1 00:00:00,400 --> 00:00:02,440 Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast. 2 00:00:03,160 --> 00:00:04,880 Speaker 2: I'm just about that action awesome. 3 00:00:07,680 --> 00:00:07,960 Speaker 3: All right. 4 00:00:08,039 --> 00:00:13,800 Speaker 1: Here we go there throwing in Joe. We're saying it's 5 00:00:13,800 --> 00:00:18,079 Speaker 1: a cash toto. We see most gamblers when they go 6 00:00:18,160 --> 00:00:23,200 Speaker 1: to gamble, they go to win. That's incredible. Big bank, 7 00:00:23,280 --> 00:00:26,040 Speaker 1: small banks. I like to make money. All right. This 8 00:00:26,239 --> 00:00:32,839 Speaker 1: is the ultimate kabinet and we are underway. 9 00:00:34,000 --> 00:00:37,640 Speaker 3: Welcome into the Action Network Podcast presented by bed MGM. 10 00:00:37,760 --> 00:00:42,159 Speaker 3: Brendan Glasheen Hosting today's episode, we're joined by Brandon Anderson, 11 00:00:42,280 --> 00:00:47,479 Speaker 3: Action Network NFL expert Early NFL long Shots. We are 12 00:00:47,520 --> 00:00:50,800 Speaker 3: recording ten days into the month of May, and. 13 00:00:50,840 --> 00:00:53,440 Speaker 2: We can't get enough of the National Football League. 14 00:00:53,520 --> 00:00:57,600 Speaker 3: We're welcoming back Brandon, who has scoured his very early 15 00:00:57,840 --> 00:01:01,480 Speaker 3: NFL futures card to identify some of his favorite long 16 00:01:01,520 --> 00:01:05,319 Speaker 3: shots heading into the twenty twenty four season. Nothing to 17 00:01:05,319 --> 00:01:07,760 Speaker 3: go overboard with. It's still the middle of May. But 18 00:01:07,920 --> 00:01:10,319 Speaker 3: just a little something here, just a little something to 19 00:01:10,400 --> 00:01:13,039 Speaker 3: bring you back and get the juices flow and get 20 00:01:13,040 --> 00:01:15,440 Speaker 3: some skin in the game. Now that the NFL Draft 21 00:01:15,959 --> 00:01:19,119 Speaker 3: has come and gone, the dust has settled. Brandon at 22 00:01:19,120 --> 00:01:23,360 Speaker 3: this stage mid May, just give us a brief understanding 23 00:01:23,400 --> 00:01:26,880 Speaker 3: as to what you're thinking about and how you're processing 24 00:01:26,959 --> 00:01:30,600 Speaker 3: information and what is there not. This is actually a 25 00:01:31,520 --> 00:01:34,360 Speaker 3: more dead period of the calendar for the National Football 26 00:01:34,480 --> 00:01:36,000 Speaker 3: There are rookie mini camps that are gonna get in 27 00:01:36,040 --> 00:01:38,399 Speaker 3: the Rookie Awards here in a second, but what are 28 00:01:38,440 --> 00:01:40,000 Speaker 3: you considering methodology? 29 00:01:40,040 --> 00:01:42,480 Speaker 1: As Yeah, as much of a dead period as the 30 00:01:42,560 --> 00:01:44,720 Speaker 1: NFL allows us to have, right the NFL is like 31 00:01:44,720 --> 00:01:47,480 Speaker 1: a thirteen month schedule at this point, the way just 32 00:01:47,680 --> 00:01:51,720 Speaker 1: keep on coming. So for me, basically, I'm just looking. 33 00:01:52,040 --> 00:01:55,400 Speaker 1: I'm looking down the board here. If you're betting something 34 00:01:55,480 --> 00:01:58,040 Speaker 1: right now, if you're gonna give tie up your money 35 00:01:58,080 --> 00:02:01,280 Speaker 1: in futures for what eight miles nine months right now, 36 00:02:01,760 --> 00:02:03,680 Speaker 1: you don't want to be playing the favorites. This is 37 00:02:03,720 --> 00:02:06,040 Speaker 1: not the spot to say, okay, well, who are the 38 00:02:06,080 --> 00:02:09,160 Speaker 1: top four or five choices here? Do I want the 39 00:02:09,160 --> 00:02:12,240 Speaker 1: plus one hundred odds? You can get that later, like 40 00:02:12,280 --> 00:02:14,960 Speaker 1: the number will be available later. We've got lots of time. 41 00:02:15,000 --> 00:02:17,320 Speaker 1: There are gonna be injuries, there will be signings. We'll 42 00:02:17,320 --> 00:02:19,800 Speaker 1: get to see these guys in mini camp, we'll watch preseason, 43 00:02:19,760 --> 00:02:22,440 Speaker 1: we'll watch hard knocks. It's all to come right. We 44 00:02:22,520 --> 00:02:26,200 Speaker 1: got months for all this stuff. For me, I'm paying 45 00:02:26,240 --> 00:02:28,720 Speaker 1: for gold, right, I am looking at them at the 46 00:02:28,760 --> 00:02:30,600 Speaker 1: top of the mark to say, Okay, who am I 47 00:02:30,600 --> 00:02:34,000 Speaker 1: competing with? Ah, this market looks kind of soft. Let 48 00:02:34,000 --> 00:02:36,320 Speaker 1: me scroll down the page a little bit. Give me 49 00:02:36,360 --> 00:02:38,799 Speaker 1: a fifty to one, a seventy five, one hundred to one. 50 00:02:39,360 --> 00:02:42,160 Speaker 1: Who might I not be able to make this bet 51 00:02:42,160 --> 00:02:46,120 Speaker 1: on later because something might shift in those odds and 52 00:02:46,200 --> 00:02:48,600 Speaker 1: I can't get this number later on. I need my 53 00:02:48,720 --> 00:02:52,280 Speaker 1: long shot. Now, that's the point. These are like, give 54 00:02:52,320 --> 00:02:55,160 Speaker 1: me a half unit, give me a quarter unit, a 55 00:02:55,200 --> 00:02:56,960 Speaker 1: tenth of a unit. If it's something really a long 56 00:02:57,000 --> 00:03:00,200 Speaker 1: you just want to sprinkle. These are just added to 57 00:03:00,240 --> 00:03:04,880 Speaker 1: the back of my portfolio. Honestly, most of them will bust. 58 00:03:05,120 --> 00:03:07,480 Speaker 1: If we come up with one or two here that 59 00:03:07,600 --> 00:03:10,240 Speaker 1: have some legs, by mid October, we will have done 60 00:03:10,280 --> 00:03:12,840 Speaker 1: our job. So we're just trying to find something on 61 00:03:12,880 --> 00:03:15,840 Speaker 1: the board that looks like it might have more value 62 00:03:15,919 --> 00:03:17,760 Speaker 1: than what the number is. That's betting, after all. 63 00:03:18,280 --> 00:03:22,400 Speaker 3: Very good, Okay, So I'm fascinated by We'll start with 64 00:03:22,480 --> 00:03:25,720 Speaker 3: offensive Rookie of the Year of the quarterbacks that were 65 00:03:25,800 --> 00:03:28,320 Speaker 3: drafted in the first round, a new NFL record. 66 00:03:29,000 --> 00:03:31,160 Speaker 2: It's pretty safe and certain. 67 00:03:30,840 --> 00:03:33,560 Speaker 3: That Caleb Williams and Jaden Daniels are going to start. 68 00:03:33,639 --> 00:03:35,920 Speaker 3: They are going to start week one, we think for 69 00:03:36,080 --> 00:03:38,320 Speaker 3: the Bears and the Commanders respectively. 70 00:03:38,520 --> 00:03:39,600 Speaker 2: They're at the top of the board. 71 00:03:39,600 --> 00:03:43,120 Speaker 3: The Williams number has come down since Draft night was 72 00:03:43,160 --> 00:03:45,680 Speaker 3: around three to one. Now a HEA's plus one seventy 73 00:03:45,720 --> 00:03:47,920 Speaker 3: to win Offensive Rookie of the Year, Daniel's files and 74 00:03:48,000 --> 00:03:50,240 Speaker 3: next there's a drop off there at plus six hundred. 75 00:03:50,680 --> 00:03:54,800 Speaker 3: I'm fascinated by your handicap of these receivers taken in 76 00:03:54,840 --> 00:03:57,520 Speaker 3: the first and second round and the other which we'll 77 00:03:57,520 --> 00:04:01,120 Speaker 3: get to, the other quarterbacks that are quote quote competing 78 00:04:01,200 --> 00:04:03,280 Speaker 3: for the starting job. But it's more so to protect 79 00:04:03,360 --> 00:04:06,880 Speaker 3: the teams, protecting not just the quarterback but themselves from 80 00:04:06,920 --> 00:04:10,400 Speaker 3: falling flat on their faces, such as the Patriots, the Vikings, 81 00:04:10,440 --> 00:04:12,520 Speaker 3: oh yeah, and in the middle there the Atlanta Falcons, 82 00:04:12,520 --> 00:04:13,640 Speaker 3: which we'll discuss. 83 00:04:13,880 --> 00:04:15,720 Speaker 2: You've got a fascinating play there. 84 00:04:15,720 --> 00:04:18,920 Speaker 3: But take me through your analysis of the Offensive Rookie 85 00:04:18,920 --> 00:04:19,559 Speaker 3: of the Year board. 86 00:04:20,279 --> 00:04:22,360 Speaker 1: Yeah, so this is a great case to start with here. 87 00:04:23,000 --> 00:04:26,599 Speaker 1: You cannot give your books money for Caleb Williams Rookie 88 00:04:26,600 --> 00:04:30,160 Speaker 1: of the Year right now, eight months away. Plus one 89 00:04:30,360 --> 00:04:34,000 Speaker 1: seventy some books, those are such low odds for you, 90 00:04:34,040 --> 00:04:36,279 Speaker 1: we would see this guy play football at all. Yet 91 00:04:36,360 --> 00:04:39,080 Speaker 1: in the National Football League there are so many options. 92 00:04:39,160 --> 00:04:43,120 Speaker 1: The top fourteen picks in the draft are all offensive players. 93 00:04:43,480 --> 00:04:48,320 Speaker 1: So this is theoretically a more loaded, deeper offensive Rookie 94 00:04:48,360 --> 00:04:50,560 Speaker 1: of the Year field than we have ever seen before. 95 00:04:51,000 --> 00:04:54,400 Speaker 1: We've got five other first round quarterbacks. And also, if 96 00:04:54,440 --> 00:04:56,200 Speaker 1: you look back, you know my thing. Don't get too 97 00:04:56,240 --> 00:04:59,960 Speaker 1: deep into the profile here. Only two winners for Rookie 98 00:05:00,080 --> 00:05:03,599 Speaker 1: the Year offensive in the last decade started the year 99 00:05:03,640 --> 00:05:06,880 Speaker 1: plus eight hundred or shorter. You don't want the favorite here. 100 00:05:06,920 --> 00:05:08,800 Speaker 1: The favorite is not where you want to go on 101 00:05:08,839 --> 00:05:12,080 Speaker 1: this award. It is a quarterback award. Three of the 102 00:05:12,120 --> 00:05:15,760 Speaker 1: last five quarterback winners for the last eight, seven of fourteen, 103 00:05:15,880 --> 00:05:18,440 Speaker 1: ten of twenty, so about half of the time it's 104 00:05:18,440 --> 00:05:21,839 Speaker 1: a quarterback. It seems like, all right, what was the 105 00:05:21,839 --> 00:05:24,640 Speaker 1: story of the draft? Six quarterbacks? That's all we're talking about. 106 00:05:25,200 --> 00:05:27,520 Speaker 1: That seems like the thing we'll talk about all year, 107 00:05:27,920 --> 00:05:30,600 Speaker 1: that it's probably gonna end up one of these quarterbacks. 108 00:05:30,960 --> 00:05:34,719 Speaker 1: And sure is Caleb Williams the right favorite. Absolutely, he 109 00:05:34,800 --> 00:05:37,279 Speaker 1: absolutely the right favorite. He was the number one pick. 110 00:05:37,320 --> 00:05:40,240 Speaker 1: He's going to the Bear's a great situation, great receivers. 111 00:05:40,480 --> 00:05:42,320 Speaker 1: I'm not saying he's not gonna win a Rookie of 112 00:05:42,320 --> 00:05:44,640 Speaker 1: the Year. I'm just saying we can bet it in 113 00:05:44,680 --> 00:05:46,280 Speaker 1: August if we think he's gonna win a Rookie of 114 00:05:46,320 --> 00:05:48,560 Speaker 1: the Year. We'll get back to that later. You do 115 00:05:48,680 --> 00:05:51,880 Speaker 1: want a first round pick. Seventeen to last twenty winners 116 00:05:51,960 --> 00:05:55,000 Speaker 1: have been a first round guys. Twelve of the last 117 00:05:55,000 --> 00:05:57,880 Speaker 1: twenty winners our top eight guys. So you don't want 118 00:05:57,880 --> 00:06:00,320 Speaker 1: to go too far down the board here. For me, 119 00:06:00,480 --> 00:06:03,640 Speaker 1: that's why with so many names and a lot of 120 00:06:03,680 --> 00:06:06,280 Speaker 1: short odds here, gotta be careful early on. I think 121 00:06:06,320 --> 00:06:09,080 Speaker 1: Caleb Williams is the guy obviously to talk about again later. 