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Speaker 1: On this episode of News World. As the United States

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Speaker 1: and Israel continue their attacks on Iran, I wanted to

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Speaker 1: explore the broader global impact that the war in Iran

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Speaker 1: could have, particularly with China. I'm really pleased to welcome

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Speaker 1: my guest, Steve Saying, Director of the SAS China Institute. Steve,

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Speaker 1: welcome and thank you for joining me on News World.

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Speaker 2: Well, thank you for inviting me.

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Speaker 1: Describe a little bit the SOIS China Institute.

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Speaker 3: Well, the SOS China Institute used to be called a

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Speaker 3: School of Oriental and African Studies, and we are one

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Speaker 3: of the largest concentration of China specialist in a European university.

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Speaker 3: And we work on China without fear or favor. So

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Speaker 3: when the Chinese government or China as a whole does

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Speaker 3: something that we should appreciate, we say so. But if

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Speaker 3: it says something or does something which is not so good,

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Speaker 3: we will criticize it openly.

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Speaker 1: From your perspective, how do you think the Chinese see

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Speaker 1: the Middle East today?

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Speaker 3: Well, the Chinese government sees the Middle East US offering

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Speaker 3: good opportunities for China. We have to bear in minded

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Speaker 3: China today is not the China of fifteen years ago

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Speaker 3: or earlier. China today, under Sea Jimping's leadership has a

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Speaker 3: well developed golboat strategy, and that goboat ology is not,

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Speaker 3: on the one hand, simply competing with the United States

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Speaker 3: for global hagimony, but it is about establishing Chinese global

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Speaker 3: pre eminence, for which the United States undermining is global

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Speaker 3: standing and support from the international community would be helpful.

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Speaker 3: And from their perspective at the moment, the United States

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Speaker 3: is doing a very fine job for fielding Sugimpins global

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Speaker 3: strategy in the Middle East. It is alienating friends, it

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Speaker 3: is making the US appear as a bit of a

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Speaker 3: unreasonable hagimen.

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Speaker 1: From that perspective, how do you analyze the recent purging

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Speaker 1: of the Chinese military?

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Speaker 3: The purging of the military, I mean here we really

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Speaker 3: are talking about the purge of the single most senior

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Speaker 3: and important figure in the Chinese military, General Jiang Yo Shah.

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Speaker 3: Now General Jiang was not only the most senior officer

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Speaker 3: in uniform in the Chinese military, but it's also somebody

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Speaker 3: who had a strong personal and family connections with Sijimping.

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Speaker 3: So if any Chinese general could try to pursue a

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Speaker 3: path of modernizing the people's liberation army in the way

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Speaker 3: that he think is most appropriate, but not necessarily following

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Speaker 3: every single word of Sijimping. That would have been General

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Speaker 3: Jiang Yoshah, who has indeed long past retirement age and

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Speaker 3: was kept in office by Sjimpin by special arrangement, and

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Speaker 3: that I putish the user was exactly the reason why

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Speaker 3: he was being sacked, because he was not simply doing

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Speaker 3: everything Shijimpin has said to be done. She focused on

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Speaker 3: strengthening the political loyalty and party control over the military.

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Speaker 3: General Juan Yoshah did a bit more in terms of

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Speaker 3: promoting the professionalism of the military.

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Speaker 1: Was a design to consolidate Zijian beings unchallengeable power or

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Speaker 1: to send a signal about shaping the military in a

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Speaker 1: certain way.

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Speaker 3: Well, it's a bit of both. The problem with Xi Jinping,

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Speaker 3: a problem he created, is that in his last ten

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Speaker 3: years he has replaced collective leadership by his own strong

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Speaker 3: man rule. When you became the strong man leader, you

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Speaker 3: have to constantly remind others that you are in control

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Speaker 3: and in charge. So even people who were promoted by

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Speaker 3: him as his proteges will have to be purged in

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Speaker 3: this new paradigm. Whereas in his first ten years in office,

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Speaker 3: he did not purge one of his own protege at all. Now,

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Speaker 3: in terms of the strengthening of the PLA, Uji believes

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Speaker 3: that it is vitally important to make sure the POA

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Speaker 3: is first and foremost loyal to the party and to

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Speaker 3: him as supreme leader. That will give the military great

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Speaker 3: fighting capacity. But General John realized that moving forward, the

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Speaker 3: POA may well actually have to get into combat, for

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Speaker 3: which military professionalism and actual training and combat readiness is

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Speaker 3: more important than just political loyalty. Not saying that he

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Speaker 3: disregards the political loyalty, He's simply not put political loyalty

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Speaker 3: ahead of the actual combat capacity. And this is where

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Speaker 3: the problem comes in. But once you have somebody like

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Speaker 3: General Jian Yoshah being removed by su Jimpin for doing

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Speaker 3: what he thought was the right thing for the military,

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Speaker 3: I don't think you're going to find another general in

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Speaker 3: the POA who will attempt to do that moving forward.

