Speaker 1: Welcome in everybody to Fantasy Bros.
Speaker 2: M LB.
Speaker 1: This is Leading Off Live, brought to you by Prize Picks.
Speaker 1: Make sure you sign up Dave for Prize Picks and
Speaker 1: use that promo code leading off when you do. It's
Speaker 1: me Joey Paijo, Pi's a pea. That of course is
Speaker 1: the Welsh and it's you, my people, the Peanuts, the
Speaker 1: Cracker Jacks. I see people getting caught up on yesterday's show.
Speaker 1: People thought, oh, it's a Thursday, the light slate, maybe
Speaker 1: i'll skip leading off. Well you shouldn't have because you
Speaker 1: might have missed the show of the year. But you
Speaker 1: missed it. You go back and watch, especially around that
Speaker 1: you just got deleted. Well, I'm just happy to see
Speaker 1: you here today after yesterday. That's all. It's good to
Speaker 1: see you.
Speaker 2: I'm gonna point back out though, that of all the
Speaker 2: people that were okay, it was actually me, it's all you.
Speaker 1: That should be absolutely true. Yeah, you, the Peanuts and
Speaker 1: the Cracker Jacks are the are the naughty ones. You
Speaker 1: are naughty. Welsh just made a common, easy mistake in
Speaker 1: his brain. That's it, And did you the rest of you?
Speaker 1: Mine's in the gutter, Mine's in the gutter. But anyway,
Speaker 1: let's talk in a little baseball because we've got a
Speaker 1: lot to get to here on the program today, as
Speaker 1: we always do, and let's start at the top here
Speaker 1: because Natan Valdi Welsh, what an incredible run this guy's
Speaker 1: been on. He was our number one trade target a
Speaker 1: few weeks ago, and he just continues to pilot on
Speaker 1: eleven eleven strikeouts, eight and two third scoreles innings. If
Speaker 1: you look right now, I was just peeping the MLB
Speaker 1: ERA leaders, and I'm sure this is the grouping that
Speaker 1: you had going into the season as we look into
Speaker 1: mid May. Here, this is the grouping of people who
Speaker 1: have sub two eras you ready for this, Sonny Gray
Speaker 1: with a one three five, I'm sure we all had that,
Speaker 1: Edward Rodriguez one five to seven. Sure we all have
Speaker 1: that Alex Cobb, who were going to talk about in
Speaker 1: a second, and Bryce Elder at one point seven to four.
Speaker 1: Also Seane McLanahan justin Steele, and then if you look
Speaker 1: a little bit past there, Nathany Evaldi at two point
Speaker 1: seven zero. But if you throw out those first couple
Speaker 1: of rocky starts where things just really bad luck, he
Speaker 1: would be right there in this mix. And this is
Speaker 1: why it's so important Welsh. When you you know, deep
Speaker 1: stats sometimes get a little confusing and overwhelming. But when
Speaker 1: you see a guy who's ERA is high, and you
Speaker 1: see that FIP and that x FIP and that XCRA
Speaker 1: are all significantly lower, you buy, buy.
Speaker 2: Buy. It actually really hurts me because we didn't like
Speaker 2: go through all the names. But when you had me
Speaker 2: give an example for our betting Pros video out there
Speaker 2: of ladder betting, I promise you I looked at Nateaniyivaldi
Speaker 2: because he can get strikeouts in there, but I just
Speaker 2: decided Darvish made a little bit more sense by the way.
Speaker 2: It didn't hit on the ladder, but it did hit
Speaker 2: the first two legs, which is like the most important
Speaker 2: of it. But Ivaldi would have been like a prime
Speaker 2: example of that. His K percentage is the highest of
Speaker 2: his career by like a decent margin two Only one
Speaker 2: time has he ever had it over twenty six percent.
Speaker 2: He's a twenty seven percent. He's paired that with the
Speaker 2: lowest walk percentage of his career. He's expected and actual
Speaker 2: era are in the same general area. He's giving up
Speaker 2: the lowest barrels of his career. I mean, there's something
Speaker 2: to be said about this team context of what's going
Speaker 2: on with the Texas Rangers. He is a total secret
Speaker 2: little a sitting back there, and it's been a big benefit.
Speaker 2: We did talk about him like at least over the
Speaker 2: last month and a month ago, so you know.
Speaker 1: I tried, like wells, I tried like hell to get him.
Speaker 1: I could not pry him away after the first like
Speaker 1: two leagues. I was trying so hard. I throughout like
Speaker 1: the real good trade offers too, I thought Riovaldi. But
Speaker 1: both of those people they must watch the show that
Speaker 1: can only and they're sitting at the top right now.
Speaker 1: The Texas Rangers. They are twenty three and fourteen. They're
Speaker 1: head of the Houston Extro's ahead of the Angels, ahead
Speaker 1: of Seattle, and of course everyone's ahead of Oakland because
Speaker 1: that's just well that's Oakland. But an incredible, incredible run
Speaker 1: here to open up the season for Nathan E Valdi,
Speaker 1: there's no doubt about that. Alex Cobb has been pretty
Speaker 1: amazing too. We could talk about Amy for a second.
Speaker 1: Not too shabby as well. Cobb seven and a third
Speaker 1: shot of things. His era's at one seventy he's in
Speaker 1: that group. Also, let's talk a little bit about Mason
Speaker 1: Miller on the fifteen day Injured list. He's a we
Speaker 1: did go on the IL. Now we don't know how
Speaker 1: long he's gonna be out because we heard that the
Speaker 1: MRI was clear. But obviously, as I told you yesterday,
Speaker 1: he still got pain. So we're looking for that timetable.
Speaker 1: They say, oh, relatively soon, But I'm not listening to
Speaker 1: that relatively soon nonsense. I'm thinking, once again, if you've
Speaker 1: got a prime pitching prospect and a team that's going nowhere,
Speaker 1: there's absolutely no reason to rush this kid. I would
Speaker 1: be surprised if we saw him May. I think you're
Speaker 1: looking more like mid to late June. What are your
Speaker 1: thoughts on Mason Miller's potential return now that he's officially
Speaker 1: on the IL.
