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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three

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Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network.

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Speaker 1: I am Chad Mollman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.

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Speaker 1: We are live from our Tommy John Home Studios. Great

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Speaker 1: Days start with Great Under, where I'm joined as always

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Speaker 1: by my cost, my companion, my compadre, my bff, professional

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Speaker 1: better Simon Hunter. Hello, so I'm in. Are you ready

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Speaker 1: to unleash a fury of joy, optimism, good tidings, courage

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Speaker 1: onto our listeners and watchers in Week three?

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Speaker 2: Hi'm Chad, and even a little life lesson for you

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Speaker 2: who cares about the outside noise.

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Speaker 3: Buddy's just me and you, right.

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Speaker 1: It's me. You know what you are? Mi campadre. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: you're my bff. This is about us. It's like we're

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Speaker 1: married and we need to we need to not listen

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Speaker 1: to what's happening outside of our house. Let's focus on

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Speaker 1: our best practices. Let's fucking go. You and I have

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Speaker 1: already spoken a couple of times since Sunday. I've spent

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Speaker 1: a lot of time thinking about our difficult weekend, and

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Speaker 1: I realized that, like, overall, my life is pretty great,

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Speaker 1: and it must be great if like, the thing keeping

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Speaker 1: me up on Sunday night is how badly we did

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Speaker 1: with our five picks, and on Monday night it's, oh

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Speaker 1: my god, I can't believe I wasn't aggressive with the falcons.

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Speaker 1: There is usually a grieving process for me after we

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Speaker 1: have a bad weekend. We do this kind of work publicly.

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Speaker 1: We know that people are listening, watching, making decisions that

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Speaker 1: potentially separates them from their money based on what we say.

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Speaker 1: When we don't do well, am miserable, miserable and like,

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Speaker 1: I cannot have a conversation with people in my house.

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Speaker 1: And here we are, it's Tuesday morning. In a moment,

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Speaker 1: we're going to recap the results of week two in

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Speaker 1: our contest. We're going to announce the winner of our

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Speaker 1: one thousand dollars weekly cash prize. If you haven't yet

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Speaker 1: sign up for the free free Free Favorites Podcast one

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Speaker 1: hundred thousand dollars Pro Football Pickup contest presented by Bet

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Speaker 1: three sixty five one hundred thousand and cash prizes up

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Speaker 1: for grabs. Visit Favorites dot actionnetwork dot com. Reminder. The

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Speaker 1: Favorites Pod is presented by BET three sixty five and

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Speaker 1: now new bet three six y five customers get two

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Speaker 1: on spreads, totals, player props, futures, and more. Whatever the moment,

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Speaker 1: it's never ordinary. Three six five must be twenty one

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Speaker 1: or older and president in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana,

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Speaker 1: North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia or eighteen and

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Speaker 1: or one hundred bets off in Iowa terms. Conditions restrictions apply.

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Speaker 1: All right, Another tough week in the contest, folks. Only

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Speaker 1: one percent of participants went five to oh. Congratulations to

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Speaker 1: our weekly winner Antonio A. J. T. Antonio went five

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Speaker 1: and OHO in the contest, missed the tiebreaker by just

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Speaker 1: two yards. As always, producer Matt Mitchell has selected his

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Speaker 1: Producer's Cup Award to the entry that finished dead fucking

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Speaker 1: last in the contest.

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Speaker 2: Have you heard about the Lordsome lose.

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Speaker 4: He's a Louisa, but he still kids on try.

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Speaker 1: This week's Producer's Cup goes to bcorn oog when Own

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Speaker 1: five miss the tiebreaker by three hundred eighty three yards.

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Speaker 1: Bcorn email Matt at podcasts at actionnetwork dot com to

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Speaker 1: claim your prize. Let's talk about New England at the

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Speaker 1: New York Jets six and a half. This line opened

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Speaker 1: seven a half, has got hammered, got down to six.

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Speaker 1: Now it's back up to six and a half. Take

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Speaker 1: the under.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm on the Jets, but it's like what you're

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Speaker 2: just saying here, it's not confidence. I wouldn't make this

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Speaker 2: one of our five I've been. The Jets are in

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Speaker 2: the simple fact of I think they are better than

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Speaker 2: they have.

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Speaker 3: Played these last couple of weeks, right.

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Speaker 2: I think their defense showed up a little bit against

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Speaker 2: the Titans there, and I even think the Titans, as

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Speaker 2: bad as they are offensive, I think they're probably better

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Speaker 2: than this New England Patriots team. So short week on

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Speaker 2: the road for this Patriots team, you expect the Jets

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Speaker 2: to win this game.

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Speaker 3: The question is is by touchdown? Chat? It feels alike

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Speaker 3: a lot.

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Speaker 2: That's the only reason I'm alright taking it just because

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Speaker 2: part of me is just like man, the books must

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Speaker 2: know something here making it this big, because I do

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Speaker 2: make this line five and a half, So right now

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Speaker 2: the value to me is on New England. But I'm

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Speaker 2: gonna trust the books here, trust the other professionals, and

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Speaker 2: they liked the Jets in the spot. And I'm trying

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Speaker 2: to get off this Patriots team after they did good

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Speaker 2: for me last week covering that three and a half.

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Speaker 2: I'm not trying to overadjust it this week. So maybe

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Speaker 2: I'm too high in this Patriots team. I'll go to

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Speaker 2: the Jets. But luckily we don't have to make this

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Speaker 2: one of our five no.

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Speaker 1: And I'm glad we don't, but people are going to

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Speaker 1: want to hear some analysis. It's interesting to me that

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Speaker 1: you're going on the Jets. It's hard not to be

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Speaker 1: impressed with this Pats defense. Right. They stifled Joe Burrow,

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Speaker 1: they made good plays, they were opportunistic, They took Seattle

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Speaker 1: to overtime, and they were down in that game and

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Speaker 1: getting dominated. They should have lost that game. It should

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Speaker 1: have been easy cover for Seattle, and they pushed the three.

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Speaker 1: The problem is it's just not an explosive offense, just

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Speaker 1: thirty six points in these two games, only thirteen of

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Speaker 1: those in the second half. What this says to me,

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Speaker 1: and maybe it says the same thing to you, Gerond

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Speaker 1: Mayo and that coaching staff are doing a great job.

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Speaker 1: They are coaching those players up, they are game planning

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Speaker 1: really well, and that's why they're staying in these games

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Speaker 1: in the first half. They don't have the talent to

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Speaker 1: make huge adjustments in the second half. Right now, Like

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Speaker 1: I would give the coaching edge in this game to

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Speaker 1: the Patriots over what I've seen from the Jets.

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Speaker 2: That's fair, and I know Evan's gonna have some amazing stats.

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Speaker 2: I mean this, I can't remember in my lifetime if

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Speaker 2: I remember the Jets being a six and a half

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Speaker 2: point favorite over the Patriots. I mean it has to

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Speaker 2: go back to what like the early nineties. I mean,

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Speaker 2: I don't even know.

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Speaker 3: So I totally get the hesitation chat. I don't feel

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Speaker 3: good about it either.

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Speaker 2: So the Jets perspective is they might have just played

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Speaker 2: two really good defenses, right Titans might actually are a

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Speaker 2: pretty good defense, and same with the forty nine ers.

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Speaker 2: And like you said, we do think the pitche have

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Speaker 2: get defense. We've seen the time time again. Right, These

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Speaker 2: short weeks tend to not be good for these defenses traveling,

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Speaker 2: especially in a game like they just had against Seattle,

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Speaker 2: which was hard pumping, hard hitting, and you just said right,

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Speaker 2: they played extra snaps.

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Speaker 3: That was an extra long game.

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Speaker 2: So it's it's all bad for that new England team.

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Speaker 2: And yeah, here we go, my man Evan. Jets have

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Speaker 2: only been favored once since two thousand and two against

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Speaker 2: the Patriots, and that was in twenty eleven. Mark Sanchez first,

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Speaker 2: Tom Brady haven't closed that minus seven or higher since

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Speaker 2: September twelfth and nineteen ninety nine.

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Speaker 1: So no way, he's basically twenty five years since the

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Speaker 1: Jets were seven point favorites. Here's my other problem with

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Speaker 1: the Jets. They did beat the Titans, it felt like

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Speaker 1: a really hollow victory, right, I.

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Speaker 2: Mean they got a block punt with four guys rushing

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Speaker 2: Jet like that was inexcusable.

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Speaker 1: Tremaine Johnson is out for the year. Yeah, I don't

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Speaker 1: think Nathaniel Hackett knows how to use Aaron Rodgers because

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Speaker 1: right now his throws and his receptions are going to

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Speaker 1: his running backs. Half of the receptions last week from

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Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers went to Breeses Hall and Brilin Allen like

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Speaker 1: they don't.

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Speaker 3: That's what the defense gave him.

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Speaker 2: I do agree with you, but like you've seen at

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Speaker 2: the NFL, the NFL is just weird right now.

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Speaker 3: It's different.

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Speaker 2: Like Aaron Rodgers is thrown for one hundred and fifty

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Speaker 2: yards and that's like an ra game from him. I

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Speaker 2: agree with you, though, it's there's some major questions. So

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Speaker 2: if you want to take the Patriots, that's fine, but

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Speaker 2: obviously you missed the seven and a half.

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Speaker 3: That's my biggest issue. Right the seventh and a half

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Speaker 3: was out there.

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Speaker 1: I'm probably going to take the under, like I think,

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Speaker 1: if it gets back to seven primetime, it's six and

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Speaker 1: a half trending towards seven. If it gets back to seven,

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Speaker 1: I'll take it.

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Speaker 4: Just absolutely a gutsy call about a really good call, all.

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Speaker 1: Right, Denver at Tampa Bay. Look, we faded Tampa Bay

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Speaker 1: last week. It was a mistake. We bet Denver last week.

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Speaker 1: It might have been a mistake. I will say right

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Speaker 1: now that this is a luck rankings game, favoring Denver

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Speaker 1: in this spot, which is in a way team that

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Speaker 1: is the luck ranking side thirteen and four against the spread.

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Speaker 1: I got a lot of opinions on this game. We

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Speaker 1: have not talked about it. Fascinated to hear what you think.

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Speaker 3: Right now, I really have no read on it.

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Speaker 2: It's like, I want to take this this Denver team,

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Speaker 2: But when I go back and watch y'all twenty two

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Speaker 2: on bone Nicks, it's like, and I know all these

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Speaker 2: rookies are struggling, right we haven't had a single passing

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Speaker 2: touchdown from one of these rookie.

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Speaker 3: Quarterbacks through two weeks, which is just insane.

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Speaker 2: But bone Nicks is over four, Like he is zero

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Speaker 2: passing touch as a four interceptions.

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Speaker 3: It's all, it's so bad, But it's I agree with you.

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Speaker 2: It's probably me overacting because he's faced two pretty tough

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Speaker 2: defenses in Seattle then Pittsburgh. Yeah, this is obviously is

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Speaker 2: not that tough of a defense.

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Speaker 3: I should say.

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Speaker 2: You know, they did do well against Detroit, but we

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Speaker 2: see that the standpup team does have major injuries in

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Speaker 2: the secondary. Like that's I think that was more on

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Speaker 2: golf than anyone else. So I get it, Like, you

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Speaker 2: can probably talk me into this plus seven because it

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Speaker 2: is one of these ugly dogs we do like, But

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Speaker 2: as we sit here on Tuesday, I haven't. I haven't

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Speaker 2: put a dollar into this game yet, so I agree

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Speaker 2: the seven is a nice number.

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Speaker 3: It probably will go down.

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Speaker 2: For professionals in it. But uh, bo Nicks, it's I mean,

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Speaker 2: we experienced it last week, Chad. You have zero faith

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Speaker 2: if the other team gets up double digits.

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Speaker 1: Zero, I mean, it's the I'm checking the number right

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Speaker 1: now because it's it was at seven at bet three,

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Speaker 1: six five, it's now down to six and a half

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Speaker 1: there and six and a half is painted across the board,

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Speaker 1: so you either got to hope that it gets back

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Speaker 1: to seven or take a flyer on the six and

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Speaker 1: a half. I do think there's significant inflation in the bucks.

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Speaker 1: You know, they start to and oh, they have a

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Speaker 1: really big win on the road against a team they

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Speaker 1: lost to in the playoffs, against a Super Bowl contender.

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Speaker 1: But this secondary is battered and missing a lot of players,

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Speaker 1: and now they're missing Vitavea, who's out for probably two

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Speaker 1: to three weeks if not more with a sprained MCL.

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Speaker 1: So like, it's a tough one. The only issue is

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Speaker 1: there is no evidence Bo Nicks can get the ball

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Speaker 1: down field, and you're right, this game has to be close.

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Speaker 1: You gotta believe. What I would say is that they

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Speaker 1: have been good in the last two minutes of the

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Speaker 1: first half of the end of the game, when when

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Speaker 1: they can be a little bit more spontaneous, things are

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Speaker 1: a little bit looser because they're usually trailing and the

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Speaker 1: game is out of reach. So is this backdoor cover potential?

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Speaker 1: Like there's something about this game that feels tricky, plus

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Speaker 1: the luck rankings factor, like this is one of the

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Speaker 1: biggest luck ranking games on the board. I'm putting on

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Speaker 1: the list to discuss. It's not assignment says, it's not

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Speaker 1: an exec decision. We will get to those today, but

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Speaker 1: it's on the board, Okay. Houston at Minnesota. Minnesota is

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Speaker 1: a two and a half point home underdog. Sunday night

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Speaker 1: when we did our show, the line was three and

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Speaker 1: a half. I got a lot of thoughts on this

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Speaker 1: game too.

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Speaker 2: Son, Oh man, they're trying to make me a sucker.

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Speaker 2: How do I not take Houston now that it's moved

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Speaker 2: on to the three. So this is this is why

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Speaker 2: I'm gonna need to talk to other other professionals because

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Speaker 2: I have this number. A three value right now is

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Speaker 2: showing on Houston. So I think you're getting a good number,

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Speaker 2: a two and a half. But it's like the books

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Speaker 2: are kind of telling you they think this Vikings team

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Speaker 2: is about to go three, you know, to start this year.

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Speaker 2: Like this is a very telling line because they know

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Speaker 2: the general public it's gonna feel like me, it's like

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Speaker 2: Houston's a better team. They're under a field goal here.

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Speaker 2: We want to take this. But me and you talked

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Speaker 2: about it all last season. We did not like backing

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Speaker 2: CG on the road as a favorite, and it was

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Speaker 2: good for us not to back them on.

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Speaker 3: The road as a favorite. So hesitation is warranted here.

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Speaker 2: I might talk myself into taking this Vikings team by Thursday,

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Speaker 2: but right now as we sit here, it's like my

252
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Speaker 2: value is showing Houston. But I know that something's a

253
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Speaker 2: little fishy about this line.

254
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Speaker 1: What's interesting about this game is we know Brian Flores,

255
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Speaker 1: the defensive coordinator for the Vikings, he loves to bliss. Yeah,

256
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Speaker 1: and like he used stunts. He used extra rushes to

257
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Speaker 1: get into brock Perty's grill for his two interceptions. It

258
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Speaker 1: was the opposite of what he did the week before

259
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Speaker 1: excuse me. Against Daniel Jones. They used a lot of

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Speaker 1: cover two, a lot of two high safeties. Like it

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Speaker 1: was really interesting how they changed it up and didn't

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Speaker 1: do their normal tendencies playing against the Giants. I don't

263
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Speaker 1: know what he'll do against CJ. Stroud. C J Stroud

264
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Speaker 1: this year seventeen of twenty, averaging eight point three yards

265
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Speaker 1: per attempt in the first two weeks of the year

266
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Speaker 1: against the Blitz, Like the Blitz was a one place

267
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Speaker 1: where he was less effective last year, not ineffective, just

268
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Speaker 1: less than others. And now he's even great at that,

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Speaker 1: So like that makes it really challenging. I get why

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Speaker 1: you've got the Texans rated where they are. We've now

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Speaker 1: been burned by the Vikings right in a bad spot.

