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Speaker 1: on Hoops toight here at the Volume. Happy Monday, everybody.
Speaker 1: Hope all of you guys are having a great start
Speaker 1: to your week. Got a jam pack show for you today.
Speaker 1: We had a bunch of great basketball games yesterday. We're
Speaker 1: gonna be breaking down two of them. Off the top,
Speaker 1: the Cleveland Cavaliers getting a big win on the road
Speaker 1: against the Milwaukee Bucks, kind of controlling that one throughout.
Speaker 1: Want to talk about some of the differences between those
Speaker 1: two teams and how it's led to their success and
Speaker 1: failures this year. Then we got an MVP showdown the
Speaker 1: first of two. We got another one tonight that will
Speaker 1: be breaking down in tomorrow's show. But the Denver Nuggets
Speaker 1: one on the road against the Oklahoma City Thunder, and
Speaker 1: the Thunder pretty much controlled that game throughout and ended
Speaker 1: up winning in dominant fashion. Late, we're gonna break that
Speaker 1: game down. Then at the tail end of the show,
Speaker 1: I want to hit on the last two Golden State
Speaker 1: Warriors games, talking about how good Steph has been of
Speaker 1: late as he puts on a show against the Brooklyn Nets.
Speaker 1: And then I want to talk about how Draymond Green
Speaker 1: and Jimmy Butler kind of stole the show down the
Speaker 1: stretch in a big win against the Detroit Pistons. You
Speaker 1: guys know the job before we get started. Subscribed to
Speaker 1: the Hoops Tonight YouTube channel so you don't miss any
Speaker 1: more of our videos. Follow me on Twitter at underscore
Speaker 1: JSNLT so you guys don't miss show announcements. Don't forget
Speaker 1: about a podcast for you where you get your podcast
Speaker 1: under Hoops Tonight. It's also super helpful if you leave
Speaker 1: a rating and a review on that front. We also
Speaker 1: have brand new social media feeds on Twitter, Instagram, and
Speaker 1: Facebook where we're releasing content throughout the year. Jackson's doing
Speaker 1: some amazing work on those channels. Make sure you guys
Speaker 1: follow us there. In the last but not least, keep
Speaker 1: dropping mail back questions in the YouTube comments. All of
Speaker 1: the mail bags have been kind of out of way
Speaker 1: because of all the trips that I've been going on
Speaker 1: this month, and I still have two more at the
Speaker 1: tail end of this month, so it's gonna get a
Speaker 1: little tricky. But we're gonna be doing a mail bag
Speaker 1: that I believe is releasing on Thursday this week that
Speaker 1: I'm recording on Friday, so you still have a couple
Speaker 1: more days to get in mail bag questions for that.
Speaker 1: All right, let's talk some basketball. So once again, every
Speaker 1: time I watch these kind of like middle tier teams
Speaker 1: in the league. You know, I've talked about this last
Speaker 1: night with Colin Coward, but like I kind of view
Speaker 1: the inner circle of the NBA as like five teams
Speaker 1: that I think have like a real chance to win
Speaker 1: the title, and in no particular order, because I'm gonna
Speaker 1: end up doing some stuff involving ordering them over the
Speaker 1: course of the next month. Jackson and I were talking
Speaker 1: this morning about doing very, very in depth breakdowns specifically
Speaker 1: on the inner circle contenders involving some film and stuff,
Speaker 1: so we're thinking about doing that over the course of
Speaker 1: the next month. But those five teams for me right
Speaker 1: now are in the Eastern Conference Boston and Cleveland, and
Speaker 1: in the Western Conference Oklahoma City, Denver, and the Los
Speaker 1: Angeles Lakers. If you look at those teams and you
Speaker 1: watch them play every single night, there's a level of
Speaker 1: seriousness on both ends of the floor and their execution
Speaker 1: and their attention to detail and just their overall pursuit
Speaker 1: of maximizing their talent and being the best basketball team
Speaker 1: that they can be. And literally as soon as you
Speaker 1: go below that, it's a drop off. Even with a
Speaker 1: team that has a pretty damn good record like the
Speaker 1: New York Knicks, they've been so inconsistent with their defensive
Speaker 1: execution this year. Teams like Milwaukee, teams like Minnesota. There's
Speaker 1: so many teams in that group that have been very,
Speaker 1: very inconsistent in their attention to detail. The one team
Speaker 1: that's kind of below there that I'm keeping my eye
Speaker 1: on because I don't really know where they're gonna fit
Speaker 1: once we see a larger sample of them playing some
Speaker 1: tougher teams as the Golden State Warriors. I think they
Speaker 1: have a chance to enter into the inner circle. There
Speaker 1: are some teams in that group that I think I
Speaker 1: am keeping my eye on over the course of the
Speaker 1: final month to see, but those are the five teams
Speaker 1: that I see, and when you go beyond that, there's
Speaker 1: a pretty substantial drop off in terms of just a
Speaker 1: level of serious basket caket ball that they play. I
Speaker 1: thought it was really interesting as I started to dig
Speaker 1: through the numbers, like, if you look at the margins,
Speaker 1: these are the areas where all of the good teams
Speaker 1: are always good. The margins are the little details that suck.
Speaker 1: They're hard to do, but they're such an important part
Speaker 1: of winning basketball games, for instance, taking care of the
Speaker 1: basketball and making sure you don't give up points off
Speaker 1: of turnovers. The Thunder, the Calves, and the Celtics are
Speaker 1: all top five and opponent points off of turnovers, and
Speaker 1: the Lakers are top ten. Giving up points off of
Speaker 1: offensive rebounds, the Calves and Celtics are both in the
Speaker 1: top ten. The Thunder have always been a bad defensive
Speaker 1: rebounding team, that's their achilles heel, so they're out of
Speaker 1: that group, but the Calves and Celtics top ten, and
Speaker 1: the Lakers since January fifteenth, when they kind of became
Speaker 1: a serious team. They're seventh in that department giving up
Speaker 1: fast break points. The Calves, the Celtics, and the Thunder
Speaker 1: are all in the top eleven in limiting opponent's fast breakpoints.
