1 00:00:02,480 --> 00:00:07,720 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:09,640 --> 00:00:12,840 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Daybreak Asia podcast. I'm Doug Krisner. 3 00:00:12,920 --> 00:00:15,400 Speaker 2: You can join Brian Curtis and myself for the stories, 4 00:00:15,440 --> 00:00:18,560 Speaker 2: making news and moving markets in the APAC region. You 5 00:00:18,600 --> 00:00:21,439 Speaker 2: can subscribe to the show anywhere you get your podcast 6 00:00:21,520 --> 00:00:24,919 Speaker 2: and always on Bloomberg Radio, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the 7 00:00:24,920 --> 00:00:26,080 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Business App. 8 00:00:29,640 --> 00:00:32,879 Speaker 3: Joining us now is Peter Elstrom, Bloomberg Executive Editor for 9 00:00:32,960 --> 00:00:36,519 Speaker 3: Asia Technology. To take a look at the chip story 10 00:00:36,640 --> 00:00:39,080 Speaker 3: right across the globe here, Peter, thanks very much. We've 11 00:00:39,080 --> 00:00:41,720 Speaker 3: talked quite a bit this morning about the US possibly 12 00:00:41,760 --> 00:00:46,919 Speaker 3: putting CXMT on the entity list, and we'll also we've 13 00:00:46,920 --> 00:00:50,160 Speaker 3: talked a little bit about the chip fund that China 14 00:00:50,240 --> 00:00:53,159 Speaker 3: has put together twenty seven billion dollars, not so much 15 00:00:53,159 --> 00:00:55,880 Speaker 3: about TSMC, so we can talk about all three. But 16 00:00:56,120 --> 00:00:59,560 Speaker 3: TSMC set to win something like around five billion dollars 17 00:00:59,600 --> 00:01:03,279 Speaker 3: in grant for the US chip plant. This is part 18 00:01:03,320 --> 00:01:07,920 Speaker 3: of a big reshoring story by the Biden administration. If 19 00:01:07,920 --> 00:01:10,480 Speaker 3: we just take a step back, how is that overall 20 00:01:10,560 --> 00:01:12,280 Speaker 3: reshoring going in your view? 21 00:01:13,600 --> 00:01:17,360 Speaker 4: Yeah, so you're exactly right. There is a huge chip 22 00:01:17,360 --> 00:01:21,360 Speaker 4: war going on. Specifically between the United States and China, 23 00:01:21,840 --> 00:01:24,520 Speaker 4: but more broadly than that, there are other countries involved 24 00:01:24,560 --> 00:01:27,399 Speaker 4: in trying to build their own domestic chip industries too, 25 00:01:27,920 --> 00:01:30,839 Speaker 4: and this dates back to really a couple of different things. 26 00:01:30,920 --> 00:01:33,679 Speaker 4: During the COVID pandemic, there were disruptions to the supply 27 00:01:33,840 --> 00:01:36,760 Speaker 4: chain that created all sorts of problems for the automotive industry, 28 00:01:36,760 --> 00:01:40,280 Speaker 4: in particular where they couldn't get enough chips. And beyond that, 29 00:01:40,360 --> 00:01:43,200 Speaker 4: there's some security concerns because right now most of the 30 00:01:43,240 --> 00:01:46,640 Speaker 4: advanced chips in the world are made in Taiwan, followed 31 00:01:46,680 --> 00:01:50,800 Speaker 4: by South Korea. So the United States, Japan, Europe, and 32 00:01:50,880 --> 00:01:54,840 Speaker 4: China all are trying to build up their domestic chip industries. 33 00:01:55,080 --> 00:01:57,240 Speaker 4: At this point, the US has been off to a 34 00:01:57,280 --> 00:02:00,720 Speaker 4: pretty slow start in terms of making that happen. They, 35 00:02:00,760 --> 00:02:04,600 Speaker 4: of course, the Biden administration unveiled the Chips Act. That's 36 00:02:04,600 --> 00:02:07,520 Speaker 4: an effort to subsidize some of these efforts with billions 37 00:02:07,560 --> 00:02:10,280 Speaker 4: and billions of dollars. What we're hearing about now is 38 00:02:10,320 --> 00:02:13,400 Speaker 4: that the Biden administration is making some progress. They're getting 39 00:02:13,400 --> 00:02:15,840 Speaker 4: close to being able to award some of the really 40 00:02:15,880 --> 00:02:18,760 Speaker 4: big numbers to the leading chip companies in the world. 41 00:02:18,919 --> 00:02:22,679 Speaker 4: So TSMC is the producer of the most advanced chips 42 00:02:22,720 --> 00:02:25,000 Speaker 4: in the world to make them for Apple and for Nvidia. 43 00:02:25,280 --> 00:02:28,639 Speaker 4: They've been talking about building this fab in the US 44 00:02:28,919 --> 00:02:31,480 Speaker 4: and now what we're hearing from our sources is that 45 00:02:31,520 --> 00:02:34,920 Speaker 4: they could get more than five billion dollars to subsidize that. 46 00:02:34,919 --> 00:02:38,000 Speaker 4: That's a lot of money, obviously, but it comes as 47 00:02:38,040 --> 00:02:41,440 Speaker 4: they plan on investing about forty billion dollars into two 48 00:02:41,600 --> 00:02:45,200 Speaker 4: chip fabs in Arizona to help them build more advanced 49 00:02:45,240 --> 00:02:47,639 Speaker 4: chips within the United States, which, as you're saying, that's 50 00:02:47,639 --> 00:02:50,919 Speaker 4: part of this on shoring effort by the United States 51 00:02:50,960 --> 00:02:52,880 Speaker 4: to make sure that it does have a steady supply 52 00:02:52,919 --> 00:02:55,720 Speaker 4: of these semiconductors that are so important for the economy. 53 00:02:55,800 --> 00:02:58,480 Speaker 2: It's a fascinating story when you think back fifty years 54 00:02:58,480 --> 00:03:01,680 Speaker 2: ago that American chip makers were actually offshoring a lot 55 00:03:01,720 --> 00:03:05,520 Speaker 2: of production. I think Hong Kong initially was a big beneficiary. 