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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio, news, single best idea, a longer,

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Speaker 1: single best idea. The greatest point of debate today was

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Speaker 1: Everybody's Business is a fabulous podcast. Subscribe to Everybody's Business.

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Speaker 1: Mac Chafkin and Stacey Vannick Smith. This is nurturing. It's

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Speaker 1: a year old. It's like a hip or younger kind

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Speaker 1: of not lighter that doesn't get it, but just a

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Speaker 1: more aggressive, accessible view of all the mumbo jumbo we

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Speaker 1: talked about. Max and Stacy are killing it. Look to

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Speaker 1: Everybody's Business. But they were talking and they have this

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Speaker 1: raging debate over how long a podcast should be. There's

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Speaker 1: so much newsflow. This should be a one hour, single

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Speaker 1: best idea. We're going to try to keep it under

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Speaker 1: four minutes today. What a great Jobs Day show, Claudia,

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Speaker 1: Sam will get to thank you so much for joining earlier. First, Neil,

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Speaker 1: I'm much. I'm doing LinkedIn. I'm looking through the thing

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Speaker 1: and this chart screams at me and I know it's

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Speaker 1: the beverage curve. The beverage curve is William Beverage out

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Speaker 1: of the London School of Economics, like your grandfather's time

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Speaker 1: or your great grandfather's time, I should say, and it's

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Speaker 1: basically the ratio of unemployment, the movement of unemployment versus

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Speaker 1: job openings. It has a lot of information in it,

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Speaker 1: and Neil Dutta says, look, we're in a trend, and

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Speaker 1: the trend is towards a more difficult jobs market. Neil

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Speaker 1: Dudda of RENMEC.

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Speaker 2: We've more than normalized. I mean, if you go back

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Speaker 2: a couple of years ago to what Christopher Waller was saying,

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Speaker 2: remember that he basically posited that, you know, you could

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Speaker 2: have a sort of tightening monetary policy without much of

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Speaker 2: an increase in unemployment because they're operating along a point

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Speaker 2: in that beverage curve where you would see a big

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Speaker 2: decline in job openings without much of an increase in unemployment.

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Speaker 2: He was right, but he basically said that when you

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Speaker 2: get to a certain point on job openings, if you

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Speaker 2: see any further decline in sort of excess labor demand

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Speaker 2: in this case brought to you by job openings, that

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Speaker 2: would lead to more outsized increases in the unemployment rate.

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Speaker 1: Neil done it. They're the one thing I would say here,

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Speaker 1: and I have not read many reports yet. We're doing

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Speaker 1: the show just before this taping. But I think what

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Speaker 1: you're going to see here is a lot of positive

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Speaker 1: construct on the labor economy, And without looking at any

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Speaker 1: of the data, I still think what has changed in

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Speaker 1: America is immigration. And this goes back to Angus Madison

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Speaker 1: and just immigration and headcount matter within this analysis. And

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Speaker 1: I'm putting a big asterisk by all the stuff because

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Speaker 1: I don't understand you forget about the political debate what

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Speaker 1: President Trump has done from President Biden on immigration and

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Speaker 1: that pass forward as well. So I tell you, folks,

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Speaker 1: I really take the media certitude of this with a

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Speaker 1: real grainness. I love Neil Dudes's skepticism anchoring our broadcast.

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Speaker 1: Claudia Sam She's definitive with the Michigan credibility that she has.

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Speaker 1: She's changed American economics with the some rule with a

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Speaker 1: wonderful call last year to forget about a recession. She

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Speaker 1: did that quite well. Claudiasm today from sixty thousand feet

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Speaker 1: on how AI folds into our labor economy.

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Speaker 3: Any of these conversations about hey, how AI is going

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Speaker 3: to reshape the labor market? These are really looking forward, right.

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Speaker 3: We've already seen a pretty remarkable step down in the

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Speaker 3: labor share. This has happened over recent decades, but we're

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Speaker 3: seeing it again this year. And as you mentioned in

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Speaker 3: the third quarter that you know, blockbuster productivity number workers

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Speaker 3: didn't share in that right, the labor shares down as

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Speaker 3: at the lowest level in post World War two history.

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Speaker 3: And this is before we've really seen any of the

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Speaker 3: you know AI have like a big picture effect on

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Speaker 3: the labor market. So yeah, no, this is a real,

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Speaker 3: real issue.

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Speaker 1: Claudia Sam there, New Century Advisors. What a great week

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Speaker 1: it really felt, folks, like the first week of the

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Speaker 1: new year. I mean, I can't I think it was

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Speaker 1: yesterday or the day before. Really was like, okay, everybody's back,

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Speaker 1: everybody's in meetings, let's go, let's go. It doesn't start

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Speaker 1: January second or third. It takes, you know, a week

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Speaker 1: or so, and we're there right now. We'll move forward.

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Speaker 1: Look at Joe Matthew balance a power Joe Matthew just

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Speaker 1: dealing with all of the news flow out of Washington.

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Speaker 1: Just an extraordinary burden there. And we'll be with you

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Speaker 1: next week. I'm Bloomberg Surveillance. We're in a podcast on Apple,

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Speaker 1: on Spotify and YouTube podcasts. It's single best idea,