122 00:06:09,720 --> 00:06:12,520 Speaker 1: Some of the other quarterbacks, you know, Michael Penix, we 123 00:06:12,520 --> 00:06:15,000 Speaker 1: don't know if he'll start. Bow Knicks. I don't know 124 00:06:15,040 --> 00:06:16,919 Speaker 1: if I wanted to start like bow Nix is like 125 00:06:16,960 --> 00:06:19,359 Speaker 1: a third or fourth round Joyce that I guess. I 126 00:06:19,360 --> 00:06:21,640 Speaker 1: guess we have to have somebody play for the Broncos, 127 00:06:22,120 --> 00:06:24,840 Speaker 1: not a guy or a roster or a team. I 128 00:06:24,880 --> 00:06:27,960 Speaker 1: can believe in putting up numbers to win Rookie of 129 00:06:27,960 --> 00:06:31,400 Speaker 1: the Year. That's another thing too, We need numbers here 130 00:06:31,640 --> 00:06:34,520 Speaker 1: more than winning. Winning will help, but we need numbers. 131 00:06:34,960 --> 00:06:38,800 Speaker 1: Six straight Rookie of the Year quarterback winners finished as 132 00:06:38,880 --> 00:06:42,560 Speaker 1: top ten fantasy quarterbacks. So that that's a good point 133 00:06:42,600 --> 00:06:45,200 Speaker 1: to say, Okay, I can't just come in and like 134 00:06:45,320 --> 00:06:47,960 Speaker 1: game manage my way to winning Rookie of the Year. 135 00:06:48,040 --> 00:06:51,360 Speaker 1: So that might be a spot wherej McCarthy loses a 136 00:06:51,360 --> 00:06:53,600 Speaker 1: little bit of luster. Maybe you say, okay, well, can 137 00:06:53,640 --> 00:06:56,120 Speaker 1: you come and just do the thing for Minnesota and 138 00:06:56,200 --> 00:06:58,120 Speaker 1: just get them over the line to a playoff spot? 139 00:06:58,120 --> 00:07:01,120 Speaker 1: Would that do the job well? Historically, you got to 140 00:07:01,160 --> 00:07:05,000 Speaker 1: get some numbers here for me. Of the quarterbacks, that's 141 00:07:05,040 --> 00:07:08,760 Speaker 1: where Jayden Daniels looks really interesting because he's gonna run. 142 00:07:09,040 --> 00:07:13,360 Speaker 1: He's gonna get those running stats. And look, you know 143 00:07:13,400 --> 00:07:16,640 Speaker 1: how I love love to hate on Cliff Kingsbury, but 144 00:07:16,760 --> 00:07:20,640 Speaker 1: Cliff Kingsbury was a coach. When Caller Murray won Rookie 145 00:07:20,640 --> 00:07:22,680 Speaker 1: of the Year, he raised the floor, He got him 146 00:07:22,680 --> 00:07:26,520 Speaker 1: out as a runner. Caller Murray under Cliff Kingsbury was 147 00:07:26,560 --> 00:07:29,200 Speaker 1: a top ten fantasy quarterback three times in a row 148 00:07:29,240 --> 00:07:31,760 Speaker 1: to start his career out. 149 00:07:31,680 --> 00:07:34,400 Speaker 2: So offensive Rookie of the Year Kyler. 150 00:07:34,240 --> 00:07:37,680 Speaker 1: Murray exactly one offense rookie of the years as a 151 00:07:37,720 --> 00:07:40,520 Speaker 1: top pick, so I think that it sets up well 152 00:07:40,560 --> 00:07:42,800 Speaker 1: for him. But again, the best number I see for 153 00:07:42,880 --> 00:07:46,040 Speaker 1: Daniels right now is plus eight hundred. If I had 154 00:07:46,040 --> 00:07:48,360 Speaker 1: to bet something on offensive rookie of the year, that 155 00:07:48,520 --> 00:07:52,640 Speaker 1: probably is the play I would make right now. Eight hundred. Yeah, 156 00:07:52,720 --> 00:07:56,040 Speaker 1: I could see that number not necessarily being there a 157 00:07:56,080 --> 00:07:58,600 Speaker 1: few months from now. Maybe we get a six to 158 00:07:58,640 --> 00:08:01,240 Speaker 1: one or seven to one. I think that would be 159 00:08:01,280 --> 00:08:04,600 Speaker 1: my best play among the quarterbacks because of the fantasy upside. 160 00:08:05,000 --> 00:08:08,240 Speaker 1: But again, when I say a long shots, like just 161 00:08:08,240 --> 00:08:10,840 Speaker 1: a clear fact you know this, Brandon, I'm not talking 162 00:08:10,840 --> 00:08:13,040 Speaker 1: about seven to one or eight to one long shots. 163 00:08:13,120 --> 00:08:16,560 Speaker 1: We are getting long down down the board. So to me, 164 00:08:16,680 --> 00:08:19,120 Speaker 1: Jane Daniels is the quarterback that i'd want of my 165 00:08:19,240 --> 00:08:21,720 Speaker 1: choices there. But that's kind of what I'm looking at 166 00:08:21,840 --> 00:08:24,400 Speaker 1: among at least the quarterbacks starting out. 167 00:08:25,000 --> 00:08:27,160 Speaker 3: Okay, very good, And I think you brought up a 168 00:08:27,160 --> 00:08:33,040 Speaker 3: great point about game management situation that that certainly plays 169 00:08:33,040 --> 00:08:37,280 Speaker 3: a part. And yeah, it could call like Bonix could 170 00:08:37,320 --> 00:08:39,440 Speaker 3: I guess in theory would be there QB one right now, 171 00:08:39,520 --> 00:08:40,200 Speaker 3: But I don't know. 172 00:08:40,280 --> 00:08:43,080 Speaker 2: Zach Wilson, Jared Stidham maybe. 173 00:08:43,240 --> 00:08:45,600 Speaker 1: Right well, And that's the thing too with the quarterbacks. 174 00:08:45,679 --> 00:08:48,120 Speaker 1: I didn't mention Drake May. We don't know if some 175 00:08:48,160 --> 00:08:50,120 Speaker 1: of these guys even will start at the beginning of 176 00:08:50,120 --> 00:08:53,000 Speaker 1: the season, which is another reason that why do we 177 00:08:53,080 --> 00:08:55,600 Speaker 1: need to tye up our money in May for a 178 00:08:55,640 --> 00:08:58,160 Speaker 1: guy that bright whose price can only drop if you 179 00:08:58,240 --> 00:09:01,240 Speaker 1: don't start the season. You are going to drop in 180 00:09:01,320 --> 00:09:04,240 Speaker 1: price for Rookie of the Year in August, in September, 181 00:09:04,320 --> 00:09:06,720 Speaker 1: in New October, until you get on the field. So 182 00:09:06,840 --> 00:09:09,280 Speaker 1: I think it's a good spot to be careful there. Obviously, 183 00:09:09,320 --> 00:09:11,400 Speaker 1: the receivers are the other story here with Rookie of 184 00:09:11,440 --> 00:09:13,560 Speaker 1: the Year the other guy that I would love to 185 00:09:13,600 --> 00:09:16,200 Speaker 1: have a position on, but again the number is pretty short. 186 00:09:16,559 --> 00:09:19,480 Speaker 1: Marvin Harrison Junior is a stut. Marvin Harrison is going 187 00:09:19,559 --> 00:09:23,360 Speaker 1: to put up the numbers. The Cardinals finally have a 188 00:09:23,440 --> 00:09:26,400 Speaker 1: go to receiver. Here's what that's looked like when Kyler 189 00:09:26,480 --> 00:09:29,480 Speaker 1: Murray has been healthy the last couple of years. Two 190 00:09:29,559 --> 00:09:32,800 Speaker 1: years ago, Markis Brown first six weeks of the season. 191 00:09:33,200 --> 00:09:36,880 Speaker 1: Here was his seventeen game pace healthy Marqus Brown with 192 00:09:36,920 --> 00:09:40,120 Speaker 1: healthy Kyler Murray one hundred and twenty two catches thirteen 193 00:09:40,240 --> 00:09:42,920 Speaker 1: hundred and seventy five yards. Yeah, that'll put you in 194 00:09:42,920 --> 00:09:44,440 Speaker 1: the Rookie of the Year race if you can get 195 00:09:44,440 --> 00:09:48,440 Speaker 1: those numbers. Last year it was Trey McBride rookie tight end. 196 00:09:48,840 --> 00:09:50,720 Speaker 1: So the yards per catch aren't is good here, but 197 00:09:50,800 --> 00:09:54,280 Speaker 1: his pace over nine weeks and the season with Kyler 198 00:09:54,559 --> 00:09:58,040 Speaker 1: one hundred and thirteen catches eleven hundred and forty three yards. 199 00:09:58,320 --> 00:10:02,800 Speaker 1: So why Marvin Harrison get one hundred plus catches and 200 00:10:02,840 --> 00:10:05,920 Speaker 1: be a target monster as the guy like he's competing 201 00:10:05,960 --> 00:10:11,280 Speaker 1: with Greg Dortsch, Zach Pascal, Michael Wilson. I guess Trey 202 00:10:11,320 --> 00:10:14,040 Speaker 1: McBride the tight end, like these are the guys, and 203 00:10:14,080 --> 00:10:16,560 Speaker 1: then Marvin Harrison Junior, like he's gonna get his catches. 204 00:10:16,920 --> 00:10:19,960 Speaker 1: So I think, to me, of the receivers, he's a 205 00:10:20,040 --> 00:10:22,679 Speaker 1: guy that I expect to have a huge season right away. 206 00:10:22,960 --> 00:10:25,960 Speaker 1: You can bet him over one thousand receiving yards. I 207 00:10:26,000 --> 00:10:28,840 Speaker 1: think that's a gimme bet. But again it's a minus 208 00:10:28,840 --> 00:10:32,240 Speaker 1: one ten, minus one twenty. Sometimes do I really need 209 00:10:32,280 --> 00:10:34,280 Speaker 1: to win that bet? I can win it, but I 210 00:10:34,280 --> 00:10:36,560 Speaker 1: don't really need my money tied up for eight months 211 00:10:36,600 --> 00:10:39,240 Speaker 1: just to get one little bet like that among the 212 00:10:39,320 --> 00:10:43,120 Speaker 1: other options. You know, Malik Neighbors, I don't know that 213 00:10:43,160 --> 00:10:46,800 Speaker 1: I love betting on a Giants receiver. Daniel Jones. That system, 214 00:10:46,840 --> 00:10:50,000 Speaker 1: I just don't get excited about that. Odonsay, I love him, 215 00:10:50,360 --> 00:10:53,440 Speaker 1: but he's probably the third guy in Chicago. And then 216 00:10:53,480 --> 00:10:55,360 Speaker 1: you start to pay too much for some of the 217 00:10:55,400 --> 00:10:57,840 Speaker 1: other options. Dave, you're worthy. I'm seeing it like sixteen 218 00:10:57,880 --> 00:10:59,959 Speaker 1: to one. We don't really know what his role is 219 00:11:00,200 --> 00:11:03,480 Speaker 1: be in Kansas City, Kean Coleman, Lad McConkie. And now 220 00:11:03,480 --> 00:11:06,000 Speaker 1: we're in the second round. Now we're kind of saying, Okay, 221 00:11:06,040 --> 00:11:09,439 Speaker 1: well we got opportunity, but is it the right opportunity? 222 00:11:09,440 --> 00:11:12,400 Speaker 1: Is the right price? Again, there will be chances for 223 00:11:12,480 --> 00:11:15,040 Speaker 1: these guys. These are their right names to talk about. 224 00:11:15,520 --> 00:11:18,320 Speaker 1: To me, if I had to peck right now, I'd 225 00:11:18,440 --> 00:11:21,560 Speaker 1: want a position on Daniels and Marvin Harrison. But I 226 00:11:21,559 --> 00:11:23,880 Speaker 1: don't feel the need to run out and grab a 227 00:11:23,920 --> 00:11:27,680 Speaker 1: position on these rookies. We've got time. There's much to 228 00:11:27,800 --> 00:11:28,560 Speaker 1: be learned here. 229 00:11:28,679 --> 00:11:32,040 Speaker 3: Still you give out this kind of analysis, Brandon, Things 230 00:11:32,040 --> 00:11:34,120 Speaker 3: could go right for some of these rookies that could 231 00:11:34,160 --> 00:11:35,959 Speaker 3: step in and get plenty time just for the from 232 00:11:36,000 --> 00:11:38,520 Speaker 3: a betting standpoint, just getting games and then who knows, 233 00:11:38,520 --> 00:11:40,840 Speaker 3: maybe you catch lightning in a bottle could also go 234 00:11:40,960 --> 00:11:45,800 Speaker 3: wrong for certain people like Kirk Cousins. Cynical you, cynical figure, 235 00:11:46,559 --> 00:11:49,360 Speaker 3: Michael Pennick's junior. There is something you are interested in 236 00:11:49,440 --> 00:11:50,720 Speaker 3: right now in the Penix market. 237 00:11:51,679 --> 00:11:53,760 Speaker 1: I can't get past this. So I had to give 238 00:11:53,800 --> 00:11:58,320 Speaker 1: you one crazy long shot rookie type bat for offense 239 00:11:58,400 --> 00:12:02,600 Speaker 1: rookie of the year right now on which quarterback will 240 00:12:02,720 --> 00:12:07,920 Speaker 1: lead rookie quarterbacks in passing yards? And I'm enable our 241 00:12:07,960 --> 00:12:13,280 Speaker 1: boy Michael Penis Junior eighty to one to lead rookie 242 00:12:13,360 --> 00:12:16,920 Speaker 1: quarterbacks in passing yards. So here's the case. If I 243 00:12:17,080 --> 00:12:20,640 Speaker 1: told you right now Michael Pennocks Junior started day one, 244 00:12:22,000 --> 00:12:24,840 Speaker 1: I think he'd be the favorite in this category. You've 245 00:12:24,880 --> 00:12:28,280 Speaker 1: got Drake London, You've got Kyle Pitts. It's a good system. 