Speaker 1: Welcome to Stuff You Should Know, a production of five
Speaker 1: Heart Radios How Stuff Works. Hey, and welcome to the podcast.
Speaker 1: I'm Josh Clark, and there's Charles W. Chuck Bryan over there,
Speaker 1: and Jerry's over there somewhere, I think in our office.
Speaker 1: And this is stuff you should know. Uh, the Swinging
Speaker 1: super Hip Cat edition. Swing States. They're the swing in
Speaker 1: the states of all They like to sleep with each
Speaker 1: other based on keys they took out of a fish ball. Uh.
Speaker 1: I should say up front thank you to how stuff
Speaker 1: Works dot Com for this article, along with Politico, NPR
Speaker 1: and I think blog I got some stuff from you.
Speaker 1: Sounds like you're giving an acceptance speech for for best
Speaker 1: election podcast episode. It's all right, we are not gonna
Speaker 1: win you. So this is on swing states, which uh
Speaker 1: are all the rage battleground states these days. Everybody loves
Speaker 1: them and have been for a while. But uh, some
Speaker 1: of this stuff I thought was even enlightened me and
Speaker 1: I thought I kind of knew most of this stuff. Yeah,
Speaker 1: it's one of those things that I found, um that
Speaker 1: you can make a lot more difficult than it actually is,
Speaker 1: at least just the general concept of swing states. But um,
Speaker 1: there's a lot of detail and info in history to it.
Speaker 1: That makes the whole thing really interesting. So to keep
Speaker 1: from making the whole thing more difficult than it is,
Speaker 1: let's just define swing states at the outset. Swing states
Speaker 1: are states during presidential elections in the United States here, um,
Speaker 1: that are so closely divided politically that they could go
Speaker 1: either way. They could vote one way or the other.
Speaker 1: And based on a lot of you know, governmental ins
Speaker 1: and outs that will go over depending on which way
Speaker 1: they they flip, they could make or break a presidential
Speaker 1: campaign and elect the president or deny somebody else the
Speaker 1: presidency at the same time. Even that's right, and I'm
Speaker 1: glad you said that, because more than anything else in
Speaker 1: this episode, we want to drive or I want to
Speaker 1: drive home. At least I'm sure you're on board. Um.
Speaker 1: A swing state is not just a state that is
Speaker 1: very closely divided politically among its constituents and it just
Speaker 1: could go one way or the other. It is a
Speaker 1: state where there are people who there are enough people
Speaker 1: in that state who can be persuaded to change who
Speaker 1: they vote for that it can make a state go
Speaker 1: one way or the other. We're talking down to the
Speaker 1: thousands or even hundreds of votes, and that is why
Speaker 1: it is so, so, so so important that everybody votes.
Speaker 1: Everybody votes, but especially if you live in one of
Speaker 1: these swing states, because there are, believe it or not,
Speaker 1: there are people that still haven't made up their mind
Speaker 1: in this country, which is really surprising in in this
Speaker 1: particular election, because things have gotten superpartisan and polarized in America,
Speaker 1: and they had been going that way for many, many
Speaker 1: years now. But I mean, it is I don't want
Speaker 1: to say it's reached its apex. I hope it's reached
Speaker 1: its apex. I'm sure it could get way worse. But
Speaker 1: things are real polarized here, so it is very surprising
Speaker 1: that there's undecided voters. And I remember from our election
Speaker 1: polling episode, we were saying one of the reasons that
Speaker 1: the state polling was so far off is because there
Speaker 1: were so many undecided voters at the end of two
Speaker 1: thousand and sixteen, That in and of itself is pretty
Speaker 1: surprising because the candidates were so different, things were so polarized.
Speaker 1: Then it's even more surprising now that there's any undecided voters,
Speaker 1: but they're out there. There's not a ton of them,
Speaker 1: but there's enough of them to swing election and swing
Speaker 1: of state um Brookings institutions as sent or more of
Speaker 1: a presidential candidate spending occurs in the swing states, and
Speaker 1: you know they're they're spending on ads, a lot of it,
Speaker 1: as ad bys and social media advis um, you know,
Speaker 1: robot calling, stuff like that. But we should go over
Speaker 1: just you know, I know we did one on the
Speaker 1: electoral college, but just for our friends across the many ponds,
Speaker 1: we should give kind of a quick overview of the
Speaker 1: very odd way that we do things here. Yeah, because
Speaker 1: everybody thinks in the United States that everybody goes to
Speaker 1: the polls and during a national election like the presidential
Speaker 1: election and elects the president, one person has one vote,
Speaker 1: and that is definitely true. Each person does have a vote.
Speaker 1: But the thing is, we have something called the electoral college,
Speaker 1: and rather than directly elect the president through a popular vote,
Speaker 1: we have an indirect way of electing the president where
Speaker 1: all those people who go to the polls are going
Speaker 1: to the polls to ca to ballot whether they know
Speaker 1: it or not, for the the electors for each party.
Speaker 1: So if you voted for Donald Trump in two thousand twenties,
Speaker 1: say what you're voting for is not necessarily Donald Trump.
Speaker 1: You're voting for your state's Republican Party electors to go
Speaker 1: to the electoral College to cast their vote for Donald Trump.
Speaker 1: Hopefully that is the indirect way of electing the president
Speaker 1: that we have. And under this situation, under this indirect
Speaker 1: electoral college setup that we have, you can actually get
Speaker 1: elected president without winning the popular vote. And that's what
Speaker 1: happened in two thousand sixteen. Yes, twice, very recently happened
Speaker 1: in the two thousand election where Al Gore I think
Speaker 1: one the popular vote by half a million votes. Happened
Speaker 1: in two thousands sixteen where Hillary Clinton won the popular
Speaker 1: vote by almost three million votes, like two point nine million.
Speaker 1: And then it happened a couple of times in the
Speaker 1: I think the nineteenth century didn't four times, Yeah, the
Speaker 1: other two are pretty far back. And all four times, UM,
Speaker 1: Republican candidates lost the popular vote and ended up being
Speaker 1: the winning the election. UM. And and we'll get into,
Speaker 1: you know, changes on the horizon as far as that goes.
