WEBVTT - Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Alan Katz & Cam Dawson

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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<v Speaker 2>See the best idea. Well, the first thing is to say,

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<v Speaker 2>where did the first half go?

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<v Speaker 3>Wow?

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<v Speaker 2>It seems, you know, frankly, the news slows so exhausting.

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<v Speaker 2>Excuse me. It feels like a year in the first

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<v Speaker 2>half of two thousand and twenty four. And of course

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<v Speaker 2>we dive into the second half, I should say, looking

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<v Speaker 2>at three massive tumultuous elections in France, we'll talk about

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<v Speaker 2>that in a moment, the United Kingdom July fourth, and

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<v Speaker 2>then of course all that's gone on in the United

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<v Speaker 2>States in the last seventy two hours. Thanks to Jordan

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<v Speaker 2>Fabian at the White House for giving us a morning

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<v Speaker 2>brief of just the absolute mystery of what to do.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm sort of centered on reading about the donors to

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<v Speaker 2>the Democratic Party, the donors to President Biden. But I'm

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<v Speaker 2>just saying that as an amateur, I don't have any

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<v Speaker 2>strong pearls of wisdom. Thanks for the really intelligent comments

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<v Speaker 2>out on YouTube today out in the live chat the

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<v Speaker 2>minimum Snark. Appreciate that we're out on YouTube. Search and

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<v Speaker 2>subscribe to Bloomberg Podcast. It's our new way to do it.

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<v Speaker 2>I'll get the six month statistics here in a bit,

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<v Speaker 2>and we're just humbled by the response. Today we're gonna

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<v Speaker 2>go to France and then bring it on back to

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<v Speaker 2>the stock market. Alan Katz is one of the true

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<v Speaker 2>reporters of Bloomberg, very important in finance and particularly in

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<v Speaker 2>finance reform, the criminal intent reporting of finance. And I

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<v Speaker 2>guess that's how you wrangle yourself into the most coveted

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<v Speaker 2>job in all of Bloomberg News, which is Paris Bureau chief.

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<v Speaker 2>This is I mean, Eric, you just can't believe it.

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<v Speaker 2>It's his gorgeous set of doors two blocks down from

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<v Speaker 2>Root on Ruskreb, from the opera house, beautiful offices you

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<v Speaker 2>go out for, you know, I mean, the lunch is

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<v Speaker 2>there short, lunch is two hours. I mean, it's a

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<v Speaker 2>tough life. But within that Alan Katz, like everyone else

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<v Speaker 2>in France right now, working eighteen hour days on this election.

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<v Speaker 2>Alan Katz, now are Paris Bureau Chief on the impact

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<v Speaker 2>of the French people.

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<v Speaker 3>If you're the financial markets, your best case scenario is

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<v Speaker 3>nothing happens over the next three years. This is very

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<v Speaker 3>hard for French people to accept the idea that you

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<v Speaker 3>might spend a long time not legislating, not really doing anything.

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<v Speaker 3>It's very different. You know, if you're American, that sort

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<v Speaker 3>of you're like, well, actually, this way it's been for

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<v Speaker 3>much of the time, for the last twenty or thirty years,

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<v Speaker 3>but here it's not. France is sort of a semi

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<v Speaker 3>presidential semi parliamentary system. Usually the government that's the executive branch,

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<v Speaker 3>has a majority in Parliament and can basically pass whatever

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<v Speaker 3>they want, and so you pass all sorts of laws

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<v Speaker 3>if you were in a situation where you had a

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<v Speaker 3>hung parlia, which has been more or less the case

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<v Speaker 3>since Macon was re elected in twenty twenty two. He's

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<v Speaker 3>had the largest single party, but he hasn't had no

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<v Speaker 3>right majority, and that's really restricted the number of laws

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<v Speaker 3>and the things he can do and how it can

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<v Speaker 3>pass them. And if you had that case, like not much,

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<v Speaker 3>you wouldn't really be able to do much. But that

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<v Speaker 3>is not necessarily a bad thing, because France is actually

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<v Speaker 3>pretty well run country. It's pretty organized. It would actually

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<v Speaker 3>be rightly fine. The other thing that could happen is

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<v Speaker 3>that the National Rally gets the majority and they could

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<v Speaker 3>either do one of two things, either not that much

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<v Speaker 3>or they might actually say, well, actually, now that we're

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<v Speaker 3>in power, let's really try to do stuff.

