WEBVTT - China Still Not Collapsing

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Wait inside from the reporters and

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<v Speaker 1>editors who bring you America's most trusted business magazine, plus

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<v Speaker 1>global business, finance and tech news. The Bloomberg Business Week

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<v Speaker 1>Podcast with Carol Messer and Tim Stenebek from Bloomberg Radio.

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<v Speaker 2>And when we're talking about China being the world's second

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<v Speaker 2>largest economy, and also when you're looking at Bloomberg Economics,

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<v Speaker 2>really thinking that when you're thinking at the trajectory of

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<v Speaker 2>its growth not quite holding up as much as obviously

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<v Speaker 2>economists we're anticipating. And then also when you're thinking about

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<v Speaker 2>Tim the liquidity crunch it's going under, when you're thinking

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<v Speaker 2>about some of those property developers and the pressure that

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<v Speaker 2>they have been under so significantly, what this could really

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<v Speaker 2>mean when you're looking at global economic growth and obviously

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<v Speaker 2>the US economy, which has proven to be pretty resilient.

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<v Speaker 3>Here, Yeah, just doing a great job of laying out

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<v Speaker 3>all the challenges when we do look at China, the

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<v Speaker 3>world's second largest economy, to get an idea of where

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<v Speaker 3>China's economy is headed in its effect on global growth.

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<v Speaker 3>I'm very pleased to have with us this afternoon. Leland

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<v Speaker 3>at Miller CEO at China page book International. Leland joining

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<v Speaker 3>us on a zoom from Washington, D C. Leland, How

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<v Speaker 3>are you good?

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<v Speaker 4>Well?

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<v Speaker 3>Thank you well, thanks so much for joining us. You

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<v Speaker 3>might have heard us mentioned earlier this morning that we

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<v Speaker 3>actually saw Bloomberg Economics cut its long term forecast as

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<v Speaker 3>the post COVID rebound has run out of steam. This

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<v Speaker 3>for China, it's pretty remarkable to see this. Just a

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<v Speaker 3>couple of weeks ago, Carol and I we're talking to

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<v Speaker 3>some folks who said, you know what, it's no longer

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<v Speaker 3>a growth story the same way that it has been

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<v Speaker 3>in China for years, and in fact we could see

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<v Speaker 3>higher growth here in the US. That's just not something

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<v Speaker 3>we talked about a few years ago. Where do you fall, Leland?

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<v Speaker 4>Well, it was something we were talking about for the

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<v Speaker 4>past ten years, but you know, nobody really wanted to

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<v Speaker 4>hear about it, because you know, the idea was China

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<v Speaker 4>was growing at eight percent, or they were going at

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<v Speaker 4>close to eight percent, and most people didn't really see

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<v Speaker 4>a reason why the economic magic couldn't continue. The growth

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<v Speaker 4>model had worked up to that point, why couldn't they

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<v Speaker 4>still crank out another twenty years at eight percent? I

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<v Speaker 4>think that was the mindset up until relatively recently when

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<v Speaker 4>people realize that, look, no one in Beijing is an

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<v Speaker 4>economic magician anymore than anywhere else in the world. You know,

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<v Speaker 4>there's subject to the laws of economics. And when they

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<v Speaker 4>have the system that they have, it's it is structurally

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<v Speaker 4>pumped up growth for a while, but there's going to

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<v Speaker 4>be a much more precipitous slowdown on the way down.

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<v Speaker 4>So I think, first of all, we have to be

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<v Speaker 4>ready for very for a future of significant slowdown going forward,

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<v Speaker 4>a structural slowdown. And second, when you're looking at whether

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<v Speaker 4>the United States can pass, whether China can pass the

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<v Speaker 4>United States, or whether it does or not, I think

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<v Speaker 4>that the issue here is that if Chijin pain falls

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<v Speaker 4>victim to the mindset that he has to pass the

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<v Speaker 4>United States, and they do everything that's needed in order

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<v Speaker 4>to pass the United States in GDP growth, then China

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<v Speaker 4>will be going the wrong direction. I think they'll you know,

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<v Speaker 4>Sheijin Ping will be reversing some of the stuff he's

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<v Speaker 4>been doing for the past you know, the past several years.

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<v Speaker 4>It's caused a lot of you know, pressure on the economy,

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<v Speaker 4>but has been towards the idea of getting dead under control.

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<v Speaker 4>So to the extent that China passed the United State,

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<v Speaker 4>which looks unlikely. It's always looked unlikely. But if it

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<v Speaker 4>does happen, it means Chi Jinping is doing the wrong things,

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<v Speaker 4>not the right things.

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<v Speaker 2>Why is it that the post COVID rebound just didn't hold.

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<v Speaker 4>That's a great question. I mean, you know, we were

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<v Speaker 4>very cautious, particularly early in the year, saying, look, there's

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<v Speaker 4>a lot that China has to get over. You have

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<v Speaker 4>to break down the COVID zero administrative state. You know,

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<v Speaker 4>businesses have been frozen in place for a year now.

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<v Speaker 4>But even we were surprised at how tepid the recovery

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<v Speaker 4>was in the second quarter. I think it all comes

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<v Speaker 4>down to confidence. When you look at what's happening in

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<v Speaker 4>the economy. Firms didn't like what they were coming out of.

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<v Speaker 4>They didn't know what was happening, and so there wasn't

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<v Speaker 4>a sense of confidence the economy. If you don't have confidence,

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<v Speaker 4>then you're not borrowing, you're not hiring, you're not spending.

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<v Speaker 4>There was some of this, but not enough of it,

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<v Speaker 4>and so you had a sequential recovery and month to

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<v Speaker 4>month to month throughout twenty twenty three, but it was

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<v Speaker 4>nowhere near what people were expecting or hoping for, and

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<v Speaker 4>so people have become very very despondent on what they're

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<v Speaker 4>seeing in the economy right now.

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<v Speaker 3>So Leland, what does this all mean for American investors

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<v Speaker 3>and American companies that do business or want to do

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<v Speaker 3>business in China.

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<v Speaker 4>Well, I think this is, you know, peace by piece.

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<v Speaker 4>We have been opening the eyes of foreign investors. I mean,

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<v Speaker 4>you know, a long time ago, it was it was

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<v Speaker 4>first it was gepolitics, and then it was the trade war,

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<v Speaker 4>and then it was you know, COVID, and then it

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<v Speaker 4>was COVID zero, and now it's you know, low growth

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<v Speaker 4>after COVID zero, and with with the foreign foreign crackdown

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<v Speaker 4>on business, crackdown on foreign businesses. So there hasn't been

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<v Speaker 4>one thing that convinced foreign investors, foreign businesses that they

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<v Speaker 4>had to be more careful about going into China. Maybe

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<v Speaker 4>they didn't want to go there, maybe they had to

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<v Speaker 4>pull their supply chains out. It's been incremental, but I

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<v Speaker 4>think when we got to COVID zero, finally, I think

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<v Speaker 4>a lot of foreign businesses they just said, enough is enough.

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<v Speaker 4>We can't operate here. It's not worth it. And you know,

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<v Speaker 4>we can't be susceptible to having our supply chains severed

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<v Speaker 4>because somebody decides to do a nationwide lockdown.

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<v Speaker 3>But so if you're Nike, if you're Disney, you're not

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<v Speaker 3>gonna throw in the towel. If you're Apple, yeah, sure

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<v Speaker 3>you're gonna move your supply chains a little bit. I mean,

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<v Speaker 3>but that company is just so intertwined with China.

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<v Speaker 4>That's exactly right. So what you're gonna do is you're

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<v Speaker 4>gonna bifurcate your operations. So you're gonna have a China operations,

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<v Speaker 4>You're gonna have an X Chine operations that allows you

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<v Speaker 4>not to have supply chains that are that are tangled up.

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<v Speaker 4>You produce in China for Chinese consumers, if you think

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<v Speaker 4>that's a great market, then you stay in there and

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<v Speaker 4>you need to ramp it up. But if you're if

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<v Speaker 4>you're mostly ramping up for for for for foreign consumers,

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<v Speaker 4>maybe you don't run your supply chains through China anymore. So, yes, absolutely,

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<v Speaker 4>there's companies that don't have that absolutely don't want to

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<v Speaker 4>pull themselves out of China and won't, but I think

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<v Speaker 4>they're they're they're changing their approach and how they treat

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<v Speaker 4>the China part of the equation.