Speaker 1: But to kind of put a pin in the electoral
Speaker 1: college how it specifically works, as UM, each senator from
Speaker 1: each state, which is two senators, because each state has
Speaker 1: to get a vote, and then UM for each representative
Speaker 1: in the House. Uh, they get a vote, and everywhere
Speaker 1: except for Maine in Nebraska does what's called a winner
Speaker 1: take all. So um, if if everyone in Georgia or
Speaker 1: you know, if Georgia votes for for, let's say, Joe Biden,
Speaker 1: then everybody, all the electors would have to vote for
Speaker 1: Joe Biden and cast that vote in Maine. In Nebraska,
Speaker 1: what they do is I think they and the goal here,
Speaker 1: by the ways, two and seventy electoral votes if you
Speaker 1: want to win the presidency. But they do the district system,
Speaker 1: which is they award two of those electoral votes to
Speaker 1: the statewide popular vote winner, and then they go, I
Speaker 1: think just a district by district, don't they Yeah, they do,
Speaker 1: and so so um you can win. You know, if
Speaker 1: you win your statewide election in Maine or in UM Nebraska,
Speaker 1: you get two electoral votes automatically, and then you get
Speaker 1: one for each district that you want, which is it
Speaker 1: seems a little more fair. It does seem a little
Speaker 1: more fair. But I saw that UM on fair vote
Speaker 1: dot Org. They they said, if you do the math,
Speaker 1: it's actually way less fair a raational level. Yeah, like
Speaker 1: maybe it works for Maine in Nebraska, but if all
Speaker 1: states did that, you would be able to eke out
Speaker 1: and even more imbalance between an electoral college win and
Speaker 1: a loss of the popular vote. I saw somebody put
Speaker 1: out that they there is a path to two hundred
Speaker 1: and seventy electoral votes, so you would win the presidency
Speaker 1: while also getting just like of the popular vote. Um
Speaker 1: that you like to think that could never happen, but
Speaker 1: apparently mathematically with this setup of the electoral college, it
Speaker 1: could happen. And the reason why is because one the
Speaker 1: electoral college exists, like you said, and then too because
Speaker 1: of that winner take all system to where it doesn't
Speaker 1: matter whether you win a state by one vote, you
Speaker 1: get all of the electoral votes for that one state,
Speaker 1: and so um in in in creating swing states, the
Speaker 1: electoral college also creates what are called safe states. And
Speaker 1: a safe state is where so many people so reliably
Speaker 1: vote for the party that that candidate UM is running for, UH,
Speaker 1: that you can just count on that state giving like
Speaker 1: winning their their electoral votes, and you actually start with
Speaker 1: a base of that that that like, UM, let's say
Speaker 1: there's a hundred and seventy solid electoral votes among like
Speaker 1: twenty states for Democrats. Right, that is what you would
Speaker 1: rely on, not just on election day but throughout the campaign.
Speaker 1: And so you're not spending much time or money in
Speaker 1: those states because those are safe states. You don't need
Speaker 1: to It doesn't make any sense to do that. It
Speaker 1: makes way more sense to spend all of your time
Speaker 1: and money and attention on those swing states because those
Speaker 1: are the ones that aren't necessarily safe, but they're also
Speaker 1: not necessarily leaning the other way either, and you could
Speaker 1: conceivably put those swing states together to create that two
Speaker 1: hundred and seventy or more electoral votes which should lead
Speaker 1: you to the presidency. Right. But you know, it's gotten
Speaker 1: a little tricky here in recent years because, uh, there
Speaker 1: are a few swing states that are kind of really
Speaker 1: solidly swingy, and then there have been a few that
Speaker 1: are more swingy or less swingy. And you have to
Speaker 1: make a decision as a candidate where you're going to
Speaker 1: spend your money in your time, and that's where polling
Speaker 1: comes in. UM. A lot of people say that perhaps
Speaker 1: Hillary Clinton didn't spend enough time in certain states that
Speaker 1: ended up flipping to Donald Trump. Um, it's all strategy. UM,
Speaker 1: I think now we can maybe take a little extended
Speaker 1: sidebar here about this whole blue state red state thing
Speaker 1: with I thought was very interesting because it here in
Speaker 1: America we have blue states and red states. The blue
Speaker 1: states are the Democratic leaning states. The red states are
Speaker 1: the Republican leading states. Um. If you are sort of
Speaker 1: in the mix, maybe a swing state, they might call
Speaker 1: you purple in the news. If you hear that, that's
Speaker 1: what that means. But it didn't always used to be
Speaker 1: these colors. Uh, And I got this from NPR. I
Speaker 1: found it interesting to know that when the colors first
Speaker 1: started being assigned in the mid nineteen seventies, Uh, the uh,
Speaker 1: the Democrats were red and the Republicans were blue. Yeah.
Speaker 1: So supposedly blue was traditionally the republicans um color because
Speaker 1: it was the color of the Union during the Civil War. UM,
Speaker 1: and the Union was led by Abraham Lincoln, who was Republican.
Speaker 1: And then also apparently in Europe, the conservative parties are
Speaker 1: typically associated with the color blue, So it made more sense,
Speaker 1: at least at first, to have Republicans be blue and
Speaker 1: Democrats be read. And supposedly that's where it debuted back
Speaker 1: in nineteen seventy six here in the United States on
Speaker 1: NBC because NBC was the first network to um have
Speaker 1: to go full color, and so in election Night nineteen
Speaker 1: seventies six, they said, check out our amazing interactive map.
Speaker 1: Blue states are gonna be ones that Republicans have one,
Speaker 1: Red states are gonna be ones that Democrats have one,
Speaker 1: and um, have you did you see a picture of
Speaker 1: the map. It looks like a giant stained glass window
Speaker 1: the United States. It does not look super flashy or
Speaker 1: anything now, but at the time it was like, knock
Speaker 1: your socks off. Technologically advanced, I guess, yeah. But UM,
Speaker 1: here's the thing is, those colors weren't locked in and
Speaker 1: like there was never any you know, vote about those
Speaker 1: colors or anything like that. They just sort of went
Speaker 1: that way. Um, As more and more TV networks went color, UM,
Speaker 1: they went with other colors, and it got a little
Speaker 1: bit confusing. Um. Depending on which which network you were watching,
Speaker 1: you might see different colors representing different parties. I think
Speaker 1: always red and blue. But they were kind of flip flopped.