56 00:03:05,560 --> 00:03:08,680 Speaker 2: Then it migrated to Japan, I think before Taiwan. But 57 00:03:08,760 --> 00:03:12,280 Speaker 2: if you look at the runway that's necessary, the period 58 00:03:12,280 --> 00:03:15,280 Speaker 2: of time that has to take place in order for 59 00:03:15,600 --> 00:03:19,760 Speaker 2: the initial investment to happen construction, you need to get 60 00:03:19,760 --> 00:03:23,280 Speaker 2: a very experienced labor force at work here. I mean, 61 00:03:23,639 --> 00:03:25,639 Speaker 2: what is it going to take two years before these 62 00:03:25,680 --> 00:03:27,079 Speaker 2: plants are fully operational. 63 00:03:28,200 --> 00:03:31,400 Speaker 4: Yeah, it's interesting to see some of the contrasts here. 64 00:03:31,400 --> 00:03:34,920 Speaker 4: In Japan. The Japanese government has also been trying to 65 00:03:34,920 --> 00:03:38,720 Speaker 4: build up its domestic chip industry, and the speed with 66 00:03:38,800 --> 00:03:42,200 Speaker 4: which they've moved is sort of startling compared to the 67 00:03:42,320 --> 00:03:45,720 Speaker 4: United States in particular. So TSMC, again, the leading chip 68 00:03:45,760 --> 00:03:48,160 Speaker 4: producer in the world, has built most of its fabs 69 00:03:48,240 --> 00:03:51,040 Speaker 4: in Taiwan. In the past, it has agreed to build 70 00:03:52,320 --> 00:03:55,080 Speaker 4: in Japan and in the United States. In Japan, it 71 00:03:55,200 --> 00:03:57,960 Speaker 4: had an opening ceremony for its first fab. Here, they're 72 00:03:58,120 --> 00:04:00,200 Speaker 4: very far along. They were able to team up with 73 00:04:00,200 --> 00:04:04,560 Speaker 4: a domestic construction company called Kajema that moved very very quickly. 74 00:04:04,600 --> 00:04:07,280 Speaker 4: They hired seven thousand workers very quickly. In the United 75 00:04:07,280 --> 00:04:10,520 Speaker 4: States is almost the opposite. TSMC has already announced two 76 00:04:10,600 --> 00:04:13,720 Speaker 4: delays in their plans in Arizona. They've had problems with 77 00:04:13,920 --> 00:04:16,720 Speaker 4: unions there. The US government hasn't been quick to write 78 00:04:16,720 --> 00:04:19,080 Speaker 4: those checks to make sure that the money is getting out, 79 00:04:19,279 --> 00:04:22,040 Speaker 4: so that's really slowed down the process in the US. 80 00:04:22,360 --> 00:04:25,680 Speaker 4: TSMC has talked about this about some of the problems, 81 00:04:25,720 --> 00:04:27,720 Speaker 4: but it's happening very very slowly there. 82 00:04:28,520 --> 00:04:30,520 Speaker 3: And one of the other stories that I mentioned briefly 83 00:04:30,680 --> 00:04:33,960 Speaker 3: was China ready and another twenty seven billion dollars for 84 00:04:34,000 --> 00:04:36,800 Speaker 3: a chip fund that they'll call the Big Fund, And 85 00:04:37,200 --> 00:04:40,360 Speaker 3: we're curious about exactly where this money goes and also 86 00:04:41,040 --> 00:04:44,159 Speaker 3: how far behind is China in trying to get to 87 00:04:44,200 --> 00:04:46,880 Speaker 3: the advanced production levels that we see in Taiwan that 88 00:04:46,920 --> 00:04:50,320 Speaker 3: you've talked about and that Intel has aspired to for 89 00:04:50,360 --> 00:04:51,000 Speaker 3: all these years. 90 00:04:52,279 --> 00:04:56,600 Speaker 4: Yeah, well, China is really being driven by necessity at 91 00:04:56,600 --> 00:05:02,680 Speaker 4: this point. The US government has levied a number of 92 00:05:02,720 --> 00:05:07,240 Speaker 4: different restrictions on their technology companies and their ability to 93 00:05:07,360 --> 00:05:12,080 Speaker 4: get chips. In particular, a couple of years ago, the 94 00:05:12,120 --> 00:05:15,200 Speaker 4: Biden administration imposed a whole series of curbs on their 95 00:05:15,200 --> 00:05:19,040 Speaker 4: ability to buy AI artificial intelligence chips, as well as 96 00:05:19,080 --> 00:05:21,680 Speaker 4: chip making equipment to make the most advanced chips. So 97 00:05:21,720 --> 00:05:24,400 Speaker 4: what you're seeing in China right now is an all 98 00:05:24,480 --> 00:05:27,000 Speaker 4: out effort to try to build the foundation of an 99 00:05:27,040 --> 00:05:30,240 Speaker 4: industry that they can develop over the next few years. 100 00:05:31,120 --> 00:05:34,240 Speaker 4: As you mentioned, they're now looking to raise about twenty 101 00:05:34,320 --> 00:05:37,200 Speaker 4: seven billion dollars for a chip fund that will invest 102 00:05:37,240 --> 00:05:40,040 Speaker 4: in chip startups and chip companies. The formal name is 103 00:05:40,160 --> 00:05:44,440 Speaker 4: National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund. People in China just 104 00:05:44,480 --> 00:05:47,840 Speaker 4: call the big fund they've had. This is their third fund. 105 00:05:47,880 --> 00:05:50,279 Speaker 4: They've invested in a bunch of startups there, but they've 106 00:05:50,279 --> 00:05:52,440 Speaker 4: had a number of problems. I mean, one, they're trying 107 00:05:52,480 --> 00:05:56,960 Speaker 4: to imitate technology that already the Western companies have spent 108 00:05:57,040 --> 00:06:00,440 Speaker 4: a lot of time developing, have very very advanced equipment, 109 00:06:00,640 --> 00:06:02,800 Speaker 4: and there have been some corruption problems within the big 110 00:06:02,839 --> 00:06:05,719 Speaker 4: for the previous big funds also, which have slowed down 111 00:06:05,760 --> 00:06:08,240 Speaker 4: their efforts to build up the domestic chip industry. 112 00:06:09,960 --> 00:06:12,320 Speaker 2: Peter, it's always a pleasure. Yeah, good stuff. Thank you 113 00:06:12,360 --> 00:06:15,240 Speaker 2: so much for being with us. Peter Elstrom from Bloomberg News. 114 00:06:30,040 --> 00:06:33,840 Speaker 3: Well, let's get to our guest, Stephanie lyng CIO. It's 115 00:06:34,000 --> 00:06:37,400 Speaker 3: stashaway for a closer look at markets. So we've had 116 00:06:37,560 --> 00:06:40,240 Speaker 3: a week of NPC meetings and we're kind of trying 117 00:06:40,240 --> 00:06:43,560 Speaker 3: to weigh that up and see whether or not it's 118 00:06:43,680 --> 00:06:48,640 Speaker 3: positive for markets or not. Your thoughts at this stage, Stephanie. 119 00:06:48,880 --> 00:06:49,640 Speaker 5: Yes, good morning. 120 00:06:49,720 --> 00:06:53,640 Speaker 6: Indeed, we had the NPC was just quite anticipated, and 121 00:06:54,320 --> 00:06:56,000 Speaker 6: I mean we were all looking for kind of big 122 00:06:56,080 --> 00:06:59,200 Speaker 6: numbers coming out from me event. I think mostly if 123 00:06:59,200 --> 00:07:03,080 Speaker 6: I look kind of GDP targets, inflation targets, everything seems 124 00:07:03,080 --> 00:07:06,400 Speaker 6: to be quite in line with market expectations or our expectations. 125 00:07:07,279 --> 00:07:09,920 Speaker 6: For example, on a GDP growth of five percent, inflation 126 00:07:10,000 --> 00:07:13,480 Speaker 6: of three percent, that's kind of more or less kind 127 00:07:13,480 --> 00:07:16,480 Speaker 6: of in line with historical presidents and also what we're 128 00:07:16,480 --> 00:07:20,080 Speaker 6: looking for. However, I think the key question really for 129 00:07:20,200 --> 00:07:23,640 Speaker 6: markets and for investors now is that how are they 130 00:07:23,680 --> 00:07:25,920 Speaker 6: going to achieve these targets, and whether or not they 131 00:07:25,920 --> 00:07:28,720 Speaker 6: can actually achieve these targets by the end of the 132 00:07:28,800 --> 00:07:32,480 Speaker 6: year when the next NPC actually comes. I think mostly 133 00:07:32,600 --> 00:07:37,400 Speaker 6: the concern is on the inflation site, and if you 134 00:07:37,440 --> 00:07:39,960 Speaker 6: remember last year they also had a three percent inflation target, 135 00:07:41,440 --> 00:07:44,520 Speaker 6: they the economy of the government actually was not able 136 00:07:44,560 --> 00:07:45,160 Speaker 6: to achieve that. 137 00:07:45,360 --> 00:07:48,080 Speaker 5: And for the past year, I think. 138 00:07:48,080 --> 00:07:51,720 Speaker 6: While the world or most developed markets are kind of 139 00:07:51,840 --> 00:07:56,440 Speaker 6: concerned about inflation, China is actually on a deflation concern 140 00:07:56,560 --> 00:07:59,520 Speaker 6: and I think if you look at PPI and CPI, 141 00:08:00,080 --> 00:08:02,600 Speaker 6: these have been negative quite some time. Of course, we 142 00:08:03,040 --> 00:08:05,360 Speaker 6: just get the latest CPI which is positive, which is 143 00:08:05,360 --> 00:08:09,680 Speaker 6: a great kind of development, but PPI still seems to 144 00:08:09,720 --> 00:08:10,679 Speaker 6: be quite negative. 145 00:08:10,760 --> 00:08:13,800 Speaker 2: Yeah, I think the longest streak of deflation that we've 146 00:08:13,840 --> 00:08:16,920 Speaker 2: seen at the wholesale level since about twenty sixteen. Do 147 00:08:17,000 --> 00:08:19,280 Speaker 2: you think that the economy generally speaking, I hear what 148 00:08:19,320 --> 00:08:22,200 Speaker 2: you're saying about the growth target right around five percent, 149 00:08:22,480 --> 00:08:25,880 Speaker 2: maybe or you're doubtful that the government will achieve that. 150 00:08:26,200 --> 00:08:28,600 Speaker 2: But can you dispute the fact that there seems to 151 00:08:28,640 --> 00:08:32,320 Speaker 2: be this economic malaise threatening the overall economy. 152 00:08:34,320 --> 00:08:40,080 Speaker 6: Yeah, I think it's of course, it's partly structural with 153 00:08:40,400 --> 00:08:43,520 Speaker 6: kind of the clamp down or the property sector, which 154 00:08:43,520 --> 00:08:45,719 Speaker 6: has been a great driver of the economy in the 155 00:08:45,840 --> 00:08:49,640 Speaker 6: last two decades or so, but partially the kind of 156 00:08:49,720 --> 00:08:52,520 Speaker 6: economic downturn is cyclical as well. Right, if we look 157 00:08:52,600 --> 00:08:57,880 Speaker 6: at the global manufacturing indexes or the global manufacturing sector, 158 00:08:58,200 --> 00:09:00,160 Speaker 6: I mean those actually have been in a downturn for 159 00:09:00,240 --> 00:09:03,440 Speaker 6: the last kind of talk to eighteen months. We're starting 160 00:09:03,480 --> 00:09:06,480 Speaker 6: to see some signs of turning points. If you look 161 00:09:06,520 --> 00:09:11,199 Speaker 6: at the latest kind of PMI, manufacturing in vaccines coming 162 00:09:11,280 --> 00:09:13,720 Speaker 6: out from the US or even on a global basis, 163 00:09:13,920 --> 00:09:16,640 Speaker 6: I mean these have been turning around and are positive now. 164 00:09:16,720 --> 00:09:20,920 Speaker 6: So I mean that actually is a positive development for China. 165 00:09:20,960 --> 00:09:24,640 Speaker 6: Economy because a significant part of China is still supported 166 00:09:24,679 --> 00:09:25,720 Speaker 6: by exports. 