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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast podcast.

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Speaker 2: If you are even remotely a savage, you'll run these

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Speaker 2: people over for a second.

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Speaker 3: Hello, Welcome the Action Network podcast UFC Betting Preview. I'm

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Speaker 3: Sean Zarilla, joined today by Billy Word to help you

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Speaker 3: break down another UFC card going down this Saturday at

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Speaker 3: the Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. And you'd like to

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Speaker 3: tell some of the bets so we discussed on today's show.

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Speaker 3: Make sure to find the quick slip links in the

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Speaker 3: podcast and the video description, or go to Action org

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Speaker 3: dot com slash bet now Main event, five round fight

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Speaker 3: in the featherweight division, Leron Murphy minus three to ten

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Speaker 3: Josh Emmett plus two to sixty fight about minus one

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Speaker 3: fifty to go to a decision plus one twenty to

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Speaker 3: end insight the distance. Emm at forty years old, coming

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Speaker 3: off of the layoffs since December of twenty twenty three

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Speaker 3: when he knocked out Bryce Mitchell. Bet him to knock

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Speaker 3: out Bryce Mitchell in that fight.

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Speaker 2: Love that knockout.

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Speaker 3: Unfortunately, that knockout made Bryce Mitchell start a podcast, so

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Speaker 3: worst result probably a net negative outcome from that. Josh MKAO. However,

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Speaker 3: Emmett coming back off of that Ko look good in that.

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Speaker 2: Fight, but very short.

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Speaker 3: Did go five rounds with the Elia to Ward before

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Speaker 3: that got finished by Yarry Rodriguez and another five round fight.

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Speaker 3: So we've seen him at be super durable, we've seen

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Speaker 3: him struggle, you know, with body kicks, ended up getting submitted.

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Speaker 3: And Lee Roun Murphy younger man six years younger. He

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Speaker 3: is the better athlete. He's going to be faster, but

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Speaker 3: Emmett carries very significant power. He's basically the Francis and

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Speaker 3: Ganu of the featherweight division.

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Speaker 2: Just in terms of.

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Speaker 3: Knockout right, knockdown rate, knockout rate, Emittt is an outlier

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Speaker 3: relative to the vision hits super hard and at forty

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Speaker 3: years old, that power is not going to go away.

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Speaker 2: Power typically stays in pes with age.

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Speaker 3: Speed obviously decreases Emmet's durability coming off the long layoff

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Speaker 3: all significant concerns. Billy couldn't really find that many interesting

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Speaker 3: angles in terms of betting this fight. I might be

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Speaker 3: interested in Emmett's money line if it floats up a

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Speaker 3: little bit closer to plus three hundred, but I basically

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Speaker 3: projected the money line the total right in line with

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Speaker 3: the market. I made Emmett plus four ninety five to

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Speaker 3: win by knockouts the one bet I show value on.

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Speaker 3: It's the one bet we are kind of aligned on

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Speaker 3: in this fight as being the value bet Emmitt by

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Speaker 3: KO at five to one. I'm also interested in Emmett

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Speaker 3: finish only at plus one fifty five. Not quite as

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Speaker 3: much value in my opinion on that prop. But give

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Speaker 3: me your breakdown of this fight, why you landed on

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Speaker 3: Emmett by KO, and any other ways you're considering playing it.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm pretty much with you.

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Speaker 1: I said even in the luck ratings that the money

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Speaker 1: line is about right, kind of what I arrived at was.

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Speaker 1: I don't think Josh Emmett has another way to win

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Speaker 1: this fight. So if we think the money line is

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Speaker 1: about right and the majority of his win condition is

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Speaker 1: a knockout, then those lines should be closer. You know,

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Speaker 1: you're never gonna make the knockout fifty cents, you know,

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Speaker 1: off the money line or whatever, but they should be

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Speaker 1: closer than they are. I think if this weren't a

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Speaker 1: main event, I probably wouldn't have looked that hard into it.

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Speaker 1: I don't think it's like a great value by any stretch,

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Speaker 1: but given that it's the main event, and we like

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Speaker 1: to give picks for that. I do think that's the

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Speaker 1: best option. You kind of summed it up with the power,

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Speaker 1: you know methods. The only other thing is Laron Murphy

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Speaker 1: has been.

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Speaker 4: Dropped a couple times.

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Speaker 1: He got dropped by Zubayira Tukugolf in his UFC debut

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Speaker 1: and lost a split decision, and then he was dropped

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Speaker 1: by Dan Egay in his last fight, and a fight

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Speaker 1: you could maybe argue ega should have won, Like I

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Speaker 1: think if we graded that fight as a whole rather

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Speaker 1: than round by round, there'd be a compelling case for Egay.

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Speaker 1: That is, of course, not how we do it. So

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Speaker 1: Laron Murphy's one biggest weakness also happens to be Josh

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Speaker 1: Emmitt's clear strength. So you know, bet on that. I

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Speaker 1: do really like the finish only odds on Emmett. I

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Speaker 1: would have made him a favorite in the finish only market.

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Speaker 1: Murphy's only finishes are against much lower level competition. He

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Speaker 1: doesn't press that hard for a finish. He just wins fights,

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Speaker 1: and there's nothing wrong with that, but when we're betting it,

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Speaker 1: I was surprised that Josh Emmett was an underdog on

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Speaker 1: the finish only, so that would makes sense as well.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, as you mentioned the knockdowns for Lurun Murphy twice

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Speaker 3: in his career, now Emmett, you know outlier knockdown rate.

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Speaker 3: The one thing that I could see happening where Emmett

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Speaker 3: does win a decision is hurts Murphy early and then

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Speaker 3: Murphy kind of gets scared into a low volume fight.

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Speaker 3: That Emma Cator fight. I think back to a lot,

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Speaker 3: especially in the Apex. Emmit carries the significant power that

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Speaker 3: even when Cater is keeping the guard high and Emmett

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Speaker 3: was hitting his gloves, the impact of those punches, like

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Speaker 3: the sound of those punches, I think play really well

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Speaker 3: in the Apex where in a bigger arena with the crowd,

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Speaker 3: et cetera, like you're not going to hear it as much.

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Speaker 3: So I actually do you think Emmett's power could kind

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Speaker 3: of cause a weird dynamic where Murphy presses his volume

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Speaker 3: a little bit, you know, creates more of an even

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Speaker 3: striking fight where Emmitt's going to be landing the bigger

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Speaker 3: shots or at least landing the louder sounding shots in

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Speaker 3: the Apex. So I could see Emmett, you know, winning

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Speaker 3: a tight decision, but in terms of like who's gonna

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Speaker 3: win a dominant decision, yeah, it's clearly Murphy. You know,

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Speaker 3: Emmett's not going to run away with this fight on

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Speaker 3: the scorecards. If Emmett wins clear, it's going to be

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Speaker 3: via KO. If Murphy wins clear, it could be via

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Speaker 3: wide decision, you know, just the speed advantage or out

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Speaker 3: grappling Emmitt. And I do think that's that maybe the

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Speaker 3: advantage that Murphy has that people don't think about Emmett

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Speaker 3: comes from a wrestling background. Maybe Murphy English guy not

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Speaker 3: able to take him down, Murphy showing to prove grappling.

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Speaker 3: And I just think given the age angle, you know,

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Speaker 3: the declining athleticism, like that could be where Murphy kind

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Speaker 3: of leans on him a little bit in this fight

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Speaker 3: and pulls away with control time, et cetera. We've seen

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Speaker 3: him out grapple other guys in recent fights, but that's

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Speaker 3: been more so out of necessity too, you know, not

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Speaker 3: wanting to strike, not wanting to stay in danger at

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Speaker 3: range against since in Barbosa, or against if he's trying

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Speaker 3: to if he gets hurt by Josh Emmett, is he

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Speaker 3: gonna be able to grapple Emmott and get out of

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Speaker 3: trouble like that.

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Speaker 2: That remains to be seen.

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Speaker 3: So the power dynamic of Emmett, I think plays in

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Speaker 3: several aspects, not only in terms of getting the knockout,

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Speaker 3: but also in terms of like changing the way that

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Speaker 3: l'erom Murphy is actually an approach him Billy just before

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Speaker 3: we move off of the main event. Any live angles

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Speaker 3: anything you're thinking about from that perspective, Murphy shown good cardio.

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Speaker 3: Em It's shown really good durability and cardio across five rounds.

