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Speaker 1: The volume The Colin Cowherd Podcast brought to you by

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Speaker 1: Fan Duel. It's never been easier to play fantasy on

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Speaker 1: Fan Duel. Whether you love basketball, golf, soccer, or any

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Speaker 1: fantasy sport, there is a contest for every fan. Fan

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Speaker 1: Duel more ways to win. Hi, everybody, It's Thursday morning,

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Speaker 1: a day early with fake questions, real answers. This is

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Speaker 1: a segment where there's things I want to talk about

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Speaker 1: but don't want to wait for you to ask me

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Speaker 1: the question. So here we go. Dear Colin urban Meyer

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Speaker 1: just named Trevor Lawrence the jag starting quarterback. Why the

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Speaker 1: hell did it take so long? Well, I've got sourcing

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Speaker 1: on this. Urban Meyer has been the great culture creator

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Speaker 1: in college. He did not want to hand anybody, including

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Speaker 1: Trevor Lawrence, the job. You've got to earn every position,

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Speaker 1: even if you're a number one pick or a starter.

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Speaker 1: Last year, let's ay cretic culture. But after back to

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Speaker 1: back uninspiring offensive performances by Daryl Bevell, the offensive coordinator,

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Speaker 1: I'm told urban Meyer decided, listen, we got to create identity.

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Speaker 1: No more first team snaps taken away from Trevor Lawrence.

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Speaker 1: Remember this is crucial. This is a rebuilding process, so

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Speaker 1: the winds are going to be rare, but they are

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Speaker 1: out there, and in the first month three of the

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Speaker 1: best opportunities for wins present themselves. They opened with Houston,

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Speaker 1: an absolute grease fire. They get a host Denver and

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Speaker 1: Arizona perceived third or fourth place teams in that Jacksonville Heat.

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Speaker 1: Then they face rebuilding Cincinnati Urban Meyer I'm told looked

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Speaker 1: at the schedule and thought, this is not a ten

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Speaker 1: win team. It may be a six win team. Three

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Speaker 1: of those wins could come in the Jacksonville Heat or

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Speaker 1: against the Bengals or Houston rebuilding teams. They didn't want

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Speaker 1: to waste any more time not getting Trevor Lawrence first

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Speaker 1: team snaps. Dear Colin, you notice how people say the

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Speaker 1: preseason doesn't matter, but then when a quarterback has a

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Speaker 1: big game in the preseason, they act like there's proof

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Speaker 1: that he's going to be great. Doesn't that drive you bonkers? No,

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Speaker 1: it actually doesn't. Everything in life matters a little. I'll

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Speaker 1: give an example. What's happening with restaurants in America. There's

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Speaker 1: these things called restaurant groups. You can go to any city, Nashville, Austin, Texas.

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Speaker 1: Any city of size and arbor Michigan, and there'll be

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Speaker 1: a couple of restaurant groups where they own seven or

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Speaker 1: eight restaurants. And these restaurant groups do a lot of research.

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Speaker 1: It's called situational influence. They do testing on customer weight,

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Speaker 1: time tolerance, employee present tolerance, little tiny things. You customers

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Speaker 1: don't think about that. Restaurant groups do surveys on every

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Speaker 1: thirty seconds counts when you go to eat, are waiters hovering?

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Speaker 1: Does it bother you? How long do you have to

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Speaker 1: wait before you're seated? That stuff matters. You don't think

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Speaker 1: it matters. I'm just gonna go Darline and I are

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Speaker 1: gonna go get a chided dog at Derwener Schnitzel. It's

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Speaker 1: not the way it works, Cowboy. Just like in the preseason,

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Speaker 1: there's a reason Miami and Baltimore look well coached because

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Speaker 1: they are. There's a reason Houston in Philadelphia don't because

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Speaker 1: they're not. I watch season for little tells, just like

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Speaker 1: in poker, and there are plenty of them. Dear Colin,

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Speaker 1: you see the Patriots just traded Sony Michelle to the

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Speaker 1: Rams for a couple of picks who do you think

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Speaker 1: won the trade? I don't. We have no idea who

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Speaker 1: won the trade. When I sell a house and you

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Speaker 1: buy my house, I'm not worried about the winner. I

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Speaker 1: want it out, you want it in. That's what we

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Speaker 1: have with NFL trades. Listen, if you watch the Patriots,

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Speaker 1: the perception as they won the trade. If you watch

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Speaker 1: the Patriots, what is the big knock right now on

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Speaker 1: New England's roster? Wouldn't we all agree they don't have playmakers.

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Speaker 1: They've been accumulating picks for twenty years and they have

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Speaker 1: no playmakers. Meaning accumulating fourth, fifth, sixth, and seventh round

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Speaker 1: picks doesn't land playmakers. I don't know if accumulating draft

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Speaker 1: picks works. I know this. The Rams are a Super

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Speaker 1: Bowl potential team and they needed a running back and

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Speaker 1: they got one. Now, the perception is Cam Acres is

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Speaker 1: a star and Sony Michelle is kind of a sea

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Speaker 1: level back. All you have to do is go to

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Speaker 1: the data. With the same coach and the same offensive line,

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Speaker 1: cam Acres average virtually the same yards per carry as

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Speaker 1: Darryl Henderson and Malcolm Brown, somewhere between four point one

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Speaker 1: and four point four yards a carry. Cam Akers is good.

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Speaker 1: Sony Michelle is good. There isn't a huge gap. If

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Speaker 1: Acres was a star, he'd be averaging more than point

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Speaker 1: two yards per carry, more than Henderson. Dear Colin, what's

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Speaker 1: the one NFL game this season you can't wait to see? Actually,

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Speaker 1: it's Week one, Cleveland Browns at the Chiefs. Number one.

