1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:13,760 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg 2 00:00:13,840 --> 00:00:17,920 Speaker 1: Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern 3 00:00:18,200 --> 00:00:21,240 Speaker 1: on Apple car Play or Android Auto with the Bloomberg 4 00:00:21,320 --> 00:00:24,840 Speaker 1: Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, 5 00:00:25,280 --> 00:00:27,080 Speaker 1: or watch us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:27,160 --> 00:00:28,080 Speaker 2: This is well timed. 7 00:00:28,120 --> 00:00:31,720 Speaker 3: This is one of Paul Sweety's favorite, favorite favorite guests. 8 00:00:31,960 --> 00:00:34,519 Speaker 3: He's like the guy in the fixed income market. If 9 00:00:34,520 --> 00:00:38,199 Speaker 3: there were train reels, Sir Blackrock, Paul, this is the 10 00:00:38,240 --> 00:00:40,600 Speaker 3: guy with his ear on the train reel, trying to 11 00:00:40,600 --> 00:00:42,200 Speaker 3: figure out what's coming down the pike. 12 00:00:42,200 --> 00:00:43,440 Speaker 2: Why don't you bring in Russ here. 13 00:00:43,320 --> 00:00:46,080 Speaker 4: With absolutely Russ Brownback Joints is here. He's Deputy CIO 14 00:00:46,159 --> 00:00:49,040 Speaker 4: of Global Fixingcome at little shop called Blackrock. I think 15 00:00:49,080 --> 00:00:51,279 Speaker 4: they run a couple of dollars over there. Russ talk 16 00:00:51,320 --> 00:00:52,760 Speaker 4: to us about the fixed income business. 17 00:00:52,800 --> 00:00:52,919 Speaker 5: Here. 18 00:00:53,000 --> 00:00:55,440 Speaker 4: You guys have had a good twenty twenty five. I 19 00:00:55,440 --> 00:00:57,000 Speaker 4: see a lot of green on the screenline. I look 20 00:00:57,000 --> 00:00:59,840 Speaker 4: across the fixed income total return page on the Bloomberg terminal. 21 00:01:00,800 --> 00:01:02,120 Speaker 2: Credit's been rewarded this year. 22 00:01:02,160 --> 00:01:05,800 Speaker 4: I'm looking at high yield, high single digit returns, leverage loans, 23 00:01:05,800 --> 00:01:08,399 Speaker 4: same type of thing. Mortgage backed securities, all that stuff. 24 00:01:08,440 --> 00:01:11,039 Speaker 4: How are you guys thinking about fixed income market? It's 25 00:01:11,360 --> 00:01:14,399 Speaker 4: the most exciting environment we've ever seen. Our team has 26 00:01:14,440 --> 00:01:16,000 Speaker 4: been at it for a really long time. 27 00:01:16,440 --> 00:01:20,839 Speaker 6: And you know, this is an income harvesting regime fixed income, 28 00:01:20,880 --> 00:01:23,920 Speaker 6: and you know, think about all the different dynamics over 29 00:01:23,920 --> 00:01:26,880 Speaker 6: the course of this year, so much uncertainty. Markets have 30 00:01:26,959 --> 00:01:30,720 Speaker 6: had a series of spasms that create opportunities to tactically 31 00:01:30,720 --> 00:01:33,200 Speaker 6: trade around that. When you put it all together with 32 00:01:33,600 --> 00:01:37,559 Speaker 6: you know, pretty good overall systemic credit quality and build 33 00:01:37,600 --> 00:01:40,319 Speaker 6: a diversified portfolio, get a little bit of lyft from 34 00:01:40,319 --> 00:01:41,920 Speaker 6: interest rates that have come down over the course of 35 00:01:41,920 --> 00:01:45,640 Speaker 6: this year. The aggregate index is on pace for equity 36 00:01:45,760 --> 00:01:48,600 Speaker 6: like returns this year. So it's been the best year 37 00:01:48,640 --> 00:01:50,440 Speaker 6: for fixed income in a decade. 38 00:01:50,520 --> 00:01:51,760 Speaker 2: This is a single. 39 00:01:51,760 --> 00:01:55,960 Speaker 3: Great unspoken of the last eighteen months. Is bondser in 40 00:01:56,000 --> 00:01:56,600 Speaker 3: a bull market? 41 00:01:56,720 --> 00:01:57,840 Speaker 2: Yeah? Nobody knows it. 42 00:01:57,960 --> 00:02:01,480 Speaker 4: Nope, And it's think back to the twenty twenty two 43 00:02:01,520 --> 00:02:03,960 Speaker 4: the tough year that was for everybody, including a fixed 44 00:02:04,000 --> 00:02:07,160 Speaker 4: income market. Here as we look ahead here, what do 45 00:02:07,200 --> 00:02:10,560 Speaker 4: we need for the fixed income market to continue to perform? 46 00:02:10,760 --> 00:02:15,120 Speaker 4: Is it the Fed aggressively cutting rates is it? 47 00:02:15,160 --> 00:02:17,359 Speaker 2: Is it just corporate performance remaining strong? What are some 48 00:02:17,400 --> 00:02:17,960 Speaker 2: of the drivers? 49 00:02:18,080 --> 00:02:20,800 Speaker 6: Yeah, So, you know, I think a very large catalyst 50 00:02:20,960 --> 00:02:23,120 Speaker 6: this coming year is going to be as that policy 51 00:02:23,160 --> 00:02:25,160 Speaker 6: rate comes down. We think the Fed will deliver what's 52 00:02:25,200 --> 00:02:28,919 Speaker 6: priced into markets, which is down close to neutral by 53 00:02:29,040 --> 00:02:31,440 Speaker 6: the third or fourth quarter of next year. And then 54 00:02:31,480 --> 00:02:33,640 Speaker 6: you start to think about those trillions of dollars sitting 55 00:02:33,680 --> 00:02:36,240 Speaker 6: in cash today, and cash has been a very high 56 00:02:36,280 --> 00:02:39,640 Speaker 6: sharp ratio allocation here too, four for the last you know, 57 00:02:39,680 --> 00:02:42,640 Speaker 6: six or eight quarters. I think that money will begin 58 00:02:42,680 --> 00:02:45,880 Speaker 6: to migrate into some longer tenors as some of those 59 00:02:45,880 --> 00:02:49,000 Speaker 6: investors look to lock in this opportunity set. And we 60 00:02:49,040 --> 00:02:52,160 Speaker 6: don't see a lot of overall duration beta move in 61 00:02:52,200 --> 00:02:54,440 Speaker 6: this coming year, so again it's going to be about 62 00:02:54,480 --> 00:02:56,160 Speaker 6: harvesting that income. 63 00:02:56,480 --> 00:02:59,160 Speaker 3: What in God's name what did you say? A duration 64 00:02:59,320 --> 00:02:59,880 Speaker 3: beta move? 65 00:03:00,440 --> 00:03:02,200 Speaker 2: So another way, we're a great band. 66 00:03:02,200 --> 00:03:05,399 Speaker 3: That did evers like in Palmer like, no one duration 67 00:03:05,800 --> 00:03:06,399 Speaker 3: beta move? 68 00:03:06,480 --> 00:03:08,519 Speaker 2: What is that? So we think the yield curve is 69 00:03:08,560 --> 00:03:10,080 Speaker 2: pretty close to an equilibrium today. 70 00:03:10,120 --> 00:03:12,960 Speaker 6: So the front end is priced to where it thinks 71 00:03:13,000 --> 00:03:16,160 Speaker 6: the FED might be delivering the policy rate. That's equilibrium. 72 00:03:16,240 --> 00:03:19,519 Speaker 6: The back end is gravitating towards nominal GDP growth outcomes 73 00:03:19,639 --> 00:03:21,840 Speaker 6: that's about in fair value today. So in other words, 74 00:03:22,000 --> 00:03:24,760 Speaker 6: we don't see a big directional move in rates over 75 00:03:24,800 --> 00:03:28,720 Speaker 6: the next year. So instead it's about finding that optimal 76 00:03:29,480 --> 00:03:32,359 Speaker 6: income expression today and just holding it over the course 77 00:03:32,400 --> 00:03:32,799 Speaker 6: of the year. 78 00:03:33,720 --> 00:03:37,000 Speaker 4: So talk to us about the credit profile out there 79 00:03:37,000 --> 00:03:41,960 Speaker 4: in the marketplace today. We've had some concerning issues in 80 00:03:42,000 --> 00:03:44,360 Speaker 4: a private market that kind of people starting to wonder, 81 00:03:44,400 --> 00:03:47,560 Speaker 4: is that representative us some more broader credit concerns out 82 00:03:47,560 --> 00:03:48,200 Speaker 4: there in the marketplace? 83 00:03:48,200 --> 00:03:49,200 Speaker 2: How do you guys think about that? 84 00:03:49,240 --> 00:03:52,200 Speaker 6: So, overall systemic credit quality is very very good. If 85 00:03:52,200 --> 00:03:54,920 Speaker 6: you look at the financial earnings in the third quarter 86 00:03:54,960 --> 00:03:57,280 Speaker 6: and look at the credit quality, so you saw for 87 00:03:57,320 --> 00:04:01,040 Speaker 6: all three quarters of this year sequential movement and delinquencies, 88 00:04:01,120 --> 00:04:03,720 Speaker 6: charge offs for the major banks. Even you know, if 89 00:04:03,720 --> 00:04:07,440 Speaker 6: you look at the largest auto lenders in the country, 90 00:04:07,480 --> 00:04:11,000 Speaker 6: you've seen similar improvement and credit quality there are sort 91 00:04:11,040 --> 00:04:14,080 Speaker 6: of the economy is very dispersed in terms of outcomes. 92 00:04:14,120 --> 00:04:17,039 Speaker 6: You've got pockets of the economy that are suffering from 93 00:04:17,040 --> 00:04:20,720 Speaker 6: onerously high borrowing costs today, and so you do have 94 00:04:20,839 --> 00:04:25,360 Speaker 6: dispersion underneath that. Overall systemic quality so that's that's an 95 00:04:25,440 --> 00:04:31,120 Speaker 6: awesome environment for picking individual credits, picking winners, avoiding losers. 