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Speaker 3: But his power does carry really well. So you know,

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Speaker 3: if he hurts Murphy early, you get a decent number

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Speaker 3: closer to pick him on Murphy after round one, Like

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Speaker 3: any sort of live angles you're considering attacking here.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, that's the problem in theory.

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Speaker 1: When you think one guy's biggest win condition is a knockout,

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Speaker 1: typically the other fighter is a live value, but somehow

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Speaker 1: its knockouts have been knockouts, or knockdowns have been late

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Speaker 1: or towards the end of the fight, So probably not.

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Speaker 1: I could I guess if Emmett gets a knock down

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Speaker 1: in the first couple of rounds and Murphy line blows up.

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Speaker 1: That would probably be the only case where like if

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Speaker 1: we get Loan Murphy at plus money after round two

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Speaker 1: because he got dropped, but it's probably a one to

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Speaker 1: one fight. Judges hate ten eight rounds, even though they

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Speaker 1: should give more of them. I could see that case,

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Speaker 1: but that's like a pretty specific scenario. So I'm not

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Speaker 1: going in there, you know, with all my tabs open,

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Speaker 1: ready to jump on something right away.

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Speaker 2: Fair enough, move on.

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Speaker 3: Other fight of the night Joe Anderson Burrito around minus

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Speaker 3: two twenty five at best. Available numbers against Pat Sabatini

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Speaker 3: currently as high as plus two hundred. This fight is

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Speaker 3: minus two forty or higher to end inside the distance

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Speaker 3: plus one fifty at best, or plus one fifty at

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Speaker 3: worst plus one ninety five at best to go to

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Speaker 3: a decision. I'm going to wait for the Sabatini money

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Speaker 3: line to climb up a little bit more or just

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Speaker 3: target him live because Brito is the much better striker,

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Speaker 3: Sabatini the better grappler. Fairly binary fight. I do think

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Speaker 3: if Sabatini doesn't die in the first couple of striking exchanges,

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Speaker 3: he does take over this fight with grappling with Cardio

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Speaker 3: over the final twelve and a half ten minutes of

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Speaker 3: the fight, So waiting for Sabatini better number maybe closer

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Speaker 3: to plus twenty two twenty five plus two fifty will

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Speaker 3: wait for fight day and then Sabatini live after round one.

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Speaker 3: How I'm targeting this one, Billy, You're kind of thinking

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Speaker 3: along similar lines with Sabatini's money line, but you also

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Speaker 3: like the under one and a half rounds in this matchup.

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Speaker 3: As I said, a pretty binary fight. Go ahead and

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Speaker 3: give your breakdown.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean similar to what you said. If Sabotini

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Speaker 1: doesn't die, he should take over. I just don't think

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Speaker 1: he'll need more than seven and a half minutes to

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Speaker 1: find a submission or a win if he can survive

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Speaker 1: the opening flurry. I just published my breakdown for this

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Speaker 1: and I said this there. But it's a very weird

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Speaker 1: fight where either guy you kind of need them to

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Speaker 1: break their usual tendency to have a shot at winning.

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Speaker 1: What I mean by that is Sabotini kind of tends

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Speaker 1: to come out cold, and people that blits him right

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Speaker 1: off the opening bell has been his only two losses

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Speaker 1: in the UFC. Brito is a much better striker, but

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Speaker 1: he like inexplicably grapples himself into trouble, and both of

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Speaker 1: his losses in the UFC debatable though they were. What

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Speaker 1: happened is Brido initiated some grappling but then got controlled

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Speaker 1: on the ground for large stretches. Happened in his last

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Speaker 1: fight against William Gome in round one Brito, very strong guy,

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Speaker 1: just kind of threw go me down and then got

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Speaker 1: over excited, jumped on his back and spent the whole

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Speaker 1: round under William Gome. After that, if you do that

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Speaker 1: against Pat Sabatina, you're getting submitted, like You're not just

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Speaker 1: going to get controlled on the ground by a French

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Speaker 1: kickboxer as he did in his last fight. So that

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Speaker 1: is my logic on the under. I had somebody in

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Speaker 1: the discord asked me about Sabatini's takedown line of over

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Speaker 1: one and a half. I just don't see a scenario

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Speaker 1: where he gets to I should phrase this differently the

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Speaker 1: downside risk, because he just gets sparked right away and

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Speaker 1: we're getting a better price on the under. So I

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Speaker 1: prefer I think if it gets two takedowns, they're probably

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Speaker 1: in the first two rounds and he probably finds a

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Speaker 1: finish it there at some point, and also a lot

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Speaker 1: of times Brito's the one initiating the grappling, so you

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Speaker 1: never know how the official scorekeepers are going to treat that.

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Speaker 1: Like there was an argument that Gomi took Brito down

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Speaker 1: in that exchange, it was officially scored as a reversal.

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Speaker 1: So and I I'd like that takedown prop in a vacuum.

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Speaker 1: But when the under one and a half is a

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Speaker 1: better price, I like that. And yeah, Sabatini, live makes

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Speaker 1: a ton of sense, Sabotini. If the price gets any bigger,

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Speaker 1: I think I trust him to not get knocked out

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Speaker 1: more than I trust Brito to not instinctively grapple. But

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Speaker 1: that's we're splitting hairs here, So I don't love the

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Speaker 1: money line at the current price. If it gets any bigger,

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Speaker 1: I'm with you on that. But live is probably the

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Speaker 1: sharpest way to play.

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Speaker 3: Seems like a great fight for dfs. What's your relative

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Speaker 3: weight to either guy in DFS like tournaments this week

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Speaker 3: or lineups in general. Are you using one hundred percent

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Speaker 3: of this fight like you're using one of the other

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Speaker 3: and one hundred percent of lineups?

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Speaker 2: And also, what's your relative weight on the two fighters.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I'll be close to one hundred percent on this fight.

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Speaker 1: I haven't quite you know, built out all my lineups

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Speaker 1: yet more towards Sabotini just because both his ownership and

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Speaker 1: his salary are much lower. So like I think, when

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Speaker 1: we get these binary fights like that, even if you

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Speaker 1: don't know anything about the fighters, if you kind of

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Speaker 1: just blindly lean towards the underdog with grappling upside, that's

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Speaker 1: going to work out more often than not. But yeah,

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Speaker 1: it's by far the fight on the card likeliest to

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Speaker 1: end inside the distance. It's reasonably close. I mean, you know,

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Speaker 1: Brito somewhat heavy favorite, but the other fights in this

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Speaker 1: range have a much heavier favorite.

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Speaker 4: So pretty clear. Like awesome DFS fight.

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Speaker 1: I have that as my swing fight in the DFS

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Speaker 1: breakdown that'll be coming out shortly as well.

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Speaker 4: Move on.

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Speaker 3: Are our favorite underdogs on this card. There's three different

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Speaker 3: fights that I want to talk about in this section,

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Speaker 3: first being Brad Taveraz against Gerald Meershart OLBI fight, both

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Speaker 3: thirty seven years old. Tavera is typically good takedown defense

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Speaker 3: and cardio, which is how Gerald Meershart beats people out

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Speaker 3: grappling them, particularly in the third round. However, I don't

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Speaker 3: think Gerald Miershart is going to be uncompetitive in the

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Speaker 3: striking here, and he does retain all of the grappling upside.

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Speaker 2: I don't think you can be super wrong.

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Speaker 3: Playing Meershart at plus one to eighty five on the

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Speaker 3: money line and goes to the decision at about minus

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Speaker 3: one fifty and having the potential to cash Meershart decision

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Speaker 3: or essentially breaking even on a Brad Tavera's decision. Taveris

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Speaker 3: doesn't carry a ton of power. He's much more of

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Speaker 3: a point fighter, but we've actually seen his durability declining

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Speaker 3: in recent fights. Got knocked out two fights back by RoboCop,

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Speaker 3: lost a pretty one sided decision against the Iron Turtle,

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Speaker 3: where I think more people expected Taveres to be competitive

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Speaker 3: in that matchup. So I think his overall athleticism effectiveness

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Speaker 3: declining in his later years, where GM three still beating

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Speaker 3: guys like Edam and schabazing competitive with Raniar to Ritter

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Speaker 3: competitive split decision loss again. Zandia Petrowski, I still think

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Speaker 3: GM three has like the skills he's had for the

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Speaker 3: past few years. His athleticism to me, not great, but

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Speaker 3: clearly like not declining. Yet either I think the cardio

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Speaker 3: maybe a little bit in favor of Ara's, but GM

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Speaker 3: three like has the heart to keep fighting all the

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Speaker 3: way to the final bell, so aside from a GM

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Speaker 3: three submission or just getting knocked out randomly by Brad Taveras,

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Speaker 3: which I would put much lower than the divisional average here,

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Speaker 3: I like this fight to go over, to go to

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Speaker 3: a decision. I like GM three too win either on

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Speaker 3: the money line or by decision. Billy, any thoughts on

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Speaker 3: that fight, and then we'll jump to your two underdogs.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, absolutely wild that GM three is actually three days

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Speaker 1: younger than Brad Tavares, because GM three has fought like

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Speaker 1: he's forty five the entire time he's been in the UFC.

