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Speaker 1: Yeah. Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene

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Speaker 1: Jay Lee. We bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment,

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Speaker 1: and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud,

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot Com, and of course, on the Bloomberg Want

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Speaker 1: to us here in New York City. A special good

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Speaker 1: morning for Brian Levitt Oppenheimer Funds is senior investment strategist.

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Speaker 1: How you doing, Brian, I'm good, good morning. Is this

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Speaker 1: a scenario I've heard so many people debating that in

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Speaker 1: the market over the last couple of days. I think

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Speaker 1: it does have some similarities to seen if we remember

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Speaker 1: the beginning of the idea was that the US was

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Speaker 1: decoupling from the rest of the world. The Federal Reserve

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Speaker 1: was going to proceed with a number of interest rate

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Speaker 1: hikes that strengthen the dollar, that sucked money out of

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Speaker 1: the emerging economies, and ultimately what how up in Jonathan

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Speaker 1: was the Federal Reserve essentially said, okay, just kidding, right,

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Speaker 1: they backed off the dollars, stabilized, commodity prices stabilized. Now

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Speaker 1: what's different than then then? Now? Was you also had

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Speaker 1: Chinese stimulus about to come on board in a significant way.

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Speaker 1: I don't think we're gonna see the Buzuka Chinese stimulus,

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Speaker 1: but you'll see a drip strategy and and that should

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Speaker 1: stabilize growth globally as the U S slows. And this

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Speaker 1: for me is the big point. So we had a

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Speaker 1: growth scamp in early seen it was very much made

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Speaker 1: in China. Then the European Central Bank through the Kitchen

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Speaker 1: sick sink at it, the Federal Reserve backed away, and

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Speaker 1: the Chinese pumped a load of credit into the system. Right,

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Speaker 1: does the e C be in the Federal Reserve have

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Speaker 1: the same game plan? Do they have the capacity to

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Speaker 1: do the same thing? Again, most people are gonna say no, Well,

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Speaker 1: the Feds certainly, the European Central Bank definitely does. The

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Speaker 1: Federal Reserve does um. You know, even though it's a

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Speaker 1: tight labor market and you look at the Phillips curve,

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Speaker 1: it's still basically as flat as the table that we're

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Speaker 1: sitting at, So you don't see the wage inflation. Sure,

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Speaker 1: wages are up some, but in a healthy way. Core

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Speaker 1: personal consumption expenditure just got to two percent. It's there's

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Speaker 1: nothing worrisome about the inflation backdrop. So so long as

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Speaker 1: the dollar remains persistently strong and the yield curve relatively flattish,

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Speaker 1: the Federal Reserve can certainly back off, and I suspect

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Speaker 1: they will. Let's talk about what's happening right now that

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Speaker 1: will spark the interest of the Federal Reserve to the

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Speaker 1: degree that they back away. What is happening in the

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Speaker 1: market right now, that's going to be of the most

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Speaker 1: concerned to them. I think what the biggest concern to

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Speaker 1: them is what's going on in the housing sector. And so,

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Speaker 1: you know, what we're finding out in case people were wondering,

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Speaker 1: is the US still an interest rate sensitive economy? We

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Speaker 1: are still an interest rate sensitive economy. So when rates

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Speaker 1: go up to you know, three twenty, the economy slows.

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Speaker 1: That was always the risk of late cycle stimulus, this

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Speaker 1: idea that the United States is decoupling from the rest

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Speaker 1: of the world. There was the belief. I never believed that,

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Speaker 1: but the US was going to go to a new,

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Speaker 1: higher sustained level of growth. It's not true. What it's

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Speaker 1: done is it brought rates higher. That's slowing the economy,

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Speaker 1: and the US is moving back towards trend And and

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Speaker 1: the FED can back off in that Brian Levit, John

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Speaker 1: Fair and I really try, and we fail. I fail

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Speaker 1: more than John John's perfect, but we fail in avoiding

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Speaker 1: the hysteria of the moment. I'm not seeing the hysteria

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Speaker 1: that's with Catharsis or true correction or true bear market.

