WEBVTT - Andy Levy & Jacob Rubashkin

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<v Speaker 1>Hi, I'm Molly John Fast and this is Fast Politics,

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<v Speaker 1>where we discussed the top political headlines with some of

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<v Speaker 1>today's best minds. And a majority of Americans have a

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<v Speaker 1>negative view of billionaires spending more money to buy elections,

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<v Speaker 1>according to a Washington Post IPSOS poll. We have such

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<v Speaker 1>a great show for you today. Author of Evil Geniuses

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<v Speaker 1>Kurt Anderson stops by to talk about Trump, saying the

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<v Speaker 1>Democrats should be hung. Then we'll talk to Aten ben

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<v Speaker 1>about her run for Congress in a swing district in Tennessee.

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<v Speaker 1>But first, the news and disapproval of Donald Trump is

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<v Speaker 1>now higher than in his first term. At the same time,

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<v Speaker 1>we have such a great show for you today as

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<v Speaker 1>the world churns Andy Levy stops by to talk about

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<v Speaker 1>the fight inside Democratic leadership. Then we'll talk to Inside

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<v Speaker 1>Elections Jacob Rubashkin about the Democratic chances of flipping the

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<v Speaker 1>House and perhaps even the Senate. But first, the stories

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<v Speaker 1>the media is not covering enough.

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<v Speaker 2>So Lally, you're going to be shocked to hear this,

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<v Speaker 2>But Lindsay Halligan totally really, really really messed up. I

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<v Speaker 2>wanted to say something much more bad, but I know

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<v Speaker 2>I caught myself and didn't say the same, and body

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<v Speaker 2>vows to take this up to the top of the

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<v Speaker 2>courts to get mister Kobe from mister Trump.

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<v Speaker 3>But I don't know. This doesn't look good for them.

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<v Speaker 1>Despite being a pageant Queen Lindsay Halligan Lindsay Michelle Halligan

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<v Speaker 1>born in nineteen eighty nine in Portland, Maine. She is

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<v Speaker 1>the interim US Attorney for the Eastern District of Virginia.

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<v Speaker 1>And here's the problem. Here is the problem is that

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<v Speaker 1>she has no experience doing anything pretty much at all

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<v Speaker 1>besides pageants and industrial law commercial properties. And then eventually

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<v Speaker 1>she was an insurance lawyer and also pageant Queen Donald

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<v Speaker 1>Trump's lawyer, and it turns out putting her as the

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<v Speaker 1>US Attorney for the Eastern District of Virginia, she should

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<v Speaker 1>have maybe had a few jobs between insurance law.

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<v Speaker 4>And that, and she didn't. And now you know who's

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<v Speaker 4>benefiting from.

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<v Speaker 3>That, mister James Kobe, who is not by.

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<v Speaker 1>Hobie, mister James Comy, who is too dall and a

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<v Speaker 1>terrible writer. But in this case, we want him to

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<v Speaker 1>not go to jail for a trumped up crime. And

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<v Speaker 1>so we will in fact say that this is actually good.

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<v Speaker 1>Both cases, the Comy case the James case both dismissed

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<v Speaker 1>because Judge Cameron Curry said the loyalist prosecutor and still

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<v Speaker 1>by mister Trump to bring the cases was in her

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<v Speaker 1>position unlawfully. And so it turns out you can be

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<v Speaker 1>hot and still be very, very bad at your job.

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<v Speaker 1>There you have it, ladies and gentlemen. Abby Law, the

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<v Speaker 1>lawyer for missus James James, since there are only five

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<v Speaker 1>people in the world, also was the lawyer for Hunter

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<v Speaker 1>Biden Avilall said mister Trump went to extreme measures to

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<v Speaker 1>substitute one of his allies to bring these base those

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<v Speaker 1>charges after career prosecutors refused. This case was not about

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<v Speaker 1>the justice owned law. It was about targeting Attorney James

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<v Speaker 1>for what she stood for and who she challenged.

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<v Speaker 4>Bill Baldy Yet again.

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<v Speaker 3>That guy is battle average a good well.

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<v Speaker 1>The fact that he is able to find mortgages at

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<v Speaker 1>every point that Trump can then use to go against

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<v Speaker 1>his enemies.

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<v Speaker 4>And by the way, at every point this doesn't work.

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<v Speaker 1>So Bill Poulti is being I don't know if they've

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<v Speaker 1>quite opened a formal investigation, but expect to hear the

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<v Speaker 1>name Bill Paultie again and again and again so.

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<v Speaker 2>By Yesterday on Twitter Republican Propaganda News, I'm sorry, punch

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<v Speaker 2>bowl News, Jake Sherman sent out a tweet saying that

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<v Speaker 2>there are many Republicans were looking to exit just like

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<v Speaker 2>Barjorie Taylor Greed, and that they're fed up with big

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<v Speaker 2>props for mister Trump. Politico has a giant explator of

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<v Speaker 2>what's going on today? Where do you see him?

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<v Speaker 1>Okay, first of all, don't be me into Jake Sherman.

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<v Speaker 1>He is got it.

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<v Speaker 4>I'm serious.

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<v Speaker 1>Covering Congress is a thankless job, and they do some

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<v Speaker 1>really good reporting, and then I.

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<v Speaker 3>Won't be saiding committee.

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<v Speaker 5>Thank you.

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<v Speaker 1>You can send him an edible arrangement. Mike Johnson, let's

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<v Speaker 1>talk about this because it's interesting. House Republicans are really

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<v Speaker 1>mad at Mike Johnson. Here's why they're mad at him,

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<v Speaker 1>because he took advantage of what they let him do. Okay,

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<v Speaker 1>Like this is an incredible bit of House Republicans, Like

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<v Speaker 1>why did you let me hit me? You know, like

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<v Speaker 1>just so bad? Okay, So Donald Trump's Republican Party goes

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<v Speaker 1>in there when Donald Trump gets sworn in. We said

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<v Speaker 1>this was coming, We told them it was coming, right,

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<v Speaker 1>got Russ Vought, and the crew is like, you're not

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<v Speaker 1>gonna have the power of the person anymore. Sorry, Congress,

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<v Speaker 1>that's ours. Now. Congress rolls the fuck over with everything.

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<v Speaker 1>They roll over on cabinet appointments, they roll over on spending.

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<v Speaker 1>They let the Trump administration do this five billion dollar

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<v Speaker 1>pocket recision which takes back all the foreign aid money.

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<v Speaker 1>At every point, they just roll over. Now Republicans are mad.

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<v Speaker 1>They don't like the job anymore because they have no power.

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<v Speaker 1>They took this job for power. They give all their

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<v Speaker 1>power to Trump, and now they're mad they have no power.

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<v Speaker 4>Okay, I mean you didn't have to give.

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<v Speaker 1>Trump all your power, So good news for Democrats. Mike

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<v Speaker 1>Johnson is not good at his job. If you had

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<v Speaker 1>a Tom Emmer in there, you had someone who had

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<v Speaker 1>been doing the job for a while, they might be

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<v Speaker 1>able to stop these discharge petitions. They might be able

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<v Speaker 1>to whip votes. But luckily you don't. You have Mike

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<v Speaker 1>Johnson in there. So Mike Johnson has Now there's another

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<v Speaker 1>diste arch petition. These discharge petitions are ways to get

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<v Speaker 1>around leadership, to find a piece of legislation, and to

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<v Speaker 1>get around leadership by getting the two hundred and eighteen

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<v Speaker 1>signatures you need to force a vote on legislation. This

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<v Speaker 1>is something that does not usually happen because usually you

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<v Speaker 1>have a Speaker of the House who has some control

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<v Speaker 1>over their caucus. But Mike Johnson has no control over

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<v Speaker 1>his caucus. And so we have a discharge petition palooza.

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<v Speaker 4>And Republicans did this to themselves. You guys.

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<v Speaker 1>By the way, Nashville, Tennessee, you have this special election,

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<v Speaker 1>so and there are more special elections or two more

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<v Speaker 1>special elections coming up, so one in Texas. Mike Johnson's

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<v Speaker 1>his majority is getting thinner. So we'll see what happens.

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<v Speaker 1>But it's nice to see these Republicans reap what they sew.

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<v Speaker 2>So byie, mister Trump seek the writing on the wall

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<v Speaker 2>of the affordability crisis. That might be because he just

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<v Speaker 2>had his crush at the office or on Bob Dottie

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<v Speaker 2>who talks about it extensively. Anyway, he's announce saying an

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<v Speaker 2>extension of ACA tex credits for two years.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, so this is Trump has decided he's going to

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<v Speaker 1>solve healthcare. You'll remember that in Trump one point zero,

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<v Speaker 1>which is the world we live in forever and ever,

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<v Speaker 1>until we die. Trump said, he who knew healthcare could

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<v Speaker 1>be so complicated?

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<v Speaker 3>You remember that I do it, did lives rent free

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<v Speaker 3>by Edge.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, well, it turns out is very complicated, and so

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<v Speaker 1>in typical Donald Trump fashion, he's decided that he's just

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<v Speaker 1>going to quick fix it. So he said on Monday

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<v Speaker 1>he was going to announce a new like a Trump Care.

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<v Speaker 1>It was the Monday before Thanksgiving, not a time that

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<v Speaker 1>Congressional anyone want.

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<v Speaker 4>To do anything.

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<v Speaker 1>They want to go home for Thanksgiving because they're extremely

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<v Speaker 1>hard working. Politicians basically ended the shutdown because they were

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<v Speaker 1>worried about traveling home for the holidays. Okay, they ended

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<v Speaker 1>the government shutdown because they were worried about holiday travel.

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<v Speaker 1>This is a crew that takes holidays very serious. Anyways.

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<v Speaker 1>So Donald Trump wanted to extend the ACA tax credits

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<v Speaker 1>for two years. This is what Democrats wanted from the

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<v Speaker 1>government shutdown. I am interested to see if this happens.

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<v Speaker 1>If it happens, it's billions of dollars. It will increase

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<v Speaker 1>the deficit. But you know, none of these Republicans particularly

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<v Speaker 1>care about that. If it happens, it will be so

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<v Speaker 1>interesting because it runs contrary to basically all of the

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<v Speaker 1>Republican goals. So we'll see what happens. But I could

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<v Speaker 1>see how Trump would want it, because they're going to

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<v Speaker 1>get killed on these premiums. They're going up, up, up, abup.

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<v Speaker 1>You have voters who are very mad by inflation, and

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<v Speaker 1>now they're going to be even madter.

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<v Speaker 4>So let's see what happens.

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<v Speaker 2>Yes, so famously, Senator Jib Justice, very new to the Senate,

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<v Speaker 2>former governor of West Virginia. He is not so into

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<v Speaker 2>paying taxes. And we now see that his legal woes

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<v Speaker 2>or even bigger because his wife's been sued for five

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<v Speaker 2>million dollars in unpaid taxes from two thousand and nine.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, so this is interesting. Jim Justice, my man, he

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<v Speaker 1>flies back and forth to Congress on a private jet

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<v Speaker 1>every week. So okay, that is insane. You can get

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<v Speaker 1>an apartment at private jet, okay, to work. He does

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<v Speaker 1>not have an apartment in DC. He takes a private

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<v Speaker 1>jet there and back. Even for a rich person, that

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<v Speaker 1>is wild. But he has a little bit of a

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<v Speaker 1>tax problem. So the US government on Monday. Now, by

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<v Speaker 1>the way, this is the Trump government. Okay, so think

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<v Speaker 1>about just what had to happen here for the Trump

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<v Speaker 1>government's irs to decide that they were going to sue

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<v Speaker 1>a Republican senator from West Virginia. We're more than five

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<v Speaker 1>million dollars in unpaid federal income taxes, penalties, and interest

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<v Speaker 1>dating to the two thousand and nine tex following you.