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Speaker 1: Cleveland ended the season playing very well. They have no

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Speaker 1: history of dealing with success. Can't wait to watch Kansas

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Speaker 1: City end of the season getting humiliated. Watch how focused

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Speaker 1: and driven Kansas City is in Week one. Andy Reid

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Speaker 1: is also the best September football coach in the last

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Speaker 1: fifteen years in the NFL. Also, Cleveland's got eight new

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Speaker 1: starters on defense. I think eventually that secondary is going

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Speaker 1: to be excellent. But now in the preseason, nobody plays starters,

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Speaker 1: so their first real test is against the best quarterback,

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Speaker 1: the best tight end, and the best play designer in

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Speaker 1: the National Football League. I think Cleveland's in trouble, but

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Speaker 1: I can't wait to watch. Dear Colin. There are people

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Speaker 1: out there who keep complaining that you don't talk baseball

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Speaker 1: when the Yankees and Red Sox are both making a

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Speaker 1: push for the postseason. The Dodgers are red hot? Why

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Speaker 1: don't you listen to them? Don't you know how to

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Speaker 1: host a sports talk show is a very fantastic question.

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Speaker 1: I have been struggling with this sports talk show thing

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Speaker 1: for years, and you've finally unveiled the problem. Listen. Outside

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Speaker 1: of the NFL, every sport in America has a season.

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Speaker 1: College basketball season is three weeks in March. Don't blame

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Speaker 1: me for college basketball's erosion. The one and done culture

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Speaker 1: has heard it. The season for the NBA is May June,

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Speaker 1: couple of weeks in July. Once the NFL Draft ends,

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Speaker 1: I go heavy for ten weeks into the NBA. That's

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Speaker 1: their season. The baseball season is about six to seven

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Speaker 1: weeks in late September and early October. Yes, I know

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Speaker 1: the season's much longer than that, but don't blame me

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Speaker 1: because the sport for twenty years hasn't marketed their stars,

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Speaker 1: has started World Series games and Playoff games at eight

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Speaker 1: thirty Eastern, basically eliminating kids who have to go to

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Speaker 1: school from watching. Don't blame me because the sport has

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Speaker 1: one hundred and sixty two games in an increasingly frenetic

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Speaker 1: and caffeinated world. They have no urgency. The way to

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Speaker 1: get on my show is urgency. I'll talk about a

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Speaker 1: UFC fight, a golf tournament if it matters. An outside

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Speaker 1: of the NFL, nothing really matters outside of those little

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Speaker 1: weeks or moments of playoff Action Baseball. I watch it

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Speaker 1: all the time. It's not a good topic outside of

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Speaker 1: seven weeks in September and October. And believe it or not,

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Speaker 1: I have data to prove it. All right, Let's bring

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Speaker 1: in Chad Milman, the CCO of the Action Network Chief

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Speaker 1: Content Officer CCO Chief Content Officer. That's a title that

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Speaker 1: didn't even exist like four hours ago. We've made that

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Speaker 1: up literally in America five years ago, if you'd just

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Speaker 1: said I am chief Content Officer, you'd be like, you're fired.

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Speaker 1: You're making shit up. We can't hire you here. You're

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Speaker 1: making stuff up on the interview. No, I was a

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Speaker 1: chief content officer of my last company. There's no such

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Speaker 1: thing as content now. It's like one of the highest

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Speaker 1: paying jobs in America. I do content. Come on in,

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Speaker 1: we need you. Our content stinks. Make it better, all right, Melman,

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Speaker 1: So I have what I believe. I do not believe

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Speaker 1: in locks, but I'm gonna throw I don't bet preseason games,

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Speaker 1: but I'm gonna throw a tasty one that chip. I

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Speaker 1: am not a fan of Daryl Bevil or Brian Schottenheimer retreads,

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Speaker 1: so not a shock. That is Urban tries to mesh

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Speaker 1: urban Meyer tries to mesh his college system with a

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Speaker 1: pro system. There's no identity. They're struggling with it. So

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Speaker 1: they make a decision in house this week. What I

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Speaker 1: was hold is, if you look at their schedule, four

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Speaker 1: of the most winnable games are their first four Houston's offal.

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Speaker 1: They get Denver and Arizona, average teams in that Jacksonville heat,

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Speaker 1: and then they get Cincinnati and urban Meyer looks at

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Speaker 1: it and says, okay, no more. Sharon snaps, we gotta

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Speaker 1: get this. September could be our best month. And they're

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Speaker 1: Jaguars at the Cowboys. What do you make? So look

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Speaker 1: at the line right now on fan duel, and I

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Speaker 1: want your initial interpretation, Jags at the Cowboys? What is

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Speaker 1: your initial interpretation? Tell the audience the line and you're

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Speaker 1: feeling on it. So this is a preseason game. It's

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Speaker 1: the Jaguars at Dallas plus three and a half. The

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Speaker 1: Cowboys are three and a half point underdogs in this

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Speaker 1: game because of what you just said and what's interesting. Now,

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Speaker 1: let me let me go big picture. Then I'll go

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Speaker 1: a little picture. Big picture. Three preseason games, right, used

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Speaker 1: to getting four preseason games. Three preseason games. The third

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Speaker 1: preseason game used to be the game where betters are

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Speaker 1: coming in at their heaviest because you know you're going

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Speaker 1: to get the starters for the majority of the game.

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Speaker 1: That's when they're going to play their most snaps. Now

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Speaker 1: people are trying to figure out, Okay, what am I

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Speaker 1: doing with this third preseason game. He saw the Bears

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Speaker 1: are going to be playing justin fields, basically saying Andy

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Speaker 1: Dalton's going to be QB one when the season begins.

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Speaker 1: What you're talking about with Trevor Lawrence. They basically said, Okay,

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Speaker 1: he's gonna be the starter. We want to get him

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Speaker 1: as much play as possible. Dak Prescott, who knows because

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Speaker 1: he's been injured, and people are saying, Okay, he's finally

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Speaker 1: starting to look Okay, I don't disagree with you. The

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Speaker 1: line is, it's telling you Jacksonville's plan. Trevor Lawrence a lot.

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Speaker 1: The Cowboys are one of the weakest backup quarterback situational

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Speaker 1: teams in the league. Jacksonville wants to win that game.