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Speaker 3: They will simply say to s Jimpin, yes, sir, if

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Speaker 3: you want me to jump, my only question, sir is

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Speaker 3: how high, not whether jumping on this moment is going

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Speaker 3: to be right or whether it's going to bring the

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Speaker 3: ceiling down in the floor below.

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Speaker 1: Some people have suggested that Jujenping now has so consolidated

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Speaker 1: power that he may be the most powerful Chinese leader

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Speaker 1: since Manzi. Don't.

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Speaker 3: I think he is clearly the most powerful leader since Maljodome,

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Speaker 3: and I think She Jimping is aiming to be the

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Speaker 3: most powerful leader including from when Maljodome was in power.

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Speaker 3: He is not trying to imitate Maljodome. He is not

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Speaker 3: going to attempt a restoration of the Maljodome era. He

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Speaker 3: is creating, establishing and consolidating the sieging Pin era, which

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Speaker 3: he believes will be the greatest.

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Speaker 1: Ever, which means in part that he's much more dangerous

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Speaker 1: in the long run than now.

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Speaker 2: In the long run.

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Speaker 3: Yes, there is a global visioned that Si Jimping has

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Speaker 3: ambisiaised for China, and that vision is one of establishing

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Speaker 3: Chinese Globo, not regional pre eminence. And I use the

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Speaker 3: word pre eminence very carefully because he is not intending

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Speaker 3: to establish Chinese global hegemony in order to replace American

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Speaker 3: global hegemony. He has no intention of filling in the

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Speaker 3: shoes that America may willingly or unwillingly be forced to

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Speaker 3: the k He is creating a new pair of shoes

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Speaker 3: to replace the old pair of shoes, and it will

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Speaker 3: be designed by China at Chinese standards and at the

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Speaker 3: timing of China's choosing. But he does indicate that he

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Speaker 3: would expect this to be achieved when it reached the

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Speaker 3: point of the centenary of the People's Republic of China,

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Speaker 3: and therefore twenty forty nine or twenty fifty at the

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Speaker 3: absolute latest.

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Speaker 1: I think we in the West probably, even though we're

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Speaker 1: currently celebrating our two hundred and fiftieth anniversaries the country,

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Speaker 1: we probably underestimate how important psychologically that date is in

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Speaker 1: commemorating the consolidation of China under the Communist and that

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Speaker 1: setting goals for that date sort of supercharges them emotionally.

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Speaker 2: Oh, I think you're right.

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Speaker 3: It is absolutely important to Schuting. It will not necessarily

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Speaker 3: be so important to the Communist Party, say, Oh, I

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Speaker 3: mean they would always wanted it to be a big celebration.

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Speaker 3: But Sujin Pink had defined that as the day when

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Speaker 3: his China Dream of National rejuvenations needs to be achieved,

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Speaker 3: and his idea of the China Dream of National rejuvenation.

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Speaker 3: If I may borrow from your president's language, is to

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Speaker 3: make China great again.

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Speaker 2: And the mad China great again.

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Speaker 3: Is about recreating what Sugin Pink believed was the rifle

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Speaker 3: and best time in human history. And he believed the

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Speaker 3: best time in human history was when China was number

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Speaker 3: one in the world, so powerful, so rich, so advanced,

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Speaker 3: so civilized, that every other nations would warrant territory, choose

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Speaker 3: to defer to China, respect China, and embrace Chinese leadership.

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Speaker 3: And that's what he meant, that China will not need

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Speaker 3: to exercise hegemony, but China's pre eminence will simply be embraced. Now,

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Speaker 3: of course that's very bad history. But since eu Jimpin

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Speaker 3: has also banned any other version of history than the

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Speaker 3: Communist Party's version of history in China since twenty thirteen,

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Speaker 3: what he says is now there for history in China.

