --> 00:53:54,440
Speaker 2: but like he's old and like just like not a roster.

1160
00:53:54,520 --> 00:53:57,760
Speaker 1: Bubble yeah, bubble yeah.

1161
00:53:57,880 --> 00:54:00,640
Speaker 2: It's like just this question of like is paid Barber

1162
00:54:00,719 --> 00:54:03,480
Speaker 2: is Ronald Jones? Like are either of these guys actually

1163
00:54:03,520 --> 00:54:07,319
Speaker 2: going to see a decent amount of targets? Because if so,

1164
00:54:07,600 --> 00:54:09,880
Speaker 2: like that has to come out of somewhere, and you know,

1165
00:54:09,960 --> 00:54:12,600
Speaker 2: I think that knocks Godwin down just a little bit.

1166
00:54:13,239 --> 00:54:15,520
Speaker 2: And then Oj Howard is he going to develop as

1167
00:54:15,560 --> 00:54:18,520
Speaker 2: a third year tight end coming back from injury? Yes,

1168
00:54:18,880 --> 00:54:23,359
Speaker 2: but uh yeah, I mean yes, it's I'm close. I'm

1169
00:54:23,400 --> 00:54:25,400
Speaker 2: close on that number that Sean gave, but I'm just

1170
00:54:25,680 --> 00:54:28,520
Speaker 2: a smidgeon to the over, which is frustrated.

1171
00:54:28,600 --> 00:54:31,240
Speaker 4: If you had, if you had, if you inherited a team,

1172
00:54:31,680 --> 00:54:34,120
Speaker 4: and because I think there was some talk about arians

1173
00:54:34,120 --> 00:54:35,719
Speaker 4: and he doesn't always involved with the tight ends. I

1174
00:54:35,719 --> 00:54:38,400
Speaker 4: mean he had like Rob Housler and John Carlson or

1175
00:54:38,400 --> 00:54:41,120
Speaker 4: whoever you had in Arizona, But like, if you inherited

1176
00:54:41,120 --> 00:54:45,200
Speaker 4: a team and one of the backs, like first of all,

1177
00:54:45,239 --> 00:54:47,360
Speaker 4: average like what one point nine yards to carry? The

1178
00:54:47,400 --> 00:54:50,520
Speaker 4: other guy is Peyton Barber. I mean, and you but

1179
00:54:50,560 --> 00:54:53,600
Speaker 4: you had oj Howard at tight end, and you had

1180
00:54:53,680 --> 00:54:56,200
Speaker 4: you know, Godwin, and you had and you don't really

1181
00:54:56,200 --> 00:54:58,399
Speaker 4: have a third receiver anymore, and you have Mike. I mean,

1182
00:54:58,400 --> 00:55:01,120
Speaker 4: what would you do? I think you would, like you

1183
00:55:01,160 --> 00:55:03,960
Speaker 4: would target the heck out of those three, those top three,

1184
00:55:04,000 --> 00:55:06,120
Speaker 4: and you would let Peyton Barbara and Ronald Jones stand

1185
00:55:06,160 --> 00:55:10,359
Speaker 4: in there and bang into linebackers and defensive ends while

1186
00:55:10,440 --> 00:55:14,440
Speaker 4: Jameis Winston is going down the field to Godwin and

1187
00:55:14,440 --> 00:55:16,960
Speaker 4: Evans and Howard. So I think those three, I mean,

1188
00:55:17,000 --> 00:55:19,239
Speaker 4: they're all being taken in the top sixty, but I

1189
00:55:19,239 --> 00:55:21,000
Speaker 4: think they have a decent shot of all paying off

1190
00:55:21,200 --> 00:55:21,920
Speaker 4: their ADPs.

1191
00:55:22,520 --> 00:55:23,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that's fair.

1192
00:55:23,680 --> 00:55:24,040
Speaker 1: All right.

1193
00:55:24,120 --> 00:55:27,919
Speaker 5: Moving on to the west, and I'm very I don't

1194
00:55:27,960 --> 00:55:30,359
Speaker 5: think I could set these number these lines high enough,

1195
00:55:30,400 --> 00:55:34,320
Speaker 5: so I'm just gonna go with it. Kyler Murray passing

1196
00:55:34,400 --> 00:55:39,440
Speaker 5: yards okay, over under three thousand, six hundred and a

1197
00:55:39,520 --> 00:55:44,480
Speaker 5: half over over Well, I don't know, all you guys

1198
00:55:44,480 --> 00:55:45,960
Speaker 5: are picking on me. You can go bet them at

1199
00:55:45,960 --> 00:55:49,160
Speaker 5: a sportsbook right now for like three thousand, two hundred.

1200
00:55:48,840 --> 00:55:50,279
Speaker 2: So yeah, I have.

1201
00:55:51,840 --> 00:55:55,640
Speaker 4: Like everything parts with total Kyler Murray, every prop I

1202
00:55:55,680 --> 00:55:56,080
Speaker 4: have them.

1203
00:55:56,360 --> 00:55:59,080
Speaker 1: I have them over four thousand yards.

1204
00:55:59,400 --> 00:56:01,919
Speaker 4: Again, you know, everyone's talking about what if he's small

1205
00:56:02,000 --> 00:56:04,919
Speaker 4: or if he gets hurt. Again, quarterbacks just don't miss

1206
00:56:04,960 --> 00:56:09,040
Speaker 4: many games, many of them ten about half the league tends.

1207
00:56:08,800 --> 00:56:11,600
Speaker 1: To start all sixteen and if you miss a game,

1208
00:56:11,680 --> 00:56:13,000
Speaker 1: usually miss no more than two.

1209
00:56:13,120 --> 00:56:16,360
Speaker 4: So I have him, you know, I think even with

1210
00:56:16,680 --> 00:56:20,600
Speaker 4: a missed game, I have him over four thousand yards.

1211
00:56:20,960 --> 00:56:23,600
Speaker 4: So I have him in you know, top top third

1212
00:56:23,600 --> 00:56:26,399
Speaker 4: percentile in terms of what what quarterbacks have done over

1213
00:56:26,400 --> 00:56:28,719
Speaker 4: the past few years in terms of yards per attempt,

1214
00:56:29,000 --> 00:56:30,799
Speaker 4: I have him, you know, better than the weaveraging that

1215
00:56:30,960 --> 00:56:32,880
Speaker 4: and so. And I think the Cardinals will be an

1216
00:56:32,960 --> 00:56:36,560
Speaker 4: up tempo team. I think they have solid pass catching

1217
00:56:36,600 --> 00:56:40,040
Speaker 4: options all around. I think Christian Kirk is also being underrated.

1218
00:56:40,280 --> 00:56:42,839
Speaker 4: I think Isabella could step in right away and kind

1219
00:56:42,840 --> 00:56:45,719
Speaker 4: of like Cooper cup did for the Rams in his

1220
00:56:45,760 --> 00:56:48,160
Speaker 4: first year. And let's not forget David Johnson still wants

1221
00:56:48,200 --> 00:56:49,200
Speaker 4: this thousand yard.

