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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: I'm just about that action awesome all right.

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Speaker 1: Here we got growing into spect so I'm saying it's

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Speaker 1: a catch touchdown.

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Speaker 3: That we see most gamblers when they go to gamble,

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Speaker 3: they go to win.

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Speaker 4: That's incredible.

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Speaker 2: Big bank, small banks. I like to make money. All right.

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Speaker 2: This is the ultimate kabash.

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Speaker 1: You want to put.

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Speaker 4: And we are underway.

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Speaker 3: Welcome into the Action Network Podcast, presented by the Fandels

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Speaker 3: Sportsbook Brendan Glasheen, joined by two NFL contributors at Action Network,

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Speaker 3: Jill Galant Brandon Anderson.

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Speaker 4: Great to have the crew back together.

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Speaker 3: Uh. This is our annual NFL Awards Best Bets episode

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Speaker 3: where our experts highlight their favorite pick across MVP, Coach

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Speaker 3: of the Year, Rookies of the Year, Offensive, Defensive, et cetera.

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Speaker 3: And as a reminder, we're taking a real deep dive

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Speaker 3: into NFL right now. The season is vastly approaching here

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Speaker 3: on the Action Network Podcast. This week we have a

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Speaker 3: full lineup of episodes including season long, player props, Exotics,

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Speaker 3: NFL pool Play and that will be everything we have

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Speaker 3: as far as season outlooks stuff before we dive into

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Speaker 3: the normal season schedule like Best bets, etc. For NFL

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Speaker 3: Week one. Very exciting times and great to talk to

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Speaker 3: both of you again. It's been a while, so excited

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Speaker 3: to have this pod. Let's just dive right in. We're

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Speaker 3: gonna start with the MVP because it's always the juicy

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Speaker 3: conversation heading into the year and everyone freaks out by

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Speaker 3: week four, week five who the favorite should be. But

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Speaker 3: for our interest, we have a show to do today

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Speaker 3: and we have to talk about what the lines look

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Speaker 3: like right now, Brandon Anderson. So when we and this

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Speaker 3: is how we're going to do this podcast, everybody, We'll

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Speaker 3: go to Brandon first for each award and he's going

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Speaker 3: to give the historical background, historical context on how this

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Speaker 3: award typically shakes out the criteria of the player and

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Speaker 3: how it typically unfold season by season. So, Brandon, why

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Speaker 3: didn't you get us started and set the scene for

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Speaker 3: MVP of the National Football League.

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Speaker 2: Let's do this. I am glad to be back, Good

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Speaker 2: to see you all. It's ben a minute, get my

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Speaker 2: pizza ready. We're back at it again. MVP is a

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Speaker 2: quarterback award. We know this, we don't have to go

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Speaker 2: over it, but fifteen out of sixteen MVPs have been quarterbacks. Truly,

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Speaker 2: I did not even look at another name for MVP.

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Speaker 2: It's quarterbacks only. Cooper Cup is the only non quarterback

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Speaker 2: to even get a vote in the last five years.

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Speaker 2: He got won one first place vote. No one else

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Speaker 2: any first place votes. So it's a quarterback. Twelve of

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Speaker 2: the last sixteen quarterback or twelve last six MVPs went

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Speaker 2: to Brady Peyton, Rogers, Mahomes. That's it, those four dudes.

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Speaker 2: So Mahomes is the favorite. We'll get to him in

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Speaker 2: a second. He's the right favorite. This is a team award,

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Speaker 2: not just a player award. Those fifteen quarterbacks won eighty

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Speaker 2: three percent of their games as a fourteen point one

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Speaker 2: win pace. Fourteen wins that is a one seed most

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Speaker 2: of the time, is a top two seed all but

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Speaker 2: one out of the fifteen, and thirteen and more wins

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Speaker 2: for eleven out of the fifteen. So we got to

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Speaker 2: win a lot of games. You need your quarterback to

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Speaker 2: put up stats. Typically the average here is about forty

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Speaker 2: five hundred yards forty touchdowns. That is close to three

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Speaker 2: hundred yards a game, two and a half scores a game.

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Speaker 2: That all basically means that MVP for as fun as

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Speaker 2: it's gonna be and we're gonna talk about all year.

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Speaker 2: We really have like ten or twelve guys here, Like

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Speaker 2: there is not a lot of names the conversation. There

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Speaker 2: are only quarterbacks, and a lot of them are already

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Speaker 2: disqualified because their team's not good enough. So a couple

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Speaker 2: other notes here. Average age higher than you think, thirty

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Speaker 2: one years old over this stretch. Why well, because Brady

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Speaker 2: and Manny and Rodgers keep winning it, right, So if

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Speaker 2: you take those three out, the average age is twenty six.

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Speaker 2: So now it's back more where you're looking at your Herberts,

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Speaker 2: your lawrences. The guys will get to as for as odds.

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Speaker 2: A couple of things here to note, six of the

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Speaker 2: last eight winners started plus eleven hundred or longer, so

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Speaker 2: it's not usually the favorite here. However, if it is

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Speaker 2: the favorite, it's usually because it's Brady, Rogers, Mahomes or

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Speaker 2: Peyton because they're the favorite. That's how this thing goes.

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Speaker 2: So that's no. One last thing. This is not helpful

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Speaker 2: right now, but in season, we love our Vorps and Schwarps,

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Speaker 2: right our Advanced Stats EPA. If you look at EPA

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Speaker 2: in season fourteen out of our fifteen winners finished top

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Speaker 2: two in EPA per play and fourteen oh fifteen finished

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Speaker 2: top two in EPA plus completion over expectation. So as

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Speaker 2: the season goes along, those can be very good indicators

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Speaker 2: to tell us who's not really in the running and

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Speaker 2: who might surprise and be in the running. So lots

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Speaker 2: to go on for MVP here. Obviously, Mahomes is our

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Speaker 2: defending guy here. We got him on the podcast last year.

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Speaker 2: That was our first big win. I think plus eight

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Speaker 2: or nine hundred, depending on the book you got him.

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Speaker 2: You gotta start with him. It's a fun field, maybe

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Speaker 2: not quite as big a field as we would like

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Speaker 2: to believe.

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Speaker 3: Alan, Josh Allen, Justin, Herbert Russell, Wilson, Lamar Jackson. Those

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Speaker 3: are some of the names in that grouping with Mahomes.

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Speaker 3: As far as looking at the odds last year at

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Speaker 3: this point in the preseason, and I think your note

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Speaker 3: about the age when you eliminate Rogers, Brady and Manning

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Speaker 3: twenty six is that kind of spot where they're probably

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Speaker 3: out of their rookie deal. They got a big fat extension,

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Speaker 3: So that that's interesting too. How that timing kind of

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Speaker 3: lines up With all that being said, Joe Galant, why

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Speaker 3: don't you give us a pick and who do you

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Speaker 3: like for MVP based on all that context and how

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Speaker 3: it shakes out.

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Speaker 1: Sure, And one of the things I would also add

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Speaker 1: is some of those winners were in the first three years,

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Speaker 1: first few years rather of their deal. If you look

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Speaker 1: at Patrick Mahomes, you look true Lamar Jackson, both second

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Speaker 1: year starters. So I'm going to be looking at somebody

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Speaker 1: who I think is going to make a natural progression here,

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Speaker 1: and I'm taking a look at Trevor Lawrence for MVP

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Speaker 1: at sixteen to one now right now at FanDuel that's

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Speaker 1: where he is at plus sixteen hundred. There's others At

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Speaker 1: sixteen to one. You've got Lamar Jackson, You've got Dak Prescott,

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Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers to attack of Boloa. Of all of those

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Speaker 1: of the group, to me, Lawrence I feel has the

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Speaker 1: best shot. And when you start to look at some

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Speaker 1: of the other correlating odds, for example, the AFC South,

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Speaker 1: their favored to win the AFC South right now around

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Speaker 1: minus one fifty five. That's about a sixty percent implied probability.

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Speaker 1: So winning that division, I think there's potential for best

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Speaker 1: record in the AFC now. Brandon did mention in his

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Speaker 1: profile for MVP that winning record is a consistent theme

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Speaker 1: because every MVP winner over the last eight years has

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Speaker 1: been on a team that has had or shared the

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Speaker 1: best conference record. And then once you look at the

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Speaker 1: division that they're in, it's a mess. Like the Colts

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Speaker 1: are starting over at quarterback, their best player doesn't want

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Speaker 1: to play there anymore. The Titans roster has regressed, in

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Speaker 1: my opinion, despite adding receiver to Andre Hopkins. And we'll

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Speaker 1: talk about the Texans here in a little bit, but

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Speaker 1: I think the Texans, even though they were able to

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Speaker 1: get their quarterback in the future and maybe potentially the

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Speaker 1: best defensive player in the draft, I still think they're

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Speaker 1: building up from the basement. So they're probably a little

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Speaker 1: bit overmatched. So the Jags are gonna get some easy

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Speaker 1: wins this year. They went four and two in the

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Speaker 1: division in twenty twenty two. Every other team in the

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Speaker 1: division has got glaring weaknesses, so I think there's potential

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Speaker 1: to go at least five and one or six to

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Speaker 1: zero in the division. But then you look at the

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Speaker 1: coaching aspect and Trevor Lawrence, the Doug Peterson influence, I

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Speaker 1: don't think we could just overlook that because he's got

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Speaker 1: a bit of a track record as a quarterback. Whisper

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Speaker 1: like you really could he can really coach them up.

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Speaker 1: I mean, stat wise for Lawrence, I mean it was

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Speaker 1: a nightmare in year one with Urban Meyer. Year two,

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Speaker 1: night and day, he's ninth in passing yards, eighth and

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Speaker 1: touchdown passes and most importantly, guys, he cut down on

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Speaker 1: those dumb ass turnovers. He led the NFL seventeen picks

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Speaker 1: in the first year, got that down to eight in

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Speaker 1: year two. Gets a nice wide receiver one in Calvin Ridley,

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Speaker 1: to help spread the field even more downfield threat maybe

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Speaker 1: helping with that EPA. Now they do have some tough

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Speaker 1: teams on the docket. They've got the Chiefs, they've got

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Speaker 1: the Bills, They've got the Niners and the Bengals on tap.

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Speaker 1: Some would argue that that would obviously a big threat

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Speaker 1: to Lawrence's MVP campaign. I see it as opportunity because

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Speaker 1: if the Jackson Lawrence play well, it's going to go

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Speaker 1: a long way when we get to the end of

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Speaker 1: the year and voters are starting to make that MVP

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Speaker 1: case at the end of the season, looking at who

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Speaker 1: they beat who they played, and if he plays well

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Speaker 1: in those games, we're going to be talking about Lawrence

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Speaker 1: at the end of the year. And I think there's

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Speaker 1: a lot of potential for them to get to a

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Speaker 1: top seed in the AFC Conference. So Trevor Lawrence at

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Speaker 1: sixteen to one is my best bet for NFL MVP.

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Speaker 3: I don't think it can be overstated the continuity coach

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Speaker 3: and quarterback in that division.

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Speaker 2: Now.

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Speaker 3: I know Ryan Tannehill is back with Mike Rabel, so

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Speaker 3: technically they've been together before, but they drafted Will Levis,

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Speaker 3: they still have Malik Willis.

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Speaker 2: It's a mess.

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Speaker 3: They have three quarterbacks that they might use this year

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Speaker 3: at some point. So I think that's a great point too,

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Speaker 3: that the continent in that division just stinking is beneficial

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Speaker 3: and opportunity, as you said, a first play schedule because

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Speaker 3: they won the division. Brandon, with your context in mind,

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Speaker 3: who's a guy who jumps out?

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Speaker 2: So I'm gonna talk about two guys here because to

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Speaker 2: kind of talk through my process for me, given the

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Speaker 2: criteria I spoke with, Patrick Mahomes has to be where

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Speaker 2: you start here, like it's boring because he so obviously

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Speaker 2: checks every single box down the list. He's the best

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Speaker 2: player on the best team, he has the best coaches,

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Speaker 2: He's on the best offense. Here's the list. He's played

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Speaker 2: five years, twelve or more. Wins every year, Top three

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Speaker 2: EPA every year, Top two DVA offense every year. It's

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Speaker 2: that obvious and that boring. There are some red flags.

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Speaker 2: He's gonna have two new starting tackles. Usually that takes

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Speaker 2: a little time to start the year. Travis Kelce turns

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Speaker 2: thirty four this year. No Eric Bienemy calling plays or

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Speaker 2: at least helping the scheme. We'll see if that actually

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Speaker 2: helps or hurts that. No Chris Jones maybe on defense again.

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Speaker 2: Team Award. You gotta win games. Defense helps you win games.

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Speaker 2: So I think if you just want to make one

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Speaker 2: bet right now for MVP and I'm out and I'll

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Speaker 2: ride this ticket to the end, I think Mahomes is

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Speaker 2: the guy. Six hundred is too long even before player

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Speaker 2: this time of the year, I don't think you should

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Speaker 2: be more than half of that as the clear favorite.

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Speaker 2: We saw Rogers, Peyton, Brady, Mahomes. These are the guys

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Speaker 2: that win the award. To me, if I'm building a position,

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Speaker 2: I have to have Mahomes in the portfolio. Somewhere along

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Speaker 2: the way, I will build a position. I'm hoping to

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Speaker 2: wait and probably add him at a better number later.

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Speaker 2: This is gonna be the conversation all year. It's gonna

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Speaker 2: move guys like Josh Allen have an awesome opening schedule.

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Speaker 2: I think Allan's probably the leader at the midpoint of

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Speaker 2: the season if he's healthy, but I don't like him late.

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Speaker 2: But that sort of movement means I can maybe add

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Speaker 2: Mahomes later at a spot where his number drop because

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Speaker 2: now it's Allen's year, or it's Herbert's year. Maybe it's

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Speaker 2: Trevor Lawrence this year. So the other reason that I'm

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Speaker 2: a little hesitant to go in Mahomes, we know this.

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Speaker 2: Where are all the good teams this year? It's the AFC.

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Speaker 2: I did my quarterback rankings article. Eight of the top

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Speaker 2: nine quarterbacks in my article all play in the AFC.

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Speaker 2: It's absurd everything is in the AFC. I want someone

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Speaker 2: in the NFC because it's way easier to win twelve

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Speaker 2: games and be a top two seed. In fact, that's

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Speaker 2: basically where I'm going. I'm going with the guy that

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Speaker 2: was just outside my top nine quarterbacks at number ten,

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Speaker 2: and I'm gonna give you a pick that will make

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Speaker 2: Jill happy. My guy, Dak Prescott Dallas Cowboys twenty five

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Speaker 2: to one. The case is effectively what I just said.

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Speaker 2: Dak Prescott has a good chance, in my opinion, to

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Speaker 2: be on the NFC one seed. I don't really like

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Speaker 2: the Niners that much this year for a number of reasons.

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Speaker 2: The NFC is wide open. That basically means I'm down

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Speaker 2: to Eagles and Cowboys, and if the Eagles don't beat

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Speaker 2: the Cowboys in the vision, Dallas is probably the one seed.

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Speaker 2: So now, what do I have quarterback on the one

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Speaker 2: seed of America's team? Past the SoundBite that's the MVP

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Speaker 2: right there. The NFC is open. Look, I know Mike McCarthy.

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Speaker 2: I'm not excited. I would rather not have Mike McCarthy

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Speaker 2: involved in a bet I'm making, But he tends to

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Speaker 2: skew pass heavy, so I think that that can only

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Speaker 2: help Dak he passes more. I like Brandon Cooks there

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Speaker 2: this year helping with Ceedee Lamb. I do not like

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Speaker 2: Bran Schottenheimer either. However, he does have a good history

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Speaker 2: of getting the ball to receivers on the move. I

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Speaker 2: think that's a very good fit for Lamb and Cooks.

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Speaker 2: I don't want McCarthy or Shotenheimer holding my money. No,

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Speaker 2: thank you, I do not want it, sir. But I

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Speaker 2: can see a world where this offense kind of sets

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Speaker 2: up just right for timing quarterback like Dak to get

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Speaker 2: the ball to these guys. Let Lamb and Cook's cook

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Speaker 2: I guess per se Dak's numbers over his career seven

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Speaker 2: point six yards per attempt. That's a good number. Six

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Speaker 2: percent touchdown rate the last couple of years. You usually

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Speaker 2: have to spike in tds here to get into the mix.

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Speaker 2: That's a good number. He's had a top three epa season,

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Speaker 2: he got an MVP vote in a season. To me,

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Speaker 2: I don't know that I would say he's the favorite

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Speaker 2: to win. He certainly is not. That's mahomes. But I

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Speaker 2: think he's a quarterback of a team that is absolutely

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Speaker 2: in the mix for a one seed, and at twenty

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Speaker 2: five to one, that is the worst number. That's a

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Speaker 2: bad number for an NFC one seed possibility. So Dak

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Speaker 2: is my top value on the board.