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<v Speaker 2>How concerned are you about China's property debt crisis.

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<v Speaker 4>I'll be real provocative here and I'll say I'm not

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<v Speaker 4>concerned at all. Not that things aren't a mess. I

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<v Speaker 4>just look, we spent all of August. Everyone supposed to

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<v Speaker 4>be a VACA. We've spent all of August listening to

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<v Speaker 4>people say that China's collapsing. Emitt hard Landing. We had

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<v Speaker 4>a lot of people worried about that, had a lot

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<v Speaker 4>of notes going out saying, look, China is not collapsing.

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<v Speaker 4>Here's what's actually happening. It's not that the property sector

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<v Speaker 4>isn't a mess. The property sector is a mess. You've

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<v Speaker 4>got a big shadow bank that's wobbling right now in

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<v Speaker 4>Country Garden, which you had two years ago in Evergrand.

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<v Speaker 4>It freaked everybody out. A lot of problems the property sector.

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<v Speaker 4>But China is not a typical economic system. It is

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<v Speaker 4>a non commercial financial system, which means they're much less

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<v Speaker 4>susceptible to things like a limit moment, like an acute crisis.

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<v Speaker 4>So you have the ability to do things in a

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<v Speaker 4>non commercial financial system you can't do in the West.

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<v Speaker 4>You can't do in the US can't do in Europe.

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<v Speaker 4>And so the idea that this is going to create

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<v Speaker 4>some sort of sense of financial contagion and just roll

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<v Speaker 4>every everybody over very very unlikely. But it does cause

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<v Speaker 4>stresses to the system. And I think that it's happening

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<v Speaker 4>right now because the Chinese government is allowing it to happen.

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<v Speaker 4>When it starts looking like guess could go out of control,

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<v Speaker 4>then they step in and and and they ease conditions

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<v Speaker 4>a bit.

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<v Speaker 3>What are they going to do in terms of stepping in?

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<v Speaker 3>I mean, are you talking the question of moral hazard here,

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<v Speaker 3>like they're not going to let anything fail?

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<v Speaker 4>Well, I think they want to. They want to. They

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<v Speaker 4>know that they are creating very very difficult conditions inside

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<v Speaker 4>the inside the property sector. What they want to keep

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<v Speaker 4>the problems inside of property. So you want to make

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<v Speaker 4>sure that financial contagent is it's spreading to other areas

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<v Speaker 4>of economy. You want to make sure that cash flow

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<v Speaker 4>doesn't completely freeze up. Uh, And so that's why you're

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<v Speaker 4>seeing easing measures right now. So, I mean, we have

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<v Speaker 4>a fiscal activity index we track and monetary stimulus index

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<v Speaker 4>we track, and we could see that as they are

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<v Speaker 4>pushing harder on some of these issues, like you know,

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<v Speaker 4>the resolution on these shadow banks, and and and and

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<v Speaker 4>as property continues to deteriorate, then they step in and

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<v Speaker 4>they give it a little bit of juice on the side.

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<v Speaker 4>And so there is there is a you know, a

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<v Speaker 4>push and pull on these things. But in terms of

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<v Speaker 4>a bank, a big shadow bank falling in it causing

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<v Speaker 4>the system to fall apart in a domino effect like

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<v Speaker 4>we saw with Lehman, that's not going to happen in China.

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<v Speaker 2>So what are their corners within the economy have been

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<v Speaker 2>able to offset those concerns when you're talking about when

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<v Speaker 2>you're looking at what's happening with the property debt crisis

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<v Speaker 2>not being as big of an issue as maybe people

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<v Speaker 2>are thinking at this point.

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<v Speaker 4>Well, one of the problems is you haven't had real

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<v Speaker 4>strength anywhere else to compensate. So if the conversation right

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<v Speaker 4>now is you know, are things going greater are they

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<v Speaker 4>going not that great? Then a difficult you know, it's

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<v Speaker 4>a difficult thing to hash out. But you know, luckily

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<v Speaker 4>for us it's been very easy because the question is

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<v Speaker 4>is China growing or is it China collapsing? And China's

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<v Speaker 4>clearly not collapsing. I think the whole thing is ludicrous.

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<v Speaker 4>That that is the sentiment people have right now. If

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<v Speaker 4>you look at what's happening in the manufacturing sector, it's

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<v Speaker 4>actually held up much more impressively this year than we

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<v Speaker 4>thought it would. You've got enormous headwinds. You're coming off

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<v Speaker 4>three years of gangbusters growth. It's manufacturings holding its own.

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<v Speaker 4>Is it doing great? Is it doing twenty twenty two?

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<v Speaker 5>Low?

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<v Speaker 4>It's not doing It's not what it was, but it's

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<v Speaker 4>doing okay. It's not a huge weak point. The consumption

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<v Speaker 4>parts of the e conoity. We look retail and services,

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<v Speaker 4>are they doing great?

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<v Speaker 6>Well?

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<v Speaker 4>Parts of services are, but overall doing okay, you know,

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<v Speaker 4>very uneven. So they're not a real bright spot. It's

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<v Speaker 4>just you know, you're not seeing great stuff out of China.

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<v Speaker 4>You're not seeing good data, but you're just not seeing

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<v Speaker 4>anywhere near as negative a story as a lot of

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<v Speaker 4>people think is happening inside inside the walls of the economy.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, hey, just before we let you go, Leland, talk

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<v Speaker 3>about political implications here she as president for life, as

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<v Speaker 3>said in the past, any political implications in thirty seconds.

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<v Speaker 4>This is she's show. So we can you know we

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<v Speaker 4>spend a lot of time talking about how you know,

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<v Speaker 4>four investors say, oh, Shei Jinping would never do this

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<v Speaker 4>because dot dot dot. I think after a year of

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<v Speaker 4>COVID zero we have we should be coming to the

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<v Speaker 4>conclusion that there is nothing Chijin Ping won't do simply

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<v Speaker 4>because we don't think he'll do it. It can be

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<v Speaker 4>very humble in in evaluating where he's taking the economy,

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<v Speaker 4>and it's in a very different direction than than he

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<v Speaker 4>ran in the past.

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<v Speaker 3>All right, we're gonna have to leave it there. Thank

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<v Speaker 3>you so much for taking the time this afternoon. That's

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<v Speaker 3>Leland Miller, CEO at China beij International, joining us this

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<v Speaker 3>afternoon on zoom from Washington, DC.

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<v Speaker 2>We all know how much AI is all the hype.

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<v Speaker 3>I mean, just look different. Vidia is here to date

0:10:26.280 --> 0:10:27.839
<v Speaker 3>increase of two hundred percent or.

0:10:27.760 --> 0:10:32.200
<v Speaker 2>More exactly, though questions do remain about what this all

0:10:32.320 --> 0:10:37.199
<v Speaker 2>means for cybersecurity, particularly in the workplace, especially since generative

0:10:37.320 --> 0:10:42.360
<v Speaker 2>AI applications continue to evolve. So we have Dana simbercov

0:10:42.520 --> 0:10:46.800
<v Speaker 2>chief Risk, Privacy and Information Security Officer at a Point,

0:10:46.920 --> 0:10:50.320
<v Speaker 2>joining us on Zoom from New Hampshire to explain why

0:10:50.360 --> 0:10:54.000
<v Speaker 2>the cybersecurity industry isn't ready for the AI boom and

0:10:54.040 --> 0:10:58.880
<v Speaker 2>what guardrails companies should use to protect their employees. Dana,

0:10:58.920 --> 0:11:01.800
<v Speaker 2>thanks so much for joining us. As always, I want

0:11:01.800 --> 0:11:04.240
<v Speaker 2>to get your thoughts on that because when we are discussing,

0:11:04.320 --> 0:11:07.120
<v Speaker 2>like Tim and myself about this AI boom, why is

0:11:07.120 --> 0:11:09.840
<v Speaker 2>it that cybersecurity companies may not be ready for this

0:11:10.000 --> 0:11:10.800
<v Speaker 2>just yet.

0:11:12.040 --> 0:11:14.320
<v Speaker 6>Well, thanks Jess and Tim for having me this afternoon.