167 00:09:26,360 --> 00:09:30,280 Speaker 3: Stephanie, are we maybe overplaying the slow down and downturn 168 00:09:30,360 --> 00:09:34,079 Speaker 3: in China anecdotally? Just talking to people coming back from 169 00:09:34,120 --> 00:09:36,560 Speaker 3: shen Zen Go for you know a lot of Hong 170 00:09:36,640 --> 00:09:38,959 Speaker 3: Kong people go for day trips and they talk about, 171 00:09:39,200 --> 00:09:41,800 Speaker 3: you know, the malls are booming that you know, the 172 00:09:42,480 --> 00:09:45,040 Speaker 3: buzz is there, people are out, the restaurants are packed. 173 00:09:45,040 --> 00:09:47,959 Speaker 3: You can't get into this restaurant because it's too full. 174 00:09:48,360 --> 00:09:51,000 Speaker 3: You know. It's a slightly different story that we see 175 00:09:51,040 --> 00:09:53,680 Speaker 3: from the big macro numbers, and I wonder how you 176 00:09:53,720 --> 00:09:54,360 Speaker 3: make sense of that. 177 00:09:55,559 --> 00:09:58,640 Speaker 6: Yes, indeed, I think it's a bit of a two 178 00:09:58,679 --> 00:10:01,600 Speaker 6: speed economy. Right if you look at the consumer data, 179 00:10:02,559 --> 00:10:05,720 Speaker 6: they have actually been been quite good. Right. It's if 180 00:10:05,760 --> 00:10:08,440 Speaker 6: if you look at, for example, the service PMI, it 181 00:10:08,480 --> 00:10:12,040 Speaker 6: has been an expansion while the manufacturing side has been 182 00:10:12,040 --> 00:10:15,800 Speaker 6: in a slump. So similar things are going on globally 183 00:10:15,880 --> 00:10:17,560 Speaker 6: as well. Right if you look at the US, I mean, 184 00:10:17,679 --> 00:10:19,880 Speaker 6: sut side of things are actually very very strong, while 185 00:10:19,960 --> 00:10:23,240 Speaker 6: manufacturing is also in a slump. So I think it's 186 00:10:23,240 --> 00:10:26,000 Speaker 6: not just just a China problem. But of course for 187 00:10:26,160 --> 00:10:31,080 Speaker 6: China because it's still heavily reliant on the manufacturing side, 188 00:10:31,120 --> 00:10:35,760 Speaker 6: heavily reliant on export, heavily reliant on investment rather than consumption, 189 00:10:36,400 --> 00:10:37,640 Speaker 6: which is the case in the US. 190 00:10:37,720 --> 00:10:39,240 Speaker 5: Therefore, I think if you look at kind of. 191 00:10:39,160 --> 00:10:43,480 Speaker 6: The overall economy, just the weight of things makes China 192 00:10:43,800 --> 00:10:48,960 Speaker 6: kind of I think, makes China's economy more formal vulnerable 193 00:10:49,040 --> 00:10:50,960 Speaker 6: to a global manufacturing slump. 194 00:10:51,320 --> 00:10:54,080 Speaker 2: So would you be putting money to work in markets 195 00:10:54,080 --> 00:10:55,040 Speaker 2: in China right now? 196 00:10:56,320 --> 00:10:59,600 Speaker 6: I think, I mean, it's definitely looking more interesting compared 197 00:10:59,720 --> 00:11:00,719 Speaker 6: with last year. 198 00:11:00,760 --> 00:11:01,280 Speaker 5: For example. 199 00:11:01,600 --> 00:11:04,280 Speaker 6: Of course, everybody knows that China is very, very cheap 200 00:11:04,360 --> 00:11:06,640 Speaker 6: right in terms of valuation. The problem is the lack 201 00:11:06,720 --> 00:11:11,160 Speaker 6: of a catalyst for economic upturn. I think Number one, 202 00:11:11,200 --> 00:11:16,040 Speaker 6: the government has been trying to stimulate the economy from 203 00:11:16,080 --> 00:11:20,200 Speaker 6: a kind of monetary fiscal perspective. Now, of course, there's 204 00:11:20,240 --> 00:11:24,000 Speaker 6: a question of how much is enough. And I think 205 00:11:24,640 --> 00:11:29,520 Speaker 6: if you look at kind of historical examples the Chinese government, 206 00:11:29,559 --> 00:11:32,760 Speaker 6: once they start kind of injecting liquidity you want to 207 00:11:32,800 --> 00:11:36,840 Speaker 6: start stimulating, They're not going to stop until the economy 208 00:11:36,840 --> 00:11:39,200 Speaker 6: actually turns around. So I think also if you look 209 00:11:39,240 --> 00:11:42,000 Speaker 6: at kind of the ability for the Chinese government to stimulate. 210 00:11:42,040 --> 00:11:46,600 Speaker 6: There is still potential. So I think the key is 211 00:11:46,640 --> 00:11:49,920 Speaker 6: still coming back to the global economy, whether or not 212 00:11:50,000 --> 00:11:53,400 Speaker 6: we see in recovery. And I think there are early 213 00:11:53,440 --> 00:11:55,120 Speaker 6: signs that we are seeing part of that. 214 00:11:55,440 --> 00:11:58,520 Speaker 3: Okay, Okay, Now, if we see some money come out 215 00:11:58,600 --> 00:12:01,880 Speaker 3: of the Japanese and in US markets, you know, which 216 00:12:01,920 --> 00:12:05,720 Speaker 3: some people think is inevitable given the highs that we've seen, 217 00:12:06,360 --> 00:12:09,320 Speaker 3: some of that money might go into China. But the 218 00:12:09,400 --> 00:12:12,160 Speaker 3: thing is that you hear kind of a downbeat picture 219 00:12:12,280 --> 00:12:15,560 Speaker 3: from investors about policy in China. They don't believe that 220 00:12:15,600 --> 00:12:18,800 Speaker 3: the policy is there to drive the private sector higher 221 00:12:18,800 --> 00:12:22,079 Speaker 3: over the coming years. Is the jury still out on that? 222 00:12:23,760 --> 00:12:24,000 Speaker 1: Yes? 223 00:12:24,880 --> 00:12:29,520 Speaker 6: I think the problem is that I guess once you 224 00:12:30,160 --> 00:12:34,240 Speaker 6: I guess once the confidence is diminished, is very very 225 00:12:34,240 --> 00:12:36,400 Speaker 6: hard to bring that back, right, And a lot of 226 00:12:36,440 --> 00:12:40,160 Speaker 6: these corporates are making decisions not on a kind of 227 00:12:40,200 --> 00:12:42,480 Speaker 6: one or two year basis, right, They're making decisions on 228 00:12:42,520 --> 00:12:45,840 Speaker 6: a ten year or even kind of much longer term basis. 