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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: I'm just about that Action bosson.

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Speaker 3: He is the silent warrior who stands where land meets horizon,

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Speaker 3: steadfast and unshakable, a.

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Speaker 2: City on a hill wait for all to see.

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Speaker 3: He is a feed of light floating in the dark

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Speaker 3: oil of night. Party is the very betsel of our freedom,

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Speaker 3: the champion of the fourth of July, the number one

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Speaker 3: ranked eater in the world.

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Speaker 2: Joy Just.

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Speaker 1: Hello everyone, and welcome to the Action Network Podcast. I'm

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Speaker 1: your host and Action Audio director Matt Mitchell.

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Speaker 2: Today we'll be.

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Speaker 1: Discussing my favorite event of the entire calendar year. We're

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Speaker 1: going to talk all things betting for the Nathans Hot

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Speaker 1: Dog Eating Contest taking.

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Speaker 2: Place as always on beautiful.

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Speaker 1: Coney Island on Independence.

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Speaker 2: Day this Friday, July fourth.

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Speaker 1: Joining me to do this once again is my colleague,

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Speaker 1: Action Predictive Analyst and multi time qualifier for this very event,

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Speaker 1: Nick Giffen. Doctor Nick, welcome back to the show, and

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Speaker 1: please remind our esteemed audience.

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Speaker 2: Who you picked last year at this event. Yeah.

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Speaker 4: Thanks, Matt, It's good to be back doing this again.

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Speaker 4: We've waited a whole year, almost a full calendar year,

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Speaker 4: for this, and in that calendar year. One year ago,

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Speaker 4: I picked Pat Bertoletti to win in the Joey Chestnut

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Speaker 4: less event, right, he didn't compete last year. It's a

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Speaker 4: Pat Pat Bertoletti on this podcast at double digit odds.

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Speaker 4: I think it was eleven to one to win, and hey,

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Speaker 4: he ended up eating fifty eight hot dogs and buns,

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Speaker 4: besting his competition. Second place was esper at fifty three,

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Speaker 4: so a five dog margin over the field for Pepper Letty.

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Speaker 1: So no surprise. Sixteen times Nathan's Hot Dog Contest champion

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Speaker 1: Joey Chestnut is the favorite, returning to the event, as

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Speaker 1: you mentioned, after a one year hiatus where he performed

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Speaker 1: a special one man event for Netflix in lieu of

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Speaker 1: Coney Island, allowing Nick here to cash that eleven to

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Speaker 1: one outright on for Letty. Nick and I were actually

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Speaker 1: fortunate enough to sit down with Joey Jaws Chestnut for

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Speaker 1: an exclusive interview that we released yesterday, and you can

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Speaker 1: hear that right here on this podcast. Feat It was

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Speaker 1: a delight. We love Joey. All the best of Joey

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Speaker 1: this weekend always. Now, okay, let's get the party started.

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Speaker 2: Nick.

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Speaker 1: As a reminder, the event's sponsor, Nathan's Famous founded on

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Speaker 1: Coney Island in nineteen sixteen. Their first official hot dog

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Speaker 1: contest was in nineteen sixty seven, won by four hundred

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Speaker 1: pound truck driver Walter Paul who ate a relatively Paul

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Speaker 1: Tree seventeen hot dogs in one hour. Times have changed, Nick,

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Speaker 1: But we'll start with the women's competition, led by Mickey Sudo,

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Speaker 1: who captured her record setting tenth Mustard belt as the

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Speaker 1: champion last year. Nick, what have you got on the

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Speaker 1: women's side.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, on the women's side, it is pretty much a

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Speaker 4: one horse race. It's Mickey Pseudo and Mickey Pseudo alone.

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Speaker 4: She has a stellar record in this competition, only not

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Speaker 4: winning in the last few years because of a pregnancy

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Speaker 4: missing the competition and that's where Michelle LESCo ended up

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Speaker 4: winning that year. But last year Mickey Pseudo set the

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Speaker 4: women's record with fifty one hot dogs and buns, So,

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Speaker 4: you know, right up there in the fifties with Bertoletti,

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Speaker 4: with James Esper with Webb, so a very stellar number.

