WEBVTT - Vanguard Dipping a Toe into PE

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser and I'm

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<v Speaker 1>Jason Kelly. We're here every day bringing you the latest

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<v Speaker 1>listen to our radio show weekdays at two pm Eastern

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<v Speaker 1>only on Bloomberg Radio. We're gonna roll around, all right,

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<v Speaker 1>So let's talk a little Tesla. We do it often.

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<v Speaker 1>We're also very fortunate that we get to do it

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<v Speaker 1>pretty often with Dana Hall. She follows the company so closely,

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<v Speaker 1>and the headline on the story today that she wrote

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<v Speaker 1>with Gabby Coppola really sums it up. Tesla Capital Raise

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<v Speaker 1>keeps fourteen billion dollar virtuous circle rolling. It certainly does.

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<v Speaker 1>And Dana, one of the things that struck me, and

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<v Speaker 1>you just nail it right there at the top of

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<v Speaker 1>your story is normally, in this sort of situation, you

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<v Speaker 1>would look at a company saying, oh, we gotta go

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<v Speaker 1>get more money. As a little bit of a problem,

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<v Speaker 1>we're diluting shareholders. That's a little bit of a problem.

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<v Speaker 1>And yet, and yet this is Tesla. Tesla does not

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<v Speaker 1>go the way that people normally expect. Help us understand

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<v Speaker 1>the context here, Yeah, I mean, I think what you're

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<v Speaker 1>seeing now is that, you know, it's always about the future,

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<v Speaker 1>right Elon Musk is always selling this vision of the future.

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<v Speaker 1>And now that they seem to have mastered you know,

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<v Speaker 1>the past challenges of actually getting the Model three out

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<v Speaker 1>the door, the share price is really high. You know,

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<v Speaker 1>the idea of them going out and getting money so

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<v Speaker 1>that they can do things like build out this plant

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<v Speaker 1>in Berlin or perhaps another plant in Texas seems more doable.

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<v Speaker 1>So people are more than willing to kind of fund

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<v Speaker 1>the vision of the future, and the banks get fees,

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<v Speaker 1>and you know, everyone sort of wins out. Dan, I'm

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<v Speaker 1>also wondering if Gene Munster puts this correctly, as you

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<v Speaker 1>right in your story where you say you know Elong

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<v Speaker 1>had a shirt investors, he didn't plan to r capital.

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<v Speaker 1>His backpeddaling is a criticism, but frankly, the state of

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<v Speaker 1>the balance sheet is a bigger criticism. So perhaps this

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<v Speaker 1>is scene is a good thing because it could shore

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<v Speaker 1>up the balance sheet. Yeah, I mean, and some and

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<v Speaker 1>some analysts like David Whiston and morning Star, they just

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<v Speaker 1>wish that Tesla would go out and raise like five

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<v Speaker 1>billion dollars and be done with it, like and just

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<v Speaker 1>raise a ton of money and then and and be said,

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<v Speaker 1>instead of having to go back to the market sort

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<v Speaker 1>of year after year. But it is kind of funny,

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<v Speaker 1>how you know, just on their earnings called two weeks ago,

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<v Speaker 1>Musk was asked very specifically, do you have any plans

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<v Speaker 1>to do a raise? And he's like no, And then

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<v Speaker 1>you know, two weeks two weeks later, here we are.

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<v Speaker 1>This is the second time that he's done that. Actually,

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<v Speaker 1>so you know, people people are a little frustrated that,

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<v Speaker 1>you know that he says one thing is and then

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<v Speaker 1>they do the other. But from an investor perspective, having

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<v Speaker 1>money on hand is always a good thing. And so Dana,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, this is also a good moment to ask

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<v Speaker 1>you about sort of the state of Musk. You know,

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<v Speaker 1>we have a fairly good sense of the state of Tesla.

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<v Speaker 1>What do you sort of draw conclusion wise from looking

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<v Speaker 1>at the company right now? Looking at the decision making

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<v Speaker 1>and especially this amazing run where is sort of Elon's

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<v Speaker 1>mind as much as anybody can understand it outside of

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<v Speaker 1>his own head. Well, it's not like I'm talking to,

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<v Speaker 1>I'm talking against from the guy every day. I don't know,

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<v Speaker 1>I have not like interacted with him directly recently, but

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<v Speaker 1>you know, I think that this is a guy whose

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<v Speaker 1>entire career and much of the kind of mystique in

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<v Speaker 1>persona around him is built around him proving doubters wrong.

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<v Speaker 1>And so like the classic example is with SpaceX, they were,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, for for months they tried to like land

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<v Speaker 1>this rocket on a drone ship. No one thought they

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<v Speaker 1>were ever going to be able to pull it off,

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<v Speaker 1>and now they've not only have they done it several times,

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<v Speaker 1>but it's kind of become old hat like most you know,

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<v Speaker 1>we don't even cover the drone ship landings anymore. And

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<v Speaker 1>with Tesla, like you know, the Model three, everyone questioned

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<v Speaker 1>what the demand would be like. When they started building

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<v Speaker 1>the factory in China, there were a lot of skeptics

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<v Speaker 1>who said that this mud pit would never turn into

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<v Speaker 1>a factory. And now like here they are like building

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<v Speaker 1>cars in China, and so I think he feels probably emboldened. Um, certainly. Um.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, he has a very long kind of time

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<v Speaker 1>horizon and so people always ding him for being laid

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<v Speaker 1>on his promises, but he ultimately does tend to deliver

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<v Speaker 1>on them, Like, maybe not in the time frame that

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<v Speaker 1>he originally anticipated, but you know, you look around at

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<v Speaker 1>the at the competitive landscape. You know, no other rocket

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<v Speaker 1>company is landing rockets quite in the way that SpaceX is.

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<v Speaker 1>No other automaker is selling electric vehicles and the volumes

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<v Speaker 1>that Tesla is. And it's like a new decade. They've

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<v Speaker 1>had two quarters of back to back, back to back profits. Um,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, they just went out to the market and

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<v Speaker 1>raised another tree billion. I mean, I think he's feeling

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<v Speaker 1>pretty good about things right now, Dan, I'm doing my

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<v Speaker 1>Elon Musk dance right now for our YouTube video, all right, Dan.

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<v Speaker 1>On a more serious note, Elon Musk and Tesla have

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<v Speaker 1>been criticized for the lack of investment in R and

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<v Speaker 1>D and Capex last year, and of course then they've

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<v Speaker 1>got a big profitability number, but some of the concerns, Now,

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<v Speaker 1>if you come out with a three and a half

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<v Speaker 1>billion dollar Capex budget, can you still be profitable on

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<v Speaker 1>that number. What are you hearing? Well, I think I

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<v Speaker 1>think that I think it'll be really interesting to see

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<v Speaker 1>what the first quarter is, which they've sort of hinted

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<v Speaker 1>at will is likely going to be soft because of

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<v Speaker 1>seasonality and the and the fallout from the coronavirus. But

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<v Speaker 1>you know, I mean, that's that's one of the things

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<v Speaker 1>that Musk has gone back and forth on. They've said

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<v Speaker 1>they'll be seasonally, they've said that they'll be sustainably profitable,

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<v Speaker 1>and then they're like, unless we're investing in growth, but

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<v Speaker 1>they're always investing in growth, So our investors willing to

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<v Speaker 1>kind of take you know, I mean, I guess the

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<v Speaker 1>question is what do investors want. Do they want profitability

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<v Speaker 1>every quarter or do they want the company and really

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<v Speaker 1>kind of come and dominate. And I think some investors

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<v Speaker 1>are willing to sacrifice short term profits if it means

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<v Speaker 1>long term you know, sort of market dominance. All right,

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<v Speaker 1>Dana Hall, we really appreciate it. Tech reporter looking after

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<v Speaker 1>all things Tesla, all things that Elon must that is,

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<v Speaker 1>as we joked yesterday yesterday Taylor like eight full time jobs.