0:11:14.320 --> 0:11:17.600
<v Speaker 6>Great to be with you. I think AI is just

0:11:17.800 --> 0:11:21.160
<v Speaker 6>yet another obstacle in the road to looking for that

0:11:21.240 --> 0:11:24.640
<v Speaker 6>perfect security solution that just doesn't exist out there. Honestly, so,

0:11:25.600 --> 0:11:29.160
<v Speaker 6>artificial intelligence and sort of the leap learning that is

0:11:29.200 --> 0:11:35.120
<v Speaker 6>coming through technologies like that GBT really puts cyber professionals

0:11:35.120 --> 0:11:41.080
<v Speaker 6>on edge because this is just one more ripple in

0:11:41.120 --> 0:11:43.880
<v Speaker 6>the world we live in where cyber professionals have to

0:11:43.880 --> 0:11:46.880
<v Speaker 6>be right one hundred percent of the time and bad

0:11:46.920 --> 0:11:49.880
<v Speaker 6>guys only have to be right once in order to

0:11:49.920 --> 0:11:51.599
<v Speaker 6>get inside of your defenses.

0:11:51.800 --> 0:11:54.040
<v Speaker 3>And there's a shortage of bad guys out there, Dana,

0:11:54.080 --> 0:11:56.319
<v Speaker 3>as we as we certainly know. So what's the worst

0:11:56.320 --> 0:11:59.040
<v Speaker 3>case scenario here? I mean, describe for us what kind

0:11:59.040 --> 0:12:00.640
<v Speaker 3>of keeps you up at night, makes you scared.

0:12:02.320 --> 0:12:06.600
<v Speaker 6>Well, I think that really the secret to building a

0:12:06.600 --> 0:12:09.520
<v Speaker 6>good program and addressing this is really to go back

0:12:09.520 --> 0:12:12.160
<v Speaker 6>to cyber hygiene basics, doing what we do every day,

0:12:12.200 --> 0:12:14.440
<v Speaker 6>which is making sure that we have good data governance

0:12:14.480 --> 0:12:19.800
<v Speaker 6>in place within our companies and across our partner ecosystems.

0:12:19.880 --> 0:12:23.280
<v Speaker 6>Because if you know what information you're handling, if you

0:12:23.360 --> 0:12:26.040
<v Speaker 6>know what it is, where it is, who can access it,

0:12:26.080 --> 0:12:29.040
<v Speaker 6>and how it's being shared, then you can largely mitigate

0:12:29.080 --> 0:12:31.800
<v Speaker 6>some of the risks that are associated with AI. So

0:12:31.880 --> 0:12:36.160
<v Speaker 6>at the end of the day, it does oh no, continue, Well,

0:12:36.240 --> 0:12:37.679
<v Speaker 6>I was just going to say, at the end of

0:12:37.720 --> 0:12:43.040
<v Speaker 6>the day, it does come down to people, policy and technology.

0:12:43.120 --> 0:12:46.600
<v Speaker 6>So there really is no bad technology, just bad use

0:12:46.640 --> 0:12:47.560
<v Speaker 6>of technology.

0:12:48.200 --> 0:12:51.920
<v Speaker 2>And when you're talking about cybersecurity, are there particular sub

0:12:51.960 --> 0:12:54.679
<v Speaker 2>industries or companies that you think might potentially be more

0:12:54.760 --> 0:12:55.760
<v Speaker 2>vulnerable than others?

0:12:57.679 --> 0:13:00.679
<v Speaker 6>Well, I certainly think that the ability for or again

0:13:00.720 --> 0:13:07.719
<v Speaker 6>those malicious bad actors to use AI to potentially perpetrate cybercrime,

0:13:07.880 --> 0:13:11.960
<v Speaker 6>take advantage of insiders inside of a company to really

0:13:12.920 --> 0:13:16.319
<v Speaker 6>accelerate the process of cyber attacks. We've already seen through

0:13:16.520 --> 0:13:20.560
<v Speaker 6>phishing and smishing, where somebody receives a phone call or

0:13:20.600 --> 0:13:23.240
<v Speaker 6>a text message saying that they are an executive that

0:13:23.320 --> 0:13:26.120
<v Speaker 6>need help right away. Just imagine that amplified with the

0:13:26.160 --> 0:13:29.800
<v Speaker 6>ability to actually, you know, fake person over video, these

0:13:29.840 --> 0:13:32.560
<v Speaker 6>deep fakes that we've been hearing about where a person's

0:13:32.720 --> 0:13:36.040
<v Speaker 6>image or voice could be easily replicated data.

0:13:37.040 --> 0:13:40.200
<v Speaker 3>You said phishing. We all know about phishing. Did you

0:13:40.200 --> 0:13:40.920
<v Speaker 3>say smishing?

0:13:42.440 --> 0:13:47.840
<v Speaker 6>Smishing, Yes, that's smishing is using a text message or

0:13:48.000 --> 0:13:51.320
<v Speaker 6>some kind of social media. So whether it's WhatsApp, your phone,

0:13:51.559 --> 0:13:54.839
<v Speaker 6>or you know, just pretending to be somebody that you're

0:13:54.880 --> 0:13:58.040
<v Speaker 6>not and using technology to get to an intended target.

0:13:58.080 --> 0:14:00.480
<v Speaker 6>And this is really common. We see it a lot

0:14:00.920 --> 0:14:04.280
<v Speaker 6>both inside of our company is you know, as we

0:14:04.360 --> 0:14:08.640
<v Speaker 6>build our own cyber defenses, but also across our customer ecosystem,

0:14:08.760 --> 0:14:12.800
<v Speaker 6>where it really isn't just what you know, but who

0:14:12.840 --> 0:14:16.120
<v Speaker 6>you are that makes you a target potentially within a company.

0:14:16.200 --> 0:14:17.440
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, I didn't know that what it was. That's what

0:14:17.440 --> 0:14:19.120
<v Speaker 3>it was called. We had a great cover story an

0:14:19.160 --> 0:14:22.360
<v Speaker 3>excerpt from Zeke Fox's forthcoming book Number Go Up that

0:14:22.440 --> 0:14:25.040
<v Speaker 3>talked all about where those text messages actually come from.

0:14:25.160 --> 0:14:27.960
<v Speaker 3>I also encourage everybody listening who's interested to go check

0:14:28.000 --> 0:14:31.000
<v Speaker 3>that one out. It was just a couple of weeks ago. Okay, So, Dana,

0:14:31.040 --> 0:14:32.480
<v Speaker 3>what about when it comes to I mean, when I

0:14:32.480 --> 0:14:35.320
<v Speaker 3>think about the worst case scenario, I mean, I understand, like,

0:14:35.360 --> 0:14:38.320
<v Speaker 3>I consider myself pretty savvy when it comes to, uh

0:14:38.560 --> 0:14:40.960
<v Speaker 3>not answering those phishing emails, And we certainly get trained

0:14:40.960 --> 0:14:42.480
<v Speaker 3>pretty well here at Bloomberg, and I think a lot

0:14:42.520 --> 0:14:44.360
<v Speaker 3>of companies do that in this day and age.

0:14:44.360 --> 0:14:46.400
<v Speaker 2>Even do some trick emails at times just to see

0:14:46.440 --> 0:14:47.080
<v Speaker 2>if we get caught.

0:14:47.200 --> 0:14:49.520
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, they do. You got to you got to be vigilant.

0:14:49.760 --> 0:14:53.040
<v Speaker 3>I think my concern though, is is is how generative

0:14:53.080 --> 0:14:55.440
<v Speaker 3>AI sort of changes that, and it makes it so

0:14:55.480 --> 0:14:58.160
<v Speaker 3>it's like really not possible to distinguish what is real

0:14:58.200 --> 0:15:01.160
<v Speaker 3>and what isn't real. So so let's say that the

0:15:01.160 --> 0:15:04.000
<v Speaker 3>weakest link is always the person. Where do companies like

0:15:04.040 --> 0:15:06.520
<v Speaker 3>afpoint come in to try to stop that from happening?

0:15:07.720 --> 0:15:09.880
<v Speaker 6>Well, I think at the end of the day, it

0:15:09.960 --> 0:15:13.920
<v Speaker 6>really is going to come down to not only identity,

0:15:14.960 --> 0:15:17.960
<v Speaker 6>but also technology and what we allow individuals to do.