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Speaker 3: Right.

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Speaker 1: I had a little biased because I had the Vikings

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Speaker 1: as being one of the worst teams in the NFL

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Speaker 1: this year. You had a little bias last week because

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Speaker 1: you're you love the Niners roster and we sort of

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Speaker 1: we missed that one. But you know, burn me once,

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Speaker 1: shame on you, burn me twice, shame on us.

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Speaker 3: I gotta say I'm a little ashamed of you. I'd

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Speaker 3: just like to ask you something.

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Speaker 1: How much is enough undefeated versus undefeated? It has happened

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Speaker 1: twenty two times the past twenty years. In Week three,

283
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Speaker 1: dogs are thirteen and nine against the spread. Home teams

284
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Speaker 1: are fourteen and eight against the spread. Home teams overall

285
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Speaker 1: fifty seven percent against the spread when two undefeated teams

286
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Speaker 1: played the past twenty years.

287
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Speaker 3: Yeah, so it's brutal again.

288
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Speaker 2: If it was three and a half, this would have

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Speaker 2: been a no doubt or in the contest place, so professionals. Unfortunately,

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Speaker 2: we did our shows Sunday night. They hit that super

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Speaker 2: hard and got it down to words that now. So

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Speaker 2: the only hope is Chad the public comes in heavy

293
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Speaker 2: enough that maybe we get back to the three. But yeah,

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Speaker 2: I told you that, just be careful. This Houston number

295
00:15:39,320 --> 00:15:41,880
Speaker 2: very very fishy. This line be sitting at minus two

296
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Speaker 2: and a half.

297
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Speaker 1: Doesn't it feel like numbers this week at least moved

298
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Speaker 1: much faster than normal and there have been some really

299
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Speaker 1: aggressive line moves. Even fifteen minutes before we went on

300
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Speaker 1: the air, and we're going through the script and I'm

301
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Speaker 1: checking the spreads with Tito to make sure all the

302
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Speaker 1: graphics are right for the show. I had updated the

303
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Speaker 1: script at eleven am this morning. We recorded one thirty

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Speaker 1: two and a half hours later, I'd say half of

305
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Speaker 1: these numbers had changed, like and not insignificantly. That's a

306
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Speaker 1: lot of movement.

307
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Speaker 2: Yeah, I would say, it's it's why I have what

308
00:16:23,520 --> 00:16:26,040
Speaker 2: you're feeling so much of on Sunday night, which is

309
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Speaker 2: shame of like we should be fat pocketed right now.

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Speaker 2: This was this past Weekend's the exact weekend. Mean you

311
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Speaker 2: get really rich off of right, these big dogs winning

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Speaker 2: outright that we usually love. So that's what the pros

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Speaker 2: just had. So you just saw pros who you know,

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Speaker 2: most pros aren't going in and getting cash right when

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Speaker 2: they go in. They usually roll that money over if

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Speaker 2: they like a number on a certain line. And we

317
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Speaker 2: talked Sunday night, there was a bunch of lines that

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Speaker 2: jumped out right to me. So if that was me

319
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Speaker 2: going to the book on Sunday night, I had a

320
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Speaker 2: lot of tickets to roll over.

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Speaker 3: You had a lot of options.

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Speaker 2: So that's why I think we've seen so much here

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Speaker 2: is that so much professional money are at these books

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Speaker 2: right now, and the books are going to react to

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Speaker 2: it because they did just get you know, beaten pretty

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Speaker 2: good by these pros. Luckily for them, it was like

327
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Speaker 2: their best weekend ever because the public got beat so bad.

328
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Speaker 2: So you're you're right though, like this is not normal

329
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Speaker 2: to see certain games move six points within twenty four hours.

330
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Speaker 2: So yeah, it's it's pretty wild here in week three.

331
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Speaker 2: How much movement there's been.

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Speaker 1: That's such an such an interesting fact slash habit about

333
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Speaker 1: professional betters, which I don't think a lot of people get.

334
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Speaker 1: I lived this firsthand when I wrote The Odds, you know,

335
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Speaker 1: all those years ago, my best selling book about guys

336
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Speaker 1: who have been in sports for a living. But when

337
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Speaker 1: I was sitting with professional betters, and I very clearly

338
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Speaker 1: remember Alan Boston, who at the time was the best

339
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Speaker 1: college basketball handicapper handicapper in the world, had six figures

340
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Speaker 1: on a March Madness game and the team that he

341
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Speaker 1: had bet on verb with the last second three pointer.

342
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Speaker 1: That meant nothing to anybody except people who were betting

343
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Speaker 1: on the game. He didn't celebrate, he didn't overreact, he

344
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Speaker 1: didn't think to himself, Okay, I'm going to profit. He

345
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Speaker 1: picked up the money, picked up the phone and put

346
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Speaker 1: the money back and play.

347
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Speaker 3: That was it.

348
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Speaker 1: Just quickly flipped it around. Six figures, just flipped it

349
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Speaker 1: around like that. Los Angeles Chargers two and oh Pittsburgh

350
00:18:25,119 --> 00:18:30,280
Speaker 1: Steelers two and o X rayson Justin Herbert were negative.

351
00:18:31,080 --> 00:18:35,400
Speaker 1: Not entirely clear that he'll play on Sunday, but let's

352
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Speaker 1: say he plays because he did play in the game

353
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Speaker 1: with the injury.

354
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Speaker 5: Respectfully, There's certain things that go on among teams as

355
00:18:42,280 --> 00:18:44,359
Speaker 5: a leader that I talked to the collective about that

356
00:18:44,400 --> 00:18:47,359
Speaker 5: I have zero intentions of sharing with the larger public.

357
00:18:47,520 --> 00:18:49,159
Speaker 5: You know, I can't give you all the ingredients to

358
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Speaker 5: the hot dog. You might not like it.

359
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Speaker 1: This to me feels like the ultimate bet on matchup,

360
00:18:53,720 --> 00:18:55,560
Speaker 1: right when you know you have those two bet on

361
00:18:55,600 --> 00:18:58,560
Speaker 1: teams that you're frustrated because you like them both so much.

362
00:18:59,119 --> 00:19:02,680
Speaker 1: We love Tomlin. He's got a mediocre quarterback, a defense

363
00:19:02,720 --> 00:19:09,080
Speaker 1: that is dominating against suspect offenses. Hardball is another better's favorite.

364
00:19:09,440 --> 00:19:11,440
Speaker 1: He's got a better QB who may be injured.

365
00:19:12,000 --> 00:19:14,200
Speaker 3: I love guys who like football, and guys who like

366
00:19:14,240 --> 00:19:17,280
Speaker 3: football they like me back. I like them back. Even

367
00:19:17,320 --> 00:19:19,399
Speaker 3: guys that don't like football. I mean, they try to

368
00:19:19,440 --> 00:19:19,840
Speaker 3: avoid me.

369
00:19:19,800 --> 00:19:22,720
Speaker 2: Because I'm always trying to get them to like football more.

370
00:19:23,200 --> 00:19:27,520
Speaker 1: Chargers have the highest rated defense per Pro Football Focus

371
00:19:28,119 --> 00:19:33,480
Speaker 1: and a higher rated rush D than the Steelers just barely.

372
00:19:33,880 --> 00:19:36,359
Speaker 1: This is going to be a game about how teams

373
00:19:36,400 --> 00:19:39,120
Speaker 1: do on the ground. JK. Dobbins one hundred and thirty

374
00:19:39,160 --> 00:19:43,000
Speaker 1: yards a game. You know, justin Field's throwing it ten

375
00:19:43,040 --> 00:19:47,359
Speaker 1: times a game. Totals I think at thirty five and

376
00:19:47,359 --> 00:19:50,280
Speaker 1: a half right now, Why do I lean Chargers here?

377
00:19:51,600 --> 00:19:53,720
Speaker 2: Because the number doesn't make sense, Like you just said,

378
00:19:53,800 --> 00:19:57,359
Speaker 2: Herbert might have a real injury, it might miss this game.

379
00:19:57,480 --> 00:19:59,360
Speaker 2: But the books are happy enough to hang it at

380
00:19:59,480 --> 00:20:03,399
Speaker 2: one and a half too. Really interesting position by the books.

381
00:20:03,440 --> 00:20:06,080
Speaker 2: But I want to be on Pittsburgh, Like, if you're

382
00:20:06,080 --> 00:20:10,639
Speaker 2: gonna get me a bad ankle on Herbert against you know, TJ.

383
00:20:10,800 --> 00:20:15,240
Speaker 2: Watt and Cam Hayward, we like, we like that matchup.

384
00:20:15,280 --> 00:20:18,480
Speaker 2: I mean, let's really break this down here. What is

385
00:20:18,560 --> 00:20:19,920
Speaker 2: this Chargers team really done?

386
00:20:20,040 --> 00:20:20,240
Speaker 3: Right?

387
00:20:20,280 --> 00:20:22,119
Speaker 2: They beat a Raiders thing that think me and you

388
00:20:22,160 --> 00:20:24,520
Speaker 2: both agreed on. We feel like the Raiders lost that

389
00:20:24,560 --> 00:20:27,000
Speaker 2: game more so the Chargers won it. And they just

390
00:20:27,000 --> 00:20:28,959
Speaker 2: beat up on a Panthers team that just benched their

391
00:20:29,000 --> 00:20:31,720
Speaker 2: quarterback the next week. So it's like a lot of

392
00:20:31,800 --> 00:20:35,600
Speaker 2: unknowns there where I watched all that Denver game unfortunately,

393
00:20:35,720 --> 00:20:37,520
Speaker 2: Chat because me and you were heavily invested in that

394
00:20:37,560 --> 00:20:41,640
Speaker 2: and really needed a two and three week and justin

395
00:20:41,680 --> 00:20:44,920
Speaker 2: fields that's on big time throws. And I love what

396
00:20:45,200 --> 00:20:48,320
Speaker 2: Arthur Smith's doing, which is just like I'm not gonna

397
00:20:48,400 --> 00:20:50,960
Speaker 2: let you beat us, justin like I'm gonna put you

398
00:20:50,960 --> 00:20:53,840
Speaker 2: in a position where if you are taking shots, it's

399
00:20:53,880 --> 00:20:56,240
Speaker 2: to the boundary, to the outside where either our guy

400
00:20:56,280 --> 00:20:58,480
Speaker 2: can catch it or it's going out of balance. Like

401
00:20:58,560 --> 00:21:02,119
Speaker 2: I love everything they're doing in Pittsburgh a team we

402
00:21:02,240 --> 00:21:05,359
Speaker 2: totally misjudge, just because I did think it would be

403
00:21:05,400 --> 00:21:08,320
Speaker 2: Russell Wilson. I did think they were gonna struggle, like

404
00:21:08,320 --> 00:21:09,880
Speaker 2: there wasn't gonna be much they could do with them.

405
00:21:10,160 --> 00:21:12,280
Speaker 2: But they've had some nice matchups here that their defense

406
00:21:12,400 --> 00:21:14,480
Speaker 2: taken advantage of, and this one here too, feels like

407
00:21:14,920 --> 00:21:18,000
Speaker 2: their defense if they want could take advantage of her right,

408
00:21:18,040 --> 00:21:19,640
Speaker 2: they want to make them one dimension.

409
00:21:19,720 --> 00:21:20,399
Speaker 3: So what would they do.

410
00:21:20,440 --> 00:21:22,439
Speaker 2: They would just try to take away the run and

411
00:21:22,440 --> 00:21:24,080
Speaker 2: make I know it sounds crazy if people would make

412
00:21:24,080 --> 00:21:26,399
Speaker 2: Herbert beat you in a bad ankle, like that's what

413
00:21:26,400 --> 00:21:27,840
Speaker 2: I would do. I know that's what their DC is

414
00:21:27,840 --> 00:21:29,040
Speaker 2: going to try to do if he is the one

415
00:21:29,040 --> 00:21:29,560
Speaker 2: playing there.

416
00:21:29,600 --> 00:21:32,359
Speaker 3: So we'll watch this one as.

417
00:21:32,240 --> 00:21:34,600
Speaker 2: The weeks along, and I'm not gonna make the Simon says, attempted,

418
00:21:34,680 --> 00:21:36,440
Speaker 2: I am to make it that. I just want people

419
00:21:36,480 --> 00:21:37,800
Speaker 2: to know this is on my radar, where like I

420
00:21:37,840 --> 00:21:39,439
Speaker 2: wouldn't hate for this is one of me and Chad's

421
00:21:39,480 --> 00:21:42,399
Speaker 2: five where it's like I like the matchup for Pittsburgh's

422
00:21:42,400 --> 00:21:45,920
Speaker 2: defense and we like the number as well. Definitely need

423
00:21:45,960 --> 00:21:48,359
Speaker 2: some more info in Herbert and what his outlook is,

424
00:21:48,400 --> 00:21:51,399
Speaker 2: but uh, you know, I wouldn't hate us locking this

425
00:21:51,440 --> 00:21:53,159
Speaker 2: one because if he is out, couldn't you see this

426
00:21:53,240 --> 00:21:55,280
Speaker 2: jump up to three three and a half four?

427
00:21:55,800 --> 00:21:57,359
Speaker 1: So why wouldn't we take it right now?

428
00:21:57,640 --> 00:21:59,680
Speaker 2: I'm just hoping more professional money comes in the Charger

429
00:21:59,720 --> 00:22:01,800
Speaker 2: and because it wasn't too now it's down to one and.

430
00:22:01,760 --> 00:22:03,400
Speaker 3: A half of a couple of books, so it's like.

431
00:22:03,920 --> 00:22:06,960
Speaker 2: Clearly there's some pros taking a position on this Chargers side.

432
00:22:07,200 --> 00:22:09,000
Speaker 2: I'm just hoping I can keep getting a better number.

433
00:22:09,160 --> 00:22:10,480
Speaker 2: I did bet it, like I just told you i'd

434
00:22:10,480 --> 00:22:10,960
Speaker 2: bet it.

435
00:22:10,920 --> 00:22:12,639
Speaker 1: But it's I didn't know if you want to make

436
00:22:12,680 --> 00:22:13,760
Speaker 1: it your Simon says.

437
00:22:13,800 --> 00:22:15,720
Speaker 2: I mean on Thursday, it definitely could be one of

438
00:22:15,720 --> 00:22:17,480
Speaker 2: our bets, A big balls or foxhole.

439
00:22:17,600 --> 00:22:22,720
Speaker 1: We could fall in it. Well, listen as my podcast spouse,

440
00:22:23,200 --> 00:22:24,600
Speaker 1: you had me of Steelers.

441
00:22:25,000 --> 00:22:27,840
Speaker 3: They're good. It's a BAP moment right here for your

442
00:22:27,840 --> 00:22:28,359
Speaker 3: young stars.