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Speaker 4: So I think it's far and away Nicky Sudo as

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Speaker 4: the favorite. She's minus twenty five hundred wherever you can

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Speaker 4: find women's odds, so pretty tough to bet at market

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Speaker 4: because you know, it's not fun laying minus twenty five

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Speaker 4: hundred odds, But you can't really bet anybody else. But

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Speaker 4: what we can do is we can look at some

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Speaker 4: of these secondary competitors. We did talk about Michelle LESCo,

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Speaker 4: but also you know, we can look at Dominica D.

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Speaker 4: D Street Eats as she is called. She is from

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Speaker 4: the Seattle, Washington area. She qualified with twenty three and

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Speaker 4: a half hot dogs and buns, which is exactly how

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Speaker 4: many the runner up last year, Michelle LESCo had twenty

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Speaker 4: three and a half. So there is a matchup between

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Speaker 4: those two women at minus one fifteen each way. Michelle

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Speaker 4: LESCo has been trending down in her past four competitions.

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Speaker 4: She has eaten less in the Nathan's Hot Dog Contest

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Speaker 4: than the previous year, and with twenty three and a half,

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Speaker 4: if that downward trend continues, she could be under that

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Speaker 4: twenty three and a half number that Dominica d just

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Speaker 4: qualified with. So I think that's a very fair line

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Speaker 4: at minus one point fifteen each way in terms of

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Speaker 4: the head to head. But both women also have twenty

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Speaker 4: five and a half as their total for the line

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Speaker 4: over at ESPN Bets, so you know, I think that's

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Speaker 4: a spot where maybe we could look to go under

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Speaker 4: twenty five and a half, but there's always the iron

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Speaker 4: sharpens iron, and when they know they're fighting for second place,

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Speaker 4: it's gonna be pretty tough. So honestly, I just think

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Speaker 4: the women's competition this year is a pure pass that said,

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Speaker 4: I do have an angle on Mickey Pseudo, but it'll

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Speaker 4: be against the guys.

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Speaker 2: Ooh, I love it. That's a good tease.

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Speaker 1: I was gonna use iron sharpens iron later, but you

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Speaker 1: beat me to it. That is something to consider in

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Speaker 1: a lot of these matchups and even a lot of

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Speaker 1: these totals.

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Speaker 2: The guys have said repeatedly it is.

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Speaker 1: Like any competition when you're in a you know, when

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Speaker 1: you're in a horse race and you are in neck

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Speaker 1: and neck, you can draw something even deeper from yourself.

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Speaker 2: And you'll see those totals in flight.

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Speaker 1: We saw that for years with Kobayashi and Joey chuessed

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Speaker 1: up themselves at the highest tier.

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Speaker 2: But it happens at all sorts of tears.

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Speaker 1: People want to finish. You know they have a chance

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Speaker 1: for a third, they have a chance for second. If

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Speaker 1: you know they're not gonna win it, outright, you'll still

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Speaker 1: see them kind of sprinting to the finish. Okay, women's

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Speaker 1: competition out of the way, It's time to look to

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Speaker 1: the men's competition. The field, of course, led by sixteen

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Speaker 1: time champion and prohibitive favorite Joey Chestnut, who is anywhere

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Speaker 1: from minus thirteen fifty to minus twenty five hundred against

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Speaker 1: the field. Nick, I'm gonna get out of the way.

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Speaker 1: I know you've You've dove extremely deep. You've gotten ketchup

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Speaker 1: and mustard all over yourself figuratively speaking in the minds here,

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Speaker 1: Please tell us your breakdown of the men's competition.

