1 00:00:00,800 --> 00:00:04,040 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, alongside 2 00:00:04,040 --> 00:00:06,920 Speaker 1: my co host Matt Miller. Every business day we bring 3 00:00:06,960 --> 00:00:11,520 Speaker 1: you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along 4 00:00:11,560 --> 00:00:15,560 Speaker 1: with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets podcast 5 00:00:15,560 --> 00:00:18,479 Speaker 1: called Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and 6 00:00:18,480 --> 00:00:22,160 Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. Now, let's bring in 7 00:00:22,239 --> 00:00:25,640 Speaker 1: Every Sheffield, Managing Director and senior portfolio manager of long 8 00:00:25,640 --> 00:00:31,200 Speaker 1: short equity hedge fund Strategy at Rockefeller Asset Management. Avery's 9 00:00:31,240 --> 00:00:33,720 Speaker 1: great to have you back on the program again. I 10 00:00:33,800 --> 00:00:35,680 Speaker 1: just want to hit you first with the PPI data. 11 00:00:35,680 --> 00:00:38,479 Speaker 1: I'm sure you've seen, but a huge jump UM in 12 00:00:38,560 --> 00:00:41,959 Speaker 1: final demand year of Europe nine point six percent. Does 13 00:00:42,000 --> 00:00:45,120 Speaker 1: inflation concern you or do you think the Fed's gotta 14 00:00:45,120 --> 00:00:49,520 Speaker 1: handle on it? Yes? So I don't know. I mean 15 00:00:50,120 --> 00:00:54,200 Speaker 1: everything I say suggests that there's and we're nowhere near 16 00:00:54,360 --> 00:00:58,240 Speaker 1: the end of inflation UM, both from the PPI prices 17 00:00:58,320 --> 00:01:01,400 Speaker 1: and from the ability of any companies to pass on 18 00:01:01,480 --> 00:01:06,080 Speaker 1: inflation UM. It's really been significantly improved through UM through 19 00:01:06,120 --> 00:01:10,000 Speaker 1: their own analytical tools UM and and and and buying discipline. 20 00:01:10,120 --> 00:01:12,679 Speaker 1: So yes, that the pp. I think it's just one 21 00:01:12,720 --> 00:01:16,119 Speaker 1: more indicator that inflation is likely to be around longer 22 00:01:16,160 --> 00:01:19,320 Speaker 1: than anticipated. And you know, I almost I feel like, 23 00:01:19,400 --> 00:01:21,600 Speaker 1: no matter what the sent does, we're likely to see 24 00:01:21,640 --> 00:01:25,600 Speaker 1: this as a as a new norm. So if maybe 25 00:01:25,600 --> 00:01:28,560 Speaker 1: a little bit of a new norm here, UM, higher inflation, 26 00:01:28,600 --> 00:01:30,480 Speaker 1: maybe not obviously where we are here at six seven, 27 00:01:30,920 --> 00:01:33,400 Speaker 1: but certainly higher than where we were two for such 28 00:01:33,400 --> 00:01:36,880 Speaker 1: a long period of time. How's the consumer faring with that? 29 00:01:36,959 --> 00:01:39,039 Speaker 1: It seems like some of the retail numbers that we've 30 00:01:39,080 --> 00:01:41,160 Speaker 1: seen out of the retailers in the earnings third quarter, 31 00:01:41,640 --> 00:01:44,479 Speaker 1: we're pretty darn solid. There's some pretty good guidance for 32 00:01:44,560 --> 00:01:47,080 Speaker 1: the holidays. What's your take of the consumer and the 33 00:01:47,120 --> 00:01:52,880 Speaker 1: consumer space? Yes, so, UM, retailers have really been succeeding 34 00:01:52,920 --> 00:01:56,520 Speaker 1: for the most part in passing on this inflation UM. 35 00:01:56,760 --> 00:01:58,800 Speaker 1: And so I mean that's one of the reasons that 36 00:01:58,920 --> 00:02:02,520 Speaker 1: that I feel positive, uh, you know, constructive about UM. 37 00:02:02,560 --> 00:02:05,360 Speaker 1: The fact inflation is going to continue. UM. You know, 38 00:02:05,400 --> 00:02:08,880 Speaker 1: you're certainly seeing some pressure in the lower income consumer 39 00:02:09,200 --> 00:02:13,079 Speaker 1: and next year as they you know, last stimulus benefits. UM. 40 00:02:13,280 --> 00:02:14,959 Speaker 1: You know, I think people are gonna be very selective 41 00:02:15,000 --> 00:02:18,240 Speaker 1: about about where they're spending. But from a from a 42 00:02:18,440 --> 00:02:20,880 Speaker 1: from a kind of a company, from a stock perspective, 43 00:02:21,160 --> 00:02:24,560 Speaker 1: those companies that have been able to pass on higher pricing, 44 00:02:24,880 --> 00:02:28,160 Speaker 1: I think are our places to look for investments next 45 00:02:28,280 --> 00:02:31,079 Speaker 1: year UM, because those companies that have been able to 46 00:02:31,080 --> 00:02:35,160 Speaker 1: pass on higher pricing are those more likely to next year. UM. 47 00:02:35,200 --> 00:02:38,000 Speaker 1: It means that consumers like their products, there's real demand 48 00:02:38,040 --> 00:02:42,079 Speaker 1: for them. UM. They have underappreciated some underappreciated pricing power. 49 00:02:42,919 --> 00:02:44,760 Speaker 1: How do you think about oh, Macron, Paul and I've 50 00:02:44,800 --> 00:02:47,400 Speaker 1: been talking about the fact that what you see happen 51 00:02:47,760 --> 00:02:51,120 Speaker 1: in Europe, UM, the US typically follows, and we're hitting 52 00:02:51,120 --> 00:02:53,000 Speaker 1: a big wave or a big wave is hitting us 53 00:02:53,000 --> 00:02:55,600 Speaker 1: here in Europe. Now does that happen to the US later? 