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Speaker 1: But to your point, like, there's less of a decline

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Speaker 1: when you don't rely on athleticism to begin with, like

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Speaker 1: you can't go down from zero. Not that he's a

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Speaker 1: zero athletically, but he just doesn't use it. He uses

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Speaker 1: this technique in his grappling skills. So yeah, I like that.

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Speaker 1: I've been leaning towards GM three. I've just been torn

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Speaker 1: on how to play it, whether we take the subprop.

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Speaker 1: I do have a question for you about Gerald Mierschard.

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Speaker 1: Eleven of his twelve UFC wins are by submission. He

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Speaker 1: got a body kick knockout like twelve years ago or

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Speaker 1: something crazy, a really long time ago. You think he

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Speaker 1: regrets it now looking back that he didn't find a

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Speaker 1: way to get a submission in that fight and keep

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Speaker 1: it perfect.

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Speaker 3: You know, he he does have the record now for submissions, right,

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Speaker 3: So now that he has the record, like, not a

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Speaker 3: big deal. You almost want to have the knockout on

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Speaker 3: the record too. But I'm glad you brought off the bodykick.

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Speaker 3: That's that's the main weapon for him in the fight

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Speaker 3: on the feed here against against Brad. Brad's gonna be

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Speaker 3: trying to box him up. Gerald's going to be trying

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Speaker 3: to stay a little bit further away and kick him

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Speaker 3: to the liver with the left body kick. So yeah,

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Speaker 3: main weapon for GM three in this fight. And I

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Speaker 3: think you'll be more competitive on the feet than the

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Speaker 3: line suggests with the grappling upside to boot pot.

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Speaker 2: No.

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Speaker 3: I actually, considering he has the submission record, I'd say

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Speaker 3: it's less likely that he regrets also having a knockout

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Speaker 3: on the record. You who wouldn't want to have a

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Speaker 3: knockout Wine of the UFC. You don't want to say

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Speaker 3: you fought thirty plus times at the UFC and didn't

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Speaker 3: knock anybody out right.

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Speaker 2: That would be embarrassing.

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Speaker 1: So but at the same time, it'd be cool to

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Speaker 1: be like, every whin I have is a submission, like

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Speaker 1: you're getting submitted when you meet me GM three, So

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Speaker 1: I don't know. I think personally I would regret it,

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Speaker 1: but I can see I can see your case as well.

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Speaker 4: We'll have to ask him when he's done fighting and

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Speaker 4: can go on gambling theme podcast.

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Speaker 3: I'd love to get GM three on here. Cash a

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Speaker 3: number of big plus money tickets for US. I took

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Speaker 3: him at I think five to one against Murdov. That

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Speaker 3: was one of my favorite bets of cash. Jim thru

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Speaker 3: been good to the I want to say the Payoff

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Speaker 3: Pitch podcast to the Action Network podcast, the UFC betting preview.

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Speaker 3: Let's move on to another fight, and Billy going to

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Speaker 3: continue to give out underdogs here, but I just want

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Speaker 3: to go fight by fight here so that we're breaking

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Speaker 3: it up nice and even lean and you know exactly

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Speaker 3: which fights we're talking about. Shang Ho Lee about minus

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Speaker 3: one thirty five against Cortavius Romeus. This was in your

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Speaker 3: luck ratings earlier in the week. You bet Romeo said

333
00:15:24,600 --> 00:15:27,520
Speaker 3: about plus one forty. It's come into plus one fifteen.

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Speaker 3: I've about on this fight that I really like. I'm

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Speaker 3: also going to be targeting Lee live after round one, Billy,

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00:15:33,120 --> 00:15:35,240
Speaker 3: you have plus one forty on Romeas going into the fight.

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Speaker 3: Is Lee a live bet that you're interested in making?

338
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Speaker 3: And then at this point, this price point, would you

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Speaker 3: still play Romeas.

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Speaker 1: I would definitely still play Romeus at this price point.

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Speaker 1: I just think he should be the favorite. Basically, Lee

342
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Speaker 1: is coming in off the Road to the UFC series.

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Speaker 1: He is technically want to know in the UFC, but

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Speaker 1: that was the tournament championship of Road to the UFC,

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Speaker 1: So it's kind of like the Ultimate Fighter where it's

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Speaker 1: it's under the UFC banner officially in that last fight,

347
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Speaker 1: but you haven't been released into the pool of UFC

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Speaker 1: fighters yet. You're only fighting other people from that tournament,

349
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Speaker 1: and the people coming out of that tournament have not

350
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Speaker 1: done particularly well in recent fights. Romeias, coming in off

351
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Speaker 1: the Contender series, lost his debut proper, but wasn't like

352
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Speaker 1: smash or anything like. He was fine he got to

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Speaker 1: do some stuff. Tiny bantamweight, he is five foot four.

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Speaker 1: Reminds me of Torres Fenny, also on this card, who

355
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Speaker 1: is a tiny middleweight with a similar build. But Romeas

356
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Speaker 1: can get takedowns, and Lee has gotten taken down a

357
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Speaker 1: lot across his fights in the road to the UFC,

358
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Speaker 1: especially in the APEX. I think that helps because it

359
00:16:37,480 --> 00:16:41,800
Speaker 1: neutralizes some of that height disadvantage, and it's just a

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Speaker 1: higher quality of competition.

361
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Speaker 4: That he's done it again.

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Speaker 1: So I would bet Romeus as long as he has

363
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Speaker 1: a plus in front of his name. I can see

364
00:16:49,240 --> 00:16:51,080
Speaker 1: the case for the live bet on Lee. I think

365
00:16:51,120 --> 00:16:53,720
Speaker 1: you would want to see Romeus have to attempt a

366
00:16:53,760 --> 00:16:56,120
Speaker 1: ton of takedowns before he gets one to then want

367
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Speaker 1: to come live on the other side, because failing to

368
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Speaker 1: take someone down is the most taxing to fight. Successfully

369
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Speaker 1: taking someone down and making them carry your weight not

370
00:17:04,359 --> 00:17:06,879
Speaker 1: nearly as bad. So that's kind of a we have

371
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Speaker 1: to see how this one's going. And this is pretty

372
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Speaker 1: early on the Oh no, this is for some reason

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Speaker 1: right before the comain event.

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Speaker 4: That's interesting. Never mind, I was gonna say this is

375
00:17:14,480 --> 00:17:16,320
Speaker 4: early on the card. It's not. He'll probably be tuned

376
00:17:16,359 --> 00:17:16,960
Speaker 4: in at this point.

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Speaker 1: So, yeah, there's a live betting opportunity there, I guess,

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Speaker 1: but I'm not coming into a planning.

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Speaker 4: I'm doing that. I need it to work out a

380
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Speaker 4: certain way.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, speaks to the quality of the card when you go, oh,

382
00:17:27,200 --> 00:17:30,439
Speaker 3: Courtavius Romius with one UFC fight which was lost as

383
00:17:30,480 --> 00:17:33,159
Speaker 3: a favorite is fighting in the future bout on the

384
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Speaker 3: main card. Oh my, I like this fight to go

385
00:17:35,760 --> 00:17:38,119
Speaker 3: to a decision. I projected a closer to minus two hundred,

386
00:17:38,200 --> 00:17:41,320
Speaker 3: it's currently minus one fifty. I think these two mostly

387
00:17:41,359 --> 00:17:44,040
Speaker 3: just scramble with each other on the map for fifteen minutes.

388
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Speaker 2: The reason why I like the.