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Speaker 1: I think, as seen for example, by Vietnam, Chinese pre

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Speaker 1: eminence may not be that good ideal.

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Speaker 3: Absolutely, and in fact, you will have many other countries

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Speaker 3: in the vicinity of China who would rather contest this

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Speaker 3: ew Jimpin version of Chinese global pre eminence historically, because

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Speaker 3: the history that others would remember would be that when

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Speaker 3: China was number one, China behaved exactly the same as

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Speaker 3: the Roman Empire, or the Persian Empire, or the Ottoman

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Speaker 3: Empire in this hey days, or for that matter, the

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Speaker 3: British Empire in the modern era, except that when it

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Speaker 3: comes down to the narrative from Beijing, they make a

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Speaker 3: clear distinction. When it's being practiced by China. By definition,

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Speaker 3: they do it in quotation marks the kingly way, the civilized, gentlemanly,

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Speaker 3: non hegemonic way, whereas if the same thing is being

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Speaker 3: practiced by any other empire, then it was a tyrannical hegemony.

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Speaker 3: But you could be doing exactly the same thing.

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Speaker 1: There's this mythology of the peaceful China, but in fact,

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Speaker 1: if you watch the gradual growth of the Han, they're

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Speaker 1: gradually absorbing all sorts of people around their periphery.

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Speaker 3: Well indeed, I mean chi Jinpings talks about China's five

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Speaker 3: thousand years of history, where China evolved from a principality

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Speaker 3: in the Yellow River basins to a continental size empire,

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Speaker 3: and he said China had never invaded anybody. Ever, that

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Speaker 3: there's not one single imperist gene in the Chinese jin

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Speaker 3: pool well, a lot of people who are now living

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Speaker 3: in the boundaries of the POC may disagree if they

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Speaker 3: were allowed to do so. And even the concept of

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Speaker 3: Hahn itself was a very mixed one because if you

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Speaker 3: look at the Terracotta Army, you would see that the

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Speaker 3: soldiers in the Terracotta Army have very different features. Some

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Speaker 3: of them have features that are very Oriental looking, some

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Speaker 3: of them have features us what a Caucasian looking. And

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Speaker 3: so even in that conceptualization, when China was being bought

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Speaker 3: together in the First Empire and the first Emperor of Chin,

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Speaker 3: the Chin army itself was hosmopolitan rather than one single

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Speaker 3: ethnic group.

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Speaker 1: And then we're talking about two hundred BC. There's a

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Speaker 1: long tradition here. It's important for people to realize that

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Speaker 1: Jijien Ping in fact makes up the history that is

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Speaker 1: appropriate for what he wants to.

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Speaker 3: Do, absolutely, and the history is there to in that language,

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Speaker 3: serve the people who are the people.

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Speaker 2: The party represents the people.

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Speaker 1: So from that perspective, how do you think Jijien Ping

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Speaker 1: and his team think about the Middle East.

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Speaker 3: Well, the Middle East matters to China because the Middle

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Speaker 3: East is an important soul of energy security for China,

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Speaker 3: which still really matters. The Middle East is an area

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Speaker 3: which historically has tied the United States down. The Middle

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Speaker 3: East is an endless source of conflict and trouble which

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Speaker 3: will make whichever country happened to be the global hegimen

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Speaker 3: a lot of heaving. The Middle e is part of

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Speaker 3: the Global South, and in Sijinpin's conceptualization of the new

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Speaker 3: world order, the global South is very very very important. Indeed,

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Speaker 3: and because Sijipink talks about in his words the internationalization

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Speaker 3: of international relations and the construction of this conceptualizations is

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Speaker 3: that the global South constitutes a clear, indeed overwhelming majority

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Speaker 3: of the world's population and the same of member states

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Speaker 3: of the United Nations. And with China being forever i

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Speaker 3: think his word forever a part of the developing world.

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Speaker 3: Therefore the global South, China is the natural leader. China

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Speaker 3: represents the interests of the global South. Therefore, the international system,

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Speaker 3: including the UN, needs to be democratized and put not

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Speaker 3: the interests of the elitist, small democratic West first, but

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Speaker 3: put the interests of the overwhelming majority global South, as

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Speaker 3: represented by China first. Then you have a better world.

