1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:13,760 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg 2 00:00:13,840 --> 00:00:17,920 Speaker 1: Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern 3 00:00:18,200 --> 00:00:22,000 Speaker 1: on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. 4 00:00:22,360 --> 00:00:25,680 Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch 5 00:00:25,760 --> 00:00:27,040 Speaker 1: us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:27,280 --> 00:00:29,680 Speaker 2: Krubman's aging he's gone from the New York Times of 7 00:00:29,800 --> 00:00:32,920 Speaker 2: substack and what's he doing? Dials one eight hundred Meal 8 00:00:33,000 --> 00:00:35,400 Speaker 2: Dutta because he wants to find out what a god's 9 00:00:35,479 --> 00:00:39,319 Speaker 2: name is going on Macro Research's renaissance. Macro joins us 10 00:00:39,720 --> 00:00:42,640 Speaker 2: right now, neildt it as well. I want to know, 11 00:00:42,760 --> 00:00:45,080 Speaker 2: I think everybody in the racket. You were my Economist 12 00:00:45,120 --> 00:00:47,400 Speaker 2: of the Year three years ago. You're sitting by the 13 00:00:47,440 --> 00:00:50,640 Speaker 2: bat phone and the Krugman calls up. 14 00:00:50,920 --> 00:00:51,720 Speaker 3: What is that like? 15 00:00:52,920 --> 00:00:55,440 Speaker 4: I mean, I was shocked. I mean, obviously you know 16 00:00:55,480 --> 00:00:57,960 Speaker 4: Tom as you know, I'm just a lowly business economist. 17 00:00:58,360 --> 00:01:01,480 Speaker 4: So to have someone of his stature in the field 18 00:01:02,440 --> 00:01:04,920 Speaker 4: talk to me was, you know, really cool? I mean, 19 00:01:04,959 --> 00:01:07,399 Speaker 4: and he was the nicest guy as not as cutting 20 00:01:07,440 --> 00:01:10,320 Speaker 4: as is written pros that you know that we're all 21 00:01:10,400 --> 00:01:13,920 Speaker 4: used to, so, you know, really the nicest guy. And 22 00:01:14,080 --> 00:01:16,839 Speaker 4: it was just great to talk to him. So yeah, 23 00:01:16,840 --> 00:01:18,760 Speaker 4: I mean, it was always very willing to listen to 24 00:01:18,800 --> 00:01:20,360 Speaker 4: what I had to hear what I said. 25 00:01:20,640 --> 00:01:22,800 Speaker 3: I let's get a Krugman update right now. 26 00:01:22,959 --> 00:01:26,480 Speaker 2: Nominal GDP the combination of real GDP and inflation. You 27 00:01:26,480 --> 00:01:29,480 Speaker 2: look at it, Atlanta GDP. I'm almost framing out a 28 00:01:29,520 --> 00:01:31,360 Speaker 2: negative nominal GDP, which I. 29 00:01:31,280 --> 00:01:34,000 Speaker 3: Know you're going to say is wrong. Where is our 30 00:01:34,040 --> 00:01:35,560 Speaker 3: nominal GDP forward? 31 00:01:36,560 --> 00:01:39,360 Speaker 4: Well, right now, I think nominal GDP's running below four percent. 32 00:01:40,400 --> 00:01:43,440 Speaker 4: If you look at the compensation data that was released, 33 00:01:43,440 --> 00:01:46,880 Speaker 4: the personal income and spending numbers that were released last week. 34 00:01:47,520 --> 00:01:49,920 Speaker 4: We're in a situation now where private sector wage and 35 00:01:49,920 --> 00:01:52,800 Speaker 4: salary growth is barely running three percent and the Fed 36 00:01:52,840 --> 00:01:55,200 Speaker 4: funds rate is over a percentage point above that. So 37 00:01:55,240 --> 00:01:59,280 Speaker 4: whenever you have incomes running below the rate of overnight 38 00:01:59,320 --> 00:02:03,080 Speaker 4: Fed funds, say sure sign that monetary policy is too tight. 39 00:02:03,400 --> 00:02:07,800 Speaker 4: And so we got more confirmation of that last Friday. 40 00:02:08,880 --> 00:02:10,760 Speaker 5: All right, let's do the math here. I got a 41 00:02:10,880 --> 00:02:14,520 Speaker 5: I think it's Liberation Day on Wednesday. What's the math. 42 00:02:15,760 --> 00:02:16,399 Speaker 6: Mean to you? 43 00:02:16,480 --> 00:02:16,560 Speaker 3: Like? 44 00:02:16,639 --> 00:02:18,080 Speaker 5: What are the numbers mean to you? Do I need 45 00:02:18,080 --> 00:02:19,960 Speaker 5: to pay attention to this stuff. I know it's headlines. 46 00:02:19,960 --> 00:02:24,160 Speaker 4: But well, I don't think anyone really knows what any 47 00:02:24,200 --> 00:02:27,400 Speaker 4: of this means. So I think the journals reporting today 48 00:02:27,440 --> 00:02:30,320 Speaker 4: that they're talking about a universal twenty percent tariff, which 49 00:02:30,880 --> 00:02:32,720 Speaker 4: I think would raise about three close to three and 50 00:02:32,760 --> 00:02:38,720 Speaker 4: a half trillion over ten years. So remember during his confirmation, 51 00:02:38,880 --> 00:02:42,720 Speaker 4: Secretary Bessett talked about the various ways that tariffs could 52 00:02:42,720 --> 00:02:44,840 Speaker 4: be used, right. I mean one would be like sort 53 00:02:44,840 --> 00:02:48,440 Speaker 4: of a negotiation. Another way is sort of to get 54 00:02:48,880 --> 00:02:55,119 Speaker 4: Another way that he talked about it was basically revenue source, right, 55 00:02:55,200 --> 00:02:57,880 Speaker 4: I mean a revenue source to pay for you know, 56 00:02:58,120 --> 00:03:01,120 Speaker 4: extending tax legislation and so forth. And if they're talking 57 00:03:01,200 --> 00:03:07,280 Speaker 4: more about universal tariffs, it's clear they're moving away from 58 00:03:07,360 --> 00:03:11,440 Speaker 4: this sort of like let's negotiate lower tariffs across the board, right, 59 00:03:11,480 --> 00:03:13,520 Speaker 4: sort of escalate to de escalate and instead of move 60 00:03:13,600 --> 00:03:15,760 Speaker 4: more towards a pay for mechanism. 61 00:03:15,840 --> 00:03:18,040 Speaker 2: I went back to a twenty eighteen essay at Paul 62 00:03:18,120 --> 00:03:21,760 Speaker 2: Krug been very wonkish, and he skewers in twenty eighteen 63 00:03:21,760 --> 00:03:25,359 Speaker 2: Peter Navarro. Peter Navarro's driving the tariff dialogue at the 64 00:03:25,400 --> 00:03:29,560 Speaker 2: White House. Right now, who's pushing back against Navarro? There's 65 00:03:29,600 --> 00:03:32,120 Speaker 2: no Gary Cohne that I see there. Now, Is it 66 00:03:32,120 --> 00:03:36,280 Speaker 2: the Secretary Treasury who's pushing back against tariffs back to 67 00:03:36,320 --> 00:03:37,400 Speaker 2: the nineteen forties? 68 00:03:39,080 --> 00:03:42,200 Speaker 4: I mean, I think Tom, I mean, my sense of 69 00:03:42,200 --> 00:03:46,960 Speaker 4: it is is that having some belief in tariffs as 70 00:03:46,960 --> 00:03:51,640 Speaker 4: a tool of policy is the price of admission in 71 00:03:51,680 --> 00:03:55,720 Speaker 4: the administration. So at some level all of them agree 72 00:03:55,760 --> 00:03:58,400 Speaker 4: with Trump and they're very they're less likely to push back. 73 00:03:58,440 --> 00:04:00,000 Speaker 3: Where's your unemployment rate right now? 74 00:04:00,120 --> 00:04:02,480 Speaker 2: I mean, I'm on the debate that the FED is 75 00:04:02,520 --> 00:04:06,400 Speaker 2: shifted over to a labor dialogue. Does Neil Datta have 76 00:04:06,440 --> 00:04:09,520 Speaker 2: an unemployment rate out year in that can give pause? 77 00:04:11,000 --> 00:04:12,840 Speaker 4: I think what's important is that the FED has a 78 00:04:12,840 --> 00:04:14,960 Speaker 4: forecast of four point four percent I think for the 79 00:04:15,040 --> 00:04:17,160 Speaker 4: end of the year. We may well be there by 80 00:04:17,160 --> 00:04:17,800 Speaker 4: the middle. 81 00:04:17,520 --> 00:04:17,920 Speaker 3: Of the year. 82 00:04:18,000 --> 00:04:21,480 Speaker 4: And so if you're if we're getting to those year 83 00:04:21,520 --> 00:04:24,400 Speaker 4: and forecasts a couple of quarters ahead of schedule, the likelihood, 84 00:04:24,440 --> 00:04:26,280 Speaker 4: I think is that they start to pull in some 85 00:04:26,320 --> 00:04:28,400 Speaker 4: of the rate cuts that they have in twenty twenty 86 00:04:28,440 --> 00:04:29,840 Speaker 4: six into the current year. 87 00:04:30,320 --> 00:04:33,400 Speaker 5: You know, one of the points from the administration is 88 00:04:33,640 --> 00:04:36,080 Speaker 5: near term pain for longer term gain, and I guess 89 00:04:36,080 --> 00:04:39,720 Speaker 5: longer term gain is more manufacturing on shore here in 90 00:04:39,720 --> 00:04:42,680 Speaker 5: the US. How about the auto industry. That seems like 91 00:04:43,400 --> 00:04:46,479 Speaker 5: one that could happen, but that takes time. 92 00:04:46,520 --> 00:04:48,200 Speaker 4: I would think, right, well, this is one of the 93 00:04:48,240 --> 00:04:50,960 Speaker 4: reasons why I think you have to make the assumption 94 00:04:51,040 --> 00:04:53,960 Speaker 4: that they're moving off tariffs as a negotiating mechanism, because 95 00:04:53,960 --> 00:04:55,960 Speaker 4: at some level you have to keep them on in 96 00:04:56,080 --> 00:05:00,159 Speaker 4: order to force changes in factory capacity. That takes time. 97 00:05:00,200 --> 00:05:03,200 Speaker 4: So if people think it's just a temporary negotiating tool, 98 00:05:03,320 --> 00:05:04,919 Speaker 4: they're not going to actually want to put in the 99 00:05:04,960 --> 00:05:07,640 Speaker 4: investment to make, you know, to bring more final assembly 100 00:05:07,960 --> 00:05:11,800 Speaker 4: to the to the US. So yeah, I mean, I 101 00:05:11,839 --> 00:05:14,960 Speaker 4: don't know about long term gain. You know, I do 102 00:05:15,040 --> 00:05:18,000 Speaker 4: think that there's you know, you think about what's happening 103 00:05:18,040 --> 00:05:20,400 Speaker 4: in the markets with with a lot of these auto companies. 