389
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Speaker 3: Chang Ho Lee live bet I actually like his get

390
00:17:49,160 --> 00:17:50,800
Speaker 3: up game, and I do think he's going to make

391
00:17:50,880 --> 00:17:54,080
Speaker 3: Romeus attempt a high number of takedowns, and every time

392
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Speaker 3: he forces Romius to attempt another takedown, I do think

393
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Speaker 3: he's going to get a little bit more tired. The

394
00:17:59,080 --> 00:18:01,439
Speaker 3: resistance may pay up up a little bit, and I

395
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Speaker 3: do you think eventually Chang Ho ends up being the

396
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Speaker 3: guy who's on top in the scrambles by the end

397
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Speaker 3: of the fight. So Cardio advantage for me for chang

398
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Speaker 3: O Lee over the second half of this matchup. I

399
00:18:09,800 --> 00:18:12,119
Speaker 3: think Romeus is the better athlete, more powerful, likely are

400
00:18:12,160 --> 00:18:14,879
Speaker 3: to finish it early, but as they start scrambling, as

401
00:18:14,920 --> 00:18:17,919
Speaker 3: they start getting tied up for longer stretches, I like

402
00:18:18,160 --> 00:18:20,439
Speaker 3: need to come out on top of the scramble. So

403
00:18:20,520 --> 00:18:23,720
Speaker 3: Lee live after round one, probably the best price on him.

404
00:18:23,760 --> 00:18:26,560
Speaker 3: Not super interested in taking a pre fight stab, even

405
00:18:26,560 --> 00:18:29,720
Speaker 3: though I do show value just because Romus is incredibly athletic,

406
00:18:29,760 --> 00:18:32,439
Speaker 3: his first round should be his best round. But I

407
00:18:32,480 --> 00:18:36,360
Speaker 3: bet Gaston Bolanos against romeas I beg Bolanios is an underdog.

408
00:18:37,000 --> 00:18:39,080
Speaker 3: I'm not super high on Romeus in general. I think

409
00:18:39,080 --> 00:18:41,480
Speaker 3: he's very raw as a fighter. I don't really think

410
00:18:41,480 --> 00:18:45,040
Speaker 3: he has like a complete game in general, just a

411
00:18:45,160 --> 00:18:48,200
Speaker 3: very good athlete and very powerful. But once that athleticism

412
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Speaker 3: starts to decline, I do think his fights tend to

413
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Speaker 3: become a lot closer.

414
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Speaker 2: So we'll see if Lee can survive that opening for him.

415
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Speaker 3: If he does, I like this to go to a decision,

416
00:18:55,760 --> 00:18:58,399
Speaker 3: as I said, around minus two hundred and get minus

417
00:18:58,400 --> 00:19:02,200
Speaker 3: one fifty. Currently another underdog you like on this card, Billy,

418
00:19:02,200 --> 00:19:04,280
Speaker 3: and I like this guy. By decision, you're taking a

419
00:19:04,320 --> 00:19:06,840
Speaker 3: different prop stab on him, which we'll get to after

420
00:19:06,880 --> 00:19:09,680
Speaker 3: your breakdown, but Victor Henry about minus two to five

421
00:19:09,720 --> 00:19:12,960
Speaker 3: against Pedro fal Cow plus one to eighty five. This

422
00:19:13,000 --> 00:19:16,720
Speaker 3: fight is about minus two forty to go to a decision. Falcal,

423
00:19:16,800 --> 00:19:20,520
Speaker 3: though five years younger, and in a fight that's likely GTD,

424
00:19:20,920 --> 00:19:22,600
Speaker 3: may have the better energy in the third round. I

425
00:19:22,600 --> 00:19:26,119
Speaker 3: think Victor Henry's two more recent performances, we've kind of

426
00:19:26,119 --> 00:19:28,880
Speaker 3: seen a reduced version of him in his late thirties.

427
00:19:28,920 --> 00:19:31,719
Speaker 3: So give me your breakdown on Pedro Falcle and then

428
00:19:31,720 --> 00:19:34,440
Speaker 3: go ahead and transition us to the top prop section

429
00:19:34,520 --> 00:19:36,440
Speaker 3: with your propit as well.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, so the two big things that stood out for

431
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Speaker 1: me here is Pedro Falcl is a fairly high level grappler.

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00:19:41,480 --> 00:19:42,920
Speaker 1: I don't know if he's done on any like high

433
00:19:43,000 --> 00:19:46,520
Speaker 1: level submission competition, but like that's his base, that's what

434
00:19:46,600 --> 00:19:47,160
Speaker 1: he's good at.

435
00:19:47,160 --> 00:19:48,200
Speaker 4: He's been doing that a while.

436
00:19:48,800 --> 00:19:51,800
Speaker 1: Victor Henry was submitted in his last fight by Charles Jordaine,

437
00:19:51,840 --> 00:19:54,399
Speaker 1: which is not a great look. Henry was initiating the

438
00:19:54,400 --> 00:19:57,880
Speaker 1: grappling then got himself gillotine, which, like Jordaane is good

439
00:19:57,880 --> 00:19:59,639
Speaker 1: at that. So I kind of get it, but I

440
00:19:59,760 --> 00:20:03,159
Speaker 1: was annoyed that he managed to fall into that trap,

441
00:20:03,400 --> 00:20:07,080
Speaker 1: and I think Falco is a much more versatile submission threat.

442
00:20:07,600 --> 00:20:10,240
Speaker 1: And Falco lost in his UFC debut, but it was

443
00:20:10,280 --> 00:20:13,359
Speaker 1: a reasonably close fight outside of him getting knocked down,

444
00:20:14,080 --> 00:20:15,919
Speaker 1: and he took that one on very short notice. So

445
00:20:15,960 --> 00:20:18,879
Speaker 1: I just think there's a fundamental under rating here for

446
00:20:18,960 --> 00:20:22,399
Speaker 1: the younger guy who looked worse than he probably is,

447
00:20:22,480 --> 00:20:24,840
Speaker 1: just due to the nature of his first fight. And yeah,

448
00:20:24,880 --> 00:20:28,240
Speaker 1: to transition to the props Falcoal, I saw it plus

449
00:20:28,240 --> 00:20:30,359
Speaker 1: eight hundred, I would make that a bigger trunk of

450
00:20:30,400 --> 00:20:33,760
Speaker 1: his win condition. Henry likes to grapple, so I don't

451
00:20:33,760 --> 00:20:35,680
Speaker 1: think it's going to be one of those where Falcow

452
00:20:35,720 --> 00:20:39,159
Speaker 1: has to work especially hard to initiate some grappling, and

453
00:20:39,200 --> 00:20:43,720
Speaker 1: he's just, I think pretty noticeably a higher level overall grappler.

454
00:20:44,080 --> 00:20:46,480
Speaker 1: So the opportunity should be there just because Henry is

455
00:20:46,480 --> 00:20:48,880
Speaker 1: not going to totally shy away from that, and if

456
00:20:49,000 --> 00:20:50,600
Speaker 1: we give him enough chances, I think he'll be able

457
00:20:50,600 --> 00:20:53,160
Speaker 1: to submit Victor Henry. So plus eight hundred pretty good

458
00:20:53,160 --> 00:20:55,159
Speaker 1: price on that. I did half a unit on his

459
00:20:55,240 --> 00:20:58,320
Speaker 1: money line at plus one seventy five, and then point

460
00:20:58,320 --> 00:20:59,800
Speaker 1: two units on the submission line.

461
00:21:00,800 --> 00:21:02,920
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean by nature of the fight being seventy

462
00:21:02,960 --> 00:21:05,080
Speaker 3: percent implied to go to decision, as I said, like

463
00:21:05,160 --> 00:21:07,720
Speaker 3: the underdog here, but more so like Falcaalu by a

464
00:21:07,720 --> 00:21:09,919
Speaker 3: decision at plus four to sixty, I made that closer

465
00:21:09,960 --> 00:21:12,520
Speaker 3: to plus three ten. I made the decision, you know,

466
00:21:12,600 --> 00:21:14,680
Speaker 3: prop a bigger part of his win condition than the submission,

467
00:21:16,160 --> 00:21:18,880
Speaker 3: just because highly likely to go to the decision five

468
00:21:18,920 --> 00:21:22,080
Speaker 3: years younger age advantage. Maybe he can out grapple Henry

469
00:21:22,400 --> 00:21:24,760
Speaker 3: for stretches, unlikely to outstrike him in terms of volume,

470
00:21:24,760 --> 00:21:27,160
Speaker 3: but I do think he'll be competitive in all aspects

471
00:21:27,160 --> 00:21:30,240
Speaker 3: of the fight. And as I said, Henry's athleticism is

472
00:21:30,320 --> 00:21:32,960
Speaker 3: overall effectiveness seems to be declining now that he's getting

473
00:21:32,960 --> 00:21:33,679
Speaker 3: into his late thirties.