Speaker 2: I think it's June, but I don't think it's late June.
Speaker 2: I think like a month could be the territory of
Speaker 2: this whole thing, So I would be looking at mid May.
Speaker 2: But again, this is what I said, before you got
Speaker 2: an IL. You're great. You're only in a tricky spot
Speaker 2: if you're in these no IL league, if you're in
Speaker 2: like an NBC league that you have to sit, you're
Speaker 2: probably gonna have to sit a month, and he is
Speaker 2: worth doing that. He's worth sitting for the month because
Speaker 2: I want to say that there's only like a finite
Speaker 2: amount of these guys. But what is buried and I
Speaker 2: put on the sheet. But let's just talk about it now, Joe,
Speaker 2: because it is as big of it's a bigger piece
Speaker 2: of news than anything we're talking about. It is URI
Speaker 2: pres Day and this is really one of the biggest
Speaker 2: things out here. So when you want to talk about
Speaker 2: prospect pitching, the amount of fab and amount of the
Speaker 2: cost of what URI is going to come out from
Speaker 2: this weekend, especially this matchup. This matchup is killer. It's
Speaker 2: going to be in the same lines of what happened
Speaker 2: with Mason Miller, and you're not gonna want to just
Speaker 2: give up. So Mason Miller, I think it's about a month.
Speaker 2: I think he'll be okay. I think this will actually
Speaker 2: line him up as long as a recovery comes okay
Speaker 2: to being able to kind of finish out the year,
Speaker 2: because he wasn't gonna be able to put a whole
Speaker 2: bunch of innings in. So I think you can hold tight.
Speaker 2: But Joe Piezapia. This is jury presday, man, this is
Speaker 2: what do we do.
Speaker 1: I mean, look, look, I wanted to give the flowers
Speaker 1: to the Valdi's and the Cobs because they those guys
Speaker 1: don't get enough attention. Now we talk about Gallonist writer
Speaker 1: and you know, Garrit Cole and all the usual suspects
Speaker 1: when it comes to pitching. But there's been some guys
Speaker 1: getting and we continue to, you know, take our shots
Speaker 1: at the White Sox guys, and take our shots at
Speaker 1: you know, Jacob de Gram and all these other pitchers
Speaker 1: that are constantly either injured or disappointing. So I wanted
Speaker 1: to I want to give some love too.
Speaker 2: Well, you're you're a great wing man. I'll take the
Speaker 2: bell of the ball and you take the ball. Thank
Speaker 2: you for picking up the rents.
Speaker 1: Well, let's see if Euriy Perez puts out today. That's
Speaker 1: what we're gonna see today. So six years so far
Speaker 1: that he uh is pitched in the minor leagues again
Speaker 1: at double A. So he's making the jump from double
Speaker 1: A to triple A. Thirty one innings, two point three
Speaker 1: two e ra a, forty two strikeouts and thirty one
Speaker 1: innings just nine walks at point eighty one whip for
Speaker 1: Euri Perez, So it's a very exciting time to be
Speaker 1: live for Perez. Is gonna be fascinating to see what
Speaker 1: it looks like as we you know, on the weekend,
Speaker 1: especially he's facing the reds, which means there's a good
Speaker 1: chance that starts gonna look pretty good. He's at home,
Speaker 1: a lot of positive things trending in his direction. You're
Speaker 1: gonna see, We're he's gonna come up later on the show.
Speaker 1: And the betting stuff too, because he's got a line
Speaker 1: of four and a half strikeouts of the over today,
Speaker 1: so I'm all over that piece. Also before we get
Speaker 1: to the injuries Welsh, because that's obviously there's a lot
Speaker 1: of them today, a lot of injury notes as we
Speaker 1: had to the weekend, rehab assignments, all this stuff. A
Speaker 1: fan of the show, friend of the show, Chris Evans,
Speaker 1: who listens to the show all the time, loves the show.
Speaker 1: Can't it enough of Joey p on the Welsh. Not
Speaker 1: that Chris Evans, it's a different Chris Evans, but not
Speaker 1: a letter Chris Eppens, mind you. But Chris had a
Speaker 1: homework assignment and he had to interview somebody in the media,
Speaker 1: and he chose me, this idiot and guess what there
Speaker 1: it is good Friday. All here is from Chris. Just
Speaker 1: want to let you know I got my grades back
Speaker 1: earlier this week and got a hundred on my informative interview.
Speaker 1: He's a communications major, I believe, finished with an A
Speaker 1: in the class naturally, So congratulations Chris. This is us
Speaker 1: giving back to the youth of America. I feel like
Speaker 1: but very cool here. So I took some time out
Speaker 1: with Chris. We did some discussions about you know, working
Speaker 1: in broadcasting and media stuff and book writing and all
Speaker 1: these fun things, and it was a really good time.
Speaker 1: So congrats to Chris. And if anybody else has a
Speaker 1: homework assignment Welsh just free this weekend that they can
Speaker 1: help that. Yeah, you gotta get you got a bio
Speaker 1: chem for Welsh over his way.
Speaker 2: Hey, you know what, anyone else have got any other homework?
Speaker 2: You got any other just let me know. I'll give
Speaker 2: you Joe's number. Just here. I give you Joe's phone number.
Speaker 2: I'll let you call him.
Speaker 1: I give you a call. It'll be fun. Here's a
Speaker 1: fun one from uh let's see from Renegade Envy rest
Speaker 1: of season Vine pas Quentino. What do you guys think?
Speaker 1: Where would you rate him? This is from a renegade
Speaker 1: Envy gak a lot of past Quentino. Look, why is
Speaker 1: everybody he's been good?
Speaker 2: Like?
Speaker 1: What are we worried about here? I don't understand.
Speaker 2: I like the rate. Do you remember that that website
Speaker 2: Hot or Not? That he's like way back, like you
Speaker 2: put a photo up and you know you're masochistic, put
Speaker 2: your photo up and then you know people just tear
Speaker 2: you apart. I feel like that's what he's asking because
Speaker 2: I don't know what the rate would be here, But
Speaker 2: I mean i'd probably give Vinnie like a he's like
Speaker 2: a five on the Hot or Not scale show.