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Speaker 1: But I'm thunderstruck by some of the headlines saying two

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Speaker 1: thousand and eighteen was a horrific equity year. If you

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Speaker 1: have double digit returns x years in a row, you

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Speaker 1: gotta go single digit at some point, right right, and

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Speaker 1: and right now. What you're seeing is what NASDAC up

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Speaker 1: a percent, SMP five hundred up three percent. So it's

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Speaker 1: not a disastrous year. It's a tough October and a

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Speaker 1: tough November. Through all the hysteria, investors really need to

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Speaker 1: think about what their goals are and what their time

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Speaker 1: horizons are. We can look back over very long periods

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Speaker 1: of times and show that over any ten year period,

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Speaker 1: stocks are positive of the time over any one year

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Speaker 1: period at the time. So you know, investors are always

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Speaker 1: trying to get the next trade, get the next data point, right. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: we need to pay attention to the cycle. Yeah, we

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Speaker 1: need to pay attention to policy. But for long term investors,

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Speaker 1: they need to see through this and look at these

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Speaker 1: moves as buying opportunities because to me and John and

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Speaker 1: I think this is really important. Corrections are normal, at

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Speaker 1: least that's what the textbooks say. And I would say, Brian,

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Speaker 1: we've moved on from that. Well, we've had directions or

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Speaker 1: a media event. I mean, we've had a greater than

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Speaker 1: five percent correction in every year but two in the

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Speaker 1: last four years. Someone guys that, but it's very very rare,

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Speaker 1: and for what the SMP five I believe is now

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Speaker 1: down on the year. It is very very rare to

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Speaker 1: have a market cross asset which has delivered negative returns

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Speaker 1: across pretty much every single asset class within the equity market,

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Speaker 1: to have a couple of corrections within a single year,

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Speaker 1: and on top of that, have a g d P

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Speaker 1: print with a three handle, with a full handle without

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Speaker 1: a real deceleration in US growth. We have had all

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Speaker 1: those things. Credits disappointed softeigns have had equities have had

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Speaker 1: negative returns. There's something going on here. Thank So he's

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Speaker 1: like he's like filming like four properties today. Are you

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Speaker 1: gonna do equities on the real yield. No. We we

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Speaker 1: recorded really yesterday for the did you for the show

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Speaker 1: to play out through the weekend and through the holiday.

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Speaker 1: I think what you're describing, Jonathan, is an environment where

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Speaker 1: policy uncertainty is creating a lot of market volatility, and

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Speaker 1: that's that's what tends to happen. I mean, it's been

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Speaker 1: a prolonged period for companies that's been about this increase

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Speaker 1: in profit margins. And when we start to talk about

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Speaker 1: tariffs and we start to get tighter on trade policy,

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Speaker 1: you have to be concerned about where growth goes and

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Speaker 1: what that means for profit margins. Now you hear from

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Speaker 1: those who are inside the Trump at Minute station or

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Speaker 1: of contacts within the Trump administration who say Trump wants

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Speaker 1: a deal, Cudlow wants a deal. We shall see UM.

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Speaker 1: I suspect that that Trump doesn't want a a very

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Speaker 1: weak UM equity market in the year leading up to

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Speaker 1: the elections. How does Oppenheimer Funds express Asia investment? I mean,

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Speaker 1: short of you know, buying shang send what how do

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Speaker 1: you pronounce? I think is what you wanted to say,

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Speaker 1: but you're about to say something a whole Oh look,

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Speaker 1: an email from mail from New Jersey. Uh No, But seriously, Brian,

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Speaker 1: how do you express Asia investment in a rational and

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Speaker 1: intelligent way? Right now? I think Al's my neighbor actually

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Speaker 1: in New Jersey. Really, I think he is interesting. You know,

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Speaker 1: we're excited about UM over the long term. The Chinese

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Speaker 1: consumer it is UM. You know, we talked about seventy

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Speaker 1: eighty millennials in the United States. There's four hundred and

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Speaker 1: fifteen millennials, four fifteen million millennials in China. The labor

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Speaker 1: forces over seven hundred and fifty million people, and the

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Speaker 1: consumption patterns are likely to continue to be strong. So

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Speaker 1: you know, I think that investors need to be selective

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Speaker 1: within UM. Investing in Asia needs to be a bottom

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Speaker 1: up process. But that consumer growth story, that growing middle class,

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Speaker 1: does not change the The expectation is a hundred and

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Speaker 1: sixty million new people will be added to the middle

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Speaker 1: class in Asia over the next fifteen years. Let me

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Speaker 1: bring in uh someone And I was so happy to

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Speaker 1: see her appointment. After Catherine man at O E c

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Speaker 1: D with Marylynch years ago, it was must read John

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Speaker 1: on the synthesis of politics and economics and France, and

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Speaker 1: you only did that with Laurence Boon and it was

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Speaker 1: just I told I know Guria when I saw him

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Speaker 1: that this was just an inspired selection to take over

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Speaker 1: this really important report. What's great about it is there's

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Speaker 1: not a lot of chit chat. O E c D

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Speaker 1: gets right to the point when they talk about the slowdown.

