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Speaker 1: What's up, guys? How are you welcome into the Sunday

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Speaker 1: morning edition of the Deal Juice Podcast. My name is

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Speaker 1: Matt Paralch. You can follow me on Twitter at Sports

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Speaker 1: Talk Matt. You can follow us at Betting Pros NFL

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Speaker 1: also on Twitter if you want to do that. Bettingpros

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Speaker 1: dot com is where this podcast is every morning and

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Speaker 1: we're always being brought to you by bet MGM. All right, So,

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Speaker 1: if you were just a podcast listener, you liked yesterday

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Speaker 1: three and one. We did well on the podcast and

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Speaker 1: I was right to stay away from Alabama. I was

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Speaker 1: right to stay away from Clemson, and well, I guess

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Speaker 1: I didn't do that right. I guess I didn't stay

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Speaker 1: away from them. I teased then I got it wrong.

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Speaker 1: That was the only thing we got wrong in the podcast.

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Speaker 1: Yesterday was Notre Dame plus sixteen and a half. Florida

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Speaker 1: plus twenty three came in easily. They lost by six.

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Speaker 1: We got San Jose State with a nice victory outright

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Speaker 1: in the Mountain West Conference championship game that was good

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Speaker 1: at plus six and a half. As dogs, they went outright.

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Speaker 1: Texa A and M did exactly what we thought they

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Speaker 1: were going to do they put up a number and

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Speaker 1: they beat down Tennessee. So that was really good to

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Speaker 1: have that. So it's really fun when we see those

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Speaker 1: things come in for us. And then we got the

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Speaker 1: two team teaser, right, I guess that was like the

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Speaker 1: most popular bet of the day across the country was

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Speaker 1: Bills to a pick in green Bay down to minus two.

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Speaker 1: Green Bay wins by eight. Now it stinks for me

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Speaker 1: because I took in the Westgate Super Contest, which I'm

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Speaker 1: trying to win the thing. We took green Bay minus

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Speaker 1: eight and a half, and I was so nervous about

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Speaker 1: Teddy Bridgewater and I was so nervous Matt Rule kicking

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Speaker 1: that field goal was so damning. It was just like, ugh,

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Speaker 1: what are you doing? It caught me again. That's the

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Speaker 1: second time that's happened to me this season in football,

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Speaker 1: where I need an eight eight and a half or

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Speaker 1: whatever it may be, and the coach just kicks a

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Speaker 1: field goal, then does the onside kick comes nowhere near

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Speaker 1: getting it and so I lose on the hook. That

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Speaker 1: was brutal, but it wasn't a money bet. It was

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Speaker 1: a Westgate bet. By start the week oh and one

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Speaker 1: in the Westgate and that's not good because that means

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Speaker 1: I need to go four to oh in the Westgate

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Speaker 1: Super Contest. Basically, to go four and one to keep

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Speaker 1: ourselves in contention. Here. Week fifteen, sixteen and seventeen is

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Speaker 1: so hard in the NFL. It is just today's tough. Okay.

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Speaker 1: I've got not one but two teasers today to talk about,

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Speaker 1: and I've got two sides that I'm gonna give you

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Speaker 1: guys today here on the Daly Juice Podcast. But like

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Speaker 1: I said, three and one, we were up to units

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Speaker 1: on the Discord chat. I gave it all back. So

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Speaker 1: I did a couple of half unit bets in a

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Speaker 1: full unit bet and it just went or. So I

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Speaker 1: did a San Jose State Alabama teaser for one un

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Speaker 1: and that didn't hit. I did an Alabama half a

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Speaker 1: unit wager and that didn't hit. Bama mon is sixteen

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Speaker 1: and I did a half a unit on Canelo to

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Speaker 1: go under because I got a text message from someone saying, Hey,

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Speaker 1: a lot of people are on this. You know Canelo under.

