WEBVTT - A Drive Deep into Left Field

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<v Speaker 1>Before we begin, a reminder to please rate and review

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<v Speaker 1>our show. It helps new listeners discover us and grow

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<v Speaker 1>the program. What are the odds of catching a foul

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<v Speaker 1>ball at a game, or being dealt a royal flush

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<v Speaker 1>and poker, or even being struck by lightning? Some things

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<v Speaker 1>are rarer than others, But today we're looking at some

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<v Speaker 1>occurrences that are truly unlikely, and they're all tied to

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<v Speaker 1>one guy, Philadelphia. Philly's outfielder Nick Castillanos isn't exactly having

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<v Speaker 1>his best season, but while his numbers are down, he

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<v Speaker 1>still leads the league in a pretty remarkable category that

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<v Speaker 1>you won't find in any traditional stats. On this episode

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<v Speaker 1>of Sports Illustrated Weekly, s I, senior writer John Wortheim

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<v Speaker 1>tells the tale of how Costaianos became a meme by

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<v Speaker 1>hitting home runs that have been, let's say, oddly and

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<v Speaker 1>hilariously timed, again and again and again. And we should

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<v Speaker 1>note this piece also includes the voice of the late, great,

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<v Speaker 1>legendary Dodgers announcer of In Scully, perhaps the only person

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<v Speaker 1>who was castaganos Pero. May he rest in Baseball broadcast habit,

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<v Speaker 1>I'm your host John Gonzalez from Sports Illustrated and I

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<v Speaker 1>Heart Radio. This is Sports Illustrated Weekly. Here's John Wortheim

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<v Speaker 1>to calculate the long odds on the timing of Costallanos's

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<v Speaker 1>long bombs. Never mind the honey delivery, the wit, or

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<v Speaker 1>the accumulated baseball wisdom. For all his various and sundry

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<v Speaker 1>broadcasting gifts, Vince Scully was blessed above all with exquisite

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<v Speaker 1>timings for all the high five of the goes back

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<v Speaker 1>to the fan. He may have called baseball games all

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<v Speaker 1>those years, but he would have been a wonderful conductor

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<v Speaker 1>or musician, says Al Michael's a Scully protege dating back

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<v Speaker 1>to his Brooklyn boyhood. He just has this intuition for

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<v Speaker 1>the rhythm of the game. A viable woman for baseball.

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<v Speaker 1>What a viral vomit for the country in the world.

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<v Speaker 1>The running joke was at baseball waited for Scully, not

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<v Speaker 1>the other way around. If Ben was in the middle

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<v Speaker 1>of an anecdote and it was a two two count,

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<v Speaker 1>says Ted Robinson, a long time MLB announcer, you could

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<v Speaker 1>be sure the batter would foul off the next pitch,

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<v Speaker 1>just to be sure Vin would get through his story.

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<v Speaker 1>All of which is to say, it's a good bet

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<v Speaker 1>that's Scully never much intersected with Philly's right fielder Nick Castianos.

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<v Speaker 1>By now you likely know the story or stories all

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<v Speaker 1>three of them. On October, Castianos was playing for the

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<v Speaker 1>Reds during an otherwise somnolent summer game devoid of much significance.

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<v Speaker 1>Cincinnati's played by play ban at the time, Tom Brenneman,

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<v Speaker 1>spoke carelessly and cruelly into an open mic during the

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<v Speaker 1>seventh inning of the first game of a double header.

