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Speaker 1: Col Zone Media.

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Speaker 2: Hello everyone, and welcome to it could happen here. My

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Speaker 2: name is Dana al Kurd and I'm a writer, analyst,

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Speaker 2: and researcher of Palestinian and Arab politics. I'm an associate

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Speaker 2: professor of political science and a senior non resident fellow

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Speaker 2: at the Arab Center Washington. I'm recording this on October nineteenth,

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Speaker 2: twenty twenty five. Negotiators from a number of countries and

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Speaker 2: Israel were in Cairo recently discussing the next phase of

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Speaker 2: the ceasefire agreement between Hamas and Israel. Hamas has since

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Speaker 2: released all remaining Israeli hostages as well as the bodies

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Speaker 2: of those who were killed, and Israel has withdrawn from

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Speaker 2: certain parts of the Gaza Strip and started to release

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Speaker 2: political prisoners as well as the bodies of Palestinians who

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Speaker 2: have been killed after they were detained since October seventh.

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Speaker 2: Some of the testimonies from these prisoners is just incredibly

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Speaker 2: heart to stomach. The degree of the humanization that's been

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Speaker 2: allowed to take place in these Israeli prisons, the torture

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Speaker 2: and abuse that they faced, is truly truly harrowing. Some

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Speaker 2: of the Palestinian bodies that have been released, are mutilated

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Speaker 2: with extreme signs of torture. Some were released blindfolded and cuffed,

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Speaker 2: returned with a noose around their neck. Greta Tunberg, who

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Speaker 2: was on the flotilla recently trying to break the siege

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Speaker 2: of Gaza, just also returned from Israeli prison where she

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Speaker 2: was also abused and stripped and mistreated. She said in

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Speaker 2: a recent interview, if they do this to a white

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Speaker 2: person with a Swedish passport, we can only imagine what

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Speaker 2: they do to Palestinians. And of course we are seeing

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Speaker 2: this play out before our eyes. In a fair and

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Speaker 2: just world where international law meant something, there would be

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Speaker 2: consequences for this. Instead, today I want to talk about

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Speaker 2: this plan that's been proposed by the Trump administration, the

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Speaker 2: Point Piece Plan for Gaza. Reportedly, ex UK Prime Minister

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Speaker 2: Tony Blair has been consulting with Trump and his son

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Speaker 2: in law slash adviser Jared Kushner for some time hashing

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Speaker 2: this plan out. We'll get back to him in a bit,

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Speaker 2: as he's quite the character. This plan, as the name suggests,

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Speaker 2: has twenty points, but it's a little light on details.

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Speaker 2: It outlines the return of remaining Israel hostages very quickly

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Speaker 2: within seventy two hours. It says the Gaza Strip needs

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Speaker 2: to be quote demilitarized. It talks about the creation of

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Speaker 2: an international stabilization force, an international security force to operate

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Speaker 2: on the ground in Gaza with the eventual withdrawal of

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Speaker 2: Israeli troops, but within a buffer zone, and this force

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Speaker 2: would consist of soldiers from other countries. It also talks

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Speaker 2: about the formation of a quote technocratic, apolitical Palestinian temporary

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Speaker 2: government to run the Gaza Strip territory until the peace

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Speaker 2: process is concluded. But this temporary Palestinian government would only

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Speaker 2: be allowed to engage in service provision nothing more. That

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Speaker 2: government would also be overseen by a quote Board of

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Speaker 2: Peace run by Trump himself, his pal Tony Blair, and

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Speaker 2: other yet unspecified members. There is some language on the

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Speaker 2: economic development of a quote new Gaza, and some discussion

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Speaker 2: of initiatives to promote tolerance, essentially to deradicalize Palestinians. Notably,

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Speaker 2: the plan does not endorse ethnic cleansing of Palestinians from Gaza,

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Speaker 2: which was wildly a serious thing on the table for

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Speaker 2: a few months that Trump endorsed. But what it does

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Speaker 2: say is still pretty insidious. Essentially, the plan says that

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Speaker 2: a possible pathway to Palestinian self determination and statehood is

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Speaker 2: conditioned on advances in quote Gaza's redevelopment and a quote