0:15:18.080 --> 0:15:20.560
<v Speaker 6>So just in the same way we've been talking over

0:15:20.560 --> 0:15:23.160
<v Speaker 6>the last really couple of years with COVID about now

0:15:23.200 --> 0:15:28.040
<v Speaker 6>the borderless office, where employees are working really from anywhere

0:15:28.040 --> 0:15:31.479
<v Speaker 6>in the world, they're home, Starbucks, you know, the office.

0:15:32.200 --> 0:15:35.160
<v Speaker 6>That means that there's no perimeter around the office that

0:15:35.200 --> 0:15:37.640
<v Speaker 6>you can protect, and so identity really has become that

0:15:37.680 --> 0:15:40.280
<v Speaker 6>new perimeter to a great extent, and making sure that

0:15:40.360 --> 0:15:42.640
<v Speaker 6>you know who you're talking to and who you are

0:15:43.120 --> 0:15:45.880
<v Speaker 6>is going to be critical. And limiting the ability for

0:15:46.600 --> 0:15:49.600
<v Speaker 6>somebody to move either horizontally or vertically within a company

0:15:49.640 --> 0:15:52.520
<v Speaker 6>if they are impersonated, is going to really help sort

0:15:52.520 --> 0:15:55.160
<v Speaker 6>of fill that gap and protect against that kind of risk.

0:15:55.600 --> 0:15:58.480
<v Speaker 2>We actually did hear from z Scaler after the bell.

0:15:58.520 --> 0:16:01.480
<v Speaker 2>They did report earnings and there are forecasts for EPs

0:16:01.560 --> 0:16:03.520
<v Speaker 2>to beat estimates. But of course, when it comes to

0:16:04.080 --> 0:16:06.960
<v Speaker 2>a cloud cybersecurity company like this, and I have to

0:16:07.000 --> 0:16:09.440
<v Speaker 2>note it stocks up more than five percent, and after

0:16:09.480 --> 0:16:12.400
<v Speaker 2>I was treating how does cloud play into this? And

0:16:12.560 --> 0:16:14.280
<v Speaker 2>when it comes to AI as well, in some of

0:16:14.320 --> 0:16:15.000
<v Speaker 2>your concerns.

0:16:16.160 --> 0:16:18.720
<v Speaker 6>Well, cloud is both an opportunity and a risk. That

0:16:18.880 --> 0:16:21.800
<v Speaker 6>certainly a point as a as a cloud first company

0:16:21.840 --> 0:16:24.720
<v Speaker 6>providing services to you know, millions of our customers around

0:16:24.760 --> 0:16:27.320
<v Speaker 6>the world, takes advantage of a lot of the build

0:16:27.360 --> 0:16:30.720
<v Speaker 6>in security controls that exist through our partners like Microsoft

0:16:30.800 --> 0:16:34.480
<v Speaker 6>and others. There's also real opportunity with AI and the

0:16:34.480 --> 0:16:38.680
<v Speaker 6>cloud to benefit from you know, the kind of machine

0:16:38.760 --> 0:16:41.760
<v Speaker 6>learning and intelligence that could also be used to fight cybercrime.

0:16:41.840 --> 0:16:44.080
<v Speaker 6>So I think there are tremendous opportunities that the cloud

0:16:44.120 --> 0:16:45.920
<v Speaker 6>brings a really at the end of the day at

0:16:45.920 --> 0:16:51.280
<v Speaker 6>somebody else's computer, and so that good data hygiene data

0:16:51.320 --> 0:16:53.240
<v Speaker 6>governance is going to be critical to making sure that

0:16:53.280 --> 0:16:56.680
<v Speaker 6>whether you're in the cloud or on premise, that you're

0:16:56.720 --> 0:16:58.640
<v Speaker 6>really doing the right things to protect your business and

0:16:58.680 --> 0:16:59.360
<v Speaker 6>your data.

0:16:59.480 --> 0:17:00.960
<v Speaker 3>Is there a future for on premise or is it

0:17:01.000 --> 0:17:01.600
<v Speaker 3>all in the cloud?

0:17:03.160 --> 0:17:06.040
<v Speaker 6>Well, hard to say. I think, you know, the cloud

0:17:06.080 --> 0:17:09.719
<v Speaker 6>is certainly the future. It's it's the wave, it's the

0:17:09.720 --> 0:17:13.359
<v Speaker 6>direction that we see companies moving more and more. I

0:17:13.359 --> 0:17:16.480
<v Speaker 6>think that there will likely always be some hybrid environments

0:17:16.520 --> 0:17:18.679
<v Speaker 6>and depending on your industry, depending on the kind of

0:17:18.680 --> 0:17:22.400
<v Speaker 6>information you have, cloud is not always possible, but we'll see.

0:17:22.680 --> 0:17:22.840
<v Speaker 7>Now.

0:17:22.880 --> 0:17:25.000
<v Speaker 6>You never say never, and I think it's always good

0:17:25.040 --> 0:17:25.960
<v Speaker 6>to head your bets.

0:17:26.440 --> 0:17:30.240
<v Speaker 2>Whenever you speak to companies, what is their biggest concern

0:17:30.320 --> 0:17:30.680
<v Speaker 2>right now?

0:17:32.760 --> 0:17:35.320
<v Speaker 6>Well, again, I think it is knowing where that data is.

0:17:35.359 --> 0:17:39.440
<v Speaker 6>It's that unknown, that risk of not knowing is never better.

0:17:39.840 --> 0:17:42.880
<v Speaker 6>And so you know, the challenge for AI is clearly

0:17:42.960 --> 0:17:45.800
<v Speaker 6>that you can have a machine outpacing you rapidly. We

0:17:45.840 --> 0:17:48.639
<v Speaker 6>now see that our computers regularly are asking us to

0:17:48.640 --> 0:17:51.199
<v Speaker 6>prove that we're human by answering thinks like captures when

0:17:51.240 --> 0:17:56.080
<v Speaker 6>you go to websites, Will computers outpace humans at some point? Maybe?

0:17:56.119 --> 0:17:59.440
<v Speaker 6>I think again, for cybersecurity and privacy professionals, it's building

0:17:59.480 --> 0:18:02.440
<v Speaker 6>accounted into the way that we use data, making sure

0:18:02.480 --> 0:18:05.920
<v Speaker 6>that there's good transparency with our customers, and making sure

0:18:05.960 --> 0:18:07.840
<v Speaker 6>that we're really, you know, doing the right thing to

0:18:08.000 --> 0:18:11.640
<v Speaker 6>maximize the opportunity for businesses to do what they should

0:18:11.680 --> 0:18:14.800
<v Speaker 6>be doing while protecting the rights of individuals and data subjects.

0:18:14.840 --> 0:18:16.159
<v Speaker 3>I don't know, just do you have any ever have

0:18:16.200 --> 0:18:18.880
<v Speaker 3>a problem with those captures. I feel like they're they're

0:18:18.880 --> 0:18:21.920
<v Speaker 3>already the captures have already outsmarted me. I mean, you know,

0:18:21.920 --> 0:18:23.920
<v Speaker 3>what I'm talking about. Write those things.

0:18:24.720 --> 0:18:27.120
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, come on, I.

0:18:27.080 --> 0:18:29.120
<v Speaker 2>Mean, I mean, I honestly like one time I got

0:18:29.119 --> 0:18:31.760
<v Speaker 2>one of those Bloomberg emails and accidentally clicked it on something.

0:18:31.800 --> 0:18:33.119
<v Speaker 2>Then I had to go back through and do all

0:18:33.160 --> 0:18:35.760
<v Speaker 2>of the training. So I'm super vigilant now.

0:18:35.640 --> 0:18:38.120
<v Speaker 3>And not to busted. You only make that mistake once.

0:18:38.040 --> 0:18:40.119
<v Speaker 2>I know, exactly, so never again after doing that.

0:18:40.640 --> 0:18:43.040
<v Speaker 6>Well, that's that's good. That's good hyber training.

0:18:44.200 --> 0:18:44.840
<v Speaker 2>It really is.

0:18:44.960 --> 0:18:47.040
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, we have we have some pretty uh you know,

0:18:47.200 --> 0:18:48.840
<v Speaker 3>and you gotta it takes a while to do those

0:18:48.880 --> 0:18:51.800
<v Speaker 3>trainings too. Exactly for the last day, Dana, I'll tell

0:18:51.800 --> 0:18:55.200
<v Speaker 3>you that Data Simberkoff really appreciate you taking the time.