443
00:22:28,440 --> 00:22:34,560
Speaker 1: Let's live Philadelphia at New Orleans. Oh, my ever loving God,

444
00:22:34,760 --> 00:22:38,159
Speaker 1: this is the line that we're talking about. This is

445
00:22:38,200 --> 00:22:43,240
Speaker 1: the line that has been jumping like fish out of

446
00:22:43,240 --> 00:22:47,080
Speaker 1: a pond on a hot summer day when you're fly fishing.

447
00:22:47,840 --> 00:22:49,960
Speaker 1: I don't know. I've never gone fly fishing. I don't

448
00:22:50,160 --> 00:22:51,160
Speaker 1: like being in a fucking lake.

449
00:22:51,240 --> 00:22:52,679
Speaker 2: I also want to stay at the top so we

450
00:22:52,680 --> 00:22:55,080
Speaker 2: don't lose all of our outdoor listeners. I believe fly

451
00:22:55,200 --> 00:22:58,920
Speaker 2: fishing is mainly done in rivers, but I love that lake.

452
00:22:59,280 --> 00:23:04,120
Speaker 1: You know what, but this line has moved six points,

453
00:23:04,840 --> 00:23:11,360
Speaker 1: massive swing since the Eagles Monday night football loss. Kudos

454
00:23:11,359 --> 00:23:14,480
Speaker 1: to you, Simon Sunday night, we're doing the show. You

455
00:23:14,560 --> 00:23:17,359
Speaker 1: saw the Saints two and a half. You liked it

456
00:23:17,359 --> 00:23:19,639
Speaker 1: at two and a half. Now you might be able

457
00:23:19,680 --> 00:23:21,600
Speaker 1: to get a middle time to break out that old

458
00:23:21,680 --> 00:23:28,600
Speaker 1: chestnut by Marion Morris. The question is do we think

459
00:23:28,600 --> 00:23:29,520
Speaker 1: about the Eagles now?

460
00:23:30,080 --> 00:23:33,159
Speaker 2: Usually me and Chad no brain or fire away or

461
00:23:33,240 --> 00:23:35,800
Speaker 2: right away on this Eagles team, after all this movement,

462
00:23:35,880 --> 00:23:39,200
Speaker 2: because this what I said on the show was I was, SKay,

463
00:23:39,640 --> 00:23:41,600
Speaker 2: what did the Eagles do deserve to be minus two

464
00:23:41,600 --> 00:23:43,680
Speaker 2: and a half favorites on the road against this team?

465
00:23:43,760 --> 00:23:46,440
Speaker 2: And we didn't even talk that's without aj Brown as well.

466
00:23:47,800 --> 00:23:49,720
Speaker 2: You know, going back and watching this Saints team, I

467
00:23:49,720 --> 00:23:52,959
Speaker 2: believe they had the fourth most in NFL history of

468
00:23:53,000 --> 00:23:56,080
Speaker 2: points put up through two weeks. You gotta get shot

469
00:23:56,119 --> 00:23:59,080
Speaker 2: of them some respect, Like that was a disrespectful line.

470
00:23:59,640 --> 00:24:00,560
Speaker 3: The pro came in.

471
00:24:00,640 --> 00:24:04,280
Speaker 2: They destroyed that number from these books enough that they've

472
00:24:04,320 --> 00:24:07,320
Speaker 2: moved it through three key numbers at this point. Chad, right,

473
00:24:07,520 --> 00:24:10,680
Speaker 2: I think Evan talked about uh, you know, I think

474
00:24:10,720 --> 00:24:13,159
Speaker 2: middle of Saturday, maybe even Sunday morning, it was minus

475
00:24:13,160 --> 00:24:15,040
Speaker 2: three and a half. Then I went to two and

476
00:24:15,080 --> 00:24:17,159
Speaker 2: a half, then I went to a pick, then they

477
00:24:17,200 --> 00:24:18,440
Speaker 2: went to minus one on the Saints.

478
00:24:18,520 --> 00:24:20,320
Speaker 3: Now they're up to minus three and a lot of

479
00:24:20,359 --> 00:24:22,080
Speaker 3: the books on the Saints team.

480
00:24:21,960 --> 00:24:25,240
Speaker 2: So pretty incredible. If this gets up to three and

481
00:24:25,280 --> 00:24:28,240
Speaker 2: a half and all the money, all the bets are

482
00:24:28,280 --> 00:24:31,239
Speaker 2: on this Saints team, mean, Chad are probably gonna end

483
00:24:31,280 --> 00:24:33,480
Speaker 2: up on this Eagles team on the other side, taking

484
00:24:33,480 --> 00:24:35,840
Speaker 2: that three and a half, but you have no rush

485
00:24:35,960 --> 00:24:38,119
Speaker 2: someone like me. I'm gonna hit the three now because

486
00:24:38,160 --> 00:24:39,280
Speaker 2: I do have the two and a half and a

487
00:24:39,359 --> 00:24:42,520
Speaker 2: three on the Saints. That's the dream middle spot. Even

488
00:24:42,520 --> 00:24:44,000
Speaker 2: if it's a little amout because I didn't get that

489
00:24:44,119 --> 00:24:46,720
Speaker 2: much money down, it's still a nice spot to be

490
00:24:46,800 --> 00:24:49,280
Speaker 2: on in this game where you really could could easily

491
00:24:49,280 --> 00:24:51,719
Speaker 2: see this land in between those two numbers. I mean,

492
00:24:51,720 --> 00:24:54,240
Speaker 2: both these teams we expect them to put up a

493
00:24:54,240 --> 00:24:57,960
Speaker 2: lot of points on offense, and you know, the Saints team,

494
00:24:58,600 --> 00:25:00,120
Speaker 2: we don't really know what to make of it, right.

495
00:25:00,200 --> 00:25:02,359
Speaker 2: I mean this Clint Kubiak kid comes in there and

496
00:25:02,800 --> 00:25:05,720
Speaker 2: he's running this Shanahan system and it's it's working. Like

497
00:25:05,800 --> 00:25:09,080
Speaker 2: you watch Kamar in this run scheme, play action passes

498
00:25:09,119 --> 00:25:09,959
Speaker 2: for Derek Carr.

499
00:25:10,200 --> 00:25:13,840
Speaker 3: It is all working. So that's why it's like I'm.

500
00:25:13,720 --> 00:25:16,320
Speaker 2: A little scared, but probably like Chad is where it's like, man,

501
00:25:17,040 --> 00:25:19,399
Speaker 2: this this ain't the Saints of last year. They like,

502
00:25:19,440 --> 00:25:21,840
Speaker 2: even going back watching all the motion, the movement they have,

503
00:25:22,520 --> 00:25:26,040
Speaker 2: the blocking scheme, all of it just looks so well

504
00:25:26,080 --> 00:25:28,560
Speaker 2: prepared and such a such a good team, not just

505
00:25:28,680 --> 00:25:32,640
Speaker 2: defensively but offensively as well. So I get why the

506
00:25:32,640 --> 00:25:34,680
Speaker 2: books have moved this number so much, Chad.

507
00:25:34,720 --> 00:25:36,840
Speaker 3: But we're talking about at what point is that.

508
00:25:36,840 --> 00:25:39,000
Speaker 2: Move too much? I think we've reached that point. Like

509
00:25:39,200 --> 00:25:41,240
Speaker 2: you're giving me a three three and a half on

510
00:25:41,280 --> 00:25:44,040
Speaker 2: the Eagles. If it gets there, that's too tempting for

511
00:25:44,080 --> 00:25:46,640
Speaker 2: me to pass on. So yeah, just let the money

512
00:25:46,680 --> 00:25:48,240
Speaker 2: keep coming in. See if you can get a better number.

513
00:25:48,280 --> 00:25:50,800
Speaker 2: But if you want the Saints now, I mean bet

514
00:25:50,800 --> 00:25:52,080
Speaker 2: three sixty five. So it is a two and a

515
00:25:52,119 --> 00:25:54,200
Speaker 2: half on the Saints if you want to go grab it,

516
00:25:54,200 --> 00:25:55,640
Speaker 2: because I think we and Chat talked about I don't

517
00:25:55,680 --> 00:25:57,399
Speaker 2: know how much longer that's gonna last.

518
00:25:57,640 --> 00:26:00,520
Speaker 1: Teams that open as an underdog and closes a face favorite.

519
00:26:01,040 --> 00:26:03,359
Speaker 1: The past five years, since twenty nineteen, it is about

520
00:26:03,320 --> 00:26:07,520
Speaker 1: one hundred and sixty games forty four percent against the sprint.

521
00:26:08,119 --> 00:26:10,440
Speaker 1: So that is the Saints, by the way, It's also

522
00:26:10,480 --> 00:26:15,040
Speaker 1: the Titans. It's also the Seahawks, also the Ravens, and

523
00:26:15,080 --> 00:26:17,520
Speaker 1: I will tell you the Titans are an interesting game

524
00:26:17,560 --> 00:26:21,399
Speaker 1: that we're gonna get to. So were the Seahawks and Ravens,

525
00:26:21,400 --> 00:26:24,840
Speaker 1: but for different reasons. So I like the trend foreshadowing.

526
00:26:25,200 --> 00:26:29,440
Speaker 1: When we talk about Miami, talk about Dallas could be interesting.

527
00:26:29,960 --> 00:26:32,000
Speaker 1: I mentioned at the top of the show, Simon that

528
00:26:32,440 --> 00:26:36,000
Speaker 1: we are coming to our listeners live from our Tommy

529
00:26:36,080 --> 00:26:40,280
Speaker 1: John home studios. And that is because the good people

530
00:26:40,320 --> 00:26:44,399
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531
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532
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533
00:26:54,680 --> 00:26:59,560
Speaker 1: I am as miserable as I was on Sunday nights

534
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535
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537
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539
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540
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541
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544
00:27:45,840 --> 00:27:48,800
Speaker 1: I mentioned the Titans. I mentioned the Titans. I said,

545
00:27:48,840 --> 00:27:51,040
Speaker 1: we're going to talk about the Titans. The game was

546
00:27:51,080 --> 00:27:53,760
Speaker 1: at two. You asked me what I thought of the Titans.

547
00:27:54,160 --> 00:27:56,960
Speaker 1: I was so down on Will Levis. I immediately pushed back.

548
00:27:57,040 --> 00:28:00,919
Speaker 1: He was so bad. His coach had to explore his

549
00:28:01,080 --> 00:28:04,879
Speaker 1: reaction when he went after Levis coming off the field

550
00:28:05,040 --> 00:28:08,000
Speaker 1: after Levis made another bonuute play last week.

551
00:28:08,680 --> 00:28:10,000
Speaker 4: Yeah, I was upset it was done. It was the

552
00:28:10,040 --> 00:28:11,920
Speaker 4: same exact thing he did last week, and he cost

553
00:28:12,000 --> 00:28:13,600
Speaker 4: us points in the red zone. That he's a grown

554
00:28:13,680 --> 00:28:15,399
Speaker 4: up and he knows better, and so you know, I

555
00:28:15,440 --> 00:28:17,159
Speaker 4: was really irritated that he cost us three points in

556
00:28:17,160 --> 00:28:18,880
Speaker 4: a game that we probably needed it.

557
00:28:19,080 --> 00:28:21,119
Speaker 1: The line has moved from Titans minus two to Titans

558
00:28:21,119 --> 00:28:23,399
Speaker 1: minus three. The money was going in the direction you

559
00:28:23,400 --> 00:28:26,000
Speaker 1: said it would. The wise guys basically took their tickets,

560
00:28:26,000 --> 00:28:29,119
Speaker 1: putting back on the Titans. Good for them, were your

561
00:28:29,119 --> 00:28:29,840
Speaker 1: thoughts right now?

562
00:28:30,160 --> 00:28:32,000
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think that this an thought process is me.

563
00:28:32,119 --> 00:28:36,600
Speaker 2: It's just like you've had horrible quarterback play and I

564
00:28:36,600 --> 00:28:38,840
Speaker 2: think we all can agree they probably should have covered

565
00:28:39,000 --> 00:28:41,600
Speaker 2: both games, maybe even win both games. You know, at

566
00:28:41,600 --> 00:28:43,640
Speaker 2: the end of the day, that just shows that there

567
00:28:44,160 --> 00:28:47,640
Speaker 2: is talent on this team. Like the coach. I can't

568
00:28:47,680 --> 00:28:49,320
Speaker 2: remember the last time we've had a coach too with

569
00:28:49,360 --> 00:28:51,160
Speaker 2: that coach Kelly and just did to him, right chat.

570
00:28:51,240 --> 00:28:53,040
Speaker 2: I mean he went in the presser and basically just said,

571
00:28:53,360 --> 00:28:55,240
Speaker 2: the kid's a fucking idiot, Like I told him not

572
00:28:55,320 --> 00:28:58,280
Speaker 2: to make the mistake last week after what he did

573
00:28:58,360 --> 00:28:59,800
Speaker 2: the previous week, and he did it again.

574
00:29:00,400 --> 00:29:02,560
Speaker 3: So yeah, is that tough? Love?

575
00:29:03,040 --> 00:29:04,880
Speaker 2: It is, But he's a growing ass man, Like you're

576
00:29:04,880 --> 00:29:07,120
Speaker 2: making millions of dollars in sleep, you're not in college

577
00:29:07,200 --> 00:29:09,400
Speaker 2: or high school. Like the kid gloves are off. We

578
00:29:09,480 --> 00:29:11,840
Speaker 2: just don't hear that, right, Usually that's be fine closed doors.

579
00:29:12,400 --> 00:29:14,640
Speaker 2: He's kind of going the new style just being opened

580
00:29:14,640 --> 00:29:17,200
Speaker 2: the media about it, where it's just like basically saying

581
00:29:17,200 --> 00:29:18,360
Speaker 2: this kid will be out of the league if he

582
00:29:18,400 --> 00:29:22,720
Speaker 2: continues doing this, which is the damn truth. So my

583
00:29:22,840 --> 00:29:24,239
Speaker 2: view one that I think you have the same kind

584
00:29:24,240 --> 00:29:26,479
Speaker 2: of view here is just the only people that were

585
00:29:26,480 --> 00:29:29,480
Speaker 2: going to be betting Tennessee here were the professionals and

586
00:29:29,560 --> 00:29:30,080
Speaker 2: the public.

587
00:29:30,640 --> 00:29:32,040
Speaker 3: No doubt was going to come in on the.

588
00:29:31,960 --> 00:29:34,640
Speaker 2: Screen Bay team because they were so heavy on the

589
00:29:34,640 --> 00:29:36,440
Speaker 2: Colts team watching that game, they're like, you know what,

590
00:29:36,560 --> 00:29:38,840
Speaker 2: they were right, the floor is a good coach. He

591
00:29:38,880 --> 00:29:41,720
Speaker 2: can't make this work. It does work when they can

592
00:29:41,800 --> 00:29:44,080
Speaker 2: run the ball. Whatever that was thirty forty times in

593
00:29:44,080 --> 00:29:44,840
Speaker 2: that game.

594
00:29:45,640 --> 00:29:49,800
Speaker 6: On a warm Wisconson afternoon, the Packers got their opponents

595
00:29:49,920 --> 00:29:53,720
Speaker 6: in the deep phrase as the Packers welcomed the new

596
00:29:53,800 --> 00:29:55,880
Speaker 6: season with a warm embrace.