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Speaker 1: The fight's not going the distance. Somehow Smith was able

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Speaker 1: to stay. I didn't watch the fight, I just followed

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Speaker 1: it on Twitter. Canelo dominated, I guess and didn't finish,

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Speaker 1: so I gave everything back. I was up, I was

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Speaker 1: feeling good. Gave it all back. So that was frustrating

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Speaker 1: and annoying. And I had a lot going yesterday. I

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Speaker 1: had a lot in play yesterday, more than I wanted to,

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Speaker 1: and I said I was gonna go kind of light,

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Speaker 1: and I ended up having more units in play floating

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Speaker 1: around that I really was comfortable with it. I didn't

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Speaker 1: like it, but fine flat for you know, up for

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Speaker 1: the podcast, which is good, so we get that. That's

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Speaker 1: nice to get a winning day in the podcast, to

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Speaker 1: go three and one, but not where I wanted it

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Speaker 1: by any stretch imagination. And a frustrating day for me,

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Speaker 1: not for you guys in just the podcast, but a

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Speaker 1: frustrating day for me as we head towards a Sunday.

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Speaker 1: So let's talk philosophy here for a little bit, and

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Speaker 1: let's talk Oh, the other thing could pissed me off.

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Speaker 1: I bet Gonzaga minus three, but I didn't trust it

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Speaker 1: enough to give it to you guys in the podcast,

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Speaker 1: and I didn't give it on the discord. I didn't

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Speaker 1: I hit that bet. So I got Gonzaga right yesterday

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Speaker 1: minus three against Iowa and I didn't trust myself enough,

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Speaker 1: and I was told, I mean it was really, I

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Speaker 1: was told, here's where I'm at right now. I guess

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Speaker 1: this is why I'm so frustrated. This has like a

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Speaker 1: personal rant for me. You guys don't care about this, really,

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Speaker 1: But I had Gonzaga mines three and I had Clemson

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Speaker 1: minus ten, and I had been talking to people all

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Speaker 1: week who are telling me Florida, Florida, Florida, Notre Dame,

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Speaker 1: Notre Dame, Notre Dame, over and over and over again.

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Speaker 1: I kept on going, really, I don't know, man, Clemson.

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Speaker 1: I wanted to bet Bama in the first half. I

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Speaker 1: wanted to bet Bama team total. Everyone keeps on saying

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Speaker 1: that Florda's gonna keep the game closed, it's gonna be

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Speaker 1: lower scoring. And then what really threw me was, did

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Speaker 1: you guys see what happened? How many dogs covered in

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Speaker 1: the championship games? And then how many unders came in

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Speaker 1: the MAC went under, the PAC twelve went under, the

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Speaker 1: Big ten went under, the Big twelve went under. In

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Speaker 1: the ACC all went under. The only over was Alabama

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Speaker 1: Florida in the SEC championship game of the Big Ones.

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Speaker 1: That's crazy. Everyone. I mean, remember I said, like Lumberjack weekend.

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Speaker 1: Remember that. I'm kind of glad that I didn't really

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Speaker 1: follow through heavily on that because it was a dog

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Speaker 1: day afternoon. Man, it would have been really ugly for me.

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Speaker 1: I would have gotten crushed if I had gone and

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Speaker 1: just bet all favors like the guy was going to.

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Speaker 1: So I dodged a little bit of a bullet by

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Speaker 1: doing that. But Alabama doesn't cover. Clemson does. But everybody

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Speaker 1: was under Dame and so nor Dame didn't cover Bama.

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Speaker 1: First half comes in, there were a lot of people

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Speaker 1: on Florida in the first half catching that ten points

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Speaker 1: and that didn't happen. Bama was up huge, and then

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Speaker 1: second half have everything kind of fell apart for Alabama defensively,

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Speaker 1: and Kyle Trascan company were able to get the game

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Speaker 1: all the way down under seven to a six point win.

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Speaker 1: So it destroyed everything. It detroyed all the teasers. Only

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Speaker 1: didn't cover was a money well, all the money line parlays,

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Speaker 1: and I'm sure the book got hit pretty hard if

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Speaker 1: you went ahead and bet just who you thought was

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Speaker 1: gonna win. There weren't any upsets Cincinnati one, Clemson won

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Speaker 1: Alabama won. I mean, I guess if you had included

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Speaker 1: Boise with the in the Mountain West Championship, you would

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Speaker 1: have lost that with that money line parlay. But you

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Speaker 1: bet the big boys, you know, Ohio State to win.

