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Speaker 1: Now here's a highlight from Coast to Coast AM on iHeartRadio.

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Speaker 2: All right, so before we move on with the doomsday question,

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Speaker 2: I thought i'd chair something that came into Twitter at

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Speaker 2: Deacon Punnet is the my Twitter handle and the interesting comment.

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Speaker 2: But they said, you know, I think this is all

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Speaker 2: being overblown. A lot of people will say this, right,

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Speaker 2: They say that that people are quote majorly over reacting

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Speaker 2: to AI. The stupid thing makes arms coming out of

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Speaker 2: people's heads and seven misshapen fingers.

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Speaker 3: I don't know.

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Speaker 2: Exactly what that means, but here's the here's that line

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Speaker 2: from the usual suspects. The greatest trick you ever pulled

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Speaker 2: was convincing the world that he didn't exist. And I

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Speaker 2: know we're not talking about a sentient AI, like it

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Speaker 2: was sitting around thinking about how it was going to

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Speaker 2: evade capture. But I do think that there's a parallel here,

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Speaker 2: at very least in that you know this, it's wise

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Speaker 2: that we think about AI because it's going to be,

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Speaker 2: as you said earlier, this is going to become increasingly

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Speaker 2: evident as something we're going to have to wrestle with

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Speaker 2: in our life for years to come.

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Speaker 3: Yes, you asked me about disaster scenarios. Yeah, in this recognition,

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Speaker 3: I have something where I call it digital delirium. And

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Speaker 3: it started and I was thinking about the Russian invasion

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Speaker 3: of Ukraine last year and night. It's a writing for

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Speaker 3: USC News service on this. But my argument to start

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Speaker 3: at the end would be we need to back up

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Speaker 3: things more so we'll have something to compare against in

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Speaker 3: the future, because I don't think if we get taken over,

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Speaker 3: big or small, it'll be an obvious way. It'll be

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Speaker 3: a subtle way you won't really realize. One way to

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Speaker 3: do that is check against the past, some kind of system,

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Speaker 3: restore point. And I give you our GPS system, the

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Speaker 3: thirty one satellites that orbit and control the timing of

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Speaker 3: this broadcast of almost all local area networks, of all banking,

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Speaker 3: airlines and everything. Now there's a real risk that Russia,

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Speaker 3: which we know has penetrated our software systems are grid

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Speaker 3: and our GPS could manipulate that. But people may not know,

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Speaker 3: believe it or not, we don't have a backup of GPS.

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Speaker 3: Russia build its own GPS system, it's backed it up.

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Speaker 3: China has its own system, it's backed it up. So

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Speaker 3: in an ongoing escalation with Russia. This could happen. I'm

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Speaker 3: about to tell you, or say a Taiwanese if the

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Speaker 3: Chinese invade Taiwan, and that kind of scenario, which a

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Speaker 3: lot of people are wargaming right now, and so a

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Speaker 3: digital delirium would go like this each day. Those thirty

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Speaker 3: one satellites orbiting the Earth are going so fast in

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Speaker 3: the so far away have two different effects due to

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Speaker 3: Einstein relativity and special relativity and general relativity, as you recall,

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Speaker 3: says that mass bins or curved space and time. So

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Speaker 3: these satellites are about twelve thousand plus miles away from

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Speaker 3: the surface of the Earth. They only feel about one

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Speaker 3: fourth the gravity that you and I feel right now.

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Speaker 3: So what that means is they run faster. And so

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Speaker 3: you think about it, if you got closer to a black hole,

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Speaker 3: time slows down how much faster? About forty five millions

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Speaker 3: of a second. And this has to be constantly corrected.

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Speaker 3: Right now and as broadcast this is happening. So the

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Speaker 3: onboard computer clocks, atomic clocks, maser clocks are speeding up

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Speaker 3: and relative to what we have here on Earth because

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Speaker 3: of general relativity. But these satellites are going so fast

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Speaker 3: about two and a half miles per second, that they

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Speaker 3: feel the effects of Einstein's special theory of relativity, which says,

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Speaker 3: like in the twin paradox, that time slows down, and

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Speaker 3: so they slow down about seven seconds millions of a second.

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Speaker 3: So at all times each day we're having a speed

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Speaker 3: up of our clocks of about thirty eight millions of

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Speaker 3: a second. And if that isn't corrected within minutes, utter

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Speaker 3: chaos breaks loose. So a digital delirium would be putting it,

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Speaker 3: just sittling with that a little bit, getting it off

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Speaker 3: to a few decimal points. It would be the way

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Speaker 3: I would do it. And the Russians are great and

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Speaker 3: probability in chess, so I don't think they would just

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Speaker 3: shut down GPS or blind. It'd be a lot better

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Speaker 3: to infiltrate that do something smart, and we may not

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Speaker 3: detect that for a very long time, and I think

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Speaker 3: the only way to detect that is a backup and

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Speaker 3: a comparison. I give you the example of how the

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Speaker 3: computer and the Great Stanley Kubrick aren't a Clark movie

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Speaker 3: two thousand and one. Remember at the key scene, there's

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Speaker 3: a match between the on board nine one thousand series

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Speaker 3: or whatever it was, how versus the one land based

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Speaker 3: and they didn't match up, and that was the only

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Speaker 3: real signal that the astronauts had, the space knots had

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Speaker 3: that their computer was an error. And so without that

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Speaker 3: we are untethered if we don't have that benchmark, and

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Speaker 3: we've got to keep it and we just don't think

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Speaker 3: about it, I.

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Speaker 1: Mean, think about it.

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Speaker 3: How much would it cost to backup? Yeah, apparently only

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Speaker 3: a couple three billion dollars and we still haven't done it.

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Speaker 3: Stunning Well, that's an exact level. You and I are

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Speaker 3: vulnerable at the personal.

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Speaker 2: Level, right, But I mean we even just to go

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Speaker 2: with what you mentioned there, then it would require us

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Speaker 2: to back it up on an analog system, wouldn't it

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Speaker 2: a localized analog system not not replicate the problem by

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Speaker 2: giving it digital access to somebody with sophisticated hackery like

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Speaker 2: the Russians.

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Speaker 3: That's true, but one way around that is redundancy. So

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Speaker 3: we did, with enough effort, back up enough of it,

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Speaker 3: and it might be we erase it after period of time.

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Speaker 3: But I don't see how you could correct a large

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Speaker 3: scale AI corruption without some benchmark, without some ground truths,

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Speaker 3: and that ground truth is changing very fast, and that

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Speaker 3: means also that you're going to have to build some

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Speaker 3: of these very large, billion trillion parameter systems, if nothing else,

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Speaker 3: just to keep track of it. And we're raising ahead

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Speaker 3: without thinking about any of this stuff. And when we

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Speaker 3: put up a GPS, I remember going up to UC

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Speaker 3: Berkeley in nineteen ninety one, Communism was about to fall,

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Speaker 3: and we thought, well, this will really open a system

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Speaker 3: for smart cars, that we would have smart car platoons

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Speaker 3: on the freeway. By the way, discussed this in the book,

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Speaker 3: because you're thinking, we did some testing on I fifteen

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Speaker 3: of this and that we would have the system pulsing down,

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Speaker 3: and we were thinking about that, but people weren't thinking

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Speaker 3: about some opponents not just undermining it, but in a

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Speaker 3: very subtle way undermining it, like you're putting us in

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Speaker 3: a kind of kind of delirium. But it's a very

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Speaker 3: tough problem even if things weren't changing as fast as

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Speaker 3: they are, and they're changing it at a truly unprecedented.

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Speaker 2: Cliff so, but again, analog local network, at least some

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Speaker 2: of it could be digitized and duplicated. But there is

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Speaker 2: something to be said for kind of old systems, including

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Speaker 2: old satellites that if we're going to use a satellite,

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Speaker 2: then would behoove us to not use a modern digital

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Speaker 2: based satellite. That we should be able to access older

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Speaker 2: satellites which would be impervious to digital hacking.

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Speaker 3: You know, it would be impervious to some sorts of hacking,

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Speaker 3: but you could still interfere with this handlog processing. Really,

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Speaker 3: I don't think that would buy you much, and I

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Speaker 3: don't think the satellites are pretty discrete entities out there

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Speaker 3: quite exposed. Plus, for example, the Chinese seemed to have

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Speaker 3: perfected kinetic weapons and others that just wouldn't care about

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Speaker 3: in a conflict. Care about the programming aspects, but I'm

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Speaker 3: talking about just land based systems and our own items

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Speaker 3: and hostile actors in no one really knows who are

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Speaker 3: what here, but the potential for manipulation of an aisystem

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Speaker 3: in a subtle way, which I think could be more

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Speaker 3: probable in some gross way. Look, we just had a

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Speaker 3: system failure of a fiber optic cable, as you said,

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Speaker 3: just probably through the noise effects and the raw maxim

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Speaker 3: equations physics. So that's difficult enough to deal with. But

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Speaker 3: it's the change in these systems and it comes back

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Speaker 3: to the fact again, this is not AI. This is

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Speaker 3: black box AI an important subset, but it's a subset

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Speaker 3: of AI, and as it gets bigger, the black box

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Speaker 3: problem only gets worse. And you say, well, how do

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Speaker 3: we solve it? Well, if you try to ask at

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Speaker 3: all possible questions and swore the answers. First off, it's

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Speaker 3: too many questions answer pairs. But if you could, you

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Speaker 3: wouldn't need the system. But you can't do that. And

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Speaker 3: it's learning new things, so it's forgetting old things, but

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Speaker 3: we don't know what it's forgotten when we teach it

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Speaker 3: something new. It's an inherent problem of a black box problem,

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Speaker 3: and I sually just going to get a lot worse

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Speaker 3: as we go our own black boxes. There are other

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Speaker 3: ways potentially to corrupt the training of our systems by

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Speaker 3: the introduction of different kinds of data. So the sinister

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Speaker 3: aspects of this, besides sky net type takeovers whatever's happened

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Speaker 3: in the new Mission of Right, are really unlimited here.

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Speaker 3: I mean, every time we have a new digital device,

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Speaker 3: we open up the what's called the threat frontier for

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Speaker 3: hackers and a bunch of other male actors going on.

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Speaker 3: But these system it's a whole different game. I think

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Speaker 3: about that if you can manipulate your programming, like we

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Speaker 3: can introduce what are called hints hi and ts hints

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Speaker 3: into the programming, and somebody could do that, do just

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Speaker 3: kind of as we say, rotate your axis or gets

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Speaker 3: you to think a little more this way towards my

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Speaker 3: political opinion or away from the other and very subtle effect.

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Speaker 3: Extremely difficult to detect something like that.

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Speaker 2: So the and that would let's hope that you're right

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Speaker 2: that it becomes extremely difficult. That black box feature was

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Speaker 2: part of the new Mission Impossible movie, and that's the

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Speaker 2: whole mcguffin that they're pursuing, is that they're coming after

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Speaker 2: they're trying to find out where that black box is

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Speaker 2: because to have the black boxes to control of the world.

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Speaker 2: I'm not giving away anything for people who haven't seen

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Speaker 2: the movie yet, I strongly encourage them to. Is a

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Speaker 2: lot of fun. Okay, So, but then did we everything

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Speaker 2: that we talked about there? Does that adequately address your concerns?

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Speaker 2: What do your worst case scenarios are a sort of

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Speaker 2: a doomsday scenario for AI and for that matter, any

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Speaker 2: type of self teaching system.

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Speaker 3: Not at all. I mean not in the least. There's

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Speaker 3: so many problems when you combine this with nano issues

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Speaker 3: and warfare and something else I talked about in the

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Speaker 3: books I've mentioned before, when you start backing up the

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Speaker 3: human brain, which we're going to be doing, likely in

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Speaker 3: our children's lifetime, possibly in hours, the ability to have

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Speaker 3: explore this in the novel Nano Time, where that the

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Speaker 3: very name refers to the speed up in time when

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Speaker 3: you're on a private or chip time at billion times

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Speaker 3: per second. But the protagonist finds out that his brain

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Speaker 3: has been circumscribed by those who thinks are his friends

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Speaker 3: to various ends, and you just wouldn't know that if

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Speaker 3: it had happened, and if you didn't have them, if

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Speaker 3: you are in a digital system, you can be shut down.

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Speaker 3: This is the legitimate concern I hear about moving to

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Speaker 3: a digital currency in our current political atmosphere, that it's

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Speaker 3: just too easy to say, okay, Ian, we don't think

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Speaker 3: you should be purchasing these kind of things today, or

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Speaker 3: based on which you've done a kind of social credit

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Speaker 3: system like the Chinese already implementing anything digital has that

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Speaker 3: and you can just something the Orwellian gods could only

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Speaker 3: have dreamt of shut somebody completely off, put them in

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Speaker 3: a kind of digital prison, and we're just not thinking

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Speaker 3: that through let alone the privacy invasions that we've had

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Speaker 3: and we've talked about. For example, since I last talked

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Speaker 3: to you, the Federal Court is revealed that the FBI

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Speaker 3: has abused the Foreign Intelligence Services Act Surveillance Act almost

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Speaker 3: two hundred and seventy thousand times in the last four years.

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Speaker 1: Wow.

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Speaker 3: And that's up by the way session seven oh two

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Speaker 3: for renewal at the end of the year. We'll see

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Speaker 3: if that provision gets renewed. But just that kind of

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Speaker 3: thing our own government and the rapidly expanding surveillance state.

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Speaker 3: And one other point there is once we have a

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Speaker 3: surveillance state setup, we have it. It was greatly expanded

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Speaker 3: because the Patriot Act, in the nine to eleven attack,

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Speaker 3: the advantage goes completely to the surveillance date because it

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Speaker 3: gets to take advantage of all these rises and technology

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Speaker 3: without passing any new laws, asking any judges to interpret

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Speaker 3: old laws, updating the software, just updating the hardware, plugging

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Speaker 3: the new modules. That's very difficult to deal with. And

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Speaker 3: you know, we're seeing a lot of testimony now about

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Speaker 3: in terms about interaction between the FBI and maybe Twitter

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Speaker 3: files if you follow it, which you're also broken, and

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Speaker 3: that's our own side doing that. You know, imagine hostile

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Speaker 3: actors or something that could evolve on its own in

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Speaker 3: the sky. Neet kind of scenario is possible too. A

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Speaker 3: lot of the algorithms use, as I myself have patented,

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Speaker 3: use noise to inject a form of creativity into these

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Speaker 3: systems to help them with what's called hill climbing and

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Speaker 3: other things. Well, it's entirely possible that you could get

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Speaker 3: the system to break off on its own. It may

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Speaker 3: not be consciously aware in the sense that would satisfy

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Speaker 3: as psychologists, but enough to continue doing its own actions

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Speaker 3: to be very hard to fight. It could make copies

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Speaker 3: of itself, billions of copies in a couple of seconds,

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Speaker 3: and so I don't see an easy way to deal

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Speaker 3: with that. In I do have to credit the big

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Speaker 3: social media companies and I companies this week working with

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Speaker 3: the Biden administration to at least put forth a kind

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Speaker 3: of aspirational four page document. I just read it yesterday

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Speaker 3: about we're going to try to make these systems safer.

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Speaker 3: There's no mention by the way the effects of hallucination,

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Speaker 3: but at least acknowledging the problem. My understanding is that

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Speaker 3: the President is preparing an executive order on that just

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Speaker 3: to draw attention to it. But it's going way too fast.

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Speaker 2: But that idea of hallucination that would be again, it

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Speaker 2: goes back to a couple of the things that we've

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Speaker 2: already talked about. But so are you and you mentioned

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Speaker 2: and I think this is you know, a fair point.

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Speaker 2: Are you of the belief though, that there will be

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Speaker 2: a kind of sort of divine status that is given

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Speaker 2: to these systems once they go online or they develop

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Speaker 2: sophistication enough that people will turn to them and get

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Speaker 2: a direct, audible and or physical answer, something which often

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Speaker 2: eludes people after prayer where they will pray for something

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Speaker 2: and they don't have any sense, any better sense afterward

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Speaker 2: or what they were supposed to do. But do you

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Speaker 2: think that's what this could be?

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Speaker 3: Easily? There was an early version that is the Spielberg

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Speaker 3: Kubrick movie called Ai.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 3: If you remember that the kid is asking about his

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Speaker 3: mother and he gets an answer and he takes that.

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Speaker 3: But it reminds me of a colleague of mine who

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Speaker 3: asked a question years ago. We're talking about the singularity,

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Speaker 3: where machines get so smart we can't see beyond a

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Speaker 3: certain black hole like threshold. And he said, if you

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Speaker 3: speed it up a dog sprain, a dog has well

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Speaker 3: over a billion neurons, A sp it has almost ten billion,

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Speaker 3: I guess, and we have about one hundred billion neurons.

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Speaker 3: And comparison in a cockroach has a million a million

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Speaker 3: neurons and a good owl has a billion. But if

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Speaker 3: we speed up a dog spring and ask a question,

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Speaker 3: would we really care about what a dog has to say?

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Speaker 1: I doubt it.

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Speaker 3: Contrariwise, I think if we are the dog, which happens

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Speaker 3: in this kind of comparison on just neuron capacity, not

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Speaker 3: just so, I don't think the AI system would care

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Speaker 3: a lot about us and would hurt our stories too

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Speaker 3: many times to get much new out of it. But

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Speaker 3: I think we will come when the error rates fall,

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Speaker 3: and right now they're still pretty high. But like I said,

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Speaker 3: we already have some of these large language mark's getting

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Speaker 3: ninety percent on the uniform bar exam. I mean, that's

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Speaker 3: not an easy thing to do. And when it starts

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Speaker 3: getting ninety nine percent all the time, and at some

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Speaker 3: point courts will begin. The rules of evidence will I

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Speaker 3: think eventually be modified. I don't say courts to allow

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Speaker 3: this to enter. And there will be challenge, you know,

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Speaker 3: in order to introduce that, you know, in court, any

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Speaker 3: piece of evidence that there's a big fight that takes

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Speaker 3: plus usually don't see it on TV. But I think

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Speaker 3: it'd be like getting an expert admitted to court. They'll

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Speaker 3: be come back and forth questioning, and they'll admit them

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Speaker 3: in and and a lot of questions of fact will

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Speaker 3: initially come in an advisory away from the computer system,

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Speaker 3: the decision support system what we currently call it. But

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Speaker 3: I think as a practical matter, clearly ten twenty fifty,

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Speaker 3: one hundred years from now, I mean, if we continue

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Speaker 3: anything like the current right, we're likely to take that

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Speaker 3: as an effective digital gospel right.

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Speaker 2: And this concept of breaded circuss too that if a

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Speaker 2: system understood, really began to understand what it is that

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Speaker 2: motivates human beings, they might it might anticipate that and

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Speaker 2: give us give certain areas of the country a tax break.

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Speaker 2: They may give other areas. They may change the laws.

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Speaker 2: And this is where it's a Republican or Democrat that

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Speaker 2: they could they could it could become so troublesome that

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Speaker 2: it would be it would become very when it became

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Speaker 2: very likable. And that's what it doesn't have right now.

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Speaker 2: It seems to be very cold. The idea of AI.

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Speaker 2: There is not a friendly face on it. It doesn't smile,

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Speaker 2: it doesn't have a dog, you know, it doesn't wear

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Speaker 2: a hat. It's just whatever it is. It is, and

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Speaker 2: most people when they don't understand what something is, they

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Speaker 2: merely sort of push away from the table and say, well,

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Speaker 2: I'll never understand that. Wake me when you get into

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Speaker 2: bite sized chunks, and maybe I'll.

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Speaker 3: Take some of it. Let's call it digital sugar. Sugar

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Speaker 3: programs our brains inside there, rubbing our teeth and causing

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Speaker 3: all kinds of problems.

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