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<v Speaker 1>I think this is wild, and Jim Justice is supposed

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<v Speaker 1>to have billions of dollars. We'll see where this lands,

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<v Speaker 1>but this strikes me as wild.

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<v Speaker 4>Andy Levy is the host.

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<v Speaker 1>Of As the World churns Andy Levy.

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<v Speaker 5>Hello, Molly john Fest.

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<v Speaker 4>You know what the first rule of fight club is?

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<v Speaker 5>I do what is it?

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<v Speaker 1>Well?

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<v Speaker 5>You know, even the fact that we are violating.

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<v Speaker 1>It now.

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<v Speaker 6>He's not great.

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<v Speaker 5>But obviously the first and second rules of fight club

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<v Speaker 5>are that you do not talk about fight club. So

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<v Speaker 5>let's talk about that.

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<v Speaker 4>Let's start fight club. Yeah, Tux Humor.

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<v Speaker 1>And a woman you may know, Kristian Jili Brian. They're

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<v Speaker 1>catching a little heat for their wildly unpopular senate picks,

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<v Speaker 1>putting their hands on the scale for Haley Stevens. Gifted

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<v Speaker 1>Orator Haley Stevens and the always young and refreshed seventy

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<v Speaker 1>seven year old Janet Mills discuss.

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<v Speaker 5>Yeah, you're referring, of course, to this group of is

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<v Speaker 5>it six Democratic fake senators? Yeah, we're calling themselves the

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<v Speaker 5>fight club, and yeah, they're not happy with Schumer and

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<v Speaker 5>Joe Brand and look good for them, and they want

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<v Speaker 5>to win. They want to win. And this is way overdue,

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<v Speaker 5>but better late than never, and it would be nice if, yeah,

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<v Speaker 5>if we could get different leadership. Molly, do we have

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<v Speaker 5>to have this leadership? Is there? Is it a rule somewhere?

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<v Speaker 5>Is it another rule of fight club that we have

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<v Speaker 5>to not fight?

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<v Speaker 1>So here's what I would say, Chuck Schumer does not

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<v Speaker 1>need to be the leader of the Senate Democrats. In fact,

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<v Speaker 1>Chuck Schumer is a choice. And I think that you know,

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<v Speaker 1>Chris Murphy is available, Brian Schott is available. Even you

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<v Speaker 1>know Tina Smith or your favorite from Minnesota, Clomentum. God,

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<v Speaker 1>even those people are all available to be in leadership.

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<v Speaker 4>And by the way, this is a job everyone wants.

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<v Speaker 5>I understand why Schumer got the position. He you know,

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<v Speaker 5>he's been working his whole life for it.

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<v Speaker 7>And it was one of those things where you know,

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<v Speaker 7>the Democrats are very big sometimes on sort of I

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<v Speaker 7>don't know if coronation is the right word, but it's

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<v Speaker 7>sort of you know, next in line, like you know, oh.

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<v Speaker 5>Your suppers coronation is I think you it doesn't work.

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<v Speaker 5>And all those people you named, with the possible exception

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<v Speaker 5>of my not so favorite senator from Minnesota, would be

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<v Speaker 5>much better than Chuck Schuman. None of them. It's going

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<v Speaker 5>to be an imperfect person. We know that. And so

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<v Speaker 5>the idea to me is get someone who's at least

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<v Speaker 5>less imperfect than Chuck Schumer. And I know that sounds

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<v Speaker 5>like damning with fate praise, but that's the way politics works.

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<v Speaker 1>The problem with Schumer is not that he's not perfect.

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<v Speaker 1>The problem with Schumer is that he's not a fighter.

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<v Speaker 1>And this is again goes back to this adage from

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<v Speaker 1>Pritzker's chief of staff. It's not left versus senator, it's

0:13:23.720 --> 0:13:27.520
<v Speaker 1>fight versus cave. And with the fight club the six senators,

0:13:27.520 --> 0:13:30.240
<v Speaker 1>what you see is they're not ideologically all the same.

0:13:30.559 --> 0:13:35.319
<v Speaker 1>Maryland Senator Chris van Holland and Connecticut Senator Chris Murphy

0:13:35.840 --> 0:13:38.880
<v Speaker 1>are not the same as Bernie Sanders of course, and

0:13:39.000 --> 0:13:41.520
<v Speaker 1>Elizabeth Warren, but they are the same in the fact

0:13:41.559 --> 0:13:46.319
<v Speaker 1>that they want to fight. Whereas the Gillibrands and the

0:13:46.360 --> 0:13:51.760
<v Speaker 1>Schumers want to raise money and pick bad candidates.

0:13:52.120 --> 0:13:55.800
<v Speaker 5>It's twentieth century politics versus twenty first century politics. And

0:13:56.760 --> 0:13:59.839
<v Speaker 5>that's not even necessarily an age thing because you look

0:13:59.840 --> 0:14:02.960
<v Speaker 5>at the people in that fight club. You've got Bernice Anders,

0:14:02.960 --> 0:14:06.040
<v Speaker 5>You've got Liz Warren. You know, it's not like these

0:14:06.040 --> 0:14:09.720
<v Speaker 5>are people in their forties or fifties or whatever. They

0:14:09.720 --> 0:14:15.560
<v Speaker 5>are elder statespeople. But they at least recognize that it's

0:14:15.600 --> 0:14:19.040
<v Speaker 5>not nineteen ninety six. This is not George H. W.

0:14:19.160 --> 0:14:23.680
<v Speaker 5>Bush's Republican Party. I mean, let alone Mitt Romney's Republican Party.

0:14:23.840 --> 0:14:27.200
<v Speaker 5>But they recognize that it's Donald Trump's Republican Party. And

0:14:27.240 --> 0:14:30.680
<v Speaker 5>you can't sit there and do twentieth century politics in

0:14:31.080 --> 0:14:34.920
<v Speaker 5>this environment. And Chuck Schumer does not and apparently never

0:14:35.080 --> 0:14:38.560
<v Speaker 5>will understand that. I don't think Jilli brand does either.

0:14:38.760 --> 0:14:41.400
<v Speaker 5>And look, Joe Biden was and should have been the

0:14:41.520 --> 0:14:44.680
<v Speaker 5>last gasp of twentieth century politics for the Democrats. That

0:14:44.840 --> 0:14:48.000
<v Speaker 5>caused a lot of problems his not being comfortable going

0:14:48.080 --> 0:14:51.120
<v Speaker 5>after the jan six people. You know, So I'll let

0:14:51.120 --> 0:14:55.400
<v Speaker 5>that be in the past. Let's move forward. That the Mark.

0:14:55.120 --> 0:14:57.240
<v Speaker 4>Garland school of not doing anything.

0:14:56.960 --> 0:15:00.880
<v Speaker 5>Exactly exactly, and that's the same school that Schumer and

0:15:01.000 --> 0:15:03.560
<v Speaker 5>Julibrand are part of. And it just it has to

0:15:03.680 --> 0:15:05.880
<v Speaker 5>it has to go. It has to die. That school

0:15:05.920 --> 0:15:07.240
<v Speaker 5>of politics has to die.

0:15:07.480 --> 0:15:10.600
<v Speaker 1>I think that what you're going to see is and

0:15:10.640 --> 0:15:12.160
<v Speaker 1>this is not from the pundit class.

0:15:12.200 --> 0:15:13.040
<v Speaker 4>This is from the base.

0:15:13.800 --> 0:15:18.440
<v Speaker 1>The base is mad about Biden, the pundit class. And

0:15:18.840 --> 0:15:22.120
<v Speaker 1>I was as skilty of this as anyone said, go

0:15:22.200 --> 0:15:25.880
<v Speaker 1>along with Biden. He'll be good. Voters will like him.

0:15:26.120 --> 0:15:29.000
<v Speaker 1>He's not too old. He's going to just do one term.

0:15:29.160 --> 0:15:31.800
<v Speaker 1>He got in there, he was not going to do

0:15:31.840 --> 0:15:35.840
<v Speaker 1>one term. Everything was exactly the worst case scenario, right,

0:15:35.920 --> 0:15:38.600
<v Speaker 1>he was too old, he did this, he stayed in

0:15:38.640 --> 0:15:41.680
<v Speaker 1>too long. They couldn't have a primary process at every point.

0:15:41.720 --> 0:15:45.000
<v Speaker 1>It was just a disaster. And so you do not

0:15:45.200 --> 0:15:49.840
<v Speaker 1>have the base's full faith and credit now like in

0:15:49.920 --> 0:15:53.960
<v Speaker 1>twenty sixteen, Chuck Schumer could tweet Orange Man bad and

0:15:54.160 --> 0:15:57.760
<v Speaker 1>raise ten million dollars. No no, no, no no. And we

0:15:57.880 --> 0:16:00.400
<v Speaker 1>see this when we look at the DNC number, like

0:16:00.400 --> 0:16:03.480
<v Speaker 1>they're taking out loans to pay for the DNC. Like

0:16:04.040 --> 0:16:10.160
<v Speaker 1>voters are not happy. And even if they want Democrats

0:16:10.200 --> 0:16:12.480
<v Speaker 1>to win more than they want Republicans to win, you

0:16:12.600 --> 0:16:13.960
<v Speaker 1>don't have a blank check.

0:16:14.240 --> 0:16:16.760
<v Speaker 5>No, but look, I think if they send me one

0:16:16.800 --> 0:16:23.960
<v Speaker 5>more text that'll do it. You know, I just it's

0:16:24.040 --> 0:16:27.720
<v Speaker 5>it's unreal. But you're absolutely right. Look the base and

0:16:27.840 --> 0:16:31.200
<v Speaker 5>forget about the pundit class, forget about you know, well

0:16:31.760 --> 0:16:35.120
<v Speaker 5>except for me, because I really am. I'm much more

0:16:35.320 --> 0:16:37.200
<v Speaker 5>of a man of the people, a man of the

0:16:37.240 --> 0:16:38.200
<v Speaker 5>base than I am.

0:16:38.320 --> 0:16:40.960
<v Speaker 1>You were in the army, certainly more than many a

0:16:41.320 --> 0:16:43.240
<v Speaker 1>NASCAR come on, yeah, but you're.

