1 00:00:01,800 --> 00:00:04,440 Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser and I'm 2 00:00:04,480 --> 00:00:07,280 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stanovk. We're here every day bringing 3 00:00:07,320 --> 00:00:09,840 Speaker 1: you the latest news from the world to business and finance, 4 00:00:09,840 --> 00:00:13,680 Speaker 1: plus technology, politics, economics, all purtnising the power of Business 5 00:00:13,680 --> 00:00:17,119 Speaker 1: Week reporters and editors, not to mention our journalists and 6 00:00:17,120 --> 00:00:20,000 Speaker 1: analysts in more than one twenty countries. You can download 7 00:00:20,000 --> 00:00:23,239 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Business Week and iTunes, SoundCloud, or Bloomberg dot Com. 8 00:00:23,440 --> 00:00:25,200 Speaker 1: You can also listen to our radio show at two 9 00:00:25,200 --> 00:00:27,880 Speaker 1: pm Eastern Time on Bloomberg Radio or watch us on 10 00:00:27,920 --> 00:00:31,640 Speaker 1: YouTube search Bloomberg Global News. A few headlines we just 11 00:00:31,720 --> 00:00:34,400 Speaker 1: want to mention, uh in terms of COVID number of 12 00:00:34,400 --> 00:00:38,200 Speaker 1: recorded COVID nineteen fatalities surpassing five million. As the world 13 00:00:38,240 --> 00:00:41,440 Speaker 1: continue to roll out the biggest vaccination program in history, 14 00:00:41,520 --> 00:00:44,360 Speaker 1: some seven billion shots have been administered across the globe 15 00:00:44,400 --> 00:00:46,120 Speaker 1: and effort that has really helped to slow the pace 16 00:00:46,159 --> 00:00:48,159 Speaker 1: of deaths. And here in the US we're set to 17 00:00:48,159 --> 00:00:52,120 Speaker 1: surpass a new milestone in vaccination efforts. Today of adults 18 00:00:52,400 --> 00:00:54,880 Speaker 1: will have received at least one dose of the vaccine. 19 00:00:55,280 --> 00:00:57,200 Speaker 1: So that's some good news. Yeah, that that feels like 20 00:00:57,200 --> 00:00:59,600 Speaker 1: a pretty significant number. We saw Maderna, though under a 21 00:00:59,640 --> 00:01:02,400 Speaker 1: lot of rusher, down almost close to seven percent at 22 00:01:02,440 --> 00:01:04,920 Speaker 1: it's lows here after the Covin nineteen shot, though failed 23 00:01:04,920 --> 00:01:08,440 Speaker 1: to win US regulatory authorization for teenagers, the US FDA 24 00:01:08,600 --> 00:01:10,720 Speaker 1: saying it needs more time to consider the biotech company 25 00:01:10,800 --> 00:01:13,520 Speaker 1: shots in this age group, as the agency moles the 26 00:01:13,640 --> 00:01:16,760 Speaker 1: risk of a rare heart inflammation. All right, let's get 27 00:01:16,800 --> 00:01:18,680 Speaker 1: to it. A go to voice for us on the 28 00:01:18,720 --> 00:01:22,040 Speaker 1: pandemic over the past eighteen nineteen months and counting. Dr 29 00:01:22,120 --> 00:01:25,000 Speaker 1: Sandra Galia, he's doing a professor at Boston University School 30 00:01:25,040 --> 00:01:26,920 Speaker 1: of Public Health. He's got a new book at the 31 00:01:27,000 --> 00:01:30,640 Speaker 1: Contagion Next Time, because folks, there's gonna be a next time. 32 00:01:30,959 --> 00:01:32,880 Speaker 1: He joins us again on the phone from Boston. The 33 00:01:32,880 --> 00:01:34,600 Speaker 1: book is called The Contagion Next Time. The other stuff 34 00:01:34,600 --> 00:01:37,520 Speaker 1: I just added in Dr Galia. Great to have you 35 00:01:37,640 --> 00:01:40,600 Speaker 1: here with Tim and myself. How are you? Um? Well, 36 00:01:40,640 --> 00:01:42,160 Speaker 1: thank your girl, Thank you and you and Tim for 37 00:01:42,200 --> 00:01:43,920 Speaker 1: having me on again. Well, it's good to have you here. 38 00:01:43,959 --> 00:01:47,480 Speaker 1: You always help make sense of the deluge of headlines 39 00:01:47,560 --> 00:01:49,280 Speaker 1: that come out when it comes to the pandemic and 40 00:01:49,360 --> 00:01:53,040 Speaker 1: the vaccine um. In terms of kids getting the vaccine, 41 00:01:53,640 --> 00:01:55,800 Speaker 1: are you hopeful? Does it feel like we're moving forward, 42 00:01:55,880 --> 00:01:59,440 Speaker 1: that that's going to be a significant accomplishment maybe the 43 00:01:59,480 --> 00:02:02,360 Speaker 1: next few months. Yeah, I am hopeful. I think it's 44 00:02:02,360 --> 00:02:05,240 Speaker 1: a step in the right direction. And as we've discussed before, 45 00:02:05,240 --> 00:02:08,040 Speaker 1: and as we know, kids have been at low risk 46 00:02:08,120 --> 00:02:11,000 Speaker 1: of getting COVID and low risk of being sick from COVID. 47 00:02:11,080 --> 00:02:14,519 Speaker 1: Having said that, they represent a group that potentially could 48 00:02:14,520 --> 00:02:16,480 Speaker 1: have a symptomatic COVID and pass it on to others. 49 00:02:16,520 --> 00:02:19,600 Speaker 1: So having kids vaccinated first of all protect tickets themselves, 50 00:02:19,680 --> 00:02:22,799 Speaker 1: of course, but I think also reduces the number of 51 00:02:22,840 --> 00:02:25,440 Speaker 1: people in the population who are susceptible to COVID and 52 00:02:25,520 --> 00:02:28,960 Speaker 1: reducing transmission fundamentally. Where we want to get to right 53 00:02:29,000 --> 00:02:31,000 Speaker 1: now when you were mentioning in the intro but of 54 00:02:31,040 --> 00:02:34,359 Speaker 1: adults having at least one shot, is having few and 55 00:02:34,480 --> 00:02:36,720 Speaker 1: fewer and fewer people who are susceptible to the virus 56 00:02:36,960 --> 00:02:40,320 Speaker 1: so that the virus stops transmitting. Given that we've seen 57 00:02:40,400 --> 00:02:44,320 Speaker 1: hesitancy among US adults for many months about getting a vaccine, 58 00:02:44,360 --> 00:02:46,440 Speaker 1: do you think that parents will be hesitant to give 59 00:02:46,520 --> 00:02:49,280 Speaker 1: this vaccine to kids if, like you said, kids have 60 00:02:49,400 --> 00:02:53,640 Speaker 1: shown that they are not as affected by COVID. Well, 61 00:02:53,680 --> 00:02:55,040 Speaker 1: I suppose there are two ways of looking at that. 62 00:02:55,200 --> 00:02:58,239 Speaker 1: I think undoubtedly we're going to see some hesitancy, but 63 00:02:58,440 --> 00:03:01,480 Speaker 1: we also are much more are accustomed to having kids 64 00:03:01,560 --> 00:03:05,880 Speaker 1: be vaccinated. Obviously, there are many mandatory pediatric vaccines that 65 00:03:06,040 --> 00:03:08,920 Speaker 1: kids have to show proof of before going to school, 66 00:03:09,000 --> 00:03:11,880 Speaker 1: so I'm hoping that that will offset some of the incitancy. 67 00:03:12,400 --> 00:03:15,200 Speaker 1: I'm worried that the vaccine for kids comes at a 68 00:03:15,280 --> 00:03:18,760 Speaker 1: time when we've been talking seemingly endlessly about vaccine hesitancy, 69 00:03:18,800 --> 00:03:22,440 Speaker 1: which undoubted little color some of the reaction to vaccinating kids. 70 00:03:22,520 --> 00:03:25,359 Speaker 1: But I think all parents and parents listening need to 71 00:03:25,440 --> 00:03:29,359 Speaker 1: know that the FDA takes safety enormously, sues for the 72 00:03:29,400 --> 00:03:31,600 Speaker 1: first thing they look at, and these vaccines are safe 73 00:03:31,639 --> 00:03:33,960 Speaker 1: and effective for kids. Hey, Dr Gilia, what about when 74 00:03:33,960 --> 00:03:35,640 Speaker 1: it comes to mixing and matching? And people who listen 75 00:03:35,680 --> 00:03:37,640 Speaker 1: regularly know that this is a conversation, Caroline, I have 76 00:03:37,720 --> 00:03:40,560 Speaker 1: had a lot both on air and constantly. We're still 77 00:03:40,600 --> 00:03:44,480 Speaker 1: trying to make sense of it. Vaccines. What do we 78 00:03:44,520 --> 00:03:46,800 Speaker 1: need to know about potentially getting a moderna booster and 79 00:03:47,000 --> 00:03:51,160 Speaker 1: you know, vice versa. Yeah, the data are not not 80 00:03:51,280 --> 00:03:52,800 Speaker 1: as sharp as one would like them to be. But 81 00:03:53,000 --> 00:03:55,240 Speaker 1: more or less, we know that mixing and matching is 82 00:03:55,280 --> 00:03:57,840 Speaker 1: actually fine. There's some question as to what are not 83 00:03:58,120 --> 00:04:00,560 Speaker 1: actually Mixing and magic might be better than getting the 84 00:04:00,600 --> 00:04:03,040 Speaker 1: same kind of vaccine, but I'm not entirely sure that 85 00:04:03,200 --> 00:04:05,880 Speaker 1: that's that's certainly right, I got modern at the first time, 86 00:04:05,880 --> 00:04:07,920 Speaker 1: and I got a booster of mittern as well. Um. 87 00:04:08,280 --> 00:04:11,320 Speaker 1: But I think fundamentally what matters is anybody who's all 88 00:04:11,400 --> 00:04:13,400 Speaker 1: rule for a booster should get a booster. And it 89 00:04:13,440 --> 00:04:15,680 Speaker 1: doesn't really matter which one of these vaccines one gets. 90 00:04:15,720 --> 00:04:18,640 Speaker 1: We we've actually been quite lucky, as we've discussed previously 91 00:04:18,720 --> 00:04:21,840 Speaker 1: on your show, that these vaccines are actually excellent. They 92 00:04:21,920 --> 00:04:25,680 Speaker 1: really are highly applicationous vaccines with excellent safety profiles, and 93 00:04:25,920 --> 00:04:28,960 Speaker 1: that that's actually a remarkable achievement, right, It certainly has. 94 00:04:29,320 --> 00:04:30,920 Speaker 1: It does feel like it's helped us in our fight 95 00:04:30,960 --> 00:04:34,440 Speaker 1: against this pandemic um, because we need to be ready 96 00:04:34,600 --> 00:04:37,480 Speaker 1: for the next time. And you write about this the 97 00:04:37,560 --> 00:04:41,280 Speaker 1: contagion next time, I mean it's going to happen. Correct. 