1 00:00:00,920 --> 00:00:03,480 Speaker 1: Welcome to two percent. I'm your host, Michael Lieser. So 2 00:00:03,560 --> 00:00:06,240 Speaker 1: there is a lot of focus on longevity right now. 3 00:00:06,360 --> 00:00:08,520 Speaker 1: Everybody wants to live longer, and if you were at 4 00:00:08,600 --> 00:00:12,280 Speaker 1: all interested in longevity, you have probably heard of the 5 00:00:12,280 --> 00:00:15,400 Speaker 1: Blue zones. These are places on Earth where people live 6 00:00:15,720 --> 00:00:19,360 Speaker 1: well past one hundred years of age. There are Netflix 7 00:00:19,400 --> 00:00:21,680 Speaker 1: series about the Blue Zones, there are books about the 8 00:00:21,760 --> 00:00:24,800 Speaker 1: Blue zones, and these things all tell us exactly what 9 00:00:24,840 --> 00:00:26,840 Speaker 1: we can do to live like people in the Blue 10 00:00:26,920 --> 00:00:31,120 Speaker 1: zones and in theory reach past age one hundred. But 11 00:00:31,160 --> 00:00:33,919 Speaker 1: there's a little problem, well a very big problem, and 12 00:00:33,960 --> 00:00:36,159 Speaker 1: that's that the Blue zones might be one of the 13 00:00:36,440 --> 00:00:40,200 Speaker 1: longest cons in history. That is what my guest today 14 00:00:40,240 --> 00:00:43,760 Speaker 1: concluded after he dove deeply into the data and found 15 00:00:43,760 --> 00:00:48,160 Speaker 1: a lot of critical airs. I'm talking to Saul Justin Newman. 16 00:00:48,600 --> 00:00:52,400 Speaker 1: He studies population aging at Oxford and he is also 17 00:00:52,560 --> 00:00:55,600 Speaker 1: a researcher at University College London, and he's got a 18 00:00:55,640 --> 00:00:59,640 Speaker 1: new book it's called Morbid Debunking Modern Longevity Science. So 19 00:00:59,640 --> 00:01:01,760 Speaker 1: he's going to talk to us about what he found 20 00:01:01,800 --> 00:01:03,760 Speaker 1: about the Blue zones and what it can tell us 21 00:01:03,880 --> 00:01:18,679 Speaker 1: about the new science of longevity. Saul Justin Newman, thanks 22 00:01:18,680 --> 00:01:19,480 Speaker 1: for coming on the show. 23 00:01:19,920 --> 00:01:21,280 Speaker 2: Thank you very much for having me. 24 00:01:21,640 --> 00:01:23,200 Speaker 1: All Right, here's where I want to start with something 25 00:01:23,319 --> 00:01:25,360 Speaker 1: very basic. What are the blue zones? 26 00:01:25,760 --> 00:01:29,080 Speaker 2: Blue zones were supposed to be regions of the world 27 00:01:29,120 --> 00:01:32,840 Speaker 2: where people attained remarkable ages at remarkable rates, and they 28 00:01:32,920 --> 00:01:35,240 Speaker 2: usually did. The remarkable age is age one hundred. 29 00:01:35,800 --> 00:01:38,479 Speaker 1: And how did they start? How did this idea even began? 30 00:01:39,440 --> 00:01:41,560 Speaker 2: I think the idea is how it began as a 31 00:01:41,600 --> 00:01:44,600 Speaker 2: bit of a mystery, because the process was to go 32 00:01:44,680 --> 00:01:48,040 Speaker 2: to an island of a European country, which is Sardinia, 33 00:01:48,080 --> 00:01:51,120 Speaker 2: and say, people here may live a very long time. 34 00:01:51,160 --> 00:01:55,960 Speaker 2: Let's check now why that particular island was chosen as 35 00:01:55,960 --> 00:01:59,360 Speaker 2: a bit obscure, but the basic idea was someone ran 36 00:01:59,400 --> 00:02:03,320 Speaker 2: a small stuff. They decided that this region of a 37 00:02:03,400 --> 00:02:06,120 Speaker 2: very poor part of Italy was living an extremely long time, 38 00:02:06,200 --> 00:02:09,520 Speaker 2: and they called it a blue zone. Amusingly, they also 39 00:02:09,800 --> 00:02:12,919 Speaker 2: jumped straight to the conclusion of why people were living 40 00:02:12,960 --> 00:02:16,200 Speaker 2: a long time in this area, And I love this 41 00:02:16,240 --> 00:02:18,680 Speaker 2: because it hasn't made it into the lifestyle advice. But 42 00:02:18,760 --> 00:02:23,720 Speaker 2: the original conclusion was because of all the incest. Of 43 00:02:23,760 --> 00:02:29,400 Speaker 2: all the incest, Yeah, the person who had done this 44 00:02:29,440 --> 00:02:33,880 Speaker 2: had gone to this island and decided that incest was 45 00:02:33,880 --> 00:02:36,760 Speaker 2: causing extreme longevity in these little mountain towns. 46 00:02:37,320 --> 00:02:39,440 Speaker 1: I did not hear about that when I went to 47 00:02:39,440 --> 00:02:41,840 Speaker 1: the Blue Zone's website. I think that was told to 48 00:02:41,880 --> 00:02:43,320 Speaker 1: eat sardines or something instead. 49 00:02:43,480 --> 00:02:46,040 Speaker 2: Yeah, a little bit by design, I suspect. 50 00:02:46,680 --> 00:02:50,200 Speaker 1: So then it expands, So it starts in Sardinia, and 51 00:02:50,240 --> 00:02:53,880 Speaker 1: then they start tacking on places that are considered blue zones. 52 00:02:53,880 --> 00:02:54,840 Speaker 1: How did that play out? 53 00:02:55,440 --> 00:02:58,720 Speaker 2: It played out effectively as a sort of magazine article, 54 00:02:58,840 --> 00:03:02,640 Speaker 2: not as a scientific process. We had a gentleman arrive 55 00:03:02,800 --> 00:03:05,680 Speaker 2: from out of the blue and he picked up this 56 00:03:05,840 --> 00:03:09,400 Speaker 2: idea of regions where people live forever, and he wrote 57 00:03:09,400 --> 00:03:13,440 Speaker 2: an article, this is the third most popular article in 58 00:03:13,560 --> 00:03:17,840 Speaker 2: National Geographic of all time, about these three regions where 59 00:03:17,840 --> 00:03:21,440 Speaker 2: people supposedly lived past one hundred. One is in California 60 00:03:21,480 --> 00:03:24,600 Speaker 2: in Low Melinda, one is in Okinawa, and the other 61 00:03:24,720 --> 00:03:28,040 Speaker 2: is this Sardinian blue zone. And the idea was that 62 00:03:28,360 --> 00:03:32,239 Speaker 2: if you do as the Romans do effectively and behave 63 00:03:32,320 --> 00:03:35,800 Speaker 2: like they're doing these three very very different places, you 64 00:03:36,040 --> 00:03:38,000 Speaker 2: too could live past age one hundred. It's a very 65 00:03:38,040 --> 00:03:43,720 Speaker 2: alluring idea, and it launched a sort of lifestyle chain 66 00:03:43,760 --> 00:03:47,960 Speaker 2: of products, starting with cookbooks and moving on to absolutely 67 00:03:48,000 --> 00:03:51,280 Speaker 2: everything under the sun. I think they even have a cologne. 68 00:03:50,720 --> 00:03:56,200 Speaker 1: Now nice and then so it has they identify these 69 00:03:56,240 --> 00:03:59,000 Speaker 1: three places, and then they start adding on places. Right, 70 00:03:59,040 --> 00:04:03,840 Speaker 1: there's like coast, different places. But the idea is typically 71 00:04:03,880 --> 00:04:07,680 Speaker 1: they will identify something these people do, these people who 72 00:04:07,720 --> 00:04:10,920 Speaker 1: are supposedly long living, and therefore that is kind of 73 00:04:10,920 --> 00:04:13,080 Speaker 1: the key to living longer for you as well. 74 00:04:13,440 --> 00:04:15,760 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean there's a central claim that people in 75 00:04:15,800 --> 00:04:18,880 Speaker 2: these places live very, very long times, and then there's 76 00:04:18,880 --> 00:04:22,800 Speaker 2: these subsidiary claims that we've figured out why this happens, 77 00:04:22,920 --> 00:04:25,640 Speaker 2: and there are these nine sets of behaviors that are 78 00:04:25,839 --> 00:04:28,360 Speaker 2: why people in these regions live a long time. 79 00:04:28,680 --> 00:04:30,320 Speaker 1: Yeah, and what are some of those behaviors? 80 00:04:30,560 --> 00:04:33,839 Speaker 2: Absurdly drinking every day, which is a bit of a stretch, 81 00:04:35,279 --> 00:04:38,880 Speaker 2: you know. I find it stounding that that's out of 82 00:04:38,960 --> 00:04:43,040 Speaker 2: number one, especially because Low Melender is a tea total place. 83 00:04:43,080 --> 00:04:47,680 Speaker 2: But the others, you know, they fit neatly into preconceived 84 00:04:47,680 --> 00:04:52,200 Speaker 2: ideas of what we think is healthy. There is so 85 00:04:52,400 --> 00:04:56,120 Speaker 2: gentle exercise is probably the most sensible, and then there 86 00:04:56,120 --> 00:05:02,279 Speaker 2: are these vaguely defined sort of feel good sounding concepts 87 00:05:02,440 --> 00:05:07,120 Speaker 2: like being the right tribe or connects with your neighbors 88 00:05:07,760 --> 00:05:09,400 Speaker 2: or hang out with loved ones. You know, stuff that 89 00:05:09,480 --> 00:05:13,680 Speaker 2: you want to do anyway, and it's very easily marketable. 90 00:05:14,480 --> 00:05:17,120 Speaker 1: To your point on the marketing, why do you think 91 00:05:17,160 --> 00:05:20,039 Speaker 1: this idea took off so well? Was it just like 92 00:05:20,320 --> 00:05:24,400 Speaker 1: a brilliant packaging around basic advice with something science and 93 00:05:24,480 --> 00:05:27,280 Speaker 1: sounding about people all living older precisely? 94 00:05:27,600 --> 00:05:30,520 Speaker 2: And it's not just that it's a proven market strategy 95 00:05:30,600 --> 00:05:32,839 Speaker 2: going back to I mean, going back to the first 96 00:05:32,880 --> 00:05:37,320 Speaker 2: Emperor of China. I mean it's not a new sales 97 00:05:37,360 --> 00:05:39,600 Speaker 2: pitch to say that, oh, I have the secret to 98 00:05:39,720 --> 00:05:42,120 Speaker 2: living forever, and you just follow my advice, pay me 99 00:05:42,200 --> 00:05:47,839 Speaker 2: my money, and I'll get you there. Now, the beauty 100 00:05:47,880 --> 00:05:50,760 Speaker 2: of that is, first, if people don't live forever, they 101 00:05:50,760 --> 00:05:56,080 Speaker 2: can't complain because they're dead, so your customer complaints division 102 00:05:56,120 --> 00:05:58,919 Speaker 2: has very little to do. But also it's something that 103 00:05:58,960 --> 00:06:03,159 Speaker 2: everybody wants to hear, right especially now we know what 104 00:06:04,000 --> 00:06:07,400 Speaker 2: contributes to longevity, and it's going to see a doctor. 105 00:06:07,560 --> 00:06:11,279 Speaker 2: It's exercise, don't drink, don't smoke right now. If you 106 00:06:11,279 --> 00:06:16,279 Speaker 2: don't want to do that, then you are wide open 107 00:06:16,320 --> 00:06:19,159 Speaker 2: for sales pitches, right, really wide open, and it's really 108 00:06:19,240 --> 00:06:25,000 Speaker 2: kind of an easy win to even just imagine that 109 00:06:25,080 --> 00:06:27,520 Speaker 2: there's a pill that will make you live longer. But 110 00:06:27,640 --> 00:06:31,240 Speaker 2: even if the placebos, it's an appealing idea. It's sort of, 111 00:06:31,960 --> 00:06:34,760 Speaker 2: you know, here's my anxiety reduction process for the day. 112 00:06:35,080 --> 00:06:37,080 Speaker 1: Yeah, and especially if you like to drink. You see 113 00:06:37,080 --> 00:06:39,279 Speaker 1: that and you go, I like this blue zones idea. 114 00:06:39,360 --> 00:06:41,479 Speaker 1: They drink. I'm going to drink too. That's great. 