WEBVTT - Beating The Book: 2024 Q2 MLB Derivative Stats Show 0:00:03.640 --> 0:00:06.600 Wednesday morning, July third, twenty twenty four. It is the 0:00:06.600 --> 0:00:13.160 Beating the Book Podcast MLB Derivatives Q two with Mark Borchert. 0:00:13.240 --> 0:00:15.560 A tradition unlike any other. Literally, I said this the 0:00:15.640 --> 0:00:19.280 last time, the oldest of the Beating the Book series, 0:00:19.320 --> 0:00:22.520 even older than the megapod and guessing lines. How about 0:00:22.560 --> 0:00:25.640 that Mark porchrid from an undisclosed location in the desert 0:00:25.680 --> 0:00:26.880 at Base Winner. What's happening? 0:00:27.600 --> 0:00:30.920 Well, it's It's amazing that we've been around so long. Gil. 0:00:30.960 --> 0:00:33.120 It makes you feel kind of old. But you know 0:00:33.200 --> 0:00:35.400 what I remember, handicapping for whatever. 0:00:35.640 --> 0:00:38.240 When you bring that up, the two thousand and six 0:00:38.320 --> 0:00:41.960 World Series Rockies in Red Sox. Oh man, God, you 0:00:41.960 --> 0:00:43.480 know that was almost twenty years ago. 0:00:43.560 --> 0:00:44.680 Wow? 0:00:45.200 --> 0:00:47.280 Was that two thousand and six or seven? 0:00:50.440 --> 0:00:52.400 Two thousand and six? Yeah, because two. 0:00:52.280 --> 0:00:55.560 Thousand and seven, wasn't that that horrible Cardinals team that 0:00:55.640 --> 0:00:57.560 won the World Series? That might have been the worst 0:00:57.560 --> 0:00:59.040 team to ever win a World Series? 0:00:59.280 --> 0:01:01.440 That's right. I think they beat the Tigers that year. 0:01:01.560 --> 0:01:04.000 Yeah, But two thousand and six, the fact that the 0:01:04.040 --> 0:01:07.959 Colorado Rockies got to a World Series is just one 0:01:07.959 --> 0:01:09.440 of the more by the way, we talked about the 0:01:09.440 --> 0:01:15.280 most amazing feats in sports history. Given the troubles of 0:01:14.440 --> 0:01:17.560 h roster construction of a team in corse Field, the 0:01:17.560 --> 0:01:19.800 fact that they got to a World Series is sort 0:01:19.840 --> 0:01:22.479 of this under the radar incredible thing that happened in sports. 0:01:22.520 --> 0:01:24.639 And then I think the Red Sox swept them, didn't They. 0:01:25.640 --> 0:01:28.480 They did, and there was there was a Ubaldo Jimenez 0:01:28.520 --> 0:01:30.880 just pitched like I mean, he was lights out for 0:01:30.920 --> 0:01:33.960 two months. I remember just just wanting to dial into 0:01:34.000 --> 0:01:36.840 the radio to the serious for the games because he 0:01:36.920 --> 0:01:38.240 was he was a striking guys out. 0:01:38.240 --> 0:01:39.960 He was just amazing. And then the guy kind of 0:01:39.959 --> 0:01:40.560 fizzled out. 0:01:40.760 --> 0:01:44.720 That was the early part of that season. He was unbelievable. Yep, yeah, 0:01:44.920 --> 0:01:47.440 who could forget all right? So, for those who are 0:01:47.480 --> 0:01:49.160 new to this mark, and I have been doing this 0:01:49.480 --> 0:01:51.640 for more than a decade, we do a Q one, 0:01:51.720 --> 0:01:53.280 we do a Q two, we do a Q three, 0:01:53.280 --> 0:01:54.840 which is essentially and I get it. We're a little 0:01:54.880 --> 0:01:57.960 past the eighty one game mark, so we kind of 0:01:57.960 --> 0:02:00.240 missed it precisely. But we're still in the eighties here 0:02:00.200 --> 0:02:02.840 in the early eighties of games played, all Star breaks, 0:02:02.840 --> 0:02:05.880 still a week and a half away from Major League 0:02:05.880 --> 0:02:08.040 Baseball and we will do a Q three And essentially 0:02:08.080 --> 0:02:11.040 the point of this is not, hey, look at all 0:02:11.080 --> 0:02:13.080 these stats. The point of all this is, look at 0:02:13.080 --> 0:02:16.840 these stats. Is there something predictive about these moving forward 0:02:16.840 --> 0:02:18.400 that can help us in our bettings? Some are going 0:02:18.440 --> 0:02:20.680 to be just you know, moments in time narratives. But 0:02:20.760 --> 0:02:22.600 as we go from Q one to Q two, I 0:02:22.639 --> 0:02:26.400 think now these stats are much more robust, and we 0:02:26.440 --> 0:02:29.440 can say sustainable or unsustainable. That's the name of this game. 0:02:29.440 --> 0:02:32.480 And we crescendo to the more proprietary stats. We will 0:02:32.480 --> 0:02:35.600 get to first fives that will be preceded by umpires. 