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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast, the number one show

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Speaker 1: for the invested sports fan.

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Speaker 2: All Right, here we go.

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Speaker 3: We're growing in Joe spectacular catch. I'm saying it's a

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Speaker 3: catch touchdown.

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Speaker 1: We'll see most gamblers when they go to gamble, they

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Speaker 1: go to win. God, that's incredible. Big Banks, I'm all banks,

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Speaker 1: I like to make money.

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Speaker 4: All right.

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Speaker 2: That is the ultimate Kabai want to be.

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Speaker 1: And we are underway.

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Speaker 3: Hello, everyone, welcome back to another NFL episode of the

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Speaker 3: Action Network Podcast. I'm Matthew Friedman, the editor in chief

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Speaker 3: of Fantasy Labs. I'm joined by two of the best

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Speaker 3: in the fantasy business, Seawn Corner and Chris Raybond. Sewn

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Speaker 3: is the Action Network director of Predictive Analytics and one

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Speaker 3: of the top end season fantasy football rankers for the

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Speaker 3: past half decade, and Chris is a senior editor and

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Speaker 3: analyst at the Action Network and a co host of

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Speaker 3: the Action Network show on Serious XM Fantasy Radio. Fellas,

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Speaker 3: we have got a special episode today, one that everyone

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Speaker 3: will definitely want to share with people who are getting

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Speaker 3: ready for their fantasy drafts. It is a Fantasy one

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Speaker 3: oh one episode, or what we're gently calling not boldly

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Speaker 3: but gently calling the experts guide to fantasy drafting os maker,

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Speaker 3: Ray bon Are you guys ready to act like fantasy

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Speaker 3: experts always you were born ready? If you like our

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Speaker 3: recent episodes, do us a favorite, rate and review the show, subscribe, unsubscribe,

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Speaker 3: and resubscribe. Guys, let's jump into it. So this is

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Speaker 3: a kind of big picture focused episode. If you are

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Speaker 3: you know, a quote unquote fantasy expert, I think you

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Speaker 3: can still get a lot out of the show. But

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Speaker 3: this is maybe intended a little more for the people

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Speaker 3: who aren't quite as hardcore, or for the people who

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Speaker 3: maybe don't play as much throughout the off season but

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Speaker 3: are just kind of getting into their draft prep part

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Speaker 3: of the off season. And I think we should start

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Speaker 3: by talking about positional strategy. And that seems to be

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Speaker 3: like one of the things that people focus on the most.

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Speaker 3: Are you going robust running back? Are you going zero RB?

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Speaker 3: Are you going late round quarterback? So there are lots

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Speaker 3: of ways that people can kind of structural ways that

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Speaker 3: people can approach their drafts. My question is, and Raybond

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Speaker 3: will start with you, what are some of the big picture,

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Speaker 3: kind of positional focused ways in which you are approaching

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Speaker 3: your drafts.

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Speaker 4: I think you want to get as many feature backs,

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Speaker 4: three down backs as you can early in the draft

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Speaker 4: because they're not gonna be hurt by poor game script

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Speaker 4: if they get if a team gets down, they can

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Speaker 4: still catch the ball.

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Speaker 1: They're getting a lot of usage.

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Speaker 4: And the number one thing that you can use to

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Speaker 4: predict running back production is always volume. It doesn't matter

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Speaker 4: if a guy is like, you know, three point nine

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Speaker 4: yards of carry or four point three yards of carry.

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Speaker 1: If he's getting twenty carries, he's gonna put up numbers.

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Speaker 4: You really want to get those running backs because there's

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Speaker 4: a lot less of a supply of them than wide

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Speaker 4: receipt where you have you know, pretty much the NFL

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Speaker 4: has morphed into a shotgun league that you shot gun

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Speaker 4: on about sixty percent of the plays now, so there's

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Speaker 4: always three wide receivers on the field. That means ninety

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Speaker 4: six wide receivers when you look at all the teams,

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Speaker 4: and a lot of those guys.

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Speaker 1: Will be viable.

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Speaker 4: But running backs, there's not many backs that are getting

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Speaker 4: a lot of volume, and so you always want to

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Speaker 4: kind of lock those guys up, even if it means

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Speaker 4: taking a couple of risks early in the draft, maybe

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Speaker 4: in those third, fourth, fifth rounds that frozen pondsier that

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Speaker 4: Sean likes to call it. You know, it's you're gonna

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Speaker 4: need startuble games from your running back because running backs

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Speaker 4: get hurt more than any other position.

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Speaker 1: They average about two to four miss games a year.

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Speaker 4: So let's say you start three running backs or two

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Speaker 4: running backs in a flex, you're going to need you know,

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Speaker 4: those two running backs. But if they're going to miss

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Speaker 4: let's say three games, now you're already down to you know,

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Speaker 4: that's six games are going to be without, So you

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Speaker 4: definitely need like a third quality running back just to

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Speaker 4: make up those like expected six games missed. Then there's

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Speaker 4: gonna be times when you know, there's tough matchups, you know,

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Speaker 4: unexpected things happen.

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Speaker 1: Maybe a guy just doesn't perform expectation, so you're gonna

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Speaker 1: need probably even another running back to cover for him.

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Speaker 4: So you don't want to just kind of overlook that

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Speaker 4: and say, hey, I'll just get one of these Maybe

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Speaker 4: if you're in a PPR league, you think I can

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Speaker 4: just get one of these guys that catches a lot

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Speaker 4: of passes late in the draft to be fine, you

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Speaker 4: have to also think about the startability, the predictability and

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Speaker 4: of that startability, like you always want to try to

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Speaker 4: get those guys who are getting those fifteen to twenty

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Speaker 4: touches a week early in your draft and just lock

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Speaker 4: up or attempt to lock up as many of them

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Speaker 4: as you can.

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Speaker 3: Sean Raybond has talked a little bit about more of

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Speaker 3: a rope bust running back approach. What are your thoughts

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Speaker 3: on that, and then also do you have thoughts on

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Speaker 3: the quarterback position.

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Speaker 5: The running back position is the most important in fantasy.

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Speaker 5: It's the most volatile, you know, hardest to predict year

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Speaker 5: to year, but it's the most valuable at the same time.

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Speaker 5: Because of that, we have to remember running backs typically

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Speaker 5: get injured more. They they get tackled the most out

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Speaker 5: of any position, and they're usually, you know, the smallest

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Speaker 5: frame on the field. So that sort of a lens

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Speaker 5: of the volatility is just the injury concern that every

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Speaker 5: running back is going to have. We're sort of in

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Speaker 5: the era of the running back by committee. Back in

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Speaker 5: the glory days when I first started playing fans football,

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Speaker 5: there used to be just one running back and they

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Speaker 5: would get every carry, and they would play every third

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Speaker 5: down and get every reception on the backfield that just

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Speaker 5: doesn't happen as much anymore. So these workhorse running backs,

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Speaker 5: they're super valuable right now. So that's why they're a

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Speaker 5: must draft in my opinion, if you have the one

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Speaker 5: of the first three picks. Because of the variability and unpredictability,

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Speaker 5: you have some people that like to shy away from

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Speaker 5: running back early.

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Speaker 2: I'm not one of those people.

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Speaker 5: I typically shy away from the frozen pond because I

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Speaker 5: think those are sort of the guys that we don't

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Speaker 5: really know the role, what the role will be. With

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Speaker 5: that kind of variability, I don't like spending early draft

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Speaker 5: capital on them.

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Speaker 2: When it comes to.

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Speaker 5: Quarterback, that's typically the highest scoring position of fans football,

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Speaker 5: but also the most predictable. So that's why you don't

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Speaker 5: see experts taking quarterbacks very early, is because there isn't

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Speaker 5: that much of a drop off as there are at

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Speaker 5: the running back position, So experts typically wait till the

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Speaker 5: end of the draft to take a quarterback because there's

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Speaker 5: plenty of valuable still, you know, sitting there later. To

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Speaker 5: the positions I actually don't even draft at all in

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Speaker 5: my fantasy drafts are kicker and defense. Unless there's some

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Speaker 5: rule where the league kind of forces you to take that.

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Speaker 5: I typically don't draft a kicker defense and use the

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Speaker 5: waiver wire to pick the top kicker defense each week.

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Speaker 5: By freeing up those two extra slots of the draft,

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Speaker 5: I just add two more running backs, you know, heading

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Speaker 5: into the season, I like to have six to eight

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Speaker 5: running backs on my team and try to catch some

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Speaker 5: late preseason injury where you know, all of a sudden,

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Speaker 5: I have a starting running back on my team. So

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Speaker 5: I like to load up as much as possible at

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Speaker 5: running back heading into the season.

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Speaker 3: Because of that, Let's talk about the flex position there,

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Speaker 3: because I think running back, if you have a lot

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Speaker 3: of running backs, one of those guys is likely to

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Speaker 3: end up being your flex player. Sean Siegel, for wrote

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Speaker 3: it Is, has talked about like the race to the

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Speaker 3: flex and the flex is being kind of the key

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Speaker 3: to winning your leagues. Sean, do you have kind of

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Speaker 3: strategies when it comes to what you're doing at your

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Speaker 3: flex position?

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Speaker 5: I do not have any specific strategy heading into the season.

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Speaker 5: I think the flex position itself is much more of

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Speaker 5: a week to week decision that you're gonna have to make.

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Speaker 5: So I recommend you read my weekly rankings breakdown to

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Speaker 5: sort of see which players you should be plugging at

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Speaker 5: the flex. I actually add in some flex rankings in

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Speaker 5: that to help you out across positions. So flex position

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Speaker 5: isn't some strategy I have going in the season, just

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Speaker 5: because every week you're gonna have various injuries, bye weeks,

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Speaker 5: depth chart shuffling around, So it's not something that you

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Speaker 5: can really plan out that far events. I consider that

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Speaker 5: a week to week decision that you have to make.

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Speaker 2: That at all.

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Speaker 1: It's just, you know, you shouldn't have a rigid strategy.

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Speaker 1: It's going to be a week three things.

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Speaker 4: Running backs are on a weekly basis, Like coming into

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Speaker 4: the week, running backs are going to be more predictable

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Speaker 4: in the sense that we can count on them usually

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Speaker 4: for you know, more touches, whereas a wide receiver we

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Speaker 4: don't always know how many targets they're going to get,

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Speaker 4: and those tend to vary a little more.

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Speaker 1: So running backs are usually ideal.

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Speaker 4: But that doesn't mean that, you know, you might have

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Speaker 4: just a bunch of good wide receivers and then you're

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Speaker 4: gonna need to play a wide receiver. So it's one

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Speaker 4: of those another reason that you should be loading up

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Speaker 4: on running backs, so you have those predictable players in

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Speaker 4: a given week. Because running backs in good matchups, they

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Speaker 4: tend to produce, Like, for example, running backs have better

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Speaker 4: stats at home. They tend to have better stats when

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Speaker 4: their team is the betting favorite as well, so you know,

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Speaker 4: because that puts them in in good situations. Teams run

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Speaker 4: a lot more when they're in a competitive game or

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Speaker 4: a game they can win, which we'll talk about in

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Speaker 4: a bit, So running backs are ideal.