54 00:02:57,720 --> 00:03:01,240 Speaker 1: I actually don't see it because as we see so 55 00:03:01,320 --> 00:03:04,600 Speaker 1: much data coming in that that this variant is very mild, 56 00:03:04,760 --> 00:03:07,720 Speaker 1: and so I think if that continues, UM, you know, 57 00:03:07,800 --> 00:03:11,560 Speaker 1: Europe is going to be kind of a a place 58 00:03:11,600 --> 00:03:14,200 Speaker 1: to see this play out first before the US has 59 00:03:14,240 --> 00:03:17,160 Speaker 1: to act. I mean, certainly, if if if only com 60 00:03:17,720 --> 00:03:20,440 Speaker 1: becomes you know, much more of an issue in terms 61 00:03:20,480 --> 00:03:24,280 Speaker 1: of UM hospitalizations in death, you might see some actions here. 62 00:03:24,560 --> 00:03:26,680 Speaker 1: But if we continue to see it quite benign. I 63 00:03:26,720 --> 00:03:29,280 Speaker 1: was just reading something this morning about about some places 64 00:03:29,480 --> 00:03:32,120 Speaker 1: starting to reverse UM, even some of the travel band. 65 00:03:32,960 --> 00:03:34,679 Speaker 1: I think, you know, the U S could get through 66 00:03:34,720 --> 00:03:38,240 Speaker 1: this with with fewer freedoms like we're seeing. Definitely math 67 00:03:38,360 --> 00:03:42,040 Speaker 1: mandates UM, but not necessarily much of an economic impact 68 00:03:42,800 --> 00:03:45,880 Speaker 1: every what's the uh, the status of the supply chain 69 00:03:45,920 --> 00:03:47,320 Speaker 1: issues as you take a look at some of the 70 00:03:47,320 --> 00:03:49,840 Speaker 1: consumer companies out there. I mean, I'm looking at a 71 00:03:49,840 --> 00:03:52,480 Speaker 1: function here on a Bloomberg terminal, UH that lets me 72 00:03:52,680 --> 00:03:54,600 Speaker 1: it's a mapping function. Lets me see a bunch of 73 00:03:54,640 --> 00:03:58,400 Speaker 1: ships still docked off the ports of Los Angeles, still 74 00:03:58,480 --> 00:04:01,000 Speaker 1: docked off the ports of Savannah and New York and 75 00:04:01,040 --> 00:04:04,800 Speaker 1: so on. Is this something that we can expect to 76 00:04:04,880 --> 00:04:07,280 Speaker 1: resolve over some period of time or is this again 77 00:04:07,720 --> 00:04:11,120 Speaker 1: a little bit of a new normal here. Yes. And 78 00:04:11,200 --> 00:04:16,160 Speaker 1: the companies we're speaking with UM, they don't anticipate this resolving, 79 00:04:16,480 --> 00:04:19,000 Speaker 1: most of them until at least the second half of 80 00:04:19,120 --> 00:04:23,360 Speaker 1: next year UM. So they're planning for it. So they're 81 00:04:23,400 --> 00:04:27,280 Speaker 1: they're ordering earlier, UM, They're they're they're being much more 82 00:04:27,360 --> 00:04:31,400 Speaker 1: thoughtful about where they're sourcing from UM, and they're pricing 83 00:04:31,520 --> 00:04:35,200 Speaker 1: for it, So I think that this is likely to continue. 84 00:04:35,480 --> 00:04:37,800 Speaker 1: UM at some point, right, it should fully resolve. I mean, 85 00:04:37,800 --> 00:04:40,200 Speaker 1: just from a containership perspective, there are a lot of 86 00:04:40,200 --> 00:04:43,920 Speaker 1: new orders on hand going out a couple of years 87 00:04:43,920 --> 00:04:45,640 Speaker 1: from now, so at some point there should be a 88 00:04:45,640 --> 00:04:48,880 Speaker 1: lot more simple highest containers UM. But of course it 89 00:04:48,920 --> 00:04:50,560 Speaker 1: has to do the logistics at the ports and and 90 00:04:50,640 --> 00:04:53,120 Speaker 1: COVID is related to that. UM. You'd expect COVID to 91 00:04:53,320 --> 00:04:56,279 Speaker 1: you know, to to resolve UM at some point in 92 00:04:56,279 --> 00:04:58,479 Speaker 1: in in the next you know, six to twelve months. 93 00:04:58,480 --> 00:05:00,520 Speaker 1: So I think we should start to see the baby. 94 00:05:00,600 --> 00:05:02,839 Speaker 1: Some companies have actually just UM in the past couple 95 00:05:02,839 --> 00:05:05,040 Speaker 1: of weeks commented that they're seeing things loosen up a 96 00:05:05,080 --> 00:05:07,840 Speaker 1: little bit for them. But it's an overall dynamic. UM. 97 00:05:08,320 --> 00:05:11,080 Speaker 1: Everyone's planning for it and uh, and it looks like it, 98 00:05:11,200 --> 00:05:13,000 Speaker 1: you know, it might not result for another six or 99 00:05:13,000 --> 00:05:17,600 Speaker 1: twelve months. How do you benchmark alongshore equity hedge fund strategy? 100 00:05:17,640 --> 00:05:21,080 Speaker 1: I mean, can you underperform big gains and at least 101 00:05:21,080 --> 00:05:25,240 Speaker 1: as long as you outperform years where their losses look. 102 00:05:25,520 --> 00:05:28,320 Speaker 1: I mean, I think as an as an investor in 103 00:05:28,400 --> 00:05:31,520 Speaker 1: any entency is a fund of the stock UM, I 104 00:05:31,520 --> 00:05:35,320 Speaker 1: wouldn't be investing in funds that UM that that aren't 105 00:05:35,360 --> 00:05:38,800 Speaker 1: generating you know, real real returns. I know long short 106 00:05:38,839 --> 00:05:41,960 Speaker 1: equity as a category is really underperformed. But in that 107 00:05:42,080 --> 00:05:46,160 Speaker 1: category there are many funds UM that have actually done 108 00:05:46,360 --> 00:05:49,960 Speaker 1: very well and have preserved capital um during times by 109 00:05:50,000 --> 00:05:52,680 Speaker 1: the COVID crisis, and actually done quite well in markets 110 00:05:52,720 --> 00:05:55,320 Speaker 1: like we've had, and really protect for the next downturn. 