Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Karl Masser and I'm
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Speaker 1: search Bloomberg Clobal News. All right, let's get to it
Speaker 1: and the market Driver's report. Let's set the business week agenda, folks,
Speaker 1: let's go in on. Kreta Gupta in the house, Bloomberg
Speaker 1: Markets correspondent here at Bloomberg News. Carlberg and Donna also
Speaker 1: in the house. Welcome, Welcome back, chief industry economist at
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Intelligence, both in our interactive broker studio. Bring out
Speaker 1: some wine and we'll have a party. But I don't
Speaker 1: know should we be partying. Well, Carl, I'm going to
Speaker 1: start with you, because let's start there. The jobs report.
Speaker 1: I felt like really really smart people were like, m
Speaker 1: some good news, some questionable news. Remember used to be
Speaker 1: a really strong jobs report back a long long time ago,
Speaker 1: disappointing result today this was way below even the most
Speaker 1: pessimistic forecast is submitted to Bloomberg. So, you know, in
Speaker 1: a month when the case count was declining and we
Speaker 1: thought that folks were becoming more comfortable with returning to
Speaker 1: the labor force and taking jobs and spending and whatnot,
Speaker 1: that wasn't the case. And and so what I'm concerned
Speaker 1: is this looks a lot like November of last year
Speaker 1: when we had a big disappointment on jobs. Then over
Speaker 1: the course of November December the case counts skyrocketed. Sounds familiar, right,
Speaker 1: and then December was a real bust for payrolls. And
Speaker 1: so you know, this creates bad optics for a FIT
Speaker 1: that's trying to accelerate the taper. At the December meeting,
Speaker 1: when the case counts rising, jobs are disappointing, we do
Speaker 1: because it's not all bad news. There was some There
Speaker 1: were there were some silver linings in there. If you
Speaker 1: call labor force participation running at the same level it
Speaker 1: did when Jimmy Carter was president. I'm sure that's good news,
Speaker 1: but there's a down road to come back here, and
Speaker 1: you're down a downer based on what demographic group you
Speaker 1: fall into by age Cohort. So if we look at
Speaker 1: the very young, the new entrance to the labor force,
Speaker 1: you know, young kids coming out of college, in high
Speaker 1: school and whatnot. Um, that has basically fully rebounded. If
Speaker 1: we look at prime working age population, it's coming back,
Speaker 1: but it's still got a ways to go. And if
Speaker 1: we look at kind of a fifty five plus type
Speaker 1: of crowd, and I well, I'll just stop there, are
Speaker 1: you looking? Know? I was gonna say, and I happened
Speaker 1: to be looking at you, But I'm not tying you
Speaker 1: into the plus crowd. We know that that you know,
Speaker 1: we know how old you are and much younger than
Speaker 1: we but you know, fifty five plus crowd, it's it's
Speaker 1: how you feel. It's how old you feel, Carol Um.
Speaker 1: If we look at that demographic, very very little recovery whatsoever.
Speaker 1: And so the problem is is it the resignation or
Speaker 1: that folks still afraid to step off of the sidelines
Speaker 1: into the labor market. A big concern of the FED
Speaker 1: is the scarring that could potentially happen to the economy.
Speaker 1: And when you look at both prime age and older workers,
Speaker 1: they're not coming back. And if we look at it
Speaker 1: slightly different way, if we go go industry by industry
Speaker 1: by industry, almost every single sector is still operating below February.
Speaker 1: So this is not just at leisure and hospitality story.
Speaker 1: This is broad based across the economy. Questions there, heretod
Speaker 1: to come on in here, and how is this manifesting
Speaker 1: in today's trade? Yeah, well, first off, I'm just gonna
Speaker 1: add one eco thing, even though I'm not the eco
Speaker 1: person in the room here, but November is supposed to
Speaker 1: be historically a very strong month for jobs, right Carl,
Speaker 1: And and to see a miss on this particular set
Speaker 1: of months data is extra bad. In addition to the
Speaker 1: miss um why the market selling off that it might
Speaker 1: be partially because the payrolls report, although it's worth mentioning
Speaker 1: when the headlines did drop, the initial reaction was the
Speaker 1: opposite of what you're seeing right now. You saw features higher,
Speaker 1: you saw the stock market open, all sectors in the
Speaker 1: green bond yields were dipping, and then you saw the
Speaker 1: sell off as the market open so a lot of
Speaker 1: this is tech driven, a lot of this is just
Speaker 1: pulling cash off the table. But remember it is Friday.
Speaker 1: Volume is super low. This looks a lot like what
Speaker 1: we saw last Friday, where people just aren't at their
Speaker 1: desk and they're de risking before the weekend. Huh. Jobs
Speaker 1: came out at eight thirty, the market turned around at
Speaker 1: nine thirty, right, So you can see that it wasn't
Speaker 1: really the job's catalyst necessarily that was driving the narrative
Speaker 1: in the markets. That's so, are you saying COVID or what. Well,
Speaker 1: it really made the turn when President Biden had his
Speaker 1: press conference and so I mean he was coughing in
Speaker 1: Hill and the you know, the press didn't care about
Speaker 1: the jobs report and cared more about his health and whatnot.
