WEBVTT - NFL Draft Odds (Ep. 84) 0:00:00.240 --> 0:00:13.880 It's time to place your bets. Let's talk to the pros. 0:00:15.640 --> 0:00:17.320 Welcome in everybody to Betting Pros. 0:00:17.360 --> 0:00:19.239 We've got a great show for you today. 0:00:19.560 --> 0:00:22.079 We are getting so close to the NFL Draft just 0:00:22.200 --> 0:00:24.880 days away. So we brought in two of our fantastic 0:00:24.960 --> 0:00:28.080 experts from fantasy pros, from the fantasy side, because we've 0:00:28.080 --> 0:00:29.760 been doing a whole lot of mock drafting and we're 0:00:29.760 --> 0:00:31.920 gonna take that knowledge of all these mocks that we've 0:00:31.960 --> 0:00:34.200 done and try to help you out on the wagering 0:00:34.280 --> 0:00:36.800 at betting Pros. So I want to welcome to the 0:00:36.880 --> 0:00:40.080 show today, Kyleie Yates and Mike Tagliere. Like I said, 0:00:40.120 --> 0:00:42.280 we are getting so close to the NFL Draft you 0:00:42.320 --> 0:00:45.120 could basically feel it. You can sense it. And I 0:00:45.159 --> 0:00:47.640 gotta tell you Tags, We'll start with you here. It 0:00:47.680 --> 0:00:50.440 feels like, once again, you know, the crossover between fantasy, 0:00:50.479 --> 0:00:53.720 between wagering, between everything and our love of NFL is 0:00:53.720 --> 0:00:55.840 at a peek. It's at a fever pitch right now, 0:00:56.200 --> 0:00:57.760 and I gotta tell you it's kind of a fun 0:00:57.760 --> 0:00:59.280 way to watch the draft when you have a little 0:00:59.280 --> 0:00:59.960 bit of money in it. 0:01:00.360 --> 0:01:02.120 Well, I mean, we're we're gonna be watching the Draft. 0:01:02.120 --> 0:01:03.800 We're gonna be talking about the draft. We're gonna be 0:01:03.800 --> 0:01:05.240 going through like so I'm not even have time to 0:01:05.240 --> 0:01:07.399 think about anything. It's just literally is gonna keep going. 0:01:07.480 --> 0:01:10.880 And I can't wait because I'm tired of the talk. 0:01:11.120 --> 0:01:13.479 Like basically, everybody's talking in circles. It's the same thing 0:01:13.520 --> 0:01:15.120 over and over and it's been that way for a 0:01:15.160 --> 0:01:17.560 little while, and now storylines are being made up just 0:01:17.600 --> 0:01:20.480 to pump up interest. I don't need anything pumped up. 0:01:20.480 --> 0:01:22.240 I'm pumped for the draft. I'm ready for it, and 0:01:22.280 --> 0:01:23.319 I'm ready to do the show today. 0:01:23.400 --> 0:01:25.720 Yates, are you as pumped as tags is? Because, my goodness, 0:01:25.800 --> 0:01:28.080 I am pumped right now because of his pumpedness, everyone's 0:01:28.160 --> 0:01:30.600 just so ump. But he's right to a certain extent, 0:01:30.640 --> 0:01:32.400 is and he gates that at this point it is 0:01:32.480 --> 0:01:35.080 not only just talk, but it feels like everybody's just 0:01:35.120 --> 0:01:38.440 repeating the same narratives about certain things. And we all 0:01:38.520 --> 0:01:41.360 know that when push comes to shove, something is going 0:01:41.400 --> 0:01:44.440 to be completely different that nobody recognize all coming, and 0:01:44.480 --> 0:01:46.240 it's going to affect the rest of the draft because 0:01:46.319 --> 0:01:47.720 why it happens every single. 0:01:47.560 --> 0:01:50.640 Year, oh absolutely, And this has been like the longest 0:01:50.720 --> 0:01:53.600 three months of my life right where like the Super 0:01:53.640 --> 0:01:55.800 Bowl ended, and it feels like this is a very 0:01:55.840 --> 0:01:57.400 in the grand scheme of things, in the grand scheme 0:01:57.440 --> 0:01:59.240 of the NFL season and the off season, like this 0:01:59.280 --> 0:02:01.560 is a very small window. But yeah, it feels like 0:02:01.600 --> 0:02:04.040 this is just a six month long process of leading 0:02:04.120 --> 0:02:05.000 up to the NFL Draft. 