1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:10,119 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the 2 00:00:10,119 --> 00:00:13,880 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 3 00:00:13,920 --> 00:00:17,119 Speaker 1: noon and five pm Eastern on Apple, Cocklay and Android 4 00:00:17,160 --> 00:00:20,520 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever 5 00:00:20,600 --> 00:00:24,120 Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:25,400 --> 00:00:27,240 Speaker 2: We're expecting the House is going to try to move 7 00:00:27,280 --> 00:00:30,400 Speaker 2: forward on its budget resolution. I say I guess because 8 00:00:30,480 --> 00:00:33,440 Speaker 2: even the House Speaker himself wasn't totally clear as to 9 00:00:33,479 --> 00:00:36,480 Speaker 2: whether or not tonight was going to be go time 10 00:00:36,560 --> 00:00:38,440 Speaker 2: keeping in mind, the vote was originally scheduled to take 11 00:00:38,479 --> 00:00:40,920 Speaker 2: place around six pm, but Mike Johnson, when speaking to 12 00:00:40,960 --> 00:00:44,839 Speaker 2: reporters at the Capitol earlier, seemed a little uh wishy 13 00:00:44,960 --> 00:00:47,320 Speaker 2: washy on this though he does stand by the one 14 00:00:47,360 --> 00:00:49,160 Speaker 2: built package. This is what he said. 15 00:00:50,040 --> 00:00:52,520 Speaker 3: We do not have time to waste. The American people 16 00:00:53,000 --> 00:00:55,800 Speaker 3: are expecting us to deliver on this and we will. 17 00:00:56,080 --> 00:00:58,080 Speaker 3: And House Republicans need da night so we can keep 18 00:00:58,080 --> 00:01:00,520 Speaker 3: this process moving forward. And I think they all understand 19 00:01:00,600 --> 00:01:03,000 Speaker 3: that we're working right now to get everybody on board. 20 00:01:03,120 --> 00:01:05,240 Speaker 3: I think everybody wants to be on this train and 21 00:01:05,280 --> 00:01:06,080 Speaker 3: not in front of it. 22 00:01:07,880 --> 00:01:11,119 Speaker 4: There may not be time to waste, but we have 23 00:01:11,280 --> 00:01:14,280 Speaker 4: no clarity on how much time I guess we have. 24 00:01:14,400 --> 00:01:14,880 Speaker 5: Here, Kaylee. 25 00:01:14,959 --> 00:01:17,720 Speaker 4: To your point, speaker was asked right after that moment, 26 00:01:17,760 --> 00:01:19,959 Speaker 4: are you committed to the vote being today? He said, 27 00:01:20,000 --> 00:01:22,839 Speaker 4: there may be a vote tonight, there may not be. 28 00:01:23,040 --> 00:01:25,560 Speaker 4: Stay tuned, so we've got another game day call here, 29 00:01:26,000 --> 00:01:28,920 Speaker 4: Mike Johnson. Yeah, Look, if you can only lose one here, 30 00:01:29,000 --> 00:01:32,200 Speaker 4: obviously this is a pretty difficult exercise. He had meetings 31 00:01:32,440 --> 00:01:34,960 Speaker 4: late last evening that resumed early this morning with some 32 00:01:34,959 --> 00:01:37,920 Speaker 4: of the holdouts. And we're joined right now by Jack Fitzpatrick, 33 00:01:38,120 --> 00:01:42,520 Speaker 4: specializes in appropriations for US here covering Congress at Bloomberg Government. Jack, 34 00:01:42,560 --> 00:01:44,200 Speaker 4: what do you think? I know you're here on a 35 00:01:44,200 --> 00:01:46,000 Speaker 4: lot of the same stuff we're describing. Will there be 36 00:01:46,040 --> 00:01:47,680 Speaker 4: a vote today? 37 00:01:47,680 --> 00:01:49,960 Speaker 6: It's not looking great for a vote today. They haven't 38 00:01:50,000 --> 00:01:52,680 Speaker 6: officially put it off. But when you hear the speaker 39 00:01:53,040 --> 00:01:56,680 Speaker 6: kind of hesitating on the vote plan, that tells you something. 40 00:01:57,200 --> 00:02:00,960 Speaker 6: And even this morning we heard from four people directly 41 00:02:01,240 --> 00:02:04,640 Speaker 6: who right now are no votes on the House Republican side, 42 00:02:04,680 --> 00:02:06,480 Speaker 6: and as you mentioned, you can only afford to lose 43 00:02:06,520 --> 00:02:09,440 Speaker 6: one assuming all the Democrats show up. Now, some of 44 00:02:09,520 --> 00:02:12,320 Speaker 6: those no votes are pretty dug in. I would say 45 00:02:12,360 --> 00:02:15,480 Speaker 6: Thomas Massey, who described himself as a hard no on 46 00:02:15,560 --> 00:02:18,400 Speaker 6: this budget resolution, I'm not sure if they can really 47 00:02:18,440 --> 00:02:22,320 Speaker 6: negotiate with him right now. There are others, though, Tim Burchett, 48 00:02:22,320 --> 00:02:25,720 Speaker 6: Republican from Tennessee, said, nobody's met with me. The Speaker 49 00:02:25,760 --> 00:02:29,040 Speaker 6: hasn't met with Burchett. Leadership haven't really tried to win 50 00:02:29,120 --> 00:02:32,079 Speaker 6: him over. He wants some at least verbal promises on 51 00:02:32,440 --> 00:02:35,480 Speaker 6: spending cuts and something very conservative in the ultimate bill. 52 00:02:35,680 --> 00:02:37,680 Speaker 6: So there are some people you can work on, but 53 00:02:37,800 --> 00:02:41,160 Speaker 6: right now they have more than one no vote and 54 00:02:41,240 --> 00:02:43,800 Speaker 6: so they've definitely got work to do to get to 55 00:02:43,919 --> 00:02:47,800 Speaker 6: actually holding this vote. Doing it today would seem pretty tough. 56 00:02:49,040 --> 00:02:52,280 Speaker 2: Well, in the first real test is coming pretty shortly, 57 00:02:52,360 --> 00:02:54,400 Speaker 2: right Jack. They have to vote on the rule on 58 00:02:54,520 --> 00:02:56,840 Speaker 2: this bill first, and that's schedule to happen at this hour. 59 00:02:58,040 --> 00:02:59,359 Speaker 5: Yeah, that could be a test. 60 00:03:00,000 --> 00:03:03,400 Speaker 6: So someone asked Warren Davidson, who is one of the no's, 61 00:03:03,560 --> 00:03:05,600 Speaker 6: right now, are you going to vote against the rule? 62 00:03:05,760 --> 00:03:07,640 Speaker 5: And he was kind of wishy washy on that. 63 00:03:08,040 --> 00:03:10,640 Speaker 6: The thing to know about the reconciliation process in all 64 00:03:10,680 --> 00:03:12,920 Speaker 6: of this is there are a ton of opportunities to 65 00:03:12,960 --> 00:03:15,799 Speaker 6: block it, so you don't need if you're a conservative 66 00:03:15,800 --> 00:03:18,320 Speaker 6: who wants a more aggressive path to spending cuts. 67 00:03:18,080 --> 00:03:19,680 Speaker 5: You don't need to oppose the rule. 68 00:03:19,880 --> 00:03:21,760 Speaker 6: And we haven't really heard a lot of people specifically 69 00:03:21,800 --> 00:03:23,600 Speaker 6: saying they're going to oppose the rule. You can vote 70 00:03:23,600 --> 00:03:25,519 Speaker 6: in favor of the rule and then take down the 71 00:03:25,520 --> 00:03:28,359 Speaker 6: budget resolution, or you can support the budget resolution and 72 00:03:28,360 --> 00:03:31,480 Speaker 6: then take down the ultimate bill, so it gets progressively harder. 73 00:03:31,840 --> 00:03:35,160 Speaker 6: I'm not sure that an acceptance of the rule would 74 00:03:35,160 --> 00:03:37,280 Speaker 6: necessarily even be a good sign. A lot of people 75 00:03:37,280 --> 00:03:39,240 Speaker 6: are focused on that second vote that's supposed to be 76 00:03:39,320 --> 00:03:40,960 Speaker 6: later today on the resolution itself. 77 00:03:41,600 --> 00:03:44,000 Speaker 4: Well, that's really interesting and a great point that you 78 00:03:44,040 --> 00:03:45,880 Speaker 4: make here, Jack, because the fact of the matter is 79 00:03:45,880 --> 00:03:49,200 Speaker 4: it doesn't say anything about cutting medicaid in this budget resolution. 80 00:03:49,280 --> 00:03:49,560 Speaker 5: Correct. 81 00:03:49,600 --> 00:03:51,080 Speaker 4: This is the assumption that if you're going to reach 82 00:03:51,080 --> 00:03:52,880 Speaker 4: a certain level of cuts, you're going to have to 83 00:03:52,960 --> 00:03:55,800 Speaker 4: raid the cookie jar at some point and get to entitlements, 84 00:03:55,800 --> 00:03:57,800 Speaker 4: and it looks like medicaid would be the answer there. 85 00:03:57,800 --> 00:04:01,080 Speaker 4: But a lawmaker can vote for this still not be 86 00:04:01,280 --> 00:04:03,880 Speaker 4: pinned down in a campaign ad saying that they voted 87 00:04:04,160 --> 00:04:05,200 Speaker 4: to slash medicaid. 88 00:04:06,120 --> 00:04:10,240 Speaker 6: Yes, what's in writing here is a direction among many directions, 89 00:04:10,360 --> 00:04:13,560 Speaker 6: but a direction to the Energy and Commerce Committee saying 90 00:04:13,600 --> 00:04:16,400 Speaker 6: you have to cut eight hundred eighty billion dollars or 91 00:04:16,520 --> 00:04:18,640 Speaker 6: raise revenue, which Republicans don't really want to do. 92 00:04:18,960 --> 00:04:21,360 Speaker 5: It's hard to see how they get to that without. 93 00:04:21,040 --> 00:04:26,520 Speaker 6: Probably cutting a combination of Medicaid and maybe of the 94 00:04:26,560 --> 00:04:30,440 Speaker 6: snap nutrition Aid. So there are some politically sensitive things there. 