474
00:21:33,720 --> 00:21:36,440
Speaker 2: Came into the UFC huge upset win is plus three

475
00:21:36,480 --> 00:21:38,000
Speaker 2: fifty plus four hundred underdog.

476
00:21:38,160 --> 00:21:40,320
Speaker 3: I think the market, you know, sort of overrated him

477
00:21:40,320 --> 00:21:42,840
Speaker 3: a little bit after that, even though he's well rounded,

478
00:21:42,960 --> 00:21:45,320
Speaker 3: really good skill set, but came to the UFC very

479
00:21:45,400 --> 00:21:49,240
Speaker 3: late in his career, well established regional fighter, unfortunately was

480
00:21:49,280 --> 00:21:50,639
Speaker 3: on the wrong side of the age curve by the

481
00:21:50,680 --> 00:21:51,440
Speaker 3: time he arrived.

482
00:21:51,640 --> 00:21:55,240
Speaker 2: I think he's already nearing the end of his MMA career.

483
00:21:55,960 --> 00:22:00,400
Speaker 3: My top props gonna be Louis Garrule against Ode Osbourne.

484
00:22:00,440 --> 00:22:02,879
Speaker 3: Oda is a big reach advantage nine h reach advantage here.

485
00:22:02,920 --> 00:22:05,520
Speaker 3: He's also two inches taller, should be the much more

486
00:22:05,560 --> 00:22:08,720
Speaker 3: dangerous man in the first round, but Garouley has the

487
00:22:08,760 --> 00:22:11,440
Speaker 3: skill set to cook Oda down the stretch here. Oda

488
00:22:11,560 --> 00:22:13,359
Speaker 3: never has good cardio. He is big for the one

489
00:22:13,400 --> 00:22:16,000
Speaker 3: hundred and twenty five pound division, clearly cuts weight to

490
00:22:16,080 --> 00:22:18,840
Speaker 3: make one twenty five and as a result, he tends

491
00:22:18,880 --> 00:22:21,159
Speaker 3: to weigh in the second or third rounds. Has been

492
00:22:21,160 --> 00:22:24,360
Speaker 3: finished a number of times in rounds two and rounds three,

493
00:22:24,880 --> 00:22:27,480
Speaker 3: and Garuley inside the distance round two of plus six

494
00:22:27,520 --> 00:22:30,440
Speaker 3: fifty round three a plus nine hundred same game parlay

495
00:22:30,520 --> 00:22:32,120
Speaker 3: with an over one and a half. All of those

496
00:22:32,160 --> 00:22:35,040
Speaker 3: bets interest me. I'm not sure specifically what I'm playing yet,

497
00:22:35,320 --> 00:22:38,000
Speaker 3: but I will be playing some iteration of Garuly late

498
00:22:38,440 --> 00:22:41,920
Speaker 3: against Oday Osborne. I think he probably finishes him between

499
00:22:41,960 --> 00:22:44,440
Speaker 3: the over one and a half between the under two

500
00:22:44,440 --> 00:22:46,320
Speaker 3: and a half. That's why I'm like targeting those over

501
00:22:46,359 --> 00:22:48,560
Speaker 3: one and a half same game parlay or the round

502
00:22:48,560 --> 00:22:53,240
Speaker 3: two round three props, et cetera. But cardio advantage, pressure, pace,

503
00:22:53,720 --> 00:22:57,440
Speaker 3: et cetera. Garulely live after round one, inside the distance

504
00:22:57,520 --> 00:23:00,640
Speaker 3: and late props my favorite way to bet that far. Really,

505
00:23:00,680 --> 00:23:03,760
Speaker 3: Any thoughts on Louise Garole against Odie Osbourne. GURULEI a

506
00:23:03,800 --> 00:23:06,360
Speaker 3: Contender Series guy, curious about your thoughts on him. I'll

507
00:23:06,400 --> 00:23:09,480
Speaker 3: be talking about another Contender Series debutant a second, But

508
00:23:09,520 --> 00:23:10,520
Speaker 3: thoughts on Louis Garoli.

509
00:23:11,560 --> 00:23:14,320
Speaker 1: Yeah, Guruley was interesting coming in on the Contender Series.

510
00:23:14,359 --> 00:23:17,199
Speaker 1: I believe his fight against Nick Pichininni he took on

511
00:23:17,240 --> 00:23:20,000
Speaker 1: short notice because pitchin Ani was supposed to have the

512
00:23:20,040 --> 00:23:23,560
Speaker 1: rematch with Jack Duffy after they had a split. It

513
00:23:23,600 --> 00:23:25,919
Speaker 1: was a split decision. He showed good grappling in that

514
00:23:26,320 --> 00:23:28,800
Speaker 1: he managed to keep getting up against a D one wrestler,

515
00:23:28,920 --> 00:23:31,600
Speaker 1: but like he also got taken down ten times, which

516
00:23:31,600 --> 00:23:34,040
Speaker 1: makes him hard to handicap against somebody like Oda, who's

517
00:23:34,080 --> 00:23:37,080
Speaker 1: gonna be far more striking based. So I've been mostly

518
00:23:37,119 --> 00:23:39,000
Speaker 1: staying away from this one just because I don't I

519
00:23:39,040 --> 00:23:40,920
Speaker 1: don't really have a good comp in terms of tape

520
00:23:40,960 --> 00:23:44,920
Speaker 1: I can see on Garule against a fighter like Osborne.

521
00:23:45,000 --> 00:23:46,520
Speaker 4: I do think he's the better fighter here.

522
00:23:46,600 --> 00:23:48,720
Speaker 1: It's just kind of a matter of how the late

523
00:23:48,760 --> 00:23:51,639
Speaker 1: finish is interesting to me, I would probably go like

524
00:23:52,160 --> 00:23:55,119
Speaker 1: the round three or decision or one of the sgps,

525
00:23:55,160 --> 00:23:57,359
Speaker 1: just in case he gets a somewhat dominant decision against

526
00:23:57,400 --> 00:24:00,400
Speaker 1: the guy in Osborne, who is like barely hanging onto

527
00:24:00,480 --> 00:24:03,479
Speaker 1: USC level, for lack of a better way to put that, like,

528
00:24:03,480 --> 00:24:06,840
Speaker 1: he's he's fine, he's decent, but in other weight classes,

529
00:24:06,840 --> 00:24:09,280
Speaker 1: I don't think he'd still be here. But Flywaight is

530
00:24:09,440 --> 00:24:12,679
Speaker 1: relatively thin and he can find some spots where he

531
00:24:12,680 --> 00:24:14,600
Speaker 1: can be of service to the promotion, So I think

532
00:24:14,720 --> 00:24:15,800
Speaker 1: really should win this one.

533
00:24:15,840 --> 00:24:17,440
Speaker 4: I'm just not confident exactly how.

534
00:24:18,160 --> 00:24:19,440
Speaker 2: Let's move on our best bets.

535
00:24:19,440 --> 00:24:21,960
Speaker 3: We were aligned on our actual best bet, and this

536
00:24:22,080 --> 00:24:24,240
Speaker 3: is an actual best bet for me in terms of

537
00:24:24,240 --> 00:24:28,920
Speaker 3: the percentages for this card. Talada Alan Carr currently about

538
00:24:28,920 --> 00:24:31,159
Speaker 3: a pick the price against Vanessa Demopolis. Alan Carr is

539
00:24:31,160 --> 00:24:34,439
Speaker 3: starting to move a little bit towards favorite, but the market,

540
00:24:34,600 --> 00:24:38,399
Speaker 3: public projections, bets et cetera all picking Demopolis to win

541
00:24:38,440 --> 00:24:41,320
Speaker 3: this fight about sixty five percent of the time compared

542
00:24:41,320 --> 00:24:43,359
Speaker 3: to the pick the price. I very much know based

543
00:24:43,359 --> 00:24:46,800
Speaker 3: on my projections that Alan Carr is the quote unquote

544
00:24:46,840 --> 00:24:49,639
Speaker 3: sharper side of the line here, just based off of

545
00:24:49,960 --> 00:24:53,600
Speaker 3: the market activity. Again, sixty five percent of people picking

546
00:24:53,600 --> 00:24:55,960
Speaker 3: Demo to win this fight in a pick a matchup. Now,

547
00:24:56,119 --> 00:24:58,840
Speaker 3: these may be the two shortest reaches of any fighters

548
00:24:58,840 --> 00:25:00,840
Speaker 3: in the UFC, both under six the inches of reach.