246 00:12:28,679 --> 00:12:32,199 Speaker 1: This is a team I wrote multiple articles about man 247 00:12:32,320 --> 00:12:35,000 Speaker 1: the Falcons are such a great landing spot for quarterback. 248 00:12:35,040 --> 00:12:36,720 Speaker 1: Who will the right quarterback be? And then it was 249 00:12:36,800 --> 00:12:40,640 Speaker 1: Kirk Cousins, and it should be Kirk Cousins. It's probably 250 00:12:40,760 --> 00:12:44,920 Speaker 1: Kirk Cousins one. If it's not Kirk Cousins. We just 251 00:12:45,200 --> 00:12:49,080 Speaker 1: watched this moron team pay one hundred million dollars to 252 00:12:49,200 --> 00:12:52,559 Speaker 1: Kirk Cousins and then immediately spend the number eight pick 253 00:12:52,880 --> 00:12:55,520 Speaker 1: in one of the most baffling draft picks we've seen 254 00:12:56,040 --> 00:12:59,640 Speaker 1: on a near twenty four year old quarterback. That is 255 00:12:59,679 --> 00:13:03,439 Speaker 1: a pair on the quarterback in the future. Nobody understood it, 256 00:13:03,559 --> 00:13:05,600 Speaker 1: Like I lost a bunch of bets because of it. 257 00:13:05,640 --> 00:13:08,360 Speaker 1: I didn't cash my under four and a half quarterbacks. 258 00:13:09,240 --> 00:13:12,560 Speaker 1: Why did Atlanta do it? I don't know, But isn't 259 00:13:12,600 --> 00:13:15,800 Speaker 1: it possible, Brendan? If Atlanta is willing to break all 260 00:13:15,840 --> 00:13:20,520 Speaker 1: the rules to draft the quarterback, why wouldn't they think 261 00:13:20,559 --> 00:13:23,679 Speaker 1: about playing the quarterback? And if I look at the 262 00:13:23,760 --> 00:13:28,240 Speaker 1: math here eighty to one. If I knew Pennis was starting, 263 00:13:28,840 --> 00:13:31,199 Speaker 1: I think I give him at least thirty percent chance 264 00:13:31,440 --> 00:13:35,200 Speaker 1: to be the rookie quarterback passing yards leader. At eighty 265 00:13:35,240 --> 00:13:38,480 Speaker 1: to one, I basically need a one in twenty five 266 00:13:38,600 --> 00:13:41,960 Speaker 1: shot that he starts the season as the Falcons quarterback. 267 00:13:43,120 --> 00:13:45,400 Speaker 1: Is there a one in twenty five shot? I don't know. 268 00:13:45,600 --> 00:13:48,200 Speaker 1: They're pretty weird franchise. I don't know what they're doing. 269 00:13:48,720 --> 00:13:52,320 Speaker 1: Why not? And and again this is one of those 270 00:13:52,400 --> 00:13:57,120 Speaker 1: where something could happen tomorrow before we're done recording, the 271 00:13:57,120 --> 00:14:00,000 Speaker 1: Falcons could announce we're gonna start Michael Pennocks and gas. 272 00:14:00,160 --> 00:14:02,240 Speaker 1: What now we have an eighty to one ticket on 273 00:14:02,280 --> 00:14:05,240 Speaker 1: a plus three hundred ticket. That's what we're looking for 274 00:14:05,280 --> 00:14:10,199 Speaker 1: in the long Shots episode is something where Steam actions, 275 00:14:10,240 --> 00:14:13,600 Speaker 1: something crazy happens and suddenly we're sitting on a gold 276 00:14:13,640 --> 00:14:16,560 Speaker 1: mine ticket that we can hedge, that we can run. 277 00:14:17,040 --> 00:14:19,600 Speaker 1: And that's what we're doing here. So that's my one 278 00:14:20,000 --> 00:14:23,000 Speaker 1: offensive rookie pick. And now you get a flavor for 279 00:14:23,080 --> 00:14:26,120 Speaker 1: what we're looking for on this here long Shots episode. 280 00:14:26,560 --> 00:14:29,520 Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, look, you never know injury. I don't 281 00:14:29,560 --> 00:14:31,400 Speaker 3: know if you can trade that contract right away. 282 00:14:31,480 --> 00:14:35,280 Speaker 1: But uh, Kirk, I mean Kirk Cousins is old and 283 00:14:35,360 --> 00:14:37,520 Speaker 1: coming off the Achilles. You're right, like, well, you got 284 00:14:37,520 --> 00:14:39,600 Speaker 1: to mention that too. He might just he might just 285 00:14:39,640 --> 00:14:41,640 Speaker 1: be washed. He might just not be able to play 286 00:14:41,720 --> 00:14:43,920 Speaker 1: or not be healthy enough to play. There are outs 287 00:14:43,960 --> 00:14:44,920 Speaker 1: here for us. 288 00:14:45,200 --> 00:14:48,680 Speaker 2: Mm hmm. Okay, there's your offensive Rookie of the Year breakdown. 289 00:14:48,760 --> 00:14:50,200 Speaker 2: The Michael Packs eighty to one. 290 00:14:50,280 --> 00:14:53,200 Speaker 3: My god, all right, let's go to uh defensive Rookie 291 00:14:53,200 --> 00:14:54,560 Speaker 3: of the year. Won't spend a ton of time year 292 00:14:54,600 --> 00:14:55,840 Speaker 3: because defensive. 293 00:14:55,360 --> 00:14:59,640 Speaker 2: Players were not really they were, they were not. There 294 00:14:59,640 --> 00:14:59,960 Speaker 2: were a dime. 295 00:15:00,040 --> 00:15:02,120 Speaker 3: It doesn't here in the first first round. There was 296 00:15:02,160 --> 00:15:05,320 Speaker 3: not much love for defense in this NFL draft. But 297 00:15:05,520 --> 00:15:07,680 Speaker 3: you put this out the night of the draft. 298 00:15:07,400 --> 00:15:09,680 Speaker 2: The numbers come down on Dallas Turner, Minnesota. 299 00:15:10,520 --> 00:15:12,640 Speaker 1: Yeah. I like Dallas Turner a lot for this award. 300 00:15:12,800 --> 00:15:16,320 Speaker 1: With Defensive Rookie the Year. As with really any defensive award, 301 00:15:16,400 --> 00:15:20,240 Speaker 1: an any league defensive award, you do want the favorites, right, 302 00:15:20,520 --> 00:15:23,360 Speaker 1: you want the favorites. Nobody really pays attention to defense, 303 00:15:23,400 --> 00:15:25,480 Speaker 1: so they just vote for the guy that everyone says 304 00:15:25,600 --> 00:15:28,080 Speaker 1: is good at defense. And usually that's the guy that 305 00:15:28,160 --> 00:15:30,120 Speaker 1: everyone thought was good at defense at the top of 306 00:15:30,200 --> 00:15:33,960 Speaker 1: the draft. So for the last five winners started the 307 00:15:34,000 --> 00:15:36,360 Speaker 1: year plus seven hundred or shorter. Here seven of the 308 00:15:36,440 --> 00:15:39,440 Speaker 1: last ten winners seven or more sacks. We just want 309 00:15:39,560 --> 00:15:43,240 Speaker 1: flashy plays from dudes that you've heard of their name before, 310 00:15:43,640 --> 00:15:46,880 Speaker 1: and that's Dallas Turner, twenty of the last twenty four 311 00:15:46,960 --> 00:15:49,480 Speaker 1: DEFENSEI Rookie of the years. We're top fifteen draft picks 312 00:15:49,520 --> 00:15:52,960 Speaker 1: now Dallas Turner was seventeenth, but I'm going to count 313 00:15:53,040 --> 00:15:56,360 Speaker 1: him here, because if we're going top fifteen, it's one 314 00:15:56,680 --> 00:16:00,240 Speaker 1: one defender. We got one number fifteen defender this year 315 00:16:00,280 --> 00:16:02,120 Speaker 1: a lot too. Who's the number two twice here? I 316 00:16:02,120 --> 00:16:05,320 Speaker 1: think is probably a good case too. Dallas Turner, you're 317 00:16:05,360 --> 00:16:08,960 Speaker 1: gonna play for Brian Flores. He blitzed three hundred and 318 00:16:09,000 --> 00:16:11,840 Speaker 1: forty eight times last year. No one is more aggressive. 319 00:16:12,120 --> 00:16:14,360 Speaker 1: Next highst is to eighty eight, So we're gonna get 320 00:16:14,360 --> 00:16:17,160 Speaker 1: a ton of blitz says Danille Hunter. Sixteen and a 321 00:16:17,160 --> 00:16:22,000 Speaker 1: half sacks gone, DJ Wantum eight sacks gone. Dallas Turner's 322 00:16:22,040 --> 00:16:25,080 Speaker 1: gonna get some chances. He even reminds me of last 323 00:16:25,160 --> 00:16:27,720 Speaker 1: year's guy. You know, I was in on Will Anderson. 324 00:16:27,840 --> 00:16:30,400 Speaker 1: That was our pick last year. Okay, so what was 325 00:16:30,440 --> 00:16:34,280 Speaker 1: the case draft? A quarterback draft, an edge rusher. Put 326 00:16:34,320 --> 00:16:38,040 Speaker 1: him next to Jonathan Grenard who's now in Minnesota. Let 327 00:16:38,080 --> 00:16:40,600 Speaker 1: him come off the edge, give me some sacks, give 328 00:16:40,680 --> 00:16:44,560 Speaker 1: me the award. I guess some dejevou here, it's only 329 00:16:44,600 --> 00:16:47,280 Speaker 1: around plus five hundred. Now this is the guy I want. 330 00:16:47,320 --> 00:16:49,720 Speaker 1: This is the ticket I want. We get a plus 331 00:16:49,760 --> 00:16:52,120 Speaker 1: seven to fifty the night of the draft. I don't 332 00:16:52,120 --> 00:16:55,800 Speaker 1: really see this getting so shorter here, so we mentioned 333 00:16:55,840 --> 00:16:57,760 Speaker 1: it because we're still out of the draft. It's a 334 00:16:57,760 --> 00:16:59,760 Speaker 1: good spot to get on a record here. This is 335 00:16:59,800 --> 00:17:02,280 Speaker 1: the I want here, But I don't think you're going 336 00:17:02,320 --> 00:17:05,760 Speaker 1: to mess out too much waiting too long toward the season. 337 00:17:06,440 --> 00:17:09,120 Speaker 1: But plus five hundred, I still like the value there. 338 00:17:10,119 --> 00:17:14,000 Speaker 3: Yeah, it's fascinating too with that division. Very good run teams. 339 00:17:14,000 --> 00:17:16,560 Speaker 3: Now we'll see what Chicago looks like in that passing attack, 340 00:17:16,600 --> 00:17:18,480 Speaker 3: but young quarterbacks that are up and coming. 341 00:17:18,520 --> 00:17:19,720 Speaker 2: Of course with McCarthy. 342 00:17:19,760 --> 00:17:22,199 Speaker 3: We think in Minnesota Jared Goff had a great year 343 00:17:22,280 --> 00:17:25,280 Speaker 3: last year, but teams that run the ball. So I'm 344 00:17:25,280 --> 00:17:27,880 Speaker 3: curious with that division sort of beating up on each other. 345 00:17:27,960 --> 00:17:29,760 Speaker 3: Packers had a lot of steam coming in because of 346 00:17:29,800 --> 00:17:32,040 Speaker 3: the run they made Minnesota with the moves they've made 347 00:17:32,440 --> 00:17:35,840 Speaker 3: now going young at quarterback, Lions seem to be legit. 348 00:17:35,920 --> 00:17:37,840 Speaker 3: And then you've got Tayler Williams and the Bears. So 349 00:17:37,880 --> 00:17:40,880 Speaker 3: that just any market and we'll get into that more 350 00:17:40,920 --> 00:17:44,040 Speaker 3: throughout the show, but any market that involves the NFC 351 00:17:44,119 --> 00:17:45,040 Speaker 3: North is interesting. 352 00:17:45,520 --> 00:17:46,560 Speaker 2: Okay, let's do MVP. 353 00:17:47,760 --> 00:17:51,040 Speaker 3: Patrick Mahomes is the current favorite right now. Your thoughts 354 00:17:51,040 --> 00:17:53,200 Speaker 3: on Mahomes and then we'll take it from there. 355 00:17:54,320 --> 00:17:56,879 Speaker 1: I mean, Mahomes is the right favorite. Mahomes is the 356 00:17:56,920 --> 00:18:00,520 Speaker 1: right favorite every season until we have some reason to 357 00:18:00,560 --> 00:18:03,840 Speaker 1: believe he's not the right favorite. Right, It's just Mahomes 358 00:18:04,400 --> 00:18:09,080 Speaker 1: and they're set up well. The division sucks, They're probably gonna. 