96 00:04:31,120 --> 00:04:34,280 Speaker 2: So the dispersion is a great way to find alpha. 97 00:04:34,400 --> 00:04:37,400 Speaker 3: Chris brownback with us with black Rock and we continue 98 00:04:37,400 --> 00:04:39,640 Speaker 3: this morning. I'm trying to find yield here. So the 99 00:04:39,640 --> 00:04:43,360 Speaker 3: basic idea is to clip a coupon within strategic income. 100 00:04:43,400 --> 00:04:46,640 Speaker 3: You guys are killing it here with good relative performance. 101 00:04:46,760 --> 00:04:50,560 Speaker 3: If it's a bull market in being strategic, what's the 102 00:04:51,480 --> 00:04:53,960 Speaker 3: mystery strategic out there? 103 00:04:54,120 --> 00:04:54,560 Speaker 2: Forward? 104 00:04:54,640 --> 00:04:56,960 Speaker 3: What are you thinking about now to get to the 105 00:04:57,000 --> 00:04:58,400 Speaker 3: fourth of July next year? 106 00:04:58,600 --> 00:05:02,120 Speaker 6: So you know, I think when you think about the 107 00:05:02,120 --> 00:05:05,960 Speaker 6: world we're entering going forward, animal spirits are really reviving, 108 00:05:06,000 --> 00:05:09,880 Speaker 6: both in terms of the Capex supercycle that's underway as 109 00:05:09,920 --> 00:05:13,200 Speaker 6: well as we're anticipating a great deal of an uptick 110 00:05:13,240 --> 00:05:16,520 Speaker 6: in M and A activity. Lots of that will get 111 00:05:16,560 --> 00:05:19,039 Speaker 6: financed in the public credit market, some of it in 112 00:05:19,040 --> 00:05:23,880 Speaker 6: the private credit markets. That origination is an amazing opportunity. 113 00:05:24,360 --> 00:05:26,279 Speaker 6: So you guys on the show over the past few 114 00:05:26,600 --> 00:05:29,200 Speaker 6: days have talked about the burst of supply we've had 115 00:05:29,240 --> 00:05:32,920 Speaker 6: recently related to Capex. When you take the net supply, 116 00:05:33,120 --> 00:05:35,800 Speaker 6: they'll use the investment grade index as an example, when 117 00:05:35,839 --> 00:05:39,159 Speaker 6: you subtract gross issuance and you take away the amount 118 00:05:39,160 --> 00:05:41,400 Speaker 6: that's maturing the same year, and then the coupon that 119 00:05:41,440 --> 00:05:44,080 Speaker 6: gets thrown off that needs to be reinvested. We've only 120 00:05:44,160 --> 00:05:46,440 Speaker 6: had one percent of the total market cap of the 121 00:05:46,480 --> 00:05:48,600 Speaker 6: Investment Graded Index in net issuance. 122 00:05:48,839 --> 00:05:50,400 Speaker 2: Compare that to the treasury. 123 00:05:50,000 --> 00:05:52,960 Speaker 6: Market, where they're borrowing the equivalent of ten percent every 124 00:05:53,000 --> 00:05:56,800 Speaker 6: year because of deficits. And so we would welcome an 125 00:05:56,800 --> 00:05:59,960 Speaker 6: increase in supply, particularly if it comes at a concess 126 00:06:00,360 --> 00:06:04,480 Speaker 6: in markets that's a great opportunity to harvest someone. You're 127 00:06:04,560 --> 00:06:06,720 Speaker 6: the first phone if I'm on the desk at Goldman 128 00:06:06,760 --> 00:06:09,640 Speaker 6: sachhal More and say, I'm calling you guys first, right, Well, 129 00:06:09,720 --> 00:06:12,520 Speaker 6: we think origination is an alpha source, both in the 130 00:06:12,520 --> 00:06:15,280 Speaker 6: public markets and increasingly in the private markets where we're 131 00:06:15,320 --> 00:06:17,479 Speaker 6: seeing my lateral opportunities, my. 132 00:06:17,480 --> 00:06:20,080 Speaker 2: Whole guilt of these guys, there's like twenty people. They 133 00:06:20,080 --> 00:06:24,200 Speaker 2: make like we got to continue this. Don't be a stranger. 134 00:06:24,279 --> 00:06:28,240 Speaker 3: Rus Brownback with his best CIO Global fixed Income at Blackground. 135 00:06:28,320 --> 00:06:29,039 Speaker 2: Stay with us. 136 00:06:29,279 --> 00:06:32,480 Speaker 3: More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this. 137 00:06:39,720 --> 00:06:43,320 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast Catch US Live 138 00:06:43,400 --> 00:06:46,520 Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on 139 00:06:46,640 --> 00:06:50,279 Speaker 1: Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app, or 140 00:06:50,440 --> 00:06:51,760 Speaker 1: watch US Live on YouTube. 141 00:06:51,760 --> 00:06:55,040 Speaker 3: It's the most intelligent note on institutional tension I have 142 00:06:55,160 --> 00:06:59,400 Speaker 3: seen in ages. Amy Silverman joins this definitive and derivative 143 00:06:59,440 --> 00:07:03,279 Speaker 3: strategy RBC Capital Markets. Okay, you and I aren't going 144 00:07:03,360 --> 00:07:07,200 Speaker 3: to do a quantitative finance Imperial College walkthrough here. We're 145 00:07:07,200 --> 00:07:09,360 Speaker 3: not going to go all aw singte leb. But what 146 00:07:09,400 --> 00:07:13,120 Speaker 3: we are going to do is explain institutions. I can't 147 00:07:13,120 --> 00:07:16,160 Speaker 3: say the phrase, it's not appropriate for radio. They're scared, 148 00:07:16,440 --> 00:07:19,600 Speaker 3: you know what, And the answer is they're hedging, but 149 00:07:19,680 --> 00:07:24,760 Speaker 3: they're hiding it. They're they're afraid, they're hedging their risks. 150 00:07:25,080 --> 00:07:27,760 Speaker 3: But it's shadow hedging discuss. 151 00:07:28,280 --> 00:07:30,360 Speaker 7: So you know, I had a client say to me 152 00:07:30,440 --> 00:07:33,320 Speaker 7: the other day, Tom that they have never seen so 153 00:07:33,400 --> 00:07:37,720 Speaker 7: many fully invested bears, himself included. And you know when 154 00:07:37,760 --> 00:07:40,920 Speaker 7: I talk about shadow hedging, essentially, what I mean is 155 00:07:41,480 --> 00:07:43,640 Speaker 7: I think there is going to be a lot of 156 00:07:43,680 --> 00:07:47,760 Speaker 7: demand for hedging when we make that first drawdown. The 157 00:07:47,840 --> 00:07:49,760 Speaker 7: reason you don't see it in the market right now 158 00:07:49,880 --> 00:07:52,760 Speaker 7: is because it's not there. But you know, one of 159 00:07:52,800 --> 00:07:55,440 Speaker 7: my jobs is to walk around and talk to different 160 00:07:55,520 --> 00:07:58,160 Speaker 7: hedge funds and portfolio managers, and I can tell you 161 00:07:58,200 --> 00:08:01,360 Speaker 7: they want that downside conformation first, and a lot of 162 00:08:01,440 --> 00:08:03,840 Speaker 7: them will deploy cocktail conversation. 163 00:08:04,120 --> 00:08:07,280 Speaker 3: How do you define draw down off SBX? Is it 164 00:08:07,320 --> 00:08:10,280 Speaker 3: a correction? Is it negative five percent? Is it a 165 00:08:10,280 --> 00:08:13,760 Speaker 3: bear market? What's draw down for you looking at a 166 00:08:13,800 --> 00:08:14,840 Speaker 3: convenient average? 167 00:08:15,120 --> 00:08:16,320 Speaker 2: Yeah, it's a great question. 168 00:08:16,480 --> 00:08:19,520 Speaker 7: You know, in derivatives world, we measure everything in standard deviations, 169 00:08:19,520 --> 00:08:21,480 Speaker 7: but I think to keep it simple, you know, something 170 00:08:21,480 --> 00:08:24,760 Speaker 7: that's on the order of seven to ten percent draw down. 171 00:08:24,800 --> 00:08:28,239 Speaker 7: You know, my friend Laurie calls it a garden variety 172 00:08:28,320 --> 00:08:31,520 Speaker 7: draw down in her tears of fear, But I think 173 00:08:31,560 --> 00:08:34,559 Speaker 7: they're looking for that. And then if they see momentum 174 00:08:34,559 --> 00:08:37,360 Speaker 7: factor confirmation there on the downside, which we haven't all year, 175 00:08:37,440 --> 00:08:40,200 Speaker 7: we haven't since COVID, then I think you do have 176 00:08:40,240 --> 00:08:43,560 Speaker 7: a cohort who is ready to step in and hedge more. 177 00:08:43,600 --> 00:08:47,040 Speaker 7: But remember, they've been kind of whiplashed by this retail, 178 00:08:47,200 --> 00:08:50,720 Speaker 7: by the phenomenon that's been so strong, and that's why 179 00:08:50,760 --> 00:08:53,079 Speaker 7: I think they've kept it in the shadows this time. 180 00:08:53,160 --> 00:08:54,720 Speaker 7: And not in the light of day. 181 00:08:55,160 --> 00:08:57,800 Speaker 4: I love your notes, They're so helpful here. The one 182 00:08:57,800 --> 00:08:59,800 Speaker 4: that jumps out of me is two huge risks from 183 00:09:00,280 --> 00:09:03,199 Speaker 4: have been one right tail I e. That you risk 184 00:09:03,559 --> 00:09:05,840 Speaker 4: that you aren't participating in upcrashes. 