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Speaker 4: Sure, well, first of all, honestly, again, I don't hate

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Speaker 4: Joey Chestnut at minus thirteen fifty at Vanduel, I think

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Speaker 4: that is a very fine number to bet him at, honestly,

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Speaker 4: So if you're one of those betters that likes to

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Speaker 4: just take whatever value you can get, I did some

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Speaker 4: analysis that shows at worst he should be minus two

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Speaker 4: thousand in terms of my analysis my research on this,

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Speaker 4: So I don't hate it. I'm you know, I don't

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Speaker 4: think it's a bet I'm recommending simply because most people

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Speaker 4: probably don't want to make that kind of an investment

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Speaker 4: on those odds, but I don't mind that.

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Speaker 2: But the real.

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Speaker 4: Competition, the real battle is going to be for second

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Speaker 4: place once again, between Patrick Bertoletti, between Jeffrey Esper, between

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Speaker 4: James Webb and Nick Wherry. Those are the big four

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Speaker 4: in terms of the next tier below Joey Chesnutt and

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Speaker 4: I did a lot of analysis on this. I scraped

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Speaker 4: all the data over the past year, since last year

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Speaker 4: is Nathan's hot Dog contest for all the different things,

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Speaker 4: whether it's strawberry shortcake, bloney bagels, hotcakes, pork rolls, these

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Speaker 4: guys have all competed in a bunch of competitions throughout

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Speaker 4: the year, and anytime at least three of those four

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Speaker 4: got together. I tracked the data and I was able

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Speaker 4: to compile head to head results between them, and from

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Speaker 4: that I was able to use you know, some maths,

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Speaker 4: some geometric means, some log five type data, all sorts

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Speaker 4: of things you know that we use in the analytics

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Speaker 4: world to strength of schedule adjustments.

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Speaker 2: I'm serious.

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Speaker 4: So I did the math here and if you go

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Speaker 4: over to DraftKings, they have winner without Joey chessnuts So

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Speaker 4: essentially second place, who is going to win the competition.

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Speaker 4: If you remove Joey Chestnuts result, and I have value

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Speaker 4: on Jeffrey Esper at plus two seventy five, I have

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Speaker 4: his fair odds right around plus two twenty five. So

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Speaker 4: multiple books have this DraftKings has the best price at

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Speaker 4: plus two seventy five, So if you want to shop

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Speaker 4: around anything longer than plus two twenty five, I have

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Speaker 4: as value on Jeffery Esper. I think we're getting a

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Speaker 4: discount here because in his qualifier he only ate forty

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Speaker 4: three hot dogs and buns, which is his lowest result

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Speaker 4: in many years. But he also didn't have competition. In

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Speaker 4: his qualifier. He finished twenty hot dogs ahead. That's kind

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Speaker 4: of the whole iron sharpens iron. Well, there was no

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Speaker 4: other iron there, so he didn't really need to push

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Speaker 4: himself that hard. So I think we're getting a bit

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Speaker 4: of a discount on Esper if we look in terms

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Speaker 4: of just head to head results versus these other guys.

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Speaker 4: Esper went fourteen and eight, whereas the only other person

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Speaker 4: with a positive record over the past year and head

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Speaker 4: to heads is Pat Bertoletti was fifteen and three, So

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Speaker 4: you know, I think this is a spot where Bertoletti

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Speaker 4: rightly is the favorite in the non chestnut market, but

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Speaker 4: he's a little too short at plus one thirty five

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Speaker 4: or even at plus one fifty, I have plus one

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Speaker 4: sixty five is fair on Bertoletti. So I think we

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Speaker 4: got to go to that next one, which for me

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Speaker 4: is Jeffrey Esper. So that's my first bet that I'm

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Speaker 4: making in this market. Curious your thoughts on a market

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Speaker 4: like that.

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Speaker 1: I'm a little concerned. Jeffrey esper nearly fIF years old.

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Speaker 1: Now he is a school teacher outside of Boston. Looks

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Speaker 1: like the kind of guy that would beat the shit

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Speaker 1: out of you in the parking lot of that school

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Speaker 1: if you.

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Speaker 2: If you crossed him.

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Speaker 1: And I'm into that kind of behavior, to be clear,

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Speaker 1: Any concern about backing a competitor of that age.

