Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, alongside
Speaker 1: my co host Matt Miller. Every business day, we bring
Speaker 1: you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along
Speaker 1: with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets Podcast
Speaker 1: on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and
Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. Let's check in with
Speaker 1: Ira Jersey, chief US interest rate strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence.
Speaker 1: So again, Ira, about all all I know about your business?
Speaker 1: I can sum up and believe me, I don't want
Speaker 1: to know anymore. I can sum up in one function
Speaker 1: WI RP and all I know is the markets tell
Speaker 1: me that rates are going to peak in May and
Speaker 1: then start going down. Are we going to hear anything
Speaker 1: like that from FED Chairman J Pale tomorrow? Well, I
Speaker 1: don't think so. I think actually Jay Powell will probably say,
Speaker 1: you know, we're still in inflation fighting mode. We're going
Speaker 1: to you know, hike one more time, and we're going
Speaker 1: to let the data guide us going forward. So so
Speaker 1: I think he's going to try to say that, Look,
Speaker 1: unless the unemployment rate goes up or inflation comes down
Speaker 1: a lot we're not going to be cutting interest rates.
Speaker 1: I think the financial market anks that we've seen over
Speaker 1: the last ten days or so is really what's what's
Speaker 1: driving the market to think that the Fed's going to
Speaker 1: wind up easing monetary policy a lot earlier than it
Speaker 1: was thinking just two or three weeks ago, and really
Speaker 1: not much has changed with the underlying economy. I think
Speaker 1: just the markets pricing in the risk that that will
Speaker 1: be contagient from what's going on with the banking sector.
Speaker 1: I a couple of months ago, you came onto the
Speaker 1: show and Ted and said that there was a cap
Speaker 1: on yield, especially on the front end of the curve,
Speaker 1: because rate cuts were being priced in. Are rate cuts
Speaker 1: still being priced in? Yeah, so so we're we're cutting.
Speaker 1: We're actually pricing for a few interest rate cuts, at
Speaker 1: least two interest rate cuts before the end of the year.
Speaker 1: And I think that you know that that's going to
Speaker 1: that's starting to be priced out now right. Some of
Speaker 1: the market acction that we've seen today, I think with
Speaker 1: some of the more explicit protection for the positors that
Speaker 1: governments are doing, the fact that we've tried to work
Speaker 1: out the credit suee situation, all of those things are
Speaker 1: making it the markets kind of reprice the cuts that
Speaker 1: were priced in UM. But but the you know, we
Speaker 1: still are going to price in cuts, right because at
Speaker 1: some point in the near future. UM. I still think
Speaker 1: that it's pretty likely and you know, we've thought this
Speaker 1: and this is only changed incrementally over the last week. UM.
Speaker 1: Is that is that the Fed's gonna hike one or
Speaker 1: two more times, and then they're going to and then
Speaker 1: they're going to pause, and then more than likely the
Speaker 1: next move is going to be a cut. The bigger question,
Speaker 1: I think is when will that first cut start, When
Speaker 1: will that first cup be and then the magnitude and
Speaker 1: pace of cuts thereafter, And the market is you know,
Speaker 1: basically had priced before all of this financial market turmoil
Speaker 1: um UM had been pricing basically very slow pace of
Speaker 1: cuts in twenty twenty four. UM. Now I think that
Speaker 1: that was always unlikely because when the Fed starts to cut,
Speaker 1: they're cutting because there's a there's usually a problem in
Speaker 1: the economy, and and they'll cut more aggressively. So the yeah,
Speaker 1: the market is pricing for cuts. It's actually pricing for
Speaker 1: cuts in the second half this year. I think though
Speaker 1: eventually those are going to be priced out in the
Speaker 1: next week or so, and I think that that could
Speaker 1: easily start tomorrow with J Powell's press conference And Ira,
Speaker 1: do you think FED Chairman J Powe will address the
Speaker 1: banking turmoil which is a phrase I've been using, I've
Speaker 1: been avoiding crisis. Do you think he will address it
Speaker 1: or will have to be maybe response to some questions
Speaker 1: or how do you think he need he deals with this? Yeah,
Speaker 1: I think turmoils the right word for it. Certainly it's
Speaker 1: not yet a crisis, right and the FED and other
Speaker 1: policymakers are working hard to avoid it becoming a crisis.
Speaker 1: But yeah, J Powell definitely has to address that, and
Speaker 1: I think the way that that they'll couch it, and
Speaker 1: I think that there will be something in the post
Speaker 1: meeting statement and then he'll be a little bit more detailed.
Speaker 1: In his opening remarks at the press conference, half an
Speaker 1: hour later, is saying we hiked interest rates by twenty
Speaker 1: five basis points because inflation is still a problem. We
Speaker 1: are aware that the banking sector has some issues. We
Speaker 1: are using our liquidity and funding facilities to the best
Speaker 1: of our ability, and we're using our credential regulatory authority
Speaker 1: in order to, you know, make sure that the financial
Speaker 1: sector is as safe and sound as we can make it.
Speaker 1: So I think that he'll try to different connect the
Speaker 1: monetary policy and the and the banking regulator and funding policy.
Speaker 1: All right, we're going to head down to Washington, DC.