1222
00:56:49,400 --> 00:56:52,160
Speaker 1: Receiving So I think Murray will be fine.

1223
00:56:52,560 --> 00:56:55,360
Speaker 4: I think maybe it's a little tougher with the touchdowns

1224
00:56:55,360 --> 00:56:57,640
Speaker 4: because he could run some in you have David Johnson

1225
00:56:57,680 --> 00:56:59,640
Speaker 4: there who could run a ton in But but in

1226
00:56:59,719 --> 00:57:01,600
Speaker 4: terms of yarded, yeah, I think I think that's an

1227
00:57:01,600 --> 00:57:04,120
Speaker 4: over a strong over two units.

1228
00:57:04,440 --> 00:57:09,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm there with Raybon. I'll take the two units too, Sean,

1229
00:57:09,080 --> 00:57:10,880
Speaker 2: if you're willing to.

1230
00:57:10,440 --> 00:57:13,240
Speaker 3: Book that on ahead with the actual line.

1231
00:57:13,520 --> 00:57:18,120
Speaker 2: I tried to be conservative in the projections on the

1232
00:57:18,200 --> 00:57:20,960
Speaker 2: team level, on the player level, because like, there are

1233
00:57:21,000 --> 00:57:22,960
Speaker 2: so many unknowns, and I know, I just like I

1234
00:57:23,040 --> 00:57:25,680
Speaker 2: want to be bullish on Kyle Murray. So like when

1235
00:57:25,720 --> 00:57:28,720
Speaker 2: I could try to go against my instincts, I would,

1236
00:57:28,720 --> 00:57:31,080
Speaker 2: you know, bump numbers down a little bit here or there.

1237
00:57:31,280 --> 00:57:33,720
Speaker 2: But even with that said, I'm with Raybon. I'm projecting

1238
00:57:33,800 --> 00:57:36,640
Speaker 2: him for over four thousand yards and uh, I mean

1239
00:57:36,760 --> 00:57:38,800
Speaker 2: I don't know. That's just that's where I'm gonna I'm gonna, like,

1240
00:57:38,920 --> 00:57:40,920
Speaker 2: I'm planning the flag on him, like this, this is

1241
00:57:40,960 --> 00:57:42,840
Speaker 2: the guy I want in all of my fantasy teams.

1242
00:57:43,440 --> 00:57:44,560
Speaker 2: I'm fully on board.

1243
00:57:44,720 --> 00:57:47,400
Speaker 5: Yes, I'm like the current line of thirty two hundred

1244
00:57:47,440 --> 00:57:50,560
Speaker 5: to certain sports books. I mean, he's gonna have to

1245
00:57:50,640 --> 00:57:53,880
Speaker 5: miss what four games? If you bet the under, you're

1246
00:57:53,920 --> 00:57:56,520
Speaker 5: basically betting that he'll miss four games, or that they'll

1247
00:57:56,520 --> 00:58:00,360
Speaker 5: go with Brett Hunley week one. But most of these props,

1248
00:58:00,400 --> 00:58:02,280
Speaker 5: you know, they have to start week one for Action.

1249
00:58:02,400 --> 00:58:05,240
Speaker 5: So I'm really trying to figure out where the thirty

1250
00:58:05,240 --> 00:58:06,520
Speaker 5: two hundreds coming from.

1251
00:58:06,760 --> 00:58:10,640
Speaker 2: I think they're just looking at what rookies, rookie quarterbacks

1252
00:58:10,680 --> 00:58:14,200
Speaker 2: have historically done, and they're using that as their baseline.

1253
00:58:14,240 --> 00:58:16,840
Speaker 2: I don't think they're taking into account at all the

1254
00:58:16,880 --> 00:58:19,360
Speaker 2: offense that he's going to be playing in or just

1255
00:58:19,400 --> 00:58:20,880
Speaker 2: the type of player that he is.

1256
00:58:21,440 --> 00:58:24,120
Speaker 4: Yeah, because that's a great point, because yeah, maybe when

1257
00:58:24,160 --> 00:58:26,240
Speaker 4: you kind of average it out or meet whatever you do,

1258
00:58:26,280 --> 00:58:28,440
Speaker 4: look at the median, it comes out to that. But

1259
00:58:29,080 --> 00:58:31,400
Speaker 4: I wrote about this in my article on the Action

1260
00:58:31,520 --> 00:58:34,200
Speaker 4: Network about how I thought the Chiefs are essentially silly

1261
00:58:34,240 --> 00:58:38,120
Speaker 4: for wedding Patrick Mahomes sit in year one when they

1262
00:58:38,200 --> 00:58:40,360
Speaker 4: had kind of went through that lull with Alex Smith.

1263
00:58:40,880 --> 00:58:43,520
Speaker 4: And the reason was when you look back at what

1264
00:58:43,600 --> 00:58:46,640
Speaker 4: quarterbacks have been able to do in year one, the

1265
00:58:47,040 --> 00:58:50,200
Speaker 4: quarterbacks that can run, the quarterbacks that are mobile, they've

1266
00:58:50,200 --> 00:58:56,120
Speaker 4: had success right away. You know, Deshaun Watson, Russell Wilson,

1267
00:58:56,200 --> 00:58:59,720
Speaker 4: Dat Prescott, you know a lot of other names.

1268
00:59:00,040 --> 00:59:02,840
Speaker 1: Cam Newton, now it just happened.

1269
00:59:03,400 --> 00:59:06,520
Speaker 2: Even RG three, right right, yeah.

1270
00:59:06,200 --> 00:59:08,920
Speaker 1: Right, and it just so happened. It just so happened that.

1271
00:59:09,840 --> 00:59:12,680
Speaker 4: And of course this could play into it, but a

1272
00:59:12,720 --> 00:59:14,240
Speaker 4: lot of those quarterbacks just happen to be a run

1273
00:59:14,280 --> 00:59:17,440
Speaker 4: heavy offense. And so you average that out of okay,

1274
00:59:17,440 --> 00:59:19,360
Speaker 4: what these quarterbacks have done, and maybe you get to

1275
00:59:19,400 --> 00:59:20,920
Speaker 4: that that thirty two hundred number.

1276
00:59:20,920 --> 00:59:24,000
Speaker 1: But I don't think that this offense.

1277
00:59:23,760 --> 00:59:28,080
Speaker 4: Under Kingsbury is going to be necessarily a run heavy offense.

1278
00:59:28,120 --> 00:59:29,480
Speaker 4: And I think it's also going to be a pretty

1279
00:59:29,560 --> 00:59:32,760
Speaker 4: uptempo offense. And their defense, I mean that Patrick Peterson

1280
00:59:32,800 --> 00:59:38,240
Speaker 4: suspension weakends their defense considerably, oh for now essentially forty

1281
00:59:38,280 --> 00:59:42,520
Speaker 4: percent of the season. So you consider all of those factors,

1282
00:59:43,520 --> 00:59:47,120
Speaker 4: I think you have to bump up that kind of projection.