0:02:05.120 --> 0:02:06.480 So it's still it's. 0:02:06.360 --> 0:02:08.200 Like getting closer and closer, but yet at the same 0:02:08.200 --> 0:02:10.320 time feels like it's never going to get here. So 0:02:10.760 --> 0:02:12.600 very excited to be here on the betting pros side 0:02:12.639 --> 0:02:14.600 of things and talking some NFL draft here. 0:02:14.600 --> 0:02:17.160 So let's talk about the first round right now as 0:02:17.200 --> 0:02:20.320 it stands with it seems like Wilson going second overall, 0:02:20.360 --> 0:02:22.680 so you're not getting any good odds on Tremor Lawrence. 0:02:22.720 --> 0:02:24.640 That's the lock, and then of course Wilson looks like 0:02:24.680 --> 0:02:27.560 the second lock. And next we've got Mac Jones, who 0:02:27.560 --> 0:02:30.480 looks like a minus one forty five over on betting pros. 0:02:30.520 --> 0:02:32.760 Then you've got Justin Fields at plus one sixty five 0:02:32.840 --> 0:02:35.040 to go third for the forty nine ers, Trey Lance 0:02:35.040 --> 0:02:37.840 at plus four hundred, and then Wilson, if for some 0:02:37.919 --> 0:02:40.400 reason something does change, you're getting a twenty five to 0:02:40.480 --> 0:02:42.800 one on him. So let's start with you here, Yates, 0:02:42.800 --> 0:02:44.240 in this one, because I know you and I have 0:02:44.320 --> 0:02:48.000 a very distinct feeling about this, which is the quarterback 0:02:48.040 --> 0:02:50.280 situation in terms of where we like them, where we 0:02:50.360 --> 0:02:52.399 rank them. We think the forty nine would be nuts 0:02:52.480 --> 0:02:54.799 to pass on Trey Lance, And I guess here's the question. 0:02:55.280 --> 0:02:57.480 If you truly believe that, as you and I do, 0:02:58.160 --> 0:03:00.200 isn't it clear that the bet on the board four 0:03:00.240 --> 0:03:02.000 to one is how you make money with Trey Lance? 0:03:02.440 --> 0:03:03.200 It absolutely is. 0:03:03.240 --> 0:03:05.480 When you're looking at Mac Jones at minus one forty five, 0:03:05.520 --> 0:03:07.560 I'm not going anywhere near that. I don't buy the 0:03:07.600 --> 0:03:10.200 smoke screen whatsoever the chatter that it's going to be 0:03:10.240 --> 0:03:12.680 Mac Jones and number three. Overall, you just do not 0:03:12.840 --> 0:03:15.280 trade multiple first round picks to go up and get 0:03:15.280 --> 0:03:18.200 someone of that caliber. And then with Justin Fields, I 0:03:18.200 --> 0:03:20.560 think that it's a worthy bet. But if you're looking 0:03:20.600 --> 0:03:22.880 to hit on this one, I think that it could 0:03:22.919 --> 0:03:25.240 be Trey Lancer. And so at those odds of you know, 0:03:25.280 --> 0:03:27.040 the four to one of that plus four hundred, that's 0:03:27.240 --> 0:03:29.560 really really solid, and I'm looking to lay it on 0:03:29.600 --> 0:03:30.920 some money on that one, all right. 0:03:30.960 --> 0:03:33.240 I think it's nuts tags to lay one forty five 0:03:33.280 --> 0:03:35.080 to win one hundred for mac Jones. I just think 0:03:35.120 --> 0:03:36.800 this is like one of the sucker bets on the board. 0:03:36.800 --> 0:03:38.240 So I don't want to talk about that, So let's 0:03:38.240 --> 0:03:41.080 talk about justin Fields instead, because Fields right now is 0:03:41.080 --> 0:03:43.839 a plus one sixty five. Now in your opinion, looking 0:03:43.920 --> 0:03:45.960 at this, do you think this is kind of that 0:03:46.480 --> 0:03:49.080 safe wager where actually you know what the odds are good. 0:03:49.760 --> 0:03:52.040 All of the buzz seems to be that Fields is 0:03:52.040 --> 0:03:54.840 in contention for that third pick. A lot of experts 0:03:54.880 --> 0:03:57.840 do believe he is the next best guy on the 0:03:57.840 --> 0:04:00.200 board consensus, even though that some of us are not 0:04:00.280 --> 0:04:02.839 in that same consensus. Do you look at Fields as 0:04:02.880 --> 0:04:05.880 probably being the chalky be here? But in a way 0:04:05.960 --> 0:04:08.720 good chalk because moving up to take mac Jones seems 0:04:08.760 --> 0:04:10.840 like the wrong thing to do if you're the forty 0:04:10.880 --> 0:04:12.600 nine ers, So it would make a lot more sense 0:04:12.600 --> 0:04:14.800 if it was Lance or Fields. Even though the odds 0:04:14.800 --> 0:04:18.000 are much better on Fields, Is it a good way 0:04:18.080 --> 0:04:20.520 to make a little bit of a better wager here 0:04:20.560 --> 0:04:22.279 in terms of rather him than mac Jones. 