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Speaker 3: And referencing Brandon Anderson's quarterback rankings, he said eight of

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Speaker 3: the first nine in the AFC well, his second NFC

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Speaker 3: quarterback is Dak Prescott at number ten on your list,

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Speaker 3: So exactly, you got him as the second best quarterback

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Speaker 3: in the conference, Jill. That's where he's got, Dak Prescott.

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Speaker 3: You've got reaction to this, you excited or now nervous.

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Speaker 1: The only counter I would say is you got to

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Speaker 1: get the interceptions down, because Mahomes he did have eleven

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Speaker 1: interceptions last year, but that was actually like an anomaly.

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Speaker 1: Normally we're looking at you know, five, six, seven interceptions

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Speaker 1: kind of at most, and he only played twelve games

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Speaker 1: last year and he still had the league in interceptions.

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Speaker 1: So I think the main thing that I would just

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Speaker 1: say right now I'm seeing is over under interception line

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Speaker 1: around twelve and a half. I do think that is

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Speaker 1: going to go under, which obviously correlates with Brandon's play.

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Speaker 1: But that is the one thing that I think is

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Speaker 1: the sticking factor for Dak is that right now there's

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Speaker 1: still a lot of you know, bad blood about how

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Speaker 1: many picks he's been throwing unnecessarily last year.

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Speaker 3: All right, good to keep in mind, And that's been

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Speaker 3: a theme of camp, and really the lead up here

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Speaker 3: is Dak just keeps throwing interceptions, and he's actually been

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Speaker 3: very kind of outspoken about that. And Trey Lance is

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Speaker 3: there now, so maybe I'm not saying he's a threat,

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Speaker 3: but maybe it gives dak a little.

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Speaker 4: Kick, you know, like, oh they got they brought this

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Speaker 4: third overall pick in who else? I like it?

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Speaker 2: My guy, Trey Lance, Jill, I'm a Cowboys fan. Now,

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Speaker 2: welcome me to the Bandwig and let's go.

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Speaker 4: North Dakota State.

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Speaker 1: I can't believe the disrespect Cooper Rush is getting right

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Speaker 1: now in this conversation.

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Speaker 4: It's a great point.

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Speaker 3: So, as Brandon said earlier, this is a really fun

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Speaker 3: award to talk about. So let's spend a couple of

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Speaker 3: minutes quickly on some of the longer shot guys, popular names,

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Speaker 3: and Brandon, as we prepared for this pod, I thought

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Speaker 3: it was interesting some of the names you threw out,

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Speaker 3: because these quarterbacks.

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Speaker 4: Is this group that you put together?

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Speaker 3: To me and one of these guys, I remember you

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Speaker 3: bet last year because there was some there were some

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Speaker 3: legs under this player because of how the team got

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Speaker 3: hot middle of the season, and as we found out,

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Speaker 3: it didn't work out.

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Speaker 4: But it was just fascinating to me.

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Speaker 3: It feels like this next group, and you want to

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Speaker 3: hit on there are some guys in here that have

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Speaker 3: that mobile aspect. I mean, you look at your historical

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Speaker 3: context points.

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Speaker 4: Only Lamar and Cam Newton.

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Speaker 3: I guess Aaron Rodgers, I think he's still more of

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Speaker 3: a pure pocket guy. But you look at Jackson and

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Speaker 3: Newton as two of the more mobile guys in the

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Speaker 3: last ten years have won this award. The guys that

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Speaker 3: you want to talk about as longer shot guys are

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Speaker 3: mobile quarterbacks.

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Speaker 4: Why don't you discuss some of those names.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Look, Justin the Fields is a very popular candidate.

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Speaker 2: If you've been listening to across our Action Network podcast platforms,

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Speaker 2: you hear a lot of Justin the Fields love. I

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Speaker 2: know the guys on the Favorites really like Justin the Fields.

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Speaker 2: I know, I believe Chris Raybund's and on Justin the Fields. Yep,

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Speaker 2: I gotta be honest. I am not in on Justin

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Speaker 2: the Fields. I live here in the Chicago area. I

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Speaker 2: watch a lot of Justin the Fields as politely as

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Speaker 2: I can say it. I want a quarterback to win

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Speaker 2: the award. I don't really know if Justin Fields is

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Speaker 2: a quarterback. His passing metrics, his passing numbers are terrible

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Speaker 2: across the board. In my quarterback rankings, I Scott Slander

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Speaker 2: for putting him twentieth. I thought I was being pretty

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Speaker 2: kind to putting him twentieth. I was giving him the

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Speaker 2: benefit of the doubt putting him twentieth. He can improve

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Speaker 2: because he's young, and yeah, I know the blocking got

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Speaker 2: a little better, and he's got a Dj Moore help

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Speaker 2: at receiver. I get the case. I think the blocking

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Speaker 2: is still a way better run blocking than pass blocking.

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Speaker 2: I think Dj Moore can only do so much. We've

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Speaker 2: seen quarterbacks make a huge eleap, but everyone wants to say, well,

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Speaker 2: got Josh Allen. Josh Allen's the only example because he's

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Speaker 2: the only example. Like when a quarterback is really bad

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Speaker 2: like this, like the numbers look, usually that means they

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Speaker 2: don't have a job at the end of this year,

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Speaker 2: not that they're the MVP at the end of this year.

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Speaker 2: That is the far more likely outcome to me here.

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Speaker 2: I don't like the Justin field love myself especially. I

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Speaker 2: think if you wanted him, you missed the boat. He's

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Speaker 2: twenty two to one now or shorter. I think you

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Speaker 2: had to get the long shot while he was out there.

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Speaker 2: You mentioned the guy that I bet on last year

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Speaker 2: to a Tega Bailoa. I thought he was maybe gonna

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Speaker 2: be my pick here. I wanted to get there. First

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Speaker 2: eight games last year when he was healthy. He won

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Speaker 2: all eight games, and he was on pace for fifty

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Speaker 2: two hundred yards and forty touchdowns and he was number

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Speaker 2: one in EPA. That's your MVP. That's it. Unfortunately, the

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Speaker 2: other nine games count, so he got hurt. He's missed

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Speaker 2: four games two years in a row. He had injury

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Speaker 2: history at Alabama. He's a small guy. We know about

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Speaker 2: all that stuff. On top of that, the offensive line

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Speaker 2: is not good. Tron Armstead. You're taking on his injury

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Speaker 2: risk as well because Miami suffered when he was out

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Speaker 2: the left tackle, Tyreek Hill, you're taking on his injury

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Speaker 2: risk as well. So I think the path is there

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Speaker 2: for Tua if everything clicks. But you were asking for

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Speaker 2: a lot of things to click on him. So again,

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Speaker 2: ultimately he's someone if he was maybe a forty or fifty,

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Speaker 2: I take a shot I couldn't get there at a

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Speaker 2: twenty two to one. Russell Wilson, our guy from last year,

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Speaker 2: Jared Goff, had the great finish Deshaun Watson I actually

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Speaker 2: would have given more thought to, except let's just be real,

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Speaker 2: nobody's voting for Seahn Watson this year. Like the guy

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Speaker 2: could throw a hundred touchdowns and I'm still not sure

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Speaker 2: he would win MVP. So that's not even a I

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Speaker 2: just don't want to feel about this bet. I don't

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Speaker 2: want it on my portfolio. Just truly. Voters have to

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Speaker 2: vote for the guy, and I don't think maybe down

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Speaker 2: the line, but I don't think this year we're gonna

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Speaker 2: get enough votes there. Joe, what do you think our

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Speaker 2: guy Russell will Denver Broncos does.

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Speaker 1: He have a shot this year? I'm not sure if

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Speaker 1: I'm ready to ride. I know that I crack on

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Speaker 1: the Broncos a lot.

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Speaker 2: Obviously.

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Speaker 1: I think Sean Payton and his influence is going to

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Speaker 1: make a massive, massive impact comparatively what we saw with

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Speaker 1: Nathaniel Hackett last year. I honestly of these lists. The

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Speaker 1: issue with a lot of these long shots is you

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Speaker 1: have to overcome objections, and everyone has such a glaring

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Speaker 1: objection Like Tua, I'm not sure he's going to play

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Speaker 1: all seventeen games. Justin Field's same thing, And to be honest,

402
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Speaker 1: what we've seen in preseason. It looks a lot like

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Speaker 1: the same mechanics and throwing issues that he was having

404
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Speaker 1: even in the first two years as a quarterback, Deshaun Watson.

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Speaker 1: We don't need to get in the morality side of things.

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Speaker 1: He's not getting any votes, Jared Goff. I mean, the

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Speaker 1: Detroit Lions are pretty much pegged to win the NFC

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Speaker 1: at this stage by a lot of experts, so yeah,

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Speaker 1: maybe he might be worth it. But again, Jared Goff,

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Speaker 1: if you go look at his home and away splits

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Speaker 1: home he's great. Away, he is a very below average quarterback,

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Speaker 1: And so for me, honestly, I think once we get

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Speaker 1: past the plus two thousands, it's really tough to justify,

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Speaker 1: and then you're starting to get into skill position players

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Speaker 1: and we've already established we're not even considering those at

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Speaker 1: this stage. So I think you got to kind of

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Speaker 1: look through the first ten guys, make your pick and

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Speaker 1: stick with it.

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Speaker 2: I agree with you, but I'm gonna jump in with

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Speaker 2: one more name here to wrap up. I am a

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Speaker 2: glutton for punishment because technically speaking, I've effectively made this

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Speaker 2: bet twice already and had it looked terribly for me.

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Speaker 2: I already have one MVP pick in the app from

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Speaker 2: about February or March at fifty to one, and he's

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Speaker 2: now at Dallas Cowboy. Because I was Trey a Lance. Guys,

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Speaker 2: I can't stop myself. Brock Purty fifty to one, I

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Speaker 2: have to consider him for MVP. Here's the case. Look,

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Speaker 2: I just told you I don't believe in the Niners.

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Speaker 2: Despite that Brock party. In the six games he effectively

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Speaker 2: started on pace for thirty seven hundred yard yards, thirty

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Speaker 2: seven touchdowns, nine interceptions, two touchdowns every single game eight

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Speaker 2: to no in games that he played half the snaps

433
00:21:08,440 --> 00:21:12,160
Speaker 2: counting those playoff games, seven point six percent touchdown the rate.

434
00:21:12,359 --> 00:21:15,520
Speaker 2: That's really good. That's an MVP number. Eight point one

435
00:21:15,640 --> 00:21:19,199
Speaker 2: yards per attempt, that's an MVP number. We talked about EPA.

436
00:21:19,880 --> 00:21:22,560
Speaker 2: If you play for Kyle Shanahan at quarterback, you are

437
00:21:22,600 --> 00:21:26,040
Speaker 2: gonna be good at EPA. Like Jimmy Garoppolo has been

438
00:21:26,119 --> 00:21:28,560
Speaker 2: top three to five at EPA when he plays over

439
00:21:28,600 --> 00:21:31,440
Speaker 2: the years. That's they break the code. If you are

440
00:21:31,720 --> 00:21:35,120
Speaker 2: a person playing quarterback for Kyle Shanahan, your numbers are

441
00:21:35,119 --> 00:21:38,000
Speaker 2: going to look good. The weapons are there, the defense

442
00:21:38,080 --> 00:21:40,359
Speaker 2: is really good. They have a great chance at the

443
00:21:40,400 --> 00:21:43,840
Speaker 2: one seed. Quarterbacks that win on a one seed are

444
00:21:43,880 --> 00:21:47,639
Speaker 2: in the mix. Kyle Shanahan when he has Garoppolo or

445
00:21:47,680 --> 00:21:50,360
Speaker 2: Purty over his career in the nine ers forty three

446
00:21:50,359 --> 00:21:54,320
Speaker 2: and seventeen a twelve win pace. So I don't love

447
00:21:54,359 --> 00:21:57,040
Speaker 2: this team. I don't love brock Purty. I don't believe

448
00:21:57,040 --> 00:21:59,840
Speaker 2: in Brock Purty. I still think this number is way

449
00:21:59,840 --> 00:22:03,480
Speaker 2: too long. There's such an obvious narrative. Guys, if the

450
00:22:03,520 --> 00:22:05,760
Speaker 2: Niners go fourteen and three, is the one seed and

451
00:22:05,800 --> 00:22:08,920
Speaker 2: we got mister Irrelevant coming off of a broken elbow

452
00:22:08,960 --> 00:22:11,399
Speaker 2: that couldn't even throw the ball, and now he's the

453
00:22:11,480 --> 00:22:14,800
Speaker 2: quarterback of this juggernaut team, you're telling me we're not

454
00:22:14,840 --> 00:22:17,720
Speaker 2: going to talk about him as well? Did we find

455
00:22:17,720 --> 00:22:20,280
Speaker 2: the next Tom Brady? He's an MVP that's now like

456
00:22:20,840 --> 00:22:24,720
Speaker 2: it's it's right there. So I have to consider that

457
00:22:24,800 --> 00:22:27,080
Speaker 2: fifty to one. The case that I'd make is this,

458
00:22:27,680 --> 00:22:30,880
Speaker 2: if I'm building a position, I didn't really talk about

459
00:22:31,000 --> 00:22:33,800
Speaker 2: Jalen Hurts much. I think I didn't really expect to

460
00:22:33,800 --> 00:22:35,840
Speaker 2: be in on Jalen Hurts. He doesn't really fit the

461
00:22:35,880 --> 00:22:39,120
Speaker 2: profile for me. To me, he's a guy that probably

462
00:22:39,200 --> 00:22:41,440
Speaker 2: last year was a shot and then we probably don't

463
00:22:41,480 --> 00:22:44,480
Speaker 2: get there again. Historically, if you finish top three in MVP,

464
00:22:44,640 --> 00:22:46,639
Speaker 2: you get one shot and then you're never back again.

465
00:22:47,000 --> 00:22:49,760
Speaker 2: For most guys, Jalen Hurts to me is probably that

466
00:22:49,800 --> 00:22:53,320
Speaker 2: but twelve hundreds long. If I play my guy Dak

467
00:22:53,800 --> 00:22:56,840
Speaker 2: and Jalen Hurts and Purty, I can play all three

468
00:22:56,880 --> 00:23:00,600
Speaker 2: together at plus six forty one effectively. And now what

469
00:23:00,600 --> 00:23:03,800
Speaker 2: did I get? I got what I think even if

470
00:23:03,840 --> 00:23:05,480
Speaker 2: I don't like the Niners and I'm a little low

471
00:23:05,520 --> 00:23:07,879
Speaker 2: on the Eagles, I got probably the top two seed

472
00:23:07,960 --> 00:23:10,640
Speaker 2: quarterbacks in the NFC. We know a top two seed

473
00:23:10,720 --> 00:23:12,679
Speaker 2: wins this. I just got two of the four candidates

474
00:23:12,680 --> 00:23:16,320
Speaker 2: to an MVP at six forty to one. So that's

475
00:23:16,359 --> 00:23:18,720
Speaker 2: the reason that I have to add Purty to the

476
00:23:19,040 --> 00:23:23,639
Speaker 2: It's an NFC only position in a week conference. Brendan,

477
00:23:23,720 --> 00:23:26,880
Speaker 2: you're laughing throughout. I know, I can't help myself. Tell

478
00:23:26,920 --> 00:23:28,800
Speaker 2: me why I'm crazy on Brock Purty.

479
00:23:28,960 --> 00:23:31,639
Speaker 3: No, no, no, I think we'll get to Coach of

480
00:23:31,680 --> 00:23:33,240
Speaker 3: the Year in a second, and we do need to

481
00:23:33,240 --> 00:23:36,320
Speaker 3: move on. But Kyle Shanahan has the same odds to

482
00:23:36,359 --> 00:23:38,320
Speaker 3: win Coach of the Year as Brock Party does to

483
00:23:38,359 --> 00:23:42,800
Speaker 3: an MVP right now at Vanduel. So that's interesting and

484
00:23:43,200 --> 00:23:45,480
Speaker 3: I do see where you're coming from. Especially if Party

485
00:23:45,560 --> 00:23:49,920
Speaker 3: has a good year, it will kind of justify management too.

486
00:23:50,080 --> 00:23:53,080
Speaker 3: Trading Trey Lance in the same year, that kind of

487
00:23:53,800 --> 00:23:55,840
Speaker 3: that butters things up too. So we'll get We'll get

488
00:23:55,840 --> 00:23:57,040
Speaker 3: to that and Coach of the Year, because I think

489
00:23:57,080 --> 00:24:00,120
Speaker 3: that's interesting. Every point you laid out about Brock Purty,

490
00:24:00,480 --> 00:24:02,760
Speaker 3: I feel like you could also check boxes off as

491
00:24:02,800 --> 00:24:04,879
Speaker 3: positives for Kyle Shanahan.

492
00:24:05,520 --> 00:24:06,840
Speaker 4: Let's go to offensive.