0:16:43.120 --> 0:16:45.880
<v Speaker 5>Absolutely right when it comes to the base. And that

0:16:45.920 --> 0:16:48.760
<v Speaker 5>gets back to what you were saying before from Pritzker's

0:16:48.800 --> 0:16:53.200
<v Speaker 5>people about it's fighting versus not fighting, and everybody wants

0:16:53.200 --> 0:16:56.080
<v Speaker 5>fighting now. And the thing is, Chuck Schumer will now

0:16:56.160 --> 0:16:59.520
<v Speaker 5>get on Twitter, I suppose, and definitely on Blue Sky

0:16:59.560 --> 0:17:02.560
<v Speaker 5>where I see it, and he'll post things that maybe

0:17:02.600 --> 0:17:06.040
<v Speaker 5>ten years ago would have been effective or you would

0:17:06.040 --> 0:17:08.680
<v Speaker 5>have said, all right, good for you, Chuck. Now what

0:17:08.720 --> 0:17:11.960
<v Speaker 5>they look like, because it's what they are, is a

0:17:12.080 --> 0:17:17.040
<v Speaker 5>guy who is trying desperately to catch up and to

0:17:17.280 --> 0:17:20.840
<v Speaker 5>be someone he's absolutely not, and so it just comes

0:17:20.880 --> 0:17:24.120
<v Speaker 5>across as completely performative when he sits there and goes,

0:17:24.359 --> 0:17:26.920
<v Speaker 5>we will fight this, and we you know, we have

0:17:26.960 --> 0:17:29.000
<v Speaker 5>to do this. It was like, you've been in power

0:17:29.040 --> 0:17:31.639
<v Speaker 5>for a long time and you haven't done any of this,

0:17:31.960 --> 0:17:33.560
<v Speaker 5>and so you get a lot You look at it

0:17:33.600 --> 0:17:35.879
<v Speaker 5>and you see people applying saying, why are you telling

0:17:35.960 --> 0:17:38.840
<v Speaker 5>us this, Why aren't you doing this? Because that's who

0:17:38.920 --> 0:17:41.840
<v Speaker 5>Chuck Schumer is, so it all rings false when he

0:17:41.920 --> 0:17:46.040
<v Speaker 5>tries to do it now and again it's, you know,

0:17:46.760 --> 0:17:51.000
<v Speaker 5>twentieth century versus twenty first. The twentieth century politicians have

0:17:51.160 --> 0:17:55.280
<v Speaker 5>got to, if not completely go they've got to step back.

0:17:55.640 --> 0:17:58.800
<v Speaker 5>They've got to step back. We saw this when AOC

0:17:59.680 --> 0:18:03.000
<v Speaker 5>wanted to be the I forget which committee it is now,

0:18:03.560 --> 0:18:07.800
<v Speaker 5>and we went with the guy that oversight, guy that

0:18:08.760 --> 0:18:12.800
<v Speaker 5>nally he died, who died in office, who you know,

0:18:13.040 --> 0:18:14.760
<v Speaker 5>had cancer, and the.

0:18:14.720 --> 0:18:17.320
<v Speaker 4>Democrats sex he was seventy six. It wasn't like he

0:18:17.440 --> 0:18:18.280
<v Speaker 4>was a young guy.

0:18:18.480 --> 0:18:21.359
<v Speaker 5>Right, and the Democratic leadership said, no, we need to

0:18:21.359 --> 0:18:25.280
<v Speaker 5>give this position to him. It was not term exactly,

0:18:25.520 --> 0:18:28.440
<v Speaker 5>and that shit has got to go away. And it's

0:18:28.520 --> 0:18:30.560
<v Speaker 5>one of the biggest things I think holding back the

0:18:30.560 --> 0:18:33.679
<v Speaker 5>Democratic Party right now is this sort of refusal to

0:18:33.960 --> 0:18:38.359
<v Speaker 5>let the next generation, or at least the people you know, again,

0:18:38.560 --> 0:18:41.640
<v Speaker 5>Liz Warren is not young. Bernie Sanders certainly isn't young.

0:18:42.040 --> 0:18:44.439
<v Speaker 5>But they know what's going on and they always have

0:18:44.560 --> 0:18:46.800
<v Speaker 5>because they've been those kinds of politicians in their whole

0:18:46.880 --> 0:18:49.320
<v Speaker 5>lives where they do fight. You've got to start turning

0:18:49.359 --> 0:18:52.080
<v Speaker 5>it over to the people who recognize the world in

0:18:52.119 --> 0:18:54.000
<v Speaker 5>which we live in twenty twenty five.

0:18:54.280 --> 0:18:58.120
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, now I want to talk about where we are

0:18:58.280 --> 0:19:02.080
<v Speaker 1>right now because Donald Trump he's going to bring peace

0:19:02.240 --> 0:19:05.800
<v Speaker 1>to Russia Ukraine. Like, I feel like he's doing everything

0:19:05.880 --> 0:19:09.000
<v Speaker 1>he can to distract from the Epstein files, right Like

0:19:09.080 --> 0:19:12.000
<v Speaker 1>he's like hoping that if he just keeps going on

0:19:12.040 --> 0:19:14.879
<v Speaker 1>with the news sources like that, how that the that

0:19:15.040 --> 0:19:18.879
<v Speaker 1>Pam BONDI will never release any of the Epstein stuff,

0:19:18.960 --> 0:19:21.080
<v Speaker 1>even though he had to file, he had to sign

0:19:21.160 --> 0:19:24.320
<v Speaker 1>that discharge petition which says in his law that they're

0:19:24.320 --> 0:19:25.960
<v Speaker 1>going to release it within thirty days.

0:19:26.200 --> 0:19:29.359
<v Speaker 5>Yeah, but Molly, remember he instructed everyone to vote for

0:19:29.400 --> 0:19:30.639
<v Speaker 5>that because he really wants it.

0:19:31.200 --> 0:19:32.119
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, he did.

0:19:32.720 --> 0:19:35.080
<v Speaker 1>He changed the very last minute when he saw he

0:19:35.119 --> 0:19:37.040
<v Speaker 1>was going to lose. He was like, I think we

0:19:37.160 --> 0:19:39.120
<v Speaker 1>want those, you want those?

0:19:39.480 --> 0:19:42.399
<v Speaker 5>Yeah, And look at least he's not, you know, maybe

0:19:42.440 --> 0:19:45.480
<v Speaker 5>starting a war in it with the South American country

0:19:45.600 --> 0:19:47.399
<v Speaker 5>to distract from everything else.

0:19:47.600 --> 0:19:51.720
<v Speaker 1>But look where your favorite of the way the ways

0:19:51.760 --> 0:19:53.800
<v Speaker 1>in which Donald Trump is trying to distract is your

0:19:53.880 --> 0:19:57.359
<v Speaker 1>favorite that he's starting a war, or is your favorite

0:19:57.520 --> 0:20:00.360
<v Speaker 1>that he's trying to bring peace to Russia Ukraine.

0:20:00.480 --> 0:20:03.320
<v Speaker 5>It's the war for me. It's always the war for me.

0:20:03.520 --> 0:20:05.760
<v Speaker 5>I mean, if you're going to distract, you got to

0:20:05.800 --> 0:20:08.760
<v Speaker 5>do it with a war, because that's when you get

0:20:08.920 --> 0:20:13.000
<v Speaker 5>the CNNs of the world can prepare their their theme songs.

0:20:13.200 --> 0:20:17.480
<v Speaker 4>Right and exactly, Caribbean.

0:20:18.320 --> 0:20:21.960
<v Speaker 5>Caribbean freedom. You know, that's when you get all the

0:20:22.240 --> 0:20:24.480
<v Speaker 5>all the newspapers and everyone's there, well, we have to

0:20:24.480 --> 0:20:25.440
<v Speaker 5>support the president.

0:20:25.440 --> 0:20:26.080
<v Speaker 3>We're at war.

0:20:26.920 --> 0:20:28.960
<v Speaker 5>You get people saying this is the day Donald Trump

0:20:29.000 --> 0:20:31.879
<v Speaker 5>became president. You can't beat a war if you're trying

0:20:31.880 --> 0:20:34.360
<v Speaker 5>to take the focus off of something else. I mean,

0:20:34.640 --> 0:20:36.800
<v Speaker 5>I'm fairly certain there was a whole movie that was

0:20:36.920 --> 0:20:40.480
<v Speaker 5>kind of about that. Yes do yeah, that sort of

0:20:40.480 --> 0:20:43.720
<v Speaker 5>gave us a praeze. So it's absolutely that for me.

0:20:43.840 --> 0:20:48.520
<v Speaker 5>The the Ukraine Russia stuff is I mean, have you

0:20:48.840 --> 0:20:52.960
<v Speaker 5>seen anything more incompetent than well, this is our plan. No,

0:20:53.080 --> 0:20:56.879
<v Speaker 5>this isn't our plan. Marco Rubio have nothing that doesn't

0:20:56.920 --> 0:20:59.200
<v Speaker 5>even know about this plan. Oh, Marco Rubier wrote this plan.

0:20:59.320 --> 0:21:03.520
<v Speaker 5>It's unbelieve and beyond the incompetence, just the national security

0:21:03.640 --> 0:21:07.880
<v Speaker 5>implications of having a plan out there. And we can't

0:21:07.880 --> 0:21:10.320
<v Speaker 5>get a straight answer as to whether this plan is

0:21:10.400 --> 0:21:14.080
<v Speaker 5>Russian talking points or whether it's from the administration because

0:21:14.119 --> 0:21:15.440
<v Speaker 5>we can't tell the difference.

0:21:16.080 --> 0:21:21.080
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, yeah, you know, it's nuts, but it's part of

0:21:21.119 --> 0:21:25.880
<v Speaker 1>Donald Trump's tri facta for trying to get the Nobel

0:21:25.880 --> 0:21:30.679
<v Speaker 1>Peace Prize, which he has now missed the window on

0:21:31.000 --> 0:21:33.639
<v Speaker 1>at least for twenty twenty five. But it is funny

0:21:33.680 --> 0:21:36.080
<v Speaker 1>to me because it's like, you know, he does on

0:21:36.200 --> 0:21:39.119
<v Speaker 1>some level like he kind of wants to do the

0:21:39.160 --> 0:21:42.360
<v Speaker 1>stuff presidents do, but just not with any of the

0:21:42.400 --> 0:21:45.440
<v Speaker 1>follow up for any of the you know, like he's

0:21:45.680 --> 0:21:47.640
<v Speaker 1>like he's like, yeah, I'm gonna bring peace and I'm

0:21:47.640 --> 0:21:51.760
<v Speaker 1>gonna do this. Like it's a very sort of distracted view,

0:21:52.680 --> 0:21:55.960
<v Speaker 1>kind of you know, half hearted view on presidenting. But

0:21:56.080 --> 0:21:58.280
<v Speaker 1>ultimately he's really just trying to make money.

0:21:58.320 --> 0:22:01.040
<v Speaker 5>Well, he's just trying to make money, finds me of

0:22:01.359 --> 0:22:03.320
<v Speaker 5>you know, there's a sort of a famous saying that

0:22:03.359 --> 0:22:06.040
<v Speaker 5>writers have I love to have written, but I hate writing.

0:22:05.880 --> 0:22:07.439
<v Speaker 4>Speak for yourself. I hate all of it.

0:22:08.280 --> 0:22:10.719
<v Speaker 5>Right, But it's the same. That to me, that's Trump

0:22:10.840 --> 0:22:14.639
<v Speaker 5>with presidenting. He doesn't like presidenting, you know. He doesn't

0:22:14.920 --> 0:22:19.600
<v Speaker 5>like having to negotiate a peace treaty or doing any

0:22:19.600 --> 0:22:21.879
<v Speaker 5>of the work. What he wants is the credit. And

0:22:22.080 --> 0:22:24.720
<v Speaker 5>it's just that simple. That's all he wants is the credit.