Speaker 1: This is the lakers Achilles Heel's where they always get beat.
Speaker 1: They're unathletic in transition at times, cleaning the glasses. Overall
Speaker 1: transition defense stat, the Calves, the Celtics, and the Thunder
Speaker 1: are all top ten. The Lakers are top ten since
Speaker 1: January fifteenth. Makes in the restricted area allowed so giving
Speaker 1: up easy baskets right underneath the rim. The Calves, Celtics,
Speaker 1: and Thunder are all top ten. The Lakers are seventh
Speaker 1: since January fifteenth. Total number of contested shots this year.
Speaker 1: This is a hustle stat on NBA dot Com. The Calves,
Speaker 1: the Thunder, and the Celtics are all in the top four.
Speaker 1: These are non negotiables. If you want to be a
Speaker 1: serious basketball team, you have to be committed to running
Speaker 1: the floor in transition, making contact on box outs, competing
Speaker 1: for contested rebounds, making rotations, putting your body on the line,
Speaker 1: making extra efforts contesting shots. These are non negotiables, and
Speaker 1: they're hard. I get it. There's a reason why there's
Speaker 1: such a huge swath of the league that's bad at
Speaker 1: this stuff on a nightly basis, because it's eighty two
Speaker 1: games and you're all a bunch of million and it's
Speaker 1: really really hard to get yourself to compete at that
Speaker 1: level in a night in a night out basis. That said,
Speaker 1: like I said, it's a non negotiable if you want
Speaker 1: to get to the finish line, if you want to
Speaker 1: get De Larry O'Brian Trophy. Every time I watched the Bucks,
Speaker 1: they seem to be heavily lacking in these areas. They
Speaker 1: are mediocre to bad and every single one of those
Speaker 1: statistical categories that I listed, except for defensive rebounding. It
Speaker 1: was jarring again to watch as the Calves just dominated
Speaker 1: this game by out running the Bucks all over the floor.
Speaker 1: Twenty four easy points in transition, countless possessions where they
Speaker 1: would defend well and get a stop and rebound and
Speaker 1: run out the other way and get an easy one
Speaker 1: against a Bucks team that wasn't willing to run even
Speaker 1: in the half court. It's the same sort of concept,
Speaker 1: whether it was Darius Garland or Donovan Mitchell or somebody
Speaker 1: else creating that initial advantage. The Calves just sliced and
Speaker 1: diced the Bucks defense with these beautiful driving kick sequences
Speaker 1: that often ended in wide open looks for very good shooters.
Speaker 1: You could literally see them repeatedly knifing through the lane,
Speaker 1: not just on that initial drive but on closeouts, and
Speaker 1: as a result, they're able to grow that advantage so
Speaker 1: that first close out's only a little bit of a
Speaker 1: close out, that second close out's more of a close out,
Speaker 1: the third one no chance the dudes wide open. The
Speaker 1: Calves generated twenty two unguarded catch and shoot jump shots
Speaker 1: in this game. The Milwaukee Bucks generated just nine. That's
Speaker 1: the difference. The Calves have this beautiful ability to slice
Speaker 1: and dice defenses for these super high quality catch and
Speaker 1: shoot looks and at the same time, on the other
Speaker 1: end of the floor keep their defense out of rotation
Speaker 1: against Milwaukee, and it's not just the commitment to running,
Speaker 1: it's the commitment off the ball on defense to tracking
Speaker 1: shooters being sharp with your closeouts. Cleveland was so attentive
Speaker 1: and sharp. Every catch and shoot look for Milwaukee felt
Speaker 1: like it was smothered with a quick and reactive closeout.
Speaker 1: How many times did you see Torrian Prince in the
Speaker 1: game kind of lingering around five six feet away from
Speaker 1: Max Struce and just a quick swing pass and Max
Speaker 1: Struce knocks down a shot. How many times did you
Speaker 1: see Brook Lopez and Janisantana Kumpo just drifting off of
Speaker 1: Evan Mobley and not in position to offer a closeout
Speaker 1: as Evan Mobley made them pay knocking down that catch
Speaker 1: and shoot on the weak side. Prince in particular had
Speaker 1: a really enough rough night in this regard, but as
Speaker 1: a team, the Bucks were not attentive in their off
Speaker 1: ball defense. That's how you end up with such a
Speaker 1: huge chasm in the overall number of wide open catch
Speaker 1: and shoot shots that they generated. The Bucks have a
Speaker 1: lot of talent, but you can't even get to the
Speaker 1: point where you're able to weaponize that talent until you're
Speaker 1: willing to commit to the hard work that is consistent
Speaker 1: winning basketball that is required to get to that level.
Speaker 1: There are some realities with the Bucks regarding their age
Speaker 1: in overall foot speed. This is a size team, not
Speaker 1: a speed team. We're gonna talk about the difference between
Speaker 1: the two here in a minute, but at the same
Speaker 1: time every time I watch them. There's just so much
Speaker 1: fat that can be trimmed simple transition defense principles like
Speaker 1: stopping the ball, stopping the basket, and getting matched up.
Speaker 1: There's a big one late in the game where Tori
Speaker 1: and Prince left a wide open shooter right at the
Speaker 1: top of the key. The on defense in the half
Speaker 1: court like simple ideas like making sure that when you're
Speaker 1: in help side defense, positioning yourself in a way where
Speaker 1: you can see man and ball, and make sure that
Speaker 1: if that pass goes, you're already in the close out
Speaker 1: while the ball's in the air and you're there on
Speaker 1: the catch. These are details that don't necessarily depend on
Speaker 1: their overall team speed that can be cleaned up that
Speaker 1: they just haven't made the requisite effort to do so. Now,
Speaker 1: getting to the game itself, I want to talk about
Speaker 1: how the combination of speed and jump shooting is what
Speaker 1: actually allows the Cleveland Cavaliers to generate so many quality shots.
Speaker 1: This has been the best offense in the NBA this year.