104 00:05:21,880 --> 00:05:24,680 Speaker 4: They can't see it just yet clearly investors. 105 00:05:25,080 --> 00:05:28,360 Speaker 5: So how do you think about I guess the retaliatory tariffs. 106 00:05:28,360 --> 00:05:30,279 Speaker 5: I mean, most of our trading partner talking is to 107 00:05:30,360 --> 00:05:32,279 Speaker 5: just sit there and take it. I would suspect that 108 00:05:33,000 --> 00:05:35,080 Speaker 5: they're going to step up and. 109 00:05:35,600 --> 00:05:37,840 Speaker 4: Look, this is this is what you this is. I mean, 110 00:05:38,440 --> 00:05:42,240 Speaker 4: I'm not a trade expert. I'm not I'm not Michael Pettis. 111 00:05:42,600 --> 00:05:44,440 Speaker 4: But what I will say is one of the things 112 00:05:44,480 --> 00:05:50,120 Speaker 4: you learn in any sort of I think introductory international 113 00:05:50,160 --> 00:05:54,440 Speaker 4: trade course in like a prisoner's dilemma type game. If 114 00:05:54,680 --> 00:05:58,760 Speaker 4: one person does tariffs, usually the other party puts on 115 00:05:58,800 --> 00:06:01,400 Speaker 4: the tariffs, and then you have the worst case outcome, right, 116 00:06:01,440 --> 00:06:04,200 Speaker 4: I mean, there's a retaliation, and so this sort of 117 00:06:04,240 --> 00:06:06,560 Speaker 4: tit for tat is what is what is concerning and 118 00:06:07,880 --> 00:06:10,400 Speaker 4: you know, I mean that's kind of where we are. 119 00:06:10,920 --> 00:06:13,279 Speaker 2: So much of this is the X axis. You mentioned 120 00:06:13,279 --> 00:06:16,640 Speaker 2: the four box prisoner's lemo. Okay, fine, but also it's 121 00:06:16,640 --> 00:06:18,920 Speaker 2: got to run across a time continual. We mentioned this 122 00:06:19,040 --> 00:06:22,359 Speaker 2: an hour ago. Everything short term, short term, the market, 123 00:06:22,400 --> 00:06:24,840 Speaker 2: short term, the show is short term. Neil dutt is 124 00:06:24,839 --> 00:06:28,440 Speaker 2: trying to go long term. Where's the horizon the president's 125 00:06:28,520 --> 00:06:31,799 Speaker 2: talking about? The President says he's going to make America 126 00:06:31,920 --> 00:06:35,560 Speaker 2: great again? In that is that out that manufacturing pick 127 00:06:35,640 --> 00:06:38,760 Speaker 2: up Paul mentioned? Is it out one year or is 128 00:06:38,800 --> 00:06:40,719 Speaker 2: it out four or five years? 129 00:06:42,360 --> 00:06:43,880 Speaker 6: Well, I mean I don't know, Tom. 130 00:06:43,920 --> 00:06:46,280 Speaker 4: I sort of reject the premise that this this sort 131 00:06:46,279 --> 00:06:49,840 Speaker 4: of approach will make the country a greater grand I mean, 132 00:06:49,880 --> 00:06:52,480 Speaker 4: I understand the need to kind of you know, for 133 00:06:52,640 --> 00:06:55,679 Speaker 4: security purposes. You know, you want to have a strong 134 00:06:55,720 --> 00:06:59,000 Speaker 4: manufacturing base. I think going after China makes a lot 135 00:06:59,040 --> 00:07:02,000 Speaker 4: of sense. But you know, just think about it at 136 00:07:02,040 --> 00:07:04,240 Speaker 4: the most basic level. I mean, if every state was 137 00:07:04,279 --> 00:07:06,919 Speaker 4: operating as its own country with their own trade policies, 138 00:07:06,960 --> 00:07:09,680 Speaker 4: do you think that better? You know that more prosperity 139 00:07:09,680 --> 00:07:11,320 Speaker 4: would result as that way? 140 00:07:11,720 --> 00:07:14,720 Speaker 3: What or agy and get we had two percent three percent? 141 00:07:14,720 --> 00:07:17,560 Speaker 2: There's somebody's got a beautiful bar chart out where we're 142 00:07:17,600 --> 00:07:21,520 Speaker 2: bombing ourselves. We don't know, but peers, we're bombing ourselves 143 00:07:21,920 --> 00:07:24,880 Speaker 2: back to the nineteen thirties of the nineteen forties. My 144 00:07:25,000 --> 00:07:28,600 Speaker 2: answer is what we ticked five percent unemployment? We get 145 00:07:28,680 --> 00:07:32,239 Speaker 2: a new run rate of unemployment four point x percent 146 00:07:32,600 --> 00:07:35,720 Speaker 2: or maybe months are here at a five percent unemployment. 147 00:07:35,240 --> 00:07:38,320 Speaker 4: Right, I mean you may have higher unemployment, but you'd 148 00:07:38,320 --> 00:07:41,600 Speaker 4: also probably have somewhat higher inflation and weaker productivity growth 149 00:07:41,680 --> 00:07:43,840 Speaker 4: and over over time, I mean that you know, weaker 150 00:07:43,880 --> 00:07:46,400 Speaker 4: productivity compounds, and so that would over you know, that 151 00:07:46,440 --> 00:07:48,360 Speaker 4: would that would hurt our longer own living standards as 152 00:07:48,400 --> 00:07:52,720 Speaker 4: a result. So you know, I think that they're like anything, 153 00:07:52,720 --> 00:07:55,720 Speaker 4: there's balanced. There's no such thing as free trade, all 154 00:07:55,760 --> 00:08:00,600 Speaker 4: trade is managed across countries, right. But I think there's 155 00:08:00,640 --> 00:08:03,400 Speaker 4: a way to do it right, and there's a way 156 00:08:03,440 --> 00:08:05,040 Speaker 4: to do it in a haphazard way. And I think 157 00:08:05,040 --> 00:08:09,720 Speaker 4: we have the latter inflation. Uh, what's your call on inflation? 158 00:08:09,880 --> 00:08:12,080 Speaker 4: Is just going to accelerate inflation? And if so, to 159 00:08:12,120 --> 00:08:12,679 Speaker 4: what level? 160 00:08:13,320 --> 00:08:13,680 Speaker 3: I think? 161 00:08:15,160 --> 00:08:17,760 Speaker 4: I think the growth consequences of what's going on are 162 00:08:17,840 --> 00:08:21,480 Speaker 4: much more important than than than the inflation consequences. I mean, ultimately, 163 00:08:21,480 --> 00:08:26,600 Speaker 4: in my view, inflation comes down to the household's budget constraint. 164 00:08:26,840 --> 00:08:29,120 Speaker 4: And the household's budget constraint, as we just talked about, 165 00:08:29,200 --> 00:08:32,720 Speaker 4: is coming as shifting inward, right, because the labor markets 166 00:08:32,720 --> 00:08:35,400 Speaker 4: have cooled and private sector wage and salary growth is slowing. 167 00:08:35,840 --> 00:08:38,520 Speaker 4: So if you do have let's say, cars costs more, 168 00:08:38,559 --> 00:08:40,959 Speaker 4: people have to allocate more dollars to cars, they'll have 169 00:08:41,040 --> 00:08:44,480 Speaker 4: less money left over. Ultimately, it comes down to the 170 00:08:44,480 --> 00:08:45,720 Speaker 4: household's budget line. 171 00:08:46,120 --> 00:08:49,560 Speaker 2: Neil, I look at the jobs report Friday. Is this 172 00:08:49,679 --> 00:08:53,479 Speaker 2: the first Trump report? Is this the last Biden report? 173 00:08:53,880 --> 00:08:56,160 Speaker 2: Is there a freshness to the data where you can 174 00:08:56,240 --> 00:09:00,200 Speaker 2: say this is finally Trump mathematics, Trump statistics. 175 00:09:00,360 --> 00:09:02,200 Speaker 4: I mean, I think it's a little bit too soon. 176 00:09:03,600 --> 00:09:05,400 Speaker 4: I mean we're talking about what the survey week was 177 00:09:05,400 --> 00:09:08,080 Speaker 4: the twelfth. I mean you started to have some dialing 178 00:09:08,160 --> 00:09:10,319 Speaker 4: up of the rhetoric. But I don't think it affects 179 00:09:10,400 --> 00:09:14,920 Speaker 4: things that quickly. I mean for firms, you're making a 180 00:09:14,960 --> 00:09:18,600 Speaker 4: trade off, right, I mean, it's not like people didn't 181 00:09:18,640 --> 00:09:21,480 Speaker 4: know what they were getting with Trump. He ran on 182 00:09:21,559 --> 00:09:24,040 Speaker 4: tariff being his favorite word in the dictionary, right. So 183 00:09:24,760 --> 00:09:27,600 Speaker 4: to me, it's the sequencing that might have put people off. 184 00:09:27,720 --> 00:09:28,480 Speaker 3: Are we now where. 