Speaker 1: I think he's right in the middle for you. I mean, look,
Speaker 1: if you look at the numbers, that not bad.
Speaker 2: I mean, oh, we were just talking about hot or not.
Speaker 2: He's not very hot. N he's not very hot right now, but.
Speaker 1: He's a Look, he's I would say a mid. He's
Speaker 1: a good friend fantasy first, not great, but good. He's
Speaker 1: not well, who do we say that was mid yesterday?
Speaker 1: I say, I can't remember now, Oh, oh, Alex Bregman.
Speaker 1: Maybe he's not quite. I guess he's in that same tier.
Speaker 1: I guess after all we started looking at the numbers.
Speaker 1: They're closer than you'd think.
Speaker 2: But he has been fine. He has been fine. Seven homers,
Speaker 2: his average is ticked back up into the two.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna have those ebbs and flows.
Speaker 2: The problem though, And this was the thing we knew
Speaker 2: in the season, and I got stuff wrong on the inverse,
Speaker 2: like I wasn't like crazy about Vinnie, and I like
Speaker 2: Joseah Bray, you that didn't look good. Those run in
Speaker 2: RBI numbers are never gonna look good for Vinnie. There's
Speaker 2: just not enough base runners and not enough guys in
Speaker 2: scoring positions. So Vinnie's gonna be one of those guys
Speaker 2: that's gonna hit thirty homers, good batting average, but he's
Speaker 2: not have like eighty run eighty RBI. So yeah, I
Speaker 2: don't I don't know what we're talking about here. He's fine,
Speaker 2: He's totally fine.
Speaker 1: I think he's frustrating head to head because you're gonna
Speaker 1: have some downturns. But in season long, Rodo just said
Speaker 1: it and forget it. Here's one for Michael C. Speaking
Speaker 1: of hot or not, what would you all do with
Speaker 1: Jose Bray when Oscar Andandez. I'm holding to Oscar, but
Speaker 1: I'm looking elsewhere for Jose and bra That's yeah, concert,
Speaker 1: there you go, there you go. You can't get advice
Speaker 1: like that anywhere else. Let's talk about injuries here. Jose L.
Speaker 1: Tubay will begin his minor leg minor league rehab assignment
Speaker 1: today at Triple A, so that's very exciting. Uh. The
Speaker 1: Dodgers activated Jade Martinez, which is probably less exciting. So
Speaker 1: if someone dropped him, you could speculate, but I'm not
Speaker 1: holding out to my breath at all. Wander Franco, Uh,
Speaker 1: yesterday had some neck issues. He says he's gonna play today,
Speaker 1: So just keep an eye out in those daily transaction
Speaker 1: leagues and daily line up leagues. T J. Friedel let's
Speaker 1: get undergo an MRI after being removed from Thursday's game
Speaker 1: with side soreness. So Welsh, does this start to open up?
Speaker 1: Mister Christian and Carnots.
Speaker 2: And Jack Nicholson, That's what I'm doing right now. Yeah, yes,
Speaker 2: And here's what you do right here, I cans together.
Speaker 2: Here's what you do, Cincinnati. It's super easy. You take
Speaker 2: Nixon Zel and you put him in the outfield. He
Speaker 2: can replace TJ. Friedel. Then what you do is you
Speaker 2: bring up Christian and Carnacion Strand and you put him
Speaker 2: over at third base.
Speaker 1: But then you moved to Steer to first.
Speaker 2: Ye, Steer has been playing first. He's been playing more
Speaker 2: majority first, that's.
Speaker 1: Sure, he has been playing more.
Speaker 2: Then what you do is you phantom ghost injury whoever
Speaker 2: you think you're playing a shortstop and you bring up
Speaker 2: Ellie Da La Cruz.
Speaker 1: And then what you do gone full tinfoil helmet on
Speaker 1: me here.
Speaker 2: And then what you do is you get Nancy Kerrigan
Speaker 2: to come in here and why why?
Speaker 1: And then you Nancy Carrigan doesn't do it. Tarya Harding
Speaker 1: does what you welshed it again?
Speaker 2: You definitely whichever one. Sorry I didn't get my.
Speaker 1: There's an alternate universe where Nancy Kerrigan took a pipe
Speaker 1: to Tanya Harding.
Speaker 2: What good episode if?
Speaker 1: That would be a great episode of what if? What if?
Speaker 1: Nancy Kerrigan was like, I don't like that story of
Speaker 1: the trailer park girl who's gonna win the hearts and
Speaker 1: minds of America. I'm gonna take her out.
Speaker 2: You know what I like too, is Tanya harding, Like
Speaker 2: after all of that and all that negative famous stuff,
Speaker 2: she went like full trailer park, after she did every
Speaker 2: trailer park thing you.
Speaker 1: Can do, celebrity boxing.
Speaker 2: Remember Beyond, Yeah and Beyond.
Speaker 1: That's a great movie. Did you see the movie? By
Speaker 1: the way, what Tanya?
Speaker 2: I love? What's what's her name that?
Speaker 1: I'll never forget? What's her name?
Speaker 2: I'll never forget? You can't you know, Harley Quinn?
Speaker 1: I know I want to see if you can name her.
Speaker 2: I can't know. You can't you you don't know the
Speaker 2: name either. Jo's of course I know the name.
Speaker 1: I want to see if you can.
Speaker 2: I don't know. I can't take of her name right now?
Speaker 1: Come on, Well, she's a great nameou is actress?
Speaker 2: No, I know it's it's not there. It's I'm not
Speaker 2: gonna try. Thank you, Marco, Robbie, thank you.
Speaker 1: What happened to help him out?
Speaker 2: Yes today, I'm not saying Jack, I'm not saying anything.
Speaker 1: Yes, longo. Robbie is in its, Sebastian stan is in it.
