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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at ten am

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Speaker 1: Eastern on Apple car Playing and broud Otto with the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts,

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Speaker 1: or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: One of the most red topics are stories on the

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg terminal today has to do with Israel. The International

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Speaker 2: Criminal Court issued an in rest warrant for Israeli Prime

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Speaker 2: Minister Benjamin Netnyahu for alleged war crimes. Thatt's break that

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Speaker 2: down with Dan Williams. He's a reporter for Bloomberg News.

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Speaker 2: He is based in Jerusalem.

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Speaker 3: Dan, give us his story here. What does this really mean?

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Speaker 3: Because the headline kind of jumps out of you here.

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Speaker 4: It is a dramatic development. We've now seen some thirteen

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Speaker 4: and a half months of open warfare between Israel, Hamas

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Speaker 4: and Israel and Hasbela and Lebanon and other Iranian backparties

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Speaker 4: in the region that has now evolved into open law

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Speaker 4: fare with this very important court issuing arrest warrants against

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Speaker 4: the is Raeti Prime Minister benjaminter Now and the former

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Speaker 4: Defense Minister Joaf Gallant. Those are arrest warrants that are

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Speaker 4: actually binding on more than one hundred and twenty countries

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Speaker 4: that are signatories to the treaty that underpins that court's conduct.

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Speaker 4: Israel is not a signatory, neither is the United States.

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Speaker 4: Israel had sought, however, to contest this request for the

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Speaker 4: arrest warrants. That failed, as we discovered today, with the

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Speaker 4: court saying it had rejected these raady motions and upheld

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Speaker 4: and actually decided to issue those arrest warrants as sought

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Speaker 4: by the Special Prosecutor.

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Speaker 2: Has a United States made any statement on this matter,

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Speaker 2: because the support for Israel a generally quite strong in

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Speaker 2: the United States.

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Speaker 4: Indeed, and throughout these proceedings, we're talking about several months

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Speaker 4: of anticipation. I believe the Special Prosecutor formally filed his

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Speaker 4: request for arrest warrants back in late May. The Biden

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Speaker 4: minister stration said openly that it thought this was baseless.

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Speaker 4: Israel has obviously been far more vociferous, calling this antisemitic,

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Speaker 4: likening it to the infamous Dreyfus trial. I think both

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Speaker 4: countries will be looking to what the next US administration,

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Speaker 4: the Trump administration, will do, and significant parties in that

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Speaker 4: administration are already saying that when the time comes, they

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Speaker 4: will double down on their support for Israel. The question

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Speaker 4: is what does that mean. Are they going to try

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Speaker 4: to convince like minded countries in Western Europe to withdraw

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Speaker 4: from the court or on an individual level, to state

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Speaker 4: that they will not abide they will not honor these

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Speaker 4: arrest warrants. As I said, it's dramatic development, and I

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Speaker 4: think these Raelis will be strategizing very very intensely. Right now.

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Speaker 2: Do we why historically have has Israel and the United

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Speaker 2: States not been a party to this court?

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Speaker 4: I think it comes down to a fear for their autonomy.

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Speaker 4: Also the fact that, certainly since the War on Terror,

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Speaker 4: the United States has been waging a time quite unilateral

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Speaker 4: national security policies abroad, wars that did not always have

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Speaker 4: international support. I think the argument is that this would

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Speaker 4: effectively intrude on self determination, self defense, the sovereign rights

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Speaker 4: of a country. And also they would argue that this

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Speaker 4: court is designed to bring justice to countries where there's

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Speaker 4: no working inside internal organic justice system. Now Israel says

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Speaker 4: it's justicism works perfectly fine. It's had the support of

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Speaker 4: some Western countries for that, but it seems that the

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Speaker 4: ICC has decided not to find in favor of that

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Speaker 4: point of view this time. So in effect, Israel or

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Speaker 4: at least these two leaders will be treated like pariahs

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Speaker 4: in many of the countries that are required to abide

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Speaker 4: by it. It's a development that I think NETANIAO will

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Speaker 4: find very very unwelcome.

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Speaker 2: I can imagine, Dan, where is just to educate us?

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Speaker 2: Where is the International Criminal Court?

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Speaker 3: Where is it based?

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Speaker 2: And are there are certain countries that have particular influence

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Speaker 2: on this court?

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Speaker 4: It's at Behague in the Netherlands. That's also where the

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Speaker 4: International Court of Justices. That's a court with slightly different

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Speaker 4: mandate and different jurisdiction. And again it's an extension of

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Speaker 4: various treaties and conventions that arose, especially off to World

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Speaker 4: War Two. The bulk of the world's countries are signatories.

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Speaker 4: It means they have standing to argue, to submit. It

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Speaker 4: also requires them to enflse when warrants, when decisions such

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Speaker 4: as has come down.

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Speaker 2: All right, Dan, thank you so much for your reporting.

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Speaker 2: We really appreciate that. Dan Williams, he's a reporter for

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg News. He's based in Jerusalem. Again on the geopolitical front,

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Speaker 2: just another major development, the International Criminal Court issues and

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Speaker 2: arrest warrant for Israeli Prime Minister of Benjamin at Yaou

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Speaker 2: for alleged war crimes, and we appreciate getting that on

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Speaker 2: the ground reporting from Israeli.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live

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Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on applecard Play and Android

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Speaker 1: Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty.

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Speaker 3: All right, offspring number four bought in video.

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Speaker 2: He's down on his trade and he bought it from

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Speaker 2: his brother who works in the financial services industry.

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Speaker 3: So we were on a.