0:04:23.040 --> 0:04:25.400 I would not, I obviously would not bet on mac Jones. 0:04:25.400 --> 0:04:27.320 I'm not saying it's not gonna happen. You know, where 0:04:27.320 --> 0:04:29.440 there's smoke, there's usually fire. But at the same time, 0:04:29.480 --> 0:04:32.720 when you think about this, when San Francisco made this trade, 0:04:33.040 --> 0:04:35.159 there were rumors that they reached out to both the 0:04:35.160 --> 0:04:37.960 Falcons and the Dolphins, so they were talking to both 0:04:37.960 --> 0:04:39.760 those teams, which means that they were interested in one 0:04:39.760 --> 0:04:41.800 of those two spots, and they had to assume if 0:04:41.800 --> 0:04:43.479 Miami was going to stay there, someone else was going 0:04:43.480 --> 0:04:46.040 to trade up. So therefore, it's almost like the Falcons 0:04:46.040 --> 0:04:47.800 seemed to be holding out for a ransom that they're 0:04:47.800 --> 0:04:50.919 not getting from any other team. So me, it's like 0:04:50.960 --> 0:04:52.719 if you wanted three or four, that tells me that 0:04:52.760 --> 0:04:55.200 you're okay with one of the top four quarterbacks on 0:04:55.240 --> 0:04:58.200 your board. And Kyle Shanahan with the ties now with 0:04:58.320 --> 0:05:00.720 Roberts Salat out there in New York, it's like, I 0:05:00.760 --> 0:05:03.360 feel like he knows exactly who the Jets are taking. 0:05:03.520 --> 0:05:05.520 I feel like they know that in San Francisco and 0:05:05.560 --> 0:05:07.320 then they trade it up into this spot to know 0:05:07.440 --> 0:05:09.520 exactly who they're going to pick. I don't think that 0:05:09.560 --> 0:05:11.400 you're going to trade up this far to take Mac Jones. 0:05:11.400 --> 0:05:13.040 Mac Jones was a guy that a lot of mock 0:05:13.080 --> 0:05:14.960 drafts leading up to this was good was going in 0:05:15.040 --> 0:05:17.560 the teens. I think the Patriots were a team that 0:05:17.640 --> 0:05:20.080 was there, Washington was there, the Bears, those are That's 0:05:20.120 --> 0:05:22.400 the territory that a lot of people were talking about it, 0:05:22.480 --> 0:05:24.640 and everybody wants to drum this up, and Yates has 0:05:24.640 --> 0:05:26.120 said it all along that he thinks this is a 0:05:26.200 --> 0:05:27.800 Draft Nights story that they're going to be looking up 0:05:27.800 --> 0:05:29.960 to drum up, be like how far is mac Jones 0:05:29.960 --> 0:05:32.200 gonna fall? When in reality he should have been falling 0:05:32.240 --> 0:05:34.799 all along. So I do think that the best bet 0:05:35.040 --> 0:05:36.720 for me, it would have been justin Fields. I'm a 0:05:36.760 --> 0:05:40.360 little worried about this epilepsy thing that came out just yesterday. 0:05:40.400 --> 0:05:42.919 Actually it said that there were multiple NFL teams that 0:05:42.960 --> 0:05:45.719 this came through in his medical checks, So that's a 0:05:45.760 --> 0:05:48.320 little worrisome, especially when you're spending as much. So tree 0:05:48.400 --> 0:05:50.680 Lance at plus four hundred feels like he's probably the 0:05:50.720 --> 0:05:52.760 best bet, to be honest, I don't think I'm betting 0:05:52.800 --> 0:05:54.360 at all though, because I think there's a lot of 0:05:54.760 --> 0:05:56.640 there's a lot of ifans or butts with this pick. 0:05:56.720 --> 0:05:58.600 But if I had to pick one right now, I'd 0:05:58.640 --> 0:05:59.920 say Tree Lance plus four hundred. 