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Speaker 1: But yeah, don't don't ever get caught up in a

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Speaker 1: rigid strategy with the flexure. Just play it week by week.

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Speaker 3: Obviously, every drea, every league is different. But do you

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Speaker 3: guys have preferences in terms of where you want to

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Speaker 3: be selecting in the first round, which obviously impacts where

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Speaker 3: you're selecting in the second round and third round and

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Speaker 3: so on.

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Speaker 2: Would you rather have.

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Speaker 3: A pick near the top, in the middle of the

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Speaker 3: round or near the end of the first round.

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Speaker 4: First, I'll say that I think this question and this

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Speaker 4: kind of thinking about this is a little overdone nowadays.

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Speaker 4: It's not like, if you're trying to get better at

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Speaker 4: fantasy drafting, the last thing you need to really be

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Speaker 4: focusing on is the first your first round pick or

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Speaker 4: your second round pick. Those are the two easiest position

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Speaker 4: things to do in the draft, and it's one where

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Speaker 4: you know it's hard to mess up. You know, if

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Speaker 4: it messes up, it's usually just some because it's some

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Speaker 4: bad luck or something like that. But from a strategic standpoint,

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Speaker 4: I tend to like drafting a little later in the

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Speaker 4: first round and near the turn.

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Speaker 1: And for two reasons.

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Speaker 4: One is if I'm drafting right at the beginning, now

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Speaker 4: I also have to wait like twenty picks to to

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Speaker 4: get more players. And if I'm at the end of

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Speaker 4: the round, I can get two kind of top ten

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Speaker 4: guys or top twelve guys, which tends to be a

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Speaker 4: little better than like one top guy, and then two

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Speaker 4: guys who are just like fringe top twenty guys. Because

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Speaker 4: when you're picking at the top of the draft, it's

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Speaker 4: just normal regression to the meme, like the guy you're

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Speaker 4: drafting at the top. The only place you can really

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Speaker 4: go is down, you know. So I tend to like

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Speaker 4: being at the near the turn because not only am

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Speaker 4: I getting better players, but also if you're at the

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Speaker 4: turn and you're trying to execute the strategy that Sean mentioned,

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Speaker 4: which is wait for a quarterback because you're gonna be

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Speaker 4: able to get a very usable quarterback late in the

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Speaker 4: draft and on the waiver wire throughout the season for

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Speaker 4: those positions that you only need one player to start at.

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Speaker 4: If you're drafting and you're waiting on those positions, when

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Speaker 4: it starts to come time, you needed.

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Speaker 1: To select that guy.

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Speaker 4: If you're maybe there's one or two drafters in between

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Speaker 4: your spot and it coming back around to you on

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Speaker 4: the turn, you can now look and say, okay, well

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Speaker 4: I need a quarterback. But the two guys that are

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Speaker 4: going to draft after me, even though there's four picks

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Speaker 4: between them, they already have their quarterback. So I don't

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Speaker 4: think they're going to draft another quarterback here, and so

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Speaker 4: I can wait and I can get another running back

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Speaker 4: or another wide out or whoever else I need to

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Speaker 4: and still get good value on the quarterback I'm looking for.

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Speaker 4: So that's why I like it from a strategic standpoint,

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Speaker 4: just it helps you wait on those one starter positions

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Speaker 4: a bit longer.

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Speaker 3: Sean, do you value those high volume running backs so

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Speaker 3: much that you prefer the top picks in the first round.

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Speaker 5: I really don't care if I end up with the

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Speaker 5: eighth pick. I'm not going to sit there and complain

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Speaker 5: about it. It's all about the middle to late rounds

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Speaker 5: and n season management. When it comes down to winning

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Speaker 5: a championship. I think the first few rounds it's going

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Speaker 5: to come down to injury luck. There's really no bad

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Speaker 5: picks being taken in the first three rounds. I like

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Speaker 5: being in the middle of the draft, for the middle

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Speaker 5: of the late rounds, because when you have an end pick,

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Speaker 5: say the first pick or last pick, it tends to

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Speaker 5: force you to reach on players a little bit because

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Speaker 5: you don't know who's going to make it back, so

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Speaker 5: you kind of have to be a little more aggressive

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Speaker 5: on guys that you like.

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Speaker 2: That's an advantage that the middle rounds have.

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Speaker 5: You're kind of more aware of who might make it

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Speaker 5: back to you, and it's a little bit easier to

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Speaker 5: sort of snag value in the middle rounds because of that.

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Speaker 3: Let's talk about ceilings and floors in volatility, because I

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Speaker 3: kind of view these as two separate things. In season. Obviously,

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Speaker 3: week to week, I think there's a lot of there's

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Speaker 3: correlation between volatility and ceilings and floors like that just

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Speaker 3: makes like mathematical sense, but before the season starts, I

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Speaker 3: think people tend to conflate volatility and range of outcomes

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Speaker 3: a little more than they should. So, for instance, there's

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Speaker 3: the possibility that a running back might have a very

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Speaker 3: wide range of outcomes, but he could become the starter

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Speaker 3: and during the season he could week to week be

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Speaker 3: a very consistent player. Before the season starts, there is

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Speaker 3: a kind of a difference between range of outcomes in volatility.

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Speaker 3: But I'd be interested to hear what you guys think,

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Speaker 3: and specifically when you are looking to target we'll say,

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Speaker 3: kind of quote unquote like upside in your draft, and

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Speaker 3: when you are looking to target floor stability in your draft. Sean,

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Speaker 3: let's start with you.

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Speaker 5: When it comes to season long, there's just so much

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Speaker 5: volatility already that I don't tend to think in terms

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Speaker 5: of you know, ceiling and four as much as you

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Speaker 5: may think there's just so much volatility. I tend to

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Speaker 5: save that energy for weekly projections in dfs, just because

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Speaker 5: there's less margin of error when it comes to that.

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Speaker 5: One of the main big picture things that I think

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Speaker 5: most novices sort of fail see is just the general

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Speaker 5: expectation of you know, or range of outcomes when it

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Speaker 5: comes to taking players.

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Speaker 2: An example would be people.

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Speaker 5: Taking Sakon Barkley first overall this year if he does

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Speaker 5: not put up the top running back numbers. I have

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Speaker 5: people reach out telling me he was such a bus

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Speaker 5: this year because he was the number five running back,

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Speaker 5: and I think we might know that. You know, taking

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Speaker 5: him number one overall doesn't mean he's supposed to put

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Speaker 5: up the top point but I think a lot of

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Speaker 5: people overlook that what that means when you're taking him

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Speaker 5: first overall, he's just basically the most likely running back

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Speaker 5: to put up the most points. But I put his

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Speaker 5: ods right around fifteen to twenty percent that he'll actually

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Speaker 5: end up being the top scoring running back in twentyninighteen.

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Speaker 5: And you might think, well, why would I take a

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Speaker 5: guy with that low of odds, And the answer is

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Speaker 5: because he has the highest percent chance of being the

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Speaker 5: top scoring running back. No one else has better odds.

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Speaker 5: So just when you draft players, you kind of have

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Speaker 5: to know that wide range of outcomes that's just inherent

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Speaker 5: when it comes to fantas football, and I think just

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Speaker 5: having that mentality will help you sort of build a

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Speaker 5: roster around that and you know, do appropriate in season

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Speaker 5: management things that we could talk about a little bit later,

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Speaker 5: but I think just having an overall big picture on

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Speaker 5: you know, just the expected range of outcomes is massive

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Speaker 5: when it comes to season long fans football.

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Speaker 3: Raybon, I think you have an interesting way of approaching

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Speaker 3: suings and floors when it comes to preseason, like drafting

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Speaker 3: before the season actually starts, versus your weekly in season methodology.

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Speaker 3: Can you talk a little bit about how you're approaching

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Speaker 3: cilings and floors.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, so, I actually do like to look at range

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Speaker 4: of outcomes. Sean mentioned it's so important, and every player

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Speaker 4: is going to have a certain range of outcomes that

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Speaker 4: you have to be aware of. So what I like

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Speaker 4: to do is I like to look at receptions per game,

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Speaker 4: yards per game. Those stats tend to correlate a lot

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Speaker 4: more from year to year. Touchdowns are what's really volatile.

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Speaker 4: So I spend a lot of time looking at projecting

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Speaker 4: the catches and the yards or for running backs just

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Speaker 4: yardage and then you know, touchdown projections. I don't spend

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Speaker 4: it as much time trying to like nail them down

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Speaker 4: as far as Okay, I need exactly what this player

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Speaker 4: is going to produce. I just want to know more

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Speaker 4: what is the range of outcomes that he's going to produce,

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Speaker 4: because that informs me about what the median should be.

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Speaker 1: So I think if you.

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Speaker 4: Kind of understand that part of analyzing players, then it

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Speaker 4: gives you a lot more informed view. What a lot

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Speaker 4: of people do is they when they're trying to draft,

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Speaker 4: they say, hey, you know, why are you so low

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Speaker 4: low on a guy?

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Speaker 1: Or why are you so high on a guy?

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Speaker 4: I think he's going to do exactly this, this, and this,

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Speaker 4: And I'm like, well, that's not exactly how you should

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Speaker 4: think about it, because if you're attached to one outcome,

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Speaker 4: you're going to start making a lot of mistakes. If

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Speaker 4: you're just acting with the knowledge of the different ranges

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Speaker 4: of outcomes, you're going to cut down on your error

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Speaker 4: rates because you're already looking at what the error rates

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Speaker 4: would be. We're all, even us as experts, We're going

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Speaker 4: to whiff on a lot of projections. We're going to

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Speaker 4: make a lot of mistakes. There's no such thing as,

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Speaker 4: you know, being able to have a perfect draft. So

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Speaker 4: it's really about understanding that and then drafting to make

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Speaker 4: up for those mistakes, which is again why you know

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Speaker 4: Sean talked about a go and robust at running back,

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Speaker 4: you know, loading up with an extra running backs so

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Speaker 4: that you instead of a kicker and defense so that

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Speaker 4: you might get an extra starting running back for free.

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Speaker 1: It's because we know that injuries are going to happen.

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Speaker 4: We know that some offensive lines sometimes just completely fall apart,

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Speaker 4: and a good running back just has a poor season.

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Speaker 1: So that's why it's important to think in that way.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, And one thing kind of following up on it,

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Speaker 3: and that I think is attached to it in some

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Speaker 3: way is sample sizes. People miss thinking about range of

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Speaker 3: outcomes because they're not thinking of larger sample sizes. So

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Speaker 3: for instance, Melvin Gordon and Todd Gurley, if you looked

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Speaker 3: at them after their first two seasons, they had very

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Speaker 3: similar numbers, but most fantasy drafters looked at them differently

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Speaker 3: entering year three because they focused primarily on what the

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Speaker 3: guys had done the year before and not the total

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Speaker 3: production for years one and two. I think if you

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Speaker 3: have a larger sample, a larger scope, you tend to

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Speaker 3: think a little more holistically about the range of outcomes

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Speaker 3: and what guys could do because, if anything, you can

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Speaker 3: also just see more seasons and you see like, oh,

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Speaker 3: this guy, even though he might have similar usage, or

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Speaker 3: he's with the same surrounding players or the same coach,

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Speaker 3: the same offensive system. One year he did this, in

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Speaker 3: another year he did that. That gives you, I think,

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Speaker 3: like a much stronger sense of the range of outcomes there.

