WEBVTT - Why Is Trump Threatening Military Action In Nigeria? 0:00:02.480 --> 0:00:10.320 Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. President Trump has threatened 0:00:10.400 --> 0:00:14.160 Nigeria with military action to tackle what he's claiming is 0:00:14.240 --> 0:00:16.360 targeted attacks on Christians. 0:00:16.960 --> 0:00:22.560 They're killing record numbers of Christians in Nigeria and they 0:00:22.600 --> 0:00:23.880 have other countries very bad. 0:00:23.960 --> 0:00:24.280 Also. 0:00:24.920 --> 0:00:27.840 You know that that part of the world they killing 0:00:27.920 --> 0:00:31.360 the Christians and killing them in very large numbers. Not 0:00:31.400 --> 0:00:32.520 gonna allow that to happen. 0:00:33.159 --> 0:00:36.760 Nigeria's government has said the claims do not reflect reality, 0:00:37.200 --> 0:00:40.960 as Nigerian assets tumbled in the aftermath of Trump's threats. 0:00:41.320 --> 0:00:48.120 It's impossible for there to be a religious persecution that 0:00:48.320 --> 0:00:52.640 can be supported in any way, shape or formed by 0:00:52.720 --> 0:00:56.000 the government of Nigeria at any level. 0:00:56.240 --> 0:01:00.680 On today's podcast, we're discussing why Trump is focusing on Nigeria, 0:01:01.080 --> 0:01:04.240 where the false idea of a genocide against Christians is 0:01:04.280 --> 0:01:08.280 coming from, and why Nigeria might have to think carefully 0:01:08.480 --> 0:01:14.640 about how to respond. I'm Jennifer's Abasaja and this is 0:01:14.720 --> 0:01:18.240 the Next Africa Podcast, bringing you one story each week 0:01:18.280 --> 0:01:21.160 from the continent, driving the future of global growth with 0:01:21.240 --> 0:01:25.760 the context only Bloomberg can provide. And joining me this 0:01:25.800 --> 0:01:29.560 week is Neil Munchi Bloomberg's deputy Managing editor for the 0:01:29.600 --> 0:01:32.840 Middle East and Africa and are a Buja based reporter 0:01:33.240 --> 0:01:36.680 Nduka or Jinmo. Thank you both for joining us this week. 0:01:36.920 --> 0:01:40.080 Appreciate you both being here. And Duka, let's start with 0:01:40.120 --> 0:01:42.600 you because there's quite a bit to unpack with the story. 0:01:43.120 --> 0:01:44.560 But we heard earlier. 0:01:44.240 --> 0:01:47.080 Those comments from President Trump on Air Force One over 0:01:47.080 --> 0:01:49.760 the weekend. We'll talk shortly about where some of those 0:01:49.760 --> 0:01:52.040 claims that he's making are coming from. But let's just 0:01:52.120 --> 0:01:55.600 start with what the President actually said, what the action 0:01:55.800 --> 0:01:58.440 is that he's threatening, and whether or not we've gotten 0:01:58.480 --> 0:02:01.160 any indication that he's going to follow through on this. 0:02:01.360 --> 0:02:03.000 Can you can you break that down for us? 0:02:04.440 --> 0:02:07.600 Yeah, let let's start from Friday. Then Trump posted on 0:02:07.680 --> 0:02:12.240 the Truth social he's on platform, that thousands of Christians 0:02:12.280 --> 0:02:15.600 have been killed in Nigeria, and then he blamed the 0:02:15.680 --> 0:02:20.560 radical Islamistic for being responsible for that mass mother then 0:02:20.600 --> 0:02:23.359 he went further, and that's simplest to designate Nigeria a 0:02:23.440 --> 0:02:27.800 country of Particular Consent, which is usually reserved for countries 0:02:27.840 --> 0:02:33.920 that show clear and consistent patterns of religious discrimination or persecution. 0:02:34.760 --> 0:02:38.800 On Saturday, Trump then went further and directing the Department 0:02:38.840 --> 0:02:43.480 of War, so prepare for possible military action in Nigeria. 