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Speaker 2: Palestinian authority reform program that is faithfully carried out. Only then,

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Speaker 2: the plan says, quote conditions may finally be in place

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Speaker 2: for a credible pathway to Palestinian self determination and statehood. Basically,

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Speaker 2: if the Palestinians do good, if they comply with the

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Speaker 2: International Security Force, if they take orders from the Board

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Speaker 2: of Peace and quote reform the PA in some way,

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Speaker 2: and what that means is a really big open question,

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Speaker 2: then maybe their demands for self determination in statehood will

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Speaker 2: eventually be discussed. As I've said before on previous episodes,

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Speaker 2: that statehood part is a bit tricky because statehood means

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Speaker 2: different things to different people. Apparently, Jared Kushner talked about

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Speaker 2: maybe giving Palestinians a state without the annoying little detail

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Speaker 2: of actual sovereignty. The Israeli prime minister that signed the

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Speaker 2: Oslo Accords yet Zakrabin, which was the first time Palestinians

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Speaker 2: and Israelis a reed to anything directly said after signing

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Speaker 2: that Israel would only ever give Palestinians something quote less

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Speaker 2: than a state. The international community keeps recognizing a Palestinian

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Speaker 2: state when the Palestinians don't really have control of any territory.

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Speaker 2: It's like is the state in the room with us now.

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Speaker 2: It's also important to note here that the plan that

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Speaker 2: Trump is proposing doesn't really include any Palestinian input, at

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Speaker 2: least meaningfully. The goal from Israel and the US's perspective

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Speaker 2: is for Hamas to be removed from the equation altogether.

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Speaker 2: There's some discussion actually still of whether they will actually

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Speaker 2: disarm or not, because Hamas has said to the media

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Speaker 2: that it's not considering this. And as I mentioned, there

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Speaker 2: is this throwaway line about reforming the Palestinian authority, but

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Speaker 2: what that means and how the Palestinian people actually factor

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Speaker 2: in isn't addressed. Here's my educated guess. When Trump, an Israel,

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Speaker 2: and the international community say they want to reform the PA,

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Speaker 2: we have to look at what they've been doing and

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Speaker 2: pushing for in the past couple of months to understand

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Speaker 2: what that actually means. So for them, if we look

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Speaker 2: at their track record, reforming the PA means figuring out

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Speaker 2: an acceptable alternative from their perspective, to replace the octagenarian

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Speaker 2: Palestinian President Mahmud Abbas, so that the PA can seem

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Speaker 2: on paper more legitimate and better positioned to sign away

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Speaker 2: Palestinian rights during future negotiations. They've already been pushing behind

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Speaker 2: the scenes to set that up. They pressured Abbas to

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Speaker 2: convene the Palestine Liberation Organization Central Council, change the bylaws,

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Speaker 2: create a vice president position, and appoint the guy that's

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Speaker 2: acceptable to the US and Israel to that role. That

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Speaker 2: man was Sena Cher, Palestinian businessman and former security guy

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Speaker 2: who polls at two percent with Palestinians. What reforming the

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Speaker 2: PA does not mean it looks like, is actual democratic

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Speaker 2: reform where Palestinians can choose not only their president but

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Speaker 2: also on their legislative representatives and on the PLO legislative body,

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Speaker 2: the National Council. It looks like reforming the PA doesn't

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Speaker 2: mean all Palestinians will be allowed to participate if limited

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Speaker 2: elections are held, and it seems it doesn't mean responding

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Speaker 2: to what Palestinian civil society has been asking for, which

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Speaker 2: is reforming the PA by reforming the PLO altogether, so

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Speaker 2: that all Palestinians can participate in the discussion of national liberation.