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Speaker 1: Ohio State didn't cover either, so Northwestern covered, so Florida

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Speaker 1: the Florida covers, Northwestern covers. So you know, just it

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Speaker 1: was a crazy day and that would that kind of

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Speaker 1: leads me into being a little bit cautious today here

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Speaker 1: with the NFL SO four plays for you. But a

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Speaker 1: reminder on the live stream where Dan Harris's projections, his

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Speaker 1: player props become my player props. I bet Dan Harris's

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Speaker 1: player props, and that we give out here on the

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Speaker 1: discord Chat live stream every Sunday morning at eleven am

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Speaker 1: Eastern eight am Pacific time. So after you're done listening

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Speaker 1: to this podcast, definitely swing on over to the live stream,

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Speaker 1: ask questions, interact with your front your fellow gambler, and

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Speaker 1: Daily Jude's listener. We are over two thy two hundred

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Speaker 1: people by the way on the discord Chat, which is

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Speaker 1: just awesome. So again I'm not going to add anything

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Speaker 1: tomorrow today in the discord Chat I'm gonna take a

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Speaker 1: break from doing that because well, i mean, I'm one

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Speaker 1: zero to three, but I'm also not firing on bets.

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Speaker 1: I've done a ton of research on a lot of

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Speaker 1: times there are things I'm stumbling upon and people are

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Speaker 1: giving me picks and plays and whatnot. So I'm gonna

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Speaker 1: kind of limit myself a little bit here on a Sunday,

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Speaker 1: kind of turtle a little bit and just kind of

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Speaker 1: get through this day and get through this weekend. I

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Speaker 1: know Week sixteen and Week seventeen in the NFL are

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Speaker 1: really hard, but Week fifteen could be really really tough.

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Speaker 1: So let's get into that here in just one second.

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Speaker 1: which is almost guaranteed in an NFL football game. We

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Speaker 1: don't know about Pennsylvania by the way, we're waiting and

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Speaker 1: checking in on this, but this is valid for people

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Speaker 1: Please gamble responsibly. Gambling problem called one one hundred and

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Speaker 1: hundred gambler in New Jersey in West Virginia, or one

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Speaker 1: hundred and nine with it in Indiana. Okay, let's start

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Speaker 1: four plays, all one unit going into the NFL. Let's

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Speaker 1: talk about my New England Patriots, which might be the

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Speaker 1: sharp play. The weekend public is all over the Dolphins,

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Speaker 1: all right, Miami in TUA two in Miami. The Patriots

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Speaker 1: aren't going anywhere. Okay, they're not going anywhere. But and

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Speaker 1: there's a big old butt when it comes to the

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Speaker 1: Patriots in this game. Everyone's saying, well, they stink in

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Speaker 1: December one in four over the last five trips down there,

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Speaker 1: they lose. Patriots always lose. They always lay an egg.

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Speaker 1: It's always with Brady, by the way, right, and the

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Speaker 1: Patriots always have something riding on this game for the postseason,

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Speaker 1: and they always have something coming up, like there's a

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Speaker 1: big game in the next week. This has always been

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Speaker 1: a trap game for the Patriots. It's freezing cold, you

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Speaker 1: go to Miami. You're like, oh, this is great, it's warm,

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Speaker 1: it's Miami. Let's go. And they're distracted and they lose,

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Speaker 1: and they lose consistently. The problem right now with this

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Speaker 1: game is this is a different type of Patriot team.

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Speaker 1: Patriots aren't going to the postseason. The Buffalo bill has

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Speaker 1: just won the AFC East yesterday for the first time

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Speaker 1: since nineteen ninety five. The Patriots are not mathematically eliminated,

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Speaker 1: but now they're playing for pride and they're playing for jobs.

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Speaker 1: So let's talk about injuries, because there are a lot

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Speaker 1: of injuries talk about here with the Miami Dolphins. And

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Speaker 1: this is probably the biggest reason why the Patriots, I think,

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Speaker 1: win this game outrights. It is a laundry list. Mike

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Speaker 1: Giseki is doubtful with a bad shoulder injury, trying to

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Speaker 1: they're trying to get him to go. DeVante Parker is

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Speaker 1: questionable with a hamstring injury. He probably won't go. Kyle

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Speaker 1: van Noy is questionable with a hip injury. You know,

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Speaker 1: he wants to play against his former team, but we

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Speaker 1: don't know yet about him. There are like no running

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Speaker 1: backs available for this game. You know, it's really kind

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Speaker 1: of crazy. Miles Gaskin's on the IR, Malcolm Perry's on

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Speaker 1: the IR. They're gonna try to roll out a couple

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Speaker 1: of different running backs off practice squads and whatnot to

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Speaker 1: a tag of Aloa is gonna have a tough time here.