Speaker 1: They're actually almost three points per one hundred possessions ahead
Speaker 1: of the second place Boston Celtics. They're the only team
Speaker 1: in the league getting over one offensive rating. The Caves
Speaker 1: offense is unbelievable. Now, Like we talked about earlier, there's
Speaker 1: a difference between size and speed. There are two easy
Speaker 1: ways to get the defense into rotation through overwhelming speed
Speaker 1: and overwhelming size. For overwhelming size, think like Jokicchure, guys
Speaker 1: like Lebron, James Luka, don Should, Chason Tatum, some of
Speaker 1: these bigger, stronger players. They find a defender that's too
Speaker 1: small to guard them, then they pressure the rim until
Speaker 1: they get easy twos, or they draw in that second defender.
Speaker 1: Speed works the exact same way when you have guards
Speaker 1: that through transition or through ball screens against switches, whatever
Speaker 1: it is. When they can consistently get screaming downhill towards
Speaker 1: the rim, they either are going to get layups or
Speaker 1: they're going to draw in multiple defenders. This is the
Speaker 1: part of the Caves roster construct that has really shown
Speaker 1: through this year. And for the record, I was originally
Speaker 1: a couple of years ago completely out on the Darius Garland,
Speaker 1: Donovan Mitchell Perry as like a foundation for the Caves.
Speaker 1: Why because it's two small guards, and when you're building
Speaker 1: around two small guards, it just presents so many issues
Speaker 1: for you on the defensive glass and just on the
Speaker 1: defensive end in general. And by the way, they still
Speaker 1: occasionally have rebounding issues and they still occasionally have defense issues.
Speaker 1: But as Darius Garland has gotten healthy this year and
Speaker 1: as he's blossomed into this like super high level guard,
Speaker 1: we've gotten to see the other side of that dynamic,
Speaker 1: which is that they do have overwhelming speed. Garland this year,
Speaker 1: healthy with his legs underneath him, has been one of
Speaker 1: my favorite players to watch in the league this year
Speaker 1: because of his combination of speed and handle in shot
Speaker 1: making and playmaking, which gives him the ability to get
Speaker 1: wherever he wants to get on the floor. His probing
Speaker 1: and transition off the dribble and in the half court
Speaker 1: is responsible for so much of Cleveland's offensive success. The
Speaker 1: Cavs offense all year has been about two points better
Speaker 1: per one hundred possessions when Darius Garland is on the
Speaker 1: floor versus off, Donovan Mitchell brings the same thing. He's
Speaker 1: not at the same level of quickness that Darius Garland
Speaker 1: is at, but he's close, and he's bigger, and he's
Speaker 1: more vertically athletic, and he's a better shot maker and
Speaker 1: he's got like a bunch of these really fancy gatherer moves,
Speaker 1: like he's been putting on a clinic of that like
Speaker 1: windmill over the top gather that Dwayne Wade popularized, and
Speaker 1: then he's brought back the sham god with a vengeance
Speaker 1: this year. He had another nasty one the other night.
Speaker 1: Darius or Donovan Mitchell's ball handling in the middle of
Speaker 1: the floor has been unbelievable this year, but he also
Speaker 1: has an amazing ability to get wherever he wants on
Speaker 1: the floor. That's the initial first step for any driving
Speaker 1: kick sequence. You've got to generate that initial advantage that
Speaker 1: compromises the defense and generates those kickout opportunities for your
Speaker 1: spot up guys. From there, they just have a bunch
Speaker 1: of guys who are awesome at playing driving kick basketball.
Speaker 1: Max Struz Lightning quick release, can do it on the
Speaker 1: move and is a really good driving kick player, can
Speaker 1: make basic driving kick reads. Dean Wade is good at
Speaker 1: it too. DeAndre Hunter has been brilliant so far as
Speaker 1: a CAV as a spot up guy, as a guy
Speaker 1: who can do some advanced in the mid range attacking closeouts.
Speaker 1: Ti Jerome is good at it. Sam Merrill's good at it.
Speaker 1: Mitchell and Garland can both do it when they're off
Speaker 1: the ball. Just give you an idea. Here are some
Speaker 1: spot up efficiency numbers for Calves players according to Synergy.
Speaker 1: DeAndre Hunter one point three seven points per possession. That's outrageous.
Speaker 1: Ty Jerome one point three to six points per possession.
Speaker 1: That's outrageous. Craig Porter, obviously in a smaller role, one
Speaker 1: point two to eight points per possession. Max Streu's one
Speaker 1: point twenty four, Donovan Mitchell one point one eight, Sat
Speaker 1: Marrill one point one five. They have six players logging
Speaker 1: over one point one five points per possession and spot
Speaker 1: up situations. As a team, they get one point one
Speaker 1: one points per any spot up possession. Only the Celtics
Speaker 1: in the NBA are better at converting spot up possessions
Speaker 1: than the Cleveland Cavaliers, and they generate so many of
Speaker 1: them on the strength of their speed. It's that combination
Speaker 1: speed which is necessary to consistently get the defense in
Speaker 1: rotation and then having players that can extend advantages and
Speaker 1: pay them off even they're bigs. Evan Mobley last night
Speaker 1: burned Giannis and Brooke on skip passes by hitting weak
Speaker 1: side threes. He's shooting thirty seven percent from on catch
Speaker 1: and shoot threes this year. That is helping. Jared Allen
Speaker 1: provides his own kind of spacing as a short range
Speaker 1: shot maker. There's a play yesterday where Darius Garland was
Speaker 1: driving through the lane and Jared ended up like kind
Speaker 1: of right outside the right block, and Darius ran into
Speaker 1: a bunch of help and just kind of dumped it
Speaker 1: off to Jared Allen, and Jared Allen just stuck a
Speaker 1: little left handed floater like six feet from the basket.
Speaker 1: In all year long, he's been deadly on hooks and floaters.
Speaker 1: He provides his own kind of spacing in that way.
Speaker 1: It's a principle that works for them in both the
Speaker 1: half court and in transition. It makes them nearly impossible
Speaker 1: to guard. And it's why they've been head and shoulders
Speaker 1: above the rest of the field on offense this year.