115 00:06:42,320 --> 00:06:45,840 Speaker 2: Exactly the pitch to California Wine Months, like they specifically 116 00:06:45,880 --> 00:06:48,560 Speaker 2: say what kind of wine you should try? Right, it's 117 00:06:49,960 --> 00:06:54,240 Speaker 2: you know, go and get Sardinian kanna now wine like why, 118 00:06:54,360 --> 00:06:59,600 Speaker 2: you know, who knows? But this is a very easy sell. 119 00:06:59,680 --> 00:07:03,200 Speaker 2: And yeah, it's it's also backing up off a sales 120 00:07:03,240 --> 00:07:06,280 Speaker 2: pitch that was around in the seventies that was essentially 121 00:07:06,440 --> 00:07:08,800 Speaker 2: exactly the same. You know, in the seventies there was 122 00:07:08,800 --> 00:07:12,680 Speaker 2: something called longevity zones pitched in the same magazine, pitched 123 00:07:12,680 --> 00:07:16,560 Speaker 2: in National Geographic by a professor of medicine Harvard called 124 00:07:16,560 --> 00:07:20,480 Speaker 2: Alexander Leff. Now let's just say these haven't exactly held up. 125 00:07:20,840 --> 00:07:23,120 Speaker 2: You know, one is in the Hansa Valley of Pakistan, 126 00:07:24,600 --> 00:07:27,200 Speaker 2: We've got a one in a place called Viilka Bamba 127 00:07:27,440 --> 00:07:32,800 Speaker 2: and Ecuador, and we've got another in Soviet ab Kazia, Georgia. 128 00:07:34,160 --> 00:07:39,760 Speaker 2: Now these aren't centers of longevity. And the short answer 129 00:07:39,760 --> 00:07:43,840 Speaker 2: to why these places looked on paper, why like people 130 00:07:43,960 --> 00:07:46,679 Speaker 2: living past one hundred, was that they were just committing 131 00:07:46,680 --> 00:07:49,000 Speaker 2: pension fraud or they had just simply no idea how 132 00:07:49,040 --> 00:07:49,640 Speaker 2: old they were. 133 00:07:50,000 --> 00:07:53,400 Speaker 1: Yeah, let's get into that. So how did you start 134 00:07:53,400 --> 00:07:55,680 Speaker 1: to become skeptical of this idea? How did that tell 135 00:07:55,760 --> 00:07:57,760 Speaker 1: us that whole story of how unfolded and how you 136 00:07:57,840 --> 00:07:58,760 Speaker 1: ended up writing about this. 137 00:07:59,760 --> 00:08:03,480 Speaker 2: I began just with a friend sending me a scientific 138 00:08:03,520 --> 00:08:08,360 Speaker 2: paper because I'm a huge note it's unapologetic at this point. 139 00:08:08,440 --> 00:08:11,440 Speaker 2: And I finished in medical science doctorate and a friend 140 00:08:11,480 --> 00:08:12,960 Speaker 2: of mine had sent me a paper saying, you know, 141 00:08:13,080 --> 00:08:16,560 Speaker 2: you're interested in how long people live. His paper, the 142 00:08:16,600 --> 00:08:20,720 Speaker 2: paper involved was in the top scientific journal in the world, 143 00:08:20,840 --> 00:08:24,720 Speaker 2: and it involved someone accidentally rounding off most of their 144 00:08:24,840 --> 00:08:28,080 Speaker 2: data to zero by accident and then publishing the results. 145 00:08:29,960 --> 00:08:32,120 Speaker 2: And that's I mean, that's a shocking thing to do, 146 00:08:32,720 --> 00:08:37,000 Speaker 2: and it got me interesting. It's a huge problem if 147 00:08:37,040 --> 00:08:39,600 Speaker 2: you use the correct column in the spreadsheet. The whole 148 00:08:39,679 --> 00:08:43,120 Speaker 2: thing fell apart and you reached the opposite conclusion. But 149 00:08:43,200 --> 00:08:46,120 Speaker 2: the conclusion was about how long it is possible to live? 150 00:08:46,160 --> 00:08:48,080 Speaker 2: You know, what is the limit to human life? So 151 00:08:48,120 --> 00:08:51,840 Speaker 2: it's a really compelling question, how long is it possible 152 00:08:51,840 --> 00:08:54,720 Speaker 2: for me to live? How long? And the fact that 153 00:08:54,760 --> 00:09:00,679 Speaker 2: this debate was being undertaken with such terrible evidence was 154 00:09:00,880 --> 00:09:03,840 Speaker 2: amazing to me. And it became more amazing when the 155 00:09:03,960 --> 00:09:06,400 Speaker 2: other top journal in the scientific journal in the world 156 00:09:06,400 --> 00:09:10,040 Speaker 2: published papers stating exactly the opposite conclusion to the first paper, 157 00:09:11,040 --> 00:09:13,840 Speaker 2: and that was based on something even worse. So what 158 00:09:13,880 --> 00:09:17,120 Speaker 2: these people had done is they'd taken every one hundred 159 00:09:17,120 --> 00:09:19,160 Speaker 2: and five year old or record of one hundred and 160 00:09:19,200 --> 00:09:22,800 Speaker 2: five year old in Italy and they had fit a 161 00:09:22,840 --> 00:09:26,280 Speaker 2: model to it. But it was the most biased mathematical 162 00:09:26,360 --> 00:09:29,280 Speaker 2: model possible. It was the only one that gave them 163 00:09:29,280 --> 00:09:32,960 Speaker 2: a publishable result. And so here you have two halves 164 00:09:33,000 --> 00:09:38,600 Speaker 2: of an academic debate. Neither of them are remotely close 165 00:09:38,679 --> 00:09:42,240 Speaker 2: to following the rules or having any integrity. And it 166 00:09:42,360 --> 00:09:45,280 Speaker 2: dragged me in against my will, into this question of 167 00:09:45,280 --> 00:09:47,720 Speaker 2: how long is it possible to live? Do this start 168 00:09:47,760 --> 00:09:48,800 Speaker 2: or even make any sense? 169 00:09:49,720 --> 00:09:51,840 Speaker 1: How did that get you the blue zones? Eventually you 170 00:09:51,880 --> 00:09:53,920 Speaker 1: start kind of stripping away at this question. You're kind 171 00:09:53,920 --> 00:09:55,720 Speaker 1: of like a thorn in the side of these researchers. 172 00:09:55,720 --> 00:09:56,520 Speaker 1: And then what happens. 173 00:09:57,040 --> 00:10:01,760 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean more than a thorn. It's it's a 174 00:10:01,800 --> 00:10:04,679 Speaker 2: massive embarrassment to have to retract something from these from 175 00:10:04,720 --> 00:10:07,360 Speaker 2: these papers, and that's exactly what these groups should do. 176 00:10:08,400 --> 00:10:11,520 Speaker 2: But I was sitting on a bus and came up 177 00:10:11,559 --> 00:10:15,120 Speaker 2: with theoretical idea. It's a very non intuitive theoretical idea 178 00:10:15,440 --> 00:10:18,240 Speaker 2: because usually in science get you get measurement error. You 179 00:10:18,240 --> 00:10:21,079 Speaker 2: know what happens. It happens for the Hubble space telescope, 180 00:10:21,080 --> 00:10:25,160 Speaker 2: and happens for the particle colliders in Switzerland. You always 181 00:10:25,160 --> 00:10:28,280 Speaker 2: get measurement error, and usually you can ignore it. You 182 00:10:28,320 --> 00:10:30,240 Speaker 2: can just say, look, who cares, there's a small amount 183 00:10:30,240 --> 00:10:33,280 Speaker 2: of random error. It washes out in the statistical model. Well, 184 00:10:33,320 --> 00:10:37,080 Speaker 2: I found out that mathematically, in a survival process, that's 185 00:10:37,120 --> 00:10:41,280 Speaker 2: not true, and you get this very non intuitive result 186 00:10:41,400 --> 00:10:45,600 Speaker 2: where the number of errors grows exponentially over age. So 187 00:10:45,600 --> 00:10:48,360 Speaker 2: by the time you reach these advanced ages, you theoretically 188 00:10:48,360 --> 00:10:52,760 Speaker 2: expect all of them to be trash. Just it's much 189 00:10:52,800 --> 00:10:56,000 Speaker 2: easier to be an error in paperwork than someone who 190 00:10:56,000 --> 00:11:00,400 Speaker 2: has outlived the rest of humanity, way easier. And this 191 00:11:00,480 --> 00:11:03,160 Speaker 2: is especially the case because a quarter of the world's 192 00:11:03,240 --> 00:11:05,120 Speaker 2: children still don't get a birth certificate. So if you 193 00:11:05,160 --> 00:11:07,600 Speaker 2: go back one hundred years when these people were supposedly born, 194 00:11:08,559 --> 00:11:11,920 Speaker 2: has any paperwork, It gets made up at some point 195 00:11:11,960 --> 00:11:14,280 Speaker 2: between then and now, and if you make a mistake 196 00:11:14,520 --> 00:11:17,680 Speaker 2: in that process, you end up being one hundred and five. 197 00:11:18,160 --> 00:11:21,679 Speaker 2: And that's effectively what these old age hair records are. 198 00:11:22,040 --> 00:11:25,840 Speaker 1: Yeah, there airs in the record keeping. So to walk 199 00:11:25,920 --> 00:11:28,880 Speaker 1: us through, especially with the blue zone, what are some 200 00:11:28,960 --> 00:11:32,559 Speaker 1: of the errors you've found in these supposed people who 201 00:11:32,600 --> 00:11:34,080 Speaker 1: are living past one hundred and five? 202 00:11:34,520 --> 00:11:38,560 Speaker 2: Well, the Oknawen one was extraordinary because I didn't find this. 203 00:11:38,880 --> 00:11:44,080 Speaker 2: The Japanese government found out that most of the people 204 00:11:44,360 --> 00:11:46,679 Speaker 2: in Japan who were over age one hundred, I mean 205 00:11:46,880 --> 00:11:49,560 Speaker 2: more than eighty two percent were dead. They were long dead, 206 00:11:50,440 --> 00:11:52,560 Speaker 2: so most of them been killed in World War Two. 207 00:11:53,920 --> 00:11:56,400 Speaker 2: And the remarkable thing is in Japan you have this 208 00:11:56,480 --> 00:11:59,920 Speaker 2: sort of self registration of who has died in your household, 209 00:12:00,760 --> 00:12:04,800 Speaker 2: and if an American plane puts a bomb through the household, 210 00:12:04,800 --> 00:12:07,920 Speaker 2: who reports all the deaths, nobody does right, and you're 211 00:12:08,080 --> 00:12:12,720 Speaker 2: keep living on paper. Right. So there was this amazing 212 00:12:12,800 --> 00:12:15,400 Speaker 2: finding in Okinawa that if your town had been firebombed, 213 00:12:16,520 --> 00:12:19,000 Speaker 2: you could predict around eighty percent of the variation in 214 00:12:19,440 --> 00:12:21,560 Speaker 2: people reaching one hundred. So if your town's been firebombed, 215 00:12:21,600 --> 00:12:23,000 Speaker 2: everyone reaches one hundred. 216 00:12:23,080 --> 00:12:26,760 Speaker 1: Right, because they died in nineteen forty four, exactly. 217 00:12:26,320 --> 00:12:29,680 Speaker 2: The real secret to longevity, right. And the same goes 218 00:12:29,720 --> 00:12:32,319 Speaker 2: with fire bombing cities where all the records are kept. 219 00:12:32,920 --> 00:12:38,079 Speaker 2: So the Japanese government had gone out to effectively have 220 00:12:38,240 --> 00:12:41,520 Speaker 2: a celebration of old people in Tokyo, and they'd gone 221 00:12:41,520 --> 00:12:44,000 Speaker 2: looking for the worlds for the oldest man in Tokyo. 