1 00:00:01,920 --> 00:00:06,880 Speaker 1: Welcome to brain Stuff production of iHeart Radio, Hey brain 2 00:00:06,960 --> 00:00:10,959 Speaker 1: Stuff Lauren vocal bomb here. As. The Atlantic hurricane season 3 00:00:11,000 --> 00:00:14,680 Speaker 1: began on June one nine and runs through November thirtieth, 4 00:00:15,000 --> 00:00:18,599 Speaker 1: the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association predicted a range of 5 00:00:18,680 --> 00:00:21,600 Speaker 1: between nine and fifteen storms that would be big enough 6 00:00:21,640 --> 00:00:24,440 Speaker 1: to merit names. That is, storms with winds of thirty 7 00:00:24,480 --> 00:00:27,240 Speaker 1: nine miles per hour about sixty three kilometers per hour 8 00:00:27,640 --> 00:00:31,319 Speaker 1: or higher. Four to eight of these were predicted to 9 00:00:31,320 --> 00:00:34,640 Speaker 1: become hurricanes, and two to four of those were forecast 10 00:00:34,720 --> 00:00:38,240 Speaker 1: to become major hurricanes in category three, four, or five. 11 00:00:38,680 --> 00:00:40,960 Speaker 1: That is what sustained winds of a hundred and eleven 12 00:00:41,000 --> 00:00:43,640 Speaker 1: miles per hour or a hundred and seventy nine kilometers 13 00:00:43,640 --> 00:00:47,879 Speaker 1: per hour or higher. Those categories are from the SOFIA 14 00:00:47,960 --> 00:00:51,800 Speaker 1: Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, which explains the severity of damage 15 00:00:51,800 --> 00:00:54,760 Speaker 1: that can be expected from each hurricane category based on 16 00:00:54,800 --> 00:00:58,520 Speaker 1: the wind's ability to collapse roofs, walls, trees, and power 17 00:00:58,600 --> 00:01:03,880 Speaker 1: infrastructure at different beads. To aid in forecasting efforts, meteorologists 18 00:01:03,920 --> 00:01:08,640 Speaker 1: utilize visualizations called spaghetti models, also sometimes known as spahetti plots. 19 00:01:09,600 --> 00:01:12,680 Speaker 1: To a lay person, spaghetti models look like well, a 20 00:01:12,760 --> 00:01:16,600 Speaker 1: bunch of spaghetti strands thrown against a wall. In reality, though, 21 00:01:16,800 --> 00:01:19,640 Speaker 1: spahetti plots are a method of combining information from a 22 00:01:19,760 --> 00:01:23,160 Speaker 1: variety of predictive models onto one map to come up 23 00:01:23,200 --> 00:01:27,880 Speaker 1: with a picture of a hurricanes potential track. We spoke 24 00:01:27,920 --> 00:01:30,800 Speaker 1: with Daniel J. Leathers, a professor and director of the 25 00:01:30,880 --> 00:01:35,080 Speaker 1: Meteorology and Climatology Program at the University of Delaware. He 26 00:01:35,160 --> 00:01:38,160 Speaker 1: also serves as Delaware State Climatologist and as a co 27 00:01:38,280 --> 00:01:43,240 Speaker 1: director of the Delaware Environmental Observing System. He explained each 28 00:01:43,280 --> 00:01:46,319 Speaker 1: model that's used to predict hurricane paths and in many 29 00:01:46,360 --> 00:01:49,559 Speaker 1: cases intensity can have that path plotted on a map. 30 00:01:50,200 --> 00:01:52,720 Speaker 1: All of spaghetti plot does is take the results from 31 00:01:52,760 --> 00:01:54,920 Speaker 1: all of these models and plot all of them on 32 00:01:55,120 --> 00:01:59,480 Speaker 1: the same map. To understand why spaghetti plots are important, 33 00:01:59,720 --> 00:02:01,760 Speaker 1: you have to understand that there are a whole bunch 34 00:02:01,760 --> 00:02:04,680 Speaker 1: of different modeling methods that are used to track hurricanes, 35 00:02:05,080 --> 00:02:08,560 Speaker 1: and like presidential election polls, for example, they don't all 36 00:02:08,600 --> 00:02:12,000 Speaker 1: produce the same results. The object of creating such a map, 37 00:02:12,080 --> 00:02:15,040 Speaker 1: according to Leathers, is to see the extent to which 38 00:02:15,200 --> 00:02:19,360 Speaker 1: all the different models agree. He said, oh, when the 39 00:02:19,400 --> 00:02:22,120 Speaker 1: paths are very similar to one another. This means that 40 00:02:22,200 --> 00:02:25,000 Speaker 1: all the models are agreeing to a large extent about 41 00:02:25,000 --> 00:02:28,320 Speaker 1: the future path of the storm. In contrast, if the 42 00:02:28,360 --> 00:02:31,400 Speaker 1: individual plots are all over the place quote, then that 43 