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Speaker 1: Redline is one eight eight nine one hundred five to

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Speaker 1: two zero zero in Wyoming, or visit one eight hundred

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Speaker 1: gambler dot net in West Virginia. Welcome to The Favorites,

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Speaker 1: the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network. I am Chad Meman,

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Speaker 1: Chief Content Officer of the Action Network, and we are

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Speaker 1: oh so close, folks. We are going to start diving

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Speaker 1: into division by division, betting ideas, concepts, nuggets, everything you

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Speaker 1: need to know to prep for the NFL season. Me

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Speaker 1: and my bff, my companion, my compadre professional better Simon Hunter. Simon,

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Speaker 1: I know you've been waiting for this month so we

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Speaker 1: could finally stop with the riff raff and get focused

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Speaker 1: on the football since the Super Bowl ended. Yeah, I

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Speaker 1: definitely enjoy the time off from football. But once I

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Speaker 1: feel like, once the draft happens, you can kind of

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Speaker 1: feel the itch coming. And then once the air gets

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Speaker 1: a little hot up in the Northeast the June months,

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Speaker 1: that's that's really when it starts for football. Well, look,

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Speaker 1: with training camps almost felt like they snuck up on us.

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Speaker 1: And there's been no al right, right exactly, there's been

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Speaker 1: no shortage of news coming out of training camps um

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Speaker 1: and we've seen, you know, sort of the standard. Oh

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Speaker 1: my god, this team is going to be amazing. This

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Speaker 1: player looks great. Every day I hear about George Pickens

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Speaker 1: and the Pittsburgh Steelers. Every day I'm looking at highlights

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Speaker 1: of TOA and to re kill and all of a

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Speaker 1: sudden to getting some m v P love. Uh. Today,

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Speaker 1: we're gonna focus on the Great North, the a f

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Speaker 1: C North and the NFC North. We're gonna go through

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Speaker 1: every single team, both divisions. We're gonna talk about odds

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Speaker 1: to win. We're gonna talk about win totals. We're gonna

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Speaker 1: talk about odds to make the playoffs from Baltimore through Detroit.

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Speaker 1: From what we think might be the best of what

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Speaker 1: we think might be the worst. We're joined Action Network

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Speaker 1: Senior Analysts extraordinaire. He does it all, folks. He joins

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Speaker 1: me and Simon and convinced me. On Sundays during the

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Speaker 1: NFL season, he hosts the Action Network NFL Podcast. On

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Speaker 1: Thursdays during the season with Stucky. He hosts the Fantasy

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Speaker 1: Flex Podcast. He is Chris raybun Yo. Some guys, it's

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Speaker 1: it's that time. We just got We just got some

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Speaker 1: breaking news. Miami just their owners banned and they lost

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Speaker 1: their first round picks for the next two years. So

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Speaker 1: it's officially football season. Let's go listen. Yeah, that is

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Speaker 1: big news, and I think people are here. We're recording

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Speaker 1: this on a Tuesday. People are hearing this on a Thursday. Uh.

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Speaker 1: The Stephen Ross news is not is not insignificant in

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Speaker 1: that it is real reaction and real consequences for something

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Speaker 1: that came out of that Brian Flores lawsuit, which was

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Speaker 1: potential tampering with Tom Brady. It wasn't just um, uh

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Speaker 1: Stephen Ross who was impacted. It was a co owner

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Speaker 1: of the Dolphins as well. Find five dollars not allowed

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Speaker 1: to go to league events, Stephen Ross one point five

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Speaker 1: million dollars not allowed to go to events until the

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Speaker 1: owners meeting in plus the loss of the picks. Um,

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Speaker 1: we're gonna get to all that when we talk about

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Speaker 1: the Eastern Conferences, a f C n NFC, We're gonna

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Speaker 1: start a f C North Boys, And to me, Baltimore's

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Speaker 1: most interesting team in this division, not Cleveland, not Pittsburgh,

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Speaker 1: not Cincinnati. Because I do feel like there is a

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Speaker 1: positive regression that is due for the Ravens given Lamar

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Speaker 1: had a difficult year, a lot of injuries the defensive backfield. Raybon,

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Speaker 1: it felt like you and Stuck you were talking about

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Speaker 1: Ravens injuries in the backfield every week last year. UM,

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Speaker 1: I like everything about this team. I like him to

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Speaker 1: win the division. I like their over a ten and

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Speaker 1: a half, Raybon. I want to start with you minus

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Speaker 1: one make the class. It's probability plus one seventy to

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Speaker 1: win the North. Ten and a half is the win total.

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Speaker 1: Talk to me. I for the Ravens, I would go

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Speaker 1: with more of a like a long shot, but like

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Speaker 1: I would take them to win the A f C

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Speaker 1: or something like that, because I think they still have

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Speaker 1: a wide range of outcomes. I think the division is

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Speaker 1: still tough, and I think the defense's gonna be a

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Speaker 1: lot better. You mentioned they had a way too many injuries,

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Speaker 1: terrible injury look last year, but I did notice that

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Speaker 1: for the first time in a while, I thought that

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Speaker 1: Greg Roman really couldn't figure it out, and I thought

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Speaker 1: defense has really started to figure out Lamar Jackson last year,

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Speaker 1: and um, I think it's gonna I think the offense

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Speaker 1: is still gonna struggle a little bit, you know, they

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Speaker 1: say they're starting with their running backs on the pup.

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Speaker 1: We don't know if they're gonna be healthy to start

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Speaker 1: the year. They obviously lost Hollywood Brown, so I still

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Speaker 1: think the Ravens offense is going to be inconsistent. Eleven

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Speaker 1: wins is a high number, um, you know for me

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Speaker 1: to go over ten and a half. So I do

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Speaker 1: like them as a long shot to win the conference.

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Speaker 1: We've seen We've seen them, you know, do a lot

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Speaker 1: with less on on offense, so it's not as if

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Speaker 1: they can't. But it's since if you look at Lamar

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Speaker 1: Jackson's numbers, um, they've just been trending downward and pretty

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Speaker 1: much every efficiency category. And I just think defenses are

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Speaker 1: starting to figure things out, blitzing uh Lamar a lot more,

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Speaker 1: which you're not really supposed to be able to blitz

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Speaker 1: a quarterback that can run like that. So, um, it's

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Speaker 1: I am a little concerned about the offense, but I

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Speaker 1: think the defense will be very, very good and out

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Speaker 1: keep him in every game. You've generally been someone who

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Speaker 1: is ahead of the curve on analyzing quarterbacks, So when

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Speaker 1: you're saying that Greg Roman couldn't figure it out and

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Speaker 1: Lamar Jackson seems to have been struggling and hasn't played

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Speaker 1: up to his m v P level. That makes me

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Speaker 1: a little bit nervous when I'm thinking about ten and

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Speaker 1: a half wins. Simon, you've been studying film. That's all

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Speaker 1: you watch. You don't watch anything else. Tell me your thoughts.

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Speaker 1: Am I right or is Raybon right? I think raybonds

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Speaker 1: are in this sense that it feels like he's kind

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Speaker 1: of telling you you've missed the value on the Ravens,

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Speaker 1: which I have to agree with on the LNG. It's

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Speaker 1: like we talked what Chad three months ago when all

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Speaker 1: the Watson stuff was happening with the Browns and they're

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Speaker 1: the shining you toy and we were getting Ravens at

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Speaker 1: I think plus two twenty at VANDUEL. Now you just

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Speaker 1: sit there down plus to one seventy. I mean a

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Speaker 1: lot of people have there doesn't sound like much, but

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Speaker 1: to me and Chris, that's a big deal. Like you

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Speaker 1: need that extra value long term, that's how you build

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Speaker 1: up a bank roll. So looking at a number that's

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Speaker 1: up to ten and a half when it wasn't ten,

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Speaker 1: and the fact that they're always down to plus one seventy,

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Speaker 1: it's like, yeah, I like the Ravens. I think they're

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Speaker 1: the best team in this division still, But are they

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Speaker 1: that much better than the Browns? Are they that much

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Speaker 1: better than the Bengals to be the favorite at this number?

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Speaker 1: I don't think so. I think we've kind of all

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Speaker 1: you know, we always like to come into a new

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Speaker 1: season and be the one that's saying something that other

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Speaker 1: people aren't saying. I think everyone's talking about the Ravens

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Speaker 1: now right, Like we all look at them as a

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Speaker 1: team that was hurt last year. We're always looking for

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Speaker 1: a team to go from last place to first place.

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Speaker 1: They just fit that bill of a team that was

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Speaker 1: in the fourth in the division to win the division

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Speaker 1: the following year. So I do like the Ravens. I'm

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Speaker 1: just worried at this point as we sit here in August,

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Speaker 1: the value has been bed out, Like again, what we're

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Speaker 1: gonna talk about. We go through this division and I

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Speaker 1: got the Bengals at tend to one in middle of

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Speaker 1: Octo over to win that division, and like that's what

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Speaker 1: we look for. We're looking for crazy odds on these

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Speaker 1: teams that you know, they might have been two back

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Speaker 1: of the Ravens and they were playing the Ravens that week,

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Speaker 1: and that's why we thought at tend to one, that's

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Speaker 1: too big of odds to give the Bengals. So to

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Speaker 1: me is a value based better. I just wouldn't put

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Speaker 1: money now into the Ravens because you've already missed a

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Speaker 1: good number. You're you're literally losing money by betting this number.

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Speaker 1: Ravens are eleven to one to win the a f

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Speaker 1: C at Fandal, there twenty one to one to win

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Speaker 1: the Super Bowl at Fandal. Do either of you feel

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Speaker 1: like those odds are reflective of how good they are? Yeah?

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Speaker 1: I think those are. Like that's what if I agree

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Speaker 1: with Time and I don't really want to invest in

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Speaker 1: the Ravens now, but if I did, it would be

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Speaker 1: in that sense because I just the media at ten

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Speaker 1: and a half guess a lot um. The division is

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Speaker 1: wide open um. So I just think you have to

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Speaker 1: take a long shot and hope that they have another season,

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Speaker 1: you know, like twenty nineteen when they you know, we

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Speaker 1: kind of looked at their wide receiving horror. He said,

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Speaker 1: I don't know if it's gonna work, but they had

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Speaker 1: their defense. You know, certain things are similar. But again,

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Speaker 1: I just I don't know if that they're ever going

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Speaker 1: to replicate offensively that season with Lamar just because I think, Um,

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Speaker 1: you know, defensives have started to figure out that scheme

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Speaker 1: and you know the numbers kind of back that up. Well,

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Speaker 1: what do you think happened? Like is he not adjusting?

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Speaker 1: Can't players adjust both ways? If defense can figure out,

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Speaker 1: why can't Greg Roman and Lamar Jackson figure it out?

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Speaker 1: It's a good question. I mean, so what I saw

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Speaker 1: is that I think there's certain throws that Lamar is

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Speaker 1: just doesn't see quite as well or process quite as

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Speaker 1: well as maybe some other quarterbacks. And because they're receiving

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Speaker 1: corps outside of Mark Andrews, Um tends to be on

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Speaker 1: you know, one of the weaker ones in the NFL.