111 00:05:55,360 --> 00:05:57,520 Speaker 1: I mean, you know, from an individual, the market as 112 00:05:57,520 --> 00:06:01,520 Speaker 1: a whole is gonna marched higher. You're seeing tremendous bifurcation 113 00:06:01,920 --> 00:06:05,359 Speaker 1: underneath the surface, and a lot of companies UM stocks 114 00:06:05,440 --> 00:06:08,560 Speaker 1: down meaningfully in this in this uh, you know, even 115 00:06:08,560 --> 00:06:10,960 Speaker 1: in the past six months. And should you see something 116 00:06:10,960 --> 00:06:13,680 Speaker 1: spell whether's you know, start to turn a bit um, 117 00:06:13,680 --> 00:06:16,880 Speaker 1: the induscries themselves might might struggle. So look, I don't 118 00:06:16,920 --> 00:06:19,280 Speaker 1: know what's going to happen here. But the benefit of 119 00:06:19,400 --> 00:06:21,800 Speaker 1: you know, of a long short strategy that considers all 120 00:06:21,800 --> 00:06:24,080 Speaker 1: these things and has has proven to do well through 121 00:06:24,240 --> 00:06:27,960 Speaker 1: the past um uh is that you know, even if 122 00:06:28,360 --> 00:06:30,600 Speaker 1: it turned south, you can do well. But you know, 123 00:06:30,839 --> 00:06:34,640 Speaker 1: I would look at every individual strategy m independently. All right, 124 00:06:35,240 --> 00:06:37,680 Speaker 1: every thanks so much for joining us every Sheffield, there's 125 00:06:37,680 --> 00:06:44,720 Speaker 1: an m D at Rockefeller Asset Management. Let's bring in 126 00:06:44,760 --> 00:06:48,040 Speaker 1: Shaan Karney. Now he is the head of MUNI strategy 127 00:06:48,320 --> 00:06:53,520 Speaker 1: over at black Rock, and that means Paul is very excited. Sean, 128 00:06:54,400 --> 00:06:57,480 Speaker 1: talk to me about how much does it matter if 129 00:06:57,480 --> 00:07:01,160 Speaker 1: we get this build back better bill past two munis? 130 00:07:01,560 --> 00:07:04,840 Speaker 1: Is it less important, um than than the infrastructure bill? 131 00:07:05,000 --> 00:07:09,560 Speaker 1: Was It matters, um? But but I would say it's 132 00:07:09,600 --> 00:07:14,240 Speaker 1: not as important, um. You know. Some of the keys 133 00:07:14,320 --> 00:07:19,080 Speaker 1: that the MUNI market has looked at is investors are 134 00:07:19,120 --> 00:07:22,920 Speaker 1: anticipating higher taxes as a result of the build back 135 00:07:23,040 --> 00:07:25,960 Speaker 1: that are plan. If we just look at a simple 136 00:07:26,000 --> 00:07:29,160 Speaker 1: calculation of a market implied tax benefit, it shows, you know, 137 00:07:29,200 --> 00:07:32,360 Speaker 1: the market pricing for a fifty top marginal tax rate, 138 00:07:32,400 --> 00:07:35,440 Speaker 1: which as you know, is significantly higher than this administration 139 00:07:36,360 --> 00:07:39,360 Speaker 1: has been has been talking. But I think that the 140 00:07:39,360 --> 00:07:42,800 Speaker 1: bigger impact comes from the supply side of the equation, 141 00:07:43,240 --> 00:07:46,320 Speaker 1: where things like Advanced were Funding bonds and Build America 142 00:07:46,360 --> 00:07:49,840 Speaker 1: bonds were omitted from the from the final draft, which 143 00:07:49,920 --> 00:07:52,680 Speaker 1: ultimately would have been a catalyst for for greater supply 144 00:07:52,760 --> 00:07:55,800 Speaker 1: in the market. So it does matter, h and markets 145 00:07:55,800 --> 00:07:59,960 Speaker 1: are paying attention. So Sean in THEMMUNI market um again 146 00:08:00,000 --> 00:08:01,680 Speaker 1: and I'm a big fan of the mini market, and 147 00:08:01,720 --> 00:08:04,680 Speaker 1: the UNI bond returns have been very strong compared with 148 00:08:04,720 --> 00:08:07,760 Speaker 1: other fixed income markets this year. What's behind that and 149 00:08:08,120 --> 00:08:12,600 Speaker 1: what's the outlook for That's a good question. So they 150 00:08:12,600 --> 00:08:15,040 Speaker 1: have been and a lot of people concentrate on the 151 00:08:15,080 --> 00:08:17,640 Speaker 1: gross returns. I think it's also important to look at 152 00:08:17,640 --> 00:08:21,120 Speaker 1: excess returns. So you're to date, the investment grade UNI 153 00:08:21,200 --> 00:08:23,880 Speaker 1: market is up about one and a half percent, but 154 00:08:24,040 --> 00:08:27,880 Speaker 1: in excess returns i e. When we duration match communities 155 00:08:27,880 --> 00:08:31,720 Speaker 1: to treasuries, unis are up three basis points, and excess 156 00:08:31,720 --> 00:08:34,040 Speaker 1: returns when you compare that to a U S AGG 157 00:08:34,160 --> 00:08:36,520 Speaker 1: or corporate i G. That's down about one and a 158 00:08:36,559 --> 00:08:39,360 Speaker 1: half percent. I think there are several factors that have 159 00:08:39,400 --> 00:08:43,600 Speaker 1: been driving this year's positive performance, and while I want 160 00:08:43,640 --> 00:08:45,680 Speaker 1: to say it can continue into twenty two, there's a 161 00:08:45,679 --> 00:08:47,440 Speaker 1: couple of things I think we need to pay attention to. 162 00:08:47,880 --> 00:08:51,120 Speaker 1: Like I mentioned, higher taxes on the individual side would help. 163 00:08:51,520 --> 00:08:54,040 Speaker 1: On the corporate side, it's still unclear the role that 164 00:08:54,120 --> 00:08:57,520 Speaker 1: banks and insurance companies will play. From the demand side. 165 00:08:58,440 --> 00:09:02,839 Speaker 1: This year's outperformance has relative value measures I e. MUNI 166 00:09:02,920 --> 00:09:06,640 Speaker 1: treasury ratios screening a bit rich so sub fifty in 167 00:09:06,679 --> 00:09:09,079 Speaker 1: the first five years of the curve and probably ten 168 00:09:09,160 --> 00:09:12,040 Speaker 1: ratio is rich out longer on the curve. So as 169 00:09:12,080 --> 00:09:16,040 Speaker 1: long as supplied demand dynamics remains skewed, positive munies will 170 00:09:16,040 --> 00:09:19,320 Speaker 1: hold in well. However, if that ratio goes a little sideways, 171 00:09:19,360 --> 00:09:21,199 Speaker 1: we could see munities come under a bit of pressure. 