WEBVTT - U.S. Job Growth Slows in Mixed Labor Picture 0:00:01.800 --> 0:00:04.440 This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Karl Masser and I'm 0:00:04.480 --> 0:00:07.280 Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stanovk. We're here every day bringing 0:00:07.320 --> 0:00:09.840 you the latest news from the world to business and finance, 0:00:09.840 --> 0:00:13.680 plus technology, politics, economics, all purtnising the power of Business 0:00:13.680 --> 0:00:17.160 Week reporters and editors, not to mention our journalists and 0:00:17.160 --> 0:00:20.000 analysts in more than one twenty countries. You can download 0:00:20.000 --> 0:00:23.479 Bloomberg Business Weekend iTunes, SoundCloud, or Bloomberg dot com. You 0:00:23.480 --> 0:00:25.439 can also listen to our radio show at two pm 0:00:25.440 --> 0:00:28.400 Eastern Time on Bloomberg Radio or watch us on YouTube 0:00:28.400 --> 0:00:31.680 search Bloomberg Clobal News. All right, let's get to it 0:00:31.720 --> 0:00:35.920 and the market Driver's report. Let's set the business week agenda, folks, 0:00:36.000 --> 0:00:38.760 let's go in on. Kreta Gupta in the house, Bloomberg 0:00:38.800 --> 0:00:41.560 Markets correspondent here at Bloomberg News. Carlberg and Donna also 0:00:41.640 --> 0:00:44.879 in the house. Welcome, Welcome back, chief industry economist at 0:00:44.880 --> 0:00:48.440 Bloomberg Intelligence, both in our interactive broker studio. Bring out 0:00:48.479 --> 0:00:51.440 some wine and we'll have a party. But I don't 0:00:51.440 --> 0:00:53.760 know should we be partying. Well, Carl, I'm going to 0:00:53.840 --> 0:00:56.920 start with you, because let's start there. The jobs report. 0:00:57.000 --> 0:00:59.800 I felt like really really smart people were like, m 0:01:00.040 --> 0:01:05.600 some good news, some questionable news. Remember used to be 0:01:05.680 --> 0:01:10.319 a really strong jobs report back a long long time ago, 0:01:10.800 --> 0:01:14.119 disappointing result today this was way below even the most 0:01:14.160 --> 0:01:17.480 pessimistic forecast is submitted to Bloomberg. So, you know, in 0:01:17.600 --> 0:01:20.959 a month when the case count was declining and we 0:01:21.160 --> 0:01:24.360 thought that folks were becoming more comfortable with returning to 0:01:24.400 --> 0:01:27.320 the labor force and taking jobs and spending and whatnot, 0:01:27.840 --> 0:01:30.640 that wasn't the case. And and so what I'm concerned 0:01:30.760 --> 0:01:33.440 is this looks a lot like November of last year 0:01:33.520 --> 0:01:35.960 when we had a big disappointment on jobs. Then over 0:01:36.000 --> 0:01:40.160 the course of November December the case counts skyrocketed. Sounds familiar, right, 0:01:40.640 --> 0:01:43.760 and then December was a real bust for payrolls. And 0:01:43.800 --> 0:01:46.240 so you know, this creates bad optics for a FIT 0:01:46.319 --> 0:01:49.400 that's trying to accelerate the taper. At the December meeting, 0:01:49.400 --> 0:01:55.680 when the case counts rising, jobs are disappointing, we do 0:01:55.760 --> 0:01:58.040 because it's not all bad news. There was some There 0:01:58.040 --> 0:02:00.600 were there were some silver linings in there. If you 0:02:00.720 --> 0:02:03.760 call labor force participation running at the same level it 0:02:03.840 --> 0:02:07.040 did when Jimmy Carter was president. I'm sure that's good news, 0:02:07.080 --> 0:02:10.840 but there's a down road to come back here, and 0:02:11.120 --> 0:02:14.400 you're down a downer based on what demographic group you 0:02:14.440 --> 0:02:16.960 fall into by age Cohort. So if we look at 0:02:16.960 --> 0:02:19.600 the very young, the new entrance to the labor force, 0:02:19.960 --> 0:02:21.600 you know, young kids coming out of college, in high 0:02:21.639 --> 0:02:24.640 school and whatnot. Um, that has basically fully rebounded. If 0:02:24.639 --> 0:02:28.040 we look at prime working age population, it's coming back, 0:02:28.120 --> 0:02:30.120 but it's still got a ways to go. And if 0:02:30.120 --> 0:02:32.640 we look at kind of a fifty five plus type 0:02:32.639 --> 0:02:36.160 of crowd, and I well, I'll just stop there, are 0:02:36.200 --> 0:02:38.560 you looking? Know? I was gonna say, and I happened 0:02:38.560 --> 0:02:40.720 to be looking at you, But I'm not tying you 0:02:40.760 --> 0:02:43.320 into the plus crowd. We know that that you know, 0:02:43.400 --> 0:02:45.400 we know how old you are and much younger than 0:02:45.400 --> 0:02:49.079 we but you know, fifty five plus crowd, it's it's 0:02:49.080 --> 0:02:52.519 how you feel. It's how old you feel, Carol Um. 0:02:52.600 --> 0:02:56.560 If we look at that demographic, very very little recovery whatsoever. 