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Speaker 1: Um defenses and stead are kind of essentially four see

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Speaker 1: him to throw the certain spots on the field where

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Speaker 1: he's not it's comfortable throwing like they they want him

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Speaker 1: to throw like, you know, outside the numbers, they wanted

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Speaker 1: to throw deeper downfield. Um. And you know, we saw

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Speaker 1: the Titans kind of execute that same kind of game

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Speaker 1: when the year that Ravens did have that great year,

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Speaker 1: and ever since then, you know, it's been kind of downhill.

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Speaker 1: But last year it was you know, defenses were just

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Speaker 1: covering these receivers one on one, you know, and blitzing,

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Speaker 1: which is something you're really not supposed to be able

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Speaker 1: to do it against the running quarterback. You're not supposed

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Speaker 1: to be able to like play me a coverage and

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Speaker 1: blitz them like they they're supposed to make you pay.

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Speaker 1: But um, you know, unless Bateman takes a major step forward,

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Speaker 1: I just have this, you know the same concerns of

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Speaker 1: things going wrong on offense that that happened last year.

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Speaker 1: But again, the defense will be a lot better. But yeah,

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Speaker 1: I think that's what happened. I just think defenses are

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Speaker 1: figuring out where how to make Lamar uncomfortable and they're

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Speaker 1: realizing that they don't have to be scared of anyone

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Speaker 1: on the outside. For Baltimore, Oh so there were there

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Speaker 1: were the one seed, but four Lamar went down last year.

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Speaker 1: So again, like as much as we want to downplay,

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Speaker 1: it's like it still works. Like whatever he like, he's

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Speaker 1: that great, it could still work. It's just like Chris

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Speaker 1: talking about the more years in, the more they figure

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Speaker 1: out your weaknesses. He can't make these passes which he

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Speaker 1: needs to make Yeah, it's it's just a bad pick, Like,

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Speaker 1: how is he gonna win the playoffs if you can't

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Speaker 1: make those big throws on third down? The Bengals, uh,

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Speaker 1: the next in line to win the division. Their season

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Speaker 1: win total is at nine and a half. It's minus

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Speaker 1: one thirty to the over. Uh they're super Bowl odds

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Speaker 1: are I mean they're they're a FC odds are twelve

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Speaker 1: to one. They're super Bowl odds are UM twenty two one.

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Speaker 1: So bunched in there with the Ravens. Do they run

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Speaker 1: it back? Simon? I would stay away. I'm historically I

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Speaker 1: like the fade teams that lose the Super Bowl, especially

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Speaker 1: teams that have a young war just because you know,

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Speaker 1: I'm just gonna get to their head, right Like they

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Speaker 1: think they've been there before, they think they know how

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Speaker 1: to get there again, and we've just seen time and

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Speaker 1: time again. It's just really hard. Man, Like Dan Marino

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Speaker 1: made it as a rookie or is the second year quarterback?

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Speaker 1: Then Dannon Marino never made it back despite being a

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Speaker 1: Hall of Fame quarterback. It's just really hard to get

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Speaker 1: back there. So looking at the Bengals team, I got

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Speaker 1: Joe Burrow coming off, you know, they can hide it

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Speaker 1: as much as they want. We know he parsed me

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Speaker 1: towards the A c L R M C L. Something

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Speaker 1: happened there during that Super Bowl after that touchdown to

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Speaker 1: start the third quarter, something that happened. Aaron Donald hit him,

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Speaker 1: and there was something that happened in that moment where

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Speaker 1: he just wasn't the same. Now we see him riding

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Speaker 1: around on a golf cart. It's not practicing yet, right,

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Speaker 1: it's august. I don't want to make a big deal

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Speaker 1: of it because it's Joe Burrow. Like this guy. To me,

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Speaker 1: he's in that same pantheon as these other FC quarterbacks,

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Speaker 1: the Mahomes, the Josh Allens, the Herberts, of these really

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Speaker 1: incredible young talent to quarterback. So I love the Bengals

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Speaker 1: like I want to be in on the Bengals because

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Speaker 1: I just love the core. I love what they built.

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Speaker 1: They addressed the offensive line issues. I just have to

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Speaker 1: look at a team that historically the math works out,

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Speaker 1: the team will always take a step back. It's just

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Speaker 1: when you wanted to vision for the first time, when

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Speaker 1: you're going to Super Bowl for the first time and

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Speaker 1: you know the team history and I don't even know

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Speaker 1: is it their history. I don't think they've ever been

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Speaker 1: like I think, well what Boomer back in the day. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: So it's like, it's just a lot to me for

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Speaker 1: this since team with the expectations of you just read

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Speaker 1: the number, right, you had nine and a half. The

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Speaker 1: public has been pounding that number. They didn't move with

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Speaker 1: to ten. They just moved to minus one thirties. So

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Speaker 1: it's stinky. It feels like a nine and eight kind

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Speaker 1: of year for this this Bengals team, which to me,

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Speaker 1: that's not that's not horrible, right, that's like a seven

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Speaker 1: sixty get in the back door of the playoffs. It's

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Speaker 1: just not gonna be as easy it was for them

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Speaker 1: last year. So to me, I'm gonna be a downer

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Speaker 1: on this Bangos team. I'm gonna betting against them in

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Speaker 1: a couple of categories, especially they're over under. Do you

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Speaker 1: know what worries me about the Bengals And this story

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Speaker 1: just came out this past week, Zach Taylor and Joe

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Speaker 1: ma Sin have patched up any differences they had over

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Speaker 1: how Mixon was used in the last drive in the

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Speaker 1: Super Bowl. And if you guys recall, I mean, look, Raybon,

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Speaker 1: you were all over some of the under props for

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Speaker 1: Bengals running backs, and you were spot on in the

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Speaker 1: Super Bowl, right, And Joe Mixon all of a sudden

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Speaker 1: in that last drive kind of disappeared and they couldn't

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Speaker 1: convert on third and one and fourth and one, and

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Speaker 1: Joe Mixon was kind of pissed about it. And it

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Speaker 1: reminds me of the Russell Wilson, Marshawn Lynch, Pete Carroll dynamic.

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Speaker 1: That team never recovered from that. And there wasn't a

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Speaker 1: lot of love for Zach Taylor before this season. Joe

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Speaker 1: Burrow kind of made him look like a genius. Is

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Speaker 1: this a team that actually doesn't have the ability to

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Speaker 1: repeat because the coach maybe isn't as good because things

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Speaker 1: went perfectly for them last season. Raybon react and comment,

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Speaker 1: I'm not putting too much stock into what happened with Mixing.

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Speaker 1: I mean, he was just he was just a terrible

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Speaker 1: passing down back for most of the year. They tried

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Speaker 1: to use them on passing downs and they just stopped

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Speaker 1: because he wasn't good, and so, um, you know, that's

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Speaker 1: why Pete Ryan was in there. I wish he wasn't.

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Speaker 1: I still would have rather had mixing there in that situation,

305
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Speaker 1: but I think it all depends on Burrow. I mean,

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Speaker 1: Simon hit on it. It's like you see the warning

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Speaker 1: signs already because Burrows not practicing. Maybe he did get

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Speaker 1: injured in Super Bowl, but then he got the appendex

309
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Speaker 1: to me, so really he's just been kind of on

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Speaker 1: the shelf either way. So, um, I'm kind of hoping

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Speaker 1: that we hear like more of this negative news for

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Speaker 1: the Bankers because I think the Bengals are the best

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Speaker 1: team in this division. I think the Bengals, um, you know,

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Speaker 1: have the best quarterback. I think the Bengals, you know,

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Speaker 1: their offense, they did fix their offensive line. Um, Jamaar

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Speaker 1: Chases entering a year two. Um Tee Higgins is great.

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Speaker 1: You know. On defense, they have enough pieces as well. Um,

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Speaker 1: So I really think this is a like on paper,

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Speaker 1: the roster is pretty solid overall. They have that experience

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Speaker 1: of getting to the postseason, but it all runs through

321
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Speaker 1: Joe Burrow. So I think I do think they can

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Speaker 1: recover from whatever whatever you know, internal turmoil they're having

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Speaker 1: because Joe Burrow is such a great leader. But if

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Speaker 1: you know what where is he health wise? You know

325
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Speaker 1: how how much is the how much practice time is

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Speaker 1: he gonna lose because you don't want you know, everyone's

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Speaker 1: gonna be gunning for the Bengals this year, and and

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Speaker 1: to Simon's point that you know a team upstart team

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Speaker 1: like that getting to the Super Bowl. Now everyone's circling

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Speaker 1: the Bengals on their schedule, and so it is gonna

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Speaker 1: it isn't gonna be easier. They can overcome it, but um,

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Speaker 1: I just need to just to see more from Burrow.

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Speaker 1: So I'm just kind of waiting and hoping that people

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Speaker 1: start to sour on them, because I do actually think

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Speaker 1: they're a better team, and I would have their win

336
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Speaker 1: total a little bit ahead of the Ravens, all things equals.

337
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Speaker 1: But you know, obviously we don't know, uh, you know,

338
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Speaker 1: what's going on with Borrow exactly, all right, So we're

339
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Speaker 1: gonna get to the Browns. Obviously, we got to talk

340
00:18:05,560 --> 00:18:08,719
Speaker 1: about the Browns and Deshaun Watson. But the Steelers are

341
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Speaker 1: really interesting. They are plus three thirty to make the playoffs,

342
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Speaker 1: plus nine fifty to win the a f C North.

343
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Speaker 1: Their win total is seven and a half seven one

344
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Speaker 1: win the Super Bowl. That is their longest odds since

345
00:18:20,359 --> 00:18:24,480
Speaker 1: the nineteen seventy six merger, and they are at their

346
00:18:24,520 --> 00:18:28,920
Speaker 1: lowest win total since two thousand four, when they went

347
00:18:28,960 --> 00:18:35,960
Speaker 1: fifteen and one behind a rookie quarterback, since under Bill

348
00:18:36,000 --> 00:18:40,439
Speaker 1: to under Mike Tomlin and Bill Kower, since n when

349
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Speaker 1: their win total is listed under eight two. They were

350
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Speaker 1: at six and a half. They went eleven and five

351
00:18:48,680 --> 00:18:50,840
Speaker 1: two thousand, they were at six and a half, went

352
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Speaker 1: nine and seven two thousand one, they were at seven

353
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Speaker 1: and a half, went thirteen and three two thousand four,

354
00:18:56,840 --> 00:19:02,040
Speaker 1: seven and a half, one, fifteen and one. Guys, who's

355
00:19:02,040 --> 00:19:05,320
Speaker 1: gonna bet against the rob Rob Mike Tomlin spot. I

356
00:19:05,400 --> 00:19:07,840
Speaker 1: realized if you can have special outcomes that you gotta

357
00:19:07,880 --> 00:19:11,560
Speaker 1: be comfortable being uncomfortable. I'm just training myself over the

358
00:19:11,680 --> 00:19:16,240
Speaker 1: years to resist comfort and so appreciate my resume the

359
00:19:16,320 --> 00:19:19,800
Speaker 1: seeking comfort. Yeah, I can't do it. I definitely. This

360
00:19:19,840 --> 00:19:22,119
Speaker 1: is one of the pro bets, Like only pros are

361
00:19:22,119 --> 00:19:23,800
Speaker 1: betting this number. I've bett in the over for this

362
00:19:23,840 --> 00:19:27,520
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh team, and it's crazy looking at those numbers, just

363
00:19:27,520 --> 00:19:30,160
Speaker 1: in the fact that it's been eighteen years since they've

364
00:19:30,200 --> 00:19:32,399
Speaker 1: been at seven a half win tolls for a season

365
00:19:32,720 --> 00:19:36,520
Speaker 1: eighteen years like that, Tomlin, big bend Run. I mean,

366
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Speaker 1: that's that's that really is historical. And I know I

367
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Speaker 1: had a couple of guys reached out to me about

368
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Speaker 1: this coming to the season because I bet on Pittsburgh.