493
00:24:06,480 --> 00:24:10,400
Speaker 3: Rookie of the Year and we'll get Brandon's historical context

494
00:24:10,440 --> 00:24:13,200
Speaker 3: on this. This should be pretty brief because I think

495
00:24:13,200 --> 00:24:15,080
Speaker 3: we're these guys are in alignment on this one.

496
00:24:15,119 --> 00:24:15,840
Speaker 4: So go ahead, Brandon.

497
00:24:16,359 --> 00:24:18,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, you're looking for a top pick here. Offensive Rookie

498
00:24:18,800 --> 00:24:20,680
Speaker 2: of the Year goes to a guy in the first round.

499
00:24:20,840 --> 00:24:23,600
Speaker 2: Sixteen of the last nineteen rookies of the year on

500
00:24:23,680 --> 00:24:27,000
Speaker 2: offense first round picks. In fact, fifteen out of nineteen

501
00:24:27,000 --> 00:24:30,439
Speaker 2: were top twelve picks. And remember half of those are

502
00:24:30,560 --> 00:24:33,600
Speaker 2: defense too, so you need a guy near the top.

503
00:24:33,720 --> 00:24:37,800
Speaker 2: Last five winners all top ten, so top twelve, top ten.

504
00:24:38,160 --> 00:24:42,119
Speaker 2: We're looking at three quarterbacks Bryce Young, CJ. Stroud, Anthony Richardson,

505
00:24:42,560 --> 00:24:45,880
Speaker 2: and then Bejean Robinson, Jamier Gibbs. It's very likely one

506
00:24:45,920 --> 00:24:48,480
Speaker 2: of those guys, especially because you make a pretty good

507
00:24:48,480 --> 00:24:50,720
Speaker 2: case for all of them and then you have to go.

508
00:24:51,240 --> 00:24:53,480
Speaker 2: You need all of them just to not do well

509
00:24:53,560 --> 00:24:57,160
Speaker 2: to go outside that mix. Really, so typically about half

510
00:24:57,240 --> 00:24:59,440
Speaker 2: the time it's a quarterback two of the last four,

511
00:25:00,119 --> 00:25:02,960
Speaker 2: nine of the last nineteen, so numbers come out about

512
00:25:02,960 --> 00:25:06,960
Speaker 2: half in their four running backs and six sorry, four receivers,

513
00:25:07,000 --> 00:25:10,480
Speaker 2: six running backs out of those nineteen as well. Winning

514
00:25:10,680 --> 00:25:13,959
Speaker 2: does not matter too much here. Actually, we don't need

515
00:25:14,040 --> 00:25:15,760
Speaker 2: rookies to come in and change the world. We just

516
00:25:15,760 --> 00:25:18,360
Speaker 2: want them to put up some pretty stats, right, come

517
00:25:18,359 --> 00:25:19,960
Speaker 2: and make us feel good. Can you play in my

518
00:25:20,000 --> 00:25:23,639
Speaker 2: fantasy team? Terrific? You're the rookie of the year. Usually

519
00:25:23,720 --> 00:25:25,199
Speaker 2: rookie of the Year on offense is a top ten

520
00:25:25,320 --> 00:25:29,000
Speaker 2: fantasy player, so pay attention. Stats matter. That stuff adds up.

521
00:25:29,320 --> 00:25:33,280
Speaker 2: Running back or receiver need about thirteen hundred screaming yards

522
00:25:33,280 --> 00:25:36,560
Speaker 2: and ten scores. I mentioned winning. Eight out of thirteen

523
00:25:37,440 --> 00:25:41,040
Speaker 2: Rookie of the years have been sub five hundred, including

524
00:25:41,080 --> 00:25:42,800
Speaker 2: last year's Rookie of the Year. Garrett Wilson as the

525
00:25:42,880 --> 00:25:45,480
Speaker 2: Jets kind of fell off towards the end. So that's

526
00:25:45,520 --> 00:25:49,920
Speaker 2: the profile. Favorites don't usually win this one, and it's

527
00:25:49,960 --> 00:25:52,800
Speaker 2: not typically been a running back award of late. But

528
00:25:53,040 --> 00:25:55,080
Speaker 2: Jill me and you don't really care about either one

529
00:25:55,119 --> 00:25:57,000
Speaker 2: of those things this year because we are aligned on

530
00:25:57,040 --> 00:25:58,480
Speaker 2: the same guy. I'll let you make the case.

531
00:25:59,200 --> 00:26:02,119
Speaker 1: Yeah, An he started texting each other right after the

532
00:26:02,200 --> 00:26:04,480
Speaker 1: draft to see the Rookie of the Year odds and

533
00:26:04,520 --> 00:26:07,480
Speaker 1: we're like, this seems a little off that the fact

534
00:26:07,480 --> 00:26:09,720
Speaker 1: that right now we're still getting plus three hundred on

535
00:26:09,760 --> 00:26:10,120
Speaker 1: this guy.

536
00:26:10,400 --> 00:26:12,680
Speaker 2: So we're both aligned on bijone. Robinson.

537
00:26:12,800 --> 00:26:14,920
Speaker 1: I'll get into this and I think you'll have a

538
00:26:14,960 --> 00:26:16,920
Speaker 1: little bit more info to add, But I wanted to

539
00:26:17,200 --> 00:26:20,399
Speaker 1: cite the O line rankings that you did on the

540
00:26:20,440 --> 00:26:23,840
Speaker 1: Action Network where you had the Falcons offensive line in

541
00:26:23,880 --> 00:26:26,639
Speaker 1: your top ten. They were seventh because this unit just

542
00:26:27,160 --> 00:26:30,120
Speaker 1: pounds d lines into the ground. They were third most

543
00:26:30,200 --> 00:26:33,639
Speaker 1: rushing yards last year, third most rushing first downs, fourth

544
00:26:33,720 --> 00:26:38,000
Speaker 1: highest yards per carry, And from a fantasy perspective, our

545
00:26:38,040 --> 00:26:40,600
Speaker 1: own Sean Kerner, we're projecting just over around three hundred

546
00:26:40,680 --> 00:26:43,720
Speaker 1: carries for Bijon in his rookie season. That equates to

547
00:26:43,760 --> 00:26:46,000
Speaker 1: about eighteen touches per game, so that will put him

548
00:26:46,040 --> 00:26:48,440
Speaker 1: around around three hundred or more, which is a lot

549
00:26:48,480 --> 00:26:51,040
Speaker 1: for any rookie. But when you have Al Gear and

550
00:26:51,080 --> 00:26:53,120
Speaker 1: Cordero Patterson to be able to help spell, that could

551
00:26:53,119 --> 00:26:55,320
Speaker 1: even put them in a position put two running back

552
00:26:55,359 --> 00:26:58,000
Speaker 1: sets out there. One of the interesting thing about the

553
00:26:58,040 --> 00:27:00,919
Speaker 1: Falcons too in Arthur Smith's offense is they were the

554
00:27:00,920 --> 00:27:02,960
Speaker 1: only team last year to run the ball on more

555
00:27:03,000 --> 00:27:06,159
Speaker 1: than half of their offensive plays. They still ran the

556
00:27:06,200 --> 00:27:08,760
Speaker 1: ball even when they were playing from behind, where typically

557
00:27:08,840 --> 00:27:12,280
Speaker 1: NFL teams that's usually the opposite. And the last rookie

558
00:27:12,320 --> 00:27:14,760
Speaker 1: running back that we saw taking this high was Saquon Barkley.

559
00:27:14,840 --> 00:27:17,520
Speaker 1: He finished his running back one in Fantasy one offensive

560
00:27:17,560 --> 00:27:20,600
Speaker 1: Rookie of the Year time before that, Ezekiel Elliott was

561
00:27:20,920 --> 00:27:23,880
Speaker 1: you probably should have won over Dak Prescott, but I'm

562
00:27:23,880 --> 00:27:26,400
Speaker 1: not gonna get too upset about that. But Ezekiela should

563
00:27:26,400 --> 00:27:27,920
Speaker 1: have won that year. I thought he was the best

564
00:27:27,960 --> 00:27:30,879
Speaker 1: offensive rookie that season. So and again, I know you

565
00:27:30,880 --> 00:27:34,439
Speaker 1: were talking about how playoffs and win totals doesn't necessarily

566
00:27:34,480 --> 00:27:36,760
Speaker 1: correlate to this, but right now, the Falcons are getting

567
00:27:36,760 --> 00:27:39,199
Speaker 1: a lot of preseason hype. They've got minus odds to

568
00:27:39,200 --> 00:27:41,000
Speaker 1: make the playoffs. They've got an eight and a half

569
00:27:41,040 --> 00:27:44,600
Speaker 1: win total in an NFC South Division that is horrendous.

570
00:27:44,119 --> 00:27:47,000
Speaker 2: With the over half now holy and a half with.

571
00:27:47,000 --> 00:27:49,800
Speaker 1: The over at minus one thirty five. So we're gonna

572
00:27:49,800 --> 00:27:52,720
Speaker 1: probably see them as fairly competitive this year. So Jeon

573
00:27:52,840 --> 00:27:55,119
Speaker 1: Robinson I think will be heavily involved. Give it to

574
00:27:55,160 --> 00:27:57,679
Speaker 1: me all day at plus three hundred, and.

575
00:27:57,960 --> 00:28:00,360
Speaker 3: Brandon, just to jump in, As you mentioned, I wasn't

576
00:28:00,400 --> 00:28:02,080
Speaker 3: on the text chain, but I'll let that go.

577
00:28:03,400 --> 00:28:04,280
Speaker 4: I'm just I'm just kidding.

578
00:28:04,280 --> 00:28:06,320
Speaker 3: But Brandon, when you bet this, I saw you put

579
00:28:06,359 --> 00:28:08,240
Speaker 3: this in the app, as you mentioned, you got a

580
00:28:08,320 --> 00:28:10,000
Speaker 3: much better number it was. I think you got it

581
00:28:10,000 --> 00:28:11,919
Speaker 3: at four fifty. Now it's down to three hundred. This

582
00:28:12,000 --> 00:28:15,120
Speaker 3: moved quickly on Bjeon Robinson.

583
00:28:14,960 --> 00:28:16,560
Speaker 2: It did, And I think that's the key point I

584
00:28:16,600 --> 00:28:19,200
Speaker 2: want to add here is normally it would be ludicrous

585
00:28:19,240 --> 00:28:21,320
Speaker 2: to bet on any of these awards at a plus

586
00:28:21,320 --> 00:28:24,080
Speaker 2: three hundred, like a future at plus three hundred, in

587
00:28:24,119 --> 00:28:27,120
Speaker 2: a race that's wide open like this twenty five percent implied.

588
00:28:27,440 --> 00:28:30,560
Speaker 2: Typically you would hear me scream. Yet you don't do this,

589
00:28:30,560 --> 00:28:33,200
Speaker 2: don't bet on the favorite. Jean is that good?

590
00:28:33,359 --> 00:28:33,479
Speaker 3: Like?

591
00:28:34,080 --> 00:28:36,560
Speaker 2: Put it this way. If you hear me the no

592
00:28:36,680 --> 00:28:39,320
Speaker 2: favorites guy betting on the favorite, then you really need

593
00:28:39,360 --> 00:28:41,959
Speaker 2: to bet on a favorite. I have Beijon more like

594
00:28:42,000 --> 00:28:44,320
Speaker 2: thirty five percent likely. I don't think that he should

595
00:28:44,320 --> 00:28:46,960
Speaker 2: be any longer than plus two hundred, So I would

596
00:28:47,040 --> 00:28:49,240
Speaker 2: rather that you got the ticket app plus four fifty

597
00:28:49,320 --> 00:28:52,200
Speaker 2: or four hundred, But three hundred is still good value

598
00:28:52,240 --> 00:28:55,000
Speaker 2: to me, Arthur Smith, to me is the case you

599
00:28:55,040 --> 00:28:55,520
Speaker 2: mentioned him?

600
00:28:55,600 --> 00:28:55,800
Speaker 1: Jell.

601
00:28:56,520 --> 00:28:59,120
Speaker 2: I'm in on Atlanta. They're one of my two worst

602
00:28:59,160 --> 00:29:01,959
Speaker 2: of first teams. I think that they could contend as

603
00:29:02,000 --> 00:29:04,920
Speaker 2: high as the two seed in the NFC. So I'm

604
00:29:04,920 --> 00:29:07,920
Speaker 2: not taking desmon A Raider from my NFL MVP ticket too.

605
00:29:08,000 --> 00:29:11,600
Speaker 2: Let's not get too crazy, but Bijon winning Rookie of

606
00:29:11,600 --> 00:29:13,080
Speaker 2: the Year I think would make a lot of sense.

607
00:29:14,280 --> 00:29:17,440
Speaker 2: One thing a lot of people have been hesitant here is, well, yeah,

608
00:29:17,480 --> 00:29:20,520
Speaker 2: what about Tyler Elgiear? What about Corderio Patterson? Won't they

609
00:29:20,880 --> 00:29:23,720
Speaker 2: take too many touches away? This team ran the ball

610
00:29:23,840 --> 00:29:28,800
Speaker 2: nearly six hundred times last year. And if you are

611
00:29:28,840 --> 00:29:32,320
Speaker 2: ahead because you're winning games and the defense is a

612
00:29:32,320 --> 00:29:34,720
Speaker 2: little better this year. Guess what you do in your head,

613
00:29:34,760 --> 00:29:37,720
Speaker 2: and you're Arthur Smith, you run the ball even more so,

614
00:29:37,920 --> 00:29:42,200
Speaker 2: like they might run extra this year. There's plenty of touches.

615
00:29:42,640 --> 00:29:45,120
Speaker 2: I agree with Kerner's numbers. I think three hundred carries

616
00:29:45,160 --> 00:29:48,120
Speaker 2: is very much in the mix. One other thing, here's

617
00:29:48,160 --> 00:29:51,720
Speaker 2: the schedule. Start out, you gotta get this now. Week one,

618
00:29:52,120 --> 00:29:54,960
Speaker 2: Atlanta gets to play rookie Bryce Young on the road.

619
00:29:55,200 --> 00:29:59,960
Speaker 2: They get his road debut. Then Packers, Lions, Jaguars, felt

620
00:30:00,640 --> 00:30:02,600
Speaker 2: sorry not Falcons. I forget who's next. I wrote that

621
00:30:02,640 --> 00:30:06,040
Speaker 2: one down wrong. But the next four teams are all

622
00:30:06,040 --> 00:30:08,920
Speaker 2: teams I have in the bottom twelve in my defense rankings.

623
00:30:09,360 --> 00:30:13,080
Speaker 2: So I would love to tell you wait around, get

624
00:30:13,120 --> 00:30:16,080
Speaker 2: someone else hot. Maybe you can buy this cheaper. I

625
00:30:16,120 --> 00:30:17,920
Speaker 2: think there's just as much of a chance that this

626
00:30:18,000 --> 00:30:21,000
Speaker 2: is like a negative number. And Bijon is the odds

627
00:30:21,040 --> 00:30:24,640
Speaker 2: on favorite by sometime in October, so I still like

628
00:30:24,680 --> 00:30:26,800
Speaker 2: the value. I'll still grab them at plus three hundred.

629
00:30:26,800 --> 00:30:28,600
Speaker 2: It's one of the better award bets you can make

630
00:30:28,680 --> 00:30:29,120
Speaker 2: right now.

631
00:30:29,600 --> 00:30:32,560
Speaker 3: Green Bay Week So you mentioned Carolina. Green Bay Week

632
00:30:32,600 --> 00:30:38,320
Speaker 3: two at Detroit Jacksonville in London, and then Houston. Houston

633
00:30:38,360 --> 00:30:38,800
Speaker 3: is the team.

634
00:30:39,320 --> 00:30:41,440
Speaker 2: That's right. That's probably why I missed out of that one,

635
00:30:41,440 --> 00:30:43,840
Speaker 2: because Houston's my other worst to first pick, So of

636
00:30:43,880 --> 00:30:46,240
Speaker 2: course I actually like them, so let's leave them off

637
00:30:46,240 --> 00:30:49,160
Speaker 2: the list. But let's get that four. No, I mean, really,

638
00:30:49,400 --> 00:30:52,000
Speaker 2: they could win those first four games. Atlanta's entire schedule

639
00:30:52,040 --> 00:30:55,240
Speaker 2: and division is winnable games if this team is actually

640
00:30:55,280 --> 00:30:57,840
Speaker 2: good and competent, and I think that they are, and

641
00:30:57,880 --> 00:30:59,360
Speaker 2: they will be in the mix, and Bijon will be

642
00:30:59,400 --> 00:30:59,800
Speaker 2: a big reason.

643
00:31:01,360 --> 00:31:04,680
Speaker 3: Well, we hope by the end of the season in January,

644
00:31:04,760 --> 00:31:10,280
Speaker 3: when we're celebrating our Bijon Robinson, future winner for Offensive

645
00:31:10,320 --> 00:31:12,160
Speaker 3: Rookie of the Year, it will be a great memory.