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<v Speaker 1>All right. She joined us on the phone from San

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<v Speaker 1>Francisco my whole patient and I know, all right, well,

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<v Speaker 1>there are a lot of opportunities for songs leading into

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<v Speaker 1>this segment. It also is a story in a discussion,

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<v Speaker 1>and it helps solve a little bit of a mystery

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<v Speaker 1>that's been going on over at Goldman, which is where

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<v Speaker 1>all these guys going, a lot of big tech guys leaving,

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<v Speaker 1>and at least one has landed, and he's landed in

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<v Speaker 1>the marijuana business. Shrina Rajan here with me in New

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<v Speaker 1>York City finance reporter looking after all things Goldman for

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<v Speaker 1>us and much more across Wall Street. Uh so, tell

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<v Speaker 1>us about Mike bum Well, high frequency training experted Goldman

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<v Speaker 1>is ditching his prestigious partnership role to go and join

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<v Speaker 1>a company that's going to open a bunch of weed

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<v Speaker 1>dispensaries across the country. You missed an obvious opportunity to

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<v Speaker 1>make a high frequency joke, but I'm gonna let that slide.

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<v Speaker 1>Were you surprised by this move? Oh my god, Taylor,

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<v Speaker 1>no offense. But I really miss Carol because if she

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<v Speaker 1>was here, the amount of serious irols people, so many irols,

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<v Speaker 1>so many irols. I'm I'm I roll Lane Jason just

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<v Speaker 1>can't see me because I'm not with them in person.

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<v Speaker 1>Luckily all of our YouTube viewers can see it. I

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<v Speaker 1>just have to be the poor guest I can I know,

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<v Speaker 1>I know, you're so nice. No, but do your question, Jason.

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<v Speaker 1>It's instructive in many ways, right, of course, when people

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<v Speaker 1>leave firms, why they choose to do it When they

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<v Speaker 1>do it, there are a variety of different factors, family,

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<v Speaker 1>lack of interest in the role, new opportunities. But still,

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<v Speaker 1>when you decided to leave you a perch, as you know,

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<v Speaker 1>a partner at Goldman Sex their highest title, one of

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<v Speaker 1>Walt Street's foremost investment banks, and decided to take a

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<v Speaker 1>different opportunity. In this case they start up in the

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<v Speaker 1>marijuana space. It just it gives you a sense of

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<v Speaker 1>where he thinks the all opportunity lies, and perhaps also

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<v Speaker 1>indicative of the fact that it wasn't entirely fully committed

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<v Speaker 1>to what he was doing at Goldman because he did

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<v Speaker 1>have a weighty task. He did win approval and a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of funds to make a bunch of highers to

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<v Speaker 1>make a big push to overhaul the electronic trading systems,

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<v Speaker 1>had to convince senior management a number of other people

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<v Speaker 1>to be able to get those projects rolling, and for

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<v Speaker 1>him to be leaving a few months after that. It

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<v Speaker 1>was a bit of a surprise when we heard about it.

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<v Speaker 1>And it seems that he's decided to go out there

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<v Speaker 1>and pair up with some of his ex colleagues from

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<v Speaker 1>a previous firm to join the startup venture three. I'm

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<v Speaker 1>curious to get your thoughts about what's going on at

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<v Speaker 1>Goldman more generally. You originally never really heard a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of stories about people leaving. It's so hard to get

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<v Speaker 1>into that. Once you're Derrick Goldman, you are really excited

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<v Speaker 1>to be there and to work your way up. We've seen, though,

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of departures recently, especially from the top ranks.

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<v Speaker 1>Is there a lack of vote of confidence in Goldman

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<v Speaker 1>or is there just a bigger vote of confidence somewhere else.

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<v Speaker 1>That's a tough question, Taylor, because and we had this

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<v Speaker 1>discussion yesterday when we were thinking about all the troubles

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<v Speaker 1>at government and all the people leaving. When we go

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<v Speaker 1>back a year ago, the January February of nine, again

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<v Speaker 1>we saw a lot of departures. We were able to

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<v Speaker 1>explain away a lot of that saying, hey, whenever there's

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<v Speaker 1>a new management. In this case, David Solomon took over

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<v Speaker 1>the role of CEO and chairman from Lloyd Blankfind you

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<v Speaker 1>expect to change with the Guard. You expect a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of people aligned with Lloyd or the old Guard to

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<v Speaker 1>be leaving. And the new guy comes in and installed

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of his people at various roles, and in

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<v Speaker 1>an ambitious, competitive place like Goldman, you will see a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of churn. The difficult part here, the troubling part

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<v Speaker 1>here is a year later, fifteen months in his tenure,

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<v Speaker 1>we're still talking about this time of the year and

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<v Speaker 1>the kind of high profile departures we're seeing, which is

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<v Speaker 1>which has got a lot of tongues wagging across Wall

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<v Speaker 1>Street for sure, and the competitors are paying attention. You

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<v Speaker 1>can be guaranteed about that. And somebody else leaving and

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<v Speaker 1>and you the other other names that are we included

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<v Speaker 1>in the story. Couldn't play it higher Bi because I

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<v Speaker 1>was just so much interested in giving all the details

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<v Speaker 1>on the marijuana startup. Otherwise Jason would have killed us.

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<v Speaker 1>But yes, Jeff Winner joined Goldman two years ago after

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<v Speaker 1>having senior engineering roles in places like Stripe and Uber Silicon,

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<v Speaker 1>Valley name. He was supposed to build out this big

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<v Speaker 1>San Francisco office for Goldman uh and he's gone in

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<v Speaker 1>onto two years and it's it's funny when when when

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<v Speaker 1>we sort of look back at the old clips and

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<v Speaker 1>the interviews we did with him at the time of

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<v Speaker 1>his joining. He talked about how there's still a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of stuff in us in this place, but the bank

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<v Speaker 1>is working to get rid of it. He talked about

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<v Speaker 1>free flowing kombucha. Unfortunately, before he could get a free

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<v Speaker 1>full of kombucha, he's decided he's had enough. All right, Well,

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<v Speaker 1>it's a good story. Thank you for being a good sport.

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<v Speaker 1>As I make all my terrible, terrible marijuana punts here,

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<v Speaker 1>it's a Friday afternoon, it's been a long week, and

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<v Speaker 1>you know, it's just too good. It's just too easy.