Speaker 1: It's it's tremendous, really really well done, well written directed
Speaker 1: movie too. You haven't seen it? Check it out there
Speaker 1: you go, there's a movie on the weekend it here's
Speaker 1: some other stuff. So after all that, I love your
Speaker 1: conspiracy theory about the Reds to you. Look, now's the time,
Speaker 1: even re draft leagues, I'd be adding Ellie Della Cruz
Speaker 1: now just why why not like Adam for a buck?
Speaker 1: Stick them on the bench. What hap?
Speaker 2: Ellie's on another level right now, and ultimately Ces is
Speaker 2: going to play first for this team. This is what
Speaker 2: he did in spring when I saw him. Ellie's been
Speaker 2: playing third base in Triple A. He'll be the third
Speaker 2: baseman and Matt McClain will be the shorts up. That
Speaker 2: will be the setup. But Ces could play third right now.
Speaker 2: I guess it also leaves an opportunity if the team
Speaker 2: really wanted to say screw it and they wanted Ellie
Speaker 2: to be that third baseman, they could just bring up
Speaker 2: Ellie and he could beat Cees either way. The TJ.
Speaker 2: Friedles stuff opens up an opportunity for them to finally
Speaker 2: let loose one of Yeah, I mean, that might be
Speaker 2: the hottest Triple A team in baseball right now, with
Speaker 2: the amount of prospects that are ready to become to
Speaker 2: the majors.
Speaker 1: Yeah, there you go. All right, let's continue on here
Speaker 1: some fantastic things in the chat by the way. By
Speaker 1: the way, Margot Robbie hell of an actress too. I
Speaker 1: just want to say, it's.
Speaker 2: Just I mean, that's the whole, that's part of the whole.
Speaker 1: Back could a great actress too, But she is. She
Speaker 1: was really. I mean, Wolf of Wall Sheet's a crazy movie.
Speaker 1: She was very good in that. I'm trying to think
Speaker 1: of some other things I've seen her, but I Tania
Speaker 1: is tremendous, Like you know, she's better than just the
Speaker 1: Harley Quinn stuff that she's done.
Speaker 2: Rumored to be uh up for Sue Storm.
Speaker 1: Oh really is that that? You want? That fantastic four four? Yes?
Speaker 2: All about that?
Speaker 1: Here you go, Carlos Rodon, he could use a little
Speaker 1: fantastic for action there. Maybe we can know whatever whatever
Speaker 1: the stretchy guy had, Maybe we can get that for
Speaker 1: Carlos Rodon because Richard's thank you the stretchy guy. You
Speaker 1: like that he threw from flat ground today or is
Speaker 1: going to? I should say, so, we'll see how that goes.
Speaker 2: Another type say what other type of ground? But I
Speaker 2: guess I could be on the mound, like when I
Speaker 2: hear that it's such a stupid thing like he threw
Speaker 2: from flat ground, So it's like he just could like throw,
Speaker 2: he could tell us to me through for the mound
Speaker 2: and just say he threw otherwise, I don't know.
Speaker 1: That's like a little It's really concerning. And this investment
Speaker 1: that the Yankees maide in Rodin is even more concerning
Speaker 1: at this point. And I really thought this was smart
Speaker 1: by them. I was like, hey, maybe this guy's turned
Speaker 1: a corner. Last year was terrific for Sam, for Cisco.
Speaker 1: Like you knew it was never gonna be perfect. There's
Speaker 1: gonna be some miss time here and there. But the
Speaker 1: fact that we're in, you know, the twelfth of May
Speaker 1: and he hasn't thrown a pitch yet, that's disturbing. Luis
Speaker 1: Severino less disturbing. We'll make another rehab start on Tuesday.
Speaker 1: So if he makes another rehab start Tuesday and the
Speaker 1: ups evenings through about five, which is the expectation, I
Speaker 1: think the last one he had three and change, I
Speaker 1: would imagine maybe by the weekend you get him back,
Speaker 1: if not the following week. So Seva Reno's getting close again.
Speaker 1: If someone dropped him, or if you're looking for pitching,
Speaker 1: maybe go out there acquire him get a little ahead
Speaker 1: of the game. Liam Hendricks was behind the game yesterday.
Speaker 1: So good in his first outing, not so good yesterday,
Speaker 1: allowed four runs, only recorded two outs yesterday in the rehab.
Speaker 1: But again, oftentimes we see these guys in spring trading.
Speaker 1: They look good for a couple outings, then they have
Speaker 1: a blow uper outing or two, and then they're back
Speaker 1: on track. It's just part of getting ready. Quote unquote,
Speaker 1: Corey Seeger's getting ready. He had a two run double
Speaker 1: yesterday in his minor league rehab assignment at Double A.
Speaker 1: Frisco Raised manager Kevin Cash said that Tyler Glass now
Speaker 1: will make a minor league rehab start also on Tuesday.
Speaker 2: He's still on schedule, and then he's gonna make one more.
Speaker 2: So just pointing out to everybody, I actually think he
Speaker 2: I thought I saw he was gonna pitch today and
Speaker 2: then pitch next week. But either way, he's gonna have
Speaker 2: two more rehab assignments, and as long as we don't
Speaker 2: have another incident like we just had, then he's gonna
Speaker 2: come back up to the majors.
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Speaker 1: experience more. And now back to the action. Here's a
Speaker 1: really good question from Dylan Love. Would you drop Toash
Speaker 1: Bradley to stash cees enough pitching? I think I would.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I will. I don't know if I talked about
Speaker 2: this and if I talked about it here at all,
Speaker 2: but like I finally did some of that research, did
Speaker 2: it with Eno and DVR on.
Speaker 1: Todds about it yesterday?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I was speculating on some stuff and sure enough,
Speaker 2: So what I ended up doing is I went and
Speaker 2: saw his last start in the majors and I compared
Speaker 2: it to both of his minor league starts, and they
Speaker 2: are messing with Todd Bradley. They've clearly have him doing
Speaker 2: other stuff. Here's what's happening. Fastball percentage is overtaking the cutter.
Speaker 2: He threw his cutter more than anything in the majors.