0:06:00.000 --> 0:06:02.719 All right, let's move on to first player drafted by position, 0:06:02.839 --> 0:06:04.960 and we've got a consensus over here at betting Pros 0:06:05.160 --> 0:06:07.760 with Penny seoel and minus five sixty, they'd be the 0:06:07.760 --> 0:06:11.559 first O lineman off the board. Rashaun Slater plus two fifty. Now, 0:06:11.680 --> 0:06:14.360 is this as stark as it appears from these odds 0:06:14.360 --> 0:06:17.000 here in your opinion tags? Because most of the mockx 0:06:17.040 --> 0:06:19.560 we've done over on the fantasy side here have been 0:06:19.800 --> 0:06:21.640 Penny Sewell being the first guy. But we've heard a 0:06:21.680 --> 0:06:23.680 lot of buzz about Rashawn Slater. A lot of teams 0:06:23.720 --> 0:06:26.240 love him. Is there any way that you can justify 0:06:26.240 --> 0:06:27.440 Slater going over Seool. 0:06:28.040 --> 0:06:31.279 I am not laying five hundred and sixty on Penny Seowol. 0:06:31.640 --> 0:06:32.599 I good question. 0:06:32.880 --> 0:06:35.960 I I do believe that he's the first offensive line 0:06:35.960 --> 0:06:37.599 off the board, But I don't think it's a stone 0:06:37.640 --> 0:06:39.440 called lock. I don't think it's like Trevor Lawrence going 0:06:39.480 --> 0:06:41.680 to the Jackson. It's not that this is a bet 0:06:41.680 --> 0:06:43.719 that I would actually stay away from because Rayshawon Slater 0:06:43.760 --> 0:06:46.479 has not got nothing but like Steam going into this 0:06:46.560 --> 0:06:49.280 draft or Penny School, he held out and We've heard 0:06:49.400 --> 0:06:52.280 from multiple people that players that held out could fall 0:06:52.320 --> 0:06:54.440 further than you think because teams just have no idea 0:06:54.560 --> 0:06:56.440 what shape their in. If that year away from football, 0:06:56.680 --> 0:06:58.640 you know it did some damage. But there's a lot 0:06:58.640 --> 0:07:00.360 of question marks here. So if I was forced to 0:07:00.400 --> 0:07:02.400 pick one of them, I'd say Slater plus two to fifty. 0:07:02.480 --> 0:07:03.760 But I'm not betting either of those. 0:07:03.800 --> 0:07:07.040 Well, clearly sool is not even available. I'm sorry, mis 0:07:07.080 --> 0:07:09.200 five sixty is just nuts. There's no reason to ever 0:07:09.240 --> 0:07:11.400 do that. But is there enough helium right now with 0:07:11.440 --> 0:07:14.280 Slater Yates in your opinion to justify maybe taking a 0:07:14.320 --> 0:07:16.000 little look at this plus two fifty because this is 0:07:16.040 --> 0:07:19.040 a nice little odds here in terms of offensive lineman 0:07:19.080 --> 0:07:21.880 considering well, Slater's getting a ton of buzz here late 0:07:22.320 --> 0:07:24.559 or once again it's just just another classic smoke screen 0:07:24.600 --> 0:07:25.880 going on with the NFL guys. 0:07:26.160 --> 0:07:28.240 If you have to ask me just straight up, which 0:07:28.280 --> 0:07:30.320 offensive lineman goes off the board first. I do think 0:07:30.320 --> 0:07:31.880 that it's penny school at the end of the day. 0:07:31.920 --> 0:07:34.200 But rayson Slater is getting a ton of buzz, like 0:07:34.200 --> 0:07:36.560 you said, to the point where a lot of NFL teams, 0:07:36.600 --> 0:07:39.119 from what we've been told, have Raceeon Slater ranked above 0:07:39.160 --> 0:07:42.760 Penny Sool. Now it just matters the guys in the five, six, 0:07:42.960 --> 0:07:45.280 seven eight range. What do they have, right? Do they 0:07:45.320 --> 0:07:47.760 have Penny School over race On Slater. That's what it matters. 0:07:47.760 --> 0:07:50.960 So when you sent this list over, like, I circled 0:07:51.040 --> 0:07:54.280 O line right, because this is drastic that five sixty 0:07:54.520 --> 0:07:55.440 to plus. 0:07:55.120 --> 0:07:56.640 Two to fifty from Rayeon Slater. 0:07:57.000 --> 0:07:59.840 If you had to just pick straight up, I would 0:08:00.120 --> 0:08:02.560 would still lean Penny Soul. But if I'm looking to 0:08:02.840 --> 0:08:05.040 look at that action there at plus two fifty, I 0:08:05.120 --> 0:08:07.080 think that it's actually worthy of at least laying down. 0:08:06.960 --> 0:08:08.760 A little bit. Yeah, And it's kind of how I 0:08:08.760 --> 0:08:10.640 feel about that last one we talked about earlier on 0:08:10.680 --> 0:08:13.160 with the you know, the third over round pick. It's like, 0:08:13.160 --> 0:08:14.960 you know, if you want to bet big with fields, 0:08:14.960 --> 0:08:16.640 that's fine, but I would throw a little bit in 0:08:16.720 --> 0:08:19.160 hedge with tray lance just in case, because you might 0:08:19.160 --> 0:08:20.880 be able to hit pretty good right there with that one. 0:08:20.880 --> 0:08:23.920 Because I don't think that's an impossibility at all, And 0:08:23.960 --> 0:08:26.000 I think that's actually going to possibly change as we 0:08:26.000 --> 0:08:28.080 get into next week with the NFL Draft, So keep 0:08:28.120 --> 0:08:29.600 an eye on that one too. I think that's a 0:08:29.640 --> 0:08:31.760 line that might move, especially after some of the news 0:08:31.800 --> 0:08:33.960 that came out about fields too. Just keep a close 0:08:34.000 --> 0:08:36.640 eye on that one. Let's go to cornerback here and 0:08:36.679 --> 0:08:40.439 Patrick Cirtan is minus three h five on betting pros consensus. 0:08:40.520 --> 0:08:44.120 JC Horn is plus two hundred. Is there any way here, Yates, 0:08:44.160 --> 0:08:46.559 you see these two flip flopping or is Certan gonna 0:08:46.559 --> 0:08:48.560 be basically the first cornerback off the board. 0:08:48.600 --> 0:08:52.320 Regardless, there's absolutely a path for jac Horn to be 0:08:52.360 --> 0:08:54.319 taken over Patrick Surtan. Do I think that that's the 0:08:54.400 --> 0:08:57.240 right move. No, But Dallas Cowboys sitting there at number 0:08:57.240 --> 0:08:59.320 ten overall, if Sirtan and Horn are on the board, 0:08:59.600 --> 0:09:02.240 there is some significant smoke that jac Horn might be 0:09:02.520 --> 0:09:04.880 the corner that they prefer, just with his ability to 0:09:04.920 --> 0:09:06.880 be a press man across the board, be able to 0:09:07.000 --> 0:09:10.160 guard slot corners to big tight ends. He locked down 0:09:10.200 --> 0:09:12.640 Elijah Moore in college all the way out to Kyle Pitt's, 0:09:12.679 --> 0:09:17.240 so that ability would be really, really attractive for Dallas 0:09:17.520 --> 0:09:20.200 at number ten overall. So I think there's a possibility. 0:09:20.240 --> 0:09:21.720 But if you have to ask me just straight up, 0:09:21.760 --> 0:09:23.640 I do think that Patrick Sutan at minus three h 0:09:23.679 --> 0:09:24.880 five is still the way that I would. 0:09:24.720 --> 0:09:26.720 Go, yes, I'm glad you brought that up because that's 0:09:26.720 --> 0:09:28.480 something I was looking at yesterday, which is how good 0:09:28.480 --> 0:09:30.880 Horn was against some of the elite talent in college football. 0:09:31.559 --> 0:09:34.480 Do you think that matters enough or could matter enough 0:09:34.520 --> 0:09:37.920 in your opinion tags to put him over Certan first 0:09:37.960 --> 0:09:39.559 as the first corner going off the board. 0:09:40.880 --> 0:09:43.440 Do I think it's possible? Sure, But I'm actually with 0:09:43.520 --> 0:09:45.640 Yates in this one that at minus three h five, 0:09:45.679 --> 0:09:48.120 I think it's a fair bet. That's actually actually one 0:09:48.160 --> 0:09:50.600 I would do because I think if Caleb Farley didn't 0:09:50.640 --> 0:09:52.360 have the back issues that he did, I would be 0:09:52.480 --> 0:09:55.160 uncomfortable selecting him there because I think Farley was the 0:09:55.160 --> 0:09:57.960 better cornerback in my opinion. I feel like there's deficiencies 0:09:58.160 --> 0:10:01.319 in Cirtan's game, but coming from Alabama, if you're looking 0:10:01.320 --> 0:10:03.679 for something to tilt it, Alabama players almost always get 0:10:03.679 --> 0:10:06.880 picked before anybody else. So, Sir Tan to me, I 0:10:06.920 --> 0:10:10.040 think that there's another prop bet available right now we're Cirtan. 0:10:10.600 --> 0:10:12.400 The over under on where he's picked is ten and 0:10:12.400 --> 0:10:15.000 a half, and I would say under that. So if 0:10:15.000 --> 0:10:17.200 you don't want to, if you're uncomfortable with Sirtan or Horn, 0:10:17.280 --> 0:10:18.960 here if you're like, I can see it going either way. 0:10:19.120 --> 0:10:21.360 I think both of them can potentially be picked by ten. 0:10:21.920 --> 0:10:24.040 And that one that Tags is talking about is minus 0:10:24.040 --> 0:10:26.240 one fifty nine if you like that, So keep that 0:10:26.280 --> 0:10:28.480 in mind. That's a spot open there. If you like 0:10:28.520 --> 0:10:32.160 sir Tan going over under ten and a half, it 0:10:32.160 --> 0:10:34.360 would be the under there at minus one fifty nine. 0:10:34.440 --> 0:10:36.240 Is those odds. Let's go to the defensive lineman and 0:10:36.280 --> 0:10:38.200 we'll move on to some more of Tags as favorites. 0:10:38.679 --> 0:10:41.920 We've got Quitty Pay at minus two hundred, Azizoljari at 0:10:41.960 --> 0:10:44.680 plus one fifty, and Jalen Phillips at plus two hundred. 0:10:45.160 --> 0:10:47.440 Tags will start with you with this one. Quidty Pay 0:10:47.600 --> 0:10:50.360 is the favorite right now in your opinion? Is there 0:10:50.559 --> 0:10:52.800 any way you want to justify? Because these are pretty 0:10:52.840 --> 0:10:54.560 tight right now. This was a little bit tighter than 0:10:54.559 --> 0:10:56.240 some of the other ones we've seen here, but you 0:10:56.360 --> 0:10:59.080 got three guys who are pretty close. So I guess 0:10:59.240 --> 0:11:01.000 what do you do in of approaching this. Do you 0:11:01.040 --> 0:11:03.520 stay away for the defensive alignement because it is kind 0:11:03.520 --> 0:11:05.480 of tough to taill because every team does have certain 0:11:05.480 --> 0:11:07.520 schemes that they want to run, or do you think 0:11:07.520 --> 0:11:09.439 there really is a definitive guy that you're gonna put 0:11:09.440 --> 0:11:10.400 above everybody else. 0:11:11.679 --> 0:11:14.800 I honestly, I don't think that there's a right answer here. 0:11:14.800 --> 0:11:16.800 I don't think anybody knows who's gonna come to stay 0:11:16.840 --> 0:11:19.240 away for you. It really is because Quitty Pay is 0:11:19.440 --> 0:11:21.439 someone that people are doing some projecting in order to 0:11:21.440 --> 0:11:23.920 get him there and saying he wasn't used correctly at Michigan. Well, 0:11:23.920 --> 0:11:25.520 when you're taking a guy as high as you know, 0:11:25.559 --> 0:11:28.160 twelve fifteen or wherever the first edge rusher is picked, 0:11:28.400 --> 0:11:30.080 you need to know that the guy's going to produce, 0:11:30.120 --> 0:11:32.560 you know what I mean. Jalen Phillips, he would be 0:11:32.559 --> 0:11:34.600 the number one for me. I think that he one 0:11:34.679 --> 0:11:36.439 hundred percent would be the first one off the board 0:11:36.679 --> 0:11:38.760 if he didn't have these question marks, you know, retiring 0:11:38.800 --> 0:11:41.600 in twenty eighteen from concussions and then coming back and 0:11:41.600 --> 0:11:44.319 playing the way he did. Obviously that's fantastic, but there 0:11:44.320 --> 0:11:47.400 are health concerns there. We can't eliminate those. Oh, Jalari, 0:11:47.480 --> 0:11:49.640 I don't think belongs in the conversation. To be honest, 0:11:51.200 --> 0:11:53.120 I don't even have him in my top four ed 0:11:53.200 --> 0:11:54.000 rushers in this class. 