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Speaker 2: Conference call yesterday heated talking about breaking down the quarter

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Speaker 2: for in video.

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Speaker 3: I thought the numbers were good.

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Speaker 2: Let's talk to an expert man deep seeing senior technology

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Speaker 2: analys from Bloomberg Intelligence.

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Speaker 3: Mandy, what you think of it?

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Speaker 2: The numbers came in, you know, a little bit better

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Speaker 2: and expected guidance pretty solid, but again the whisper was

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Speaker 2: probably a little bit higher.

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Speaker 5: So yeah, and look, when you have a price for perfection,

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Speaker 5: that Invidia is always you know, any slight miss in

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Speaker 5: the networking side, which was the case here, or even

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Speaker 5: a gross margin degradation, which they said we'll go up

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Speaker 5: in the second half of next year. So it's really

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Speaker 5: a transitory thing. We'll have an impact on the stock,

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Speaker 5: and I think overall the demand side looks pretty solid.

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Speaker 5: They said, they've Jensen called out there will be no

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Speaker 5: Capex digestion until the data center spending hits a trillion dollars.

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Speaker 6: That's huge.

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Speaker 5: I mean, just think about you know how much runway

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Speaker 5: he thinks without a pause. Now does the market believe it?

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Speaker 5: Probably not, given what we heard at our conference yesterday

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Speaker 5: is it's moving from training to inferencing, and on the

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Speaker 5: inferencing side there is probably more. So if once you

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Speaker 5: have a train model, you're deploying that model in co

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Speaker 5: pilots or chat pots and it's basically a train model

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Speaker 5: that's being used for answering queries and that's inferencing answering

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Speaker 5: queries or you know, providing some productivity benefit. And that's

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Speaker 5: where do you really need a high end in video chip?

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Speaker 5: The answer is divided. Some people say for the older

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Speaker 5: versions of in video chips, you could use that for inferencing,

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Speaker 5: the latest one will continue to get used for training.

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Speaker 5: And that's a plausible answer. But as we have learned,

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Speaker 5: there is growing competition on the inferencing side from the

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Speaker 5: likes of AMD, as well as startups like sam Bnova,

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Speaker 5: Cerebras and all these companies are trying to get some

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Speaker 5: portion of that pie.

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Speaker 2: And folks, Ben Deep was referencing a conference he hosted

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Speaker 2: yesterday and annaag Rana are other technology channels to Bloomberg Intelligence.

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Speaker 2: It was a phenomenal conference. I mean, they had some

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Speaker 2: just amazing speakers there. And the next time you get

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Speaker 2: something in near your mail saying hey, come to a

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Speaker 2: BI sponsored conference, get off your ear end and get

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Speaker 2: to these conferences because some seriously smart people get together

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Speaker 2: and you learn a lot. I did hosting a couple

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Speaker 2: panels yesterday.

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Speaker 6: Men Deep, So.

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Speaker 2: When you listen to this the management team in Nvidia,

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Speaker 2: where do they say, I mean, can they look a year,

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Speaker 2: two years in advance, how do they think their business

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Speaker 2: is going to develop?

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Speaker 6: Yeah?

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Speaker 5: I mean look the fact that they're saying growth margins

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Speaker 5: will go down to around seventy one percent over the

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Speaker 5: next two quarters, but readbound seventy one seventy one real smart, Yes, wow,

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Speaker 5: and it's it's again terrific when you look at it

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Speaker 5: from every angle. Is just the way expectations were priced

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Speaker 5: for it's mid seventy percent. So the fact that they

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Speaker 5: are going down to seventy one percent, but in Jensen's

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Speaker 5: you know case, he called out those margins going back

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Speaker 5: to seventy five percent. So it's really a ramp up

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Speaker 5: of their new architecture Blackwell, which is causing the transitory

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Speaker 5: gross margin degradation. But once they get that in full production,

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Speaker 5: he expects gross margins to go back to seventy five percent.

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Speaker 5: Now I do think again there will be more competition,

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Speaker 5: but he clearly doesn't believe that to be the case.

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Speaker 2: All Right, I mean, here are just some crazy numbers

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Speaker 2: of folks. Just total revenue. Let's let's got really simple here.

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Speaker 2: Revenue roughly calendar year twenty two, twenty seven billion of revenue.

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Speaker 2: Calendar you're twenty four one hundred and twenty eight billion

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Speaker 2: of revenue. Have you seen anything like this in technology?

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Speaker 5: I mean, the closest thing that comes to mind is

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Speaker 5: the buildout out of the Internet infrastructure back in nineteen

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Speaker 5: ninety nine. I think Cisco had a similar ramp up

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Speaker 5: on the networking side. But what's different is Innvidia clearly

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Speaker 5: has the balance sheet as well as they are in

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Speaker 5: more products than Cisco was. So Cisco was just providing

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Speaker 5: the networking gear. Nvidia has a software line, they have

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Speaker 5: a networking business and then their coreship business. So clearly

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Speaker 5: Nvidia is going with the.

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Speaker 2: Platform of a stupid income statement. They have fifty five

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Speaker 2: percent net income margins, so and they have no capex

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Speaker 2: to speak of two three four point so the free

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Speaker 2: cash flow is just freakish. So what do they do

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Speaker 2: with the cash?

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Speaker 5: Well, right now they're doing some share buybacks, but acquisitions

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Speaker 5: maybe on the table if the incoming Trump administration loses

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Speaker 5: the regulation.

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Speaker 3: So okay, let's go down that road there.