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Speaker 3: Let's talk about the So much focus is on the draft,

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Speaker 3: and that makes sense because that's how you get the

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Speaker 3: first iteration of your team, and especially for people who

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Speaker 3: are playing basketball, that's the only version of the team

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Speaker 3: that you get. What is the role of rankings? And

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Speaker 3: by the way, I should say again, we have rankings

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Speaker 3: available at actionnetwork dot com slash fantasy. What is the

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Speaker 3: role of rankings of ADP? How do you adjust on

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Speaker 3: the fly when you are in your draft.

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Speaker 4: This might be the most important point I wanted to

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Speaker 4: make in this podcast because so many people, let's face it,

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Speaker 4: you're you're gonna just be drafting off expert rankings, like

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Speaker 4: you don't have time to make your own projections and

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Speaker 4: compile your own rankings. So you have to understand how

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Speaker 4: to draft off rankings. And what this means is if

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Speaker 4: you see a player that, for example, I'm very high on,

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Speaker 4: like Jared Goff, and if I have him ranked seventy

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Speaker 4: seventh overall, and you go, hey, Raybond has him ranked

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Speaker 4: seventy seventh.

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna go ahead and take him in the seventh round.

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Speaker 1: That would be wrong because in fact, his ADP is

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Speaker 1: in the tenth round.

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Speaker 4: So you have to remember that, Okay, this is a

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Speaker 4: screaming value that I can still wait on and get

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Speaker 4: a little later. That's how you draft off rankings. You

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Speaker 4: also have to factor in average draft positions. So the

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Speaker 4: best situations are always when your own rankings or somebody

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Speaker 4: else's whoever you're using, are so high or low on,

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Speaker 4: especially high on a player that even if you, let's say,

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Speaker 4: quote unquote reach By, maybe you take him around before

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Speaker 4: his ADP, you're still getting a value because of.

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Speaker 1: That player is such you think that player is such

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Speaker 1: a value. So that's how you use rankings.

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Speaker 4: You should never just use an ordered list and say, well,

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Speaker 4: this ranker has this player ranked, you know, ninetieth, and

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Speaker 4: so when I get to ninetieth and he's still here,

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Speaker 4: I'm taking him, like you know, if he's ranked ninetieth,

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Speaker 4: but his average draft position isn't till the one hundred

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Speaker 4: and fiftieth pick, and you should be waiting until like

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Speaker 4: around the one hundred, you know, thirtieth, one hundred and

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Speaker 4: fortieth pick to actually be taking that player. And if

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Speaker 4: you do that, that's how you start building a team

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Speaker 4: with plus net expected value because you're getting value on

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Speaker 4: all your picks. You're not just drafting off rankings, which

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Speaker 4: is where so many people go wrong, especially since they

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Speaker 4: use like the same rankings like ESPN or whatever it is,

436
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Speaker 4: you know, and they're just drafting off a list. And

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Speaker 4: that's you don't want to draft off the list. You

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Speaker 4: want to use that list to find the value and

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Speaker 4: compare it to ADP and that's how you build a

440
00:20:23,680 --> 00:20:24,440
Speaker 4: good fantasy team.

441
00:20:24,920 --> 00:20:27,119
Speaker 3: Sean, do you have any follow up thoughts on that?

442
00:20:27,160 --> 00:20:28,840
Speaker 3: And I'm also if you're curious, if you have thoughts

443
00:20:28,840 --> 00:20:32,760
Speaker 3: on how you decide how many players at each position

444
00:20:32,840 --> 00:20:35,760
Speaker 3: you are going to draft, like how optimally to construct

445
00:20:35,760 --> 00:20:38,040
Speaker 3: at least in the draft, what you might think of

446
00:20:38,119 --> 00:20:41,600
Speaker 3: as like the ideal percentages in terms of like positions

447
00:20:41,720 --> 00:20:42,480
Speaker 3: for your roster.

448
00:20:42,920 --> 00:20:45,280
Speaker 5: I don't really have a fixed number, but I definitely

449
00:20:45,359 --> 00:20:48,840
Speaker 5: like to have six state running backs and zero kickers

450
00:20:48,920 --> 00:20:51,679
Speaker 5: or defenses. From there, I just kind of go at

451
00:20:51,680 --> 00:20:53,480
Speaker 5: the foot of the draft you know, when it comes

452
00:20:53,520 --> 00:20:57,440
Speaker 5: to comparing rankings versus ADP. Like Raybaugh mentioned, I think

453
00:20:57,480 --> 00:21:00,800
Speaker 5: this is super important and one of the big mistakes

454
00:21:00,880 --> 00:21:04,040
Speaker 5: I see people make when they use my rankings, they

455
00:21:04,080 --> 00:21:06,919
Speaker 5: typically use them to a t, so they're taking guys

456
00:21:06,920 --> 00:21:08,800
Speaker 5: that they can get three or four rounds later.

457
00:21:08,920 --> 00:21:11,080
Speaker 2: And when when you do that, you're actually.

458
00:21:10,840 --> 00:21:13,920
Speaker 5: Killing the value that you That's what makes a great

459
00:21:14,000 --> 00:21:17,040
Speaker 5: value pick is getting him a couple of rounds later

460
00:21:17,200 --> 00:21:19,880
Speaker 5: than he should go. But when you do the opposite,

461
00:21:19,960 --> 00:21:24,000
Speaker 5: you're actually destroying the value. You're you know, not putting

462
00:21:24,000 --> 00:21:27,280
Speaker 5: yourself in a good position. Another thing, though, is ADP

463
00:21:27,440 --> 00:21:30,600
Speaker 5: can get kind of stale, So you know, when people

464
00:21:30,640 --> 00:21:32,800
Speaker 5: are drafting the next couple of weeks and we have

465
00:21:32,840 --> 00:21:34,879
Speaker 5: a lot of movement going on, a lot of injuries

466
00:21:35,359 --> 00:21:37,080
Speaker 5: preseason games, you have.

467
00:21:37,040 --> 00:21:37,840
Speaker 2: To be aware of that.

468
00:21:38,119 --> 00:21:41,000
Speaker 5: A good example of this is back in twenty seventeen

469
00:21:41,600 --> 00:21:45,480
Speaker 5: during the game where Spencer Ware got hurt. You know,

470
00:21:45,520 --> 00:21:49,560
Speaker 5: everybody knew it, and you know, Cream hunts ADPs reflective

471
00:21:49,720 --> 00:21:52,000
Speaker 5: of you know, the last two months of drafting and

472
00:21:52,080 --> 00:21:54,159
Speaker 5: not at that moment, so I kind of had to

473
00:21:54,240 --> 00:21:57,160
Speaker 5: update on the fly where I wanted to draft him

474
00:21:57,440 --> 00:22:00,520
Speaker 5: if you're drafting during some breaking news, you kind of

475
00:22:00,560 --> 00:22:03,280
Speaker 5: throw ADP out the window, and you're gonna want to

476
00:22:03,320 --> 00:22:06,240
Speaker 5: take a little bit earlier than the rankings might say.

477
00:22:06,440 --> 00:22:08,840
Speaker 5: That's just an important point to make is just be

478
00:22:08,960 --> 00:22:11,879
Speaker 5: aware of what guys the ADP might be stale, because

479
00:22:12,480 --> 00:22:15,000
Speaker 5: any recent breaking news, it takes a while for ADP

480
00:22:15,119 --> 00:22:15,720
Speaker 5: to catch up.

481
00:22:16,320 --> 00:22:22,440
Speaker 3: As good as anyone is at drafting, everyone makes some mistakes.

482
00:22:23,040 --> 00:22:25,360
Speaker 3: And even when you don't make mistakes, you still have

483
00:22:25,560 --> 00:22:28,560
Speaker 3: players who bust guys who go against you, just because

484
00:22:28,640 --> 00:22:31,440
Speaker 3: that's what happens. And so I'd be interested in knowing

485
00:22:31,560 --> 00:22:34,120
Speaker 3: how it is that within the draft and then also

486
00:22:34,280 --> 00:22:39,280
Speaker 3: within the season you look to mitigate your downside, knowing

487
00:22:39,680 --> 00:22:43,160
Speaker 3: that at some point in the draft you probably made

488
00:22:43,320 --> 00:22:47,480
Speaker 3: some suboptimal decisions or guys that you counted on didn't

489
00:22:47,560 --> 00:22:48,959
Speaker 3: pan out for whatever reason.

490
00:22:49,600 --> 00:22:51,440
Speaker 4: You just have to be aware of the supply and

491
00:22:51,680 --> 00:22:54,960
Speaker 4: the demand and of the error rate. So again, when

492
00:22:55,000 --> 00:22:59,040
Speaker 4: you're drafting running backs, for example, there's a certain expectation

493
00:22:59,280 --> 00:23:00,200
Speaker 4: of mysed game.

494
00:23:00,400 --> 00:23:02,320
Speaker 1: When you're drafting quarterbacks.

495
00:23:02,320 --> 00:23:04,600
Speaker 4: One of the reasons we wait is because and you

496
00:23:04,720 --> 00:23:06,479
Speaker 4: learn this if you play, if you play DFS, you

497
00:23:06,520 --> 00:23:09,920
Speaker 4: know this quarterbacks are extremely matchup dependent to where sure,

498
00:23:10,000 --> 00:23:11,879
Speaker 4: you have a guy like a Patrick Mahomes crushing in

499
00:23:11,920 --> 00:23:15,959
Speaker 4: every single matchup or Deshaun Watson crushing in nearly every matchup,

500
00:23:16,000 --> 00:23:19,680
Speaker 4: but then you have twenty five other quarterbacks.

501
00:23:19,200 --> 00:23:19,720
Speaker 1: That were not.

502
00:23:20,040 --> 00:23:23,640
Speaker 4: They'll tend to perform well in good matchups. They tend

503
00:23:23,680 --> 00:23:25,760
Speaker 4: to be at home more, they tend to skew towards

504
00:23:26,240 --> 00:23:28,760
Speaker 4: being a favorite more, but not always. The bottom line

505
00:23:28,800 --> 00:23:31,040
Speaker 4: is you're gonna you're going to want to switch guys

506
00:23:31,040 --> 00:23:33,560
Speaker 4: out based on matchup. That's another reason why you don't

507
00:23:33,560 --> 00:23:36,879
Speaker 4: want to draft quarterbacks early is because just because you

508
00:23:36,960 --> 00:23:39,080
Speaker 4: draft a quarterback early, it doesn't even mean that he's

509
00:23:39,119 --> 00:23:41,919
Speaker 4: going to be matchup proof or that he's gonna stay healthy.