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Speaker 1: They see there's a headline, so let's talk about the slowdown.

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Speaker 1: They see Lawrence Boon joining us now O e c

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Speaker 1: D Chief Economists. Good morning, You've been great to have

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Speaker 1: you with us on the program. Good morning to you too,

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Speaker 1: and thanks for the fantastic intradiction. Tom is like that.

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Speaker 1: He's very kind, especially ahead of Thanksgiving, which only because

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Speaker 1: of Thanksgiving, Lawrence, Thanksgiving as an American holiday, which is

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Speaker 1: the beginning of our separation from the mother country. That's

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Speaker 1: where the French just you letting me know that, isn't it. Yes,

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Speaker 1: So the French build us out like fifteen times along

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Speaker 1: the way. So let's talk about it, Lawrence. What is

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Speaker 1: happening not with that, but with the global economy. Are

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Speaker 1: we seeing a growth scare because some people in the

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Speaker 1: market think we are. What do you see right now? Well,

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Speaker 1: we are seeing both effectively slowing down, and it's slowing

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Speaker 1: down primarily because tradees are being hurted by all the

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Speaker 1: tentions that are going on. If you if you look

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Speaker 1: at it, just let me give you one number. Last year,

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Speaker 1: you know, container port traffic, which is about eighty percent

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Speaker 1: of the global trade, was growing at six percent. Now

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Speaker 1: it's down to two percent. And to give you an image,

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Speaker 1: if we were still growing as fast as last year,

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Speaker 1: we would have twenty five million more container navigating on

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Speaker 1: the seas. That's a big, big number, Lawrence. So what

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Speaker 1: does it tell us that we've seen a deceleration from

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Speaker 1: last year and lost momentum or entering a cyclical downturn.

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Speaker 1: We are seeing a significant deterioration for last year. The

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Speaker 1: message we have is, you know, things are slowing down.

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Speaker 1: Growth has peaked, and it's always difficult to challenge to

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Speaker 1: navigate to two engineers areas soft lending. When when you

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Speaker 1: have such two attention, it's even more difficult. So what

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Speaker 1: we're saying is, you know, we need to fix this

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Speaker 1: trade issue, and then looking ahead, we need to be

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Speaker 1: really to address a shoppers throw down if if it

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Speaker 1: was to happen. Laurent is one of the differences in

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Speaker 1: your economics is your econometrics out of writing your dynamics.

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Speaker 1: Your mathematical dynamics have always been world class. Within that is,

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Speaker 1: how does currency fit into this? Because the release veil

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Speaker 1: for this can be that we're in a hugely floating

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Speaker 1: fixed floating currency environment and that can help us with

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Speaker 1: these pressures. Can the dollar in the euro in the end,

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Speaker 1: can their dynamics come to the rescue of a global slowdown? Well,

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Speaker 1: I'm not sure actually they can, because as you know,

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Speaker 1: monetary policy in the US is normalizing ahead of other

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Speaker 1: advanced economies. You up well like behind and appropriately so.

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Speaker 1: And we are seeing outflows from emerging economies going back

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Speaker 1: toward the US as the US is raising rights. So

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Speaker 1: I think it will not be every balancing engine. So

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Speaker 1: I get into work a little bit later than Tom King,

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Speaker 1: and Tom doesn't like that. But when I came down

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Speaker 1: the escalator this morning, I saw Lawrence on with you, Tom,

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Speaker 1: and there was a headline and it said the O E.

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Speaker 1: C D says something along the lines to get ready

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Speaker 1: for some fiscal stimulus to respond to a growth slow down.

