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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast. I'm just about that action awesome.

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Speaker 1: All right, here we go throwing jo spec I'm saying

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Speaker 1: it's a cash toto. That's all we see. Most gamblers

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Speaker 1: when they go to gamble, they go to win. That's incredible.

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Speaker 1: Big bank, small banks. I like to make money. All right.

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Speaker 1: This is the ultimate kabah and we are underway. What's up, everybody?

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Speaker 2: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast presented by Bett MGM.

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Speaker 2: I'm your host, Chris Raybaund of The Action Network, and

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Speaker 2: on this show, we're gonna discuss.

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Speaker 1: The NFL preseason.

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Speaker 2: Here to break it down with me, one of the

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Speaker 2: top rankers in the game, the most accurate fantasy projector

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Speaker 2: for the last I don't know how many years, the

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Speaker 2: odds maker, Sean Kern or Sean, what's going on up?

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Speaker 3: I am very excited for today's pod. The preseason always

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Speaker 3: has a special place in my heart, and it's usually

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Speaker 3: a profitable time for me as well, So I think

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Speaker 3: more people should bet it. So I'm hoping we can convince,

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Speaker 3: you know, at least a few people to join in

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Speaker 3: on the fun with us this year.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, And of course, the NFL preseason gets underway with

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Speaker 2: the Hall of Fame game Thursday, August first, so that

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Speaker 2: kicks off real live football for us to finally bet on.

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Speaker 2: And you know, we'll talk about that game at the

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Speaker 2: end of the pod. That's the Houston Texans against the

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Speaker 2: Chicago Bears. But I want to start out by kind

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Speaker 2: of just talking about more generally. The preseason has a

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Speaker 2: reputation for being something that only degenerates enjoy. Do you

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Speaker 2: think that's still the case or do you think there

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Speaker 2: are and d significant edges to betting on the NFL preseason?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I guess it depends on what your definition of

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Speaker 3: a degenerate is. I definitely think there's an edge. And

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Speaker 3: you know, it's been months since we've been able to

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Speaker 3: bet on NFL games, and that changes next week. So

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Speaker 3: you're telling me people don't want to indulge in some

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Speaker 3: preseason betting, that's that's they're bad. I think they're the

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Speaker 3: ones missing out. So you know, while they sit around

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Speaker 3: waiting for Week one to happen, you know we're gonna

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Speaker 3: be betting on preseason watching these games. I think it's

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Speaker 3: also important to just point out that we're going to

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Speaker 3: be seeing players that might have to make starts. This here,

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Speaker 3: you know Tyson Bagent, Tommy DeVito and others. We're all

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Speaker 3: players I was very familiar with once the preseason wrapped up,

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Speaker 3: so when they had to make their spot starts, I

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Speaker 3: kind of already had an idea of, you know, how

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Speaker 3: good or bad they were, and just what you know,

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Speaker 3: general feel they had on the field. So I think

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Speaker 3: that it's it's also good like you know, capping for

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Speaker 3: the regular season as well, and I think there's a

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Speaker 3: pretty big edge if you have the right approach. I've

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Speaker 3: gone I think it's forty one and twenty two, so

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Speaker 3: sixty five percent on track bets and are at the

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Speaker 3: last three preseasons combined that we didn't have preseason twenty twenty,

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Speaker 3: so that that's right around when I started taking a

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Speaker 3: little bit more seriously the past few seasons, so probably

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Speaker 3: an even higher rate on props. There are some player

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Speaker 3: props for preseason as well, so I'm not saying just

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Speaker 3: blindly betting on preseasons. You know you're gonna be successfully.

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Speaker 3: You have to know what you're doing, you have to

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Speaker 3: do your homework. But I think there's a huge edge

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Speaker 3: there because at the end of the day, you know,

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Speaker 3: it's just it's kind of chaotic.

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Speaker 1: So if you if you.

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Speaker 3: Find an edge and you have a reason for it,

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Speaker 3: it's been very profitable.

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Speaker 1: Yeah.

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Speaker 2: I think if you're knowledgeable on things like the backup

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Speaker 2: quarterbacks and who those guys are and you know how

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Speaker 2: good they are, that can be a major edge, especially

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Speaker 2: if you kind of have a sense of which quarterbacks

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Speaker 2: will play and how long they'll play. Being knowledgeable and

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Speaker 2: you know, watching a lot of college football I think

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Speaker 2: helps because most of the guys that are gonna play

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Speaker 2: the most are gonna be rookies, undrafted free agents, younger

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Speaker 2: guys who really haven't been on display much.

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Speaker 1: You know.

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Speaker 2: Trends I think are interesting this time of year because

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Speaker 2: you know, the books are kind of creating more naive

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Speaker 2: so to speak, models, So if you kind of have

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Speaker 2: some some information that you can kind of differentiate yourself with,

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Speaker 2: I think it's interesting. Like, look about a quarter of

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Speaker 2: all preseason spreads open and close right around three. So

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Speaker 2: you know, for example, if you see a number that

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Speaker 2: does it it never reaches three, it can usually be

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Speaker 2: a tel you know, over the past decade plus preseason

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Speaker 2: dougs plus two or less that it opened inside of

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Speaker 2: three or seventy one, and forty one against the spread

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Speaker 2: sixty three percent. It's been profitable at nine in each

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Speaker 2: of the last nine preseasons, nine in the last ten.

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Speaker 2: You know, when it comes to your your overall process, Sean,

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Speaker 2: you mentioned you know how successful you've been. What what

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Speaker 2: is kind of your process uh for for kind of

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Speaker 2: uh you know, handicapping a preseason game of preseason sleeked.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, So I really have, you know, a bottom up

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Speaker 3: approach because I'm creating the player projections that you can

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Speaker 3: find at fancy Labs dot com uh and use those

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Speaker 3: with our models and tools to help you build you know,

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Speaker 3: DFS lineup. So I'm also using those to attack player props.

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Speaker 3: But in order to make these, you know, I'm trying

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Speaker 3: to get a sense as to which players are going

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Speaker 3: to play win well, you know, just understanding the hypothetical

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Speaker 3: team power rating during that time. So you already hit

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Speaker 3: the nail on the head. It really comes down to

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Speaker 3: quarterback play when it comes to preseason. I mean, that's

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Speaker 3: the most important position football. But you know every team

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Speaker 3: is going to have potentially three to four quarterbacks playing

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Speaker 3: sometimes you know, one per quarter. So I I create

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Speaker 3: QB charts for each game, for each matchup where I'm

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Speaker 3: kind of projecting where they're going to play win, and

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Speaker 3: they're you know, they're power rating how good they are.

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Speaker 3: And then it also, you know, you want to know

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Speaker 3: if the player's playing with the first team offense or

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Speaker 3: the second team offense, things like that, what players are

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Speaker 3: attached to. But at the end of the day, I'm

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Speaker 3: you know, identifying certain parts of the game where one

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Speaker 3: team might have an edge over the other, or you know,

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Speaker 3: both offenses might be humming. I might look at the over,

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Speaker 3: or you know, both quarterbacks are shitty, I'm looking at

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Speaker 3: the under. So I'm kind of using that approach. That's

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Speaker 3: why I tend to bet. I don't really bet on

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Speaker 3: the full game line or spread necessarily. Sometimes I think

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Speaker 3: there's a huge edge in the first quarter or the

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Speaker 3: first half, so all bet those before the game, and

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Speaker 3: then in game. I make a ton of endgame bets.

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Speaker 3: Sometimes I think, you know that this team's going to

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Speaker 3: have an edge coming out of halftime, so all bet

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Speaker 3: the second half line or just try to bet once

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Speaker 3: they get to the fourth quarter. So I'm really viewing

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Speaker 3: the game as four separate quarters because that's how teams

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Speaker 3: kind of handle it. So yeah, so that's kind of

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Speaker 3: my approach is I'm just really just trying to handicap

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Speaker 3: who's going to be in the game and how you know,

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Speaker 3: well they're gonna play while they're on the field.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm beginning to see why why you know, if

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Speaker 2: people like you and I are considered degenerates, you know,

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Speaker 2: just making that third quarter preseason that's you know, like, oh,

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Speaker 2: there's four different quarters. It's it's a lot, you know,

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Speaker 2: and and for people you know that that may be

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Speaker 2: listening that maybe aren't just going to be sitting there,

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Speaker 2: you know, hanging on every quarter of every preseason game,

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Speaker 2: it has to kind of streamline the process a little bit.

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Speaker 2: Let me just ask to start, you know, I think

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Speaker 2: something as simple as a depth chart might be, you know,

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Speaker 2: a starting point for someone if they're looking to to

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Speaker 2: better preseason game. How do you kind of incorporate depth charts?

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Speaker 2: Do do they even matter at all? Is it something

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Speaker 2: that that's valuable for the average NFL preseason better Yeah, No.

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Speaker 1: Of course they matter.

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Speaker 3: That's really I'd say the most important thing really when

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Speaker 3: it comes to preseason betting, because everyone that's suiting up

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Speaker 3: for that game will probably play. So I think knowing

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Speaker 3: you know how much a guy like Patrick Mahomes is

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Speaker 3: gonna play or who's coming in when Like, I think

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Speaker 3: that definitely matters, and like I mentioned that, the obviously

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Speaker 3: the quarterback matters.

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Speaker 1: You know.

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Speaker 3: An example would be if the Bengals up to hold

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Speaker 3: out Joe Burrow for a preseason game, but they want

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Speaker 3: to start you know, Jamar Chase and T Higgins and

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Speaker 3: have them play a quarter Jake.

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Speaker 1: Browning would benefit from that.

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Speaker 3: Whereas if if they're just saying we're gonna rest all

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Speaker 3: the starters and Jake Browning's out there with the second

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Speaker 3: thirt ring offense, you know you're gonna have to factor

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Speaker 3: that in as well, And especially when it comes to props.

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Speaker 3: I think it definitely matters the depth chart more so

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Speaker 3: when it comes to that because there's there's some games

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Speaker 3: where you're gonna have six, seven active running backs, so

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Speaker 3: it's really hard to pinpoint you know, one back's gonna

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Speaker 3: you know, see a bunch of touches, Whereas sometimes you'll

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Speaker 3: only have two to three even healthy running backs active,

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Speaker 3: so you know that one or all three of them

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Speaker 3: are going to see more touches than you typically see

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Speaker 3: in a preseason game so all that definitely matters. But

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Speaker 3: again I'm not saying that somebody should sit there and

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Speaker 3: you know, be like you said, degenerate like us. We're

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Speaker 3: doing all the work. You know, you can piggyback us

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Speaker 3: and kind of trust our process, but it's it's a

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Speaker 3: lot of work sitting there trying to figure out, you know,

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Speaker 3: who's gonna be playing, and you know, the evaluate all

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Speaker 3: the players that are gonna be in the game. It's

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Speaker 3: it's a lot of work. I'm not denying that, but

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Speaker 3: that's that's something that I'm already doing.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and maybe it may or.

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Speaker 2: May not be because we probably have you know, half

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Speaker 2: of these you know, third string depth trunch memorized in

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Speaker 2: our heads anyway. But you know, for me, I think

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Speaker 2: it it's more than just looking at the depth trup.

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Speaker 2: It's kind of and you kind of alluded to the

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Speaker 2: nuances of the roster battles. You know, which players a

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Speaker 2: team and its coaching staff wants to get a look at.

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Speaker 2: Which are usually going to be you know, rookies, guys

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Speaker 2: that really haven't played much, undrafted free agents, guys who

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Speaker 2: are you know, on the bubble for a potential special

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Speaker 2: team spot. Apparently you know, and kind of knowing too

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Speaker 2: who they prefer to bubble wrap and you know guys

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Speaker 2: that you know, typically if you're drafted on day two

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Speaker 2: even you're probably guaranteed a roster spot, you know, and

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Speaker 2: it's not until you start going into day three picks

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Speaker 2: that you start seeing, you know, rookies cut before year one.

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Speaker 2: Uh So it's kind of knowing those things. But I think,

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Speaker 2: you know, with the with the move from for you know,

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Speaker 2: it was for a while four preseason game, I think

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Speaker 2: back in the day it was it was what there

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Speaker 2: was six preseason games at one point.

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Speaker 1: Uh oh wow.

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Speaker 2: In the seventies, I think there was at its worst

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Speaker 2: it was like six preseason games and fourteen regular season

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Speaker 2: games or something.

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Speaker 3: Not.

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Speaker 2: Now we're down to you know, three and we're trying

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Speaker 2: to go toward an eighteenth regular season game at some point.