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<v Speaker 1>It's sitting right there, Shri Nadaraja and always doing such

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<v Speaker 1>a great job with the comings and goings at Goldman,

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<v Speaker 1>Sachs and Codman Arture Partner. Ditching a pursuit of Quantz

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<v Speaker 1>for a marijuana start up is a really nice story

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<v Speaker 1>in one of the most read on the Bluebird. And

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<v Speaker 1>what is it that hasn't done as a puzzle in song. Alright,

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<v Speaker 1>so when it comes to Valentine's Day gifts, maybe this

0:11:20.040 --> 0:11:24.240
<v Speaker 1>isn't the one you want, unless you what you're Valentine

0:11:24.280 --> 0:11:28.360
<v Speaker 1>to be both ignoring you and maybe really really mad

0:11:28.400 --> 0:11:31.160
<v Speaker 1>at you. It's such a great story. We're talking about

0:11:31.440 --> 0:11:36.960
<v Speaker 1>stave puzzles, where the torture is the point. Devin Leonard

0:11:37.240 --> 0:11:40.360
<v Speaker 1>wrote this story quite an assignment he got for Bluebird

0:11:40.440 --> 0:11:43.080
<v Speaker 1>Business Week. As I joked earlier, Devon, you know, usually

0:11:43.120 --> 0:11:46.800
<v Speaker 1>you're doing these deep dive investigations you're telling us about

0:11:46.800 --> 0:11:51.040
<v Speaker 1>like McK mulvaney and Steve mcnuchin and folks like that.

0:11:51.080 --> 0:11:54.560
<v Speaker 1>But here we are talking to you about puzzles. So

0:11:54.960 --> 0:11:57.319
<v Speaker 1>why what's going on here? I don't know. This is

0:11:57.360 --> 0:11:59.920
<v Speaker 1>a really weird one. And I mean, this is a

0:12:00.000 --> 0:12:02.160
<v Speaker 1>company basically until recently was run by a guy who

0:12:02.200 --> 0:12:07.000
<v Speaker 1>described himself as its chief tormentor. It's customers they all

0:12:07.040 --> 0:12:10.559
<v Speaker 1>basically say their addicts, and I mean to these weird games,

0:12:10.559 --> 0:12:12.760
<v Speaker 1>some of which the company says are are created by

0:12:12.920 --> 0:12:15.640
<v Speaker 1>you know, a sadist. So I mean, this is not

0:12:15.679 --> 0:12:17.080
<v Speaker 1>the type of story I do all the time. And

0:12:17.120 --> 0:12:18.760
<v Speaker 1>I had no idea what I was getting into when

0:12:18.920 --> 0:12:22.400
<v Speaker 1>Joel Webber, the magazine that are asked me to do it. Yeah, Devin,

0:12:22.480 --> 0:12:26.679
<v Speaker 1>how did you find this story? I've never even heard.

0:12:26.679 --> 0:12:28.480
<v Speaker 1>I've never heard of this company. I never I'm not

0:12:28.520 --> 0:12:32.280
<v Speaker 1>a puzzle guy. Uh and and uh, but Joel kind

0:12:32.280 --> 0:12:34.320
<v Speaker 1>of is. I mean, I think he that part of

0:12:34.360 --> 0:12:37.040
<v Speaker 1>it is he knew about this from maybe being Tork

0:12:37.400 --> 0:12:41.880
<v Speaker 1>cousin or or something. But no, I don't. I just

0:12:42.280 --> 0:12:43.920
<v Speaker 1>said I just had no idea. It really wasn't. I

0:12:44.480 --> 0:12:46.480
<v Speaker 1>went up there and I stayed at that place. It's

0:12:46.480 --> 0:12:49.959
<v Speaker 1>really swanky, uh, you know, Resort Twin Farms, and they

0:12:49.960 --> 0:12:52.240
<v Speaker 1>had them in all the rooms. I couldn't do mine.

0:12:52.280 --> 0:12:55.640
<v Speaker 1>My daughter later did in ten minutes. But but but

0:12:55.679 --> 0:12:57.360
<v Speaker 1>that's when I started to see like, hey, wait a minute.

0:12:57.360 --> 0:13:00.680
<v Speaker 1>You know, you know, you know the rooms, the sweets

0:13:00.679 --> 0:13:02.800
<v Speaker 1>I go for, you know, a thousand, two thousand dollars

0:13:02.800 --> 0:13:05.960
<v Speaker 1>a night, and you know, you know there's something that

0:13:06.200 --> 0:13:09.280
<v Speaker 1>you know there, there's some there's something going going on here.

0:13:09.400 --> 0:13:10.760
<v Speaker 1>And then then I went over to the company and

0:13:11.000 --> 0:13:13.040
<v Speaker 1>basically they took me all around and show me with

0:13:13.080 --> 0:13:14.760
<v Speaker 1>crazy puzzles. And then they showed me a whole wall

0:13:14.760 --> 0:13:18.560
<v Speaker 1>and there's Jeff Bezos and Bill Gates and Queen Elizabeth

0:13:18.679 --> 0:13:22.719
<v Speaker 1>and the Bush family and you know, so basically all

0:13:22.800 --> 0:13:25.760
<v Speaker 1>these people. Um, I mean, well you have to have

0:13:25.800 --> 0:13:28.240
<v Speaker 1>money because because the puzzles cost as much as you know,

0:13:28.280 --> 0:13:31.520
<v Speaker 1>ten ten ten grants. Right. I have to say, like,

0:13:31.920 --> 0:13:34.520
<v Speaker 1>in reading your story, it feels like, and you just

0:13:34.840 --> 0:13:37.400
<v Speaker 1>illustrated it pretty well. It's almost like you go down

0:13:37.440 --> 0:13:40.800
<v Speaker 1>this rabbit hole, right, you know, into into this place

0:13:40.880 --> 0:13:45.439
<v Speaker 1>where people are sort of obsessive about it. Clearly they

0:13:45.880 --> 0:13:49.200
<v Speaker 1>appeal to a certain type of person. Tell us about

0:13:49.200 --> 0:13:55.520
<v Speaker 1>the puzzles themselves. Well, they mean, they're they're they're sort

0:13:55.520 --> 0:13:58.720
<v Speaker 1>of I guess they're very they're very I guess they're beautiful,

0:13:58.760 --> 0:14:01.720
<v Speaker 1>I mean a person. But they're designed and ways to

0:14:01.720 --> 0:14:04.160
<v Speaker 1>to just be be very difficult. They come in boxes

0:14:04.200 --> 0:14:06.280
<v Speaker 1>and blue boxes, so you don't have a picture of

0:14:06.280 --> 0:14:07.840
<v Speaker 1>the puzzle in the box and you put it together.

0:14:08.080 --> 0:14:11.240
<v Speaker 1>They throw in pieces that purposely don't fit. Then they

0:14:11.280 --> 0:14:13.440
<v Speaker 1>have all these other tricks that that they used to

0:14:13.480 --> 0:14:15.880
<v Speaker 1>drive people crazy. But then but then you you know,

0:14:15.920 --> 0:14:17.679
<v Speaker 1>you wind up talking to the people who spend all

0:14:17.679 --> 0:14:19.520
<v Speaker 1>this money, you know, these things, So that's what they want.

0:14:19.800 --> 0:14:22.080
<v Speaker 1>They want to kind of be tortured and and you know,

0:14:22.120 --> 0:14:23.600
<v Speaker 1>they want things to be really hard and they want

0:14:23.640 --> 0:14:25.600
<v Speaker 1>to be a challenge, and sometimes it drives them crazy.

0:14:25.600 --> 0:14:28.040
<v Speaker 1>And one guy said he's he curses at his puzzles,

0:14:28.080 --> 0:14:30.920
<v Speaker 1>but he buys ten a year, sorry, not ten a year,

0:14:31.080 --> 0:14:34.840
<v Speaker 1>ten at a time. Oh wow, you know, Devin, I'm

0:14:34.880 --> 0:14:37.040
<v Speaker 1>going on the website right now and there's a puzzle

0:14:37.080 --> 0:14:39.760
<v Speaker 1>for Valentine's Day that Jason's gonna get me. It's nine

0:14:39.880 --> 0:14:44.000
<v Speaker 1>hundred and seven dollars. It has this sweetheart little street.

0:14:44.040 --> 0:14:47.400
<v Speaker 1>It's called sweet Streets, just in time for Valentine's Day.

0:14:47.440 --> 0:14:49.920
<v Speaker 1>But in your story you talk about a lot of

0:14:49.960 --> 0:14:54.360
<v Speaker 1>other cool ones, um like these boxes and locks and

0:14:55.360 --> 0:14:58.560
<v Speaker 1>very non traditional, right, talk to us about some of

0:14:58.680 --> 0:15:03.120
<v Speaker 1>these crazy puzzles that you mentioned in your story. Well,

0:15:03.200 --> 0:15:05.440
<v Speaker 1>maybe the best example is, you know, this custom made

0:15:05.480 --> 0:15:07.640
<v Speaker 1>one that they made for this guy in in Dallas.

0:15:08.160 --> 0:15:11.000
<v Speaker 1>His name's Hal Brierley. He's a relaters and guy ended

0:15:11.080 --> 0:15:13.000
<v Speaker 1>up himself. I mean, he's sort of one of the

0:15:13.080 --> 0:15:17.240
<v Speaker 1>fathers of customer Customer loyally programs. He either designed them

0:15:17.360 --> 0:15:21.280
<v Speaker 1>or random for the major airlines, for Hurts, for Hilton.

0:15:21.800 --> 0:15:25.320
<v Speaker 1>But basically he's he's he's a guy. He's he's he's

0:15:25.320 --> 0:15:27.680
<v Speaker 1>a workaholic and he needs these puzzles sort to get

0:15:27.720 --> 0:15:30.680
<v Speaker 1>his mind off of an off of work. He's still

0:15:30.720 --> 0:15:32.960
<v Speaker 1>like seventy four and he's still doing this. So so basically,

0:15:33.480 --> 0:15:36.080
<v Speaker 1>his uh, his wife and his sister in law been

0:15:36.200 --> 0:15:39.360
<v Speaker 1>ordering him these custom made puzzles and uh, you know

0:15:39.560 --> 0:15:41.480
<v Speaker 1>the one he the one he's he's working on he

0:15:41.520 --> 0:15:43.520
<v Speaker 1>can't finish, just driving him nuts. It's more than a

0:15:43.640 --> 0:15:48.200
<v Speaker 1>thousand pieces and it's designed you know, it's inspired by

0:15:48.280 --> 0:15:52.440
<v Speaker 1>these African safari trips. They've all taken two thirds of

0:15:52.480 --> 0:15:55.360
<v Speaker 1>the pieces are all blue, and basically basically when he

0:15:55.600 --> 0:15:57.960
<v Speaker 1>doesn't understand, I mean maybe he's figured out. No, I

0:15:57.960 --> 0:16:00.280
<v Speaker 1>don't think he has. But there's a whole other level

0:16:00.760 --> 0:16:02.440
<v Speaker 1>to to the puzzle that fits on top of the

0:16:02.480 --> 0:16:05.080
<v Speaker 1>continent of Africa. It's all water but the but the

0:16:05.120 --> 0:16:07.440
<v Speaker 1>pieces are almost all the same size. There's no guide.

0:16:07.880 --> 0:16:09.600
<v Speaker 1>And this is a really smart guy. There's tons and

0:16:09.640 --> 0:16:12.200
<v Speaker 1>tons of puzzles, but he can't figure it out. And

0:16:12.360 --> 0:16:15.280
<v Speaker 1>he's I mean, I he basically said, I'm a guy

0:16:15.280 --> 0:16:16.960
<v Speaker 1>of bills by the hour. I'm sort of calculated how

0:16:17.040 --> 0:16:18.800
<v Speaker 1>much time they I don't know it's worth it. But

0:16:19.240 --> 0:16:21.000
<v Speaker 1>I love these things. So, you know, one of the

0:16:21.080 --> 0:16:23.200
<v Speaker 1>things that occurs to me Devon, and I wonder if

0:16:23.240 --> 0:16:24.640
<v Speaker 1>this occurred to you as you were working on it.

0:16:25.360 --> 0:16:29.840
<v Speaker 1>This feels like kind of an analog antidote to a

0:16:29.960 --> 0:16:33.120
<v Speaker 1>very digital world, right, you know, it's very tactile, and

0:16:33.280 --> 0:16:35.560
<v Speaker 1>even some of the other things you talk about are

0:16:35.760 --> 0:16:39.160
<v Speaker 1>experiential and more and more, it does feel like, and

0:16:39.400 --> 0:16:42.280
<v Speaker 1>you've alluded to this already, this is an escape from

0:16:42.400 --> 0:16:44.680
<v Speaker 1>being in front of these screens or holding our phones

0:16:44.720 --> 0:16:47.120
<v Speaker 1>and things like that. People draw a lot of satisfaction

0:16:47.160 --> 0:16:49.320
<v Speaker 1>out of this. Yeah, and and and and it is

0:16:49.360 --> 0:16:51.400
<v Speaker 1>sort of amazing that that in this day and age,

0:16:51.480 --> 0:16:54.760
<v Speaker 1>some little company could you know, prosper by making something

0:16:54.840 --> 0:16:56.400
<v Speaker 1>that's sort of like I guess now you can buy

0:16:56.440 --> 0:16:58.560
<v Speaker 1>them online. But they used to Everything used to be

0:16:58.920 --> 0:17:00.960
<v Speaker 1>you know, done through the male, and so they think

0:17:00.960 --> 0:17:03.400
<v Speaker 1>they still do something, you know, thank you notes, handwritten

0:17:03.440 --> 0:17:05.480
<v Speaker 1>thank you notes, and I mean the whole thing is

0:17:05.560 --> 0:17:07.800
<v Speaker 1>so sort of retro but I think that's for the point.

0:17:08.040 --> 0:17:09.760
<v Speaker 1>I mean, the one thing for them is the customers

0:17:09.800 --> 0:17:11.399
<v Speaker 1>are are pretty old. Just about everybody I talked to

0:17:11.520 --> 0:17:14.159
<v Speaker 1>was their seventies, so I mean, I did see them,

0:17:14.600 --> 0:17:17.720
<v Speaker 1>among other things. Well, it's Valentine's. They designed these puzzles

0:17:17.760 --> 0:17:21.200
<v Speaker 1>for people that you know, some person puts it together

0:17:21.240 --> 0:17:23.480
<v Speaker 1>with their significant another and then as they're finishing it,

0:17:24.040 --> 0:17:26.200
<v Speaker 1>you know that, you know, they put these pieces and

0:17:26.280 --> 0:17:28.200
<v Speaker 1>I guess, I guess the person I bought the puzzle

0:17:28.520 --> 0:17:30.119
<v Speaker 1>gives oh, by the way, I got these pieces, and

0:17:30.280 --> 0:17:33.359
<v Speaker 1>and it says, will you marry me? And and I

0:17:33.400 --> 0:17:36.119
<v Speaker 1>guess the one example, the one or two examples they

0:17:36.160 --> 0:17:41.440
<v Speaker 1>showed me, the answer was no. But no, so so

0:17:41.680 --> 0:17:47.440
<v Speaker 1>you know, buyer beware. But but but I mean, it's

0:17:47.840 --> 0:17:50.320
<v Speaker 1>it's uh, it's it's it's like nothing I've I've ever

0:17:50.359 --> 0:17:53.560
<v Speaker 1>seen before. Absolutely need I need to meet that girl

0:17:53.600 --> 0:17:55.600
<v Speaker 1>who said no. I think I'm a fan of hers,

0:17:57.119 --> 0:17:59.640
<v Speaker 1>you know. But on a more serious note, I think,

0:17:59.680 --> 0:18:02.600
<v Speaker 1>like you, we're alluding to Jason. In this digital world,

0:18:03.200 --> 0:18:06.800
<v Speaker 1>I remember during Superstorm Sandy, when all of our lights

0:18:06.840 --> 0:18:10.000
<v Speaker 1>went out, we're all doing puzzles by candle light, right

0:18:10.000 --> 0:18:13.000
<v Speaker 1>because our mobile devices stopped working. And around Christmas time,

0:18:13.040 --> 0:18:15.280
<v Speaker 1>when we're all on our phones, it's kind of a

0:18:15.359 --> 0:18:17.960
<v Speaker 1>nice break to maybe just sit down and do a puzzle.

0:18:18.040 --> 0:18:20.080
<v Speaker 1>And so I'm really wondering if this is the beginning

0:18:20.119 --> 0:18:22.520
<v Speaker 1>of a bigger trend where we put some of these

0:18:22.600 --> 0:18:25.280
<v Speaker 1>mobile devices down and use this as a really way

0:18:25.320 --> 0:18:27.680
<v Speaker 1>to connect with people again, if you're gonna afford it,

0:18:28.000 --> 0:18:31.000
<v Speaker 1>If you can afford it, that's absolutely true. Well, uh,

0:18:31.200 --> 0:18:33.960
<v Speaker 1>this is a really terrific story. It is being consumed

0:18:34.040 --> 0:18:37.880
<v Speaker 1>pretty madly on the Bloomberg terminal and online. This one's

0:18:37.880 --> 0:18:39.720
<v Speaker 1>gonna have a long tail. I can guarantee you that

0:18:39.840 --> 0:18:42.959
<v Speaker 1>Devin Leonard wrote it. He is projects an investigations reporter,

0:18:43.280 --> 0:18:46.399
<v Speaker 1>a different sort of project, in this case looking into

0:18:46.600 --> 0:18:54.960
<v Speaker 1>some very tough to solve puzzles. All right, it's one

0:18:55.000 --> 0:18:57.600
<v Speaker 1>of my favorite stories of the week. Not surprisingly, any

0:18:57.680 --> 0:19:00.480
<v Speaker 1>Massa wrote it. It's about big mone me on big

0:19:00.560 --> 0:19:05.280
<v Speaker 1>money Vanguard. We're talking about the mutual fund manager looking

0:19:05.280 --> 0:19:08.399
<v Speaker 1>after mutual funds, looking after index funds, getting into the

0:19:08.440 --> 0:19:12.280
<v Speaker 1>business of private equity, sort of dipping its toe a bit,

0:19:12.560 --> 0:19:15.080
<v Speaker 1>but we think probably we're going to put a leg

0:19:15.119 --> 0:19:17.119
<v Speaker 1>in it before too long. An easier with me in

0:19:17.200 --> 0:19:19.679
<v Speaker 1>New York City, tailor raigs in San Francisco. All right,

0:19:19.720 --> 0:19:22.320
<v Speaker 1>so Annie, tell us what Vanguard's up to. So Vanguard

0:19:22.359 --> 0:19:25.440
<v Speaker 1>has announced plans for a new private equity fund that

0:19:25.520 --> 0:19:29.800
<v Speaker 1>at first will only be available to institutions, smaller institutions

0:19:29.880 --> 0:19:33.520
<v Speaker 1>like endowments and nonprofit foundations, but that it hopes to

0:19:33.640 --> 0:19:37.160
<v Speaker 1>open up to a broader range of investors as it can,

0:19:37.320 --> 0:19:40.600
<v Speaker 1>and it's doing this with Harbor Vest Partners managing the

0:19:40.680 --> 0:19:44.960
<v Speaker 1>fund out of Boston, so Annie. The interesting thing is

0:19:45.040 --> 0:19:49.200
<v Speaker 1>that Vanguard is known for low cost passive indexing. This

0:19:49.400 --> 0:19:51.879
<v Speaker 1>is now PE, which you think of as high fees,

0:19:52.440 --> 0:19:56.960
<v Speaker 1>certainly nowhere near passive investing. How does this fit into

0:19:57.080 --> 0:20:01.359
<v Speaker 1>Vanguard strategy. It's a great question. As you know, Vanguard

0:20:01.600 --> 0:20:05.360
<v Speaker 1>is synonymous with this kind of retail facing, ultra low

0:20:05.520 --> 0:20:09.680
<v Speaker 1>cost index fund ethos that it was really built on.

0:20:10.400 --> 0:20:13.520
<v Speaker 1>But I mean, it does have an active management arm.

0:20:13.640 --> 0:20:17.879
<v Speaker 1>It's got over a trillion dollars in active strategies and

0:20:18.520 --> 0:20:22.320
<v Speaker 1>it sees this PE vehicle as a continuation of that.

0:20:22.800 --> 0:20:24.680
<v Speaker 1>But that's not to understate that it really is a

0:20:24.760 --> 0:20:28.840
<v Speaker 1>departure for such a huge indexing giant and index fund

0:20:29.000 --> 0:20:34.280
<v Speaker 1>giant um so PE. Obviously it's a place with higher fees,

0:20:34.400 --> 0:20:38.479
<v Speaker 1>longer lock up periods, and just a very different realm

0:20:38.760 --> 0:20:43.400
<v Speaker 1>of investing than index funds and so tell Us about

0:20:43.440 --> 0:20:48.200
<v Speaker 1>the experimentation that's happened so far because other big money managers,

0:20:48.240 --> 0:20:50.840
<v Speaker 1>the big three you know we call Vanguard, you call

0:20:51.080 --> 0:20:54.720
<v Speaker 1>you helped us understand a few weeks ago, Vanguard, State Street,

0:20:54.800 --> 0:20:59.000
<v Speaker 1>and black Rock, there's been some experimentation here, right, Yeah,

0:20:59.080 --> 0:21:01.760
<v Speaker 1>that's right. Vanguard certainly not the only one of those

0:21:01.880 --> 0:21:04.960
<v Speaker 1>three big fund firms to try and get into PEE.

0:21:05.160 --> 0:21:08.359
<v Speaker 1>You also saw black Rock two years ago announced its

0:21:08.440 --> 0:21:12.560
<v Speaker 1>own new private equity style of vehicle called long Term

0:21:12.640 --> 0:21:17.360
<v Speaker 1>Private Capital that's taking stakes in private companies. And it's

0:21:17.400 --> 0:21:20.280
<v Speaker 1>another indication now that you see Vanguard doing it as well,

0:21:20.680 --> 0:21:25.520
<v Speaker 1>that private equity is becoming kind of irresistible to these firms.

0:21:25.880 --> 0:21:30.480
<v Speaker 1>And you know, fees are something that you cannot ignore um.

0:21:30.960 --> 0:21:36.600
<v Speaker 1>And also there's more institutional ability to allocate to private equity. UM.

0:21:37.160 --> 0:21:40.160
<v Speaker 1>You see funds raising record amounts. So it's a piece

0:21:40.200 --> 0:21:42.040
<v Speaker 1>of the market that they don't want to be left

0:21:42.080 --> 0:21:45.080
<v Speaker 1>out of for much longer. Andy, I also wonder if

0:21:45.160 --> 0:21:49.240
<v Speaker 1>this is classic peak pe that a Vanguard is getting in.

0:21:49.720 --> 0:21:53.000
<v Speaker 1>It's just a sign of my mom, my dad, my grandma,

0:21:53.359 --> 0:21:55.800
<v Speaker 1>you know, every sort of retail investor wanting a piece

0:21:55.840 --> 0:21:57.720
<v Speaker 1>of the action. And it is a sign that we

0:21:57.800 --> 0:21:59.760
<v Speaker 1>were at peak PEE. We should all be running for

0:21:59.800 --> 0:22:03.199
<v Speaker 1>the don't be so dismissive of the rigs. They're very

0:22:03.280 --> 0:22:09.159
<v Speaker 1>sophisticated investors with UM no offense to anyone in your

0:22:09.200 --> 0:22:14.040
<v Speaker 1>family and the investing strategies, Taylor. UM is that some

0:22:14.200 --> 0:22:19.280
<v Speaker 1>people say, some kind of advocates for individual investors have said,

0:22:19.960 --> 0:22:22.840
<v Speaker 1>you know, we haven't This vehicle is not open to

0:22:22.920 --> 0:22:25.000
<v Speaker 1>retail investors yet. And it's important to note that there

0:22:25.040 --> 0:22:28.719
<v Speaker 1>are regulatory restrictions on who can invest in PE right now.

0:22:29.200 --> 0:22:32.720
<v Speaker 1>You see big firms like black Stone and KKR and

0:22:32.760 --> 0:22:37.359
<v Speaker 1>Apollo wanting to angle into a broader audience UM and

0:22:37.480 --> 0:22:42.080
<v Speaker 1>open up their private equity vehicles to more investors. But

0:22:42.480 --> 0:22:46.800
<v Speaker 1>what these UM advocates for individual investors say in some

0:22:46.960 --> 0:22:50.440
<v Speaker 1>cases is, you know, they're not sure that it makes

0:22:50.680 --> 0:22:53.760
<v Speaker 1>sense to change the rules about who can invest in

0:22:53.880 --> 0:22:57.560
<v Speaker 1>P because they're more esoteric. Lock up periods are longer,

0:22:58.040 --> 0:23:00.440
<v Speaker 1>and they say that it might not necess necessarily be

0:23:00.480 --> 0:23:02.879
<v Speaker 1>a good thing for the end investor or, Like the

0:23:03.000 --> 0:23:09.280
<v Speaker 1>less sophisticated Invester Well and as you noted there, Blackstone

0:23:09.320 --> 0:23:13.800
<v Speaker 1>and others Blackstone, Carlo, KKR, they are desperate to get

0:23:13.880 --> 0:23:16.199
<v Speaker 1>to this like holy grail of the retail investor. They

0:23:16.240 --> 0:23:19.360
<v Speaker 1>just see this as this massive pool that they want

0:23:19.400 --> 0:23:22.639
<v Speaker 1>to swim into the to their hearts content. Right, And

0:23:22.760 --> 0:23:25.399
<v Speaker 1>if you think about it, you can't really have pe

0:23:25.600 --> 0:23:28.399
<v Speaker 1>in a four oh one K, for example, But I

0:23:28.520 --> 0:23:31.080
<v Speaker 1>think that they might argue a four oh one K

0:23:31.320 --> 0:23:34.800
<v Speaker 1>is a perfect place for a private equity fund because

0:23:35.480 --> 0:23:38.560
<v Speaker 1>you're not really supposed to touch that money for long

0:23:38.640 --> 0:23:42.560
<v Speaker 1>periods of time, for decades, so it makes perfect sense to,

0:23:43.600 --> 0:23:46.080
<v Speaker 1>you know, put a p style vehicle in there. UM.

0:23:46.560 --> 0:23:48.760
<v Speaker 1>Of course, they have products to sell, so you have

0:23:48.880 --> 0:23:51.320
<v Speaker 1>to keep that in mind as they, you know, make

0:23:51.400 --> 0:23:56.359
<v Speaker 1>their case. UH in Washington, any any sort of thoughts

0:23:56.440 --> 0:23:59.440
<v Speaker 1>on when we would see this type of vehicle be

0:23:59.640 --> 0:24:03.840
<v Speaker 1>open to retail investors. There's no real clarity around that yet.

0:24:04.000 --> 0:24:07.280
<v Speaker 1>But regulators are reassessing whether they should change some of

0:24:07.320 --> 0:24:11.159
<v Speaker 1>the restrictions on private equity investments. So it's a an

0:24:11.240 --> 0:24:15.480
<v Speaker 1>issue that's evolving, and UM Vanguard is UH, I think,

0:24:15.640 --> 0:24:18.080
<v Speaker 1>trying to get ahead of it because I think they

0:24:18.119 --> 0:24:20.679
<v Speaker 1>wouldn't want to be caught flat footed if the regulations

0:24:20.720 --> 0:24:25.000
<v Speaker 1>were to change. UM with their army of advisors that

0:24:25.080 --> 0:24:28.680
<v Speaker 1>could potentially sell those um kinds of vehicles to trying

0:24:28.680 --> 0:24:31.480
<v Speaker 1>to be on the vanguard. All right, Annie massa investing

0:24:31.600 --> 0:24:36.920
<v Speaker 1>reporter for Bloomberg, keeping a very close eye on everything

0:24:37.000 --> 0:24:39.520
<v Speaker 1>that happens in the world, a big money on our

0:24:39.640 --> 0:24:51.960
<v Speaker 1>investing team journal. Yeah, but you let me drive, No, Ann, please,

0:24:54.760 --> 0:25:11.440
<v Speaker 1>I want to drive, drive the questions, the drive to

0:25:11.520 --> 0:25:17.320
<v Speaker 1>the globes community. Thanks well us, Bloomberg Radio. All right,

0:25:17.320 --> 0:25:21.080
<v Speaker 1>it's time for the Drive to the clothes. Let's get

0:25:21.119 --> 0:25:24.399
<v Speaker 1>into it with Rob Crocha. He is senior portfolio manager

0:25:24.520 --> 0:25:27.479
<v Speaker 1>for Risk Parody and Managed Features at Melon, joining us

0:25:27.560 --> 0:25:30.480
<v Speaker 1>on the phone from Boston. Rob, great to have you

0:25:30.560 --> 0:25:33.720
<v Speaker 1>with Taylor Riggs and myself. So what are you seeing

0:25:33.760 --> 0:25:36.400
<v Speaker 1>in this market right now? It feels like we're kind

0:25:36.400 --> 0:25:38.920
<v Speaker 1>of catching our breath here on a Friday after a

0:25:39.040 --> 0:25:42.200
<v Speaker 1>few turbulent weeks and candidly a couple of turbulent Fridays

0:25:42.280 --> 0:25:44.679
<v Speaker 1>where you saw a big sell off going into the weekend.

0:25:47.200 --> 0:25:49.399
<v Speaker 1>It still feels like a risk on market to us.

0:25:49.720 --> 0:25:53.400
<v Speaker 1>Um you know, when we when we saw the response

0:25:53.480 --> 0:25:57.000
<v Speaker 1>of the market to you know, frankly, pretty big macro

0:25:57.200 --> 0:26:01.560
<v Speaker 1>news including coronavirus UM and the market just seems to

0:26:01.720 --> 0:26:05.320
<v Speaker 1>continue to shrug off risk with the idea that monetary

0:26:05.400 --> 0:26:09.640
<v Speaker 1>policy has got our back. Um, it's the market has

0:26:09.760 --> 0:26:14.280
<v Speaker 1>a really positive sentiment here, Rob, I was reading through

0:26:14.320 --> 0:26:16.199
<v Speaker 1>your notes and one thing that I really liked, as

0:26:16.240 --> 0:26:19.480
<v Speaker 1>you're talking about value go along cheap stocks, short expensive ones.

0:26:19.720 --> 0:26:22.920
<v Speaker 1>We were talking in an earlier segment about the rotation

0:26:23.080 --> 0:26:26.280
<v Speaker 1>or really the lack of rotation here between value and growth.

0:26:26.440 --> 0:26:30.000
<v Speaker 1>Are you still preferring value here? You know, as a

0:26:30.080 --> 0:26:33.639
<v Speaker 1>as a quand investor, we try to be empirically driven.

0:26:33.800 --> 0:26:35.960
<v Speaker 1>And the truth is that for a big investor that

0:26:36.000 --> 0:26:41.600
<v Speaker 1>has to deploy significant capital, traditional value it just naively applied,

0:26:41.920 --> 0:26:45.560
<v Speaker 1>has never really worked. So if you break down what's driven,

0:26:46.040 --> 0:26:49.720
<v Speaker 1>you know, from a French factor performance, it was tiny

0:26:49.800 --> 0:26:52.959
<v Speaker 1>stocks and it was actually the short side of tiny stocks.

0:26:53.000 --> 0:26:55.720
<v Speaker 1>So small stocks that have been really beaten down and

0:26:55.840 --> 0:26:59.399
<v Speaker 1>are still expensive, those those are the ones that have

0:26:59.560 --> 0:27:02.600
<v Speaker 1>tended to do very poorly, and being short those has

0:27:02.680 --> 0:27:06.560
<v Speaker 1>been has has been a great booster for value strategies.

0:27:06.920 --> 0:27:10.159
<v Speaker 1>And so if you look at the data that is

0:27:10.320 --> 0:27:13.760
<v Speaker 1>underneath of the original papers on value, they are not

0:27:13.920 --> 0:27:17.320
<v Speaker 1>supportive of just being long a big naive value index

0:27:17.400 --> 0:27:21.399
<v Speaker 1>portfolio never worked, doesn't work now, so talk to us

0:27:21.400 --> 0:27:24.360
<v Speaker 1>about factors. Rob remind us, you know, for our audience

0:27:24.440 --> 0:27:28.800
<v Speaker 1>that's not as familiar what that involves. What basically the

0:27:28.960 --> 0:27:32.560
<v Speaker 1>lens through which you see the market is absolutely when

0:27:32.640 --> 0:27:35.640
<v Speaker 1>we think about the market, we're thinking about it as

0:27:35.720 --> 0:27:39.159
<v Speaker 1>a group of stocks that are weighted by their market

0:27:39.240 --> 0:27:43.000
<v Speaker 1>capitalization relative to each other. So when I think about beta,

0:27:43.480 --> 0:27:46.879
<v Speaker 1>that is just exposure to the market as it exists

0:27:46.920 --> 0:27:49.600
<v Speaker 1>in the market today, I'm buying more stocks that that

0:27:49.760 --> 0:27:52.560
<v Speaker 1>have higher market cabin less of stocks with lower market cap.

0:27:53.440 --> 0:27:56.919
<v Speaker 1>Smart beta or or sort of long only factor exposure

0:27:57.400 --> 0:28:00.720
<v Speaker 1>is where you don't you're still long only, but you've

0:28:00.760 --> 0:28:04.280
<v Speaker 1>got exposure only two stocks with certain characteristics. So you

0:28:04.440 --> 0:28:07.800
<v Speaker 1>let go of that cap waiting methodology and you begin

0:28:07.920 --> 0:28:11.639
<v Speaker 1>to wait based on something the attractiveness of valuations, or

0:28:11.680 --> 0:28:14.840
<v Speaker 1>how well it's done recently, or how defensive it is

0:28:14.960 --> 0:28:18.480
<v Speaker 1>low volatility, it is how the quality of the stocks earnings.

0:28:19.119 --> 0:28:22.320
<v Speaker 1>So those are smart beta portfolios. I'm still long only,

0:28:22.680 --> 0:28:24.600
<v Speaker 1>but I'm long a basket of stocks I think will

0:28:24.600 --> 0:28:27.919
<v Speaker 1>outperform the market because they have good characteristics. And then

0:28:28.119 --> 0:28:32.520
<v Speaker 1>power factors long short are smart beta minus bet at

0:28:32.600 --> 0:28:37.760
<v Speaker 1>just a smart part. Rob curious to see how you

0:28:37.880 --> 0:28:41.320
<v Speaker 1>are factoring in momentum at this point, if at all.

0:28:42.440 --> 0:28:45.120
<v Speaker 1>So we're always factoring in momentum. Momentum is one of

0:28:45.200 --> 0:28:49.000
<v Speaker 1>the factors that works across capsizes, so if you're a

0:28:49.080 --> 0:28:51.800
<v Speaker 1>big investor, you can still take advantage of momentum strategies.

0:28:52.040 --> 0:28:54.600
<v Speaker 1>The other thing about momentum is it's the same language

0:28:54.600 --> 0:28:57.640
<v Speaker 1>across asset classes, So it's very straightforward for me to

0:28:57.680 --> 0:29:00.920
<v Speaker 1>build a portfolio where I'm doing momentum cash equities, I'm

0:29:00.960 --> 0:29:04.040
<v Speaker 1>doing momentum in equity indices, I'm doing momentum in bonds

0:29:04.080 --> 0:29:07.959
<v Speaker 1>and commodities. It's it is a very robust factor, and frankly,

0:29:08.040 --> 0:29:10.880
<v Speaker 1>it's been a much better performing factor than value since

0:29:11.200 --> 0:29:17.120
<v Speaker 1>since it was discovered. Do you have I'm curious to

0:29:17.440 --> 0:29:20.800
<v Speaker 1>dig a little bit more into the momentum question. If

0:29:20.840 --> 0:29:24.920
<v Speaker 1>you've ever seen momentum like this before? You think of

0:29:25.000 --> 0:29:29.000
<v Speaker 1>the massive run up, the length of the bullmarket, and

0:29:29.120 --> 0:29:31.680
<v Speaker 1>the rate at which we have gotten to fresh record

0:29:31.760 --> 0:29:34.840
<v Speaker 1>highs every day. Have you seen this type of momentum before?

0:29:34.880 --> 0:29:37.760
<v Speaker 1>As you take a look at your factor models, we've

0:29:37.800 --> 0:29:40.240
<v Speaker 1>seen we haven't seen this length of a bull market

0:29:40.280 --> 0:29:42.600
<v Speaker 1>in stocks. I mean, I think that that's you know, unequivocal.

0:29:42.960 --> 0:29:45.480
<v Speaker 1>But what we've clearly seen is is runs where you

0:29:45.600 --> 0:29:49.200
<v Speaker 1>have made as much money being long or short based

0:29:49.240 --> 0:29:52.760
<v Speaker 1>on momentum. What's different in this market is that if

0:29:52.800 --> 0:29:55.400
<v Speaker 1>you're if you're if you're talking about trend trend falling,

0:29:55.440 --> 0:29:58.440
<v Speaker 1>which is momentum, but but but with a drifting bias

0:29:58.520 --> 0:30:01.400
<v Speaker 1>to being long and stuff is going well on average um.

0:30:02.280 --> 0:30:04.240
<v Speaker 1>This is not a market that's been permitted to fall.

0:30:04.800 --> 0:30:07.600
<v Speaker 1>So it used to be the case that when sentiment

0:30:07.720 --> 0:30:11.040
<v Speaker 1>got bad, it could get worse and get worse after that,

0:30:11.280 --> 0:30:13.720
<v Speaker 1>and that markets would continue to fall in there would

0:30:13.720 --> 0:30:17.160
<v Speaker 1>this be this building sort of bad sentiment that gets

0:30:17.200 --> 0:30:20.760
<v Speaker 1>worse and worse. That has not happened. Monetary policy has

0:30:20.800 --> 0:30:24.320
<v Speaker 1>got our back um and and anytime the market really

0:30:24.480 --> 0:30:28.160
<v Speaker 1>starts to do very poorly, monetary policy expectations change, treasury

0:30:28.280 --> 0:30:31.960
<v Speaker 1>yields plummet, and the party starts over again. And and

0:30:32.160 --> 0:30:34.480
<v Speaker 1>because of that, that's been hard because a lot of

0:30:34.960 --> 0:30:37.000
<v Speaker 1>as a factor investor, a lot of what we do

0:30:37.120 --> 0:30:40.600
<v Speaker 1>in factor space makes money when saying when sentiment changes

0:30:40.680 --> 0:30:42.600
<v Speaker 1>for the for the worst. That is a big part

0:30:42.640 --> 0:30:45.880
<v Speaker 1>of why factors have been so awful. Lately, so Rob.

0:30:46.040 --> 0:30:48.600
<v Speaker 1>You know, we started the conversation talking about a market

0:30:48.720 --> 0:30:52.000
<v Speaker 1>that has been uh shrugging it off or maybe in

0:30:52.160 --> 0:30:55.760
<v Speaker 1>the words of another tailor, Taylor Swift, shaking it off.

0:30:56.800 --> 0:31:00.760
<v Speaker 1>When you think about the coronavirus I risk, you think

0:31:00.840 --> 0:31:04.120
<v Speaker 1>about how global markets, and certainly the US market has

0:31:04.240 --> 0:31:08.640
<v Speaker 1>continued with a couple notable exceptions to really take it

0:31:08.720 --> 0:31:12.640
<v Speaker 1>in stride. Does that worry you at all? Does that

0:31:12.760 --> 0:31:15.360
<v Speaker 1>sort of go against what you would expect given all

0:31:15.720 --> 0:31:19.600
<v Speaker 1>the factors you talked about? It does a lot of

0:31:19.640 --> 0:31:22.760
<v Speaker 1>stuff worries us because but but as you know, those

0:31:22.840 --> 0:31:25.080
<v Speaker 1>worries are the same thing that cause an investor that

0:31:25.200 --> 0:31:28.720
<v Speaker 1>doesn't have discipline, doesn't have a process to bail out

0:31:28.800 --> 0:31:31.320
<v Speaker 1>before before they they've done as well as they can

0:31:31.360 --> 0:31:33.719
<v Speaker 1>in the market. You know, most of our investors need

0:31:33.760 --> 0:31:37.080
<v Speaker 1>to make seven plus percent return a year on average

0:31:37.160 --> 0:31:40.000
<v Speaker 1>in order to meet their their liabilities. And you can't

0:31:40.040 --> 0:31:42.360
<v Speaker 1>make that kind of return in a high valuation market,

0:31:42.480 --> 0:31:45.760
<v Speaker 1>especially if you're not invested, and so tapping out is

0:31:45.800 --> 0:31:49.720
<v Speaker 1>not an option. So what's left Well, you basically have

0:31:49.840 --> 0:31:52.880
<v Speaker 1>to manage risk very actively. You stay in the market,

0:31:53.000 --> 0:31:56.000
<v Speaker 1>and you monitor for for when the environment changes and

0:31:56.120 --> 0:31:59.160
<v Speaker 1>you adapted very quickly. And that's what we do across

0:31:59.240 --> 0:32:02.600
<v Speaker 1>our platform with all of our adapted strategies. All right.

0:32:02.720 --> 0:32:06.640
<v Speaker 1>Rob croch Is, senior portfolio manager for Risk Parody and

0:32:06.880 --> 0:32:09.520
<v Speaker 1>Managed Future, is talking to us about smart beta factors

0:32:09.880 --> 0:32:12.520
<v Speaker 1>and so much more. He works at Mellon joined us

0:32:12.560 --> 0:32:16.640
<v Speaker 1>on the phone from Boston. Thanks for listening to Bloomberg

0:32:16.680 --> 0:32:20.000
<v Speaker 1>Business Week. You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes, SoundCloud,

0:32:20.080 --> 0:32:22.160
<v Speaker 1>or Bloomberg dot com. You can also listen to our

0:32:22.280 --> 0:32:25.120
<v Speaker 1>radio show every weekday at two pm Eastern only on

0:32:25.200 --> 0:32:26.000
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Radio