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Speaker 2: What's the feeling in Silicon Valley in technology about that opportunity, Because, boy,

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Speaker 2: your industry and particularly some of the bigger companies that

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Speaker 2: you cover, the Amazons of the world, the Google's the world,

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Speaker 2: they can't do anything these days. Is the expectation that

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Speaker 2: might loosen up.

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Speaker 5: Well, the overall m andy environment an ip environment may

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Speaker 5: get better, but in terms of big tech, I doubt

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Speaker 5: it's anything is changing on that front. Especially for the

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Speaker 5: likes of Alphabet and Meta. Probably an Apple or an

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Speaker 5: Nvidia may be able to do more acquisitions, but I

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Speaker 5: think the companies that are in the crosshairs of you

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Speaker 5: know what the incoming administration feels on the consumer side,

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Speaker 5: I doubt they'll allow them to make any fur their acquisition.

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Speaker 2: All right, man, thanks so much for coming in here,

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Speaker 2: Man deep seeing senior technology analyst Bloomberg Intelligence through and

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Speaker 2: a rag Randa through a great technology conference yesterday packed

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Speaker 2: full of some really smart investors. Again, folks, the next

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Speaker 2: time you get an invite in your Bloomberg inbox, jump

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Speaker 2: on it because BI is sponsoring some really good investor conferences.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live

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Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Focar, playing Android OUTO

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Speaker 1: get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: Let's get back to these markets again. We've kind of

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Speaker 2: got red and green on the screen. The Nasdaq's off

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Speaker 2: about one percent, but the SMP and NADAL are up slightly.

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Speaker 2: Let's get a sense of where we go here as

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Speaker 2: we wrap up this earning season. Maryon Bartel's chief investment

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Speaker 2: strategist at Sanctuary Wealth. Here, Mariann, thanks so much for

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Speaker 2: joining us here. Love to just step back, you know,

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Speaker 2: maybe get a thirty thousand foot view from you on

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Speaker 2: these markets. What are you talking to your clients about

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Speaker 2: here today, because boy, a lot has changed in the

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Speaker 2: last couple of weeks with elections and geopolitics and earnings

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Speaker 2: and a lot of moving parts out there.

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Speaker 7: Well, we just released our twenty twenty five year ahead

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Speaker 7: forecast and the name of it, or the title of

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Speaker 7: it is all that's new, that's old. Yes, we have AI,

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Speaker 7: we have blockchain augmented technology, and we believe that this

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Speaker 7: is really altering not just the US economy but the

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Speaker 7: global economies. And we've likened this to similar periods from

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Speaker 7: nineteen ninety five to two thousand, but also from twenty

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Speaker 7: five to twenty nine, where we also had new technologies,

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Speaker 7: although they don't feel like new technologies. You know, the automobile,

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Speaker 7: the railroads, and markets did phenomenally well because economies grew.

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Speaker 7: So we believe we're in this extraordinary, you know, growth

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Speaker 7: cycle being led by right now in Vidia, which we

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Speaker 7: talked about. They're really altering the next generation of technology.

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Speaker 7: So we have our forecast for the SMP for next

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Speaker 7: year at seventy two hundred to seventy four hundred.

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Speaker 3: Wow and yees.

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Speaker 7: That means another twenty percent. But when we went back

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Speaker 7: and analyzed the nineties, from ninety five to two thousand,

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Speaker 7: we had markets up twenty percent or higher five years

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Speaker 7: in a row. Now, in ninety seven and ninety eight

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Speaker 7: we had bear market corrections within the year because we

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Speaker 7: had a tie back crisis, We had a rush of

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Speaker 7: default in the long term capital, a little bit of

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Speaker 7: a financial crisis, but those markets still rallied strongly by

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Speaker 7: the end of the year, and we think we're in

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Speaker 7: a very similar position.

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Speaker 2: Talk to us about earnings. What did you take away

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Speaker 2: from this earning cycle. We're just wrapping up with some

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Speaker 2: retailers this week. What is your view of earnings out

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Speaker 2: there again? To get to that, you know, any kind

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Speaker 2: of S ANDP handle with a seven in front of it,

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Speaker 2: you have to be pretty bullish, I would think on earnings.

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Speaker 8: I am.

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Speaker 7: I think there's a lot to do with earnings. Markets

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Speaker 7: really need earnings to grow, and we see the economy

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Speaker 7: growing next year, especially since we've already had a seventy

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Speaker 7: five basis point cut by the Fed. Now they may

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Speaker 7: slow the pace, but they're more in an easing cycle,

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Speaker 7: which we think is going to be very bullish considering

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Speaker 7: the economy is growing around three percent and we're at

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Speaker 7: full employment. The consumer has money to spend. Household network

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Speaker 7: is at a record high. When we look at disposable income,

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Speaker 7: there's enough disposable income for the consumer to spend, and

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Speaker 7: as you know in your viewers know, the consumer really

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Speaker 7: is the main driver of our economy. So we do

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Speaker 7: think the cycle is being led by technology. This year

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Speaker 7: it's been really all about Semis. We think that narrative

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Speaker 7: is shifting a little bit more now to software. Not

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Speaker 7: that we're negative on semis, but we think the pace

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Speaker 7: of their ascent can slow down, and now we see

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Speaker 7: a cycle of software growing as we go into twenty

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Speaker 7: twenty five. Another positive for earnings is the steeple yield

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Speaker 7: curve for banks, and we also like the capital markets.

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Speaker 7: Those are important ingredients to keep an economy going. I

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Speaker 7: always say the banks are the heartbeat of the economy

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Speaker 7: and the private markets, the private credit markets are flesh

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Speaker 7: with liquidity to provide to companies. So we're very optimistic

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Speaker 7: and we see also profit margins growing, so we think

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Speaker 7: we're really in that goldilocks environment.