185 00:09:28,360 --> 00:09:31,160 Speaker 2: There's a loss of confidence, there's a loss of consumer confidence, 186 00:09:31,160 --> 00:09:32,679 Speaker 2: there's a loss of business com Yeah. 187 00:09:32,679 --> 00:09:36,000 Speaker 4: I mean I think every month that goes on from 188 00:09:36,120 --> 00:09:40,000 Speaker 4: since the inauguration, it becomes more you know Trump. But 189 00:09:40,040 --> 00:09:43,360 Speaker 4: I will say, look, I mean I do think that 190 00:09:43,440 --> 00:09:45,400 Speaker 4: he was dealt a bad hand. I mean, the economic 191 00:09:45,440 --> 00:09:48,080 Speaker 4: buffer was not the same as it was back in 192 00:09:48,080 --> 00:09:52,120 Speaker 4: like twenty seventeen. Let's say, you know, total hours worked 193 00:09:52,559 --> 00:09:56,280 Speaker 4: in the three months ending in February, we're negative, right. 194 00:09:57,160 --> 00:09:59,760 Speaker 4: We just talked about private sector wage and salary growth 195 00:10:00,040 --> 00:10:02,760 Speaker 4: barely running three percent. That was a February data point. 196 00:10:03,000 --> 00:10:07,959 Speaker 4: So the truth is is that the administration inherited a 197 00:10:08,080 --> 00:10:11,040 Speaker 4: very imbalanced economy. One where the labor markets were frozen, 198 00:10:11,120 --> 00:10:14,080 Speaker 4: the housing market was frozen. That continues, and you could 199 00:10:14,120 --> 00:10:16,920 Speaker 4: argue that they've made a bad situation worse. But I 200 00:10:16,960 --> 00:10:19,400 Speaker 4: also think their communication has been a little bit challenged, 201 00:10:19,440 --> 00:10:22,520 Speaker 4: right because look at how they look, at how they look. 202 00:10:22,840 --> 00:10:24,920 Speaker 4: They sort of talked about the last job's number the 203 00:10:24,960 --> 00:10:30,199 Speaker 4: February report, right, they took credit for the big increase 204 00:10:30,240 --> 00:10:32,760 Speaker 4: in auto manufacturing employment. There was like a nine thousand 205 00:10:32,800 --> 00:10:35,160 Speaker 4: increase in factory employment, and you know for motor vehicle 206 00:10:35,160 --> 00:10:38,000 Speaker 4: in parts manufacturing. I mean, you can't say, oh, this 207 00:10:38,120 --> 00:10:40,160 Speaker 4: is us, but all that bad stuff is Biden, right, 208 00:10:40,160 --> 00:10:42,199 Speaker 4: so you have you have to kind of I think 209 00:10:42,200 --> 00:10:44,400 Speaker 4: they would have been served much better had they talked 210 00:10:44,400 --> 00:10:47,040 Speaker 4: the economy down more on their way in the door, Frankly. 211 00:10:47,760 --> 00:10:50,000 Speaker 5: Fed any role for the FED here, I mean at 212 00:10:50,040 --> 00:10:54,400 Speaker 5: two rate cuts, maybe a third item went back to three? 213 00:10:54,400 --> 00:10:54,920 Speaker 6: Where did they? 214 00:10:55,240 --> 00:10:56,640 Speaker 4: I mean, I think the Fed will be going four 215 00:10:56,640 --> 00:10:59,520 Speaker 4: times this year. I think they'll start in June. I 216 00:10:59,520 --> 00:11:03,120 Speaker 4: wouldn't be surprised if you know they could. They could 217 00:11:03,160 --> 00:11:08,760 Speaker 4: start with fifty. Frankly, I think the labor markets are right, 218 00:11:09,320 --> 00:11:11,199 Speaker 4: aren't a bad spot, and I don't think that they 219 00:11:11,200 --> 00:11:13,760 Speaker 4: want to take any chances. Frankly, and as I mentioned, 220 00:11:13,800 --> 00:11:17,320 Speaker 4: you know, ultimately the growth effects are going to dominate 221 00:11:17,360 --> 00:11:20,680 Speaker 4: the inflation risks and and I think if the FED 222 00:11:20,760 --> 00:11:22,720 Speaker 4: is taking that on board, they're going to be cutting 223 00:11:22,720 --> 00:11:23,720 Speaker 4: more aggressively in the market. 224 00:11:23,720 --> 00:11:23,920 Speaker 3: STA. 225 00:11:24,000 --> 00:11:25,880 Speaker 2: I know you're not in speaking terms with Jeff de Graph, 226 00:11:25,920 --> 00:11:28,839 Speaker 2: but when you do talk through your people with mister 227 00:11:28,920 --> 00:11:33,240 Speaker 2: de Graf link in his market analysis into your economics 228 00:11:33,640 --> 00:11:38,040 Speaker 2: over to the grimness of Atlanta GDP. Now talk about 229 00:11:38,080 --> 00:11:41,880 Speaker 2: you know the growth metric. Those are grim statistics in Atlanta. 230 00:11:42,400 --> 00:11:45,240 Speaker 4: Well, I mean, I think for for Jeff's process, credit 231 00:11:45,320 --> 00:11:48,360 Speaker 4: matters a lot, and so I think that's what he's 232 00:11:48,400 --> 00:11:50,360 Speaker 4: looking at. So the fact that credit spreads are starting 233 00:11:50,360 --> 00:11:52,160 Speaker 4: to wake up a little. 234 00:11:51,920 --> 00:11:54,000 Speaker 3: Bit are the vigiland he's going to tell the FED 235 00:11:54,080 --> 00:11:54,439 Speaker 3: what to. 236 00:11:54,400 --> 00:11:58,680 Speaker 4: Do, don't they always? I mean I think you know, 237 00:11:58,840 --> 00:12:00,559 Speaker 4: I mean, look to me, you have to watch high 238 00:12:00,600 --> 00:12:02,839 Speaker 4: yield credit like all this stuff that you're seeing from 239 00:12:02,840 --> 00:12:04,520 Speaker 4: the street. I mean, you mentioned Goldman. 240 00:12:05,360 --> 00:12:07,040 Speaker 3: Better than me. I mean, it's odor is to. 241 00:12:08,520 --> 00:12:09,959 Speaker 5: At least is on top of the whole credit. 242 00:12:09,840 --> 00:12:11,600 Speaker 3: Yield spreads are finally breaking. 243 00:12:11,920 --> 00:12:14,760 Speaker 4: Well, I mean you mentioned Goldman. They took up their 244 00:12:14,800 --> 00:12:17,080 Speaker 4: recession probabilities. I mean, all they're really doing at this 245 00:12:17,120 --> 00:12:18,960 Speaker 4: point is just following the market. If you look at 246 00:12:19,000 --> 00:12:22,600 Speaker 4: like the Fed's excess, you know, riffs premium right like there, 247 00:12:22,600 --> 00:12:26,040 Speaker 4: their measure of using corporate credit to determine recession probabilities. 248 00:12:26,240 --> 00:12:28,240 Speaker 4: That's basically what's going on. So I think you have 249 00:12:28,280 --> 00:12:30,520 Speaker 4: to watch credit spreads and the higher they go, the 250 00:12:30,559 --> 00:12:32,400 Speaker 4: more likely you have to assume the Fed is going 251 00:12:32,440 --> 00:12:32,800 Speaker 4: to go more. 252 00:12:32,880 --> 00:12:33,640 Speaker 3: Get one more in here. 253 00:12:34,040 --> 00:12:36,160 Speaker 5: So, Neil, what's the data point you're looking at here? 254 00:12:36,200 --> 00:12:38,120 Speaker 5: What should the market look at? I mean, we're gonna 255 00:12:38,120 --> 00:12:41,040 Speaker 5: at Jobs Day on Friday. Is that something that's going to. 256 00:12:41,080 --> 00:12:43,200 Speaker 4: Be I'll tell you right now. Go on your Bloomberg 257 00:12:43,280 --> 00:12:46,680 Speaker 4: terminal p I W G T O t L index. 258 00:12:46,880 --> 00:12:49,000 Speaker 4: You go into the economic work bench, look at that 259 00:12:49,080 --> 00:12:51,920 Speaker 4: year over year and then add in the FED funds rate. 260 00:12:53,120 --> 00:12:55,800 Speaker 4: If the Fed funds rate is over that year over 261 00:12:55,880 --> 00:12:58,960 Speaker 4: year rate of growth, bad things tend to happen. And 262 00:12:59,000 --> 00:12:59,959 Speaker 4: that's where we are right now. 263 00:13:00,120 --> 00:13:04,840 Speaker 5: Oh boy, thanks on that note, Tom, I just you 264 00:13:04,880 --> 00:13:08,600 Speaker 5: didn't fill out a brick. Are you too busy looking 265 00:13:08,640 --> 00:13:08,840 Speaker 5: at that? 266 00:13:08,920 --> 00:13:09,240 Speaker 2: Pi? 267 00:13:09,520 --> 00:13:12,520 Speaker 4: Oh me, Well, I went to a Division III school, Tom, 268 00:13:12,880 --> 00:13:13,720 Speaker 4: I went to NYU. 269 00:13:13,800 --> 00:13:16,959 Speaker 5: I mean, hey, the women's fastball to die for this 270 00:13:17,000 --> 00:13:18,719 Speaker 5: guy dominant? 271 00:13:18,920 --> 00:13:25,080 Speaker 2: Yes, Neil, congratulations, huge impact on the nation's market economics. 272 00:13:25,080 --> 00:13:27,640 Speaker 3: Neil dout of there with Renaissance Macro. Thank you so much. 273 00:13:27,920 --> 00:13:31,800 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday 274 00:13:31,840 --> 00:13:34,840 Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Apple Corplay and Android 275 00:13:34,880 --> 00:13:37,920 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen 276 00:13:38,000 --> 00:13:41,280 Speaker 1: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. 277 00:13:41,800 --> 00:13:45,880 Speaker 1: Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty joining us right now. 278 00:13:45,960 --> 00:13:49,600 Speaker 2: Someone who could have written How Not to Invest Brian Belski, 279 00:13:49,679 --> 00:13:53,400 Speaker 2: chief investment strategist at FEMO Capital Markets. In times like 280 00:13:53,480 --> 00:13:58,360 Speaker 2: this in corrective emotion, he has been liberated by saying 281 00:13:58,440 --> 00:14:00,000 Speaker 2: stay in the market have curged. 