0:22:24.760 --> 0:22:27.040
<v Speaker 5>He's not interested in the work. He couldn't care less

0:22:27.160 --> 0:22:30.960
<v Speaker 5>if there was peace between Russia and Ukraine. Obviously he'd

0:22:30.960 --> 0:22:33.080
<v Speaker 5>probably just be happier if Russia had been able to

0:22:33.200 --> 0:22:37.080
<v Speaker 5>swallow up Ukraine. Yeah, but he just ultimately doesn't care.

0:22:37.320 --> 0:22:39.400
<v Speaker 5>He just wants the credit. He wants, like you said,

0:22:39.440 --> 0:22:41.520
<v Speaker 5>he wants the Nobel Prize. He doesn't want to do

0:22:41.600 --> 0:22:44.440
<v Speaker 5>the work that you would, you know, like to think

0:22:44.600 --> 0:22:48.040
<v Speaker 5>is involved in getting a Nobel prize. He just wants

0:22:48.080 --> 0:22:50.000
<v Speaker 5>the prize. He wants the trophy. And we see this

0:22:50.040 --> 0:22:52.439
<v Speaker 5>when he goes to these events, the sporting events, and

0:22:52.480 --> 0:22:54.560
<v Speaker 5>he leaves with the trophy that he was supposed to

0:22:54.600 --> 0:22:57.000
<v Speaker 5>give the team, and we saw that happen. That's Donald

0:22:57.040 --> 0:22:59.359
<v Speaker 5>Trump in a nutshell. He just wants the trophy.

0:22:59.440 --> 0:23:02.240
<v Speaker 1>By the way, this week not didn't like make the

0:23:02.240 --> 0:23:04.920
<v Speaker 1>top of the newsfeed, But I think it is important

0:23:05.040 --> 0:23:09.560
<v Speaker 1>is that this week in Las Vegas, Ice Barbie and

0:23:10.000 --> 0:23:15.280
<v Speaker 1>FBI Director Cash Battl went to some kind of grand.

0:23:15.000 --> 0:23:16.760
<v Speaker 5>Praise Formula one.

0:23:16.840 --> 0:23:17.240
<v Speaker 3>Yeah.

0:23:17.320 --> 0:23:21.600
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, and they had a great time on our tax paradigm.

0:23:21.600 --> 0:23:22.800
<v Speaker 4>So I'm glad they're having fun.

0:23:23.119 --> 0:23:25.960
<v Speaker 5>Look, you can't spend all of the FBI's travel budget

0:23:26.000 --> 0:23:27.840
<v Speaker 5>on your girlfriend. You have to keep some for yourself.

0:23:28.400 --> 0:23:30.600
<v Speaker 5>It's right, I mean, that's just that's just fair. That

0:23:30.600 --> 0:23:33.200
<v Speaker 5>seems fair to me. So good for Cash, I say,

0:23:33.400 --> 0:23:35.080
<v Speaker 5>for getting out of the office, you.

0:23:35.040 --> 0:23:36.000
<v Speaker 4>Know, Cash Battel.

0:23:36.160 --> 0:23:39.840
<v Speaker 1>Also this week we discovered the Cash Battel's girlfriend, twenty

0:23:39.880 --> 0:23:45.560
<v Speaker 1>seven year old conservative influencer Slash Singer, is guarded by

0:23:45.560 --> 0:23:46.639
<v Speaker 1>the Swat Team.

0:23:47.359 --> 0:23:47.639
<v Speaker 3>Yeah.

0:23:47.760 --> 0:23:51.399
<v Speaker 5>The extent to which this entire administration is a grift,

0:23:51.680 --> 0:23:55.680
<v Speaker 5>it's absolutely unreal, Like even I think, beyond the most

0:23:55.720 --> 0:24:01.520
<v Speaker 5>cynical person's wildest dreams. Just every possible method or mode

0:24:01.880 --> 0:24:06.200
<v Speaker 5>of grifting is being taken advantage of by just about

0:24:06.320 --> 0:24:09.760
<v Speaker 5>every official in this administration. I mean, you know, you

0:24:09.880 --> 0:24:12.800
<v Speaker 5>absolutely don't have to hand it to them, but it

0:24:12.880 --> 0:24:16.520
<v Speaker 5>is truly remarkable. I mean, we've Obviously we've lived through

0:24:16.800 --> 0:24:19.239
<v Speaker 5>both in the history of our country and even in

0:24:19.600 --> 0:24:22.320
<v Speaker 5>you know, just the short history of my life and

0:24:22.359 --> 0:24:25.560
<v Speaker 5>the longer history of your life. But we've lived through

0:24:25.960 --> 0:24:32.359
<v Speaker 5>grifting administrations, unscrupulous administrations. But I think you could pretty

0:24:32.400 --> 0:24:35.639
<v Speaker 5>much stack them all up, all the previous ones in

0:24:35.680 --> 0:24:38.320
<v Speaker 5>one stack, and put the Trump grifts in another stack,

0:24:38.560 --> 0:24:41.879
<v Speaker 5>and the Trump grifts would outweigh I think every single

0:24:42.160 --> 0:24:47.320
<v Speaker 5>previous administration's grifts throughout the history of this country.

0:24:47.440 --> 0:24:51.520
<v Speaker 1>We need a word, an expression for what the Teapot

0:24:51.560 --> 0:25:00.480
<v Speaker 1>Dome scandal like with crypto and double dealing and insider

0:25:00.680 --> 0:25:06.520
<v Speaker 1>trading and influence trading, and your son in law who's

0:25:06.560 --> 0:25:10.959
<v Speaker 1>negotiating all these deals is also not in government, but

0:25:11.040 --> 0:25:15.359
<v Speaker 1>he is also negotiating the Russian peace treaty and also

0:25:15.440 --> 0:25:18.320
<v Speaker 1>in the Middle East, but he also takes money from

0:25:18.840 --> 0:25:22.800
<v Speaker 1>a lot of Middle Eastern countries for his wealth fund.

0:25:23.119 --> 0:25:25.080
<v Speaker 4>I mean, it's like, what is that.

0:25:25.240 --> 0:25:27.560
<v Speaker 1>It feels like there's got to be a bigger word

0:25:27.600 --> 0:25:28.720
<v Speaker 1>than cryptocracy.

0:25:29.119 --> 0:25:33.199
<v Speaker 5>And honestly, I'm out a losstocracy because well, because everything

0:25:33.240 --> 0:25:35.480
<v Speaker 5>you said is it's just I don't know, it's a

0:25:35.480 --> 0:25:38.560
<v Speaker 5>trump oocracy, Like I don't know what else to call

0:25:38.600 --> 0:25:43.360
<v Speaker 5>it like it's every single aspect of his presidency is

0:25:43.520 --> 0:25:48.080
<v Speaker 5>to enrich him, to help him. And I mean, we've

0:25:48.080 --> 0:25:51.360
<v Speaker 5>seen Richard Nixon and people like that before, but they

0:25:51.359 --> 0:25:55.400
<v Speaker 5>are rank amateurs compared to the level of.

0:25:55.359 --> 0:25:56.440
<v Speaker 3>What's going on now.

0:25:56.560 --> 0:25:59.960
<v Speaker 5>It's absolutely unreal. You can't even say, like the teapot

0:26:00.080 --> 0:26:02.880
<v Speaker 5>dome scandal is a perfect example, because it's the one

0:26:02.960 --> 0:26:04.720
<v Speaker 5>thing we remember from that.

0:26:04.920 --> 0:26:05.880
<v Speaker 4>You can't do that.

0:26:05.960 --> 0:26:10.320
<v Speaker 5>Now there's a new teapot dome level scandal every damn day.

0:26:10.400 --> 0:26:14.159
<v Speaker 1>Speak for yourself, man, I remember it all from the

0:26:14.240 --> 0:26:19.080
<v Speaker 1>teapot Don't periods kidding? I was so mean will you

0:26:19.200 --> 0:26:20.000
<v Speaker 1>never come back?

0:26:21.280 --> 0:26:24.080
<v Speaker 5>Earlier when I said your longer history as opposed to

0:26:24.080 --> 0:26:25.400
<v Speaker 5>my shorter history.

0:26:25.119 --> 0:26:26.359
<v Speaker 4>Will you never come back?

0:26:26.600 --> 0:26:28.600
<v Speaker 5>Can you always never come back?

0:26:29.240 --> 0:26:32.280
<v Speaker 4>Don't? I would like to invite you not to come back.

0:26:32.760 --> 0:26:37.280
<v Speaker 5>I will accept your non invitation to always come back.

0:26:37.880 --> 0:26:42.879
<v Speaker 1>Actually, you can come back because I like you. Jacob

0:26:42.960 --> 0:26:48.000
<v Speaker 1>rubash Kin is an analyst and reporter at Inside Elections.

0:26:48.359 --> 0:26:51.920
<v Speaker 1>Jacob Rubashkin, Welcome back to Fast Politics.

0:26:51.920 --> 0:26:53.600
<v Speaker 6>Always a pleasure, happy to be here.

0:26:53.800 --> 0:26:58.160
<v Speaker 1>So you are here to be our election whisperer, and

0:26:58.280 --> 0:27:00.879
<v Speaker 1>I'm going to make you start with an election you

0:27:00.920 --> 0:27:04.679
<v Speaker 1>were not prepared to weigh in on. Because what we

0:27:04.800 --> 0:27:07.919
<v Speaker 1>do at this podcast is we put people in very

0:27:08.160 --> 0:27:10.520
<v Speaker 1>uncomfortable situations because.

0:27:10.119 --> 0:27:12.080
<v Speaker 4>We don't tell them what we're going to ask them about.

0:27:12.160 --> 0:27:15.320
<v Speaker 1>And we do that because it's a because of being

0:27:15.440 --> 0:27:19.760
<v Speaker 1>very disorganized. So there is a special election in Tennessee.

0:27:20.160 --> 0:27:23.760
<v Speaker 1>It is Mark Green's seat. It is a R plus

0:27:23.920 --> 0:27:28.640
<v Speaker 1>twenty two. It is happening the Tuesday after Thanksgiving, and

0:27:29.119 --> 0:27:34.160
<v Speaker 1>both Democrats and Republicans are just pouring money into it.

0:27:34.320 --> 0:27:37.600
<v Speaker 8>Explain, yeah, this special election, like you said, it's Mark

0:27:37.680 --> 0:27:39.960
<v Speaker 8>Green's seats. So Mark Green was a Republican congressman. He

0:27:40.080 --> 0:27:43.320
<v Speaker 8>resigned over the summer. By all rights, this should be

0:27:43.359 --> 0:27:47.560
<v Speaker 8>an incredibly Republican seat, an easy hold for the Republican Party.