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Speaker 2: Well, I think I may be calling the top in

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Speaker 2: the tech market because my youngest offspring just bought some

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Speaker 2: invidious and that's got to be the top. So if

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Speaker 2: I wanted to diversify Marianna and try to find some

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Speaker 2: value out there, where do I go?

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Speaker 7: So we think the best if you're looking for value,

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Speaker 7: we do think the best value is in the financials,

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Speaker 7: particularly in the banks and also the capital markets. You know,

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Speaker 7: energy is good value, but we don't really see crude

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Speaker 7: oil firming up. We think crew going into twenty twenty

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Speaker 7: five is going to be either range or too slightly down.

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Speaker 7: Especially with the Trump administration, there's concern that we'll add

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Speaker 7: to supply, and if you add to supply in a

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Speaker 7: weaker demand environment which we're in, particularly because of China,

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Speaker 7: we think that, you know, energy is really not the

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Speaker 7: place to be for twenty twenty five, at least for value.

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Speaker 7: So the values really I think best in financials. Which

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Speaker 7: really shocking is you know, healthcare and staples, which are

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Speaker 7: really called your defensive part of your market, are really

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Speaker 7: falling off a cliff in terms of relative performance, we

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Speaker 7: really don't even see any value in there. So best

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Speaker 7: place for value would be the financials.

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Speaker 2: Marian, how about outside the US do you guys allocate

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Speaker 2: any many outside of the US markets?

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Speaker 7: You know, in terms of asset allocation when you look

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Speaker 7: at asset allocation models over a very long term period,

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Speaker 7: diversifying internationally does work. But our thesis going into twenty

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Speaker 7: twenty five, if we are correct that we're in this

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Speaker 7: new technological advance, most of the technologies being developed here

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Speaker 7: in the United States, and that means you have to

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Speaker 7: own the companies here in the United States. So we

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Speaker 7: see capital flows continuing to come to the United States.

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Speaker 7: So although markets we think can go up outside of

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Speaker 7: the United States, we think the leader of the pack

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Speaker 7: will remain in the United States. Now it may be

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Speaker 7: choppy back and forth, you know, up down, updown, but

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Speaker 7: by the end of the year, we still think the

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Speaker 7: US will do well. And then you have to consider

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Speaker 7: the US dollar, and we see the US dollar as

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Speaker 7: either being stable too strong. So when you invest overseas,

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Speaker 7: if the dollar strengthens, you lose part of your return.

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Speaker 7: So for you know, twenty twenty five, we have an

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Speaker 7: overweight to the US.

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Speaker 3: All right, Mary, and thank you so much. We appreciate that.

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Speaker 2: Marion Bartel's she's a chief investment strategist for Sanctuary Wealth.

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Speaker 2: Joining us from New York via some zoom.

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Speaker 1: Here, you're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us

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Speaker 1: live weekdays at ten am Eastern on applecar Play and

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Speaker 1: listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station,

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Speaker 1: just say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty.

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Speaker 6: All right, Alexe on Pauls.

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Speaker 2: When you're live here in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker studio

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Speaker 2: or streaming live on YouTube as well as to check

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Speaker 2: us out of Bloomberg, go over to YouTube dot com

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Speaker 2: and search Bloomberg Podcast. All right, Bitcoin, I'm calling it

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Speaker 2: out for Tom Keen. I'm calling out from Matt Miller.

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Speaker 2: Up one point eight percent ninety six thousand, two hundred.

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Speaker 2: I mean, we are right on that one hundred thousand

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Speaker 2: dollars level. Let's break down what's happening. Let's see what

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Speaker 2: could be behind some of this stuff. Michael Reagan, he's

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Speaker 2: a crypto team leader. Yes, we have a team of

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Speaker 2: reporters covering crypto at Bloomberg, which means you need a

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Speaker 2: team leader to manage these folks, and that's Michael Reagan.

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Speaker 2: He drew the short stroll. He joins us here on

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Speaker 2: at Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio. At the election, I'm just

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Speaker 2: gonna swag it here, it was about sixty thousand. Here

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Speaker 2: we are pushing up against one hundred thousand.

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Speaker 3: What accounts for that delta?

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Speaker 9: Yeah, you know the expression I keep hearing over and

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Speaker 9: over again, Paul's paradigm shift. You know, we went from

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Speaker 9: sort of the near death of the entire industry with

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Speaker 9: FTX and all the dominoes that fell after it a

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Speaker 9: few years ago. Biden followed up the administration. Biden administration

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Speaker 9: followed up with a really fierce crackdown on the industry.

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Speaker 6: Now what Trump.

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Speaker 9: Has signaled as a complete one eighty, you know, instead

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Speaker 9: of this you know, highly regulated, very intense scrutiny on

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Speaker 9: the industry, he's talking about, you know, replacing Gary Gensler

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Speaker 9: with a crypto lover and just you know, really being

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Speaker 9: friendly to the to the broader industry of digital assets.

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Speaker 9: But the real for bitcoin specifically, it's this promise that

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Speaker 9: Trump made in July at a bitcoin conference to create

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Speaker 9: what he called a strategic bitcoin stockpile. So, you know,

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Speaker 9: think of the strategic petroleum reserve. You know, we've had

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Speaker 9: strategic wheat reserves in the past.

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Speaker 6: You know.