Speaker 2: That's dropped from around forty six percent down to around
Speaker 2: thirty percent in the majors. They've also essentially told him
Speaker 2: to scrap his curveball, and ENO backed this all up
Speaker 2: by stuff plus numbers saying that the fastball graded higher
Speaker 2: than the cutter, which is why he's switching there, and
Speaker 2: the curve was the lowest graded on stuff plus. It's
Speaker 2: a very analytically driven team. So the whole point of
Speaker 2: this is to say, like he's been having struggles in
Speaker 2: the miners and everyone's wondering why. It's because they have
Speaker 2: him kind of changing up his ript and I think
Speaker 2: that is causing a lot of this. And you know,
Speaker 2: sometimes it doesn't matter the results. They want this change. Plus,
Speaker 2: they haven't even put him on the five day rotation
Speaker 2: yet he's still in a six day rotation.
Speaker 1: Here's the wacky thing about that too, which I don't understand.
Speaker 1: If I know the cutter. They'll say that sometimes that
Speaker 1: puts more stress on the arm, that pitch as well.
Speaker 1: That's one of those things. So I can understand if
Speaker 1: they wanted him to back off of it while they were,
Speaker 1: you know, trying to catch him up to that five
Speaker 1: man rotation. This is this is where we started to
Speaker 1: speculate on it, I think yesterday, the day before. And
Speaker 1: if you know, if that's the case, and you know
Speaker 1: they're going to bring him back and then let him
Speaker 1: use the cutter more, that would make sense. But if
Speaker 1: he's getting crappy results, changing the repertoire, why would you
Speaker 1: want to do that to it? Why would you want
Speaker 1: to do that? Why would you want to do that
Speaker 1: to a kid who is just starting to show you
Speaker 1: that he's ready for the big leagues. Comes up, he
Speaker 1: looks great in triple A, comes up to the big leagues,
Speaker 1: smoking everybody, and then you're changing things up and next
Speaker 1: thing you know, now the results are bad. I don't know.
Speaker 2: I mean it's computer nerd stuff. It's the analytics said
Speaker 2: they need him to be like nerds, and they want
Speaker 2: this pitch over here to kind of be a lot like.
Speaker 1: He was throwing his curve ball cutter.
Speaker 2: His curve all was like thirteen percent of the time
Speaker 2: in that last major league start. I think he's throwing
Speaker 2: one or two of them in the miners in both starts.
Speaker 1: Well, I believe here. I've I've written down in my
Speaker 1: diary about the cutter.
Speaker 2: Oh everybody, it's the Ray's analytical team. Please talk.
Speaker 1: Yeah right, I once threw a baseball in nineteen ninety seven.
Speaker 1: It was very exhilarating, but I've decided it was very dangerous.
Speaker 1: So instead I'm just going to analyze the rest of
Speaker 1: them and figure it out. But he says here that
Speaker 1: the cutter might be a pitching to back off. He
Speaker 1: through at sixty four point two percent of the time,
Speaker 1: and perhaps and maybe maybe a fifty seven the time
Speaker 1: will be a little bit better situation. I think perhaps,
Speaker 1: So we'll continue to look into that and continue to
Speaker 1: study the analytics of all that. I'm like, I'm like
Speaker 1: carat top. I've just got props everywhere on this desk
Speaker 1: at all time.
Speaker 2: To you do. I'm always amazing. Where's the crown? Do
Speaker 2: you have the crown?
Speaker 1: Yeah? I've got the crown here because we don't have
Speaker 1: that sponsor anymore. So I never wear the crown, but
Speaker 1: I the king.
Speaker 2: Of keeping it real now within hands reach.
Speaker 1: Yeah, you got to have a couple of things here
Speaker 1: around just because you never know, you never know what's
Speaker 1: gonna happen. Hopefully we do know what happens with Tyder
Speaker 1: Glastow when things get better. Max Scherzer is not going
Speaker 1: to start today against the Nationals. Get out of town. Well,
Speaker 1: I mean, I'm shocked. I can't believe this. I mean,
Speaker 1: this is just so shocking. This is going in a
Speaker 1: bad direction fast for the New York Mets. I'm telling
Speaker 1: you right now. So Tyler McGill starting today instead, they
Speaker 1: had to start Peterson and those guys have not been good.
Speaker 1: It's been very unfortunate. I know Carrasco's working his way back,
Speaker 1: but that's not the answer. The Mets are kind of
Speaker 1: hanging on by a thread here. And I told you
Speaker 1: before the show something that I was looking on betting
Speaker 1: pros this morning, which is after the Max Freed entry.
Speaker 1: I was putting together the sports Grid TV stuff because
Speaker 1: I do the Sunday Baseball show there for two hours
Speaker 1: on Sunday mornings, and I was looking at some of
Speaker 1: the lines and look at some of the stuff, and
Speaker 1: it occurred to me, I was like, Wow, Max Free's
Speaker 1: gonna miss two months. So what does that mean here?
Speaker 1: When the Mets are terrible, there's no value on the
Speaker 1: Braves or like minus four hundred to win the division.
Speaker 1: I know the Phillies just lost a closer, but still
Speaker 1: they've got some depth there, these gut guys that can
Speaker 1: fill that role. The Phillies are ten to one to
Speaker 1: win that division. They're starting to look like a really
Speaker 1: interesting play potentially. What do you think of the Phillies
Speaker 1: maybe coming on here, especially with Bryce Harper back so early?
Speaker 2: How far how far back are they? What does the
Speaker 2: division record look like right now?
Speaker 1: Because I will to check on that right now, we're
Speaker 1: super sneaky play well, right now, the Phillies are an
Speaker 1: eighteen win team. They are seven games back, but they're
Speaker 1: only they're they're they're tied with the Mets. Basically they're
Speaker 1: in like a half game tie because that's one more game.
Speaker 1: But again, I can't I can't knock the Phillies for
Speaker 1: what their record is because they played six weeks without
Speaker 1: Bryce Harper. So now that Harper's back already, this kind
Speaker 1: of changes the calculus for me. The Phillies. Now our
Speaker 1: Noah's got a big start today, He's got a kicking.