185 00:09:06,000 --> 00:09:08,640 Speaker 2: Haven't heard that term before. That's called crash, Yeah, crashes, 186 00:09:08,679 --> 00:09:09,280 Speaker 2: I'm going to use that. 187 00:09:09,360 --> 00:09:13,240 Speaker 4: And two heavy concentration. We've heard that concentration risk in 188 00:09:13,240 --> 00:09:15,400 Speaker 4: the marketplace. Are they trying to hedge some of that 189 00:09:15,440 --> 00:09:17,640 Speaker 4: concentration risk out at all? 190 00:09:19,040 --> 00:09:19,400 Speaker 2: They're not. 191 00:09:19,760 --> 00:09:22,199 Speaker 7: I mean the way they're hedging it is there. They 192 00:09:22,320 --> 00:09:25,480 Speaker 7: end up quite concentrated, meaning they probably hold more in 193 00:09:25,600 --> 00:09:28,040 Speaker 7: video or more mag seven than they would like. You know, 194 00:09:28,080 --> 00:09:30,880 Speaker 7: that makes them the fully invested bear. But they're very 195 00:09:30,920 --> 00:09:34,160 Speaker 7: cognizant of the risks, you know, both of this kind 196 00:09:34,200 --> 00:09:37,439 Speaker 7: of circularity in AI. It makes them very anxious. They 197 00:09:37,480 --> 00:09:40,360 Speaker 7: just don't feel like they have an alternative, especially when 198 00:09:40,400 --> 00:09:42,559 Speaker 7: you have the other side sort of stepping in all 199 00:09:42,559 --> 00:09:45,800 Speaker 7: this time since April second and boeing the market. That's 200 00:09:45,840 --> 00:09:49,600 Speaker 7: why I think this downside confirmation factor becomes really critical. 201 00:09:49,960 --> 00:09:51,040 Speaker 4: One of the things that we're going to have to 202 00:09:51,080 --> 00:09:53,520 Speaker 4: deal with that you don't ordinarily deal with is we're 203 00:09:53,520 --> 00:09:56,040 Speaker 4: going to get a deluge of economic data if and 204 00:09:56,040 --> 00:09:59,680 Speaker 4: when the government opens soon, do your clients come to 205 00:09:59,679 --> 00:10:02,760 Speaker 4: you and say, I'm not I think that's some risk, 206 00:10:02,840 --> 00:10:04,840 Speaker 4: I think, or it might be opportunity. I don't know 207 00:10:05,120 --> 00:10:06,880 Speaker 4: how are they positioning for that, if at all. 208 00:10:07,240 --> 00:10:09,640 Speaker 7: So I think this is actually really interesting because one 209 00:10:09,760 --> 00:10:14,120 Speaker 7: kind of breakdown and relationship in options is typically volatilely 210 00:10:14,120 --> 00:10:16,400 Speaker 7: goes up when the market goes down. Right, there's this 211 00:10:16,559 --> 00:10:20,920 Speaker 7: spot down ball up phenomenon that sound essentially broken down. 212 00:10:21,000 --> 00:10:23,640 Speaker 7: Now what we're actually seeing is this idea of the upcrash, 213 00:10:23,720 --> 00:10:26,240 Speaker 7: so volatily actually can go up when the market goes up. 214 00:10:26,600 --> 00:10:28,680 Speaker 7: And if we get data that says, you know, there's 215 00:10:28,679 --> 00:10:30,920 Speaker 7: definitely going to be twenty five BIPs into summer, you 216 00:10:30,920 --> 00:10:31,960 Speaker 7: could get an up crash. 217 00:10:32,120 --> 00:10:34,280 Speaker 2: We're going nerd on youa. Amy was Silverman with this. 218 00:10:34,480 --> 00:10:37,600 Speaker 3: RBC Capital Market's chief nerd, Michael McGlone on deck here 219 00:10:38,120 --> 00:10:41,440 Speaker 3: in Miami. Okay, Amy, just for you. Mike from Belmont 220 00:10:41,480 --> 00:10:43,840 Speaker 3: called and said, Tom, do something in the terminal. Thank 221 00:10:43,880 --> 00:10:47,640 Speaker 3: you Mike for that pro tip. So I take SPX 222 00:10:48,160 --> 00:10:50,800 Speaker 3: and I go down two standard deviations the negative two 223 00:10:50,840 --> 00:10:53,960 Speaker 3: standard deviations off trend twenty week look back. I'm working 224 00:10:54,000 --> 00:10:57,560 Speaker 3: in weekly units, not daily units, because that's what pros do. 225 00:10:58,000 --> 00:10:58,880 Speaker 2: If I go down. 226 00:10:58,800 --> 00:11:03,360 Speaker 3: Ten point five oher, I finally get down to standard deviations, 227 00:11:03,559 --> 00:11:05,640 Speaker 3: that's the drawdown you're talking about. 228 00:11:05,880 --> 00:11:09,079 Speaker 7: Yeah, and again, you know most people characterize that as 229 00:11:09,120 --> 00:11:12,040 Speaker 7: a garden variety drawdown. One thing we like to do 230 00:11:12,200 --> 00:11:14,880 Speaker 7: is there's two metrics you can look upon Bloomberg sdex 231 00:11:14,960 --> 00:11:18,360 Speaker 7: and t DX. One measures a one standard deviation drawdown 232 00:11:18,440 --> 00:11:22,680 Speaker 7: and TDX actually measures a three standard divation drawdown. They're 233 00:11:22,720 --> 00:11:26,600 Speaker 7: both incredibly inexpensive right now, which tells you that hedging 234 00:11:26,640 --> 00:11:28,520 Speaker 7: isn't real yet. It's just shadow hedging. 235 00:11:30,960 --> 00:11:33,480 Speaker 2: It's a guest telling you can you teach youse daily. 236 00:11:34,960 --> 00:11:39,360 Speaker 4: On the blob comedy exactly? Sorry, So where's the opportunity? 237 00:11:39,400 --> 00:11:41,360 Speaker 4: Where's the risk at there in the marketplace for you? 238 00:11:41,440 --> 00:11:43,960 Speaker 4: Right now? When you talk to your clients, what are 239 00:11:43,960 --> 00:11:44,319 Speaker 4: you hearing? 240 00:11:44,720 --> 00:11:44,960 Speaker 2: Yeah? 241 00:11:45,040 --> 00:11:47,000 Speaker 7: You know, to me, one of the biggest risks is 242 00:11:47,080 --> 00:11:51,160 Speaker 7: just this component of correlation, which is something that you 243 00:11:51,200 --> 00:11:54,319 Speaker 7: know tends tends to increase when things go down sharply. 244 00:11:54,480 --> 00:11:57,080 Speaker 7: I think I think this is behind all the angst 245 00:11:57,120 --> 00:11:59,080 Speaker 7: you hear from institutional investors because a lot of them 246 00:11:59,120 --> 00:12:01,560 Speaker 7: live through GFC, A lot of them live through the 247 00:12:01,559 --> 00:12:04,640 Speaker 7: times when correlation goes up like a knife. And that's 248 00:12:04,679 --> 00:12:07,280 Speaker 7: why I think, you know these hedges was don't look 249 00:12:07,320 --> 00:12:10,120 Speaker 7: that expensive right now? That cover your tails is something 250 00:12:10,160 --> 00:12:12,400 Speaker 7: that's compelling to people, even though it's shadow hedging. 251 00:12:12,600 --> 00:12:13,439 Speaker 2: What's the fear? 252 00:12:13,559 --> 00:12:16,640 Speaker 3: I mean, your note is brilliant on how institutions are 253 00:12:16,720 --> 00:12:19,880 Speaker 3: not with retail in this bullmarket futures new high for 254 00:12:19,920 --> 00:12:22,120 Speaker 3: the day of twenty seven at the level here of 255 00:12:22,120 --> 00:12:25,240 Speaker 3: getting up near sixty nine one hundred Amy wo Silverman. 256 00:12:25,320 --> 00:12:28,240 Speaker 3: In nineteen eighty seven, there was an ugly day where 257 00:12:28,280 --> 00:12:32,560 Speaker 3: I learned how to spell portfolio insurance. Where's the portfolio 258 00:12:32,679 --> 00:12:35,160 Speaker 3: insurance of two twenty six? 259 00:12:36,160 --> 00:12:38,920 Speaker 7: You know, I think it's something simple like either NASTAC 260 00:12:39,040 --> 00:12:41,560 Speaker 7: or SMP, just just simple puts. And the reason I 261 00:12:41,640 --> 00:12:44,040 Speaker 7: say that is because a lot of what's been going 262 00:12:44,160 --> 00:12:47,839 Speaker 7: well is very concentrated, and it's also very self referential 263 00:12:47,840 --> 00:12:50,400 Speaker 7: because it is just the stock market wealth. And so 264 00:12:50,520 --> 00:12:52,400 Speaker 7: if you do lose the leg of the school of 265 00:12:52,480 --> 00:12:55,679 Speaker 7: retail because they look at their portfolios and it's going 266 00:12:55,720 --> 00:12:57,920 Speaker 7: down where they're trying to buy the dip, then I 267 00:12:57,960 --> 00:13:00,400 Speaker 7: think you could get into this kind of circul that 268 00:13:00,440 --> 00:13:02,480 Speaker 7: you're seeing in AI where they're like, wait a minute, 269 00:13:02,760 --> 00:13:04,679 Speaker 7: you know this isn't going to work for us, and 270 00:13:04,679 --> 00:13:06,240 Speaker 7: that's your correlation spike you need. 271 00:13:06,400 --> 00:13:08,360 Speaker 4: I'll bet if we have something more than a garden 272 00:13:08,440 --> 00:13:12,240 Speaker 4: variety draw down decline in the marketplace, do you think 273 00:13:12,240 --> 00:13:15,920 Speaker 4: the retail investors will be there at that point? 274 00:13:16,200 --> 00:13:19,000 Speaker 7: So I don't. I don't, And I'll tell you one 275 00:13:19,040 --> 00:13:23,000 Speaker 7: reason it's a lot of this cohort is generational, right, 276 00:13:23,240 --> 00:13:25,400 Speaker 7: and so when you think about the kind of market 277 00:13:25,400 --> 00:13:28,400 Speaker 7: they've seen, they've seen a twenty ten to now market 278 00:13:28,440 --> 00:13:30,679 Speaker 7: where you do buy the dip. It makes sense if 279 00:13:30,679 --> 00:13:34,600 Speaker 7: you get an extended run where you know volatility is 280 00:13:34,720 --> 00:13:38,160 Speaker 7: very high, very high volatile regime and continuous draw downs, 281 00:13:38,160 --> 00:13:41,160 Speaker 7: and you get that confirmation of that downside momentum factor. 