0:02:35.639 --> 0:02:39.800 Mark is a unbelievable resource of historical umpire data. So 0:02:39.840 --> 0:02:43.280 we'll look at the twenty twenty four umpire data and 0:02:43.600 --> 0:02:46.640 we'll sort of cross check it with Mark's historical ones. 0:02:46.880 --> 0:02:48.920 Then we'll do the first five stuff, and we'll also 0:02:49.000 --> 0:02:52.480 do first inning numbers for pitchers because people like betting 0:02:52.520 --> 0:02:55.120 first innings first. As always though, Mark, and thank you 0:02:55.200 --> 0:02:57.120 by the way, let me just say, because if we 0:02:57.200 --> 0:03:00.359 count these all up, this is god it We kinda 0:03:00.400 --> 0:03:05.240 have done like almost forty of these. It's just incredible. 0:03:06.240 --> 0:03:10.160 Spending the best years of our lives talking about quarterly baseball. 0:03:10.440 --> 0:03:12.399 You know what, I wouldn't want to be anywhere else 0:03:12.440 --> 0:03:15.240 actually on a beat to July third? 0:03:15.919 --> 0:03:16.919 Why not? Okay? 0:03:16.919 --> 0:03:18.480 And can we start with that before we get into 0:03:18.440 --> 0:03:22.080 the stats. How come Major League Baseball is this stupid mark? 0:03:22.360 --> 0:03:25.920 It's July third, it's a Wednesday. Every Wednesday has full 0:03:26.000 --> 0:03:29.840 day major League Baseball. Why just because it's July fourth tomorrow, 0:03:30.440 --> 0:03:32.200 did they decide we're not going to have any day 0:03:32.240 --> 0:03:33.960 games on July third? Why? 0:03:34.200 --> 0:03:35.720 It's the weirdest thing. 0:03:35.760 --> 0:03:37.480 You think they'd want to have more because I think 0:03:37.520 --> 0:03:40.200 they'll probably have some day games tomorrow on a Joy four, 0:03:40.280 --> 0:03:41.760 so it could give the guys, give the guys a 0:03:41.760 --> 0:03:44.160 little bit of extra rest. I don't understand that, And 0:03:44.160 --> 0:03:47.120 I don't understand in the summertime. And I love the 0:03:47.120 --> 0:03:50.040 Tuesday night card. It's a full card, but there's usually 0:03:50.160 --> 0:03:52.720 no day games on a Tuesday. So like, I mean, 0:03:52.840 --> 0:03:56.040 instead of betting on baseball, we're betting on euro Soccer. 0:03:56.400 --> 0:03:58.960 So I mean really like, like like putting it from 0:03:59.000 --> 0:04:01.320 a revenue perspective, if I think that that having a 0:04:01.320 --> 0:04:03.320 couple of day games on a Tuesday would be in 0:04:03.360 --> 0:04:05.000 the summertime, would be a good idea, Gil. 0:04:05.360 --> 0:04:06.839 We had a we had a tweet this morning where 0:04:06.840 --> 0:04:08.840 someone's like, well, because they want everybody, we want all 0:04:08.880 --> 0:04:11.240 these ballparks to have fireworks. That's why they're putting all 0:04:11.240 --> 0:04:12.760 the games at night. I go, but yeah, but there's 0:04:12.800 --> 0:04:14.840 day games on July fourth, So like that doesn't make 0:04:14.880 --> 0:04:17.520 any sense. Just flip them then, right, have some day 0:04:17.600 --> 0:04:21.039 today and those play night tomorrow and vice versa. I 0:04:21.120 --> 0:04:22.480 was saying early. I was joking on the on the 0:04:22.560 --> 0:04:25.080 radio side this morning. I was like, it's like Major 0:04:25.160 --> 0:04:27.599 League Baseball, like Rob Manfred's like, for god's sake, we 0:04:27.640 --> 0:04:30.200 have all the fans we need. Let's not do anything 0:04:30.400 --> 0:04:31.440 to get more fans. 0:04:31.560 --> 0:04:34.680 Oh, it's so it's so aggravating because they do a 0:04:34.720 --> 0:04:35.200 lot of things. 