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Speaker 1: Belichick dominates rookie quarterbacks, but Tua needs receivers, and even

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Speaker 1: when he had these receivers, they're not great at getting separation.

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Speaker 1: Two has been very fortunate because his defense is tremendous

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Speaker 1: and his defense causes turnovers. If the Patriots turn the

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Speaker 1: football over, this could be a danger spot. This could

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Speaker 1: be a win for the Miami Dolphins. We have seen

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Speaker 1: the Patriots and Cam Newton turn the football over quite

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Speaker 1: a bit in tough spots. But much like I saw

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Speaker 1: it going into the Chargers game, and much like I

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Speaker 1: saw going into the Rams game, Patriots win. They blow

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Speaker 1: out the Chargers. I had the Rams to blow out

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Speaker 1: the Patriots and it happened. This is a spot for

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Speaker 1: the Patriots to win this game. I'm gonna take the

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Speaker 1: one and a half. But if you want the money line,

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Speaker 1: go ahead. It's only one plus one oh seven, one ten,

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Speaker 1: somewhere in that range. Patriots plus one and a half

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Speaker 1: or Patriots on the money line. Either way, I'm betting

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Speaker 1: them both, okay, but officially, let's just go for the podcast.

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Speaker 1: Let's just go ahead and take the one and a

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Speaker 1: half points here just in case. So Patriots plus one

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Speaker 1: and a half, all right on the road at the

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Speaker 1: Miami Dolphins. Patriots win the game. I believe against Miami.

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Speaker 1: I think two is gonna have a rough day. The

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Speaker 1: Patriots will find ways to make enough plays with special

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Speaker 1: teams and turnovers, confusing Tua, interceptions and whatnot. I get

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Speaker 1: the Patriots. The public's all over the Dolphins. That's fine.

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Speaker 1: We're going Patriots plus one and a half for the

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Speaker 1: first play, play number two. They ask me every week

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Speaker 1: every week bettingpros dot COM's are betting pros Instagram. It's

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Speaker 1: betting pros NFL on Instagram. I believe the handle. What's

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Speaker 1: your play? What's your favorite play? I didn't have one

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Speaker 1: this week. I went back and forth. I didn't want

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Speaker 1: to pick the Patriots, because I do think it's sort

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Speaker 1: of a coin flip. It's a gut feeling. But the

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Speaker 1: other game that I like a lot from a side perspective,

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Speaker 1: the Vikings at home against the Bears. I don't think

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Speaker 1: Tribetsky is good. Mitchell Trubtsky's having this like resurrection and

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Speaker 1: everyone's like, oh no, the Bears here they come, their

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Speaker 1: play and great. They scored twenty nine points against the Texans.

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Speaker 1: You know, the Bears before that had failed to cover

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Speaker 1: in four straight games. And now you're telling me they're

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Speaker 1: going on the road and the Bears are just three

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Speaker 1: point dogs to Minnesota. That's it. Look, Minnesota is six

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Speaker 1: and seven to the numbers, so is Chicago. The Vikings

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Speaker 1: haven't been good either. Okay, they were three point home

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Speaker 1: favorites to Carolina, they won by one. They were three

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Speaker 1: point either are ten and a half point home favorites

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Speaker 1: to Jacksonville. They won by three. They were catching seven

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Speaker 1: points against Tampa last week and they lost by twelve.

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Speaker 1: That game was close, though, just kind of unraveled for them.

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Speaker 1: I think the Vikings are gonna run the football. I

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Speaker 1: think Mitchell Trubisky's gonna turn the football over and I

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Speaker 1: just think this is a Dalvin Cook game, and I

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Speaker 1: just think it's a game where Justin Jefferson, I think

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Speaker 1: has a big day catching the football, and I think

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Speaker 1: you're gonna see turnovers. The secondary for the Vikings is

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Speaker 1: starting to play better. I'm not trusting the Bears on

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Speaker 1: the road in a dome? Are you kidding me? Not?