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Speaker 2: But uh uh, you know, I do think there's there's

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Speaker 2: kind of less uniformity and and it's it's more used

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Speaker 2: as just an extension of camp and a lot of

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Speaker 2: teams are also using the joint practices nowadays. So kind

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Speaker 2: of knowing using those depth charts and uh being able

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Speaker 2: to kind of determin Okay, who's gonna finish the game.

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Speaker 2: A lot of times those guys will play longer than

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Speaker 2: the rest of the depth chart who only might get

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Speaker 2: you know, a quarter, a half a quarter. So there's

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Speaker 2: a lot more nuance that is simply looking at the

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Speaker 2: depth chart and saying, Okay, you know this, this particular

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Speaker 2: string of players will uh you know, play this long.

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Speaker 2: It's kind of a mixed and match. And of course

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Speaker 2: quarterback quarterback information is always gonna be the most important

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Speaker 2: because a lot of times what will happen is like

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Speaker 2: the coaching staff will you know, detail their their quarterback plan,

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Speaker 2: you know, first particular game. A lot of times teams

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Speaker 2: carry an extra quarterback or two in camp, you know,

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Speaker 2: just to help with practice. So sometimes those camp bodies

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Speaker 2: uh finish out, especially early on.

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Speaker 1: But for you, you know you mentioned it. It is

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Speaker 1: a lot of information.

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Speaker 2: But you've obviously had a lot of success betting the preseason,

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Speaker 2: so all this information is out there now you can

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Speaker 2: add artificially generated information to that.

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Speaker 1: People got to be careful of.

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Speaker 2: So I guess the way I'll put it to you

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Speaker 2: is when you're looking to gain an edge betting the

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Speaker 2: NFL preseason, besides following a Sean Kerner, besides following Chris Raybond,

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Speaker 2: just in terms of NFL team news, et cetera.

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Speaker 1: Beats whatever, depth charts all that.

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Speaker 2: What is relevant, what is not relevant, what is noise,

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Speaker 2: what is maybe relevant but not doesn't really give you

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Speaker 2: an edge. And ultimately, when you're talking about news, like

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Speaker 2: what information particularly is the most valuable to you, and

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Speaker 2: that you're really looking to kind of filter out from

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Speaker 2: from all.

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Speaker 1: The puff pieces and noise and just useless information.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean there's a lot there, and I think

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Speaker 3: it's just years of experience of knowing coach speak. Every

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Speaker 3: coach is de different when it comes to the preseason

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Speaker 3: how they approach it. Like Sean McVay hates the preseason,

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Speaker 3: absolutely hates it. He never plays as starters. Even guys

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Speaker 3: that he might consider like on the bubble to start

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Speaker 3: doesn't play him. So just knowing that going into the preseason,

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Speaker 3: you're not gonna see Matthew Stafford, probably not going to

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Speaker 3: see Kyon Williams.

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Speaker 1: Especially since he was kind of banged up.

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Speaker 3: It seems like every week, like week one or two

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Speaker 3: of the preseason, usually week two, Andy Reid says he

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Speaker 3: wants Patrick Mahomes and the first team offense to play

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Speaker 3: the entire first half. That never happens. So he's gonna

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Speaker 3: say it again this year. Don't believe it. And you know,

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Speaker 3: he said that last year. And I think sometimes when

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Speaker 3: coaches say they want their offense to play the first half,

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Speaker 3: they really just want like a successful touchdown drive and

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Speaker 3: then they pull them. So some of the play calling

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Speaker 3: can be pretty aggressive early in the game when the

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Speaker 3: starters are out there, they just want like a really

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Speaker 3: good drive and get him out of the game. So

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Speaker 3: that's why I like betting those teams early on. So

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Speaker 3: last year his infamous you know, Mahomes is going to

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Speaker 3: play the entire first half. I just took the Chiefs

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Speaker 3: minus one and a half for the first quarter, and

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Speaker 3: they had two really rough drives just to start. They

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Speaker 3: went three and out and punted, so I figured, you know,

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Speaker 3: he's just gonna stay in the game for maybe one

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Speaker 3: more drive, and sure enough, of like seven seconds left

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Speaker 3: in the first quarter, Mahomes are an eighteen yard touchdown

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Speaker 3: pass to Justin Watson and then sure enough they pulled him.

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Speaker 3: So if you if you bet on the first half,

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Speaker 3: you were kind of pissed. But that's why that's specifically

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Speaker 3: on the first quarter, just because I've known that Andy

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Speaker 3: Reid always says this, and then Ma Holmes typically only

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Speaker 3: plays a couple of drives. So that's just a very

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Speaker 3: nuanced example. But that's kind of my point is everything's

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Speaker 3: you know, a little bit different. You're gonna see guys

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Speaker 3: have a great camp, and you're gonna see highlights on

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Speaker 3: Twitter and things like that. Their player props might get

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Speaker 3: juiced up. It doesn't mean that I'm betting, you know,

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Speaker 3: taking the over under either way, but a lot of

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Speaker 3: players might get some necessary or unnecessary hype and you

295
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Speaker 3: kind of have to decipher what's real and what isn't.

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Speaker 3: So that's kind of the fun part about preseason really

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Speaker 3: is kind of happy handicapping.

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Speaker 1: You know, what's smoke, what's what's real, and what's not.

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Speaker 3: But at the end of the day, I think coach speak,

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Speaker 3: uh specifically for every coach is a little bit different,

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Speaker 3: and just from years of experience, you kind of learned

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Speaker 3: how to like translate it.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and and coach speak I think goes right along

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Speaker 2: with media speak, and you know, I guess it's in

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Speaker 2: a general sense, you know, we're part of the media,

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Speaker 2: and in more general sense. But I mean specifically when

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Speaker 2: it comes to uh, you know, team beat writers and

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Speaker 2: people who are really kind of writing in the weeds

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Speaker 2: about each particular team and and and it's preseason plans, hopes,

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Speaker 2: aspirations and whatnot. A lot of times I think you're

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Speaker 2: going to see it an overly positive slant because you know,

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Speaker 2: these these writers for better or verse, their audience is

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Speaker 2: the team's fans, and so it you know, everyone's oh

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Speaker 2: and no right now.

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Speaker 1: So you don't want to be too doom and gloom.

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Speaker 2: So you got to remember that a lot of the

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Speaker 2: beat stuff you read and the puff pieces and camp

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Speaker 2: buzz are going to be a little bit biased, kind

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Speaker 2: of a little bit fluffy and and whatnot. And I

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Speaker 2: think also, I think a lot of that news, if

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Speaker 2: it really stands out, it's not ultimately going to be

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Speaker 2: too actionable, just because everyone's gonna everyone who does take

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Speaker 2: the time to kind of do a little extra legwork

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Speaker 2: is going to come upon, you know, like similar information.

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Speaker 2: So a lot of times like the market has already

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Speaker 2: factored it in. But I think for me, the most

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Speaker 2: actionable stuff is just going back to, uh that that

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Speaker 2: quarterback plan. You know, there's certain coaches that will, you know,

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Speaker 2: kind of weigh out their quarterback plans. You can't always

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Speaker 2: take it, you know, one hundred percent, but you know

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Speaker 2: that least you have kind of an idea of okay,

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Speaker 2: like are.

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Speaker 1: They are they looking to get you know, three quarterbacks

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Speaker 1: in the game? Is it more? Who is it for?

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Speaker 2: Is there any quarterback designated to play like an entire half?

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Speaker 2: Especially if they're talking the second half, who's not going

337
00:17:07,920 --> 00:17:11,639
Speaker 2: to play? Whether it's a quarterback or even someone you know,

338
00:17:11,960 --> 00:17:14,639
Speaker 2: another position, you can kind of get get get a.

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Speaker 1: Sense that way.

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Speaker 2: But I think those you know, specific plans, uh, you

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Speaker 2: still can't take full face value, but especially when they

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Speaker 2: pertain a quarterback, I think that's that that tends to

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Speaker 2: be the stuff I'm I'm looking for and a lot

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Speaker 2: of the other stuff, you know, you kind of have

345
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Speaker 2: to to filter out because you know, you've got you

346
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Speaker 2: just got so many players that are never gonna play

347
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Speaker 2: like a real NFL game, Like you got third string,

348
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Speaker 2: four string offensive lines playing just a lot of volatility

349
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Speaker 2: in that sense. But uh, kind of staying with you know,

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Speaker 2: this question of just information and its value, uh, for

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Speaker 2: for you as you're kind of going through your process

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Speaker 2: you know, handicapping a game, handicapping a slate. What are

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Speaker 2: your favorite, uh, specific or general sources of preseason intel?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, so, I mean the athletic is great at laying out,

355
00:18:08,600 --> 00:18:11,159
Speaker 3: you know, what the coaches are saying, some beat writers

356
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Speaker 3: are saying, and a lot of times, you know, they

357
00:18:13,240 --> 00:18:15,600
Speaker 3: kind of map out what the plan is for that

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Speaker 3: team going into the game.

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Speaker 1: I also just.

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Speaker 3: Search Google, like I'm just looking up specifically, like what

361
00:18:21,960 --> 00:18:23,439
Speaker 3: the plan is for that game, so it can come

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00:18:23,480 --> 00:18:27,560
Speaker 3: from any different sources. Twitter is great when it comes

363
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Speaker 3: to that. I'll get to that in a bit. But

364
00:18:29,359 --> 00:18:31,920
Speaker 3: Twitter is great for like breaking news right before the

365
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Speaker 3: game starts. There's been some situations in preseason that has

366
00:18:36,160 --> 00:18:40,160
Speaker 3: been key. PFF has a lot of good preseason data.

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Speaker 3: I create some sheets for myself to kind of reference

368
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Speaker 3: when I'm setting up projections and just kind of evaluating

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Speaker 3: how these quarterbacks do specifically in preseason, and you.

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Speaker 1: Know, it's it's a lot of work.

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Speaker 3: And again I don't I don't recommend emulating my approach

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Speaker 3: to a tea or anything, but you know, everyone should

373
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Speaker 3: feel free to leverage that. But it's a lot of

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Speaker 3: just scouting out, searching out information and you know, some

375
00:19:05,680 --> 00:19:08,080
Speaker 3: teams their beat writers are better than others. You kind

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00:19:08,119 --> 00:19:12,040
Speaker 3: of mention that is like some are very specific, you know,

377
00:19:12,160 --> 00:19:13,879
Speaker 3: getting down to what the game plan is.

378
00:19:13,960 --> 00:19:14,480
Speaker 1: Some aren't.

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Speaker 3: So there's a little bit more uncertainty there. And I

380
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Speaker 3: kind of put that in my QB charts when I

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Speaker 3: know for a fact a guy's going to be coming

382
00:19:21,880 --> 00:19:25,200
Speaker 3: in the game, and I have more like gray you know,

383
00:19:25,359 --> 00:19:28,720
Speaker 3: like uncertainty moments, and that's kind of when I'm watching

384
00:19:28,760 --> 00:19:32,840
Speaker 3: the game, I'm looking for that. But when i'm like

385
00:19:33,200 --> 00:19:35,440
Speaker 3: before the game, I think Twitter is the best place

386
00:19:35,520 --> 00:19:38,639
Speaker 3: to get like breaking news and the preseason there are

387
00:19:38,760 --> 00:19:40,879
Speaker 3: some spots where you get things that happen that won't

388
00:19:40,920 --> 00:19:44,000
Speaker 3: happen in the regular season. There was an example the

389
00:19:44,119 --> 00:19:48,480
Speaker 3: Rams Matt Gay like tweaked his hamstringer something, so McVeigh said,

390
00:19:49,000 --> 00:19:51,600
Speaker 3: we're just not gonna have a kicker today, So we're

391
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Speaker 3: gonna go for it on fourth down. We are going

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Speaker 3: to go for two every time.

393
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Speaker 1: That's it. That's our game plan.

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Speaker 3: And it'd be one thing like if it was Matthew

395
00:19:58,880 --> 00:20:01,680
Speaker 3: Stafford in the first team offense, you know that that

396
00:20:01,720 --> 00:20:04,239
Speaker 3: could actually help them out, who knows, But when it's uh,

397
00:20:04,720 --> 00:20:07,080
Speaker 3: you know, Brett Rippin and the third stringers. That is

398
00:20:07,160 --> 00:20:09,000
Speaker 3: not good for the offense. So I forget if I

399
00:20:09,560 --> 00:20:11,800
Speaker 3: faded the rams or took the under or something. But

400
00:20:12,240 --> 00:20:14,680
Speaker 3: that game was a disaster, and I found out that

401
00:20:14,800 --> 00:20:17,960
Speaker 3: news like on Twitter, so you kind of have to

402
00:20:18,040 --> 00:20:21,800
Speaker 3: react quickly to those things. There was another game, I

403
00:20:21,880 --> 00:20:23,840
Speaker 3: believe it was in Canada. There was like a pothole

404
00:20:24,440 --> 00:20:28,040
Speaker 3: in the end zone and they were contemplating they weren't

405
00:20:28,040 --> 00:20:30,120
Speaker 3: going to cancel the game, but they were contemplating making

406
00:20:30,200 --> 00:20:33,280
Speaker 3: the field like eighty yards. Yeah, and as this was happening,

407
00:20:33,320 --> 00:20:35,560
Speaker 3: I was thinking, they're either going to postpone it or

408
00:20:35,640 --> 00:20:37,720
Speaker 3: this game's gonna be played on an eighty yard field.