Speaker 1: And it wasn't until two thousand uh and the Washington Post,
Speaker 1: Uh they credit Tim Russert. Um, I think the late
Speaker 1: Tim Russert. He passed away to men. Yeah, they credit
Speaker 1: Tim Russert with kind of locking in what we now
Speaker 1: know as blue states and red states, Blue being for Democrat,
Speaker 1: red for Republican during the two thousand election between Gore
Speaker 1: and Bush. And these colors are important because it's uh
Speaker 1: and one of these writers in here, what's his name,
Speaker 1: Bill Bishop, Uh, he's from Texas. He wrote a book
Speaker 1: called The Big Sort, and he kind of makes a
Speaker 1: really good point that has become a shorthand of not
Speaker 1: just a leaning of the state, but sort of a lifestyle.
Speaker 1: Like you hear things like, you know, it's a really
Speaker 1: blue neighborhood or a red community, and you kind of
Speaker 1: know that's shorthand for a certain thing in this country now. Yeah,
Speaker 1: And and part of the problem with with especially designating
Speaker 1: entire states as like red or blue um is that
Speaker 1: it makes it seem like there's this homogeneous group that
Speaker 1: is that is that the whole state thinks that way,
Speaker 1: And that's not necessarily true. I Mean, there's plenty of
Speaker 1: states out there that that are considered red states, but
Speaker 1: they were won by one and a half percent or
Speaker 1: three percent. You know, it's like a very close call,
Speaker 1: but it went Republican in the presidential election, so it's
Speaker 1: a red state or like you said, you know you
Speaker 1: can you can get it down to like community level,
Speaker 1: that kind of thing. And in doing so, all you're
Speaker 1: doing is sewing this division, that of tribal ism that
Speaker 1: exists in the United States to where it's just so
Speaker 1: easy to have this allegiance to blue or red. They
Speaker 1: don't even make it donkey or elephant any longer. It's
Speaker 1: blue and red. It's one of the most basic things
Speaker 1: you can you can sort by, which is colors um
Speaker 1: and it's a it's a it's a real problem in
Speaker 1: that it's somehow stokes that mentality that in group out
Speaker 1: group mentality that is so problematic in the United States
Speaker 1: right now and is drowning the country as we speak. Basically,
Speaker 1: I hate to say it, but it's absolutely true. It
Speaker 1: really is. And it's especially annoying if you have political
Speaker 1: leanings like I do and live in a state like
Speaker 1: Georgia that is for the past you know, uh twenty
Speaker 1: plus years been solidly read and then you know, you
Speaker 1: have you know, you used to live in California, have
Speaker 1: plenty of friends in California who say things about you know,
Speaker 1: places like Georgia with such a disdain right, and just
Speaker 1: it just bothers me so much because it is, you know,
Speaker 1: these and the thing can be said for people on
Speaker 1: the other side of the political spectrum. It's not exclusive
Speaker 1: to to me being a liberal in Georgia. It's I'm
Speaker 1: sure the same frustrations happened for Republicans in Massachusetts. Absolutely, yeah,
Speaker 1: I'm I'm quite sure in that. I think it was.
Speaker 1: I don't know what article that came from. They point
Speaker 1: out that those people are some of the most die
Speaker 1: hard partisans you'll find, you know, people who are minority
Speaker 1: in their state because they feel like they're really carrying
Speaker 1: the flag for their party or whatever. Um. But yeah,
Speaker 1: it's it's it's a real problem and all it takes
Speaker 1: away all nuance, and it also makes people think like, oh,
Speaker 1: you're you're from a red state. I can't work with you.
Speaker 1: My constituents won't like it if I work with you
Speaker 1: red state person, rather than you're from Wisconsin and I'm
Speaker 1: from California. Let's figure out how to make this highway
Speaker 1: bill make more sense kind of thing, you know. Yeah,
Speaker 1: Emily and I have a lot of conversations about the
Speaker 1: lack of nuance in today's uh world, and it's I
Speaker 1: think that's one of the biggest problems we have going
Speaker 1: on right now. Nuance has been lost in everything, is
Speaker 1: carved very much into red and blue and black and white.
Speaker 1: And it's sad. And you know what is what another
Speaker 1: thing that makes it sad too is it's not just
Speaker 1: like that's just appealing to the lowest common denominator. It
Speaker 1: activates in all people, including brilliant, intelligent people who are
Speaker 1: otherwise normally level headed, that they still have that part
Speaker 1: of their brain stimilar They're like on blue arm red. Um.
Speaker 1: I I affiliate with that, and I hate the opposite.
Speaker 1: It's um. It is that when you lose nuance, a
Speaker 1: lot of stuff goes out the window with it. All Right, well,
Speaker 1: let's take a break. That was our first soapbox of
Speaker 1: the day. I didn't I thought we started out on
Speaker 1: a soapbox was going to be I think pretty even
Speaker 1: handed soapboxes. So right, sure, alright, well we'll come back
Speaker 1: and we'll build another soapbox in the next couple of
Speaker 1: minutes and we'll be back right after this and shocking, okay, um,
Speaker 1: so with we're back on swing states, right, and I
Speaker 1: think we should kind of talk about how how they
Speaker 1: swing or how they have swung or swang uh recently
Speaker 1: because with swing states like you, you kind of get
Speaker 1: this idea that they're they're the same all all the time.
Speaker 1: That's just not the case, especially not lately. Uh. It
Speaker 1: seems like in two thousand and sixteen we're both watershed
Speaker 1: years as far as just completely recoloring the electoral map. Uh.