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Speaker 1: Am I trust in Chicago? Here, I'm laying the three

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Speaker 1: with the Vikings. We're going minus three Vikings at home

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Speaker 1: against the Bears. I've already given you the official Paralt

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Speaker 1: two team teaser, which has now improved to ten and five.

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Speaker 1: We're going again today. We hit it yesterday, We're going

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Speaker 1: again today. All right, Paralt two team teaser is the

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Speaker 1: Patriots teased up to seven and a half, and I'm

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Speaker 1: taking Drew Brees and the Saints and I am going

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Speaker 1: to plus nine. I will not officially just me personally.

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Speaker 1: I've got money line sprinkling on the Saints. Okay, I

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Speaker 1: think the Saints gonna win the game out right against

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Speaker 1: the Chiefs. Seemingly nobody believes me and no one agrees

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Speaker 1: with me. But that's fine. I'm officially for the podcast.

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Speaker 1: We're putting it as part of the parult two team

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Speaker 1: teaser Saints plus nine, Pats plus seven and a half.

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Speaker 1: I think Chiefs could win by seven, Patriots could lose

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Speaker 1: by seven. I think we're okay there, we're crossing key numbers.

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Speaker 1: I would love it to get to ten, but we're

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Speaker 1: not gonna get to ten. Where he gets nine. It's

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Speaker 1: the money's actually coming on the Saints. It's two and

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Speaker 1: a half right now, so we've got a little bit

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Speaker 1: of value there getting to nine because it would be

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Speaker 1: and half. So that's the Parolt official two team teaser

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Speaker 1: Saints plus nine and Patriots plus seven and a half.

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Speaker 1: And I've got one more teaser as well going today,

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Speaker 1: and that is the Bucks from six and a half

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Speaker 1: down to five and the Seahawks from six and a

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Speaker 1: half down to point five, not five point five. Scuse me.

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Speaker 1: So Bucks plus misus half a point, Seahawks misus half

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Speaker 1: a point. Just basically Bucks win, Seahawks win. Essentially, that's

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Speaker 1: what we're going with here. Okay, need the Bucks to

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Speaker 1: play well against Tampa. It's a little bit of a

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Speaker 1: trap game, but I just I think they just make

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Speaker 1: more plays than Atlanta. I don't care if Ulio plays

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Speaker 1: or not. I just think Tampa makes more plays. Tough game,

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Speaker 1: hard fought game. I think they make more plays. They

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Speaker 1: don't cover the six and a half, but they win

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Speaker 1: the game. Same thing here for the Seahawks. I think

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Speaker 1: this is a trap line. Okay, Washington's got Dwayne Haskins.

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Speaker 1: Washington has got no Antonio Gibson. I don't know how

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Speaker 1: Washington scores. I have no clue how they score. But

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Speaker 1: in case, Dwayne Haskins sets the world on fire and

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Speaker 1: all of a sudden, it's like, oh my gosh, it's

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Speaker 1: like Marcus Mariota for the Raiders on whatever night, whatever

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Speaker 1: night that was Monday night or whatever night that was.

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Speaker 1: All of a sudden, it's like, whoa wait o Thursday, sorry,

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Speaker 1: Thursday night. It's like, my goodness, look at the backup quarterback.

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Speaker 1: Just in case, okay, just in case I'm wrong about that.

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Speaker 1: And Seattle turns the football over and that defensive front

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Speaker 1: goes after and eats and Russell can't score. They win

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Speaker 1: by three. I'll tea it down to half a point.

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Speaker 1: So those are two teasers I've got going today. It's again,

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Speaker 1: I don't love this card. I went into this week

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Speaker 1: really liking this card. If you listen to Dan harrison

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Speaker 1: I's podcast that we do every week, the NFL podcast

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Speaker 1: off of Betting Pros. I mean, I said, oh my,

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Speaker 1: I like the card. I thought I did. I really

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Speaker 1: I really thought I did. And then you know, I

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Speaker 1: started listening, reading, watching, and I got less and less

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Speaker 1: in And then what I watched yesterday was the books

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Speaker 1: got hit pretty hard on some things, including that teaser

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Speaker 1: that we hit the Green Bay and Bill's teaser, Bill's covering,

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Speaker 1: and then the Panthers coming in on the hook. But

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Speaker 1: it was an expensive Saturday for the books for a