359 00:18:08,840 --> 00:18:10,879 Speaker 2: Go see such a divisions Yeah. 360 00:18:11,000 --> 00:18:13,760 Speaker 1: Yeah, Like like if you had to set the over 361 00:18:13,840 --> 00:18:16,640 Speaker 1: under on division wins for the Chiefs, it's over five 362 00:18:16,680 --> 00:18:18,680 Speaker 1: and a half and you're paying juice if you want 363 00:18:18,720 --> 00:18:22,480 Speaker 1: to get that one. So there's six likely wins. I 364 00:18:22,520 --> 00:18:25,760 Speaker 1: don't really feel like the rest of the AFC did 365 00:18:25,800 --> 00:18:27,840 Speaker 1: themselves a lot of favors. As far as who is 366 00:18:27,880 --> 00:18:29,760 Speaker 1: that number two team in the AFC, I've got a 367 00:18:29,800 --> 00:18:32,320 Speaker 1: candid for you that will get to But I feel 368 00:18:32,359 --> 00:18:36,119 Speaker 1: like the gap widen didn't close this year from a 369 00:18:36,160 --> 00:18:41,440 Speaker 1: team that's already the best, that already keeps winning super Bowls. So, yeah, 370 00:18:41,560 --> 00:18:44,600 Speaker 1: Chiefs win six division games, they're the likely one seed. 371 00:18:45,000 --> 00:18:46,960 Speaker 1: Guess what if you're the one seed and you're the 372 00:18:47,040 --> 00:18:50,600 Speaker 1: quarterback and you're Patrick Mahomes, You're gonna be like top 373 00:18:50,640 --> 00:18:53,040 Speaker 1: three in the MVP race and you might just win it. 374 00:18:53,119 --> 00:18:56,520 Speaker 1: So quite frankly, what are we at I think plus 375 00:18:56,560 --> 00:19:00,800 Speaker 1: six fifty for Mahomes. He's the favorite here. I literally 376 00:19:00,840 --> 00:19:02,480 Speaker 1: told you at the top this is not a time 377 00:19:02,480 --> 00:19:05,639 Speaker 1: to bet favorites. I don't mind you bet Patrick Mahomes 378 00:19:05,680 --> 00:19:09,680 Speaker 1: plus six fifty. I honestly think and till proven otherwise 379 00:19:09,680 --> 00:19:12,600 Speaker 1: and tell either he or the Chiefs fall off. I 380 00:19:12,680 --> 00:19:15,480 Speaker 1: would not start him anything longer than plus three hundred. 381 00:19:15,880 --> 00:19:19,200 Speaker 1: So that's twenty five percent where we're getting double the 382 00:19:19,280 --> 00:19:22,680 Speaker 1: number here. If you are a player, if you're someone 383 00:19:22,680 --> 00:19:25,840 Speaker 1: that either wants one MVP pick or somebody that wants 384 00:19:25,880 --> 00:19:30,360 Speaker 1: to build a portfolio and MVP, you almost definitely need 385 00:19:30,400 --> 00:19:34,080 Speaker 1: Mahomes in your portfolio this year, and it's probably not 386 00:19:34,119 --> 00:19:37,440 Speaker 1: gonna get longer, maybe at all. Well, you we'll see 387 00:19:37,440 --> 00:19:39,240 Speaker 1: what the schedule looks like. Maybe they have a tough 388 00:19:39,240 --> 00:19:41,080 Speaker 1: opening month and you get to lose a couple of 389 00:19:41,119 --> 00:19:44,399 Speaker 1: games early or something like that. He's the right favorite. 390 00:19:44,600 --> 00:19:47,040 Speaker 1: I don't mind you betting him right now. He's really 391 00:19:47,080 --> 00:19:49,680 Speaker 1: the only one among the favorites that even look at 392 00:19:49,680 --> 00:19:51,919 Speaker 1: betting right now. Though maybe it's just me. 393 00:19:52,280 --> 00:19:55,000 Speaker 3: I hate the list of quarterbacks that are shorter than 394 00:19:55,040 --> 00:19:55,560 Speaker 3: twenty to one. 395 00:19:55,960 --> 00:19:59,199 Speaker 2: So going in ascending. 396 00:19:58,840 --> 00:20:05,440 Speaker 3: Order at eight to one CJ. Stroud, Borrow, Lamar, Jordan Love, 397 00:20:05,680 --> 00:20:09,960 Speaker 3: Herbert Dak Prescott. That's who you got coming after Patrick Mahomes. 398 00:20:10,200 --> 00:20:11,600 Speaker 3: I don't like anything here. 399 00:20:11,680 --> 00:20:12,919 Speaker 2: What do you what do you think? 400 00:20:13,400 --> 00:20:16,600 Speaker 1: I'm with you? And again it's not that these guys 401 00:20:16,640 --> 00:20:20,159 Speaker 1: can't win MVP. I am not putting my money on 402 00:20:20,200 --> 00:20:22,760 Speaker 1: these dudes right now, in part because it's a long 403 00:20:22,800 --> 00:20:25,480 Speaker 1: way out and a part because like the guy that 404 00:20:25,520 --> 00:20:28,080 Speaker 1: I wanted to bet, whoever it is, Oh you know 405 00:20:28,119 --> 00:20:32,000 Speaker 1: who I like MVP this year? Maybe Stroud sophomore leap. 406 00:20:32,080 --> 00:20:34,359 Speaker 1: What if it's him, Well, guess what I have to 407 00:20:34,440 --> 00:20:37,040 Speaker 1: pay him as the third or the fourth favorite. Now, 408 00:20:37,480 --> 00:20:40,320 Speaker 1: so the book sniffed out the idea I had. It's gone, 409 00:20:40,400 --> 00:20:42,240 Speaker 1: Oh you know who I like? Who had a great 410 00:20:42,320 --> 00:20:45,800 Speaker 1: end of the season. Jordan Love My sleeper. Nope, not 411 00:20:45,880 --> 00:20:48,520 Speaker 1: a sleeper. He's got the fifth best odds, six best 412 00:20:48,560 --> 00:20:50,840 Speaker 1: odds on the board. So that's I think what we're 413 00:20:50,840 --> 00:20:54,040 Speaker 1: hating here is there are no sleeper odds. All the 414 00:20:54,119 --> 00:20:57,439 Speaker 1: guys that we wanted to bet as like a thirty 415 00:20:57,680 --> 00:21:01,080 Speaker 1: one or a forty one, are fifty in eighteen to one. 416 00:21:01,440 --> 00:21:05,560 Speaker 1: So again, we'll do the whole thing later we'll come 417 00:21:05,600 --> 00:21:08,640 Speaker 1: back in August. We'll do the whole MVP breakdown. These 418 00:21:08,680 --> 00:21:11,640 Speaker 1: are guys whose odds are too short to bet right now, 419 00:21:11,680 --> 00:21:14,320 Speaker 1: and by nature of there being a bunch of them 420 00:21:14,800 --> 00:21:18,040 Speaker 1: also reminds us that they're gonna have a bad week 421 00:21:18,160 --> 00:21:20,840 Speaker 1: on September twelfth, and they're gonna lose, and they're gonna 422 00:21:20,880 --> 00:21:24,240 Speaker 1: drop out of this twenty to one odds. And you know, okay, 423 00:21:24,359 --> 00:21:26,919 Speaker 1: you want a Dak Prescott, Well, great, the Cowboys are 424 00:21:27,000 --> 00:21:29,760 Speaker 1: zero and two. Now, Dak Prescott's forty to one. Now 425 00:21:29,800 --> 00:21:32,720 Speaker 1: you can buy Dak Prescott Scott stock later and build 426 00:21:32,760 --> 00:21:37,639 Speaker 1: your position. So again, long shots in May, you can't 427 00:21:37,640 --> 00:21:42,080 Speaker 1: be betting from this plethora of shortish odds dudes here. 428 00:21:42,160 --> 00:21:46,120 Speaker 1: So to me, I looked right past that list. I've 429 00:21:46,119 --> 00:21:48,280 Speaker 1: got two names from further down the list that I 430 00:21:48,320 --> 00:21:50,600 Speaker 1: do think are worth adding that you can't get later. 431 00:21:51,160 --> 00:21:54,800 Speaker 1: So let me start with one that we've heard plenty of, 432 00:21:54,920 --> 00:21:58,320 Speaker 1: we've talked a lot about over the years. Aaron Rodgers 433 00:21:58,480 --> 00:22:03,040 Speaker 1: twenty eight to one to an MVP. I just think 434 00:22:03,080 --> 00:22:07,080 Speaker 1: the number is too long. Listen, twenty eight to one 435 00:22:07,200 --> 00:22:11,160 Speaker 1: prices him in this group of people as MVP favorites 436 00:22:12,240 --> 00:22:17,919 Speaker 1: to a taga Ailoa, Matt Stafford Richardson, Kirk Cousins, a 437 00:22:18,119 --> 00:22:23,600 Speaker 1: running back and four time MVP. Aaron Rodgers. What are 438 00:22:23,600 --> 00:22:27,480 Speaker 1: we doing? Aaron Rodgers is a walking top ten offense 439 00:22:27,600 --> 00:22:30,200 Speaker 1: when he can walk. He couldn't last year. I hope 440 00:22:30,200 --> 00:22:33,440 Speaker 1: he can this year. For this bet. He's literally one 441 00:22:33,560 --> 00:22:37,359 Speaker 1: MVP two of his last three healthy seasons on the field. 442 00:22:38,240 --> 00:22:42,320 Speaker 1: He's coming back from a blown achilles at age forty 443 00:22:42,800 --> 00:22:46,040 Speaker 1: in New York for the New York Jets, who I 444 00:22:46,040 --> 00:22:48,760 Speaker 1: think are going to be good this year. If they are, 445 00:22:49,040 --> 00:22:52,280 Speaker 1: Rogers will be part of it. MVP is a narrative award. 446 00:22:52,840 --> 00:22:56,960 Speaker 1: What is the narrative better than blew out my achilles? 447 00:22:57,119 --> 00:23:00,520 Speaker 1: We thought his career might be over. Just kid came 448 00:23:00,600 --> 00:23:04,400 Speaker 1: back still top five quarterback clater at Green Bay. I'm 449 00:23:04,400 --> 00:23:07,440 Speaker 1: in a new location now, the Jets are great. We're 450 00:23:07,440 --> 00:23:11,800 Speaker 1: doing fine. It's New York. I'm on every single primetime game. 451 00:23:12,280 --> 00:23:14,760 Speaker 1: I'm Aaron Rodgers, baby, one of the best to ever 452 00:23:14,840 --> 00:23:18,800 Speaker 1: do it. Give me the fifth MVP. There's no reason 453 00:23:19,280 --> 00:23:23,080 Speaker 1: he should be getting priced as Kirk Cousins and to 454 00:23:23,240 --> 00:23:25,920 Speaker 1: a Tagavlo. I get out of here with that price. 455 00:23:27,520 --> 00:23:30,040 Speaker 3: I also feel like, I haven't seen the comeback player 456 00:23:30,040 --> 00:23:31,880 Speaker 3: of the year market yet, but it's almost like he's 457 00:23:31,920 --> 00:23:32,560 Speaker 3: too good for that. 458 00:23:32,960 --> 00:23:34,800 Speaker 1: Yeah, I think he's even odds for comeback Player of 459 00:23:34,800 --> 00:23:36,720 Speaker 1: the Year, right, it makes sense? So, yeah, it does 460 00:23:36,800 --> 00:23:40,080 Speaker 1: make a lot of sense to me. Again, this is 461 00:23:40,200 --> 00:23:43,399 Speaker 1: not a Brandon says Aaron Rodgers one MVP. That's not 462 00:23:43,440 --> 00:23:45,879 Speaker 1: what I'm saying. What I'm saying is you read that 463 00:23:46,240 --> 00:23:48,560 Speaker 1: list of dudes with odds twenty to one or shorter. 464 00:23:49,000 --> 00:23:52,080 Speaker 1: There's no reason unless I think Aaron Rodgers is just 465 00:23:52,240 --> 00:23:55,600 Speaker 1: like irreparably damaged and never gonna be able to play 466 00:23:55,600 --> 00:23:57,880 Speaker 1: football again, which I don't. We thought he might play 467 00:23:57,880 --> 00:24:01,119 Speaker 1: in December. Unless I think that, Why isn't he in 468 00:24:01,160 --> 00:24:04,280 Speaker 1: that list? Why isn't he in the list with Love 469 00:24:04,600 --> 00:24:07,359 Speaker 1: and with Dak and with Hurts and all those dudes. 470 00:24:08,320 --> 00:24:10,240 Speaker 1: I think he should belong on that list. That means 471 00:24:10,280 --> 00:24:12,800 Speaker 1: that his odds are like one thousand to one longer 472 00:24:13,160 --> 00:24:16,159 Speaker 1: than they should be here, so I think he should 473 00:24:16,480 --> 00:24:20,600 Speaker 1: move up the list into the group of not Patrick Mahomes's. 474 00:24:21,160 --> 00:24:23,640 Speaker 1: And then I looked a little further down the list. Okay, 475 00:24:24,240 --> 00:24:27,520 Speaker 1: who's a real sleeper, who's the real long shot here, 476 00:24:28,240 --> 00:24:30,040 Speaker 1: and I actually have mentioned his name a bunch of 477 00:24:30,040 --> 00:24:34,040 Speaker 1: times already. I think Kyler Murray at sixty to one 478 00:24:34,080 --> 00:24:38,480 Speaker 1: to ain MVP is priced way too far down the list. 479 00:24:38,560 --> 00:24:42,080 Speaker 1: So the last time we got a healthy Kyler Murray season, 480 00:24:42,119 --> 00:24:44,359 Speaker 1: it's been a minute. We haven't seen it for two 481 00:24:44,440 --> 00:24:47,200 Speaker 1: years now, but the last time we got it, at 482 00:24:47,200 --> 00:24:50,280 Speaker 1: the midpoint of the season, he was the favorite to 483 00:24:50,359 --> 00:24:53,840 Speaker 1: win MVP. He was the guy. Now, I don't think 484 00:24:53,840 --> 00:24:55,439 Speaker 1: he was going to win. I would have told you 485 00:24:55,480 --> 00:24:57,320 Speaker 1: to bet against it at the time, but he was 486 00:24:57,400 --> 00:25:00,680 Speaker 1: the betting favorite to win. And since then we got 487 00:25:00,680 --> 00:25:06,080 Speaker 1: a new real coaching staff. More Cliff Kingsbury slander. He's gone. 488 00:25:06,520 --> 00:25:08,960 Speaker 1: I like Drew Petsiing a lot the way he ran 489 00:25:09,040 --> 00:25:13,680 Speaker 1: this offense last year, with zero talent, no expectations, nothing happening. 