Speaker 1: And I'm not saying that drove it, but you know,
Speaker 1: there was you know, the timing there. So you know,
Speaker 1: I haven't had the time to review the full press
Speaker 1: conference yet. Maybe he said some things that the markets
Speaker 1: didn't like as well. We should know too that we
Speaker 1: did hear from the President's physician just does not do
Speaker 1: doesn't have the flu, he said. The physicians said, this
Speaker 1: is what's referred to colloquially as a frog and once throat,
Speaker 1: he's taking over the counter medication. This is Bloomberg Business
Speaker 1: Week with Carol Messer and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stenovic
Speaker 1: on Bloomberg Radio. We've been talking about it, certainly one
Speaker 1: of our top stories on this Friday. Job's Friday. US
Speaker 1: job growth registering its smallest game this year, while the
Speaker 1: unemployment rate fell by more than fourcast to four point
Speaker 1: two percent. That feels pretty low offering, though a mixed
Speaker 1: picture that may nevertheless push the FED to quicken the
Speaker 1: wind down a pandemic stimulus. And this is what we're
Speaker 1: all trying to figure out right now, Really, what does
Speaker 1: this all mean when it comes to monetary policy in
Speaker 1: the US. It's also happening at a time when that
Speaker 1: survey didn't even cover the first the part of the
Speaker 1: month where we even knew what the word on the
Speaker 1: chron met exactly, and you do wonder how that might
Speaker 1: impact things, which is why the next jobs report could
Speaker 1: be even more important. All right, Let's get to it, though,
Speaker 1: because someone who sees a lot in terms of what
Speaker 1: is going on in the labor force real time, especially
Speaker 1: when it comes to millennials and Gen z uh individuals.
Speaker 1: Let's bring and Katherine Minshew. She's CEO, co founder of
Speaker 1: the job placement career platform US. She's on the phone
Speaker 1: in New York City. Catherine, great to have you here.
Speaker 1: How are you. I'm doing great, Thank you so much
Speaker 1: for having me. So how do you see the labor
Speaker 1: market based on what you are seeing the type of
Speaker 1: activity uh and volume that's going on in your on
Speaker 1: your platform. You know, as you mentioned, it was a
Speaker 1: mixed draw reports with both the payroll increasing by a
Speaker 1: smaller percentage than forecast, but that dropping the unemployment rate
Speaker 1: to four point two. And I think, frankly, it's not
Speaker 1: a huge surprise, right there are a lot of contradictory
Speaker 1: trends in the economy right now. So I think that
Speaker 1: that this was broadly as as expected by at least
Speaker 1: a lot of the folks in my corner of the
Speaker 1: labor market. That's so interesting because it wasn't expected by economists.
Speaker 1: We heard from Carl Rica Donna that the thousand number
Speaker 1: that we got, that headline number that we got in
Speaker 1: the change in non farm payrolls earlier today, that was
Speaker 1: lower than even the lowest number that came from one
Speaker 1: of the analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. That's fair. That's fair.
Speaker 1: I do think it was a little bit under predictions.
Speaker 1: But I think first of all, we did see some
Speaker 1: additional jobs added to previous hollies in the September and October,
Speaker 1: which takes away a little bit of that sting. And
Speaker 1: what we are seeing is that people who entered the
Speaker 1: labor force in November, um, they were hired really quickly.
Speaker 1: And so I think we have certain industries and sectors
Speaker 1: where there's whitehawk competition for talent. We're seeing that in technology,
Speaker 1: in warehousing and anything related to e commerce, and then
Speaker 1: obviously others that that are really struggling to add jobs
Speaker 1: and struggling to hire, so hospitality, travel, leisure, and even
Speaker 1: frankly retail as I think a lot of a lot
Speaker 1: of shopping moves online. Hey, Katherine, you mentioned when we
Speaker 1: just started going a lot of contradictory trends in the
Speaker 1: economy right now. How do you what do you see
Speaker 1: as contradictory in particular? Well, I think that we're seeing
Speaker 1: firstly that a lot of newer entrants into the workforce,
Speaker 1: and particularly Gen Z and millennial job seekers, um, you know,
Speaker 1: they entered in many cases they've just come out of
Speaker 1: this really tough employment market. U was a really hard
Speaker 1: time for a lot of a lot of workers of
Speaker 1: all types frankly, to get a job, to to stay employed.
Speaker 1: But at the same time, people are much more choosy
Speaker 1: right now, and so we're seeing, you know, spikes in
Speaker 1: worker pay. We're seeing a lot of people choose to
Speaker 1: opt out of the workforce unless they find a job
Speaker 1: or an employer that meets certain criteria. So I think
Speaker 1: we're seeing, um, you know, both big differences within industries
Speaker 1: and sectors of the economy, but also um some some
Speaker 1: very contradictory data coming out of again, particularly the demographic
Speaker 1: that I spend most of my time with, which is
Speaker 1: gen V and millennial. There's a lot of indications they're
Speaker 1: looking for more than compensation, but also at the same time,
Speaker 1: you know, salary remains important. A lot of things in
Speaker 1: the data that I think reflects the fact that there's
Speaker 1: a lot of uncertainty in the economy right now. What
Speaker 1: were the similarities that you saw in today's jobs report
Speaker 1: that you also find in your work and on the
Speaker 1: on the platform the muse. Yeah, Well, um, I think
Speaker 1: the fact that the unemployment rate is so low, as
Speaker 1: certainly reflected in what we see on the mus um.