409
00:20:37,760 --> 00:20:40,600
Speaker 3: So I just hammered the over and you know, I

410
00:20:40,720 --> 00:20:42,520
Speaker 3: was tracking what was going on there and that was.

411
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Speaker 1: All on Twitter.

412
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Speaker 3: And sure enough, they played the game on an eighty

413
00:20:45,480 --> 00:20:49,000
Speaker 3: yard field and the game went over, but I think

414
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Speaker 3: I think it ended up going under the closing line.

415
00:20:51,600 --> 00:20:53,399
Speaker 3: So it was key to get on this early, and

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00:20:53,480 --> 00:20:56,600
Speaker 3: I think Twitter was the best for, you know, breaking

417
00:20:56,680 --> 00:20:59,000
Speaker 3: news like that, whereas you know you're not going to

418
00:20:59,040 --> 00:21:01,480
Speaker 3: find an updated article on the Athletic for something like that,

419
00:21:02,320 --> 00:21:04,320
Speaker 3: so usually like an hour before the game, I have

420
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Speaker 3: my Twitter list and I'm looking for any like quirky,

421
00:21:07,680 --> 00:21:12,040
Speaker 3: weird news that you can get in the preseason, especially

422
00:21:12,080 --> 00:21:14,800
Speaker 3: with like players getting ruled out. But I think Twitter's

423
00:21:14,800 --> 00:21:17,160
Speaker 3: the best the day of when you're when you're trying

424
00:21:17,160 --> 00:21:17,640
Speaker 3: to make bets.

425
00:21:18,760 --> 00:21:22,720
Speaker 1: Yeah, Twitter is obviously, you know, a valuable tool. You know.

426
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Speaker 2: The one thing is, you know, you can kind of

427
00:21:25,359 --> 00:21:27,280
Speaker 2: fall into the trap I think of you're kind of

428
00:21:27,320 --> 00:21:30,960
Speaker 2: waiting for something to react to, which you know you

429
00:21:31,080 --> 00:21:34,080
Speaker 2: might be too reactive. But yeah, for somebody like us

430
00:21:34,119 --> 00:21:37,000
Speaker 2: who's already you know, probably gonna better regardless and just

431
00:21:37,359 --> 00:21:39,320
Speaker 2: want to be able to to maybe get more bets in,

432
00:21:39,480 --> 00:21:42,000
Speaker 2: you know, react, I think Twitter is very valuable. I

433
00:21:42,040 --> 00:21:45,399
Speaker 2: would also say, you know, just for somebody listens to

434
00:21:45,440 --> 00:21:49,120
Speaker 2: this podcast, uh, you know, just the Action Network app.

435
00:21:49,160 --> 00:21:50,960
Speaker 2: A lot of times, you know, you can get alerts

436
00:21:51,000 --> 00:21:54,760
Speaker 2: when any action expert bets a game. And usually I

437
00:21:54,800 --> 00:21:57,240
Speaker 2: mean the people here, whether it's us or somebody else.

438
00:21:57,359 --> 00:22:01,240
Speaker 1: Yeah, you know, because we just do this for a living.

439
00:22:01,600 --> 00:22:03,040
Speaker 2: You know, if there's if there's an edge to be

440
00:22:03,119 --> 00:22:06,240
Speaker 2: had on a particular game, and uh, you'll probably figure

441
00:22:06,240 --> 00:22:08,040
Speaker 2: it out through the you know, through the game page

442
00:22:08,080 --> 00:22:09,920
Speaker 2: on the app, because you're probably you know, getting alert

443
00:22:09,960 --> 00:22:12,240
Speaker 2: that your favorite expert is betting it or multiple experts

444
00:22:12,280 --> 00:22:15,879
Speaker 2: are betting it at particular side or attacking an angle

445
00:22:16,520 --> 00:22:17,600
Speaker 2: in a certain type of way.

446
00:22:17,720 --> 00:22:20,440
Speaker 1: So that's very valuable. But yeah, I totally agree with

447
00:22:20,760 --> 00:22:23,000
Speaker 1: you know, you know, if you are going to kind

448
00:22:23,000 --> 00:22:25,119
Speaker 1: of pour over more you.

449
00:22:25,160 --> 00:22:29,000
Speaker 2: Know, minuche and in kind of team specific information, a

450
00:22:29,040 --> 00:22:33,240
Speaker 2: subscription based site like if if you can, whether it's

451
00:22:33,280 --> 00:22:36,760
Speaker 2: you know, something like the Athletic or even a specific paper,

452
00:22:36,880 --> 00:22:40,879
Speaker 2: a newspaper with a publication particular to that city, just

453
00:22:41,160 --> 00:22:44,960
Speaker 2: the more exclusive I think the information that you have

454
00:22:45,880 --> 00:22:48,840
Speaker 2: the better than just like you know, it's like what

455
00:22:49,160 --> 00:22:51,560
Speaker 2: the first thing that pops up on Google. I think

456
00:22:51,560 --> 00:22:53,560
Speaker 2: it's just more likely that more people know it in

457
00:22:53,600 --> 00:22:55,440
Speaker 2: the market that might or be factoring it in. But

458
00:22:56,000 --> 00:22:58,760
Speaker 2: one other thing I would have to to say for

459
00:22:58,880 --> 00:23:02,280
Speaker 2: me is, uh, just Action Labs, which is you know,

460
00:23:02,440 --> 00:23:06,000
Speaker 2: our our tool that you know you can filter all

461
00:23:06,119 --> 00:23:10,720
Speaker 2: past betting information and highlight trends and whatnot. Because I

462
00:23:10,800 --> 00:23:13,480
Speaker 2: think I mentioned earlier, but the books also aren't aren't

463
00:23:13,480 --> 00:23:16,840
Speaker 2: spending as much time setting these lines. The market doesn't

464
00:23:16,920 --> 00:23:18,960
Speaker 2: know as much so being able to kind of go

465
00:23:19,200 --> 00:23:22,600
Speaker 2: back and look over a lot of preseason betting data

466
00:23:22,680 --> 00:23:26,439
Speaker 2: quickly and identify trends. I think a lot of times

467
00:23:26,640 --> 00:23:29,520
Speaker 2: you're never gonna blindly better trend, but I think preseason

468
00:23:29,560 --> 00:23:32,439
Speaker 2: kind of lends itself to trends because the market can

469
00:23:32,480 --> 00:23:37,040
Speaker 2: be more of a tell in particular situation. So I'll

470
00:23:37,080 --> 00:23:39,720
Speaker 2: talk about some some particular trends have been profitable for

471
00:23:40,560 --> 00:23:43,680
Speaker 2: you know, like a decade plus in the preseason because

472
00:23:43,720 --> 00:23:44,640
Speaker 2: you only have three four games.

473
00:23:44,680 --> 00:23:46,440
Speaker 1: I'll talk about those in a bit.

474
00:23:46,560 --> 00:23:49,240
Speaker 2: But bet Labs is the way I and Action Labs

475
00:23:49,240 --> 00:23:51,600
Speaker 2: is the way I kind of, uh, you know, identify

476
00:23:51,680 --> 00:23:55,520
Speaker 2: that information quickly. So that that's another thing that you know,

477
00:23:55,600 --> 00:23:57,880
Speaker 2: if you're kind of interested in, be sure to check

478
00:23:57,920 --> 00:24:00,040
Speaker 2: that out. All right, So I want to talk a

479
00:24:00,040 --> 00:24:02,119
Speaker 2: little bit about Action Pro And if you're listening to

480
00:24:02,200 --> 00:24:06,040
Speaker 2: this podcast, you likely already have the Action Network app.

481
00:24:06,600 --> 00:24:09,800
Speaker 2: If you don't go downloaded, it's free to download, award

482
00:24:09,840 --> 00:24:10,359
Speaker 2: winning app.

483
00:24:10,960 --> 00:24:11,720
Speaker 1: Really excellent.

484
00:24:12,520 --> 00:24:15,320
Speaker 2: But if you want to take things to that next level,

485
00:24:15,359 --> 00:24:18,080
Speaker 2: and if you're listening to a preseason betting pod in

486
00:24:18,640 --> 00:24:21,280
Speaker 2: late July early August, you might just want to take

487
00:24:21,320 --> 00:24:24,399
Speaker 2: things to the next level, Action Pro is the answer.

488
00:24:24,880 --> 00:24:28,480
Speaker 2: It gives you access to premium articles from all of

489
00:24:28,520 --> 00:24:33,840
Speaker 2: the action experts, player prop picks, projection edges from Sean Kerner,

490
00:24:33,920 --> 00:24:38,640
Speaker 2: and the rest of the Action Network analytics, team, tools.

491
00:24:38,440 --> 00:24:39,680
Speaker 1: Models, and more.

492
00:24:39,840 --> 00:24:43,240
Speaker 2: Just go to Action network dot com slash pricing to

493
00:24:43,400 --> 00:24:45,439
Speaker 2: sign up, and right now you can get a one

494
00:24:45,520 --> 00:24:49,040
Speaker 2: year sub to Action Pro for one hundred and nineteen dollars.

495
00:24:49,119 --> 00:24:51,920
Speaker 1: That's less than ten dollars a month.

496
00:24:52,240 --> 00:24:55,200
Speaker 2: Includes access to all of our Action Pro content for

497
00:24:55,359 --> 00:24:58,520
Speaker 2: all sports, not just the NFL, So be sure to

498
00:24:58,560 --> 00:25:03,400
Speaker 2: visit actionnetwork dot com lash pricing to take advantage today.

499
00:25:04,280 --> 00:25:07,920
Speaker 2: And as we kind of continue our discussion of you

500
00:25:07,960 --> 00:25:10,800
Speaker 2: know how to get an edge in terms of preseason

501
00:25:10,880 --> 00:25:16,440
Speaker 2: betting and looking ahead to this preseason in particular, I

502
00:25:16,560 --> 00:25:23,119
Speaker 2: think my big picture question more generally is you.

503
00:25:23,160 --> 00:25:27,800
Speaker 1: Know, what are you looking for in this preseason? You know?

504
00:25:28,040 --> 00:25:30,280
Speaker 1: Is it you know? Teams? Is it players?

505
00:25:30,560 --> 00:25:30,720
Speaker 3: Is it?

506
00:25:30,880 --> 00:25:31,040
Speaker 1: You know?

507
00:25:31,160 --> 00:25:31,200
Speaker 3: What?

508
00:25:31,520 --> 00:25:34,320
Speaker 2: Are you kind of anything we should be eyeing or

509
00:25:34,560 --> 00:25:36,440
Speaker 2: just things that stand out to you as you look

510
00:25:36,440 --> 00:25:37,800
Speaker 2: ahead to twenty twenty four.

511
00:25:38,480 --> 00:25:42,000
Speaker 3: I mean everything, really, and I consider each game it's

512
00:25:42,040 --> 00:25:44,200
Speaker 3: own unique event. So I'm just looking forward to dive

513
00:25:44,240 --> 00:25:47,200
Speaker 3: into the game's matchups and then spot players when the

514
00:25:47,240 --> 00:25:50,120
Speaker 3: game's happening. Spot players I'm starting to think are better

515
00:25:50,240 --> 00:25:53,320
Speaker 3: or worse than I expected. And I remember last year

516
00:25:53,800 --> 00:25:58,879
Speaker 3: just being really impressed how much Jordan Love had grown

517
00:25:59,280 --> 00:26:02,000
Speaker 3: and he looked it's much more comfortable than years past.

518
00:26:02,080 --> 00:26:04,000
Speaker 3: So I that's when I started pegging him as a

519
00:26:04,080 --> 00:26:08,200
Speaker 3: breakout player. And this year's Geno Smith. I started saying that,

520
00:26:08,400 --> 00:26:10,600
Speaker 3: like that was preseason. That was just watching him in preseason.

521
00:26:11,800 --> 00:26:14,240
Speaker 3: So I think I'm just kind of like an open

522
00:26:14,280 --> 00:26:16,240
Speaker 3: book right now and just gonna let it come to me.