1283
00:59:47,200 --> 00:59:49,120
Speaker 4: And then and then let's be real, I don't think

1284
00:59:49,200 --> 00:59:53,280
Speaker 4: Murray is just an average rookie quarterback. He's an above

1285
00:59:53,320 --> 00:59:53,880
Speaker 4: average one.

1286
00:59:54,040 --> 00:59:56,880
Speaker 2: So Sean, you have another line for us when it

1287
00:59:56,920 --> 00:59:57,920
Speaker 2: comes to Kyler Murray.

1288
00:59:58,080 --> 00:59:59,600
Speaker 5: Yeah, and I'm hoping I could get one of you

1289
00:59:59,680 --> 01:00:01,360
Speaker 5: to compare him to Blake Portals. I don't think it's

1290
01:00:01,360 --> 01:00:04,440
Speaker 5: going to happen, but we're going for five K. So

1291
01:00:04,560 --> 01:00:06,760
Speaker 5: this one's really tricky for me, and again I don't

1292
01:00:06,800 --> 01:00:08,520
Speaker 5: know if I can said it high enough for you guys.

1293
01:00:09,640 --> 01:00:12,480
Speaker 5: I'm a little bit over sportsbooks with this one. But

1294
01:00:13,240 --> 01:00:16,360
Speaker 5: for his rushing yards, I have over under five hundred

1295
01:00:16,400 --> 01:00:17,400
Speaker 5: and fifty and a half.

1296
01:00:18,400 --> 01:00:20,320
Speaker 2: I think that's not a bad line, but I will

1297
01:00:20,360 --> 01:00:21,280
Speaker 2: still take the over.

1298
01:00:22,160 --> 01:00:25,320
Speaker 4: I actually have the under because again I just kind

1299
01:00:25,320 --> 01:00:30,120
Speaker 4: of going back to the projections and Scott Scott Barrett's

1300
01:00:30,120 --> 01:00:33,160
Speaker 4: work and it just kind of went, you know, high

1301
01:00:33,200 --> 01:00:37,080
Speaker 4: four hundreds for me, I think that it is quite

1302
01:00:37,160 --> 01:00:39,720
Speaker 4: possible that in year one he may run a little

1303
01:00:39,720 --> 01:00:42,720
Speaker 4: bit more, but then then he ends up doing over

1304
01:00:42,760 --> 01:00:46,080
Speaker 4: the course of his career. But I think people are

1305
01:00:46,320 --> 01:00:49,760
Speaker 4: are underestimating, like, you know, he is a quarterback who

1306
01:00:49,840 --> 01:00:51,440
Speaker 4: can run, and I do expect him to be, you know,

1307
01:00:51,480 --> 01:00:54,120
Speaker 4: in that mix for for one of the top rushing quarterbacks.

1308
01:00:54,120 --> 01:00:56,280
Speaker 4: But I think the plan is really going to be

1309
01:00:56,960 --> 01:01:00,240
Speaker 4: drop back, get the ball out quick, and so I

1310
01:01:00,240 --> 01:01:02,680
Speaker 4: think while he will take off, I think he'll do

1311
01:01:02,720 --> 01:01:05,880
Speaker 4: it a little more selectively than maybe we're anticipating, especially

1312
01:01:05,880 --> 01:01:08,480
Speaker 4: because you know the size. There's been all to talk

1313
01:01:08,480 --> 01:01:10,760
Speaker 4: about his size, so he could easily break one of

1314
01:01:10,760 --> 01:01:13,080
Speaker 4: those long runs and get it, you know, just you know,

1315
01:01:13,120 --> 01:01:14,720
Speaker 4: get a ninety yard run in like week five, and

1316
01:01:14,720 --> 01:01:15,280
Speaker 4: then you know that.

1317
01:01:15,400 --> 01:01:18,120
Speaker 1: Essentially he goes over. So I think that's in play.

1318
01:01:18,160 --> 01:01:20,360
Speaker 4: But if i'm if I'm projecting media and I have

1319
01:01:20,480 --> 01:01:23,720
Speaker 4: them about fifty yards under that, Yeah, just to be.

1320
01:01:23,760 --> 01:01:26,480
Speaker 5: Clear, I was fudging the numbers because I was anticipating

1321
01:01:26,560 --> 01:01:27,280
Speaker 5: both of you being over.

1322
01:01:27,320 --> 01:01:28,640
Speaker 3: But I have a closer to five twenty.

1323
01:01:28,800 --> 01:01:30,640
Speaker 1: Can't get me, can't get me that easy corner.

1324
01:01:30,920 --> 01:01:31,160
Speaker 3: Yeah.

1325
01:01:31,400 --> 01:01:34,000
Speaker 2: So so just to drive the point home on this,

1326
01:01:34,200 --> 01:01:36,680
Speaker 2: it seems as if I am higher on Kyler Murray

1327
01:01:36,720 --> 01:01:39,640
Speaker 2: than raybon Is. So just to settle that once and

1328
01:01:39,720 --> 01:01:41,000
Speaker 2: for all, I.

1329
01:01:40,920 --> 01:01:42,560
Speaker 1: Mean, where do you have you have him? I think

1330
01:01:42,600 --> 01:01:44,840
Speaker 1: we both have him third? Or do you have him second?

1331
01:01:45,600 --> 01:01:47,040
Speaker 1: Or do you just move them up whenever I'm moving.

1332
01:01:47,480 --> 01:01:50,160
Speaker 2: We'll just have to wait and see. But based on

1333
01:01:50,200 --> 01:01:51,040
Speaker 2: the numbers.

1334
01:01:50,720 --> 01:01:53,640
Speaker 1: Here, yeah, like I have them a little bit higher.

1335
01:01:53,840 --> 01:01:56,840
Speaker 5: Hey, just for our consensus projections and rankings, I'm gonna

1336
01:01:56,840 --> 01:01:59,240
Speaker 5: have to like projects for I think, just.

1337
01:01:59,200 --> 01:02:00,800
Speaker 2: To balance it out.

1338
01:02:01,200 --> 01:02:02,480
Speaker 3: Yeah, just let it just.

1339
01:02:02,480 --> 01:02:03,720
Speaker 1: Move a little, Sean, Just just.

1340
01:02:03,960 --> 01:02:08,760
Speaker 5: Well, number three guys are just blowing out of the water. Okay,

1341
01:02:08,800 --> 01:02:11,439
Speaker 5: So now for the bet that I would not take

1342
01:02:11,520 --> 01:02:16,640
Speaker 5: action on. We're going to the Rams and Todd Gurley

1343
01:02:16,720 --> 01:02:20,840
Speaker 5: total touches this year. I have no idea what you

1344
01:02:20,840 --> 01:02:23,280
Speaker 5: guys are gonna do with this, So let me update

1345
01:02:23,440 --> 01:02:27,880
Speaker 5: my head over under two hundred and thirty five and

1346
01:02:27,920 --> 01:02:29,400
Speaker 5: a half touches I.

1347
01:02:29,360 --> 01:02:33,160
Speaker 4: Have under I have under I think that I mean,

1348
01:02:33,200 --> 01:02:35,439
Speaker 4: if you look at again, you know, Darren Henderson where

1349
01:02:35,440 --> 01:02:37,480
Speaker 4: he was drafted kind of early day.