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Speaker 3: And that is how that transformation is meant to happen

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Speaker 3: not by creating a new world order to replace the

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Speaker 3: existing one, but by capturing the existing one to make

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Speaker 3: it into something different. But that can only be done

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Speaker 3: with the support of the global South, and the Middle

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Speaker 3: East is an important part of.

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Speaker 1: It, given that where is the Iran for the and

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Speaker 1: decision things thinking in his approach.

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Speaker 3: Well, Iran has been an important comprehensive strategic partner for China,

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Speaker 3: and China was able to use its relationship with Iran

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Speaker 3: not only for strengthening energy security, but also for achieving

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Speaker 3: a significant diplomatic success when China bookered a rapach Morn

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Speaker 3: between Saudi Arabia and Iran before the Gaza War started

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Speaker 3: and since the Gaza War, Iran was able to cause

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Speaker 3: a lot of disruptions which cast a negative light on

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Speaker 3: the United States for supporting Israel very very closely, and

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Speaker 3: therefore strengthened China's standing in the Middle East. That China

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Speaker 3: is projecting that China is there without private self interest

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Speaker 3: but supporting the oppressed people against the Israeli aggressions back

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Speaker 3: up by American hegemony. That's the kind of narrative they

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Speaker 3: are able to put forward. And if you're looking at

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Speaker 3: people in the region. The Chinese narrative does have some attractions.

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Speaker 1: Does President Trump's decision to attack Iran once again undermine

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Speaker 1: the efforts of the Abrahamic Accords in the effort to

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Speaker 1: create a common front among the Arab countries.

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Speaker 3: President Trump's attack on Iran from the Chinese perspective, poses

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Speaker 3: some problems, serious problems, but also create a huge amount

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Speaker 3: of advantages to China. The first thing that would present

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Speaker 3: is that if the Western Alliance criticized Russia for the

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Speaker 3: war in Ukraine, how can the Western Alliance not criticize

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Speaker 3: the United States for using force against Iran? Because there

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Speaker 3: is no more threat posed by Iran to the US

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Speaker 3: directly immediately prior to the conflict than there was posed

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Speaker 3: by Ukraine to Russia. So that was a helpful thing

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Speaker 3: for them, And the very substantial disruption of the global

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Speaker 3: economy will be pinned on the United States because the

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Speaker 3: United States started the war, China didn't do it, And

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Speaker 3: the Chinese, before the conflicts started earlier this year, was

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Speaker 3: working very hard to buy as much oil as they

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Speaker 3: could to increase the strategic oil reserve because they were

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Speaker 3: expecting that the US might well used force against Iran,

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Speaker 3: so they are preparing for it, and it takes them

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Speaker 3: a few months before they will really feel the economic pinch.

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Speaker 3: But in the meantime, Western economies and economies in the

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Speaker 3: Global South, which are not prepared for the war are suffering,

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Speaker 3: and they will be blaming the United States for it.

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Speaker 1: Is China comfortable with the idea that they too may

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Speaker 1: be caught up. Look at the strait of hormones, which

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Speaker 1: is the current big topic. It strikes me, correct me

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Speaker 1: if I'm wrong, but the one set of tankers that

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Speaker 1: have been getting through or prying oil to China.

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Speaker 3: The Chinese are not completely comfortable with that at the moment.

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Speaker 3: The reasons why I think the Chinese are not completely

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Speaker 3: comfortable with that at the moment is that it looks

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Speaker 3: like that the Uranians have delegated their powers to attack

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Speaker 3: shipping across the straight up hormos to local commanders. That

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Speaker 3: the central command and control systems of the Uranian armed

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Speaker 3: forces has not yet been fully restored to good function functionality,

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Speaker 3: so until that is being delivered, the Chinese cannot be

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Speaker 3: sure that the local Uranian commanders will be able to

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Speaker 3: differentiate a Chinese ship from a non Chinese ship and

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Speaker 3: guarantee this absolute safety of a Chinese ship sailing through

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Speaker 3: the strike of Hormus. But when Uran get back to

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Speaker 3: a situation where that command control is fully re established,

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Speaker 3: then the Chinese will feel much more comfortable that the

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Speaker 3: Uranian partners would respect Chinese shipping. And after all, a

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Speaker 3: lot of the Chinese shipping going through the straight of

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Speaker 3: Hormus are going to Uranian ports, buying Ranian oils and

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Speaker 3: sending them back to China, which is a mutually beneficial thing.