222 00:12:45,360 --> 00:12:48,520 Speaker 2: And this bizarre process has played out where city officials 223 00:12:48,559 --> 00:12:50,839 Speaker 2: come around to the house. They talked to the grand daughter, 224 00:12:50,920 --> 00:12:54,160 Speaker 2: and the granddaughter says, he's out of Gifu Prefectory. He's 225 00:12:54,600 --> 00:12:59,040 Speaker 2: gone for the day, and Guefoo Prefecture is four hundredilometers away. 226 00:12:59,040 --> 00:13:01,240 Speaker 2: The guys one hundred and eleven, So it's a bit 227 00:13:01,240 --> 00:13:01,800 Speaker 2: of a stretch. 228 00:13:02,559 --> 00:13:04,280 Speaker 1: It's one hundred and five year old guy just taking 229 00:13:04,280 --> 00:13:04,959 Speaker 1: a little jount. 230 00:13:05,200 --> 00:13:07,120 Speaker 2: Yeah, one hundred and eleven. One hundred and eleven year 231 00:13:07,120 --> 00:13:09,440 Speaker 2: old guy apparently he's taken a job, and when they 232 00:13:09,440 --> 00:13:12,520 Speaker 2: come back, she's like, oh, he's out again, Like I 233 00:13:12,520 --> 00:13:15,840 Speaker 2: guess if he's down at the girlfriend's or something. So 234 00:13:15,880 --> 00:13:19,600 Speaker 2: this keeps happening until they get a bit concerned and 235 00:13:19,960 --> 00:13:22,360 Speaker 2: the grand daughter turns up to the police station and says, oh, 236 00:13:22,360 --> 00:13:25,640 Speaker 2: we've had a terrible thing going on. The granddad has 237 00:13:25,679 --> 00:13:29,560 Speaker 2: barricaded himself into his room and is fighting off the 238 00:13:29,679 --> 00:13:31,679 Speaker 2: entire family, which again for one hundred and eleven year old, 239 00:13:31,679 --> 00:13:34,000 Speaker 2: is quite the feet right, yeah, a strong guy with 240 00:13:34,559 --> 00:13:37,440 Speaker 2: a strong guy. When the police turn up, he's in 241 00:13:37,480 --> 00:13:40,320 Speaker 2: the room and he's been in the room for thirty 242 00:13:40,559 --> 00:13:45,000 Speaker 2: years dead and they have been collecting the pension the 243 00:13:45,160 --> 00:13:49,240 Speaker 2: entire time and living in living in the house like 244 00:13:49,280 --> 00:13:51,680 Speaker 2: the whole extended family. And there's another guy in the 245 00:13:51,720 --> 00:13:57,200 Speaker 2: backpack at the end of the bed. Now that's this 246 00:13:57,280 --> 00:13:59,840 Speaker 2: is surprisingly normal for one hundred and five year olds 247 00:14:00,160 --> 00:14:01,760 Speaker 2: have That actually happens all the time. 248 00:14:02,280 --> 00:14:06,760 Speaker 1: So people are effectively saying that their relatives, who in 249 00:14:06,800 --> 00:14:09,160 Speaker 1: this case died thirty years ago are alive on paper, 250 00:14:09,200 --> 00:14:12,000 Speaker 1: because that way you can keep cash and grandpa's checks 251 00:14:12,000 --> 00:14:14,120 Speaker 1: from the government pension checks exactly. 252 00:14:14,240 --> 00:14:16,760 Speaker 2: They had cashed out roughly one hundred grand in his 253 00:14:16,880 --> 00:14:20,080 Speaker 2: pension the day that the city officials had come around. Right, 254 00:14:20,160 --> 00:14:24,920 Speaker 2: So there's a big withdrawal. That's normal. But then they 255 00:14:24,960 --> 00:14:28,560 Speaker 2: go looking for everyone else who is very old, because 256 00:14:28,560 --> 00:14:30,680 Speaker 2: they discovered the oldest woman in Tokyo hasn't been seen 257 00:14:30,720 --> 00:14:33,920 Speaker 2: since nineteen eighty six. And they go around all of Japan. 258 00:14:34,040 --> 00:14:36,000 Speaker 2: Now they check ninety two percent of cases and they 259 00:14:36,000 --> 00:14:37,960 Speaker 2: find that eighty two percent of them are dead. Now 260 00:14:37,960 --> 00:14:41,120 Speaker 2: that's over two hundred and thirty thousand people who are 261 00:14:42,360 --> 00:14:45,040 Speaker 2: dead in reality and alive on paper. And this is 262 00:14:45,600 --> 00:14:49,400 Speaker 2: data that the Blue Zones demographers had just said was 263 00:14:49,440 --> 00:14:50,320 Speaker 2: the best in the world. 264 00:14:51,000 --> 00:14:56,160 Speaker 1: Yeah, practically this plays out for the listener. You hear 265 00:14:56,240 --> 00:14:58,760 Speaker 1: some advice from Blue Zones that there's these so many 266 00:14:58,800 --> 00:15:01,840 Speaker 1: people over one hundred five in Japan, and therefore you 267 00:15:01,880 --> 00:15:04,400 Speaker 1: should eat the food they eat, you should do this 268 00:15:04,480 --> 00:15:06,280 Speaker 1: thing they do. But it turns out they've all died 269 00:15:06,320 --> 00:15:07,160 Speaker 1: in the eighties. 270 00:15:07,360 --> 00:15:10,040 Speaker 2: They've all died in the eighties. And not only have 271 00:15:10,080 --> 00:15:13,480 Speaker 2: they all died in or in the forties, not only 272 00:15:13,480 --> 00:15:16,760 Speaker 2: have they all died but you know, this is supposed 273 00:15:16,800 --> 00:15:19,000 Speaker 2: to be based on interviews with two hundred and sixty 274 00:15:19,000 --> 00:15:22,040 Speaker 2: odd centenarians. Now those have never been published. And if 275 00:15:22,080 --> 00:15:26,400 Speaker 2: I had the secret to eternal life and it was 276 00:15:26,480 --> 00:15:30,160 Speaker 2: in a few interviews, I would publish those interviews. Yeah, 277 00:15:30,200 --> 00:15:32,960 Speaker 2: and this is much more a sort of oh, trust me, bro, 278 00:15:33,080 --> 00:15:36,920 Speaker 2: these interviews say what to eat? Where's the data? Because 279 00:15:36,920 --> 00:15:39,680 Speaker 2: the Japanese government is saying eighty two percent of these 280 00:15:39,680 --> 00:15:42,720 Speaker 2: people at least are dead. And this happens in every 281 00:15:43,280 --> 00:15:47,360 Speaker 2: blue zone. I looked at the Greek blue zone, right, 282 00:15:47,480 --> 00:15:50,480 Speaker 2: they had a really similar process play out. They had 283 00:15:50,480 --> 00:15:54,600 Speaker 2: more than nine thousand centenarians on paper. The global financial 284 00:15:54,600 --> 00:15:59,200 Speaker 2: crisis comes along and the effectively the Greek government first 285 00:15:59,200 --> 00:16:02,240 Speaker 2: do a review find roughly two hundred three hundred errors. 286 00:16:02,520 --> 00:16:04,720 Speaker 2: But the German government comes in and says, we'll not 287 00:16:04,800 --> 00:16:09,320 Speaker 2: give you a penny until you really check. And it 288 00:16:09,320 --> 00:16:11,360 Speaker 2: turns out at least seventy two percent of these people 289 00:16:11,480 --> 00:16:14,960 Speaker 2: are collecting the pension from the graveyard. And after that, 290 00:16:15,720 --> 00:16:17,960 Speaker 2: the island of Yourkorea, which is one of these blue zones, 291 00:16:18,360 --> 00:16:19,880 Speaker 2: just has no centenarians. 292 00:16:20,320 --> 00:16:24,880 Speaker 1: Wow. So this feels like one of those where I 293 00:16:24,920 --> 00:16:28,280 Speaker 1: think if it were we looked at these numbers, we 294 00:16:28,360 --> 00:16:32,040 Speaker 1: think there's a lot of people who are centenarians there. 295 00:16:32,960 --> 00:16:34,920 Speaker 1: We rolled with the idea, but the fact that then 296 00:16:34,960 --> 00:16:36,680 Speaker 1: there was a claim around what we talked to all 297 00:16:36,720 --> 00:16:38,840 Speaker 1: of them, but then they never published the interviews. That's 298 00:16:38,840 --> 00:16:41,560 Speaker 1: where it starts to feel a little more sketchy to me. 299 00:16:41,960 --> 00:16:45,000 Speaker 2: It really becomes sketchy when you look at the low Melinda. 300 00:16:45,520 --> 00:16:47,960 Speaker 1: Yeah, let's talk about that, because in the US, you 301 00:16:47,960 --> 00:16:50,160 Speaker 1: would think we had good record keeping and things like that. 302 00:16:51,440 --> 00:16:54,200 Speaker 2: The US is really surprising in this regard, right. We 303 00:16:54,840 --> 00:16:56,840 Speaker 2: we sort of carry with us this idea that if 304 00:16:56,880 --> 00:17:01,120 Speaker 2: something's written down officially then it actually is is probably true. 305 00:17:01,440 --> 00:17:03,920 Speaker 2: But let's just ignore that for the moment and just 306 00:17:03,920 --> 00:17:06,760 Speaker 2: look at Loma Linda on the face of it. Well, 307 00:17:06,760 --> 00:17:10,560 Speaker 2: the CDC measures Loma Linda for longevity and it is 308 00:17:10,720 --> 00:17:13,719 Speaker 2: nowhere near the best place in the US, and at 309 00:17:13,800 --> 00:17:16,080 Speaker 2: least a quarter of the US and perhaps three quarters 310 00:17:16,080 --> 00:17:19,280 Speaker 2: of the US has higher longevity than Loma Linda. Now 311 00:17:19,280 --> 00:17:21,600 Speaker 2: that's the independent data. So when I took the independent 312 00:17:21,680 --> 00:17:25,080 Speaker 2: data to the founder of the Blue Zones, I said, 313 00:17:25,119 --> 00:17:29,000 Speaker 2: where is your evidence the people here live past one hundred. Now, 314 00:17:29,000 --> 00:17:31,439 Speaker 2: he has admitted in The New York Times and to 315 00:17:31,520 --> 00:17:35,800 Speaker 2: Science Magazine that he came up with Loma Linda because 316 00:17:35,800 --> 00:17:40,960 Speaker 2: his editor asked him to, oh wow, find America's blue zone. Right, 317 00:17:41,359 --> 00:17:43,640 Speaker 2: he asked him to find America's blue zone. The next day, 318 00:17:43,680 --> 00:17:47,639 Speaker 2: on the drive between his house in La and Las Vegas, 319 00:17:47,800 --> 00:17:53,119 Speaker 2: there's a turn at Loma Linda. And for twenty years 320 00:17:53,160 --> 00:17:57,320 Speaker 2: he has marketed this as if there was the fountain 321 00:17:57,359 --> 00:18:00,840 Speaker 2: of youth beneath the freeway next to the Costco. 322 00:18:04,000 --> 00:18:06,960 Speaker 1: No Costco's pretty powerful man who knows it, right, and 323 00:18:07,040 --> 00:18:07,520 Speaker 1: right near. 324 00:18:07,359 --> 00:18:11,840 Speaker 2: The jumper juice there's the secret. Right. It's astonishing. And 325 00:18:11,880 --> 00:18:15,040 Speaker 2: then the follow up claim is that, oh I forgot 326 00:18:15,080 --> 00:18:19,600 Speaker 2: to delist it as a blue zone. Now again from perspective, 327 00:18:19,640 --> 00:18:24,120 Speaker 2: this guy has sold part of his business to Adventist 328 00:18:24,160 --> 00:18:28,159 Speaker 2: Health because there's an Adventist community on the basis of 329 00:18:28,200 --> 00:18:31,639 Speaker 2: what I don't know what is the basis of this 330 00:18:31,720 --> 00:18:36,119 Speaker 2: twenty years of relentless marketing. But then there's the meta problem, right, 331 00:18:36,119 --> 00:18:40,720 Speaker 2: there's a deeper problem here, because this isn't a matter 332 00:18:40,840 --> 00:18:43,520 Speaker 2: of you've got a bunch of people going along with 333 00:18:43,560 --> 00:18:45,520 Speaker 2: a mail order scheme. I mean, in a sense it is, 334 00:18:45,680 --> 00:18:48,879 Speaker 2: but you have one hundred scientific papers on this place. 