172 00:09:21,400 --> 00:09:23,640 Speaker 1: I think about the net positive months of March and 173 00:09:23,679 --> 00:09:26,760 Speaker 1: April and September and October, which have a little bit 174 00:09:26,840 --> 00:09:30,240 Speaker 1: less uh, you know, technical strength than others. And I'd 175 00:09:30,240 --> 00:09:32,240 Speaker 1: say the other thing to pay attention to is MUNI 176 00:09:32,559 --> 00:09:37,960 Speaker 1: fundamentals support continued strong performance, as does the notion interest 177 00:09:38,080 --> 00:09:42,360 Speaker 1: rates will rise in as munies tend to outperform in 178 00:09:42,400 --> 00:09:47,719 Speaker 1: a rising rate environment given their structure. Where are there places, 179 00:09:47,880 --> 00:09:51,480 Speaker 1: um that are most advantageous to buy MUNI is still 180 00:09:51,520 --> 00:09:57,080 Speaker 1: if you're looking for a tax avoidance, there are you know, 181 00:09:57,200 --> 00:10:00,840 Speaker 1: our the way that we've kind of been positioning portfolios, 182 00:10:00,880 --> 00:10:03,320 Speaker 1: and you know, positioning going into twenty two, I'd say 183 00:10:03,320 --> 00:10:07,400 Speaker 1: we're going into the year slightly long duration stand but 184 00:10:07,520 --> 00:10:11,840 Speaker 1: importantly maintaining a barbell yield curve strategy. So we prefer 185 00:10:11,920 --> 00:10:15,080 Speaker 1: lower rated investment grade bonds for instance, particularly in the 186 00:10:15,120 --> 00:10:17,520 Speaker 1: front end of the yield curve, as well as select 187 00:10:17,600 --> 00:10:21,320 Speaker 1: high yield credits. And we maintain a favorable view on 188 00:10:21,520 --> 00:10:26,880 Speaker 1: tax backed transportation, healthcare, and the education sectors. And the 189 00:10:26,960 --> 00:10:31,440 Speaker 1: economic recovery is positioned to continue with strong growth in 190 00:10:31,480 --> 00:10:34,080 Speaker 1: the tighter labor market in the coming year, you know, 191 00:10:34,160 --> 00:10:37,000 Speaker 1: hence our our preference for for those you know, parts 192 00:10:37,080 --> 00:10:39,440 Speaker 1: of the market on the yield curve and across the 193 00:10:39,440 --> 00:10:43,320 Speaker 1: credit spectrum. Sean, give us a sense just kind of 194 00:10:43,320 --> 00:10:46,080 Speaker 1: how fun flows have been into the MUNI space here. 195 00:10:46,120 --> 00:10:49,520 Speaker 1: I wouldn't guessing listen, talk about higher taxation out there, 196 00:10:50,000 --> 00:10:53,760 Speaker 1: people are more inngest in the muni's flows have been phenomenal. 197 00:10:53,840 --> 00:10:56,079 Speaker 1: Year to day, we've seen about eighty three billion come 198 00:10:56,120 --> 00:10:59,040 Speaker 1: into the market. We have three prints left, but we're 199 00:10:59,040 --> 00:11:01,000 Speaker 1: probably going to come in a shy of the record 200 00:11:01,000 --> 00:11:03,839 Speaker 1: of the year of two thousand nineteen that printed about 201 00:11:03,920 --> 00:11:07,679 Speaker 1: ninety four billion UM. It's been sensational. There's many different 202 00:11:07,679 --> 00:11:09,120 Speaker 1: ways that we can look at it. And we can 203 00:11:09,240 --> 00:11:13,080 Speaker 1: use MUB the largest MUNI e t f UH ticker 204 00:11:13,240 --> 00:11:16,160 Speaker 1: as as a way of looking at UM whether trades 205 00:11:16,200 --> 00:11:18,319 Speaker 1: that a discount or premium do as n a V. 206 00:11:18,559 --> 00:11:20,920 Speaker 1: That's ultimately kind of what fast Money will tell you 207 00:11:20,960 --> 00:11:24,360 Speaker 1: about the future flows, and it's been very positive. It 208 00:11:24,400 --> 00:11:27,600 Speaker 1: remains very positive. We've been seeing you know, good inflows 209 00:11:27,679 --> 00:11:30,400 Speaker 1: from from all different types of accounts, so you know, 210 00:11:30,520 --> 00:11:33,439 Speaker 1: one would believe that as performance continues, you know, we'll 211 00:11:33,440 --> 00:11:35,920 Speaker 1: see fund flows continue as well as we flip the 212 00:11:35,960 --> 00:11:39,199 Speaker 1: calendar into into two. All Right, Seohn, thanks so much 213 00:11:39,200 --> 00:11:41,800 Speaker 1: for your time. We really appreciate you sharing your thoughts 214 00:11:41,800 --> 00:11:45,040 Speaker 1: here on the bond marker. Shaun Carney, head of Municipal 215 00:11:45,080 --> 00:11:51,880 Speaker 1: Strategy at black Rock. I want to bring Shawn McCarthy. 216 00:11:51,920 --> 00:11:55,320 Speaker 1: He's a CEO and co founder of Build America Mutual 217 00:11:55,360 --> 00:11:58,679 Speaker 1: talk about the municipal bond marketing we heard earlier today. 218 00:11:58,720 --> 00:12:01,880 Speaker 1: We're chatting Shawn and how the good performance coming out 219 00:12:01,880 --> 00:12:04,120 Speaker 1: of the municipal bond market. I want to start with 220 00:12:04,679 --> 00:12:07,800 Speaker 1: who's buying these things? Give us a sense of who 221 00:12:07,800 --> 00:12:11,400 Speaker 1: are the buyers in municipal bond market, retail versus institutional. 