0:02:43.919 --> 0:02:47.040 He studied with Nigera government continue to allow the clean 0:02:47.080 --> 0:02:50.960 of Christians, the US will immediately stop all aid and 0:02:51.040 --> 0:02:54.200 assistance of Nigeria and me very well to use his 0:02:54.280 --> 0:02:57.720 own words, now go into that. Now these based country 0:02:58.000 --> 0:03:02.240 cons are blazing. Then on Sunday, he was asked, you know, 0:03:02.280 --> 0:03:05.280 whether he might callin st rights or sending ground troops, 0:03:05.560 --> 0:03:08.400 and he said a lot of things. At a moment, 0:03:09.080 --> 0:03:13.760 we haven't seen any movements to indicate that any of 0:03:13.919 --> 0:03:16.720 that is happening. He just still feels like it's the 0:03:16.800 --> 0:03:20.840 usual Trump retoric. He hasn't really escalated to the points 0:03:20.880 --> 0:03:24.560 where he's sending either the ground troops is talked about, 0:03:25.240 --> 0:03:28.959 or you know, sending in any carriers into the West 0:03:29.000 --> 0:03:32.760 African coast. So not in so fine in terms of 0:03:32.800 --> 0:03:37.320 the military action, just talk from Trump and from niger government, 0:03:37.360 --> 0:03:38.360 which we'll get into later. 0:03:38.680 --> 0:03:41.000 And the timing of this is quite interesting, of course, 0:03:41.080 --> 0:03:43.680 because we just saw the president during his Asia trip. 0:03:43.960 --> 0:03:46.040 Now he starts to make these claims. Let's dig into 0:03:46.040 --> 0:03:48.520 the claims a bit. Neil, if you can jump in here, 0:03:48.840 --> 0:03:51.880 what do you make of the timing of this and 0:03:51.920 --> 0:03:54.920 why President Trump is starting to focus on Nigeria now. 0:03:55.560 --> 0:03:58.560 In a sense, it is sort of a matter of time, right. 0:03:58.600 --> 0:04:03.200 So this kind of conspiracy theory around either persecution of 0:04:03.280 --> 0:04:07.880 Christians in Nigeria or a genocide against Christians in Nigeria 0:04:07.920 --> 0:04:13.160 has been circulated right wing Western circles and evangelical circles 0:04:13.200 --> 0:04:16.840 for years, and you know, Trump dipped into it a 0:04:16.880 --> 0:04:21.600 little bit in his first term when he similarly declared 0:04:21.680 --> 0:04:25.880 Nigeria a country of particular concern by an administration pulled 0:04:25.880 --> 0:04:28.799 them off that list. But in recent months you've seen 0:04:29.040 --> 0:04:32.279 it kind of gaining steam. So you know, Senator Ted 0:04:32.360 --> 0:04:37.200 Cruz A. Trump Bali introduced a bill to protect Nigerian Christians. 0:04:38.160 --> 0:04:41.400 There was a sort of lesser known Republican congressman who 0:04:41.400 --> 0:04:44.599 did something similar, and you've heard more and more chatter 0:04:44.680 --> 0:04:46.400 about this, and so in a way, it was kind 0:04:46.440 --> 0:04:49.240 of the way Trump often does, kind of pick up 0:04:49.320 --> 0:04:53.000 on conspiracy theories that are floating among his base and 0:04:53.040 --> 0:04:56.200 then elevates them. That seems to be what happened here, 0:04:56.560 --> 0:04:59.279 and you can see it. It's broken out of the 0:04:59.360 --> 0:05:03.280 kind of traditional right wing spheres. In the case of 0:05:03.320 --> 0:05:05.839 say the comedian Bill Maher who has a show on 0:05:06.600 --> 0:05:08.880 HBO every week, and I think we have a clip 0:05:09.760 --> 0:05:11.000 of him talking about it too. 0:05:11.480 --> 0:05:14.120 If you don't know what's going on in Nigeria, your 0:05:14.279 --> 0:05:18.799 media sources suck. You