597
00:29:56,600 --> 00:29:59,400
Speaker 2: I don't think this Tennessee's defense is as bad as

598
00:29:59,400 --> 00:30:01,320
Speaker 2: that Colt's the defense. I think they do have the

599
00:30:01,320 --> 00:30:03,520
Speaker 2: front with a couple of guys that are able to

600
00:30:03,520 --> 00:30:06,120
Speaker 2: get those kind of stops. So that's really what I

601
00:30:06,160 --> 00:30:08,800
Speaker 2: was basing that off of. Like, this defense, even if

602
00:30:08,800 --> 00:30:10,520
Speaker 2: it's not Will Levis, if they're gonna take the ball

603
00:30:10,520 --> 00:30:12,440
Speaker 2: out of his hands and just run the ball, I

604
00:30:12,440 --> 00:30:14,480
Speaker 2: think this defense wills this team to get a win

605
00:30:14,520 --> 00:30:17,720
Speaker 2: because they are zero to two two against the spread.

606
00:30:18,040 --> 00:30:20,200
Speaker 2: I mean, we have a historical data from Evan right, you

607
00:30:20,240 --> 00:30:22,880
Speaker 2: want to bet these teams in these spots. So that

608
00:30:23,040 --> 00:30:25,720
Speaker 2: was my whole mentality. Now it's up the minus three,

609
00:30:25,760 --> 00:30:27,880
Speaker 2: so it's like, shit, chat, are we we're gonna have

610
00:30:27,880 --> 00:30:30,160
Speaker 2: minus three and a half in the contest, because that's

611
00:30:30,160 --> 00:30:31,760
Speaker 2: gonna be tough to take them minus three and a

612
00:30:31,800 --> 00:30:34,680
Speaker 2: half in the contest, this Tennessee team. So that's a

613
00:30:34,720 --> 00:30:37,360
Speaker 2: conversation we have to have for Thursday. But as we

614
00:30:37,400 --> 00:30:40,320
Speaker 2: sit here right now, I don't know if I just

615
00:30:40,360 --> 00:30:42,400
Speaker 2: take the three. I don't know if I take it yet.

616
00:30:42,400 --> 00:30:45,479
Speaker 2: But my hope is it goes back down to two

617
00:30:45,520 --> 00:30:47,560
Speaker 2: and a half, but I have three. If I have

618
00:30:47,600 --> 00:30:49,480
Speaker 2: to make a pick, yeah, I'll go Tennessee here. But

619
00:30:50,000 --> 00:30:51,320
Speaker 2: I hope you can wait and try to get the

620
00:30:51,360 --> 00:30:52,080
Speaker 2: two and a half again.

621
00:30:52,600 --> 00:30:55,160
Speaker 1: I don't know that it's going back down. Maybe it

622
00:30:55,200 --> 00:30:56,360
Speaker 1: will maybe, yeah.

623
00:30:56,200 --> 00:30:58,320
Speaker 2: Because I'm seeing some plus one plus one hundreds on

624
00:30:58,360 --> 00:30:59,560
Speaker 2: it right now, a couple of books.

625
00:30:59,800 --> 00:31:02,680
Speaker 1: Yeah. Ye, all right, then let's wait. I will I

626
00:31:03,120 --> 00:31:06,120
Speaker 1: one hundred percent agree with everything you're saying. Like this

627
00:31:06,200 --> 00:31:10,920
Speaker 1: Titans team, it's only allowed three offensive touchdowns. You know,

628
00:31:11,280 --> 00:31:16,960
Speaker 1: it's top ten overall in expected points added EPA, which

629
00:31:17,000 --> 00:31:20,080
Speaker 1: is just a fancy metric of saying how they perform

630
00:31:20,600 --> 00:31:23,400
Speaker 1: compared to expectations on a play by play basis and

631
00:31:23,400 --> 00:31:27,880
Speaker 1: how many points should be expected when a play happens.

632
00:31:28,840 --> 00:31:31,240
Speaker 1: The rush offense, by the way, thanks to Bill Callahan,

633
00:31:31,320 --> 00:31:34,640
Speaker 1: who we've been touting since before the season began, it's

634
00:31:34,720 --> 00:31:37,840
Speaker 1: top ten in yards per attempt. Yeah, and the one

635
00:31:37,920 --> 00:31:40,760
Speaker 1: thing the Packers have to do well in this game

636
00:31:40,840 --> 00:31:44,240
Speaker 1: is run the ball. They played a really bad Colts

637
00:31:44,240 --> 00:31:46,000
Speaker 1: defense and the Colts.

638
00:31:46,120 --> 00:31:47,400
Speaker 3: Colts made zero adjustment.

639
00:31:48,320 --> 00:31:51,240
Speaker 1: They made zero adjustment even after DeForest Buckner left the game.

640
00:31:51,480 --> 00:31:54,000
Speaker 1: Will they be able to do the same thing against

641
00:31:54,040 --> 00:31:57,400
Speaker 1: a much better Titans front? It's it's just a question

642
00:31:57,480 --> 00:32:01,120
Speaker 1: of can we stomach betting on Will Levis? That's really it.

643
00:32:01,280 --> 00:32:03,240
Speaker 2: At what point do they steal one or two games?

644
00:32:03,240 --> 00:32:05,840
Speaker 2: This feels like a game they should steal, right Yeah?

645
00:32:07,000 --> 00:32:09,880
Speaker 6: Now, New York Giants glory ears are a distant memory

646
00:32:09,880 --> 00:32:12,400
Speaker 6: for their long suffering followers who have endured through the

647
00:32:12,480 --> 00:32:13,240
Speaker 6: worst of Johns.

648
00:32:13,760 --> 00:32:17,160
Speaker 1: New York Giants of Cleveland Week three dogs that are

649
00:32:17,240 --> 00:32:20,280
Speaker 1: zero and two against the spread, yep cover sixty one

650
00:32:20,360 --> 00:32:24,720
Speaker 1: percent of the time the past twenty years. The brown

651
00:32:24,880 --> 00:32:28,120
Speaker 1: just went on the road. Deshaun look like a decent quarterback.

652
00:32:29,320 --> 00:32:31,360
Speaker 1: Do we sell high on Cleveland and buy low on

653
00:32:31,440 --> 00:32:33,960
Speaker 1: the Giants?

654
00:32:34,320 --> 00:32:36,800
Speaker 2: I mean, you know exactly what I want to do, Chad,

655
00:32:36,960 --> 00:32:38,600
Speaker 2: I mean the fans that I want to do, you

656
00:32:38,640 --> 00:32:40,040
Speaker 2: know what I want to do? Of course we want

657
00:32:40,040 --> 00:32:41,160
Speaker 2: to buy the Giants here.

658
00:32:41,200 --> 00:32:42,920
Speaker 3: But man, is this ugly?

659
00:32:43,720 --> 00:32:45,960
Speaker 1: Like they're all ugly? You know what our problem is?

660
00:32:46,040 --> 00:32:46,480
Speaker 1: Right now?

661
00:32:46,640 --> 00:32:47,960
Speaker 3: Simon, talk to me.

662
00:32:49,240 --> 00:32:53,760
Speaker 1: We are a We're a little anxious b we are.

663
00:32:55,400 --> 00:32:58,120
Speaker 1: It's almost like we feel like these quarterbacks Bryce Young,

664
00:32:58,360 --> 00:33:02,960
Speaker 1: Will Levis, Daniel Jones, we are more afraid to bet

665
00:33:03,000 --> 00:33:05,160
Speaker 1: bad quarterbacks than we've ever been. And I don't know

666
00:33:05,200 --> 00:33:07,040
Speaker 1: why that is. I don't know why that's in our

667
00:33:07,080 --> 00:33:08,040
Speaker 1: head right now.

668
00:33:08,640 --> 00:33:11,479
Speaker 2: Because even the great quarterbacks in this league right now

669
00:33:11,480 --> 00:33:12,080
Speaker 2: are struggling.

670
00:33:12,120 --> 00:33:13,600
Speaker 3: Chat. That's my big hesitation.

671
00:33:13,720 --> 00:33:16,680
Speaker 2: It's like for me to bet a team now and

672
00:33:16,760 --> 00:33:18,960
Speaker 2: now it sounds crazy, but I need some semblance of

673
00:33:19,000 --> 00:33:20,640
Speaker 2: a run game. I feel like for a lot of

674
00:33:20,680 --> 00:33:23,040
Speaker 2: these teams that's kind of been carrying them where it's like,

675
00:33:23,400 --> 00:33:26,400
Speaker 2: if you can't pick up four three four yards on

676
00:33:26,520 --> 00:33:29,080
Speaker 2: first or second down with a run game, we've seen

677
00:33:29,120 --> 00:33:30,960
Speaker 2: these teams just can't move the ball right if it's

678
00:33:31,000 --> 00:33:32,640
Speaker 2: thirty and ten, a lot of these teams are dead.

679
00:33:33,360 --> 00:33:35,840
Speaker 2: It's just been very different this year in the last

680
00:33:35,880 --> 00:33:38,160
Speaker 2: two years, I should say, but the way defense has

681
00:33:38,200 --> 00:33:41,520
Speaker 2: been playing it So yeah, right here though, my hesitation

682
00:33:41,640 --> 00:33:44,760
Speaker 2: chat is just everything that can could go wrong for

683
00:33:44,800 --> 00:33:49,200
Speaker 2: this Giants team keeps going wrong, and like that Washington game,

684
00:33:49,200 --> 00:33:51,960
Speaker 2: if they just had their kicker they win that game.

685
00:33:52,040 --> 00:33:54,680
Speaker 2: I think it was. I mean, Evan probably knows better

686
00:33:54,680 --> 00:33:56,640
Speaker 2: than me. But I saw some crazy that. But that

687
00:33:56,720 --> 00:33:59,600
Speaker 2: was like the second time in NFL history a team

688
00:33:59,680 --> 00:34:02,000
Speaker 2: school or three touchdowns and lost the game to a

689
00:34:02,000 --> 00:34:04,840
Speaker 2: team that didn't score a touchdown. I mean, did you

690
00:34:04,880 --> 00:34:07,080
Speaker 2: hear what I just said? They scored three touchdowns, they

691
00:34:07,160 --> 00:34:10,440
Speaker 2: lost to a team that didn't score a touchdown, a single touchdown.

692
00:34:11,680 --> 00:34:13,480
Speaker 2: I don't know what to make of this Giants team,

693
00:34:13,640 --> 00:34:16,879
Speaker 2: Like we talked, I think it was Sunday about you know,

694
00:34:17,480 --> 00:34:19,800
Speaker 2: that's a real thing with the contract with Daniel Jones,

695
00:34:19,880 --> 00:34:22,279
Speaker 2: right the injury insurance, they might eventually sit him because

696
00:34:22,280 --> 00:34:23,759
Speaker 2: they don't want to have to forth, you know, give

697
00:34:23,840 --> 00:34:28,040
Speaker 2: up twenty three million of guaranteed money next year if

698
00:34:28,080 --> 00:34:29,200
Speaker 2: they start zero for three.

699
00:34:29,920 --> 00:34:31,080
Speaker 3: That's a real conversation.

700
00:34:31,280 --> 00:34:33,960
Speaker 2: So I love teams that have nothing to lose, and

701
00:34:33,960 --> 00:34:36,360
Speaker 2: they're going forward on this kind of matchup. So you

702
00:34:36,360 --> 00:34:38,040
Speaker 2: already knew it was gonna be like it. You're just

703
00:34:38,040 --> 00:34:40,160
Speaker 2: giving me those numbers. The fact that oh and two

704
00:34:40,200 --> 00:34:43,480
Speaker 2: teams you know, not even against the spread, just straight

705
00:34:43,560 --> 00:34:45,759
Speaker 2: up on the road as a big dog like this

706
00:34:45,840 --> 00:34:47,960
Speaker 2: team is. These are the kind of teams we want

707
00:34:47,960 --> 00:34:50,680
Speaker 2: to back here. So we'll take the six right now?

708
00:34:51,320 --> 00:34:52,840
Speaker 2: How does this not just keep going up?

709
00:34:52,880 --> 00:34:54,440
Speaker 3: Though? Right, I think people are starting to believe a

710
00:34:54,480 --> 00:34:54,799
Speaker 3: little bit.

711
00:34:54,800 --> 00:34:58,040
Speaker 2: In Cleveland, Watson after we played pretty well against that

712
00:34:58,200 --> 00:35:01,120
Speaker 2: Jaguars team. Where I'm coming from an other way, I

713
00:35:01,120 --> 00:35:04,160
Speaker 2: think the Jaguars just had nothing in that game. I

714
00:35:04,160 --> 00:35:06,120
Speaker 2: don't even think Watson played that great. I think just

715
00:35:06,160 --> 00:35:09,239
Speaker 2: altogether that Jaguars team looked like they had nothing. I'll

716
00:35:09,280 --> 00:35:11,960
Speaker 2: take the deskper Giants team here. I feel like you're

717
00:35:11,960 --> 00:35:12,680
Speaker 2: gonna agree with me.

718
00:35:12,680 --> 00:35:14,759
Speaker 1: Right, yeah, I do. I'm a little nervous because I

719
00:35:14,760 --> 00:35:17,759
Speaker 1: think the Browns they've been missing there a couple of

720
00:35:17,760 --> 00:35:21,040
Speaker 1: offensive linemen at tackle. I think they might get those

721
00:35:21,080 --> 00:35:23,520
Speaker 1: guys back this week. And you talk about running game

722
00:35:23,560 --> 00:35:27,080
Speaker 1: and that changes the scope. But again, the Giants do

723
00:35:27,200 --> 00:35:31,280
Speaker 1: have the best interior linemen on defense in the NFL.

724
00:35:31,640 --> 00:35:34,160
Speaker 1: So if there's one area where they should be able

725
00:35:34,200 --> 00:35:38,000
Speaker 1: to contend, it's at the line of scrimmage in the

726
00:35:38,080 --> 00:35:40,279
Speaker 1: running game. We're going to have to bet the Giants here.

727
00:35:40,280 --> 00:35:42,279
Speaker 1: We'll get into the contest. Let's see what the number is,

728
00:35:42,480 --> 00:35:44,160
Speaker 1: but we are going to have to bet the Giants here,

729
00:35:44,360 --> 00:35:46,520
Speaker 1: all right. One of the more interesting games you and

730
00:35:46,520 --> 00:35:48,960
Speaker 1: I talked about it again Sunday, Like I was not

731
00:35:49,040 --> 00:35:50,560
Speaker 1: in a good place Sunday when you were talking about

732
00:35:50,560 --> 00:35:52,600
Speaker 1: the games we talked about with Tennessee and New Orleans,

733
00:35:52,960 --> 00:35:57,320
Speaker 1: Chicago at Indy. This numbers moved all over the board,

734
00:35:57,520 --> 00:35:59,600
Speaker 1: right Like I think it was a two and a half,

735
00:36:00,280 --> 00:36:02,480
Speaker 1: one and a half. Now it's at one. You liked

736
00:36:02,520 --> 00:36:04,040
Speaker 1: the Bears. I think it was at one and a

737
00:36:04,040 --> 00:36:06,279
Speaker 1: half on Sunday, then it went up. Now it's come down.

738
00:36:06,960 --> 00:36:09,360
Speaker 3: Hungry Bears are violent Bears.

739
00:36:09,680 --> 00:36:12,040
Speaker 1: I'm having a hard time with this one. This Colt

740
00:36:12,080 --> 00:36:14,840
Speaker 1: defense is terrible, But I do think this defense doesn't

741
00:36:14,880 --> 00:36:17,279
Speaker 1: have the players right like DeForest Buckner, like I said,

742
00:36:17,360 --> 00:36:20,480
Speaker 1: is likely to miss the game. It cannot rush the passer.