222 00:12:11,920 --> 00:12:16,280 Speaker 1: What's a typical buyer like out there? Well, thanks Upo 223 00:12:16,440 --> 00:12:19,559 Speaker 1: met for having me join you today. UM, and so 224 00:12:19,679 --> 00:12:24,640 Speaker 1: the typical UH investor in the municipal bonds would be 225 00:12:24,760 --> 00:12:27,760 Speaker 1: somebody who plays that has in the high income tax bracket. 226 00:12:28,040 --> 00:12:29,920 Speaker 1: Do you think about the fact that the vast majority 227 00:12:29,920 --> 00:12:35,480 Speaker 1: of municipal bonds are tax exempt, that benefit really runs 228 00:12:35,520 --> 00:12:38,720 Speaker 1: to the individual who is purchasing those bonds, And so 229 00:12:39,160 --> 00:12:42,959 Speaker 1: you really think about municipal bonds generally as retail or 230 00:12:43,679 --> 00:12:48,120 Speaker 1: um investments in proxies of retail meaning funds institutional funds 231 00:12:48,120 --> 00:12:51,960 Speaker 1: that you can buy. So, um, do you have an 232 00:12:51,960 --> 00:12:55,080 Speaker 1: eye on the best places to invest right now? I 233 00:12:55,080 --> 00:12:58,120 Speaker 1: mean where if I want to avoid taxes and also 234 00:12:58,240 --> 00:13:00,559 Speaker 1: generate some returns, where do I go in this kind 235 00:13:00,559 --> 00:13:04,319 Speaker 1: of market? Well, so in the municipal bond market, I'd 236 00:13:04,360 --> 00:13:06,360 Speaker 1: say there's a couple of things that are happening. This 237 00:13:06,440 --> 00:13:09,600 Speaker 1: year will end up being about a four hundred and 238 00:13:09,640 --> 00:13:12,880 Speaker 1: sixty billion dollar market, perhaps a little bit more than that, 239 00:13:13,080 --> 00:13:15,640 Speaker 1: which is which is a record. We would anticipate that 240 00:13:15,720 --> 00:13:18,400 Speaker 1: next year would be the same. Now, when you look 241 00:13:18,440 --> 00:13:20,840 Speaker 1: at what those opportunities are going to be, UM, I 242 00:13:20,840 --> 00:13:24,360 Speaker 1: think they're going to center around, uh, some of the 243 00:13:24,400 --> 00:13:27,199 Speaker 1: things that have happened in Washington. So when the infrastructure 244 00:13:27,240 --> 00:13:30,160 Speaker 1: bill was passed, that's good and that it sort of 245 00:13:30,880 --> 00:13:35,040 Speaker 1: provides a resource for state and local governments to um 246 00:13:35,320 --> 00:13:38,439 Speaker 1: uh you know, finance and repair infrastructure that that they 247 00:13:38,440 --> 00:13:41,559 Speaker 1: have going forward. UM. One of the things that's interesting 248 00:13:41,559 --> 00:13:46,440 Speaker 1: about that that's Federal Infrastructure Bill is that really still 249 00:13:46,480 --> 00:13:50,480 Speaker 1: at the at the fundamental funding level for infrastructure. It's 250 00:13:50,559 --> 00:13:52,719 Speaker 1: done at the state and local government level. So that's 251 00:13:52,720 --> 00:13:57,840 Speaker 1: about of bonds that are issued for infrastructure are done 252 00:13:57,840 --> 00:14:00,720 Speaker 1: at state and local governments. So what we see happening 253 00:14:00,720 --> 00:14:02,360 Speaker 1: next year, it's going to be a fact that there'll 254 00:14:02,400 --> 00:14:05,920 Speaker 1: be funds that will be matched by the federal government 255 00:14:06,480 --> 00:14:11,000 Speaker 1: UH for statan local governments as they build out um 256 00:14:11,160 --> 00:14:14,400 Speaker 1: their infrastructure and repair the infrastructure that you know, this 257 00:14:14,760 --> 00:14:16,840 Speaker 1: is long overdue. So this we think is a pretty 258 00:14:16,840 --> 00:14:19,720 Speaker 1: exciting area. And I think that if investors are looking 259 00:14:19,760 --> 00:14:22,600 Speaker 1: to participate in that market, and that's going to be 260 00:14:22,880 --> 00:14:24,680 Speaker 1: there's gonna be a lot of opportunity next year to 261 00:14:24,680 --> 00:14:27,880 Speaker 1: do that. UM. Sean, I want to ask you about 262 00:14:28,080 --> 00:14:31,280 Speaker 1: just the whole E s G Green bond phenomena. We 263 00:14:31,280 --> 00:14:34,800 Speaker 1: see corporations looking for the designation of a of their 264 00:14:34,840 --> 00:14:37,840 Speaker 1: one of their issuance being a green bond or E 265 00:14:37,960 --> 00:14:40,040 Speaker 1: s G friendly bond. Is that a is that a 266 00:14:40,160 --> 00:14:43,680 Speaker 1: thing in the municipal bondmark as well. You know, it's 267 00:14:44,040 --> 00:14:47,520 Speaker 1: it's actually a growing thing. So we've at the Build 268 00:14:47,520 --> 00:14:52,280 Speaker 1: American Mutual UM, we've been designating green star bonds or 269 00:14:52,600 --> 00:14:57,280 Speaker 1: green bonds UM as part of our underwriting process UM, 270 00:14:57,440 --> 00:15:00,160 Speaker 1: you know, for four or five years now. And so 271 00:15:00,280 --> 00:15:03,560 Speaker 1: if you think about that market, this past year through 272 00:15:03,600 --> 00:15:07,200 Speaker 1: the third quarter, over twelve billion dollars of municipal green 273 00:15:07,240 --> 00:15:11,280 Speaker 1: bonds were issued in the United States UM. UH. Part 274 00:15:11,280 --> 00:15:14,000 Speaker 1: of what we do is as a service is to 275 00:15:14,040 --> 00:15:17,720 Speaker 1: make that designation. So we've actually designated one and a 276 00:15:17,760 --> 00:15:20,800 Speaker 1: half billion dollars with the transactions through the third quarter 277 00:15:21,440 --> 00:15:26,840 Speaker 1: UM as green. And that's UH an important factor because 