WEBVTT - How Existential Risks Work 0:00:00.440 --> 0:00:03.760 Hey, everybody, Josh here Um. We wanted to include a 0:00:03.840 --> 0:00:08.200 note before this episode, which is about existential risks um 0:00:08.360 --> 0:00:11.200 threats that are big enough to actually wipe humanity out 0:00:11.200 --> 0:00:15.520 of existence. Well, we recorded this episode just before the pandemic, 0:00:15.800 --> 0:00:18.960 which explains the weird lack of mention of COVID when 0:00:18.960 --> 0:00:22.560 we're talking about viruses, and when this pandemic came along, 0:00:22.880 --> 0:00:25.759 we thought perhaps a wait and sea approach might be 0:00:25.760 --> 0:00:29.360 best before just willy nilly releasing an episode about the 0:00:29.440 --> 0:00:32.520 end of the world. So we decided to release this now, 0:00:32.680 --> 0:00:35.120 still in the thick of things, not just because the 0:00:35.120 --> 0:00:38.200 world hasn't ended, but because one of the few good 0:00:38.200 --> 0:00:40.800 things that's come out of this terrible time is the 0:00:40.840 --> 0:00:43.840 way that we've all kind of come together and given 0:00:43.880 --> 0:00:46.320 a lot of thought about how we can look out 0:00:46.360 --> 0:00:50.440 for each other. And that's exactly what thinking about existential 0:00:50.560 --> 0:00:52.919 risks is all about. So we thought there would be 0:00:52.960 --> 0:00:56.120 no better time than right now to talk about them. 0:00:56.160 --> 0:00:59.000 We hope this explains things, uh and that you realize 0:00:59.000 --> 0:01:03.400 we're not releasing the glibly in anyway. Instead, we hope 0:01:03.440 --> 0:01:06.160 that it makes you reflective about what it means to 0:01:06.240 --> 0:01:12.200 be human and why humanity is worth fighting for. Welcome 0:01:12.240 --> 0:01:14.480 to Stuff. You should know a production of My Heart 0:01:14.560 --> 0:01:23.240 Radios How Stuff Works. Hey, you, welcome to the podcast. 0:01:23.280 --> 0:01:26.360 I'm Josh Clark. And there's Charles W. Chuck Bryant over there, 0:01:26.640 --> 0:01:30.360 and there's guest producer Dave c sitting in yet again, 0:01:30.680 --> 0:01:33.679 at least the second time. I believe he's already picked 0:01:33.720 --> 0:01:36.039 up that he knows not to speak. He's nodding the 0:01:36.160 --> 0:01:40.120 custom established by Jerry Um. But yeah, he did not, 0:01:40.280 --> 0:01:42.560 didn't he? So yeah, I guess it is twice that 0:01:42.680 --> 0:01:45.479 Dave's been sitting in. What if he just heard two 0:01:45.520 --> 0:01:49.240 times from the other side of the room, You're like, 0:01:49.400 --> 0:01:51.400 didn't have the heart to tell him not to do that? Right? 0:01:52.360 --> 0:01:54.520 I think he would be Um, he would catch the 0:01:54.600 --> 0:01:58.800 drift from like the record scratching that just like materialized 0:01:58.800 --> 0:02:02.040 out of nowhere. Many people know that we have someone 0:02:02.080 --> 0:02:04.920 on permanent stand by by a record player just in 0:02:04.960 --> 0:02:07.560 case we do something like that, and that person is 0:02:07.600 --> 0:02:12.480 Tommy Chong. Hi, Tommy, do I smell bong water man? 0:02:12.680 --> 0:02:16.200 Betty breaks of it? Yeah? Probably, so, I mean, hats 0:02:16.240 --> 0:02:18.200 off to him for sticking to his bit. You know. 0:02:18.480 --> 0:02:20.640 Cheech was like, hey, hey, I want a good long 0:02:20.840 --> 0:02:23.440 spot on Nash Bridges, So alls, whatever you want me 0:02:23.480 --> 0:02:26.920 to about, Like, I'm just into gummies now, Tommy Chong 0:02:27.560 --> 0:02:32.120 like tripled down. Yeah, and least he sold the bongs, 0:02:32.160 --> 0:02:37.560 didn't he that? Uh? Pe test Beaters test beat Okay, 0:02:38.639 --> 0:02:42.840 suddenly think of how to say something like that away 0:02:42.880 --> 0:02:47.440 to um defeat urine test. Oh well, listen to you, fancy, 0:02:47.760 --> 0:02:49.840 I would say, I don't know. I know that a 0:02:49.960 --> 0:02:54.120 street guys call it pe Test Beaters, but Pete Test 0:02:54.160 --> 0:02:57.880 Beaters is a a band name about as good as say, 0:02:57.919 --> 0:03:02.919 like die your Planet. Actually I think diarrhea Planet's got 0:03:02.919 --> 0:03:06.280 it beat. But still all right, so chuck, um, we're 0:03:06.280 --> 0:03:10.399 talking today about a topic that is near and dear 0:03:10.440 --> 0:03:14.079 to my heart. Existential risks, that's right, which I don't 0:03:14.080 --> 0:03:15.960 know if you if you've gathered that or not, but 0:03:16.040 --> 0:03:21.480 I really really am into this, this topic all all around. Um. 0:03:21.520 --> 0:03:24.079 As a matter of fact, I did a temporart series 0:03:24.120 --> 0:03:26.040 on it called The End of the World with Josh Clark, 0:03:26.600 --> 0:03:30.080 available everywhere you get podcasts right now. Um, I managed 0:03:30.120 --> 0:03:32.760 to smash that down. That's kind of what this is. 0:03:32.880 --> 0:03:36.400 It's a condensed version and forever, like I wanted to 0:03:36.600 --> 0:03:40.000 just s y s k if I the topic of 0:03:40.040 --> 0:03:43.360 existential risks like do do it with you? I wanted 0:03:43.400 --> 0:03:45.360 to do it with you. This is going to be 0:03:45.600 --> 0:03:48.280 a live show at one point it was, Um, I 0:03:48.320 --> 0:03:50.560 think even before that, I was like, Hey, you want 0:03:50.600 --> 0:03:51.880 to do an episode on this. You're like, this is 0:03:51.880 --> 0:03:56.040 pretty dark stuff. We're doing it now now. I The 0:03:56.040 --> 0:03:58.000 only time I said that was when you actually sent 0:03:58.120 --> 0:03:59.960 me the document for the live show and I went, 0:04:00.360 --> 0:04:02.160 I don't know about a live version of this, So 0:04:02.200 --> 0:04:04.640 I guess I guess that must have been before the 0:04:04.720 --> 0:04:06.880 end of the world. Then, huh, this was like eight 0:04:06.960 --> 0:04:08.840 years ago. Well, I'm glad you turned down the live 0:04:08.880 --> 0:04:12.400 show because it may have lived and died there. So Um, 0:04:12.440 --> 0:04:15.120 one of the have made all those into the world 0:04:15.160 --> 0:04:18.600 big bucks right exactly, Man, I'm rolling in it. My 0:04:18.640 --> 0:04:22.840 mattress is stuffed with him. Um. So uh. And you know, 0:04:23.080 --> 0:04:27.039 bucks aren't always just the only way of qualifying or 0:04:27.120 --> 0:04:33.000 quantifying the success of something. You know, there's also Academy awards, right, oscars, 0:04:33.040 --> 0:04:38.960 and that's it, peabodies, big money or public awards ceremonies. Okay, granted, Um, 0:04:39.080 --> 0:04:40.840 the other reason I wanted to do this episode is 0:04:40.880 --> 0:04:43.680 because one of the people who was a participant in 0:04:43.800 --> 0:04:46.640 Interviewee in the End of the World with Josh Clark, 0:04:46.839 --> 0:04:50.000 a guy named Dr Toby ord Um recently published a 0:04:50.040 --> 0:04:53.680 book called The Precipice and it is like a really 0:04:53.760 --> 0:04:56.839 in depth look at existential risks and the ones we 0:04:56.920 --> 0:04:59.120 face and you know what's coming down the pike and 0:04:59.400 --> 0:05:03.000 what we can do about him and why right exactly, 0:05:03.080 --> 0:05:07.560 cheers and jeers right exactly. Um. And it's a it's 0:05:07.600 --> 0:05:09.320 a really good book and it's written just for like 0:05:09.360 --> 0:05:11.320 the average person to pick up and be like, I 0:05:11.360 --> 0:05:13.240 hadn't heard about this and then reached the end of 0:05:13.240 --> 0:05:15.599 it and say, I'm terrified, but I'm also hopeful. And 0:05:15.680 --> 0:05:17.440 that one reason I wanted to do this episode to 0:05:17.520 --> 0:05:20.040 let everybody know about Dr Ord's book or Toby's book. 0:05:20.360 --> 0:05:22.279 It's impossible to call him dr or he's just a 0:05:22.320 --> 0:05:27.039 really likable guy. Um is because he actually turned the 0:05:27.080 --> 0:05:31.680 tone of the End of the World around almost single handedly. 0:05:31.800 --> 0:05:36.559 It was really grim, remember before I interviewed him, really 0:05:36.600 --> 0:05:39.039 and and also you remember I started like listening to 0:05:39.120 --> 0:05:42.520 The Cure a lot. Um just got real dark there 0:05:42.520 --> 0:05:44.920 for a little while. Which is funny that The Cure 0:05:45.000 --> 0:05:48.680 is my conception of like really dark anyway, um, death 0:05:48.720 --> 0:05:52.480 metal guys out there laughing, right, so he but talking 0:05:52.520 --> 0:05:55.280 to him, he just kind of just steered the ship 0:05:55.320 --> 0:05:57.720 a little bit, and by the end of it, because 0:05:57.720 --> 0:05:59.400 of his influence, the End of the the World actually is 0:05:59.400 --> 0:06:02.320 a pretty hopeful well series. So my hat's off to 0:06:02.360 --> 0:06:04.719 the guy for for doing that, but also for writing 0:06:04.760 --> 0:06:09.520 this book the precipice. Hat's off, sir. So, um, we 0:06:09.520 --> 0:06:13.520 should probably kind of describe what existential risks are. Um. 0:06:13.720 --> 0:06:15.919 I know that you know in this document is described 0:06:16.360 --> 0:06:19.640 many many times. But the reasons described many many times 0:06:19.760 --> 0:06:21.599 is because there's like a lot of nuance to it. 0:06:21.680 --> 0:06:23.599 And the reason there's a lot of nuance to it 0:06:23.640 --> 0:06:26.480 is because we kind of tend to walk around thinking 0:06:26.520 --> 0:06:31.000 that we understand existential risks based on our experience with 0:06:31.040 --> 0:06:34.680 previous risks. But the problem with existential risks are they're 0:06:34.680 --> 0:06:38.200 actually new to us and they're not like other risks 0:06:38.279 --> 0:06:42.680 because they're just so big and if something happens one 0:06:42.680 --> 0:06:46.200 of these existential catastrophes but follows us, that's it. There's 0:06:46.200 --> 0:06:48.599 no second chance, there's no do over, and we're not 0:06:48.760 --> 0:06:52.600 used to risks like that. That's right. Uh, nobody is 0:06:52.640 --> 0:06:56.039 because we are all people, right, and the thought of 0:06:56.080 --> 0:07:00.680 all of human beings being gone um or at least uh, 0:07:00.880 --> 0:07:03.760 not being able to live as regular humans live and 0:07:03.839 --> 0:07:08.800 enjoy life like and not live as matrix batteries because 0:07:08.839 --> 0:07:12.880 you know, technically the matrix those are people. Yeah, but 0:07:12.960 --> 0:07:15.800 that's that's no way to live. The people in the pods, Yeah, 0:07:15.880 --> 0:07:18.040 that's what I'm saying. I wouldn't want to live that way. 0:07:18.120 --> 0:07:20.880 But that's another version of existential risk. Is not necessarily 0:07:20.880 --> 0:07:23.239 that everyone's dead, but you could become just a matrix 0:07:23.240 --> 0:07:26.640 battery and not flourish or move forward as a people, 0:07:26.840 --> 0:07:31.600 right exactly, so um. But but with existential risks in general, 0:07:31.680 --> 0:07:34.120 like that, the general idea of them is that like 0:07:34.240 --> 0:07:36.840 if you are walking along and you suddenly get hit 0:07:36.880 --> 0:07:40.600 by a car, like you no longer exist, but the 0:07:40.640 --> 0:07:45.760 rest of humanity continues on existing, uh. Correct. With existential risks, 0:07:45.840 --> 0:07:48.760 it's like the car that comes along and hits not 0:07:49.520 --> 0:07:53.040 a human but all humans. So it's a risk to 0:07:53.480 --> 0:07:57.480 humanity itself. And that's just kind of different because all 0:07:57.520 --> 0:08:01.560 of the other risks that we've ever run across, um 0:08:01.760 --> 0:08:07.000 either give us the luxury of time or proximity, meaning 0:08:07.040 --> 0:08:11.000 that we have enough time to adapt our our behavior 0:08:11.080 --> 0:08:14.840 to it, to survive it and continue on as a species. 0:08:15.440 --> 0:08:17.360 Or there's not enough of us in one place to 0:08:17.400 --> 0:08:20.800 be affected by this this UM risk that took out 0:08:20.800 --> 0:08:23.800 say one person or a billion people, Like if all 0:08:23.880 --> 0:08:28.000 of Europe went away, that is not an ex risk. No, 0:08:28.440 --> 0:08:32.400 and so people might say, um, it would be really sad, 0:08:32.520 --> 0:08:37.160 and I mean up to you know, the people alive 0:08:37.200 --> 0:08:40.760 on Earth, if they all died somehow, it would still 0:08:40.800 --> 0:08:43.960 possibly not be an existential risk because that one percent 0:08:44.040 --> 0:08:49.240 living could conceivably rebuild civilization. That's right. We're talking about 0:08:49.360 --> 0:08:53.760 giving the world back to mother Nature and just seeing 0:08:53.840 --> 0:08:57.280 what happens. Do you remember that UM series. I think 0:08:57.320 --> 0:09:00.000 it was a book to start the Earth without us 0:09:00.440 --> 0:09:03.320 m oh so, I think I know that there was 0:09:03.360 --> 0:09:04.920 a big deal when it came out, and then they 0:09:04.960 --> 0:09:07.200 made like a maybe a Science channel or that GEO 0:09:07.320 --> 0:09:10.880 series about it where this guy describes like how our 0:09:10.960 --> 0:09:14.240 infrastructure will start to crumble, like if humans just vanished tomorrow, 0:09:15.000 --> 0:09:18.640 how the Earth would reclaim, Nature would reclaim everything we've 0:09:18.679 --> 0:09:21.800 done and undo you know, after after a month, after 0:09:21.880 --> 0:09:24.199 a year, after ten years. I've heard of that it's 0:09:24.240 --> 0:09:27.920 really cool stuff. Yeah, there's a Bonnie Prince. Billy my 0:09:28.520 --> 0:09:32.360 idol has a song called It's Far from Over, and 0:09:32.360 --> 0:09:36.160 that's sort of a Bonnie principally look at the fact that, hey, 0:09:36.200 --> 0:09:39.920 even if all humans leave, it's not over. Yeah, like 0:09:40.000 --> 0:09:42.000 new animals are gonna new creatures are going to be born, 0:09:42.520 --> 0:09:45.160 the earth continues. Yeah. Uh. And he also has a 0:09:45.200 --> 0:09:47.560 line though about like you, but you better teacher kids 0:09:47.559 --> 0:09:50.439 a swim. That's a great line. Yeah, it's good stuff. 0:09:50.480 --> 0:09:52.400 They ever tell you. I saw that guy do karaoke 0:09:52.640 --> 0:09:55.920 with his wife once. Oh really, you know our friend 0:09:55.960 --> 0:10:00.560 Toby his wedding. Yeah, I would have not been able 0:10:00.600 --> 0:10:02.440 to be at that wedding because you would have just 0:10:02.480 --> 0:10:05.200 been such a fanboy. I don't know what I would do. 0:10:05.240 --> 0:10:07.560 I would, I would. It would have ruined my time, 0:10:08.760 --> 0:10:10.920 They really would, because I would second guess everything I 0:10:10.960 --> 0:10:13.200 did about talk. I mean I even talked to the 0:10:13.200 --> 0:10:17.640 guy once backstage, and that ruined my day. It really did, 0:10:17.640 --> 0:10:19.520 because you spent the rest of the time just thinking 0:10:19.559 --> 0:10:22.600 about how stuff. It was actually fine. He was a 0:10:22.679 --> 0:10:25.320 very very very nice guy, and we talked about athens 0:10:25.360 --> 0:10:27.240 and stuff. But that's who I just went to see 0:10:27.440 --> 0:10:30.400 in d C Philly in New York. Nice when a 0:10:30.440 --> 0:10:32.880 little follow him around the tour for a few days, 0:10:33.000 --> 0:10:35.760 did he sing that song about the world going on 0:10:35.760 --> 0:10:39.319 on or life going on? He did so. Um, so 0:10:39.400 --> 0:10:42.080 let's just cover a couple of things that we like 0:10:42.160 --> 0:10:45.720 people might think our existential risk that actually aren't. Okay. Yeah, 0:10:45.760 --> 0:10:48.720 I mean I think a lot of people might think, um, sure, 0:10:48.920 --> 0:10:54.640 some global pandemic that could wipe out humanity. There could 0:10:54.840 --> 0:10:57.080 very well be a global pandemic that could kill a 0:10:57.080 --> 0:10:59.959 lot of people, but it's probably not going to kill 0:11:00.000 --> 0:11:02.960 every living human, right. It would be a catastrophe, sure, 0:11:03.120 --> 0:11:05.520 but not an next risk. Yeah, I mean, because humans 0:11:05.720 --> 0:11:09.120 have anybodies that we develop, and so people who survive 0:11:09.400 --> 0:11:12.600 that flu have anybodies that they pass on the next generation, 0:11:12.640 --> 0:11:15.480 and so that that disease kind of dies out before 0:11:15.480 --> 0:11:17.839 it kills everybody off, and the preppers at the very 0:11:17.920 --> 0:11:21.600 least they'll be fine, would be safe. Um, what about 0:11:22.200 --> 0:11:25.480 calamities like a mud slide or something like that. You 0:11:25.480 --> 0:11:27.880 can't mud slide the earth. You can't. And that's a 0:11:27.880 --> 0:11:29.760 really good point. This is what I figured out in 0:11:29.840 --> 0:11:32.400 researching this, after doing the End of the World, after 0:11:32.840 --> 0:11:37.320 talking all these people. It took researching this article for 0:11:37.360 --> 0:11:40.400 me to figure this out. That it's time and proximity 0:11:40.559 --> 0:11:42.760 that are the two things that we used to survive, 0:11:42.800 --> 0:11:45.520 and that if you take away time and proximity, we're 0:11:45.559 --> 0:11:48.040 in trouble. And so mud slides are a really good 0:11:48.200 --> 0:11:51.800 example of proximity, where a mudslide can come down a 0:11:51.800 --> 0:11:55.160 mountain and take out an entire village of people. Yes, 0:11:55.280 --> 0:11:57.480 and it's really sad and really scary to think of. 0:11:57.520 --> 0:11:59.640 I mean we saw it with our own eyes. We 0:12:00.040 --> 0:12:02.800 stood in a field that was now what like eight 0:12:02.880 --> 0:12:04.600 or nine feet higher than it used to be. Yeah, 0:12:04.600 --> 0:12:06.559 and you could see the trek. This is in Guatemala. 0:12:06.559 --> 0:12:08.280 When we went down to visit our friends at co 0:12:08.480 --> 0:12:12.599 ed Um, there was like the trees were much sparser, 0:12:12.640 --> 0:12:14.480 you could see the track of the mundon. They were like, 0:12:14.559 --> 0:12:17.720 the people are still down there. This is It was 0:12:17.720 --> 0:12:21.040 a horrible tragedy and it happened in a matter of seconds. 0:12:21.040 --> 0:12:23.360 It just wiped out a village. But we all don't 0:12:23.400 --> 0:12:26.080 live under one mountain, and so if a bunch of 0:12:26.120 --> 0:12:28.480 people are taken out, the rest of us still go on. 0:12:28.640 --> 0:12:31.760 So there's the time and there's a proximity yeah, I 0:12:31.800 --> 0:12:34.320 think a lot of people in the eighties might have thought, 0:12:34.880 --> 0:12:37.199 because of movies like war games and movies like The 0:12:37.280 --> 0:12:40.319 Day after that global thermon nuclear war would be an 0:12:40.320 --> 0:12:43.719 ex risk and as bad as that would be, it 0:12:43.720 --> 0:12:47.480 wouldn't kill every single human being. Uh no, No, they 0:12:47.520 --> 0:12:49.880 don't think so they started out thinking this. Like, as 0:12:49.880 --> 0:12:53.240 a matter of fact, nuclear war was the first one 0:12:53.280 --> 0:12:56.240 of the first things that we identify as a possible 0:12:56.240 --> 0:12:59.000 existential risk. And if you kind of talk about the 0:12:59.040 --> 0:13:02.280 history of the field for the first like several decades, 0:13:02.360 --> 0:13:06.439 that was like the focus, the entire focus of existential risks. 0:13:06.480 --> 0:13:10.400 Like Bertrand Russell and Einstein wrote a manifesto about how 0:13:10.840 --> 0:13:12.920 we really need to be careful with these nukes because 0:13:12.920 --> 0:13:16.080 we're gonna wipe ourselves out. Carl Sagan, you remember our 0:13:16.640 --> 0:13:21.600 amazing Nuclear Winner episode that was from you know, studying 0:13:21.640 --> 0:13:24.520 existential risks. And then in the nineties a guy named 0:13:24.559 --> 0:13:28.000 John Leslie came along and said, Hey, there's way more 0:13:28.040 --> 0:13:30.640 than just nuclear war that we could wipe ourselves out with. 0:13:30.880 --> 0:13:32.440 And some of it is taking the form of this 0:13:32.520 --> 0:13:35.400 technology that's coming down the pike. And that was taken 0:13:35.480 --> 0:13:37.719 up by one of my personal hero is a guy 0:13:37.800 --> 0:13:42.079 named Nick Bostrom. Yeah, he's a philosopher out of Oxford, 0:13:42.920 --> 0:13:45.320 and he is one of the founders of this field. 0:13:45.880 --> 0:13:48.280 And he's the one that said, are one of the 0:13:48.280 --> 0:13:51.920 ones that said, you know, there's a lot of potential 0:13:51.960 --> 0:13:57.120 existential existential risks and nuclear wars peanuts bring it on. 0:13:58.640 --> 0:14:01.000 But and I know, I don't know of boss from 0:14:01.040 --> 0:14:04.240 specifically believes they probably does that that there we would 0:14:04.240 --> 0:14:07.360 be able to recover from a nuclear war. That's the idea, 0:14:07.400 --> 0:14:11.160 as you rebuild as a society after whatever zombie apocalypse, 0:14:11.240 --> 0:14:13.480 ri clear war happened. Yeah, and again say it killed 0:14:13.480 --> 0:14:17.520 off people. To us, that would seem like an unimaginable 0:14:17.520 --> 0:14:20.080 tragedy because we lived through it. But if you zoom 0:14:20.120 --> 0:14:23.320 back out and look at the lifespan of humanity, not 0:14:23.440 --> 0:14:26.160 just the humans life today, but all of humanity, like 0:14:26.160 --> 0:14:29.640 it would be a very horrible period in human history, 0:14:29.680 --> 0:14:34.280 but one we could rebuild from oversay ten thousand years 0:14:34.720 --> 0:14:36.760 to get back to the point where we were before 0:14:36.800 --> 0:14:40.280 the nuclear war. And so ultimately it's probably not an 0:14:40.360 --> 0:14:43.160 existential risk. Yeah, it's tough. This is a tough topic 0:14:43.240 --> 0:14:45.360 for people because I think people have a hard time 0:14:45.360 --> 0:14:48.680 with that long of a view of things. And then 0:14:48.680 --> 0:14:53.360 whenever you hear uh the big Matt comparisons of you know, 0:14:53.440 --> 0:14:55.520 how long people have been around and how old the 0:14:55.520 --> 0:14:57.680 earth is and that stuff, it kind of hits home. 0:14:57.720 --> 0:15:00.600 But it's stuff for people living that live you eighty 0:15:00.680 --> 0:15:05.280 years to think about, Well, ten thousand years will be fine, 0:15:05.640 --> 0:15:08.280 and even like, um, you mean, when I was researching this, 0:15:08.360 --> 0:15:09.960 she brought this up a lot, like where do we 0:15:10.000 --> 0:15:13.440 stop caring about people that our descendants? You know, we 0:15:13.480 --> 0:15:16.600 care about our children or our grandchildren. That's about I 0:15:16.680 --> 0:15:18.920 just care about my daughter, That's about it. That's where 0:15:18.920 --> 0:15:22.320 it is with the grandchildren. You have grandchildren yet? Yeah, 0:15:22.360 --> 0:15:24.720 but wait till they come along. Everything I've ever heard 0:15:24.760 --> 0:15:27.320 is that being a grandparents even better than being a parent. 0:15:28.360 --> 0:15:32.320 And I know some grandparents. Okay, let's say I'm not 0:15:32.480 --> 0:15:35.000 dead before my daughter eventually has a kid, if she 0:15:35.240 --> 0:15:39.320 wants to, I would care about that grandchild. But after that, 0:15:40.280 --> 0:15:43.960 forget it. Yeah, my kids, kids, kids, who cares granded 0:15:44.080 --> 0:15:47.120 that's about That's about where it would like, I care 0:15:47.160 --> 0:15:49.600 about people in humanity as a whole. I think that's 0:15:49.600 --> 0:15:52.560 what you gotta do. You can't think about like your 0:15:52.880 --> 0:15:58.240 your eventual ancestors think you just got to think about people, right, Yeah, 0:15:58.280 --> 0:16:00.920 that's really help people you don't know. Now, it's kind 0:16:00.920 --> 0:16:04.560 of requisite to start caring about existential risks, to start 0:16:04.640 --> 0:16:07.880 thinking about people, not just well let's talk about it. 0:16:07.920 --> 0:16:10.160 So Toby Ord made a really good point in his 0:16:10.200 --> 0:16:13.840 book The Precipice, right that you care about people on 0:16:13.920 --> 0:16:16.160 the other side of the world that you've never met. Yeah, 0:16:16.160 --> 0:16:19.720 that's what I'm saying, Like that happens every day, right, 0:16:19.800 --> 0:16:22.640 So what's the difference between people who live on the 0:16:22.640 --> 0:16:24.320 other side of the world that you will never meet 0:16:24.680 --> 0:16:26.760 and people who live in a different time that you 0:16:26.800 --> 0:16:29.360 will never meet. Why would you care any less about 0:16:29.400 --> 0:16:32.680 these people human beings that you'll never meet, whether they 0:16:32.760 --> 0:16:34.000 live on the other side of the world at some 0:16:34.160 --> 0:16:36.040 time or in the same place you do, but at 0:16:36.040 --> 0:16:38.840 a different time. I think a few I mean I'm 0:16:38.840 --> 0:16:40.760 not speaking for me, but I think if I were 0:16:40.760 --> 0:16:42.720 to step inside the brain of someone who thinks that, 0:16:43.600 --> 0:16:47.160 they would think like a it's a little bit of 0:16:47.240 --> 0:16:51.400 a self Um, it's a bit of an ego thing 0:16:51.960 --> 0:16:54.200 because you know, like, oh, I'm helping someone else, so 0:16:54.240 --> 0:16:57.120 that does something for you in the moment, Like someone 0:16:57.200 --> 0:16:58.480 right now on the other side of the world that 0:16:58.560 --> 0:17:02.440 maybe I've sponsored is doing good because of me. And 0:17:02.440 --> 0:17:05.000 I had a little kick out of it from Sally Struthers. 0:17:05.160 --> 0:17:09.520 Yeah that does something. It helps he help with food 0:17:09.520 --> 0:17:12.720 on her plate. She still with us, I think so. 0:17:13.000 --> 0:17:15.000 I think so too. But I feel really bad if 0:17:15.040 --> 0:17:18.119 I certainly haven't heard any news of her death, people 0:17:18.160 --> 0:17:20.320 would talk about that and the record scratch would have 0:17:20.320 --> 0:17:24.080 just happened. Uh. So I think that is something too. 0:17:24.119 --> 0:17:26.960 And I think there are also sort of a certain 0:17:27.000 --> 0:17:31.600 amount of people that are just um that just believe 0:17:31.640 --> 0:17:36.119 you're worm dirt. There is no benefit to the afterlife 0:17:36.200 --> 0:17:39.440 as far as good deeds and things, so like once 0:17:39.440 --> 0:17:42.080 you're gone, it's just who cares because it doesn't matter. 0:17:42.680 --> 0:17:45.320 There's no consciousness. Yeah, well that's I mean, if you 0:17:45.520 --> 0:17:47.639 if you were at all like piqued by that stuff, 0:17:47.680 --> 0:17:50.760 I would say, definitely read the precipice because like one 0:17:50.800 --> 0:17:52.479 of the best things that Toby does, and he does 0:17:52.480 --> 0:17:56.600 a lot of stuff really well, is describe why it matters, 0:17:56.640 --> 0:17:59.400 because I mean, that's a philosopher after all. Um, so 0:17:59.440 --> 0:18:01.359 he says like this is why it matters, Like not 0:18:01.440 --> 0:18:04.640 only does it matter because you're you're keeping things going 0:18:04.680 --> 0:18:08.080 for the future generation, you're also continuing on with the 0:18:08.080 --> 0:18:11.239 previous generation built like who who are you to just 0:18:11.280 --> 0:18:13.720 be like, oh, were you just gonna drop the ball? No? 0:18:13.800 --> 0:18:15.919 I agree that's a very self centered way to look 0:18:15.960 --> 0:18:17.800 at things totally. But I think you're right. I think 0:18:17.840 --> 0:18:19.080 there are a lot of people who look at it 0:18:19.160 --> 0:18:21.600 that way. So you want to take a break, Yeah, 0:18:21.680 --> 0:18:23.880 we can take a break now, and maybe we can 0:18:23.920 --> 0:18:28.200 dive into Mr Bostrom's or doctor I imagine Bostroms U 0:18:28.640 --> 0:18:32.760 Five different types? Are there? Five? No, there's just a few. Okay, 0:18:32.800 --> 0:18:35.119 a few different types of existential we can make up 0:18:35.119 --> 0:19:06.960 a couple of the addam net. Let's not stop, all right, Chuck. So, uh, 0:19:07.960 --> 0:19:10.920 one of the things you said earlier is that existential risk, 0:19:11.000 --> 0:19:14.400 the way we think of them typically is um that 0:19:15.040 --> 0:19:18.280 something happens and humanity has wiped out and we all 0:19:18.320 --> 0:19:21.200 die and there's no more humans forever and ever. That's 0:19:21.240 --> 0:19:24.439 an existential risk. That's one kind, really, and that's the 0:19:24.440 --> 0:19:28.720 easiest one to grasp with, which is extinction. Yeah, and 0:19:28.760 --> 0:19:31.480 that kind of speaks for itself. Just like dinosaurs are 0:19:31.480 --> 0:19:35.359 no longer here, that would be us, Yes, and I 0:19:35.400 --> 0:19:37.240 think that's one of those other things too. It's kind 0:19:37.280 --> 0:19:39.800 of like how people walk around like, yeah, I know 0:19:39.840 --> 0:19:42.040 I'm going to die someday. But if you sat them 0:19:42.040 --> 0:19:45.040 down and you were like, do you really understand that 0:19:45.080 --> 0:19:48.439 you're going to die someday? That they might start to 0:19:48.480 --> 0:19:50.960 panic a little bit, you know, and they realize I 0:19:51.040 --> 0:19:53.159 haven't actually confronted that, I just know that I'm going 0:19:53.240 --> 0:19:56.399 to die. Or if you knew the date, that'd be weird. 0:19:56.480 --> 0:19:58.800 It would be like a Justin Timberlake movie. Would that 0:19:58.880 --> 0:20:04.160 make things better? Or we're for humanity? I would say better? Probably, right. 0:20:04.200 --> 0:20:05.840 I think it'd be a mixed bag. I think some 0:20:05.920 --> 0:20:08.399 people would be able to do nothing but focus on 0:20:08.440 --> 0:20:11.199 that and think about all the time they're wasting, and 0:20:11.200 --> 0:20:13.639 other people would be like, I'm gonna make the absolute 0:20:13.640 --> 0:20:15.320 most out of this. Well, I guess there are a 0:20:15.359 --> 0:20:17.440 couple of ways you can go, and it probably depends 0:20:17.480 --> 0:20:19.880 on when your data is. If if you found out 0:20:19.880 --> 0:20:23.000 your date was a ripe old age, you might be like, well, 0:20:23.040 --> 0:20:24.400 I'm just going to try and lead the best life 0:20:24.400 --> 0:20:27.800 I can. That's great. If you find out you live 0:20:27.880 --> 0:20:32.320 fast and die hard at seven die harder, uh, you 0:20:32.400 --> 0:20:34.760 might die harder. You might be like screw it, or 0:20:34.880 --> 0:20:38.520 you might really ramp up your good works. It depends 0:20:38.560 --> 0:20:40.600 what kind of person you are. Probably and more and 0:20:40.640 --> 0:20:42.719 more I'm realizing is it depends on how you were 0:20:42.800 --> 0:20:47.000 raised to. You know, like we we definitely are responsible 0:20:47.040 --> 0:20:52.960 for carrying on ourselves as adults. Like you can't just say, well, 0:20:53.000 --> 0:20:55.000 I wasn't raised very well or I was raised this way, 0:20:55.040 --> 0:20:57.520 so whatever, Like you have a responsibility for yourself and 0:20:57.560 --> 0:20:59.440 who you are as an adult. Sure, but I really 0:20:59.440 --> 0:21:02.639 feel like the way that you're raised to really sets 0:21:02.680 --> 0:21:05.359 the stage and put you on a path that's that 0:21:05.400 --> 0:21:07.399 can be difficult to get off of because it's so 0:21:07.440 --> 0:21:10.040 hard to see for sure, you know, because that's just 0:21:10.119 --> 0:21:12.840 normal to you because that's what your family was. Yeah, 0:21:12.920 --> 0:21:16.119 that's a good point. So anyway, extinction is just one 0:21:16.200 --> 0:21:19.040 of the ways one of the types of existential risks 0:21:19.080 --> 0:21:22.880 that we face, a bad one. Permanent stagnation is another one, 0:21:23.000 --> 0:21:26.840 and that's the one we kind of mentioned. Um dance 0:21:26.880 --> 0:21:29.400 around a little bit, and that's like some people are around. 0:21:29.840 --> 0:21:34.520 Not every human died and whatever happened, but um, whatever 0:21:34.680 --> 0:21:39.320 is left is not enough to either repopulate the world 0:21:39.520 --> 0:21:43.040 or to progress humanity in any meaningful way to rebuild 0:21:43.040 --> 0:21:45.760 civilization back to where it was, and it would be 0:21:45.800 --> 0:21:49.119 that way permanently, which is kind of in itself tough 0:21:49.720 --> 0:21:53.160