510
00:23:41,920 --> 00:23:44,119
Speaker 1: This is football. So that's another thing. You have to

511
00:23:44,119 --> 00:23:45,520
Speaker 1: be aware of the injury chances.

512
00:23:45,560 --> 00:23:48,320
Speaker 4: And I think in general, injuries get a little bit overlooked,

513
00:23:48,400 --> 00:23:51,480
Speaker 4: especially to someone who's a very more casual drafter who

514
00:23:51,520 --> 00:23:54,520
Speaker 4: kind of unplugs from NFL season for seven eight months

515
00:23:54,560 --> 00:23:56,720
Speaker 4: and just kind of comes back when it's time to draft.

516
00:23:56,920 --> 00:23:59,680
Speaker 4: Is that there's all these injuries and players recovering from

517
00:23:59,680 --> 00:24:02,119
Speaker 4: different things, and injuries that are occurring and you kind

518
00:24:02,160 --> 00:24:04,200
Speaker 4: of just you're like, oh, well, as long as he's

519
00:24:04,400 --> 00:24:06,679
Speaker 4: there and he you know, he's on my list, I

520
00:24:06,680 --> 00:24:08,560
Speaker 4: can take him and he'll recover and he'll be fine. Well,

521
00:24:08,600 --> 00:24:10,320
Speaker 4: it's not always like that, and then the players that

522
00:24:10,359 --> 00:24:12,720
Speaker 4: are healthy, you can't count on them to stay healthy.

523
00:24:12,760 --> 00:24:15,280
Speaker 4: Even when you look at something like the correlation of

524
00:24:15,520 --> 00:24:17,840
Speaker 4: games played from one year to the next, there really

525
00:24:17,880 --> 00:24:21,879
Speaker 4: is none. Essentially, you can't predict injuries from one season

526
00:24:21,880 --> 00:24:24,399
Speaker 4: to the next. Some guys do get injured more often,

527
00:24:24,600 --> 00:24:26,119
Speaker 4: but that doesn't mean that you're gonna be able to

528
00:24:26,160 --> 00:24:28,640
Speaker 4: sit here and say, Okay, because this guy didn't get

529
00:24:28,680 --> 00:24:30,960
Speaker 4: injured or did get injured, he is or isn't again,

530
00:24:31,040 --> 00:24:33,919
Speaker 4: and so therefore you have to prepare for that. And

531
00:24:34,000 --> 00:24:36,600
Speaker 4: especially at the running back position and a quarterback, you

532
00:24:36,640 --> 00:24:38,920
Speaker 4: know you're gonna have all these options that it doesn't

533
00:24:38,920 --> 00:24:42,080
Speaker 4: make sense to kind of blow a higher pick on

534
00:24:42,200 --> 00:24:45,439
Speaker 4: a quarterback just because it feels safe, when in fact,

535
00:24:45,680 --> 00:24:47,679
Speaker 4: it's a lot safer to kind of account for the

536
00:24:48,359 --> 00:24:50,439
Speaker 4: your kind of er rate with running backs and to

537
00:24:50,480 --> 00:24:53,520
Speaker 4: an extent, wide receivers at later parts in the draft

538
00:24:53,760 --> 00:24:56,359
Speaker 4: by you know, loading up on those guys because remember,

539
00:24:56,400 --> 00:24:58,440
Speaker 4: you need that you need those touches, and for the

540
00:24:58,520 --> 00:25:01,359
Speaker 4: running backs, you need those targets. For the wide receivers,

541
00:25:01,440 --> 00:25:04,399
Speaker 4: and those guys, they're gonna go down and sometimes you're

542
00:25:04,400 --> 00:25:07,560
Speaker 4: just gonna again hit a bust or something like that.

543
00:25:07,600 --> 00:25:12,480
Speaker 4: So the best way to avoid those risks, It sounds counterintuitive,

544
00:25:12,520 --> 00:25:15,320
Speaker 4: but it's actually to just take more quote unquote risks

545
00:25:15,640 --> 00:25:18,880
Speaker 4: on more running backs and more wide receivers and have

546
00:25:19,080 --> 00:25:22,159
Speaker 4: a deep roster and you're gonna be fine at quarterback

547
00:25:22,560 --> 00:25:24,400
Speaker 4: unless you're in like a two quarterback league, and that's

548
00:25:24,400 --> 00:25:25,400
Speaker 4: a whole different strategy.

549
00:25:26,000 --> 00:25:26,960
Speaker 2: But in a.

550
00:25:27,119 --> 00:25:30,560
Speaker 4: Traditional league, you just the best thing you can do

551
00:25:30,840 --> 00:25:32,600
Speaker 4: to kind of improve your chances to win is just

552
00:25:32,640 --> 00:25:34,560
Speaker 4: wait on a quarterback and build depth.

553
00:25:34,960 --> 00:25:37,400
Speaker 3: Quarner, how is it that you try to mitigate any

554
00:25:37,480 --> 00:25:39,719
Speaker 3: mistakes that you might make during the draft.

555
00:25:40,200 --> 00:25:42,840
Speaker 5: When I draft, I figure I'm going to be making mistakes.

556
00:25:42,840 --> 00:25:45,640
Speaker 5: Whenever I look back at the draft from the previous year,

557
00:25:45,680 --> 00:25:47,639
Speaker 5: I'm like, oh, God, I took that guy in the

558
00:25:47,680 --> 00:25:51,640
Speaker 5: fourth round. You know, things happen, and I think this

559
00:25:51,720 --> 00:25:54,560
Speaker 5: is where, you know, the handcuff strategy for running backs

560
00:25:54,600 --> 00:25:57,320
Speaker 5: really comes into play. If you take David Johnson as

561
00:25:57,320 --> 00:26:00,439
Speaker 5: your fourth or fifth overall pick. The failure seems really

562
00:26:00,480 --> 00:26:02,320
Speaker 5: going to be sort of dependent on his health. So

563
00:26:02,400 --> 00:26:04,160
Speaker 5: going into this year, if you end up getting him,

564
00:26:04,359 --> 00:26:06,600
Speaker 5: you should probably take his backup, Chase Edmonds in the

565
00:26:06,680 --> 00:26:09,280
Speaker 5: later rounds. You know, he'd become an instant RB two

566
00:26:09,359 --> 00:26:11,800
Speaker 5: if David Johnson ever missed any time, and that can

567
00:26:11,840 --> 00:26:14,400
Speaker 5: help mitigate that loss a little bit. So I think

568
00:26:14,440 --> 00:26:18,520
Speaker 5: handcuffing is a pretty good strategy to kind of have

569
00:26:18,760 --> 00:26:22,200
Speaker 5: sort of safety net and situations like that. And also

570
00:26:22,680 --> 00:26:25,439
Speaker 5: when it comes to the quarterback position in general, I

571
00:26:25,480 --> 00:26:29,680
Speaker 5: typically have my starting quarterback be a more safe guy,

572
00:26:29,760 --> 00:26:32,399
Speaker 5: and then my backup I try to just swing for

573
00:26:32,440 --> 00:26:35,800
Speaker 5: the fences and just take a ridiculous upside guy because

574
00:26:35,840 --> 00:26:38,320
Speaker 5: if he doesn't pan out, you can usually drop them

575
00:26:38,400 --> 00:26:41,000
Speaker 5: and pick up some boring guy that can just fill

576
00:26:41,040 --> 00:26:44,000
Speaker 5: in on the waiver wires. So I typically make a

577
00:26:44,040 --> 00:26:48,320
Speaker 5: lot more aggressive swing for the fence's picks later in

578
00:26:48,320 --> 00:26:50,200
Speaker 5: the draft because you really have nothing to lose.

579
00:26:50,640 --> 00:26:54,240
Speaker 3: Let's talk a little bit about research and preparation. Everyone

580
00:26:54,320 --> 00:26:56,520
Speaker 3: is kind of different with their process in terms of

581
00:26:57,080 --> 00:27:00,480
Speaker 3: how they consume content and what they consume. If they

582
00:27:00,520 --> 00:27:02,680
Speaker 3: do mock drafts or if they do a lot of

583
00:27:02,720 --> 00:27:05,560
Speaker 3: best ball leagues to try to prepare for the standard

584
00:27:05,600 --> 00:27:09,000
Speaker 3: redraft leagues they do later, Sean, what is your general

585
00:27:09,119 --> 00:27:11,600
Speaker 3: process for preparing for drafts.

586
00:27:12,160 --> 00:27:16,240
Speaker 5: Mock drafts are super important. It's definitely good to sort

587
00:27:16,280 --> 00:27:21,240
Speaker 5: of practice what we discussed earlier, balancing draft rankings and

588
00:27:21,880 --> 00:27:24,200
Speaker 5: where people go. When you do a mock draft, you

589
00:27:24,200 --> 00:27:27,199
Speaker 5: can kind of see how far guys can fall, and

590
00:27:27,200 --> 00:27:30,280
Speaker 5: then to sort of see where you're kind of liking

591
00:27:30,400 --> 00:27:34,479
Speaker 5: certain positions. You want to try to practice at different

592
00:27:34,480 --> 00:27:37,440
Speaker 5: parts of the draft too, so maybe do a mock

593
00:27:37,520 --> 00:27:39,920
Speaker 5: draft where you have the first pick, and a mock

594
00:27:40,000 --> 00:27:41,920
Speaker 5: draft where you're sort of the middle of the draft,

595
00:27:41,960 --> 00:27:43,760
Speaker 5: and then a mock pick you know, at the end

596
00:27:43,800 --> 00:27:46,080
Speaker 5: of the draft. I think getting sort of the different

597
00:27:46,119 --> 00:27:49,919
Speaker 5: perspective from each draft slot is super important and helps you,

598
00:27:49,920 --> 00:27:53,560
Speaker 5: you know, plan out your attack because your draftic does

599
00:27:53,600 --> 00:27:56,080
Speaker 5: dictate sort of what kind of team you end up with,

600
00:27:56,160 --> 00:27:59,320
Speaker 5: so it's I think it's super important to practice those.

601
00:28:00,000 --> 00:28:03,359
Speaker 3: I think one question might be mock draft versus just

602
00:28:03,560 --> 00:28:07,399
Speaker 3: consulting ADP. Do you think that there actually is a

603
00:28:07,440 --> 00:28:11,439
Speaker 3: lot of practice to going through the process of having

604
00:28:11,480 --> 00:28:14,720
Speaker 3: to select a team versus just consulting ADP and having

605
00:28:14,760 --> 00:28:17,560
Speaker 3: an awareness of the general range in which players are

606
00:28:17,560 --> 00:28:18,240
Speaker 3: being drafted.

607
00:28:18,560 --> 00:28:22,000
Speaker 5: No, I think the practice does make perfect in this case.