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Speaker 4: No, not really. You know again, I was tracking all

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Speaker 4: the different results, and you know, just last month, June fourteenth,

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Speaker 4: so you know, just even a couple of weeks ago,

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Speaker 4: Jeffrey Esper ate twenty two and a third pounds of

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Speaker 4: strawberry shortcake in eight minutes. That was more than three

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Speaker 4: pounds ahead of James Webb, more than four pounds ahead

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Speaker 4: of Nick Wherry. Now, Bert Letty did not compete in

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Speaker 4: that one, so that was, you know, a non burdleleddy

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Speaker 4: market as well. But Jeffrey Espert just a few weeks

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Speaker 4: ago dominated his competition in strawberry shortcake eating. So if

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Speaker 4: we want to talk fifty years old, sounds like he

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Speaker 4: still has.

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Speaker 2: At that age fifty. I love these guys. Okay, what

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Speaker 2: else you got, Nick?

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Speaker 4: So I mentioned in a little tease that I was

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Speaker 4: going to bring in Mickey Pseudo into the men's competition,

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Speaker 4: and that's because a lot of books are setting head

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Speaker 4: to head matchups for her against some of the guys,

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Speaker 4: and for me, Mickey Pseudo versus Nick Werry is the

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Speaker 4: one I am going to attack at DraftKings especially, I

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Speaker 4: was able to find this one. The dog line on

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Speaker 4: this one is Mickey Pseudo plus one and a half

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Speaker 4: Nick Werry minus one and a half, and it's minus

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Speaker 4: one fifteen each way. But there's also the money line,

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Speaker 4: I guess if you will, so that the dog line

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Speaker 4: was the spread, and then there's the money line Mickey

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Speaker 4: Pseudos plus one thirty on the money line. I like

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Speaker 4: both of those. Again. Tracking their results over the past

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Speaker 4: year since last year's Nathan's Hot Dog competition, Mickey Sudo

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Speaker 4: is five wins and five losses versus Nick Werry in

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Speaker 4: all competitions. That that means you'll fifty to fifty rate.

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Speaker 4: But when I also weigh it by their totals and

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Speaker 4: do a geometric mean of that, we get that Mickey

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Speaker 4: Pseudo is slightly slightly, just ever so slightly worse than

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Speaker 4: uh Nick Werry here. But I'm talking she's ninety eight

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Speaker 4: point eight five percent of the eater that Nick Wherry is.

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Speaker 4: So if you you know, take his dogline which is

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Speaker 4: forty seven and a half as is over under, and

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Speaker 4: then multiply that by ninety eight point eight five percent,

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Speaker 4: you get that Mickey Pseudo should be around forty six

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Speaker 4: point nine forty seven hot dogs, which is less than

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Speaker 4: that one and a half. Additionally, a lot of those competitions.

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Speaker 4: Only one of those ten competitions was hot dogs, and

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Speaker 4: that was last year's Nathan hot Dog Contest. If we

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Speaker 4: weigh the hot dog contest heavier, all of a sudden,

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Speaker 4: that gets even closer, and really it's like forty seven

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Speaker 4: and a half versus forty seven point three as the expectation.

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Speaker 4: So I think when you're getting plus one thirty on

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Speaker 4: something that's essentially a coin flip. You gotta take it. Really,

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Speaker 4: she should probably be plus one oh five, and then

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Speaker 4: you get a plus one and a half dog spread.

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Speaker 4: I think you got to take that as well at

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Speaker 4: minus one fifteen. So either Mickey Pseudo line that you

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Speaker 4: want to take, whether it's the spread or the money

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Speaker 4: line against Nick Wherry, I like that one.

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Speaker 1: Inter Gender geometric mean competitive eating breakdowns. You're not going

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Speaker 1: to hear this shit anywhere else on the internet. I

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Speaker 1: am enthralled by this argument. Mickey Pseudo is an absolute

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Speaker 1: demon at this competition. She takes incredible pride in her

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Speaker 1: record setting streak here, like you said, interrupted only.