335 00:18:50,760 --> 00:18:53,280 Speaker 2: You have prominent scientists right at the top of the 336 00:18:53,280 --> 00:18:56,680 Speaker 2: field backing it up. Now, if it's made up, why 337 00:18:57,480 --> 00:19:00,359 Speaker 2: are they unable to say that it's a fantasy? See 338 00:19:01,880 --> 00:19:04,840 Speaker 2: and you know you find this again in Costa Rica. 339 00:19:05,080 --> 00:19:07,639 Speaker 2: The basis of finding the Costa Rican blue zone was 340 00:19:08,680 --> 00:19:11,320 Speaker 2: mister but paid a Costa Rican demographer and they went 341 00:19:11,320 --> 00:19:14,640 Speaker 2: out the next day and discovered a Costa Rican blue zone. Now, 342 00:19:14,680 --> 00:19:16,879 Speaker 2: when the un measured that data, they said that Costa 343 00:19:16,920 --> 00:19:19,280 Speaker 2: Eca was quote bottom, near the bottom of the pack 344 00:19:19,680 --> 00:19:22,600 Speaker 2: in terms of late life survival. So really the question 345 00:19:22,800 --> 00:19:27,399 Speaker 2: is why are our supposedly independent scientists not able to 346 00:19:27,400 --> 00:19:31,600 Speaker 2: detect a twenty year fantasy? And this is one of 347 00:19:31,640 --> 00:19:36,760 Speaker 2: the most popular concepts in this field. And I've had 348 00:19:36,800 --> 00:19:37,520 Speaker 2: no answers to this. 349 00:19:38,920 --> 00:19:41,360 Speaker 1: Why do you think this has gotten so much coverage 350 00:19:41,440 --> 00:19:44,480 Speaker 1: even in science circles? Like you said, I. 351 00:19:44,400 --> 00:19:47,120 Speaker 2: Think the science circles are just as susceptible to this 352 00:19:47,240 --> 00:19:50,640 Speaker 2: beautiful idea that things are better far in a faraway place. Right. 353 00:19:50,760 --> 00:19:57,240 Speaker 2: Most science is done by white, Western educated people, whatever 354 00:19:57,320 --> 00:20:00,399 Speaker 2: that label, that sort of catch all label throw on it. 355 00:20:01,720 --> 00:20:03,560 Speaker 2: And I think a lot of people those people are 356 00:20:03,600 --> 00:20:06,000 Speaker 2: the target of this marketing, and they've brought into it, 357 00:20:06,040 --> 00:20:09,560 Speaker 2: and now it's turned out to be bank they're hugely embarrassed. 358 00:20:09,560 --> 00:20:11,920 Speaker 2: I mean there's a sort of a field wide embarrassment 359 00:20:12,160 --> 00:20:15,199 Speaker 2: in the demographic community that we've sat around and just 360 00:20:15,200 --> 00:20:17,680 Speaker 2: sort of believe this. Not just the first time, this 361 00:20:17,800 --> 00:20:20,280 Speaker 2: is multiple times we've bought the same story and it's 362 00:20:20,280 --> 00:20:24,560 Speaker 2: turned out to be bunk. So, you know, in one sense, 363 00:20:24,640 --> 00:20:27,520 Speaker 2: it's just that we are susceptible to this marketing idea 364 00:20:28,040 --> 00:20:30,840 Speaker 2: that shangrile Ara is there and all we have to 365 00:20:30,880 --> 00:20:32,840 Speaker 2: do is go there and act like it and will 366 00:20:32,880 --> 00:20:36,720 Speaker 2: be fine. It's very alluring, especially because you get to 367 00:20:36,760 --> 00:20:41,160 Speaker 2: go for a holiday, beach holiday degrease. Right, it doesn't work, 368 00:20:42,440 --> 00:20:44,520 Speaker 2: but we've bought it. Anyway. 369 00:20:45,200 --> 00:20:46,600 Speaker 1: What do you think that says about us? 370 00:20:47,200 --> 00:20:50,199 Speaker 2: I think it says we're still in this mindset of 371 00:20:50,359 --> 00:20:53,840 Speaker 2: monster leone. Right. We want there to be a fountain 372 00:20:53,880 --> 00:20:57,400 Speaker 2: of youth because it's easier than the tough reality of 373 00:20:58,560 --> 00:21:01,760 Speaker 2: not just taking care of your health. But I get 374 00:21:01,760 --> 00:21:04,840 Speaker 2: asked all the time, what's the secret to living a 375 00:21:04,880 --> 00:21:09,320 Speaker 2: long time? One of the most uncomfortable answers is be 376 00:21:09,440 --> 00:21:14,360 Speaker 2: born in a rich place that has free healthcare. Right now, 377 00:21:15,240 --> 00:21:19,240 Speaker 2: especially in America, that's not a message you really want 378 00:21:19,240 --> 00:21:21,400 Speaker 2: to hear because you can't do anything about it. I mean, 379 00:21:22,720 --> 00:21:28,159 Speaker 2: one of the key problems in American health seems to 380 00:21:28,200 --> 00:21:32,560 Speaker 2: be that you buy fake medicines because you can't afford 381 00:21:32,680 --> 00:21:38,320 Speaker 2: real medicines. It's just a simple fundamental problem. It's not 382 00:21:39,400 --> 00:21:41,440 Speaker 2: the people who mind. This is not their personal fault. 383 00:21:41,720 --> 00:21:47,120 Speaker 2: There's a systemic problem here where if you have someone 384 00:21:47,119 --> 00:21:49,920 Speaker 2: who can't afford their cancer ments, they will buy anything, 385 00:21:50,720 --> 00:21:54,600 Speaker 2: and an industry is developed to feed that and this 386 00:21:54,760 --> 00:21:57,760 Speaker 2: is part of that industry. The longevity industry is as 387 00:21:57,800 --> 00:22:02,479 Speaker 2: part of this framing that we can give you a 388 00:22:02,520 --> 00:22:05,880 Speaker 2: secret pill that's ten times just so it's ten times 389 00:22:05,960 --> 00:22:09,040 Speaker 2: cheaper than the real stuff, unless you're pitching to billionaires. 390 00:22:10,480 --> 00:22:13,199 Speaker 2: And that has really rotted out the evidence base of 391 00:22:13,280 --> 00:22:16,320 Speaker 2: medicine here. I mean, it's really shockingly rotting out the 392 00:22:16,400 --> 00:22:21,400 Speaker 2: evidence base of medicine. We have these laws coming in 393 00:22:22,560 --> 00:22:25,720 Speaker 2: to the states that effectively throw out the hippocratic oath, 394 00:22:25,760 --> 00:22:29,960 Speaker 2: and they're being pushed by longevity research. The Alliance for 395 00:22:30,040 --> 00:22:34,760 Speaker 2: Longevity Initiatives is pushing this idea that we can I mean, 396 00:22:34,760 --> 00:22:36,600 Speaker 2: this is now a law on the books. You can 397 00:22:36,600 --> 00:22:40,280 Speaker 2: now give a person an experimental treatment of any dose 398 00:22:40,359 --> 00:22:42,080 Speaker 2: for any reason, as long as you say it's to 399 00:22:42,119 --> 00:22:45,680 Speaker 2: extend longevity, and if they die, you are not liable. 400 00:22:46,320 --> 00:22:51,240 Speaker 1: Oh wow, it's a little alarming. Yeah, we're going to 401 00:22:51,280 --> 00:22:52,679 Speaker 1: take a quick break and then we are going to 402 00:22:52,680 --> 00:22:55,320 Speaker 1: talk to Saul about the fallout that happened after he 403 00:22:55,440 --> 00:23:06,199 Speaker 1: released his findings into the world of longevity. So you 404 00:23:06,320 --> 00:23:09,199 Speaker 1: do this paper on the blue zones, and you have 405 00:23:09,240 --> 00:23:12,359 Speaker 1: this new book Morbid Debunking Modern Longevity Science, which is 406 00:23:13,160 --> 00:23:16,320 Speaker 1: an amazing read. And I also have to say, I'm 407 00:23:16,320 --> 00:23:20,520 Speaker 1: a writer. When I have to open books and read 408 00:23:20,520 --> 00:23:23,200 Speaker 1: books by scientists, I sometimes go, Okay, this is probably 409 00:23:23,200 --> 00:23:25,040 Speaker 1: going to be a little bit boring, but I'm going 410 00:23:25,080 --> 00:23:27,359 Speaker 1: to learn something and I accept that. Dude, you're a 411 00:23:27,400 --> 00:23:30,400 Speaker 1: really funny writer, and I loved it for that. This 412 00:23:30,440 --> 00:23:33,399 Speaker 1: is an amazing read. But so the paper comes out, 413 00:23:33,480 --> 00:23:35,840 Speaker 1: you got the book coming out. What happens when the 414 00:23:35,840 --> 00:23:38,600 Speaker 1: paper comes out for you personally? Like, how does the 415 00:23:39,160 --> 00:23:40,560 Speaker 1: how does this field react? 416 00:23:41,359 --> 00:23:44,639 Speaker 2: It's incomparable the feeling of stirring up so many people 417 00:23:44,760 --> 00:23:48,560 Speaker 2: all at once and having It's if I've cast out 418 00:23:48,600 --> 00:23:51,199 Speaker 2: stamp collectors and every stamp collector on earth is suddenly 419 00:23:51,240 --> 00:23:53,760 Speaker 2: emailing me like in old caps, you know, oh my god, 420 00:23:53,800 --> 00:23:56,840 Speaker 2: how could you possibly you know, run down the field 421 00:23:56,880 --> 00:24:03,240 Speaker 2: of flatly it's the torrent coming in is mixed with 422 00:24:04,280 --> 00:24:07,520 Speaker 2: people from other fields. They are laughing the backsides off, basically, 423 00:24:07,600 --> 00:24:12,080 Speaker 2: like I compare it to I'm a hedgehog that's accidentally 424 00:24:12,119 --> 00:24:16,000 Speaker 2: wanted into a balloon factory. You know, people are losing 425 00:24:16,040 --> 00:24:18,480 Speaker 2: their minds trying to get rid of me and not 426 00:24:18,640 --> 00:24:23,040 Speaker 2: knowing what to do. Really, And you know, I had 427 00:24:23,080 --> 00:24:27,359 Speaker 2: people emailing my boss they said you have to fire 428 00:24:27,400 --> 00:24:29,560 Speaker 2: this guy, and they're like, why is he a bad plan? 429 00:24:29,680 --> 00:24:33,919 Speaker 2: Scientists like, what's the problem. Some of the peripheral stuff 430 00:24:34,000 --> 00:24:37,800 Speaker 2: is accidentally hilarious, right. I opened the book with a 431 00:24:38,680 --> 00:24:42,680 Speaker 2: discussion of a gentleman from Moscow who has decided the 432 00:24:42,680 --> 00:24:45,320 Speaker 2: world's oldest woman is a fake, which is, you know, 433 00:24:45,359 --> 00:24:48,040 Speaker 2: it's fine, wants to dig up the corpse, wants me 434 00:24:48,080 --> 00:24:51,880 Speaker 2: to help, and has decided to see see the Queen 435 00:24:51,880 --> 00:24:55,040 Speaker 2: and Vladimir Putin and basically everybody he's ever heard of. 436 00:24:55,600 --> 00:24:58,280 Speaker 1: Into this just standard every day email. 437 00:24:58,440 --> 00:25:01,080 Speaker 2: Standard every day email. And I mean I have to 438 00:25:01,080 --> 00:25:02,840 Speaker 2: dig it up because I found out the beauty of 439 00:25:02,880 --> 00:25:07,000 Speaker 2: this is the apparently the Kremlin has to respond. So 440 00:25:07,040 --> 00:25:09,240 Speaker 2: I've got to find the Kremlin response to can we 441 00:25:09,320 --> 00:25:11,560 Speaker 2: players dig up the world's oldest woman's corpse which has 442 00:25:11,560 --> 00:25:15,280 Speaker 2: been on the ground for twenty years, because I want 443 00:25:15,280 --> 00:25:21,280 Speaker 2: to know it was Vladimir Putin's take on this obvious 444 00:25:21,800 --> 00:25:25,639 Speaker 2: why not reach out? You know, this astonishing sort of 445 00:25:29,119 --> 00:25:33,240 Speaker 2: Kingstone Cops approached to science. It was always deeply funny 446 00:25:33,240 --> 00:25:33,440 Speaker 2: to me. 447 00:25:34,280 --> 00:25:37,280 Speaker 1: Yeah, and then you pointed out and everyone gets mad. 448 00:25:37,320 --> 00:25:40,040 Speaker 1: At the same time, the paper is great and you 449 00:25:40,119 --> 00:25:42,680 Speaker 1: get a ton of you ge a ton of notoriety 450 00:25:42,680 --> 00:25:44,640 Speaker 1: from it. I mean, it gets covered everywhere like it's 451 00:25:44,640 --> 00:25:47,440 Speaker 1: a big moment because people go, oh, yeah, this this 452 00:25:47,520 --> 00:25:49,000 Speaker 1: makes sense. This guy's say it is right. 453 00:25:49,440 --> 00:25:53,919 Speaker 2: Yeah. I mean that's that's the beauty of having people 454 00:25:53,960 --> 00:25:56,160 Speaker 2: in parallel fields who deal with this kind of data 455 00:25:56,160 --> 00:25:59,680 Speaker 2: all the time. Because in epidemiology there's a joke, you know, 456 00:26:00,160 --> 00:26:02,440 Speaker 2: map is a poverty map. You know, you want to 457 00:26:02,440 --> 00:26:05,560 Speaker 2: look at disease prevalence. Every map is a poverty map. 458 00:26:05,920 --> 00:26:08,240 Speaker 2: But in this case, the poverty map is saying the 459 00:26:09,400 --> 00:26:12,040 Speaker 2: worst of poverty, the more one hundred and five year olds, 460 00:26:12,800 --> 00:26:17,080 Speaker 2: And that simple cognitive dissonance of you want to lift 461 00:26:17,080 --> 00:26:19,840 Speaker 2: to one hundred and five, be dead, broke and live 462 00:26:19,880 --> 00:26:21,840 Speaker 2: in the worst place possible. Is funny. 463 00:26:22,440 --> 00:26:25,159 Speaker 1: So I think one of the big bear you poked 464 00:26:25,240 --> 00:26:29,159 Speaker 1: is the sort of blue zone empire. Obviously. I mean, 465 00:26:29,200 --> 00:26:33,159 Speaker 1: as we've talked about, it's sold to this health corporation 466 00:26:33,320 --> 00:26:35,560 Speaker 1: for what was it, like seventy five million or something 467 00:26:35,600 --> 00:26:36,160 Speaker 1: like that. 468 00:26:36,520 --> 00:26:39,159 Speaker 2: Some insane amount of money. I mean, they are making 469 00:26:39,760 --> 00:26:41,600 Speaker 2: huge amounts of money. 470 00:26:42,080 --> 00:26:45,840 Speaker 1: Describing you, Dan Bututner, who's the guy who popularized the 471 00:26:45,880 --> 00:26:49,560 Speaker 1: blue zones? He said the following quote. Saul Newman is 472 00:26:49,560 --> 00:26:54,960 Speaker 1: a plant biologist with no academic training or expertise in demography, gerontology, 473 00:26:55,119 --> 00:26:58,280 Speaker 1: or geriatrics, and has no record of publication in these 474 00:26:58,280 --> 00:27:02,520 Speaker 1: fields of study. He will fully omits or misunderstands the 475 00:27:02,640 --> 00:27:08,479 Speaker 1: rigorous age verification and statistical analysis involved in identifying blue zones. 476 00:27:09,600 --> 00:27:12,600 Speaker 1: What is your response, I've. 477 00:27:12,440 --> 00:27:17,800 Speaker 2: Been a demographer at the University of Oxford for five years. Right, 478 00:27:18,400 --> 00:27:23,120 Speaker 2: he's completely made it up. And what It's amazing that 479 00:27:23,960 --> 00:27:26,880 Speaker 2: there's now a scientific paper that says the same thing, 480 00:27:28,280 --> 00:27:30,000 Speaker 2: and then I know of there might be it seems 481 00:27:30,000 --> 00:27:33,160 Speaker 2: that there appears to be multiple and the beautiful irony 482 00:27:33,200 --> 00:27:36,000 Speaker 2: here is if you're claiming to be very good at 483 00:27:36,119 --> 00:27:41,680 Speaker 2: understanding people's life history and records and you can't detect 484 00:27:41,720 --> 00:27:43,720 Speaker 2: that the guy at the University of Oxford at the 485 00:27:43,760 --> 00:27:49,680 Speaker 2: Lever Hume Center for Demographic Science as a demographer, like, 486 00:27:50,240 --> 00:27:55,159 Speaker 2: if that is beyond your powers of comprehension, what are 487 00:27:55,200 --> 00:27:59,960 Speaker 2: you doing? Like? Should I trust you? No? Not as 488 00:28:00,000 --> 00:28:01,000 Speaker 2: as far as I could kick you. 489 00:28:03,359 --> 00:28:05,160 Speaker 1: Quick break, and then we're going to talk about why 490 00:28:05,240 --> 00:28:08,359 Speaker 1: it's important to set the record straight on these topics. 491 00:28:15,400 --> 00:28:17,440 Speaker 1: So let's talk more. I mean, you kind of alluded 492 00:28:17,440 --> 00:28:21,639 Speaker 1: to this, but what's the harm in this data being wrong? 493 00:28:22,160 --> 00:28:25,800 Speaker 1: So do you feel like you're correcting the record or 494 00:28:25,920 --> 00:28:28,240 Speaker 1: is there actually harm in all this being wrong? 495 00:28:29,000 --> 00:28:31,919 Speaker 2: I mean there's a temptation to still see this is okay. 496 00:28:33,240 --> 00:28:35,040 Speaker 2: I'm fighting out a pub trivia and this is the 497 00:28:35,080 --> 00:28:39,560 Speaker 2: way I initially saw this problem. But there's an extraordinary 498 00:28:39,560 --> 00:28:45,720 Speaker 2: problem nested in this because we use this extreme old 499 00:28:45,760 --> 00:28:48,160 Speaker 2: age data as hound model for the future. We have 500 00:28:48,160 --> 00:28:51,960 Speaker 2: this optimistic model that things are going to get better 501 00:28:52,000 --> 00:28:53,960 Speaker 2: in the future. So if we want to project what's 502 00:28:54,000 --> 00:28:56,120 Speaker 2: going to happen, we need to look at the oldest 503 00:28:56,120 --> 00:28:58,440 Speaker 2: people live today, because in sixty years, that'll be us. 504 00:28:58,760 --> 00:29:03,040 Speaker 2: It's a great assumption, right assumption. But when people are 505 00:29:03,040 --> 00:29:07,400 Speaker 2: setting your pension rates, when people are setting your life insurance, 506 00:29:07,440 --> 00:29:10,880 Speaker 2: when people are planning long term for healthcare, these are 507 00:29:10,880 --> 00:29:14,720 Speaker 2: the numbers they use. And you're telling trillions of dollars 508 00:29:14,760 --> 00:29:17,320 Speaker 2: of investment. I had a firm with three hundred and 509 00:29:17,360 --> 00:29:21,840 Speaker 2: fifty billion euros in investment. Come and talk to me, 510 00:29:21,960 --> 00:29:24,240 Speaker 2: Come and ask me to talk to them. And the 511 00:29:24,280 --> 00:29:27,240 Speaker 2: reason is that they are using late life mortality models 512 00:29:27,240 --> 00:29:30,280 Speaker 2: based off this data to say how much you have 513 00:29:30,360 --> 00:29:34,080 Speaker 2: to pay into your pension. Right, because if I start 514 00:29:34,120 --> 00:29:40,360 Speaker 2: working now, I'm retiring, you know, in fifty years. And 515 00:29:40,400 --> 00:29:44,440 Speaker 2: the fact that they've been using this completely you know, 516 00:29:44,720 --> 00:29:52,120 Speaker 2: trash data to estimate those rates is very disturbing. I 517 00:29:52,160 --> 00:29:56,560 Speaker 2: mean it's extremely disturbing. One of the people a sort 518 00:29:56,560 --> 00:30:00,920 Speaker 2: of throw a pebble at in this book is responsible 519 00:30:00,960 --> 00:30:03,640 Speaker 2: for validating more than fifty percent of the one hundred 520 00:30:03,640 --> 00:30:04,680 Speaker 2: and five year olds in the world. 521 00:30:05,560 --> 00:30:10,320 Speaker 1: Yeah, and for the average listener, if these pension rates 522 00:30:10,320 --> 00:30:12,560 Speaker 1: are assuming someone's going to die much older than they 523 00:30:12,560 --> 00:30:14,240 Speaker 1: probably will, you're going to have to pay more because 524 00:30:14,240 --> 00:30:16,000 Speaker 1: they're assuming you're going to live longer than you will 525 00:30:16,680 --> 00:30:17,120 Speaker 1: you have to. 526 00:30:17,040 --> 00:30:20,480 Speaker 2: Pay way more every single day. Every single day you'll 527 00:30:20,480 --> 00:30:24,680 Speaker 2: have to pay more. Right, And so it's that it 528 00:30:24,760 --> 00:30:26,920 Speaker 2: is that simple, and it's that shocking that it has 529 00:30:26,960 --> 00:30:29,440 Speaker 2: its direct effect. You know, the difference between nine and 530 00:30:29,560 --> 00:30:32,560 Speaker 2: ten percent going to your pension rate is decided by 531 00:30:33,560 --> 00:30:36,600 Speaker 2: people in London who set the insurance rates that base 532 00:30:36,720 --> 00:30:39,720 Speaker 2: their decisions off my colleagues at the University of Oxford, 533 00:30:40,440 --> 00:30:45,400 Speaker 2: and governments who base their data off off United Nations 534 00:30:45,560 --> 00:30:48,840 Speaker 2: estimates of the oldest people in life today. Now I 535 00:30:48,880 --> 00:30:51,959 Speaker 2: haven't just published the funny paper. I've got a paper 536 00:30:52,080 --> 00:30:55,120 Speaker 2: examining every one hundred year old in the world since 537 00:30:55,240 --> 00:31:00,280 Speaker 2: from nineteen fifties until now, measured by the UN done 538 00:31:00,280 --> 00:31:04,120 Speaker 2: to a categorically garbage. They are garbage. I mean, it's 539 00:31:04,200 --> 00:31:08,600 Speaker 2: really clear. Yeah, I mean, according to the UN estimates 540 00:31:08,600 --> 00:31:13,040 Speaker 2: their best estimates, the top one of the top ten 541 00:31:13,080 --> 00:31:15,880 Speaker 2: countries in the world for people reaching age one hundred 542 00:31:16,000 --> 00:31:17,760 Speaker 2: is also one of the bottom ten in the world 543 00:31:17,800 --> 00:31:18,880 Speaker 2: for average longevity. 544 00:31:19,080 --> 00:31:19,840 Speaker 1: How does that work? 545 00:31:21,120 --> 00:31:24,320 Speaker 2: Good question? No one has even asked that question at 546 00:31:24,320 --> 00:31:27,560 Speaker 2: the UN right, and it's not alone. You know that 547 00:31:27,680 --> 00:31:31,160 Speaker 2: in the top ten is Western Sahara doesn't have a government. 