0:18:55.240 --> 0:18:58.600
<v Speaker 3>She's chief Risk, Privacy and Information Security officer at a

0:18:58.800 --> 0:19:02.480
<v Speaker 3>point joining us on Zoom from New Hampshire this afternoon.

0:19:02.560 --> 0:19:04.159
<v Speaker 3>I think there's a lot of questions about what the

0:19:04.160 --> 0:19:07.200
<v Speaker 3>future of sort of the hybrid cloud is, Jess, And

0:19:07.400 --> 0:19:09.040
<v Speaker 3>you know whether or not what's on premise and what's

0:19:09.080 --> 0:19:12.160
<v Speaker 3>not on premise, especially with the multinational companies where those

0:19:12.160 --> 0:19:14.760
<v Speaker 3>servers are based. You see that certainly with you know,

0:19:15.200 --> 0:19:18.240
<v Speaker 3>tech companies that right you know, required to co locate

0:19:18.280 --> 0:19:20.600
<v Speaker 3>servers in certain countries and then those servers and that

0:19:20.640 --> 0:19:23.359
<v Speaker 3>information is under the jurisdiction of that area, so it

0:19:23.359 --> 0:19:24.720
<v Speaker 3>gets really complicated.

0:19:26.359 --> 0:19:29.960
<v Speaker 1>You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us

0:19:29.960 --> 0:19:34.000
<v Speaker 1>live weekday afternoons from three to six Eastern on Bloomberg Radio,

0:19:34.200 --> 0:19:37.480
<v Speaker 1>the Bloomberg Business App, and YouTube. You can also listen

0:19:37.560 --> 0:19:40.680
<v Speaker 1>live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station,

0:19:41.119 --> 0:19:44.240
<v Speaker 1>Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

0:19:45.560 --> 0:19:45.840
<v Speaker 7>Tim.

0:19:45.880 --> 0:19:49.320
<v Speaker 2>As you know we discussed earlier in Today's Big Take

0:19:49.600 --> 0:19:53.159
<v Speaker 2>with Bloomberg's Matt Boyle, workers in Asia and Europe have

0:19:53.359 --> 0:19:56.440
<v Speaker 2>largely returned to offices at a faster pace then their

0:19:56.560 --> 0:20:01.680
<v Speaker 2>American counterparts more than three years after COVID shifted corporate life. Now,

0:20:01.800 --> 0:20:05.560
<v Speaker 2>US employers are demanding a workplace reset, and they want

0:20:05.600 --> 0:20:09.120
<v Speaker 2>it now on everything from action on societal issues and

0:20:09.280 --> 0:20:14.119
<v Speaker 2>work life boundaries per Edelman's latest trust Barometer reports. So

0:20:14.119 --> 0:20:16.840
<v Speaker 2>who better to walk us through this latest report back

0:20:16.880 --> 0:20:20.359
<v Speaker 2>with us again is Richard Edelman's chief executive officer at

0:20:20.359 --> 0:20:22.639
<v Speaker 2>the firm, who is joining us on zoom in New

0:20:22.720 --> 0:20:25.760
<v Speaker 2>York City to discuss these latest fightings. Thanks so much

0:20:25.840 --> 0:20:28.159
<v Speaker 2>Richard for chatting with us again. Walk us through what

0:20:28.240 --> 0:20:31.480
<v Speaker 2>you think are the biggest takeaways from these latest figures

0:20:31.480 --> 0:20:31.880
<v Speaker 2>that you have.

0:20:33.520 --> 0:20:36.919
<v Speaker 7>I think the first important finding is that my employer

0:20:37.320 --> 0:20:41.200
<v Speaker 7>is substantially trusted more than any other institution. So trust

0:20:41.240 --> 0:20:45.640
<v Speaker 7>is local in my CEO and in my company's ability

0:20:45.680 --> 0:20:49.919
<v Speaker 7>to make change twenty five points higher than the other institution,

0:20:50.160 --> 0:20:53.280
<v Speaker 7>sixty points higher than government in terms of ethics. The

0:20:53.320 --> 0:20:56.200
<v Speaker 7>second big finding is the trust gap for so called

0:20:56.280 --> 0:20:59.040
<v Speaker 7>deustless workers. In other words, people who are either on

0:20:59.080 --> 0:21:02.800
<v Speaker 7>the factory floor are operating as sort of independent contractors,

0:21:03.200 --> 0:21:07.159
<v Speaker 7>they have substantially less trust in institutions. The third big finding,

0:21:07.200 --> 0:21:12.040
<v Speaker 7>which you led the broadcast with, is workers want a reset.

0:21:12.240 --> 0:21:14.560
<v Speaker 7>Two thirds of people say I want to change my

0:21:14.640 --> 0:21:17.640
<v Speaker 7>work life balance. This is a three years after COVID

0:21:17.800 --> 0:21:23.400
<v Speaker 7>kind of reaction saying, you know, I'm not so fast, folks.

0:21:24.240 --> 0:21:27.480
<v Speaker 3>Are they? Richard still in control though? I mean, yes,

0:21:27.560 --> 0:21:30.000
<v Speaker 3>we're still adding over one hundred thousand jobs each month

0:21:30.000 --> 0:21:32.640
<v Speaker 3>here in the United States, but we're not hearing from

0:21:32.640 --> 0:21:34.680
<v Speaker 3>executives to the same extent that we were in the

0:21:34.760 --> 0:21:37.240
<v Speaker 3>last couple of years how much trouble they're having finding

0:21:37.240 --> 0:21:38.680
<v Speaker 3>employees who's in the driver's seed.

0:21:39.960 --> 0:21:43.480
<v Speaker 7>So employees think that they are because they're saying, by

0:21:43.600 --> 0:21:46.639
<v Speaker 7>six to one, seven to one, I want my CEO

0:21:46.720 --> 0:21:50.560
<v Speaker 7>to speak up on societal issues. I expect that, in fact,

0:21:50.640 --> 0:21:52.879
<v Speaker 7>you're going to listen to me when I want to

0:21:52.920 --> 0:21:57.760
<v Speaker 7>make change. I expect in a sense sort of a

0:21:57.800 --> 0:22:02.679
<v Speaker 7>partnership as opposed to a class employer employee relationship. But

0:22:03.080 --> 0:22:06.120
<v Speaker 7>this is being sorted out because the employer has the

0:22:06.160 --> 0:22:10.639
<v Speaker 7>tightrope also of don't get into politics and you know,

0:22:10.960 --> 0:22:15.560
<v Speaker 7>be careful on especially in the US, on steering clear

0:22:15.640 --> 0:22:19.240
<v Speaker 7>of you know, electro politics or you know, things that

0:22:19.600 --> 0:22:20.760
<v Speaker 7>will get you into trouble.

0:22:21.760 --> 0:22:25.120
<v Speaker 2>When you're talking about work life boundaries, what specifically are

0:22:25.280 --> 0:22:26.280
<v Speaker 2>employees looking for.

0:22:27.800 --> 0:22:31.159
<v Speaker 7>Employees are looking for, in a sense, a new compact

0:22:31.520 --> 0:22:34.800
<v Speaker 7>that says you'll listen to me, you'll come visit me

0:22:34.880 --> 0:22:36.920
<v Speaker 7>on the factory floor and get my input.

0:22:37.880 --> 0:22:38.399
<v Speaker 3>In fact, the.

0:22:38.440 --> 0:22:45.440
<v Speaker 7>Deskless worker who actually feels very disconnected is connected if

0:22:45.440 --> 0:22:49.520
<v Speaker 7>the company trusts them, so that that matter of going

0:22:49.560 --> 0:22:54.119
<v Speaker 7>out and listening. But also we want to hear in

0:22:54.160 --> 0:22:57.800
<v Speaker 7>the halls of power the voice of our CEO expressing

0:22:57.840 --> 0:22:58.520
<v Speaker 7>our views.

0:22:59.600 --> 0:23:02.919
<v Speaker 3>Does this change based on the type of industry that

0:23:02.960 --> 0:23:06.400
<v Speaker 3>the company's in, like you know, if you're working for

0:23:07.440 --> 0:23:10.040
<v Speaker 3>one company and in one sector versus a company and

0:23:10.080 --> 0:23:11.679
<v Speaker 3>another sector, is it is it different?

