WEBVTT - What's the deal with swing states? 0:00:01.120 --> 0:00:03.520 Welcome to Stuff You Should Know, a production of five 0:00:03.600 --> 0:00:12.600 Heart Radios How Stuff Works. Hey, and welcome to the podcast. 0:00:12.680 --> 0:00:15.400 I'm Josh Clark, and there's Charles W. Chuck Bryan over there, 0:00:15.400 --> 0:00:18.079 and Jerry's over there somewhere, I think in our office. 0:00:19.120 --> 0:00:23.040 And this is stuff you should know. Uh, the Swinging 0:00:23.440 --> 0:00:30.120 super Hip Cat edition. Swing States. They're the swing in 0:00:30.160 --> 0:00:33.040 the states of all They like to sleep with each 0:00:33.080 --> 0:00:39.559 other based on keys they took out of a fish ball. Uh. 0:00:39.600 --> 0:00:42.320 I should say up front thank you to how stuff 0:00:42.360 --> 0:00:46.239 Works dot Com for this article, along with Politico, NPR 0:00:46.960 --> 0:00:50.040 and I think blog I got some stuff from you. 0:00:50.040 --> 0:00:54.920 Sounds like you're giving an acceptance speech for for best 0:00:55.240 --> 0:00:58.880 election podcast episode. It's all right, we are not gonna 0:00:58.920 --> 0:01:03.480 win you. So this is on swing states, which uh 0:01:03.560 --> 0:01:07.640 are all the rage battleground states these days. Everybody loves 0:01:07.680 --> 0:01:10.760 them and have been for a while. But uh, some 0:01:10.840 --> 0:01:13.200 of this stuff I thought was even enlightened me and 0:01:13.240 --> 0:01:16.080 I thought I kind of knew most of this stuff. Yeah, 0:01:16.440 --> 0:01:20.240 it's one of those things that I found, um that 0:01:20.360 --> 0:01:22.959 you can make a lot more difficult than it actually is, 0:01:23.120 --> 0:01:26.920 at least just the general concept of swing states. But um, 0:01:26.959 --> 0:01:30.400 there's a lot of detail and info in history to it. 0:01:30.440 --> 0:01:33.400 That makes the whole thing really interesting. So to keep 0:01:33.400 --> 0:01:36.360 from making the whole thing more difficult than it is, 0:01:36.480 --> 0:01:41.600 let's just define swing states at the outset. Swing states 0:01:41.600 --> 0:01:47.200 are states during presidential elections in the United States here, um, 0:01:47.880 --> 0:01:53.680 that are so closely divided politically that they could go 0:01:53.840 --> 0:01:57.680 either way. They could vote one way or the other. 0:01:58.160 --> 0:02:01.040 And based on a lot of you know, governmental ins 0:02:01.040 --> 0:02:04.560 and outs that will go over depending on which way 0:02:04.320 --> 0:02:08.600 they they flip, they could make or break a presidential 0:02:08.639 --> 0:02:11.679 campaign and elect the president or deny somebody else the 0:02:11.760 --> 0:02:16.120 presidency at the same time. Even that's right, and I'm 0:02:16.120 --> 0:02:18.440 glad you said that, because more than anything else in 0:02:18.480 --> 0:02:20.359 this episode, we want to drive or I want to 0:02:20.440 --> 0:02:24.040 drive home. At least I'm sure you're on board. Um. 0:02:24.080 --> 0:02:27.480 A swing state is not just a state that is 0:02:27.760 --> 0:02:32.200 very closely divided politically among its constituents and it just 0:02:32.240 --> 0:02:34.680 could go one way or the other. It is a 0:02:34.720 --> 0:02:38.440 state where there are people who there are enough people 0:02:38.480 --> 0:02:42.000 in that state who can be persuaded to change who 0:02:42.000 --> 0:02:45.120 they vote for that it can make a state go 0:02:45.240 --> 0:02:49.040 one way or the other. We're talking down to the 0:02:49.080 --> 0:02:52.960 thousands or even hundreds of votes, and that is why 0:02:53.000 --> 0:02:57.080 it is so, so, so so important that everybody votes. 