646
00:31:12,160 --> 00:31:14,480
Speaker 3: And gentlemen, more memories are made when you're there for

647
00:31:14,600 --> 00:31:17,360
Speaker 3: live NFL action and when you need tickets, our friends

648
00:31:17,360 --> 00:31:20,480
Speaker 3: at Ticketmaster have got you covered. As the official marketplace

649
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650
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651
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652
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653
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654
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Speaker 3: those pivotal plays. And if your plans change, Ticketmaster gives

655
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656
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Speaker 3: mobile tickets make.

657
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Speaker 4: Getting in on game day a breeze.

658
00:31:42,160 --> 00:31:44,800
Speaker 3: And you can even customize your Ticketmaster app to rep

659
00:31:44,800 --> 00:31:48,800
Speaker 3: your team's colors. So you know, for Brandon Anderson, it's

660
00:31:48,800 --> 00:31:52,280
Speaker 3: the green and gold for North Dakota State. Find tickets

661
00:31:52,280 --> 00:31:55,080
Speaker 3: today at ticketmaster dot com slash NFL in a Trey

662
00:31:55,200 --> 00:31:56,080
Speaker 3: Lance version of that.

663
00:31:57,840 --> 00:31:59,920
Speaker 4: Moving on, let's go to Defensive Rookie of the Year.

664
00:32:00,040 --> 00:32:02,520
Speaker 3: We're going to rifle through the rest of these awards

665
00:32:02,960 --> 00:32:05,600
Speaker 3: here on the show. Give us the layout Brandon for

666
00:32:05,800 --> 00:32:08,720
Speaker 3: Defensive Rookie of the Year and how this normally shakes out.

667
00:32:08,960 --> 00:32:10,800
Speaker 2: Similar to Offensive Rookie of the Year. You need a

668
00:32:10,840 --> 00:32:13,600
Speaker 2: top pick twenty out of twenty three winners the century

669
00:32:13,640 --> 00:32:17,600
Speaker 2: first round picks nineteen out of twenty three top fifteen picks,

670
00:32:17,760 --> 00:32:19,560
Speaker 2: so you don't need to look too far down the

671
00:32:19,640 --> 00:32:23,240
Speaker 2: draft board. In fact, six of our winners this century

672
00:32:23,280 --> 00:32:25,760
Speaker 2: are just the top defender. That doesn't seem that many,

673
00:32:26,000 --> 00:32:28,440
Speaker 2: but us twenty six percent of them are the top defender.

674
00:32:28,760 --> 00:32:31,800
Speaker 2: You could blind bet at plus three hundred on every

675
00:32:31,800 --> 00:32:35,600
Speaker 2: top defender and be coming out ahead profitably for the century.

676
00:32:35,720 --> 00:32:38,840
Speaker 2: So far so spoiler alert that's where we're going here.

677
00:32:39,320 --> 00:32:42,320
Speaker 2: Seven of our eleven winners here started plus nine hundred

678
00:32:42,360 --> 00:32:45,040
Speaker 2: or shorter, So you do want the favorite here. That

679
00:32:45,160 --> 00:32:47,880
Speaker 2: is often the case on defense awards, and we want

680
00:32:47,920 --> 00:32:50,640
Speaker 2: a pass rusher here. Six of our last nine have

681
00:32:50,880 --> 00:32:53,880
Speaker 2: seven sacks or more. We do have three corners in

682
00:32:53,920 --> 00:32:56,440
Speaker 2: that stretch as well. Used to be a linebacker award,

683
00:32:56,800 --> 00:32:59,640
Speaker 2: but it's been a pass rusher award lately, as most

684
00:32:59,640 --> 00:33:02,600
Speaker 2: defense awards have been. So I'm gonna just jump right

685
00:33:02,640 --> 00:33:06,360
Speaker 2: into my guy here because guys, this is my favorite

686
00:33:06,400 --> 00:33:08,800
Speaker 2: pick of the podcast. This is my favorite pick of

687
00:33:08,840 --> 00:33:13,120
Speaker 2: the preseason. Gave me the favorite Will Anderson Anderson stick

688
00:33:13,200 --> 00:33:18,239
Speaker 2: together plus five hundred. I mentioned the Houston Texans. I

689
00:33:18,280 --> 00:33:20,440
Speaker 2: am all in on the Texans team. I think this

690
00:33:20,480 --> 00:33:23,160
Speaker 2: team is way overlooked right now. They've added a lot

691
00:33:23,200 --> 00:33:25,760
Speaker 2: of floor razers on both sides of the ball. They

692
00:33:25,840 --> 00:33:29,720
Speaker 2: moved to Tamiko Ryans from Love Smith and frankly from

693
00:33:29,720 --> 00:33:32,960
Speaker 2: being irrelevant the last few years, Like how many times

694
00:33:32,960 --> 00:33:35,200
Speaker 2: did we even talk about the Texans on our podcast?

695
00:33:35,280 --> 00:33:38,200
Speaker 2: Last year? They were in our wrap up moving it

696
00:33:38,280 --> 00:33:42,240
Speaker 2: along section, like week after week, Will Anderson is going

697
00:33:42,320 --> 00:33:45,920
Speaker 2: to help change that Top three pick first defender on

698
00:33:45,960 --> 00:33:48,960
Speaker 2: the board, consensus top defender. Really, he's been a monster.

699
00:33:49,040 --> 00:33:51,520
Speaker 2: In the preseason, he had a play where he came

700
00:33:51,520 --> 00:33:54,280
Speaker 2: off the edge, blew up running back, went over and

701
00:33:54,320 --> 00:33:56,720
Speaker 2: through him and blew up the quarterback and the ball

702
00:33:56,880 --> 00:33:59,560
Speaker 2: just like bouncing out into the open behind everyone. As

703
00:33:59,600 --> 00:34:02,240
Speaker 2: Will is just like, I'm the rookie of the year, guys,

704
00:34:02,280 --> 00:34:05,320
Speaker 2: this is the place I remember the Jadavian Clowney you

705
00:34:05,320 --> 00:34:07,800
Speaker 2: play from college. When he did that, it reminded me

706
00:34:07,840 --> 00:34:10,760
Speaker 2: of that here with Will Anderson. So he's been awesome.

707
00:34:10,800 --> 00:34:14,640
Speaker 2: Texans defense finished tenth in DVA the second half of

708
00:34:14,680 --> 00:34:17,879
Speaker 2: last season, so they're already improving. And now you get

709
00:34:17,880 --> 00:34:21,440
Speaker 2: Will Anderson, you get corner Derek Stingley back he missed

710
00:34:21,440 --> 00:34:24,279
Speaker 2: most of that, and you get Dimiko Ryans, who's been

711
00:34:24,360 --> 00:34:27,799
Speaker 2: this awesome leader of the forty nine ers defense all

712
00:34:27,840 --> 00:34:30,520
Speaker 2: these years. So I think the defense improves a lot.

713
00:34:30,920 --> 00:34:33,680
Speaker 2: Anderson has had seven to seventeen and ten and a

714
00:34:33,719 --> 00:34:36,719
Speaker 2: half sacks the last three years, so he can rack

715
00:34:36,800 --> 00:34:39,439
Speaker 2: up those numbers. And then here's one other stat I love.

716
00:34:39,960 --> 00:34:43,359
Speaker 2: The last six defensive rookie of the Year joined a

717
00:34:43,400 --> 00:34:46,320
Speaker 2: team that was bottom six in points per game allowed

718
00:34:46,719 --> 00:34:49,640
Speaker 2: and then leapt to top ten. After that. The Jets

719
00:34:49,920 --> 00:34:53,440
Speaker 2: went from dead last to fourth last year, Sas Gardner

720
00:34:53,520 --> 00:34:56,200
Speaker 2: Rookie of the Year. Who's our six bottom points per

721
00:34:56,239 --> 00:35:00,720
Speaker 2: game guys? This year? The Bears, Cardinals, Vikings, Line Colts,

722
00:35:00,800 --> 00:35:04,960
Speaker 2: and the Houston Texans. I have the Houston Texans going

723
00:35:04,960 --> 00:35:08,120
Speaker 2: worse to first in the division plus eleven hundred. I

724
00:35:08,160 --> 00:35:11,279
Speaker 2: am in on the Texans. I'm in Antimiko Ryans, and

725
00:35:11,320 --> 00:35:14,520
Speaker 2: I'm especially in on Will Anderson plus five hundred. It's

726
00:35:14,560 --> 00:35:16,320
Speaker 2: my favorite pick of the entire podcast.

727
00:35:16,800 --> 00:35:19,960
Speaker 3: And if if I remember correctly, Brandon, please interject if

728
00:35:20,000 --> 00:35:22,960
Speaker 3: I don't get this right. Tamiko Ryans coached Nick Bosa

729
00:35:23,280 --> 00:35:25,760
Speaker 3: in twenty nineteen on the Niners.

730
00:35:25,560 --> 00:35:28,680
Speaker 2: So absolutely, and and Nick botha last year who won

731
00:35:28,760 --> 00:35:31,920
Speaker 2: Defensive Player of the Year as well. So yeah, getting

732
00:35:31,960 --> 00:35:36,480
Speaker 2: Demico here to unleash Will Anderson, I think, look, Alabama

733
00:35:36,520 --> 00:35:38,680
Speaker 2: obviously wins a lot of games in college football, Will

734
00:35:38,760 --> 00:35:42,120
Speaker 2: Anderson was not being used necessarily optimally in the way

735
00:35:42,160 --> 00:35:45,879
Speaker 2: that he will be used in Houston. Just unleashing him

736
00:35:45,920 --> 00:35:48,360
Speaker 2: as a pass rusher too, So I think he's a

737
00:35:48,400 --> 00:35:50,440
Speaker 2: guy that actually could be better in the pros than

738
00:35:50,480 --> 00:35:56,040
Speaker 2: he even was used surrounded by juggernaut talent in Alabama.

739
00:35:56,120 --> 00:35:58,560
Speaker 3: Okay, very good. I think Jill, you're good on this one. Right,

740
00:35:58,560 --> 00:36:00,799
Speaker 3: We're gonna move on to coach of the Yeah.

741
00:36:00,840 --> 00:36:02,840
Speaker 1: I just I just wanted to mention one point, like,

742
00:36:02,880 --> 00:36:04,200
Speaker 1: I'm not going to make a pick on this. I

743
00:36:04,239 --> 00:36:06,200
Speaker 1: still think it's a little volatile. I did want to

744
00:36:06,200 --> 00:36:09,200
Speaker 1: mention that Jalen Carter's odds have completely shifted over the

745
00:36:09,239 --> 00:36:11,520
Speaker 1: preseason with a lot of the training camp hype and

746
00:36:11,600 --> 00:36:13,279
Speaker 1: being on that Eagles team, a lot of people are

747
00:36:13,280 --> 00:36:15,879
Speaker 1: looking at more opportunities for him. He's already now down

748
00:36:15,920 --> 00:36:18,359
Speaker 1: to plus five fifty at Van Duel. I just wanted

749
00:36:18,360 --> 00:36:20,839
Speaker 1: to make one tip because sometimes people will look at

750
00:36:20,840 --> 00:36:23,239
Speaker 1: this odds list and want to make a pick way

751
00:36:23,280 --> 00:36:26,440
Speaker 1: down the list, and I would just dissuade you to

752
00:36:26,480 --> 00:36:29,040
Speaker 1: do that. Don't pick anybody that's not a first round pick.

753
00:36:29,120 --> 00:36:32,320
Speaker 1: Because since two thousand, only three players to win Defensive

754
00:36:32,320 --> 00:36:34,600
Speaker 1: Brookie of the Year were not a first round pick, and

755
00:36:34,640 --> 00:36:37,959
Speaker 1: the last one was Shack Leonard in twenty eighteen. But again,

756
00:36:38,000 --> 00:36:40,800
Speaker 1: it does not happen very often. And speaking of Demko Ryans,

757
00:36:40,800 --> 00:36:43,400
Speaker 1: he was actually one of those picks in two thousand

758
00:36:43,400 --> 00:36:45,319
Speaker 1: and six. But yeah, if you're gonna be looking, just

759
00:36:45,360 --> 00:36:48,280
Speaker 1: look in the first round. But otherwise stick to the favors.

760
00:36:49,520 --> 00:36:52,120
Speaker 2: Jack Leonard makes it out of the Awards podcast two

761
00:36:52,160 --> 00:36:54,800
Speaker 2: straight years. Our guy, Shack Leonard, He's back.

762
00:36:56,400 --> 00:36:58,520
Speaker 4: Based on Brandon's wisdom about this pick.

763
00:36:58,640 --> 00:37:02,320
Speaker 3: It almost feels like Will Anderson's odds should be similar

764
00:37:02,360 --> 00:37:05,440
Speaker 3: to Beijon's odds. Yes, in Brandon's eyes, as it pretends

765
00:37:05,520 --> 00:37:09,319
Speaker 3: to defensive rookie defensive rookie offensive rookie comparisons.

766
00:37:09,400 --> 00:37:11,520
Speaker 2: And that's what I would say is to Jalen Carter,

767
00:37:11,560 --> 00:37:13,359
Speaker 2: I think he's the key here as to why Will

768
00:37:13,400 --> 00:37:16,000
Speaker 2: Anderson's odds are not that way I think they should be.

769
00:37:16,560 --> 00:37:20,239
Speaker 2: Jalen Carter plays defensive tackle. He is not going to

770
00:37:20,360 --> 00:37:24,920
Speaker 2: get the same edge rush stats opportunities as Will Anderson. Look,

771
00:37:25,080 --> 00:37:28,040
Speaker 2: I know he's effectively stepping into Javon Hargrave's role, who

772
00:37:28,080 --> 00:37:31,239
Speaker 2: had doublegit sacks, but he's not even a starter necessarily.

773
00:37:31,280 --> 00:37:34,040
Speaker 2: They still have Fletcher Cox, they have Jordan Davis, last

774
00:37:34,120 --> 00:37:37,000
Speaker 2: year's starter. He's gonna play it because they rotate through guys,

775
00:37:37,000 --> 00:37:40,040
Speaker 2: but the Eagles have like ten guys on that defensive front.

776
00:37:40,080 --> 00:37:42,719
Speaker 2: That they're going to be rotating through. I don't see

777
00:37:42,800 --> 00:37:45,680
Speaker 2: where he gets the stats, and look, stats matter. If

778
00:37:45,719 --> 00:37:48,360
Speaker 2: your defensive tackle usually finished the year with like twenty

779
00:37:48,400 --> 00:37:51,600
Speaker 2: five tackles and five sacks or something, you got to

780
00:37:51,680 --> 00:37:55,680
Speaker 2: catch people's attention and capture imagination. Will Anderson's going to

781
00:37:55,719 --> 00:37:57,800
Speaker 2: just have a lot more chance to get those flash plays,

782
00:37:57,800 --> 00:38:00,719
Speaker 2: I think than Jalen Carter. So thank you Jalen Carter

783
00:38:00,840 --> 00:38:03,440
Speaker 2: for existing. I think you're buying us value on this

784
00:38:03,560 --> 00:38:04,080
Speaker 2: bat here.

785
00:38:04,960 --> 00:38:06,640
Speaker 3: All right, let's move on to Coach of the Year

786
00:38:06,680 --> 00:38:08,640
Speaker 3: and yet, yeah, we're gonna give coaches some love because

787
00:38:08,680 --> 00:38:10,879
Speaker 3: typically when the three of us are together, at least

788
00:38:10,920 --> 00:38:13,480
Speaker 3: we crap on the coaching, which you can tune into

789
00:38:13,480 --> 00:38:16,040
Speaker 3: another podcast for that. These guys will be involved with

790
00:38:16,080 --> 00:38:18,520
Speaker 3: that one as it pertains to first coach fired. But

791
00:38:18,560 --> 00:38:21,480
Speaker 3: we're actually gonna give the coaches some love. And we

792
00:38:21,520 --> 00:38:24,799
Speaker 3: teased this earlier because some of the criteria Brandon's gonna

793
00:38:24,840 --> 00:38:27,080
Speaker 3: lay out I think lines up for Kyle Shanahan, but

794
00:38:27,400 --> 00:38:28,840
Speaker 3: turns out he's a guy we're not even really going

795
00:38:28,920 --> 00:38:31,000
Speaker 3: to talk about as it pertains to this award for

796
00:38:31,360 --> 00:38:33,240
Speaker 3: Brandon's reason, So why did you give him to us.

797
00:38:33,520 --> 00:38:36,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, so I think Kyle Shanahan is interesting you mentioned him.

798
00:38:36,040 --> 00:38:37,719
Speaker 2: I think he does line up with some of the

799
00:38:37,760 --> 00:38:40,520
Speaker 2: points here, but doesn't with the others. And so there's

800
00:38:40,560 --> 00:38:42,640
Speaker 2: three things you gotta do to win Coach of the Year.

801
00:38:42,760 --> 00:38:45,840
Speaker 2: It's very easy. Number one. You gotta win games. Twelve

802
00:38:45,880 --> 00:38:48,520
Speaker 2: point one wins the last ten years, and that's mostly

803
00:38:48,560 --> 00:38:51,040
Speaker 2: on a sixteen game schedule, so really youre probably gonna

804
00:38:51,040 --> 00:38:53,520
Speaker 2: win thirteen games here, nine out of the ten, when

805
00:38:53,560 --> 00:38:55,759
Speaker 2: at least eleven games, so that's the minimum. You gotta

806
00:38:55,840 --> 00:38:58,640
Speaker 2: win eleven or more. Games. Number two, you got to

807
00:38:58,719 --> 00:39:02,680
Speaker 2: improve the average here is going from six point seven

808
00:39:02,760 --> 00:39:06,000
Speaker 2: wins to just over twelve wins, So a five point

809
00:39:06,040 --> 00:39:08,920
Speaker 2: two win improvement eight out of the ten by at

810
00:39:09,040 --> 00:39:12,200
Speaker 2: least four wins from last year. All gonna be hard

811
00:39:12,239 --> 00:39:16,000
Speaker 2: for Shanahan to improve by that much. If your expectations

812
00:39:16,000 --> 00:39:18,320
Speaker 2: are too high, that's a problem, which goes to point

813
00:39:18,360 --> 00:39:22,520
Speaker 2: number three. You have to surprise all ten coaches here.

814
00:39:23,000 --> 00:39:25,480
Speaker 2: Coach for a team that went over the win total

815
00:39:25,520 --> 00:39:28,319
Speaker 2: by at least two wins from where it started at

816
00:39:28,320 --> 00:39:31,560
Speaker 2: the beginning of the year. Average four point four wins

817
00:39:31,600 --> 00:39:34,920
Speaker 2: above the win total. So this is the narrative portion.

818
00:39:35,360 --> 00:39:38,759
Speaker 2: This is the hey wow, look at this team, the

819
00:39:38,840 --> 00:39:41,439
Speaker 2: New York Giants. We thought they sucked and now they're

820
00:39:41,440 --> 00:39:44,239
Speaker 2: a playoff team. Brian Daple Coach of the Year. That's

821
00:39:44,280 --> 00:39:47,120
Speaker 2: the formula. They won the games, they improved a lot,

822
00:39:47,280 --> 00:39:50,799
Speaker 2: and they surprised. Four out of six winners on this

823
00:39:50,840 --> 00:39:53,040
Speaker 2: one have been a first year coach, So that's a

824
00:39:53,080 --> 00:39:56,400
Speaker 2: trend to watch lately. And five out of the last

825
00:39:56,440 --> 00:39:59,440
Speaker 2: seven have been offensive minded. Makes sense. That's where the

826
00:39:59,480 --> 00:40:02,239
Speaker 2: league has had gable fit both of those last year

827
00:40:02,280 --> 00:40:02,680
Speaker 2: as well.

828
00:40:03,239 --> 00:40:04,640
Speaker 4: So Jill, you got to pick for this one?

829
00:40:04,680 --> 00:40:05,200
Speaker 2: What do you got?

830
00:40:05,600 --> 00:40:07,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm gonna be sprinkling on this because it's plus

831
00:40:07,960 --> 00:40:10,920
Speaker 1: twenty five hundred, And I know Brandon is a little

832
00:40:10,960 --> 00:40:13,239
Speaker 1: more higher on the Falcons than the Panthers. But I

833
00:40:13,320 --> 00:40:17,960
Speaker 1: can't overlook frank Reich right now because again the low expectations,

834
00:40:18,320 --> 00:40:21,120
Speaker 1: they went seven and seven and ten last year. Definitely

835
00:40:21,120 --> 00:40:22,600
Speaker 1: could see a four win improvement.

836
00:40:22,800 --> 00:40:23,120
Speaker 2: I know.

837
00:40:23,960 --> 00:40:26,239
Speaker 1: Again, I just don't think as much as separating the

838
00:40:26,280 --> 00:40:30,520
Speaker 1: Falcons and the Panthers as maybe we're indicating and looking

839
00:40:30,560 --> 00:40:34,480
Speaker 1: at Frank Reich's historical profile, the five quarterbacks that he

840
00:40:34,480 --> 00:40:36,000
Speaker 1: has gotten to use. He might have had the worst

841
00:40:36,080 --> 00:40:39,480
Speaker 1: luck Again, he had some say in picking those quarterbacks,

842
00:40:39,480 --> 00:40:42,160
Speaker 1: but probably like the five quarterbacks now that he has

843
00:40:42,239 --> 00:40:45,120
Speaker 1: coached or he has had as a coach, Andrew Luck retired,

844
00:40:45,239 --> 00:40:48,640
Speaker 1: Jacobe Prissett back up on another team, Philip Rivers retired,

845
00:40:48,880 --> 00:40:52,680
Speaker 1: Carson Wentz out of football, Matt Ryan retired again. It's

846
00:40:52,760 --> 00:40:56,680
Speaker 1: just been a whirlwind of horrible quarterback play, and now

847
00:40:56,680 --> 00:40:59,640
Speaker 1: you're getting a rookie quarterback who you know, looked pretty

848
00:40:59,640 --> 00:41:01,960
Speaker 1: composed in his final two years at Alabama and talking

849
00:41:01,960 --> 00:41:05,000
Speaker 1: about how, you know, they're gonna probably win some games

850
00:41:05,040 --> 00:41:07,279
Speaker 1: this year that they shouldn't. You know, They've got the

851
00:41:07,280 --> 00:41:09,360
Speaker 1: Falcons and the Saints to open the season two, so

852
00:41:09,400 --> 00:41:11,360
Speaker 1: they might be able to get a little bit of

853
00:41:11,400 --> 00:41:13,239
Speaker 1: a head start on that division if they play well

854
00:41:13,280 --> 00:41:16,000
Speaker 1: in those games. Again, they're not favored in those games,

855
00:41:16,040 --> 00:41:18,880
Speaker 1: but it's worth mentioning. The other thing too that I

856
00:41:18,920 --> 00:41:21,359
Speaker 1: wanted to bring up is when teams have the number

857
00:41:21,400 --> 00:41:24,759
Speaker 1: one overall pick, they tend to do better ats the

858
00:41:24,840 --> 00:41:28,920
Speaker 1: following season, so against the spread. So I've been tracking this.

859
00:41:29,000 --> 00:41:31,319
Speaker 1: I have the data since nineteen eighty five teams with

860
00:41:31,440 --> 00:41:34,800
Speaker 1: the first overall pick see an ATS winning percent winning

861
00:41:34,800 --> 00:41:38,120
Speaker 1: percentage increase of twelve point four percent every year, that's

862
00:41:38,160 --> 00:41:41,200
Speaker 1: the average. And they went nine to eight ATS last year,

863
00:41:41,239 --> 00:41:43,520
Speaker 1: and based on this trend, they're probably going to improve

864
00:41:43,560 --> 00:41:46,680
Speaker 1: to ten and seven ats, maybe eleven and six ats.

865
00:41:46,760 --> 00:41:48,480
Speaker 1: So they're gonna be competitive and they're gonna be in

866
00:41:48,520 --> 00:41:51,239
Speaker 1: these games. So if Frank Reich again a lot of

867
00:41:51,239 --> 00:41:54,759
Speaker 1: pressure on him too because this team, there's gonna be

868
00:41:54,840 --> 00:41:57,640
Speaker 1: higher expectations just with having the number one overall pick

869
00:41:58,000 --> 00:41:59,719
Speaker 1: at twenty five to one, I think he fits a

870
00:41:59,719 --> 00:42:02,680
Speaker 1: great profile to see a little bit of improvement, especially

871
00:42:02,760 --> 00:42:04,839
Speaker 1: with how they were playing near the end of the year,

872
00:42:04,880 --> 00:42:06,640
Speaker 1: like they probably should have beat the Bucks in Week

873
00:42:06,680 --> 00:42:10,319
Speaker 1: seventeen to win that division, but obviously they collapsed in

874
00:42:10,360 --> 00:42:13,040
Speaker 1: the second half. So Frank Reich is who I'm sprinkling

875
00:42:13,040 --> 00:42:14,440
Speaker 1: on at twenty five to one.

876
00:42:14,680 --> 00:42:18,200
Speaker 3: Remember Jeff's Saturday was their coach that replaced him, Like

877
00:42:18,200 --> 00:42:20,839
Speaker 3: it almost kind of embarrassed Frank Wright in a sense

878
00:42:20,840 --> 00:42:23,960
Speaker 3: where it's like you think, this guy, Jeff Saturday is

879
00:42:23,960 --> 00:42:25,120
Speaker 3: going to be a better coach than him. So if

880
00:42:25,120 --> 00:42:28,200
Speaker 3: he can rebound from that, there's a narrative there too,

881
00:42:28,280 --> 00:42:31,000
Speaker 3: like where if the Panthers do get off to a

882
00:42:31,000 --> 00:42:33,520
Speaker 3: good start, or they're in the mix for the division

883
00:42:33,600 --> 00:42:34,880
Speaker 3: wild card, whatever it may be.

884
00:42:34,960 --> 00:42:38,719
Speaker 4: It's like the Colts got rid of this guy for

885
00:42:38,800 --> 00:42:40,080
Speaker 4: Jeff Saturday.

886
00:42:39,960 --> 00:42:42,640
Speaker 1: So we need, we almost need comeback coach of the

887
00:42:42,680 --> 00:42:43,360
Speaker 1: year now at.

888
00:42:43,200 --> 00:42:45,160
Speaker 4: This point, that's good.

889
00:42:46,040 --> 00:42:48,240
Speaker 3: So most of these coaches get fired, they're just buried

890
00:42:48,239 --> 00:42:51,440
Speaker 3: in their coordinators for the rest of their lives. Brandon,

891
00:42:51,520 --> 00:42:54,120
Speaker 3: So you've brought up Arthur Smith a few times in

892
00:42:54,160 --> 00:42:57,120
Speaker 3: the Beijon segment for offensive Rookie of the Year and

893
00:42:57,360 --> 00:43:00,960
Speaker 3: Arthur Smith offensive play caller, and might have a quarterback

894
00:43:00,960 --> 00:43:04,360
Speaker 3: that won't as we found out watching the Netflix documentary Quarterback,

895
00:43:04,640 --> 00:43:06,399
Speaker 3: you might not have a QB that might just walk

896
00:43:06,440 --> 00:43:08,759
Speaker 3: out and not come back and play quarterback again or.

897
00:43:08,719 --> 00:43:10,000
Speaker 4: Be with the team.

898
00:43:10,560 --> 00:43:13,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, not a great look for Marcus Mariota between that

899
00:43:13,640 --> 00:43:16,640
Speaker 2: and the preseason. Frankly, if you've watched an Eagles games,

900
00:43:16,640 --> 00:43:19,960
Speaker 2: Eagles fans are not excited about Mariota as the potential

901
00:43:20,000 --> 00:43:23,960
Speaker 2: backup there. So he's gone now. Desmond Raider hopefully better.

902
00:43:24,080 --> 00:43:26,799
Speaker 2: I like Arthur Smith. I'm gonna give you three picks here.

903
00:43:27,040 --> 00:43:29,600
Speaker 2: I'm gonna build a position you can only have thirty

904
00:43:29,600 --> 00:43:32,360
Speaker 2: two winners here, and by the criteria we had, we

905
00:43:32,360 --> 00:43:34,160
Speaker 2: can rule out the teams at the top, and we

906
00:43:34,160 --> 00:43:35,880
Speaker 2: can rule out the teams at the bottom who probably

907
00:43:35,880 --> 00:43:38,640
Speaker 2: aren't good enough, like sorry Jonathan Gannon and the Cardinals.

908
00:43:39,160 --> 00:43:42,359
Speaker 2: So really we're down to probably ten or fifteen options here.

909
00:43:42,480 --> 00:43:44,680
Speaker 2: I like Frank Reich. I ranked these guys, and he

910
00:43:44,800 --> 00:43:47,160
Speaker 2: was I believe my fifth or sixth choice. I'm gonna

911
00:43:47,200 --> 00:43:49,480
Speaker 2: take my top three here. So give me Arthur Smith

912
00:43:49,800 --> 00:43:53,960
Speaker 2: Atlanta plus fourteen hundred, Give me Dmico Ryans Houston plus

913
00:43:54,000 --> 00:43:57,080
Speaker 2: twenty five hundred. He's my favorite. If I only played one,

914
00:43:57,400 --> 00:44:00,400
Speaker 2: and then Matt Lafleur plus sixteen hundred Green Bay. So

915
00:44:00,400 --> 00:44:02,440
Speaker 2: I'm gonna play all three of those together. It's basically

916
00:44:02,480 --> 00:44:04,600
Speaker 2: a plus five to ten. So I get a five

917
00:44:04,680 --> 00:44:07,680
Speaker 2: to one on my top three guys out of this mix.

918
00:44:08,239 --> 00:44:10,360
Speaker 2: So I kind of made the case really already for

919
00:44:10,440 --> 00:44:13,000
Speaker 2: both Atlanta and Houston, so I'm not gonna go too

920
00:44:13,080 --> 00:44:16,520
Speaker 2: far into that. Atlanta, I like them, They're my division favorite.

921
00:44:16,520 --> 00:44:19,920
Speaker 2: There weak division. I don't love the Saints. I think

922
00:44:19,960 --> 00:44:22,680
Speaker 2: the Falcons are as good as anyone. I don't love

923
00:44:22,719 --> 00:44:25,960
Speaker 2: the Jaguars this year. I know I don't mind the

924
00:44:25,960 --> 00:44:28,480
Speaker 2: Trevor Lawrence MVP bet we talked about earlier, because if

925
00:44:28,520 --> 00:44:30,640
Speaker 2: things are right, I think that's in play. I think

926
00:44:30,640 --> 00:44:32,640
Speaker 2: they could be the one or the two seed, and

927
00:44:32,960 --> 00:44:34,920
Speaker 2: he would be the reason why and be in the mix.

928
00:44:35,480 --> 00:44:37,800
Speaker 2: He's really the only thing I like about that team

929
00:44:38,120 --> 00:44:40,399
Speaker 2: my roster matrix, the way I kind of grade out

930
00:44:40,440 --> 00:44:44,680
Speaker 2: these teams. He's the one position quarterback that is above

931
00:44:44,719 --> 00:44:47,520
Speaker 2: average on the entire team, not the entire rest of

932
00:44:47,520 --> 00:44:50,920
Speaker 2: the offense or the defense. I think they're a little overrated,

933
00:44:51,239 --> 00:44:53,440
Speaker 2: and that makes that division very winnable, which is why

934
00:44:53,480 --> 00:44:57,200
Speaker 2: I love Houston. Houston I have as the outright favorite

935
00:44:57,239 --> 00:44:59,680
Speaker 2: in that division. That's right. The Texans are my favorite

936
00:44:59,719 --> 00:45:02,800
Speaker 2: over the Jaguars. So I have to take Demico twenty

937
00:45:02,840 --> 00:45:05,520
Speaker 2: five to one, and then, really, I'm just trying to

938
00:45:05,520 --> 00:45:08,319
Speaker 2: grab a sleeper from three bad divisions, and I think

939
00:45:08,360 --> 00:45:10,960
Speaker 2: the NFC North is the actual worst division in football.

940
00:45:11,360 --> 00:45:13,840
Speaker 2: I don't love the Lions, I don't like Justin Fields

941
00:45:13,840 --> 00:45:16,400
Speaker 2: and the Bears. I don't feel great about my vikings,

942
00:45:17,040 --> 00:45:18,719
Speaker 2: so I'm gonna take a flyer and Matt Lafleur in

943
00:45:18,760 --> 00:45:21,520
Speaker 2: the Packers. I don't really like the Packers that much. Obviously,

944
00:45:21,560 --> 00:45:23,359
Speaker 2: I don't like them as a fan, but I don't

945
00:45:23,400 --> 00:45:26,040
Speaker 2: love the team. The talent is there, though Jordan Love

946
00:45:26,040 --> 00:45:28,200
Speaker 2: has looked really good in the preseason. Got to give

947
00:45:28,280 --> 00:45:30,399
Speaker 2: him a shot. He's been, you know, a few years

948
00:45:30,400 --> 00:45:32,680
Speaker 2: now to get ready. The defense has a lot of

949
00:45:32,719 --> 00:45:34,839
Speaker 2: talent that hasn't come together, and it's part of why

950
00:45:34,840 --> 00:45:37,560
Speaker 2: I don't like them. But there's talent here. I think

951
00:45:37,600 --> 00:45:41,719
Speaker 2: there's probably the most talented team in the division. So

952
00:45:42,080 --> 00:45:45,399
Speaker 2: I'll take Lafleur and basically give me three shots at

953
00:45:45,400 --> 00:45:49,839
Speaker 2: this award from bad divisions, easy schedules, and a chance

954
00:45:49,880 --> 00:45:51,680
Speaker 2: to just rack up a bunch of wins if things

955
00:45:51,719 --> 00:45:54,680
Speaker 2: go right. It's the NFL league. It's that not for long.

956
00:45:55,000 --> 00:45:57,680
Speaker 2: We don't really know how things go. So this is

957
00:45:57,719 --> 00:46:00,200
Speaker 2: a good chance to kind of bet on volatility and

958
00:46:00,239 --> 00:46:01,960
Speaker 2: bet on some of these teams that might be on

959
00:46:01,960 --> 00:46:02,719
Speaker 2: the upswing here.

960
00:46:04,000 --> 00:46:05,880
Speaker 3: All right, let's move on, we have three more to go.

961
00:46:06,000 --> 00:46:08,760
Speaker 3: Let's work in Comeback Player of the Year. This one's

962
00:46:08,800 --> 00:46:13,080
Speaker 3: always fascinating because I don't know, I feel like it's

963
00:46:13,120 --> 00:46:16,200
Speaker 3: really open ended for some guys that were hurt, sort

964
00:46:16,200 --> 00:46:18,160
Speaker 3: of like you mentioned Brock Purty, who was banged up

965
00:46:18,200 --> 00:46:18,719
Speaker 3: last year.

966
00:46:19,200 --> 00:46:21,560
Speaker 4: If you miss x amount of games, how does that fare?

967
00:46:21,640 --> 00:46:23,440
Speaker 3: And then we've got the obvious one from last year

968
00:46:23,520 --> 00:46:25,640
Speaker 3: tomorrow Hamlin, which I know Brandon, you're going to discuss

969
00:46:25,920 --> 00:46:28,200
Speaker 3: in your layout. Try to make sense for the people

970
00:46:28,239 --> 00:46:29,920
Speaker 3: as to how this normally shakes out.

971
00:46:30,400 --> 00:46:33,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, not a lot of historical profile here, obviously, this

972
00:46:33,040 --> 00:46:36,960
Speaker 2: is a fully narrative award. Who captured our imaginations and

973
00:46:37,000 --> 00:46:39,439
Speaker 2: came back. The only stats I have for you here

974
00:46:39,800 --> 00:46:43,200
Speaker 2: eleven out of fifteen have been quarterbacks. Duh. We like quarterbacks, right,

975
00:46:43,280 --> 00:46:45,239
Speaker 2: we pay attention to them. So quarterbacks are going to

976
00:46:45,280 --> 00:46:48,480
Speaker 2: win eleven out of fifteen. What'd you come back from?

977
00:46:48,840 --> 00:46:52,000
Speaker 2: They came back from an injury or health scare of

978
00:46:52,040 --> 00:46:55,000
Speaker 2: some sort. So like last year Gino Smith, what did

979
00:46:55,000 --> 00:46:58,280
Speaker 2: he come back from? Sucking? I guess like his career

980
00:46:58,600 --> 00:47:02,200
Speaker 2: too bad or yeah, right right. So if you are

981
00:47:02,280 --> 00:47:05,160
Speaker 2: not an injury or health scare guy, you probably need

982
00:47:05,200 --> 00:47:08,120
Speaker 2: to just come back from your career resurrecting and be

983
00:47:08,160 --> 00:47:10,240
Speaker 2: a quarterback. To do that, win a lot of games.

984
00:47:10,600 --> 00:47:12,880
Speaker 2: So keep that in mind. One thing is you do

985
00:47:12,960 --> 00:47:15,239
Speaker 2: have to win. Fourteen out of our fifteen guys made

986
00:47:15,239 --> 00:47:17,160
Speaker 2: the playoffs fourteen out of fifteen to one to nine

987
00:47:17,239 --> 00:47:20,080
Speaker 2: or more games, So you're not inspirational to us. If

988
00:47:20,120 --> 00:47:23,319
Speaker 2: you're four and thirteen, you gotta actually matter here. So

989
00:47:24,120 --> 00:47:27,600
Speaker 2: Tomorrow Hamlin is interesting here because depending on your book,

990
00:47:28,160 --> 00:47:31,239
Speaker 2: I've seen him as as short long I don't know.

991
00:47:31,600 --> 00:47:33,520
Speaker 2: Minus two seventy five is the best number I can

992
00:47:33,560 --> 00:47:36,920
Speaker 2: see out there. He's minus three fifty some places. I've

993
00:47:36,920 --> 00:47:39,400
Speaker 2: seen him as long as short, I don't know. I've

994
00:47:39,400 --> 00:47:42,200
Speaker 2: seen him minus seven hundred. They're asking us to bet

995
00:47:42,200 --> 00:47:45,719
Speaker 2: seven hundred dollars right now in August to give them

996
00:47:45,760 --> 00:47:49,640
Speaker 2: our money until February to return one hundred dollars in profit.

997
00:47:49,719 --> 00:47:53,840
Speaker 2: On toamorrow Hamlin. I have more to say about Hamlin,

998
00:47:53,880 --> 00:47:58,239
Speaker 2: but Jill, this seems ludicrous to me. Are you considering

999
00:47:58,280 --> 00:48:02,360
Speaker 2: Hamlin here? Look? I know, Oh, the narrative is obvious.

1000
00:48:02,520 --> 00:48:05,600
Speaker 2: The dude, it's amazing. He's even in the league and

1001
00:48:05,680 --> 00:48:09,000
Speaker 2: stepping foot on the field again. Is that enough? And

1002
00:48:09,040 --> 00:48:11,359
Speaker 2: he's the winner and this is over? Are you betting yet?

1003
00:48:11,400 --> 00:48:12,640
Speaker 2: Where are you at? And Demarhamlin?

1004
00:48:13,480 --> 00:48:16,200
Speaker 1: I think I'm aligned with you and reading your profile

1005
00:48:16,239 --> 00:48:18,640
Speaker 1: on Action Network about comeback Player of the Year. One

1006
00:48:18,680 --> 00:48:20,360
Speaker 1: of the points that you brought up was the fact

1007
00:48:20,360 --> 00:48:23,799
Speaker 1: that he's not really a traditional starter either, especially for

1008
00:48:23,840 --> 00:48:26,239
Speaker 1: the safeties for the Bills, when you've got Micah Hyde

1009
00:48:26,280 --> 00:48:29,800
Speaker 1: and Jordan Boyer. For me, I think, obviously it's a

1010
00:48:29,800 --> 00:48:33,239
Speaker 1: great story and there's a very good chance he will win,

1011
00:48:33,440 --> 00:48:37,240
Speaker 1: but I can't recommend anybody betting something minus ods like that.

1012
00:48:37,480 --> 00:48:41,120
Speaker 1: In August win, the narrative and story can completely change,

1013
00:48:41,160 --> 00:48:45,200
Speaker 1: like Matthew Stafford, for example, coming off an injury. He's

1014
00:48:45,239 --> 00:48:47,600
Speaker 1: around fifty to one for this award, but I'm not

1015
00:48:47,600 --> 00:48:49,440
Speaker 1: as high on the Rams this year, and I really

1016
00:48:49,440 --> 00:48:51,600
Speaker 1: don't trust him to stay healthy for seventeen games. He

1017
00:48:51,680 --> 00:48:54,680
Speaker 1: just takes too many hits. Plus he's already won this

1018
00:48:54,760 --> 00:48:57,000
Speaker 1: award before in his career. There's only been one two

1019
00:48:57,000 --> 00:48:59,640
Speaker 1: time winner of this award, Chad Pennington. You last time

1020
00:48:59,640 --> 00:49:03,600
Speaker 1: he won twenty eleven. So with Hamblin, I think that's

1021
00:49:03,680 --> 00:49:05,560
Speaker 1: my issue is that at least the last time we

1022
00:49:05,560 --> 00:49:07,520
Speaker 1: were kind of thinking about this, maybe I think of

1023
00:49:07,560 --> 00:49:10,200
Speaker 1: the Alex Smith year where he only played probably six

1024
00:49:10,280 --> 00:49:13,320
Speaker 1: or seven games, but it was such a heartfelt story

1025
00:49:13,360 --> 00:49:15,440
Speaker 1: and the fact that he was a quarterback, and the

1026
00:49:15,480 --> 00:49:18,160
Speaker 1: fact that Washington won and that he was an instrumental

1027
00:49:18,200 --> 00:49:20,799
Speaker 1: part of them winning. I think helped push that over

1028
00:49:20,840 --> 00:49:23,560
Speaker 1: the edge. I'm not sure if just showing up on

1029
00:49:23,600 --> 00:49:27,919
Speaker 1: the football field is enough to consider warranting as being

1030
00:49:28,200 --> 00:49:31,080
Speaker 1: this high of a favorite in August Brandon.

1031
00:49:31,120 --> 00:49:33,759
Speaker 3: If you're a fan of the Texans, John Mechi's gonna

1032
00:49:33,800 --> 00:49:36,080
Speaker 3: catch her attention, right, because that is a that.

1033
00:49:36,040 --> 00:49:37,279
Speaker 4: Is a wide receiver room.

1034
00:49:37,920 --> 00:49:40,080
Speaker 3: I know Robert Woods, I think his best years are

1035
00:49:40,120 --> 00:49:43,920
Speaker 3: behind him. But if Mechi leukemia acl to miss his

1036
00:49:44,120 --> 00:49:47,720
Speaker 3: entire rookie year, if he becomes the favorite target of CJ.

1037
00:49:47,840 --> 00:49:50,160
Speaker 3: Stroud and you're a fan of the Texans and what

1038
00:49:50,200 --> 00:49:52,760
Speaker 3: they're putting together, that to me is also something to consider.

1039
00:49:52,800 --> 00:49:54,480
Speaker 4: And he's a skill guy too, so he'll be on

1040
00:49:54,520 --> 00:49:57,280
Speaker 4: the field more. It's more involved than a Tomorrow Hamlin.

1041
00:49:57,600 --> 00:50:03,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean to me st from an award candidate purview,

1042
00:50:03,640 --> 00:50:06,520
Speaker 2: he's kind of DeMar Hamlin light in this scenario. Like

1043
00:50:06,560 --> 00:50:08,880
Speaker 2: I just I don't know if John Mitchi is in

1044
00:50:08,960 --> 00:50:12,000
Speaker 2: the conversation right. Everybody knows DeMar Hamlin because we all

1045
00:50:12,040 --> 00:50:14,319
Speaker 2: watched it, and we all saw it unfold and we're

1046
00:50:14,320 --> 00:50:17,319
Speaker 2: all hoping for the best all the way along. I

1047
00:50:17,360 --> 00:50:19,799
Speaker 2: don't know, if the public isn't invested yet in John

1048
00:50:19,880 --> 00:50:22,799
Speaker 2: Metchi and unless maybe that changes, maybe he has this

1049
00:50:22,880 --> 00:50:24,880
Speaker 2: great thousand yard season and the Texans are as good

1050
00:50:24,880 --> 00:50:27,200
Speaker 2: as I think, and maybe he explodes onto the scene,

1051
00:50:27,239 --> 00:50:30,640
Speaker 2: then great, I think that he then is in the conversation.

1052
00:50:30,760 --> 00:50:34,520
Speaker 2: But otherwise, if we're gonna give the award to the

1053
00:50:35,080 --> 00:50:36,960
Speaker 2: oh my gosh, how is he even on the field

1054
00:50:37,080 --> 00:50:40,400
Speaker 2: right now, candidate, it's tomor Hamlin, Like that's the case.

1055
00:50:40,560 --> 00:50:43,560
Speaker 2: So but yeah, you brought up Alex Smith. Joe, he

1056
00:50:43,600 --> 00:50:45,440
Speaker 2: went five to one down the stretch. They made the

1057
00:50:45,440 --> 00:50:49,879
Speaker 2: playoffs with him at quarterback. That mattered. Eric Berry came

1058
00:50:49,920 --> 00:50:52,920
Speaker 2: back from cancer on defense. He's the one defender in

1059
00:50:52,960 --> 00:50:54,680
Speaker 2: recent years. So that's the guy you're kind of looking

1060
00:50:54,760 --> 00:50:56,759
Speaker 2: here that he came back and played again. But Eric

1061
00:50:56,760 --> 00:50:59,719
Speaker 2: Berry played an all pro level for the Chiefs that

1062
00:51:00,200 --> 00:51:02,520
Speaker 2: like eleven or twelve games made the playoffs. The build

1063
00:51:02,560 --> 00:51:04,319
Speaker 2: are gonna make the playoffs and win those games. But

1064
00:51:04,719 --> 00:51:07,160
Speaker 2: we got Teddy Bruski came back and is like a

1065
00:51:07,200 --> 00:51:10,719
Speaker 2: core player of your Brandon your Patriots that he's the

1066
00:51:10,719 --> 00:51:13,279
Speaker 2: heart of the defense. Came back from a stroke later

1067
00:51:13,320 --> 00:51:16,440
Speaker 2: that year again, miracle to be on the field, but

1068
00:51:16,600 --> 00:51:19,360
Speaker 2: also you were really good, important part of the team,

1069
00:51:20,200 --> 00:51:22,480
Speaker 2: and I'm sorry that's not what DeMar Hamlin's role has

1070
00:51:22,520 --> 00:51:24,800
Speaker 2: been on this team so far. I hope that it changes,

1071
00:51:24,920 --> 00:51:28,200
Speaker 2: but I can't bet on it. For me, my best

1072
00:51:28,239 --> 00:51:30,279
Speaker 2: bet on this award, if I can word it this way,

1073
00:51:30,800 --> 00:51:33,839
Speaker 2: is don't bet on tomor Hamlin. I'm sorry like that

1074
00:51:33,880 --> 00:51:38,000
Speaker 2: from a betting perspective only, that cannot be the right investment.

1075
00:51:38,120 --> 00:51:41,680
Speaker 2: At a minus three hundred, five hundred seven hundred, it's

1076
00:51:42,000 --> 00:51:45,040
Speaker 2: just not a wise investment of your money from August

1077
00:51:45,080 --> 00:51:47,560
Speaker 2: to February to wins such a small amount for a

1078
00:51:47,600 --> 00:51:50,600
Speaker 2: thing that is way more open than we would like

1079
00:51:50,640 --> 00:51:53,080
Speaker 2: it to believe from the odds on this award right now.

1080
00:51:54,120 --> 00:51:56,879
Speaker 4: And Jill, you've got a best bet for this award.

1081
00:51:57,160 --> 00:52:00,320
Speaker 1: Best bet, but with a recommendation as only a sprinkle,

1082
00:52:00,440 --> 00:52:03,200
Speaker 1: because this is at seventy five to one right now

1083
00:52:03,360 --> 00:52:06,680
Speaker 1: at FanDuel. And again, I wouldn't put more than maybe

1084
00:52:06,719 --> 00:52:08,279
Speaker 1: like a little sprinkle, like a point one of a

1085
00:52:08,400 --> 00:52:10,920
Speaker 1: unit on it. But I'm looking at Saints wide receiver

1086
00:52:11,040 --> 00:52:14,760
Speaker 1: Michael Thomas, and we know his pedigree, we know his history,

1087
00:52:14,840 --> 00:52:17,120
Speaker 1: what he can do in the NFL and the stats

1088
00:52:17,120 --> 00:52:19,200
Speaker 1: he can put up. He just hasn't been healthy. He

1089
00:52:19,239 --> 00:52:21,399
Speaker 1: hasn't really played much at all over the last since

1090
00:52:21,440 --> 00:52:23,919
Speaker 1: twenty nineteen when he won Offensive Player of the Year.

1091
00:52:24,120 --> 00:52:26,359
Speaker 1: Now he did play three games last year. He caught

1092
00:52:26,360 --> 00:52:29,719
Speaker 1: three touchdowns in three games. And the encouraging thing I

1093
00:52:29,760 --> 00:52:32,360
Speaker 1: think as well, with the winning profile, the Saints have

1094
00:52:32,440 --> 00:52:34,440
Speaker 1: the easiest schedule in the NFL from a strength of

1095
00:52:34,440 --> 00:52:37,520
Speaker 1: schedule standpoint. They have a nice high win total. They're

1096
00:52:37,520 --> 00:52:40,000
Speaker 1: favored to win their division, so we could easily see

1097
00:52:40,040 --> 00:52:43,799
Speaker 1: double digit wins and potentially in a playoff Berth and

1098
00:52:44,120 --> 00:52:46,200
Speaker 1: Derek Carr is going to be a step up from

1099
00:52:46,239 --> 00:52:48,560
Speaker 1: Andy Dalton. I'm sorry, I'm not saying Derek Carr is

1100
00:52:48,680 --> 00:52:52,200
Speaker 1: this world changing quarterback, but Andy Dalton is still Andy

1101
00:52:52,239 --> 00:52:54,960
Speaker 1: Dalton and Derek Carr will be better on that front.

1102
00:52:55,239 --> 00:52:57,520
Speaker 1: And we see how he treats his wide receiver ones

1103
00:52:58,280 --> 00:53:01,120
Speaker 1: in this history as a and all you have to

1104
00:53:01,120 --> 00:53:03,480
Speaker 1: do is look at last year with Davonte Adams Notta.

1105
00:53:03,480 --> 00:53:04,359
Speaker 2: Adams finished with the.

1106
00:53:04,280 --> 00:53:07,600
Speaker 1: Most receiving touchdowns in the NFL, second most overall targets.

1107
00:53:07,800 --> 00:53:09,600
Speaker 1: I think if we see Michael Thomas play at least

1108
00:53:09,600 --> 00:53:12,479
Speaker 1: fifteen games We've got a great shot here at plus

1109
00:53:12,520 --> 00:53:13,360
Speaker 1: seventy five hundred.

1110
00:53:14,040 --> 00:53:17,520
Speaker 3: Okay, Derek Carr number twelve on Brandon Anderson's quarterback rankings,

1111
00:53:17,600 --> 00:53:18,879
Speaker 3: so he's got him up there.

1112
00:53:19,800 --> 00:53:20,680
Speaker 4: We got two more to go.

1113
00:53:20,719 --> 00:53:23,040
Speaker 3: We've got Offensive Player of the Year and Defensive Player

1114
00:53:23,080 --> 00:53:24,359
Speaker 3: of the Year. Let's try to get through these as

1115
00:53:24,400 --> 00:53:26,640
Speaker 3: quick as possible. Brandon, let's give us the layout on

1116
00:53:27,400 --> 00:53:28,640
Speaker 3: Offensive Player of the Year.

1117
00:53:29,200 --> 00:53:31,319
Speaker 2: Offensive Player of the Year, you're looking for basically your

1118
00:53:31,400 --> 00:53:34,040
Speaker 2: number one fantasy player. That's what this award is for.

1119
00:53:34,080 --> 00:53:36,840
Speaker 2: Who have the crazy outlier stats that no one saw coming.

1120
00:53:36,920 --> 00:53:39,200
Speaker 2: Here's what we're looking at. Running back three hundred and

1121
00:53:39,200 --> 00:53:42,319
Speaker 2: fifty carries, eighteen hundred yards, fourteen touchdowns over the last

1122
00:53:42,320 --> 00:53:45,760
Speaker 2: ten years. That's the average we need here, So monster season.

1123
00:53:46,120 --> 00:53:48,360
Speaker 2: If you need a receiver one hundred and forty catches,

1124
00:53:48,400 --> 00:53:51,680
Speaker 2: eighteen hundred yards, eleven scores, that's the sort of receiving season.

1125
00:53:51,680 --> 00:53:55,640
Speaker 2: You're looking at quarterbacks forty six hundred yards, forty four touchdowns,

1126
00:53:55,719 --> 00:53:58,879
Speaker 2: So you just need monster stats. Here's what I think

1127
00:53:58,960 --> 00:54:02,840
Speaker 2: is interesting about this. Running backs won all eight Offensive

1128
00:54:02,840 --> 00:54:04,520
Speaker 2: Player of the Year from nineteen ninety six to two

1129
00:54:04,560 --> 00:54:07,400
Speaker 2: thousand and three. Then we shifted to quarterbacks from O

1130
00:54:07,560 --> 00:54:11,759
Speaker 2: seven to sixteen. Seven out of ten quarterbacks now, three

1131
00:54:11,800 --> 00:54:14,520
Speaker 2: of the last four were receivers, So I think it's

1132
00:54:14,560 --> 00:54:17,560
Speaker 2: the receiver's era. I only really looked at receivers on

1133
00:54:17,600 --> 00:54:20,360
Speaker 2: this award, and I think that maybe buys us a

1134
00:54:20,400 --> 00:54:23,000
Speaker 2: little potential here if I'm right that this is a

1135
00:54:23,040 --> 00:54:26,360
Speaker 2: receiver's era, because there's a lot of quarterbacks and running

1136
00:54:26,360 --> 00:54:28,640
Speaker 2: backs that are getting numbers on here as well. So

1137
00:54:29,080 --> 00:54:32,080
Speaker 2: last thing you do have to win, You're gonna probably

1138
00:54:32,120 --> 00:54:34,360
Speaker 2: win if you put up numbers like that anyway, but

1139
00:54:34,400 --> 00:54:36,120
Speaker 2: our last ten offensive Player of the Year is all

1140
00:54:36,160 --> 00:54:38,640
Speaker 2: won at least ten games and average twelve wins.

1141
00:54:40,120 --> 00:54:42,839
Speaker 3: Okay, and Jill, you got this right last year with

1142
00:54:43,080 --> 00:54:45,879
Speaker 3: Justin Jefferson. You gave it out on this very podcast.

1143
00:54:46,640 --> 00:54:50,799
Speaker 3: So who might be the Joe Galant winner this year

1144
00:54:50,880 --> 00:54:51,680
Speaker 3: in twenty twenty.

1145
00:54:51,560 --> 00:54:54,799
Speaker 1: Three, Well, Brandon, I'm sorry, I have to look at

1146
00:54:54,880 --> 00:54:56,839
Speaker 1: running back, but it's the only running back I will

1147
00:54:56,840 --> 00:54:59,920
Speaker 1: look at for this because of how versatile he is.

1148
00:55:00,000 --> 00:55:02,319
Speaker 1: And that's Christian McCaffrey. And he's sitting right now at

1149
00:55:02,320 --> 00:55:04,719
Speaker 1: fourteen to one, just because he is that do it

1150
00:55:04,800 --> 00:55:06,640
Speaker 1: all stud. And you saw as soon as he got

1151
00:55:06,640 --> 00:55:08,560
Speaker 1: to the forty nine ers, it was like a cheat code.

1152
00:55:08,680 --> 00:55:11,239
Speaker 1: Like from week seven to Week eighteen he scored an

1153
00:55:11,239 --> 00:55:14,680
Speaker 1: eight of eleven games. He scored in all three playoff games. Now,

1154
00:55:14,760 --> 00:55:16,560
Speaker 1: they lost the first game that he was on the

1155
00:55:16,640 --> 00:55:19,200
Speaker 1: roster because he showed up like Thursday to play the

1156
00:55:19,280 --> 00:55:22,080
Speaker 1: Kansas City Chiefs storry, but and then didn't lose again

1157
00:55:22,160 --> 00:55:25,200
Speaker 1: until the NFC Championship game. Last year finished with two

1158
00:55:25,239 --> 00:55:28,520
Speaker 1: hundred and fifty six carries eighty five catches. That's the

1159
00:55:28,560 --> 00:55:31,439
Speaker 1: most since twenty nineteen. And I know the injury risk

1160
00:55:31,560 --> 00:55:35,120
Speaker 1: is real with Christian McCaffrey, But the reason why I'm

1161
00:55:35,200 --> 00:55:38,080
Speaker 1: willing to overcome that objection is because we've.

1162
00:55:37,840 --> 00:55:39,680
Speaker 2: Seen him do this. We've seen him.

1163
00:55:39,560 --> 00:55:42,600
Speaker 1: Have the thousand yard rushing, the thousand yard receiving, one

1164
00:55:42,640 --> 00:55:45,200
Speaker 1: hundred catches, you know, and the fact that he's got

1165
00:55:45,239 --> 00:55:48,360
Speaker 1: complimentary pieces like a Deebo Samuel and Eli Mitchell to

1166
00:55:48,400 --> 00:55:50,719
Speaker 1: spell him so he doesn't have to do twenty five

1167
00:55:50,760 --> 00:55:53,200
Speaker 1: carries a game. And you've got Kyle Yuscheck as a

1168
00:55:53,239 --> 00:55:55,720
Speaker 1: top three full back, Trent Williams the best left tackle

1169
00:55:55,760 --> 00:55:58,040
Speaker 1: in football, So I think we could see a thousand

1170
00:55:58,120 --> 00:56:01,920
Speaker 1: yards rushing one hundred catches team combined touchdowns. And if

1171
00:56:01,920 --> 00:56:04,280
Speaker 1: he's putting up those numbers and we see San Francisco

1172
00:56:04,320 --> 00:56:05,880
Speaker 1: at the top of the NFC, he's going to be

1173
00:56:05,880 --> 00:56:07,279
Speaker 1: in the mix all the way to the end of

1174
00:56:07,320 --> 00:56:09,400
Speaker 1: the season. And then all you gotta do is just

1175
00:56:09,480 --> 00:56:12,160
Speaker 1: listen to brand and during the season for potentially hedging

1176
00:56:12,160 --> 00:56:14,160
Speaker 1: opportunities and then maximize your profit.

1177
00:56:14,400 --> 00:56:15,799
Speaker 2: Here you go, Here you go.

1178
00:56:16,000 --> 00:56:18,319
Speaker 3: I mean, hey, Garrett Wilson last year for Offensive Rookie

1179
00:56:18,320 --> 00:56:19,600
Speaker 3: of the Year, that was something that we talked about

1180
00:56:19,640 --> 00:56:20,200
Speaker 3: mid season.

1181
00:56:20,520 --> 00:56:22,320
Speaker 4: Maybe he jumps, Is he a branded?

1182
00:56:22,400 --> 00:56:23,040
Speaker 2: Is he a target?

1183
00:56:23,080 --> 00:56:26,600
Speaker 3: Possibly because Aaron Rodgers loves himself some Garrett Wilson he does.

1184
00:56:26,680 --> 00:56:28,960
Speaker 2: I honestly looked at him. I was ready to just

1185
00:56:29,000 --> 00:56:31,319
Speaker 2: like dump all over him as short odds. But man,

1186
00:56:31,360 --> 00:56:34,560
Speaker 2: they don't have any other receivers. Garrett Wilson is a

1187
00:56:34,600 --> 00:56:36,879
Speaker 2: guy that could make the leap in year two. I'm

1188
00:56:36,880 --> 00:56:38,320
Speaker 2: gonna go with the different guy making the leap in

1189
00:56:38,400 --> 00:56:40,000
Speaker 2: year two. I'm gonna give you two names here, but

1190
00:56:40,120 --> 00:56:42,799
Speaker 2: my favorite pick here is sixty five to one, a

1191
00:56:42,880 --> 00:56:47,040
Speaker 2: different sophomore. Give me chrystl lave On the Saints. Basically

1192
00:56:47,040 --> 00:56:48,920
Speaker 2: the case you just made Jill, except I don't think

1193
00:56:48,920 --> 00:56:52,480
Speaker 2: Michael Thomas stays healthy, and if he doesn't, christ ol

1194
00:56:52,560 --> 00:56:54,439
Speaker 2: Lave is in line to get a lot of work.

1195
00:56:54,480 --> 00:56:58,320
Speaker 2: Grett Carr loves his top target. Chris ol Lave was

1196
00:56:58,400 --> 00:57:01,479
Speaker 2: really good last year, specifical running the seam route. That's

1197
00:57:01,480 --> 00:57:03,960
Speaker 2: the Darren Waller play. That's the thing that Derek Carr

1198
00:57:03,960 --> 00:57:07,839
Speaker 2: has been throwing for years and yards per route run.

1199
00:57:08,239 --> 00:57:11,879
Speaker 2: Here's the top nine in the league last year, Tyreek Kill,

1200
00:57:12,160 --> 00:57:17,760
Speaker 2: Justin Jefferson, Waddle, aj Brown, Chris Olave, number five, Devonte Adams,

1201
00:57:17,800 --> 00:57:21,240
Speaker 2: Amanal Saint Brown, Stefon Digg, Ceedee Lamb. That's a who's

1202
00:57:21,240 --> 00:57:24,240
Speaker 2: who of the best receivers in the NFL. These are

1203
00:57:24,280 --> 00:57:27,600
Speaker 2: all top two Fantasy round picks and it's Chris Olave.

1204
00:57:27,840 --> 00:57:30,760
Speaker 2: So he had one hundred and nineteen targets last year.

1205
00:57:31,120 --> 00:57:33,439
Speaker 2: I think with Carr they're going to pass more this year.

1206
00:57:33,720 --> 00:57:35,880
Speaker 2: He's going to get more targets. I'd save thirty or

1207
00:57:35,920 --> 00:57:38,640
Speaker 2: forty more targets. I think he's in the mix here

1208
00:57:38,680 --> 00:57:41,640
Speaker 2: and could break out and have that Justin Jefferson sort

1209
00:57:41,640 --> 00:57:44,360
Speaker 2: of season. So I was really surprised to see him

1210
00:57:44,400 --> 00:57:47,919
Speaker 2: so long at sixty five to one my outright pick here,

1211
00:57:48,200 --> 00:57:51,480
Speaker 2: and really these are just sprinkles because we're betting on

1212
00:57:51,800 --> 00:57:54,439
Speaker 2: unknown outliers. You got to play this more, like Jie

1213
00:57:54,440 --> 00:57:56,680
Speaker 2: said as the season went on. But I'll take Tyreek

1214
00:57:56,720 --> 00:57:59,120
Speaker 2: Hill twenty to one as well. He's who I just

1215
00:57:59,120 --> 00:58:02,240
Speaker 2: picked straight up against the field. Guys don't repeat win here,

1216
00:58:02,280 --> 00:58:05,400
Speaker 2: so Justin Jefferson probably out, Cooper Cup probably out. We

1217
00:58:05,400 --> 00:58:07,880
Speaker 2: have not had a repeat winner since Marshall Fulk in

1218
00:58:07,920 --> 00:58:10,800
Speaker 2: two thousand and one, I believe, other than quarterbacks, here's

1219
00:58:10,800 --> 00:58:13,160
Speaker 2: the numbers for Tyreek last year. He had ten games

1220
00:58:13,480 --> 00:58:17,000
Speaker 2: with seven or more catches. He had seven hundred yard games.

1221
00:58:17,400 --> 00:58:20,520
Speaker 2: He had four out of the sixteen games in the

1222
00:58:20,680 --> 00:58:23,280
Speaker 2: entire league with one hundred and sixty yards or more,

1223
00:58:23,400 --> 00:58:26,240
Speaker 2: he had a quarter of them. So I mentioned yards

1224
00:58:26,240 --> 00:58:28,320
Speaker 2: per route run just a second ago with the Lave,

1225
00:58:28,800 --> 00:58:30,720
Speaker 2: Tyreek Hill is number one with a bullet, and I

1226
00:58:30,800 --> 00:58:33,560
Speaker 2: mean with a bullet. The way this dude runs, he

1227
00:58:33,920 --> 00:58:37,200
Speaker 2: was almost three yards per route run. Second place was

1228
00:58:37,280 --> 00:58:39,800
Speaker 2: Justin Jefferson under two and a half. Like he is

1229
00:58:40,000 --> 00:58:43,640
Speaker 2: lopping the field that good. Through half the season last

1230
00:58:43,680 --> 00:58:46,320
Speaker 2: year he was on a two thousand yard pace Honestly,

1231
00:58:46,320 --> 00:58:47,920
Speaker 2: I think he would have won if Tua didn't get

1232
00:58:48,000 --> 00:58:50,640
Speaker 2: hurt down the stretch. So I think he's the candidate

1233
00:58:50,960 --> 00:58:53,480
Speaker 2: if I have to pick somebody. Right here, saw Sprinkle

1234
00:58:53,520 --> 00:58:55,919
Speaker 2: Tyreek twenty to one, and then Chris o'lave sixty five

1235
00:58:55,960 --> 00:58:56,280
Speaker 2: to one.

1236
00:58:56,920 --> 00:58:59,919
Speaker 3: Yeah, and even those receivers you mentioned Michael Thomas Drew

1237
00:59:00,040 --> 00:59:04,680
Speaker 3: Breeze at quarterback Cup Stafford Super Bowl year justin Jefferson.

1238
00:59:05,840 --> 00:59:07,479
Speaker 3: You know, the Vikings won a ton of one score

1239
00:59:07,520 --> 00:59:08,880
Speaker 3: games last year, but they won their division.

1240
00:59:08,880 --> 00:59:09,960
Speaker 4: They were really good teams, I think.

1241
00:59:10,120 --> 00:59:11,920
Speaker 3: I know you didn't lay this out in your outlook,

1242
00:59:11,960 --> 00:59:14,640
Speaker 3: but being on a good team the Saints with Olave

1243
00:59:15,000 --> 00:59:17,120
Speaker 3: favored to win the division. I know you guys like

1244
00:59:17,320 --> 00:59:20,280
Speaker 3: the Falcons a little bit to make some noise potentially,

1245
00:59:20,360 --> 00:59:23,840
Speaker 3: but that aligns too in a bad, bad conference.

1246
00:59:24,280 --> 00:59:26,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, and you know what's interesting with that. I noticed

1247
00:59:26,600 --> 00:59:28,840
Speaker 2: this as well about we only have these three receivers.

1248
00:59:28,840 --> 00:59:31,240
Speaker 2: So this is maybe over reading into it, but you

1249
00:59:31,280 --> 00:59:35,080
Speaker 2: mentioned obviously Jefferson had Kirk Cousins, and Thomas had Drew

1250
00:59:35,080 --> 00:59:39,920
Speaker 2: Brees and Teddy Bridgewater. I think for five games that season, Stafford,

1251
00:59:40,440 --> 00:59:43,840
Speaker 2: these are good quarterbacks. But you're looking you've mentioned my

1252
00:59:43,920 --> 00:59:48,000
Speaker 2: TV rankings. These are quarterbacks that late career breeze. These

1253
00:59:48,000 --> 00:59:50,640
Speaker 2: are like tenth to fifteenth best quarterbacks. These are not

1254
00:59:51,200 --> 00:59:55,920
Speaker 2: Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen Joe Burrow. So be careful

1255
00:59:56,080 --> 00:59:59,240
Speaker 2: because if you put up huge numbers like Jamar Chase,

1256
00:59:59,320 --> 01:00:02,200
Speaker 2: maybe but Joe Burrow is also on your team, maybe

1257
01:00:02,200 --> 01:00:04,840
Speaker 2: he just gets credit and wins MVP instead. I do

1258
01:00:04,920 --> 01:00:09,360
Speaker 2: think it's interesting that you need maybe not a stud quarterback,

1259
01:00:09,600 --> 01:00:11,880
Speaker 2: just a pretty good one, good enough to give you

1260
01:00:11,880 --> 01:00:14,640
Speaker 2: the ball, but bad enough that you're the star and

1261
01:00:14,680 --> 01:00:15,880
Speaker 2: not the quarterback. Right.

1262
01:00:15,920 --> 01:00:16,920
Speaker 4: It's a good point they give.

1263
01:00:17,080 --> 01:00:19,600
Speaker 3: It's almost like how we talk about does the quarterback

1264
01:00:19,640 --> 01:00:22,080
Speaker 3: have the weapons? Well, that's typically how you have to

1265
01:00:22,160 --> 01:00:25,240
Speaker 3: start your support for the quarterback. It means it's more

1266
01:00:25,240 --> 01:00:27,720
Speaker 3: about the weapons and the quarterback you follow me. So

1267
01:00:27,840 --> 01:00:29,560
Speaker 3: that's that's a good that's a good point. That's something

1268
01:00:29,560 --> 01:00:32,000
Speaker 3: that net lines up for a lave I think for sure,

1269
01:00:32,000 --> 01:00:33,560
Speaker 3: and Tyreek Kill with TUA.

1270
01:00:34,920 --> 01:00:38,160
Speaker 4: And Christian McCaffrey with brock Party. So that's that's good stuff.

1271
01:00:38,360 --> 01:00:40,959
Speaker 2: All future MVP brock Party to you, sir.

1272
01:00:41,280 --> 01:00:45,680
Speaker 3: Okay, all right, let's wrap up Defensive Player of the year.

1273
01:00:45,880 --> 01:00:48,640
Speaker 4: Who normally wins this award? Brandon? And who might you like?

1274
01:00:49,240 --> 01:00:51,439
Speaker 2: We want a pass rusher. Eight of our last ten

1275
01:00:51,560 --> 01:00:54,840
Speaker 2: have been pass rushers, one corner, one off ball linebacker.

1276
01:00:55,000 --> 01:00:58,720
Speaker 2: So those pass rushers have averaged almost seventeen sacks over

1277
01:00:58,760 --> 01:01:01,200
Speaker 2: the last ten years, at eleven for all of them.

1278
01:01:01,320 --> 01:01:04,760
Speaker 2: So you want to pass rusher again, flash stats, it's

1279
01:01:04,800 --> 01:01:07,800
Speaker 2: the easy way to go. Average age here is twenty six.

1280
01:01:08,560 --> 01:01:10,520
Speaker 2: Seven of our ten are in the age range from

1281
01:01:10,520 --> 01:01:12,320
Speaker 2: twenty five to twenty seven, So we kind of want

1282
01:01:12,360 --> 01:01:14,880
Speaker 2: someone in their prime, not someone going too far past that.

1283
01:01:15,320 --> 01:01:18,600
Speaker 2: No one since Charles Woodson in their thirties two thousand

1284
01:01:18,600 --> 01:01:21,600
Speaker 2: and nine for him. And then we don't necessarily need

1285
01:01:21,640 --> 01:01:24,960
Speaker 2: you to be on the best defense. Average finish here

1286
01:01:25,000 --> 01:01:28,400
Speaker 2: defensively for these guys last decade only about the tenth

1287
01:01:28,640 --> 01:01:32,280
Speaker 2: best points per game allowed in ninth defensive DVA. You

1288
01:01:32,320 --> 01:01:35,080
Speaker 2: don't necessarily have to be on the number one defense,

1289
01:01:35,560 --> 01:01:36,760
Speaker 2: just you know, you have to be on a good

1290
01:01:36,760 --> 01:01:40,160
Speaker 2: defense because that will matter. So I like this award

1291
01:01:40,280 --> 01:01:43,959
Speaker 2: just because, again, defensive awards are more predictable than you think.

1292
01:01:44,000 --> 01:01:46,040
Speaker 2: The field here is not as wide as we like

1293
01:01:46,080 --> 01:01:48,160
Speaker 2: it to believe, So I'm going to go back to

1294
01:01:48,320 --> 01:01:50,080
Speaker 2: what I did last year did not work out for

1295
01:01:50,120 --> 01:01:52,560
Speaker 2: me on this podcast. I built a two man position

1296
01:01:53,120 --> 01:01:55,160
Speaker 2: and both of my guys got hurt. So I'm going

1297
01:01:55,200 --> 01:01:58,120
Speaker 2: to build a position again. I'm gonna do a crazy

1298
01:01:58,160 --> 01:02:01,960
Speaker 2: position here. I like all three favorites, and I'm taking

1299
01:02:02,080 --> 01:02:05,080
Speaker 2: all three favorites because I think their odds are all

1300
01:02:05,080 --> 01:02:07,560
Speaker 2: too long. I think the odds for these guys at

1301
01:02:07,560 --> 01:02:10,440
Speaker 2: twenty thirty forty to one are should be like one

1302
01:02:10,480 --> 01:02:12,880
Speaker 2: hundred to one. It's gonna be one of our top

1303
01:02:13,000 --> 01:02:15,360
Speaker 2: seven eight guys on the list. We just picked the

1304
01:02:15,360 --> 01:02:18,400
Speaker 2: top defender. Like, I don't know who's good at defense.

1305
01:02:18,480 --> 01:02:20,680
Speaker 2: I this guy has twenty sacks. He must be the

1306
01:02:20,680 --> 01:02:22,640
Speaker 2: defensive player of the year. I'm sorry, but that's kind

1307
01:02:22,640 --> 01:02:24,080
Speaker 2: of what I think the voters are doing here. So

1308
01:02:24,520 --> 01:02:27,160
Speaker 2: Micah parsons he would be my top pick. He's got

1309
01:02:27,200 --> 01:02:31,200
Speaker 2: the best odds plus five fifty Miles Garrett for Cleveland

1310
01:02:31,240 --> 01:02:34,760
Speaker 2: plus eight hundred TJ. A. Watt Pittsburgh had him last year,

1311
01:02:35,160 --> 01:02:37,080
Speaker 2: had interception in the sack the first game, and then

1312
01:02:37,080 --> 01:02:39,880
Speaker 2: he got hurt. Sorry for me, He's plus eight to fifty.

1313
01:02:40,160 --> 01:02:42,920
Speaker 2: I'm gonna take all three. I think It sounds crazy

1314
01:02:42,960 --> 01:02:45,439
Speaker 2: to take all three favorites, but I get all three

1315
01:02:45,440 --> 01:02:48,439
Speaker 2: together for plus one seventy here, I think I'm gonna

1316
01:02:48,480 --> 01:02:51,280
Speaker 2: have a very good chance, better than fifty to fifty

1317
01:02:51,280 --> 01:02:53,600
Speaker 2: to win the award. So I don't know which one

1318
01:02:53,640 --> 01:02:56,080
Speaker 2: I like all three. I truly couldn't pick them. So

1319
01:02:56,200 --> 01:02:57,240
Speaker 2: I'm just gonna take all three.

1320
01:02:58,240 --> 01:03:00,520
Speaker 3: Okay, Jill, one of those three you are a fan of,

1321
01:03:00,560 --> 01:03:01,320
Speaker 3: and who might that be?

1322
01:03:02,080 --> 01:03:02,720
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'll help you.

1323
01:03:02,800 --> 01:03:04,400
Speaker 1: I'll help you pick a favorite of the three TV

1324
01:03:05,240 --> 01:03:08,240
Speaker 1: at plus eight hundred, mainly because a lot of the

1325
01:03:08,240 --> 01:03:10,880
Speaker 1: profile you just explained. Now, the one part of that

1326
01:03:10,920 --> 01:03:12,840
Speaker 1: profile is being a little bit younger. He's going to

1327
01:03:12,880 --> 01:03:15,320
Speaker 1: turn twenty nine in October, so I guess this is

1328
01:03:15,360 --> 01:03:17,600
Speaker 1: going to be his last hurrah. But from an edge

1329
01:03:17,640 --> 01:03:20,960
Speaker 1: rusher standpoint, prior to this twenty twenty two there was

1330
01:03:21,040 --> 01:03:23,480
Speaker 1: nobody better from that department. He led the league in

1331
01:03:23,520 --> 01:03:26,440
Speaker 1: total sacks from twenty nineteen to twenty twenty one, fifty

1332
01:03:26,480 --> 01:03:29,080
Speaker 1: sacks and forty six games. Now he only finished with

1333
01:03:29,080 --> 01:03:32,280
Speaker 1: five and a half last year, but again dealing with

1334
01:03:32,320 --> 01:03:34,880
Speaker 1: that injury, missed seven games. But really it was night

1335
01:03:34,920 --> 01:03:36,800
Speaker 1: and day for the Steelers when he was on the field.

1336
01:03:37,080 --> 01:03:39,320
Speaker 1: In ten games he played, Pittsburgh is eight and two,

1337
01:03:39,600 --> 01:03:42,000
Speaker 1: held opponents to an average of fourteen point three points

1338
01:03:42,000 --> 01:03:44,400
Speaker 1: per game. In the seven games he missed, they were

1339
01:03:44,400 --> 01:03:46,520
Speaker 1: one and six, they gave up twenty five point two

1340
01:03:46,520 --> 01:03:49,240
Speaker 1: points per game. So again, it's a pretty obvious night

1341
01:03:49,280 --> 01:03:51,760
Speaker 1: and day comparison here. And one of the reasons why

1342
01:03:51,960 --> 01:03:54,240
Speaker 1: I'm interested to see how his odds are going to

1343
01:03:54,280 --> 01:03:56,120
Speaker 1: fluctuate is because he's got a pretty good test in

1344
01:03:56,120 --> 01:03:58,240
Speaker 1: Week one against the San Francisco forty nine ers, and

1345
01:03:58,240 --> 01:03:59,959
Speaker 1: I'm interested to see where they line him up. Because

1346
01:04:00,040 --> 01:04:02,320
Speaker 1: they put him outside of Trent Williams, He's probably not

1347
01:04:02,360 --> 01:04:03,920
Speaker 1: going to get as much done. But if he's on

1348
01:04:03,960 --> 01:04:06,240
Speaker 1: the right side of that old line, which is much weaker,

1349
01:04:06,520 --> 01:04:09,160
Speaker 1: he is going to wreak havoc. And if they get

1350
01:04:09,160 --> 01:04:11,640
Speaker 1: the they also get the Browns, the Texans, and the

1351
01:04:11,720 --> 01:04:14,520
Speaker 1: Raiders to finish the opening month. There's a very legitimate

1352
01:04:14,600 --> 01:04:16,200
Speaker 1: chance he could have six and a half to eight

1353
01:04:16,240 --> 01:04:17,960
Speaker 1: sacks in the opening month of the season.

1354
01:04:18,080 --> 01:04:19,440
Speaker 2: So if he's.

1355
01:04:19,320 --> 01:04:21,640
Speaker 1: Already at that point, we're gonna see those odd shifts

1356
01:04:21,680 --> 01:04:22,880
Speaker 1: even better in our favor.

1357
01:04:22,960 --> 01:04:23,919
Speaker 2: So I love TJ.

1358
01:04:24,080 --> 01:04:26,960
Speaker 1: Watt to win another Defensive Player of the Award at

1359
01:04:27,000 --> 01:04:27,760
Speaker 1: plus eight hundred.

1360
01:04:27,920 --> 01:04:30,240
Speaker 3: I'm glad you brought up the record with and without

1361
01:04:30,280 --> 01:04:33,480
Speaker 3: that is stunning, not really stunning when you think about

1362
01:04:33,480 --> 01:04:35,280
Speaker 3: how impactful he is, but it's drastic.

1363
01:04:35,320 --> 01:04:36,920
Speaker 4: It's a huge drop off when he doesn't play.

1364
01:04:37,200 --> 01:04:41,320
Speaker 3: Okay, So with all that, after that full breakdown, excellent stuff.

1365
01:04:41,360 --> 01:04:43,000
Speaker 4: Guys, what jumps out.

1366
01:04:42,920 --> 01:04:45,040
Speaker 3: And you may have based on your tone and your

1367
01:04:45,040 --> 01:04:47,880
Speaker 3: excitement and I could sense what was your best bet

1368
01:04:47,880 --> 01:04:50,400
Speaker 3: in that whole episode, but best bet from each of you,

1369
01:04:50,440 --> 01:04:52,480
Speaker 3: and then we'll get out of here from that whole show.

1370
01:04:52,640 --> 01:04:55,200
Speaker 2: I'm gonna go first because Anderson stick together. It's Will

1371
01:04:55,240 --> 01:04:57,800
Speaker 2: Anderson plus five hundred Defensive Rookie of the Year. I

1372
01:04:57,880 --> 01:04:59,800
Speaker 2: said it when we were there. It's my favorite bet

1373
01:04:59,840 --> 01:05:02,560
Speaker 2: of the podcast. I'm gonna be on more of these podcasts.

1374
01:05:02,600 --> 01:05:04,919
Speaker 2: It's gonna be my favorite beat of all those podcasts too.

1375
01:05:05,320 --> 01:05:08,360
Speaker 2: Stop listening, go bet well, listen to Jill's PEG. Then

1376
01:05:08,520 --> 01:05:11,200
Speaker 2: turn off your podcast and go bet on Will Anderson

1377
01:05:11,360 --> 01:05:13,040
Speaker 2: five to one Defensive Workie of the Year.

1378
01:05:13,720 --> 01:05:16,040
Speaker 1: I keep thinking you're speaking in like third person every

1379
01:05:16,080 --> 01:05:17,200
Speaker 1: time you bring up Anderson.

1380
01:05:17,280 --> 01:05:19,000
Speaker 2: So yeah, TJ.

1381
01:05:19,120 --> 01:05:21,240
Speaker 1: Watt Defensive Player of the Year at plus eight hundred

1382
01:05:21,280 --> 01:05:23,720
Speaker 1: and bijon for Offensive Rookie the Year plus three hundred.

1383
01:05:23,760 --> 01:05:25,479
Speaker 1: Those two are my best bets for the twenty twenty

1384
01:05:25,480 --> 01:05:26,040
Speaker 1: three season.

1385
01:05:26,480 --> 01:05:30,400
Speaker 3: Excellent, Excellent, and check out both of these guys, Brandon Anderson,

1386
01:05:31,120 --> 01:05:34,080
Speaker 3: Will Brandon Anderson and Joe Gallant in the Action app

1387
01:05:34,120 --> 01:05:36,160
Speaker 3: when they add and they've already added some of these

1388
01:05:36,160 --> 01:05:38,360
Speaker 3: in the app a while back and some that are

1389
01:05:38,720 --> 01:05:42,360
Speaker 3: coming in now over in the Action App. These futures picks,

1390
01:05:42,640 --> 01:05:45,160
Speaker 3: these award picks, so be sure to do so. That

1391
01:05:45,360 --> 01:05:48,680
Speaker 3: is our NFL Awards Best Bets episode for Joe Galant,

1392
01:05:48,680 --> 01:05:50,160
Speaker 3: Brandon Anderson, Brendan glas Sheen.

1393
01:05:50,520 --> 01:05:52,880
Speaker 4: Thanks for tuning in. Hope you're all enjoying our.

1394
01:05:52,840 --> 01:05:55,240
Speaker 3: NFL pods that are coming out here on the Action

1395
01:05:55,320 --> 01:05:58,760
Speaker 3: Network podcast all leading up to NFL Week one. Thanks

1396
01:05:58,760 --> 01:06:01,720
Speaker 3: for tuning into the Action Network podcast presented by FanDuel.

1397
01:06:01,720 --> 01:06:02,880
Speaker 4: We'll talk to you again next time.

1398
01:06:10,040 --> 01:06:14,120
Speaker 3: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

1399
01:06:14,160 --> 01:06:16,640
Speaker 3: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

1400
01:06:16,680 --> 01:06:19,080
Speaker 3: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred.

1401
01:06:19,080 --> 01:06:19,520
Speaker 2: Gambler