743
00:36:21,000 --> 00:36:24,960
Speaker 1: You know, they cannot stop the run the Bears. Meanwhile,

744
00:36:25,520 --> 00:36:28,600
Speaker 1: their defense has been phenomenal in coverage and rushing the

745
00:36:28,600 --> 00:36:32,120
Speaker 1: passer like as a pass defense, both top five rated

746
00:36:32,640 --> 00:36:36,960
Speaker 1: according to Pro Football Focus. So this to me comes

747
00:36:37,000 --> 00:36:43,319
Speaker 1: down to, is it Shane Steichen figuring out with his

748
00:36:43,440 --> 00:36:49,120
Speaker 1: offensive brain, his big offensive brain, how to get Jonathan

749
00:36:49,160 --> 00:36:53,360
Speaker 1: Taylor in the right spots, how to roll Anthony Richardson out.

750
00:36:53,440 --> 00:36:57,200
Speaker 1: Because the one thing where the Bears are mediocre rush defense,

751
00:36:57,400 --> 00:37:02,640
Speaker 1: there's not their strength, right, so I wanted that the Colts,

752
00:37:03,600 --> 00:37:05,839
Speaker 1: you know, like you were on the Bears. The line

753
00:37:05,880 --> 00:37:10,279
Speaker 1: has moved in the Bears direction, but this feels like

754
00:37:10,320 --> 00:37:11,520
Speaker 1: a Colt spot.

755
00:37:13,120 --> 00:37:13,520
Speaker 3: It does.

756
00:37:13,520 --> 00:37:14,880
Speaker 2: My whole view of it, though, is this should be

757
00:37:14,920 --> 00:37:18,200
Speaker 2: closer to a pick, Like I just think on a

758
00:37:18,239 --> 00:37:20,640
Speaker 2: neutral field, Chicago would be favorite.

759
00:37:20,680 --> 00:37:21,520
Speaker 3: Like we just talked about.

760
00:37:21,560 --> 00:37:25,840
Speaker 2: There to me the more complete team right now. But yeah,

761
00:37:26,200 --> 00:37:28,719
Speaker 2: like again that's stat you gave about the zero to

762
00:37:28,719 --> 00:37:31,719
Speaker 2: two teams. You know they did cover the week one

763
00:37:31,719 --> 00:37:33,120
Speaker 2: obviously everyone knows we took.

764
00:37:33,000 --> 00:37:36,920
Speaker 3: Them week one. But ye yeah, uh interesting game here.

765
00:37:37,040 --> 00:37:37,480
Speaker 3: It's just.

766
00:37:39,040 --> 00:37:41,719
Speaker 2: You know, I think offensively, like you just said, I

767
00:37:41,760 --> 00:37:43,640
Speaker 2: think they both can't see, so they're you can't choose.

768
00:37:43,640 --> 00:37:44,279
Speaker 3: They're out right.

769
00:37:44,360 --> 00:37:46,880
Speaker 2: This This should be a good matchup for the Colts.

770
00:37:46,960 --> 00:37:50,000
Speaker 2: Their offensive line is obviously their best unit on the

771
00:37:50,000 --> 00:37:52,120
Speaker 2: whole team. They should be able to move the ball

772
00:37:52,120 --> 00:37:54,600
Speaker 2: against Dets Bears front like you talked about here. But

773
00:37:54,680 --> 00:37:58,040
Speaker 2: it's like the way the league is with all the penalties, Chad,

774
00:37:58,120 --> 00:38:01,400
Speaker 2: this this team feel like the Colts, where if they

775
00:38:01,440 --> 00:38:03,240
Speaker 2: get one type of penalty on any type of drive,

776
00:38:03,800 --> 00:38:05,960
Speaker 2: it feels it's going to kill the drive right, And

777
00:38:06,600 --> 00:38:08,400
Speaker 2: that's like a my issue on my hesitation right now,

778
00:38:08,440 --> 00:38:12,319
Speaker 2: this Colts team and the flip side. I don't want

779
00:38:12,320 --> 00:38:14,839
Speaker 2: to put too much on Williams yet, like people are

780
00:38:14,880 --> 00:38:17,479
Speaker 2: just shitting on them two weeks in. It's like, can't

781
00:38:17,480 --> 00:38:19,480
Speaker 2: we all agree that Tennessee has a pretty good defense

782
00:38:19,520 --> 00:38:21,160
Speaker 2: and they just want up against a Houston team on

783
00:38:21,160 --> 00:38:23,840
Speaker 2: the road that's also a pretty good defense and his

784
00:38:23,960 --> 00:38:26,600
Speaker 2: line couldn't block anyone. Do we think his line is

785
00:38:26,600 --> 00:38:28,919
Speaker 2: gonna struggle as much against this Colts team?

786
00:38:28,920 --> 00:38:29,440
Speaker 3: I don't.

787
00:38:29,520 --> 00:38:33,640
Speaker 2: So I just have things I'm positive about this Bears team,

788
00:38:33,960 --> 00:38:36,000
Speaker 2: and I'm having a really tough time finding things to

789
00:38:36,040 --> 00:38:39,840
Speaker 2: be positive about this Colts team compared to the Bears.

790
00:38:39,840 --> 00:38:41,080
Speaker 3: For the Bears, they do have things.

791
00:38:41,000 --> 00:38:43,080
Speaker 2: I can build on, not so much to the Colts.

792
00:38:43,080 --> 00:38:45,120
Speaker 2: So if you wanted to pass on it because the

793
00:38:45,200 --> 00:38:47,239
Speaker 2: number has become too sharp and it's too close, now,

794
00:38:47,320 --> 00:38:49,359
Speaker 2: I get it. Where if this was at two two

795
00:38:49,400 --> 00:38:51,120
Speaker 2: and a half, I think me and you would have

796
00:38:51,120 --> 00:38:53,720
Speaker 2: put Bears in the contest to maybe a nice number

797
00:38:53,920 --> 00:38:56,439
Speaker 2: and a good value pick. But like we just said,

798
00:38:56,480 --> 00:38:59,080
Speaker 2: it's going towards a pick right most books is down

799
00:38:59,120 --> 00:39:01,400
Speaker 2: to plus one, and I'm seeing kind of the juice

800
00:39:01,440 --> 00:39:03,239
Speaker 2: towards it going to a pick.

801
00:39:03,320 --> 00:39:04,520
Speaker 3: So, yeah, you're right.

802
00:39:04,560 --> 00:39:07,240
Speaker 2: If it does flip, maybe we go with the Colts

803
00:39:07,280 --> 00:39:10,759
Speaker 2: just because of that amazing stat by Evan. But at

804
00:39:10,760 --> 00:39:13,080
Speaker 2: this point, I'm happy to set this one out.

805
00:39:13,280 --> 00:39:16,880
Speaker 1: Our second big luck rankings game and a number that

806
00:39:16,960 --> 00:39:22,239
Speaker 1: has taken some heavy steam. Miami at Seattle at six

807
00:39:22,280 --> 00:39:26,120
Speaker 1: and a half, it's now down to five. It moved

808
00:39:26,120 --> 00:39:29,359
Speaker 1: to five. Literally as we went on the air, I

809
00:39:29,520 --> 00:39:34,239
Speaker 1: was starting to lean towards Miami before, like after it

810
00:39:34,280 --> 00:39:35,920
Speaker 1: had moved the full point, Like by the time I

811
00:39:36,000 --> 00:39:38,120
Speaker 1: was doing my work, it had already moved six and

812
00:39:38,120 --> 00:39:40,640
Speaker 1: a half to five and a half. But I do

813
00:39:40,719 --> 00:39:44,840
Speaker 1: think this is a big, big luck rankings game. I

814
00:39:44,840 --> 00:39:49,240
Speaker 1: think Seattle's a little bit overinflated. We've got the chance

815
00:39:49,280 --> 00:39:51,759
Speaker 1: to bet a backup quarterback, which we like to do.

816
00:39:52,719 --> 00:39:55,200
Speaker 1: You know, We've got the Week three dogs that are

817
00:39:55,800 --> 00:39:59,760
Speaker 1: zero and two against the spread, covering sixty one percent

818
00:39:59,760 --> 00:40:01,480
Speaker 1: of the time time the past twenty years. That is

819
00:40:01,520 --> 00:40:04,360
Speaker 1: the Dolphins. They didn't cover against the Jags, they didn't

820
00:40:04,400 --> 00:40:07,719
Speaker 1: cover against the Bills. I don't know Seahawks, like they

821
00:40:07,760 --> 00:40:10,560
Speaker 1: pushed both of their games this season against inferior teams

822
00:40:10,560 --> 00:40:12,439
Speaker 1: the Broncos in Week one, the Pats in Week two,

823
00:40:13,080 --> 00:40:16,680
Speaker 1: and like they needed help doing it. So to me,

824
00:40:16,719 --> 00:40:19,480
Speaker 1: it's as much about Miami as it is. It's not.

825
00:40:19,560 --> 00:40:23,440
Speaker 1: It's as much about Seahawks inflation as it is about Miami.

826
00:40:24,920 --> 00:40:27,799
Speaker 2: That's fair, But my positive ass is just like Seattle's

827
00:40:27,840 --> 00:40:30,319
Speaker 2: really earned these two wins and that I'm kind of

828
00:40:30,320 --> 00:40:33,000
Speaker 2: impressed with it. Where it's like I thought for sure

829
00:40:33,000 --> 00:40:35,240
Speaker 2: they were gonna choke that new one game like Awake Chad,

830
00:40:35,280 --> 00:40:37,480
Speaker 2: I really did. I think I made us put it into

831
00:40:37,440 --> 00:40:40,040
Speaker 2: our money line around Robin and it was like, Okay,

832
00:40:40,040 --> 00:40:42,200
Speaker 2: I missed on that one. But my view of it

833
00:40:42,400 --> 00:40:45,000
Speaker 2: was just like that's such a letdown spot for this team,

834
00:40:45,440 --> 00:40:47,760
Speaker 2: where this doesn't feel so much of a letdown spot.

835
00:40:47,840 --> 00:40:49,640
Speaker 2: But I guess it kind of is now right with

836
00:40:50,120 --> 00:40:52,960
Speaker 2: all the questions Miami has at quarterback, so I think

837
00:40:52,960 --> 00:40:54,759
Speaker 2: he nailed it. Though this number to me, has moved

838
00:40:54,800 --> 00:40:57,799
Speaker 2: too much, right, I don't know if we're getting the

839
00:40:57,800 --> 00:40:59,920
Speaker 2: best of the number here where it's like I the value,

840
00:41:00,400 --> 00:41:02,319
Speaker 2: especially if it's now getting to four and a half

841
00:41:02,400 --> 00:41:05,160
Speaker 2: on Seattle, that feels like where the value is gonna

842
00:41:05,200 --> 00:41:08,239
Speaker 2: be right. I mean Skyler Thompson, that's who might be

843
00:41:08,280 --> 00:41:11,400
Speaker 2: the starter for this Miami team on the road against

844
00:41:11,400 --> 00:41:15,279
Speaker 2: a twelve man. I can see them having major issues offensively,

845
00:41:15,480 --> 00:41:18,319
Speaker 2: and you gotta wait and see the injury report. If

846
00:41:18,320 --> 00:41:20,720
Speaker 2: a Chan's all good, that's a huge deal from Miami.

847
00:41:20,800 --> 00:41:23,120
Speaker 2: When we've seen it their first two weeks, he's been

848
00:41:23,160 --> 00:41:26,480
Speaker 2: by far their best most consistent player. That's a big

849
00:41:26,480 --> 00:41:29,520
Speaker 2: deal to that offense. So another game that we'll just

850
00:41:29,560 --> 00:41:31,840
Speaker 2: wait and see. I'll have a better opinion on Thursday.

851
00:41:32,160 --> 00:41:34,200
Speaker 2: But I can tell you every pro I've talked to

852
00:41:34,239 --> 00:41:37,279
Speaker 2: you so far, they hit that Miami number. They love

853
00:41:37,360 --> 00:41:39,600
Speaker 2: Miami at that big number. So they might have a

854
00:41:39,600 --> 00:41:41,279
Speaker 2: different read on it than I do, where they think

855
00:41:41,320 --> 00:41:44,680
Speaker 2: maybe Miami's offense matches up well with this Seattle defense

856
00:41:44,680 --> 00:41:46,440
Speaker 2: and this they'll be able to keep up with them.

857
00:41:46,480 --> 00:41:48,840
Speaker 2: But my other view of it is just like Seattle,

858
00:41:49,560 --> 00:41:53,160
Speaker 2: they did find something against that New England team, right

859
00:41:53,239 --> 00:41:55,080
Speaker 2: like they kind of start figuring out like if you

860
00:41:55,200 --> 00:41:57,759
Speaker 2: just get the ball at the DK that really does

861
00:41:57,800 --> 00:41:59,640
Speaker 2: spread the defense out, whor it doesn't matter if it's

862
00:41:59,680 --> 00:42:01,479
Speaker 2: kind of talk or whoever. They have back to running

863
00:42:01,520 --> 00:42:03,680
Speaker 2: the ball. Once you spread a defense out, there's just

864
00:42:03,719 --> 00:42:07,799
Speaker 2: so many open lanes. So Miami it's it might be

865
00:42:07,800 --> 00:42:09,680
Speaker 2: a season from hell from them, Chad. I mean through

866
00:42:09,719 --> 00:42:12,640
Speaker 2: two weeks they got really lucky against Jaguars team. I

867
00:42:12,680 --> 00:42:14,520
Speaker 2: think me and you both can agree might not be

868
00:42:14,640 --> 00:42:19,279
Speaker 2: that good. So maybe my a Wow, Seattle know is

869
00:42:19,320 --> 00:42:22,040
Speaker 2: minus four and a half. Evan just said wow, So

870
00:42:22,080 --> 00:42:24,520
Speaker 2: that's what I mean. Professionals really love Miami in the spot,

871
00:42:24,600 --> 00:42:27,399
Speaker 2: so I might might have just steered clear of this one.

872
00:42:27,480 --> 00:42:31,160
Speaker 2: Like the Vikings last week. Just trust the pro money.

873
00:42:32,800 --> 00:42:37,160
Speaker 1: Carolina Panthers are five and a half point underdogs on

874
00:42:37,200 --> 00:42:40,600
Speaker 1: the road at the Las Vegas Raiders. No one wants

875
00:42:40,680 --> 00:42:42,480
Speaker 1: us to bet the Panthers. No one wants to talk

876
00:42:42,480 --> 00:42:46,800
Speaker 1: about the Panthers. Simon is getting accosted in South Jersey

877
00:42:46,840 --> 00:42:50,279
Speaker 1: coffee shops about our Panthers bets in week one. This

878
00:42:50,360 --> 00:42:54,399
Speaker 1: is why I don't leave my house. It's another game

879
00:42:54,440 --> 00:42:56,759
Speaker 1: that we discussed on Sunday night at the time. You

880
00:42:56,920 --> 00:43:00,400
Speaker 1: like the Raiders at minus seven, but that's for the

881
00:43:00,440 --> 00:43:07,160
Speaker 1: Andy Dalton news. Now we have Andy Dalton, like the

882
00:43:07,280 --> 00:43:09,040
Speaker 1: trends back the Panthers here.

883
00:43:10,960 --> 00:43:13,080
Speaker 2: All of it does Chad there's a million reasons to

884
00:43:13,200 --> 00:43:15,799
Speaker 2: bet the Panthers here and me and.

885
00:43:15,760 --> 00:43:17,160
Speaker 3: You talked a little bit about it earlier.