369
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Speaker 1: If you remember in February, I thought they were one

370
00:19:47,560 --> 00:19:49,320
Speaker 1: of the teams are gonna be the running for Russell

371
00:19:49,359 --> 00:19:53,399
Speaker 1: Wilson or DeShawn Watson. Look did not look out right.

372
00:19:53,400 --> 00:19:56,560
Speaker 1: They got Mitched Robiski instead. So I don't I don't

373
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Speaker 1: believe in Kenny Um again coming out of college at

374
00:20:00,160 --> 00:20:03,399
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh's a fifth year senior. He apparently is just getting

375
00:20:03,440 --> 00:20:07,320
Speaker 1: destroyed in camp. That's expected Pittsburgh. If you most people

376
00:20:07,359 --> 00:20:09,360
Speaker 1: that build on models, Pittsburgh's gonna be a top five

377
00:20:09,400 --> 00:20:12,680
Speaker 1: I'm almost everyone that looks at data for defenses. It's

378
00:20:12,720 --> 00:20:15,480
Speaker 1: just one of the best defenses of football. So if

379
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Speaker 1: Mitch Robinsky can be what he keeps talking about being

380
00:20:18,960 --> 00:20:20,960
Speaker 1: that he went to Buffalo and he really found himself

381
00:20:21,000 --> 00:20:23,439
Speaker 1: and he has the head for it, yeah, you have

382
00:20:23,480 --> 00:20:26,199
Speaker 1: a great bet in Pittsburgh. Like, this team is incredibly

383
00:20:26,240 --> 00:20:29,200
Speaker 1: talented on all offense. Again, they have weapons across the board,

384
00:20:29,560 --> 00:20:31,080
Speaker 1: and they have one of the best defenses. They just

385
00:20:31,080 --> 00:20:34,880
Speaker 1: don't have a quarterback, and Big Ben Corpse got over

386
00:20:34,920 --> 00:20:37,600
Speaker 1: to got over three thousand yards passed and got into

387
00:20:37,600 --> 00:20:41,520
Speaker 1: the playoffs. So I just it's hard for me to

388
00:20:41,520 --> 00:20:43,800
Speaker 1: tell people that listen to our show to bet Pittsburgh,

389
00:20:44,000 --> 00:20:46,160
Speaker 1: but pros are doing it, like I've bet Pittsburgh. It's

390
00:20:46,200 --> 00:20:49,240
Speaker 1: just it's a value based job. You're betting on the value.

391
00:20:49,440 --> 00:20:51,879
Speaker 1: And to me, again, we're gonna talk about the Browns.

392
00:20:51,920 --> 00:20:53,880
Speaker 1: I have the Browns the last place team in this division.

393
00:20:53,960 --> 00:20:56,280
Speaker 1: So if I think Pittsburgh has a chance to get

394
00:20:56,280 --> 00:20:59,320
Speaker 1: a wild card spot at seven one, I gotta bet

395
00:20:59,359 --> 00:21:02,360
Speaker 1: that number. Um, it's not doesn't feel good. Doesn't feel

396
00:21:02,400 --> 00:21:06,760
Speaker 1: good bit on Mits Rubisky or Rudolph, but it's one

397
00:21:06,760 --> 00:21:07,879
Speaker 1: of those things where I have to kind of bet

398
00:21:07,920 --> 00:21:09,679
Speaker 1: the numbers and look at a great defense that's just

399
00:21:09,720 --> 00:21:13,240
Speaker 1: missing a quarterback. I love how you just gave Big

400
00:21:13,240 --> 00:21:15,680
Speaker 1: Band credit for going over three thousand yards like it's

401
00:21:15,720 --> 00:21:19,479
Speaker 1: sucking in. I was shocked. You're not shocked by that.

402
00:21:19,520 --> 00:21:21,440
Speaker 1: I was shocked. You through for three thousand yards. I

403
00:21:21,480 --> 00:21:24,800
Speaker 1: remember that guy like one for ten for fifteen yards.

404
00:21:24,880 --> 00:21:27,880
Speaker 1: It was running back. Yeah, I mean he was bad.

405
00:21:27,920 --> 00:21:29,720
Speaker 1: He was at six point two yards per per a

406
00:21:29,800 --> 00:21:31,600
Speaker 1: tempt last year. It was just they threw at the

407
00:21:31,600 --> 00:21:35,679
Speaker 1: fourth highest rate in the league. It's actually pretty nuts. Yeah, Michell,

408
00:21:36,160 --> 00:21:41,920
Speaker 1: it's Mitchell Trubisky, Simon, and don't don't disrespect, don't disrespect

409
00:21:41,960 --> 00:21:45,680
Speaker 1: his name. This is when he proves he was worthy

410
00:21:45,720 --> 00:21:49,800
Speaker 1: of that top three overall pick, and when he proves

411
00:21:50,119 --> 00:21:53,399
Speaker 1: that Matt Nagy was the problem in Chicago, not missed

412
00:21:53,400 --> 00:21:58,080
Speaker 1: true Bisky, Raybon. Is there anything about the Steelers that

413
00:21:58,200 --> 00:22:01,240
Speaker 1: Simon just said that you agree with? Yeah, I pretty

414
00:22:01,280 --> 00:22:03,520
Speaker 1: much agree with everything. I mean, I think the Steelers

415
00:22:03,560 --> 00:22:07,240
Speaker 1: are the best bet in this division. Fun fact about

416
00:22:07,320 --> 00:22:11,560
Speaker 1: Mitchell true Bisky. He hasn't had a losing record as

417
00:22:11,560 --> 00:22:17,639
Speaker 1: a starter since his rookie year ever with time town

418
00:22:17,720 --> 00:22:23,880
Speaker 1: Phil watch Robinson intercepted by sha Kill, intercepted again by

419
00:22:23,920 --> 00:22:30,480
Speaker 1: sha Kill, Criffin, it's intercepted Trapisky over the middle, sucking

420
00:22:31,119 --> 00:22:35,800
Speaker 1: Mitchell Christie gets called trying to pour something in there.

421
00:22:36,240 --> 00:22:39,840
Speaker 1: He's won games every year somehow. So this defense, he

422
00:22:39,920 --> 00:22:43,480
Speaker 1: had some defenses in Chicago, very talented defense and as

423
00:22:43,520 --> 00:22:47,880
Speaker 1: Simon mentioned, you know, skill positions talented as well. Deonte Chase,

424
00:22:47,960 --> 00:22:51,960
Speaker 1: claypoo Pickings, uh, Pat Fryer moves who I love the

425
00:22:52,119 --> 00:22:54,400
Speaker 1: offensive line. Could still be a little rough around the edges,

426
00:22:54,440 --> 00:22:56,440
Speaker 1: but it's it's getting better. I think the interior line

427
00:22:56,440 --> 00:22:59,360
Speaker 1: is gonna be better. Of course, they got nagy Um

428
00:22:59,640 --> 00:23:04,119
Speaker 1: and Mike Tomin has never had a losing record. I

429
00:23:04,200 --> 00:23:06,720
Speaker 1: love the false enthusiasm. I'm gonna say, we can make

430
00:23:06,760 --> 00:23:09,280
Speaker 1: one of you guys quit today. There's a lot to

431
00:23:09,359 --> 00:23:11,680
Speaker 1: like about Ben and betting on Pittsburgh, and I think

432
00:23:11,720 --> 00:23:15,199
Speaker 1: there if I'm taking any of the wind totals in

433
00:23:15,240 --> 00:23:18,280
Speaker 1: this division as of right now, uh, it is the

434
00:23:18,320 --> 00:23:20,600
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh Steelers for all those for all those reasons I

435
00:23:20,640 --> 00:23:22,840
Speaker 1: just mentioned, And like Mitch True, Biscuit is just kind

436
00:23:22,840 --> 00:23:26,080
Speaker 1: of a wild card in the sense that, like he's

437
00:23:26,160 --> 00:23:29,000
Speaker 1: been on these kind of teams before where the defense

438
00:23:29,119 --> 00:23:31,479
Speaker 1: is the strength. Maybe he's got, you know, some some

439
00:23:31,520 --> 00:23:34,440
Speaker 1: decent guys at the skill positions and he's been able

440
00:23:34,480 --> 00:23:37,239
Speaker 1: to win. So it hasn't been pretty, but he's been

441
00:23:37,240 --> 00:23:38,840
Speaker 1: able to get it done so and that's all you

442
00:23:38,880 --> 00:23:41,359
Speaker 1: would need to to hit the wind total. So I

443
00:23:41,359 --> 00:23:44,320
Speaker 1: actually like the two. I love that you've made a

444
00:23:44,359 --> 00:23:48,400
Speaker 1: bold statement. You guys have both basically said Steelers Steelers

445
00:23:48,560 --> 00:23:53,280
Speaker 1: or Steelers Steelers Steelers over seven and a half. Take

446
00:23:53,359 --> 00:23:55,560
Speaker 1: him at seven or to one, run with it at

447
00:23:55,560 --> 00:23:59,320
Speaker 1: plus nine fifty. Why the hell not, because it's Mitchell

448
00:23:59,359 --> 00:24:02,960
Speaker 1: true bisky ease year. And we just we've just seen

449
00:24:03,000 --> 00:24:06,000
Speaker 1: this division, right Like, this division it gets it gets

450
00:24:06,040 --> 00:24:08,320
Speaker 1: ugly in December. We've seen it plenty of times where

451
00:24:08,359 --> 00:24:10,440
Speaker 1: these teams all of a sudden you look up and

452
00:24:10,520 --> 00:24:15,040
Speaker 1: the Ravens, Cincinnati, the Browns, Pittsburgh are all playing for

453
00:24:15,119 --> 00:24:17,920
Speaker 1: first place. That's what happened last year. And the Bengals

454
00:24:18,000 --> 00:24:20,399
Speaker 1: just they grinded out in the year. So that's why,

455
00:24:20,520 --> 00:24:22,520
Speaker 1: like we just talked about, Chris, that's good value nine

456
00:24:22,720 --> 00:24:25,679
Speaker 1: one taking a Pittsburgh team so in that playoffs that

457
00:24:25,960 --> 00:24:28,120
Speaker 1: it was a plus three thirty to make the playoffs.