95 00:04:30,680 --> 00:04:33,520 Speaker 6: But because this is not the bill itself that would 96 00:04:33,560 --> 00:04:37,200 Speaker 6: do that, you've seen some openness from the moderates who 97 00:04:37,279 --> 00:04:40,560 Speaker 6: might be scared off. Nicole Maliatakis, who was a kind 98 00:04:40,560 --> 00:04:44,440 Speaker 6: of negative sounding when speaking to you yesterday, sounded a 99 00:04:44,440 --> 00:04:47,960 Speaker 6: bit more positive this morning. It's more the Conservatives who 100 00:04:48,000 --> 00:04:51,359 Speaker 6: are holding things up than the moderates, because the moderates know, 101 00:04:51,440 --> 00:04:54,720 Speaker 6: if I don't like the details of what happens on Medicaid, 102 00:04:54,920 --> 00:04:57,240 Speaker 6: you can stop the bill later in the process, even 103 00:04:57,240 --> 00:04:59,280 Speaker 6: if you let this resolution go forward. 104 00:05:00,800 --> 00:05:03,040 Speaker 2: Well, and of course there is still a lot of 105 00:05:03,080 --> 00:05:06,320 Speaker 2: time left for debate on this jack as the expiring 106 00:05:06,360 --> 00:05:08,440 Speaker 2: tax cuts do so at the end of the year, 107 00:05:08,480 --> 00:05:11,200 Speaker 2: so theoretically they could have until then to get their 108 00:05:11,240 --> 00:05:13,719 Speaker 2: act together on this. The timeline we're working with on 109 00:05:13,839 --> 00:05:17,320 Speaker 2: keeping the government funded, though, is much shorter. We're seventeen 110 00:05:17,400 --> 00:05:20,440 Speaker 2: days out from the deadline. Are you seeing any signs 111 00:05:20,720 --> 00:05:22,880 Speaker 2: of progress being made toward a deal to avert the 112 00:05:22,960 --> 00:05:23,680 Speaker 2: lights going off? 113 00:05:24,880 --> 00:05:28,320 Speaker 6: Very little progress on government funding. It's the March fourteenth 114 00:05:28,360 --> 00:05:33,000 Speaker 6: deadline to avoid a shutdown. The negotiators have told us 115 00:05:33,000 --> 00:05:35,440 Speaker 6: they're not that far off on the numbers, at least 116 00:05:35,480 --> 00:05:37,520 Speaker 6: the preliminary numbers of how much you're going to spend 117 00:05:37,720 --> 00:05:41,520 Speaker 6: on defense and non defense. But Democrats have said, why 118 00:05:41,560 --> 00:05:45,000 Speaker 6: would we support this agreement if we don't have assurances 119 00:05:45,240 --> 00:05:47,720 Speaker 6: that the money is going to be spent, Because simultaneously 120 00:05:47,760 --> 00:05:50,520 Speaker 6: you have these efforts by President Trump and Elon Musk 121 00:05:50,720 --> 00:05:55,440 Speaker 6: to pause funding, to cancel contracts. They want something, either 122 00:05:55,760 --> 00:05:58,719 Speaker 6: verbally or in writing. I'm not exactly sure what the 123 00:05:58,960 --> 00:06:01,839 Speaker 6: latest offer is from. So they need something to ensure 124 00:06:01,880 --> 00:06:04,359 Speaker 6: that the money will be spent, and that is a 125 00:06:04,440 --> 00:06:06,640 Speaker 6: hard thing to get across. There's not a lot of 126 00:06:06,640 --> 00:06:10,160 Speaker 6: progress on that discussion, and so there's a big, big 127 00:06:10,200 --> 00:06:14,200 Speaker 6: gap to bridge still as we get closer to March fourteenth. 128 00:06:14,320 --> 00:06:17,640 Speaker 2: Glaucus ticking. Jack Fitzpatrick of Bloomberg Government Live for us 129 00:06:17,680 --> 00:06:20,400 Speaker 2: from Capitol Hill. Thank you so much. And of course 130 00:06:20,440 --> 00:06:24,520 Speaker 2: shows us jack us here in Washington. I'll focus on 131 00:06:24,839 --> 00:06:27,520 Speaker 2: the way in which this policy is getting done, in 132 00:06:27,560 --> 00:06:29,760 Speaker 2: all of the politics behind it. There also is just 133 00:06:29,800 --> 00:06:32,280 Speaker 2: a question of the need for the policy to get 134 00:06:32,320 --> 00:06:33,680 Speaker 2: done in the first place, and what it means for 135 00:06:33,720 --> 00:06:36,520 Speaker 2: financial markets and our audience, specifically here on Bloomberg TV 136 00:06:36,600 --> 00:06:37,480 Speaker 2: and radio, dealing. 137 00:06:37,279 --> 00:06:40,760 Speaker 4: With massive amounts of uncertainty right now, whether it's this 138 00:06:40,839 --> 00:06:43,920 Speaker 4: budget resolution, what form of tax cuts, how long will 139 00:06:43,960 --> 00:06:47,000 Speaker 4: the extension be? Don't even ask me about dog Well. 140 00:06:47,000 --> 00:06:49,239 Speaker 2: And then there's on the subject of dough and attempts 141 00:06:49,240 --> 00:06:52,000 Speaker 2: to cut spending. What it all means for a deficit 142 00:06:52,120 --> 00:06:55,280 Speaker 2: that the bond market increasingly seems a bit worried about. 143 00:06:55,320 --> 00:06:57,799 Speaker 2: And that is something that we spoke with Maya McGuinness 144 00:06:57,839 --> 00:07:01,200 Speaker 2: of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget about last night. 145 00:07:01,279 --> 00:07:03,560 Speaker 2: She was walking us through the actual math here WHI 146 00:07:03,560 --> 00:07:05,359 Speaker 2: should her view doesn't make sense. 147 00:07:06,440 --> 00:07:08,719 Speaker 7: We can also scale back the price tag of this 148 00:07:08,839 --> 00:07:12,360 Speaker 7: tax cut four and a half trillion, five trillion. This 149 00:07:12,480 --> 00:07:15,800 Speaker 7: makes no sense given our fiscal situation right now. If 150 00:07:15,800 --> 00:07:18,400 Speaker 7: we want to extend these tax cuts, we should extend 151 00:07:18,400 --> 00:07:21,200 Speaker 7: the ones that are most pro growth, most important, and 152 00:07:21,400 --> 00:07:23,520 Speaker 7: all settle as a lot of them by broadening the 153 00:07:23,560 --> 00:07:27,000 Speaker 7: tax base. There's eighty five trillion dollars in spending over 154 00:07:27,040 --> 00:07:29,880 Speaker 7: ten years. They're cutting two trillion out of that. This 155 00:07:30,040 --> 00:07:32,600 Speaker 7: is not taking a sledge hammer to the government. It's 156 00:07:32,640 --> 00:07:33,880 Speaker 7: a very small amount. 157 00:07:36,440 --> 00:07:38,440 Speaker 2: So for more on this, we turned to Libby Cantrell, 158 00:07:38,480 --> 00:07:41,040 Speaker 2: pimco's head of US Public Policy, who was here with 159 00:07:41,160 --> 00:07:43,840 Speaker 2: us on Balance of Power. Libby, I'm sure you're getting 160 00:07:43,880 --> 00:07:47,600 Speaker 2: a lot of questions about this tax package, and welcome back. 161 00:07:47,640 --> 00:07:49,720 Speaker 2: It's good to see you. What aren't you telling clients 162 00:07:49,760 --> 00:07:51,760 Speaker 2: that ask, ay, if this is all going to be 163 00:07:51,800 --> 00:07:53,320 Speaker 2: able to get done in the first place and be 164 00:07:53,440 --> 00:07:55,440 Speaker 2: what it means in the long term. If yes, markets 165 00:07:55,480 --> 00:07:57,800 Speaker 2: like tax cuts, but there's also the deficit to consider. 166 00:07:59,000 --> 00:08:01,240 Speaker 8: Yeah, to be with you, I mean, I think you 167 00:08:01,280 --> 00:08:04,000 Speaker 8: know the sort of the bottom line that our clients 168 00:08:04,000 --> 00:08:07,400 Speaker 8: are most interested in is it's your earlier point. Will 169 00:08:07,440 --> 00:08:10,840 Speaker 8: this get done and for how long? I think there's 170 00:08:10,880 --> 00:08:14,640 Speaker 8: a real question of whether this is extended for a 171 00:08:14,640 --> 00:08:17,800 Speaker 8: short period of time just several years, whether it's extended 172 00:08:17,800 --> 00:08:20,280 Speaker 8: for the entire what's called the budget window for ten years, 173 00:08:20,760 --> 00:08:24,120 Speaker 8: or whether it's made permanent. And of course they're members 174 00:08:24,160 --> 00:08:28,160 Speaker 8: in the Senate in particular, Setate Finance Chairman Mike Crapo 175 00:08:28,280 --> 00:08:32,160 Speaker 8: in particular, who wants to see an extension, you know, 176 00:08:32,559 --> 00:08:34,959 Speaker 8: a permanent extension. So I think that, you know, for 177 00:08:35,600 --> 00:08:39,040 Speaker 8: kind of the bond market, for investors and client our clients, 178 00:08:39,280 --> 00:08:42,480 Speaker 8: I think they're most focused on, you know, will this 179 00:08:42,679 --> 00:08:45,360 Speaker 8: get done? And I think our message is unequivocally yes, 180 00:08:45,480 --> 00:08:49,000 Speaker 8: this will. But again, there are just some questions about 181 00:08:49,000 --> 00:08:51,280 Speaker 8: what the kind of the scope of this looks like 182 00:08:51,320 --> 00:08:53,480 Speaker 8: and if this is just an extension or whether they're 183 00:08:53,520 --> 00:08:56,240 Speaker 8: additional task cuts. The other thing I will just say is, 184 00:08:56,520 --> 00:08:59,400 Speaker 8: you know, more more clients are asking, as maybe some 185 00:08:59,440 --> 00:09:03,320 Speaker 8: concerns of growth or starting to weigh on the market, 186 00:09:03,440 --> 00:09:06,800 Speaker 8: is what the cuts would look like and how draconian 187 00:09:06,880 --> 00:09:10,560 Speaker 8: are they, how frontloaded they are, and how significant could 188 00:09:10,559 --> 00:09:13,160 Speaker 8: they be from a growth perspective. So kind of two 189 00:09:13,320 --> 00:09:14,080 Speaker 8: sides of the coin. 190 00:09:14,160 --> 00:09:17,160 Speaker 4: Of course, it's great to see you back, Libby. Where's 191 00:09:17,160 --> 00:09:20,120 Speaker 4: your optimism coming from? Because, as you point out in 192 00:09:20,160 --> 00:09:22,720 Speaker 4: your notes to clients just yesterday, getting them ready for 193 00:09:22,760 --> 00:09:26,400 Speaker 4: this moment, the Ultimate Reconciliation Bill is this is basically 194 00:09:26,520 --> 00:09:30,199 Speaker 4: instructions the guardrails for the ultimate reconciliation build and we 195 00:09:30,240 --> 00:09:31,240 Speaker 4: can't even agree on this. 196 00:09:31,320 --> 00:09:32,320 Speaker 5: What makes you think. 