Speaker 1: You know, we have so many employers that just literally
Speaker 1: cannot fill their roles fast enough and it's causing major
Speaker 1: disruption to their businesses. I'm sure you're hearing about it
Speaker 1: from other guests. But some of that is because some
Speaker 1: workers are opting out. Some of that is because workers
Speaker 1: are raising their their standards, like I mentioned, and so
Speaker 1: you know, we've also been surveying a lot of workers
Speaker 1: about what factors are they considering when they're thinking about
Speaker 1: whether to get back into the labor market, whether to
Speaker 1: change companies or change jobs, um, and people are flagging
Speaker 1: things like you know, they're looking for better person benefits
Speaker 1: than they had in the past. They are looking for
Speaker 1: companies that are committed to diversity, equity and inclusion. There's
Speaker 1: a lot of bursens on employers that weren't perhaps there too,
Speaker 1: you know, two years ago before the pandemic started in
Speaker 1: the same way you know, Um, Katherine, I've been doing
Speaker 1: a bunch of reporting and research on just the growth
Speaker 1: of entrepreneurship, people starting up their own business. We saw
Speaker 1: this coming out of the financial crisis. We're seeing it
Speaker 1: once again coming out of the pandemic. Women in particular
Speaker 1: are kind of I feel like, voting very clearly by saying,
Speaker 1: maybe we don't want to go to the traditional establishment
Speaker 1: stay in corporate America. We want the flexibility. You understand
Speaker 1: that you've started your own business, right and it's a
Speaker 1: lot of pressure, it's a lot of stress, but you
Speaker 1: do gain a lot of flexibility. What do you make
Speaker 1: of those trends and the significance that that maybe having
Speaker 1: on our labor environment right now? Absolutely, I think you're
Speaker 1: spot on. And in fact, when you look at some
Speaker 1: of the biggest technology companies that have have shaped our
Speaker 1: lives today, um, you know, a lot of them were
Speaker 1: started back post the financial crisis between two thousand and
Speaker 1: eight and two thousand ten. I think, uh, Uber, Airbnb,
Speaker 1: a number of household names, and so I'm I'm personally
Speaker 1: excited to see what next massive companies you know, we
Speaker 1: see started. And then you also have a lot of
Speaker 1: people that are not starting high growth Silicon Valley businesses,
Speaker 1: but are starting small businesses, are going freelance, and I
Speaker 1: think that you know, it is something that has become
Speaker 1: easier than it was in the past due to all
Speaker 1: of the different off the shelf products and services that
Speaker 1: are designed to support entrepreneurs, to support small business owners. Um.
Speaker 1: I I am not at all surprised that a lot
Speaker 1: of women looked at the way corporations responded to COVID
Speaker 1: and said, no, thanks, I'm going to set my own hours. Um.
Speaker 1: But you know, I do think some of those workers
Speaker 1: will re enter the more traditional labor force in the
Speaker 1: next few years. But but we will also see a
Speaker 1: lot of people who this was the push they needed
Speaker 1: to to get into entrepreneurship. And I think that's really
Speaker 1: I'm I think that's really great thing for the broader economy. Obviously,
Speaker 1: I'm clearly by it. No, but you understand it, you
Speaker 1: get it. We've often seen and this year alone too,
Speaker 1: we've seen a lot of female founded companies I p O.
Speaker 1: So that is sept thing tim that we've seen as well. Hey, Katherine,
Speaker 1: as as Americans have remained on the sidelines, how concerned
Speaker 1: are you and how concerned should the federal reserves be
Speaker 1: about scarring when it comes to this job market. The
Speaker 1: idea that people who are out the sidelines for a
Speaker 1: long period of time will have a lot of trouble
Speaker 1: returning to the job market. Yeah, that's a it's a
Speaker 1: it's a really big issue, and I think it's exacerbated
Speaker 1: by the fact that these skills most in demand by
Speaker 1: many employers today are not the ones that were taught
Speaker 1: or prioritized, you know, ten twenty years ago. You have
Speaker 1: incredible demand in a lot of digital technologies, data focused roles,
Speaker 1: UM and so I think that you know, as as
Speaker 1: a as a society, UM as as individual companies, I hear,
Speaker 1: I'm hearing retraining and reskilling. We talked about more and
Speaker 1: more because I do think that you have both just
Speaker 1: the natural scarring of people who have been out of
Speaker 1: the workforce for a while, but also the fact that
Speaker 1: some of the jargon and the skills that are most
Speaker 1: in demand change, and if you don't have programs and
Speaker 1: ways for people to to get that current again, I
Speaker 1: think you have the risk that a lot of people
Speaker 1: won't you won't be able to do it without support.
Speaker 1: All Right, we're gonna leave it there. Hey, Katherine, thank
Speaker 1: you so much. Great snapshot on what's going on, certainly
Speaker 1: among the younger generation when it comes to today's labor force.
Speaker 1: That's Katherine Minshew. She's founder and chief executive Officer of
Speaker 1: the News, joining us on the phone in New York City.
Speaker 1: You're listening to Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer and
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. Well, this week,
Speaker 1: we know, right, it's been all about the latest COVID variant.
Speaker 1: At least that's been one of our really main stories
Speaker 1: that certainly has impacted financial markets. In this week's issue
Speaker 1: of Bloomberg Business Week magazine Bloomberg, Cynthia Coon's notes that
Speaker 1: whether or not it's a game changer, Amikron is COVID's future,
Speaker 1: and Tim gotta say, timely story considering what we've seen, uh,
Speaker 1: and the spread of the latest variant. I mean, we've
Speaker 1: heard from Anthony Fauci, We've heard from President Biden this
Speaker 1: week about it. We're gonna hear from Dr Anthony Fauci
Speaker 1: again a little bit later on. Let's hear from Cynthia
Speaker 1: Coon's US healthcare reporter at Bloomberg News. She joins us
Speaker 1: on the phone from New Jersey, as well as Joel Webber,
Speaker 1: editor at Bloomberg Business Week. He joins us on the
Speaker 1: access line from Brooklyn. Joel, I want to toss it
Speaker 1: over to you. Because if there's one theme that Caroline
Speaker 1: I have experienced when speaking with with doctors and experts
Speaker 1: throughout the week about the omicron variant, it's weight and see,
Speaker 1: we just don't know yet. The data just aren't there. Yeah,
Speaker 1: that's right, and and I'll say that that goes for
Speaker 1: reporting as well, because all of our reporting is going
Speaker 1: to be based on this. So so what we can do,
Speaker 1: though is talk to as many people as we can
Speaker 1: in farmland and without about sort of what their approach
Speaker 1: is going to be. And that's sort of where where
Speaker 1: Cynthia came in here is like, look, we've actually seen
Speaker 1: seen this game before. We've had multiple variants already, and
Speaker 1: to some extent that is really going to inform how
Speaker 1: pharma approaches it and everyone else as well. But until
Speaker 1: we know a little bit more about this thing and
Speaker 1: in the data, I think everything is a little premature.