608
00:28:22,040 --> 00:28:25,399
Speaker 5: Do you kind of see which situations certain players always

609
00:28:25,440 --> 00:28:27,840
Speaker 5: end up you're having to decide on, So you might

610
00:28:28,160 --> 00:28:30,160
Speaker 5: find kind of a tier where you kind of want

611
00:28:30,160 --> 00:28:32,760
Speaker 5: to dig in a little bit deeper and sort of

612
00:28:32,760 --> 00:28:35,520
Speaker 5: see which guys you rather end up with. Because you

613
00:28:35,560 --> 00:28:37,800
Speaker 5: know a lot of drafts you have a minute and

614
00:28:37,840 --> 00:28:40,000
Speaker 5: thirty seconds to make a pick, so you don't want

615
00:28:40,000 --> 00:28:42,280
Speaker 5: to panic, so you want to stick with your rankings

616
00:28:42,280 --> 00:28:44,480
Speaker 5: as much as possible. But I think, you know, just

617
00:28:44,520 --> 00:28:46,400
Speaker 5: doing a mock draft sort of gets rid of all

618
00:28:46,440 --> 00:28:48,280
Speaker 5: those kinks that you might encounter.

619
00:28:48,320 --> 00:28:51,040
Speaker 2: If you don't practice at all, it could turn a disaster.

620
00:28:51,640 --> 00:28:55,520
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's the mock drafts are really important because, again,

621
00:28:55,680 --> 00:28:59,480
Speaker 4: like what Sean said, it helps you to visualize how

622
00:28:59,480 --> 00:29:01,880
Speaker 4: to actually execute during the draft, which is gonna you're

623
00:29:01,880 --> 00:29:06,040
Speaker 4: gonna be under pressure unless you know absolutely nothing about anything.

624
00:29:06,480 --> 00:29:07,600
Speaker 1: A lot of times I would.

625
00:29:07,400 --> 00:29:09,920
Speaker 4: Suggest you know, even as somebody that you know is

626
00:29:09,920 --> 00:29:12,680
Speaker 4: a producer of fantasy content, I would say, hey, if

627
00:29:12,680 --> 00:29:14,440
Speaker 4: you know a little bit about football, you're but you're

628
00:29:14,480 --> 00:29:16,760
Speaker 4: just like searching out endlessly for content trying to figure

629
00:29:16,800 --> 00:29:19,280
Speaker 4: out who to draft, Like, just do a mock draft

630
00:29:19,320 --> 00:29:21,920
Speaker 4: because it's gonna be so eye opening for you.

631
00:29:21,960 --> 00:29:24,400
Speaker 1: And there's a little shortcut. Well, first of all, I

632
00:29:24,400 --> 00:29:25,360
Speaker 1: should say that when you.

633
00:29:25,320 --> 00:29:27,840
Speaker 4: Do a mock draft, actually finish the draft, because I

634
00:29:27,880 --> 00:29:29,880
Speaker 4: see so many people do mock drafts and they mock

635
00:29:29,960 --> 00:29:31,880
Speaker 4: like the first five rounds and then they leave the

636
00:29:31,880 --> 00:29:34,480
Speaker 4: mock draft like that. Again, like, the drafts are won

637
00:29:34,520 --> 00:29:37,440
Speaker 4: in the middle and the late rounds, and so the

638
00:29:38,000 --> 00:29:40,360
Speaker 4: early rounds are the places where the players are the

639
00:29:40,440 --> 00:29:44,280
Speaker 4: most predictable and they have the highest floors, and a

640
00:29:44,280 --> 00:29:46,719
Speaker 4: lot of times if you make a bad pick there,

641
00:29:46,720 --> 00:29:49,720
Speaker 4: it's not necessarily because you're a bad fantasy drafter as

642
00:29:49,800 --> 00:29:51,920
Speaker 4: much as you just had bad luck and you know

643
00:29:51,920 --> 00:29:54,080
Speaker 4: somebody got hurt or whatever not. But the draft is

644
00:29:54,120 --> 00:29:55,520
Speaker 4: won in those middle to the late rounds, and so

645
00:29:55,600 --> 00:29:57,680
Speaker 4: a short cut I have for people, even if you

646
00:29:57,680 --> 00:30:00,120
Speaker 4: don't want a mock draft, what I would suggest is

647
00:30:00,120 --> 00:30:03,640
Speaker 4: is upside down draft, And what I mean by that is,

648
00:30:03,920 --> 00:30:05,920
Speaker 4: get get a with the ADP. Make sure it's up

649
00:30:05,920 --> 00:30:07,960
Speaker 4: to date. That was a really important point that Sean made.

650
00:30:08,000 --> 00:30:10,280
Speaker 4: Make sure it's up to date. But in general, it

651
00:30:10,400 --> 00:30:12,040
Speaker 4: just you need to have a sense of where players

652
00:30:12,080 --> 00:30:13,440
Speaker 4: are going and then look.

653
00:30:13,240 --> 00:30:14,880
Speaker 1: And start from the bottom, not the top.

654
00:30:15,160 --> 00:30:19,600
Speaker 4: Start to look at what players are values starting from

655
00:30:19,640 --> 00:30:22,760
Speaker 4: the bottom. So, for example, the old adage of wait

656
00:30:22,840 --> 00:30:24,920
Speaker 4: till the last two rounds to draft kicker in defense,

657
00:30:24,960 --> 00:30:27,200
Speaker 4: which sean just you know, made even better by just

658
00:30:27,240 --> 00:30:28,120
Speaker 4: don't even draft them.

659
00:30:28,200 --> 00:30:29,360
Speaker 1: You know why did you do that.

660
00:30:29,440 --> 00:30:32,040
Speaker 4: It's because there's always going to be a surplus of

661
00:30:32,080 --> 00:30:34,640
Speaker 4: those guys available at the end, right, So you have

662
00:30:34,720 --> 00:30:37,080
Speaker 4: to do that same thing for the rest of the

663
00:30:37,120 --> 00:30:39,480
Speaker 4: rounds of your draft. So let's say you start and

664
00:30:39,520 --> 00:30:42,560
Speaker 4: you're starting in the fourteenth round, and you're looking at

665
00:30:42,560 --> 00:30:44,760
Speaker 4: who's going to be available in a PPR draft. So

666
00:30:44,800 --> 00:30:47,400
Speaker 4: now you say, okay, I can bank on being able

667
00:30:47,400 --> 00:30:49,440
Speaker 4: to get a wide receiver in this fourteenth round, some

668
00:30:49,480 --> 00:30:52,040
Speaker 4: good value here. Now I'll go to the thirteenth round

669
00:30:52,080 --> 00:30:54,280
Speaker 4: and you kind of repeat that process all the way

670
00:30:54,400 --> 00:30:56,120
Speaker 4: up to the top of the draft, and that will

671
00:30:56,120 --> 00:30:58,480
Speaker 4: give you a lot clearer picture of what to expect.

672
00:30:58,640 --> 00:31:01,160
Speaker 4: You won't be caught as off gone when you're just

673
00:31:01,640 --> 00:31:03,760
Speaker 4: drafting for the first time, because you have a really

674
00:31:03,800 --> 00:31:07,320
Speaker 4: good idea of how to make your early picks because

675
00:31:07,360 --> 00:31:09,600
Speaker 4: you know how the draft will unfold in a sense.

676
00:31:09,720 --> 00:31:12,160
Speaker 4: And I think that's really important, and it's a reason

677
00:31:12,240 --> 00:31:15,000
Speaker 4: why Sean myself, you Freeman, we all kind of tell

678
00:31:15,040 --> 00:31:17,080
Speaker 4: people not to go into the draft with too rigid

679
00:31:17,080 --> 00:31:21,120
Speaker 4: of a strategy because all these kind of trendy strategies

680
00:31:21,440 --> 00:31:25,040
Speaker 4: are top down strategies that you're kind of focused on

681
00:31:25,080 --> 00:31:27,680
Speaker 4: what to do early in the draft. It's really not

682
00:31:27,800 --> 00:31:29,520
Speaker 4: looking at what you're going to do later in the draft.

683
00:31:29,520 --> 00:31:31,600
Speaker 4: And that's why I always love the late round quarterback

684
00:31:31,640 --> 00:31:36,400
Speaker 4: because it's so sound in that it's thinking about what's

685
00:31:36,440 --> 00:31:38,560
Speaker 4: going to happen at the end of the draft. A

686
00:31:38,600 --> 00:31:41,120
Speaker 4: lot of these other other strategies are so reactionary in

687
00:31:41,120 --> 00:31:42,040
Speaker 4: the sense that they're just.

688
00:31:41,960 --> 00:31:43,600
Speaker 1: Like, oh, well, this is what's going on to the

689
00:31:43,640 --> 00:31:45,239
Speaker 1: top of the draft, and this is how I have

690
00:31:45,240 --> 00:31:46,640
Speaker 1: to react. And then when you start to get to

691
00:31:46,640 --> 00:31:47,080
Speaker 1: the middle and.

692
00:31:47,360 --> 00:31:50,680
Speaker 4: Rounds, which is where drafts are really wanted and lost,

693
00:31:50,920 --> 00:31:52,640
Speaker 4: you have no idea what you're doing. So I'd say

694
00:31:52,680 --> 00:31:54,719
Speaker 4: take an ADP list, even if you don't mock, and

695
00:31:54,960 --> 00:31:57,719
Speaker 4: just take an ADP list, start from the bottom, go up,

696
00:31:57,760 --> 00:32:00,560
Speaker 4: and just look at the value that's there. Each round

697
00:32:00,600 --> 00:32:02,680
Speaker 4: and what you think you would do on each round

698
00:32:02,680 --> 00:32:04,320
Speaker 4: of the draft. Start from the bottom and going the

699
00:32:04,320 --> 00:32:07,560
Speaker 4: way up, and I guarantee you will improve your real draft.

700
00:32:07,880 --> 00:32:10,720
Speaker 3: Totally agree with what you said there. It is ironic

701
00:32:10,800 --> 00:32:14,120
Speaker 3: that the draft obviously starts at the beginning of the draft,

702
00:32:14,160 --> 00:32:17,680
Speaker 3: like the top rounds, but the bottom rounds kind of

703
00:32:17,760 --> 00:32:19,960
Speaker 3: mentally or I think, where you want to begin the

704
00:32:20,000 --> 00:32:23,160
Speaker 3: preparation for your draft. And one thing that makes I

705
00:32:23,160 --> 00:32:26,920
Speaker 3: think late round quarterback very strong is that it's not

706
00:32:27,280 --> 00:32:30,960
Speaker 3: just that you can find a quarterback late in the draft,

707
00:32:31,240 --> 00:32:34,480
Speaker 3: is that you can find multiple quarterbacks late in the draft,

708
00:32:34,720 --> 00:32:37,920
Speaker 3: so that if one is gone, it kind of doesn't matter.