Speaker 1: We thank you though for your comments here today our
Speaker 1: Jersey chief US Interest Rate Strategists. You're listening to the
Speaker 1: team Ken's our live program Bloomberg Markets weekdays at ten am,
Speaker 1: easting on Bloomberg dot com, the I Heart Radio app,
Speaker 1: and the Bloomberg Business app, or listen on demand wherever
Speaker 1: you get your podcast. Well, how's this for a headline
Speaker 1: on the Bloomberg terminal hike. You lose pause, you lose more.
Speaker 1: That's twenty five basis point FED call, and the author
Speaker 1: of that is Anna Wong, Chief us as for Bloomberg Economics,
Speaker 1: and give us a sense of kind of the tight
Speaker 1: rope this FED is walking right now as it begins.
Speaker 1: It's it's two day meeting, right So on one hand,
Speaker 1: the FED has a very compelling case to pause, as
Speaker 1: many people want them to because you know, the financial market,
Speaker 1: it's very skittish. We're still in the middle of the
Speaker 1: banking crisis. You don't know which shoe is going to
Speaker 1: drop tomorrow. On the other hand, inflation is still at
Speaker 1: forty year high, and in fact, inflation and in this
Speaker 1: current you know, banking crisis is the highest in any
Speaker 1: other banking crisis in the last one hundred and forty
Speaker 1: years we found. So there's still a very good case
Speaker 1: to continue hiking. This is why it will be a
Speaker 1: very very tough decision tomorrow. And you use the term
Speaker 1: banking crisis, and I've been hesitant to use that term.
Speaker 1: I'm not sure what it is. It's it's not two
Speaker 1: thousand and eight. To me, give us a sense, your
Speaker 1: sense as a trained economist, how serious is this that
Speaker 1: what we've experienced over the past couple of weeks. Well,
Speaker 1: I so, first of all, I think in the compared
Speaker 1: to all the other banking crisis, which is defined as
Speaker 1: a bank run that could lead to closure, merging, or
Speaker 1: take over one or more financial institutions, well, I think
Speaker 1: this bank run that we're seeing is not as crazy
Speaker 1: as the past nine bank runs in a banking crisis
Speaker 1: in the past one hundred and forty years. But it
Speaker 1: could get worse. I'm not saying it won't, but but
Speaker 1: I think that, you know, the economic impact of the
Speaker 1: current crisis, I'm our predictions is that it is not
Speaker 1: as severe as the previous ones. Well, Anna Paul Sweeney
Speaker 1: mentioned this earlier in the show. You made a pretty
Speaker 1: exciting call about five percent of a terminal rate. Then
Speaker 1: we had Jamie Diamond talk about a six percent terminal rate,
Speaker 1: which kind of got the markets excited as well. As
Speaker 1: we talk about this banking termoil, is there a possibility
Speaker 1: that the term all weight goes in the other directions? Well,
Speaker 1: you know, the terminal rate was going to five point
Speaker 1: seven five before the the collapse of the SVP. It
Speaker 1: was the heading towards the direction of six, right, But
Speaker 1: now it's fallen back to just right below five. And
Speaker 1: I think that given our prediction of what the fight
Speaker 1: would do, which is another hike of twenty five pips
Speaker 1: so that they get determined the FI funds rate to
Speaker 1: five percent, maybe there will signal in the SEP just
Speaker 1: in other twenty five pips and then that would get
Speaker 1: us to five point two five in May and perhaps
Speaker 1: pause and hold at that level in the rest of
Speaker 1: the year. And where are we in terms of the
Speaker 1: discussion about the economy and recession. Where where do you
Speaker 1: think that argument stands right now? I think that this
Speaker 1: is the times where the model is kind of syndicating themselves.
Speaker 1: The model of one hundred percent recession can basically the
Speaker 1: model takes past recession as inputs, and in the past recessions,
Speaker 1: whenever the FED raises rates this rapidly, something breaks, and
Speaker 1: the models are telling us something will break before September.
Speaker 1: So we just updated our models. Those those things are
Speaker 1: still telling us that a recession will hit before by
Speaker 1: the time of September this year. Anna, there was a
Speaker 1: great chart on the Bloom Interminal about the financial conditions
Speaker 1: index and how is in a restrictive territory. But I
Speaker 1: think of like eighty three basis points worth of restrictive territory,
Speaker 1: and I'm wondering how much of this kind of chaos,
Speaker 1: which from what I understand, the consensus consensus is that
Speaker 1: it's idiosyncratic, is actually an overreaction as opposed to perhaps
Speaker 1: doing the job of the FED for the FED. Well,
Speaker 1: you know, this gets back to the question of what
Speaker 1: is financial conditions? And remember a month ago everybody was
Speaker 1: saying why why why, Powell saying that financial conditions tightened
Speaker 1: when the financial Conditions index on the terminal, and as
Speaker 1: do other indexes of their show that it has eased. Well.