197 00:09:32,400 --> 00:09:36,200 Speaker 4: The actual bill with the actual money inside, can pass 198 00:09:36,480 --> 00:09:38,320 Speaker 4: with a majority of one. 199 00:09:39,960 --> 00:09:42,920 Speaker 8: Well, Joe, it is a good question. But my optimism, 200 00:09:43,280 --> 00:09:46,079 Speaker 8: I think, just comes from the place that there really 201 00:09:47,120 --> 00:09:51,600 Speaker 8: is no decision otherwise. This is in many ways existential 202 00:09:51,720 --> 00:09:55,360 Speaker 8: for House members and for members of the Senate. They 203 00:09:55,480 --> 00:09:59,640 Speaker 8: just simply cannot let the US economy kind of go 204 00:09:59,720 --> 00:10:02,320 Speaker 8: over this fiscal cliff, if you will, That's how they 205 00:10:02,360 --> 00:10:06,320 Speaker 8: would characterize it. So for politically speaking, there really is 206 00:10:06,440 --> 00:10:09,280 Speaker 8: no other choice, and as we all know, political expedients 207 00:10:09,600 --> 00:10:13,080 Speaker 8: oftentimes rules the day in Washington. So that is where 208 00:10:13,080 --> 00:10:16,840 Speaker 8: my optimism is coming from. However, I do think it 209 00:10:16,880 --> 00:10:20,320 Speaker 8: is going to be a circuitous route to get to 210 00:10:20,400 --> 00:10:24,280 Speaker 8: that destination, as we are just seen. As you point out, 211 00:10:24,320 --> 00:10:26,840 Speaker 8: if you can only lose one vote, that's not really 212 00:10:26,880 --> 00:10:30,080 Speaker 8: a governing majority, if you will, even on something like 213 00:10:30,200 --> 00:10:32,839 Speaker 8: tax cuts, and particularly when you sort of put into 214 00:10:32,880 --> 00:10:36,520 Speaker 8: more controversial items like potential Medicaid cuts. So this will 215 00:10:36,559 --> 00:10:40,040 Speaker 8: not be again a linear road by any means, but 216 00:10:40,400 --> 00:10:42,920 Speaker 8: we're confident by the end of this year you will 217 00:10:42,920 --> 00:10:45,400 Speaker 8: see an extension of the tax cuts again, just a 218 00:10:45,480 --> 00:10:48,400 Speaker 8: question for how long and if there are additional task 219 00:10:48,520 --> 00:10:50,960 Speaker 8: cuts and accompanied by other spending cuts. 220 00:10:52,120 --> 00:10:54,920 Speaker 2: Are you as confident Libby that lawmakers can find a 221 00:10:54,920 --> 00:10:57,920 Speaker 2: way to avert a shutdown just weeks from now, ors 222 00:10:57,960 --> 00:10:59,760 Speaker 2: that something markets need to start bracing for. 223 00:11:01,040 --> 00:11:03,040 Speaker 8: Yeah, well, again, I think markets are you know, have 224 00:11:03,160 --> 00:11:07,679 Speaker 8: become and maybe rightfully so, relatively impervious to this sort 225 00:11:07,720 --> 00:11:10,320 Speaker 8: of shut down rhetoric. I think that folks sort of 226 00:11:10,360 --> 00:11:13,840 Speaker 8: assume that they've seen this movie before that even if 227 00:11:13,840 --> 00:11:17,680 Speaker 8: the government does shut down, as long as it's a 228 00:11:17,720 --> 00:11:21,760 Speaker 8: temporary shutdown, that it actually hasn't really weighed on economic growth. 229 00:11:22,800 --> 00:11:25,120 Speaker 8: I think it's probably too early to put odds on 230 00:11:25,440 --> 00:11:28,000 Speaker 8: whether there will be a shutdown. I do agree though, 231 00:11:28,400 --> 00:11:32,200 Speaker 8: with the previous reporter that you know that Democrats are 232 00:11:32,240 --> 00:11:34,760 Speaker 8: really not don't have really any appetite to play ball 233 00:11:34,800 --> 00:11:37,760 Speaker 8: with Republicans right now. I think there's some real concerns 234 00:11:37,760 --> 00:11:41,480 Speaker 8: that they're hearing from their constituents about the DOGE impact 235 00:11:41,520 --> 00:11:44,640 Speaker 8: and particularly around federal employee terminations and what have you. 236 00:11:44,960 --> 00:11:47,640 Speaker 8: So I think they're going to want something in order 237 00:11:47,760 --> 00:11:51,240 Speaker 8: to you know, to advance a government funding bill. And 238 00:11:51,280 --> 00:11:53,679 Speaker 8: I think it's just the real question is whether Republicans 239 00:11:53,679 --> 00:11:55,880 Speaker 8: are willing to give that to them. So I think, again, 240 00:11:56,000 --> 00:11:59,280 Speaker 8: probably too early to say, and you never underestimate kind 241 00:11:59,320 --> 00:12:03,120 Speaker 8: of the power of again political expedients. And I think 242 00:12:03,120 --> 00:12:06,040 Speaker 8: that the political incentive here is to keep the government funded. 243 00:12:06,080 --> 00:12:08,720 Speaker 8: But you know, again open question of whether they'll play 244 00:12:08,760 --> 00:12:09,480 Speaker 8: ball with each other. 245 00:12:10,400 --> 00:12:12,880 Speaker 4: Well, that's a pretty difficult balancing act that you're describing 246 00:12:12,880 --> 00:12:15,000 Speaker 4: there for Mike Johnson. And I suppose he's getting. 247 00:12:14,840 --> 00:12:15,400 Speaker 9: Used to these. 248 00:12:15,960 --> 00:12:19,840 Speaker 4: If he ostracizes Democrats here in the budget resolution but 249 00:12:20,000 --> 00:12:22,960 Speaker 4: needs to rely on them to pass a continuing resolution 250 00:12:23,520 --> 00:12:26,559 Speaker 4: to keep the government funded, how does he do both? 251 00:12:28,360 --> 00:12:30,560 Speaker 8: Yeah, I mean I do not you know, I don't 252 00:12:30,559 --> 00:12:35,400 Speaker 8: think any of us and the Speaker Johnson's position right now. Again, 253 00:12:35,520 --> 00:12:39,680 Speaker 8: I mean, he has the smallest Republican majority in the 254 00:12:39,720 --> 00:12:43,760 Speaker 8: history of the Republican Party. Uh, so he is, you know, 255 00:12:43,840 --> 00:12:47,720 Speaker 8: he is really trying to navigate a very difficult, uh, 256 00:12:47,920 --> 00:12:50,840 Speaker 8: you know road right now. And I think that you know, 257 00:12:50,960 --> 00:12:53,720 Speaker 8: Jim as you know, I think that the Joe that 258 00:12:53,880 --> 00:12:57,320 Speaker 8: the that the reconciliation package is going to be a 259 00:12:57,320 --> 00:13:00,880 Speaker 8: partisan package. So I think that your Democrats were expected 260 00:13:00,920 --> 00:13:03,480 Speaker 8: to be alienated. I don't think they were expected to 261 00:13:03,520 --> 00:13:06,800 Speaker 8: be included in this process. But again, I think that 262 00:13:06,880 --> 00:13:09,160 Speaker 8: there is going to be some sort of you know, 263 00:13:09,240 --> 00:13:13,560 Speaker 8: demand for concessions from Republicans going into this government funding fight. 264 00:13:13,600 --> 00:13:15,840 Speaker 8: And I think it's a question of whether Speaker Johnson 265 00:13:15,840 --> 00:13:18,040 Speaker 8: feels like he can give that to Democrats. And again, 266 00:13:18,040 --> 00:13:20,480 Speaker 8: I think that's really really an open question. He has 267 00:13:20,520 --> 00:13:23,079 Speaker 8: a very full plate, though, I think that's the upshot. 268 00:13:23,240 --> 00:13:24,839 Speaker 8: And then, of course we haven't even talked about the 269 00:13:24,880 --> 00:13:27,720 Speaker 8: debt ceiling. And even though the debt ceiling increase is 270 00:13:27,760 --> 00:13:31,960 Speaker 8: included in this reconciliation, there is this budget package. You know, 271 00:13:31,960 --> 00:13:34,120 Speaker 8: I think it remains to be seen whether that's addressed 272 00:13:34,160 --> 00:13:36,200 Speaker 8: as well. So this is going to be a very 273 00:13:36,240 --> 00:13:40,959 Speaker 8: you know, busy few months for the Speaker. And again, 274 00:13:41,240 --> 00:13:44,160 Speaker 8: you know, I don't think any sort of an enviable position, 275 00:13:44,600 --> 00:13:45,120 Speaker 8: you know, by and. 276 00:13:45,200 --> 00:13:49,080 Speaker 2: Large, well, the President's been busy too, Libyan. In our 277 00:13:49,120 --> 00:13:52,320 Speaker 2: final moments here, he told our colleague Jordan Fabian at 278 00:13:52,320 --> 00:13:54,680 Speaker 2: the White House yesterday that he is intending to move 279 00:13:54,720 --> 00:13:58,240 Speaker 2: forward with twenty five percent tariffs on Canadian and Mexican 280 00:13:58,280 --> 00:14:01,160 Speaker 2: goods a week from today day. Do you call that bluff? 