549
00:25:01,560 --> 00:25:04,359
Speaker 3: What's is Hazus Agular is? What is he at sixty?

550
00:25:04,880 --> 00:25:05,439
Speaker 2: Do you remember?

551
00:25:06,320 --> 00:25:08,040
Speaker 1: I don't remember off the top of my head, but

552
00:25:08,119 --> 00:25:10,320
Speaker 1: he's he's challenging these two five ft one.

553
00:25:10,760 --> 00:25:12,560
Speaker 3: He might be at fifty eight as well. I feel

554
00:25:12,560 --> 00:25:14,400
Speaker 3: like Agilar might be in the fifties. But yeah, it's

555
00:25:14,440 --> 00:25:17,600
Speaker 3: a demo Telliya, Alan Carr, Jesus Agular are all like

556
00:25:17,760 --> 00:25:20,760
Speaker 3: sixty inches of reach or below? Are six sextus in

557
00:25:20,840 --> 00:25:23,080
Speaker 3: the reach advantage? Want to tell her when a treach advantage?

558
00:25:23,760 --> 00:25:26,320
Speaker 3: You know she may be the better striker, Alan Carr

559
00:25:26,400 --> 00:25:29,640
Speaker 3: is the better jiu jitsu practitioner here, the better grappler,

560
00:25:29,760 --> 00:25:32,640
Speaker 3: I think, the much likelier finisher of the pair.

561
00:25:33,080 --> 00:25:35,240
Speaker 2: This fight is used to go to a decision.

562
00:25:35,200 --> 00:25:38,040
Speaker 3: And when Demopolis's fights do go to a decision, she

563
00:25:38,200 --> 00:25:40,520
Speaker 3: tends to either win the fight she shouldn't or lose

564
00:25:40,600 --> 00:25:41,919
Speaker 3: the fights that she should win.

565
00:25:42,080 --> 00:25:43,960
Speaker 2: So you never know what the scorecards are going to.

566
00:25:43,960 --> 00:25:46,320
Speaker 3: Look like once the Moopolis goes off fifteen minutes, but

567
00:25:46,359 --> 00:25:49,080
Speaker 3: I think Alan Carr the likelier finisher, happy to grab

568
00:25:49,200 --> 00:25:51,040
Speaker 3: her at about minus one fifteen.

569
00:25:51,359 --> 00:25:52,719
Speaker 2: Billy, what did I miss in my breakdown?

570
00:25:54,640 --> 00:25:55,879
Speaker 4: Not I wouldn't say you missed it.

571
00:25:55,960 --> 00:25:58,520
Speaker 1: But they are both bad at everything that isn't jiu jitsu,

572
00:25:58,840 --> 00:26:00,640
Speaker 1: Like they're just neither of them are good at any

573
00:26:00,720 --> 00:26:02,960
Speaker 1: other part of the game, which is fine, like especially

574
00:26:03,040 --> 00:26:06,919
Speaker 1: in her divisions, but the level to which they are

575
00:26:06,920 --> 00:26:10,400
Speaker 1: good at jiu jitsu is just drastically different. Talida Allen

576
00:26:10,480 --> 00:26:13,080
Speaker 1: Carr got her black belt in twenty sixteen and then

577
00:26:13,200 --> 00:26:16,520
Speaker 1: one NOGI Worlds that year. If Vanessa Demopolis had like

578
00:26:17,320 --> 00:26:19,720
Speaker 1: just started training kind of for fun a couple of

579
00:26:19,760 --> 00:26:22,440
Speaker 1: years before that, and Alan Carr is younger, so like,

580
00:26:23,280 --> 00:26:26,520
Speaker 1: they're both black belts, but one is like the black

581
00:26:26,600 --> 00:26:28,840
Speaker 1: belt that might be at your local gym, and the

582
00:26:28,920 --> 00:26:32,120
Speaker 1: other is like a world class, three time world champion

583
00:26:32,440 --> 00:26:36,800
Speaker 1: black belt. If it's a striking match, whatever somebody might win,

584
00:26:37,200 --> 00:26:39,280
Speaker 1: we're gonna get some grappling at some point. That is

585
00:26:39,359 --> 00:26:42,879
Speaker 1: really the only clear advantage I see for anyone. Vanessa

586
00:26:42,920 --> 00:26:45,960
Speaker 1: Demopolis doesn't really defend takedowns. She has a twenty seven

587
00:26:46,000 --> 00:26:49,639
Speaker 1: percent takedown defense in her USC career, which is fine

588
00:26:49,640 --> 00:26:51,520
Speaker 1: if you think you can submit your opponent, because that's

589
00:26:51,560 --> 00:26:54,000
Speaker 1: where you want to be. Anyway, if she continues that

590
00:26:54,119 --> 00:26:57,600
Speaker 1: against Telida Allencarr, that is a major problem. There's not

591
00:26:58,119 --> 00:27:00,159
Speaker 1: I don't know if there's another fighter currently on the

592
00:27:00,240 --> 00:27:02,719
Speaker 1: roster that I would bet Alan Carr with a minus

593
00:27:03,760 --> 00:27:06,440
Speaker 1: sign in front of her price other than Vanessa Demopolis.

594
00:27:07,040 --> 00:27:09,720
Speaker 1: And not that Demopolis is necessarily the worst fighter in

595
00:27:09,800 --> 00:27:12,240
Speaker 1: the division, but she is just the perfect stylistic match

596
00:27:12,320 --> 00:27:14,720
Speaker 1: up for Alan Carr. Like, this is exactly who you

597
00:27:14,760 --> 00:27:17,560
Speaker 1: would put to make Alan Carr look good because very

598
00:27:17,600 --> 00:27:20,560
Speaker 1: little striking threat from Demopolis. She is going to accept

599
00:27:20,600 --> 00:27:23,680
Speaker 1: the takedowns or shoot for them herself, and she is

600
00:27:23,800 --> 00:27:27,920
Speaker 1: just so clearly worse at submission grappling than Alan Carr.

601
00:27:27,960 --> 00:27:29,199
Speaker 1: So kind of a perfect storm here.

602
00:27:29,240 --> 00:27:31,960
Speaker 3: I think, would you bet Alan Carr minus money against

603
00:27:31,960 --> 00:27:33,200
Speaker 3: the Stella Nunaz.

604
00:27:33,680 --> 00:27:36,920
Speaker 4: Also on this card? Yeah, that's see. I don't know that.

605
00:27:37,119 --> 00:27:40,520
Speaker 1: I think Nunas is probably a worst overall fighter, but

606
00:27:40,760 --> 00:27:42,880
Speaker 1: she has at least like a way that you could see,

607
00:27:42,920 --> 00:27:45,040
Speaker 1: like if she defends two takedowns and strikes.

608
00:27:45,240 --> 00:27:47,840
Speaker 4: She might actually do that, where I don't think Demopolis does, so.

609
00:27:48,800 --> 00:27:50,720
Speaker 1: Maybe like I would, It's kind of a rock paper

610
00:27:50,760 --> 00:27:53,480
Speaker 1: scissors thing here where I would probably bet Demopolis over

611
00:27:53,600 --> 00:27:56,960
Speaker 1: Nuna's Nuna's over Alan Carr, but Alan Carr over Demopolis. Yeah,

612
00:27:57,000 --> 00:27:57,760
Speaker 1: I think so too, I think.

613
00:27:58,760 --> 00:28:00,680
Speaker 4: But yeah, that's that's interesting question.

614
00:28:00,720 --> 00:28:02,879
Speaker 1: Hopefully they don't switch this fight at some point for

615
00:28:02,920 --> 00:28:04,840
Speaker 1: any reason to make me answer that in the next

616
00:28:04,920 --> 00:28:05,600
Speaker 1: point four hours.