278 00:15:26,840 --> 00:15:29,960 Speaker 1: I think there is an investor demand for not only 279 00:15:30,000 --> 00:15:33,640 Speaker 1: making smart investments, but doing well doing good for the 280 00:15:33,680 --> 00:15:36,600 Speaker 1: community at the same time. So green bonds really sort 281 00:15:36,600 --> 00:15:39,800 Speaker 1: of if you think about it, they're there. The nature 282 00:15:39,800 --> 00:15:43,920 Speaker 1: of them is sort of to finance clean water, renewable energy, 283 00:15:44,320 --> 00:15:49,560 Speaker 1: energy efficiency. And in Europe it's it's something that has 284 00:15:49,640 --> 00:15:53,320 Speaker 1: been really a part of their market for quite a while, 285 00:15:53,360 --> 00:15:56,760 Speaker 1: but it's it's definitely a growing area in terms of 286 00:15:56,960 --> 00:16:00,360 Speaker 1: UM the US municipal market. Talk to the about what 287 00:16:00,400 --> 00:16:02,120 Speaker 1: you do at BAM. I mean you have a long 288 00:16:02,240 --> 00:16:06,600 Speaker 1: history on Wall Street at uh EF Hutton and Paining Weber. 289 00:16:06,880 --> 00:16:12,200 Speaker 1: Um you were chief operating officer to shared Guarantee until 290 00:16:12,240 --> 00:16:15,760 Speaker 1: you started BAM. In what what's the main crux of 291 00:16:15,800 --> 00:16:19,640 Speaker 1: your business? So um, UH build a back and mutual. 292 00:16:19,760 --> 00:16:24,080 Speaker 1: BAM is a double A rated UH financial guarantee company. Basically, 293 00:16:24,120 --> 00:16:27,640 Speaker 1: what we do is we put our guarantee arm initial bonds. 294 00:16:28,040 --> 00:16:30,200 Speaker 1: That makes them double A in their own right. It's 295 00:16:30,200 --> 00:16:33,240 Speaker 1: a little like you co signing a student loan for 296 00:16:33,320 --> 00:16:35,560 Speaker 1: your children. UH. You hope they get a job and 297 00:16:35,600 --> 00:16:38,280 Speaker 1: you hope they tell, but UM, if they don't, where 298 00:16:38,320 --> 00:16:40,600 Speaker 1: they are standing by to make timely payment of principle 299 00:16:40,640 --> 00:16:43,000 Speaker 1: and interest when due. So why do people use us? 300 00:16:43,680 --> 00:16:48,600 Speaker 1: Issuers use us because we are UH going to lower 301 00:16:48,720 --> 00:16:51,480 Speaker 1: their cost of funding and that that's pure and simple. 302 00:16:51,480 --> 00:16:54,120 Speaker 1: So we're double A. We put our guarantee on that. 303 00:16:54,160 --> 00:16:57,320 Speaker 1: It creates creator liquidity in the paper we provide on 304 00:16:57,360 --> 00:17:00,000 Speaker 1: our website for free credit profiles, which is a summer 305 00:17:00,240 --> 00:17:03,880 Speaker 1: every transaction that we underwrite, we looked at that every year, UH, 306 00:17:03,880 --> 00:17:08,520 Speaker 1: and that creates value protection for the investor. It also 307 00:17:08,560 --> 00:17:12,720 Speaker 1: creates you know, sort of unparalleled transparency and sort of 308 00:17:12,880 --> 00:17:16,040 Speaker 1: unique to BAM um UH in the industry is that 309 00:17:16,119 --> 00:17:19,560 Speaker 1: we are a mutual insurance company, which means that our 310 00:17:19,640 --> 00:17:23,560 Speaker 1: stakeholders are the state local governments that take our insurance. 311 00:17:23,960 --> 00:17:27,200 Speaker 1: And that's important because what they want, what we want 312 00:17:27,280 --> 00:17:30,200 Speaker 1: is to be bigger and stronger and provide that guarantee 313 00:17:30,600 --> 00:17:34,119 Speaker 1: to the market in order to create greater liquidity, greater 314 00:17:34,240 --> 00:17:40,160 Speaker 1: security um UM investment portfolios that retail and institutional investors owned. 315 00:17:41,280 --> 00:17:43,919 Speaker 1: All right, Seohan, We're also doing an informal poll on 316 00:17:44,760 --> 00:17:47,840 Speaker 1: your favorite college bar in the Washington, D C. Area. 317 00:17:47,880 --> 00:17:51,000 Speaker 1: You're Georgetown grad. Where did you go? Well, you know, 318 00:17:51,119 --> 00:17:56,160 Speaker 1: when when I was at Georgetown, UM the third Edition 319 00:17:56,280 --> 00:18:00,080 Speaker 1: was a very popular place, um uh and uh and 320 00:18:00,119 --> 00:18:03,520 Speaker 1: I went to actually bartended a place called the Foundary UM. 321 00:18:03,600 --> 00:18:06,400 Speaker 1: So I'm not objective. I thought the founder was pretty 322 00:18:06,440 --> 00:18:09,359 Speaker 1: terrific as well, very cool. All right, Hey, Sean, great 323 00:18:09,359 --> 00:18:11,440 Speaker 1: having on the program. Thanks so much for joining us. 324 00:18:11,760 --> 00:18:15,919 Speaker 1: Sean McCarthy, co founder and the CEO of Build America Mutual. 325 00:18:20,800 --> 00:18:23,920 Speaker 1: Speaking just from myself, I tend to get a lot 326 00:18:23,960 --> 00:18:27,040 Speaker 1: of value out of attending conferences, and my career spent 327 00:18:27,119 --> 00:18:29,240 Speaker 1: mostly to investor conferences. I found it a good way 328 00:18:29,240 --> 00:18:32,080 Speaker 1: to you know, meet with clients, talk to other folks, 329 00:18:32,119 --> 00:18:35,160 Speaker 1: get some new ideas, see new companies, that kind of thing. 330 00:18:35,280 --> 00:18:38,040 Speaker 1: I even enjoyed the Consumer Electronics Show in Vegas, which 331 00:18:38,080 --> 00:18:41,160 Speaker 1: is a couple hundred thousand tech geeks kind of getting 332 00:18:41,200 --> 00:18:44,000 Speaker 1: together every January. But of course the pandemics put the 333 00:18:44,040 --> 00:18:46,600 Speaker 1: kai bosh on the whole conference biz and we're doing 334 00:18:46,600 --> 00:18:49,760 Speaker 1: everything virtually. So let's see how this might develop going forward. 