886
00:43:18,160 --> 00:43:20,400
Speaker 2: Pro Football Focus has the Panthers great out as the

887
00:43:20,440 --> 00:43:25,239
Speaker 2: fifth best pass blocking offensive line right now in football.

888
00:43:25,360 --> 00:43:27,399
Speaker 3: They had the same number as we do. Right.

889
00:43:27,480 --> 00:43:29,279
Speaker 2: They have a lot of analytic people hired on this

890
00:43:29,719 --> 00:43:32,279
Speaker 2: Carolina staff. That to me is why they made the

891
00:43:32,280 --> 00:43:35,479
Speaker 2: Bryce Young move, where they're just like, everything this guy

892
00:43:35,560 --> 00:43:38,120
Speaker 2: does has been a negative, right Everything he's doing for

893
00:43:38,200 --> 00:43:41,560
Speaker 2: our team is a negative right now. So to me,

894
00:43:41,760 --> 00:43:44,520
Speaker 2: this is the right move. It's not one that I

895
00:43:44,520 --> 00:43:47,080
Speaker 2: would have made though, right if this was my team. Again,

896
00:43:47,120 --> 00:43:49,920
Speaker 2: this is just from my perspective. I knew the minute

897
00:43:50,040 --> 00:43:52,120
Speaker 2: he came out there last year this guy probably was

898
00:43:52,160 --> 00:43:53,839
Speaker 2: not a start in this league. And we talked about it,

899
00:43:53,880 --> 00:43:57,000
Speaker 2: but I viewed it of he could be like a Minshew, Right,

900
00:43:57,000 --> 00:43:58,640
Speaker 2: you can build an offense around if you put the

901
00:43:58,680 --> 00:44:01,440
Speaker 2: right pieces and have him the best anario he's not

902
00:44:01,480 --> 00:44:04,200
Speaker 2: even that. I mean, just watching these first two games

903
00:44:04,560 --> 00:44:08,440
Speaker 2: like he's he just looks so totally lost. So the

904
00:44:08,440 --> 00:44:10,600
Speaker 2: fact that this line moved a point and a half

905
00:44:11,200 --> 00:44:13,720
Speaker 2: or two points at some books, well, they took out

906
00:44:14,080 --> 00:44:16,640
Speaker 2: Bryce Shong will put in Andy Dalton. Who you know,

907
00:44:16,800 --> 00:44:19,640
Speaker 2: Andy Dalton we thought was washed three four years ago,

908
00:44:20,120 --> 00:44:23,640
Speaker 2: and I just think that's incredibly telling to Bryce Young

909
00:44:24,200 --> 00:44:27,640
Speaker 2: and you know, the Panthers. It's a tough pill to swallow.

910
00:44:27,680 --> 00:44:29,160
Speaker 2: But I do think this is the right move unless

911
00:44:29,160 --> 00:44:30,520
Speaker 2: their goal is to get the number one pick. If

912
00:44:30,560 --> 00:44:32,840
Speaker 2: it is, why would you not play Bryce Young the

913
00:44:32,840 --> 00:44:36,600
Speaker 2: rest of the year. But me and you our hesitation here.

914
00:44:36,800 --> 00:44:37,719
Speaker 2: I don't know if you still have it.

915
00:44:37,800 --> 00:44:41,759
Speaker 3: My hesitation is the Panthers defense. That's my wary here.

916
00:44:41,840 --> 00:44:45,760
Speaker 2: Chat is okay, maybe this does have some major fixes

917
00:44:45,800 --> 00:44:51,480
Speaker 2: on this offense. Defensively, what do they have, Like, what

918
00:44:51,600 --> 00:44:53,600
Speaker 2: is the player on their defense that can kind of

919
00:44:53,640 --> 00:44:55,759
Speaker 2: get stops when they need to stop on third down?

920
00:44:55,800 --> 00:44:58,719
Speaker 2: Who is the cornerback they can rely on. I know

921
00:44:58,840 --> 00:45:01,560
Speaker 2: we all thought it was gonna be Joe, but I mean,

922
00:45:02,080 --> 00:45:06,920
Speaker 2: in this system, it doesn't really matter. It's just I

923
00:45:06,960 --> 00:45:08,759
Speaker 2: can't get there with this Panthers team.

924
00:45:08,840 --> 00:45:09,160
Speaker 3: Still.

925
00:45:09,239 --> 00:45:11,440
Speaker 2: I think the Lions moved too much that it was

926
00:45:11,480 --> 00:45:13,960
Speaker 2: Andy Dolton and they still gave us the seven. I

927
00:45:14,000 --> 00:45:16,640
Speaker 2: would have been about it, But now that it's down

928
00:45:16,640 --> 00:45:18,799
Speaker 2: to five, five and a half, it's like you know what,

929
00:45:19,960 --> 00:45:21,799
Speaker 2: I only moved the I only moved a half a point.

930
00:45:21,840 --> 00:45:23,640
Speaker 2: I told you Sunday night I had this number at six.

931
00:45:24,239 --> 00:45:25,959
Speaker 2: I only moved a half the point for Andy Dolton.

932
00:45:25,960 --> 00:45:27,400
Speaker 2: So I've moved it to five and a half. So

933
00:45:27,440 --> 00:45:30,520
Speaker 2: it's like, okay, the value to me, if it's five,

934
00:45:30,640 --> 00:45:32,439
Speaker 2: it's on the Raiders. If it's five and a half,

935
00:45:32,440 --> 00:45:35,160
Speaker 2: it's there is no value. So just not a game

936
00:45:35,160 --> 00:45:39,160
Speaker 2: I'm really excited about. But you know, I get why

937
00:45:39,200 --> 00:45:41,279
Speaker 2: the pros came in really quick and did hit the

938
00:45:41,320 --> 00:45:44,560
Speaker 2: seven because to me, that's a good number of Andy Dolton.

939
00:45:44,600 --> 00:45:46,000
Speaker 2: But at this number, chat, I don't know.

940
00:45:46,040 --> 00:45:47,680
Speaker 3: I'm just not feeling confident in taking it.

941
00:45:47,880 --> 00:45:50,479
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm glad you're taught. You're having us walk away

942
00:45:50,480 --> 00:45:53,120
Speaker 1: from it. We're being disciplined about the five and a

943
00:45:53,160 --> 00:45:55,760
Speaker 1: half and not seeing the value there. To your point,

944
00:45:56,160 --> 00:45:58,880
Speaker 1: they traded away Brian Burns. He's on the Giants now.

945
00:45:59,120 --> 00:46:02,120
Speaker 1: He was their best pass rusher. They still had some

946
00:46:03,280 --> 00:46:08,320
Speaker 1: hope for an interior pass rush with Derek Brown. Derek

947
00:46:08,360 --> 00:46:12,960
Speaker 1: Brown out for the season now because of an injury,

948
00:46:13,320 --> 00:46:17,799
Speaker 1: so this is a real challenge for this team. Their

949
00:46:17,880 --> 00:46:22,240
Speaker 1: pass rush and their pressure is atrocious. Just eight point

950
00:46:22,360 --> 00:46:26,280
Speaker 1: five percent pressure rate on opposing quarterbacks. That's the worst

951
00:46:26,280 --> 00:46:28,799
Speaker 1: in the league. And the secondary really doesn't have anything.

952
00:46:28,840 --> 00:46:30,360
Speaker 2: They just have been We've seen it takes in a

953
00:46:30,440 --> 00:46:32,000
Speaker 2: row though, right Chad, with Minshew, if he has a

954
00:46:32,000 --> 00:46:36,000
Speaker 2: clean pocket, you can move the ball like he has

955
00:46:36,320 --> 00:46:38,960
Speaker 2: tremendous trust right now in Bowers and Devonte Adams. And

956
00:46:39,000 --> 00:46:41,680
Speaker 2: we saw that last game against the Ravens where it

957
00:46:41,680 --> 00:46:43,480
Speaker 2: took them a while to get into a rhythm. But

958
00:46:43,560 --> 00:46:46,120
Speaker 2: once they diget that rhythm that second half, that's a

959
00:46:46,160 --> 00:46:50,200
Speaker 2: really high functioning offense when it's all going smoothly. So yeah,

960
00:46:50,239 --> 00:46:53,640
Speaker 2: it's it's a scary, scary spot. So I want to

961
00:46:53,640 --> 00:46:56,680
Speaker 2: be on the Panthers. But yeah, like Chad said, I agree,

962
00:46:56,680 --> 00:46:58,280
Speaker 2: I think the numbers move too much.

963
00:46:58,560 --> 00:47:03,880
Speaker 1: Ravens now one point favorites at Dallas.

964
00:47:03,560 --> 00:47:10,320
Speaker 6: The Cowboys of Pro Football's glamourgine, Dynamic, progressive, and spectacular.

965
00:47:10,840 --> 00:47:14,080
Speaker 1: Points spread has flipped from Dallas being the favorite to

966
00:47:14,160 --> 00:47:18,160
Speaker 1: Baltimore being the favorite. That's the beatdown the Raiders. The

967
00:47:18,680 --> 00:47:22,120
Speaker 1: Ravens lose to the Raiders at home, and then they

968
00:47:22,200 --> 00:47:24,920
Speaker 1: still get moved to a favorite because that's how bad

969
00:47:25,440 --> 00:47:30,480
Speaker 1: the Cowboys loss was to the Saints. Micah Parsons said,

970
00:47:30,520 --> 00:47:34,840
Speaker 1: it felt like he was in a maze playing against

971
00:47:34,920 --> 00:47:37,080
Speaker 1: that offense. That's how much motion they were using, That's

972
00:47:37,080 --> 00:47:39,920
Speaker 1: how good the Saints were. He just he was lost.

973
00:47:40,040 --> 00:47:45,320
Speaker 1: He literally said he was lost. I think this Ravens

974
00:47:45,400 --> 00:47:48,080
Speaker 1: defense has some problems because then now they've gotten thumped

975
00:47:48,480 --> 00:47:51,480
Speaker 1: two weeks in a row, five twenty plus yard receptions

976
00:47:51,560 --> 00:47:55,479
Speaker 1: last week, ten so far this year the entire season.

977
00:47:55,560 --> 00:47:57,640
Speaker 1: Last year they only gave up forty six, so they

978
00:47:57,680 --> 00:47:59,799
Speaker 1: were allowing two and a half two times more per

979
00:47:59,800 --> 00:48:03,600
Speaker 1: game on average this year. You just have to ask yourself,

980
00:48:03,800 --> 00:48:07,400
Speaker 1: are all the changes on defense, whether it's Mike McDaniels,

981
00:48:07,480 --> 00:48:11,720
Speaker 1: Patrick Queen, other changes in the secondary, is that starting

982
00:48:11,719 --> 00:48:14,480
Speaker 1: to impact the Ravens in a way that is causing

983
00:48:14,560 --> 00:48:18,799
Speaker 1: some serious regression. This is a weird spot for the Ravens.

984
00:48:19,120 --> 00:48:21,040
Speaker 3: Yeah, I told you someday. I was like, hows it think?

985
00:48:21,040 --> 00:48:22,840
Speaker 2: Because I wanted to take Dallas. I just felt like

986
00:48:22,920 --> 00:48:25,200
Speaker 2: that was going to be a nice bilo spot for

987
00:48:25,360 --> 00:48:29,959
Speaker 2: Dallas and the numbers a little telling where the general

988
00:48:30,040 --> 00:48:32,279
Speaker 2: public and a lot of professionals think the values on

989
00:48:32,320 --> 00:48:35,080
Speaker 2: the Ravens and I think it's still probably on Dallas, and.

990
00:48:35,080 --> 00:48:35,799
Speaker 1: I think so too.

991
00:48:36,880 --> 00:48:38,520
Speaker 3: Yeah, I know this is brutal.

992
00:48:38,800 --> 00:48:41,440
Speaker 2: This is a brutal one because we don't feel good

993
00:48:41,440 --> 00:48:44,360
Speaker 2: about it, right, we want to take Lamar in this position.

994
00:48:44,920 --> 00:48:46,120
Speaker 3: But I would say when.

995
00:48:46,040 --> 00:48:48,600
Speaker 2: I talk to professionals, their question about Dallas coming to

996
00:48:48,640 --> 00:48:51,680
Speaker 2: this year was they might have the worst running.

997
00:48:51,360 --> 00:48:52,480
Speaker 3: Back room in all football.

998
00:48:52,719 --> 00:48:56,160
Speaker 2: Right, and again, not that big of a deal through

999
00:48:56,200 --> 00:48:58,080
Speaker 2: two weeks. I mean, I don't think a running back

1000
00:48:58,080 --> 00:49:01,120
Speaker 2: would have saved them in Week one or last week.

1001
00:49:01,600 --> 00:49:05,719
Speaker 2: But man like, there's some major questions here about that

1002
00:49:05,880 --> 00:49:09,640
Speaker 2: Dallas team, not just defensively offensively, but some questions about

1003
00:49:09,640 --> 00:49:12,799
Speaker 2: their running backs. So this is a game I think, Well,

1004
00:49:12,800 --> 00:49:14,719
Speaker 2: when we spend more time on Thursday, I definitely want

1005
00:49:14,719 --> 00:49:16,799
Speaker 2: to break this down more. But as you said here

1006
00:49:16,880 --> 00:49:18,040
Speaker 2: right now, I bet Dallas.

1007
00:49:18,080 --> 00:49:20,480
Speaker 3: I like Dallas. It's probably gonna be a team I'll

1008
00:49:20,520 --> 00:49:21,400
Speaker 3: be on in this matchup.

1009
00:49:21,920 --> 00:49:24,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, I was this close to making it my exec

1010
00:49:25,040 --> 00:49:27,000
Speaker 1: decision just now, the.

1011
00:49:27,000 --> 00:49:30,480
Speaker 3: Same exec decision. Simon says, I hope not. Well.

1012
00:49:30,880 --> 00:49:34,239
Speaker 1: San Francisco La seven and a half. It got up

1013
00:49:34,280 --> 00:49:35,960
Speaker 1: to eight and a half, it got down to seven.

1014
00:49:36,080 --> 00:49:38,839
Speaker 1: Now it's back to seven. And a half at bet three, six, five,

1015
00:49:38,960 --> 00:49:43,399
Speaker 1: everywhere else it's a seven. So look, this Rams team

1016
00:49:43,480 --> 00:49:46,799
Speaker 1: is decimated by injuries. The defense just got trashed. The

1017
00:49:46,880 --> 00:49:50,040
Speaker 1: offense couldn't move the ball. Nine ers historically beating them

1018
00:49:50,080 --> 00:49:52,239
Speaker 1: at home. They need a bounce back. But Deebo's not

1019
00:49:52,320 --> 00:49:56,400
Speaker 1: playing Like I know, the Rams are the side in

1020
00:49:56,520 --> 00:50:01,799
Speaker 1: terms of the trends, but it feels like we don't

1021
00:50:01,800 --> 00:50:04,080
Speaker 1: know enough about this game and these teams right now.

1022
00:50:05,400 --> 00:50:07,759
Speaker 2: No, And that's the worst part is like you just

1023
00:50:07,840 --> 00:50:10,040
Speaker 2: had the trends wank. We want to take the Rams.

1024
00:50:10,760 --> 00:50:13,880
Speaker 2: Everything on field makes you want to fade them so hard.