548 00:31:31,560 --> 00:31:33,200 Speaker 2: It's one of the ten best places in the world 549 00:31:33,200 --> 00:31:37,360 Speaker 2: for people reaching age one hundred according to the UN. Malawi, 550 00:31:37,400 --> 00:31:40,200 Speaker 2: which is, like I said, bottom ten Kenya, which is 551 00:31:40,200 --> 00:31:44,440 Speaker 2: bottom ten. Puerto Rico makes it in. Now. Puerto Rico 552 00:31:44,520 --> 00:31:50,440 Speaker 2: is a very interesting case because they had a very 553 00:31:50,760 --> 00:31:54,840 Speaker 2: long running berth certificate system. But I can buy one. 554 00:31:56,000 --> 00:31:59,920 Speaker 2: It's trivial to buy about Puerto Rican bersertificate. They won't fit, 555 00:32:00,520 --> 00:32:05,440 Speaker 2: you know, because I don't sound very Puerto Rican if 556 00:32:05,480 --> 00:32:09,880 Speaker 2: you haven't noticed. But it's around six thousand dollars. And 557 00:32:10,080 --> 00:32:13,000 Speaker 2: this got so systemically bad that in twenty ten, Puerto 558 00:32:13,080 --> 00:32:16,280 Speaker 2: Rico simply decided, look, we're giving up on birth certificates. Yes, 559 00:32:16,440 --> 00:32:19,120 Speaker 2: we're part of the richest nation on earth. Yes the 560 00:32:19,240 --> 00:32:24,160 Speaker 2: NSA is crawling up everybody's backsides through their iPhones, but 561 00:32:25,080 --> 00:32:28,520 Speaker 2: we give up and we're restarting. Now. That gives you 562 00:32:28,560 --> 00:32:31,160 Speaker 2: an idea of the systemic problems that are just being 563 00:32:31,160 --> 00:32:34,360 Speaker 2: glossed over here, because you know, when it comes to 564 00:32:34,400 --> 00:32:37,480 Speaker 2: measuring age, we only have paperwork, that's it. 565 00:32:38,040 --> 00:32:42,680 Speaker 1: Do we have any sense of who the actually actual 566 00:32:42,880 --> 00:32:46,080 Speaker 1: oldest living human has ever been? That we're firm on. 567 00:32:47,120 --> 00:32:52,480 Speaker 2: Not the foggiest not the foggiest, not the foggiest idea. Right. 568 00:32:53,200 --> 00:32:55,320 Speaker 2: I looked at the world's oldest man. Right, the world's 569 00:32:55,320 --> 00:33:00,320 Speaker 2: oldest man. He has this paper validating everything. Okay, one 570 00:33:00,360 --> 00:33:06,080 Speaker 2: of his birthdays was by admission, made up by his family. Right, 571 00:33:06,240 --> 00:33:11,400 Speaker 2: it's a problem. Number one. Number two is the people 572 00:33:11,880 --> 00:33:16,640 Speaker 2: in the scientific paper write his age down wrong and 573 00:33:16,680 --> 00:33:20,120 Speaker 2: say he's born in nineteen eighty seven, nineteen eighty seven, 574 00:33:20,920 --> 00:33:25,400 Speaker 2: nineteen eighty seven. It's not a high level of rigor 575 00:33:25,480 --> 00:33:28,640 Speaker 2: going on. Yeah, and then he gets married to the 576 00:33:28,680 --> 00:33:31,080 Speaker 2: same woman three times, apparently without being divorced. 577 00:33:31,440 --> 00:33:32,240 Speaker 1: Good for him. 578 00:33:32,520 --> 00:33:34,920 Speaker 2: Apparently he changes his name, but there's no record of 579 00:33:34,960 --> 00:33:38,840 Speaker 2: this ever happening renewed vows. Yeah. Yeah, So like the 580 00:33:38,920 --> 00:33:40,920 Speaker 2: name he's born with is different to the name he 581 00:33:41,000 --> 00:33:43,560 Speaker 2: dies with, but there's no record of that name change. 582 00:33:43,600 --> 00:33:45,760 Speaker 2: So it's like, Hey, I'm born Bob Jones and I'm 583 00:33:45,960 --> 00:33:51,760 Speaker 2: dying Tim Horton and the wreck. It's it's just astonishingly 584 00:33:51,800 --> 00:33:55,760 Speaker 2: for the holes, but nobody. Nobody cares because it's a 585 00:33:55,800 --> 00:33:59,600 Speaker 2: story about a sweet old man reaching in an astonishing age. 586 00:34:00,040 --> 00:34:00,720 Speaker 2: One cares. 587 00:34:00,960 --> 00:34:03,800 Speaker 1: I've seen this television show it's called mad Men, Right, 588 00:34:03,840 --> 00:34:08,840 Speaker 1: It's like he enters the war as Dick Whitman. Dondreper dies, 589 00:34:08,880 --> 00:34:11,399 Speaker 1: so he takes his identity and that explains it all. 590 00:34:11,880 --> 00:34:17,000 Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, well, it's surprisingly easy to commit pension from 591 00:34:17,000 --> 00:34:20,600 Speaker 2: I'm not advocating anything here, but one of the few 592 00:34:20,640 --> 00:34:23,439 Speaker 2: people I have sympathy for in this story is there's 593 00:34:23,480 --> 00:34:26,960 Speaker 2: a bunch of cheeky old people out there who their 594 00:34:27,000 --> 00:34:29,040 Speaker 2: mom or dad dies and they just don't tell anyone, 595 00:34:29,840 --> 00:34:32,640 Speaker 2: right Like, the Greeks and towns are fantastic at this. 596 00:34:32,680 --> 00:34:36,919 Speaker 2: They're just like, don't ask any don't ask me. He's fine, 597 00:34:36,960 --> 00:34:40,799 Speaker 2: He's just on holidays in Gifuod Prefecture, right Like. It's 598 00:34:40,840 --> 00:34:46,319 Speaker 2: sort of there's this fantastic process and if you just 599 00:34:46,440 --> 00:34:50,240 Speaker 2: don't tell anybody, it's not like there's a giant machine 600 00:34:50,280 --> 00:34:52,680 Speaker 2: in the government that goes you know, there's not a 601 00:34:52,719 --> 00:34:57,279 Speaker 2: death radar that tells you this guy's dead. So it 602 00:34:57,440 --> 00:35:00,840 Speaker 2: just keeps sending the pension check every month, and it 603 00:35:00,880 --> 00:35:01,759 Speaker 2: happens all the time. 604 00:35:02,520 --> 00:35:06,439 Speaker 1: So so amazing. I mean, I think at an individual level, 605 00:35:06,600 --> 00:35:08,560 Speaker 1: I can be like, wow, these are some creative people. 606 00:35:08,600 --> 00:35:14,040 Speaker 1: I kind of admire their wit and cunningness. At a 607 00:35:14,080 --> 00:35:16,520 Speaker 1: big population level, I go, that's probably not a good 608 00:35:16,520 --> 00:35:17,840 Speaker 1: thing for that to happen too often. 609 00:35:18,160 --> 00:35:21,759 Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, that's right. I mean, at an individual level, 610 00:35:21,760 --> 00:35:25,279 Speaker 2: these people kind of lovely, like the Aggie Fenton used 611 00:35:25,280 --> 00:35:27,200 Speaker 2: to get people to buy a drinks because you just 612 00:35:27,280 --> 00:35:28,560 Speaker 2: go to the local pub and be like, I'm the 613 00:35:28,560 --> 00:35:30,319 Speaker 2: oldest woman in the world, give me, gim me ape 614 00:35:30,320 --> 00:35:30,600 Speaker 2: and be it. 615 00:35:31,440 --> 00:35:33,960 Speaker 1: That's awesome. We'll take a quick break and then we'll 616 00:35:33,960 --> 00:35:37,560 Speaker 1: ask Saul why Silicon Valley is so obsessed with longevity 617 00:35:37,880 --> 00:35:47,799 Speaker 1: and whether any of it is legit. All right, so 618 00:35:49,000 --> 00:35:51,320 Speaker 1: we talked about some of the money that Blue Zones 619 00:35:51,360 --> 00:35:55,120 Speaker 1: has generated seventy five million on the deal, and then 620 00:35:55,160 --> 00:35:57,600 Speaker 1: whatever all the books and all that. I mean, I 621 00:35:57,640 --> 00:35:59,479 Speaker 1: was when I was in Costa Rica, there was Blue 622 00:35:59,520 --> 00:36:02,719 Speaker 1: Zone sweat all over the airport. I'll say that. But 623 00:36:02,800 --> 00:36:06,600 Speaker 1: I feel like the new, much more moneyed version of 624 00:36:06,640 --> 00:36:09,319 Speaker 1: blue Zones is sort of happening in Silicon Valley with 625 00:36:09,640 --> 00:36:13,240 Speaker 1: this tech e longevity movement, which you wrote in the book. 626 00:36:13,360 --> 00:36:16,040 Speaker 1: Wrote about in the book. What's your take on all 627 00:36:16,080 --> 00:36:17,040 Speaker 1: of that happening there? 628 00:36:18,880 --> 00:36:24,320 Speaker 2: It's very simple. The if you're a grifter with creativity, 629 00:36:25,040 --> 00:36:30,640 Speaker 2: who better the target? Right? Who better? They've bought everything 630 00:36:30,640 --> 00:36:34,320 Speaker 2: else there's only one thing left, and that's this illusion 631 00:36:34,360 --> 00:36:37,919 Speaker 2: that they're going to live forever. So you have these 632 00:36:37,920 --> 00:36:42,640 Speaker 2: incredibly sophisticated grifts going on, and the best thing is 633 00:36:42,680 --> 00:36:46,520 Speaker 2: they don't have to be any different than any historical grifts. 634 00:36:46,920 --> 00:36:48,879 Speaker 2: You can just say, you know, I've got the tech 635 00:36:48,920 --> 00:36:52,400 Speaker 2: based secret to living forever. You could take something that 636 00:36:52,520 --> 00:36:56,239 Speaker 2: was sold to Emperor chinshi Wan, the first emperor of China. 637 00:36:56,280 --> 00:36:57,719 Speaker 2: You could sell it to these guys and they would 638 00:36:57,719 --> 00:37:01,520 Speaker 2: believe you one of the king. You know, sort of 639 00:37:01,880 --> 00:37:05,759 Speaker 2: processes I talk about is this idea of transferring young 640 00:37:05,800 --> 00:37:08,440 Speaker 2: blood into yourself. That's a way to live forever. Now 641 00:37:08,440 --> 00:37:13,480 Speaker 2: that's not a new idea. Dracula is a popular old book, 642 00:37:15,400 --> 00:37:20,040 Speaker 2: but it's also transparently. Obviously it doesn't work, and it 643 00:37:20,080 --> 00:37:24,280 Speaker 2: has not prevented the sales. It hasn't prevented the sales pictures, 644 00:37:24,320 --> 00:37:28,359 Speaker 2: It hasn't prevented this sort of the startup approach of 645 00:37:28,640 --> 00:37:31,240 Speaker 2: why you just slapped a couple of leaders of children's 646 00:37:31,239 --> 00:37:35,560 Speaker 2: blood into you, and of course the results are horrific. 647 00:37:36,480 --> 00:37:38,360 Speaker 2: You know, where do you get children's blood? Is one 648 00:37:38,400 --> 00:37:40,400 Speaker 2: of the things I deal with in the book. And 649 00:37:40,440 --> 00:37:45,200 Speaker 2: the solution is not great. But I also talk about 650 00:37:45,239 --> 00:37:49,560 Speaker 2: the fact that blood don't is a young recipients of 651 00:37:49,560 --> 00:37:53,120 Speaker 2: blood donations are old. It already happens, like the logic 652 00:37:53,239 --> 00:37:55,160 Speaker 2: just is not there. This is one of the most common, 653 00:37:55,640 --> 00:37:59,040 Speaker 2: if not the most common medical procedure in the world, 654 00:37:59,120 --> 00:38:00,920 Speaker 2: to give a blood transfer usion. It doesn't make your 655 00:38:00,960 --> 00:38:06,960 Speaker 2: age backwards. But you have this ecosystem of people selling 656 00:38:07,120 --> 00:38:12,000 Speaker 2: anything they can to billionaires on any basis, and this 657 00:38:12,080 --> 00:38:15,399 Speaker 2: has fallen into this this ecosystem. There are plenty of others. 658 00:38:15,440 --> 00:38:18,799 Speaker 2: There's plenty of magic pills floating around Silicon Valley, none 659 00:38:18,800 --> 00:38:24,400 Speaker 2: of which work. But it is creating an extraordinary problem 660 00:38:25,200 --> 00:38:27,520 Speaker 2: because to be able to do this, you have to 661 00:38:27,520 --> 00:38:30,800 Speaker 2: throw out the evidence base of medicine. You have to 662 00:38:30,840 --> 00:38:35,279 Speaker 2: be able to ignore the hippocratic earth. And there is 663 00:38:35,320 --> 00:38:39,040 Speaker 2: now a concerted push to do that, and it's it's 664 00:38:39,160 --> 00:38:39,920 Speaker 2: highly effective. 