1350
01:02:37,320 --> 01:02:39,320
Speaker 1: To those backs, to the average aboute hundred and forty

1351
01:02:39,360 --> 01:02:41,840
Speaker 1: touches a year in year one.

1352
01:02:42,240 --> 01:02:46,120
Speaker 4: Uh, and I think when you look at what kind

1353
01:02:46,120 --> 01:02:48,760
Speaker 4: of grows workload was down down the stretch, and then

1354
01:02:49,000 --> 01:02:51,920
Speaker 4: after hearing all the talk and then factoring in that,

1355
01:02:52,920 --> 01:02:54,760
Speaker 4: I think he's on the wrong side of that misgame

1356
01:02:54,800 --> 01:02:55,800
Speaker 4: projection for running back.

1357
01:02:55,880 --> 01:02:56,840
Speaker 1: So you know, even.

1358
01:02:56,680 --> 01:03:00,480
Speaker 4: Though you know the average about you know, fourteen games

1359
01:03:00,520 --> 01:03:02,400
Speaker 4: a year, I'd say I haven't closer to thirteen.

1360
01:03:03,000 --> 01:03:05,640
Speaker 1: So for all those factors, I'm just going I'm going under.

1361
01:03:06,040 --> 01:03:10,480
Speaker 2: Okay, so I haven't projected for over But like the

1362
01:03:10,560 --> 01:03:13,400
Speaker 2: caveat on this is that the Rams were the first

1363
01:03:13,440 --> 01:03:17,000
Speaker 2: team I projected, So this projection is like a month old,

1364
01:03:17,520 --> 01:03:20,760
Speaker 2: and so like I feel like I should be updating

1365
01:03:20,800 --> 01:03:23,640
Speaker 2: this and like, no, I would, I would adjust that down.

1366
01:03:23,720 --> 01:03:27,320
Speaker 2: I would adjust that other thing down. And so just

1367
01:03:27,480 --> 01:03:30,320
Speaker 2: like mentally kind of calibrating this, I will take the

1368
01:03:30,440 --> 01:03:32,080
Speaker 2: under I was.

1369
01:03:32,040 --> 01:03:32,520
Speaker 3: Afraid of that.

1370
01:03:33,600 --> 01:03:36,120
Speaker 5: Yeah, don't feel too good about this projection. But like

1371
01:03:36,160 --> 01:03:39,240
Speaker 5: you said, this time here or I guess a month ago,

1372
01:03:39,280 --> 01:03:42,080
Speaker 5: we're kind of setting up sort of math foundation remodels

1373
01:03:42,120 --> 01:03:45,280
Speaker 5: and stuff, and starting now we're gonna start to you know,

1374
01:03:46,120 --> 01:03:48,439
Speaker 5: factor in the news and reports, and with him, it's

1375
01:03:48,480 --> 01:03:49,560
Speaker 5: still a bit sketchy.

1376
01:03:49,600 --> 01:03:50,440
Speaker 3: So this is this is.

1377
01:03:50,360 --> 01:03:54,240
Speaker 5: A projection that maybe change updating a lot heading into

1378
01:03:54,240 --> 01:03:56,720
Speaker 5: the season. So you know, the range on this one

1379
01:03:56,800 --> 01:04:00,760
Speaker 5: is pretty severe. But yeah, you guys can the lower

1380
01:04:00,800 --> 01:04:02,000
Speaker 5: down just the tab right now.

1381
01:04:02,160 --> 01:04:04,680
Speaker 4: I think one guy I'm getting more bullish on as

1382
01:04:04,680 --> 01:04:07,360
Speaker 4: I kind of put together and project the rams is

1383
01:04:07,440 --> 01:04:10,640
Speaker 4: Jared Goff. I think you know, everyone's kind of down

1384
01:04:10,640 --> 01:04:15,280
Speaker 4: on him after seeing the hideous performance in these three

1385
01:04:16,040 --> 01:04:19,000
Speaker 4: point effort in the Super Bowl lost to the Patriots.

1386
01:04:19,080 --> 01:04:23,000
Speaker 4: But when you it kind of sets up for golf

1387
01:04:23,040 --> 01:04:25,080
Speaker 4: to have a monster season. I mean, we've seen him

1388
01:04:25,080 --> 01:04:27,600
Speaker 4: put up good numbers, especially when Cooper cup is in

1389
01:04:27,600 --> 01:04:30,680
Speaker 4: the lineup, really put up top tier numbers for a quarterback.

1390
01:04:30,880 --> 01:04:33,440
Speaker 4: You're adding in a guy like Henderson who essentially can

1391
01:04:33,520 --> 01:04:37,160
Speaker 4: give them what Tam and Austin was never able to do.

1392
01:04:37,240 --> 01:04:40,400
Speaker 4: You're getting cut back. You have another year of familiarity

1393
01:04:40,800 --> 01:04:41,840
Speaker 4: with Brandon Cooks.

1394
01:04:41,880 --> 01:04:42,400
Speaker 3: Now.

1395
01:04:42,960 --> 01:04:44,680
Speaker 1: You know, Robert Woods has been excellent.

1396
01:04:45,360 --> 01:04:49,320
Speaker 4: Gerald Everett by all accounts, has had a really good camp.

1397
01:04:49,360 --> 01:04:50,520
Speaker 1: He's entering year three.

1398
01:04:50,520 --> 01:04:51,880
Speaker 4: There's always a lot of hope that he could kind

1399
01:04:51,880 --> 01:04:53,360
Speaker 4: of turn into a Jordan Reid type guy.

1400
01:04:53,880 --> 01:04:55,959
Speaker 1: You know, him and Higbey have been you know, maybe

1401
01:04:55,960 --> 01:04:58,320
Speaker 1: coming along with a slow and also just not huge roles.

1402
01:04:58,360 --> 01:05:00,280
Speaker 4: But I think you know, we saw a lot of

1403
01:05:00,320 --> 01:05:01,880
Speaker 4: good out of Higby in that in that playoff game

1404
01:05:01,880 --> 01:05:04,200
Speaker 4: against New Orleans. So I think it's another one of

1405
01:05:04,240 --> 01:05:06,280
Speaker 4: those situations where even if you don't believe in the

1406
01:05:06,280 --> 01:05:08,320
Speaker 4: player one hundred percent, like like kind of like the

1407
01:05:08,320 --> 01:05:10,800
Speaker 4: way you know Friedman is with the way you are

1408
01:05:10,840 --> 01:05:14,120
Speaker 4: with Trubisky, I think when you just look around at everyone,

1409
01:05:14,160 --> 01:05:16,560
Speaker 4: go's going to be throwing to. I mean, I wouldn't

1410
01:05:16,560 --> 01:05:19,120
Speaker 4: be surprised if Gosten that, you know, QB one MVP

1411
01:05:19,360 --> 01:05:22,760
Speaker 4: talk by the time things were all said and done.