Speaker 1: The Celtics are in second place three points fewer per
Speaker 1: one hundred possessions. That's how ahead of the field their
Speaker 1: offense has been. Yeah, as we've talked about, margins shrink
Speaker 1: when you get to the postseason. I saw a crazy
Speaker 1: stat this morning when I was digging through some old
Speaker 1: NBA data, Five of the last seven NBA teams to
Speaker 1: win at least sixty games or to win at a
Speaker 1: sixty win pace in the two shortened seasons in twenty
Speaker 1: twenty and twenty twenty one, five of the last seven
Speaker 1: of the teams to accomplish those feats failed to win
Speaker 1: their conference in the playoffs. Only one of those five
Speaker 1: losers made it out of the second round. The reason
Speaker 1: is simple, By the way, the two exceptions there are
Speaker 1: the twenty twenty Lakers and last year's Boston Celtics. The
Speaker 1: reason why this happens is you're almost exclusively in the
Speaker 1: playoffs facing elite locked in defenses that have done extensive
Speaker 1: game planning, and as the officiating loosens up and the
Speaker 1: game becomes very physical, all of that easy dribble penetration
Speaker 1: becomes harder to come by. In the half court. It
Speaker 1: gets harder to get to your spot, and the catch
Speaker 1: and shoot threes get harder to knock down because everyone's
Speaker 1: more tired from being in that super physical environment. The
Speaker 1: game actually shifts in the playoffs heavily towards each individual
Speaker 1: matchup and how well each team can guard each other
Speaker 1: in the half court again. Five out of the last
Speaker 1: seven teams to do what Cleveland's doing, to do what
Speaker 1: Oklahoma City is doing, failed to make it out of
Speaker 1: their conference. Four out of those seven failed to make
Speaker 1: it out of the second round. That is a trend
Speaker 1: that Cleveland has to find a way to reverse, and
Speaker 1: it's going to come down to guys knocking down shots
Speaker 1: at the same rate they did in the regular season
Speaker 1: and Darius Garland and Donovan Mitchell continually being able to
Speaker 1: generate those advantages and once again finding ways to make
Speaker 1: sure that you can prevent specific matchups from causing you
Speaker 1: problems when you get into the in a playoff series.
Speaker 1: For instance, we talked about the Celtics Cavs series a
Speaker 1: Celtics Calves game the other night. The ability to attack
Speaker 1: Sam Hauser in the half court in crunch time that
Speaker 1: won't be there, So it'll be about can Jason Tatum
Speaker 1: and Jaylen Brown do a better job of attacking Garland
Speaker 1: and Tatum is comfortable against both Allen and Mobley as well,
Speaker 1: are they going to be able to attack those guys
Speaker 1: better than Cleveland can attack Derek White, Al Horford, Chris
Speaker 1: aps Porzingis in his drop coverages whatever it may be.
Speaker 1: That is the battle. That's the chess match that ultimately
Speaker 1: is going to determine who wins the title, not which
Speaker 1: team had the better offensive rating in the regular season,
Speaker 1: which team had the higher win percentage. That is what
Speaker 1: happens in NBA history, and that is why a lot
Speaker 1: of these teams that dominate the regular season end up
Speaker 1: losing in the postseason. It doesn't matter what you accomplished
Speaker 1: in the eighty two. It comes down to the matchups.
Speaker 1: Not to be clear, the team that wins the title
Speaker 1: is almost always in the upper echelon of teams, basically always,
Speaker 1: so there is a mandatory minimum of a commitment to
Speaker 1: excellence that you have to have, and all of those
Speaker 1: teams had that. But what ends up happening are there
Speaker 1: are these teams, usually in that second tier, usually that
Speaker 1: don't have quite the sixty win pace, but they're in
Speaker 1: the mid fifties or so that were dead serious all year.
Speaker 1: But maybe they're a little older, maybe they're a little slower,
Speaker 1: and they get run off the floor a bunch of
Speaker 1: times in the regular season, but they get into the postseason,
Speaker 1: they get their shit together. The Vets leverage their athleticism
Speaker 1: and it gets tougher, and that's the challenge that Cleveland
Speaker 1: has to overcome when the margins shrink and it becomes
Speaker 1: about Garland and Mitchell matchup attacking versus a different team
Speaker 1: matchup attacking them. How can they hold up. I think
Speaker 1: they're gonna hold up really well against everybody except for
Speaker 1: Boston out in the East, and ultimately that's the challenge
Speaker 1: and nothing else really matters until we get to that point.
Speaker 1: A couple of the shoutouts from the Bucks game again,
Speaker 1: I thought Max Struce was just awesome, and I thought
Speaker 1: he kicked Torrey in Prince's ass and that was a
Speaker 1: significant swing factor in this game. I also thought the
Speaker 1: Caves defended Damian Lillard extreme well. Isaacacorro in particular, did
Speaker 1: a really nice job. His shifts were excellent in this game.
Speaker 1: I also thought it was just a great example of
Speaker 1: how devastating Cleveland's driving kick attack can be in the
Speaker 1: sense that no player on the team scored over twenty points.
Speaker 1: Darius Carland and Donovan Mitchell were both broke on their
Speaker 1: pull up threes, and it just didn't matter because they
Speaker 1: just picked Milwaukee apart for wide open catch and shoot
Speaker 1: threes for their role players. Who's scoring big in the
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Speaker 1: b Ball. All right, let's move on a Nuggets thunder.
Speaker 1: This is a really fun MVP showdown. It started off
Speaker 1: super high energy and a lot of shot attempts because
Speaker 1: the thunder we're running a lot of single coverage against
Speaker 1: Jokic with Hartenstein, so both guys were getting a bunch
Speaker 1: of shot ups. Shaye and Yokic attempted twenty one shots
Speaker 1: between the two of them in the first quarter. It
Speaker 1: was kind of crazy and it was funny too, because
Speaker 1: neither guy could make a three point shot to save
Speaker 1: their life, but they were getting them up. Like Shaye
Speaker 1: is so good at driving to the basket that when
Speaker 1: he turns that right shoulder and just does that hard
Speaker 1: little step back move, he can get a good look
Speaker 1: from three literally whenever he wants. And Yokic can get
Speaker 1: one whenever he wants just by popping out of ball
Speaker 1: screens or spacing above the key because he's generally being
Speaker 1: guarded by really big players that are defending in some
Speaker 1: sort of drop coverage and he's just gonna be wide
Speaker 1: open every time he pops out. Those threes were there,
Speaker 1: they were just both missing them. There was a lot
Speaker 1: of talk about Jokic's elbow and his jump shot in
Speaker 1: the game, and I remember a similar conversation happening last
Speaker 1: year when Yokic's jump shot was struggling surrounding his wrist.