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Speaker 1: From their standpoint. How big a problem would it be

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Speaker 1: if the United States did in fact succeed in replacing

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Speaker 1: the current dictatorship.

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Speaker 3: Now, if the Americans can replace the existing Uranian regime

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Speaker 3: with a new regime that is stable and an American

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Speaker 3: puppet regime, they would not be very happy about it

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Speaker 3: in the overall aggregate, But then there would be the

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Speaker 3: advantage that stability and order to the international economic order

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Speaker 3: would be restored, so it was not terrible result. But

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Speaker 3: I don't think the Chinese are calculating on that basis.

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Speaker 3: I think think the Chinese see it as a realistic

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Speaker 3: pautback that the United States will be able to replace

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Speaker 3: the Uranian regime, because all that the Uranian regim needs

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Speaker 3: to do is to survive, and unless Americans are prepared

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Speaker 3: to put in ground troops in substantial numbers, it is

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Speaker 3: very unlikely that the United States can deliver a regime change,

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Speaker 3: and the Chinese would certainly be happy to do what

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Speaker 3: the Uranian friends asked them to do to support the

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Speaker 3: regime to survive in this crisis.

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Speaker 1: How much of a danger is there that by forcing

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Speaker 1: American combat power to focus so strongly on the Persian

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Speaker 1: Gulf and on the Iranian regime, that we actually create

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Speaker 1: a deeper imbalances around Taiwan and almost create an opportunity

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Speaker 1: for the Chinese communist regime because in fact, we don't

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Speaker 1: have the capacity to project power in both places simultaneously.

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Speaker 3: Well, the Chinese will be watching that very very carefully,

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Speaker 3: and they are certainly pondering that very question. And I

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Speaker 3: think the first sign that the Chinese are seeing that

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Speaker 3: effect in the Indo Pacific Command for the United States

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Speaker 3: is when the news came out I think yesterday or

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Speaker 3: the day before that America may well be re deploying

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Speaker 3: the Patriot and that batteries from South Korea to the

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Speaker 3: Middle East and that's an indication that the United States

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Speaker 3: are redeploying important assets from the Indo Pacific Command away

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Speaker 3: from that command to the Sancom operational areas. But will

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Speaker 3: that therefore result in China invading Taiwan. I don't think so.

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Speaker 2: Now.

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Speaker 3: I don't think so because we have to understand where

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Speaker 3: China is coming from, what China's plans are. Si Jimping

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Speaker 3: has a plan for Taiwan. He absolutely intends to take

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Speaker 3: Taiwan by force if necessary, which is probably something he

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Speaker 3: recognized will be needed. But then he also needs to

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Speaker 3: be sure that the POA is ready. Now, the fact

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Speaker 3: that at the moment the United States is not in

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Speaker 3: a good place to defense Taiwan because of the diversion

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Speaker 3: in Iran and the shortage of ammunitions is not a

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Speaker 3: guarantee of Chinese success unless the POA is ready. And

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Speaker 3: what we have seen in thirteen years of Jimping in

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Speaker 3: power is that he is a looculated risk ticker. He's

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Speaker 3: very careful. He takes risks, but very carefully. He has

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Speaker 3: not ever been reckless at any point in the last

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Speaker 3: thirteen years. And going to war over Taiwan, assuming that

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Speaker 3: the Americans are unable to interfere is reckless because that's

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Speaker 3: not a guarantee of a easy, quick victory. Across Taiwan

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Speaker 3: one of the most difficult operations, and Xi Jimpin has

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Speaker 3: a much longer term thing for Taiwan to be taken

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Speaker 3: back than it has to be done in the next

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Speaker 3: three years.

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Speaker 1: The German Army could not figure out how to cross

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Speaker 1: twenty one miles the Taiwan Straits one hundred and forty.

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Speaker 1: That's actually a big problem, not a small one.

