Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2: See the best idea. Well, the first thing is to say,
Speaker 2: where did the first half go?
Speaker 3: Wow?
Speaker 2: It seems, you know, frankly, the news slows so exhausting.
Speaker 2: Excuse me. It feels like a year in the first
Speaker 2: half of two thousand and twenty four. And of course
Speaker 2: we dive into the second half, I should say, looking
Speaker 2: at three massive tumultuous elections in France, we'll talk about
Speaker 2: that in a moment, the United Kingdom July fourth, and
Speaker 2: then of course all that's gone on in the United
Speaker 2: States in the last seventy two hours. Thanks to Jordan
Speaker 2: Fabian at the White House for giving us a morning
Speaker 2: brief of just the absolute mystery of what to do.
Speaker 2: I'm sort of centered on reading about the donors to
Speaker 2: the Democratic Party, the donors to President Biden. But I'm
Speaker 2: just saying that as an amateur, I don't have any
Speaker 2: strong pearls of wisdom. Thanks for the really intelligent comments
Speaker 2: out on YouTube today out in the live chat the
Speaker 2: minimum Snark. Appreciate that we're out on YouTube. Search and
Speaker 2: subscribe to Bloomberg Podcast. It's our new way to do it.
Speaker 2: I'll get the six month statistics here in a bit,
Speaker 2: and we're just humbled by the response. Today we're gonna
Speaker 2: go to France and then bring it on back to
Speaker 2: the stock market. Alan Katz is one of the true
Speaker 2: reporters of Bloomberg, very important in finance and particularly in
Speaker 2: finance reform, the criminal intent reporting of finance. And I
Speaker 2: guess that's how you wrangle yourself into the most coveted
Speaker 2: job in all of Bloomberg News, which is Paris Bureau chief.
Speaker 2: This is I mean, Eric, you just can't believe it.
Speaker 2: It's his gorgeous set of doors two blocks down from
Speaker 2: Root on Ruskreb, from the opera house, beautiful offices you
Speaker 2: go out for, you know, I mean, the lunch is
Speaker 2: there short, lunch is two hours. I mean, it's a
Speaker 2: tough life. But within that Alan Katz, like everyone else
Speaker 2: in France right now, working eighteen hour days on this election.
Speaker 2: Alan Katz, now are Paris Bureau Chief on the impact
Speaker 2: of the French people.
Speaker 3: If you're the financial markets, your best case scenario is
Speaker 3: nothing happens over the next three years. This is very
Speaker 3: hard for French people to accept the idea that you
Speaker 3: might spend a long time not legislating, not really doing anything.
Speaker 3: It's very different. You know, if you're American, that sort
Speaker 3: of you're like, well, actually, this way it's been for
Speaker 3: much of the time, for the last twenty or thirty years,
Speaker 3: but here it's not. France is sort of a semi
Speaker 3: presidential semi parliamentary system. Usually the government that's the executive branch,
Speaker 3: has a majority in Parliament and can basically pass whatever
Speaker 3: they want, and so you pass all sorts of laws
Speaker 3: if you were in a situation where you had a
Speaker 3: hung parlia, which has been more or less the case
Speaker 3: since Macon was re elected in twenty twenty two. He's
Speaker 3: had the largest single party, but he hasn't had no
Speaker 3: right majority, and that's really restricted the number of laws
Speaker 3: and the things he can do and how it can
Speaker 3: pass them. And if you had that case, like not much,
Speaker 3: you wouldn't really be able to do much. But that
Speaker 3: is not necessarily a bad thing, because France is actually
Speaker 3: pretty well run country. It's pretty organized. It would actually
Speaker 3: be rightly fine. The other thing that could happen is
Speaker 3: that the National Rally gets the majority and they could
Speaker 3: either do one of two things, either not that much
Speaker 3: or they might actually say, well, actually, now that we're
Speaker 3: in power, let's really try to do stuff.
Speaker 2: Confused so much, that's what I take out of it.
Speaker 2: I truly I saw a fantastic graphic today from the
Speaker 2: Financial Times of the first, second and third tier results
Speaker 2: of the election of yesterday, and I honestly didn't understand.
Speaker 2: I mean, I've been doing this for a few years
Speaker 2: and I did understand the chart. I just I literally
Speaker 2: did not understand what Alan Katz was talking about. I'm trying.
Speaker 2: Thank you to Lionel Laurant and all of our Paris
Speaker 2: News bureau, Carolyn Conan and others were just working NonStop
Speaker 2: and this incredible story on the stock market. We got
Speaker 2: to do a lot of this in July. Up. You know,
Speaker 2: it's a round number, up fifteen percent, all because of
Speaker 2: four stacks, you know, the drill. Cam Dawson gave us
Speaker 2: the first brief of the year, Cameron Dawson at Knew
Speaker 2: as Wealth. Here's Cameron Dawson on use of cash.
Speaker 4: The calculus for using debt in order to do share
Speaker 4: repurchases is less attractive at today's rates, But to your point,
Speaker 4: credit spreads are also extraordinarily tight, so you could take
Speaker 4: advantage of say, yes, my base yield is higher, but
Speaker 4: nobody really is demanding extra compensation for credit risk. The
Speaker 4: triple be to double be spread is actually tighter today
Speaker 4: than it was in twenty twenty one, showing just how
Speaker 4: price per perfection the credit market is.
Speaker 2: Cam Dawson and the equity markets framing out, you know what,
Speaker 2: the trends in place, solid earning, solid revenue, solid, this, this, this,
Speaker 2: and she's still on board with this. Equity market had
Speaker 2: a huge response on YouTube to the Intelligence Today of
Speaker 2: our guests Audrey Child, Friedman and Foreign Exchange with Bloomberg
Speaker 2: Intelligence and London and back to cam Dawson, some very
Speaker 2: kind words about how cam Dawson filters in the mathiness
Speaker 2: of equity analysis as well. And I said to her,
Speaker 2: I said, okay, you're down in Florida, you're a kid.
Speaker 2: How did you get into the acuity of equity market analysis?
Speaker 2: Cam Dawson on the books she read.
Speaker 4: More Money than God is a fantastic books of Ash
Speaker 4: Malaby about some of the great hedge fund investors. I
Speaker 4: think that books like Austerity, which is a fantastic book
Speaker 4: about politics and economics coming out of the year.
Speaker 2: For me, it was against the God. It's Peter Bernstein,
Speaker 2: you know, on risk and uncertainty.
Speaker 4: Wealth born wisdom Martin Biggs. Yeah, yeah, absolutely fascinating, talking
Speaker 4: about seeing through volatility. Essential reads.
Speaker 2: Some books there to get you going. My read of
Speaker 2: the summer at the top of the list is a
Speaker 2: book from two years ago, which is more important now
Speaker 2: to give you an idea. Nvidia doesn't show up until
Speaker 2: like page two hundred and fifty. Chip War. It's just
Speaker 2: a great, great book. It's a brilliant academic out of Tufts,
Speaker 2: Chris Miller. And the answer is I can't say enough.
Speaker 2: You got a kid at home board and they're all
Speaker 2: tiktocked up. Throw Chip War at them and say this
Speaker 2: is how and why you can do TikTok. It is
Speaker 2: a spectacular effort. I got a bunch of other books
Speaker 2: as well, but we'll leave it at that. We're too
Speaker 2: long today. It's six minutes as smart and the clock
Speaker 2: that we've got going, and I'm way over single best idea.
Speaker 2: Good morning, seven