Speaker 1: But Cynthia, based on what we do know, what can
Speaker 1: we expect. So the great news is that pharma companies
Speaker 1: can move very quickly in actually assessing whether not the
Speaker 1: vaccines that we have taken are going to be effective
Speaker 1: against O macron. And that's partly because of the work
Speaker 1: they can do in the lab. They can actually take
Speaker 1: a look at how the UM variant performs against the
Speaker 1: vaccine in the lab, and that's that's data we could
Speaker 1: have soon. That data they've said within weeks, and they
Speaker 1: started that work right away. And the reason they were
Speaker 1: able to start that work right away is that they've
Speaker 1: done this fire drill with beta with the South Africa
Speaker 1: variant that was identified in South Africa prior to this one. UM.
Speaker 1: They also did it with Delta, and they started making
Speaker 1: boosters that were targeted for those variants previously, and so
Speaker 1: those actual tailored vaccines are also partly how they know
Speaker 1: what to do in this instance. And actually there are
Speaker 1: some overlaps between O macron and beta that allow Maderna,
Speaker 1: for example, is going to are going to test their
Speaker 1: beta targeted vaccine as well to see if it works
Speaker 1: against this mutation of the virus. But of course the
Speaker 1: reason everyone's saying wait weeks, if not longer, to see
Speaker 1: how this actually developed is that we've had scares before.
Speaker 1: And if you think back to Delta, I mean, Delta
Speaker 1: took over, but it didn't take over as quickly as
Speaker 1: we might be remembering in retrospect. It actually became a
Speaker 1: vary enough concern in India, and then it took over
Speaker 1: in India, and then it took over in the UK,
Speaker 1: and then it came here. So it could actually take
Speaker 1: some time, and it has to be a mutation that's
Speaker 1: strong enough to overtake delta, and so we don't know
Speaker 1: any of that yet. So I think what a lot
Speaker 1: of people are trying to glean from a case here,
Speaker 1: a case there is very premature because it's really a
Speaker 1: matter of seeing help performs as a virus and a
Speaker 1: lot of people and that's just going to take more
Speaker 1: time than I think. You know, people don't want to wait,
Speaker 1: but unfortunately that's why people keep scientists keep saying you
Speaker 1: have to wait. Well, Cynthia, I want to drill in
Speaker 1: on the idea that the large pharmaceutical companies specifically Fazer
Speaker 1: and Maderna are working quickly to create vaccines or understand
Speaker 1: the effect that these are having on VEX on the
Speaker 1: vaccines that exist right now. How much of this is
Speaker 1: about the fact that these are m R and A platforms,
Speaker 1: not necessarily new technology, but new technology for vaccine delivery
Speaker 1: that we've seen that you really play out over the
Speaker 1: last year Yeah, that's the really cool part about having
Speaker 1: MR and A vaccines. They're able to sort of plug
Speaker 1: in the sequence once they have it. They don't have
Speaker 1: to grow the virus, which can take weeks or months,
Speaker 1: and so in order to actually make a tailor made
Speaker 1: vaccine takes much less time. Production is much faster. They
Speaker 1: have facilities now ready all over the world, so if
Speaker 1: they're going to have to switch to a new version
Speaker 1: of the vaccine, they can do it in such a
Speaker 1: wide scale in much more quickly than if it was
Speaker 1: a traditional vaccine. Like flu vaccines can take six to
Speaker 1: nine months to make from identifying what streams of the
Speaker 1: flu you're going after to actually having a vaccine and
Speaker 1: put in somebody's arm. And this is just much faster
Speaker 1: than that. Feiser has said a hundred days. It's just
Speaker 1: remarkable how fast they'll be able to do this. But
Speaker 1: of course, you know, it's it's a matter of not
Speaker 1: just making it, but also just knowing that you need
Speaker 1: it and so and also then also how do they
Speaker 1: industry make the pivot between they a vaccine we have now,
Speaker 1: does a hiller made vaccine become a booster, doesn't replace
Speaker 1: the vaccine we have now? These are big questions that
Speaker 1: need to be answered if this is deemed and necessity.
Speaker 1: So we're still really far away from that. But I
Speaker 1: think the mutation alone highlights the fact that this is
Speaker 1: going in the direction of the sort of flu vaccine model,
Speaker 1: and we probably are going to need somewhat different vaccines
Speaker 1: on a regular basis if coronavirus is going to linger
Speaker 1: like this in the population. Cynthia. Wonder do we finally
Speaker 1: have as everybody finally gotten a memo that hey, folks, uh,
Speaker 1: this was a really bad pandemic. We're probably gonna get more,
Speaker 1: and we got to start preparing for things. So even
Speaker 1: if a micron doesn't turn out to be and you
Speaker 1: write about this in your story, doesn't turn out to
Speaker 1: be maybe as problematic which fingers cross legs crossed, everything
Speaker 1: cross that it it doesn't you know, we are developing
Speaker 1: method methodologies, approaches, tools that will help us in the
Speaker 1: future and that will be probably needed in the future.
Speaker 1: I hope that's the case. I certainly anecdotally have heard
Speaker 1: a lot there's a lot of demand for booster shots now,
Speaker 1: which is great because it's all we have and boosting
Speaker 1: immunity to what's circulating the community is still really important
Speaker 1: public health tool, but we still do have a substantial
Speaker 1: amount of vaccine hesitancy in this country. And I've heard
Speaker 1: from some experts that we really need to focus on
Speaker 1: those completely unvaccinated populations because what we have seen from
Speaker 1: O Macron is that it can infect someone who's already
Speaker 1: had coronavirus, and we have parts of this country where
Speaker 1: vaccination rates are quite low and delta ripped through those populations,
Speaker 1: and those people might be more vulnerable to OH macron.
Speaker 1: If that's how this plays out, then you know how
Speaker 1: they gotten a vaccine. And I think there is some
Speaker 1: perception in some parts of the population that having had
Speaker 1: COVID is how you build your immunity, and unfortunately, with
Speaker 1: this virus, that just turned out to be the case.
Speaker 1: So I think there are some encouraging signs, and the
Speaker 1: booster campaign hopefully we'll continue to gain steam. But I
Speaker 1: think really focusing as a public health community on that
Speaker 1: deeply entrenched unvaccinated population and trying to get to more
Speaker 1: people is really going to be the answer here. Okay,
Speaker 1: so what about the global conundrum? Because worldwide there are
Speaker 1: fewer people who have had access to m RNA vaccines
Speaker 1: than the other, than the other technologies. There's still like
Speaker 1: just millions upon millions of people who just don't have
Speaker 1: the vaccine. As long as those people remain unvaccinated, we're
Speaker 1: going to continue to see mutations that you know, there
Speaker 1: will be things long after o MA run, right, And
Speaker 1: since they just quick that twenty five seconds, sure. I
Speaker 1: think one of the really encouraging things so that we
Speaker 1: don't talking of about is that there are other vaccines
Speaker 1: coming down the pike that may not require the refrigeration
Speaker 1: of the mRNA vaccines. And that's really important to get
Speaker 1: vaccine into parts of the world that may not have
Speaker 1: the facilities to store the m MARNI vaccines. So I
Speaker 1: think we do need to keep an active eye on that.
Speaker 1: I do think there is a lot more vaccine coming
Speaker 1: and we do need to support that of the global community.
Speaker 1: The countries that can afford to donate need to donate more,
Speaker 1: and I think that's the only way we can get
Speaker 1: finished with this. You hear it some leaders constantly. It's
Speaker 1: a global endemic, folks, which needs global solutions and cooperation.
Speaker 1: Cynthia Coon's You're amazing US healthcare reporter at Bloomberg News
Speaker 1: on the phone from New Jersey, Joe Webber, have a
Speaker 1: great weekend, Editor Bloomberg Business Week on the access line
Speaker 1: from Brooklyn. Check out the magazine. It's all about the
Speaker 1: Bloomberg fifty. That story too in the magazine. This is
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and Bloomberg Quick Takes
Speaker 1: Tim Stanovic on Bloomberg Radio. Are you hosting to Boomberg
Speaker 1: Business to Week, Carol Master along with Tim Stanovic and
Speaker 1: our Interactive Broker studio streaming on YouTube. We mentioned some
Speaker 1: of the COVID headlines earlier. We are going to be
Speaker 1: talking our David Weston with Dr Anthony Fauci a little
Speaker 1: bit later on, so we'll get the latest on how
Speaker 1: he sees the amicronicron variant. In the meantimes, South Africa's
Speaker 1: daily number of confirmed COVID nineteen cases almost quadrupling since
Speaker 1: Tuesday as that variant spreads across the country, and I
Speaker 1: thanked him. I don't know if this is the latest.
Speaker 1: This is the latest. I think according to our measurement,
Speaker 1: at least six US states have on the KRON cases. Yeah,
Speaker 1: but I think it's safe to say, given what we
Speaker 1: know about this virus, that it's likely in other states
Speaker 1: as well. Carol, Let's get into it with Dr Ian Lustbader.
Speaker 1: He's clinical professor of medicine at n y U Langnes
Speaker 1: Medical Center. He joins us on the phone from New York.
Speaker 1: Dr Lustbader, how are you hey? Happy Friday? Guys, nothing
Speaker 1: to panic about. Do not do not overreact, please please
Speaker 1: go on why so? Uh? You know, in my opinion,
Speaker 1: I think people are really overreacting to the news on
Speaker 1: omarcron it uh. In my opinion, this is not going
Speaker 1: to have any material effect on the stock market, the economy,
Speaker 1: or likes in the United States unless we overreact with
Speaker 1: you know, lockdowns and travel bands and so forth, all
Speaker 1: of which really have been proven not effective. Um Kron
Speaker 1: really is behaving like many viruses. Most or many respiratory
Speaker 1: viruses evolve over time to become more contagious and really
Speaker 1: less lethal, less virulent, and they adapt that to outcompete,
Speaker 1: and that to me, it certainly looks like oh, Macron
Speaker 1: is going to outcompete Delta, both in people who have
Speaker 1: either been vaccinated or have had Delta, or who have
Speaker 1: had vaccines, and certainly in the unvaccinated. It's a very
Speaker 1: efficient virus. The incubation period is longer. It's about attended
Speaker 1: incubation period. It's more contagious and less lethal, which is
Speaker 1: really how viruses evolved. And overall, there are many people
Speaker 1: who feel this is actually good news because it probably
Speaker 1: will end the pandemic a little bit sooner, since I
Speaker 1: think it's going to outrun any of the vaccines that
Speaker 1: we're going to be able to either develop or try
Speaker 1: to distribute to the rest of the world. That's my
Speaker 1: take on it. Hey, listen um Dr Lesbia when you
Speaker 1: say probably end the pandemic sooner, because what more will
Speaker 1: create much more about global immunity. Is that what you're saying. Yes,
Speaker 1: I think more people this is highly contagious. I think
Speaker 1: it's as Tim says, it's probably in many places we
Speaker 1: have not really been testing for it. We don't, especially
Speaker 1: in the United States. You know, we do testing COVID swabs,
Speaker 1: but that doesn't routinely distinguish between any of the variants.
Speaker 1: So for all we know there are many places now
Speaker 1: that we're going to test for it. Uh that has it,
Speaker 1: But it doesn't really change the way you manage it.
Speaker 1: If anything, it seems like the disease is more mild
Speaker 1: um and this is really how viruses mutate. You know,
Speaker 1: they don't want to kill the host because then they
Speaker 1: die off. Now you know there are some you know,
Speaker 1: potential risks, meaning obviously there are a lot of mutations
Speaker 1: more uh, you know, more contagious. Could this be more
Speaker 1: like a common cold now where you get reinfection and
Speaker 1: kind of a seasonal variation and that it doesn't really
Speaker 1: go away. That is a possibility. So how should you're saying,
Speaker 1: don't panic? You say it's likely that it could overwhelmed,
Speaker 1: the world will spread quickly. Should we We've talked to
Speaker 1: you for We've talked to you for longer than I've
Speaker 1: worked here. Okay, that's what I'll say. And I'm wondering
Speaker 1: as long as the pandemic has been around, probably no
Speaker 1: even longer, even longer. And I'm wondering Dr Lesbader, if
Speaker 1: if if we should change our behavior in any way
Speaker 1: versus how we were behaving let's say, ten days ago
Speaker 1: before this entered our lexicon. So I don't think so,
Speaker 1: you know, I think prudence is always good. We certainly
Speaker 1: know to some degree many respiratory infections are improved with masks.
Speaker 1: They're not it's certainly somewhat helpful, don't uh, you know,
Speaker 1: push the envelope in very crowded, you know, areas. But
Speaker 1: I think, based on the way Delta behaved in the
Speaker 1: way this is going to behave, I think everyone sooner
Speaker 1: or later is going to be coming down with macron.
Speaker 1: The good news is it's going to be for most people,
Speaker 1: very mild. It's not going to be lethal. It doesn't
Speaker 1: seem to be killing more people or hospital atalizing more
Speaker 1: people are raising the death rate. Um how that will
Speaker 1: ultimately spill out when the rest of the world begins
Speaker 1: to get it is unclear. My sense is, like the
Speaker 1: common cold virus, the rhinoviruses, you know, people get rhinoviruses
Speaker 1: and common cold viruses probably several times a year. That
Speaker 1: maybe what happens with this, But it is not going
Speaker 1: to affect our life anymore than getting a cold would be.
Speaker 1: And you don't go into the office if you're coughing
Speaker 1: or sneezing. You don't want to infect other people. So
Speaker 1: I don't think it should affect us in any way
Speaker 1: more than that. Does that mean we're out of the
Speaker 1: woods of the possibility of a variant that is more
Speaker 1: virulent uh and also really contagious. Well, this has over
Speaker 1: thirty mutations uh, and probably arose in someone who is
Speaker 1: immuno compromised. You didn't really mount a good immune response.
Speaker 1: Could theoretically another variant occur. I think it's possible. This
Speaker 1: one seems pretty efficient, spreads easily, doesn't kill the host.
Speaker 1: Most people don't know they have it. It's really almost
Speaker 1: a very mild you know, caw for tickle in the
Speaker 1: back of your throat. It does cause some fatigue, so
Speaker 1: people after they're infect it often are somewhat fatigued. So
Speaker 1: I don't think we're going to get a son of
Speaker 1: omicron Darian. But I do think this is going to
Speaker 1: spread around the world. And I think the worst thing
Speaker 1: to do would be to panic or overreact when there's
Speaker 1: really no change that we need to do in a
Speaker 1: meaningful way. Dr less better, what changes your mind? Uh?
Speaker 1: You know. I think if we get more data that
Speaker 1: this is again changing or killing more people, are hospitalizing
Speaker 1: more people. Okay, that's a problem. I think by the
Speaker 1: time we get a vaccine, and it is reasonable to
Speaker 1: develop the vaccine, that's gonna be a couple of months.
Speaker 1: I think we're going to be so far behind the
Speaker 1: spread that it's not going to be meaningful. We do
Speaker 1: need to work on vaccines both flu For influenza, right,
Speaker 1: we do a yearly influenza trying to catch up with
Speaker 1: the old one. There can be universal vaccines that focus
Speaker 1: not on the spike protein which mutates all the time.
Speaker 1: We saw thirty mutations here just in the receptor binding
Speaker 1: area of the spike, but in other areas of the virus. Said,
Speaker 1: don't mutate as much that antibodies to that might be
Speaker 1: more effective in eliminating this on a more permanent basis.
Speaker 1: We still don't have a universal flu shot. You take
Speaker 1: one flu shot, you're good for you know, the rest
Speaker 1: of your life. We do a yearly flu shot. We
Speaker 1: may need something like that for COVID unless we develop
Speaker 1: a more universal antibrites to a different part of it.
Speaker 1: All right, kinda run. Hey, have a good weekend. Dr
Speaker 1: Ian last Beata, Clinical professor of medicine and why you
Speaker 1: land gown Medical Center. You're listening to Bloomberg Business Week
Speaker 1: with Carol Messer and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stinovic on
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio. All right, let's get to it with Crypto
Speaker 1: Content creator crypto investor himself in Armstrong. He's founder a
Speaker 1: bit Boy Crypto and the YouTube channel that goes by
Speaker 1: the same name, a self proclaimed crypto millionaire. Because you've
Speaker 1: got to show me that you are a crypto millionaire.
Speaker 1: Who jose this on the phone in Atlanta. Um, Ben,
Speaker 1: just having some fun. Good to have you here with
Speaker 1: tim of myself. How are you? Yeah? Doing doing great
Speaker 1: today despite the market drop today? UM, but yeah, doing great.
Speaker 1: Glad to talk to you. UM. Well, let's talk about
Speaker 1: what you know you have been doing in this world
Speaker 1: that you have developed your bit Boy Crypto YouTube channel. UM.
Speaker 1: Tell us what it tells us more broadly about crypto investing,
Speaker 1: who's getting into it and the interest that is out there. Yeah.
Speaker 1: So we have the largest crypto community, um and all
Speaker 1: the interwebs as well. So we've got almost six million
Speaker 1: total followers between YouTube, Twitter, TikTok, Instagram, a few other
Speaker 1: social channels. UM. And you know what we see is
Speaker 1: is we view ourselves as the mainstream channel where the
Speaker 1: bridge to get people into crypto. So a lot of
Speaker 1: times people will come to my community and come and
Speaker 1: watch our educational videos are daily live streams, are our
Speaker 1: topical videos. And they'll get real excited and they may
Speaker 1: decide that they want to delve a little deep into
Speaker 1: maybe trading, we're deeper into n FPS, or deeper into
Speaker 1: you know, other spaces, and then sometimes they'll go to
Speaker 1: other channels. But most of the people that are coming
Speaker 1: into crypto today, at least with YouTube and other social
Speaker 1: media is they're kind of using us to get there.
Speaker 1: So we're very proud of that. We we've got very
Speaker 1: beginner friendly content and you know, I think what we're
Speaker 1: seeing now when it comes to the people who are
Speaker 1: getting into crypto, uh, is there hasn't been a huge
Speaker 1: bump in retail interest here in the last few months.
Speaker 1: So you know, we're we were continuing to see a
Speaker 1: lot of the same people in the space that have
Speaker 1: been in it for a while. Why do you think
Speaker 1: there hasn't been a huge bump in retail interest, Well,
Speaker 1: because when you look at the price, um, when you
Speaker 1: go back to September, kind of like you were talking
Speaker 1: about with Facebook a little while ago. Um, you know,
Speaker 1: September you know started off a pretty good time. In October,
Speaker 1: we've really kind of evened off since then, and so
Speaker 1: a lot of people who were came in early last year.
Speaker 1: They're in big profit and they've been here for a
Speaker 1: while and they'll continue to be in big profit. But
Speaker 1: for those people who have came in in more recent times,
Speaker 1: their profit with bitcoin is either non existent or it's
Speaker 1: very small, depend on when they got in. So, you know,
Speaker 1: I think people aren't necessarily looking at bitcoin as the
Speaker 1: thing to really pull people into the markets. We've seen
Speaker 1: n f t s and metaverse talk obviously over the
Speaker 1: last few weeks really continue to heat up. They have
Speaker 1: team market is down a little bit, but the metaverse
Speaker 1: stuff has really been you know, pulling some retail people in.
Speaker 1: But the average retail investor right now, like bitcoin just
Speaker 1: doesn't seem like a giant opportunity. What about other cryptocurrencies?
Speaker 1: I mean, what can you tell from what's going on
Speaker 1: in the conversations or the interest or what people are
Speaker 1: searching on what they want to know about interest in
Speaker 1: other digital currencies? Right So, obviously, anytime there are projects
Speaker 1: that continue to move upwards when the market is stagnant,
Speaker 1: people become interested in those. Like I mentioned metaverse projects,
Speaker 1: decentraland Sandbox, those are two that people have really been
Speaker 1: looking at. We go with just some of the more
Speaker 1: traditional projects that have been around for a while. I mean,
Speaker 1: ethereum right now is starting to generate a lot of interest. Again.
Speaker 1: We're looking you know, one chart I like to look
Speaker 1: at is the ethereum versus bitcoin pair, and this is
Speaker 1: the value of one ethereum coin versus the value of
Speaker 1: one bitcoin. And we finally have seen that break into
Speaker 1: a really large uptrend and a lot of analysts are
Speaker 1: predicting it to go parabolic where one ethereum will be
Speaker 1: over ten percent the value of one bitcoin. And we're
Speaker 1: at a place right now where the ethereum market dominance
Speaker 1: is rising in the bitcoin market dominance is falling. You know,
Speaker 1: it's kind of a recipe where we could in the
Speaker 1: next few months the etherium at least temporarily past bitcoin,
Speaker 1: and I think that's something that's super excited to people.
Speaker 1: Of course, I'm talking about the market cabin Yeah, not
Speaker 1: the price. The prices they're quite different right now. But
Speaker 1: speaking of price, bitcoin price right now, Ben is really
Speaker 1: creating today. Uh it's down more than six point five
Speaker 1: uh at fifty dollars. What do you make of the
Speaker 1: volatility that we've seen and and how it could potentially
Speaker 1: scare away people who haven't yet invested. Yeah, so the
Speaker 1: volatility is something very terrifying to people. And that's why
Speaker 1: I'm like, I've really been talking a lot different uh
Speaker 1: you know, speaking engagements that I've had and talking with
Speaker 1: different people that you know, there are people that are
Speaker 1: going to be risk it first. They're going to be
Speaker 1: scared away from bitcoin because of volatility. You can't really
Speaker 1: talk someone in to being you know, risky. So there's
Speaker 1: people that are risk at first. They're gonna look at
Speaker 1: the volatility of bitcoin and they're gonna be scared and
Speaker 1: they're not gonna come into this market for a long
Speaker 1: time until it stabilizes, maybe fifteen years from now. So
Speaker 1: the people that are in crypto today and I've reaped
Speaker 1: all the benefits, they've got a little bit of that
Speaker 1: risk factor, a little bit of that risk gene and them.
Speaker 1: So you're never gonna talk somebody into being risky in
Speaker 1: my opinion, you know, especially investors or savvy investors. They've
Speaker 1: already got a plan. They're gonna stick with what works.
Speaker 1: That's why the newer generation is coming into crypto a
Speaker 1: little more because you know, when you're younger, you're a
Speaker 1: little riskier than you know, as you get a little
Speaker 1: bit older. So that's one thing we're seeing. But what's
Speaker 1: really interesting to me about the bitcoin price that we've
Speaker 1: been noticing over the last you know, a week or so,
Speaker 1: is that it really has been following the stock market
Speaker 1: a pretty good and so today we get the jobs report.
Speaker 1: Bitcoin had actually recovered overnight and was going back up.
Speaker 1: I think it was above fifty eight thousand dollars or
Speaker 1: very close, and then the job report came out and
Speaker 1: bitcoin shot back down because the traditional markets also felt
Speaker 1: the impact from that job's report. So I think that
Speaker 1: that's something we could continue to see for a little bit.
Speaker 1: But ultimately I do believe that December will be a
Speaker 1: big month for a bitcoin in spite of this uh,
Speaker 1: you know drop that we've had today. Okay, we'll talk
Speaker 1: about that a little more in just a second. But
Speaker 1: is a drop like today's where we see bitcoin at
Speaker 1: around fifty two hundred, is that an entry point for you?
Speaker 1: Is at a buying opportunity? Well, the fifty three thousand
Speaker 1: dollar level has been extremely strong, and it has bounced
Speaker 1: off of that several times. Right now it is hovering
Speaker 1: right at that number almost exactly. Um, But I do
Speaker 1: think it is a pretty good price point um to
Speaker 1: get in at. We we've seen the fifty two to
Speaker 1: fifty four thous all arrange, you know, very strong for bitcoin,
Speaker 1: and I don't think there's especially with the options the
Speaker 1: futures expiring this morning, you know, I think that's you know,
Speaker 1: under rive it, which is the world's biggest you know,
Speaker 1: you know, bitcoin futures and etherorum features exchange. I think
Speaker 1: that frees up a little bit for us to possibly
Speaker 1: get some upward movement over the weekend. I definitely think
Speaker 1: it is, Uh, it's possible. So um, yeah, it's definitely
Speaker 1: interesting times for a bitcoin. But fifty three dollars it
Speaker 1: used to be a good price point. Well, it's interesting too.
Speaker 1: And I was just looking bitcoins off about from its
Speaker 1: November ninth high, Ethereum off about from that moment as well.
Speaker 1: S and p hit a high back on November eighteen. Uh,
Speaker 1: and it's only down um a few percentage points I
Speaker 1: think from that forgive me, I was just looking down
Speaker 1: about four percent. So we've definitely have seen the cryptocurrency
Speaker 1: world take it more on it. Chin, who should be
Speaker 1: investing in cryptocurrencies in your view? Yeah, so you're a
Speaker 1: biblid Crypto. Our mission is to empower people to find
Speaker 1: and financial freedom through crypto assets. So, if you're someone
Speaker 1: who is looking to change your life financially, crypto has
Speaker 1: shown over and over and over again that over the
Speaker 1: long term, not over one months, not over two months,
Speaker 1: you can find financial freedom through crypto assets. So if
Speaker 1: you're someone who's already found financial freedom, you know, if
Speaker 1: you're if you're Jeff Bezos and you made all your
Speaker 1: money the old way, then why would you switch? Why
Speaker 1: would you come over? But if you're someone that is
Speaker 1: looking to change your investment strategy, looking to change your life,
Speaker 1: looking to get out of that nine to five rat race,
Speaker 1: crypto offers that the numbers on it are very clear.
Speaker 1: While we get caught up in the short term moves
Speaker 1: of these assets, over the long term they've continued to
Speaker 1: crush it, continue to set new all the time highs.
Speaker 1: Almost every project you know in the top one hundred
Speaker 1: has set new all time highs or is very close
Speaker 1: to all the time highs this year. So because of that,
Speaker 1: you know that there is there are a lot of
Speaker 1: statistics at the point too. If you stay in crypto
Speaker 1: for four years or more, you will make money in
Speaker 1: this space. You will do very well. Oh. I always say,
Speaker 1: you know, it's very easy to make money in crypto.
Speaker 1: It's very hard to make money in crypto day to day.
Speaker 1: I'm just gonna say, Ben, there's some regulators who might
Speaker 1: say differently, and that you've got to understand too, that
Speaker 1: there's a lot of risk and not all cryptocurrencies are
Speaker 1: the same. Ben, come back. We would love to continue
Speaker 1: in the future. Ben Armstrong, foundering bit Boy Crypto, joining
Speaker 1: us on the phone in Atlanta. Thanks for listening to
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Business Week. Download the podcast on iTunes, SoundCloud, or
Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot com, and you can also listen to our
Speaker 1: radio show at two pm Eastern on Bloomberg Radio or
Speaker 1: watch us on YouTube search Bloomberg Global News