617
00:28:06,000 --> 00:28:08,480
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think I take Nunez over Alan Carr because

618
00:28:08,480 --> 00:28:10,679
Speaker 3: I don't like either of their cardio. I think Demopolis

619
00:28:10,720 --> 00:28:13,880
Speaker 3: has the best cardio of the three. That's my concern

620
00:28:14,000 --> 00:28:15,840
Speaker 3: with Alan Carr in this fight is just you know,

621
00:28:16,600 --> 00:28:19,680
Speaker 3: gets into dominant position in round one, doesn't finish the fight,

622
00:28:20,320 --> 00:28:22,200
Speaker 3: and then like can't get a takedown over the final

623
00:28:22,240 --> 00:28:25,240
Speaker 3: two rounds and Demo edges her in close striking rounds

624
00:28:25,280 --> 00:28:28,639
Speaker 3: and wins the decision. So, you know, not like a

625
00:28:28,800 --> 00:28:30,840
Speaker 3: crazy big bet here on Alan Carr, but I do

626
00:28:30,960 --> 00:28:33,239
Speaker 3: think the much likelier finisher of the pair, And if

627
00:28:33,280 --> 00:28:36,080
Speaker 3: Demo is gonna be interested in grappling, she's going to

628
00:28:36,080 --> 00:28:38,720
Speaker 3: get stuck up bottom. More likely than not, she's happy

629
00:28:38,760 --> 00:28:41,680
Speaker 3: to hunt for armbars off of her back, armbars from Garden.

630
00:28:42,200 --> 00:28:42,960
Speaker 4: She's not gonna d.

631
00:28:44,800 --> 00:28:45,720
Speaker 2: I mean maybe she does.

632
00:28:45,840 --> 00:28:49,800
Speaker 3: You know women's MMA, it happens more than it should

633
00:28:50,280 --> 00:28:52,440
Speaker 3: based on the level that these fighters are at in

634
00:28:52,600 --> 00:28:56,400
Speaker 3: terms of their their skill sets. But yeah, I'll take

635
00:28:56,440 --> 00:28:59,480
Speaker 3: Alan Carr here based on the market weight towards the Moopolis.

636
00:29:00,080 --> 00:29:01,760
Speaker 3: One other fight I want to talk about, well, two

637
00:29:01,760 --> 00:29:03,080
Speaker 3: other fights I want to talk about before we get

638
00:29:03,080 --> 00:29:04,560
Speaker 3: out of here. One I have an actual bet on

639
00:29:05,560 --> 00:29:10,160
Speaker 3: Daniel Franza against Reese McKee. Fronza another Contender series guy

640
00:29:10,760 --> 00:29:13,560
Speaker 3: beat a seventeen to one Russian on Contender Series, denied

641
00:29:13,600 --> 00:29:16,320
Speaker 3: a couple of takedowns, ended up out striking him. He

642
00:29:16,480 --> 00:29:19,320
Speaker 3: hits really hard, and I think Ree McKee is gonna

643
00:29:19,320 --> 00:29:21,440
Speaker 3: give him a striking fight. Ree McKee not generally a

644
00:29:21,520 --> 00:29:24,000
Speaker 3: guy who's going to land takedowns. He could clinch him

645
00:29:24,120 --> 00:29:26,800
Speaker 3: up against the fence, maybe control with the cage, push

646
00:29:26,800 --> 00:29:29,400
Speaker 3: a little bit. But McKee is a tall man with

647
00:29:29,560 --> 00:29:32,200
Speaker 3: tall man striking defense forty two percent striking defense in

648
00:29:32,280 --> 00:29:35,320
Speaker 3: his career. Nickname Skeletor for a reason because he's very

649
00:29:35,360 --> 00:29:37,920
Speaker 3: tall and lanky. There's not much muscle mass on him,

650
00:29:38,280 --> 00:29:40,560
Speaker 3: and I think Fronza hits way harder. He's going to

651
00:29:40,600 --> 00:29:43,880
Speaker 3: land much more damage in this fight. Maybe mckeekn cage push,

652
00:29:44,000 --> 00:29:45,960
Speaker 3: maybe he can grap a little bit, but I think

653
00:29:45,960 --> 00:29:48,200
Speaker 3: Franza has a good chance to hurt him win a

654
00:29:48,280 --> 00:29:51,520
Speaker 3: dominant decision if not find the finish so interested in

655
00:29:51,600 --> 00:29:54,160
Speaker 3: Fronts Of Inside the Distance Lake his money line at

656
00:29:54,160 --> 00:29:56,160
Speaker 3: about minus one fifty against the guy who does not

657
00:29:56,280 --> 00:30:00,520
Speaker 3: defend strikes. Thoughts on Daniel Frnza coming off tender series

658
00:30:00,560 --> 00:30:01,840
Speaker 3: billion and then we're going to get to one other

659
00:30:02,160 --> 00:30:03,640
Speaker 3: DWCS guy before we get.

660
00:30:03,520 --> 00:30:03,800
Speaker 4: Out of here.

661
00:30:04,800 --> 00:30:06,320
Speaker 1: I have less thoughts on Fronts Of than I do

662
00:30:06,480 --> 00:30:09,800
Speaker 1: McKee because he is a very interesting, slash challenging fighter

663
00:30:09,840 --> 00:30:12,280
Speaker 1: to break down. If you watch him in Cage Warriors,

664
00:30:12,320 --> 00:30:14,640
Speaker 1: he looks like the second coming of Anderson Silva. He's

665
00:30:14,720 --> 00:30:17,000
Speaker 1: five and one or he's six and zero Cage Warriors,

666
00:30:17,080 --> 00:30:20,760
Speaker 1: five knockouts in a decision, multiple title reigns, and like, yes,

667
00:30:20,840 --> 00:30:22,920
Speaker 1: it's a lower level of competition, but he looks so

668
00:30:23,400 --> 00:30:26,160
Speaker 1: good over there. And then he fights lower level UFC

669
00:30:26,280 --> 00:30:29,680
Speaker 1: guys who, like in theory, are not that far away

670
00:30:29,800 --> 00:30:32,240
Speaker 1: from upper level Cage Warriors guys like that should be

671
00:30:32,280 --> 00:30:35,520
Speaker 1: a fairly similar level and looks terrible. So I don't

672
00:30:35,560 --> 00:30:38,600
Speaker 1: know if there's like a psychological thing, if fighting away

673
00:30:38,680 --> 00:30:41,520
Speaker 1: from England messes him up, Like, I don't know what

674
00:30:41,680 --> 00:30:44,280
Speaker 1: it is. And it's to the point where I think

675
00:30:44,760 --> 00:30:48,600
Speaker 1: I just can't bet him or against him. I can't

676
00:30:48,600 --> 00:30:50,960
Speaker 1: bet his fights because it doesn't make any sense to me,

677
00:30:51,480 --> 00:30:53,920
Speaker 1: and I would rather just not continue to lose money

678
00:30:54,320 --> 00:30:57,400
Speaker 1: on Rees's m Well, you would never have lost money

679
00:30:57,440 --> 00:30:59,600
Speaker 1: betting against Rees McKee and the USC to this point,

680
00:31:00,080 --> 00:31:02,680
Speaker 1: but I would rather just stay away. It doesn't make

681
00:31:02,720 --> 00:31:04,840
Speaker 1: any sense to me how it happened, So I'm I

682
00:31:04,960 --> 00:31:06,480
Speaker 1: am entirely scared off of that fight.

683
00:31:07,520 --> 00:31:09,960
Speaker 3: Yeah, I might just be an athleticism and strengthening like

684
00:31:10,040 --> 00:31:12,920
Speaker 3: going against other regional level guys like you know, there's

685
00:31:13,000 --> 00:31:15,640
Speaker 3: there's no athleticism advantage for them. So he's fine in

686
00:31:15,760 --> 00:31:17,440
Speaker 3: terms of striking, but once he gets up to a

687
00:31:17,520 --> 00:31:20,480
Speaker 3: higher level may struggle with athleticism. They struggle to handle

688
00:31:20,760 --> 00:31:23,280
Speaker 3: the power from opponents. Clearly he does not defend strikes well,

689
00:31:23,400 --> 00:31:27,400
Speaker 3: So like Alex Morono is not a better athlete than the.

690
00:31:29,960 --> 00:31:33,720
Speaker 4: Yeah too, not just Alex, who else? Andleus is a

691
00:31:33,760 --> 00:31:34,960
Speaker 4: better athlete. I'll give him that one.