458
00:24:28,119 --> 00:24:29,800
Speaker 1: I mean that I would put a liddle on that

459
00:24:29,880 --> 00:24:31,359
Speaker 1: as well, even like you know, to kind of get

460
00:24:31,400 --> 00:24:34,480
Speaker 1: some upside with the wind total, because um, like you said,

461
00:24:34,680 --> 00:24:37,160
Speaker 1: these teams could just knock each other off, and um,

462
00:24:37,200 --> 00:24:39,239
Speaker 1: you know, I could easily see the Steelers sneaking in

463
00:24:39,600 --> 00:24:42,400
Speaker 1: just winning every game like sixteen and thirteen. I mean,

464
00:24:42,440 --> 00:24:44,280
Speaker 1: this is making me want to bet the Steelers over

465
00:24:44,320 --> 00:24:45,719
Speaker 1: seven and a half right now. And by the way,

466
00:24:45,760 --> 00:24:48,640
Speaker 1: it's minus one oh five, so uh, not a bad

467
00:24:48,720 --> 00:24:53,760
Speaker 1: price either. Alright, So Cleveland Browns nine and a half

468
00:24:53,840 --> 00:24:57,639
Speaker 1: wins plus one plus two thirty to win the a

469
00:24:57,800 --> 00:25:02,320
Speaker 1: f C North. Look, Deshaun Watson clouds everything here six

470
00:25:02,359 --> 00:25:06,760
Speaker 1: games so far. Who knows what will ultimately happened. What

471
00:25:06,800 --> 00:25:08,800
Speaker 1: do we do here? Just ignore the Browns until we

472
00:25:08,840 --> 00:25:12,080
Speaker 1: get a better sense of what the final final suspension is.

473
00:25:12,640 --> 00:25:14,320
Speaker 1: I mean, it depends what you're playing with. Like I

474
00:25:14,359 --> 00:25:16,560
Speaker 1: just talked about, I think Pittsburgh's better than the Browns

475
00:25:16,560 --> 00:25:19,560
Speaker 1: this year just because of that with Watson, Like I

476
00:25:19,600 --> 00:25:21,760
Speaker 1: get the six games he's missing. People have talked about

477
00:25:21,760 --> 00:25:24,280
Speaker 1: it's it's it's like the perfect six games to mess

478
00:25:24,400 --> 00:25:27,640
Speaker 1: like they really think the NFL cares that much about him.

479
00:25:27,680 --> 00:25:29,520
Speaker 1: They set the Browns up to give them a better

480
00:25:29,520 --> 00:25:32,480
Speaker 1: schedule for this. They don't care. They don't think that way.

481
00:25:32,880 --> 00:25:35,200
Speaker 1: The money just keeps pouring in, Like if Watson plays,

482
00:25:35,240 --> 00:25:38,840
Speaker 1: if he doesn't play, they don't care. So I hated

483
00:25:38,840 --> 00:25:40,640
Speaker 1: all of the Browns, like I hate the I hate

484
00:25:40,680 --> 00:25:42,520
Speaker 1: the mojo going into it. I don't like the vibes

485
00:25:42,560 --> 00:25:44,240
Speaker 1: of it. I don't want to bet on them because

486
00:25:44,280 --> 00:25:46,920
Speaker 1: it's just it's not good. Like you have a guy

487
00:25:47,000 --> 00:25:50,520
Speaker 1: missing six games and coming in. Um, to me, that's

488
00:25:50,520 --> 00:25:53,840
Speaker 1: too much going on. Next year, Yeah, I'm gonna probably

489
00:25:53,840 --> 00:25:56,680
Speaker 1: be in on this Cleveland team because I've seen Stefanski's

490
00:25:56,720 --> 00:25:59,360
Speaker 1: offense work with Baker Mayfield, who I've been saying for years,

491
00:25:59,400 --> 00:26:01,720
Speaker 1: I don't think he's that got to a quarterback. Watson

492
00:26:01,840 --> 00:26:04,040
Speaker 1: is really good, Like we get shooted on this guy's

493
00:26:04,080 --> 00:26:07,879
Speaker 1: first personal life. The talent is really really really good,

494
00:26:08,000 --> 00:26:12,360
Speaker 1: like his pocket awareness, his football i Q, his arm strength,

495
00:26:12,760 --> 00:26:15,800
Speaker 1: all of it, like Watson is incredible. So to me,

496
00:26:16,080 --> 00:26:17,760
Speaker 1: this is a bad year. This is a wash year.

497
00:26:17,920 --> 00:26:19,520
Speaker 1: You want to fade the Browns this year. Get a

498
00:26:19,560 --> 00:26:21,720
Speaker 1: good number nine and a half. I just can't see

499
00:26:21,720 --> 00:26:23,960
Speaker 1: them reaching that number with a backup for six games

500
00:26:24,200 --> 00:26:26,040
Speaker 1: and then they have to play their division five more

501
00:26:26,080 --> 00:26:29,479
Speaker 1: times once Watson gets back. So that's too much. That's

502
00:26:29,520 --> 00:26:32,040
Speaker 1: too much for the Browns. I'll be fading them. I'm

503
00:26:32,080 --> 00:26:34,840
Speaker 1: shocked pros. I know pros who are betting this number

504
00:26:35,040 --> 00:26:37,800
Speaker 1: because they're just so in on Watson. I'm a year away,

505
00:26:37,840 --> 00:26:39,320
Speaker 1: like I'll be on them next year, but this year

506
00:26:39,320 --> 00:26:44,360
Speaker 1: I'll be fading Browns. I like the Browns as much

507
00:26:44,359 --> 00:26:46,359
Speaker 1: as the Steelers in the sense of the value. But

508
00:26:47,080 --> 00:26:49,680
Speaker 1: I actually think they can get by. With Jacobe Buru said,

509
00:26:49,840 --> 00:26:54,240
Speaker 1: they like the offensive line is great. Um, the defense,

510
00:26:54,280 --> 00:26:57,480
Speaker 1: you know, they got Myles Garrett, they got enough pass

511
00:26:57,520 --> 00:26:59,680
Speaker 1: for us. I think, you know, the secondary, they got

512
00:26:59,680 --> 00:27:04,359
Speaker 1: Denz Award, they got Newsome, Um, you know, like John

513
00:27:04,440 --> 00:27:08,320
Speaker 1: Johnson like they their roster is pretty strong, you know,

514
00:27:08,480 --> 00:27:12,280
Speaker 1: for for them to kind of whether the storm with

515
00:27:12,400 --> 00:27:16,280
Speaker 1: Jacobe Ris said, I think Kevin Stefanski, Uh, you knows

516
00:27:16,320 --> 00:27:18,199
Speaker 1: how to kind of win those kind of games. You

517
00:27:18,280 --> 00:27:20,440
Speaker 1: have Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt in a great offensive

518
00:27:20,480 --> 00:27:23,240
Speaker 1: line and again and you're going against the like you

519
00:27:23,320 --> 00:27:25,920
Speaker 1: mentioned Simon a pretty easy schedule in those games. So

520
00:27:26,560 --> 00:27:29,000
Speaker 1: I actually think the Browns have some upside. Now maybe

521
00:27:29,280 --> 00:27:31,920
Speaker 1: it's one of those situations where there might be more

522
00:27:32,000 --> 00:27:34,240
Speaker 1: value just betting them week to week. Like I actually

523
00:27:34,359 --> 00:27:37,400
Speaker 1: might be betting on them like just week to week

524
00:27:37,480 --> 00:27:40,480
Speaker 1: with Brissette in there, because I think people undervalue them

525
00:27:40,520 --> 00:27:43,600
Speaker 1: and not give them a shot. But um, I think

526
00:27:43,640 --> 00:27:46,080
Speaker 1: the Browns are are being a little bit slept on.

527
00:27:46,200 --> 00:27:49,240
Speaker 1: Like I think that the land mines, in my opinion,

528
00:27:49,240 --> 00:27:52,560
Speaker 1: in this division are the Ravens and the Bengals. Um,

529
00:27:52,640 --> 00:27:54,760
Speaker 1: you know, I think this division is a lot closer

530
00:27:54,800 --> 00:27:58,240
Speaker 1: than people think, especially because you know you have the

531
00:27:58,280 --> 00:28:00,320
Speaker 1: Browns you could play ugly and win, and you have

532
00:28:00,359 --> 00:28:02,920
Speaker 1: the Steelers who can play ugly and win. So, UM,

533
00:28:03,800 --> 00:28:06,199
Speaker 1: I like the Steelers more than the Browns, but I

534
00:28:06,280 --> 00:28:09,639
Speaker 1: like the Browns value wise more than the Ravens or

535
00:28:09,960 --> 00:28:14,520
Speaker 1: the Bengals. It may be training camp, but after listening

536
00:28:14,520 --> 00:28:18,720
Speaker 1: to YouTube, I feel like I am in mid season.

537
00:28:19,080 --> 00:28:22,520
Speaker 1: Waffling changed my mind form because as much as I

538
00:28:22,560 --> 00:28:24,560
Speaker 1: was all in on the Ravens when we started this

539
00:28:24,600 --> 00:28:27,800
Speaker 1: part of the podcast, I love the Steelers right now

540
00:28:27,880 --> 00:28:31,320
Speaker 1: so much that forget about the Ravens, forget about the Bengals.

541
00:28:31,640 --> 00:28:35,479
Speaker 1: Raybon I percent agree that those are the two teams

542
00:28:35,480 --> 00:28:39,720
Speaker 1: that maybe there's more questions about reaching the potential that

543
00:28:39,760 --> 00:28:44,280
Speaker 1: the odds makers have set versus the Steelers over reaching

544
00:28:44,800 --> 00:28:56,360
Speaker 1: the odds makers numbers. Give me the Steelers, let's rollers

545
00:28:57,120 --> 00:29:07,240
Speaker 1: here go and could convince me mid season convinced me form,

546
00:29:07,320 --> 00:29:11,440
Speaker 1: I mean mid season convinced me form Right now football

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554
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555
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Speaker 1: in West Virginia. All right, let's get to the best

578
00:30:52,800 --> 00:30:58,760
Speaker 1: division in football, and by best I mean craziest, most mercurial.

579
00:30:59,480 --> 00:31:04,480
Speaker 1: You can't talk about an NFC North without talking about

580
00:31:04,520 --> 00:31:09,120
Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers, without talking about his drama in the off season,

581
00:31:09,240 --> 00:31:12,560
Speaker 1: without talking about whatever his relationship is with Davante Adams.

582
00:31:12,680 --> 00:31:16,400
Speaker 1: How that might have contributed to Davante Adams leaving about

583
00:31:16,480 --> 00:31:20,560
Speaker 1: him coming to training camp dressed like Nick Cage from Conair.

584
00:31:22,440 --> 00:31:25,240
Speaker 1: There's only two men I trust. One of those main

585
00:31:26,120 --> 00:31:30,640
Speaker 1: It's not you. Whatever tattoos he's gotten, nobody even knows

586
00:31:30,680 --> 00:31:34,520
Speaker 1: who the guy is throwing too. But look, there's still

587
00:31:34,560 --> 00:31:37,840
Speaker 1: minus one seventy win the NFC North. Their win total

588
00:31:38,040 --> 00:31:41,440
Speaker 1: is still ten and a half at home. The past

589
00:31:41,480 --> 00:31:46,520
Speaker 1: three seasons, Aaron Rodgers is nineteen and nine against the spread,

590
00:31:46,560 --> 00:31:51,360
Speaker 1: which makes him the most profitable quarterback in the NFL.

