Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2: A single best idea, the single best idea is to
Speaker 2: understand the jobs report is Thursday, not Friday. This week
Speaker 2: a huge wall of economic data squeezed in to a
Speaker 2: holiday lengthened work week. We start strong with Bob Michael
Speaker 2: out with a midyear update for JP Morgan driving all
Speaker 2: of their full faith and credit work many other duties
Speaker 2: as well. Bob Michael here on the new regime, which
Speaker 2: is the new normal.
Speaker 3: We're heading into an environment that's more normal that existed
Speaker 3: pre Great Financial Crisis, when there is a demand for
Speaker 3: capital because there's a productive use for capital, and there
Speaker 3: will be a cost for that capital and it won't
Speaker 3: be zero. Does that mean the had funds rate belongs
Speaker 3: about where that first dot was that the Fed put
Speaker 3: out in twenty twelve, four and a quarter percent. Maybe
Speaker 3: could be get ready for that, Get ready for markets
Speaker 3: where you could see a surgeon inflation. The Fed may
Speaker 3: have to go to six percent, and they may have
Speaker 3: to apply a little stimulus and go down to three percent.
Speaker 3: I think that's the market we're headed for, and I
Speaker 3: think that's an exciting market.
Speaker 2: About Michael there with JP Morgan just really interesting conversations
Speaker 2: about the mid year review and of course the uncertainties
Speaker 2: and the many uncertainties hard to quantify that are out there.
Speaker 2: It was a joy to talk to bred Bechtel. He
Speaker 2: is with Jeffries and very different in foreign exchange strategy,
Speaker 2: with a huge trading in the sales part of it,
Speaker 2: the mechanism, the process part of buying and selling various
Speaker 2: and sundry foreign exchange. I asked bred Bechtel the da
Speaker 2: here of what's the rookie mistake in foreign exchange trading.
Speaker 4: The biggest mistake people make is they get convict they
Speaker 4: get convinced on a trade, they jump all in, and
Speaker 4: you have to be very careful. This is a saw
Speaker 4: tooth market. This is not a market that's on a
Speaker 4: forty five degree line. This is a market that likes
Speaker 4: to wash people out from time to time. So the
Speaker 4: moment you get convinced on the trade like I am
Speaker 4: now with the short dollar strategy, you have to remain
Speaker 4: nimble and you have to remain hedged and ready to
Speaker 4: kind of reduce risk into the extreme move. So when
Speaker 4: the positioning gets extreme, that's when you should be lightening up.
Speaker 4: Look the reload on the snapback.
Speaker 2: Red Bechdel with Jeffries. I can't say enough. We do equities, bonds, currencies, commodities.
Speaker 2: There's an entire US heritage back well over one hundred
Speaker 2: years of ignoring the dollar. We are the dollar. We
Speaker 2: don't have to care about foreign exchange because we are
Speaker 2: the dollar. Well, guess what, it's the modern ear where
Speaker 2: all of these relationships matter as well. Please stay with
Speaker 2: us again with the jobs report on Thursday, a uh
Speaker 2: pon podcasts at Apple podcasts and Spotify too, and on
Speaker 2: YouTube podcasts. That's a single best idea