1412
01:05:22,400 --> 01:05:25,680
Speaker 2: I don't entirely disagree with that. I in fact, like

1413
01:05:25,720 --> 01:05:28,320
Speaker 2: I probably agree with that more than I disagree with that.

1414
01:05:28,880 --> 01:05:31,160
Speaker 2: I have n't projected for something that I think is

1415
01:05:31,680 --> 01:05:36,040
Speaker 2: not like a high end quarterback one season, but like

1416
01:05:36,040 --> 01:05:41,320
Speaker 2: like a very respectable mid QB one season. Like if

1417
01:05:41,360 --> 01:05:45,040
Speaker 2: I weren't so bullish on Kyler Murray, I was thinking

1418
01:05:45,120 --> 01:05:48,560
Speaker 2: more about all of these other quarterbacks. But as it is,

1419
01:05:48,600 --> 01:05:51,400
Speaker 2: like I have a very respectable projection for golf.

1420
01:05:51,600 --> 01:05:54,920
Speaker 4: I mean, the only tough thing is just it's you

1421
01:05:54,960 --> 01:06:00,200
Speaker 4: don't want to over rank these non mobile guys just

1422
01:06:00,240 --> 01:06:01,480
Speaker 4: because that rushing production.

1423
01:06:01,520 --> 01:06:02,960
Speaker 1: I mean, we saw it out of Josh Allen, we

1424
01:06:03,000 --> 01:06:04,080
Speaker 1: saw it. We've seen it out of it.

1425
01:06:04,120 --> 01:06:06,040
Speaker 4: I mean Dak Prescott, even on a low volume, has

1426
01:06:06,040 --> 01:06:07,640
Speaker 4: been a top ten TV I think two out of

1427
01:06:07,680 --> 01:06:08,040
Speaker 4: three years.

1428
01:06:08,040 --> 01:06:10,120
Speaker 1: And we've just seen this Trubisky.

1429
01:06:10,200 --> 01:06:13,120
Speaker 4: You know, all this rushing projection just vaults these guys up,

1430
01:06:13,240 --> 01:06:15,920
Speaker 4: and God's not really getting that. So I don't want people,

1431
01:06:16,160 --> 01:06:18,280
Speaker 4: you know, seeing the rankings and hit he's like fifth

1432
01:06:18,400 --> 01:06:20,440
Speaker 4: or something and going out and you know, reaching for him.

1433
01:06:20,440 --> 01:06:22,680
Speaker 1: But I think, you know, as we get closer to.

1434
01:06:22,720 --> 01:06:24,840
Speaker 4: Season, I'm gonna be I'm gonna be bumping Hi up

1435
01:06:24,840 --> 01:06:26,120
Speaker 4: because I am quite bullish.

1436
01:06:26,280 --> 01:06:31,439
Speaker 5: Yeah, with Golf, his upside is his passing touchdown volatility.

1437
01:06:31,520 --> 01:06:33,520
Speaker 5: And you know, I don't have the number in front

1438
01:06:33,520 --> 01:06:36,040
Speaker 5: of it, but the Rams were by far the most

1439
01:06:36,120 --> 01:06:38,560
Speaker 5: run heavy team inside like the five yard line, so

1440
01:06:38,600 --> 01:06:41,320
Speaker 5: if they see any kind of regression there, it'll help

1441
01:06:41,360 --> 01:06:44,400
Speaker 5: Golf out. So we could see a spike in passing

1442
01:06:44,400 --> 01:06:46,080
Speaker 5: touchdowns and that's where I think he'll hit it.

1443
01:06:46,160 --> 01:06:46,480
Speaker 3: Ceiling.

1444
01:06:46,760 --> 01:06:48,400
Speaker 2: Yeah, next up the.

1445
01:06:48,360 --> 01:06:51,960
Speaker 5: Forty nine ers, I'm gonna try to set a projection

1446
01:06:52,040 --> 01:06:57,360
Speaker 5: for Tevin Coleman touches over under one hundred and seventy

1447
01:06:57,560 --> 01:06:59,360
Speaker 5: and a half touches under.

1448
01:06:59,600 --> 01:07:02,120
Speaker 1: I just don't know what his role is going to be.

1449
01:07:02,120 --> 01:07:04,240
Speaker 4: And this is another one where I mean, I don't

1450
01:07:04,240 --> 01:07:06,800
Speaker 4: know how you guys have approached it, but it's tough

1451
01:07:06,880 --> 01:07:12,080
Speaker 4: to kind of with this between Coleman Brita McKinnon. Then

1452
01:07:12,120 --> 01:07:14,160
Speaker 4: you have use check factors in more than almost any

1453
01:07:14,200 --> 01:07:17,560
Speaker 4: other flowback in the league. And you know, Moster got hurt,

1454
01:07:17,560 --> 01:07:19,480
Speaker 4: so he's probably not in that mix anymore. But he

1455
01:07:19,520 --> 01:07:20,960
Speaker 4: was the wild card for a while. But I mean,

1456
01:07:21,120 --> 01:07:26,040
Speaker 4: I just go remember Coleman. I think it was his

1457
01:07:26,160 --> 01:07:31,120
Speaker 4: last year with Shanahan in twenty sixteen, he had essentially

1458
01:07:31,520 --> 01:07:34,400
Speaker 4: no receiving usage, and that kind of.

1459
01:07:34,400 --> 01:07:38,560
Speaker 1: Worries me in regard to to touches.

1460
01:07:38,600 --> 01:07:40,000
Speaker 4: I think it was either that year or the year before,

1461
01:07:40,040 --> 01:07:41,360
Speaker 4: but one of the years, no, I think it was

1462
01:07:41,360 --> 01:07:41,960
Speaker 4: twenty fifteen.

1463
01:07:42,040 --> 01:07:44,200
Speaker 1: Sorry, when Devonte Freeman had the big year.

1464
01:07:44,920 --> 01:07:48,520
Speaker 4: Coleman was averaging what was zero point nine to two

1465
01:07:48,640 --> 01:07:51,960
Speaker 4: targets per game, and he had seven point three rush attempts.

1466
01:07:51,960 --> 01:07:54,440
Speaker 4: So even if he gets you know, the equivalent of

1467
01:07:54,440 --> 01:07:56,080
Speaker 4: what you would expect for him getting you know, double

1468
01:07:56,120 --> 01:07:59,640
Speaker 4: digit carries, I think his target share could be underwhelming

1469
01:07:59,640 --> 01:08:01,760
Speaker 4: because of the presence of a guy like McKinnon who

1470
01:08:01,760 --> 01:08:03,920
Speaker 4: you essentially would have no choice but to get involved

1471
01:08:04,280 --> 01:08:05,680
Speaker 4: in the passing game. If you're gonna kind of have

1472
01:08:05,720 --> 01:08:08,160
Speaker 4: this three man committee.

1473
01:08:07,680 --> 01:08:10,919
Speaker 2: Sean, you said one seventy and a half. Yeah, yeah,

1474
01:08:10,960 --> 01:08:13,600
Speaker 2: that is really close to where I have it right now.