Speaker 1: One thing that the Food pays a lot of attention
Speaker 1: to is credit lending standards, right, and this is the
Speaker 1: kind of channel that most people are talking about now
Speaker 1: with this banking crisis and how they could cause the
Speaker 1: economy to contract. But the thing is bank lending has
Speaker 1: been declining and contracting very sharp even before the banking
Speaker 1: crisis because of the rise in interest rate. So I
Speaker 1: think to a degree when people say financial conditions is
Speaker 1: tightening right now and the economy is going to contract
Speaker 1: more deeply, well to a very much high degree, that
Speaker 1: already kind of happened. It was in training the last
Speaker 1: six months before the banking crisis. So I think it's
Speaker 1: kind of an overreaction right now in that sense. And
Speaker 1: I know economists and FED watchers really parse the words
Speaker 1: of the FED chairman during his press conference, his or
Speaker 1: her pressed conference. What are you really going to be
Speaker 1: focused on tomorrow when we do get to Q and
Speaker 1: A with FED Chairman Powell, I will be focused on
Speaker 1: whether he draws the line between monitor policy and financial
Speaker 1: stability tools. I think he will channel Christine Lagarde and
Speaker 1: say that inflation is still too high. We've got to
Speaker 1: use interest rate policy to fight inflation financial stability. We
Speaker 1: have enough tools to support them, using our discount window
Speaker 1: and all the liquidity tools that we have developed over
Speaker 1: the past you know, fifteen years. We know we have
Speaker 1: confidence in the banking crisis. So he has to come
Speaker 1: out with a lot of confidence about the US banking
Speaker 1: crisis so that people are not further spooked, but at
Speaker 1: the same time show that the FED is serious about
Speaker 1: fighting inflation and a thirty seconds here, do you think
Speaker 1: that the chair will speak about the possibility of pausing
Speaker 1: quantitative tightening or anything with that regard to bond purchases
Speaker 1: or selling. No, but I think he will be very
Speaker 1: clear that the usage of account window and the expansion
Speaker 1: of veil and sheets through with his account window is
Speaker 1: not saying that the QT is effectively dead. But then
Speaker 1: they will continue to monitor the situation of reserves demand
Speaker 1: to make sure that there wouldn't be some discontinuous fights.
Speaker 1: Thirty seconds here, what would be a mistake by pal tomorrow? Anna,
Speaker 1: I think a mistake it would be if he paused
Speaker 1: great hikes and also to signal imminent pause. All right,
Speaker 1: great stuff, Anna Wong Chief, you as economists Bloomberg Economics.
Speaker 1: I love this academic background BA and economics and statistics
Speaker 1: from Berkeley. I mean, who does that? And then she
Speaker 1: doubles down on this whole thing. It's a PhD in
Speaker 1: economics from the University of Chicago. It's Matthey. It is
Speaker 1: It's very Matthey. But that's why, that's why she's the chief.
Speaker 1: He's economist of Bloomberg Economic Yeah, and she was, you know,
Speaker 1: she's been in the government and you know, so she
Speaker 1: knows how this whole thing works. Former FOOO Reserve Principal
Speaker 1: economist for five years, so she was at the FED.
Speaker 1: She knows what levers get pulled, and she knows what
Speaker 1: data points are really important to this federal feeder reservant,
Speaker 1: to this FED chairman. So we love having access to
Speaker 1: the great mind of Annawank Chief. He as economist for
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Economics. She's based down in Washington, DC. You're listening
Speaker 1: to the tape cancer our live program Bloomberg Markets weekdays
Speaker 1: at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the tuning half,
Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg Business alf You can
Speaker 1: also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New
Speaker 1: York station. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. All right,
Speaker 1: here's the conversation of the morning for me. Here's a guy,
Speaker 1: Jerome Julius, senior credit analyst covers the European banks for
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Intalent and she joined in twenty nineteen, which means
Speaker 1: I did not hire him, but I you're really really
Speaker 1: good things about him. You know, before Bloomberg, he was
Speaker 1: at Merrill Lynch and Barkley's and you know, Fitch Ratings.
Speaker 1: So he's been around the block a few times. And
Speaker 1: he's gonna explain to me what is an eighty one
Speaker 1: bond and why do I care about it? Because boy,
Speaker 1: I'm hearing a lot about that in the context of
Speaker 1: UBS's acquisition of Credit Swiss. So we welcome Drone Julius, Dron.
Speaker 1: What do you got for us? Hi? Thanks, thank you
Speaker 1: for inviting me along. Right, So at one bombs? What
Speaker 1: are they? Eighty one? It stands for additional Tier one
Speaker 1: and it's an instrument that's used by banks, mostly outside
Speaker 1: of the US for the regulatory capital purposes. They are
Speaker 1: the most junior type of bombs. And they said just
Speaker 1: above Corman equity, so just above the shareholders, and they share.
Speaker 1: They are a bit equity like they share with equity.
Speaker 1: A couple of features that make them equity. They are
Speaker 1: perpetual instruments, although the issue does have a call option
Speaker 1: on all those bonds. They've got a discretionary coupon that
Speaker 1: differs from pretty much every other fixed income instrument which
Speaker 1: has a which have must pay coupons, right, and the
Speaker 1: discretionary coupon is similar to a diffidend on a stock.
Speaker 1: They've also got a principle most absorption language that means
Speaker 1: that they have a certain triggers set in motion is activated,
Speaker 1: than an investor could could lose all of its all
Speaker 1: of its money. Um, so they're going a nutshell. Other
Speaker 1: key features of an eighty one bond, it's it's a
Speaker 1: big market. It started in twenty thirteen, and you know,
Speaker 1: it's a ten about ten years ago, and I can't
Speaker 1: remember talking about how much is outstanding, but it's pretty
Speaker 1: much every bank in Europe and that's the area that
Speaker 1: I did I focus on, has got some of those
Speaker 1: instruments outstanding, some more than others. But it's it's a
Speaker 1: big market. Well, then fold into us the idea or
Speaker 1: folding the idea as you say that the Swiss eighty
Speaker 1: one story is just that, a Swiss story. At the
Speaker 1: end of the day, how are you seeing the read
Speaker 1: through into whether or not people still want to touch
Speaker 1: this type of bondum. So, so, what happens with Credit
Speaker 1: Squiss is that the eighty one bombs issued by Credit
Speaker 1: Suis have effectively been wiped out right, They've been written
Speaker 1: down to zero, while the credit shareholders walked away with
Speaker 1: three billion Swiss francs. No, that's not a lot of money,
Speaker 1: but it's also much about the money. It's about the
Speaker 1: principle that the claims hierarchy if your life has been abandoned,
Speaker 1: has been turned all its heads, because normally you shouldn't
Speaker 1: see shareholders with some recoveries while eighty one bombholders are
Speaker 1: wiped out. And that's the huge controversy that you've seen
Speaker 1: play out yesterday and for a long time to come.