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Speaker 1: And Alas, I thought that was really interesting because right

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Speaker 1: now the Italians are in a battle with the European

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Speaker 1: Commission to introduce some fiscal stimulus. What is the O

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Speaker 1: c D stand on that battle as it currently plays out, Well,

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Speaker 1: the O E c D doesn't do one size fifth

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Speaker 1: of all policies and them And there are two things

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Speaker 1: in what you're saying. The first one is the physical

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Speaker 1: stimulus that we're calling for is if it thinks we're

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Speaker 1: to worsen more than what we have in our central scenario.

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Speaker 1: You know, in two thousand nine, central banks gathered together

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Speaker 1: and cutch rate together by point five percentage point at

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Speaker 1: the same time, and this I think was the shock

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Speaker 1: that actually started afterwards a lot of policies and the recovery.

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Speaker 1: Now they don't have the luxury of doing as big

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Speaker 1: things as what they've done. They've rescued that once, but

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Speaker 1: next time it has to be governments. And what we're

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Speaker 1: saying here is it would be incredibly powerful if, in

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Speaker 1: the case officer down governments with sitting together, I don't

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Speaker 1: know seeing that they're going to boost their fiscals, they're

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Speaker 1: going to boost fiscal spending by upon five percent of GDP,

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Speaker 1: because that would benefit all even more than if they

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Speaker 1: had done it individually, and it would relieve central banks

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Speaker 1: from the burden of always rescuing us. Within this slowdown,

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Speaker 1: there's this big part of each economic consumption within always

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Speaker 1: c D work is China becoming a more consumer nation.

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Speaker 1: China is indeed becoming a consumer nation. As you know,

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Speaker 1: the excess current to conserve plus as quas I vanished,

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Speaker 1: but China still is a needs export to continue to grow.

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Speaker 1: And what we've seen so far is that trade tension

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Speaker 1: have shaken confidence in China. You've seen the stock market

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Speaker 1: collapsing and the government trying to once again stimulate the

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Speaker 1: economy and response not so much with the currency that

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Speaker 1: we were discussing earlier, but with the usual traditional, the

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Speaker 1: traditional tool of supporting infrastructure investment. Now that's not really

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Speaker 1: good because they're filing up debt on existing that unless

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Speaker 1: you know that is really high in China. Lawrence Wood,

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Speaker 1: thank you so much, greatly appreciated with the o E

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Speaker 1: c D in pairs with their important report and report

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Speaker 1: and not gloom and doom, decidedly not, but just looking

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Speaker 1: at um a weight to the global economy as well. Now,

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Speaker 1: let's find out where the U s economy is headed

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Speaker 1: with Michael Faroli. Mike Faroli is JP Morgan's chief economist.

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Speaker 1: He's been putting together his twenty nineteen outlook release, but

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Speaker 1: just to give you a more current information, orders to

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Speaker 1: US factories for big ticket manufactured goods fell by the

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Speaker 1: largest amount in fifteen months. Michael Faroli, great to have

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Speaker 1: you with us. What do you attribute this decline to. Well,

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Speaker 1: we did have a big decline um in in aircraft

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Speaker 1: wars in particular, which can be really volatile month to month.

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Speaker 1: Uh So we often look at the ex transportation numbers

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Speaker 1: which were up a tenth. That was obviously a lot

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Speaker 1: better than the headline, but still somewhat disappointing. So when

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Speaker 1: we kind of cut through the details of report and

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Speaker 1: there are a lot of you know, subcategories that we

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Speaker 1: tend to look at, it was it was not disastrous,

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Speaker 1: but it was definitely on the softer side of expectations. Well,

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Speaker 1: this does raise the issue, Michael, about corporate spending and

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Speaker 1: just spending by a lot of businesses in general. We

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Speaker 1: were really sort of expecting a bumping capex and I'm

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Speaker 1: wondering that as we go into t whether we'll see

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Speaker 1: a little bit more capex or whether we're going to

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Speaker 1: see a pullback. Well, we did get a bump. We

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Speaker 1: got a bump in the first first half of the

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Speaker 1: year when capex UM grew around ten percent, then third

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Speaker 1: quarter softened pretty considerably, UM almost flat in the third quarter.

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Speaker 1: We do expect it will do better as we go

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Speaker 1: into not looking for blowout numbers on capex UM. So

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Speaker 1: we think capital spending may real. Capital spending maybe up

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Speaker 1: around four percent next year, which is uh, it's okay,

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Speaker 1: but it definitely is not enough. I don't think to

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Speaker 1: change the picture when it comes to things like productivity.