are in a bubble. And again 0:05:19.279 --> 0:05:22.440 I'm not a Christian, but they are systematically killing the 0:05:22.520 --> 0:05:25.840 Christians in Nigeria. They've killed over one hundred thousand since 0:05:25.839 --> 0:05:28.960 two thousand and nine. They've burned eighteen thousand churches. These 0:05:29.040 --> 0:05:32.240 are their Islamis Bokoha rama. They are literally attempting to 0:05:32.360 --> 0:05:36.440 wipe out the Christian population of an entire country. Where 0:05:36.440 --> 0:05:37.760 are the kids protesting this? 0:05:38.480 --> 0:05:41.640 So Bill Maher talking about this on his HBO show. 0:05:41.920 --> 0:05:45.080 What do we know about the actual picture in Nigeria 0:05:45.360 --> 0:05:46.520 on the ground there, Neil? 0:05:46.960 --> 0:05:49.080 First off, you know in that clip he says they're 0:05:49.160 --> 0:05:53.120 trying to systematically wipe out the entire Christian population of Nigeria. 0:05:53.480 --> 0:05:57.040 That's just absolutely, factually inaccurate. You know, Nigeria is a 0:05:57.080 --> 0:05:59.640 country of two hundred and thirty million people. It is 0:05:59.640 --> 0:06:03.840 split roughly evenly between Christians and Muslims. It is also 0:06:03.839 --> 0:06:08.080 a country that has been racked by violence for decades 0:06:08.720 --> 0:06:14.520 that impacts all communities and all people across Nigeria. The 0:06:14.520 --> 0:06:17.119 way this violence has manifested over the last fifteen years 0:06:17.160 --> 0:06:19.800 is kind of falls into a few buckets. One is 0:06:20.360 --> 0:06:24.680 Jihadis and Islamists in the northeast, Ookalham being the most 0:06:24.680 --> 0:06:31.719 famous one, attacking villages, army convoys, churches and Muslims too. 0:06:32.320 --> 0:06:36.320 In the northwest it's armed gangs and bandits who are 0:06:36.440 --> 0:06:40.800 criminals who have kidnapped and massacred thousands over the past 0:06:41.360 --> 0:06:43.600 ten years. And then in the middle of the country 0:06:43.640 --> 0:06:49.760 you have long running conflict between largely sedentary and Christian 0:06:49.960 --> 0:06:56.000 farmers and nomadic cattle herders who are mostly Muslims. And 0:06:56.800 --> 0:07:01.160 there is where you see it shade most into religious violence. 0:07:01.400 --> 0:07:04.159 But again most of the violence of the country is 0:07:04.160 --> 0:07:07.840 concentrated in the north, which is prenominantly Muslim, So just 0:07:07.920 --> 0:07:11.720 kind of based on that, the proportion of victims, it's 0:07:11.800 --> 0:07:13.880 higher in the Muslim community than it is in the 0:07:13.960 --> 0:07:17.120 Christian community. But that is all to say that violence 0:07:17.120 --> 0:07:21.400 impacts everyone in Nigeria and it is non denominational. As 0:07:21.600 --> 0:07:25.600 the bokalhorm phenomenon and the kind of Jihadis phenomenon has 0:07:25.640 --> 0:07:31.760 scaled back, the armed gang's bandits riding around on motorcycles 0:07:31.760 --> 0:07:35.640 with AK forty sevens ramped up and I think it 0:07:35.640 --> 0:07:38.360 should still be true today. But for a long period, 0:07:38.400 --> 0:07:42.240 we're responsible for much more violence in the country than 0:07:42.920 --> 0:07:47.840 Jihadis or Islamists. So you know, in these groups are 0:07:49.000 --> 0:07:52.040 groups of guys with guns and motorcycles who live in 0:07:52.040 --> 0:07:58.320 the forest and attack villages, mostly in the Muslim North, 0:07:58.640 --> 0:08:02.080 massacre and kidnap for and some across the country. So 0:08:02.800 --> 0:08:05.720 that kind of puts it in perspective. It's as if 0:08:05.760 --> 0:08:08.119 the folks were saying Boco Haraam's killing one hundred thousand 0:08:08.200 --> 0:08:11.160 Christians across the country are living in a world that 0:08:11.720 --> 0:08:15.400 kind of Bocohran wished existed fifteen years ago, that they 0:08:15.400 --> 0:08:17.920 were able to have done that, But that is what happened. 