Speaker 1: I am now, what's the read across um. It's um,
Speaker 1: you know, it's it's not it's not a perfect read,
Speaker 1: of course, because Switzerland has got its own jurisdiction. It's
Speaker 1: not part of the European Union. UM, the UK has
Speaker 1: a different sort of set of rules again, but they're
Speaker 1: all broadly similar and UM they're also bolved by the
Speaker 1: same constituencies across the globe the eighty one bonds, so
Speaker 1: there is certainly a reader course. UM. I think what
Speaker 1: it has done is it has UM made eighty one
Speaker 1: bond holders potential investors, UM wonder if they shouldn't require
Speaker 1: or the amount of higher yields on US board. And
Speaker 1: that's why you saw us everyones sell off yesterday. There's
Speaker 1: been a bit of a recovery today, to be honest,
Speaker 1: But yesterday, all of a sudden, both across UM, across
Speaker 1: all currencies that every one boards, they they sort of
Speaker 1: bye between four to eight points on on average. And
Speaker 1: that really is a reflection of the fact that UM,
Speaker 1: you know, all of some as they're come to realize
Speaker 1: that in a similar situation worre to play out elsewhere,
Speaker 1: they may end up with nothing, while share all of
Speaker 1: us still gets some recovery. Yeah, if I were, you know,
Speaker 1: an a one bondholder, I'd be upset too, but it
Speaker 1: was in their perspective, so you know, shame on me,
Speaker 1: I guess I don't know, So Jaron talk to us
Speaker 1: about just the credit market for European banks in general
Speaker 1: these days post Credit Swiss and you know the threat
Speaker 1: of you know, are concerned about a recession Howard banks,
Speaker 1: bonds trading in general these days. Well it's uh, you know,
Speaker 1: everything is it's clearly a trading wide particularly well it's
Speaker 1: all started with the Silicon Valley Bank grad that also
Speaker 1: had its repercussions over in Europe, and that's also was
Speaker 1: the trigger I think of the of the problems that
Speaker 1: engulfed Credit Suiss. You're playing a little bank in Silicon
Speaker 1: Valley for European credit wars, don't go down that route. Um,
Speaker 1: people were looking around, Uh you know, are there any
Speaker 1: other banks that have liquidity problems? And the really course
Speaker 1: wasn't wasn't perfect because you know, Silicon Valley Bank, Uh,
Speaker 1: you know, the key one of the key problems there
Speaker 1: was this the unrelized gains on it's health. The majority
Speaker 1: portfolio that didn't apply to Credit Swiss. It doesn't, of
Speaker 1: course a large bomb portfolio, but the large majority of
Speaker 1: that was in its training book, was already marked and market.
Speaker 1: That wasn't the issue. The issue was the fact that
Speaker 1: credit swees already had some liquidity problems in the fourth quarter,
Speaker 1: there were huge outflows, and um, it's it's perhaps not
Speaker 1: a surprise that if liquidity concerns come to the all
Speaker 1: that's that's that inst this I started to get jittery
Speaker 1: about about companies, about banks that have had liquid holes
Speaker 1: in the past. So we had a fifty basis point
Speaker 1: a hike from the ECB last week. We've got a
Speaker 1: Bank of England decision this Friday, I believe, March twenty third,
Speaker 1: eight am I believe for for that for those folks,
Speaker 1: how well are the bond market or the bond holders
Speaker 1: digesting about fifty basis point rate hike and what still
Speaker 1: might be a very hawkish meeting and decision this Friday. Well,
Speaker 1: I'm not an expert, uh, you know, the the central
Speaker 1: bank rates, the policy rates and everything. Um, what I
Speaker 1: would say is that in general, higher rates should be
Speaker 1: a good thing for banks, right because until you know,
Speaker 1: for the past decade, everybody was complaining about how low
Speaker 1: rates were and how that depressed the returns that banks
Speaker 1: were to make. So that's not finally changing. Rates are
Speaker 1: going up, margins are going up. That interesting becomes going
Speaker 1: up for the large majority of banks. But there are
Speaker 1: some side effects and you know the unrealized games on
Speaker 1: healthy maturity boomboogs is one of them. But overall that
Speaker 1: interesting income should benefit from higher rates. The question mark is,
Speaker 1: and I heard you rest referred to it before I
Speaker 1: joined the call is what does that do to landing?
Speaker 1: You know, what do to economy and to the UH
Speaker 1: to long demands and the willing is also bank still
Speaker 1: to land and that's you know that that is one
Speaker 1: of the big announcewers. All right, John, thank you so
Speaker 1: much for joining us. John Julius, he's a senior credit
Speaker 1: analyst for the European banks at Bloomberg Intelligence based in London.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Team cancer a live program Bloomberg
Speaker 1: Markets weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot com,
Speaker 1: the I Heart Radio app, and the Bloomberg Business app.