Speaker 1: And in Bill Clinton did it and in two thousand
Speaker 1: and sixteen Donald Trump did it, and it just surprised
Speaker 1: everybody both times. Yeah, ninety two and if uh, you know,
Speaker 1: if you're our age or younger, you might not have
Speaker 1: been super hip to politics when you were in high school,
Speaker 1: let's say, or early college, and you may not know
Speaker 1: that there was what was called a red wall. They
Speaker 1: didn't call it a red wall back then, but it
Speaker 1: was a red wall where there was UM. Republicans had
Speaker 1: a pretty firm lock on the electoral college. Uh in
Speaker 1: that from nineteen sixty six to nine, twenty one states
Speaker 1: voted Republican every single election. Uh. And that included you
Speaker 1: might be surprised to hear, uh, California, Illinois and New Jersey,
Speaker 1: in Virginia and here's the one that's going to really
Speaker 1: make your heart stop. Vermont. Yeah. Traditionally, Republican voted twenty
Speaker 1: one times in a row, and that is a electoral votes. So, uh,
Speaker 1: they the Democrats had a pretty big disadvantage going into
Speaker 1: nine historically, meaning that they had to win more than
Speaker 1: three quarters of the remaining electoral votes. Um for these
Speaker 1: you know, quote unquote competitive or up in the upper
Speaker 1: grab states. And that's not counting d C, which Democrats
Speaker 1: have always got a lock on. Yeah, for the last
Speaker 1: fourteen elections, DC has always gone Democrat, right. Um, So
Speaker 1: that the common wisdom was that when George H. W.
Speaker 1: Bush went up for re election, not only was he
Speaker 1: the incumbent president, which means that you're supposed to be
Speaker 1: favored typically. Um, he also had this red wall which
Speaker 1: I don't know what they called it, but this lock
Speaker 1: on the electoral college, and uh, it was presumed that
Speaker 1: he was probably gonna win. And then Bill Clinton came along,
Speaker 1: and um, he flipped nine states from that red wall,
Speaker 1: not just the swing states, he flipped nine of those
Speaker 1: red wall states, um, which was a hundred and eighteen
Speaker 1: electoral votes and ended up winning three hundred and seventy
Speaker 1: two hundred and sixty eight for in the electoral College votes.
Speaker 1: Somebody bring me a sledgehammer. That's basically what he did, though,
Speaker 1: I mean, it was it was pretty unprecedented, and like
Speaker 1: you said, just flipped the political thinking in this country
Speaker 1: on its ear and flipped them so hard that California, Illinois,
Speaker 1: New Jersey, and Vermont haven't haven't voted Republican since the election.
Speaker 1: So really reshaped the map. Yeah, he flipped those Republican
Speaker 1: lock states into Democrat lock states. That's right. And now
Speaker 1: they call it the Blue Wall, and they do call
Speaker 1: it the blue wall now because blue is firmly ensconced
Speaker 1: as Democrat. And there are eighteen states supposedly among this
Speaker 1: blue wall, along with d C that have voted Democrat
Speaker 1: and each of the most recent six elections from nine
Speaker 1: to two, well previously from ninety two to right. And
Speaker 1: that's when Trump came in and flipped it on it's
Speaker 1: here once again. Yeah, So he flipped some traditionally UM
Speaker 1: Democrats strongholds like Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, UM. And he he
Speaker 1: did so by first of all, energizing voters that hadn't
Speaker 1: really been seen at the polls very much um like
Speaker 1: UH voters without higher education diploma. A lot of rural workers,
Speaker 1: especially blue collar workers who had been lifelong Democrats, went
Speaker 1: out and voted for Trump UM and ended up taking
Speaker 1: I think he flipped more than just those three. Oh yeah, Um,
Speaker 1: he flipped five Maine and Minnesota. No, no, I'm sorry,
Speaker 1: he flipped those three, and that's how he won the
Speaker 1: electoral college. But he almost won main and he almost
Speaker 1: won Minnesota, and both of them were pretty pretty strong
Speaker 1: Democratic UH states. Minnesota hadn't voted for Republican in like
Speaker 1: fifty years, and he came close to flipping that. And
Speaker 1: so here's the thing we're talking about all these states
Speaker 1: being flipped, because when a state gets lipped in an election,
Speaker 1: especially if it's kind of close or narrowly held rather
Speaker 1: than flipped, that state is probably going to be a
Speaker 1: battle ground or swing state in the next election. Yeah.
Speaker 1: So if you're wondering, I mean, we'll list out the
Speaker 1: swing states and sort of in that drama right here.
Speaker 1: But if you're wondering if you might be in a
Speaker 1: swing state, it has to do with quite a few things. UM. Obviously,
Speaker 1: the voting history there being predictable, UM, if you voted
Speaker 1: for a long long time for a specific party, you're
Speaker 1: probably not a swing state. UM. If your demo demographics
Speaker 1: in in that state are UM traditionally really supports the
Speaker 1: same candidate, then you're probably not going to be a
Speaker 1: swing state. The fact is that most voters in most
Speaker 1: regions of the country, or most regions of the states
Speaker 1: in this country, they vote based on UM. They have
Speaker 1: really different opinions based on the experience of just literally
Speaker 1: the physical play is where they live. Right, So like
Speaker 1: the rural voters typically go UM GOP a Republican, whereas
Speaker 1: people in metropolitan areas, major metropolitan areas frequently go towards
Speaker 1: the Democrats, and they have different experiences based on their
Speaker 1: geography UM and depending on how balanced that is, how
Speaker 1: big the metropolis is, how big the rural area is
Speaker 1: in a state UM compared to whatever metropolis or capital
Speaker 1: is there, that can make that state of swing state.
Speaker 1: Like North Carolina is a really good example of that.