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Speaker 1: I think there had been hopes that do you get

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Speaker 1: this big investment boom more you know, more investment, more

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Speaker 1: capital means more productivity. Uh. I don't have high hopes

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Speaker 1: for that actually, um, And I think today's number is

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Speaker 1: consistent with uh, you know, just kind of okay. Capital

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Speaker 1: spending grows, but nothing that's really changes the narrative of

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Speaker 1: what we've seen over the past few years. Michael Faroli,

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Speaker 1: does this mean that you're putting lumps of coal in

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Speaker 1: your Christmas stockings for as you prepare? What is the

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Speaker 1: outlook for So? I think we have to keep in

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Speaker 1: mind that eighteen was um, you know, somewhat exceptional in

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Speaker 1: the degree of policy support we had. Right, so you

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Speaker 1: had not only a big tax cut which everyone knows about,

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Speaker 1: which was signing a law late last year, we also

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Speaker 1: had a big increase in federal spending, signing a lot

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Speaker 1: earlier this year, and so you were really kind of

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Speaker 1: firing on all gears. Obviously, the FED was tightening, but

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Speaker 1: not getting tight in an absolute sense. So you know,

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Speaker 1: this year you were kind of in the sweet spot

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Speaker 1: where the economy was, you know, comming along. There wasn't

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Speaker 1: too much of a headwind from the global economy like

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Speaker 1: you had seen in years past. Uh, So we really

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Speaker 1: had all all the stars were kind of aligned this year.

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Speaker 1: And so next year we do think things slow, not

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Speaker 1: because we um you know, are putting ups of coal.

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Speaker 1: We're trying to be particularly downbeat, but I think what

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Speaker 1: we're seeing as of a reversion to the mean after

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Speaker 1: what had been some unusual but also temporary support. So

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Speaker 1: uh but you know, in round numbers, this year we

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Speaker 1: have growth around three percent. Next year we see it

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Speaker 1: uh heading back down to round two, which would be

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Speaker 1: more in line with the trend that had prevailed for

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Speaker 1: much of the expansion up until last year. But this year,

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Speaker 1: I'm sorry, yeah, Michael, you talk about temporary support, do

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Speaker 1: you see any prospect of maybe some additional fiscal stimulus, uh,

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Speaker 1: if not even a second type of tax cut, whether

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Speaker 1: it's for the middle class or for corporations. Yes, I think, uh,

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Speaker 1: you know, tax cut two point oh I some people

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Speaker 1: have called it. Uh, it's gonna be a little, well

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Speaker 1: a fair bit tougher, I think in in the upcoming Congress,

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Speaker 1: given that, you know, we don't see a whole lot

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Speaker 1: of areas of commonality on on tax policy between um

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Speaker 1: uh Democrats and Republicans. That there are as these days,

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Speaker 1: some aspects uh middle class tax cuts which will expire,

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Speaker 1: um are set to expire in a few years. Perhaps

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Speaker 1: you could get something there. But even if that happens,

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Speaker 1: we don't think it will really matter much for because

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Speaker 1: a lot of these provisions expire and like so, UM,

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Speaker 1: you'd really have to have very forwar looking behavior for

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Speaker 1: that kind of uh change in the task codes to

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Speaker 1: really matter for um uh for the outlook, I do

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Speaker 1: think it's things get a little interesting when it comes

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Speaker 1: to infrastructure. UM. You know some headlines that the president

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Speaker 1: would like to do a deal with Democrats in Congress

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Speaker 1: to get something done on infrastructure. UM, I just said

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Speaker 1: it's interesting, but we're not so far we haven't sort

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Speaker 1: of ten filed that into our forecast, in part because

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Speaker 1: so what so, Michael, we only have about thirty seconds

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Speaker 1: what have you penciled in for bonds for so we

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Speaker 1: do think the FEDS UH is going to con in

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Speaker 1: you hiking interest rates obviously that um, you know, we're

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Speaker 1: kind of on our back feed on that or given

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Speaker 1: some of the recent UH commentary and some of the

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Speaker 1: market moves, but we still have them hiking once a

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Speaker 1: quarter uh every quarter next year, which would uh, um,

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Speaker 1: you know, get tenure rates up to around three and

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Speaker 1: a half percent by as you get into like, uh

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Speaker 1: well into the second half of next year. All Right,

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Speaker 1: we gotta leave it there, Thanks very much, Michael Faroli.