Speaker 2: And that is what I was just waiting to say, Joe.
Speaker 2: It's like the air Aaron Nola and his curveball not
Speaker 2: being what it was and him not being himself. That's key.
Speaker 2: They took Matt Strom off put him in the bullpen,
Speaker 2: which makes a bullpen better. War is going to be
Speaker 2: coming back soon. What does he look like? So I
Speaker 2: think there's a couple of key components they need to
Speaker 2: get going. But they got that offense rolling. I mean,
Speaker 2: Bryce and Stott's been horrible as of recent. He was
Speaker 2: one of those guys that was a pick up. But
Speaker 2: offense is going. If Aaron Nola can get right, maybe
Speaker 2: this is another one of those teams us to get
Speaker 2: out there, be a little bit aggressive, get another guy
Speaker 2: in the rotation. They're totally going to take this and
Speaker 2: take that comment off the screen.
Speaker 1: By the way, Oh, I didn't even realized it was
Speaker 1: still there. It's not very nice when I was wearing
Speaker 1: my glasses. That's why that's what happened there anyway, And uh, look, analytics,
Speaker 1: by the way, for the p doesn't Crackerjack. Analytics have
Speaker 1: their place. But at a certain point, these are people
Speaker 1: and they're athletes, and we start to shake with their
Speaker 1: confidence of what they do. And here's the thing, So
Speaker 1: Todge Brady would be love Todge Bradley. Everything about Todge
Speaker 1: Bradley's great. He's our number one pitching prospect. Everything's been fantastic,
Speaker 1: and then we bring him up. But he's great in
Speaker 1: the major leagues, So why are we tinkering with it?
Speaker 1: That's the that's the problem I have. It's like, if
Speaker 1: you can find somebody that's struggling, that's where the analytics
Speaker 1: come in to help them do better. But when somebody's
Speaker 1: already great or doing really well, what are we trying
Speaker 1: to do except maybe change this guy's confidence. And now
Speaker 1: with guys in his head, there's still people. So the
Speaker 1: analytics do matter with one hundred percent, and the way
Speaker 1: you play, the analytics absolutely do make an impact. But
Speaker 1: at the end of the day, sometimes, especially with young players,
Speaker 1: it's a very dangerous game to play because when you
Speaker 1: knock the confidence down, the next thing you know, you've
Speaker 1: got a top prospect who's trying to do all these
Speaker 1: different things. Now, meanwhile, he got to be a top
Speaker 1: prospect because of the way he did things. And I'm
Speaker 1: not saying you can't improve, of course, you can same
Speaker 1: thing happens in the NFL. There's certain things. You know,
Speaker 1: when the quarterback comes in the NFL, you know, you
Speaker 1: want to try to get rid of the ball quicker.
Speaker 1: You want to work on the footwork, you want to
Speaker 1: look at understand the reads, defenses, the thing you want
Speaker 1: to try and analytically. There's things physically that you can
Speaker 1: do better. But Cheese man like, sometimes I think we
Speaker 1: we'd overdo it, That's all I'm saying. Sometimes I think I.
Speaker 2: Think it's a blend. I think there's a blend. I
Speaker 2: think it's tough when they want guys to throw a
Speaker 2: different type of pitch or or full on scrap to
Speaker 2: add that's not necessarily the case here. I think it is.
Speaker 2: It is tough with what they're doing, but I think
Speaker 2: they saw the road ahead and they saw the pitch
Speaker 2: mix needed to be adjusted. I mean, Bryce Miller just
Speaker 2: talked about this, like his numbers. Why he struggled in
Speaker 2: double A was because the team told him just throw strikes,
Speaker 2: just throw strikes and fastballs right now, and it wasn't
Speaker 2: allowing him to really kind of generate both of what
Speaker 2: that sweeper and actually what he labels as a curveball
Speaker 2: and and he was getting beat up and then but
Speaker 2: then the opposite of that is look at the success
Speaker 2: he's had at the Majors for what they did in
Speaker 2: double A of just having him really struggle. So it's
Speaker 2: a it's a fine line between all of it. Hopefully
Speaker 2: the Rays have a great track record. Hopefully it's what
Speaker 2: works out. But coming back to it, Taj doesn't look
Speaker 2: like he's coming up in the next two or three.
Speaker 1: Weeks, so he doesn't it's probably worthwhile getting a guy
Speaker 1: like THEE was the longest answer ever to Trent Fleming.
Speaker 1: By the way, he wants us Doe to an entire
Speaker 1: show as the Ray's analytics team and Jack Nicholson. So
Speaker 1: there you go, so that maybe next week we could
Speaker 1: do that. Tyler Molly won't be doing much of anything
Speaker 1: for this year and the rest of next year, probably
Speaker 1: most of it. Tyler Molly will have Tommy John surgery
Speaker 1: this week, so that's very sad. Uh. Here's a Joe's
Speaker 1: Tough Guys. We got to get a graphic for Joe's
Speaker 1: Tough Guys. I don't know what that is, but I
Speaker 1: will accept any really good photoshop of what will be
Speaker 1: appropriate for Joe's tough guys.
Speaker 2: Maybe how about the how about the girl scout addressed as.
Speaker 1: Well? Maybe it's like a picture of me is a
Speaker 1: boxer getting the crapp be eat at of me or
Speaker 1: something like that, or you know, it's like Rocky or
Speaker 1: something something like.
Speaker 2: You know, I like that image of Mike Tyson's punch
Speaker 2: out with the That's what I was thinking, and then
Speaker 2: the little guy at the bottom that would be you. Yeah,
Speaker 2: and then head on the that's me.
Speaker 1: So somebody sends that to me, we'll make it a
Speaker 1: graphic for next week's show. Ben Lively secured his first
Speaker 1: major league win since twenty seventeen. That's a long time ago, Welsh.
Speaker 1: Three scoreless things are relief, So good for Ben Lively.
Speaker 1: Congratulations you got a w three up and three down.