709
00:32:38,160 --> 00:32:39,920
Speaker 3: Maybe that's the one you would have wanted, but there

710
00:32:39,920 --> 00:32:43,280
Speaker 3: are still other guys there. You have multiple outs, And

711
00:32:43,320 --> 00:32:46,120
Speaker 3: so I think if you're building your strategy from the

712
00:32:46,120 --> 00:32:50,720
Speaker 3: bottom up, you want to identify a range, like several

713
00:32:50,800 --> 00:32:53,600
Speaker 3: options that you could get in that round where you

714
00:32:53,600 --> 00:32:55,840
Speaker 3: would be satisfied, because one of the things that does

715
00:32:55,920 --> 00:32:58,640
Speaker 3: happen sometimes is if you get your heart set on

716
00:32:58,720 --> 00:33:02,000
Speaker 3: a particular guy in a round, someone could snipe him

717
00:33:02,160 --> 00:33:04,720
Speaker 3: around or two early. So when you're building from the

718
00:33:04,760 --> 00:33:08,080
Speaker 3: bottom up, you want to give yourself multiple guys. You know,

719
00:33:08,160 --> 00:33:10,440
Speaker 3: three or four wide receivers that you would be fine

720
00:33:10,520 --> 00:33:12,840
Speaker 3: taking in the fourteenth round. So I think you want

721
00:33:12,880 --> 00:33:16,560
Speaker 3: to give yourself contingencies for all of those bottom rounds,

722
00:33:16,800 --> 00:33:20,320
Speaker 3: where regardless of what happens up top in the first

723
00:33:20,320 --> 00:33:22,520
Speaker 3: half of the draft, you know that in the second

724
00:33:22,520 --> 00:33:25,680
Speaker 3: half of the draft, you still have multiple guys that

725
00:33:25,720 --> 00:33:28,719
Speaker 3: you can take, and you still would have executed your

726
00:33:28,760 --> 00:33:31,880
Speaker 3: strategy in a way that gives you a really good

727
00:33:31,960 --> 00:33:36,120
Speaker 3: chance to enter your season with a strong roster. Let's

728
00:33:36,120 --> 00:33:39,920
Speaker 3: talk a little bit about game scripts, right, So, once

729
00:33:40,000 --> 00:33:43,080
Speaker 3: the season has started week to week, one of the

730
00:33:43,160 --> 00:33:45,200
Speaker 3: main ways in which you want to think about who

731
00:33:45,240 --> 00:33:48,000
Speaker 3: it is that you're starting on your roster is by

732
00:33:48,240 --> 00:33:52,600
Speaker 3: anticipating how the game might play out, by looking at

733
00:33:52,640 --> 00:33:54,920
Speaker 3: who is favored, by looking at some of the matchups,

734
00:33:54,960 --> 00:33:57,320
Speaker 3: and thinking about what that meant, what that might mean

735
00:33:57,760 --> 00:34:00,760
Speaker 3: for the running game, in the passing game, for the

736
00:34:00,800 --> 00:34:03,680
Speaker 3: different teams. So let's talk a little bit about game

737
00:34:03,680 --> 00:34:07,360
Speaker 3: scripts and Raybon. Let's start with you. What are your

738
00:34:07,400 --> 00:34:10,120
Speaker 3: thoughts on them? How do you kind of evaluate them

739
00:34:10,400 --> 00:34:13,080
Speaker 3: for the purposes of thinking about who you're starting or

740
00:34:13,120 --> 00:34:15,319
Speaker 3: who you're sitting or in DFS, who it is that

741
00:34:15,400 --> 00:34:17,920
Speaker 3: you might be rostering and investing in.

742
00:34:18,680 --> 00:34:21,799
Speaker 4: Yeah, game scripts, they essentially just refer to you know

743
00:34:21,840 --> 00:34:25,880
Speaker 4: what a team's run pass ratio will be depending on

744
00:34:25,880 --> 00:34:29,280
Speaker 4: the situation in the game. And so this is crucial

745
00:34:30,719 --> 00:34:35,439
Speaker 4: most often for running backs, particularly in standard leagues, when

746
00:34:35,480 --> 00:34:38,200
Speaker 4: you have running backs that they don't necessarily catch a

747
00:34:38,239 --> 00:34:41,680
Speaker 4: lot of passes. So if the game script goes negative,

748
00:34:41,719 --> 00:34:44,799
Speaker 4: which means their team gets down, many times you will

749
00:34:44,800 --> 00:34:47,280
Speaker 4: see them either come off the field or.

750
00:34:47,239 --> 00:34:49,120
Speaker 1: Just not be as productive.

751
00:34:49,239 --> 00:34:50,920
Speaker 4: And so you always want to think about that when

752
00:34:50,960 --> 00:34:54,120
Speaker 4: you're choosing who to start, especially at the running back position.

753
00:34:54,719 --> 00:34:57,680
Speaker 4: So the way you do this is you can look

754
00:34:57,760 --> 00:35:01,160
Speaker 4: at the Vegas lines. That's the key indicator. A team

755
00:35:01,200 --> 00:35:04,240
Speaker 4: that is a favorite will tend to have more positive

756
00:35:04,280 --> 00:35:06,960
Speaker 4: game script than not. But you also have to keep

757
00:35:07,000 --> 00:35:10,080
Speaker 4: in mind too that there is ever rates within that too.

758
00:35:10,239 --> 00:35:12,480
Speaker 4: So a lot of times people make the mistake in

759
00:35:12,560 --> 00:35:16,120
Speaker 4: DFS is going, yo, Okay, this guy's on a favorite,

760
00:35:16,440 --> 00:35:18,359
Speaker 4: he's gonna have good game script. I'm gonna play him.

761
00:35:18,719 --> 00:35:21,600
Speaker 4: But guess what, you have to also know how often

762
00:35:21,960 --> 00:35:24,000
Speaker 4: Vegas is wrong, and a lot of times that can

763
00:35:24,040 --> 00:35:25,640
Speaker 4: help you make a contrarian play, and it can be

764
00:35:25,640 --> 00:35:28,520
Speaker 4: the same thing in your season long roster. You really

765
00:35:28,560 --> 00:35:30,400
Speaker 4: do want to give some thought to who to start

766
00:35:30,440 --> 00:35:33,640
Speaker 4: each week. I don't like the whole just start your

767
00:35:33,640 --> 00:35:36,000
Speaker 4: studs or start the guys you drafted early in the draft.

768
00:35:36,200 --> 00:35:39,280
Speaker 4: It's so matchup dependent, and it's not just gamescript. Gamescript

769
00:35:39,440 --> 00:35:41,640
Speaker 4: is just kind of the overarching thing, but in general,

770
00:35:42,000 --> 00:35:44,320
Speaker 4: fantasy is extremely matchup dependent.

771
00:35:44,640 --> 00:35:46,160
Speaker 1: And if you can just have.

772
00:35:46,200 --> 00:35:48,480
Speaker 4: A little bit of an edge and think about that

773
00:35:48,480 --> 00:35:50,160
Speaker 4: for a couple of minutes when you set your lineup

774
00:35:50,160 --> 00:35:52,640
Speaker 4: each week, versus just started plugging in the guys you

775
00:35:52,719 --> 00:35:55,160
Speaker 4: drafted first, or plugging in you know whoever your quote

776
00:35:55,200 --> 00:35:57,759
Speaker 4: unquote studs might be, you're gonna give yourself an edge

777
00:35:57,760 --> 00:36:01,880
Speaker 4: because almost every player in the league is matchup dependent,

778
00:36:01,960 --> 00:36:03,759
Speaker 4: except for like the guys that are going to go

779
00:36:03,800 --> 00:36:06,080
Speaker 4: in the first round and maybe some of the second round,

780
00:36:06,160 --> 00:36:07,279
Speaker 4: or that's really it.

781
00:36:07,400 --> 00:36:09,080
Speaker 1: Everyone else. It really depends.

782
00:36:09,120 --> 00:36:12,240
Speaker 4: If you look at splits between home, road, favorite, underdog,

783
00:36:12,280 --> 00:36:16,200
Speaker 4: all these things, there's a huge skew towards being at home,

784
00:36:16,280 --> 00:36:18,880
Speaker 4: and being a favorite is even better. With passing, it

785
00:36:18,920 --> 00:36:21,600
Speaker 4: doesn't matter quite as much the game script per se,

786
00:36:21,680 --> 00:36:25,000
Speaker 4: because you pass to win, to get it lead, you

787
00:36:25,480 --> 00:36:27,319
Speaker 4: should be trying to teams trying to pass to get

788
00:36:27,320 --> 00:36:29,800
Speaker 4: a lead. They tend to pass to get leads. Passing

789
00:36:29,840 --> 00:36:31,400
Speaker 4: is more common in the NFL, and then if a

790
00:36:31,440 --> 00:36:33,560
Speaker 4: team gets behind, they'll still be passing.

791
00:36:33,640 --> 00:36:35,240
Speaker 1: So I don't think you need.

792
00:36:35,120 --> 00:36:38,080
Speaker 4: To say make the mistake of saying, hey, oh, this

793
00:36:38,160 --> 00:36:40,320
Speaker 4: team is a big favorite. I don't want to target

794
00:36:40,320 --> 00:36:43,520
Speaker 4: their passing game because they're going to get a lead. Well, hey,

795
00:36:43,680 --> 00:36:45,400
Speaker 4: if they're getting a big enough lead to where they

796
00:36:45,400 --> 00:36:48,200
Speaker 4: can sit on the ball, they probably got it through passing.

797
00:36:48,239 --> 00:36:49,000
Speaker 1: So that's fine.

798
00:36:49,000 --> 00:36:50,880
Speaker 4: But it's the running backs you really if you have,

799
00:36:50,960 --> 00:36:53,399
Speaker 4: And that's another reason to get robust on the running backs.

800
00:36:53,440 --> 00:36:55,680
Speaker 4: Get those six to eight running backs that Sean mentioned

801
00:36:55,719 --> 00:36:58,160
Speaker 4: is that you want to have choices each week. And

802
00:36:58,200 --> 00:37:00,320
Speaker 4: another thing I want to mention too is kind of

803
00:37:00,360 --> 00:37:04,400
Speaker 4: a myths that some of these receiving backs, particularly third downbacks,

804
00:37:04,760 --> 00:37:07,839
Speaker 4: only do well when there's negative game script. That's that's

805
00:37:07,920 --> 00:37:11,279
Speaker 4: not true because a third down back, the concept of

806
00:37:11,320 --> 00:37:15,520
Speaker 4: a third down back is actually very inefficient in practice.

807
00:37:15,640 --> 00:37:18,799
Speaker 4: If you look at the numbers when NFL teams throw

808
00:37:18,920 --> 00:37:22,800
Speaker 4: to running backs on third downs, those tend to result

809
00:37:23,000 --> 00:37:26,480
Speaker 4: in non conversions which lead to punts or you know,

810
00:37:26,560 --> 00:37:28,879
Speaker 4: field goal attempts or whatever. More often than not, then

811
00:37:29,040 --> 00:37:32,080
Speaker 4: you know, throwing to a tight end or a wide receiver.

812
00:37:32,200 --> 00:37:34,759
Speaker 4: So if you're banking on a player, oh he's a

813
00:37:34,760 --> 00:37:37,000
Speaker 4: third down back, this team is expected to be down,

814
00:37:37,480 --> 00:37:39,920
Speaker 4: that's not actually optimal because if every time he's catching

815
00:37:39,960 --> 00:37:42,320
Speaker 4: a pass on third down, he's not likely to actually

816
00:37:42,320 --> 00:37:44,319
Speaker 4: be picking up the first down. So you're getting a

817
00:37:44,360 --> 00:37:46,920
Speaker 4: couple of points for that, but you're not getting any

818
00:37:46,960 --> 00:37:50,200
Speaker 4: closer to getting that touchdown because the team is punting.

819
00:37:50,360 --> 00:37:52,040
Speaker 4: And a lot of times what happens is when the

820
00:37:52,040 --> 00:37:54,520
Speaker 4: team is the negative game script, everyone's bad. You know,

821
00:37:54,920 --> 00:37:57,640
Speaker 4: when you get in a really poor situation, A lot

822
00:37:57,640 --> 00:37:59,560
Speaker 4: of times just the whole team underperforms. They don't get

823
00:37:59,640 --> 00:38:01,680
Speaker 4: near their red zone, there's not many touchdown scores.

824
00:38:01,840 --> 00:38:02,640
Speaker 1: That's not optimal.

825
00:38:02,719 --> 00:38:04,760
Speaker 4: So you want a team that can kind of continue

826
00:38:04,760 --> 00:38:06,959
Speaker 4: to keep the foot on their gas, and that tends

827
00:38:07,000 --> 00:38:09,640
Speaker 4: to happen more when there's positive game script than negative.

828
00:38:09,840 --> 00:38:13,279
Speaker 3: So I agree almost entirely with what Raybond said, with

829
00:38:13,360 --> 00:38:17,000
Speaker 3: one small amendment for things like home and road and

830
00:38:17,280 --> 00:38:22,960
Speaker 3: vegas numbers, those are much more important than the individual matchups,

831
00:38:23,320 --> 00:38:26,319
Speaker 3: except for maybe in the extreme, like I think for basketball,

832
00:38:26,600 --> 00:38:30,279
Speaker 3: who you're playing against is actually really important, and for

833
00:38:30,360 --> 00:38:33,239
Speaker 3: something like baseball, who is pitching against you as a

834
00:38:33,280 --> 00:38:38,160
Speaker 3: batter is really important. But for football, ironically, coaches maybe

835
00:38:38,200 --> 00:38:42,400
Speaker 3: aren't as good at exploiting the weaknesses of opposing defenses

836
00:38:42,520 --> 00:38:45,319
Speaker 3: as they should be unless the team is playing a

837
00:38:45,400 --> 00:38:49,000
Speaker 3: defensive unit like that in the extreme is really like

838
00:38:49,320 --> 00:38:52,759
Speaker 3: very good or very bad. It doesn't impact so much

839
00:38:52,800 --> 00:38:57,560
Speaker 3: like the efficiency or maybe the touches or the opportunities

840
00:38:57,600 --> 00:38:59,920
Speaker 3: you could project for the players. There tends to be

841
00:39:00,160 --> 00:39:03,400
Speaker 3: a pretty wide kind of median there, so what would matter,

842
00:39:03,640 --> 00:39:06,560
Speaker 3: not necessarily is who they are playing. I guess it

843
00:39:06,600 --> 00:39:09,240
Speaker 3: matters to the extent that it impacts the Vegas lines

844
00:39:09,320 --> 00:39:11,839
Speaker 3: and things like that, but it doesn't matter so much

845
00:39:11,880 --> 00:39:15,160
Speaker 3: for some of the other things that people might project.

846
00:39:15,440 --> 00:39:18,319
Speaker 3: But we have on here the projection Master, so I'd

847
00:39:18,360 --> 00:39:20,359
Speaker 3: like to get Sean's thoughts on that.

848
00:39:20,800 --> 00:39:24,000
Speaker 5: Yeah, So, I mean it's a case by case basis

849
00:39:24,040 --> 00:39:26,920
Speaker 5: and it really depends on the team matchup. But you

850
00:39:27,000 --> 00:39:29,960
Speaker 5: mentioned it like home away splits, an example of the

851
00:39:30,280 --> 00:39:34,080
Speaker 5: Big Ben typically has done way worse on the road,

852
00:39:34,120 --> 00:39:37,080
Speaker 5: and it is just a beast at home, so I

853
00:39:37,160 --> 00:39:39,840
Speaker 5: definitely factor that in more than people think. There are

854
00:39:39,880 --> 00:39:43,560
Speaker 5: certain coaches like Bill Belichick, you know, the Patriots definitely

855
00:39:43,680 --> 00:39:47,080
Speaker 5: are good at exploiting the defense that they're playing's weaknesses,

856
00:39:47,160 --> 00:39:49,799
Speaker 5: so that's highly ef factoring as well. But you're right,

857
00:39:49,920 --> 00:39:55,520
Speaker 5: I think sometimes people overestimate individual matchups, but there's no

858
00:39:55,680 --> 00:39:58,520
Speaker 5: blanket assumption that you can make across it all. It's

859
00:39:58,560 --> 00:40:01,680
Speaker 5: just there's so many facts that go into it that

860
00:40:01,760 --> 00:40:05,120
Speaker 5: I'm incorporating in my projections and rankings that it sort

861
00:40:05,120 --> 00:40:08,520
Speaker 5: of all matters. It depends on the strength of the defense.

862
00:40:08,640 --> 00:40:11,360
Speaker 5: But you know, that's sort of what I'm factoring in

863
00:40:11,360 --> 00:40:12,880
Speaker 5: in everyone's projection anyway.

864
00:40:13,200 --> 00:40:16,719
Speaker 4: Home road splits especially so very overlooked a lot of

865
00:40:16,719 --> 00:40:18,799
Speaker 4: the time, and some people kind of argue that, hey,

866
00:40:19,080 --> 00:40:22,720
Speaker 4: they're all noise, you know, it's not really predictive or something,

867
00:40:22,760 --> 00:40:26,040
Speaker 4: but I've personally found that it is. And the NFL,

868
00:40:26,120 --> 00:40:28,920
Speaker 4: the one, you know, the one blind spot if you may,

869
00:40:29,000 --> 00:40:31,120
Speaker 4: that we have a little bit is the offensive line.

870
00:40:31,120 --> 00:40:33,359
Speaker 4: No pun intended in the sense that there aren't as

871
00:40:33,360 --> 00:40:36,680
Speaker 4: many metrics or you know, just the average viewer of

872
00:40:36,680 --> 00:40:40,280
Speaker 4: an NFL game, it cannot really analyze the offensive line

873
00:40:40,440 --> 00:40:41,360
Speaker 4: as well as they can.

874
00:40:41,280 --> 00:40:42,640
Speaker 1: Look at a quarterback or running back.

875
00:40:42,640 --> 00:40:46,000
Speaker 4: And when an offensive line travels and these big guys

876
00:40:46,040 --> 00:40:48,319
Speaker 4: go on the road, they tend to kind of have

877
00:40:48,360 --> 00:40:50,680
Speaker 4: a rough week in terms of they're sitting on a plane,

878
00:40:50,760 --> 00:40:53,120
Speaker 4: they're they're kind of cooped up in hotels, they're they're

879
00:40:53,160 --> 00:40:54,719
Speaker 4: out of their element a little bit, and it just

880
00:40:55,000 --> 00:40:57,200
Speaker 4: it has like these like tiny little effects that tend

881
00:40:57,239 --> 00:40:58,920
Speaker 4: to show themselves on the field. And if you just

882
00:40:58,960 --> 00:41:02,799
Speaker 4: look at large sample NFL numbers, teams don't run as

883
00:41:02,840 --> 00:41:05,239
Speaker 4: well on the road, and they don't they don't pass

884
00:41:05,280 --> 00:41:07,759
Speaker 4: protectives officially on the road. So road games are tough

885
00:41:07,800 --> 00:41:10,520
Speaker 4: for every NFL team. I don't care you know who

886
00:41:10,600 --> 00:41:12,960
Speaker 4: you are, Like you could be going a face you know,

887
00:41:13,000 --> 00:41:15,440
Speaker 4: even the Browns, Like, you know, don't take that for

888
00:41:15,560 --> 00:41:17,400
Speaker 4: granted that your team is going to crush them on

889
00:41:17,400 --> 00:41:18,000
Speaker 4: the road.

890
00:41:17,960 --> 00:41:18,960
Speaker 1: Or okay, maybe the Browns.

891
00:41:18,960 --> 00:41:21,080
Speaker 4: But like the other thirty one NFL teams, it's a

892
00:41:21,080 --> 00:41:22,120
Speaker 4: really tough matchup.

893
00:41:22,360 --> 00:41:24,280
Speaker 3: Final question here, I think it's been a great show

894
00:41:24,440 --> 00:41:27,160
Speaker 3: during the season. There are two ways really in which

895
00:41:27,200 --> 00:41:30,600
Speaker 3: you add players to your team, either waiver wire or

896
00:41:30,640 --> 00:41:35,799
Speaker 3: through trades. So I'm interested in your approaches to both

897
00:41:35,840 --> 00:41:38,759
Speaker 3: of those, especially in a lot of home leagues. Both

898
00:41:38,800 --> 00:41:40,640
Speaker 3: of those are are pretty important.

899
00:41:40,960 --> 00:41:44,120
Speaker 5: From my personal experience, people don't really like to trade

900
00:41:44,120 --> 00:41:47,360
Speaker 5: with me. It sounds fun. I wish I could do it,

901
00:41:47,360 --> 00:41:49,479
Speaker 5: but people just don't trade with me, so I don't

902
00:41:49,480 --> 00:41:52,799
Speaker 5: have as much experience. But trading is a fantastic way

903
00:41:52,840 --> 00:41:55,000
Speaker 5: to sell high and by low. A perfect example from

904
00:41:55,080 --> 00:41:58,000
Speaker 5: last year would have been Deshaun Jackson. If you got

905
00:41:58,080 --> 00:42:00,080
Speaker 5: him last year, you likely you know, draft them in

906
00:42:00,120 --> 00:42:01,840
Speaker 5: the later rounds of year draft. He got up to

907
00:42:01,880 --> 00:42:03,960
Speaker 5: a blistering start. I mean, he was the wide receiver

908
00:42:04,080 --> 00:42:07,239
Speaker 5: two overall after the first four weeks. I'm sure you

909
00:42:07,239 --> 00:42:09,200
Speaker 5: could have sold high and trade him away for some

910
00:42:09,239 --> 00:42:12,680
Speaker 5: guy like Robbie Anderson who's struggling. By week four, you

911
00:42:12,760 --> 00:42:14,759
Speaker 5: might have been able to even get somebody even better

912
00:42:14,800 --> 00:42:17,120
Speaker 5: than Robby Anderson. But you know, from weeks five to

913
00:42:17,160 --> 00:42:19,279
Speaker 5: the end of the season, Deshaun Jackson only ended up

914
00:42:19,280 --> 00:42:22,160
Speaker 5: scoring one more touchdown. He end up getting hurt, missing