1025
00:50:14,080 --> 00:50:16,560
Speaker 2: They have they have nothing in the Rams. They have

1026
00:50:17,520 --> 00:50:20,240
Speaker 2: no offensive line now, they have no weapons on the outside,

1027
00:50:20,239 --> 00:50:22,200
Speaker 2: no game change, I should say, right, because that Matthew

1028
00:50:22,239 --> 00:50:24,840
Speaker 2: Stafford can turn anybody into a weapon on the outside,

1029
00:50:24,840 --> 00:50:27,200
Speaker 2: but just no one that's going to consistently win their

1030
00:50:27,239 --> 00:50:29,880
Speaker 2: one on one matchups, which he needs. He needs that

1031
00:50:29,960 --> 00:50:32,600
Speaker 2: safety blanket on third down. That's what made so special

1032
00:50:32,920 --> 00:50:35,839
Speaker 2: with Cooper Cup when he was out, Kuku Nakua filled

1033
00:50:35,840 --> 00:50:38,319
Speaker 2: that role of being his guys go to on third down.

1034
00:50:38,440 --> 00:50:42,840
Speaker 2: So it's all so bad for this Rams team. Chad,

1035
00:50:43,000 --> 00:50:46,799
Speaker 2: where I think they're begging us, begging us to take

1036
00:50:46,920 --> 00:50:47,920
Speaker 2: the plus seven and a half.

1037
00:50:48,000 --> 00:50:49,200
Speaker 3: That's why they have it up there.

1038
00:50:50,800 --> 00:50:53,320
Speaker 2: I'll wait a couple of books keep showing seven to

1039
00:50:53,320 --> 00:50:56,480
Speaker 2: the forty nine ers. I'll take the seven. But it's

1040
00:50:56,520 --> 00:50:58,440
Speaker 2: another game where like if it's seven and a half,

1041
00:50:58,520 --> 00:51:00,680
Speaker 2: I mean, I mean, you're really gonna put in Chad

1042
00:51:00,719 --> 00:51:03,239
Speaker 2: like that's we just got burned so bad by trying

1043
00:51:03,280 --> 00:51:04,840
Speaker 2: to do that last week. So that's gonna be a

1044
00:51:04,840 --> 00:51:06,400
Speaker 2: tough one to swallow. Where there's a couple of dogs

1045
00:51:06,400 --> 00:51:08,960
Speaker 2: I like a little more. But yeah, as far as

1046
00:51:09,000 --> 00:51:11,239
Speaker 2: big favorites go, this might be the only one I

1047
00:51:11,320 --> 00:51:13,080
Speaker 2: like this week, and that's the forty nine ers.

1048
00:51:13,360 --> 00:51:17,480
Speaker 1: We have so many games that we're carrying over into

1049
00:51:17,520 --> 00:51:22,800
Speaker 1: Thursday because we're still waiting to see how the markets.

1050
00:51:22,400 --> 00:51:24,879
Speaker 3: Move in injury reports. I mean I was gonna say

1051
00:51:24,880 --> 00:51:25,760
Speaker 3: about doing Tuesdays.

1052
00:51:25,840 --> 00:51:27,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, we're waiting for the injury reports. I mean, I'm

1053
00:51:27,680 --> 00:51:29,719
Speaker 1: glad we'll get some sharp calls over the next forty

1054
00:51:29,719 --> 00:51:33,000
Speaker 1: eight hours or be able to narrow down. I've barely

1055
00:51:33,000 --> 00:51:35,920
Speaker 1: made any bets so far, you know, just because I

1056
00:51:35,960 --> 00:51:38,399
Speaker 1: missed some pretty big numbers and I want to be

1057
00:51:38,480 --> 00:51:42,440
Speaker 1: thoughtful and Detroit at Arizona. I feel like you have

1058
00:51:42,440 --> 00:51:44,960
Speaker 1: a strong opinion on this game. I have no feel

1059
00:51:45,000 --> 00:51:45,480
Speaker 1: for this one.

1060
00:51:47,360 --> 00:51:47,800
Speaker 3: Yeah.

1061
00:51:47,920 --> 00:51:50,520
Speaker 2: I like Arizona. I like the way they're playing. On

1062
00:51:50,560 --> 00:51:53,440
Speaker 2: the opposite side, Detroit, they've now looked in sync and

1063
00:51:53,480 --> 00:51:55,839
Speaker 2: rhythm in two weeks. Even against that Rams team, which

1064
00:51:55,840 --> 00:51:57,839
Speaker 2: we just talked about as all those injuries all banged up,

1065
00:51:58,280 --> 00:52:00,320
Speaker 2: they took them to ot. I mean that that was

1066
00:52:00,400 --> 00:52:02,279
Speaker 2: right there for the Rams and win that game. So

1067
00:52:03,280 --> 00:52:06,920
Speaker 2: I major questions about Detroit. Where Arizona. I mean, you

1068
00:52:06,960 --> 00:52:09,080
Speaker 2: look back on it, that was probably the best loss

1069
00:52:09,080 --> 00:52:11,120
Speaker 2: of the season, right that game against the Bills. Like

1070
00:52:11,160 --> 00:52:13,600
Speaker 2: they were in that game, they followed up with it

1071
00:52:13,719 --> 00:52:16,160
Speaker 2: just a dominant performance against the Rams. I think it

1072
00:52:16,200 --> 00:52:19,680
Speaker 2: was the highest QBR game for a quarterback. And I

1073
00:52:19,680 --> 00:52:21,919
Speaker 2: don't know two or three years what we saw Kyler

1074
00:52:22,000 --> 00:52:24,839
Speaker 2: Murray do. And I love Marvi Harris's quote after the game.

1075
00:52:24,880 --> 00:52:27,120
Speaker 2: They were like, oh, you had this amazing game four

1076
00:52:27,200 --> 00:52:29,399
Speaker 2: for one thirty and he said, well, I just saw

1077
00:52:29,520 --> 00:52:32,600
Speaker 2: the stat bocks and Kyler had foreign completions. Those foreign

1078
00:52:32,640 --> 00:52:35,080
Speaker 2: completions were to me, so I need to get better.

1079
00:52:35,120 --> 00:52:37,279
Speaker 2: And it's like that's what I want to hear from

1080
00:52:37,280 --> 00:52:39,959
Speaker 2: a first year player that just had a career game

1081
00:52:40,040 --> 00:52:42,680
Speaker 2: right over one hundred thirty yards of two touchdowns. Most

1082
00:52:42,719 --> 00:52:45,560
Speaker 2: young rookies are just drinking that in where he's kind

1083
00:52:45,600 --> 00:52:46,600
Speaker 2: of just trying to get better.

1084
00:52:46,719 --> 00:52:49,399
Speaker 3: So I love all of the Arizona like I love

1085
00:52:49,440 --> 00:52:50,120
Speaker 3: them coming to the year.

1086
00:52:50,120 --> 00:52:52,120
Speaker 2: Maybe I'm getting drinking the cool ay too much because

1087
00:52:52,440 --> 00:52:54,440
Speaker 2: they're the other side of it, right, Chad. They are

1088
00:52:54,640 --> 00:52:58,600
Speaker 2: two and zero against the spread. Usually I don't buy

1089
00:52:58,640 --> 00:53:00,479
Speaker 2: heavy because they've kind of over at at that point.

1090
00:53:00,640 --> 00:53:02,440
Speaker 2: The markets kind of adjusted too much to them and

1091
00:53:02,440 --> 00:53:03,560
Speaker 2: they're a little overvalued.

1092
00:53:04,000 --> 00:53:04,920
Speaker 3: It's only moved half.

1093
00:53:04,800 --> 00:53:06,319
Speaker 2: A point, right, it was three and a half, it's

1094
00:53:06,360 --> 00:53:09,040
Speaker 2: down to three. The books are getting nice two way

1095
00:53:09,040 --> 00:53:11,600
Speaker 2: action on this one. So I think the general public

1096
00:53:11,640 --> 00:53:14,560
Speaker 2: still thinks this is the better team in Detroit, which

1097
00:53:14,800 --> 00:53:16,440
Speaker 2: I think we all agree, right Chad. They have a

1098
00:53:16,440 --> 00:53:19,400
Speaker 2: better offense and defense. Yeah, yeah, there is a reason

1099
00:53:19,440 --> 00:53:21,479
Speaker 2: two back Detroit here. I get why people are taking

1100
00:53:21,480 --> 00:53:23,800
Speaker 2: the minus three minus three and a half on this

1101
00:53:23,920 --> 00:53:24,640
Speaker 2: Detroit team.

1102
00:53:25,239 --> 00:53:26,719
Speaker 3: I just viewed it as Arizona is.

1103
00:53:26,719 --> 00:53:28,640
Speaker 2: Always gonna have us in this game, Shad, Like we've

1104
00:53:28,640 --> 00:53:31,560
Speaker 2: seen it from this secondary of Detroit. They haven't fixed

1105
00:53:31,600 --> 00:53:34,160
Speaker 2: all their issues despite spending money going out getting guys

1106
00:53:34,160 --> 00:53:36,839
Speaker 2: and through the draft, there are still ways you can

1107
00:53:36,920 --> 00:53:40,360
Speaker 2: attack this Detroit secondary. So I agree with everyone Detroit

1108
00:53:40,480 --> 00:53:43,040
Speaker 2: is a better team if this was week eleven, week twelve.

1109
00:53:43,480 --> 00:53:45,359
Speaker 2: Once Detroit figures it all out and they get a rhythm,

1110
00:53:45,400 --> 00:53:48,040
Speaker 2: I probably would back them here. At this point in

1111
00:53:48,040 --> 00:53:51,080
Speaker 2: the season, Arizona to me, looks more in sync, confident

1112
00:53:51,120 --> 00:53:53,840
Speaker 2: what they're gonna do on offense than the Detroit So

1113
00:53:54,560 --> 00:53:56,319
Speaker 2: I'll take the plus three with Arizona here.

1114
00:53:56,760 --> 00:53:59,520
Speaker 1: If the Lions can't get right against this defense and

1115
00:53:59,600 --> 00:54:03,080
Speaker 1: this second Andy, then we've got much bigger problems than

1116
00:54:03,600 --> 00:54:05,800
Speaker 1: how are we betting in the lines as favorites every week.

1117
00:54:06,200 --> 00:54:09,400
Speaker 1: That's my hesitation. Feels like it would be an aggressive

1118
00:54:09,960 --> 00:54:15,040
Speaker 1: contest play, very aggressive contest play. Although it's possible we're

1119
00:54:15,040 --> 00:54:19,800
Speaker 1: still gonna make aggressive contest plays because we got a

1120
00:54:19,840 --> 00:54:24,120
Speaker 1: couple of games still left to talk about. Sunday Night

1121
00:54:24,160 --> 00:54:28,000
Speaker 1: Football Kansas City at Atlanta. Atlanta is three and a

1122
00:54:28,040 --> 00:54:36,360
Speaker 1: half point underdog. Would would Better's love a last second miracle.

1123
00:54:36,840 --> 00:54:39,359
Speaker 1: This line was four and a half Monday afternoon. It's

1124
00:54:39,400 --> 00:54:42,880
Speaker 1: three and a half now. Isaiah Pacheco was out. Have

1125
00:54:43,000 --> 00:54:46,839
Speaker 1: the Falcons found themselves? I feel like I know which

1126
00:54:46,840 --> 00:54:50,120
Speaker 1: way you're leaning. I'm kind of hoping it goes a

1127
00:54:50,160 --> 00:54:52,320
Speaker 1: little bit lower, so I can bet Patrick Mahomes.

1128
00:54:53,040 --> 00:54:55,000
Speaker 2: Well, I'm gonna make this, Simon says, just in case

1129
00:54:55,000 --> 00:54:57,680
Speaker 2: of Oh my god, says plus.

1130
00:54:57,280 --> 00:54:59,719
Speaker 3: Three and a half for Atlanta. Give it to me.

1131
00:55:00,120 --> 00:55:04,520
Speaker 3: When Simon, we do, say.

1132
00:55:04,840 --> 00:55:07,600
Speaker 2: I love the number. I'm with you, right. That was

1133
00:55:07,640 --> 00:55:10,799
Speaker 2: a miracle comeback win. But I look at this Chiefs team.

1134
00:55:10,920 --> 00:55:13,160
Speaker 2: They kind of had the same thing. They stole one

1135
00:55:13,320 --> 00:55:17,440
Speaker 2: against that Cincinnati team, and through two weeks you see

1136
00:55:17,440 --> 00:55:20,080
Speaker 2: that there are some struggles to this Kansas City offense,

1137
00:55:20,200 --> 00:55:24,240
Speaker 2: not just from Patrick Mahomes, which you know right now

1138
00:55:24,480 --> 00:55:27,200
Speaker 2: he's playing like a bottom fifteen quarterback. If you go

1139
00:55:27,239 --> 00:55:29,760
Speaker 2: look at all the numbers, he is not playing well.

1140
00:55:30,239 --> 00:55:32,640
Speaker 2: And you know me and you talked earlier.

1141
00:55:32,239 --> 00:55:35,319
Speaker 1: Right now, Simon, he's not even the best quarterback in

1142
00:55:35,400 --> 00:55:39,960
Speaker 1: his division. Gardner Minshew is the only quarterback throwing for

1143
00:55:40,080 --> 00:55:42,080
Speaker 1: more than two hundred and fifty yards. I'm telling you

1144
00:55:42,200 --> 00:55:43,160
Speaker 1: for two weeks.

1145
00:55:45,400 --> 00:55:48,440
Speaker 2: But yeah, the fact that they benched their left tackle

1146
00:55:48,640 --> 00:55:50,880
Speaker 2: and put in the backup and he struggled as well.

1147
00:55:51,640 --> 00:55:54,520
Speaker 2: Is pretty terrifying because we talked about that front for

1148
00:55:54,560 --> 00:55:57,600
Speaker 2: the Bengals. They lost some guys, right, I mean DJ

1149
00:55:57,760 --> 00:56:00,359
Speaker 2: Reader left that team and they still yeah, get him

1150
00:56:00,360 --> 00:56:03,360
Speaker 2: push and you know the Bengals defense, and I know

1151
00:56:03,400 --> 00:56:06,040
Speaker 2: Doctor Nicks talked about a lot the Bengals might have

1152
00:56:06,040 --> 00:56:09,120
Speaker 2: a bottom ten defense, like that's a very young defense

1153
00:56:09,280 --> 00:56:12,839
Speaker 2: in Cincinnati, and they really did dominate that Chiefs team

1154
00:56:12,840 --> 00:56:15,120
Speaker 2: in that game. I mean you take away you know

1155
00:56:15,200 --> 00:56:17,520
Speaker 2: the calls by the refs and that's seven that gave

1156
00:56:17,600 --> 00:56:20,320
Speaker 2: up on the Bengals fumble by Joe Burrow.

1157
00:56:21,000 --> 00:56:22,160
Speaker 3: It's like they get rolled.

1158
00:56:22,400 --> 00:56:26,440
Speaker 2: So this Atlanta team, you know what they might struggle

1159
00:56:26,440 --> 00:56:29,440
Speaker 2: with on offense is really strong outside pass rushers.

1160
00:56:29,920 --> 00:56:32,319
Speaker 3: We saw in that Eagles game. You know Kirk he

1161
00:56:32,360 --> 00:56:33,960
Speaker 3: can still move in the pocket. Well.

1162
00:56:34,000 --> 00:56:35,799
Speaker 2: He the only guy in the Eagles that gave them

1163
00:56:35,800 --> 00:56:37,560
Speaker 2: any type of fits was Jalen Carter. The rest of

1164
00:56:37,560 --> 00:56:41,080
Speaker 2: the Egles defensive line is this terrible non existent. So

1165
00:56:41,680 --> 00:56:43,480
Speaker 2: he kind of knew that if he's pushing up the

1166
00:56:43,560 --> 00:56:46,520
Speaker 2: left side, I'll just step right around it. And then

1167
00:56:46,560 --> 00:56:48,200
Speaker 2: the same thing happened when would go up the left side.