0:02:56.880 --> 0:02:59.840 And so the problem is is it the resignation or 0:03:00.000 --> 0:03:02.639 that folks still afraid to step off of the sidelines 0:03:02.680 --> 0:03:05.600 into the labor market. A big concern of the FED 0:03:06.120 --> 0:03:09.440 is the scarring that could potentially happen to the economy. 0:03:09.919 --> 0:03:13.799 And when you look at both prime age and older workers, 0:03:13.919 --> 0:03:16.000 they're not coming back. And if we look at it 0:03:16.160 --> 0:03:19.880 slightly different way, if we go go industry by industry 0:03:19.880 --> 0:03:25.919 by industry, almost every single sector is still operating below February. 0:03:26.240 --> 0:03:28.720 So this is not just at leisure and hospitality story. 0:03:29.040 --> 0:03:32.400 This is broad based across the economy. Questions there, heretod 0:03:32.480 --> 0:03:34.400 to come on in here, and how is this manifesting 0:03:34.400 --> 0:03:36.720 in today's trade? Yeah, well, first off, I'm just gonna 0:03:36.960 --> 0:03:38.960 add one eco thing, even though I'm not the eco 0:03:39.000 --> 0:03:41.400 person in the room here, but November is supposed to 0:03:41.400 --> 0:03:44.120 be historically a very strong month for jobs, right Carl, 0:03:44.200 --> 0:03:47.119 And and to see a miss on this particular set 0:03:47.160 --> 0:03:49.920 of months data is extra bad. In addition to the 0:03:49.960 --> 0:03:52.760 miss um why the market selling off that it might 0:03:52.800 --> 0:03:55.160 be partially because the payrolls report, although it's worth mentioning 0:03:55.360 --> 0:03:57.560 when the headlines did drop, the initial reaction was the 0:03:57.600 --> 0:03:59.920 opposite of what you're seeing right now. You saw features higher, 0:04:00.080 --> 0:04:02.360 you saw the stock market open, all sectors in the 0:04:02.400 --> 0:04:05.200 green bond yields were dipping, and then you saw the 0:04:05.240 --> 0:04:07.520 sell off as the market open so a lot of 0:04:07.520 --> 0:04:09.000 this is tech driven, a lot of this is just 0:04:09.080 --> 0:04:11.760 pulling cash off the table. But remember it is Friday. 0:04:11.960 --> 0:04:14.200 Volume is super low. This looks a lot like what 0:04:14.240 --> 0:04:17.000 we saw last Friday, where people just aren't at their 0:04:17.000 --> 0:04:21.960 desk and they're de risking before the weekend. Huh. Jobs 0:04:21.960 --> 0:04:24.599 came out at eight thirty, the market turned around at 0:04:24.720 --> 0:04:27.559 nine thirty, right, So you can see that it wasn't 0:04:27.600 --> 0:04:30.800 really the job's catalyst necessarily that was driving the narrative 0:04:30.800 --> 0:04:34.039 in the markets. That's so, are you saying COVID or what. Well, 0:04:34.320 --> 0:04:37.040 it really made the turn when President Biden had his 0:04:37.120 --> 0:04:39.800 press conference and so I mean he was coughing in 0:04:39.960 --> 0:04:42.159 Hill and the you know, the press didn't care about 0:04:42.200 --> 0:04:44.320 the jobs report and cared more about his health and whatnot. 