Speaker 1: Casey Schmidt, who apparently looks more like Mike Schmidt, went
Speaker 1: four for four with two homer and three RBI. He's
Speaker 1: been on fire. Drew Rasmussen was good against the Yankees.
Speaker 1: Seven innings for him, no runs, struck out seven. Josh
Speaker 1: Low in that same game, five robies with a dinger,
Speaker 1: three down, Aaron Judge over four to three. Ks Brett
Speaker 1: Honeywell two thirds of an inning, three earned runs, and
Speaker 1: CODEI Senga five innings pitched, five earned runs, eight hits.
Speaker 1: Welsh did have some.
Speaker 2: I hit my prop yesterday.
Speaker 1: I mean lance Lynn has like twenty two strikeouts in
Speaker 1: his last three games. We want to talk about how
Speaker 1: good lance Lynn is.
Speaker 2: I mean, yeah, saying got strikeouts, that's all it mattered.
Speaker 1: Let's pick some prizes. Go to prize picks dot com
Speaker 1: or download the app and use that promo code leading off.
Speaker 1: When you do, you get one hundred percent to posit
Speaker 1: a match up to one hundred dollars. Welsh, what do
Speaker 1: you want to do with the prize picking today?
Speaker 2: Oh right, well, we don't have a prize pick that's
Speaker 2: going to push up against all the chaos of games
Speaker 2: starting or anything like that. Even though, hilariously yesterday I
Speaker 2: was like, let's replay Spencer Steer with Fernando Tatis Junior's
Speaker 2: total base or score whatever he hits a homer, got
Speaker 2: my homer call there, but didn't matter because Mike Clevenger
Speaker 2: crapped all over the rest of it. So today we
Speaker 2: will go, man be a little bit easier. I'm gonna
Speaker 2: go on the opposite Aaron Judge can turn that back
Speaker 2: around against a total who for the Rais today Fantasy
Speaker 2: score eight and a half, Jordon Alvarez Fantasy score eight
Speaker 2: and a half. And I'm gonna do the hater thing.
Speaker 2: James Paxton is returning his strikeout numbers at five. I
Speaker 2: will take the under. I'm not feeling James Packton, similar
Speaker 2: to how I wasn't feeling Kyle right. How far will
Speaker 2: the pitches go, how successful? How many walks is he
Speaker 2: gonna have? He us a strikeout pitcher, so it's possible
Speaker 2: he could blow pass this, but first start back, I'm
Speaker 2: gonna go with the under on strikeouts for James Paxton's people.
Speaker 1: Can people on the live when they watch it back,
Speaker 1: can they see all the comments.
Speaker 2: Of people like yes, I have that selected? Yeah?
Speaker 1: Oh good, because even today some really good comments, really
Speaker 1: funny stuff in there. For me, it's Drew Smiley four
Speaker 1: and a half over on the pitcher strikeouts going against
Speaker 1: the Twinkies, Martin Perez against the oaklan A's nobody strikes
Speaker 1: out more than them. I know Martin Perez is exactly
Speaker 1: show heyl Tony that's okay. Ye four and a half
Speaker 1: is a tiny number you just gotta get to five, Okay,
Speaker 1: Mike Trout seven and a half hitter Fantasy score against Cleveland,
Speaker 1: and they're young pitching. I'm gonna go take that little
Speaker 1: number as well. When it comes to betting today, here's
Speaker 1: my parlay of the day, Eury Perez four and a half.
Speaker 1: I would bet that separately anyway. I'd bet all three
Speaker 1: of these separately anyway, just in case. Then you then
Speaker 1: you push, you make your money back. So if you
Speaker 1: put a unit on each of these things individually, and
Speaker 1: then a unit on them as a trio, you're gonna
Speaker 1: get five to one odds on it. So Ury Perez
Speaker 1: four and a half over, Drew Smiley four and a
Speaker 1: half k's over, Martin Perez four and a half k's over.
Speaker 1: Bet them individually, right, But if you go ahead and
Speaker 1: even throw one unit on them as a parlay, you're
Speaker 1: getting five to one. So there you go. So you're
Speaker 1: still gonna if you get two out of three, it's
Speaker 1: a push for a day and you're good. Mike Trout
Speaker 1: over on the half RBIs you're getting plus one seventy
Speaker 1: on that number. That's a huge number. Eury Perez. We
Speaker 1: talked about again the four and a half. You're getting
Speaker 1: minus one oh nine Corbyn burn six and a half strikeouts.
Speaker 1: I struggled with this one, but I'm gonna lean the other.
Speaker 2: You pick him every single start, you know.
Speaker 1: I'm waiting for it to turn around. And then Drew
Speaker 1: Smiley too. The other one too is we have an
Speaker 1: eight and a half today which is Benzer Strider against Toronto,
Speaker 1: and I desperately want to go the under, but I'm
Speaker 1: just leaving it alone. Just leaving it alone, Welsh, What
Speaker 1: are you looking for today when it comes to the
Speaker 1: betting market.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I wouldn't touch that either though. By the way,
Speaker 2: in your parlay, I like the Drew Smiley and I
Speaker 2: like Eury Perez. Those are two I don't love Martin Perez.
Speaker 2: Euri Priz is one of mine. It's minus one thirty
Speaker 2: one thing when talking about him earlier over his last
Speaker 2: two starts. This is obviously in the minors, but twenty
Speaker 2: strikeouts in his last two starts. So Euri pres is
Speaker 2: a big strikeout pitcher. He's got a great relationship with
Speaker 2: Sandy al Contra, who broke the news to him big
Speaker 2: change up, fastball, slider, red strikeout, a whole bunch This
Speaker 2: is a pretty easy number. It's juic stuff at like
Speaker 2: one thirty. But I'm playing it. I'm going to play
Speaker 2: it as a solo and would love to pair it,
Speaker 2: like you said, with stuff. My other two bets playing
Speaker 2: some of my first five team total runs. So this
Speaker 2: is teams to score this mini runs through the first
Speaker 2: five innings. My two favorites today Houston through the first
Speaker 2: five score two and a half. This is up against
Speaker 2: Michael Kopek all but two starts this year. He has
Speaker 2: given up far more than three runs in the first
Speaker 2: five and I'm gonna go with Saint Louis.