00:02:31,560 --> 00:02:34,160 Speaker 1: says that there is great uncertainty in the models about 44 00:02:34,200 --> 00:02:37,120 Speaker 1: where the storm will move in the future. Spetty plots 45 00:02:37,120 --> 00:02:39,080 Speaker 1: are a way of seeing all of the model results 46 00:02:39,120 --> 00:02:41,680 Speaker 1: at one time and not relying on just one model 47 00:02:41,720 --> 00:02:44,440 Speaker 1: for a forecast. They are very helpful in conveying the 48 00:02:44,480 --> 00:02:49,280 Speaker 1: certainty or uncertainty of a forecast. The lines on the 49 00:02:49,400 --> 00:02:52,720 Speaker 1: chart indicate the different paths projected by the various models, 50 00:02:52,880 --> 00:02:57,080 Speaker 1: which have varying degrees of reliability. Leathers said. The models 51 00:02:57,120 --> 00:03:00,320 Speaker 1: include dynamical models using the physics of the atmosp fear, 52 00:03:00,639 --> 00:03:04,960 Speaker 1: statistical models, and in some cases analog models to predict 53 00:03:05,000 --> 00:03:08,720 Speaker 1: the coming movement of an individual storm. These models come 54 00:03:08,760 --> 00:03:12,480 Speaker 1: from meteorological organizations from all across the globe of places 55 00:03:12,520 --> 00:03:15,919 Speaker 1: like the National Weather Service, the British met Office, universities 56 00:03:15,960 --> 00:03:18,880 Speaker 1: and so on. Some models are certainly thought to be 57 00:03:18,880 --> 00:03:21,640 Speaker 1: better than others, they are very different in how they 58 00:03:21,680 --> 00:03:25,920 Speaker 1: make predictions and in what they are best at. So 59 00:03:26,240 --> 00:03:29,560 Speaker 1: what if any useful information can lay people get from 60 00:03:29,560 --> 00:03:33,440 Speaker 1: looking at spaghetti plots, A Lether's explains the most useful 61 00:03:33,480 --> 00:03:37,240 Speaker 1: information is the certainty of the forecast. Again, if all 62 00:03:37,240 --> 00:03:40,240 Speaker 1: the paths are very similar, the forecast certainty is high. 63 00:03:40,640 --> 00:03:42,800 Speaker 1: If the paths are very different, the certainty is low. 64 00:03:43,400 --> 00:03:45,920 Speaker 1: If there's a great spread in the forecast tracks, then 65 00:03:46,000 --> 00:03:48,160 Speaker 1: that shows that the models are not doing a great 66 00:03:48,240 --> 00:03:51,240 Speaker 1: job as a suite in figuring out where this particular 67 00:03:51,240 --> 00:03:55,160 Speaker 1: storm is likely to move in the future. Some hurricane 68 00:03:55,160 --> 00:03:57,080 Speaker 1: models can be run in a few seconds on an 69 00:03:57,160 --> 00:04:01,000 Speaker 1: ordinary computer, while others may require hows of calculation by 70 00:04:01,000 --> 00:04:04,840 Speaker 1: a supercomputer. Spaghetti models have changed subtly over the years 71 00:04:05,040 --> 00:04:08,160 Speaker 1: as computing power has improved and researchers have tweaked their 72 00:04:08,200 --> 00:04:10,920 Speaker 1: models based on the great volumes of data we humans 73 00:04:10,920 --> 00:04:14,760 Speaker 1: have been able to gather thanks to computers. Leathers says 74 00:04:15,240 --> 00:04:17,880 Speaker 1: the approach has evolved as more and more hurricane models 75 00:04:17,880 --> 00:04:20,880 Speaker 1: are run in real time, and as technology has allowed 76 00:04:20,920 --> 00:04:23,479 Speaker 1: for putting these models together into a spaghetti plot in 77 00:04:23,520 --> 00:04:27,120 Speaker 1: a timely manner. He predicts that the number of models 78 00:04:27,240 --> 00:04:30,279 Speaker 1: and their sophistication is likely to continue to grow in 79 00:04:30,279 --> 00:04:38,080 Speaker 1: the years ahead. Today's episode were written by Patrick Jake 80 00:04:38,120 --> 00:04:40,800 Speaker 1: Hager and produced by Tyler. Playing brain Stuff is a 81 00:04:40,800 --> 00:04:43,400 Speaker 1: production of iHeart Radio's How Stuff Works. For more in 82 00:04:43,440 --> 00:04:46,040 Speaker 1: this and lots of other sustained topics, visit our home planet, 83 00:04:46,160 --> 00:04:48,800 Speaker 1: how stuff Works dot com. And for more podcasts for 84 00:04:48,880 --> 00:04:51,760 Speaker 1: my heart Radio, visit the iHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, 85 00:04:51,800 --> 00:04:53,560 Speaker 1: or wherever you listen to your favorite shows.