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Speaker 3: And the Strait of Taiwan is one of the most

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Speaker 3: treacherous waters to cross. And you mentioned that the German

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Speaker 3: Army couldn't actually cross the English Channel. But we even

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Speaker 3: have a problem of the much more powerful airlines powers

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Speaker 3: having to prepare for two years before they could do

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Speaker 3: the Norman dy landings. And continental Europe had enormous number

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Speaker 3: of ideal landing bitches. Taiwan had a dozen or last

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Speaker 3: beaches where any kind of landing could be done, and

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Speaker 3: they are short, they are small. They are beaches that

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Speaker 3: faces steep cleeve with very short distance, so they are

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Speaker 3: much more difficult amphibian operations to begin with. And that's

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Speaker 3: why I think the Chinese would be very careful. They

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Speaker 3: have only very recently built up the kind of capability

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Speaker 3: that they could launch amphibian attacks on Taiwan. They have

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Speaker 3: not trained for them. They have not there or prepare

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Speaker 3: for them. If they draw the lessons that the Americans

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Speaker 3: can run out of ammunition so quickly in Iran, and

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Speaker 3: they will also be realizing that, in fact, they can

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Speaker 3: be rending out of ammunition themselves too, because your smart

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Speaker 3: weapons need to have a very large stop before you

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Speaker 3: can actually start using them liberally for an operation like

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Speaker 3: that that you can't afford to lose.

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Speaker 1: When you look at sophisticated systems like the Patriot, they're

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Speaker 1: really expensive and they take a long time to build,

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Speaker 1: and it's not like you can churn them out every

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Speaker 1: half hour.

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Speaker 3: Well, it's not like the Second World War paradigm any longer.

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Speaker 3: Nobody is today able to build a warship a day

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Speaker 3: and one hundred aircraft a week in shorter time space,

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Speaker 3: which the United States wartime economy in the Second World

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Speaker 3: was able to do. Nobody can do that any longer

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Speaker 3: because those weapons have become so complicated, so sophisticated, and

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Speaker 3: therefore time consuming to get them right.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that part has been at least for me,

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Speaker 1: has been a surprise how relatively fast you use up

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Speaker 1: all of your munitions.

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Speaker 3: Yes, I'm not a military expert, but it would seems

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Speaker 3: to me that it's partly because the pre war planning

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Speaker 3: was actually the old paradigm, because we have in the

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Speaker 3: West the experience of the Ukraine War, and a lot

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Speaker 3: of the planning should have taken into a county Ukrainian experience,

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Speaker 3: and a lot of your Patriot and other expensive anti

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Speaker 3: air missiles would not need to have been used by

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Speaker 3: the Gulf States or Israel or the United States in

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Speaker 3: the Middle East to take out Uranian drones.

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Speaker 2: They could have.

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Speaker 3: Been taken out by anti drones that a country like

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Speaker 3: Ukraine has managed to produce and feel.

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Speaker 2: And if we have.

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Speaker 3: Talked to the Ukrainians, and if we have basically told

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Speaker 3: the Ukrainians we supplied you with your missiles, share your

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Speaker 3: technology with us about the anti jones before we do

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Speaker 3: what we need to do, I think Ukrainians upset, Thank

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Speaker 3: you will help. How can we help.

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Speaker 1: It's been fascinating to watch, particularly the drone warfare, how

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Speaker 1: rapidly it's evolved and how different the world is becoming.

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Speaker 1: Absolutely I'm really glad that you take time to talk

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Speaker 1: with us, because I think you bring a different perspective

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Speaker 1: and much deeper understanding of jijianping. Steve Owner, thank you

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Speaker 1: for joining me and our listeners can follow the work

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Speaker 1: you're doing at SOS China Institute by visiting your website

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Speaker 1: at SOAS dot ac dot UK. You clearly are studying

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Speaker 1: this stuff all the time, and you have I think

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Speaker 1: a very real insight into the nature's usunping and into

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Speaker 1: the nature of the challenge and frankly some of the

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Speaker 1: shortfalls on the American side, not just in weapons, but

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Speaker 1: in thinking strategically. So I think you are a real

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Speaker 1: asset to US, US meaning the Western world, not just

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Speaker 1: in the United States. And I'm grateful for the time you

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Speaker 1: put into this well.

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Speaker 2: Thank you very much, it's been a great session.

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Speaker 1: Thank you to my guest, Steve Sang. Newt World is

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Speaker 1: produced by ginger Street sixty and iHeartMedia. Our executive producer

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00:30:36,120 --> 00:30:40,800
Speaker 1: is Guarnsey Sloan. Our researcher is Rachel Peterson. The artwork

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Speaker 1: for the show Who's Creative by Steve Penley. Special thanks

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Speaker 1: to the team at Gingerstree sixty. If you've been enjoying

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Speaker 1: review so others can learn what it's all about. Join

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