0:02:57.880 --> 0:03:00.120 Everybody votes, but especially if you live in one of 0:03:00.160 --> 0:03:03.320 these swing states, because there are, believe it or not, 0:03:04.440 --> 0:03:06.680 there are people that still haven't made up their mind 0:03:06.800 --> 0:03:10.359 in this country, which is really surprising in in this 0:03:10.919 --> 0:03:16.079 particular election, because things have gotten superpartisan and polarized in America, 0:03:16.080 --> 0:03:17.960 and they had been going that way for many, many 0:03:18.040 --> 0:03:20.680 years now. But I mean, it is I don't want 0:03:20.680 --> 0:03:24.239 to say it's reached its apex. I hope it's reached 0:03:24.240 --> 0:03:26.560 its apex. I'm sure it could get way worse. But 0:03:26.800 --> 0:03:29.600 things are real polarized here, so it is very surprising 0:03:29.639 --> 0:03:32.600 that there's undecided voters. And I remember from our election 0:03:32.680 --> 0:03:35.040 polling episode, we were saying one of the reasons that 0:03:35.160 --> 0:03:37.640 the state polling was so far off is because there 0:03:37.640 --> 0:03:39.800 were so many undecided voters at the end of two 0:03:39.840 --> 0:03:42.800 thousand and sixteen, That in and of itself is pretty 0:03:42.800 --> 0:03:46.280 surprising because the candidates were so different, things were so polarized. 0:03:46.320 --> 0:03:50.360 Then it's even more surprising now that there's any undecided voters, 0:03:50.400 --> 0:03:52.560 but they're out there. There's not a ton of them, 0:03:52.560 --> 0:03:55.200 but there's enough of them to swing election and swing 0:03:55.240 --> 0:04:02.480 of state um Brookings institutions as sent or more of 0:04:02.520 --> 0:04:06.280 a presidential candidate spending occurs in the swing states, and 0:04:06.640 --> 0:04:09.320 you know they're they're spending on ads, a lot of it, 0:04:09.360 --> 0:04:12.920 as ad bys and social media advis um, you know, 0:04:13.040 --> 0:04:16.360 robot calling, stuff like that. But we should go over 0:04:16.480 --> 0:04:18.039 just you know, I know we did one on the 0:04:18.080 --> 0:04:22.760 electoral college, but just for our friends across the many ponds, 0:04:23.320 --> 0:04:25.360 we should give kind of a quick overview of the 0:04:25.560 --> 0:04:28.520 very odd way that we do things here. Yeah, because 0:04:28.560 --> 0:04:31.720 everybody thinks in the United States that everybody goes to 0:04:31.800 --> 0:04:35.760 the polls and during a national election like the presidential 0:04:35.760 --> 0:04:39.960 election and elects the president, one person has one vote, 0:04:40.640 --> 0:04:43.400 and that is definitely true. Each person does have a vote. 0:04:43.880 --> 0:04:47.160 But the thing is, we have something called the electoral college, 0:04:47.240 --> 0:04:51.680 and rather than directly elect the president through a popular vote, 0:04:52.320 --> 0:04:55.920 we have an indirect way of electing the president where 0:04:55.960 --> 0:04:58.400 all those people who go to the polls are going 0:04:58.440 --> 0:05:01.320 to the polls to ca to ballot whether they know 0:05:01.400 --> 0:05:06.840 it or not, for the the electors for each party. 0:05:06.920 --> 0:05:10.159 So if you voted for Donald Trump in two thousand twenties, 0:05:10.160 --> 0:05:13.520 say what you're voting for is not necessarily Donald Trump. 0:05:13.720 --> 0:05:18.040 You're voting for your state's Republican Party electors to go 0:05:18.160 --> 0:05:21.320 to the electoral College to cast their vote for Donald Trump. 0:05:21.480 --> 0:05:25.039 Hopefully that is the indirect way of electing the president 0:05:25.080 --> 0:05:29.040 that we have. And under this situation, under this indirect 0:05:29.080 --> 0:05:33.840 electoral college setup that we have, you can actually get 0:05:33.880 --> 0:05:38.240 elected president without winning the popular vote. And that's what 0:05:38.279 --> 0:05:44.119 happened in two thousand sixteen. Yes, twice, very recently happened 0:05:44.160 --> 0:05:47.080 in the two thousand election where Al Gore I think 0:05:47.120 --> 0:05:50.560 one the popular vote by half a million votes. Happened 0:05:50.560 --> 0:05:53.360 in two thousands sixteen where Hillary Clinton won the popular 0:05:53.440 --> 0:05:56.159 vote by almost three million votes, like two point nine million. 0:05:56.320 --> 0:05:57.719 And then it happened a couple of times in the 0:05:57.839 --> 0:06:01.240 I think the nineteenth century didn't four times, Yeah, the 0:06:01.279 --> 0:06:04.840 other two are pretty far back. And all four times, UM, 0:06:04.960 --> 0:06:08.680 Republican candidates lost the popular vote and ended up being 0:06:08.839 --> 0:06:12.719 the winning the election. UM. And and we'll get into, 0:06:12.800 --> 0:06:14.920 you know, changes on the horizon as far as that goes. 0:06:15.040 --> 0:06:17.279 But to kind of put a pin in the electoral 0:06:17.320 --> 0:06:22.080 college how it specifically works, as UM, each senator from 0:06:22.120 --> 0:06:24.640 each state, which is two senators, because each state has 0:06:24.680 --> 0:06:29.920 to get a vote, and then UM for each representative 0:06:29.920 --> 0:06:33.440 in the House. Uh, they get a vote, and everywhere 0:06:33.520 --> 0:06:36.479 except for Maine in Nebraska does what's called a winner 0:06:36.520 --> 0:06:40.359 take all. So um, if if everyone in Georgia or 0:06:40.440 --> 0:06:43.680 you know, if Georgia votes for for, let's say, Joe Biden, 0:06:43.720 --> 0:06:47.480 then everybody, all the electors would have to vote for 0:06:47.600 --> 0:06:51.360 Joe Biden and cast that vote in Maine. In Nebraska, 0:06:51.440 --> 0:06:54.920 what they do is I think they and the goal here, 0:06:54.920 --> 0:06:57.240 by the ways, two and seventy electoral votes if you 0:06:57.240 --> 0:07:01.280 want to win the presidency. But they do the district system, 0:07:01.279 --> 0:07:04.039 which is they award two of those electoral votes to 0:07:04.120 --> 0:07:07.640 the statewide popular vote winner, and then they go, I 0:07:07.680 --> 0:07:11.560 think just a district by district, don't they Yeah, they do, 0:07:11.760 --> 0:07:15.520 and so so um you can win. You know, if 0:07:15.560 --> 0:07:19.880 you win your statewide election in Maine or in UM Nebraska, 0:07:20.440 --> 0:07:25.120 you get two electoral votes automatically, and then you get 0:07:25.120 --> 0:07:27.960 one for each district that you want, which is it 0:07:28.000 --> 0:07:30.560 seems a little more fair. It does seem a little 0:07:30.560 --> 0:07:32.880 more fair. But I saw that UM on fair vote 0:07:32.880 --> 0:07:35.040 dot Org. They they said, if you do the math, 0:07:35.080 --> 0:07:38.800 it's actually way less fair a raational level. Yeah, like 0:07:38.880 --> 0:07:41.040 maybe it works for Maine in Nebraska, but if all 0:07:41.120 --> 0:07:43.280 states did that, you would be able to eke out 0:07:43.760 --> 0:07:48.480 and even more imbalance between an electoral college win and 0:07:48.520 --> 0:07:51.720 a loss of the popular vote. I saw somebody put 0:07:51.760 --> 0:07:56.800 out that they there is a path to two hundred 0:07:56.800 --> 0:08:01.760 and seventy electoral votes, so you would win the presidency 0:08:01.880 --> 0:08:07.559 while also getting just like of the popular vote. Um 0:08:07.680 --> 0:08:09.720 that you like to think that could never happen, but 0:08:09.760 --> 0:08:13.960 apparently mathematically with this setup of the electoral college, it 0:08:14.040 --> 0:08:17.400 could happen. And the reason why is because one the 0:08:17.440 --> 0:08:20.440 electoral college exists, like you said, and then too because 0:08:20.480 --> 0:08:23.200 of that winner take all system to where it doesn't 0:08:23.240 --> 0:08:26.240 matter whether you win a state by one vote, you 0:08:26.280 --> 0:08:29.720 get all of the electoral votes for that one state, 0:08:30.160 --> 0:08:35.760 and so um in in in creating swing states, the 0:08:35.800 --> 0:08:39.440 electoral college also creates what are called safe states. And 0:08:39.480 --> 0:08:43.559 a safe state is where so many people so reliably 0:08:43.679 --> 0:08:49.880 vote for the party that that candidate UM is running for, UH, 0:08:49.920 --> 0:08:52.240 that you can just count on that state giving like 0:08:52.320 --> 0:08:56.720 winning their their electoral votes, and you actually start with 0:08:56.800 --> 0:08:59.720 a base of that that that like, UM, let's say 0:08:59.840 --> 0:09:04.280 there's a hundred and seventy solid electoral votes among like 0:09:04.800 --> 0:09:08.280 twenty states for Democrats. Right, that is what you would 0:09:08.320 --> 0:09:12.160 rely on, not just on election day but throughout the campaign. 0:09:12.440 --> 0:09:14.680 And so you're not spending much time or money in 0:09:14.720 --> 0:09:16.920 those states because those are safe states. You don't need 0:09:16.960 --> 0:09:18.960 to It doesn't make any sense to do that. It 0:09:19.000 --> 0:09:21.400 makes way more sense to spend all of your time 0:09:21.640 --> 0:09:25.200 and money and attention on those swing states because those 0:09:25.240 --> 0:09:27.880 are the ones that aren't necessarily safe, but they're also 0:09:27.960 --> 0:09:30.800 not necessarily leaning the other way either, and you could 0:09:30.800 --> 0:09:34.160 conceivably put those swing states together to create that two 0:09:34.280 --> 0:09:37.840 hundred and seventy or more electoral votes which should lead 0:09:37.840 --> 0:09:41.080 you to the presidency. Right. But you know, it's gotten 0:09:41.080 --> 0:09:44.920 a little tricky here in recent years because, uh, there 0:09:44.920 --> 0:09:46.959 are a few swing states that are kind of really 0:09:47.000 --> 0:09:50.960 solidly swingy, and then there have been a few that 0:09:51.080 --> 0:09:54.080 are more swingy or less swingy. And you have to 0:09:54.080 --> 0:09:55.920 make a decision as a candidate where you're going to 0:09:55.960 --> 0:09:58.560 spend your money in your time, and that's where polling 0:09:58.640 --> 0:10:02.440 comes in. UM. A lot of people say that perhaps 0:10:02.520 --> 0:10:05.520 Hillary Clinton didn't spend enough time in certain states that 0:10:05.960 --> 0:10:10.720 ended up flipping to Donald Trump. Um, it's all strategy. UM, 0:10:10.760 --> 0:10:13.839 I think now we can maybe take a little extended 0:10:13.880 --> 0:10:16.400 sidebar here about this whole blue state red state thing 0:10:16.400 --> 0:10:20.480 with I thought was very interesting because it here in 0:10:20.520 --> 0:10:23.720 America we have blue states and red states. The blue 0:10:23.720 --> 0:10:27.120 states are the Democratic leaning states. The red states are 0:10:27.160 --> 0:10:30.560 the Republican leading states. Um. If you are sort of 0:10:30.559 --> 0:10:32.600 in the mix, maybe a swing state, they might call 0:10:32.679 --> 0:10:35.040 you purple in the news. If you hear that, that's 0:10:35.040 --> 0:10:38.040 what that means. But it didn't always used to be 0:10:38.120 --> 0:10:41.040 these colors. Uh, And I got this from NPR. I 0:10:41.080 --> 0:10:44.000 found it interesting to know that when the colors first 0:10:44.000 --> 0:10:50.160 started being assigned in the mid nineteen seventies, Uh, the uh, 0:10:50.200 --> 0:10:54.840 the Democrats were red and the Republicans were blue. Yeah. 0:10:54.920 --> 0:11:00.480 So supposedly blue was traditionally the republicans um color because 0:11:00.480 --> 0:11:03.760 it was the color of the Union during the Civil War. UM, 0:11:03.800 --> 0:11:06.760 and the Union was led by Abraham Lincoln, who was Republican. 0:11:07.320 --> 0:11:10.760 And then also apparently in Europe, the conservative parties are 0:11:10.800 --> 0:11:13.440 typically associated with the color blue, So it made more sense, 0:11:13.480 --> 0:11:17.320 at least at first, to have Republicans be blue and 0:11:17.600 --> 0:11:21.160 Democrats be read. And supposedly that's where it debuted back 0:11:21.200 --> 0:11:24.440 in nineteen seventy six here in the United States on 0:11:24.640 --> 0:11:28.280 NBC because NBC was the first network to um have 0:11:28.600 --> 0:11:31.720 to go full color, and so in election Night nineteen 0:11:31.760 --> 0:11:34.560 seventies six, they said, check out our amazing interactive map. 0:11:35.760 --> 0:11:38.480 Blue states are gonna be ones that Republicans have one, 0:11:38.800 --> 0:11:41.000 Red states are gonna be ones that Democrats have one, 0:11:41.520 --> 0:11:43.400 and um, have you did you see a picture of 0:11:43.440 --> 0:11:47.680 the map. It looks like a giant stained glass window 0:11:48.120 --> 0:11:51.240 the United States. It does not look super flashy or 0:11:51.240 --> 0:11:53.320 anything now, but at the time it was like, knock 0:11:53.400 --> 0:11:58.079 your socks off. Technologically advanced, I guess, yeah. But UM, 0:11:58.120 --> 0:12:00.040 here's the thing is, those colors weren't locked in and 0:12:00.240 --> 0:12:02.880 like there was never any you know, vote about those 0:12:02.920 --> 0:12:04.880 colors or anything like that. They just sort of went 0:12:04.960 --> 0:12:09.760 that way. Um, As more and more TV networks went color, UM, 0:12:09.880 --> 0:12:12.200 they went with other colors, and it got a little 0:12:12.200 --> 0:12:15.720 bit confusing. Um. Depending on which which network you were watching, 0:12:15.720 --> 0:12:19.200 you might see different colors representing different parties. I think 0:12:19.240 --> 0:12:21.680 always red and blue. But they were kind of flip flopped. 0:12:22.000 --> 0:12:26.400 And it wasn't until two thousand uh and the Washington Post, 0:12:26.679 --> 0:12:30.120 Uh they credit Tim Russert. Um, I think the late 0:12:30.120 --> 0:12:33.480 Tim Russert. He passed away to men. Yeah, they credit 0:12:33.480 --> 0:12:36.400 Tim Russert with kind of locking in what we now 0:12:36.440 --> 0:12:39.720 know as blue states and red states, Blue being for Democrat, 0:12:39.760 --> 0:12:42.720 red for Republican during the two thousand election between Gore 0:12:42.760 --> 0:12:47.840 and Bush. And these colors are important because it's uh 0:12:47.880 --> 0:12:49.959 and one of these writers in here, what's his name, 0:12:50.000 --> 0:12:52.680 Bill Bishop, Uh, he's from Texas. He wrote a book 0:12:52.720 --> 0:12:55.480 called The Big Sort, and he kind of makes a 0:12:55.520 --> 0:12:58.600 really good point that has become a shorthand of not 0:12:58.720 --> 0:13:01.800 just a leaning of the state, but sort of a lifestyle. 0:13:01.960 --> 0:13:05.160 Like you hear things like, you know, it's a really 0:13:05.200 --> 0:13:09.079 blue neighborhood or a red community, and you kind of 0:13:09.120 --> 0:13:12.560 know that's shorthand for a certain thing in this country now. Yeah, 0:13:12.600 --> 0:13:16.000 And and part of the problem with with especially designating 0:13:16.200 --> 0:13:19.320 entire states as like red or blue um is that 0:13:19.400 --> 0:13:22.160 it makes it seem like there's this homogeneous group that 0:13:22.360 --> 0:13:25.079 is that is that the whole state thinks that way, 0:13:25.280 --> 0:13:27.200 And that's not necessarily true. I Mean, there's plenty of 0:13:27.240 --> 0:13:30.320 states out there that that are considered red states, but 0:13:30.400 --> 0:13:33.040 they were won by one and a half percent or 0:13:33.120 --> 0:13:35.679 three percent. You know, it's like a very close call, 0:13:36.200 --> 0:13:39.120 but it went Republican in the presidential election, so it's 0:13:39.160 --> 0:13:41.360 a red state or like you said, you know you 0:13:41.400 --> 0:13:43.839 can you can get it down to like community level, 0:13:43.880 --> 0:13:46.200 that kind of thing. And in doing so, all you're 0:13:46.240 --> 0:13:50.360 doing is sewing this division, that of tribal ism that 0:13:50.440 --> 0:13:53.079 exists in the United States to where it's just so 0:13:53.160 --> 0:13:55.960 easy to have this allegiance to blue or red. They 0:13:56.040 --> 0:13:58.760 don't even make it donkey or elephant any longer. It's 0:13:58.800 --> 0:14:00.880 blue and red. It's one of the most basic things 0:14:00.920 --> 0:14:04.240 you can you can sort by, which is colors um 0:14:04.320 --> 0:14:06.360 and it's a it's a it's a real problem in 0:14:06.400 --> 0:14:13.480 that it's somehow stokes that mentality that in group out 0:14:13.480 --> 0:14:17.360 group mentality that is so problematic in the United States 0:14:17.480 --> 0:14:21.600 right now and is drowning the country as we speak. Basically, 0:14:21.840 --> 0:14:24.200 I hate to say it, but it's absolutely true. It 0:14:24.280 --> 0:14:27.240 really is. And it's especially annoying if you have political 0:14:27.320 --> 0:14:29.360 leanings like I do and live in a state like 0:14:29.400 --> 0:14:34.000 Georgia that is for the past you know, uh twenty 0:14:34.160 --> 0:14:37.680 plus years been solidly read and then you know, you 0:14:37.720 --> 0:14:39.480 have you know, you used to live in California, have 0:14:39.480 --> 0:14:42.480 plenty of friends in California who say things about you know, 0:14:42.600 --> 0:14:46.680 places like Georgia with such a disdain right, and just 0:14:46.800 --> 0:14:49.760 it just bothers me so much because it is, you know, 0:14:49.840 --> 0:14:52.200 these and the thing can be said for people on 0:14:52.240 --> 0:14:54.960 the other side of the political spectrum. It's not exclusive 0:14:55.000 --> 0:14:57.480 to to me being a liberal in Georgia. It's I'm 0:14:57.520 --> 0:15:03.600 sure the same frustrations happened for Republicans in Massachusetts. Absolutely, yeah, 0:15:04.000 --> 0:15:06.240 I'm I'm quite sure in that. I think it was. 0:15:06.920 --> 0:15:09.200 I don't know what article that came from. They point 0:15:09.200 --> 0:15:11.840 out that those people are some of the most die 0:15:11.880 --> 0:15:16.160 hard partisans you'll find, you know, people who are minority 0:15:16.200 --> 0:15:19.040 in their state because they feel like they're really carrying 0:15:19.040 --> 0:15:22.160 the flag for their party or whatever. Um. But yeah, 0:15:22.160 --> 0:15:24.000 it's it's it's a real problem and all it takes 0:15:24.000 --> 0:15:26.960 away all nuance, and it also makes people think like, oh, 0:15:27.120 --> 0:15:29.920 you're you're from a red state. I can't work with you. 0:15:30.440 --> 0:15:32.600 My constituents won't like it if I work with you 0:15:32.720 --> 0:15:36.040 red state person, rather than you're from Wisconsin and I'm 0:15:36.040 --> 0:15:39.120 from California. Let's figure out how to make this highway 0:15:39.120 --> 0:15:41.760 bill make more sense kind of thing, you know. Yeah, 0:15:41.800 --> 0:15:43.920 Emily and I have a lot of conversations about the 0:15:44.000 --> 0:15:48.880 lack of nuance in today's uh world, and it's I 0:15:48.880 --> 0:15:50.640 think that's one of the biggest problems we have going 0:15:50.680 --> 0:15:53.800 on right now. Nuance has been lost in everything, is 0:15:53.840 --> 0:15:56.480 carved very much into red and blue and black and white. 0:15:56.520 --> 0:15:59.600 And it's sad. And you know what is what another 0:15:59.640 --> 0:16:02.280 thing that makes it sad too is it's not just 0:16:02.400 --> 0:16:06.440 like that's just appealing to the lowest common denominator. It 0:16:06.600 --> 0:16:11.400 activates in all people, including brilliant, intelligent people who are 0:16:11.440 --> 0:16:14.600 otherwise normally level headed, that they still have that part 0:16:14.600 --> 0:16:17.400 of their brain stimilar They're like on blue arm red. Um. 0:16:17.680 --> 0:16:21.480 I I affiliate with that, and I hate the opposite. 0:16:21.920 --> 0:16:25.000 It's um. It is that when you lose nuance, a 0:16:25.040 --> 0:16:27.640 lot of stuff goes out the window with it. All Right, well, 0:16:27.680 --> 0:16:30.160 let's take a break. That was our first soapbox of 0:16:30.160 --> 0:16:33.280 the day. I didn't I thought we started out on 0:16:33.320 --> 0:16:36.640 a soapbox was going to be I think pretty even 0:16:36.680 --> 0:16:40.560 handed soapboxes. So right, sure, alright, well we'll come back 0:16:40.600 --> 0:16:43.280 and we'll build another soapbox in the next couple of 0:16:43.280 --> 0:17:16.440 minutes and we'll be back right after this and shocking, okay, um, 0:17:16.560 --> 0:17:20.320 so with we're back on swing states, right, and I 0:17:20.359 --> 0:17:23.280 think we should kind of talk about how how they 0:17:23.359 --> 0:17:28.639 swing or how they have swung or swang uh recently 0:17:29.320 --> 0:17:31.760 because with swing states like you, you kind of get 0:17:31.760 --> 0:17:35.240 this idea that they're they're the same all all the time. 0:17:35.400 --> 0:17:38.240 That's just not the case, especially not lately. Uh. It 0:17:38.280 --> 0:17:43.880 seems like in two thousand and sixteen we're both watershed 0:17:44.000 --> 0:17:49.800 years as far as just completely recoloring the electoral map. Uh. 0:17:49.840 --> 0:17:52.680 And in Bill Clinton did it and in two thousand 0:17:52.680 --> 0:17:55.600 and sixteen Donald Trump did it, and it just surprised 0:17:55.680 --> 0:18:00.639 everybody both times. Yeah, ninety two and if uh, you know, 0:18:00.680 --> 0:18:03.600 if you're our age or younger, you might not have 0:18:03.680 --> 0:18:06.080 been super hip to politics when you were in high school, 0:18:06.160 --> 0:18:09.080 let's say, or early college, and you may not know 0:18:09.640 --> 0:18:12.320 that there was what was called a red wall. They 0:18:12.359 --> 0:18:14.000 didn't call it a red wall back then, but it 0:18:14.080 --> 0:18:17.959 was a red wall where there was UM. Republicans had 0:18:17.960 --> 0:18:22.639 a pretty firm lock on the electoral college. Uh in 0:18:22.720 --> 0:18:27.359 that from nineteen sixty six to nine, twenty one states 0:18:27.680 --> 0:18:32.520 voted Republican every single election. Uh. And that included you 0:18:32.600 --> 0:18:37.840 might be surprised to hear, uh, California, Illinois and New Jersey, 0:18:38.320 --> 0:18:41.720 in Virginia and here's the one that's going to really 0:18:41.720 --> 0:18:47.560 make your heart stop. Vermont. Yeah. Traditionally, Republican voted twenty 0:18:47.600 --> 0:18:53.120 one times in a row, and that is a electoral votes. So, uh, 0:18:53.240 --> 0:18:56.040 they the Democrats had a pretty big disadvantage going into 0:18:56.160 --> 0:18:59.800 nine historically, meaning that they had to win more than 0:18:59.840 --> 0:19:04.600 three quarters of the remaining electoral votes. Um for these 0:19:04.680 --> 0:19:06.920 you know, quote unquote competitive or up in the upper 0:19:06.920 --> 0:19:10.000 grab states. And that's not counting d C, which Democrats 0:19:10.040 --> 0:19:12.200 have always got a lock on. Yeah, for the last 0:19:12.240 --> 0:19:16.160 fourteen elections, DC has always gone Democrat, right. Um, So 0:19:16.760 --> 0:19:20.720 that the common wisdom was that when George H. W. 0:19:20.920 --> 0:19:23.359 Bush went up for re election, not only was he 0:19:23.480 --> 0:19:26.320 the incumbent president, which means that you're supposed to be 0:19:26.359 --> 0:19:31.400 favored typically. Um, he also had this red wall which 0:19:31.440 --> 0:19:33.080 I don't know what they called it, but this lock 0:19:33.160 --> 0:19:36.879 on the electoral college, and uh, it was presumed that 0:19:36.920 --> 0:19:39.439 he was probably gonna win. And then Bill Clinton came along, 0:19:39.920 --> 0:19:44.840 and um, he flipped nine states from that red wall, 0:19:45.600 --> 0:19:47.840 not just the swing states, he flipped nine of those 0:19:47.880 --> 0:19:51.480 red wall states, um, which was a hundred and eighteen 0:19:51.560 --> 0:19:55.199 electoral votes and ended up winning three hundred and seventy 0:19:55.240 --> 0:19:59.200 two hundred and sixty eight for in the electoral College votes. 0:19:59.400 --> 0:20:03.679 Somebody bring me a sledgehammer. That's basically what he did, though, 0:20:03.720 --> 0:20:07.600 I mean, it was it was pretty unprecedented, and like 0:20:07.720 --> 0:20:11.400 you said, just flipped the political thinking in this country 0:20:11.480 --> 0:20:15.840 on its ear and flipped them so hard that California, Illinois, 0:20:15.960 --> 0:20:21.520 New Jersey, and Vermont haven't haven't voted Republican since the election. 0:20:22.080 --> 0:20:26.000 So really reshaped the map. Yeah, he flipped those Republican 0:20:26.119 --> 0:20:31.520 lock states into Democrat lock states. That's right. And now 0:20:31.640 --> 0:20:33.439 they call it the Blue Wall, and they do call 0:20:33.480 --> 0:20:36.200 it the blue wall now because blue is firmly ensconced 0:20:36.240 --> 0:20:40.800 as Democrat. And there are eighteen states supposedly among this 0:20:40.880 --> 0:20:45.280 blue wall, along with d C that have voted Democrat 0:20:45.359 --> 0:20:48.280 and each of the most recent six elections from nine 0:20:48.480 --> 0:20:55.560 to two, well previously from ninety two to right. And 0:20:55.560 --> 0:20:57.840 that's when Trump came in and flipped it on it's 0:20:57.880 --> 0:21:01.560 here once again. Yeah, So he flipped some traditionally UM 0:21:01.720 --> 0:21:08.880 Democrats strongholds like Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, UM. And he he 0:21:08.920 --> 0:21:12.720 did so by first of all, energizing voters that hadn't 0:21:13.119 --> 0:21:16.320 really been seen at the polls very much um like 0:21:16.520 --> 0:21:21.119 UH voters without higher education diploma. A lot of rural workers, 0:21:21.800 --> 0:21:25.360 especially blue collar workers who had been lifelong Democrats, went 0:21:25.400 --> 0:21:29.600 out and voted for Trump UM and ended up taking 0:21:29.640 --> 0:21:33.679 I think he flipped more than just those three. Oh yeah, Um, 0:21:33.720 --> 0:21:38.160 he flipped five Maine and Minnesota. No, no, I'm sorry, 0:21:38.240 --> 0:21:40.080 he flipped those three, and that's how he won the 0:21:40.080 --> 0:21:42.760 electoral college. But he almost won main and he almost 0:21:42.840 --> 0:21:46.719 won Minnesota, and both of them were pretty pretty strong 0:21:46.800 --> 0:21:51.359 Democratic UH states. Minnesota hadn't voted for Republican in like 0:21:51.400 --> 0:21:54.720 fifty years, and he came close to flipping that. And 0:21:54.800 --> 0:21:57.080 so here's the thing we're talking about all these states 0:21:57.080 --> 0:22:01.600 being flipped, because when a state gets lipped in an election, 0:22:02.080 --> 0:22:06.240 especially if it's kind of close or narrowly held rather 0:22:06.280 --> 0:22:09.919 than flipped, that state is probably going to be a 0:22:10.000 --> 0:22:13.800 battle ground or swing state in the next election. Yeah. 0:22:13.840 --> 0:22:15.720 So if you're wondering, I mean, we'll list out the 0:22:15.720 --> 0:22:17.960 swing states and sort of in that drama right here. 0:22:18.000 --> 0:22:19.840 But if you're wondering if you might be in a 0:22:19.880 --> 0:22:24.040 swing state, it has to do with quite a few things. UM. Obviously, 0:22:24.040 --> 0:22:28.840 the voting history there being predictable, UM, if you voted 0:22:28.880 --> 0:22:32.000 for a long long time for a specific party, you're 0:22:32.000 --> 0:22:36.040 probably not a swing state. UM. If your demo demographics 0:22:36.080 --> 0:22:41.760 in in that state are UM traditionally really supports the 0:22:41.800 --> 0:22:43.560 same candidate, then you're probably not going to be a 0:22:43.600 --> 0:22:47.760 swing state. The fact is that most voters in most 0:22:47.840 --> 0:22:51.439 regions of the country, or most regions of the states 0:22:51.480 --> 0:22:55.720 in this country, they vote based on UM. They have 0:22:55.800 --> 0:22:59.320 really different opinions based on the experience of just literally 0:22:59.359 --> 0:23:01.800 the physical play is where they live. Right, So like 0:23:02.160 --> 0:23:07.560 the rural voters typically go UM GOP a Republican, whereas 0:23:08.040 --> 0:23:12.919 people in metropolitan areas, major metropolitan areas frequently go towards 0:23:12.960 --> 0:23:16.200 the Democrats, and they have different experiences based on their 0:23:16.200 --> 0:23:22.080 geography UM and depending on how balanced that is, how 0:23:22.119 --> 0:23:24.960 big the metropolis is, how big the rural area is 0:23:25.000 --> 0:23:28.560 in a state UM compared to whatever metropolis or capital 0:23:28.640 --> 0:23:30.960 is there, that can make that state of swing state. 0:23:31.000 --> 0:23:33.320 Like North Carolina is a really good example of that. 0:23:33.840 --> 0:23:38.880 There's a lot of highly educated tech types, scientific researchers 0:23:38.880 --> 0:23:42.959 who live in the research triangle UM in North Carolina, 0:23:43.240 --> 0:23:45.680 but there's also a ton of rural voters to who 0:23:45.760 --> 0:23:49.600 are active in politics, and those two balance each other out, 0:23:49.600 --> 0:23:52.960 and so North Carolina is very frequently a swing state 0:23:53.080 --> 0:23:56.760 in presidential elections because of that. Yeah, and you know, 0:23:56.840 --> 0:23:59.879 I want to be clear, we're not like disparaging people 0:24:00.000 --> 0:24:02.960 who don't have college diplomas. Um, there are all kinds 0:24:02.960 --> 0:24:05.240 of ways to be smart. Uh. There are a lot 0:24:05.240 --> 0:24:07.760 of people with college diplomas that can't change their oil 0:24:07.800 --> 0:24:12.399 on their car, or you know, or build defense and 0:24:12.440 --> 0:24:15.199