281 00:14:02,880 --> 00:14:04,280 Speaker 8: Well, I don't think, you know, we're not in a 282 00:14:04,320 --> 00:14:07,880 Speaker 8: position to call the president's bluff or or not. I 283 00:14:07,920 --> 00:14:11,520 Speaker 8: will say, though, Okaylee, that what we're hearing from our 284 00:14:11,559 --> 00:14:15,400 Speaker 8: clients is both domestically and abroad, is a lot of 285 00:14:15,480 --> 00:14:20,720 Speaker 8: concern just about just tariffs writ large, of course, but 286 00:14:20,840 --> 00:14:24,840 Speaker 8: particularly on these potential twenty five percent tariffs on Canada 287 00:14:24,840 --> 00:14:28,400 Speaker 8: and Mexico. As we all know, the three economies are 288 00:14:28,440 --> 00:14:32,560 Speaker 8: incredibly enmeshed. There could be a lot of knock on effects, 289 00:14:32,560 --> 00:14:35,400 Speaker 8: both from an inflation perspective, but even more from a 290 00:14:35,440 --> 00:14:37,880 Speaker 8: growth perspective. I think this is something that the market 291 00:14:38,280 --> 00:14:41,640 Speaker 8: may you know, they're very oriented towards the inflationary impacts 292 00:14:41,640 --> 00:14:44,680 Speaker 8: of tariffs, but you know, we have a guided our 293 00:14:44,840 --> 00:14:48,480 Speaker 8: clients to be focused just on the headwind of growth 294 00:14:48,720 --> 00:14:52,000 Speaker 8: from tariffs as well, and particularly if you put twenty 295 00:14:52,000 --> 00:14:54,480 Speaker 8: five percent on Canada and Mexico. Again, just given how 296 00:14:54,640 --> 00:14:57,280 Speaker 8: entrenched those economies are, so a lot of concerns. I 297 00:14:57,280 --> 00:15:00,800 Speaker 8: don't again, not calling his bluff or not, but we 298 00:15:00,840 --> 00:15:02,480 Speaker 8: had to take his threat seriously. He is, of course 299 00:15:02,480 --> 00:15:02,800 Speaker 8: the President. 300 00:15:02,800 --> 00:15:06,040 Speaker 4: The United States program is brought to us by the 301 00:15:06,040 --> 00:15:09,080 Speaker 4: word uncertainty today. Libby Cantrill, thank you so much Libby. 302 00:15:09,120 --> 00:15:10,800 Speaker 4: It's great to see you back with us here on 303 00:15:10,840 --> 00:15:13,520 Speaker 4: Balance of Power. Head of you US Public Policy at PIMCO. 304 00:15:13,680 --> 00:15:16,920 Speaker 4: I'm Joe Matthew alongside Kaylee Lions will assemble our panel. Next, 305 00:15:16,960 --> 00:15:19,920 Speaker 4: we have both Rick Davis and Jeanie Shanzeno with us 306 00:15:20,240 --> 00:15:22,480 Speaker 4: as we stare down the barrel of a possible vote 307 00:15:22,520 --> 00:15:25,040 Speaker 4: on a budget resolution later today in the House and 308 00:15:25,080 --> 00:15:28,240 Speaker 4: count down to a possible government shutdown the middle of 309 00:15:28,280 --> 00:15:30,480 Speaker 4: next month. It's all ahead right here on Bloomberg. 310 00:15:32,600 --> 00:15:36,080 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power Podcast. Catch 311 00:15:36,160 --> 00:15:39,200 Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on 312 00:15:39,320 --> 00:15:42,560 Speaker 1: Apple Cockley and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. 313 00:15:42,600 --> 00:15:45,640 Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our 314 00:15:45,640 --> 00:15:50,880 Speaker 1: flagship New York station. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 315 00:15:51,640 --> 00:15:54,640 Speaker 2: Stop me if you've heard this before. But here in Washington, 316 00:15:54,680 --> 00:15:57,640 Speaker 2: on Capitol Hill, specifically, we find the Speaker of the House, 317 00:15:57,640 --> 00:16:00,800 Speaker 2: to Mike Johnson, in a pretty tough spot today. He, 318 00:16:00,880 --> 00:16:03,600 Speaker 2: of course, trying to get a budget resolution through his 319 00:16:03,720 --> 00:16:06,960 Speaker 2: chamber with only the votes of his conference. Just Republicans 320 00:16:06,960 --> 00:16:09,640 Speaker 2: are expected to get this thing across the finish line. 321 00:16:09,760 --> 00:16:13,040 Speaker 2: And once again counting them with only one vote that 322 00:16:13,080 --> 00:16:16,160 Speaker 2: he can afford to lose is proving to be pretty difficult. 323 00:16:16,720 --> 00:16:19,400 Speaker 4: So it's just another Tuesday. Yeah, are you suggesting that. 324 00:16:19,360 --> 00:16:21,000 Speaker 5: We've seen this movie before a few times? 325 00:16:21,000 --> 00:16:24,440 Speaker 4: Maybe Mike Johnson has majority of one though, is sort 326 00:16:24,440 --> 00:16:26,520 Speaker 4: of new level, to the point where at least Aphonic 327 00:16:26,600 --> 00:16:29,680 Speaker 4: has to hang around Washington for weeks longer than expected. 328 00:16:30,040 --> 00:16:32,840 Speaker 4: Instead of being confirmed as our next ambassador to the UN, 329 00:16:33,400 --> 00:16:38,360 Speaker 4: they have basically shelved the confirmation process to maintain the 330 00:16:38,560 --> 00:16:41,800 Speaker 4: one seat majority that we're talking about today, and it 331 00:16:41,840 --> 00:16:43,280 Speaker 4: is unclear if we're even going to get a vote 332 00:16:43,280 --> 00:16:47,080 Speaker 4: on a budget resolution, Kaylee, because corraling all of these 333 00:16:47,120 --> 00:16:49,960 Speaker 4: members to agree on this massive bill has proven this, 334 00:16:50,040 --> 00:16:52,080 Speaker 4: at least so far, be impossible for Mike Johnson. 335 00:16:52,160 --> 00:16:53,960 Speaker 2: Yeah, we were just checking in with our colleague Jack 336 00:16:53,960 --> 00:16:57,280 Speaker 2: Fitzpatrick from Bloomberg Government, who said, already four Republicans have 337 00:16:57,400 --> 00:16:59,880 Speaker 2: said they are nos at this point, and unless that 338 00:17:00,200 --> 00:17:03,080 Speaker 2: change in a matter of hours, hard to see how 339 00:17:03,120 --> 00:17:05,359 Speaker 2: you justify putting this thing on the floor. Although this 340 00:17:05,400 --> 00:17:08,200 Speaker 2: speaker also has not been shy and letting things well, 341 00:17:08,280 --> 00:17:11,359 Speaker 2: that's true, before all the votes are and solidly in 342 00:17:11,400 --> 00:17:11,879 Speaker 2: his corner. 343 00:17:11,960 --> 00:17:14,880 Speaker 4: Miracles can happen. He was asked, committed to the vote 344 00:17:14,920 --> 00:17:17,040 Speaker 4: being today. This is a direct quote. There may be 345 00:17:17,040 --> 00:17:20,080 Speaker 4: a vote tonight, there may not be. Stay tuned. That's 346 00:17:20,080 --> 00:17:22,440 Speaker 4: where we start with our signature panel. Rick and Jennie 347 00:17:22,480 --> 00:17:25,080 Speaker 4: are both with us today on Balance of Power. Rick Davis, 348 00:17:25,119 --> 00:17:28,200 Speaker 4: Republican strategist and partner at Stone Court Capital. Genie is 349 00:17:28,200 --> 00:17:31,240 Speaker 4: our democratic analyst and senior democracy Fellow with the Center 350 00:17:31,240 --> 00:17:34,399 Speaker 4: for the Study of the Presidency and Congress. Genie, I'm 351 00:17:34,440 --> 00:17:36,520 Speaker 4: pretty sure there are no Democrats who are going to 352 00:17:36,560 --> 00:17:40,440 Speaker 4: help out with this process today. Can Mike Johnson get 353 00:17:40,480 --> 00:17:42,359 Speaker 4: Republicans to clear this bill? 354 00:17:43,640 --> 00:17:43,880 Speaker 9: Yeah? 355 00:17:44,080 --> 00:17:46,440 Speaker 10: That statement he made was about as clear as mud. 356 00:17:46,480 --> 00:17:49,760 Speaker 10: There may there may not be. You know, certainly no 357 00:17:49,880 --> 00:17:52,440 Speaker 10: Democrats are going to go along. But I'm going to 358 00:17:52,480 --> 00:17:54,439 Speaker 10: go out on a limb here and say if I 359 00:17:54,640 --> 00:17:57,480 Speaker 10: was Donald Trump, which I clearly am not, I would 360 00:17:57,520 --> 00:18:00,239 Speaker 10: say to Mike Johnson, this is about the easiest thing 361 00:18:00,280 --> 00:18:02,480 Speaker 10: I'm asking you to do. I know you have a 362 00:18:02,520 --> 00:18:06,640 Speaker 10: one vote majority, but here's the reality. You are asking 363 00:18:06,760 --> 00:18:09,600 Speaker 10: people to vote to move forward. There is nothing in 364 00:18:09,640 --> 00:18:12,800 Speaker 10: this language which talks about cutting on Medicaid or anything else. 365 00:18:13,240 --> 00:18:17,160 Speaker 10: So if he cannot bring these people to help them 366 00:18:17,200 --> 00:18:21,040 Speaker 10: move forward for a budget blueprint, how is he going 367 00:18:21,080 --> 00:18:23,920 Speaker 10: to get to the next difficult step of putting actual 368 00:18:24,040 --> 00:18:27,480 Speaker 10: numbers and cuts on the table. So, if I'm Donald Trump, 369 00:18:27,560 --> 00:18:29,920 Speaker 10: I'm thinking of this as like, this is it, Mike, 370 00:18:30,280 --> 00:18:33,040 Speaker 10: you get this vote. If you can't do this, there's 371 00:18:33,080 --> 00:18:35,560 Speaker 10: no hope. So I think Mike Johnson gets this done 372 00:18:35,600 --> 00:18:36,200 Speaker 10: at some point. 