282 00:14:00,559 --> 00:14:03,760 Speaker 3: Brian Belski, are you still a bull this morning? 283 00:14:04,880 --> 00:14:09,040 Speaker 7: Good morning Tom, Yes I am, and I just got 284 00:14:09,080 --> 00:14:12,400 Speaker 7: back from yesterday. I just got back from being in 285 00:14:12,600 --> 00:14:15,080 Speaker 7: Canada for a couple of days, so I have some 286 00:14:15,200 --> 00:14:17,160 Speaker 7: unique perspective on that too. 287 00:14:17,200 --> 00:14:17,600 Speaker 3: Of course. 288 00:14:18,080 --> 00:14:24,000 Speaker 7: Was part of my responsibilities is to forecast the Canadian 289 00:14:24,000 --> 00:14:27,240 Speaker 7: stock market as defined by the TSX index. And I'll 290 00:14:27,280 --> 00:14:30,000 Speaker 7: say this that you know we have a bunch of 291 00:14:30,000 --> 00:14:32,840 Speaker 7: different responsibilities there, some of which is to manage actually 292 00:14:32,920 --> 00:14:37,320 Speaker 7: Canadian equity portfolios. And the majority of our majority of 293 00:14:37,640 --> 00:14:42,240 Speaker 7: I'm not being slambuoyant here, the majority of our Canadian 294 00:14:43,000 --> 00:14:46,440 Speaker 7: clients want to sell America and just being in Canada. 295 00:14:46,480 --> 00:14:50,000 Speaker 7: And we think that that is not only a tactical air, 296 00:14:50,080 --> 00:14:53,760 Speaker 7: it's a longer term strategic air, given the fact that 297 00:14:54,120 --> 00:14:57,560 Speaker 7: from a diversification standpoint, given just the fundamental perspective, US 298 00:14:57,600 --> 00:15:00,720 Speaker 7: as America goes, so it goes Canada. It regardless of 299 00:15:01,440 --> 00:15:04,440 Speaker 7: the outcome of this, the countries are still tied together, 300 00:15:04,520 --> 00:15:07,800 Speaker 7: they're still doing business together. And I think anytime in life, 301 00:15:08,160 --> 00:15:11,680 Speaker 7: litt alone investing Tom, when you make decisions based on 302 00:15:12,120 --> 00:15:15,080 Speaker 7: fear and emotion, they're wrong. And I think that's what 303 00:15:15,120 --> 00:15:17,480 Speaker 7: we're kind of heading into. And that's why the market's 304 00:15:17,520 --> 00:15:19,520 Speaker 7: here today. In the next day or so, until we 305 00:15:19,560 --> 00:15:24,400 Speaker 7: get some clarity, and Paul is talking about uncertainty, Oh 306 00:15:24,480 --> 00:15:26,840 Speaker 7: my gosh, we're in one of these times again. So 307 00:15:26,920 --> 00:15:28,440 Speaker 7: we're we're not changing anything. 308 00:15:29,160 --> 00:15:33,040 Speaker 5: So I guess you're of the opinion, Brian, that this 309 00:15:33,400 --> 00:15:36,240 Speaker 5: uncertainty in the marketplace, it will pass to a certain 310 00:15:36,280 --> 00:15:39,240 Speaker 5: degree at some time in the near future. I'm not 311 00:15:39,240 --> 00:15:41,800 Speaker 5: sure if it's as soon as Wednesday, but sometime sooner 312 00:15:41,880 --> 00:15:42,400 Speaker 5: rather than later. 313 00:15:43,360 --> 00:15:45,120 Speaker 6: Oh, it could be today, it could be tomorrow. 314 00:15:45,200 --> 00:15:47,520 Speaker 7: And I think what the problem is, Paul, is that 315 00:15:47,600 --> 00:15:50,080 Speaker 7: you know, all of us collectively on air right now, 316 00:15:50,120 --> 00:15:51,600 Speaker 7: I've been doing this for a long time, and I 317 00:15:51,680 --> 00:15:54,960 Speaker 7: think there's a couple of problems. Number one is I 318 00:15:55,040 --> 00:15:59,120 Speaker 7: believe that the near termism has been exacerbated since COVID, 319 00:15:59,160 --> 00:16:03,240 Speaker 7: that we've become so reactive. Number two is we have 320 00:16:03,320 --> 00:16:06,200 Speaker 7: to deal in life just like again, investing with things 321 00:16:06,200 --> 00:16:09,480 Speaker 7: that we know. We don't know exactly when this is 322 00:16:09,520 --> 00:16:12,520 Speaker 7: going to stop or change, and it all could change 323 00:16:12,560 --> 00:16:13,720 Speaker 7: to the positive as well. 324 00:16:14,000 --> 00:16:15,640 Speaker 6: And I think too many people that. 325 00:16:15,600 --> 00:16:17,640 Speaker 7: Do what I do, want to make the big negative 326 00:16:17,680 --> 00:16:22,440 Speaker 7: call and want to assume and infer, and that's really difficult. 327 00:16:22,680 --> 00:16:25,440 Speaker 7: And so I think I think what we know is 328 00:16:25,480 --> 00:16:27,360 Speaker 7: the markets have corrected more than ten percent, so we 329 00:16:27,400 --> 00:16:28,560 Speaker 7: are in correction zone. 330 00:16:28,680 --> 00:16:29,400 Speaker 6: That's what we know. 331 00:16:30,000 --> 00:16:32,880 Speaker 7: We also know that this is the fastest correction that 332 00:16:32,880 --> 00:16:36,520 Speaker 7: we've seen in multiple decades, if not ever, especially since 333 00:16:36,600 --> 00:16:39,120 Speaker 7: nineteen ninety. But at the end of the day, I 334 00:16:39,120 --> 00:16:41,360 Speaker 7: do believe that America has the best companies in the world. 335 00:16:41,400 --> 00:16:44,560 Speaker 7: Canada is actually quite put quite close in number two. 336 00:16:45,040 --> 00:16:46,800 Speaker 7: And this is the time where you want to start 337 00:16:46,840 --> 00:16:50,920 Speaker 7: a shopping list because we're seeing some quite exacerbated moves 338 00:16:50,920 --> 00:16:52,520 Speaker 7: to the downside. And this is where you want to 339 00:16:52,520 --> 00:16:53,560 Speaker 7: be a long term investor. 340 00:16:53,640 --> 00:16:56,080 Speaker 3: Brian Belski with U female capital markets for. 341 00:16:56,200 --> 00:17:02,080 Speaker 2: Investors, Brian Belski for whatever, and scared stiff. They don't 342 00:17:02,120 --> 00:17:06,720 Speaker 2: have the Belski confidence. How do they slide into this market? 343 00:17:09,119 --> 00:17:10,720 Speaker 7: Well, you know, we have a lot of faith in 344 00:17:10,800 --> 00:17:12,439 Speaker 7: terms of what we do things, and faith in our 345 00:17:12,480 --> 00:17:15,000 Speaker 7: business as fundamentals and in the fundamental construct of the 346 00:17:15,040 --> 00:17:17,479 Speaker 7: United States stock market has not changed the last eight 347 00:17:17,720 --> 00:17:18,440 Speaker 7: eight weeks. 348 00:17:18,640 --> 00:17:20,480 Speaker 6: And now people are gonna say, what about the tariffs 349 00:17:20,520 --> 00:17:23,520 Speaker 6: and what about state plation? Come on, man, we haven't 350 00:17:23,560 --> 00:17:25,280 Speaker 6: had stake plation since the nineteen seventies. 351 00:17:25,400 --> 00:17:30,200 Speaker 7: They're looking at their academic books to define stake inflation 352 00:17:30,359 --> 00:17:31,760 Speaker 7: and they don't understand what happened in. 353 00:17:31,720 --> 00:17:33,640 Speaker 6: The nineteen seventies. You and I live through that. 354 00:17:33,760 --> 00:17:36,080 Speaker 7: Paul, he's much younger than we are ton so he 355 00:17:36,119 --> 00:17:37,560 Speaker 7: didn't really live through the seventies. 356 00:17:37,840 --> 00:17:40,320 Speaker 6: But at the end of the day, you want to 357 00:17:40,320 --> 00:17:41,680 Speaker 6: find really great companies. 358 00:17:41,960 --> 00:17:44,160 Speaker 7: If I take two steps back and I say, okay, 359 00:17:44,160 --> 00:17:47,680 Speaker 7: what are the top ten companies in the world. Oh, 360 00:17:47,680 --> 00:17:49,360 Speaker 7: by the way, they're all here in the United States, 361 00:17:49,440 --> 00:17:51,399 Speaker 7: And so I think this is where you want to 362 00:17:51,400 --> 00:17:53,639 Speaker 7: make your list, and you want to be an investor 363 00:17:54,080 --> 00:17:57,919 Speaker 7: in Google and Apple and Amazon and Costco and United 364 00:17:57,920 --> 00:17:59,640 Speaker 7: Healthcare and Berkshire Hathaway. 365 00:18:01,080 --> 00:18:02,200 Speaker 6: Tesla's no longer a. 366 00:18:02,080 --> 00:18:05,760 Speaker 7: Magnificent seven, by the way, but Tesla is a fantastic 367 00:18:05,960 --> 00:18:08,880 Speaker 7: technology company, and I think you want to own Tesla 368 00:18:08,960 --> 00:18:12,000 Speaker 7: for the operating system right now, just like you wanted 369 00:18:12,000 --> 00:18:15,679 Speaker 7: to initially buy Apple for the operating system back in 370 00:18:15,720 --> 00:18:17,640 Speaker 7: their early two thousand. So I think that's the way 371 00:18:17,680 --> 00:18:20,320 Speaker 7: you want to kind of think thematically. Now, there's no 372 00:18:20,400 --> 00:18:22,400 Speaker 7: doubt that there's bumps in the road. There's no doubt 373 00:18:22,440 --> 00:18:24,639 Speaker 7: that we don't exactly know what President Trump's going to do, 374 00:18:24,760 --> 00:18:26,399 Speaker 7: or we don't know the retaliatory stuff. 