0:04:35.320 --> 0:04:38.960 First of all, let's let's pop up MLB dot Com. 0:04:39.000 --> 0:04:41.640 Wonderful way to take in baseball. You can watch four 0:04:41.680 --> 0:04:44.000 games at one time with different feeds audio. If you 0:04:44.080 --> 0:04:47.039 like the Braves radio broadcasters, which I really like, you 0:04:47.040 --> 0:04:48.840 can listen to them when you're betting a Braves game. 0:04:48.960 --> 0:04:51.520 So their technology is really getting me and from a 0:04:51.640 --> 0:04:54.479 from a data guy, from a processing guy, uh, the 0:04:54.480 --> 0:04:58.600 stuff that comes from their APIs is incredible. So good, good, 0:04:58.640 --> 0:05:01.320 for them on that, but like, hey guys, let's have 0:05:01.320 --> 0:05:03.400 a ball machine to try to. 0:05:03.320 --> 0:05:05.560 Get as consistent with the balls as possible. 0:05:05.640 --> 0:05:08.600 You know that that would be up the first and 0:05:08.600 --> 0:05:11.160 it's like, you know, try to trying to listen to 0:05:11.480 --> 0:05:14.120 what people are saying, you know, the whole the rollball 0:05:14.200 --> 0:05:16.279 up thing. And I think we went off on that 0:05:16.520 --> 0:05:18.840 on one of the shows we did this year, because 0:05:19.040 --> 0:05:22.120 there's a pivotal call. It seems like in every game 0:05:22.160 --> 0:05:24.400 that you watch, every game that you bet, and if 0:05:25.160 --> 0:05:27.360 the guy misses the call, it changes the whole course 0:05:27.400 --> 0:05:29.280 of the bet Gill and so like, I think that 0:05:29.279 --> 0:05:31.080 that's got to be looked at really hard. 0:05:32.560 --> 0:05:35.479 It's you know, it's like I even said this day also, 0:05:35.680 --> 0:05:38.040 which is you know, we've we've gained so much attention 0:05:38.200 --> 0:05:42.039 for these monthly Major League Baseball Most Wins markets that 0:05:42.080 --> 0:05:44.960 we've been betting on a numbers game and we just 0:05:45.040 --> 0:05:47.360 hit the Astros one for those on the podcast side 0:05:47.360 --> 0:05:48.760 that missed on the radio side, we just hit the 0:05:48.760 --> 0:05:51.280 Astros in June. And it's like it's gained so much 0:05:51.279 --> 0:05:54.359 interest with listeners and it's almost like Rob Manfred would 0:05:54.360 --> 0:05:56.800 call the sports books, for god's sakes, take those markets 0:05:56.839 --> 0:05:59.279 down there's too much interest being generated. We can't have 0:05:59.360 --> 0:06:01.599 more fans. We're all saturated. 0:06:02.360 --> 0:06:04.720 It's insane because they have such a They've got a 0:06:04.760 --> 0:06:07.520 really good product and it's just a matter of marketing 0:06:07.600 --> 0:06:08.360 at it correctly. 0:06:08.400 --> 0:06:10.599 At least of course I'm biased because that's this is 0:06:10.600 --> 0:06:12.120 all I do, is baseball gals. 0:06:12.320 --> 0:06:16.560 Dude. Obviously I lived that life for years, as you know, 0:06:17.279 --> 0:06:21.240 and when you do baseball every day, it is all immersive. 0:06:21.480 --> 0:06:23.560 And I always bring up the you know when Ray 0:06:23.560 --> 0:06:25.640 Allen this is for whatever reason, this is the one 0:06:25.680 --> 0:06:28.119 that I always remember. When Ray Allen hit that amazing 0:06:28.160 --> 0:06:30.320 shot for the Miami Heat against the Spurs and the 0:06:30.360 --> 0:06:34.640 finals in twenty thirteen, I was like unaware that the 0:06:34.720 --> 0:06:38.120 game was even on because you're so immersed in some 0:06:38.400 --> 0:06:41.480 random baseball bet. Oh I've got the Indians again, you know, 0:06:41.520 --> 0:06:43.960 at that time against the Tigers. It's much more important 0:06:43.960 --> 0:06:46.320 to me this night than this NBA fun. So that's 0:06:46.360 --> 0:06:49.320 the life we choose, and I love you said. We've 0:06:49.440 --> 0:06:52.480 chosen to chosen to use our best years for doing 0:06:52.560 --> 0:06:55.560 these Q these Q Q one, Q two and Q 0:06:55.640 --> 0:06:57.520 three pots. So let's start with you know, just in 0:06:57.600 --> 0:07:00.600 terms of money, making. This is a bizarro exercise. If 0:07:00.640 --> 0:07:02.840 you bet these teams, every one of these teams in 0:07:02.880 --> 0:07:06.800 every game, if they were a dog, you know, one 0:07:06.880 --> 0:07:09.560 hundred dollars to win more if they were a favorite 0:07:09.640 --> 0:07:13.160 laying to win one hundred dollars. The number one money 0:07:13.200 --> 0:07:16.400 making team in baseball thus far this year is who 0:07:16.440 --> 0:07:16.840 do you have? 0:07:16.960 --> 0:07:18.720 Mark? Cleveland Guardians. 0:07:18.840 --> 0:07:23.240 Cleveland Guardians, And that makes sense, right they are. They 0:07:23.240 --> 0:07:28.000 have been unbelievably consistent from month to month. Third best 0:07:28.000 --> 0:07:31.200 record in marsh April, third best record in May, not 0:07:31.320 --> 0:07:35.120 quite as good in June, but still the bullpen is 0:07:35.280 --> 0:07:39.680 just so solid. The bullpen just holds and saves so 0:07:39.880 --> 0:07:44.200 many games. You'd be up almost eighteen units betting the 0:07:44.200 --> 0:07:47.760 Guardians every single game this year. The next closest I 0:07:47.840 --> 0:07:51.840 have is Milwaukee and Baltimore, who are twelve units up 0:07:51.840 --> 0:07:55.040 in eleven and a half respectively. So think about that difference. 0:07:55.040 --> 0:07:57.720 I mean, that's a six unit difference between the Guardians 0:07:57.760 --> 0:07:59.040 and the second place team. 0:07:59.520 --> 0:08:02.640 Yeah, they've definitely been a better's friend if you I know, 0:08:02.720 --> 0:08:04.760 there was a lot of guys at the network, gill 0:08:04.880 --> 0:08:07.680 for at your network that were high on the Guardians, 0:08:07.720 --> 0:08:09.960 and unfortunately I wasn't one of the guys high on 0:08:10.000 --> 0:08:12.040 the Guardians, so they haven't been friendly to me, but 0:08:12.120 --> 0:08:14.640 for other people they've been they've been super friendly. They 0:08:14.640 --> 0:08:17.320 are the one other team that's for me between the 0:08:17.960 --> 0:08:20.760 Brewers and the Orioles is the Phillies' they're up there. 0:08:20.640 --> 0:08:23.000 To Gill I got okay, So I'm looking at Covers. 0:08:23.040 --> 0:08:24.520 We were talking about this before we went on air. 0:08:24.560 --> 0:08:26.680 We should sort of pull back the curtain. So for 0:08:26.800 --> 0:08:30.880 many many years when Mark and I did these shows, 0:08:32.040 --> 0:08:35.720 Covers was the source for much of this stuff. I 0:08:35.800 --> 0:08:40.360 have not found their data quite as and I love them, 0:08:40.360 --> 0:08:42.000 don't get Don't get me wrong. They've been great to 0:08:42.080 --> 0:08:44.280 us here with these stats, but I have not found 0:08:44.320 --> 0:08:46.880 their their baseball data as reliable in the last couple 0:08:46.920 --> 0:08:49.920 of years, especially with the umps. So I'm getting I'm 0:08:49.960 --> 0:08:53.800 still using Covers now for these macro ones for full 0:08:54.200 --> 0:08:57.959 full season, both money line and run Line, which we'll 0:08:58.000 --> 0:09:01.960 get to. But then for the other stuff I'm going elsewhere. 0:09:02.080 --> 0:09:03.800 So just for this is this one is still getting 0:09:03.800 --> 0:09:06.040 from Cover, so I have it it Covers. It's Cleveland 0:09:06.480 --> 0:09:09.400 eighteen units up, Milwaukee twelve units up, Baltimore eleven and 0:09:09.440 --> 0:09:12.160 a half units up, then the Yankees, who have just 0:09:12.360 --> 0:09:17.160 completely turned to the bad They're now up almost ten units. 0:09:18.240 --> 0:09:21.640 The Washington Nationals at five, followed by the Phillies and 0:09:21.679 --> 0:09:24.679 the Royals. That's how it is listed. It covers. 0:09:25.200 --> 0:09:26.959 So that's interesting. Yeah, no, no, i'd see it. 0:09:27.200 --> 0:09:29.000 So I use and I want to give these guys 0:09:29.040 --> 0:09:30.439 a shout out because you say, you know the guy. 0:09:30.440 --> 0:09:31.040 He's a good guy. 0:09:31.120 --> 0:09:35.400 Yes, killersports dot com great, great information. As a guy 0:09:35.400 --> 0:09:39.319 who's just delved into this for over twenty years, I've 0:09:39.320 --> 0:09:41.880 got to give props to killersports dot Com. And and 0:09:41.880 --> 0:09:44.280 that's so these are the numbers that I'm using from there, 0:09:44.600 --> 0:09:49.880 and it goes Guardians, Brewers, Phillies Orioles, Nationals, Yankees, Royals. Okay, 0:09:50.080 --> 0:09:52.080 that's that's how how mine goes well. 0:09:52.200 --> 0:09:55.200 And as part of that is also which which lines 0:09:55.240 --> 0:09:58.000 are you using? Are using a closing line? Whe which 0:09:58.000 --> 0:10:00.240 books are using it? So that that would explain some 0:10:00.320 --> 0:10:01.000 of it too. 0:10:01.840 --> 0:10:04.679 Well exactly exactly if you're risking or got to know, 0:10:05.160 --> 0:10:08.200 oh that's right to win. That could be something else 0:10:08.240 --> 0:10:10.200 that they're doing too, but I think for the most part, 0:10:10.400 --> 0:10:12.520 you know they're they're they're pretty close to each other. 0:10:12.559 --> 0:10:14.400 Gil, Yeah, No, that's right what you said. If people 0:10:14.440 --> 0:10:19.080 missed what Mark meant there. For the favorites, oftentimes I 0:10:19.200 --> 0:10:21.720 say it's risking more than one hundred to win a hundred, 0:10:21.720 --> 0:10:23.960 but really in this case, it's probably risking one hundred 0:10:24.000 --> 0:10:26.800 to win less than a hundred. So that also makes 0:10:26.960 --> 0:10:29.760 a difference between sites the worst, just in terms of 0:10:29.760 --> 0:10:32.520 this bizarro exercise, if you bet them one hundred bucks 0:10:32.559 --> 0:10:35.360 every time as a dog or as a favorite, and 0:10:35.400 --> 0:10:39.320 they're a dog almost every time, the White Sox, no surprise. 0:10:39.600 --> 0:10:42.120 Good god, I think the surprise is by how much 0:10:42.200 --> 0:10:44.880 though the White Sox would have hemorrhaged you at this point. 0:10:44.880 --> 0:10:46.280 By the way, if you're betting the White Sox every 0:10:46.280 --> 0:10:48.400 single day, something's wrong with you or you're doing this wrong. 0:10:48.400 --> 0:10:50.240 I should say something is wrong with you. Probably do 0:10:50.880 --> 0:10:53.360 The White Sox would have you down twenty eight units. 0:10:53.920 --> 0:10:57.800 Probably don't do that. The next worst is the Marlins. 0:10:58.080 --> 0:11:01.600 You'd be down half that fourteen units. So the White 0:11:01.640 --> 0:11:05.680 Sox are at this insane pace of hemorrhaging people money. 0:11:06.679 --> 0:11:09.040 By the way, I've got I've got them down thirty 0:11:09.120 --> 0:11:12.720 point oh two units, and then the next team seventeen. 0:11:12.800 --> 0:11:14.800 The next team seventeen point seven. 0:11:14.920 --> 0:11:16.000 So that's one. 0:11:16.080 --> 0:11:18.400 And I've I've kind of have mixed so far for 0:11:18.480 --> 0:11:21.600 the season with my preseason stuff. But the White Socks 0:11:21.600 --> 0:11:24.480 two get have the worst record in baseball. I think 0:11:24.480 --> 0:11:26.400 that's gonna cash. I still have them with like an 0:11:26.400 --> 0:11:29.160 eighty three percent chance. Of course, now Marlins team is 0:11:29.480 --> 0:11:31.840 pretty abysmal, and so are the Rockies, but I think 0:11:31.880 --> 0:11:33.920 that I think that White Sox to have the worst 0:11:33.960 --> 0:11:35.800 record in baseball is still looking pretty good here. 0:11:35.800 --> 0:11:36.040 Gil. 0:11:36.120 --> 0:11:37.920 Yeah, and by the way, we do home road splits 0:11:37.920 --> 0:11:41.160 on this, there's not much interesting things here because Cleveland, 0:11:42.400 --> 0:11:45.840 you know, Cleveland's eighteen units most you know, twelve of them, 0:11:46.160 --> 0:11:48.720 eleven and a half of them are at home, six 0:11:48.760 --> 0:11:51.040 and a half of them are away. And then in 0:11:51.080 --> 0:11:54.960 the White Sox as the bottom twenty one of those 0:11:55.000 --> 0:11:59.880 are on the road, seven loss at home. So kind 0:11:59.920 --> 0:12:02.520 of what you would expect. I guess, not that there's 0:12:02.600 --> 0:12:04.760 much to read into that. I guess the real headline 0:12:04.760 --> 0:12:07.480 here is Mark, is that typically when we do this exercise, 0:12:07.520 --> 0:12:09.560 I guess the Nationals are the interesting one, right. The 0:12:09.640 --> 0:12:12.320 Nationals are thirty nine and forty six, Yet because they 0:12:12.360 --> 0:12:14.920 cash so often as a dog, they found their way 0:12:14.960 --> 0:12:18.520 into the top five or seven, depending you where did 0:12:18.559 --> 0:12:19.480 you have the Nationals in? 0:12:20.440 --> 0:12:23.000 I think they are number five, okay, so we both 0:12:23.000 --> 0:12:25.360 have them at five six, right, so Covers and you 0:12:25.400 --> 0:12:27.800 both have them at five, So the Nationals are the one. 0:12:27.840 --> 0:12:29.800 This is what makes us exercise interesting is when you 0:12:29.800 --> 0:12:32.800 see a team that is not so good in the 0:12:32.840 --> 0:12:36.000 real standings. That makes better is a lot of money still, 0:12:36.120 --> 0:12:39.720 and the Nationals are that one exception. But at the bottom, right, 0:12:39.840 --> 0:12:43.440 the the inverse of that would be a really good 0:12:43.440 --> 0:12:46.559 team that loses a lot because they're always favorites, and 0:12:46.600 --> 0:12:49.800 we simply do not have that this year. Right. The 0:12:49.880 --> 0:12:52.760 closest we come to that is the Cubs are the 0:12:52.880 --> 0:12:54.480 sixth worst per Cub. 0:12:54.559 --> 0:12:55.360 Braves are pretty bad. 0:12:55.360 --> 0:12:58.200 The Braves are forty forty six and thirty seven and 0:12:58.880 --> 0:13:00.840 they're minus units. 0:13:00.880 --> 0:13:02.360 So that's that. I believe me. 0:13:02.400 --> 0:13:04.960 I know because I've been high on the Braves all year, 0:13:05.000 --> 0:13:06.480 and that's one that I've missed on gil. 0:13:06.559 --> 0:13:08.920 Oh. See, Now that's a big discrepancy because Covers haves 0:13:08.960 --> 0:13:12.040 them losing eight units, they're still a they'd still be 0:13:12.040 --> 0:13:14.560 a top ten worst per Cover, So that's a bit 0:13:14.600 --> 0:13:17.120 of a difference. But still that is a great example. 0:13:17.240 --> 0:13:19.080 But I guess we don't have like, we don't have 0:13:19.160 --> 0:13:21.439 one in the bottom five. Let's put it that way. 0:13:21.480 --> 0:13:24.120 This year, as far as the run lines are concerned, 0:13:24.120 --> 0:13:26.640 and everybody who's listened to all you know, all these 0:13:26.760 --> 0:13:30.800 q pods in past years, no a de facto power rating. 0:13:30.920 --> 0:13:33.240 As I like to call it again, if you win 0:13:33.280 --> 0:13:35.200 on the run line as a favorite, you are covering 0:13:35.200 --> 0:13:37.559 the one and a half. If you win as a dog, 0:13:38.040 --> 0:13:41.240 oftentimes you lose, but you only lose by one run, 0:13:41.320 --> 0:13:44.440 so you still cash. The number one run line team 0:13:44.480 --> 0:13:46.120 in all of baseball. 0:13:45.880 --> 0:13:48.800 Is Mark I got the Orioles, Gill. 0:13:48.840 --> 0:13:51.840 It's the Orioles, the Oriols by quite a bit. Actually, 0:13:52.679 --> 0:13:57.400 Cleveland and the Yankees third, excuse me, second and third. 0:13:57.440 --> 0:13:59.880 Yeah, let me. I've got the Yankees at number two. 0:14:00.520 --> 0:14:03.360 Yeah. So, but Cleveland and the Yankees are close. Baltimore 0:14:03.400 --> 0:14:06.480 by far right, eighteen and a half units to the positive. Then, 0:14:06.520 --> 0:14:10.560 according to Covers, Cleveland thirteen point sixty five the Yankees 0:14:10.679 --> 0:14:15.520 twelve point six. The worst run line team there is 0:14:15.720 --> 0:14:18.240 there is many worse than the White Sox. By the way, 0:14:18.600 --> 0:14:21.280 the Marlins are the worst on the run line you'd 0:14:21.280 --> 0:14:24.520 be down seventeen point nine units per covers. What do 0:14:24.560 --> 0:14:24.760 you have? 0:14:26.000 --> 0:14:32.400 I'm looking at the how the Tigers are bad on mind. 0:14:32.320 --> 0:14:34.240 It Covers has them as third worst. They have the 0:14:34.560 --> 0:14:41.000 Marlins worst, cub second worst, Tigers third worst. Interesting, but 0:14:41.040 --> 0:14:44.280 that's so that's the thing. When you get to betting 0:14:44.320 --> 0:14:48.960 lines difference and how you are calculating these as we 0:14:49.040 --> 0:14:51.200 described earlier, then then there does become a difference. But 0:14:51.240 --> 0:14:54.000 we see the we see how there's generally the same 0:14:54.040 --> 0:14:56.320 group of teams. I guess the question for you and 0:14:56.360 --> 0:14:58.520 all of that, because then it gets much more precise 0:14:58.600 --> 0:15:01.560 here after we do this, the question for you is 0:15:01.920 --> 0:15:05.440 which of these teams that are towards the top or 0:15:05.480 --> 0:15:08.960 towards the bottom that might be surprising? Do you think 0:15:09.040 --> 0:15:13.560 is actually a portent of things to come? Like Seattle? Right, 0:15:13.640 --> 0:15:18.520 Seattle is a really bad run line team. Like they're good, 0:15:18.720 --> 0:15:21.400 like you know, they've they started out really solid. Now 0:15:21.440 --> 0:15:23.400 of course they've come back a bit, but in terms 0:15:23.400 --> 0:15:26.160 of the money line, you're still winning a tick of 0:15:26.200 --> 0:15:29.040 money on them in the aggregate, but on the run 0:15:29.080 --> 0:15:32.440 line they stink. They're the fifth worst per Covers. 0:15:32.960 --> 0:15:35.600 Yeah, that's an interesting look, and I think that they probably, 0:15:35.720 --> 0:15:37.520 just off the top of my head, they probably want 0:15:37.600 --> 0:15:40.000 a lot of one run games right home. It's like 0:15:40.400 --> 0:15:42.960 we're the balls, talk about dead balls. That's where balls 0:15:43.000 --> 0:15:45.640 go to die. Tea Mobile and. 0:15:46.520 --> 0:15:49.480 I gosh, it seems like I don't know you. 0:15:49.640 --> 0:15:52.400 You've always been a big draw parlay guy, but it 0:15:52.400 --> 0:15:54.960 seems like if you're a draw parlay guy, let's let's 0:15:54.960 --> 0:15:57.960 go to Tea Mobile Park in Seattle for the second 0:15:58.040 --> 0:16:00.920 leg of the draw parlay. Seems like those games going 0:16:00.920 --> 0:16:02.080 to extra innings all the time. 0:16:02.160 --> 0:16:05.000 Go that and it checks out. On their one run record, 0:16:05.000 --> 0:16:10.080 they are eighteen and nine, the best by percentage. No, 0:16:10.240 --> 0:16:13.360 but they certainly have the most one run wins in 0:16:13.400 --> 0:16:16.600 all of baseball this year, eighteen and nine by percentage. 0:16:16.600 --> 0:16:20.880 I suppose that the uh the there's one better than them? 0:16:21.280 --> 0:16:23.480 Where did I see that? Did I see a percent Yeah? 0:16:23.520 --> 0:16:26.360 The Rays are actually better percentage wise, they're sixteen and seven, 0:16:26.600 --> 0:16:29.320 But the Mariners eighteen and nine and one run out 0:16:29.320 --> 0:16:32.960 comes this year, including six, six and three in extras. 0:16:33.000 --> 0:16:35.240 By the way, in addition to that, you. 0:16:35.200 --> 0:16:38.400 Talking about sustainable, you know that racing might be sustainable. 0:16:38.480 --> 0:16:41.440 It's like for somehow, you know, cash is able to 0:16:41.480 --> 0:16:45.320 cast the one run lines managing that team all the time, 0:16:45.360 --> 0:16:47.960 and it seems like that's a pretty consistent thing. 0:16:48.240 --> 0:16:49.800 I just off the top of my head. 0:16:49.840 --> 0:16:53.240 I'd have to do the research, but Tampa Bay winning 0:16:53.400 --> 0:16:55.360 one run games is not a surprise to me. 0:16:55.440 --> 0:16:55.680 Gil. 0:16:55.760 --> 0:16:57.920 Yeah, well, that's interesting. So the Rays, who are in 0:16:58.040 --> 0:17:02.200 fourth place in the East, only the Blue Jays are worse. 0:17:02.200 --> 0:17:04.240 They're forty three and forty two in the standings as 0:17:04.240 --> 0:17:08.280 of this morning, they're minus fifty two in run differential. 0:17:08.600 --> 0:17:10.880 But because you get the best of that one run 0:17:10.920 --> 0:17:13.760 outcome at sixteen and seven, they are where they are. 0:17:14.160 --> 0:17:20.399 In fact, that's everything to their season so Far's. 0:17:18.920 --> 0:17:22.920 They're still there. About the Rays, it's like, yeah, oh, 0:17:22.960 --> 0:17:24.879 and you know, and I was high on them to 0:17:24.920 --> 0:17:26.680 begin with. To start the season, I kind of wrote 0:17:26.680 --> 0:17:29.239 them off. But they they're like they're they're kicking around there. 0:17:29.280 --> 0:17:31.840 They couldn't make the playoffs, that's that's something that could happen. 0:17:32.040 --> 0:17:34.240 Yeah, So the Rays. By the way, going back to 0:17:34.280 --> 0:17:37.240 what we're talking about, the Rays, you'd only have lost 0:17:37.320 --> 0:17:39.679 for the full year, you'd only have lost two point 0:17:39.680 --> 0:17:42.040 six units of you Again, the Barzarrow exercise of one 0:17:42.080 --> 0:17:44.640 hundred dollars in all eighty five of their game so far. 0:17:45.359 --> 0:17:47.520 But on the run line, you would be down six 0:17:47.560 --> 0:17:51.639 point three units because again the one run thing, and 0:17:51.640 --> 0:17:53.200 in part of those one run games, they're going to 0:17:53.280 --> 0:17:56.040 be favorites, so they're not covering. At the same time. 0:17:56.160 --> 0:17:58.119 Let's go to something because I don't know there's a 0:17:58.119 --> 0:18:01.080 lot there. Let me do starting pitchers. This just happens 0:18:01.119 --> 0:18:05.360 to be the stats on you know which starting pitchers 0:18:05.359 --> 0:18:08.439 when they take the hill have happened if you just 0:18:08.560 --> 0:18:11.639 back them every single game. In a bizarre exercise, who's 0:18:11.640 --> 0:18:18.359 made the most money. The Washington Nationals Trevor Williams is 0:18:18.440 --> 0:18:22.399 number one on this. If you had back Trevor Williams 0:18:22.440 --> 0:18:24.399 in every single one of his starts, you'd be up 0:18:24.400 --> 0:18:27.879 eleven point six units. Now where it gets interesting to 0:18:27.920 --> 0:18:31.040 me is the next one. Because this is a Cleveland 0:18:31.080 --> 0:18:33.480 Guardians pitcher that I you know, in my month long 0:18:33.520 --> 0:18:36.800 bets in both March April and in May. March April 0:18:36.840 --> 0:18:38.840 being one month because March just had a few games. 0:18:39.119 --> 0:18:42.320 But you got Tyler Biby as number two, you'd be 0:18:42.400 --> 0:18:46.480 up nine point three units on him. Ranger Suarez of 0:18:46.520 --> 0:18:50.880 the Phillies is fourth in just terms of money. Mitch 0:18:51.000 --> 0:18:54.080 Keller of the Pirates would be fourth in terms of 0:18:54.080 --> 0:18:56.200 money made. Again, just bizarre exercise. If you just back 0:18:56.280 --> 0:18:58.879 these guys blindly and then I expect this one to 0:18:58.880 --> 0:19:02.120 show up. Alec Marsha the Royals would be fifth. By 0:19:02.119 --> 0:19:05.840 the way, even more surprising than that is sixth Uh 0:19:06.040 --> 0:19:08.639