373 00:18:37,840 --> 00:18:41,159 Speaker 2: Well, if we all just rewind to January when Mike 374 00:18:41,200 --> 00:18:43,159 Speaker 2: Johnson was trying to get the speaker's gavel in the 375 00:18:43,160 --> 00:18:44,920 Speaker 2: first place and didn't look like he was going to 376 00:18:44,960 --> 00:18:47,520 Speaker 2: have the votes on the first round, Guess who got 377 00:18:47,520 --> 00:18:50,320 Speaker 2: on the phone, Rick Davis. It was then President elect 378 00:18:50,359 --> 00:18:53,119 Speaker 2: Donald Trump to force the hand of those Republicans who 379 00:18:53,160 --> 00:18:55,199 Speaker 2: were still holdouts. Do you think we could see something 380 00:18:55,600 --> 00:18:56,640 Speaker 2: similar happen here? 381 00:18:57,440 --> 00:19:01,520 Speaker 11: Yeah? I suspect even today, if Johnson doesn't have the votes, 382 00:19:01,560 --> 00:19:05,680 Speaker 11: and it sounds like he doesn't and it's not that close, 383 00:19:05,800 --> 00:19:08,520 Speaker 11: if he has three or four, then he probably has 384 00:19:08,640 --> 00:19:13,399 Speaker 11: more holdouts. Then he's going to need some help. And 385 00:19:13,480 --> 00:19:15,920 Speaker 11: what's interesting is some of the reporting we've been getting 386 00:19:15,960 --> 00:19:18,359 Speaker 11: from our team at Bloomberg is that some of these 387 00:19:18,400 --> 00:19:21,119 Speaker 11: folks haven't even been contacted yet. So before you go 388 00:19:21,160 --> 00:19:23,439 Speaker 11: to Donald Trump, maybe it's better to have your whip 389 00:19:23,840 --> 00:19:28,240 Speaker 11: actually do a vote count and these would be standard 390 00:19:28,320 --> 00:19:32,520 Speaker 11: operating procedures before a big vote like this. So I 391 00:19:32,600 --> 00:19:36,320 Speaker 11: guess we maybe are on a slow roll and this 392 00:19:36,440 --> 00:19:38,200 Speaker 11: is going to take longer and they've got to reach 393 00:19:38,240 --> 00:19:42,240 Speaker 11: out to some of these recalcuatrant members. But Donald Trump's 394 00:19:42,240 --> 00:19:44,320 Speaker 11: not going to want his big, beautiful bill to fail. 395 00:19:45,280 --> 00:19:48,640 Speaker 11: That actually reflects poorly on him. He has no distance 396 00:19:48,720 --> 00:19:52,200 Speaker 11: between him and the House Republicans. He is the basically 397 00:19:52,400 --> 00:19:55,760 Speaker 11: the speaker of the House of Representative. He owns that 398 00:19:55,880 --> 00:19:58,640 Speaker 11: caucus and so if he's going to own it, then 399 00:19:58,640 --> 00:20:00,240 Speaker 11: he better make sure it doesn't break. 400 00:20:01,720 --> 00:20:02,840 Speaker 4: Well, what do you think about that? 401 00:20:03,000 --> 00:20:03,160 Speaker 12: Rick? 402 00:20:03,240 --> 00:20:06,440 Speaker 4: Tom Massey hasn't even gotten a phone call yet. Meanwhile, 403 00:20:06,480 --> 00:20:09,600 Speaker 4: Mike Johnson was in meetings late last night that resumed 404 00:20:10,040 --> 00:20:12,640 Speaker 4: again earlier this morning. Is this a speaker who's still 405 00:20:12,720 --> 00:20:13,440 Speaker 4: learning on the job. 406 00:20:15,040 --> 00:20:19,280 Speaker 11: Well, for sure, he's always had some issues with vote counting, 407 00:20:20,119 --> 00:20:25,680 Speaker 11: and you really wonder what's going on in the leadership. 408 00:20:25,760 --> 00:20:27,800 Speaker 11: Scalise just a couple of hours ago was out saying 409 00:20:27,840 --> 00:20:32,000 Speaker 11: we're still going to vote today, and so you know, 410 00:20:33,119 --> 00:20:35,600 Speaker 11: doesn't seem like they've got the best of communication. And 411 00:20:35,640 --> 00:20:38,840 Speaker 11: this is a speaker who is actually spent a lot 412 00:20:38,840 --> 00:20:43,240 Speaker 11: of time, unlike previous speakers, getting into one on one 413 00:20:43,280 --> 00:20:47,119 Speaker 11: conversations with members broker in these deals rather than having 414 00:20:47,160 --> 00:20:50,920 Speaker 11: his leadership to him, like Scalise, give them at least 415 00:20:50,920 --> 00:20:53,760 Speaker 11: some deniability so that he can weigh in with any 416 00:20:53,800 --> 00:20:56,560 Speaker 11: benefits that need to go to these members in order 417 00:20:56,600 --> 00:20:58,080 Speaker 11: to get them to do the right thing for the 418 00:20:58,280 --> 00:21:01,600 Speaker 11: for the leadership. So you know, this is not what 419 00:21:01,640 --> 00:21:04,640 Speaker 11: you've gotten used to if you've been hanging around Washington 420 00:21:04,680 --> 00:21:07,399 Speaker 11: for a long time and watch the powerful job of 421 00:21:07,440 --> 00:21:11,800 Speaker 11: the speaker get executed in a more i would say, 422 00:21:12,080 --> 00:21:13,320 Speaker 11: refined method. 423 00:21:14,840 --> 00:21:16,639 Speaker 2: Well, if we think about what we heard from Steve 424 00:21:16,680 --> 00:21:20,000 Speaker 2: Scalice earlier this morning, as the Republican leadership in the 425 00:21:20,000 --> 00:21:24,480 Speaker 2: House spoke to journalist Genie he noted that medicaid cuts 426 00:21:24,520 --> 00:21:27,880 Speaker 2: are not actually mandated in the language of this budget resolution. 427 00:21:27,960 --> 00:21:30,080 Speaker 2: It's just where everybody is naturally drawing a line when 428 00:21:30,080 --> 00:21:32,000 Speaker 2: they see eight hundred and eighty billion dollars that need 429 00:21:32,040 --> 00:21:35,440 Speaker 2: to be cut in the Energy and Commerce Committee specifically, 430 00:21:35,480 --> 00:21:37,680 Speaker 2: Does he have a point there, as Democrats are trying 431 00:21:37,720 --> 00:21:40,920 Speaker 2: to say, this is Republicans setting the stage to cut 432 00:21:40,960 --> 00:21:45,280 Speaker 2: Medicaid benefits. Is there still some cover provided to those 433 00:21:45,359 --> 00:21:48,359 Speaker 2: moderate Republicans potentially who are considering voting yes for this. 434 00:21:49,680 --> 00:21:51,720 Speaker 10: Yeah, that's absolutely right. There is cover. 435 00:21:51,840 --> 00:21:52,000 Speaker 12: Now. 436 00:21:52,040 --> 00:21:55,040 Speaker 10: The reality is there's no other place to cut. So 437 00:21:55,200 --> 00:21:58,480 Speaker 10: once they get this blueprint, if they do, it's going 438 00:21:58,560 --> 00:22:01,439 Speaker 10: to be Medicaid. So the Democrats are absolutely right on that. 439 00:22:02,000 --> 00:22:05,040 Speaker 10: But the reality is they do have that cover. And 440 00:22:05,160 --> 00:22:08,119 Speaker 10: this is why I go back to if this is 441 00:22:08,160 --> 00:22:11,440 Speaker 10: the biggest test Mike Johnson faces and he can't jump 442 00:22:11,480 --> 00:22:14,760 Speaker 10: over this hurdle, how can he be expected or how 443 00:22:14,760 --> 00:22:17,399 Speaker 10: can the president have any faith he would be able 444 00:22:17,440 --> 00:22:20,639 Speaker 10: to get the next really difficult part of this done, 445 00:22:20,800 --> 00:22:23,480 Speaker 10: which is going to be the actual cuts. So I 446 00:22:23,600 --> 00:22:26,680 Speaker 10: don't think this is a huge haul for Mike Johnson, 447 00:22:27,000 --> 00:22:29,040 Speaker 10: but if it proves to be and he doesn't get 448 00:22:29,040 --> 00:22:32,400 Speaker 10: this done, this votes very badly. And I agree with Rick, 449 00:22:32,840 --> 00:22:36,240 Speaker 10: this is a huge, huge legacy moment for Donald Trump. 450 00:22:36,600 --> 00:22:39,720 Speaker 10: Legacies are not built on eos, no matter how many 451 00:22:39,800 --> 00:22:43,480 Speaker 10: of them you sign. It is all about legislation. Joe 452 00:22:43,480 --> 00:22:45,920 Speaker 10: Biden got a lot of legislation done in his first year. 453 00:22:46,160 --> 00:22:49,119 Speaker 10: If Donald Trump cannot keep that up, if he cannot 454 00:22:49,359 --> 00:22:52,000 Speaker 10: meet that moment, he is not gonna have a legacy 455 00:22:52,040 --> 00:22:54,480 Speaker 10: to stand on. And he knows that, which is why 456 00:22:54,520 --> 00:22:56,560 Speaker 10: what happens today and in the next few months in 457 00:22:56,840 --> 00:22:59,560 Speaker 10: the House, or what doesn't happen, is gonna be so 458 00:23:00,000 --> 00:23:00,600 Speaker 10: sortant to him. 459 00:23:01,520 --> 00:23:03,159 Speaker 4: That's when I mentioned a couple of headlines that are 460 00:23:03,160 --> 00:23:05,760 Speaker 4: coming from the White House briefing room right now. Caroline 461 00:23:05,800 --> 00:23:09,000 Speaker 4: Levitt is briefing reporters as we speak with a million 462 00:23:09,080 --> 00:23:12,560 Speaker 4: federal workers. We see the headline now responding to the 463 00:23:12,600 --> 00:23:15,240 Speaker 4: email requests that went out for them to justify their 464 00:23:15,359 --> 00:23:18,560 Speaker 4: jobs for last week. There's still some confusion over a 465 00:23:18,600 --> 00:23:21,560 Speaker 4: new midnight deadline tonight as agencies tell their workers not 466 00:23:21,640 --> 00:23:26,000 Speaker 4: to acknowledge Elon Musk's email. Also, Kaylee, Donald Trump expecting 467 00:23:26,080 --> 00:23:29,320 Speaker 4: Vladimir Zelenski to sign a minerals deal. I guess that's 468 00:23:29,359 --> 00:23:31,800 Speaker 4: not too far away from what he said yesterday, suggesting 469 00:23:32,280 --> 00:23:34,120 Speaker 4: when Scott Bessen spoke that they were on the one 470 00:23:34,160 --> 00:23:34,680 Speaker 4: yard line. 471 00:23:34,760 --> 00:23:37,479 Speaker 2: Yeah, the Treasury Secretary certainly sounded optimistic, and we heard 472 00:23:37,520 --> 00:23:40,000 Speaker 2: from the President as he had the French President Emmanuel 473 00:23:40,080 --> 00:23:43,159 Speaker 2: Macron there with him. At the White House, suggesting that 474 00:23:43,200 --> 00:23:45,960 Speaker 2: Vladimir's Lensky, at least in Trump's mind, could make a 475 00:23:45,960 --> 00:23:48,600 Speaker 2: trip to Washington this week or next to actually sign. 476 00:23:48,440 --> 00:23:51,119 Speaker 4: This there, which might fulfill that headline as we learn more. 477 00:23:51,320 --> 00:23:53,640 Speaker 4: Interesting though, as we keep our eyes on the briefing room, 478 00:23:53,640 --> 00:23:55,400 Speaker 4: we haven't had a chance to talk about this much 479 00:23:55,440 --> 00:24:00,280 Speaker 4: with Rick and Jeanie. The competition that we're watching right 480 00:24:00,320 --> 00:24:03,040 Speaker 4: now between if I can use that word, the Trump 481 00:24:03,040 --> 00:24:06,200 Speaker 4: administration and the Associated Press. This has gone to the courts. 