Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio, news, single best idea, a longer,
Speaker 1: single best idea. The greatest point of debate today was
Speaker 1: Everybody's Business is a fabulous podcast. Subscribe to Everybody's Business.
Speaker 1: Mac Chafkin and Stacey Vannick Smith. This is nurturing. It's
Speaker 1: a year old. It's like a hip or younger kind
Speaker 1: of not lighter that doesn't get it, but just a
Speaker 1: more aggressive, accessible view of all the mumbo jumbo we
Speaker 1: talked about. Max and Stacy are killing it. Look to
Speaker 1: Everybody's Business. But they were talking and they have this
Speaker 1: raging debate over how long a podcast should be. There's
Speaker 1: so much newsflow. This should be a one hour, single
Speaker 1: best idea. We're going to try to keep it under
Speaker 1: four minutes today. What a great Jobs Day show, Claudia,
Speaker 1: Sam will get to thank you so much for joining earlier. First, Neil,
Speaker 1: I'm much. I'm doing LinkedIn. I'm looking through the thing
Speaker 1: and this chart screams at me and I know it's
Speaker 1: the beverage curve. The beverage curve is William Beverage out
Speaker 1: of the London School of Economics, like your grandfather's time
Speaker 1: or your great grandfather's time, I should say, and it's
Speaker 1: basically the ratio of unemployment, the movement of unemployment versus
Speaker 1: job openings. It has a lot of information in it,
Speaker 1: and Neil Dutta says, look, we're in a trend, and
Speaker 1: the trend is towards a more difficult jobs market. Neil
Speaker 1: Dudda of RENMEC.
Speaker 2: We've more than normalized. I mean, if you go back
Speaker 2: a couple of years ago to what Christopher Waller was saying,
Speaker 2: remember that he basically posited that, you know, you could
Speaker 2: have a sort of tightening monetary policy without much of
Speaker 2: an increase in unemployment because they're operating along a point
Speaker 2: in that beverage curve where you would see a big
Speaker 2: decline in job openings without much of an increase in unemployment.
Speaker 2: He was right, but he basically said that when you
Speaker 2: get to a certain point on job openings, if you
Speaker 2: see any further decline in sort of excess labor demand
Speaker 2: in this case brought to you by job openings, that
Speaker 2: would lead to more outsized increases in the unemployment rate.
Speaker 1: Neil done it. They're the one thing I would say here,
Speaker 1: and I have not read many reports yet. We're doing
Speaker 1: the show just before this taping. But I think what
Speaker 1: you're going to see here is a lot of positive
Speaker 1: construct on the labor economy, And without looking at any
Speaker 1: of the data, I still think what has changed in
Speaker 1: America is immigration. And this goes back to Angus Madison
Speaker 1: and just immigration and headcount matter within this analysis. And
Speaker 1: I'm putting a big asterisk by all the stuff because
Speaker 1: I don't understand you forget about the political debate what
Speaker 1: President Trump has done from President Biden on immigration and
Speaker 1: that pass forward as well. So I tell you, folks,
Speaker 1: I really take the media certitude of this with a
Speaker 1: real grainness. I love Neil Dudes's skepticism anchoring our broadcast.
Speaker 1: Claudia Sam She's definitive with the Michigan credibility that she has.
Speaker 1: She's changed American economics with the some rule with a
Speaker 1: wonderful call last year to forget about a recession. She
Speaker 1: did that quite well. Claudiasm today from sixty thousand feet
Speaker 1: on how AI folds into our labor economy.
Speaker 3: Any of these conversations about hey, how AI is going
Speaker 3: to reshape the labor market? These are really looking forward, right.
Speaker 3: We've already seen a pretty remarkable step down in the
Speaker 3: labor share. This has happened over recent decades, but we're
Speaker 3: seeing it again this year. And as you mentioned in
Speaker 3: the third quarter that you know, blockbuster productivity number workers
Speaker 3: didn't share in that right, the labor shares down as
Speaker 3: at the lowest level in post World War two history.
Speaker 3: And this is before we've really seen any of the
Speaker 3: you know AI have like a big picture effect on
Speaker 3: the labor market. So yeah, no, this is a real,
Speaker 3: real issue.
Speaker 1: Claudia Sam there, New Century Advisors. What a great week
Speaker 1: it really felt, folks, like the first week of the
Speaker 1: new year. I mean, I can't I think it was
Speaker 1: yesterday or the day before. Really was like, okay, everybody's back,
Speaker 1: everybody's in meetings, let's go, let's go. It doesn't start
Speaker 1: January second or third. It takes, you know, a week
Speaker 1: or so, and we're there right now. We'll move forward.
Speaker 1: Look at Joe Matthew balance a power Joe Matthew just
Speaker 1: dealing with all of the news flow out of Washington.
Speaker 1: Just an extraordinary burden there. And we'll be with you
Speaker 1: next week. I'm Bloomberg Surveillance. We're in a podcast on Apple,
Speaker 1: on Spotify and YouTube podcasts. It's single best idea,