375 00:18:26,680 --> 00:18:28,680 Speaker 6: But again, we are negotiating. 376 00:18:28,840 --> 00:18:31,600 Speaker 7: Nothing is certain, and so I think you have to 377 00:18:31,600 --> 00:18:34,159 Speaker 7: deal with what's certain, And what's certain is make your 378 00:18:34,200 --> 00:18:36,600 Speaker 7: shopping list of the top ten companies in the world 379 00:18:36,840 --> 00:18:41,239 Speaker 7: be consistent. And by the way, nobody, nobody's sold at 380 00:18:41,240 --> 00:18:44,320 Speaker 7: the peak. So this peakda trough analysis that a lot 381 00:18:44,320 --> 00:18:47,560 Speaker 7: of people are starting to talk about it's bunk because 382 00:18:47,600 --> 00:18:50,760 Speaker 7: people don't do that, and actually more people buy at 383 00:18:50,800 --> 00:18:52,200 Speaker 7: the top than they sell at the top. 384 00:18:53,000 --> 00:18:54,840 Speaker 5: What are we doing in the fixed income world, Brian? 385 00:18:56,160 --> 00:18:58,000 Speaker 6: You know fixed income? Paul's a great question. 386 00:18:58,080 --> 00:19:00,000 Speaker 7: I think fixed income is starting to get a little 387 00:19:00,200 --> 00:19:03,680 Speaker 7: more interesting, especially given the fact that what treasuries have done. 388 00:19:03,680 --> 00:19:05,200 Speaker 7: So I do think that you want to start looking 389 00:19:05,240 --> 00:19:07,720 Speaker 7: at ten year treasuries and start looking at this dare 390 00:19:07,760 --> 00:19:11,480 Speaker 7: I say sixty to forty scenario, because if fixed income 391 00:19:11,520 --> 00:19:13,600 Speaker 7: is going to be part of your portfolio, which we 392 00:19:13,640 --> 00:19:16,280 Speaker 7: think it should in this realm of what we've been 393 00:19:16,280 --> 00:19:17,919 Speaker 7: saying for the last two to three years is that 394 00:19:17,960 --> 00:19:21,119 Speaker 7: we're returning to normalization. You can, will, and should have 395 00:19:21,160 --> 00:19:24,159 Speaker 7: fixed income as part of your portfolio, as you should 396 00:19:24,160 --> 00:19:27,560 Speaker 7: have small cap and value, so more of a diversified 397 00:19:27,600 --> 00:19:31,080 Speaker 7: total asset perspective, and I think fixed incomes starting to 398 00:19:31,119 --> 00:19:32,080 Speaker 7: look a lot more interesting. 399 00:19:32,800 --> 00:19:36,800 Speaker 5: How upset are the average Canadian towards towards their friends 400 00:19:36,840 --> 00:19:37,400 Speaker 5: below here? 401 00:19:38,640 --> 00:19:43,280 Speaker 7: Well, I've been a BEAMA over thirteen years and they 402 00:19:43,320 --> 00:19:46,560 Speaker 7: are taking things very very seriously, as they should they're 403 00:19:46,600 --> 00:19:49,439 Speaker 7: taking you very, very personally, and I understand I have 404 00:19:49,640 --> 00:19:52,440 Speaker 7: an excessive amount of empathy in life and empathy. 405 00:19:53,040 --> 00:19:54,680 Speaker 6: I feel very bad for them, But. 406 00:19:54,680 --> 00:19:56,359 Speaker 7: At the end of the day, they also have to 407 00:19:56,359 --> 00:19:59,080 Speaker 7: look at themselves, and they don't for all intentsive purposes, 408 00:19:59,080 --> 00:20:01,760 Speaker 7: they're just it's very like, just blame the United States, 409 00:20:01,760 --> 00:20:03,239 Speaker 7: and I think that's the wrong way to look at 410 00:20:03,280 --> 00:20:05,679 Speaker 7: it in a relationship. It's two sides that people are 411 00:20:05,720 --> 00:20:08,520 Speaker 7: just say, Oh, it's just Trump. No it's not, and 412 00:20:08,560 --> 00:20:10,919 Speaker 7: you have to kind of think about that. So I 413 00:20:10,960 --> 00:20:14,040 Speaker 7: do believe that calmber heads will prevail. And on Canada, 414 00:20:14,080 --> 00:20:16,720 Speaker 7: it's really interesting Paul's that Canada's all performing the US 415 00:20:16,800 --> 00:20:20,080 Speaker 7: this year and no one's talking about this. The actual 416 00:20:20,119 --> 00:20:22,520 Speaker 7: currency is actually tightened up a little bit in terms 417 00:20:22,520 --> 00:20:26,000 Speaker 7: of relative to the US dollar. So I think Canada 418 00:20:26,760 --> 00:20:28,600 Speaker 7: has been our call. Canada is going to continue to 419 00:20:28,600 --> 00:20:31,720 Speaker 7: out perform. Why because from a valuation perspective, well, it 420 00:20:31,840 --> 00:20:35,639 Speaker 7: looks really really good and the banks in particular are 421 00:20:35,680 --> 00:20:37,800 Speaker 7: our favorite assets in Canas along with Shopify. 422 00:20:37,920 --> 00:20:39,720 Speaker 3: Brian Belski, thank you so much. 423 00:20:45,440 --> 00:20:49,040 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast Catch us Live 424 00:20:49,080 --> 00:20:52,240 Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern. Listen on 425 00:20:52,320 --> 00:20:56,040 Speaker 1: Applecarplay and Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business app, or 426 00:20:56,119 --> 00:20:57,520 Speaker 1: watch US live on YouTube. 427 00:20:57,680 --> 00:21:01,120 Speaker 2: Joining us now she has been of such advance, Henrietta 428 00:21:01,160 --> 00:21:04,639 Speaker 2: trays with Veda partners. Henrietta, all I'm hearing now is 429 00:21:04,680 --> 00:21:06,959 Speaker 2: we don't we don't know, We don't know, we don't know. 430 00:21:07,200 --> 00:21:09,679 Speaker 3: Does anyone on Capitol Hill know what the President's going 431 00:21:09,760 --> 00:21:09,960 Speaker 3: to do? 432 00:21:11,480 --> 00:21:14,240 Speaker 8: They wish they knew. I can tell when I go 433 00:21:14,359 --> 00:21:17,200 Speaker 8: into member offices and speak with their staff that they 434 00:21:17,280 --> 00:21:21,280 Speaker 8: have very limited ability to sway the president on what's coming. 435 00:21:21,320 --> 00:21:24,560 Speaker 8: Republicans are in a better position than Democrats for obvious reasons. 436 00:21:25,160 --> 00:21:28,359 Speaker 8: But there is more of a reliance from members on 437 00:21:28,440 --> 00:21:31,120 Speaker 8: saying things like, once we have certainty, the markets will 438 00:21:31,119 --> 00:21:33,919 Speaker 8: calm down. Once we have certainty, the manufacturers will know 439 00:21:33,960 --> 00:21:37,280 Speaker 8: what to do, the tariffs will be, you know, not 440 00:21:37,440 --> 00:21:39,760 Speaker 8: lasting past the summer. There's a lot of optimism and 441 00:21:39,800 --> 00:21:43,520 Speaker 8: sort of wishful thinking about how impactful they can be 442 00:21:43,560 --> 00:21:44,199 Speaker 8: on this topic. 443 00:21:44,560 --> 00:21:48,679 Speaker 2: Oh what a beautiful mort Oh did Oklahoma make the 444 00:21:48,720 --> 00:21:49,320 Speaker 2: final four? 445 00:21:49,520 --> 00:21:49,680 Speaker 7: Now? 446 00:21:50,000 --> 00:21:56,879 Speaker 2: Outing an agricultural country, Henrietta treys it's subsidy reducts Republican 447 00:21:57,000 --> 00:22:01,480 Speaker 2: farmers are going to get funds from from Washington because 448 00:22:01,480 --> 00:22:03,520 Speaker 2: they're harmed by the tariffs, right. 449 00:22:04,359 --> 00:22:07,680 Speaker 8: Right, exactly. So it's acknowledgment that the tariffs are harmful 450 00:22:08,080 --> 00:22:12,760 Speaker 8: and simultaneously more expensive. The last administration around, we had 451 00:22:13,119 --> 00:22:15,359 Speaker 8: more bailouts for the farming sector than we had for 452 00:22:15,400 --> 00:22:18,800 Speaker 8: the auto sector during the Great Recession. And already, you know, 453 00:22:18,920 --> 00:22:22,000 Speaker 8: just two months into the administration, we're already talking about 454 00:22:22,000 --> 00:22:25,200 Speaker 8: another round of bailouts for farmers from Brooke Rollins, the 455 00:22:25,400 --> 00:22:27,879 Speaker 8: head of the USDA. So that's absolutely going to be 456 00:22:27,880 --> 00:22:28,960 Speaker 8: a part of this. And I think we need to 457 00:22:28,960 --> 00:22:32,920 Speaker 8: talk to farmers or seed associations or trade manufacturers in 458 00:22:32,960 --> 00:22:35,560 Speaker 8: the agriculture space. They don't want the bailout. They want 459 00:22:35,560 --> 00:22:38,639 Speaker 8: to not lose their market share to Brazil and Argentina 460 00:22:38,760 --> 00:22:41,600 Speaker 8: for soybean crops for the foreseeable future and things like that. 461 00:22:41,680 --> 00:22:44,760 Speaker 8: So it's a major source of anxiety. But they nonetheless 462 00:22:44,760 --> 00:22:48,159 Speaker 8: support the president more than they support any other candidates, 463 00:22:48,400 --> 00:22:51,040 Speaker 