490 00:25:14,080 --> 00:25:17,240 Speaker 1: They hit the Cowboys, you know they They were really 491 00:25:17,280 --> 00:25:19,960 Speaker 1: good last year early in the season, back half of 492 00:25:19,960 --> 00:25:22,879 Speaker 1: the season, when Kyler was out there playing, this was 493 00:25:22,960 --> 00:25:25,679 Speaker 1: the number one running team in football. Now, I know 494 00:25:26,200 --> 00:25:29,119 Speaker 1: that's not really helping the stats case for Kyler Murray, 495 00:25:29,640 --> 00:25:32,320 Speaker 1: but I think this offense could really be quite good. 496 00:25:32,800 --> 00:25:35,000 Speaker 1: I don't know about the defense, and if the defense 497 00:25:35,080 --> 00:25:38,000 Speaker 1: isn't great, don't I just get more shootouts and more stats, 498 00:25:38,040 --> 00:25:42,320 Speaker 1: more chances for Kyler to run and gone his healthy pace. 499 00:25:42,840 --> 00:25:45,080 Speaker 1: The first three seasons of his career, he was again 500 00:25:45,200 --> 00:25:48,560 Speaker 1: top top ten fantasy quarterback all three of those years. 501 00:25:49,000 --> 00:25:52,560 Speaker 1: Here's his pace forty two and fifty yards, twenty six 502 00:25:52,640 --> 00:25:55,600 Speaker 1: touchdowns by air, plus six hundred and fifty and seven 503 00:25:55,600 --> 00:25:59,000 Speaker 1: on the ground. Here's some other stats for you. Thirty 504 00:25:59,040 --> 00:26:02,480 Speaker 1: seven for by air, eight hundred and twenty and five 505 00:26:02,560 --> 00:26:05,800 Speaker 1: on the ground. That's Lamar Jackson. He just won MVP. 506 00:26:06,359 --> 00:26:09,320 Speaker 1: Those are the numbers Lamar Jackson put up, and caller 507 00:26:09,400 --> 00:26:12,600 Speaker 1: Murray clears those numbers by several hundred yards and a 508 00:26:12,640 --> 00:26:18,359 Speaker 1: few scores on his healthy pace. I so, Brandon, here's 509 00:26:18,400 --> 00:26:22,239 Speaker 1: where I came on this, How I got here. You 510 00:26:22,359 --> 00:26:28,200 Speaker 1: know about Seahawks Island. You know about Texans Island. I'm 511 00:26:28,359 --> 00:26:31,760 Speaker 1: already hunting my next island, and it just a little tease. 512 00:26:32,200 --> 00:26:35,480 Speaker 1: I'll be back in a future episode looking for islands. 513 00:26:36,119 --> 00:26:39,200 Speaker 1: I'm sort of kind of thinking about Cardinals Island. There's 514 00:26:39,240 --> 00:26:42,159 Speaker 1: a little something here I sort of like, and a 515 00:26:42,200 --> 00:26:44,520 Speaker 1: lot of it has to do with Kayler Murray. I 516 00:26:44,520 --> 00:26:47,560 Speaker 1: don't know exactly how how ready I am to build 517 00:26:47,640 --> 00:26:51,120 Speaker 1: on this island yet? But sixty to one Kyler Murray. 518 00:26:51,720 --> 00:26:55,120 Speaker 1: If anything goes right for Arizona, if there's any island 519 00:26:55,160 --> 00:26:58,480 Speaker 1: happening at all, Kyler has to be a huge part 520 00:26:58,480 --> 00:27:02,480 Speaker 1: of it. And again, isn't he a top ten quarterback 521 00:27:02,520 --> 00:27:05,119 Speaker 1: when healthy? I think we mostly think that we kind 522 00:27:05,119 --> 00:27:06,840 Speaker 1: of forget about him because he inn the ben healthy. 523 00:27:07,440 --> 00:27:09,879 Speaker 1: Why isn't he in that group? But dudes at twenty 524 00:27:09,960 --> 00:27:13,480 Speaker 1: to one odds or shorter, I see no reason to 525 00:27:13,520 --> 00:27:16,240 Speaker 1: believe a month end of the season, when he's playing 526 00:27:16,240 --> 00:27:18,240 Speaker 1: and looking good, why he wouldn't be in that mix? 527 00:27:18,320 --> 00:27:21,199 Speaker 1: And now we have a really long ticket at a 528 00:27:21,240 --> 00:27:23,320 Speaker 1: really nice number and a good way to add to 529 00:27:23,320 --> 00:27:24,080 Speaker 1: our portfolio. 530 00:27:25,040 --> 00:27:28,400 Speaker 3: This podcast is presented by BETMGM use bonus Code Action 531 00:27:28,480 --> 00:27:30,760 Speaker 3: when signing up to get up to fifteen hundred dollars 532 00:27:30,760 --> 00:27:33,360 Speaker 3: back in bonus bets if your first bet does not win. 533 00:27:33,520 --> 00:27:40,400 Speaker 3: For new users in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, 534 00:27:40,440 --> 00:27:45,000 Speaker 3: New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia, and Wyoming, 535 00:27:45,040 --> 00:27:47,960 Speaker 3: Bonus Code Action will give new users in North Carolina 536 00:27:48,240 --> 00:27:50,720 Speaker 3: one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets for betting 537 00:27:50,840 --> 00:27:53,760 Speaker 3: just five dollars. Terms and conditions apply, must be twenty 538 00:27:53,760 --> 00:27:59,800 Speaker 3: one plus gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler. Off 539 00:27:59,840 --> 00:28:02,399 Speaker 3: of that, let's transition, he did a lot of the 540 00:28:02,440 --> 00:28:04,880 Speaker 3: Cardinals already. I think we got your point on the Cardinals, 541 00:28:04,880 --> 00:28:06,760 Speaker 3: but teams, you're also looking to invest in, and you 542 00:28:06,800 --> 00:28:09,920 Speaker 3: tease this a second ago the Jets, which, by the way, 543 00:28:10,680 --> 00:28:13,639 Speaker 3: I just looked back at the schedule when Kyler was 544 00:28:13,680 --> 00:28:17,439 Speaker 3: the MVP front runner, Aaron Rodgers beat him head to 545 00:28:17,480 --> 00:28:20,120 Speaker 3: head and that's what gave the Cardinals their first loss 546 00:28:20,119 --> 00:28:22,160 Speaker 3: of the year, and that kind of propelled the Packers. 547 00:28:22,160 --> 00:28:23,560 Speaker 2: They went to seven and one that week. 548 00:28:23,560 --> 00:28:26,800 Speaker 3: But that was kind of the that changed the direction 549 00:28:27,080 --> 00:28:30,680 Speaker 3: of the Kyler Murray MVP front runner discussion because he 550 00:28:30,720 --> 00:28:32,720 Speaker 3: got beat by an elite quarterback and then Aaron Rodgers 551 00:28:32,760 --> 00:28:36,120 Speaker 3: went on to have a great finishing campaign that year. 552 00:28:36,440 --> 00:28:39,840 Speaker 1: So the Chiefs are number one in the AFC. Hooray, 553 00:28:39,960 --> 00:28:43,440 Speaker 1: we've really broken ground with that breaking news here. I 554 00:28:43,480 --> 00:28:45,880 Speaker 1: think the case for who's number two in the AFC 555 00:28:46,440 --> 00:28:49,600 Speaker 1: is really quite open. The teams that we knew were 556 00:28:49,640 --> 00:28:52,440 Speaker 1: in their mixed last year. I think all got notably 557 00:28:52,520 --> 00:28:56,400 Speaker 1: worse this year. Baltimore lost a bunch of dudes. Buffalo 558 00:28:56,560 --> 00:28:58,440 Speaker 1: lost a lot of talent, a lot of veterans are 559 00:28:58,480 --> 00:29:01,320 Speaker 1: not there anymore. Miami had to let some guys go, 560 00:29:01,520 --> 00:29:04,880 Speaker 1: a lot of salary cap issues. Cincinnati they're in the mix, 561 00:29:05,080 --> 00:29:08,640 Speaker 1: but they didn't make the playoffs last year. Houston is 562 00:29:08,680 --> 00:29:11,360 Speaker 1: the young They're coming from the other side. They're the 563 00:29:11,440 --> 00:29:14,120 Speaker 1: up and comers. I think that there is a real 564 00:29:14,200 --> 00:29:16,200 Speaker 1: gap though, from the Chiefs to the rest of the 565 00:29:16,240 --> 00:29:20,840 Speaker 1: other teams. When we are betting on long shots, you 566 00:29:20,880 --> 00:29:25,560 Speaker 1: are betting on outlier outcomes, not median outcomes. And that 567 00:29:25,720 --> 00:29:28,480 Speaker 1: is the key to betting on the New York Jets 568 00:29:28,520 --> 00:29:31,400 Speaker 1: right here. The median outcome, I want no part of 569 00:29:31,880 --> 00:29:35,600 Speaker 1: the median outcome for the Jets is laughing stock. They've 570 00:29:35,640 --> 00:29:39,640 Speaker 1: got eight different dudes who get hurt again things go awright. 571 00:29:41,120 --> 00:29:45,040 Speaker 1: What if Tyrone Smith Hall of Fame tackle plays like 572 00:29:45,040 --> 00:29:47,520 Speaker 1: a Hall of Fame tackle. The Jets had one of 573 00:29:47,520 --> 00:29:49,920 Speaker 1: the worst offensive lines in football last year, and Brandon, 574 00:29:50,000 --> 00:29:52,760 Speaker 1: you know, I start with the lines. What if we 575 00:29:52,840 --> 00:29:55,600 Speaker 1: have a lot better line here? So the line is good. 576 00:29:56,160 --> 00:29:58,640 Speaker 1: You got a top ten quarterback in Aaron Rodgers, whatever 577 00:29:58,720 --> 00:30:01,760 Speaker 1: version of that, we don't know. But again we're imagining outliers, 578 00:30:01,800 --> 00:30:04,680 Speaker 1: so we're getting we'll call it top five Rogers, Breese Hall, 579 00:30:04,760 --> 00:30:08,320 Speaker 1: everyone loves him, Garrett Wilson, everyone loves him. And now 580 00:30:08,680 --> 00:30:13,120 Speaker 1: Mike Williams, good receiver, big red zone target. The defense 581 00:30:13,360 --> 00:30:16,360 Speaker 1: is already great. We already know that they added Hassan Reddick, 582 00:30:16,400 --> 00:30:18,200 Speaker 1: a great pass rusher. Like I don't need to make 583 00:30:18,200 --> 00:30:21,400 Speaker 1: the case for the defense. Isn't it the best defense 584 00:30:21,520 --> 00:30:26,200 Speaker 1: in the AFC, probably in the division certainly? Why isn't 585 00:30:26,200 --> 00:30:28,720 Speaker 1: it the best offense in the division. Why isn't it 586 00:30:29,040 --> 00:30:31,800 Speaker 1: if things all go right, which we have to assume 587 00:30:31,880 --> 00:30:33,800 Speaker 1: right now. Everyone's healthy right now as far as we know. 588 00:30:33,840 --> 00:30:37,760 Speaker 1: It's may. If things are right, I think this team 589 00:30:37,800 --> 00:30:39,520 Speaker 1: has a good case as any to be the number 590 00:30:39,520 --> 00:30:42,480 Speaker 1: two team in the AFC. If you have a season 591 00:30:42,880 --> 00:30:46,920 Speaker 1: where you had the worst quarterback in a football situation 592 00:30:47,600 --> 00:30:50,960 Speaker 1: and one of the worst offensive line situations in football, 593 00:30:51,440 --> 00:30:54,600 Speaker 1: and you sell those out for a top five quarterback 594 00:30:54,640 --> 00:30:58,080 Speaker 1: maybe and a top five line, maybe, that's not even 595 00:30:58,120 --> 00:31:01,760 Speaker 1: in a comparison, Like you can't even I can't tell 596 00:31:01,800 --> 00:31:03,560 Speaker 1: you how big of a difference that that will make 597 00:31:03,600 --> 00:31:06,640 Speaker 1: to a team's outcome. And that's why I got to 598 00:31:06,680 --> 00:31:10,480 Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers MBP BET. I love Garrett Wilson Offensive Player 599 00:31:10,480 --> 00:31:13,640 Speaker 1: of the Year odds. He's forty to one. Receivers are 600 00:31:13,640 --> 00:31:16,360 Speaker 1: winning this award lately. I know it is McCaffery last year, 601 00:31:16,400 --> 00:31:19,160 Speaker 1: but it's usually looking like a receiver award. The top 602 00:31:19,200 --> 00:31:21,400 Speaker 1: guys and a lot of the odds are mostly receivers. 603 00:31:22,040 --> 00:31:24,680 Speaker 1: You don't want Aaron Rodgers clearing number one receiver. A 604 00:31:24,720 --> 00:31:27,760 Speaker 1: guy that's had really, really good metrics with like me 605 00:31:27,880 --> 00:31:30,880 Speaker 1: and you throwing him the football, Now he gets Aaron 606 00:31:30,960 --> 00:31:33,640 Speaker 1: Rodgers throwing him the football. I think I want that ticket. 