282 00:13:41,200 --> 00:13:43,360 Speaker 7: I think that's what institutional investors are worried about. 283 00:13:43,440 --> 00:13:44,360 Speaker 2: Okay, we got to go here. 284 00:13:44,400 --> 00:13:47,040 Speaker 3: Mike mcloan's people just emailed and said he's got to 285 00:13:47,080 --> 00:13:52,319 Speaker 3: come on November twelfth. Okay, December twelfth, twenty twenty five. 286 00:13:53,160 --> 00:13:57,120 Speaker 3: There's no tour scheduled, So it's the Taylor Swift, the 287 00:13:57,200 --> 00:14:01,880 Speaker 3: Eras Tour, the final show moview on Disney Plus. How 288 00:14:01,920 --> 00:14:04,360 Speaker 3: big is the party at the Silverman House? You? 289 00:14:04,520 --> 00:14:06,720 Speaker 7: I actually don't even know about this one. Your daughter, 290 00:14:07,960 --> 00:14:10,160 Speaker 7: She's probably gonna shake her head that I didn't know this. 291 00:14:10,480 --> 00:14:12,480 Speaker 2: We'll have to do a view summertime. Well, it's a viewing. 292 00:14:12,640 --> 00:14:16,200 Speaker 2: I mean it's destination to you. Mike Kelln. Well that 293 00:14:16,320 --> 00:14:18,800 Speaker 2: too well for Disney Plus. Oh, I think that'd be good. 294 00:14:18,800 --> 00:14:22,600 Speaker 5: Amy was Silverman brilliant on shadow Heading Just I can't 295 00:14:22,600 --> 00:14:25,840 Speaker 5: say enough to stay with us. More from Bloomberg Surveillance 296 00:14:25,920 --> 00:14:34,320 Speaker 5: coming up after this. 297 00:14:34,320 --> 00:14:38,240 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday 298 00:14:38,280 --> 00:14:41,280 Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Apple Corplay and Android 299 00:14:41,320 --> 00:14:44,320 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen 300 00:14:44,440 --> 00:14:47,680 Speaker 1: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, 301 00:14:48,240 --> 00:14:51,680 Speaker 1: Just Say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty Race. 302 00:14:51,480 --> 00:14:55,320 Speaker 3: Sharper with us Alizard asset manager. Lazard's just having a 303 00:14:55,400 --> 00:14:59,240 Speaker 3: great year. I mean, Peter, the place is pumped. I mean, 304 00:14:59,240 --> 00:15:01,200 Speaker 3: I see the Lazar everywhere. 305 00:15:01,320 --> 00:15:03,480 Speaker 2: We're playing to win. Well, you're you're. 306 00:15:03,360 --> 00:15:06,160 Speaker 3: Playing to win, But come on, or ISIX doing this 307 00:15:06,240 --> 00:15:07,480 Speaker 3: with a certain panache? 308 00:15:07,600 --> 00:15:10,000 Speaker 2: Has he been home like has he been in New 309 00:15:10,080 --> 00:15:12,360 Speaker 2: York one day in the last six months. It's a 310 00:15:12,360 --> 00:15:12,960 Speaker 2: great question. 311 00:15:13,000 --> 00:15:16,080 Speaker 8: I think that the context is intellectual curiosity, working with 312 00:15:16,120 --> 00:15:19,960 Speaker 8: our clients and partnering to drive industry. 313 00:15:19,600 --> 00:15:21,960 Speaker 3: For Global Wall Street. Now in the fervor of this 314 00:15:21,960 --> 00:15:25,040 Speaker 3: this boom that we're in. What's the Lazar distinction? As 315 00:15:25,080 --> 00:15:27,360 Speaker 3: you grind it out every day, there will so distinction. 316 00:15:27,600 --> 00:15:29,400 Speaker 2: It's fundamental, it's long term. 317 00:15:29,480 --> 00:15:33,480 Speaker 8: We represent and we're very fortunate to represent long term 318 00:15:33,520 --> 00:15:39,800 Speaker 8: assets pensioners. We're fundamental focusing on profitability and identifying great opportunities. 319 00:15:39,280 --> 00:15:44,120 Speaker 3: Very perfect security into the reality that Beijing and China 320 00:15:44,560 --> 00:15:48,160 Speaker 3: have an X access completely different than we do. They 321 00:15:48,400 --> 00:15:53,520 Speaker 3: China develops long term. You're hugely plus plus on China equities. 322 00:15:53,800 --> 00:15:56,440 Speaker 2: Link that into their GEO Tom. I think the context 323 00:15:56,480 --> 00:15:58,600 Speaker 2: of emerging markets is evolution. 324 00:15:59,240 --> 00:16:03,200 Speaker 8: We are moving beyond foundational basic emerging markets that's driving convergence. 325 00:16:03,480 --> 00:16:04,840 Speaker 2: China is at the forefront of that. 326 00:16:05,280 --> 00:16:08,640 Speaker 8: Historically it was about manufacturing exporting to the US consumer. 327 00:16:08,960 --> 00:16:11,320 Speaker 8: What you found is that they have really focused and 328 00:16:11,360 --> 00:16:14,240 Speaker 8: honed in on the future of technologies. We've seen that 329 00:16:14,240 --> 00:16:17,480 Speaker 8: in terms of ev penetration today in China, for example, 330 00:16:17,520 --> 00:16:20,680 Speaker 8: over fifty percent of new cars are ev You're seeing 331 00:16:20,680 --> 00:16:23,680 Speaker 8: that in terms of battery storage, see some of your 332 00:16:24,440 --> 00:16:27,600 Speaker 8: biotech areas. So you're seeing a focus on the next 333 00:16:27,640 --> 00:16:30,880 Speaker 8: generation of technologies. And the context is that emerging markets 334 00:16:30,920 --> 00:16:33,520 Speaker 8: is not just a convergence story. Parts of emerging markets 335 00:16:33,680 --> 00:16:36,520 Speaker 8: are driving the fourth industrialization. We're seeing that in Asia, 336 00:16:36,720 --> 00:16:39,960 Speaker 8: North Asia as well, Taiwan Korea, particularly around some of 337 00:16:39,960 --> 00:16:41,200 Speaker 8: the AI themes. 338 00:16:41,360 --> 00:16:45,440 Speaker 4: So for a while there, you know, my Asia, my 339 00:16:45,560 --> 00:16:46,880 Speaker 4: China proxy is Alibaba. 340 00:16:46,960 --> 00:16:47,800 Speaker 2: That's it. That's all I know. 341 00:16:48,320 --> 00:16:50,280 Speaker 4: And then it was doing so well for all the reasons. 342 00:16:50,320 --> 00:16:52,080 Speaker 4: We all understand that the government came in and put 343 00:16:52,080 --> 00:16:53,840 Speaker 4: the kaibash on a lot of the tech there, and 344 00:16:53,880 --> 00:16:55,480 Speaker 4: that was three or four years out in the desert. 345 00:16:55,480 --> 00:16:59,280 Speaker 4: Nobody could care about China. It's back, right, And why 346 00:16:59,360 --> 00:17:02,560 Speaker 4: is it back? Gets back because there's pragmatism in Beijing. 347 00:17:02,920 --> 00:17:05,120 Speaker 8: We need to bring back the private sector and engage 348 00:17:05,119 --> 00:17:08,920 Speaker 8: and develop that UH social contract with with with the youth. 349 00:17:09,320 --> 00:17:10,680 Speaker 8: I think it's also the fact that there's been a 350 00:17:10,680 --> 00:17:14,119 Speaker 8: lot of innovation. Deep Seek earlier this year highlighted UH 351 00:17:14,200 --> 00:17:17,840 Speaker 8: that China's is in this race. They're they're they're evolving 352 00:17:18,080 --> 00:17:21,280 Speaker 8: and the context of these are national champions that are 353 00:17:21,280 --> 00:17:23,160 Speaker 8: helping drive and evolve the economy. 354 00:17:23,280 --> 00:17:24,359 Speaker 2: This is too important. 355 00:17:24,520 --> 00:17:31,040 Speaker 3: Over the weekend, LVMH announces four new Tiffany's and Lewis 356 00:17:31,119 --> 00:17:34,919 Speaker 3: Viuten's and all that in Beijing. Great Lazard's telling me 357 00:17:35,040 --> 00:17:38,880 Speaker 3: that we have a g shift back towards Deng, back 358 00:17:38,920 --> 00:17:40,720 Speaker 3: towards some more capitalistic China. 359 00:17:40,880 --> 00:17:43,000 Speaker 2: Do you actually observe that, Atlizard? 360 00:17:43,160 --> 00:17:45,720 Speaker 8: So I think it's really important to understand your alignment 361 00:17:45,760 --> 00:17:48,960 Speaker 8: with Beijing and understand your alignment with the major companies. 362 00:17:48,960 --> 00:17:49,879 Speaker 2: In emerging markets. 363 00:17:49,880 --> 00:17:52,960 Speaker 8: You do tend to find that state owned enterprises are 364 00:17:53,000 --> 00:17:54,200 Speaker 8: majority control. 365 00:17:53,920 --> 00:17:54,960 Speaker 2: By by by the government. 