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Speaker 1: That line tells me Jacksonville's plan starters. Here's the thing

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Speaker 1: you're right from a fan perspective, is this is where

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Speaker 1: you are and where you have always been as a

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Speaker 1: better You are the conduit. You're like the guy who

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Speaker 1: knows enough to understand what the line is telling me,

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Speaker 1: but not the guy who recognizes that there's no value

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Speaker 1: in betting the line anymore. Because I'm not going to

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Speaker 1: bet the Jags as three and a half point favorites

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Speaker 1: on the road against the Cowboys because the bookmakers have

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Speaker 1: already told me they've taken all the opportunity and the

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Speaker 1: value out of that line. If the line was at pick,

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Speaker 1: if the line was at Jabs plus one, then I

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Speaker 1: might have taken it. But it's Cowboys plus three and

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Speaker 1: a half. That's telling me everything I need to know.

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Speaker 1: You're one hundred percent right. It's the bookmakers saying, we

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Speaker 1: believe the Jags are going to be start playing their starters.

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Speaker 1: They're the better team in this game. But if you

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Speaker 1: believe the Jags are the better team in this game,

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Speaker 1: and then you have to put you have to lay

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Speaker 1: four at three and a half points. I don't want

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Speaker 1: to make that bet because there's no value and there's

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Speaker 1: no opportunity. The ROI is going to be so much

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Speaker 1: smaller than if I look for something else. So I

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Speaker 1: agree with all of your premise, except I don't agree

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Speaker 1: on the bet because I would not make it. One

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Speaker 1: of the things I always love about betting on football,

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Speaker 1: I'm always finding new players or game props that I like.

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Speaker 1: If you love the game, it's easy, and that's what's

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Speaker 1: cool about FanDuel Sportsbook. You can combine these props with

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Speaker 1: other bets from the same game to score an even

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Speaker 1: bigger payout the same game parlay. You can place future

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Speaker 1: bets on an upcoming college football and an NFL season.

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Speaker 1: You can combine traditional bets with different props. There are

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Speaker 1: future bets out there, like I taken the over on

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Speaker 1: the Browns and Chargers win totals. Same game parlay is

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Speaker 1: just one of the reasons I signed a deal with FanDuel.

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Speaker 1: It's easy use you got live betting, friends can use it.

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Speaker 1: My friends love betting on FanDuel Sports Book. It's America's

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Speaker 1: so you said. My position in the betting world is

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Speaker 1: say that again for the audience, because I have you

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Speaker 1: are you know so much about betting, and you know

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Speaker 1: enough to recognize that when the line, you know enough

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Speaker 1: to recognize how to interpret the line and what it

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Speaker 1: means from a bookmaker's perspective. But then you go ahead

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Speaker 1: and do exactly what the public would do, which is

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Speaker 1: bett it because you think, okay, the jackbars of playing

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Speaker 1: the starters, where is it professional? Better? Wouldn't bet this

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Speaker 1: game because the line, the value is all gone. See.

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Speaker 1: I consider myself in England, I would be I'm a crumpet.

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Speaker 1: The only I am the middleman in American betting. What

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Speaker 1: you're saying is so I feel I'm like in England

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Speaker 1: the crumpet. There's the royal family, which has nothing in

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Speaker 1: common with the average English family except the crumpet. The

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Speaker 1: royal family eats a crumpet, probably with caviar on it,

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Speaker 1: and the public eats crumpets, probably with peanut butter and jelly.

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Speaker 1: So I am the crumpet. I'm with you, man, You

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Speaker 1: I would argue, I would argue that you have figured

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Speaker 1: out this is your gift. You have figured out how

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Speaker 1: to represent the sports fan in every conversation, except you

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Speaker 1: are probably ten to fifteen percent smarter than every sports fan,

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Speaker 1: maybe even more, and you think about it more and

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Speaker 1: you think about the most interesting way to convey your opinion.

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Speaker 1: I'm I'm ten percent dumber than the average sharp. That's

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Speaker 1: where I'm a crumpet. That is true. But the beauty

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Speaker 1: is you've known for years, for years, everybody likes betting.

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Speaker 1: I know I like betting. I know it's interesting, but

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Speaker 1: it's not so interesting to me. I want to spend

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Speaker 1: all of my time talking about it. Yeah, I want

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Speaker 1: to know enough about it to convey it to the

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Speaker 1: audience and understand that it's really important for them to know,

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Speaker 1: and that there are ten percent of the fans who

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Speaker 1: are going to be really into it, and we'll have

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Speaker 1: a real good time listening to me talk about betting.

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Speaker 1: All right, let me let's go to Week one. So

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Speaker 1: the teams I'm underselling this year, and I get why

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Speaker 1: I'm under selling them. I have a belief that if

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Speaker 1: you're a well run organization and the season ends poorly,

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Speaker 1: it ignites a focus in the off season. Patriots, Steelers,

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Speaker 1: Kansas City. The Steelers are humiliated last game. The Chiefs

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Speaker 1: are humiliated last game, and the Patriots had a crappy

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Speaker 1: last month. Well run and well coached organizations that end

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Speaker 1: poorly that instills a real focus and willfulness in the

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Speaker 1: off season. So I generally like underdogs if you can

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Speaker 1: give me a competent quarterback and points, I like points.

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Speaker 1: But Brown's at Chiefs minus six in a Week one,

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Speaker 1: I like Kansas City. I have eight new starters for Cleveland.

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Speaker 1: There's something going on culturally in the NFL. Nobody's playing starters.