Speaker 1: And again, I'm not debating whether or not Yokic is
Speaker 1: actually hurt. I'm sure he is. But here's the thing,
Speaker 1: regardless of whether or not it's an injury, him making
Speaker 1: that shot is vitally important to the ceiling of this team. Okay, See,
Speaker 1: he was doing an awesome job against Yo kicch in
Speaker 1: this game of swarming him on rolls, going under on
Speaker 1: inverted ball screens, and basically daring Jokic to make above
Speaker 1: the break threes. You know you've seen it before, Like
Speaker 1: they'll okay, see will come from the weak side with
Speaker 1: guys like JDub or Shay just swiping over the top,
Speaker 1: and they got these long arms and they'll just go
Speaker 1: at these bigs when they catch on the roll and
Speaker 1: just swarm them and make life really difficult for them. There.
Speaker 1: Yokic had an uncharacteristic, uncharacteristic poor shooting game because he
Speaker 1: had to drop back in those ball screens and start
Speaker 1: popping above the break, and he just couldnt knock him down.
Speaker 1: That's his counter to that coverage. When they're swarming him
Speaker 1: on rolls, he'll pop. And here's the thing. When he's
Speaker 1: hitting forty five percent of his threes, that's one point
Speaker 1: three to five points per possession. That's untenable for the defense.
Speaker 1: Now you're chasing him off the line, he's rumbling downhill
Speaker 1: and he's attacking closeouts and you're in trouble. But here's
Speaker 1: the problem. Over the last sixteen games, Yo Kids' shooting
Speaker 1: just thirty two point nine percent from three. And this
Speaker 1: is the thing with the elbow. I'm sure the elbow
Speaker 1: is not helping things at this point, but we are
Speaker 1: now on almost a fourth of the season where he's
Speaker 1: back to shooting the ball extremely poorly. Again, it's just
Speaker 1: something to keep an eye on. Again, that's what happened
Speaker 1: in the Minnesota series, defending Yogics by daring him to shoot,
Speaker 1: and his inability to knock down those three point shots. Again,
Speaker 1: it's just something to keep an eye on. Hopefully it's
Speaker 1: just a small trend in the season that he can
Speaker 1: kick before we get to April. But this game was
Speaker 1: just a complete and total outclassing by the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Speaker 1: They shot better from two, they shot better from three,
Speaker 1: They got to the line more, they shot better when
Speaker 1: they got to the line. They out rebounded Denver by eight,
Speaker 1: They had more assists, they had fewer turnovers, they had
Speaker 1: more points off turnovers, they had more points in the paint.
Speaker 1: It was like total domination. I thought Shay and Jadub
Speaker 1: just eviscerated Denver's man to man defense with their ability
Speaker 1: to get downhill. You know, we've talked a lot about
Speaker 1: Jokic in his defense at the level of ball screens,
Speaker 1: but they don't have much in the way of perimeter
Speaker 1: containment either, just in terms of their guard defenders. Shaye
Speaker 1: right away from the start of this game made it
Speaker 1: perfectly clear that he can drive past Christian Brown whenever
Speaker 1: he wants. Really, the only guy I thought that kind
Speaker 1: of made Shaye uncomfortable was Russ, who did some really
Speaker 1: nice work with physicality and back pressure, and he actually
Speaker 1: forced him into some pretty bad misses. But like everyone else,
Speaker 1: he was just going by whenever he wanted. And in
Speaker 1: ball screens, Jokic had a couple of different coverages he
Speaker 1: was using in this game. He's either coming all the
Speaker 1: way up to the level or he's sitting in a
Speaker 1: deeper drop, and none of it worked. When he was
Speaker 1: in the deeper drop, Shae could just get wherever he
Speaker 1: wanted in the mid range. And Shae didn't shoot well
Speaker 1: from three in this game, but he was six for
Speaker 1: twelve on mid range pull ups. And then when Yokic
Speaker 1: came up to the level, he'd just go around it,
Speaker 1: either by splitting the ball screen or like in and
Speaker 1: out dribble and make that aggressive dribble past him, Shay
Speaker 1: was just picking them apart. I thought j Dub was
Speaker 1: brilliant in the second half. He did some great work
Speaker 1: against Yo kitchen ball screens in the early third quarter.
Speaker 1: But he was one of the guys who really helped
Speaker 1: the Thunder crack Denver zone. The Thunder eviscerated Denver's man
Speaker 1: demand defense in the half court in this game, they
Speaker 1: got one point two to three points per half court possession.
Speaker 1: A one to twenty three offensive rating in the half
Speaker 1: court is outrageous. Denver's man and man defense could not
Speaker 1: guard Oklahoma City. So Mike Malone in that second half
Speaker 1: go zone and it gets him back into the game.
Speaker 1: They run zone for seven possessions in the third quarter.
Speaker 1: In the thunderscore zero points. They couldn't get dribble penetration.
Speaker 1: They were generating these kind of mediocre catch and shoot
Speaker 1: looks on the perimeter off of swing passes, so Denver
Speaker 1: worked their way back into the game. I thought Tim
Speaker 1: Legler is just an absolute legend, and I've really enjoyed
Speaker 1: him being on call on the call in these games lately.
Speaker 1: He was doing a great job of explaining how when
Speaker 1: the zone is there, it contains dribble penetration, which was
Speaker 1: the specific problem that a Denver was having with Oklahoma
Speaker 1: City all game long. But in the fourth quarter, the
Speaker 1: Thunder found a way to penetrate the zone screens out
Speaker 1: the top and then just beating the man in front
Speaker 1: of you and getting into the middle of the zone
Speaker 1: where everybody reacted, where they generated higher quality catch and
Speaker 1: shoot looks. J Dubb did this several times. Alex Crusoe
Speaker 1: had a nice driving kick to the left corner as well.