366 00:17:55,440 --> 00:17:58,000 Speaker 8: I think the context here is that it's it's it's 367 00:17:58,040 --> 00:18:01,439 Speaker 8: not a monolithic story. You have to understand the nuance, 368 00:18:01,440 --> 00:18:04,320 Speaker 8: and the nuance is quite important. We spend a lot 369 00:18:04,320 --> 00:18:08,200 Speaker 8: of time understanding that dynamic with the major shareholders, what's 370 00:18:08,240 --> 00:18:10,320 Speaker 8: the vision of these businesses. But I do think the 371 00:18:10,359 --> 00:18:13,960 Speaker 8: context of the last couple of weeks is showing mister 372 00:18:14,000 --> 00:18:17,479 Speaker 8: Trump and she are speaking to each other. These are 373 00:18:17,520 --> 00:18:20,800 Speaker 8: two very important economies, and the context of emerging markets 374 00:18:20,840 --> 00:18:24,680 Speaker 8: more broadly is we just finished a lost decade for 375 00:18:25,280 --> 00:18:28,000 Speaker 8: the asset class and now, with emerging markets up nearly 376 00:18:28,040 --> 00:18:32,480 Speaker 8: thirty percent year to date, investor interests is starting to improve. 377 00:18:32,800 --> 00:18:36,480 Speaker 8: And it's not just about short termism in these assets. 378 00:18:36,480 --> 00:18:38,840 Speaker 8: We're seeing parts of this asset class are driving innovation. 379 00:18:39,560 --> 00:18:42,840 Speaker 8: There's the development of foundational opportunities. Think about India today, 380 00:18:42,840 --> 00:18:46,359 Speaker 8: for example, the middle class in India is the story. 381 00:18:46,119 --> 00:18:46,800 Speaker 2: Is just starting. 382 00:18:46,920 --> 00:18:49,920 Speaker 8: Per Cappit incomes there just started around two thousand, five 383 00:18:50,000 --> 00:18:54,040 Speaker 8: hundred dollars. You're seeing a shift occurring where people are traveling, 384 00:18:54,200 --> 00:18:55,840 Speaker 8: consumers are buying homes for the first time. 385 00:18:56,080 --> 00:18:57,320 Speaker 2: Think about Latin America. 386 00:18:57,600 --> 00:19:00,680 Speaker 8: Rates are so high today you haven't even seen credit cycle. 387 00:19:00,680 --> 00:19:03,399 Speaker 8: We're starting to see the beginnings of a credit cycle. 388 00:19:03,600 --> 00:19:04,560 Speaker 2: And through that. 389 00:19:04,520 --> 00:19:07,639 Speaker 8: Whole backdrop, I think that the level of maturity across 390 00:19:07,720 --> 00:19:10,160 Speaker 8: the emerging markets in terms of central bank monetary policy 391 00:19:10,520 --> 00:19:13,280 Speaker 8: has been quite orthodox. They learned their lessons from the 392 00:19:13,560 --> 00:19:15,439 Speaker 8: Taper tantrum back in twenty thirteen. 393 00:19:16,240 --> 00:19:18,040 Speaker 2: I know you have a big exposure. 394 00:19:17,560 --> 00:19:19,439 Speaker 4: To a little birding whishper in my ear just a 395 00:19:19,480 --> 00:19:22,080 Speaker 4: moment ago in China and in Asia talk to us 396 00:19:22,080 --> 00:19:22,560 Speaker 4: about India. 397 00:19:22,560 --> 00:19:23,600 Speaker 2: Though you just mentioned India. 398 00:19:23,680 --> 00:19:25,520 Speaker 4: I mean a lot of folks were telling me when 399 00:19:25,560 --> 00:19:30,600 Speaker 4: India when China was maybe maybe not investible, but people 400 00:19:30,600 --> 00:19:32,880 Speaker 4: were just down on China. People are saying, don't worry 401 00:19:32,920 --> 00:19:36,320 Speaker 4: about China, look to India. That is the next story here. 402 00:19:36,359 --> 00:19:37,360 Speaker 4: How do you guys think about that? 403 00:19:37,440 --> 00:19:40,240 Speaker 2: So long term, we believe in the India story. 404 00:19:40,280 --> 00:19:42,920 Speaker 8: I mean, as I mentioned, the economy has now hit 405 00:19:42,960 --> 00:19:45,399 Speaker 8: to around a little over three trillion two and a 406 00:19:45,440 --> 00:19:48,880 Speaker 8: half thousand per capita. Consumers are consuming for the first time, 407 00:19:48,880 --> 00:19:50,320 Speaker 8: people are buying homes for the first time. 408 00:19:50,320 --> 00:19:51,520 Speaker 2: You're just seeing that development. 409 00:19:51,680 --> 00:19:54,600 Speaker 8: I think from a national strategic context, India wants to 410 00:19:54,600 --> 00:19:58,439 Speaker 8: be in the global supply chain manufacturing side. I think 411 00:19:58,520 --> 00:20:01,960 Speaker 8: MODI is very much forocus on helping sort of move 412 00:20:02,000 --> 00:20:07,040 Speaker 8: the society from the graians to more organization. Valuations are 413 00:20:07,119 --> 00:20:10,200 Speaker 8: challenging in certain areas, but I do think that looking 414 00:20:10,240 --> 00:20:13,280 Speaker 8: out over the next ten years, we think India is 415 00:20:13,280 --> 00:20:16,320 Speaker 8: one of the is the largest mastest growing economy and 416 00:20:16,520 --> 00:20:17,400 Speaker 8: GDP should double. 417 00:20:17,560 --> 00:20:20,880 Speaker 3: Is anybody at Wizard not from the London School of Economics? 418 00:20:21,800 --> 00:20:23,600 Speaker 2: This is like an Orzegg requirement. 419 00:20:23,680 --> 00:20:26,920 Speaker 8: You have to have an l I think economic history 420 00:20:26,920 --> 00:20:29,160 Speaker 8: I studied at the London School of Economics really important 421 00:20:29,160 --> 00:20:33,320 Speaker 8: helps you develop context particularly when thinking about geopolitical events 422 00:20:33,320 --> 00:20:34,639 Speaker 8: and investments. 423 00:20:34,240 --> 00:20:38,280 Speaker 3: Throughout the society, or people that haven't studied any economic history, 424 00:20:38,400 --> 00:20:41,280 Speaker 3: or just as simple as I can on India, then 425 00:20:41,359 --> 00:20:45,480 Speaker 3: as well, please discuss tariffs. The summary of Lazard's thought 426 00:20:45,560 --> 00:20:48,159 Speaker 3: Paul had this yesterday, how can we be over the 427 00:20:48,280 --> 00:20:48,840 Speaker 3: terriff banks? 428 00:20:48,960 --> 00:20:49,399 Speaker 2: Yet we're not? 429 00:20:49,560 --> 00:20:54,480 Speaker 8: Are we We're getting close the expectations that we would 430 00:20:54,520 --> 00:20:57,679 Speaker 8: have seen a trade deal early in July, and that 431 00:20:57,920 --> 00:20:58,240 Speaker 8: did not. 432 00:21:00,440 --> 00:21:00,760 Speaker 2: Occur. 433 00:21:01,080 --> 00:21:03,120 Speaker 8: I think we're now at a point where there's more 434 00:21:03,160 --> 00:21:07,359 Speaker 8: optimism on that side. We're hearing favorable dynamics that there's 435 00:21:07,359 --> 00:21:10,240 Speaker 8: been more dialogue between the two. I think the context 436 00:21:10,240 --> 00:21:14,560 Speaker 8: of where India can serve as a true partner with 437 00:21:14,600 --> 00:21:20,840 Speaker 8: the United States from manufacturing from Indian also improve and 438 00:21:20,880 --> 00:21:23,639 Speaker 8: modernize a lot of its industrial sector. And then at 439 00:21:23,640 --> 00:21:27,520 Speaker 8: the same time, the large non resident Indian community here 440 00:21:27,520 --> 00:21:29,960 Speaker 8: in the US and in the private sector are quite engaged. 441 00:21:30,000 --> 00:21:31,399 Speaker 2: So I'm optimistic. 442 00:21:31,640 --> 00:21:34,560 Speaker 8: I think that we're going to see some positive developments 443 00:21:34,640 --> 00:21:35,640 Speaker 8: over the coming months. 444 00:21:35,880 --> 00:21:39,760 Speaker 4: As an emerging market manager, how much time do you 445 00:21:39,800 --> 00:21:44,080 Speaker 4: spend out of the US visiting in these countries A lot? 446 00:21:45,600 --> 00:21:47,840 Speaker 2: It's a part of it's a key part of the job. 447 00:21:48,040 --> 00:21:50,920 Speaker 8: I will say, what's really important as an investor in 448 00:21:50,960 --> 00:21:53,439 Speaker 8: emerging markets you have to be you have to need 449 00:21:53,480 --> 00:21:56,640 Speaker 8: to think holistically. It's not about just traveling and meeting 450 00:21:56,680 --> 00:22:01,080 Speaker 8: companies and reporting yesterday's news you've got it and push 451 00:22:01,359 --> 00:22:03,879 Speaker 8: some of the scenarios. I think we also have the 452 00:22:04,000 --> 00:22:07,399 Speaker 8: ability as a global emerging market investor to bring perspective. 453 00:22:07,480 --> 00:22:10,080 Speaker 8: So how do the development that we're seeing in China, 454 00:22:10,160 --> 00:22:12,119 Speaker 8: how does that impact the path of a country like 455 00:22:12,119 --> 00:22:14,280 Speaker 8: Brazil is going to experience, or what Mexico may be 456 00:22:14,320 --> 00:22:16,320 Speaker 8: doing right now around tariff negotiation. 457 00:22:16,440 --> 00:22:17,800 Speaker 2: So that is really important. 458 00:22:17,840 --> 00:22:19,600 Speaker 8: I think we viewed as an edge and that as 459 00:22:19,640 --> 00:22:22,560 Speaker 8: a result, because we represent long term money, we can 460 00:22:22,600 --> 00:22:25,200 Speaker 8: think fundamentally and that to us is the marketing efficiency. 