8: and that keeps them in the playing field and keeps 464 00:22:51,040 --> 00:22:53,720 Speaker 8: Trump capable of putting these tariffs into effect, which is 465 00:22:53,720 --> 00:22:54,600 Speaker 8: why we think they will. 466 00:22:54,480 --> 00:22:57,520 Speaker 5: Be Henriette, I thank you for your research. Note here 467 00:22:57,520 --> 00:22:59,879 Speaker 5: it lays it out day for day what we should 468 00:23:00,000 --> 00:23:01,520 Speaker 5: expect here this week, because it's going to be a 469 00:23:01,560 --> 00:23:06,760 Speaker 5: long week here, So folks, Henriette's research is absolutely must 470 00:23:06,880 --> 00:23:09,399 Speaker 5: read here for to get a stay on top of 471 00:23:09,440 --> 00:23:12,200 Speaker 5: what's happening down in DC. And you note that tonight, 472 00:23:12,520 --> 00:23:16,960 Speaker 5: Monday night, Congress actually comes back to d C. What's 473 00:23:17,000 --> 00:23:18,240 Speaker 5: on there to do list here? 474 00:23:19,160 --> 00:23:21,880 Speaker 8: This is going to be a fascinating week. So first off, 475 00:23:22,040 --> 00:23:24,320 Speaker 8: we know that the Senate Republican Conference is trying to 476 00:23:24,320 --> 00:23:27,679 Speaker 8: pull forward their consideration of the budget resolution. And the 477 00:23:27,680 --> 00:23:29,719 Speaker 8: budget resolution, of course, is the key that we need 478 00:23:29,760 --> 00:23:32,320 Speaker 8: to unlock before we can write the tax bill, and 479 00:23:32,440 --> 00:23:35,680 Speaker 8: they're using this really novel approach where because the House 480 00:23:35,720 --> 00:23:38,160 Speaker 8: and the Senate do not agree on whether to cut 481 00:23:38,160 --> 00:23:41,200 Speaker 8: the deficit, whether to cut six hundred billion dollars for medicaid, 482 00:23:41,440 --> 00:23:44,040 Speaker 8: whether to cut into a whole host of things, to 483 00:23:44,320 --> 00:23:48,440 Speaker 8: the corporate salt deduction, raise corporate taxes, there's no agreement 484 00:23:48,520 --> 00:23:51,200 Speaker 8: right now between the two chambers. So what they're choosing 485 00:23:51,240 --> 00:23:55,359 Speaker 8: to do for the first time is past different budgets 486 00:23:55,400 --> 00:23:57,440 Speaker 8: for each chamber. So the House gets to write their 487 00:23:57,480 --> 00:23:59,639 Speaker 8: own tax bill and the Senate gets to write their 488 00:23:59,680 --> 00:24:02,840 Speaker 8: own time, and they're going to kickstart that process tonight 489 00:24:03,160 --> 00:24:06,800 Speaker 8: votes on Wednesday, and then also the Senate Democrats are 490 00:24:06,840 --> 00:24:09,159 Speaker 8: going to force a vote on the AIPA TIS against Canada, 491 00:24:09,200 --> 00:24:11,359 Speaker 8: which will be fascinating to watch right now. 492 00:24:11,400 --> 00:24:13,679 Speaker 2: And folks, we do them with the Monday Audible with 493 00:24:13,800 --> 00:24:17,680 Speaker 2: Henrietta tras is only we can do with Henrietta Trays. Henriette, 494 00:24:17,840 --> 00:24:20,600 Speaker 2: maybe off your remit, but I'm going there. There's a 495 00:24:20,720 --> 00:24:22,119 Speaker 2: zeitgeist out. 496 00:24:21,880 --> 00:24:25,120 Speaker 3: There that the judiciary is going to come to the rescue. 497 00:24:25,680 --> 00:24:30,160 Speaker 2: How do you respond when people say, on appeal, federal 498 00:24:30,200 --> 00:24:34,960 Speaker 2: courts or the Supreme Court will somehow write the American ship. 499 00:24:36,280 --> 00:24:39,200 Speaker 8: Yes, you're right, that is definitely outside of my jurisdiction. 500 00:24:39,320 --> 00:24:41,320 Speaker 8: I only like to talk about things that I know about. 501 00:24:41,680 --> 00:24:44,199 Speaker 8: I would segue and pivot to answer your question and 502 00:24:44,200 --> 00:24:47,200 Speaker 8: say that the Democrats on Capitol Hill are very much 503 00:24:47,280 --> 00:24:50,159 Speaker 8: counting on the judicial branch to do any of the 504 00:24:50,160 --> 00:24:53,000 Speaker 8: blocking that needs to be done, because they have no 505 00:24:53,160 --> 00:24:56,520 Speaker 8: recourse in Congress to stop any of this, and the 506 00:24:56,520 --> 00:24:59,720 Speaker 8: Republican Conference is supportive of it, so it has to 507 00:24:59,760 --> 00:25:01,199 Speaker 8: be reliant on the courts. 508 00:25:01,280 --> 00:25:04,960 Speaker 2: There is no alternative, Okay, Henretta, thank you so much 509 00:25:04,960 --> 00:25:07,760 Speaker 2: for your commitment to Bloomberg Surveillance, just so important. 510 00:25:08,040 --> 00:25:11,920 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday 511 00:25:11,960 --> 00:25:15,000 Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Apple Corplay and Android 512 00:25:15,000 --> 00:25:18,040 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen 513 00:25:18,119 --> 00:25:21,359 Speaker 1: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, 514 00:25:21,920 --> 00:25:24,560 Speaker 1: Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 515 00:25:24,680 --> 00:25:27,560 Speaker 2: Critty goop through with us of course in London, driving 516 00:25:27,560 --> 00:25:32,320 Speaker 2: our morning coverage in London. Back end of her day today, Critty, 517 00:25:32,440 --> 00:25:36,479 Speaker 2: I just looked at Lewis Viewton. Mister Arnault is on 518 00:25:36,640 --> 00:25:39,919 Speaker 2: really good terms with mister Trump, and there's I think 519 00:25:40,000 --> 00:25:42,440 Speaker 2: the journal had the article the family and they went 520 00:25:42,480 --> 00:25:44,080 Speaker 2: to the inauguration and all that. 521 00:25:44,840 --> 00:25:45,240 Speaker 3: Critty. 522 00:25:45,960 --> 00:25:51,280 Speaker 2: The drawdown of Lewis Viewton is negatives thirty seven percent 523 00:25:52,000 --> 00:25:55,960 Speaker 2: back to a spring of twenty twenty one pricing. How 524 00:25:56,080 --> 00:26:00,440 Speaker 2: upset is mister Arnaud. How upset are European come these 525 00:26:01,160 --> 00:26:02,120 Speaker 2: liberation day? 526 00:26:04,160 --> 00:26:07,520 Speaker 9: Very upset? And I think Louis Vuitton is one example 527 00:26:07,680 --> 00:26:11,040 Speaker 9: of that. Especially the reason it needs to be kind 528 00:26:11,119 --> 00:26:14,399 Speaker 9: of you tread with caution if you're an international company, 529 00:26:14,440 --> 00:26:17,960 Speaker 9: and of course European companies have way more exposure abroad 530 00:26:18,119 --> 00:26:20,520 Speaker 9: than they do where they're based. I think Louis Vutan 531 00:26:20,640 --> 00:26:22,639 Speaker 9: is a great example there where they're based in France. 532 00:26:22,640 --> 00:26:25,000 Speaker 9: But the majority of the revenue comes from the two 533 00:26:25,240 --> 00:26:28,000 Speaker 9: major superpowers of the world, the two largest economies of 534 00:26:28,040 --> 00:26:30,640 Speaker 9: the world, and that is China and the United States. 535 00:26:30,680 --> 00:26:32,480 Speaker 9: So the tariff story is going to hit them hard. 536 00:26:32,520 --> 00:26:35,480 Speaker 9: They also own a spirit's business as well, a piece 537 00:26:35,520 --> 00:26:37,639 Speaker 9: of their business, so a lot of the wine tarraff, 538 00:26:37,720 --> 00:26:40,520 Speaker 9: champagne tariffs, all of that that's coming from the White 539 00:26:40,560 --> 00:26:44,560 Speaker 9: House and the Trump administration is going to hit Bernard Arnau. 540 00:26:44,440 --> 00:26:47,600 Speaker 5: Very hard and kritty what's the feeling across the UK 541 00:26:47,680 --> 00:26:51,080 Speaker 5: and Europe as to their ability and their appetite to 542 00:26:51,520 --> 00:26:55,119 Speaker 5: put on reciprocal tariffs on US goods. 543 00:26:56,720 --> 00:26:59,480 Speaker 9: It is the last card that they have to play 544 00:26:59,520 --> 00:27:01,560 Speaker 9: and they know oh as well. And then you've seen 545 00:27:01,600 --> 00:27:04,320 Speaker 9: them do this in pieces where a great example is 546 00:27:04,320 --> 00:27:07,600 Speaker 9: when the wine tariffs were actually put on, champagne tariffs 547 00:27:07,600 --> 00:27:10,560 Speaker 9: were actually put on, the equal amount was also put 548 00:27:10,600 --> 00:27:13,919 Speaker 9: on from the EU on things like American whiskey or 549 00:27:14,000 --> 00:27:17,280 Speaker 9: American exports in the drink space as well. They match 550 00:27:17,320 --> 00:27:19,240 Speaker 9: it eye for eye but they don't go any further, 551 00:27:19,320 --> 00:27:23,080 Speaker 9: and that's simply because the impact is harder when it 552 00:27:23,119 --> 00:27:26,480 Speaker 9: comes to the European growth story when Europe as reciprocal 553 00:27:26,520 --> 00:27:29,720 Speaker 9: tariffs versus the other way around. The problem is this 554 00:27:29,760 --> 00:27:31,320 Speaker 9: is the last card they have to play. So if 555 00:27:31,359 --> 00:27:33,760 Speaker 9: they were able to put on those reciprocal tariffs or 556 00:27:33,800 --> 00:27:37,200 Speaker 9: do something like put on quotas, that is really the 557 00:27:37,240 --> 00:27:38,760 Speaker 9: last thing they can do. But there's a couple of 558 00:27:38,800 --> 00:27:40,920 Speaker 9: other ways that they can tackle it. And this is 559 00:27:41,000 --> 00:27:43,800 Speaker 9: kind of the Hail Mary from Europe, which is starting 560 00:27:43,800 --> 00:27:48,160 Speaker 9: to tackle things like digital services, technology and financial services, 561 00:27:48,200 --> 00:27:49,760 Speaker 9: which means that a lot of the trade that happens 562 00:27:49,800 --> 00:27:51,920 Speaker 9: between New York and London, or New York and Paris, 563 00:27:52,040 --> 00:27:53,919 Speaker 9: or New York and wherever would get halted. 