0:11:54.040 --> 0:11:55.840 So well, if you're taking him out of their tags. 0:11:55.880 --> 0:11:58.320 Then that means Quitty Pay at minus two hundred, Jalen 0:11:58.360 --> 0:12:00.960 Phillips at plus two hundred, Yates take Phillips is I 0:12:01.000 --> 0:12:03.120 was just gonna say, Yates, are you kind of wear tags? 0:12:03.240 --> 0:12:05.800 Which seems like, take oh Jari out of it, and 0:12:05.840 --> 0:12:08.040 then that's a pretty big divide right now, you're between 0:12:08.080 --> 0:12:10.680 the minus two and the plus two. In my opinion too, 0:12:10.720 --> 0:12:12.560 it would seem like you're crazy not to if you 0:12:12.600 --> 0:12:14.040 want to lay down some money on this one to 0:12:14.040 --> 0:12:14.800 go with the Phillips side. 0:12:14.840 --> 0:12:17.440 Obviously, I'm in complete agreement with Tags on this one 0:12:17.480 --> 0:12:19.160 across the board where you say this is one that 0:12:19.160 --> 0:12:22.400 I would probably stay away from in general, because Jalen Phillips, 0:12:22.440 --> 0:12:24.920 if he was fully healthy, would be that favorite that 0:12:24.920 --> 0:12:26.520 I would say. I think that you would see the 0:12:26.520 --> 0:12:30.439 odds flipped if we knew that Phillips was completely healthy. Unfortunately, 0:12:30.960 --> 0:12:34.080 unless we get something leaked in the media about his 0:12:34.240 --> 0:12:36.800 medical history, we're not going to have that clarity. So 0:12:37.040 --> 0:12:40.240 Jalen Phillips, if I'm putting any money down on this one, 0:12:40.280 --> 0:12:43.000 it would be Jalen Phillips, just because from the talent perspective, 0:12:43.000 --> 0:12:46.360 he belongs above Quity Pay. But does the NFL, does 0:12:46.480 --> 0:12:48.880 Vegas know or like the odd makers know something here 0:12:48.920 --> 0:12:51.400 with quity pay over Jalen Phillips that we don't. So 0:12:51.440 --> 0:12:53.200 this is just one that I would probably stay away from. 0:12:53.200 --> 0:12:54.840 If I'm forced to do anything, it would be Jalen 0:12:54.840 --> 0:12:56.000 Phillips at plus two hundred. 0:12:56.040 --> 0:12:57.600 All right, now, before we move on to some of 0:12:57.640 --> 0:13:00.400 the individual teams, uh tag you high. I lighted a 0:13:00.440 --> 0:13:02.240 few things here, and I want to talk about this 0:13:02.280 --> 0:13:05.320 first one because one of the unders for the total 0:13:05.400 --> 0:13:07.520 quarterbacks the numbers five and a half, and you've circled 0:13:07.520 --> 0:13:10.679 this as the under, but it's a minus five sixty here. 0:13:10.720 --> 0:13:13.240 And typically, again, if you're gonna lay that much just 0:13:13.280 --> 0:13:16.760 to win, it must be an absolute one percent lock, 0:13:16.840 --> 0:13:20.280 and it feels like it is. Yeah, and it probably is. 0:13:20.400 --> 0:13:23.280 But still, how do you, I guess, how do you 0:13:23.320 --> 0:13:25.920 sleep at night making sure that you're gonna go for 0:13:26.000 --> 0:13:28.600 this minus five sixty just to win one hundred dollars there? 0:13:28.800 --> 0:13:31.640 Because to lay five sixty, even though you know it's 0:13:31.640 --> 0:13:33.959 a lock, that is a whole lot to lay down there. 0:13:33.960 --> 0:13:35.560 So why do you like this wager so much? 0:13:35.800 --> 0:13:37.520 I mean, it's a whole lot, but it's really not 0:13:37.920 --> 0:13:39.720 I mean, it's the same as that Penny Sule has 0:13:39.720 --> 0:13:41.720 got to be the first offensive lineman off the board. 0:13:41.800 --> 0:13:43.360 Like when you think about it, and that that one, 0:13:43.480 --> 0:13:46.760 to me has more whibble room. Every year they talk 0:13:46.760 --> 0:13:48.760 about quarterbacks that could potentially sneak in the in the 0:13:48.760 --> 0:13:51.559 first round. Remember Mason Rudolph, that whole conversation. You know 0:13:51.640 --> 0:13:53.280 what I'm saying, those quarterbacks, That's what I'm saying. 0:13:53.280 --> 0:13:53.920 You go to those. 0:13:53.800 --> 0:13:55.719 Quarterbacks and it's like Lamar Jackson fell He was a 0:13:55.720 --> 0:13:57.160 guy that should have went higher and he fell away 0:13:57.160 --> 0:13:59.760 to the thirty second pick, where you're gonna have guys. 0:14:00.200 --> 0:14:01.800 I swear some of these names they're bringing up are 0:14:01.800 --> 0:14:03.800 going to follow the third and fourth round. And I 0:14:04.040 --> 0:14:07.160 don't see any chance it gets, no chance it gets 0:14:07.160 --> 0:14:08.920 over five. I'm just willing to do it. 0:14:09.280 --> 0:14:11.240 You know what, I tend to agree with you. It's 0:14:11.320 --> 0:14:14.800 just a lot. It's a big you know, mayas five 0:14:14.880 --> 0:14:16.920 sixties a lot yates. Are you as confidences tags in 0:14:16.960 --> 0:14:17.600 as this number? 0:14:17.920 --> 0:14:19.800 Oh man, if I'm forced to take those odds at 0:14:19.800 --> 0:14:22.120 five sixty, that's just something that's a little steep for 0:14:22.200 --> 0:14:24.520 me to get me in on. But when you look 0:14:24.520 --> 0:14:26.520 at the names outside of the top five. Obviously you 0:14:26.560 --> 0:14:30.160 have your Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Justin Fields, Trey Lance 0:14:30.240 --> 0:14:33.160 mac Jones, and that conversation seem to be guaranteed first 0:14:33.240 --> 0:14:34.960 round locks. Well, then it's got to be one of 0:14:35.320 --> 0:14:39.200 Kyle Trask, Kellen Mond, Davis Mills sneaking up into that 0:14:39.280 --> 0:14:40.320 back into the first round. 0:14:40.680 --> 0:14:41.720 That's just not happening. 0:14:41.800 --> 0:14:46.160 Like, I'm fairly, fairly certain, ninety nine percent certain that 0:14:46.160 --> 0:14:47.920 that is not going to happen. But it's just that 0:14:48.120 --> 0:14:50.800 if it were minus three hundred, that would be another conversation. 0:14:50.840 --> 0:14:52.480 But minus five sixty, man, it's just steepy. 0:14:52.520 --> 0:14:54.320 See. That's where I struggle too. I struggle with the 0:14:54.360 --> 0:14:56.920 five sixty. And here's the other part that I struggle, 0:14:56.960 --> 0:14:59.600 which is, we're taking this at face value with the 0:14:59.600 --> 0:15:02.200 teams that are on the board at the end of 0:15:02.200 --> 0:15:05.120 the first round. But that's not necessarily the trade you're 0:15:05.120 --> 0:15:07.280 gonna be picking there, And I think the variable of 0:15:07.360 --> 0:15:09.520 the trade scares me. With that much juice I get 0:15:09.520 --> 0:15:11.400 it to me, it's just too much that I would 0:15:11.480 --> 0:15:14.560 personally stay away from this one. Mike's confident, and he 0:15:14.600 --> 0:15:16.960 should be. I think he is one hundred percent right, 0:15:17.360 --> 0:15:20.160 But that's small variable of any team could jump in 0:15:20.160 --> 0:15:21.920 in those last couple of rounds, and and you know, 0:15:22.000 --> 0:15:24.240 Kansas City could trade out or or a Tampa or 0:15:24.280 --> 0:15:26.080 somebody like that at the very end, because somebody might say, oh, 0:15:26.080 --> 0:15:27.720 you know what, we love this quarterback, which might make 0:15:27.720 --> 0:15:29.920 sure we get him before it flips over to the 0:15:29.920 --> 0:15:32.640 second round. It's not impossible. I mean, some people didn't 0:15:32.640 --> 0:15:34.520 think Jordan Love would go in the first round last year. 0:15:34.800 --> 0:15:36.960 Who would necessarily thought that not only would. 0:15:36.760 --> 0:15:39.480 He, but he was expected he was expected to go 0:15:39.480 --> 0:15:40.200 to the first round, but. 0:15:41.040 --> 0:15:42.400 Him in the first round. He was a guy you'd 0:15:42.400 --> 0:15:44.280 see in the first and sometimes at the second last year, 0:15:44.280 --> 0:15:45.440 and a lot of the mocks it was. It was 0:15:45.480 --> 0:15:47.560 somewhere debatable, But I don't think any of us thought 0:15:47.560 --> 0:15:49.040 that Green Bay Packers were gonna be the team to 0:15:49.040 --> 0:15:52.640 do it. That's or to trade up to do it. 0:15:52.720 --> 0:15:57.080 Right now, over my point, five running backs drafted in 0:15:57.080 --> 0:16:00.280 the first round. So basically we're looking at basically a 0:16:00.320 --> 0:16:03.120