0:04:44.320 --> 0:04:46.120 And I'm not saying that drove it, but you know, 0:04:46.160 --> 0:04:48.440 there was you know, the timing there. So you know, 0:04:48.680 --> 0:04:50.560 I haven't had the time to review the full press 0:04:50.600 --> 0:04:53.599 conference yet. Maybe he said some things that the markets 0:04:53.640 --> 0:04:55.520 didn't like as well. We should know too that we 0:04:55.560 --> 0:04:58.280 did hear from the President's physician just does not do 0:04:58.800 --> 0:05:01.560 doesn't have the flu, he said. The physicians said, this 0:05:01.600 --> 0:05:04.080 is what's referred to colloquially as a frog and once throat, 0:05:04.080 --> 0:05:07.320 he's taking over the counter medication. This is Bloomberg Business 0:05:07.360 --> 0:05:11.159 Week with Carol Messer and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stenovic 0:05:11.640 --> 0:05:14.960 on Bloomberg Radio. We've been talking about it, certainly one 0:05:14.960 --> 0:05:17.839 of our top stories on this Friday. Job's Friday. US 0:05:17.920 --> 0:05:21.080 job growth registering its smallest game this year, while the 0:05:21.160 --> 0:05:23.520 unemployment rate fell by more than fourcast to four point 0:05:23.560 --> 0:05:26.719 two percent. That feels pretty low offering, though a mixed 0:05:26.720 --> 0:05:29.240 picture that may nevertheless push the FED to quicken the 0:05:29.279 --> 0:05:31.960 wind down a pandemic stimulus. And this is what we're 0:05:32.000 --> 0:05:35.040 all trying to figure out right now, Really, what does 0:05:35.080 --> 0:05:37.400 this all mean when it comes to monetary policy in 0:05:37.400 --> 0:05:39.120 the US. It's also happening at a time when that 0:05:39.160 --> 0:05:41.680 survey didn't even cover the first the part of the 0:05:41.680 --> 0:05:42.960 month where we even knew what the word on the 0:05:43.040 --> 0:05:45.640 chron met exactly, and you do wonder how that might 0:05:45.680 --> 0:05:48.120 impact things, which is why the next jobs report could 0:05:48.160 --> 0:05:50.120 be even more important. All right, Let's get to it, though, 0:05:50.160 --> 0:05:53.240 because someone who sees a lot in terms of what 0:05:53.440 --> 0:05:56.160 is going on in the labor force real time, especially 0:05:56.200 --> 0:05:59.560 when it comes to millennials and Gen z uh individuals. 0:05:59.640 --> 0:06:02.120 Let's bring and Katherine Minshew. She's CEO, co founder of 0:06:02.160 --> 0:06:05.119 the job placement career platform US. She's on the phone 0:06:05.160 --> 0:06:07.600 in New York City. Catherine, great to have you here. 0:06:07.640 --> 0:06:10.480 How are you. I'm doing great, Thank you so much 0:06:10.480 --> 0:06:12.240 for having me. So how do you see the labor 0:06:12.279 --> 0:06:14.400 market based on what you are seeing the type of 0:06:14.440 --> 0:06:17.480 activity uh and volume that's going on in your on 0:06:17.520 --> 0:06:20.760 your platform. You know, as you mentioned, it was a 0:06:20.839 --> 0:06:24.440 mixed draw reports with both the payroll increasing by a 0:06:24.480 --> 0:06:27.720 smaller percentage than forecast, but that dropping the unemployment rate 0:06:27.760 --> 0:06:30.400 to four point two. And I think, frankly, it's not 0:06:30.480 --> 0:06:33.280 a huge surprise, right there are a lot of contradictory 0:06:33.320 --> 0:06:36.919 trends in the economy right now. So I think that 0:06:36.920 --> 0:06:40.080 that this was broadly as as expected by at least 0:06:40.120 --> 0:06:41.480 a lot of the folks in my corner of the 0:06:41.520 --> 0:06:44.280 labor market. That's so interesting because it wasn't expected by economists. 0:06:44.279 --> 0:06:47.479 We heard from Carl Rica Donna that the thousand number 0:06:47.520 --> 0:06:49.200 that we got, that headline number that we got in 0:06:49.240 --> 0:06:52.320 the change in non farm payrolls earlier today, that was 0:06:52.360 --> 0:06:55.680 lower than even the lowest number that came from one 0:06:55.720 --> 0:06:59.520 of the analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. That's fair. That's fair. 0:06:59.560 --> 0:07:01.280 I do think it was a little bit under predictions. 0:07:01.320 --> 0:07:04.160 But I think first of all, we did see some 0:07:04.240 --> 0:07:08.919 additional jobs added to previous hollies in the September and October, 0:07:09.000 --> 0:07:11.160 which takes away a little bit of that sting. And 0:07:11.200 --> 0:07:13.560 what we are seeing is that people who entered the 0:07:13.640 --> 0:07:16.720 labor force in November, um, they were hired really quickly. 