Speaker 1: There's a lot of highly educated tech types, scientific researchers
Speaker 1: who live in the research triangle UM in North Carolina,
Speaker 1: but there's also a ton of rural voters to who
Speaker 1: are active in politics, and those two balance each other out,
Speaker 1: and so North Carolina is very frequently a swing state
Speaker 1: in presidential elections because of that. Yeah, and you know,
Speaker 1: I want to be clear, we're not like disparaging people
Speaker 1: who don't have college diplomas. Um, there are all kinds
Speaker 1: of ways to be smart. Uh. There are a lot
Speaker 1: of people with college diplomas that can't change their oil
Speaker 1: on their car, or you know, or build defense and
Speaker 1: those those are other types of smarts. And they're all
Speaker 1: different ways to be smart. Yeah. Yeah, I'm not saying
Speaker 1: that at all. Now. I think if you listen to
Speaker 1: our election polling episode, a divide between college educated and
Speaker 1: non college educated voters was created in two thousands, sixteens
Speaker 1: where it hadn't been there before, and now that is
Speaker 1: a major part of American politics. Right, so along with
Speaker 1: North Carolina this year and again, you know, this is
Speaker 1: what they expect to see. Um, it could be turned on.
Speaker 1: It's here once again, and states could be in the
Speaker 1: mix that we didn't even forecast. You never know. But
Speaker 1: right now they're saying that North Carolina, Arizona, Florida, always
Speaker 1: Florida is so important, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin. Uh. Some people
Speaker 1: say New Hampshire. Some people say Georgia, Uh, that's that's
Speaker 1: a big one. Um, Georgia hasn't voted for a Democratic
Speaker 1: presidential candidate, I think, I mean, has it been since Clinton? Yeah,
Speaker 1: that's what I would say since. And I think Texas
Speaker 1: remarkably and Georgia have both drifted left by four points
Speaker 1: with each of the last couple of elections. And they're
Speaker 1: saying that, you know, it's gonna be very tight in Georgia,
Speaker 1: and I don't think anyone is anticipating that it will flip.
Speaker 1: But it's purple and in the mix for the first
Speaker 1: time in a long time. Yeah, which is really saying
Speaker 1: something because I mean in Georgia, for many years, if
Speaker 1: you were a Democrat, it just did not matter, Like
Speaker 1: you just didn't need to bother to vote. And that's
Speaker 1: a big problem with swing states in the electoral college
Speaker 1: that we'll talk about that metaphorically, by the way, right exactly,
Speaker 1: But I mean there's this this whole concept of a
Speaker 1: wasted vote in a safe state for the opposition party,
Speaker 1: their votes wasted. Um. But we'll talk about that later.
Speaker 1: But um, just like there's some some surprising states that
Speaker 1: are now considered swing states or battleground states. There's also
Speaker 1: some that have customarily been swing states that aren't necessarily
Speaker 1: And the big standout one for that is Ohio. Ohio
Speaker 1: has voted for the president um correctly or I should
Speaker 1: say they went they the nominee or the candidate that
Speaker 1: that Ohio voted for has been the president, the one
Speaker 1: who won the presidential race in like dozens of of
Speaker 1: of elections, maybe not dozens, but they've been voting correctly
Speaker 1: for the president, correctly picking the president. I feel like
Speaker 1: I'm digging myself deeper into a hole here. Anyway. What
Speaker 1: that says about Ohio is that, wow, Ohio is like
Speaker 1: really a thinking group politically speaking, because we have had
Speaker 1: Republican presidents and we have had Democrat president through throughout
Speaker 1: the last few decades and Ohio has you know, voted
Speaker 1: uh differently, you know, just about every time. And that
Speaker 1: says that Ohio is the longstanding swing state. Well, Ohio
Speaker 1: is flipped in two thousand and sixteen, and there's a
Speaker 1: lot of political observers who are like, Ohio is now
Speaker 1: leans conservative, now a red state, and that's a really
Speaker 1: surprising turn of events. For Yeah, I think Colorado, Ohio
Speaker 1: and Virginia are three of the traditional swing states that
Speaker 1: have been taken off that list, Arizona and Georgia. I
Speaker 1: don't think Texas is officially on the list at all,
Speaker 1: but I think because Texas has always been so solidly conservative,
Speaker 1: for it to eke towards the Democrats at all just
Speaker 1: makes it a lot of Hey, so there's a lot
Speaker 1: more talk about it on the news and stuff like
Speaker 1: that because there's so much media influence, and I think
Speaker 1: that the liberal media probably thinks that, like, oh, Texas
Speaker 1: is leaning, maybe we can help push him over the edge.
Speaker 1: We talk about it all the time. Yeah, probably, um,
Speaker 1: because that's how things work if you listen to the
Speaker 1: polling podcast. Uh. And like you mentioned earlier, in Minnesota,
Speaker 1: UM hasn't voted for a Republican in in about fifty years,
Speaker 1: and they are you know, they have inched a little bit, right. Yeah.
Speaker 1: I think Trump just missed Minnesota and Clinton just barely one.
Speaker 1: Minnesota by like three and Maine by one and a
Speaker 1: half percent. So those two are definitely in play like
Speaker 1: they haven't been in a while. Should we take another break.
Speaker 1: Let's take another break, and then we're gonna come back
Speaker 1: and talk about get this swing states, Josh and Shock
Speaker 1: and things like stop so Chuck. One of the things
Speaker 1: that we talked about early on is that UM swing
Speaker 1: states basically tell campaigns where they need to concentrate their focus,
Speaker 1: their money, their candidates time. Uh, you know, election stops,
Speaker 1: that kind of thing, stumping UM and they do that
Speaker 1: like that's that's where the vast majority of the money
Speaker 1: goes is it's advertising campaigns in these swing states. Florida
Speaker 1: is a really good example of a longstanding swing state
Speaker 1: that gets tons and tons of advertising money. Yeah. Florida
Speaker 1: is such an interesting state to me because it is
Speaker 1: it's really hard to pin down politically, and I think
Speaker 1: it's because, I think, more so than almost any other
Speaker 1: state except maybe California, I feel like there are more
Speaker 1: versions of Florida than almost any other state has versions
Speaker 1: of itself. Absolutely, and it's not I mean, Florida is
Speaker 1: not small. It's not the side of California. But you know,
Speaker 1: you think about the Gulf Coast and then inland from
Speaker 1: the Gulf Coast, very different people. Yeah, the people Inland
Speaker 1: wouldn't be caught dead in Florabama. Yeah. You think about
Speaker 1: Miami Beach and that area and in Key West and
Speaker 1: Fort Lauderdale, and then you've got the interior of like
Speaker 1: the Tampa Clearwater area, which is really different. And then
Speaker 1: let's not forget about the most magical place on Earth, Orlando. Well,
Speaker 1: you've got Orlando, and then you've also got up in
Speaker 1: the north, you know, borderline Georgia. You have places like
Speaker 1: Jacksonville and St. Augustine, and just Florida has so many
Speaker 1: different kinds of places within its own state that it
Speaker 1: doesn't surprise me that it's really hard to pin down
Speaker 1: politically because it's hard to pin down just sort of culturally,
Speaker 1: I think, right, and because you have so many different
Speaker 1: places that geographically informed the voters, um, that are so
Speaker 1: demographically diverse, all in one state, then that of course
Speaker 1: is going to be a swing state in Florida probably
Speaker 1: always will be a swing state just for those reasons.
