WEBVTT - How Do Spaghetti Plots Help Predict Storms? 0:00:01.920 --> 0:00:06.880 Welcome to brain Stuff production of iHeart Radio, Hey brain 0:00:06.960 --> 0:00:10.959 Stuff Lauren vocal bomb here. As. The Atlantic hurricane season 0:00:11.000 --> 0:00:14.680 began on June one nine and runs through November thirtieth, 0:00:15.000 --> 0:00:18.599 the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association predicted a range of 0:00:18.680 --> 0:00:21.600 between nine and fifteen storms that would be big enough 0:00:21.640 --> 0:00:24.440 to merit names. That is, storms with winds of thirty 0:00:24.480 --> 0:00:27.240 nine miles per hour about sixty three kilometers per hour 0:00:27.640 --> 0:00:31.319 or higher. Four to eight of these were predicted to 0:00:31.320 --> 0:00:34.640 become hurricanes, and two to four of those were forecast 0:00:34.720 --> 0:00:38.240 to become major hurricanes in category three, four, or five. 0:00:38.680 --> 0:00:40.960 That is what sustained winds of a hundred and eleven 0:00:41.000 --> 0:00:43.640 miles per hour or a hundred and seventy nine kilometers 0:00:43.640 --> 0:00:47.879 per hour or higher. Those categories are from the SOFIA 0:00:47.960 --> 0:00:51.800 Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, which explains the severity of damage 0:00:51.800 --> 0:00:54.760 that can be expected from each hurricane category based on 0:00:54.800 --> 0:00:58.520 the wind's ability to collapse roofs, walls, trees, and power 0:00:58.600 --> 0:01:03.880 infrastructure at different beads. To aid in forecasting efforts, meteorologists 0:01:03.920 --> 0:01:08.640 utilize visualizations called spaghetti models, also sometimes known as spahetti plots. 0:01:09.600 --> 0:01:12.680 To a lay person, spaghetti models look like well, a 0:01:12.760 --> 0:01:16.600 bunch of spaghetti strands thrown against a wall. In reality, though, 0:01:16.800 --> 0:01:19.640 spahetti plots are a method of combining information from a 0:01:19.760 --> 0:01:23.160 variety of predictive models onto one map to come up 0:01:23.200 --> 0:01:27.880 with a picture of a hurricanes potential track. We spoke 0:01:27.920 --> 0:01:30.800 with Daniel J. Leathers, a professor and director of the 0:01:30.880 --> 0:01:35.080 Meteorology and Climatology Program at the University of Delaware. He 0:01:35.160 --> 0:01:38.160 also serves as Delaware State Climatologist and as a co 0:01:38.280 --> 0:01:43.240 director of the Delaware Environmental Observing System. He explained each 0:01:43.280 --> 0:01:46.319 model that's used to predict hurricane paths and in many 0:01:46.360 --> 0:01:49.559 cases intensity can have that path plotted on a map. 0:01:50.200 --> 0:01:52.720 All of spaghetti plot does is take the results from 0:01:52.760 --> 0:01:54.920 all of these models and plot all of them on 0:01:55.120 --> 0:01:59.480 the same map. To understand why spaghetti plots are important, 0:01:59.720 --> 0:02:01.760 you have to understand that there are a whole bunch 0:02:01.760 --> 0:02:04.680 of different modeling methods that are used to track hurricanes, 0:02:05.080 --> 0:02:08.560 and like presidential election polls, for example, they don't all 0:02:08.600 --> 0:02:12.000 produce the same results. The object of creating such a map, 0:02:12.080 --> 0:02:15.040 according to Leathers, is to see the extent to which 0:02:15.200 --> 0:02:19.360 all the different models agree. He said, oh, when the 0:02:19.400 --> 0:02:22.120 paths are very similar to one another. This means that 0:02:22.200 --> 0:02:25.000 all the models are agreeing to a large extent about 0:02:25.000 --> 0:02:28.320 the future path of the storm. In contrast, if the 0:02:28.360 --> 0:02:31.400 individual plots are