482 00:24:06,240 --> 00:24:08,760 Speaker 4: Of course, the AP was removed from a few Oval 483 00:24:08,760 --> 00:24:11,800 Speaker 4: Office events because they wouldn't call the Gulf of Mexico 484 00:24:11,880 --> 00:24:14,800 Speaker 4: the Gulf of America. By the way, they did move 485 00:24:15,320 --> 00:24:18,240 Speaker 4: Mount McKinley away from Denali, but that's a different matter. 486 00:24:18,280 --> 00:24:20,080 Speaker 4: A federal judge cleared the way for the White House 487 00:24:20,080 --> 00:24:23,440 Speaker 4: to continue barring the AP from these events. And interesting, Kayley, 488 00:24:23,480 --> 00:24:25,439 Speaker 4: as we were winding down the program yesterday, we were 489 00:24:25,440 --> 00:24:27,240 Speaker 4: looking at the briefing room sitting here in the studio, 490 00:24:27,320 --> 00:24:31,119 Speaker 4: we saw on the big led screens in there a 491 00:24:31,280 --> 00:24:35,320 Speaker 4: victory banner with an image of the Gulf of America 492 00:24:35,359 --> 00:24:38,600 Speaker 4: to troll the Associated Press, and Caroline Levitt has been 493 00:24:38,640 --> 00:24:43,320 Speaker 4: taking questions on this, Genie, I wonder your thoughts here. Quote, 494 00:24:43,320 --> 00:24:46,000 Speaker 4: it is beyond time the White House press operation reflects 495 00:24:46,040 --> 00:24:49,320 Speaker 4: the media habits of the American people in twenty twenty five, 496 00:24:49,880 --> 00:24:51,760 Speaker 4: not nineteen twenty five. 497 00:24:51,920 --> 00:24:55,400 Speaker 10: Is she right? No, she's not right. In fact, when 498 00:24:55,400 --> 00:24:57,280 Speaker 10: I heard there was a victory sign up in the 499 00:24:57,280 --> 00:25:00,000 Speaker 10: White House, I couldn't imagine what they were celebrating, because 500 00:25:00,119 --> 00:25:02,240 Speaker 10: and it hasn't been a very good few days for them, 501 00:25:02,600 --> 00:25:06,359 Speaker 10: But they are apparently celebrating what this judge decided. But 502 00:25:06,480 --> 00:25:09,720 Speaker 10: if they really paid attention to what he decided. He said, yes, 503 00:25:09,760 --> 00:25:12,160 Speaker 10: we're not going to order the AP back in right now, 504 00:25:12,440 --> 00:25:15,679 Speaker 10: but he said it is very possible that the AP 505 00:25:15,960 --> 00:25:19,439 Speaker 10: could win here because the White House did not follow 506 00:25:19,560 --> 00:25:23,000 Speaker 10: due process, arguably when it removed the AP for an 507 00:25:23,080 --> 00:25:26,480 Speaker 10: editorial decision. So I think this may be a little premature. 508 00:25:26,520 --> 00:25:28,639 Speaker 10: I'm having like, I don't know who was it George 509 00:25:28,680 --> 00:25:33,840 Speaker 10: Bush vibes about you know what did his sign say? 510 00:25:34,400 --> 00:25:35,040 Speaker 4: Accomplished? 511 00:25:38,200 --> 00:25:38,760 Speaker 12: He got those? 512 00:25:38,760 --> 00:25:39,040 Speaker 9: Well? 513 00:25:39,240 --> 00:25:42,280 Speaker 2: Rick Rick Way in here because the Press Secretary is 514 00:25:42,280 --> 00:25:44,359 Speaker 2: also telling journalists that the White House is going to 515 00:25:44,400 --> 00:25:47,760 Speaker 2: be opening it's presspool to new voices. We already, of course, 516 00:25:47,760 --> 00:25:50,880 Speaker 2: have seen the addition of some of those we're talking about, Yes, 517 00:25:50,960 --> 00:25:53,800 Speaker 2: different kind of journalists than we historically have seen covering 518 00:25:54,080 --> 00:25:56,360 Speaker 2: the White House. Does that serve a purpose in this 519 00:25:56,600 --> 00:25:57,680 Speaker 2: day and age. 520 00:25:58,320 --> 00:26:01,920 Speaker 11: Well, for sure. I think there's a realization that everyone 521 00:26:01,960 --> 00:26:06,160 Speaker 11: should make, which is podcasters are not only making news, 522 00:26:06,200 --> 00:26:10,800 Speaker 11: but conveying it, certainly their version of it, and it 523 00:26:10,840 --> 00:26:13,879 Speaker 11: has proliferated. Tens of millions, if not one, hundreds of 524 00:26:13,880 --> 00:26:18,920 Speaker 11: millions of Americans get their news from these unique digital sources. 525 00:26:19,080 --> 00:26:22,520 Speaker 11: And you see places like the Department of Defense bringing 526 00:26:22,720 --> 00:26:27,480 Speaker 11: podcasters in to run their public affairs business. They'll have 527 00:26:27,560 --> 00:26:30,960 Speaker 11: them in the room when they brief every day. So 528 00:26:31,119 --> 00:26:34,080 Speaker 11: this is just a recognition of a trend going forward. 529 00:26:34,280 --> 00:26:36,680 Speaker 11: I mean, the AP issue is a different issue, which 530 00:26:36,720 --> 00:26:41,600 Speaker 11: is getting kicked out for not you know, addressing the 531 00:26:41,600 --> 00:26:45,280 Speaker 11: Gulf of Mexico's Golf of America. And I guess I 532 00:26:45,320 --> 00:26:49,479 Speaker 11: would actually question, I mean, what's the relevance of the debate. 533 00:26:50,040 --> 00:26:53,800 Speaker 11: Do we really need a due process legal argument to 534 00:26:53,920 --> 00:26:56,960 Speaker 11: boot somebody out of the White House Press Office. I've 535 00:26:56,960 --> 00:26:59,960 Speaker 11: always had the impression that was a privilege, not a require. 536 00:27:01,200 --> 00:27:04,760 Speaker 11: I'd prefer to have AP, you know, on record every 537 00:27:04,800 --> 00:27:08,240 Speaker 11: single day reporting from the White House. But I think 538 00:27:08,240 --> 00:27:09,840 Speaker 11: that's really up to the White House. I mean, I 539 00:27:09,880 --> 00:27:13,560 Speaker 11: can't imagine there's an argument that says AP owns a 540 00:27:13,600 --> 00:27:15,680 Speaker 11: seat in the press room. 541 00:27:16,680 --> 00:27:19,480 Speaker 2: Yeah. Lots of First Amendment questions at play here that 542 00:27:19,520 --> 00:27:21,879 Speaker 2: we'll have to get into later on Rick Davis and 543 00:27:21,920 --> 00:27:24,480 Speaker 2: Genie Shanzino our signature political panel here with us on 544 00:27:24,560 --> 00:27:27,000 Speaker 2: Balance of Power. We'll have more ahead on Bloomberg TV 545 00:27:27,359 --> 00:27:27,959 Speaker 2: and radio. 546 00:27:31,280 --> 00:27:34,760 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch 547 00:27:34,840 --> 00:27:38,280 Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on Apple, 548 00:27:38,320 --> 00:27:41,680 Speaker 1: Cocklay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen 549 00:27:41,760 --> 00:27:44,880 Speaker 1: on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us 550 00:27:44,920 --> 00:27:46,280 Speaker 1: live on YouTube. 551 00:27:47,480 --> 00:27:49,640 Speaker 2: Plenty of talk about this yesterday at the White House 552 00:27:49,640 --> 00:27:52,879 Speaker 2: when Trump was meeting with French President Emmanuel McCrone. They 553 00:27:52,920 --> 00:27:55,280 Speaker 2: had long talk with reporters in the Oval ahead of 554 00:27:55,280 --> 00:27:58,360 Speaker 2: their bilateral meeting, then again at a joint press conference. 555 00:27:58,359 --> 00:28:01,800 Speaker 2: But interestingly, the very first question asked at that press 556 00:28:01,840 --> 00:28:04,439 Speaker 2: conference of President Trump, specifically, it was not about Ukraine, 557 00:28:04,520 --> 00:28:07,919 Speaker 2: not about relations with France. Instead, it was about the 558 00:28:07,960 --> 00:28:10,840 Speaker 2: new Harvard Harris poll that had come out showing pretty 559 00:28:10,840 --> 00:28:14,040 Speaker 2: good numbers for the president. This is what's Trump responded with. 560 00:28:14,920 --> 00:28:18,000 Speaker 12: It was a big poll, and it's usually a poll 561 00:28:18,000 --> 00:28:20,640 Speaker 12: that leans on the other side of things, the other 562 00:28:20,720 --> 00:28:23,479 Speaker 12: side of the world, so to speak. But the Harvard 563 00:28:23,480 --> 00:28:26,800 Speaker 12: Pole is a respected pole and it has us not 564 00:28:26,880 --> 00:28:29,199 Speaker 12: only leading, but leading by a lot, and leading on 565 00:28:29,280 --> 00:28:33,160 Speaker 12: every single issue that we've we've talked about and as 566 00:28:33,200 --> 00:28:35,399 Speaker 12: I said, we've become the Party of common sense. 567 00:28:37,400 --> 00:28:39,560 Speaker 2: So for more on this, we turned to Frank Lunz, 568 00:28:39,640 --> 00:28:43,960 Speaker 2: politics and communications consultant also CEO of fil INQ, is 569 00:28:44,040 --> 00:28:46,640 Speaker 2: here with us in our Washington, DC studio. It's been 570 00:28:46,640 --> 00:28:48,360 Speaker 2: a while, Frank, good to see you. Welcome back. 571 00:28:48,880 --> 00:28:51,520 Speaker 9: This place just gets nicer and nicer every time I 572 00:28:51,560 --> 00:28:52,000 Speaker 9: come back. 573 00:28:52,320 --> 00:28:53,240 Speaker 2: Oh you flatter us. 574 00:28:53,280 --> 00:28:53,560 Speaker 12: Well. 575 00:28:53,840 --> 00:28:55,880 Speaker 2: I want to talk about what the actual figures in 576 00:28:55,920 --> 00:28:59,040 Speaker 2: this poll were. Fifty eight percent of voters are more 577 00:28:59,080 --> 00:29:02,800 Speaker 2: satisfied with trus job as president than Biden's. Does that 578 00:29:02,840 --> 00:29:04,200 Speaker 2: track with what you're hearing too. 579 00:29:04,400 --> 00:29:07,640 Speaker 9: We've been doing focus groups every single week since the 580 00:29:07,680 --> 00:29:11,440 Speaker 9: election and the inauguration, and Donald Trump is keeping his 581 00:29:11,720 --> 00:29:15,200 Speaker 9: He's keeping his focus. He promised to deal with immigration. 