591
00:31:51,840 --> 00:31:54,960
Speaker 1: And they've gone over the wind total for three straight years.

592
00:31:55,880 --> 00:32:01,920
Speaker 1: So given all that, Simon, we hate Aaron Rodgers and

593
00:32:02,240 --> 00:32:05,920
Speaker 1: we love to fade the Packers. No Chad hates Aaron Rodgers.

594
00:32:05,960 --> 00:32:08,760
Speaker 1: I love Aaron Rodgers because me and Aaron evergant relationship.

595
00:32:08,800 --> 00:32:10,920
Speaker 1: I bet them all during the regular season, and I

596
00:32:11,040 --> 00:32:14,360
Speaker 1: fade him big on an underdog during the playoffs and

597
00:32:14,360 --> 00:32:17,160
Speaker 1: I always win. So it's boring. I mean, I'll keep

598
00:32:17,200 --> 00:32:21,640
Speaker 1: this quick. It's like, yes, Green Bay mathematically, everyone's gonna

599
00:32:21,640 --> 00:32:23,440
Speaker 1: be on them, like they're they're the best team in

600
00:32:23,480 --> 00:32:25,640
Speaker 1: this division. They have the best quarterback in this division.

601
00:32:26,200 --> 00:32:28,280
Speaker 1: They're gonna change styles this season where they're gonna be

602
00:32:28,280 --> 00:32:30,200
Speaker 1: more defensive, weren't ended where they're just gonna run the

603
00:32:30,200 --> 00:32:33,360
Speaker 1: ball more. So it's again, we're gonna get the team

604
00:32:33,400 --> 00:32:35,600
Speaker 1: I love coming up. But yeah, if you like a

605
00:32:35,680 --> 00:32:38,280
Speaker 1: boring life and you want to take chalk. I can't

606
00:32:38,320 --> 00:32:41,320
Speaker 1: talk ship to you for taking green Bay, but I

607
00:32:41,400 --> 00:32:43,960
Speaker 1: just wouldn't do it, Like it's just it's no fun

608
00:32:44,080 --> 00:32:46,400
Speaker 1: taking a number like this. But if we're sitting here

609
00:32:46,440 --> 00:32:49,240
Speaker 1: in December, who who do we all think is gonna

610
00:32:49,240 --> 00:32:50,880
Speaker 1: win this division? Is gonna be green Bay. They're just

611
00:32:51,000 --> 00:32:53,720
Speaker 1: the most complete team back to back m v P

612
00:32:53,800 --> 00:32:56,160
Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers for a reason, like we have no reason

613
00:32:56,200 --> 00:33:00,480
Speaker 1: to believe he's declining, So it's to me it's boring.

614
00:33:00,560 --> 00:33:02,840
Speaker 1: But yeah, green Bay is a good bet in this division,

615
00:33:02,840 --> 00:33:05,360
Speaker 1: but I just wouldn't do it. Raybon, you bet you

616
00:33:05,360 --> 00:33:08,000
Speaker 1: you had a time, you had a phase before the

617
00:33:08,040 --> 00:33:11,400
Speaker 1: back to back m vps were you were believing that

618
00:33:11,440 --> 00:33:14,800
Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers was on a downward trajectory. What do you

619
00:33:14,800 --> 00:33:22,040
Speaker 1: think changed, Mike McCarthy, Amen, I mean, really it did.

620
00:33:22,120 --> 00:33:26,080
Speaker 1: But I actually don't think green Bay is a good bet.

621
00:33:26,120 --> 00:33:27,360
Speaker 1: Like I don't think there are a lot to win

622
00:33:27,400 --> 00:33:31,040
Speaker 1: this division. I think another team um has a shot

623
00:33:31,280 --> 00:33:33,000
Speaker 1: who I like who will talk about in a second,

624
00:33:33,000 --> 00:33:35,719
Speaker 1: But I do like green Bay's defense a lot. And

625
00:33:35,720 --> 00:33:38,160
Speaker 1: and Simon you said it like they're they're going to

626
00:33:38,240 --> 00:33:42,200
Speaker 1: have to shift to a more run heavy um defensive approach,

627
00:33:42,400 --> 00:33:45,200
Speaker 1: and I think they can do it because their defense.

628
00:33:45,520 --> 00:33:48,160
Speaker 1: I mean even in the draft, you know, everyone was

629
00:33:48,160 --> 00:33:50,440
Speaker 1: looking for them to draft a wide receiver, and you

630
00:33:50,440 --> 00:33:53,440
Speaker 1: know they get more on the defense. They go, they

631
00:33:53,440 --> 00:33:56,920
Speaker 1: go on defense, and so I really like the defense,

632
00:33:57,000 --> 00:34:02,080
Speaker 1: but I am worried about the receiving corps. At some

633
00:34:02,120 --> 00:34:04,320
Speaker 1: point in this in today's NFL, you are gonna have

634
00:34:04,400 --> 00:34:06,280
Speaker 1: to throw, and I think it is gonna be a

635
00:34:06,360 --> 00:34:10,440
Speaker 1: route awakening for Rogers. You know, not having Davonte Adams

636
00:34:10,480 --> 00:34:13,319
Speaker 1: not only to throw like every you know, one third

637
00:34:13,360 --> 00:34:17,600
Speaker 1: of his passes too, but also just to get guys

638
00:34:17,680 --> 00:34:22,239
Speaker 1: like you know, Randall Cobbs single coverage or and now

639
00:34:22,280 --> 00:34:25,800
Speaker 1: you don't even have mvs who Rodgers was starting to

640
00:34:25,880 --> 00:34:29,799
Speaker 1: quick with down the field. So I really think it's

641
00:34:29,840 --> 00:34:31,839
Speaker 1: it's it's gonna be tough for them. I think they're

642
00:34:31,840 --> 00:34:34,720
Speaker 1: another team that's gonna kind of have to win ugly.

643
00:34:35,280 --> 00:34:37,320
Speaker 1: But they do have Aaron Jones and a J Dillon.

644
00:34:37,880 --> 00:34:39,879
Speaker 1: Um they are going through some injury. The old line

645
00:34:39,920 --> 00:34:42,200
Speaker 1: isn't as good I think as it as it has

646
00:34:42,200 --> 00:34:44,960
Speaker 1: been a years past. So um Green Bays in one

647
00:34:45,000 --> 00:34:47,000
Speaker 1: of those teams where I just feel like it's the

648
00:34:47,040 --> 00:34:50,160
Speaker 1: floor is a little bit lower, um than it's been

649
00:34:50,400 --> 00:34:53,279
Speaker 1: in these past few years, just because I think on

650
00:34:53,320 --> 00:34:55,240
Speaker 1: the offense, I think there are a lot more fragile

651
00:34:55,280 --> 00:34:58,600
Speaker 1: without Adams. You know, the receivers, whether it's Cod, whether

652
00:34:58,680 --> 00:35:02,320
Speaker 1: it's um Sammy watch can Christian Watson's already on the shelf.

653
00:35:02,400 --> 00:35:06,680
Speaker 1: Like they're they're not very durable. At least it's not

654
00:35:06,719 --> 00:35:09,840
Speaker 1: looking like they will be right now. And uh, Alan

655
00:35:09,920 --> 00:35:12,359
Speaker 1: Lazard as the number one, that's that's gonna be totally

656
00:35:12,400 --> 00:35:16,320
Speaker 1: different when Davante Adams isn't there to take coverage away. Um.

657
00:35:16,400 --> 00:35:19,600
Speaker 1: So I think this this is a team that you know,

658
00:35:20,080 --> 00:35:23,360
Speaker 1: they've been crushing their win totals every year they've been

659
00:35:23,400 --> 00:35:25,120
Speaker 1: you know, they've been great, and yet the books put

660
00:35:25,200 --> 00:35:27,000
Speaker 1: them at ten and a half, you know, instead of

661
00:35:27,040 --> 00:35:29,000
Speaker 1: like eleven and eleven and a half. So I think

662
00:35:29,040 --> 00:35:30,560
Speaker 1: that kind of tells you something. I think there's just

663
00:35:30,600 --> 00:35:32,960
Speaker 1: a lower floor this here with Green Bay. I think

664
00:35:32,960 --> 00:35:35,680
Speaker 1: if everyone stays healthy on offense and um, you know,

665
00:35:35,719 --> 00:35:39,000
Speaker 1: maybe Watson comes brown or um or or dudes breaks

666
00:35:39,000 --> 00:35:41,239
Speaker 1: out or something, um, they could they could kind of

667
00:35:41,600 --> 00:35:44,080
Speaker 1: keep it together and win you know, twelve thirteen games

668
00:35:44,120 --> 00:35:46,120
Speaker 1: but um, I also think, you know, if if the

669
00:35:46,160 --> 00:35:48,719
Speaker 1: wrong person goes down, even if Rogers misses a couple

670
00:35:48,719 --> 00:35:51,440
Speaker 1: of games, Uh, this team could easily be you know,

671
00:35:51,480 --> 00:35:54,560
Speaker 1: in that in that eight, nine and ten when Range like,

672
00:35:54,560 --> 00:35:58,200
Speaker 1: I just think that offense has has a low floor. Well, look,

673
00:35:58,680 --> 00:36:01,000
Speaker 1: you guys are both sort of shadowed a little bit

674
00:36:01,400 --> 00:36:04,760
Speaker 1: for this division in that there are other more interesting teams.

675
00:36:05,040 --> 00:36:07,160
Speaker 1: As much as I would like to say it's the

676
00:36:07,200 --> 00:36:10,319
Speaker 1: Bears who will get to you last, it's Minnesota and

677
00:36:10,360 --> 00:36:13,919
Speaker 1: it's Detroit. So let's start with Minnesota. Their plus three

678
00:36:13,960 --> 00:36:17,239
Speaker 1: hundred to win the North. They are at nine and

679
00:36:17,280 --> 00:36:21,160
Speaker 1: a half wins. That's plus one oh five, so pretty

680
00:36:21,200 --> 00:36:23,480
Speaker 1: good money. They're pretty good price than nine and a

681
00:36:23,520 --> 00:36:26,160
Speaker 1: half wins, right, But I'm going to start with you

682
00:36:26,200 --> 00:36:28,520
Speaker 1: because I think this is the team that you were foreshadowing.

683
00:36:29,000 --> 00:36:30,880
Speaker 1: Are you telling me that you like them to win North?

684
00:36:31,280 --> 00:36:33,280
Speaker 1: I like the Vikings at this price, you know, plus

685
00:36:33,280 --> 00:36:37,160
Speaker 1: three hundred. Listen. I like Detroit as well, and we'll

686
00:36:37,200 --> 00:36:39,759
Speaker 1: get to that. But I don't like Detroit necessarily to

687
00:36:39,840 --> 00:36:43,239
Speaker 1: win the division. I still think it's you know, kind

688
00:36:43,239 --> 00:36:45,440
Speaker 1: of the two at the top, and then there's a

689
00:36:45,480 --> 00:36:49,919
Speaker 1: big drop off between Minnesota and Detroit. But first of all,

690
00:36:50,400 --> 00:36:53,880
Speaker 1: you have finally, you get an offensive minded head coach.

691
00:36:54,040 --> 00:36:56,880
Speaker 1: You know in the building here, Kirk Cousins, you know,

692
00:36:56,960 --> 00:36:59,880
Speaker 1: whatever drama he had with Mike Zimmer. I mean, sixty

693
00:37:00,080 --> 00:37:02,880
Speaker 1: touchdowns in twenty picks since getting Justin Jefferson over the

694
00:37:02,920 --> 00:37:06,040
Speaker 1: last two years. I think the offense will be great. Um.

695
00:37:06,160 --> 00:37:08,919
Speaker 1: Kevin O'Connor is, he's been working under McVeigh. I think

696
00:37:08,960 --> 00:37:11,520
Speaker 1: he's I think he's gonna take that offense to the

697
00:37:11,560 --> 00:37:13,680
Speaker 1: next level. Um. And now you're just looking for the

698
00:37:13,760 --> 00:37:16,040
Speaker 1: defense to be solid, and I think it can be solid.

699
00:37:16,080 --> 00:37:18,759
Speaker 1: I mean you still have I think you still have

700
00:37:18,800 --> 00:37:21,799
Speaker 1: solid players at each level of that defense. For Minnesota,

701
00:37:22,000 --> 00:37:25,239
Speaker 1: it's not an amazing defense. And obviously, um, you know

702
00:37:25,400 --> 00:37:28,120
Speaker 1: you lose Mike Zimmer, but I still think they have

703
00:37:28,320 --> 00:37:31,440
Speaker 1: enough players, you know, up and down. You know the

704
00:37:31,480 --> 00:37:34,279
Speaker 1: defensive line, you got Phillips, you got Hunter, you got Tomlinson,

705
00:37:34,600 --> 00:37:37,200
Speaker 1: you know Kendricks at linebacker, you got Hicks. You know

706
00:37:37,520 --> 00:37:40,200
Speaker 1: Cam Dancer is actually turned into one of the better

707
00:37:40,239 --> 00:37:43,080
Speaker 1: corners in the league. And you got I love Cam

708
00:37:43,160 --> 00:37:46,440
Speaker 1: buying him the safety and uh, and you still got

709
00:37:46,440 --> 00:37:48,840
Speaker 1: Harrison Smith there so there's a lot of pieces on

710
00:37:48,920 --> 00:37:52,080
Speaker 1: that defense, um to where I think they could feel

711
00:37:52,480 --> 00:37:55,600
Speaker 1: a quality unit on defense. And then I think their

712
00:37:55,640 --> 00:37:59,440
Speaker 1: offense has a very good chance of being better than

713
00:37:59,480 --> 00:38:02,520
Speaker 1: the Packer is just because they're more complete. You have

714
00:38:03,160 --> 00:38:05,440
Speaker 1: Cousins is obviously not as good as Aaron Rodgers, but

715
00:38:05,680 --> 00:38:08,480
Speaker 1: you have justin Jefferson, you still have Adam Feeling. Um,

716
00:38:08,520 --> 00:38:11,239
Speaker 1: you're getting Irv Smith's back k j Osburn turned into

717
00:38:11,239 --> 00:38:13,840
Speaker 1: a pretty good number three, Davin Cook is in the backfield,

718
00:38:13,880 --> 00:38:16,440
Speaker 1: and you've got a good backup in Madison. Uh, you

719
00:38:16,440 --> 00:38:18,480
Speaker 1: know the left side of the line is the tackles

720
00:38:18,480 --> 00:38:21,480
Speaker 1: are pretty good now. Um, So I really like, I

721
00:38:21,520 --> 00:38:24,160
Speaker 1: really like this Minnesota team. I just think they're a

722
00:38:24,280 --> 00:38:28,040
Speaker 1: solid all around team, don't have a bunch of like

723
00:38:28,080 --> 00:38:31,960
Speaker 1: many gaping holes or weaknesses. And I think this is

724
00:38:31,960 --> 00:38:34,719
Speaker 1: a high upside team, you know, like they're probably like

725
00:38:34,800 --> 00:38:37,560
Speaker 1: a nine win team, nine and a half, it's probably

726
00:38:37,600 --> 00:38:39,840
Speaker 1: the right number. But this team I think has a

727
00:38:39,920 --> 00:38:42,960
Speaker 1: higher ceiling um, you know, and I don't think the floor.

728
00:38:43,040 --> 00:38:44,560
Speaker 1: I think the floor is high too. So I think

729
00:38:44,560 --> 00:38:46,600
Speaker 1: this team could it is much more likely to get

730
00:38:46,640 --> 00:38:49,600
Speaker 1: to like eleven, twelve, thirteen, wins. If you know they

731
00:38:49,640 --> 00:38:51,759
Speaker 1: get some luck, then they are the fault of like

732
00:38:52,160 --> 00:38:55,759
Speaker 1: seven six, seven eight wins. I just think this team, Um,

733
00:38:56,080 --> 00:38:58,200
Speaker 1: I think I think they're gonna be really good on offense,

734
00:38:58,239 --> 00:39:01,000
Speaker 1: and I think the defense uh is very Tell him, well, look,

735
00:39:01,000 --> 00:39:03,520
Speaker 1: they've always been a team that has suffered from bad luck, right,

736
00:39:03,600 --> 00:39:06,560
Speaker 1: and we saw this last year. Too many close games,

737
00:39:06,560 --> 00:39:09,440
Speaker 1: too many opportunities where a team like that should have

738
00:39:09,480 --> 00:39:12,080
Speaker 1: made it to the playoffs. They didn't because of quirks,

739
00:39:12,320 --> 00:39:17,320
Speaker 1: you know, missed kicks, long shot plays, etcetera, etcetera. UM,

740
00:39:17,360 --> 00:39:19,440
Speaker 1: I'm gonna give Matt Mitchell an opportunity to put in

741
00:39:19,440 --> 00:39:21,480
Speaker 1: a drop here. I think it's safe to say that

742
00:39:22,160 --> 00:39:25,680
Speaker 1: head coach new head coach Kevin O'Connell. He is the

743
00:39:26,680 --> 00:39:35,040
Speaker 1: new man on the Minnesota Vikings. Bout the way chat

744
00:39:35,080 --> 00:39:39,520
Speaker 1: I like. I like O'Connell twenty to one for Coach

745
00:39:39,560 --> 00:39:44,160
Speaker 1: of the Year. He's behind a bunch of other coaches

746
00:39:44,280 --> 00:39:46,840
Speaker 1: like big so three of the last five coaches to

747
00:39:46,880 --> 00:39:49,839
Speaker 1: win Coach of the Year have been first year, first

748
00:39:49,920 --> 00:39:54,680
Speaker 1: year with the team. UM, and his odds are longer

749
00:39:54,719 --> 00:39:58,879
Speaker 1: than like Brian Dable and and Doug Peterson. Like those

750
00:39:58,880 --> 00:40:02,600
Speaker 1: teams aren't gonna win a games because the averages twelve

751
00:40:02,600 --> 00:40:04,919
Speaker 1: wins a year over that span, Like, they're not those

752
00:40:04,920 --> 00:40:07,080
Speaker 1: teams are gonna win enough games. And then you know

753
00:40:07,200 --> 00:40:10,080
Speaker 1: he's his eyes are longer than Stanley and McDaniels and

754
00:40:10,160 --> 00:40:14,040
Speaker 1: McDaniels and Hackett. Like, I just think he's the best value,

755
00:40:14,600 --> 00:40:16,640
Speaker 1: uh for coach of the year. So I like the

756
00:40:16,800 --> 00:40:19,440
Speaker 1: Vikings UH to win in Division. I think that's a

757
00:40:19,440 --> 00:40:21,839
Speaker 1: great bet. But I also think, um, if you are

758
00:40:21,920 --> 00:40:24,759
Speaker 1: bullish on the Vikings, you want to sprinkle in some

759
00:40:24,800 --> 00:40:27,960
Speaker 1: of that Kevin O'Connell Coach of the year. I mean again,

760
00:40:28,040 --> 00:40:30,759
Speaker 1: working under McVeigh, you know there's a lot of upside here.

761
00:40:31,040 --> 00:40:33,719
Speaker 1: I mean he has the pieces to really, um put

762
00:40:33,760 --> 00:40:37,279
Speaker 1: his offensive mind for use. You like that. I like

763
00:40:37,400 --> 00:40:40,520
Speaker 1: how I gave a nice little Lizzo Diddy and you

764
00:40:40,640 --> 00:40:44,719
Speaker 1: both didn't respond, but then you completely ignored it. And

765
00:40:44,719 --> 00:40:47,840
Speaker 1: when I talk about Kevin O'Connell UH coach of the years,

766
00:40:47,840 --> 00:40:50,960
Speaker 1: which I think is a really smart bet. Uh, Simon,

767
00:40:52,680 --> 00:40:54,839
Speaker 1: I don't believe you have anything different to say about

768
00:40:54,840 --> 00:40:59,400
Speaker 1: the Vikings than Raybon Uh. If you do, please speak it.

769
00:40:59,520 --> 00:41:02,040
Speaker 1: If not, we got to talk about the lines. Yeah,

770
00:41:02,040 --> 00:41:04,320
Speaker 1: I would say, you can just play that exact clip

771
00:41:04,360 --> 00:41:07,080
Speaker 1: of Chris talking about the Vikings for the last four years.

772
00:41:07,120 --> 00:41:10,680
Speaker 1: Just switch out stuff on Diggs's name for Jefferson's name,

773
00:41:10,680 --> 00:41:12,760
Speaker 1: and switch out the head coach being there with Zimmer

774
00:41:12,760 --> 00:41:15,600
Speaker 1: and this head coach. It's like what Chris said, they've

775
00:41:15,600 --> 00:41:19,440
Speaker 1: said every year with Kirk on that team, great offense,

776
00:41:19,719 --> 00:41:23,400
Speaker 1: semi good defense. I just don't don't do it like

777
00:41:23,680 --> 00:41:25,920
Speaker 1: robbing me and chat we fade the Vikings. It pays

778
00:41:25,920 --> 00:41:28,799
Speaker 1: as well. Don't don't put money on the Vikings. It's

779
00:41:28,880 --> 00:41:32,480
Speaker 1: Kirk Cousins. You're gonna hate yourself by November. So you

780
00:41:32,600 --> 00:41:35,080
Speaker 1: rather put like minus five hundred on the Packers then

781
00:41:35,239 --> 00:41:38,120
Speaker 1: plus three hundred Vikings. No, I already said I wouldn't

782
00:41:38,160 --> 00:41:39,719
Speaker 1: bet the Packers, but I think if I'm just looking

783
00:41:39,760 --> 00:41:41,960
Speaker 1: at this division, that's the best value just because they're

784
00:41:41,960 --> 00:41:44,279
Speaker 1: the best team. So that's what I'm saying. You said

785
00:41:44,320 --> 00:41:46,359
Speaker 1: you would rather if that's the best value, you would

786
00:41:46,440 --> 00:41:48,719
Speaker 1: rather do it, Like we're gonna talk about what I

787
00:41:48,840 --> 00:41:50,440
Speaker 1: bet on, but like you're just saying, like for the

788
00:41:50,480 --> 00:41:52,879
Speaker 1: simpleton out here that people the fans of the show,

789
00:41:52,920 --> 00:41:55,120
Speaker 1: it's just people get sucked in the Vikings because it's

790
00:41:55,160 --> 00:41:58,160
Speaker 1: flashy toy. But it's like it's Kirk Cousins. Like Kirk

791
00:41:58,160 --> 00:42:01,000
Speaker 1: Cousins Monday Night. What are we doing so, Raybon, I

792
00:42:01,080 --> 00:42:04,400
Speaker 1: think I think the point is that, like this time,

793
00:42:04,480 --> 00:42:07,400
Speaker 1: is not saying he'd rather bet on the Packers versus

794
00:42:07,400 --> 00:42:09,840
Speaker 1: the Vickings. He's probably saying, I'd rather bet on the

795
00:42:09,920 --> 00:42:15,919
Speaker 1: Lions versus the Vikings. Speak to that lines, Chad. We've

796
00:42:15,920 --> 00:42:18,080
Speaker 1: been talking about it for about four months now. We're

797
00:42:18,080 --> 00:42:20,600
Speaker 1: in Detroit at this point where Detroit Lions Podcast. It's

798
00:42:20,600 --> 00:42:26,239
Speaker 1: gonna be last year. It's again, it's the different last year.