all over the place quote, then that 0:02:31.560 --> 0:02:34.160 says that there is great uncertainty in the models about 0:02:34.200 --> 0:02:37.120 where the storm will move in the future. Spetty plots 0:02:37.120 --> 0:02:39.080 are a way of seeing all of the model results 0:02:39.120 --> 0:02:41.680 at one time and not relying on just one model 0:02:41.720 --> 0:02:44.440 for a forecast. They are very helpful in conveying the 0:02:44.480 --> 0:02:49.280 certainty or uncertainty of a forecast. The lines on the 0:02:49.400 --> 0:02:52.720 chart indicate the different paths projected by the various models, 0:02:52.880 --> 0:02:57.080 which have varying degrees of reliability. Leathers said. The models 0:02:57.120 --> 0:03:00.320 include dynamical models using the physics of the atmosp fear, 0:03:00.639 --> 0:03:04.960 statistical models, and in some cases analog models to predict 0:03:05.000 --> 0:03:08.720 the coming movement of an individual storm. These models come 0:03:08.760 --> 0:03:12.480 from meteorological organizations from all across the globe of places 0:03:12.520 --> 0:03:15.919 like the National Weather Service, the British met Office, universities 0:03:15.960 --> 0:03:18.880 and so on. Some models are certainly thought to be 0:03:18.880 --> 0:03:21.640 better than others, they are very different in how they 0:03:21.680 --> 0:03:25.920 make predictions and in what they are best at. So 0:03:26.240 --> 0:03:29.560 what if any useful information can lay people get from 0:03:29.560 --> 0:03:33.440 looking at spaghetti plots, A Lether's explains the most useful 0:03:33.480 --> 0:03:37.240 information is the certainty of the forecast. Again, if all 0:03:37.240 --> 0:03:40.240 the paths are very similar, the forecast certainty is high. 0:03:40.640 --> 0:03:42.800 If the paths are very different, the certainty is low. 0:03:43.400 --> 0:03:45.920 If there's a great spread in the forecast tracks, then 0:03:46.000 --> 0:03:48.160 that shows that the models are not doing a great 0:03:48.240 --> 0:03:51.240 job as a suite in figuring out where this particular 0:03:51.240 --> 0:03:55.160 storm is likely to move in the future. Some hurricane 0:03:55.160 --> 0:03:57.080 models can be run in a few seconds on an 0:03:57.160 --> 0:04:01.000 ordinary computer, while others may require hows of calculation by 0:04:01.000 --> 0:04:04.840 a supercomputer. Spaghetti models have changed subtly over the years 0:04:05.040 --> 0:04:08.160 as computing power has improved and researchers have tweaked their 0:04:08.200 --> 0:04:10.920 models based on the great volumes of data we humans 0:04:10.920 --> 0:04:14.760 have been able to gather thanks to computers. Leathers says 0:04:15.240 --> 0:04:17.880 the approach has evolved as more and more hurricane models 0:04:17.880 --> 0:04:20.880 are run in real time, and as technology has allowed 0:04:20.920 --> 0:04:23.479 for putting these models together into a spaghetti plot in 0:04:23.520 --> 0:04:27.120 a timely manner. He predicts that the number of models 0:04:27.240 --> 0:04:30.279 and their sophistication is likely to continue to grow in 0:04:30.279 --> 0:04:38.080 the years ahead. Today's episode were written by Patrick Jake 0:04:38.120 --> 0:04:40.800 Hager and produced by Tyler. Playing brain Stuff is a 0:04:40.800 --> 0:04:43.400 production of iHeart Radio's How Stuff Works. For more in 0:04:43.440 --> 0:04:46.040 this and lots of other sustained topics, visit our home planet, 0:04:46.160 --> 0:04:48.800 how stuff Works dot com. And for more podcasts for 0:04:48.880 --> 0:04:51.760 my heart Radio, visit the iHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, 0:04:51.800 --> 0:04:53.560 or wherever you listen to your favorite shows.