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Speaker 1: He is the chief US economist for JP Morgan Securities

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Speaker 1: and the Triple A. The Federation of Motor Clubs throughout

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Speaker 1: North America estimates that nearly fifty five million Americans will

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Speaker 1: journey fifty miles or more away from home this Thanksgiving.

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Speaker 1: That is nearly a five increase over last year. And

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Speaker 1: when you travel, typically use a credit card or a

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Speaker 1: debit card or a charge card. Of some kind, and

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Speaker 1: here to help us understand what is the best way

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Speaker 1: to make that travel affordable is Brian Kelly. He is

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Speaker 1: the points guy. Alright, points guy. Have the deal's gotten

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Speaker 1: better or worse for travelers? Well, when it comes to

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Speaker 1: credit cards, the credit card market is hot. You know.

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Speaker 1: For for anyone listening who hasn't changed their credit card

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Speaker 1: in years, you're missing out on some of the biggest

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Speaker 1: bonuses we've ever seen. The Capital one Venture card now

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Speaker 1: has a seventy five thousand point bonus and the fee

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Speaker 1: has waived the first year. Uh. They also announced that

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Speaker 1: you do have to spend five grand in the first

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Speaker 1: three months. Who listening here doesn't spend five thousand within

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Speaker 1: I'm just you know, so the total the disclaimer. But

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Speaker 1: but Brian, maybe just step back a second. Because the

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Speaker 1: way you compute the value of the card, it is

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Speaker 1: a combination of the miles that are being offered. After

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Speaker 1: a certain spending amount, you get a perks value, then

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Speaker 1: there's the annual fee, and then you get a total value. Right,

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Speaker 1: So there a couple of different pieces that go into this. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: and not everyone's gonna get maximum value, but at a

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Speaker 1: very minimum. You know, most credit card points uh AMEX,

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Speaker 1: Chase kept one. They're gonna be worth like one cent

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Speaker 1: a piece, give or take when you redeem for travel.

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Speaker 1: But what you know, the points guy we obsess over

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Speaker 1: is how to get more value out of that and

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Speaker 1: with all of these major credit card points, and that

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Speaker 1: that's by transferring to partners. So, um, you know, you

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Speaker 1: can fly first class leftons of by transferring your MX

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Speaker 1: points to they have a new transfer partner, Avianca Life Miles,

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Speaker 1: you know, the the South American Airline, which even if

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Speaker 1: you don't want to go to South America, all these

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Speaker 1: airlines have alliances and uh Avianca's and star Lines and

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Speaker 1: you can. It's an arbitrage opportunity to transfer to a

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00:21:41,960 --> 00:21:44,879
Speaker 1: partner and then redeem it on their partner. So it

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Speaker 1: gets really how many So how many points are miles

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Speaker 1: or whatever you want to call them? How many do

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Speaker 1: you have to transfer to the Avianca? Yeah, seventy thousand

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Speaker 1: and you can fly liftons of first class one way

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Speaker 1: in New York to Frankfurt. Let's a that's a ten

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Speaker 1: thousand dollar ticket. To think about that, seventy thousand points

385
00:22:03,200 --> 00:22:05,520
Speaker 1: would normally get your seven hundred bucks, but instead you

386
00:22:05,520 --> 00:22:08,600
Speaker 1: can get ten thousand in value by transferring and redeeming

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Speaker 1: on a partner for first class. You have to fly anything.

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Speaker 1: Hope you never have to step foot on an al

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Speaker 1: Bianca plane. That's the beauty of these airline alliances. So

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Speaker 1: no matter what miles you have, even if you have

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Speaker 1: American Airlines miles you got to go to Hong Kong,

392
00:22:21,640 --> 00:22:25,119
Speaker 1: don't fly American through l a flight cast a NonStop

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Speaker 1: JFK to Hong Kong and get this. Not only is

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00:22:28,040 --> 00:22:31,520
Speaker 1: it a better airline with better service and food, it's

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Speaker 1: less miles. But the thing is American won't show cast

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Speaker 1: a award availability online, so you have to pick up

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Speaker 1: the phone and call. So that's why there's all these

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Speaker 1: little tricks. But once you learn them, and I know

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00:22:41,160 --> 00:22:44,000
Speaker 1: people always say stop sharing the secrets when when we

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Speaker 1: talk about this, because you know, most people will go

401
00:22:47,640 --> 00:22:50,520
Speaker 1: to an airline website and say, oh shucks, there's no availability,

402
00:22:50,640 --> 00:22:53,840
Speaker 1: These miles are worthless, when in fact there's tons of availability.

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Speaker 1: You just have to, you know, learn how to to

404
00:22:56,680 --> 00:22:59,560
Speaker 1: sniff it out. Does it? Does it? Typically pay to

405
00:23:00,440 --> 00:23:06,040
Speaker 1: the domestic or the local carrier of a particular destination

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Speaker 1: and then see which Frequent Flyer mile program they are

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00:23:10,520 --> 00:23:13,240
Speaker 1: part of. In order to do this, yeah, exactly. I

408
00:23:13,280 --> 00:23:14,800
Speaker 1: mean I would think, you know, where are you going,

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00:23:15,040 --> 00:23:16,800
Speaker 1: you know, and and look at the best airline to

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Speaker 1: get there and then look at their partners. Um. So yeah,

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Speaker 1: you're totally right. And sometimes it makes sense, you know,

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Speaker 1: to just buy tickets on a low cost carrier, you know,

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Speaker 1: especially we're going around Asia or Europe, you know, don't

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Speaker 1: waste your miles, um, you know, because you know, business

415
00:23:32,040 --> 00:23:34,600
Speaker 1: class in Europe isn't even business class. It's basically coach

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Speaker 1: with the middle seat blocked out. So so yeah, I

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Speaker 1: mean not. My recommendation is to you know, get the

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Speaker 1: most expensive flight or hotel and then figure out how

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Speaker 1: to how to use points to get there. All right,

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Speaker 1: I gotta ask you about the hotel loyalty programs and

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Speaker 1: the star Wood Hotel loyalty program for a lot of

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Speaker 1: Starward loyalists, are you know Charlie from Long Island right

423
00:23:59,720 --> 00:24:03,760
Speaker 1: say and says, gee, you give me gold status when

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Speaker 1: I've got ten room nights, and you'll give me Platinum

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00:24:07,440 --> 00:24:11,840
Speaker 1: status when you when I have fifty room nights. But

426
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Speaker 1: what if I only have twenty five room nights? I've

427
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Speaker 1: spent a month in your hotel properties and I've got nothing.

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Speaker 1: I've gotten kind of this in between status. Yeah, you know,

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Speaker 1: Marriott has made it harder. Starwood was a lot easier

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00:24:25,640 --> 00:24:29,320
Speaker 1: to get status. Um, Marritt has made it more difficult,

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00:24:29,880 --> 00:24:32,679
Speaker 1: especially if you book several rooms and night. You know,

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00:24:32,680 --> 00:24:34,959
Speaker 1: Starwood used to be able to give you elite status

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00:24:35,000 --> 00:24:36,760
Speaker 1: for all the nights that you book under your name,

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00:24:36,800 --> 00:24:40,040
Speaker 1: but Marriott's much more strict, and you know maryt won't

435
00:24:40,080 --> 00:24:41,920
Speaker 1: let you do it on stage. You have to do nights.

436
00:24:41,920 --> 00:24:44,840
Speaker 1: So I think, you know, what Marriott's saying is like,

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00:24:44,960 --> 00:24:48,480
Speaker 1: you've got to stay, you know, really fifty nights a

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00:24:48,600 --> 00:24:51,680
Speaker 1: year for the platinum status. But they're trying to thin

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00:24:51,760 --> 00:24:53,760
Speaker 1: the herd out a little bit and and give more

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00:24:53,800 --> 00:24:56,439
Speaker 1: perks to those top tier. I think I'm a lifetime

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00:24:56,440 --> 00:24:58,880
Speaker 1: Starwood Platinum and I'm still a little skeptical. I think

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00:24:58,880 --> 00:25:02,359
Speaker 1: in general the program, you know, there's still some hiccups

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00:25:02,400 --> 00:25:05,800
Speaker 1: and tech issues, but but yeah, there. I think that's

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00:25:05,800 --> 00:25:08,480
Speaker 1: the same message across all the airlines too. They're making