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Speaker 2: By a year where she was giving birth. That tip

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Speaker 2: to her.

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Speaker 1: I will also point out whether this Friday on Coney

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Speaker 1: Island hot and very sunny. We heard directly from the

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Speaker 1: horse's mouth, Joey Chestnut, that he prefers warmer, hotter weather

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Speaker 1: because of its effect. It's a loosening effect on the muscles,

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Speaker 1: and that colder or windier weather is much harder as

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Speaker 1: you tighten up, and that is a that's a huge

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Speaker 1: challenge when you're trying to do something as insane as

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Speaker 1: you know, sixty plus hot dogs. So I will note

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Speaker 1: that some people will discuss the weather as being a

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Speaker 1: detriment in the heat and humidity. A lot of the

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Speaker 1: competitors view that as a positive, especially for an event

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Speaker 1: that at the end of the day only lasts a

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Speaker 1: few minutes. It's not like they're out there for six

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Speaker 1: hours eating hot dogs, nick anything else you've got on

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Speaker 1: the field.

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Speaker 4: Here, it's gonna be about the same conditions as last year.

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Speaker 4: Last year, the humidity was forecast more at like seventy

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Speaker 4: seventy five percent, but it ended up only being around

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Speaker 4: forty five fifty percent during the actual time of the event.

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Speaker 4: And one thing I did find is humidity does tend

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Speaker 4: to negatively impact, not heat. I didn't find anything on heat,

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Speaker 4: but humidity does negatively impact. But because now it's forecast

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Speaker 4: to be around that same forty five fifty percent this year,

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Speaker 4: I think we can see relative totals similar to last year,

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Speaker 4: very similar conditions. The only other fact it could be

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Speaker 4: pretty windy, and I don't really have an idea on

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Speaker 4: how that impacts things. Probably not much, but I would

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Speaker 4: assume we're gonna see similar totals to last year. You

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Speaker 4: get that are iron sharpens iron theory. I think we're

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Speaker 4: gonna have a heck of a battle for second place

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Speaker 4: in the men's competition. One other little nugget, one other

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Speaker 4: little maybe kind of hidden value, and I'm kind of

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Speaker 4: debating whether I should bet this or not. Is to

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Speaker 4: bet any other eater in the second place market, the

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Speaker 4: non Joey chestnut market, because Ricardo Corbucci from Brazil got

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Speaker 4: the international buy and he competed in this event last

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Speaker 4: year and he ate forty three hot dogs and buns,

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Speaker 4: which is only three point seventy five fewer than Nick Werry,

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Speaker 4: who's in that Big four. Well, Nick Werry's twelve to one.

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Speaker 4: You can get any other eater at eighteen to one

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Speaker 4: at Caesar Sportsbook. Don't think I love it, but I

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Speaker 4: don't hate it. I have seen Ricardo Corbucci eat forty

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Speaker 4: nine in ten minutes in a trial run last year,

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Speaker 4: so he has his own YouTube channel. He looks pretty strong,

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Speaker 4: So just somebody to keep an eye on as a

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Speaker 4: potential dark horse in that non Joey chestnut market. But really,

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Speaker 4: my favorite bets are Jeffrey Esper in the non Joey

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Speaker 4: chestnut market at plus two seventy five and Mickey pseudo

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Speaker 4: in matchups versus Nick Wherry, because I have them pretty

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Speaker 4: much coints.

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Speaker 1: Now, speaking of international eaters, last year, my pick was

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Speaker 1: over the total four Australian eater James Webb, which did hit.

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Speaker 1: I was interested in some James Webb matchups, but wanted.

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Speaker 2: To hear your point of view.