0:08:18.160 --> 0:08:19.320 Stick with me, both of you. 0:08:19.400 --> 0:08:21.280 When we come back, we'll talk about what the reaction 0:08:21.440 --> 0:08:23.760 has been to some of the comments President Trump has 0:08:23.760 --> 0:08:27.120 made and what we're likely to see moving forward from 0:08:27.120 --> 0:08:29.600 the US president but also from the Nigerian government. 0:08:34.679 --> 0:08:35.600 Welcome back today. 0:08:35.640 --> 0:08:38.960 We're looking at President Trump's threat to deploy the military 0:08:39.000 --> 0:08:43.479 to Nigeria to tackle what he's called, without evidence, systemic 0:08:43.559 --> 0:08:48.640 attacks on Christians on Nigeria. Nduka or Jinmo and also 0:08:48.679 --> 0:08:52.200 Neil Munchi are joining us this week. So Nduka, what 0:08:52.320 --> 0:08:54.640 have we heard from the Nigerian government so far? 0:08:55.440 --> 0:09:01.040 Those in statements from President boat Sin and he basically said, look, 0:09:01.200 --> 0:09:06.400 Nigeria is a country that guarantees the religious liberty of citizens, 0:09:06.480 --> 0:09:09.280 you know, Christians, we are not being persecuted and the 0:09:09.400 --> 0:09:12.640 many points that Christians and Muslims you know, have been 0:09:12.679 --> 0:09:16.319 targeted by these extremist groups, you know, by these armed 0:09:16.480 --> 0:09:21.560 gangs in Nigeria and those sparing the war across religious lines. 0:09:21.640 --> 0:09:24.400 I thought it was a very measured response. I thought 0:09:24.559 --> 0:09:29.080 they really falling through the trap of going going with Trump, 0:09:29.120 --> 0:09:33.480 you know, almost marching fire with fire, because Nigeria still 0:09:33.600 --> 0:09:36.240 needs to kind of support that the US can providing 0:09:36.320 --> 0:09:40.040 terms of providing military equipment, in terms of providing aid, 0:09:40.200 --> 0:09:42.840 in terms of providing the kind of economic support that 0:09:42.880 --> 0:09:46.520 you need to really keep the Goldment's reforms going. So 0:09:46.679 --> 0:09:49.440 I thought it was a measured, measured response by the governments. 0:09:49.559 --> 0:09:54.120 We've heard that there are shadowed talks between Nigeria's foreign 0:09:54.160 --> 0:09:58.040 minister and officials in Washington. The fermis that you know 0:09:58.120 --> 0:10:01.080 told me that two weeks ago that they are constantly 0:10:01.240 --> 0:10:05.000 talking with officials in Washington, and that's the only same pitch. 0:10:05.200 --> 0:10:09.000 But that was before from me those statements. Anyway, things 0:10:09.080 --> 0:10:11.520 might have changed a little bit. But the impression I 0:10:11.520 --> 0:10:13.800 got from speaking on the foreign means that was that 0:10:13.840 --> 0:10:15.920 there are talks on going between both. 0:10:15.760 --> 0:10:20.640 Sides, and some people are making the comparison to President 0:10:20.679 --> 0:10:25.760 Trump's allegations about South Africa and what he said about 0:10:25.920 --> 0:10:29.840 white africaner farmers and potentially sort of the tussle that 0:10:29.880 --> 0:10:33.600 we saw between President Ramaposa and President Trump. Eventually Neil, 0:10:34.280 --> 0:10:36.520 what's the risk here if we take a look at 0:10:36.520 --> 0:10:39.880 President Tinubu's response, as Nduka just pointed out, quite measured. 