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Speaker 1: So the first real game for those eight starters is

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Speaker 1: not Week three of the preseason in the NFL, it's

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Speaker 1: Week one of the regular season. Against the best play

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Speaker 1: designer at the best quarterback, the best tight end, the

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Speaker 1: fastest receiver. Kansas City. I think Kansas City ended the

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Speaker 1: season being humiliated. I think, and by the way, Andy

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Speaker 1: Reads the best September football coach in the last twenty

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Speaker 1: years in the league. That's the rare I'm going to

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Speaker 1: swallow six. I know Cleveland's probably a playoff team, but Steelers, Patriots, Chiefs,

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Speaker 1: well run teams and poorly creates a real focus on

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Speaker 1: the off season. Watch all three start very quickly. That's

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Speaker 1: one of my favorite Week one bets. Not my favorite,

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Speaker 1: but one of them. Your thoughts, I believe, I am

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Speaker 1: with you. I agree with your theory that teams that

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Speaker 1: have a history of being talented and that bring their

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Speaker 1: coaching staff with them from one year to the next,

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Speaker 1: all three of those and that end the year badly

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Speaker 1: find ways to rebound. I believe it. With the Chiefs,

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Speaker 1: their rebound isn't from not making the playoffs and making

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Speaker 1: the playoffs. That rebound is from kind of getting embarrassed

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Speaker 1: in the Super Bowl. And I would argue they got

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Speaker 1: embarrassed because their offensive line was in shambles and Patrick

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Speaker 1: Mahomes was injured. This is a juggernaut of a team

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Speaker 1: and they've only gotten significantly better at the offensive line.

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Speaker 1: I agree the Browns. Great value on the Browns. The

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Speaker 1: Browns are one of those teams if you're buying super

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Speaker 1: Bow future value. They were in the low twenties and

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Speaker 1: they've moved up into the mid teens. Right from twenty

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Speaker 1: two to one to sixteen to one Kansas City at

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Speaker 1: home less than a touchdown early in the year. When

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Speaker 1: I believe I've heard you talk about this on your show.

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Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes is unstoppable early in the year. It's not

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Speaker 1: their cartoon numbers. They're literally Alabama against out of conference games.

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Speaker 1: It's insane exactly, And so like they might not lose

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Speaker 1: a game until Week ten or eleven, whenever they play

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Speaker 1: the Cowboys. That might be their first big challenge if

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Speaker 1: we think the Cowboys can become something of a challenge, right,

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Speaker 1: So completely agree with you on that game. Let me

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Speaker 1: say this about the Patriots and the Steelers. I am

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Speaker 1: a bigger believer in the Patriots right now than I

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Speaker 1: am in the Steelers. The biggest challenge for me because

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Speaker 1: I do believe they've improved in every area. I think

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Speaker 1: getting guys back on defense from who sat out last

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Speaker 1: year from COVID is really important for them. I think

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Speaker 1: they've made improvements. I know everyone laughs about how many

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Speaker 1: tight ends they signed, but I think that actually just

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Speaker 1: plays to the strength of their offense. I think the

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Speaker 1: quarterback situation is now a challenge for them. Cam Newton

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Speaker 1: being out, what he's deciding to do or not do

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Speaker 1: with the vaccination, how that's going to impact things going forward.

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Speaker 1: And then all this talk every day every day. Mac

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Speaker 1: Jones twenty one or twenty three against the Giant starters

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Speaker 1: in practice, he's the greatest thing in the world. You

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Speaker 1: just talked about Patrick Mahone's putting up cartoon numbers like

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Speaker 1: he's Alabama. Mac Jones put up cartoon numbers with two

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Speaker 1: top ten wide receivers, a Heisman Trophy winning receiver, and

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Speaker 1: against teams that were debilitated decimated by COVID. I am

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Speaker 1: not at all, in any way a believer in mac

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Speaker 1: Jones yet. So that's what worries me about the Patriots.

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Speaker 1: All right, let's go back to Week one. This is

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Speaker 1: a game. I feel like it's a trap game. Bears

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Speaker 1: at Rams, Rams minus seven in Week one. This feels

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Speaker 1: trappy to me. First of all, Matt stafford first game

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Speaker 1: hasn't taken a snap cam Aker's gone Sony Michelle in.

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Speaker 1: But this is a fairly complex offense. Sony Michelle's not

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Speaker 1: going to be a factor. This is not going to

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Speaker 1: be a dynamic Week one or two offense. Okay, they

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Speaker 1: lost Malcolm Brown to the Dolphins, Cam Akers, and now

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Speaker 1: Darryl Henderson's hurt, so this is going to be a

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Speaker 1: somewhat limited for two week offense. Also with the Bears

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Speaker 1: and Andy Dalton. If you go back to last year

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Speaker 1: with Andy Dalton, and he's always been as good as

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Speaker 1: his surrounding cast. He was a Pro bowler in a

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Speaker 1: playoff quarterback in Cincinnati. If you go to his last

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Speaker 1: seven games last year, remember he had a concussion he

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Speaker 1: didn't get preseason, So let's let's not count every gaming played.

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Speaker 1: Let's go to his last seven. His numbers were better

359
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Speaker 1: than Russell Wilson. They were with there at Carr. Don't

360
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Speaker 1: kid yourself, Andy Dalton week one. He's always been pretty learned.

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Speaker 1: He picked up Dallas' system very quickly. I don't think

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Speaker 1: this Rams team is going to have a lot of

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Speaker 1: offensive symmetry early. I would take Chicago plus seven. That

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Speaker 1: feels trappy to me. Well, if you can get Chicago

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Speaker 1: at seven and a half, I like it even more.

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Speaker 1: But look, obviously I am somewhat biased in this because

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Speaker 1: I love the Bears to death, but I also agree

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Speaker 1: with you, and I think that one of the challenges

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Speaker 1: for Los Angeles goes back to what a keep to

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Speaker 1: Leeb said on your podcast right after the trade. You

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Speaker 1: said to him, what do NFL players think of Matthew

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Speaker 1: Stafford going to the Rams? A keep to Leib said,

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Speaker 1: Matthew Stafford, Like, there just isn't that sort of awe

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Speaker 1: from players in the way the media is portraying the

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Speaker 1: addition of Matthew Stafford to the Rams right, And so

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Speaker 1: I think there is a ton for him to prove

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Speaker 1: in this scenario. As much as I hate Andy Dalton

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Speaker 1: and I think it's a joke that the Bears signed him,

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Speaker 1: and I think it's a joke that they've sort of

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Speaker 1: consistently said, Okay, he's QB one, he's QB one. I

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Speaker 1: think the reason he's QB one is because the worst

382
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Speaker 1: thing in the world you can do right now is

383
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Speaker 1: put a rookie quarterback three inches from Aaron Donald in

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Speaker 1: his first game ever. I totally agree. And I don't

385
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Speaker 1: like the Bears line. I don't like their all line,

386
00:24:42,640 --> 00:24:45,159
Speaker 1: and the Bears all line is terrible. Like they drafted

387
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Speaker 1: a guy to be the new left tackle and immediately

388
00:24:48,359 --> 00:24:50,399
Speaker 1: he's injured and is never getting on the field and

389
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Speaker 1: might be out for most of the years. So I

390
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Speaker 1: think you've got to give Andy Dalton the ball. The thing,

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Speaker 1: the reason I like the bed is because of the defense.