Speaker 1: As a result of that, they were able to generate
Speaker 1: higher quality catch and shoot looks. Then they started popping
Speaker 1: the ball around the perimeter. They had a really nice
Speaker 1: dunk that they got for Isaiah Hartenstein by moving the
Speaker 1: ball around a bunch of times, getting Denver's zone moving
Speaker 1: and Jokic had to rotate out and chet just threw
Speaker 1: a beautiful pass from the top of the key to Hartenstein.
Speaker 1: He got a dunk. On eight possessions of zone to
Speaker 1: start the fourth quarter. The Thunder scored fourteen points and
Speaker 1: that caused Mike Malone to bail on that too. Then
Speaker 1: Shay comes back in and closes the deal with a
Speaker 1: bunch of buckets. He's another mid range jump shot and
Speaker 1: pick and roll. He had a nasty hesitation move on
Speaker 1: Jamal Murray where he just kind of looked at the
Speaker 1: rim as he went forward right hand left side layup
Speaker 1: for another bucket, and then he had a step back
Speaker 1: three at the top of the key. He finally made
Speaker 1: one that ended up being the dagger in this game,
Speaker 1: and this ended up being an absolute blowout as the
Speaker 1: Thunder one one twenty seven to one ZHO three. I
Speaker 1: want to talk a little bit about MVP and about
Speaker 1: how this game kind of fits into that in tonight's
Speaker 1: rematch as well, but before we do that, I want
Speaker 1: to talk a little bit about Jalen Williams, who's been
Speaker 1: on an absolute tear. He had twenty six, nine and
Speaker 1: eight last night. In his last nineteen games, he's getting
Speaker 1: twenty three points per game, five rebounds, and five assists
Speaker 1: on fifty nine percent true shooting. Not bad for a
Speaker 1: twenty three year old, right. He's been one of the
Speaker 1: best defensive players in the league over that span as well.
Speaker 1: He's just kind of like the prototypical Swiss Army knife forward,
Speaker 1: which is one of my favorite archetypes in the league.
Speaker 1: He's big and strong, He's a great athlete, He's a
Speaker 1: legit shooter. He had a rough start to this season
Speaker 1: jump shooting, but he's been over forty percent from three
Speaker 1: in this span, and he was fantastic last year. He's
Speaker 1: a legit on ball creator. He can shoot off the dribble,
Speaker 1: he can score from all three levels. He's way ahead
Speaker 1: of where most forwards are as playmakers at this phase
Speaker 1: of his career. Like so many of these forwards can't.
Speaker 1: They're like one to one assist the turnover guys. You
Speaker 1: can count on j Dubb to just be another level
Speaker 1: above as a playmaker at the forward position than most
Speaker 1: guys are. He's just kind of a natural at it. Honestly,
Speaker 1: I tend to think a lot of that playmaking talent
Speaker 1: is natural. And he's a very good defensive player. You
Speaker 1: can guard multiple positions, he can defend both on and
Speaker 1: off the ball, and he's a good defensive rebounder. Now,
Speaker 1: the next step for him is becoming a reliable secondary
Speaker 1: ball handling option in the postseason context. It can't turn
Speaker 1: into Shay's got to make all the shots. That's where
Speaker 1: they get into issues, right, But he's well on his
Speaker 1: way to that point. So I'm going to say the
Speaker 1: same thing that I said when we were talking about Cleveland.
Speaker 1: Five of the last seven teams to win at least
Speaker 1: sixty games in a season or to win at a
Speaker 1: sixty game pace in the shortened seasons failed to win
Speaker 1: their conference in the playoffs. Four of those five teams
Speaker 1: lost in the second round or And the reason why,
Speaker 1: like we talked about earlier, is margins become less of
Speaker 1: a separator. Everyone is really good, defenses are really good,
Speaker 1: the game planning is incredible, and now it becomes about
Speaker 1: how do you match up against this team? Nothing else
Speaker 1: matters For two weeks you're playing against each other. It's
Speaker 1: going to denigrate down into half court basketball. It's going
Speaker 1: to get super physical, and it's going to come down
Speaker 1: to matchups. Okama City is going to run into the
Speaker 1: same problem they ran into last year, role players making
Speaker 1: catch and shoot shots. And is Jalen Williams going to
Speaker 1: be able to be that legitimate secondary option to help
Speaker 1: carry weight for Shae Kills with Alexander. That is the
Speaker 1: trend they're going to have to overcome if they are
Speaker 1: going to beat that trend. Or Five of the last
Speaker 1: seven teams to win at this pace have failed to
Speaker 1: have success in the postseason. A couple of things. I
Speaker 1: want to get to the Denver front and talk a
Speaker 1: little bit about the MVP race. So we already talked
Speaker 1: about the MVP race in our last show, but yesterday
Speaker 1: was a strong statement from Shay drops forty picks apart
Speaker 1: Denver's defense. Despite a poor three point shooting game, I
Speaker 1: thought he had a good defensive game as well. He's
Speaker 1: up to minus five hundred on DraftKings to win the
Speaker 1: award after last night's game. But these same two teams
Speaker 1: play again tonight in Oklahoma City. If Yo Kich is
Speaker 1: gonna get back into the race, he's gonna have to
Speaker 1: win tonight, and he's gonna have to look clearly better
Speaker 1: than Shay in the process. So what can Denver do
Speaker 1: to flip the script tonight? A couple things. One, I
Speaker 1: thought yokichs at the level coverages were effective when he
Speaker 1: contained the ball. There were a couple times where he
Speaker 1: was late up to the level and Shaye was able
Speaker 1: to split him or make it in and out dribble
Speaker 1: and go the other way. He gave up a little
Speaker 1: too much dribble penetration on some of those looks. But
Speaker 1: if he gets up to the level quickly and forces
Speaker 1: Shaye to not get downhill but to take a retreat dribble.