0:27:47.920 --> 0:27:49.840
<v Speaker 8>But there are two things going on here. The first

0:27:49.920 --> 0:27:52.680
<v Speaker 8>is the shape of the district itself. Tennessee drew a

0:27:52.720 --> 0:27:56.600
<v Speaker 8>pretty aggressive gerrymander following the twenty twenty census. There used

0:27:56.640 --> 0:27:59.199
<v Speaker 8>to be two Democratic seats in Tennessee, one in Memphis

0:27:59.240 --> 0:28:01.359
<v Speaker 8>and one in Nashville. And what they did was they

0:28:01.480 --> 0:28:04.119
<v Speaker 8>left the Memphis one, but they cracked the Nashville one,

0:28:04.160 --> 0:28:07.600
<v Speaker 8>and they distributed little pieces of Nashville across three different

0:28:07.640 --> 0:28:11.679
<v Speaker 8>districts in Middle Tennessee, so that there was no concentration

0:28:11.760 --> 0:28:14.879
<v Speaker 8>of Democratic votes. But what that means is that three

0:28:14.920 --> 0:28:18.480
<v Speaker 8>districts in Middle Tennessee all have a piece of Nashville,

0:28:18.800 --> 0:28:23.760
<v Speaker 8>and if turnout dynamics are such that Democratic voters are

0:28:23.800 --> 0:28:26.719
<v Speaker 8>super fired up and Republican voters are not fired up

0:28:26.760 --> 0:28:28.919
<v Speaker 8>and may not even know that there's an election going on,

0:28:29.280 --> 0:28:32.040
<v Speaker 8>that little piece of Nashville can punch above its weight

0:28:32.359 --> 0:28:36.080
<v Speaker 8>in those three districts. And that's exactly what's going on here,

0:28:36.240 --> 0:28:39.280
<v Speaker 8>is that it is a Republican district under normal conditions.

0:28:39.280 --> 0:28:44.000
<v Speaker 8>But the Democrats are hoping that the combination of the

0:28:44.040 --> 0:28:48.080
<v Speaker 8>president's poor approval rating, some Democratic momentum, and the fact

0:28:48.080 --> 0:28:50.800
<v Speaker 8>that this is a sleepy race the weekend after Thanksgiving

0:28:50.920 --> 0:28:54.400
<v Speaker 8>will allow them to reshape the electorate in such a

0:28:54.400 --> 0:28:57.280
<v Speaker 8>way that they can win what should be an unwinnable

0:28:57.320 --> 0:28:58.000
<v Speaker 8>seat for them.

0:28:58.120 --> 0:29:00.520
<v Speaker 1>And the candidate who is running for this seat is

0:29:00.520 --> 0:29:05.320
<v Speaker 1>a woman called aften Bane. Aften Bane, Yeah, we interviewed

0:29:05.360 --> 0:29:09.600
<v Speaker 1>her on this podcast and she is really interesting candidate,

0:29:09.680 --> 0:29:12.080
<v Speaker 1>and I think she's a really good example of if

0:29:12.120 --> 0:29:14.040
<v Speaker 1>you want to run a candidate in a place you

0:29:14.080 --> 0:29:19.080
<v Speaker 1>can't necessarily win because she is both an activist, grassroots activist,

0:29:19.160 --> 0:29:20.960
<v Speaker 1>so she has a lot of connections on the ground.

0:29:20.960 --> 0:29:24.200
<v Speaker 1>It's not like she is parachuting in. And then she

0:29:24.440 --> 0:29:30.520
<v Speaker 1>also is very beautiful and young and charismatic and out there. Right,

0:29:30.560 --> 0:29:34.719
<v Speaker 1>I mean, all of these are pieces when you're running

0:29:34.880 --> 0:29:37.840
<v Speaker 1>in anywhere, but especially when you're running in a very

0:29:37.840 --> 0:29:38.640
<v Speaker 1>tough district.

0:29:38.760 --> 0:29:41.680
<v Speaker 8>Right, yeah, no, I mean, look, it helps to look

0:29:41.720 --> 0:29:45.600
<v Speaker 8>the part. It helps to you know, have a political base,

0:29:45.680 --> 0:29:47.960
<v Speaker 8>as she does having served in the state legislature.

0:29:48.280 --> 0:29:49.800
<v Speaker 6>These days, it helps to be young.

0:29:50.000 --> 0:29:53.040
<v Speaker 8>Right, We're in a moment where after everything that went

0:29:53.080 --> 0:29:56.440
<v Speaker 8>down last year. I think Biden voters voters place a

0:29:56.520 --> 0:30:00.440
<v Speaker 8>premium on youth, or at least they place a whatever

0:30:00.480 --> 0:30:03.520
<v Speaker 8>the opposite of a premium is on being older.

0:30:03.880 --> 0:30:07.240
<v Speaker 1>And again, in voters defense, like they get fucked by

0:30:07.280 --> 0:30:10.880
<v Speaker 1>electing someone really old. They were told to trust the

0:30:10.880 --> 0:30:14.440
<v Speaker 1>Democratic Party that this candidate wasn't too old, and then

0:30:14.640 --> 0:30:17.560
<v Speaker 1>exactly the worst case scenario unfolded.

0:30:17.760 --> 0:30:20.160
<v Speaker 4>So they're right to be mad.

0:30:20.440 --> 0:30:23.160
<v Speaker 8>Yeah, And so I you know, I think that she

0:30:23.280 --> 0:30:25.640
<v Speaker 8>does bring a fair bit to the table. She's proved

0:30:25.680 --> 0:30:28.320
<v Speaker 8>to be an able fundraiser. But like you said, she

0:30:28.520 --> 0:30:32.000
<v Speaker 8>is very progressive. She is out there, and she's she's outspoken,

0:30:32.080 --> 0:30:37.280
<v Speaker 8>and so the Republicans woman, and she's exactly And Republicans

0:30:37.320 --> 0:30:40.120
<v Speaker 8>have amassed a whole treasure trove of clips of her

0:30:40.160 --> 0:30:42.360
<v Speaker 8>over the past couple of years, saying all sorts of

0:30:42.400 --> 0:30:46.480
<v Speaker 8>things that don't usually fly in particularly Republican areas, and

0:30:46.560 --> 0:30:48.280
<v Speaker 8>they are in the last couple of weeks of this

0:30:48.400 --> 0:30:51.400
<v Speaker 8>race putting all of that on TV an attempt to

0:30:51.840 --> 0:30:54.640
<v Speaker 8>push back against whatever sort of momentum.

0:30:54.400 --> 0:30:56.000
<v Speaker 6>She has going for her.

0:30:56.280 --> 0:30:58.960
<v Speaker 8>But you know, all of the data that we have

0:30:59.080 --> 0:31:02.520
<v Speaker 8>suggests that this race is closer than it has any

0:31:02.640 --> 0:31:05.240
<v Speaker 8>right to be. I have not seen anything that convinces

0:31:05.280 --> 0:31:07.320
<v Speaker 8>me that this is a race that often is going

0:31:07.400 --> 0:31:10.000
<v Speaker 8>to win. But when we talk about a Trump plus

0:31:10.040 --> 0:31:13.080
<v Speaker 8>twenty two district, I would not be surprised if this

0:31:13.120 --> 0:31:15.680
<v Speaker 8>is a single digit outcome when all is said and done.

0:31:15.840 --> 0:31:18.080
<v Speaker 6>So a significant shift.

0:31:17.760 --> 0:31:20.360
<v Speaker 8>From where we were just a year ago in the

0:31:20.400 --> 0:31:22.040
<v Speaker 8>twenty twenty four presidential election.

0:31:22.520 --> 0:31:25.000
<v Speaker 1>So let's talk about the rest and landscape. Why I

0:31:25.080 --> 0:31:27.400
<v Speaker 1>really brought you on here. I want you to talk

0:31:27.480 --> 0:31:31.960
<v Speaker 1>us through the dummy mander again. I'm being overly optimistic

0:31:31.960 --> 0:31:34.600
<v Speaker 1>because I'm a partisan hack. But I'm just going to

0:31:34.680 --> 0:31:36.720
<v Speaker 1>paint this scene for you and let you go wherever

0:31:36.760 --> 0:31:39.440
<v Speaker 1>you want with it. Trump went to the party and said,

0:31:39.480 --> 0:31:41.480
<v Speaker 1>I need you to get me five seats to the

0:31:41.560 --> 0:31:44.840
<v Speaker 1>Texas Republicans. They got in five seeds. Court said no.

0:31:45.560 --> 0:31:49.200
<v Speaker 1>Justice Alito at the Supreme Court shockingly said yes, Republicans

0:31:49.200 --> 0:31:52.479
<v Speaker 1>can have whatever they want. Now there are five seats

0:31:52.520 --> 0:31:55.600
<v Speaker 1>coming from California. Unless the Supreme Court is able to

0:31:55.640 --> 0:31:58.640
<v Speaker 1>do something, it will look real bad if they take

0:31:58.640 --> 0:32:01.560
<v Speaker 1>the five seats away from cal but give the five

0:32:01.640 --> 0:32:05.640
<v Speaker 1>seats to Texas. Though anything is possible. But the landscape

0:32:05.680 --> 0:32:08.160
<v Speaker 1>is really all up in the air right now. So

0:32:08.280 --> 0:32:11.200
<v Speaker 1>i'd love you to talk us through what it looks like.

0:32:11.440 --> 0:32:14.680
<v Speaker 1>First with the eye to jerrymandering. And then there's also

0:32:14.760 --> 0:32:17.800
<v Speaker 1>the question of Section two of the Voting Rights Act,

0:32:17.960 --> 0:32:21.080
<v Speaker 1>and that decision will come down in June. My first

0:32:21.160 --> 0:32:23.560
<v Speaker 1>question for you is, if that decision comes down in

0:32:23.640 --> 0:32:26.440
<v Speaker 1>June and the Supreme Court says you don't have to

0:32:26.560 --> 0:32:32.600
<v Speaker 1>have race negative jerrymandering or race sensitive jerrymandering, would that

0:32:32.880 --> 0:32:36.960
<v Speaker 1>affect the twenty twenty six election. Would the South get

0:32:37.040 --> 0:32:39.600
<v Speaker 1>more Republican seats in twenty twenty six.

0:32:39.960 --> 0:32:42.680
<v Speaker 8>If that decision comes down in June, and that decision

0:32:42.960 --> 0:32:47.120
<v Speaker 8>is a case about the Louisiana congressional map, which currently

0:32:47.400 --> 0:32:51.600
<v Speaker 8>has two black opportunity districts. They had to redraw the

0:32:51.640 --> 0:32:54.000
<v Speaker 8>map ahead of last year to take it from one

0:32:54.040 --> 0:32:57.080
<v Speaker 8>to two, that decision does have the potential, like you said,

0:32:57.080 --> 0:33:00.520
<v Speaker 8>to eviscerate a core component of the Voting Act as

0:33:00.560 --> 0:33:03.360
<v Speaker 8>it pertains to redistricting. If it comes down in June,

0:33:03.440 --> 0:33:06.080
<v Speaker 8>that is too late for anything to happen for the

0:33:06.080 --> 0:33:07.760
<v Speaker 8>twenty twenty sixth election.

0:33:07.680 --> 0:33:09.760
<v Speaker 4>But it will affect twenty twenty eight.

0:33:09.920 --> 0:33:10.440
<v Speaker 6>Absolutely.