582 00:29:15,320 --> 00:29:17,160 Speaker 9: That's one of the first things that he that he's 583 00:29:17,200 --> 00:29:21,880 Speaker 9: set forward, he promised to address Ukraine. Now I need 584 00:29:21,920 --> 00:29:24,520 Speaker 9: to point out one thing that's important, which is that 585 00:29:24,600 --> 00:29:27,760 Speaker 9: the language that he's using is not as effective as 586 00:29:27,800 --> 00:29:32,520 Speaker 9: it could be. But that aside the issues, the priorities, 587 00:29:32,520 --> 00:29:34,800 Speaker 9: what the public wants him to do, he seems to 588 00:29:34,880 --> 00:29:38,360 Speaker 9: be doing, and so he's being rewarded for in essence 589 00:29:38,440 --> 00:29:39,720 Speaker 9: keeping his campaign promises. 590 00:29:39,960 --> 00:29:42,040 Speaker 4: You add the Doge and things start to get a 591 00:29:42,080 --> 00:29:44,600 Speaker 4: little bit more complicated. This is red meat. They love 592 00:29:44,680 --> 00:29:47,680 Speaker 4: the chainsaw at Seapack for a lot of maga, but 593 00:29:48,000 --> 00:29:50,520 Speaker 4: even some Republicans are starting to worry. I don't know 594 00:29:50,560 --> 00:29:53,120 Speaker 4: what the Doge focus group is going to tell us, 595 00:29:53,520 --> 00:29:58,080 Speaker 4: Frank Lentz. But the Washington Post compiled comments from Republican 596 00:29:58,480 --> 00:30:01,760 Speaker 4: members of Congress, specifically Lisa Murkowski. No, granted, these are 597 00:30:01,760 --> 00:30:06,440 Speaker 4: not big Trumpers, Lisa Murkowski, John Curtis, Don Bacon, Brian Fitzpatrick. 598 00:30:06,480 --> 00:30:12,840 Speaker 4: They've used words such as embarrassing, cruel, absurd, extortion, and trauma. 599 00:30:13,000 --> 00:30:16,440 Speaker 9: Yes, issues in the language, not the goal, not the mission. 600 00:30:16,520 --> 00:30:17,560 Speaker 4: The voters. 601 00:30:17,840 --> 00:30:23,760 Speaker 9: Voters are tired of waste for Washington, spending, waste, fraud, abuse, mismanagement, 602 00:30:23,840 --> 00:30:28,600 Speaker 9: even corruption, and they applaud what he's doing the question 603 00:30:28,800 --> 00:30:32,240 Speaker 9: is is he doing it in a way that they appreciate. 604 00:30:32,960 --> 00:30:36,160 Speaker 9: There's some sadness when someone loses their job. There's pain 605 00:30:36,240 --> 00:30:40,040 Speaker 9: when a family suddenly finds that the breadwinners out of work, 606 00:30:40,640 --> 00:30:43,560 Speaker 9: and that doesn't seem to be communicated from this White House. 607 00:30:44,680 --> 00:30:47,800 Speaker 9: The public has an issue with his language, but not 608 00:30:47,880 --> 00:30:50,360 Speaker 9: with his strategy. And this is the same thing that 609 00:30:50,440 --> 00:30:53,720 Speaker 9: I hear up on Capitol Hill. If you're on the 610 00:30:53,760 --> 00:30:57,040 Speaker 9: side of the status quo, you're losing. The American people 611 00:30:57,080 --> 00:31:01,000 Speaker 9: have said enough with all caps and an ext point, enough, 612 00:31:01,720 --> 00:31:06,760 Speaker 9: but they haven't said enough about compassion, about empathy. And 613 00:31:06,800 --> 00:31:11,000 Speaker 9: if this administration tones it down and does exactly what 614 00:31:11,040 --> 00:31:13,600 Speaker 9: they say, says what they mean, means what they say, 615 00:31:14,280 --> 00:31:16,840 Speaker 9: but does so with empathy and compassion, they're going to 616 00:31:16,880 --> 00:31:18,600 Speaker 9: be even more popular than they are today. 617 00:31:19,080 --> 00:31:21,640 Speaker 2: Well, Frank, we just heard from the Press Secretary Caroline 618 00:31:21,640 --> 00:31:23,840 Speaker 2: love It that Elon Musk is going to be attending 619 00:31:23,960 --> 00:31:27,080 Speaker 2: the president's first cabinet meeting tomorrow. The rest of the 620 00:31:27,080 --> 00:31:29,280 Speaker 2: cabinet officials, presumably who will be in that room are 621 00:31:29,320 --> 00:31:31,680 Speaker 2: the ones who have been confirmed through the confirmed through 622 00:31:31,720 --> 00:31:35,080 Speaker 2: the advice and consent process in the US Senate. That 623 00:31:35,640 --> 00:31:38,880 Speaker 2: don't or have divested from conflicts of interest they may have, 624 00:31:39,120 --> 00:31:41,800 Speaker 2: those things are not true for Elon Musk. Does that 625 00:31:41,960 --> 00:31:43,480 Speaker 2: matter to the American voter. 626 00:31:43,720 --> 00:31:48,000 Speaker 9: Nobody cares. Nobody cares, and in fact, Musk is almost 627 00:31:48,000 --> 00:31:50,720 Speaker 9: a lightning rod. Musk is the best thing for Donald 628 00:31:50,760 --> 00:31:55,000 Speaker 9: Trump because he's out there with the chainsaw appealing to 629 00:31:55,040 --> 00:31:58,080 Speaker 9: the hardcore maga people. It allows Trump to do what 630 00:31:58,120 --> 00:32:01,800 Speaker 9: he's doing, and everyone angry at it is now angry 631 00:32:01,840 --> 00:32:05,960 Speaker 9: at Elon Musk. It's actually a brilliant strategy. People keep 632 00:32:06,000 --> 00:32:07,640 Speaker 9: saying that the two of them going to blow apart. 633 00:32:07,720 --> 00:32:11,840 Speaker 9: I don't see that. But Musk's language as well, and 634 00:32:11,880 --> 00:32:14,120 Speaker 9: I realized I sound like a broken record. But this 635 00:32:14,160 --> 00:32:17,480 Speaker 9: stuff matters in government. It matters in getting stuff done. 636 00:32:17,720 --> 00:32:20,320 Speaker 9: If you communicate in a way that the public starts 637 00:32:20,360 --> 00:32:23,920 Speaker 9: to resent you or reject you, it slows your momentum 638 00:32:24,240 --> 00:32:27,719 Speaker 9: and it undermines your ability to get things done. Trump 639 00:32:28,000 --> 00:32:31,160 Speaker 9: has focused on waste, and that is what the public 640 00:32:31,200 --> 00:32:35,080 Speaker 9: has waited for, frankly for forty years. But they don't 641 00:32:35,160 --> 00:32:38,040 Speaker 9: want to punish people just because you happen to get 642 00:32:38,080 --> 00:32:40,360 Speaker 9: a check from the government. They don't want to punish 643 00:32:40,360 --> 00:32:43,080 Speaker 9: you because you work for the government. And that's the 644 00:32:43,200 --> 00:32:45,959 Speaker 9: feeling that's happening. You saw all these town halls when 645 00:32:45,960 --> 00:32:49,800 Speaker 9: they're attacking the politicians, they're not really attacking the politicians. 646 00:32:50,080 --> 00:32:52,840 Speaker 9: They want to know, can we do this better? Use 647 00:32:52,880 --> 00:32:55,320 Speaker 9: a scalpel rather than a machine gun. 648 00:32:55,480 --> 00:32:59,360 Speaker 4: There have been comparisons to the town halls back in 649 00:32:59,520 --> 00:33:03,280 Speaker 4: Baraco Obama's first term that tipped over the whole idea 650 00:33:03,320 --> 00:33:07,520 Speaker 4: of obama Care and the Affordable Care Act. Is it 651 00:33:07,640 --> 00:33:11,560 Speaker 4: different this time or is that an apt comparison. 652 00:33:11,640 --> 00:33:14,680 Speaker 9: It's I think it's an apt comparison because it's performance. 653 00:33:15,320 --> 00:33:17,840 Speaker 9: People are going there not to learn, They're going there 654 00:33:17,880 --> 00:33:20,520 Speaker 9: not to listen. They're going there to shout, okay, and 655 00:33:20,600 --> 00:33:24,160 Speaker 9: so they want to be heard. But that was Trump's campaign, 656 00:33:24,320 --> 00:33:28,000 Speaker 9: was a campaign of shouting, and it gave him the election. 657 00:33:28,800 --> 00:33:32,600 Speaker 9: It's okay to shout if you get something done. The 658 00:33:32,680 --> 00:33:36,600 Speaker 9: most important word in Washington right now is results. And 659 00:33:36,680 --> 00:33:39,120 Speaker 9: if Trump gets results, he will get president and Trump 660 00:33:39,200 --> 00:33:42,760 Speaker 9: I'm sorry. If President Trump gets results, that will move 661 00:33:42,960 --> 00:33:45,720 Speaker 9: his agenda forward and he'll be able to go even 662 00:33:45,800 --> 00:33:47,760 Speaker 9: further on some of these other issues that it hasn't 663 00:33:47,760 --> 00:33:52,200 Speaker 9: gotten to. And the key to that is successful messaging 664 00:33:52,800 --> 00:33:56,440 Speaker 9: that the public hears and sees and feels the change. 665 00:33:57,040 --> 00:33:59,320 Speaker 9: They are hearing and seeing and feeling it, but they're 666 00:33:59,320 --> 00:34:01,600 Speaker 9: getting the negative as well, and that doesn't need to 667 00:34:01,640 --> 00:34:03,200 Speaker 9: be happening well. 668 00:34:03,320 --> 00:34:05,720 Speaker 2: So when we talk about the change the public is 669 00:34:05,760 --> 00:34:08,200 Speaker 2: looking for, what about what they're seeing at the grocery 670 00:34:08,200 --> 00:34:11,239 Speaker 2: store price of eggs, just inflationary dynamics in general. We 671 00:34:11,280 --> 00:34:14,360 Speaker 2: look at the consumer confidence data we got today, felt 672 00:34:14,440 --> 00:34:17,520 Speaker 2: by the most since August of twenty twenty one, on 673 00:34:17,719 --> 00:34:20,879 Speaker 2: concerns about the outlook. You saw inflation expectations pick up. 674 00:34:20,960 --> 00:34:22,880 Speaker 2: Is that going to come back to bite this administration 675 00:34:22,960 --> 00:34:23,560 Speaker 2: in short order? 