0:07:16.920 --> 0:07:19.760 And so I think we have certain industries and sectors 0:07:19.960 --> 0:07:24.360 where there's whitehawk competition for talent. We're seeing that in technology, 0:07:24.400 --> 0:07:27.720 in warehousing and anything related to e commerce, and then 0:07:27.760 --> 0:07:31.000 obviously others that that are really struggling to add jobs 0:07:31.040 --> 0:07:35.200 and struggling to hire, so hospitality, travel, leisure, and even 0:07:35.240 --> 0:07:37.800 frankly retail as I think a lot of a lot 0:07:37.840 --> 0:07:40.440 of shopping moves online. Hey, Katherine, you mentioned when we 0:07:40.600 --> 0:07:42.640 just started going a lot of contradictory trends in the 0:07:42.640 --> 0:07:44.480 economy right now. How do you what do you see 0:07:44.480 --> 0:07:48.640 as contradictory in particular? Well, I think that we're seeing 0:07:48.720 --> 0:07:52.120 firstly that a lot of newer entrants into the workforce, 0:07:52.120 --> 0:07:56.160 and particularly Gen Z and millennial job seekers, um, you know, 0:07:56.280 --> 0:07:59.320 they entered in many cases they've just come out of 0:07:59.360 --> 0:08:03.440 this really tough employment market. U was a really hard 0:08:03.480 --> 0:08:06.280 time for a lot of a lot of workers of 0:08:06.360 --> 0:08:09.680 all types frankly, to get a job, to to stay employed. 0:08:09.960 --> 0:08:12.880 But at the same time, people are much more choosy 0:08:13.000 --> 0:08:15.280 right now, and so we're seeing, you know, spikes in 0:08:16.200 --> 0:08:18.960 worker pay. We're seeing a lot of people choose to 0:08:18.960 --> 0:08:22.600 opt out of the workforce unless they find a job 0:08:22.680 --> 0:08:25.760 or an employer that meets certain criteria. So I think 0:08:25.760 --> 0:08:30.360 we're seeing, um, you know, both big differences within industries 0:08:30.360 --> 0:08:33.360 and sectors of the economy, but also um some some 0:08:33.480 --> 0:08:37.800 very contradictory data coming out of again, particularly the demographic 0:08:37.840 --> 0:08:39.199 that I spend most of my time with, which is 0:08:39.280 --> 0:08:41.600 gen V and millennial. There's a lot of indications they're 0:08:41.640 --> 0:08:44.760 looking for more than compensation, but also at the same time, 0:08:45.080 --> 0:08:47.360 you know, salary remains important. A lot of things in 0:08:47.400 --> 0:08:49.880 the data that I think reflects the fact that there's 0:08:49.880 --> 0:08:52.520 a lot of uncertainty in the economy right now. What 0:08:52.600 --> 0:08:55.600 were the similarities that you saw in today's jobs report 0:08:55.800 --> 0:08:58.880 that you also find in your work and on the 0:08:59.280 --> 0:09:03.280 on the platform the muse. Yeah, Well, um, I think 0:09:03.320 --> 0:09:07.680 the fact that the unemployment rate is so low, as 0:09:07.760 --> 0:09:11.120 certainly reflected in what we see on the mus um. 0:09:11.240 --> 0:09:14.320 You know, we have so many employers that just literally 0:09:14.480 --> 0:09:18.280 cannot fill their roles fast enough and it's causing major 0:09:18.320 --> 0:09:20.520 disruption to their businesses. I'm sure you're hearing about it 0:09:20.520 --> 0:09:23.360 from other guests. But some of that is because some 0:09:23.440 --> 0:09:26.360 workers are opting out. Some of that is because workers 0:09:26.440 --> 0:09:29.480 are raising their their standards, like I mentioned, and so 0:09:29.840 --> 0:09:33.120 you know, we've also been surveying a lot of workers 0:09:33.160 --> 0:09:37.000 about what factors are they considering when they're thinking about 0:09:37.040 --> 0:09:38.960 whether to get back into the labor market, whether to 0:09:39.040 --> 0:09:42.600 change companies or change jobs, um, and people are flagging 0:09:42.640 --> 0:09:45.760 things like you know, they're looking for better person benefits 0:09:45.800 --> 0:09:48.040 than they had in the past. They are looking for 0:09:48.040 --> 0:09:51.600 companies that are committed to diversity, equity and inclusion. There's 0:09:51.600 --> 0:09:55.559 a lot of bursens on employers that weren't perhaps there too, 0:09:55.800 --> 0:09:57.800 you know, two years ago before the pandemic started in 0:09:57.800 --> 0:10:01.320 the same way you know, Um, Katherine, I've been doing 0:10:01.600 --> 0:10:04.880 a bunch of reporting and research on just the