335 00:18:49,800 --> 00:18:55,480 Speaker 1: Ben Choulder, president of Notified, joins us UH. Notified provide 336 00:18:55,520 --> 00:18:59,800 Speaker 1: software for virtual events. Uh so Ben talked to us 337 00:18:59,800 --> 00:19:03,520 Speaker 1: about what your business has experienced during this pandemic. I 338 00:19:03,560 --> 00:19:05,679 Speaker 1: gotta think there's a lot of demand for what you 339 00:19:05,720 --> 00:19:10,280 Speaker 1: guys do at Notified. Oh my, so, first, thank you 340 00:19:10,320 --> 00:19:13,679 Speaker 1: for having me on the show. I'm a big fan. Um. 341 00:19:13,840 --> 00:19:20,200 Speaker 1: But it is totally change or largest vertical and streaming 342 00:19:20,280 --> 00:19:25,920 Speaker 1: organizations actually moved right. So now it went from something 343 00:19:25,960 --> 00:19:28,680 Speaker 1: that was a great way to reach a global audience 344 00:19:28,760 --> 00:19:31,560 Speaker 1: or an extended audience to something that you had to 345 00:19:31,640 --> 00:19:34,800 Speaker 1: do in twenty so. You know, everyone used to say 346 00:19:34,800 --> 00:19:38,800 Speaker 1: that virtual events would eventually cannibalize physical events. It's not 347 00:19:39,000 --> 00:19:42,879 Speaker 1: virtual it's not virtual events that cannibalize physical events. The 348 00:19:42,920 --> 00:19:46,600 Speaker 1: world cannibalize physical events. So everyone in twenty had a 349 00:19:46,600 --> 00:19:50,439 Speaker 1: hop on board, and everyone in continued and now the 350 00:19:50,520 --> 00:19:54,320 Speaker 1: trend is heading towards you know, hybrid, right, it's time 351 00:19:54,359 --> 00:19:58,320 Speaker 1: to do both. Have bases in places and that's that 352 00:19:58,359 --> 00:20:01,280 Speaker 1: seems pretty clear. Ben. What you do it notified to 353 00:20:01,320 --> 00:20:06,159 Speaker 1: healthy industry. So we as an organization provide the platform 354 00:20:06,280 --> 00:20:09,960 Speaker 1: where the event tech platform, whether you're doing a physical 355 00:20:10,000 --> 00:20:13,000 Speaker 1: event and you wanted to manage the event, whether you're 356 00:20:13,040 --> 00:20:16,199 Speaker 1: doing a virtual event and wanted to have you know, 357 00:20:16,560 --> 00:20:22,200 Speaker 1: tens of thousands of people attend sessions and breakouts and exhibits, 358 00:20:23,000 --> 00:20:25,920 Speaker 1: or even if you're doing a hybrid, right, we were 359 00:20:25,960 --> 00:20:28,800 Speaker 1: doing hybrid pre COVID. It allows you to actually have 360 00:20:28,960 --> 00:20:32,239 Speaker 1: that physical audience and the virtual And you brought up 361 00:20:32,280 --> 00:20:36,239 Speaker 1: cs like c S last year when virtual and had 362 00:20:36,400 --> 00:20:40,200 Speaker 1: eighty thousand people attend. This year, they've decided or going 363 00:20:40,240 --> 00:20:42,480 Speaker 1: into twenty two, they decided to do it as a hybrid. 364 00:20:42,800 --> 00:20:44,520 Speaker 1: And if you read the news, you know they've had 365 00:20:44,520 --> 00:20:48,199 Speaker 1: a fifteen thousand people register in the last two weeks. 366 00:20:48,440 --> 00:20:51,600 Speaker 1: People are dying to attend, but they also know that 367 00:20:51,640 --> 00:20:55,440 Speaker 1: there will be such a demand for the virtual element 368 00:20:55,520 --> 00:20:58,040 Speaker 1: as well, So they're actually doing a true hybrid for 369 00:20:58,080 --> 00:21:01,600 Speaker 1: the first time. Alright, so cee s hybrid. We know 370 00:21:01,680 --> 00:21:04,880 Speaker 1: that as of this moment, Davos is going to be 371 00:21:05,560 --> 00:21:09,199 Speaker 1: live in Switzerland. That's another big one for global business folks. 372 00:21:09,720 --> 00:21:12,000 Speaker 1: How about some of the other conferences, whether it's just 373 00:21:12,080 --> 00:21:15,119 Speaker 1: you know, a company wants to get their salesforce together, 374 00:21:15,560 --> 00:21:17,960 Speaker 1: you know in some warm locale in Florida or the desert, 375 00:21:18,119 --> 00:21:21,560 Speaker 1: or you know, an investment bank wants to have its 376 00:21:21,560 --> 00:21:24,000 Speaker 1: a conference with its investors. What are you hearing on 377 00:21:24,040 --> 00:21:28,040 Speaker 1: that front for We're hearing that it's going to be 378 00:21:28,280 --> 00:21:31,160 Speaker 1: a hybrid if they're gonna do both. They want to 379 00:21:31,240 --> 00:21:34,920 Speaker 1: have the interaction of being at the event, but they 380 00:21:35,000 --> 00:21:40,080 Speaker 1: also understand that organizations aren't going to be feel very comfortable, 381 00:21:40,080 --> 00:21:42,880 Speaker 1: and not all organizations can feel comfortable in the beginning 382 00:21:42,960 --> 00:21:47,120 Speaker 1: of twenty two sending everyone to a location plus individuals 383 00:21:47,160 --> 00:21:49,520 Speaker 1: aren't gonna feel comfortable. So they want to give them 384 00:21:49,520 --> 00:21:52,359 Speaker 1: a choice. So you got to allow the audience to 385 00:21:52,400 --> 00:21:55,760 Speaker 1: participate in multiple ways. I mean, there's great advantages of 386 00:21:55,800 --> 00:21:58,760 Speaker 1: it too. Rite It's it's cost effective, it's better for 387 00:21:58,800 --> 