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Speaker 9: The thinking of him and Synthonia Loomis, his ally and

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Speaker 9: the Senate, the senator from Wyoming, is that if you

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Speaker 9: not only Trump. First of all, the government owns about

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Speaker 9: two hundred and change bitcoin from various criminal ASCID forfeitures.

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Speaker 6: That's why I know that.

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Speaker 9: Okay, So that's sort of the what Trump has hinted

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Speaker 9: would be the basis for this reserve. Senator Loomis wants

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Speaker 9: to go even further and have the government by one million,

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Speaker 9: nothing short of one million bitcoins. We're talking about one

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Speaker 9: hundred billioncoins are out there for you.

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Speaker 6: That's about five percent meaning the total amount. Yeah, so.

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Speaker 9: You know, a big question mark, a big event risk

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Speaker 9: looming over this market if that bill does not sort

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Speaker 9: of gain more support. So far, she's the only sponsor

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Speaker 9: of it. There is quite a bit of skepticism that

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Speaker 9: she'll be able to get that passed, but the market

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Speaker 9: is thinking there's a good chance of that, and not

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Speaker 9: only that that other governments will have.

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Speaker 6: To follow suit.

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Speaker 9: You know, if if the US suddenly is treating bitcoin

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Speaker 9: like a major reserve asset, you know other governments will

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Speaker 9: likely be inspired her to do the same. So that's

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Speaker 9: kind of the backdrop for this just parabolic rally to

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Speaker 9: the upside that we've seen.

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Speaker 2: Because right now it sounds a little bit like they

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Speaker 2: would like to think about bitcoin the way we currently

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Speaker 2: think about gold, where we have gold sitting at Fort Knox.

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Speaker 9: That that's exactly right, and what the Loomis Bill would

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Speaker 9: do would be sell.

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Speaker 6: Off some of that.

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Speaker 9: The FED doesn't own physical gold, they owned certificates that

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Speaker 9: represent gold held in Fort Knox by the Treasury. Her

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Speaker 9: bill would require the Fed to start selling gold to

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Speaker 9: buy bitcoin. Wow, just sort of replace it as a

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Speaker 9: reserve asset. Now, obviously, you know you think about telegraphing

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Speaker 9: to the market one hundred billion buy at today's prices,

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Speaker 9: I mean Skuy's limit on the price.

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Speaker 6: That that's the thinking at least.

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Speaker 2: Because it's I mean, is what I know about bitcoin

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Speaker 2: I learned from Mike mcgloane, A fixed, if not declining

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Speaker 2: supply and presumably ever more right cases.

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Speaker 9: Yeah, every four years, every four years, the or so

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Speaker 9: the amount that's mine.

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Speaker 6: That's the new supply.

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Speaker 9: It gets cut in half, so that that proposed government

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Speaker 9: buy would actually overwhelm the amount.

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Speaker 6: That's mind all right.

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Speaker 2: Another thing that Trump's transition team is discussing the creation

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Speaker 2: of a White House post dedicated to digital asset policy.

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Speaker 6: Yeah that's yesterday. Yeah. Yeah.

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Speaker 9: It's still sort of a lot of questions about what

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Speaker 9: exactly that would mean. But the idea is, you know,

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Speaker 9: give the crypto industry sort of a representative in the

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Speaker 9: White House to manage what they want to do with

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Speaker 9: regulations and that sort of thing. Again, just another sign

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Speaker 9: of this sort of one hundred and eighty degree paradigm

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Speaker 9: shift in how the government will think about crypto and bitcoin,

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Speaker 9: especially under a Trump presidency, compared to the very tough

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Speaker 9: crackdown that we saw under President Biden. So a real

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Speaker 9: dramatic yes change that.

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Speaker 2: So I'm asking myself, how do we get to sixty thousand,

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Speaker 2: one hundred thousand? That sounds like the reason that sounds

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Speaker 2: like three. It feels like Elon musk Is kind of

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Speaker 2: has his fingerprints on.

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Speaker 6: Some of this.

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Speaker 9: Yeah, yeah, I mean he's a crypto officionado for for sure.

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Speaker 9: You know, we name the Department of Government Efficiencies is

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Speaker 9: just named after a meme coin. But I would throw

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Speaker 9: in Michael Sailor and micro strategy is another really important

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Speaker 9: element here. You know, he's tapping capital markets for forty

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Speaker 9: two billion, telling the world what he's gonna do with it,

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Speaker 9: just buy more bitcoin, and his stock is even outperforming

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Speaker 9: bitcoin itself by tremendous amounts.

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Speaker 6: So it's it's really an interesting time to watch all

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Speaker 6: this unfold.

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Speaker 3: All right, folks.

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Speaker 2: I mean, we have twenty four hundred reporters around the

443
00:23:29,280 --> 00:23:32,520
Speaker 2: world of Bloomberg News. Many of them, some of our

444
00:23:32,520 --> 00:23:35,199
Speaker 2: best are have been and continue to be dedicated to

445
00:23:35,240 --> 00:23:38,080
Speaker 2: this whole crypto market and reporting on the crypto market.

446
00:23:38,119 --> 00:23:40,640
Speaker 2: And you know, at least I know how serious Bloomberg

447
00:23:40,680 --> 00:23:42,840
Speaker 2: News is about cryptos. And when they appoint Michael Reagan

448
00:23:42,880 --> 00:23:44,359
Speaker 2: to be a team leader because he's been doing this

449
00:23:44,359 --> 00:23:46,840
Speaker 2: stuff a long time, he knows good journalism, and he's

450
00:23:46,840 --> 00:23:48,640
Speaker 2: put Michael Reagan on top of this team, that means

451
00:23:48,800 --> 00:23:51,320
Speaker 2: we're serious about a coverage of crypto.