607 00:31:33,640 --> 00:31:36,040 Speaker 1: I think it's gonna be half the price by the 608 00:31:36,080 --> 00:31:39,880 Speaker 1: time we get to the season. And again, long shots 609 00:31:39,960 --> 00:31:43,240 Speaker 1: in May, you need your Jets stock now, because I'll 610 00:31:43,240 --> 00:31:46,440 Speaker 1: tell you this, the prices are already fading. I wrote 611 00:31:46,480 --> 00:31:49,000 Speaker 1: about the Jets a month ago, and since then the 612 00:31:49,040 --> 00:31:51,080 Speaker 1: price is already starting to drop down a little bit 613 00:31:51,440 --> 00:31:55,360 Speaker 1: because people are liking the Jets. And if people like 614 00:31:55,400 --> 00:31:58,400 Speaker 1: the Jets, it's New York, it's the media. They're gonna 615 00:31:58,400 --> 00:32:02,440 Speaker 1: get talked about. The schedule comes out, the Jets on 616 00:32:02,480 --> 00:32:05,800 Speaker 1: my ranking of all the teams are one of the highest. Like, 617 00:32:05,960 --> 00:32:08,080 Speaker 1: they're gonna be in all the games, Brendan, They're gonna 618 00:32:08,080 --> 00:32:10,040 Speaker 1: be on Sunday night and Thursday night, and they're gonna 619 00:32:10,040 --> 00:32:13,239 Speaker 1: be in London. They're gonna be like Aaron Rodgers and 620 00:32:13,280 --> 00:32:15,280 Speaker 1: the Jets. They're gonna be on TV a lot. We're 621 00:32:15,320 --> 00:32:16,760 Speaker 1: gonna be watching a lot of them, we're gonna be 622 00:32:16,800 --> 00:32:20,800 Speaker 1: talking about them. And look at Michael very poorly, but 623 00:32:20,920 --> 00:32:23,640 Speaker 1: there is a lot to like about this team, and 624 00:32:23,800 --> 00:32:27,080 Speaker 1: if things go well, there's no reason it can't go 625 00:32:27,280 --> 00:32:30,320 Speaker 1: as well as anybody in the AFC. So I think 626 00:32:30,360 --> 00:32:33,400 Speaker 1: there's a spot to invest. Plus two forty in the division. 627 00:32:34,280 --> 00:32:36,320 Speaker 1: A little short for my taste as far as this 628 00:32:36,400 --> 00:32:38,920 Speaker 1: time of year, but certainly a ticket I'd want to 629 00:32:38,960 --> 00:32:41,960 Speaker 1: fill was August right now, fourteen to one to come 630 00:32:41,960 --> 00:32:44,240 Speaker 1: out of the AFC twenty eight to one, to win 631 00:32:44,280 --> 00:32:47,400 Speaker 1: the Super Bowl twenty eight to one. They're praising the 632 00:32:47,480 --> 00:32:51,520 Speaker 1: Jets equal to the Chargers and the Falcons. The Chargers 633 00:32:51,640 --> 00:32:54,560 Speaker 1: and the Falcons. Look at the roster, look at the talent. 634 00:32:54,720 --> 00:32:56,960 Speaker 1: What are we doing? This is a team that gave 635 00:32:57,000 --> 00:32:59,800 Speaker 1: me as good as anybody, And you're pricing me with 636 00:33:00,600 --> 00:33:03,240 Speaker 1: Justin Herbert and a bunch of losers on the Chargers 637 00:33:03,560 --> 00:33:05,840 Speaker 1: and then Kirk Cousins and Michael Pennix fighting in the 638 00:33:05,840 --> 00:33:07,920 Speaker 1: locker room, and then I get all the talent on 639 00:33:07,960 --> 00:33:09,760 Speaker 1: the Jets. Which one do I want? I want the Jets. 640 00:33:09,800 --> 00:33:15,200 Speaker 2: That's it, well said, that was good. I get it. 641 00:33:15,280 --> 00:33:16,960 Speaker 1: You gotta be riled up, Brandon, it's made. 642 00:33:17,440 --> 00:33:21,520 Speaker 3: Yeah, And like just go back and watch Hard Knocks 643 00:33:21,920 --> 00:33:24,400 Speaker 3: leading into last year, Like now, that was a lot 644 00:33:24,480 --> 00:33:26,640 Speaker 3: of public casual steam. 645 00:33:26,680 --> 00:33:28,080 Speaker 2: I think that came in on the Jets. 646 00:33:28,720 --> 00:33:31,560 Speaker 3: I know a lot of folks at Action Network dabbled 647 00:33:31,600 --> 00:33:33,360 Speaker 3: on the Jets to win the Super Bowl the minute 648 00:33:33,400 --> 00:33:34,680 Speaker 3: the deal went down when they. 649 00:33:34,640 --> 00:33:35,600 Speaker 2: Got Aaron Rodgers. 650 00:33:36,160 --> 00:33:39,320 Speaker 3: But even like just the discussions with Sala and the 651 00:33:39,360 --> 00:33:42,520 Speaker 3: staff and the connection with Garrett Wilson was a parent 652 00:33:42,560 --> 00:33:45,520 Speaker 3: which speaks to your pick for this coming year. And 653 00:33:45,560 --> 00:33:47,680 Speaker 3: then their lack of line play, and I was very 654 00:33:47,720 --> 00:33:51,080 Speaker 3: proud of the Jets to draft Vashanu and I'm not 655 00:33:51,080 --> 00:33:52,880 Speaker 3: even a Jets fan. It's like, Wow, they did the 656 00:33:52,920 --> 00:33:55,040 Speaker 3: mature thing. They didn't go after Bowers. They could have 657 00:33:55,080 --> 00:33:56,880 Speaker 3: had a Doon say they could have had another receiver. 658 00:33:57,280 --> 00:33:59,560 Speaker 3: They made the mature move and they didn't let the 659 00:33:59,640 --> 00:34:02,719 Speaker 3: quarterback if he wanted the weapon influenced them. They made 660 00:34:02,760 --> 00:34:04,760 Speaker 3: the mature move for their organization, never mind who their 661 00:34:04,840 --> 00:34:08,160 Speaker 3: quarterback is. Okay, so we did the Cardinals did the Jets. 662 00:34:08,200 --> 00:34:12,000 Speaker 3: There's another team in the NFC that you'd like to discuss, 663 00:34:13,000 --> 00:34:17,440 Speaker 3: the Philadelphia Eagles. After having a god awful December and 664 00:34:17,480 --> 00:34:20,800 Speaker 3: they fell off the map. Is that your Carson Wentz jersey. 665 00:34:22,239 --> 00:34:24,640 Speaker 1: Of course, that's the only Eagles jersey I own or 666 00:34:24,719 --> 00:34:28,240 Speaker 1: ever will own. I am not a Philadelphia sports person Brannan, 667 00:34:28,320 --> 00:34:30,680 Speaker 1: as you know, but I am a fan of making money, 668 00:34:30,680 --> 00:34:32,560 Speaker 1: and I think the Eagles are gonna make us the 669 00:34:32,600 --> 00:34:35,919 Speaker 1: money this year. To me again, after the Super Bowl, 670 00:34:36,320 --> 00:34:39,440 Speaker 1: I wrote about who are next year's Acts, Who are 671 00:34:39,440 --> 00:34:41,680 Speaker 1: next year's Chiefs, Who are next year's forty nine ers, 672 00:34:41,680 --> 00:34:45,320 Speaker 1: Who are next year the Lions. There's a world where 673 00:34:45,640 --> 00:34:47,879 Speaker 1: the Ravens win the Super Bowl that we just had, 674 00:34:48,239 --> 00:34:50,560 Speaker 1: and everyone wants to know who are next years Ravens. 675 00:34:50,600 --> 00:34:53,319 Speaker 1: They were the story of the regular season. They were 676 00:34:53,360 --> 00:34:56,839 Speaker 1: supposed to be the answer to the season. They were 677 00:34:56,880 --> 00:34:58,560 Speaker 1: the team that was supposed to be there at the end. 678 00:34:59,000 --> 00:35:00,640 Speaker 1: And if you look at the Ravens, what do they have? 679 00:35:01,440 --> 00:35:07,120 Speaker 1: Organizational stability, good drafting, trustworthy signings. This is what the 680 00:35:07,160 --> 00:35:09,680 Speaker 1: Eagles are. They went out, they had a great draft. 681 00:35:09,680 --> 00:35:12,560 Speaker 1: They brought in two corners Quenyon Mitchell Cooper de Gen 682 00:35:13,040 --> 00:35:15,800 Speaker 1: probably the top two man corners in the draft, adding 683 00:35:15,840 --> 00:35:18,520 Speaker 1: to a secondary that quite frankly, just got old and 684 00:35:18,520 --> 00:35:21,040 Speaker 1: it wasn't good anymore last year. The exact thing this 685 00:35:21,120 --> 00:35:24,080 Speaker 1: team needed, they kneeled it in the draft. They added 686 00:35:24,080 --> 00:35:28,600 Speaker 1: a couple linemen. They tend to draft quantity and quality, 687 00:35:28,760 --> 00:35:32,120 Speaker 1: throwing a couple of names at the pick. They added 688 00:35:32,120 --> 00:35:35,040 Speaker 1: a safety another spot that was week last year. So 689 00:35:35,040 --> 00:35:39,000 Speaker 1: that's another Baltimore thing. Baltimore ow was great in the trenches. 690 00:35:39,320 --> 00:35:42,160 Speaker 1: That's the Eagles. They focus everything on the winning on 691 00:35:42,200 --> 00:35:44,359 Speaker 1: the offensive line and the defensive line. Now I know 692 00:35:44,760 --> 00:35:47,840 Speaker 1: Kelsey is not there anymore, but Jeff Stoutlin, the offensive 693 00:35:47,880 --> 00:35:50,279 Speaker 1: line coach, is as good a positional coach as there is. 694 00:35:50,600 --> 00:35:53,400 Speaker 1: That line is ours a priority. It's gonna be good again. 695 00:35:53,840 --> 00:35:57,160 Speaker 1: The defensive line, they added Bryce Huff there. They're trying 696 00:35:57,160 --> 00:36:00,400 Speaker 1: to get younger, our guy Jalen Carter that can seated 697 00:36:00,520 --> 00:36:02,600 Speaker 1: Rookie of the Year, so we could win Will Anderson 698 00:36:02,680 --> 00:36:05,760 Speaker 1: He's gonna be really good next year. So again, trenches 699 00:36:05,800 --> 00:36:07,880 Speaker 1: are good there. And then the thing that I think 700 00:36:07,920 --> 00:36:09,960 Speaker 1: we want to focus a lot on with Baltimore is 701 00:36:10,560 --> 00:36:13,680 Speaker 1: they went out and and harbros still there, but they 702 00:36:13,680 --> 00:36:16,440 Speaker 1: got those new voices right. The story of the season 703 00:36:16,680 --> 00:36:21,399 Speaker 1: was Mike McDonald the awesome defensive coordinator, and then Todd 704 00:36:21,480 --> 00:36:24,600 Speaker 1: Munkin on offense just doing new things there. So what 705 00:36:24,640 --> 00:36:27,560 Speaker 1: did Philly do? They lost their coordinators a couple of 706 00:36:27,640 --> 00:36:30,400 Speaker 1: years ago after the Super Bowl, both became head coaches 707 00:36:30,960 --> 00:36:33,839 Speaker 1: and last year was a disaster. So the guys are gone. 708 00:36:33,960 --> 00:36:38,120 Speaker 1: Now Now is Kellen Moore running the offense? Now? Is 709 00:36:38,200 --> 00:36:40,920 Speaker 1: Vic Fangio running the defense? Nick Bangio? I don't need 710 00:36:40,960 --> 00:36:43,200 Speaker 1: to sell you on him like he's He's a legend 711 00:36:43,280 --> 00:36:44,680 Speaker 1: as far as defenses go. 712 00:36:45,040 --> 00:36:47,759 Speaker 2: In Miami, I thought last year. 713 00:36:48,080 --> 00:36:50,760 Speaker 1: Yeah, absolutely, Kellen Moore has done a great job. Also 714 00:36:51,280 --> 00:36:53,520 Speaker 1: didn't go great with the Chargers last year, but the 715 00:36:53,680 --> 00:36:55,719 Speaker 1: Eagles certainly know him, like he led a lot of 716 00:36:55,840 --> 00:36:58,879 Speaker 1: Dallas offenses for years. You know what you're getting there. 717 00:36:59,280 --> 00:37:02,360 Speaker 1: They also added Taquon Barkley, who I think is probably 718 00:37:02,360 --> 00:37:06,279 Speaker 1: a little bit overrated from draft expectation lore, but is 719 00:37:06,320 --> 00:37:09,399 Speaker 1: a home run threat that you got now Barkley can 720 00:37:09,440 --> 00:37:12,160 Speaker 1: take it to the house any play because you've got 721 00:37:12,239 --> 00:37:14,919 Speaker 1: Jalen Hurts the power run, you got a G. Brown 722 00:37:14,920 --> 00:37:17,320 Speaker 1: on one side, DeVante Smith on the other side. But 723 00:37:17,480 --> 00:37:20,399 Speaker 1: this is an offense that can run with anybody. It's 724 00:37:20,400 --> 00:37:23,320 Speaker 1: a defense that should be a lot better. And quite frankly, 725 00:37:23,400 --> 00:37:25,480 Speaker 1: I'm looking to fade the Cowboys. We'll come back to 726 00:37:25,640 --> 00:37:27,920 Speaker 1: that in the future episode too, but it's a very 727 00:37:28,000 --> 00:37:30,759 Speaker 1: last dance sort of feel about that team. That's all in, 728 00:37:30,880 --> 00:37:33,919 Speaker 1: they say and did nothing. They're just running it back 729 00:37:33,960 --> 00:37:36,279 Speaker 1: with the same retreads that fail every single year. 730 00:37:36,680 --> 00:37:39,799 Speaker 2: So going to get Bellichick that's why. Yeah, Jerry Jones 731 00:37:41,719 --> 00:37:42,680 Speaker 2: an Arty contract. 