0:10:40.320 --> 0:10:42.720 What is the risk here though, especially if we look 0:10:42.760 --> 0:10:46.120 at the current situation that he's dealing with domestically. 0:10:46.880 --> 0:10:49.080 Yeah, I think, you know, to that point, the measured 0:10:49.120 --> 0:10:51.880 response is kind of the only play with Trump, because 0:10:51.880 --> 0:10:54.640 he's shown, you know, for a long time that he 0:10:54.679 --> 0:10:56.880 doesn't back down from a claim once he's made it, 0:10:56.920 --> 0:11:01.040 no matter what evidence is shown to refute it. So 0:11:01.679 --> 0:11:04.560 the example of South Africa, where he claims there's a 0:11:04.600 --> 0:11:08.760 genocide against white people against all the available evidence, is 0:11:08.840 --> 0:11:11.839 kind of exactly the situation Nigeria is finding itself in now, 0:11:12.440 --> 0:11:15.120 and it's going to be tricky, and I don't think 0:11:15.200 --> 0:11:18.560 South Africa has fully figured this out yet, and you know, 0:11:18.640 --> 0:11:23.959 we're many months in to their situation. To placate Trump, 0:11:24.280 --> 0:11:27.000 communicate to your people and the world that this is 0:11:27.240 --> 0:11:31.560 not true, and maintain relations in a way that Trump 0:11:31.600 --> 0:11:35.680 is able to save face and probably continue to repeat 0:11:35.679 --> 0:11:37.559 these false claims. I don't think it's going to be 0:11:37.600 --> 0:11:40.280 easy for them to navigate, but I think this metric 0:11:40.320 --> 0:11:42.080 response is kind of the only way to do it. 0:11:42.480 --> 0:11:47.040 And I think, you know, Tanubu's pretty well placed to 0:11:47.120 --> 0:11:52.080 talk about religious pluralism in Nigeria because he's a Muslim 0:11:52.440 --> 0:11:56.160 who was governor of Lago State in the predominantly Christian South. 0:11:56.280 --> 0:11:59.560 He's married to a Christian woman who is also a pastor. 0:12:00.160 --> 0:12:05.599 You know, for all his faults in tackling insecurity in Nigeria, 0:12:05.679 --> 0:12:08.560 he kind of embodies the religious pluralism in many ways. 0:12:09.320 --> 0:12:12.280 That's that's really fascinating. So then what what do we 0:12:12.360 --> 0:12:15.160 watch out for now? As you mentioned, South Africa is 0:12:15.160 --> 0:12:17.959 still trying to figure it out, and maybe you can 0:12:18.200 --> 0:12:20.920 start for us. What what are you paying close attention to. 0:12:21.400 --> 0:12:25.800 Well, and if for the escalations, we've seen meetings. Yesterday 0:12:25.880 --> 0:12:29.400 the Nine Giant president had the cabinet meetings and that 0:12:29.559 --> 0:12:34.800 was followed viola meeting by his national security advisor and 0:12:35.040 --> 0:12:38.280 the service chiefs that he had just recently appointed. I 0:12:38.280 --> 0:12:43.040 wouldn't necessarily conside that that's a response to trom sweatrics. Well, 0:12:43.040 --> 0:12:45.640 we'll be looking for any any for the escalations. If 0:12:45.679 --> 0:12:50.240 perhaps the US decides to begin moving military assets towards 0:12:50.320 --> 0:12:54.800 the West African coast, then that will be a pointing 0:12:54.840 --> 0:12:56.760 plan when we can then sy a where this is 0:12:57.000 --> 0:12:59.800 really getting serials. I do not think we'll get to 0:12:59.840 --> 0:13:02.600 that points. I think it's it's Trump's rhetorics, and I 0:13:02.640 --> 0:13:06.720 think that in the transactional nature of politics and Washington 0:13:06.840 --> 0:13:09.920 these days, there can be some trade off between the 0:13:10.000 --> 0:13:13.679 nine drug government in and and folks in Washington. Nigeria 0:13:13.840 --> 0:13:16.400 refused US application to take in some of the illegal 0:13:16.720 --> 0:13:18.680 my Grand's control is going to send that would be 0:13:18.679 --> 0:13:22.720 back on the cards now. Nadia has some minerals that 0:13:22.720 --> 0:13:25.400 that Trump might be eyeing. So these are things that 0:13:26.000 --> 0:13:28.959 really used to to have peace, do not Trump. But 0:13:29.000 --> 0:13:31.480 I don't think there'll be the kind of military escalation 0:13:31.600 --> 0:13:33.319 that Trump passed them as hinted. 0:13:33.559 --> 0:13:36.760 Perhaps there's a resource transaction in the pipeline. 0:13:36.800 --> 0:13:39.199 Neil I kind of would say the same thing. If 0:13:39.240 --> 0:13:41.880 we see aircraft carriers and that kind of thing in 0:13:41.880 --> 0:13:45.400 the Gulf of Guinea, will know that he is taking this. 0:13:45.920 --> 0:13:49.439 As far as he has. The Venezuela situation, I don't 0:13:49.480 --> 0:13:53.040 think that's in the cards either because I don't think it. 0:13:53.040 --> 0:13:55.319 It's sort of at the heart of US policy or 0:13:55.400 --> 0:13:58.079 his policy, the way that Venezuela and the drug trade are. 0:13:58.480 --> 0:14:00.880 I think, yeah, the most likely is in the months 0:14:01.440 --> 0:14:03.600 to come, as we see kind of trade deals and 0:14:03.640 --> 0:14:06.360 that kind of thing. You know, the Nigerian government could 0:14:06.360 --> 0:14:10.520 say we're very happy to accept US help and tackling 0:14:10.559 --> 0:14:13.320 the scourge of Islamism, which, to be fair, like US 0:14:13.360 --> 0:14:17.760 troops have been training Nigerian troops for years, that's been ongoing. 0:14:18.520 --> 0:14:21.520 And you know, on the other side, maybe they can 0:14:21.560 --> 0:14:26.720 offer US companies access to their largely untapped lithium reserves 0:14:26.840 --> 0:14:29.280 or other minerals in the country. 0:14:29.920 --> 0:14:33.320 And you can read Neo Munchi and Duka or Jinmo's 0:14:33.360 --> 0:14:35.680 report on Bloomberg platforms. 0:14:35.720 --> 0:14:37.920 Now we'll put a link to that in the show notes. 0:14:40.040 --> 0:14:41.960 Here are some of the other stories from the region 0:14:42.040 --> 0:14:47.080 we've been following this week. Guinea's military leader Mamadi Dumbuya 0:14:47.240 --> 0:14:50.640 will stand as a candidate in the country's first presidential 0:14:50.680 --> 0:14:54.760 elections since he sees power in a coup four years ago. 0:14:55.120 --> 0:14:59.680 And AI powered fintech firm Optasia Group rallied and it's 0:14:59.680 --> 0:15:03.080 stayed you on the Johannesburg burse that marked the nation's 0:15:03.160 --> 0:15:08.320 biggest initial public offering this year. Optasia's successful debut could 0:15:08.320 --> 0:15:12.240 set a trend for other fintech firms considering borse listings 0:15:12.280 --> 0:15:16.400 and help re energize market sentiment on the JS and 0:15:16.560 --> 0:15:19.920 You can find these stories on Bloomberg platforms now, including 0:15:19.960 --> 0:15:22.360 in the Next African Newsletter. Will put a link to 0:15:22.440 --> 0:15:27.600 that in the show notes. This program was produced by 0:15:27.640 --> 0:15:31.160 Adrian Bradley and tiwa Adebayo. Don't forget to follow and 0:15:31.240 --> 0:15:34.560 review this show wherever you usually get your podcasts, But 0:15:34.680 --> 0:15:36.320 for now I'm Jennifer's Abasaja. 0:15:36.520 --> 0:15:37.840 Thanks as always for listening.