0:23:13.400 --> 0:23:17.800
<v Speaker 7>I think in tech and financial services it's sort of

0:23:17.840 --> 0:23:22.879
<v Speaker 7>the counter positions. But where financial companies are really ordering

0:23:22.960 --> 0:23:27.120
<v Speaker 7>employees back. The CEOs of tech companies because they have

0:23:27.240 --> 0:23:30.840
<v Speaker 7>you know, talents and or remote programmers theoretically can work solo.

0:23:31.000 --> 0:23:33.879
<v Speaker 3>But sorry, Richard, I mean in terms of trust.

0:23:34.760 --> 0:23:36.760
<v Speaker 7>But what we found in our own company, trust is

0:23:36.800 --> 0:23:40.720
<v Speaker 7>made up of four things ability, dependability, integrity, and purpose

0:23:41.160 --> 0:23:44.199
<v Speaker 7>and the ability to come together in the office I

0:23:44.200 --> 0:23:47.560
<v Speaker 7>think gives some sense of culture and also some sense

0:23:47.600 --> 0:23:52.000
<v Speaker 7>of shared purpose. So you know, we're encouraging the hybrid structure,

0:23:52.160 --> 0:23:54.480
<v Speaker 7>and several of our clients are following suit.

0:23:54.680 --> 0:23:56.760
<v Speaker 2>Huh, Tim and I have been discussing a lot this

0:23:56.840 --> 0:24:00.119
<v Speaker 2>afternoon with this theme about especially when we're talking about

0:24:00.119 --> 0:24:03.080
<v Speaker 2>the US and employers trying to get their employees back

0:24:03.160 --> 0:24:05.400
<v Speaker 2>into the office. What do you think is the catalyst

0:24:05.560 --> 0:24:07.880
<v Speaker 2>that change? That is that a potential because we don't

0:24:07.880 --> 0:24:10.520
<v Speaker 2>see a recession on the horizon, but at a particular

0:24:10.560 --> 0:24:12.399
<v Speaker 2>point in the business cycle, if you do see that

0:24:12.480 --> 0:24:15.080
<v Speaker 2>shift with the slowing economy and then job cuts are

0:24:15.119 --> 0:24:18.919
<v Speaker 2>coming is that the shift that employers think could potentially

0:24:18.920 --> 0:24:19.920
<v Speaker 2>shift the power there.

0:24:21.760 --> 0:24:27.159
<v Speaker 7>The power struggle is a standoff, and the smart company

0:24:27.160 --> 0:24:30.000
<v Speaker 7>will find a way between and move gradually if that's

0:24:30.040 --> 0:24:34.600
<v Speaker 7>the direction. But what employees really want is to feel

0:24:34.880 --> 0:24:38.680
<v Speaker 7>as if they're getting value from their employer, that the

0:24:38.720 --> 0:24:41.399
<v Speaker 7>employer's listening, that it's not going to go back to

0:24:41.440 --> 0:24:44.560
<v Speaker 7>the pre twenty twenty method of talk down to me.

0:24:45.560 --> 0:24:47.840
<v Speaker 7>I want to be represented, I want to be heard.

0:24:48.160 --> 0:24:50.760
<v Speaker 7>I want to feel as if I'm making change. By

0:24:51.119 --> 0:24:54.720
<v Speaker 7>eight to one, people say I'm prepared to come to

0:24:54.800 --> 0:24:57.560
<v Speaker 7>work for a company if that company stands up on

0:24:57.680 --> 0:25:01.760
<v Speaker 7>human rights, or on sustainability, or on race and diversity.

0:25:02.200 --> 0:25:03.640
<v Speaker 7>So that matters.

0:25:05.119 --> 0:25:07.639
<v Speaker 3>So when it comes to thinking about what this what

0:25:07.680 --> 0:25:10.320
<v Speaker 3>the takeaways are for leaders who are listening to our program,

0:25:10.400 --> 0:25:12.879
<v Speaker 3>who are watching our program right now, you what have

0:25:12.920 --> 0:25:14.199
<v Speaker 3>you learned in the years that you've been doing the

0:25:14.200 --> 0:25:15.960
<v Speaker 3>trust barometer and how it's changed, because I got to

0:25:15.960 --> 0:25:18.320
<v Speaker 3>tell you, you know, last couple times we've had you on

0:25:18.880 --> 0:25:22.520
<v Speaker 3>it's been similar findings, Richard, that the company is the

0:25:22.520 --> 0:25:25.160
<v Speaker 3>one where people, you know, people trust as an institution

0:25:25.680 --> 0:25:29.919
<v Speaker 3>more than government. So what's the big takeaway for executives listening.

0:25:31.600 --> 0:25:34.560
<v Speaker 7>My employer is so much more trusted than any other institution.

0:25:34.680 --> 0:25:40.080
<v Speaker 7>There are huge expectations of you in satisfying what an

0:25:40.119 --> 0:25:44.040
<v Speaker 7>employee wants from a societal point of view, work life balance.

0:25:44.520 --> 0:25:48.879
<v Speaker 7>It's complicated by the reality of politics in today's world.

0:25:49.160 --> 0:25:52.120
<v Speaker 7>So I would identify the three or four key issues

0:25:52.280 --> 0:25:54.399
<v Speaker 7>on which I'm going to speak which have to do

0:25:54.480 --> 0:25:57.640
<v Speaker 7>with your own values and your core competencies, and they're

0:25:57.680 --> 0:26:02.560
<v Speaker 7>probably in the area of sustainability, diversity and inclusion, geopolitics

0:26:02.560 --> 0:26:05.240
<v Speaker 7>when it matters like getting out of Russia, and lastly

0:26:05.320 --> 0:26:09.000
<v Speaker 7>wages and reskilling. On the other issues, talk with your employees,

0:26:09.040 --> 0:26:12.840
<v Speaker 7>talk internally, but be careful about what you say in

0:26:12.880 --> 0:26:16.160
<v Speaker 7>a public sense as an advocate, because again you'll get

0:26:16.240 --> 0:26:20.840
<v Speaker 7>right into the R versus D and the differences could

0:26:20.840 --> 0:26:21.719
<v Speaker 7>not be more stark.

0:26:22.440 --> 0:26:24.600
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, that's certainly an area where I mean, you know,

0:26:24.880 --> 0:26:26.119
<v Speaker 3>you don't want to bring that up when you're with

0:26:26.200 --> 0:26:28.400
<v Speaker 3>new people you meet her or in the workplace. Right

0:26:28.480 --> 0:26:32.879
<v Speaker 3>religion and politics, right topics. Richard Edelman, we love it

0:26:32.920 --> 0:26:35.000
<v Speaker 3>when you joined us CEO of Edelman joining us on

0:26:35.080 --> 0:26:38.439
<v Speaker 3>Zoom from New York City. Some really interesting findings in

0:26:38.480 --> 0:26:40.560
<v Speaker 3>this and you know we have Richard join us. We

0:26:40.600 --> 0:26:42.440
<v Speaker 3>haven't joined us. Several times a year often he joins

0:26:42.480 --> 0:26:45.439
<v Speaker 3>us from Davos where he is the World Economic Forum,

0:26:45.480 --> 0:26:48.200
<v Speaker 3>and you know, talking to these leaders, Jess, who are

0:26:48.200 --> 0:26:51.280
<v Speaker 3>making these decisions about the ways that they run their business.

0:26:55.440 --> 0:27:03.680
<v Speaker 1>The journal. No, no, no, j honey, Please, I'll travel.

0:27:04.880 --> 0:27:05.680
<v Speaker 4>I want to drive.

0:27:05.680 --> 0:27:08.800
<v Speaker 5>It's good question.

0:27:12.600 --> 0:27:14.760
<v Speaker 3>This is the drive to the clothes.

0:27:17.800 --> 0:27:19.040
<v Speaker 1>On Bloemberg Radio.