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<v Speaker 2>Confused so much, that's what I take out of it.

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<v Speaker 2>I truly I saw a fantastic graphic today from the

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<v Speaker 2>Financial Times of the first, second and third tier results

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<v Speaker 2>of the election of yesterday, and I honestly didn't understand.

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<v Speaker 2>I mean, I've been doing this for a few years

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<v Speaker 2>and I did understand the chart. I just I literally

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<v Speaker 2>did not understand what Alan Katz was talking about. I'm trying.

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<v Speaker 2>Thank you to Lionel Laurant and all of our Paris

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<v Speaker 2>News bureau, Carolyn Conan and others were just working NonStop

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<v Speaker 2>and this incredible story on the stock market. We got

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<v Speaker 2>to do a lot of this in July. Up. You know,

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<v Speaker 2>it's a round number, up fifteen percent, all because of

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<v Speaker 2>four stacks, you know, the drill. Cam Dawson gave us

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<v Speaker 2>the first brief of the year, Cameron Dawson at Knew

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<v Speaker 2>as Wealth. Here's Cameron Dawson on use of cash.

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<v Speaker 4>The calculus for using debt in order to do share

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<v Speaker 4>repurchases is less attractive at today's rates, But to your point,

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<v Speaker 4>credit spreads are also extraordinarily tight, so you could take

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<v Speaker 4>advantage of say, yes, my base yield is higher, but

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<v Speaker 4>nobody really is demanding extra compensation for credit risk. The

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<v Speaker 4>triple be to double be spread is actually tighter today

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<v Speaker 4>than it was in twenty twenty one, showing just how

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<v Speaker 4>price per perfection the credit market is.

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<v Speaker 2>Cam Dawson and the equity markets framing out, you know what,

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<v Speaker 2>the trends in place, solid earning, solid revenue, solid, this, this, this,

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<v Speaker 2>and she's still on board with this. Equity market had

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<v Speaker 2>a huge response on YouTube to the Intelligence Today of

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<v Speaker 2>our guests Audrey Child, Friedman and Foreign Exchange with Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 2>Intelligence and London and back to cam Dawson, some very

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<v Speaker 2>kind words about how cam Dawson filters in the mathiness

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<v Speaker 2>of equity analysis as well. And I said to her,

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<v Speaker 2>I said, okay, you're down in Florida, you're a kid.

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<v Speaker 2>How did you get into the acuity of equity market analysis?

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<v Speaker 2>Cam Dawson on the books she read.

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<v Speaker 4>More Money than God is a fantastic books of Ash

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<v Speaker 4>Malaby about some of the great hedge fund investors. I

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<v Speaker 4>think that books like Austerity, which is a fantastic book

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<v Speaker 4>about politics and economics coming out of the year.

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<v Speaker 2>For me, it was against the God. It's Peter Bernstein,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, on risk and uncertainty.

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<v Speaker 4>Wealth born wisdom Martin Biggs. Yeah, yeah, absolutely fascinating, talking

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<v Speaker 4>about seeing through volatility. Essential reads.

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<v Speaker 2>Some books there to get you going. My read of

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<v Speaker 2>the summer at the top of the list is a

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<v Speaker 2>book from two years ago, which is more important now

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<v Speaker 2>to give you an idea. Nvidia doesn't show up until

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<v Speaker 2>like page two hundred and fifty. Chip War. It's just

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<v Speaker 2>a great, great book. It's a brilliant academic out of Tufts,

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<v Speaker 2>Chris Miller. And the answer is I can't say enough.

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<v Speaker 2>You got a kid at home board and they're all

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<v Speaker 2>tiktocked up. Throw Chip War at them and say this

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<v Speaker 2>is how and why you can do TikTok. It is

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<v Speaker 2>a spectacular effort. I got a bunch of other books

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<v Speaker 2>as well, but we'll leave it at that. We're too

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<v Speaker 2>long today. It's six minutes as smart and the clock

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<v Speaker 2>that we've got going, and I'm way over single best idea.

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<v Speaker 2>Good morning, seven