1475
01:08:13,640 --> 01:08:17,800
Speaker 2: But there is so much uncertainty with Jeric McKinnon that

1476
01:08:17,920 --> 01:08:20,760
Speaker 2: I'm I'm gonna lean to the under Yeah.

1477
01:08:20,800 --> 01:08:23,439
Speaker 5: I mean it's mid June, so we're kind of assuming

1478
01:08:23,479 --> 01:08:24,960
Speaker 5: all these guys are going to make the team. Do

1479
01:08:25,000 --> 01:08:28,240
Speaker 5: you guys think there's a decent chance they end up

1480
01:08:28,280 --> 01:08:30,080
Speaker 5: cutting McKinnon if they're all healthy.

1481
01:08:30,240 --> 01:08:32,400
Speaker 3: Heading No, I don't think so.

1482
01:08:32,800 --> 01:08:34,040
Speaker 1: No, I mean I would.

1483
01:08:34,280 --> 01:08:36,640
Speaker 4: I think that the whole the thing it's tough is

1484
01:08:36,640 --> 01:08:38,960
Speaker 4: that even last year we kind of expected Coleman to

1485
01:08:38,960 --> 01:08:41,000
Speaker 4: really run away with the job, and Freeman got hurt

1486
01:08:41,439 --> 01:08:43,559
Speaker 4: and Coleman was a pretty volatile acid and win his

1487
01:08:43,600 --> 01:08:46,439
Speaker 4: offensive line wasn't very good. But I mean, from what

1488
01:08:46,479 --> 01:08:49,160
Speaker 4: I've heard out of Camp Coleman is they signed him

1489
01:08:49,160 --> 01:08:52,560
Speaker 4: to essentially be the quote unquote big back McKinnon.

1490
01:08:53,200 --> 01:08:54,920
Speaker 1: When then they signed him, I think they had more

1491
01:08:54,960 --> 01:08:55,280
Speaker 1: of like.

1492
01:08:55,240 --> 01:08:58,080
Speaker 4: A receiving kind of role in mind for him. But

1493
01:08:58,120 --> 01:09:00,439
Speaker 4: then I think Brita actually complicates that. I know, Sean,

1494
01:09:00,479 --> 01:09:01,759
Speaker 4: you said it, I think on one of the earlier

1495
01:09:01,760 --> 01:09:04,240
Speaker 4: pots we did this offseason that I mean, he's going

1496
01:09:04,760 --> 01:09:07,120
Speaker 4: way down there essentially free probably in that you know

1497
01:09:07,120 --> 01:09:09,679
Speaker 4: one hundred, you know, twenty one hundred and forty ADP

1498
01:09:09,880 --> 01:09:13,240
Speaker 4: range or definitely outside the top one hundred. He's probably

1499
01:09:13,280 --> 01:09:15,639
Speaker 4: the best value because I think it might just come

1500
01:09:15,680 --> 01:09:18,799
Speaker 4: down to who plays the best. And it also helped obviously,

1501
01:09:18,840 --> 01:09:22,040
Speaker 4: but just on pure talent, I mean, Brita he was,

1502
01:09:22,160 --> 01:09:23,320
Speaker 4: he was amazing last year.

1503
01:09:23,600 --> 01:09:26,479
Speaker 5: Yeah, Like when when it comes to backfield, to have

1504
01:09:26,960 --> 01:09:30,439
Speaker 5: three fantasy relevant running backs, I like to just take

1505
01:09:30,520 --> 01:09:34,320
Speaker 5: the cheapest guy. And we saw those those types of

1506
01:09:34,360 --> 01:09:37,160
Speaker 5: situations unfold last year. Philip Wendsley was an example of

1507
01:09:37,160 --> 01:09:40,880
Speaker 5: that and even Chris Carson. So those are usually where

1508
01:09:40,920 --> 01:09:43,320
Speaker 5: you actually get value where Yeah, I think Coleman, you're

1509
01:09:43,479 --> 01:09:45,760
Speaker 5: kind of essentially assuming he's going to be the man,

1510
01:09:46,080 --> 01:09:47,920
Speaker 5: which is which is where smart money is.

1511
01:09:47,960 --> 01:09:49,560
Speaker 3: But that's baked in.

1512
01:09:49,600 --> 01:09:52,719
Speaker 5: There's ADP already, So I've been targeting Brita the most

1513
01:09:52,720 --> 01:09:53,519
Speaker 5: out of the three.

1514
01:09:53,720 --> 01:09:57,320
Speaker 4: He has that, Like, I think Coleman has that latavious

1515
01:09:57,439 --> 01:10:01,200
Speaker 4: kind of upside in a sense, like this Niners offense,

1516
01:10:01,280 --> 01:10:05,280
Speaker 4: Jemmy Garoppolo another guy that could lead his team to

1517
01:10:05,520 --> 01:10:08,320
Speaker 4: having a really good offensive year. And if Coleman is

1518
01:10:08,360 --> 01:10:11,320
Speaker 4: going to be that quote unquote big back, I mean he's.

1519
01:10:11,200 --> 01:10:12,880
Speaker 1: Probably would get the goal line work.

1520
01:10:12,920 --> 01:10:15,800
Speaker 4: And San Francisco has struggled to throw the ball around

1521
01:10:15,800 --> 01:10:16,400
Speaker 4: the goal line.

1522
01:10:16,960 --> 01:10:18,960
Speaker 1: One of the guys that was brought in to kind.

1523
01:10:18,840 --> 01:10:21,360
Speaker 4: Of alleviate that maybe a little bit, Deebo Samuel has

1524
01:10:21,360 --> 01:10:23,479
Speaker 4: missed a lot of time in the offseason, and then

1525
01:10:23,479 --> 01:10:25,160
Speaker 4: you don't know what Goodwin's role is going to be.

1526
01:10:25,400 --> 01:10:27,240
Speaker 4: You know, he scores a lot of long touchdowns, but

1527
01:10:27,400 --> 01:10:29,599
Speaker 4: if those aren't necessarily there because his worklot to scale

1528
01:10:29,600 --> 01:10:31,320
Speaker 4: back because you do have some more receivers in the mix.

1529
01:10:31,400 --> 01:10:33,479
Speaker 4: I mean, Coleman could be the guy that benefits in

1530
01:10:33,520 --> 01:10:36,600
Speaker 4: terms of touchdowns, but yeah, it's hard to project be

1531
01:10:36,680 --> 01:10:38,320
Speaker 4: bullish on the touches themselves.

1532
01:10:39,280 --> 01:10:43,080
Speaker 2: Raybon, to your point about Kyle Ustik as a tight end,

1533
01:10:43,560 --> 01:10:46,040
Speaker 2: sorry not tight end a fullback, you actually sees a

1534
01:10:46,040 --> 01:10:48,600
Speaker 2: lot of usage as a receiver. Like that's just a

1535
01:10:48,640 --> 01:10:51,840
Speaker 2: staple of like the Shanahan system, Like that's something that's

1536
01:10:51,840 --> 01:10:54,040
Speaker 2: been going back like all the way to you know,

1537
01:10:54,080 --> 01:10:55,720
Speaker 2: like two thousand and eight, two thousand and nine when

1538
01:10:55,760 --> 01:10:59,040
Speaker 2: Kyle Shanahan was the offensive coordinator with the Texans, Like

1539
01:11:00,280 --> 01:11:02,400
Speaker 2: their full back is just going to get targets that

1540
01:11:02,479 --> 01:11:04,120
Speaker 2: otherwise would go to a running back.

1541
01:11:04,560 --> 01:11:07,519
Speaker 4: It just seems like Coleman is going to be such

1542
01:11:07,560 --> 01:11:10,920
Speaker 4: a frustrating own. I mean in best ball, I think

1543
01:11:11,280 --> 01:11:12,880
Speaker 4: you can make a case for it, but then it's

1544
01:11:12,920 --> 01:11:15,880
Speaker 4: like there's no it's like no ceiling baked into this.

1545
01:11:15,920 --> 01:11:18,559
Speaker 4: Almost at this he would have to essentially run away

1546
01:11:19,320 --> 01:11:21,280
Speaker 4: and put Brita completely out of the mix, and I

1547
01:11:21,320 --> 01:11:22,840
Speaker 4: don't Again, I don't think that's gonna happen.

1548
01:11:22,880 --> 01:11:26,080
Speaker 1: I think Brita was better than Coleman last year. So yeah,

1549
01:11:26,120 --> 01:11:28,120
Speaker 1: this is this is kind of a stay away backfield.

1550
01:11:28,160 --> 01:11:30,759
Speaker 4: But I agree, I think Breda is probably the best

1551
01:11:31,280 --> 01:11:34,120
Speaker 4: value in the guy I target I would want to target.

1552
01:11:34,600 --> 01:11:37,960
Speaker 5: All right, So heading over to our last team, the Seahawks,

1553
01:11:38,920 --> 01:11:42,360
Speaker 5: we have Rashad Pennies total touches this year, and I'm

1554
01:11:42,400 --> 01:11:47,040
Speaker 5: setting it over under at one seventy five and a half.

1555
01:11:47,760 --> 01:11:51,000
Speaker 2: I will take the under, but just barely. I have

1556
01:11:51,120 --> 01:11:52,800
Speaker 2: it at one seventy four point eight.

1557
01:11:54,680 --> 01:11:59,519
Speaker 4: I'm taking the under. I have it significantly more under

1558
01:11:59,560 --> 01:12:04,479
Speaker 4: than that. My concern with Penny is that, yes, he

1559
01:12:04,560 --> 01:12:06,840
Speaker 4: has the first round pedigree, but there seems to be

1560
01:12:06,880 --> 01:12:10,920
Speaker 4: a divide in terms of the front office in Pete

1561
01:12:10,960 --> 01:12:13,559
Speaker 4: Carroll and who he wants to play. The front office

1562
01:12:13,760 --> 01:12:16,839
Speaker 4: obviously is incentivized to push Penny, to leak good reports

1563
01:12:16,840 --> 01:12:19,080
Speaker 4: about Penny, for the team to get him, and for

1564
01:12:19,120 --> 01:12:21,280
Speaker 4: the team to get him. On the field, Pete Carroll

1565
01:12:21,320 --> 01:12:24,280
Speaker 4: will play the guys that he thinks are best. So yes,

1566
01:12:24,360 --> 01:12:27,919
Speaker 4: Chris Carson is injured, which I think does raise Penny's ceiling.

1567
01:12:28,439 --> 01:12:32,880
Speaker 4: But I think that the issue here is that, you know,

1568
01:12:32,960 --> 01:12:35,320
Speaker 4: they had the three man committed, or it looked like

1569
01:12:35,360 --> 01:12:37,439
Speaker 4: they were gonna have the three man committee last season

1570
01:12:37,600 --> 01:12:40,559
Speaker 4: with Davis and Penny and Carson. And first of all,

1571
01:12:40,600 --> 01:12:42,519
Speaker 4: Davis just worked his way into the mix, like out

1572
01:12:42,520 --> 01:12:44,559
Speaker 4: of I mean he was he was playing well at

1573
01:12:44,600 --> 01:12:47,080
Speaker 4: the end of the prior year, but he kind of

1574
01:12:47,240 --> 01:12:49,519
Speaker 4: just essentially took the role that we thought Penny was

1575
01:12:49,520 --> 01:12:50,840
Speaker 4: going to have, and even ate in the year after

1576
01:12:50,880 --> 01:12:52,800
Speaker 4: Penny had flashed and kind of looked like he had

1577
01:12:52,840 --> 01:12:55,160
Speaker 4: matured and improved a little bit. You know, when it

1578
01:12:55,200 --> 01:12:58,920
Speaker 4: came times for go time in the postseason, Penny wasn't playing.

1579
01:12:59,360 --> 01:13:03,519
Speaker 4: So I worry a little bit that car Carol still

1580
01:13:03,680 --> 01:13:08,360
Speaker 4: overwhelmingly favores Carson. And then there's been all this talk about, well,

1581
01:13:08,439 --> 01:13:12,320
Speaker 4: there's a third down back competition and it's between CJ

1582
01:13:12,400 --> 01:13:16,759
Speaker 4: prosize JD. Mackissick and the rookie weight round pick Travis Homer,

1583
01:13:17,280 --> 01:13:19,960
Speaker 4: and there's no talk of Penny in that role, which

1584
01:13:20,000 --> 01:13:24,639
Speaker 4: is interesting because Mike Davis, you know, thirty four balls

1585
01:13:24,720 --> 01:13:27,639
Speaker 4: last season out of Mike Davis's one hundred and forty

1586
01:13:27,720 --> 01:13:30,960
Speaker 4: six touches last year, nineteen percent of them came on

1587
01:13:31,040 --> 01:13:34,880
Speaker 4: third down. Guess how many of Penny's ninety four touches

1588
01:13:34,920 --> 01:13:35,599
Speaker 4: came on third down?

1589
01:13:35,960 --> 01:13:36,200
Speaker 2: One?

1590
01:13:36,880 --> 01:13:38,200
Speaker 1: One? One.

1591
01:13:38,680 --> 01:13:41,800
Speaker 4: That is concerning, Like it is concerning that. It's like,

1592
01:13:41,840 --> 01:13:44,120
Speaker 4: if you think that these are your top two backs,

1593
01:13:45,040 --> 01:13:47,760
Speaker 4: we know they probably favorite Carson as an early down guy.

1594
01:13:47,800 --> 01:13:49,439
Speaker 1: He profiles as that guy the way he.