0:27:19.800 --> 0:27:21.520
<v Speaker 3>Well, it is that time time for us to drive

0:27:21.560 --> 0:27:23.600
<v Speaker 3>to the clothes. We are just shy at eighteen minutes

0:27:23.680 --> 0:27:27.200
<v Speaker 3>until the US markets closed here in New York. Very

0:27:27.200 --> 0:27:29.840
<v Speaker 3>please to add back with us this afternoon. Abbe Deschaponde,

0:27:29.920 --> 0:27:33.359
<v Speaker 3>Founder and chief investment Officer at center Stone Investors. Abbe

0:27:33.440 --> 0:27:36.159
<v Speaker 3>joining us on zoom from New York City. Abbe, how

0:27:36.200 --> 0:27:36.439
<v Speaker 3>are you.

0:27:37.600 --> 0:27:40.040
<v Speaker 5>I'm doing well. Unfortunately summer's over.

0:27:40.160 --> 0:27:42.960
<v Speaker 3>But is it? Though it's still so hot and it

0:27:42.960 --> 0:27:45.840
<v Speaker 3>doesn't seem like everyone's back to work, does it? Is

0:27:45.880 --> 0:27:46.720
<v Speaker 3>this summer over?

0:27:48.160 --> 0:27:48.320
<v Speaker 7>Oh?

0:27:49.359 --> 0:27:52.520
<v Speaker 3>Covid era, right, yeah, exactly. We've talked a lot about

0:27:52.520 --> 0:27:53.560
<v Speaker 3>that this afternoon.

0:27:53.920 --> 0:27:54.040
<v Speaker 2>Uh.

0:27:54.080 --> 0:27:55.920
<v Speaker 3>Hey, we love talking to you because you always come

0:27:55.960 --> 0:27:58.000
<v Speaker 3>with some great picks. We're gonna get to those in

0:27:58.080 --> 0:27:59.560
<v Speaker 3>just a minute. But first I want to start with

0:27:59.560 --> 0:28:02.760
<v Speaker 3>with Mac because you're kind of in a different different camp.

0:28:03.000 --> 0:28:05.040
<v Speaker 3>You're not really talking about a soft landing. You argue

0:28:05.040 --> 0:28:06.640
<v Speaker 3>that a mild recession could be coming.

0:28:08.320 --> 0:28:11.640
<v Speaker 5>Yeah, I mean very functionally similar though. I mean I'm

0:28:11.680 --> 0:28:14.640
<v Speaker 5>not looking for like a huge two thousand and eight

0:28:14.760 --> 0:28:19.280
<v Speaker 5>or nine or even twenty twenty ish decline and economic activity.

0:28:19.400 --> 0:28:21.800
<v Speaker 5>But I mean it's hard to argue that with the

0:28:21.960 --> 0:28:24.639
<v Speaker 5>kinds of interest rate changes that we've had and the

0:28:24.680 --> 0:28:28.040
<v Speaker 5>wild sort of spending spree that we were on that

0:28:27.400 --> 0:28:30.200
<v Speaker 5>that there shouldn't be a period of retrenchment. I think

0:28:30.200 --> 0:28:33.280
<v Speaker 5>there definitely will be, seems to be already started, have

0:28:33.400 --> 0:28:39.120
<v Speaker 5>already started. But whether that evolves into something, you know,

0:28:39.160 --> 0:28:41.080
<v Speaker 5>that's the end of the world, I just don't believe it.

0:28:41.160 --> 0:28:44.600
<v Speaker 5>But I guess, as a famous person once said, the

0:28:44.640 --> 0:28:45.600
<v Speaker 5>future is uncertain.

0:28:45.680 --> 0:28:51.040
<v Speaker 2>So what would be the catalyst to have growth slow down?

0:28:51.080 --> 0:28:53.600
<v Speaker 2>I'm looking at the ECFC function in the tournament that

0:28:53.680 --> 0:28:56.600
<v Speaker 2>obviously looks at the aggregate for economists, and they don't

0:28:56.600 --> 0:28:58.920
<v Speaker 2>have a quarter of for quarter contraction anymore for the

0:28:58.960 --> 0:29:00.000
<v Speaker 2>remaining quarters this year.

0:29:02.200 --> 0:29:05.120
<v Speaker 5>So so this is one of the issues is that

0:29:05.160 --> 0:29:08.680
<v Speaker 5>when we talk about the economy we're talking about. You know, well,

0:29:08.720 --> 0:29:12.680
<v Speaker 5>in the United States, a twenty trillion dollars behemoth. Economies

0:29:12.720 --> 0:29:19.080
<v Speaker 5>are adaptable, they're you know, they're that they're they're dynamic organisms, right,

0:29:19.200 --> 0:29:23.000
<v Speaker 5>So it's very rare for the entire economy just to

0:29:23.160 --> 0:29:26.040
<v Speaker 5>just implode. It's just too big. They're twenty pieces and

0:29:26.080 --> 0:29:30.080
<v Speaker 5>to twenty slices. So what we're I think the nuances

0:29:30.280 --> 0:29:33.760
<v Speaker 5>parts of the economy can slow down enough to give

0:29:33.800 --> 0:29:37.520
<v Speaker 5>the impression of a from a macro standpoint, a slowdown

0:29:37.560 --> 0:29:39.680
<v Speaker 5>that would qualify as a recession. That would be like

0:29:39.680 --> 0:29:43.720
<v Speaker 5>a zero percent, you know kind of growth rate. Where

0:29:43.720 --> 0:29:46.200
<v Speaker 5>where I have trouble, like most people seeing a major

0:29:46.240 --> 0:29:49.040
<v Speaker 5>problem is you know, is employment. Well that really turn

0:29:49.080 --> 0:29:51.960
<v Speaker 5>out with all these shortages and labor shortages we've had

0:29:52.000 --> 0:29:54.840
<v Speaker 5>we have, it's hard to see like a huge, uh,

0:29:54.920 --> 0:29:58.360
<v Speaker 5>you know, labor problem. And then at the same time,

0:29:58.400 --> 0:29:59.880
<v Speaker 5>you have a lot of stimulus and a lot of

0:29:59.880 --> 0:30:02.640
<v Speaker 5>the that five hundred billion dollars really hasn't gone through

0:30:02.640 --> 0:30:07.000
<v Speaker 5>the system yet from the i RA. So there's plenty

0:30:07.040 --> 0:30:11.360
<v Speaker 5>of stimulus. There's you know, the at least fiscal stimulus.

0:30:11.400 --> 0:30:14.240
<v Speaker 5>The monetary stimulus has obviously been tightened. But I mean,

0:30:14.240 --> 0:30:18.840
<v Speaker 5>you know, anecdotally many many, if not most, households refinanced

0:30:18.840 --> 0:30:21.760
<v Speaker 5>at very low rates just just a couple of years ago.

0:30:21.800 --> 0:30:23.840
<v Speaker 5>I mean, there's there's not as much of a direct

0:30:23.880 --> 0:30:26.480
<v Speaker 5>impact like this was a four or five year economic cycle.

0:30:26.520 --> 0:30:29.560
<v Speaker 5>I think interest rates would have much more of a

0:30:29.840 --> 0:30:34.640
<v Speaker 5>kind of impact. But households are turned out where it's

0:30:34.680 --> 0:30:36.760
<v Speaker 5>where you can see the slowdown occurring. It's in this

0:30:37.200 --> 0:30:39.160
<v Speaker 5>it's in the lower end. And we see this, and

0:30:39.240 --> 0:30:41.680
<v Speaker 5>you know the results from companies like a Dollar General,

0:30:42.360 --> 0:30:47.000
<v Speaker 5>which we recently began to purchase, where that consumer is

0:30:47.120 --> 0:30:50.280
<v Speaker 5>hurting from the interest rate increases. But you know, it's

0:30:50.280 --> 0:30:52.720
<v Speaker 5>a smaller segment. It's a lot of people obviously, but

0:30:52.720 --> 0:30:55.880
<v Speaker 5>it's a smaller segment for me as a proportion of

0:30:55.880 --> 0:30:59.680
<v Speaker 5>the total you know, spend in the economy. But you know,

0:30:59.720 --> 0:31:02.080
<v Speaker 5>you can definitely see that there's there's slow down here

0:31:02.120 --> 0:31:05.200
<v Speaker 5>and there. It's just I don't and most people probably

0:31:05.240 --> 0:31:07.440
<v Speaker 5>don't believe that there's going to be a direct hit

0:31:07.480 --> 0:31:10.200
<v Speaker 5>to the entire economy. Those types of you know, where

0:31:10.200 --> 0:31:15.840
<v Speaker 5>the economy quote unquote like uniformly succumbs to weakness, that's

0:31:15.920 --> 0:31:19.959
<v Speaker 5>that tends to be led by a financial you know issue,

0:31:20.720 --> 0:31:23.160
<v Speaker 5>you know, like a banking crisis like we had fifteen

0:31:23.240 --> 0:31:23.680
<v Speaker 5>years ago.