Speaker 1: Shay struggles compared to most of his peers at skipping
Speaker 1: the ball out of ball pressure. So they can actually
Speaker 1: do a good job of putting two on the ball
Speaker 1: with Shay and keeping their defense out of rotation as
Speaker 1: long as Yo Kic gets up there quickly and is
Speaker 1: active with his hands to prevent Shae from splitting him
Speaker 1: off the dribble two. As a team, they need to
Speaker 1: do a better job of containing dribble penetration at all positions.
Speaker 1: We talked about that earlier. Three. I would absolutely try
Speaker 1: the zone again. I'd wait, I'd wait until Oklahoma City
Speaker 1: makes a second half run and try to just use
Speaker 1: it as a rhythm disruptor. I think Yokic is gonna
Speaker 1: have to hit some of those pick and pop jumpers
Speaker 1: like we talked about it like that again, when you
Speaker 1: look at the way Oklahoma City is guarding him on
Speaker 1: those rolls, it's just the easy counter. It's for him
Speaker 1: to pop. He just has to knock the shot down.
Speaker 1: If Yo Kitchen the Nuggets get a big win tonight,
Speaker 1: it will flip the script and get things back to
Speaker 1: where they were yesterday. And if you looked at the
Speaker 1: odds yesterday, Jokicch was like plus two hundred. He was
Speaker 1: back within striking distance. The narrative was gaining strength. If
Speaker 1: he gets a win tonight and Yokicch is amazing the
Speaker 1: rest of the season and he demonstrates a little bit
Speaker 1: of a closing of that gap, maybe he can make
Speaker 1: up ground and get to his fourth envy. But it's
Speaker 1: going to start tonight by flipping the script against the
Speaker 1: thunder all right, Let's talk a little bit about the
Speaker 1: Golden Saved Warriors before we get out of here for today.
Speaker 1: A couple of big wins over the weekend against the
Speaker 1: Brooklyn Nets and the Detroit Pistons. Steph put on an
Speaker 1: absolute show against Brooklyn. Dropped forty points, hit one of
Speaker 1: the craziest shots of his career, left shoulder fade from
Speaker 1: forty feet to beat the halftime buzzer. Just a ridiculous shot.
Speaker 1: I want to talk a little bit about that specific
Speaker 1: footwork and how Steph's just been deadly on it here
Speaker 1: in a little bit. He hit two threes in the
Speaker 1: final six minutes that ice that game. He continues to
Speaker 1: be absolutely brilliant. He dropped thirty two more against the
Speaker 1: Pistons yesterday. We're now at a fifteen games span from Steph,
Speaker 1: where he's played every night, hasn't missed a game, averaged
Speaker 1: thirty one points, four rebounds, and six assists on sixty
Speaker 1: five percent true shooting. Remember Steph's animous MVP campaign, he
Speaker 1: averaged thirty points a game on sixty seven percent trough shooting.
Speaker 1: He's basically at that level and he looks like it too.
Speaker 1: I talked about how the best example of it is
Speaker 1: his paint scoring in a video a while back. I
Speaker 1: shared some stats with you guys about how since Jimmy
Speaker 1: Butler came to the team, his rim attempts and his
Speaker 1: efficiency of skyrocket skyrocketed since Jimmy came to town. But
Speaker 1: another example that has come to light to me is
Speaker 1: his movement shooting, particularly sprinting to his right. I've talked
Speaker 1: about this concept on the show before, but it is
Speaker 1: the hardest shot for a right handed shooter. Most right
Speaker 1: handed shooters, when they're taking a jump shot, their shoulders
Speaker 1: are not square to the basket. They're tilted slightly to
Speaker 1: the left. Why Because it's just kind of a natural
Speaker 1: spot for the shooting motion to exist. Most right handed
Speaker 1: shooters are very comfortable moving to the left, shooting to
Speaker 1: the left, because as they're running, it's an easy one
Speaker 1: to two with that right foot left foot as they're
Speaker 1: planning their feet to get up, straight up and down,
Speaker 1: and when they're off to dribble, they're already canted in
Speaker 1: that direction, so they can take step backs and shoot.
Speaker 1: Shay's a great example that step back that Shay shoots
Speaker 1: all the time. He's using that right foot to jab
Speaker 1: because his right foot's going to be forward when he
Speaker 1: shoots anyway, and so like as you're moving as a
Speaker 1: shooter to your left, it's easier. Most ball handling shooters
Speaker 1: in the league, if you funnel them to the right,
Speaker 1: they're going to go to the rim. If you funnel
Speaker 1: them to the left, they're going to settle for a
Speaker 1: pull up jump shot. It's like a basic defensive principle
Speaker 1: that works for the most part at all levels. But
Speaker 1: the very best shooters in the world can also shoot
Speaker 1: really well moving to the right. It's just way more difficult.
Speaker 1: Specifically on your legs, that same dynamic is reversed. I
Speaker 1: want to shoot with my right foot slightly canted forward
Speaker 1: and my left foot slightly back, but I'm running towards
Speaker 1: my right hand side. So as I'm running, my left
Speaker 1: foot is closer to the basket and my right foot
Speaker 1: is closer to half court. And so in order to
Speaker 1: rise up and knock down a shot sprinting to my right,
Speaker 1: I have to plant that left foot, swing that right
Speaker 1: foot all the way around, and plant it as close
Speaker 1: to forward as possible, usually not. And then as I'm jumping,
Speaker 1: I have to square up in mid air in order
Speaker 1: to rise up and knock the shot down. It is
Speaker 1: a very difficult shot, specifically on your legs. And that's
Speaker 1: the most exciting part that I've seen from Steph over
Speaker 1: the course the last couple of weeks, other than the
Speaker 1: stuff and the paint. He's sprinting into that jump shot,
Speaker 1: running to his right, and he's hitting that thing. He
Speaker 1: had a big one against the Pistons late. He had
Speaker 1: a big one against the nets late. He had another
Speaker 1: one a couple games earlier, the fade away that he
Speaker 1: hit against the nets. That's also a same sort of concept.