growth 0:10:05.040 --> 0:10:08.040 of entrepreneurship, people starting up their own business. We saw 0:10:08.080 --> 0:10:09.760 this coming out of the financial crisis. We're seeing it 0:10:09.800 --> 0:10:12.119 once again coming out of the pandemic. Women in particular 0:10:12.559 --> 0:10:17.160 are kind of I feel like, voting very clearly by saying, 0:10:17.160 --> 0:10:19.559 maybe we don't want to go to the traditional establishment 0:10:19.600 --> 0:10:23.120 stay in corporate America. We want the flexibility. You understand 0:10:23.200 --> 0:10:25.720 that you've started your own business, right and it's a 0:10:25.720 --> 0:10:27.480 lot of pressure, it's a lot of stress, but you 0:10:27.600 --> 0:10:30.679 do gain a lot of flexibility. What do you make 0:10:30.679 --> 0:10:33.480 of those trends and the significance that that maybe having 0:10:33.480 --> 0:10:37.559 on our labor environment right now? Absolutely, I think you're 0:10:37.559 --> 0:10:39.680 spot on. And in fact, when you look at some 0:10:39.760 --> 0:10:43.719 of the biggest technology companies that have have shaped our 0:10:43.760 --> 0:10:46.520 lives today, um, you know, a lot of them were 0:10:46.520 --> 0:10:49.839 started back post the financial crisis between two thousand and 0:10:49.840 --> 0:10:52.600 eight and two thousand ten. I think, uh, Uber, Airbnb, 0:10:52.679 --> 0:10:56.000 a number of household names, and so I'm I'm personally 0:10:56.080 --> 0:10:59.680 excited to see what next massive companies you know, we 0:10:59.760 --> 0:11:01.440 see started. And then you also have a lot of 0:11:01.440 --> 0:11:04.720 people that are not starting high growth Silicon Valley businesses, 0:11:04.960 --> 0:11:08.080 but are starting small businesses, are going freelance, and I 0:11:08.120 --> 0:11:10.640 think that you know, it is something that has become 0:11:10.720 --> 0:11:14.000 easier than it was in the past due to all 0:11:14.080 --> 0:11:17.120 of the different off the shelf products and services that 0:11:17.160 --> 0:11:21.240 are designed to support entrepreneurs, to support small business owners. Um. 0:11:21.040 --> 0:11:23.040 I I am not at all surprised that a lot 0:11:23.040 --> 0:11:26.040 of women looked at the way corporations responded to COVID 0:11:26.040 --> 0:11:29.319 and said, no, thanks, I'm going to set my own hours. Um. 0:11:29.360 --> 0:11:31.680 But you know, I do think some of those workers 0:11:32.000 --> 0:11:34.800 will re enter the more traditional labor force in the 0:11:34.840 --> 0:11:36.599 next few years. But but we will also see a 0:11:36.640 --> 0:11:38.360 lot of people who this was the push they needed 0:11:38.400 --> 0:11:41.120 to to get into entrepreneurship. And I think that's really 0:11:41.240 --> 0:11:43.880 I'm I think that's really great thing for the broader economy. Obviously, 0:11:43.880 --> 0:11:46.880 I'm clearly by it. No, but you understand it, you 0:11:46.920 --> 0:11:48.960 get it. We've often seen and this year alone too, 0:11:48.960 --> 0:11:51.880 we've seen a lot of female founded companies I p O. 0:11:51.960 --> 0:11:54.280 So that is sept thing tim that we've seen as well. Hey, Katherine, 0:11:54.280 --> 0:11:57.560 as as Americans have remained on the sidelines, how concerned 0:11:57.559 --> 0:11:59.640 are you and how concerned should the federal reserves be 0:11:59.720 --> 0:12:02.240 about scarring when it comes to this job market. The 0:12:02.280 --> 0:12:04.800 idea that people who are out the sidelines for a 0:12:04.840 --> 0:12:06.280 long period of time will have a lot of trouble 0:12:06.320 --> 0:12:10.920 returning to the job market. Yeah, that's a it's a 0:12:10.960 --> 0:12:14.040 it's a really big issue, and I think it's exacerbated 0:12:14.080 --> 0:12:18.640 by the fact that these skills most in demand by 0:12:18.679 --> 0:12:22.280 many employers today are not the ones that were taught 0:12:22.440 --> 0:12:25.320 or prioritized, you know, ten twenty years ago. You have 0:12:25.559 --> 0:12:30.560 incredible demand in a lot of digital technologies, data focused roles, 0:12:30.760 --> 0:12:33.280 UM and so I think that you know, as as 0:12:33.320 --> 0:12:37.079 a as a society, UM as as individual companies, I hear, 0:12:37.120 --> 0:12:40.240 I'm hearing retraining and reskilling. We talked about more and 0:12:40.280 --> 0:12:42.880 more because I do think that you have both just 0:12:42.960 --> 0:12:46.679 the natural scarring of people who have been out of 0:12:46.679 --> 0:12:48.840 the workforce for a while, but also the fact that 0:12:49.040 --> 0:12:52.880 some of the jargon and the skills that are most 0:12:52.880 --> 0:12:56.400 in demand change, and if you don't have programs and 0:12:56.720 --> 0:12:59.760 ways for people to to get that current again, I 0:12:59.760 --> 0:13:01.679 think you have the risk that a lot of people 0:13:01.679 --> 0:13:03.640 won't you won't be able to do it without support. 0:13:03.880 --> 0:13:05.600 All Right, we're gonna leave it there. Hey, Katherine, thank 0:13:05.600 --> 0:13:08.240 you so much. Great snapshot on what's going on, certainly 0:13:08.320 --> 0:13:12.240 among the younger generation when it comes to today's labor force. 0:13:12.240 --> 0:13:14.800 That's Katherine Minshew. She's founder and chief executive Officer of 0:13:14.800 --> 0:13:17.560 the News, joining us on the phone in New York City. 0:13:18.000 --> 0:13:21.600 You're listening to Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer and 0:13:21.679 --> 0:13:26.559 Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. Well, this week, 0:13:26.760 --> 0:13:29.680 we know, right, it's been all about the latest COVID variant. 0:13:29.720 --> 0:13:31.920 At least that's been one of our really main stories 0:13:31.960 --> 0:13:34.600 that certainly has impacted financial markets. In this week's issue 0:13:34.640 --> 0:13:37.840 of Bloomberg Business Week magazine Bloomberg, Cynthia Coon's notes that 0:13:38.160 --> 0:13:42.440 whether or not it's a game changer, Amikron is COVID's future, 0:13:42.520 --> 0:13:46.080 and Tim gotta say, timely story considering what we've seen, uh, 0:13:46.080 --> 0:13:47.640 and the spread of the latest variant. I mean, we've 0:13:47.640 --> 0:13:49.800 heard from Anthony Fauci, We've heard from President Biden this 0:13:49.800 --> 0:13:51.800 week about it. We're gonna hear from Dr Anthony Fauci 0:13:51.840 --> 0:13:53.760 again a little bit later on. Let's hear from Cynthia 0:13:53.800 --> 0:13:56.320 Coon's US healthcare reporter at Bloomberg News. She joins us 0:13:56.360 --> 0:13:58.000 on the phone from New Jersey, as well as Joel Webber, 0:13:58.120 --> 0:13:59.960 editor at Bloomberg Business Week. He joins us on the 0:14:00.040 --> 0:14:02.400 access line from Brooklyn. Joel, I want to toss it 0:14:02.440 --> 0:14:05.040 over to you. Because if there's one theme that Caroline 0:14:05.040 --> 0:14:07.520 I have experienced when speaking with with doctors and experts 0:14:07.520 --> 0:14:10.760 throughout the week about the omicron variant, it's weight and see, 0:14:11.000 --> 0:14:15.080 we just don't know yet. The data just aren't there. Yeah, 0:14:15.120 --> 0:14:17.400 that's right, and and I'll say that that goes for 0:14:17.640 --> 0:14:19.680 reporting as well, because all of our reporting is going 0:14:19.680 --> 0:14:21.960 to be based on this. So so what we can do, 0:14:22.040 --> 0:14:24.560 though is talk to as many people as we can 0:14:24.800 --> 0:14:28.280 in farmland and without about sort of what their approach 0:14:28.360 --> 0:14:30.000 is going to be. And that's sort of where where 0:14:30.040 --> 0:14:32.320 Cynthia came in here is like, look, we've actually seen 0:14:32.640 --> 0:14:36.320 seen this game before. We've had multiple variants already, and 0:14:36.400 --> 0:14:39.960 to some extent that is really going to inform how 0:14:40.080 --> 0:14:43.880 pharma approaches it and everyone else as well. But until 0:14:43.920 --> 0:14:46.360 we know a little bit more about this thing and 0:14:46.360 --> 0:14:48.920 in the data, I think everything is a little premature. 0:14:49.320 --> 0:14:51.960 But Cynthia, based on what we do know, what can 0:14:52.000 --> 0:14:56.320 we expect. So the great news is that pharma companies 0:14:56.360 --> 0:15:00.240 can move very quickly in actually assessing whether not the 0:15:00.280 --> 0:15:02.920 vaccines that we have taken are going to be effective 0:15:03.040 --> 0:15:06.080 against O macron. And that's partly because of the work 0:15:06.120 --> 0:15:07.880 they can do in the lab. They can actually take 0:15:07.920 --> 0:15:11.640 a look at how the UM variant performs against the 0:15:11.720 --> 0:15:14.200 vaccine in the lab, and that's that's data we could 0:15:14.200 --> 0:15:17.200 have soon. That data they've said within weeks, and they 0:15:17.280 --> 0:15:19.920 started that work right away. And the reason they were 0:15:19.920 --> 0:15:21.800 able to start that work right away is that they've 0:15:21.840 --> 0:15:24.840 done this fire drill with beta with the South Africa 0:15:24.920 --> 0:15:28.440 variant that was identified in South Africa prior to this one. UM. 0:15:28.480 --> 0:15:31.160 They also did it with Delta, and they started making 0:15:31.160 --> 0:15:35.400 boosters that were targeted for those variants previously, and so 0:15:35.520 --> 0:15:40.080 those actual tailored vaccines are also partly how they know 0:15:40.160 --> 0:15:43.000 what to do in this instance. And actually there are 0:15:43.040 --> 0:15:47.160 some overlaps between O macron and beta that allow Maderna, 0:15:47.240 --> 0:15:49.000 for example, is going to are going to test their 0:15:49.240 --> 0:15:52.680 beta targeted vaccine as well to see if it works 0:15:52.680 --> 0:15:55.280 against this mutation of the virus. But of course the 0:15:55.320 --> 0:15:59.560 reason everyone's saying wait weeks, if not longer, to see 0:15:59.560 --> 0:16:03.480 how this actually developed is that we've had scares before. 0:16:03.520 --> 0:16:06.080 And if you think back to Delta, I mean, Delta 0:16:06.160 --> 0:16:08.440 took over, but it didn't take over as quickly as 0:16:08.480 --> 0:16:11.120 we might be remembering in retrospect. It actually became a 0:16:11.200 --> 0:16:13.920 vary enough concern in India, and then it took over 0:16:13.960 --> 0:16:16.000 in India, and then it took over in the UK, 0:16:16.160 --> 0:16:18.520 and then it came here. So it could actually take 0:16:18.600 --> 0:16:21.120 some time, and it has to be a mutation that's 0:16:21.120 --> 0:16:24.160 strong enough to overtake delta, and so we don't know 0:16:24.240 --> 0:16:25.880 any of that yet. So I think what a lot 0:16:25.880 --> 0:16:28.280 of people are trying to glean from a case here, 0:16:28.400 --> 0:16:31.600 a case there is very premature because it's really a 0:16:31.600 --> 0:16:34.040 matter of seeing help performs as a virus and a 0:16:34.040 --> 0:16:36.120 lot of people and that's just going to take more 0:16:36.200 --> 0:16:38.280 time than I think. You know, people don't want to wait, 0:16:38.520 --> 0:16:41.920 but unfortunately that's why people keep scientists keep saying you 0:16:41.920 --> 0:16:43.400 have to wait. Well, Cynthia, I want to drill in 0:16:43.440 --> 0:16:47.000 on the idea that the large pharmaceutical companies specifically Fazer 0:16:47.040 --> 0:16:50.320 and Maderna are working quickly to create vaccines or understand 0:16:50.360 --> 0:16:52.320 the effect that these are having on VEX on the 0:16:52.400 --> 0:16:54.960 vaccines that exist right now. How much of this is 0:16:55.000 --> 0:16:58.080 about the fact that these are m R and A platforms, 0:16:58.120 --> 0:17:01.320 not necessarily new technology, but new technology for vaccine delivery 0:17:01.440 --> 0:17:04.480 that we've seen that you really play out over the 0:17:04.520 --> 0:17:08.280 last year Yeah, that's the really cool part about having 0:17:08.400 --> 0:17:11.240 MR and A vaccines. They're able to sort of plug 0:17:11.280 --> 0:17:13.399 in the sequence once they have it. They don't have 0:17:13.400 --> 0:17:16.240 to grow the virus, which can take weeks or months, 0:17:16.240 --> 0:17:18.640 and so in order to actually make a tailor made 0:17:18.720 --> 0:17:22.680 vaccine takes much less time. Production is much faster. They 0:17:22.680 --> 0:17:25.199 have facilities now ready all over the world, so if 0:17:25.200 --> 0:17:27.440 they're going to have to switch to a new version 0:17:27.440 --> 