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Speaker 1: Of course, he's matched up most frequently with Esper, who

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Speaker 1: you're hot to trot on. So I have lost my

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Speaker 1: interest in James web in that category, but it does

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Speaker 1: remind me. Teaser for our interview with Joey Chestnut, Joey

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Speaker 1: referred to James Webb as an Australian shark because of

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Speaker 1: his exceptional to eat chicken wings. He has beaten Joey

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Speaker 1: soundly several times in chicken wing eating competitions, and Enjoy

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Speaker 1: credits that to exceptional form that James has in his

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Speaker 1: in his competitions in that specific competition, and so I

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Speaker 1: would I would caution people who are enamored with a

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Speaker 1: specific eater's performance outside of hot dogs in this very specific,

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Speaker 1: high profile event.

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Speaker 2: That is all I will say about that.

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Speaker 1: I am very excited to tail all of Nick's picks here. Nick,

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Speaker 1: any words of wisdom for our audience for their Independence Day.

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Speaker 4: Well, I think you should definitely be putting on the

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Speaker 4: competition and sweating it with us because it's going to

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Speaker 4: be awesome. To your point about James Web as well,

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Speaker 4: I definitely like him. My espert bet is more of

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Speaker 4: an upside bet because his average his medium has averaged

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Speaker 4: the number of times he's gone over under the fifty

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Speaker 4: and a half line. He's been under more than he's

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Speaker 4: been over that fifty and a half for Jeffrey Esper,

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Speaker 4: So I don't hate if you want an under, But

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Speaker 4: then this is kind of an upside play because we're saying,

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Speaker 4: what is this upside here? And he does have enough

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Speaker 4: upside to win the second place market, So i'd rather

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Speaker 4: get if he's gonna clear fifty and a half, he's

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Speaker 4: a good shot of taking down second place. So I'd

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Speaker 4: rather get plus two to seventy five on that than

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Speaker 4: minus one fifteen on nuclear fifty and a half. Right,

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Speaker 4: it doesn't it's not exactly perfectly comparable, but it's the

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Speaker 4: long change in odds there.

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Speaker 2: But I do like Web.

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Speaker 4: I think he's got a very strong shot to finish

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Speaker 4: second as well in terms of betting value for second

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Speaker 4: place he's just slightly minus ev, but he's the least

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Speaker 4: minus ev between him, Bertoletti and Nick Werry in terms

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Speaker 4: of the non esper bets there for that second place market.

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Speaker 4: So definitely don't mind James Webb. But everybody needs to

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Speaker 4: in July enjoy their July fourth watch the h competition

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Speaker 4: and let's see we can hit another plus money that

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Speaker 4: here to yours interrow.

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Speaker 1: And I will point out you should shop around for

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Speaker 1: this and every betting event always, And a good example

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Speaker 1: of that is you can find the total hot dogs

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Speaker 1: eaten market for Warry and Mickey Pseudo at an identical

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Speaker 1: forty six and a half minus one twelve to the

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Speaker 1: over at FanDuel right now. But you could get Pseudo

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Speaker 1: over wary on the money line at Draftings at plus

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Speaker 1: one thirty. Like that's as great. If you saw that

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Speaker 1: in an NFL game, you would immediately take advantage of

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Speaker 1: a comparable market in that regard, So always shop around

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Speaker 1: for the best number.

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Speaker 2: I wish all of you out there are.

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Speaker 1: Very happy and fun and safe and profitable. Independence Day

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Speaker 1: I will be on the West coast, so I can't

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Speaker 1: wait to make a room full of older relatives wake

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Speaker 1: up and turn on ESPN at seven forty five Pacific

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Speaker 1: time in the morning on Friday to watch the women's competition.

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Speaker 1: I'm sure that'll be a real crowd pleaser for a

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Speaker 1: bunch of old Irish Catholics. All right on, behalf of

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Speaker 1: Nick Giffon, I'm Matt Mitchell. Enjoy all of the funnest

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Speaker 1: Independence Day Nathan's famous hot dog eating contest from Coney Island,

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Speaker 1: and we'll see you back here next time on the

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Speaker 1: Action Network podcast The Rock Hot.

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Speaker 3: Wait she stands is not a rock, It is the

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Speaker 3: United States of America.

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Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

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Speaker 1: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

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00:20:36,359 --> 00:20:39,480
Speaker 1: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler