Speaker 1: Wednesday morning, July third, twenty twenty four. It is the
Speaker 1: Beating the Book Podcast MLB Derivatives Q two with Mark Borchert.
Speaker 1: A tradition unlike any other. Literally, I said this the
Speaker 1: last time, the oldest of the Beating the Book series,
Speaker 1: even older than the megapod and guessing lines. How about
Speaker 1: that Mark porchrid from an undisclosed location in the desert
Speaker 1: at Base Winner. What's happening?
Speaker 2: Well, it's It's amazing that we've been around so long. Gil.
Speaker 2: It makes you feel kind of old. But you know
Speaker 2: what I remember, handicapping for whatever.
Speaker 3: When you bring that up, the two thousand and six
Speaker 3: World Series Rockies in Red Sox. Oh man, God, you
Speaker 3: know that was almost twenty years ago.
Speaker 2: Wow?
Speaker 1: Was that two thousand and six or seven?
Speaker 2: Two thousand and six? Yeah, because two.
Speaker 1: Thousand and seven, wasn't that that horrible Cardinals team that
Speaker 1: won the World Series? That might have been the worst
Speaker 1: team to ever win a World Series?
Speaker 2: That's right. I think they beat the Tigers that year.
Speaker 1: Yeah, But two thousand and six, the fact that the
Speaker 1: Colorado Rockies got to a World Series is just one
Speaker 1: of the more by the way, we talked about the
Speaker 1: most amazing feats in sports history. Given the troubles of
Speaker 1: h roster construction of a team in corse Field, the
Speaker 1: fact that they got to a World Series is sort
Speaker 1: of this under the radar incredible thing that happened in sports.
Speaker 1: And then I think the Red Sox swept them, didn't They.
Speaker 3: They did, and there was there was a Ubaldo Jimenez
Speaker 3: just pitched like I mean, he was lights out for
Speaker 3: two months. I remember just just wanting to dial into
Speaker 3: the radio to the serious for the games because he
Speaker 3: was he was a striking guys out.
Speaker 2: He was just amazing. And then the guy kind of
Speaker 2: fizzled out.
Speaker 1: That was the early part of that season. He was unbelievable. Yep, yeah,
Speaker 1: who could forget all right? So, for those who are
Speaker 1: new to this mark, and I have been doing this
Speaker 1: for more than a decade, we do a Q one,
Speaker 1: we do a Q two, we do a Q three,
Speaker 1: which is essentially and I get it. We're a little
Speaker 1: past the eighty one game mark, so we kind of
Speaker 1: missed it precisely. But we're still in the eighties here
Speaker 1: in the early eighties of games played, all Star breaks,
Speaker 1: still a week and a half away from Major League
Speaker 1: Baseball and we will do a Q three And essentially
Speaker 1: the point of this is not, hey, look at all
Speaker 1: these stats. The point of all this is, look at
Speaker 1: these stats. Is there something predictive about these moving forward
Speaker 1: that can help us in our bettings? Some are going
Speaker 1: to be just you know, moments in time narratives. But
Speaker 1: as we go from Q one to Q two, I
Speaker 1: think now these stats are much more robust, and we
Speaker 1: can say sustainable or unsustainable. That's the name of this game.
Speaker 1: And we crescendo to the more proprietary stats. We will
Speaker 1: get to first fives that will be preceded by umpires.
Speaker 1: Mark is a unbelievable resource of historical umpire data. So
Speaker 1: we'll look at the twenty twenty four umpire data and
Speaker 1: we'll sort of cross check it with Mark's historical ones.
Speaker 1: Then we'll do the first five stuff, and we'll also
Speaker 1: do first inning numbers for pitchers because people like betting
Speaker 1: first innings first. As always though, Mark, and thank you
Speaker 1: by the way, let me just say, because if we
Speaker 1: count these all up, this is god it We kinda
Speaker 1: have done like almost forty of these. It's just incredible.
Speaker 3: Spending the best years of our lives talking about quarterly baseball.
Speaker 3: You know what, I wouldn't want to be anywhere else
Speaker 3: actually on a beat to July third?
Speaker 2: Why not? Okay?
Speaker 1: And can we start with that before we get into
Speaker 1: the stats. How come Major League Baseball is this stupid mark?
Speaker 1: It's July third, it's a Wednesday. Every Wednesday has full
Speaker 1: day major League Baseball. Why just because it's July fourth tomorrow,
Speaker 1: did they decide we're not going to have any day
Speaker 1: games on July third? Why?
Speaker 2: It's the weirdest thing.
Speaker 3: You think they'd want to have more because I think
Speaker 3: they'll probably have some day games tomorrow on a Joy four,
Speaker 3: so it could give the guys, give the guys a
Speaker 3: little bit of extra rest. I don't understand that, And
Speaker 3: I don't understand in the summertime. And I love the
Speaker 3: Tuesday night card. It's a full card, but there's usually
Speaker 3: no day games on a Tuesday. So like, I mean,
Speaker 3: instead of betting on baseball, we're betting on euro Soccer.
Speaker 3: So I mean really like, like like putting it from
Speaker 3: a revenue perspective, if I think that that having a
Speaker 3: couple of day games on a Tuesday would be in
Speaker 3: the summertime, would be a good idea, Gil.
Speaker 1: We had a we had a tweet this morning where
Speaker 1: someone's like, well, because they want everybody, we want all
Speaker 1: these ballparks to have fireworks. That's why they're putting all
Speaker 1: the games at night. I go, but yeah, but there's
Speaker 1: day games on July fourth, So like that doesn't make
Speaker 1: any sense. Just flip them then, right, have some day
Speaker 1: today and those play night tomorrow and vice versa. I
Speaker 1: was saying early. I was joking on the on the
Speaker 1: radio side this morning. I was like, it's like Major
Speaker 1: League Baseball, like Rob Manfred's like, for god's sake, we
Speaker 1: have all the fans we need. Let's not do anything
Speaker 1: to get more fans.
Speaker 2: Oh, it's so it's so aggravating because they do a
Speaker 2: lot of things.
Speaker 3: First of all, let's let's pop up MLB dot Com.
Speaker 3: Wonderful way to take in baseball. You can watch four
Speaker 3: games at one time with different feeds audio. If you
Speaker 3: like the Braves radio broadcasters, which I really like, you
Speaker 3: can listen to them when you're betting a Braves game.
Speaker 3: So their technology is really getting me and from a
Speaker 3: from a data guy, from a processing guy, uh, the
Speaker 3: stuff that comes from their APIs is incredible. So good, good,
Speaker 3: for them on that, but like, hey guys, let's have
Speaker 3: a ball machine to try to.
Speaker 2: Get as consistent with the balls as possible.
Speaker 3: You know that that would be up the first and
Speaker 3: it's like, you know, try to trying to listen to
Speaker 3: what people are saying, you know, the whole the rollball
Speaker 3: up thing. And I think we went off on that
Speaker 3: on one of the shows we did this year, because
Speaker 3: there's a pivotal call. It seems like in every game
Speaker 3: that you watch, every game that you bet, and if
Speaker 3: the guy misses the call, it changes the whole course
Speaker 3: of the bet Gill and so like, I think that
Speaker 3: that's got to be looked at really hard.
Speaker 1: It's you know, it's like I even said this day also,
Speaker 1: which is you know, we've we've gained so much attention
Speaker 1: for these monthly Major League Baseball Most Wins markets that
Speaker 1: we've been betting on a numbers game and we just
Speaker 1: hit the Astros one for those on the podcast side
Speaker 1: that missed on the radio side, we just hit the
Speaker 1: Astros in June. And it's like it's gained so much
Speaker 1: interest with listeners and it's almost like Rob Manfred would
Speaker 1: call the sports books, for god's sakes, take those markets
Speaker 1: down there's too much interest being generated. We can't have
Speaker 1: more fans. We're all saturated.
Speaker 3: It's insane because they have such a They've got a
Speaker 3: really good product and it's just a matter of marketing
Speaker 3: at it correctly.
Speaker 2: At least of course I'm biased because that's this is
Speaker 2: all I do, is baseball gals.
Speaker 1: Dude. Obviously I lived that life for years, as you know,
Speaker 1: and when you do baseball every day, it is all immersive.
Speaker 1: And I always bring up the you know when Ray
Speaker 1: Allen this is for whatever reason, this is the one
Speaker 1: that I always remember. When Ray Allen hit that amazing
Speaker 1: shot for the Miami Heat against the Spurs and the
Speaker 1: finals in twenty thirteen, I was like unaware that the
Speaker 1: game was even on because you're so immersed in some
Speaker 1: random baseball bet. Oh I've got the Indians again, you know,
Speaker 1: at that time against the Tigers. It's much more important
Speaker 1: to me this night than this NBA fun. So that's
Speaker 1: the life we choose, and I love you said. We've
Speaker 1: chosen to chosen to use our best years for doing
Speaker 1: these Q these Q Q one, Q two and Q
Speaker 1: three pots. So let's start with you know, just in
Speaker 1: terms of money, making. This is a bizarro exercise. If
Speaker 1: you bet these teams, every one of these teams in
Speaker 1: every game, if they were a dog, you know, one
Speaker 1: hundred dollars to win more if they were a favorite
Speaker 1: laying to win one hundred dollars. The number one money
Speaker 1: making team in baseball thus far this year is who
Speaker 1: do you have?
Speaker 2: Mark? Cleveland Guardians.
Speaker 1: Cleveland Guardians, And that makes sense, right they are. They
Speaker 1: have been unbelievably consistent from month to month. Third best
Speaker 1: record in marsh April, third best record in May, not
Speaker 1: quite as good in June, but still the bullpen is
Speaker 1: just so solid. The bullpen just holds and saves so
Speaker 1: many games. You'd be up almost eighteen units betting the
Speaker 1: Guardians every single game this year. The next closest I
Speaker 1: have is Milwaukee and Baltimore, who are twelve units up
Speaker 1: in eleven and a half respectively. So think about that difference.
Speaker 1: I mean, that's a six unit difference between the Guardians
Speaker 1: and the second place team.
Speaker 3: Yeah, they've definitely been a better's friend if you I know,
Speaker 3: there was a lot of guys at the network, gill
Speaker 3: for at your network that were high on the Guardians,
Speaker 3: and unfortunately I wasn't one of the guys high on
Speaker 3: the Guardians, so they haven't been friendly to me, but
Speaker 3: for other people they've been they've been super friendly. They
Speaker 3: are the one other team that's for me between the
Speaker 3: Brewers and the Orioles is the Phillies' they're up there.
Speaker 1: To Gill I got okay, So I'm looking at Covers.
Speaker 1: We were talking about this before we went on air.
Speaker 1: We should sort of pull back the curtain. So for
Speaker 1: many many years when Mark and I did these shows,
Speaker 1: Covers was the source for much of this stuff. I
Speaker 1: have not found their data quite as and I love them,
Speaker 1: don't get Don't get me wrong. They've been great to
Speaker 1: us here with these stats, but I have not found
Speaker 1: their their baseball data as reliable in the last couple
Speaker 1: of years, especially with the umps. So I'm getting I'm
Speaker 1: still using Covers now for these macro ones for full
Speaker 1: full season, both money line and run Line, which we'll
Speaker 1: get to. But then for the other stuff I'm going elsewhere.
Speaker 1: So just for this is this one is still getting
Speaker 1: from Cover, so I have it it Covers. It's Cleveland
Speaker 1: eighteen units up, Milwaukee twelve units up, Baltimore eleven and
Speaker 1: a half units up, then the Yankees, who have just
Speaker 1: completely turned to the bad They're now up almost ten units.
Speaker 1: The Washington Nationals at five, followed by the Phillies and
Speaker 1: the Royals. That's how it is listed. It covers.
Speaker 2: So that's interesting. Yeah, no, no, i'd see it.
Speaker 3: So I use and I want to give these guys
Speaker 3: a shout out because you say, you know the guy.
Speaker 2: He's a good guy.
Speaker 3: Yes, killersports dot com great, great information. As a guy
Speaker 3: who's just delved into this for over twenty years, I've
Speaker 3: got to give props to killersports dot Com. And and
Speaker 3: that's so these are the numbers that I'm using from there,
Speaker 3: and it goes Guardians, Brewers, Phillies Orioles, Nationals, Yankees, Royals. Okay,
Speaker 3: that's that's how how mine goes well.
Speaker 1: And as part of that is also which which lines
Speaker 1: are you using? Are using a closing line? Whe which
Speaker 1: books are using it? So that that would explain some
Speaker 1: of it too.
Speaker 3: Well exactly exactly if you're risking or got to know,
Speaker 3: oh that's right to win. That could be something else
Speaker 3: that they're doing too, but I think for the most part,
Speaker 3: you know they're they're they're pretty close to each other.
Speaker 1: Gil, Yeah, No, that's right what you said. If people
Speaker 1: missed what Mark meant there. For the favorites, oftentimes I
Speaker 1: say it's risking more than one hundred to win a hundred,
Speaker 1: but really in this case, it's probably risking one hundred
Speaker 1: to win less than a hundred. So that also makes
Speaker 1: a difference between sites the worst, just in terms of
Speaker 1: this bizarro exercise, if you bet them one hundred bucks
Speaker 1: every time as a dog or as a favorite, and
Speaker 1: they're a dog almost every time, the White Sox, no surprise.
Speaker 1: Good god, I think the surprise is by how much
Speaker 1: though the White Sox would have hemorrhaged you at this point.
Speaker 1: By the way, if you're betting the White Sox every
Speaker 1: single day, something's wrong with you or you're doing this wrong.
Speaker 1: I should say something is wrong with you. Probably do
Speaker 1: The White Sox would have you down twenty eight units.
Speaker 1: Probably don't do that. The next worst is the Marlins.
Speaker 1: You'd be down half that fourteen units. So the White
Speaker 1: Sox are at this insane pace of hemorrhaging people money.
Speaker 3: By the way, I've got I've got them down thirty
Speaker 3: point oh two units, and then the next team seventeen.
Speaker 3: The next team seventeen point seven.
Speaker 2: So that's one.
Speaker 3: And I've I've kind of have mixed so far for
Speaker 3: the season with my preseason stuff. But the White Socks
Speaker 3: two get have the worst record in baseball. I think
Speaker 3: that's gonna cash. I still have them with like an
Speaker 3: eighty three percent chance. Of course, now Marlins team is
Speaker 3: pretty abysmal, and so are the Rockies, but I think
Speaker 3: that I think that White Sox to have the worst
Speaker 3: record in baseball is still looking pretty good here.
Speaker 2: Gil.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and by the way, we do home road splits
Speaker 1: on this, there's not much interesting things here because Cleveland,
Speaker 1: you know, Cleveland's eighteen units most you know, twelve of them,
Speaker 1: eleven and a half of them are at home, six
Speaker 1: and a half of them are away. And then in
Speaker 1: the White Sox as the bottom twenty one of those
Speaker 1: are on the road, seven loss at home. So kind
Speaker 1: of what you would expect. I guess, not that there's
Speaker 1: much to read into that. I guess the real headline
Speaker 1: here is Mark, is that typically when we do this exercise,
Speaker 1: I guess the Nationals are the interesting one, right. The
Speaker 1: Nationals are thirty nine and forty six, Yet because they
Speaker 1: cash so often as a dog, they found their way
Speaker 1: into the top five or seven, depending you where did
Speaker 1: you have the Nationals in?
Speaker 3: I think they are number five, okay, so we both
Speaker 3: have them at five six, right, so Covers and you
Speaker 3: both have them at five, So the Nationals are the one.
Speaker 1: This is what makes us exercise interesting is when you
Speaker 1: see a team that is not so good in the
Speaker 1: real standings. That makes better is a lot of money still,
Speaker 1: and the Nationals are that one exception. But at the bottom, right,
Speaker 1: the the inverse of that would be a really good
Speaker 1: team that loses a lot because they're always favorites, and
Speaker 1: we simply do not have that this year. Right. The
Speaker 1: closest we come to that is the Cubs are the
Speaker 1: sixth worst per Cub.
Speaker 2: Braves are pretty bad.
Speaker 3: The Braves are forty forty six and thirty seven and
Speaker 3: they're minus units.
Speaker 2: So that's that. I believe me.
Speaker 3: I know because I've been high on the Braves all year,
Speaker 3: and that's one that I've missed on gil.
Speaker 1: Oh. See, Now that's a big discrepancy because Covers haves
Speaker 1: them losing eight units, they're still a they'd still be
Speaker 1: a top ten worst per Cover, So that's a bit
Speaker 1: of a difference. But still that is a great example.
Speaker 1: But I guess we don't have like, we don't have
Speaker 1: one in the bottom five. Let's put it that way.
Speaker 1: This year, as far as the run lines are concerned,
Speaker 1: and everybody who's listened to all you know, all these
Speaker 1: q pods in past years, no a de facto power rating.
Speaker 1: As I like to call it again, if you win
Speaker 1: on the run line as a favorite, you are covering
Speaker 1: the one and a half. If you win as a dog,
Speaker 1: oftentimes you lose, but you only lose by one run,
Speaker 1: so you still cash. The number one run line team
Speaker 1: in all of baseball.
Speaker 2: Is Mark I got the Orioles, Gill.
Speaker 1: It's the Orioles, the Oriols by quite a bit. Actually,
Speaker 1: Cleveland and the Yankees third, excuse me, second and third.
Speaker 2: Yeah, let me. I've got the Yankees at number two.
Speaker 1: Yeah. So, but Cleveland and the Yankees are close. Baltimore
Speaker 1: by far right, eighteen and a half units to the positive. Then,
Speaker 1: according to Covers, Cleveland thirteen point sixty five the Yankees
Speaker 1: twelve point six. The worst run line team there is
Speaker 1: there is many worse than the White Sox. By the way,
Speaker 1: the Marlins are the worst on the run line you'd
Speaker 1: be down seventeen point nine units per covers. What do
Speaker 1: you have?
Speaker 3: I'm looking at the how the Tigers are bad on mind.
Speaker 1: It Covers has them as third worst. They have the
Speaker 1: Marlins worst, cub second worst, Tigers third worst. Interesting, but
Speaker 1: that's so that's the thing. When you get to betting
Speaker 1: lines difference and how you are calculating these as we
Speaker 1: described earlier, then then there does become a difference. But
Speaker 1: we see the we see how there's generally the same
Speaker 1: group of teams. I guess the question for you and
Speaker 1: all of that, because then it gets much more precise
Speaker 1: here after we do this, the question for you is
Speaker 1: which of these teams that are towards the top or
Speaker 1: towards the bottom that might be surprising? Do you think
Speaker 1: is actually a portent of things to come? Like Seattle? Right,
Speaker 1: Seattle is a really bad run line team. Like they're good,
Speaker 1: like you know, they've they started out really solid. Now
Speaker 1: of course they've come back a bit, but in terms
Speaker 1: of the money line, you're still winning a tick of
Speaker 1: money on them in the aggregate, but on the run
Speaker 1: line they stink. They're the fifth worst per Covers.
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's an interesting look, and I think that they probably,
Speaker 3: just off the top of my head, they probably want
Speaker 3: a lot of one run games right home. It's like
Speaker 3: we're the balls, talk about dead balls. That's where balls
Speaker 3: go to die. Tea Mobile and.
Speaker 2: I gosh, it seems like I don't know you.
Speaker 3: You've always been a big draw parlay guy, but it
Speaker 3: seems like if you're a draw parlay guy, let's let's
Speaker 3: go to Tea Mobile Park in Seattle for the second
Speaker 3: leg of the draw parlay. Seems like those games going
Speaker 3: to extra innings all the time.
Speaker 1: Go that and it checks out. On their one run record,
Speaker 1: they are eighteen and nine, the best by percentage. No,
Speaker 1: but they certainly have the most one run wins in
Speaker 1: all of baseball this year, eighteen and nine by percentage.
Speaker 1: I suppose that the uh the there's one better than them?
Speaker 1: Where did I see that? Did I see a percent Yeah?
Speaker 1: The Rays are actually better percentage wise, they're sixteen and seven,
Speaker 1: But the Mariners eighteen and nine and one run out
Speaker 1: comes this year, including six, six and three in extras.
Speaker 1: By the way, in addition to that, you.
Speaker 3: Talking about sustainable, you know that racing might be sustainable.
Speaker 3: It's like for somehow, you know, cash is able to
Speaker 3: cast the one run lines managing that team all the time,
Speaker 3: and it seems like that's a pretty consistent thing.
Speaker 2: I just off the top of my head.
Speaker 3: I'd have to do the research, but Tampa Bay winning
Speaker 3: one run games is not a surprise to me.
Speaker 2: Gil.
Speaker 1: Yeah, well, that's interesting. So the Rays, who are in
Speaker 1: fourth place in the East, only the Blue Jays are worse.
Speaker 1: They're forty three and forty two in the standings as
Speaker 1: of this morning, they're minus fifty two in run differential.
Speaker 1: But because you get the best of that one run
Speaker 1: outcome at sixteen and seven, they are where they are.
Speaker 1: In fact, that's everything to their season so Far's.
Speaker 3: They're still there. About the Rays, it's like, yeah, oh,
Speaker 3: and you know, and I was high on them to
Speaker 3: begin with. To start the season, I kind of wrote
Speaker 3: them off. But they they're like they're they're kicking around there.
Speaker 3: They couldn't make the playoffs, that's that's something that could happen.
Speaker 1: Yeah, So the Rays. By the way, going back to
Speaker 1: what we're talking about, the Rays, you'd only have lost
Speaker 1: for the full year, you'd only have lost two point
Speaker 1: six units of you Again, the Barzarrow exercise of one
Speaker 1: hundred dollars in all eighty five of their game so far.
Speaker 1: But on the run line, you would be down six
Speaker 1: point three units because again the one run thing, and
Speaker 1: in part of those one run games, they're going to
Speaker 1: be favorites, so they're not covering. At the same time.
Speaker 1: Let's go to something because I don't know there's a
Speaker 1: lot there. Let me do starting pitchers. This just happens
Speaker 1: to be the stats on you know which starting pitchers
Speaker 1: when they take the hill have happened if you just
Speaker 1: back them every single game. In a bizarre exercise, who's
Speaker 1: made the most money. The Washington Nationals Trevor Williams is
Speaker 1: number one on this. If you had back Trevor Williams
Speaker 1: in every single one of his starts, you'd be up
Speaker 1: eleven point six units. Now where it gets interesting to
Speaker 1: me is the next one. Because this is a Cleveland
Speaker 1: Guardians pitcher that I you know, in my month long
Speaker 1: bets in both March April and in May. March April
Speaker 1: being one month because March just had a few games.
Speaker 1: But you got Tyler Biby as number two, you'd be
Speaker 1: up nine point three units on him. Ranger Suarez of
Speaker 1: the Phillies is fourth in just terms of money. Mitch
Speaker 1: Keller of the Pirates would be fourth in terms of
Speaker 1: money made. Again, just bizarre exercise. If you just back
Speaker 1: these guys blindly and then I expect this one to
Speaker 1: show up. Alec Marsha the Royals would be fifth. By
Speaker 1: the way, even more surprising than that is sixth Uh
Speaker 1: when you see Kyle Harrison of the Giants. There Giants
Speaker 1: are ten and four in games that he's pitched. Anyway,
Speaker 1: just is any of that sustainable? Because to me, the
Speaker 1: Biby thing is interesting because it gets back to the Guardians.
Speaker 1: It's not it's less about Bibby than it is about
Speaker 1: the bullpen where they're fourteen and three in games he
Speaker 1: started where it's just like, I don't know how much
Speaker 1: of that is him. He's been good, but the bullpen
Speaker 1: is just so good, just holds everything.
Speaker 2: Yo.
Speaker 3: I like Bibby. Bobby's like in the top twenty for me.
Speaker 3: So he's I think he's a nice pitcher. I don't
Speaker 3: you know, he's not Shane Bieber, but maybe Shane Bieber
Speaker 3: light you know, okay, you got well he said, got
Speaker 3: Bieber and then you got bibby Bybby Byby Oh.
Speaker 1: I don't know. I don't know what just happened. Mark
Speaker 1: might have had a stroke. We'll check on him, Okay, Mark.
Speaker 3: By allusion to baby baby baby oh by justin Bieber
Speaker 3: in case you oh tanner biby byby bybby bybby Oh.
Speaker 1: Baby, how does that go? By Bieber?
Speaker 2: Baby baby baby baby baby?
Speaker 3: Oh thought you'd all we've been mine and so like
Speaker 3: maybe maybe with bob he hey baby byby bye bye
Speaker 3: baby Bobby, Oh, don't you know you're the base winner?
Speaker 3: Number nine doesn't have the same ring to it, but
Speaker 3: same idea.
Speaker 1: Wow, we have a drop on a numbers game where
Speaker 1: we had Mark quoting snoop lyrics that we that we
Speaker 1: lay down every time. Could you would you like to
Speaker 1: rehearse that or recite that for everybody real quick? Oh?
Speaker 2: Because I have my mind on my money and my
Speaker 2: money on my mine.
Speaker 1: Bark borchard everybody, well done. Okay, This is, by the way,
Speaker 1: the worst pitcher in baseball in terms of that same exercise,
Speaker 1: if you happen to back them in all their starts
Speaker 1: every single game. Chris Flexen of the White Sox White
Speaker 1: Sox are two and fourteen when he's taking the hill
Speaker 1: you'd be down nine point eight five units. And then
Speaker 1: I just want to give a shout out to the
Speaker 1: number two person, because the number two person got me
Speaker 1: my Astros month long win. On Sunday night, Andrew Heeney
Speaker 1: of the Rangers, the second biggest hemorrhager of all starting
Speaker 1: pitchers in baseball this year in terms of money, actually
Speaker 1: pitched well against the Orioles on Sunday night when I
Speaker 1: needed him to an act of God. Thank you, Andrew
Speaker 1: heeny But there you go.
Speaker 3: So anyway, one thing I want to say about Heeni
Speaker 3: is I think he's got some good like underlying numbers,
Speaker 3: Like based on past under nine underlying numbers for him,
Speaker 3: he's the base winner number twenty two, so I think
Speaker 3: that he'll move up. You're talking about like a flexing
Speaker 3: is awful. It seems like Flexen is never flexing his
Speaker 3: muscles and he's like, I'm betting against that guy. It
Speaker 3: seems like every time. And but hai hany, I'm seeing
Speaker 3: some regression to the good based on what he's done.
Speaker 1: Yeah, his stats are fine, Like I'm looking at his
Speaker 1: fan grafts page. I'm talking about Heini now, his stats
Speaker 1: are completely fine. They're not spectacular, but there's nothing horrible
Speaker 1: about them at all. They're right down the middle. By
Speaker 1: the way, you remember that half season where everybody thought
Speaker 1: Flexen was unbelievable.
Speaker 3: You know, I bet I personally been an over over
Speaker 3: a game in spring training when he pitched and.
Speaker 2: He was lights out. Yeah, and and like there was.
Speaker 3: Like over nine a game it was like two to one,
Speaker 3: and they he pitched against some other guy that was
Speaker 3: a clown Urania, Jose Urania, And this is a.
Speaker 2: Good one to bet over, you know.
Speaker 3: And one of those guys were good and and and
Speaker 3: the other guy that the teams put their put their
Speaker 3: best men out there too, So you know, it just
Speaker 3: goes to show you that.
Speaker 2: On a one.
Speaker 3: That's why I think that month long bet for you
Speaker 3: is such a good idea when you when you can
Speaker 3: bet them, uh, because it's like, there's gonna be a
Speaker 3: day where you're gonna bet against flex and he's gonna
Speaker 3: go out there, he's going to strike out six and
Speaker 3: he's going to look like he did that day in
Speaker 3: spring training, and you know, just because they're they're major
Speaker 3: league pitchers, they can have that that upside. But so
Speaker 3: far he's he's really shown nothing guilt.
Speaker 1: Yeah, the the I just want to say this again
Speaker 1: for the monthly markets because we talked about on radio,
Speaker 1: but I'm not sure how many people here on the
Speaker 1: podcast side. I think it's a pretty high percentage of
Speaker 1: the beating the book listeners that don't listen to the
Speaker 1: radio side of things. So I just want to say
Speaker 1: this about these monthly markets. So in March slash April,
Speaker 1: I remember March had a few games scheduled. Bajor League
Speaker 1: Baseball season started in that month. Draft Kings, william Hill, Caesars,
Speaker 1: and Circa. Those three shops put up the most wins
Speaker 1: in that month. And I happened the day before the
Speaker 1: baseball season. One of the beautiful things about baseball still
Speaker 1: is so many different things you can bet on. And
Speaker 1: so the day before I don't think there was any tennis,
Speaker 1: so I wasn't distracted by handicapping. I just started diving
Speaker 1: into these apps and they had most wins for March April,
Speaker 1: and I was like, this is awesome because it's not
Speaker 1: you know, baseball seasone hundred and sixty two games, so
Speaker 1: you know you're gonna if you're not Mark Borchard and
Speaker 1: you're not you know, someone who's fully immersed. Day to day,
Speaker 1: you're gonna drift. But a and any given day, obviously,
Speaker 1: variants can happen, as you say, even Chris Flexing can
Speaker 1: show up. But a month long bet is so great.
Speaker 1: And we had a ball March April, uh famously one
Speaker 1: out away from cashing a sixty five to one on
Speaker 1: the Guardians, where our sole crushed by a home run
Speaker 1: by Victor Carratini, one out a way of the Astros
Speaker 1: that should be noted to beat us Guardians in May,
Speaker 1: I had at sixteen to one. They were two game shy.
Speaker 1: They happened to go two and five against the White
Speaker 1: Sox and Rockies that month, which sunk me. And then
Speaker 1: the Astros at twenty five to one at Caesar, seventeen
Speaker 1: to one at Circa they cash at Circa outright the
Speaker 1: dead heat with the Orioles at William Hill Caesars because
Speaker 1: there's different rules. Dead heat at william Hill. Caesar's tiebreaker
Speaker 1: at Circa is fewest, a fewest losses if you have
Speaker 1: the same amount of wins followed by best run differential.
Speaker 1: And so it's just so so great that length. And
Speaker 1: in July we have the Kansas City Royals Kansadity Royals
Speaker 1: started out, you know what, dyl.
Speaker 3: That's so funny that you bring that up, because I
Speaker 3: was I was like, on what plan? So yesterday I
Speaker 3: was looking at and I'm here in Arizona. If in
Speaker 3: case you guys forgot, undisclosed in Arizona. But the odds
Speaker 3: were up at Caesar's for the most wins in July,
Speaker 3: and the Royals were plus seven hundred. They were the favorite,
Speaker 3: and I thought, on what planet is this team the favorite?
Speaker 2: Because I vehemently disagree.
Speaker 3: With you on it, but I think the point is
Speaker 3: that we're making it. I think it's the cool bet.
Speaker 1: Let me let me interject. The reason that they're now
Speaker 1: the short shot seven to one is because I said
Speaker 1: it on the show, and so I got them at seventeen.
Speaker 2: To one, and hey, and that's that's that makes sense.
Speaker 1: Yeah, we completely moved it. And it closed at Circuit
Speaker 1: plus six fifty, and it closed at Caesar's at seven
Speaker 1: to one. And even I would tell you, well, you
Speaker 1: shouldn't bet it at that number, but that's why it
Speaker 1: ended up at that number.
Speaker 2: The reason it's crazy. You know, I was like, that's
Speaker 2: the what's my thought?
Speaker 3: Because I ran the simulations, and I'm like, I came
Speaker 3: up with my percentages and I'm like, what plan I go.
Speaker 3: I wonder in the back of my mind, I was like,
Speaker 3: I wonder if Gill bet bet the Royals, and I
Speaker 3: meant to ask it that before the show, But since
Speaker 3: you brought it up, I mean, that's that's what happened.
Speaker 3: That's what happened there, because no planet does the probability
Speaker 3: make sense the way it was priced yesterday at Caesars.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's you know, we had tons of people betting
Speaker 1: into it once I sort of announced it on air
Speaker 1: and not sort of, but did announce it on air,
Speaker 1: And that's I guess. When you have the success from
Speaker 1: month to month that we have had, even flirting with
Speaker 1: it even when we were winning, that's gonna happen. So
Speaker 1: we'll see. And the reason behind it, by the way,
Speaker 1: is not because I think the Kansas City Royals are
Speaker 1: the greatest team that's ever lived, but the schedule is
Speaker 1: so easy, and yeah, like the Astros in June, though,
Speaker 1: I have a bit of contrarian thinking with this bet
Speaker 1: as well, which is the Astros had the second to
Speaker 1: fewest amount of games scheduled in the month of June,
Speaker 1: the Mets had the fewest. It ended up being a
Speaker 1: Mets Astros series, with the Orioles being the other one.
Speaker 1: The Oriols had the most game scheduled. Those three teams
Speaker 1: ended up vying for the title of June. My reasoning
Speaker 1: again on taking the Royals. Royals have the second fewest
Speaker 1: games in July. Part of my reasoning is at CIRCA,
Speaker 1: the first highbreaker is fewest losses, and it's contrarian thinking
Speaker 1: because you will grab you Normally you would say, wow,
Speaker 1: who has the most game schedule? All the Mets do.
Speaker 1: It's twenty seven even in an All Star week. They
Speaker 1: literally have a game schedule and every every day besides
Speaker 1: the All Star Break the Mets. So the average person
Speaker 1: immediately thinks, well, I got to go to those teams
Speaker 1: to they have more opportunity to win. But with that
Speaker 1: tiebreaker rule at CIRCA, I don't think you should shy
Speaker 1: away from a team with a really easy schedule that
Speaker 1: plays four fewer games because if you can get the wins,
Speaker 1: you will automatically win the tiebreaker. And that's exactly what
Speaker 1: happened with the Astros. So part of that is betting
Speaker 1: theory as well.
Speaker 2: Yeah, no, but to your point, it's a great bet.
Speaker 3: And that's why I was fooling around with it yesterday
Speaker 3: because what I like to do is I like to
Speaker 3: put like five guys on one like an MVP market
Speaker 3: or five guys at a cy young market and kind
Speaker 3: of group them together and you usually can get plus money.
Speaker 2: But you know, with that particular bet, there was like I.
Speaker 3: Think eight teams that I could Orioles, Braves, Guardians, Twins, Pirates, Cubs,
Speaker 3: Raised Backs, and Blue Jays. We grouped them together and
Speaker 3: and you know, dutched it the right way. It's plus
Speaker 3: one sixty one. That's a fun bet. You know, that's
Speaker 3: a great bet. So uh, I think that that's something
Speaker 3: to kind of kind of look forward to down the
Speaker 3: down the road there did they still have a twenty
Speaker 3: six point one percent household on them, so they could
Speaker 3: do better, you know, but maybe we'll get some we'll
Speaker 3: get some more competition there, I think down the line.
Speaker 3: But props to these sports books for putting them out there.
Speaker 3: Really cool bet.
Speaker 1: Without a doubt, And I don't want I don't know
Speaker 1: why DraftKings bowed out after more April, so it's only
Speaker 1: now it's only circa and William Hill Caesars that have
Speaker 1: done it in May and June and July.
Speaker 3: So anyway, that's that's so funny though that that that
Speaker 3: that about that royal thing, because.
Speaker 1: I was just like, did I do that? That's the
Speaker 1: erkle thing? Did I do it?
Speaker 2: Is all this?
Speaker 1: Let's let's go to umpires umpires. Now, this is courtesy
Speaker 1: of vsin dot com. How about that Vegas Stats and
Speaker 1: Information Network with great umpire stats. Now, uh, these are
Speaker 1: the most reliable over umpires thus far this year. We're
Speaker 1: going to cross check this with Mark's historical data. So
Speaker 1: when this particular, when these particular folks have been behind
Speaker 1: home plate calling balls and strikes, the overs have hit
Speaker 1: at an unbelievable percentage. The number one over empire thus
Speaker 1: far this year is Andy Fletcher fourteen twelve excuse me,
Speaker 1: fourteen two and one. Remember you can obviously push on
Speaker 1: an over to total fourteen two and one to the over.
Speaker 1: Fourteen out of seventeen have gone over one push. Only
Speaker 1: two have gone under when he was behind home plate.
Speaker 1: Bruce Dreckman thirteen and three to the over, Lance Barrett
Speaker 1: eleven and six, Mark Ripperger eleven six and one, and
Speaker 1: Lance Barksdale at ten and eight to the over, so
Speaker 1: Fletcher Dreckman, Barrett Ripperger, and then a tick to the
Speaker 1: over on Barksdale. Any of those match historically.
Speaker 3: Lance Barksdale's number three from a base winner umpire er,
Speaker 3: if you will. And what I do is this is
Speaker 3: this goes back from the first game of twenty twenty two,
Speaker 3: so it's taken the twenty twenty two to twenty twenty
Speaker 3: three and then up to date twenty twenty four season,
Speaker 3: and you can actually come up with an e er
Speaker 3: based on walk percentage and strikeout percentage.
Speaker 2: And these guys have a decent sample. I think Barksdale.
Speaker 3: We're talking about how seventy three games that we're looking
Speaker 3: at and he's and and there's not going to be
Speaker 3: like a huge thing.
Speaker 2: It's not like, oh.
Speaker 3: He's gonna you know, if the totals nine, he's in
Speaker 3: an umpire the game the total should be eleven. It's
Speaker 3: a little bit less or more subtle than that, but
Speaker 3: still nine percent. He's nine percent from a run expectation
Speaker 3: standpoint based on those strikeout percentage and walk percentage, and
Speaker 3: that makes a difference. So like instead of it's if
Speaker 3: the totals eight instead of eight. It should be eight
Speaker 3: point eight, right, and so it does make a difference.
Speaker 3: Barksdale is is a over umpire that my top three
Speaker 3: over guys. I'll give you the top wagner, Alfonso Marquez,
Speaker 3: Barksdale and Carlos Tores are the four from a walk percentage,
Speaker 3: strikeout percentage standpoint that would I would not bet an
Speaker 3: under those guys. Let's just say that I would not
Speaker 3: bet an under if those guys were were were doing
Speaker 3: the game, and.
Speaker 1: That that's super actionable, right, Like this is super actionable again?
Speaker 1: Where do you find your umpire assignments now that stat
Speaker 1: fox is not around? I know I used to.
Speaker 3: Umpire umpire crew used to do it, but for me,
Speaker 3: I actually have a script that I run every every
Speaker 3: night after you know, and the first base umpire becomes
Speaker 3: the home plate umpire and I put that into my model.
Speaker 3: But uh uh, they it's really tough, like some of
Speaker 3: these sites are, you know, rest in peace, stat Fox
Speaker 3: that was a good site man, talk about two thousand
Speaker 3: and six. Those guys were around in two thousand and six.
Speaker 3: So it's it's kind of sad because for the show
Speaker 3: I was going over there because there's some stuff I
Speaker 3: do for the show at stat Fox, and stat Fox
Speaker 3: is no more so rest in peace, Good job guys,
Speaker 3: and too bad that you're not there.
Speaker 1: Anymore boring out of forty for stat Fox Dr Gangstaline.
Speaker 1: So if you can find reliable umpire assignments, if you're
Speaker 1: not Mark Borchard and you can find them, it maybe
Speaker 1: it you know, listen, maybe it takes you off a game,
Speaker 1: I would say, is the best way to do it.
Speaker 1: If you have like an under on Andy Fletcher behind
Speaker 1: home plate or in the case of the crosscheck we
Speaker 1: just did. Historically, if you have an under an a
Speaker 1: Lance Barksdale game, maybe you should think twice, is what
Speaker 1: I'm saying, because and I don't know that we you know,
Speaker 1: we haven't looked at ballparks with these guys this year.
Speaker 1: But if Lance Barksdale is historically historically speaking in overump,
Speaker 1: and here he is again as an overump, it's ballpark resistant.
Speaker 1: It doesn't matter. His strike zone might be the size
Speaker 1: of a thimble, and that's why these games are reliably over.
Speaker 1: On the other side this year to the under minimum
Speaker 1: seven games behind home plate, let's say Chris Conroy two
Speaker 1: seven and one, so seven, So basically seven to two
Speaker 1: and one to the under. John Bacon five and two
Speaker 1: to the under, Jim Wolf six and three to the under,
Speaker 1: Jeremy ray five and three to the under, Alex Tosi
Speaker 1: thirteen and four to the under. That's actually the winner.
Speaker 1: Excuse me, DJ Rayburn eleven and four to the under.
Speaker 1: That's actually second most under. Also Jonathan Para seven and four,
Speaker 1: seven four one to the under. There you go. Oh
Speaker 1: and one more sorry, John Libk eleven and four to
Speaker 1: the under. So actually one, two and three are Alex
Speaker 1: Tosi and then Libka and Rayburn. Any of those historically
Speaker 1: said something.
Speaker 2: Did you see, say Chris Conroy, Yeah, that was.
Speaker 1: The first one. I said, seven too and one.
Speaker 3: Yeah, okay, yeah, that guy is number three, uh base winner.
Speaker 3: On to the underside. Bill Miller, of course number one,
Speaker 3: and Doug Adding is number.
Speaker 2: Two all time. Yeah. Yeah, so Chris Miller just strike
Speaker 2: sounds insane. I was like, I mean, yeah, strike.
Speaker 1: Yeah. So these guys must have these massive strike zones,
Speaker 1: right like it's just like, oh, that's two inches off
Speaker 1: the blade or whatever it is. Eh, they'll call a strike.
Speaker 1: By the way, your parting words, we never got a
Speaker 1: chance for you to say goodbye to Angel Hernandez. Would
Speaker 1: you like to say anything?
Speaker 2: I'm glad the guy's gone. I mean, that's good, you know,
Speaker 2: it's so great.
Speaker 1: All right? Should we do first fives? And first let's
Speaker 1: do first fives?
Speaker 2: All right? Sounds good?
Speaker 1: All right, first fives. Let's see here first fives and
Speaker 1: I'm gonna do these at vsin dot com and Visa
Speaker 1: dot com corroborates with the other first five site. I see.
Speaker 1: And again the numbers are going to be slightly off
Speaker 1: in terms of the profit and loss, because again it
Speaker 1: depends what are you using. Are you using closing line,
Speaker 1: opening line? Are you using one? From one sportsbook to another?
Speaker 1: But here are the top three most profitable first five
Speaker 1: teams in all of baseball this year. On the money line,
Speaker 1: Number one by a mile, the Philadelphia Phillies. You'd be
Speaker 1: up twenty plus units on the Phillies, And that makes
Speaker 1: sense if you think about their starting pitching. I might
Speaker 1: be the best top three in all of baseball three
Speaker 1: deep on a team. Phillies are up twenty point six
Speaker 1: units if you bet them fifty five twenty three and
Speaker 1: seven is their first five record. Remember seven, you can
Speaker 1: push obviously, in first five, fifty five, twenty three and seven.
Speaker 1: Next closest is the Cleveland Guardians. You'd be up nine
Speaker 1: point one five units on them. They're not even halfway
Speaker 1: there to the Phillies, but still great. Baltimore is third,
Speaker 1: eight point sixty five units to the positive. And here
Speaker 1: is where it gets interesting, and this is why we
Speaker 1: do this exercise. The fifth place team is the Yankees.
Speaker 1: Can you tell me what the fourth place team is?
Speaker 2: And that's the White Socks, isn't it?
Speaker 1: Yes, which we I believe we talked about in Q one.
Speaker 1: Also right where we're like, this is what makes baseball
Speaker 1: betting so fascinating A team as crappy and we just
Speaker 1: talked about them on the money line. They are hemorrhaging money.
Speaker 1: Mark had them thirty units down on the money line
Speaker 1: in a full game of baseball. They're having the worst
Speaker 1: season ever. But if you bet them on the first five,
Speaker 1: it's the fourth most profitable team. So again, what's the takeaway?
Speaker 1: Their bullpen is hot garbage.
Speaker 3: Yeah, and there's you know, talk about a variety of
Speaker 3: betting that's been available. We have a guy in the show,
Speaker 3: I'm gonna plug my own show, Gilha. Please the MLB
Speaker 3: show Bet a sponsor by bet Us, every day at
Speaker 3: eight am Pacific. We have a guy that plays something
Speaker 3: called the double result or you know, if you played
Speaker 3: in soccer, it's halftime full time and you can actually
Speaker 3: you can actually bet the White Sox first half and
Speaker 3: then to lose the game, which is a nice a
Speaker 3: nice price from a risk versus reward standpoint, a good
Speaker 3: opportunity and just kind of for me, And I'm kind
Speaker 3: of there, like almost, I'm getting there, maybe seventy percent
Speaker 3: of the way to just doing a five inning handicap
Speaker 3: and then a rest of game handicap and then for
Speaker 3: for as far as the presentation on a daily daily basis,
Speaker 3: combining those. But I think that there's a lot to uh,
Speaker 3: the five inning stats. Personally, I think that, uh, you know,
Speaker 3: some guys are that look at the Tampa Bay Rays.
Speaker 3: They're down at the bottom from a from a profit
Speaker 3: standpoint on first five, but they they historically have been
Speaker 3: better in the second half of the game. So I
Speaker 3: think that there's something there. Uh. It takes a lot
Speaker 3: of work to you know, in all in all honesty,
Speaker 3: it takes a lot of work to put those together.
Speaker 3: But I'm getting close skills so, but but I think
Speaker 3: that I think the five inning bet has a lot
Speaker 3: of potential.
Speaker 1: Personally, I'm fascinated by the way. Shame on me for
Speaker 1: not plugging your bet Us show at the top. I'm
Speaker 1: glad you did right there the whiteside that that industry.
Speaker 1: What your what your buddy does there where he bets
Speaker 1: White Sox first half and then he fades him second half. Right,
Speaker 1: First of all, how many books is that available in?
Speaker 3: You know it's available where I bet. It's available on
Speaker 3: a lot of books. It's available at bet us. Okay,
Speaker 3: I might as well give them a plug while I'm
Speaker 3: at it. And uh, it's it's where I where I
Speaker 3: bet a couple different outlets where I bet it's available
Speaker 3: so you can get it. And props builder has it too.
Speaker 3: If your book has props Builder, you can bet that.
Speaker 2: It's called a.
Speaker 1: Double result double result.
Speaker 3: It could be sometimes our halftime full time because it
Speaker 3: comes over from the soccer market and it's a cool bet.
Speaker 3: It's a good a good thing to have in your arsenal.
Speaker 1: And halftime is through five basically in baseball. But you
Speaker 1: know that White Sox thing. I wonder how many times
Speaker 1: that's hit because again, their record this year in you know,
Speaker 1: your normal newspaper standings in real life, they're twenty four
Speaker 1: and sixty three. They're horrible, twenty four and sixty three.
Speaker 1: Their first five record, oh my god, is thirty five,
Speaker 1: forty one and eleven. So like again, you're winning your
Speaker 1: fair share. How many times those have probably hit together?
Speaker 1: I mean, I'm guessing, just off the top of my head,
Speaker 1: it's got to be fifteen to twenty times at least, right,
Speaker 1: So yeah, yeah, yeah, I think I'm being conservative, probably
Speaker 1: more than that, So it's probably, yeah, it's probably more
Speaker 1: than that. Actually, it's probably who knows, it could be.
Speaker 1: It could be close to thirty times that it's happened anyway,
Speaker 1: that's what's interesting about that first five. By the way,
Speaker 1: the worst first five teams on the money line, Oakland
Speaker 1: A's are the worst. And now Oklanda's would have cost
Speaker 1: you twenty three units this year betting them first five
Speaker 1: second worst. Can you believe this? The Tampa Bay Rays,
Speaker 1: God bless, and then they come back and they win
Speaker 1: one run games all the time.
Speaker 3: Yeah, And that's why that's the I think that's the
Speaker 3: reason why you should you should have those I think
Speaker 3: you should separate the game and into two halves.
Speaker 1: Yes, yes, it's two different games. Marlin's right behind them third,
Speaker 1: nineteen point eight eight units to the negative Angels, fourth,
Speaker 1: Giants fifth. That doesn't surprise me because of the starting pitching.
Speaker 1: Those are the four were five worst on the money
Speaker 1: line first five. By the way, if you cared on
Speaker 1: the run line first five, this is giving minus a
Speaker 1: half a run. The Phillies still Phillies still number one,
Speaker 1: twenty four units up, and Cleveland right behind them also
Speaker 1: twenty four units up twenty four point four. Actually, it's
Speaker 1: the Guardians by a tick twenty four point one two
Speaker 1: versus twenty four point zero zero. They are far and away.
Speaker 1: It's not even close. Who's third, who's third? The third
Speaker 1: place team hasn't even won. Oh no, Nationals are third.
Speaker 1: On the run line, Nationals would have you up nine units.
Speaker 1: Nationals and the Royals on the run line. I don't
Speaker 1: know who's betting run line first five, but some people
Speaker 1: are reliably. But if you did it every game, those
Speaker 1: are the Exercises and the Phillies and the Guardians are
Speaker 1: blowing away the competition the worst. No surprise, the Marlins,
Speaker 1: followed by the angels followed by the twins. All of
Speaker 1: those it would have cost you thirty units. Please don't
Speaker 1: do that.
Speaker 3: And then you're you're getting those stats just to just
Speaker 3: to control. You're getting them from from Vson, from Visa visent,
Speaker 3: let's plug Vison dot com.
Speaker 2: All we're at it.
Speaker 1: I got the I mentioned it that the umpires I'm
Speaker 1: getting from Vson now and the first five I'm getting
Speaker 1: from Vson now. I get the first five from somewhere
Speaker 1: else too, but also from vson dot com.
Speaker 2: Okay, so I wanted to complete this thought here.
Speaker 3: Yeah, they So the White Socks, believe it or not,
Speaker 3: they've been ahead in thirty four games after five innings.
Speaker 3: They've lost sixteen of those. Half of the games they live.
Speaker 1: So the answer sixteen. The answer is sixteen.
Speaker 3: Okay, so sixteen White Sox opponent like that, that bet
Speaker 3: plays a lot better than than two or even money,
Speaker 3: that's for sure.
Speaker 2: So that's that might be an idea for everybody, right.
Speaker 1: So give me an idea. So, so those sixteen times,
Speaker 1: what would you say the average price that you probably
Speaker 1: got on that to hit, it's got to be like
Speaker 1: a huge plus money.
Speaker 3: It's like six hundred and seven yeah, yeah, yeah, I
Speaker 3: mean it's they're the team. Opposite team usually is right
Speaker 3: right about plus six hundred to eight hundred.
Speaker 1: So's so so let's just be conservative and call it
Speaker 1: six to one. Let's not let's be right in the middle.
Speaker 1: Let's say it's seven to one sixteen times. Good god,
Speaker 1: I mean, what's that quick math? That's uh, that's ninety
Speaker 1: six that's what one hundred and twelve units? Yeah, good god?
Speaker 2: Pretty crazy.
Speaker 1: By the way, how many people do you think listening
Speaker 1: to this podcast, that's the only thing they're going to
Speaker 1: bet after this? That's all. They're like White Sox verse
Speaker 1: five White Sox to lose double what is it called
Speaker 1: double result?
Speaker 2: It's not a bad idea with that team.
Speaker 3: That team's that bullpen has been They've been the worst
Speaker 3: bullpen by my ratings the whole season. I don't know
Speaker 3: if they've ever gotten out of the cellar.
Speaker 1: So that's incredible. That is that's an interesting thing. All right,
Speaker 1: should we do first first innings? Let's close it out
Speaker 1: with first innings. This is proprietary. This I if people
Speaker 1: wanted to find this, I wouldn't even know where to
Speaker 1: point them, would you.
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, you know if you're looking.
Speaker 3: I think you do you do picture wOBA in the
Speaker 3: first inning.
Speaker 1: I'm doing. Yeah, what I'm doing is picture oppose. Yeah,
Speaker 1: the pictures opposing on base percentage. So what the batters
Speaker 1: are doing against the picture?
Speaker 2: Yeah?
Speaker 1: Obp yeah yeah, no, no.
Speaker 2: You you know.
Speaker 3: One of the things with fangraps is they have a
Speaker 3: thing called split leader boards, and you can go there
Speaker 3: and just just filter it down for first inning.
Speaker 1: Okay, I didn't even know they had that.
Speaker 3: That's pretty much all you have to do, you know.
Speaker 3: You you show all filters first inning and then run
Speaker 3: it and it's it's it's pretty cool.
Speaker 2: It's it's a it's a good, good source.
Speaker 1: All right. So I did minimum fifty plate appearances here
Speaker 1: against the absolute worst picture in the first inning this
Speaker 1: year is Joe Musgrove for ninety yeah four nine on
Speaker 1: base against.
Speaker 2: You went fifty plays appearances.
Speaker 1: I did go fifty. Should I go more?
Speaker 2: So?
Speaker 3: Now there's a guy that has forty two Seeksto Sanchez.
Speaker 3: I just wanted to throw him out there. I love
Speaker 3: the man sixty he's at five thirty seven.
Speaker 1: Oh my god, at fifty. I've got Joe Muskgrove the
Speaker 1: worst at four ninety one against Austin Gomber for fifty
Speaker 1: two against Hunter Brown, four thirty eight against Keaton Win
Speaker 1: of the Giants, four thirty three against then Charlie Morton
Speaker 1: four to oh eight against Casey Myz, Griffin, Canning and
Speaker 1: Randy Vasquez the only others north of four hundred on
Speaker 1: base against.
Speaker 3: There's one in there with with he's got what does
Speaker 3: he got? Forty one total batter's face Walker Buehler for
Speaker 3: sixty three OBP in the first inning. So wow, I get,
Speaker 3: I get it's kind of fine to Bethos Dodger game
Speaker 3: first innings. I admit that I've done that before, but I.
Speaker 2: Don't know if that you know.
Speaker 3: The thing is, it's like these are stats, like you
Speaker 3: always make the disclaimer these are descriptive stats, and is
Speaker 3: it predictive moving forward? But I think, I mean, from
Speaker 3: a complexity standpoint, it would probably be better to what
Speaker 3: is their lifetime average in the first inning, because I
Speaker 3: think that there is some something to that.
Speaker 2: Gil.
Speaker 3: I do think that there's something to you know, guys
Speaker 3: get off to a bad start and then they kind
Speaker 3: of settle in. But like that would be a little
Speaker 3: bit more complex. I think could do from a predictive standpoint.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and I should say, you know, I used to
Speaker 1: bet first innings yes no, for years and years and years,
Speaker 1: bet them very profitably. I have not in the last
Speaker 1: two or three years. And I am told that if
Speaker 1: I had continued to do to do what I was doing,
Speaker 1: then it wouldn't be nearly as profitable. Jason Winingarten and
Speaker 1: I talk about this because I would bet, you know,
Speaker 1: when two aces would face each other, I would bet
Speaker 1: yes runs to score, and that we would get like
Speaker 1: plus one fifty five on it sometimes right when two
Speaker 1: aces were facing each other, and it used to be
Speaker 1: super profitable. You're still getting the same numbers, Jason is
Speaker 1: telling me. But it's just not coming home nearly as much.
Speaker 1: But I just want to make the disclaimer, this is
Speaker 1: not how we bet them. We didn't. We didn't look
Speaker 1: at these picture numbers and say, oh, well, just because
Speaker 1: this guy is that, we're gonna bet this. But for
Speaker 1: a lot of people it is still fascinating. I just
Speaker 1: want to point out the pictures the contrary of that,
Speaker 1: the kind of the converse of that, which is, these
Speaker 1: are the pictures that do the best in the first
Speaker 1: inning in terms of on base against and he guesses
Speaker 1: as to who is the best picture in all of
Speaker 1: baseball on base against. It's a theme that we have
Speaker 1: going that we just talked about.
Speaker 2: Arret Crochet one forty three, Garrett.
Speaker 1: Croche one forty three. Bang, it's amazing it. Dude is
Speaker 1: unhittable the first what are you thinking?
Speaker 2: Did you have this guy?
Speaker 3: You have Chris flex I talked about amazing. Chris Flexen
Speaker 3: at one eighty three is fourth. Crazy, Chris Flexen is fourth.
Speaker 3: So the dude that is hemorrhaged. And again, you know
Speaker 3: it's not his fault right now, all it's not all
Speaker 3: his fault that his team sucks all around him. So
Speaker 3: he's the biggest hemorrhae of all starting pitchers. If you
Speaker 3: bet in Bizarro every single game he started this year,
Speaker 3: you'd have lost the most money more than any other
Speaker 3: pitcher doing that same exercise with And yet he's the
Speaker 3: fourth best first inning pitcher in all of baseball.
Speaker 2: Wow.
Speaker 1: Tyler Glass now is second to Garrett Crochet, Aaron Nola third,
Speaker 1: then Flexen, followed by Raynaldo Lopez. Man. The Mariners have
Speaker 1: some great starters, Zach Wheeler, Michael Waka Tanner. How Tanner,
Speaker 1: Biby Mike Michael King and showed a Immanaga closing out
Speaker 1: the uh the top group. Pretty amazing.
Speaker 3: I'm still trying to figure out how Flexen, you know,
Speaker 3: and looking like like OBP like second inning through fifth,
Speaker 3: and he's not. He's you think that the guy would
Speaker 3: be totally horrible. He'd be the you know, and at
Speaker 3: least the thirtieth worst pictures from an OBP pe standpoint
Speaker 3: in those innings, and he's not there either.
Speaker 1: So it's it's interesting because the deal with that guy. Well, so,
Speaker 1: but that checks out right, the fact that Flexen and
Speaker 1: Crochet are there checks out with our first five stuff,
Speaker 1: which is okay, well, there's an inning where nothing happens
Speaker 1: when those two guys are on, right, you're putting up
Speaker 1: a zero basically. So now you're down to four innings
Speaker 1: where you're going to try to beat the White Sox
Speaker 1: first five. So it just it just becomes a numbers
Speaker 1: game like that. So again, all this stuff is just
Speaker 1: for you and me anyway, And I believe all the nerdis,
Speaker 1: you know, the nerd hard o baseball guys listening to
Speaker 1: the Show and Girls, that kind of stuff is fascinating
Speaker 1: and really can translate like that white Sox thing. You know,
Speaker 1: we talk about the ultimate sustainable and non sustainable. That
Speaker 1: actually seems sustainable to me. That they will continue to
Speaker 1: be good in the first five and they will continue
Speaker 1: to suck thereafter.
Speaker 3: Right, Yeah, No, it's not a bad thought because offensively
Speaker 3: they're challenged and bullpen wise they're challenged.
Speaker 2: So it's really not a bad look. I don't think.
Speaker 1: Yeah, anyway, always interesting, Mark.
Speaker 2: Oh, if you want to talk, if you want to talk, bizarre.
Speaker 3: World, if that's all you did this year, you you
Speaker 3: could you could still bet it and be profitable at
Speaker 3: the end of the season if you lost every game
Speaker 3: from from here on out.
Speaker 1: So oh, I know. Oh if you if you had
Speaker 1: been betting it all year and you lost every time
Speaker 1: from now on, you'd still be profitable.
Speaker 2: That's right, I think? So yeah, I do, right.
Speaker 1: Because you'd only lose what would we decided it was
Speaker 1: what one hundred and twelve? Yeah, you'd only lose like
Speaker 1: seventy five eighty more times.
Speaker 2: I don't think. Yeah, that's about it. That's about it.
Speaker 1: There you go, Wow, that is that is very interesting.
Speaker 1: Besides that, what's the single biggest takeaway the Umps those
Speaker 1: ump names that we said Lance Barksdale on the over
Speaker 1: and then Conroy on the under.
Speaker 3: I think that if you guys played Bill Miller and
Speaker 3: over when Bill Miller's.
Speaker 2: The umpire, you're just you're just massa kiss. Don't do it.
Speaker 2: Just just don't do it. No, I think that I
Speaker 2: think what we can take.
Speaker 3: From from the shows is that there's there's a lot
Speaker 3: of different things that you have to do to be
Speaker 3: effective at handicapping baseball.
Speaker 2: So I think, for for for me, gil uh.
Speaker 3: And one of the beauties, I think that that what
Speaker 3: you're doing is you're saying, Okay, well, I can't be
Speaker 3: everything on this. I can't handicap it the way and
Speaker 3: and you can't because you have so many responsibilities the
Speaker 3: voice of sports betting for for Vison, that's a hell
Speaker 3: of a responsibility. So so but you've you've said, hey,
Speaker 3: this is something that I enjoy, this is something that
Speaker 3: obviously you're good at. You're you're you're knocking on you
Speaker 3: won one last month and you're knocking on the door
Speaker 3: the other two months. So that would be my takeaway
Speaker 3: is find something that you love, find something that you enjoy,
Speaker 3: and just handicap the.
Speaker 2: Hell out of it and be really good at it.
Speaker 3: I'll pay you money and and call me because I'll
Speaker 3: be if you're really good at something, I'll pay you
Speaker 3: to to get your picks.
Speaker 1: There you go look at that, and I will absolutely
Speaker 1: root out reach out rather to Carl Sack. You mentioned
Speaker 1: Killer Sports Carl Sack, who is a good friend. Carl
Speaker 1: and I. I used to work with Doctor Bob. I
Speaker 1: would do baseball for Doctor Bob. Carl would do the
Speaker 1: NBA as NBA Guru for Doctor Bob. I had a
Speaker 1: couple great MLB seasons, but I also had a couple
Speaker 1: sideways ones. He never had a bad season in basketball.
Speaker 1: He was a totals better. It still is a totals
Speaker 1: better in the NBA, the best I've ever seen. He
Speaker 1: moves markets when he releases his picks. And now he
Speaker 1: is doing this killer sports site. So I will absolutely
Speaker 1: get your number to Carl and you guys hook up
Speaker 1: because you two should know each other. And nice of
Speaker 1: you to give him a shout out because that site
Speaker 1: is very Yeah.
Speaker 2: No, no, no, you know what I've learning this thing.
Speaker 3: You know, when you first get into this industry, you're
Speaker 3: they're kind of a little defensive and admittedly, I you
Speaker 3: know somebody that's good, You're like, oh, I'm better than
Speaker 3: he is, you know, But as you get older and
Speaker 3: you age, you really appreciate the beauty of the way
Speaker 3: other people handicap and the site is gorgeous. The database,
Speaker 3: I know what, all the stuff that's behind that, it's
Speaker 3: just wonderful and so like like, yeah, I mean if
Speaker 3: if he reaches out to me, it'll it'll be a
Speaker 3: happy day for me, Gil.
Speaker 1: Yeah. Man, And that's how you and I have not
Speaker 1: to not to make this corny at the end, but
Speaker 1: that's how you and I first connected. We were the
Speaker 1: only two normal human beings and where we were right,
Speaker 1: So that's something.
Speaker 3: Yeah, there's a lot of there's a lot of defensiveness,
Speaker 3: I'm better than you and stuff and this, yeah, exactly,
Speaker 3: and it's it's it's too bad too, because I think
Speaker 3: that people worked a little bit better collectively. And we're
Speaker 3: all competitive and sometimes we're stubborn, but I think if
Speaker 3: people work together we could we could.
Speaker 2: Be so much better. But anyway else, my philosophy for the.
Speaker 1: Day that is that extends beyond sports betting, right, like
Speaker 1: if they if you ever see these things on like
Speaker 1: TikTok or Instagram or whatever. And every once in a
Speaker 1: while you'll run into this thing. We asked, you know,
Speaker 1: thirty old people or fifty old people, what's the biggest
Speaker 1: piece of advice they could dispense to young people and
Speaker 1: to a man and woman that advice. As always, when
Speaker 1: I was younger, I stressed and cared and spent way
Speaker 1: too much energy on so many meaningless things. And that
Speaker 1: what you just described, right like this, the animosity that
Speaker 1: sports betters tend to have with others is just top
Speaker 1: of list in our little corner of the world, right
Speaker 1: like that would be the advice. Just like it's so stupid,
Speaker 1: it's so pointless. So anyway, exactly a bit of advice,
Speaker 1: a bit of sage wisdom that's redundant.
Speaker 3: I think we're getting we're getting to that point where
Speaker 3: it is I think you know what you know to
Speaker 3: be serious as you age, you realize, you know, guy,
Speaker 3: I was kind of an asshole back then, and uh
Speaker 3: and and not that I ever was a complete jerk,
Speaker 3: you know, because because we got along all the time.
Speaker 3: But I think that that really being self aware and
Speaker 3: being like, hey, you know, I maybe I'm not the
Speaker 3: best guy. You know, maybe I'm just I'm the twelfth
Speaker 3: best guy. Maybe there's twelve guys that are better than me.
Speaker 3: I want to learn from them, you know.
Speaker 2: And I think that I.
Speaker 3: Think that there's always an opportunity to learn from somebody,
Speaker 3: even if they're doing things differently than you.
Speaker 1: Go. I think that you were never an asshole, by
Speaker 1: the way, appreciate that. Yeah, I don't remember you ever
Speaker 1: being that. I really don't think you've.
Speaker 2: Never been an asshole. Leader.
Speaker 3: I love you, And my wife loves you too, and
Speaker 3: and and she's she's kind of a she's kind of
Speaker 3: a hard judge of character, but she's like, oh, yeah, Gil,
Speaker 3: he's he's great.
Speaker 2: I love Gil.
Speaker 1: So thank you so much, thank you, Thank you so much, Lisa.
Speaker 1: I appreciate it. Uh, Mark enjoy. I really appreciate doing this.
Speaker 1: We will meet again for Q three. We'll do all
Speaker 1: the radio stuff stuff in between. Enjoy your Fourth of July.
Speaker 3: Absolutely, we're gonna have a hot dog contest on the
Speaker 3: show tomorrow. I think we're gonna all we're gonna eat
Speaker 3: hot dogs on the show. So it'll be fun.
Speaker 1: Might be our last Fourth of July as a democracy.
Speaker 1: As a democracy, Mark, so enjoy it eating hot dogs
Speaker 1: and hamburgers.
Speaker 2: Well, you know, in all seriousness.
Speaker 3: So I'm gonna plug another one because we had a
Speaker 3: hot dogg Eating Show betting contest. Bet Us has lines
Speaker 3: on the Hot dogg Eating Show. We were twenty three
Speaker 3: and three on last year's show. I can't I can't
Speaker 3: promise that. I can't promise that this year. But the
Speaker 3: show in itself is pretty cool. We talk about the
Speaker 3: different betting markets for the Hot dog Eating Contest and
Speaker 3: it's it's a fun show.
Speaker 1: So know Joey Chestnut this year, so it must be
Speaker 1: that would mean there's more opportunity.
Speaker 3: Right Esper, Wherry and web are the are the three
Speaker 3: favorites and there yeah, there's there was a there's three
Speaker 3: guys on the on the show and we all had
Speaker 3: a different, different choice on who's gonna win. So yeah,
Speaker 3: it made it handicapping a little bit different for this season,
Speaker 3: for this for this year year's.
Speaker 2: Hot Dog Eating Contest.
Speaker 1: Do you watch it? It's kind of disgusting to watch.
Speaker 3: Right, Oh, absolutely, especially you know when you when you
Speaker 3: when you're leveraged on it, when you have a little
Speaker 3: little action on you, you watch it.
Speaker 1: So yeah, Mark, thank you, as always at base Winner,
Speaker 1: baswinner dot com, the bet Us Show. Where can people
Speaker 1: find that?
Speaker 3: Just go to YouTube, bet us MLB and and we
Speaker 3: will be there and we will be there every day
Speaker 3: at eight am.
Speaker 1: All right, hopefully there was food for thought. I know
Speaker 1: there was plenty of That white sox thing is great.
Speaker 1: Thanks for listening, Enjoy your July fourth, Good luck with
Speaker 1: all your bet