732 00:37:42,800 --> 00:37:46,320 Speaker 1: Yeah, so yeah. I just the Eagles to me and 733 00:37:46,400 --> 00:37:49,960 Speaker 1: the weaker NFC are a spot to invest again. Plus 734 00:37:49,960 --> 00:37:52,480 Speaker 1: one twenty five in the division, I think is is terrible. 735 00:37:52,560 --> 00:37:55,080 Speaker 1: I think any plus number is a great spot to 736 00:37:55,120 --> 00:37:57,839 Speaker 1: have Eagles stock. But it's a long ways out. Seven 737 00:37:57,960 --> 00:38:00,960 Speaker 1: fifty to win the NFC is seventeen hundred the Super Bowl. Again, 738 00:38:01,440 --> 00:38:03,759 Speaker 1: the odds are shifting a little bet. We've already lost 739 00:38:03,760 --> 00:38:05,600 Speaker 1: a little ground from a month ago and I wrote 740 00:38:05,600 --> 00:38:08,880 Speaker 1: about this, but still good there. Fifteen to one to 741 00:38:08,960 --> 00:38:11,200 Speaker 1: have the most wins. We just saw him do that 742 00:38:11,280 --> 00:38:13,440 Speaker 1: two years ago. That was a bet that we cashed 743 00:38:13,520 --> 00:38:16,600 Speaker 1: right here on this podcast. Nick Siriani Coach of the 744 00:38:16,640 --> 00:38:21,080 Speaker 1: Year forty to one. If the coaching story is what 745 00:38:21,120 --> 00:38:23,879 Speaker 1: it was with Baltimore last year, bringing on Kellen Moore 746 00:38:23,880 --> 00:38:27,120 Speaker 1: and Vic Fangio, he gets some credit, right, He's the 747 00:38:27,160 --> 00:38:30,000 Speaker 1: guy that brings in the new voices and gets everything going. 748 00:38:30,040 --> 00:38:33,560 Speaker 1: And man, Billy just won fourteen games. Again. They're always 749 00:38:33,600 --> 00:38:36,160 Speaker 1: right here back to the top. Like last year, we're 750 00:38:36,160 --> 00:38:38,759 Speaker 1: focusing on how badly things went for a month. The 751 00:38:38,760 --> 00:38:40,960 Speaker 1: Eagles are good. The Eagles are always good. They're always 752 00:38:40,960 --> 00:38:44,239 Speaker 1: in the mix. I think you want Eagle stock. It's 753 00:38:44,360 --> 00:38:46,800 Speaker 1: it's one of those like it's like telling you to 754 00:38:47,320 --> 00:38:50,160 Speaker 1: buy Apple stock, right, Like it's just gonna get more valuable. 755 00:38:50,320 --> 00:38:53,600 Speaker 1: It's just gonna only get more valuable in time, because 756 00:38:54,719 --> 00:38:56,759 Speaker 1: maybe not after that commercial that we should be the 757 00:38:57,080 --> 00:38:59,600 Speaker 1: after what just happened. But well, the Eagles are just 758 00:38:59,640 --> 00:39:01,680 Speaker 1: a bet on stability. And I like a lot of 759 00:39:01,680 --> 00:39:04,520 Speaker 1: the stuff there. I like what they've done. I just 760 00:39:04,560 --> 00:39:06,680 Speaker 1: have loved their offseason from a team that already was 761 00:39:06,760 --> 00:39:09,479 Speaker 1: good anyway. So it's definitely a team that I want 762 00:39:09,520 --> 00:39:12,000 Speaker 1: to have some positions on heading into the new season. 763 00:39:12,920 --> 00:39:16,160 Speaker 3: Similar to our discussion about Rogers, there is a comeback 764 00:39:16,160 --> 00:39:18,239 Speaker 3: player of the year market. If there was a comeback 765 00:39:18,280 --> 00:39:21,200 Speaker 3: coach of the year, Nick Sirianni could very well be 766 00:39:21,560 --> 00:39:23,839 Speaker 3: would be like up at the top of that board. Right. 767 00:39:24,560 --> 00:39:27,200 Speaker 1: So yeah, the narrative because because there was talk about 768 00:39:27,239 --> 00:39:30,400 Speaker 1: should should Nick Cianna Syriana get fired? Right right? So 769 00:39:30,480 --> 00:39:34,440 Speaker 1: suddenly suddenly you win thirteen fourteen games, is apparently not fired. 770 00:39:34,480 --> 00:39:36,880 Speaker 1: Apparently he's looking pretty good. So that's a good narrative 771 00:39:36,920 --> 00:39:39,759 Speaker 1: swing And see you're making the points for me again, Brendan. 772 00:39:41,719 --> 00:39:43,759 Speaker 3: Okay, lightning around a couple more and then we'll get 773 00:39:43,800 --> 00:39:47,880 Speaker 3: out of here. These are more running back, wide receiver centric. 774 00:39:48,040 --> 00:39:51,000 Speaker 3: These are this is the this again is the early 775 00:39:51,160 --> 00:39:54,439 Speaker 3: NFL long Shots episode. You're getting long here, Why don't 776 00:39:54,440 --> 00:39:55,839 Speaker 3: you throw a couple in and then we'll we'll get 777 00:39:55,840 --> 00:39:56,239 Speaker 3: out of here. 778 00:39:56,600 --> 00:39:59,200 Speaker 1: Yeah, we're long. So rushing leader is a market that 779 00:39:59,200 --> 00:40:01,400 Speaker 1: I've got my eye on. Here are the odds favorites 780 00:40:01,480 --> 00:40:04,319 Speaker 1: right now to lead the league in rushing yards, Christian McCaffrey, 781 00:40:04,600 --> 00:40:08,759 Speaker 1: Jonathan Taylor, Saquon Barkley, Breist Hall, Derrick Henry. That to 782 00:40:08,880 --> 00:40:11,239 Speaker 1: me reads like, Oh, I'm gonna want to invest in 783 00:40:11,239 --> 00:40:13,200 Speaker 1: this market because I don't believe in the favorites here. 784 00:40:13,200 --> 00:40:15,600 Speaker 1: Saquan and Henry. They're not gonna get enough touches on 785 00:40:15,640 --> 00:40:18,680 Speaker 1: those new teams to lead the league in rushing. McCaffrey. 786 00:40:18,719 --> 00:40:21,760 Speaker 1: We're not getting two healthy seasons from McCaffrey in a row. 787 00:40:22,080 --> 00:40:25,480 Speaker 1: So I'm already easily ruling out some of these options here. 788 00:40:25,480 --> 00:40:27,279 Speaker 1: So that tells me, Okay, look down the list. Who 789 00:40:27,320 --> 00:40:27,719 Speaker 1: do we like? 790 00:40:28,280 --> 00:40:28,400 Speaker 2: So? 791 00:40:28,440 --> 00:40:31,400 Speaker 1: Who won rushing title the last five years? Here's the 792 00:40:31,440 --> 00:40:34,640 Speaker 1: list starting from five years ago. Derrick Henry two years 793 00:40:34,680 --> 00:40:37,200 Speaker 1: in a row, then Taylor that's why he's on the list, 794 00:40:37,600 --> 00:40:42,040 Speaker 1: Josh Jacobs departed from the Raiders, and then McCaffrey usually 795 00:40:42,080 --> 00:40:45,200 Speaker 1: around fifteen hundred yards. So I've got two picks I 796 00:40:45,280 --> 00:40:48,960 Speaker 1: like here because they fit exactly that list. First one 797 00:40:49,040 --> 00:40:52,080 Speaker 1: is probably my favorite long shot on this entire episode, 798 00:40:52,680 --> 00:40:56,080 Speaker 1: Zamir White fifty to one to win the rushing titles. 799 00:40:56,160 --> 00:40:59,640 Speaker 1: Zamir White plays for the Raiders because I feel they 800 00:40:59,680 --> 00:41:01,799 Speaker 1: need to tell you which team these guys play for 801 00:41:01,960 --> 00:41:04,239 Speaker 1: on all three of these picks, because that's how far 802 00:41:04,320 --> 00:41:08,200 Speaker 1: down the board that we are. If you play fantasy football, 803 00:41:08,320 --> 00:41:11,160 Speaker 1: you know who Zamir White is because he was probably 804 00:41:11,200 --> 00:41:15,000 Speaker 1: on your winning fantasy team last season. Last four games 805 00:41:15,000 --> 00:41:18,800 Speaker 1: of the year, eighty four carries three hundred and ninety 806 00:41:18,800 --> 00:41:21,280 Speaker 1: seven yards, so one hundred yards a game, over twenty 807 00:41:21,320 --> 00:41:26,680 Speaker 1: carries a game. Antonio Pierce took over and said, smash mouth, 808 00:41:26,800 --> 00:41:29,600 Speaker 1: hard knocks, run the football. We're doing this the way 809 00:41:29,680 --> 00:41:31,799 Speaker 1: I like it, right, That's his style and that's the 810 00:41:31,800 --> 00:41:35,319 Speaker 1: coach they kept him. So why shouldn't I believe we're 811 00:41:35,320 --> 00:41:38,920 Speaker 1: gonna keep running Our star running back Jacobs was out. 812 00:41:39,000 --> 00:41:41,439 Speaker 1: Jacobs is gone now, So isn't it just Zamir White 813 00:41:41,560 --> 00:41:45,200 Speaker 1: leading Alexander Madison is on the depth chart. I'm a 814 00:41:45,280 --> 00:41:47,360 Speaker 1: Vikings fan and I've seen plenty of Madison. That is 815 00:41:47,400 --> 00:41:50,799 Speaker 1: not your lead running back, that's your backup. So Zamir White, 816 00:41:50,840 --> 00:41:52,319 Speaker 1: I think as a real chance to get like three 817 00:41:52,400 --> 00:41:55,879 Speaker 1: hundred carries for a run heavy run first offense whose 818 00:41:55,920 --> 00:41:59,759 Speaker 1: offensive line is definitely built for the run, whose core 819 00:41:59,880 --> 00:42:02,520 Speaker 1: back is Gardner Minshew. So it's not like we're gonna 820 00:42:02,560 --> 00:42:04,960 Speaker 1: light things up by the air. We're gonna get a 821 00:42:04,960 --> 00:42:07,200 Speaker 1: lot of rushing yards. If you take those four games 822 00:42:07,400 --> 00:42:10,160 Speaker 1: and past it out, that's three hundred and fifty carries 823 00:42:10,239 --> 00:42:14,279 Speaker 1: seventeen hundred yards for the season. Again, fifty to one. 824 00:42:14,360 --> 00:42:17,880 Speaker 1: We're down the board. I honestly, here's why I know 825 00:42:17,960 --> 00:42:20,520 Speaker 1: I like this one best. I had to look like 826 00:42:20,680 --> 00:42:22,400 Speaker 1: last night, like I found this week ago. I had 827 00:42:22,400 --> 00:42:24,160 Speaker 1: to look again last night and again this morning to 828 00:42:24,200 --> 00:42:26,439 Speaker 1: make sure the number hadn't disappeared. I had to check 829 00:42:26,480 --> 00:42:28,360 Speaker 1: the depth chart to make sure that there wasn't like 830 00:42:28,400 --> 00:42:30,960 Speaker 1: a different dude they drafted or signed. I was like, 831 00:42:31,080 --> 00:42:33,759 Speaker 1: why is he so far down here? I thought he 832 00:42:33,800 --> 00:42:36,800 Speaker 1: would be like seventh, eighth, tenth on the board of odds. 833 00:42:37,080 --> 00:42:39,640 Speaker 1: I don't know why he's fifty to one. So he's 834 00:42:39,719 --> 00:42:40,719 Speaker 1: my favorite pick here. 835 00:42:42,239 --> 00:42:43,880 Speaker 2: Okay, very good, samere what I mean? 836 00:42:43,920 --> 00:42:46,080 Speaker 3: He was like he was just on the losing like 837 00:42:46,160 --> 00:42:49,040 Speaker 3: Kyron Williams for the Rams was on that same kind 838 00:42:49,040 --> 00:42:50,799 Speaker 3: of path the back half of the year, but he 839 00:42:50,840 --> 00:42:52,640 Speaker 3: was on a contending team. He was just on the 840 00:42:52,640 --> 00:42:55,960 Speaker 3: bad team that played well that no one really had 841 00:42:56,000 --> 00:42:58,000 Speaker 3: interested because the Raiders were a dumpster fire. 842 00:42:58,200 --> 00:42:59,080 Speaker 2: Another running back. 843 00:42:59,239 --> 00:43:01,360 Speaker 3: So I think Samir White was the only one I 844 00:43:01,400 --> 00:43:02,960 Speaker 3: think you had to mention, at least for me. I mean, 845 00:43:03,000 --> 00:43:05,520 Speaker 3: the other two I'm pretty familiar with. But I do 846 00:43:05,600 --> 00:43:07,799 Speaker 3: remember last year doing a pod very much like this 847 00:43:07,920 --> 00:43:10,480 Speaker 3: with Raybond and a friend of the pod, Matthew Friedman, 848 00:43:10,480 --> 00:43:13,320 Speaker 3: and they were doing the most improved kind of got in. 849 00:43:13,400 --> 00:43:15,960 Speaker 2: Zamir White made their list, Justin Fields did too. But 850 00:43:16,000 --> 00:43:17,439 Speaker 2: anyway they got, they got a lot of the other guys. 851 00:43:17,520 --> 00:43:21,600 Speaker 3: Right, You're going to Pittsburgh for another running back rushing leader. 