692
00:31:35,200 --> 00:31:38,120
Speaker 1: I don't think Franza is necessarily a better athlete than

693
00:31:38,520 --> 00:31:41,600
Speaker 1: the higher level Cage Warriors fighter. But in my head,

694
00:31:41,600 --> 00:31:44,440
Speaker 1: I'm still like, this fight has the UFC you know

695
00:31:44,560 --> 00:31:46,520
Speaker 1: logo in the center of the cage show. Reese McKee

696
00:31:46,640 --> 00:31:49,680
Speaker 1: therefore must lose, even though like his skills in theory

697
00:31:49,760 --> 00:31:52,400
Speaker 1: suggests that he should win that if you watch his

698
00:31:52,480 --> 00:31:54,480
Speaker 1: fights outside of the UFC. So I don't know, but

699
00:31:54,960 --> 00:31:57,720
Speaker 1: that was a very long winded non answer, but it's

700
00:31:57,760 --> 00:31:59,520
Speaker 1: just it's a weird spot. No.

701
00:31:59,680 --> 00:32:02,840
Speaker 3: I I think the contact is good, five inch reach advantage.

702
00:32:02,880 --> 00:32:05,880
Speaker 3: He does have, you know, very good technical striking. It's

703
00:32:05,960 --> 00:32:08,960
Speaker 3: just the defense I think is what does him in ultimately.

704
00:32:09,400 --> 00:32:11,760
Speaker 2: But should be a fun fight. I think fronts is

705
00:32:11,800 --> 00:32:12,320
Speaker 2: hitable two.

706
00:32:12,440 --> 00:32:15,480
Speaker 3: You know, Fronza is gonna make it exciting, so should

707
00:32:15,480 --> 00:32:16,600
Speaker 3: be a fun fight between those two.

708
00:32:17,160 --> 00:32:18,000
Speaker 2: The last fight I want to.

709
00:32:17,960 --> 00:32:19,320
Speaker 3: Talk about before we get out of here, got to

710
00:32:19,360 --> 00:32:22,080
Speaker 3: talk about Torres Finny because you taped them three times

711
00:32:22,120 --> 00:32:24,000
Speaker 3: at Contender Series. I'm not sure if you bet any

712
00:32:24,000 --> 00:32:26,280
Speaker 3: of those fights that he was in with Torres Finni

713
00:32:26,360 --> 00:32:30,160
Speaker 3: finally earned his contract to the UFC and Frankly, the

714
00:32:30,280 --> 00:32:32,720
Speaker 3: UFC could not have given him a softer landing spot

715
00:32:33,120 --> 00:32:35,440
Speaker 3: for his first matchup, facing a guy who lost on

716
00:32:35,480 --> 00:32:38,440
Speaker 3: The Ultimate Fighter, who was out grappled on The Ultimate Fighter,

717
00:32:38,480 --> 00:32:40,560
Speaker 3: and Robert Vallentin. Do you have any thoughts on Torres

718
00:32:40,600 --> 00:32:42,680
Speaker 3: Finni Againstvalentin? There's no bet for me on this fight.

719
00:32:42,840 --> 00:32:44,040
Speaker 3: I maybe would lean.

720
00:32:44,000 --> 00:32:46,200
Speaker 2: To go to the decision, but I'll be rooting for

721
00:32:46,360 --> 00:32:47,080
Speaker 2: Torres Finny finish.

722
00:32:47,160 --> 00:32:47,640
Speaker 4: What do you see here?

723
00:32:48,600 --> 00:32:51,640
Speaker 1: Yeah, contender, serious Hall of Famer. Torres Fenny went three

724
00:32:51,640 --> 00:32:54,320
Speaker 1: and now I think I bet on him in some way,

725
00:32:54,360 --> 00:32:56,520
Speaker 1: shape or form in all three of those fights. I

726
00:32:56,680 --> 00:32:59,120
Speaker 1: know I took him to win inside the distance. The

727
00:32:59,280 --> 00:33:01,520
Speaker 1: one time he went to a decision, which was very

728
00:33:01,560 --> 00:33:04,840
Speaker 1: frustrating because he finished his first Contender Series fight. They

729
00:33:05,360 --> 00:33:07,200
Speaker 1: didn't give him a contract. They brought him back. He

730
00:33:07,280 --> 00:33:09,840
Speaker 1: won a decision. Dana complained that he didn't finish the

731
00:33:09,880 --> 00:33:11,400
Speaker 1: fight like brother, he's already done that.

732
00:33:11,560 --> 00:33:13,640
Speaker 4: He did that the last time. Very strange.

733
00:33:13,680 --> 00:33:18,080
Speaker 1: I don't I don't know what happened there. The couple

734
00:33:18,440 --> 00:33:21,040
Speaker 1: spots I was like interested in before I saw the lines.

735
00:33:21,240 --> 00:33:23,840
Speaker 1: Phinney's points spread minus three and a half, but it's

736
00:33:23,960 --> 00:33:27,080
Speaker 1: minus one eighty, which, like I think we should be

737
00:33:27,120 --> 00:33:30,800
Speaker 1: getting a better discount on that, and then Takedown Props

738
00:33:30,840 --> 00:33:33,280
Speaker 1: has set it three and a half for plus money.

739
00:33:33,560 --> 00:33:35,560
Speaker 1: If it were two and a half, I would really

740
00:33:35,760 --> 00:33:37,640
Speaker 1: like it because I could see him getting a takedown

741
00:33:38,040 --> 00:33:41,040
Speaker 1: and controlling on top in every round. I don't see

742
00:33:41,160 --> 00:33:44,560
Speaker 1: Valentine Frey having the get up skills to give Finnie

743
00:33:44,560 --> 00:33:48,560
Speaker 1: an opportunity for a fourth takedown, so I guess saying

744
00:33:48,640 --> 00:33:50,960
Speaker 1: that you would say the under three under three and

745
00:33:51,000 --> 00:33:53,160
Speaker 1: a half makes sense, but that's minus one sixty five

746
00:33:53,320 --> 00:33:57,040
Speaker 1: because those player prop markets are heavily juiced, So no.

747
00:33:57,200 --> 00:34:00,800
Speaker 1: Bet Phinny is my favorite DFS play by a pretty

748
00:34:00,840 --> 00:34:02,000
Speaker 1: wide margin on this slate.

749
00:34:02,480 --> 00:34:04,400
Speaker 4: The line is shifted towards him pretty heavily.

750
00:34:04,840 --> 00:34:07,040
Speaker 1: He's a good bit cheaper than the other heavy favorites,

751
00:34:07,160 --> 00:34:10,200
Speaker 1: and he's either going to get a finished or a

752
00:34:10,280 --> 00:34:12,960
Speaker 1: bunch of takedowns in control time or some takedowns in

753
00:34:13,000 --> 00:34:15,479
Speaker 1: control time, So that is where my interests. I'll probably

754
00:34:15,560 --> 00:34:17,759
Speaker 1: just be one hundred percent on Finney. I'm not playing

755
00:34:17,800 --> 00:34:20,400
Speaker 1: a ton of lineups this week, but yeah, he's a

756
00:34:20,560 --> 00:34:23,279
Speaker 1: tremendous DFS play because it's takedowns or finished and those

757
00:34:23,280 --> 00:34:24,320
Speaker 1: are the two things we want.

758
00:34:24,360 --> 00:34:25,880
Speaker 2: That'll do it for a USC betting ProView.

759
00:34:25,880 --> 00:34:27,879
Speaker 3: You can find more USC betting content for both Billy

760
00:34:27,920 --> 00:34:30,520
Speaker 3: and myself on actionnetwork dot com and in the Action

761
00:34:30,560 --> 00:34:32,080
Speaker 3: Nework Gap. And if you'd like to instantly tell some

762
00:34:32,120 --> 00:34:34,879
Speaker 3: of the bests we discussed on today's show, make sure

763
00:34:34,880 --> 00:34:36,320
Speaker 3: to look for the quick slip links to both the

764
00:34:36,360 --> 00:34:39,279
Speaker 3: podcast and video descriptions, or visit Action network dot com

765
00:34:39,719 --> 00:34:42,120
Speaker 3: slash bet now. Don't forget to download the free award

766
00:34:42,160 --> 00:34:44,040
Speaker 3: winning Action Owork Gap and sign up for Action pro

767
00:34:44,480 --> 00:34:47,000
Speaker 3: formediate access to expert books and analysis. Best to let

768
00:34:47,120 --> 00:34:49,600
Speaker 3: tell your best this weekend, enjoy the violence, take your

769
00:34:49,640 --> 00:34:50,680
Speaker 3: listen thanks to see next time.

770
00:34:56,560 --> 00:34:59,880
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771
00:35:00,400 --> 00:35:03,200
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772
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773
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