0:17:29.639 of the vaccine, they can do it in such a 0:17:29.680 --> 0:17:32.520 wide scale in much more quickly than if it was 0:17:32.520 --> 0:17:35.560 a traditional vaccine. Like flu vaccines can take six to 0:17:35.640 --> 0:17:38.960 nine months to make from identifying what streams of the 0:17:38.960 --> 0:17:41.399 flu you're going after to actually having a vaccine and 0:17:41.440 --> 0:17:44.159 put in somebody's arm. And this is just much faster 0:17:44.240 --> 0:17:47.040 than that. Feiser has said a hundred days. It's just 0:17:47.119 --> 0:17:48.879 remarkable how fast they'll be able to do this. But 0:17:48.920 --> 0:17:51.640 of course, you know, it's it's a matter of not 0:17:51.720 --> 0:17:54.840 just making it, but also just knowing that you need 0:17:54.840 --> 0:17:57.920 it and so and also then also how do they 0:17:58.280 --> 0:18:01.120 industry make the pivot between they a vaccine we have now, 0:18:01.280 --> 0:18:04.400 does a hiller made vaccine become a booster, doesn't replace 0:18:04.480 --> 0:18:07.040 the vaccine we have now? These are big questions that 0:18:07.080 --> 0:18:10.159 need to be answered if this is deemed and necessity. 0:18:10.280 --> 0:18:12.840 So we're still really far away from that. But I 0:18:12.880 --> 0:18:15.439 think the mutation alone highlights the fact that this is 0:18:15.520 --> 0:18:18.800 going in the direction of the sort of flu vaccine model, 0:18:18.840 --> 0:18:22.240 and we probably are going to need somewhat different vaccines 0:18:22.680 --> 0:18:25.639 on a regular basis if coronavirus is going to linger 0:18:25.720 --> 0:18:28.439 like this in the population. Cynthia. Wonder do we finally 0:18:28.520 --> 0:18:31.400 have as everybody finally gotten a memo that hey, folks, uh, 0:18:31.440 --> 0:18:33.840 this was a really bad pandemic. We're probably gonna get more, 0:18:33.920 --> 0:18:35.800 and we got to start preparing for things. So even 0:18:35.840 --> 0:18:38.119 if a micron doesn't turn out to be and you 0:18:38.160 --> 0:18:40.159 write about this in your story, doesn't turn out to 0:18:40.200 --> 0:18:43.399 be maybe as problematic which fingers cross legs crossed, everything 0:18:43.440 --> 0:18:46.880 cross that it it doesn't you know, we are developing 0:18:46.960 --> 0:18:50.439 method methodologies, approaches, tools that will help us in the 0:18:50.480 --> 0:18:52.840 future and that will be probably needed in the future. 0:18:54.320 --> 0:18:57.440 I hope that's the case. I certainly anecdotally have heard 0:18:57.440 --> 0:18:59.840 a lot there's a lot of demand for booster shots now, 0:19:00.000 --> 0:19:03.119 which is great because it's all we have and boosting 0:19:03.160 --> 0:19:07.640 immunity to what's circulating the community is still really important 0:19:07.640 --> 0:19:10.560 public health tool, but we still do have a substantial 0:19:10.560 --> 0:19:13.760 amount of vaccine hesitancy in this country. And I've heard 0:19:13.760 --> 0:19:16.000 from some experts that we really need to focus on 0:19:16.040 --> 0:19:19.440 those completely unvaccinated populations because what we have seen from 0:19:19.440 --> 0:19:22.080 O Macron is that it can infect someone who's already 0:19:22.080 --> 0:19:24.600 had coronavirus, and we have parts of this country where 0:19:24.640 --> 0:19:28.440 vaccination rates are quite low and delta ripped through those populations, 0:19:28.480 --> 0:19:31.439 and those people might be more vulnerable to OH macron. 0:19:31.480 --> 0:19:34.200 If that's how this plays out, then you know how 0:19:34.280 --> 0:19:36.119 they gotten a vaccine. And I think there is some 0:19:36.200 --> 0:19:39.200 perception in some parts of the population that having had 0:19:39.240 --> 0:19:42.439 COVID is how you build your immunity, and unfortunately, with 0:19:42.480 --> 0:19:44.720 this virus, that just turned out to be the case. 0:19:45.320 --> 0:19:48.280 So I think there are some encouraging signs, and the 0:19:48.320 --> 0:19:51.719 booster campaign hopefully we'll continue to gain steam. But I 0:19:51.760 --> 0:19:54.920 think really focusing as a public health community on that 0:19:55.119 --> 0:19:58.440