Speaker 1: He's pivoting over his left shoulder and squaring up in
Speaker 1: mid air to knock down a shot. That to me
Speaker 1: is a great sign that Steph has a really strong
Speaker 1: base right now, and that to me is the most
Speaker 1: important part. You're seeing it too. Yeah, he had a
Speaker 1: little step back jumper that he missed against a Star
Speaker 1: Thompson in the I think it was in the late third,
Speaker 1: it could have been in the fourth quarter, but he
Speaker 1: got tons of separate against a Star Thompson, and I'm like, oh,
Speaker 1: my goodness, Like Sar Thompson is one of the most
Speaker 1: athletic perimeter defenders we have in the league, and Steph
Speaker 1: just just basically shucked him off and got an easy look.
Speaker 1: Steph is looking fantastic, and that is exciting because there
Speaker 1: is no championship ceiling for this team, even with trades,
Speaker 1: even with roster upside, even with Jimmy Butler. There's no
Speaker 1: championship upside for this team unless Steph Curry gets back
Speaker 1: to top tier superstar level, and we're at about a
Speaker 1: month now of him being at that level, which is
Speaker 1: super super encouraging. But I want to shout out some
Speaker 1: of Steph's teammates from the Pistons game. The Pistons defended
Speaker 1: Steph pretty well. He grinded out his thirty two points
Speaker 1: because he's a legend, but it wasn't easy. Sar Thompson
Speaker 1: did a good job on him in this game. Jalen
Speaker 1: Duran logged some really good at the level reps in
Speaker 1: that fourth quarter, even got a strip on Steph trying
Speaker 1: to cross over in front of him in that stretch,
Speaker 1: but the Warriors were able to go somewhere else for
Speaker 1: offense down the stretch. Jimmy was fantastic all night. He
Speaker 1: had twenty six to nine and five, one of his
Speaker 1: better stat lines as a Warrior. Did a lot of
Speaker 1: work against Isaiah Stewart in switches in the bench groups.
Speaker 1: He's already showing some nice chemistry with Quinton Post as
Speaker 1: like a ballscreen guy. He can get some favorable switches
Speaker 1: there because nobody wants to leave Quinton Posts open on
Speaker 1: the pop if they can avoid it. He's good at
Speaker 1: like kind of operating in the dunker spot off of Jimmy,
Speaker 1: and Jimmy's just doing a really nice job with those
Speaker 1: bench groups. But he also hit one of the biggest
Speaker 1: shots of the game late ty game a little over
Speaker 1: a minute left, just cleared the left side of the floor,
Speaker 1: gave the ball to Jimmy against Tobias Harris, and he
Speaker 1: just sat in that hesitation dribble and rose up over
Speaker 1: the top and knocked down a big shot to put
Speaker 1: the Warriors up too. And then Draymond Green two massive
Speaker 1: plays a beautiful pass to Steph on a cut where
Speaker 1: he was cutting through the lane and Malik Beasley was
Speaker 1: like face guarding Steph, and Draymond identified that he was
Speaker 1: face guarding him, and that means he's open and he's
Speaker 1: being face guarded. It means he's not watching man and ball.
Speaker 1: He's only watching man. So Draymon just this easy, breezy
Speaker 1: little pass and Steph saw it. Just sealed Malik a
Speaker 1: little bit, allowed the pass to come in right over
Speaker 1: the top and then flipped it in for an and
Speaker 1: one beautiful read from Draymond Green, and then the game
Speaker 1: winner with about thirty seconds left, just confidently stepped into
Speaker 1: a three on the right wing and swished it. There
Speaker 1: was a lot of time on the shot clock when
Speaker 1: that shot went up, so Draymond literally trusted himself down
Speaker 1: what was it down two or down one, I can't
Speaker 1: remember exactly down in the final minute to rise up
Speaker 1: and knock down a shot with plenty of time left
Speaker 1: in the shot clock swished it to just unbelievable plays.
Speaker 1: On one hand, the luxury of having an apex star
Speaker 1: to give the ball too late to go get a bucket,
Speaker 1: but on the other hand, a confident veteran who can
Speaker 1: make simple reads and step up and make big shots
Speaker 1: and big moments. I thought it was awesome that those
Speaker 1: two stepped up and made the plays late to beat
Speaker 1: the Pistons. I want to sho shout out some of
Speaker 1: the other role players as well. Moses Moody. He had
Speaker 1: a rough shooting night overall, but he made two huge
Speaker 1: plays late. He had a big catching shoot three out
Speaker 1: of the right corner, and then after Draymond's three, playing
Speaker 1: some good ball pressure to Kay Cunningham and strips Cade
Speaker 1: at half court. One of the biggest plays of the game,
Speaker 1: a big steal. He had three steals in this game.
Speaker 1: And then Gi Santos just active all over the floor.
Speaker 1: He had an incredible offensive rebound put back where he
Speaker 1: got knocked to the floor off of like a little shove,
Speaker 1: but he just kind of fed the ball into the
Speaker 1: basket and got an and one. He had this nice
Speaker 1: play too late in the game where he was operating
Speaker 1: with the ball at the right wing, and there was
Speaker 1: off ball action running and the pistons were just completely
Speaker 1: geared towards the off ball action, and he just ripped
Speaker 1: through to the right side driving lane and got all
Speaker 1: the way to the basket and made a layup. He
Speaker 1: looked awesome. He had fifteen points and six rebounds and
Speaker 1: was a plus twelve. The Warriors are eleven and two
Speaker 1: in their last thirteen games, now just five games back
Speaker 1: from the two seed as they continued to climb in
Speaker 1: the standings. All right, guys, that is all I have
Speaker 1: for tonight. As always, as sincerely appreciate you guys for
Speaker 1: supporting me and supporting the show. We'll be back tomorrow
Speaker 1: with a breakdown of that rematch between the Thunder and
Speaker 1: the Nuggets, to swallow some a couple other games from tonight's slate.
Speaker 1: I'll see you guys then the volume. What's up guys,
Speaker 1: As always, I appreciate you for listening to and supporting
Speaker 1: hoops tonight. It would actually be really helpful for us
Speaker 1: if you guys would take a second and leave a
Speaker 1: rating and a review. As always, I appreciate you guys
Speaker 1: supporting us, But if you could take a minute to
Speaker 1: do that, I'd really appreciate it.