461 00:22:25,520 --> 00:22:30,640 Speaker 3: Thank you so much for this, Lazarresset Management, Stay with us. 462 00:22:30,840 --> 00:22:41,160 Speaker 3: More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this. 463 00:22:41,160 --> 00:22:45,080 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday 464 00:22:45,080 --> 00:22:48,399 Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto 465 00:22:48,520 --> 00:22:51,480 Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live 466 00:22:51,560 --> 00:22:55,159 Speaker 1: on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just 467 00:22:55,200 --> 00:22:59,080 Speaker 1: say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 468 00:23:02,600 --> 00:23:05,560 Speaker 9: Hello and welcome to the first episode of Odd Lots. 469 00:23:05,680 --> 00:23:08,040 Speaker 9: I'm Joe Wisenthal, co host of What You Miss and 470 00:23:08,520 --> 00:23:10,080 Speaker 9: editor at Bloomberg Markets Now. 471 00:23:10,119 --> 00:23:13,120 Speaker 10: I'm Tracy Alloway, executive editor of Bloomberg Markets. 472 00:23:13,359 --> 00:23:16,399 Speaker 9: Here at odd Lots, we want to have a discussion 473 00:23:16,520 --> 00:23:22,720 Speaker 9: every week about economics, finance, markets, market structure, which Tracy loves, 474 00:23:23,280 --> 00:23:27,320 Speaker 9: maybe some politics and culture thrown in stuff that doesn't 475 00:23:27,359 --> 00:23:30,959 Speaker 9: necessarily fit into the normal day to day conversation. And 476 00:23:30,960 --> 00:23:33,920 Speaker 9: we couldn't think of any guest better to have than 477 00:23:34,040 --> 00:23:34,640 Speaker 9: Tom Keen. 478 00:23:35,000 --> 00:23:38,879 Speaker 2: Am I a guinea pig? You're the guinea pig? Okay, 479 00:23:38,960 --> 00:23:39,360 Speaker 2: thank you? 480 00:23:40,600 --> 00:23:43,920 Speaker 3: It was really something. Good morning all of you across 481 00:23:43,960 --> 00:23:46,120 Speaker 3: the nation and around the road. Good morning on YouTube. 482 00:23:46,600 --> 00:23:51,080 Speaker 3: Please subscribe to Bloomberg Podcasts Odd Lots with a tenth year. 483 00:23:52,040 --> 00:23:54,280 Speaker 3: I was definitely a guinea pig. And you guys are 484 00:23:54,320 --> 00:23:56,680 Speaker 3: so desperate that you didn't have anybody else to talk 485 00:23:56,720 --> 00:24:01,760 Speaker 3: to Tracy Aloway, Joe Wisenhalt and celebrate of what they 486 00:24:01,880 --> 00:24:05,520 Speaker 3: have wrought. How did you two meet? I need to 487 00:24:05,560 --> 00:24:08,480 Speaker 3: start with that you were at the Financial Times. I 488 00:24:08,520 --> 00:24:10,840 Speaker 3: would read I said this the other day in a taping. 489 00:24:11,160 --> 00:24:12,480 Speaker 3: You read Tracy. 490 00:24:12,160 --> 00:24:15,240 Speaker 2: Alloway and you're like, damn it, she's smart. 491 00:24:15,560 --> 00:24:19,680 Speaker 3: Joe Wisenthal single handedly changed journalism and business and cider. 492 00:24:19,840 --> 00:24:23,520 Speaker 2: Did you meet before Bloomberger? Here? We met before Bloomberg. 493 00:24:24,119 --> 00:24:25,800 Speaker 2: I mean we mostly met on the internet. 494 00:24:25,800 --> 00:24:27,760 Speaker 9: We had like met like at a bar, probably in 495 00:24:27,920 --> 00:24:29,560 Speaker 9: some sort of like journalist happy hours. 496 00:24:29,640 --> 00:24:32,040 Speaker 10: Well, so Joe was always sort of a presence, just 497 00:24:32,080 --> 00:24:34,480 Speaker 10: floating in the ether the internet in my head. But 498 00:24:34,560 --> 00:24:37,280 Speaker 10: the first time we met in person I remember distinctly 499 00:24:37,400 --> 00:24:40,119 Speaker 10: because it was at a bar in Midtown and I 500 00:24:40,200 --> 00:24:42,359 Speaker 10: was excited to meet you, and I go up to you, 501 00:24:42,400 --> 00:24:44,480 Speaker 10: and you know how the first time you meet someone, 502 00:24:44,520 --> 00:24:46,080 Speaker 10: you expect a little bit of small talk. 503 00:24:46,640 --> 00:24:47,639 Speaker 2: How's it going. 504 00:24:47,920 --> 00:24:51,040 Speaker 10: The first question Joe asked me was what do you 505 00:24:51,040 --> 00:24:53,800 Speaker 10: think is going on with the Eurozone? And that was it, 506 00:24:53,840 --> 00:24:56,400 Speaker 10: and the whole conversation was just about the Eurozone after that. 507 00:24:56,320 --> 00:24:58,080 Speaker 2: Sounds fun, Yeah, it's fun. 508 00:24:58,320 --> 00:25:00,480 Speaker 9: We've been having fun talking about the Erozone since. 509 00:25:00,600 --> 00:25:00,760 Speaker 3: You know. 510 00:25:00,840 --> 00:25:02,960 Speaker 9: That was the first time in ten years that I 511 00:25:02,960 --> 00:25:05,440 Speaker 9: have listened to that intro to the first episode. 512 00:25:05,720 --> 00:25:08,000 Speaker 2: It's better than I think. Yeah, I was going to 513 00:25:08,040 --> 00:25:08,680 Speaker 2: say the same thing. 514 00:25:08,720 --> 00:25:11,879 Speaker 9: It didn't sound quite as bad and awkward as I expected. 515 00:25:12,160 --> 00:25:14,359 Speaker 2: I have my memories from that time. 516 00:25:14,600 --> 00:25:17,199 Speaker 9: You know, the first episode with Tom was great, but 517 00:25:17,240 --> 00:25:18,800 Speaker 9: my memories from that time was like, oh, it was 518 00:25:18,880 --> 00:25:21,440 Speaker 9: very uncomfortable figuring out what we were doing on the podcast. 519 00:25:21,520 --> 00:25:22,760 Speaker 9: It didn't sound terrible, didn't. 520 00:25:23,119 --> 00:25:24,640 Speaker 2: No, you make it up as you go. 521 00:25:25,400 --> 00:25:29,080 Speaker 3: As a cardinal rule, I never ever listened to anything 522 00:25:29,240 --> 00:25:32,240 Speaker 3: we can't can't. The only time I've broken that rule, Paul, 523 00:25:32,359 --> 00:25:35,040 Speaker 3: was Joe Stieglitz and Ken Rogoff at Davos. 524 00:25:35,200 --> 00:25:37,879 Speaker 2: That's the only thing I've ever listened Tracy. 525 00:25:37,920 --> 00:25:41,560 Speaker 4: Yet, Howsey the podcast evolved over these ten years, have 526 00:25:41,600 --> 00:25:42,280 Speaker 4: you guys changed the. 527 00:25:42,240 --> 00:25:43,680 Speaker 2: Way you'll kind of think about it? 528 00:25:43,920 --> 00:25:44,200 Speaker 5: Yeah? 529 00:25:44,320 --> 00:25:47,440 Speaker 10: I mean, actually that intro wasn't too bad in terms 530 00:25:47,440 --> 00:25:49,320 Speaker 10: of framing what we were going to do. 531 00:25:50,000 --> 00:25:50,960 Speaker 2: But we were very lucky. 532 00:25:51,040 --> 00:25:53,640 Speaker 10: We had a very long runway in doing this because, 533 00:25:53,680 --> 00:25:56,439 Speaker 10: as you said, even ten years ago, podcasts were not 534 00:25:56,560 --> 00:25:59,479 Speaker 10: as popular as they are now, and so we launched 535 00:25:59,480 --> 00:26:02,040 Speaker 10: this before or Bloomberg even had a podcast team. We 536 00:26:02,040 --> 00:26:04,840 Speaker 10: were doing it with radio and have a team. 537 00:26:04,640 --> 00:26:05,119 Speaker 2: Right, we have a. 538 00:26:06,760 --> 00:26:09,520 Speaker 10: Yeah, so shout out to Bloomberg Podcasts of course, But 539 00:26:10,200 --> 00:26:12,760 Speaker 10: you know, no one was really listening, No, one internally 540 00:26:13,119 --> 00:26:15,760 Speaker 10: was pressuring us to make sure that we were growing, 541 00:26:15,800 --> 00:26:18,679 Speaker 10: and so we were really allowed to explore and figure 542 00:26:18,680 --> 00:26:20,960 Speaker 10: out what it is that we wanted to talk to 543 00:26:21,000 --> 00:26:21,520 Speaker 10: talk about. 544 00:26:21,720 --> 00:26:23,680 Speaker 9: I do think at the beginning, you know, we had 545 00:26:23,720 --> 00:26:26,240 Speaker 9: this impulse it's like, let's just talk about anything other 546 00:26:26,280 --> 00:26:29,280 Speaker 9: than what's in the news, right and so it's like, Okay, 547 00:26:29,320 --> 00:26:31,760 Speaker 9: the news is talking about the Fed, et cetera. So 548 00:26:31,840 --> 00:26:34,679 Speaker 9: we'll talk to Tom Keane about ban Joe's and guitars 549 00:26:34,720 --> 00:26:37,440 Speaker 9: and charting by hand and stuff like that, because this 550 00:26:37,480 --> 00:26:39,679 Speaker 9: is not something that would ever, you know, be in 551 00:26:39,720 --> 00:26:43,040 Speaker 9: the news. Over time, I think we've definitely become we've 552 00:26:43,080 --> 00:26:45,600 Speaker 9: definitely become a little bit more we hew to the news. 553 00:26:45,400 --> 00:26:47,320 Speaker 2: But not, you know, not intensely. 554 00:26:47,359 --> 00:26:50,440 Speaker 9: We did an episode this week about the dairy industry 555 00:26:50,960 --> 00:26:53,639 Speaker 9: that's something prime in the news. Not really, so we 556 00:26:53,680 --> 00:26:55,679 Speaker 9: sort of mix it up still, but it's become a 557 00:26:55,720 --> 00:26:57,080 Speaker 9: bit more timely. 558 00:26:57,119 --> 00:26:59,040 Speaker 2: I guess you'd say, I'm amazed. 