98 00:04:41,440 --> 00:04:43,120 Speaker 1: This may have been a first for many of us 99 00:04:43,160 --> 00:04:45,920 Speaker 1: in terms of a generation of understanding what a pandemic 100 00:04:46,040 --> 00:04:49,120 Speaker 1: is like, but there will be more. There will be 101 00:04:49,320 --> 00:04:52,599 Speaker 1: And we've had many closenesses. I mean, stars one which 102 00:04:52,680 --> 00:04:56,080 Speaker 1: was about ten years ago, was was an extraordinarily close miss, 103 00:04:56,160 --> 00:04:58,240 Speaker 1: and that that was a virus which was perhaps less 104 00:04:58,240 --> 00:05:01,480 Speaker 1: transmissible but potentially more lethal then Source copey Do, which 105 00:05:01,520 --> 00:05:06,200 Speaker 1: is the virus behind the COVID nineteen. So the odds 106 00:05:06,240 --> 00:05:07,960 Speaker 1: are it will happen, and it's not a matter of if, 107 00:05:08,160 --> 00:05:10,200 Speaker 1: but a matter of when. So it seems to me 108 00:05:10,360 --> 00:05:12,040 Speaker 1: like now is the time for us to start thinking 109 00:05:12,040 --> 00:05:14,400 Speaker 1: about what do we need to do to mitigate the 110 00:05:14,560 --> 00:05:19,400 Speaker 1: next pandemic? What do we need to do well in 111 00:05:19,520 --> 00:05:22,280 Speaker 1: the same breath as I mentioned and that vaccines have 112 00:05:22,400 --> 00:05:25,120 Speaker 1: been excellent, They've been efficacious and safe, and I think 113 00:05:25,160 --> 00:05:27,160 Speaker 1: we definitely need to do work on making sure we 114 00:05:27,200 --> 00:05:29,960 Speaker 1: have rapid availability of vaccines and detection of pathogens and 115 00:05:30,040 --> 00:05:32,640 Speaker 1: all that. I argue in the book that that's not enough. 116 00:05:32,720 --> 00:05:35,600 Speaker 1: And the reason I argued that is because the consequences 117 00:05:35,680 --> 00:05:40,000 Speaker 1: of COVID were fundamentally social consequences, economic consequences that reflect 118 00:05:40,400 --> 00:05:43,200 Speaker 1: things that we were doing poorly before COVID hit, and 119 00:05:43,279 --> 00:05:45,280 Speaker 1: I argue that we should tend to those things just 120 00:05:45,360 --> 00:05:48,920 Speaker 1: to give one concrete example, we as a country are 121 00:05:49,120 --> 00:05:52,280 Speaker 1: live sicker, shorter lives than do all other high income countries, 122 00:05:52,320 --> 00:05:55,200 Speaker 1: meaning we have higher prevalence of things like diabetes, hyppertension, 123 00:05:55,720 --> 00:05:58,440 Speaker 1: and those are actually the conditions that made us vulnerable 124 00:05:58,480 --> 00:06:02,560 Speaker 1: to COVID, because COVID has a higher severity among people 125 00:06:02,640 --> 00:06:05,000 Speaker 1: with underlying conditions, and that those are the people have 126 00:06:05,040 --> 00:06:07,240 Speaker 1: been a greater risk of dying. So we should be 127 00:06:07,360 --> 00:06:10,400 Speaker 1: looking at what is it that causes those diseases? Why 128 00:06:10,440 --> 00:06:12,800 Speaker 1: are we at higher prevalence than other high income countries 129 00:06:13,080 --> 00:06:15,839 Speaker 1: and dealing with them now, not when we have another pandemic? 130 00:06:16,279 --> 00:06:19,599 Speaker 1: Dr Galia, are you optimistic here? Help help? As Carol mentioned, 131 00:06:19,960 --> 00:06:21,280 Speaker 1: you don't seem to have woken up on the wrong 132 00:06:21,320 --> 00:06:23,360 Speaker 1: side of the bed. I'm just being cynical today, but 133 00:06:24,720 --> 00:06:27,799 Speaker 1: I just bring it out there. I just don't see 134 00:06:27,960 --> 00:06:32,200 Speaker 1: I I don't see I don't see evidence yet of 135 00:06:32,279 --> 00:06:37,080 Speaker 1: a shift in American public health following this pandemic. I 136 00:06:37,200 --> 00:06:40,520 Speaker 1: am going to be optimistic because I prefer alternative Okay. 137 00:06:40,640 --> 00:06:44,279 Speaker 1: I actually think that that it is a good time 138 00:06:44,360 --> 00:06:47,000 Speaker 1: to have hope, that that we are paying attention to 139 00:06:47,120 --> 00:06:50,359 Speaker 1: issues that we should have been paying attention to years 140 00:06:50,440 --> 00:06:52,920 Speaker 1: and decades ago. Now will we or will we not? Well? 141 00:06:52,960 --> 00:06:56,120 Speaker 1: I think it behooves us to have the conversations that 142 00:06:56,200 --> 00:06:58,960 Speaker 1: pushes us forward. Colleague recently said we are at the 143 00:06:59,000 --> 00:07:01,239 Speaker 1: moment of a renaissance of these ideas, and I actually 144 00:07:01,279 --> 00:07:03,479 Speaker 1: think that captures it beautifully. I think we are at 145 00:07:03,480 --> 00:07:06,279 Speaker 1: the moment where we are realizing that unless we tend 146 00:07:06,360 --> 00:07:10,000 Speaker 1: to some fundamentals in our world, the next pandemic will 147 00:07:10,080 --> 00:07:12,000 Speaker 1: hit and we'll hit us just as hard, it's not harder. 148 00:07:12,480 --> 00:07:14,760 Speaker 1: So the moment is now. If we don't tender these 149 00:07:14,800 --> 00:07:17,400 Speaker 1: things now, I'm not sure when we will, And frankly, 150 00:07:17,400 --> 00:07:19,760 Speaker 1: if another pandemic, kids will be sitting ducks and will 151 00:07:19,800 --> 00:07:24,520 Speaker 1: deserve the consequences that come with it. So let's talk 152 00:07:24,600 --> 00:07:27,840 Speaker 1: about health care, something you know so well, and you 153 00:07:27,960 --> 00:07:31,360 Speaker 1: guys there at Boston University, you know you are are 154 00:07:31,600 --> 00:07:35,040 Speaker 1: educating the next generation who will be figuring out wellness 155 00:07:35,160 --> 00:07:39,360 Speaker 1: health medical policies for years to come. How do we 156 00:07:40,080 --> 00:07:44,520 Speaker 1: change the system that is so entrenched on dealing with 157 00:07:44,640 --> 00:07:48,800 Speaker 1: you when you're sick versus really thinking about keeping you well. 158 00:07:50,760 --> 00:07:53,080 Speaker 1: I think you're captured it well. Fundamentally, we want to 159 00:07:53,320 --> 00:07:58,000 Speaker 1: orient our system to reward providers to keep people well 160 00:07:58,240 --> 00:08:00,240 Speaker 1: rather than to treat people when they're sick. Now, there 161 00:08:00,240 --> 00:08:01,520 Speaker 1: are many different ways of doing that, and we can 162 00:08:01,560 --> 00:08:04,800 Speaker 1: get into the mittigridy of health policy, but I think 163 00:08:04,800 --> 00:08:07,520 Speaker 1: there are efforts moving in that regard. I had the 164 00:08:07,800 --> 00:08:11,960 Speaker 1: privilege of conversation with the administrator of CMS Decenter for 165 00:08:12,040 --> 00:08:14,760 Speaker 1: Medicaid and Medicare Services a few weeks ago, and I 166 00:08:14,840 --> 00:08:18,520 Speaker 1: think she's committed to this idea to innovating programs in 167 00:08:18,920 --> 00:08:21,280 Speaker 1: in that direction. And you are seeing it in a 168 00:08:21,480 --> 00:08:24,400 Speaker 1: big health system. So organizations like Kaiser, for example, that 169 00:08:24,440 --> 00:08:28,600 Speaker 1: are launching programs to incentivize their doctors to keep people healthy. 170 00:08:29,640 --> 00:08:31,760 Speaker 1: None of us really like going to the doctor, right. 171 00:08:31,880 --> 00:08:33,640 Speaker 1: We actually want to be as healthy for as long 172 00:08:33,720 --> 00:08:36,559 Speaker 1: as possible. But we have been going through a system 173 00:08:36,640 --> 00:08:39,640 Speaker 1: where my incentive, which is just to stay healthy, is 174 00:08:39,679 --> 00:08:41,439 Speaker 1: not the same as my doctors incentive, which is to 175 00:08:41,520 --> 00:08:43,080 Speaker 1: have me sick so I can go see him as 176 00:08:43,160 --> 00:08:45,240 Speaker 1: much as I can so that he can build and 177 00:08:45,360 --> 00:08:47,320 Speaker 1: and that needs to change, and that needs to change 178 00:08:47,360 --> 00:08:50,480 Speaker 1: so that we together see that our shared value is 179 00:08:50,920 --> 00:08:54,280 Speaker 1: staying healthy and living healthy, long lives. You really said that, now, 180 00:08:55,120 --> 00:08:58,319 Speaker 1: Like that's interesting, right, I mean you actually went there 181 00:08:58,440 --> 00:09:01,679 Speaker 1: that I mean, for give me. But the medical community 182 00:09:01,720 --> 00:09:05,559 Speaker 1: benefits when we're sick, it does well. I mean, I 183 00:09:05,800 --> 00:09:07,480 Speaker 1: don't think this tradition give you no I know, but 184 00:09:07,679 --> 00:09:09,719 Speaker 1: people don't at least say it. And if if you 185 00:09:09,840 --> 00:09:13,360 Speaker 1: talk to people within the medical community, doctors don't say right. 