0:33:10.480 --> 0:33:10.680
<v Speaker 3>Yes.

0:33:10.720 --> 0:33:15.520
<v Speaker 8>If the Supreme Court were to say states with significant

0:33:15.560 --> 0:33:20.040
<v Speaker 8>minority populations and largely that means black populations don't have

0:33:20.280 --> 0:33:24.200
<v Speaker 8>to create black opportunity districts, which is the term of art,

0:33:24.400 --> 0:33:31.120
<v Speaker 8>then I would anticipate we will see at the least Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi,

0:33:31.400 --> 0:33:36.440
<v Speaker 8>potentially South Carolina, and Tennessee at a minimum all attempt

0:33:36.640 --> 0:33:40.080
<v Speaker 8>a redistrict ahead of twenty twenty eight, because all of

0:33:40.120 --> 0:33:42.720
<v Speaker 8>those states have at least one seat that is a

0:33:42.760 --> 0:33:46.280
<v Speaker 8>heavily democratic black majority or black plurality district.

0:33:46.360 --> 0:33:47.920
<v Speaker 6>Because they're required to by law.

0:33:48.080 --> 0:33:52.160
<v Speaker 8>And then there are additional opportunities potentially in states like

0:33:52.240 --> 0:33:55.200
<v Speaker 8>Texas and Florida where obviously it's not just oh, there's

0:33:55.320 --> 0:33:59.480
<v Speaker 8>one district where the legislature has drawn most of the

0:33:59.480 --> 0:34:02.440
<v Speaker 8>black vote into you know, these are huge states that

0:34:02.520 --> 0:34:06.400
<v Speaker 8>have different pockets of racial concentration throughout the state, some

0:34:06.440 --> 0:34:08.560
<v Speaker 8>of which are protected by the VRA, some of which

0:34:08.600 --> 0:34:12.800
<v Speaker 8>are not VRA. Jurisprudence is actually kind of in flux

0:34:12.880 --> 0:34:15.040
<v Speaker 8>right now, and this is getting very in the weeds here,

0:34:15.080 --> 0:34:17.920
<v Speaker 8>but the Fifth Circuit has said it has to be

0:34:17.960 --> 0:34:21.000
<v Speaker 8>a single racial group to qualify as a VRA district.

0:34:21.040 --> 0:34:24.200
<v Speaker 8>You can't say, well, this really diverse area, you know,

0:34:24.239 --> 0:34:27.240
<v Speaker 8>has thirty percent Black voters and thirty percent Hispanic voters

0:34:27.239 --> 0:34:31.000
<v Speaker 8>and twenty percent Asian voters. Therefore it deserves a district

0:34:31.000 --> 0:34:33.920
<v Speaker 8>where those communities can elect a representative of their choosing.

0:34:34.520 --> 0:34:36.759
<v Speaker 8>It says, if it's not you know, forty or more

0:34:36.800 --> 0:34:39.520
<v Speaker 8>percent Black, or forty or more percent Asian, or forty

0:34:39.600 --> 0:34:42.359
<v Speaker 8>or more percent Hispanic, it doesn't qualify. But that's only

0:34:42.360 --> 0:34:45.120
<v Speaker 8>the Fifth Circuit, so like the Eleventh Circuit in Georgia

0:34:45.640 --> 0:34:48.440
<v Speaker 8>hasn't said whether they agree with that. Yet there's a

0:34:48.480 --> 0:34:51.440
<v Speaker 8>lot up in the air, as there always is with redistricting.

0:34:51.760 --> 0:34:54.200
<v Speaker 8>And if the Supreme Court steps in and says we're

0:34:54.200 --> 0:34:58.040
<v Speaker 8>going to undermine the last essentially thirty five years of

0:34:58.440 --> 0:35:02.120
<v Speaker 8>VRA interpretation, which they might, which they might, they might not.

0:35:02.440 --> 0:35:05.080
<v Speaker 8>I think that people are always get a little overconfident

0:35:05.120 --> 0:35:06.959
<v Speaker 8>when they try and predict out what the Supreme Court

0:35:07.040 --> 0:35:09.200
<v Speaker 8>is going to do. But there's a chance that the

0:35:09.360 --> 0:35:14.560
<v Speaker 8>redistricting chaos we've seen this year is only multiplied in

0:35:14.760 --> 0:35:18.960
<v Speaker 8>two years when the states are unfettered by the Voting

0:35:19.040 --> 0:35:20.880
<v Speaker 8>Rights Act requirements.

0:35:20.520 --> 0:35:23.279
<v Speaker 1>In June, when that comes down, no matter what the

0:35:23.320 --> 0:35:26.000
<v Speaker 1>decision is, it'll be too soon for twenty twenty six.

0:35:26.400 --> 0:35:29.600
<v Speaker 8>Yeah, yeah, I mean, look, Texas filing deadline is December eighth, right,

0:35:29.640 --> 0:35:33.480
<v Speaker 8>Illinois filing deadline already passed. States filing deadlines are coming up.

0:35:33.560 --> 0:35:37.719
<v Speaker 8>Primaries start in March the earliest. The earliest primaries begin

0:35:37.800 --> 0:35:40.439
<v Speaker 8>in March. By the time June rolls around, it will

0:35:40.480 --> 0:35:44.239
<v Speaker 8>be far too late for the train to be rewound

0:35:44.640 --> 0:35:48.279
<v Speaker 8>on redistricting. So for the twenty twenty six cycle, I

0:35:48.320 --> 0:35:51.600
<v Speaker 8>honestly think it's highly unlikely, no matter what the Court rules,

0:35:51.880 --> 0:35:55.560
<v Speaker 8>that we'll see the dismantling of VRA districts in America.

0:35:55.840 --> 0:35:58.920
<v Speaker 1>That means in twenty twenty six cycle we have a

0:35:58.960 --> 0:36:02.120
<v Speaker 1>pretty good sense of what the jerry nander will look like.

0:36:02.440 --> 0:36:05.279
<v Speaker 6>Well, not necessarily.

0:36:04.640 --> 0:36:06.600
<v Speaker 4>Okay, so then tell us why.

0:36:06.800 --> 0:36:07.120
<v Speaker 6>Yeah.

0:36:07.200 --> 0:36:10.360
<v Speaker 8>So the frustrating thing, of course, is that even the

0:36:10.400 --> 0:36:13.200
<v Speaker 8>maps that have been passed this cycle, there's a tremendous

0:36:13.200 --> 0:36:16.520
<v Speaker 8>amount of uncertainty. So you mentioned the Texas map that

0:36:16.680 --> 0:36:19.600
<v Speaker 8>was struck down by a federal district court in al Paso.

0:36:19.880 --> 0:36:23.080
<v Speaker 8>The Republicans appealed to the Supreme Court. Now, Justice Alito

0:36:23.160 --> 0:36:26.080
<v Speaker 8>did implement a stay, but that's a very brief administrative

0:36:26.120 --> 0:36:29.360
<v Speaker 8>stay that suggests that sometime in the next week, essentially

0:36:29.760 --> 0:36:33.320
<v Speaker 8>the full Court will consider what to do on that front,

0:36:33.360 --> 0:36:35.600
<v Speaker 8>and there's a chance that they will let that lower

0:36:35.640 --> 0:36:38.480
<v Speaker 8>court ruling stand. I think most people still think they

0:36:38.480 --> 0:36:41.880
<v Speaker 8>will keep the stay in place and do full arguments

0:36:41.920 --> 0:36:45.080
<v Speaker 8>next year. Maybe, but the Texas map is currently in flux.

0:36:45.320 --> 0:36:50.320
<v Speaker 8>You have a map in Missouri that was a gerrymander

0:36:50.680 --> 0:36:53.840
<v Speaker 8>that Republicans drew earlier this year to draw out a

0:36:53.840 --> 0:36:58.200
<v Speaker 8>Democratic representative in Kansas City, and that map could be

0:36:58.200 --> 0:37:01.840
<v Speaker 8>blocked by a referendum, and you've got the potential for

0:37:02.360 --> 0:37:08.040
<v Speaker 8>democratic redistricting in Virginia early next year and Republican redistricting

0:37:08.160 --> 0:37:09.799
<v Speaker 8>in Florida early next year.

0:37:10.160 --> 0:37:13.560
<v Speaker 4>In Florida redistrict, I thought they were pretty tight.

0:37:13.840 --> 0:37:14.680
<v Speaker 6>They can try.

0:37:14.920 --> 0:37:18.200
<v Speaker 8>They may run into some timeline challenges just because we're

0:37:18.280 --> 0:37:21.400
<v Speaker 8>later in the game, but remember Florida's primary isn't until August,

0:37:21.600 --> 0:37:23.880
<v Speaker 8>and so by virtue of their own calendar, they have

0:37:23.960 --> 0:37:25.960
<v Speaker 8>a little bit more wiggle room. I don't know how

0:37:25.960 --> 0:37:28.560
<v Speaker 8>aggressive they can get, but I think you could probably

0:37:28.640 --> 0:37:32.080
<v Speaker 8>draw a map that gets Republicans in additional two seats

0:37:32.160 --> 0:37:35.720
<v Speaker 8>at minimum out of Florida if they go down that path.

0:37:35.760 --> 0:37:38.800
<v Speaker 8>And that's you know, that's twenty eight districts. Virginia is

0:37:38.840 --> 0:37:43.440
<v Speaker 8>another dozen districts. Texas obviously thirty eight. So we still

0:37:43.520 --> 0:37:47.360
<v Speaker 8>have seventy five congressional districts that are somewhat up in

0:37:47.400 --> 0:37:50.840
<v Speaker 8>the air as we know close out twenty twenty five.

0:37:51.320 --> 0:37:54.399
<v Speaker 4>Those five seats in California, though, are set now.

0:37:54.680 --> 0:37:56.880
<v Speaker 8>Yeah, so the California map, I think most of the

0:37:56.920 --> 0:37:59.440
<v Speaker 8>people that I talked to in both parties are pretty

0:38:00.160 --> 0:38:02.560
<v Speaker 8>or that the California map is going to be in

0:38:02.600 --> 0:38:05.279
<v Speaker 8>place that the Republicans have been unsuccessful in all of

0:38:05.320 --> 0:38:06.440
<v Speaker 8>their court challenges.

0:38:06.520 --> 0:38:09.319
<v Speaker 6>You know, the DOJ, the Trump DOJ just filed a

0:38:09.360 --> 0:38:10.640
<v Speaker 6>suit against.

0:38:10.280 --> 0:38:13.560
<v Speaker 8>The California map, but I don't think anyone is particularly

0:38:13.800 --> 0:38:17.560
<v Speaker 8>confident that suit will prevail. So, yes, the Prop fifty

0:38:17.640 --> 0:38:21.320
<v Speaker 8>map that was designed to improve democratic odds in five seats,

0:38:21.480 --> 0:38:24.680
<v Speaker 8>five Republican health seats, will be the map almost certainly

0:38:24.800 --> 0:38:26.400
<v Speaker 8>for the twenty twenty six mid terms.

0:38:26.640 --> 0:38:30.359
<v Speaker 1>That means Democrats definitely have a five seat advantage at

0:38:30.440 --> 0:38:35.239
<v Speaker 1>least for that jerrymandering that Republicans have done Texas. What

0:38:35.400 --> 0:38:38.600
<v Speaker 1>else They couldn't get Indiana though they've been trying.