523
00:26:16,320 --> 00:26:19,639
Speaker 3: And I have all my opinions going into it, but well,

524
00:26:19,680 --> 00:26:21,960
Speaker 3: we'll get to some players I'm interested in watching, but

525
00:26:22,160 --> 00:26:26,080
Speaker 3: just overall, just every team, every player, I'm going to be,

526
00:26:26,320 --> 00:26:29,000
Speaker 3: you know, watching and see if anything stands out.

527
00:26:30,240 --> 00:26:32,400
Speaker 1: Yeah, And I think that's the thing, you know, there's

528
00:26:33,400 --> 00:26:35,960
Speaker 1: you kind of you mentioned it. It's you have to

529
00:26:36,040 --> 00:26:36,760
Speaker 1: be an open book.

530
00:26:36,760 --> 00:26:39,159
Speaker 2: I don't think you want to be kind of looking

531
00:26:39,600 --> 00:26:43,040
Speaker 2: for specifics in terms of what could happen in the

532
00:26:43,080 --> 00:26:46,000
Speaker 2: preseason and how you know, how it might you know,

533
00:26:46,160 --> 00:26:48,960
Speaker 2: factor into the larger betting trends, or it's in a

534
00:26:49,000 --> 00:26:52,080
Speaker 2: regular season or something but because there's the things that

535
00:26:52,200 --> 00:26:54,160
Speaker 2: I think end up being the most valuable, whether it's

536
00:26:55,119 --> 00:27:00,840
Speaker 2: you know, directly tied to betting in a particular preseason angle,

537
00:27:01,040 --> 00:27:04,520
Speaker 2: or something you know, investing in uh, you know, maybe

538
00:27:04,720 --> 00:27:08,080
Speaker 2: a player in fantasy or dfs for the regular season

539
00:27:08,359 --> 00:27:09,040
Speaker 2: or whatever it's.

540
00:27:09,520 --> 00:27:11,919
Speaker 1: You just got to kind of notice things as they

541
00:27:12,080 --> 00:27:12,359
Speaker 1: come up.

542
00:27:12,400 --> 00:27:14,720
Speaker 2: And an example for me, and then we'll kind of

543
00:27:14,760 --> 00:27:17,879
Speaker 2: talk about some players who were interested in seeing, and

544
00:27:17,960 --> 00:27:21,080
Speaker 2: then we'll get to some trends, some preseason specific trends

545
00:27:21,080 --> 00:27:24,720
Speaker 2: that I talked about earlier. But I remember last year

546
00:27:24,880 --> 00:27:27,800
Speaker 2: when there I believe it was the first preseason game

547
00:27:27,840 --> 00:27:32,200
Speaker 2: for the Texans and the Patriots, and at that point,

548
00:27:32,600 --> 00:27:33,200
Speaker 2: you know, c J.

549
00:27:33,320 --> 00:27:35,800
Speaker 1: Stroud didn't really look like like much of anything. I mean,

550
00:27:35,840 --> 00:27:36,959
Speaker 1: he was just getting his feet wet.

551
00:27:37,040 --> 00:27:40,520
Speaker 2: But I remember, within maybe four or five snaps of

552
00:27:40,640 --> 00:27:43,840
Speaker 2: watching Tank Dell, I was like, all right, this guy's

553
00:27:44,119 --> 00:27:46,200
Speaker 2: you know, he's already the best receiver on Houston.

554
00:27:46,320 --> 00:27:47,560
Speaker 1: Like I don't need to see much more of that.

555
00:27:47,680 --> 00:27:49,800
Speaker 2: And you know, obviously Nicol to end up having a

556
00:27:49,800 --> 00:27:52,159
Speaker 2: great year, but if I was able to kind of

557
00:27:52,480 --> 00:27:54,680
Speaker 2: you know, when I'm doing my weekly fantasy ranks in

558
00:27:54,800 --> 00:27:57,200
Speaker 2: season be more bullish on a guy like Dell, because

559
00:27:57,800 --> 00:28:00,359
Speaker 2: you know, I had remembered how good he looked in

560
00:28:00,480 --> 00:28:04,320
Speaker 2: that in that preseason Uh, in that preseason game that

561
00:28:04,400 --> 00:28:06,280
Speaker 2: I watched that you know, it was otherwise a very

562
00:28:06,400 --> 00:28:11,480
Speaker 2: nondescript Patriot Texan Uh uh, you know, snooze fest. I

563
00:28:11,560 --> 00:28:13,840
Speaker 2: believe it was for the most part, and I could

564
00:28:13,880 --> 00:28:16,040
Speaker 2: be wrong, but I just remember Tank Dell making it.

565
00:28:16,080 --> 00:28:17,879
Speaker 2: A couple of really good plays, running a couple of

566
00:28:17,920 --> 00:28:20,240
Speaker 2: really good routes, and uh, that kind of set in motion,

567
00:28:20,920 --> 00:28:24,000
Speaker 2: you know, things, you know during the regular season where Okay,

568
00:28:24,480 --> 00:28:26,640
Speaker 2: I'm more willing to invest in that Tank Dell over

569
00:28:26,760 --> 00:28:30,399
Speaker 2: on a prop or you know, rank him highly and weekly, uh,

570
00:28:30,600 --> 00:28:32,840
Speaker 2: you know, rankings and whatnot. So yeah, that that that's

571
00:28:32,960 --> 00:28:35,359
Speaker 2: just an example, and you're not gonna catch everything, and

572
00:28:35,600 --> 00:28:37,440
Speaker 2: certain things just aren't gonna be there. Like, you know,

573
00:28:37,760 --> 00:28:39,440
Speaker 2: I wish I could sit here and say, yeah, I

574
00:28:39,520 --> 00:28:42,000
Speaker 2: thought I saw it from which CJ. Stroud from the jump,

575
00:28:42,080 --> 00:28:46,240
Speaker 2: But I think I saw CJ. Stroud actively improve h

576
00:28:46,960 --> 00:28:48,720
Speaker 2: after the first two games of the regular season, and

577
00:28:48,800 --> 00:28:50,680
Speaker 2: I was able to kind of put that in perspective

578
00:28:50,680 --> 00:28:53,080
Speaker 2: because I'd seen them take some snaps in the preseason,

579
00:28:53,160 --> 00:28:56,000
Speaker 2: but uh, you know, they're the more you can kind

580
00:28:56,040 --> 00:28:58,880
Speaker 2: of watch the games, and the less you have to

581
00:28:59,280 --> 00:29:02,040
Speaker 2: just rely on and hearsay and and and you know,

582
00:29:02,200 --> 00:29:04,360
Speaker 2: pour through all these beats and see what's real and.

583
00:29:04,400 --> 00:29:05,680
Speaker 1: What's not the better.

584
00:29:05,760 --> 00:29:08,320
Speaker 2: So just being able to watch these games if you're

585
00:29:08,320 --> 00:29:12,400
Speaker 2: really interested, I do think helps because most people aren't,

586
00:29:12,920 --> 00:29:15,719
Speaker 2: you know, especially when it comes to preseason. And uh,

587
00:29:15,840 --> 00:29:19,360
Speaker 2: that's kind of segue too before we get to to trends.

588
00:29:20,120 --> 00:29:23,640
Speaker 2: I just my question is are there any players just

589
00:29:24,000 --> 00:29:26,960
Speaker 2: you're interested in in in seeing our teams or situations?

590
00:29:27,400 --> 00:29:27,520
Speaker 3: Uh?

591
00:29:27,800 --> 00:29:29,960
Speaker 2: You know, maybe it's because they it's going to provide

592
00:29:29,960 --> 00:29:32,400
Speaker 2: you an edge and in betting or fantasy. Maybe they're

593
00:29:32,440 --> 00:29:35,320
Speaker 2: just interested in some play see if some players hit

594
00:29:35,400 --> 00:29:35,800
Speaker 2: the field.

595
00:29:36,440 --> 00:29:37,640
Speaker 1: Who are you? What are you kind of or who

596
00:29:37,640 --> 00:29:38,480
Speaker 1: are you kind of looking for?

597
00:29:39,120 --> 00:29:39,239
Speaker 3: Uh?

598
00:29:39,640 --> 00:29:42,040
Speaker 1: Player wise twenty in twenty twenty four.

599
00:29:42,240 --> 00:29:44,320
Speaker 3: Yeah, I have a couple of players. The first is

600
00:29:44,440 --> 00:29:47,720
Speaker 3: Jalen Right of the Dolphins. He's their fourth round pick

601
00:29:48,200 --> 00:29:51,240
Speaker 3: of Tennessee. He's fast, four point three two forty time

602
00:29:52,080 --> 00:29:54,240
Speaker 3: just seems like a perfect fit for the Dolphins offense.

603
00:29:54,680 --> 00:29:58,280
Speaker 3: Granted he's gonna be behind Raheem Mosert and Devon.

604
00:29:58,120 --> 00:30:00,200
Speaker 1: A chan Uh this year, so.

605
00:30:01,800 --> 00:30:04,479
Speaker 3: You know, just one of a missing time might make

606
00:30:04,560 --> 00:30:08,560
Speaker 3: him relevant in fantasy. He's also a bigger back five

607
00:30:08,640 --> 00:30:11,040
Speaker 3: eleven two ten pounds, so he might be more durable

608
00:30:11,200 --> 00:30:13,800
Speaker 3: than those two backs. Maybe that's what they're looking for.

609
00:30:14,040 --> 00:30:15,920
Speaker 3: So I think he could see quite a bit of

610
00:30:15,960 --> 00:30:18,680
Speaker 3: work in preseason and you know, he could blow by

611
00:30:18,800 --> 00:30:22,920
Speaker 3: these second third string defenders. So I'm excited to see him,

612
00:30:24,000 --> 00:30:26,239
Speaker 3: and maybe he might help me win some bets too.

613
00:30:26,360 --> 00:30:29,480
Speaker 3: But the other guy I'm really excited to see, and

614
00:30:29,640 --> 00:30:34,080
Speaker 3: that's hen And Hooker, the quarterback for the Lions. You know,

615
00:30:34,200 --> 00:30:36,120
Speaker 3: he might have been forgotten about because he didn't play

616
00:30:36,600 --> 00:30:39,120
Speaker 3: at all last season in the preseason or regular season.

617
00:30:39,200 --> 00:30:42,000
Speaker 3: He was coming back from the ACL injury. But you know,

618
00:30:42,080 --> 00:30:44,880
Speaker 3: he was considered a first round talent. He fell to

619
00:30:44,920 --> 00:30:48,520
Speaker 3: the lines in the third round, maybe because teams thought

620
00:30:48,600 --> 00:30:51,840
Speaker 3: that the Tennessee offense was to gimmicky, but mainly because

621
00:30:52,040 --> 00:30:53,880
Speaker 3: you know, he was coming back from the ACL injury,

622
00:30:53,920 --> 00:30:56,000
Speaker 3: so they didn't want to waste you know, the rookie

623
00:30:56,040 --> 00:30:57,880
Speaker 3: season on a guy that probably wasn't going to play

624
00:30:57,920 --> 00:30:58,120
Speaker 3: at all.

625
00:30:58,200 --> 00:31:01,080
Speaker 1: But I'm interested to see how he looks.

626
00:31:01,640 --> 00:31:04,760
Speaker 3: I'm guessing he'll be Jared Goff's backup, so if he

627
00:31:04,800 --> 00:31:07,120
Speaker 3: were to miss time, he might make some starts this year,

628
00:31:07,160 --> 00:31:09,040
Speaker 3: but he could end up being you know, a solid

629
00:31:09,160 --> 00:31:11,320
Speaker 3: NFL quarterback. So I think when he's in the game,

630
00:31:11,520 --> 00:31:13,440
Speaker 3: I'll be looking to see how the market reacts. But

631
00:31:13,960 --> 00:31:16,840
Speaker 3: I think he's gonna look very good for you know,

632
00:31:16,960 --> 00:31:18,960
Speaker 3: second year player. But these will be the first reps

633
00:31:19,000 --> 00:31:22,040
Speaker 3: we're seeing with him in Allion's uniform, so he's he's

634
00:31:22,080 --> 00:31:24,240
Speaker 3: one player specifically I'm excited to see.

635
00:31:25,480 --> 00:31:27,720
Speaker 2: Yeah, we just really don't know how he looks in

636
00:31:27,800 --> 00:31:31,480
Speaker 2: the NFL, so I'm with you on that, and a

637
00:31:31,560 --> 00:31:36,160
Speaker 2: couple of guys for me, are saber worthy if he

638
00:31:36,240 --> 00:31:38,760
Speaker 2: actually gets on the field. I know he's been missing

639
00:31:38,800 --> 00:31:42,240
Speaker 2: some practice time, but he just because of the speed,

640
00:31:42,360 --> 00:31:45,160
Speaker 2: you know, always kind of interested to see how that

641
00:31:45,320 --> 00:31:48,520
Speaker 2: speed is going to look, you know, first time NFL uniform.