186 00:09:13,880 --> 00:09:16,319 Speaker 1: Doctors don't say I'm a doctor and I'm saying it. 187 00:09:16,360 --> 00:09:18,880 Speaker 1: And I think that is a misalignment. And you know, 188 00:09:18,920 --> 00:09:21,920 Speaker 1: I think doctors go into medical school to do the 189 00:09:22,000 --> 00:09:24,040 Speaker 1: right thing. Doctors in the medical school to keep people healthy. 190 00:09:24,240 --> 00:09:26,760 Speaker 1: But then of course we stream people through the ways 191 00:09:26,800 --> 00:09:28,520 Speaker 1: in which we incentivize them and pay them. And then 192 00:09:28,600 --> 00:09:30,920 Speaker 1: doctors are rational actors and they operate with in the system. 193 00:09:31,080 --> 00:09:34,080 Speaker 1: So it requires system change. It requires us to accept 194 00:09:34,520 --> 00:09:37,520 Speaker 1: that collectively we want to stay healthy. That means we 195 00:09:37,600 --> 00:09:40,000 Speaker 1: want our healthcare system to keep us healthy, and we 196 00:09:40,120 --> 00:09:42,800 Speaker 1: want to invest in parks and clean air and drinkable 197 00:09:42,800 --> 00:09:45,280 Speaker 1: water and safe food, all of which also keep us healthy. 198 00:09:45,400 --> 00:09:47,320 Speaker 1: So if there's one lever you could pull that would 199 00:09:47,360 --> 00:09:50,240 Speaker 1: make a big significant change in making sure that we're 200 00:09:50,280 --> 00:09:52,320 Speaker 1: all focused on keeping people well. And just got about 201 00:09:52,360 --> 00:09:54,480 Speaker 1: forty seconds, what would that lever? What would be the 202 00:09:54,600 --> 00:09:58,240 Speaker 1: lever you would, Paul, I think as at one lever, 203 00:09:58,520 --> 00:10:00,839 Speaker 1: I would actually make sure that everybody in understand the 204 00:10:00,920 --> 00:10:04,679 Speaker 1: next presidential debate, the presidential candidates are are grilled with 205 00:10:04,840 --> 00:10:06,400 Speaker 1: questions about what are you going to do to keep 206 00:10:06,440 --> 00:10:08,520 Speaker 1: people healthy? Not just to make them better when they're sick, 207 00:10:08,679 --> 00:10:12,480 Speaker 1: because I think then we'll see true investment at federal, state, 208 00:10:12,600 --> 00:10:17,720 Speaker 1: local levels in the structures that make us healthy. Yeah. Yeah, 209 00:10:17,760 --> 00:10:19,920 Speaker 1: it's tough. And you know what's hard though, too is 210 00:10:20,040 --> 00:10:23,400 Speaker 1: for politicians. What matters for voters is how much money 211 00:10:23,440 --> 00:10:24,880 Speaker 1: do I have? What am I taking home? Do I 212 00:10:24,920 --> 00:10:26,840 Speaker 1: have a job, do I feel confident? What's the economy 213 00:10:26,960 --> 00:10:29,040 Speaker 1: and the economic outlook? How much money each month is 214 00:10:29,040 --> 00:10:33,800 Speaker 1: going to healthcare? Too? Um, Really thoughtful stuff. Dr Sandra Galia, 215 00:10:33,880 --> 00:10:36,320 Speaker 1: thank you so much. Dean Boston University, School of Public 216 00:10:36,400 --> 00:10:38,520 Speaker 1: Health on the phone from Boston. Check out his new book. 217 00:10:38,720 --> 00:10:43,760 Speaker 1: It is called The Contagion. Next time, this is Bloomberg 218 00:10:43,840 --> 00:10:47,440 Speaker 1: Business Week with Carol Masser and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim 219 00:10:47,559 --> 00:10:51,720 Speaker 1: Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. Well, eighteen billion dollars in emergency 220 00:10:51,840 --> 00:10:54,199 Speaker 1: loans to eight seven countries to get through the pandemic. 221 00:10:54,280 --> 00:10:56,959 Speaker 1: Got one and eighteen billions? Did I did I leave 222 00:10:56,960 --> 00:10:59,199 Speaker 1: off a number? Oh? I must have ye, hundred and 223 00:10:59,240 --> 00:11:03,240 Speaker 1: eighteen billions. Lot, it's a lot. And over understanding This 224 00:11:03,400 --> 00:11:06,600 Speaker 1: is the crux of this story. Over understanding or accounting 225 00:11:06,880 --> 00:11:09,839 Speaker 1: of where much of it went en eighteen That's kind 226 00:11:09,880 --> 00:11:11,640 Speaker 1: of what this story is about. I don't know where 227 00:11:11,679 --> 00:11:14,720 Speaker 1: it went. How much are we talking about? All right, 228 00:11:14,760 --> 00:11:17,839 Speaker 1: let's get to it. Jonius right now is the reporter 229 00:11:17,880 --> 00:11:21,280 Speaker 1: who wrote at Bloomberg News, senior investigations writer Sheridan Process. 230 00:11:21,320 --> 00:11:23,199 Speaker 1: She joins us on the phone in Washington, d c 231 00:11:24,080 --> 00:11:28,600 Speaker 1: Um Sharon, tell us about this story. What's going on? Alright, 232 00:11:28,640 --> 00:11:32,640 Speaker 1: good afternoons. Yeah, it's it's fascinating. You know, this is 233 00:11:32,720 --> 00:11:35,719 Speaker 1: public money, a hundred and eighteen billion dollars that the 234 00:11:35,800 --> 00:11:38,079 Speaker 1: I M MAP said, Look, we're going to rush this 235 00:11:38,200 --> 00:11:42,599 Speaker 1: out and try to help countries UH with the COVID pandemic, 236 00:11:42,880 --> 00:11:45,800 Speaker 1: and we will get the money out in a hurry. 237 00:11:46,360 --> 00:11:50,680 Speaker 1: But as the funds managing director said Christaline to George Eva, 238 00:11:50,800 --> 00:11:53,640 Speaker 1: she said, do whatever it takes to fight the pandemic, 239 00:11:53,720 --> 00:11:56,160 Speaker 1: but make sure you keep the receipts. And the reason 240 00:11:56,280 --> 00:11:58,679 Speaker 1: is because some of those countries have been required to 241 00:11:58,760 --> 00:12:01,920 Speaker 1: audit how they spent that money afterwards, and now it's 242 00:12:01,920 --> 00:12:04,400 Speaker 1: about eighteen months later, we're trying to figure out where 243 00:12:04,440 --> 00:12:07,760 Speaker 1: it all went. Who is requiring them to audit? Be 244 00:12:07,880 --> 00:12:11,719 Speaker 1: I Mass as a condition of dispersing more loans to 245 00:12:11,840 --> 00:12:13,839 Speaker 1: some of these countries, has said, look, we'll give you 246 00:12:13,960 --> 00:12:16,400 Speaker 1: more money if you can come up with an audit 247 00:12:16,520 --> 00:12:18,559 Speaker 1: of how you spent that last COVID money that we 248 00:12:18,679 --> 00:12:21,920 Speaker 1: gave you. And so it's quite interesting to see the 249 00:12:21,960 --> 00:12:24,560 Speaker 1: countries that have been required to do these audits. In fact, 250 00:12:24,679 --> 00:12:28,400 Speaker 1: only forty countries, less than half out of the seven 251 00:12:28,480 --> 00:12:31,080 Speaker 1: that received the loans in the first place, have been 252 00:12:31,160 --> 00:12:33,440 Speaker 1: required to come up with an account of how they 253 00:12:33,520 --> 00:12:37,520 Speaker 1: spent that money. Well, and what's interesting is that you know, um, 254 00:12:38,280 --> 00:12:40,680 Speaker 1: here we go. And it's just another reminder that during 255 00:12:40,720 --> 00:12:44,000 Speaker 1: the pandemic listen, everybody was racing to understand what was 256 00:12:44,080 --> 00:12:46,840 Speaker 1: going on, trying to figure out how to fix the situation. 257 00:12:47,080 --> 00:12:48,679 Speaker 1: I mean, I was spending like a hundred dollars on 258 00:12:48,760 --> 00:12:51,520 Speaker 1: ten and nine masks at the time, so I wasn't 259 00:12:51,520 --> 00:12:53,400 Speaker 1: saving receipts. I mean, Joel, this is where we were 260 00:12:53,440 --> 00:12:56,040 Speaker 1: blueboard business. We get our Joe Webber joining our conversation. 261 00:12:56,120 --> 00:12:59,439 Speaker 1: I mean we were frantically trying to do things. Governments 262 00:12:59,480 --> 00:13:01,760 Speaker 1: were throwing money at things. I mean, there's going to 263 00:13:01,800 --> 00:13:03,800 Speaker 1: be screw ups totally. But we're so far past that 264 00:13:03,840 --> 00:13:05,559 Speaker 1: point where now we get to look back and second 265 00:13:05,600 --> 00:13:07,920 Speaker 1: guess everything and try and find bids of dollars that 266 00:13:07,960 --> 00:13:10,400 Speaker 1: walked out the door. So so she how far along 267 00:13:10,480 --> 00:13:14,640 Speaker 1: into the audit process are all the countries that receives 268 00:13:14,679 --> 00:13:18,040 Speaker 1: some of those some of this money. Well, very interestingly, 269 00:13:18,160 --> 00:13:20,079 Speaker 1: we know that some of the countries have done the 270 00:13:20,080 --> 00:13:23,200 Speaker 1: audits that were required. For example, Nigeria was the biggest 271 00:13:23,280 --> 00:13:25,599 Speaker 1: recipient of this money. They got three point for a 272 00:13:25,679 --> 00:13:28,520 Speaker 1: billion dollars. They have done an audited apparently, but we 273 00:13:28,840 --> 00:13:31,640 Speaker 1: don't have public access to it, so we don't know 274 00:13:31,720 --> 00:13:34,520 Speaker 1: how much of their money got misspendam disappropriated. But what 275 00:13:34,640 --> 00:13:37,800 Speaker 1: we do know is that in countries like Cameroon and 276 00:13:38,160 --> 00:13:42,800 Speaker 1: Malawi and even Congo to DRC, we are starting to 277 00:13:42,880 --> 00:13:46,080 Speaker 1: see the results of those audits being published and they're 278 00:13:46,160 --> 00:13:50,160 Speaker 1: showing that hundreds of millions of dollars at least so 279 00:13:50,360 --> 00:13:54,760 Speaker 1: far has been misappropriated. Um Now, Transparency International has been 280 00:13:54,800 --> 00:13:57,600 Speaker 1: trying to track this and figure out where this money went. 281 00:13:57,760 --> 00:13:59,599 Speaker 1: And it's quite interesting that when you ask the I 282 00:13:59,720 --> 00:14:01,800 Speaker 1: m F the about it, what they like to say is, well, 283 00:14:01,880 --> 00:14:03,920 Speaker 1: we disburse the money and it went to those countries, 284 00:14:04,320 --> 00:14:08,520 Speaker 1: and those countries they spent their money then on COVID relief, 285 00:14:08,600 --> 00:14:10,839 Speaker 1: so you can't really trace it back to us and 286 00:14:10,920 --> 00:14:13,000 Speaker 1: say it was ours at that point. So there's a 287 00:14:13,000 --> 00:14:15,559 Speaker 1: little bit of a transparency issue in terms of who 288 00:14:15,760 --> 00:14:17,719 Speaker 1: is going to be accountable for this well. As Tim 289 00:14:17,760 --> 00:14:20,000 Speaker 1: said to me during the break before you started problems 290 00:14:20,160 --> 00:14:23,440 Speaker 1: in the Congo, yeah, I mean shocking well, and it's led, 291 00:14:23,480 --> 00:14:26,560 Speaker 1: as you write share, it's led to former health minister 292 00:14:26,800 --> 00:14:31,440 Speaker 1: being arrested in August, though he has publicly denied the allegation. Hey, Sherry, 293 00:14:31,440 --> 00:14:33,520 Speaker 1: I'm wondering if there are any examples, any reporting of 294 00:14:34,120 --> 00:14:36,720 Speaker 1: countries where the debits equal to credits, where things do 295 00:14:36,840 --> 00:14:40,760 Speaker 1: add up. You know, we're not even getting that level 296 00:14:40,800 --> 00:14:43,360 Speaker 1: of this disclosure at this point. Um. There are certainly 297 00:14:43,440 --> 00:14:46,000 Speaker 1: some countries that, especially in Latin Herricket, that have put 298 00:14:46,080 --> 00:14:49,239 Speaker 1: in place, uh, these kind of websites where you supposedly 299 00:14:49,280 --> 00:14:51,520 Speaker 1: are able to go on and see the contracts that 300 00:14:51,640 --> 00:14:55,560 Speaker 1: were awarded and who got them. Um. This was also 301 00:14:55,600 --> 00:14:57,760 Speaker 1: in some cases required by the NMF, and the im 302 00:14:57,760 --> 00:15:00,480 Speaker 1: not says, well, if you include that universe of countries, 303 00:15:00,520 --> 00:15:03,040 Speaker 1: then we actually do have quite a lot of accountability 304 00:15:03,080 --> 00:15:07,280 Speaker 1: out there. But the question of whether and when these 305 00:15:07,320 --> 00:15:09,920 Speaker 1: audits of the misspending are ever going to be released 306 00:15:10,280 --> 00:15:12,120 Speaker 1: is a good one. But you know that's said. I mean, 307 00:15:12,440 --> 00:15:14,640 Speaker 1: the i m F had a very difficult dilemma at 308 00:15:14,680 --> 00:15:16,040 Speaker 1: the time. I mean, this is one of the most 309 00:15:16,600 --> 00:15:22,200 Speaker 1: difficult things that UM, that a relief effort can can 310 00:15:22,320 --> 00:15:25,360 Speaker 1: ask is do you push the money out quickly, UM 311 00:15:25,440 --> 00:15:27,320 Speaker 1: and try to just hope and make sure it gets 312 00:15:27,360 --> 00:15:29,200 Speaker 1: to some of the right places, or do you take 313 00:15:29,360 --> 00:15:33,000 Speaker 1: longer time to put state guards in place and then 314 00:15:33,400 --> 00:15:37,240 Speaker 1: in that event you also cause lives j loss. You know, 315 00:15:37,320 --> 00:15:40,400 Speaker 1: I think the speed at which money was deployed I 316 00:15:40,480 --> 00:15:42,200 Speaker 1: kind of joked earlier, but I mean I think it 317 00:15:42,320 --> 00:15:46,320 Speaker 1: was imperative considering the circumstances. But there are also has been, 318 00:15:46,440 --> 00:15:49,120 Speaker 1: you know, some precedent for this and that eventually would 319 00:15:49,120 --> 00:15:52,280 Speaker 1: ask for receipts. Isn't that right, Jerry? This is the 320 00:15:52,360 --> 00:15:55,520 Speaker 1: first time really that we are starting to actually see, 321 00:15:56,160 --> 00:15:59,200 Speaker 1: um this this level of accountability you know, the IMF 322 00:15:59,360 --> 00:16:04,720 Speaker 1: only released in t to put into place, uh, increased 323 00:16:04,800 --> 00:16:08,920 Speaker 1: safeguards for corrupt anti corruption measures. And so this is 324 00:16:09,000 --> 00:16:12,840 Speaker 1: actually the first kind of global crisis in which we 325 00:16:13,040 --> 00:16:15,760 Speaker 1: do have at least some attempts to try to figure 326 00:16:15,760 --> 00:16:19,720 Speaker 1: out where that money has gone. And we're in general 327 00:16:19,800 --> 00:16:23,680 Speaker 1: we've gotten better at tracking down um missing money for this. 328 00:16:23,840 --> 00:16:27,440 Speaker 1: And you spoke with people at Transparency International, what what 329 00:16:28,000 --> 00:16:32,040 Speaker 1: kind of perspective did they offer on on being able 330 00:16:32,080 --> 00:16:35,120 Speaker 1: to monitor this much money? You go, I'm missing? So 331 00:16:35,680 --> 00:16:38,800 Speaker 1: what groups like Transparency International and also Human Rights Watch 332 00:16:38,840 --> 00:16:40,560 Speaker 1: has been looking at this too. What they'd like to 333 00:16:40,640 --> 00:16:45,400 Speaker 1: see is actually just a lot more accountability and transparency 334 00:16:45,480 --> 00:16:48,040 Speaker 1: on the on the part of these governments in terms 335 00:16:48,080 --> 00:16:52,840 Speaker 1: of their spending, what sorts of contracts and uh kind 336 00:16:52,880 --> 00:16:55,160 Speaker 1: of you know, just the receipts and everything that that 337 00:16:55,320 --> 00:16:58,240 Speaker 1: the IMF had asked for to be available online. And 338 00:16:59,000 --> 00:17:01,400 Speaker 1: the idea is that when you do that, then you 339 00:17:01,560 --> 00:17:04,200 Speaker 1: have civil society in each of these countries to be 340 00:17:04,280 --> 00:17:06,760 Speaker 1: able to follow up. You have media pressure, you have 341 00:17:07,240 --> 00:17:09,840 Speaker 1: you know, various forces to be able to say, hey, 342 00:17:09,880 --> 00:17:13,879 Speaker 1: look this money was misspent. That money, you know, looks 343 00:17:13,880 --> 00:17:15,720 Speaker 1: like it went to the right place and that actually 344 00:17:15,760 --> 00:17:18,040 Speaker 1: acts as as a as a checks and balances on 345 00:17:18,119 --> 00:17:20,240 Speaker 1: the whole system. Well, the whole point is, you know, 346 00:17:20,359 --> 00:17:22,439 Speaker 1: and you hope for some change because ultimately we may 347 00:17:22,520 --> 00:17:25,240 Speaker 1: joke about it and not surprised to see maybe you know, 348 00:17:25,320 --> 00:17:27,119 Speaker 1: in some of these parts of the world developing in 349 00:17:27,160 --> 00:17:29,520 Speaker 1: particular where there's you know, it's business as usual in 350 00:17:29,640 --> 00:17:33,960 Speaker 1: terms of misallocation of funds or more severe. But people 351 00:17:34,000 --> 00:17:38,440 Speaker 1: are impacted as a result, right for sure. I mean 352 00:17:38,560 --> 00:17:43,080 Speaker 1: what what Transparency International says is, you know, look, whenever, 353 00:17:43,480 --> 00:17:46,720 Speaker 1: whenever you have this misallocation of money, it's it's not 354 00:17:46,840 --> 00:17:49,800 Speaker 1: just about money, It's about lives, right, It's about less 355 00:17:49,840 --> 00:17:53,280 Speaker 1: money for ventilators, less money for mobile hospitals and ppe 356 00:17:53,800 --> 00:17:56,639 Speaker 1: and you know, it really comes down to people who 357 00:17:56,960 --> 00:17:59,480 Speaker 1: just aren't getting the relief at the very bottom of 358 00:17:59,560 --> 00:18:04,440 Speaker 1: the food same. So what will change going forward if 359 00:18:04,560 --> 00:18:08,200 Speaker 1: more money uh leaves the m f H to to 360 00:18:08,640 --> 00:18:11,680 Speaker 1: you know, countries and need are there any safeguards that 361 00:18:11,760 --> 00:18:14,000 Speaker 1: have been in place put in place now that weren't 362 00:18:14,040 --> 00:18:17,360 Speaker 1: there a year ago? But the must says that they 363 00:18:17,760 --> 00:18:21,399 Speaker 1: are as as a condition of some of the future 364 00:18:21,520 --> 00:18:25,240 Speaker 1: loans that they're giving out their demanding more accountability, more transparency. 365 00:18:25,760 --> 00:18:27,560 Speaker 1: Of course, a lot of these countries, as we know, 366 00:18:27,720 --> 00:18:30,400 Speaker 1: I mean they you know, even at the best of times, 367 00:18:30,680 --> 00:18:34,479 Speaker 1: they really sort of lacked safeguards and they're spending uh 368 00:18:34,640 --> 00:18:37,119 Speaker 1: you know, sometimes can't always be traced quite so easily. 369 00:18:37,119 --> 00:18:40,480 Speaker 1: It doesn't mean there's necessarily, you know, embeddlement of people 370 00:18:40,600 --> 00:18:44,040 Speaker 1: rushing off money in his bank account. Sure do we 371 00:18:44,119 --> 00:18:46,560 Speaker 1: gotta run, but it's uh definitely start. We should check 372 00:18:46,560 --> 00:18:49,280 Speaker 1: out at Bloomberg dot com dot com shod in Process 373 00:18:49,400 --> 00:18:51,680 Speaker 1: senior investigations report at Bloomberg News and our thanks to 374 00:18:51,720 --> 00:19:01,600 Speaker 1: Joel Webber, editor a Business Week. This is Bloomberg Business 375 00:19:01,720 --> 00:19:05,520 Speaker 1: Week with Carol Masser and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stenovic 376 00:19:05,880 --> 00:19:08,719 Speaker 1: on Bloomberg Radio. You are listening to Bloomberg Business Week 377 00:19:08,760 --> 00:19:11,119 Speaker 1: Carol Master along with Tim Stanovic and in Focus this 378 00:19:11,200 --> 00:19:14,840 Speaker 1: week Top twenty six meeting in Glasgow, Scotland. Top of 379 00:19:14,920 --> 00:19:17,560 Speaker 1: mine for everyone there whether rivalry between the world's two 380 00:19:17,600 --> 00:19:20,960 Speaker 1: biggest polluters who churn out, cough up you can pick 381 00:19:21,000 --> 00:19:26,000 Speaker 1: your description some global admissions they are the big polluters? 382 00:19:26,080 --> 00:19:28,720 Speaker 1: Will they both be agents of change? Our roadblocks in 383 00:19:28,760 --> 00:19:31,520 Speaker 1: the process and he wrote about it in the Saturday column. 384 00:19:31,600 --> 00:19:34,639 Speaker 1: Andy Brown is editorial director at Bloomberg New Economy. He 385 00:19:34,800 --> 00:19:38,440 Speaker 1: joins us on the phone from New York City. So, Andy, 386 00:19:38,520 --> 00:19:41,159 Speaker 1: the rivalry between the US and China doesn't It's not 387 00:19:41,280 --> 00:19:43,920 Speaker 1: just when it comes to technology, it's not just when 388 00:19:43,960 --> 00:19:48,760 Speaker 1: it comes to physical might. It also comes to the 389 00:19:48,840 --> 00:19:53,240 Speaker 1: green ambitions. So who is going to win here are 390 00:19:53,280 --> 00:19:58,360 Speaker 1: the incentives aligned? Well? The question, the question, I think 391 00:19:58,520 --> 00:20:01,920 Speaker 1: is whether these two trees they're going to race each 392 00:20:01,960 --> 00:20:05,439 Speaker 1: other to the top or to the bottom on climate Um, 393 00:20:05,760 --> 00:20:09,840 Speaker 1: it's pretty obvious that we're not going to get decarbonization 394 00:20:10,160 --> 00:20:12,880 Speaker 1: in the time frame that we needed and at scale 395 00:20:13,119 --> 00:20:18,480 Speaker 1: which we needed without real collaboration, deep collaboration between the 396 00:20:18,640 --> 00:20:21,919 Speaker 1: US and China. Um. They are, as you just noted, 397 00:20:22,040 --> 00:20:27,000 Speaker 1: the world's two largest polluters account of all polluted pollute, 398 00:20:27,320 --> 00:20:31,480 Speaker 1: all emissions, China is by far the biggest China. China 399 00:20:31,560 --> 00:20:36,080 Speaker 1: is has more emissions than all developing countries combined. These 400 00:20:36,119 --> 00:20:39,440 Speaker 1: emissions are bigger than the next four countries combined, that's 401 00:20:39,800 --> 00:20:44,920 Speaker 1: the United States, in Japan and Russia and so But 402 00:20:45,119 --> 00:20:48,080 Speaker 1: also they have, you know, some of the best world's 403 00:20:48,119 --> 00:20:53,080 Speaker 1: best technologies at both ai superpowers. They have the biggest 404 00:20:53,200 --> 00:20:58,760 Speaker 1: pools of research scientists, um, you know, and and it's 405 00:20:58,800 --> 00:21:03,359 Speaker 1: hard to imagine that technologies that we need coming on 406 00:21:03,680 --> 00:21:06,359 Speaker 1: stream at scale without the two of them working to 407 00:21:06,440 --> 00:21:09,080 Speaker 1: go and not just on the technologies themselves, but on 408 00:21:09,280 --> 00:21:13,879 Speaker 1: the regulations, on the standards, on the trading systems that 409 00:21:14,040 --> 00:21:16,960 Speaker 1: will be required. You know, it's like a bad family 410 00:21:17,080 --> 00:21:21,959 Speaker 1: spat Andy, I think about this in that will they 411 00:21:22,080 --> 00:21:25,680 Speaker 1: decide to kind of bridge their differences and understand that 412 00:21:25,920 --> 00:21:29,160 Speaker 1: for the greater good of humanity? Really, when we're talking 413 00:21:29,160 --> 00:21:32,439 Speaker 1: about climate change, will these two nations put aside their 414 00:21:32,480 --> 00:21:36,960 Speaker 1: differences and do the right thing? Is their political will 415 00:21:37,240 --> 00:21:41,119 Speaker 1: geopolitical will? Is there? You know, a social consciousness of 416 00:21:41,200 --> 00:21:43,880 Speaker 1: the two to really set it straight, especially when you've 417 00:21:43,920 --> 00:21:47,800 Speaker 1: got the United States has flip flopped Trump versus maybe 418 00:21:47,840 --> 00:21:51,359 Speaker 1: where we are today and prior to President Trump. And 419 00:21:51,400 --> 00:21:54,760 Speaker 1: then you've also got China who is all in on 420 00:21:54,920 --> 00:21:57,280 Speaker 1: coal still, but they're also very aggressive when it comes 421 00:21:57,320 --> 00:22:01,679 Speaker 1: to green It's a great question. So we've we've got 422 00:22:01,760 --> 00:22:04,000 Speaker 1: two examples of what happens when the U. S. And 423 00:22:04,119 --> 00:22:08,400 Speaker 1: China decide to collaborate and what happens when they don't. 424 00:22:09,119 --> 00:22:12,960 Speaker 1: And the first was in two thousand and fifteen UM, 425 00:22:13,440 --> 00:22:19,080 Speaker 1: and it was really deaf us diplomacy that got China 426 00:22:19,320 --> 00:22:25,040 Speaker 1: on board UM disagreement to limit temperature increases to one 427 00:22:25,080 --> 00:22:29,720 Speaker 1: point five degrees centigrade above UM pre industrial levels and 428 00:22:29,840 --> 00:22:34,920 Speaker 1: well below two degrees. Without China UM, that agreement would 429 00:22:34,960 --> 00:22:37,280 Speaker 1: not have occurred. That was that was a real triumph 430 00:22:37,320 --> 00:22:42,360 Speaker 1: of American diplomacy UM. In two thousand and nine, which 431 00:22:42,480 --> 00:22:47,680 Speaker 1: was the previous United Nations meeting um UH, this meeting 432 00:22:47,840 --> 00:22:53,879 Speaker 1: ended in complete disarray UM. China was the spoiler, and 433 00:22:54,160 --> 00:22:57,320 Speaker 1: things got so bad that at one point China's chief 434 00:22:57,640 --> 00:23:02,720 Speaker 1: Climate negotiated you don't want ends up raising his voice 435 00:23:02,840 --> 00:23:07,680 Speaker 1: literally yelling President then President Obama UM for having a 436 00:23:07,720 --> 00:23:10,720 Speaker 1: temerity to walk into a room where Chinese Premier Wa 437 00:23:10,800 --> 00:23:13,840 Speaker 1: Jaba was having meetings where they believe that the Indians 438 00:23:13,920 --> 00:23:20,720 Speaker 1: and the South Africans UM so and unfortunately the atmosphere 439 00:23:20,760 --> 00:23:25,879 Speaker 1: is surrounding the Glasgow Scotland talks UM much care simply 440 00:23:26,040 --> 00:23:30,359 Speaker 1: is much more similar to Copenhagen UH than to Paris. 441 00:23:30,880 --> 00:23:34,760 Speaker 1: In fact, relations between these two countries have not been 442 00:23:35,080 --> 00:23:39,600 Speaker 1: as bad UM since they were restored, All since they've 443 00:23:39,600 --> 00:23:44,080 Speaker 1: stablished diplomatic relations UM you know, and and the the 444 00:23:44,359 --> 00:23:47,120 Speaker 1: Americans are saying to the Chinese, listen, we've got lots 445 00:23:47,200 --> 00:23:51,159 Speaker 1: of problems on the military, on the security, on trade, 446 00:23:51,240 --> 00:23:56,160 Speaker 1: investment in song, but let's carve out this area um 447 00:23:56,760 --> 00:24:00,840 Speaker 1: of climate change where we can collaborate for the good 448 00:24:00,880 --> 00:24:04,240 Speaker 1: of humanity and the Chinese a basis saying, you know, 449 00:24:04,600 --> 00:24:07,760 Speaker 1: no way, you don't get to play with us. We 450 00:24:07,840 --> 00:24:10,280 Speaker 1: don't you know, we're not gonna play play play ball 451 00:24:10,359 --> 00:24:14,159 Speaker 1: with you on climate and and and and and be 452 00:24:14,280 --> 00:24:18,320 Speaker 1: at loggerheads on everything else. Andy, what would constructive competition 453 00:24:18,440 --> 00:24:20,560 Speaker 1: look like? Though, because you do raise in your column 454 00:24:20,840 --> 00:24:23,320 Speaker 1: some important points about what China is doing right now 455 00:24:23,640 --> 00:24:26,800 Speaker 1: in terms of production of solar panels and and actually 456 00:24:26,880 --> 00:24:30,680 Speaker 1: use of electric vehicles. Yeah. Well, I mean if you 457 00:24:30,760 --> 00:24:35,439 Speaker 1: if you take some of the most promising technologies um 458 00:24:36,000 --> 00:24:40,120 Speaker 1: around for instance, you know, green hydrogen or carbon capture 459 00:24:40,320 --> 00:24:44,040 Speaker 1: and storage. A lot of these technologies of Bill Gates 460 00:24:44,240 --> 00:24:47,760 Speaker 1: was pointing out in an opened in the Financial Times, 461 00:24:47,800 --> 00:24:51,920 Speaker 1: like it was yesterday. They've been invented and now they required. 462 00:24:52,400 --> 00:24:56,200 Speaker 1: What's required is that is to model them, um and 463 00:24:56,320 --> 00:24:59,840 Speaker 1: then roll them out at scale. Um. Well, you know, 464 00:25:00,080 --> 00:25:03,600 Speaker 1: China is the place where you can actually do this. Um, 465 00:25:03,960 --> 00:25:06,159 Speaker 1: you know, it has the world's biggest market. One in 466 00:25:06,400 --> 00:25:12,560 Speaker 1: three solar panels and wind turbines are deployed in China. 467 00:25:12,880 --> 00:25:16,200 Speaker 1: Half of all the evs in the world in China. 468 00:25:16,920 --> 00:25:19,080 Speaker 1: Um you know. But but doing that is going to 469 00:25:19,200 --> 00:25:23,159 Speaker 1: require the US and China collaborating around the technology. And 470 00:25:23,200 --> 00:25:26,440 Speaker 1: if you think about the electric car, what is it, Well, 471 00:25:26,640 --> 00:25:28,800 Speaker 1: you know you've got a lithium ion battery and guess 472 00:25:28,880 --> 00:25:34,600 Speaker 1: what China has of the global output of lithium iron batteries. 473 00:25:34,800 --> 00:25:39,080 Speaker 1: It also requires technology hardware, and guess what you know 474 00:25:39,240 --> 00:25:43,320 Speaker 1: pretty much every advanced semiconductor in the world is built 475 00:25:43,440 --> 00:25:48,920 Speaker 1: with US technology. Now, if if, if, if, automats automakers 476 00:25:49,119 --> 00:25:52,240 Speaker 1: can't be sure that they can integrate these US and 477 00:25:52,440 --> 00:25:56,720 Speaker 1: Chinese technologies in a single vehicle, it's going to seriously 478 00:25:57,600 --> 00:26:03,920 Speaker 1: impede the rapid development of CONTE one example of what 479 00:26:04,160 --> 00:26:07,320 Speaker 1: needs to happen very very quickly for the world to 480 00:26:07,400 --> 00:26:12,359 Speaker 1: avoid the worst. Never more have we needed collaboration between 481 00:26:12,359 --> 00:26:14,040 Speaker 1: the U S and China. Andy, Thank you so much. 482 00:26:14,119 --> 00:26:16,919 Speaker 1: Andy Brown, editorial director at Bloomberg New Economy. Check out 483 00:26:17,000 --> 00:26:18,920 Speaker 1: his column. You can sign up for the New Economy 484 00:26:18,960 --> 00:26:23,080 Speaker 1: daily newsletter at Bloomberg dot com slash New hyphen Economy. 485 00:26:23,440 --> 00:26:27,000 Speaker 1: You're listening to Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and 486 00:26:27,119 --> 00:26:31,880 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stenovic on Bloomberg Radio. So something 487 00:26:31,960 --> 00:26:34,200 Speaker 1: we all seem not to be able to get enough of. 488 00:26:34,520 --> 00:26:36,840 Speaker 1: It's also something we'll be talking about this week him 489 00:26:36,840 --> 00:26:40,000 Speaker 1: at the upcoming Bloomberg Life Financial Innovations Conference. It's about 490 00:26:40,040 --> 00:26:43,760 Speaker 1: crypto Wall Street amassing a crypto army and paying up 491 00:26:43,880 --> 00:26:47,359 Speaker 1: for recruits. Banks and financial firms added one thousand crypto 492 00:26:47,520 --> 00:26:51,240 Speaker 1: rose crypto roles since two thousand eighteen, and they're getting 493 00:26:51,280 --> 00:26:52,920 Speaker 1: some pay bumps. Yeah, it's one of the most read 494 00:26:52,960 --> 00:26:54,720 Speaker 1: stories on the Bloomberg today. So let's get to it 495 00:26:54,800 --> 00:26:57,960 Speaker 1: with Bloomberg News Finance and Investing reporter Eleanor's song. She's 496 00:26:57,960 --> 00:27:01,600 Speaker 1: in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker's studio here in New York City. 497 00:27:01,640 --> 00:27:05,280 Speaker 1: So Eleanor, what's going on here? So we're seeing banks 498 00:27:05,400 --> 00:27:08,680 Speaker 1: really ramping up their pay and and crypto hires in 499 00:27:08,720 --> 00:27:11,280 Speaker 1: the past three and five years. And another set of 500 00:27:11,320 --> 00:27:14,000 Speaker 1: LinkedIn data shows that the number of annual new hires 501 00:27:14,240 --> 00:27:17,720 Speaker 1: has more than tripled since sounds like a lot, yes, 502 00:27:18,000 --> 00:27:22,560 Speaker 1: yes for sure, and um these positions can include researchers, traders, 503 00:27:22,760 --> 00:27:25,960 Speaker 1: risk analysts, as well as engineers and colders. And we're 504 00:27:26,000 --> 00:27:29,000 Speaker 1: saying that a pay bunk pay pumps. So there are 505 00:27:29,520 --> 00:27:34,520 Speaker 1: um offering a premium for a mid level trader or 506 00:27:34,600 --> 00:27:38,480 Speaker 1: banker role compartable over a comfortable position at the same institution. 507 00:27:38,960 --> 00:27:42,440 Speaker 1: And then yes for for roles that like head of 508 00:27:42,520 --> 00:27:45,920 Speaker 1: crypto teams, research team, trading teams, they could get the 509 00:27:46,000 --> 00:27:50,720 Speaker 1: number of premium as highlights. Wow, what's so interesting about 510 00:27:50,720 --> 00:27:52,920 Speaker 1: this is it's all happening when there's this sort of 511 00:27:52,960 --> 00:27:56,520 Speaker 1: bifurcation happening between big banks and startups that are well, 512 00:27:56,560 --> 00:27:59,440 Speaker 1: are they fintech companies? Are they banks? What do you 513 00:27:59,520 --> 00:28:04,280 Speaker 1: regulates think? It's kind of unclear, Yeah, exactly. And these 514 00:28:04,560 --> 00:28:08,399 Speaker 1: startups are actually competing with banks in hiring cryptal talent. 515 00:28:08,840 --> 00:28:11,560 Speaker 1: I talked to so many people moving from banks to 516 00:28:11,760 --> 00:28:14,600 Speaker 1: the crypto native space, and they are all saying that 517 00:28:14,760 --> 00:28:18,080 Speaker 1: they are hiring extensively from the traditional finance market. So 518 00:28:18,240 --> 00:28:21,119 Speaker 1: this is so fascinating because we were talking before we 519 00:28:21,200 --> 00:28:24,600 Speaker 1: got going that for how long the traditional financial firms, 520 00:28:24,640 --> 00:28:28,720 Speaker 1: big banks, Wall Street firms for years go back, certainly five, seven, 521 00:28:28,840 --> 00:28:31,120 Speaker 1: ten years ago. We're saying this crypto thing, I don't 522 00:28:31,160 --> 00:28:33,879 Speaker 1: know so much about it. Um, what what do they 523 00:28:33,920 --> 00:28:36,000 Speaker 1: say when you reach out to them? Are they willing 524 00:28:36,080 --> 00:28:38,920 Speaker 1: to talk freely or tell us how you're figuring out 525 00:28:38,960 --> 00:28:41,840 Speaker 1: what's going on? It's interesting. They definitely need a little 526 00:28:41,880 --> 00:28:44,680 Speaker 1: convincing and some just straight up don't really want to 527 00:28:44,720 --> 00:28:49,680 Speaker 1: talk about it. Um, but they are all saying that, okay, 528 00:28:50,000 --> 00:28:53,240 Speaker 1: maybe we we need to. We are showing interest while 529 00:28:53,360 --> 00:28:57,720 Speaker 1: keeping in mind that there's regulation and there's definitely risks 530 00:28:57,840 --> 00:29:00,480 Speaker 1: and caution that we need to have. So so yeah, 531 00:29:00,560 --> 00:29:04,680 Speaker 1: banks are still quite reserved about it. But um, they 532 00:29:05,080 --> 00:29:10,480 Speaker 1: can't really, um be hesitant anymore because clients are looking 533 00:29:10,880 --> 00:29:13,400 Speaker 1: to to invest in crypto and asking and they can't 534 00:29:13,480 --> 00:29:15,960 Speaker 1: risk their clients going to the competitors. Well, and that's 535 00:29:15,960 --> 00:29:18,160 Speaker 1: the key part here is the clients. And it's something 536 00:29:18,240 --> 00:29:20,880 Speaker 1: that I'm reminded about when I think about which Jamie 537 00:29:20,960 --> 00:29:24,560 Speaker 1: Diamond of JP Morgan Chase has said repeatedly about his 538 00:29:24,640 --> 00:29:26,800 Speaker 1: thoughts on crypto, and it's something that you refer to 539 00:29:26,920 --> 00:29:29,400 Speaker 1: in the piece. You say, remind us that he called 540 00:29:29,440 --> 00:29:32,440 Speaker 1: it worthless in October after deeming it a fraud back in, 541 00:29:33,800 --> 00:29:36,240 Speaker 1: So is what's happening at JP Morgan and the other banks. 542 00:29:36,240 --> 00:29:37,960 Speaker 1: They're saying, wait a second, even though we might not 543 00:29:38,080 --> 00:29:40,000 Speaker 1: think it's something that personally we want to invest in 544 00:29:40,120 --> 00:29:42,240 Speaker 1: and we want to be a part of our clients 545 00:29:42,320 --> 00:29:44,200 Speaker 1: want it, so we need to have a presence there 546 00:29:44,400 --> 00:29:47,160 Speaker 1: right Yeah, exactly. And we're seeing from from the LinkedIn 547 00:29:47,240 --> 00:29:50,160 Speaker 1: data um that JP Morgan is actually among the top 548 00:29:50,240 --> 00:29:54,240 Speaker 1: banks that have hired cryptal talents, and right now on 549 00:29:54,480 --> 00:29:57,960 Speaker 1: the linkeding job posting site, they also have a lot 550 00:29:58,080 --> 00:30:00,640 Speaker 1: of postings for cryptal talents. But you guys call the 551 00:30:00,720 --> 00:30:02,600 Speaker 1: firms or when you call them in the reporting and 552 00:30:02,640 --> 00:30:04,760 Speaker 1: you say JP Morgan or City Group of Morgan's day 553 00:30:04,800 --> 00:30:07,000 Speaker 1: and they tell us what you're doing. Are they freely 554 00:30:07,240 --> 00:30:11,640 Speaker 1: telling you what they're doing. No, they're pretty quiet about it. 555 00:30:11,800 --> 00:30:15,680 Speaker 1: It is fascinating because you do wonder I think, you know, 556 00:30:15,760 --> 00:30:17,800 Speaker 1: I think about the summit that we're getting ready to do, Tim. 557 00:30:17,840 --> 00:30:21,280 Speaker 1: I mean, everybody within the established financial world are trying 558 00:30:21,400 --> 00:30:23,440 Speaker 1: to I'm going to talk to the H and R 559 00:30:23,520 --> 00:30:27,520 Speaker 1: Block CEO, you know there in terms of tax filings 560 00:30:27,520 --> 00:30:30,640 Speaker 1: for individuals, for small businesses, everybody's keeping an eye on 561 00:30:30,720 --> 00:30:33,360 Speaker 1: what's happening in the crypto space, and you can definitely 562 00:30:33,400 --> 00:30:36,440 Speaker 1: see that at this point, Eleanor, I mean, everybody's kind 563 00:30:36,480 --> 00:30:38,440 Speaker 1: of going after I guess what you could say is 564 00:30:38,480 --> 00:30:42,360 Speaker 1: a smaller pool of individuals right now exactly. Um. Actually, 565 00:30:42,400 --> 00:30:45,120 Speaker 1: I have sources telling me that banks right now are 566 00:30:45,200 --> 00:30:50,480 Speaker 1: looking specifically for people who left banks in eighteen and 567 00:30:50,600 --> 00:30:53,400 Speaker 1: joined the crypto equal system, and they're trying to attract 568 00:30:53,440 --> 00:30:56,840 Speaker 1: them back because those people who have an understanding of 569 00:30:57,160 --> 00:30:59,920 Speaker 1: systematic trading in crypto. Okay, So I pose a question 570 00:31:00,040 --> 00:31:01,920 Speaker 1: to you that Carol posted me that I couldn't answer 571 00:31:02,080 --> 00:31:04,360 Speaker 1: just a few minutes ago, and it's about the connection 572 00:31:04,480 --> 00:31:06,400 Speaker 1: and the parallels between the dot com boom in the 573 00:31:06,480 --> 00:31:09,240 Speaker 1: late nineties early two thousands and the underlying technology. How 574 00:31:09,280 --> 00:31:11,719 Speaker 1: would you answer the question of what your sources are 575 00:31:11,760 --> 00:31:13,800 Speaker 1: saying is the technology that's here to stay if some 576 00:31:13,880 --> 00:31:16,240 Speaker 1: of these cryptos do end up going to zero, Well, 577 00:31:16,440 --> 00:31:20,160 Speaker 1: they are saying, honestly, my sources don't see the bear 578 00:31:20,320 --> 00:31:24,000 Speaker 1: market coming anytime soon, and they are calling this crypto 579 00:31:24,320 --> 00:31:27,959 Speaker 1: as the early days of capital markets two point oh um. 580 00:31:28,200 --> 00:31:32,800 Speaker 1: And they're um in comparing their crypto startups to like 581 00:31:33,080 --> 00:31:36,360 Speaker 1: early days of Facebook, Apple, and saying that over time, 582 00:31:36,520 --> 00:31:40,640 Speaker 1: Wall streets ability to offer competitive compensation will diminish because 583 00:31:40,920 --> 00:31:45,120 Speaker 1: these firms, these cryptal startups, are able to offer ownership stakes, 584 00:31:45,520 --> 00:31:49,200 Speaker 1: digital tokens, and later on probably really high salaries. It's 585 00:31:49,240 --> 00:31:50,840 Speaker 1: hard not to feel that something's going to change, but 586 00:31:50,880 --> 00:31:52,880 Speaker 1: it's just not quite sure how it all takes out. Um, 587 00:31:53,000 --> 00:31:54,400 Speaker 1: but we know how it's taken out when it comes 588 00:31:54,440 --> 00:31:56,280 Speaker 1: to if you've worked in the crypto industry. While Street 589 00:31:56,320 --> 00:31:59,400 Speaker 1: apparently wants you, that's Eleanor's song. She's finance an investing 590 00:31:59,440 --> 00:32:04,760 Speaker 1: reporter Bloomberg News. Yeah, I bet you let me drive. 591 00:32:05,040 --> 00:32:08,920 Speaker 1: Oh no, no, no, no, this is not a home 592 00:32:09,480 --> 00:32:17,760 Speaker 1: a right, please, I want to drive the question drive. 593 00:32:20,600 --> 00:32:26,960 Speaker 1: This is the drive to the globe down on Bloomberg Radio. 594 00:32:27,080 --> 00:32:29,360 Speaker 1: All right, just about tim nts left in today's trading session. 595 00:32:29,400 --> 00:32:31,480 Speaker 1: So let's get to it. Let's drive to the clothes 596 00:32:31,560 --> 00:32:34,200 Speaker 1: with Hank Smith back with us, head of investment strategy 597 00:32:34,240 --> 00:32:37,200 Speaker 1: over at however, Trust once again on the phone from 598 00:32:37,200 --> 00:32:40,480 Speaker 1: Bradner Pennsylvania. So Hank, good to have you here. Feels 599 00:32:40,520 --> 00:32:43,280 Speaker 1: like we've gotten through a lot over the last month 600 00:32:43,360 --> 00:32:46,400 Speaker 1: in terms of earnings. We're seeing out performance once again 601 00:32:46,880 --> 00:32:49,280 Speaker 1: when it comes to earnings beats and we're seeing the 602 00:32:49,400 --> 00:32:52,760 Speaker 1: markets up a lot as a result. We're up six 603 00:32:52,840 --> 00:32:55,360 Speaker 1: percent gain in the benchmark since the earning season began, 604 00:32:55,480 --> 00:32:59,720 Speaker 1: best performance of our comparable period in seven years. Just 605 00:33:00,000 --> 00:33:03,360 Speaker 1: I fight in your view and will it continue? Yeah, 606 00:33:03,760 --> 00:33:06,440 Speaker 1: good afternoon, Kyle. Great to be with you. Yes, it 607 00:33:06,760 --> 00:33:10,480 Speaker 1: is justified. Far cry from where we were in early 608 00:33:10,600 --> 00:33:14,280 Speaker 1: September when the markets were concerned about third quarter earnings 609 00:33:14,360 --> 00:33:18,520 Speaker 1: based on the slowdown economic slowdown and concerned about the 610 00:33:18,640 --> 00:33:22,440 Speaker 1: debt ceiling and Washington d C uncertainty. And of course 611 00:33:22,520 --> 00:33:25,960 Speaker 1: Corporate America has come through beautifully in the third quarter 612 00:33:26,160 --> 00:33:32,000 Speaker 1: with of those companies reporting beating on the bottom line 613 00:33:32,000 --> 00:33:36,360 Speaker 1: and beating on the top line. And so I think 614 00:33:36,440 --> 00:33:39,120 Speaker 1: what I think, Actually, Tim's going to correct you because 615 00:33:39,120 --> 00:33:42,400 Speaker 1: I think it's what is to be specific according to 616 00:33:42,560 --> 00:33:48,280 Speaker 1: data from research you read our mind, Hank, I appreciate 617 00:33:48,360 --> 00:33:52,720 Speaker 1: the detail. Sorry, continue, go ahead, you know, I think 618 00:33:52,840 --> 00:33:56,840 Speaker 1: I think what is proven to be is this continues 619 00:33:56,920 --> 00:33:59,680 Speaker 1: to be a buy on the dips market, as has 620 00:33:59,760 --> 00:34:03,240 Speaker 1: been all year and in fact since the start of 621 00:34:03,280 --> 00:34:07,440 Speaker 1: the new bull market March two thousand and twenty as well. 622 00:34:07,600 --> 00:34:10,920 Speaker 1: Despite the rise in yields. With a tenure treasury at 623 00:34:10,960 --> 00:34:14,680 Speaker 1: one point five seven, it is still not competition for 624 00:34:14,760 --> 00:34:17,880 Speaker 1: the stock market. So we're still in a tina environment. 625 00:34:17,960 --> 00:34:21,239 Speaker 1: There is no alternative, and when you come right down 626 00:34:21,360 --> 00:34:27,960 Speaker 1: to buying the tina, they all apply. If you're in 627 00:34:28,000 --> 00:34:30,440 Speaker 1: the doors, then we know we're I don't know we're 628 00:34:30,480 --> 00:34:32,680 Speaker 1: moving on. No, Hank, when does the party and no, 629 00:34:32,800 --> 00:34:36,680 Speaker 1: when does the music stop? Well, let's just frame it 630 00:34:36,800 --> 00:34:40,400 Speaker 1: this way. The tail winds continue to be stronger than 631 00:34:40,440 --> 00:34:43,920 Speaker 1: the headwinds, and when that changes, I think we're we're 632 00:34:43,920 --> 00:34:46,560 Speaker 1: going to have a correction. The tail winds very simply 633 00:34:47,000 --> 00:34:52,239 Speaker 1: incredible monetary stimulus, incredible fiscal stimulus, incredible corporate earnings, and 634 00:34:52,360 --> 00:34:55,800 Speaker 1: a consumer that is in excellent shape and is willing 635 00:34:55,880 --> 00:35:00,120 Speaker 1: to spend. We still haven't really seen all the the 636 00:35:00,320 --> 00:35:03,960 Speaker 1: unleashing of pent up demand, because that delta variant did 637 00:35:04,080 --> 00:35:08,040 Speaker 1: pour some cold water over what was really an extraordinary 638 00:35:08,200 --> 00:35:13,279 Speaker 1: unleashing of pent up demand. The headwinds simply remains number 639 00:35:13,320 --> 00:35:18,000 Speaker 1: one covid um. If covid re emerges, uh, we're going 640 00:35:18,080 --> 00:35:22,000 Speaker 1: to slow down Washington d C uncertainty. We still have 641 00:35:22,080 --> 00:35:24,480 Speaker 1: a debt ceiling to pass and We still don't know 642 00:35:24,600 --> 00:35:28,440 Speaker 1: what the reconciliation bill is going to be um of 643 00:35:28,600 --> 00:35:31,360 Speaker 1: the final version of it, but we do know that 644 00:35:31,840 --> 00:35:34,640 Speaker 1: the taxes aren't going to be nearly as ownerous as 645 00:35:35,120 --> 00:35:39,040 Speaker 1: as what was feared two quarters ago. China slowing growth 646 00:35:39,440 --> 00:35:44,239 Speaker 1: is a issue as well, and of course inflation, and 647 00:35:44,400 --> 00:35:46,960 Speaker 1: that the debate that we've had now for the past 648 00:35:46,960 --> 00:35:51,279 Speaker 1: several quarters. Is this transitory inflation or is this persistent 649 00:35:51,719 --> 00:35:55,160 Speaker 1: insidious inflation? So if you're a betting man and you've 650 00:35:55,160 --> 00:35:58,040 Speaker 1: got to make investment calls for clients, would you do so? 651 00:35:59,160 --> 00:36:01,640 Speaker 1: What would you say? Can we Is it too early 652 00:36:01,719 --> 00:36:05,080 Speaker 1: to say here's what we think holds for everyone? It's 653 00:36:05,120 --> 00:36:08,120 Speaker 1: funny I was at an event and someone said to me, 654 00:36:08,480 --> 00:36:10,160 Speaker 1: because they know what I do, and like so many things, 655 00:36:10,160 --> 00:36:13,000 Speaker 1: is gonna happen with interest rights? What do you think? 656 00:36:13,719 --> 00:36:15,520 Speaker 1: And I said, even if they go up a little bit, 657 00:36:15,600 --> 00:36:20,080 Speaker 1: there's still low by a historical measure, And so I 658 00:36:20,160 --> 00:36:22,040 Speaker 1: don't think the Fed's going to do anything drastic. But 659 00:36:22,160 --> 00:36:24,000 Speaker 1: you're you're the guy who's got really got to, you know, 660 00:36:24,080 --> 00:36:28,160 Speaker 1: make decisions for you know, millions of dollars of investment money. 661 00:36:28,280 --> 00:36:32,399 Speaker 1: So what's your bed? Carol? You're you made a good 662 00:36:32,440 --> 00:36:36,000 Speaker 1: point there. The FED, whatever it's gonna do, is going 663 00:36:36,040 --> 00:36:38,840 Speaker 1: to be wealth telegraphed, and it's going to be gradual. 664 00:36:39,640 --> 00:36:43,560 Speaker 1: And I mentioned unleashing of pent up demand. We still 665 00:36:43,680 --> 00:36:46,759 Speaker 1: believe there's plenty of that to go, and we think 666 00:36:46,840 --> 00:36:50,879 Speaker 1: that is going to drive the economy uh through two 667 00:36:50,960 --> 00:36:55,640 Speaker 1: thousand twenty two incliporate earnings are going to remain robust 668 00:36:55,840 --> 00:36:59,000 Speaker 1: in that in that environment. So the Delva variant just 669 00:36:59,160 --> 00:37:03,080 Speaker 1: throw a temper very wet rag over over this unleashing 670 00:37:03,160 --> 00:37:07,080 Speaker 1: of pent up demand. It will it will resume. And 671 00:37:07,960 --> 00:37:09,680 Speaker 1: but the worry is if we do get let's say, 672 00:37:10,400 --> 00:37:13,560 Speaker 1: if anything, the Delta variant. It was troublesome, but we 673 00:37:13,719 --> 00:37:16,040 Speaker 1: managed our way through it right for the most part. 674 00:37:16,160 --> 00:37:18,120 Speaker 1: There's certainly a hotspots, and I would never say that 675 00:37:18,160 --> 00:37:20,759 Speaker 1: we've gotten through completely. But if we get something that 676 00:37:20,960 --> 00:37:24,359 Speaker 1: isn't so easily manageable, or the current vaccine doesn't isn't 677 00:37:24,360 --> 00:37:26,440 Speaker 1: able to deal with it, that's going to be a 678 00:37:26,480 --> 00:37:31,840 Speaker 1: problem potentially. But look, COVID reared its ugly head last 679 00:37:31,920 --> 00:37:35,480 Speaker 1: winter and we got through that as as well. So 680 00:37:36,080 --> 00:37:40,200 Speaker 1: I'm very optimistic that politicians are not going to repeat 681 00:37:40,239 --> 00:37:42,640 Speaker 1: the same mistakes they did early in two thousand and 682 00:37:42,760 --> 00:37:47,120 Speaker 1: twenty when they locked down the economy that I think 683 00:37:47,160 --> 00:37:49,960 Speaker 1: one of the lessons is that was not the right approach, 684 00:37:50,640 --> 00:37:55,160 Speaker 1: just choking off the economy entirely. So uh, maybe that's 685 00:37:55,200 --> 00:37:59,920 Speaker 1: misplaced optimism with regards to politicians making the right decision, 686 00:38:00,360 --> 00:38:05,279 Speaker 1: but I think I think in this case they they will. Um, 687 00:38:05,600 --> 00:38:10,719 Speaker 1: so we're rather optimistic. Yes, they're gonna be bumps in 688 00:38:10,760 --> 00:38:13,640 Speaker 1: the road. The SMP has not had a correction since 689 00:38:13,719 --> 00:38:16,920 Speaker 1: the start of this UH bull market over a year 690 00:38:16,960 --> 00:38:20,040 Speaker 1: and a half ago. That's highly unusual. Then azdec did 691 00:38:20,680 --> 00:38:24,480 Speaker 1: a year ago back in September October, but the SMP 692 00:38:24,719 --> 00:38:29,920 Speaker 1: is not an investors should uh always expect corrections. But 693 00:38:30,440 --> 00:38:33,279 Speaker 1: we believe that's going to be a buying event as 694 00:38:33,360 --> 00:38:40,200 Speaker 1: opposed to something that morphs into a bear market, which 695 00:38:40,280 --> 00:38:43,840 Speaker 1: we think is very unlikely because the risk of a 696 00:38:44,000 --> 00:38:48,200 Speaker 1: recession occurring over the next twelve eighteen months is very 697 00:38:48,280 --> 00:38:50,640 Speaker 1: very well. So where we started buying the dip and Tina, 698 00:38:51,120 --> 00:38:54,800 Speaker 1: al right, it comes back to that exactly. Hey, just 699 00:38:54,880 --> 00:38:56,759 Speaker 1: in the last thirty seconds that we have with you 700 00:38:56,880 --> 00:38:59,640 Speaker 1: hand changing on farm payrolls, we're getting that data on 701 00:38:59,719 --> 00:39:02,719 Speaker 1: Frida A four and fifty thousand is what Bloomberg economists 702 00:39:02,760 --> 00:39:05,400 Speaker 1: are expecting, or surveyed by Bloomberg, I should say, Um, 703 00:39:05,840 --> 00:39:11,960 Speaker 1: how could things go haywire? Well, well, certainly the last 704 00:39:12,040 --> 00:39:15,160 Speaker 1: month's report was way way off the mark. And and 705 00:39:15,480 --> 00:39:19,320 Speaker 1: here's the unknown here. Uh, look, we do have a 706 00:39:19,480 --> 00:39:25,759 Speaker 1: labor disruptions, uh for for sure. And how much of 707 00:39:25,880 --> 00:39:30,920 Speaker 1: it is uh people taking earlier retirement that will not 708 00:39:31,120 --> 00:39:34,040 Speaker 1: come back into the workforce, and that is something that's 709 00:39:34,120 --> 00:39:37,080 Speaker 1: very very hard to quantify. I think once we get 710 00:39:37,120 --> 00:39:41,160 Speaker 1: through the fears of of the pandemic, that we have 711 00:39:41,320 --> 00:39:45,640 Speaker 1: schools and daycare fully reopened, uh and and some of 712 00:39:45,719 --> 00:39:49,440 Speaker 1: the government policies kind of step away and the private 713 00:39:49,480 --> 00:39:52,240 Speaker 1: sector takes over, you know, I think the labor markets 714 00:39:52,280 --> 00:39:57,320 Speaker 1: are gonna recover even uh very very well. Thanks smith Over, however, Trust, 715 00:39:57,400 --> 00:40:00,600 Speaker 1: thank you so much for your thoughts. Appreciate it. Thanks 716 00:40:00,640 --> 00:40:04,480 Speaker 1: for listening to Bloomberg Business Week. Download the podcast on iTunes, SoundCloud, 717 00:40:04,600 --> 00:40:06,759 Speaker 1: or Bloomberg dot com. And you can also listen to 718 00:40:06,800 --> 00:40:09,000 Speaker 1: our radio show at two p m. Eastern on Bloomberg 719 00:40:09,120 --> 00:40:11,920 Speaker 1: Radio or watch us on YouTube. Search to Bloomberg Global 720 00:40:12,000 --> 00:40:12,200 Speaker 1: News