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Speaker 1: I think the Bears defense is actually markedly im over

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Speaker 1: last year, and so I like the bat. I'm gonna

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00:25:05,000 --> 00:25:10,480
Speaker 1: look on Fando the offensive rookie of the year. Some

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Speaker 1: numbers here to throw at you. Okay, I'm gonna throw

396
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Speaker 1: Nausey Harris plus nine hundred. Here's why, Okay, I think

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Speaker 1: the Steelers. First of all, they drafted two offensive linemen.

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Speaker 1: They have a history of solving their problems quickly, they

399
00:25:27,920 --> 00:25:33,280
Speaker 1: really do. Unlike the Packers, they are never afraid to

400
00:25:33,320 --> 00:25:35,840
Speaker 1: pull a big trade or spend money on free agency.

401
00:25:36,400 --> 00:25:39,320
Speaker 1: When they have an issue, like the back of their secondary,

402
00:25:39,520 --> 00:25:42,760
Speaker 1: they engineer a trade from making Fitzpatrick. They've always had

403
00:25:42,800 --> 00:25:47,280
Speaker 1: a keen eye for personnel problems. Aside, they know personnel

404
00:25:48,240 --> 00:25:52,200
Speaker 1: offensive line was a real issue last year. They go

405
00:25:52,240 --> 00:25:54,919
Speaker 1: out and draft two offensive linemen, and according to PFF,

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00:25:55,080 --> 00:26:02,080
Speaker 1: they have graded very highly within this system when you

407
00:26:02,119 --> 00:26:06,800
Speaker 1: consider I think their urgency on creating a running game,

408
00:26:08,000 --> 00:26:12,120
Speaker 1: Big Ben having his best offseason, their ability to solve

409
00:26:12,440 --> 00:26:16,720
Speaker 1: problems quickly. Najy Harris is not a big home run hitter,

410
00:26:17,720 --> 00:26:20,880
Speaker 1: but I feel like they're just frankly going to make

411
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Speaker 1: this work. They are going to make Najy Harris work,

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Speaker 1: and like Alabama, it's going to be an eighteen twenty

413
00:26:28,440 --> 00:26:31,960
Speaker 1: carry Sunday. That's going to be the menu for him.

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Speaker 1: I think, Najy Harris, we always point to quarterbacks. Some

415
00:26:36,760 --> 00:26:40,800
Speaker 1: of these quarterbacks like Trey Lance, aren't playing much, or

416
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Speaker 1: like Trevor Lawrence, or on bad teams. Najy Harris at

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Speaker 1: plus nine hundred feels like a decent bet to me

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Speaker 1: your thoughts. Let me be a little nitpicky on what

419
00:26:50,760 --> 00:26:59,440
Speaker 1: you said, Naji Harris will not make spectacular place. Very

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00:26:59,440 --> 00:27:02,480
Speaker 1: good chance that we're going to pull so much of

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Speaker 1: the podcast together in this answer, Very good chance. The

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00:27:05,320 --> 00:27:11,600
Speaker 1: Steelers are the third best team in their division, behind

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Speaker 1: the Ravens and the Browns. So while nine to one

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00:27:16,000 --> 00:27:19,080
Speaker 1: plus nine hundred, nine to one is great value, totally

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00:27:19,119 --> 00:27:21,760
Speaker 1: agree with it. I don't think he's going to be

426
00:27:21,800 --> 00:27:27,639
Speaker 1: in the position to wow the voters, whereas someone like

427
00:27:27,760 --> 00:27:32,200
Speaker 1: Mac Jones, who's at ten to one very well, maybe

428
00:27:32,240 --> 00:27:34,480
Speaker 1: in the position to wow the voters. And while I

429
00:27:34,960 --> 00:27:37,919
Speaker 1: just said, I'm not a believer, sometimes you make bets

430
00:27:37,920 --> 00:27:42,280
Speaker 1: on the futures. Those are about value and flyers, right,

431
00:27:42,640 --> 00:27:45,640
Speaker 1: you sprinkle, you sprinkle your future bets sort of all

432
00:27:45,680 --> 00:27:47,520
Speaker 1: over the map. You take a ten to one here,

433
00:27:47,600 --> 00:27:49,040
Speaker 1: you can take a nine to one here, and by

434
00:27:49,040 --> 00:27:50,600
Speaker 1: the way, you can do both. You don't have to

435
00:27:50,600 --> 00:27:52,919
Speaker 1: do one or the other. You can do fifty bucks

436
00:27:52,920 --> 00:27:55,280
Speaker 1: on Nagie Harris and one hundred bucks on Mac Jones

437
00:27:55,680 --> 00:27:58,000
Speaker 1: and you might turn out in a great position. Right,

438
00:27:58,040 --> 00:28:00,920
Speaker 1: I've got like nine futures bets to win the Super Bowl.