1595
01:13:49,479 --> 01:13:52,320
Speaker 4: Runs, not quite as good in the passing game, Like

1596
01:13:52,439 --> 01:13:55,640
Speaker 4: why wouldn't Penny be the third down But this is

1597
01:13:55,720 --> 01:13:59,280
Speaker 4: just concerning to me, and I fear that, Yes, I

1598
01:13:59,280 --> 01:14:04,120
Speaker 4: think Penny would the Davis touch carries as a spelling

1599
01:14:04,240 --> 01:14:07,639
Speaker 4: of Carson, but I don't know if the overall usage

1600
01:14:07,680 --> 01:14:10,320
Speaker 4: is going to be there for him to kind of

1601
01:14:10,320 --> 01:14:13,200
Speaker 4: have a big season in the West. Carson continues to

1602
01:14:13,200 --> 01:14:16,000
Speaker 4: struggle with injury, which he had, so it's still a possibility.

1603
01:14:16,360 --> 01:14:19,479
Speaker 2: And one thing that factors into this is Seattle was

1604
01:14:19,880 --> 01:14:23,640
Speaker 2: very run heavy last year in the Brian Schottenheimer scheme, and.

1605
01:14:23,720 --> 01:14:26,880
Speaker 4: Great, great job by Shottenheimer, great, just great, great coordinator.

1606
01:14:27,240 --> 01:14:29,880
Speaker 2: And even if you are assuming that was ridiculous, rightmon,

1607
01:14:30,000 --> 01:14:32,280
Speaker 2: even if you are assuming that they're going to stay

1608
01:14:32,400 --> 01:14:35,000
Speaker 2: run heavy, I still think you have to project them

1609
01:14:35,240 --> 01:14:40,120
Speaker 2: for fewer than like fifty three percent of the like

1610
01:14:40,280 --> 01:14:43,439
Speaker 2: run ass split that they had last year. So I

1611
01:14:43,439 --> 01:14:46,040
Speaker 2: think that could end up factoring into this just in

1612
01:14:46,120 --> 01:14:49,040
Speaker 2: terms of like, even if Penny gets an enhanced share

1613
01:14:49,080 --> 01:14:51,559
Speaker 2: of the pie, which he should, that pie will be

1614
01:14:51,600 --> 01:14:52,920
Speaker 2: a little bit smaller this year.

1615
01:14:53,200 --> 01:14:55,800
Speaker 4: Yeah, and I still have Penny ranked, you know, right

1616
01:14:55,840 --> 01:14:59,280
Speaker 4: outside the top thirty. So but that is more so

1617
01:14:59,640 --> 01:15:03,720
Speaker 4: because oh, Seattle is essentially probably a top two three

1618
01:15:03,800 --> 01:15:08,360
Speaker 4: run heavy team in the league. But yeah, it's still

1619
01:15:08,520 --> 01:15:13,679
Speaker 4: I don't think that Penny necessarily jumps Carson for any

1620
01:15:13,680 --> 01:15:15,360
Speaker 4: other reason but injury.

1621
01:15:15,120 --> 01:15:18,559
Speaker 5: Right right, Yeah, And I think that's a good point.

1622
01:15:18,560 --> 01:15:20,519
Speaker 5: And when it when it comes to the starting running back,

1623
01:15:20,600 --> 01:15:22,760
Speaker 5: I'm a little bit hesitant to set their over runner

1624
01:15:22,800 --> 01:15:26,599
Speaker 5: a little too high. But any back or situation where

1625
01:15:26,600 --> 01:15:30,080
Speaker 5: they can benefit from injury or just general upside, I

1626
01:15:30,200 --> 01:15:32,519
Speaker 5: tend to think that that, you know, it goes the

1627
01:15:32,560 --> 01:15:34,759
Speaker 5: other way where I didn't want to set it too low.

1628
01:15:35,560 --> 01:15:38,160
Speaker 4: Yeah, he has he's getting twenty he could get twenty five,

1629
01:15:38,280 --> 01:15:40,320
Speaker 4: twenty to twenty five touches a.

1630
01:15:40,320 --> 01:15:43,200
Speaker 1: Game, if any game that Carson's out. We've seen that

1631
01:15:43,240 --> 01:15:43,879
Speaker 1: with Davis.

1632
01:15:44,160 --> 01:15:46,840
Speaker 5: Yeah, exactly, and the and the one and forty one

1633
01:15:47,120 --> 01:15:49,160
Speaker 5: and fifty touches from Davis are up for grabs, so

1634
01:15:49,200 --> 01:15:52,840
Speaker 5: there's just there's more volatility there. So in situations situations

1635
01:15:52,840 --> 01:15:54,599
Speaker 5: like that, I tend to kind of skew a player

1636
01:15:54,680 --> 01:15:57,840
Speaker 5: like him a little bit higher. But I don't feel

1637
01:15:57,840 --> 01:16:00,600
Speaker 5: good about having the over from both the like I

1638
01:16:00,600 --> 01:16:02,360
Speaker 5: don't like that you guys both hammered the unders. What

1639
01:16:02,360 --> 01:16:03,800
Speaker 5: I'm trying to say, Yeah, I.

1640
01:16:03,720 --> 01:16:06,240
Speaker 4: Mean I think I'm like fourteen every under like Kyler

1641
01:16:06,320 --> 01:16:07,040
Speaker 4: Murray and and.

1642
01:16:07,040 --> 01:16:09,080
Speaker 1: Chris Godwin, which is fair. I mean I feel a

1643
01:16:09,080 --> 01:16:09,559
Speaker 1: bit about that.

1644
01:16:09,600 --> 01:16:13,919
Speaker 4: I think those those two players are are prime to exploding.

1645
01:16:14,320 --> 01:16:17,400
Speaker 2: Sean, do you have a final tally on my overs

1646
01:16:17,400 --> 01:16:18,040
Speaker 2: and unders?

1647
01:16:18,640 --> 01:16:21,080
Speaker 5: Now, I'll do that after I kind of just sporadically

1648
01:16:21,160 --> 01:16:22,719
Speaker 5: wrote it in this word document.

1649
01:16:22,800 --> 01:16:26,919
Speaker 2: So I think I think I probably lean to the overs,

1650
01:16:27,000 --> 01:16:30,280
Speaker 2: which is maybe slightly problematic, but I think I have

1651
01:16:30,920 --> 01:16:32,719
Speaker 2: enough balance to where I'm not going to be overly

1652
01:16:32,760 --> 01:16:38,479
Speaker 2: concerned on this. Sean awesome job creating all of these us. Yes,

1653
01:16:39,000 --> 01:16:43,759
Speaker 2: that is the NFC player Projection preview. Again. Our projections

1654
01:16:43,760 --> 01:16:46,880
Speaker 2: are going to power our customizable fantasy football cheat sheet,

1655
01:16:46,920 --> 01:16:49,479
Speaker 2: which is out July. First, we will preview our AFC

1656
01:16:49,520 --> 01:16:52,680
Speaker 2: player projections on next week's show, So then that is

1657
01:16:52,720 --> 01:16:54,479
Speaker 2: going to do it for this episode of the Action

1658
01:16:54,640 --> 01:16:57,959
Speaker 2: Network NFL podcast. Please rate, interview, the show, and iTunes

1659
01:16:57,960 --> 01:17:00,519
Speaker 2: For Sean and Chris, I'm Matthew Friedman, Matti the Oracle.

1660
01:17:00,680 --> 01:17:05,520
Speaker 2: See you again next episode.