0:31:24.280 --> 0:31:26.880
<v Speaker 3>Just what about what about a regional banking crisis?

0:31:28.320 --> 0:31:30.720
<v Speaker 5>I mean I had had an issue for a brief

0:31:30.800 --> 0:31:36.080
<v Speaker 5>moment of time in that region. But I was just

0:31:36.160 --> 0:31:38.400
<v Speaker 5>talking to some mortgage brokers the other day, and the

0:31:38.440 --> 0:31:41.040
<v Speaker 5>banks are lending. The banks are lending freely, even to

0:31:41.200 --> 0:31:47.120
<v Speaker 5>the distressed homeowners for doing the home equity by lines

0:31:47.120 --> 0:31:50.160
<v Speaker 5>of credit, for instance, to pay off higher interest car loans.

0:31:50.200 --> 0:31:52.120
<v Speaker 5>I mean people are getting by somehow.

0:31:53.400 --> 0:31:55.000
<v Speaker 3>Okay, I'll be I want to talk about some of

0:31:55.040 --> 0:31:57.880
<v Speaker 3>the picks that that you brought with you. I want

0:31:57.880 --> 0:31:59.840
<v Speaker 3>to start with a company that I don't get to

0:31:59.840 --> 0:32:02.080
<v Speaker 3>tell about much, but I'm a cyclist and I saw

0:32:02.120 --> 0:32:04.720
<v Speaker 3>Shamano on your list and some people might know it

0:32:04.720 --> 0:32:08.720
<v Speaker 3>as a fishing tackle company, some as a bicycle component manufacturer.

0:32:08.720 --> 0:32:10.600
<v Speaker 3>Why is Shamano one of your picks?

0:32:11.800 --> 0:32:14.480
<v Speaker 5>You know, that's the like. So a lot of companies

0:32:14.560 --> 0:32:19.120
<v Speaker 5>went through COVID and had a huge you know, biking

0:32:19.560 --> 0:32:22.840
<v Speaker 5>became very popular during COVID because of an outdoor activity,

0:32:23.640 --> 0:32:26.239
<v Speaker 5>and so that a big spike in demand. And now

0:32:26.240 --> 0:32:28.480
<v Speaker 5>you're seeing the other side of that. You know a

0:32:28.480 --> 0:32:31.280
<v Speaker 5>lot of businesses have too much inventory. Retailers have a

0:32:31.320 --> 0:32:33.680
<v Speaker 5>lot of inventory a lot of different things, and especially bikes.

0:32:33.680 --> 0:32:38.080
<v Speaker 5>So there is a you know, this this issue kind

0:32:38.080 --> 0:32:42.880
<v Speaker 5>of cycling through quote unquote the industry, and Shamano's not

0:32:42.880 --> 0:32:45.800
<v Speaker 5>immune to that. Now that said, Chamano's a one of

0:32:45.960 --> 0:32:50.360
<v Speaker 5>really two brands in their space. They kind of more

0:32:50.400 --> 0:32:54.200
<v Speaker 5>or less dominate the bike parts business. These are derailers,

0:32:54.240 --> 0:32:56.040
<v Speaker 5>brake parts and things that you see in a bicycle,

0:32:57.160 --> 0:33:00.720
<v Speaker 5>and typically people suspect the bike with the parts. The

0:33:00.760 --> 0:33:02.520
<v Speaker 5>parts are actually more important than the bike in a

0:33:02.560 --> 0:33:05.400
<v Speaker 5>lot of cases. So it's a it's a branded good,

0:33:05.440 --> 0:33:09.640
<v Speaker 5>it's a it's a franchise. And where there's been technological

0:33:09.640 --> 0:33:14.680
<v Speaker 5>development like electronics, shifting, shifting and whatnot, no, Shamano's led that.

0:33:15.560 --> 0:33:19.400
<v Speaker 5>So to me, it has all the hallmarks of a franchise.

0:33:19.560 --> 0:33:24.520
<v Speaker 5>And in addition, which is somewhat still unusual for Japanese businesses,

0:33:24.800 --> 0:33:27.280
<v Speaker 5>they're very shared work oriented. They buy back stock, they

0:33:27.360 --> 0:33:30.760
<v Speaker 5>be a dividend, They understand what intrinsic value is for

0:33:30.840 --> 0:33:34.160
<v Speaker 5>their own business. And as a consequence, we have a

0:33:34.200 --> 0:33:36.040
<v Speaker 5>great deal of faith and management to be able to

0:33:36.200 --> 0:33:39.360
<v Speaker 5>manage through this type of cycle, and since it's a franchise,

0:33:39.680 --> 0:33:42.040
<v Speaker 5>we're more than willing to give them time.

0:33:42.320 --> 0:33:46.360
<v Speaker 2>We have about a minute left. But Ryanair and Porsche

0:33:46.600 --> 0:33:49.080
<v Speaker 2>also on your list. What do you like about them?

0:33:49.840 --> 0:33:53.120
<v Speaker 5>Well, right here, these are both I'll tyke yiner first.

0:33:53.200 --> 0:33:55.960
<v Speaker 5>Or like Shamano, is a brand is a brand?

0:33:56.720 --> 0:33:56.840
<v Speaker 4>Uh?

0:33:57.200 --> 0:34:01.080
<v Speaker 5>Now? Unlike Shimano, Ryanair's developed their brand by being the

0:34:01.080 --> 0:34:04.600
<v Speaker 5>lowest cost provider and basically commodity industry, which is airlines.

0:34:05.520 --> 0:34:10.360
<v Speaker 5>And they've done that by logging in gates and routes

0:34:11.000 --> 0:34:15.040
<v Speaker 5>to two airports that are off set out the outside

0:34:15.080 --> 0:34:18.160
<v Speaker 5>the city center. And they've done that and have been

0:34:18.320 --> 0:34:22.520
<v Speaker 5>able to provide the lowest cost airline ticket for for

0:34:22.640 --> 0:34:26.919
<v Speaker 5>European travelers. That's a business that, because of the cost

0:34:26.960 --> 0:34:30.000
<v Speaker 5>advantages that they have, seems to gain market share every

0:34:30.000 --> 0:34:32.440
<v Speaker 5>time there's a weakness, and then when things rebound, they

0:34:32.480 --> 0:34:38.280
<v Speaker 5>have emerged with greater number of gates and their routes expand.

0:34:38.320 --> 0:34:40.200
<v Speaker 5>As a results, they just continue to gain market share.

0:34:40.239 --> 0:34:41.680
<v Speaker 5>As much as you can be a franchise in the

0:34:41.719 --> 0:34:46.080
<v Speaker 5>airline industry, they've got them and it's very unlikely that

0:34:46.080 --> 0:34:48.600
<v Speaker 5>anyone can displace them. So let's you know prime the

0:34:48.640 --> 0:34:52.360
<v Speaker 5>primary reasons and again good management, good business model, and

0:34:52.920 --> 0:34:54.680
<v Speaker 5>the balance sheet is very solid to They own all

0:34:54.680 --> 0:34:56.680
<v Speaker 5>the airplanes, which gives me se comfort. They're not sitting

0:34:56.680 --> 0:34:57.960
<v Speaker 5>their releasing them.

0:34:58.440 --> 0:35:00.880
<v Speaker 3>We love it when you join us. That's Bish Bonde

0:35:01.760 --> 0:35:05.319
<v Speaker 3>joining us from Centerstone Investors. He's the founder in CIO

0:35:05.560 --> 0:35:08.040
<v Speaker 3>at the company. Joining us on zoom from New York City.

0:35:08.719 --> 0:35:13.360
<v Speaker 1>This is the Bloomberg Business Week podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,

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<v Speaker 1>and anywhere else you get your podcast. Listen live weekday

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0:35:20.920 --> 0:35:24.239
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0:35:24.280 --> 0:35:27.359
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<v Speaker 1>and always on the Bloomberg journyalone