1168
00:56:48,200 --> 00:56:50,400
Speaker 2: He's like I'll just step right around and just there

1169
00:56:50,440 --> 00:56:52,160
Speaker 2: was a rhythm to what Kirk was doing where we

1170
00:56:52,160 --> 00:56:55,080
Speaker 2: didn't really see that in week went against Pittsburgh. Obviously

1171
00:56:55,080 --> 00:56:57,480
Speaker 2: got a little bit more confident in pushing off that

1172
00:56:57,600 --> 00:57:01,279
Speaker 2: back leg. So yeah, from my view of this Atlanta team,

1173
00:57:02,000 --> 00:57:04,280
Speaker 2: Chad's right like, if you want to do bet the Chiefs,

1174
00:57:04,920 --> 00:57:06,400
Speaker 2: it might get there for you might be able to

1175
00:57:06,400 --> 00:57:07,839
Speaker 2: get to two and a half, maybe we'll go down

1176
00:57:07,880 --> 00:57:10,560
Speaker 2: to three. I'm just gonna grab it right now for

1177
00:57:10,600 --> 00:57:12,759
Speaker 2: Atlanta because I do think the profession's gonna keep coming

1178
00:57:12,760 --> 00:57:15,560
Speaker 2: on this side. So looking the action app right now,

1179
00:57:16,040 --> 00:57:18,040
Speaker 2: seventy percent of the bet sentie percent of the money

1180
00:57:18,080 --> 00:57:20,840
Speaker 2: is on the chief So yeah, obviously it's been pretty

1181
00:57:20,840 --> 00:57:22,760
Speaker 2: heavy professional money moving.

1182
00:57:22,560 --> 00:57:23,600
Speaker 3: This down for four and a half.

1183
00:57:25,200 --> 00:57:27,280
Speaker 1: I don't want to take that hook with Atlanta. I

1184
00:57:27,320 --> 00:57:31,160
Speaker 1: don't want to be like over influenced by what I

1185
00:57:31,240 --> 00:57:34,480
Speaker 1: saw last night, at least until I fell asleep.

1186
00:57:34,680 --> 00:57:36,320
Speaker 2: I don't think it moved off last night. I think

1187
00:57:36,320 --> 00:57:39,120
Speaker 2: it moved off. But checkoll injury, honestly, you do. He's

1188
00:57:39,120 --> 00:57:41,960
Speaker 2: such a big piece of that offense. Now, you know,

1189
00:57:42,080 --> 00:57:43,160
Speaker 2: Travis Kelcey.

1190
00:57:42,960 --> 00:57:44,200
Speaker 3: Is non existent this season.

1191
00:57:44,480 --> 00:57:46,360
Speaker 2: He's just in the different phase of his Speers right

1192
00:57:46,440 --> 00:57:50,840
Speaker 2: means you're depending on Rice and Worthy, two very young receivers.

1193
00:57:51,160 --> 00:57:52,520
Speaker 2: This is the time of year you want to play

1194
00:57:52,520 --> 00:57:54,080
Speaker 2: the Chiefs right now, they don't know who the hell

1195
00:57:54,120 --> 00:57:57,000
Speaker 2: their left tackle is, and other than Rice, they don't

1196
00:57:57,000 --> 00:57:59,480
Speaker 2: know who their their second option is. It's it's there's

1197
00:57:59,520 --> 00:58:01,440
Speaker 2: a there's some questions right now with this Chiefs team

1198
00:58:01,480 --> 00:58:02,640
Speaker 2: that I think we can take advantage of.

1199
00:58:02,720 --> 00:58:07,640
Speaker 1: Chef Okay, Monday Night Football, Jacksonville at Buffalo.

1200
00:58:08,240 --> 00:58:11,600
Speaker 6: A generation of kids had seen Lake Cary freeze over

1201
00:58:11,960 --> 00:58:15,240
Speaker 6: that they had never seen their Buffalo Bills defeat the

1202
00:58:15,240 --> 00:58:16,360
Speaker 6: Miami Dophins.

1203
00:58:17,240 --> 00:58:22,760
Speaker 1: Buffalo is a five and a half point favorite. Jags

1204
00:58:22,800 --> 00:58:25,800
Speaker 1: are zero to two according to ESPNS, FBI and the

1205
00:58:25,840 --> 00:58:30,680
Speaker 1: Bill Barnwell Column, twenty three percent chance to make the playoffs.

1206
00:58:31,360 --> 00:58:36,320
Speaker 1: You and I Simon have struggled with Trevor. Lawrence did

1207
00:58:36,360 --> 00:58:38,360
Speaker 1: not go the direction we thought it would go in

1208
00:58:38,800 --> 00:58:41,480
Speaker 1: year three. He's not got this huge contractor, and you

1209
00:58:41,520 --> 00:58:46,120
Speaker 1: and I have been struggling to identify statistically what we

1210
00:58:46,200 --> 00:58:49,480
Speaker 1: see on the field, which is he's not great in

1211
00:58:49,520 --> 00:58:52,520
Speaker 1: the red zone, he doesn't have great touch, he's not

1212
00:58:52,920 --> 00:58:57,520
Speaker 1: very accurate. The chemistry between him and Doug Peterson still

1213
00:58:57,680 --> 00:59:01,720
Speaker 1: isn't fantastic the way we want it to be. Barnlow

1214
00:59:01,720 --> 00:59:04,520
Speaker 1: pointed this out in his column in the Quick Passing Game,

1215
00:59:04,840 --> 00:59:07,160
Speaker 1: which is throws under two and a half seconds, which

1216
00:59:07,280 --> 00:59:11,600
Speaker 1: Doug Peterson loves. Trevor Lawrence's completion percentage is last in

1217
00:59:11,640 --> 00:59:15,320
Speaker 1: the league on these throws. His four point four yards

1218
00:59:15,320 --> 00:59:18,160
Speaker 1: per attempt is thirtieth. You know, he's ahead of Bryce

1219
00:59:18,240 --> 00:59:22,720
Speaker 1: Young and Will Levis Jeez in the red zone. Twenty

1220
00:59:22,720 --> 00:59:27,560
Speaker 1: eighth in expected points last year, twenty ninth so far

1221
00:59:28,160 --> 00:59:33,000
Speaker 1: this year. This brings statistical evidence to everything we've been

1222
00:59:33,040 --> 00:59:39,760
Speaker 1: saying about Trevor Lawrence and yet and yet Simon, Yeah,

1223
00:59:40,240 --> 00:59:41,960
Speaker 1: I got a bet the Jackson, and I'm making it

1224
00:59:42,040 --> 00:59:42,840
Speaker 1: my exact decision.

1225
00:59:43,080 --> 00:59:48,000
Speaker 6: Oh god, the choice between the unthinkable and the impossible.

1226
00:59:48,160 --> 00:59:52,360
Speaker 6: Are you have your honor's text to cute number executive decision?

1227
00:59:53,280 --> 00:59:55,400
Speaker 2: Yeah, this is we're supposed to play this number and

1228
00:59:55,440 --> 00:59:57,600
Speaker 2: play this spot, So I have it three and a half.

1229
00:59:57,720 --> 00:59:59,840
Speaker 3: We're getting two points of value on this Jaguars team.

1230
01:00:00,080 --> 01:00:01,240
Speaker 3: I mean, it's awful, though.

1231
01:00:01,280 --> 01:00:03,840
Speaker 2: This is gonna be an awful experience going against you know,

1232
01:00:03,960 --> 01:00:06,080
Speaker 2: Josh Allen who's playing as if he's the MVP of

1233
01:00:06,120 --> 01:00:07,560
Speaker 2: the league right now, which I mean.

1234
01:00:07,400 --> 01:00:09,920
Speaker 3: He's looked that way through two weeks. He's played the best.

1235
01:00:10,200 --> 01:00:12,920
Speaker 2: This is tough, Chet, I can't believe you make it exact,

1236
01:00:12,920 --> 01:00:14,600
Speaker 2: but this is the kind of bets we need to make, right.

1237
01:00:14,640 --> 01:00:16,960
Speaker 3: These are gross bets, the gross bets.

1238
01:00:16,960 --> 01:00:19,360
Speaker 1: We got to get back to who we are of

1239
01:00:19,440 --> 01:00:25,240
Speaker 1: trying to like lean into the shorter numbers with the

1240
01:00:25,280 --> 01:00:29,000
Speaker 1: teams that like have the quarterbacks. I believe in against

1241
01:00:29,000 --> 01:00:31,440
Speaker 1: the teams with the quarterbacks, I don't. The truth is,

1242
01:00:31,960 --> 01:00:35,040
Speaker 1: I still need to believe Trevor Lawrence is good. I

1243
01:00:35,080 --> 01:00:38,280
Speaker 1: think he is has a good chance to get better

1244
01:00:38,760 --> 01:00:41,760
Speaker 1: against the Bills when it is a really when it

1245
01:00:41,840 --> 01:00:45,320
Speaker 1: is a decent sized number, this is a big luck

1246
01:00:45,400 --> 01:00:49,720
Speaker 1: rankings game. If you look at both the Browns game

1247
01:00:49,880 --> 01:00:54,520
Speaker 1: and the Dolphins game, especially the Dolphins game, the Jats

1248
01:00:54,600 --> 01:00:56,720
Speaker 1: could be one in one, right, and we're having a

1249
01:00:56,720 --> 01:01:02,160
Speaker 1: different conversation, So there's there's a chance he's gonna put

1250
01:01:02,240 --> 01:01:03,240
Speaker 1: himself in a better spot.

1251
01:01:03,760 --> 01:01:05,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, and you're also just playing the numbers here. We

1252
01:01:06,120 --> 01:01:08,320
Speaker 2: know we're getting value here. We can't let the Josh

1253
01:01:08,360 --> 01:01:11,760
Speaker 2: Allen effects scare us off and this is gonna be brutal.

1254
01:01:11,960 --> 01:01:14,400
Speaker 2: It's gonna be brutal, and we come in on Tuesday

1255
01:01:14,400 --> 01:01:16,479
Speaker 2: if we don't hit this one. But I do agree

1256
01:01:16,520 --> 01:01:19,040
Speaker 2: with Chad, like this is a good number. This is

1257
01:01:19,400 --> 01:01:21,800
Speaker 2: as low as it can get. It feels like for

1258
01:01:21,880 --> 01:01:24,280
Speaker 2: this Jaguars team being oh and to this season, they

1259
01:01:24,320 --> 01:01:27,280
Speaker 2: go zero to three. Obviously the season is over, So

1260
01:01:27,840 --> 01:01:30,080
Speaker 2: I'm with you. I like the desperate team here against

1261
01:01:30,480 --> 01:01:33,320
Speaker 2: the Bills on long rest, coming off a huge win

1262
01:01:33,400 --> 01:01:36,520
Speaker 2: against a divisional opponent. You know, it's just the classic

1263
01:01:36,600 --> 01:01:39,280
Speaker 2: letdown spot for this Bill's team historically.

1264
01:01:39,200 --> 01:01:42,000
Speaker 1: And their defense is still not very good. Kyler lit

1265
01:01:42,040 --> 01:01:44,800
Speaker 1: him up. They won that game big against the Dolphins,

1266
01:01:44,840 --> 01:01:48,560
Speaker 1: but also because Tua didn't play the whole game, and like,

1267
01:01:49,160 --> 01:01:52,040
Speaker 1: there's some issues here on this defense that you know,

1268
01:01:52,320 --> 01:01:55,160
Speaker 1: cross our fingers. Now, the Jazz can take advantage. The

1269
01:01:55,200 --> 01:01:58,360
Speaker 1: second game on Monday night, Washington and Cincinnati. Cincinnati is

1270
01:01:58,360 --> 01:02:00,160
Speaker 1: an eight point favorite. I actually have no and you

1271
01:02:00,240 --> 01:02:02,320
Speaker 1: know this game at all right now. I mean, it's

1272
01:02:02,360 --> 01:02:05,400
Speaker 1: a big number, so we'd probably want to lean Washington,

1273
01:02:05,520 --> 01:02:08,840
Speaker 1: But yeah, I don't have a strong theory on it.

1274
01:02:09,840 --> 01:02:13,120
Speaker 2: Same thing if I was still alive in the Survivor contest,

1275
01:02:13,200 --> 01:02:15,120
Speaker 2: and I hadn't used the Bengals, I probably would use

1276
01:02:15,200 --> 01:02:17,800
Speaker 2: them here. It's a nice spot for a team that's

1277
01:02:17,800 --> 01:02:20,000
Speaker 2: owing two to finally get their first win at home

1278
01:02:20,080 --> 01:02:23,920
Speaker 2: against a Washington team that, yeah, they're fun, they're exciting,

1279
01:02:24,000 --> 01:02:26,960
Speaker 2: but you know they just won a game without scoring

1280
01:02:26,960 --> 01:02:31,400
Speaker 2: a touchdown, like they're just all around they're bad, right.

1281
01:02:31,440 --> 01:02:33,400
Speaker 2: I think we've seen that with Jay and Daniels is

1282
01:02:34,160 --> 01:02:36,080
Speaker 2: a kid that is not going to last the whole season,

1283
01:02:36,160 --> 01:02:37,840
Speaker 2: even on a bunch of those runs against the Giants,

1284
01:02:37,960 --> 01:02:41,960
Speaker 2: mistakes on this unnecessary hit. So if you with whatever

1285
01:02:42,000 --> 01:02:43,560
Speaker 2: side you're on here, I don't really have an opinion

1286
01:02:43,560 --> 01:02:46,200
Speaker 2: either on with Chad, I lean towards the Bengals, but

1287
01:02:46,200 --> 01:02:48,280
Speaker 2: I haven't bet this one at all.

1288
01:02:48,480 --> 01:02:52,560
Speaker 1: Simon. We have about seven, eight, nine, ten games that

1289
01:02:52,600 --> 01:02:55,040
Speaker 1: we want to probably review on Thursday and narrow down

1290
01:02:55,040 --> 01:02:58,680
Speaker 1: to our final five. The good news is the list

1291
01:02:58,760 --> 01:03:01,840
Speaker 1: of quarterbacks of this game in this in this list

1292
01:03:02,400 --> 01:03:07,160
Speaker 1: and the number of ugly dogs that we have, We're

1293
01:03:07,160 --> 01:03:11,120
Speaker 1: getting back to the basics. None of this bullshit. Jared Goff,

1294
01:03:11,240 --> 01:03:17,040
Speaker 1: Dak Prescott, brock Purty shot. We got Bonnicks, we got

1295
01:03:17,160 --> 01:03:21,280
Speaker 1: Will Levis. We got Daniel Jones, we got a hobbled

1296
01:03:21,400 --> 01:03:24,360
Speaker 1: Kirk Cousins. We got Trevor Lawrence, who hasn't won a

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Speaker 1: game in like three hundred days, like Skyler Town.

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Speaker 3: Come on, our one favorite might be Will Levis.

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Speaker 1: Like now we're getting back to it. We're getting back

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Speaker 1: to who we are. Five and now around the corner here, buddy,

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Speaker 1: with our next episode of the Favorites on the Action

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Speaker 1: Network YouTube page Thursday, eleven am Eastern to cover our

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Speaker 1: get your pods, rate review, subscribe, leave us five stars,

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Speaker 1: say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift until next time.

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