229 00:12:46,480 --> 00:12:50,240 Speaker 6: And those investments are indeed, I very hard to bring back. 230 00:12:50,720 --> 00:12:53,240 Speaker 6: But if we look at kind of the market itself, 231 00:12:54,400 --> 00:12:58,520 Speaker 6: I mean investments money you are fast money globally are 232 00:12:58,600 --> 00:12:59,440 Speaker 6: much shorter term. 233 00:12:59,480 --> 00:13:01,120 Speaker 5: They're much kind of faster to react. 234 00:13:01,800 --> 00:13:04,360 Speaker 6: And I mentioned about kind of the cyclical problems and 235 00:13:04,400 --> 00:13:07,400 Speaker 6: the structural problems of China. I think if you have 236 00:13:07,520 --> 00:13:11,679 Speaker 6: the cyclical problems easing, there's still kind of a lot 237 00:13:11,720 --> 00:13:14,560 Speaker 6: of room for the market to improve, right given that 238 00:13:14,679 --> 00:13:18,720 Speaker 6: valuations are very cheap. So I do think that there 239 00:13:18,760 --> 00:13:20,520 Speaker 6: could be a kind of cyclic op turn. 240 00:13:20,559 --> 00:13:20,679 Speaker 1: Now. 241 00:13:20,720 --> 00:13:23,800 Speaker 6: Of course, we're in the structural issues to resolve, and 242 00:13:23,880 --> 00:13:27,840 Speaker 6: for a structural kind of tenure bull market to start 243 00:13:28,280 --> 00:13:30,080 Speaker 6: that the hurdle is actually a lot higher. 244 00:13:30,400 --> 00:13:32,400 Speaker 2: So we have two stories that are kind of interesting 245 00:13:32,440 --> 00:13:35,720 Speaker 2: today and they clash in a way. One is the 246 00:13:35,720 --> 00:13:39,760 Speaker 2: Biden administration wing some new sanctions on a few Chinese 247 00:13:39,800 --> 00:13:43,480 Speaker 2: tech companies, particularly within the realm of semiconductors. That's not new. 248 00:13:43,520 --> 00:13:47,360 Speaker 2: We know the administration has been focused on restraining China's 249 00:13:47,360 --> 00:13:50,280 Speaker 2: development on that front. At the same time, though, China 250 00:13:50,440 --> 00:13:52,160 Speaker 2: seems to be raising a lot more in the way 251 00:13:52,200 --> 00:13:56,439 Speaker 2: of capital to fund a chip fund that would essentially 252 00:13:56,880 --> 00:13:59,960 Speaker 2: be used for R and D purposes. Is it possible 253 00:14:00,120 --> 00:14:03,960 Speaker 2: for China to compensate for what is being withheld from 254 00:14:04,400 --> 00:14:06,080 Speaker 2: Western technology companies. 255 00:14:07,480 --> 00:14:11,360 Speaker 6: Yeah, I think that's kind of a tug of war 256 00:14:12,000 --> 00:14:16,839 Speaker 6: between US and China that's kind of started or accelerated 257 00:14:17,040 --> 00:14:19,640 Speaker 6: a few years ago. And I think this is one 258 00:14:19,680 --> 00:14:23,280 Speaker 6: of the structural problems that it's it's very, very hot 259 00:14:23,320 --> 00:14:27,840 Speaker 6: to see things reverting back to where it was, particularly 260 00:14:27,920 --> 00:14:31,880 Speaker 6: with the kind of the development chips and technology. Every 261 00:14:31,960 --> 00:14:35,440 Speaker 6: country or every kind of major power will try to 262 00:14:35,480 --> 00:14:38,080 Speaker 6: secure their own technology stack, and I mean China and 263 00:14:38,080 --> 00:14:41,760 Speaker 6: the US is no different. So I think, of course, 264 00:14:41,960 --> 00:14:46,040 Speaker 6: the US has the election this year, and the China 265 00:14:46,600 --> 00:14:50,560 Speaker 6: issue is top of concern or kind of like top 266 00:14:50,600 --> 00:14:54,280 Speaker 6: of a lot of kind of I. 267 00:14:54,200 --> 00:14:56,520 Speaker 3: Guess everybody wants to China. 268 00:14:56,680 --> 00:14:58,960 Speaker 5: Yeah, exactly, everybody wants to play that card. 269 00:15:00,080 --> 00:15:04,080 Speaker 6: And I think if let's say, if Trump gets kind 270 00:15:04,120 --> 00:15:07,240 Speaker 6: of into the office, there could be even more acceleration 271 00:15:07,480 --> 00:15:10,600 Speaker 6: in terms of the rhetoric or action against China. 272 00:15:10,680 --> 00:15:12,120 Speaker 5: So that is one big risk. 273 00:15:12,680 --> 00:15:15,880 Speaker 6: I think in terms of China's own development, it's they 274 00:15:15,920 --> 00:15:18,320 Speaker 6: will try to invest a lot, but I mean from 275 00:15:18,320 --> 00:15:21,280 Speaker 6: a technology point of view, there's still kind of several 276 00:15:21,360 --> 00:15:24,080 Speaker 6: years behind, and I think China will actually invest a 277 00:15:24,160 --> 00:15:28,320 Speaker 6: lot more into not probably not the top end, but 278 00:15:28,880 --> 00:15:30,920 Speaker 6: still if you look at kind of ship like where 279 00:15:30,960 --> 00:15:32,560 Speaker 6: chips are used, right, A lot of the chips are 280 00:15:32,600 --> 00:15:34,840 Speaker 6: used in auto, A lot of chips are used actually 281 00:15:34,880 --> 00:15:38,560 Speaker 6: in electronic vehicles. I mean those are areas actually where 282 00:15:38,640 --> 00:15:40,720 Speaker 6: China can excel. So I think that's where a lot 283 00:15:40,760 --> 00:15:41,720 Speaker 6: of investment will. 284 00:15:41,560 --> 00:15:44,960 Speaker 3: Grow, all right, Stephanie, Unfortunately out of time, I did 285 00:15:44,960 --> 00:15:47,240 Speaker 3: want to get your view on Japan whether or not 286 00:15:47,320 --> 00:15:50,960 Speaker 3: you're using a pogo stick to jump higher from forty 287 00:15:51,000 --> 00:15:54,720 Speaker 3: thousand or a bungee cord to pro blower levels, but 288 00:15:54,760 --> 00:15:56,720 Speaker 3: we'll save that for the next discussion. We love to 289 00:15:56,760 --> 00:15:59,280 Speaker 3: have you on the program, Thanks very much, Stephanie. Lung 290 00:15:59,280 --> 00:16:18,120 Speaker 3: there Cio, it's stash Away. Joining us on the line 291 00:16:18,200 --> 00:16:22,440 Speaker 3: for this next segment is Joy Young, head of product 292 00:16:22,480 --> 00:16:26,720 Speaker 3: management Market Vector Indexes. So, Joy, how do you feel 293 00:16:26,760 --> 00:16:29,320 Speaker 3: with markets at these levels? Here? We had a little 294 00:16:29,320 --> 00:16:32,120 Speaker 3: bit of a spooky day on Friday on Wall Street. 295 00:16:32,160 --> 00:16:36,920 Speaker 1: Your thoughts, Yeah, thank you. We had a very exciting 296 00:16:37,200 --> 00:16:41,160 Speaker 1: week last week with you know, several assets heading there 297 00:16:41,240 --> 00:16:43,480 Speaker 1: all time high, and I don't know if people still 298 00:16:43,520 --> 00:16:46,880 Speaker 1: remember we started Monday with Nvidia, you know, just with 299 00:16:47,000 --> 00:16:52,120 Speaker 1: great earnings announcement joining the two trillion dollar club, and 300 00:16:52,160 --> 00:16:56,560 Speaker 1: then we saw it pushing the SMP up and it's 301 00:16:56,560 --> 00:16:59,240 Speaker 1: not just the mag seven because we're seeing the equal 302 00:16:59,240 --> 00:17:01,920 Speaker 1: weighted as and P five hundred also hitting their all 303 00:17:01,960 --> 00:17:04,440 Speaker 1: time high. So yeah, they were going up, and then 304 00:17:04,560 --> 00:17:07,560 Speaker 1: it's not unexpected to see when we have these price 305 00:17:07,680 --> 00:17:10,840 Speaker 1: momentum that we're going to see some pullback in correction. 306 00:17:11,000 --> 00:17:13,159 Speaker 1: So that's what we see on you know, what we 307 00:17:13,200 --> 00:17:16,439 Speaker 1: saw on Friday. But you know, we're also seeing that 308 00:17:16,520 --> 00:17:19,119 Speaker 1: this all time high is spreading globally. You know, we 309 00:17:19,600 --> 00:17:21,480 Speaker 1: mentioned at the beginning of the program that you know, 310 00:17:21,600 --> 00:17:25,080 Speaker 1: Japanese markets are hitting their all time high, so you know, 311 00:17:25,160 --> 00:17:28,320 Speaker 1: we're seeing that, you know, there's now a signaling to 312 00:17:28,440 --> 00:17:31,120 Speaker 1: the potential end of the Bank of Japan and their 313 00:17:31,480 --> 00:17:35,680 Speaker 1: negative interest rate policy. In this in turn, we're seeing 314 00:17:35,720 --> 00:17:39,239 Speaker 1: the unraveling of the very popular carry trade, which is 315 00:17:39,280 --> 00:17:43,760 Speaker 1: now impacting the dollar. So with dollar a week, we're 316 00:17:43,760 --> 00:17:47,159 Speaker 1: seeing gold prices also breaking out of their range and 317 00:17:47,280 --> 00:17:48,480 Speaker 1: hitting their all time highs. 318 00:17:48,520 --> 00:17:50,879 Speaker 2: So with the record highs that we've been talking about 319 00:17:50,960 --> 00:17:53,280 Speaker 2: or you just highlighted in terms of equity trading, I'm 320 00:17:53,320 --> 00:17:56,040 Speaker 2: going to add to that list a bitcoin, which I 321 00:17:56,040 --> 00:17:58,760 Speaker 2: think broke above seventy grand for the first time last week. 322 00:17:59,240 --> 00:18:02,080 Speaker 2: And to kind of dovetail with the point you just 323 00:18:02,200 --> 00:18:06,640 Speaker 2: made there about the BOJ perhaps doing away with negative 324 00:18:06,720 --> 00:18:10,080 Speaker 2: rates here sometime soon, I doubt. I don't know, maybe 325 00:18:10,080 --> 00:18:12,360 Speaker 2: it's March, maybe it's April. But the question is one 326 00:18:12,400 --> 00:18:15,680 Speaker 2: of excess liquidity. Do we still have a certain level 327 00:18:15,720 --> 00:18:18,040 Speaker 2: of excess liquidity and global markets. 328 00:18:18,960 --> 00:18:22,800 Speaker 1: I think there is that people are careful on where 329 00:18:22,800 --> 00:18:26,480 Speaker 1: they're investing it. So I think, you know, we're seeing 330 00:18:26,480 --> 00:18:29,000 Speaker 1: this all time high and it's actually quite unusual to 331 00:18:29,040 --> 00:18:31,919 Speaker 1: see both risk on and risk off assets moving in 332 00:18:31,920 --> 00:18:34,919 Speaker 1: the same direction with so much uncertainty and quite a 333 00:18:34,920 --> 00:18:35,600 Speaker 1: lot of risk. 334 00:18:35,520 --> 00:18:36,240 Speaker 5: Still out there. 335 00:18:36,640 --> 00:18:40,160 Speaker 1: And you know, we know traditionally gold is a defensive 336 00:18:40,200 --> 00:18:43,760 Speaker 1: asset and it goes up when things are looking down. 337 00:18:44,640 --> 00:18:47,800 Speaker 1: But the equity markets are saying that the economy is 338 00:18:47,840 --> 00:18:51,480 Speaker 1: still looking pretty strong. So we also have like bitcoin 339 00:18:51,520 --> 00:18:55,280 Speaker 1: going up, as you know, a very volatile asset class, 340 00:18:55,280 --> 00:18:58,600 Speaker 1: and we're seeing that based on the trigger of there's 341 00:18:58,640 --> 00:19:01,960 Speaker 1: a lot of investors trying to, you know, allocate the 342 00:19:02,080 --> 00:19:07,040 Speaker 1: money into something that isn't correlated with other asset classes 343 00:19:07,119 --> 00:19:10,120 Speaker 1: because they just don't know where things may end up 344 00:19:10,160 --> 00:19:11,560 Speaker 1: in the next few months. 345 00:19:12,359 --> 00:19:14,920 Speaker 3: You mentioned Japan and I had a question for you. 346 00:19:15,720 --> 00:19:18,119 Speaker 3: I put a question earlier to a guest saying, you know, 347 00:19:18,160 --> 00:19:21,440 Speaker 3: if you do get a change in Boja policy, you're 348 00:19:21,440 --> 00:19:23,640 Speaker 3: going to probably see as stronger yin and that might 349 00:19:23,680 --> 00:19:25,720 Speaker 3: not be good for the stock market. But the flip 350 00:19:25,760 --> 00:19:28,800 Speaker 3: side of that, which I also I also think is 351 00:19:28,880 --> 00:19:31,600 Speaker 3: kind of interesting, is that you're going to get repatriation 352 00:19:31,760 --> 00:19:36,879 Speaker 3: of Japanese assets abroad, and as that comes back in, 353 00:19:37,480 --> 00:19:39,960 Speaker 3: you know, it's going to have to go somewhere. Does 354 00:19:39,960 --> 00:19:42,359 Speaker 3: it go into the bond market there or does it 355 00:19:42,359 --> 00:19:43,439 Speaker 3: go into the stock market. 356 00:19:45,119 --> 00:19:47,520 Speaker 1: I would think probably the stock market is looking pretty 357 00:19:47,520 --> 00:19:51,640 Speaker 1: good right now for Japan as well as emerging markets 358 00:19:51,640 --> 00:19:55,119 Speaker 1: in Asia, because they seem to have been undervalued given 359 00:19:55,720 --> 00:19:58,560 Speaker 1: the rest of global markets. So there are a lot 360 00:19:58,600 --> 00:20:02,880 Speaker 1: of opportunities, and maybe they will be thinking about how 361 00:20:02,880 --> 00:20:05,399 Speaker 1: to hedge the dollar and you know where they can 362 00:20:05,400 --> 00:20:07,440 Speaker 1: put it without being exposed to dollar. 363 00:20:07,960 --> 00:20:10,600 Speaker 2: So here's a question for you. We've been pondering this 364 00:20:11,320 --> 00:20:14,440 Speaker 2: on the program today. Are there similarities between what we 365 00:20:14,560 --> 00:20:17,080 Speaker 2: had in the equity market in the late nineteen nineties, 366 00:20:17,080 --> 00:20:19,719 Speaker 2: what many have called the dot com bubble, and what 367 00:20:19,760 --> 00:20:23,639 Speaker 2: we're seeing right now, particularly in tech that's related to 368 00:20:23,680 --> 00:20:24,680 Speaker 2: the AI trade. 369 00:20:26,840 --> 00:20:30,480 Speaker 1: Well, you know, looking at the data, you can always 370 00:20:30,560 --> 00:20:34,439 Speaker 1: draw similarities, but we don't know what's going to happen next. 371 00:20:34,560 --> 00:20:37,320 Speaker 1: I think, I think, yeah, A lot of people have 372 00:20:37,840 --> 00:20:45,000 Speaker 1: kind of called the similar similarity between Nvidia and you know, Cisco, right, 373 00:20:45,040 --> 00:20:49,200 Speaker 1: because these are like basically when you see some disruptive 374 00:20:49,600 --> 00:20:52,720 Speaker 1: tech take off, what you're seeing is first the money 375 00:20:52,760 --> 00:20:56,520 Speaker 1: piles in and the growth starts happening in the underlying infrastructure. 376 00:20:57,160 --> 00:21:00,760 Speaker 1: But you know, then you'll see, like some domin net players, 377 00:21:00,880 --> 00:21:04,680 Speaker 1: they will be competed away. Other players will come in 378 00:21:04,880 --> 00:21:07,560 Speaker 1: and try to eat away at that profit. And you know, 379 00:21:07,720 --> 00:21:12,480 Speaker 1: Nvidia has a strong mote, but we're seeing like competitors. 380 00:21:13,560 --> 00:21:18,040 Speaker 1: In fact, some of their clients, like Microsoft, Amazon, they're 381 00:21:18,080 --> 00:21:22,960 Speaker 1: also building their own design hardware into AI so that 382 00:21:23,000 --> 00:21:27,800 Speaker 1: they're not relying on just Nvidia. So as that, you know, 383 00:21:29,720 --> 00:21:33,000 Speaker 1: as we see the shift from kind of these infrastructure players, 384 00:21:33,080 --> 00:21:35,919 Speaker 1: you know, to adopters, you know, these are the players 385 00:21:35,920 --> 00:21:38,960 Speaker 1: that are going to be using the AI and that's 386 00:21:39,000 --> 00:21:42,720 Speaker 1: where the growth will also start to happen. So you 387 00:21:42,840 --> 00:21:45,200 Speaker 1: have to think about the life cycle of the thing 388 00:21:45,320 --> 00:21:50,040 Speaker 1: as well as you know, diversifying your bets on which 389 00:21:50,119 --> 00:21:51,280 Speaker 1: player is going to take off. 390 00:21:51,800 --> 00:21:54,119 Speaker 3: So Joy, could I at least get you to say that, 391 00:21:54,240 --> 00:21:58,040 Speaker 3: you know, we've got overblock conditions there, maybe not exactly 392 00:21:58,080 --> 00:22:01,560 Speaker 3: a bubble, but but over block conditions, and that some 393 00:22:01,600 --> 00:22:03,160 Speaker 3: sort of correction is nigh. 394 00:22:04,520 --> 00:22:09,840 Speaker 1: Well. I mean, I truly think AI is, you know, 395 00:22:09,960 --> 00:22:16,560 Speaker 1: really has the potential to deliver something really innovative and productive. 