452
00:23:51,000 --> 00:23:52,240
Speaker 6: So we'll stay on top of this stuff.

453
00:23:52,440 --> 00:23:54,800
Speaker 2: But again, you know, looking at the bitcoin up twenty

454
00:23:54,800 --> 00:23:57,639
Speaker 2: three hundred bucks here today, just under ninety seven thousand

455
00:23:57,640 --> 00:24:01,000
Speaker 2: dollars per token. A lot of folks out there make

456
00:24:01,040 --> 00:24:03,959
Speaker 2: it some big bets on crypto. Again, my youngest who

457
00:24:04,000 --> 00:24:06,880
Speaker 2: bought some Nvidia, just recently talked me about buying bitcoin.

458
00:24:06,960 --> 00:24:09,440
Speaker 2: I said, not with any of the money I've contributed

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00:24:09,480 --> 00:24:10,719
Speaker 2: to your account. If you want to go out and

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00:24:11,080 --> 00:24:12,760
Speaker 2: spend some of your money, go ahead. So that's how

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00:24:12,800 --> 00:24:13,440
Speaker 2: we think about Here.

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00:24:14,920 --> 00:24:18,840
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live

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00:24:18,920 --> 00:24:22,400
Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on applecar Play and Android

464
00:24:22,440 --> 00:24:25,240
Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen

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00:24:25,359 --> 00:24:28,440
Speaker 1: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station,

466
00:24:28,800 --> 00:24:33,920
Speaker 1: Just say Alexa, playing Bloomberg eleven thirty.

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00:24:32,600 --> 00:24:35,760
Speaker 10: Alex Steel here alongside Paul Sweeney. This is Bloomberg Intelligence Radio.

468
00:24:35,920 --> 00:24:39,600
Speaker 10: We are broadcasting to live from our Renactive Broker Studio Interactive.

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00:24:39,640 --> 00:24:41,760
Speaker 10: I don't know what word I said, but Interactive Broker

470
00:24:41,800 --> 00:24:44,800
Speaker 10: Studio works right here in midtown Manhattan.

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Speaker 3: So NI video was.

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00:24:46,080 --> 00:24:48,800
Speaker 10: Being billed as like the market mover for the rest

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00:24:48,840 --> 00:24:51,040
Speaker 10: of the year, that it was more important than the Fed,

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00:24:51,080 --> 00:24:53,240
Speaker 10: it was more important than any jobs data or inflation.

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00:24:53,400 --> 00:24:56,040
Speaker 10: But now it's over. So now what David khod Love

476
00:24:56,080 --> 00:24:59,560
Speaker 10: founder's CEO and chief investment strategist at Mainstay Capital Management.

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00:24:59,560 --> 00:25:02,399
Speaker 10: I joined now, So David, what now?

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Speaker 6: Like?

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00:25:02,640 --> 00:25:02,800
Speaker 10: Now?

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00:25:02,840 --> 00:25:05,160
Speaker 11: Are you focused on what now after?

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00:25:05,200 --> 00:25:08,159
Speaker 8: In na video that many have said might be more

482
00:25:08,200 --> 00:25:11,040
Speaker 8: important to the markets than the Fed. But we do

483
00:25:11,119 --> 00:25:13,280
Speaker 8: have PCE coming up at the end of the month

484
00:25:13,359 --> 00:25:18,160
Speaker 8: PEC for October, and then we'll get CPI and another

485
00:25:18,240 --> 00:25:21,240
Speaker 8: round of data here in early December. And I think,

486
00:25:21,520 --> 00:25:23,280
Speaker 8: you know, for the FED, as far as the FED

487
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Speaker 8: is concerned, they're kind of between a rock and a

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Speaker 8: hard place. They have, you know, since September when we

489
00:25:29,240 --> 00:25:32,000
Speaker 8: were looking at more than two hundred basis points and

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00:25:32,040 --> 00:25:37,119
Speaker 8: cuts by this time next year, we've had Unemployment has improved,

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00:25:37,320 --> 00:25:42,000
Speaker 8: it has gotten lower, Growth is stronger, Inflation has crept

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00:25:42,080 --> 00:25:44,760
Speaker 8: up a little bit. On the flip side of that,

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Speaker 8: if we look at personal bankruptcies, we look at auto delinquencies,

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00:25:50,320 --> 00:25:53,119
Speaker 8: on auto loans, credit card debt, those are all at

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00:25:53,280 --> 00:25:57,920
Speaker 8: multi year decade highs. So there's cracks in the economy.

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Speaker 8: There's things to be concerned about. But in terms of

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Speaker 8: some of the other factors that the FED looks at,

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Speaker 8: I think it's I think there's a lean towards not

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Speaker 8: not cutting in December, and the markets won't like that. So,

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Speaker 8: you know, I think we're in for some volatility. We've

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00:26:15,600 --> 00:26:18,840
Speaker 8: had a great twenty twenty two and twenty three, and

502
00:26:18,880 --> 00:26:21,760
Speaker 8: I think we're in for some volatility in twenty I'm sorry,

503
00:26:21,760 --> 00:26:24,480
Speaker 8: twenty three and twenty four, and in for some volatility

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00:26:24,480 --> 00:26:25,120
Speaker 8: in twenty five.

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Speaker 2: David, it was two weeks ago yesterday that we all

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00:26:28,800 --> 00:26:31,000
Speaker 2: woke up to a new president. We now know that

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00:26:31,040 --> 00:26:35,919
Speaker 2: we have a Republican controlled Senate and House. Did that

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Speaker 2: change your outlook or the way you approach markets or

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00:26:38,720 --> 00:26:41,040
Speaker 2: maybe how you allocate assets here?

510
00:26:42,280 --> 00:26:46,920
Speaker 8: Yeah, you know, we always say and we educate our clients,

511
00:26:47,600 --> 00:26:49,600
Speaker 8: and the thing that we try to make sure is

512
00:26:49,640 --> 00:26:54,440
Speaker 8: that clients or in investors in general, there's a tendency

513
00:26:54,480 --> 00:26:57,520
Speaker 8: to go to cash in an election year because they want

514
00:26:57,520 --> 00:27:01,159
Speaker 8: to wait and see what happens in election and inevitably,

515
00:27:01,200 --> 00:27:05,120
Speaker 8: election years turned out to be very good on average.

516
00:27:05,160 --> 00:27:08,119
Speaker 8: This one the best election year since nineteen thirty six.

517
00:27:08,480 --> 00:27:10,520
Speaker 8: But what we do want to do is look through

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00:27:11,720 --> 00:27:15,560
Speaker 8: to what we have for Congress and the executive branch

519
00:27:15,600 --> 00:27:19,719
Speaker 8: and what that means as tactical asset allocators and the

520
00:27:19,720 --> 00:27:23,280
Speaker 8: big wild card for next year is tariffs and what

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00:27:23,320 --> 00:27:26,080
Speaker 8: that mean in terms of a trade war. We know

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00:27:26,160 --> 00:27:29,760
Speaker 8: what that brought in in twenty sixteen in President Trump's

523
00:27:29,800 --> 00:27:30,359
Speaker 8: first term.

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Speaker 11: So there is some concern.

525
00:27:33,119 --> 00:27:38,120
Speaker 8: That with tariffs that's also going to be problematic for inflation.

526
00:27:39,280 --> 00:27:42,000
Speaker 8: How much of what was campaign rhetoric versus how much

527
00:27:42,040 --> 00:27:44,760
Speaker 8: of it will go into effect.

528
00:27:45,000 --> 00:27:46,359
Speaker 11: They seem pretty serious about it.

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00:27:46,400 --> 00:27:51,440
Speaker 8: Howard Lutnak, who was named Commerce Secretary, he's almost self

530
00:27:51,480 --> 00:27:56,040
Speaker 8: proclaimed tariffs are so I think there's going to be

531
00:27:56,119 --> 00:27:58,280
Speaker 8: a run at it. What that results in terms of

532
00:27:58,320 --> 00:28:02,800
Speaker 8: trade wars, the industry that effects versus others, that'll be very.

533
00:28:02,720 --> 00:28:04,320
Speaker 11: Important for market participants.

534
00:28:04,800 --> 00:28:07,760
Speaker 10: When you mentioned there was going to be more volatility,

535
00:28:08,119 --> 00:28:10,880
Speaker 10: what assets do you think will have the most volatility?

536
00:28:10,960 --> 00:28:13,440
Speaker 10: What do you're looking at, say, politics, as you mentioned,

537
00:28:13,480 --> 00:28:16,320
Speaker 10: you also talked about potentially skipping a cut in December.

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Speaker 10: Where do we see the most action?

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00:28:19,200 --> 00:28:24,399
Speaker 8: Well, we're seeing a lot of volatility in bonds we

540
00:28:24,440 --> 00:28:29,160
Speaker 8: already have this year. Interestingly enough, is the Fed cut

541
00:28:29,320 --> 00:28:32,160
Speaker 8: the first time they've now cut seventy five basis points.

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00:28:32,240 --> 00:28:34,640
Speaker 11: During that timeframe, both the.

543
00:28:34,960 --> 00:28:37,199
Speaker 8: Ten year and thirty year have gone up about seventy

544
00:28:37,200 --> 00:28:41,880
Speaker 8: five basis points, which is that counterintuitive reaction function. So

545
00:28:41,920 --> 00:28:44,600
Speaker 8: we've seen really a lot of volatility in the bond market,

546
00:28:45,280 --> 00:28:47,680
Speaker 8: but we'll see we think we'll see increased volatility in

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00:28:47,680 --> 00:28:51,360
Speaker 8: the stock market because even though the election is behind us,

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00:28:51,360 --> 00:28:54,800
Speaker 8: now that uncertainty is behind us, we have the uncertainty

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Speaker 8: over tariffs and just how aggressive some of these moves

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00:28:58,080 --> 00:29:02,680
Speaker 8: will be. Even when we talk about eliminating or significantly

551
00:29:02,720 --> 00:29:07,720
Speaker 8: reducing government agencies, what that would mean to unemployment. So

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00:29:08,120 --> 00:29:10,920
Speaker 8: there's just a lot of new factors to look at

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00:29:11,120 --> 00:29:15,640
Speaker 8: in terms of overall investment strategy that will be driving

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00:29:15,720 --> 00:29:18,520
Speaker 8: volatility into both bonds and stocks. We don't think about

555
00:29:18,600 --> 00:29:21,640
Speaker 8: volatility a lot for bonds, but we've seen a great

556
00:29:21,680 --> 00:29:24,240
Speaker 8: deal if we look at the move index, which is

557
00:29:24,320 --> 00:29:27,360
Speaker 8: like the VICS for stocks, bonds have been quite volatile,

558
00:29:27,440 --> 00:29:30,680
Speaker 8: they'll continue to be, and we think we'll see more

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00:29:30,760 --> 00:29:32,560
Speaker 8: volatility in the stock market.

560
00:29:33,360 --> 00:29:36,200
Speaker 2: So we started off David by just chatting about in Nvidia.

561
00:29:36,600 --> 00:29:38,440
Speaker 2: I thought the numbers were pretty solid, but of course

562
00:29:38,520 --> 00:29:40,280
Speaker 2: the expectations were just massive.

563
00:29:40,360 --> 00:29:40,640
Speaker 11: Here.

564
00:29:41,960 --> 00:29:44,440
Speaker 2: What did you learn, if anything, last night from Nvidia's

565
00:29:44,480 --> 00:29:47,880
Speaker 2: results that maybe change or affirm.

566
00:29:47,640 --> 00:29:49,240
Speaker 3: Your kind of your thoughts on technology.

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00:29:50,240 --> 00:29:51,200
Speaker 11: Well, first of all.

568
00:29:51,360 --> 00:29:54,280
Speaker 8: You know, Navidia is if you talk about a company

569
00:29:54,280 --> 00:29:57,800
Speaker 8: that has a very wide mode around it because of

570
00:29:58,000 --> 00:30:01,680
Speaker 8: Generative AI and their place in that, it's it's Navidia.

571
00:30:03,040 --> 00:30:05,920
Speaker 8: They beat top line and bottom line should have been

572
00:30:05,920 --> 00:30:10,120
Speaker 8: a good report, you know. But the problem is investors

573
00:30:10,200 --> 00:30:14,360
Speaker 8: have become accustomed to these blowout numbers, just blowout numbers

574
00:30:14,360 --> 00:30:17,040
Speaker 8: for Navidia that they've had in past quarters. So it's

575
00:30:17,080 --> 00:30:19,320
Speaker 8: a little bit of a let down on the size

576
00:30:19,320 --> 00:30:19,800
Speaker 8: of the beat.

577
00:30:21,040 --> 00:30:22,520
Speaker 11: The stocks sold off.

578
00:30:22,880 --> 00:30:26,880
Speaker 8: Uh and and UH after I was trading pre market

579
00:30:26,920 --> 00:30:28,920
Speaker 8: was down and it's it's come back a little bit.

580
00:30:28,960 --> 00:30:31,680
Speaker 8: But the bottom line is Navidia still has a long

581
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Speaker 8: run way.

582
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Speaker 11: Ahead of it.

583
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Speaker 10: Uh.

584
00:30:33,760 --> 00:30:37,640
Speaker 8: And the you know, their new gener A chip is

585
00:30:37,640 --> 00:30:42,200
Speaker 8: is doing well, and I think that it still makes

586
00:30:42,240 --> 00:30:43,800
Speaker 8: sense as part of a portfolio.

587
00:30:45,440 --> 00:30:49,040
Speaker 10: What about bitcoin? Are you on the bitcoin bold train here?

588
00:30:50,360 --> 00:30:53,959
Speaker 8: Yeah? The you know the interesting thing about bitcoin is, uh,

589
00:30:54,280 --> 00:30:58,160
Speaker 8: those that have been bearish on bitcoin, fake internet money,

590
00:30:58,360 --> 00:31:00,880
Speaker 8: it'll eventually go to zero pons scheme whatever.

591
00:31:02,040 --> 00:31:04,280
Speaker 11: They've been humbled, right, they've been humbled.

592
00:31:05,720 --> 00:31:10,680
Speaker 8: Bitcoin is as we've said, it's here to stay. It

593
00:31:10,760 --> 00:31:14,560
Speaker 8: may be an asset class all and of itself, but

594
00:31:14,760 --> 00:31:18,520
Speaker 8: just looking at what's happened here since the election, the

595
00:31:19,560 --> 00:31:23,200
Speaker 8: talk of a strategic bitcoin reserve. You had a segment

596
00:31:23,200 --> 00:31:25,280
Speaker 8: earlier on the show about it. You know, these are

597
00:31:25,560 --> 00:31:28,240
Speaker 8: President Trump wants to call himself the bitcoin president.

598
00:31:29,480 --> 00:31:32,760
Speaker 11: So we're seeing, we're seeing the.

599
00:31:32,160 --> 00:31:35,800
Speaker 8: Asset or the asset class of justin bitcoin by itself,

600
00:31:35,840 --> 00:31:39,520
Speaker 8: not the other coins, is rising on that speculation. And

601
00:31:39,880 --> 00:31:43,480
Speaker 8: we look at it like gold, really if it's digital gold.

602
00:31:44,000 --> 00:31:46,360
Speaker 8: Gold doesn't have a price to earnings ratio. It doesn't

603
00:31:46,360 --> 00:31:49,640
Speaker 8: have a dividend yield. Bitcoin does neither. There is more

604
00:31:49,680 --> 00:31:52,960
Speaker 8: gold that can be mined bitcoin. There's a fixed amount.

605
00:31:53,160 --> 00:31:55,200
Speaker 2: Right David, Thank you so much for joining us. Always

606
00:31:55,200 --> 00:31:57,200
Speaker 2: appreciate getting a few minutes of your time, David Coudlah.

607
00:31:57,200 --> 00:32:00,320
Speaker 2: He's a founder, chief executive officer, and chief investment OFFSTA.

608
00:32:00,320 --> 00:32:03,400
Speaker 2: I guess I make Simon the boss at Mainstay Capital Management.

609
00:32:03,440 --> 00:32:04,000
Speaker 11: Appreciate that.

610
00:32:04,920 --> 00:32:09,440
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611
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612
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613
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614
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615
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