665 00:38:40,520 --> 00:38:44,160 Speaker 1: I went to this, This was a sort of work 666 00:38:44,400 --> 00:38:48,560 Speaker 1: reporting task. I went to a longevity conference in Las Vegas, 667 00:38:49,400 --> 00:38:52,400 Speaker 1: and you know, tons of people, they are super interested 668 00:38:52,440 --> 00:38:54,960 Speaker 1: in longevity. There's all these booths with all these different 669 00:38:55,000 --> 00:39:00,200 Speaker 1: supplements and procedures and X y Z and one of 670 00:39:00,239 --> 00:39:03,799 Speaker 1: my friends, funny clever friends text me afterwards, and he goes, 671 00:39:03,840 --> 00:39:05,640 Speaker 1: did you see anyone over that looked over one hundred 672 00:39:05,680 --> 00:39:09,920 Speaker 1: years old? I go, no, I did not. I did 673 00:39:09,960 --> 00:39:12,759 Speaker 1: see a lot of old people at the casino. They 674 00:39:12,760 --> 00:39:14,560 Speaker 1: were playing slot machines, and they looked like they were 675 00:39:14,560 --> 00:39:16,640 Speaker 1: having a lot more fun. I'll tell you that much. 676 00:39:17,880 --> 00:39:20,480 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean old people at the casino is probably 677 00:39:20,520 --> 00:39:24,880 Speaker 2: the right metaphor to go with here, except the payoff 678 00:39:24,880 --> 00:39:28,400 Speaker 2: as zero percent. Right, I make this point. I'm going 679 00:39:28,480 --> 00:39:31,160 Speaker 2: to make it as well as I can. Now. Once 680 00:39:31,200 --> 00:39:33,399 Speaker 2: you're at age forty, the odds of dying double every 681 00:39:33,440 --> 00:39:37,440 Speaker 2: eight years. Just like clockwork, every seven or eight years, 682 00:39:37,520 --> 00:39:40,880 Speaker 2: your odds of dying double until you did. Now, a 683 00:39:40,960 --> 00:39:44,000 Speaker 2: lot of people get upset about that, understandably, but that's life. 684 00:39:46,080 --> 00:39:48,319 Speaker 2: There are a heap of people now claiming, especially in 685 00:39:48,320 --> 00:39:51,040 Speaker 2: that space, that they can reduce biological age. And let's 686 00:39:51,040 --> 00:39:53,160 Speaker 2: say they claim all the time, I can reduce your 687 00:39:53,200 --> 00:39:55,560 Speaker 2: biological page by ten years. Now, let's think about what 688 00:39:55,600 --> 00:39:59,399 Speaker 2: would happen if that was true. Every disease that gets 689 00:39:59,440 --> 00:40:05,120 Speaker 2: worse with that age would drop, right, it wouldn't just drop, 690 00:40:05,280 --> 00:40:07,640 Speaker 2: It would more than half your risk of dying from 691 00:40:07,640 --> 00:40:10,360 Speaker 2: a heart disease. More than half risk of dying from cancer, 692 00:40:10,400 --> 00:40:14,040 Speaker 2: more than half. You could run a clinical trial on 693 00:40:14,120 --> 00:40:16,600 Speaker 2: any one of these diseases and be one of the 694 00:40:16,680 --> 00:40:19,360 Speaker 2: world's richest people because you could do it again and 695 00:40:19,400 --> 00:40:22,480 Speaker 2: again and again. So, if you could reduce my biological 696 00:40:22,520 --> 00:40:26,280 Speaker 2: age by ten years, like really, actually do it, why 697 00:40:26,320 --> 00:40:31,360 Speaker 2: are you selling it in a booth in Las Vegas? Right? 698 00:40:32,160 --> 00:40:34,600 Speaker 2: Why are you not collecting hundreds of billions of dollars 699 00:40:34,600 --> 00:40:39,000 Speaker 2: from merk, collecting your Nobil prizes and going home. Because 700 00:40:39,000 --> 00:40:42,840 Speaker 2: it's not just the diseases that kill you. Every disease 701 00:40:42,840 --> 00:40:46,560 Speaker 2: that gets worth worse with age, bolding, a rectile dysfunction, 702 00:40:47,239 --> 00:40:50,960 Speaker 2: you know, whatever it is, whatever insanely profitable thing it is, 703 00:40:51,000 --> 00:40:53,640 Speaker 2: If you can reduce that by ten years, biologically you're 704 00:40:53,640 --> 00:40:57,960 Speaker 2: more than halved to the rate. So why are you 705 00:40:58,080 --> 00:41:03,240 Speaker 2: pitching to me on Twitter? Right? The answer is because 706 00:41:03,280 --> 00:41:08,040 Speaker 2: none of this stuff works, none of it. It's you're 707 00:41:08,120 --> 00:41:12,279 Speaker 2: selling a skinny dipping less tripped to Ponstilion's family Youth. 708 00:41:13,200 --> 00:41:13,440 Speaker 2: You know. 709 00:41:14,040 --> 00:41:16,960 Speaker 1: Yeah, it's funny because I talked to a few of 710 00:41:17,000 --> 00:41:18,880 Speaker 1: the people who were running the boost and you know, 711 00:41:19,000 --> 00:41:22,120 Speaker 1: own these companies, and more than one kind of looked 712 00:41:22,120 --> 00:41:26,080 Speaker 1: around and said, you know, like ninety five percent of 713 00:41:26,080 --> 00:41:28,439 Speaker 1: the shit at this conference it doesn't work at all, 714 00:41:29,200 --> 00:41:32,359 Speaker 1: but mine works. Well, yeah, yeah, we do the math here. 715 00:41:32,400 --> 00:41:33,759 Speaker 1: How many people told me that I don't know if 716 00:41:33,760 --> 00:41:34,560 Speaker 1: that math maths. 717 00:41:35,640 --> 00:41:38,239 Speaker 2: There was a I had a beautiful study by a 718 00:41:38,320 --> 00:41:40,759 Speaker 2: lady who went to Sudinia and talked to one of 719 00:41:40,800 --> 00:41:43,080 Speaker 2: the hundred year olds and they said exactly the same thing. 720 00:41:43,480 --> 00:41:46,319 Speaker 2: They said, my birth certificate is real, but that lady 721 00:41:46,400 --> 00:41:49,000 Speaker 2: up the road like she's making it up. 722 00:41:51,280 --> 00:41:55,040 Speaker 1: So for the people listening to this, who go, I 723 00:41:55,120 --> 00:41:57,279 Speaker 1: kind of hate you because I've been eating beans the 724 00:41:57,320 --> 00:41:59,479 Speaker 1: last eight years because I was told that it would 725 00:41:59,480 --> 00:42:03,560 Speaker 1: help me live longer, and I hate beans. What do 726 00:42:03,600 --> 00:42:07,719 Speaker 1: you feel most firm about in terms of things we 727 00:42:07,719 --> 00:42:11,640 Speaker 1: can do to live longer? And then a sort of 728 00:42:11,719 --> 00:42:15,279 Speaker 1: underlying question is with these practices, are we lengthening our 729 00:42:15,320 --> 00:42:17,960 Speaker 1: lives or are we just not dying as early? How 730 00:42:17,960 --> 00:42:18,440 Speaker 1: do you think it is? 731 00:42:18,480 --> 00:42:21,719 Speaker 2: Not that the point of medicine is to make you 732 00:42:21,800 --> 00:42:23,680 Speaker 2: live a longer and healthier life. So if you want 733 00:42:23,719 --> 00:42:26,160 Speaker 2: a longer, healthier life, good talk to your doctor. That's it. 734 00:42:26,680 --> 00:42:29,640 Speaker 2: Not some not some cookbook salesman on YouTube, go and 735 00:42:29,640 --> 00:42:33,200 Speaker 2: talk to your doctor. If you can't afford a doctor, 736 00:42:33,239 --> 00:42:35,600 Speaker 2: if you're in that unfortunate position, then the best thing 737 00:42:35,640 --> 00:42:40,080 Speaker 2: you can do exercise, don't drink, don't smoke, Like I 738 00:42:40,160 --> 00:42:42,960 Speaker 2: know you want to have a beer after work, but 739 00:42:43,080 --> 00:42:46,799 Speaker 2: like that is the stuff that works. Now you can 740 00:42:46,800 --> 00:42:48,759 Speaker 2: add some niche stuff like you know, obviously don't do 741 00:42:48,840 --> 00:42:54,359 Speaker 2: crack cocaine underneath the Loma Lindow Overpass. But really we 742 00:42:54,480 --> 00:42:58,360 Speaker 2: already know what you have to do, and it's very simple. 743 00:42:59,400 --> 00:43:03,839 Speaker 2: It is free. Yeah, except in America for the doctors. 744 00:43:04,320 --> 00:43:08,719 Speaker 1: Except in America for the doctors. Exactly how has all 745 00:43:08,760 --> 00:43:14,040 Speaker 1: this work you've been doing changed your own habits thinking 746 00:43:15,040 --> 00:43:15,480 Speaker 1: in life? 747 00:43:16,080 --> 00:43:20,080 Speaker 2: It hasn't changed my habits much. You know, in terms 748 00:43:20,120 --> 00:43:23,920 Speaker 2: of being a sole custody data to kids. This is 749 00:43:23,960 --> 00:43:28,120 Speaker 2: as physically first you could be right, it's not. You 750 00:43:28,160 --> 00:43:31,160 Speaker 2: sort of do the best you can. But in terms 751 00:43:31,160 --> 00:43:33,400 Speaker 2: of changing my life, you know, as increasing amount of 752 00:43:33,440 --> 00:43:38,120 Speaker 2: hate mail. But also it's been extraordinary the degree to 753 00:43:38,200 --> 00:43:42,239 Speaker 2: which other professional demographers can just be bought, I mean, 754 00:43:42,320 --> 00:43:47,839 Speaker 2: really just be bort I mean we have now a 755 00:43:47,920 --> 00:43:52,320 Speaker 2: Blue Zones research institute. Despite the fact that Loma Linda 756 00:43:52,600 --> 00:43:58,680 Speaker 2: was on the drive to Vegas discovered from the freeway. 757 00:44:00,120 --> 00:44:01,840 Speaker 2: We now have some of the top demographers in the 758 00:44:01,880 --> 00:44:04,239 Speaker 2: world just saying I'll take the money and I'll come 759 00:44:04,239 --> 00:44:07,239 Speaker 2: and join you. Where is the actual basis of this 760 00:44:07,280 --> 00:44:09,920 Speaker 2: is highly questionable. It's coming up. It's sort of in 761 00:44:10,000 --> 00:44:13,120 Speaker 2: development at the moment. But I'm seeing the papers coming 762 00:44:13,200 --> 00:44:16,640 Speaker 2: through that are trying to They're trying to reconcile a 763 00:44:16,680 --> 00:44:20,560 Speaker 2: reputation of this idea without ever explaining why. For twenty 764 00:44:20,680 --> 00:44:24,200 Speaker 2: years an idea with no basis in fact was taken 765 00:44:24,239 --> 00:44:29,280 Speaker 2: seriously by the scientific community. So, you know, I talked 766 00:44:29,320 --> 00:44:34,000 Speaker 2: briefly about the demographer from Costa Rica who was paid 767 00:44:34,000 --> 00:44:36,040 Speaker 2: to fined at Blue Zone fines went in Costa Rica. 768 00:44:36,120 --> 00:44:41,920 Speaker 2: But this is the format. Mister Buttiner has no expertise 769 00:44:42,000 --> 00:44:46,399 Speaker 2: to speak of whatsoever, and seems to be very successful 770 00:44:46,719 --> 00:44:50,360 Speaker 2: at simply saying I'll pay a consultancy to people who 771 00:44:50,400 --> 00:44:54,720 Speaker 2: do have expertise, and they'll say things that curiously align 772 00:44:54,760 --> 00:44:56,720 Speaker 2: with exactly what the marketing hype says. 773 00:44:57,719 --> 00:44:58,800 Speaker 1: What do you think the fectsos? 774 00:45:00,080 --> 00:45:03,440 Speaker 2: If I knew, I would do it, you know, if 775 00:45:03,800 --> 00:45:08,680 Speaker 2: I had an easy answer. But I think the thing 776 00:45:08,719 --> 00:45:13,800 Speaker 2: we really need to focus on is that medicine was messy. 777 00:45:14,000 --> 00:45:16,560 Speaker 2: The history of medicine is brutal, and it got us 778 00:45:16,560 --> 00:45:19,440 Speaker 2: to a point where we have guardrails, we have safety. 779 00:45:20,400 --> 00:45:23,040 Speaker 2: We cannot just throw that away because people at the 780 00:45:23,040 --> 00:45:26,640 Speaker 2: top of government or people in a marketing company don't 781 00:45:27,000 --> 00:45:33,120 Speaker 2: like the burden of evidence anymore. And as a scientific community, 782 00:45:33,200 --> 00:45:35,799 Speaker 2: I think we need to really kick the charlatans out, 783 00:45:35,880 --> 00:45:38,760 Speaker 2: Like it's obvious to everybody who needs to be fired, 784 00:45:38,760 --> 00:45:41,440 Speaker 2: who needs to be removed? You know, you can't have 785 00:45:42,480 --> 00:45:44,640 Speaker 2: one of these people has tenure at one of the 786 00:45:44,680 --> 00:45:47,280 Speaker 2: best universities on earth and has sunk eight billion dollars 787 00:45:47,280 --> 00:45:52,160 Speaker 2: of other people's money into what are effectively supplements sold 788 00:45:52,160 --> 00:45:54,560 Speaker 2: out of Vegas, And why is that person still in 789 00:45:54,560 --> 00:45:56,920 Speaker 2: the job. We need to ask serious questions about, like 790 00:45:57,040 --> 00:46:01,320 Speaker 2: why why are we putting up with this removing For example, 791 00:46:01,360 --> 00:46:04,840 Speaker 2: doctor oz Is won the BIGGESUS Awards, which is an 792 00:46:04,920 --> 00:46:08,359 Speaker 2: award for claiming things that will be true when peaks fly. 793 00:46:09,280 --> 00:46:12,280 Speaker 2: He's won it multiple times. Yet the amount of blood 794 00:46:12,400 --> 00:46:14,480 Speaker 2: it took to get him off one of I think 795 00:46:14,520 --> 00:46:16,600 Speaker 2: it was the University of Chicago, I can't remember exactly 796 00:46:16,680 --> 00:46:19,320 Speaker 2: it took him to get him off a medical board 797 00:46:19,480 --> 00:46:22,239 Speaker 2: in a major university is extraordinary. He should have been 798 00:46:22,280 --> 00:46:26,759 Speaker 2: sacked day one, day one, and yet we put up 799 00:46:26,840 --> 00:46:30,399 Speaker 2: with We put up with the quackery. I just don't 800 00:46:30,480 --> 00:46:31,160 Speaker 2: understand why. 801 00:46:31,480 --> 00:46:34,560 Speaker 1: Well, I think one thing that as positive as the 802 00:46:34,600 --> 00:46:37,480 Speaker 1: fact that you and I are having this conversation, your 803 00:46:37,520 --> 00:46:41,319 Speaker 1: work is resonating. And I think once you get enough 804 00:46:41,360 --> 00:46:44,600 Speaker 1: public pushback, things start, People at least start to be 805 00:46:44,640 --> 00:46:47,160 Speaker 1: a little more on guard and they start to go, okay, 806 00:46:47,160 --> 00:46:50,360 Speaker 1: should we you know, what are the holes here? And 807 00:46:50,440 --> 00:46:51,920 Speaker 1: it might be a slow process. I don't know, it 808 00:46:52,000 --> 00:46:54,400 Speaker 1: might be fast processed. Sometimes things it's like you have 809 00:46:54,440 --> 00:46:56,279 Speaker 1: a moment, kind of like when your paper came out 810 00:46:56,320 --> 00:46:58,800 Speaker 1: and everyone goes, oh shit, we gotta we got to 811 00:46:58,800 --> 00:47:00,960 Speaker 1: get our act together. But I don't know. 812 00:47:02,760 --> 00:47:08,520 Speaker 2: Well, I think the heartening part of this is the public, 813 00:47:09,120 --> 00:47:11,440 Speaker 2: even when they're being tricked, they sort of have this 814 00:47:11,560 --> 00:47:14,200 Speaker 2: feeling they're being tricked. You know, they're smarter than we have, 815 00:47:14,200 --> 00:47:18,640 Speaker 2: a smarter than we give them credit for. Right at least, 816 00:47:18,840 --> 00:47:21,600 Speaker 2: I agree. I know that the public is very smart 817 00:47:21,600 --> 00:47:23,759 Speaker 2: at figuring out once I've been shown something as a trick, 818 00:47:23,840 --> 00:47:26,360 Speaker 2: like they know. If you ever doubt this, go to 819 00:47:27,520 --> 00:47:31,000 Speaker 2: a Reddit sub thread on something like a magician's show, right, 820 00:47:31,000 --> 00:47:34,240 Speaker 2: they figure it out, even when they're intentionally being tricked, 821 00:47:34,239 --> 00:47:38,480 Speaker 2: they figure it out. And I think that's sort of wonderful. 822 00:47:39,160 --> 00:47:42,560 Speaker 2: We just need the equivalent of Penninella up the front 823 00:47:42,640 --> 00:47:47,239 Speaker 2: saying this is how the trick is done, and the 824 00:47:47,239 --> 00:47:49,480 Speaker 2: public could very quickly latch onto that. So that's the 825 00:47:50,200 --> 00:47:52,920 Speaker 2: that's a really positive note coming out of this. You know, 826 00:47:52,960 --> 00:47:55,240 Speaker 2: you ask me for my health advice, but the public 827 00:47:55,320 --> 00:47:58,960 Speaker 2: know my health advice. They know it themselves already. They 828 00:47:59,000 --> 00:48:04,279 Speaker 2: know that America, honestly, you need free healthcare. You just 829 00:48:04,320 --> 00:48:07,000 Speaker 2: need it. It's something that is constantly there in the 830 00:48:07,040 --> 00:48:09,520 Speaker 2: back of everyone's mind that there's something sort of deeply 831 00:48:09,560 --> 00:48:14,960 Speaker 2: wrong with this system. And the more we're very explicit 832 00:48:15,000 --> 00:48:18,160 Speaker 2: about that and explicit about the fact that people understand 833 00:48:18,200 --> 00:48:20,680 Speaker 2: this problem, the more hopeful I am that it will 834 00:48:20,680 --> 00:48:21,160 Speaker 2: get fixed. 835 00:48:22,000 --> 00:48:27,680 Speaker 1: How was your work made you think about death? I'm 836 00:48:27,719 --> 00:48:31,719 Speaker 1: fine with it, honestly, great answer. 837 00:48:32,080 --> 00:48:36,680 Speaker 2: Like, is eighty years not enough? It's great to have 838 00:48:36,760 --> 00:48:40,680 Speaker 2: eighty years. You know, if you if you go back 839 00:48:40,719 --> 00:48:44,920 Speaker 2: to the past, the past is terrible past. It is like, like, 840 00:48:44,960 --> 00:48:47,080 Speaker 2: even if you have eighty years in the past, is 841 00:48:48,360 --> 00:48:50,680 Speaker 2: you know, people, the people, especially the right wings think 842 00:48:50,680 --> 00:48:53,319 Speaker 2: to love to harp on about Rome being this sort 843 00:48:53,360 --> 00:48:56,080 Speaker 2: of you know, tough and manly place where you go 844 00:48:56,120 --> 00:48:58,120 Speaker 2: around and be tough and find battles and stuff like, 845 00:48:58,840 --> 00:49:02,239 Speaker 2: you want to know something about them. The public bathrooms 846 00:49:02,239 --> 00:49:05,680 Speaker 2: had a shared sponge that's the toilet paper, right, So 847 00:49:05,800 --> 00:49:07,920 Speaker 2: you're going back and even if you're at the elite 848 00:49:07,960 --> 00:49:14,239 Speaker 2: tier of the past, it's terrible. It's terrible. So you know, 849 00:49:14,480 --> 00:49:19,200 Speaker 2: eighty years now is fantastic. It's fantastic. So just enjoy it. 850 00:49:19,320 --> 00:49:22,279 Speaker 1: Just have a good time, right, Yeah, your probability of 851 00:49:22,320 --> 00:49:26,279 Speaker 1: reaching eighty years has never been higher and never been high. 852 00:49:26,360 --> 00:49:29,080 Speaker 1: Those eighty years are going to be an all likelihood, 853 00:49:29,320 --> 00:49:31,399 Speaker 1: way better than they would have been had you met 854 00:49:31,480 --> 00:49:35,560 Speaker 1: him one hundred years ago, three hundred years ago, two 855 00:49:35,560 --> 00:49:37,000 Speaker 1: thousand years ago, whatever it might be. 856 00:49:37,719 --> 00:49:41,680 Speaker 2: Yeah, so much better. I mean it again, the history 857 00:49:41,680 --> 00:49:43,360 Speaker 2: of medicine sort of puts a different spin on this. 858 00:49:43,480 --> 00:49:46,280 Speaker 2: But you look at what people died of in the past, 859 00:49:46,520 --> 00:49:48,400 Speaker 2: and you look at how long they got and you 860 00:49:48,480 --> 00:49:51,560 Speaker 2: just think, Okay, no, we've we've lost that perspective and 861 00:49:51,600 --> 00:49:56,239 Speaker 2: we've lost that feeling of joy in existing. To some 862 00:49:56,400 --> 00:49:59,359 Speaker 2: extent because that constant threat of death is not there. 863 00:49:59,400 --> 00:50:01,640 Speaker 2: It's great that constant threat of death is not there. 864 00:50:01,719 --> 00:50:05,880 Speaker 2: But we don't need to sit around like anxiously panicking 865 00:50:05,920 --> 00:50:07,120 Speaker 2: that we're not going to make it to one hundred 866 00:50:07,120 --> 00:50:09,000 Speaker 2: and five. I think it's fine. It's fine to not 867 00:50:09,000 --> 00:50:10,080 Speaker 2: make it to one hundred and five. 868 00:50:11,960 --> 00:50:13,600 Speaker 1: That feels like a good note to end on. It 869 00:50:13,680 --> 00:50:16,200 Speaker 1: is fine not to make it two hundred and five. Well, Saul, 870 00:50:16,440 --> 00:50:18,160 Speaker 1: I appreciate you coming on the show man. Your book 871 00:50:18,200 --> 00:50:20,560 Speaker 1: is fantastic. I recommend it to everyone listening right now. 872 00:50:20,800 --> 00:50:22,400 Speaker 2: Thank you very much. It's been a real pleasure. 873 00:50:23,960 --> 00:50:25,680 Speaker 1: Thank you for checking out the episode, and thanks to 874 00:50:25,800 --> 00:50:29,160 Speaker 1: Saul for jumping on and chatting with us. We are 875 00:50:29,160 --> 00:50:31,640 Speaker 1: in your feeds twice a week, so please keep an 876 00:50:31,640 --> 00:50:33,640 Speaker 1: eye out for more. If you have a question for 877 00:50:33,680 --> 00:50:36,239 Speaker 1: our Ask Michael Anything section, please submit it in the 878 00:50:36,239 --> 00:50:40,040 Speaker 1: comments or send it to media at twopct dot com. 879 00:50:40,360 --> 00:50:42,239 Speaker 1: Even better, if you want to send us your question 880 00:50:42,280 --> 00:50:44,560 Speaker 1: as a voice memo or a video, we would love 881 00:50:44,600 --> 00:50:46,279 Speaker 1: to run that and answer it. We will try and 882 00:50:46,320 --> 00:50:50,120 Speaker 1: answer as many as we can. Of course, please subscribe 883 00:50:50,160 --> 00:50:53,400 Speaker 1: to the show really helps, and in closing, have fun 884 00:50:53,840 --> 00:50:57,240 Speaker 1: don't die, and if you do die, pretend you're alive 885 00:50:57,400 --> 00:51:04,520 Speaker 1: and keep collecting those social security benefits. 886 00:51:06,640 --> 00:51:07,200 Speaker 2: Classic