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<v Speaker 1>Brennaman didn't realize the broadcast was back from commercial break,

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<v Speaker 1>and he made an anti lgbt Q slur. By the

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<v Speaker 1>second game, as social media did its thing, it had

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<v Speaker 1>become clear that Brenneman's vile comment was going to be

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<v Speaker 1>a problem. In what was both an apology and a

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<v Speaker 1>clear attempt to salvage his job, Brennaman began the fifth

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<v Speaker 1>inning with a soliloquy, I made a comment earlier tonight

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<v Speaker 1>that I guess UH went out over the year that

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<v Speaker 1>I am deeply ashamed of UM. If I have heard

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<v Speaker 1>anyone out there, I can't tell you how much I

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<v Speaker 1>say from the bottom of my heart I'm so very

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<v Speaker 1>very sorry. I pride myself and think of myself as

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<v Speaker 1>a a man of faith. As he was winding up,

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<v Speaker 1>so was Kansas City reliever Breg Holland, who offered a

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<v Speaker 1>fastball to Castianos, the batter at the time. As Brennaman continued,

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<v Speaker 1>castiano'ss bad collided violently with a pitch, resulting in a

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<v Speaker 1>towering four hundred and ten foot drive. And we got

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<v Speaker 1>this from Brennaman. As there is a drive in a

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<v Speaker 1>deep left field by Costiganos, it will be a home

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<v Speaker 1>run and so that'll make it a for nothing ball game.

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<v Speaker 1>When that awkward interruption was over, and as Castiano's rounded

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<v Speaker 1>the basis, Brennaman went back to doing damage control. I

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<v Speaker 1>don't know if I would be putting on this headset again,

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<v Speaker 1>As ESPNS public Torrey puts it perfectly. Watching Brennaman break

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<v Speaker 1>the fourth wall and then suddenly reconstruct that wall in

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<v Speaker 1>the same breath remains one of the funniest things I've

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<v Speaker 1>ever seen. Brenneman was indeed done in the Red s booth.

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<v Speaker 1>He finished the apology, then turned the broadcast over to

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<v Speaker 1>Jim day mid Gay. The team suspended Brennaman that night,

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<v Speaker 1>and he resigned a little over a month later. He

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<v Speaker 1>now broadcasts high school sports in the Greater Cincinnati area. Castianos,

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<v Speaker 1>on the other hand, was just getting started. The next

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<v Speaker 1>time the Reds visited Kansas City, he struck again George Gorman,

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<v Speaker 1>a World War Two veteran and the father of Royal's

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<v Speaker 1>longtime equipment manager Patrick Gorman, had recently died. Coming out

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<v Speaker 1>of the break at the top of the seventh inning,

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<v Speaker 1>Kansas City announcer Ryan la Fever began a poignant eulogy

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<v Speaker 1>of Gorman. Nick Castiano Snow was batting, and he chose

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<v Speaker 1>that precise moment to go deep with this seventeenth home

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<v Speaker 1>run of the season. Here's the call delivered by La

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<v Speaker 1>Fiver as it coincided with the first pitch. Well, we're

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<v Speaker 1>gonna tell you about a great man, and it's a

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<v Speaker 1>loss for the Royals family. That's a great life. Nineties

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<v Speaker 1>six years and Pat, just like his dad, went to KU,

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<v Speaker 1>he also went to Bishop Ward High School. And there's

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<v Speaker 1>a drive in a deep left center field. And there's

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<v Speaker 1>never a great time to eulogize someone during the broadcast,

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<v Speaker 1>So we apologize for the timing. But by this point,

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<v Speaker 1>a drive into deep left by Castianos had become a

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<v Speaker 1>full fledged me But he wasn't done using his bat

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<v Speaker 1>to interrupt somber moments acquired by the Phillies in the offseason.

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<v Speaker 1>Castianos was in the box on the final Monday in

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<v Speaker 1>May when NBC Sports Philadelphia announcer Tom McCarthy saw fit

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<v Speaker 1>to deliver a Memorial Day tribute the Gold Chair, which

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<v Speaker 1>will sit vacant here at Citizens Bank Park, honoring UH

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<v Speaker 1>those who paid the ultimate sacrifice, and as if choreographed

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<v Speaker 1>Castiano's rips on a deep left field, it is god.