0:38:38.960 --> 0:38:43.000
<v Speaker 6>Yeah, so Republicans got Texas, they got North.

0:38:42.760 --> 0:38:46.120
<v Speaker 1>Carolina, right, and that was one seat. That was one seat,

0:38:46.160 --> 0:38:48.800
<v Speaker 1>and that's because they have a super majority in the House.

0:38:49.320 --> 0:38:53.440
<v Speaker 8>Correct, and redistricting in North Carolina does not require the

0:38:53.480 --> 0:38:55.239
<v Speaker 8>governor's signature.

0:38:54.880 --> 0:38:59.560
<v Speaker 1>Because North Carolina had Democratic governors and super powerful state

0:39:00.040 --> 0:39:02.759
<v Speaker 1>legislatures that have been working hard to screw over those

0:39:02.760 --> 0:39:04.920
<v Speaker 1>governors for a couple of years.

0:39:05.000 --> 0:39:07.719
<v Speaker 8>Right, the North Carolina legislature has taken a lot of

0:39:07.760 --> 0:39:11.000
<v Speaker 8>powers away from the governors. As like you said, North Carolina,

0:39:11.000 --> 0:39:13.240
<v Speaker 8>of course, used to be solid Democratic at all levels,

0:39:13.280 --> 0:39:17.120
<v Speaker 8>but over the last twenty years they keep electing Democrats governor.

0:39:17.280 --> 0:39:20.680
<v Speaker 8>But the state legislature is pretty consistently Republican and so

0:39:20.719 --> 0:39:23.320
<v Speaker 8>they've taken a lot of powers away from the governor.

0:39:23.600 --> 0:39:26.120
<v Speaker 8>So they got that. You know, Ohio, It kind of

0:39:26.160 --> 0:39:29.000
<v Speaker 8>depends how you do the math. In Ohio. You can

0:39:29.040 --> 0:39:32.439
<v Speaker 8>either give Republicans a seat or not, or a half

0:39:32.480 --> 0:39:34.600
<v Speaker 8>a seat if you want to hedge. But the Marcy

0:39:34.680 --> 0:39:37.080
<v Speaker 8>Captor seat does get a little bit worse for her,

0:39:37.120 --> 0:39:38.480
<v Speaker 8>and it was already pretty bad for her.

0:39:38.600 --> 0:39:40.880
<v Speaker 6>So that is another one. Missouri.

0:39:41.280 --> 0:39:43.200
<v Speaker 8>You know, will see what happens, but that one you

0:39:43.560 --> 0:39:46.040
<v Speaker 8>have to put in the Republican column until if and

0:39:46.160 --> 0:39:49.479
<v Speaker 8>until it's paused or rolled back. So you know, five

0:39:49.520 --> 0:39:52.600
<v Speaker 8>in Texas, one in North Carolina, one in Missouri. That

0:39:52.600 --> 0:39:55.760
<v Speaker 8>that gets you to seven and then you know, depending

0:39:55.760 --> 0:39:59.320
<v Speaker 8>on how you want to count Ohio. But the number

0:39:59.480 --> 0:40:03.520
<v Speaker 8>is is smaller than Republicans would have liked. I think

0:40:03.520 --> 0:40:07.279
<v Speaker 8>when Trump first set down this path in the summer, right,

0:40:07.360 --> 0:40:10.520
<v Speaker 8>he wanted five in Texas. He wanted not just your

0:40:10.520 --> 0:40:13.120
<v Speaker 8>one in Missouri and one in North Carolina, but he

0:40:13.160 --> 0:40:15.880
<v Speaker 8>wanted two in Indiana, he wanted one in Kansas, he

0:40:15.920 --> 0:40:20.200
<v Speaker 8>wanted one in Nebraska, probably wanted four in Florida, and

0:40:20.280 --> 0:40:23.840
<v Speaker 8>he didn't even think that Democrats might get five to

0:40:23.880 --> 0:40:28.239
<v Speaker 8>counterbalance in Texas. So the math has shifted considerably over

0:40:28.280 --> 0:40:31.239
<v Speaker 8>the last couple months. And to your point, I think

0:40:31.239 --> 0:40:34.680
<v Speaker 8>there's ultimately an outcome here where Democrats end up with

0:40:34.840 --> 0:40:38.960
<v Speaker 8>more favorable districts across the country when all is said

0:40:39.000 --> 0:40:42.319
<v Speaker 8>and done, than they had at the outset, which would

0:40:42.320 --> 0:40:46.279
<v Speaker 8>be a pretty significant turn of events. And underline how

0:40:46.360 --> 0:40:49.640
<v Speaker 8>in that scenario, how that push would backfire on Trump.

0:40:49.680 --> 0:40:51.279
<v Speaker 1>And we're going to turn our eye now to the

0:40:51.360 --> 0:40:55.880
<v Speaker 1>Senate math because there's a sense and again we just

0:40:56.040 --> 0:40:59.080
<v Speaker 1>know the twenty five cycle and the polls, and we

0:40:59.160 --> 0:41:02.920
<v Speaker 1>can use that information to extrapolate what we can. But

0:41:03.360 --> 0:41:06.239
<v Speaker 1>there's a feeling that Democrats are in a much better

0:41:06.239 --> 0:41:09.719
<v Speaker 1>position than they have been. But this Senate map is

0:41:09.760 --> 0:41:13.960
<v Speaker 1>still a real cluster fox. So let's just go Maine

0:41:14.000 --> 0:41:15.880
<v Speaker 1>across the country. So start with Maine.

0:41:16.040 --> 0:41:19.160
<v Speaker 8>Yeah, so your word mind, But I would say that

0:41:19.160 --> 0:41:22.279
<v Speaker 8>the Senate map is a very difficult one for Democrats,

0:41:22.320 --> 0:41:24.360
<v Speaker 8>even in a favorable political environment.

0:41:24.440 --> 0:41:25.720
<v Speaker 6>So you've got Maine.

0:41:25.920 --> 0:41:28.399
<v Speaker 8>Maine is the only seat on the Senate map held

0:41:28.440 --> 0:41:31.680
<v Speaker 8>by a Republican, but one by Vice President Harris, one

0:41:31.719 --> 0:41:34.160
<v Speaker 8>by Joe Biden, and in twenty twenty one by Hillary

0:41:34.160 --> 0:41:36.680
<v Speaker 8>Clinton in twenty sixteen. By rights, that should make it

0:41:36.760 --> 0:41:39.640
<v Speaker 8>the top target for Democrats in twenty twenty six The

0:41:39.680 --> 0:41:42.400
<v Speaker 8>only reason why it's arguably not the top target is

0:41:42.440 --> 0:41:45.680
<v Speaker 8>because Susan Collins is there, and she has proven to

0:41:45.760 --> 0:41:49.520
<v Speaker 8>be an incredibly difficult out. She has beaten back challenger

0:41:49.560 --> 0:41:52.520
<v Speaker 8>after challenger. She's beaten back some really heavy hitters on

0:41:52.560 --> 0:41:55.000
<v Speaker 8>the Democratic side, people with a ton of money, people

0:41:55.000 --> 0:41:58.239
<v Speaker 8>with a ton of electoral experience, and main voters just

0:41:58.320 --> 0:42:00.880
<v Speaker 8>keep on sending her back. Now, that's no reason to

0:42:00.920 --> 0:42:04.720
<v Speaker 8>believe that she can't lose this time, because everybody wins

0:42:04.800 --> 0:42:07.080
<v Speaker 8>up until the moment that they lose. But it does

0:42:07.160 --> 0:42:10.080
<v Speaker 8>mean that it's no sure thing to beat her, even

0:42:10.120 --> 0:42:14.040
<v Speaker 8>in a state that Kamala Harris carried by six seven

0:42:14.120 --> 0:42:17.160
<v Speaker 8>points at the top of the ticket. So that's the

0:42:17.560 --> 0:42:20.400
<v Speaker 8>first seat. You know, there are two seats Democrats absolutely

0:42:20.440 --> 0:42:22.560
<v Speaker 8>have to win in order to take back the Senate,

0:42:22.560 --> 0:42:25.400
<v Speaker 8>and one of those is Main where they've got themselves

0:42:25.480 --> 0:42:27.560
<v Speaker 8>a real headache of a primary and then a real

0:42:27.800 --> 0:42:30.759
<v Speaker 8>stalwart in Susan Collins waiting on the other side. And

0:42:30.800 --> 0:42:34.120
<v Speaker 8>the other is North Carolina, which is a perennial battleground.

0:42:34.440 --> 0:42:37.760
<v Speaker 8>Democrats haven't won a Senate race here since two thousand

0:42:37.760 --> 0:42:40.440
<v Speaker 8>and eight and kay Hagen, but they get really really

0:42:40.480 --> 0:42:43.279
<v Speaker 8>close every time, and they've got a great recruit there

0:42:43.360 --> 0:42:46.400
<v Speaker 8>and former Governor Roy Cooper, he won four terms as

0:42:46.400 --> 0:42:49.400
<v Speaker 8>state attorney general. He won two terms as governor even

0:42:49.480 --> 0:42:52.800
<v Speaker 8>as the state was voting Republican for many other offices.

0:42:53.120 --> 0:42:57.000
<v Speaker 8>And he's got a good match up there against Michael Wattley, Yes.

0:42:57.640 --> 0:43:00.239
<v Speaker 4>Who's an R and C guy.

0:43:00.320 --> 0:43:02.560
<v Speaker 8>Yeah, he's the Trump pick and that's why he gets

0:43:02.560 --> 0:43:06.120
<v Speaker 8>to be the nominee. But realistically, I talked to Republicans

0:43:06.360 --> 0:43:09.680
<v Speaker 8>all the time, you know, I think everyone understands that, well,

0:43:09.719 --> 0:43:11.640
<v Speaker 8>North Carolina is always going to be really close, It's

0:43:11.640 --> 0:43:14.160
<v Speaker 8>always going to be really competitive. On the surface, the

0:43:14.160 --> 0:43:19.359
<v Speaker 8>matchup of popular former governor, former state attorney general, well known,

0:43:19.440 --> 0:43:23.600
<v Speaker 8>well liked in the state, versus former chairman of the

0:43:23.760 --> 0:43:26.640
<v Speaker 8>RNC and chairman of the North Carolina Republican Party who's

0:43:26.640 --> 0:43:29.560
<v Speaker 8>never held office before and who nobody really knows is

0:43:29.640 --> 0:43:33.600
<v Speaker 8>not naturally the best contrast for Republicans. So that doesn't

0:43:33.640 --> 0:43:36.640
<v Speaker 8>mean this race mole costs half a billion dollars and

0:43:37.160 --> 0:43:39.000
<v Speaker 8>you know, end up in a two point margin one

0:43:39.000 --> 0:43:39.600
<v Speaker 8>way or the other.

0:43:39.880 --> 0:43:42.760
<v Speaker 6>But I think Democrats are most excited. I would say.