642
00:31:49,280 --> 00:31:51,440
Speaker 2: Is he is he really just gonna look like a bloy,

643
00:31:51,640 --> 00:31:54,560
Speaker 2: like a create, like a mad and creative player compared

644
00:31:54,600 --> 00:31:56,560
Speaker 2: to the other guys out there, And it's gonna be

645
00:31:56,760 --> 00:32:00,240
Speaker 2: kind of you know, exacerbated by the fact that a

646
00:32:00,280 --> 00:32:02,560
Speaker 2: lot of the guy who's playing on defense are gonna

647
00:32:02,560 --> 00:32:04,560
Speaker 2: be slower than you know, what you'd see in a

648
00:32:04,600 --> 00:32:07,200
Speaker 2: normal NFL game, But that's just just you know, just

649
00:32:07,320 --> 00:32:09,280
Speaker 2: because of that record breaking speed.

650
00:32:10,120 --> 00:32:11,480
Speaker 1: I think he's really interesting and.

651
00:32:12,120 --> 00:32:15,240
Speaker 2: Kind of gives you a sense of, you know, just

652
00:32:15,320 --> 00:32:17,200
Speaker 2: how bullsh to be on you know, a turnaround for

653
00:32:17,280 --> 00:32:19,600
Speaker 2: that that Chiefs pass offense, because I think if if

654
00:32:19,640 --> 00:32:21,640
Speaker 2: he if they can unlock him. In addition to having

655
00:32:22,040 --> 00:32:24,840
Speaker 2: Marquise Brown, you're really gonna add like a new dimension

656
00:32:25,160 --> 00:32:28,960
Speaker 2: in terms of field stretching that that's been lacking, especially

657
00:32:29,080 --> 00:32:32,960
Speaker 2: last year. But another one, uh, is the guy I'm

658
00:32:33,000 --> 00:32:36,160
Speaker 2: really interested to see. And this is not a household

659
00:32:36,240 --> 00:32:38,480
Speaker 2: name at all. I don't know if it's It might

660
00:32:38,560 --> 00:32:41,440
Speaker 2: be a little bit relevant if you're a fantasy player

661
00:32:41,480 --> 00:32:45,520
Speaker 2: and let's say Jamiir Gibbs goes down but Lions running

662
00:32:45,560 --> 00:32:47,920
Speaker 2: backs slash defensive back slash.

663
00:32:48,520 --> 00:32:48,640
Speaker 1: Uh.

664
00:32:48,840 --> 00:32:54,760
Speaker 2: You know special team return man Vaki the rookie out

665
00:32:54,800 --> 00:32:58,400
Speaker 2: of Utah. You know, he's a guy who he just

666
00:32:58,600 --> 00:33:01,360
Speaker 2: kind of pops on on tape. I got a chance

667
00:33:01,400 --> 00:33:03,720
Speaker 2: to see him a little bit in college. Uh, and

668
00:33:04,200 --> 00:33:07,400
Speaker 2: you know when he kind of started playing some some

669
00:33:07,600 --> 00:33:09,760
Speaker 2: running back. You always take note of guys like that

670
00:33:09,880 --> 00:33:12,080
Speaker 2: that that can make a position switching are athletic enough

671
00:33:12,120 --> 00:33:15,320
Speaker 2: to do it, and because a lot of times those

672
00:33:15,360 --> 00:33:17,320
Speaker 2: guys do end up popping at the NFL level at

673
00:33:17,360 --> 00:33:19,520
Speaker 2: some I mean, I remember when you know, Terrell Pryor

674
00:33:19,720 --> 00:33:21,960
Speaker 2: was going from like a quarterback to receiver and then

675
00:33:22,160 --> 00:33:23,640
Speaker 2: you know he had a couple of you know, big

676
00:33:23,720 --> 00:33:28,000
Speaker 2: games in DFS at receiver and it's it's tell you know, Darren.

677
00:33:27,760 --> 00:33:29,560
Speaker 1: Waller is a guy who's a wide receiver switched to

678
00:33:29,560 --> 00:33:30,040
Speaker 1: a tight end.

679
00:33:30,120 --> 00:33:32,480
Speaker 2: So, uh, this guy of a key, you know, he

680
00:33:33,080 --> 00:33:34,920
Speaker 2: he just kind of pops when when you look at

681
00:33:35,000 --> 00:33:37,640
Speaker 2: him as a running back and we talk about for

682
00:33:37,960 --> 00:33:41,920
Speaker 2: for something like uh fantasy or season one props, how

683
00:33:42,200 --> 00:33:44,760
Speaker 2: you know we're running back upside, Well, if Jamier Gibbs

684
00:33:44,800 --> 00:33:47,480
Speaker 2: goes down, you probably see you know, David Montgomery coming

685
00:33:47,480 --> 00:33:50,480
Speaker 2: into even more value. But if you kind of squint,

686
00:33:50,560 --> 00:33:52,280
Speaker 2: you could see if if GiB goes down and this

687
00:33:52,640 --> 00:33:55,200
Speaker 2: this guy of a key hits, he could kind of

688
00:33:55,240 --> 00:33:57,760
Speaker 2: be you know, play play some of that role and

689
00:33:57,880 --> 00:34:02,240
Speaker 2: give the Lions another uh explosive element to that offense,

690
00:34:02,240 --> 00:34:04,680
Speaker 2: as if they need more of that. So, uh, you

691
00:34:04,760 --> 00:34:06,760
Speaker 2: know he's a guy that I'm really kind of looking

692
00:34:06,800 --> 00:34:09,520
Speaker 2: at and interesting to see how he looks at especially

693
00:34:09,680 --> 00:34:14,000
Speaker 2: at running back this preseason. Okay, and you know we're

694
00:34:14,040 --> 00:34:17,480
Speaker 2: going to kind of talk about look ahead to the

695
00:34:17,560 --> 00:34:19,480
Speaker 2: Hall of Fame game, which is you know, the first

696
00:34:19,560 --> 00:34:21,600
Speaker 2: game up. But I do want to just touch on

697
00:34:22,360 --> 00:34:25,960
Speaker 2: some trends you know that that have kind of remained

698
00:34:26,040 --> 00:34:26,840
Speaker 2: profitable for.

699
00:34:27,680 --> 00:34:29,480
Speaker 1: A large sample size of preseason.

700
00:34:29,640 --> 00:34:31,840
Speaker 2: Remember this is not you know, like the NFL regular

701
00:34:31,920 --> 00:34:35,080
Speaker 2: season market, which is a lot I think sharper a lot.

702
00:34:35,200 --> 00:34:37,040
Speaker 2: You know, more bets are coming in, you know, here

703
00:34:37,120 --> 00:34:39,839
Speaker 2: you could find a lot more edges, not not as

704
00:34:39,880 --> 00:34:41,960
Speaker 2: many people betting these games.

705
00:34:42,040 --> 00:34:45,680
Speaker 1: But number one is just road teams in general.

706
00:34:46,160 --> 00:34:49,280
Speaker 2: When you're looking at the preseason, a lot of times,

707
00:34:49,760 --> 00:34:51,840
Speaker 2: you know, there's less information to go off of, so

708
00:34:52,320 --> 00:34:55,640
Speaker 2: like something as simple as a home field advantage, you

709
00:34:55,719 --> 00:34:58,120
Speaker 2: know essentially decides to spread. And a lot of these

710
00:34:58,160 --> 00:35:04,160
Speaker 2: situations and you rarely see road teams favored. And you

711
00:35:04,280 --> 00:35:08,600
Speaker 2: also rarely see you know, the public, you know, betting

712
00:35:09,239 --> 00:35:12,560
Speaker 2: heavily on road teams. You know, if if the public

713
00:35:12,600 --> 00:35:14,640
Speaker 2: is if the market goes one direction or the other,

714
00:35:15,080 --> 00:35:16,920
Speaker 2: more likely than not they're just going with the home

715
00:35:16,960 --> 00:35:18,840
Speaker 2: team and the favorite. And so when you have like

716
00:35:19,040 --> 00:35:23,080
Speaker 2: a contrarian, a road team, which is a team getting

717
00:35:23,320 --> 00:35:27,600
Speaker 2: fewer than thirty five percent of the bets, especially in

718
00:35:27,680 --> 00:35:29,960
Speaker 2: you know, most preseason matchups are gonna be you know,

719
00:35:30,080 --> 00:35:32,840
Speaker 2: these these these matchups that don't happen often in the

720
00:35:32,880 --> 00:35:35,040
Speaker 2: regular season, these interconference matchups.

721
00:35:35,480 --> 00:35:35,600
Speaker 1: Uh.

722
00:35:35,800 --> 00:35:40,000
Speaker 2: Those are seventy three percent against the spread since twenty ten,

723
00:35:40,719 --> 00:35:44,319
Speaker 2: fifty two, nineteen and three. Uh And and they're they're

724
00:35:44,400 --> 00:35:48,400
Speaker 2: winning by five point three points per game on average.

725
00:35:48,719 --> 00:35:51,000
Speaker 2: Over ninety percent of those road teams are underdogs. But

726
00:35:51,600 --> 00:35:53,239
Speaker 2: it's just one of those spots that it only it's

727
00:35:53,280 --> 00:35:53,919
Speaker 2: only gonna happen.

728
00:35:54,280 --> 00:35:54,960
Speaker 1: What's that about.

729
00:35:55,200 --> 00:35:59,160
Speaker 2: You know, maybe five to six times, four to seven

730
00:35:59,239 --> 00:36:02,120
Speaker 2: times per per preseason you find a spot like that.

731
00:36:02,280 --> 00:36:05,360
Speaker 1: But you can find a public betting information in the

732
00:36:05,480 --> 00:36:08,040
Speaker 1: action app. It is built into two action labs as well.

733
00:36:08,080 --> 00:36:10,959
Speaker 2: And sometimes just something as simple as is like looking

734
00:36:11,000 --> 00:36:13,400
Speaker 2: at the market and looking for those kind of spots

735
00:36:13,840 --> 00:36:16,480
Speaker 2: can give you an edge. And the same thing is

736
00:36:16,520 --> 00:36:20,880
Speaker 2: true of road teams that are underdogs, that that that

737
00:36:21,040 --> 00:36:23,399
Speaker 2: are coming off of postseason birth versus a home team

738
00:36:23,480 --> 00:36:25,960
Speaker 2: that that isn't you know a lot of times you

739
00:36:26,040 --> 00:36:28,279
Speaker 2: know that that that team just because they're at home,

740
00:36:28,320 --> 00:36:30,839
Speaker 2: and people assume that, you know, maybe a good team

741
00:36:31,080 --> 00:36:32,920
Speaker 2: is not going to play at starters and you know,

742
00:36:32,960 --> 00:36:36,319
Speaker 2: the younger the worst team is going you know, has

743
00:36:36,400 --> 00:36:39,160
Speaker 2: more younger guys and you had a better draft pick,

744
00:36:39,239 --> 00:36:41,279
Speaker 2: and they're at home. So you know, this is the

745
00:36:41,360 --> 00:36:43,399
Speaker 2: time when when that kind of you know team, even

746
00:36:43,440 --> 00:36:45,200
Speaker 2: though they're they be inferior in the regular season. A

747
00:36:45,200 --> 00:36:48,000
Speaker 2: lot of people are thinking, Okay, well, it's preseason, so

748
00:36:48,400 --> 00:36:50,279
Speaker 2: the good teams are are going to just take it easy.

749
00:36:50,360 --> 00:36:52,680
Speaker 1: But a lot of times underdogs in those.

750
00:36:52,560 --> 00:36:54,879
Speaker 2: Spots, you know, when they're coming off a playoff berth

751
00:36:54,960 --> 00:36:57,920
Speaker 2: and you wouldn't expect it. Those teams against non playoff

752
00:36:58,000 --> 00:37:01,200
Speaker 2: home favorites fifty eight percent and one nineteen eighty six

753
00:37:01,280 --> 00:37:03,719
Speaker 2: and nine against the spread since two thousand and five,

754
00:37:03,840 --> 00:37:07,000
Speaker 2: covering by nearly two points per game. So, uh, those

755
00:37:07,040 --> 00:37:10,560
Speaker 2: are just a couple of examples, you know, spread wise,

756
00:37:10,960 --> 00:37:14,600
Speaker 2: and then from a total perspective, I think the you know,

757
00:37:14,680 --> 00:37:19,719
Speaker 2: the median UH score for preseason and the average around

758
00:37:19,800 --> 00:37:22,120
Speaker 2: thirty seven to thirty eight points, and thirty seven has

759
00:37:22,120 --> 00:37:25,279
Speaker 2: been a key number in terms of totals betting for

760
00:37:25,360 --> 00:37:26,520
Speaker 2: the preseason.

761
00:37:26,080 --> 00:37:27,120
Speaker 1: Over the last decade.

762
00:37:27,680 --> 00:37:31,000
Speaker 2: Uh, when the total is higher than thirty seven, the

763
00:37:31,239 --> 00:37:34,399
Speaker 2: under is fifty nine percent to seventeen one fifty and nine.

764
00:37:35,280 --> 00:37:39,640
Speaker 1: But then when the total is under thirty seven.

765
00:37:39,680 --> 00:37:41,480
Speaker 2: So when it's when a total of thirty six and

766
00:37:41,520 --> 00:37:43,560
Speaker 2: a half or below, that's when.

767
00:37:43,440 --> 00:37:45,800
Speaker 1: You want to look more at the overs.

768
00:37:46,520 --> 00:37:49,120
Speaker 2: Overs of thirty six and a half are below are

769
00:37:49,200 --> 00:37:53,560
Speaker 2: at fifty seven percent since two thousand and six. Over

770
00:37:53,560 --> 00:37:58,920
Speaker 2: the last two decades, you know that they've been really profitable.

771
00:37:59,440 --> 00:38:01,759
Speaker 1: Uh, and you know so that that's kind of how

772
00:38:01,800 --> 00:38:02,560
Speaker 1: you look at the totals.

773
00:38:02,600 --> 00:38:05,040
Speaker 2: And then you know, another thing we have to talk

774
00:38:05,080 --> 00:38:08,439
Speaker 2: about before we look ahead to this Bears Texan Hall

775
00:38:08,440 --> 00:38:12,080
Speaker 2: of Fame game is the Baltimore Ravens. They finally did

776
00:38:12,239 --> 00:38:15,759
Speaker 2: lose another preseason game, but overall their record is just,

777
00:38:15,960 --> 00:38:18,520
Speaker 2: I mean, it's it's one of the craziest things I

778
00:38:18,600 --> 00:38:23,560
Speaker 2: think I've seen in sports. Since twenty sixteen, Baltimore is

779
00:38:23,640 --> 00:38:27,800
Speaker 2: twenty four and two straight up in the preseason ninety

780
00:38:27,840 --> 00:38:32,440
Speaker 2: two percent, and then against the spread nineteen six and

781
00:38:32,520 --> 00:38:35,600
Speaker 2: one seventy six percent, covering by eight point eight points

782
00:38:35,640 --> 00:38:40,200
Speaker 2: per game on average. Any thoughts just on the Ravens,

783
00:38:40,280 --> 00:38:43,480
Speaker 2: and you know, I know you kind of are very

784
00:38:43,560 --> 00:38:45,759
Speaker 2: good at kind of modeling and factoring in, you know,

785
00:38:46,160 --> 00:38:49,080
Speaker 2: and calculating odds and factoring in regression to the meat

786
00:38:49,120 --> 00:38:52,000
Speaker 2: and what's kind of randomness and what's not. Just how

787
00:38:52,040 --> 00:38:55,040
Speaker 2: do you how do you kind of handicap the Ravens?

788
00:38:55,320 --> 00:38:59,040
Speaker 2: You know, given such a streak like that is something?

789
00:38:59,160 --> 00:39:01,080
Speaker 2: Is that something you're kind of fading? Are you just

790
00:39:01,160 --> 00:39:04,120
Speaker 2: kind of riding riding it as long as it continues

791
00:39:04,160 --> 00:39:04,840
Speaker 2: to play out like that?

792
00:39:05,320 --> 00:39:08,440
Speaker 3: Yeah, well I wouldn't like plinally fade it or tail it,

793
00:39:09,160 --> 00:39:11,840
Speaker 3: just because I think now that the public is certainly

794
00:39:11,840 --> 00:39:15,200
Speaker 3: aware of it, so that their numbers might be inflated.

795
00:39:15,560 --> 00:39:18,319
Speaker 3: I think it could just be Harba's a good coach

796
00:39:18,480 --> 00:39:20,680
Speaker 3: and he keeps that going in preseason. Maybe he's doing

797
00:39:20,840 --> 00:39:23,520
Speaker 3: things to even win these games. But I think it's

798
00:39:24,040 --> 00:39:26,440
Speaker 3: there could be like something that I meant to bring

799
00:39:26,520 --> 00:39:32,680
Speaker 3: up earlier. But these like second third Street quarterbacks that

800
00:39:33,280 --> 00:39:36,920
Speaker 3: have rushing upside I think are more valuable in preseason

801
00:39:37,000 --> 00:39:39,279
Speaker 3: because you know, a lot of these guys they don't

802
00:39:39,320 --> 00:39:44,239
Speaker 3: have chemistry with like really subpar pass catchers and they're

803
00:39:44,280 --> 00:39:46,120
Speaker 3: not great quarterbacks, you know, throwing it, but if they

804
00:39:46,120 --> 00:39:48,279
Speaker 3: can pull it down and run, that does give you

805
00:39:48,600 --> 00:39:51,920
Speaker 3: an advantage in the preseason, especially with defenses you know,

806
00:39:52,120 --> 00:39:54,960
Speaker 3: just playing soft zone, not not really good defenders on

807
00:39:55,000 --> 00:39:58,480
Speaker 3: the field. I found that scrambling quarterbacks can have a

808
00:39:58,520 --> 00:40:00,560
Speaker 3: pretty big edge, and that's kind of what the Ravens do.

809
00:40:00,680 --> 00:40:05,200
Speaker 3: They usually have their backups are you know, rushing quarterbacks

810
00:40:05,239 --> 00:40:08,080
Speaker 3: because they're backing up Lamar Jackson, so you'll see Emery

811
00:40:08,200 --> 00:40:12,520
Speaker 3: Jones is a rookie, he's from Cincinnati, very good rushing quarterback,

812
00:40:12,600 --> 00:40:14,080
Speaker 3: so when he's in the game, he might not be,

813
00:40:14,280 --> 00:40:17,839
Speaker 3: you know, a great passer as you know, a raw rookie,

814
00:40:17,920 --> 00:40:19,239
Speaker 3: but he can run the ball. So I think that

815
00:40:19,320 --> 00:40:21,960
Speaker 3: that might be one of the reasons why the Ravens

816
00:40:22,840 --> 00:40:25,759
Speaker 3: have an edgend preseason. It's it's something that I handicapped

817
00:40:25,760 --> 00:40:28,000
Speaker 3: for other teams as well. Just if you if your

818
00:40:28,040 --> 00:40:31,279
Speaker 3: backups are good running the ball, that it helps in

819
00:40:31,400 --> 00:40:34,000
Speaker 3: the preseason. So that might be one of many reasons.

820
00:40:34,040 --> 00:40:36,200
Speaker 3: As the why this is could be just random luck,

821
00:40:36,239 --> 00:40:38,000
Speaker 3: but I think a lot of it's due to just

822
00:40:38,080 --> 00:40:41,920
Speaker 3: the coaching decisions in game and maybe they just have

823
00:40:42,480 --> 00:40:46,040
Speaker 3: really good depth. A lot of reasons but either way

824
00:40:46,239 --> 00:40:49,359
Speaker 3: like it. It's a big enough sample size, there's something

825
00:40:49,440 --> 00:40:49,960
Speaker 3: there for sure.

826
00:40:50,680 --> 00:40:52,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, Harbo has been the coach for the Ravens almost

827
00:40:53,200 --> 00:40:57,040
Speaker 2: two decades now and overall forty four and fourteen straight

828
00:40:57,120 --> 00:41:00,160
Speaker 2: up in the preseason seventy six thirty eight nineteen one

829
00:41:00,200 --> 00:41:03,480
Speaker 2: against the spread, sixty seven percent, covering by an average

830
00:41:03,480 --> 00:41:05,239
Speaker 2: of five point nine points per game.

831
00:41:05,880 --> 00:41:10,840
Speaker 1: Those numbers courtesy of bet Labs. And you know, I

832
00:41:10,960 --> 00:41:13,480
Speaker 1: do think it it is it is.

833
00:41:13,920 --> 00:41:16,640
Speaker 2: You know, something that we should have talked about earlier too,

834
00:41:16,760 --> 00:41:21,839
Speaker 2: is a lot of a lot of coaches are going

835
00:41:21,880 --> 00:41:26,880
Speaker 2: into these games. They are looking to see certain packages,

836
00:41:27,120 --> 00:41:31,120
Speaker 2: a certain plays, how they work, and not necessarily trying

837
00:41:31,160 --> 00:41:31,839
Speaker 2: to win the game.

838
00:41:32,120 --> 00:41:34,800
Speaker 1: Uh. And you kind of alluded to your kicking battles.

839
00:41:35,120 --> 00:41:37,440
Speaker 2: You know, if a team you know is going to

840
00:41:37,760 --> 00:41:40,000
Speaker 2: if a team might you know, have an active kicking

841
00:41:40,080 --> 00:41:42,560
Speaker 2: battle going on, I think that team is more likely

842
00:41:42,680 --> 00:41:45,760
Speaker 2: to settle for a field goal on four down instead

843
00:41:45,800 --> 00:41:47,880
Speaker 2: of going for it just to just to get it,

844
00:41:47,960 --> 00:41:51,880
Speaker 2: you know, another opportunity to kick, or you know, they

845
00:41:52,000 --> 00:41:55,200
Speaker 2: might go for more extra points instead of two point versions,

846
00:41:55,280 --> 00:41:58,320
Speaker 2: things like that. So, uh, but with the Ravens, for

847
00:41:58,440 --> 00:42:01,919
Speaker 2: better or worse. They seem to play each preseason game,

848
00:42:02,200 --> 00:42:04,320
Speaker 2: you know, under harbor to win. And that's that's just

849
00:42:04,400 --> 00:42:06,399
Speaker 2: something that not a lot of coaches are really doing,

850
00:42:06,560 --> 00:42:09,320
Speaker 2: especially as we get you know, as the regular season

851
00:42:09,480 --> 00:42:12,160
Speaker 2: grows in terms of games and and and you know,

852
00:42:12,280 --> 00:42:14,040
Speaker 2: these coaches are trying to keep their guys healthy.

853
00:42:15,320 --> 00:42:18,880
Speaker 1: It's just not really the norm. You know, it sounds crazy,

854
00:42:18,920 --> 00:42:19,839
Speaker 1: but it's not really the norm.

855
00:42:19,880 --> 00:42:21,880
Speaker 2: I think for a lot of these coaches to enter

856
00:42:21,960 --> 00:42:24,600
Speaker 2: these games trying to win the games, and I think

857
00:42:24,680 --> 00:42:26,400
Speaker 2: the Ravens generally do.

858
00:42:26,920 --> 00:42:29,360
Speaker 1: And then another thing with the Ravens is.

859
00:42:29,760 --> 00:42:32,520
Speaker 2: They're just the They've been a highly successful regular season

860
00:42:32,640 --> 00:42:36,040
Speaker 2: organization as well. And you know, just the roster building

861
00:42:36,360 --> 00:42:38,000
Speaker 2: and and the fact that I think the second and

862
00:42:38,080 --> 00:42:41,160
Speaker 2: third teams for the Baltimore Ravens, the second and third

863
00:42:41,200 --> 00:42:46,040
Speaker 2: string are generally just better than much of the other

864
00:42:46,480 --> 00:42:50,360
Speaker 2: NFL rosters out there. So, uh, those are things you

865
00:42:50,440 --> 00:42:53,160
Speaker 2: kind of pick up in terms of of you know,

866
00:42:53,320 --> 00:42:56,560
Speaker 2: just kind of following along. And but yeah, there's definitely

867
00:42:56,680 --> 00:42:58,560
Speaker 2: something to it, and it's I don't think it's it's

868
00:42:58,760 --> 00:43:01,040
Speaker 2: just there might be a little bit of luck, you know,

869
00:43:01,120 --> 00:43:04,720
Speaker 2: to go twenty four and two but there's definitely something

870
00:43:04,840 --> 00:43:09,040
Speaker 2: behind that, you know, so definitely something to continue to

871
00:43:09,080 --> 00:43:09,400
Speaker 2: watch for.

872
00:43:09,520 --> 00:43:11,880
Speaker 1: And that's always kind of the first thing I do,

873
00:43:12,120 --> 00:43:12,319
Speaker 1: you know.

874
00:43:12,360 --> 00:43:14,279
Speaker 2: For the we get when we get beyond the Hall

875
00:43:14,320 --> 00:43:15,719
Speaker 2: of Fame game is just all right, who are the

876
00:43:15,800 --> 00:43:16,680
Speaker 2: Ravens playing this week?

877
00:43:16,719 --> 00:43:20,040
Speaker 1: And is there anything stopping me from betting on the Ravens?

878
00:43:20,080 --> 00:43:22,600
Speaker 1: And then I kind of go from there, you know,

879
00:43:22,680 --> 00:43:26,839
Speaker 1: in terms of breaking down the rest of the preseason sleep.

880
00:43:27,040 --> 00:43:28,960
Speaker 3: Yeah, And then just real quick going back to her

881
00:43:30,120 --> 00:43:31,960
Speaker 3: over under the key number being thirty seven.

882
00:43:32,000 --> 00:43:33,080
Speaker 1: I thought that was a good point.

883
00:43:33,880 --> 00:43:36,000
Speaker 3: I'm usually dealing in quarters in half and when I'm

884
00:43:36,040 --> 00:43:37,960
Speaker 3: talking about like a first half or second half line,

885
00:43:38,280 --> 00:43:41,600
Speaker 3: I'm usually talking about seventeen and twenty being the key numbers.

886
00:43:41,600 --> 00:43:44,200
Speaker 3: So yeah, thirty seven it would make sense, But I'm

887
00:43:44,280 --> 00:43:48,080
Speaker 3: usually talking about wanting access to either of those numbers

888
00:43:48,120 --> 00:43:51,200
Speaker 3: with the over or under. But one thing that I

889
00:43:51,520 --> 00:43:54,960
Speaker 3: wanted to bring up and curious your thoughts is we're

890
00:43:55,000 --> 00:43:58,920
Speaker 3: going to be seeing this new kickoff rule introducing the

891
00:43:58,920 --> 00:44:01,800
Speaker 3: preseason right the first time we see this as the

892
00:44:01,840 --> 00:44:04,080
Speaker 3: Hall of Fame game. Do you think that that is

893
00:44:04,200 --> 00:44:08,920
Speaker 3: going to boost the scoring environment enough to matter especially

894
00:44:08,960 --> 00:44:10,920
Speaker 3: in the preseason, because that would be a special teams

895
00:44:10,960 --> 00:44:14,560
Speaker 3: play where you're not banking on you know, Brett Rippin

896
00:44:15,360 --> 00:44:17,000
Speaker 3: moving the team down the field. It could be just

897
00:44:17,080 --> 00:44:20,040
Speaker 3: a talented returner giving them good field position, or even

898
00:44:20,040 --> 00:44:22,160
Speaker 3: scoring a touchdown. Is this something that you think is

899
00:44:22,239 --> 00:44:24,879
Speaker 3: going to change scoring much at all to matter?

900
00:44:25,719 --> 00:44:27,040
Speaker 1: I think it could.

901
00:44:27,520 --> 00:44:29,520
Speaker 2: I think, I mean, it depends what you think of

902
00:44:29,680 --> 00:44:32,800
Speaker 2: as mattering, Like if you're if you're trying to you know,

903
00:44:33,440 --> 00:44:36,239
Speaker 2: model these games down to like project these games down

904
00:44:36,280 --> 00:44:39,120
Speaker 2: to like the you know, the half nearest half point

905
00:44:39,160 --> 00:44:40,080
Speaker 2: in tenth of a point.

906
00:44:40,680 --> 00:44:43,439
Speaker 1: So if you're a sports book, I think it it does.

907
00:44:43,560 --> 00:44:46,120
Speaker 2: Overall, I think it's probably it's only gonna probably be

908
00:44:46,160 --> 00:44:49,239
Speaker 2: you know, a couple of tenths of a point either way,

909
00:44:49,480 --> 00:44:52,120
Speaker 2: but it definitely will factor. And I think it's also

910
00:44:52,200 --> 00:44:55,000
Speaker 2: important for you know, you know, when when it comes

911
00:44:55,040 --> 00:44:57,560
Speaker 2: to now the regular season, and you know, a lot

912
00:44:57,640 --> 00:44:58,960
Speaker 2: of what we do when.

913
00:44:58,840 --> 00:45:00,960
Speaker 1: We model these games, and you know, as the.

914
00:45:00,960 --> 00:45:04,040
Speaker 2: Sportsbooks are doing the same thing, is you know you're

915
00:45:04,080 --> 00:45:07,160
Speaker 2: you're projecting you know, scores and spreads and totals. Well

916
00:45:07,200 --> 00:45:09,960
Speaker 2: you need some baselines, you need some league averages, and

917
00:45:10,120 --> 00:45:13,080
Speaker 2: so you know, if the weak average points you know,

918
00:45:13,480 --> 00:45:16,880
Speaker 2: increases because of this new kickoff, that's something we have

919
00:45:16,960 --> 00:45:19,200
Speaker 2: to keep, you know, kind of take into account, you know,

920
00:45:19,360 --> 00:45:22,560
Speaker 2: whether you know, okay, well now it you know, does

921
00:45:22,719 --> 00:45:26,120
Speaker 2: the average total maybe pick up a half.

922
00:45:26,040 --> 00:45:28,000
Speaker 1: Point or something like that due to due to this.

923
00:45:28,120 --> 00:45:30,719
Speaker 2: That's just something that you know, we It's still going

924
00:45:30,760 --> 00:45:33,120
Speaker 2: to be a small sample size in the preseason, but

925
00:45:33,320 --> 00:45:35,520
Speaker 2: it will be kind of our first look at, you know,

926
00:45:35,640 --> 00:45:39,200
Speaker 2: more generally, Howard impacts the game. You know how teams

927
00:45:39,200 --> 00:45:42,120
Speaker 2: are approaching it. You know, it isn't gonna lead to

928
00:45:42,160 --> 00:45:44,640
Speaker 2: an uptick of kicker injuries for example. You know, that's

929
00:45:44,640 --> 00:45:47,960
Speaker 2: something I think you know teams are thinking about because

930
00:45:48,840 --> 00:45:50,440
Speaker 2: you know you're gonna have to tackle more on these

931
00:45:50,480 --> 00:45:53,720
Speaker 2: plays now. So, uh, it's that that is something specific

932
00:45:53,760 --> 00:45:55,200
Speaker 2: to twenty twenty four, and I do think it will

933
00:45:55,239 --> 00:45:56,400
Speaker 2: have an impact.

934
00:45:57,160 --> 00:45:59,000
Speaker 1: I don't. I think it will also be talked about

935
00:45:59,000 --> 00:45:59,239
Speaker 1: a lot.

936
00:46:00,120 --> 00:46:03,520
Speaker 2: So I think it's something where you know, maybe the

937
00:46:03,640 --> 00:46:06,120
Speaker 2: market factors didn't too much. If like let's say in

938
00:46:06,200 --> 00:46:08,400
Speaker 2: Week one of the preseason, you know, there's two or

939
00:46:08,480 --> 00:46:12,600
Speaker 2: three big plays or you know, touchdowns, even it might

940
00:46:12,640 --> 00:46:14,600
Speaker 2: be over inflated, then there might just be an edge

941
00:46:14,640 --> 00:46:17,359
Speaker 2: on betting unders, you know, in teams that have good

942
00:46:17,400 --> 00:46:20,440
Speaker 2: returns or that had a kickoff return for a touchdown

943
00:46:20,560 --> 00:46:21,359
Speaker 2: in the prior week.

944
00:46:21,480 --> 00:46:23,600
Speaker 1: So there's a lot of different ways.

945
00:46:24,000 --> 00:46:27,399
Speaker 2: I think we might potentially get insight that can help

946
00:46:27,480 --> 00:46:30,319
Speaker 2: us bet in the preseason and the regular season from

947
00:46:30,400 --> 00:46:34,640
Speaker 2: kind of just looking and you know, observing how that

948
00:46:35,640 --> 00:46:38,760
Speaker 2: the new kickoff rule plays out. The Action Network podcast

949
00:46:38,920 --> 00:46:42,440
Speaker 2: is presented by Bett MGM. Used bonus code Action when

950
00:46:42,480 --> 00:46:44,719
Speaker 2: signing up to get up to fifteen hundred hours back

951
00:46:44,760 --> 00:46:47,279
Speaker 2: in bonus bets if your first bet does not win.

952
00:46:47,640 --> 00:46:54,760
Speaker 2: For new users in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts,

953
00:46:54,920 --> 00:46:59,279
Speaker 2: Michigan and New Jersey and North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee.

954
00:46:58,960 --> 00:47:03,120
Speaker 1: At Virginia, West Virginia, and Wyoming. Terms and conditions apply.

955
00:47:03,320 --> 00:47:05,759
Speaker 2: Must be twenty one or older again with problem call

956
00:47:06,160 --> 00:47:10,880
Speaker 2: one eight hundred gambler. All right, So I want to

957
00:47:10,920 --> 00:47:14,120
Speaker 2: close it out here mention the Hall of Fame game

958
00:47:15,360 --> 00:47:18,480
Speaker 2: Texans at the Bears. You know, you could see why

959
00:47:18,600 --> 00:47:23,040
Speaker 2: they schedule that two of the most exciting teams in

960
00:47:23,160 --> 00:47:26,239
Speaker 2: terms of in terms of their wide receiving Cord and

961
00:47:26,360 --> 00:47:32,120
Speaker 2: you know, two talented young quarterbacks. Any thoughts as we

962
00:47:32,200 --> 00:47:35,600
Speaker 2: look ahead, anything you're kind of looking out for Eddie

963
00:47:35,600 --> 00:47:38,880
Speaker 2: handicaps I'll have I'll have a write up on Action

964
00:47:38,960 --> 00:47:41,360
Speaker 2: network dot Com next week ahead of that game, but

965
00:47:41,440 --> 00:47:42,799
Speaker 2: with just anything that kind of catches ry.

966
00:47:42,840 --> 00:47:45,040
Speaker 1: Anything you're gonna be looking for for that Hall of

967
00:47:45,120 --> 00:47:47,800
Speaker 1: Fame game, Yeah, yeah, I'll probably have something.

968
00:47:47,880 --> 00:47:50,879
Speaker 3: I'm already kind of making my QB charts for that game,

969
00:47:50,920 --> 00:47:54,120
Speaker 3: but it's definitely too early to be locking anything. And

970
00:47:54,880 --> 00:47:58,640
Speaker 3: on the Texan side, I'm just I'm almost certain we

971
00:47:58,719 --> 00:48:02,040
Speaker 3: won't see c. J. Stroud or most of the Texans,

972
00:48:02,200 --> 00:48:04,880
Speaker 3: you know, like key starters playing that game. You know,

973
00:48:04,920 --> 00:48:06,560
Speaker 3: the Hall of Fame game is an extra games, so

974
00:48:06,680 --> 00:48:10,560
Speaker 3: we just rarely see players with nothing to prove playing

975
00:48:10,640 --> 00:48:13,800
Speaker 3: that game. It's really a game to evaluate, you know,

976
00:48:13,840 --> 00:48:16,799
Speaker 3: the bottom of the depth chart. I'm interested to see

977
00:48:16,880 --> 00:48:19,279
Speaker 3: if if we see Caleb Williams. I'm assuming we won't,

978
00:48:19,400 --> 00:48:22,600
Speaker 3: but you know, series or two from a rookie like

979
00:48:22,719 --> 00:48:24,040
Speaker 3: him wouldn't be too surprising.

980
00:48:24,120 --> 00:48:26,200
Speaker 1: That would be fun to see, you know.

981
00:48:26,280 --> 00:48:29,320
Speaker 3: I think early in the game, the Texans might have

982
00:48:29,440 --> 00:48:32,600
Speaker 3: the edge with Davis Mills and case Keenum. Say what

983
00:48:32,760 --> 00:48:34,960
Speaker 3: you will about those guys, but they're like, you know,

984
00:48:35,080 --> 00:48:38,560
Speaker 3: league average backups. They tend to play pretty well in preseason.

985
00:48:38,640 --> 00:48:42,440
Speaker 3: But I think the Texans wide receiver depth chart is solid,

986
00:48:42,560 --> 00:48:44,880
Speaker 3: so they're going to be thrown to guys like John Mitchi,

987
00:48:45,400 --> 00:48:48,480
Speaker 3: Zavier Hutchinson, who could start, you know, for other teams.

988
00:48:49,400 --> 00:48:51,479
Speaker 3: It wouldn't shock me if a guy like Hutchinson leads

989
00:48:51,520 --> 00:48:54,279
Speaker 3: this game in receiving yards, whereas the Bears, you know

990
00:48:54,280 --> 00:48:58,080
Speaker 3: they're gonna be using Tyson Bagent Brett Rippin under center.