396 00:22:16,640 --> 00:22:20,280 Speaker 1: But not every company is going to participate in it. 397 00:22:20,400 --> 00:22:24,080 Speaker 1: So some people will overvalue some of these players, and 398 00:22:24,200 --> 00:22:26,200 Speaker 1: you know, that may be a bubble, but I think 399 00:22:26,400 --> 00:22:29,800 Speaker 1: over the long term we will see a trend to 400 00:22:29,840 --> 00:22:34,760 Speaker 1: capture some of the growth opportunities. What's really interesting for 401 00:22:34,880 --> 00:22:37,719 Speaker 1: us is we're also looking in the digital asset space 402 00:22:37,880 --> 00:22:42,800 Speaker 1: as a participant or a facilitator of AI because you know, 403 00:22:42,880 --> 00:22:45,280 Speaker 1: as we saw last week, there are a lot of 404 00:22:45,359 --> 00:22:49,280 Speaker 1: issues around AI that we're trying to resolve, such as 405 00:22:49,440 --> 00:22:53,320 Speaker 1: you know, copyright issues. You know, we saw some of 406 00:22:53,359 --> 00:22:58,199 Speaker 1: those controversies around imaging and also you know, Musk is 407 00:22:58,200 --> 00:23:04,520 Speaker 1: bringing a legal suit against open AI and digital assets, 408 00:23:04,640 --> 00:23:10,760 Speaker 1: you know, using blockchain and cryptography. These are technologies that 409 00:23:10,920 --> 00:23:17,040 Speaker 1: really already have resolved issues around transparency, immutability, or how 410 00:23:17,040 --> 00:23:20,240 Speaker 1: to define ownership properties so you know, we think that 411 00:23:22,800 --> 00:23:26,199 Speaker 1: digital assets, crypto assets will have a big, you know, 412 00:23:27,840 --> 00:23:31,080 Speaker 1: critical component to the growth and innovation. 413 00:23:31,200 --> 00:23:35,440 Speaker 2: In a moment ago, you were talking about how unusual 414 00:23:35,520 --> 00:23:38,280 Speaker 2: it is to see people going a long risk assets 415 00:23:38,359 --> 00:23:41,960 Speaker 2: and assets that are normally associated with being risk off. 416 00:23:42,000 --> 00:23:44,840 Speaker 2: And let's put US treasuries in the bundle on the ladder. 417 00:23:44,880 --> 00:23:46,320 Speaker 2: I mean, what do you make it the way the 418 00:23:46,359 --> 00:23:47,880 Speaker 2: bond market has been performing. 419 00:23:49,240 --> 00:23:52,560 Speaker 1: Yeah, I think and again I think you know, all 420 00:23:52,640 --> 00:23:55,959 Speaker 1: markets are just sitting in this range bound waiting for 421 00:23:56,080 --> 00:23:59,800 Speaker 1: the next piece of information, data or news. So this 422 00:24:00,000 --> 00:24:04,760 Speaker 1: week is quite quite critical with the CPI least, because 423 00:24:04,880 --> 00:24:08,640 Speaker 1: you know, that'll give everybody maybe a little bit more 424 00:24:08,720 --> 00:24:14,480 Speaker 1: insight into the direction of where we're headed with inflation 425 00:24:15,760 --> 00:24:20,440 Speaker 1: an interest rate. So the bond market, again, if you're 426 00:24:20,480 --> 00:24:23,399 Speaker 1: out on the uh, you know, I wouldn't want to 427 00:24:23,440 --> 00:24:25,719 Speaker 1: be on the long duration side of the bond market, 428 00:24:25,960 --> 00:24:28,640 Speaker 1: you know, but there's still some interesting uh. 429 00:24:30,119 --> 00:24:33,280 Speaker 3: If you get if you get an inflation print that 430 00:24:33,400 --> 00:24:35,760 Speaker 3: is kind of more similar to the PCE that we 431 00:24:35,920 --> 00:24:39,120 Speaker 3: got and you have growth remaining strong. I mean, that's 432 00:24:39,160 --> 00:24:42,320 Speaker 3: a ticket for risk assets to move back to the upside, 433 00:24:42,359 --> 00:24:42,679 Speaker 3: isn't it. 434 00:24:44,320 --> 00:24:49,560 Speaker 1: Yes, but as we've seen, like what, this data is 435 00:24:49,760 --> 00:24:54,920 Speaker 1: just still not really convincing, and people are reading different 436 00:24:54,960 --> 00:24:58,600 Speaker 1: parts of the data to kind of support whatever underlying 437 00:24:58,640 --> 00:25:02,280 Speaker 1: bias they have. And and I think that's why we're 438 00:25:02,320 --> 00:25:06,200 Speaker 1: seeing both gold and bitcoin, as well as the equity 439 00:25:06,880 --> 00:25:10,120 Speaker 1: and bond markets moving, you know, towards the same direction. 440 00:25:11,520 --> 00:25:15,000 Speaker 2: So you sound a little cautious, Joy, thirty seconds, how 441 00:25:15,000 --> 00:25:17,280 Speaker 2: are you hedged these days? 442 00:25:18,320 --> 00:25:21,879 Speaker 1: We? You know, uh, I always look at gold. Gold 443 00:25:22,160 --> 00:25:25,280 Speaker 1: is really it, you know, has broken out of its range. 444 00:25:25,280 --> 00:25:27,960 Speaker 1: So I think gold and gold miners are going to 445 00:25:28,000 --> 00:25:33,160 Speaker 1: be interesting because gold miners have been undervalued, and certainly 446 00:25:35,359 --> 00:25:37,560 Speaker 1: bitcoin is on a rally. But there's a lot of 447 00:25:37,600 --> 00:25:40,119 Speaker 1: other you know, there's a lot of other future acts. 448 00:25:40,680 --> 00:25:43,000 Speaker 3: All right, Joy, thanks very much for joining us. Joe Young, 449 00:25:43,080 --> 00:25:45,600 Speaker 3: head of product Management, Market Vector Indexes. 450 00:25:51,760 --> 00:25:54,679 Speaker 2: This has been the Bloomberg Daybreak Asia podcast, bringing you 451 00:25:54,760 --> 00:25:57,840 Speaker 2: the stories making news and moving markets in the Asia Pacific. 452 00:25:58,359 --> 00:26:01,480 Speaker 2: Visit the Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to get more 453 00:26:01,520 --> 00:26:05,119 Speaker 2: episodes of this and other shows from Bloomberg. Subscribe to 454 00:26:05,160 --> 00:26:08,960 Speaker 2: the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen, 455 00:26:09,040 --> 00:26:12,119 Speaker 2: and always on Bloomberg Radio. The Bloomberg Terminal and the 456 00:26:12,160 --> 00:26:13,240 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Business app