676 00:34:23,640 --> 00:34:26,680 Speaker 9: It absolutely could, and the key for the president is 677 00:34:26,719 --> 00:34:29,680 Speaker 9: to lower expectations. There are some things that you can 678 00:34:29,719 --> 00:34:32,360 Speaker 9: do in thirty days, such as what he's doing with Ukraine. 679 00:34:33,040 --> 00:34:35,880 Speaker 9: Whether whether you agree with it or not, he is 680 00:34:36,440 --> 00:34:40,719 Speaker 9: moving towards bringing that to an end. Inflation doesn't rise 681 00:34:40,800 --> 00:34:44,840 Speaker 9: or fall in thirty days. It's a longer process, requires 682 00:34:45,280 --> 00:34:49,160 Speaker 9: supply chain fixes, requires lower energy prices. There's so much 683 00:34:49,200 --> 00:34:52,440 Speaker 9: involved in it, and from a political standpoint, Americans don't 684 00:34:52,440 --> 00:34:57,920 Speaker 9: pay attention to that. They simply pay attention to affordability, food, fuel, housing, 685 00:34:57,960 --> 00:35:02,640 Speaker 9: and healthcare the present be well served to lower expectations 686 00:35:02,920 --> 00:35:05,399 Speaker 9: because it's going to take six months or a year 687 00:35:05,680 --> 00:35:08,719 Speaker 9: for his policies to actually have an impact. And by 688 00:35:08,760 --> 00:35:11,080 Speaker 9: saying that he's going to bring it down now, you 689 00:35:11,160 --> 00:35:13,919 Speaker 9: can't make you shouldn't make that promise, and that could 690 00:35:14,000 --> 00:35:15,920 Speaker 9: hurt him as well. You know, it's weird because I'm 691 00:35:15,920 --> 00:35:20,680 Speaker 9: listening to what I'm saying here. As a president, he's 692 00:35:20,719 --> 00:35:25,840 Speaker 9: been the most significant since FDR. He's caused more change, 693 00:35:25,960 --> 00:35:31,120 Speaker 9: more agitation than any president since Andrew Jackson. And it's 694 00:35:31,200 --> 00:35:37,080 Speaker 9: remarkable how people have already taken sides. But the public 695 00:35:37,200 --> 00:35:42,080 Speaker 9: is supporting what he's doing. The concern is how he's 696 00:35:42,120 --> 00:35:45,280 Speaker 9: doing it, and that's something that maybe he'll get the message, 697 00:35:45,320 --> 00:35:49,120 Speaker 9: maybe he'll see this video. I think he wants to 698 00:35:49,120 --> 00:35:51,680 Speaker 9: do it his way. I can hear Frank Sinatra playing 699 00:35:51,680 --> 00:35:55,000 Speaker 9: in the background, But in the end, how he does 700 00:35:55,040 --> 00:35:57,280 Speaker 9: it determines his success or his failure. 701 00:35:57,320 --> 00:35:59,640 Speaker 4: You could hear Steve Bannon talking in the background soon 702 00:35:59,680 --> 00:36:02,759 Speaker 4: not even about Elon, but about flooding the zone. You're 703 00:36:02,760 --> 00:36:06,120 Speaker 4: a communications expert, this is essentially what we're talking about. 704 00:36:06,440 --> 00:36:08,440 Speaker 4: Can he keep up this clip beyond the first one, 705 00:36:08,520 --> 00:36:10,520 Speaker 4: hundred days. Is that even a strategy or is it 706 00:36:10,560 --> 00:36:13,200 Speaker 4: to get them on their heels at the beginning of 707 00:36:13,239 --> 00:36:15,200 Speaker 4: the term. So you can get done as much as 708 00:36:15,200 --> 00:36:16,400 Speaker 4: you can in a closed window. 709 00:36:16,480 --> 00:36:20,040 Speaker 9: So again, I do this often to compliment both of you, 710 00:36:20,840 --> 00:36:23,440 Speaker 9: because you're saying exactly what the public is thinking. Can 711 00:36:23,520 --> 00:36:26,600 Speaker 9: he keep it up? He answers, Yes, he absolutely can. 712 00:36:27,200 --> 00:36:28,919 Speaker 9: But when you do that, when you flood the zone, 713 00:36:28,960 --> 00:36:31,480 Speaker 9: you make mistakes. When you flood the zone. There's a 714 00:36:31,480 --> 00:36:34,440 Speaker 9: positive and a negative to it. And the question for 715 00:36:34,520 --> 00:36:39,560 Speaker 9: the Trump administration does he seize every opportunity and minimize 716 00:36:39,680 --> 00:36:42,640 Speaker 9: the risks of failure? At this point, he looks like 717 00:36:42,719 --> 00:36:48,480 Speaker 9: it's maximum efforts with maximum challenge to that agenda. He's 718 00:36:48,480 --> 00:36:51,120 Speaker 9: going to do it. So the question is can he 719 00:36:51,239 --> 00:36:55,000 Speaker 9: prepare himself? And there are people around him to say 720 00:36:55,400 --> 00:36:58,200 Speaker 9: that one you shouldn't do that, one you should pull 721 00:36:58,239 --> 00:37:02,160 Speaker 9: back on. I don't think so. But that's the challenge 722 00:37:02,160 --> 00:37:03,000 Speaker 9: for this administration. 723 00:37:03,239 --> 00:37:05,520 Speaker 2: Well, and there's also a question too here, Frank about 724 00:37:05,520 --> 00:37:08,160 Speaker 2: how much approval of what Trump is doing even matters. 725 00:37:08,200 --> 00:37:10,439 Speaker 2: When he entered a lame duck. He can't, at least 726 00:37:10,560 --> 00:37:12,880 Speaker 2: the way the laws are written now, run for a 727 00:37:12,920 --> 00:37:15,640 Speaker 2: third term in office. That same thing is not true 728 00:37:15,680 --> 00:37:18,319 Speaker 2: for a number of people on Capitol Hill who are 729 00:37:18,320 --> 00:37:20,879 Speaker 2: trying to get re elected next year. When you look 730 00:37:20,920 --> 00:37:24,440 Speaker 2: at the midterms, is the pictures? Is the road ahead 731 00:37:24,480 --> 00:37:26,440 Speaker 2: as easy for some of these lawmakers who are going 732 00:37:26,480 --> 00:37:29,040 Speaker 2: to try to seek reelection because of the policies of 733 00:37:29,080 --> 00:37:29,719 Speaker 2: this administration. 734 00:37:29,800 --> 00:37:32,120 Speaker 9: So promise me you won't get angry with this response. 735 00:37:32,680 --> 00:37:37,040 Speaker 9: Never there, that's not true. There's somethings more important than elections. 736 00:37:37,640 --> 00:37:40,239 Speaker 9: This is a very critical time for this country. There 737 00:37:40,239 --> 00:37:43,480 Speaker 9: are serious divides, there's serious anger, there's a loss of 738 00:37:43,520 --> 00:37:46,400 Speaker 9: faith and trust in the future. There's a belief that 739 00:37:46,440 --> 00:37:49,879 Speaker 9: our institutions are failing us. That whether or not they 740 00:37:49,880 --> 00:37:52,560 Speaker 9: get re elected is not the question at this moment. 741 00:37:52,560 --> 00:37:55,480 Speaker 9: It's whether or not we can put our country back together, 742 00:37:56,400 --> 00:37:59,440 Speaker 9: whether we can take this shattered puzzle that is incredibly 743 00:37:59,480 --> 00:38:02,440 Speaker 9: beautiful and it's united, but it looks pretty ugly as 744 00:38:02,440 --> 00:38:06,799 Speaker 9: pieces on the table. I'm hoping that this president keeps 745 00:38:06,840 --> 00:38:11,680 Speaker 9: his promises, continues pushing forward, adopts the language so that 746 00:38:11,760 --> 00:38:14,960 Speaker 9: the public can really hear and see what's happening, and 747 00:38:15,000 --> 00:38:18,040 Speaker 9: it has a little bit of empathy, because that's a 748 00:38:18,080 --> 00:38:22,160 Speaker 9: successful democracy, when your voice is heard, when it's paid 749 00:38:22,200 --> 00:38:25,240 Speaker 9: attention to, and you can actually see the changes happening. 750 00:38:25,800 --> 00:38:28,880 Speaker 9: Some of that in the first thirty five days is happening, 751 00:38:29,680 --> 00:38:34,879 Speaker 9: but they're danger there's threats that that is also and 752 00:38:34,920 --> 00:38:38,319 Speaker 9: that messaging. I would just love a little bit of 753 00:38:38,360 --> 00:38:42,439 Speaker 9: a Lincoln or a Jefferson or a Washington to kind 754 00:38:42,440 --> 00:38:45,840 Speaker 9: of get or at Churchill to get into this communication 755 00:38:46,520 --> 00:38:48,960 Speaker 9: because it's not just about the details of today or 756 00:38:49,000 --> 00:38:52,160 Speaker 9: how they impact the election tomorrow. It's what happens for 757 00:38:52,239 --> 00:38:55,919 Speaker 9: your children and your grandchildren and the generations to come. 758 00:38:56,400 --> 00:38:58,040 Speaker 4: Let us know what they call you and you have 759 00:38:58,080 --> 00:39:01,160 Speaker 4: that conversation at the White House Frank Luntz fl What 760 00:39:01,239 --> 00:39:03,360 Speaker 4: a treat to have Frank Lunz in studio. Thanks for 761 00:39:03,400 --> 00:39:05,160 Speaker 4: coming in. It's great to see you. Thanks as always 762 00:39:05,160 --> 00:39:13,560 Speaker 4: here on the fastest show in politics. Thanks for listening 763 00:39:13,560 --> 00:39:16,840 Speaker 4: to the Balance of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe 764 00:39:16,920 --> 00:39:19,600 Speaker 4: if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, or wherever you 765 00:39:19,680 --> 00:39:22,439 Speaker 4: get your podcasts, and you can find us live every 766 00:39:22,440 --> 00:39:26,680 Speaker 4: weekday from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern at Bloomberg dot com.