439
00:28:02,720 --> 00:28:05,000
Speaker 1: I like Mac Jones better if you're making a choice,

440
00:28:05,400 --> 00:28:07,639
Speaker 1: because there's a very good chance he is in a

441
00:28:07,680 --> 00:28:11,840
Speaker 1: position to be in a glamour spot with a team

442
00:28:11,880 --> 00:28:14,720
Speaker 1: that gets a lot of attention, a team that could

443
00:28:14,800 --> 00:28:18,040
Speaker 1: compete for first place in that division if there is

444
00:28:18,080 --> 00:28:21,000
Speaker 1: some regression, which I expect from the Bills, so I

445
00:28:21,040 --> 00:28:22,440
Speaker 1: know you want to get in there. So to me,

446
00:28:23,119 --> 00:28:25,000
Speaker 1: I feel like I'd rather take a flyer and a

447
00:28:25,000 --> 00:28:26,880
Speaker 1: guy's a little bit longer who's gonna have a chance

448
00:28:26,880 --> 00:28:29,480
Speaker 1: to wow voters a little bit more than a guy

449
00:28:29,520 --> 00:28:31,560
Speaker 1: like Nagie Harris who's going to be in a sort

450
00:28:31,560 --> 00:28:34,120
Speaker 1: of grinded out system for the team that I don't

451
00:28:34,119 --> 00:28:37,600
Speaker 1: think will compete. All right, let me give you another one. Okay,

452
00:28:38,600 --> 00:28:42,520
Speaker 1: Fandals NFL Comeback Player of the Year Carson Wentz plus

453
00:28:42,560 --> 00:28:49,680
Speaker 1: one thousand done. Do you want my takeaway, that's a

454
00:28:49,680 --> 00:28:53,600
Speaker 1: good bet. Well, the emergence of Pittman and Jonathan Taylor

455
00:28:53,840 --> 00:28:56,920
Speaker 1: have betters caught up to that. I think Jonathan Taylor

456
00:28:57,000 --> 00:29:00,400
Speaker 1: became a star. You go back to that Buffalo game.

457
00:29:01,120 --> 00:29:06,000
Speaker 1: The Colts were a tough Buffalo struggled getting them off

458
00:29:06,000 --> 00:29:10,200
Speaker 1: the field. This is what's great about betting, and this

459
00:29:10,280 --> 00:29:15,640
Speaker 1: is where wise guys separate themselves from people who don't

460
00:29:15,720 --> 00:29:20,240
Speaker 1: do this as regularly. They look inside the numbers, right,

461
00:29:20,360 --> 00:29:25,320
Speaker 1: they think about, all right, it wasn't just Buffalo beat Indianapolis.

462
00:29:26,200 --> 00:29:29,560
Speaker 1: It was holy crap. Indianapolis should have won that game,

463
00:29:29,640 --> 00:29:32,680
Speaker 1: and if not for a couple of weird plays, Indianapolis

464
00:29:32,720 --> 00:29:34,800
Speaker 1: is moving on in the playoffs and Buffalo is not.

465
00:29:34,920 --> 00:29:38,160
Speaker 1: And Buffalo is not making me to the AFC title game.

466
00:29:38,320 --> 00:29:41,640
Speaker 1: Buffalo is a team that sort of underperformed and didn't

467
00:29:41,680 --> 00:29:43,640
Speaker 1: live up to expectations when it got to the playoffs.

468
00:29:44,080 --> 00:29:46,640
Speaker 1: The game is so minute, The moments in the game

469
00:29:46,720 --> 00:29:50,760
Speaker 1: that matter are so happened so frequently, and they get

470
00:29:50,760 --> 00:29:55,000
Speaker 1: forgotten after the game is over, except by the betters

471
00:29:55,000 --> 00:29:58,640
Speaker 1: who watch all this film. Carson Wentz, if he is

472
00:29:58,680 --> 00:30:01,000
Speaker 1: able to play Week one and have a full season,

473
00:30:01,680 --> 00:30:04,200
Speaker 1: is primed to be the comeback player of the year

474
00:30:04,520 --> 00:30:06,840
Speaker 1: because so many betters believe the Colts. If you look

475
00:30:06,840 --> 00:30:11,360
Speaker 1: at the double digit win totals, the Colts are at

476
00:30:11,400 --> 00:30:13,800
Speaker 1: ten and a half. They're behind Kansas City, They're behind

477
00:30:13,840 --> 00:30:16,400
Speaker 1: Tampa Bay, they're behind Green Bay, they're behind Baltimore. Right,

478
00:30:17,040 --> 00:30:19,320
Speaker 1: they're at ten and a half. I guarantee you the

479
00:30:19,320 --> 00:30:22,200
Speaker 1: biggest liability is on the Colts because every wise guy

480
00:30:22,280 --> 00:30:23,880
Speaker 1: believes the Colts are going to be one of those

481
00:30:23,920 --> 00:30:31,120
Speaker 1: teams if Carson Wentz is playing that can completely overperform. Okay,

482
00:30:31,480 --> 00:30:34,600
Speaker 1: by the way, for the audience, Chad Millman my friend

483
00:30:34,600 --> 00:30:38,400
Speaker 1: at the Action Network ce CEO, Chief Content Officer, a

484
00:30:38,520 --> 00:30:40,280
Speaker 1: job that did not even exist five years ago in

485
00:30:40,320 --> 00:30:42,680
Speaker 1: the world, and now it's the best job everybody wants

486
00:30:42,720 --> 00:30:44,640
Speaker 1: in the world, right, Like it's ridiculous. Everybody wants to

487
00:30:44,640 --> 00:30:48,080
Speaker 1: be a chief content guy. So from this point forward,

488
00:30:48,920 --> 00:30:53,080
Speaker 1: Chad will be my Friday podcast. Now this week it's Thursday,

489
00:30:53,080 --> 00:30:55,440
Speaker 1: I'm going to Chicago for the weekend, but Chad will

490
00:30:55,480 --> 00:30:58,320
Speaker 1: be next twenty weeks so the Action Network he will be.

491
00:30:58,440 --> 00:31:02,280
Speaker 1: We will make our picks. So I know same here

492
00:31:02,280 --> 00:31:04,320
Speaker 1: I feel really I already have three of my first

493
00:31:05,360 --> 00:31:08,080
Speaker 1: three picks, I cannot wait to hear them, and I

494
00:31:08,120 --> 00:31:10,840
Speaker 1: cannot wait to pick them apart and see your reaction.

495
00:31:10,920 --> 00:31:14,720
Speaker 1: There's there's no better reaction when you are told you

496
00:31:14,760 --> 00:31:16,800
Speaker 1: are wrong and given a reason that you are wrong

497
00:31:16,880 --> 00:31:21,960
Speaker 1: that you actually like, Yeah, you know, wrong is my identity.

498
00:31:22,520 --> 00:31:32,440
Speaker 1: I'm okay. So random question before we go. If because

499
00:31:32,440 --> 00:31:35,920
Speaker 1: I went to Vegas last weekend and minimum lost three

500
00:31:36,000 --> 00:31:38,480
Speaker 1: years off my life, I knew that didn't eat drink.

501
00:31:39,240 --> 00:31:42,840
Speaker 1: If there was a tote board, you don't know how

502
00:31:42,840 --> 00:31:46,080
Speaker 1: long you're going to live. But if I there was

503
00:31:46,120 --> 00:31:48,440
Speaker 1: a study this week, every hot dog uee you lose

504
00:31:48,520 --> 00:31:50,800
Speaker 1: forty five minutes of your life. And there was a

505
00:31:50,880 --> 00:31:56,920
Speaker 1: tote board on minuses you drink. You have nights with

506
00:31:56,960 --> 00:32:00,240
Speaker 1: three cocktails or more, you'll lose six days. There was

507
00:32:00,240 --> 00:32:03,880
Speaker 1: a top board and I'll just throw this at you

508
00:32:05,560 --> 00:32:09,560
Speaker 1: alcohol and it said it was going to take three

509
00:32:09,680 --> 00:32:13,400
Speaker 1: years off your life if you drank regularly. Would you

510
00:32:13,400 --> 00:32:18,200
Speaker 1: stop drinking? Well, would it be three years I'm gonna

511
00:32:18,240 --> 00:32:21,320
Speaker 1: make it to eighty instead of eighty three? Yeah? Probably no,

512
00:32:21,760 --> 00:32:23,719
Speaker 1: If I'm going to make it too, I would keep

513
00:32:23,760 --> 00:32:27,680
Speaker 1: drinking then, because the greatness from eight to eighty three.

514
00:32:27,720 --> 00:32:30,040
Speaker 1: I think there's diminishing returns at that point. If you're

515
00:32:30,040 --> 00:32:34,280
Speaker 1: telling me I'm sixty and I'm going to be done

516
00:32:34,280 --> 00:32:37,560
Speaker 1: in fifty seven, I'd probably stopped drinking, because you know,

517
00:32:37,640 --> 00:32:40,600
Speaker 1: those are important years. I wouldn't stop eating hot dogs, though.

518
00:32:40,920 --> 00:32:44,160
Speaker 1: Like to me, listen, I grew up in Chicago, right,

519
00:32:44,560 --> 00:32:47,360
Speaker 1: and I had a hot dog cart when I was

520
00:32:47,440 --> 00:32:49,680
Speaker 1: in high school. It was a job. I pushed it

521
00:32:49,680 --> 00:32:53,719
Speaker 1: around my town and I would make hot dogs. I

522
00:32:53,800 --> 00:32:55,800
Speaker 1: was once at the World Series for the Cubs and

523
00:32:55,880 --> 00:32:58,000
Speaker 1: I was making a hot dog and the guy next

524
00:32:58,000 --> 00:33:00,920
Speaker 1: to me said, that is like a work of art.

525
00:33:00,960 --> 00:33:03,400
Speaker 1: And it was almost like if someone no one's giving

526
00:33:03,440 --> 00:33:05,440
Speaker 1: me as good a compliment to be complimented on the

527
00:33:05,480 --> 00:33:08,360
Speaker 1: hot dog you make at Wrigley Field, Buy a fellow

528
00:33:08,440 --> 00:33:11,800
Speaker 1: Chicago in. It's a gift. Right. I would give up

529
00:33:11,840 --> 00:33:16,360
Speaker 1: alcohol before I gave up hot dogs. Oh jeez, I

530
00:33:16,400 --> 00:33:20,400
Speaker 1: couldn't do that. I'm trying to think, you know, I

531
00:33:20,480 --> 00:33:22,760
Speaker 1: gave up I had. I saw a nutritionist like seven

532
00:33:22,840 --> 00:33:25,800
Speaker 1: eight years ago because my stomach wasn't right, and my

533
00:33:25,840 --> 00:33:28,960
Speaker 1: sister had a little stomach issue in her life. And

534
00:33:29,000 --> 00:33:30,840
Speaker 1: I'm kind of neurotic on that stuff. So I went

535
00:33:30,880 --> 00:33:32,600
Speaker 1: and I had to give up dairy, and I was

536
00:33:32,680 --> 00:33:35,960
Speaker 1: eating like four Greek yogurs a day. I went cold turkey.

537
00:33:36,120 --> 00:33:38,520
Speaker 1: I've never had any dairy since, maybe maybe a bite

538
00:33:38,520 --> 00:33:43,280
Speaker 1: of ice cream five times a year. I think coffee

539
00:33:43,720 --> 00:33:47,560
Speaker 1: and dark chocolate are the only two things I can't

540
00:33:47,560 --> 00:33:49,239
Speaker 1: give up. I have a piece of dark chocolate every

541
00:33:49,320 --> 00:33:51,200
Speaker 1: day in my life. I have coffee every day in

542
00:33:51,240 --> 00:33:56,240
Speaker 1: my life. That's it. Seriously, I'm a good quitter. I

543
00:33:56,600 --> 00:34:02,280
Speaker 1: must have every day at three o'clock, seven to ten

544
00:34:02,840 --> 00:34:11,200
Speaker 1: dark chocolate covered espresso beans. Oh, seriously, honestly, it's so good.

545
00:34:11,560 --> 00:34:15,200
Speaker 1: Oh last week, last week, I came, I went down

546
00:34:15,200 --> 00:34:19,280
Speaker 1: to the kitchen, opened the cupboard. The chocolate covered espresso

547
00:34:19,320 --> 00:34:21,600
Speaker 1: beans were gone, and I said to my wife, where

548
00:34:21,640 --> 00:34:23,799
Speaker 1: did they go? She goes, nobody's eating them. I'm like,

549
00:34:24,000 --> 00:34:26,520
Speaker 1: I'm eating them. I'm just eating seven to ten a day.

550
00:34:26,600 --> 00:34:29,600
Speaker 1: That's all I need. She goes, you are such a

551
00:34:29,640 --> 00:34:32,319
Speaker 1: fucking freak, and she just walked out of the room.

552
00:34:32,440 --> 00:34:34,200
Speaker 1: I'm like, that's that's what I need. That's my fix.

553
00:34:34,239 --> 00:34:36,560
Speaker 1: At three o'clock in the afternoon. The combination of the

554
00:34:36,640 --> 00:34:42,560
Speaker 1: dark chocolate and the espresso perfect. It literally perfect. Outside

555
00:34:42,560 --> 00:34:47,160
Speaker 1: of that, I'm not good at doing stuff, but I'm

556
00:34:47,200 --> 00:34:50,680
Speaker 1: great at quittings, always have been. I'm not like, if

557
00:34:50,680 --> 00:34:52,799
Speaker 1: you give me, you've got to do this to get

558
00:34:52,840 --> 00:34:57,319
Speaker 1: this half ascid, But if you just say you're gonna die? What?

559
00:34:57,960 --> 00:35:01,520
Speaker 1: This is the beauty of cow heard right now, I'm

560
00:35:01,560 --> 00:35:06,040
Speaker 1: a regular guy who's great at quitting things. Except I've

561
00:35:06,080 --> 00:35:08,759
Speaker 1: got a podcast network that's blowing up. I've got one

562
00:35:08,800 --> 00:35:12,439
Speaker 1: of the most successful radio careers in audio history. I'm

563
00:35:12,480 --> 00:35:16,400
Speaker 1: on a national television show. Oh come on, I mean you,

564
00:35:16,480 --> 00:35:21,480
Speaker 1: come on, you, come on, listen whatever you know. I

565
00:35:21,520 --> 00:35:23,440
Speaker 1: don't want to talk about me. What do you think

566
00:35:23,480 --> 00:35:27,680
Speaker 1: of me? Let's talk about you? My favorite joke. Let's

567
00:35:27,719 --> 00:35:29,640
Speaker 1: talk about you. What do you think of me? All right,

568
00:35:29,680 --> 00:35:31,840
Speaker 1: I'm done? All right, Melman. So I'm going to Chicago

569
00:35:31,880 --> 00:35:33,960
Speaker 1: this weekend. Oh, I'm going to a couple of good restaurants.

570
00:35:34,600 --> 00:35:36,880
Speaker 1: I shouldn't say this publicly. I'm going to r L

571
00:35:37,080 --> 00:35:38,520
Speaker 1: one of the night. I'm there for like three days.

572
00:35:38,719 --> 00:35:43,520
Speaker 1: R L Y. Yeah, fantastic. I'm going to I can't

573
00:35:43,560 --> 00:35:46,640
Speaker 1: say the other one. You know what, Tell me how fair?

574
00:35:46,760 --> 00:35:50,120
Speaker 1: Text me, text me where you're going? You know what

575
00:35:50,160 --> 00:35:54,279
Speaker 1: I love about Chicago. This sounds weird. Every time I

576
00:35:54,320 --> 00:35:57,279
Speaker 1: go to Chicago with my wife, it's a it's a

577
00:35:57,560 --> 00:36:04,040
Speaker 1: sexy town. So it's especially if you go during like

578
00:36:04,360 --> 00:36:08,040
Speaker 1: May through September, because it's a little bit lighter, longer.

579
00:36:08,600 --> 00:36:11,840
Speaker 1: There's a great vibe. You can walk along the beach.

580
00:36:12,080 --> 00:36:16,360
Speaker 1: I completely agree with. Look, I love the city to death.

581
00:36:16,760 --> 00:36:19,560
Speaker 1: When I go there with my wife, she gets all

582
00:36:19,640 --> 00:36:23,200
Speaker 1: dulled up. There's something about Chicago with her, she just

583
00:36:23,280 --> 00:36:28,520
Speaker 1: puts on. The effort is just exceptional. You stay in

584
00:36:28,520 --> 00:36:32,440
Speaker 1: a nice hotel, you stay downtown, you get you're walkable

585
00:36:32,480 --> 00:36:35,600
Speaker 1: to everything, and and the most beautiful people. Like on

586
00:36:35,640 --> 00:36:38,120
Speaker 1: the West Coast, beautiful people pick a lot of different

587
00:36:38,120 --> 00:36:41,000
Speaker 1: places East Coast, same thing in the Midwest. It's like

588
00:36:41,040 --> 00:36:44,000
Speaker 1: all the beautiful people go to Chicago. It's the best

589
00:36:44,080 --> 00:36:49,000
Speaker 1: looking people. People are good looking in Chicago. And so

590
00:36:49,320 --> 00:36:53,040
Speaker 1: my wife's around it, it's almost like she's just it's

591
00:36:53,080 --> 00:36:57,440
Speaker 1: the vibe. I like when I go to Chicago, good

592
00:36:57,440 --> 00:37:01,800
Speaker 1: things happen to me. Well, listen, there is in Chicago.

593
00:37:01,920 --> 00:37:07,200
Speaker 1: There is an area of the Gold Coast known as

594
00:37:05,719 --> 00:37:10,080
Speaker 1: the Triangle. Oh yeah, let me tell you something. I

595
00:37:10,120 --> 00:37:12,400
Speaker 1: got four hundred blue pills. I'm taken on the plane.

596
00:37:12,440 --> 00:37:16,000
Speaker 1: I can't wait. Then. Then, by the way, I know

597
00:37:16,160 --> 00:37:20,640
Speaker 1: exactly where you're gonna be, all right, moment could seeing you?

598
00:37:21,000 --> 00:37:25,959
Speaker 1: All right, brother, I'll to you later, all right. Listen

599
00:37:26,000 --> 00:37:30,440
Speaker 1: to the volume sports on YouTube, Twitter, Instagram, rate review, subscribe,

600
00:37:30,440 --> 00:38:03,720
Speaker 1: good stuff talk soon. The volume