799
00:42:26,280 --> 00:42:28,319
Speaker 1: I just knew that these bad teams are gonna be bad, right,

800
00:42:28,360 --> 00:42:32,319
Speaker 1: Like I rarely bet the under on these bottom teams,

801
00:42:32,360 --> 00:42:33,640
Speaker 1: Like I bet the under in Houston, I bet the

802
00:42:33,719 --> 00:42:35,720
Speaker 1: under on the Jaguars, I bet the under on Detroit.

803
00:42:36,160 --> 00:42:37,880
Speaker 1: That's not normal for me, Like normally I want to

804
00:42:37,920 --> 00:42:40,359
Speaker 1: bet these teams over because I always think they're gonna

805
00:42:40,400 --> 00:42:44,680
Speaker 1: turn a page. And this Detroit team just everything they've done,

806
00:42:44,680 --> 00:42:46,839
Speaker 1: from the way they've drafted, the way they've built their

807
00:42:46,880 --> 00:42:50,040
Speaker 1: coaching tree out. I love this team like I'm all

808
00:42:50,120 --> 00:42:52,799
Speaker 1: in on Swift and fantasy. Like there's just a lot

809
00:42:52,800 --> 00:42:54,480
Speaker 1: of things about this Lions team that I love, and

810
00:42:54,520 --> 00:42:56,600
Speaker 1: it all comes back to the offensive line and this

811
00:42:56,719 --> 00:43:00,880
Speaker 1: defensive line, Like they're really building out smart style and

812
00:43:01,719 --> 00:43:04,279
Speaker 1: we're looking at a division that to me, it's up

813
00:43:04,280 --> 00:43:06,360
Speaker 1: for grabs, Like I don't see that huge of a

814
00:43:06,360 --> 00:43:09,279
Speaker 1: difference between the lines and the vikings. Like you can

815
00:43:09,280 --> 00:43:11,520
Speaker 1: say how you want about Kirk Cousins, Jared Golf has

816
00:43:11,520 --> 00:43:13,000
Speaker 1: been to a super Bowl. Like, sure, we can say

817
00:43:13,040 --> 00:43:15,359
Speaker 1: that's just basically rams thing, but it's like I've seen

818
00:43:15,440 --> 00:43:17,560
Speaker 1: Jared Golf make the same throw as I've seen Kirk

819
00:43:17,560 --> 00:43:20,480
Speaker 1: Cousins make. And the fact of this team, it feels

820
00:43:20,520 --> 00:43:22,879
Speaker 1: like believes in him, Like they gave him another year

821
00:43:22,920 --> 00:43:25,319
Speaker 1: to be their starter. I love that, Like I love

822
00:43:25,400 --> 00:43:28,319
Speaker 1: the whole mojo of this Lions team. Getting a little

823
00:43:28,320 --> 00:43:30,120
Speaker 1: scary chat. We've seen how they've been bet up now

824
00:43:30,200 --> 00:43:32,120
Speaker 1: right Like we've all heard the numbers. I think they're

825
00:43:32,120 --> 00:43:34,360
Speaker 1: one of the the biggest bets right now at Caesar's

826
00:43:34,840 --> 00:43:36,920
Speaker 1: just because they have a sports book in Detroit. But

827
00:43:37,000 --> 00:43:39,120
Speaker 1: it's like when you see the numbers, the amount of

828
00:43:39,120 --> 00:43:41,560
Speaker 1: people on this over, it's a little scary, but nothing

829
00:43:41,680 --> 00:43:43,399
Speaker 1: changed we like them at twelve the one they win

830
00:43:43,440 --> 00:43:46,879
Speaker 1: this division. I think they're um. At one point there

831
00:43:46,880 --> 00:43:49,920
Speaker 1: were like five hundred, uh like five to one to

832
00:43:49,960 --> 00:43:51,560
Speaker 1: make the playoffs. Now they're down to four to one.

833
00:43:51,600 --> 00:43:54,440
Speaker 1: So we love Detroit. They've been bent down, but I

834
00:43:54,440 --> 00:43:56,120
Speaker 1: still think there's a good value on a team that

835
00:43:56,640 --> 00:43:58,799
Speaker 1: if they just can start out right like last year

836
00:43:58,800 --> 00:44:01,000
Speaker 1: we talked about, right, yeah, they don't win till Week thirteen.

837
00:44:01,600 --> 00:44:03,600
Speaker 1: They can't let that happen, right, They gotta win early

838
00:44:03,640 --> 00:44:05,120
Speaker 1: on here. So if this team get out a couple

839
00:44:05,160 --> 00:44:07,960
Speaker 1: of wins early on, I just love the moxi of

840
00:44:08,000 --> 00:44:10,520
Speaker 1: this team. I love the coaching stop just a shock

841
00:44:10,560 --> 00:44:12,840
Speaker 1: your world kind of teams. So to me, I'll be

842
00:44:12,840 --> 00:44:17,520
Speaker 1: on Detroit all season. Lions finish three thirteen in one,

843
00:44:17,600 --> 00:44:20,640
Speaker 1: but we're eleven and six against the spread, first team

844
00:44:20,719 --> 00:44:24,839
Speaker 1: in the Wild Cut Era since nineteen to cover its

845
00:44:24,880 --> 00:44:31,480
Speaker 1: games in a season with three wins or fewer. Raybon, Uh,

846
00:44:32,360 --> 00:44:35,319
Speaker 1: do you have a feeling about the Lions. I love

847
00:44:35,360 --> 00:44:37,920
Speaker 1: the Lions. I just don't think they win a division

848
00:44:37,960 --> 00:44:40,920
Speaker 1: like I like the Lions because I just think, uh,

849
00:44:40,960 --> 00:44:43,600
Speaker 1: they're they're underrated, like I think they are. They are

850
00:44:43,640 --> 00:44:47,520
Speaker 1: closer to a team and they're win totals at six

851
00:44:47,560 --> 00:44:49,239
Speaker 1: and a half. Like, I think it's a lot. It

852
00:44:49,239 --> 00:44:50,759
Speaker 1: would be a lot to ask for them to beat

853
00:44:50,760 --> 00:44:54,080
Speaker 1: out the Packers and the Vikings. But I do I

854
00:44:54,160 --> 00:44:56,879
Speaker 1: do share simon sentiment with Jared Goff. I think people

855
00:44:56,880 --> 00:44:59,120
Speaker 1: are underrated him. Like we just did the pod with

856
00:44:59,120 --> 00:45:02,279
Speaker 1: with JJ Zachery Eastern and like we essentially decided that

857
00:45:02,320 --> 00:45:04,600
Speaker 1: we're just gonna pass on every quarterback and just draft

858
00:45:04,640 --> 00:45:09,120
Speaker 1: Jared Goff for free um. But like, seriously, the offensive

859
00:45:09,160 --> 00:45:10,840
Speaker 1: line is the top three offensive line. They have no

860
00:45:10,920 --> 00:45:14,440
Speaker 1: weakness on the offensive line. Uh, their skill positions are great,

861
00:45:15,120 --> 00:45:18,000
Speaker 1: and they're gonna get Jamison Williams at some point. They

862
00:45:18,040 --> 00:45:20,080
Speaker 1: already have, you know they I'm on ros st Brown

863
00:45:20,880 --> 00:45:23,840
Speaker 1: broke out in a major way last year. DJ Chark's

864
00:45:23,880 --> 00:45:26,840
Speaker 1: a solid. You know number two will turn into the

865
00:45:26,920 --> 00:45:31,600
Speaker 1: number three when Williams comes back. And uh, DeAndre Swift

866
00:45:31,640 --> 00:45:34,960
Speaker 1: is great. The reason why I don't love like the

867
00:45:35,280 --> 00:45:39,279
Speaker 1: Okay make the playoffs when the division is I think,

868
00:45:39,320 --> 00:45:43,680
Speaker 1: you know, Hutchinson is nice, but I still think the

869
00:45:44,280 --> 00:45:47,080
Speaker 1: back end is gonna struggle for detruit. I think, you know,

870
00:45:47,200 --> 00:45:49,879
Speaker 1: if when they don't get home I still think they're

871
00:45:49,880 --> 00:45:51,480
Speaker 1: gonna get torched. I think there'll be in a lot

872
00:45:51,520 --> 00:45:53,279
Speaker 1: of shootouts though, and I think they'll actually be able

873
00:45:53,320 --> 00:45:56,239
Speaker 1: to win some because their offense is criminally underrated. So

874
00:45:56,400 --> 00:45:58,680
Speaker 1: I'm I'm with you, Simon, I am loving these guys

875
00:45:58,680 --> 00:46:01,719
Speaker 1: in fantasy. Uh, I just don't really think the office.

876
00:46:01,760 --> 00:46:04,560
Speaker 1: Like the the only whole quote unquote on the offense

877
00:46:05,000 --> 00:46:08,200
Speaker 1: is really Jared Goff. But like you said, Simon, we've

878
00:46:08,239 --> 00:46:13,240
Speaker 1: seen him with pieces around him, Uh do do decently.

879
00:46:13,680 --> 00:46:15,759
Speaker 1: You couldn't expect him to do well last year in

880
00:46:15,760 --> 00:46:18,480
Speaker 1: that situation. It's totally different out So like the coaching stuff.

881
00:46:18,520 --> 00:46:21,080
Speaker 1: So I like the lines over six and a half wins.

882
00:46:21,320 --> 00:46:23,680
Speaker 1: If you want to sprinkle something to make the playoffs. Sure,

883
00:46:23,760 --> 00:46:26,439
Speaker 1: I just don't see them as an upside team because

884
00:46:26,440 --> 00:46:29,359
Speaker 1: I just I still think their secondary um is gonna

885
00:46:29,400 --> 00:46:31,600
Speaker 1: be shaky and that's ultimately going to be her downfall.