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<v Speaker 1>Three successive seasons, three earnest moments, each broken up by

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<v Speaker 1>a nick Castiano's home run unlikely, comically unlikely, The question

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<v Speaker 1>just how unlikely? To try and grasp the improbability, we

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<v Speaker 1>consulted sports statistician and NFL dor actor of Data and Analytics,

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<v Speaker 1>Michael Lopez. He was kind enough to help us come

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<v Speaker 1>up with an answer and to show his work. The

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<v Speaker 1>first and most basic question, how often does Castianos hit

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<v Speaker 1>the ball over the fence? In twenty one, he had

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<v Speaker 1>combined forty eight home runs and eight twenty seven plate appearances.

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<v Speaker 1>The home run he hit on Memorial Day was his

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<v Speaker 1>seventh home run of the two season. In his two

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<v Speaker 1>hundred plate appearance, that's a home run five point four

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<v Speaker 1>percent of the time he steps into the box. But

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<v Speaker 1>that's too broad. What Lopez rightly calls grief announcements came

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<v Speaker 1>early in the plate appearance, as baseball broadcasters stories usually do.

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<v Speaker 1>Over the last three seasons, through his Memorial Day blast,

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<v Speaker 1>Castianos hit nineteen home runs on the first or second

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<v Speaker 1>pitch of his plate appearance, which is to say that

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<v Speaker 1>there's roughly a two percent chance that in any given

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<v Speaker 1>plate appearance he would hit a home run in one

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<v Speaker 1>of the first two pitches. Extrapolating that the likely hood

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<v Speaker 1>that he would hit a home run in each of

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<v Speaker 1>those three plate appearances, it's about one in a hundred

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<v Speaker 1>and twenty thousand. But the probability really plummets when we

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<v Speaker 1>ask how likely was he to have three plate appearances

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<v Speaker 1>in grief announcement settings. To answer this question, we first

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<v Speaker 1>need some sense of frequency. How often to broadcasters depart

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<v Speaker 1>from the game to offer the sorts of sombers soliloquies

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<v Speaker 1>that Castiano's has an uncanny way of interrupting the sonic

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<v Speaker 1>equivalent to photo bombing. We put this to Ted Robinson,

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<v Speaker 1>a veteran of calling more than MLB games, mostly for

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<v Speaker 1>the Giants and Twins. But how often a broadcaster would

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<v Speaker 1>deliver a somber monologue. His estimate once a month, and

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<v Speaker 1>that's maybe, he says, there's a question of what do

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<v Speaker 1>we want to impose on an audience honoring Memorial Day. Absolutely,

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<v Speaker 1>maybe there's an unfortunate death of someone close to the

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<v Speaker 1>team or an arrest you feel you have to acknowledge,

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<v Speaker 1>but weeks can go by between those that. As a guide,

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<v Speaker 1>a monthly grief announcement would equate to ten such announcements

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<v Speaker 1>over the last three seasons, accounting for the pandemic short

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<v Speaker 1>and twenty campaign. Given that Castianos has played in most

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<v Speaker 1>games over that period, one can assume that in a

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<v Speaker 1>given game with a grief announcement, he'd have a one

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<v Speaker 1>in twenty chance of being a bad after that. Extrapolating

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<v Speaker 1>that to the ten grief announcements, the likelihood of his

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<v Speaker 1>being the bat or after three such announcements is one.

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<v Speaker 1>Combining castianos Is early plate appearance home run rate with

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<v Speaker 1>the odds of Castianos would be batting when the rare

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<v Speaker 1>grief announcement was made. Rate Lopez makes the back of

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<v Speaker 1>the envelope calculation. We'd say there's one in ten million

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<v Speaker 1>chance that Castianos would follow three grief announcements with first

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<v Speaker 1>to pitch home runs. Those are literally powerball odds. Lopez

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<v Speaker 1>points out that the odds improve if we consider the

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<v Speaker 1>probability that any member of the population of Major league

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<v Speaker 1>batters do what Castianos did. The odds also improved when

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<v Speaker 1>we consider that the grief announcement could have been made

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<v Speaker 1>by broadcasters of either team. Then again, the odds become

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<v Speaker 1>longer if we want to refine this and note that

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<v Speaker 1>Castiano's not only hit home runs, but did so to

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<v Speaker 1>left field each time, and though it wasn't a home run.