Speaker 1: Is that right?
Speaker 2: Saint Louis first five team total run two and a half.
Speaker 2: I have to go back through that, but those are
Speaker 2: my I'm trying to remember why you're right.
Speaker 1: So here's our parlay.
Speaker 2: Oh, James Paxson, That's why that's all. Yeah, Yes, I'm
Speaker 2: going up against James Paxson team total two and a half.
Speaker 2: That was my logic.
Speaker 1: Thank you in that game. Today's party of the Day
Speaker 1: from the collective leading off team. I took Drew Smiley
Speaker 1: in the four and a half case over minus one eighteen.
Speaker 1: Mike Mayer Mariners money line minus one twenty. Kelly Kirby,
Speaker 1: our friend the Wonky Penguin took the Braves minus one
Speaker 1: and a half at plus one oh five and the
Speaker 1: Welsh Braves on the money line minus one sixty first
Speaker 1: five again the first five. But so he put all
Speaker 1: those things together, you get plus oney twenty eight, so
Speaker 1: ten to one on that. If you play those four
Speaker 1: things together. Another thing you should play, which is really
Speaker 1: fun and super awesome, is so rare. Head over right
Speaker 1: now to Fantasy pros dot com slash collect. Sign up
Speaker 1: for free. I did this week. It's super fun. It's
Speaker 1: really cool. You get to make your lineup, you get
Speaker 1: to bid on your players, and again it's a combination
Speaker 1: of it's like baseball cards the digital versions and you're
Speaker 1: playing fantasy. You can enter it in contests and win
Speaker 1: other packs on other players. It's super cool. I know
Speaker 1: razors in there playing too. So if you haven't already,
Speaker 1: check it out this weekend, if you got some time.
Speaker 1: Fantasy pros dot com slash Collect MLB so rare. The
Speaker 1: next era is yours, not mine, not Welsh's, it's yours.
Speaker 1: Let's continue on with the DFS today. Remember yesterday when
Speaker 1: I told you best Nate Valdi lineup wins, well, hopefully
Speaker 1: you won. Garrett Cole eleven point three, K Spencer Strider
Speaker 1: eleven five. Love the Strider as much today as I
Speaker 1: do because of the price on the road. There's a
Speaker 1: lot of issues there. Sunny Grade at ten point eight
Speaker 1: I do like, and Drew Smiley at nine point eight two.
Speaker 1: Typically I stay away from the games where it's two
Speaker 1: pitchers going against each other because the four outcomes. But
Speaker 1: I think way you're looking under in that game stacks
Speaker 1: today Saint Louis as Welsh was touching on against Pax
Speaker 1: in Houston Philly, Texas. Who has been great value, mister
Speaker 1: Mid himself, Alex Bregman at two point eight. Miguel Vargus
Speaker 1: has really picked things up in the last month two
Speaker 1: point eight and No One Aaron Otto is just two
Speaker 1: point eight today, Welsh, if you could believe it, then
Speaker 1: it comes of course to the time we all love
Speaker 1: the home run board. Obviously we are getting to a
Speaker 1: point here where.
Speaker 2: You're getting close close, So I'm at nine for yesterday.
Speaker 1: Primetime is still at the top. Obviously, Razor starting to
Speaker 1: get closer and closer there, but still still very close here.
Speaker 1: We got a lot of people at thirteen. VHb Zerdo
Speaker 1: Blue Harvester all at the thirteen as well, got a
Speaker 1: bunch of people at twelve. Are you in double digits yet?
Speaker 1: Welsh's out?
Speaker 2: Well, I'm at nine, so I got my tatis he
Speaker 2: led off Homer. That was my ninth Homer call. So
Speaker 2: I'm looking for a big weekend to get into the
Speaker 2: double Digi's because I want to get on that I
Speaker 2: don't think I've ever been on that board since doing
Speaker 2: doing this since last year, but I've never been on
Speaker 2: that board at any time, so I'm ready to do
Speaker 2: it this time. So very soon. Aaron Judge, We're gonna
Speaker 2: go with Aaron Judge. I was tempted on a few
Speaker 2: other players, but Aaron Judge is what I'm settling on
Speaker 2: because there's also a weekend call. So going with Aaron
Speaker 2: Judge through the weekend he has not quite been right.
Speaker 2: Kind of wanted to go with Paul Welchmith today going
Speaker 2: against Packson, but I'm gonna take a weekend Judge run
Speaker 2: for myself and hopefully can pick up. And I'm trying
Speaker 2: to get to eleven. Eleven is like a magic number
Speaker 2: because I think I can rock it next week. Joe
Speaker 2: are you gonna get pat? What are you at?
Speaker 1: Four?
Speaker 2: Five?
Speaker 1: Five? I think I'm at five Jordan Alvarez for the weekend,
Speaker 1: there we go. That's where we're going here. By the way,
Speaker 1: looks like cousin Donnie's go to a baseball game. He
Speaker 1: needs a merch the game. We gotta get him a
Speaker 1: hat or something. It'll get to him before the game.
Speaker 1: But but look at that, cousin Donnie going to a
Speaker 1: baseball game.
Speaker 2: So that's gonna be funny.
Speaker 1: We'll see how he lasts there. It's been a really
Speaker 1: fun weekend of shows. And also, Happy Mother's Day out
Speaker 1: there to everybody, especially the bombs who watched the show,
Speaker 1: because we know we have a lot of female listeners
Speaker 1: and watchers the pro so happy Mother's Day to all
Speaker 1: of you. Do something nice for your mom, or do
Speaker 1: something nice for the other ladies in the life that
Speaker 1: you know our moms as well, So enjoy the mother's day,
Speaker 1: get some flowers, get some fresh air, and enjoy the
Speaker 1: baseball as well. That'll do it for us, But the
Speaker 1: story of the game goes on for the Welsh. I'm
Speaker 1: Joey Pee. We'll see you next time. Kids enjoy the weekend.
Speaker 1: Bye Bye,