852 00:43:22,160 --> 00:43:24,359 Speaker 1: Yeah, and I'm going with the running back that's actually 853 00:43:24,400 --> 00:43:27,200 Speaker 1: good in Pittsburgh whose name is not Naji Harris is 854 00:43:27,320 --> 00:43:29,719 Speaker 1: Jalen Warren. We've talked about that a lot, Right, we 855 00:43:29,800 --> 00:43:31,200 Speaker 1: did that a lot of times. 856 00:43:30,920 --> 00:43:33,880 Speaker 3: On Naji Harris was on your fantasy team. You probably 857 00:43:33,920 --> 00:43:35,319 Speaker 3: didn't win or making a play. 858 00:43:35,719 --> 00:43:37,480 Speaker 1: Well, you might have because you might have been bad 859 00:43:37,560 --> 00:43:39,640 Speaker 1: enough to pick up Zamir White and then have him 860 00:43:39,640 --> 00:43:41,960 Speaker 1: at the end of the year and said Naji Harris. So, 861 00:43:42,160 --> 00:43:44,399 Speaker 1: Najia Harris usually gets like two hundred and fifty three 862 00:43:44,440 --> 00:43:47,000 Speaker 1: hundred carries, but three point nine yards per carry for 863 00:43:47,040 --> 00:43:49,840 Speaker 1: his career. Here's the key. They didn't pick up his 864 00:43:49,960 --> 00:43:53,359 Speaker 1: fifty year option. So that tells me we have made 865 00:43:53,360 --> 00:43:55,800 Speaker 1: our choice on you, Naji Harris. We are no longer 866 00:43:55,960 --> 00:43:59,600 Speaker 1: tied to the Naji Harris' future is business interesting. Jalen 867 00:43:59,680 --> 00:44:03,640 Speaker 1: Warren averages for his career five point one yards per carrie. 868 00:44:03,760 --> 00:44:06,919 Speaker 1: Now you can't just extrapolate that out. He's a smaller dude. 869 00:44:06,920 --> 00:44:08,640 Speaker 1: I don't know if you can necessarily handle a huge 870 00:44:08,680 --> 00:44:11,640 Speaker 1: carry load, but five yards of carry you don't need 871 00:44:11,680 --> 00:44:13,600 Speaker 1: three hundred yards five yards of carrie. Two hundred and 872 00:44:13,640 --> 00:44:17,440 Speaker 1: fifty carries. We're at twelve fifty now. And don't forget 873 00:44:17,440 --> 00:44:21,080 Speaker 1: the other name in Pittsburgh. That's new our guy, Arthur Smith. 874 00:44:21,480 --> 00:44:25,160 Speaker 1: Arthur Smith sucks as a head coach, really good as 875 00:44:25,200 --> 00:44:28,520 Speaker 1: an offensive coordinator. His teams in the last five years 876 00:44:28,880 --> 00:44:31,239 Speaker 1: have been top three in a rushing attempts and top 877 00:44:31,280 --> 00:44:34,279 Speaker 1: three in rushing yards three of the five. He was 878 00:44:34,360 --> 00:44:38,240 Speaker 1: the guy that led Derrick Henry to the rushing title 879 00:44:38,360 --> 00:44:40,600 Speaker 1: two of these five years. So this is my Derrick 880 00:44:40,640 --> 00:44:43,960 Speaker 1: Henry pick. It's Pittsburgh right. We're gonna play defense and 881 00:44:44,000 --> 00:44:46,319 Speaker 1: run the ball. This is what the Steelers always have 882 00:44:46,440 --> 00:44:49,680 Speaker 1: been and always will be. We got Russell Wilson and 883 00:44:49,840 --> 00:44:52,520 Speaker 1: Justin Fields, like you said, they're gonna hand the ball 884 00:44:52,560 --> 00:44:55,600 Speaker 1: off like I think he's just gonna be like, oh, 885 00:44:55,800 --> 00:44:58,000 Speaker 1: five thousand yards passing leader. That's what I want this, 886 00:44:58,080 --> 00:44:59,920 Speaker 1: you know, I want to hand the ball to Jalen Warren. 887 00:45:00,120 --> 00:45:02,600 Speaker 3: Well, and Russell Wilson was at his peak in Seattle. 888 00:45:02,680 --> 00:45:04,719 Speaker 3: You had a running game with Marshawn Lynch. So if 889 00:45:04,719 --> 00:45:07,279 Speaker 3: they're trying to get anything out of Russell this year 890 00:45:07,280 --> 00:45:10,480 Speaker 3: in a one year prove it kind of year, that 891 00:45:10,480 --> 00:45:11,879 Speaker 3: that bodes well too. 892 00:45:12,080 --> 00:45:14,720 Speaker 2: Just systematically exactly, it's. 893 00:45:14,760 --> 00:45:18,680 Speaker 1: Again one hundred to one. This is a bet on. Hey, 894 00:45:18,800 --> 00:45:21,200 Speaker 1: it's August tenth and they just announced, Hey, you know what, 895 00:45:21,239 --> 00:45:24,560 Speaker 1: we're watching preseason games. Jayden Warren's running with the starters. 896 00:45:24,640 --> 00:45:27,560 Speaker 1: Isn't that interesting? He's gotten twelve carries. Najia Harris didn't 897 00:45:27,560 --> 00:45:29,399 Speaker 1: played till the third quarter last night. Did you notice 898 00:45:29,440 --> 00:45:32,200 Speaker 1: that suddenly the odds flipped and suddenly Jayden Warren's like 899 00:45:32,239 --> 00:45:34,600 Speaker 1: twenty to one, and Nowgie Harris is getting one hundred 900 00:45:34,640 --> 00:45:36,320 Speaker 1: to one, which is I think how it should be priced. 901 00:45:36,600 --> 00:45:38,319 Speaker 1: That's what we're looking for here. We're just looking to 902 00:45:38,400 --> 00:45:40,719 Speaker 1: nibble a little bit. My last guy on the list 903 00:45:40,760 --> 00:45:42,920 Speaker 1: is another one hundred to one. It's a receiving yards 904 00:45:42,920 --> 00:45:47,000 Speaker 1: a leader for our producer Matt Mitchell from his Buffalo Bills. 905 00:45:47,400 --> 00:45:50,440 Speaker 1: Gimme Khalil Shakir, who was good at the end of 906 00:45:50,480 --> 00:45:53,120 Speaker 1: the season, right, he was really good as Stefan Diggs 907 00:45:53,120 --> 00:45:56,400 Speaker 1: started to kind of fall out of favor there. But 908 00:45:56,719 --> 00:46:01,080 Speaker 1: again looking at history twenty twenty, the bubble year, Stefan 909 00:46:01,080 --> 00:46:03,239 Speaker 1: Diggs led the league in receiving yards fifteen hundred and 910 00:46:03,239 --> 00:46:06,480 Speaker 1: thirty five yards that year. Two seasons ago fourteen hundred 911 00:46:06,480 --> 00:46:09,440 Speaker 1: and twenty nine yards. So we have history of of 912 00:46:09,560 --> 00:46:12,560 Speaker 1: one target in Buffalo getting a lot of targets and 913 00:46:12,640 --> 00:46:15,759 Speaker 1: a lot of yards. Digs for the last four years 914 00:46:15,760 --> 00:46:18,560 Speaker 1: in Buffalo average one hundred and eleven catches thirteen hundred 915 00:46:18,600 --> 00:46:21,760 Speaker 1: and forty three yards. He gone, gave Davis, he gone. 916 00:46:21,800 --> 00:46:26,480 Speaker 1: There's nobody left here. It's Khalil Shakir, It's Curtis Samuel 917 00:46:26,520 --> 00:46:28,680 Speaker 1: who is just gonna be like a third guy, and 918 00:46:28,680 --> 00:46:31,960 Speaker 1: it's Kean Coleman. Top pick of the second round, I 919 00:46:32,000 --> 00:46:34,520 Speaker 1: think probably the touchdown leader on the team. He's got 920 00:46:34,560 --> 00:46:36,759 Speaker 1: good size. I don't think he's gonna be putting up 921 00:46:36,760 --> 00:46:39,000 Speaker 1: a lot of yards or stretching the defense here. Now 922 00:46:39,080 --> 00:46:41,680 Speaker 1: look Dalon Kink Dawson Knox. They're probably like the real 923 00:46:41,760 --> 00:46:45,560 Speaker 1: quote number ones on this team in most scenarios. Shakira's 924 00:46:45,640 --> 00:46:48,279 Speaker 1: really good if you look at him when they switch 925 00:46:48,320 --> 00:46:50,640 Speaker 1: from Ken Dorsey to Joe Brady. Last year he went. 926 00:46:50,719 --> 00:46:53,160 Speaker 1: Shakiro went from under twenty five snaps a game to 927 00:46:53,200 --> 00:46:56,719 Speaker 1: over fifty eight game and he finished the year at 928 00:46:56,840 --> 00:47:00,440 Speaker 1: zero point eight nine EPA per target among all receiver. 929 00:47:00,560 --> 00:47:03,120 Speaker 1: Is that ranked number one? The rest of the top 930 00:47:03,160 --> 00:47:07,880 Speaker 1: ten is like Tyreek Hillpuknakua, Cee Lamb, Nico Collins, Brandon Ayuk, 931 00:47:08,320 --> 00:47:11,040 Speaker 1: go up the list. Khalil Shakir, Now it's again, it's 932 00:47:11,080 --> 00:47:13,799 Speaker 1: sample size, Like, let's not let's not pretend he's gonna 933 00:47:13,880 --> 00:47:17,759 Speaker 1: suddenly be the next superstar receiver. Josh Allen's gonna throw 934 00:47:17,800 --> 00:47:20,080 Speaker 1: the ball to somebody. Somebody's got to catch some passes 935 00:47:20,080 --> 00:47:22,719 Speaker 1: and get some yards. This is again, this is the 936 00:47:22,760 --> 00:47:26,439 Speaker 1: guy to me, that's like fantasy sleeper. Everyone's buzzing about 937 00:47:26,480 --> 00:47:29,759 Speaker 1: Khalil Shakir. Just see the preseason game. Two catches, one 938 00:47:29,840 --> 00:47:32,560 Speaker 1: hundred and thirty yards and a score. Holy cow, Khalil 939 00:47:32,560 --> 00:47:35,440 Speaker 1: Shakir trying to catch lightning in a bottle. This is 940 00:47:35,480 --> 00:47:37,920 Speaker 1: my one more chance to catch some lightning. He's fast, 941 00:47:37,960 --> 00:47:40,680 Speaker 1: so let's get a little lightning from Khalil Shakir. Exact 942 00:47:40,760 --> 00:47:44,200 Speaker 1: same size, body, of weight, height as Stefan Digs too. 943 00:47:44,840 --> 00:47:47,439 Speaker 1: Why not Stefan Diggs was like a fifth round pick again, 944 00:47:47,560 --> 00:47:50,680 Speaker 1: Viking Span, I know my guy Digs. Why not Khalil Shakir? 945 00:47:51,040 --> 00:47:52,680 Speaker 1: Why not? Another one hundred to one To end our 946 00:47:52,760 --> 00:47:54,640 Speaker 1: long Shots episode. 947 00:47:55,880 --> 00:47:58,239 Speaker 2: Brandon Anderson, you have a way, my friend. You are 948 00:47:58,239 --> 00:47:58,880 Speaker 2: a machine. 949 00:47:59,200 --> 00:48:01,440 Speaker 3: And now I want spring to be over and I 950 00:48:01,480 --> 00:48:04,920 Speaker 3: want training camp to get here. Great stuff, Brandon Anderson. 951 00:48:04,960 --> 00:48:07,880 Speaker 3: Find him in the Action Network app. We will return 952 00:48:08,000 --> 00:48:10,840 Speaker 3: to the Action Network podcast this week for our Preakness 953 00:48:10,840 --> 00:48:14,719 Speaker 3: Stakes episode that comes out Thursday morning, along with our 954 00:48:14,840 --> 00:48:20,040 Speaker 3: weekly traditional UFC episode on Friday. And next week Brandon 955 00:48:20,080 --> 00:48:23,719 Speaker 3: and I will be back covering NFL Playoff underdogs along 956 00:48:23,760 --> 00:48:27,440 Speaker 3: with the return of Stucky and Raybond talking NFL win totals, 957 00:48:27,440 --> 00:48:31,280 Speaker 3: So get excited for that. Yes, we are dabbling into 958 00:48:31,320 --> 00:48:33,799 Speaker 3: more NFL because, as I was saying off the air 959 00:48:33,800 --> 00:48:36,400 Speaker 3: a second before we started the pod, the NFL is 960 00:48:36,440 --> 00:48:38,880 Speaker 3: such a giant now that they are now doing announcements 961 00:48:39,040 --> 00:48:40,920 Speaker 3: about the announcement of the schedule. 962 00:48:41,239 --> 00:48:41,960 Speaker 2: That is where they are. 963 00:48:42,040 --> 00:48:45,160 Speaker 3: That's where we're at as the machine that is Brandon 964 00:48:45,200 --> 00:48:47,560 Speaker 3: Anderson and the machine that is the National Football League. 965 00:48:47,800 --> 00:48:50,399 Speaker 2: Thanks so much for listening for Brandon Anderson, Brandan glass Sheen. 966 00:48:50,640 --> 00:48:51,560 Speaker 2: We'll catch you next time. 967 00:48:51,600 --> 00:49:04,560 Speaker 3: Here are the Action Network podcast presented by BETMGM. Action 968 00:49:04,719 --> 00:49:07,719 Speaker 3: Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. 969 00:49:08,120 --> 00:49:10,960 Speaker 2: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, 970 00:49:11,239 --> 00:49:14,240 Speaker 2: help is available twenty four seven at one eight hundred 971 00:49:14,280 --> 00:49:14,720 Speaker 2: Gambler