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<v Speaker 1>Castiano's interrupted a fourth grief announcement. Earlier this season in

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<v Speaker 1>spring training, Blue Jay's announcer Buck Martinez was awkwardly addressing

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<v Speaker 1>the d u I arrest of Toronto pitching coach Pete

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<v Speaker 1>Walker when Castianos laced a single to right field, fittingly

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<v Speaker 1>his first at bat with the Phillies. But little that's

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<v Speaker 1>gonna drop for a basic Castianos reached out of propin

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<v Speaker 1>in the right fair no sport revels and coincidence and

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<v Speaker 1>numerology and statistical cork quite like baseball does. Pictured Joe

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<v Speaker 1>Nicro's only career home run, it came off his brother

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<v Speaker 1>Phil niekro a stand Musual's thirty six hundred and thirty

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<v Speaker 1>hits eighteen fifteen came at home in eighteen fifteen, came

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<v Speaker 1>on the road. Mutual incidentally was born on November twenty one,

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<v Speaker 1>nineteen twenty and Tiny Dinorah, Pennsylvania, population four thousand, five

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<v Speaker 1>d eighty. That's the same unlikely birthplace as Ken Griffy Jr.

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<v Speaker 1>Who was also born there on November twenty one, nineteen

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<v Speaker 1>sixty nine. Castiano's speak, though, set the standard for improbability

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<v Speaker 1>one in ten million for perspective, the odds of being

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<v Speaker 1>struck by lightning in your lifetime. For the National Weather Service,

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<v Speaker 1>it's one in fifteen thousand, three hundred. The odds of

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<v Speaker 1>getting bitten by a shark one in three point seven million.

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<v Speaker 1>The odds of getting struck by a meteorite. The astronomer

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<v Speaker 1>Allen Harris once haded it one in one point nine million.

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<v Speaker 1>The odds of being elected president of the United States

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<v Speaker 1>one in ten million, which is to say the awe

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<v Speaker 1>and amusement we all have for Castianos, who's grief announcement

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<v Speaker 1>triple Crown is well placed with that kind of timing.

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<v Speaker 1>When his baseball career ends, he might have a second

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<v Speaker 1>career as a baseball announcer, the successor to Vince Scully.

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<v Speaker 1>Thanks for listening, and a reminder to please rate and

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<v Speaker 1>review our show. It helps people find us. Sports Illustrated

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<v Speaker 1>Weekly is a production of Sports Illustrated and I Heart Radio.

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<v Speaker 1>For more podcasts from my Heart Radio, visit the I

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<v Speaker 1>Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your

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<v Speaker 1>favorite shows. And for more of Sports Illustrated It's best

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<v Speaker 1>stories and podcasts, visit SI dot com. This episode of

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<v Speaker 1>Sports Illustrated Weekly was produced by Jessica Armoski, Jordan Rizzieri,

0:12:48.360 --> 0:12:51.640
<v Speaker 1>and Isaac Lee, who was also our sound engineer. Our

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<v Speaker 1>senior producer is Dan Bloom. Our acting senior producer is

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<v Speaker 1>Harry Swartout. Our executive producers are Scott Browny and me

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<v Speaker 1>John Gonzales. Our theme song is by Nolan Schneider, and

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<v Speaker 1>if you've stuck around this song, we leave you with this.

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<v Speaker 1>He might have a second career as a baseball announcer,

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<v Speaker 1>a successor to Fid Sculling. That's all I got. I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>you'll you'll cut in the audio there. You don't need

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<v Speaker 1>me saying right like yeah yeah good good h