00:22:02,159 Speaker 1: the environment. It's great E s G. What they what 388 00:22:02,280 --> 00:22:04,600 Speaker 1: we all learned in twenty and twenty one is it 389 00:22:04,640 --> 00:22:07,320 Speaker 1: also allows you to expand your audience. So more and 390 00:22:07,359 --> 00:22:10,000 Speaker 1: more organizations are planning their s k oh. If you 391 00:22:10,040 --> 00:22:13,000 Speaker 1: can't attend in person, pretend in person, If you need 392 00:22:13,080 --> 00:22:17,439 Speaker 1: to attend remotely, pretend remotely. So I think it just 393 00:22:17,560 --> 00:22:21,440 Speaker 1: opens up the world for you to attend a conference, 394 00:22:21,440 --> 00:22:25,840 Speaker 1: whether you're physical or virtual. So and frankly, the main 395 00:22:25,880 --> 00:22:28,080 Speaker 1: thing that Paul loves about going to the office is 396 00:22:28,119 --> 00:22:30,320 Speaker 1: it's basically a conference every day. Are I don't know 397 00:22:30,320 --> 00:22:33,159 Speaker 1: if you've been to our headquarters one Luxington Avenue, but 398 00:22:33,240 --> 00:22:37,760 Speaker 1: it's an incredible space and of course being there with 399 00:22:37,880 --> 00:22:41,960 Speaker 1: your co workers is really beneficial. The same as true 400 00:22:42,000 --> 00:22:44,399 Speaker 1: at Big Banks. We've heard all the CEOs tell us, 401 00:22:44,880 --> 00:22:47,240 Speaker 1: is it possible to have a hybrid experience like that 402 00:22:47,240 --> 00:22:51,720 Speaker 1: that works as well. It's possible to have a hybrid 403 00:22:51,760 --> 00:22:55,639 Speaker 1: experience to get people engage and delivering the content. But 404 00:22:55,760 --> 00:22:57,879 Speaker 1: nothing's going to take the place of when I'm in 405 00:22:57,960 --> 00:23:01,040 Speaker 1: your office or at a Bloomberg conference and being able 406 00:23:01,080 --> 00:23:03,360 Speaker 1: to walk up to someone and have a conversation. It's 407 00:23:03,359 --> 00:23:07,679 Speaker 1: a different kind of engagement. They both very valuable, but 408 00:23:07,720 --> 00:23:10,560 Speaker 1: it's a different engagement. And I don't think there's any technologies. 409 00:23:10,600 --> 00:23:13,600 Speaker 1: You know, the metaverse is not going to replace you 410 00:23:13,640 --> 00:23:16,439 Speaker 1: and I having a cup of coffee or a conversation together. 411 00:23:17,600 --> 00:23:22,520 Speaker 1: So how would you characterize two in terms of physical conferences? 412 00:23:22,960 --> 00:23:26,520 Speaker 1: Would it be levels or are we still well below 413 00:23:26,720 --> 00:23:28,600 Speaker 1: kind of where we were pre pandemic? Would you guess? 414 00:23:29,400 --> 00:23:32,879 Speaker 1: I think the quantity of events will be back to 415 00:23:33,000 --> 00:23:38,040 Speaker 1: pre COVID. I think the attendance level would be about less. 416 00:23:38,040 --> 00:23:40,639 Speaker 1: But by making it virtual, you have a potential even 417 00:23:40,720 --> 00:23:43,560 Speaker 1: growing your audience. And if you do a really good 418 00:23:43,680 --> 00:23:47,000 Speaker 1: virtual event, it's gonna make people want to attend. I 419 00:23:47,040 --> 00:23:51,080 Speaker 1: also think the biggest trend going into twenty two is 420 00:23:51,119 --> 00:23:55,920 Speaker 1: the seven three sixty five always on environment. The three 421 00:23:56,000 --> 00:23:58,080 Speaker 1: days of a conference is where you're gonna be there 422 00:23:58,119 --> 00:24:02,080 Speaker 1: meeting with everyone, But what about the fifty weeks the 423 00:24:02,119 --> 00:24:04,480 Speaker 1: rest of the year, you know, the other days, the 424 00:24:04,520 --> 00:24:07,320 Speaker 1: three hundred and sixty other days of the year. How 425 00:24:07,320 --> 00:24:09,600 Speaker 1: are you going to interact and keep that content going 426 00:24:09,640 --> 00:24:13,479 Speaker 1: and engage yep, And it sounds uh. The word hybrid 427 00:24:13,480 --> 00:24:16,040 Speaker 1: seems to be working forward, not just work environment, but 428 00:24:16,080 --> 00:24:19,320 Speaker 1: also potentially for other parts of the economy as well, 429 00:24:19,359 --> 00:24:23,720 Speaker 1: including live events. Ben Chowder, president of Notified, he's into 430 00:24:23,760 --> 00:24:26,320 Speaker 1: that virtual side of the business, giving us some good 431 00:24:26,320 --> 00:24:29,440 Speaker 1: color here talking to us about the whole conference biz. 432 00:24:29,720 --> 00:24:32,080 Speaker 1: Likely to be more of a hybrid offering in that 433 00:24:32,200 --> 00:24:34,639 Speaker 1: long term could be a good thing. And again consume 434 00:24:34,680 --> 00:24:37,679 Speaker 1: Electronics show in January, a couple hundred thousand people in Vegas, 435 00:24:37,800 --> 00:24:42,200 Speaker 1: Davos in Switzerland. They're back on. Thanks for listening to 436 00:24:42,200 --> 00:24:45,760 Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Markets podcast. You can subscribe and listen to 437 00:24:45,800 --> 00:24:49,960 Speaker 1: interviews with Apple Podcasts or whatever podcast platform you prefer. 438 00:24:50,320 --> 00:24:54,280 Speaker 1: I'm Matt Miller. I'm on Twitter at Matt Miller three. 439 00:24:54,720 --> 00:24:57,200 Speaker 1: Pet On Ball Sweeney I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney. 440 00:24:57,280 --> 00:25:00,440 Speaker 1: Before the podcast, you can always catch us worldwide Bloomberg 441 00:25:00,480 --> 00:25:00,720 Speaker 1: Radio