Speaker 1: So the retirees are a big um. They always point
Speaker 1: to retirees in Florida traditional conservatives. But apparently the youngest
Speaker 1: three generations amount to registered voters there now, so that's surprising. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I mean, I guess the sad way to say it
Speaker 1: is is that many of these people are dying. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I mean, surely, I mean, there's an elderly population is
Speaker 1: going to eventually die off, then you've got a younger
Speaker 1: population is actually going to age into it. But it
Speaker 1: seems like right now they're the elderly population in Florida
Speaker 1: has been losing ground numbers wise, while the younger populations
Speaker 1: have been gaining ground. There coming after you for a
Speaker 1: state because you need all those young people to work
Speaker 1: to take care of all those old peopleres So um,
Speaker 1: Florida gets a tremendous amount of attention, a lot of money,
Speaker 1: a lot of campaign visits, all that stuff. And because
Speaker 1: it's a swing state, all swing states get that kind
Speaker 1: of stuff um in presidential elections. But people in other states,
Speaker 1: especially in solid states that have gone one way for
Speaker 1: many many election cycles, those people say, well, hey, what
Speaker 1: about us. We want attention, we want these campaign stops.
Speaker 1: We have things that are important to us that we
Speaker 1: want to talk to you about and hear from you about.
Speaker 1: We don't care about Florida. We care about uh Idaho,
Speaker 1: So come to Idaho and talk to us in Idaho.
Speaker 1: And the candidate usually says like, I don't even know
Speaker 1: where Idaho is. Please leave me alone. I'm trying to
Speaker 1: pay attention to Florida and you're being very distracting right now. Yeah.
Speaker 1: And here's the thing, Like, in my mind, I say,
Speaker 1: who cares if a presidential candidate comes and talks to
Speaker 1: people at a dumb rally, like like does that really matter?
Speaker 1: But what they do is, you know, it's not just
Speaker 1: a broad sort of let me make a stop there.
Speaker 1: It's very pinpointed and calculated, like they might be going
Speaker 1: after a really specific constituency there, like because how close
Speaker 1: some of these swing states are. Uh, and they might say,
Speaker 1: you know what, if we can get auto workers to
Speaker 1: vote for you will be set. Or if we can
Speaker 1: get people that work on on public roads and infrastructure
Speaker 1: flipped our way, then we can win by a thousand votes.
Speaker 1: And so they may make pit stops in these states
Speaker 1: to go to the factory. I mean, that's why do
Speaker 1: you do that stuff? It's not just to uh, you know,
Speaker 1: it's I mean, it's it's all just very calculated and
Speaker 1: very specific. Right because the viewer on TV is like, hey,
Speaker 1: I work in a factory and they're in a factory
Speaker 1: right now. They must mean that they really identify with
Speaker 1: my needs and wants. Well, true, And that's someone from
Speaker 1: another state that also just happens to work in a factory.
Speaker 1: But the people in that state, I feel like, Wow,
Speaker 1: they're here to talk to the coal miners, right. I
Speaker 1: can't believe they came to Michigan. No one ever comes
Speaker 1: to Michigan on purpose. Hey, we went to Michigan on
Speaker 1: purpose once, are we? We haven't ragged on Detroit in
Speaker 1: a long time. No, it's been a while, but that's
Speaker 1: really what we're talking about. Michigan is code for Detroit
Speaker 1: when you're talking about not going to Michigan. But it's
Speaker 1: just interesting how pinpointed and how um just like razor
Speaker 1: sharp and focused and laser focus campaigns are these days
Speaker 1: with talking to very specific groups of people. If they
Speaker 1: think they can win a thousand votes out of a state,
Speaker 1: that that could make a difference. It can because again
Speaker 1: here's here's why a thousand lit literally a thousand votes
Speaker 1: could make the president UM in a state because of
Speaker 1: that winner take all electoral votes. Whereas if like those
Speaker 1: states use the district system like Maine in Nebraska, UM,
Speaker 1: you know, if you won, you might get half of
Speaker 1: the delegates and they get the other half. Basically, but
Speaker 1: the fact that it's winner take all is that. Yeah,
Speaker 1: those extra thousand votes really count in a good sized
Speaker 1: state for ten electoral votes twenty electoral votes, So it's
Speaker 1: definitely worth spending that much time and focus on one
Speaker 1: single state, and a lot of other states resent a
Speaker 1: lot of non swing states. So safe states resents swing
Speaker 1: states because they say, basically, it's up to Ohio and
Speaker 1: Virginia to decide who gets to be president. The rest
Speaker 1: of us are going to go vote is we're expected
Speaker 1: to because if you're in a safe state, it doesn't
Speaker 1: matter if you win by a thousand votes or win
Speaker 1: by a million votes. You're gonna it's winner take all
Speaker 1: again too, So you're not gonna pay that much attention,
Speaker 1: and really you're not in a way, you're not producing
Speaker 1: the president. That's a little cynical in my opinion, because
Speaker 1: without that solid safe state, you wouldn't have that foundation
Speaker 1: that the president the candidate is building the swing state
Speaker 1: um electoral votes off of. I don't think that's fully accurate,
Speaker 1: but there does seem to be like some sour grapes
Speaker 1: among safe state people. That makes sense to me most
Speaker 1: of all. Chuck when you're talking walking about people who
Speaker 1: feel like their vote is wasted because they're voting for
Speaker 1: the party. That's the opposite of how the state traditionally goes.
Speaker 1: So if you're a Georgia voter and you're a Democrat
Speaker 1: for the last several elections, you could very easily feel
Speaker 1: like your vote was so wasted you might not even
Speaker 1: bother going to the pulse because your vote in this
Speaker 1: sense of electoral college. And this is a really good
Speaker 1: reason to do away with the electoral college. As far
Speaker 1: as the electoral college is concerned, your vote didn't count you.
Speaker 1: You had no reason to go vote as far as
Speaker 1: electing the president goes, because it was washed away and
Speaker 1: drowned out by all the other votes that went towards
Speaker 1: the other candidate. And since it's a winner take all
Speaker 1: system of electoral votes, that that your vote didn't matter
Speaker 1: because they were always going to win all those delegates
Speaker 1: because you were going to get out voted. Right. But um,
Speaker 1: and and I'm glad you said president specifically, you should
Speaker 1: always vote for the president, of course, But um, there
Speaker 1: are so many ballot measures in local um local considerations
Speaker 1: on the ballot local elections that really have such an
Speaker 1: impact that you always always always vote UM. But it's
Speaker 1: almost like It's almost like filling out your census form.
Speaker 1: In a way, it's the only information that we have
Speaker 1: of where a state is politically, is you casting your vote.
Speaker 1: So if you cast your vote in Georgia like I do,
Speaker 1: and Donald Trump wins Georgia, again, it's not a wasted
Speaker 1: vote because the Democratic Party will look up the numbers
Speaker 1: and say, wow, you know, like they're doing. Now, look
Speaker 1: how many you know, Stacy Abrams almost got elected. The
Speaker 1: first African American female governor in the United States, almost
Speaker 1: won in Georgia in an election that many people thought
Speaker 1: was undermined by the Republican candidate with voter suppression, and
Speaker 1: that was a big deal. So now that's why so
Speaker 1: much attention is on Georgia, because it's like you're filling
Speaker 1: out your little census thing, you're casting that vote, and
Speaker 1: they're saying, Okay, well George is in the mix. Now
Speaker 1: we're gonna We're gonna campaign in Georgia. Moore. Plus, also,
Speaker 1: there's another really good reason to vote in those situations
Speaker 1: as well. Um, Like, I'm sure other voters in Vermont
Speaker 1: who felt like they were probably wasting their vote in
Speaker 1: two but they went dutifully to the polls and exercise
Speaker 1: their real, basic important right as a citizen there, right
Speaker 1: to vote. Um. And Bill Clinton ended up flipping the state.
Speaker 1: Had those people been like it's just a waste to
Speaker 1: vote anyway and stay at home, that state wouldn't have
Speaker 1: been flipped. The same goes for Wisconsin or Michigan for
Speaker 1: Trump in two thousand sixteen. Um. So there's a lot
Speaker 1: of good reasons to go out and vote, even if
Speaker 1: you feel like your vote is wasted. That's just it's
Speaker 1: just too cynical, you know, And I understand especially in
Speaker 1: the in the during the coronavirus pandemic. You know, things
Speaker 1: are definitely different, but under normal circumstances, especially the idea
Speaker 1: of just staying home and not voting unless you're protesting
Speaker 1: against your party's candidate. That's different. But candidate okay, sure,
Speaker 1: I mean just the idea of getting out to the
Speaker 1: polls on election dame, participating in government on that one
Speaker 1: day every four years. Even it's important, it's it's just
Speaker 1: important in ways that you can't fully put your finger on,
Speaker 1: but you just know it's important and important enough to
Speaker 1: just do it. Well, it's a right that people in
Speaker 1: this country literally lost their lives to ensure and it's
Speaker 1: a right that not everyone in this country had until
Speaker 1: fairly recently. Uh, and so it would be a very
Speaker 1: sort of privileged. I know that word is thrown around
Speaker 1: a lot, but it's a it's a truly privileged frame
Speaker 1: of mind to think, why bother voting when so many
Speaker 1: people in this country, women and people of color didn't
Speaker 1: even have the right to vote, and you know, within
Speaker 1: the last like hundred years. So it just that's something
Speaker 1: that that's the only thing that really burns me up.
Speaker 1: Vote for whoever you want to vote for. But if
Speaker 1: you sit at home and you don't even vote, then
Speaker 1: just get out and you know what, Yeah, vote or die,
Speaker 1: as he did, he says. Yeah. So one other thing
Speaker 1: that really has grabbed me in the last like several
Speaker 1: years is the the idea. You know, when I was
Speaker 1: a younger, lad, I was like, voting doesn't even matter,
Speaker 1: doesn't count. Everything is controlled by the illuminati anyways, right, So, um,
Speaker 1: the idea that that the Russians are meddling in our
Speaker 1: election and that the the candidates take um the the
Speaker 1: election so seriously. In super paxuris so much money to
Speaker 1: spend and try to sway people's public opinions. The idea
Speaker 1: that that actually happens in real life, to me, goes
Speaker 1: to support the idea that your votes actually do count,
Speaker 1: that voting really does matter in the United States still,
Speaker 1: and things are not so thrown off course and controlled
Speaker 1: and under the thumb of people who who um, you know,
Speaker 1: are really pulling the strings and calling the shots that
Speaker 1: that actually doesn't exist, That in reality, voting matters, and
Speaker 1: I think that the threats to voting that we've seen
Speaker 1: over the last like several years, UM have really kind
Speaker 1: of driven that home for me. Yeah, And you know what,
Speaker 1: by the time this comes out, will be a couple
Speaker 1: of months to go before the election, UM, or actually
Speaker 1: maybe one month to go. Check your voter registration. Make
Speaker 1: sure you know where you're going to vote. If you're
Speaker 1: voting early, make sure you understand that if you're voting
Speaker 1: absentee or by mail, make sure you fully understand how
Speaker 1: that all works. Don't be surprised on election day. You
Speaker 1: don't want any surprises. You want to make sure you
Speaker 1: know exactly how you're going to vote and that you
Speaker 1: can ensure that you can vote absolutely UM. Go to
Speaker 1: USA dot gov to check out voter registration UM, and
Speaker 1: to make sure that you are like to confirm that
Speaker 1: you're registered to vote. I still check. Yeah, I checked
Speaker 1: recently too, and I tweeted it out on the Stuff
Speaker 1: You Should Know podcast M Twitter platform to totally UM.
Speaker 1: And we should put a bow on this one by
Speaker 1: talking a little bit about the National Popular Vote Interstate
Speaker 1: Compact and this, uh, the n p V. I see,
Speaker 1: this is a group of states that advocate for a
Speaker 1: different plan moving forward. Uh. These are states and people
Speaker 1: that say, how can a candidate win by three million
Speaker 1: votes or five thousand votes and not be president? Because
Speaker 1: that is clearly not the will of the people. We
Speaker 1: have a broken system. Let's get rid of this electoral college.
Speaker 1: And right now there are Washington, Oregon, California, Colorado, New Mexico, Vermont,
Speaker 1: New York, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland,
Speaker 1: d C. And Hawaii are all signed up in a
Speaker 1: past legislation to enter this compact, with several more pending. Ohio, Pennsylvania,
Speaker 1: South Carolina, and Virginia are pending. Right. And so what
Speaker 1: this compact says is the state signs onto the compact
Speaker 1: that says, UM, under normal electoral college rules, we um
Speaker 1: give our electoral votes to whoever wins the statewide ballot. Instead,
Speaker 1: we're going to give it to whoever wins the national vote,
Speaker 1: the national popular vote. So even if say, um, Joe
Speaker 1: Biden loses Idaho, if Idaho was signed on to this
Speaker 1: and this thing, we're in effect, but he won the
Speaker 1: national popular vote, Idaho would give its electoral votes to Biden.
Speaker 1: So that the states are gonna follow the popular vote
Speaker 1: and basically go around the electoral college, not using by
Speaker 1: using the electoral college. Yeah, because you can't abolish it. It
Speaker 1: It would take a constitutional amendment and ratification by thirty
Speaker 1: eight states I believe to get rid of the electoral college.
Speaker 1: This requires none of that. It's the states signing on
Speaker 1: to go around the electoral college by using the electoral college.
Speaker 1: And I mean we should say to the electoral college
Speaker 1: is part of the Framer's vision for the Constitution, but
Speaker 1: they specifically added this provision to keep the popular vote
Speaker 1: from selecting the president. They wanted to keep this elite
Speaker 1: group of politicos in charge of who actually picked the president.
Speaker 1: And that's they created the electoral college to get in
Speaker 1: the way of the popular vote. Yeah, it's interesting, it
Speaker 1: really is. So that's swing states. Ah, that swing states.
Speaker 1: If you want to know more about swing states, start
Speaker 1: reading up on swing states, start reading up on politics.
Speaker 1: It's pretty interesting stuff. And like we said earlier, go vote,
Speaker 1: just vote. Uh. And since I said that, everybody's time
Speaker 1: for listener mail. Uh. This is from McKenna bridge And
Speaker 1: this is in defensive baby carrots. Uh. Just like Chuck,
Speaker 1: the thought of baby carrots disgusted me in the past,
Speaker 1: conjuring up, conjuring up images of towering piles of food
Speaker 1: waste that I imagined where the byproduct of these smooth
Speaker 1: little suckers. But we got it all wrong, my friend.
Speaker 1: While the baby carrot is of course a very manicured
Speaker 1: and aesthetically fleasing version of the real carrot pulled straight
Speaker 1: from the soil, their invention basically changed the entire carrot
Speaker 1: industry forever. Uh. And there was a guy name Mike
Speaker 1: euro Sick who decided to smooth carrots down in the
Speaker 1: nineteen eighties into these little, aerodynamic, bite sized cylinders, and
Speaker 1: they were called baby carrots. Uh. He figured carrots are
Speaker 1: ugly and uh, too plentiful to profit to profit from
Speaker 1: his farmers, so they had a long growing season and
Speaker 1: the people just weren't buying them. So Mike Yousroic, I'm sorry,
Speaker 1: Eurosic introduces the baby carrot, and boom carrot sales absolutely skyrocketed,
Speaker 1: and even today's baby carrots frequently top the list for
Speaker 1: the largest share of supermarket sales. Asking about the peels, guys, well,
Speaker 1: they are just about the perfect byproduct for making carrot
Speaker 1: juice baby character tasty, convenient, and turns out a wonderful
Speaker 1: invention the more you know, right, Anyway, I'm not completely
Speaker 1: caught up on your podcast, so maybe someone's beat me
Speaker 1: to the punch, but I didn't want to chance y'all
Speaker 1: making fools of yourself the next time baby baby Carrots
Speaker 1: comes up. Think you guys are great. To keep up
Speaker 1: the amazing work. You're a listener and baby carrot convert
Speaker 1: McKenna bridge and I even looked it up too, and
Speaker 1: I think I saw that it was a myth that
Speaker 1: they are bleached. M but it sounds like something I
Speaker 1: would buy into. It sounds like something i'd buy into.
Speaker 1: Two big carrot or I'm sorry, small carrot carrots are bleached.
Speaker 1: The Illuminati really runs things, So you know that I
Speaker 1: haven't fully vetted all that, but that's what mckinnabridge says,
Speaker 1: is that they really turned around carrots as a whole
Speaker 1: and that they do use those uh shavings. That's really
Speaker 1: carret juice, is what she says. Well, McKenna, that was
Speaker 1: really great stuff. Thank you for trying to keep us
Speaker 1: from making fools of ourselves again. It's not gonna know,
Speaker 1: it won't stick. If you want to get in touch
Speaker 1: with us, like McKenna did, you can send us an
Speaker 1: email to Stuff podcast at iHeart radio dot com. Stuff
Speaker 1: you should know is a production of iHeart Radios. How
Speaker 1: stuff works for more podcasts for my heart radio because
Speaker 1: that the iHeart Radio a Apple podcasts are wherever you
Speaker 1: listen to your favorite shows. H m hm