Speaker 1: We're listening on demand wherever you get your podcast. Clearly,
Speaker 1: one of the lead stories for the last week plus
Speaker 1: has been this UBS and credit Swiss situation, and we
Speaker 1: just had Jerome Julius on from Bloomberg Intelligence. He follows
Speaker 1: the credit side of it, and I note that Bloomberg
Speaker 1: Intelligence is going to be hosting a webinar this Friday,
Speaker 1: and this is and they're focusing closely solely on this
Speaker 1: UBS credit Swiss thing and the implications for the space.
Speaker 1: And we've got an all star lineup. Alison Williams, who
Speaker 1: is our senior bank analyst in the US, covers UBS
Speaker 1: and credit Swiss. Jerome Julius who we just spoke with.
Speaker 1: He covers the European banks from the credit side, so
Speaker 1: we can go to that at one issue. And then
Speaker 1: Elliot Stein, he's ahead of our litigation here at Bloomberg Intelligence.
Speaker 1: He can go to the you know, the whole angle
Speaker 1: about will there be some of these at one bondholders
Speaker 1: with ab sewing and kind of what's the outlook there.
Speaker 1: Details on this you can find if you're a terminal
Speaker 1: user go to s m n R go and if
Speaker 1: you're not a terminal user, you can find it all
Speaker 1: the information out on social media, I know on Twitter
Speaker 1: at BBG Intelligence go check that out. They have all
Speaker 1: the details there. We've already got a bunch of investors
Speaker 1: signed up. So if you want to get smart on
Speaker 1: this UBS Credit Swiss thing and what it means maybe
Speaker 1: for the space going forward, this webinar could be a
Speaker 1: good spot to start. Speaking of that. You can also
Speaker 1: read the great work from and listen to a Shnale
Speaker 1: Bassok on Bloomberg Media all over the place. She is
Speaker 1: our Wall Street reporter. She's been covering this story. And
Speaker 1: I guess one of the angles, Shale and thanks coming
Speaker 1: into our Bloomberg studio here. One of the angles is
Speaker 1: what happens to this Credit Swiss First Boston spin out
Speaker 1: led by one mister Michael Klein, banker to the stars.
Speaker 1: What's the status of that thing? A banker to very
Speaker 1: specific powerful stars that have lost a lot of money
Speaker 1: recently on Credit Swiss. So I think that that's an
Speaker 1: important element of a lot of this is where does
Speaker 1: Michael Klein stand in a lot of the discussions. Remember,
Speaker 1: Michael Line was once a board member of Credit Swees.
Speaker 1: He was supposed to become the leader of this First
Speaker 1: Boston spinoff that everyone was talking about on Wall Street
Speaker 1: because it was the return of First Boston. But now
Speaker 1: there are some interesting things to think about as Credit
Speaker 1: merges with UBS, which is that in essence, for years
Speaker 1: you had UBS and I was front row seat covering
Speaker 1: this really trying to punch above their way rise up
Speaker 1: when it comes to invest in banking across the world,
Speaker 1: particularly particularly in the United States. When I look at
Speaker 1: the League tables today, UBS is number twelve, Credit Spieces
Speaker 1: number thirteen. This is for mergers and acquisitions a down
Speaker 1: market currently, so you know, not to make of that,
Speaker 1: but as long as I've covered at Credit Spees was
Speaker 1: really six or seven, there were top ten investment bank.
Speaker 1: There's really a lot to be gained aut it there
Speaker 1: with a lot of really key relationships with private equity
Speaker 1: firms around the world. So you know, as our reporting
Speaker 1: stands right now, UBS has told counterparts at Credit Spees
Speaker 1: that they select, they want to select bolstering that investment
Speaker 1: bank and then dump riskier parts of that investment bank.
Speaker 1: We've heard some of that from executives as well, but
Speaker 1: they really did not come out full scale and say
Speaker 1: whether First Boston spinoff was a complete no go. The
Speaker 1: preference here is to bolster the investment bank inside of
Speaker 1: UBS as much as they can. So that's the European story.
Speaker 1: Let's cross the Atlantic and bring it back here state
Speaker 1: side and talk about the First Republic story, because there's
Speaker 1: a lot of really big names circulating kind of in
Speaker 1: the air when First Republic is mentioned, Jamie Diamond, Warren Buffett,
Speaker 1: Tom Barrick, who's a board member on First Republic as well,
Speaker 1: and I'm sure there's plenty of others as well, walk
Speaker 1: us through what we know. Yeah, listen, right now, we're
Speaker 1: at a point where you had a series of bank
Speaker 1: failures already in the United States. Some of those have
Speaker 1: led to deals, and some of them have led to
Speaker 1: very messy sales processes that have not led to deals
Speaker 1: at all yet. But when you look at First Republic,
Speaker 1: there's a worry here that if the problems exacerbate, then
Speaker 1: you really have a problem that will spill over into
Speaker 1: the banking system in a bigger way. That is one
Speaker 1: reason why you're watching all of these bank executives in particular.
Speaker 1: So if you talk about the Diamond and the other
Speaker 1: bank side of things, the reason they put the deposits in,
Speaker 1: the reason that they're discussing a potential way to convert
Speaker 1: that into equity, whether there's even more assistance needed, whether
Speaker 1: the government needs to step up in the bigger way.
Speaker 1: There are seriously a lot of counterparties here involved thinking
Speaker 1: about what the right move is next. We are weeks
Speaker 1: away from earning season. I think that's a really important
Speaker 1: catalyst here because we don't have a lot of data
Speaker 1: in terms of how bad things really are under the surface.
Speaker 1: That is something that the market is uncertain and uncomfortable about.
Speaker 1: But you saw our scoop overnight about the idea here
Speaker 1: that the FED is considering, or you know, federal officials
Speaker 1: are considering more extraordinary moves around deposit insurance. That is
Speaker 1: something that is booing the market here and making sure
Speaker 1: that this is something that depositors know that the government
Speaker 1: is really thinking about saves for the deposit system in
Speaker 1: the United States. Jamie Divans doing a wonderful personation of
Speaker 1: JP Morgan kind of stepping in here much less like
Speaker 1: JP Morgan did back in Panic. And I'll get you
Speaker 1: the book because I read a great book on it.
Speaker 1: It's everybody has it. But I'll get it to a second. Um,
Speaker 1: which wise I'm gonna get it to I'm googling. You
Speaker 1: give me the answer I to find the book. Um,
Speaker 1: is it unusual if it feels kind of unusual to
Speaker 1: see a bank executive taking such a leadership role which
Speaker 1: kind of feels almost quasi regulatory. If you will give
Speaker 1: us a sense of kind of what you're reporting has
Speaker 1: turned up. Yeah, it's interesting that you mentioned that because
Speaker 1: I think that there are a couple times in history
Speaker 1: that we can look at. This is my news letter
Speaker 1: last week actually okay, uh, the House of Morgan. Oh yeah,
Speaker 1: have read that. Very good, awesome, So if you want
Speaker 1: to get a sense of history, JP Morgan and saving
Speaker 1: the banking thing that seem a little bit Also, by
Speaker 1: the way, the Morgan Library, we're talking about it. If
Speaker 1: you go there, it's where the exact room where JP
Speaker 1: Morgan brought in bank chiefs, shut the doors, locked the
Speaker 1: doors and made them figure it out that night. So
Speaker 1: we're getting way. Oh yeah, I think it's thirty seven Stree.
Speaker 1: It's open physically there. Yeah. JP Morgan himself, the capitalist,
Speaker 1: his actual library. Uh, they're rare copies of the Gutenberg Bibles.
Speaker 1: I actually just go to We're going to take a
Speaker 1: til trip. Yeah, anyways, memory Lane. But you know, there
Speaker 1: are a couple of instances. I think the LTCM rescue
Speaker 1: is another one where bank chiefs got together. One where
Speaker 1: the bank chiefs or bank executives got together and did
Speaker 1: not require the FEDS, which I think is still an
Speaker 1: outstanding story. Archagos is another example of this where they
Speaker 1: kind of just had to figure it out and that
Speaker 1: did not work out. So well, that's what happens, hary
Speaker 1: to interrupted, isn't this what happened in like oh eight,
Speaker 1: Like Lloyd Blank find basically took that role. Um No,
Speaker 1: you know, I think two thousand and eight overwhelmed everybody.
Speaker 1: It was really the government. It was Geittner, Yeah, um uh,
Speaker 1: Hank Paulson, Hank, Hank, Paulson, um, and and those folks
Speaker 1: that literally, uh, every weekend there's a famous moment and
Speaker 1: two big to fail where you're going to just remember
Speaker 1: this moment where Sorkin writes about Geitner going for a
Speaker 1: run and processing all these problems. But anyways, yes, no,
Speaker 1: but to the point that you guys are making the
Speaker 1: banks themselves are playing a large role in this set
Speaker 1: of rescues, The government itself has complications because there are
Speaker 1: Remember in two thousand and eight, they did raise the
Speaker 1: FDIC deposit limits. I was joking in my mind earlier,
Speaker 1: because I'm a nerdy person, that the FDIC deposit caps
Speaker 1: are facing inflation, right because they have been raised in
Speaker 1: the wake of two thousand and eight, and now we're
Speaker 1: facing an issue here again, where do they get raised?
Speaker 1: Is there another tier system? Is there a number of
Speaker 1: years in which they can provide full, full scale backstops
Speaker 1: the broader system. And by the way, this is all
Speaker 1: happening in a very contentious DC where there's a debt
Speaker 1: limit that we are discussing as well, so you know,
Speaker 1: this is a different time. Last time we got this
Speaker 1: dire of a debt ceiling debate was twenty eleven, so
Speaker 1: not at the same time as we were discussing these
Speaker 1: Banking Act stops. But yeah, the banks certainly are playing
Speaker 1: a large role. But remember, let's not act like they
Speaker 1: don't have something in it for them. They've already gained
Speaker 1: billions of dollars worth of deposits and inflows recently. And
Speaker 1: by the way, if there are more issues in the
Speaker 1: banking system, it could ripple into them as well. It's funny,
Speaker 1: I don't I'm kind of thinking about this. Should I
Speaker 1: be asking where's Brian moynahand on this? He's a big around.
Speaker 1: They're all around. Actually, they're all currently today in DC
Speaker 1: at the Financial Services Forum. Okay, you know it's funny.
Speaker 1: I was talking to a banker yesterday and I was like,
Speaker 1: one of my sources saw you walk into the White House.
Speaker 1: I was like, are you working with the government or
Speaker 1: are you joining the Are you joining the government? And
Speaker 1: just started laughing. Everyone's in DC. And so it has
Speaker 1: definitely been, you know, a group effort, but yes, Jamie
Speaker 1: Diamond has been playing a very key role. What's next year?
Speaker 1: I mean I actually kind of went into last weekend
Speaker 1: thinking I was going to come We're all going to
Speaker 1: come back on Monday with talking about another bank or
Speaker 1: two or three that had failed or was failing, and
Speaker 1: we didn't get that. What are you hearing out there?
Speaker 1: I think the volatility is very concerning the fact that
Speaker 1: you have First Republic up forty percent and down forty
Speaker 1: percent in a matter of twenty four hours. You know,
Speaker 1: these are bank stocks, These are supposed to be safe assets,
Speaker 1: So you know, the trouble that's under the surface is significant.
Speaker 1: The FED day tomorrow, of course, as you guys probably
Speaker 1: been talking about constantly, you know, there are a lot
Speaker 1: of uncertainties about how markets move. Remember it's not just
Speaker 1: the banks that are feeling pain. That's the buy side
Speaker 1: as well. They've lost a lot of money last year
Speaker 1: and they're losing a lot of money this year on
Speaker 1: crowded trades that are now unwinding, right right. Interesting. We'll
Speaker 1: have to see what we hear from the Fed tomorrow
Speaker 1: as they give their perspective. Fed Chairman Jpal that'll be
Speaker 1: coming up tomorrow. We'll certainly have that. You're listening to
Speaker 1: the tape cans are our live program, Bloomberg Markets weekdays
Speaker 1: at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, tune in app,
Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg Business App. You can
Speaker 1: also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New
Speaker 1: York station, Jo Say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. Let's
Speaker 1: talk commodities here, let's talk copper. Let's talk like a
Speaker 1: real company. Uncle As Seidler, vice president of investor Relations.
Speaker 1: For the company's name Arubius Rubis Arubis Okay, Now the
Speaker 1: symbol I'm using here on my Bloomberg term. It's a
Speaker 1: public traded company in Germany, NDA Space gy Equity and
Speaker 1: you pop it up there and it brings you everything
Speaker 1: you need to know. And it's a It's based in Hamburg, Germany.
Speaker 1: It's the largest copper producer in Europe and the largest
Speaker 1: copper recycler that's got a market cap of three point
Speaker 1: eight two billion euros euros. Thank you very much, Agola,
Speaker 1: thanks so much for joining us here, Arubis Copper. Talk
Speaker 1: to us about I want to talk you about the
Speaker 1: copper recycling business. Talk to us about how you guys
Speaker 1: play in a copper recycling business. How important is that
Speaker 1: to you guys? It is important because it's standing for well,
Speaker 1: input material wise for forty percent of our business. So
Speaker 1: we are a copper producer, as you said, and we
Speaker 1: are using as an input material almost one million ton
Speaker 1: of different recycling materials. And now we're doing our first
Speaker 1: move here in the US market in terms of recycling.
Speaker 1: We are just planning to build a big recycling site
Speaker 1: or the first one for complex recycling materials that is
Speaker 1: circuit boards for example here in the US in Augusta
Speaker 1: in Georgia. So we broke ground last June and now
Speaker 1: we're looking forward to spend six hundred forty million euros
Speaker 1: there and yeah, looking for two hundred people around working
Speaker 1: for us over that stuff. Yes, that's definitely a very
Speaker 1: global business here. But would you say most of the
Speaker 1: business that you have are now concentrated in Germany or
Speaker 1: how would you describe where you guys play. Well, Actually,
Speaker 1: the copper business is a global business, so we are
Speaker 1: sourcing globally, especially when it comes to our primary materials,
Speaker 1: that is a material coming from the mines. Here we
Speaker 1: are processing roughly two point one billion tons of copper
Speaker 1: concentrate that is sourced globally. The recycling market for US
Speaker 1: currently is more a European one. We are sourcing thirteen
Speaker 1: percent from the US and now want to go there,
Speaker 1: but it is sourcing wise a global market. It is
Speaker 1: we are producing copper cassots and why a rod. That's
Speaker 1: also a commodity, so to say, that's more a European market.
Speaker 1: Where do you source copper from? Typically typically, well, Bulgaria
Speaker 1: is a market in Europe for US. We have a
Speaker 1: primary smelter in Bulgaria as well. The other ones is
Speaker 1: coming from South America. We are sourcing from Indonesia, from Australia,
Speaker 1: you name it, wherever it comes from. I want to
Speaker 1: shift gears a little bit here. I'm going to talk
Speaker 1: about the pricing action right now in Clark commodity space
Speaker 1: ahead of the FED tomorrow. We're seeing risk metals like
Speaker 1: carper rallying. You think that's a little maybe optimistic saying that,
Speaker 1: like the commodities market is signaling there's going to be
Speaker 1: pass or how do you interpret that? All talking about copper,
Speaker 1: it is always we are named doc copper. So how
Speaker 1: the copper prices developing, that the mirror of the how
Speaker 1: the global economy is developing. Copper prices are currently coming up.
Speaker 1: Talking about the other medals, we are producing gold, silver,
Speaker 1: nickel as well. In this times copper gold is always
Speaker 1: a safe haven. So we've seen the commodity prices for
Speaker 1: precious metals coming up. This is something we are benefiting
Speaker 1: from and we are quite optimistic. China is coming up.
Speaker 1: The demand is increasing after the long period of COVID
Speaker 1: and that means for us we are not directly dealing
Speaker 1: with China, but China is demanding for fifty percent of
Speaker 1: the global copper market and that is where the price increase,
Speaker 1: supplies fluctuations come from. That they drive the prices. So
Speaker 1: what does the opening of China mean both from supply
Speaker 1: and demand of products? Do you think, well, first of all,
Speaker 1: they will ask for more primary materials because that country
Speaker 1: is needed copper and they are even though they are
Speaker 1: producing in that country a lot of copper. They are
Speaker 1: net still a importer of refined coppa. That is good
Speaker 1: for the recycling market. They do well as we all do.
Speaker 1: After the Ukraine War, they try to look and have
Speaker 1: a safe haven for their supply chains, and I think
Speaker 1: hopefully the reopen them will ease a little bit more
Speaker 1: than supply chains. Also for the European American automotive industry.
Speaker 1: I would say, so our listeners are everybody right now
Speaker 1: really able? Me just brought it how everyone is so
Speaker 1: interested in this banking crisis and looking at it from
Speaker 1: every angle imaginable sign A note earlier that adalysts are
Speaker 1: saying that this is actually bullish for the prospects of
Speaker 1: oil prices. Abahts us connect the dats there and why
Speaker 1: that is actually, as we are one of the leading
Speaker 1: copper companies in Europe, I'm not allowed to have an
Speaker 1: open opinion on the copper prices. I can. I can
Speaker 1: quote Goldman Sex for example. They just published something where
Speaker 1: they see that they see the copper price as well
Speaker 1: above ten thousand euros, so it will go up. This
Speaker 1: is what we expect, all right. So recycling, I'm just
Speaker 1: looking at our PGeo function on the Bloomberg termin kind
Speaker 1: of gives you some segment breakout. It's still a single
Speaker 1: digits as a percentage of your total revenue recycling. Is
Speaker 1: that correct what we have? Yeah? Not we are not
Speaker 1: talking in terms of revenue, but but it discounting for
Speaker 1: a lot of our businesses. So talk to us about
Speaker 1: why are you building this plan in Augusta, Georgia, other
Speaker 1: than they be close to the Augusta National Golf Course
Speaker 1: and hopefully get tickets. I mean, talk to about the
Speaker 1: future recycling. M All I know is I'm separating all
Speaker 1: kinds of stuff in my house every day when I
Speaker 1: usually just toss it away, no mass. So what's happening
Speaker 1: in the copper recycling businesses? Big? Is it growing? It
Speaker 1: is extremely gloring, especially in the US. And if you
Speaker 1: do so at home, it is a kind of urban mining.
Speaker 1: So it's good that you do so you should recycle
Speaker 1: it all now. Actually for us, we are coming from
Speaker 1: the market angle. The market for recycling material in the
Speaker 1: US is so promising. Currently we are talking about a
Speaker 1: market volume of roughly six million tons and we have
Speaker 1: growth rates about five to six percent per year. And
Speaker 1: we are the first as I said, complex recycling company
Speaker 1: building a recycling plant here in the US. And at
Speaker 1: the end, the material you bringing to your recycling companies,
Speaker 1: what you are recycling is coming to us one day
Speaker 1: and we are bringing it back into the US market.
Speaker 1: So when we're working at all this these confluence of
Speaker 1: geopolitical factors here, we're working at the war in Ukraine
Speaker 1: now in its second ear, China is reopening. Give us
Speaker 1: a little bit of a broad outlook of just where
Speaker 1: your how you see the outlook for the commodity space
Speaker 1: evolving from here? Yeah, actually talking talking for copper, as
Speaker 1: it is some material for the green transition. It is
Speaker 1: about every electronic vehicle needs copper, or every windmill, every
Speaker 1: solar panel meets that, and that the green and climate
Speaker 1: change things we need to avoid. For all these industries,
Speaker 1: you need the metals we are producing, and therefore we
Speaker 1: think that the copper outlook is extremely positive. All right
Speaker 1: on the side, Thanks so much. I'm just looking at
Speaker 1: my Google maps here for Hamburg. I've never been, but
Speaker 1: it looks really cool town. They got the Elbow River
Speaker 1: coming in and then comes into the town to the
Speaker 1: city of Hamburg, get breaks into like a million different fingers.
Speaker 1: So there's water everywhere it is in Hamburg. How cool
Speaker 1: is that? So I need to get Actually, I've learned
Speaker 1: that we have more bridges than Venice has more than
Speaker 1: Amsterdam too. I'm not sure about that. So anyway, put
Speaker 1: Hamburg on your list of places. Ago looks pretty cool.
Speaker 1: Angles Sidler, vice president of investor relations for a Ruby,
Speaker 1: which is the largest copper producer in Europe and the
Speaker 1: largest copper recycling worldwide. Uncle that joins us live here
Speaker 1: in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker studio. We appreciate her making
Speaker 1: the trip. This is Bloomberg. Thanks for listening to the
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Markets podcast. You can subscribe and listen to interviews
Speaker 1: with Apple Podcasts or whatever podcast platform you prefer. I'm
Speaker 1: Matt Miller. I'm on Twitter at Matt Miller nineteen seventy three.
Speaker 1: And I'm Paul Sweeney. I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney.
Speaker 1: Before the podcast, you can always catch us worldwide at
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio