WEBVTT - Preparing for the Next Pandemic

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser and I'm

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stanovk. We're here every day bringing

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<v Speaker 1>you the latest news from the world to business and finance,

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<v Speaker 1>plus technology, politics, economics, all purtnising the power of Business

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<v Speaker 1>Week reporters and editors, not to mention our journalists and

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<v Speaker 1>You can also listen to our radio show at two

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<v Speaker 1>pm Eastern Time on Bloomberg Radio or watch us on

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<v Speaker 1>YouTube search Bloomberg Global News. A few headlines we just

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<v Speaker 1>want to mention, uh in terms of COVID number of

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<v Speaker 1>recorded COVID nineteen fatalities surpassing five million. As the world

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<v Speaker 1>continue to roll out the biggest vaccination program in history,

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<v Speaker 1>some seven billion shots have been administered across the globe

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<v Speaker 1>and effort that has really helped to slow the pace

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<v Speaker 1>of deaths. And here in the US we're set to

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<v Speaker 1>surpass a new milestone in vaccination efforts. Today of adults

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<v Speaker 1>will have received at least one dose of the vaccine.

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<v Speaker 1>So that's some good news. Yeah, that that feels like

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<v Speaker 1>a pretty significant number. We saw Maderna, though under a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of rusher, down almost close to seven percent at

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<v Speaker 1>it's lows here after the Covin nineteen shot, though failed

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<v Speaker 1>to win US regulatory authorization for teenagers, the US FDA

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<v Speaker 1>saying it needs more time to consider the biotech company

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<v Speaker 1>shots in this age group, as the agency moles the

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<v Speaker 1>risk of a rare heart inflammation. All right, let's get

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<v Speaker 1>to it. A go to voice for us on the

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<v Speaker 1>pandemic over the past eighteen nineteen months and counting. Dr

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<v Speaker 1>Sandra Galia, he's doing a professor at Boston University School

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<v Speaker 1>of Public Health. He's got a new book at the

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<v Speaker 1>Contagion Next Time, because folks, there's gonna be a next time.

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<v Speaker 1>He joins us again on the phone from Boston. The

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<v Speaker 1>book is called The Contagion Next Time. The other stuff

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<v Speaker 1>I just added in Dr Galia. Great to have you

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<v Speaker 1>here with Tim and myself. How are you? Um? Well,

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<v Speaker 1>thank your girl, Thank you and you and Tim for

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<v Speaker 1>having me on again. Well, it's good to have you here.

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<v Speaker 1>You always help make sense of the deluge of headlines

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<v Speaker 1>that come out when it comes to the pandemic and

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<v Speaker 1>the vaccine um. In terms of kids getting the vaccine,

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<v Speaker 1>are you hopeful? Does it feel like we're moving forward,

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<v Speaker 1>that that's going to be a significant accomplishment maybe the

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<v Speaker 1>next few months. Yeah, I am hopeful. I think it's

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<v Speaker 1>a step in the right direction. And as we've discussed before,

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<v Speaker 1>and as we know, kids have been at low risk

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<v Speaker 1>of getting COVID and low risk of being sick from COVID.

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<v Speaker 1>Having said that, they represent a group that potentially could

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<v Speaker 1>have a symptomatic COVID and pass it on to others.

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<v Speaker 1>So having kids vaccinated first of all protect tickets themselves,

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<v Speaker 1>of course, but I think also reduces the number of

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<v Speaker 1>people in the population who are susceptible to COVID and

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<v Speaker 1>reducing transmission fundamentally. Where we want to get to right

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<v Speaker 1>now when you were mentioning in the intro but of

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<v Speaker 1>adults having at least one shot, is having few and

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<v Speaker 1>fewer and fewer people who are susceptible to the virus

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<v Speaker 1>so that the virus stops transmitting. Given that we've seen

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<v Speaker 1>hesitancy among US adults for many months about getting a vaccine,

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<v Speaker 1>do you think that parents will be hesitant to give

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<v Speaker 1>this vaccine to kids if, like you said, kids have

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<v Speaker 1>shown that they are not as affected by COVID. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>I suppose there are two ways of looking at that.

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<v Speaker 1>I think undoubtedly we're going to see some hesitancy, but

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<v Speaker 1>we also are much more are accustomed to having kids

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<v Speaker 1>be vaccinated. Obviously, there are many mandatory pediatric vaccines that

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<v Speaker 1>kids have to show proof of before going to school,

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<v Speaker 1>so I'm hoping that that will offset some of the incitancy.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm worried that the vaccine for kids comes at a

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<v Speaker 1>time when we've been talking seemingly endlessly about vaccine hesitancy,

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<v Speaker 1>which undoubted little color some of the reaction to vaccinating kids.

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<v Speaker 1>But I think all parents and parents listening need to

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<v Speaker 1>know that the FDA takes safety enormously, sues for the

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<v Speaker 1>first thing they look at, and these vaccines are safe

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<v Speaker 1>and effective for kids. Hey, Dr Gilia, what about when

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<v Speaker 1>it comes to mixing and matching? And people who listen

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<v Speaker 1>regularly know that this is a conversation, Caroline, I have

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<v Speaker 1>had a lot both on air and constantly. We're still

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<v Speaker 1>trying to make sense of it. Vaccines. What do we

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<v Speaker 1>need to know about potentially getting a moderna booster and

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<v Speaker 1>you know, vice versa. Yeah, the data are not not

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<v Speaker 1>as sharp as one would like them to be. But

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<v Speaker 1>more or less, we know that mixing and matching is

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<v Speaker 1>actually fine. There's some question as to what are not

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<v Speaker 1>actually Mixing and magic might be better than getting the

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<v Speaker 1>same kind of vaccine, but I'm not entirely sure that

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<v Speaker 1>that's that's certainly right, I got modern at the first time,

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<v Speaker 1>and I got a booster of mittern as well. Um.

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<v Speaker 1>But I think fundamentally what matters is anybody who's all

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<v Speaker 1>rule for a booster should get a booster. And it

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<v Speaker 1>doesn't really matter which one of these vaccines one gets.

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<v Speaker 1>We we've actually been quite lucky, as we've discussed previously

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<v Speaker 1>on your show, that these vaccines are actually excellent. They

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<v Speaker 1>really are highly applicationous vaccines with excellent safety profiles, and

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<v Speaker 1>that that's actually a remarkable achievement, right, It certainly has.

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<v Speaker 1>It does feel like it's helped us in our fight

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<v Speaker 1>against this pandemic um, because we need to be ready

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<v Speaker 1>for the next time. And you write about this the

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<v Speaker 1>contagion next time, I mean it's going to happen. Correct.

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<v Speaker 1>This may have been a first for many of us

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<v Speaker 1>in terms of a generation of understanding what a pandemic

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<v Speaker 1>is like, but there will be more. There will be

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<v Speaker 1>And we've had many closenesses. I mean, stars one which

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<v Speaker 1>was about ten years ago, was was an extraordinarily close miss,

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<v Speaker 1>and that that was a virus which was perhaps less

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<v Speaker 1>transmissible but potentially more lethal then Source copey Do, which

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<v Speaker 1>is the virus behind the COVID nineteen. So the odds

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<v Speaker 1>are it will happen, and it's not a matter of if,

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<v Speaker 1>but a matter of when. So it seems to me

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<v Speaker 1>like now is the time for us to start thinking

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<v Speaker 1>about what do we need to do to mitigate the

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<v Speaker 1>next pandemic? What do we need to do well in

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<v Speaker 1>the same breath as I mentioned and that vaccines have

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<v Speaker 1>been excellent, They've been efficacious and safe, and I think

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<v Speaker 1>we definitely need to do work on making sure we

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<v Speaker 1>have rapid availability of vaccines and detection of pathogens and

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<v Speaker 1>all that. I argue in the book that that's not enough.

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<v Speaker 1>And the reason I argued that is because the consequences

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<v Speaker 1>of COVID were fundamentally social consequences, economic consequences that reflect

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<v Speaker 1>things that we were doing poorly before COVID hit, and

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<v Speaker 1>I argue that we should tend to those things just

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<v Speaker 1>to give one concrete example, we as a country are

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<v Speaker 1>live sicker, shorter lives than do all other high income countries,

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<v Speaker 1>meaning we have higher prevalence of things like diabetes, hyppertension,

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<v Speaker 1>and those are actually the conditions that made us vulnerable

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<v Speaker 1>to COVID, because COVID has a higher severity among people

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<v Speaker 1>with underlying conditions, and that those are the people have

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<v Speaker 1>been a greater risk of dying. So we should be

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<v Speaker 1>looking at what is it that causes those diseases? Why

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<v Speaker 1>are we at higher prevalence than other high income countries

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<v Speaker 1>and dealing with them now, not when we have another pandemic?

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<v Speaker 1>Dr Galia, are you optimistic here? Help help? As Carol mentioned,

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<v Speaker 1>you don't seem to have woken up on the wrong

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<v Speaker 1>side of the bed. I'm just being cynical today, but

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<v Speaker 1>I just bring it out there. I just don't see

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<v Speaker 1>I I don't see I don't see evidence yet of

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<v Speaker 1>a shift in American public health following this pandemic. I

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<v Speaker 1>am going to be optimistic because I prefer alternative Okay.

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<v Speaker 1>I actually think that that it is a good time

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<v Speaker 1>to have hope, that that we are paying attention to

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<v Speaker 1>issues that we should have been paying attention to years

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<v Speaker 1>and decades ago. Now will we or will we not? Well?

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<v Speaker 1>I think it behooves us to have the conversations that

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<v Speaker 1>pushes us forward. Colleague recently said we are at the

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<v Speaker 1>moment of a renaissance of these ideas, and I actually

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<v Speaker 1>think that captures it beautifully. I think we are at

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<v Speaker 1>the moment where we are realizing that unless we tend

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<v Speaker 1>to some fundamentals in our world, the next pandemic will

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<v Speaker 1>hit and we'll hit us just as hard, it's not harder.

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<v Speaker 1>So the moment is now. If we don't tender these

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<v Speaker 1>things now, I'm not sure when we will, And frankly,

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<v Speaker 1>if another pandemic, kids will be sitting ducks and will

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<v Speaker 1>deserve the consequences that come with it. So let's talk

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<v Speaker 1>about health care, something you know so well, and you

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<v Speaker 1>guys there at Boston University, you know you are are

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<v Speaker 1>educating the next generation who will be figuring out wellness

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<v Speaker 1>health medical policies for years to come. How do we

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<v Speaker 1>change the system that is so entrenched on dealing with

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<v Speaker 1>you when you're sick versus really thinking about keeping you well.

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<v Speaker 1>I think you're captured it well. Fundamentally, we want to

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<v Speaker 1>orient our system to reward providers to keep people well

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<v Speaker 1>rather than to treat people when they're sick. Now, there

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<v Speaker 1>are many different ways of doing that, and we can

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<v Speaker 1>get into the mittigridy of health policy, but I think

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<v Speaker 1>there are efforts moving in that regard. I had the

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<v Speaker 1>privilege of conversation with the administrator of CMS Decenter for

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<v Speaker 1>Medicaid and Medicare Services a few weeks ago, and I

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<v Speaker 1>think she's committed to this idea to innovating programs in

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<v Speaker 1>in that direction. And you are seeing it in a

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<v Speaker 1>big health system. So organizations like Kaiser, for example, that

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<v Speaker 1>are launching programs to incentivize their doctors to keep people healthy.

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<v Speaker 1>None of us really like going to the doctor, right.

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<v Speaker 1>We actually want to be as healthy for as long

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<v Speaker 1>as possible. But we have been going through a system

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<v Speaker 1>where my incentive, which is just to stay healthy, is

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<v Speaker 1>not the same as my doctors incentive, which is to

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<v Speaker 1>have me sick so I can go see him as

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<v Speaker 1>much as I can so that he can build and

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<v Speaker 1>and that needs to change, and that needs to change

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<v Speaker 1>so that we together see that our shared value is

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<v Speaker 1>staying healthy and living healthy, long lives. You really said that, now,

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<v Speaker 1>Like that's interesting, right, I mean you actually went there

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<v Speaker 1>that I mean, for give me. But the medical community

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<v Speaker 1>benefits when we're sick, it does well. I mean, I

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<v Speaker 1>don't think this tradition give you no I know, but

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<v Speaker 1>people don't at least say it. And if if you

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<v Speaker 1>talk to people within the medical community, doctors don't say right.

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<v Speaker 1>Doctors don't say I'm a doctor and I'm saying it.

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<v Speaker 1>And I think that is a misalignment. And you know,

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<v Speaker 1>I think doctors go into medical school to do the

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<v Speaker 1>right thing. Doctors in the medical school to keep people healthy.

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<v Speaker 1>But then of course we stream people through the ways

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<v Speaker 1>in which we incentivize them and pay them. And then

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<v Speaker 1>doctors are rational actors and they operate with in the system.

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<v Speaker 1>So it requires system change. It requires us to accept

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<v Speaker 1>that collectively we want to stay healthy. That means we

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<v Speaker 1>want our healthcare system to keep us healthy, and we

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<v Speaker 1>want to invest in parks and clean air and drinkable

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<v Speaker 1>water and safe food, all of which also keep us healthy.

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<v Speaker 1>So if there's one lever you could pull that would

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<v Speaker 1>make a big significant change in making sure that we're

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<v Speaker 1>all focused on keeping people well. And just got about

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<v Speaker 1>forty seconds, what would that lever? What would be the

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<v Speaker 1>lever you would, Paul, I think as at one lever,

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<v Speaker 1>I would actually make sure that everybody in understand the

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<v Speaker 1>next presidential debate, the presidential candidates are are grilled with

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<v Speaker 1>questions about what are you going to do to keep

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<v Speaker 1>people healthy? Not just to make them better when they're sick,

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<v Speaker 1>because I think then we'll see true investment at federal, state,

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<v Speaker 1>local levels in the structures that make us healthy. Yeah. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>it's tough. And you know what's hard though, too is

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<v Speaker 1>for politicians. What matters for voters is how much money

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<v Speaker 1>do I have? What am I taking home? Do I

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<v Speaker 1>have a job, do I feel confident? What's the economy

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<v Speaker 1>and the economic outlook? How much money each month is

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<v Speaker 1>going to healthcare? Too? Um, Really thoughtful stuff. Dr Sandra Galia,

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<v Speaker 1>thank you so much. Dean Boston University, School of Public

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<v Speaker 1>Health on the phone from Boston. Check out his new book.

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<v Speaker 1>It is called The Contagion. Next time, this is Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>Business Week with Carol Masser and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim

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<v Speaker 1>Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. Well, eighteen billion dollars in emergency

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<v Speaker 1>loans to eight seven countries to get through the pandemic.

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<v Speaker 1>Got one and eighteen billions? Did I did I leave

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<v Speaker 1>off a number? Oh? I must have ye, hundred and

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<v Speaker 1>eighteen billions. Lot, it's a lot. And over understanding This

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<v Speaker 1>is the crux of this story. Over understanding or accounting

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<v Speaker 1>of where much of it went en eighteen That's kind

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<v Speaker 1>of what this story is about. I don't know where

0:11:11.679 --> 0:11:14.720
<v Speaker 1>it went. How much are we talking about? All right,

0:11:14.760 --> 0:11:17.839
<v Speaker 1>let's get to it. Jonius right now is the reporter

0:11:17.880 --> 0:11:21.280
<v Speaker 1>who wrote at Bloomberg News, senior investigations writer Sheridan Process.

0:11:21.320 --> 0:11:23.199
<v Speaker 1>She joins us on the phone in Washington, d c

0:11:24.080 --> 0:11:28.600
<v Speaker 1>Um Sharon, tell us about this story. What's going on? Alright,

0:11:28.640 --> 0:11:32.640
<v Speaker 1>good afternoons. Yeah, it's it's fascinating. You know, this is

0:11:32.720 --> 0:11:35.719
<v Speaker 1>public money, a hundred and eighteen billion dollars that the

0:11:35.800 --> 0:11:38.079
<v Speaker 1>I M MAP said, Look, we're going to rush this

0:11:38.200 --> 0:11:42.599
<v Speaker 1>out and try to help countries UH with the COVID pandemic,

0:11:42.880 --> 0:11:45.800
<v Speaker 1>and we will get the money out in a hurry.

0:11:46.360 --> 0:11:50.680
<v Speaker 1>But as the funds managing director said Christaline to George Eva,

0:11:50.800 --> 0:11:53.640
<v Speaker 1>she said, do whatever it takes to fight the pandemic,

0:11:53.720 --> 0:11:56.160
<v Speaker 1>but make sure you keep the receipts. And the reason

0:11:56.280 --> 0:11:58.679
<v Speaker 1>is because some of those countries have been required to

0:11:58.760 --> 0:12:01.920
<v Speaker 1>audit how they spent that money afterwards, and now it's

0:12:01.920 --> 0:12:04.400
<v Speaker 1>about eighteen months later, we're trying to figure out where

0:12:04.440 --> 0:12:07.760
<v Speaker 1>it all went. Who is requiring them to audit? Be

0:12:07.880 --> 0:12:11.719
<v Speaker 1>I Mass as a condition of dispersing more loans to

0:12:11.840 --> 0:12:13.839
<v Speaker 1>some of these countries, has said, look, we'll give you

0:12:13.960 --> 0:12:16.400
<v Speaker 1>more money if you can come up with an audit

0:12:16.520 --> 0:12:18.559
<v Speaker 1>of how you spent that last COVID money that we

0:12:18.679 --> 0:12:21.920
<v Speaker 1>gave you. And so it's quite interesting to see the

0:12:21.960 --> 0:12:24.560
<v Speaker 1>countries that have been required to do these audits. In fact,

0:12:24.679 --> 0:12:28.400
<v Speaker 1>only forty countries, less than half out of the seven

0:12:28.480 --> 0:12:31.080
<v Speaker 1>that received the loans in the first place, have been

0:12:31.160 --> 0:12:33.440
<v Speaker 1>required to come up with an account of how they

0:12:33.520 --> 0:12:37.520
<v Speaker 1>spent that money. Well, and what's interesting is that you know, um,

0:12:38.280 --> 0:12:40.680
<v Speaker 1>here we go. And it's just another reminder that during

0:12:40.720 --> 0:12:44.000
<v Speaker 1>the pandemic listen, everybody was racing to understand what was

0:12:44.080 --> 0:12:46.840
<v Speaker 1>going on, trying to figure out how to fix the situation.

0:12:47.080 --> 0:12:48.679
<v Speaker 1>I mean, I was spending like a hundred dollars on

0:12:48.760 --> 0:12:51.520
<v Speaker 1>ten and nine masks at the time, so I wasn't

0:12:51.520 --> 0:12:53.400
<v Speaker 1>saving receipts. I mean, Joel, this is where we were

0:12:53.440 --> 0:12:56.040
<v Speaker 1>blueboard business. We get our Joe Webber joining our conversation.

0:12:56.120 --> 0:12:59.439
<v Speaker 1>I mean we were frantically trying to do things. Governments

0:12:59.480 --> 0:13:01.760
<v Speaker 1>were throwing money at things. I mean, there's going to

0:13:01.800 --> 0:13:03.800
<v Speaker 1>be screw ups totally. But we're so far past that

0:13:03.840 --> 0:13:05.559
<v Speaker 1>point where now we get to look back and second

0:13:05.600 --> 0:13:07.920
<v Speaker 1>guess everything and try and find bids of dollars that

0:13:07.960 --> 0:13:10.400
<v Speaker 1>walked out the door. So so she how far along

0:13:10.480 --> 0:13:14.640
<v Speaker 1>into the audit process are all the countries that receives

0:13:14.679 --> 0:13:18.040
<v Speaker 1>some of those some of this money. Well, very interestingly,

0:13:18.160 --> 0:13:20.079
<v Speaker 1>we know that some of the countries have done the

0:13:20.080 --> 0:13:23.200
<v Speaker 1>audits that were required. For example, Nigeria was the biggest

0:13:23.280 --> 0:13:25.599
<v Speaker 1>recipient of this money. They got three point for a

0:13:25.679 --> 0:13:28.520
<v Speaker 1>billion dollars. They have done an audited apparently, but we

0:13:28.840 --> 0:13:31.640
<v Speaker 1>don't have public access to it, so we don't know

0:13:31.720 --> 0:13:34.520
<v Speaker 1>how much of their money got misspendam disappropriated. But what

0:13:34.640 --> 0:13:37.800
<v Speaker 1>we do know is that in countries like Cameroon and

0:13:38.160 --> 0:13:42.800
<v Speaker 1>Malawi and even Congo to DRC, we are starting to

0:13:42.880 --> 0:13:46.080
<v Speaker 1>see the results of those audits being published and they're

0:13:46.160 --> 0:13:50.160
<v Speaker 1>showing that hundreds of millions of dollars at least so

0:13:50.360 --> 0:13:54.760
<v Speaker 1>far has been misappropriated. Um Now, Transparency International has been

0:13:54.800 --> 0:13:57.600
<v Speaker 1>trying to track this and figure out where this money went.

0:13:57.760 --> 0:13:59.599
<v Speaker 1>And it's quite interesting that when you ask the I

0:13:59.720 --> 0:14:01.800
<v Speaker 1>m F the about it, what they like to say is, well,

0:14:01.880 --> 0:14:03.920
<v Speaker 1>we disburse the money and it went to those countries,

0:14:04.320 --> 0:14:08.520
<v Speaker 1>and those countries they spent their money then on COVID relief,

0:14:08.600 --> 0:14:10.839
<v Speaker 1>so you can't really trace it back to us and

0:14:10.920 --> 0:14:13.000
<v Speaker 1>say it was ours at that point. So there's a

0:14:13.000 --> 0:14:15.559
<v Speaker 1>little bit of a transparency issue in terms of who

0:14:15.760 --> 0:14:17.719
<v Speaker 1>is going to be accountable for this well. As Tim

0:14:17.760 --> 0:14:20.000
<v Speaker 1>said to me during the break before you started problems

0:14:20.160 --> 0:14:23.440
<v Speaker 1>in the Congo, yeah, I mean shocking well, and it's led,

0:14:23.480 --> 0:14:26.560
<v Speaker 1>as you write share, it's led to former health minister

0:14:26.800 --> 0:14:31.440
<v Speaker 1>being arrested in August, though he has publicly denied the allegation. Hey, Sherry,

0:14:31.440 --> 0:14:33.520
<v Speaker 1>I'm wondering if there are any examples, any reporting of

0:14:34.120 --> 0:14:36.720
<v Speaker 1>countries where the debits equal to credits, where things do

0:14:36.840 --> 0:14:40.760
<v Speaker 1>add up. You know, we're not even getting that level

0:14:40.800 --> 0:14:43.360
<v Speaker 1>of this disclosure at this point. Um. There are certainly

0:14:43.440 --> 0:14:46.000
<v Speaker 1>some countries that, especially in Latin Herricket, that have put

0:14:46.080 --> 0:14:49.239
<v Speaker 1>in place, uh, these kind of websites where you supposedly

0:14:49.280 --> 0:14:51.520
<v Speaker 1>are able to go on and see the contracts that

0:14:51.640 --> 0:14:55.560
<v Speaker 1>were awarded and who got them. Um. This was also

0:14:55.600 --> 0:14:57.760
<v Speaker 1>in some cases required by the NMF, and the im

0:14:57.760 --> 0:15:00.480
<v Speaker 1>not says, well, if you include that universe of countries,

0:15:00.520 --> 0:15:03.040
<v Speaker 1>then we actually do have quite a lot of accountability

0:15:03.080 --> 0:15:07.280
<v Speaker 1>out there. But the question of whether and when these

0:15:07.320 --> 0:15:09.920
<v Speaker 1>audits of the misspending are ever going to be released

0:15:10.280 --> 0:15:12.120
<v Speaker 1>is a good one. But you know that's said. I mean,

0:15:12.440 --> 0:15:14.640
<v Speaker 1>the i m F had a very difficult dilemma at

0:15:14.680 --> 0:15:16.040
<v Speaker 1>the time. I mean, this is one of the most

0:15:16.600 --> 0:15:22.200
<v Speaker 1>difficult things that UM, that a relief effort can can

0:15:22.320 --> 0:15:25.360
<v Speaker 1>ask is do you push the money out quickly, UM

0:15:25.440 --> 0:15:27.320
<v Speaker 1>and try to just hope and make sure it gets

0:15:27.360 --> 0:15:29.200
<v Speaker 1>to some of the right places, or do you take

0:15:29.360 --> 0:15:33.000
<v Speaker 1>longer time to put state guards in place and then

0:15:33.400 --> 0:15:37.240
<v Speaker 1>in that event you also cause lives j loss. You know,

0:15:37.320 --> 0:15:40.400
<v Speaker 1>I think the speed at which money was deployed I

0:15:40.480 --> 0:15:42.200
<v Speaker 1>kind of joked earlier, but I mean I think it

0:15:42.320 --> 0:15:46.320
<v Speaker 1>was imperative considering the circumstances. But there are also has been,

0:15:46.440 --> 0:15:49.120
<v Speaker 1>you know, some precedent for this and that eventually would

0:15:49.120 --> 0:15:52.280
<v Speaker 1>ask for receipts. Isn't that right, Jerry? This is the

0:15:52.360 --> 0:15:55.520
<v Speaker 1>first time really that we are starting to actually see,

0:15:56.160 --> 0:15:59.200
<v Speaker 1>um this this level of accountability you know, the IMF

0:15:59.360 --> 0:16:04.720
<v Speaker 1>only released in t to put into place, uh, increased

0:16:04.800 --> 0:16:08.920
<v Speaker 1>safeguards for corrupt anti corruption measures. And so this is

0:16:09.000 --> 0:16:12.840
<v Speaker 1>actually the first kind of global crisis in which we

0:16:13.040 --> 0:16:15.760
<v Speaker 1>do have at least some attempts to try to figure

0:16:15.760 --> 0:16:19.720
<v Speaker 1>out where that money has gone. And we're in general

0:16:19.800 --> 0:16:23.680
<v Speaker 1>we've gotten better at tracking down um missing money for this.

0:16:23.840 --> 0:16:27.440
<v Speaker 1>And you spoke with people at Transparency International, what what

0:16:28.000 --> 0:16:32.040
<v Speaker 1>kind of perspective did they offer on on being able

0:16:32.080 --> 0:16:35.120
<v Speaker 1>to monitor this much money? You go, I'm missing? So

0:16:35.680 --> 0:16:38.800
<v Speaker 1>what groups like Transparency International and also Human Rights Watch

0:16:38.840 --> 0:16:40.560
<v Speaker 1>has been looking at this too. What they'd like to

0:16:40.640 --> 0:16:45.400
<v Speaker 1>see is actually just a lot more accountability and transparency

0:16:45.480 --> 0:16:48.040
<v Speaker 1>on the on the part of these governments in terms

0:16:48.080 --> 0:16:52.840
<v Speaker 1>of their spending, what sorts of contracts and uh kind

0:16:52.880 --> 0:16:55.160
<v Speaker 1>of you know, just the receipts and everything that that

0:16:55.320 --> 0:16:58.240
<v Speaker 1>the IMF had asked for to be available online. And

0:16:59.000 --> 0:17:01.400
<v Speaker 1>the idea is that when you do that, then you

0:17:01.560 --> 0:17:04.200
<v Speaker 1>have civil society in each of these countries to be

0:17:04.280 --> 0:17:06.760
<v Speaker 1>able to follow up. You have media pressure, you have

0:17:07.240 --> 0:17:09.840
<v Speaker 1>you know, various forces to be able to say, hey,

0:17:09.880 --> 0:17:13.879
<v Speaker 1>look this money was misspent. That money, you know, looks

0:17:13.880 --> 0:17:15.720
<v Speaker 1>like it went to the right place and that actually

0:17:15.760 --> 0:17:18.040
<v Speaker 1>acts as as a as a checks and balances on

0:17:18.119 --> 0:17:20.240
<v Speaker 1>the whole system. Well, the whole point is, you know,

0:17:20.359 --> 0:17:22.439
<v Speaker 1>and you hope for some change because ultimately we may

0:17:22.520 --> 0:17:25.240
<v Speaker 1>joke about it and not surprised to see maybe you know,

0:17:25.320 --> 0:17:27.119
<v Speaker 1>in some of these parts of the world developing in

0:17:27.160 --> 0:17:29.520
<v Speaker 1>particular where there's you know, it's business as usual in

0:17:29.640 --> 0:17:33.960
<v Speaker 1>terms of misallocation of funds or more severe. But people

0:17:34.000 --> 0:17:38.440
<v Speaker 1>are impacted as a result, right for sure. I mean

0:17:38.560 --> 0:17:43.080
<v Speaker 1>what what Transparency International says is, you know, look, whenever,

0:17:43.480 --> 0:17:46.720
<v Speaker 1>whenever you have this misallocation of money, it's it's not

0:17:46.840 --> 0:17:49.800
<v Speaker 1>just about money, It's about lives, right, It's about less

0:17:49.840 --> 0:17:53.280
<v Speaker 1>money for ventilators, less money for mobile hospitals and ppe

0:17:53.800 --> 0:17:56.639
<v Speaker 1>and you know, it really comes down to people who

0:17:56.960 --> 0:17:59.480
<v Speaker 1>just aren't getting the relief at the very bottom of

0:17:59.560 --> 0:18:04.440
<v Speaker 1>the food same. So what will change going forward if

0:18:04.560 --> 0:18:08.200
<v Speaker 1>more money uh leaves the m f H to to

0:18:08.640 --> 0:18:11.680
<v Speaker 1>you know, countries and need are there any safeguards that

0:18:11.760 --> 0:18:14.000
<v Speaker 1>have been in place put in place now that weren't

0:18:14.040 --> 0:18:17.360
<v Speaker 1>there a year ago? But the must says that they

0:18:17.760 --> 0:18:21.399
<v Speaker 1>are as as a condition of some of the future

0:18:21.520 --> 0:18:25.240
<v Speaker 1>loans that they're giving out their demanding more accountability, more transparency.

0:18:25.760 --> 0:18:27.560
<v Speaker 1>Of course, a lot of these countries, as we know,

0:18:27.720 --> 0:18:30.400
<v Speaker 1>I mean they you know, even at the best of times,

0:18:30.680 --> 0:18:34.479
<v Speaker 1>they really sort of lacked safeguards and they're spending uh

0:18:34.640 --> 0:18:37.119
<v Speaker 1>you know, sometimes can't always be traced quite so easily.

0:18:37.119 --> 0:18:40.480
<v Speaker 1>It doesn't mean there's necessarily, you know, embeddlement of people

0:18:40.600 --> 0:18:44.040
<v Speaker 1>rushing off money in his bank account. Sure do we

0:18:44.119 --> 0:18:46.560
<v Speaker 1>gotta run, but it's uh definitely start. We should check

0:18:46.560 --> 0:18:49.280
<v Speaker 1>out at Bloomberg dot com dot com shod in Process

0:18:49.400 --> 0:18:51.680
<v Speaker 1>senior investigations report at Bloomberg News and our thanks to

0:18:51.720 --> 0:19:01.600
<v Speaker 1>Joel Webber, editor a Business Week. This is Bloomberg Business

0:19:01.720 --> 0:19:05.520
<v Speaker 1>Week with Carol Masser and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stenovic

0:19:05.880 --> 0:19:08.719
<v Speaker 1>on Bloomberg Radio. You are listening to Bloomberg Business Week

0:19:08.760 --> 0:19:11.119
<v Speaker 1>Carol Master along with Tim Stanovic and in Focus this

0:19:11.200 --> 0:19:14.840
<v Speaker 1>week Top twenty six meeting in Glasgow, Scotland. Top of

0:19:14.920 --> 0:19:17.560
<v Speaker 1>mine for everyone there whether rivalry between the world's two

0:19:17.600 --> 0:19:20.960
<v Speaker 1>biggest polluters who churn out, cough up you can pick

0:19:21.000 --> 0:19:26.000
<v Speaker 1>your description some global admissions they are the big polluters?

0:19:26.080 --> 0:19:28.720
<v Speaker 1>Will they both be agents of change? Our roadblocks in

0:19:28.760 --> 0:19:31.520
<v Speaker 1>the process and he wrote about it in the Saturday column.

0:19:31.600 --> 0:19:34.639
<v Speaker 1>Andy Brown is editorial director at Bloomberg New Economy. He

0:19:34.800 --> 0:19:38.440
<v Speaker 1>joins us on the phone from New York City. So, Andy,

0:19:38.520 --> 0:19:41.159
<v Speaker 1>the rivalry between the US and China doesn't It's not

0:19:41.280 --> 0:19:43.920
<v Speaker 1>just when it comes to technology, it's not just when

0:19:43.960 --> 0:19:48.760
<v Speaker 1>it comes to physical might. It also comes to the

0:19:48.840 --> 0:19:53.240
<v Speaker 1>green ambitions. So who is going to win here are

0:19:53.280 --> 0:19:58.360
<v Speaker 1>the incentives aligned? Well? The question, the question, I think

0:19:58.520 --> 0:20:01.920
<v Speaker 1>is whether these two trees they're going to race each

0:20:01.960 --> 0:20:05.439
<v Speaker 1>other to the top or to the bottom on climate Um,

0:20:05.760 --> 0:20:09.840
<v Speaker 1>it's pretty obvious that we're not going to get decarbonization

0:20:10.160 --> 0:20:12.880
<v Speaker 1>in the time frame that we needed and at scale

0:20:13.119 --> 0:20:18.480
<v Speaker 1>which we needed without real collaboration, deep collaboration between the

0:20:18.640 --> 0:20:21.919
<v Speaker 1>US and China. Um. They are, as you just noted,

0:20:22.040 --> 0:20:27.000
<v Speaker 1>the world's two largest polluters account of all polluted pollute,

0:20:27.320 --> 0:20:31.480
<v Speaker 1>all emissions, China is by far the biggest China. China

0:20:31.560 --> 0:20:36.080
<v Speaker 1>is has more emissions than all developing countries combined. These

0:20:36.119 --> 0:20:39.440
<v Speaker 1>emissions are bigger than the next four countries combined, that's

0:20:39.800 --> 0:20:44.920
<v Speaker 1>the United States, in Japan and Russia and so But

0:20:45.119 --> 0:20:48.080
<v Speaker 1>also they have, you know, some of the best world's

0:20:48.119 --> 0:20:53.080
<v Speaker 1>best technologies at both ai superpowers. They have the biggest

0:20:53.200 --> 0:20:58.760
<v Speaker 1>pools of research scientists, um, you know, and and it's

0:20:58.800 --> 0:21:03.359
<v Speaker 1>hard to imagine that technologies that we need coming on

0:21:03.680 --> 0:21:06.359
<v Speaker 1>stream at scale without the two of them working to

0:21:06.440 --> 0:21:09.080
<v Speaker 1>go and not just on the technologies themselves, but on

0:21:09.280 --> 0:21:13.879
<v Speaker 1>the regulations, on the standards, on the trading systems that

0:21:14.040 --> 0:21:16.960
<v Speaker 1>will be required. You know, it's like a bad family

0:21:17.080 --> 0:21:21.959
<v Speaker 1>spat Andy, I think about this in that will they

0:21:22.080 --> 0:21:25.680
<v Speaker 1>decide to kind of bridge their differences and understand that

0:21:25.920 --> 0:21:29.160
<v Speaker 1>for the greater good of humanity? Really, when we're talking

0:21:29.160 --> 0:21:32.439
<v Speaker 1>about climate change, will these two nations put aside their

0:21:32.480 --> 0:21:36.960
<v Speaker 1>differences and do the right thing? Is their political will

0:21:37.240 --> 0:21:41.119
<v Speaker 1>geopolitical will? Is there? You know, a social consciousness of

0:21:41.200 --> 0:21:43.880
<v Speaker 1>the two to really set it straight, especially when you've

0:21:43.920 --> 0:21:47.800
<v Speaker 1>got the United States has flip flopped Trump versus maybe

0:21:47.840 --> 0:21:51.359
<v Speaker 1>where we are today and prior to President Trump. And

0:21:51.400 --> 0:21:54.760
<v Speaker 1>then you've also got China who is all in on

0:21:54.920 --> 0:21:57.280
<v Speaker 1>coal still, but they're also very aggressive when it comes

0:21:57.320 --> 0:22:01.679
<v Speaker 1>to green It's a great question. So we've we've got

0:22:01.760 --> 0:22:04.000
<v Speaker 1>two examples of what happens when the U. S. And

0:22:04.119 --> 0:22:08.400
<v Speaker 1>China decide to collaborate and what happens when they don't.

0:22:09.119 --> 0:22:12.960
<v Speaker 1>And the first was in two thousand and fifteen UM,

0:22:13.440 --> 0:22:19.080
<v Speaker 1>and it was really deaf us diplomacy that got China

0:22:19.320 --> 0:22:25.040
<v Speaker 1>on board UM disagreement to limit temperature increases to one

0:22:25.080 --> 0:22:29.720
<v Speaker 1>point five degrees centigrade above UM pre industrial levels and

0:22:29.840 --> 0:22:34.920
<v Speaker 1>well below two degrees. Without China UM, that agreement would

0:22:34.960 --> 0:22:37.280
<v Speaker 1>not have occurred. That was that was a real triumph

0:22:37.320 --> 0:22:42.360
<v Speaker 1>of American diplomacy UM. In two thousand and nine, which

0:22:42.480 --> 0:22:47.680
<v Speaker 1>was the previous United Nations meeting um UH, this meeting

0:22:47.840 --> 0:22:53.879
<v Speaker 1>ended in complete disarray UM. China was the spoiler, and

0:22:54.160 --> 0:22:57.320
<v Speaker 1>things got so bad that at one point China's chief

0:22:57.640 --> 0:23:02.720
<v Speaker 1>Climate negotiated you don't want ends up raising his voice

0:23:02.840 --> 0:23:07.680
<v Speaker 1>literally yelling President then President Obama UM for having a

0:23:07.720 --> 0:23:10.720
<v Speaker 1>temerity to walk into a room where Chinese Premier Wa

0:23:10.800 --> 0:23:13.840
<v Speaker 1>Jaba was having meetings where they believe that the Indians

0:23:13.920 --> 0:23:20.720
<v Speaker 1>and the South Africans UM so and unfortunately the atmosphere

0:23:20.760 --> 0:23:25.879
<v Speaker 1>is surrounding the Glasgow Scotland talks UM much care simply

0:23:26.040 --> 0:23:30.359
<v Speaker 1>is much more similar to Copenhagen UH than to Paris.

0:23:30.880 --> 0:23:34.760
<v Speaker 1>In fact, relations between these two countries have not been

0:23:35.080 --> 0:23:39.600
<v Speaker 1>as bad UM since they were restored, All since they've

0:23:39.600 --> 0:23:44.080
<v Speaker 1>stablished diplomatic relations UM you know, and and the the

0:23:44.359 --> 0:23:47.120
<v Speaker 1>Americans are saying to the Chinese, listen, we've got lots

0:23:47.200 --> 0:23:51.159
<v Speaker 1>of problems on the military, on the security, on trade,

0:23:51.240 --> 0:23:56.160
<v Speaker 1>investment in song, but let's carve out this area um

0:23:56.760 --> 0:24:00.840
<v Speaker 1>of climate change where we can collaborate for the good

0:24:00.880 --> 0:24:04.240
<v Speaker 1>of humanity and the Chinese a basis saying, you know,

0:24:04.600 --> 0:24:07.760
<v Speaker 1>no way, you don't get to play with us. We

0:24:07.840 --> 0:24:10.280
<v Speaker 1>don't you know, we're not gonna play play play ball

0:24:10.359 --> 0:24:14.159
<v Speaker 1>with you on climate and and and and and be

0:24:14.280 --> 0:24:18.320
<v Speaker 1>at loggerheads on everything else. Andy, what would constructive competition

0:24:18.440 --> 0:24:20.560
<v Speaker 1>look like? Though, because you do raise in your column

0:24:20.840 --> 0:24:23.320
<v Speaker 1>some important points about what China is doing right now

0:24:23.640 --> 0:24:26.800
<v Speaker 1>in terms of production of solar panels and and actually

0:24:26.880 --> 0:24:30.680
<v Speaker 1>use of electric vehicles. Yeah. Well, I mean if you

0:24:30.760 --> 0:24:35.439
<v Speaker 1>if you take some of the most promising technologies um

0:24:36.000 --> 0:24:40.120
<v Speaker 1>around for instance, you know, green hydrogen or carbon capture

0:24:40.320 --> 0:24:44.040
<v Speaker 1>and storage. A lot of these technologies of Bill Gates

0:24:44.240 --> 0:24:47.760
<v Speaker 1>was pointing out in an opened in the Financial Times,

0:24:47.800 --> 0:24:51.920
<v Speaker 1>like it was yesterday. They've been invented and now they required.

0:24:52.400 --> 0:24:56.200
<v Speaker 1>What's required is that is to model them, um and

0:24:56.320 --> 0:24:59.840
<v Speaker 1>then roll them out at scale. Um. Well, you know,

0:25:00.080 --> 0:25:03.600
<v Speaker 1>China is the place where you can actually do this. Um,

0:25:03.960 --> 0:25:06.159
<v Speaker 1>you know, it has the world's biggest market. One in

0:25:06.400 --> 0:25:12.560
<v Speaker 1>three solar panels and wind turbines are deployed in China.

0:25:12.880 --> 0:25:16.200
<v Speaker 1>Half of all the evs in the world in China.

0:25:16.920 --> 0:25:19.080
<v Speaker 1>Um you know. But but doing that is going to

0:25:19.200 --> 0:25:23.159
<v Speaker 1>require the US and China collaborating around the technology. And

0:25:23.200 --> 0:25:26.440
<v Speaker 1>if you think about the electric car, what is it, Well,

0:25:26.640 --> 0:25:28.800
<v Speaker 1>you know you've got a lithium ion battery and guess

0:25:28.880 --> 0:25:34.600
<v Speaker 1>what China has of the global output of lithium iron batteries.

0:25:34.800 --> 0:25:39.080
<v Speaker 1>It also requires technology hardware, and guess what you know

0:25:39.240 --> 0:25:43.320
<v Speaker 1>pretty much every advanced semiconductor in the world is built

0:25:43.440 --> 0:25:48.920
<v Speaker 1>with US technology. Now, if if, if, if, automats automakers

0:25:49.119 --> 0:25:52.240
<v Speaker 1>can't be sure that they can integrate these US and

0:25:52.440 --> 0:25:56.720
<v Speaker 1>Chinese technologies in a single vehicle, it's going to seriously

0:25:57.600 --> 0:26:03.920
<v Speaker 1>impede the rapid development of CONTE one example of what

0:26:04.160 --> 0:26:07.320
<v Speaker 1>needs to happen very very quickly for the world to

0:26:07.400 --> 0:26:12.359
<v Speaker 1>avoid the worst. Never more have we needed collaboration between

0:26:12.359 --> 0:26:14.040
<v Speaker 1>the U S and China. Andy, Thank you so much.

0:26:14.119 --> 0:26:16.919
<v Speaker 1>Andy Brown, editorial director at Bloomberg New Economy. Check out

0:26:17.000 --> 0:26:18.920
<v Speaker 1>his column. You can sign up for the New Economy

0:26:18.960 --> 0:26:23.080
<v Speaker 1>daily newsletter at Bloomberg dot com slash New hyphen Economy.

0:26:23.440 --> 0:26:27.000
<v Speaker 1>You're listening to Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and

0:26:27.119 --> 0:26:31.880
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stenovic on Bloomberg Radio. So something

0:26:31.960 --> 0:26:34.200
<v Speaker 1>we all seem not to be able to get enough of.

0:26:34.520 --> 0:26:36.840
<v Speaker 1>It's also something we'll be talking about this week him

0:26:36.840 --> 0:26:40.000
<v Speaker 1>at the upcoming Bloomberg Life Financial Innovations Conference. It's about

0:26:40.040 --> 0:26:43.760
<v Speaker 1>crypto Wall Street amassing a crypto army and paying up

0:26:43.880 --> 0:26:47.359
<v Speaker 1>for recruits. Banks and financial firms added one thousand crypto

0:26:47.520 --> 0:26:51.240
<v Speaker 1>rose crypto roles since two thousand eighteen, and they're getting

0:26:51.280 --> 0:26:52.920
<v Speaker 1>some pay bumps. Yeah, it's one of the most read

0:26:52.960 --> 0:26:54.720
<v Speaker 1>stories on the Bloomberg today. So let's get to it

0:26:54.800 --> 0:26:57.960
<v Speaker 1>with Bloomberg News Finance and Investing reporter Eleanor's song. She's

0:26:57.960 --> 0:27:01.600
<v Speaker 1>in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker's studio here in New York City.

0:27:01.640 --> 0:27:05.280
<v Speaker 1>So Eleanor, what's going on here? So we're seeing banks

0:27:05.400 --> 0:27:08.680
<v Speaker 1>really ramping up their pay and and crypto hires in

0:27:08.720 --> 0:27:11.280
<v Speaker 1>the past three and five years. And another set of

0:27:11.320 --> 0:27:14.000
<v Speaker 1>LinkedIn data shows that the number of annual new hires

0:27:14.240 --> 0:27:17.720
<v Speaker 1>has more than tripled since sounds like a lot, yes,

0:27:18.000 --> 0:27:22.560
<v Speaker 1>yes for sure, and um these positions can include researchers, traders,

0:27:22.760 --> 0:27:25.960
<v Speaker 1>risk analysts, as well as engineers and colders. And we're

0:27:26.000 --> 0:27:29.000
<v Speaker 1>saying that a pay bunk pay pumps. So there are

0:27:29.520 --> 0:27:34.520
<v Speaker 1>um offering a premium for a mid level trader or

0:27:34.600 --> 0:27:38.480
<v Speaker 1>banker role compartable over a comfortable position at the same institution.

0:27:38.960 --> 0:27:42.440
<v Speaker 1>And then yes for for roles that like head of

0:27:42.520 --> 0:27:45.920
<v Speaker 1>crypto teams, research team, trading teams, they could get the

0:27:46.000 --> 0:27:50.720
<v Speaker 1>number of premium as highlights. Wow, what's so interesting about

0:27:50.720 --> 0:27:52.920
<v Speaker 1>this is it's all happening when there's this sort of

0:27:52.960 --> 0:27:56.520
<v Speaker 1>bifurcation happening between big banks and startups that are well,

0:27:56.560 --> 0:27:59.440
<v Speaker 1>are they fintech companies? Are they banks? What do you

0:27:59.520 --> 0:28:04.280
<v Speaker 1>regulates think? It's kind of unclear, Yeah, exactly. And these

0:28:04.560 --> 0:28:08.399
<v Speaker 1>startups are actually competing with banks in hiring cryptal talent.

0:28:08.840 --> 0:28:11.560
<v Speaker 1>I talked to so many people moving from banks to

0:28:11.760 --> 0:28:14.600
<v Speaker 1>the crypto native space, and they are all saying that

0:28:14.760 --> 0:28:18.080
<v Speaker 1>they are hiring extensively from the traditional finance market. So

0:28:18.240 --> 0:28:21.119
<v Speaker 1>this is so fascinating because we were talking before we

0:28:21.200 --> 0:28:24.600
<v Speaker 1>got going that for how long the traditional financial firms,

0:28:24.640 --> 0:28:28.720
<v Speaker 1>big banks, Wall Street firms for years go back, certainly five, seven,

0:28:28.840 --> 0:28:31.120
<v Speaker 1>ten years ago. We're saying this crypto thing, I don't

0:28:31.160 --> 0:28:33.879
<v Speaker 1>know so much about it. Um, what what do they

0:28:33.920 --> 0:28:36.000
<v Speaker 1>say when you reach out to them? Are they willing

0:28:36.080 --> 0:28:38.920
<v Speaker 1>to talk freely or tell us how you're figuring out

0:28:38.960 --> 0:28:41.840
<v Speaker 1>what's going on? It's interesting. They definitely need a little

0:28:41.880 --> 0:28:44.680
<v Speaker 1>convincing and some just straight up don't really want to

0:28:44.720 --> 0:28:49.680
<v Speaker 1>talk about it. Um, but they are all saying that, okay,

0:28:50.000 --> 0:28:53.240
<v Speaker 1>maybe we we need to. We are showing interest while

0:28:53.360 --> 0:28:57.720
<v Speaker 1>keeping in mind that there's regulation and there's definitely risks

0:28:57.840 --> 0:29:00.480
<v Speaker 1>and caution that we need to have. So so yeah,

0:29:00.560 --> 0:29:04.680
<v Speaker 1>banks are still quite reserved about it. But um, they

0:29:05.080 --> 0:29:10.480
<v Speaker 1>can't really, um be hesitant anymore because clients are looking

0:29:10.880 --> 0:29:13.400
<v Speaker 1>to to invest in crypto and asking and they can't

0:29:13.480 --> 0:29:15.960
<v Speaker 1>risk their clients going to the competitors. Well, and that's

0:29:15.960 --> 0:29:18.160
<v Speaker 1>the key part here is the clients. And it's something

0:29:18.240 --> 0:29:20.880
<v Speaker 1>that I'm reminded about when I think about which Jamie

0:29:20.960 --> 0:29:24.560
<v Speaker 1>Diamond of JP Morgan Chase has said repeatedly about his

0:29:24.640 --> 0:29:26.800
<v Speaker 1>thoughts on crypto, and it's something that you refer to

0:29:26.920 --> 0:29:29.400
<v Speaker 1>in the piece. You say, remind us that he called

0:29:29.440 --> 0:29:32.440
<v Speaker 1>it worthless in October after deeming it a fraud back in,

0:29:33.800 --> 0:29:36.240
<v Speaker 1>So is what's happening at JP Morgan and the other banks.

0:29:36.240 --> 0:29:37.960
<v Speaker 1>They're saying, wait a second, even though we might not

0:29:38.080 --> 0:29:40.000
<v Speaker 1>think it's something that personally we want to invest in

0:29:40.120 --> 0:29:42.240
<v Speaker 1>and we want to be a part of our clients

0:29:42.320 --> 0:29:44.200
<v Speaker 1>want it, so we need to have a presence there

0:29:44.400 --> 0:29:47.160
<v Speaker 1>right Yeah, exactly. And we're seeing from from the LinkedIn

0:29:47.240 --> 0:29:50.160
<v Speaker 1>data um that JP Morgan is actually among the top

0:29:50.240 --> 0:29:54.240
<v Speaker 1>banks that have hired cryptal talents, and right now on

0:29:54.480 --> 0:29:57.960
<v Speaker 1>the linkeding job posting site, they also have a lot

0:29:58.080 --> 0:30:00.640
<v Speaker 1>of postings for cryptal talents. But you guys call the

0:30:00.720 --> 0:30:02.600
<v Speaker 1>firms or when you call them in the reporting and

0:30:02.640 --> 0:30:04.760
<v Speaker 1>you say JP Morgan or City Group of Morgan's day

0:30:04.800 --> 0:30:07.000
<v Speaker 1>and they tell us what you're doing. Are they freely

0:30:07.240 --> 0:30:11.640
<v Speaker 1>telling you what they're doing. No, they're pretty quiet about it.

0:30:11.800 --> 0:30:15.680
<v Speaker 1>It is fascinating because you do wonder I think, you know,

0:30:15.760 --> 0:30:17.800
<v Speaker 1>I think about the summit that we're getting ready to do, Tim.

0:30:17.840 --> 0:30:21.280
<v Speaker 1>I mean, everybody within the established financial world are trying

0:30:21.400 --> 0:30:23.440
<v Speaker 1>to I'm going to talk to the H and R

0:30:23.520 --> 0:30:27.520
<v Speaker 1>Block CEO, you know there in terms of tax filings

0:30:27.520 --> 0:30:30.640
<v Speaker 1>for individuals, for small businesses, everybody's keeping an eye on

0:30:30.720 --> 0:30:33.360
<v Speaker 1>what's happening in the crypto space, and you can definitely

0:30:33.400 --> 0:30:36.440
<v Speaker 1>see that at this point, Eleanor, I mean, everybody's kind

0:30:36.480 --> 0:30:38.440
<v Speaker 1>of going after I guess what you could say is

0:30:38.480 --> 0:30:42.360
<v Speaker 1>a smaller pool of individuals right now exactly. Um. Actually,

0:30:42.400 --> 0:30:45.120
<v Speaker 1>I have sources telling me that banks right now are

0:30:45.200 --> 0:30:50.480
<v Speaker 1>looking specifically for people who left banks in eighteen and

0:30:50.600 --> 0:30:53.400
<v Speaker 1>joined the crypto equal system, and they're trying to attract

0:30:53.440 --> 0:30:56.840
<v Speaker 1>them back because those people who have an understanding of

0:30:57.160 --> 0:30:59.920
<v Speaker 1>systematic trading in crypto. Okay, So I pose a question

0:31:00.040 --> 0:31:01.920
<v Speaker 1>to you that Carol posted me that I couldn't answer

0:31:02.080 --> 0:31:04.360
<v Speaker 1>just a few minutes ago, and it's about the connection

0:31:04.480 --> 0:31:06.400
<v Speaker 1>and the parallels between the dot com boom in the

0:31:06.480 --> 0:31:09.240
<v Speaker 1>late nineties early two thousands and the underlying technology. How

0:31:09.280 --> 0:31:11.719
<v Speaker 1>would you answer the question of what your sources are

0:31:11.760 --> 0:31:13.800
<v Speaker 1>saying is the technology that's here to stay if some

0:31:13.880 --> 0:31:16.240
<v Speaker 1>of these cryptos do end up going to zero, Well,

0:31:16.440 --> 0:31:20.160
<v Speaker 1>they are saying, honestly, my sources don't see the bear

0:31:20.320 --> 0:31:24.000
<v Speaker 1>market coming anytime soon, and they are calling this crypto

0:31:24.320 --> 0:31:27.959
<v Speaker 1>as the early days of capital markets two point oh um.

0:31:28.200 --> 0:31:32.800
<v Speaker 1>And they're um in comparing their crypto startups to like

0:31:33.080 --> 0:31:36.360
<v Speaker 1>early days of Facebook, Apple, and saying that over time,

0:31:36.520 --> 0:31:40.640
<v Speaker 1>Wall streets ability to offer competitive compensation will diminish because

0:31:40.920 --> 0:31:45.120
<v Speaker 1>these firms, these cryptal startups, are able to offer ownership stakes,

0:31:45.520 --> 0:31:49.200
<v Speaker 1>digital tokens, and later on probably really high salaries. It's

0:31:49.240 --> 0:31:50.840
<v Speaker 1>hard not to feel that something's going to change, but

0:31:50.880 --> 0:31:52.880
<v Speaker 1>it's just not quite sure how it all takes out. Um,

0:31:53.000 --> 0:31:54.400
<v Speaker 1>but we know how it's taken out when it comes

0:31:54.440 --> 0:31:56.280
<v Speaker 1>to if you've worked in the crypto industry. While Street

0:31:56.320 --> 0:31:59.400
<v Speaker 1>apparently wants you, that's Eleanor's song. She's finance an investing

0:31:59.440 --> 0:32:04.760
<v Speaker 1>reporter Bloomberg News. Yeah, I bet you let me drive.

0:32:05.040 --> 0:32:08.920
<v Speaker 1>Oh no, no, no, no, this is not a home

0:32:09.480 --> 0:32:17.760
<v Speaker 1>a right, please, I want to drive the question drive.

0:32:20.600 --> 0:32:26.960
<v Speaker 1>This is the drive to the globe down on Bloomberg Radio.

0:32:27.080 --> 0:32:29.360
<v Speaker 1>All right, just about tim nts left in today's trading session.

0:32:29.400 --> 0:32:31.480
<v Speaker 1>So let's get to it. Let's drive to the clothes

0:32:31.560 --> 0:32:34.200
<v Speaker 1>with Hank Smith back with us, head of investment strategy

0:32:34.240 --> 0:32:37.200
<v Speaker 1>over at however, Trust once again on the phone from

0:32:37.200 --> 0:32:40.480
<v Speaker 1>Bradner Pennsylvania. So Hank, good to have you here. Feels

0:32:40.520 --> 0:32:43.280
<v Speaker 1>like we've gotten through a lot over the last month

0:32:43.360 --> 0:32:46.400
<v Speaker 1>in terms of earnings. We're seeing out performance once again

0:32:46.880 --> 0:32:49.280
<v Speaker 1>when it comes to earnings beats and we're seeing the

0:32:49.400 --> 0:32:52.760
<v Speaker 1>markets up a lot as a result. We're up six

0:32:52.840 --> 0:32:55.360
<v Speaker 1>percent gain in the benchmark since the earning season began,

0:32:55.480 --> 0:32:59.720
<v Speaker 1>best performance of our comparable period in seven years. Just

0:33:00.000 --> 0:33:03.360
<v Speaker 1>I fight in your view and will it continue? Yeah,

0:33:03.760 --> 0:33:06.440
<v Speaker 1>good afternoon, Kyle. Great to be with you. Yes, it

0:33:06.760 --> 0:33:10.480
<v Speaker 1>is justified. Far cry from where we were in early

0:33:10.600 --> 0:33:14.280
<v Speaker 1>September when the markets were concerned about third quarter earnings

0:33:14.360 --> 0:33:18.520
<v Speaker 1>based on the slowdown economic slowdown and concerned about the

0:33:18.640 --> 0:33:22.440
<v Speaker 1>debt ceiling and Washington d C uncertainty. And of course

0:33:22.520 --> 0:33:25.960
<v Speaker 1>Corporate America has come through beautifully in the third quarter

0:33:26.160 --> 0:33:32.000
<v Speaker 1>with of those companies reporting beating on the bottom line

0:33:32.000 --> 0:33:36.360
<v Speaker 1>and beating on the top line. And so I think

0:33:36.440 --> 0:33:39.120
<v Speaker 1>what I think, Actually, Tim's going to correct you because

0:33:39.120 --> 0:33:42.400
<v Speaker 1>I think it's what is to be specific according to

0:33:42.560 --> 0:33:48.280
<v Speaker 1>data from research you read our mind, Hank, I appreciate

0:33:48.360 --> 0:33:52.720
<v Speaker 1>the detail. Sorry, continue, go ahead, you know, I think

0:33:52.840 --> 0:33:56.840
<v Speaker 1>I think what is proven to be is this continues

0:33:56.920 --> 0:33:59.680
<v Speaker 1>to be a buy on the dips market, as has

0:33:59.760 --> 0:34:03.240
<v Speaker 1>been all year and in fact since the start of

0:34:03.280 --> 0:34:07.440
<v Speaker 1>the new bull market March two thousand and twenty as well.

0:34:07.600 --> 0:34:10.920
<v Speaker 1>Despite the rise in yields. With a tenure treasury at

0:34:10.960 --> 0:34:14.680
<v Speaker 1>one point five seven, it is still not competition for

0:34:14.760 --> 0:34:17.880
<v Speaker 1>the stock market. So we're still in a tina environment.

0:34:17.960 --> 0:34:21.239
<v Speaker 1>There is no alternative, and when you come right down

0:34:21.360 --> 0:34:27.960
<v Speaker 1>to buying the tina, they all apply. If you're in

0:34:28.000 --> 0:34:30.440
<v Speaker 1>the doors, then we know we're I don't know we're

0:34:30.480 --> 0:34:32.680
<v Speaker 1>moving on. No, Hank, when does the party and no,

0:34:32.800 --> 0:34:36.680
<v Speaker 1>when does the music stop? Well, let's just frame it

0:34:36.800 --> 0:34:40.400
<v Speaker 1>this way. The tail winds continue to be stronger than

0:34:40.440 --> 0:34:43.920
<v Speaker 1>the headwinds, and when that changes, I think we're we're

0:34:43.920 --> 0:34:46.560
<v Speaker 1>going to have a correction. The tail winds very simply

0:34:47.000 --> 0:34:52.239
<v Speaker 1>incredible monetary stimulus, incredible fiscal stimulus, incredible corporate earnings, and

0:34:52.360 --> 0:34:55.800
<v Speaker 1>a consumer that is in excellent shape and is willing

0:34:55.880 --> 0:35:00.120
<v Speaker 1>to spend. We still haven't really seen all the the

0:35:00.320 --> 0:35:03.960
<v Speaker 1>unleashing of pent up demand, because that delta variant did

0:35:04.080 --> 0:35:08.040
<v Speaker 1>pour some cold water over what was really an extraordinary

0:35:08.200 --> 0:35:13.279
<v Speaker 1>unleashing of pent up demand. The headwinds simply remains number

0:35:13.320 --> 0:35:18.000
<v Speaker 1>one covid um. If covid re emerges, uh, we're going

0:35:18.080 --> 0:35:22.000
<v Speaker 1>to slow down Washington d C uncertainty. We still have

0:35:22.080 --> 0:35:24.480
<v Speaker 1>a debt ceiling to pass and We still don't know

0:35:24.600 --> 0:35:28.440
<v Speaker 1>what the reconciliation bill is going to be um of

0:35:28.600 --> 0:35:31.360
<v Speaker 1>the final version of it, but we do know that

0:35:31.840 --> 0:35:34.640
<v Speaker 1>the taxes aren't going to be nearly as ownerous as

0:35:35.120 --> 0:35:39.040
<v Speaker 1>as what was feared two quarters ago. China slowing growth

0:35:39.440 --> 0:35:44.239
<v Speaker 1>is a issue as well, and of course inflation, and

0:35:44.400 --> 0:35:46.960
<v Speaker 1>that the debate that we've had now for the past

0:35:46.960 --> 0:35:51.279
<v Speaker 1>several quarters. Is this transitory inflation or is this persistent

0:35:51.719 --> 0:35:55.160
<v Speaker 1>insidious inflation? So if you're a betting man and you've

0:35:55.160 --> 0:35:58.040
<v Speaker 1>got to make investment calls for clients, would you do so?

0:35:59.160 --> 0:36:01.640
<v Speaker 1>What would you say? Can we Is it too early

0:36:01.719 --> 0:36:05.080
<v Speaker 1>to say here's what we think holds for everyone? It's

0:36:05.120 --> 0:36:08.120
<v Speaker 1>funny I was at an event and someone said to me,

0:36:08.480 --> 0:36:10.160
<v Speaker 1>because they know what I do, and like so many things,

0:36:10.160 --> 0:36:13.000
<v Speaker 1>is gonna happen with interest rights? What do you think?

0:36:13.719 --> 0:36:15.520
<v Speaker 1>And I said, even if they go up a little bit,

0:36:15.600 --> 0:36:20.080
<v Speaker 1>there's still low by a historical measure, And so I

0:36:20.160 --> 0:36:22.040
<v Speaker 1>don't think the Fed's going to do anything drastic. But

0:36:22.160 --> 0:36:24.000
<v Speaker 1>you're you're the guy who's got really got to, you know,

0:36:24.080 --> 0:36:28.160
<v Speaker 1>make decisions for you know, millions of dollars of investment money.

0:36:28.280 --> 0:36:32.399
<v Speaker 1>So what's your bed? Carol? You're you made a good

0:36:32.440 --> 0:36:36.000
<v Speaker 1>point there. The FED, whatever it's gonna do, is going

0:36:36.040 --> 0:36:38.840
<v Speaker 1>to be wealth telegraphed, and it's going to be gradual.

0:36:39.640 --> 0:36:43.560
<v Speaker 1>And I mentioned unleashing of pent up demand. We still

0:36:43.680 --> 0:36:46.759
<v Speaker 1>believe there's plenty of that to go, and we think

0:36:46.840 --> 0:36:50.879
<v Speaker 1>that is going to drive the economy uh through two

0:36:50.960 --> 0:36:55.640
<v Speaker 1>thousand twenty two incliporate earnings are going to remain robust

0:36:55.840 --> 0:36:59.000
<v Speaker 1>in that in that environment. So the Delva variant just

0:36:59.160 --> 0:37:03.080
<v Speaker 1>throw a temper very wet rag over over this unleashing

0:37:03.160 --> 0:37:07.080
<v Speaker 1>of pent up demand. It will it will resume. And

0:37:07.960 --> 0:37:09.680
<v Speaker 1>but the worry is if we do get let's say,

0:37:10.400 --> 0:37:13.560
<v Speaker 1>if anything, the Delta variant. It was troublesome, but we

0:37:13.719 --> 0:37:16.040
<v Speaker 1>managed our way through it right for the most part.

0:37:16.160 --> 0:37:18.120
<v Speaker 1>There's certainly a hotspots, and I would never say that

0:37:18.160 --> 0:37:20.759
<v Speaker 1>we've gotten through completely. But if we get something that

0:37:20.960 --> 0:37:24.359
<v Speaker 1>isn't so easily manageable, or the current vaccine doesn't isn't

0:37:24.360 --> 0:37:26.440
<v Speaker 1>able to deal with it, that's going to be a

0:37:26.480 --> 0:37:31.840
<v Speaker 1>problem potentially. But look, COVID reared its ugly head last

0:37:31.920 --> 0:37:35.480
<v Speaker 1>winter and we got through that as as well. So

0:37:36.080 --> 0:37:40.200
<v Speaker 1>I'm very optimistic that politicians are not going to repeat

0:37:40.239 --> 0:37:42.640
<v Speaker 1>the same mistakes they did early in two thousand and

0:37:42.760 --> 0:37:47.120
<v Speaker 1>twenty when they locked down the economy that I think

0:37:47.160 --> 0:37:49.960
<v Speaker 1>one of the lessons is that was not the right approach,

0:37:50.640 --> 0:37:55.160
<v Speaker 1>just choking off the economy entirely. So uh, maybe that's

0:37:55.200 --> 0:37:59.920
<v Speaker 1>misplaced optimism with regards to politicians making the right decision,

0:38:00.360 --> 0:38:05.279
<v Speaker 1>but I think I think in this case they they will. Um,

0:38:05.600 --> 0:38:10.719
<v Speaker 1>so we're rather optimistic. Yes, they're gonna be bumps in

0:38:10.760 --> 0:38:13.640
<v Speaker 1>the road. The SMP has not had a correction since

0:38:13.719 --> 0:38:16.920
<v Speaker 1>the start of this UH bull market over a year

0:38:16.960 --> 0:38:20.040
<v Speaker 1>and a half ago. That's highly unusual. Then azdec did

0:38:20.680 --> 0:38:24.480
<v Speaker 1>a year ago back in September October, but the SMP

0:38:24.719 --> 0:38:29.920
<v Speaker 1>is not an investors should uh always expect corrections. But

0:38:30.440 --> 0:38:33.279
<v Speaker 1>we believe that's going to be a buying event as

0:38:33.360 --> 0:38:40.200
<v Speaker 1>opposed to something that morphs into a bear market, which

0:38:40.280 --> 0:38:43.840
<v Speaker 1>we think is very unlikely because the risk of a

0:38:44.000 --> 0:38:48.200
<v Speaker 1>recession occurring over the next twelve eighteen months is very

0:38:48.280 --> 0:38:50.640
<v Speaker 1>very well. So where we started buying the dip and Tina,

0:38:51.120 --> 0:38:54.800
<v Speaker 1>al right, it comes back to that exactly. Hey, just

0:38:54.880 --> 0:38:56.759
<v Speaker 1>in the last thirty seconds that we have with you

0:38:56.880 --> 0:38:59.640
<v Speaker 1>hand changing on farm payrolls, we're getting that data on

0:38:59.719 --> 0:39:02.719
<v Speaker 1>Frida A four and fifty thousand is what Bloomberg economists

0:39:02.760 --> 0:39:05.400
<v Speaker 1>are expecting, or surveyed by Bloomberg, I should say, Um,

0:39:05.840 --> 0:39:11.960
<v Speaker 1>how could things go haywire? Well, well, certainly the last

0:39:12.040 --> 0:39:15.160
<v Speaker 1>month's report was way way off the mark. And and

0:39:15.480 --> 0:39:19.320
<v Speaker 1>here's the unknown here. Uh, look, we do have a

0:39:19.480 --> 0:39:25.759
<v Speaker 1>labor disruptions, uh for for sure. And how much of

0:39:25.880 --> 0:39:30.920
<v Speaker 1>it is uh people taking earlier retirement that will not

0:39:31.120 --> 0:39:34.040
<v Speaker 1>come back into the workforce, and that is something that's

0:39:34.120 --> 0:39:37.080
<v Speaker 1>very very hard to quantify. I think once we get

0:39:37.120 --> 0:39:41.160
<v Speaker 1>through the fears of of the pandemic, that we have

0:39:41.320 --> 0:39:45.640
<v Speaker 1>schools and daycare fully reopened, uh and and some of

0:39:45.719 --> 0:39:49.440
<v Speaker 1>the government policies kind of step away and the private

0:39:49.480 --> 0:39:52.240
<v Speaker 1>sector takes over, you know, I think the labor markets

0:39:52.280 --> 0:39:57.320
<v Speaker 1>are gonna recover even uh very very well. Thanks smith Over, however, Trust,

0:39:57.400 --> 0:40:00.600
<v Speaker 1>thank you so much for your thoughts. Appreciate it. Thanks

0:40:00.640 --> 0:40:04.480
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0:40:04.600 --> 0:40:06.759
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0:40:09.120 --> 0:40:11.920
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