915
00:42:22,280 --> 00:42:25,279
Speaker 5: you know, the fantasy playoffs, so he was droppable in

916
00:42:25,440 --> 00:42:29,239
Speaker 5: most leagues. After that Week five, you've been able to

917
00:42:29,280 --> 00:42:31,680
Speaker 5: sell high, but Robby Anderson managed to put up wide

918
00:42:31,680 --> 00:42:34,480
Speaker 5: receiver two to wide receiver three value the rest of

919
00:42:34,520 --> 00:42:36,680
Speaker 5: the season. When he really started to turn it on

920
00:42:36,760 --> 00:42:40,080
Speaker 5: with Sam Darnold happened to be weeks fourteen through sixteen

921
00:42:40,680 --> 00:42:43,360
Speaker 5: where he was actually the wide receiver one overall in fantasy,

922
00:42:43,400 --> 00:42:45,439
Speaker 5: and that was during the Fantasy playoffs. It just goes

923
00:42:45,440 --> 00:42:48,879
Speaker 5: to show it's a great way to siphon value from

924
00:42:48,960 --> 00:42:51,440
Speaker 5: willing people to do that. So you want to exploit

925
00:42:51,520 --> 00:42:54,719
Speaker 5: your league mates, trap him if you will, in you know,

926
00:42:54,760 --> 00:42:57,000
Speaker 5: giving up massive value the rest of the season just

927
00:42:57,040 --> 00:43:00,640
Speaker 5: because of you know, some early season results, and you know,

928
00:43:00,719 --> 00:43:04,880
Speaker 5: the waiver wire is super critical for championship teams. I

929
00:43:04,920 --> 00:43:08,000
Speaker 5: think it really helps build a championship lineup.

930
00:43:08,280 --> 00:43:09,240
Speaker 2: You gotta be alert.

931
00:43:09,760 --> 00:43:12,239
Speaker 5: One of my in season strategies is to stash high

932
00:43:12,320 --> 00:43:15,600
Speaker 5: upside backup running backs in the case you know the starter,

933
00:43:15,719 --> 00:43:19,239
Speaker 5: wherever to go down, they would typically you know, instantly

934
00:43:19,280 --> 00:43:20,960
Speaker 5: become a running back two.

935
00:43:20,880 --> 00:43:22,440
Speaker 2: Or even running back one value.

936
00:43:22,880 --> 00:43:24,720
Speaker 5: I had a couple of teams last year with players

937
00:43:24,719 --> 00:43:28,080
Speaker 5: like Todd Gurley, James Connor, and Melvin Gordon. They certainly

938
00:43:28,080 --> 00:43:30,960
Speaker 5: helped me get to the playoffs, but I never got complacent.

939
00:43:31,000 --> 00:43:34,640
Speaker 5: I still stashed back up running backs guys with high upside,

940
00:43:34,680 --> 00:43:37,359
Speaker 5: so by the time the fantasy playoffs came around, those

941
00:43:37,360 --> 00:43:40,799
Speaker 5: three running backs really weren't available. They weren't playing or

942
00:43:40,840 --> 00:43:43,360
Speaker 5: playing banged up, so I actually ended up relying on

943
00:43:43,400 --> 00:43:46,920
Speaker 5: guys like Damian Williams, Elijah McGuire, and Gus Edwards who

944
00:43:47,000 --> 00:43:49,120
Speaker 5: had picked up on the waiver wire to actually carry

945
00:43:49,120 --> 00:43:52,239
Speaker 5: me to my championship in those final few weeks. It's

946
00:43:52,280 --> 00:43:55,040
Speaker 5: also important to know when you get a guy at

947
00:43:55,080 --> 00:43:57,879
Speaker 5: the waiver wire if you're getting more of a two

948
00:43:57,880 --> 00:44:01,120
Speaker 5: week rental from the guy. If it's a running back

949
00:44:01,160 --> 00:44:03,400
Speaker 5: and the starting running back is out for a couple weeks,

950
00:44:03,520 --> 00:44:05,399
Speaker 5: you're only going to get that value for a couple

951
00:44:05,440 --> 00:44:08,279
Speaker 5: of weeks, as opposed to a guy that's going to

952
00:44:08,320 --> 00:44:09,680
Speaker 5: have rest of season value.

953
00:44:09,920 --> 00:44:11,080
Speaker 2: Those are the guys that I.

954
00:44:11,000 --> 00:44:13,840
Speaker 5: Typically shoot for if I have a number one waiver

955
00:44:14,920 --> 00:44:19,400
Speaker 5: or have a ton of free agent auction bidding dollars available.

956
00:44:19,600 --> 00:44:22,080
Speaker 5: Those are the guys that really target. I mentioned earlier

957
00:44:22,120 --> 00:44:24,920
Speaker 5: how I don't actually draft a kicker or defense of

958
00:44:24,960 --> 00:44:27,400
Speaker 5: the draft. What I do during the season is just

959
00:44:27,440 --> 00:44:31,440
Speaker 5: stream the top available kicker or defense using my weekly productions.

960
00:44:31,480 --> 00:44:34,600
Speaker 5: Each week, you're typically going to get a top five

961
00:44:34,680 --> 00:44:38,440
Speaker 5: kicker defense based on my productions, So most years I'm

962
00:44:38,440 --> 00:44:41,760
Speaker 5: actually able to generate a top five kicker and defense.

963
00:44:41,920 --> 00:44:44,520
Speaker 5: Just by streaming the top available ones each week gives

964
00:44:44,600 --> 00:44:45,759
Speaker 5: you a considerable edge.

965
00:44:45,760 --> 00:44:50,040
Speaker 3: In my opinion, I would strongly advocate for having a

966
00:44:50,239 --> 00:44:53,879
Speaker 3: free agent acquisition budget versus waivers. I think it makes

967
00:44:53,920 --> 00:44:56,319
Speaker 3: it much more equitable. I think it's also much more

968
00:44:56,440 --> 00:45:00,880
Speaker 3: entertaining to see the bidding process and to let that

969
00:45:01,000 --> 00:45:03,600
Speaker 3: unfold versus just knowing, Oh, this guy has the number

970
00:45:03,600 --> 00:45:07,040
Speaker 3: one waiver priority. He's going to get the player that

971
00:45:07,080 --> 00:45:09,840
Speaker 3: everyone wants this week. Ravon, what are your thoughts on

972
00:45:09,880 --> 00:45:11,240
Speaker 3: trades and waiver wires?

973
00:45:11,840 --> 00:45:14,160
Speaker 4: Look at the schedule, get a sense of it for

974
00:45:14,200 --> 00:45:16,840
Speaker 4: the entire league. So you can not only find players

975
00:45:16,880 --> 00:45:20,160
Speaker 4: that you want to kind of sell high on, but

976
00:45:20,280 --> 00:45:22,680
Speaker 4: you also want to find players that may have been

977
00:45:22,800 --> 00:45:26,480
Speaker 4: performing poorly just because of some bad matchups. For example,

978
00:45:26,520 --> 00:45:29,879
Speaker 4: if a wide receiver has a tough slate of cornerbacks

979
00:45:29,880 --> 00:45:31,880
Speaker 4: and you know, all of a sudden, they're sitting here

980
00:45:31,920 --> 00:45:33,960
Speaker 4: and it's Week four or five and they have no

981
00:45:34,200 --> 00:45:36,520
Speaker 4: big games, you know, that's when you want to really

982
00:45:36,880 --> 00:45:39,520
Speaker 4: look at the schedule, so there's an opportunity here to

983
00:45:39,560 --> 00:45:42,000
Speaker 4: buy low, and just in general with the waiver wire

984
00:45:42,040 --> 00:45:44,040
Speaker 4: as well, as Sean mentioned, you know, just you want

985
00:45:44,080 --> 00:45:46,239
Speaker 4: those multi week guys, and you do that by looking

986
00:45:46,280 --> 00:45:48,600
Speaker 4: at the schedule. If you have a running back, you know,

987
00:45:48,600 --> 00:45:50,880
Speaker 4: if you if you see, for example, three of his

988
00:45:51,000 --> 00:45:53,920
Speaker 4: four next matchups are coming at home, that's kind of

989
00:45:54,440 --> 00:45:58,000
Speaker 4: a good situation before you even know, as Friedman mentioned,

990
00:45:58,080 --> 00:46:00,160
Speaker 4: what the teams are that they're playing. Just knowing that

991
00:46:00,200 --> 00:46:02,640
Speaker 4: he's gonna have three of his next four games at

992
00:46:02,640 --> 00:46:04,799
Speaker 4: home is a good situation. And so if you have

993
00:46:04,840 --> 00:46:07,000
Speaker 4: a guy now that may be coming up with a

994
00:46:07,120 --> 00:46:09,440
Speaker 4: tough slate where he has, you know, a bunch of

995
00:46:09,520 --> 00:46:12,360
Speaker 4: road games or tough matches, whatever it may be, you

996
00:46:12,360 --> 00:46:14,080
Speaker 4: could think of unloaded them. So just kind of being

997
00:46:14,080 --> 00:46:16,920
Speaker 4: able to look a few weeks ahead. Sometimes even what

998
00:46:16,960 --> 00:46:18,920
Speaker 4: can help you is if you're doing the whole kicker

999
00:46:18,920 --> 00:46:22,000
Speaker 4: and streaming defenses thing, you can find a kicker a

1000
00:46:22,080 --> 00:46:25,000
Speaker 4: defense that is actually pretty you know, going to be

1001
00:46:25,000 --> 00:46:27,160
Speaker 4: the best for two weeks in a row, or you

1002
00:46:27,200 --> 00:46:29,839
Speaker 4: can find when that's going to be the best next week,

1003
00:46:29,880 --> 00:46:32,319
Speaker 4: and you can get ahead of picking it up, you know,

1004
00:46:32,400 --> 00:46:35,440
Speaker 4: maybe stashing it if you have the space. Just kind

1005
00:46:35,440 --> 00:46:37,920
Speaker 4: of knowing what's upcoming on the schedule is really important.

1006
00:46:38,160 --> 00:46:40,440
Speaker 3: Okay, that will do it For this episode of The

1007
00:46:40,480 --> 00:46:43,120
Speaker 3: Action That We're podcast. You can follow Sean, Chris and

1008
00:46:43,160 --> 00:46:45,680
Speaker 3: Me and the Action Network gap at the Underscore. Odds

1009
00:46:45,680 --> 00:46:48,360
Speaker 3: maker Chris Raymond and Matt f the Oracle used the

1010
00:46:48,400 --> 00:46:50,560
Speaker 3: app to get real time odds and track your bets

1011
00:46:50,560 --> 00:46:53,400
Speaker 3: for free. Please rate, interview the show on Apple Podcasts

1012
00:46:53,480 --> 00:46:55,640
Speaker 3: or wherever you get your podcasts. See you again.

1013
00:46:55,719 --> 00:46:56,360
Speaker 2: Next episode

1014
00:47:00,400 --> 00:47:02,360
Speaker 1: Gets continue