564 00:27:54,000 --> 00:27:56,520 Speaker 2: He crity an unfair question and you know I'm making jokes, 565 00:27:56,520 --> 00:27:59,679 Speaker 2: So it's Curtty's killing herself twenty four to seven on 566 00:27:59,720 --> 00:28:02,560 Speaker 2: this between Run and The London Show with Anna Edwards 567 00:28:02,600 --> 00:28:05,679 Speaker 2: and also like doing all the great work with everyone except. 568 00:28:05,480 --> 00:28:06,879 Speaker 3: Nathan Hager Critty. 569 00:28:07,359 --> 00:28:10,360 Speaker 2: I look at where we are and the Ian Bremer 570 00:28:10,680 --> 00:28:14,680 Speaker 2: is at every nation for itself in Europe, including Turkey, 571 00:28:15,040 --> 00:28:18,840 Speaker 2: or does Brussels have actually a part to play. 572 00:28:19,160 --> 00:28:21,080 Speaker 6: Brussels has no part to play. 573 00:28:21,119 --> 00:28:23,560 Speaker 9: And I think a great example of that is what 574 00:28:23,680 --> 00:28:25,879 Speaker 9: came out of the summit last week, the Coalition of 575 00:28:25,880 --> 00:28:28,040 Speaker 9: the willing summit when it comes to the likes of Ukraine, 576 00:28:28,080 --> 00:28:31,360 Speaker 9: for example, and yet they weren't at the table when 577 00:28:31,359 --> 00:28:34,560 Speaker 9: it came to a ceasefire, even negotiation between the United 578 00:28:34,560 --> 00:28:38,440 Speaker 9: States and Russia in riyod Or, even with Turkey's involvement. 579 00:28:38,480 --> 00:28:41,560 Speaker 9: And Turkey, by the way, is the number one defense 580 00:28:41,600 --> 00:28:44,520 Speaker 9: spender with Russia, but is also a NATO member and 581 00:28:44,520 --> 00:28:47,840 Speaker 9: technically a US ally as well. They're also kind of 582 00:28:48,040 --> 00:28:49,880 Speaker 9: situated on the Black Sea where a lot of the 583 00:28:49,920 --> 00:28:52,360 Speaker 9: grain that comes out of Ukraine and Russia and ultimately 584 00:28:52,440 --> 00:28:55,640 Speaker 9: hits American cereal and American bread comes from. So the 585 00:28:55,640 --> 00:28:59,120 Speaker 9: irony of the situation is that the Europeans are trying 586 00:28:59,160 --> 00:29:01,200 Speaker 9: to have a voice at a table and in a 587 00:29:01,320 --> 00:29:03,520 Speaker 9: room that the door is completely closed to. 588 00:29:04,320 --> 00:29:07,680 Speaker 5: Pretty streets of London, streets of Paris, Milan. Are the 589 00:29:07,720 --> 00:29:10,959 Speaker 5: folks there? Did they recognize that, you know, things are 590 00:29:11,040 --> 00:29:15,440 Speaker 5: changing here in US in a big way economically, politically, militarily. 591 00:29:15,520 --> 00:29:17,959 Speaker 5: Do they see the changes that are or do they 592 00:29:17,960 --> 00:29:20,920 Speaker 5: feel the changes that are taking place. I think they 593 00:29:20,960 --> 00:29:21,840 Speaker 5: absolutely feel it. 594 00:29:21,880 --> 00:29:24,200 Speaker 9: And a great example, I think in the we kind 595 00:29:24,200 --> 00:29:26,240 Speaker 9: of talked for the economics of it. It's very similar 596 00:29:26,240 --> 00:29:29,560 Speaker 9: here where people are kind of voting politically with the 597 00:29:29,600 --> 00:29:32,040 Speaker 9: pinch that they're feeling in their pocket. So a lot 598 00:29:32,080 --> 00:29:33,520 Speaker 9: of the kind of voting that happens, say in the 599 00:29:33,600 --> 00:29:36,600 Speaker 9: last twenty twenty election was in some ways a response 600 00:29:36,640 --> 00:29:39,600 Speaker 9: to immigration or response to the economy. It's the exact 601 00:29:39,640 --> 00:29:41,840 Speaker 9: same story here. You see that in terms of support 602 00:29:42,320 --> 00:29:43,680 Speaker 9: for some of the far right here in the UK, 603 00:29:43,800 --> 00:29:45,840 Speaker 9: but certainly for the far right in France. And I 604 00:29:45,840 --> 00:29:47,760 Speaker 9: think that has been the story of the morning, especially 605 00:29:47,800 --> 00:29:51,080 Speaker 9: with Marie La Penn now getting banned from running for office. 606 00:29:51,120 --> 00:29:53,720 Speaker 9: This is a big deal for an international audience that 607 00:29:53,880 --> 00:29:57,240 Speaker 9: is really being compared to Europe's kind of Trump moment. 608 00:29:57,840 --> 00:30:00,520 Speaker 3: So one day, I'm in a restaurant insect a part South. 609 00:30:00,400 --> 00:30:03,320 Speaker 2: Kritty Gupta, and my back is to the door. It's 610 00:30:03,400 --> 00:30:05,440 Speaker 2: right behind me, and there's a stir you could feel 611 00:30:05,480 --> 00:30:09,240 Speaker 2: the restaurant stirring. And I turn around and there is Shack. 612 00:30:10,040 --> 00:30:12,960 Speaker 2: There is Shaquille O'Neal with an entourage of four or five, 613 00:30:13,040 --> 00:30:17,560 Speaker 2: six people In Kritty the shack is carrying the Lewis 614 00:30:17,600 --> 00:30:22,600 Speaker 2: Viwton steamer bag forty five that Audrey Heppern used in charade. 615 00:30:23,120 --> 00:30:24,440 Speaker 3: Okay, this puppy comes in. 616 00:30:24,520 --> 00:30:26,960 Speaker 2: This is a big bag, folks, that shack can carry 617 00:30:26,960 --> 00:30:28,280 Speaker 2: around his tax forms. 618 00:30:29,080 --> 00:30:30,040 Speaker 3: And he's a big guy. 619 00:30:30,120 --> 00:30:34,480 Speaker 2: Yeah, big guy, big bag five nine hundred and fifty dollars. 620 00:30:35,040 --> 00:30:37,960 Speaker 2: Does Kritty koopta just teck one thousand bucks on? 621 00:30:38,040 --> 00:30:39,920 Speaker 3: That? Is that how this is going to work. 622 00:30:42,320 --> 00:30:44,880 Speaker 9: Kreaty Gupta doesn't tack anything on anything, but it's a 623 00:30:44,880 --> 00:30:48,440 Speaker 9: great example of why Americans come to Europe to buy 624 00:30:48,840 --> 00:30:51,520 Speaker 9: the same bag, for example, for much much less. And 625 00:30:51,560 --> 00:30:54,320 Speaker 9: it's kind of addressing another key piece that Donald Trump 626 00:30:54,360 --> 00:30:56,680 Speaker 9: likes to talk about in this terrafour and the reciprocal tearfour, 627 00:30:56,760 --> 00:31:00,000 Speaker 9: which is not just tariffs that are put on product, 628 00:31:00,120 --> 00:31:02,280 Speaker 9: but things what he's calling non tariff barrier. So that 629 00:31:02,320 --> 00:31:05,640 Speaker 9: includes things like regulation, it also includes things like VAT. 630 00:31:05,880 --> 00:31:07,440 Speaker 9: I have plenty of friends from both sides of the 631 00:31:07,480 --> 00:31:11,440 Speaker 9: Atlantic who've gone to the EU, bought them, bought say 632 00:31:11,480 --> 00:31:14,720 Speaker 9: an Apple iPhone product for example, bought them in that country, 633 00:31:14,920 --> 00:31:18,040 Speaker 9: come back and kind of redeemed the VAT refund. That 634 00:31:18,200 --> 00:31:20,720 Speaker 9: is the key piece of this agenda, and that things 635 00:31:20,800 --> 00:31:25,120 Speaker 9: cost more abroad and maybe less expensive on the your 636 00:31:25,120 --> 00:31:27,040 Speaker 9: op union. That's the kind of economics that the Trump 637 00:31:27,040 --> 00:31:28,520 Speaker 9: administration is trying to tackle. 638 00:31:28,720 --> 00:31:35,240 Speaker 2: Pretty group to thanks so much, greatly appreciated. 639 00:31:36,640 --> 00:31:40,520 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday 640 00:31:40,560 --> 00:31:43,600 Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Apple Corplay and Android 641 00:31:43,600 --> 00:31:46,600 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch 642 00:31:46,680 --> 00:31:49,640 Speaker 1: us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the 643 00:31:49,640 --> 00:31:50,720 Speaker 1: Bloomberg terminal. 