991
00:48:58,360 --> 00:49:00,400
Speaker 3: I think Brett Rippon is just awful. He's one of

992
00:49:00,440 --> 00:49:03,040
Speaker 3: the worst quarterbacks year and year out in the preseason.

993
00:49:03,160 --> 00:49:05,600
Speaker 3: So I think the Texans might have an edge in

994
00:49:05,680 --> 00:49:08,359
Speaker 3: the first half when those quarterbacks are bailing it up.

995
00:49:08,360 --> 00:49:11,799
Speaker 3: Where you know, the fourth quarter might be Austin Reid

996
00:49:11,880 --> 00:49:15,680
Speaker 3: for the Bears and Tim Boyle for the Texans. So

997
00:49:15,840 --> 00:49:17,960
Speaker 3: I might be locking in the Bears there if they're

998
00:49:17,960 --> 00:49:21,200
Speaker 3: getting any points. I've been talking about the gen deep dies.

999
00:49:21,239 --> 00:49:24,600
Speaker 3: I've been watching some Austin Reid film already. Kind of

1000
00:49:24,640 --> 00:49:27,120
Speaker 3: reminds me of like a dollar store Tom Brady. He

1001
00:49:27,239 --> 00:49:30,719
Speaker 3: has great poise, handles pressure really well. He had the

1002
00:49:30,920 --> 00:49:35,279
Speaker 3: third lowest pressure rate to sack rate in all of

1003
00:49:35,320 --> 00:49:37,919
Speaker 3: college football last year, so I think that could bode

1004
00:49:37,920 --> 00:49:40,240
Speaker 3: well in preseason. He doesn't have a great arm, doesn't

1005
00:49:40,239 --> 00:49:42,239
Speaker 3: have good touch on his past, but I think he

1006
00:49:42,440 --> 00:49:45,000
Speaker 3: is potentially better than Tim Boyle, who's one of the

1007
00:49:45,040 --> 00:49:47,840
Speaker 3: worst quarterbacks in the NFL. So that's kind of how

1008
00:49:47,840 --> 00:49:50,000
Speaker 3: I'm thinking about the game will play out and kind

1009
00:49:50,040 --> 00:49:53,239
Speaker 3: of how I'm attack it is possibly Texans first half,

1010
00:49:53,680 --> 00:49:56,640
Speaker 3: possibly taking the Bears in the fourth quarter, but still

1011
00:49:56,719 --> 00:49:58,880
Speaker 3: plenty of time to kind of hear, you know, the

1012
00:49:58,960 --> 00:50:01,160
Speaker 3: coach beak and get a better sense on, you know,

1013
00:50:01,200 --> 00:50:04,359
Speaker 3: how this quarterback rotation and who's actually playing this game

1014
00:50:04,600 --> 00:50:05,200
Speaker 3: come next week.

1015
00:50:06,520 --> 00:50:06,719
Speaker 1: Yeah.

1016
00:50:06,719 --> 00:50:09,640
Speaker 2: And you know, I haven't seen a total yet, and

1017
00:50:10,080 --> 00:50:12,960
Speaker 2: you kind of hit on some of the the quarterbacks.

1018
00:50:12,960 --> 00:50:15,840
Speaker 2: But I think just because you know the general public,

1019
00:50:15,880 --> 00:50:17,920
Speaker 2: you know, you think of these two t's, you think, okay,

1020
00:50:18,120 --> 00:50:20,920
Speaker 2: you know, great young quarterbacks, talented receiving corps.

1021
00:50:21,360 --> 00:50:24,680
Speaker 1: I wonder if the total will open a tick too.

1022
00:50:24,680 --> 00:50:28,960
Speaker 3: High two and a half. I think that's okay, thirty three.

1023
00:50:29,880 --> 00:50:32,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, So, because the Hall of Fame games usually are

1024
00:50:32,480 --> 00:50:34,600
Speaker 2: the you know, because it's the first preseason game you

1025
00:50:34,719 --> 00:50:37,320
Speaker 2: usually see, you know, even lower totals. But that that

1026
00:50:37,400 --> 00:50:41,279
Speaker 2: sounds about right, you know, assuming none of those guys play. Uh,

1027
00:50:41,440 --> 00:50:44,440
Speaker 2: and then the line I've seen you know, and again

1028
00:50:44,600 --> 00:50:46,560
Speaker 2: you know this will be updated and could change, but

1029
00:50:46,719 --> 00:50:48,840
Speaker 2: I've seen it like Houston one and a half or

1030
00:50:48,880 --> 00:50:52,000
Speaker 2: so that what you've seen plus one and a half. Yeah,

1031
00:50:52,080 --> 00:50:55,560
Speaker 2: so that would you know that you do expect a close,

1032
00:50:55,640 --> 00:50:58,920
Speaker 2: low scoring game in these kind of games, you know,

1033
00:50:58,960 --> 00:50:59,960
Speaker 2: there's not much separation.

1034
00:51:00,760 --> 00:51:03,880
Speaker 1: But that that trend, uh, that I spoke about earlier.

1035
00:51:03,920 --> 00:51:07,320
Speaker 2: You know, when you have a spread that opens inside

1036
00:51:07,360 --> 00:51:10,399
Speaker 2: of three, you have an underdog that that's a very

1037
00:51:10,480 --> 00:51:14,560
Speaker 2: short underdog. A lot of times that can be a tell. So, uh,

1038
00:51:14,719 --> 00:51:17,040
Speaker 2: you know that that's a sixty three percent trend.

1039
00:51:17,120 --> 00:51:17,239
Speaker 1: You know.

1040
00:51:17,719 --> 00:51:20,120
Speaker 2: One of the things, too, is just the thing about

1041
00:51:20,120 --> 00:51:22,239
Speaker 2: the preseason is even you know, as we sit here

1042
00:51:22,280 --> 00:51:25,480
Speaker 2: and record an hour long preseason pot I should say

1043
00:51:25,520 --> 00:51:27,640
Speaker 2: that I think one of the things we know is

1044
00:51:27,680 --> 00:51:29,680
Speaker 2: that we don't know anything, you know, in the in

1045
00:51:30,080 --> 00:51:32,319
Speaker 2: the sense of, uh, you know, we can we can

1046
00:51:32,400 --> 00:51:35,080
Speaker 2: pour our over film of you know, fifth string quarterbacks

1047
00:51:35,120 --> 00:51:38,200
Speaker 2: and and whatnot, but they're just there's gonna be so

1048
00:51:38,360 --> 00:51:41,479
Speaker 2: much more randomness in variance than even the regular season,

1049
00:51:41,520 --> 00:51:44,160
Speaker 2: because you're talking about, you know, a lot of guys

1050
00:51:44,200 --> 00:51:47,120
Speaker 2: that will never see an NFL field, I know, at

1051
00:51:47,160 --> 00:51:49,680
Speaker 2: the at the O line positions and the secondaries and

1052
00:51:50,000 --> 00:51:51,960
Speaker 2: and whatnot. That's you know, that's why you you said

1053
00:51:52,000 --> 00:51:54,040
Speaker 2: you like to look for quarterbacks who can run. That

1054
00:51:54,120 --> 00:51:55,920
Speaker 2: could something as simple as that could be a big

1055
00:51:56,040 --> 00:51:58,680
Speaker 2: edge when when nobody's open or when they're just confused,

1056
00:51:59,080 --> 00:52:01,160
Speaker 2: uh and they don't know that played maybe all that well,

1057
00:52:01,239 --> 00:52:03,560
Speaker 2: or a scheme all that well. So there's a lot

1058
00:52:03,560 --> 00:52:06,160
Speaker 2: of kind of understanding that there's a lot of uncertainty

1059
00:52:06,160 --> 00:52:06,760
Speaker 2: and randomness.

1060
00:52:07,239 --> 00:52:11,279
Speaker 1: Just getting points, uh, you know, is is valuable in

1061
00:52:11,360 --> 00:52:11,920
Speaker 1: the preseason.

1062
00:52:12,040 --> 00:52:14,520
Speaker 2: So it's kind of like the regular season in the

1063
00:52:14,600 --> 00:52:18,080
Speaker 2: sense that you're gonna be more profitable over the long term.

1064
00:52:18,200 --> 00:52:21,600
Speaker 2: I think betting underdogs in the preseason, betting unders in

1065
00:52:21,680 --> 00:52:24,480
Speaker 2: the preseason. So a lot of times if you you

1066
00:52:24,520 --> 00:52:27,200
Speaker 2: know people that if you once you start really digging

1067
00:52:27,239 --> 00:52:30,600
Speaker 2: into things, uh, and there's maybe you know, players are

1068
00:52:30,600 --> 00:52:33,160
Speaker 2: more familiar with it, and you really like certain guys,

1069
00:52:33,800 --> 00:52:35,680
Speaker 2: it kind of might lead you to you know, bet

1070
00:52:35,800 --> 00:52:38,360
Speaker 2: more overs or more favorites because you're like, oh, I

1071
00:52:38,520 --> 00:52:39,040
Speaker 2: like this guy.

1072
00:52:39,120 --> 00:52:40,440
Speaker 1: I think he's a good quarterback right now.

1073
00:52:40,480 --> 00:52:45,719
Speaker 2: But it's still the normal betting kind of rules of

1074
00:52:45,840 --> 00:52:49,160
Speaker 2: markets apply, which is, you know, the the books are

1075
00:52:49,200 --> 00:52:52,840
Speaker 2: usually taking more money on the overs on the favorites.

1076
00:52:53,000 --> 00:52:55,640
Speaker 2: They're usually shading the lines or moving the lines in

1077
00:52:55,719 --> 00:52:56,440
Speaker 2: that direction.

1078
00:52:56,280 --> 00:52:56,719
Speaker 1: Because of that.

1079
00:52:57,520 --> 00:53:00,360
Speaker 2: So you are more often than not, this is just

1080
00:53:00,480 --> 00:53:04,360
Speaker 2: generally speaking, gonna see more value, uh, you know, in

1081
00:53:04,440 --> 00:53:08,120
Speaker 2: being contrarian looking at underdogs looking at unders which is

1082
00:53:08,200 --> 00:53:11,520
Speaker 2: the same way I think you end up uh maintaining

1083
00:53:11,600 --> 00:53:15,040
Speaker 2: long term profitability in the regular season betting on the NFL.

1084
00:53:16,760 --> 00:53:20,320
Speaker 1: All right, Uh mentioned you know for the Hall of

1085
00:53:20,400 --> 00:53:23,120
Speaker 1: Fame game, Uh, we'll both probably.

1086
00:53:23,080 --> 00:53:26,600
Speaker 2: Have something written up actionetwork dot com for that and also,

1087
00:53:27,200 --> 00:53:30,239
Speaker 2: uh you could just find it in the Action app

1088
00:53:31,080 --> 00:53:34,960
Speaker 2: as well, so be on the lookout for that.

1089
00:53:35,560 --> 00:53:36,880
Speaker 1: And that's gonna wrap it up here.

1090
00:53:36,920 --> 00:53:41,080
Speaker 2: So hopefully, if you're listening and kind of excited to

1091
00:53:41,120 --> 00:53:45,040
Speaker 2: get into some some NFL action after the layoff, this

1092
00:53:45,200 --> 00:53:47,320
Speaker 2: kind of scratched that itch and maybe gave you some

1093
00:53:47,520 --> 00:53:51,960
Speaker 2: some ideas or some starting points uh for becoming a

1094
00:53:52,040 --> 00:53:55,719
Speaker 2: more frequent, more profitable preseason better so uh this was

1095
00:53:55,960 --> 00:53:58,239
Speaker 2: this was a good one, Sean, always enjoy it and

1096
00:53:58,560 --> 00:54:00,799
Speaker 2: uh we'll be back next time.

1097
00:54:01,000 --> 00:54:04,240
Speaker 1: But you can follow Sean on next at the Underscarage Maker.

1098
00:54:04,280 --> 00:54:06,680
Speaker 2: I'm at Chris Raybond and of course we got those

1099
00:54:06,680 --> 00:54:10,640
Speaker 2: same handles on the free award winning Action Network app.

1100
00:54:11,080 --> 00:54:15,520
Speaker 2: Until next time, Let's Get this Money is to be

1101
00:54:15,640 --> 00:54:17,239
Speaker 2: Action Network podcast.

1102
00:54:17,719 --> 00:54:38,240
Speaker 1: Done it like that? MGM. Action Network reminds you please

1103
00:54:38,320 --> 00:54:41,719
Speaker 1: gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care about has

1104
00:54:41,719 --> 00:54:44,800
Speaker 1: a gambling problem, help is available twenty four to seven

1105
00:54:45,040 --> 00:54:46,400
Speaker 1: at one eight hundred Gambler