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Speaker 1: lot of stuff, not really in the Chip Ship Games,

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Speaker 1: just in the NFL. So I was a little concerned, like, uh, oh,

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Speaker 1: could this be a book type of Sunday? And then

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Speaker 1: everyone's getting crushed because oh, I'm gonna lay the wood

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Speaker 1: here with the Rams, because the Rams are gonna kill

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Speaker 1: the Jets, right, It's like, oh, it's a you know,

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna come in with Cleveland minus four and a half,

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Speaker 1: five and a half, six and a half whatever it is, right, Oh,

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Speaker 1: Cleveland's gonna kill the Giants. It's in prime time route,

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Speaker 1: right eh, you know, Okay, the Texans are gonna keep

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Speaker 1: it close against the Colts because they should have won

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Speaker 1: the game the last time, and then the fumble for

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Speaker 1: John Watson on the two yard line. We were lucky

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Speaker 1: to cover in that game. But what happens now? Watched

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Speaker 1: the Colts destroy the Texans. So I mean, I mean,

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Speaker 1: I've looked at the Cowboys at plus three as home

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Speaker 1: dogs against San Francisco skunk there, like, why is San Francisco,

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Speaker 1: you know, favored by three? Dallas is at home? Like what?

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Speaker 1: So there's just a bunch of games up there. I

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Speaker 1: don't like this schedule. The more that I've kind of

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Speaker 1: kicked around and talked it out, I just stopped liking it.

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Speaker 1: I just don't like the schedule. So four plays, one unit.

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Speaker 1: Here's what we got going here on a Sunday. We

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Speaker 1: had a winning day yesterday. Let's try to get another

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Speaker 1: winning day here to close out Week fifteen or I

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Speaker 1: guess until Monday. But I mean, in Week fifteen of

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Speaker 1: the NFL, we only have This is what's so sad here.

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Speaker 1: This is our third to last regular season weekend of

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Speaker 1: NFL football. That stinks. We're now into the college football playoffs.

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Speaker 1: We're not gonna have college football now for a couple

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Speaker 1: of weeks, which stinks the Bowl games are starting. I

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Speaker 1: can tell you right now, unless we have nothing else

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Speaker 1: going on, my interest in Bowl games this year is zip.

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Speaker 1: I mean it is with opt out and players not

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Speaker 1: wanting to travel and COVID concerns and it's just a mess.

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Speaker 1: I mean, bowl games, bull season, Penn State opted out yesterday.

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Speaker 1: It's a mess. So I'm not gonna be heavily involved.

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Speaker 1: If there's nothing else to bet on, then fine. If

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Speaker 1: it's like that or preseason football, all right, sorry, preseason basketball.

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Speaker 1: I'll bet football over that any time of the week.

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Speaker 1: But I'm not in love with betting in the bowl

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Speaker 1: games right now. With where we are, so all right

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Speaker 1: to recap the plays. Patriots plus one and a half,

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Speaker 1: Vikings minus three, teaser Bucks half a point, Seahawks half

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Speaker 1: a point minus. Just win the game, both those two teams,

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Speaker 1: and then we've got so one favorite, one favorite teaser,

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Speaker 1: one dog teaser Saints plus nine, Patriots plus seven and

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Speaker 1: a half for one units. Those are the plays for

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Speaker 1: a Sunday's Daily Juice. Now remember the live stream eleven

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Speaker 1: am on the YouTube channel eight am Pacific time. I'll

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Speaker 1: be bright eyed and bushy tailed ready to go, giving

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Speaker 1: you guys plays breaking down the line movement, breaking down

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Speaker 1: any break news, and where the money is going. To

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Speaker 1: help you make planes and help you find the right side.

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Speaker 1: That's what we try to do. Whether you fade or

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Speaker 1: follow my plays, I'm trying to give you this much

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Speaker 1: info as possible to help you get to the right side.

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Speaker 1: Here for week fifteen in the NFL, my name is

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Speaker 1: Matt Pereltz. I will talk to you coming up here

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Speaker 1: throughout the morning on the YouTube channel for Bettingpros Bettingpros

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Speaker 1: dot com, for this website or for this podcast every morning.

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Speaker 1: That's the website, and we are always being brought to

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Speaker 1: you by betmgl