644 00:31:50,840 --> 00:31:52,920 Speaker 3: The newspapers, Lisa Matteo, what do you have? 645 00:31:53,160 --> 00:31:53,440 Speaker 5: Okay? 646 00:31:53,440 --> 00:31:56,040 Speaker 10: So Yankees in the spotlight right everybody's talking about it. 647 00:31:56,480 --> 00:31:58,320 Speaker 5: I knew your Star stadium on. 648 00:31:58,360 --> 00:32:00,920 Speaker 10: Say I was there, Saddy, I was there for. 649 00:32:01,000 --> 00:32:02,560 Speaker 5: The twenty Yeah. 650 00:32:03,120 --> 00:32:06,520 Speaker 10: Well nine in one game, that was crazy, but fifteen 651 00:32:06,640 --> 00:32:09,880 Speaker 10: total in three games, I mean, come on, it was incredible. 652 00:32:10,800 --> 00:32:12,440 Speaker 5: But the reports are. 653 00:32:12,360 --> 00:32:15,959 Speaker 10: Saying it's because of these new torpedo bats that they have. 654 00:32:16,240 --> 00:32:18,280 Speaker 10: So it's all about the way the weight is distributed 655 00:32:18,280 --> 00:32:20,440 Speaker 10: in the bat, So the wood is moved lower near 656 00:32:20,480 --> 00:32:23,680 Speaker 10: the barrel right after the label. So basically it's putting 657 00:32:23,680 --> 00:32:25,400 Speaker 10: the masks in the sweet spot, like where you want 658 00:32:25,440 --> 00:32:25,840 Speaker 10: to hit the. 659 00:32:25,760 --> 00:32:29,800 Speaker 3: Ball, but we want twenty run games? Do we want? 660 00:32:31,200 --> 00:32:34,160 Speaker 10: Like it was right off the bat, it was like one, two, three, 661 00:32:34,200 --> 00:32:35,360 Speaker 10: and it was like whoa. 662 00:32:35,080 --> 00:32:37,440 Speaker 5: Okay, Okay, well, I don't know. I guess there's questions. 663 00:32:37,640 --> 00:32:39,480 Speaker 5: Are the bats contributing to these home runs? 664 00:32:39,480 --> 00:32:39,880 Speaker 3: I don't know? 665 00:32:40,440 --> 00:32:41,840 Speaker 5: Right, And that's what. 666 00:32:42,120 --> 00:32:44,080 Speaker 10: Just to put it out there, Aaron Judge did not 667 00:32:44,280 --> 00:32:46,160 Speaker 10: use one of those bats, and he used a regular 668 00:32:46,200 --> 00:32:49,640 Speaker 10: conventional bat Classic, but it was developed by an MIT 669 00:32:49,840 --> 00:32:52,680 Speaker 10: physicist turned Marlin coach, Aaron Right. 670 00:32:53,040 --> 00:32:56,280 Speaker 3: It sounds like a Jimmy Stewart movie. It happens every 671 00:32:56,320 --> 00:32:59,920 Speaker 3: spring from a million years ago. Next, if we go on, 672 00:33:00,480 --> 00:33:02,360 Speaker 3: it's all I'm going to talk about. I think it's 673 00:33:02,360 --> 00:33:03,040 Speaker 3: so stupid. 674 00:33:04,320 --> 00:33:06,560 Speaker 10: Oh okay, so we have to go to Costco. Right, Okay, 675 00:33:07,560 --> 00:33:11,600 Speaker 10: let's go the Kirkland signature brand that it uses at 676 00:33:11,600 --> 00:33:15,000 Speaker 10: private label. It's actually using it as a negotiating tool 677 00:33:15,000 --> 00:33:18,600 Speaker 10: with suppliers because it's been so successful. I mean it 678 00:33:18,640 --> 00:33:21,160 Speaker 10: created it like three decades ago. Right, makes everything from 679 00:33:21,200 --> 00:33:22,520 Speaker 10: like toilet paper to. 680 00:33:22,600 --> 00:33:26,120 Speaker 5: Vodka private brands. Yes, I have to admit I've been 681 00:33:26,120 --> 00:33:27,200 Speaker 5: going private brand. 682 00:33:26,960 --> 00:33:30,400 Speaker 10: Over the brand and it's catching on twenty twenty four 683 00:33:30,400 --> 00:33:33,000 Speaker 10: sales of private labels like Kirkland grew about four times 684 00:33:33,040 --> 00:33:35,520 Speaker 10: faster than national brand so it was a record high. 685 00:33:35,640 --> 00:33:37,440 Speaker 10: But the co founder telling the Wall Street Journal kind 686 00:33:37,440 --> 00:33:39,120 Speaker 10: of the story behind it, like they started with this 687 00:33:39,240 --> 00:33:41,840 Speaker 10: idea of selling a limited number of brands, but sell 688 00:33:41,960 --> 00:33:44,680 Speaker 10: a lot of them, and then they decided, you know what, 689 00:33:44,680 --> 00:33:47,040 Speaker 10: We're going to introduce the own brand because you know, 690 00:33:47,200 --> 00:33:50,720 Speaker 10: keeps keeps it going. But Kirkland attracts customers who like 691 00:33:50,760 --> 00:33:53,760 Speaker 10: the lower prices. But yes, it's allowing them to dictate 692 00:33:53,840 --> 00:33:56,800 Speaker 10: what they want for their shoppers. So for example, they're 693 00:33:56,840 --> 00:34:01,120 Speaker 10: negotiating like tied detergent and ziploc bags, they can negotiate that, 694 00:34:01,320 --> 00:34:03,200 Speaker 10: and the egg up date is still the same price. 695 00:34:03,680 --> 00:34:06,080 Speaker 3: If they haven't come down, what a shot shot. 696 00:34:06,120 --> 00:34:08,240 Speaker 10: But they're not going up, so that that's the good news. 697 00:34:08,320 --> 00:34:09,160 Speaker 3: Okay. 698 00:34:09,360 --> 00:34:12,759 Speaker 5: Next, have either of you gotten your real I D yet? 699 00:34:12,920 --> 00:34:13,280 Speaker 3: No? 700 00:34:13,520 --> 00:34:17,160 Speaker 5: What as it's a new jersey, you can't get. You 701 00:34:17,239 --> 00:34:19,600 Speaker 5: go into the website, you can't get you can't. It's 702 00:34:19,600 --> 00:34:20,520 Speaker 5: hard to get an appointment. 703 00:34:20,560 --> 00:34:21,719 Speaker 10: I got mine like last year. 704 00:34:21,719 --> 00:34:22,879 Speaker 5: Because this is. 705 00:34:25,800 --> 00:34:27,839 Speaker 10: It's like you're supposed to do it. This has been 706 00:34:27,920 --> 00:34:30,000 Speaker 10: like years in the making, has been delayed since a 707 00:34:30,080 --> 00:34:33,080 Speaker 10: pandemic like three times. But the deadline is May seventh, 708 00:34:33,320 --> 00:34:35,880 Speaker 10: So now everyone is like rushing, but they're not making. 709 00:34:35,680 --> 00:34:38,080 Speaker 5: It easy just click a button. I gotta go to deal. 710 00:34:38,280 --> 00:34:41,520 Speaker 10: You have to go in person with your points of ID, 711 00:34:41,760 --> 00:34:42,960 Speaker 10: like you have to go there. 712 00:34:44,920 --> 00:34:48,879 Speaker 5: The travislations worked worked well. It's been many years since 713 00:34:49,160 --> 00:34:49,880 Speaker 5: I read about this. 714 00:34:49,960 --> 00:34:50,399 Speaker 3: Last night. 715 00:34:50,800 --> 00:34:54,640 Speaker 2: Texas wins. They have like eighty percent or whatever because 716 00:34:54,680 --> 00:34:55,680 Speaker 2: they made it simple. 717 00:34:56,040 --> 00:34:58,359 Speaker 3: Yeah, and is like in the last. 718 00:34:58,080 --> 00:35:03,120 Speaker 2: Place twenty percent or whatever. I use my passport. 719 00:35:03,200 --> 00:35:05,799 Speaker 5: Yes, you can't still use the passport for domestic it's 720 00:35:05,880 --> 00:35:09,719 Speaker 5: just for the global entry. That also, I think is 721 00:35:09,760 --> 00:35:13,760 Speaker 5: a substitute. I've got that card. Yeah. 722 00:35:13,800 --> 00:35:15,279 Speaker 10: But the weird thing is that they have like d 723 00:35:15,400 --> 00:35:18,080 Speaker 10: MV lines are crazy and scalpers. They're hawking appointments. 724 00:35:18,480 --> 00:35:19,720 Speaker 8: These appointments, now. 725 00:35:22,960 --> 00:35:24,239 Speaker 3: Whatever's Texas doing? 726 00:35:24,400 --> 00:35:25,719 Speaker 5: Just do it, Texas. 727 00:35:25,800 --> 00:35:26,719 Speaker 6: Yeah, so get on it. 728 00:35:26,800 --> 00:35:30,080 Speaker 10: May seventh deadline. Make sure you do it. You are 729 00:35:30,120 --> 00:35:31,239 Speaker 10: going to be crazy. 730 00:35:31,480 --> 00:35:32,239 Speaker 5: Yes, you're right. 731 00:35:32,600 --> 00:35:36,160 Speaker 2: So it's like it's like March thirty first, is the 732 00:35:36,239 --> 00:35:37,960 Speaker 2: season over for the Red Sox. 733 00:35:39,080 --> 00:35:43,359 Speaker 3: Can we go there already? Oh? It was painful, It's 734 00:35:43,480 --> 00:35:52,080 Speaker 3: just yeah, get some fay FM in Boston. 735 00:35:52,120 --> 00:35:54,799 Speaker 2: There's a red Sox banner on the top of Mount 736 00:35:54,920 --> 00:35:56,000 Speaker 2: Washington this morning. 737 00:35:56,640 --> 00:35:58,800 Speaker 3: The newspapers Lisa Tape. 738 00:35:58,920 --> 00:36:03,320 Speaker 1: Thank You So Much is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available 739 00:36:03,400 --> 00:36:07,040 Speaker 1: on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. 740 00:36:07,560 --> 00:36:11,080 Speaker 1: Listen live each weekday, seven to ten am Eastern on 741 00:36:11,160 --> 00:36:15,080 Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app tune In, and the 742 00:36:15,120 --> 00:36:18,640 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us live every 743 00:36:18,719 --> 00:36:22,160 Speaker 1: weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg terminal.