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Speaker 2: We can guess that the US, Israel, and the international

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Speaker 2: community quote unquote are unlikely to offer any of this

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Speaker 2: because they've propped up the PA in the past and

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Speaker 2: seem intent on propping up some puppet government of the

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Speaker 2: PA in the future. But they need the PA, as

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Speaker 2: some acceptable Palestinian entity to be even tangentially involved in

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Speaker 2: future negotiations so that they can say, look, the Palestinians

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Speaker 2: agree to this is legitimate, even if that PA doesn't

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Speaker 2: represent people. Even if most Palestinians eighty five percent in

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Speaker 2: the latest poll are dissatisfied with the PA's conduct and

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Speaker 2: forty two percent support the the solution of the PA altogether,

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Speaker 2: this is a dangerous game to play. Any sort of

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Speaker 2: peace process in the future, as impossible as it seems

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Speaker 2: at this current moment, that isn't predicated on the complete

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Speaker 2: annihilation of one side of the conflict, will need some

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Speaker 2: degree of public support. It will need societies involved in

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Speaker 2: this conflict to buy into the process. Otherwise you get spoilers,

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Speaker 2: you get political actors engaging violence to disrupt the peace process,

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Speaker 2: or you don't really resolve the underlying issues in an

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Speaker 2: even compromised, satisfactory way, and people get upset and the

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Speaker 2: conflict continues. So if you don't include people's buy in,

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Speaker 2: what you're banking on is being able to suppress people,

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Speaker 2: and what you want isn't really peace. It's authoritarian conflict management.

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Speaker 2: It's illiberal. It maintains structural violence in the name of

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Speaker 2: preserving peace. It means Palestinians wouldn't get the rights they

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Speaker 2: have under international law, the right to self determination, and

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Speaker 2: it means the occupation in some form doesn't end. The

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Speaker 2: thing is this is well understood, and it's well understood

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Speaker 2: by the people involved in this twenty point piece plan

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Speaker 2: for Gaza. Tony Blair, for example, was Prime Minister of

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Speaker 2: the UK when the Northern Ireland conflict was being negotiated

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Speaker 2: and settled. He understood then that public buy in was important.

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Speaker 2: The Good Friday Agreement, which ended the conflict in Northern

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Speaker 2: Ireland for the past twenty seven years, had not one

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Speaker 2: but two referendums, one for the people of Northern Ireland

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Speaker 2: and one for the people of the Republic of Ireland.

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Speaker 2: The process of getting to the Good Friday Agreement also

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Speaker 2: included all groups militant groups from both sides of the conflict.

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Speaker 2: This is what it takes for a conflict to be

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Speaker 2: contained in some shape or form. But for some reason,

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Speaker 2: when international leaders or ex leaders in the case of

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Speaker 2: Tony Blair, think about conflicts in the Middle East involving Arabs,

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Speaker 2: then public buy in, democratic processes, sustainable peace no longer

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Speaker 2: factor into decision making. The buy in an opinion of

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Speaker 2: the public matters, but apparently only certain publics. In other conflicts, also,

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Speaker 2: like the breakdown of Yugoslavia, the perpetrators of genophsidal violence

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Speaker 2: were held accountable by international law. They were taken to

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Speaker 2: the Hague. They faced repercussions, of course, not perfectly, not entirely,

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Speaker 2: not everyone. Some parties of the conflict that emerged in

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Speaker 2: Bosnia after were rewarded for their violence. The vision of

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Speaker 2: the Serbian leadership that committed war crimes in Bosnia came

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Speaker 2: to fruition to some degree in the form of Republica

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Speaker 2: Serpska today, which is a semi autonomous region that divides

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Speaker 2: Bosnia Herzegovina. But nevertheless, the international community at least understood

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Speaker 2: the necessity of holding perpetrators accountable for violence and war crimes,

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Speaker 2: even if the execution was incomplete. In this case, there

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Speaker 2: is no such discussion. A number of human rights organizations

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Speaker 2: and the UN Commission of Inquiry on the Occupied Palestinian

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Speaker 2: Territory have found Israeli leaders President Isaac Hertzog, Prime Minister

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Speaker 2: Benjamin Netanyahu, and then Defense Minister Yuav Gallant personally responsible

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Speaker 2: for the decisions made in Gaza, the decision to engage

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Speaker 2: in genocide in Gaza, but the ceasefire plan, which they

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Speaker 2: are billing as a quote peace plan for a new Gaza,

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Speaker 2: and their time trying to make the basis of future

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Speaker 2: negotiations says nothing about accountability for crimes committed. Trump, in fact,

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Speaker 2: went in front of the Kanesset, the Israeli parliament, and