886
00:46:32,239 --> 00:46:34,360
Speaker 1: People all the time that Jared Golf, go back and

887
00:46:34,360 --> 00:46:37,120
Speaker 1: watch the Mexico City game with him against the Chiefs again.

888
00:46:37,160 --> 00:46:39,319
Speaker 1: It's one of the greatest football games ever played. I

889
00:46:39,320 --> 00:46:42,120
Speaker 1: think they scored fifty four. The Chiefs scored like fifty one.

890
00:46:42,560 --> 00:46:45,160
Speaker 1: Golf has it in him. He just needs the pieces

891
00:46:45,160 --> 00:46:47,000
Speaker 1: around him, which again we just talked about it. He

892
00:46:47,040 --> 00:46:50,200
Speaker 1: has it around him. Uh. The only other team to

893
00:46:50,239 --> 00:46:55,040
Speaker 1: talk about UH are these Chicago Bears. And in a

894
00:46:55,200 --> 00:46:58,680
Speaker 1: pre season in which social media, which has been influential

895
00:46:58,680 --> 00:47:02,600
Speaker 1: for years, has never been bigger because of the advent

896
00:47:02,719 --> 00:47:05,960
Speaker 1: of things like TikTok, how Instagram has changed its feed

897
00:47:06,480 --> 00:47:12,000
Speaker 1: um highlights are available the second something happens around the league.

898
00:47:12,440 --> 00:47:18,200
Speaker 1: You get insight, you get details, you get alerts. The

899
00:47:18,280 --> 00:47:20,960
Speaker 1: only thing that has been a highlight for the Bears

900
00:47:21,200 --> 00:47:26,120
Speaker 1: this preseason they're doing orange helmets for one of their games. No,

901
00:47:26,200 --> 00:47:28,280
Speaker 1: you didn't see the only highlight this little kid dressed

902
00:47:28,360 --> 00:47:32,839
Speaker 1: up as justin fields like legit had his visor, had

903
00:47:32,880 --> 00:47:38,160
Speaker 1: the sweat bands at the whole Shima like everything even better.

904
00:47:38,520 --> 00:47:41,719
Speaker 1: My point is, My point is I don't think we

905
00:47:41,760 --> 00:47:44,759
Speaker 1: need to spend any time on the Chicago Bears. The

906
00:47:44,840 --> 00:47:49,560
Speaker 1: NFC nor six and a half wins. Uh. Plush is

907
00:47:49,600 --> 00:47:51,719
Speaker 1: the price on the over. I think we can all

908
00:47:51,760 --> 00:47:53,719
Speaker 1: agree this is a team that's got a it's got

909
00:47:53,719 --> 00:47:57,319
Speaker 1: a long way to go. Yep, I bet, I mean

910
00:47:57,320 --> 00:47:58,880
Speaker 1: I like I like a bet and adjusted alliance for

911
00:47:59,000 --> 00:48:00,919
Speaker 1: teams I think they're gonna sell. I bet they're under

912
00:48:00,920 --> 00:48:03,760
Speaker 1: a five. Bet another under a four and a half.

913
00:48:03,880 --> 00:48:07,840
Speaker 1: Bet them have worst record. It's it's nothing against Justin

914
00:48:07,880 --> 00:48:11,160
Speaker 1: Fields or this team. It's more about I think the

915
00:48:11,239 --> 00:48:14,400
Speaker 1: last regime screwed them over so bad that they just

916
00:48:14,480 --> 00:48:18,360
Speaker 1: need a full tear down rebuild and could be shocked.

917
00:48:18,400 --> 00:48:20,799
Speaker 1: You know, Justin Fields, We've seen moments of flash of

918
00:48:20,880 --> 00:48:24,200
Speaker 1: him being really really athletic and competitive. We're also see

919
00:48:24,239 --> 00:48:26,640
Speaker 1: him being really dumb. So I'm just looking at the

920
00:48:26,640 --> 00:48:30,040
Speaker 1: BEARSS team that the future is exciting, right if just

921
00:48:30,200 --> 00:48:32,399
Speaker 1: you gotts see flashes of Justin Fields said, you're back

922
00:48:32,440 --> 00:48:35,040
Speaker 1: in You're excited for the future. But this year is

923
00:48:35,080 --> 00:48:37,439
Speaker 1: going to be ugly and going to be painful. So

924
00:48:37,760 --> 00:48:39,800
Speaker 1: I I'm gonna do my best not to be really negative.

925
00:48:39,840 --> 00:48:42,600
Speaker 1: I know how many Bears fans we have, but man,

926
00:48:43,239 --> 00:48:45,520
Speaker 1: it's it's gonna be bad for these fans this year.

927
00:48:47,920 --> 00:48:51,879
Speaker 1: Uh that's my favorite under. It's your favorite Bears under

928
00:48:51,920 --> 00:48:54,960
Speaker 1: six and a half. I mean, what listen, Justin Fields,

929
00:48:55,840 --> 00:48:58,920
Speaker 1: he has upside, right, but he had the worst QBR

930
00:48:58,960 --> 00:49:01,200
Speaker 1: of any quarterback and it league last year. Now let's

931
00:49:01,200 --> 00:49:04,520
Speaker 1: say you say, okay, well, he can take a step forward. Well,

932
00:49:05,160 --> 00:49:07,839
Speaker 1: to take a step forward, you need pieces around him.

933
00:49:08,120 --> 00:49:10,360
Speaker 1: They have one of the worst offensive lines in the league.

934
00:49:10,600 --> 00:49:12,800
Speaker 1: They have one of the worst receiving cords in the league.

935
00:49:13,080 --> 00:49:15,640
Speaker 1: They're relying on a couple of rookies in the secondary.

936
00:49:15,680 --> 00:49:18,560
Speaker 1: The the veteran in their secondary has been declining for

937
00:49:18,600 --> 00:49:21,399
Speaker 1: the last four years straight. They lost one of their

938
00:49:21,400 --> 00:49:25,759
Speaker 1: best pass rushers. I mean, this team really doesn't have

939
00:49:26,680 --> 00:49:30,880
Speaker 1: like a strength, like it's like Robert Quinnon and Roquan

940
00:49:30,960 --> 00:49:33,480
Speaker 1: Smith because and even Smith didn't have a good year

941
00:49:33,600 --> 00:49:36,520
Speaker 1: last year. So it's like it's it's team. It's hard

942
00:49:36,520 --> 00:49:39,120
Speaker 1: to even find a strength on this team. We're saying

943
00:49:39,120 --> 00:49:41,480
Speaker 1: the Lions are a little bit underrated. I think the

944
00:49:41,560 --> 00:49:43,759
Speaker 1: Vikings are underrated. The Package are still gonna be good,

945
00:49:43,880 --> 00:49:45,840
Speaker 1: even if maybe they're not as dominant as they weren't

946
00:49:45,880 --> 00:49:48,080
Speaker 1: years past. Like the division is gonna be tough for them.

947
00:49:48,080 --> 00:49:51,680
Speaker 1: All of their their easiest games are are on the road,

948
00:49:51,960 --> 00:49:53,880
Speaker 1: like Atlanta is on the road, the Gens is on

949
00:49:53,920 --> 00:49:56,400
Speaker 1: the road, the Giants are on the road, like one

950
00:49:56,440 --> 00:49:58,839
Speaker 1: of the Detroit games on the road. Like it's it's

951
00:49:58,840 --> 00:50:01,480
Speaker 1: just gonna be really off for them to see I

952
00:50:01,640 --> 00:50:04,880
Speaker 1: just struggle to see how they get to seven wins.

953
00:50:05,000 --> 00:50:08,280
Speaker 1: And I like what you did the assignment with um,

954
00:50:08,320 --> 00:50:10,520
Speaker 1: you know, getting some more some better odds by betting

955
00:50:10,600 --> 00:50:13,280
Speaker 1: them to go even lower, because yeah, I could absolutely

956
00:50:13,280 --> 00:50:15,840
Speaker 1: see this team, you know, going like three and fourteen,

957
00:50:15,880 --> 00:50:18,640
Speaker 1: four and thirteen something like that. I think what we're

958
00:50:18,640 --> 00:50:20,960
Speaker 1: gonna do is we wrap up the podcast right now.

959
00:50:21,000 --> 00:50:24,040
Speaker 1: We said we were going to get betting takeaways from

960
00:50:24,040 --> 00:50:25,799
Speaker 1: each division, and I feel like we've done that. But

961
00:50:25,840 --> 00:50:28,719
Speaker 1: the best betting takeaway from the a f C North,

962
00:50:28,800 --> 00:50:32,040
Speaker 1: to me, it's probably the Steelers over seven and a

963
00:50:32,080 --> 00:50:36,040
Speaker 1: half winds um or the Steelers plus three hundred to

964
00:50:36,200 --> 00:50:40,160
Speaker 1: win the division. And since we couldn't find a consensus

965
00:50:40,760 --> 00:50:44,960
Speaker 1: on the Lions and the Vikings or the Packers, I

966
00:50:44,960 --> 00:50:48,399
Speaker 1: think the consensus is Bears under six and a half

967
00:50:48,400 --> 00:50:52,520
Speaker 1: wins in the NFC North. Yeah, that's why. That's that

968
00:50:52,680 --> 00:50:55,480
Speaker 1: in the lines like the go over there to my

969
00:50:55,480 --> 00:50:57,400
Speaker 1: two biggest bets right now for this division. Yeah, I

970
00:50:57,400 --> 00:50:58,840
Speaker 1: like there. I like the Lions over six and a

971
00:50:58,840 --> 00:51:00,480
Speaker 1: half wins as well. I just don't like like the

972
00:51:00,840 --> 00:51:02,759
Speaker 1: I don't think they have a great shot of hitting

973
00:51:02,840 --> 00:51:07,200
Speaker 1: up like the right right right, but like I, I

974
00:51:07,360 --> 00:51:10,359
Speaker 1: like the offensive side of all. Fuck it, we're going

975
00:51:10,360 --> 00:51:12,600
Speaker 1: Bears understix and a half win, so that's our best.

976
00:51:13,200 --> 00:51:16,600
Speaker 1: Um the NFC North. Thank you to Chris Raban, who

977
00:51:16,680 --> 00:51:19,120
Speaker 1: is the host of the Fantasy Flex podcast, as well

978
00:51:19,160 --> 00:51:21,600
Speaker 1: as so many other things that the Action Network. To

979
00:51:21,760 --> 00:51:25,320
Speaker 1: my bff, my companion, my compadre, Simon Hunter. For producer

980
00:51:25,360 --> 00:51:28,279
Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell. I am Chad Millman. Download the podcast from

981
00:51:28,320 --> 00:51:32,760
Speaker 1: Apple podcast Spotify, whenever you get your podcasts, rate reviews,

982
00:51:32,800 --> 00:51:35,680
Speaker 1: subscribe us five stars, feedback as the gifts, say whatever

983
00:51:35,760 --> 00:51:38,800
Speaker 1: you want until next time, dude,