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00:25:08,480 --> 00:25:10,360
Speaker 1: it much harder. You got to spend more to get

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00:25:10,359 --> 00:25:12,879
Speaker 1: that top tier elite status. But if you really are

447
00:25:12,920 --> 00:25:15,879
Speaker 1: a top tier flyer and spending a lot, then the

448
00:25:15,920 --> 00:25:19,480
Speaker 1: perks are better and you will get more miles. So um,

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00:25:19,520 --> 00:25:22,240
Speaker 1: you know, for those in between our travelers, yeah, you

450
00:25:22,280 --> 00:25:24,679
Speaker 1: are getting squeezed, and especially at the lower level. So

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00:25:24,680 --> 00:25:26,879
Speaker 1: that's why it might make sense to not be so

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00:25:26,960 --> 00:25:30,240
Speaker 1: loyal to one airline and instead, you know, use hotels

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00:25:30,280 --> 00:25:33,159
Speaker 1: dot Com, which is going to give you back no

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00:25:33,200 --> 00:25:35,840
Speaker 1: matter where you stay, whatever hotel you want. All right,

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00:25:35,840 --> 00:25:38,119
Speaker 1: before before we let you go, I have to ask

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00:25:38,160 --> 00:25:42,760
Speaker 1: you about the Chase Sapphire preferred. Do you get a

457
00:25:42,840 --> 00:25:48,440
Speaker 1: free rose every time you travel using that card? Because

458
00:25:48,480 --> 00:25:52,080
Speaker 1: I see a lovely picture of you on a home

459
00:25:53,240 --> 00:25:55,800
Speaker 1: team looks to troll me because I took a funny photo.

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00:25:55,920 --> 00:25:58,959
Speaker 1: You know, latansa first class. I want to, but they

461
00:25:59,000 --> 00:26:03,200
Speaker 1: don't give you socks. Actually, I think in the amended

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00:26:03,240 --> 00:26:05,879
Speaker 1: to kid they have stocks in in a in a pajama.

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00:26:05,920 --> 00:26:07,479
Speaker 1: But yeah, so they took a photo of me once.

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00:26:07,520 --> 00:26:09,320
Speaker 1: And now my team, who you know puts together all

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00:26:09,320 --> 00:26:11,560
Speaker 1: of our posts, well we'll love to throw the picture

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00:26:11,600 --> 00:26:14,880
Speaker 1: of me in in that rose in whatever random post

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00:26:14,960 --> 00:26:18,280
Speaker 1: that they can put it into. But but yeah, and

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00:26:18,320 --> 00:26:20,080
Speaker 1: here's a tip with look Tanda, they've got the Evan

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00:26:20,160 --> 00:26:22,439
Speaker 1: spray missed in the bathroom. I always like to snag

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00:26:22,480 --> 00:26:25,639
Speaker 1: one from the plane before I leave, really, so that's

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00:26:25,680 --> 00:26:29,280
Speaker 1: where they end up. Now we know, all right, Well,

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00:26:29,280 --> 00:26:32,000
Speaker 1: now we know also about the credit cards and how

473
00:26:32,040 --> 00:26:35,159
Speaker 1: to use these programs. Very interesting to focus on the

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00:26:35,240 --> 00:26:39,119
Speaker 1: domestic carriers and then maybe even switch your miles to

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00:26:39,160 --> 00:26:42,679
Speaker 1: the domestic carrier in order in order to get those flights.

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00:26:42,760 --> 00:26:46,719
Speaker 1: Much appreciated for joining us, Brian Kelly. He's the points

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00:26:46,760 --> 00:26:49,800
Speaker 1: guy if you didn't know, he's around to help you

478
00:26:49,840 --> 00:26:52,200
Speaker 1: figure out how to use your credit card and all

479
00:26:52,240 --> 00:26:56,879
Speaker 1: that spending to get lots of free stuff. Thanks for

480
00:26:56,960 --> 00:27:01,080
Speaker 1: listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Subscu gribe and listen

481
00:27:01,280 --> 00:27:06,600
Speaker 1: to interviews on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or whichever podcast platform

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00:27:06,720 --> 00:27:11,040
Speaker 1: you prefer. I'm on Twitter at Tom Keene before the podcast.

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Speaker 1: You can always catch us worldwide. I'm Bloomberg Radio