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Speaker 2: insisted on his support for Prime Minister Natanieho. He even

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Speaker 2: got involved in Nataniahu's corruption case that he has domestically

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Speaker 2: in Israel, addressing President Isaac Hertzog, as Kanesse members clapped

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Speaker 2: and jeered, hey, I have an idea, mister President. Why

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Speaker 2: don't you give him a pardon. That's what we're dealing

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Speaker 2: with here, Just an audacious, outrageous display of corruption on

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Speaker 2: so many levels. The fact that these guys are the

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Speaker 2: guys putting together the so called peace plan votes poorly

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Speaker 2: for the sustainability of this ceasefire agreement beyond the first phase.

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Speaker 2: Beyond Israel getting what it wants the hostages, a huge

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Speaker 2: buffer zone that leaves Israel in control of Gaza's former

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Speaker 2: urban areas, and possibly they might get the neutralization of Hamas,

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Speaker 2: it's not clear that this ceasefire agreement can actually advance

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Speaker 2: into a sustainable negotiation that maintains peace in the long run.

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Speaker 2: It's why scholar Marika Sosnowski at the University of Melbourne,

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Speaker 2: who studies ceasefire agreements in particular, calls this a strangle contract.

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Speaker 2: She notes that Israeli withdrawal, release of hostages, and full

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Speaker 2: aid being led into Gaza is the quote bare minimum

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Speaker 2: you would expect both sides to acquiesce to as part

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Speaker 2: of a ceasefire deal. She expresses concern that this agreement

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Speaker 2: is highly coercive and that it quote enables the more

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Speaker 2: powerful party to force the weaker party into agreeing to

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Speaker 2: anything in order for them to survive. This is in

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Speaker 2: direct contrast to a bargain between two equal parties that

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Speaker 2: can sustain peace. She also very rightly notes that Israel

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Speaker 2: could at any time claim the Palestinians are not abiding

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Speaker 2: by the terms of the agreement and and the ceasefire,

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Speaker 2: justifying restarting the war. The Palestinians have no leverage at

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Speaker 2: all in this agreement, and obviously they can't rely on

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Speaker 2: unbiased international mediation with the Trump and Kushner and Blairs

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Speaker 2: of the world. At the helm of this Sisnowski quotes

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Speaker 2: a Palestinian leader from Yermuk camp in Syria who said,

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Speaker 2: to her quote, if there is a ceasefire, people know

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Speaker 2: the devil is coming. I think that captures exactly everyone's

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Speaker 2: fears in this moment. The Palesadian Civil Defense Agency says

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Speaker 2: forty Palestinians have been killed in Gaza today October nineteenth.

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Speaker 2: Children have been shot and killed in the West Bank.

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Speaker 2: After the ceasefire agreement, Israel raided the family homes of

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Speaker 2: Palestinian prisoners in five districts across the West Bank before

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Speaker 2: releasing them. Nataniehu has said he won't open the Rafach crossing.

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Speaker 2: These all seem like Israeli violations to the ceasefire to me,

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Speaker 2: but that's not how it'll be reported. And because the

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Speaker 2: Trump administration has twisted the meaning of words where domination

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Speaker 2: equals peace and injustice equal stability. Once this happens, I

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Speaker 2: fear very few will question the premise of this agreement

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Speaker 2: and the entire peace process to begin with a peace

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Speaker 2: process for Palestinians aren't even allowed to participate. No one

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Speaker 2: can be surprised when this doesn't last, and no one

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Speaker 2: can be surprised that this cannot be the basis for

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Speaker 2: sustainable peace. But hey, I hope I'm wrong. Thank you

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Speaker 2: for listening to this episode of It Could Happen Here.

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Speaker 2: Here's hoping for justice and peace.

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Speaker 1: It could Happen Here is a production of cool Zone Media.

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Speaker 1: For more podcasts from cool Zone Media, visit our website

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Speaker 1: Coolzonemedia dot com, or check us out on the iHeartRadio app,

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Speaker 1: Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen to podcasts. You can

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Speaker 1: now find sources for it could Happen Here listed directly

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Speaker 1: in episode descriptions. Thanks for listening. Thank