559 00:26:59,080 --> 00:27:01,040 Speaker 4: I'm sure you guys are as well, just how many 560 00:27:01,080 --> 00:27:05,720 Speaker 4: podcasts there are now. It's such a popular medium for everybody, 561 00:27:05,760 --> 00:27:08,080 Speaker 4: from the famous folks down to people you've never heard 562 00:27:08,080 --> 00:27:09,959 Speaker 4: of that just want to I don't know, get their 563 00:27:10,000 --> 00:27:13,560 Speaker 4: voice out. How do you guys kind of position your podcast. 564 00:27:13,160 --> 00:27:14,680 Speaker 2: With all the stuff that's out there. 565 00:27:15,119 --> 00:27:17,920 Speaker 10: You know, we get asked about competition quite a lot, 566 00:27:17,960 --> 00:27:21,200 Speaker 10: and I've heard of people launching podcasts because they want 567 00:27:21,240 --> 00:27:23,800 Speaker 10: their own lots at competitors, Like I hear that all 568 00:27:23,840 --> 00:27:26,920 Speaker 10: the time. It actually it probably bothers me a little 569 00:27:26,920 --> 00:27:30,800 Speaker 10: bit more than flats. But the only thing, the only 570 00:27:30,880 --> 00:27:33,879 Speaker 10: response you could possibly do is just keep on going 571 00:27:33,920 --> 00:27:37,200 Speaker 10: and try to have the best, most engaging interviews possible 572 00:27:37,240 --> 00:27:39,359 Speaker 10: and the best content. So we kind of just keep 573 00:27:39,520 --> 00:27:40,760 Speaker 10: doing what we have been doing. 574 00:27:40,920 --> 00:27:43,720 Speaker 3: John Nicholswat, editor in chief of Bloomberg News, out with 575 00:27:43,760 --> 00:27:46,960 Speaker 3: a note today on the celebration of Joe Wisenthal, Tracy. 576 00:27:46,760 --> 00:27:48,320 Speaker 2: Laway, and Odd Laws. 577 00:27:48,359 --> 00:27:51,159 Speaker 3: At the back end of his note, he's looking for 578 00:27:51,240 --> 00:27:52,200 Speaker 3: stadium tours. 579 00:27:52,240 --> 00:27:53,440 Speaker 2: What's the plan forward? 580 00:27:53,480 --> 00:27:55,800 Speaker 3: Are you going to keep it under ten thousand live 581 00:27:55,840 --> 00:27:57,919 Speaker 3: events or can you pop out the twenty thousand? 582 00:27:58,000 --> 00:28:02,840 Speaker 9: I think we play Daryl Royal Stadium in Austin, Texas 583 00:28:03,040 --> 00:28:05,960 Speaker 9: back one day. That's obviously the dream. No, you know, 584 00:28:06,119 --> 00:28:08,080 Speaker 9: like this is the fun thing, which is that because 585 00:28:08,119 --> 00:28:10,399 Speaker 9: we have like this community of listeners that we've built 586 00:28:10,840 --> 00:28:12,520 Speaker 9: for a long time, we've been able to you know, 587 00:28:12,560 --> 00:28:14,399 Speaker 9: it is mostly still a podcast, but we have a 588 00:28:15,560 --> 00:28:18,520 Speaker 9: daily newsletter, and we have a discord channel where people 589 00:28:18,680 --> 00:28:20,840 Speaker 9: get together online and they chat twenty four to seven 590 00:28:20,880 --> 00:28:23,600 Speaker 9: about topics they're interested in relating to things we talk about. 591 00:28:23,680 --> 00:28:25,879 Speaker 9: And we've been doing more and more live shows. We 592 00:28:25,920 --> 00:28:27,840 Speaker 9: did more in twenty twenty five than we did in 593 00:28:27,880 --> 00:28:30,200 Speaker 9: twenty twenty four, and I think twenty twenty six will 594 00:28:30,200 --> 00:28:32,960 Speaker 9: be a big year for that. It's fun meeting fans 595 00:28:33,440 --> 00:28:36,679 Speaker 9: in various cities and seeing what they're into, and so 596 00:28:36,800 --> 00:28:39,720 Speaker 9: hopefully across the country. Maybe some in Europe, don't you 597 00:28:39,840 --> 00:28:40,560 Speaker 9: maybe Hong Kong. 598 00:28:40,640 --> 00:28:41,760 Speaker 2: See does I have? 599 00:28:41,840 --> 00:28:43,600 Speaker 3: And I don't know where I got to some I'm 600 00:28:43,600 --> 00:28:46,080 Speaker 3: going to blame it on my father. Both of you 601 00:28:46,680 --> 00:28:48,800 Speaker 3: don't talk down to your audience. 602 00:28:49,200 --> 00:28:50,360 Speaker 2: How do you do that? Tracy? 603 00:28:51,400 --> 00:28:54,160 Speaker 10: So, I think this is really important to understand. I 604 00:28:54,160 --> 00:28:57,640 Speaker 10: think the media has a tendency maybe to oversimplify things. 605 00:28:58,080 --> 00:29:01,000 Speaker 10: Bullet points became very popular, not saying that there isn't 606 00:29:01,000 --> 00:29:04,320 Speaker 10: a place for summarias and simplification, but I think what 607 00:29:04,360 --> 00:29:08,160 Speaker 10: we've discovered through odd blots is that people really want 608 00:29:08,200 --> 00:29:10,840 Speaker 10: to learn and What ends up happening is we do 609 00:29:10,960 --> 00:29:14,640 Speaker 10: one episode on a topic. Semiconductors is the classic example. 610 00:29:14,640 --> 00:29:17,560 Speaker 10: We started talking about those in early twenty twenty, and 611 00:29:17,600 --> 00:29:19,720 Speaker 10: then everyone just gets interested in it. 612 00:29:19,920 --> 00:29:21,480 Speaker 2: We get interested in it, and we. 613 00:29:21,440 --> 00:29:24,480 Speaker 10: Just do more and more hours and we learn alongside 614 00:29:24,480 --> 00:29:25,360 Speaker 10: our listeners. 615 00:29:25,440 --> 00:29:27,959 Speaker 4: Is there is there a guest that you've wanted to 616 00:29:28,000 --> 00:29:29,200 Speaker 4: get you just haven't gotten? 617 00:29:29,280 --> 00:29:30,520 Speaker 2: Really? Not really? 618 00:29:30,600 --> 00:29:32,960 Speaker 9: I mean, look, there's always you can always list big 619 00:29:33,080 --> 00:29:35,600 Speaker 9: names that would be fun to have on the podcast. 620 00:29:35,640 --> 00:29:41,560 Speaker 9: I just don't Chris Stapleton, Okay, yes, right, there are 621 00:29:41,560 --> 00:29:44,120 Speaker 9: some major country stars I'd love to have on No, 622 00:29:44,200 --> 00:29:46,840 Speaker 9: but for real, like, there's always names, right, there's always 623 00:29:47,000 --> 00:29:49,440 Speaker 9: you know, I never had almost got. 624 00:29:49,280 --> 00:29:51,840 Speaker 2: To get people soliciting me. Can you get me on Oddline? 625 00:29:52,200 --> 00:29:55,880 Speaker 2: Don't tell? Okay, you know it's funny. 626 00:29:55,880 --> 00:29:57,520 Speaker 9: I always tell people if you have an idea, to 627 00:29:57,560 --> 00:30:00,600 Speaker 9: pitch it and people think I'm joking or I don't 628 00:30:00,640 --> 00:30:00,880 Speaker 9: pitch it. 629 00:30:00,960 --> 00:30:05,959 Speaker 3: Right, here's the Oddlot's guest for Joe Wise and Thought Tracy. 630 00:30:06,000 --> 00:30:09,480 Speaker 3: You can play along as well. You must speak with 631 00:30:09,600 --> 00:30:14,320 Speaker 3: John McBride of Blackbird's studio in Nashville. Gat Love the 632 00:30:14,400 --> 00:30:19,160 Speaker 3: largest correct collection of the stuff that's someone like Chris Stapleton, singer. 633 00:30:19,240 --> 00:30:20,080 Speaker 2: I would love to do that. 634 00:30:20,120 --> 00:30:24,160 Speaker 3: He's Martina McBride's husband and he do you have a contact? 635 00:30:24,200 --> 00:30:26,920 Speaker 2: I call it Blackbird, you know, use my name and 636 00:30:27,200 --> 00:30:27,600 Speaker 2: hang up. 637 00:30:29,400 --> 00:30:31,360 Speaker 10: How we end up with an All Bloughts live show 638 00:30:31,400 --> 00:30:31,920 Speaker 10: in Nashville. 639 00:30:32,400 --> 00:30:37,080 Speaker 3: Yes, I was at the Bluebird Cafe years ago, and 640 00:30:37,120 --> 00:30:39,600 Speaker 3: the studs are in the back row, including a younger 641 00:30:39,680 --> 00:30:43,800 Speaker 3: John McBride. But John McBride deserves. 642 00:30:43,200 --> 00:30:44,320 Speaker 2: To be on Odd Loss. 643 00:30:44,920 --> 00:30:45,960 Speaker 9: That a great episode. 644 00:30:46,120 --> 00:30:47,960 Speaker 2: That would be a great episode. That's how it works. 645 00:30:48,520 --> 00:30:49,560 Speaker 2: I'm sorry, Tracy, I. 646 00:30:51,880 --> 00:30:54,200 Speaker 10: Like country. I just want to say Tom, thank you 647 00:30:54,280 --> 00:30:58,760 Speaker 10: for being our first guest. First guest we could imagine. 648 00:30:58,880 --> 00:31:03,360 Speaker 2: Odd lots here at tenth anniversary self abration. Stay with us. 649 00:31:03,560 --> 00:31:06,800 Speaker 3: More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this. 650 00:31:14,040 --> 00:31:17,640 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live 651 00:31:17,680 --> 00:31:20,840 Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on 652 00:31:20,920 --> 00:31:24,600 Speaker 1: Applecarplay and Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business app, or 653 00:31:24,760 --> 00:31:26,200 Speaker 1: watch us live on YouTube. 654 00:31:26,360 --> 00:31:28,600 Speaker 3: Let's get right to it with Futures up twenty four, 655 00:31:28,720 --> 00:31:31,440 Speaker 3: Joy in the markets, Joy with the newspapers. 656 00:31:31,440 --> 00:31:32,200 Speaker 2: Here's lisaming to you. 657 00:31:32,400 --> 00:31:34,640 Speaker 11: Okay, we've been hearing a lot about all the spending 658 00:31:34,720 --> 00:31:37,720 Speaker 11: going into AI. But where is the money coming from 659 00:31:37,800 --> 00:31:40,320 Speaker 11: for these mega deals? That's the question, right. So the 660 00:31:40,360 --> 00:31:42,400 Speaker 11: Wall Street Journal actually has a look into some of 661 00:31:42,440 --> 00:31:47,320 Speaker 11: the deals of some of the biggest AI infrastructure ones Meta, OpenAI, Xai, 662 00:31:47,760 --> 00:31:51,760 Speaker 11: and it shows actually some creative, sometimes risky funding options. 663 00:31:51,800 --> 00:31:55,000 Speaker 11: They call them Frankenstein financing because they're picking and pulling 664 00:31:55,000 --> 00:31:57,360 Speaker 11: from different places. So I'll give you an example. Okay, 665 00:31:57,400 --> 00:32:00,840 Speaker 11: so Blue Owl Capital they struck with they stuck with Meta. 666 00:32:01,080 --> 00:32:03,920 Speaker 11: They're joint venture to build this giant data center in Louisiana. 667 00:32:04,000 --> 00:32:06,480 Speaker 11: But sources are telling the Wall Street Journal blue Owl 668 00:32:06,760 --> 00:32:09,800 Speaker 11: buying private equity into the deal. They're bringing them private 669 00:32:09,840 --> 00:32:11,680 Speaker 11: equity to the del They're also receiving a debt light 670 00:32:11,760 --> 00:32:15,400 Speaker 11: guarantee from Meta. If the partnership falls apart. Then you 671 00:32:15,440 --> 00:32:18,440 Speaker 11: look into the deal involving open Ai and Oracle, and 672 00:32:18,480 --> 00:32:20,520 Speaker 11: the Wall Street Journal says it involves a lending group 673 00:32:20,560 --> 00:32:21,880 Speaker 11: of more than thirty banks. 674 00:32:22,040 --> 00:32:23,000 Speaker 2: So this is where they're doing it. 675 00:32:23,120 --> 00:32:25,840 Speaker 11: There's a lot of issues behind it, but a lot 676 00:32:25,880 --> 00:32:27,560 Speaker 11: to get into in that article. You're gonna have to 677 00:32:27,600 --> 00:32:30,000 Speaker 11: take a look at it. For yourself, because it's very 678 00:32:30,080 --> 00:32:32,320 Speaker 11: like detailed. Then it's get a lot of track. 679 00:32:32,400 --> 00:32:36,040 Speaker 4: It's private equity, it's target credit, it's banks, it's they're 680 00:32:36,160 --> 00:32:39,120 Speaker 4: looking for capital anywhere. And these are companies meta Google 681 00:32:39,160 --> 00:32:42,680 Speaker 4: that have just Iron Clan balance sheets, but even their 682 00:32:42,720 --> 00:32:44,880 Speaker 4: balance sheets are being challenged. 683 00:32:44,920 --> 00:32:47,960 Speaker 2: Here somebody is spending. We don't know the time. I 684 00:32:48,000 --> 00:32:50,520 Speaker 2: could Paul been there, done that. 685 00:32:51,960 --> 00:32:53,720 Speaker 4: I haven't seen the dollars here. I just add the 686 00:32:53,760 --> 00:32:56,040 Speaker 4: dollars today are just short. 687 00:32:57,320 --> 00:32:59,480 Speaker 2: Next week. Okay. This one is about Harvard. 688 00:32:59,600 --> 00:33:02,040 Speaker 11: So the school says they're handing out too many a's 689 00:33:02,120 --> 00:33:04,720 Speaker 11: to students. There was a report that the school put out. 690 00:33:04,800 --> 00:33:08,800 Speaker 11: It shows great inflation across the board. Faculty says they're 691 00:33:08,840 --> 00:33:12,120 Speaker 11: surprised at how lenient grading is. The students. They're not 692 00:33:12,200 --> 00:33:14,880 Speaker 11: happy about it. They say they deserve the grades. They 693 00:33:14,880 --> 00:33:17,120 Speaker 11: say they study a lot, they sleep a little bit, 694 00:33:17,160 --> 00:33:19,640 Speaker 11: they stress out. They feel Harvard shouldn't kind of move 695 00:33:19,680 --> 00:33:22,320 Speaker 11: the goalposts, right, So that's what they're saying. 696 00:33:22,320 --> 00:33:26,200 Speaker 4: A lot of students saying Harvard, it's got the Harvard name. 697 00:33:26,240 --> 00:33:28,000 Speaker 2: You're done, okay. 698 00:33:28,280 --> 00:33:32,320 Speaker 3: Major Specific is our wonderful conversation with Troy Gayski of MIT. 699 00:33:32,920 --> 00:33:33,720 Speaker 2: The other day. 700 00:33:34,040 --> 00:33:36,920 Speaker 3: If you look at the different majors in the school, Lisa, 701 00:33:36,920 --> 00:33:39,920 Speaker 3: whether it's Harvard or Slippery Rock, I don't care. There 702 00:33:39,960 --> 00:33:43,840 Speaker 3: are certain majors where there's no great inflation, like economics, 703 00:33:44,280 --> 00:33:48,360 Speaker 3: like engineering, like medicine, Paul, give me some other names. 704 00:33:47,720 --> 00:33:50,240 Speaker 2: And the science, the Harvard. 705 00:33:50,520 --> 00:33:53,200 Speaker 3: Chemistry, which is the toughest major in any school. Everybody 706 00:33:53,280 --> 00:33:55,640 Speaker 3: knows that. The rest of them. Everybody gets an ay. 707 00:33:56,080 --> 00:33:59,040 Speaker 3: I mean, I've lived in my family. Absolutely, you don't 708 00:34:00,240 --> 00:34:02,240 Speaker 3: get me a Tito's intake in the control run on 709 00:34:02,360 --> 00:34:03,960 Speaker 3: an emergency basis. 710 00:34:04,320 --> 00:34:08,040 Speaker 11: Next, it's just you know, Okay, we all know Apple users. 711 00:34:08,040 --> 00:34:10,440 Speaker 11: They love their iPhones, right, but a lot of people 712 00:34:10,560 --> 00:34:13,480 Speaker 11: are making it part of their outfit. Apple wants to 713 00:34:13,560 --> 00:34:16,920 Speaker 11: capitalize on this with wearable iPhone fashion. 714 00:34:17,239 --> 00:34:17,880 Speaker 2: I kid you not. 715 00:34:17,960 --> 00:34:20,959 Speaker 11: It is teaming up with Japanese luxury fashion brand isse 716 00:34:21,080 --> 00:34:24,920 Speaker 11: Miake for this limited time iPhone pocket. Okay, you can 717 00:34:24,960 --> 00:34:27,120 Speaker 11: check it out on their website. It goes on sale Friday. 718 00:34:27,680 --> 00:34:29,560 Speaker 11: So the pocket, it looks like a sock like. It 719 00:34:29,560 --> 00:34:31,319 Speaker 11: comes in a number of colors, is kind of knit. 720 00:34:31,520 --> 00:34:33,600 Speaker 11: There's a short one and a long one. Okay, the 721 00:34:33,640 --> 00:34:36,400 Speaker 11: long one, it's like a crossbody Okay, it's about two 722 00:34:36,480 --> 00:34:38,760 Speaker 11: hundred and thirty dollars just to slip your little iPhone 723 00:34:38,760 --> 00:34:39,080 Speaker 11: in there. 724 00:34:39,200 --> 00:34:41,720 Speaker 3: But it is a definite license for somebody to steal 725 00:34:41,840 --> 00:34:44,400 Speaker 3: your fancy. I mean, this is kind of putting it 726 00:34:44,480 --> 00:34:48,320 Speaker 3: out there. People are stealing iPhones, yes, a true. 727 00:34:48,360 --> 00:34:50,400 Speaker 2: Now I'm sitting a flag on it saying here, Sam, 728 00:34:50,480 --> 00:34:51,200 Speaker 2: here I am. 729 00:34:52,640 --> 00:34:52,920 Speaker 5: It is. 730 00:34:52,960 --> 00:34:55,120 Speaker 11: And they're attaching them to their backs like those. 731 00:34:55,120 --> 00:34:56,960 Speaker 4: I see all the tersts here, at all the tersts 732 00:34:56,960 --> 00:34:58,760 Speaker 4: here in New York, they've got these little the little 733 00:34:58,800 --> 00:35:01,000 Speaker 4: packs that go across the shoulder, across their breath. And 734 00:35:01,040 --> 00:35:03,960 Speaker 4: I noticed it when I was in Italy. Everybody had it. 735 00:35:04,040 --> 00:35:06,120 Speaker 4: I mean, so people are I'm like, just put it 736 00:35:06,120 --> 00:35:08,160 Speaker 4: in your front pocket. Put the you know, your your 737 00:35:08,160 --> 00:35:08,759 Speaker 4: wallet in front. 738 00:35:08,760 --> 00:35:11,520 Speaker 11: It's a fashion statement. But I didn't even realize, like 739 00:35:11,520 --> 00:35:14,840 Speaker 11: a Sam a Yankee did the black turtlenext that Steve Jobs. 740 00:35:15,840 --> 00:35:18,160 Speaker 2: Should I get the fashion debate right now? Quickly? 741 00:35:18,360 --> 00:35:22,359 Speaker 3: Should I get the big scarf? Gary Oldhoman? You know 742 00:35:22,600 --> 00:35:23,759 Speaker 3: everybody's giant far. 743 00:35:25,640 --> 00:35:31,000 Speaker 11: The big fashion is like John Tucker has fashion played. 744 00:35:34,280 --> 00:35:39,120 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, 745 00:35:39,239 --> 00:35:43,520 Speaker 1: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday, 746 00:35:43,640 --> 00:35:47,160 Speaker 1: seven to ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot Com, the 747 00:35:47,200 --> 00:35:51,239 Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business App. You 748 00:35:51,280 --> 00:35:54,640 Speaker 1: can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and 749 00:35:54,840 --> 00:35:56,560 Speaker 1: always on the Bloomberg Terminal 750 00:36:00,640 --> 00:36:02,360 Speaker 10: Everything know how to s