0:43:42.640 --> 0:43:46.000
<v Speaker 8>About about Roy Cooper in North Carolina, but that only

0:43:46.040 --> 0:43:48.280
<v Speaker 8>gets you to two right, and Democrats have to flip

0:43:48.360 --> 0:43:51.440
<v Speaker 8>four seats in order to win back the majority there

0:43:51.440 --> 0:43:52.040
<v Speaker 8>at forty seven.

0:43:52.080 --> 0:43:53.200
<v Speaker 6>They need to get to fifty one.

0:43:53.320 --> 0:43:55.040
<v Speaker 8>So then you have to look at this map and say,

0:43:55.080 --> 0:43:58.000
<v Speaker 8>all right, well, where can we find our two other seats?

0:43:58.080 --> 0:44:00.759
<v Speaker 8>And the reality is you got us start. You've got

0:44:00.760 --> 0:44:02.799
<v Speaker 8>to start digging a little deeper. And what you come

0:44:02.880 --> 0:44:06.240
<v Speaker 8>up with are you've got Ohio, where former Senator Shared

0:44:06.239 --> 0:44:08.680
<v Speaker 8>Brown is attempting to come back after he lost by

0:44:08.719 --> 0:44:10.040
<v Speaker 8>a couple points last cycle.

0:44:10.400 --> 0:44:13.960
<v Speaker 1>That's kind of a special election because it's to fill

0:44:14.280 --> 0:44:15.200
<v Speaker 1>the JD.

0:44:15.360 --> 0:44:15.879
<v Speaker 6>Van seat.

0:44:16.160 --> 0:44:19.319
<v Speaker 8>Yes, so John Hustad is the incumbent Republican. He was

0:44:19.320 --> 0:44:21.919
<v Speaker 8>appointed to that seat. He's the former lieutenant governor. He

0:44:22.120 --> 0:44:25.880
<v Speaker 8>has been elected statewide before, but not to that Senate seat,

0:44:26.120 --> 0:44:28.680
<v Speaker 8>and he's new in the chamber. Shared Brown, of course,

0:44:28.760 --> 0:44:32.520
<v Speaker 8>heavily recruited by Democrats to run this time around and

0:44:32.880 --> 0:44:37.120
<v Speaker 8>avoids a primary and all that stuff, So he's one potential.

0:44:37.440 --> 0:44:40.560
<v Speaker 8>Then you've got Iowa, where you have an open seat.

0:44:40.640 --> 0:44:44.000
<v Speaker 8>Senator Joni Ernst isn't seeking a third term. Democrats have

0:44:44.000 --> 0:44:47.839
<v Speaker 8>a primary there essentially a three person primary between state

0:44:47.880 --> 0:44:52.160
<v Speaker 8>Representative Josh Turik, State Senator Zach Walls, and veteran Nathan Sage.

0:44:52.280 --> 0:44:55.280
<v Speaker 8>Republicans have all lined up behind Congresswoman Ashley Hinson.

0:44:55.560 --> 0:44:58.360
<v Speaker 4>Iowa was a what and R plus Trump wonted.

0:44:58.160 --> 0:45:00.359
<v Speaker 8>By like twelve last time he went it by ten

0:45:00.560 --> 0:45:04.120
<v Speaker 8>or nine in twenty twenty and twenty sixteen. It's gotten

0:45:04.120 --> 0:45:06.640
<v Speaker 8>pretty republican. But here's what I'll say about Iowa and

0:45:06.640 --> 0:45:08.960
<v Speaker 8>the reason why I think that Iowa, of all of

0:45:09.000 --> 0:45:11.000
<v Speaker 8>these states that I'm mentioning here kind of in this

0:45:11.080 --> 0:45:13.960
<v Speaker 8>second and third tier, Iowa is the most intriguing to

0:45:14.000 --> 0:45:17.160
<v Speaker 8>me is for two reasons. Firstly, there's clearly something in

0:45:17.160 --> 0:45:19.600
<v Speaker 8>the water there if you look at special election results

0:45:19.840 --> 0:45:22.439
<v Speaker 8>at the state legislative level. Since the beginning of the year,

0:45:22.719 --> 0:45:26.200
<v Speaker 8>Iowa has been the location of the greatest Democratic overperformance

0:45:26.440 --> 0:45:29.120
<v Speaker 8>relative to twenty twenty four. We've had now half a

0:45:29.160 --> 0:45:31.839
<v Speaker 8>dozen state Senate and state House races in Iowa over

0:45:31.840 --> 0:45:35.080
<v Speaker 8>the last twelve months, and Democrats have I believe in

0:45:35.120 --> 0:45:38.520
<v Speaker 8>almost perhaps every single one of them overperformed well into

0:45:38.560 --> 0:45:41.479
<v Speaker 8>the double digits. They had some big wins, flipping state

0:45:41.520 --> 0:45:44.799
<v Speaker 8>Senate districts. They are breaking the Republican super majority. So

0:45:45.320 --> 0:45:48.920
<v Speaker 8>I think that there is an element of democratic energy

0:45:48.920 --> 0:45:49.480
<v Speaker 8>in Iowa.

0:45:49.920 --> 0:45:50.880
<v Speaker 6>Arguably, Iowa is.

0:45:50.880 --> 0:45:53.120
<v Speaker 8>In a bit of a localized recession right now due

0:45:53.120 --> 0:45:57.280
<v Speaker 8>to the outsize impact of the tariffs, of the soybean policy,

0:45:57.320 --> 0:45:58.400
<v Speaker 8>of the beef policy.

0:45:58.800 --> 0:45:59.959
<v Speaker 6>You know, you have a reason why.

0:46:00.239 --> 0:46:03.719
<v Speaker 8>You know, Chuck Grassley is very vocally pushing back against

0:46:03.920 --> 0:46:07.520
<v Speaker 8>Trump on tariffs, and that's because I think Iowa is

0:46:07.640 --> 0:46:11.920
<v Speaker 8>uniquely vulnerable to those challenges. So I think that there's

0:46:11.960 --> 0:46:15.240
<v Speaker 8>a possibility for Democrats to put up a real fight there. Plus,

0:46:15.239 --> 0:46:17.680
<v Speaker 8>you've got Rob sand running for governor who's going to

0:46:17.719 --> 0:46:19.480
<v Speaker 8>spend a ton of money and run a very good

0:46:19.520 --> 0:46:21.920
<v Speaker 8>campaign at the top of the ticket. So that's always

0:46:21.960 --> 0:46:25.120
<v Speaker 8>helpful for every other Democrat in the state. After Iowa,

0:46:25.200 --> 0:46:28.240
<v Speaker 8>you got to look to Texas, where Democrats have tried

0:46:28.280 --> 0:46:31.600
<v Speaker 8>and failed to make something happen for the last twenty

0:46:31.600 --> 0:46:35.000
<v Speaker 8>five years, not since Anne Richards has a Democrat won

0:46:35.120 --> 0:46:38.320
<v Speaker 8>statewide in Texas, so it's been quite a long time.

0:46:38.480 --> 0:46:41.920
<v Speaker 8>They've got a primary amongst themselves Colin Allread and James Tallerico.

0:46:42.120 --> 0:46:45.160
<v Speaker 8>But the real drama here is the Republican primary.

0:46:45.480 --> 0:46:48.799
<v Speaker 1>Yes, which we will continue on next time you come back.

0:46:49.520 --> 0:46:53.160
<v Speaker 1>Will you please come back? This was like one of

0:46:53.560 --> 0:46:57.600
<v Speaker 1>the I just I'm like obsessed with this interview.

0:46:58.120 --> 0:47:01.080
<v Speaker 4>I am a huge fan and also I've just learned

0:47:01.080 --> 0:47:02.440
<v Speaker 4>a lot of new stuff. So thanks.

0:47:02.760 --> 0:47:05.319
<v Speaker 8>Yeah, no, absolutely, there's We've got a full year to

0:47:05.360 --> 0:47:08.720
<v Speaker 8>digest all this, so there's a lot to talk about.

0:47:09.800 --> 0:47:10.839
<v Speaker 3>No more.

0:47:11.120 --> 0:47:16.839
<v Speaker 4>Pet Jesse Cannon BII. Mister Trump, Yes, I've heard about him.

0:47:17.160 --> 0:47:21.640
<v Speaker 2>He really loved the socialists Zorad, you know, the TikTok Bolshevik,

0:47:21.760 --> 0:47:22.880
<v Speaker 2>and he's showing it.

0:47:22.960 --> 0:47:24.720
<v Speaker 3>He's socializing fucking everything.

0:47:24.880 --> 0:47:29.360
<v Speaker 1>Yes, so this should be a shmongous scandal, a huge

0:47:29.600 --> 0:47:34.160
<v Speaker 1>mangus scandal. So Trump administration is buying parts of companies

0:47:34.200 --> 0:47:35.520
<v Speaker 1>now in itself.

0:47:35.760 --> 0:47:37.839
<v Speaker 4>Who doesn't love socialism? We love it.

0:47:37.960 --> 0:47:40.920
<v Speaker 1>And look, the American government has done this before, and

0:47:40.960 --> 0:47:44.120
<v Speaker 1>the thinking behind it is maybe not so insane. The

0:47:44.200 --> 0:47:46.960
<v Speaker 1>problem is because of Trump, He's done a lot of

0:47:47.000 --> 0:47:50.000
<v Speaker 1>crypt shit. Also, we don't know how he's vetting these companies.

0:47:50.520 --> 0:47:53.640
<v Speaker 1>But what you have to realize is, okay, so a

0:47:53.680 --> 0:47:57.600
<v Speaker 1>few things. There's no real strategy here. Some of it

0:47:57.800 --> 0:48:00.839
<v Speaker 1>is Trump wanting to, like king make or you know,

0:48:01.040 --> 0:48:03.399
<v Speaker 1>make over chores towards people he likes.

0:48:03.680 --> 0:48:06.239
<v Speaker 4>So that is for sure true.

0:48:06.320 --> 0:48:09.080
<v Speaker 3>Picked up winners and losers, pretty capitalism.

0:48:09.120 --> 0:48:13.440
<v Speaker 1>There's no strategy. It's a lot of cronyism one of

0:48:13.480 --> 0:48:17.360
<v Speaker 1>these situations. Then he went and bought oh in Intel,

0:48:17.400 --> 0:48:20.080
<v Speaker 1>I think he went and bought three million dollars of debt,

0:48:20.480 --> 0:48:22.880
<v Speaker 1>so personally I think it was Intel.

0:48:22.960 --> 0:48:26.320
<v Speaker 4>But you know, so there's real, like real.

0:48:26.200 --> 0:48:31.080
<v Speaker 1>Corruption level corruption here, which I think is also worth noting.

0:48:31.880 --> 0:48:35.120
<v Speaker 4>That's it for this episode of Fast Politics.

0:48:35.560 --> 0:48:41.319
<v Speaker 1>Tune in every Monday, Wednesday, Thursday and Saturday to hear

0:48:41.560 --> 0:48:46.000
<v Speaker 1>the best minds and politics make sense of all this chaos.

0:48:46.239 --> 0:48:49.080
<v Speaker 1>If you enjoy this podcast, please send it to a

0:48:49.120 --> 0:48:51.520
<v Speaker 1>friend and keep the conversation going.

0:48:52.000 --> 0:48:53.160
<v Speaker 4>Thanks for listening.